WorldWideScience

Sample records for global improvement scale

  1. Global hydrobelts: improved reporting scale for water-related issues?

    Meybeck, M.; Kummu, M.; Dürr, H. H.

    2012-08-01

    Questions related to water such as its availability, water needs or stress, or management, are mapped at various resolutions at the global scale. They are reported at many scales, mostly along political or continental boundaries. As such, they ignore the fundamental heterogeneity of the hydroclimate and the natural boundaries of the river basins. Here, we describe the continental landmasses according to eight global-scale hydrobelts strictly limited by river basins, defined at a 30' (0.5°) resolution. The belts were defined and delineated, based primarily on the annual average temperature (T) and runoff (q), to maximise interbelt differences and minimise intrabelt variability. The belts were further divided into 29 hydroregions based on continental limits. This new global puzzle defines homogeneous and near-contiguous entities with similar hydrological and thermal regimes, glacial and postglacial basin histories, endorheism distribution and sensitivity to climate variations. The Mid-Latitude, Dry and Subtropical belts have northern and southern analogues and a general symmetry can be observed for T and q between them. The Boreal and Equatorial belts are unique. The hydroregions (median size 4.7 Mkm2) contrast strongly, with the average q ranging between 6 and 1393 mm yr-1 and the average T between -9.7 and +26.3 °C. Unlike the hydroclimate, the population density between the North and South belts and between the continents varies greatly, resulting in pronounced differences between the belts with analogues in both hemispheres. The population density ranges from 0.7 to 0.8 p km-2 for the North American Boreal and some Australian hydroregions to 280 p km-2 for the Asian part of the Northern Mid-Latitude belt. The combination of population densities and hydroclimate features results in very specific expressions of water-related characteristics in each of the 29 hydroregions. Our initial tests suggest that hydrobelt and hydroregion divisions are often more

  2. The improved Clinical Global Impression Scale (iCGI: development and validation in depression

    Kadouri Alane

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Clinical Global Impression scale (CGI is frequently used in medical care and clinical research because of its face validity and practicability. This study proposes to improve the reliability of the Clinical Global Impression (CGI scale in depressive disorders by the use of a semi-standardized interview, a new response format, and a Delphi procedure. Methods Thirty patients hospitalised for a major depressive episode were filmed at T1 (first week in hospital and at T2 (2 weeks later during a 5' specific interview. The Hamilton Depressive Rating Scale and the Symptom Check List were also rated. Eleven psychiatrists rated these videos using either the usual CGI response format or an improved response format, with or without a Delphi procedure. Results The new response format slightly improved (but not significantly the interrater agreement, the Delphi procedure did not. The best results were obtained when ratings by 4 independent raters were averaged. In this situation, intraclass correlation coefficients were about 0.9. Conclusion The Clinical Global Impression is a useful approach in psychiatry since it apprehends patients in their entirety. This study shows that it is possible to quantify such impressions with a high level of interrater agreement.

  3. How Can the Evidence from Global Large-scale Clinical Trials for Cardiovascular Diseases be Improved?

    Sawata, Hiroshi; Tsutani, Kiichiro

    2011-06-29

    Clinical investigations are important for obtaining evidence to improve medical treatment. Large-scale clinical trials with thousands of participants are particularly important for this purpose in cardiovascular diseases. Conducting large-scale clinical trials entails high research costs. This study sought to investigate global trends in large-scale clinical trials in cardiovascular diseases. We searched for trials using clinicaltrials.gov (URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/) using the key words 'cardio' and 'event' in all fields on 10 April, 2010. We then selected trials with 300 or more participants examining cardiovascular diseases. The search revealed 344 trials that met our criteria. Of 344 trials, 71% were randomized controlled trials, 15% involved more than 10,000 participants, and 59% were funded by industry. In RCTs whose results were disclosed, 55% of industry-funded trials and 25% of non-industry funded trials reported statistically significant superiority over control (p = 0.012, 2-sided Fisher's exact test). Our findings highlighted concerns regarding potential bias related to funding sources, and that researchers should be aware of the importance of trial information disclosures and conflicts of interest. We should keep considering management and training regarding information disclosures and conflicts of interest for researchers. This could lead to better clinical evidence and further improvements in the development of medical treatment worldwide.

  4. How Can the Evidence from Global Large-scale Clinical Trials for Cardiovascular Diseases be Improved?

    Tsutani Kiichiro

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinical investigations are important for obtaining evidence to improve medical treatment. Large-scale clinical trials with thousands of participants are particularly important for this purpose in cardiovascular diseases. Conducting large-scale clinical trials entails high research costs. This study sought to investigate global trends in large-scale clinical trials in cardiovascular diseases. Findings We searched for trials using clinicaltrials.gov (URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ using the key words 'cardio' and 'event' in all fields on 10 April, 2010. We then selected trials with 300 or more participants examining cardiovascular diseases. The search revealed 344 trials that met our criteria. Of 344 trials, 71% were randomized controlled trials, 15% involved more than 10,000 participants, and 59% were funded by industry. In RCTs whose results were disclosed, 55% of industry-funded trials and 25% of non-industry funded trials reported statistically significant superiority over control (p = 0.012, 2-sided Fisher's exact test. Conclusions Our findings highlighted concerns regarding potential bias related to funding sources, and that researchers should be aware of the importance of trial information disclosures and conflicts of interest. We should keep considering management and training regarding information disclosures and conflicts of interest for researchers. This could lead to better clinical evidence and further improvements in the development of medical treatment worldwide.

  5. The endoscopy Global Rating Scale – Canada: Development and implementation of a quality improvement tool

    MacIntosh, Donald; Dubé, Catherine; Hollingworth, Roger; van Zanten, Sander Veldhuyzen; Daniels, Sandra; Ghattas, George

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Increasing use of gastrointestinal endoscopy, particularly for colorectal cancer screening, and increasing emphasis on health care quality highlight the need for endoscopy facilities to review the quality of the service they offer. OBJECTIVE: To adapt the United Kingdom Global Rating Scale (UK-GRS) to develop a web-based and patient-centred tool to assess and improve the quality of endoscopy services provided. METHODS: Based on feedback from 22 sites across Canada that completed the UK endoscopy GRS, and integrating results of the Canadian consensus on safety and quality indicators in endoscopy and other Canadian consensus reports, a working group of endoscopists experienced with the GRS developed the GRS-Canada (GRS-C). RESULTS: The GRS-C mirrors the two dimensions (clinical quality and quality of the patient experience) and 12 patient-centred items of the UK-GRS, but was modified to apply to Canadian health care infrastructure, language and current practice. Each item is assessed by a yes/no response to eight to 12 statements that are divided into levels graded D (basic) through A (advanced). A core team consisting of a booking clerk, charge nurse and the physician responsible for the unit is recommended to complete the GRS-C twice yearly. CONCLUSION: The GRS-C is intended to improve endoscopic services in Canada by providing endoscopy units with a straightforward process to review the quality of the service they provide. PMID:23472242

  6. The endoscopy Global Rating Scale-Canada: development and implementation of a quality improvement tool.

    MacIntosh, Donald; Dubé, Catherine; Hollingworth, Roger; Veldhuyzen van Zanten, Sander; Daniels, Sandra; Ghattas, George

    2013-02-01

    Increasing use of gastrointestinal endoscopy, particularly for colorectal cancer screening, and increasing emphasis on health care quality highlight the need for endoscopy facilities to review the quality of the service they offer. To adapt the United Kingdom Global Rating Scale (UK-GRS) to develop a web-based and patient-centred tool to assess and improve the quality of endoscopy services provided. Based on feedback from 22 sites across Canada that completed the UK endoscopy GRS, and integrating results of the Canadian consensus on safety and quality indicators in endoscopy and other Canadian consensus reports, a working group of endoscopists experienced with the GRS developed the GRS-Canada (GRS-C). The GRS-C mirrors the two dimensions (clinical quality and quality of the patient experience) and 12 patient-centred items of the UK-GRS, but was modified to apply to Canadian health care infrastructure, language and current practice. Each item is assessed by a yes⁄no response to eight to 12 statements that are divided into levels graded D (basic) through A (advanced). A core team consisting of a booking clerk, charge nurse and the physician responsible for the unit is recommended to complete the GRS-C twice yearly. The GRS-C is intended to improve endoscopic services in Canada by providing endoscopy units with a straightforward process to review the quality of the service they provide.

  7. Transforming Global Health by Improving the Science of Scale-Up

    Kruk, Margaret E.; Yamey, Gavin; Angell, Sonia Y.; Beith, Alix; Cotlear, Daniel; Guanais, Frederico; Jacobs, Lisa; Saxenian, Helen; Victora, Cesar; Goosby, Eric

    2016-01-01

    In its report Global Health 2035, the Commission on Investing in Health proposed that health investments can reduce mortality in nearly all low- and middle-income countries to very low levels, thereby averting 10 million deaths per year from 2035 onward. Many of these gains could be achieved through scale-up of existing technologies and health services. A key instrument to close this gap is policy and implementation research (PIR) that aims to produce generalizable evidence on what works to i...

  8. Transforming Global Health by Improving the Science of Scale-Up.

    Margaret E Kruk

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In its report Global Health 2035, the Commission on Investing in Health proposed that health investments can reduce mortality in nearly all low- and middle-income countries to very low levels, thereby averting 10 million deaths per year from 2035 onward. Many of these gains could be achieved through scale-up of existing technologies and health services. A key instrument to close this gap is policy and implementation research (PIR that aims to produce generalizable evidence on what works to implement successful interventions at scale. Rigorously designed PIR promotes global learning and local accountability. Much greater national and global investments in PIR capacity will be required to enable the scaling of effective approaches and to prevent the recycling of failed ideas. Sample questions for the PIR research agenda include how to close the gap in the delivery of essential services to the poor, which population interventions for non-communicable diseases are most applicable in different contexts, and how to engage non-state actors in equitable provision of health services in the context of universal health coverage.

  9. Improving Water Resources Management on Global and Region Scales - Evaluating Strategies for Water Futures with the IIASA's Community Water Model

    Burek, P.; Kahil, T.; Satoh, Y.; Greve, P.; Byers, E.; Langan, S.; Wada, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Half of the planet's population is severely impacted by severe water issues including absent or unreliable water supply, sanitation, poor water quality, unmitigated floods and droughts, and degraded water environments. In recent years, global water security has been highlighted not only by the science community but also by business leaders as one of the greatest threats to sustainable human development for different generations. How can we ensure the well-being of people and ecosystems with limited water, technology and financial resources? To evaluate this, IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS) is identifying a portfolios of robust and cost-effective options across different economic sectors including agriculture, energy, manufacturing, households, and environment and ecosystems. Options to increase water supply and accessibility are evaluated together with water demand management and water governance options. To test these solution-portfolios in order to obtain a clear picture of the opportunities but also of the risks and the trade-offs we have developed the Community Water Model (CWATM) which joins IIASA's integrated assessment modeling framework, coupling hydrology with hydro-economics (ECHO model), energy (MESSAGE model) and land use (GLOBIOM model). CWATM has been developed to work flexibly with varying spatial resolutions from global to regional levels. The model is open source and community-driven to promote our work amongst the wider water and other science community worldwide, with flexibility to link to other models and integrate newly developed modules such as water quality. In order to identify the solution portfolios, we present a global hotspots assessment of water-related risks with the ability to zoom in at regional scale using the example of the Lake Victoria basin in E. Africa. We show how socio-economic and climate change will alter spatial patterns of the hydrological cycle and have regional impacts on water availability. At

  10. Global scale groundwater flow model

    Sutanudjaja, Edwin; de Graaf, Inge; van Beek, Ludovicus; Bierkens, Marc

    2013-04-01

    As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater sustains water flows in streams, rivers, lakes and wetlands, and thus supports ecosystem habitat and biodiversity, while its large natural storage provides a buffer against water shortages. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models does not include a groundwater flow component that is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle and allows the simulation of groundwater head dynamics. In this study we present a steady-state MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) groundwater model on the global scale at 5 arc-minutes resolution. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological model (e.g. Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moorsdorff, in press). We force the groundwtaer model with the output from the large-scale hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the long term net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. We validated calculated groundwater heads and depths with available head observations, from different regions, including the North and South America and Western Europe. Our results show that it is feasible to build a relatively simple global scale groundwater model using existing information, and estimate water table depths within acceptable accuracy in many parts of the world.

  11. Global scale analysis and evaluation of an improved mechanistic representation of plant nitrogen and carbon dynamics in the Community Land Model (CLM)

    Ghimire, B.; Riley, W. J.; Koven, C. D.; Randerson, J. T.; Mu, M.; Kattge, J.; Rogers, A.; Reich, P. B.

    2014-12-01

    In many ecosystems, nitrogen is the most limiting nutrient for plant growth and productivity. However mechanistic representation of nitrogen uptake linked to root traits, and functional nitrogen allocation among different leaf enzymes involved in respiration and photosynthesis is currently lacking in Earth System models. The linkage between nitrogen availability and plant productivity is simplistically represented by potential photosynthesis rates, and is subsequently downregulated depending on nitrogen supply and other nitrogen consumers in the model (e.g., nitrification). This type of potential photosynthesis rate calculation is problematic for several reasons. Firstly, plants do not photosynthesize at potential rates and then downregulate. Secondly, there is considerable subjectivity on the meaning of potential photosynthesis rates. Thirdly, there exists lack of understanding on modeling these potential photosynthesis rates in a changing climate. In addition to model structural issues in representing photosynthesis rates, the role of plant roots in nutrient acquisition have been largely ignored in Earth System models. For example, in CLM4.5, nitrogen uptake is linked to leaf level processes (e.g., primarily productivity) rather than root scale process involved in nitrogen uptake. We present a new plant model for CLM with an improved mechanistic presentation of plant nitrogen uptake based on root scale Michaelis Menten kinetics, and stronger linkages between leaf nitrogen and plant productivity by inferring relationships observed in global databases of plant traits (including the TRY database and several individual studies). We also incorporate improved representation of plant nitrogen leaf allocation, especially in tropical regions where significant over-prediction of plant growth and productivity in CLM4.5 simulations exist. We evaluate our improved global model simulations using the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) framework. We conclude that

  12. Does a web-based feedback training program result in improved reliability in clinicians' ratings of the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) Scale?

    Støre-Valen, Jakob; Ryum, Truls; Pedersen, Geir A F; Pripp, Are H; Jose, Paul E; Karterud, Sigmund

    2015-09-01

    The Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) Scale is used in routine clinical practice and research to estimate symptom and functional severity and longitudinal change. Concerns about poor interrater reliability have been raised, and the present study evaluated the effect of a Web-based GAF training program designed to improve interrater reliability in routine clinical practice. Clinicians rated up to 20 vignettes online, and received deviation scores as immediate feedback (i.e., own scores compared with expert raters) after each rating. Growth curves of absolute SD scores across the vignettes were modeled. A linear mixed effects model, using the clinician's deviation scores from expert raters as the dependent variable, indicated an improvement in reliability during training. Moderation by content of scale (symptoms; functioning), scale range (average; extreme), previous experience with GAF rating, profession, and postgraduate training were assessed. Training reduced deviation scores for inexperienced GAF raters, for individuals in clinical professions other than nursing and medicine, and for individuals with no postgraduate specialization. In addition, training was most beneficial for cases with average severity of symptoms compared with cases with extreme severity. The results support the use of Web-based training with feedback routines as a means to improve the reliability of GAF ratings performed by clinicians in mental health practice. These results especially pertain to clinicians in mental health practice who do not have a masters or doctoral degree. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

  13. Reco level Smin and subsystem Smin: improved global inclusive variables for measuring the new physics mass scale in MET events at hadron colliders

    Konar, Partha; /Florida U.; Kong, Kyoungchul; /SLAC; Matchev, Konstantin T.; Park, Myeonghun; /Florida U.

    2011-08-11

    The variable {radical}s{sub min} was originally proposed in [1] as a model-independent, global and fully inclusive measure of the new physics mass scale in missing energy events at hadron colliders. In the original incarnation of {radical}s{sub min}, however, the connection to the new physics mass scale was blurred by the effects of the underlying event, most notably initial state radiation and multiple parton interactions. In this paper we advertize two improved variants of the {radical}s{sub min} variable, which overcome this problem. First we show that by evaluating the {radical}s{sub min} variable at the RECO level, in terms of the reconstructed objects in the event, the effects from the underlying event are significantly diminished and the nice correlation between the peak in the {radical}s{sub min}{sup (reco)} distribution and the new physics mass scale is restored. Secondly, the underlying event problem can be avoided altogether when the {radical}s{sub min} concept is applied to a subsystem of the event which does not involve any QCD jets. We supply an analytic formula for the resulting subsystem {radical}s{sub min}{sup (sub)} variable and show that its peak exhibits the usual correlation with the mass scale of the particles produced in the subsystem. Finally, we contrast {radical}s{sub min} to other popular inclusive variables such as H{sub T}, M{sub Tgen} and M{sub TTgen}. We illustrate our discussion with several examples from supersymmetry, and with dilepton events from top quark pair production.

  14. Improving musculoskeletal health: global issues.

    Mody, Girish M; Brooks, Peter M

    2012-04-01

    Musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders are among the leading reasons why patients consult a family or primary health practitioner, take time off work and become disabled. Many of the MSK disorders are more common in the elderly. Thus, as the proportion of the elderly increases all over the world, MSK disorders will make a greater contribution to the global burden of disease. Epidemiological studies have shown that the spectrum of MSK disorders in developing countries is similar to that seen in industrialised countries, but the burden of disease tends to be higher due to a delay in diagnosis or lack of access to adequate health-care facilities for effective treatment. Musculoskeletal pain is very common in the community while fibromyalgia is being recognised as part of a continuum of chronic widespread pain rather than a narrowly defined entity. This will allow research to improve our understanding of pain in a variety of diffuse pain syndromes. The availability of newer more effective therapies has resulted in efforts to initiate therapy at an earlier stage of diseases. The new criteria for rheumatoid arthritis, and the diagnosis of axial and peripheral involvement in spondyloarthritis, permit an earlier diagnosis without having to wait for radiological changes. One of the major health challenges is the global shortage of health workers, and based on current training of health workers and traditional models of care for service delivery, the global situation is unlikely to change in the near future. Thus, new models of care and strategies to train community health-care workers and primary health-care practitioners to detect and initiate the management of patients with MSK disorders at an earlier stage are required. There is also a need for prevention strategies with campaigns to educate and raise awareness among the entire population. Lifestyle interventions such as maintaining an ideal body weight to prevent obesity, regular exercises, avoidance of smoking and alcohol

  15. Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems

    Emerton, Rebecca E.; Stephens, Elisabeth M.; Pappenberger, Florian; Pagano, Thomas P.; Weerts, A.H.; Wood, A.; Salamon, Peter; Brown, James D.; Hjerdt, Niclas; Donnelly, Chantal; Baugh, Calum A.; Cloke, Hannah L.

    2016-01-01

    Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not

  16. Globalization of Brewing and Economies of Scale

    Madsen, Erik Strøjer; Wu, Yanqing

    The globalization of the brewing industry after the turn of the century through a large wave of mergers and acquisitions has changed the structure of the world beer markets. The paper tracks the development in industry concentrations from 2002 to 2012 and points to high transportation costs...... for beers and economies of scale in advertising and sales efforts as the main factors behind the wave of cross-country mergers and acquisitions. Using firm-level data from the largest breweries, the estimations verify significant economies of scale in marketing and distribution costs. Based on information...

  17. Scaling behaviour of the global tropopause

    C. Varotsos

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Detrended fluctuation analysis is applied to the time series of the global tropopause height derived from the 1980–2004 daily radiosonde data, in order to detect long-range correlations in its time evolution.

    Global tropopause height fluctuations in small time-intervals are found to be positively correlated to those in larger time intervals in a power-law fashion. The exponent of this dependence is larger in the tropics than in the middle and high latitudes in both hemispheres. Greater persistence is observed in the tropopause of the Northern than in the Southern Hemisphere. A plausible physical explanation of the fact that long-range correlations in tropopause variability decreases with increasing latitude is that the column ozone fluctuations (that are closely related with the tropopause ones exhibit long range correlations, which are larger in tropics than in the middle and high latitudes at long time scales.

    This finding for the tropopause height variability should reduce the existing uncertainties in assessing the climatic characteristics. More specifically the reliably modelled values of a climatic variable (i.e. past and future simulations must exhibit the same scaling behaviour with that possibly existing in the real observations of the variable under consideration. An effort has been made to this end by applying the detrended fluctuation analysis to the global mean monthly land and sea surface temperature anomalies during the period January 1850–August 2008. The result obtained supports the findings presented above, notably: the correlations between the fluctuations in the global mean monthly land and sea surface temperature display scaling behaviour which must characterizes any projection.

  18. The Spatial Scaling of Global Rainfall Extremes

    Devineni, N.; Xi, C.; Lall, U.; Rahill-Marier, B.

    2013-12-01

    Floods associated with severe storms are a significant source of risk for property, life and supply chains. These property losses tend to be determined as much by the duration of flooding as by the depth and velocity of inundation. High duration floods are typically induced by persistent rainfall (upto 30 day duration) as seen recently in Thailand, Pakistan, the Ohio and the Mississippi Rivers, France, and Germany. Events related to persistent and recurrent rainfall appear to correspond to the persistence of specific global climate patterns that may be identifiable from global, historical data fields, and also from climate models that project future conditions. A clear understanding of the space-time rainfall patterns for events or for a season will enable in assessing the spatial distribution of areas likely to have a high/low inundation potential for each type of rainfall forcing. In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of the spatial manifestation of the rainfall exceedances. We also investigate the connection of persistent rainfall events at different latitudinal bands to large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO. Finally, we present the scaling phenomena of contiguous flooded areas as a result of large scale organization of long duration rainfall events. This can be used for spatially distributed flood risk assessment conditional on a particular rainfall scenario. Statistical models for spatio-temporal loss simulation including model uncertainty to support regional and portfolio analysis can be developed.

  19. A high resolution global scale groundwater model

    de Graaf, Inge; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

    2014-05-01

    As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays a vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater storage provides a large natural buffer against water shortage and sustains flows to rivers and wetlands, supporting ecosystem habitats and biodiversity. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, although it is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle. Thus, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system that allows for the simulation of groundwater head dynamics and lateral flows is essential for GHMs that increasingly run at finer resolution. In this study we present a global groundwater model with a resolution of 5 arc-minutes (approximately 10 km at the equator) using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988). With this global groundwater model we eventually intend to simulate the changes in the groundwater system over time that result from variations in recharge and abstraction. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological maps and datasets (Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2013), combined with our estimate of aquifer thickness for sedimentary basins. We forced the groundwater model with the output from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. For the parameterization, we relied entirely on available global datasets and did not calibrate the model so that it can equally be expanded to data poor environments. Based on our sensitivity analysis, in which we run the model with various hydrogeological parameter settings, we observed that most variance in groundwater

  20. Towards understanding resprouting at the global scale

    Pausas, Juli G.; Pratt, R. Brandon; Keeley, Jon E.; Jacobsen, Anna L.; Ramirez, Aaron R.; Vilagrosa, Alberto; Paula, Susana; Kanekua-Pia, Iolana N.; Davis, Stephen D.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding and predicting plant response to disturbance is of paramount importance in our changing world. Resprouting ability is often considered a simple qualitative trait and used in many ecological studies. Our aim is to show some of the complexities of resprouting while highlighting cautions that need be taken in using resprouting ability to predict vegetation responses across disturbance types and biomes. There are marked differences in resprouting depending on the disturbance type, and fire is often the most severe disturbance because it includes both defoliation and lethal temperatures. In the Mediterranean biome, there are differences in functional strategies to cope with water deficit between resprouters (dehydration avoiders) and nonresprouters (dehydration tolerators); however, there is little research to unambiguously extrapolate these results to other biomes. Furthermore, predictions of vegetation responses to changes in disturbance regimes require consideration not only of resprouting, but also other relevant traits (e.g. seeding, bark thickness) and the different correlations among traits observed in different biomes; models lacking these details would behave poorly at the global scale. Overall, the lessons learned from a given disturbance regime and biome (e.g. crown-fire Mediterranean ecosystems) can guide research in other ecosystems but should not be extrapolated at the global scale.

  1. Globalizing Lessons Learned from Regional-scale Observatories

    Glenn, S. M.

    2016-02-01

    The Mid Atlantic Regional Association Coastal Ocean Observing System (MARACOOS) has accumulated a decade of experience designing, building and operating a Regional Coastal Ocean Observing System for the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS). MARACOOS serves societal goals and supports scientific discovery at the scale of a Large Marine Ecosystem (LME). Societal themes include maritime safety, ecosystem decision support, coastal inundation, water quality and offshore energy. Scientific results that feed back on societal goals with better products include improved understanding of seasonal transport pathways and their impact on phytoplankton blooms and hypoxia, seasonal evolution of the subsurface Mid Atlantic Cold Pool and its impact on fisheries, biogeochemical transformations in coastal plumes, coastal ocean evolution and impact on hurricane intensities, and storm sediment transport pathways. As the global ocean observing requirements grow to support additional societal needs for information on fisheries and aquaculture, ocean acidification and deoxygenation, water quality and offshore development, global observing will necessarily evolve to include more coastal observations and forecast models at the scale of the world's many LMEs. Here we describe our efforts to share lessons learned between the observatory operators at the regional-scale of the LMEs. Current collaborators are spread across Europe, and also include Korea, Indonesia, Australia, Brazil and South Africa. Specific examples include the development of a world standard QA/QC approach for HF Radar data that will foster the sharing of data between countries, basin-scale underwater glider missions between internationally-distributed glider ports to developed a shared understanding of operations and an ongoing evaluation of the global ocean models in which the regional models for the LME will be nested, and joint training programs to develop the distributed teams of scientists and technicians

  2. Quality improvement and emerging global health priorities

    Mensah Abrampah, Nana; Syed, Shamsuzzoha Babar; Hirschhorn, Lisa R; Nambiar, Bejoy; Iqbal, Usman; Garcia-Elorrio, Ezequiel; Chattu, Vijay Kumar; Devnani, Mahesh; Kelley, Edward

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Quality improvement approaches can strengthen action on a range of global health priorities. Quality improvement efforts are uniquely placed to reorient care delivery systems towards integrated people-centred health services and strengthen health systems to achieve Universal Health Coverage (UHC). This article makes the case for addressing shortfalls of previous agendas by articulating the critical role of quality improvement in the Sustainable Development Goal era. Quality improvement can stimulate convergence between health security and health systems; address global health security priorities through participatory quality improvement approaches; and improve health outcomes at all levels of the health system. Entry points for action include the linkage with antimicrobial resistance and the contentious issue of the health of migrants. The work required includes focussed attention on the continuum of national quality policy formulation, implementation and learning; alongside strengthening the measurement-improvement linkage. Quality improvement plays a key role in strengthening health systems to achieve UHC. PMID:29873793

  3. Improving global health: counting reasons why.

    Selgelid, Michael J

    2008-08-01

    This paper examines cumulative ethical and self-interested reasons why wealthy developed nations should be motivated to do more to improve health care in developing countries. Egalitarian and human rights reasons why wealthy nations should do more to improve global health are that doing so would (1) promote equality of opportunity (2) improve the situation of the worst-off, (3) promote respect of the human right to have one's most basic needs met, and (4) reduce undeserved inequalities in well-being. Utilitarian reasons for improving global health are that this would (5) promote the greater good of humankind, and (6) achieve enormous benefits while requiring only small sacrifices. Libertarian reasons are that this would (7) amend historical injustices and (8) meet the obligation to amend injustices that developed world countries have contributed to. Self-interested reasons why wealthy nations should do more to improve global health are that doing so would (9) reduce the threat of infectious diseases to developed countries, (10) promote developed countries' economic interests, and (11) promote global security. All of these reasons count, and together they add up to make an overwhelmingly powerful case for change. Those opposed to wealthy government funding of developing world health improvement would most likely appeal, implicitly or explicitly to the idea that coercive taxation for redistributive purposes would violate the right of an individual to keep his hard-earned income. The idea that this reason not to improve global health should outweigh the combination of rights and values embodied in the eleven reasons enumerated above, however is implausibly extreme, morally repugnant and perhaps imprudent.

  4. Constraining the global carbon budget from global to regional scales - The measurement challenge

    Francey, R.J.; Rayner, P.J.; Allison, C.E.

    2002-01-01

    The Global Carbon Cycle can be modelled by a Bayesian synthesis inversion technique, where measured atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and isotopic compositions are analysed by use of an atmospheric transport model and estimates of regional sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon. The uncertainty associated to carbon flux estimates even on a regional scale can be improved considerably using the inversion technique. In this approach, besides the necessary control on the precision of atmospheric transport models and on the constraints for surface fluxes, an important component is the calibration of atmospheric CO 2 concentration and isotope measurements. The recent improved situation in respect to data comparability is discussed using results of conducted interlaboratory comparison exercises and larger scale calibration programs are proposed for the future to further improve the comparability of analytical data. (author)

  5. Improved Global Ocean Color Using Polymer Algorithm

    Steinmetz, Francois; Ramon, Didier; Deschamps, ierre-Yves; Stum, Jacques

    2010-12-01

    A global ocean color product has been developed based on the use of the POLYMER algorithm to correct atmospheric scattering and sun glint and to process the data to a Level 2 ocean color product. Thanks to the use of this algorithm, the coverage and accuracy of the MERIS ocean color product have been significantly improved when compared to the standard product, therefore increasing its usefulness for global ocean monitor- ing applications like GLOBCOLOUR. We will present the latest developments of the algorithm, its first application to MODIS data and its validation against in-situ data from the MERMAID database. Examples will be shown of global NRT chlorophyll maps produced by CLS with POLYMER for operational applications like fishing or oil and gas industry, as well as its use by Scripps for a NASA study of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas.

  6. Climate Controls AM Fungal Distributions from Global to Local Scales

    Kivlin, S. N.; Hawkes, C.; Muscarella, R.; Treseder, K. K.; Kazenel, M.; Lynn, J.; Rudgers, J.

    2016-12-01

    Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi have key functions in terrestrial biogeochemical processes; thus, determining the relative importance of climate, edaphic factors, and plant community composition on their geographic distributions can improve predictions of their sensitivity to global change. Local adaptation by AM fungi to plant hosts, soil nutrients, and climate suggests that all of these factors may control fungal geographic distributions, but their relative importance is unknown. We created species distribution models for 142 AM fungal taxa at the global scale with data from GenBank. We compared climate variables (BioClim and soil moisture), edaphic variables (phosphorus, carbon, pH, and clay content), and plant variables using model selection on models with (1) all variables, (2) climatic variables only (including soil moisture) and (3) resource-related variables only (all other soil parameters and NPP) using the MaxEnt algorithm evaluated with ENMEval. We also evaluated whether drivers of AM fungal distributions were phylogenetically conserved. To test whether global correlates of AM fungal distributions were reflected at local scales, we then surveyed AM fungi in nine plant hosts along three elevation gradients in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA. At the global scale, the distributions of 55% of AM fungal taxa were affected by both climate and soil resources, whereas 16% were only affected by climate and 29% were only affected by soil resources. Even for AM fungi that were affected by both climate and resources, the effects of climatic variables nearly always outweighed those of resources. Soil moisture and isothermality were the main climatic and NPP and soil carbon the main resource related factors influencing AM fungal distributions. Distributions of closely related AM fungal taxa were similarly affected by climate, but not by resources. Local scale surveys of AM fungi across elevations confirmed that climate was a key driver of AM fungal

  7. ENSO impacts on flood risk at the global scale

    Ward, Philip; Dettinger, Michael; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Winsemius, Hessel

    2014-05-01

    We present the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on society and the economy, via relationships between ENSO and the hydrological cycle. We also discuss ways in which this knowledge can be used in disaster risk management and risk reduction. This contribution provides the most recent results of an ongoing 4-year collaborative research initiative to assess and map the impacts of large scale interannual climate variability on flood hazard and risk at the global scale. We have examined anomalies in flood risk between ENSO phases, whereby flood risk is expressed in terms of indicators such as: annual expected damage; annual expected affected population; annual expected affected Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We show that large anomalies in flood risk occur during El Niño or La Niña years in basins covering large parts of the Earth's surface. These anomalies reach statistical significance river basins covering almost two-thirds of the Earth's surface. Particularly strong anomalies exist in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially La Niña anomalies), and parts of South America. We relate these anomalies to possible causal relationships between ENSO and flood hazard, using both modelled and observed data on flood occurrence and extremity. The implications for flood risk management are many-fold. In those regions where disaster risk is strongly influenced by ENSO, the potential predictably of ENSO could be used to develop probabilistic flood risk projections with lead times up to several seasons. Such data could be used by the insurance industry in managing risk portfolios and by multinational companies for assessing the robustness of their supply chains to potential flood-related interruptions. Seasonal forecasts of ENSO influence of peak flows could also allow for improved flood early warning and regulation by dam operators, which could also reduce overall risks

  8. Global-Scale Patterns of Forest Fragmentation

    Kurt Riitters

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available We report an analysis of forest fragmentation based on 1-km resolution land-cover maps for the globe. Measurements in analysis windows from 81 km 2 (9 x 9 pixels, "small" scale to 59,049 km 2 (243 x 243 pixels, "large" scale were used to characterize the fragmentation around each forested pixel. We identified six categories of fragmentation (interior, perforated, edge, transitional, patch, and undetermined from the amount of forest and its occurrence as adjacent forest pixels. Interior forest exists only at relatively small scales; at larger scales, forests are dominated by edge and patch conditions. At the smallest scale, there were significant differences in fragmentation among continents; within continents, there were significant differences among individual forest types. Tropical rain forest fragmentation was most severe in North America and least severe in Europe-Asia. Forest types with a high percentage of perforated conditions were mainly in North America (five types and Europe-Asia (four types, in both temperate and subtropical regions. Transitional and patch conditions were most common in 11 forest types, of which only a few would be considered as "naturally patchy" (e.g., dry woodland. The five forest types with the highest percentage of interior conditions were in North America; in decreasing order, they were cool rain forest, coniferous, conifer boreal, cool mixed, and cool broadleaf.

  9. Global-scale patterns of forest fragmentation

    Riitters, K.; Wickham, J.; O'Neill, R.; Jones, B.; Smith, E.

    2000-01-01

    We report an analysis of forest fragmentation based on 1-km resolution land-cover maps for the globe. Measurements in analysis windows from 81 km 2 (9 ?? 9 pixels, "small" scale) to 59,049 km 2 (243 ?? 243 pixels, "large" scale) were used to characterize the fragmentation around each forested pixel. We identified six categories of fragmentation (interior, perforated, edge, transitional, patch, and undetermined) from the amount of forest and its occurrence as adjacent forest pixels. Interior forest exists only at relatively small scales; at larger scales, forests are dominated by edge and patch conditions. At the smallest scale, there were significant differences in fragmentation among continents; within continents, there were significant differences among individual forest types. Tropical rain forest fragmentation was most severe in North America and least severe in Europe - Asia. Forest types with a high percentage of perforated conditions were mainly in North America (five types) and Europe - Asia (four types), in both temperate and subtropical regions. Transitional and patch conditions were most common in 11 forest types, of which only a few would be considered as "naturally patchy" (e.g., dry woodland). The five forest types with the highest percentage of interior conditions were in North America; in decreasing order, they were cool rain forest, coniferous, conifer boreal, cool mixed, and cool broadleaf. Copyright ?? 2000 by The Resilience Alliance.

  10. The global financial crisis and health: scaling up our effort.

    Labonté, Ronald

    2009-01-01

    Economic events of the past year are beginning to create hardships for tens of thousands of Canadians. There are likely to be health effects as well, to the extent that unemployment and poverty rates rise. Conditions, however, will be much worse for those living in poorer countries. High-income countries are committing trillions of dollars in countercyclical spending and banking bail-outs. Poorer countries need to do the same, but lack the resources to do so. Yet foreign aid and fairer trade are widely expected to be among the first high-income country victims of the recession fallout as nations turn inwards and protectionist. This is neither good for global health nor necessary given the scale of untaxed (or unfairly taxed) wealth that could be harnessed for a truly global rescue package. Policy choices confront us. The Canadian public health community must hold our political leadership accountable for making those choices that will improve health globally and not further imperil the well-being of much of the world's population in efforts to secure our own future economic revival.

  11. Building capacity in biodiversity monitoring at the global scale

    Schmeller, Dirk S.; Bohm, Monika; Arvanitidis, Christos; Barber-Meyer, Shannon; Brummitt, Neil; Chandler, Mark; Chatzinikolaou, Eva; Costello, Mark J.; Ding, Hui; García-Moreno, Jaime; Gill, Michael J.; Haase, Peter; Jones, Miranda; Juillard, Romain; Magnusson, William E.; Martin, Corinne S.; McGeoch, Melodie A.; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Proença, Vânia; Peng, Cui; Regan, Eugenie; Schmiedel, Ute; Simsika, John P.; Weatherdon, Lauren; Waterman, Carly; Xu, Haigen; Belnap, Jayne

    2017-01-01

    Human-driven global change is causing ongoing declines in biodiversity worldwide. In order to address these declines, decision-makers need accurate assessments of the status of and pressures on biodiversity. However, these are heavily constrained by incomplete and uneven spatial, temporal and taxonomic coverage. For instance, data from regions such as Europe and North America are currently used overwhelmingly for large-scale biodiversity assessments due to lesser availability of suitable data from other, more biodiversity-rich, regions. These data-poor regions are often those experiencing the strongest threats to biodiversity, however. There is therefore an urgent need to fill the existing gaps in global biodiversity monitoring. Here, we review current knowledge on best practice in capacity building for biodiversity monitoring and provide an overview of existing means to improve biodiversity data collection considering the different types of biodiversity monitoring data. Our review comprises insights from work in Africa, South America, Polar Regions and Europe; in government-funded, volunteer and citizen-based monitoring in terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. The key steps to effectively building capacity in biodiversity monitoring are: identifying monitoring questions and aims; identifying the key components, functions, and processes to monitor; identifying the most suitable monitoring methods for these elements, carrying out monitoring activities; managing the resultant data; and interpreting monitoring data. Additionally, biodiversity monitoring should use multiple approaches including extensive and intensive monitoring through volunteers and professional scientists but also harnessing new technologies. Finally, we call on the scientific community to share biodiversity monitoring data, knowledge and tools to ensure the accessibility, interoperability, and reporting of biodiversity data at a global scale.

  12. Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Continental-scale International Project (GCIP)

    Vane, Deborah

    1993-01-01

    A discussion of the objectives of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Continental-scale International Project (GCIP) is presented in vugraph form. The objectives of GEWEX are as follows: determine the hydrological cycle by global measurements; model the global hydrological cycle; improve observations and data assimilation; and predict response to environmental change. The objectives of GCIP are as follows: determine the time/space variability of the hydrological cycle over a continental-scale region; develop macro-scale hydrologic models that are coupled to atmospheric models; develop information retrieval schemes; and support regional climate change impact assessment.

  13. Sensitivities in global scale modeling of isoprene

    R. von Kuhlmann

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available A sensitivity study of the treatment of isoprene and related parameters in 3D atmospheric models was conducted using the global model of tropospheric chemistry MATCH-MPIC. A total of twelve sensitivity scenarios which can be grouped into four thematic categories were performed. These four categories consist of simulations with different chemical mechanisms, different assumptions concerning the deposition characteristics of intermediate products, assumptions concerning the nitrates from the oxidation of isoprene and variations of the source strengths. The largest differences in ozone compared to the reference simulation occured when a different isoprene oxidation scheme was used (up to 30-60% or about 10 nmol/mol. The largest differences in the abundance of peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN were found when the isoprene emission strength was reduced by 50% and in tests with increased or decreased efficiency of the deposition of intermediates. The deposition assumptions were also found to have a significant effect on the upper tropospheric HOx production. Different implicit assumptions about the loss of intermediate products were identified as a major reason for the deviations among the tested isoprene oxidation schemes. The total tropospheric burden of O3 calculated in the sensitivity runs is increased compared to the background methane chemistry by 26±9  Tg( O3 from 273 to an average from the sensitivity runs of 299 Tg(O3. % revised Thus, there is a spread of ± 35% of the overall effect of isoprene in the model among the tested scenarios. This range of uncertainty and the much larger local deviations found in the test runs suggest that the treatment of isoprene in global models can only be seen as a first order estimate at present, and points towards specific processes in need of focused future work.

  14. Large-Scale and Global Hydrology. Chapter 92

    Rodell, Matthew; Beaudoing, Hiroko Kato; Koster, Randal; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Famiglietti, James S.; Lakshmi, Venkat

    2016-01-01

    Powered by the sun, water moves continuously between and through Earths oceanic, atmospheric, and terrestrial reservoirs. It enables life, shapes Earths surface, and responds to and influences climate change. Scientists measure various features of the water cycle using a combination of ground, airborne, and space-based observations, and seek to characterize it at multiple scales with the aid of numerical models. Over time our understanding of the water cycle and ability to quantify it have improved, owing to advances in observational capabilities, the extension of the data record, and increases in computing power and storage. Here we present some of the most recent estimates of global and continental ocean basin scale water cycle stocks and fluxes and provide examples of modern numerical modeling systems and reanalyses.Further, we discuss prospects for predicting water cycle variability at seasonal and longer scales, which is complicated by a changing climate and direct human impacts related to water management and agriculture. Changes to the water cycle will be among the most obvious and important facets of climate change, thus it is crucial that we continue to invest in our ability to monitor it.

  15. The Imperative for Improved Global Economic Coordination

    Stiglitz, Joseph E.

    2009-01-01

    While global coordination is absolutely essential, success in achieving it may prove difficult because economic globalization has outpaced political globalization. If we are to succeed, we will have to manage coordination better than we have in the past.

  16. The Tunneling Method for Global Optimization in Multidimensional Scaling.

    Groenen, Patrick J. F.; Heiser, Willem J.

    1996-01-01

    A tunneling method for global minimization in multidimensional scaling is introduced and adjusted for multidimensional scaling with general Minkowski distances. The method alternates a local search step with a tunneling step in which a different configuration is sought with the same STRESS implementation. (SLD)

  17. Potential vorticity dynamics for global scale circulations

    Lu, C.; Schubert, W.

    1994-01-01

    One of the most notable advances in extratropical dynamics this decade has been the understanding of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic processes by using potential vorticity dynamics, the so called open-quotes IPV thinking.close quotes This analysis method has also been successfully extended to some tropical atmospheric circulation systems such as hurricanes and the Hadley circulation. The fundamental idea behind such a dynamic system rests with the fact that PV is a tracer-like quantity since it is conserved (in the absence of friction and diabatic heating) following a fluid particle and carries both significant dynamic and thermodynamic information regarding fluid motion. Thus, the prediction and inversion of PV form the most succinct dynamic view of atmospheric and oceanic motions. Furthermore, PV dynamics provides access to many insightful dynamic analyses such as: Propagation of Rossby waves, barotropic and baroclinic instabilities for shear flows, and wave-mean flow interactions. All these features make IPV analysis a very attractive tool for studying geophysical fluid systems

  18. Phylogenetic biome conservatism on a global scale.

    Crisp, Michael D; Arroyo, Mary T K; Cook, Lyn G; Gandolfo, Maria A; Jordan, Gregory J; McGlone, Matt S; Weston, Peter H; Westoby, Mark; Wilf, Peter; Linder, H Peter

    2009-04-09

    How and why organisms are distributed as they are has long intrigued evolutionary biologists. The tendency for species to retain their ancestral ecology has been demonstrated in distributions on local and regional scales, but the extent of ecological conservatism over tens of millions of years and across continents has not been assessed. Here we show that biome stasis at speciation has outweighed biome shifts by a ratio of more than 25:1, by inferring ancestral biomes for an ecologically diverse sample of more than 11,000 plant species from around the Southern Hemisphere. Stasis was also prevalent in transocean colonizations. Availability of a suitable biome could have substantially influenced which lineages establish on more than one landmass, in addition to the influence of the rarity of the dispersal events themselves. Conversely, the taxonomic composition of biomes has probably been strongly influenced by the rarity of species' transitions between biomes. This study has implications for the future because if clades have inherently limited capacity to shift biomes, then their evolutionary potential could be strongly compromised by biome contraction as climate changes.

  19. Detecting reciprocity at a global scale.

    Frank, Morgan R; Obradovich, Nick; Sun, Lijun; Woon, Wei Lee; LeVeck, Brad L; Rahwan, Iyad

    2018-01-01

    Reciprocity stabilizes cooperation from the level of microbes all the way up to humans interacting in small groups, but does reciprocity also underlie stable cooperation between larger human agglomerations, such as nation states? Famously, evolutionary models show that reciprocity could emerge as a widespread strategy for achieving international cooperation. However, existing studies have only detected reciprocity-driven cooperation in a small number of country pairs. We apply a new method for detecting mutual influence in dynamical systems to a new large-scale data set that records state interactions with high temporal resolution. Doing so, we detect reciprocity between many country pairs in the international system and find that these reciprocating country pairs exhibit qualitatively different cooperative dynamics when compared to nonreciprocating pairs. Consistent with evolutionary theories of cooperation, reciprocating country pairs exhibit higher levels of stable cooperation and are more likely to punish instances of noncooperation. However, countries in reciprocity-based relationships are also quicker to forgive single acts of noncooperation by eventually returning to previous levels of mutual cooperation. By contrast, nonreciprocating pairs are more likely to exploit each other's cooperation via higher rates of defection. Together, these findings provide the strongest evidence to date that reciprocity is a widespread mechanism for achieving international cooperation.

  20. Detecting reciprocity at a global scale

    Frank, Morgan R.; Obradovich, Nick; Sun, Lijun; Woon, Wei Lee; LeVeck, Brad L.; Rahwan, Iyad

    2018-01-01

    Reciprocity stabilizes cooperation from the level of microbes all the way up to humans interacting in small groups, but does reciprocity also underlie stable cooperation between larger human agglomerations, such as nation states? Famously, evolutionary models show that reciprocity could emerge as a widespread strategy for achieving international cooperation. However, existing studies have only detected reciprocity-driven cooperation in a small number of country pairs. We apply a new method for detecting mutual influence in dynamical systems to a new large-scale data set that records state interactions with high temporal resolution. Doing so, we detect reciprocity between many country pairs in the international system and find that these reciprocating country pairs exhibit qualitatively different cooperative dynamics when compared to nonreciprocating pairs. Consistent with evolutionary theories of cooperation, reciprocating country pairs exhibit higher levels of stable cooperation and are more likely to punish instances of noncooperation. However, countries in reciprocity-based relationships are also quicker to forgive single acts of noncooperation by eventually returning to previous levels of mutual cooperation. By contrast, nonreciprocating pairs are more likely to exploit each other’s cooperation via higher rates of defection. Together, these findings provide the strongest evidence to date that reciprocity is a widespread mechanism for achieving international cooperation. PMID:29326983

  1. Improving the delivery of global tobacco control.

    Bitton, Asaf; Green, Carol; Colbert, James

    2011-01-01

    Tobacco control must remain a critical global health priority given the growing burden of tobacco-induced disease in the developing world. Insights from the emerging field of global health delivery suggest that tobacco control could be improved through a systematic, granular analysis of the processes through which it is promoted, implemented, and combated. Using this framework, a critical bottleneck to the delivery of proven health promotion emerges in the role that the tobacco industry plays in promoting tobacco use and blocking effective tobacco-control policies. This "corporate bottleneck" can also be understood as a root cause of massive disease and suffering upon vulnerable populations worldwide, for the goal of maximizing corporate profit. Naming, understanding, and responding to this corporate bottleneck is crucial to the success of tobacco-control policies. Three case studies of tobacco-control policy--South Africa, the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, and Uruguay--are presented to explore and understand the implications of this analysis. © 2011 Mount Sinai School of Medicine.

  2. Agricultural insecticides threaten surface waters at the global scale.

    Stehle, Sebastian; Schulz, Ralf

    2015-05-05

    Compared with nutrient levels and habitat degradation, the importance of agricultural pesticides in surface water may have been underestimated due to a lack of comprehensive quantitative analysis. Increasing pesticide contamination results in decreasing regional aquatic biodiversity, i.e., macroinvertebrate family richness is reduced by ∼30% at pesticide concentrations equaling the legally accepted regulatory threshold levels (RTLs). This study provides a comprehensive metaanalysis of 838 peer-reviewed studies (>2,500 sites in 73 countries) that evaluates, for the first time to our knowledge on a global scale, the exposure of surface waters to particularly toxic agricultural insecticides. We tested whether measured insecticide concentrations (MICs; i.e., quantified insecticide concentrations) exceed their RTLs and how risks depend on insecticide development over time and stringency of environmental regulation. Our analysis reveals that MICs occur rarely (i.e., an estimated 97.4% of analyses conducted found no MICs) and there is a complete lack of scientific monitoring data for ∼90% of global cropland. Most importantly, of the 11,300 MICs, 52.4% (5,915 cases; 68.5% of the sites) exceeded the RTL for either surface water (RTLSW) or sediments. Thus, the biological integrity of global water resources is at a substantial risk. RTLSW exceedances depend on the catchment size, sampling regime, and sampling date; are significantly higher for newer-generation insecticides (i.e., pyrethroids); and are high even in countries with stringent environmental regulations. These results suggest the need for worldwide improvements to current pesticide regulations and agricultural pesticide application practices and for intensified research efforts on the presence and effects of pesticides under real-world conditions.

  3. Bringing the Global Scale to Education in Natural Resources Management

    Turner, D. P.

    2017-12-01

    Given the ominous trajectory of rapid global environmental change, environmental managers must grapple with global scale structures, processes, and concepts. The concept of the Anthropocene Epoch, albeit contested, is highly integrative across disciplines and temporal scales, and thus potentially helpful in the context of educating environmental managers. It can be framed temporally in terms of the geologic history of the global environment, the initiation and acceleration of anthropogenic impacts on the environment, and a future global environment that is highly dependent on human decisions. A key lesson from Earth's pre-human geologic history is that global climate has generally been linked to greenhouse gas concentrations, and many mass extinction events were associated with high greenhouse gas concentrations. The pervasive impacts of the contemporary technosphere on the biosphere point especially to the need to conserve biosphere capital. Scenarios of Earth's future environment, based on Earth system models, suggest that business-as-usual technologies and economic practices will set the stage for a biophysical environment that is hostile (if not inimical) to a high technology global civilization. These lessons can inform and inspire sub-global management efforts to mitigate and adapt to global environmental change.

  4. Globalization: Ecological consequences of global-scale connectivity in people, resources and information

    Globalization is a phenomenon affecting all facets of the Earth System. Within the context of ecological systems, it is becoming increasingly apparent that global connectivity among terrestrial systems, the atmosphere, and oceans is driving many ecological dynamics at finer scales and pushing thresh...

  5. Global terrestrial biogeochemistry: Perturbations, interactions, and time scales

    Braswell, B.H. Jr.

    1996-12-01

    Global biogeochemical processes are being perturbed by human activity, principally that which is associated with industrial activity and expansion of urban and agricultural complexes. Perturbations have manifested themselves at least since the beginning of the 19th Century, and include emissions of CO{sub 2} and other pollutants from fossil fuel combustion, agricultural emissions of reactive nitrogen, and direct disruption of ecosystem function through land conversion. These perturbations yield local impacts, but there are also global consequences that are the sum of local-scale influences. Several approaches to understanding the global-scale implications of chemical perturbations to the Earth system are discussed. The lifetime of anthropogenic CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere is an important concept for understanding the current and future commitment to an altered atmospheric heat budget. The importance of the terrestrial biogeochemistry relative to the lifetime of excess CO{sub 2} is demonstrated using dynamic, aggregated models of the global carbon cycle.

  6. Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

    Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

    2013-12-01

    In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change

  7. Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model

    Engelbrecht, FA

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available -mail: fengelbrecht@csir.co.za Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model FA Engelbrecht1, 2*, WA Landman1, 3, CJ Engelbrecht4, S Landman5, MM Bopape1, B Roux6, JL McGregor7 and M Thatcher7 1 CSIR Natural... improvement. Keywords: multi-scale climate modelling, variable-resolution atmospheric model Introduction Dynamic climate models have become the primary tools for the projection of future climate change, at both the global and regional scales. Dynamic...

  8. The ecology of dust: local- to global-scale perspectives

    Whicker, Jeffrey J [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Field, Jason P [UA; Belnap, Jayne [NON LANL; Breshears, David D [UA; Neff, Jason [CU; Okin, Gregory S [UCLA; Painter, Thomas H [UNIV OF ARIZONA; Ravi, Sujith [UNIV OF ARIZONA; Reheis, Marith C [UCLA; Reynolds, Richard L [NON LANL

    2009-01-01

    Emission and redistribution of dust due to wind erosion in drylands drives major biogeochemical dynamics and provides important aeolian environmental connectivity at scales from individual plants up to the global scale. Yet, perhaps because most relevant research on aeolian processes has been presented in a geosciences rather than ecological context, most ecological studies do not explicitly consider dust-driven processes. To bridge this disciplinary gap, we provide a general overview of the ecological importance of dust, examine complex interactions between wind erosion and ecosystem dynamics from the plant-interspace scale to regional and global scales, and highlight specific examples of how disturbance affects these interactions and their consequences. Changes in climate and intensification of land use will both likely lead to increased dust production. To address these challenges, environmental scientists, land managers and policy makers need to more explicitly consider dust in resource management decisions.

  9. Using Scaling to Understand, Model and Predict Global Scale Anthropogenic and Natural Climate Change

    Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.

    2014-12-01

    The atmosphere is variable over twenty orders of magnitude in time (≈10-3 to 1017 s) and almost all of the variance is in the spectral "background" which we show can be divided into five scaling regimes: weather, macroweather, climate, macroclimate and megaclimate. We illustrate this with instrumental and paleo data. Based the signs of the fluctuation exponent H, we argue that while the weather is "what you get" (H>0: fluctuations increasing with scale), that it is macroweather (Hdecreasing with scale) - not climate - "that you expect". The conventional framework that treats the background as close to white noise and focuses on quasi-periodic variability assumes a spectrum that is in error by a factor of a quadrillion (≈ 1015). Using this scaling framework, we can quantify the natural variability, distinguish it from anthropogenic variability, test various statistical hypotheses and make stochastic climate forecasts. For example, we estimate the probability that the warming is simply a giant century long natural fluctuation is less than 1%, most likely less than 0.1% and estimate return periods for natural warming events of different strengths and durations, including the slow down ("pause") in the warming since 1998. The return period for the pause was found to be 20-50 years i.e. not very unusual; however it immediately follows a 6 year "pre-pause" warming event of almost the same magnitude with a similar return period (30 - 40 years). To improve on these unconditional estimates, we can use scaling models to exploit the long range memory of the climate process to make accurate stochastic forecasts of the climate including the pause. We illustrate stochastic forecasts on monthly and annual scale series of global and northern hemisphere surface temperatures. We obtain forecast skill nearly as high as the theoretical (scaling) predictability limits allow: for example, using hindcasts we find that at 10 year forecast horizons we can still explain ≈ 15% of the

  10. The scaling structure of the global road network.

    Strano, Emanuele; Giometto, Andrea; Shai, Saray; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mucha, Peter J; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2017-10-01

    Because of increasing global urbanization and its immediate consequences, including changes in patterns of food demand, circulation and land use, the next century will witness a major increase in the extent of paved roads built worldwide. To model the effects of this increase, it is crucial to understand whether possible self-organized patterns are inherent in the global road network structure. Here, we use the largest updated database comprising all major roads on the Earth, together with global urban and cropland inventories, to suggest that road length distributions within croplands are indistinguishable from urban ones, once rescaled to account for the difference in mean road length. Such similarity extends to road length distributions within urban or agricultural domains of a given area. We find two distinct regimes for the scaling of the mean road length with the associated area, holding in general at small and at large values of the latter. In suitably large urban and cropland domains, we find that mean and total road lengths increase linearly with their domain area, differently from earlier suggestions. Scaling regimes suggest that simple and universal mechanisms regulate urban and cropland road expansion at the global scale. As such, our findings bear implications for global road infrastructure growth based on land-use change and for planning policies sustaining urban expansions.

  11. Global scaling properties of the spectrum for the Fibonacci chains

    Zheng, W. M.

    1987-02-01

    By means of the approximate renormalization approach of Niu and Nori [Phys. Rev. Lett. 57, 2057 (1986)] the widths of subband segments in the spectrum and the occupation probabilities on subbands are obtained to the lowest order for the two-value Fibonacci chains. The global scaling properties of the spectrum are then analytically calculated.

  12. Teach for All: Storytelling "Shared Solutions" and Scaling Global Reform

    Ahmann, Chloe

    2015-01-01

    "Teach For All" is a global network of state-based organizations that translate "Teach For America's" market model of school reform into moral projects of nation-building abroad. Referring to this challenge as one of "scaling" the organization, its leaders elaborate a theory of change that hinges on replicability: in…

  13. Global scale ionospheric irregularities associated with thunderstorm activity

    Pulinets, Sergey A.; Depuev, Victor H.

    2003-01-01

    The potential difference near 280 kV exists between ground and ionosphere. This potential difference is generated by thunderstorm discharges all over the world, and return current closes the circuit in the areas of fair weather (so-called fair weather current). The model calculations and experimental measurements clearly demonstrate non-uniform latitude-longitude distribution of electric field within the atmosphere. The recent calculations show that the strong large scale vertical atmospheric electric field can penetrate into the ionosphere and create large scale irregularities of the electron concentration. To check this the global distributions of thunderstorm activity obtained with the satellite monitoring for different seasons were compared with the global distributions of ionosphere critical frequency (which is equivalent to peak electron concentration) obtained with the help of satellite topside sounding. The similarity of the obtained global distributions clearly demonstrates the effects of thunderstorm electric fields onto the Earth's ionosphere. (author)

  14. Global scale ionospheric irregularities associated with thunderstorm activity

    Pulinets, S A

    2002-01-01

    The potential difference near 280 kV exists between ground and ionosphere. This potential difference is generated by thunderstorm discharges all over the world, and return current closes the circuit in the areas of fair weather (so-called fair weather current). The model calculations and experimental measurements clearly demonstrate non-uniform latitude-longitude distribution of electric field within the atmosphere. The recent calculations show that the strong large scale vertical atmospheric electric field can penetrate into the ionosphere and create large scale irregularities of the electron concentration. To check this the global distributions of thunderstorm activity obtained with the satellite monitoring for different seasons were compared with the global distributions of ionosphere critical frequency (which is equivalent to peak electron concentration) obtained with the help of satellite topside sounding. The similarity of the obtained global distributions clearly demonstrates the effects of thunderstor...

  15. Global fits of GUT-scale SUSY models with GAMBIT

    Athron, Peter; Balázs, Csaba; Bringmann, Torsten; Buckley, Andy; Chrząszcz, Marcin; Conrad, Jan; Cornell, Jonathan M.; Dal, Lars A.; Edsjö, Joakim; Farmer, Ben; Jackson, Paul; Krislock, Abram; Kvellestad, Anders; Mahmoudi, Farvah; Martinez, Gregory D.; Putze, Antje; Raklev, Are; Rogan, Christopher; de Austri, Roberto Ruiz; Saavedra, Aldo; Savage, Christopher; Scott, Pat; Serra, Nicola; Weniger, Christoph; White, Martin

    2017-12-01

    We present the most comprehensive global fits to date of three supersymmetric models motivated by grand unification: the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM), and its Non-Universal Higgs Mass generalisations NUHM1 and NUHM2. We include likelihoods from a number of direct and indirect dark matter searches, a large collection of electroweak precision and flavour observables, direct searches for supersymmetry at LEP and Runs I and II of the LHC, and constraints from Higgs observables. Our analysis improves on existing results not only in terms of the number of included observables, but also in the level of detail with which we treat them, our sampling techniques for scanning the parameter space, and our treatment of nuisance parameters. We show that stau co-annihilation is now ruled out in the CMSSM at more than 95% confidence. Stop co-annihilation turns out to be one of the most promising mechanisms for achieving an appropriate relic density of dark matter in all three models, whilst avoiding all other constraints. We find high-likelihood regions of parameter space featuring light stops and charginos, making them potentially detectable in the near future at the LHC. We also show that tonne-scale direct detection will play a largely complementary role, probing large parts of the remaining viable parameter space, including essentially all models with multi-TeV neutralinos.

  16. Global fits of GUT-scale SUSY models with GAMBIT

    Athron, Peter [Monash University, School of Physics and Astronomy, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale (Australia); Balazs, Csaba [Monash University, School of Physics and Astronomy, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale (Australia); Bringmann, Torsten; Dal, Lars A.; Krislock, Abram; Raklev, Are [University of Oslo, Department of Physics, Oslo (Norway); Buckley, Andy [University of Glasgow, SUPA, School of Physics and Astronomy, Glasgow (United Kingdom); Chrzaszcz, Marcin [Universitaet Zuerich, Physik-Institut, Zurich (Switzerland); H. Niewodniczanski Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakow (Poland); Conrad, Jan; Edsjoe, Joakim; Farmer, Ben [AlbaNova University Centre, Oskar Klein Centre for Cosmoparticle Physics, Stockholm (Sweden); Stockholm University, Department of Physics, Stockholm (Sweden); Cornell, Jonathan M. [McGill University, Department of Physics, Montreal, QC (Canada); Jackson, Paul; White, Martin [Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale (Australia); University of Adelaide, Department of Physics, Adelaide, SA (Australia); Kvellestad, Anders; Savage, Christopher [NORDITA, Stockholm (Sweden); Mahmoudi, Farvah [Univ Lyon, Univ Lyon 1, CNRS, ENS de Lyon, Centre de Recherche Astrophysique de Lyon UMR5574, Saint-Genis-Laval (France); Theoretical Physics Department, CERN, Geneva (Switzerland); Martinez, Gregory D. [University of California, Physics and Astronomy Department, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Putze, Antje [LAPTh, Universite de Savoie, CNRS, Annecy-le-Vieux (France); Rogan, Christopher [Harvard University, Department of Physics, Cambridge, MA (United States); Ruiz de Austri, Roberto [IFIC-UV/CSIC, Instituto de Fisica Corpuscular, Valencia (Spain); Saavedra, Aldo [Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale (Australia); The University of Sydney, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technologies, Centre for Translational Data Science, School of Physics, Camperdown, NSW (Australia); Scott, Pat [Imperial College London, Department of Physics, Blackett Laboratory, London (United Kingdom); Serra, Nicola [Universitaet Zuerich, Physik-Institut, Zurich (Switzerland); Weniger, Christoph [University of Amsterdam, GRAPPA, Institute of Physics, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Collaboration: The GAMBIT Collaboration

    2017-12-15

    We present the most comprehensive global fits to date of three supersymmetric models motivated by grand unification: the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM), and its Non-Universal Higgs Mass generalisations NUHM1 and NUHM2. We include likelihoods from a number of direct and indirect dark matter searches, a large collection of electroweak precision and flavour observables, direct searches for supersymmetry at LEP and Runs I and II of the LHC, and constraints from Higgs observables. Our analysis improves on existing results not only in terms of the number of included observables, but also in the level of detail with which we treat them, our sampling techniques for scanning the parameter space, and our treatment of nuisance parameters. We show that stau co-annihilation is now ruled out in the CMSSM at more than 95% confidence. Stop co-annihilation turns out to be one of the most promising mechanisms for achieving an appropriate relic density of dark matter in all three models, whilst avoiding all other constraints. We find high-likelihood regions of parameter space featuring light stops and charginos, making them potentially detectable in the near future at the LHC. We also show that tonne-scale direct detection will play a largely complementary role, probing large parts of the remaining viable parameter space, including essentially all models with multi-TeV neutralinos. (orig.)

  17. Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-12-01

    The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI

  18. Empirical scaling law connecting persistence and severity of global terrorism

    Gao, Jianbo; Fang, Peng; Liu, Feiyan

    2017-09-01

    Terrorism and counterterrorism have both been evolving rapidly. From time to time, there have been debates on whether the new terrorism is evolutionary or revolutionary. Such debate often becomes more heated after major terrorist activities, such as the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 and the November 13, 2015 coordinated Paris terror attack. Using country-wide terrorism data since 1970, we show that there exist scaling laws governing the continuity and persistence of world-wide terrorism, with the long-term scaling parameter for each country closely related to its yearly global terrorism index. This suggests that the new terrorism is more accurately considered evolutionary. It is further shown that the imbalance in the seesaw of terrorism and counterterrorism is not only responsible for the scaling behavior found here, but also provides new means of quantifying the severity of the global terrorism.

  19. A high-resolution global-scale groundwater model

    de Graaf, I. E. M.; Sutanudjaja, E. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2015-02-01

    Groundwater is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water. It plays a vital role in satisfying basic needs for drinking water, agriculture and industrial activities. During times of drought groundwater sustains baseflow to rivers and wetlands, thereby supporting ecosystems. Most global-scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, mainly due to lack of geohydrological data at the global scale. For the simulation of lateral flow and groundwater head dynamics, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system is needed, especially for GHMs that run at finer resolutions. In this study we present a global-scale groundwater model (run at 6' resolution) using MODFLOW to construct an equilibrium water table at its natural state as the result of long-term climatic forcing. The used aquifer schematization and properties are based on available global data sets of lithology and transmissivities combined with the estimated thickness of an upper, unconfined aquifer. This model is forced with outputs from the land-surface PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) model, specifically net recharge and surface water levels. A sensitivity analysis, in which the model was run with various parameter settings, showed that variation in saturated conductivity has the largest impact on the groundwater levels simulated. Validation with observed groundwater heads showed that groundwater heads are reasonably well simulated for many regions of the world, especially for sediment basins (R2 = 0.95). The simulated regional-scale groundwater patterns and flow paths demonstrate the relevance of lateral groundwater flow in GHMs. Inter-basin groundwater flows can be a significant part of a basin's water budget and help to sustain river baseflows, especially during droughts. Also, water availability of larger aquifer systems can be positively affected by additional recharge from inter-basin groundwater flows.

  20. The sensitivity of soil respiration to soil temperature, moisture, and carbon supply at the global scale.

    Hursh, Andrew; Ballantyne, Ashley; Cooper, Leila; Maneta, Marco; Kimball, John; Watts, Jennifer

    2017-05-01

    Soil respiration (Rs) is a major pathway by which fixed carbon in the biosphere is returned to the atmosphere, yet there are limits to our ability to predict respiration rates using environmental drivers at the global scale. While temperature, moisture, carbon supply, and other site characteristics are known to regulate soil respiration rates at plot scales within certain biomes, quantitative frameworks for evaluating the relative importance of these factors across different biomes and at the global scale require tests of the relationships between field estimates and global climatic data. This study evaluates the factors driving Rs at the global scale by linking global datasets of soil moisture, soil temperature, primary productivity, and soil carbon estimates with observations of annual Rs from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB). We find that calibrating models with parabolic soil moisture functions can improve predictive power over similar models with asymptotic functions of mean annual precipitation. Soil temperature is comparable with previously reported air temperature observations used in predicting Rs and is the dominant driver of Rs in global models; however, within certain biomes soil moisture and soil carbon emerge as dominant predictors of Rs. We identify regions where typical temperature-driven responses are further mediated by soil moisture, precipitation, and carbon supply and regions in which environmental controls on high Rs values are difficult to ascertain due to limited field data. Because soil moisture integrates temperature and precipitation dynamics, it can more directly constrain the heterotrophic component of Rs, but global-scale models tend to smooth its spatial heterogeneity by aggregating factors that increase moisture variability within and across biomes. We compare statistical and mechanistic models that provide independent estimates of global Rs ranging from 83 to 108 Pg yr -1 , but also highlight regions of uncertainty

  1. Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss

    Huss, Matthias; Hock, Regine

    2018-01-01

    Worldwide glacier retreat and associated future runoff changes raise major concerns over the sustainability of global water resources1-4, but global-scale assessments of glacier decline and the resulting hydrological consequences are scarce5,6. Here we compute global glacier runoff changes for 56 large-scale glacierized drainage basins to 2100 and analyse the glacial impact on streamflow. In roughly half of the investigated basins, the modelled annual glacier runoff continues to rise until a maximum (`peak water') is reached, beyond which runoff steadily declines. In the remaining basins, this tipping point has already been passed. Peak water occurs later in basins with larger glaciers and higher ice-cover fractions. Typically, future glacier runoff increases in early summer but decreases in late summer. Although most of the 56 basins have less than 2% ice coverage, by 2100 one-third of them might experience runoff decreases greater than 10% due to glacier mass loss in at least one month of the melt season, with the largest reductions in central Asia and the Andes. We conclude that, even in large-scale basins with minimal ice-cover fraction, the downstream hydrological effects of continued glacier wastage can be substantial, but the magnitudes vary greatly among basins and throughout the melt season.

  2. Improved Hydrology over Peatlands in a Global Land Modeling System

    Bechtold, M.; Delannoy, G.; Reichle, R.; Koster, R.; Mahanama, S.; Roose, Dirk

    2018-01-01

    Peatlands of the Northern Hemisphere represent an important carbon pool that mainly accumulated since the last ice age under permanently wet conditions in specific geological and climatic settings. The carbon balance of peatlands is closely coupled to water table dynamics. Consequently, the future carbon balance over peatlands is strongly dependent on how hydrology in peatlands will react to changing boundary conditions, e.g. due to climate change or regional water level drawdown of connected aquifers or streams. Global land surface modeling over organic-rich regions can provide valuable global-scale insights on where and how peatlands are in transition due to changing boundary conditions. However, the current global land surface models are not able to reproduce typical hydrological dynamics in peatlands well. We implemented specific structural and parametric changes to account for key hydrological characteristics of peatlands into NASA's GEOS-5 Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM, Koster et al. 2000). The main modifications pertain to the modeling of partial inundation, and the definition of peatland-specific runoff and evapotranspiration schemes. We ran a set of simulations on a high performance cluster using different CLSM configurations and validated the results with a newly compiled global in-situ dataset of water table depths in peatlands. The results demonstrate that an update of soil hydraulic properties for peat soils alone does not improve the performance of CLSM over peatlands. However, structural model changes for peatlands are able to improve the skill metrics for water table depth. The validation results for the water table depth indicate a reduction of the bias from 2.5 to 0.2 m, and an improvement of the temporal correlation coefficient from 0.5 to 0.65, and from 0.4 to 0.55 for the anomalies. Our validation data set includes both bogs (rain-fed) and fens (ground and/or surface water influence) and reveals that the metrics improved less for fens. In

  3. Empowering the Girl Child, Improving Global Health.

    Cesario, Sandra K; Moran, Barbara

    The health and productivity of a global society is dependent upon the elimination of gender inequities that prevent girls from achieving their full potential. Although some progress has been made in reducing social, economic, and health disparities between men and women, gender equality continues to be an elusive goal. The Millennium Development Goals (2000-2015) and the Sustainable Development Goals (2015-2030) include intergovernmental aspirations to empower women and stress that change must begin with the girl child. Copyright © 2017 AWHONN, the Association of Women’s Health, Obstetric and Neonatal Nurses. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Scaling a Convection-Resolving RCM to Near-Global Scales

    Leutwyler, D.; Fuhrer, O.; Chadha, T.; Kwasniewski, G.; Hoefler, T.; Lapillonne, X.; Lüthi, D.; Osuna, C.; Schar, C.; Schulthess, T. C.; Vogt, H.

    2017-12-01

    In the recent years, first decade-long kilometer-scale resolution RCM simulations have been performed on continental-scale computational domains. However, the size of the planet Earth is still an order of magnitude larger and thus the computational implications of performing global climate simulations at this resolution are challenging. We explore the gap between the currently established RCM simulations and global simulations by scaling the GPU accelerated version of the COSMO model to a near-global computational domain. To this end, the evolution of an idealized moist baroclinic wave has been simulated over the course of 10 days with a grid spacing of up to 930 m. The computational mesh employs 36'000 x 16'001 x 60 grid points and covers 98.4% of the planet's surface. The code shows perfect weak scaling up to 4'888 Nodes of the Piz Daint supercomputer and yields 0.043 simulated years per day (SYPD) which is approximately one seventh of the 0.2-0.3 SYPD required to conduct AMIP-type simulations. However, at half the resolution (1.9 km) we've observed 0.23 SYPD. Besides formation of frontal precipitating systems containing embedded explicitly-resolved convective motions, the simulations reveal a secondary instability that leads to cut-off warm-core cyclonic vortices in the cyclone's core, once the grid spacing is refined to the kilometer scale. The explicit representation of embedded moist convection and the representation of the previously unresolved instabilities exhibit a physically different behavior in comparison to coarser-resolution simulations. The study demonstrates that global climate simulations using kilometer-scale resolution are imminent and serves as a baseline benchmark for global climate model applications and future exascale supercomputing systems.

  5. Spatial Scaling of Global Rainfall and Flood Extremes

    Devineni, Naresh; Lall, Upmanu; Xi, Chen; Ward, Philip

    2014-05-01

    Floods associated with severe storms are a significant source of risk for property, life and supply chains. These property losses tend to be determined as much by the duration and spatial extent of flooding as by the depth and velocity of inundation. High duration floods are typically induced by persistent rainfall (up to 30 day duration) as seen recently in Thailand, Pakistan, the Ohio and the Mississippi Rivers, France, and Germany. Events related to persistent and recurrent rainfall appear to correspond to the persistence of specific global climate patterns that may be identifiable from global, historical data fields, and also from climate models that project future conditions. In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of the spatial manifestation of the rainfall exceedances and floods. We present the first ever results on a global analysis of the scaling characteristics of extreme rainfall and flood event duration, volumes and contiguous flooded areas as a result of large scale organization of long duration rainfall events. Results are organized by latitude and with reference to the phases of ENSO, and reveal surprising invariance across latitude. Speculation as to the potential relation to the dynamical factors is presented

  6. Toward a global multi-scale heliophysics observatory

    Semeter, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    We live within the only known stellar-planetary system that supports life. What we learn about this system is not only relevant to human society and its expanding reach beyond Earth's surface, but also to our understanding of the origins and evolution of life in the universe. Heliophysics is focused on solar-terrestrial interactions mediated by the magnetic and plasma environment surrounding the planet. A defining feature of energy flow through this environment is interaction across physical scales. A solar disturbance aimed at Earth can excite geospace variability on scales ranging from thousands of kilometers (e.g., global convection, region 1 and 2 currents, electrojet intensifications) to 10's of meters (e.g., equatorial spread-F, dispersive Alfven waves, plasma instabilities). Most "geospace observatory" concepts are focused on a single modality (e.g., HF/UHF radar, magnetometer, optical) providing a limited parameter set over a particular spatiotemporal resolution. Data assimilation methods have been developed to couple heterogeneous and distributed observations, but resolution has typically been prescribed a-priori and according to physical assumptions. This paper develops a conceptual framework for the next generation multi-scale heliophysics observatory, capable of revealing and quantifying the complete spectrum of cross-scale interactions occurring globally within the geospace system. The envisioned concept leverages existing assets, enlists citizen scientists, and exploits low-cost access to the geospace environment. Examples are presented where distributed multi-scale observations have resulted in substantial new insight into the inner workings of our stellar-planetary system.

  7. Continent-scale global change attribution in European birds - combining annual and decadal time scales

    Jørgensen, Peter Søgaard; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Thorup, Kasper

    2016-01-01

    foundation for attributing species responses to global change may be achieved by complementing an attributes-based approach by one estimating the relationship between repeated measures of organismal and environmental changes over short time scales. To assess the benefit of this multiscale perspective, we...... on or in the peak of the breeding season with the largest effect sizes observed in cooler parts of species' climatic ranges. Our results document the potential of combining time scales and integrating both species attributes and environmental variables for global change attribution. We suggest such an approach......Species attributes are commonly used to infer impacts of environmental change on multiyear species trends, e.g. decadal changes in population size. However, by themselves attributes are of limited value in global change attribution since they do not measure the changing environment. A broader...

  8. On global H-mode scaling laws for JET

    Kardaun, O.; Lackner, K.; Thomsen, K.; Christiansen, J.; Cordey, J.; Gottardi, N.; Keilhacker, M.; Smeulders, P.

    1989-01-01

    Investigation of the scaling of the energy confinement time τ E with various plasma parameters has since long been an interesting, albeit not uncontroversial topic in plasma physics. Various global scaling laws have been derived for ohmic as well as (NBI and/or RF heated) L-mode discharges. Due to the scarce availability of computerised, extensive and validated H-mode datasets, systematic statistical analysis of H-mode scaling behaviour has hitherto been limited. A common approach is to fit the available H-mode data by an L-mode scaling law (e.g., Kaye-Goldston, Rebut-Lallia) with one or two adjustable constant terms. In this contribution we will consider the alternative approach of fitting all free parameters of various simple scaling models to two recently compiled datasets consisting of about 140 ELM-free and 40 ELMy H-mode discharges, measured at JET in the period 1986-1988. From this period, approximately all known H-mode shots have been included that satisfy the following criteria: D-injected D + discharges with no RF heating, a sufficiently long (≥300 ms) and regular P NBI flat-top, and validated main diagnostics. (author) 13 refs., 1 tab

  9. Terrestrial nitrogen-carbon cycle interactions at the global scale.

    Zaehle, S

    2013-07-05

    Interactions between the terrestrial nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) cycles shape the response of ecosystems to global change. However, the global distribution of nitrogen availability and its importance in global biogeochemistry and biogeochemical interactions with the climate system remain uncertain. Based on projections of a terrestrial biosphere model scaling ecological understanding of nitrogen-carbon cycle interactions to global scales, anthropogenic nitrogen additions since 1860 are estimated to have enriched the terrestrial biosphere by 1.3 Pg N, supporting the sequestration of 11.2 Pg C. Over the same time period, CO2 fertilization has increased terrestrial carbon storage by 134.0 Pg C, increasing the terrestrial nitrogen stock by 1.2 Pg N. In 2001-2010, terrestrial ecosystems sequestered an estimated total of 27 Tg N yr(-1) (1.9 Pg C yr(-1)), of which 10 Tg N yr(-1) (0.2 Pg C yr(-1)) are due to anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. Nitrogen availability already limits terrestrial carbon sequestration in the boreal and temperate zone, and will constrain future carbon sequestration in response to CO2 fertilization (regionally by up to 70% compared with an estimate without considering nitrogen-carbon interactions). This reduced terrestrial carbon uptake will probably dominate the role of the terrestrial nitrogen cycle in the climate system, as it accelerates the accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere. However, increases of N2O emissions owing to anthropogenic nitrogen and climate change (at a rate of approx. 0.5 Tg N yr(-1) per 1°C degree climate warming) will add an important long-term climate forcing.

  10. Top-down constraints on disturbance dynamics in the terrestrial carbon cycle: effects at global and regional scales

    Bloom, A. A.; Exbrayat, J. F.; van der Velde, I.; Peters, W.; Williams, M.

    2014-01-01

    Large uncertainties preside over terrestrial carbon flux estimates on a global scale. In particular, the strongly coupled dynamics between net ecosystem productivity and disturbance C losses are poorly constrained. To gain an improved understanding of ecosystem C dynamics from regional to global

  11. Improving predictions of large scale soil carbon dynamics: Integration of fine-scale hydrological and biogeochemical processes, scaling, and benchmarking

    Riley, W. J.; Dwivedi, D.; Ghimire, B.; Hoffman, F. M.; Pau, G. S. H.; Randerson, J. T.; Shen, C.; Tang, J.; Zhu, Q.

    2015-12-01

    Numerical model representations of decadal- to centennial-scale soil-carbon dynamics are a dominant cause of uncertainty in climate change predictions. Recent attempts by some Earth System Model (ESM) teams to integrate previously unrepresented soil processes (e.g., explicit microbial processes, abiotic interactions with mineral surfaces, vertical transport), poor performance of many ESM land models against large-scale and experimental manipulation observations, and complexities associated with spatial heterogeneity highlight the nascent nature of our community's ability to accurately predict future soil carbon dynamics. I will present recent work from our group to develop a modeling framework to integrate pore-, column-, watershed-, and global-scale soil process representations into an ESM (ACME), and apply the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) package for evaluation. At the column scale and across a wide range of sites, observed depth-resolved carbon stocks and their 14C derived turnover times can be explained by a model with explicit representation of two microbial populations, a simple representation of mineralogy, and vertical transport. Integrating soil and plant dynamics requires a 'process-scaling' approach, since all aspects of the multi-nutrient system cannot be explicitly resolved at ESM scales. I will show that one approach, the Equilibrium Chemistry Approximation, improves predictions of forest nitrogen and phosphorus experimental manipulations and leads to very different global soil carbon predictions. Translating model representations from the site- to ESM-scale requires a spatial scaling approach that either explicitly resolves the relevant processes, or more practically, accounts for fine-resolution dynamics at coarser scales. To that end, I will present recent watershed-scale modeling work that applies reduced order model methods to accurately scale fine-resolution soil carbon dynamics to coarse-resolution simulations. Finally, we

  12. Aerosol-cloud interactions from urban, regional to global scales

    Wang, Yuan [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (United States). Seismological Lab.

    2015-10-01

    The studies in this dissertation aim at advancing our scientific understandings about physical processes involved in the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction and quantitatively assessing the impacts of aerosols on the cloud systems with diverse scales over the globe on the basis of the observational data analysis and various modeling studies. As recognized in the Fifth Assessment Report by the Inter-government Panel on Climate Change, the magnitude of radiative forcing by atmospheric aerosols is highly uncertain, representing the largest uncertainty in projections of future climate by anthropogenic activities. By using a newly implemented cloud microphysical scheme in the cloud-resolving model, the thesis assesses aerosol-cloud interaction for distinct weather systems, ranging from individual cumulus to mesoscale convective systems. This thesis also introduces a novel hierarchical modeling approach that solves a long outstanding mismatch between simulations by regional weather models and global climate models in the climate modeling community. More importantly, the thesis provides key scientific solutions to several challenging questions in climate science, including the global impacts of the Asian pollution. As scientists wrestle with the complexities of climate change in response to varied anthropogenic forcing, perhaps no problem is more challenging than the understanding of the impacts of atmospheric aerosols from air pollution on clouds and the global circulation.

  13. Aerosol-cloud interactions from urban, regional to global scales

    Wang, Yuan

    2015-01-01

    The studies in this dissertation aim at advancing our scientific understandings about physical processes involved in the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction and quantitatively assessing the impacts of aerosols on the cloud systems with diverse scales over the globe on the basis of the observational data analysis and various modeling studies. As recognized in the Fifth Assessment Report by the Inter-government Panel on Climate Change, the magnitude of radiative forcing by atmospheric aerosols is highly uncertain, representing the largest uncertainty in projections of future climate by anthropogenic activities. By using a newly implemented cloud microphysical scheme in the cloud-resolving model, the thesis assesses aerosol-cloud interaction for distinct weather systems, ranging from individual cumulus to mesoscale convective systems. This thesis also introduces a novel hierarchical modeling approach that solves a long outstanding mismatch between simulations by regional weather models and global climate models in the climate modeling community. More importantly, the thesis provides key scientific solutions to several challenging questions in climate science, including the global impacts of the Asian pollution. As scientists wrestle with the complexities of climate change in response to varied anthropogenic forcing, perhaps no problem is more challenging than the understanding of the impacts of atmospheric aerosols from air pollution on clouds and the global circulation.

  14. Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Primary Production at a Global Scale

    Rousseaux, Cecile Severine; Gregg, Watson W.

    2013-01-01

    We used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of four phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. First, we assessed the contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production at a global scale for the period 1998-2011. Globally, diatoms contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production ((is)approximately 50%, the equivalent of 20 PgC·y1). Coccolithophores and chlorophytes each contributed approximately 20% ((is) approximately 7 PgC·y1) of the total primary production and cyanobacteria represented about 10% ((is) approximately 4 PgC·y1) of the total primary production. Primary production by diatoms was highest in the high latitudes ((is) greater than 40 deg) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We then assessed interannual variability of this group-specific primary production over the period 1998-2011. Globally the annual relative contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production varied by maximum 4% (1-2 PgC·y1). We assessed the effects of climate variability on group-specific primary production using global (i.e., Multivariate El Niño Index, MEI) and "regional" climate indices (e.g., Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability as indicated by significant correlation (p (is) less than 0.05) between the MEI and the group-specific primary production from all groups except coccolithophores. In the Atlantic, climate variability as indicated by NAO was significantly correlated to the primary production of 2 out of the 4 groups in the North Central Atlantic (diatoms/cyanobacteria) and in the North Atlantic (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). We found that climate variability as indicated by SAM had only a limited effect

  15. Regional-Scale Forcing and Feedbacks from Alternative Scenarios of Global-Scale Land Use Change

    Jones, A. D.; Chini, L. P.; Collins, W.; Janetos, A. C.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Thomson, A. M.; Torn, M. S.

    2011-12-01

    Future patterns of land use change depend critically on the degree to which terrestrial carbon management strategies, such as biological carbon sequestration and biofuels, are utilized in order to mitigate global climate change. Furthermore, land use change associated with terrestrial carbon management induces biogeophysical changes to surface energy budgets that perturb climate at regional and possibly global scales, activating different feedback processes depending on the nature and location of the land use change. As a first step in a broader effort to create an integrated earth system model, we examine two scenarios of future anthropogenic activity generated by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) within the full-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Each scenario stabilizes radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols at 4.5 W/m^2. In the first, stabilization is achieved through a universal carbon tax that values terrestrial carbon equally with fossil carbon, leading to modest afforestation globally and low biofuel utilization. In the second scenario, stabilization is achieved with a tax on fossil fuel and industrial carbon alone. In this case, biofuel utilization increases dramatically and crop area expands to claim approximately 50% of forest cover globally. By design, these scenarios exhibit identical climate forcing from atmospheric constituents. Thus, differences among them can be attributed to the biogeophysical effects of land use change. In addition, we utilize offline radiative transfer and offline land model simulations to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms operating in different regions. We find that boreal deforestation has a strong climatic signature due to significant albedo change coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Tropical deforestation, on the other hand, has more subtle effects on climate. Globally, the two scenarios yield warming trends over the 21st century that differ by 0.5 degrees Celsius. This

  16. Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

    Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

    2014-11-01

    Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

  17. Scaling future tropical cyclone damage with global mean temperature

    Geiger, T.; Bresch, D.; Frieler, K.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the most damaging natural hazards and severely affectmany countries around the globe each year. Their nominal impact is projected to increasesubstantially as the exposed coastal population grows, per capita income increases, andanthropogenic climate change manifests. The magnitude of this increase, however, variesacross regions and is obscured by the stochastic behaviour of TCs, so far impeding arigorous quantification of trends in TC damage with global mean temperature (GMT) rise. Here, we build on the large sample of spatially explicit TCs simulations generated withinISIMIP(2b) for 1) pre-industrial conditions, 2) the historical period, and 3) future projectionsunder RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 to estimate future TC damage assuming fixed present-daysocio-economic conditions or SSP-based future projections of population patterns andincome. Damage estimates will be based on region-specific empirical damage modelsderived from reported damages and accounting for regional characteristics of vulnerability.Different combinations of 1) socio-economic drivers with pre-industrial climate or 2) changingclimate with fixed socio-economic conditions will be used to derive functional relationshipsbetween regionally aggregated changes in damages on one hand and global meantemperature and socio-economic predictors on the other hand. The obtained region-specific scaling of future TC damage with GMT provides valuable inputfor IPCC's special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C by quantifying theincremental changes in impact with global warming. The approach allows for an update ofdamage functions used in integrated assessment models, and contributes to assessing theadequateness of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies.

  18. Global Scale Remote Sensing Monitoring of Endorheic Lake Systems

    Scuderi, L. A.

    2010-12-01

    Semi-arid regions of the world contain thousands of endorheic lakes in large shallow basins. Due to their generally remote locations few are continuously monitored. Documentation of recent variability is essential to assessing how endorheic lakes respond to short-term meteorological conditions and longer-term decadal-scale climatic variability and is critical in determining future disturbance of hydrological regimes with respect to predicted warming and drying in the mid-latitudes. Short- and long-term departures from climatic averages, rapid environmental shifts and increased population pressures may result in significant fluctuations in the hydrologic budgets of these lakes and adversely impact endorheic lake/basin ecosystems. Information on flooding variability is also critical in estimating changes in P/E balances and on the production of exposed and easily deflated surfaces that may impact dust loading locally and regionally. In order to provide information on how these lakes respond we need to understand how entire systems respond hydrologically to different climatic inputs. This requires monitoring and analysis of regional to continental-scale systems. To date, this level of monitoring has not been achieved in an operational system. In order to assess the possibility of creating a global-scale lake inundation database we analyzed two contrasting lake systems in western North America (Mexico and New Mexico, USA) and China (Inner Mongolia). We asked two major questions: 1) is it possible to quickly and accurately quantify current lake inundation events in near real time using remote sensing? and, 2) is it possible to differentiate variable meteorological sources and resultant lake inundation responses using this type of database? With respect to these results we outline an automated lake monitoring approach using MODIS data and real-time processing systems that may provide future global monitoring capabilities.

  19. Development and Psychometric Evaluation of a Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder Scale

    Allen, Michael H; Daniel, David G; Revicki, Dennis A; Canuso, Carla M; Turkoz, Ibrahim; Fu, Dong-Jing; Alphs, Larry; Ishak, K. Jack; Bartko, John J; Lindenmayer, Jean-Pierre

    2012-01-01

    Objective: The Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder scale is a new rating scale adapted from the Clinical Global Impression scale for use in patients with schizoaffective disorder. The psychometric characteristics of the Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder are described.

  20. An experimental system for flood risk forecasting at global scale

    Alfieri, L.; Dottori, F.; Kalas, M.; Lorini, V.; Bianchi, A.; Hirpa, F. A.; Feyen, L.; Salamon, P.

    2016-12-01

    Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by an increasing range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasts, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. To this end, we have developed an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment based on the daily forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The methodology translates GloFAS streamflow forecasts into event-based flood hazard maps based on the predicted flow magnitude and the forecast lead time and a database of flood hazard maps with global coverage. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information to derive flood risk. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To further increase the reliability of the proposed methodology we integrated model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification of impact forecasts. The preliminary tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management. In particular, the link with social media is crucial for improving the accuracy of impact predictions.

  1. Global Scale Periodic Responses in Saturn’s Magnetosphere

    Jia, Xianzhe; Kivelson, Margaret G.

    2017-10-01

    Despite having an axisymmetric internal magnetic field, Saturn’s magnetosphere exhibits periodic modulations in a variety of properties at periods close to the planetary rotation period. While the source of the periodicity remains unidentified, it is evident from Cassini observations that much of Saturn’s magnetospheric structure and dynamics is dominated by global-scale responses to the driving source of the periodicity. We have developed a global MHD model in which a rotating field-aligned current system is introduced by imposing vortical flows in the high-latitude ionosphere in order to simulate the magnetospheric periodicities. The model has been utilized to quantitatively characterize various periodic responses in the magnetosphere, such as the displacement of the magnetopause and bow shock and flapping of the tail plasma sheet, all of which show quantitative agreement with Cassini observations. One of our model predictions is periodic release of plasmoids in the tail that occurs preferentially in the midnight-to-dawn local time sector during each rotation cycle. Here we present detailed analysis of the periodic responses seen in our simulations focusing on the properties of plasmoids predicted by the model, including their spatial distribution, occurrence frequency, and mass loss rate. We will compare these modeled parameters with published Cassini observations, and discuss their implications for interpreting in-situ measurements.

  2. Global Wildfire Forecasts Using Large Scale Climate Indices

    Shen, Huizhong; Tao, Shu

    2016-04-01

    Using weather readings, fire early warning can provided forecast 4-6 hour in advance to minimize fire loss. The benefit would be dramatically enhanced if relatively accurate long-term projection can be also provided. Here we present a novel method for predicting global fire season severity (FSS) at least three months in advance using multiple large-scale climate indices (CIs). The predictive ability is proven effective for various geographic locations and resolution. Globally, as well as in most continents, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant driving force controlling interannual FSS variability, whereas other CIs also play indispensable roles. We found that a moderate El Niño event is responsible for 465 (272-658 as interquartile range) Tg carbon release and an annual increase of 29,500 (24,500-34,800) deaths from inhalation exposure to air pollutants. Southeast Asia accounts for half of the deaths. Both intercorrelation and interaction of WPs and CIs are revealed, suggesting possible climate-induced modification of fire responses to weather conditions. Our models can benefit fire management in response to climate change.

  3. Improved moment scaling estimation for multifractal signals

    D. Veneziano

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available A fundamental problem in the analysis of multifractal processes is to estimate the scaling exponent K(q of moments of different order q from data. Conventional estimators use the empirical moments μ^rq=⟨ | εr(τ|q of wavelet coefficients εr(τ, where τ is location and r is resolution. For stationary measures one usually considers "wavelets of order 0" (averages, whereas for functions with multifractal increments one must use wavelets of order at least 1. One obtains K^(q as the slope of log( μ^rq against log(r over a range of r. Negative moments are sensitive to measurement noise and quantization. For them, one typically uses only the local maxima of | εr(τ| (modulus maxima methods. For the positive moments, we modify the standard estimator K^(q to significantly reduce its variance at the expense of a modest increase in the bias. This is done by separately estimating K(q from sub-records and averaging the results. For the negative moments, we show that the standard modulus maxima estimator is biased and, in the case of additive noise or quantization, is not applicable with wavelets of order 1 or higher. For these cases we propose alternative estimators. We also consider the fitting of parametric models of K(q and show how, by splitting the record into sub-records as indicated above, the accuracy of standard methods can be significantly improved.

  4. Global review of open access risk assessment software packages valid for global or continental scale analysis

    Daniell, James; Simpson, Alanna; Gunasekara, Rashmin; Baca, Abigail; Schaefer, Andreas; Ishizawa, Oscar; Murnane, Rick; Tijssen, Annegien; Deparday, Vivien; Forni, Marc; Himmelfarb, Anne; Leder, Jan

    2015-04-01

    Over the past few decades, a plethora of open access software packages for the calculation of earthquake, volcanic, tsunami, storm surge, wind and flood have been produced globally. As part of the World Bank GFDRR Review released at the Understanding Risk 2014 Conference, over 80 such open access risk assessment software packages were examined. Commercial software was not considered in the evaluation. A preliminary analysis was used to determine whether the 80 models were currently supported and if they were open access. This process was used to select a subset of 31 models that include 8 earthquake models, 4 cyclone models, 11 flood models, and 8 storm surge/tsunami models for more detailed analysis. By using multi-criteria analysis (MCDA) and simple descriptions of the software uses, the review allows users to select a few relevant software packages for their own testing and development. The detailed analysis evaluated the models on the basis of over 100 criteria and provides a synopsis of available open access natural hazard risk modelling tools. In addition, volcano software packages have since been added making the compendium of risk software tools in excess of 100. There has been a huge increase in the quality and availability of open access/source software over the past few years. For example, private entities such as Deltares now have an open source policy regarding some flood models (NGHS). In addition, leaders in developing risk models in the public sector, such as Geoscience Australia (EQRM, TCRM, TsuDAT, AnuGA) or CAPRA (ERN-Flood, Hurricane, CRISIS2007 etc.), are launching and/or helping many other initiatives. As we achieve greater interoperability between modelling tools, we will also achieve a future wherein different open source and open access modelling tools will be increasingly connected and adapted towards unified multi-risk model platforms and highly customised solutions. It was seen that many software tools could be improved by enabling user

  5. Sub-seasonal predictability of water scarcity at global and local scale

    Wanders, N.; Wada, Y.; Wood, E. F.

    2016-12-01

    Forecasting the water demand and availability for agriculture and energy production has been neglected in previous research, partly due to the fact that most large-scale hydrological models lack the skill to forecast human water demands at sub-seasonal time scale. We study the potential of a sub-seasonal water scarcity forecasting system for improved water management decision making and improved estimates of water demand and availability. We have generated 32 years of global sub-seasonal multi-model water availability, demand and scarcity forecasts. The quality of the forecasts is compared to a reference forecast derived from resampling historic weather observations. The newly developed system has been evaluated for both the global scale and in a real-time local application in the Sacramento valley for the Trinity, Shasta and Oroville reservoirs, where the water demand for agriculture and hydropower is high. On the global scale we find that the reference forecast shows high initial forecast skill (up to 8 months) for water scarcity in the eastern US, Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Adding dynamical sub-seasonal forecasts results in a clear improvement for most regions in the world, increasing the forecasts' lead time by 2 or more months on average. The strongest improvements are found in the US, Brazil, Central Asia and Australia. For the Sacramento valley we can accurately predict anomalies in the reservoir inflow, hydropower potential and the downstream irrigation water demand 6 months in advance. This allow us to forecast potential water scarcity in the Sacramento valley and adjust the reservoir management to prevent deficits in energy or irrigation water availability. The newly developed forecast system shows that it is possible to reduce the vulnerability to upcoming water scarcity events and allows optimization of the distribution of the available water between the agricultural and energy sector half a year in advance.

  6. NASA/MSFC FY88 Global Scale Atmospheric Processes Research Program Review

    Wilson, Greg S. (Editor); Leslie, Fred W. (Editor); Arnold, J. E. (Editor)

    1989-01-01

    Interest in environmental issues and the magnitude of the environmental changes continues. One way to gain more understanding of the atmosphere is to make measurements on a global scale from space. The Earth Observation System is a series of new sensors to measure globally atmospheric parameters. Analysis of satellite data by developing algorithms to interpret the radiance information improves the understanding and also defines requirements for these sensors. One measure of knowledge of the atmosphere lies in the ability to predict its behavior. Use of numerical and experimental models provides a better understanding of these processes. These efforts are described in the context of satellite data analysis and fundamental studies of atmospheric dynamics which examine selected processes important to the global circulation.

  7. MINLO: Multi-scale improved NLO

    Hamilton, Keith; Zanderighi, Giulia

    2012-01-01

    In the present work we consider the assignment of the factorization and renormalization scales in hadron collider processes with associated jet production, at next-to-leading order (NLO) in perturbation theory. We propose a simple, definite prescription to this end, including Sudakov form factors to consistently account for the distinct kinematic scales occuring in such collisions. The scheme yields results that are accurate at NLO and, for a large class of observables, it resums to all orders the large logarithms that arise from kinematic configurations involving disparate scales. In practical terms the method is most simply understood as an NLO extension of the matrix element reweighting procedure employed in tree level matrix element-parton shower merging algorithms. By way of a proof-of-concept, we apply the method to Higgs and Z boson production in association with up to two jets.

  8. Consolidating drug data on a global scale using Linked Data.

    Jovanovik, Milos; Trajanov, Dimitar

    2017-01-21

    Drug product data is available on the Web in a distributed fashion. The reasons lie within the regulatory domains, which exist on a national level. As a consequence, the drug data available on the Web are independently curated by national institutions from each country, leaving the data in varying languages, with a varying structure, granularity level and format, on different locations on the Web. Therefore, one of the main challenges in the realm of drug data is the consolidation and integration of large amounts of heterogeneous data into a comprehensive dataspace, for the purpose of developing data-driven applications. In recent years, the adoption of the Linked Data principles has enabled data publishers to provide structured data on the Web and contextually interlink them with other public datasets, effectively de-siloing them. Defining methodological guidelines and specialized tools for generating Linked Data in the drug domain, applicable on a global scale, is a crucial step to achieving the necessary levels of data consolidation and alignment needed for the development of a global dataset of drug product data. This dataset would then enable a myriad of new usage scenarios, which can, for instance, provide insight into the global availability of different drug categories in different parts of the world. We developed a methodology and a set of tools which support the process of generating Linked Data in the drug domain. Using them, we generated the LinkedDrugs dataset by seamlessly transforming, consolidating and publishing high-quality, 5-star Linked Drug Data from twenty-three countries, containing over 248,000 drug products, over 99,000,000 RDF triples and over 278,000 links to generic drugs from the LOD Cloud. Using the linked nature of the dataset, we demonstrate its ability to support advanced usage scenarios in the drug domain. The process of generating the LinkedDrugs dataset demonstrates the applicability of the methodological guidelines and the

  9. An Effective Model for Improving Global Health Nursing Competence.

    Kang, Sun-Joo

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposed an effective model for improving global health nursing competence among undergraduate students. A descriptive case study was conducted by evaluation of four implemented programs by the author. All programs were conducted with students majoring in nursing and healthcare, where the researcher was a program director, professor, or facilitator. These programs were analyzed in terms of students' needs assessment, program design, and implementation and evaluation factors. The concept and composition of global nursing competence, identified within previous studies, were deemed appropriate in all of our programs. Program composition varied from curricular to extracurricular domains. During the implementation phase, some of the programs included non-Korean students to improve cultural diversity and overcome language barriers. Qualitative and quantitative surveys were conducted to assess program efficacy. Data triangulation from students' reflective journals was examined. Additionally, students' awareness regarding changes within global health nursing, improved critical thinking, cultural understanding, and global leadership skills were investigated pre- and post-program implementation. The importance of identifying students' needs regarding global nursing competence when developing appropriate curricula is discussed.

  10. An Effective Model for Improving Global Health Nursing Competence

    Sunjoo Kang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper developed an effective model for improving global health nursing competence among undergraduate students. A descriptive case study was conducted by implementing four programs. All programs were conducted with students majoring nursing and healthcare, where the researcher was a program director, professor, or facilitator. These programs were analyzed in terms of students’ needs assessment, program design, and implementation and evaluation factors. The concept and composition of global nursing competence, identified within previous studies, were deemed appropriate in all of our programs. Program composition varied from curricular to extracurricular domains. During the implementation phase, most of the programs included non-Korean students to improve cultural diversity and overcome language barriers. Qualitative and quantitative surveys were conducted to assess program efficacy. Data triangulation from students’ reflective journals was examined. Additionally, students’ awareness regarding changes within global health nursing, improved critical thinking, cultural understanding, and global leadership skills were investigated pre and post-program implementation. We discuss how identifying students’ needs regarding global nursing competence when developing appropriate curricula.

  11. Global-Scale Hydrology: Simple Characterization of Complex Simulation

    Koster, Randal D.

    1999-01-01

    Atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMS) are unique and valuable tools for the analysis of large-scale hydrology. AGCM simulations of climate provide tremendous amounts of hydrological data with a spatial and temporal coverage unmatched by observation systems. To the extent that the AGCM behaves realistically, these data can shed light on the nature of the real world's hydrological cycle. In the first part of the seminar, I will describe the hydrological cycle in a typical AGCM, with some emphasis on the validation of simulated precipitation against observations. The second part of the seminar will focus on a key goal in large-scale hydrology studies, namely the identification of simple, overarching controls on hydrological behavior hidden amidst the tremendous amounts of data produced by the highly complex AGCM parameterizations. In particular, I will show that a simple 50-year-old climatological relation (and a recent extension we made to it) successfully predicts, to first order, both the annual mean and the interannual variability of simulated evaporation and runoff fluxes. The seminar will conclude with an example of a practical application of global hydrology studies. The accurate prediction of weather statistics several months in advance would have tremendous societal benefits, and conventional wisdom today points at the use of coupled ocean-atmosphere-land models for such seasonal-to-interannual prediction. Understanding the hydrological cycle in AGCMs is critical to establishing the potential for such prediction. Our own studies show, among other things, that soil moisture retention can lead to significant precipitation predictability in many midlatitude and tropical regions.

  12. Scaled biotic disruption during early Eocene global warming events

    S. J. Gibbs

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Late Paleocene and early Eocene hyperthermals are transient warming events associated with massive perturbations of the global carbon cycle, and are considered partial analogues for current anthropogenic climate change. Because the magnitude of carbon release varied between the events, they are natural experiments ideal for exploring the relationship between carbon cycle perturbations, climate change and biotic response. Here we quantify marine biotic variability through three million years of the early Eocene that include five hyperthermals, utilizing a method that allows us to integrate the records of different plankton groups through scenarios ranging from background to major extinction events. Our long time-series calcareous nannoplankton record indicates a scaling of biotic disruption to climate change associated with the amount of carbon released during the various hyperthermals. Critically, only the three largest hyperthermals, the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2 and the I1 event, show above-background variance, suggesting that the magnitude of carbon input and associated climate change needs to surpass a threshold value to cause significant biotic disruption.

  13. Assessment of competence for caesarean section with global rating scale

    Qureshi, R.N.; Ali, S.K.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To establish as reliable and valid the nine-point global rating scale for assessing residents' independent performance of Caesarean Section. Methods: The validation study was conducted at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Aga Khan University Hospital, from April to December 2008, and comprised 15 residents during 40 Caesarean Sections over 9 months. Independently two evaluators rated each procedure and the difficulty of each case. Results: The observations per faculty ranged from 1-8 (mean 4.07+- 2.56). The Year 4 residents were observed the most i.e. 32 (40%), followed by Year 3, 30 (37.5%); Year 2; 14 (17.5%); and Year 1, 4 (5%). Mean time required for observation of the surgery was 43.81+-14.28 (range: 20-90) with a mode of 45 min. Mean aggregate rating on all items showed gradual progression with the year of residency. The assessment tool had an internal consistency reliability (Cronbach's alpha) of 0.9097 with low inter-rater reliability. Conclusion: The evaluation tool was found to be reliable and valid for evaluating a resident's competence for performing Caesarean Section. Training of the assessors is required for a better inter-rater agreement. (author)

  14. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L. E.

    2015-01-01

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary. PMID:26259555

  15. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E

    2015-08-11

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.

  16. Attribution of Large-Scale Climate Patterns to Seasonal Peak-Flow and Prospects for Prediction Globally

    Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip; Block, Paul

    2018-02-01

    Flood-related fatalities and impacts on society surpass those from all other natural disasters globally. While the inclusion of large-scale climate drivers in streamflow (or high-flow) prediction has been widely studied, an explicit link to global-scale long-lead prediction is lacking, which can lead to an improved understanding of potential flood propensity. Here we attribute seasonal peak-flow to large-scale climate patterns, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), using streamflow station observations and simulations from PCR-GLOBWB, a global-scale hydrologic model. Statistically significantly correlated climate patterns and streamflow autocorrelation are subsequently applied as predictors to build a global-scale season-ahead prediction model, with prediction performance evaluated by the mean squared error skill score (MSESS) and the categorical Gerrity skill score (GSS). Globally, fair-to-good prediction skill (20% ≤ MSESS and 0.2 ≤ GSS) is evident for a number of locations (28% of stations and 29% of land area), most notably in data-poor regions (e.g., West and Central Africa). The persistence of such relevant climate patterns can improve understanding of the propensity for floods at the seasonal scale. The prediction approach developed here lays the groundwork for further improving local-scale seasonal peak-flow prediction by identifying relevant global-scale climate patterns. This is especially attractive for regions with limited observations and or little capacity to develop flood early warning systems.

  17. Toward an Improved Understanding of the Global Fresh Water Budget

    Hildebrand, Peter H.

    2005-01-01

    The major components of the global fresh water cycle include the evaporation from the land and ocean surfaces, precipitation onto the Ocean and land surfaces, the net atmospheric transport of water from oceanic areas over land, and the return flow of water from the land back into the ocean. The additional components of oceanic water transport are few, principally, the mixing of fresh water through the oceanic boundary layer, transport by ocean currents, and sea ice processes. On land the situation is considerably more complex, and includes the deposition of rain and snow on land; water flow in runoff; infiltration of water into the soil and groundwater; storage of water in soil, lakes and streams, and groundwater; polar and glacial ice; and use of water in vegetation and human activities. Knowledge of the key terms in the fresh water flux budget is poor. Some components of the budget, e.g. precipitation, runoff, storage, are measured with variable accuracy across the globe. We are just now obtaining precise measurements of the major components of global fresh water storage in global ice and ground water. The easily accessible fresh water sources in rivers, lakes and snow runoff are only adequately measured in the more affluent portions of the world. presents proposals are suggesting methods of making global measurements of these quantities from space. At the same time, knowledge of the global fresh water resources under the effects of climate change is of increasing importance and the human population grows. This paper provides an overview of the state of knowledge of the global fresh water budget, evaluating the accuracy of various global water budget measuring and modeling techniques. We review the measurement capabilities of satellite instruments as compared with field validation studies and modeling approaches. Based on these analyses, and on the goal of improved knowledge of the global fresh water budget under the effects of climate change, we suggest

  18. Optimizing rice yields while minimizing yield-scaled global warming potential.

    Pittelkow, Cameron M; Adviento-Borbe, Maria A; van Kessel, Chris; Hill, James E; Linquist, Bruce A

    2014-05-01

    To meet growing global food demand with limited land and reduced environmental impact, agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are increasingly evaluated with respect to crop productivity, i.e., on a yield-scaled as opposed to area basis. Here, we compiled available field data on CH4 and N2 O emissions from rice production systems to test the hypothesis that in response to fertilizer nitrogen (N) addition, yield-scaled global warming potential (GWP) will be minimized at N rates that maximize yields. Within each study, yield N surplus was calculated to estimate deficit or excess N application rates with respect to the optimal N rate (defined as the N rate at which maximum yield was achieved). Relationships between yield N surplus and GHG emissions were assessed using linear and nonlinear mixed-effects models. Results indicate that yields increased in response to increasing N surplus when moving from deficit to optimal N rates. At N rates contributing to a yield N surplus, N2 O and yield-scaled N2 O emissions increased exponentially. In contrast, CH4 emissions were not impacted by N inputs. Accordingly, yield-scaled CH4 emissions decreased with N addition. Overall, yield-scaled GWP was minimized at optimal N rates, decreasing by 21% compared to treatments without N addition. These results are unique compared to aerobic cropping systems in which N2 O emissions are the primary contributor to GWP, meaning yield-scaled GWP may not necessarily decrease for aerobic crops when yields are optimized by N fertilizer addition. Balancing gains in agricultural productivity with climate change concerns, this work supports the concept that high rice yields can be achieved with minimal yield-scaled GWP through optimal N application rates. Moreover, additional improvements in N use efficiency may further reduce yield-scaled GWP, thereby strengthening the economic and environmental sustainability of rice systems. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Primary sources of selected POPs: regional and global scale emission inventories

    Breivik, Knut; Alcock, Ruth; Li Yifan; Bailey, Robert E.; Fiedler, Heidelore; Pacyna, Jozef M

    2004-03-01

    During the last decade, a number of studies have been devoted to the sources and emissions of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) at regional and global scales. While significant improvements in knowledge have been achieved for some pesticides, the quantitative understanding of the emission processes and emission patterns for 'non-pesticide' POPs are still considered limited. The key issues remaining for the non-pesticide POPs are in part determined by their general source classification. For industrial chemicals, such as the polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), there is considerable uncertainty with respect to the relative importance of atmospheric emissions from various source categories. For PCBs, temperature is discussed as a potential key factor influencing atmospheric emission levels and patterns. When it comes to the unintentional by-products of combustion and industrial processes (PCDD/Fs), there is still a large uncertainty with respect to the relative contribution of emissions from unregulated sources such as backyard barrel burning that requires further consideration and characterisation. For hexachlorobenzene (HCB), the relative importance of primary and secondary atmospheric emissions in controlling current atmospheric concentrations remains one of the key uncertainties. While these and other issues may remain unresolved, knowledge concerning the emissions of POPs is a prerequisite for any attempt to understand and predict the distribution and fate of these chemicals on a regional and global scale as well as to efficiently minimise future environmental burdens. - Knowledge of primary emissions is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting POPs on a regional/global scale.

  20. Primary sources of selected POPs: regional and global scale emission inventories

    Breivik, Knut; Alcock, Ruth; Li Yifan; Bailey, Robert E.; Fiedler, Heidelore; Pacyna, Jozef M.

    2004-01-01

    During the last decade, a number of studies have been devoted to the sources and emissions of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) at regional and global scales. While significant improvements in knowledge have been achieved for some pesticides, the quantitative understanding of the emission processes and emission patterns for 'non-pesticide' POPs are still considered limited. The key issues remaining for the non-pesticide POPs are in part determined by their general source classification. For industrial chemicals, such as the polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), there is considerable uncertainty with respect to the relative importance of atmospheric emissions from various source categories. For PCBs, temperature is discussed as a potential key factor influencing atmospheric emission levels and patterns. When it comes to the unintentional by-products of combustion and industrial processes (PCDD/Fs), there is still a large uncertainty with respect to the relative contribution of emissions from unregulated sources such as backyard barrel burning that requires further consideration and characterisation. For hexachlorobenzene (HCB), the relative importance of primary and secondary atmospheric emissions in controlling current atmospheric concentrations remains one of the key uncertainties. While these and other issues may remain unresolved, knowledge concerning the emissions of POPs is a prerequisite for any attempt to understand and predict the distribution and fate of these chemicals on a regional and global scale as well as to efficiently minimise future environmental burdens. - Knowledge of primary emissions is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting POPs on a regional/global scale

  1. Using friends as sensors to detect global-scale contagious outbreaks.

    Manuel Garcia-Herranz

    Full Text Available Recent research has focused on the monitoring of global-scale online data for improved detection of epidemics, mood patterns, movements in the stock market political revolutions, box-office revenues, consumer behaviour and many other important phenomena. However, privacy considerations and the sheer scale of data available online are quickly making global monitoring infeasible, and existing methods do not take full advantage of local network structure to identify key nodes for monitoring. Here, we develop a model of the contagious spread of information in a global-scale, publicly-articulated social network and show that a simple method can yield not just early detection, but advance warning of contagious outbreaks. In this method, we randomly choose a small fraction of nodes in the network and then we randomly choose a friend of each node to include in a group for local monitoring. Using six months of data from most of the full Twittersphere, we show that this friend group is more central in the network and it helps us to detect viral outbreaks of the use of novel hashtags about 7 days earlier than we could with an equal-sized randomly chosen group. Moreover, the method actually works better than expected due to network structure alone because highly central actors are both more active and exhibit increased diversity in the information they transmit to others. These results suggest that local monitoring is not just more efficient, but also more effective, and it may be applied to monitor contagious processes in global-scale networks.

  2. Prospects for improving the representation of coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models

    Holt, Jason; Hyder, Patrick; Ashworth, Mike; Harle, James; Hewitt, Helene T.; Liu, Hedong; New, Adrian L.; Pickles, Stephen; Porter, Andrew; Popova, Ekaterina; Icarus Allen, J.; Siddorn, John; Wood, Richard

    2017-02-01

    Accurately representing coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models represents one of the grand challenges of Earth system science. They are regions of immense societal importance through the goods and services they provide, hazards they pose and their role in global-scale processes and cycles, e.g. carbon fluxes and dense water formation. However, they are poorly represented in the current generation of global ocean models. In this contribution, we aim to briefly characterise the problem, and then to identify the important physical processes, and their scales, needed to address this issue in the context of the options available to resolve these scales globally and the evolving computational landscape.We find barotropic and topographic scales are well resolved by the current state-of-the-art model resolutions, e.g. nominal 1/12°, and still reasonably well resolved at 1/4°; here, the focus is on process representation. We identify tides, vertical coordinates, river inflows and mixing schemes as four areas where modelling approaches can readily be transferred from regional to global modelling with substantial benefit. In terms of finer-scale processes, we find that a 1/12° global model resolves the first baroclinic Rossby radius for only ˜ 8 % of regions benefit of improved resolution and process representation using 1/12° global- and basin-scale northern North Atlantic nucleus for a European model of the ocean (NEMO) simulations; the latter includes tides and a k-ɛ vertical mixing scheme. These are compared with global stratification observations and 19 models from CMIP5. In terms of correlation and basin-wide rms error, the high-resolution models outperform all these CMIP5 models. The model with tides shows improved seasonal cycles compared to the high-resolution model without tides. The benefits of resolution are particularly apparent in eastern boundary upwelling zones.To explore the balance between the size of a globally refined model and that of

  3. Towards forecasting volcanic eruptions on a global scale

    Hooper, A. J.; Heimisson, E. R.; Gaddes, M.; Bagnardi, M.; Sigmundsson, F.; Spaans, K.; Parks, M.; Gudmundsson, M. T.; Ebmeier, S. K.; Holohan, E. P.; Wright, T. J.; Jonsdottir, K.; Hreinsdottir, S.; Dumont, S.; Ofeigsson, B.; Vogfjord, K. S.

    2016-12-01

    Volcanic eruptions can cause loss of life, damage health, and have huge economic impacts, providing strong societal motivation for predicting eruptive behavior prior to and during eruptions. I will present here recent progress we have made in mechanical modelling with a predictive capacity, and how we are expanding volcano monitoring to a global scale. The eruption of Bardarbunga volcano, Iceland, in 2014-2015 was the largest eruption there for more than 200 years, producing 1.6 km3of lava. Prior to eruption, magma propagated almost 50 km beneath the surface, over a period of two weeks. Key questions to answer in advance of such eruptions are: will it erupt, where, how much and for how long? We developed a model based on magma taking a path that maximizes energy release, which aligns well with the actual direction taken. Our model also predicts eruption in a topographic low, as actually occurred. As magma was withdrawn, the volcano surface sagged downwards. A coupled model of magma flow and piston-like collapse predicts a declining magma flow rate and ground subsidence rate, in accordance with that observed. With such a model, observations can be used to predict the timescale and rates of eruption, even before one starts. The primary data needed to constrain these predictive models are measurements of surface deformation. In Iceland, this is achieved using high accuracy GPS, however, most volcanoes have no ground instrumentation. A recent ESA mission, Sentinel-1, can potentially image deformation at almost all subaerial volcanoes every 6 days, using a technique called interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR). This will allow us to detect early stages of magma migration at any volcano, then task other satellites to acquire data at a higher rate. We are working on a system to process all Sentinel-1 data in near-real time, which is a big data challenge. We have also developed new algorithms that maximize signal extraction from each new acquisition and

  4. Global-scale combustion sources of organic aerosols: sensitivity to formation and removal mechanisms

    Tsimpidi, Alexandra P.; Karydis, Vlassis A.; Pandis, Spyros N.; Lelieveld, Jos

    2017-06-01

    Organic compounds from combustion sources such as biomass burning and fossil fuel use are major contributors to the global atmospheric load of aerosols. We analyzed the sensitivity of model-predicted global-scale organic aerosols (OA) to parameters that control primary emissions, photochemical aging, and the scavenging efficiency of organic vapors. We used a computationally efficient module for the description of OA composition and evolution in the atmosphere (ORACLE) of the global chemistry-climate model EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry). A global dataset of aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) measurements was used to evaluate simulated primary (POA) and secondary (SOA) OA concentrations. Model results are sensitive to the emission rates of intermediate-volatility organic compounds (IVOCs) and POA. Assuming enhanced reactivity of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) and IVOCs with OH substantially improved the model performance for SOA. The use of a hybrid approach for the parameterization of the aging of IVOCs had a small effect on predicted SOA levels. The model performance improved by assuming that freshly emitted organic compounds are relatively hydrophobic and become increasingly hygroscopic due to oxidation.

  5. Synthesis and review: Tackling the nitrogen management challenge: from global to local scales

    Reis, Stefan; Bekunda, Mateete; Howard, Clare M.; Karanja, Nancy; Winiwarter, Wilfried; Yan, Xiaoyuan; Bleeker, Albert; Sutton, Mark A.

    2016-12-01

    One of the ‘grand challenges’ of this age is the anthropogenic impact exerted on the nitrogen cycle. Issues of concern range from an excess of fixed nitrogen resulting in environmental pressures for some regions, while for other regions insufficient fixed nitrogen affects food security and may lead to health risks. To address these issues, nitrogen needs to be managed in an integrated fashion, at a variety of scales (from global to local). Such management has to be based on a thorough understanding of the sources of reactive nitrogen released into the environment, its deposition and effects. This requires a comprehensive assessment of the key drivers of changes in the nitrogen cycle both spatially, at the field, regional and global scale and over time. In this focus issue, we address the challenges of managing reactive nitrogen in the context of food production and its impacts on human and ecosystem health. In addition, we discuss the scope for and design of management approaches in regions with too much and too little nitrogen. This focus issue includes several contributions from authors who participated at the N2013 conference in Kampala in November 2013, where delegates compiled and agreed upon the ‘Kampala Statement-for-Action on Reactive Nitrogen in Africa and Globally’. These contributions further underline scientifically the claims of the ‘Kampala Statement’, that simultaneously reducing pollution and increasing nitrogen available in the food system, by improved nitrogen management offers win-wins for environment, health and food security in both developing and developed economies. The specific messages conveyed in the Kampala Statement focus on improving nitrogen management (I), including the reduction of nitrogen losses from agriculture, industry, transport and energy sectors, as well as improving waste treatment and informing individuals and institutions (II). Highlighting the need for innovation and increased awareness among stakeholders (III

  6. With Scale in Mind: A Continuous Improvement Model for Implementation

    Redding, Christopher; Cannata, Marisa; Taylor Haynes, Katherine

    2017-01-01

    The conventional approach to scaling up educational reforms considers the development and testing phases to be distinct from the work of implementing at scale. Decades of research suggest that this approach yields inconsistent and often disappointing improvements for schools most in need. More recent scholarship on scaling school improvement…

  7. Ecosystem service trade-offs across global contexts and scales

    Jeannine Cavender-Bares

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Meeting human needs while sustaining the planet's life support systems is the fundamental challenge of our time. What role sustenance of biodiversity and contrasting ecosystem services should play in achieving a sustainable future varies along philosophical, cultural, institutional, societal, and governmental divisions. Contrasting biophysical constraints and perspectives on human well-being arise both within and across countries that span the tropics and temperate zone. Direct sustenance of livelihoods from ecosystem services in East Africa contrasts with the complex and diverse relationships with the land in Mexico and the highly monetary-based economy of the United States. Lack of understanding of the contrasting contexts in which decision-making about trade-offs occurs creates impediments to collective global efforts to sustain the Earth's life support systems. While theoretical notions of the goals of sustainability science seek a unified path forward, realities on the ground present challenges. This Special Feature seeks to provide both an analytical framework and a series of case studies to illuminate impediments posed to sustainability by contrasting biophysical constraints and human perspectives on what should be sustained. The contributors aim to clarify the trade-offs posed to human welfare in sustaining biodiversity and ecosystem services and the challenges in managing for a sustainable future in which human well-being is not compromised as compared to today. Our goal is to provide novel insights on how sustainability can be achieved internationally through exploration of constraints, trade-offs, and human values examined at multiple scales, and across geographic regions from a range of cultural perspectives.

  8. The ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM): using scaling to forecast global-scale macroweather from months to decades

    Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.; Hébert, R.

    2015-09-01

    On scales of ≈ 10 days (the lifetime of planetary-scale structures), there is a drastic transition from high-frequency weather to low-frequency macroweather. This scale is close to the predictability limits of deterministic atmospheric models; thus, in GCM (general circulation model) macroweather forecasts, the weather is a high-frequency noise. However, neither the GCM noise nor the GCM climate is fully realistic. In this paper we show how simple stochastic models can be developed that use empirical data to force the statistics and climate to be realistic so that even a two-parameter model can perform as well as GCMs for annual global temperature forecasts. The key is to exploit the scaling of the dynamics and the large stochastic memories that we quantify. Since macroweather temporal (but not spatial) intermittency is low, we propose using the simplest model based on fractional Gaussian noise (fGn): the ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM). SLIMM is based on a stochastic ordinary differential equation, differing from usual linear stochastic models (such as the linear inverse modelling - LIM) in that it is of fractional rather than integer order. Whereas LIM implicitly assumes that there is no low-frequency memory, SLIMM has a huge memory that can be exploited. Although the basic mathematical forecast problem for fGn has been solved, we approach the problem in an original manner, notably using the method of innovations to obtain simpler results on forecast skill and on the size of the effective system memory. A key to successful stochastic forecasts of natural macroweather variability is to first remove the low-frequency anthropogenic component. A previous attempt to use fGn for forecasts had disappointing results because this was not done. We validate our theory using hindcasts of global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures at monthly and annual resolutions. Several nondimensional measures of forecast skill - with no adjustable parameters - show excellent

  9. The Scaling LInear Macroweather model (SLIM): using scaling to forecast global scale macroweather from months to decades

    Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.; Hébert, R.

    2015-03-01

    At scales of ≈ 10 days (the lifetime of planetary scale structures), there is a drastic transition from high frequency weather to low frequency macroweather. This scale is close to the predictability limits of deterministic atmospheric models; so that in GCM macroweather forecasts, the weather is a high frequency noise. But neither the GCM noise nor the GCM climate is fully realistic. In this paper we show how simple stochastic models can be developped that use empirical data to force the statistics and climate to be realistic so that even a two parameter model can outperform GCM's for annual global temperature forecasts. The key is to exploit the scaling of the dynamics and the enormous stochastic memories that it implies. Since macroweather intermittency is low, we propose using the simplest model based on fractional Gaussian noise (fGn): the Scaling LInear Macroweather model (SLIM). SLIM is based on a stochastic ordinary differential equations, differing from usual linear stochastic models (such as the Linear Inverse Modelling, LIM) in that it is of fractional rather than integer order. Whereas LIM implicitly assumes there is no low frequency memory, SLIM has a huge memory that can be exploited. Although the basic mathematical forecast problem for fGn has been solved, we approach the problem in an original manner notably using the method of innovations to obtain simpler results on forecast skill and on the size of the effective system memory. A key to successful forecasts of natural macroweather variability is to first remove the low frequency anthropogenic component. A previous attempt to use fGn for forecasts had poor results because this was not done. We validate our theory using hindcasts of global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures at monthly and annual resolutions. Several nondimensional measures of forecast skill - with no adjustable parameters - show excellent agreement with hindcasts and these show some skill even at decadal scales. We also compare

  10. NEWS Climatology Project: The State of the Water Cycle at Continental to Global Scales

    Rodell, Matthew; LEcuyer, Tristan; Beaudoing, Hiroko Kato; Olson, Bill

    2011-01-01

    NASA's Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) program fosters collaborative research towards improved quantification and prediction of water and energy cycle consequences of climate change. In order to measure change, it is first necessary to describe current conditions. The goal of the NEWS Water and Energy Cycle Climatology project is to develop "state of the global water cycle" and "state of the global energy cycle" assessments based on data from modern ground and space based observing systems and data integrating models. The project is a multiinstitutional collaboration with more than 20 active contributors. This presentation will describe results of the first stage of the water budget analysis, whose goal was to characterize the current state of the water cycle on mean monthly, continental scales. We examine our success in closing the water budget within the expected uncertainty range and the effects of forcing budget closure as a method for refining individual flux estimates.

  11. A dynamic global-coefficient mixed subgrid-scale model for large-eddy simulation of turbulent flows

    Singh, Satbir; You, Donghyun

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► A new SGS model is developed for LES of turbulent flows in complex geometries. ► A dynamic global-coefficient SGS model is coupled with a scale-similarity model. ► Overcome some of difficulties associated with eddy-viscosity closures. ► Does not require averaging or clipping of the model coefficient for stabilization. ► The predictive capability is demonstrated in a number of turbulent flow simulations. -- Abstract: A dynamic global-coefficient mixed subgrid-scale eddy-viscosity model for large-eddy simulation of turbulent flows in complex geometries is developed. In the present model, the subgrid-scale stress is decomposed into the modified Leonard stress, cross stress, and subgrid-scale Reynolds stress. The modified Leonard stress is explicitly computed assuming a scale similarity, while the cross stress and the subgrid-scale Reynolds stress are modeled using the global-coefficient eddy-viscosity model. The model coefficient is determined by a dynamic procedure based on the global-equilibrium between the subgrid-scale dissipation and the viscous dissipation. The new model relieves some of the difficulties associated with an eddy-viscosity closure, such as the nonalignment of the principal axes of the subgrid-scale stress tensor and the strain rate tensor and the anisotropy of turbulent flow fields, while, like other dynamic global-coefficient models, it does not require averaging or clipping of the model coefficient for numerical stabilization. The combination of the global-coefficient eddy-viscosity model and a scale-similarity model is demonstrated to produce improved predictions in a number of turbulent flow simulations

  12. An Effective Model for Improving Global Health Nursing Competence

    Sunjoo Kang

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposed an effective model for improving global health nursing competence among undergraduate students. A descriptive case study was conducted by evaluation of four implemented programs by the author. All programs were conducted with students majoring in nursing and healthcare, where the researcher was a program director, professor, or facilitator. These programs were analyzed in terms of students’ needs assessment, program design, and implementation and evaluation factors. The co...

  13. Improving Global Precipitation Product Access at the GES DISC

    Liu, Z.; Vollmer, B.; Savtchenko, A.; Ostrenga, D.; DeShong, B.; Fang, F.; Albayrak, R,; Sherman, E.; Greene, M.; Li, A.; hide

    2018-01-01

    The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) has been actively and continually engaged in improving the access to and use of Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), Tropical Precipitation Measuring Mission (TRMM), and other precipitation data, including the following new services and Ongoing development activities: Updates on GPM products and data services, New features in Giovanni, Ongoing development activities; and Precipitation product and service outreach activities.

  14. Can We Use Regression Modeling to Quantify Mean Annual Streamflow at a Global-Scale?

    Barbarossa, V.; Huijbregts, M. A. J.; Hendriks, J. A.; Beusen, A.; Clavreul, J.; King, H.; Schipper, A.

    2016-12-01

    Quantifying mean annual flow of rivers (MAF) at ungauged sites is essential for a number of applications, including assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. MAF can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict MAF based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. In this study, we developed a global-scale regression model for MAF using observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from 1,885 catchments worldwide, ranging from 2 to 106 km2 in size. In addition, we compared the performance of the regression model with the predictive ability of the spatially explicit global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB [van Beek et al., 2011] by comparing results from both models to independent measurements. We obtained a regression model explaining 89% of the variance in MAF based on catchment area, mean annual precipitation and air temperature, average slope and elevation. The regression model performed better than PCR-GLOBWB for the prediction of MAF, as root-mean-square error values were lower (0.29 - 0.38 compared to 0.49 - 0.57) and the modified index of agreement was higher (0.80 - 0.83 compared to 0.72 - 0.75). Our regression model can be applied globally at any point of the river network, provided that the input parameters are within the range of values employed in the calibration of the model. The performance is reduced for water scarce regions and further research should focus on improving such an aspect for regression-based global hydrological models.

  15. Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data errors

    Sperna Weiland, Frederiek C.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; van Beek, Rens (L.) P. H.; Weerts, Albrecht H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2015-10-01

    In the past decades significant progress has been made in the fitting of hydrologic models to data. Most of this work has focused on simple, CPU-efficient, lumped hydrologic models using discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, or tracer data from relatively small river basins. In this paper, we focus on large-scale hydrologic modeling and analyze the effect of parameter and rainfall data uncertainty on simulated discharge dynamics with the global hydrologic model PCR-GLOBWB. We use three rainfall data products; the CFSR reanalysis, the ERA-Interim reanalysis, and a combined ERA-40 reanalysis and CRU dataset. Parameter uncertainty is derived from Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) using monthly discharge data from five of the largest river systems in the world. Our results demonstrate that the default parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB, derived from global datasets, can be improved by calibrating the model against monthly discharge observations. Yet, it is difficult to find a single parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB that works well for all of the five river basins considered herein and shows consistent performance during both the calibration and evaluation period. Still there may be possibilities for regionalization based on catchment similarities. Our simulations illustrate that parameter uncertainty constitutes only a minor part of predictive uncertainty. Thus, the apparent dichotomy between simulations of global-scale hydrologic behavior and actual data cannot be resolved by simply increasing the model complexity of PCR-GLOBWB and resolving sub-grid processes. Instead, it would be more productive to improve the characterization of global rainfall amounts at spatial resolutions of 0.5° and smaller.

  16. Improvement of Global and Regional Mean Sea Level Trends Derived from all Altimetry Missions.

    Ablain, Michael; Benveniste, Jérôme; Faugere, Yannice; Larnicol, Gilles; Cazenave, Anny; Johannessen, Johnny A.; Stammer, Detlef; Timms, Gary

    2012-07-01

    The global mean sea level (GMSL) has been calculated on a continual basis since January 1993 using data from satellite altimetry missions. The global mean sea level (MSL) deduced from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2 is increasing with a global trend of 3.2 mm from 1993 to 2010 applying the post glacial rebound (MSL Aviso website http://www.jason.oceanobs.com/msl). Besides, the regional sea level trends bring out an inhomogeneous repartition of the ocean elevation with local MSL slopes ranging from +/- 8 mm/year. A study published in 2009 [Ablain et al., 2009] has shown that the global MSL trend uncertainty was estimated at +/-0.6 mm/year with a confidence interval of 90%. The main sources of errors at global and regional scales are due to the orbit calculation and the wet troposphere correction. But others sea-level components have also a significant impact on the long-term stability of MSL as for instance the stability of instrumental parameters and the atmospheric corrections. Thanks to recent studies performed in Sea Level Essential Climate Variable Project in the frame of the Climate Change Initiative, an ESA Programme, in addition to activities performed within the SALP/CNES, strong improvements have been provided for the estimation of the global and regional MSL trends. In this paper, we propose to describe them; they concern the orbit calculation thanks to new gravity fields, the atmospheric corrections thanks to ERA-interim reanalyses, the wet troposphere corrections thanks to the stability improvement, and also empirical corrections allowing us to link regional time series together better. These improvements are described at global and regional scale for all the altimetry missions.

  17. From Global to Cloud Resolving Scale: Experiments with a Scale- and Aerosol-Aware Physics Package and Impact on Tracer Transport

    Grell, G. A.; Freitas, S. R.; Olson, J.; Bela, M.

    2017-12-01

    We will start by providing a summary of the latest cumulus parameterization modeling efforts at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) will be presented on both regional and global scales. The physics package includes a scale-aware parameterization of subgrid cloudiness feedback to radiation (coupled PBL, microphysics, radiation, shallow and congestus type convection), the stochastic Grell-Freitas (GF) scale- and aerosol-aware convective parameterization, and an aerosol aware microphysics package. GF is based on a stochastic approach originally implemented by Grell and Devenyi (2002) and described in more detail in Grell and Freitas (2014, ACP). It was expanded to include PDF's for vertical mass flux, as well as modifications to improve the diurnal cycle. This physics package will be used on different scales, spanning global to cloud resolving, to look at the impact on scalar transport and numerical weather prediction.

  18. Global Ocean Circulation in Thermohaline Coordinates and Small-scale and Mesoscale mixing: An Inverse Estimate.

    Groeskamp, S.; Zika, J. D.; McDougall, T. J.; Sloyan, B.

    2016-02-01

    I will present results of a new inverse technique that infers small-scale turbulent diffusivities and mesoscale eddy diffusivities from an ocean climatology of Salinity (S) and Temperature (T) in combination with surface freshwater and heat fluxes.First, the ocean circulation is represented in (S,T) coordinates, by the diathermohaline streamfunction. Framing the ocean circulation in (S,T) coordinates, isolates the component of the circulation that is directly related to water-mass transformation.Because water-mass transformation is directly related to fluxes of salt and heat, this framework allows for the formulation of an inverse method in which the diathermohaline streamfunction is balanced with known air-sea forcing and unknown mixing. When applying this inverse method to observations, we obtain observationally based estimates for both the streamfunction and the mixing. The results reveal new information about the component of the global ocean circulation due to water-mass transformation and its relation to surface freshwater and heat fluxes and small-scale and mesoscale mixing. The results provide global constraints on spatially varying patterns of diffusivities, in order to obtain a realistic overturning circulation. We find that mesoscale isopycnal mixing is much smaller than expected. These results are important for our understanding of the relation between global ocean circulation and mixing and may lead to improved parameterisations in numerical ocean models.

  19. Leaf optical properties shed light on foliar trait variability at individual to global scales

    Shiklomanov, A. N.; Serbin, S.; Dietze, M.

    2017-12-01

    Recent syntheses of large trait databases have contributed immensely to our understanding of drivers of plant function at the global scale. However, the global trade-offs revealed by such syntheses, such as the trade-off between leaf productivity and resilience (i.e. "leaf economics spectrum"), are often absent at smaller scales and fail to correlate with actual functional limitations. An improved understanding of how traits vary among communities, species, and individuals is critical to accurate representations of vegetation ecophysiology and ecological dynamics in ecosystem models. Spectral data from both field observations and remote sensing platforms present a rich and widely available source of information on plant traits. Here, we apply Bayesian inversion of the PROSPECT leaf radiative transfer model to a large global database of over 60,000 field spectra and plant traits to (1) comprehensively assess the accuracy of leaf trait estimation using PROSPECT spectral inversion; (2) investigate the correlations between optical traits estimable from PROSPECT and other important foliar traits such as nitrogen and lignin concentrations; and (3) identify dominant sources of variability and characterize trade-offs in optical and non-optical foliar traits. Our work provides a key methodological contribution by validating physically-based retrieval of plant traits from remote sensing observations, and provides insights about trait trade-offs related to plant acclimation, adaptation, and community assembly.

  20. Dust: Small-scale processes with global consequences

    Okin, G.S.; Bullard, J.E.; Reynolds, R.L.; Ballantine, J.-A.C.; Schepanski, K.; Todd, M.C.; Belnap, J.; Baddock, M.C.; Gill, T.E.; Miller, M.E.

    2011-01-01

    Desert dust, both modern and ancient, is a critical component of the Earth system. Atmospheric dust has important effects on climate by changing the atmospheric radiation budget, while deposited dust influences biogeochemical cycles in the oceans and on land. Dust deposited on snow and ice decreases its albedo, allowing more light to be trapped at the surface, thus increasing the rate of melt and influencing energy budgets and river discharge. In the human realm, dust contributes to the transport of allergens and pathogens and when inhaled can cause or aggravate respiratory diseases. Dust storms also represent a significant hazard to road and air travel. Because it affects so many Earth processes, dust is studied from a variety of perspectives and at multiple scales, with various disciplines examining emissions for different purposes using disparate strategies. Thus, the range of objectives in studying dust, as well as experimental approaches and results, has not yet been systematically integrated. Key research questions surrounding the production and sources of dust could benefit from improved collaboration among different research communities. These questions involve the origins of dust, factors that influence dust production and emission, and methods through which dust can be monitored. ?? Author(s) 2011.

  1. Dust emission: small-scale processes with global consequences

    Okin, Gregory S.; Bullard, Joanna E.; Reynolds, Richard L.; Ballantine, John-Andrew C.; Schepanski, Kerstin; Todd, Martin C.; Belnap, Jayne; Baddock, Matthew C.; Gill, Thomas E.; Miller, Mark E.

    2011-01-01

    Desert dust, both modern and ancient, is a critical component of the Earth system. Atmospheric dust has important effects on climate by changing the atmospheric radiation budget, while deposited dust influences biogeochemical cycles in the oceans and on land. Dust deposited on snow and ice decreases its albedo, allowing more light to be trapped at the surface, thus increasing the rate of melt and influencing energy budgets and river discharge. In the human realm, dust contributes to the transport of allergens and pathogens and when inhaled can cause or aggravate respiratory diseases. Dust storms also represent a significant hazard to road and air travel. Because it affects so many Earth processes, dust is studied from a variety of perspectives and at multiple scales, with various disciplines examining emissions for different purposes using disparate strategies. Thus, the range of objectives in studying dust, as well as experimental approaches and results, has not yet been systematically integrated. Key research questions surrounding the production and sources of dust could benefit from improved collaboration among different research communities. These questions involve the origins of dust, factors that influence dust production and emission, and methods through which dust can be monitored.

  2. Black Carbon Absorption at the Global Scale Is Affected by Particle-Scale Diversity in Composition

    Fierce, Laura; Bond, Tami C.; Bauer, Susanne E.; Mena, Francisco; Riemer, Nicole

    2016-01-01

    Atmospheric black carbon (BC) exerts a strong, but uncertain, warming effect on the climate. BC that is coated with non-absorbing material absorbs more strongly than the same amount of BC in an uncoated particle, but the magnitude of this absorption enhancement (E(sub abs)) is not well constrained. Modelling studies and laboratory measurements have found stronger absorption enhancement than has been observed in the atmosphere. Here, using a particle-resolved aerosol model to simulate diverse BC populations, we show that absorption is overestimated by as much as a factor of two if diversity is neglected and population-averaged composition is assumed across all BC-containing particles. If, instead, composition diversity is resolved, we find E(sub abs) = 1 - 1.5 at low relative humidity, consistent with ambient observations. This study offers not only an explanation for the discrepancy between modelled and observed absorption enhancement, but also demonstrates how particle-scale simulations can be used to develop relationships for global-scale models.

  3. Bioremediation at a global scale: from the test tube to planet Earth.

    de Lorenzo, Víctor; Marlière, Philippe; Solé, Ricard

    2016-09-01

    Planet Earth's biosphere has evolved over billions of years as a balanced bio-geological system ultimately sustained by sunpower and the large-scale cycling of elements largely run by the global environmental microbiome. Humans have been part of this picture for much of their existence. But the industrial revolution started in the XIX century and the subsequent advances in medicine, chemistry, agriculture and communications have impacted such balances to an unprecedented degree - and the problem has nothing but exacerbated in the last 20 years. Human overpopulation, industrial growth along with unsustainable use of natural resources have driven many sites and perhaps the planetary ecosystem as a whole, beyond recovery by spontaneous natural means, even if the immediate causes could be stopped. The most conspicuous indications of such a state of affairs include the massive change in land use, the accelerated increase in the levels of greenhouse gases, the frequent natural disasters associated to climate change and the growing non-recyclable waste (e.g. plastics and recalcitrant chemicals) that we release to the Environment. While the whole planet is afflicted at a global scale by chemical pollution and anthropogenic emissions, the ongoing development of systems and synthetic biology, metagenomics, modern chemistry and some key concepts from ecological theory allow us to tackle this phenomenal challenge and propose large-scale interventions aimed at reversing and even improving the situation. This involves (i) identification of key reactions or processes that need to be re-established (or altogether created) for ecosystem reinstallation, (ii) implementation of such reactions in natural or designer hosts able to self-replicate and deliver the corresponding activities when/where needed in a fashion guided by sound ecological modelling, (iii) dispersal of niche-creating agents at a global scale and (iv) containment, monitoring and risk assessment of the whole process

  4. IMPROVING SEMI-GLOBAL MATCHING: COST AGGREGATION AND CONFIDENCE MEASURE

    P. d’Angelo

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Digital elevation models are one of the basic products that can be generated from remotely sensed imagery. The Semi Global Matching (SGM algorithm is a robust and practical algorithm for dense image matching. The connection between SGM and Belief Propagation was recently developed, and based on that improvements such as correction of over-counting the data term, and a new confidence measure have been proposed. Later the MGM algorithm has been proposed, it aims at improving the regularization step of SGM, but has only been evaluated on the Middlebury stereo benchmark so far. This paper evaluates these proposed improvements on the ISPRS satellite stereo benchmark, using a Pleiades Triplet and a Cartosat-1 Stereo pair. The over-counting correction slightly improves matching density, at the expense of adding a few outliers. The MGM cost aggregation shows leads to a slight increase of accuracy.

  5. Development and psychometric evaluation of a clinical global impression for schizoaffective disorder scale.

    Allen, Michael H; Daniel, David G; Revicki, Dennis A; Canuso, Carla M; Turkoz, Ibrahim; Fu, Dong-Jing; Alphs, Larry; Ishak, K Jack; Bartko, John J; Lindenmayer, Jean-Pierre

    2012-01-01

    The Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder scale is a new rating scale adapted from the Clinical Global Impression scale for use in patients with schizoaffective disorder. The psychometric characteristics of the Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder are described. Content validity was assessed using an investigator questionnaire. Inter-rater reliability was determined with 12 sets of videotaped interviews rated independently by two trained individuals. Test-retest reliability was assessed using 30 randomly selected raters from clinical trials who evaluated the same videos on separate occasions two weeks apart. Convergent and divergent validity and effect size were evaluated by comparing scores between the Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder and the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, 21-item Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression, and Young Mania Rating Scale scales using pooled patient data from two clinical trials. Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder scores were then linked to corresponding Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale scores. Content validity was strong. Inter-rater agreement was good to excellent for most scales and subscales (intra-class correlation coefficient ≥ 0.50). Test-retest showed good reproducibility, with intraclass correlation coefficients ranging from 0.444 to 0.898. Spearman correlations between Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder domains and corresponding symptom scales were 0.60 or greater, and effect sizes for Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder overall and domain scores were similar to Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale Young Mania Rating Scale, and 21-item Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression scores. Raters anticipated that the scale might be less effective in distinguishing negative from depressive symptoms, and, in fact, the results here may reflect that clinical reality. Multiple lines of evidence support the

  6. The global land rush: what the evidence reveals about scale and geography

    Cotula, Lorenzo; Polack, Emily

    2012-04-15

    In developing countries, millions of people depend on land for their food and livelihoods. But a global 'land rush' — moves to acquire large tracts of land across the world — is increasing competition for this vital resource. A growing body of evidence points to the scale, geography, players and key characteristics of the phenomenon. Some of this is based on media reports and some on country level inventories. Much of the data cannot be compared due to variations in methodology, timescale and the differing criteria for what makes a land deal. Further improving data and analysis is critical. But while exact numbers will keep changing, all evidence indicates that land acquisitions are happening quickly and on a large scale. So we urgently need to get on with developing appropriate responses.

  7. Developing and Deploying Knowledge on a Global Scale

    Borron, James; Morales, David; Klahr, Philip

    1996-01-01

    Reuters is a worldwide company focused on supplying financial and news information to its more than 40,000 subscribers around the world. To enhance the quality and consistency of its customer- support organization, Reuters embarked on a global knowledge development and reuse project. The resulting system is in operational use in North America, Europe, and Asia. The system supports 38 Reuter products worldwide. This article presents a case study of Reuter experience in putting a global knowled...

  8. Emergence of global scaling behaviour in the coupled Earth-atmosphere interaction

    Fallah, Bijan; Saberi, Abbas Ali; Sodoudi, Sahar

    2016-01-01

    Scale invariance property in the global geometry of Earth may lead to a coupled interactive behaviour between various components of the climate system. One of the most interesting correlations exists between spatial statistics of the global topography and the temperature on Earth. Here we show that the power-law behaviour observed in the Earth topography via different approaches, resembles a scaling law in the global spatial distribution of independent atmospheric parameters. We report on obs...

  9. Optimization Model for Mitigating Global Warming at the Farm Scale: An Application to Japanese Rice Farms

    Kiyotaka Masuda

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In Japan, greenhouse gas emissions from rice production, especially CH4 emissions in rice paddy fields, are the primary contributors to global warming from agriculture. When prolonged midseason drainage for mitigating CH4 emissions from rice paddy fields is practiced with environmentally friendly rice production based on reduced use of synthetic pesticides and chemical fertilizers, Japanese rice farmers can receive an agri-environmental direct payment. This paper examines the economic and environmental effects of the agri-environmental direct payment on the adoption of a measure to mitigate global warming in Japanese rice farms using a combined application of linear programming and life cycle assessment at the farm scale. Eco-efficiency, which is defined as net farm income divided by global warming potential, is used as an integrated indicator for assessing the economic and environmental feasibilities. The results show that under the current direct payment level, the prolonged midseason drainage technique does not improve the eco-efficiency of Japanese rice farms because the practice of this technique in environmentally friendly rice production causes large economic disadvantages in exchange for small environmental advantages. The direct payment rates for agri-environmental measures should be determined based on the condition that environmentally friendly agricultural practices improve eco-efficiency compared with conventional agriculture.

  10. Potential Global Benefits of Improved Ceiling Fan Energy Efficiency

    Sathaye, Nakul [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Phadke, Amol [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Shah, Nihar [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Letschert, Virginie [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-10-31

    Ceiling fans contribute significantly to residential electricity consumption, both in an absolute sense and as a proportion of household consumption in many locations, especially in developing countries in warm climates. However, there has been little detailed assessment of the costs and benefits of efficiency improvement options for ceiling fans and the potential resulting electricity consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. We analyze the costs and benefits of several options to improve the efficiency of ceiling fans and assess the global potential for electricity savings and GHG emission reductions with more detailed assessments for India, China, and the U.S. We find that ceiling fan efficiency can be cost-effectively improved by at least 50% using commercially available technology. If these efficiency improvements are implemented in all ceiling fans sold by 2020, 70 terrawatt hours per year (TWh/year) could be saved and 25 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per year could be avoided, globally. We assess how policies and programs such as standards, labels, and financial incentives can be used to accelerate the adoption of efficient ceiling fans in order to realize this savings potential.

  11. Improvements on mapping soil liquefaction at a regional scale

    Zhu, Jing

    Earthquake induced soil liquefaction is an important secondary hazard during earthquakes and can lead to significant damage to infrastructure. Mapping liquefaction hazard is important in both planning for earthquake events and guiding relief efforts by positioning resources once the events have occurred. This dissertation addresses two aspects of liquefaction hazard mapping at a regional scale including 1) predictive liquefaction hazard mapping and 2) post-liquefaction cataloging. First, current predictive hazard liquefaction mapping relies on detailed geologic maps and geotechnical data, which are not always available in at-risk regions. This dissertation improves the predictive liquefaction hazard mapping by the development and validation of geospatial liquefaction models (Chapter 2 and 3) that predict liquefaction extent and are appropriate for global application. The geospatial liquefaction models are developed using logistic regression from a liquefaction database consisting of the data from 27 earthquake events from six countries. The model that performs best over the entire dataset includes peak ground velocity (PGV), VS30, distance to river, distance to coast, and precipitation. The model that performs best over the noncoastal dataset includes PGV, VS30, water table depth, distance to water body, and precipitation. Second, post-earthquake liquefaction cataloging historically relies on field investigation that is often limited by time and expense, and therefore results in limited and incomplete liquefaction inventories. This dissertation improves the post-earthquake cataloging by the development and validation of a remote sensing-based method that can be quickly applied over a broad region after an earthquake and provide a detailed map of liquefaction surface effects (Chapter 4). Our method uses the optical satellite images before and after an earthquake event from the WorldView-2 satellite with 2 m spatial resolution and eight spectral bands. Our method

  12. Calibrating EASY-Care independence scale to improve accuracy

    Jotheeswaran, A. T.; Dias, Amit; Philp, Ian; Patel, Vikram; Prince, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Background there is currently limited support for the reliability and validity of the EASY-Care independence scale, with little work carried out in low- or middle-income countries. Therefore, we assessed the internal construct validity and hierarchical and classical scaling properties among frail dependent older people in the community. Objective we assessed the internal construct validity and hierarchical and classical scaling properties among frail dependent older people in the community. Methods three primary care physicians administered EASY-Care comprehensive geriatric assessment for 150 frail and/or dependent older people in the primary care setting. A Mokken model was applied to investigate hierarchical scaling properties of EASY-Care independence scale, and internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha) of the scale was also examined. Results we found that EASY-Care independence scale is highly internally consistent and is a strong hierarchical scale, hence providing strong evidence for unidimensionality. However, two items in the scale (unable to use telephone and manage finances) had much lower item Loevinger H coefficients than others. Exclusion of these two items improved the overall internal consistency of the scale. Conclusions the strong performance of the EASY-Care independence scale among community-dwelling frail older people is encouraging. This study confirms that EASY-Care independence scale is highly internally consistent and a strong hierarchical scale. PMID:27496925

  13. Improving global laboratory capabilities for emergency radionuclide bioassay

    Li, C.; Jourdain, J.; Kramer, G. H.

    2012-01-01

    During a radiological or nuclear emergency, first-responders and the general public may be internally contaminated with the radionuclide(s) involved. A timely radionuclide bioassay provides important information about contamination, for subsequent dose assessment and medical management. Both technical and operational gaps are discussed in this paper. As many people may need to be assessed in a short period of time, any single laboratory may find its capabilities insufficient. Laboratories from other regions or other countries may be called upon for assistance. This paper proposes a road-map to improve global capabilities in emergency radionuclide bioassay, suggesting a phased approach for establishing a global laboratory network. Existing international collaboration platforms could provide the base on which to build such a network. (authors)

  14. Global gravity field from recent satellites (DTU15) - Arctic improvements

    Andersen, O. B.; Knudsen, P.; Kenyon, S.

    2017-01-01

    Global marine gravity field modelling using satellite altimetry is currently undergoing huge improvement with the completion of the Jason-1 end-of-life geodetic mission, but particularly with the continuing Cryosat-2 mission. These new satellites provide three times as many geodetic mission...... altimetric sea surface height observations as ever before. The impact of these new geodetic mission data is a dramatic improvement of particularly the shorter wavelength of the gravity field (10-20 km) which is now being mapped at significantly higher accuracy. The quality of the altimetric gravity field...... is in many places surpassing the quality of gravity fields derived using non-commercial marine gravity observations. Cryosat-2 provides for the first time altimetry throughout the Arctic Ocean up to 88°N. Here, the huge improvement in marine gravity mapping is shown through comparison with high quality...

  15. Improved scaling of temperature-accelerated dynamics using localization

    Shim, Yunsic; Amar, Jacques G. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Toledo, Toledo, Ohio 43606 (United States)

    2016-07-07

    While temperature-accelerated dynamics (TAD) is a powerful method for carrying out non-equilibrium simulations of systems over extended time scales, the computational cost of serial TAD increases approximately as N{sup 3} where N is the number of atoms. In addition, although a parallel TAD method based on domain decomposition [Y. Shim et al., Phys. Rev. B 76, 205439 (2007)] has been shown to provide significantly improved scaling, the dynamics in such an approach is only approximate while the size of activated events is limited by the spatial decomposition size. Accordingly, it is of interest to develop methods to improve the scaling of serial TAD. As a first step in understanding the factors which determine the scaling behavior, we first present results for the overall scaling of serial TAD and its components, which were obtained from simulations of Ag/Ag(100) growth and Ag/Ag(100) annealing, and compare with theoretical predictions. We then discuss two methods based on localization which may be used to address two of the primary “bottlenecks” to the scaling of serial TAD with system size. By implementing both of these methods, we find that for intermediate system-sizes, the scaling is improved by almost a factor of N{sup 1/2}. Some additional possible methods to improve the scaling of TAD are also discussed.

  16. Improved scaling of temperature-accelerated dynamics using localization

    Shim, Yunsic; Amar, Jacques G.

    2016-01-01

    While temperature-accelerated dynamics (TAD) is a powerful method for carrying out non-equilibrium simulations of systems over extended time scales, the computational cost of serial TAD increases approximately as N 3 where N is the number of atoms. In addition, although a parallel TAD method based on domain decomposition [Y. Shim et al., Phys. Rev. B 76, 205439 (2007)] has been shown to provide significantly improved scaling, the dynamics in such an approach is only approximate while the size of activated events is limited by the spatial decomposition size. Accordingly, it is of interest to develop methods to improve the scaling of serial TAD. As a first step in understanding the factors which determine the scaling behavior, we first present results for the overall scaling of serial TAD and its components, which were obtained from simulations of Ag/Ag(100) growth and Ag/Ag(100) annealing, and compare with theoretical predictions. We then discuss two methods based on localization which may be used to address two of the primary “bottlenecks” to the scaling of serial TAD with system size. By implementing both of these methods, we find that for intermediate system-sizes, the scaling is improved by almost a factor of N 1/2 . Some additional possible methods to improve the scaling of TAD are also discussed.

  17. Environmental degradation, global food production, and risk for large-scale migrations

    Doeoes, B.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to estimate to what extent global food production is affected by the ongoing environmental degradation through processes, such as soil erosion, salinization, chemical contamination, ultraviolet radiation, and biotic stress. Estimates have also been made of available opportunities to improve food production efficiency by, e.g., increased use of fertilizers, irrigation, and biotechnology, as well as improved management. Expected losses and gains of agricultural land in competition with urbanization, industrial development, and forests have been taken into account. Although estimated gains in food production deliberately have been overestimated and losses underestimated, calculations indicate that during the next 30-35 years the annual net gain in food production will be significantly lower than the rate of world population growth. An attempt has also been made to identify possible scenarios for large-scale migrations, caused mainly by rapid population growth in combination with insufficient local food production and poverty. 18 refs, 7 figs, 6 tabs

  18. Irrational Delay Revisited: Examining Five Procrastination Scales in a Global Sample

    Frode Svartdal; Piers Steel

    2017-01-01

    Source at http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01927 Scales attempting to measure procrastination focus on different facets of the phenomenon, yet they share a common understanding of procrastination as an unnecessary, unwanted, and disadvantageous delay. The present paper examines in a global sample (N = 4,169) five different procrastination scales – Decisional Procrastination Scale (DPS), Irrational Procrastination Scale (IPS), Pure Procrastination Scale (PPS), Adult Inventory of Procr...

  19. BETR global - A geographically-explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

    MacLeod, Matthew; Waldow, Harald von; Tay, Pascal; Armitage, James M.; Woehrnschimmel, Henry; Riley, William J.; McKone, Thomas E.; Hungerbuhler, Konrad

    2011-01-01

    We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15 o x 15 o grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5). - Two new software implementations of the Berkeley-Trent Global Contaminant Fate Model are available. The new model software is illustrated using a case study of the global fate of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

  20. BETR Global - A geographically explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

    Macleod, M.; Waldow, H. von; Tay, P.; Armitage, J. M.; Wohrnschimmel, H.; Riley, W.; McKone, T. E.; Hungerbuhler, K.

    2011-04-01

    We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15{sup o} x 15{sup o} grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

  1. Globalization Then and Now: Increasing Scale Reduces Local Sustainability

    Joseph A. Tainter

    2006-01-01

    One consequence of globalization is that parts of the world that were once remote and minimally influenced by broader political and economic developments now find themselves profoundly affected by forces beyond their comprehension. Communities that were once self-sufficient and resilient come to depend on larger systems, no longer control their own destinies, and...

  2. Scaled biotic disruption during early Eocene global warming events

    Gibbs, S.J.; Bown, P.R.; Murphy, B.H.; Sluijs, A.; Edgar, K.M.; Pälike, H.; Bolton, C.T.; Zachos, J.C.

    2012-01-01

    Late Paleocene and early Eocene hyperthermals are transient warming events associated with massive perturbations of the global carbon cycle, and are considered partial analogues for current anthropogenic climate change. Because the magnitude of carbon release varied between the events, they are

  3. Comparison and Evaluation of Global Scale Studies of Vulnerability and Risks to Climate Change

    Muccione, Veruska; Allen, Simon K.; Huggel, Christian; Birkmann, Joern

    2015-04-01

    Understanding the present and future distribution of different climate change impacts and vulnerability to climate change is a central subject in the context of climate justice and international climate policy. Commonly, it is claimed that poor countries that contributed little to anthropogenic climate change are those most affected and most vulnerable to climate change. Such statements are backed by a number of global-scale vulnerability studies, which identified poor countries as most vulnerable. However, some studies have challenged this view, likewise highlighting the high vulnerability of richer countries. Overall, no consensus has been reached so far about which concept of vulnerability should be applied and what type of indicators should be considered. Furthermore, there is little agreement which specific countries are most vulnerable. This is a major concern in view of the need to inform international climate policy, all the more if such assessments should contribute to allocate climate adaptation funds as was invoked at some instances. We argue that next to the analysis of who is most vulnerable, it is also important to better understand and compare different vulnerability profiles assessed in present global studies. We perform a systematic literature review of global vulnerability assessments with the scope to highlight vulnerability distribution patterns. We then compare these distributions with global risk distributions in line with revised and adopted concepts by most recent IPCC reports. It emerges that improved differentiation of key drivers of risk and the understanding of different vulnerability profiles are important contributions, which can inform future adaptation policies at the regional and national level. This can change the perspective on, and basis for distributional issues in view of climate burden share, and therefore can have implications for UNFCCC financing instruments (e.g. Green Climate Fund). However, in order to better compare

  4. Reconsidering Replication: New Perspectives on Large-Scale School Improvement

    Peurach, Donald J.; Glazer, Joshua L.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to reconsider organizational replication as a strategy for large-scale school improvement: a strategy that features a "hub" organization collaborating with "outlet" schools to enact school-wide designs for improvement. To do so, we synthesize a leading line of research on commercial replication to construct a…

  5. Management of African root and tuber scale using improved ...

    The fertiliser application was made as basal dressing and on one improved clone (F100) with a local variety. Results indicated that ARTS infestations were delayed on 'Kinuani', F100 and the local clone, 'Kileba', as no scales were observed on them 6 months after planting (MAP). The sweetest improved genotype, 'Papayi', ...

  6. How does Software Process Improvement Address Global Software Engineering?

    Kuhrmann, Marco; Diebold, Philipp; Münch, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    a systematic mapping study on the state-of-the-art in SPI from a general perspective, we observed Global Software Engineering (GSE) becoming a topic of interest in recent years. Therefore, in this paper, we provide a detailed investigation of those papers from the overall systematic mapping study that were......For decades, Software Process Improvement (SPI) programs have been implemented, inter alia, to improve quality and speed of software development. To set up, guide, and carry out SPI projects, and to measure SPI state, impact, and success, a multitude of different SPI approaches and considerable...... experience are available. SPI addresses many aspects ranging from individual developer skills to entire organizations. It comprises for instance the optimization of specific activities in the software lifecycle as well as the creation of organization awareness and project culture. In the course of conducting...

  7. Can Global Visual Features Improve Tag Recommendation for Image Annotation?

    Oge Marques

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent advances in the fields of digital photography, networking and computing, have made it easier than ever for users to store and share photographs. However without sufficient metadata, e.g., in the form of tags, photos are difficult to find and organize. In this paper, we describe a system that recommends tags for image annotation. We postulate that the use of low-level global visual features can improve the quality of the tag recommendation process when compared to a baseline statistical method based on tag co-occurrence. We present results from experiments conducted using photos and metadata sourced from the Flickr photo website that suggest that the use of visual features improves the mean average precision (MAP of the system and increases the system's ability to suggest different tags, therefore justifying the associated increase in complexity.

  8. Scaling-up treatment of depression and anxiety: a global return on investment analysis.

    Chisholm, Dan; Sweeny, Kim; Sheehan, Peter; Rasmussen, Bruce; Smit, Filip; Cuijpers, Pim; Saxena, Shekhar

    2016-05-01

    Depression and anxiety disorders are highly prevalent and disabling disorders, which result not only in an enormous amount of human misery and lost health, but also lost economic output. Here we propose a global investment case for a scaled-up response to the public health and economic burden of depression and anxiety disorders. In this global return on investment analysis, we used the mental health module of the OneHealth tool to calculate treatment costs and health outcomes in 36 countries between 2016 and 2030. We assumed a linear increase in treatment coverage. We factored in a modest improvement of 5% in both the ability to work and productivity at work as a result of treatment, subsequently mapped to the prevailing rates of labour participation and gross domestic product (GDP) per worker in each country. The net present value of investment needed over the period 2016-30 to substantially scale up effective treatment coverage for depression and anxiety disorders is estimated to be US$147 billion. The expected returns to this investment are also substantial. In terms of health impact, scaled-up treatment leads to 43 million extra years of healthy life over the scale-up period. Placing an economic value on these healthy life-years produces a net present value of $310 billion. As well as these intrinsic benefits associated with improved health, scaled-up treatment of common mental disorders also leads to large economic productivity gains (a net present value of $230 billion for scaled-up depression treatment and $169 billion for anxiety disorders). Across country income groups, resulting benefit to cost ratios amount to 2·3-3·0 to 1 when economic benefits only are considered, and 3·3-5·7 to 1 when the value of health returns is also included. Return on investment analysis of the kind reported here can contribute strongly to a balanced investment case for enhanced action to address the large and growing burden of common mental disorders worldwide. Grand

  9. Monitoring the Extent of Forests on National to Global Scales

    Townshend, J.; Townshend, J.; Hansen, M.; DeFries, R.; DeFries, R.; Sohlberg, R.; Desch, A.; White, B.

    2001-05-01

    Information on forest extent and change is important for many purposes, including understanding the global carbon cycle and managing natural resources. International statistics on forest extent are generated using many different sources often producing inconsistent results spatially and through time. Results will be presented comparing forest extent derived from the recent global Food and Agricultural Organization's (FAO) FRA 2000 report with products derived using wall-to-wall Landsat, AVHRR and MODIS data sets. The remotely sensed data sets provide consistent results in terms of total area despite considerable differences in spatial resolution. Although the location of change can be satisfactorily detected with all three remotely sensed data sets, reliable measurement of change can only be achieved through use of Landsat-resolution data. Contrary to the FRA 2000 results we find evidence of an increase in deforestation rates in the late 1990s in several countries. Also we have found evidence of considerable changes in some countries for which little or no change is reported by FAO. The results indicate the benefits of globally consistent analyses of forest cover based on multiscale remotely sensed data sets rather than a reliance on statistics generated by individual countries with very different definitions of forest and methods used to derive them.

  10. From global scaling to the dynamics of individual cities

    Depersin, Jules; Barthelemy, Marc

    2018-03-01

    Scaling has been proposed as a powerful tool to analyze the properties of complex systems and in particular for cities where it describes how various properties change with population. The empirical study of scaling on a wide range of urban datasets displays apparent nonlinear behaviors whose statistical validity and meaning were recently the focus of many debates. We discuss here another aspect, which is the implication of such scaling forms on individual cities and how they can be used for predicting the behavior of a city when its population changes. We illustrate this discussion in the case of delay due to traffic congestion with a dataset of 101 US cities in the years 1982–2014. We show that the scaling form obtained by agglomerating all of the available data for different cities and for different years does display a nonlinear behavior, but which appears to be unrelated to the dynamics of individual cities when their population grows. In other words, the congestion-induced delay in a given city does not depend on its population only, but also on its previous history. This strong path dependency prohibits the existence of a simple scaling form valid for all cities and shows that we cannot always agglomerate the data for many different systems. More generally, these results also challenge the use of transversal data for understanding longitudinal series for cities.

  11. Leaf optical properties shed light on foliar trait variability at individual to global scales

    Shiklomanov, A. N.; Serbin, S.; Dietze, M.

    2016-12-01

    Recent syntheses of large trait databases have contributed immensely to our understanding of drivers of plant function at the global scale. However, the global trade-offs revealed by such syntheses, such as the trade-off between leaf productivity and resilience (i.e. "leaf economics spectrum"), are often absent at smaller scales and fail to correlate with actual functional limitations. An improved understanding of how traits vary within communities, species, and individuals is critical to accurate representations of vegetation ecophysiology and ecological dynamics in ecosystem models. Spectral data from both field observations and remote sensing platforms present a potentially rich and widely available source of information on plant traits. In particular, the inversion of physically-based radiative transfer models (RTMs) is an effective and general method for estimating plant traits from spectral measurements. Here, we apply Bayesian inversion of the PROSPECT leaf RTM to a large database of field spectra and plant traits spanning tropical, temperate, and boreal forests, agricultural plots, arid shrublands, and tundra to identify dominant sources of variability and characterize trade-offs in plant functional traits. By leveraging such a large and diverse dataset, we re-calibrate the empirical absorption coefficients underlying the PROSPECT model and expand its scope to include additional leaf biochemical components, namely leaf nitrogen content. Our work provides a key methodological contribution as a physically-based retrieval of leaf nitrogen from remote sensing observations, and provides substantial insights about trait trade-offs related to plant acclimation, adaptation, and community assembly.

  12. Genome-wide evolutionary dynamics of influenza B viruses on a global scale.

    Pinky Langat

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The global-scale epidemiology and genome-wide evolutionary dynamics of influenza B remain poorly understood compared with influenza A viruses. We compiled a spatio-temporally comprehensive dataset of influenza B viruses, comprising over 2,500 genomes sampled worldwide between 1987 and 2015, including 382 newly-sequenced genomes that fill substantial gaps in previous molecular surveillance studies. Our contributed data increase the number of available influenza B virus genomes in Europe, Africa and Central Asia, improving the global context to study influenza B viruses. We reveal Yamagata-lineage diversity results from co-circulation of two antigenically-distinct groups that also segregate genetically across the entire genome, without evidence of intra-lineage reassortment. In contrast, Victoria-lineage diversity stems from geographic segregation of different genetic clades, with variability in the degree of geographic spread among clades. Differences between the lineages are reflected in their antigenic dynamics, as Yamagata-lineage viruses show alternating dominance between antigenic groups, while Victoria-lineage viruses show antigenic drift of a single lineage. Structural mapping of amino acid substitutions on trunk branches of influenza B gene phylogenies further supports these antigenic differences and highlights two potential mechanisms of adaptation for polymerase activity. Our study provides new insights into the epidemiological and molecular processes shaping influenza B virus evolution globally.

  13. Genome-wide evolutionary dynamics of influenza B viruses on a global scale

    Langat, Pinky; Bowden, Thomas A.; Edwards, Stephanie; Gall, Astrid; Rambaut, Andrew; Daniels, Rodney S.; Russell, Colin A.; Pybus, Oliver G.; McCauley, John

    2017-01-01

    The global-scale epidemiology and genome-wide evolutionary dynamics of influenza B remain poorly understood compared with influenza A viruses. We compiled a spatio-temporally comprehensive dataset of influenza B viruses, comprising over 2,500 genomes sampled worldwide between 1987 and 2015, including 382 newly-sequenced genomes that fill substantial gaps in previous molecular surveillance studies. Our contributed data increase the number of available influenza B virus genomes in Europe, Africa and Central Asia, improving the global context to study influenza B viruses. We reveal Yamagata-lineage diversity results from co-circulation of two antigenically-distinct groups that also segregate genetically across the entire genome, without evidence of intra-lineage reassortment. In contrast, Victoria-lineage diversity stems from geographic segregation of different genetic clades, with variability in the degree of geographic spread among clades. Differences between the lineages are reflected in their antigenic dynamics, as Yamagata-lineage viruses show alternating dominance between antigenic groups, while Victoria-lineage viruses show antigenic drift of a single lineage. Structural mapping of amino acid substitutions on trunk branches of influenza B gene phylogenies further supports these antigenic differences and highlights two potential mechanisms of adaptation for polymerase activity. Our study provides new insights into the epidemiological and molecular processes shaping influenza B virus evolution globally. PMID:29284042

  14. Climate resilient crops for improving global food security and safety.

    Dhankher, Om Parkash; Foyer, Christine H

    2018-05-01

    Food security and the protection of the environment are urgent issues for global society, particularly with the uncertainties of climate change. Changing climate is predicted to have a wide range of negative impacts on plant physiology metabolism, soil fertility and carbon sequestration, microbial activity and diversity that will limit plant growth and productivity, and ultimately food production. Ensuring global food security and food safety will require an intensive research effort across the food chain, starting with crop production and the nutritional quality of the food products. Much uncertainty remains concerning the resilience of plants, soils, and associated microbes to climate change. Intensive efforts are currently underway to improve crop yields with lower input requirements and enhance the sustainability of yield through improved biotic and abiotic stress tolerance traits. In addition, significant efforts are focused on gaining a better understanding of the root/soil interface and associated microbiomes, as well as enhancing soil properties. © 2018 The Authors Plant, Cell & Environment Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Dissonance and harmony between global and regional-scale seismic anisotropy and mantle dynamics

    Becker, T. W.

    2017-12-01

    Huge numbers of SKS splitting observations and improved surface-wave based models of azimuthal anisotropy have advanced our understanding of how convection is recorded in mantle fabrics in the upper mantle. However, we are still debating the relative importance of frozen to actively forming olivine fabrics, subduction zone anisotropy lacks a clear reference model, and regional marine studies yield conflicting evidence as to what exactly is going on at the base of the plates and below. Here, I review the degree of agreement between regional and global observations of seismic anisotropy and how well those may be matched by first-order mantle convection models. Updated bean counting can help contextualize the spatial scales of alignment, and I discuss several examples of the relative roles of plate shear to mantle density anomalies and frozen-in structure for oceanic and continental plates. Resolution of seismological models is globally uneven, but there are some locales where such exercises may yield information on the relative strength of asthenosphere and mantle. Another long-standing question is how olivine fabrics record flow under different stress and volatile conditions. I illustrate how different petrological assumptions might be used to reconcile observations of azimuthal dependency of wave speeds for both Love and Rayleigh waves, and how this could improve our models of the upper mantle, much in the spirit of Montagner's vectorial tomography. This is but one approach to improve the regional realism of global geodynamic background models to understand where in space and time dissonance arises, and if a harmonious model may yet be constructed given our assumptions about the workings of the mantle.

  16. Groundwater development stress: Global-scale indices compared to regional modeling

    Alley, William; Clark, Brian R.; Ely, Matt; Faunt, Claudia

    2018-01-01

    The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.

  17. Mycorrhizas and global environmental change: Research at different scales

    Staddon, P.L.; Heinemeyer, A.; Fitter, A.H.

    2002-01-01

    Global environmental change (GEC), in particular rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature, will affect most ecosystems. The varied responses of plants to these aspects of GEC are well documented. As with other key below-ground components of terrestrial ecosystems, the response...... of the ubiquitous mycorrhizal fungal root symbionts has received limited attention. Most of the research on the effects of GEC on mycorrhizal fungi has been pot-based with a few field (especially monoculture) studies. A major question that arises in all these studies is whether the GEC effects on the mycorrhizal...

  18. Improving the global efficiency in small hydropower practice

    Razurel, P.; Gorla, L.; Crouzy, B.; Perona, P.

    2015-12-01

    The global increase in energy production from renewable sources has seen river exploitation for small hydropower plants to also grow considerably in the last decade. River intakes used to divert water from the main course to the power plant are at the base of such practice. A key issue concern with finding innovative concepts to both design and manage such structures in order to improve classic operational rules. Among these, the Minimal Flow Release (MFR) concept has long been used in spite of its environmental inconsistency.In this work, we show that the economical and ecological efficiency of diverting water for energy production in small hydropower plants can be improved towards sustainability by engineering a novel class of flow-redistribution policies. We use the mathematical form of the Fermi-Dirac statistical distribution to define non-proportional dynamic flow-redistribution rules, which broadens the spectrum of dynamic flow releases based on proportional redistribution. The theoretical background as well as the economic interpretation is presented and applied to three case studies in order to systematically test the global performance of such policies. Out of numerical simulations, a Pareto frontier emerges in the economic vs environmental efficiency plot, which show that non-proportional distribution policies improve both efficiencies with respect to those obtained from some traditional MFR and proportional policies. This picture is shown also for long term climatic scenarios affecting water availability and the natural flow regime.In a time of intense and increasing exploitation close to resource saturation, preserving natural river reaches requires to abandon inappropriate static release policies in favor of non-proportional ones towards a sustainable use of the water resource.

  19. Global and local confinement scaling laws of NBI-heated gas-puffing plasmas on LHD

    Yamazaki, K.; Miyazawa, J.; Sakakibara, S.; Yamada, H.; Narihara, K.; Tanaka, K.; Osakabe, M.

    2003-01-01

    The relation between global confinement scaling laws and local transport characteristics is evaluated on the Large Helical Device (LHD). Previous 'new LHD' global scaling laws are revised using the precise plasma edge definition and the recent LHD data of 4th, 5th and 6th experimental campaigns. Strong Gyro-Bohm-like feature of global confinement is reconfirmed. The magnetic field dependence and geometrical scale dependence are stronger than the conventional scaling laws. Using same database of LHD data, the radial profiles of transport coefficients are evaluated, and it is reconfirmed that the local transport in the core is Gyro-Bohm-like, and that near the boundary is strong Gyro-Bohm-like. The global confinement property is consistent with effective transport coefficient near the edge. (author)

  20. Matching Social and Biophysical Scales in Extensive Livestock Production as a Basis for Adaptation to Global Change

    Sayre, N. F.; Bestelmeyer, B.

    2015-12-01

    Global livestock production is heterogeneous, and its benefits and costs vary widely across global contexts. Extensive grazing lands (or rangelands) constitute the vast majority of the land dedicated to livestock production globally, but they are relatively minor contributors to livestock-related environmental impacts. Indeed, the greatest potential for environmental damage in these lands lies in their potential for conversion to other uses, including agriculture, mining, energy production and urban development. Managing such conversion requires improving the sustainability of livestock production in the face of fragmentation, ecological and economic marginality and climate change. We present research from Mongolia and the United States demonstrating methods of improving outcomes on rangelands by improving the fit between the scales of social and biophysical processes. Especially in arid and semi-arid settings, rangelands exhibit highly variable productivity over space and time and non-linear or threshold dynamics in vegetation; climate change is projected to exacerbate these challenges and, in some cases, diminish overall productivity. Policy and governance frameworks that enable landscape-scale management and administration enable range livestock producers to adapt to these conditions. Similarly, livestock breeds that have evolved to withstand climate and vegetation change improve producers' prospects in the face of increasing variability and declining productivity. A focus on the relationships among primary production, animal production, spatial connectivity, and scale must underpin adaptation strategies in rangelands.

  1. Exploring Genetic Suppression Interactions on a Global Scale

    van Leeuwen, Jolanda; Pons, Carles; Mellor, Joseph C.; Yamaguchi, Takafumi N.; Friesen, Helena; Koschwanez, John; Ušaj, Mojca Mattiazzi; Pechlaner, Maria; Takar, Mehmet; Ušaj, Matej; VanderSluis, Benjamin; Andrusiak, Kerry; Bansal, Pritpal; Baryshnikova, Anastasia; Boone, Claire

    2016-01-01

    Genetic suppression occurs when the phenotypic defects caused by a mutation in a particular gene are rescued by a mutation in a second gene. To explore the principles of genetic suppression, we examined both literature-curated and unbiased experimental data, involving systematic genetic mapping and whole-genome sequencing, to generate a large-scale suppression network among yeast genes. Most suppression pairs identified novel relationships among functionally related genes, providing new insig...

  2. Management of Local Stressors Can Improve the Resilience of Marine Canopy Algae toGlobal Stressors

    Strain, E.M.A.; van Belzen, J.; van Dalen, J.; Bouma, T.J.; Airoldi, L.

    2015-01-01

    Coastal systems are increasingly threatened by multiple local anthropogenic and global climatic stressors. With the difficulties in remediating global stressors, management requires alternative approaches that focus on local scales. We used manipulative experiments to test whether reducing local

  3. Improvement of global and regional mean sea level derived from satellite altimetry multi missions

    Ablain, M.; Faugere, Y.; Larnicol, G.; Picot, N.; Cazenave, A.; Benveniste, J.

    2012-04-01

    With the satellite altimetry missions, the global mean sea level (GMSL) has been calculated on a continual basis since January 1993. 'Verification' phases, during which the satellites follow each other in close succession (Topex/Poseidon--Jason-1, then Jason-1--Jason-2), help to link up these different missions by precisely determining any bias between them. Envisat, ERS-1 and ERS-2 are also used, after being adjusted on these reference missions, in order to compute Mean Sea Level at high latitudes (higher than 66°N and S), and also to improve spatial resolution by combining all these missions together. The global mean sea level (MSL) deduced from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2 provide a global rate of 3.2 mm from 1993 to 2010 applying the post glacial rebound (MSL aviso website http://www.jason.oceanobs.com/msl). Besides, the regional sea level trends bring out an inhomogeneous repartition of the ocean elevation with local MSL slopes ranging from + 8 mm/yr to - 8 mm/year. A study published in 2009 [Ablain et al., 2009] has shown that the global MSL trend unceratainty was estimated at +/-0.6 mm/year with a confidence interval of 90%. The main sources of errors at global and regional scales are due to the orbit calculation and the wet troposphere correction. But others sea-level components have also a significant impact on the long-term stability of MSL as for instance the stability of instrumental parameters and the atmospheric corrections. Thanks to recent studies performed in the frame of the SALP project (supported by CNES) and Sea-level Climate Change Initiative project (supported by ESA), strong improvements have been provided for the estimation of the global and regional MSL trends. In this paper, we propose to describe them; they concern the orbit calculation thanks to new gravity fields, the atmospheric corrections thanks to ERA-interim reanalyses, the wet troposphere corrections thanks to the stability improvement, and also empirical corrections

  4. Variations in tropical convection as an amplifier of global climate change at the millennial scale

    Ivanochkoa, T.S.; Ganeshram, R.S.; Brummer, G.J.A.; Ganssen, G.M.; Jung, S.J.A.; Moreton, S.G.; Kroon, D.

    2005-01-01

    The global expression of millennial-scale climatic change during the glacial period and the persistence of this signal in Holocene records point to atmospheric teleconnections as the mechanism propagating rapid climate variations. We suggest rearrangements in the tropical convection system globally

  5. Should Global Items on Student Rating Scales Be Used for Summative Decisions?

    Berk, Ronald A.

    2013-01-01

    One of the simplest indicators of teaching or course effectiveness is student ratings on one or more global items from the entire rating scale. That approach seems intuitively sound and easy to use. Global items have even been recommended by a few researchers to get a quick-read, at-a-glance summary for summative decisions about faculty. The…

  6. Global Stability of Complex-Valued Genetic Regulatory Networks with Delays on Time Scales

    Wang Yajing

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the global exponential stability of complex-valued genetic regulatory networks with delays is investigated. Besides presenting conditions guaranteeing the existence of a unique equilibrium pattern, its global exponential stability is discussed. Some numerical examples for different time scales.

  7. Influence of ENSO on coastal flood hazard and exposure at the global-scale

    Muis, S.; Haigh, I. D.; Guimarães Nobre, G.; Aerts, J.; Ward, P.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant signal of interannual climate variability. The unusually warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific drives interannual variability in both mean and extreme sea levels, which in turn may influence the probabilities and impacts of coastal flooding. We assess the influence of ENSO on coastal flood hazard and exposure using daily timeseries from the Global Time and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset (Muis et al., 2016). As the GTSR timeseries do not include steric effects (i.e. density differences), we improve the GTSR timeseries by adding steric sea levels. Evaluation against observed sea levels shows that the including steric sea levels leads to a much better representation of the seasonal and interannual variability. We show that sea level anomalies occur during ENSO years with higher sea levels during La Niña in the South-Atlantic, Indian Ocean and the West Pacific, whereas sea levels are lower in the east Pacific. The pattern is generally inversed for El Niño. We also find an effect of ENSO in the number of people exposed to coastal flooding. Although the effect is minor at the global-scale, it may be important for flood risk management to consider at the national or sub national levels. Previous studies at the global-scale have used tide gauge observation to assess the influence of ENSO on extreme sea levels. The advantage of our approach over observations is that GTSR provides a consistent dataset with a full global coverage for the period 1979-2014. This allows us to assess ENSO's influence on sea level extremes anywhere in the world. Furthermore, it enables us to also calculate the impacts of extreme sea levels in terms of coastal flooding and exposed population. ReferencesMuis et al (2016) A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels. Nature Communications.7:11969. doi:10.1038/ncomms11969.

  8. Gathering and using information on a global scale

    Mathews, C. W.

    1977-01-01

    The importance of information gathered, integrated and analyzed over broad regions of the world is discussed. Means of acquiring information on critical areas are outlined, and the particular role that remote sensing can play is described in each case. The possible implementation of a global information system and some of the current difficulties in initiation of such a system on an operational basis are explored. In this way, issues will be surfaced for consideration. Topics include: the importance of innovative leadership, and some actions that the government might take, both in Congress and in the Executive Branch; the relationship of U.S. government activities to international interests and to industry; and the need to stimulate more private sector initiative and to transfer responsibilities from government to commercial interests.

  9. Validation of a global scale to assess the quality of interprofessional teamwork in mental health settings.

    Tomizawa, Ryoko; Yamano, Mayumi; Osako, Mitue; Hirabayashi, Naotugu; Oshima, Nobuo; Sigeta, Masahiro; Reeves, Scott

    2017-12-01

    Few scales currently exist to assess the quality of interprofessional teamwork through team members' perceptions of working together in mental health settings. The purpose of this study was to revise and validate an interprofessional scale to assess the quality of teamwork in inpatient psychiatric units and to use it multi-nationally. A literature review was undertaken to identify evaluative teamwork tools and develop an additional 12 items to ensure a broad global focus. Focus group discussions considered adaptation to different care systems using subjective judgements from 11 participants in a pre-test of items. Data quality, construct validity, reproducibility, and internal consistency were investigated in the survey using an international comparative design. Exploratory factor analysis yielded five factors with 21 items: 'patient/community centred care', 'collaborative communication', 'interprofessional conflict', 'role clarification', and 'environment'. High overall internal consistency, reproducibility, adequate face validity, and reasonable construct validity were shown in the USA and Japan. The revised Collaborative Practice Assessment Tool (CPAT) is a valid measure to assess the quality of interprofessional teamwork in psychiatry and identifies the best strategies to improve team performance. Furthermore, the revised scale will generate more rigorous evidence for collaborative practice in psychiatry internationally.

  10. Improving mine safety technology and training: establishing US global leadership

    NONE

    2006-12-15

    In 2006, the USA's record of mine safety was interrupted by fatalities that rocked the industry and caused the National Mining Association and its members to recommit to returning the US underground coal mining industry to a global mine safety leadership role. This report details a comprehensive approach to increase the odds of survival for miners in emergency situations and to create a culture of prevention of accidents. Among its 75 recommendations are a need to improve communications, mine rescue training, and escape and protection of miners. Section headings of the report are: Introduction; Review of mine emergency situations in the past 25 years: identifying and addressing the issues and complexities; Risk-based design and management; Communications technology; Escape and protection strategies; Emergency response and mine rescue procedures; Training for preparedness; Summary of recommendations; and Conclusions. 37 refs., 3 figs., 5 apps.

  11. Sustainable Development Goals for Monitoring Action to Improve Global Health.

    Cesario, Sandra K

    2016-01-01

    Women and children compose the largest segment of the more than 1 billion people worldwide who are unable to access needed health care services. To address this and other global health issues, the United Nations brought together world leaders to address growing health inequities, first by establishing the Millennium Development Goals in 2000 and more recently establishing Sustainable Development Goals, which are an intergovernmental set of 17 goals consisting of 169 targets with 304 indicators to measure compliance; they were designed to be applicable to all countries. Goal number 3, "Good Health and Well-Being: Ensure Heathy Lives and Promote Well-Being for All at All Ages," includes targets to improve the health of women and newborns. © 2016 AWHONN, the Association of Women’s Health, Obstetric and Neonatal Nurses.

  12. Identification of Phosphorylated Proteins on a Global Scale.

    Iliuk, Anton

    2018-05-31

    Liquid chromatography (LC) coupled with tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) has enabled researchers to analyze complex biological samples with unprecedented depth. It facilitates the identification and quantification of modifications within thousands of proteins in a single large-scale proteomic experiment. Analysis of phosphorylation, one of the most common and important post-translational modifications, has particularly benefited from such progress in the field. Here, detailed protocols are provided for a few well-regarded, common sample preparation methods for an effective phosphoproteomic experiment. © 2018 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

  13. How Large-Scale Research Facilities Connect to Global Research

    Lauto, Giancarlo; Valentin, Finn

    2013-01-01

    Policies for large-scale research facilities (LSRFs) often highlight their spillovers to industrial innovation and their contribution to the external connectivity of the regional innovation system hosting them. Arguably, the particular institutional features of LSRFs are conducive for collaborative...... research. However, based on data on publications produced in 2006–2009 at the Neutron Science Directorate of Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee (United States), we find that internationalization of its collaborative research is restrained by coordination costs similar to those characterizing other...

  14. Irrational Delay Revisited: Examining Five Procrastination Scales in a Global Sample.

    Svartdal, Frode; Steel, Piers

    2017-01-01

    Scales attempting to measure procrastination focus on different facets of the phenomenon, yet they share a common understanding of procrastination as an unnecessary, unwanted, and disadvantageous delay. The present paper examines in a global sample ( N = 4,169) five different procrastination scales - Decisional Procrastination Scale (DPS), Irrational Procrastination Scale (IPS), Pure Procrastination Scale (PPS), Adult Inventory of Procrastination Scale (AIP), and General Procrastination Scale (GPS), focusing on factor structures and item functioning using Confirmatory Factor Analysis and Item Response Theory. The results indicated that The PPS (12 items selected from DPS, AIP, and GPS) measures different facets of procrastination even better than the three scales it is based on. An even shorter version of the PPS (5 items focusing on irrational delay), corresponds well to the nine-item IPS. Both scales demonstrate good psychometric properties and appear to be superior measures of core procrastination attributes than alternative procrastination scales.

  15. Exploring genetic suppression interactions on a global scale.

    van Leeuwen, Jolanda; Pons, Carles; Mellor, Joseph C; Yamaguchi, Takafumi N; Friesen, Helena; Koschwanez, John; Ušaj, Mojca Mattiazzi; Pechlaner, Maria; Takar, Mehmet; Ušaj, Matej; VanderSluis, Benjamin; Andrusiak, Kerry; Bansal, Pritpal; Baryshnikova, Anastasia; Boone, Claire E; Cao, Jessica; Cote, Atina; Gebbia, Marinella; Horecka, Gene; Horecka, Ira; Kuzmin, Elena; Legro, Nicole; Liang, Wendy; van Lieshout, Natascha; McNee, Margaret; San Luis, Bryan-Joseph; Shaeri, Fatemeh; Shuteriqi, Ermira; Sun, Song; Yang, Lu; Youn, Ji-Young; Yuen, Michael; Costanzo, Michael; Gingras, Anne-Claude; Aloy, Patrick; Oostenbrink, Chris; Murray, Andrew; Graham, Todd R; Myers, Chad L; Andrews, Brenda J; Roth, Frederick P; Boone, Charles

    2016-11-04

    Genetic suppression occurs when the phenotypic defects caused by a mutation in a particular gene are rescued by a mutation in a second gene. To explore the principles of genetic suppression, we examined both literature-curated and unbiased experimental data, involving systematic genetic mapping and whole-genome sequencing, to generate a large-scale suppression network among yeast genes. Most suppression pairs identified novel relationships among functionally related genes, providing new insights into the functional wiring diagram of the cell. In addition to suppressor mutations, we identified frequent secondary mutations,in a subset of genes, that likely cause a delay in the onset of stationary phase, which appears to promote their enrichment within a propagating population. These findings allow us to formulate and quantify general mechanisms of genetic suppression. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  16. Symmetric scaling properties in global surface air temperature anomalies

    Varotsos, Costas A.; Efstathiou, Maria N.

    2015-08-01

    We have recently suggested "long-term memory" or internal long-range correlation within the time-series of land-surface air temperature (LSAT) anomalies in both hemispheres. For example, an increasing trend in the LSAT anomalies is followed by another one at a different time in a power-law fashion. However, our previous research was mainly focused on the overall long-term persistence, while in the present study, the upward and downward scaling dynamics of the LSAT anomalies are analysed, separately. Our results show that no significant fluctuation differences were found between the increments and decrements in LSAT anomalies, over the whole Earth and over each hemisphere, individually. On the contrary, the combination of land-surface air and sea-surface water temperature anomalies seemed to cause a departure from symmetry and the increments in the land and sea surface temperature anomalies appear to be more persistent than the decrements.

  17. Improved HIV testing coverage after scale-up of ... - Lusaka

    Improved HIV testing coverage after scale-up of antiretroviral therapy programs in urban Zambia: Evidence from serial hospital surveillance. ... Background: We evaluated changing HIV testing coverage and prevalence rates before and after expanding city-wide antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs in Lusaka, Zambia.

  18. Training needs of small scale poultry farmers on improved ...

    Poultry business is a job opportunity for numerous for earning income and ... needs of the small scale commercial poultry farmers to improve poultry production ... strategies (88%) while only 24.1% of the respondents need training on types of ...

  19. The (in)effectiveness of Global Land Policies on Large-Scale Land Acquisition

    Verhoog, S.M.

    2014-01-01

    Due to current crises, large-scale land acquisition (LSLA) is becoming a topic of growing concern. Public data from the ‘Land Matrix Global Observatory’ project (Land Matrix 2014a) demonstrates that since 2000, 1,664 large-scale land transactions in low- and middle-income countries were reported,

  20. Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

    Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

    2006-01-01

    The Earth is a hierarchy of volumes of different size. Driven by planetary convection these volumes are involved into joint and relative movement. The movement is controlled by a wide variety of processes on and around the fractal mesh of boundary zones, and does produce earthquakes. This hierarchy of movable volumes composes a large non-linear dynamical system. Prediction of such a system in a sense of extrapolation of trajectory into the future is futile. However, upon coarse-graining the integral empirical regularities emerge opening possibilities of prediction in a sense of the commonly accepted consensus definition worked out in 1976 by the US National Research Council. Implications of the understanding hierarchical nature of lithosphere and its dynamics based on systematic monitoring and evidence of its unified space-energy similarity at different scales help avoiding basic errors in earthquake prediction claims. They suggest rules and recipes of adequate earthquake prediction classification, comparison and optimization. The approach has already led to the design of reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique. Its real-time testing aimed at prediction of the largest earthquakes worldwide has proved beyond any reasonable doubt the effectiveness of practical earthquake forecasting. In the first approximation, the accuracy is about 1-5 years and 5-10 times the anticipated source dimension. Further analysis allows reducing spatial uncertainty down to 1-3 source dimensions, although at a cost of additional failures-to-predict. Despite of limited accuracy a considerable damage could be prevented by timely knowledgeable use of the existing predictions and earthquake prediction strategies. The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster seems to be the first indication that the methodology, designed for prediction of M8.0+ earthquakes can be rescaled for prediction of both smaller magnitude earthquakes (e.g., down to M5.5+ in Italy) and

  1. Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

    Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

    2006-03-01

    The Earth is a hierarchy of volumes of different size. Driven by planetary convection these volumes are involved into joint and relative movement. The movement is controlled by a wide variety of processes on and around the fractal mesh of boundary zones, and does produce earthquakes. This hierarchy of movable volumes composes a large non-linear dynamical system. Prediction of such a system in a sense of extrapolation of trajectory into the future is futile. However, upon coarse-graining the integral empirical regularities emerge opening possibilities of prediction in a sense of the commonly accepted consensus definition worked out in 1976 by the US National Research Council. Implications of the understanding hierarchical nature of lithosphere and its dynamics based on systematic monitoring and evidence of its unified space-energy similarity at different scales help avoiding basic errors in earthquake prediction claims. They suggest rules and recipes of adequate earthquake prediction classification, comparison and optimization. The approach has already led to the design of reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique. Its real-time testing aimed at prediction of the largest earthquakes worldwide has proved beyond any reasonable doubt the effectiveness of practical earthquake forecasting. In the first approximation, the accuracy is about 1-5 years and 5-10 times the anticipated source dimension. Further analysis allows reducing spatial uncertainty down to 1-3 source dimensions, although at a cost of additional failures-to-predict. Despite of limited accuracy a considerable damage could be prevented by timely knowledgeable use of the existing predictions and earthquake prediction strategies. The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster seems to be the first indication that the methodology, designed for prediction of M8.0+ earthquakes can be rescaled for prediction of both smaller magnitude earthquakes (e.g., down to M5.5+ in Italy) and

  2. Global Scale Attribution of Anthropogenic and Natural Dust Sources and their Emission Rates Based on MODIS Deep Blue Aerosol Products

    Ginoux, Paul; Prospero, Joseph M.; Gill, Thomas E.; Hsu, N. Christina; Zhao, Ming

    2012-01-01

    Our understanding of the global dust cycle is limited by a dearth of information about dust sources, especially small-scale features which could account for a large fraction of global emissions. Here we present a global-scale high-resolution (0.1 deg) mapping of sources based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue estimates of dust optical depth in conjunction with other data sets including land use. We ascribe dust sources to natural and anthropogenic (primarily agricultural) origins, calculate their respective contributions to emissions, and extensively compare these products against literature. Natural dust sources globally account for 75% of emissions; anthropogenic sources account for 25%. North Africa accounts for 55% of global dust emissions with only 8% being anthropogenic, mostly from the Sahel. Elsewhere, anthropogenic dust emissions can be much higher (75% in Australia). Hydrologic dust sources (e.g., ephemeral water bodies) account for 31% worldwide; 15% of them are natural while 85% are anthropogenic. Globally, 20% of emissions are from vegetated surfaces, primarily desert shrublands and agricultural lands. Since anthropogenic dust sources are associated with land use and ephemeral water bodies, both in turn linked to the hydrological cycle, their emissions are affected by climate variability. Such changes in dust emissions can impact climate, air quality, and human health. Improved dust emission estimates will require a better mapping of threshold wind velocities, vegetation dynamics, and surface conditions (soil moisture and land use) especially in the sensitive regions identified here, as well as improved ability to address small-scale convective processes producing dust via cold pool (haboob) events frequent in monsoon regimes.

  3. Nonstandard scaling law of fluctuations in finite-size systems of globally coupled oscillators.

    Nishikawa, Isao; Tanaka, Gouhei; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2013-08-01

    Universal scaling laws form one of the central issues in physics. A nonstandard scaling law or a breakdown of a standard scaling law, on the other hand, can often lead to the finding of a new universality class in physical systems. Recently, we found that a statistical quantity related to fluctuations follows a nonstandard scaling law with respect to the system size in a synchronized state of globally coupled nonidentical phase oscillators [I. Nishikawa et al., Chaos 22, 013133 (2012)]. However, it is still unclear how widely this nonstandard scaling law is observed. In the present paper, we discuss the conditions required for the unusual scaling law in globally coupled oscillator systems and validate the conditions by numerical simulations of several different models.

  4. Reconstructing Global-scale Ionospheric Outflow With a Satellite Constellation

    Liemohn, M. W.; Welling, D. T.; Jahn, J. M.; Valek, P. W.; Elliott, H. A.; Ilie, R.; Khazanov, G. V.; Glocer, A.; Ganushkina, N. Y.; Zou, S.

    2017-12-01

    The question of how many satellites it would take to accurately map the spatial distribution of ionospheric outflow is addressed in this study. Given an outflow spatial map, this image is then reconstructed from a limited number virtual satellite pass extractions from the original values. An assessment is conducted of the goodness of fit as a function of number of satellites in the reconstruction, placement of the satellite trajectories relative to the polar cap and auroral oval, season and universal time (i.e., dipole tilt relative to the Sun), geomagnetic activity level, and interpolation technique. It is found that the accuracy of the reconstructions increases sharply from one to a few satellites, but then improves only marginally with additional spacecraft beyond 4. Increased dwell time of the satellite trajectories in the auroral zone improves the reconstruction, therefore a high-but-not-exactly-polar orbit is most effective for this task. Local time coverage is also an important factor, shifting the auroral zone to different locations relative to the virtual satellite orbit paths. The expansion and contraction of the polar cap and auroral zone with geomagnetic activity influences the coverage of the key outflow regions, with different optimal orbit configurations for each level of activity. Finally, it is found that reconstructing each magnetic latitude band individually produces a better fit to the original image than 2-D image reconstruction method (e.g., triangulation). A high-latitude, high-altitude constellation mission concept is presented that achieves acceptably accurate outflow reconstructions.

  5. Act local, think global: how the Malawi experience of scaling up antiretroviral treatment has informed global policy

    Anthony D. Harries

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART in Malawi was based on a public health approach adapted to its resource-poor setting, with principles and practices borrowed from the successful tuberculosis control framework. From 2004 to 2015, the number of new patients started on ART increased from about 3000 to over 820,000. Despite being a small country, Malawi has made a significant contribution to the 15 million people globally on ART and has also contributed policy and service delivery innovations that have supported international guidelines and scale up in other countries. The first set of global guidelines for scaling up ART released by the World Health Organization (WHO in 2002 focused on providing clinical guidance. In Malawi, the ART guidelines adopted from the outset a more operational and programmatic approach with recommendations on health systems and services that were needed to deliver HIV treatment to affected populations. Seven years after the start of national scale-up, Malawi launched a new strategy offering all HIV-infected pregnant women lifelong ART regardless of the CD4-cell count, named Option B+. This strategy was subsequently incorporated into a WHO programmatic guide in 2012 and WHO ART guidelines in 2013, and has since then been adopted by the majority of countries worldwide. In conclusion, the Malawi experience of ART scale-up has become a blueprint for a public health response to HIV and has informed international efforts to end the AIDS epidemic by 2030.

  6. Act local, think global: how the Malawi experience of scaling up antiretroviral treatment has informed global policy.

    Harries, Anthony D; Ford, Nathan; Jahn, Andreas; Schouten, Erik J; Libamba, Edwin; Chimbwandira, Frank; Maher, Dermot

    2016-09-06

    The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Malawi was based on a public health approach adapted to its resource-poor setting, with principles and practices borrowed from the successful tuberculosis control framework. From 2004 to 2015, the number of new patients started on ART increased from about 3000 to over 820,000. Despite being a small country, Malawi has made a significant contribution to the 15 million people globally on ART and has also contributed policy and service delivery innovations that have supported international guidelines and scale up in other countries. The first set of global guidelines for scaling up ART released by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2002 focused on providing clinical guidance. In Malawi, the ART guidelines adopted from the outset a more operational and programmatic approach with recommendations on health systems and services that were needed to deliver HIV treatment to affected populations. Seven years after the start of national scale-up, Malawi launched a new strategy offering all HIV-infected pregnant women lifelong ART regardless of the CD4-cell count, named Option B+. This strategy was subsequently incorporated into a WHO programmatic guide in 2012 and WHO ART guidelines in 2013, and has since then been adopted by the majority of countries worldwide. In conclusion, the Malawi experience of ART scale-up has become a blueprint for a public health response to HIV and has informed international efforts to end the AIDS epidemic by 2030.

  7. REALITIES AND PERSPECTIVES OF BUSINESS TOURISM ON A GLOBAL SCALE

    COSMESCU IOAN

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available At en extensive level, business tourism is often defined as being the action of travelling for business purposes, more precisely to solve commercial problems or to attend different conferences and meetings organized by economic institutions in order to diversify and improve the quality of the economic goods and services. Although, the vast majority of these actions may involve running a paid activity, they are part of tourism, the organization and their implementation requires the use of technical facilities for accommodation, food services, leisure and consumption of specific services supplied by the organizers. Until now and much more to come, business travel is and will be the privilege of developed countries with established and authentic market economies. However, business travel is the most important niche which can enable Romania’s access to the international touristic circuit.

  8. Combating healthcare corruption and fraud with improved global health governance

    2012-01-01

    Corruption is a serious threat to global health outcomes, leading to financial waste and adverse health consequences. Yet, forms of corruption impacting global health are endemic worldwide in public and private sectors, and in developed and resource-poor settings alike. Allegations of misuse of funds and fraud in global health initiatives also threaten future investment. Current domestic and sectorial-level responses are fragmented and have been criticized as ineffective. In order to address this issue, we propose a global health governance framework calling for international recognition of “global health corruption” and development of a treaty protocol to combat this crucial issue. PMID:23088820

  9. Combating healthcare corruption and fraud with improved global health governance.

    Mackey, Tim K; Liang, Bryan A

    2012-10-22

    Corruption is a serious threat to global health outcomes, leading to financial waste and adverse health consequences. Yet, forms of corruption impacting global health are endemic worldwide in public and private sectors, and in developed and resource-poor settings alike. Allegations of misuse of funds and fraud in global health initiatives also threaten future investment. Current domestic and sectorial-level responses are fragmented and have been criticized as ineffective. In order to address this issue, we propose a global health governance framework calling for international recognition of "global health corruption" and development of a treaty protocol to combat this crucial issue.

  10. EXAMINING FLORISTIC BOUNDARIES BETWEEN GARDEN TYPES AT THE GLOBAL SCALE

    Josep Padullés Cubino

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Los jardines son una importante fuente de bienes y servicios para los residentes de un hogar. Su función se traduce directamente en el tipo de plantas que en ellos se cultiva. Por otro lado, la terminología usada para denominar los distintos tipos de jardín en inglés (garden, homegarden, forest garden, etc. varía según su función y propósito. Los factores que explican la diferenciación y distribución de los jardines a escala global no habían sido previamente explorados hasta ahora. En este estudio se han analizado los inventarios florísticos de 44 conjuntos de jardines de to do el mundo para explorar sus similitudes taxonómicas y los factores que configuran la distribución de su flora. Para ello, se escogieron distintas variables biofísicas y socioeconómicas a una escala apropiada de trabajo. Como resultado, los factores biofísicos y climáticos (temperatura, precipitación, evapotranspiración potencial y distancia entre asentamientos se hallaron significativamente relacionados con la distribución de las especies; no obstante, todos estos factores resultaron ser menos importantes que el GDP (PIB per cápita, utilizado aquí como indicador de los ingresos del hogar, y que se obtuvo como el principal impulsor de la composición de los jardines. También el resto de factores sociales y culturales incluidos en el análisis, como son la similitud entre las lenguas de los distintos asentamientos o la densidad de población, se encontraron como variables significativas. Cabe señalar que el presente análisis omite cierto número de variables debido a la no disponibilidad de datos. Algunas de estas variables son el tamaño del jardín o el género de su dueño, las cuales han sido reconocidas previamente como agentes influyentes en la composición vegetal de los jardines. El estudio concluye que los géneros vegetales cultivados en los conjuntos de jardines son muy diferentes entre sí y que, por lo tanto, las distinciones entre

  11. Scaling production and improving efficiency in DEA: an interactive approach

    Rödder, Wilhelm; Kleine, Andreas; Dellnitz, Andreas

    2017-10-01

    DEA models help a DMU to detect its (in-)efficiency and to improve activities, if necessary. Efficiency is only one economic aim for a decision-maker; however, up- or downsizing might be a second one. Improving efficiency is the main topic in DEA; the long-term strategy towards the right production size should attract our attention as well. Not always the management of a DMU primarily focuses on technical efficiency but rather is interested in gaining scale effects. In this paper, a formula for returns to scale (RTS) is developed, and this formula is even applicable for interior points of technology. Particularly, technical and scale inefficient DMUs need sophisticated instruments to improve their situation. Considering RTS as well as efficiency, in this paper, we give an advice for each DMU to find an economically reliable path from its actual situation to better activities and finally to most productive scale size (mpss), perhaps. For realizing this path, we propose an interactive algorithm, thus harmonizing the scientific findings and the interests of the management. Small numerical examples illustrate such paths for selected DMUs; an empirical application in theatre management completes the contribution.

  12. Improving left spatial neglect through music scale playing.

    Bernardi, Nicolò Francesco; Cioffi, Maria Cristina; Ronchi, Roberta; Maravita, Angelo; Bricolo, Emanuela; Zigiotto, Luca; Perucca, Laura; Vallar, Giuseppe

    2017-03-01

    The study assessed whether the auditory reference provided by a music scale could improve spatial exploration of a standard musical instrument keyboard in right-brain-damaged patients with left spatial neglect. As performing music scales involves the production of predictable successive pitches, the expectation of the subsequent note may facilitate patients to explore a larger extension of space in the left affected side, during the production of music scales from right to left. Eleven right-brain-damaged stroke patients with left spatial neglect, 12 patients without neglect, and 12 age-matched healthy participants played descending scales on a music keyboard. In a counterbalanced design, the participants' exploratory performance was assessed while producing scales in three feedback conditions: With congruent sound, no-sound, or random sound feedback provided by the keyboard. The number of keys played and the timing of key press were recorded. Spatial exploration by patients with left neglect was superior with congruent sound feedback, compared to both Silence and Random sound conditions. Both the congruent and incongruent sound conditions were associated with a greater deceleration in all groups. The frame provided by the music scale improves exploration of the left side of space, contralateral to the right hemisphere, damaged in patients with left neglect. Performing a scale with congruent sounds may trigger at some extent preserved auditory and spatial multisensory representations of successive sounds, thus influencing the time course of space scanning, and ultimately resulting in a more extensive spatial exploration. These findings offer new perspectives also for the rehabilitation of the disorder. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

  13. From global circulation to flood loss: Coupling models across the scales

    Felder, Guido; Gomez-Navarro, Juan Jose; Bozhinova, Denica; Zischg, Andreas; Raible, Christoph C.; Ole, Roessler; Martius, Olivia; Weingartner, Rolf

    2017-04-01

    The prediction and the prevention of flood losses requires an extensive understanding of underlying meteorological, hydrological, hydraulic and damage processes. Coupled models help to improve the understanding of such underlying processes and therefore contribute the understanding of flood risk. Using such a modelling approach to determine potentially flood-affected areas and damages requires a complex coupling between several models operating at different spatial and temporal scales. Although the isolated parts of the single modelling components are well established and commonly used in the literature, a full coupling including a mesoscale meteorological model driven by a global circulation one, a hydrologic model, a hydrodynamic model and a flood impact and loss model has not been reported so far. In the present study, we tackle the application of such a coupled model chain in terms of computational resources, scale effects, and model performance. From a technical point of view, results show the general applicability of such a coupled model, as well as good model performance. From a practical point of view, such an approach enables the prediction of flood-induced damages, although some future challenges have been identified.

  14. Improving molecular tools for global surveillance of measles virus⋆

    Bankamp, Bettina; Byrd-Leotis, Lauren A.; Lopareva, Elena N.; Woo, Gibson K.S.; Liu, Chunyu; Jee, Youngmee; Ahmed, Hinda; Lim, Wilina W.; Ramamurty, Nalini; Mulders, Mick N.; Featherstone, David; Bellini, William J.; Rota, Paul A.

    2017-01-01

    Background The genetic characterization of wild-type measles viruses plays an important role in the description of viral transmission pathways and the verification of measles elimination. The 450 nucleotides that encode the carboxyl-terminus of the nucleoprotein (N-450) are routinely sequenced for genotype analysis. Objectives The objectives of this study were to develop improved primers and controls for RT-PCR reactions used for genotyping of measles samples and to develop a method to provide a convenient, safe, and inexpensive means to distribute measles RNA for RT-PCR assays and practice panels. Study design A newly designed, genetically defined synthetic RNA and RNA isolated from cells infected with currently circulating genotypes were used to compare the sensitivity of primer pairs in RT-PCR and nested PCR. FTA® cards loaded with lysates of measles infected cells were tested for their ability to preserve viral RNA and destroy virus infectivity. Results A new primer pair, MeV216/MeV214, was able to amplify N-450 from viruses representing 10 currently circulating genotypes and a genotype A vaccine strain and demonstrated 100-fold increased sensitivity compared to the previously used primer set. A nested PCR assay further increased the sensitivity of detection from patient samples. A synthetic positive control RNA was developed that produced PCR products that are distinguishable by size from PCR products amplified from clinical samples. FTA® cards completely inactivated measles virus and stabilized RNA for at least six months. Conclusions These improved molecular tools will advance molecular characterization of circulating measles viruses globally and provide enhanced quality control measures. PMID:23806666

  15. Improving molecular tools for global surveillance of measles virus.

    Bankamp, Bettina; Byrd-Leotis, Lauren A; Lopareva, Elena N; Woo, Gibson K S; Liu, Chunyu; Jee, Youngmee; Ahmed, Hinda; Lim, Wilina W; Ramamurty, Nalini; Mulders, Mick N; Featherstone, David; Bellini, William J; Rota, Paul A

    2013-09-01

    The genetic characterization of wild-type measles viruses plays an important role in the description of viral transmission pathways and the verification of measles elimination. The 450 nucleotides that encode the carboxyl-terminus of the nucleoprotein (N-450) are routinely sequenced for genotype analysis. The objectives of this study were to develop improved primers and controls for RT-PCR reactions used for genotyping of measles samples and to develop a method to provide a convenient, safe, and inexpensive means to distribute measles RNA for RT-PCR assays and practice panels. A newly designed, genetically defined synthetic RNA and RNA isolated from cells infected with currently circulating genotypes were used to compare the sensitivity of primer pairs in RT-PCR and nested PCR. FTA® cards loaded with lysates of measles infected cells were tested for their ability to preserve viral RNA and destroy virus infectivity. A new primer pair, MeV216/MeV214, was able to amplify N-450 from viruses representing 10 currently circulating genotypes and a genotype A vaccine strain and demonstrated 100-fold increased sensitivity compared to the previously used primer set. A nested PCR assay further increased the sensitivity of detection from patient samples. A synthetic positive control RNA was developed that produced PCR products that are distinguishable by size from PCR products amplified from clinical samples. FTA® cards completely inactivated measles virus and stabilized RNA for at least six months. These improved molecular tools will advance molecular characterization of circulating measles viruses globally and provide enhanced quality control measures. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  16. Improving models to predict phenological responses to global change

    Richardson, Andrew D. [Harvard College, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-11-25

    The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digital cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.

  17. Global Lessons In Frugal Innovation To Improve Health Care Delivery In The United States.

    Bhatti, Yasser; Taylor, Andrea; Harris, Matthew; Wadge, Hester; Escobar, Erin; Prime, Matt; Patel, Hannah; Carter, Alexander W; Parston, Greg; Darzi, Ara W; Udayakumar, Krishna

    2017-11-01

    In a 2015 global study of low-cost or frugal innovations, we identified five leading innovations that scaled successfully in their original contexts and that may provide insights for scaling such innovations in the United States. We describe common themes among these diverse innovations, critical factors for their translation to the United States to improve the efficiency and quality of health care, and lessons for the implementation and scaling of other innovations. We highlight promising trends in the United States that support adapting these innovations, including growing interest in moving care out of health care facilities and into community and home settings; the growth of alternative payment models and incentives to experiment with new approaches to population health and care delivery; and the increasing use of diverse health professionals, such as community health workers and advanced practice providers. Our findings should inspire policy makers and health care professionals and inform them about the potential for globally sourced frugal innovations to benefit US health care.

  18. Improving the Performance of the Extreme-scale Simulator

    Engelmann, Christian [ORNL; Naughton III, Thomas J [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    Investigating the performance of parallel applications at scale on future high-performance computing (HPC) architectures and the performance impact of different architecture choices is an important component of HPC hardware/software co-design. The Extreme-scale Simulator (xSim) is a simulation-based toolkit for investigating the performance of parallel applications at scale. xSim scales to millions of simulated Message Passing Interface (MPI) processes. The overhead introduced by a simulation tool is an important performance and productivity aspect. This paper documents two improvements to xSim: (1) a new deadlock resolution protocol to reduce the parallel discrete event simulation management overhead and (2) a new simulated MPI message matching algorithm to reduce the oversubscription management overhead. The results clearly show a significant performance improvement, such as by reducing the simulation overhead for running the NAS Parallel Benchmark suite inside the simulator from 1,020\\% to 238% for the conjugate gradient (CG) benchmark and from 102% to 0% for the embarrassingly parallel (EP) and benchmark, as well as, from 37,511% to 13,808% for CG and from 3,332% to 204% for EP with accurate process failure simulation.

  19. The Stanford Microsurgery and Resident Training (SMaRT) Scale: validation of an on-line global rating scale for technical assessment.

    Satterwhite, Thomas; Son, Ji; Carey, Joseph; Echo, Anthony; Spurling, Terry; Paro, John; Gurtner, Geoffrey; Chang, James; Lee, Gordon K

    2014-05-01

    We previously reported results of our on-line microsurgery training program, showing that residents who had access to our website significantly improved their cognitive and technical skills. In this study, we report an objective means for expert evaluators to reliably rate trainees' technical skills under the microscope, with the use of our novel global rating scale. "Microsurgery Essentials" (http://smartmicrosurgery.com) is our on-line training curriculum. Residents were randomly divided into 2 groups: 1 group reviewed this online resource and the other did not. Pre- and post-tests consisted of videotaped microsurgical sessions in which the trainee performed "microsurgery" on 3 different models: latex glove, penrose drain, and the dorsal vessel of a chicken foot. The SMaRT (Stanford Microsurgery and Resident Training) scale, consisting of 9 categories graded on a 5-point Likert scale, was used to assess the trainees. Results were analyzed with ANOVA and Student t test, with P less than 0.05 indicating statistical significance. Seventeen residents participated in the study. The SMaRT scale adequately differentiated the performance of more experienced senior residents (PGY-4 to PGY-6, total average score=3.43) from less experienced junior residents (PGY-1 to PGY-3, total average score=2.10, P0.05). Additionally, junior residents who had access to our website showed a significant increase in their graded technical performance by 0.7 points when compared to residents who did not have access to the website who showed an improvement of only 0.2 points (P=0.01). Our SMaRT scale is valid and reliable in assessing the microsurgical skills of residents and other trainees. Current trainees are more likely to use self-directed on-line education because of its easy accessibility and interactive format. Our global rating scale can help ensure residents are achieving appropriate technical milestones.

  20. Improving Global Multi-target Tracking with Local Updates

    Milan, Anton; Gade, Rikke; Dick, Anthony

    2014-01-01

    -target tracker, if they result in a reduction in the global cost function. Since tracking failures typically arise when targets become occluded, we propose a local data association scheme to maintain the target identities in these situations. We demonstrate a reduction of up to 50% in the global cost function...

  1. Global Goal Setting for Improving National Governance and Policy

    Biermann, F.; Stevens, C.; Bernstein, S.; Gupta, A.; Kanie, N.; Nilsson, M.; Scobie, M.

    2017-01-01

    Can better governance, in itself, be a subject for global goal setting? This question stands at the center of this chapter, which focuses on the inclusion of “governance goals” in global goal-setting mechanisms, especially the Sustainable Development Goals agreed upon by the UN General Assembly in

  2. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service: facilitating the prediction of air quality from global to local scales

    Engelen, R. J.; Peuch, V. H.

    2017-12-01

    The European Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) operationally provides daily forecasts of global atmospheric composition and regional air quality. The global forecasting system is using ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), which is used for numerical weather prediction and which has been extended with modules for atmospheric chemistry, aerosols and greenhouse gases. The regional forecasts are produced by an ensemble of seven operational European air quality models that take their boundary conditions from the global system and provide an ensemble median with ensemble spread as their main output. Both the global and regional forecasting systems are feeding their output into air quality models on a variety of scales in various parts of the world. We will introduce the CAMS service chain and provide illustrations of its use in downstream applications. Both the usage of the daily forecasts and the usage of global and regional reanalyses will be addressed.

  3. Analysis of global multiscale finite element methods for wave equations with continuum spatial scales

    Jiang, Lijian; Efendiev, Yalchin; Ginting, Victor

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we discuss a numerical multiscale approach for solving wave equations with heterogeneous coefficients. Our interest comes from geophysics applications and we assume that there is no scale separation with respect to spatial variables. To obtain the solution of these multiscale problems on a coarse grid, we compute global fields such that the solution smoothly depends on these fields. We present a Galerkin multiscale finite element method using the global information and provide a convergence analysis when applied to solve the wave equations. We investigate the relation between the smoothness of the global fields and convergence rates of the global Galerkin multiscale finite element method for the wave equations. Numerical examples demonstrate that the use of global information renders better accuracy for wave equations with heterogeneous coefficients than the local multiscale finite element method. © 2010 IMACS.

  4. Analysis of global multiscale finite element methods for wave equations with continuum spatial scales

    Jiang, Lijian

    2010-08-01

    In this paper, we discuss a numerical multiscale approach for solving wave equations with heterogeneous coefficients. Our interest comes from geophysics applications and we assume that there is no scale separation with respect to spatial variables. To obtain the solution of these multiscale problems on a coarse grid, we compute global fields such that the solution smoothly depends on these fields. We present a Galerkin multiscale finite element method using the global information and provide a convergence analysis when applied to solve the wave equations. We investigate the relation between the smoothness of the global fields and convergence rates of the global Galerkin multiscale finite element method for the wave equations. Numerical examples demonstrate that the use of global information renders better accuracy for wave equations with heterogeneous coefficients than the local multiscale finite element method. © 2010 IMACS.

  5. Identify: Improving industrial energy efficiency and mitigating global climate change

    Lazarus, M.; Hill, D.; Cornland, D.W.; Heaps, C.; Hippel, D. von; Williams, R.

    1997-07-01

    The use of energy in the industrial sectors of nations with both industrialized and developing economies will continue to be, a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly carbon dioxide. The patterns of industrial-sector energy use--energy provided primarily by the combustion of fossil fuels-have shifted both within the between countries in recent decades. Projections of future energy use and carbon-dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions suggest continued shifts in these patterns, as industrial production in developed countries stabilizes and declines, while industrial output in the developing world continues to expand. This expansion of industrial-sector activity and CO{sub 2} emissions in developing countries presents both a challenge and an opportunity. To seize this opportunity and contribute to international efforts to mitigate global climate change, the United National Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) recently initiated a two-phase effort to help improve the efficiency of energy-intensive industries (iron and steel, chemicals, refining, paper and pulp, and cement) in developing countries. As part of the Phase I, the authors reviewed industrial sector scenarios and to initiated development of a software-based toolkit for identifying and assessing GHG mitigating technologies. This toolkit, called IDENTIFY, is comprised of a technology inventory and a companion economic analysis tool. In addition, UNIDO commissioned institutions in India, South Africa, and Argentina to review energy use patterns and savings opportunities in selected industries across nine developing countries, and contribute to the development of the IDENTIFY toolkit. UNIDO is now preparing to launch Phase 2, which will focus on full development and dissemination of the IDENTIFY toolkit through seminars and case studies around the world. This paper describes Phase 1 of the UNIDO project.

  6. Identify: Improving industrial energy efficiency and mitigating global climate change

    Lazarus, M.; Hill, D.; Cornland, D.W.; Heaps, C.; Hippel, D. von; Williams, R.

    1997-01-01

    The use of energy in the industrial sectors of nations with both industrialized and developing economies will continue to be, a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly carbon dioxide. The patterns of industrial-sector energy use--energy provided primarily by the combustion of fossil fuels-have shifted both within the between countries in recent decades. Projections of future energy use and carbon-dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions suggest continued shifts in these patterns, as industrial production in developed countries stabilizes and declines, while industrial output in the developing world continues to expand. This expansion of industrial-sector activity and CO 2 emissions in developing countries presents both a challenge and an opportunity. To seize this opportunity and contribute to international efforts to mitigate global climate change, the United National Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) recently initiated a two-phase effort to help improve the efficiency of energy-intensive industries (iron and steel, chemicals, refining, paper and pulp, and cement) in developing countries. As part of the Phase I, the authors reviewed industrial sector scenarios and to initiated development of a software-based toolkit for identifying and assessing GHG mitigating technologies. This toolkit, called IDENTIFY, is comprised of a technology inventory and a companion economic analysis tool. In addition, UNIDO commissioned institutions in India, South Africa, and Argentina to review energy use patterns and savings opportunities in selected industries across nine developing countries, and contribute to the development of the IDENTIFY toolkit. UNIDO is now preparing to launch Phase 2, which will focus on full development and dissemination of the IDENTIFY toolkit through seminars and case studies around the world. This paper describes Phase 1 of the UNIDO project

  7. Biodiversity and Climate Modeling Workshop Series: Identifying gaps and needs for improving large-scale biodiversity models

    Weiskopf, S. R.; Myers, B.; Beard, T. D.; Jackson, S. T.; Tittensor, D.; Harfoot, M.; Senay, G. B.

    2017-12-01

    At the global scale, well-accepted global circulation models and agreed-upon scenarios for future climate from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are available. In contrast, biodiversity modeling at the global scale lacks analogous tools. While there is great interest in development of similar bodies and efforts for international monitoring and modelling of biodiversity at the global scale, equivalent modelling tools are in their infancy. This lack of global biodiversity models compared to the extensive array of general circulation models provides a unique opportunity to bring together climate, ecosystem, and biodiversity modeling experts to promote development of integrated approaches in modeling global biodiversity. Improved models are needed to understand how we are progressing towards the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, many of which are not on track to meet the 2020 goal, threatening global biodiversity conservation, monitoring, and sustainable use. We brought together biodiversity, climate, and remote sensing experts to try to 1) identify lessons learned from the climate community that can be used to improve global biodiversity models; 2) explore how NASA and other remote sensing products could be better integrated into global biodiversity models and 3) advance global biodiversity modeling, prediction, and forecasting to inform the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, and the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Global Assessment of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. The 1st In-Person meeting focused on determining a roadmap for effective assessment of biodiversity model projections and forecasts by 2030 while integrating and assimilating remote sensing data and applying lessons learned, when appropriate, from climate modeling. Here, we present the outcomes and lessons learned from our first E-discussion and in-person meeting and discuss the next steps for future meetings.

  8. Carbon budgets of biological soil crusts at micro-, meso-, and global scales

    Sancho, Leopoldo G; Belnap, Jayne; Colesie, Claudia; Raggio, Jose; Weber, Bettina

    2016-01-01

    The importance of biocrusts in the ecology of arid lands across all continents is widely recognized. In spite of this broad distribution, contributions of biocrusts to the global biogeochemical cycles have only recently been considered. While these studies opened a new view on the global role of biocrusts, they also clearly revealed the lack of data for many habitats and of overall standards for measurements and analysis. In order to understand carbon cycling in biocrusts and the progress which has been made during the last 15 years, we offer a multi-scale approach covering different climatic regions. We also include a discussion on available measurement techniques at each scale: A micro-scale section focuses on the individual organism level, including modeling based on the combination of field and lab data. The meso-scale section addresses the CO2 exchange of a complete ecosystem or at the community level. Finally, we consider the contribution of biocrusts at a global scale, giving a general perspective of the most relevant findings regarding the role of biological soil crusts in the global terrestrial carbon cycle.

  9. Improved Efficient Routing Strategy on Scale-Free Networks

    Jiang, Zhong-Yuan; Liang, Man-Gui

    Since the betweenness of nodes in complex networks can theoretically represent the traffic load of nodes under the currently used routing strategy, we propose an improved efficient (IE) routing strategy to enhance to the network traffic capacity based on the betweenness centrality. Any node with the highest betweenness is susceptible to traffic congestion. An efficient way to improve the network traffic capacity is to redistribute the heavy traffic load from these central nodes to non-central nodes, so in this paper, we firstly give a path cost function by considering the sum of node betweenness with a tunable parameter β along the actual path. Then, by minimizing the path cost, our IE routing strategy achieved obvious improvement on the network transport efficiency. Simulations on scale-free Barabási-Albert (BA) networks confirmed the effectiveness of our strategy, when compared with the efficient routing (ER) and the shortest path (SP) routing.

  10. Top-down constraints on disturbance dynamics in the terrestrial carbon cycle: effects at global and regional scales

    Bloom, A. A.; Exbrayat, J. F.; van der Velde, I.; Peters, W.; Williams, M.

    2014-12-01

    Large uncertainties preside over terrestrial carbon flux estimates on a global scale. In particular, the strongly coupled dynamics between net ecosystem productivity and disturbance C losses are poorly constrained. To gain an improved understanding of ecosystem C dynamics from regional to global scale, we apply a Markov Chain Monte Carlo based model-data-fusion approach into the CArbon DAta-MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM). We assimilate MODIS LAI and burned area, plant-trait data, and use the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) and maps of above ground biomass as prior knowledge for initial conditions. We optimize model parameters based on (a) globally spanning observations and (b) ecological and dynamic constraints that force single parameter values and parameter inter-dependencies to be representative of real world processes. We determine the spatial and temporal dynamics of major terrestrial C fluxes and model parameter values on a global scale (GPP = 123 +/- 8 Pg C yr-1 & NEE = -1.8 +/- 2.7 Pg C yr-1). We further show that the incorporation of disturbance fluxes, and accounting for their instantaneous or delayed effect, is of critical importance in constraining global C cycle dynamics, particularly in the tropics. In a higher resolution case study centred on the Amazon Basin we show how fires not only trigger large instantaneous emissions of burned matter, but also how they are responsible for a sustained reduction of up to 50% in plant uptake following the depletion of biomass stocks. The combination of these two fire-induced effects leads to a 1 g C m-2 d-1reduction in the strength of the net terrestrial carbon sink. Through our simulations at regional and global scale, we advocate the need to assimilate disturbance metrics in global terrestrial carbon cycle models to bridge the gap between globally spanning terrestrial carbon cycle data and the full dynamics of the ecosystem C cycle. Disturbances are especially important because their quick occurrence may have

  11. Representing leaf and root physiological traits in CLM improves global carbon and nitrogen cycling predictions

    Ghimire, Bardan; Riley, William J.; Koven, Charles D.; Mu, Mingquan; Randerson, James T.

    2016-06-01

    In many ecosystems, nitrogen is the most limiting nutrient for plant growth and productivity. However, current Earth System Models (ESMs) do not mechanistically represent functional nitrogen allocation for photosynthesis or the linkage between nitrogen uptake and root traits. The current version of CLM (4.5) links nitrogen availability and plant productivity via (1) an instantaneous downregulation of potential photosynthesis rates based on soil mineral nitrogen availability, and (2) apportionment of soil nitrogen between plants and competing nitrogen consumers assumed to be proportional to their relative N demands. However, plants do not photosynthesize at potential rates and then downregulate; instead photosynthesis rates are governed by nitrogen that has been allocated to the physiological processes underpinning photosynthesis. Furthermore, the role of plant roots in nutrient acquisition has also been largely ignored in ESMs. We therefore present a new plant nitrogen model for CLM4.5 with (1) improved representations of linkages between leaf nitrogen and plant productivity based on observed relationships in a global plant trait database and (2) plant nitrogen uptake based on root-scale Michaelis-Menten uptake kinetics. Our model improvements led to a global bias reduction in GPP, LAI, and biomass of 70%, 11%, and 49%, respectively. Furthermore, water use efficiency predictions were improved conceptually, qualitatively, and in magnitude. The new model's GPP responses to nitrogen deposition, CO2 fertilization, and climate also differed from the baseline model. The mechanistic representation of leaf-level nitrogen allocation and a theoretically consistent treatment of competition with belowground consumers led to overall improvements in global carbon cycling predictions.

  12. NASA/MSFC FY91 Global Scale Atmospheric Processes Research Program Review

    Leslie, Fred W. (Editor)

    1991-01-01

    The reports presented at the annual Marshall Research Review of Earth Science and Applications are compiled. The following subject areas are covered: understanding of atmospheric processes in a variety of spatial and temporal scales; measurements of geophysical parameters; measurements on a global scale from space; the Mission to Planet Earth Program (comprised of and Earth Observation System and the scientific strategy to analyze these data); and satellite data analysis and fundamental studies of atmospheric dynamics.

  13. Towards monitoring land-cover and land-use changes at a global scale: the global land survey 2005

    Gutman, G.; Byrnes, Raymond A.; Masek, J.; Covington, S.; Justice, C.; Franks, S.; Headley, Rachel

    2008-01-01

    Land cover is a critical component of the Earth system, infl uencing land-atmosphere interactions, greenhouse gas fl uxes, ecosystem health, and availability of food, fi ber, and energy for human populations. The recent Integrated Global Observations of Land (IGOL) report calls for the generation of maps documenting global land cover at resolutions between 10m and 30m at least every fi ve years (Townshend et al., in press). Moreover, despite 35 years of Landsat observations, there has not been a unifi ed global analysis of land-cover trends nor has there been a global assessment of land-cover change at Landsat-like resolution. Since the 1990s, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have supported development of data sets based on global Landsat observations (Tucker et al., 2004). These land survey data sets, usually referred to as GeoCover ™, provide global, orthorectifi ed, typically cloud-free Landsat imagery centered on the years 1975, 1990, and 2000, with a preference for leaf-on conditions. Collectively, these data sets provided a consistent set of observations to assess land-cover changes at a decadal scale. These data are freely available via the Internet from the USGS Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) (see http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov or http://glovis.usgs.gov). This has resulted in unprecedented downloads of data, which are widely used in scientifi c studies of land-cover change (e.g., Boone et al., 2007; Harris et al., 2005; Hilbert, 2006; Huang et al. 2007; Jantz et al., 2005, Kim et al., 2007; Leimgruber, 2005; Masek et al., 2006). NASA and USGS are continuing to support land-cover change research through the development of GLS2005 - an additional global Landsat assessment circa 20051 . Going beyond the earlier initiatives, this data set will establish a baseline for monitoring changes on a 5-year interval and will pave the way toward continuous global land

  14. Global and Regional 3D Tomography for Improved Seismic Event Location and Uncertainty in Explosion Monitoring

    Downey, N.; Begnaud, M. L.; Hipp, J. R.; Ballard, S.; Young, C. S.; Encarnacao, A. V.

    2017-12-01

    The SALSA3D global 3D velocity model of the Earth was developed to improve the accuracy and precision of seismic travel time predictions for a wide suite of regional and teleseismic phases. Recently, the global SALSA3D model was updated to include additional body wave phases including mantle phases, core phases, reflections off the core-mantle boundary and underside reflections off the surface of the Earth. We show that this update improves travel time predictions and leads directly to significant improvements in the accuracy and precision of seismic event locations as compared to locations computed using standard 1D velocity models like ak135, or 2½D models like RSTT. A key feature of our inversions is that path-specific model uncertainty of travel time predictions are calculated using the full 3D model covariance matrix computed during tomography, which results in more realistic uncertainty ellipses that directly reflect tomographic data coverage. Application of this method can also be done at a regional scale: we present a velocity model with uncertainty obtained using data obtained from the University of Utah Seismograph Stations. These results show a reduction in travel-time residuals for re-located events compared with those obtained using previously published models.

  15. Improving the coastal record of tsunamis in the ESI-07 scale: Tsunami Environmental Effects Scale (TEE-16 scale)

    Lario, J.; Bardaji, T.; Silva, P.G.; Zazo, C.; Goy, J.L.

    2016-07-01

    This paper discusses possibilities to improve the Environmental Seismic Intensity Scale (ESI-07 scale), a scale based on the effects of earthquakes in the environment. This scale comprises twelve intensity degrees and considers primary and secondary effects, one of them the occurrence of tsunamis. Terminology and physical tsunami parameters corresponding to different intensity levels are often misleading and confusing. The present work proposes: i) a revised and updated catalogue of environmental and geological effects of tsunamis, gathering all the available information on Tsunami Environmental Effects (TEEs) produced by recent earthquake-tsunamis; ii) a specific intensity scale (TEE-16) for the effects of tsunamis in the natural environment at coastal areas. The proposed scale could be used in future tsunami events and, in historic and paleo-tsunami studies. The new TEE- 16 scale incorporates the size specific parameters already considered in the ESI-07 scale, such as wave height, run-up and inland extension of inundation, and a comprehensive and more accurate terminology that covers all the different intensity levels identifiable in the geological record (intensities VI-XII). The TEE-16 scale integrates the description and quantification of the potential sedimentary and erosional features (beach scours, transported boulders and classical tsunamites) derived from different tsunami events at diverse coastal environments (e.g. beaches, estuaries, rocky cliffs,). This new approach represents an innovative advance in relation to the tsunami descriptions provided by the ESI-07 scale, and allows the full application of the proposed scale in paleoseismological studies. The analysis of the revised and updated tsunami environmental damage suggests that local intensities recorded in coastal areas do not correlate well with the TEE-16 intensity (normally higher), but shows a good correlation with the earthquake magnitude (Mw). Tsunamis generated by earthquakes can then be

  16. A novel convective-scale regional reanalysis COSMO-REA2: Improving the representation of precipitation

    Sabrina Wahl

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric reanalyses are a state-of-the-art tool to generate consistent and realistic state estimates of the atmospheric system. They provide a synthesis of various heterogeneous observational systems and model simulations using a physical model together with a data assimilation scheme. Current reanalyses are mainly global, while regional reanalyses are emerging for North America, the polar region, and most recently for Europe. However, deep convection is still parameterized even in the regional reanalyses. A novel convective-scale regional reanalysis system for Central Europe (COSMO-REA2 has been developed by the Hans-Ertel Center for Weather Research – Climate Monitoring Branch. The system is based on the COSMO model and uses observational nudging for regional data assimilation. In addition to conventional observations, radar-derived rain rates are assimilated using latent heat nudging. With a horizontal grid-spacing of 2 km, the model runs without parameterization of deep moist convection. COSMO-REA2 produces horizontal wind fields that represent a realistic energy spectrum for horizontal scales above 14 km. COSMO-REA2 is currently available for seven years from 2007 to 2013.This study illustrates the improved representation of local precipitation over Germany by the convective-scale reanalysis COSMO-REA2 compared to coarser gridded European and global reanalyses. A systematic verification using rain gauge data reveals the added value of high-resolution regional atmospheric reanalyses on different time scales. On monthly to annual time scales, regional reanalyses yield better estimates of the spatial variability of precipitation patterns which can not be provided by coarser gridded global models. On hourly to daily time scales, the convective-scale reanalysis substantially improves the representation of local precipitation in two ways. On the one hand, COSMO-REA2 shows an enhanced representation of observed frequencies of local

  17. Orographic precipitation at global and regional scales: Observational uncertainty and evaluation of 25-km global model simulations

    Schiemann, Reinhard; Roberts, Charles J.; Bush, Stephanie; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Strachan, Jane; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Roberts, Malcolm J.

    2015-04-01

    Precipitation over land exhibits a high degree of variability due to the complex interaction of the precipitation generating atmospheric processes with coastlines, the heterogeneous land surface, and orography. Global general circulation models (GCMs) have traditionally had very limited ability to capture this variability on the mesoscale (here ~50-500 km) due to their low resolution. This has changed with recent investments in resolution and ensembles of multidecadal climate simulations of atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) with ~25 km grid spacing are becoming increasingly available. Here, we evaluate the mesoscale precipitation distribution in one such set of simulations obtained in the UPSCALE (UK on PrACE - weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) modelling campaign with the HadGEM-GA3 AGCM. Increased model resolution also poses new challenges to the observational datasets used to evaluate models. Global gridded data products such as those provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) are invaluable for assessing large-scale features of the precipitation distribution but may not sufficiently resolve mesoscale structures. In the absence of independent estimates, the intercomparison of different observational datasets may be the only way to get some insight into the uncertainties associated with these observations. Here, we focus on mid-latitude continental regions where observations based on higher-density gauge networks are available in addition to the global data sets: Europe/the Alps, South and East Asia, and the continental US. The ability of GCMs to represent mesoscale variability is of interest in its own right, as climate information on this scale is required by impact studies. An additional motivation for the research proposed here arises from continuing efforts to quantify the components of the global radiation budget and water cycle. Recent estimates based on radiation measurements suggest that the global mean

  18. Water dependency and water exploitation at global scale as indicators of water security

    De Roo, A. P. J.; Beck, H.; Burek, P.; Bernard, B.

    2015-12-01

    A water dependency index has been developed indicating the dependency of water consumption from upstream sources of water, sometimes across (multiple) national border. This index is calculated at global scale using the 0.1 global LISFLOOD hydrological modelling system forced by WFDEI meteorological data for the timeframe 1979-2012. The global LISFLOOD model simulates the most important hydrological processes, as well as water abstraction and consumption from various sectors, and flood routing, at daily scale, with sub-timesteps for routing and subgrid parameterization related to elevation and landuse. The model contains also options for water allocation, to allow preferences of water use for particular sectors in water scarce periods. LISFLOOD is also used for the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS), continental scale climate change impact studies on floods and droughts. The water dependency indicator is calculated on a monthly basis, and various annual and multiannual indicators are derived from it. In this study, the indicator will be compared against water security areas known from other studies. Other indicators calculated are the Water Exploitation Index (WEI+), which is a commonly use water security indicator in Europe, and freshwater resources per capita indicators at regional, national and river basin scale. Several climate scnearios are run to indicate future trends in water security.

  19. Preparing the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) for global retrospective air quality modeling

    The US EPA has a plan to leverage recent advances in meteorological modeling to develop a "Next-Generation" air quality modeling system that will allow consistent modeling of problems from global to local scale. The meteorological model of choice is the Model for Predic...

  20. Cultivating sources of competitive advantage : Opportunities for small-scale African farmers in global value chains

    Olthaar, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    Small-scale farmers in developing countries often appropriate little of the value created in global value chains. The farmers typically receive only a fraction of what consumers pay for a certain product. In the current thesis we studied which resources farmers have access to that enable them to

  1. Validity Evidence for the Interpretation and Use of Essential Elements of Communication Global Rating Scale Scores

    Schneider, Nancy Rhoda

    2015-01-01

    Purpose. Clinical communication influences health outcomes, so medical schools are charged to prepare future physicians with the skills they need to interact effectively with patients. Communication leaders at The University of New Mexico School of Medicine (UNMSOM) developed The Essential Elements of Communication-Global Rating Scale (EEC-GRS) to…

  2. Improving the distinguishable cluster results: spin-component scaling

    Kats, Daniel

    2018-06-01

    The spin-component scaling is employed in the energy evaluation to improve the distinguishable cluster approach. SCS-DCSD reaction energies reproduce reference values with a root-mean-squared deviation well below 1 kcal/mol, the interaction energies are three to five times more accurate than DCSD, and molecular systems with a large amount of static electron correlation are still described reasonably well. SCS-DCSD represents a pragmatic approach to achieve chemical accuracy with a simple method without triples, which can also be applied to multi-configurational molecular systems.

  3. Scale-Up: Improving Large Enrollment Physics Courses

    Beichner, Robert

    1999-11-01

    The Student-Centered Activities for Large Enrollment University Physics (SCALE-UP) project is working to establish a learning environment that will promote increased conceptual understanding, improved problem-solving performance, and greater student satisfaction, while still maintaining class sizes of approximately 100. We are also addressing the new ABET engineering accreditation requirements for inquiry-based learning along with communication and team-oriented skills development. Results of studies of our latest classroom design, plans for future classroom space, and the current iteration of instructional materials will be discussed.

  4. Global Exponential Stability of Delayed Cohen-Grossberg BAM Neural Networks with Impulses on Time Scales

    Yongkun Li

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the theory of calculus on time scales, the homeomorphism theory, Lyapunov functional method, and some analysis techniques, sufficient conditions are obtained for the existence, uniqueness, and global exponential stability of the equilibrium point of Cohen-Grossberg bidirectional associative memory (BAM neural networks with distributed delays and impulses on time scales. This is the first time applying the time-scale calculus theory to unify the discrete-time and continuous-time Cohen-Grossberg BAM neural network with impulses under the same framework.

  5. Improved oilfield GHG accounting using a global oilfield database

    Roberts, S.; Brandt, A. R.; Masnadi, M.

    2016-12-01

    The definition of oil is shifting in considerable ways. Conventional oil resources are declining as oil sands, heavy oils, and others emerge. Technological advances mean that these unconventional hydrocarbons are now viable resources. Meanwhile, scientific evidence is mounting that climate change is occurring. The oil sector is responsible for 35% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but the climate impacts of these new unconventional oils are not well understood. As such, the Oil Climate Index (OCI) project has been an international effort to evaluate the total life-cycle environmental GHG emissions of different oil fields globally. Over the course of the first and second phases of the project, 30 and 75 global oil fields have been investigated, respectively. The 75 fields account for about 25% of global oil production. For the third phase of the project, it is aimed to expand the OCI to contain closing to 100% of global oil production; leading to the analysis of 8000 fields. To accomplish this, a robust database system is required to handle and manipulate the data. Therefore, the integration of the data into the computer science language SQL (Structured Query Language) was performed. The implementation of SQL allows users to process the data more efficiently than would be possible by using the previously established program (Microsoft Excel). Next, a graphic user interface (gui) was implemented, in the computer science language of C#, in order to make the data interactive; enabling people to update the database without prior knowledge of SQL being necessary.

  6. Development of the Global Disability Scale (Glo.Di.S: preliminary results

    Fountoulakis Konstantinos N

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The assessment of functioning and disability is an important part of the clinical evaluation, since it measures disease burden and reflects the effectiveness of therapeutic planning and interventions. The aim of the current study was to develop such a self-report instrument on the basis of a review of the literature, and compatible with the WHO approach. Material and methods The review of the literature led to the development of the Global Disability Scale (Glo.Di.S with 25 items assessing different aspects of disability. The study sample included 728 persons from vulnerable populations (homeless, jobless, very low income, single parent families etc.; (29.12% males and 70.88% females; aged 55.96 ± 15.22 years. The protocol included also the STAI and the CES-D. The statistical analysis included factor analysis item analysis and ANCOVA. Results The factor analysis revealed the presence of 4 factors explaining 71% of total variance (Everyday functioning, Social and interpersonal functioning, Severity and Mental disability. Chronbach’s alpha for the whole scale was 0.95 and for subscales were 0.74–0.94. Discussion The results of the current study suggest that the Glo.Di.S. has the potential to serve as a reliable and valid tool for assessing functioning and disability. Further research is needed to prove that it could be useful across countries, populations and diseases, and whether it provides data that are culturally meaningful and comparable. It can be used in surveys and in clinical research settings and it can generate information of use in evaluating health needs and the effectiveness of interventions to reduce disability and improve health.

  7. Non-communicable diseases and global health governance: enhancing global processes to improve health development.

    Magnusson, Roger S

    2007-05-22

    This paper assesses progress in the development of a global framework for responding to non-communicable diseases, as reflected in the policies and initiatives of the World Health Organization (WHO), World Bank and the UN: the institutions most capable of shaping a coherent global policy. Responding to the global burden of chronic disease requires a strategic assessment of the global processes that are likely to be most effective in generating commitment to policy change at country level, and in influencing industry behaviour. WHO has adopted a legal process with tobacco (the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control), but a non-legal, advocacy-based approach with diet and physical activity (the Global Strategy on Diet, Physical Activity and Health). The paper assesses the merits of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the FCTC as distinct global processes for advancing health development, before considering what lessons might be learned for enhancing the implementation of the Global Strategy on Diet. While global partnerships, economic incentives, and international legal instruments could each contribute to a more effective global response to chronic diseases, the paper makes a special case for the development of international legal standards in select areas of diet and nutrition, as a strategy for ensuring that the health of future generations does not become dependent on corporate charity and voluntary commitments. A broader frame of reference for lifestyle-related chronic diseases is needed: one that draws together WHO's work in tobacco, nutrition and physical activity, and that envisages selective use of international legal obligations, non-binding recommendations, advocacy and policy advice as tools of choice for promoting different elements of the strategy.

  8. Non-communicable diseases and global health governance: enhancing global processes to improve health development

    Magnusson Roger S

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper assesses progress in the development of a global framework for responding to non-communicable diseases, as reflected in the policies and initiatives of the World Health Organization (WHO, World Bank and the UN: the institutions most capable of shaping a coherent global policy. Responding to the global burden of chronic disease requires a strategic assessment of the global processes that are likely to be most effective in generating commitment to policy change at country level, and in influencing industry behaviour. WHO has adopted a legal process with tobacco (the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, but a non-legal, advocacy-based approach with diet and physical activity (the Global Strategy on Diet, Physical Activity and Health. The paper assesses the merits of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs and the FCTC as distinct global processes for advancing health development, before considering what lessons might be learned for enhancing the implementation of the Global Strategy on Diet. While global partnerships, economic incentives, and international legal instruments could each contribute to a more effective global response to chronic diseases, the paper makes a special case for the development of international legal standards in select areas of diet and nutrition, as a strategy for ensuring that the health of future generations does not become dependent on corporate charity and voluntary commitments. A broader frame of reference for lifestyle-related chronic diseases is needed: one that draws together WHO's work in tobacco, nutrition and physical activity, and that envisages selective use of international legal obligations, non-binding recommendations, advocacy and policy advice as tools of choice for promoting different elements of the strategy.

  9. From continuous improvement to collaborative improvement: scope, scale, skill and social networking in collaborative improvement

    Middel, H.G.A.; Groen, Arend J.; Fisscher, O.A.M.

    2004-01-01

    More than ever, companies are challenged to improve their performance and respond quickly and accurately to changes within the market. As competitive battlefield is moving towards the level of networks of organisations, the individual firm is an inadequate entity for identifying improvements.

  10. Improved parameterization of managed grassland in a global process-based vegetation model using Bayesian statistics

    Rolinski, S.; Müller, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Bondeau, A.

    2010-12-01

    More than a quarter of the Earth’s land surface is covered by grassland, which is also the major part (~ 70 %) of the agricultural area. Most of this area is used for livestock production in different degrees of intensity. The dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL (Sitch et al., Global Change Biology, 2003; Bondeau et al., Global Change Biology, 2007) is one of few process-based model that simulates biomass production on managed grasslands at the global scale. The implementation of managed grasslands and its evaluation has received little attention so far, as reference data on grassland productivity are scarce and the definition of grassland extent and usage are highly uncertain. However, grassland productivity is related to large areas, and strongly influences global estimates of carbon and water budgets and should thus be improved. Plants are implemented in LPJmL in an aggregated form as plant functional types assuming that processes concerning carbon and water fluxes are quite similar between species of the same type. Therefore, the parameterization of a functional type is possible with parameters in a physiologically meaningful range of values. The actual choice of the parameter values from the possible and reasonable phase space should satisfy the condition of the best fit of model results and measured data. In order to improve the parameterization of managed grass we follow a combined procedure using model output and measured data of carbon and water fluxes. By comparing carbon and water fluxes simultaneously, we expect well-balanced refinements and avoid over-tuning of the model in only one direction. The comparison of annual biomass from grassland to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) per country provide an overview about the order of magnitude and the identification of deviations. The comparison of daily net primary productivity, soil respiration and water fluxes at specific sites (FluxNet Data) provides

  11. Musical Scales in Tone Sequences Improve Temporal Accuracy.

    Li, Min S; Di Luca, Massimiliano

    2018-01-01

    Predicting the time of stimulus onset is a key component in perception. Previous investigations of perceived timing have focused on the effect of stimulus properties such as rhythm and temporal irregularity, but the influence of non-temporal properties and their role in predicting stimulus timing has not been exhaustively considered. The present study aims to understand how a non-temporal pattern in a sequence of regularly timed stimuli could improve or bias the detection of temporal deviations. We presented interspersed sequences of 3, 4, 5, and 6 auditory tones where only the timing of the last stimulus could slightly deviate from isochrony. Participants reported whether the last tone was 'earlier' or 'later' relative to the expected regular timing. In two conditions, the tones composing the sequence were either organized into musical scales or they were random tones. In one experiment, all sequences ended with the same tone; in the other experiment, each sequence ended with a different tone. Results indicate higher discriminability of anisochrony with musical scales and with longer sequences, irrespective of the knowledge of the final tone. Such an outcome suggests that the predictability of non-temporal properties, as enabled by the musical scale pattern, can be a factor in determining the sensitivity of time judgments.

  12. The benefits of global scaling in multi-criteria decision analysis

    Jamie P. Monat

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available When there are multiple competing objectives in a decision-making process, Multi-Attribute Choice scoring models are excellent tools, permitting the incorporation of both subjective and objective attributes. However, their accuracy depends upon the subjective techniques used to construct the attribute scales and their concomitant weights. Conventional techniques using local scales tend to overemphasize small differences in attribute measures, which may yield erroneous conclusions. The Range Sensitivity Principle (RSP is often invoked to adjust attribute weights when local scales are used. In practice, however, decision makers often do not follow the prescriptions of the Range Sensitivity Principle and under-adjust the weights, resulting in potentially poor decisions. Examples are discussed as is a proposed solution: the use of global scales instead of local scales.

  13. Modification of the Clinical Global Impressions (CGI) Scale for use in bipolar illness (BP): the CGI-BP.

    Spearing, M K; Post, R M; Leverich, G S; Brandt, D; Nolen, W

    1997-12-05

    The Clinical Global Impressions Scale (CGI) was modified specifically for use in assessing global illness severity and change in patients with bipolar disorder. Criticisms of the original CGI were addressed by correcting inconsistencies in scaling, identifying time frames for comparison, clarifying definitions of illness severity and change, and separating out assessment of treatment side effects from illness improvement during treatment. A Detailed User's Guide was developed to train clinicians in the use of the new CGI-Bipolar Version (CGI-BP) for rating severity of manic and depressive episodes and the degree of change from the immediately preceding phase and from the worst phase of illness. The revised scale and manual provide a focused set of instructions to facilitate the reliability of these ratings of mania, depression, and overall bipolar illness during treatment of an acute episode or in longer-term illness prophylaxis. Interrater reliability of the scale was demonstrated in preliminary analyses. Thus, the modified CGI-BP is anticipated to be more useful than the original CGI in studies of bipolar disorder.

  14. Improving scale invariant feature transform-based descriptors with shape-color alliance robust feature

    Wang, Rui; Zhu, Zhengdan; Zhang, Liang

    2015-05-01

    Constructing appropriate descriptors for interest points in image matching is a critical aspect task in computer vision and pattern recognition. A method as an extension of the scale invariant feature transform (SIFT) descriptor called shape-color alliance robust feature (SCARF) descriptor is presented. To address the problem that SIFT is designed mainly for gray images and lack of global information for feature points, the proposed approach improves the SIFT descriptor by means of a concentric-rings model, as well as integrating the color invariant space and shape context with SIFT to construct the SCARF descriptor. The SCARF method developed is more robust than the conventional SIFT with respect to not only the color and photometrical variations but also the measuring similarity as a global variation between two shapes. A comparative evaluation of different descriptors is carried out showing that the SCARF approach provides better results than the other four state-of-the-art related methods.

  15. Global surgery: current evidence for improving surgical care.

    Fuller, Jennifer C; Shaye, David A

    2017-08-01

    The field of global surgery is undergoing rapid transformation, owing to several recent prominent reports positioning it as a cost-effective means of relieving global disease burden. The purpose of this article is to review the recent advances in the field of global surgery. Efforts to grow the global surgical workforce and procedural capacity have focused on innovative methods to increase surgeon training, enhance international collaboration, leverage technology, optimize existing health systems, and safely implement task-sharing. Computer modeling offers a novel means of informing policy to optimize timely access to care, equitably promote health and financial protection, and efficiently grow infrastructure. Tools and checklists have recently been developed to enhance data collection and ensure methodologically rigorous publications to inform planning, benchmark surgical systems, promote accurate modeling, track key health indicators, and promote safety. Creation of institutional partnerships and trainee exchanges can enrich training, stimulate commitment to humanitarian work, and promote the equal exchange of ideas and expertise. The recent body of work creates a strong foundation upon which work toward the goal of universal access to safe, affordable surgical care can be built; however, further collection and analysis of country-specific data is necessary for accurate modeling and outcomes research into the efficacy of policies such as task-sharing is greatly needed.

  16. Improving Internet Governance: Support to the Global Commission ...

    This project provides continued support to the Global Commission on Internet Governance (GCIG) to engage the developing world in important Internet governance discussions. The funds will allow the GCIG to conduct research on the Internet-related dimensions of public policy to inform recommendations for the future of ...

  17. Improving Global Flood Forecasting using Satellite Detected Flood Extent

    Revilla Romero, B.

    2016-01-01

    Flooding is a natural global phenomenon but in many cases is exacerbated by human activity. Although flooding generally affects humans in a negative way, bringing death, suffering, and economic impacts, it also has potentially beneficial effects. Early flood warning and forecasting systems, as well

  18. Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity

    Ward, Philip J; Jongman, Brenden; Weiland, Frederiek Sperna; Winsemius, Hessel C; Bouwman, Arno; Ligtvoet, Willem; Van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc F P

    2013-01-01

    Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global flood risk maps, based on numerous flood return-periods. Validation results indicate that the model simulates interannual fluctuations in flood impacts well. The cascade involves: hydrological and hydraulic modelling; extreme value statistics; inundation modelling; flood impact modelling; and estimating annual expected impacts. The initial results estimate global impacts for several indicators, for example annual expected exposed population (169 million); and annual expected exposed GDP ($1383 billion). These results are relatively insensitive to the extreme value distribution employed to estimate low frequency flood volumes. However, they are extremely sensitive to the assumed flood protection standard; developing a database of such standards should be a research priority. Also, results are sensitive to the use of two different climate forcing datasets. The impact model can easily accommodate new, user-defined, impact indicators. We envisage several applications, for example: identifying risk hotspots; calculating macro-scale risk for the insurance industry and large companies; and assessing potential benefits (and costs) of adaptation measures. (letter)

  19. Global assessment of the economics of land degradation and improvement

    Nkonya, Ephraim

    2017-04-01

    Land degradation—defined by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment report as the long-term loss of ecosystems services—is a global problem, negatively affecting the livelihoods and food security of billions of people. Intensifying efforts, mobilizing more investments and strengthening the policy commitment for addressing land degradation at the global level needs to be supported by a careful evaluation of the costs and benefits of action versus costs of inaction against land degradation. Consistent with the definition of land degradation, we adopt the Total Economic Value (TEV) approach to determine the costs of land degradation and use remote sensing data and global statistical databases in our analysis. The results show that the annual costs of land degradation due to land use and land cover change (LUCC) are about US231 billion per year or about 0.41 % of the global GDP of US56.49 trillion in 2007. Contrary to past global land degradation assessment studies, land degradation is severe in both tropical and temperate countries. However, the losses from LUCC are especially high in Sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for 26 % of the total global costs of land degradation due to LUCC. However, the local tangible losses (mainly provisioning services) account only for 46 % of the total cost of land degradation and the rest of the cost is due to the losses of ecosystem services (ES) accruable largely to beneficiaries other than the local land users. These external ES losses include carbon sequestration, biodiversity, genetic information and cultural services. This implies that the global community bears the largest cost of land degradation, which suggests that efforts to address land degradation should be done bearing in mind that the global community,as a whole, incurs larger losses than the local communities experiencing land degradation. The cost of soil fertility mining due to using land degrading management practices on maize, rice and wheat is estimated to be

  20. Modelling Groundwater Depletion at Regional and Global Scales: Present State and Future Prospects.

    Wada, Yoshihide

    2015-01-01

    Except for frozen water in ice and glaciers, groundwater is the world's largest distributed store of freshwater and has strategic importance to global food and water security. In this paper, the most recent advances quantifying groundwater depletion (GWD) are comprehensively reviewed. This paper critically evaluates the recently advanced modeling approaches estimating GWD at regional and global scales, and the evidence of feedbacks to the Earth system including sea-level rise associated with GWD. Finally, critical challenges and opportunities in the use of groundwater are identified for the adaption to growing food demand and uncertain climate.

  1. GloFAS-Seasonal: Operational Seasonal Ensemble River Flow Forecasts at the Global Scale

    Emerton, Rebecca; Zsoter, Ervin; Smith, Paul; Salamon, Peter

    2017-04-01

    Seasonal hydrological forecasting has potential benefits for many sectors, including agriculture, water resources management and humanitarian aid. At present, no global scale seasonal hydrological forecasting system exists operationally; although smaller scale systems have begun to emerge around the globe over the past decade, a system providing consistent global scale seasonal forecasts would be of great benefit in regions where no other forecasting system exists, and to organisations operating at the global scale, such as disaster relief. We present here a new operational global ensemble seasonal hydrological forecast, currently under development at ECMWF as part of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The proposed system, which builds upon the current version of GloFAS, takes the long-range forecasts from the ECMWF System4 ensemble seasonal forecast system (which incorporates the HTESSEL land surface scheme) and uses this runoff as input to the Lisflood routing model, producing a seasonal river flow forecast out to 4 months lead time, for the global river network. The seasonal forecasts will be evaluated using the global river discharge reanalysis, and observations where available, to determine the potential value of the forecasts across the globe. The seasonal forecasts will be presented as a new layer in the GloFAS interface, which will provide a global map of river catchments, indicating whether the catchment-averaged discharge forecast is showing abnormally high or low flows during the 4-month lead time. Each catchment will display the corresponding forecast as an ensemble hydrograph of the weekly-averaged discharge forecast out to 4 months, with percentile thresholds shown for comparison with the discharge climatology. The forecast visualisation is based on a combination of the current medium-range GloFAS forecasts and the operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal outlook, and aims to effectively communicate the nature of a seasonal

  2. Development and validation of a new global well-being outcomes rating scale for integrative medicine research

    Bell Iris R

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Researchers are finding limitations of currently available disease-focused questionnaire tools for outcome studies in complementary and alternative medicine/integrative medicine (CAM/IM. Methods Three substudies investigated the new one-item visual analogue Arizona Integrative Outcomes Scale (AIOS, which assesses self-rated global sense of spiritual, social, mental, emotional, and physical well-being over the past 24 hours and the past month. The first study tested the scale's ability to discriminate unhealthy individuals (n = 50 from healthy individuals (n = 50 in a rehabilitation outpatient clinic sample. The second study examined the concurrent validity of the AIOS by comparing ratings of global well-being to degree of psychological distress as measured by the Brief Symptom Inventory (BSI in undergraduate college students (N = 458. The third study evaluated the relationships between the AIOS and positively- and negatively-valenced tools (Positive and Negative Affect Scale and the Positive States of Mind Scale in a different sample of undergraduate students (N = 62. Results Substudy (i Rehabilitation patients scored significantly lower than the healthy controls on both forms of the AIOS and a current global health rating. The AIOS 24-hours correlated moderately and significantly with global health (patients r = 0.50; controls r = 0.45. AIOS 1-month correlations with global health were stronger within the controls (patients r = 0.36; controls r = 0.50. Controls (r = 0.64 had a higher correlation between the AIOS 24-hour and 1-month forms than did the patients (r = 0.33, which is consistent with the presumptive improvement in the patients' condition over the previous 30 days in rehabilitation. Substudy (ii In undergraduate students, AIOS scores were inversely related to distress ratings, as measured by the global severity index on the BSI (rAIOS24h = -0.42, rAIOS1month = -0.40. Substudy (iii AIOS scores were significantly

  3. Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming

    Lobell, David B; Field, Christopher B

    2007-01-01

    Changes in the global production of major crops are important drivers of food prices, food security and land use decisions. Average global yields for these commodities are determined by the performance of crops in millions of fields distributed across a range of management, soil and climate regimes. Despite the complexity of global food supply, here we show that simple measures of growing season temperatures and precipitation-spatial averages based on the locations of each crop-explain ∼30% or more of year-to-year variations in global average yields for the world's six most widely grown crops. For wheat, maize and barley, there is a clearly negative response of global yields to increased temperatures. Based on these sensitivities and observed climate trends, we estimate that warming since 1981 has resulted in annual combined losses of these three crops representing roughly 40 Mt or $5 billion per year, as of 2002. While these impacts are small relative to the technological yield gains over the same period, the results demonstrate already occurring negative impacts of climate trends on crop yields at the global scale

  4. An improved kilogram-scale preparation of atorvastatin calcium.

    Novozhilov, Yuri V; Dorogov, Mikhail V; Blumina, Maria V; Smirnov, Alexey V; Krasavin, Mikhail

    2015-01-01

    If literature protocols are followed, conversion of an advanced ketal ester intermediate (available in kilogram quantities via a published Paal-Knorr synthesis) to cholesterol-lowering drug atorvastatin calcium is hampered by several process issues, particularly at the final stage where the hemi-calcium salt is obtained. We developed a high-yielding synthesis of atorvastatin calcium salt on 7 kg scale that affords >99.5% product purities by introducing the following key improvements: i. isolating the pure product of the ketal deprotection step as crystalline solid, and ii. using a convenient ethyl acetate extraction procedure to isolate the pure atorvastatin calcium at the ester hydrolysis and counter-ion exchange step. The convenient and operationally simple conversion of an advanced intermediate of atorvastatin to the clinically used hemi-calcium salt form of the drug that is superior to the methods obtainable from the literature is now available to facilitate the production of atorvastatin calcium on industrial scale. Graphical abstractStepwise ketal and tert-butyl ester group hydrolysis and a modified work-up protocol lead to a more convenient preparation of API-grade atorvastatin calcium.

  5. On Foundation Improvement By Sand Replacement | Abam | Global ...

    This paper describes a simple foundation improvement method involving the replacement of poor foundation bearing soils with sand and the resultant improvement in bearing capacity and the minimization of settlement at the site of a large storage tank. Minimum thickness of sand replacement for various foundation loads ...

  6. How Does Software Process Improvement Address Global Software Engineering?

    Kuhrmann, Marco; Diebold, Philipp; Münch, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    For decades, Software Process Improvement (SPI) programs have been implemented, inter alia, to improve quality and speed of software development. To set up, guide, and carry out SPI projects, and to measure SPI state, impact, and success, a multitude of different SPI approaches and considerable...

  7. Global-scale assessment and combination of SMAP with ASCAT (Active) and AMSR2 (Passive) soil moisture products

    Global-scale surface soil moisture (SSM) products retrieved from active and passive microwave remote sensing provide an effective method for monitoring near-real-time SSM content with nearly daily temporal resolution. In the present study, we first inter-compared global-scale error patterns and comb...

  8. Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

    Pacyna, Jozef M.; Travnikov, Oleg; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pirrone, Nicola; Munthe, John; Kindbom, Karin

    2016-10-01

    An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013) and future (2035) air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal) for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions), including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year-1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %), followed by biomass burning (9 %). A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT) have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has proved to be a very important

  9. Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

    J. M. Pacyna

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013 and future (2035 air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions, including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year−1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %, followed by biomass burning (9 %. A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has

  10. Global scaling analysis for the pebble bed advanced high temperature reactor

    Blandford, E.D.; Peterson, P.F.

    2009-01-01

    Scaled Integral Effects Test (IET) facilities play a critical role in the design certification process of innovative reactor designs. Best-estimate system analysis codes, which minimize deliberate conservatism, require confirmatory data during the validation process to ensure an acceptable level of accuracy as defined by the regulator. The modular Pebble Bed Advanced High Temperature Reactor (PB-AHTR), with a nominal power output of 900 MWth, is the most recent UC Berkeley design for a liquid fluoride salt cooled, solid fuel reactor. The PB-AHTR takes advantage of technologies developed for gas-cooled high temperature thermal and fast reactors, sodium fast reactors, and molten salt reactors. In this paper, non-dimensional scaling groups and similarity criteria are presented at the global system level for a loss of forced circulation transient, where single-phase natural circulation is the primary mechanism for decay heat removal following a primary pump trip. Due to very large margin to fuel damage temperatures, the peak metal temperature of primary-loop components was identified as the key safety parameter of interest. Fractional Scaling Analysis (FSA) methods were used to quantify the intensity of each transfer process during the transient and subsequently rank them by their relative importance while identifying key sources of distortion between the prototype and model. The results show that the development of a scaling hierarchy at the global system level informs the bottom-up scaling analysis. (author)

  11. Scale and Scope Economies in the Global Advertising and Marketing Services Business

    Alvin J. Silk; Ernst R. Berndt

    2003-01-01

    We assess size and scope-related economies in the global advertising and marketing services business. A translog cost function is employed wherein a firm's costs vary according to its scale and two dimensions of the scope of its operations. Parameters of the model are estimated via three stage least squares using annual data for 1989-2001 for an unbalanced panel consisting of the eight largest firms in this industry. A firm's total variable costs are affected by its scale, scope (mix of servi...

  12. Fractal Markets Hypothesis and the Global Financial Crisis: Scaling, Investment Horizons and Liquidity

    Krištoufek, Ladislav

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 6 (2012), 1250065-1-1250065-13 ISSN 0219-5259 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GA UK(CZ) 118310; SVV(CZ) 265 504 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : fractal markets hypothesis * scaling * fractality * investment horizons * efficient markets hypothesis Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.647, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/E/kristoufek-fractal markets hypothesis and the global financial crisis scaling investment horizons and liquidity.pdf

  13. Improving global paleogeography since the late Paleozoic using paleobiology

    W. Cao

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Paleogeographic reconstructions are important to understand Earth's tectonic evolution, past eustatic and regional sea level change, paleoclimate and ocean circulation, deep Earth resources and to constrain and interpret the dynamic topography predicted by mantle convection models. Global paleogeographic maps have been compiled and published, but they are generally presented as static maps with varying map projections, different time intervals represented by the maps and different plate motion models that underlie the paleogeographic reconstructions. This makes it difficult to convert the maps into a digital form and link them to alternative digital plate tectonic reconstructions. To address this limitation, we develop a workflow to restore global paleogeographic maps to their present-day coordinates and enable them to be linked to a different tectonic reconstruction. We use marine fossil collections from the Paleobiology Database to identify inconsistencies between their indicative paleoenvironments and published paleogeographic maps, and revise the locations of inferred paleo-coastlines that represent the estimated maximum transgression surfaces by resolving these inconsistencies. As a result, the consistency ratio between the paleogeography and the paleoenvironments indicated by the marine fossil collections is increased from an average of 75 % to nearly full consistency (100 %. The paleogeography in the main regions of North America, South America, Europe and Africa is significantly revised, especially in the Late Carboniferous, Middle Permian, Triassic, Jurassic, Late Cretaceous and most of the Cenozoic. The global flooded continental areas since the Early Devonian calculated from the revised paleogeography in this study are generally consistent with results derived from other paleoenvironment and paleo-lithofacies data and with the strontium isotope record in marine carbonates. We also estimate the terrestrial areal change over time

  14. Traveling-wave reactors: A truly sustainable and full-scale resource for global energy needs

    Ellis, T.; Petroski, R.; Hejzlar, P.; Zimmerman, G.; McAlees, D.; Whitmer, C.; Touran, N.; Hejzlar, J.; Weave, K.; Walter, J. C.; McWhirter, J.; Ahlfeld, C.; Burke, T.; Odedra, A.; Hyde, R.; Gilleland, J.; Ishikawa, Y.; Wood, L.; Myhrvold, N.; Gates Iii, W. H.

    2010-01-01

    Rising environmental and economic concerns have signaled a desire to reduce dependence on hydrocarbon fuels. These concerns have brought the world to an inflection point and decisions made today will dictate what the global energy landscape will look like for the next half century or more. An optimal energy technology for the future must meet stricter standards than in the past; in addition to being economically attractive, it now must also be environmentally benign, sustainable and scalable to global use. For stationary energy, only one existing resource comes close to fitting all of the societal requirements for an optimal energy source: nuclear energy. Its demonstrated economic performance, power density, and emissions-free benefits significantly elevate nuclear electricity generation above other energy sources. However, the current nuclear fuel cycle has some attributes that make it challenging to expand on a global scale. Traveling-wave reactor (TWR) technology, being developed by TerraPower, LLC, represents a potential solution to these limitations by offering a nuclear energy resource which is truly sustainable at full global scale for the indefinite future and is deployable in the near-term. TWRs are capable of offering a ∼40-fold gain in fuel utilization efficiency compared to conventional light-water reactors burning enriched fuel. Such high fuel efficiency, combined with an ability to use uranium recovered from river water or sea-water (which has been recently demonstrated to be technically and economically feasible) suggests that enough fuel is readily available for TWRs to generate electricity for 10 billion people at United States per capita levels for million-year time-scales. Interestingly, the Earth's rivers carry into the ocean a flux of uranium several times greater than that required to replace the implied rate-of-consumption, so that the Earth's slowly-eroding crust will provide a readily-accessible flow of uranium sufficient for all of

  15. Multi-scale spatial modeling of human exposure from local sources to global intake

    Wannaz, Cedric; Fantke, Peter; Jolliet, Olivier

    2018-01-01

    Exposure studies, used in human health risk and impact assessments of chemicals are largely performed locally or regionally. It is usually not known how global impacts resulting from exposure to point source emissions compare to local impacts. To address this problem, we introduce Pangea......, an innovative multi-scale, spatial multimedia fate and exposure assessment model. We study local to global population exposure associated with emissions from 126 point sources matching locations of waste-to-energy plants across France. Results for three chemicals with distinct physicochemical properties...... occur within a 100 km radius from the source. This suggests that, by neglecting distant low-level exposure, local assessments might only account for fractions of global cumulative intakes. We also study ~10,000 emission locations covering France more densely to determine per chemical and exposure route...

  16. How important is biological ice nucleation in clouds on a global scale?

    Hoose, C; Kristjansson, J E; Burrows, S M

    2010-01-01

    The high ice nucleating ability of some biological particles has led to speculations about living and dead organisms being involved in cloud ice and precipitation formation, exerting a possibly significant influence on weather and climate. In the present study, the role of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAPs) as heterogeneous ice nuclei is investigated with a global model. Emission parametrizations for bacteria, fungal spores and pollen based on recent literature are introduced, as well as an immersion freezing parametrization based on classical nucleation theory and laboratory measurements. The simulated contribution of PBAPs to the global average ice nucleation rate is only 10 -5 %, with an uppermost estimate of 0.6%. At the same time, observed PBAP concentrations in air and biological ice nucleus concentrations in snow are reasonably well captured by the model. This implies that 'bioprecipitation' processes (snow and rain initiated by PBAPs) are of minor importance on the global scale.

  17. Bioremediation at a global scale: from the test tube to planet Earth

    de Lorenzo, V?ctor; Marli?re, Philippe; Sol?, Ricard

    2016-01-01

    Summary Planet Earth's biosphere has evolved over billions of years as a balanced bio?geological system ultimately sustained by sunpower and the large?scale cycling of elements largely run by the global environmental microbiome. Humans have been part of this picture for much of their existence. But the industrial revolution started in the XIX century and the subsequent advances in medicine, chemistry, agriculture and communications have impacted such balances to an unprecedented degree ? and ...

  18. Active listening in medical consultations: development of the Active Listening Observation Scale (ALOS-global).

    Fassaert, T.; Dulmen, S. van; Schellevis, F.; Bensing, J.

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Active listening is a prerequisite for a successful healthcare encounter, bearing potential therapeutic value especially in clinical situations that require no specific medical intervention. Although generally acknowledged as such, active listening has not been studied in depth. This paper describes the development of the Active Listening Observation Scale (ALOS-global), an observation instrument measuring active listening and its validation in a sample of general practice consulta...

  19. A new approach to inventorying bodies of water, from local to global scale

    Bartout, Pascal

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Having reliable estimates of the number of water bodies on different geographical scales is of great importance to better understand biogeochemical cycles and to tackle the social issues related to the economic and cultural use of water bodies. However, limnological research suffers from a lack of reliable inventories; the available scientific references are predominately based on water bodies of natural origin, large in size and preferentially located in previously glaciated areas. Artificial, small and randomly distributed water bodies, especially ponds, are usually not inventoried. Following Wetzel’s theory (1990, some authors included them in global inventories by using remote sensing or mathematical extrapolation, but fieldwork on the ground has been done on a very limited amount of territory. These studies have resulted in an explosive increase in the estimated number of water bodies, going from 8.44 million lakes (Meybeck 1995 to 3.5 billion water bodies (Downing 2010. These numbers raise several questions, especially about the methodology used for counting small-sized water bodies and the methodological treatment of spatial variables. In this study, we use inventories of water bodies for Sweden, Finland, Estonia and France to show incoherencies generated by the “global to local” approach. We demonstrate that one universal relationship does not suffice for generating the regional or global inventories of water bodies because local conditions vary greatly from one region to another and cannot be offset adequately by each other. The current paradigm for global estimates of water bodies in limnology, which is based on one representative model applied to different territories, does not produce sufficiently exact global inventories. The step-wise progression from the local to the global scale requires the development of many regional equations based on fieldwork; a specific equation that adequately reflects the actual relationship

  20. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

    Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

    2017-01-01

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff. PMID:28115693

  1. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.

    Neelin, J David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N; Bernstein, Diana N

    2017-02-07

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

  2. Water balance creates a threshold in soil pH at the global scale

    Slessarev, E. W.; Lin, Y.; Bingham, N. L.; Johnson, J. E.; Dai, Y.; Schimel, J. P.; Chadwick, O. A.

    2016-12-01

    Soil pH regulates the capacity of soils to store and supply nutrients, and thus contributes substantially to controlling productivity in terrestrial ecosystems. However, soil pH is not an independent regulator of soil fertility—rather, it is ultimately controlled by environmental forcing. In particular, small changes in water balance cause a steep transition from alkaline to acid soils across natural climate gradients. Although the processes governing this threshold in soil pH are well understood, the threshold has not been quantified at the global scale, where the influence of climate may be confounded by the effects of topography and mineralogy. Here we evaluate the global relationship between water balance and soil pH by extracting a spatially random sample (n = 20,000) from an extensive compilation of 60,291 soil pH measurements. We show that there is an abrupt transition from alkaline to acid soil pH that occurs at the point where mean annual precipitation begins to exceed mean annual potential evapotranspiration. We evaluate deviations from this global pattern, showing that they may result from seasonality, climate history, erosion and mineralogy. These results demonstrate that climate creates a nonlinear pattern in soil solution chemistry at the global scale; they also reveal conditions under which soils maintain pH out of equilibrium with modern climate.

  3. Value of river discharge data for global-scale hydrological modeling

    M. Hunger

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the value of observed river discharge data for global-scale hydrological modeling of a number of flow characteristics that are e.g. required for assessing water resources, flood risk and habitat alteration of aquatic ecosystems. An improved version of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM was tuned against measured discharge using either the 724-station dataset (V1 against which former model versions were tuned or an extended dataset (V2 of 1235 stations. WGHM is tuned by adjusting one model parameter (γ that affects runoff generation from land areas in order to fit simulated and observed long-term average discharge at tuning stations. In basins where γ does not suffice to tune the model, two correction factors are applied successively: the areal correction factor corrects local runoff in a basin and the station correction factor adjusts discharge directly the gauge. Using station correction is unfavorable, as it makes discharge discontinuous at the gauge and inconsistent with runoff in the upstream basin. The study results are as follows. (1 Comparing V2 to V1, the global land area covered by tuning basins increases by 5% and the area where the model can be tuned by only adjusting γ increases by 8%. However, the area where a station correction factor (and not only an areal correction factor has to be applied more than doubles. (2 The value of additional discharge information for representing the spatial distribution of long-term average discharge (and thus renewable water resources with WGHM is high, particularly for river basins outside of the V1 tuning area and in regions where the refined dataset provides a significant subdivision of formerly extended tuning basins (average V2 basin size less than half the V1 basin size. If the additional discharge information were not used for tuning, simulated long-term average discharge would differ from the observed one by a factor of, on average, 1.8 in the formerly

  4. Improving the governance of cyberspace in the Global South | IDRC ...

    2018-04-13

    Apr 13, 2018 ... Photo: Geralt / Pixabay Digital tools are improving people's ability to innovate, ... and share online, but they also enable broad surveillance, tracking, ... Given what we know about the importance of sustained capacity, IDRC ...

  5. Large-Scale Variation in Forest Carbon Turnover Rate and its Relation to Climate - Remote Sensing vs. Global Vegetation Models

    Carvalhais, N.; Thurner, M.; Beer, C.; Forkel, M.; Rademacher, T. T.; Santoro, M.; Tum, M.; Schmullius, C.

    2015-12-01

    While vegetation productivity is known to be strongly correlated to climate, there is a need for an improved understanding of the underlying processes of vegetation carbon turnover and their importance at a global scale. This shortcoming has been due to the lack of spatially extensive information on vegetation carbon stocks, which we recently have been able to overcome by a biomass dataset covering northern boreal and temperate forests originating from radar remote sensing. Based on state-of-the-art products on biomass and NPP, we are for the first time able to study the relation between carbon turnover rate and a set of climate indices in northern boreal and temperate forests. The implementation of climate-related mortality processes, for instance drought, fire, frost or insect effects, is often lacking or insufficient in current global vegetation models. In contrast to our observation-based findings, investigated models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), including HYBRID4, JeDi, JULES, LPJml, ORCHIDEE, SDGVM, and VISIT, are able to reproduce spatial climate - turnover rate relationships only to a limited extent. While most of the models compare relatively well to observation-based NPP, simulated vegetation carbon stocks are severely biased compared to our biomass dataset. Current limitations lead to considerable uncertainties in the estimated vegetation carbon turnover, contributing substantially to the forest feedback to climate change. Our results are the basis for improving mortality concepts in global vegetation models and estimating their impact on the land carbon balance.

  6. The Children's Global Assessment Scale (CGAS) and Global Assessment of Psychosocial Disability (GAPD) in clinical practice--substance and reliability as judged by intraclass correlations

    Dyrborg, J; Larsen, F W; Nielsen, S

    2000-01-01

    Studies on the inter-rater reliability on the Children's Global Assessment Scale (CGAS) and the Global Assessment of Psychosocial Disability (GAPD) involving different subgroups of 145 outpatients from 4 to 16 years of age showed fair to substantial intraclass correlations of 0.59 to 0.90. Raters...

  7. Spatiotemporal models of global soil organic carbon stock to support land degradation assessments at regional and global scales: limitations, challenges and opportunities

    Hengl, Tomislav; Heuvelink, Gerard; Sanderman, Jonathan; MacMillan, Robert

    2017-04-01

    There is an increasing interest in fitting and applying spatiotemporal models that can be used to assess and monitor soil organic carbon stocks (SOCS), for example, in support of the '4 pourmille' initiative aiming at soil carbon sequestration towards climate change adaptation and mitigation and UN's Land Degradation Neutrality indicators and similar degradation assessment projects at regional and global scales. The land cover mapping community has already produced several spatiotemporal data sets with global coverage and at relatively fine resolution e.g. USGS MODIS land cover annual maps for period 2000-2014; European Space Agency land cover maps at 300 m resolution for the year 2000, 2005 and 2010; Chinese GlobeLand30 dataset available for years 2000 and 2010; Columbia University's WRI GlobalForestWatch with deforestation maps at 30 m resolution for the period 2000-2016 (Hansen et al. 2013). These data sets can be used for land degradation assessment and scenario testing at global and regional scales (Wei et al 2014). Currently, however, no compatible global spatiotemporal data sets exist on status of soil quality and/or soil health (Powlson et al. 2013). This paper describes an initial effort to devise and evaluate a procedure for mapping spatio-temporal changes in SOC stocks using a complete stack of soil forming factors (climate, relief, land cover, land use, lithology and living organisms) represented mainly through remote sensing based time series of Earth images. For model building we used some 75,000 geo-referenced soil profiles and a stacks space-time covariates (land cover, land use, biomass, climate) at two standard resolutions: (1) 10 km resolution with data available for period 1920-2014 and (2) 1000 m resolution with data available for period 2000-2014. The initial results show that, although it is technically feasible to produce space time estimates of SOCS that demonstrate the procedure, the estimates are relatively uncertain (<45% of variation

  8. Introduction to the Special Issue: Across the horizon: scale effects in global change research.

    Gornish, Elise S; Leuzinger, Sebastian

    2015-01-01

    As a result of the increasing speed and magnitude in which habitats worldwide are experiencing environmental change, making accurate predictions of the effects of global change on ecosystems and the organisms that inhabit them have become an important goal for ecologists. Experimental and modelling approaches aimed at understanding the linkages between factors of global change and biotic responses have become numerous and increasingly complex in order to adequately capture the multifarious dynamics associated with these relationships. However, constrained by resources, experiments are often conducted at small spatiotemporal scales (e.g. looking at a plot of a few square metres over a few years) and at low organizational levels (looking at organisms rather than ecosystems) in spite of both theoretical and experimental work that suggests ecological dynamics across scales can be dissimilar. This phenomenon has been hypothesized to occur because the mechanisms that drive dynamics across scales differ. A good example is the effect of elevated CO2 on transpiration. While at the leaf level, transpiration can be reduced, at the stand level, transpiration can increase because leaf area per unit ground area increases. The reported net effect is then highly dependent on the spatiotemporal scale. This special issue considers the biological relevancy inherent in the patterns associated with the magnitude and type of response to changing environmental conditions, across scales. This collection of papers attempts to provide a comprehensive treatment of this phenomenon in order to help develop an understanding of the extent of, and mechanisms involved with, ecological response to global change. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

  9. Call to action: A new path for improving diabetes care for Indigenous peoples, a global review.

    Harris, Stewart B; Tompkins, Jordan W; TeHiwi, Braden

    2017-01-01

    Diabetes has reached epidemic proportions in Indigenous populations around the globe, and there is an urgent need to improve the health and health equity of Indigenous peoples with diabetes through timely and appropriate diabetes prevention and management strategies. This review describes the evolution of the diabetes epidemic in Indigenous populations and associated risk factors, highlighting gestational diabetes and intergenerational risk, lifestyle risk factors and social determinants as having particular importance and impact on Indigenous peoples. This review further describes the impact of chronic disease and diabetes on Indigenous peoples and communities, specifically diabetes-related comorbidities and complications. This review provides continued evidence that dramatic changes are necessary to reduce diabetes-related inequities in Indigenous populations, with a call to action to support programmatic primary healthcare transformation capable of empowering Indigenous peoples and communities and improving chronic disease prevention and management. Promising strategies for transforming health services and care for Indigenous peoples include quality improvement initiatives, facilitating diabetes and chronic disease registry and surveillance systems to identify care gaps, and prioritizing evaluation to build the evidence-base necessary to guide future health policy and planning locally and on a global scale. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Active listening in medical consultations: development of the Active Listening Observation Scale (ALOS-global).

    Fassaert, Thijs; van Dulmen, Sandra; Schellevis, François; Bensing, Jozien

    2007-11-01

    Active listening is a prerequisite for a successful healthcare encounter, bearing potential therapeutic value especially in clinical situations that require no specific medical intervention. Although generally acknowledged as such, active listening has not been studied in depth. This paper describes the development of the Active Listening Observation Scale (ALOS-global), an observation instrument measuring active listening and its validation in a sample of general practice consultations for minor ailments. Five hundred and twenty-four videotaped general practice consultations involving minor ailments were observed with the ALOS-global. Hypotheses were tested to determine validity, incorporating patients' perception of GPs' affective performance, GPs' verbal attention, patients' self-reported anxiety level and gender differences. The final 7-item ALOS-global had acceptable inter- and intra-observer agreement. Factor analysis revealed one homogeneous dimension. The scalescore was positively related to verbal attention measured by RIAS, to patients' perception of GPs' performance and to their pre-visit anxiety level. Female GPs received higher active listening scores. The results of this study are promising concerning the psychometric properties of the ALOS-global. More research is needed to confirm these preliminary findings. After establishing how active listening differentiates between health professionals, the ALOS-global may become a valuable tool in feedback and training aimed at increasing listening skills.

  11. Improve global competitiveness with supply-chain management

    Krenek, M.R.

    1997-01-01

    Over the past 10 to 15 years, petrochemical companies have aggressively cut costs due to increased international competition. Unfortunately, these conditions will remain part of the future business environment. To remain international as players, leading chemical companies must develop new methods to keep a competitive edge. One option is to use global supply-chain management. With this strategy, organizations can optimize costs in an integrated fashion along the entire manufacturing and delivery system worldwide. This is a sharp contrast to previously used compartmentalized cost cutting by departments such as transportation, manufacturing, etc. Rethinking the supply-chain management requires devising a new order on how all manufacturing process costs contribute to the total product costs. Manufacturers can no longer look at operation segments as separate puzzle pieces. They must devise a framework that integrates all functions of production and distribution to be the lowest-cost manufacturer in that market

  12. Superefficient Refrigerators: Opportunities and Challenges for Efficiency Improvement Globally

    Shah, Nihar; Park, Won Young; Bojda, Nicholas; McNeil, Michael A.

    2014-08-01

    As an energy-intensive mainstream product, residential refrigerators present a significant opportunity to reduce electricity consumption through energy efficiency improvements. Refrigerators expend a considerable amount of electricity during normal use, typically consuming between 100 to 1,000 kWh of electricity per annum. This paper presents the results of a technical analysis done for refrigerators in support of the Super-efficient Equipment and Appliance Deployment (SEAD) initiative. Beginning from a base case representative of the average unit sold in India, we analyze efficiency improvement options and their corresponding costs to build a cost-versus-efficiency relationship. We then consider design improvement options that are known to be the most cost effective and that can improve efficiency given current design configurations. We also analyze and present additional super-efficient options, such as vacuum-insulated panels. We estimate the cost of conserved electricity for the various options, allowing flexible program design for market transformation programs toward higher efficiency. We estimate ~;;160TWh/year of energy savings are cost effective in 2030, indicating significant potential for efficiency improvement in refrigerators in SEAD economies and China.

  13. Update and improvement of the global krypton-85 emission inventory

    Ahlswede, Jochen; Hebel, Simon; Ross, J. Ole; Schoetter, Robert; Kalinowski, Martin B.

    2013-01-01

    Krypton-85 is mainly produced in nuclear reactors by fission of uranium and plutonium and released during chopping and dissolution of spent fuel rods in nuclear reprocessing facilities. As noble gas it is suited as a passive tracer for evaluation of atmospheric transport models. Furthermore, research is ongoing to assess its quality as an indicator for clandestine reprocessing activities. This paper continues previous efforts to compile a comprehensive historic emission inventory for krypton-85. Reprocessing facilities are the by far largest emitters of krypton-85. Information on sources and calculations used to derive the annual krypton-85 emission is provided for all known reprocessing facilities in the world. In addition, the emission characteristics of two plants, Tokai (Japan) and La Hague (France), are analysed in detail using emission data with high temporal resolution. Other types of krypton-85 sources are power reactors, naval reactors and isotope production facilities. These sources contribute only little or negligible amounts of krypton-85 compared to the large reprocessing facilities. Taking the decay of krypton-85 into account, the global atmospheric inventory is estimated to about 5500 PBq at the end of 2009. The correctness if the inventory has been proven by meteorological simulations and its error is assumed to be in the range of a few percent. - Highlights: ► Krypton-85 is mainly produced in nuclear reactors and released during reprocessing. ► Krypten-85 can be possibly used as an indicator for clandestine reprocessing. ► This work provides an up-to-date global krypton-85 emission inventory. ► The inventory includes emissions from all possible artificial sources.

  14. Cooperative Coevolution with Formula-Based Variable Grouping for Large-Scale Global Optimization.

    Wang, Yuping; Liu, Haiyan; Wei, Fei; Zong, Tingting; Li, Xiaodong

    2017-08-09

    For a large-scale global optimization (LSGO) problem, divide-and-conquer is usually considered an effective strategy to decompose the problem into smaller subproblems, each of which can then be solved individually. Among these decomposition methods, variable grouping is shown to be promising in recent years. Existing variable grouping methods usually assume the problem to be black-box (i.e., assuming that an analytical model of the objective function is unknown), and they attempt to learn appropriate variable grouping that would allow for a better decomposition of the problem. In such cases, these variable grouping methods do not make a direct use of the formula of the objective function. However, it can be argued that many real-world problems are white-box problems, that is, the formulas of objective functions are often known a priori. These formulas of the objective functions provide rich information which can then be used to design an effective variable group method. In this article, a formula-based grouping strategy (FBG) for white-box problems is first proposed. It groups variables directly via the formula of an objective function which usually consists of a finite number of operations (i.e., four arithmetic operations "[Formula: see text]", "[Formula: see text]", "[Formula: see text]", "[Formula: see text]" and composite operations of basic elementary functions). In FBG, the operations are classified into two classes: one resulting in nonseparable variables, and the other resulting in separable variables. In FBG, variables can be automatically grouped into a suitable number of non-interacting subcomponents, with variables in each subcomponent being interdependent. FBG can easily be applied to any white-box problem and can be integrated into a cooperative coevolution framework. Based on FBG, a novel cooperative coevolution algorithm with formula-based variable grouping (so-called CCF) is proposed in this article for decomposing a large-scale white-box problem

  15. Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Assessment of global-scale model performance for global and regional ozone distributions, variability, and trends

    P. J. Young

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR is to provide the research community with an up-to-date scientific assessment of tropospheric ozone, from the surface to the tropopause. While a suite of observations provides significant information on the spatial and temporal distribution of tropospheric ozone, observational gaps make it necessary to use global atmospheric chemistry models to synthesize our understanding of the processes and variables that control tropospheric ozone abundance and its variability. Models facilitate the interpretation of the observations and allow us to make projections of future tropospheric ozone and trace gas distributions for different anthropogenic or natural perturbations. This paper assesses the skill of current-generation global atmospheric chemistry models in simulating the observed present-day tropospheric ozone distribution, variability, and trends. Drawing upon the results of recent international multi-model intercomparisons and using a range of model evaluation techniques, we demonstrate that global chemistry models are broadly skillful in capturing the spatio-temporal variations of tropospheric ozone over the seasonal cycle, for extreme pollution episodes, and changes over interannual to decadal periods. However, models are consistently biased high in the northern hemisphere and biased low in the southern hemisphere, throughout the depth of the troposphere, and are unable to replicate particular metrics that define the longer term trends in tropospheric ozone as derived from some background sites. When the models compare unfavorably against observations, we discuss the potential causes of model biases and propose directions for future developments, including improved evaluations that may be able to better diagnose the root cause of the model-observation disparity. Overall, model results should be approached critically, including determining whether the model performance is acceptable for

  16. Spatial scaling of bacterial community diversity at shallow hydrothermal vents: a global comparison

    Pop Ristova, P.; Hassenrueck, C.; Molari, M.; Fink, A.; Bühring, S. I.

    2016-02-01

    Marine shallow hydrothermal vents are extreme environments, often characterized by discharge of fluids with e.g. high temperatures, low pH, and laden with elements toxic to higher organisms. They occur at continental margins around the world's oceans, but represent fragmented, isolated habitats of locally small areal coverage. Microorganisms contribute the main biomass at shallow hydrothermal vent ecosystems and build the basis of the food chain by autotrophic fixation of carbon both via chemosynthesis and photosynthesis, occurring simultaneously. Despite their importance and unique capacity to adapt to these extreme environments, little is known about the spatial scales on which the alpha- and beta-diversity of microbial communities vary at shallow vents, and how the geochemical habitat heterogeneity influences shallow vent biodiversity. Here for the first time we investigated the spatial scaling of microbial biodiversity patterns and their interconnectivity at geochemically diverse shallow vents on a global scale. This study presents data on the comparison of bacterial community structures on large (> 1000 km) and small (0.1 - 100 m) spatial scales as derived from ARISA and Illumina sequencing. Despite the fragmented global distribution of shallow hydrothermal vents, similarity of vent bacterial communities decreased with geographic distance, confirming the ubiquity of distance-decay relationship. Moreover, at all investigated vents, pH was the main factor locally structuring these communities, while temperature influenced both the alpha- and beta-diversity.

  17. Improving the long-term sustainability of health aid: are Global Health Partnerships leading the way?

    Dodd, Rebecca; Lane, Christopher

    2010-09-01

    Over the last decade development assistance for health has more than doubled. This increase provides an unprecedented opportunity to scale up health services, and in doing so, achieve the health Millennium Development Goals. However, sustaining scaling up will in turn require sustainable donor support until domestic health financing can substitute for it. The provision of long-term predictable finance is of particular concern in health because the bulk of costs are recurrent and many interventions require sustained, multi-year support to be successful. This is also true for health systems strengthening efforts. As the bulk of new aid resources flow through Global Health Partnerships (GHPs), their ability to make long-term commitments is critical to health systems development. In order to better understand the constraints that prevent development partners from making long-term commitments of health aid, the World Health Organization reviewed the practices of seven major health partners in committing development assistance funds over the long term. The review found increasing evidence of long-term commitments of aid for health in each of the seven agencies. The GHPs and their funders have been at the forefront of this trend, pioneering many of the new approaches. The study concludes that all partners have scope to improve the duration of aid within existing rules and regulations, and that the main constraints to doing so are political. Predictability is even more of a concern in current global economic circumstances, as access to resources begins to be squeezed. In this context it is important that we learn from GHPs, which have successfully tested innovative approaches to both raising and disbursing health funds. The prospects for change associated with the new administration in the United States-the largest health donor and the most unpredictable, but also a major supporter of GHPs-make this task even more urgent.

  18. Development of Pathways to Achieve the SE4ALL Energy Efficiency Objective: Global and Regional Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvements

    Gregg, Jay Sterling; Balyk, Olexandr; Pérez, Cristian Hernán Cabrera

    This study examines the three objectives of the UN Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL) initiative: 1. Ensure universal access to modern energy services by 2030. 2. Double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency (from 1.3% to 2.6% annual reduction in energy intensity of GDP) by 2030. 3....... Double the share of renewable energy in global final energy from 18% to 36% by 2030. The integrated assessment model, ETSAP-TIAM, was used in this study to compare, from an economic optimization point of view, different scenarios for the development of the energy system between 2010 and 2030....... This analysis is conducted on a global and regional scale. The scenarios were constructed to analyze the effect of achieving the SE4ALL energy efficiency objective, the SE4ALL renewable energy objective, both together, and all three SE4ALL objectives. Synergies exist between renewable energy and energy...

  19. Authentication and Interpretation of Weight Data Collected from Accountability Scales at Global Nuclear Fuels

    Fitzgerald, Peter; Laughter, Mark D.; Martyn, Rose; Richardson, Dave; Rowe, Nathan C.; Pickett, Chris A.; Younkin, James R.; Shephard, Adam M.

    2010-01-01

    Accountability scale data from the Global Nuclear Fuels (GNF) fuel fabrication facility in Wilmington, NC has been collected and analyzed as a part of the Cylinder Accountability and Tracking System (CATS) field trial in 2009. The purpose of the data collection was to demonstrate an authentication method for safeguards applications, and the use of load cell data in cylinder accountability. The scale data was acquired using a commercial off-the-shelf communication server with authentication and encryption capabilities. The authenticated weight data was then analyzed to determine facility operating activities. The data allowed for the determination of the number of full and empty cylinders weighed and the respective weights along with other operational activities. Data authentication concepts, practices and methods, the details of the GNF weight data authentication implementation and scale data interpretation results will be presented.

  20. Developing and testing a global-scale regression model to quantify mean annual streamflow

    Barbarossa, Valerio; Huijbregts, Mark A. J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Clavreul, Julie; King, Henry; Schipper, Aafke M.

    2017-01-01

    Quantifying mean annual flow of rivers (MAF) at ungauged sites is essential for assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. MAF can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict MAF based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. In this study, we developed a global-scale regression model for MAF based on a dataset unprecedented in size, using observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from 1885 catchments worldwide, measuring between 2 and 106 km2. In addition, we compared the performance of the regression model with the predictive ability of the spatially explicit global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB by comparing results from both models to independent measurements. We obtained a regression model explaining 89% of the variance in MAF based on catchment area and catchment averaged mean annual precipitation and air temperature, slope and elevation. The regression model performed better than PCR-GLOBWB for the prediction of MAF, as root-mean-square error (RMSE) values were lower (0.29-0.38 compared to 0.49-0.57) and the modified index of agreement (d) was higher (0.80-0.83 compared to 0.72-0.75). Our regression model can be applied globally to estimate MAF at any point of the river network, thus providing a feasible alternative to spatially explicit process-based global hydrological models.

  1. Improving InSAR geodesy using Global Atmospheric Models

    Jolivet, Romain; Agram, Piyush Shanker; Lin, Nina Y.; Simons, Mark; Doin, Marie-Pierre; Peltzer, Gilles; Li, Zhenghong

    2014-03-01

    Spatial and temporal variations of pressure, temperature, and water vapor content in the atmosphere introduce significant confounding delays in interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) observations of ground deformation and bias estimates of regional strain rates. Producing robust estimates of tropospheric delays remains one of the key challenges in increasing the accuracy of ground deformation measurements using InSAR. Recent studies revealed the efficiency of global atmospheric reanalysis to mitigate the impact of tropospheric delays, motivating further exploration of their potential. Here we explore the effectiveness of these models in several geographic and tectonic settings on both single interferograms and time series analysis products. Both hydrostatic and wet contributions to the phase delay are important to account for. We validate these path delay corrections by comparing with estimates of vertically integrated atmospheric water vapor content derived from the passive multispectral imager Medium-Resolution Imaging Spectrometer, onboard the Envisat satellite. Generally, the performance of the prediction depends on the vigor of atmospheric turbulence. We discuss (1) how separating atmospheric and orbital contributions allows one to better measure long-wavelength deformation and (2) how atmospheric delays affect measurements of surface deformation following earthquakes, and (3) how such a method allows us to reduce biases in multiyear strain rate estimates by reducing the influence of unevenly sampled seasonal oscillations of the tropospheric delay.

  2. The Global Environment Facility (GEF): Right mechanism for improved implementation?

    Andresen, Steinar; Rosendal, Kristin G.

    2012-11-01

    The purpose is to feed into the international discussions of environmental financial mechanisms such as for forestry and mercury by examining the performance of the GEF. We discuss performance against effectiveness and legitimacy and focus on institutional set-up and key actors as explanatory factors. Methodologically, we use document and literature analysis and interviews with key actors in organizations, state representatives and NGOs. The dominant position of the USA and the World Bank has probably contributed to the bias towards a northern environmental agenda and emphasis on effectiveness and climate change projects. The GEF has somewhat predictably diverted the flow of international money from the poorest countries to more rapidly developing countries. Still, despite turf battles between the organizations involved, the broad organisational and thematic composition of the GEF has comparative advantages. This enhances the score on legitimacy especially for biodiversity projects, although they receive less overall funding. The GEF may be seen as an indication of how, regardless of choosing established or new institutions, basic power structures and interests of dominating parties will be largely decisive for what can be achieved in global environmental governance.(auth)

  3. Improved Offshore Wind Resource Assessment in Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios

    Arent, D.; Sullivan, P.; Heimiller, D.; Lopez, A.; Eurek, K.; Badger, J.; Jorgensen, H. E.; Kelly, M.; Clarke, L.; Luckow, P.

    2012-10-01

    This paper introduces a technique for digesting geospatial wind-speed data into areally defined -- country-level, in this case -- wind resource supply curves. We combined gridded wind-vector data for ocean areas with bathymetry maps, country exclusive economic zones, wind turbine power curves, and other datasets and relevant parameters to build supply curves that estimate a country's offshore wind resource defined by resource quality, depth, and distance-from-shore. We include a single set of supply curves -- for a particular assumption set -- and study some implications of including it in a global energy model. We also discuss the importance of downscaling gridded wind vector data to capturing the full resource potential, especially over land areas with complex terrain. This paper includes motivation and background for a statistical downscaling methodology to account for terrain effects with a low computational burden. Finally, we use this forum to sketch a framework for building synthetic electric networks to estimate transmission accessibility of renewable resource sites in remote areas.

  4. Update and improvement of the global krypton-85 emission inventory.

    Ahlswede, Jochen; Hebel, Simon; Ross, J Ole; Schoetter, Robert; Kalinowski, Martin B

    2013-01-01

    Krypton-85 is mainly produced in nuclear reactors by fission of uranium and plutonium and released during chopping and dissolution of spent fuel rods in nuclear reprocessing facilities. As noble gas it is suited as a passive tracer for evaluation of atmospheric transport models. Furthermore, research is ongoing to assess its quality as an indicator for clandestine reprocessing activities. This paper continues previous efforts to compile a comprehensive historic emission inventory for krypton-85. Reprocessing facilities are the by far largest emitters of krypton-85. Information on sources and calculations used to derive the annual krypton-85 emission is provided for all known reprocessing facilities in the world. In addition, the emission characteristics of two plants, Tokai (Japan) and La Hague (France), are analysed in detail using emission data with high temporal resolution. Other types of krypton-85 sources are power reactors, naval reactors and isotope production facilities. These sources contribute only little or negligible amounts of krypton-85 compared to the large reprocessing facilities. Taking the decay of krypton-85 into account, the global atmospheric inventory is estimated to about 5500 PBq at the end of 2009. The correctness if the inventory has been proven by meteorological simulations and its error is assumed to be in the range of a few percent. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. The Role of Frequent Short Exams in Improving Student Performance in Hybrid Global Business Classes

    Nakos, George; Whiting, Anita

    2018-01-01

    The authors investigate whether frequent in class exams can improve the performance of students in hybrid global business courses. An experiment was conducted in three hybrid sections of a global business course exposing students to short in class exams. The expectation of a short exam forces students to watch the online lectures and study the…

  6. Process improvement of knives production in a small scale industry

    Ananto, Gamawan; Muktasim, Irfan

    2017-06-01

    Small scale industry that produces several kinds of knive should increase its capacity due to the demand from the market. Qualitatively, this case study consisted of formulating the problems, collecting and analyzing the necessary data, and determining the possible recommendations for the improvement. While the current capacity is only 9 (nine), it is expected that 20 units of knife will produced per month. The processes sequence are: profiling (a), truing (b), beveling (c), heat treatment (d), polishing (e), assembly (f), sharpening (g) and finishing (h). The first process (a) is held by out-house vendor company while other steps from (b) to (g) are executed by in-house vendor. However, there is a high dependency upon the high skilled operator who executes the in -house processes that are mostly held manually with several unbalance successive tasks, where the processing time of one or two tasks require longer duration than others since the operation is merely relied on the operator's skill. The idea is the improvement or change of the profiling and beveling process. Due to the poor surface quality and suboptimal hardness resulted from the laser cut machine for profiling, it is considered to subst itute this kind of process with wire cut that is capable to obtain good surface quality with certain range levels of roughness. Through simple cutting experiments on the samples, it is expected that the generated surface quality is adequate to omit the truing process (b). In addition, the cutting experiments on one, two, and four test samples resulted the shortest time that was obtained through four pieces in one cut. The technical parameters were set according to the recommendation of machine standard as referred to samples condition such as thickness and path length that affect ed the rate of wear. Meanwhile, in order to guarantee the uniformity of knife angles that are formed through beveling process (c), a grinding fixture was created. This kind of tool diminishes the

  7. Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach.

    Kebede, Abiy S; Nicholls, Robert J; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Iñaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A; Hill, Chris T; Hutton, Craig W; Kay, Susan; Lázár, Attila N; Macadam, Ian; Palmer, Matthew; Suckall, Natalie; Tompkins, Emma L; Vincent, Katharine; Whitehead, Paul W

    2018-09-01

    To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA 1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision

  8. A suite of global, cross-scale topographic variables for environmental and biodiversity modeling

    Amatulli, Giuseppe; Domisch, Sami; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Parmentier, Benoit; Ranipeta, Ajay; Malczyk, Jeremy; Jetz, Walter

    2018-03-01

    Topographic variation underpins a myriad of patterns and processes in hydrology, climatology, geography and ecology and is key to understanding the variation of life on the planet. A fully standardized and global multivariate product of different terrain features has the potential to support many large-scale research applications, however to date, such datasets are unavailable. Here we used the digital elevation model products of global 250 m GMTED2010 and near-global 90 m SRTM4.1dev to derive a suite of topographic variables: elevation, slope, aspect, eastness, northness, roughness, terrain roughness index, topographic position index, vector ruggedness measure, profile/tangential curvature, first/second order partial derivative, and 10 geomorphological landform classes. We aggregated each variable to 1, 5, 10, 50 and 100 km spatial grains using several aggregation approaches. While a cross-correlation underlines the high similarity of many variables, a more detailed view in four mountain regions reveals local differences, as well as scale variations in the aggregated variables at different spatial grains. All newly-developed variables are available for download at Data Citation 1 and for download and visualization at http://www.earthenv.org/topography.

  9. Landslide susceptibility mapping on a global scale using the method of logistic regression

    L. Lin

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a statistical model for mapping global landslide susceptibility based on logistic regression. After investigating explanatory factors for landslides in the existing literature, five factors were selected for model landslide susceptibility: relative relief, extreme precipitation, lithology, ground motion and soil moisture. When building the model, 70 % of landslide and nonlandslide points were randomly selected for logistic regression, and the others were used for model validation. To evaluate the accuracy of predictive models, this paper adopts several criteria including a receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve method. Logistic regression experiments found all five factors to be significant in explaining landslide occurrence on a global scale. During the modeling process, percentage correct in confusion matrix of landslide classification was approximately 80 % and the area under the curve (AUC was nearly 0.87. During the validation process, the above statistics were about 81 % and 0.88, respectively. Such a result indicates that the model has strong robustness and stable performance. This model found that at a global scale, soil moisture can be dominant in the occurrence of landslides and topographic factor may be secondary.

  10. Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison.

    Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Arneth, Almut; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan; Eitelberg, David A; Engström, Kerstin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Jain, Atul K; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald D; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schüngel, Jan; Stehfest, Elke; Tabeau, Andrzej; Van Meijl, Hans; Van Vliet, Jasper; Verburg, Peter H

    2016-12-01

    Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC

  11. Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

  12. Global Burden of Disease of Mercury Used in Artisanal Small-Scale Gold Mining.

    Steckling, Nadine; Tobollik, Myriam; Plass, Dietrich; Hornberg, Claudia; Ericson, Bret; Fuller, Richard; Bose-O'Reilly, Stephan

    Artisanal small-scale gold mining (ASGM) is the world's largest anthropogenic source of mercury emission. Gold miners are highly exposed to metallic mercury and suffer occupational mercury intoxication. The global disease burden as a result of this exposure is largely unknown because the informal character of ASGM restricts the availability of reliable data. To estimate the prevalence of occupational mercury intoxication and the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to chronic metallic mercury vapor intoxication (CMMVI) among ASGM gold miners globally and in selected countries. Estimates of the number of artisanal small-scale gold (ASG) miners were extracted from reviews supplemented by a literature search. Prevalence of moderate CMMVI among miners was determined by compiling a dataset of available studies that assessed frequency of intoxication in gold miners using a standardized diagnostic tool and biomonitoring data on mercury in urine. Severe cases of CMMVI were not included because it was assumed that these persons can no longer be employed as miners. Cases in workers' families and communities were not considered. Years lived with disability as a result of CMMVI among ASG miners were quantified by multiplying the number of prevalent cases of CMMVI by the appropriate disability weight. No deaths are expected to result from CMMVI and therefore years of life lost were not calculated. Disease burden was calculated by multiplying the prevalence rate with the number of miners for each country and the disability weight. Sensitivity analyses were performed using different assumptions on the number of miners and the intoxication prevalence rate. Globally, 14-19 million workers are employed as ASG miners. Based on human biomonitoring data, between 25% and 33% of these miners-3.3-6.5 million miners globally-suffer from moderate CMMVI. The resulting global burden of disease is estimated to range from 1.22 (uncertainty interval [UI] 0.87-1.61) to 2.39 (UI 1

  13. Data Synthesis and Data Assimilation at Global Change Experiments and Fluxnet Toward Improving Land Process Models

    Luo, Yiqi [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States). Dept. of Microbiology and Plant Biology

    2017-09-12

    The project was conducted during the period from 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2017 with three major tasks: (1) data synthesis and development of data assimilation (DA) techniques to constrain modeled ecosystem feedback to climate change; (2) applications of DA techniques to improve process models at different scales from ecosystem to regions and the globe; and 3) improvements of modeling soil carbon (C) dynamics by land surface models. During this period, we have synthesized published data from soil incubation experiments (e.g., Chen et al., 2016; Xu et al., 2016; Feng et al., 2016), global change experiments (e.g., Li et al., 2013; Shi et al., 2015, 2016; Liang et al., 2016) and fluxnet (e.g., Niu et al., 2012., Xia et al., 2015; Li et al., 2016). These data have been organized into multiple data products and have been used to identify general mechanisms and estimate parameters for model improvement. We used the data sets that we collected and the DA techniques to improve model performance of both ecosystem models and global land models. The objectives are: 1) to improve model simulations of litter and soil carbon storage (e.g., Schädel et al., 2013; Hararuk and Luo, 2014; Hararuk et al., 2014; Liang et al., 2015); 2) to explore the effects of CO2, warming and precipitation on ecosystem processes (e.g., van Groenigen et al., 2014; Shi et al., 2015, 2016; Feng et al., 2017); and 3) to estimate parameters variability in different ecosystems (e.g., Li et al., 2016). We developed a traceability framework, which was based on matrix approaches and decomposed the modeled steady-state terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage capacity into four can trace the difference in ecosystem carbon storage capacity among different biomes to four traceable components: net primary productivity (NPP), baseline C residence times, environmental scalars and climate forcing (Xia et al., 2013). With this framework, we can diagnose the differences in modeled carbon storage across ecosystems

  14. Excess entropy scaling for the segmental and global dynamics of polyethylene melts.

    Voyiatzis, Evangelos; Müller-Plathe, Florian; Böhm, Michael C

    2014-11-28

    The range of validity of the Rosenfeld and Dzugutov excess entropy scaling laws is analyzed for unentangled linear polyethylene chains. We consider two segmental dynamical quantities, i.e. the bond and the torsional relaxation times, and two global ones, i.e. the chain diffusion coefficient and the viscosity. The excess entropy is approximated by either a series expansion of the entropy in terms of the pair correlation function or by an equation of state for polymers developed in the context of the self associating fluid theory. For the whole range of temperatures and chain lengths considered, the two estimates of the excess entropy are linearly correlated. The scaled bond and torsional relaxation times fall into a master curve irrespective of the chain length and the employed scaling scheme. Both quantities depend non-linearly on the excess entropy. For a fixed chain length, the reduced diffusion coefficient and viscosity scale linearly with the excess entropy. An empirical reduction to a chain length-independent master curve is accessible for both dynamic quantities. The Dzugutov scheme predicts an increased value of the scaled diffusion coefficient with increasing chain length which contrasts physical expectations. The origin of this trend can be traced back to the density dependence of the scaling factors. This finding has not been observed previously for Lennard-Jones chain systems (Macromolecules, 2013, 46, 8710-8723). Thus, it limits the applicability of the Dzugutov approach to polymers. In connection with diffusion coefficients and viscosities, the Rosenfeld scaling law appears to be of higher quality than the Dzugutov approach. An empirical excess entropy scaling is also proposed which leads to a chain length-independent correlation. It is expected to be valid for polymers in the Rouse regime.

  15. Global-scale assessment and combination of SMAP with ASCAT (active) and AMSR2 (passive) soil moisture products

    Kim, Hyunglok; Parinussa, Robert; Konings, Alexandra G.; Wagner, Wolfgang; Cosh, Michael H.; Lakshmi, Venkat; Zohaib, Muhammad; Choi, Minha

    2018-01-01

    Global-scale surface soil moisture (SSM) products retrieved from active and passive microwave remote sensing provide an effective method for monitoring near-real-time SSM content with nearly daily temporal resolution. In the present study, we first inter-compared global-scale error patterns and combined the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) SSM products using a triple collocation (TC) analysis and the maximized Pearson correlation coefficient (R) method from April 2015 to December 2016. The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and global in situ observations were utilized to investigate and to compare the quality of satellite-based SSM products. The average R-values of SMAP, ASCAT, and AMSR2 were 0.74, 0.64, and 0.65 when they compared with in situ networks, respectively. The ubRMSD values were (0.0411, 0.0625, and 0.0708) m3 m- 3; and the bias values were (- 0.0460, 0.0010, and 0.0418) m3 m- 3 for SMAP, ASCAT, and AMSR2, respectively. The highest average R-values from SMAP against the in situ results are very encouraging; only SMAP showed higher R-values than GLDAS in several in situ networks with low ubRMSD (0.0438 m3 m- 3). Overall, SMAP showed a dry bias (- 0.0460 m3 m- 3) and AMSR2 had a wet bias (0.0418 m3 m- 3); while ASCAT showed the least bias (0.0010 m3 m- 3) among all the products. Each product was evaluated using TC metrics with respect to the different ranges of vegetation optical depth (VOD). Under vegetation scarce conditions (VOD 0.40) ASCAT showed comparatively better performance than did the other products. Using the maximized R method, SMAP, ASCAT, and AMSR2 products were combined one by one using the GLDAS dataset for reference SSM values. When the satellite products were combined, R-values of the combined products were improved or degraded depending on the VOD ranges produced, when compared with the results from the original products alone. The

  16. Modeling the impact of large-scale energy conversion systems on global climate

    Williams, J.

    There are three energy options which could satisfy a projected energy requirement of about 30 TW and these are the solar, nuclear and (to a lesser extent) coal options. Climate models can be used to assess the impact of large scale deployment of these options. The impact of waste heat has been assessed using energy balance models and general circulation models (GCMs). Results suggest that the impacts are significant when the heat imput is very high and studies of more realistic scenarios are required. Energy balance models, radiative-convective models and a GCM have been used to study the impact of doubling the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. State-of-the-art models estimate a surface temperature increase of 1.5-3.0 0 C with large amplification near the poles, but much uncertainty remains. Very few model studies have been made of the impact of particles on global climate, more information on the characteristics of particle input are required. The impact of large-scale deployment of solar energy conversion systems has received little attention but model studies suggest that large scale changes in surface characteristics associated with such systems (surface heat balance, roughness and hydrological characteristics and ocean surface temperature) could have significant global climatic effects. (Auth.)

  17. MODELING THE SUN’S SMALL-SCALE GLOBAL PHOTOSPHERIC MAGNETIC FIELD

    Meyer, K. A. [Division of Computing and Mathematics, Abertay University, Kydd Building, Dundee, Bell Street, DD1 1HG, Scotland (United Kingdom); Mackay, D. H., E-mail: k.meyer@abertay.ac.uk [School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of St Andrews, North Haugh, St Andrews, KY16 9SS, Scotland (United Kingdom)

    2016-10-20

    We present a new model for the Sun’s global photospheric magnetic field during a deep minimum of activity, in which no active regions emerge. The emergence and subsequent evolution of small-scale magnetic features across the full solar surface is simulated, subject to the influence of a global supergranular flow pattern. Visually, the resulting simulated magnetograms reproduce the typical structure and scale observed in quiet Sun magnetograms. Quantitatively, the simulation quickly reaches a steady state, resulting in a mean field and flux distribution that are in good agreement with those determined from observations. A potential coronal magnetic field is extrapolated from the simulated full Sun magnetograms to consider the implications of such a quiet photospheric magnetic field on the corona and inner heliosphere. The bulk of the coronal magnetic field closes very low down, in short connections between small-scale features in the simulated magnetic network. Just 0.1% of the photospheric magnetic flux is found to be open at 2.5 R {sub ⊙}, around 10–100 times less than that determined for typical Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager synoptic map observations. If such conditions were to exist on the Sun, this would lead to a significantly weaker interplanetary magnetic field than is currently observed, and hence a much higher cosmic ray flux at Earth.

  18. Improving weapons fallout time series on a global basis using precipitation data

    Palsson, S.E.; Howard, B.J.; Aoyama, M.

    2004-01-01

    The fallout from the atmospheric weapons tests in the late fifties and early sixties forms the main source of man made radionuclides in the terrestrial environment. It is important to be able to distinguish global fallout from other sources of man-made radioactivity, and therefore to have good methods of quantifying the level of global fallout in areas where it has not previously been measured. Because global fallout was deposited over many years, model validation can require knowledge about deposition time series which are not available through direct measurements. This can be especially important for sparsely populated areas with vulnerable ecosystems, where high transfer of radionuclides, particularly radiocaesium, may occur. The UNSCEAR reports describe the global data and show how the deposition was dependent on latitude. Others have successfully used a model assuming a proportional relationship between deposition and precipitation (e.g. on a regional scale within the AMAP project and on a local scale in some countries, such as Iceland and Sweden). This paper describes a study where different data sets were combined to test, at a local scale to a global scale, how well the proportional relationship between precipitation and deposition holds and to what degree other effects (e.g. dependence on latitude as in the UNSCEAR model) need to be taken into account. It makes use of the Integrated Global Fallout Database of the Meteorological Research Institute of Japan which has been used previously to demonstrate the relationship between precipitation and deposition and subsequently to make an estimate of the total fallout amount of 137 Cs in the mid latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The study described in this paper provides a fuller description of global deposition than the latitude or precipitation based studies alone. Applied in a simple model as presented here, this enable better deposition estimation (including time dependency), especially if precipitation

  19. Global asymptotic stabilization of large-scale hydraulic networks using positive proportional controls

    Jensen, Tom Nørgaard; Wisniewski, Rafal

    2014-01-01

    An industrial case study involving a large-scale hydraulic network underlying a district heating system subject to structural changes is considered. The problem of controlling the pressure drop across the so-called end-user valves in the network to a designated vector of reference values under...... directional actuator constraints is addressed. The proposed solution consists of a set of decentralized positively constrained proportional control actions. The results show that the closed-loop system always has a globally asymptotically stable equilibrium point independently on the number of end......-users. Furthermore, by a proper design of controller gains the closed-loop equilibrium point can be designed to belong to an arbitrarily small neighborhood of the desired equilibrium point. Since there exists a globally asymptotically stable equilibrium point independently on the number of end-users in the system...

  20. Global terrain classification using Multiple-Error-Removed Improved-Terrain (MERIT) to address susceptibility of landslides and other geohazards

    Iwahashi, J.; Yamazaki, D.; Matsuoka, M.; Thamarux, P.; Herrick, J.; Yong, A.; Mital, U.

    2017-12-01

    A seamless model of landform classifications with regional accuracy will be a powerful platform for geophysical studies that forecast geologic hazards. Spatial variability as a function of landform on a global scale was captured in the automated classifications of Iwahashi and Pike (2007) and additional developments are presented here that incorporate more accurate depictions using higher-resolution elevation data than the original 1-km scale Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model (DEM). We create polygon-based terrain classifications globally by using the 280-m DEM interpolated from the Multi-Error-Removed Improved-Terrain DEM (MERIT; Yamazaki et al., 2017). The multi-scale pixel-image analysis method, known as Multi-resolution Segmentation (Baatz and Schäpe, 2000), is first used to classify the terrains based on geometric signatures (slope and local convexity) calculated from the 280-m DEM. Next, we apply the machine learning method of "k-means clustering" to prepare the polygon-based classification at the globe-scale using slope, local convexity and surface texture. We then group the divisions with similar properties by hierarchical clustering and other statistical analyses using geological and geomorphological data of the area where landslides and earthquakes are frequent (e.g. Japan and California). We find the 280-m DEM resolution is only partially sufficient for classifying plains. We nevertheless observe that the categories correspond to reported landslide and liquefaction features at the global scale, suggesting that our model is an appropriate platform to forecast ground failure. To predict seismic amplification, we estimate site conditions using the time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the upper 30-m (VS30) measurements compiled by Yong et al. (2016) and the terrain model developed by Yong (2016; Y16). We plan to test our method on finer resolution DEMs and report our findings to obtain a more globally consistent terrain model as there

  1. Improved simulation of tropospheric ozone by a global-multi-regional two-way coupling model system

    Y. Yan

    2016-02-01

    with the ground measurements from 0.53 to 0.68, and it reduces the mean model bias from 10.8 to 6.7 ppb. Regionally, the coupled system reduces the bias by 4.6 ppb over Europe, 3.9 ppb over North America and 3.1 ppb over other regions. The two-way coupling brings O3 vertical profiles much closer to the HIPPO (for remote areas and MOZAIC (for polluted regions data, reducing the tropospheric (0–9 km mean bias by 3–10 ppb at most MOZAIC sites and by 5.3 ppb for HIPPO profiles. The two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric column ozone by 3.0 DU (9.5 %, annual mean, bringing them closer to the OMI data in all seasons. Additionally, the two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric mean hydroxyl radical by 5 % with improved estimates of methyl chloroform and methane lifetimes. Simulation improvements are more significant in the Northern Hemisphere, and are mainly driven by improved representation of spatial inhomogeneity in chemistry/emissions. Within the nested domains, the two-way coupled simulation reduces surface ozone biases relative to typical GEOS-Chem one-way nested simulations, due to much improved LBCs. The bias reduction is 1–7 times the bias reduction from the global to the one-way nested simulation. Improving model representations of small-scale processes is important for understanding the global and regional tropospheric chemistry.

  2. Kinetics programs for simulation of tropospheric photochemistry on the global scale

    Elliott, S.; Kao, C.Y.J.; Turco, R.P.; Zhao, X.P.

    1993-08-01

    The study of tropospheric kinetics underlies global change because key greenhouse gases are photochemically active. Modeling of tropospheric chemistry on a global scale is essential because some indirect greenhouse gases are short-lived and interact in a non-linear fashion. It is also extremely challenging, however; the global change grid is extensive in both the physical and temporal domains, and critical lower atmospheric species include the organics and their oxidized derivatives, which are numerous. Several types of optimization may be incorporated into kinetics modules to enhance their ability to simulate the complete lower atmospheric gas phase chemical system. (1) The photochemical integrator can be accelerated by avoiding matrix and iterative solutions and by establishing families. Accuracy and mass conservation are sacrificed in the absence of iteration, but atom balancing is restorable post hoc. (2) Chemistry can be arranged upon the massive grid to exploit parallel processing, and solutions to its continuity equations can be automated to permit experimentation with species and reaction lists or family definitions. Costs in programming effort will be incurred in these cases. (3) Complex hydrocarbon decay sequences can be streamlined either through structural lumping methods descended from smog investigations, which require considerable calibration, or by defining surrogates for classes of compounds, with a loss in constituent detail. From among the available options, the most advantageous permutations will vary with the specific nature of any eventual global scale study, and there is likely to be demand for many approaches. Tracer transport codes serve as a foundation upon which tropospheric chemistry packages will be tested. Encroachment of the NO x sphere of influence upon tropical rain forests and the upper free troposphere are two examples of specific problems to which full three-dimensional chemical simulations might be applied

  3. Assessing the influence of watershed characteristics on chlorophyll a in waterbodies at global and regional scales

    Woelmer, Whitney; Kao, Yu-Chun; Bunnell, David B.; Deines, Andrew M.; Bennion, David; Rogers, Mark W.; Brooks, Colin N.; Sayers, Michael J.; Banach, David M.; Grimm, Amanda G.; Shuchman, Robert A.

    2016-01-01

    Prediction of primary production of lentic water bodies (i.e., lakes and reservoirs) is valuable to researchers and resource managers alike, but is very rarely done at the global scale. With the development of remote sensing technologies, it is now feasible to gather large amounts of data across the world, including understudied and remote regions. To determine which factors were most important in explaining the variation of chlorophyll a (Chl-a), an indicator of primary production in water bodies, at global and regional scales, we first developed a geospatial database of 227 water bodies and watersheds with corresponding Chl-a, nutrient, hydrogeomorphic, and climate data. Then we used a generalized additive modeling approach and developed model selection criteria to select models that most parsimoniously related Chl-a to predictor variables for all 227 water bodies and for 51 lakes in the Laurentian Great Lakes region in the data set. Our best global model contained two hydrogeomorphic variables (water body surface area and the ratio of watershed to water body surface area) and a climate variable (average temperature in the warmest model selection criteria to select models that most parsimoniously related Chl-a to predictor variables quarter) and explained ~ 30% of variation in Chl-a. Our regional model contained one hydrogeomorphic variable (flow accumulation) and the same climate variable, but explained substantially more variation (58%). Our results indicate that a regional approach to watershed modeling may be more informative to predicting Chl-a, and that nearly a third of global variability in Chl-a may be explained using hydrogeomorphic and climate variables.

  4. Global-scale high-resolution ( 1 km) modelling of mean, maximum and minimum annual streamflow

    Barbarossa, Valerio; Huijbregts, Mark; Hendriks, Jan; Beusen, Arthur; Clavreul, Julie; King, Henry; Schipper, Aafke

    2017-04-01

    Quantifying mean, maximum and minimum annual flow (AF) of rivers at ungauged sites is essential for a number of applications, including assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. AF metrics can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict AF metrics based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, so far, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. We developed global-scale regression models that quantify mean, maximum and minimum AF as function of catchment area and catchment-averaged slope, elevation, and mean, maximum and minimum annual precipitation and air temperature. We then used these models to obtain global 30 arc-seconds (˜ 1 km) maps of mean, maximum and minimum AF for each year from 1960 through 2015, based on a newly developed hydrologically conditioned digital elevation model. We calibrated our regression models based on observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from about 4,000 catchments worldwide, ranging from 100 to 106 km2 in size, and validated them against independent measurements as well as the output of a number of process-based global hydrological models (GHMs). The variance explained by our regression models ranged up to 90% and the performance of the models compared well with the performance of existing GHMs. Yet, our AF maps provide a level of spatial detail that cannot yet be achieved by current GHMs.

  5. Assessment of Global Functioning in Adolescents with Autism Spectrum Disorders: Utility of the Developmental Disability-Child Global Assessment Scale

    White, Susan W.; Smith, Laura A.; Schry, Amie R.

    2014-01-01

    Assessment of global functioning is an important consideration in treatment outcome research; yet, there is little guidance on its evidence-based assessment for children with autism spectrum disorders. This study investigated the utility and validity of clinician-rated global functioning using the Developmental Disability-Child Global Assessment…

  6. Improving global environmental management with standard corporate reporting

    Kareiva, Peter M.; McNally, Brynn W.; McCormick, Steve; Miller, Tom; Ruckelshaus, Mary

    2015-01-01

    Multinational corporations play a prominent role in shaping the environmental trajectory of the planet. The integration of environmental costs and benefits into corporate decision-making has enormous, but as yet unfulfilled, potential to promote sustainable development. To help steer business decisions toward better environmental outcomes, corporate reporting frameworks need to develop scientifically informed standards that consistently consider land use and land conversion, clean air (including greenhouse gas emissions), availability and quality of freshwater, degradation of coastal and marine habitats, and sustainable use of renewable resources such as soil, timber, and fisheries. Standardization by itself will not be enough—also required are advances in ecosystem modeling and in our understanding of critical ecological thresholds. With improving ecosystem science, the opportunity for realizing a major breakthrough in reporting corporate environmental impacts and dependencies has never been greater. Now is the time for ecologists to take advantage of an explosion of sustainability commitments from business leaders and expanding pressure for sustainable practices from shareholders, financial institutions, and consumers. PMID:26082543

  7. Improving global environmental management with standard corporate reporting.

    Kareiva, Peter M; McNally, Brynn W; McCormick, Steve; Miller, Tom; Ruckelshaus, Mary

    2015-06-16

    Multinational corporations play a prominent role in shaping the environmental trajectory of the planet. The integration of environmental costs and benefits into corporate decision-making has enormous, but as yet unfulfilled, potential to promote sustainable development. To help steer business decisions toward better environmental outcomes, corporate reporting frameworks need to develop scientifically informed standards that consistently consider land use and land conversion, clean air (including greenhouse gas emissions), availability and quality of freshwater, degradation of coastal and marine habitats, and sustainable use of renewable resources such as soil, timber, and fisheries. Standardization by itself will not be enough--also required are advances in ecosystem modeling and in our understanding of critical ecological thresholds. With improving ecosystem science, the opportunity for realizing a major breakthrough in reporting corporate environmental impacts and dependencies has never been greater. Now is the time for ecologists to take advantage of an explosion of sustainability commitments from business leaders and expanding pressure for sustainable practices from shareholders, financial institutions, and consumers.

  8. Spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of global scale climate-groundwater interactions

    Cuthbert, M. O.; Gleeson, T. P.; Moosdorf, N.; Schneider, A. C.; Hartmann, J.; Befus, K. M.; Lehner, B.

    2017-12-01

    The interactions between groundwater and climate are important to resolve in both space and time as they influence mass and energy transfers at Earth's land surface. Despite the significance of these processes, little is known about the spatio-temporal distribution of such interactions globally, and many large-scale climate, hydrological and land surface models oversimplify groundwater or exclude it completely. In this study we bring together diverse global geomatic data sets to map spatial patterns in the sensitivity and degree of connectedness between the water table and the land surface, and use the output from a global groundwater model to assess the locations where the lateral import or export of groundwater is significant. We also quantify the groundwater response time, the characteristic time for groundwater systems to respond to a change in boundary conditions, and map its distribution globally to assess the likely dynamics of groundwater's interaction with climate. We find that more than half of the global land surface significantly exports or imports groundwater laterally. Nearly 40% of Earth's landmass has water tables that are strongly coupled to topography with water tables shallow enough to enable a bi-directional exchange of moisture with the climate system. However, only a small proportion (around 12%) of such regions have groundwater response times of 100 years or less and have groundwater fluxes that would significantly respond to rapid environmental changes over this timescale. We last explore fundamental relationships between aridity, groundwater response times and groundwater turnover times. Our results have wide ranging implications for understanding and modelling changes in Earth's water and energy balance and for informing robust future water management and security decisions.

  9. Phosphorus in agricultural soils: drivers of its distribution at the global scale

    Ringeval, Bruno [ISPA, Villenave d' Ornon (France); Augusto, Laurent [ISPA, Villenave d' Ornon (France); Monod, Herve [Univ. Paris-Saclay, Jouy-en-Josas (France); van Apeldoorn, Dirk [Utrecht Univ., Utrecht (The Netherlands); Bouwman, Lex [Utrecht Univ., Utrecht (The Netherlands); Yang, Xiaojuan [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Achat, David L. [ISPA, Villenave d' Ornon (France); Chini, Louise P. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Van Oost, Kristof [Univ. Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Guenet, Bertrand [Univ. Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Wang, Rong [Univ. Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Peking Univ., Beijing (China); Decharme, Bertrand [CNRS/Meteo-France, Toulouse (France); Nesme, Thomas [ISPA, Villenave d' Ornon (France); Pellerin, Sylvain [ISPA, Villenave d' Ornon (France)

    2017-01-09

    Phosphorus (P) availability in soils limits crop yields in many regions of the world, while excess of soil P triggers aquatic eutrophication in other regions. Numerous processes drive the global spatial distribution of P in agricultural soils, but their relative roles remain unclear. Here, we combined several global datasets describing these drivers with a soil P dynamics model to simulate the distribution of P in agricultural soils and to assess the contributions of the different drivers at the global scale. We analyzed both the labile inorganic P (PILAB), a proxy of the pool involved in plant nutrition and the total soil P (PTOT). We found that the soil biogeochemical background (BIOG) and farming practices (FARM) were the main drivers of the spatial variability in cropland soil P content but that their contribution varied between PTOT vs PILAB. Indeed, 97% of the PTOT spatial variability could be explained by BIOG, while BIOG and FARM explained 41% and 58% of PILAB spatial variability, respectively. Other drivers such as climate, soil erosion, atmospheric P deposition and soil buffering capacity made only very small contribution. Lastly, our study is a promising approach to investigate the potential effect of P as a limiting factor for agricultural ecosystems and for global food production. Additionally, we quantified the anthropogenic perturbation of P cycle and demonstrated how the different drivers are combined to explain the global distribution of agricultural soil P.

  10. Global Precipitation Analyses at Time Scales of Monthly to 3-Hourly

    Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations are discussed. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the Goodyear data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the Goodyear period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENRON variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The GPCP daily, 1 degree latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present is described and the evolution of precipitation patterns on this time scale related to El Nino and La Nina is described. Finally, a TRMM-based Based analysis is described that uses TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I and geosynchronous OR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, Baehr resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January Represent). A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50 deg. N -50 deg. S. Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions.

  11. Bayesian Proteoform Modeling Improves Protein Quantification of Global Proteomic Measurements

    Webb-Robertson, Bobbie-Jo M.; Matzke, Melissa M.; Datta, Susmita; Payne, Samuel H.; Kang, Jiyun; Bramer, Lisa M.; Nicora, Carrie D.; Shukla, Anil K.; Metz, Thomas O.; Rodland, Karin D.; Smith, Richard D.; Tardiff, Mark F.; McDermott, Jason E.; Pounds, Joel G.; Waters, Katrina M.

    2014-12-01

    As the capability of mass spectrometry-based proteomics has matured, tens of thousands of peptides can be measured simultaneously, which has the benefit of offering a systems view of protein expression. However, a major challenge is that with an increase in throughput, protein quantification estimation from the native measured peptides has become a computational task. A limitation to existing computationally-driven protein quantification methods is that most ignore protein variation, such as alternate splicing of the RNA transcript and post-translational modifications or other possible proteoforms, which will affect a significant fraction of the proteome. The consequence of this assumption is that statistical inference at the protein level, and consequently downstream analyses, such as network and pathway modeling, have only limited power for biomarker discovery. Here, we describe a Bayesian model (BP-Quant) that uses statistically derived peptides signatures to identify peptides that are outside the dominant pattern, or the existence of multiple over-expressed patterns to improve relative protein abundance estimates. It is a research-driven approach that utilizes the objectives of the experiment, defined in the context of a standard statistical hypothesis, to identify a set of peptides exhibiting similar statistical behavior relating to a protein. This approach infers that changes in relative protein abundance can be used as a surrogate for changes in function, without necessarily taking into account the effect of differential post-translational modifications, processing, or splicing in altering protein function. We verify the approach using a dilution study from mouse plasma samples and demonstrate that BP-Quant achieves similar accuracy as the current state-of-the-art methods at proteoform identification with significantly better specificity. BP-Quant is available as a MatLab ® and R packages at https://github.com/PNNL-Comp-Mass-Spec/BP-Quant.

  12. A global classification of coastal flood hazard climates associated with large-scale oceanographic forcing.

    Rueda, Ana; Vitousek, Sean; Camus, Paula; Tomás, Antonio; Espejo, Antonio; Losada, Inigo J; Barnard, Patrick L; Erikson, Li H; Ruggiero, Peter; Reguero, Borja G; Mendez, Fernando J

    2017-07-11

    Coastal communities throughout the world are exposed to numerous and increasing threats, such as coastal flooding and erosion, saltwater intrusion and wetland degradation. Here, we present the first global-scale analysis of the main drivers of coastal flooding due to large-scale oceanographic factors. Given the large dimensionality of the problem (e.g. spatiotemporal variability in flood magnitude and the relative influence of waves, tides and surge levels), we have performed a computer-based classification to identify geographical areas with homogeneous climates. Results show that 75% of coastal regions around the globe have the potential for very large flooding events with low probabilities (unbounded tails), 82% are tide-dominated, and almost 49% are highly susceptible to increases in flooding frequency due to sea-level rise.

  13. Infrastructure for Large-Scale Quality-Improvement Projects: Early Lessons from North Carolina Improving Performance in Practice

    Newton, Warren P.; Lefebvre, Ann; Donahue, Katrina E.; Bacon, Thomas; Dobson, Allen

    2010-01-01

    Introduction: Little is known regarding how to accomplish large-scale health care improvement. Our goal is to improve the quality of chronic disease care in all primary care practices throughout North Carolina. Methods: Methods for improvement include (1) common quality measures and shared data system; (2) rapid cycle improvement principles; (3)…

  14. Psychometric properties of the Portuguese version of the Global Transformational Leadership (GTL scale

    Patrícia van Beveren

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to adapt and consequently validate theGlobal Transformational Leadershipmeasuring scale (GTL. The scale was therefore applied to a sample of 456 members of 70 work groups, belonging to 26 organizations. The factorial structure of the scale was analysed through the exploratory factor analysis (EFA and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA, with the sample being split in two equal parts: EFA was conducted in both sub-samples and CFA was applied in the second sub-sample. The internal consistency was evaluated via Cronbach's alpha and the nomological validity was analysed via the evaluation of the GTL's correlations with both team-level autonomy and quality of group experience. The results revealed the presence of a unidimensional scale with a good level of internal consistency. Regarding the nomological validity, the results pointed to hypothetical relations, since the GTL showed positive correlations with the variables considered. Thus, the Portuguese version of the GTL is presented as a useful instrument for evaluating transformational leadership.

  15. Large-scale distribution patterns of mangrove nematodes: A global meta-analysis.

    Brustolin, Marco C; Nagelkerken, Ivan; Fonseca, Gustavo

    2018-05-01

    Mangroves harbor diverse invertebrate communities, suggesting that macroecological distribution patterns of habitat-forming foundation species drive the associated faunal distribution. Whether these are driven by mangrove biogeography is still ambiguous. For small-bodied taxa, local factors and landscape metrics might be as important as macroecology. We performed a meta-analysis to address the following questions: (1) can richness of mangrove trees explain macroecological patterns of nematode richness? and (2) do local landscape attributes have equal or higher importance than biogeography in structuring nematode richness? Mangrove areas of Caribbean-Southwest Atlantic, Western Indian, Central Indo-Pacific, and Southwest Pacific biogeographic regions. We used random-effects meta-analyses based on natural logarithm of the response ratio (lnRR) to assess the importance of macroecology (i.e., biogeographic regions, latitude, longitude), local factors (i.e., aboveground mangrove biomass and tree richness), and landscape metrics (forest area and shape) in structuring nematode richness from 34 mangroves sites around the world. Latitude, mangrove forest area, and forest shape index explained 19% of the heterogeneity across studies. Richness was higher at low latitudes, closer to the equator. At local scales, richness increased slightly with landscape complexity and decreased with forest shape index. Our results contrast with biogeographic diversity patterns of mangrove-associated taxa. Global-scale nematode diversity may have evolved independently of mangrove tree richness, and diversity of small-bodied metazoans is probably more closely driven by latitude and associated climates, rather than local, landscape, or global biogeographic patterns.

  16. "Annotated Lectures": Student-Instructor Interaction in Large-Scale Global Education

    Roger Diehl

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available We describe an "Annotated Lectures" system, which will be used in a global virtual teaching and student collaboration event on embodied intelligence presented by the University of Zurich. The lectures will be broadcasted via video-conference to lecture halls of different universities around the globe. Among other collaboration features, an "Annotated Lectures" system will be implemented in a 3D collaborative virtual environment and used by the participating students to make annotations to the video-recorded lectures, which will be sent to and answered by their supervisors, and forwarded to the lecturers in an aggregated way. The "Annotated Lectures" system aims to overcome the issues of limited studentinstructor interaction in large-scale education, and to foster an intercultural and multidisciplinary discourse among students who review the lectures in a group. After presenting the concept of the "Annotated Lectures" system, we discuss a prototype version including a description of the technical components and its expected benefit for large-scale global education.

  17. Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Class-specific Primary Production at a Global Scale

    Rousseaux, Cecile; Gregg, Watson

    2014-01-01

    Phytoplankton is responsible for over half of the net primary production on earth. The knowledge on the contribution of various phytoplankton groups to the total primary production is still poorly understood. Data from satellite observations suggest that for upwelling regions, photosynthetic rates by microplankton is higher than that of nanoplankton but that when the spatial extent is considered, the production by nanoplankton is comparable or even larger than microplankton. Here, we used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of 4 phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. Globally, diatoms were the group that contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production (approx. 50%) followed by coccolithophores and chlorophytes. Primary production by diatoms was highest in high latitude (>45 deg) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We assessed the effects of climate variability on the class-specific primary production using global (i.e. Multivariate El Nino Index, MEI) and 'regional' climate indices (e.g. Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability. These results provide a modeling and data assimilation perspective to phytoplankton partitioning of primary production and contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of the carbon cycle in the oceans at a global scale.

  18. Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Class-Specific Primary Production at a Global Scale

    Rousseaux, Cecile Severine; Gregg, Watson W.

    2014-01-01

    We used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of 4 phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. First we assessed the contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production at a global scale for the period 1998-2011. Globally, diatoms were the group that contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production (50, the equivalent of 20 PgC y-1. Coccolithophores and chlorophytes each contributed to 20 (7 PgC y-1 of the total primary production and cyanobacteria represented about 10 (4 PgC y(sub-1) of the total primary production. Primary production by diatoms was highest in high latitude (45) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We then assessed interannual variability of this group-specific primary production over the period 1998-2011. Globally the annual relative contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production varied by maximum 4 (1-2 PgC y-1. We assessed the effects of climate variability on the class-specific primary production using global (i.e. Multivariate El Nio Index, MEI) and regional climate indices (e.g. Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability as indicated by significant correlation (p 0.05) between the MEI and the class-specific primary production from all groups except coccolithophores. In the Atlantic, climate variability as indicated by NAO was significantly correlated to the primary production of 2 out of the 4 groups in the North Central Atlantic (diatomscyanobacteria) and in the North Atlantic (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). We found that climate variability as indicated by SAM had only a limited effect on the class-specific primary production in the Southern Ocean. These results provide a modeling and

  19. The Lifespan Self-Esteem Scale: Initial Validation of a New Measure of Global Self-Esteem.

    Harris, Michelle A; Donnellan, M Brent; Trzesniewski, Kali H

    2018-01-01

    This article introduces the Lifespan Self-Esteem Scale (LSE), a short measure of global self-esteem suitable for populations drawn from across the lifespan. Many existing measures of global self-esteem cannot be used across multiple developmental periods due to changes in item content, response formats, and other scale characteristics. This creates a need for a new lifespan scale so that changes in global self-esteem over time can be studied without confounding maturational changes with alterations in the measure. The LSE is a 4-item measure with a 5-point response format using items inspired by established self-esteem scales. The scale is essentially unidimensional and internally consistent, and it converges with existing self-esteem measures across ages 5 to 93 (N = 2,714). Thus, the LSE appears to be a useful measure of global self-esteem suitable for use across the lifespan as well as contexts where a short measure is desirable, such as populations with short attention spans or large projects assessing multiple constructs. Moreover, the LSE is one of the first global self-esteem scales to be validated for children younger than age 8, which provides the opportunity to broaden the field to include research on early formation and development of global self-esteem, an area that has previously been limited.

  20. Very small glaciers under climate change: from the local to the global scale

    Huss, M.; Fischer, M.

    2015-12-01

    Very small glaciers (climate archive. Very small glaciers have generally shorter response times than valley glaciers and their mass balance is strongly dependent on snow redistribution processes. Worldwide glacier monitoring has focused on medium-sized to large glaciers leaving us with a relatively limited understanding of the behavior of very small glaciers. With warming climate there is an increasing concern that very small glaciers might be the first to disappear. Already in the next decades this might result in the complete deglaciation of mountain ranges with glacier equilibrium lines close to the highest peaks, such as in the Rocky Mountains, the European Alps, the Andes or parts of High Mountain Asia. In this contribution, we present a comprehensive modelling framework to assess past and future changes in very small glaciers at the mountain-range scale. Among other processes our model accounts for snow redistribution, changes in glacier geometry and dynamic changes in debris-coverage, and computes e.g. distributed mass balance, englacial temperature and proglacial runoff. Detailed glacier projections until 2060 are shown for the Swiss Alps based on new data sets, and the 21st century contribution of all very small glaciers worldwide to sea-level rise is quantified using a global model. Grid-based modelling of surface mass balance and retreat for 1133 very small glaciers in Switzerland indicates that 70% of them will completely vanish within the next 25 years. However, a few avalanche-fed glaciers at low elevation might be able to survive even substantial atmospheric warming. We find relatively high static and dynamic sensitivities for gently-sloping glaciers. At the global scale, glaciers presently smaller than 1 km2 make up for only 0.7% of total ice volume but account for 6.7% of sea-level rise contribution during the period 2015-2025. This indicates that very small glaciers are a non-negligible component of global glacier change, at least in the near

  1. Diversification and intensification of agricultural adaptation from global to local scales

    Chen, Minjie; Wichmann, Bruno; Luckert, Marty; Winowiecki, Leigh; Förch, Wiebke

    2018-01-01

    Smallholder farming systems are vulnerable to a number of challenges, including continued population growth, urbanization, income disparities, land degradation, decreasing farm size and productivity, all of which are compounded by uncertainty of climatic patterns. Understanding determinants of smallholder farming practices is critical for designing and implementing successful interventions, including climate change adaptation programs. We examine two dimensions wherein smallholder farmers may adapt agricultural practices; through intensification (i.e., adopt more practices) or diversification (i.e. adopt different practices). We use data on 5314 randomly sampled households located in 38 sites in 15 countries across four regions (East and West Africa, South Asia, and Central America). We estimate empirical models designed to assess determinants of both intensification and diversification of adaptation activities at global scales. Aspects of adaptive capacity that are found to increase intensification of adaptation globally include variables associated with access to information and human capital, financial considerations, assets, household infrastructure and experience. In contrast, there are few global drivers of adaptive diversification, with a notable exception being access to weather information, which also increases adaptive intensification. Investigating reasons for adaptation indicate that conditions present in underdeveloped markets provide the primary impetus for adaptation, even in the context of climate change. We also compare determinants across spatial scales, which reveals a variety of local avenues through which policy interventions can relax economic constraints and boost agricultural adaptation for both intensification and diversification. For example, access to weather information does not affect intensification adaptation in Africa, but is significant at several sites in Bangladesh and India. Moreover, this information leads to diversification of

  2. Diversification and intensification of agricultural adaptation from global to local scales.

    Minjie Chen

    Full Text Available Smallholder farming systems are vulnerable to a number of challenges, including continued population growth, urbanization, income disparities, land degradation, decreasing farm size and productivity, all of which are compounded by uncertainty of climatic patterns. Understanding determinants of smallholder farming practices is critical for designing and implementing successful interventions, including climate change adaptation programs. We examine two dimensions wherein smallholder farmers may adapt agricultural practices; through intensification (i.e., adopt more practices or diversification (i.e. adopt different practices. We use data on 5314 randomly sampled households located in 38 sites in 15 countries across four regions (East and West Africa, South Asia, and Central America. We estimate empirical models designed to assess determinants of both intensification and diversification of adaptation activities at global scales. Aspects of adaptive capacity that are found to increase intensification of adaptation globally include variables associated with access to information and human capital, financial considerations, assets, household infrastructure and experience. In contrast, there are few global drivers of adaptive diversification, with a notable exception being access to weather information, which also increases adaptive intensification. Investigating reasons for adaptation indicate that conditions present in underdeveloped markets provide the primary impetus for adaptation, even in the context of climate change. We also compare determinants across spatial scales, which reveals a variety of local avenues through which policy interventions can relax economic constraints and boost agricultural adaptation for both intensification and diversification. For example, access to weather information does not affect intensification adaptation in Africa, but is significant at several sites in Bangladesh and India. Moreover, this information leads to

  3. Evaluation of biochar powder on oxygen supply efficiency and global warming potential during mainstream large-scale aerobic composting.

    He, Xueqin; Chen, Longjian; Han, Lujia; Liu, Ning; Cui, Ruxiu; Yin, Hongjie; Huang, Guangqun

    2017-12-01

    This study investigated the effects of biochar powder on oxygen supply efficiency and global warming potential (GWP) in the large-scale aerobic composting pattern which includes cyclical forced-turning with aeration at the bottom of composting tanks in China. A 55-day large-scale aerobic composting experiment was conducted in two different groups without and with 10% biochar powder addition (by weight). The results show that biochar powder improves the holding ability of oxygen, and the duration time (O 2 >5%) is around 80%. The composting process with above pattern significantly reduce CH 4 and N 2 O emissions compared to the static or turning-only styles. Considering the average GWP of the BC group was 19.82% lower than that of the CK group, it suggests that rational addition of biochar powder has the potential to reduce the energy consumption of turning, improve effectiveness of the oxygen supply, and reduce comprehensive greenhouse effects. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  4. Global adaptation in networks of selfish components: emergent associative memory at the system scale.

    Watson, Richard A; Mills, Rob; Buckley, C L

    2011-01-01

    In some circumstances complex adaptive systems composed of numerous self-interested agents can self-organize into structures that enhance global adaptation, efficiency, or function. However, the general conditions for such an outcome are poorly understood and present a fundamental open question for domains as varied as ecology, sociology, economics, organismic biology, and technological infrastructure design. In contrast, sufficient conditions for artificial neural networks to form structures that perform collective computational processes such as associative memory/recall, classification, generalization, and optimization are well understood. Such global functions within a single agent or organism are not wholly surprising, since the mechanisms (e.g., Hebbian learning) that create these neural organizations may be selected for this purpose; but agents in a multi-agent system have no obvious reason to adhere to such a structuring protocol or produce such global behaviors when acting from individual self-interest. However, Hebbian learning is actually a very simple and fully distributed habituation or positive feedback principle. Here we show that when self-interested agents can modify how they are affected by other agents (e.g., when they can influence which other agents they interact with), then, in adapting these inter-agent relationships to maximize their own utility, they will necessarily alter them in a manner homologous with Hebbian learning. Multi-agent systems with adaptable relationships will thereby exhibit the same system-level behaviors as neural networks under Hebbian learning. For example, improved global efficiency in multi-agent systems can be explained by the inherent ability of associative memory to generalize by idealizing stored patterns and/or creating new combinations of subpatterns. Thus distributed multi-agent systems can spontaneously exhibit adaptive global behaviors in the same sense, and by the same mechanism, as with the organizational

  5. A human-scale perspective on global warming: Zero emission year and personal quotas

    Rojas, Maisa; Mac Lean, Claudia

    2017-01-01

    This article builds on the premise that human consumption of goods, food and transport are the ultimate drivers of climate change. However, the nature of the climate change problem (well described as a tragedy of the commons) makes it difficult for individuals to recognise their personal duty to implement behavioural changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, this article aims to analyse the climate change issue from a human-scale perspective, in which each of us has a clearly defined personal quota of CO2 emissions that limits our activity and there is a finite time during which CO2 emissions must be eliminated to achieve the “well below 2°C” warming limit set by the Paris Agreement of 2015 (COP21). Thus, this work’s primary contribution is to connect an equal per capita fairness approach to a global carbon budget, linking personal levels with planetary levels. Here, we show that a personal quota of 5.0 tons of CO2 yr-1 p-1 is a representative value for both past and future emissions; for this level of a constant per-capita emissions and without considering any mitigation, the global accumulated emissions compatible with the “well below 2°C” and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2030 and 2050, respectively. These are references years that provide an order of magnitude of the time that is left to reverse the global warming trend. More realistic scenarios that consider a smooth transition toward a zero-emission world show that the global accumulated emissions compatible with the “well below 2°C” and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2040 and 2080, respectively. Implications of this paper include a return to personal responsibility following equity principles among individuals, and a definition of boundaries to the personal emissions of CO2. PMID:28628676

  6. Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change

    Greve, Peter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2018-03-01

    Changes in regional water availability belong to the most crucial potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are highly uncertain. It is thus of key importance for stakeholders to assess the possible implications of different global temperature thresholds on these quantities. Using a subset of climate model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we derive here the sensitivity of regional changes in precipitation and in precipitation minus evapotranspiration to global temperature changes. The simulations span the full range of available emission scenarios, and the sensitivities are derived using a modified pattern scaling approach. The applied approach assumes linear relationships on global temperature changes while thoroughly addressing associated uncertainties via resampling methods. This allows us to assess the full distribution of the simulations in a probabilistic sense. Northern high-latitude regions display robust responses towards wetting, while subtropical regions display a tendency towards drying but with a large range of responses. Even though both internal variability and the scenario choice play an important role in the overall spread of the simulations, the uncertainty stemming from the climate model choice usually accounts for about half of the total uncertainty in most regions. We additionally assess the implications of limiting global mean temperature warming to values below (i) 2 K or (ii) 1.5 K (as stated within the 2015 Paris Agreement). We show that opting for the 1.5 K target might just slightly influence the mean response, but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes in regional water availability.

  7. A human-scale perspective on global warming: Zero emission year and personal quotas.

    de la Fuente, Alberto; Rojas, Maisa; Mac Lean, Claudia

    2017-01-01

    This article builds on the premise that human consumption of goods, food and transport are the ultimate drivers of climate change. However, the nature of the climate change problem (well described as a tragedy of the commons) makes it difficult for individuals to recognise their personal duty to implement behavioural changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, this article aims to analyse the climate change issue from a human-scale perspective, in which each of us has a clearly defined personal quota of CO2 emissions that limits our activity and there is a finite time during which CO2 emissions must be eliminated to achieve the "well below 2°C" warming limit set by the Paris Agreement of 2015 (COP21). Thus, this work's primary contribution is to connect an equal per capita fairness approach to a global carbon budget, linking personal levels with planetary levels. Here, we show that a personal quota of 5.0 tons of CO2 yr-1 p-1 is a representative value for both past and future emissions; for this level of a constant per-capita emissions and without considering any mitigation, the global accumulated emissions compatible with the "well below 2°C" and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2030 and 2050, respectively. These are references years that provide an order of magnitude of the time that is left to reverse the global warming trend. More realistic scenarios that consider a smooth transition toward a zero-emission world show that the global accumulated emissions compatible with the "well below 2°C" and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2040 and 2080, respectively. Implications of this paper include a return to personal responsibility following equity principles among individuals, and a definition of boundaries to the personal emissions of CO2.

  8. Forty years of improvements in European air quality: regional policy-industry interactions with global impacts

    M. Crippa

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The EDGARv4.3.1 (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research global anthropogenic emissions inventory of gaseous (SO2, NOx, CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds and NH3 and particulate (PM10, PM2.5, black and organic carbon air pollutants for the period 1970–2010 is used to develop retrospective air pollution emissions scenarios to quantify the roles and contributions of changes in energy consumption and efficiency, technology progress and end-of-pipe emission reduction measures and their resulting impact on health and crop yields at European and global scale. The reference EDGARv4.3.1 emissions include observed and reported changes in activity data, fuel consumption and air pollution abatement technologies over the past 4 decades, combined with Tier 1 and region-specific Tier 2 emission factors. Two further retrospective scenarios assess the interplay of policy and industry. The highest emission STAG_TECH scenario assesses the impact of the technology and end-of-pipe reduction measures in the European Union, by considering historical fuel consumption, along with a stagnation of technology with constant emission factors since 1970, and assuming no further abatement measures and improvement imposed by European emission standards. The lowest emission STAG_ENERGY scenario evaluates the impact of increased fuel consumption by considering unchanged energy consumption since the year 1970, but assuming the technological development, end-of-pipe reductions, fuel mix and energy efficiency of 2010. Our scenario analysis focuses on the three most important and most regulated sectors (power generation, manufacturing industry and road transport, which are subject to multi-pollutant European Union Air Quality regulations. Stagnation of technology and air pollution reduction measures at 1970 levels would have led to 129 % (or factor 2.3 higher SO2, 71 % higher NOx and 69 % higher PM2.5 emissions in Europe (EU27, demonstrating the large

  9. Globalization

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  10. Globalization

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  11. Intervention studies for improving global health and health care: An important arena for epidemiologists

    Gunnar Kvåle

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Marginalised populations in many low- and middle-income countries experience an increasing burden of disease, in sub-Saharan Africa to a large extent due to faltering health systems and serious HIV epidemics. Also other poverty related diseases (PRDs are prevalent, especially respiratory and diarrhoeal diseases in children, malnutrition, maternal and perinatal health problems, tuberculosis and malaria. Daily, nearly 30,000 children under the age of 5 die, most from preventable causes, and 8,000 people die from HIV infections. In spite of the availability of powerful preventive and therapeutic tools for combating these PRDs, their implementation, especially in terms of equitable delivery, leaves much to be desired. The research community must address this tragic gap between knowledge and implementation. Epidemiologists have a very important role to play in conducting studies on diseases that account for the largest share of the global disease burden. A shift of focus of epidemiologic research towards intervention studies addressing health problems of major public health importance for disadvantaged population groups is needed. There is a need to generate an evidence-base for interventions that can be implemented on a large scale; this can result in increased funding of health promotion programs as well as enable rational prioritization and integration between different health interventions. This will require close and synergetic teamwork between epidemiologists and other professions across disciplines and sectors. In this way epidemiologists can contribute significantly to improve health and optimise health care delivery for marginalized populations.

  12. The Global-Scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) Mission

    Eastes, R. W.; McClintock, W. E.; Burns, A. G.; Anderson, D. N.; Andersson, L.; Codrescu, M.; Correira, J. T.; Daniell, R. E.; England, S. L.; Evans, J. S.; Harvey, J.; Krywonos, A.; Lumpe, J. D.; Richmond, A. D.; Rusch, D. W.; Siegmund, O.; Solomon, S. C.; Strickland, D. J.; Woods, T. N.; Aksnes, A.; Budzien, S. A.; Dymond, K. F.; Eparvier, F. G.; Martinis, C. R.; Oberheide, J.

    2017-10-01

    The Earth's thermosphere and ionosphere constitute a dynamic system that varies daily in response to energy inputs from above and from below. This system can exhibit a significant response within an hour to changes in those inputs, as plasma and fluid processes compete to control its temperature, composition, and structure. Within this system, short wavelength solar radiation and charged particles from the magnetosphere deposit energy, and waves propagating from the lower atmosphere dissipate. Understanding the global-scale response of the thermosphere-ionosphere ( T-I) system to these drivers is essential to advancing our physical understanding of coupling between the space environment and the Earth's atmosphere. Previous missions have successfully determined how the "climate" of the T-I system responds. The Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) mission will determine how the "weather" of the T-I responds, taking the next step in understanding the coupling between the space environment and the Earth's atmosphere. Operating in geostationary orbit, the GOLD imaging spectrograph will measure the Earth's emissions from 132 to 162 nm. These measurements will be used image two critical variables—thermospheric temperature and composition, near 160 km—on the dayside disk at half-hour time scales. At night they will be used to image the evolution of the low latitude ionosphere in the same regions that were observed earlier during the day. Due to the geostationary orbit being used the mission observes the same hemisphere repeatedly, allowing the unambiguous separation of spatial and temporal variability over the Americas.

  13. Improving the psychological evaluation of exercise referral: Psychometric properties of the Exercise Referral Quality of Life Scale

    Charlotte Hilton

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available There is a growing need to assess the psychological outcomes of exercise referral and the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence has called for the routine assessment of life-quality. However, a quality of life scale specific to the requirements of exercise referral is currently unavailable. Therefore, the aim of this study was to produce a quality of life measure for this purpose. The Exercise Referral Quality of Life Scale is a 22-item measure comprising three domains: mental and physical health, injury pain and illness and physical activity facilitators. Exploratory factor analysis determined the initial factor structure and was subsequently confirmed by confirmatory factor analysis. Additional scale properties were also assessed. The scale contributes to the global need for improved consistent psychological outcome assessment of exercise referral.

  14. Do pressure ulcer risk assessment scales improve clinical practice?

    Jan Kottner

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Jan Kottner1, Katrin Balzer21Department of Nursing Science, Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Germany; 2Nursing Research Group, Institute for Social Medicine, Universitätsklinikum Schleswig-Holstein, Lübeck, GermanyAbstract: Standardized assessment instruments are deemed important for estimating pressure ulcer risk. Today, more than 40 so-called pressure ulcer risk assessment scales are available but still there is an ongoing debate about their usefulness. From a measurement point of view pressure ulcer (PU risk assessment scales have serious limitations. Empirical evidence supporting the validity of PU risk assessment scale scores is weak and obtained scores contain varying amounts of measurement error. The concept of pressure ulcer risk is strongly related to the general health status and severity of illness. A clinical impact due do the application of these scales could also not be demonstrated. It is questionable whether completion of standardized pressure ulcer risk scales in clinical practice is really needed.Keywords: Braden pressure ulcer, prevention, risk assessment, nursing assessment, predictive value, clinical effectiveness, review

  15. Novel polymeric phosphonate scale inhibitors for improved squeeze treatment lifetimes

    Jackson, G.E.; Poynton, N.; McLaughlin, K.; Clark, D.R.

    1996-12-31

    New patented chemistry has provided an exciting discovery which may be used to reduce costs in scale squeeze applications. Phosphomethylated polyamines (PMPAs) have been found to possess outstanding adsorption-desorption properties which generate long squeeze lifetimes. This paper describes the core-flood tests and modelling work, which highlight these properties, plus additional scale inhibition performance studies to demonstrate the all-round capabilities of this chemistry for squeeze treatments. An example of a PMPA is used to show the extremely viable adsorption and desorption isotherms. These illustrate the efficient way in which the desorption occurs to minimise the chemical in the returns with a benefit of reduced chemical content in the discharge. The PMPA also demonstrates that both polymer and phosphonate properties can be embraced in a single product (e.g. dual scale control mechanisms) confirming that this chemistry is a true polymeric phosphonate. 13 refs., 12 figs., 1 tab.

  16. Power spectral density and scaling exponent of high frequency global solar radiation sequences

    Calif, Rudy; Schmitt, François G.; Huang, Yongxiang

    2013-04-01

    The part of the solar power production from photovlotaïcs systems is constantly increasing in the electric grids. Solar energy converter devices such as photovoltaic cells are very sensitive to instantaneous solar radiation fluctuations. Thus rapid variation of solar radiation due to changes in the local meteorological condition can induce large amplitude fluctuations of the produced electrical power and reduce the overall efficiency of the system. When large amount of photovoltaic electricity is send into a weak or small electricity network such as island network, the electric grid security can be in jeopardy due to these power fluctuations. The integration of this energy in the electrical network remains a major challenge, due to the high variability of solar radiation in time and space. To palliate these difficulties, it is essential to identify the characteristic of these fluctuations in order to anticipate the eventuality of power shortage or power surge. The objective of this study is to present an approach based on Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) to highlight the scaling properties of global solar irradiance data G(t). The scale of invariance is detected on this dataset using the Empirical Mode Decomposition in association with arbitrary-order Hilbert spectral analysis, a generalization of (HHT) or Hilbert Spectral Analysis (HSA). The first step is the EMD, consists in decomposing the normalized global solar radiation data G'(t) into several Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMF) Ci(t) without giving an a priori basis. Consequently, the normalized original solar radiation sequence G'(t) can be written as a sum of Ci(t) with a residual rn. From all IMF modes, a joint PDF P(f,A) of locally and instantaneous frequency f and amplitude A, is estimated. To characterize the scaling behavior in amplitude-frequency space, an arbitrary-order Hilbert marginal spectrum is defined to: Iq(f) = 0 P (f,A)A dA (1) with q × 0 In case of scale

  17. Delivering interventions to reduce the global burden of stillbirths: improving service supply and community demand

    Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Darmstadt, Gary L; Haws, Rachel A; Yakoob, Mohammad Yawar; Lawn, Joy E

    2009-01-01

    impact of the wide-scale implementation of these strategies on stillbirth rates. Strategies to improve quality of care by upgrading the skills of community cadres have shown demonstrable impact on perinatal mortality, particularly in conjunction with health systems strengthening and facilitation of referrals. Neonatal resuscitation training for physicians and other health workers shows potential to prevent many neonatal deaths currently misclassified as stillbirths. Perinatal audit systems, which aim to improve quality of care by identifying deficiencies in care, are a quality improvement measure that shows some evidence of benefit for changes in clinical practice that prevent stillbirths, and are strongly recommended wherever practical, whether as hospital case review or as confidential enquiry at district or national level. Conclusion Delivering interventions to reduce the global burden of stillbirths requires action at all levels of the health system. Packages of interventions should be tailored to local conditions, including local levels and causes of stillbirth, accessibility of care and health system resources and provider skill. Antenatal care can potentially serve as a platform to deliver interventions to improve maternal nutrition, promote behaviour change to reduce harmful exposures and risk of infections, screen for and treat risk factors, and encourage skilled attendance at birth. Following the example of high-income countries, improving intrapartum monitoring for fetal distress and access to Caesarean section in low-/middle-income countries appears to be key to reducing intrapartum stillbirth. In remote or low-resource settings, families and communities can be galvanised to demand and seek quality care through financial incentives and health promotion efforts of local cadres of health workers, though these interventions often require simultaneous health systems strengthening. Perinatal audit can aid in the development of better standards of care, improving

  18. Object detection based on improved color and scale invariant features

    Chen, Mengyang; Men, Aidong; Fan, Peng; Yang, Bo

    2009-10-01

    A novel object detection method which combines color and scale invariant features is presented in this paper. The detection system mainly adopts the widely used framework of SIFT (Scale Invariant Feature Transform), which consists of both a keypoint detector and descriptor. Although SIFT has some impressive advantages, it is not only computationally expensive, but also vulnerable to color images. To overcome these drawbacks, we employ the local color kernel histograms and Haar Wavelet Responses to enhance the descriptor's distinctiveness and computational efficiency. Extensive experimental evaluations show that the method has better robustness and lower computation costs.

  19. A scaling study of the step scaling function of quenched QCD with improved gauge actions

    Takeda, S.; Aoki, S.; Fukugita, M.; Ishikawa, K-I.; Ishizuka, N.; Iwasaki, Y.; Kanaya, K.; Kaneko, T.; Kuramashi, Y.; Okawa, M.; Taniguchi, Y.; Ukawa, A.; Yoshie, T.

    2005-01-01

    We study the scaling behavior of the step scaling function for SU(3) gauge theory, employing the Iwasaki gauge action and the Luescher-Weisz gauge action. In particular, we test the choice of boundary counter terms and apply a perturbative procedure for removal of lattice artifacts for the simulation results in the extrapolation procedure. We confirm the universality of the step scaling functions at both weak and strong coupling regions. We also measure the low energy scale ratio with the Iwasaki action, and confirm its universality

  20. Enablers and Barriers to Large-Scale Uptake of Improved Solid Fuel Stoves: A Systematic Review

    Puzzolo, Elisa; Stanistreet, Debbi; Pope, Daniel; Bruce, Nigel G.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Globally, 2.8 billion people rely on household solid fuels. Reducing the resulting adverse health, environmental, and development consequences will involve transitioning through a mix of clean fuels and improved solid fuel stoves (IS) of demonstrable effectiveness. To date, achieving uptake of IS has presented significant challenges. Objectives: We performed a systematic review of factors that enable or limit large-scale uptake of IS in low- and middle-income countries. Methods: We conducted systematic searches through multidisciplinary databases, specialist websites, and consulting experts. The review drew on qualitative, quantitative, and case studies and used standardized methods for screening, data extraction, critical appraisal, and synthesis. We summarized our findings as “factors” relating to one of seven domains—fuel and technology characteristics; household and setting characteristics; knowledge and perceptions; finance, tax, and subsidy aspects; market development; regulation, legislation, and standards; programmatic and policy mechanisms—and also recorded issues that impacted equity. Results: We identified 31 factors influencing uptake from 57 studies conducted in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. All domains matter. Although factors such as offering technologies that meet household needs and save fuel, user training and support, effective financing, and facilitative government action appear to be critical, none guarantee success: All factors can be influential, depending on context. The nature of available evidence did not permit further prioritization. Conclusions: Achieving adoption and sustained use of IS at a large scale requires that all factors, spanning household/community and program/societal levels, be assessed and supported by policy. We propose a planning tool that would aid this process and suggest further research to incorporate an evaluation of effectiveness. Citation: Rehfuess EA, Puzzolo E, Stanistreet D, Pope D, Bruce

  1. A new synoptic scale resolving global climate simulation using the Community Earth System Model

    Small, R. Justin; Bacmeister, Julio; Bailey, David; Baker, Allison; Bishop, Stuart; Bryan, Frank; Caron, Julie; Dennis, John; Gent, Peter; Hsu, Hsiao-ming; Jochum, Markus; Lawrence, David; Muñoz, Ernesto; diNezio, Pedro; Scheitlin, Tim; Tomas, Robert; Tribbia, Joseph; Tseng, Yu-heng; Vertenstein, Mariana

    2014-12-01

    High-resolution global climate modeling holds the promise of capturing planetary-scale climate modes and small-scale (regional and sometimes extreme) features simultaneously, including their mutual interaction. This paper discusses a new state-of-the-art high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation that was performed with these goals in mind. The atmospheric component was at 0.25° grid spacing, and ocean component at 0.1°. One hundred years of "present-day" simulation were completed. Major results were that annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific and El-Niño Southern Oscillation variability were well simulated compared to standard resolution models. Tropical and southern Atlantic SST also had much reduced bias compared to previous versions of the model. In addition, the high resolution of the model enabled small-scale features of the climate system to be represented, such as air-sea interaction over ocean frontal zones, mesoscale systems generated by the Rockies, and Tropical Cyclones. Associated single component runs and standard resolution coupled runs are used to help attribute the strengths and weaknesses of the fully coupled run. The high-resolution run employed 23,404 cores, costing 250 thousand processor-hours per simulated year and made about two simulated years per day on the NCAR-Wyoming supercomputer "Yellowstone."

  2. The MUSIC of galaxy clusters - II. X-ray global properties and scaling relations

    Biffi, V.; Sembolini, F.; De Petris, M.; Valdarnini, R.; Yepes, G.; Gottlöber, S.

    2014-03-01

    We present the X-ray properties and scaling relations of a large sample of clusters extracted from the Marenostrum MUltidark SImulations of galaxy Clusters (MUSIC) data set. We focus on a sub-sample of 179 clusters at redshift z ˜ 0.11, with 3.2 × 1014 h-1 M⊙ mass. We employed the X-ray photon simulator PHOX to obtain synthetic Chandra observations and derive observable-like global properties of the intracluster medium (ICM), as X-ray temperature (TX) and luminosity (LX). TX is found to slightly underestimate the true mass-weighted temperature, although tracing fairly well the cluster total mass. We also study the effects of TX on scaling relations with cluster intrinsic properties: total (M500 and gas Mg,500 mass; integrated Compton parameter (YSZ) of the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) thermal effect; YX = Mg,500 TX. We confirm that YX is a very good mass proxy, with a scatter on M500-YX and YSZ-YX lower than 5 per cent. The study of scaling relations among X-ray, intrinsic and SZ properties indicates that simulated MUSIC clusters reasonably resemble the self-similar prediction, especially for correlations involving TX. The observational approach also allows for a more direct comparison with real clusters, from which we find deviations mainly due to the physical description of the ICM, affecting TX and, particularly, LX.

  3. Scaling up Corporate Social Investments in Education: Five Strategies That Work. Global Views. Policy Paper 2012-01

    van Fleet, Justin W.

    2012-01-01

    Scaling up good corporate social investment practices in developing countries is crucial to realizing the "Education for All" and "Millennium Development Goals". Yet very few corporate social investments have the right mix of vision, financing, cross-sector engagement and leadership to come to scale. Globally, 67 million…

  4. Large-scale groundwater modeling using global datasets: A test case for the Rhine-Meuse basin

    Sutanudjaja, E.H.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Jong, S.M. de; Geer, F.C. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    Large-scale groundwater models involving aquifers and basins of multiple countries are still rare due to a lack of hydrogeological data which are usually only available in developed countries. In this study, we propose a novel approach to construct large-scale groundwater models by using global

  5. Local to Global Scale Time Series Analysis of US Dryland Degradation Using Landsat, AVHRR, and MODIS

    Washington-Allen, R. A.; Ramsey, R. D.; West, N. E.; Kulawardhana, W.; Reeves, M. C.; Mitchell, J. E.; Van Niel, T. G.

    2011-12-01

    Drylands cover 41% of the terrestrial land surface and annually generate $1 trillion in ecosystem goods and services for 38% of the global population, yet estimates of the global extent of Dryland degradation is uncertain with a range of 10 - 80%. It is currently understood that Drylands exhibit topological complexity including self-organization of parameters of different levels-of-organization, e.g., ecosystem and landscape parameters such as soil and vegetation pattern and structure, that gradually or discontinuously shift to multiple basins of attraction in response to herbivory, fire, and climatic drivers at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Our research has shown that at large geographic scales, contemporaneous time series of 10 to 20 years for response and driving variables across two or more spatial scales is required to replicate and differentiate between the impact of climate and land use activities such as commercial grazing. For example, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a major driver of Dryland net primary productivity (NPP), biodiversity, and ecological resilience with a 10-year return interval, thus 20 years of data are required to replicate its impact. Degradation is defined here as a change in physiognomic composition contrary to management goals, a persistent reduction in vegetation response, e.g., NPP, accelerated soil erosion, a decline in soil quality, and changes in landscape configuration and structure that lead to a loss of ecosystem function. Freely available Landsat, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradimeter (MODIS) archives of satellite imagery exist that provide local to global spatial coverage and time series between 1972 to the present from which proxies of land degradation can be derived. This paper presents time series assessments between 1972 and 2011 of US Dryland degradation including early detection of dynamic regime shifts in the Mojave and landscape pattern and

  6. Scaling Up Improved Legume Technologies in Tanzania (CIFSRF ...

    The project team will train at least 30 hub agro dealers on the technologies so they can instruct a larger number of smaller-scale agro dealers operating across the target regions. Research partners ... Addressing Africa's unmet need for family planning by intensifying sexual and reproductive and adolescent health research.

  7. Atomic scale simulations for improved CRUD and fuel performance modeling

    Andersson, Anders David Ragnar [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Cooper, Michael William Donald [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-01-06

    A more mechanistic description of fuel performance codes can be achieved by deriving models and parameters from atomistic scale simulations rather than fitting models empirically to experimental data. The same argument applies to modeling deposition of corrosion products on fuel rods (CRUD). Here are some results from publications in 2016 carried out using the CASL allocation at LANL.

  8. Estimate of the global-scale joule heating rates in the thermosphere due to time mean currents

    Roble, R.G.; Matsushita, S.

    1975-01-01

    An estimate of the global-scale joule heating rates in the thermosphere is made based on derived global equivalent overhead electric current systems in the dynamo region during geomagnetically quiet and disturbed periods. The equivalent total electric field distribution is calculated from Ohm's law. The global-scale joule heating rates are calculated for various monthly average periods in 1965. The calculated joule heating rates maximize at high latitudes in the early evening and postmidnight sectors. During geomagnetically quiet times the daytime joule heating rates are considerably lower than heating by solar EUV radiation. However, during geomagnetically disturbed periods the estimated joule heating rates increase by an order of magnitude and can locally exceed the solar EUV heating rates. The results show that joule heating is an important and at times the dominant energy source at high latitudes. However, the global mean joule heating rates calculated near solar minimum are generally small compared to the global mean solar EUV heating rates. (auth)

  9. Global-scale attribution of anthropogenic and natural dust sources and their emission rates based on MODIS Deep Blue aerosol products

    Ginoux, Paul; Prospero, Joseph M.; Gill, Thomas E.; Hsu, N. Christina; Zhao, Ming

    2012-09-01

    Our understanding of the global dust cycle is limited by a dearth of information about dust sources, especially small-scale features which could account for a large fraction of global emissions. Here we present a global-scale high-resolution (0.1°) mapping of sources based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue estimates of dust optical depth in conjunction with other data sets including land use. We ascribe dust sources to natural and anthropogenic (primarily agricultural) origins, calculate their respective contributions to emissions, and extensively compare these products against literature. Natural dust sources globally account for 75% of emissions; anthropogenic sources account for 25%. North Africa accounts for 55% of global dust emissions with only 8% being anthropogenic, mostly from the Sahel. Elsewhere, anthropogenic dust emissions can be much higher (75% in Australia). Hydrologic dust sources (e.g., ephemeral water bodies) account for 31% worldwide; 15% of them are natural while 85% are anthropogenic. Globally, 20% of emissions are from vegetated surfaces, primarily desert shrublands and agricultural lands. Since anthropogenic dust sources are associated with land use and ephemeral water bodies, both in turn linked to the hydrological cycle, their emissions are affected by climate variability. Such changes in dust emissions can impact climate, air quality, and human health. Improved dust emission estimates will require a better mapping of threshold wind velocities, vegetation dynamics, and surface conditions (soil moisture and land use) especially in the sensitive regions identified here, as well as improved ability to address small-scale convective processes producing dust via cold pool (haboob) events frequent in monsoon regimes.

  10. Transcultural Endocrinology: Adapting Type-2 Diabetes Guidelines on a Global Scale.

    Nieto-Martínez, Ramfis; González-Rivas, Juan P; Florez, Hermes; Mechanick, Jeffrey I

    2016-12-01

    Type-2 diabetes (T2D) needs to be prevented and treated effectively to reduce its burden and consequences. White papers, such as evidence-based clinical practice guidelines (CPG) and their more portable versions, clinical practice algorithms and clinical checklists, may improve clinical decision-making and diabetes outcomes. However, CPG are underused and poorly validated. Protocols that translate and implement these CPG are needed. This review presents the global dimension of T2D, details the importance of white papers in the transculturalization process, compares relevant international CPG, analyzes cultural variables, and summarizes translation strategies that can improve care. Specific protocols and algorithmic tools are provided. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance

    Tang, G.; Bartlein, P. J.

    2012-01-01

    Water balance models of simple structure are easier to grasp and more clearly connect cause and effect than models of complex structure. Such models are essential for studying large spatial scale land surface water balance in the context of climate and land cover change, both natural and anthropogenic. This study aims to (i) develop a large spatial scale water balance model by modifying a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), and (ii) test the model's performance in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture and surface runoff for the coterminous United States (US). Toward these ends, we first introduced development of the "LPJ-Hydrology" (LH) model by incorporating satellite-based land covers into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM instead of dynamically simulating them. We then ran LH using historical (1982-2006) climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells. The simulated ET, soil moisture and surface runoff were compared to existing sets of observed or simulated data for the US. The results indicated that LH captures well the variation of monthly actual ET (R2 = 0.61, p 0.46, p 0.52) with observed values over the years 1982-2006, respectively. The modeled spatial patterns of annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data. Compared to its predecessor, LH simulates better monthly stream flow in winter and early spring by incorporating effects of solar radiation on snowmelt. Overall, this study proves the feasibility of incorporating satellite-based land-covers into a DGVM for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance. LH developed in this study should be a useful tool for studying effects of climate and land cover change on land surface hydrology at large spatial scales.

  12. Existence and global exponential stability of periodic solutions for n-dimensional neutral dynamic equations on time scales.

    Li, Bing; Li, Yongkun; Zhang, Xuemei

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, by using the existence of the exponential dichotomy of linear dynamic equations on time scales and the theory of calculus on time scales, we study the existence and global exponential stability of periodic solutions for a class of n-dimensional neutral dynamic equations on time scales. We also present an example to illustrate the feasibility of our results. The results of this paper are completely new and complementary to the previously known results even in both the case of differential equations (time scale [Formula: see text]) and the case of difference equations (time scale [Formula: see text]).

  13. Global and exponential attractors of the three dimensional viscous primitive equations of large-scale moist atmosphere

    You, Bo; Li, Fang

    2016-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the long-time behavior of solutions for the three dimensional viscous primitive equations of large-scale moist atmosphere. We prove the existence of a global attractor for the three dimensional viscous primitive equations of large-scale moist atmosphere by asymptotic a priori estimate and construct an exponential attractor by using the smoothing property of the semigroup generated by the three dimensional viscous primitive equations of large-scale moist atmosphere...

  14. Picosecond scale experimental verification of a globally convergent algorithm for a coefficient inverse problem

    Klibanov, Michael V; Pantong, Natee; Fiddy, Michael A; Schenk, John; Beilina, Larisa

    2010-01-01

    A globally convergent algorithm by the first and third authors for a 3D hyperbolic coefficient inverse problem is verified on experimental data measured in the picosecond scale regime. Quantifiable images of dielectric abnormalities are obtained. The total measurement timing of a 100 ps pulse for one detector location was 1.2 ns with 20 ps (=0.02 ns) time step between two consecutive readings. Blind tests have consistently demonstrated an accurate imaging of refractive indexes of dielectric abnormalities. At the same time, it is shown that a modified gradient method is inapplicable to this kind of experimental data. This inverse algorithm is also applicable to other types of imaging modalities, e.g. acoustics. Potential applications are in airport security, imaging of land mines, imaging of defects in non-distractive testing, etc

  15. Development OF A Multi-Scale Framework for Mapping Global Evapotranspiration

    Hain, Christopher R.; Anderson, Martha C.; Schull, Mitchell; Neale, Christopher; Zhan, Xiwu

    2017-01-01

    As the worlds water resources come under increasing tension due to dual stressors of climate change and population growth, accurate knowledge of water consumption through evapotranspiration (ET) over a range in spatial scales will be critical in developing adaptation strategies. Remote sensing methods for monitoring consumptive water use (e.g, ET) are becoming increasingly important, especially in areas of significant water and food insecurity. One method to estimate ET from satellite-based methods, the Atmosphere Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model uses the change in mid-morning land surface temperature to estimate the partitioning of sensible and latent heat fluxes which are then used to estimate daily ET. This presentation will outline several recent enhancements to the ALEXI modeling system, with a focus on global ET and drought monitoring.

  16. Plant diversity increases with the strength of negative density dependence at the global scale

    LaManna, Joseph A.; Mangan, Scott A.; Alonso, Alfonso; Bourg, Norman; Brockelman, Warren Y.; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Chang, Li-Wan; Chiang, Jyh-Min; Chuyong, George B.; Clay, Keith; Condit, Richard; Cordell, Susan; Davies, Stuart J.; Furniss, Tucker J.; Giardina, Christian P.; Gunatilleke, I.A.U. Nimal; Gunatilleke, C.V. Savitri; He, Fangliang; Howe, Robert W.; Hubbell, Stephen P.; Hsieh, Chang-Fu; Inman-Narahari, Faith M.; Janik, David; Johnson, Daniel J.; Kenfack, David; Korte, Lisa; Kral, Kamil; Larson, Andrew J.; Lutz, James A.; McMahon, Sean M.; McShea, William J.; Memiaghe, Herve R.; Nathalang, Anuttara; Novotny, Vojtech; Ong, Perry S.; Orwig, David A.; Ostertag, Rebecca; Parker, Geoffrey G.; Phillips, Richard P.; Sack, Lawren; Sun, I-Fang; Tello, J. Sebastian; Thomas, Duncan W.; Turner, Benjamin L.; Vela Diaz, Dilys M.; Vrska, Tomas; Weiblen, George D.; Wolf, Amy; Yap, Sandra; Myers, Jonathan A.

    2017-01-01

    Theory predicts that higher biodiversity in the tropics is maintained by specialized interactions among plants and their natural enemies that result in conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD). By using more than 3000 species and nearly 2.4 million trees across 24 forest plots worldwide, we show that global patterns in tree species diversity reflect not only stronger CNDD at tropical versus temperate latitudes but also a latitudinal shift in the relationship between CNDD and species abundance. CNDD was stronger for rare species at tropical versus temperate latitudes, potentially causing the persistence of greater numbers of rare species in the tropics. Our study reveals fundamental differences in the nature of local-scale biotic interactions that contribute to the maintenance of species diversity across temperate and tropical communities.

  17. Tracking global change at local scales: Phenology for science, outreach, conservation

    Sharron, Ed; Mitchell, Brian

    2011-06-01

    A Workshop Exploring the Use of Phenology Studies for Public Engagement; New Orleans, Louisiana, 14 March 2011 ; During a George Wright Society Conference session that was led by the USA National Phenology Network (USANPN; http://www.usanpn.org) and the National Park Service (NPS), professionals from government organizations, nonprofits, and higher-education institutions came together to explore the possibilities of using phenology monitoring to engage the public. One of the most visible effects of global change on ecosystems is shifts in phenology: the timing of biological events such as leafing and flowering, maturation of agricultural plants, emergence of insects, and migration of birds. These shifts are already occurring and reflect biological responses to climate change at local to regional scales. Changes in phenology have important implications for species ecology and resource management and, because they are place-based and tangible, serve as an ideal platform for education, outreach, and citizen science.

  18. The Centre for Mountain Studies: Active From Scottish to Global Scales

    Amy Woolvin

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The Centre for Mountain Studies (CMS, located at Perth College, University of the Highlands and Islands, Scotland, hosts the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization Chair in Sustainable Mountain Development. Since 2000, CMS staff and students have been active in research and knowledge exchange activities at scales from the local—in Scotland—to the global (Price 2011; Glass et al 2013. In addition to hosting the Mountains of our Future Earth conference (Perth III, recent international activities have focused on climate change, biosphere reserves, social innovation, and stakeholder engagement in biodiversity research. Projects in Scotland have mainly addressed land management and local communities. The CMS also runs a part-time online MSc program in Sustainable Mountain Development.

  19. Integrated modelling of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change on the global scale

    Schaldach, R.; Koch, J.; Alcamo, J.

    2009-04-01

    In many cases land-use activities go hand in hand with substantial modifications of the physical and biological cover of the Earth's surface, resulting in direct effects on energy and matter fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. For instance, the conversion of forest to cropland is changing climate relevant surface parameters (e.g. albedo) as well as evapotranspiration processes and carbon flows. In turn, human land-use decisions are also influenced by environmental processes. Changing temperature and precipitation patterns for example are important determinants for location and intensity of agriculture. Due to these close linkages, processes of land-use and related land-cover change should be considered as important components in the construction of Earth System models. A major challenge in modelling land-use change on the global scale is the integration of socio-economic aspects and human decision making with environmental processes. One of the few global approaches that integrates functional components to represent both anthropogenic and environmental aspects of land-use change, is the LandSHIFT model. It simulates the spatial and temporal dynamics of the human land-use activities settlement, cultivation of food crops and grazing management, which compete for the available land resources. The rational of the model is to regionalize the demands for area intensive commodities (e.g. crop production) and services (e.g. space for housing) from the country-level to a global grid with the spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. The modelled land-use decisions within the agricultural sector are influenced by changing climate and the resulting effects on biomass productivity. Currently, this causal chain is modelled by integrating results from the process-based vegetation model LPJmL model for changing crop yields and net primary productivity of grazing land. Model output of LandSHIFT is a time series of grid maps with land-use/land-cover information

  20. Globalization

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  1. The use of global rating scales for OSCEs in veterinary medicine.

    Emma K Read

    Full Text Available OSCEs (Objective Structured Clinical Examinations are widely used in health professions to assess clinical skills competence. Raters use standardized binary checklists (CL or multi-dimensional global rating scales (GRS to score candidates performing specific tasks. This study assessed the reliability of CL and GRS scores in the assessment of veterinary students, and is the first study to demonstrate the reliability of GRS within veterinary medical education. Twelve raters from two different schools (6 from University of Calgary [UCVM] and 6 from Royal (Dick School of Veterinary Studies [R(DSVS] were asked to score 12 students (6 from each school. All raters assessed all students (video recordings during 4 OSCE stations (bovine haltering, gowning and gloving, equine bandaging and skin suturing. Raters scored students using a CL, followed by the GRS. Novice raters (6 R(DSVS were assessed independently of expert raters (6 UCVM. Generalizability theory (G theory, analysis of variance (ANOVA and t-tests were used to determine the reliability of rater scores, assess any between school differences (by student, by rater, and determine if there were differences between CL and GRS scores. There was no significant difference in rater performance with use of the CL or the GRS. Scores from the CL were significantly higher than scores from the GRS. The reliability of checklist scores were .42 and .76 for novice and expert raters respectively. The reliability of the global rating scale scores were .7 and .86 for novice and expert raters respectively. A decision study (D-study showed that once trained using CL, GRS could be utilized to reliably score clinical skills in veterinary medicine with both novice and experienced raters.

  2. Cloud Geospatial Analysis Tools for Global-Scale Comparisons of Population Models for Decision Making

    Hancher, M.; Lieber, A.; Scott, L.

    2017-12-01

    The volume of satellite and other Earth data is growing rapidly. Combined with information about where people are, these data can inform decisions in a range of areas including food and water security, disease and disaster risk management, biodiversity, and climate adaptation. Google's platform for planetary-scale geospatial data analysis, Earth Engine, grants access to petabytes of continually updating Earth data, programming interfaces for analyzing the data without the need to download and manage it, and mechanisms for sharing the analyses and publishing results for data-driven decision making. In addition to data about the planet, data about the human planet - population, settlement and urban models - are now available for global scale analysis. The Earth Engine APIs enable these data to be joined, combined or visualized with economic or environmental indicators such as nighttime lights trends, global surface water, or climate projections, in the browser without the need to download anything. We will present our newly developed application intended to serve as a resource for government agencies, disaster response and public health programs, or other consumers of these data to quickly visualize the different population models, and compare them to ground truth tabular data to determine which model suits their immediate needs. Users can further tap into the power of Earth Engine and other Google technologies to perform a range of analysis from simple statistics in custom regions to more complex machine learning models. We will highlight case studies in which organizations around the world have used Earth Engine to combine population data with multiple other sources of data, such as water resources and roads data, over deep stacks of temporal imagery to model disease risk and accessibility to inform decisions.

  3. Regional and urban down scaling of global climate scenarios for health impact assessments

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Garzon, A.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    In this contribution we have used global climate RCP IPCC scenarios to produce climate and air pollution maps at regional (25 km resolution) and urban scale with 200 m spatial resolution over Europe and five European cities in order to investigate the impact on meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations . We have used the very well known mesoscale meteorological model WRF-Chem (NOAA, US). We have used 2011 as control past year and two RCP scenarios from CCSM global climate model with 4.5 W/m2 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2030, 2050 and 2100 years. After running WRF-Chem model, using the boundary conditions provided by RCP scenarios with the emissions of 2011, we have performed a detailed down scaling process using CALMET diagnostic model to obtain a full 200 m spatial resolution map of five European cities (London, Antwerp, Madrid, Milan, and Helsinki). We will show the results and the health impacts for future RCP IPCC climate scenarios in comparison with the 2011 control year information for climate and health indicators. Finally, we have also investigated the impact of the aerosol effects in the short wave radiation mean value. Two simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed over Europe in 2010. A baseline simulation without any feedback effects and a second simulation including the direct effects affecting the solar radiation reaching the surface as well as the indirect aerosol effect with potential impacts on increasing or decreasing the precipitation rates. Aerosol effects produce an increase of incoming radiation over Atlantic Ocean (up to 70%) because the prescribed aerosol concentrations in the WRF-Chem without feedbacks is substantially higher than the aerosol concentrations produced when we activate the feedback effects. The decrease in solar radiation in the Sahara area (10%) is found to be produced because the prescribed aerosol concentration in the no feedback simulation is lower than when we activate the feedback effects. (Author)

  4. The population genomics of begomoviruses: global scale population structure and gene flow

    Prasanna HC

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The rapidly growing availability of diverse full genome sequences from across the world is increasing the feasibility of studying the large-scale population processes that underly observable pattern of virus diversity. In particular, characterizing the genetic structure of virus populations could potentially reveal much about how factors such as geographical distributions, host ranges and gene flow between populations combine to produce the discontinuous patterns of genetic diversity that we perceive as distinct virus species. Among the richest and most diverse full genome datasets that are available is that for the dicotyledonous plant infecting genus, Begomovirus, in the Family Geminiviridae. The begomoviruses all share the same whitefly vector, are highly recombinogenic and are distributed throughout tropical and subtropical regions where they seriously threaten the food security of the world's poorest people. Results We focus here on using a model-based population genetic approach to identify the genetically distinct sub-populations within the global begomovirus meta-population. We demonstrate the existence of at least seven major sub-populations that can further be sub-divided into as many as thirty four significantly differentiated and genetically cohesive minor sub-populations. Using the population structure framework revealed in the present study, we further explored the extent of gene flow and recombination between genetic populations. Conclusions Although geographical barriers are apparently the most significant underlying cause of the seven major population sub-divisions, within the framework of these sub-divisions, we explore patterns of gene flow to reveal that both host range differences and genetic barriers to recombination have probably been major contributors to the minor population sub-divisions that we have identified. We believe that the global Begomovirus population structure revealed here could

  5. The Effects of Bursty Bulk Flows on Global-Scale Current Systems

    Yu, Y.; Cao, J.; Fu, H.; Lu, H.; Yao, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Using a global magnetospheric MHD model coupled with a kinetic ring current model, we investigate the effects of magnetotail dynamics, particularly the earthward bursty bulk flows (BBFs) produced by the tail reconnection, on the global-scale current systems. The simulation results indicate that after BBFs brake around X = -10 RE due to the dipolar "magnetic wall," vortices are generated on the edge of the braking region and inside the inner magnetosphere. Each pair of vortex in the inner magnetosphere disturbs the westward ring current to arc radially inward as well as toward high latitudes. The resultant pressure gradient on the azimuthal direction induces region-1 sense field-aligned component from the ring current, which eventually is diverted into the ionosphere at high latitudes, giving rise to a pair of field-aligned current (FAC) eddies in the ionosphere. On the edge of the flow braking region where vortices also emerge, a pair of region-1 sense FACs arises, diverted fromthe cross-tail duskward current, generating a substorm current wedge. This is again attributed to the increase of thermal pressure ahead of the bursty flows turning azimuthally. It is further found that when multiple BBFs, despite their localization, continually and rapidly impinge on the "wall," carrying sufficient tail plasma sheet population toward the Earth, they can lead to the formation of a new ring current. These results indicate the important role that BBFs play in bridging the tail and the inner magnetosphere ring current and bring new insight into the storm-substorm relation.

  6. Simulated global-scale response of the climate system to Dansgaard/Oeschger and Heinrich events

    Claussen, M. [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P-O Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam (Germany); Institute of Physics, Potsdam University, P-O Box 601553, 14415 Potsdam (Germany); Ganopolski, A.; Brovkin, V.; Gerstengarbe, F.W.; Werner, P. [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P-O Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam (Germany)

    2003-11-01

    By using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity we have studied the global-scale response of the glacial climate system during marine isotope stage (MIS) 3 to perturbations at high northern latitudes and the tropics. These perturbations include changes in inland-ice volume over North America, in freshwater flux into the northern North Atlantic and in surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific. The global pattern of temperature series resulting from an experiment in which perturbations of inland ice and freshwater budget are imposed at high northern latitudes only, agree with paleoclimatic reconstructions. In particular, a positive correlation of temperature variations near Greenland and variations in all regions of the Northern Hemisphere and some parts of the southern tropics is found. Over the southern oceans a weak negative correlation appears which is strongest at a time lag of approximately 500 years. Further experimentation with prescribed temperature anomalies applied to the tropical Pacific suggests that perturbation of tropical sea-surface temperatures and hence, the tropical water cycle, is unlikely to have triggered Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) events. However, together with random freshwater anomalies prescribed at high northern latitudes, tropical perturbations would be able to synchronize the occurrence of D/O events via the mechanism of stochastic resonance. (orig.)

  7. An integrated model to simulate sown area changes for major crops at a global scale

    SHIBASAKI; Ryosuke

    2008-01-01

    Dynamics of land use systems have attracted much attention from scientists around the world due to their ecological and socio-economic implications. An integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of four major crops (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) on a global scale is pre- sented. To do so, a crop choice model was developed on the basis of Multinomial Logit (Logit) model to model land users’ decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives with using a crop utility function. A GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted to simulate the crop yields under a given geophysical environment and farming management conditions, while the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model was utilized to estimate crop price in the international market. The crop choice model was linked with the GIS-based EPIC model and the IFPSIM model through data exchange. This integrated model was then validated against the FAO statistical data in 2001-2003 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) global land cover product in 2001. Both validation approaches indicated reliability of the model for ad- dressing the dynamics in agricultural land use and its capability for long-term scenario analysis. Finally, the model application was designed to run over a time period of 30 a, taking the year 2000 as baseline. The model outcomes can help understand and explain the causes, locations and consequences of land use changes, and provide support for land use planning and policy making.

  8. Using isotopes to improve impact and hydrological predictions of land-surface schemes in global climate models

    McGuffie, K.; Henderson-Sellers, A.

    2002-01-01

    Global climate model (GCM) predictions of the impact of large-scale land-use change date back to 1984 as do the earliest isotopic studies of large-basin hydrology. Despite this coincidence in interest and geography, with both papers focussed on the Amazon, there have been few studies that have tried to exploit isotopic information with the goal of improving climate model simulations of the land-surface. In this paper we analyze isotopic results from the IAEA global data base specifically with the goal of identifying signatures of potential value for improving global and regional climate model simulations of the land-surface. Evaluation of climate model predictions of the impacts of deforestation of the Amazon has been shown to be of significance by recent results which indicate impacts occurring distant from the Amazon i.e. tele-connections causing climate change elsewhere around the globe. It is suggested that these could be similar in magnitude and extent to the global impacts of ENSO events. Validation of GCM predictions associated with Amazonian deforestation are increasingly urgently required because of the additional effects of other aspects of climate change, particularly synergies occurring between forest removal and greenhouse gas increases, especially CO 2 . Here we examine three decades distributions of deuterium excess across the Amazon and use the results to evaluate the relative importance of the fractionating (partial evaporation) and non-fractionating (transpiration) processes. These results illuminate GCM scenarios of importance to the regional climate and hydrology: (i) the possible impact of increased stomatal resistance in the rainforest caused by higher levels of atmospheric CO2 [4]; and (ii) the consequences of the combined effects of deforestation and global warming on the regions climate and hydrology

  9. Improving Global Gross Primary Productivity Estimates by Computing Optimum Light Use Efficiencies Using Flux Tower Data

    Madani, Nima; Kimball, John S.; Running, Steven W.

    2017-11-01

    In the light use efficiency (LUE) approach of estimating the gross primary productivity (GPP), plant productivity is linearly related to absorbed photosynthetically active radiation assuming that plants absorb and convert solar energy into biomass within a maximum LUE (LUEmax) rate, which is assumed to vary conservatively within a given biome type. However, it has been shown that photosynthetic efficiency can vary within biomes. In this study, we used 149 global CO2 flux towers to derive the optimum LUE (LUEopt) under prevailing climate conditions for each tower location, stratified according to model training and test sites. Unlike LUEmax, LUEopt varies according to heterogeneous landscape characteristics and species traits. The LUEopt data showed large spatial variability within and between biome types, so that a simple biome classification explained only 29% of LUEopt variability over 95 global tower training sites. The use of explanatory variables in a mixed effect regression model explained 62.2% of the spatial variability in tower LUEopt data. The resulting regression model was used for global extrapolation of the LUEopt data and GPP estimation. The GPP estimated using the new LUEopt map showed significant improvement relative to global tower data, including a 15% R2 increase and 34% root-mean-square error reduction relative to baseline GPP calculations derived from biome-specific LUEmax constants. The new global LUEopt map is expected to improve the performance of LUE-based GPP algorithms for better assessment and monitoring of global terrestrial productivity and carbon dynamics.

  10. Seventh meeting of the Global Alliance to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis: reaching the vision by scaling up, scaling down, and reaching out

    2014-01-01

    This report summarizes the 7th meeting of the Global Alliance to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GAELF), Washington DC, November 18–19, 2012. The theme, “A Future Free of Lymphatic Filariasis: Reaching the Vision by Scaling Up, Scaling Down and Reaching Out”, emphasized new strategies and partnerships necessary to reach the 2020 goal of elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public-health problem. PMID:24450283

  11. Modeling urbanization patterns at a global scale with generative adversarial networks

    Albert, A. T.; Strano, E.; Gonzalez, M.

    2017-12-01

    Current demographic projections show that, in the next 30 years, global population growth will mostly take place in developing countries. Coupled with a decrease in density, such population growth could potentially double the land occupied by settlements by 2050. The lack of reliable and globally consistent socio-demographic data, coupled with the limited predictive performance underlying traditional urban spatial explicit models, call for developing better predictive methods, calibrated using a globally-consistent dataset. Thus, richer models of the spatial interplay between the urban built-up land, population distribution and energy use are central to the discussion around the expansion and development of cities, and their impact on the environment in the context of a changing climate. In this talk we discuss methods for, and present an analysis of, urban form, defined as the spatial distribution of macroeconomic quantities that characterize a city, using modern machine learning methods and best-available remote-sensing data for the world's largest 25,000 cities. We first show that these cities may be described by a small set of patterns in radial building density, nighttime luminosity, and population density, which highlight, to first order, differences in development and land use across the world. We observe significant, spatially-dependent variance around these typical patterns, which would be difficult to model using traditional statistical methods. We take a first step in addressing this challenge by developing CityGAN, a conditional generative adversarial network model for simulating realistic urban forms. To guide learning and measure the quality of the simulated synthetic cities, we develop a specialized loss function for GAN optimization that incorporates standard spatial statistics used by urban analysis experts. Our framework is a stark departure from both the standard physics-based approaches in the literature (that view urban forms as fractals with a

  12. Sources of uncertainties in modelling black carbon at the global scale

    E. Vignati

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Our understanding of the global black carbon (BC cycle is essentially qualitative due to uncertainties in our knowledge of its properties. This work investigates two source of uncertainties in modelling black carbon: those due to the use of different schemes for BC ageing and its removal rate in the global Transport-Chemistry model TM5 and those due to the uncertainties in the definition and quantification of the observations, which propagate through to both the emission inventories, and the measurements used for the model evaluation.

    The schemes for the atmospheric processing of black carbon that have been tested with the model are (i a simple approach considering BC as bulk aerosol and a simple treatment of the removal with fixed 70% of in-cloud black carbon concentrations scavenged by clouds and removed when rain is present and (ii a more complete description of microphysical ageing within an aerosol dynamics model, where removal is coupled to the microphysical properties of the aerosol, which results in a global average of 40% in-cloud black carbon that is scavenged in clouds and subsequently removed by rain, thus resulting in a longer atmospheric lifetime. This difference is reflected in comparisons between both sets of modelled results and the measurements. Close to the sources, both anthropogenic and vegetation fire source regions, the model results do not differ significantly, indicating that the emissions are the prevailing mechanism determining the concentrations and the choice of the aerosol scheme does not influence the levels. In more remote areas such as oceanic and polar regions the differences can be orders of magnitude, due to the differences between the two schemes. The more complete description reproduces the seasonal trend of the black carbon observations in those areas, although not always the magnitude of the signal, while the more simplified approach underestimates black carbon concentrations by orders of

  13. Can limited area NWP and/or RCM models improve on large scales inside their domain?

    Mesinger, Fedor; Veljovic, Katarina

    2017-04-01

    In a paper in press in Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics at the time this abstract is being written, Mesinger and Veljovic point out four requirements that need to be fulfilled by a limited area model (LAM), be it in NWP or RCM environment, to improve on large scales inside its domain. First, NWP/RCM model needs to be run on a relatively large domain. Note that domain size in quite inexpensive compared to resolution. Second, NWP/RCM model should not use more forcing at its boundaries than required by the mathematics of the problem. That means prescribing lateral boundary conditions only at its outside boundary, with one less prognostic variable prescribed at the outflow than at the inflow parts of the boundary. Next, nudging towards the large scales of the driver model must not be used, as it would obviously be nudging in the wrong direction if the nested model can improve on large scales inside its domain. And finally, the NWP/RCM model must have features that enable development of large scales improved compared to those of the driver model. This would typically include higher resolution, but obviously does not have to. Integrations showing improvements in large scales by LAM ensemble members are summarized in the mentioned paper in press. Ensemble members referred to are run using the Eta model, and are driven by ECMWF 32-day ensemble members, initialized 0000 UTC 4 October 2012. The Eta model used is the so-called "upgraded Eta," or "sloping steps Eta," which is free of the Gallus-Klemp problem of weak flow in the lee of the bell-shaped topography, seemed to many as suggesting the eta coordinate to be ill suited for high resolution models. The "sloping steps" in fact represent a simple version of the cut cell scheme. Accuracy of forecasting the position of jet stream winds, chosen to be those of speeds greater than 45 m/s at 250 hPa, expressed by Equitable Threat (or Gilbert) skill scores adjusted to unit bias (ETSa) was taken to show the skill at large scales

  14. Improving the large scale purification of the HIV microbicide, griffithsin.

    Fuqua, Joshua L; Wanga, Valentine; Palmer, Kenneth E

    2015-02-22

    Griffithsin is a broad spectrum antiviral lectin that inhibits viral entry and maturation processes through binding clusters of oligomannose glycans on viral envelope glycoproteins. An efficient, scaleable manufacturing process for griffithsin active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) is essential for particularly cost-sensitive products such as griffithsin -based topical microbicides for HIV-1 prevention in resource poor settings. Our previously published purification method used ceramic filtration followed by two chromatography steps, resulting in a protein recovery of 30%. Our objective was to develop a scalable purification method for griffithsin expressed in Nicotiana benthamiana plants that would increase yield, reduce production costs, and simplify manufacturing techniques. Considering the future need to transfer griffithsin manufacturing technology to resource poor areas, we chose to focus modifying the purification process, paying particular attention to introducing simple, low-cost, and scalable procedures such as use of temperature, pH, ion concentration, and filtration to enhance product recovery. We achieved >99% pure griffithsin API by generating the initial green juice extract in pH 4 buffer, heating the extract to 55°C, incubating overnight with a bentonite MgCl2 mixture, and final purification with Capto™ multimodal chromatography. Griffithsin extracted with this protocol maintains activity comparable to griffithsin purified by the previously published method and we are able to recover a substantially higher yield: 88 ± 5% of griffithsin from the initial extract. The method was scaled to produce gram quantities of griffithsin with high yields, low endotoxin levels, and low purification costs maintained. The methodology developed to purify griffithsin introduces and develops multiple tools for purification of recombinant proteins from plants at an industrial scale. These tools allow for robust cost-effective production and purification of

  15. Effect of brief training on reliability and applicability of Global Assessment of functioning scale by Psychiatric clinical officers in Uganda.

    Abbo, C; Okello, E S; Nakku, J

    2013-03-01

    The Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) is the standard method and an essential tool for representing a clinician's judgment of a patient's overall level of psychological, social and occupational functioning. As such, it is probably the single most widely used method for assessing impairment among the patients with psychiatric illnesses. To assess the effects of one-hour training on application of the GAF by Psychiatric Clinical Officers' in a Ugandan setting. Five Psychiatrists and five Psychiatric Clinical Officers (PCOs) or Assistant Medical Officers who hold a 2 year diploma in Clinical Psychiatry were randomly selected to independently rate a video-recorded psychiatric interview according to the DSM IV-TR. The PCOs were then offered a one-hour training on how to rate the GAF scale and asked to rate the video case interview again. All ratings were assigned on the basis of past one year, at admission and current functioning. Interclass correlations (ICC) were computed using two-way mixed models. The ICC between the psychiatrists and the PCOs before training in the past one year, at admission and current functioning were +0.48, +0.51 and +0.59 respectively. After training, the ICC coefficients were +0.60, +0.82 and +0.83. Brief training given to PCOs improved the applications of their ratings of GAF scale to acceptable levels. There is need for formal training to this cadre of psychiatric practitioners in the use of the GAF.

  16. SCALE Graphical Developments for Improved Criticality Safety Analyses

    Barnett, D.L.; Bowman, S.M.; Horwedel, J.E.; Petrie, L.M.

    1999-01-01

    New computer graphic developments at Oak Ridge National Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) are being used to provide visualization of criticality safety models and calculational results as well as tools for criticality safety analysis input preparation. The purpose of this paper is to present the status of current development efforts to continue to enhance the SCALE (Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluations) computer software system. Applications for criticality safety analysis in the areas of 3-D model visualization, input preparation and execution via a graphical user interface (GUI), and two-dimensional (2-D) plotting of results are discussed

  17. Improving Prediction of Large-scale Regime Transitions

    Gyakum, J. R.; Roebber, P.; Bosart, L. F.; Honor, A.; Bunker, E.; Low, Y.; Hart, J.; Bliankinshtein, N.; Kolly, A.; Atallah, E.; Huang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Cool season atmospheric predictability over the CONUS on subseasonal times scales (1-4 weeks) is critically dependent upon the structure, configuration, and evolution of the North Pacific jet stream (NPJ). The NPJ can be perturbed on its tropical side on synoptic time scales by recurving and transitioning tropical cyclones (TCs) and on subseasonal time scales by longitudinally varying convection associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Likewise, the NPJ can be perturbed on its poleward side on synoptic time scales by midlatitude and polar disturbances that originate over the Asian continent. These midlatitude and polar disturbances can often trigger downstream Rossby wave propagation across the North Pacific, North America, and the North Atlantic. The project team is investigating the following multiscale processes and features: the spatiotemporal distribution of cyclone clustering over the Northern Hemisphere; cyclone clustering as influenced by atmospheric blocking and the phases and amplitudes of the major teleconnection indices, ENSO and the MJO; composite and case study analyses of representative cyclone clustering events to establish the governing dynamics; regime change predictability horizons associated with cyclone clustering events; Arctic air mass generation and modification; life cycles of the MJO; and poleward heat and moisture transports of subtropical air masses. A critical component of the study is weather regime classification. These classifications are defined through: the spatiotemporal clustering of surface cyclogenesis; a general circulation metric combining data at 500-hPa and the dynamic tropopause; Self Organizing Maps (SOM), constructed from dynamic tropopause and 850 hPa equivalent potential temperature data. The resultant lattice of nodes is used to categorize synoptic classes and their predictability, as well as to determine the robustness of the CFSv2 model climate relative to observations. Transition pathways between these

  18. Use of a hybrid code for global-scale plasma simulation

    Swift, D.W.

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents a demonstration of the use of a hybrid code to model the Earth's magnetosphere on a global scale. The typical hybrid code calculates the interaction of fully kinetic ions and a massless electron fluid with the magnetic field. This code also includes a fluid ion component to approximate the cold ionospheric plasma that spatially overlaps with the discrete particle component. Other innovative features of the code include a numerically generated curvilinear coordinate system and subcycling of the magnetic field update to the particle push. These innovations allow the code to accommodate disparate time and distance scales. The demonstration is a simulation of the noon meridian plane of the magnetosphere. The code exhibits the formation of fast and slow-mode shocks and tearing reconnection at the magnetopause. New results include particle acceleration in the cusp and nearly field aligned currents linking the cusp and polar ionosphere. The paper also describes a density depletion instability and measures to avoid it. 27 refs., 4 figs

  19. The case for a Supersite for real-time GNSS hazard monitoring on a global scale

    Bar-Sever, Y. E.

    2017-12-01

    Real-time measurements from many hundreds of GNSS tracking sites around the world are publicly available today, and the amount of streaming data is steadily increasing as national agencies densify their local and global infrastructure for natural hazard monitoring and a variety of geodetic, cadastral, and other civil applications. Thousands of such sites can soon be expected on a global scale. It is a challenge to manage and make optimal use of this massive amount of real-time data. We advocate the creation of Supersite(s), in the parlance of the U.N. Global Earth Observation System of Systems (https://www.earthobservations.org/geoss.php), to generate high level real-time data products from the raw GNSS measurements from all available sources (many thousands of sites). These products include: • High rate, real-time positioning time series for assessing rapid crustal motion due to Earthquakes, volcanic activities, land slides, etc. • Co-seismic displacement to help resolve earthquake mechanism and moment magnitude • Real-time total electron content (TEC) fluctuations to augment Dart buoy in detecting and tracking tsunamis • Aggregation of the many disparate raw data dispensation servers (Casters)Recognizing that natural hazards transcend national boundaries in terms of direct and indirect (e.g., economical, security) impact, the benefits from centralized, authoritative processing of GNSS measurements is manifold: • Offers a one-stop shop to less developed nations and institutions for raw and high-level products, in support of research and applications • Promotes the installation of tracking sites and the contribution of data from nations without the ability to process the data • Reduce dependency on local responsible agencies impacted by a natural disaster • Reliable 24/7 operations, independent of voluntary, best effort contributions from good-willing scientific organizationsThe JPL GNSS Real-Time Earthquake and Tsunami (GREAT) Alert has been

  20. Improving Estimation of Betweenness Centrality for Scale-Free Graphs

    Bromberger, Seth A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Klymko, Christine F. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Henderson, Keith A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Pearce, Roger [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Sanders, Geoff [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-11-07

    Betweenness centrality is a graph statistic used to nd vertices that are participants in a large number of shortest paths in a graph. This centrality measure is commonly used in path and network interdiction problems and its complete form requires the calculation of all-pairs shortest paths for each vertex. This leads to a time complexity of O(jV jjEj), which is impractical for large graphs. Estimation of betweenness centrality has focused on performing shortest-path calculations on a subset of randomly- selected vertices. This reduces the complexity of the centrality estimation to O(jSjjEj); jSj < jV j, which can be scaled appropriately based on the computing resources available. An estimation strategy that uses random selection of vertices for seed selection is fast and simple to implement, but may not provide optimal estimation of betweenness centrality when the number of samples is constrained. Our experimentation has identi ed a number of alternate seed-selection strategies that provide lower error than random selection in common scale-free graphs. These strategies are discussed and experimental results are presented.

  1. Large-scale global convection in the mantle beneath Australia from 55 Ma to now

    Zhang, M.

    1999-01-01

    Full text: The global-scale mantle convection cells in the asthenosphere are not geochemically homogeneous. The heterogeneity is most prominently reflected in the isotopic compositions (Pb-Sr-Nd) of the mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB) that are direct partial melts from the underlying asthenosphere. Of particular relevance to Australia's geodynamic evolution from about 100 million years, are the distinctive geochemical signatures of the asthenosphere beneath the Pacific Ocean (Pacific MORB) and Indian Ocean (Indian MORB). Therefore, delineation of the boundary between the two distinct mantle reservoirs and any change in that boundary with time provide information about the patterns of global-scale asthenospheric mantle convection. This information has also allowed us to track large-scale mantle chemical reservoirs such as the distinctive Gondwana lithospheric mantle, and hence better understand the geodynamic evolution of the Australian continent from the time of Gondwana dispersal. Pb-Sr-Nd isotope data for Cenozoic basalts in eastern Australia (Zhang et al, 1999) indicate that Pacific-MORB type isotopic signatures characterise the lava-field basalts (55-14 Ma) in southeastern Australia, whereas Indian-MORB type isotopic signatures characterise younger basalts (6-0 Ma) from northeastern Australia. This discovery helps to constrain the changing locus of the major asthenospheric mantle convection cells represented by the Pacific and Indian MORB sources during and following the breakup of the eastern part of Gondwana, and locates, for the first time, the boundary of these convection cells beneath the Australian continent. This extends previous work in the SW Pacific back-arc basins (eg Hickey-Vargas et al., 1995) and the Southern Ocean (Lanyon et al., 1995) that indicates that the 1- and P-MORB mantle convection cells have been moving in opposite directions since the early Tertiary. These new data also indicate that the Indian-MORB source is a long-term asthenospheric

  2. Enhancing atmospheric mercury research in China to improve the current understanding of the global mercury cycle: the need for urgent and closely coordinated efforts.

    Ci, Zhijia; Zhang, Xiaoshan; Wang, Zhangwei

    2012-06-05

    The current understanding of the global mercury (Hg) cycle remains uncertain because Hg behavior in the environment is very complicated. The special property of Hg causes the atmosphere to be the most important medium for worldwide dispersion and transformation. The source and fate of atmospheric Hg and its interaction with the surface environment are the essential topics in the global Hg cycle. Recent declining measurement trends of Hg in the atmosphere are in apparent conflict with the increasing trends in global anthropogenic Hg emissions. As the single largest country contributor of anthropogenic Hg emission, China's role in the global Hg cycle will become more and more important in the context of the decreasing man-made Hg emission from developed regions. However, much less Hg information in China is available. As a global pollutant which undergoes long-range transport and is persistence in the environment, increasing Hg knowledge in China could not only promote the Hg regulation in this country but also improve the understanding of the fundamental of the global Hg cycle and further push the abatement of this toxin on a global scale. Then the atmospheric Hg research in China may be a breakthrough for improving the current understanding of the global Hg cycle. However, due to the complex behavior of Hg in the atmosphere, a deeper understanding of the atmospheric Hg cycle in China needs greater cooperation across fields.

  3. Global energy efficiency improvement in the log term: a demand- and supply-side perspective

    Graus, W.H.J.; Blomen, E.; Worrell, E.

    2011-01-01

    This study assessed technical potentials for energy efficiency improvement in 2050 in a global context. The reference scenario is based on the World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency 2007 edition and assumptions regarding gross domestic product developments after 2030. In the

  4. Context and scale: Distinctions for improving debates about physician "rationing".

    Tilburt, Jon C; Sulmasy, Daniel P

    2017-08-29

    Important discussions about limiting care based on professional judgment often devolve into heated debates over the place of physicians in bedside rationing. Politics, loaded rhetoric, and ideological caricature from both sides of the rationing debate obscure precise points of disagreement and consensus, and hinder critical dialogue around the obligations and boundaries of professional practice. We propose a way forward by reframing the rationing conversation, distinguishing between the scale of the decision (macro vs. micro) and its context (ordinary allocation vs. extraordinary re-allocation) avoiding the word "rationing." We propose to shift the terminology, using specific, descriptive words to defuse conflict and re-focus the debate towards substantive issues. These distinctions can clarify the real ethical differences at stake and facilitate a more constructive conversation about the clinical and social responsibilities of physicians to use resources ethically at the bedside and their role in allocating medical resources at a societal level.

  5. AGCM hindcasts with SST and other forcings: Responses from global to agricultural scales

    Shah, Kathryn Pierce; Rind, David; Druyan, Leonard; Lonergan, Patrick; Chandler, Mark

    2000-08-01

    Multiple realizations of the 1969-1998 time period have been simulated by the GISS AGCM to explore its responsiveness to accumulated forcings, particularly over sensitive agricultural regions. A microwave radiative transfer postprocessor has produced the AGCM lower tropospheric, tropospheric, and lower stratospheric brightness temperature (Tb) time series for correlations with microwave sounding unit (MSU) time series. AGCM regional surface air temperature and precipitation were also correlated with GISTEMP temperature data and with rain gage data. Seven realizations by the AGCM were forced solely by observed sea surface temperatures. Subsequent runs hindcast January 1969 through April 1998 with an accumulation of forcings: observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), greenhouse gases, stratospheric volcanic aerosols, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone, and tropospheric sulfate and black carbon aerosols. Lower stratospheric Tb correlations between the AGCM and the MSU for 1979-1998 reached as high as 0.93 globally given SST, greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosol, and stratospheric ozone forcings. Midtropospheric Tb correlations reached as high as 0.66 globally and 0.84 across the equatorial, 20°S-20°N band. Oceanic lower tropospheric Tb correlations were less high at 0.59 globally and 0.79 across the equatorial band. Of the sensitive agricultural areas considered, Nordeste in northeastern Brazil was simulated best with midtropospheric Tb correlations up to 0.80. The two other agricultural regions, in Africa and in the northern midlatitudes, suffered from higher levels of non-SST-induced variability. Zimbabwe had a maximum midtropospheric correlation of 0.54, while the U.S. Corn Belt reached only 0.25. Hindcast surface temperatures and precipitation were also correlated with observations, up to 0.46 and 0.63, respectively, for Nordeste. Correlations between AGCM and observed time series improved with addition of certain atmospheric forcings in zonal bands but not in

  6. A global fingerprint of macro-scale changes in urban structure from 1999 to 2009

    Frolking, Steve; Milliman, Tom; Seto, Karen C; Friedl, Mark A

    2013-01-01

    Urban population now exceeds rural population globally, and 60–80% of global energy consumption by households, businesses, transportation, and industry occurs in urban areas. There is growing evidence that built-up infrastructure contributes to carbon emissions inertia, and that investments in infrastructure today have delayed climate cost in the future. Although the United Nations statistics include data on urban population by country and select urban agglomerations, there are no empirical data on built-up infrastructure for a large sample of cities. Here we present the first study to examine changes in the structure of the world’s largest cities from 1999 to 2009. Combining data from two space-borne sensors—backscatter power (PR) from NASA’s SeaWinds microwave scatterometer, and nighttime lights (NL) from NOAA’s defense meteorological satellite program/operational linescan system (DMSP/OLS)—we report large increases in built-up infrastructure stock worldwide and show that cities are expanding both outward and upward. Our results reveal previously undocumented recent and rapid changes in urban areas worldwide that reflect pronounced shifts in the form and structure of cities. Increases in built-up infrastructure are highest in East Asian cities, with Chinese cities rapidly expanding their material infrastructure stock in both height and extent. In contrast, Indian cities are primarily building out and not increasing in verticality. This new dataset will help characterize the structure and form of cities, and ultimately improve our understanding of how cities affect regional-to-global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. (letter)

  7. The role of zonally asymmetric heating in the vertical and temporal structure of the global scale flow fields during FGGE SOP-1

    Paegle, J.; Kalnay, E.; Baker, W. E.

    1981-01-01

    The global scale structure of atmospheric flow is best documented on time scales longer than a few days. Theoretical and observational studies of ultralong waves have emphasized forcing due to global scale variations of topography and surface heat flux, possibly interacting with baroclinically unstable or vertically refracting basic flows. Analyses of SOP-1 data in terms of global scale spherical harmonics is documented with emphasis upon weekly transitions.

  8. Capital investment requirements for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation in power generation on near term to century time scales and global to regional spatial scales

    Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, James; Calvin, Katherine; Kyle, Page

    2014-01-01

    Our paper explores the implication of climate mitigation policy and electricity generation technology performance for capital investment demands by the electric power sector on near term to century time scales. We find that stabilizing GHG emissions will require additional investment in the electricity generation sector over and above investments that would be needed in the absence of climate policy, in the range of 15 to 29 trillion US$ (48–94%) depending on the stringency of climate policy during the period 2015 to 2095 under default technology assumptions. This increase reflects the higher capital intensity of power systems that control emissions as well as increased electrification of the global economy. Limits on the penetration of nuclear and carbon capture and storage technology could increase costs substantially. Energy efficiency improvements can reduce the investment requirement by 18 to 24 trillion US$ (compared to default technology climate policy assumptions), depending on climate policy scenario. We also highlight the implications of different technology evolution scenarios for different regions. Under default technology set, the heaviest investments across scenarios in power generation were observed in China, India, SE Asia and Africa regions with the latter three regions dominating in the second half of the 21st century. - Highlights: • We present electricity generation investment requirement under different scenarios. • A climate policy will lead to substantial increase in investment requirement. • Stringency of climate policy has significant implications for investments. • Technology evolution and performance alter investment requirements significantly. • China, India, Southeast Asia and Africa dominate as investment destinations

  9. Using Random Forest to Improve the Downscaling of Global Livestock Census Data

    Nicolas, Gaëlle; Robinson, Timothy P.; Wint, G. R. William; Conchedda, Giulia; Cinardi, Giuseppina; Gilbert, Marius

    2016-01-01

    Large scale, high-resolution global data on farm animal distributions are essential for spatially explicit assessments of the epidemiological, environmental and socio-economic impacts of the livestock sector. This has been the major motivation behind the development of the Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW) database, which has been extensively used since its first publication in 2007. The database relies on a downscaling methodology whereby census counts of animals in sub-national administrative units are redistributed at the level of grid cells as a function of a series of spatial covariates. The recent upgrade of GLW1 to GLW2 involved automating the processing, improvement of input data, and downscaling at a spatial resolution of 1 km per cell (5 km per cell in the earlier version). The underlying statistical methodology, however, remained unchanged. In this paper, we evaluate new methods to downscale census data with a higher accuracy and increased processing efficiency. Two main factors were evaluated, based on sample census datasets of cattle in Africa and chickens in Asia. First, we implemented and evaluated Random Forest models (RF) instead of stratified regressions. Second, we investigated whether models that predicted the number of animals per rural person (per capita) could provide better downscaled estimates than the previous approach that predicted absolute densities (animals per km2). RF models consistently provided better predictions than the stratified regressions for both continents and species. The benefit of per capita over absolute density models varied according to the species and continent. In addition, different technical options were evaluated to reduce the processing time while maintaining their predictive power. Future GLW runs (GLW 3.0) will apply the new RF methodology with optimized modelling options. The potential benefit of per capita models will need to be further investigated with a better distinction between rural and agricultural

  10. Improving Crop Yield and Nutrient Use Efficiency via Biofertilization—A Global Meta-analysis

    Lukas Schütz

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The application of microbial inoculants (biofertilizers is a promising technology for future sustainable farming systems in view of rapidly decreasing phosphorus stocks and the need to more efficiently use available nitrogen (N. Various microbial taxa are currently used as biofertilizers, based on their capacity to access nutrients from fertilizers and soil stocks, to fix atmospheric nitrogen, to improve water uptake or to act as biocontrol agents. Despite the existence of a considerable knowledge on effects of specific taxa of biofertilizers, a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the performance of biofertilizers with different traits such as phosphorus solubilization and N fixation applied to various crops at a global scale is missing. We conducted a meta-analysis to quantify benefits of biofertilizers in terms of yield increase, nitrogen and phosphorus use efficiency, based on 171 peer reviewed publications that met eligibility criteria. Major findings are: (i the superiority of biofertilizer performance in dry climates over other climatic regions (yield response: dry climate +20.0 ± 1.7%, tropical climate +14.9 ± 1.2%, oceanic climate +10.0 ± 3.7%, continental climate +8.5 ± 2.4%; (ii meta-regression analyses revealed that yield response due to biofertilizer application was generally small at low soil P levels; efficacy increased along higher soil P levels in the order arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF, P solubilizers, and N fixers; (iii meta-regressions showed that the success of inoculation with AMF was greater at low organic matter content and at neutral pH. Our comprehensive analysis provides a basis and guidance for proper choice and application of biofertilizers.

  11. Using Random Forest to Improve the Downscaling of Global Livestock Census Data.

    Gaëlle Nicolas

    Full Text Available Large scale, high-resolution global data on farm animal distributions are essential for spatially explicit assessments of the epidemiological, environmental and socio-economic impacts of the livestock sector. This has been the major motivation behind the development of the Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW database, which has been extensively used since its first publication in 2007. The database relies on a downscaling methodology whereby census counts of animals in sub-national administrative units are redistributed at the level of grid cells as a function of a series of spatial covariates. The recent upgrade of GLW1 to GLW2 involved automating the processing, improvement of input data, and downscaling at a spatial resolution of 1 km per cell (5 km per cell in the earlier version. The underlying statistical methodology, however, remained unchanged. In this paper, we evaluate new methods to downscale census data with a higher accuracy and increased processing efficiency. Two main factors were evaluated, based on sample census datasets of cattle in Africa and chickens in Asia. First, we implemented and evaluated Random Forest models (RF instead of stratified regressions. Second, we investigated whether models that predicted the number of animals per rural person (per capita could provide better downscaled estimates than the previous approach that predicted absolute densities (animals per km2. RF models consistently provided better predictions than the stratified regressions for both continents and species. The benefit of per capita over absolute density models varied according to the species and continent. In addition, different technical options were evaluated to reduce the processing time while maintaining their predictive power. Future GLW runs (GLW 3.0 will apply the new RF methodology with optimized modelling options. The potential benefit of per capita models will need to be further investigated with a better distinction between rural

  12. Improving Crop Yield and Nutrient Use Efficiency via Biofertilization—A Global Meta-analysis

    Schütz, Lukas; Gattinger, Andreas; Meier, Matthias; Müller, Adrian; Boller, Thomas; Mäder, Paul; Mathimaran, Natarajan

    2018-01-01

    The application of microbial inoculants (biofertilizers) is a promising technology for future sustainable farming systems in view of rapidly decreasing phosphorus stocks and the need to more efficiently use available nitrogen (N). Various microbial taxa are currently used as biofertilizers, based on their capacity to access nutrients from fertilizers and soil stocks, to fix atmospheric nitrogen, to improve water uptake or to act as biocontrol agents. Despite the existence of a considerable knowledge on effects of specific taxa of biofertilizers, a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the performance of biofertilizers with different traits such as phosphorus solubilization and N fixation applied to various crops at a global scale is missing. We conducted a meta-analysis to quantify benefits of biofertilizers in terms of yield increase, nitrogen and phosphorus use efficiency, based on 171 peer reviewed publications that met eligibility criteria. Major findings are: (i) the superiority of biofertilizer performance in dry climates over other climatic regions (yield response: dry climate +20.0 ± 1.7%, tropical climate +14.9 ± 1.2%, oceanic climate +10.0 ± 3.7%, continental climate +8.5 ± 2.4%); (ii) meta-regression analyses revealed that yield response due to biofertilizer application was generally small at low soil P levels; efficacy increased along higher soil P levels in the order arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), P solubilizers, and N fixers; (iii) meta-regressions showed that the success of inoculation with AMF was greater at low organic matter content and at neutral pH. Our comprehensive analysis provides a basis and guidance for proper choice and application of biofertilizers. PMID:29375594

  13. Improving Crop Yield and Nutrient Use Efficiency via Biofertilization-A Global Meta-analysis.

    Schütz, Lukas; Gattinger, Andreas; Meier, Matthias; Müller, Adrian; Boller, Thomas; Mäder, Paul; Mathimaran, Natarajan

    2017-01-01

    The application of microbial inoculants (biofertilizers) is a promising technology for future sustainable farming systems in view of rapidly decreasing phosphorus stocks and the need to more efficiently use available nitrogen (N). Various microbial taxa are currently used as biofertilizers, based on their capacity to access nutrients from fertilizers and soil stocks, to fix atmospheric nitrogen, to improve water uptake or to act as biocontrol agents. Despite the existence of a considerable knowledge on effects of specific taxa of biofertilizers, a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the performance of biofertilizers with different traits such as phosphorus solubilization and N fixation applied to various crops at a global scale is missing. We conducted a meta-analysis to quantify benefits of biofertilizers in terms of yield increase, nitrogen and phosphorus use efficiency, based on 171 peer reviewed publications that met eligibility criteria. Major findings are: (i) the superiority of biofertilizer performance in dry climates over other climatic regions (yield response: dry climate +20.0 ± 1.7%, tropical climate +14.9 ± 1.2%, oceanic climate +10.0 ± 3.7%, continental climate +8.5 ± 2.4%); (ii) meta-regression analyses revealed that yield response due to biofertilizer application was generally small at low soil P levels; efficacy increased along higher soil P levels in the order arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), P solubilizers, and N fixers; (iii) meta-regressions showed that the success of inoculation with AMF was greater at low organic matter content and at neutral pH. Our comprehensive analysis provides a basis and guidance for proper choice and application of biofertilizers.

  14. Responding to Globalization: Impacts of Certification on Colombian Small-Scale Coffee Growers

    Ximena Rueda

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Eco-certification of food and other agricultural products has been promoted as a way of making markets work for sustainability. Certification programs offer a price premium to producers who invest in more sustainable practices. The literature on the impacts of certification has focused primarily on the economic benefits farmers perceive from participating in these schemes. These benefits, however, are often subject to price variability, offering only a partial explanation of why farmers join and stay in certification programs. We evaluated the potential of the Rainforest Alliance certification program to foster more resilient social-ecological systems in the face of globalization. Using the case of Santander, Colombia, and a pair-based comparison of 86 households to effectively produce a robust counterfactual, we showed that certification provides important environmental benefits, while improving the well-being of farmers and their communities. Furthermore, the study showed that price premiums are only one of many elements defining the success of certification, particularly important for motivating farmers to join, but less so to explain retention and upgrading. The case of Colombian coffee growers illustrates how the connections between local social-ecological systems and larger global forces can produce more sustainable livelihoods and land uses.

  15. Global analysis of seagrass restoration: the importance of large-scale planting

    van Katwijk, Marieke M.; Thorhaug, Anitra; Marbà , Nú ria; Orth, Robert J.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Kendrick, Gary A.; Althuizen, Inge H. J.; Balestri, Elena; Bernard, Guillaume; Cambridge, Marion L.; Cunha, Alexandra; Durance, Cynthia; Giesen, Wim; Han, Qiuying; Hosokawa, Shinya; Kiswara, Wawan; Komatsu, Teruhisa; Lardicci, Claudio; Lee, Kun-Seop; Meinesz, Alexandre; Nakaoka, Masahiro; O'Brien, Katherine R.; Paling, Erik I.; Pickerell, Chris; Ransijn, Aryan M. A.; Verduin, Jennifer J.

    2015-01-01

    In coastal and estuarine systems, foundation species like seagrasses, mangroves, saltmarshes or corals provide important ecosystem services. Seagrasses are globally declining and their reintroduction has been shown to restore ecosystem functions. However, seagrass restoration is often challenging, given the dynamic and stressful environment that seagrasses often grow in. From our world-wide meta-analysis of seagrass restoration trials (1786 trials), we describe general features and best practice for seagrass restoration. We confirm that removal of threats is important prior to replanting. Reduced water quality (mainly eutrophication), and construction activities led to poorer restoration success than, for instance, dredging, local direct impact and natural causes. Proximity to and recovery of donor beds were positively correlated with trial performance. Planting techniques can influence restoration success. The meta-analysis shows that both trial survival and seagrass population growth rate in trials that survived are positively affected by the number of plants or seeds initially transplanted. This relationship between restoration scale and restoration success was not related to trial characteristics of the initial restoration. The majority of the seagrass restoration trials have been very small, which may explain the low overall trial survival rate (i.e. estimated 37%). Successful regrowth of the foundation seagrass species appears to require crossing a minimum threshold of reintroduced individuals. Our study provides the first global field evidence for the requirement of a critical mass for recovery, which may also hold for other foundation species showing strong positive feedback to a dynamic environment. Synthesis and applications. For effective restoration of seagrass foundation species in its typically dynamic, stressful environment, introduction of large numbers is seen to be beneficial and probably serves two purposes. First, a large-scale planting

  16. Global analysis of seagrass restoration: the importance of large-scale planting

    van Katwijk, Marieke M.

    2015-10-28

    In coastal and estuarine systems, foundation species like seagrasses, mangroves, saltmarshes or corals provide important ecosystem services. Seagrasses are globally declining and their reintroduction has been shown to restore ecosystem functions. However, seagrass restoration is often challenging, given the dynamic and stressful environment that seagrasses often grow in. From our world-wide meta-analysis of seagrass restoration trials (1786 trials), we describe general features and best practice for seagrass restoration. We confirm that removal of threats is important prior to replanting. Reduced water quality (mainly eutrophication), and construction activities led to poorer restoration success than, for instance, dredging, local direct impact and natural causes. Proximity to and recovery of donor beds were positively correlated with trial performance. Planting techniques can influence restoration success. The meta-analysis shows that both trial survival and seagrass population growth rate in trials that survived are positively affected by the number of plants or seeds initially transplanted. This relationship between restoration scale and restoration success was not related to trial characteristics of the initial restoration. The majority of the seagrass restoration trials have been very small, which may explain the low overall trial survival rate (i.e. estimated 37%). Successful regrowth of the foundation seagrass species appears to require crossing a minimum threshold of reintroduced individuals. Our study provides the first global field evidence for the requirement of a critical mass for recovery, which may also hold for other foundation species showing strong positive feedback to a dynamic environment. Synthesis and applications. For effective restoration of seagrass foundation species in its typically dynamic, stressful environment, introduction of large numbers is seen to be beneficial and probably serves two purposes. First, a large-scale planting

  17. Optimal Stomatal Behaviour Around the World: Synthesis of a Global Stomatal Conductance Database and Scaling from Leaf to Ecosystem

    Lin, Y. S.; Medlyn, B. E.; Duursma, R.; Prentice, I. C.; Wang, H.

    2014-12-01

    Stomatal conductance (gs) is a key land surface attribute as it links transpiration, the dominant component of global land evapotranspiration and a key element of the global water cycle, and photosynthesis, the driving force of the global carbon cycle. Despite the pivotal role of gs in predictions of global water and carbon cycles, a global scale database and an associated globally applicable model of gs that allow predictions of stomatal behaviour are lacking. We present a unique database of globally distributed gs obtained in the field for a wide range of plant functional types (PFTs) and biomes. We employed a model of optimal stomatal conductance to assess differences in stomatal behaviour, and estimated the model slope coefficient, g1, which is directly related to the marginal carbon cost of water, for each dataset. We found that g1 varies considerably among PFTs, with evergreen savanna trees having the largest g1 (least conservative water use), followed by C3 grasses and crops, angiosperm trees, gymnosperm trees, and C4 grasses. Amongst angiosperm trees, species with higher wood density had a higher marginal carbon cost of water, as predicted by the theory underpinning the optimal stomatal model. There was an interactive effect between temperature and moisture availability on g1: for wet environments, g1 was largest in high temperature environments, indicated by high mean annual temperature during the period when temperature above 0oC (Tm), but it did not vary with Tm across dry environments. We examine whether these differences in leaf-scale behaviour are reflected in ecosystem-scale differences in water-use efficiency. These findings provide a robust theoretical framework for understanding and predicting the behaviour of stomatal conductance across biomes and across PFTs that can be applied to regional, continental and global-scale modelling of productivity and ecohydrological processes in a future changing climate.

  18. How to scale SaaS business  from local to global markets? : Case of ad servers

    PANDERS, TOMS

    2014-01-01

    This thesis will describe SaaS (Software as a Service) business in a global environment. The prior focus will be to give suggestions of models and good examples of how to scale local business into global markets. The necessary theoretical framework on software product and scalability issues is given. Qualitative research is carried out to find out how the suggested models are adopted among selected ad serving companies. The results from three different companies were analyzed to find similari...

  19. Spatially explicit fate factors of waterborne nitrogen emissions at the global scale

    Cosme, Nuno Miguel Dias; Mayorga, Emilio; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2017-01-01

    water. Spatial aggregation of the FFs at the continental level decreases this variation to 1 order of magnitude or less for all routes. Coastal water residence time was found to show inconsistency and scarcity of literature sources. Improvement of data quality for this parameter is suggested......Purpose: Marine eutrophication impacts due to waterborne nitrogen (N) emissions may vary significantly with their type and location. The environmental fate of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) forms is essential to understand the impacts they may trigger in receiving coastal waters. Current life...... and river basin resolution. Methods: The FF modelling work includes DIN removal processes in both inland (soil and river) and marine compartments. Model input parameters are the removal coefficients extracted from the Global NEWS 2-DIN model and residence time of receiving coastal waters. The resulting FFs...

  20. Building essential biodiversity variables (EBVs) of species distribution and abundance at a global scale.

    Kissling, W Daniel; Ahumada, Jorge A; Bowser, Anne; Fernandez, Miguel; Fernández, Néstor; García, Enrique Alonso; Guralnick, Robert P; Isaac, Nick J B; Kelling, Steve; Los, Wouter; McRae, Louise; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Obst, Matthias; Santamaria, Monica; Skidmore, Andrew K; Williams, Kristen J; Agosti, Donat; Amariles, Daniel; Arvanitidis, Christos; Bastin, Lucy; De Leo, Francesca; Egloff, Willi; Elith, Jane; Hobern, Donald; Martin, David; Pereira, Henrique M; Pesole, Graziano; Peterseil, Johannes; Saarenmaa, Hannu; Schigel, Dmitry; Schmeller, Dirk S; Segata, Nicola; Turak, Eren; Uhlir, Paul F; Wee, Brian; Hardisty, Alex R

    2018-02-01

    Much biodiversity data is collected worldwide, but it remains challenging to assemble the scattered knowledge for assessing biodiversity status and trends. The concept of Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) was introduced to structure biodiversity monitoring globally, and to harmonize and standardize biodiversity data from disparate sources to capture a minimum set of critical variables required to study, report and manage biodiversity change. Here, we assess the challenges of a 'Big Data' approach to building global EBV data products across taxa and spatiotemporal scales, focusing on species distribution and abundance. The majority of currently available data on species distributions derives from incidentally reported observations or from surveys where presence-only or presence-absence data are sampled repeatedly with standardized protocols. Most abundance data come from opportunistic population counts or from population time series using standardized protocols (e.g. repeated surveys of the same population from single or multiple sites). Enormous complexity exists in integrating these heterogeneous, multi-source data sets across space, time, taxa and different sampling methods. Integration of such data into global EBV data products requires correcting biases introduced by imperfect detection and varying sampling effort, dealing with different spatial resolution and extents, harmonizing measurement units from different data sources or sampling methods, applying statistical tools and models for spatial inter- or extrapolation, and quantifying sources of uncertainty and errors in data and models. To support the development of EBVs by the Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON), we identify 11 key workflow steps that will operationalize the process of building EBV data products within and across research infrastructures worldwide. These workflow steps take multiple sequential activities into account, including identification and

  1. Interactions Between Atmospheric Aerosols and Marine Boundary Layer Clouds on Regional and Global Scales

    Wang, Zhen

    Airborne aerosols are crucial atmospheric constituents that are involved in global climate change and human life qualities. Understanding the nature and magnitude of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions is critical in model predictions for atmospheric radiation budget and the water cycle. The interactions depend on a variety of factors including aerosol physicochemical complexity, cloud types, meteorological and thermodynamic regimes and data processing techniques. This PhD work is an effort to quantify the relationships among aerosol, clouds, and precipitation on both global and regional scales by using satellite retrievals and aircraft measurements. The first study examines spatial distributions of conversion rate of cloud water to rainwater in warm maritime clouds over the globe by using NASA A-Train satellite data. This study compares the time scale of the onset of precipitation with different aerosol categories defined by values of aerosol optical depth, fine mode fraction, and Angstrom Exponent. The results indicate that conversion time scales are actually quite sensitive to lower tropospheric static stability (LTSS) and cloud liquid water path (LWP), in addition to aerosol type. Analysis shows that tropical Pacific Ocean is dominated by the highest average conversion rate while subtropical warm cloud regions (far northeastern Pacific Ocean, far southeastern Pacific Ocean, Western Africa coastal area) exhibit the opposite result. Conversion times are mostly shorter for lower LTSS regimes. When LTSS condition is fixed, higher conversion rates coincide with higher LWP and lower aerosol index categories. After a general global view of physical property quantifications, the rest of the presented PhD studies is focused on regional airborne observations, especially bulk cloud water chemistry and aerosol aqueous-phase reactions during the summertime off the California coast. Local air mass origins are categorized into three distinct types (ocean, ships, and land

  2. Dependency of high coastal water level and river discharge at the global scale

    Ward, P.; Couasnon, A.; Haigh, I. D.; Muis, S.; Veldkamp, T.; Winsemius, H.; Wahl, T.

    2017-12-01

    It is widely recognized that floods cause huge socioeconomic impacts. From 1980-2013, global flood losses exceeded $1 trillion, with 220,000 fatalities. These impacts are particularly hard felt in low-lying densely populated deltas and estuaries, whose location at the coast-land interface makes them naturally prone to flooding. When river and coastal floods coincide, their impacts in these deltas and estuaries are often worse than when they occur in isolation. Such floods are examples of so-called `compound events'. In this contribution, we present the first global scale analysis of the statistical dependency of high coastal water levels (and the storm surge component alone) and river discharge. We show that there is statistical dependency between these components at more than half of the stations examined. We also show time-lags in the highest correlation between peak discharges and coastal water levels. Finally, we assess the probability of the simultaneous occurrence of design discharge and design coastal water levels, assuming both independence and statistical dependence. For those stations where we identified statistical dependency, the probability is between 1 and 5 times greater, when the dependence structure is accounted for. This information is essential for understanding the likelihood of compound flood events occurring at locations around the world as well as for accurate flood risk assessments and effective flood risk management. The research was carried out by analysing the statistical dependency between observed coastal water levels (and the storm surge component) from GESLA-2 and river discharge using gauged data from GRDC stations all around the world. The dependence structure was examined using copula functions.

  3. An integrated model to simulate sown area changes for major crops at a global scale

    WU WenBin; YANG Peng; MENG ChaoYing; SHIBASAKI Ryosuke; ZHOU QingBo; TANG HuaJun; SHI Yun

    2008-01-01

    Dynamics of land use systems have attracted much attention from scientists around the world due to their ecological and socio-economic implications. An integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of four major crops (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) on a global scale is presented. To do so, a crop choice model was developed on the basis of Multinomial Logit (Logit) model to model land users' decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives with using a crop utility function. A GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted to simulate the crop yields under a given geophysical environment and farming management conditions,while the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model was utilized to estimate crop price in the international market. The crop choice model was linked with the GIS-based EPIC model and the IFPSIM model through data exchange. This integrated model was then validated against the FAO statistical data in 2001-2003 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)global land cover product in 2001. Both validation approaches indicated reliability of the model for addressing the dynamics in agricultural land use and its capability for long-term scenario analysis. Finally,the model application was designed to run over a time period of 30 a, taking the year 2000 as baseline.The model outcomes can help understand and explain the causes, locations and consequences of land use changes, and provide support for land use planning and policy making.

  4. Global climate change - a feasibility perspective of its effect on human health at a local scale

    Michele Bernardi

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available There are two responses to global climate change. First, mitigation, which actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester or store carbon in the short-term, and make development choices that will lead to low emissions in the long-term. Second, adaptation, which involves adjustments in natural or human systems and behaviours that reduce the risks posed by climate change to people’s lives and livelihoods. While the two are conceptually distinct, in practice they are very much interdependent, and both are equally urgent from a healthy population perspective. To define the policies to mitigate and to adapt to global climate change, data and information at all scales are the basic requirement for both developed and developing countries. However, as compared to mitigation, adaptation is an immediate concern for low-income countries and for small islands states, where the reduction of the emissions from greenhouse gases is not among their priorities. Adaptation is also highly location specific and the required ground data to assess the impacts of climate change on human health are not available. Climate data at high spatial resolution can be derived by various downscaling methods using historical and real-time meteorological observations but, particularly in low-income countries, the outputs are limited by the lack of ground data at the local level. In many of these countries, a negative trend in the number of meteorological stations as compared as to before 2000 is evident, while remotelysensed imagery becomes more and more available at high spatial and temporal resolution. The final consequence is that climate change policy options in the developing world are greatly jeopardized.

  5. Dry deposition velocities in the global multi-scale CTM MOCAGE

    Michou, M.; Peuch, V.-H.

    2003-04-01

    Surface exchanges considered in the MOCAGE multiscale Chemistry and Transport Model (CTM) of Météo-France include dry deposition of gaseous species. To compute realistic time-dependent fluxes at the surface, a 2D interface between MOCAGE and ARPEGE, the French operational numerical weather prediction model, has been developed. Dry deposition of species including ozone, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen-containing compounds, long-lived and short-lived intermediates organic compounds, have been parameterised according to the [Wesely, 1989] scheme. A number of modifications has been made, for instance concerning the deposition against wet surfaces. The formulation of the aerodynamic resistance follows [Louis, 1979], and that of the stomatal resistance, the Interaction Soil Biosphere Atmosphere (ISBA) Météo-France scheme. Resistances are computed using the surface meteorological fields obtained from the analyses or forecasts of ARPEGE. Vegetation fields such as the Leaf Area Index are prescribed with a one-degree spatial resolution at the global scale, and a five-minute resolution over Europe. Calculated dry deposition velocities of ozone, sulfur dioxide and nitric acid have been evaluated against field experimental data at various locations around the world, from tropical regions, rain forest or savannah over Central Africa and Amazonia (EXPRESSO and LBA campaigns), to Mediterranean regions, including forested and crop sites (ESCOMPTE campaign), and temperate areas (deciduous and evergreen forests). Hourly values, monthly and seasonal means have been examined, as well as the impact of the model resolution, from 2 degrees over the globe to 0.08 degrees over regional domains. The contributions to the global budget of ozone of the deposition fluxes in these different regions of the globe will be also presented.

  6. Reorganizing Complex Network to Improve Large-Scale Multiagent Teamwork

    Yang Xu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Large-scale multiagent teamwork has been popular in various domains. Similar to human society infrastructure, agents only coordinate with some of the others, with a peer-to-peer complex network structure. Their organization has been proven as a key factor to influence their performance. To expedite team performance, we have analyzed that there are three key factors. First, complex network effects may be able to promote team performance. Second, coordination interactions coming from their sources are always trying to be routed to capable agents. Although they could be transferred across the network via different paths, their sources and sinks depend on the intrinsic nature of the team which is irrelevant to the network connections. In addition, the agents involved in the same plan often form a subteam and communicate with each other more frequently. Therefore, if the interactions between agents can be statistically recorded, we are able to set up an integrated network adjustment algorithm by combining the three key factors. Based on our abstracted teamwork simulations and the coordination statistics, we implemented the adaptive reorganization algorithm. The experimental results briefly support our design that the reorganized network is more capable of coordinating heterogeneous agents.

  7. Chapter 6. Scaling Up Solutions to State, National and Global Levels

    Daniel Kammen

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Scaling-up solutions require learning and adapting lessons between locations and at different scales. To accomplish this, common metrics are vital to building a shared language. For California, this has meant careful financial, cradle-to-grave life-cycle assessment methods leading to carbon accounting in many avenues of government (via the Low Carbon Fuel Standard or the Cap and Trade program. These methods themselves interact, such as the use of carbon accounting for the resources needed to manage water and other key resources; the use of criteria air pollution monitoring to identify environmental injustices; and the use of carbon market revenues to address these inequalities, through investment in best available abatement technologies (BACT and in job creation in disadvantaged communities anticipated in the emerging clean energy sector.  Creating interdisciplinary partnerships across the UC Campuses and the National Laboratories to innovate science and technology is critical to scalable carbon neutrality solutions. As an example, we can build coordinated research and development programs across UC and California, with strong partnerships with the Federal government to coordinate and “multiply” resources that accelerate development and deployment. These partnerships should be strongly goal-focused, i.e., they are created to solve specific, large problems, to enable quantitatively measurable outcomes within energy generation, efficiency and CO2 abatement categories. Intersectoral partnerships should be fostered across campuses, laboratories, with state, federal and multi-lateral organizations funding to develop technologies and deploy solutions at scale. Integrated partnerships with industry are required to influence markets, deploy solutions, and create new industries and jobs.  Beyond California, we need to establish consortia with industry and foundations to deploy solutions at the regional, state, national, and international scale to

  8. Relationship between the clinical global impression of severity for schizoaffective disorder scale and established mood scales for mania and depression.

    Turkoz, Ibrahim; Fu, Dong-Jing; Bossie, Cynthia A; Sheehan, John J; Alphs, Larry

    2013-08-15

    This analysis explored the relationship between ratings on HAM-D-17 or YMRS and those on the depressive or manic subscale of CGI-S for schizoaffective disorder (CGI-S-SCA). This post hoc analysis used the database (N=614) from two 6-week, randomized, placebo-controlled studies of paliperidone ER versus placebo in symptomatic subjects with schizoaffective disorder assessed using HAM-D-17, YMRS, and CGI-S-SCA scales. Parametric and nonparametric regression models explored the relationships between ratings on YMRS and HAM-D-17 and on depressive and manic domains of the CGI-S-SCA from baseline to the 6-week end point. A clinically meaningful improvement was defined as a change of 1 point in the CGI-S-SCA score. No adjustment was made for multiplicity. Multiple linear regression models suggested that a 1-point change in the depressive domain of CGI-S-SCA corresponded to an average 3.6-point (SE=0.2) change in HAM-D-17 score. Similarly, a 1-point change in the manic domain of CGI-S-SCA corresponded to an average 5.8-point (SE=0.2) change in YMRS score. Results were confirmed using local and cumulative logistic regression models in addition to equipercentile linking. Lack of subjects scoring over the complete range of possible scores may limit broad application of the analyses. Clinically meaningful score changes in depressive and manic domains of CGI-S-SCA corresponded to approximately 4- and 6-point score changes on HAM-D-17 and YMRS, respectively, in symptomatic subjects with schizoaffective disorder. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. LGBT world championships: sexualized ghettos in global scale? Competições esportivas mundiais LGBT: guetos sexualizados em escala global?

    Wagner Xavier de Camargo

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Ghettos are marginal territories, in which ethnic, religious, social and sexual minorities were encapsulated and segregated throughout History. Crossed by flows and tensions on movement in the global landscape, such spaces should be reanalyzed under a global perspective. Aiming to reflect on marginal territories of gender linked to LGBT sports events, this article has tried to re-think the concept of the ghetto from the "Chicago School", and analyze it according to new lenses, applied to two global and specific LGBT world championships (Gay Games and World OutGames. It was noticed that the occurrence of them and the expectations around "possibilities of ejaculation" of bodies, genders, sexualities, and desires, connected to the sports' world itself, open up the perspective that such events will perform a kind of "sexualized ghettos", i.e., territorialized spaces from sexual desires' practices, in the logic of a global circulation of desires, bodies and capitals.Os guetos são espaços circunscritos e marginais nos quais, ao longo da história, minorias religiosas, sociais, étnicas e sexuais foram encapsuladas e segregadas. Atravessados por fluxos e tensões em movimento do global landscape, tais territórios devem ser revisitados sob a ótica da globalização. Com o propósito de analisar territorialidades marginais de gênero atreladas a eventos esportivos LGBT, este artigo buscou ressemantizar o conceito de gueto da "Escola de Chicago" e repensá-lo segundo novas perspectivas analíticas, aplicadas a duas competições esportivas mundiais (Gay Games e World OutGames voltadas para o público LGBT. Percebeu-se que a ocorrência dessas competições e as expectativas em torno de "capitais ejaculantes" de corpos, sexos, desejos e sexualidades vinculados ao esporte abrem a perspectiva de que tais torneios performatizem "guetos sexualizados", isto é, espaços territorializados de práticas itinerantes de desejos, na lógica de uma circulação em

  10. Fine-scale structure of the mid-mantle characterised by global stacks of PP precursors

    Bentham, H. L. M.; Rost, S.; Thorne, M. S.

    2017-08-01

    Subduction zones are likely a major source of compositional heterogeneities in the mantle, which may preserve a record of the subduction history and mantle convection processes. The fine-scale structure associated with mantle heterogeneities can be studied using the scattered seismic wavefield that arrives as coda to or as energy preceding many body wave arrivals. In this study we analyse precursors to PP by creating stacks recorded at globally distributed stations. We create stacks aligned on the PP arrival in 5° distance bins (with range 70-120°) from 600 earthquakes recorded at 193 stations stacking a total of 7320 seismic records. As the energy trailing the direct P arrival, the P coda, interferes with the PP precursors, we suppress the P coda by subtracting a best fitting exponential curve to this energy. The resultant stacks show that PP precursors related to scattering from heterogeneities in the mantle are present for all distances. Lateral variations are explored by producing two regional stacks across the Atlantic and Pacific hemispheres, but we find only negligible differences in the precursory signature between these two regions. The similarity of these two regions suggests that well mixed subducted material can survive at upper and mid-mantle depth. To describe the scattered wavefield in the mantle, we compare the global stacks to synthetic seismograms generated using a Monte Carlo phonon scattering technique. We propose a best-fitting layered heterogeneity model, BRT2017, characterised by a three layer mantle with a background heterogeneity strength (ɛ = 0.8%) and a depth-interval of increased heterogeneity strength (ɛ = 1%) between 1000 km and 1800 km. The scalelength of heterogeneity is found to be 8 km throughout the mantle. Since mantle heterogeneity of 8 km scale may be linked to subducted oceanic crust, the detection of increased heterogeneity at mid-mantle depths could be associated with stalled slabs due to increases in viscosity

  11. The thermal environment of the human being on the global scale.

    Jendritzky, Gerd; Tinz, Birger

    2009-11-11

    The close relationship between human health, performance, well-being and the thermal environment is obvious. Nevertheless, most studies of climate and climate change impacts show amazing shortcomings in the assessment of the environment. Populations living in different climates have different susceptibilities, due to socio-economic reasons, and different customary behavioural adaptations. The global distribution of risks of hazardous thermal exposure has not been analysed before. To produce maps of the baseline and future bioclimate that allows a direct comparison of the differences in the vulnerability of populations to thermal stress across the world. The required climatological data fields are obtained from climate simulations with the global General Circulation Model ECHAM4 in T106-resolution. For the thermo-physiologically relevant assessment of these climate data a complete heat budget model of the human being, the 'Perceived Temperature' procedure has been applied which already comprises adaptation by clothing to a certain degree. Short-term physiological acclimatisation is considered via Health Related Assessment of the Thermal Environment. The global maps 1971-1980 (control run, assumed as baseline climate) show a pattern of thermal stress intensities as frequencies of heat. The heat load for people living in warm-humid climates is the highest. Climate change will lead to clear differences in health-related thermal stress between baseline climate and the future bioclimate 2041-2050 based on the 'business-as-usual' greenhouse gas scenario IS92a. The majority of the world's population will be faced with more frequent and more intense heat strain in spite of an assumed level of acclimatisation. Further adaptation measures are crucial in order to reduce the vulnerability of the populations. This bioclimatology analysis provides a tool for various questions in climate and climate change impact research. Considerations of regional or local scale require climate

  12. Along the Rainfall-Runoff Chain: From Scaling of Greatest Point Rainfall to Global Change Attribution

    Fraedrich, K.

    2014-12-01

    Processes along the continental rainfall-runoff chain cover a wide range of time and space scales which are presented here combining observations (ranging from minutes to decades) and minimalist concepts. (i) Rainfall, which can be simulated by a censored first-order autoregressive process (vertical moisture fluxes), exhibits 1/f-spectra if presented as binary events (tropics), while extrema world wide increase with duration according to Jennings' scaling law. (ii) Runoff volatility (Yangtze) shows data collapse which, linked to an intra-annual 1/f-spectrum, is represented by a single function not unlike physical systems at criticality and the short and long return times of extremes are Weibull-distributed. Atmospheric and soil moisture variabilities are also discussed. (iii) Soil moisture (in a bucket), whose variability is interpreted by a biased coinflip Ansatz for rainfall events, adds an equation of state to energy and water flux balances comprising Budyko's frame work for quasi-stationary watershed analysis. Eco-hydrologic state space presentations in terms of surface flux ratios of energy excess (loss by sensible heat over supply by net radiation) versus water excess (loss by discharge over gain by precipitation) allow attributions of state change to external (or climate) and internal (or anthropogenic) causes. Including the vegetation-greenness index (NDVI) as an active tracer extends the eco-hydrologic state space analysis to supplement the common geographical presentations. Two examples demonstrate the approach combining ERA and MODIS data sets: (a) global geobotanic classification by combining first and second moments of the dryness ratio (net radiation over precipitation) and (b) regional attributions (Tibetan Plateau) of vegetation changes.

  13. Global MHD Modelling of the ISM - From large towards small scale turbulence

    de Avillez, M.; Breitschwerdt, D.

    2005-06-01

    Dealing numerically with the turbulent nature and non-linearity of the physical processes involved in the ISM requires the use of sophisticated numerical schemes coupled to HD and MHD mathematical models. SNe are the main drivers of the interstellar turbulence by transferring kinetic energy into the system. This energy is dissipated by shocks (which is more efficient) and by molecular viscosity. We carried out adaptive mesh refinement simulations (with a finest resolution of 0.625 pc) of the turbulent ISM embedded in a magnetic field with mean field components of 2 and 3 μG. The time scale of our run was 400 Myr, sufficiently long to avoid memory effects of the initial setup, and to allow for a global dynamical equilibrium to be reached in case of a constant energy input rate. It is found that the longitudinal and transverse turbulent length scales have a time averaged (over a period of 50 Myr) ratio of 0.52-0.6, almost similar to the one expected for isotropic homogeneous turbulence. The mean characteristic size of the larger eddies is found to be ˜ 75 pc in both runs. In order to check the simulations against observations, we monitored the OVI and HI column densities within a superbubble created by the explosions of 19 SNe having masses and velocities of the stars that exploded in vicinity of the Sun generating the Local Bubble. The model reproduces the FUSE absorption measurements towards 25 white dwarfs of the OVI column density as function of distance and of N(HI). In particular for lines of sight with lengths smaller than 120 pc it is found that there is no correlation between N(OVI) and N(HI).

  14. A multicenter examination and strategic revisions of the Yale Global Tic Severity Scale.

    McGuire, Joseph F; Piacentini, John; Storch, Eric A; Murphy, Tanya K; Ricketts, Emily J; Woods, Douglas W; Walkup, John W; Peterson, Alan L; Wilhelm, Sabine; Lewin, Adam B; McCracken, James T; Leckman, James F; Scahill, Lawrence

    2018-05-08

    To examine the internal consistency and distribution of the Yale Global Tic Severity Scale (YGTSS) scores to inform modification of the measure. This cross-sectional study included 617 participants with a tic disorder (516 children and 101 adults), who completed an age-appropriate diagnostic interview and the YGTSS to evaluate tic symptom severity. The distributions of scores on YGTSS dimensions were evaluated for normality and skewness. For dimensions that were skewed across motor and phonic tics, a modified Delphi consensus process was used to revise selected anchor points. Children and adults had similar clinical characteristics, including tic symptom severity. All participants were examined together. Strong internal consistency was identified for the YGTSS Motor Tic score (α = 0.80), YGTSS Phonic Tic score (α = 0.87), and YGTSS Total Tic score (α = 0.82). The YGTSS Total Tic and Impairment scores exhibited relatively normal distributions. Several subscales and individual item scales departed from a normal distribution. Higher scores were more often used on the Motor Tic Number, Frequency, and Intensity dimensions and the Phonic Tic Frequency dimension. By contrast, lower scores were more often used on Motor Tic Complexity and Interference, and Phonic Tic Number, Intensity, Complexity, and Interference. The YGTSS exhibits good internal consistency across children and adults. The parallel findings across Motor and Phonic Frequency, Complexity, and Interference dimensions prompted minor revisions to the anchor point description to promote use of the full range of scores in each dimension. Specific minor revisions to the YGTSS Phonic Tic Symptom Checklist were also proposed. © 2018 American Academy of Neurology.

  15. Breed locally, disperse globally: Fine-scale genetic structure despite landscape-scale panmixia in a fire-specialist

    Jennifer C. Pierson; Fred W. Allendorf; Pierre Drapeau; Michael K. Schwartz

    2013-01-01

    An exciting advance in the understanding of metapopulation dynamics has been the investigation of how populations respond to ephemeral patches that go 'extinct' during the lifetime of an individual. Previous research has shown that this scenario leads to genetic homogenization across large spatial scales. However, little is known about fine-scale genetic...

  16. GEM-AQ/EC, an on-line global multi-scale chemical weather modelling system: model development and evaluation of global aerosol climatology

    S. L. Gong

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available A global air quality modeling system GEM-AQ/EC was developed by implementing tropospheric chemistry and aerosol processes on-line into the Global Environmental Multiscale weather prediction model – GEM. Due to the multi-scale features of the GEM, the integrated model, GEM-AQ/EC, is able to investigate chemical weather at scales from global to urban domains. The current chemical mechanism is comprised of 50 gas-phase species, 116 chemical and 19 photolysis reactions, and is complemented by a sectional aerosol module CAM (The Canadian Aerosol Module with 5 aerosols types: sulphate, black carbon, organic carbon, sea-salt and soil dust. Monthly emission inventories of black carbon and organic carbon from boreal and temperate vegetation fires were assembled using the most reliable areas burned datasets by countries, from statistical databases and derived from remote sensing products of 1995–2004. The model was run for ten years from from 1995–2004 with re-analyzed meteorology on a global uniform 1° × 1° horizontal resolution domain and 28 hybrid levels extending up to 10 hPa. The simulating results were compared with various observations including surface network around the globe and satellite data. Regional features of global aerosols are reasonably captured including emission, surface concentrations and aerosol optical depth. For various types of aerosols, satisfactory correlations were achieved between modeled and observed with some degree of systematic bias possibly due to large uncertainties in the emissions used in this study. A global distribution of natural aerosol contributions to the total aerosols is obtained and compared with observations.

  17. DUE GlobBiomass - Estimates of Biomass on a Global Scale

    Eberle, J.; Schmullius, C.

    2017-12-01

    For the last three years, a new ESA Data User Element (DUE) project had focussed on creating improved knowledge about the Essential Climate Variable Biomass. The main purpose of the DUE GlobBiomass project is to better characterize and to reduce uncertainties of AGB estimates by developing an innovative synergistic mapping approach in five regional sites (Sweden, Poland, Mexico, Kalimantan, South Africa) for the epochs 2005, 2010 and 2015 and for one global map for the year 2010. The project team includes leading Earth Observation experts of Europe and is linked through Partnership Agreements with further national bodies from Brazil, Canada, China, Russia and South Africa. GlobBiomass has demonstrated how EO observation data can be integrated with in situ measurements and ecological understanding to provide improved biomass estimates that can be effectively exploited by users. The target users had mainly be drawn from the climate and carbon cycle modelling communities and included users concerned with carbon emissions and uptake due to biomass changes within initiatives such as REDD+. GlobBiomass provided a harmonised structure that can be exploited to address user needs for biomass information, but will be capable of being progressively refined as new data and methods become available. This presentation will give an overview of the technical prerequisites and final results of the GlobBiomass project.

  18. Criteria for a sustainable use of bioenergy on a global scale

    Fehrenbach, Horst; Giegrich, Juergen; Reinhardt, Guido; Schmitz, Jutta [ifeu-Institut fuer Energie- und Umweltforschung GmbH, Heidelberg (Germany); Sayer, Uwe; Gretz, Marco; Seizinger, Elmar [FSC Arbeitsgruppe Deutschland, Freiburg (Germany); Lanje, Kerstin [Germanwatch (Germany)

    2008-08-15

    The German Biokraftstoffquotengesetz, the EU Biofuel Directive and other policy making initiatives lead to promote the production and use of bioenergy, liquid biofuel for transportation in particular. Such an increase requires a reliable verification on compliance with sustainability principles on a global scale. Domestic biofuels (e.g. RME) have to meet the same standards as palm oil or ethanol from sugarcane imported from tropical regions and vice verse. As a first step the German government has passed the Draft Biomass Sustainability Regulation in December 2007 hat die Bundesregierung. This research project supported UBA and BMU to prepare that regulation. The overall goal was to examine the applicability of exis The analysis of existing certification systems featured number of good practice examples, e.g. FSC, SAN, RSPO.ting certification systems in terms of sustainability approval for biomass and to propose a set of criteria. But in fact none of the existing systems addresses all sustainability issues raised by biomass production and use. Selection of the proposed set of criteria has taken into account the current international state of discussion. Just to name above others: Minimum target of GHG saving; avoidance of losses of HNV areas an losses of Biodiversity; minimizing the risk of water scarcity; involvement of stakeholders into decision making processes; respecting international labour standards. Within this research project the GHG methodology and the default values implemented in the Draft Biomass Sustainability Regulation have been elaborated. (orig.)

  19. Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD): Science Implementation

    Solomon, S. C.; McClintock, W. E.; Eastes, R.; Anderson, D. N.; Andersson, L.; Burns, A. G.; Codrescu, M.; Daniell, R. E.; England, S.; Eparvier, F. G.; Evans, J. S.; Krywonos, A.; Lumpe, J. D.; Richmond, A. D.; Rusch, D. W.; Siegmund, O.; Woods, T. N.

    2017-12-01

    The Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) is a NASA mission of opportunity that will image the Earth's thermosphere and ionosphere from geostationary orbit. GOLD will investigate how the thermosphere-ionosphere (T-I) system responds to geomagnetic storms, solar radiation, and upward propagating tides and how the structure of the equatorial ionosphere influences the formation and evolution of equatorial plasma density irregularities. GOLD consists of a pair of identical imaging spectrographs that will measure airglow emissions at far-ultraviolet wavelengths from 132 to 162 nm. On the disk, temperature and composition will be determined during the day using emissions from molecular nitrogen Lyman-Birge-Hopfield (LBH) band and atomic oxygen 135.6 nm, and electron density will be derived at night from 135.6 nm emission. On the limb, exospheric temperature will be derived from LBH emission profiles, and molecular oxygen density will be measured using stellar occultations. This presentation describes the GOLD mission science implementation including the as-built instrument performance and the planned observing scenario. It also describes the results of simulations performed by the GOLD team to validate that the measured instrument performance and observing plan will return adequate data to address the science objectives of the mission.

  20. Ecosystem services and biogeochemical cycles on a global scale: valuation of water, carbon and nitrogen processes

    Watanabe, Marcos D.B.; Ortega, Enrique

    2011-01-01

    Ecosystem services (ES) are provided by healthy ecosystems and are fundamental to support human life. However, natural systems have been degraded all over the world and the process of degradation is partially attributed to the lack of knowledge regarding the economic benefits associated with ES, which usually are not captured in the market. To valuate ES without using conventional approaches, such as the human's willingness-to-pay for ecosystem goods and services, this paper uses a different method based on Energy Systems Theory to estimate prices for biogeochemical flows that affect ecosystem services by considering their emergy content converted to equivalent monetary terms. Ecosystem services related to water, carbon and nitrogen biogeochemical flows were assessed since they are connected to a range of final ecosystem services including climate regulation, hydrological regulation, food production, soil formation and others. Results in this paper indicate that aquifer recharge, groundwater flow, carbon dioxide sequestration, methane emission, biological nitrogen fixation, nitrous oxide emission and nitrogen leaching/runoff are the most critical biogeochemical flows in terrestrial systems. Moreover, monetary values related to biogeochemical flows on a global scale could provide important information for policymakers concerned with payment mechanisms for ecosystem services and costs of greenhouse gas emissions.

  1. HIV scale-up in Mozambique: Exceptionalism, normalisation and global health

    Høg, Erling

    2014-01-01

    The large-scale introduction of HIV and AIDS services in Mozambique from 2000 onwards occurred in the context of deep political commitment to sovereign nation-building and an important transition in the nation's health system. Simultaneously, the international community encountered a willing state partner that recognised the need to take action against the HIV epidemic. This article examines two critical policy shifts: sustained international funding and public health system integration (the move from parallel to integrated HIV services). The Mozambican government struggles to support its national health system against privatisation, NGO competition and internal brain drain. This is a sovereignty issue. However, the dominant discourse on self-determination shows a contradictory twist: it is part of the political rhetoric to keep the sovereignty discourse alive, while the real challenge is coordination, not partnerships. Nevertheless, we need more anthropological studies to understand the political implications of global health funding and governance. Other studies need to examine the consequences of public health system integration for the quality of access to health care. PMID:24499102

  2. A Globally Stable Lyapunov Pointing and Rate Controller for the Magnetospheric MultiScale Mission (MMS)

    Shah, Neerav

    2011-01-01

    The Magnetospheric MultiScale Mission (MMS) is scheduled to launch in late 2014. Its primary goal is to discover the fundamental plasma physics processes of reconnection in the Earth's magnetosphere. Each of the four MMS spacecraft is spin-stabilized at a nominal rate of 3 RPM. Traditional spin-stabilized spacecraft have used a number of separate modes to control nutation, spin rate, and precession. To reduce the number of modes and simplify operations, the Delta-H control mode is designed to accomplish nutation control, spin rate control, and precession control simultaneously. A nonlinear design technique, Lyapunov's method, is used to design the Delta-H control mode. A global spin rate controller selected as the baseline controller for MMS, proved to be insufficient due to an ambiguity in the attitude. Lyapunov's design method was used to solve this ambiguity, resulting in a controller that meets the design goals. Simulation results show the advantage of the pointing and rate controller for maneuvers larger than 90 deg and provide insight into the performance of this controller.

  3. Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balances

    Tang, G.; Bartlein, P. J.

    2012-08-01

    Satellite-based data, such as vegetation type and fractional vegetation cover, are widely used in hydrologic models to prescribe the vegetation state in a study region. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM) simulate land surface hydrology. Incorporation of satellite-based data into a DGVM may enhance a model's ability to simulate land surface hydrology by reducing the task of model parameterization and providing distributed information on land characteristics. The objectives of this study are to (i) modify a DGVM for simulating land surface water balances; (ii) evaluate the modified model in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture, and surface runoff at regional or watershed scales; and (iii) gain insight into the ability of both the original and modified model to simulate large spatial scale land surface hydrology. To achieve these objectives, we introduce the "LPJ-hydrology" (LH) model which incorporates satellite-based data into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM. To evaluate the model we ran LH using historical (1981-2006) climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells for the conterminous US and for the entire world using coarser climate and land cover data. We evaluated the simulated ET, soil moisture, and surface runoff using a set of observed or simulated data at different spatial scales. Our results demonstrate that spatial patterns of LH-simulated annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data for the US; LH-modeled monthly stream flow for 12 major rivers in the US was consistent with observed values respectively during the years 1981-2006 (R2 > 0.46, p 0.52). The modeled mean annual discharges for 10 major rivers worldwide also agreed well (differences day method for snowmelt computation, the addition of the solar radiation effect on snowmelt enabled LH to better simulate monthly stream flow in winter and early spring for rivers located at mid-to-high latitudes. In addition, LH

  4. Exploration of time-course combinations of outcome scales for use in a global test of stroke recovery.

    Goldie, Fraser C; Fulton, Rachael L; Dawson, Jesse; Bluhmki, Erich; Lees, Kennedy R

    2014-08-01

    Clinical trials for acute ischemic stroke treatment require large numbers of participants and are expensive to conduct. Methods that enhance statistical power are therefore desirable. We explored whether this can be achieved by a measure incorporating both early and late measures of outcome (e.g. seven-day NIH Stroke Scale combined with 90-day modified Rankin scale). We analyzed sensitivity to treatment effect, using proportional odds logistic regression for ordinal scales and generalized estimating equation method for global outcomes, with all analyses adjusted for baseline severity and age. We ran simulations to assess relations between sample size and power for ordinal scales and corresponding global outcomes. We used R version 2·12·1 (R Development Core Team. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) for simulations and SAS 9·2 (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC, USA) for all other analyses. Each scale considered for combination was sensitive to treatment effect in isolation. The mRS90 and NIHSS90 had adjusted odds ratio of 1·56 and 1·62, respectively. Adjusted odds ratio for global outcomes of the combination of mRS90 with NIHSS7 and NIHSS90 with NIHSS7 were 1·69 and 1·73, respectively. The smallest sample sizes required to generate statistical power ≥80% for mRS90, NIHSS7, and global outcomes of mRS90 and NIHSS7 combined and NIHSS90 and NIHSS7 combined were 500, 490, 400, and 380, respectively. When data concerning both early and late outcomes are combined into a global measure, there is increased sensitivity to treatment effect compared with solitary ordinal scales. This delivers a 20% reduction in required sample size at 80% power. Combining early with late outcomes merits further consideration. © 2013 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2013 World Stroke Organization.

  5. Globalization

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  6. Globalization

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  7. A highly scalable particle tracking algorithm using partitioned global address space (PGAS) programming for extreme-scale turbulence simulations

    Buaria, D.; Yeung, P. K.

    2017-12-01

    A new parallel algorithm utilizing a partitioned global address space (PGAS) programming model to achieve high scalability is reported for particle tracking in direct numerical simulations of turbulent fluid flow. The work is motivated by the desire to obtain Lagrangian information necessary for the study of turbulent dispersion at the largest problem sizes feasible on current and next-generation multi-petaflop supercomputers. A large population of fluid particles is distributed among parallel processes dynamically, based on instantaneous particle positions such that all of the interpolation information needed for each particle is available either locally on its host process or neighboring processes holding adjacent sub-domains of the velocity field. With cubic splines as the preferred interpolation method, the new algorithm is designed to minimize the need for communication, by transferring between adjacent processes only those spline coefficients determined to be necessary for specific particles. This transfer is implemented very efficiently as a one-sided communication, using Co-Array Fortran (CAF) features which facilitate small data movements between different local partitions of a large global array. The cost of monitoring transfer of particle properties between adjacent processes for particles migrating across sub-domain boundaries is found to be small. Detailed benchmarks are obtained on the Cray petascale supercomputer Blue Waters at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign. For operations on the particles in a 81923 simulation (0.55 trillion grid points) on 262,144 Cray XE6 cores, the new algorithm is found to be orders of magnitude faster relative to a prior algorithm in which each particle is tracked by the same parallel process at all times. This large speedup reduces the additional cost of tracking of order 300 million particles to just over 50% of the cost of computing the Eulerian velocity field at this scale. Improving support of PGAS models on

  8. Large-scale hydrological modeling for calculating water stress indices: implications of improved spatiotemporal resolution, surface-groundwater differentiation, and uncertainty characterization.

    Scherer, Laura; Venkatesh, Aranya; Karuppiah, Ramkumar; Pfister, Stephan

    2015-04-21

    Physical water scarcities can be described by water stress indices. These are often determined at an annual scale and a watershed level; however, such scales mask seasonal fluctuations and spatial heterogeneity within a watershed. In order to account for this level of detail, first and foremost, water availability estimates must be improved and refined. State-of-the-art global hydrological models such as WaterGAP and UNH/GRDC have previously been unable to reliably reflect water availability at the subbasin scale. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was tested as an alternative to global models, using the case study of the Mississippi watershed. While SWAT clearly outperformed the global models at the scale of a large watershed, it was judged to be unsuitable for global scale simulations due to the high calibration efforts required. The results obtained in this study show that global assessments miss out on key aspects related to upstream/downstream relations and monthly fluctuations, which are important both for the characterization of water scarcity in the Mississippi watershed and for water footprints. Especially in arid regions, where scarcity is high, these models provide unsatisfying results.

  9. Improving seasonal forecasts of hydroclimatic variables through the state of multiple large-scale climate signals

    Castelletti, A.; Giuliani, M.; Block, P. J.

    2017-12-01

    Increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes combined with more frequent and intense extreme events are challenging water systems management worldwide, emphasizing the need of accurate medium- to long-term predictions to timely prompt anticipatory operations. Despite modern forecasts are skillful over short lead time (from hours to days), predictability generally tends to decrease on longer lead times. Global climate teleconnection, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), may contribute in extending forecast lead times. However, ENSO teleconnection is well defined in some locations, such as Western USA and Australia, while there is no consensus on how it can be detected and used in other regions, particularly in Europe, Africa, and Asia. In this work, we generalize the Niño Index Phase Analysis (NIPA) framework by contributing the Multi Variate Niño Index Phase Analysis (MV-NIPA), which allows capturing the state of multiple large-scale climate signals (i.e. ENSO, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole) to forecast hydroclimatic variables on a seasonal time scale. Specifically, our approach distinguishes the different phases of the considered climate signals and, for each phase, identifies relevant anomalies in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) that influence the local hydrologic conditions. The potential of the MV-NIPA framework is demonstrated through an application to the Lake Como system, a regulated lake in northern Italy which is mainly operated for flood control and irrigation supply. Numerical results show high correlations between seasonal SST values and one season-ahead precipitation in the Lake Como basin. The skill of the resulting MV-NIPA forecast outperforms the one of ECMWF products. This information represents a valuable contribution to partially anticipate the summer water availability, especially during drought events, ultimately supporting the improvement of the Lake Como

  10. Evaluating the Long-term Water Cycle Trends at a Global-scale using Satellite and Assimilation Datasets

    Kim, H.; Lakshmi, V.

    2017-12-01

    Global-scale soil moisture and rainfall products retrieved from remotely sensed and assimilation datasets provide an effective way to monitor near surface soil moisture content and precipitation with sub-daily temporal resolution. In the present study, we employed the concept of the stored precipitation fraction Fp(f) in order to examine the long-term water cycle trends at a global-scale. The analysis was done for Fp(f) trends with the various geophysical aspects such as climate zone, land use classifications, amount of vegetation, and soil properties. Furthermore, we compared a global-scale Fp(f) using different microwave-based satellite soil moisture datasets. The Fp(f) is calculated by utilized surface soil moisture dataset from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity, Advanced Scatterometer, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2, and precipitation information from Global Precipitation Measurement Mission and Global Land Data Assimilation System. Different results from microwave-based soil moisture dataset showed discordant results particularly over arid and highly vegetated regions. The results of this study provide us new insights of the long-term water cycle trends over different land surface areas. Thereby also highlighting the advantages of the recently available GPM and SMAP datasets for the uses in various hydrometeorological applications.

  11. Multi-Scale Governance of Sustainable Natural Resource Use—Challenges and Opportunities for Monitoring and Institutional Development at the National and Global Level

    Stefan Bringezu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In a globalized economy, the use of natural resources is determined by the demand of modern production and consumption systems, and by infrastructure development. Sustainable natural resource use will require good governance and management based on sound scientific information, data and indicators. There is a rich literature on natural resource management, yet the national and global scale and macro-economic policy making has been underrepresented. We provide an overview of the scholarly literature on multi-scale governance of natural resources, focusing on the information required by relevant actors from local to global scale. Global natural resource use is largely determined by national, regional, and local policies. We observe that in recent decades, the development of public policies of natural resource use has been fostered by an “inspiration cycle” between the research, policy and statistics community, fostering social learning. Effective natural resource policies require adequate monitoring tools, in particular indicators for the use of materials, energy, land, and water as well as waste and GHG emissions of national economies. We summarize the state-of-the-art of the application of accounting methods and data sources for national material flow accounts and indicators, including territorial and product-life-cycle based approaches. We show how accounts on natural resource use can inform the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs and argue that information on natural resource use, and in particular footprint indicators, will be indispensable for a consistent implementation of the SDGs. We recognize that improving the knowledge base for global natural resource use will require further institutional development including at national and international levels, for which we outline options.

  12. Calculating Clinically Significant Change: Applications of the Clinical Global Impressions (CGI) Scale to Evaluate Client Outcomes in Private Practice

    Kelly, Peter James

    2010-01-01

    The Clinical Global Impressions (CGI) scale is a therapist-rated measure of client outcome that has been widely used within the research literature. The current study aimed to develop reliable and clinically significant change indices for the CGI, and to demonstrate its application in private psychological practice. Following the guidelines…

  13. High-Resolution Global Modeling of the Effects of Subgrid-Scale Clouds and Turbulence on Precipitating Cloud Systems

    Bogenschutz, Peter [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Moeng, Chin-Hoh [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2015-10-13

    The PI’s at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Chin-Hoh Moeng and Peter Bogenschutz, have primarily focused their time on the implementation of the Simplified-Higher Order Turbulence Closure (SHOC; Bogenschutz and Krueger 2013) to the Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) global model and testing of SHOC on deep convective cloud regimes.

  14. Education for Y'All: Global Neoliberalism and the Case for a Politics of Scale in Sustainability Education Policy

    McKenzie, Marcia

    2012-01-01

    This article addresses the effects of neoliberalism as it operates through global and local educational policy, and in particular in relation to the United Nations' Education for Sustainable Development initiatives. It examines how a politics of scale is necessary in enabling critique and in rearticulating forms of education policy-making and…

  15. Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

    Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Flörke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.; Yang, T.; Müller, C.; Leng, G.; Tang, Q.; Portmann, F. T.; Hagemann, S.; Gerten, D.; Wada, Y.; Masaki, Y.; Alemayehu, T.; Satoh, Y.; Samaniego, L.

    2017-01-04

    Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity of impact models designed for either scale to climate variability and change is comparable. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a much better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases with distinct differences in others, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability, but whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models validated against observed discharge should be used.

  16. Understanding How the "Open" of Open Source Software (OSS) Will Improve Global Health Security.

    Hahn, Erin; Blazes, David; Lewis, Sheri

    2016-01-01

    Improving global health security will require bold action in all corners of the world, particularly in developing settings, where poverty often contributes to an increase in emerging infectious diseases. In order to mitigate the impact of emerging pandemic threats, enhanced disease surveillance is needed to improve early detection and rapid response to outbreaks. However, the technology to facilitate this surveillance is often unattainable because of high costs, software and hardware maintenance needs, limited technical competence among public health officials, and internet connectivity challenges experienced in the field. One potential solution is to leverage open source software, a concept that is unfortunately often misunderstood. This article describes the principles and characteristics of open source software and how it may be applied to solve global health security challenges.

  17. Action Video Games Improve Direction Discrimination of Parafoveal Translational Global Motion but Not Reaction Times.

    Pavan, Andrea; Boyce, Matthew; Ghin, Filippo

    2016-10-01

    Playing action video games enhances visual motion perception. However, there is psychophysical evidence that action video games do not improve motion sensitivity for translational global moving patterns presented in fovea. This study investigates global motion perception in action video game players and compares their performance to that of non-action video game players and non-video game players. Stimuli were random dot kinematograms presented in the parafovea. Observers discriminated the motion direction of a target random dot kinematogram presented in one of the four visual quadrants. Action video game players showed lower motion coherence thresholds than the other groups. However, when the task was performed at threshold, we did not find differences between groups in terms of distributions of reaction times. These results suggest that action video games improve visual motion sensitivity in the near periphery of the visual field, rather than speed response. © The Author(s) 2016.

  18. Designing for Scale: Reflections on Rolling Out Reading Improvement in Kenya and Liberia.

    Gove, Amber; Korda Poole, Medina; Piper, Benjamin

    2017-03-01

    Since 2008, the Ministries of Education in Liberia and Kenya have undertaken transitions from small-scale pilot programs to improve reading outcomes among primary learners to the large-scale implementation of reading interventions. The effects of the pilots on learning outcomes were significant, but questions remained regarding whether such large gains could be sustained at scale. In this article, the authors dissect the Liberian and Kenyan experiences with implementing large-scale reading programs, documenting the critical components and conditions of the program designs that affected the likelihood of successfully transitioning from pilot to scale. They also review the design, deployment, and effectiveness of each pilot program and the scale, design, duration, enabling conditions, and initial effectiveness results of the scaled programs in each country. The implications of these results for the design of both pilot and large-scale reading programs are discussed in light of the experiences of both the Liberian and Kenyan programs. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Revisiting the contemporary sea-level budget on global and regional scales.

    Rietbroek, Roelof; Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther; Kusche, Jürgen; Schröter, Jens; Dahle, Christoph

    2016-02-09

    Dividing the sea-level budget into contributions from ice sheets and glaciers, the water cycle, steric expansion, and crustal movement is challenging, especially on regional scales. Here, Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity observations and sea-level anomalies from altimetry are used in a joint inversion, ensuring a consistent decomposition of the global and regional sea-level rise budget. Over the years 2002-2014, we find a global mean steric trend of 1.38 ± 0.16 mm/y, compared with a total trend of 2.74 ± 0.58 mm/y. This is significantly larger than steric trends derived from in situ temperature/salinity profiles and models which range from 0.66 ± 0.2 to 0.94 ± 0.1 mm/y. Mass contributions from ice sheets and glaciers (1.37 ± 0.09 mm/y, accelerating with 0.03 ± 0.02 mm/y(2)) are offset by a negative hydrological component (-0.29 ± 0.26 mm/y). The combined mass rate (1.08 ± 0.3 mm/y) is smaller than previous GRACE estimates (up to 2 mm/y), but it is consistent with the sum of individual contributions (ice sheets, glaciers, and hydrology) found in literature. The altimetric sea-level budget is closed by coestimating a remaining component of 0.22 ± 0.26 mm/y. Well above average sea-level rise is found regionally near the Philippines (14.7 ± 4.39 mm/y) and Indonesia (8.3 ± 4.7 mm/y) which is dominated by steric components (11.2 ± 3.58 mm/y and 6.4 ± 3.18 mm/y, respectively). In contrast, in the central and Eastern part of the Pacific, negative steric trends (down to -2.8 ± 1.53 mm/y) are detected. Significant regional components are found, up to 5.3 ± 2.6 mm/y in the northwest Atlantic, which are likely due to ocean bottom pressure variations.

  20. Are global and regional improvements in life expectancy and in child, adult and senior survival slowing?

    Ryan J Hum

    Full Text Available Improvements in life expectancy have been considerable over the past hundred years. Forecasters have taken to applying historical trends under an assumption of continuing improvements in life expectancy in the future. A linear mixed effects model was used to estimate the trends in global and regional rates of improvements in life expectancy, child, adult, and senior survival, in 166 countries between 1950 and 2010. Global improvements in life expectancy, including both child and adult survival rates, decelerated significantly over the study period. Overall life expectancy gains were estimated to have declined from 5.9 to 4.0 months per year for a mean deceleration of -0.07 months/year2; annual child survival gains declined from 4.4 to 1.6 deaths averted per 1000 for a mean deceleration of -0.06 deaths/1000/year2; adult survival gains were estimated to decline from 4.8 to 3.7 deaths averted per 1000 per year for a mean deceleration of -0.08 deaths/1000/year2. Senior survival gains however increased from 2.4 to 4.2 deaths averted per 1000 per year for an acceleration of 0.03 deaths/1000/year2. Regional variation in the four measures was substantial. The rates of global improvements in life expectancy, child survival, and adult survival have declined since 1950 despite an increase in the rate of improvements among seniors. We postulate that low-cost innovation, related to the last half-century progress in health-primarily devoted to children and middle age, is reaping diminishing returns on its investments. Trends are uneven across regions and measures, which may be due in part to the state of epidemiological transition between countries and regions and disparities in the diffusion of innovation, accessible only in high-income countries where life expectancy is already highest.

  1. Use of peers to improve adherence to antiretroviral therapy: a global network meta-analysis.

    Kanters, Steve; Park, Jay Jh; Chan, Keith; Ford, Nathan; Forrest, Jamie; Thorlund, Kristian; Nachega, Jean B; Mills, Edward J

    2016-01-01

    It is unclear whether using peers can improve adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART). To construct the World Health Organization's global guidance on adherence interventions, we conducted a systematic review and network meta-analysis to determine the effectiveness of using peers for achieving adequate adherence and viral suppression. We searched for randomized clinical trials of peer-based interventions to promote adherence to ART in HIV populations. We searched six electronic databases from inception to July 2015 and major conference abstracts within the last three years. We examined the outcomes of adherence and viral suppression among trials done worldwide and those specific to low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) using pairwise and network meta-analyses. Twenty-two trials met the inclusion criteria. We found similar results between pairwise and network meta-analyses, and between the global and LMIC settings. Peer supporter+Telephone was superior in improving adherence than standard-of-care in both the global network (odds-ratio [OR]=4.79, 95% credible intervals [CrI]: 1.02, 23.57) and the LMIC settings (OR=4.83, 95% CrI: 1.88, 13.55). Peer support alone, however, did not lead to improvement in ART adherence in both settings. For viral suppression, we found no difference of effects among interventions due to limited trials. Our analysis showed that peer support leads to modest improvement in adherence. These modest effects may be due to the fact that in many settings, particularly in LMICs, programmes already include peer supporters, adherence clubs and family disclosures for treatment support. Rather than introducing new interventions, a focus on improving the quality in the delivery of existing services may be a more practical and effective way to improve adherence to ART.

  2. Improved treatment of global positioning system force parameters in precise orbit determination applications

    Vigue, Y.; Lichten, S. M.; Muellerschoen, R. J.; Blewitt, G.; Heflin, M. B.

    1993-01-01

    Data collected from a worldwide 1992 experiment were processed at JPL to determine precise orbits for the satellites of the Global Positioning System (GPS). A filtering technique was tested to improve modeling of solar-radiation pressure force parameters for GPS satellites. The new approach improves orbit quality for eclipsing satellites by a factor of two, with typical results in the 25- to 50-cm range. The resultant GPS-based estimates for geocentric coordinates of the tracking sites, which include the three DSN sites, are accurate to 2 to 8 cm, roughly equivalent to 3 to 10 nrad of angular measure.

  3. Global Rating Scales and Motion Analysis Are Valid Proficiency Metrics in Virtual and Benchtop Knee Arthroscopy Simulators.

    Chang, Justues; Banaszek, Daniel C; Gambrel, Jason; Bardana, Davide

    2016-04-01

    Work-hour restrictions and fatigue management strategies in surgical training programs continue to evolve in an effort to improve the learning environment and promote safer patient care. In response, training programs must reevaluate how various teaching modalities such as simulation can augment the development of surgical competence in trainees. For surgical simulators to be most useful, it is important to determine whether surgical proficiency can be reliably differentiated using them. To our knowledge, performance on both virtual and benchtop arthroscopy simulators has not been concurrently assessed in the same subjects. (1) Do global rating scales and procedure time differentiate arthroscopic expertise in virtual and benchtop knee models? (2) Can commercially available built-in motion analysis metrics differentiate arthroscopic expertise? (3) How well are performance measures on virtual and benchtop simulators correlated? (4) Are these metrics sensitive enough to differentiate by year of training? A cross-sectional study of 19 subjects (four medical students, 12 residents, and three staff) were recruited and divided into 11 novice arthroscopists (student to Postgraduate Year [PGY] 3) and eight proficient arthroscopists (PGY 4 to staff) who completed a diagnostic arthroscopy and loose-body retrieval in both virtual and benchtop knee models. Global rating scales (GRS), procedure times, and motion analysis metrics were used to evaluate performance. The proficient group scored higher on virtual (14 ± 6 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 10-18] versus 36 ± 5 [95% CI, 32-40], p virtual scope (579 ±169 [95% CI, 466-692] versus 358 ± 178 [95% CI, 210-507] seconds, p = 0.02) and benchtop knee scope + probe (480 ± 160 [95% CI, 373-588] versus 277 ± 64 [95% CI, 224-330] seconds, p = 0.002). The built-in motion analysis metrics also distinguished novices from proficient arthroscopists using the self-generated virtual loose body retrieval task scores (4 ± 1 [95% CI, 3

  4. Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and regional scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C assessments.

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Chatta, Ashfaq Ahmad; Ewert, Frank; Folberth, Christian; Hathie, Ibrahima; Havlik, Petr; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; MacCarthy, Dilys S; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Contreras, Erik Mencos; Müller, Christoph; Perez-Dominguez, Ignacio; Phillips, Meridel; Porter, Cheryl; Raymundo, Rubi M; Sands, Ronald D; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Valdivia, Roberto O; Valin, Hugo; Wiebe, Keith

    2018-05-13

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study aims to perform a proof of concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the proposed framework. This effort responds to the request by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the implications of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial conditions. The protocols for the 1.5°C/2.0°C assessment establish explicit and testable linkages across disciplines and scales, connecting outputs and inputs from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs), Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble scenarios, global gridded crop models, global agricultural economics models, site-based crop models and within-country regional economics models. The CGRA consistently links disciplines, models and scales in order to track the complex chain of climate impacts and identify key vulnerabilities, feedbacks and uncertainties in managing future risk. CGRA proof-of-concept results show that, at the global scale, there are mixed areas of positive and negative simulated wheat and maize yield changes, with declines in some breadbasket regions, at both 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Declines are especially evident in simulations that do not take into account direct CO 2 effects on crops. These projected global yield changes mostly resulted in increases in prices and areas of wheat and maize in two global economics models. Regional simulations for 1.5°C and 2.0°C using site-based crop models had mixed results depending on the region and the crop. In conjunction with price changes from the global economics models, productivity declines in the Punjab, Pakistan, resulted in

  5. Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and regional scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C assessments

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Chatta, Ashfaq Ahmad; Ewert, Frank; Folberth, Christian; Hathie, Ibrahima; Havlik, Petr; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; MacCarthy, Dilys S.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Contreras, Erik Mencos; Müller, Christoph; Perez-Dominguez, Ignacio; Phillips, Meridel; Porter, Cheryl; Raymundo, Rubi M.; Sands, Ronald D.; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Valdivia, Roberto O.; Valin, Hugo; Wiebe, Keith

    2018-05-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study aims to perform a proof of concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the proposed framework. This effort responds to the request by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the implications of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial conditions. The protocols for the 1.5°C/2.0°C assessment establish explicit and testable linkages across disciplines and scales, connecting outputs and inputs from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs), Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble scenarios, global gridded crop models, global agricultural economics models, site-based crop models and within-country regional economics models. The CGRA consistently links disciplines, models and scales in order to track the complex chain of climate impacts and identify key vulnerabilities, feedbacks and uncertainties in managing future risk. CGRA proof-of-concept results show that, at the global scale, there are mixed areas of positive and negative simulated wheat and maize yield changes, with declines in some breadbasket regions, at both 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Declines are especially evident in simulations that do not take into account direct CO2 effects on crops. These projected global yield changes mostly resulted in increases in prices and areas of wheat and maize in two global economics models. Regional simulations for 1.5°C and 2.0°C using site-based crop models had mixed results depending on the region and the crop. In conjunction with price changes from the global economics models, productivity declines in the Punjab, Pakistan, resulted in

  6. Global change impact on water resources at the regional scale - a reflection on participatory modeling

    Barthel, Roland; Büttner, Hannah; Nickel, Darla; Seidl, Roman

    2015-04-01

    discussion we therefore focus on the following three questions: • Can a stakeholder dialogue be successfully used to support the development of new, complex modelling systems, in particular at the regional scale? • What is the right timing for stakeholder interaction in the case of unclear problem definition - i.e. global (climate) change impact on regions where climate is not (yet) a threat to water or land use related demands and activities? • To what degree can scientists be motivated to carry out participatory research at all? We conclude that the PM process in GD was only partly successful because the project set overambitious goals, including the application of fundamentally new approaches to interdisciplinary science, the use of new modelling technologies, the focus upon and evaluation of potential and therefore characteristically uncertain future problems, including stakeholder demands, and the development of a ready-to-use, user-friendly tool. Furthermore, GD also showed that an externally and professionally moderated stakeholder dialogue is an absolute necessity to achieve successful participation of stakeholders in model development. The modelers themselves neither had the time, the skills and the ambitions to do this. Furthermore, there is a lack of incentives for scientists, particularly natural scientists, to commit to PM activities. Given the fact that the outcomes of PM are supposed to be relevant for societal decision making, this issue needs further attention.

  7. Improved convergence of gradient-based reconstruction using multi-scale models

    Cunningham, G.S.; Hanson, K.M.; Koyfman, I.

    1996-01-01

    Geometric models have received increasing attention in medical imaging for tasks such as segmentation, reconstruction, restoration, and registration. In order to determine the best configuration of the geometric model in the context of any of these tasks, one needs to perform a difficult global optimization of an energy function that may have many local minima. Explicit models of geometry, also called deformable models, snakes, or active contours, have been used extensively to solve image segmentation problems in a non-Bayesian framework. Researchers have seen empirically that multi-scale analysis is useful for convergence to a configuration that is near the global minimum. In this type of analysis, the image data are convolved with blur functions of increasing resolution, and an optimal configuration of the snake is found for each blurred image. The configuration obtained using the highest resolution blur is used as the solution to the global optimization problem. In this article, the authors use explicit models of geometry for a variety of Bayesian estimation problems, including image segmentation, reconstruction and restoration. The authors introduce a multi-scale approach that blurs the geometric model, rather than the image data, and show that this approach turns a global, highly nonquadratic optimization into a sequence of local, approximately quadratic problems that converge to the global minimum. The result is a deterministic, robust, and efficient optimization strategy applicable to a wide variety of Bayesian estimation problems in which geometric models of images are an important component

  8. Can modeling of HIV treatment processes improve outcomes? Capitalizing on an operations research approach to the global pandemic

    Hollingsworth Eric B

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mathematical modeling has been applied to a range of policy-level decisions on resource allocation for HIV care and treatment. We describe the application of classic operations research (OR techniques to address logistical and resource management challenges in HIV treatment scale-up activities in resource-limited countries. Methods We review and categorize several of the major logistical and operational problems encountered over the last decade in the global scale-up of HIV care and antiretroviral treatment for people with AIDS. While there are unique features of HIV care and treatment that pose significant challenges to effective modeling and service improvement, we identify several analogous OR-based solutions that have been developed in the service, industrial, and health sectors. Results HIV treatment scale-up includes many processes that are amenable to mathematical and simulation modeling, including forecasting future demand for services; locating and sizing facilities for maximal efficiency; and determining optimal staffing levels at clinical centers. Optimization of clinical and logistical processes through modeling may improve outcomes, but successful OR-based interventions will require contextualization of response strategies, including appreciation of both existing health care systems and limitations in local health workforces. Conclusion The modeling techniques developed in the engineering field of operations research have wide potential application to the variety of logistical problems encountered in HIV treatment scale-up in resource-limited settings. Increasing the number of cross-disciplinary collaborations between engineering and public health will help speed the appropriate development and application of these tools.

  9. Cross-scale modelling of the climate-change mitigation potential of biochar systems: Global implications of nano-scale processes

    Woolf, Dominic; Lehmann, Johannes

    2014-05-01

    With CO2 emissions still tracking the upper bounds of projected emissions scenarios, it is becoming increasingly urgent to reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and increasingly likely that restricting future atmospheric GHG concentrations to within safe limits will require an eventual transition towards net negative GHG emissions. Few measures capable of providing negative emissions at a globally-significant scale are currently known. Two that are most often considered include carbon sequestration in biomass and soil, and biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). In common with these two approaches, biochar also relies on the use of photosynthetically-bound carbon in biomass. But, because biomass and land are limited, it is critical that these resources are efficiently allocated between biomass/soil sequestration, bioenergy, BECCS, biochar, and other competing uses such as food, fiber and biodiversity. In many situations, biochar can offer advantages that may make it the preferred use of a limited biomass supply. These advantages include that: 1) Biochar can provide valuable benefits to agriculture by improving soil fertility and crop production, and reducing fertlizer and irrigation requirements. 2) Biochar is significantly more stable than biomass or other forms of soil carbon, thus lowering the risk of future losses compared to sequestration in biomass or soil organic carbon. 3) Gases and volatiles produced by pyrolysis can be combusted for energy (which may offset fossil fuel emissions). 4) Biochar can further lower GHG emissions by reducing nitrous oxide emissions from soil and by enhancing net primary production. Determining the optimal use of biomass requires that we are able to model not only the climate-change mitigation impact of each option, but also their economic and wider environmental impacts. Thus, what is required is a systems modelling approach that integrates components representing soil biogeochemistry, hydrology, crop

  10. Quantifying invertebrate resistance to floods: a global-scale meta-analysis.

    McMullen, Laura E; Lytle, David A

    2012-12-01

    Floods are a key component of the ecology and management of riverine ecosystems around the globe, but it is not clear whether floods have predictable effects on organisms that can allow us to generalize across regions and continents. To address this, we conducted a global-scale meta-analysis to investigate effects of natural and managed floods on invertebrate resistance, the ability of invertebrates to survive flood events. We considered 994 studies for inclusion in the analysis, and after evaluation based on a priori criteria, narrowed our analysis to 41 studies spanning six of the seven continents. We used the natural-log-ratio of invertebrate abundance before and within 10 days after flood events because this measure of effect size can be directly converted to estimates of percent survival. We conducted categorical and continuous analyses that examined the contribution of environmental and study design variables to effect size heterogeneity, and examined differences in effect size among taxonomic groups. We found that invertebrate abundance was lowered by at least one-half after flood events. While natural vs. managed floods were similar in their effect, effect size differed among habitat and substrate types, with pools, sand, and boulders experiencing the strongest effect. Although sample sizes were not sufficient to examine all taxonomic groups, floods had a significant, negative effect on densities of Coleoptera, Eumalacostraca, Annelida, Ephemeroptera, Diptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera. Results from this study provide guidance for river flow regime prescriptions that will be applicable across continents and climate types, as well as baseline expectations for future empirical studies of freshwater disturbance.

  11. Global-Scale Consequences of Magnetic-Helicity Injection and Condensation on the Sun

    Mackay, Duncan H.; DeVore, C. Richard; Antiochos, Spiro K.

    2013-01-01

    In the recent paper of Antiochos, a new concept for the injection of magnetic helicity into the solar corona by small-scale convective motions and its condensation onto polarity inversion lines (PILs) has been developed. We investigate this concept through global simulations of the Sun's photospheric and coronal magnetic fields and compare the results with the hemispheric pattern of solar filaments. Assuming that the vorticity of the cells is predominately counter-clockwise/clockwise in the northern/southern hemisphere, the convective motions inject negative/positive helicity into each hemisphere. The simulations show that: (i) On a north-south orientated PIL, both differential rotation and convective motions inject the same sign of helicity which matches that required to reproduce the hemispheric pattern of filaments. (ii) On a high latitude east-west orientated polar crown or sub-polar crown PIL, the vorticity of the cells has to be approximately 2-3 times greater than the local differential rotation gradient in order to overcome the incorrect sign of helicity injection from differential rotation. (iii) In the declining phase of the cycle, as a bipole interacts with the polar field, in some cases helicity condensation can reverse the effect of differential rotation along the East-West lead arm, but not in all cases. The results show that this newly developed concept of magnetic helicity injection and condensation is a viable method to explain the hemispheric pattern of filaments in conjunction with the mechanisms used in Yeates et al. (2008). Future observational studies should focus on determining the vorticity component within convective motions to determine, both its magnitude and latitudinal variation relative to the differential rotation gradient on the Sun.

  12. A framework for predicting global silicate weathering and CO2 drawdown rates over geologic time-scales.

    Hilley, George E; Porder, Stephen

    2008-11-04

    Global silicate weathering drives long-time-scale fluctuations in atmospheric CO(2). While tectonics, climate, and rock-type influence silicate weathering, it is unclear how these factors combine to drive global rates. Here, we explore whether local erosion rates, GCM-derived dust fluxes, temperature, and water balance can capture global variation in silicate weathering. Our spatially explicit approach predicts 1.9-4.6 x 10(13) mols of Si weathered globally per year, within a factor of 4-10 of estimates of global silicate fluxes derived from riverine measurements. Similarly, our watershed-based estimates are within a factor of 4-18 (mean of 5.3) of the silica fluxes measured in the world's ten largest rivers. Eighty percent of total global silicate weathering product traveling as dissolved load occurs within a narrow range (0.01-0.5 mm/year) of erosion rates. Assuming each mol of Mg or Ca reacts with 1 mol of CO(2), 1.5-3.3 x 10(8) tons/year of CO(2) is consumed by silicate weathering, consistent with previously published estimates. Approximately 50% of this drawdown occurs in the world's active mountain belts, emphasizing the importance of tectonic regulation of global climate over geologic timescales.

  13. Extreme events in total ozone: Spatio-temporal analysis from local to global scale

    Rieder, Harald E.; Staehelin, Johannes; Maeder, Jörg A.; Ribatet, Mathieu; di Rocco, Stefania; Jancso, Leonhardt M.; Peter, Thomas; Davison, Anthony C.

    2010-05-01

    dynamics (NAO, ENSO) on total ozone is a global feature in the northern mid-latitudes (Rieder et al., 2010c). In a next step frequency distributions of extreme events are analyzed on global scale (northern and southern mid-latitudes). A specific focus here is whether findings gained through analysis of long-term European ground based stations can be clearly identified as a global phenomenon. By showing results from these three types of studies an overview of extreme events in total ozone (and the dynamical and chemical features leading to those) will be presented from local to global scales. References: Coles, S.: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer Series in Statistics, ISBN:1852334592, Springer, Berlin, 2001. Ribatet, M.: POT: Modelling peaks over a threshold, R News, 7, 34-36, 2007. Rieder, H.E., Staehelin, J., Maeder, J.A., Ribatet, M., Stübi, R., Weihs, P., Holawe, F., Peter, T., and A.D., Davison (2010): Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part I: Application of extreme value theory, to be submitted to ACPD. Rieder, H.E., Staehelin, J., Maeder, J.A., Ribatet, M., Stübi, R., Weihs, P., Holawe, F., Peter, T., and A.D., Davison (2010): Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part II: Fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry and effects on mean values and long-term changes, to be submitted to ACPD. Rieder, H.E., Jancso, L., Staehelin, J., Maeder, J.A., Ribatet, Peter, T., and A.D., Davison (2010): Extreme events in total ozone over the northern mid-latitudes: A case study based on long-term data sets from 5 ground-based stations, in preparation. Staehelin, J., Renaud, A., Bader, J., McPeters, R., Viatte, P., Hoegger, B., Bugnion, V., Giroud, M., and Schill, H.: Total ozone series at Arosa (Switzerland): Homogenization and data comparison, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D5), 5827-5842, doi:10.1029/97JD02402, 1998a. Staehelin, J., Kegel, R., and Harris, N. R.: Trend analysis of the homogenized total ozone series of Arosa

  14. Leading Educational Change and Improvement at Scale: Some Inconvenient Truths about System Performance

    Harris, Alma; Jones, Michelle

    2017-01-01

    The challenges of securing educational change and transformation, at scale, remain considerable. While sustained progress has been made in some education systems (Fullan, 2009; Hargreaves & Shirley, 2009) generally, it remains the case that the pathway to large-scale, system improvement is far from easy or straightforward. While large-scale…

  15. Using satellite data to improve the leaf phenology of a global terrestrial biosphere model

    MacBean, N.; Maignan, F.; Peylin, P.; Bacour, C.; Bréon, F.-M.; Ciais, P.

    2015-12-01

    Correct representation of seasonal leaf dynamics is crucial for terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), but many such models cannot accurately reproduce observations of leaf onset and senescence. Here we optimised the phenology-related parameters of the ORCHIDEE TBM using satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data (MODIS NDVI v5) that are linearly related to the model fAPAR. We found the misfit between the observations and the model decreased after optimisation for all boreal and temperate deciduous plant functional types, primarily due to an earlier onset of leaf senescence. The model bias was only partially reduced for tropical deciduous trees and no improvement was seen for natural C4 grasses. Spatial validation demonstrated the generality of the posterior parameters for use in global simulations, with an increase in global median correlation of 0.56 to 0.67. The simulated global mean annual gross primary productivity (GPP) decreased by ~ 10 PgC yr-1 over the 1990-2010 period due to the substantially shortened growing season length (GSL - by up to 30 days in the Northern Hemisphere), thus reducing the positive bias and improving the seasonal dynamics of ORCHIDEE compared to independent data-based estimates. Finally, the optimisations led to changes in the strength and location of the trends in the simulated vegetation productivity as represented by the GSL and mean annual fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR), suggesting care should be taken when using un-calibrated models in attribution studies. We suggest that the framework presented here can be applied for improving the phenology of all global TBMs.

  16. Teaching quality improvement in Tanzania: a model of inter-professional partnership for global health development

    John Kvasnicka

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Education is a universal need in health care and a tool for quality improvement. We developed a two-day medical education conference in Iringa, Tanzania, that has now evolved to teach the basics of quality improvement to an inter-professional audience from the 28 hospitals in the southern zone of the Tanzania Christian Social Services Commission (CSSC. Methods: We describe the planning, budget, implementation, evolution and evaluation of this on-going medical education conference. Representatives from medicine, nursing, pharmacy and administration from all 28 hospitals were invited to attend. Attendees evaluated the conference and individual lectures on a 5 point scale. In addition, attendees were asked to rate the most important learning aspect of the conference. Results: Over 100 Tanzanian health professionals and administrators from the 28 hospitals in the southern zone of the CSSC attended. Evaluation forms were completed by 82 attendees. The 2016 conference received an overall rating of 4.0 on a 5 point scale. The individual lectures received an overall rating of 4.2 on a 5 point scale. Quality improvement techniques and co-leadership topics were rated as most useful by attendees. Conclusion: We provide a framework for developing a medical education conference that can be replicated in other settings. Teaching the basics of quality improvement by having hospital leadership teams develop individual quality improvement projects is a highly useful method of instruction.

  17. Infrastructure for large-scale quality-improvement projects: early lessons from North Carolina Improving Performance in Practice.

    Newton, Warren P; Lefebvre, Ann; Donahue, Katrina E; Bacon, Thomas; Dobson, Allen

    2010-01-01

    Little is known regarding how to accomplish large-scale health care improvement. Our goal is to improve the quality of chronic disease care in all primary care practices throughout North Carolina. Methods for improvement include (1) common quality measures and shared data system; (2) rapid cycle improvement principles; (3) quality-improvement consultants (QICs), or practice facilitators; (4) learning networks; and (5) alignment of incentives. We emphasized a community-based strategy and developing a statewide infrastructure. Results are reported from the first 2 years of the North Carolina Improving Performance in Practice (IPIP) project. A coalition was formed to include professional societies, North Carolina AHEC, Community Care of North Carolina, insurers, and other organizations. Wave One started with 18 practices in 2 of 9 regions of the state. Quality-improvement consultants recruited practices. Over 80 percent of practices attended all quarterly regional meetings. In 9 months, almost all diabetes measures improved, and a bundled asthma measure improved from 33 to 58 percent. Overall, the magnitude of improvement was clinically and statistically significant (P = .001). Quality improvements were maintained on review 1 year later. Wave Two has spread to 103 practices in all 9 regions of the state, with 42 additional practices beginning the enrollment process. Large-scale health care quality improvement is feasible, when broadly supported by statewide leadership and community infrastructure. Practice-collected data and lack of a control group are limitations of the study design. Future priorities include maintaining improved sustainability for practices and communities. Our long-term goal is to transform all 2000 primary-care practices in our state.

  18. Global NDE Best Practice for Technology Improvement, Outage Management, Foreign Material Exclusion and Dose Control

    Glass, S. W.; Mohr, F.

    2010-01-01

    Non Destructive Examination (NDE) is a critical element of both Boiling Water and Pressurized Water Reactor outages. Frequently this includes critical path activity so both the utility and the inspection vendor are under intense pressure to perform the work quickly. Concurrent with AREVA's new global organization of NDE resources, AREVA NDE SOLUTIONS, efforts have intensified for global application of lessons learned and best practices. These best practices include new developments as well as continuous improvements to well established tools and NDE techniques. Advancements range from steam generator robots, advanced steam generator deposit characterization sensors and method, new phased array approaches for PWR and BWR reactor vessel examination, new sensors and approaches for RPV head examinations, plus advanced internals examination robots and methods. In addition to specialized tools and techniques, best practice includes numerous management innovations. AREVA's multi-disciplined integrated nuclear worker strategy helps to minimize the total number of personnel deployed to multi-task outages. Specific design and on-site practice has been implemented to minimize or eliminate foreign material from the reactor system and vigorous pursuit of dose management practices keeps our nuclear worker dose as low as reasonably achievable. The industry is moving to much more conservative nuclear worker dose limits. While this is proving to be an issue with many vendors, AREVA has had an internal policy of <2R since 2006. Globalizing the organization also helps AREVA manage peaks and unplanned emergency inspections from an enlarged pool of globally qualified inspection personnel and tools. (Author)

  19. Free Global Dsm Assessment on Large Scale Areas Exploiting the Potentialities of the Innovative Google Earth Engine Platform

    Nascetti, A.; Di Rita, M.; Ravanelli, R.; Amicuzi, M.; Esposito, S.; Crespi, M.

    2017-05-01

    The high-performance cloud-computing platform Google Earth Engine has been developed for global-scale analysis based on the Earth observation data. In particular, in this work, the geometric accuracy of the two most used nearly-global free DSMs (SRTM and ASTER) has been evaluated on the territories of four American States (Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, Utah) and one Italian Region (Trentino Alto- Adige, Northern Italy) exploiting the potentiality of this platform. These are large areas characterized by different terrain morphology, land covers and slopes. The assessment has been performed using two different reference DSMs: the USGS National Elevation Dataset (NED) and a LiDAR acquisition. The DSMs accuracy has been evaluated through computation of standard statistic parameters, both at global scale (considering the whole State/Region) and in function of the terrain morphology using several slope classes. The geometric accuracy in terms of Standard deviation and NMAD, for SRTM range from 2-3 meters in the first slope class to about 45 meters in the last one, whereas for ASTER, the values range from 5-6 to 30 meters. In general, the performed analysis shows a better accuracy for the SRTM in the flat areas whereas the ASTER GDEM is more reliable in the steep areas, where the slopes increase. These preliminary results highlight the GEE potentialities to perform DSM assessment on a global scale.

  20. FREE GLOBAL DSM ASSESSMENT ON LARGE SCALE AREAS EXPLOITING THE POTENTIALITIES OF THE INNOVATIVE GOOGLE EARTH ENGINE PLATFORM

    A. Nascetti

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The high-performance cloud-computing platform Google Earth Engine has been developed for global-scale analysis based on the Earth observation data. In particular, in this work, the geometric accuracy of the two most used nearly-global free DSMs (SRTM and ASTER has been evaluated on the territories of four American States (Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, Utah and one Italian Region (Trentino Alto- Adige, Northern Italy exploiting the potentiality of this platform. These are large areas characterized by different terrain morphology, land covers and slopes. The assessment has been performed using two different reference DSMs: the USGS National Elevation Dataset (NED and a LiDAR acquisition. The DSMs accuracy has been evaluated through computation of standard statistic parameters, both at global scale (considering the whole State/Region and in function of the terrain morphology using several slope classes. The geometric accuracy in terms of Standard deviation and NMAD, for SRTM range from 2-3 meters in the first slope class to about 45 meters in the last one, whereas for ASTER, the values range from 5-6 to 30 meters. In general, the performed analysis shows a better accuracy for the SRTM in the flat areas whereas the ASTER GDEM is more reliable in the steep areas, where the slopes increase. These preliminary results highlight the GEE potentialities to perform DSM assessment on a global scale.

  1. Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balances

    G. Tang

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Satellite-based data, such as vegetation type and fractional vegetation cover, are widely used in hydrologic models to prescribe the vegetation state in a study region. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM simulate land surface hydrology. Incorporation of satellite-based data into a DGVM may enhance a model's ability to simulate land surface hydrology by reducing the task of model parameterization and providing distributed information on land characteristics. The objectives of this study are to (i modify a DGVM for simulating land surface water balances; (ii evaluate the modified model in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET, soil moisture, and surface runoff at regional or watershed scales; and (iii gain insight into the ability of both the original and modified model to simulate large spatial scale land surface hydrology. To achieve these objectives, we introduce the "LPJ-hydrology" (LH model which incorporates satellite-based data into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ DGVM. To evaluate the model we ran LH using historical (1981–2006 climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells for the conterminous US and for the entire world using coarser climate and land cover data. We evaluated the simulated ET, soil moisture, and surface runoff using a set of observed or simulated data at different spatial scales. Our results demonstrate that spatial patterns of LH-simulated annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data for the US; LH-modeled monthly stream flow for 12 major rivers in the US was consistent with observed values respectively during the years 1981–2006 (R2 > 0.46, p < 0.01; Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient > 0.52. The modeled mean annual discharges for 10 major rivers worldwide also agreed well (differences < 15% with observed values for these rivers. Compared to a degree-day method for snowmelt computation, the addition of the solar radiation effect on snowmelt

  2. Carbon cost of plant nitrogen acquisition: global carbon cycle impact from an improved plant nitrogen cycle in the Community Land Model.

    Shi, Mingjie; Fisher, Joshua B; Brzostek, Edward R; Phillips, Richard P

    2016-03-01

    Plants typically expend a significant portion of their available carbon (C) on nutrient acquisition - C that could otherwise support growth. However, given that most global terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) do not include the C cost of nutrient acquisition, these models fail to represent current and future constraints to the land C sink. Here, we integrated a plant productivity-optimized nutrient acquisition model - the Fixation and Uptake of Nitrogen Model - into one of the most widely used TBMs, the Community Land Model. Global plant nitrogen (N) uptake is dynamically simulated in the coupled model based on the C costs of N acquisition from mycorrhizal roots, nonmycorrhizal roots, N-fixing microbes, and retranslocation (from senescing leaves). We find that at the global scale, plants spend 2.4 Pg C yr(-1) to acquire 1.0 Pg N yr(-1) , and that the C cost of N acquisition leads to a downregulation of global net primary production (NPP) by 13%. Mycorrhizal uptake represented the dominant pathway by which N is acquired, accounting for ~66% of the N uptake by plants. Notably, roots associating with arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi - generally considered for their role in phosphorus (P) acquisition - are estimated to be the primary source of global plant N uptake owing to the dominance of AM-associated plants in mid- and low-latitude biomes. Overall, our coupled model improves the representations of NPP downregulation globally and generates spatially explicit patterns of belowground C allocation, soil N uptake, and N retranslocation at the global scale. Such model improvements are critical for predicting how plant responses to altered N availability (owing to N deposition, rising atmospheric CO2 , and warming temperatures) may impact the land C sink. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Modeling lightning-NOx chemistry on a sub-grid scale in a global chemical transport model

    A. Gressent

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available For the first time, a plume-in-grid approach is implemented in a chemical transport model (CTM to parameterize the effects of the nonlinear reactions occurring within high concentrated NOx plumes from lightning NOx emissions (LNOx in the upper troposphere. It is characterized by a set of parameters including the plume lifetime, the effective reaction rate constant related to NOx–O3 chemical interactions, and the fractions of NOx conversion into HNO3 within the plume. Parameter estimates were made using the Dynamical Simple Model of Atmospheric Chemical Complexity (DSMACC box model, simple plume dispersion simulations, and the 3-D Meso-NH (non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model. In order to assess the impact of the LNOx plume approach on the NOx and O3 distributions on a large scale, simulations for the year 2006 were performed using the GEOS-Chem global model with a horizontal resolution of 2° × 2.5°. The implementation of the LNOx parameterization implies an NOx and O3 decrease on a large scale over the region characterized by a strong lightning activity (up to 25 and 8 %, respectively, over central Africa in July and a relative increase downwind of LNOx emissions (up to 18 and 2 % for NOx and O3, respectively, in July. The calculated variability in NOx and O3 mixing ratios around the mean value according to the known uncertainties in the parameter estimates is at a maximum over continental tropical regions with ΔNOx [−33.1, +29.7] ppt and ΔO3 [−1.56, +2.16] ppb, in January, and ΔNOx [−14.3, +21] ppt and ΔO3 [−1.18, +1.93] ppb, in July, mainly depending on the determination of the diffusion properties of the atmosphere and the initial NO mixing ratio injected by lightning. This approach allows us (i to reproduce a more realistic lightning NOx chemistry leading to better NOx and O3 distributions on the large scale and (ii to focus on other improvements to reduce remaining uncertainties from processes

  4. World Health Organization global policy for improvement of oral health--World Health Assembly 2007

    Petersen, Poul Erik

    2008-01-01

    The World Health Organization (WHO) Global Oral Health Programme has worked hard over the past five years to increase the awareness of oral health worldwide as an important component of general health and quality of life. Meanwhile, oral disease is still a major public health problem in high income...... countries and the burden of oral disease is growing in many low- and middle income countries. In the World Oral Health Report 2003, the WHO Global Oral Health Programme formulated the policies and the necessary actions for the improvement of oral health. The strategy is that oral disease prevention...... and the promotion of oral health needs to be integrated with chronic disease prevention and general health promotion as the risks to health are linked. The World Health Assembly (WHA) and the Executive Board (EB) are supreme governance bodies of WHO and for the first time in 25 years oral health was subject...

  5. [Improving global access to new vaccines: intellectual property, technology transfer, and regulatory pathways].

    Crager, Sara Eve

    2015-01-01

    The 2012 World Health Assembly Global Vaccine Action Plan called for global access to new vaccines within 5 years of licensure. Current approaches have proven insufficient to achieve sustainable vaccine pricing within such a timeline. Paralleling the successful strategy of generic competition to bring down drug prices, a clear consensus is emerging that market entry of multiple suppliers is a critical factor in expeditiously bringing down prices of new vaccines. In this context, key target objectives for improving access to new vaccines include overcoming intellectual property obstacles, streamlining regulatory pathways for biosimilar vaccines, and reducing market entry timelines for developing-country vaccine manufacturers by transfer of technology and know-how. I propose an intellectual property, technology, and know-how bank as a new approach to facilitate widespread access to new vaccines in low- and middle-income countries by efficient transfer of patented vaccine technologies to multiple developing-country vaccine manufacturers.

  6. Improving global access to new vaccines: intellectual property, technology transfer, and regulatory pathways.

    Crager, Sara Eve

    2014-11-01

    The 2012 World Health Assembly Global Vaccine Action Plan called for global access to new vaccines within 5 years of licensure. Current approaches have proven insufficient to achieve sustainable vaccine pricing within such a timeline. Paralleling the successful strategy of generic competition to bring down drug prices, a clear consensus is emerging that market entry of multiple suppliers is a critical factor in expeditiously bringing down prices of new vaccines. In this context, key target objectives for improving access to new vaccines include overcoming intellectual property obstacles, streamlining regulatory pathways for biosimilar vaccines, and reducing market entry timelines for developing-country vaccine manufacturers by transfer of technology and know-how. I propose an intellectual property, technology, and know-how bank as a new approach to facilitate widespread access to new vaccines in low- and middle-income countries by efficient transfer of patented vaccine technologies to multiple developing-country vaccine manufacturers.

  7. ALM-FATES: Using dynamic vegetation and demography to capture changes in forest carbon cycling and competition at the global scale

    Holm, J. A.; Knox, R. G.; Koven, C.; Riley, W. J.; Bisht, G.; Fisher, R.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Dietze, M.; Chambers, J. Q.

    2017-12-01

    Th