WorldWideScience

Sample records for global function model

  1. Local and Global Function Model of the Liver

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Hesheng, E-mail: hesheng@umich.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Feng, Mary [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Jackson, Andrew [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Ten Haken, Randall K.; Lawrence, Theodore S. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Cao, Yue [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Department of Radiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To develop a local and global function model in the liver based on regional and organ function measurements to support individualized adaptive radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: A local and global model for liver function was developed to include both functional volume and the effect of functional variation of subunits. Adopting the assumption of parallel architecture in the liver, the global function was composed of a sum of local function probabilities of subunits, varying between 0 and 1. The model was fit to 59 datasets of liver regional and organ function measures from 23 patients obtained before, during, and 1 month after RT. The local function probabilities of subunits were modeled by a sigmoid function in relating to MRI-derived portal venous perfusion values. The global function was fitted to a logarithm of an indocyanine green retention rate at 15 minutes (an overall liver function measure). Cross-validation was performed by leave-m-out tests. The model was further evaluated by fitting to the data divided according to whether the patients had hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or not. Results: The liver function model showed that (1) a perfusion value of 68.6 mL/(100 g · min) yielded a local function probability of 0.5; (2) the probability reached 0.9 at a perfusion value of 98 mL/(100 g · min); and (3) at a probability of 0.03 [corresponding perfusion of 38 mL/(100 g · min)] or lower, the contribution to global function was lost. Cross-validations showed that the model parameters were stable. The model fitted to the data from the patients with HCC indicated that the same amount of portal venous perfusion was translated into less local function probability than in the patients with non-HCC tumors. Conclusions: The developed liver function model could provide a means to better assess individual and regional dose-responses of hepatic functions, and provide guidance for individualized treatment planning of RT.

  2. Global sensitivity analysis of computer models with functional inputs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iooss, Bertrand; Ribatet, Mathieu

    2009-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the influence of uncertain model inputs on the response variability of a numerical model. The common quantitative methods are appropriate with computer codes having scalar model inputs. This paper aims at illustrating different variance-based sensitivity analysis techniques, based on the so-called Sobol's indices, when some model inputs are functional, such as stochastic processes or random spatial fields. In this work, we focus on large cpu time computer codes which need a preliminary metamodeling step before performing the sensitivity analysis. We propose the use of the joint modeling approach, i.e., modeling simultaneously the mean and the dispersion of the code outputs using two interlinked generalized linear models (GLMs) or generalized additive models (GAMs). The 'mean model' allows to estimate the sensitivity indices of each scalar model inputs, while the 'dispersion model' allows to derive the total sensitivity index of the functional model inputs. The proposed approach is compared to some classical sensitivity analysis methodologies on an analytical function. Lastly, the new methodology is applied to an industrial computer code that simulates the nuclear fuel irradiation.

  3. Globally COnstrained Local Function Approximation via Hierarchical Modelling, a Framework for System Modelling under Partial Information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øjelund, Henrik; Sadegh, Payman

    2000-01-01

    be obtained. This paper presents a new approach for system modelling under partial (global) information (or the so called Gray-box modelling) that seeks to perserve the benefits of the global as well as local methodologies sithin a unified framework. While the proposed technique relies on local approximations......Local function approximations concern fitting low order models to weighted data in neighbourhoods of the points where the approximations are desired. Despite their generality and convenience of use, local models typically suffer, among others, from difficulties arising in physical interpretation...... simultaneously with the (local estimates of) function values. The approach is applied to modelling of a linear time variant dynamic system under prior linear time invariant structure where local regression fails as a result of high dimensionality....

  4. A method for improving global pyranometer measurements by modeling responsivity functions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lester, A. [Smith College, Northampton, MA 01063 (United States); Myers, D.R. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 1617 Cole Blvd., Golden, CO 80401 (United States)

    2006-03-15

    Accurate global solar radiation measurements are crucial to climate change research and the development of solar energy technologies. Pyranometers produce an electrical signal proportional to global irradiance. The signal-to-irradiance ratio is the responsivity (RS) of the instrument (RS=signal/irradiance=microvolts/(W/m{sup 2})). Most engineering measurements are made using a constant RS. It is known that RS varies with day of year, zenith angle, and net infrared radiation. This study proposes a method to find an RS function to model a pyranometer's changing RS. Using a reference irradiance calculated from direct and diffuse instruments, we found instantaneous RS for two global pyranometers over 31 sunny days in a two-year period. We performed successive independent regressions of the error between the constant and instantaneous RS with respect to zenith angle, day of year, and net infrared to obtain an RS function. An alternative method replaced the infrared regression with an independently developed technique to account for thermal offset. Results show improved uncertainties with the function method than with the single-calibration value. Lower uncertainties also occur using a black-and-white (8-48), rather than all-black (PSP), shaded pyranometer as the diffuse reference instrument. We conclude that the function method is extremely effective in reducing uncertainty in the irradiance measurements for global PSP pyranometers if they are calibrated at the deployment site. Furthermore, it was found that the function method accounts for the pyranometer's thermal offset, rendering further corrections unnecessary. The improvements in irradiance data achieved in this study will serve to increase the accuracy of solar energy assessments and atmospheric research. (author)

  5. Lyapunov functions and global stability for SIR and SEIR models with age-dependent susceptibility

    KAUST Repository

    Korobeinikov, Andrei; Melnik, Andrey V.

    2013-01-01

    We consider global asymptotic properties for the SIR and SEIR age structured models for infectious diseases where the susceptibility depends on the age. Using the direct Lyapunov method with Volterra type Lyapunov functions, we establish conditions for the global stability of a unique endemic steady state and the infection-free steady state.

  6. A global weighted mean temperature model based on empirical orthogonal function analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qinzheng; Chen, Peng; Sun, Langlang; Ma, Xiaping

    2018-03-01

    A global empirical orthogonal function (EOF) model of the tropospheric weighted mean temperature called GEOFM_Tm was developed using high-precision Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) Atmosphere Tm data during the years 2008-2014. Due to the quick convergence of EOF decomposition, it is possible to use the first four EOF series, which consists base functions Uk and associated coefficients Pk, to represent 99.99% of the overall variance of the original data sets and its spatial-temporal variations. Results show that U1 displays a prominent latitude distribution profile with positive peaks located at low latitude region. U2 manifests an asymmetric pattern that positive values occurred over 30° in the Northern Hemisphere, and negative values were observed at other regions. U3 and U4 displayed significant anomalies in Tibet and North America, respectively. Annual variation is the major component of the first and second associated coefficients P1 and P2, whereas P3 and P4 mainly reflects both annual and semi-annual variation components. Furthermore, the performance of constructed GEOFM_Tm was validated by comparison with GTm_III and GTm_N with different kinds of data including GGOS Atmosphere Tm data in 2015 and radiosonde data from Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) in 2014. Generally speaking, GEOFM_Tm can achieve the same accuracy and reliability as GTm_III and GTm_N models in a global scale, even has improved in the Antarctic and Greenland regions. The MAE and RMS of GEOFM_Tm tend to be 2.49 K and 3.14 K with respect to GGOS Tm data, respectively; and 3.38 K and 4.23 K with respect to IGRA sounding data, respectively. In addition, those three models have higher precision at low latitude than middle and high latitude regions. The magnitude of Tm remains at the range of 220-300 K, presented a high correlation with geographic latitude. In the Northern Hemisphere, there was a significant enhancement at high latitude region reaching 270 K during summer

  7. COLUMBUS. A global gas market model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hecking, Harald; Panke, Timo

    2012-03-15

    A model of the global gas market is presented which in its basic version optimises the future development of production, transport and storage capacities as well as the actual gas flows around the world assuming perfect competition. Besides the transport of natural gas via pipelines also the global market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is modelled using a hub-and-spoke approach. While in the basic version of the model an inelastic demand and a piecewise-linear supply function are used, both can be changed easily, e.g. to a Golombek style production function or a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) demand function. Due to the usage of mixed complementary programming (MCP) the model additionally allows for the simulation of strategic behaviour of different players in the gas market, e.g. the gas producers.

  8. Tree-Based Global Model Tests for Polytomous Rasch Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komboz, Basil; Strobl, Carolin; Zeileis, Achim

    2018-01-01

    Psychometric measurement models are only valid if measurement invariance holds between test takers of different groups. Global model tests, such as the well-established likelihood ratio (LR) test, are sensitive to violations of measurement invariance, such as differential item functioning and differential step functioning. However, these…

  9. Mixed kernel function support vector regression for global sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Kai; Lu, Zhenzhou; Wei, Yuhao; Shi, Yan; Zhou, Yicheng

    2017-11-01

    Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) plays an important role in exploring the respective effects of input variables on an assigned output response. Amongst the wide sensitivity analyses in literature, the Sobol indices have attracted much attention since they can provide accurate information for most models. In this paper, a mixed kernel function (MKF) based support vector regression (SVR) model is employed to evaluate the Sobol indices at low computational cost. By the proposed derivation, the estimation of the Sobol indices can be obtained by post-processing the coefficients of the SVR meta-model. The MKF is constituted by the orthogonal polynomials kernel function and Gaussian radial basis kernel function, thus the MKF possesses both the global characteristic advantage of the polynomials kernel function and the local characteristic advantage of the Gaussian radial basis kernel function. The proposed approach is suitable for high-dimensional and non-linear problems. Performance of the proposed approach is validated by various analytical functions and compared with the popular polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). Results demonstrate that the proposed approach is an efficient method for global sensitivity analysis.

  10. Assessing parameter variability in a photosynthesis model within and between plant functional types using global Fluxnet eddy covariance data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenendijk, M.; Dolman, A.J.; Molen, van der M.K.; Leuning, R.; Arneth, A.; Delpierre, N.; Gash, J.H.C.; Lindroth, A.; Richardson, A.D.; Verbeeck, H.; Wohlfahrt, G.

    2011-01-01

    The vegetation component in climate models has advanced since the late 1960s from a uniform prescription of surface parameters to plant functional types (PFTs). PFTs are used in global land-surface models to provide parameter values for every model grid cell. With a simple photosynthesis model we

  11. Modeling resting-state functional networks when the cortex falls asleep: local and global changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deco, Gustavo; Hagmann, Patric; Hudetz, Anthony G; Tononi, Giulio

    2014-12-01

    The transition from wakefulness to sleep represents the most conspicuous change in behavior and the level of consciousness occurring in the healthy brain. It is accompanied by similarly conspicuous changes in neural dynamics, traditionally exemplified by the change from "desynchronized" electroencephalogram activity in wake to globally synchronized slow wave activity of early sleep. However, unit and local field recordings indicate that the transition is more gradual than it might appear: On one hand, local slow waves already appear during wake; on the other hand, slow sleep waves are only rarely global. Studies with functional magnetic resonance imaging also reveal changes in resting-state functional connectivity (FC) between wake and slow wave sleep. However, it remains unclear how resting-state networks may change during this transition period. Here, we employ large-scale modeling of the human cortico-cortical anatomical connectivity to evaluate changes in resting-state FC when the model "falls asleep" due to the progressive decrease in arousal-promoting neuromodulation. When cholinergic neuromodulation is parametrically decreased, local slow waves appear, while the overall organization of resting-state networks does not change. Furthermore, we show that these local slow waves are structured macroscopically in networks that resemble the resting-state networks. In contrast, when the neuromodulator decrease further to very low levels, slow waves become global and resting-state networks merge into a single undifferentiated, broadly synchronized network. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Using Green's Functions to initialize and adjust a global, eddying ocean biogeochemistry general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brix, H.; Menemenlis, D.; Hill, C.; Dutkiewicz, S.; Jahn, O.; Wang, D.; Bowman, K.; Zhang, H.

    2015-11-01

    The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) Flux Project aims to attribute changes in the atmospheric accumulation of carbon dioxide to spatially resolved fluxes by utilizing the full suite of NASA data, models, and assimilation capabilities. For the oceanic part of this project, we introduce ECCO2-Darwin, a new ocean biogeochemistry general circulation model based on combining the following pre-existing components: (i) a full-depth, eddying, global-ocean configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), (ii) an adjoint-method-based estimate of ocean circulation from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II (ECCO2) project, (iii) the MIT ecosystem model "Darwin", and (iv) a marine carbon chemistry model. Air-sea gas exchange coefficients and initial conditions of dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, and oxygen are adjusted using a Green's Functions approach in order to optimize modeled air-sea CO2 fluxes. Data constraints include observations of carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2) for 2009-2010, global air-sea CO2 flux estimates, and the seasonal cycle of the Takahashi et al. (2009) Atlas. The model sensitivity experiments (or Green's Functions) include simulations that start from different initial conditions as well as experiments that perturb air-sea gas exchange parameters and the ratio of particulate inorganic to organic carbon. The Green's Functions approach yields a linear combination of these sensitivity experiments that minimizes model-data differences. The resulting initial conditions and gas exchange coefficients are then used to integrate the ECCO2-Darwin model forward. Despite the small number (six) of control parameters, the adjusted simulation is significantly closer to the data constraints (37% cost function reduction, i.e., reduction in the model-data difference, relative to the baseline simulation) and to independent observations (e.g., alkalinity). The adjusted air-sea gas

  13. A global central banker competency model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W. Brits

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: No comprehensive, integrated competency model exists for central bankers. Due to the importance of central banks in the context of the ongoing global financial crisis, it was deemed necessary to design and validate such a model. Research purpose: To craft and validate a comprehensive, integrated global central banker competency model (GCBCM and to assess whether central banks using the GCBCM for training have a higher global influence. Motivation for the study: Limited consensus exists globally about what constitutes a ‘competent’ central banker. A quantitatively validated GCBCM would make a significant contribution to enhancing central banker effectiveness, and also provide a solid foundation for effective people management. Research approach, design and method: A blended quantitative and qualitative research approach was taken. Two sets of hypotheses were tested regarding the relationships between the GCBCM and the training offered, using the model on the one hand, and a central bank’s global influence on the other. Main findings: The GCBCM was generally accepted across all participating central banks globally, although some differences were found between central banks with higher and lower global influence. The actual training offered by central banks in terms of the model, however, is generally limited to technical-functional skills. The GCBCM is therefore at present predominantly aspirational. Significant differences were found regarding the training offered. Practical/managerial implications: By adopting the GCBCM, central banks would be able to develop organisation-specific competency models in order to enhance their organisational capabilities and play their increasingly important global role more effectively. Contribution: A generic conceptual framework for the crafting of a competency model with evaluation criteria was developed. A GCBCM was quantitatively validated.

  14. Global functioning and disability in dissociative disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller-Pfeiffer, Christoph; Rufibach, Kaspar; Perron, Noelle; Wyss, Daniela; Kuenzler, Cornelia; Prezewowsky, Cornelia; Pitman, Roger K; Rufer, Michael

    2012-12-30

    Dissociative disorders are frequent comorbid conditions of other mental disorders. Yet, there is controversy about their clinical relevance, and little systematic research has been done on how they influence global functioning. Outpatients and day care patients (N=160) of several psychiatric units in Switzerland were assessed with the Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM)-IV Axis I Disorders, Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Dissociative Disorders, Global Assessment of Functioning Scale, and World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule-II. The association between subjects with a dissociative disorder (N=30) and functional impairment after accounting for non-dissociative axis I disorders was evaluated by linear regression models. We found a proportion of 18.8% dissociative disorders (dissociative amnesia=0%, dissociative fugue=0.6%, depersonalization disorder=4.4%, dissociative identity disorder=7.5%, dissociative disorder-not-otherwise-specified=6.3%) across treatment settings. Adjusted for other axis I disorders, subjects with a comorbid dissociative identity disorder or dissociative disorder-not-otherwise-specified had a median global assessment of functioning score that was 0.86 and 0.88 times, respectively, the score of subjects without a comorbid dissociative disorder. These findings support the hypothesis that complex dissociative disorders, i.e., dissociative identity disorder and dissociative disorder-not-otherwise-specified, contribute to functional impairment above and beyond the impact of co-existing non-dissociative axis I disorders, and that they qualify as "serious mental illness". Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. The Jena Diversity-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (JeDi-DGVM: a diverse approach to representing terrestrial biogeography and biogeochemistry based on plant functional trade-offs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Pavlick

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Terrestrial biosphere models typically abstract the immense diversity of vegetation forms and functioning into a relatively small set of predefined semi-empirical plant functional types (PFTs. There is growing evidence, however, from the field ecology community as well as from modelling studies that current PFT schemes may not adequately represent the observed variations in plant functional traits and their effect on ecosystem functioning. In this paper, we introduce the Jena Diversity-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (JeDi-DGVM as a new approach to terrestrial biosphere modelling with a richer representation of functional diversity than traditional modelling approaches based on a small number of fixed PFTs. JeDi-DGVM simulates the performance of a large number of randomly generated plant growth strategies, each defined by a set of 15 trait parameters which characterize various aspects of plant functioning including carbon allocation, ecophysiology and phenology. Each trait parameter is involved in one or more functional trade-offs. These trade-offs ultimately determine whether a strategy is able to survive under the climatic conditions in a given model grid cell and its performance relative to the other strategies. The biogeochemical fluxes and land surface properties of the individual strategies are aggregated to the grid-cell scale using a mass-based weighting scheme. We evaluate the simulated global biogeochemical patterns against a variety of field and satellite-based observations following a protocol established by the Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project. The land surface fluxes and vegetation structural properties are reasonably well simulated by JeDi-DGVM, and compare favourably with other state-of-the-art global vegetation models. We also evaluate the simulated patterns of functional diversity and the sensitivity of the JeDi-DGVM modelling approach to the number of sampled strategies. Altogether, the results demonstrate the

  16. Global identifiability of linear compartmental models--a computer algebra algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Audoly, S; D'Angiò, L; Saccomani, M P; Cobelli, C

    1998-01-01

    A priori global identifiability deals with the uniqueness of the solution for the unknown parameters of a model and is, thus, a prerequisite for parameter estimation of biological dynamic models. Global identifiability is however difficult to test, since it requires solving a system of algebraic nonlinear equations which increases both in nonlinearity degree and number of terms and unknowns with increasing model order. In this paper, a computer algebra tool, GLOBI (GLOBal Identifiability) is presented, which combines the topological transfer function method with the Buchberger algorithm, to test global identifiability of linear compartmental models. GLOBI allows for the automatic testing of a priori global identifiability of general structure compartmental models from general multi input-multi output experiments. Examples of usage of GLOBI to analyze a priori global identifiability of some complex biological compartmental models are provided.

  17. A generalized quantitative antibody homeostasis model: maintenance of global antibody equilibrium by effector functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prechl, József

    2017-11-01

    The homeostasis of antibodies can be characterized as a balanced production, target-binding and receptor-mediated elimination regulated by an interaction network, which controls B-cell development and selection. Recently, we proposed a quantitative model to describe how the concentration and affinity of interacting partners generates a network. Here we argue that this physical, quantitative approach can be extended for the interpretation of effector functions of antibodies. We define global antibody equilibrium as the zone of molar equivalence of free antibody, free antigen and immune complex concentrations and of dissociation constant of apparent affinity: [Ab]=[Ag]=[AbAg]= K D . This zone corresponds to the biologically relevant K D range of reversible interactions. We show that thermodynamic and kinetic properties of antibody-antigen interactions correlate with immunological functions. The formation of stable, long-lived immune complexes correspond to a decrease of entropy and is a prerequisite for the generation of higher-order complexes. As the energy of formation of complexes increases, we observe a gradual shift from silent clearance to inflammatory reactions. These rules can also be applied to complement activation-related immune effector processes, linking the physicochemical principles of innate and adaptive humoral responses. Affinity of the receptors mediating effector functions shows a wide range of affinities, allowing the continuous sampling of antibody-bound antigen over the complete range of concentrations. The generation of multivalent, multicomponent complexes triggers effector functions by crosslinking these receptors on effector cells with increasing enzymatic degradation potential. Thus, antibody homeostasis is a thermodynamic system with complex network properties, nested into the host organism by proper immunoregulatory and effector pathways. Maintenance of global antibody equilibrium is achieved by innate qualitative signals modulating a

  18. Global unitary fixing and matrix-valued correlations in matrix models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adler, Stephen L.; Horwitz, Lawrence P.

    2003-01-01

    We consider the partition function for a matrix model with a global unitary invariant energy function. We show that the averages over the partition function of global unitary invariant trace polynomials of the matrix variables are the same when calculated with any choice of a global unitary fixing, while averages of such polynomials without a trace define matrix-valued correlation functions, that depend on the choice of unitary fixing. The unitary fixing is formulated within the standard Faddeev-Popov framework, in which the squared Vandermonde determinant emerges as a factor of the complete Faddeev-Popov determinant. We give the ghost representation for the FP determinant, and the corresponding BRST invariance of the unitary-fixed partition function. The formalism is relevant for deriving Ward identities obeyed by matrix-valued correlation functions

  19. Globally-Applicable Predictive Wildfire Model   a Temporal-Spatial GIS Based Risk Analysis Using Data Driven Fuzzy Logic Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Dool, G.

    2017-11-01

    This study (van den Dool, 2017) is a proof of concept for a global predictive wildfire model, in which the temporal-spatial characteristics of wildfires are placed in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and the risk analysis is based on data-driven fuzzy logic functions. The data sources used in this model are available as global datasets, but subdivided into three pilot areas: North America (California/Nevada), Europe (Spain), and Asia (Mongolia), and are downscaled to the highest resolution (3-arc second). The GIS is constructed around three themes: topography, fuel availability and climate. From the topographical data, six derived sub-themes are created and converted to a fuzzy membership based on the catchment area statistics. The fuel availability score is a composite of four data layers: land cover, wood loads, biomass, biovolumes. As input for the climatological sub-model reanalysed daily averaged, weather-related data is used, which is accumulated to a global weekly time-window (to account for the uncertainty within the climatological model) and forms the temporal component of the model. The final product is a wildfire risk score (from 0 to 1) by week, representing the average wildfire risk in an area. To compute the potential wildfire risk the sub-models are combined usinga Multi-Criteria Approach, and the model results are validated against the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve.

  20. Global optimization applied to GPS positioning by ambiguity functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baselga, Sergio

    2010-01-01

    Differential GPS positioning with carrier-phase observables is commonly done in a process that involves determination of the unknown integer ambiguity values. An alternative approach, named the ambiguity function method, was already proposed in the early days of GPS positioning. By making use of a trigonometric function ambiguity unknowns are eliminated from the functional model before the estimation process. This approach has significant advantages, such as ease of use and insensitivity to cycle slips, but requires such high accuracy in the initial approximate coordinates that its use has been practically dismissed from consideration. In this paper a novel strategy is proposed so that the need for highly accurate initial coordinates disappears: the application of a global optimization method to the ambiguity functions model. The use of this strategy enables the ambiguity function method to compete with the present prevailing approach of ambiguity resolution

  1. A global interaction network maps a wiring diagram of cellular function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costanzo, Michael; VanderSluis, Benjamin; Koch, Elizabeth N.; Baryshnikova, Anastasia; Pons, Carles; Tan, Guihong; Wang, Wen; Usaj, Matej; Hanchard, Julia; Lee, Susan D.; Pelechano, Vicent; Styles, Erin B.; Billmann, Maximilian; van Leeuwen, Jolanda; van Dyk, Nydia; Lin, Zhen-Yuan; Kuzmin, Elena; Nelson, Justin; Piotrowski, Jeff S.; Srikumar, Tharan; Bahr, Sondra; Chen, Yiqun; Deshpande, Raamesh; Kurat, Christoph F.; Li, Sheena C.; Li, Zhijian; Usaj, Mojca Mattiazzi; Okada, Hiroki; Pascoe, Natasha; Luis, Bryan-Joseph San; Sharifpoor, Sara; Shuteriqi, Emira; Simpkins, Scott W.; Snider, Jamie; Suresh, Harsha Garadi; Tan, Yizhao; Zhu, Hongwei; Malod-Dognin, Noel; Janjic, Vuk; Przulj, Natasa; Troyanskaya, Olga G.; Stagljar, Igor; Xia, Tian; Ohya, Yoshikazu; Gingras, Anne-Claude; Raught, Brian; Boutros, Michael; Steinmetz, Lars M.; Moore, Claire L.; Rosebrock, Adam P.; Caudy, Amy A.; Myers, Chad L.; Andrews, Brenda; Boone, Charles

    2017-01-01

    We generated a global genetic interaction network for Saccharomyces cerevisiae, constructing over 23 million double mutants, identifying ~550,000 negative and ~350,000 positive genetic interactions. This comprehensive network maps genetic interactions for essential gene pairs, highlighting essential genes as densely connected hubs. Genetic interaction profiles enabled assembly of a hierarchical model of cell function, including modules corresponding to protein complexes and pathways, biological processes, and cellular compartments. Negative interactions connected functionally related genes, mapped core bioprocesses, and identified pleiotropic genes, whereas positive interactions often mapped general regulatory connections among gene pairs, rather than shared functionality. The global network illustrates how coherent sets of genetic interactions connect protein complex and pathway modules to map a functional wiring diagram of the cell. PMID:27708008

  2. Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varela, M.

    2001-01-01

    The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this trend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy system including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs

  3. Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics

    KAUST Repository

    Jeong, Jaehong

    2017-11-28

    Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture the spatial and temporal behavior of these global data sets. Though the geodesic distance is the most natural metric for measuring distance on the surface of a sphere, mathematical limitations have compelled statisticians to use the chordal distance to compute the covariance matrix in many applications instead, which may cause physically unrealistic distortions. Therefore, covariance functions directly defined on a sphere using the geodesic distance are needed. We discuss the issues that arise when dealing with spherical data sets on a global scale and provide references to recent literature. We review the current approaches to building process models on spheres, including the differential operator, the stochastic partial differential equation, the kernel convolution, and the deformation approaches. We illustrate realizations obtained from Gaussian processes with different covariance structures and the use of isotropic and nonstationary covariance models through deformations and geographical indicators for global surface temperature data. To assess the suitability of each method, we compare their log-likelihood values and prediction scores, and we end with a discussion of related research problems.

  4. The Open Global Glacier Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzeion, B.; Maussion, F.

    2017-12-01

    Mountain glaciers are one of the few remaining sub-systems of the global climate system for which no globally applicable, open source, community-driven model exists. Notable examples from the ice sheet community include the Parallel Ice Sheet Model or Elmer/Ice. While the atmospheric modeling community has a long tradition of sharing models (e.g. the Weather Research and Forecasting model) or comparing them (e.g. the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project or CMIP), recent initiatives originating from the glaciological community show a new willingness to better coordinate global research efforts following the CMIP example (e.g. the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project or the Glacier Ice Thickness Estimation Working Group). In the recent past, great advances have been made in the global availability of data and methods relevant for glacier modeling, spanning glacier outlines, automatized glacier centerline identification, bed rock inversion methods, and global topographic data sets. Taken together, these advances now allow the ice dynamics of glaciers to be modeled on a global scale, provided that adequate modeling platforms are available. Here, we present the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), developed to provide a global scale, modular, and open source numerical model framework for consistently simulating past and future global scale glacier change. Global not only in the sense of leading to meaningful results for all glaciers combined, but also for any small ensemble of glaciers, e.g. at the headwater catchment scale. Modular to allow combinations of different approaches to the representation of ice flow and surface mass balance, enabling a new kind of model intercomparison. Open source so that the code can be read and used by anyone and so that new modules can be added and discussed by the community, following the principles of open governance. Consistent in order to provide uncertainty measures at all realizable scales.

  5. Global model of zenith tropospheric delay proposed based on EOF analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Langlang; Chen, Peng; Wei, Erhu; Li, Qinzheng

    2017-07-01

    Tropospheric delay is one of the main error budgets in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements. Many empirical correction models have been developed to compensate this delay, and models which do not require meteorological parameters have received the most attention. This study established a global troposphere zenith total delay (ZTD) model, called Global Empirical Orthogonal Function Troposphere (GEOFT), based on the empirical orthogonal function (EOF, also known as geographically weighted PCAs) analysis method and the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) Atmosphere data from 2012 to 2015. The results showed that ZTD variation could be well represented by the characteristics of the EOF base function Ek and associated coefficients Pk. Here, E1 mainly signifies the equatorial anomaly; E2 represents north-south asymmetry, and E3 and E4 reflects regional variation. Moreover, P1 mainly reflects annual and semiannual variation components; P2 and P3 mainly contains annual variation components, and P4 displays semiannual variation components. We validated the proposed GEOFT model using tropospheric delay data of GGOS ZTD grid data and the tropospheric product of the International GNSS Service (IGS) over the year 2016. The results showed that GEOFT model has high accuracy with bias and RMS of -0.3 and 3.9 cm, respectively, with respect to the GGOS ZTD data, and of -0.8 and 4.1 cm, respectively, with respect to the global IGS tropospheric product. The accuracy of GEOFT demonstrating that the use of the EOF analysis method to characterize ZTD variation is reasonable.

  6. Terrestrial Feedbacks Incorporated in Global Vegetation Models through Observed Trait-Environment Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodegom, P. V.

    2015-12-01

    Most global vegetation models used to evaluate climate change impacts rely on plant functional types to describe vegetation responses to environmental stresses. In a traditional set-up in which vegetation characteristics are considered constant within a vegetation type, the possibility to implement and infer feedback mechanisms are limited as feedback mechanisms will likely involve a changing expression of community trait values. Based on community assembly concepts, we implemented functional trait-environment relationships into a global dynamic vegetation model to quantitatively assess this feature. For the current climate, a different global vegetation distribution was calculated with and without the inclusion of trait variation, emphasizing the importance of feedbacks -in interaction with competitive processes- for the prevailing global patterns. These trait-environmental responses do, however, not necessarily imply adaptive responses of vegetation to changing conditions and may locally lead to a faster turnover in vegetation upon climate change. Indeed, when running climate projections, simulations with trait variation did not yield a more stable or resilient vegetation than those without. Through the different feedback expressions, global and regional carbon and water fluxes were -however- strongly altered. At a global scale, model projections suggest an increased productivity and hence an increased carbon sink in the next decades to come, when including trait variation. However, by the end of the century, a reduced carbon sink is projected. This effect is due to a downregulation of photosynthesis rates, particularly in the tropical regions, even when accounting for CO2-fertilization effects. Altogether, the various global model simulations suggest the critical importance of including vegetation functional responses to changing environmental conditions to grasp terrestrial feedback mechanisms at global scales in the light of climate change.

  7. Functional State Modelling of Saccharomyces cerevisiae Cultivations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iasen Hristozov

    2004-10-01

    Full Text Available The implementation of functional state approach for modelling of yeast cultivation is considered in this paper. This concept helps in monitoring and control of complex processes such as bioprocesses. Using of functional state modelling approach for fermentation processes aims to overcome the main disadvantage of using global process model, namely complex model structure and big number of model parameters. The main advantage of functional state modelling is that the parameters of each local model can be separately estimated from other local models parameters. The results achieved from batch, as well as from fed-batch, cultivations are presented.

  8. Global energy modeling - A biophysical approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dale, Michael

    2010-09-15

    This paper contrasts the standard economic approach to energy modelling with energy models using a biophysical approach. Neither of these approaches includes changing energy-returns-on-investment (EROI) due to declining resource quality or the capital intensive nature of renewable energy sources. Both of these factors will become increasingly important in the future. An extension to the biophysical approach is outlined which encompasses a dynamic EROI function that explicitly incorporates technological learning. The model is used to explore several scenarios of long-term future energy supply especially concerning the global transition to renewable energy sources in the quest for a sustainable energy system.

  9. BETR global - A geographically-explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacLeod, Matthew; Waldow, Harald von; Tay, Pascal; Armitage, James M.; Woehrnschimmel, Henry; Riley, William J.; McKone, Thomas E.; Hungerbuhler, Konrad

    2011-01-01

    We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15 o x 15 o grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5). - Two new software implementations of the Berkeley-Trent Global Contaminant Fate Model are available. The new model software is illustrated using a case study of the global fate of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

  10. Global adjoint tomography: first-generation model

    KAUST Repository

    Bozdağ, Ebru

    2016-09-23

    We present the first-generation global tomographic model constructed based on adjoint tomography, an iterative full-waveform inversion technique. Synthetic seismograms were calculated using GPU-accelerated spectral-element simulations of global seismic wave propagation, accommodating effects due to 3-D anelastic crust & mantle structure, topography & bathymetry, the ocean load, ellipticity, rotation, and self-gravitation. Fréchet derivatives were calculated in 3-D anelastic models based on an adjoint-state method. The simulations were performed on the Cray XK7 named \\'Titan\\', a computer with 18 688 GPU accelerators housed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The transversely isotropic global model is the result of 15 tomographic iterations, which systematically reduced differences between observed and simulated three-component seismograms. Our starting model combined 3-D mantle model S362ANI with 3-D crustal model Crust2.0. We simultaneously inverted for structure in the crust and mantle, thereby eliminating the need for widely used \\'crustal corrections\\'. We used data from 253 earthquakes in the magnitude range 5.8 ≤ M ≤ 7.0. We started inversions by combining ~30 s body-wave data with ~60 s surface-wave data. The shortest period of the surface waves was gradually decreased, and in the last three iterations we combined ~17 s body waves with ~45 s surface waves. We started using 180 min long seismograms after the 12th iteration and assimilated minor- and major-arc body and surface waves. The 15th iteration model features enhancements of well-known slabs, an enhanced image of the Samoa/Tahiti plume, as well as various other plumes and hotspots, such as Caroline, Galapagos, Yellowstone and Erebus. Furthermore, we see clear improvements in slab resolution along the Hellenic and Japan Arcs, as well as subduction along the East of Scotia Plate, which does not exist in the starting model. Point-spread function tests demonstrate that we are approaching the

  11. Homogenized global nonlinear constitutive model for RC panels under cyclic loadings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huguet, Miquel; Voldoire, Francois; Kotronis, Panagiotis; Erlicher, Silvano

    2014-01-01

    A new nonlinear stress resultant global constitutive model for RC panels is presented. Concrete damage, concrete stress transfer at cracks and bond-slip stress are the main nonlinear effects identified at the local scale that constitute the basis for the construction of the stress resultant global model through an analytical homogenization technique. The closed form solution is obtained using general functions for the previous phenomena. (authors)

  12. Global stability analysis of epidemiological models based on Volterra–Lyapunov stable matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao Shu; Wang Jin

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Global dynamics of high dimensional dynamical systems. ► A systematic approach for global stability analysis. ► Epidemiological models of environment-dependent diseases. - Abstract: In this paper, we study the global dynamics of a class of mathematical epidemiological models formulated by systems of differential equations. These models involve both human population and environmental component(s) and constitute high-dimensional nonlinear autonomous systems, for which the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibria has been a major challenge in analyzing the dynamics. By incorporating the theory of Volterra–Lyapunov stable matrices into the classical method of Lyapunov functions, we present an approach for global stability analysis and obtain new results on some three- and four-dimensional model systems. In addition, we conduct numerical simulation to verify the analytical results.

  13. A global genetic interaction network maps a wiring diagram of cellular function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costanzo, Michael; VanderSluis, Benjamin; Koch, Elizabeth N; Baryshnikova, Anastasia; Pons, Carles; Tan, Guihong; Wang, Wen; Usaj, Matej; Hanchard, Julia; Lee, Susan D; Pelechano, Vicent; Styles, Erin B; Billmann, Maximilian; van Leeuwen, Jolanda; van Dyk, Nydia; Lin, Zhen-Yuan; Kuzmin, Elena; Nelson, Justin; Piotrowski, Jeff S; Srikumar, Tharan; Bahr, Sondra; Chen, Yiqun; Deshpande, Raamesh; Kurat, Christoph F; Li, Sheena C; Li, Zhijian; Usaj, Mojca Mattiazzi; Okada, Hiroki; Pascoe, Natasha; San Luis, Bryan-Joseph; Sharifpoor, Sara; Shuteriqi, Emira; Simpkins, Scott W; Snider, Jamie; Suresh, Harsha Garadi; Tan, Yizhao; Zhu, Hongwei; Malod-Dognin, Noel; Janjic, Vuk; Przulj, Natasa; Troyanskaya, Olga G; Stagljar, Igor; Xia, Tian; Ohya, Yoshikazu; Gingras, Anne-Claude; Raught, Brian; Boutros, Michael; Steinmetz, Lars M; Moore, Claire L; Rosebrock, Adam P; Caudy, Amy A; Myers, Chad L; Andrews, Brenda; Boone, Charles

    2016-09-23

    We generated a global genetic interaction network for Saccharomyces cerevisiae, constructing more than 23 million double mutants, identifying about 550,000 negative and about 350,000 positive genetic interactions. This comprehensive network maps genetic interactions for essential gene pairs, highlighting essential genes as densely connected hubs. Genetic interaction profiles enabled assembly of a hierarchical model of cell function, including modules corresponding to protein complexes and pathways, biological processes, and cellular compartments. Negative interactions connected functionally related genes, mapped core bioprocesses, and identified pleiotropic genes, whereas positive interactions often mapped general regulatory connections among gene pairs, rather than shared functionality. The global network illustrates how coherent sets of genetic interactions connect protein complex and pathway modules to map a functional wiring diagram of the cell. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  14. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Larsen, Marcus M.; Bharati, Pratyush

    2013-01-01

    This article examines antecedents and performance implications of global delivery models (GDMs) in global business services. GDMs require geographically distributed operations to exploit both proximity to clients and time-zone spread for efficient service delivery. We propose and empirically show...

  15. Globally covering a-priori regional gravity covariance models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Arabelos

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Gravity anomaly data generated using Wenzel’s GPM98A model complete to degree 1800, from which OSU91A has been subtracted, have been used to estimate covariance functions for a set of globally covering equal-area blocks of size 22.5° × 22.5° at Equator, having a 2.5° overlap. For each block an analytic covariance function model was determined. The models are based on 4 parameters: the depth to the Bjerhammar sphere (determines correlation, the free-air gravity anomaly variance, a scale factor of the OSU91A error degree-variances and a maximal summation index, N, of the error degree-variances. The depth of Bjerhammar-sphere varies from -134km to nearly zero, N varies from 360 to 40, the scale factor from 0.03 to 38.0 and the gravity variance from 1081 to 24(10µms-22. The parameters are interpreted in terms of the quality of the data used to construct OSU91A and GPM98A and general conditions such as the occurrence of mountain chains. The variation of the parameters show that it is necessary to use regional covariance models in order to obtain a realistic signal to noise ratio in global applications.Key words. GOCE mission, Covariance function, Spacewise approach`

  16. Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models; Ratios de Aprendizaje Tecnologico en Modelos Energeticos Globales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varela, M.

    2001-07-01

    The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this tend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy systems including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs.

  17. Bayesian uncertainty analysis for complex systems biology models: emulation, global parameter searches and evaluation of gene functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vernon, Ian; Liu, Junli; Goldstein, Michael; Rowe, James; Topping, Jen; Lindsey, Keith

    2018-01-02

    Many mathematical models have now been employed across every area of systems biology. These models increasingly involve large numbers of unknown parameters, have complex structure which can result in substantial evaluation time relative to the needs of the analysis, and need to be compared to observed data of various forms. The correct analysis of such models usually requires a global parameter search, over a high dimensional parameter space, that incorporates and respects the most important sources of uncertainty. This can be an extremely difficult task, but it is essential for any meaningful inference or prediction to be made about any biological system. It hence represents a fundamental challenge for the whole of systems biology. Bayesian statistical methodology for the uncertainty analysis of complex models is introduced, which is designed to address the high dimensional global parameter search problem. Bayesian emulators that mimic the systems biology model but which are extremely fast to evaluate are embeded within an iterative history match: an efficient method to search high dimensional spaces within a more formal statistical setting, while incorporating major sources of uncertainty. The approach is demonstrated via application to a model of hormonal crosstalk in Arabidopsis root development, which has 32 rate parameters, for which we identify the sets of rate parameter values that lead to acceptable matches between model output and observed trend data. The multiple insights into the model's structure that this analysis provides are discussed. The methodology is applied to a second related model, and the biological consequences of the resulting comparison, including the evaluation of gene functions, are described. Bayesian uncertainty analysis for complex models using both emulators and history matching is shown to be a powerful technique that can greatly aid the study of a large class of systems biology models. It both provides insight into model behaviour

  18. Weber’s models of bureaucracy in the age of globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Stojanovski, Strasko; Denkova, Jadranka; Trajkov, Petar

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we make an effort to establish connection between Max Weber’s models of bureaucracy and to apply the same in the context of the globalization. The theoretical bases of modern rational model of bureaucracy can be seen as one of the characteristics of global societies. Furthermore we analyze the function of international organizations as UN, World Bank, IMF etc. The example of European Union and its administrative capacities and structure are showing practical utilization of the m...

  19. Global ice sheet modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, T.J.; Fastook, J.L.

    1994-05-01

    The University of Maine conducted this study for Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate modeling task for site characterization of the potential nuclear waste respository site at Yucca Mountain, NV. The purpose of the study was to develop a global ice sheet dynamics model that will forecast the three-dimensional configuration of global ice sheets for specific climate change scenarios. The objective of the third (final) year of the work was to produce ice sheet data for glaciation scenarios covering the next 100,000 years. This was accomplished using both the map-plane and flowband solutions of our time-dependent, finite-element gridpoint model. The theory and equations used to develop the ice sheet models are presented. Three future scenarios were simulated by the model and results are discussed

  20. Global study of nuclear modifications on parton distribution functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rong Wang

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available A global analysis of nuclear medium modifications of parton distributions is presented using deeply inelastic scattering data of various nuclear targets. Two obtained data sets are provided for quark and gluon nuclear modification factors, referred as nIMParton16. One is from the global fit only to the experimental data of isospin-scalar nuclei (Set A, and the other is from the fit to all the measured nuclear data (Set B. The scale-dependence is described by DGLAP equations with nonlinear corrections in this work. The Fermi motion and off-shell effect, nucleon swelling, and parton–parton recombination are taken into account together for modeling the complicated x-dependence of nuclear modification. The nuclear gluon shadowing in this paper is dynamically generated by the QCD evolution of parton splitting and recombination processes with zero gluon density at the input scale. Sophisticated nuclear dependence of nuclear medium effects is studied with only two free parameters. With the obtained free parameters from the global analysis, the nuclear modifications of parton distribution functions of unmeasured nuclei can be predicted in our model. Nuclear modification of deuteron is also predicted and shown with recent measurement at JLab.

  1. Fragmentation: Loss of global coherence or breakdown of modularity in functional brain architecture?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daan evan den Berg

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Psychiatric illnesses characterised by disorganized cognition, such as schizophrenia, have been described in terms of fragmentation and hence understood as reduction in functional brain connectivity, particularly in prefrontal and parietal areas. However, as graph-theory shows, relatively small numbers of nonlocal connections are sufficient to ensure global coherence in the modular small world network structure of the brain. We reconsider fragmentation in this perspective. Computational studies have shown that for a given level of connectivity in a model of coupled nonlinear oscillators, modular small-world networks evolve from an initially random organization. Here we demonstrate that with decreasing connectivity, the probability of evolving into a modular small-world network breaks down at a critical point, which scales to the percolation function of random networks with a universal exponent of α=1.17. Thus, according to the model, local modularity systematically breaks down before there is loss of global coherence in network connectivity. We therefore propose that fragmentation may involve, at least in its initial stages, the inability of a dynamically evolving network to sustain a modular small-world structure. The result is in a shift in the balance in schizophrenia from local to global functional connectivity.

  2. Analysis of a Heroin Epidemic Model with Saturated Treatment Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isaac Mwangi Wangari

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A mathematical model is developed that examines how heroin addiction spreads in society. The model is formulated to take into account the treatment of heroin users by incorporating a realistic functional form that “saturates” representing the limited availability of treatment. Bifurcation analysis reveals that the model has an intrinsic backward bifurcation whenever the saturation parameter is larger than a fixed threshold. We are particularly interested in studying the model’s global stability. In the absence of backward bifurcations, Lyapunov functions can often be found and used to prove global stability. However, in the presence of backward bifurcations, such Lyapunov functions may not exist or may be difficult to construct. We make use of the geometric approach to global stability to derive a condition that ensures that the system is globally asymptotically stable. Numerical simulations are also presented to give a more complete representation of the model dynamics. Sensitivity analysis performed by Latin hypercube sampling (LHS suggests that the effective contact rate in the population, the relapse rate of heroin users undergoing treatment, and the extent of saturation of heroin users are mechanisms fuelling heroin epidemic proliferation.

  3. Lyapunov functions for a dengue disease transmission model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tewa, Jean Jules; Dimi, Jean Luc; Bowong, Samuel

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we study a model for the dynamics of dengue fever when only one type of virus is present. For this model, Lyapunov functions are used to show that when the basic reproduction ratio is less than or equal to one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and when it is greater than one there is an endemic equilibrium which is also globally asymptotically stable.

  4. Lyapunov functions for a dengue disease transmission model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tewa, Jean Jules [Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University of Yaounde I, P.O. Box 812, Yaounde (Cameroon)], E-mail: tewa@univ-metz.fr; Dimi, Jean Luc [Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University Marien Ngouabi, P.O. Box 69, Brazzaville (Congo, The Democratic Republic of the)], E-mail: jldimi@yahoo.fr; Bowong, Samuel [Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Science, University of Douala, P.O. Box 24157, Douala (Cameroon)], E-mail: samuelbowong@yahoo.fr

    2009-01-30

    In this paper, we study a model for the dynamics of dengue fever when only one type of virus is present. For this model, Lyapunov functions are used to show that when the basic reproduction ratio is less than or equal to one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and when it is greater than one there is an endemic equilibrium which is also globally asymptotically stable.

  5. Determination of global heart function parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adam, W.E.; Hoffmann, H.; Sigel, H.; Bitter, F.; Nechwatal, W.; Stauch, M.; Ulm Univ.; Freiburg Univ.

    1980-01-01

    1. ECG-triggered scintigraphy of the interior of the heart (radioactive ventriculography) is a reliable non-invasive technique for the acquisition of the global and regional function of the left ventricle. 2. The most important global parameter is the output function (OF) of the left ventricle. It can be measured exactly. The decrease of the OF under load is typical for coronary insufficience under load, but is not specifically. 3. A movement disturbance on the ground of a KHK is recognized with highest sensitivity at the decrease of the maximum relaxation velocity of the global left-ventricular time-activity characteristic (fast phase of filling). 4. Regional wall movement disturbances can be measured quantitatively by means of viewing the radioactive nucleid ventriculogramm at the display. 5. The quantitative measurement of the regional function needs an extensive analysis of the local time-activity characteristics of a representative coronary cycle. For this the amplitude and phase and the contraction and relaxation velocity of all time-activity characteristics is determined by Fourier analysis and their spatial distribution is drawn (parametric scan). 6. The parametric scans (distribution of amplitude, phase, contraction and relaxation velocities) describe the regional wall movement in detail, the reliability of its quantitative acquisition has to be approved by further investigations. (orig.) [de

  6. Global Hail Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, A.; Sanderson, M.; Hand, W.; Blyth, A.; Groenemeijer, P.; Kunz, M.; Puskeiler, M.; Saville, G.; Michel, G.

    2012-04-01

    Hail risk models are rare for the insurance industry. This is opposed to the fact that average annual hail losses can be large and hail dominates losses for many motor portfolios worldwide. Insufficient observational data, high spatio-temporal variability and data inhomogenity have hindered creation of credible models so far. In January 2012, a selected group of hail experts met at Willis in London in order to discuss ways to model hail risk at various scales. Discussions aimed at improving our understanding of hail occurrence and severity, and covered recent progress in the understanding of microphysical processes and climatological behaviour and hail vulnerability. The final outcome of the meeting was the formation of a global hail risk model initiative and the launch of a realistic global hail model in order to assess hail loss occurrence and severities for the globe. The following projects will be tackled: Microphysics of Hail and hail severity measures: Understand the physical drivers of hail and hailstone size development in different regions on the globe. Proposed factors include updraft and supercooled liquid water content in the troposphere. What are the thresholds drivers of hail formation around the globe? Hail Climatology: Consider ways to build a realistic global climatological set of hail events based on physical parameters including spatial variations in total availability of moisture, aerosols, among others, and using neural networks. Vulnerability, Exposure, and financial model: Use historical losses and event footprints available in the insurance market to approximate fragility distributions and damage potential for various hail sizes for property, motor, and agricultural business. Propagate uncertainty distributions and consider effects of policy conditions along with aggregating and disaggregating exposure and losses. This presentation provides an overview of ideas and tasks that lead towards a comprehensive global understanding of hail risk for

  7. BETR Global - A geographically explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Macleod, M.; Waldow, H. von; Tay, P.; Armitage, J. M.; Wohrnschimmel, H.; Riley, W.; McKone, T. E.; Hungerbuhler, K.

    2011-04-01

    We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15{sup o} x 15{sup o} grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

  8. Multivariate sensitivity analysis to measure global contribution of input factors in dynamic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamboni, Matieyendou; Monod, Herve; Makowski, David

    2011-01-01

    Many dynamic models are used for risk assessment and decision support in ecology and crop science. Such models generate time-dependent model predictions, with time either discretised or continuous. Their global sensitivity analysis is usually applied separately on each time output, but Campbell et al. (2006 ) advocated global sensitivity analyses on the expansion of the dynamics in a well-chosen functional basis. This paper focuses on the particular case when principal components analysis is combined with analysis of variance. In addition to the indices associated with the principal components, generalised sensitivity indices are proposed to synthesize the influence of each parameter on the whole time series output. Index definitions are given when the uncertainty on the input factors is either discrete or continuous and when the dynamic model is either discrete or functional. A general estimation algorithm is proposed, based on classical methods of global sensitivity analysis. The method is applied to a dynamic wheat crop model with 13 uncertain parameters. Three methods of global sensitivity analysis are compared: the Sobol'-Saltelli method, the extended FAST method, and the fractional factorial design of resolution 6.

  9. Multivariate sensitivity analysis to measure global contribution of input factors in dynamic models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lamboni, Matieyendou [INRA, Unite MIA (UR341), F78352 Jouy en Josas Cedex (France); Monod, Herve, E-mail: herve.monod@jouy.inra.f [INRA, Unite MIA (UR341), F78352 Jouy en Josas Cedex (France); Makowski, David [INRA, UMR Agronomie INRA/AgroParisTech (UMR 211), BP 01, F78850 Thiverval-Grignon (France)

    2011-04-15

    Many dynamic models are used for risk assessment and decision support in ecology and crop science. Such models generate time-dependent model predictions, with time either discretised or continuous. Their global sensitivity analysis is usually applied separately on each time output, but Campbell et al. (2006) advocated global sensitivity analyses on the expansion of the dynamics in a well-chosen functional basis. This paper focuses on the particular case when principal components analysis is combined with analysis of variance. In addition to the indices associated with the principal components, generalised sensitivity indices are proposed to synthesize the influence of each parameter on the whole time series output. Index definitions are given when the uncertainty on the input factors is either discrete or continuous and when the dynamic model is either discrete or functional. A general estimation algorithm is proposed, based on classical methods of global sensitivity analysis. The method is applied to a dynamic wheat crop model with 13 uncertain parameters. Three methods of global sensitivity analysis are compared: the Sobol'-Saltelli method, the extended FAST method, and the fractional factorial design of resolution 6.

  10. Global Behavior for a Strongly Coupled Predator-Prey Model with One Resource and Two Consumers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yujuan Jiao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a strongly coupled predator-prey model with one resource and two consumers, in which the first consumer species feeds on the resource according to the Holling II functional response, while the second consumer species feeds on the resource following the Beddington-DeAngelis functional response, and they compete for the common resource. Using the energy estimates and Gagliardo-Nirenberg-type inequalities, the existence and uniform boundedness of global solutions for the model are proved. Meanwhile, the sufficient conditions for global asymptotic stability of the positive equilibrium for this model are given by constructing a Lyapunov function.

  11. Amelioration of cognitive, motor and endogenous defense functions with silymarin, piracetam and protocatechuic acid in the cerebral global ischemic rat model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muley, Milind M; Thakare, Vishnu N; Patil, Rajesh R; Bafna, Pallavi A; Naik, Suresh R

    2013-07-19

    The neuroprotective activities of silymarin, piracetam and protocatechuic acid ethyl ester (PCA) on cerebral global ischemic/reperfusion were evaluated in a rat model. A midline ventral incision was made in the throat region. The right and left common carotid arteries were located and a bilateral common carotid artery occlusion (BCCAO) was performed for 30min using atraumatic clamps followed by a 24h period of reperfusion. Neurological/behavioral functions (cognitive and motor), endogenous defense systems (lipid peroxidation, glutathione, catalase, and superoxide dismutase), reduced water content and infarct size and histopathological alterations were then studied. Silymarin and PCA treatments significantly improved cognitive, motor and endogenous defense functions, histopathological alterations, and, reduced both water content and infarct size compared to the vehicle-treated ischemic control group. Piracetam treatment improved neurological and histopathological alterations, reduced water content and infarct size, but failed to restore/prevent the impaired endogenous defense functions significantly. Silymarin showed better neuroprotection than piracetam and PCA in experimentally induced global ischemic/reperfusion and was able to facilitate mnemonic performance. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, Matthias

    2015-04-01

    Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F

  13. Global spacetime symmetries in the functional Schroedinger picture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halliwell, J.J.

    1991-01-01

    In the conventional functional Schroedinger quantization of field theory, the background spacetime manifold is foliated into a set of three-surfaces and the quantum state of the field is represented by a wave functional of the field configurations on each three-surface. Although this procedure may be covariantly described, the wave functionals generally fail to carry a representation of the complete spacetime symmetry group of the background, such as the Poincare group in Minkowski spacetime, because spacetime symmetries generally involve distortions or motions of the three-surfaces themselves within that spacetime. In this paper, we show that global spacetime symmetries in the functional Schroedinger picture may be represented by parametrizing the field theory---raising to the status of dynamical variables the embedding variables describing the spacetime location of each three-surface. In particular, we show that the embedding variables provide a connection between the purely geometrical operation of an isometry group on the spacetime and the operation of the usual global symmetry generators (constructed from the energy-momentum tensor) on the wave functionals of the theory. We study the path-integral representation of the wave functionals of the parametrized field theory. We show how to construct, from the path integral, wave functionals that are annihilated by the global symmetry generators, i.e., that are invariant under global spacetime symmetry groups. The invariance of the class of histories summed over in the path integral is identified as the source of the invariance of the wave functionals. We apply this understanding to a study of vacuum states in the de Sitter spacetime. We make mathematically precise a previously given heuristic argument for the de Sitter invariance of the matter wave functionals defined by the no-boundary proposal of Hartle and Hawking

  14. Global nuclear material control model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dreicer, J.S.; Rutherford, D.A.

    1996-01-01

    The nuclear danger can be reduced by a system for global management, protection, control, and accounting as part of a disposition program for special nuclear materials. The development of an international fissile material management and control regime requires conceptual research supported by an analytical and modeling tool that treats the nuclear fuel cycle as a complete system. Such a tool must represent the fundamental data, information, and capabilities of the fuel cycle including an assessment of the global distribution of military and civilian fissile material inventories, a representation of the proliferation pertinent physical processes, and a framework supportive of national or international perspective. They have developed a prototype global nuclear material management and control systems analysis capability, the Global Nuclear Material Control (GNMC) model. The GNMC model establishes the framework for evaluating the global production, disposition, and safeguards and security requirements for fissile nuclear material

  15. Using the CARDAMOM framework to retrieve global terrestrial ecosystem functioning properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exbrayat, Jean-François; Bloom, A. Anthony; Smallman, T. Luke; van der Velde, Ivar R.; Feng, Liang; Williams, Mathew

    2016-04-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems act as a sink for anthropogenic emissions of fossil-fuel and thereby partially offset the ongoing global warming. However, recent model benchmarking and intercomparison studies have highlighted the non-trivial uncertainties that exist in our understanding of key ecosystem properties like plant carbon allocation and residence times. It leads to worrisome differences in terrestrial carbon stocks simulated by Earth system models, and their evolution in a warming future. In this presentation we attempt to provide global insights on these properties by merging an ecosystem model with remotely-sensed global observations of leaf area and biomass through a data-assimilation system: the CARbon Data MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM). CARDAMOM relies on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to retrieve confidence intervals of model parameters that regulate ecosystem properties independently of any prior land-cover information. The MCMC method thereby enables an explicit representation of the uncertainty in land-atmosphere fluxes and the evolution of terrestrial carbon stocks through time. Global experiments are performed for the first decade of the 21st century using a 1°×1° spatial resolution. Relationships emerge globally between key ecosystem properties. For example, our analyses indicate that leaf lifespan and leaf mass per area are highly correlated. Furthermore, there exists a latitudinal gradient in allocation patterns: high latitude ecosystems allocate more carbon to photosynthetic carbon (leaves) while plants invest more carbon in their structural parts (wood and root) in the wet tropics. Overall, the spatial distribution of these ecosystem properties does not correspond to usual land-cover maps and are also partially correlated with disturbance regimes. For example, fire-prone ecosystems present statistically significant higher values of carbon use efficiency than less disturbed ecosystems experiencing similar climatic conditions. These results

  16. An Evaluation of the Sniffer Global Optimization Algorithm Using Standard Test Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Roger A. R.; Slaminka, Edward E.

    1992-03-01

    The performance of Sniffer—a new global optimization algorithm—is compared with that of Simulated Annealing. Using the number of function evaluations as a measure of efficiency, the new algorithm is shown to be significantly better at finding the global minimum of seven standard test functions. Several of the test functions used have many local minima and very steep walls surrounding the global minimum. Such functions are intended to thwart global minimization algorithms.

  17. A kind of balance between exploitation and exploration on kriging for global optimization of expensive functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong, Huachao; Song, Baowei; Wang, Peng; Huang, Shuai

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a novel kriging-based algorithm for global optimization of computationally expensive black-box functions is presented. This algorithm utilizes a multi-start approach to find all of the local optimal values of the surrogate model and performs searches within the neighboring area around these local optimal positions. Compared with traditional surrogate-based global optimization method, this algorithm provides another kind of balance between exploitation and exploration on kriging-based model. In addition, a new search strategy is proposed and coupled into this optimization process. The local search strategy employs a kind of improved 'Minimizing the predictor' method, which dynamically adjusts search direction and radius until finds the optimal value. Furthermore, the global search strategy utilizes the advantage of kriging-based model in predicting unexplored regions to guarantee the reliability of the algorithm. Finally, experiments on 13 test functions with six algorithms are set up and the results show that the proposed algorithm is very promising.

  18. Global spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration modeled using a global database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashimoto, S.; Carvalhais, N.; Ito, A.; Migliavacca, M.; Nishina, K.; Reichstein, M.

    2015-07-01

    The flux of carbon dioxide from the soil to the atmosphere (soil respiration) is one of the major fluxes in the global carbon cycle. At present, the accumulated field observation data cover a wide range of geographical locations and climate conditions. However, there are still large uncertainties in the magnitude and spatiotemporal variation of global soil respiration. Using a global soil respiration data set, we developed a climate-driven model of soil respiration by modifying and updating Raich's model, and the global spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration was examined using this model. The model was applied at a spatial resolution of 0.5°and a monthly time step. Soil respiration was divided into the heterotrophic and autotrophic components of respiration using an empirical model. The estimated mean annual global soil respiration was 91 Pg C yr-1 (between 1965 and 2012; Monte Carlo 95 % confidence interval: 87-95 Pg C yr-1) and increased at the rate of 0.09 Pg C yr-2. The contribution of soil respiration from boreal regions to the total increase in global soil respiration was on the same order of magnitude as that of tropical and temperate regions, despite a lower absolute magnitude of soil respiration in boreal regions. The estimated annual global heterotrophic respiration and global autotrophic respiration were 51 and 40 Pg C yr-1, respectively. The global soil respiration responded to the increase in air temperature at the rate of 3.3 Pg C yr-1 °C-1, and Q10 = 1.4. Our study scaled up observed soil respiration values from field measurements to estimate global soil respiration and provide a data-oriented estimate of global soil respiration. The estimates are based on a semi-empirical model parameterized with over one thousand data points. Our analysis indicates that the climate controls on soil respiration may translate into an increasing trend in global soil respiration and our analysis emphasizes the relevance of the soil carbon flux from soil to

  19. Functional diversity of fish in estuaries at a global extent

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita P Vasconcelos

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Biodiversity is currently viewed as a framework encompassing multiple facets of the variety of life, including taxonomic and functional aspects. Species richness and composition of fish assemblages in estuaries is defined by global to local processes acting on community colonization. The present study further investigates how biodiversity of fish assemblages varies among estuaries globally, by simultaneously analysing taxonomic and functional richness and diversity of assemblages. A comprehensive worldwide database was compiled on the fish assemblage composition and environmental characteristics of estuaries. In addition, functional attributes of the fish species were characterized such as body size, habitat use and trophic ecology. We investigated the relationship between taxonomic and functional aspects of biodiversity, i.e. the match or mismatch between the two. We also explored how functional diversity of fish assemblages varied among estuaries globally and related to environmental features of estuaries, i.e. historic and contemporary, global and local constraints. The results are explored in the context of ecosystem functioning and resilience, and outcomes relevant to assist in prioritizing conservation efforts are highlighted.

  20. Default Mode Dynamics for Global Functional Integration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vatansever, Deniz; Menon, David K; Manktelow, Anne E; Sahakian, Barbara J; Stamatakis, Emmanuel A

    2015-11-18

    The default mode network (DMN) has been traditionally assumed to hinder behavioral performance in externally focused, goal-directed paradigms and to provide no active contribution to human cognition. However, recent evidence suggests greater DMN activity in an array of tasks, especially those that involve self-referential and memory-based processing. Although data that robustly demonstrate a comprehensive functional role for DMN remains relatively scarce, the global workspace framework, which implicates the DMN in global information integration for conscious processing, can potentially provide an explanation for the broad range of higher-order paradigms that report DMN involvement. We used graph theoretical measures to assess the contribution of the DMN to global functional connectivity dynamics in 22 healthy volunteers during an fMRI-based n-back working-memory paradigm with parametric increases in difficulty. Our predominant finding is that brain modularity decreases with greater task demands, thus adapting a more global workspace configuration, in direct relation to increases in reaction times to correct responses. Flexible default mode regions dynamically switch community memberships and display significant changes in their nodal participation coefficient and strength, which may reflect the observed whole-brain changes in functional connectivity architecture. These findings have important implications for our understanding of healthy brain function, as they suggest a central role for the DMN in higher cognitive processing. The default mode network (DMN) has been shown to increase its activity during the absence of external stimulation, and hence was historically assumed to disengage during goal-directed tasks. Recent evidence, however, implicates the DMN in self-referential and memory-based processing. We provide robust evidence for this network's active contribution to working memory by revealing dynamic reconfiguration in its interactions with other networks

  1. Increased Global Interaction Across Functional Brain Modules During Cognitive Emotion Regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandl, Felix; Mulej Bratec, Satja; Xie, Xiyao; Wohlschläger, Afra M; Riedl, Valentin; Meng, Chun; Sorg, Christian

    2017-07-13

    Cognitive emotion regulation (CER) enables humans to flexibly modulate their emotions. While local theories of CER neurobiology suggest interactions between specialized local brain circuits underlying CER, e.g., in subparts of amygdala and medial prefrontal cortices (mPFC), global theories hypothesize global interaction increases among larger functional brain modules comprising local circuits. We tested the global CER hypothesis using graph-based whole-brain network analysis of functional MRI data during aversive emotional processing with and without CER. During CER, global between-module interaction across stable functional network modules increased. Global interaction increase was particularly driven by subregions of amygdala and cuneus-nodes of highest nodal participation-that overlapped with CER-specific local activations, and by mPFC and posterior cingulate as relevant connector hubs. Results provide evidence for the global nature of human CER, complementing functional specialization of embedded local brain circuits during successful CER. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. Developing empirical collapse fragility functions for global building types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; D'Ayala, D.

    2011-01-01

    Building collapse is the dominant cause of casualties during earthquakes. In order to better predict human fatalities, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program requires collapse fragility functions for global building types. The collapse fragility is expressed as the probability of collapse at discrete levels of the input hazard defined in terms of macroseismic intensity. This article provides a simple procedure for quantifying collapse fragility using vulnerability criteria based on the European Macroseismic Scale (1998) for selected European building types. In addition, the collapse fragility functions are developed for global building types by fitting the beta distribution to the multiple experts’ estimates for the same building type (obtained from EERI’s World Housing Encyclopedia (WHE)-PAGER survey). Finally, using the collapse probability distributions at each shaking intensity level as a prior and field-based collapse-rate observations as likelihood, it is possible to update the collapse fragility functions for global building types using the Bayesian procedure.

  3. Comparison of global optimization approaches for robust calibration of hydrologic model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, I. W.

    2015-12-01

    Robustness of the calibrated parameters of hydrologic models is necessary to provide a reliable prediction of future performance of watershed behavior under varying climate conditions. This study investigated calibration performances according to the length of calibration period, objective functions, hydrologic model structures and optimization methods. To do this, the combination of three global optimization methods (i.e. SCE-UA, Micro-GA, and DREAM) and four hydrologic models (i.e. SAC-SMA, GR4J, HBV, and PRMS) was tested with different calibration periods and objective functions. Our results showed that three global optimization methods provided close calibration performances under different calibration periods, objective functions, and hydrologic models. However, using the agreement of index, normalized root mean square error, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency as the objective function showed better performance than using correlation coefficient and percent bias. Calibration performances according to different calibration periods from one year to seven years were hard to generalize because four hydrologic models have different levels of complexity and different years have different information content of hydrological observation. Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant (14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  4. The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Polet, J.; Thio, H. K.

    2017-12-01

    The tsunamis occurred worldwide in the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but often disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

  5. Global model structures for ∗-modules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Böhme, Benjamin

    2018-01-01

    We extend Schwede's work on the unstable global homotopy theory of orthogonal spaces and L-spaces to the category of ∗-modules (i.e., unstable S-modules). We prove a theorem which transports model structures and their properties from L-spaces to ∗-modules and show that the resulting global model...... structure for ∗-modules is monoidally Quillen equivalent to that of orthogonal spaces. As a consequence, there are induced Quillen equivalences between the associated model categories of monoids, which identify equivalent models for the global homotopy theory of A∞-spaces....

  6. Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robinson, S.; Meijl, van J.C.M.; Willenbockel, D.; Valin, H.; Fujimori, S.; Masui, T.; Sands, R.; Wise, M.; Calvin, K.V.; Mason d'Croz, D.; Tabeau, A.A.; Kavallari, A.; Schmitz, C.; Dietrich, J.P.; Lampe, von M.

    2014-01-01

    This article compares the theoretical and functional specification of production in partial equilibrium (PE) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of the global agricultural and food system included in the AgMIP model comparison study. The two model families differ in their scope—partial

  7. Assessment of Global Functioning in Adolescents with Autism Spectrum Disorders: Utility of the Developmental Disability-Child Global Assessment Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Susan W.; Smith, Laura A.; Schry, Amie R.

    2014-01-01

    Assessment of global functioning is an important consideration in treatment outcome research; yet, there is little guidance on its evidence-based assessment for children with autism spectrum disorders. This study investigated the utility and validity of clinician-rated global functioning using the Developmental Disability-Child Global Assessment…

  8. On coupling global biome models with climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Claussen, M.

    1994-01-01

    The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, is coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg. It is found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only between the initial biome distribution and the biome distribution computed after the first simulation period, provided that the climate-biome model is started from a biome distribution that resembles the present-day distribution. After the first simulation period, there is no significant shrinking, expanding, or shifting of biomes. Likewise, no trend is seen in global averages of land-surface parameters and climate variables. (orig.)

  9. Global plastic models for computerized structural analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roche, R.L.; Hoffmann, A.

    1977-01-01

    In many types of structures, it is possible to use generalized stresses (like membrane forces, bending moment, torsion moment...) to define a yield surface for a part of the structure. Analysis can be achieved by using the HILL's principle and a hardening rule. The whole formulation is said 'Global Plastic Model'. Two different global models are used in the CEASEMT system for structural analysis, one for shell analysis and the other for piping analysis (in plastic or creep field). In shell analysis the generalized stresses chosen are the membrane forces and bending (including torsion) moments. There is only one yield condition for a normal to the middle surface and no integration along the thickness is required. In piping analysis, the choice of generalized stresses is bending moments, torsional moment, hoop stress and tension stress. There is only a set of stresses for a cross section and no integration over the cross section area is needed. Connected strains are axis curvature, torsion, uniform strains. The definition of the yield surface is the most important item. A practical way is to use a diagonal quadratic function of the stress components. But the coefficients are depending of the shape of the pipe element, especially for curved segments. Indications will be given on the yield functions used. Some examples of applications in structural analysis are added to the text

  10. Online Adaptive Local-Global Model Reduction for Flows in Heterogeneous Porous Media

    KAUST Repository

    Efendiev, Yalchin R.; Gildin, Eduardo; Yang, Yanfang

    2016-01-01

    We propose an online adaptive local-global POD-DEIM model reduction method for flows in heterogeneous porous media. The main idea of the proposed method is to use local online indicators to decide on the global update, which is performed via reduced cost local multiscale basis functions. This unique local-global online combination allows (1) developing local indicators that are used for both local and global updates (2) computing global online modes via local multiscale basis functions. The multiscale basis functions consist of offline and some online local basis functions. The approach used for constructing a global reduced system is based on Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) Galerkin projection. The nonlinearities are approximated by the Discrete Empirical Interpolation Method (DEIM). The online adaption is performed by incorporating new data, which become available at the online stage. Once the criterion for updates is satisfied, we adapt the reduced system online by changing the POD subspace and the DEIM approximation of the nonlinear functions. The main contribution of the paper is that the criterion for adaption and the construction of the global online modes are based on local error indicators and local multiscale basis function which can be cheaply computed. Since the adaption is performed infrequently, the new methodology does not add significant computational overhead associated with when and how to adapt the reduced basis. Our approach is particularly useful for situations where it is desired to solve the reduced system for inputs or controls that result in a solution outside the span of the snapshots generated in the offline stage. Our method also offers an alternative of constructing a robust reduced system even if a potential initial poor choice of snapshots is used. Applications to single-phase and two-phase flow problems demonstrate the efficiency of our method.

  11. Online Adaptive Local-Global Model Reduction for Flows in Heterogeneous Porous Media

    KAUST Repository

    Efendiev, Yalchin R.

    2016-06-07

    We propose an online adaptive local-global POD-DEIM model reduction method for flows in heterogeneous porous media. The main idea of the proposed method is to use local online indicators to decide on the global update, which is performed via reduced cost local multiscale basis functions. This unique local-global online combination allows (1) developing local indicators that are used for both local and global updates (2) computing global online modes via local multiscale basis functions. The multiscale basis functions consist of offline and some online local basis functions. The approach used for constructing a global reduced system is based on Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) Galerkin projection. The nonlinearities are approximated by the Discrete Empirical Interpolation Method (DEIM). The online adaption is performed by incorporating new data, which become available at the online stage. Once the criterion for updates is satisfied, we adapt the reduced system online by changing the POD subspace and the DEIM approximation of the nonlinear functions. The main contribution of the paper is that the criterion for adaption and the construction of the global online modes are based on local error indicators and local multiscale basis function which can be cheaply computed. Since the adaption is performed infrequently, the new methodology does not add significant computational overhead associated with when and how to adapt the reduced basis. Our approach is particularly useful for situations where it is desired to solve the reduced system for inputs or controls that result in a solution outside the span of the snapshots generated in the offline stage. Our method also offers an alternative of constructing a robust reduced system even if a potential initial poor choice of snapshots is used. Applications to single-phase and two-phase flow problems demonstrate the efficiency of our method.

  12. On coupling global biome models with climate models

    OpenAIRE

    Claussen, M.

    1994-01-01

    The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992; J. Biogeogr. 19: 117-134), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, was coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fiir Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany. It was found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only betw...

  13. Longstanding Hyperthyroidism Is Associated with Normal or Enhanced Intrinsic Cardiomyocyte Function despite Decline in Global Cardiac Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redetzke, Rebecca A.; Gerdes, A. Martin

    2012-01-01

    Thyroid hormones (THs) play a pivotal role in cardiac homeostasis. TH imbalances alter cardiac performance and ultimately cause cardiac dysfunction. Although short-term hyperthyroidism typically leads to heightened left ventricular (LV) contractility and improved hemodynamic parameters, chronic hyperthyroidism is associated with deleterious cardiac consequences including increased risk of arrhythmia, impaired cardiac reserve and exercise capacity, myocardial remodeling, and occasionally heart failure. To evaluate the long-term consequences of chronic hyperthyroidism on LV remodeling and function, we examined LV isolated myocyte function, chamber function, and whole tissue remodeling in a hamster model. Three-month-old F1b hamsters were randomized to control or 10 months TH treatment (0.1% grade I desiccated TH). LV chamber remodeling and function was assessed by echocardiography at 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 months of treatment. After 10 months, terminal cardiac function was assessed by echocardiography and LV hemodynamics. Hyperthyroid hamsters exhibited significant cardiac hypertrophy and deleterious cardiac remodeling characterized by myocyte lengthening, chamber dilatation, decreased relative wall thickness, increased wall stress, and increased LV interstitial fibrotic deposition. Importantly, hyperthyroid hamsters demonstrated significant LV systolic and diastolic dysfunction. Despite the aforementioned remodeling and global cardiac decline, individual isolated cardiac myocytes from chronically hyperthyroid hamsters had enhanced function when compared with myocytes from untreated age-matched controls. Thus, it appears that long-term hyperthyroidism may impair global LV function, at least in part by increasing interstitial ventricular fibrosis, in spite of normal or enhanced intrinsic cardiomyocyte function. PMID:23056390

  14. Longstanding hyperthyroidism is associated with normal or enhanced intrinsic cardiomyocyte function despite decline in global cardiac function.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan Y Weltman

    Full Text Available Thyroid hormones (THs play a pivotal role in cardiac homeostasis. TH imbalances alter cardiac performance and ultimately cause cardiac dysfunction. Although short-term hyperthyroidism typically leads to heightened left ventricular (LV contractility and improved hemodynamic parameters, chronic hyperthyroidism is associated with deleterious cardiac consequences including increased risk of arrhythmia, impaired cardiac reserve and exercise capacity, myocardial remodeling, and occasionally heart failure. To evaluate the long-term consequences of chronic hyperthyroidism on LV remodeling and function, we examined LV isolated myocyte function, chamber function, and whole tissue remodeling in a hamster model. Three-month-old F1b hamsters were randomized to control or 10 months TH treatment (0.1% grade I desiccated TH. LV chamber remodeling and function was assessed by echocardiography at 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 months of treatment. After 10 months, terminal cardiac function was assessed by echocardiography and LV hemodynamics. Hyperthyroid hamsters exhibited significant cardiac hypertrophy and deleterious cardiac remodeling characterized by myocyte lengthening, chamber dilatation, decreased relative wall thickness, increased wall stress, and increased LV interstitial fibrotic deposition. Importantly, hyperthyroid hamsters demonstrated significant LV systolic and diastolic dysfunction. Despite the aforementioned remodeling and global cardiac decline, individual isolated cardiac myocytes from chronically hyperthyroid hamsters had enhanced function when compared with myocytes from untreated age-matched controls. Thus, it appears that long-term hyperthyroidism may impair global LV function, at least in part by increasing interstitial ventricular fibrosis, in spite of normal or enhanced intrinsic cardiomyocyte function.

  15. Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling: An Earth Systems Modelling Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Berrien, III; Sahagian, Dork

    1997-01-01

    The Goal of the GAIM is: To advance the study of the coupled dynamics of the Earth system using as tools both data and models; to develop a strategy for the rapid development, evaluation, and application of comprehensive prognostic models of the Global Biogeochemical Subsystem which could eventually be linked with models of the Physical-Climate Subsystem; to propose, promote, and facilitate experiments with existing models or by linking subcomponent models, especially those associated with IGBP Core Projects and with WCRP efforts. Such experiments would be focused upon resolving interface issues and questions associated with developing an understanding of the prognostic behavior of key processes; to clarify key scientific issues facing the development of Global Biogeochemical Models and the coupling of these models to General Circulation Models; to assist the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process by conducting timely studies that focus upon elucidating important unresolved scientific issues associated with the changing biogeochemical cycles of the planet and upon the role of the biosphere in the physical-climate subsystem, particularly its role in the global hydrological cycle; and to advise the SC-IGBP on progress in developing comprehensive Global Biogeochemical Models and to maintain scientific liaison with the WCRP Steering Group on Global Climate Modelling.

  16. Modelling of Functional States during Saccharomyces cerevisiae Fed-batch Cultivation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stoyan Tzonkov

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available An implementation of functional state approach for modelling of yeast fed-batch cultivation is presented in this paper. Using of functional state modelling approach aims to overcome the main disadvantage of using global process model, namely complex model structure and big number of model parameters, which complicate the model simulation and parameter estimation. This approach has computational advantages, such as the possibility to use the estimated values from the previous state as starting values for estimation of parameters of a new state. The functional state modelling approach is applied here for fedbatch cultivation of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Four functional states are recognised and parameter estimation of local models is presented as well.

  17. New global ICT-based business models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    The New Global Business model (NEWGIBM) book describes the background, theory references, case studies, results and learning imparted by the NEWGIBM project, which is supported by ICT, to a research group during the period from 2005-2011. The book is a result of the efforts and the collaborative ...... The NEWGIBM Cases Show? The Strategy Concept in Light of the Increased Importance of Innovative Business Models Successful Implementation of Global BM Innovation Globalisation Of ICT Based Business Models: Today And In 2020......The New Global Business model (NEWGIBM) book describes the background, theory references, case studies, results and learning imparted by the NEWGIBM project, which is supported by ICT, to a research group during the period from 2005-2011. The book is a result of the efforts and the collaborative....... The NEWGIBM book serves as a part of the final evaluation and documentation of the NEWGIBM project and is supported by results from the following projects: M-commerce, Global Innovation, Global Ebusiness & M-commerce, The Blue Ocean project, International Center for Innovation and Women in Business, NEFFICS...

  18. Modeling Global Biogenic Emission of Isoprene: Exploration of Model Drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Susan E.; Potter, Christopher S.; Coughlan, Joseph C.; Klooster, Steven A.; Lerdau, Manuel T.; Chatfield, Robert B.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    Vegetation provides the major source of isoprene emission to the atmosphere. We present a modeling approach to estimate global biogenic isoprene emission. The isoprene flux model is linked to a process-based computer simulation model of biogenic trace-gas fluxes that operates on scales that link regional and global data sets and ecosystem nutrient transformations Isoprene emission estimates are determined from estimates of ecosystem specific biomass, emission factors, and algorithms based on light and temperature. Our approach differs from an existing modeling framework by including the process-based global model for terrestrial ecosystem production, satellite derived ecosystem classification, and isoprene emission measurements from a tropical deciduous forest. We explore the sensitivity of model estimates to input parameters. The resulting emission products from the global 1 degree x 1 degree coverage provided by the satellite datasets and the process model allow flux estimations across large spatial scales and enable direct linkage to atmospheric models of trace-gas transport and transformation.

  19. A Process-based Model of Global Lichen Productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porada, P.; Kleidon, A.

    2012-04-01

    Lichens and biotic crusts are abundant in most ecosystems of the world. They are the main autotrophic organisms in many deserts and at high altitudes and they can also be found in large amounts as epiphytes in some forests, especially in the boreal zone. They are characterised by a great variety of physiological properties, such as growth form, productivity or color. Due to the vast land surface areas covered by lichens, they may contribute significantly to the global terrestrial net carbon uptake. Furthermore, they potentially play an important role with respect to nutrient cycles in some ecosystems and they have the ability to enhance weathering at the surface on which they grow. A possible way to quantify these processes at the global scale is presented here in form of a process-based lichen model. This approach is based on the concepts used in many dynamical vegetation models and extends these methods to account for the specific properties of lichens. Hence, processes such as photosynthesis, respiration and water exchange are implemented as well as important trade-offs like photosynthetic capacity versus respiratory load and water content versus CO2 conductivity. The great physiological variability of lichens is incorporated directly into the model through ranges of possible parameter values, which are randomly sampled. In this way, many artificial lichen "species" are created and climate then acts as a filter to determine the species which are able to survive permanently. By averaging over the surviving "species", the model predicts lichen productivity as a function of climate input data such as temperature, radiation and precipitation at the global scale. Consequently, the contribution of lichens to the global carbon balance can be quantified. Moreover, global patterns of lichen biodiversity and other properties can be illustrated. The model can be extended to account for the nutrient dynamics of lichens, such as nitrogen fixation and the acquisition and

  20. Global Convergence of the EM Algorithm for Unconstrained Latent Variable Models with Categorical Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weissman, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Convergence of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to a global optimum of the marginal log likelihood function for unconstrained latent variable models with categorical indicators is presented. The sufficient conditions under which global convergence of the EM algorithm is attainable are provided in an information-theoretic context by…

  1. Autistic and schizotypal traits and global functioning in bipolar I disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abu-Akel, Ahmad; Clark, Jennifer; Perry, Amy; Wood, Stephen J; Forty, Liz; Craddock, Nick; Jones, Ian; Gordon-Smith, Katherine; Jones, Lisa

    2017-01-01

    To determine the expression of autistic and positive schizotypal traits in a large sample of adults with bipolar I disorder (BD I), and the effect of co-occurring autistic and positive schizotypal traits on global functioning in BD I. Autistic and positive schizotypal traits were self-assessed in 797 individuals with BD-I recruited by the Bipolar Disorder Research Network. Differences in global functioning (rated using the Global Assessment Scale) during lifetime worst depressive and manic episodes (GASD and GASM respectively) were calculated in groups with high/low autistic and positive schizotypal traits. Regression analyses assessed the interactive effect of autistic and positive schizotypal traits on global functioning. 47.2% (CI=43.7-50.7%) showed clinically significant levels of autistic traits, and 23.22% (95% CI=20.29-26.14) showed clinically significant levels of positive schizotypal traits. In the worst episode of mania, the high autistic, high positive schizotypal group had better global functioning compared to the other groups. Individual differences analyses showed that high levels of both traits were associated with better global functioning in both mood states. Autistic and schizotypal traits were assessed using self-rated questionnaires. Expression of autistic and schizotypal traits in adults with BD I is prevalent, and may be important to predict illness aetiology, prognosis, and diagnostic practices in this population. Future work should focus on replicating these findings in independent samples, and on the biological and/or psychosocial mechanisms underlying better global functioning in those who have high levels of both autistic and positive schizotypal traits. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Anti-correlated networks, global signal regression, and the effects of caffeine in resting-state functional MRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Chi Wah; Olafsson, Valur; Tal, Omer; Liu, Thomas T

    2012-10-15

    Resting-state functional connectivity magnetic resonance imaging is proving to be an essential tool for the characterization of functional networks in the brain. Two of the major networks that have been identified are the default mode network (DMN) and the task positive network (TPN). Although prior work indicates that these two networks are anti-correlated, the findings are controversial because the anti-correlations are often found only after the application of a pre-processing step, known as global signal regression, that can produce artifactual anti-correlations. In this paper, we show that, for subjects studied in an eyes-closed rest state, caffeine can significantly enhance the detection of anti-correlations between the DMN and TPN without the need for global signal regression. In line with these findings, we find that caffeine also leads to widespread decreases in connectivity and global signal amplitude. Using a recently introduced geometric model of global signal effects, we demonstrate that these decreases are consistent with the removal of an additive global signal confound. In contrast to the effects observed in the eyes-closed rest state, caffeine did not lead to significant changes in global functional connectivity in the eyes-open rest state. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Clinical symptoms predict concurrent social and global functioning in an early psychosis sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cacciotti-Saija, Cristina; Langdon, Robyn; Ward, Philip B; Hickie, Ian B; Guastella, Adam J

    2018-04-01

    Although well established in chronic schizophrenia, the key determinants of functioning remain unknown during the early phase of a psychotic disorder. The aim of this study was to comprehensively examine the social cognitive, basic neurocognitive and clinical predictors of concurrent social functioning and global functioning in an early psychosis sample. This study examined the relationship between social cognition, basic neurocognition and clinical symptoms with concurrent functioning in 51 early psychosis individuals. Assessments included a range of self-report, observational and clinician-rated measures of cognitive, symptom severity and functioning domains. Results revealed a significant association between self-reported social function and lower levels of both social interaction anxiety and negative psychotic symptoms. A significant association was also observed between lower levels of negative psychotic symptoms and observed social functioning. Lastly, results demonstrated a significant association between reduced negative psychotic symptoms and clinician-rated global functioning. Clinical domains such as negative symptoms and social interaction anxiety significantly contribute to an optimal model predicting outcome during the early phase of a psychotic disorder. These clinical features may also provide useful markers of an individual's capacity for social participation. Clinical implications include the need for early targeted intervention to address social anxiety and negative psychotic symptoms to facilitate optimum patient outcome. © 2015 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  4. Global meta-analysis of leaf area index in wetlands indicates uncertainties in understanding of their ecosystem function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dronova, I.; Taddeo, S.; Foster, K.

    2017-12-01

    Projecting ecosystem responses to global change relies on the accurate understanding of properties governing their functions in different environments. An important variable in models of ecosystem function is canopy leaf area index (LAI; leaf area per unit ground area) declared as one of the Essential Climate Variables in the Global Climate Observing System and extensively measured in terrestrial landscapes. However, wetlands have been largely under-represented in these efforts, which globally limits understanding of their contribution to carbon sequestration, climate regulation and resilience to natural and anthropogenic disturbances. This study provides a global synthesis of >350 wetland-specific LAI observations from 182 studies and compares LAI among wetland ecosystem and vegetation types, biomes and measurement approaches. Results indicate that most wetland types and even individual locations show a substantial local dispersion of LAI values (average coefficient of variation 65%) due to heterogeneity of environmental properties and vegetation composition. Such variation indicates that mean LAI values may not sufficiently represent complex wetland environments, and the use of this index in ecosystem function models needs to incorporate within-site variation in canopy properties. Mean LAI did not significantly differ between direct and indirect measurement methods on a pooled global sample; however, within some of the specific biomes and wetland types significant contrasts between these approaches were detected. These contrasts highlight unique aspects of wetland vegetation physiology and canopy structure affecting measurement principles that need to be considered in generalizing canopy properties in ecosystem models. Finally, efforts to assess wetland LAI using remote sensing strongly indicate the promise of this technology for cost-effective regional-scale modeling of canopy properties similar to terrestrial systems. However, such efforts urgently require more

  5. A nonlinear support vector machine model with hard penalty function based on glowworm swarm optimization for forecasting daily global solar radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, He; Dong, Yao

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Eclat data mining algorithm is used to determine the possible predictors. • Support vector machine is converted into a ridge regularization problem. • Hard penalty selects the number of radial basis functions to simply the structure. • Glowworm swarm optimization is utilized to determine the optimal parameters. - Abstract: For a portion of the power which is generated by grid connected photovoltaic installations, an effective solar irradiation forecasting approach must be crucial to ensure the quality and the security of power grid. This paper develops and investigates a novel model to forecast 30 daily global solar radiation at four given locations of the United States. Eclat data mining algorithm is first presented to discover association rules between solar radiation and several meteorological factors laying a theoretical foundation for these correlative factors as input vectors. An effective and innovative intelligent optimization model based on nonlinear support vector machine and hard penalty function is proposed to forecast solar radiation by converting support vector machine into a regularization problem with ridge penalty, adding a hard penalty function to select the number of radial basis functions, and using glowworm swarm optimization algorithm to determine the optimal parameters of the model. In order to illustrate our validity of the proposed method, the datasets at four sites of the United States are split to into training data and test data, separately. The experiment results reveal that the proposed model delivers the best forecasting performances comparing with other competitors.

  6. Global scale groundwater flow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutanudjaja, Edwin; de Graaf, Inge; van Beek, Ludovicus; Bierkens, Marc

    2013-04-01

    As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater sustains water flows in streams, rivers, lakes and wetlands, and thus supports ecosystem habitat and biodiversity, while its large natural storage provides a buffer against water shortages. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models does not include a groundwater flow component that is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle and allows the simulation of groundwater head dynamics. In this study we present a steady-state MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) groundwater model on the global scale at 5 arc-minutes resolution. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological model (e.g. Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moorsdorff, in press). We force the groundwtaer model with the output from the large-scale hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the long term net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. We validated calculated groundwater heads and depths with available head observations, from different regions, including the North and South America and Western Europe. Our results show that it is feasible to build a relatively simple global scale groundwater model using existing information, and estimate water table depths within acceptable accuracy in many parts of the world.

  7. A Global Model of Meteoric Sodium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Daniel R.; Janches, Diego; Feng, Wuhu; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-01-01

    A global model of sodium in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere has been developed within the framework of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The standard fully interactive WACCM chemistry module has been augmented with a chemistry scheme that includes nine neutral and ionized sodium species. Meteoric ablation provides the source of sodium in the model and is represented as a combination of a meteoroid input function (MIF) and a parameterized ablation model. The MIF provides the seasonally and latitudinally varying meteoric flux which is modeled taking into consideration the astronomical origins of sporadic meteors and considers variations in particle entry angle, velocity, mass, and the differential ablation of the chemical constituents. WACCM simulations show large variations in the sodium constituents over time scales from days to months. Seasonality of sodium constituents is strongly affected by variations in the MIF and transport via the mean meridional wind. In particular, the summer to winter hemisphere flow leads to the highest sodium species concentrations and loss rates occurring over the winter pole. In the Northern Hemisphere, this winter maximum can be dramatically affected by stratospheric sudden warmings. Simulations of the January 2009 major warming event show that it caused a short-term decrease in the sodium column over the polar cap that was followed by a factor of 3 increase in the following weeks. Overall, the modeled distribution of atomic sodium in WACCM agrees well with both ground-based and satellite observations. Given the strong sensitivity of the sodium layer to dynamical motions, reproducing its variability provides a stringent test of global models and should help to constrain key atmospheric variables in this poorly sampled region of the atmosphere.

  8. The evolution of the global stellar mass function of star clusters: an analytic description

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lamers, H.J.G.L.M.; Baumgardt, H.; Gieles, M.

    2013-01-01

    The evolution of the global stellar mass function of star clusters is studied based on a large set of N-body simulations of clusters with a range of initial masses, initial concentrations, in circular or elliptical orbits in different tidal environments. Models with and without initial mass

  9. A Global Change in Higher Education: Entrepreneurial University Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Süreyya SAKINÇ

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Universities are affected by the social and economic diversity stemmed from globalization and internationalization, and its functions, area of responsibility, organizational structure, funding capability respond this diversity. In today's knowledge society, different new concepts regarding the university education system such as Entrepreneur University, Corporation University, virtual university etc. have been emerged with wave of globalization effect. The rising competition in academic education and the mass demands for education prompt to universities to get seeking new funds for fixing their financial situation, and hit them transforming into entrepreneurial identity. The reflections of neoliberal approach in education have transformed the universities into the corporations which are much more focused on entrepreneurial, student-oriented and aimed to appropriate education and producing creative human resources for global development. In this study, a comprehensive evaluation will be carried on regarding the entrepreneur university model through the litterateur research to investigate its causes and factors that impact and improve it. The aim of the paper is to generate a framework that identifies dynamic processes of entrepreneur university model, dependently the litterateur syntheses. The contribution of the paper will depend on its consequent argument that entrepreneur university model is viable for Turkey. In this paper, the entrepreneur university model will be analyzed by Triple Helix phenomenon with the comparative approach.

  10. Structural Uncertainty in Model-Simulated Trends of Global Gross Primary Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaichun Zhu

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Projected changes in the frequency and severity of droughts as a result of increase in greenhouse gases have a significant impact on the role of vegetation in regulating the global carbon cycle. Drought effect on vegetation Gross Primary Production (GPP is usually modeled as a function of Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD and/or soil moisture. Climate projections suggest a strong likelihood of increasing trend in VPD, while regional changes in precipitation are less certain. This difference in projections between VPD and precipitation can cause considerable discrepancies in the predictions of vegetation behavior depending on how ecosystem models represent the drought effect. In this study, we scrutinized the model responses to drought using the 30-year record of Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS 3g Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI dataset. A diagnostic ecosystem model, Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS, was used to estimate global GPP from 1982 to 2009 under nine different experimental simulations. The control run of global GPP increased until 2000, but stayed constant after 2000. Among the simulations with single climate constraint (temperature, VPD, rainfall and solar radiation, only the VPD-driven simulation showed a decrease in 2000s, while the other scenarios simulated an increase in GPP. The diverging responses in 2000s can be attributed to the difference in the representation of the impact of water stress on vegetation in models, i.e., using VPD and/or precipitation. Spatial map of trend in simulated GPP using GIMMS 3g data is consistent with the GPP driven by soil moisture than the GPP driven by VPD, confirming the need for a soil moisture constraint in modeling global GPP.

  11. Functional diversity of fish in estuaries at a global extent

    OpenAIRE

    Rita P Vasconcelos; Sébastien Villéger; François Guilhaumon

    2015-01-01

    Biodiversity is currently viewed as a framework encompassing multiple facets of the variety of life, including taxonomic and functional aspects. Species richness and composition of fish assemblages in estuaries is defined by global to local processes acting on community colonization. The present study further investigates how biodiversity of fish assemblages varies among estuaries globally, by simultaneously analysing taxonomic and functional richness and diversity of assemblages. A comprehen...

  12. Global sensitivity analysis for models with spatially dependent outputs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iooss, B.; Marrel, A.; Jullien, M.; Laurent, B.

    2011-01-01

    The global sensitivity analysis of a complex numerical model often calls for the estimation of variance-based importance measures, named Sobol' indices. Meta-model-based techniques have been developed in order to replace the CPU time-expensive computer code with an inexpensive mathematical function, which predicts the computer code output. The common meta-model-based sensitivity analysis methods are well suited for computer codes with scalar outputs. However, in the environmental domain, as in many areas of application, the numerical model outputs are often spatial maps, which may also vary with time. In this paper, we introduce an innovative method to obtain a spatial map of Sobol' indices with a minimal number of numerical model computations. It is based upon the functional decomposition of the spatial output onto a wavelet basis and the meta-modeling of the wavelet coefficients by the Gaussian process. An analytical example is presented to clarify the various steps of our methodology. This technique is then applied to a real hydrogeological case: for each model input variable, a spatial map of Sobol' indices is thus obtained. (authors)

  13. Global Atmosphere Watch Workshop on Measurement-Model ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme coordinates high-quality observations of atmospheric composition from global to local scales with the aim to drive high-quality and high-impact science while co-producing a new generation of products and services. In line with this vision, GAW’s Scientific Advisory Group for Total Atmospheric Deposition (SAG-TAD) has a mandate to produce global maps of wet, dry and total atmospheric deposition for important atmospheric chemicals to enable research into biogeochemical cycles and assessments of ecosystem and human health effects. The most suitable scientific approach for this activity is the emerging technique of measurement-model fusion for total atmospheric deposition. This technique requires global-scale measurements of atmospheric trace gases, particles, precipitation composition and precipitation depth, as well as predictions of the same from global/regional chemical transport models. The fusion of measurement and model results requires data assimilation and mapping techniques. The objective of the GAW Workshop on Measurement-Model Fusion for Global Total Atmospheric Deposition (MMF-GTAD), an initiative of the SAG-TAD, was to review the state-of-the-science and explore the feasibility and methodology of producing, on a routine retrospective basis, global maps of atmospheric gas and aerosol concentrations as well as wet, dry and total deposition via measurement-model

  14. Arithmetic geometry over global function fields

    CERN Document Server

    Longhi, Ignazio; Trihan, Fabien

    2014-01-01

    This volume collects the texts of five courses given in the Arithmetic Geometry Research Programme 2009–2010 at the CRM Barcelona. All of them deal with characteristic p global fields; the common theme around which they are centered is the arithmetic of L-functions (and other special functions), investigated in various aspects. Three courses examine some of the most important recent ideas in the positive characteristic theory discovered by Goss (a field in tumultuous development, which is seeing a number of spectacular advances): they cover respectively crystals over function fields (with a number of applications to L-functions of t-motives), gamma and zeta functions in characteristic p, and the binomial theorem. The other two are focused on topics closer to the classical theory of abelian varieties over number fields: they give respectively a thorough introduction to the arithmetic of Jacobians over function fields (including the current status of the BSD conjecture and its geometric analogues, and the con...

  15. A Robust Response of Precipitation to Global Warming from CMIP5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, K. -M.; Wu, H. -T.; Kim, K. -M.

    2012-01-01

    How precipitation responds to global warming is a major concern to society and a challenge to climate change research. Based on analyses of rainfall probability distribution functions of 14 state-of-the-art climate models, we find a robust, canonical global rainfall response to a triple CO2 warming scenario, featuring 100 250% more heavy rain, 5-10% less moderate rain, and 10-15% more very light or no-rain events. Regionally, a majority of the models project a consistent response with more heavy rain events over climatologically wet regions of the deep tropics, and more dry events over subtropical and tropical land areas. Results suggest that increased CO2 emissions induce basic structural changes in global rain systems, increasing risks of severe floods and droughts in preferred geographic locations worldwide.

  16. On global and regional spectral evaluation of global geopotential models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ustun, A; Abbak, R A

    2010-01-01

    Spectral evaluation of global geopotential models (GGMs) is necessary to recognize the behaviour of gravity signal and its error recorded in spherical harmonic coefficients and associated standard deviations. Results put forward in this wise explain the whole contribution of gravity data in different kinds that represent various sections of the gravity spectrum. This method is more informative than accuracy assessment methods, which use external data such as GPS-levelling. Comparative spectral evaluation for more than one model can be performed both in global and local sense using many spectral tools. The number of GGMs has grown with the increasing number of data collected by the dedicated satellite gravity missions, CHAMP, GRACE and GOCE. This fact makes it necessary to measure the differences between models and to monitor the improvements in the gravity field recovery. In this paper, some of the satellite-only and combined models are examined in different scales, globally and regionally, in order to observe the advances in the modelling of GGMs and their strengths at various expansion degrees for geodetic and geophysical applications. The validation of the published errors of model coefficients is a part of this evaluation. All spectral tools explicitly reveal the superiority of the GRACE-based models when compared against the models that comprise the conventional satellite tracking data. The disagreement between models is large in local/regional areas if data sets are different, as seen from the example of the Turkish territory

  17. Evaluation of global solar radiation models for Shanghai, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yao, Wanxiang; Li, Zhengrong; Wang, Yuyan; Jiang, Fujian; Hu, Lingzhou

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • 108 existing models are compared and analyzed by 42 years meteorological data. • Fitting models based on measured data are established according to 42 years data. • All models are compared by recently 10 years meteorological data. • The results show that polynomial models are the most accurate models. - Abstract: In this paper, 89 existing monthly average daily global solar radiation models and 19 existing daily global solar radiation models are compared and analyzed by 42 years meteorological data. The results show that for existing monthly average daily global solar radiation models, linear models and polynomial models have been able to estimate global solar radiation accurately, and complex equation types cannot obviously improve the precision. Considering direct parameters such as latitude, altitude, solar altitude and sunshine duration can help improve the accuracy of the models, but indirect parameters cannot. For existing daily global solar radiation models, multi-parameter models are more accurate than single-parameter models, polynomial models are more accurate than linear models. Then measured data fitting monthly average daily global solar radiation models (MADGSR models) and daily global solar radiation models (DGSR models) are established according to 42 years meteorological data. Finally, existing models and fitting models based on measured data are comparative analysis by recent 10 years meteorological data, and the results show that polynomial models (MADGSR model 2, DGSR model 2 and Maduekwe model 2) are the most accurate models

  18. Global stability of a vaccination model with immigration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Henshaw

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available We study an SVIR model of disease transmission with immigration into all four classes. Vaccinated individuals may only receive partial immunity to the disease, giving a leaky vaccine. The incidence function permits a nonlinear response to the number of infectives, so that mass action and saturating incidence are included as special cases. Because of the immigration of infected individuals, there is no disease-free equilibrium and hence no basic reproduction number. We use the Brouwer Fixed Point Theorem to show that an endemic equilibrium exists and the Poincare-Hopf Theorem to show that it is unique. We show the equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable by using a Lyapunov function.

  19. Assessment of tropospheric delay mapping function models in Egypt: Using PTD database model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdelfatah, M. A.; Mousa, Ashraf E.; El-Fiky, Gamal S.

    2018-06-01

    For space geodetic measurements, estimates of tropospheric delays are highly correlated with site coordinates and receiver clock biases. Thus, it is important to use the most accurate models for the tropospheric delay to reduce errors in the estimates of the other parameters. Both the zenith delay value and mapping function should be assigned correctly to reduce such errors. Several mapping function models can treat the troposphere slant delay. The recent models were not evaluated for the Egyptian local climate conditions. An assessment of these models is needed to choose the most suitable one. The goal of this paper is to test the quality of global mapping function which provides high consistency with precise troposphere delay (PTD) mapping functions. The PTD model is derived from radiosonde data using ray tracing, which consider in this paper as true value. The PTD mapping functions were compared, with three recent total mapping functions model and another three separate dry and wet mapping function model. The results of the research indicate that models are very close up to zenith angle 80°. Saastamoinen and 1/cos z model are behind accuracy. Niell model is better than VMF model. The model of Black and Eisner is a good model. The results also indicate that the geometric range error has insignificant effect on slant delay and the fluctuation of azimuth anti-symmetric is about 1%.

  20. Invited review: A position on the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, M J; Vellinga, T; Opio, C; Falcucci, A; Tempio, G; Henderson, B; Makkar, H; Mottet, A; Robinson, T; Steinfeld, H; Gerber, P J

    2018-02-01

    The livestock sector is one of the fastest growing subsectors of the agricultural economy and, while it makes a major contribution to global food supply and economic development, it also consumes significant amounts of natural resources and alters the environment. In order to improve our understanding of the global environmental impact of livestock supply chains, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has developed the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM). The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of GLEAM. Specifically, it explains the model architecture, methods and functionality, that is the types of analysis that the model can perform. The model focuses primarily on the quantification of greenhouse gases emissions arising from the production of the 11 main livestock commodities. The model inputs and outputs are managed and produced as raster data sets, with spatial resolution of 0.05 decimal degrees. The Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model v1.0 consists of five distinct modules: (a) the Herd Module; (b) the Manure Module; (c) the Feed Module; (d) the System Module; (e) the Allocation Module. In terms of the modelling approach, GLEAM has several advantages. For example spatial information on livestock distributions and crops yields enables rations to be derived that reflect the local availability of feed resources in developing countries. The Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model also contains a herd model that enables livestock statistics to be disaggregated and variation in livestock performance and management to be captured. Priorities for future development of GLEAM include: improving data quality and the methods used to perform emissions calculations; extending the scope of the model to include selected additional environmental impacts and to enable predictive modelling; and improving the utility of GLEAM output.

  1. Global Approximations to Cost and Production Functions using Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Efthymios G. Tsionas

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of cost and production functions in economics relies on standard specifications which are less than satisfactory in numerous situations. However, instead of fitting the data with a pre-specified model, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs let the data itself serve as evidence to support the modelrs estimation of the underlying process. In this context, the proposed approach combines the strengths of economics, statistics and machine learning research and the paper proposes a global approximation to arbitrary cost and production functions, respectively, given by ANNs. Suggestions on implementation are proposed and empirical application relies on standard techniques. All relevant measures such as Returns to Scale (RTS and Total Factor Productivity (TFP may be computed routinely.

  2. Stability and Global Hopf Bifurcation Analysis on a Ratio-Dependent Predator-Prey Model with Two Time Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huitao Zhao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A ratio-dependent predator-prey model with two time delays is studied. By means of an iteration technique, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global attractiveness of the positive equilibrium. By comparison arguments, the global stability of the semitrivial equilibrium is addressed. By using the theory of functional equation and Hopf bifurcation, the conditions on which positive equilibrium exists and the quality of Hopf bifurcation are given. Using a global Hopf bifurcation result of Wu (1998 for functional differential equations, the global existence of the periodic solutions is obtained. Finally, an example for numerical simulations is also included.

  3. Assessment of left ventricular global function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breuel, H.-P.; Baehre, M.

    1985-01-01

    Radionuclide ventriculography (RNV), i.e. noninvasive evaluation of left venticular performance following the application of radionuclides has had a major impact on many aspects of cardiology and has proven its clinical value and reliability in the last few years. This article deals mainly with the changes in global left ventricular function. The clinical applications of RNV for coronary artery diseases and valvular heart diseases are described. (Auth.)

  4. Accountability for Early Childhood Education (Assessing Global Functioning).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassel, Russell N.

    1995-01-01

    Discusses the pacing of learning activity, knowledge of progress in student learning, teacher role, accountability in learning, feedback on knowledge of success, the global functioning assessment concept, and the mother surrogate. (RS)

  5. USING GEM - GLOBAL ECONOMIC MODEL IN ACHIEVING A GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECAST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Madalina Orac

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The global economic development model has proved to be insufficiently reliable under the new economic crisis. As a result, the entire theoretical construction about the global economy needs rethinking and reorientation. In this context, it is quite clear that only through effective use of specific techniques and tools of economic-mathematical modeling, statistics, regional analysis and economic forecasting it is possible to obtain an overview of the future economy.

  6. Global attractivity of an almost periodic N-species nonlinear ecological competitive model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Yonghui; Han, Maoan; Huang, Zhenkun

    2008-01-01

    By using comparison theorem and constructing suitable Lyapunov functional, we study the following almost periodic nonlinear N-species competitive Lotka-Volterra model: A set of sufficient conditions is obtained for the existence and global attractivity of a unique positive almost periodic solution of the above model. As applications, some special competition models are studied again, our new results improve and generalize former results. Examples and their simulations show the feasibility of our main results.

  7. An algorithm to provide UK global radiation for use with models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamer, P.J.C.

    1999-01-01

    Decision support systems which include crop growth models require long-term average values of global radiation to simulate future expected growth. Global radiation is rarely available as there are relatively few meteorological stations with long-term records and so interpolation between sites is difficult. Global radiation data across a good geographical spread throughout the UK were obtained and sub-divided into ‘coastal’ and ‘inland’ sites. Monthly means of global radiation (S) were extracted and analysed in relation to irradiance in the absence of atmosphere (S o ) calculated from site latitude and the time of year. The ratio S/S o was fitted to the month of the year (t) and site latitude using a nonlinear fit function in which 90% of the variance was accounted for. An algorithm is presented which provides long-term daily values of global radiation from information on latitude, time of year and whether the site is inland or close to the coast. (author)

  8. A high-resolution global flood hazard model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, Christopher C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Bates, Paul B.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Freer, Jim E.

    2015-09-01

    Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data-scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross-disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ˜90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high-resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ˜1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ˜5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2-D only variant and an independently developed pan-European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next-generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step-change improvement in model performance.

  9. A statistical light use efficiency model explains 85% variations in global GPP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, C.; Ryu, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Photosynthesis is a complicated process whose modeling requires different levels of assumptions, simplification, and parameterization. Among models, light use efficiency (LUE) model is highly compact but powerful in monitoring gross primary production (GPP) from satellite data. Most of LUE models adopt a multiplicative from of maximum LUE, absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR), and temperature and water stress functions. However, maximum LUE is a fitting parameter with large spatial variations, but most studies only use several biome dependent constants. In addition, stress functions are empirical and arbitrary in literatures. Moreover, meteorological data used are usually coarse-resolution, e.g., 1°, which could cause large errors. Finally, sunlit and shade canopy have completely different light responses but little considered. Targeting these issues, we derived a new statistical LUE model from a process-based and satellite-driven model, the Breathing Earth System Simulator (BESS). We have already derived a set of global radiation (5-km resolution), carbon and water fluxes (1-km resolution) products from 2000 to 2015 from BESS. By exploring these datasets, we found strong correlation between APAR and GPP for sunlit (R2=0.84) and shade (R2=0.96) canopy, respectively. A simple model, only driven by sunlit and shade APAR, was thus built based on linear relationships. The slopes of the linear function act as effective LUE of global ecosystem, with values of 0.0232 and 0.0128 umol C/umol quanta for sunlit and shade canopy, respectively. When compared with MPI-BGC GPP products, a global proxy of FLUXNET data, BESS-LUE achieved an overall accuracy of R2 = 0.85, whereas original BESS was R2 = 0.83 and MODIS GPP product was R2 = 0.76. We investigated spatiotemporal variations of the effective LUE. Spatially, the ratio of sunlit to shade values ranged from 0.1 (wet tropic) to 4.5 (dry inland). By using maps of sunlit and shade effective LUE the accuracy of

  10. A high resolution global scale groundwater model

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Graaf, Inge; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

    2014-05-01

    As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays a vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater storage provides a large natural buffer against water shortage and sustains flows to rivers and wetlands, supporting ecosystem habitats and biodiversity. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, although it is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle. Thus, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system that allows for the simulation of groundwater head dynamics and lateral flows is essential for GHMs that increasingly run at finer resolution. In this study we present a global groundwater model with a resolution of 5 arc-minutes (approximately 10 km at the equator) using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988). With this global groundwater model we eventually intend to simulate the changes in the groundwater system over time that result from variations in recharge and abstraction. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological maps and datasets (Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2013), combined with our estimate of aquifer thickness for sedimentary basins. We forced the groundwater model with the output from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. For the parameterization, we relied entirely on available global datasets and did not calibrate the model so that it can equally be expanded to data poor environments. Based on our sensitivity analysis, in which we run the model with various hydrogeological parameter settings, we observed that most variance in groundwater

  11. Bifurcations in a discrete time model composed of Beverton-Holt function and Ricker function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Jin; Li, Bingtuan; Barnard, Michael R

    2015-05-01

    We provide rigorous analysis for a discrete-time model composed of the Ricker function and Beverton-Holt function. This model was proposed by Lewis and Li [Bull. Math. Biol. 74 (2012) 2383-2402] in the study of a population in which reproduction occurs at a discrete instant of time whereas death and competition take place continuously during the season. We show analytically that there exists a period-doubling bifurcation curve in the model. The bifurcation curve divides the parameter space into the region of stability and the region of instability. We demonstrate through numerical bifurcation diagrams that the regions of periodic cycles are intermixed with the regions of chaos. We also study the global stability of the model. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Inter-comparison of different models for estimating clear sky solar global radiation for the Negev region of Israel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ianetz, Amiran; Lyubansky, Vera; Setter, Ilan; Kriheli, Boris; Evseev, Efim G.; Kudish, Avraham I.

    2007-01-01

    Solar global radiation is a function of solar altitude, site altitude, albedo, atmospheric transparency and cloudiness, whereas solar global radiation on a clear day is defined such that it is a function of all the abovementioned parameters except cloudiness. Consequently, analysis of the relative magnitudes of solar global radiation and solar global radiation on a clear day provides a platform for studying the influence of cloudiness on solar global radiation. The Iqbal filter for determining the day type has been utilized to calculate the monthly average clear day solar global radiation at three sites in the Negev region of Israel. An inter-comparison between four models for estimating clear sky solar global radiation at the three sites was made. The relative accuracy of the four models was determined by comparing the monthly average daily clear sky solar global radiation to that determined using the Iqbal filter. The analysis was performed on databases consisting of measurements made during the time interval of January 1991 to December 2004. The monthly average daily clear sky solar global radiation determined by the Berlynd model was found to give the best agreement with that determined using the Iqbal filter. The Berlynd model was then utilized to calculate a daily clear day index, K c , which is defined as the ratio of the daily solar global radiation to the daily clear day solar global radiation. It is suggested that this index be used as an indication of the degree of cloudiness. Linear regression analysis was performed on the individual monthly databases for each site to determine the correlation between the daily clear day index and the daily clearness index, K T

  13. Photosynthesis-dependent isoprene emission from leaf to planet in a global carbon-chemistry-climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, N.; Harper, K.; Zheng, Y.; Kiang, N. Y.; Aleinov, I.; Arneth, A.; Schurgers, G.; Amelynck, C.; Goldstein, A.; Guenther, A.; Heinesch, B.; Hewitt, C. N.; Karl, T.; Laffineur, Q.; Langford, B.; McKinney, K. A.; Misztal, P.; Potosnak, M.; Rinne, J.; Pressley, S.; Schoon, N.; Serça, D.

    2013-10-01

    We describe the implementation of a biochemical model of isoprene emission that depends on the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis into the Farquhar-Ball-Berry leaf model of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance that is embedded within a global chemistry-climate simulation framework. The isoprene production is calculated as a function of electron transport-limited photosynthesis, intercellular and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, and canopy temperature. The vegetation biophysics module computes the photosynthetic uptake of carbon dioxide coupled with the transpiration of water vapor and the isoprene emission rate at the 30 min physical integration time step of the global chemistry-climate model. In the model, the rate of carbon assimilation provides the dominant control on isoprene emission variability over canopy temperature. A control simulation representative of the present-day climatic state that uses 8 plant functional types (PFTs), prescribed phenology and generic PFT-specific isoprene emission potentials (fraction of electrons available for isoprene synthesis) reproduces 50% of the variability across different ecosystems and seasons in a global database of 28 measured campaign-average fluxes. Compared to time-varying isoprene flux measurements at 9 select sites, the model authentically captures the observed variability in the 30 min average diurnal cycle (R2 = 64-96%) and simulates the flux magnitude to within a factor of 2. The control run yields a global isoprene source strength of 451 TgC yr-1 that increases by 30% in the artificial absence of plant water stress and by 55% for potential natural vegetation.

  14. Photosynthesis-dependent Isoprene Emission from Leaf to Planet in a Global Carbon-chemistry-climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, N.; Harper, K.; Zeng, Y.; Kiang, N. Y.; Alienov, I.; Arneth, A.; Schurgers, G.; Amelynck, C.; Goldstein, A.; Guenther, A.; hide

    2013-01-01

    We describe the implementation of a biochemical model of isoprene emission that depends on the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis into the FarquharBallBerry leaf model of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance that is embedded within a global chemistry-climate simulation framework. The isoprene production is calculated as a function of electron transport-limited photosynthesis, intercellular and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, and canopy temperature. The vegetation biophysics module computes the photosynthetic uptake of carbon dioxide coupled with the transpiration of water vapor and the isoprene emission rate at the 30 min physical integration time step of the global chemistry-climate model. In the model, the rate of carbon assimilation provides the dominant control on isoprene emission variability over canopy temperature. A control simulation representative of the present-day climatic state that uses 8 plant functional types (PFTs), prescribed phenology and generic PFT-specific isoprene emission potentials (fraction of electrons available for isoprene synthesis) reproduces 50 of the variability across different ecosystems and seasons in a global database of 28 measured campaign-average fluxes. Compared to time-varying isoprene flux measurements at 9 select sites, the model authentically captures the observed variability in the 30 min average diurnal cycle (R2 6496) and simulates the flux magnitude to within a factor of 2. The control run yields a global isoprene source strength of 451 TgC yr1 that increases by 30 in the artificial absence of plant water stress and by 55 for potential natural vegetation.

  15. Photosynthesis-dependent isoprene emission from leaf to planet in a global carbon-chemistry-climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Unger, N.; Harper, K.; Zheng, Y.; Kiang, N. Y.; Aleinov, I.; Arneth, Almut; Schurgers, G.; Amelynck, C.; Goldstein, Allen H.; Guenther, Alex B.; Heinesch, B.; Hewitt, C. N.; Karl, T.; Laffineur, Q.; Langford, B.; McKinney, Karena A.; Misztal, P.; Potosnak, M.; Rinne, J.; Pressley, S.; Schoon, N.; Serca, D.

    2013-10-22

    We describe the implementation of a biochemical model of isoprene emission that depends on the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis into the Farquhar/Ball- Berry leaf model of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance that is embedded within a global chemistry-climate simulation framework. The isoprene production is calculated as a function of electron transport-limited photosynthesis, intercellular carbon dioxide concentration, and canopy temperature. The vegetation biophysics module computes the photosynthetic uptake of carbon dioxide coupled with the transpiration of water vapor and the isoprene emission rate at the 30 min physical integration time step of the global chemistry-climate model. In the model, the rate of carbon assimilation provides the dominant control on isoprene emission variability over canopy temperature. A control simulation representative of the present day climatic state that uses plant functional types (PFTs), prescribed phenology and generic PFT-specific isoprene emission potentials (fraction of electrons available for isoprene synthesis) reproduces 50% of the variability across different ecosystems and seasons in a global database of measured campaign-average fluxes. Compared to time-varying isoprene flux measurements at select sites, the model authentically captures the observed variability in the 30 min average diurnal cycle (R2 = 64-96 %) and simulates the flux magnitude to within a factor of 2. The control run yields a global isoprene source strength of 451 TgC yr-1 that increases by 30% in the artificial absence of plant water stress and by 55% for potential natural vegetation.

  16. Cosmic microwave background constraints for global strings and global monopoles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez-Eiguren, Asier; Lizarraga, Joanes; Urrestilla, Jon; Hindmarsh, Mark

    2017-01-01

    We present the first cosmic microwave background (CMB) power spectra from numerical simulations of the global O( N ) linear σ-model, with N =2,3, which have global strings and monopoles as topological defects. In order to compute the CMB power spectra we compute the unequal time correlators (UETCs) of the energy-momentum tensor, showing that they fall off at high wave number faster than naive estimates based on the geometry of the defects, indicating non-trivial (anti-)correlations between the defects and the surrounding Goldstone boson field. We obtain source functions for Einstein-Boltzmann solvers from the UETCs, using a recently developed method that improves the modelling at the radiation-matter transition. We show that the interpolation function that mimics the transition is similar to other defect models, but not identical, confirming the non-universality of the interpolation function. The CMB power spectra for global strings and global monopoles have the same overall shape as those obtained using the non-linear σ-model approximation, which is well captured by a large- N calculation. However, the amplitudes are larger than the large- N calculation would naively predict, and in the case of global strings much larger: a factor of 20 at the peak. Finally we compare the CMB power spectra with the latest CMB data in other to put limits on the allowed contribution to the temperature power spectrum at multipole l = 10 of 1.7% for global strings and 2.4% for global monopoles. These limits correspond to symmetry-breaking scales of 2.9× 10 15 GeV (6.3× 10 14 GeV with the expected logarithmic scaling of the effective string tension between the simulation time and decoupling) and 6.4× 10 15 GeV respectively. The bound on global strings is a significant one for the ultra-light axion scenario with axion masses m a ∼< 10 −28 eV . These upper limits indicate that gravitational waves from global topological defects will not be observable at the gravitational wave

  17. Global motion perception is associated with motor function in 2-year-old children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Benjamin; McKinlay, Christopher J D; Chakraborty, Arijit; Anstice, Nicola S; Jacobs, Robert J; Paudel, Nabin; Yu, Tzu-Ying; Ansell, Judith M; Wouldes, Trecia A; Harding, Jane E

    2017-09-29

    The dorsal visual processing stream that includes V1, motion sensitive area V5 and the posterior parietal lobe, supports visually guided motor function. Two recent studies have reported associations between global motion perception, a behavioural measure of processing in V5, and motor function in pre-school and school aged children. This indicates a relationship between visual and motor development and also supports the use of global motion perception to assess overall dorsal stream function in studies of human neurodevelopment. We investigated whether associations between vision and motor function were present at 2 years of age, a substantially earlier stage of development. The Bayley III test of Infant and Toddler Development and measures of vision including visual acuity (Cardiff Acuity Cards), stereopsis (Lang stereotest) and global motion perception were attempted in 404 2-year-old children (±4 weeks). Global motion perception (quantified as a motion coherence threshold) was assessed by observing optokinetic nystagmus in response to random dot kinematograms of varying coherence. Linear regression revealed that global motion perception was modestly, but statistically significantly associated with Bayley III composite motor (r 2 =0.06, Pmotor scores (r 2 =0.06, pmotor and fine motor scores, but unaided visual acuity was not statistically significantly associated with any of the motor scores. These results demonstrate that global motion perception and binocular vision are associated with motor function at an early stage of development. Global motion perception can be used as a partial measure of dorsal stream function from early childhood. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. A Global Stock and Bond Model

    OpenAIRE

    Connor, Gregory

    1996-01-01

    Factor models are now widely used to support asset selection decisions. Global asset allocation, the allocation between stocks versus bonds and among nations, usually relies instead on correlation analysis of international equity and bond indexes. It would be preferable to have a single integrated framework for both asset selection and asset allocation. This framework would require a factor model applicable at an asset or country level, as well as at a global level,...

  19. Global thermal models of the lithosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cammarano, F.; Guerri, M.

    2017-12-01

    Unraveling the thermal structure of the outermost shell of our planet is key for understanding its evolution. We obtain temperatures from interpretation of global shear-velocity (VS) models. Long-wavelength thermal structure is well determined by seismic models and only slightly affected by compositional effects and uncertainties in mineral-physics properties. Absolute temperatures and gradients with depth, however, are not well constrained. Adding constraints from petrology, heat-flow observations and thermal evolution of oceanic lithosphere help to better estimate absolute temperatures in the top part of the lithosphere. We produce global thermal models of the lithosphere at different spatial resolution, up to spherical-harmonics degree 24, and provide estimated standard deviations. We provide purely seismic thermal (TS) model and hybrid models where temperatures are corrected with steady-state conductive geotherms on continents and cooling model temperatures on oceanic regions. All relevant physical properties, with the exception of thermal conductivity, are based on a self-consistent thermodynamical modelling approach. Our global thermal models also include density and compressional-wave velocities (VP) as obtained either assuming no lateral variations in composition or a simple reference 3-D compositional structure, which takes into account a chemically depleted continental lithosphere. We found that seismically-derived temperatures in continental lithosphere fit well, overall, with continental geotherms, but a large variation in radiogenic heat is required to reconcile them with heat flow (long wavelength) observations. Oceanic shallow lithosphere below mid-oceanic ridges and young oceans is colder than expected, confirming the possible presence of a dehydration boundary around 80 km depth already suggested in previous studies. The global thermal models should serve as the basis to move at a smaller spatial scale, where additional thermo-chemical variations

  20. A general psychopathology factor (P factor) in children: Structural model analysis and external validation through familial risk and child global executive function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martel, Michelle M; Pan, Pedro M; Hoffmann, Maurício S; Gadelha, Ary; do Rosário, Maria C; Mari, Jair J; Manfro, Gisele G; Miguel, Eurípedes C; Paus, Tomás; Bressan, Rodrigo A; Rohde, Luis A; Salum, Giovanni A

    2017-01-01

    High rates of comorbidities and poor validity of disorder diagnostic criteria for mental disorders hamper advances in mental health research. Recent work has suggested the utility of continuous cross-cutting dimensions, including general psychopathology and specific factors of externalizing and internalizing (e.g., distress and fear) syndromes. The current study evaluated the reliability of competing structural models of psychopathology and examined external validity of the best fitting model on the basis of family risk and child global executive function (EF). A community sample of 8,012 families from Brazil with children ages 6-12 years completed structured interviews about the child and parental psychiatric syndromes, and a subsample of 2,395 children completed tasks assessing EF (i.e., working memory, inhibitory control, and time processing). Confirmatory factor analyses tested a series of structural models of psychopathology in both parents and children. The model with a general psychopathology factor ("P factor") with 3 specific factors (fear, distress, and externalizing) exhibited the best fit. The general P factor accounted for most of the variance in all models, with little residual variance explained by each of the 3 specific factors. In addition, associations between child and parental factors were mainly significant for the P factors and nonsignificant for the specific factors from the respective models. Likewise, the child P factor-but not the specific factors-was significantly associated with global child EF. Overall, our results provide support for a latent overarching P factor characterizing child psychopathology, supported by familial associations and child EF. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. A Global Atmospheric Model of Meteoric Iron

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Wuhu; Marsh, Daniel R.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Janches, Diego; Hoffner, Josef; Yi, Fan; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-01-01

    The first global model of meteoric iron in the atmosphere (WACCM-Fe) has been developed by combining three components: the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a description of the neutral and ion-molecule chemistry of iron in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), and a treatment of the injection of meteoric constituents into the atmosphere. The iron chemistry treats seven neutral and four ionized iron containing species with 30 neutral and ion-molecule reactions. The meteoric input function (MIF), which describes the injection of Fe as a function of height, latitude, and day, is precalculated from an astronomical model coupled to a chemical meteoric ablation model (CABMOD). This newly developed WACCM-Fe model has been evaluated against a number of available ground-based lidar observations and performs well in simulating the mesospheric atomic Fe layer. The model reproduces the strong positive correlation of temperature and Fe density around the Fe layer peak and the large anticorrelation around 100 km. The diurnal tide has a significant effect in the middle of the layer, and the model also captures well the observed seasonal variations. However, the model overestimates the peak Fe+ concentration compared with the limited rocket-borne mass spectrometer data available, although good agreement on the ion layer underside can be obtained by adjusting the rate coefficients for dissociative recombination of Fe-molecular ions with electrons. Sensitivity experiments with the same chemistry in a 1-D model are used to highlight significant remaining uncertainties in reaction rate coefficients, and to explore the dependence of the total Fe abundance on the MIF and rate of vertical transport.

  2. A Simple Model of Global Aerosol Indirect Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghan, Steven J.; Smith, Steven J.; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Kai; Pringle, Kirsty; Carslaw, Kenneth; Pierce, Jeffrey; Bauer, Susanne; Adams, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) using analytic representations of cloud and aerosol distributions and processes. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of AIEs that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates by the simple model are sensitive to preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, preindustrial accumulation mode radius, width of the accumulation mode, size of primary particles, cloud thickness, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Estimates of present-day AIEs as low as 5 W/sq m and as high as 0.3 W/sq m are obtained for plausible sets of parameter values. Estimates are surprisingly linear in emissions. The estimates depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models, which adds to understanding of the dependence on AIE uncertainty on uncertainty in parameter values.

  3. The status and challenge of global fire modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

    2016-06-01

    Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

  4. Global nuclear material flow/control model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dreicer, J.S.; Rutherford, D.S.; Fasel, P.K.; Riese, J.M.

    1997-01-01

    This is the final report of a two-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The nuclear danger can be reduced by a system for global management, protection, control, and accounting as part of an international regime for nuclear materials. The development of an international fissile material management and control regime requires conceptual research supported by an analytical and modeling tool which treats the nuclear fuel cycle as a complete system. The prototype model developed visually represents the fundamental data, information, and capabilities related to the nuclear fuel cycle in a framework supportive of national or an international perspective. This includes an assessment of the global distribution of military and civilian fissile material inventories, a representation of the proliferation pertinent physical processes, facility specific geographic identification, and the capability to estimate resource requirements for the management and control of nuclear material. The model establishes the foundation for evaluating the global production, disposition, and safeguards and security requirements for fissile nuclear material and supports the development of other pertinent algorithmic capabilities necessary to undertake further global nuclear material related studies

  5. Globalization and Europeanization. A Projection on a European Model of Public Administration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ani Matei

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available The specialized studies and literature present moreover and insistently the connection between globalization and Europeanization, more precisely between globalization and a European model of integration, whose features aim to set up a global-type European society. The development of the European model of integration starts with economic elements, it reveals nowadays the Economic and Monetary Union and in perspective it will be structured within a sui generis system of transnational governance. The values of the European model of integration become fundamental values of a social process, with powerful economic and political determinations, aiming the multi-causal interference between individual, community and European construction. This process, remarked increasingly in the specialized literature, being assigned with the name of Europeanization, has got original, functional features in the spectrum of significations of the globalization paradigm. As essential global-type formula, within Europeanization, we shall find models with economic, political or social finality, integrating also a model of administration among the latter ones. When we say administration, we refer to its up dated and adequate contents to the new European developments. This assertion derives from a less economic modality to conceptualize the relationship between globalization and Europeanization, presenting Europeanization more as a political adaptation to globalization and even a political expression of globalization. In this context, the development of a system for European governance on several levels (local, regional, national, intergovernmental and supranational suggests its evolution towards globalization. In fact, the literature specific for Europeanization asserts the fact that the European model has also features with integrative nature related to the supranational and trans-governmental dimensions, as well as features with normative nature in view of harmonization

  6. Modeling of the Global Water Cycle - Analytical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yongqiang Liu; Roni Avissar

    2005-01-01

    Both numerical and analytical models of coupled atmosphere and its underlying ground components (land, ocean, ice) are useful tools for modeling the global and regional water cycle. Unlike complex three-dimensional climate models, which need very large computing resources and involve a large number of complicated interactions often difficult to interpret, analytical...

  7. Validation of A Global Hydrological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doell, P.; Lehner, B.; Kaspar, F.; Vassolo, S.

    Freshwater availability has been recognized as a global issue, and its consistent quan- tification not only in individual river basins but also at the global scale is required to support the sustainable use of water. The Global Hydrology Model WGHM, which is a submodel of the global water use and availability model WaterGAP 2, computes sur- face runoff, groundwater recharge and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.5. WGHM is based on the best global data sets currently available, including a newly developed drainage direction map and a data set of wetlands, lakes and reservoirs. It calculates both natural and actual discharge by simulating the reduction of river discharge by human water consumption (as computed by the water use submodel of WaterGAP 2). WGHM is calibrated against observed discharge at 724 gauging sta- tions (representing about 50% of the global land area) by adjusting a parameter of the soil water balance. It not only computes the long-term average water resources but also water availability indicators that take into account the interannual and seasonal variability of runoff and discharge. The reliability of the model results is assessed by comparing observed and simulated discharges at the calibration stations and at se- lected other stations. We conclude that reliable results can be obtained for basins of more than 20,000 km2. In particular, the 90% reliable monthly discharge is simu- lated well. However, there is the tendency that semi-arid and arid basins are modeled less satisfactorily than humid ones, which is partially due to neglecting river channel losses and evaporation of runoff from small ephemeral ponds in the model. Also, the hydrology of highly developed basins with large artificial storages, basin transfers and irrigation schemes cannot be simulated well. The seasonality of discharge in snow- dominated basins is overestimated by WGHM, and if the snow-dominated basin is uncalibrated, discharge is likely to be underestimated

  8. The 3-D global spatial data model foundation of the spatial data infrastructure

    CERN Document Server

    Burkholder, Earl F

    2008-01-01

    Traditional methods for handling spatial data are encumbered by the assumption of separate origins for horizontal and vertical measurements. Modern measurement systems operate in a 3-D spatial environment. The 3-D Global Spatial Data Model: Foundation of the Spatial Data Infrastructure offers a new model for handling digital spatial data, the global spatial data model or GSDM. The GSDM preserves the integrity of three-dimensional spatial data while also providing additional benefits such as simpler equations, worldwide standardization, and the ability to track spatial data accuracy with greater specificity and convenience. This groundbreaking spatial model incorporates both a functional model and a stochastic model to connect the physical world to the ECEF rectangular system. Combining horizontal and vertical data into a single, three-dimensional database, this authoritative monograph provides a logical development of theoretical concepts and practical tools that can be used to handle spatial data mo...

  9. Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, Jenny, H.-T.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2012-01-01

    Changes in rainfall characteristic induced by global warming are examined from outputs of IPCC AR5 models. Different scenarios of climate warming including a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a medium mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5), and 1% per year CO2 increase are compared to 20th century simulations (historical). Results show that even though the spatial distribution of monthly rainfall anomalies vary greatly among models, the ensemble mean from a sizable sample (about 10) of AR5 models show a robust signal attributable to GHG warming featuring a shift in the global rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) with significant increase (>100%) in very heavy rain, reduction (10-20% ) in moderate rain and increase in light to very light rains. Changes in extreme rainfall as a function of seasons and latitudes are also examined, and are similar to the non-seasonal stratified data, but with more specific spatial dependence. These results are consistent from TRMM and GPCP rainfall observations suggesting that extreme rainfall events are occurring more frequently with wet areas getting wetter and dry-area-getting drier in a GHG induced warmer climate.

  10. Statistical models of global Langmuir mixing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qing; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Breivik, Øyvind; Webb, Adrean

    2017-05-01

    The effects of Langmuir mixing on the surface ocean mixing may be parameterized by applying an enhancement factor which depends on wave, wind, and ocean state to the turbulent velocity scale in the K-Profile Parameterization. Diagnosing the appropriate enhancement factor online in global climate simulations is readily achieved by coupling with a prognostic wave model, but with significant computational and code development expenses. In this paper, two alternatives that do not require a prognostic wave model, (i) a monthly mean enhancement factor climatology, and (ii) an approximation to the enhancement factor based on the empirical wave spectra, are explored and tested in a global climate model. Both appear to reproduce the Langmuir mixing effects as estimated using a prognostic wave model, with nearly identical and substantial improvements in the simulated mixed layer depth and intermediate water ventilation over control simulations, but significantly less computational cost. Simpler approaches, such as ignoring Langmuir mixing altogether or setting a globally constant Langmuir number, are found to be deficient. Thus, the consequences of Stokes depth and misaligned wind and waves are important.

  11. Quantitation of global and regional left ventricular function by MRI

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Geest, RJ; Reiber, JHC; Reiber, JHC; VanDerWall, EE

    1998-01-01

    Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) provides several imaging strategies for assessing left ventricular function. As a three-dimensional imaging technique, all measurements can be performed without relying on geometrical assumptions. Global and regional function parameters can be derived from

  12. Evaluation of Global Photosynthesis and BVOC Emission Covariance with Climate in NASA ModelE2-Y

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, N.

    2012-12-01

    Terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP), a measure of the total amount of CO2 removed from the atmosphere every year to fuel photosynthesis, is the largest global carbon flux. GPP is vital for human welfare as the basis for food and fiber, and provides the crucial ecosystem service of reducing the accumulation of fossil fuel CO2 in the atmosphere. Land plants emit a significant fraction of the assimilated carbon back to the atmosphere in the form of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). Isoprene is the dominant BVOC emission with an estimated global source of 200-660 TgC/yr. Global monoterpene emission estimates range from 30-130 TgC/yr. BVOC photochemical oxidation exerts a profound impact on the distribution and variability of the short-lived climate forcers: ozone, biogenic secondary organic aerosol and methane. Here, we apply multiple observational datasets from a suite of platforms to evaluate an updated global chemistry-climate model that is coupled to a new vegetation biophysics scheme incorporating photosynthesis-dependent BVOC emissions (NASA ModelE2-Y). A fixed vegetation structure dataset based on 8 plant functional types and prescribed phenology including crop planting and harvesting gives GPP of 128 PgC/yr and a global isoprene source of 200TgC/yr. The model GPP captures 85% of the annual average zonal mean variability in a FLUXNET-derived global dataset that was generated by data orientated diagnostic upscaling. We assess model BVOC emission climatology against a comprehensive database of campaign-average above canopy flux measurements and surface concentrations of isoprene and monoterpene collected between 1995-2010 across a wide range of ecosystem types, regions and seasons (> 25 flux estimates; > 22 surface concentration values). We evaluate the diurnal, seasonal and interannual integrity of the model BVOC variability against 9 sites for isoprene and 4 sites for monoterpene. The model captures ~60% of the variability in the time

  13. Global stability of two models with incomplete treatment for tuberculosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Yali; Li Jianquan; Ma Zhien; Liu Luju

    2010-01-01

    Research highlights: → Two tuberculosis models with incomplete treatment. → Intuitive epidemiological interpretations for the basic reproduction numbers. → Global dynamics of the two models. → Strategies to control the spread of tuberculosis. - Abstract: Two tuberculosis (TB) models with incomplete treatment are investigated. It is assumed that the treated individuals may enter either the latent compartment due to the remainder of Mycobacterium tuberculosis or the infectious compartment due to the treatment failure. The first model is a simple one with treatment failure reflecting the current TB treatment fact in most countries with high tuberculosis incidence. The second model refines the simple one by dividing the latent compartment into slow and fast two kinds of progresses. This improvement can be used to describe the case that the latent TB individuals have been infected with some other chronic diseases (such as HIV and diabetes) which may weaken the immunity of infected individuals and shorten the latent period of TB. Both of the two models assume mass action incidence and exponential distributions of transfers between different compartments. The basic reproduction numbers of the two models are derived and their intuitive epidemiological interpretations are given. The global dynamics of two models are all proved by using Liapunov functions. At last, some strategies to control the spread of tuberculosis are discussed.

  14. GEM - The Global Earthquake Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, A.

    2009-04-01

    Over 500,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. In many seismic regions, no hazard and risk models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts, or available only for commercial purposes. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers the need for an openly accessible risk management tool. GEM is an internationally sanctioned public private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake hazard and risk, and will be designed to serve as the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, at global, regional and local scale. The work is organized in three modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic impact. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, building vulnerability, and the distribution of population and of exposed values and facilities. The socio-economic impact module delivers tools for making educated decisions to mitigate and manage risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool, with open source code and a map-based graphical interface. The underlying data will be open wherever possible, and its modular input and output will be adapted to multiple user groups: scientists and engineers, risk managers and decision makers in the public and private sectors, and the public-at- large. GEM will be the first global model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence. Its development will occur in a

  15. Photosynthesis-dependent isoprene emission from leaf to planet in a global carbon-chemistry-climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Unger

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We describe the implementation of a biochemical model of isoprene emission that depends on the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis into the Farquhar–Ball–Berry leaf model of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance that is embedded within a global chemistry-climate simulation framework. The isoprene production is calculated as a function of electron transport-limited photosynthesis, intercellular and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, and canopy temperature. The vegetation biophysics module computes the photosynthetic uptake of carbon dioxide coupled with the transpiration of water vapor and the isoprene emission rate at the 30 min physical integration time step of the global chemistry-climate model. In the model, the rate of carbon assimilation provides the dominant control on isoprene emission variability over canopy temperature. A control simulation representative of the present-day climatic state that uses 8 plant functional types (PFTs, prescribed phenology and generic PFT-specific isoprene emission potentials (fraction of electrons available for isoprene synthesis reproduces 50% of the variability across different ecosystems and seasons in a global database of 28 measured campaign-average fluxes. Compared to time-varying isoprene flux measurements at 9 select sites, the model authentically captures the observed variability in the 30 min average diurnal cycle (R2 = 64–96% and simulates the flux magnitude to within a factor of 2. The control run yields a global isoprene source strength of 451 TgC yr−1 that increases by 30% in the artificial absence of plant water stress and by 55% for potential natural vegetation.

  16. Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Bates, Paul; De Groeve, Tom; Muis, Sanne; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Rudari, Roberto; Mark, Trigg; Winsemius, Hessel

    2016-04-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742

  17. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  18. Correcting for Blood Arrival Time in Global Mean Regression Enhances Functional Connectivity Analysis of Resting State fMRI-BOLD Signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdoğan, Sinem B; Tong, Yunjie; Hocke, Lia M; Lindsey, Kimberly P; deB Frederick, Blaise

    2016-01-01

    Resting state functional connectivity analysis is a widely used method for mapping intrinsic functional organization of the brain. Global signal regression (GSR) is commonly employed for removing systemic global variance from resting state BOLD-fMRI data; however, recent studies have demonstrated that GSR may introduce spurious negative correlations within and between functional networks, calling into question the meaning of anticorrelations reported between some networks. In the present study, we propose that global signal from resting state fMRI is composed primarily of systemic low frequency oscillations (sLFOs) that propagate with cerebral blood circulation throughout the brain. We introduce a novel systemic noise removal strategy for resting state fMRI data, "dynamic global signal regression" (dGSR), which applies a voxel-specific optimal time delay to the global signal prior to regression from voxel-wise time series. We test our hypothesis on two functional systems that are suggested to be intrinsically organized into anticorrelated networks: the default mode network (DMN) and task positive network (TPN). We evaluate the efficacy of dGSR and compare its performance with the conventional "static" global regression (sGSR) method in terms of (i) explaining systemic variance in the data and (ii) enhancing specificity and sensitivity of functional connectivity measures. dGSR increases the amount of BOLD signal variance being modeled and removed relative to sGSR while reducing spurious negative correlations introduced in reference regions by sGSR, and attenuating inflated positive connectivity measures. We conclude that incorporating time delay information for sLFOs into global noise removal strategies is of crucial importance for optimal noise removal from resting state functional connectivity maps.

  19. A vertically resolved, global, gap-free ozone database for assessing or constraining global climate model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. E. Bodeker

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available High vertical resolution ozone measurements from eight different satellite-based instruments have been merged with data from the global ozonesonde network to calculate monthly mean ozone values in 5° latitude zones. These ''Tier 0'' ozone number densities and ozone mixing ratios are provided on 70 altitude levels (1 to 70 km and on 70 pressure levels spaced ~ 1 km apart (878.4 hPa to 0.046 hPa. The Tier 0 data are sparse and do not cover the entire globe or altitude range. To provide a gap-free database, a least squares regression model is fitted to the Tier 0 data and then evaluated globally. The regression model fit coefficients are expanded in Legendre polynomials to account for latitudinal structure, and in Fourier series to account for seasonality. Regression model fit coefficient patterns, which are two dimensional fields indexed by latitude and month of the year, from the N-th vertical level serve as an initial guess for the fit at the N + 1-th vertical level. The initial guess field for the first fit level (20 km/58.2 hPa was derived by applying the regression model to total column ozone fields. Perturbations away from the initial guess are captured through the Legendre and Fourier expansions. By applying a single fit at each level, and using the approach of allowing the regression fits to change only slightly from one level to the next, the regression is less sensitive to measurement anomalies at individual stations or to individual satellite-based instruments. Particular attention is paid to ensuring that the low ozone abundances in the polar regions are captured. By summing different combinations of contributions from different regression model basis functions, four different ''Tier 1'' databases have been compiled for different intended uses. This database is suitable for assessing ozone fields from chemistry-climate model simulations or for providing the ozone boundary conditions for global climate model simulations that do not

  20. Globalization and Shanghai Model: A Retrospective and Prospective Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linsun Cheng

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Intended to shed light on the debate on the results of globalization and providebetter understanding of the influences of globalization upon China as well as theworld, this article traces the history of Shanghai’s economic globalization over thepast 170 years since 1843 and demonstrates the benefits and problems Shanghaireceived from (or connected to its economic globalization. Divided into threesections (Globalization, de-globalization and re-globalization of Shanghai’s economy;Manufacturing-Oriented vs. Tertiary-oriented—Shanghai’s Double PriorityStrategy of Economic Growth; Free market, state enterprises, and Shanghai’s mixedeconomy the article summarizes and analyzes several characteristics that madeShanghai a unique model in the history of globalization: In adapting and adoptinginevitable economic globalization, Shanghai created its unique model of economicdevelopment—widely embracing economic globalization; placing Shanghai’seconomy on a solid foundation of both strong modern manufacturing and strongtertiary industry (consisting of finance and insurance, real estate, transportations,post and telecommunication, wholesale and retailing; and creating a mixedeconomic structure with hybrid of private and state owned enterprises. TheShanghai model proves that globalization has been an unavoidable trend as scienceand technology have made the world “smaller” and “smaller.” Actively engaging intoeconomic globalization is the only way for Shanghai, as well as many developingcountries, to accelerate its economic growth.

  1. On the evaluation of global sea-salt aerosol models at coastal/orographic sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spada, M.; Jorba, O.; Pérez García-Pando, C.; Janjic, Z.; Baldasano, J. M.

    2015-01-01

    Sea-salt aerosol global models are typically evaluated against concentration observations at coastal stations that are unaffected by local surf conditions and thus considered representative of open ocean conditions. Despite recent improvements in sea-salt source functions, studies still show significant model errors in specific regions. Using a multiscale model, we investigated the effect of high model resolution (0.1° × 0.1° vs. 1° × 1.4°) upon sea-salt patterns in four stations from the University of Miami Network: Baring Head, Chatam Island, and Invercargill in New Zealand, and Marion Island in the sub-antarctic Indian Ocean. Normalized biases improved from +63.7% to +3.3% and correlation increased from 0.52 to 0.84. The representation of sea/land interfaces, mesoscale circulations, and precipitation with the higher resolution model played a major role in the simulation of annual concentration trends. Our results recommend caution when comparing or constraining global models using surface concentration observations from coastal stations.

  2. about imagery and function of a promised global catastrophe

    OpenAIRE

    Rainer, Bettina

    2010-01-01

    The present discourse on overpopulation is functional for the defence and stabilization of the economical and political position of power of the West. It applies accordingly to the realistic social conditions / relations, which means for today the reality of a global / globalized world economy. Over and above that the discourse on overpopulation can, however, be understood as an expression of the specifically modern endeavour to acquire control over life and death and if possible to produce i...

  3. New Temperature-based Models for Predicting Global Solar Radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, Gasser E.; Youssef, M. Elsayed; Mohamed, Zahraa E.; Ali, Mohamed A.; Hanafy, Ahmed A.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • New temperature-based models for estimating solar radiation are investigated. • The models are validated against 20-years measured data of global solar radiation. • The new temperature-based model shows the best performance for coastal sites. • The new temperature-based model is more accurate than the sunshine-based models. • The new model is highly applicable with weather temperature forecast techniques. - Abstract: This study presents new ambient-temperature-based models for estimating global solar radiation as alternatives to the widely used sunshine-based models owing to the unavailability of sunshine data at all locations around the world. Seventeen new temperature-based models are established, validated and compared with other three models proposed in the literature (the Annandale, Allen and Goodin models) to estimate the monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. These models are developed using a 20-year measured dataset of global solar radiation for the case study location (Lat. 30°51′N and long. 29°34′E), and then, the general formulae of the newly suggested models are examined for ten different locations around Egypt. Moreover, the local formulae for the models are established and validated for two coastal locations where the general formulae give inaccurate predictions. Mostly common statistical errors are utilized to evaluate the performance of these models and identify the most accurate model. The obtained results show that the local formula for the most accurate new model provides good predictions for global solar radiation at different locations, especially at coastal sites. Moreover, the local and general formulas of the most accurate temperature-based model also perform better than the two most accurate sunshine-based models from the literature. The quick and accurate estimations of the global solar radiation using this approach can be employed in the design and evaluation of performance for

  4. Cosmic microwave background constraints for global strings and global monopoles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopez-Eiguren, Asier; Lizarraga, Joanes; Urrestilla, Jon [Department of Theoretical Physics, University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU, 48080 Bilbao (Spain); Hindmarsh, Mark, E-mail: asier.lopez@ehu.eus, E-mail: joanes.lizarraga@ehu.eus, E-mail: m.b.hindmarsh@sussex.ac.uk, E-mail: jon.urrestilla@ehu.eus [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Sussex, Brighton, BN1 9QH (United Kingdom)

    2017-07-01

    We present the first cosmic microwave background (CMB) power spectra from numerical simulations of the global O( N ) linear σ-model, with N =2,3, which have global strings and monopoles as topological defects. In order to compute the CMB power spectra we compute the unequal time correlators (UETCs) of the energy-momentum tensor, showing that they fall off at high wave number faster than naive estimates based on the geometry of the defects, indicating non-trivial (anti-)correlations between the defects and the surrounding Goldstone boson field. We obtain source functions for Einstein-Boltzmann solvers from the UETCs, using a recently developed method that improves the modelling at the radiation-matter transition. We show that the interpolation function that mimics the transition is similar to other defect models, but not identical, confirming the non-universality of the interpolation function. The CMB power spectra for global strings and global monopoles have the same overall shape as those obtained using the non-linear σ-model approximation, which is well captured by a large- N calculation. However, the amplitudes are larger than the large- N calculation would naively predict, and in the case of global strings much larger: a factor of 20 at the peak. Finally we compare the CMB power spectra with the latest CMB data in other to put limits on the allowed contribution to the temperature power spectrum at multipole l = 10 of 1.7% for global strings and 2.4% for global monopoles. These limits correspond to symmetry-breaking scales of 2.9× 10{sup 15} GeV (6.3× 10{sup 14} GeV with the expected logarithmic scaling of the effective string tension between the simulation time and decoupling) and 6.4× 10{sup 15} GeV respectively. The bound on global strings is a significant one for the ultra-light axion scenario with axion masses m {sub a} ∼< 10{sup −28} eV . These upper limits indicate that gravitational waves from global topological defects will not be observable at

  5. Functional State Modelling of Cultivation Processes: Dissolved Oxygen Limitation State

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olympia Roeva

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available A new functional state, namely dissolved oxygen limitation state for both bacteria Escherichia coli and yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae fed-batch cultivation processes is presented in this study. Functional state modelling approach is applied to cultivation processes in order to overcome the main disadvantages of using global process model, namely complex model structure and a big number of model parameters. Alongwith the newly introduced dissolved oxygen limitation state, second acetate production state and first acetate production state are recognized during the fed-batch cultivation of E. coli, while mixed oxidative state and first ethanol production state are recognized during the fed-batch cultivation of S. cerevisiae. For all mentioned above functional states both structural and parameter identification is here performed based on experimental data of E. coli and S. cerevisiae fed-batch cultivations.

  6. Modeling urbanization patterns at a global scale with generative adversarial networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, A. T.; Strano, E.; Gonzalez, M.

    2017-12-01

    Current demographic projections show that, in the next 30 years, global population growth will mostly take place in developing countries. Coupled with a decrease in density, such population growth could potentially double the land occupied by settlements by 2050. The lack of reliable and globally consistent socio-demographic data, coupled with the limited predictive performance underlying traditional urban spatial explicit models, call for developing better predictive methods, calibrated using a globally-consistent dataset. Thus, richer models of the spatial interplay between the urban built-up land, population distribution and energy use are central to the discussion around the expansion and development of cities, and their impact on the environment in the context of a changing climate. In this talk we discuss methods for, and present an analysis of, urban form, defined as the spatial distribution of macroeconomic quantities that characterize a city, using modern machine learning methods and best-available remote-sensing data for the world's largest 25,000 cities. We first show that these cities may be described by a small set of patterns in radial building density, nighttime luminosity, and population density, which highlight, to first order, differences in development and land use across the world. We observe significant, spatially-dependent variance around these typical patterns, which would be difficult to model using traditional statistical methods. We take a first step in addressing this challenge by developing CityGAN, a conditional generative adversarial network model for simulating realistic urban forms. To guide learning and measure the quality of the simulated synthetic cities, we develop a specialized loss function for GAN optimization that incorporates standard spatial statistics used by urban analysis experts. Our framework is a stark departure from both the standard physics-based approaches in the literature (that view urban forms as fractals with a

  7. Validation of a Global Hydrodynamic Flood Inundation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Alfieri, L.; Neal, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    In this work we present first validation results for a hyper-resolution global flood inundation model. We use a true hydrodynamic model (LISFLOOD-FP) to simulate flood inundation at 1km resolution globally and then use downscaling algorithms to determine flood extent and depth at 90m spatial resolution. Terrain data are taken from a custom version of the SRTM data set that has been processed specifically for hydrodynamic modelling. Return periods of flood flows along the entire global river network are determined using: (1) empirical relationships between catchment characteristics and index flood magnitude in different hydroclimatic zones derived from global runoff data; and (2) an index flood growth curve, also empirically derived. Bankful return period flow is then used to set channel width and depth, and flood defence impacts are modelled using empirical relationships between GDP, urbanization and defence standard of protection. The results of these simulations are global flood hazard maps for a number of different return period events from 1 in 5 to 1 in 1000 years. We compare these predictions to flood hazard maps developed by national government agencies in the UK and Germany using similar methods but employing detailed local data, and to observed flood extent at a number of sites including St. Louis, USA and Bangkok in Thailand. Results show that global flood hazard models can have considerable skill given careful treatment to overcome errors in the publicly available data that are used as their input.

  8. Calculation of probability density functions for temperature and precipitation change under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watterson, Ian G.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: he IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Meehl ef al. 2007) presents multi-model means of the CMIP3 simulations as projections of the global climate change over the 21st century under several SRES emission scenarios. To assess the possible range of change for Australia based on the CMIP3 ensemble, we can follow Whetton etal. (2005) and use the 'pattern scaling' approach, which separates the uncertainty in the global mean warming from that in the local change per degree of warming. This study presents several ways of representing these two factors as probability density functions (PDFs). The beta distribution, a smooth, bounded, function allowing skewness, is found to provide a useful representation of the range of CMIP3 results. A weighting of models based on their skill in simulating seasonal means in the present climate over Australia is included. Dessai ef al. (2005) and others have used Monte-Carlo sampling to recombine such global warming and scaled change factors into values of net change. Here, we use a direct integration of the product across the joint probability space defined by the two PDFs. The result is a cumulative distribution function (CDF) for change, for each variable, location, and season. The median of this distribution provides a best estimate of change, while the 10th and 90th percentiles represent a likely range. The probability of exceeding a specified threshold can also be extracted from the CDF. The presentation focuses on changes in Australian temperature and precipitation at 2070 under the A1B scenario. However, the assumption of linearity behind pattern scaling allows results for different scenarios and times to be simply obtained. In the case of precipitation, which must remain non-negative, a simple modification of the calculations (based on decreases being exponential with warming) is used to avoid unrealistic results. These approaches are currently being used for the new CSIRO/ Bureau of Meteorology climate projections

  9. Process-based modelling of phosphorus transformations and retention in global rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilmin, Lauriane; Mogollon, Jose; Beusen, Arthur; Bouwman, Lex

    2016-04-01

    Phosphorus (P) plays a major role in the biogeochemical functioning of aquatic systems. It typically acts as the limiting nutrient for primary productivity in freshwater bodies, and thus the increase in anthropogenic P loads during the XXth century has fuelled the eutrophication of these systems. Total P retention in global rivers has also escalated over this timeframe as demonstrated via a global model that implements the spiralling method at a spatial resolution of 0.5° (IMAGE-GNM, Beusen et al., 2015). Here, we refine this coupled hydrological - nutrient model by including mechanistic biogeochemical interactions that govern the P cycle. Special attention is paid to the representation of particle processes (i.e. particle loading, sedimentation and erosion), which play a major role in P transport and accumulation in aquatic systems. Our preliminary results are compared to measurements of suspended sediments, total P and orthophosphates in selected river basins. Initial model results show that P concentrations are particularly sensitive to particulate load distribution in the river network within a grid cell. This novel modelling approach will eventually allow a better assessment of the amounts of different forms of P (organic P, soluble reactive P, and particulate inorganic P), of P transformation rates and retention in inland waters. References Beusen, A.H.W., Van Beek, L.P.H., Bouwman, A.F., Mogollón, J.M., Middelburg, J.J. 2015. Coupling global models for hydrology and nutrient loading to simulate nitrogen and phosphorus retention in surface water - description of the IMAGE-GNM and analysis of performance. Geosci. Model Dev. 8, 4045-4067

  10. Global Analysis of a Model of Viral Infection with Latent Stage and Two Types of Target Cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuo Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available By introducing the probability function describing latency of infected cells, we unify some models of viral infection with latent stage. For the case that the probability function is a step function, which implies that the latency period of the infected cells is constant, the corresponding model is a delay differential system. The model with delay of latency and two types of target cells is investigated, and the obtained results show that when the basic reproduction number is less than or equal to unity, the infection-free equilibrium is globally stable, that is, the in-host free virus will be cleared out finally; when the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, the infection equilibrium is globally stable, that is, the viral infection will be chronic and persist in-host. And by comparing the basic reproduction numbers of ordinary differential system and the associated delayed differential system, we think that it is necessary to elect an appropriate type of probability function for predicting the final outcome of viral infection in-host.

  11. Integrated modelling of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change on the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaldach, R.; Koch, J.; Alcamo, J.

    2009-04-01

    In many cases land-use activities go hand in hand with substantial modifications of the physical and biological cover of the Earth's surface, resulting in direct effects on energy and matter fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. For instance, the conversion of forest to cropland is changing climate relevant surface parameters (e.g. albedo) as well as evapotranspiration processes and carbon flows. In turn, human land-use decisions are also influenced by environmental processes. Changing temperature and precipitation patterns for example are important determinants for location and intensity of agriculture. Due to these close linkages, processes of land-use and related land-cover change should be considered as important components in the construction of Earth System models. A major challenge in modelling land-use change on the global scale is the integration of socio-economic aspects and human decision making with environmental processes. One of the few global approaches that integrates functional components to represent both anthropogenic and environmental aspects of land-use change, is the LandSHIFT model. It simulates the spatial and temporal dynamics of the human land-use activities settlement, cultivation of food crops and grazing management, which compete for the available land resources. The rational of the model is to regionalize the demands for area intensive commodities (e.g. crop production) and services (e.g. space for housing) from the country-level to a global grid with the spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. The modelled land-use decisions within the agricultural sector are influenced by changing climate and the resulting effects on biomass productivity. Currently, this causal chain is modelled by integrating results from the process-based vegetation model LPJmL model for changing crop yields and net primary productivity of grazing land. Model output of LandSHIFT is a time series of grid maps with land-use/land-cover information

  12. Dynamics of a delayed business cycle model with general investment function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riad, Driss; Hattaf, Khalid; Yousfi, Noura

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A delayed business cycle model is formulated and rigorously analyzed. • Well-posedness of the model and local stability of the economic equilibrium are determined. • Direction and stability of the Hopf bifurcation are investigated. • Global existence of bifurcating periodic solutions is established. • Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate our theoretical results. - Abstract: The aim of this paper is to study the dynamics of a delayed business cycle model with general investment function. The model describes the interaction of the gross product and capital stock. Furthermore, the delay represents the time between the decision of investment and implementation. Firstly, we show that the model is well posed by proving the global existence and boundedness of solutions. Secondly, we determine the economic equilibrium of the model. By analyzing the characteristic equation, we investigate the stability of the economic equilibrium and the local existence of Hopf bifurcation. Also, the direction of the Hopf bifurcation and the stability of the bifurcating periodic solutions are derived by applying the normal form method and center manifold theory. Moreover, the global existence of bifurcating periodic solutions is established by using the global Hopf bifurcation theory. Finally, our theoretical results are illustrated with some numerical simulations.

  13. Constraints on global oceanic emissions of N2O from observations and models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Suntharalingam, Parvadha; Le Quéré, Corinne

    2018-04-01

    We estimate the global ocean N2O flux to the atmosphere and its confidence interval using a statistical method based on model perturbation simulations and their fit to a database of ΔpN2O (n = 6136). We evaluate two submodels of N2O production. The first submodel splits N2O production into oxic and hypoxic pathways following previous publications. The second submodel explicitly represents the redox transformations of N that lead to N2O production (nitrification and hypoxic denitrification) and N2O consumption (suboxic denitrification), and is presented here for the first time. We perturb both submodels by modifying the key parameters of the N2O cycling pathways (nitrification rates; NH4+ uptake; N2O yields under oxic, hypoxic and suboxic conditions) and determine a set of optimal model parameters by minimisation of a cost function against four databases of N cycle observations. Our estimate of the global oceanic N2O flux resulting from this cost function minimisation derived from observed and model ΔpN2O concentrations is 2.4 ± 0.8 and 2.5 ± 0.8 Tg N yr-1 for the two N2O submodels. These estimates suggest that the currently available observational data of surface ΔpN2O constrain the global N2O flux to a narrower range relative to the large range of results presented in the latest IPCC report.

  14. Modelling water use in global hydrological models: review, challenges and directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bierkens, M. F.; de Graaf, I.; Wada, Y.; Wanders, N.; Van Beek, L. P.

    2017-12-01

    During the late 1980s and early 1990s, awareness of the shortage of global water resources lead to the first detailed global water resources assessments using regional statistics of water use and observations of meteorological and hydrological variables. Shortly thereafter, the first macroscale hydrological models (MHM) appeared. In these models, blue water (i.e., surface water and renewable groundwater) availability was calculated by accumulating runoff over a stream network and comparing it with population densities or with estimated water demand for agriculture, industry and households. In this talk we review the evolution of human impact modelling in global land models with a focus on global water resources, touching upon developments of the last 15 years: i.e. calculating human water scarcity; estimating groundwater depletion; adding dams and reservoirs; fully integrating water use (demand, withdrawal, consumption, return flow) in the hydrology; simulating the effects of land use change. We show example studies for each of these steps. We identify We identify major challenges that hamper the further development of integrated water resources modelling. Examples of these are: 1) simulating reservoir operations; 2) including local infrastructure and redistribution; 3) using the correct allocations rules; 4) projecting future water demand and water use. For each of these challenges we signify promising directions for further research.

  15. Global-scale high-resolution ( 1 km) modelling of mean, maximum and minimum annual streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbarossa, Valerio; Huijbregts, Mark; Hendriks, Jan; Beusen, Arthur; Clavreul, Julie; King, Henry; Schipper, Aafke

    2017-04-01

    Quantifying mean, maximum and minimum annual flow (AF) of rivers at ungauged sites is essential for a number of applications, including assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. AF metrics can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict AF metrics based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, so far, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. We developed global-scale regression models that quantify mean, maximum and minimum AF as function of catchment area and catchment-averaged slope, elevation, and mean, maximum and minimum annual precipitation and air temperature. We then used these models to obtain global 30 arc-seconds (˜ 1 km) maps of mean, maximum and minimum AF for each year from 1960 through 2015, based on a newly developed hydrologically conditioned digital elevation model. We calibrated our regression models based on observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from about 4,000 catchments worldwide, ranging from 100 to 106 km2 in size, and validated them against independent measurements as well as the output of a number of process-based global hydrological models (GHMs). The variance explained by our regression models ranged up to 90% and the performance of the models compared well with the performance of existing GHMs. Yet, our AF maps provide a level of spatial detail that cannot yet be achieved by current GHMs.

  16. Future of Plant Functional Types in Terrestrial Biosphere Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wullschleger, S. D.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Iversen, C. M.; Rogers, A.; Serbin, S.

    2015-12-01

    Earth system models describe the physical, chemical, and biological processes that govern our global climate. While it is difficult to single out one component as being more important than another in these sophisticated models, terrestrial vegetation is a critical player in the biogeochemical and biophysical dynamics of the Earth system. There is much debate, however, as to how plant diversity and function should be represented in these models. Plant functional types (PFTs) have been adopted by modelers to represent broad groupings of plant species that share similar characteristics (e.g. growth form) and roles (e.g. photosynthetic pathway) in ecosystem function. In this review the PFT concept is traced from its origin in the early 1800s to its current use in regional and global dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). Special attention is given to the representation and parameterization of PFTs and to validation and benchmarking of predicted patterns of vegetation distribution in high-latitude ecosystems. These ecosystems are sensitive to changing climate and thus provide a useful test case for model-based simulations of past, current, and future distribution of vegetation. Models that incorporate the PFT concept predict many of the emerging patterns of vegetation change in tundra and boreal forests, given known processes of tree mortality, treeline migration, and shrub expansion. However, representation of above- and especially belowground traits for specific PFTs continues to be problematic. Potential solutions include developing trait databases and replacing fixed parameters for PFTs with formulations based on trait co-variance and empirical trait-environment relationships. Surprisingly, despite being important to land-atmosphere interactions of carbon, water, and energy, PFTs such as moss and lichen are largely absent from DVMs. Close collaboration among those involved in modelling with the disciplines of taxonomy, biogeography, ecology, and remote sensing will be

  17. Probabilistic models for neural populations that naturally capture global coupling and criticality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humplik, Jan; Tkačik, Gašper

    2017-09-01

    Advances in multi-unit recordings pave the way for statistical modeling of activity patterns in large neural populations. Recent studies have shown that the summed activity of all neurons strongly shapes the population response. A separate recent finding has been that neural populations also exhibit criticality, an anomalously large dynamic range for the probabilities of different population activity patterns. Motivated by these two observations, we introduce a class of probabilistic models which takes into account the prior knowledge that the neural population could be globally coupled and close to critical. These models consist of an energy function which parametrizes interactions between small groups of neurons, and an arbitrary positive, strictly increasing, and twice differentiable function which maps the energy of a population pattern to its probability. We show that: 1) augmenting a pairwise Ising model with a nonlinearity yields an accurate description of the activity of retinal ganglion cells which outperforms previous models based on the summed activity of neurons; 2) prior knowledge that the population is critical translates to prior expectations about the shape of the nonlinearity; 3) the nonlinearity admits an interpretation in terms of a continuous latent variable globally coupling the system whose distribution we can infer from data. Our method is independent of the underlying system's state space; hence, it can be applied to other systems such as natural scenes or amino acid sequences of proteins which are also known to exhibit criticality.

  18. Modeling of global horizontal irradiance in the United Arab Emirates with artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hejase, Hassan A.N.; Al-Shamisi, Maitha H.; Assi, Ali H.

    2014-01-01

    This paper employs ANN (Artificial Neural Network) models to estimate GHI (global horizontal irradiance) for three major cities in the UAE (United Arab Emirates), namely Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Al-Ain. City data are then used to develop a comprehensive global GHI model for other nearby locations in the UAE. The ANN models use MLP (Multi-Layer Perceptron) and RBF (Radial Basis Function) techniques with comprehensive training algorithms, architectures, and different combinations of inputs. The UAE models are tested and validated against individual city models and data available from the UAE Solar Atlas with good agreement as attested by the computed statistical error parameters. The optimal ANN model is MLP-based and requires four mean daily weather parameters; namely, maximum temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours, and relative humidity. The computed statistical error parameters for the optimal MLP-ANN model in relation to the measured three-cities mean data (referred to as UAE data) are MBE (mean bias error) = −0.0003 kWh/m 2 , RMSE = 0.179 kWh/m 2 , R 2  = 99%, NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe model Efficiency coefficient) = 99%, and t-statistic = 0.005 at 5% significance level. Results prove the suitability of the ANN models for estimating the monthly mean daily GHI in different locations of the UAE. - Highlights: • ANN prediction models for the GHI (global horizontal irradiance) in the UAE. • Models used to estimate the potential of global solar radiation for UAE cities. • Data from the UAE Solar Atlas are used to validate developed ANN models. • ANN models are more efficient than regression models in predicting GHI

  19. A model for global cycling of tritium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Killough, G.G.; Kocher, D.C.

    1988-01-01

    Dynamic compartment models are widely used to describe global cycling of radionuclides for purposes of dose estimation. In this paper the authors present a new global tritium model that reproduces environmental time-series data on concentrations in precipitation, ocean surface waters, and surface fresh waters in the northern hemisphere, concentrations of atmospheric tritium in the southern hemisphere, and the latitude dependence of tritium in both hemispheres. Names TRICYCLE (for TRItium CYCLE) the model is based on the global hydrologic cycle and includes hemispheric stratospheric compartments, disaggregation of the troposphere and ocean surface waters into eight latitude zones, consideration of the different concentrations of atmospheric tritium over land and over the ocean, and a diffusive model for transport in the ocean. TRICYCLE reproduces the environmental data if it is assumed that about 50% of the tritium from atmospheric weapons testing was injected directly into the northern stratosphere as HTO. The model's latitudinal disaggregation permits taking into account the distribution of population. For a uniformly distributed release of HTO into the worldwide troposphere, TRICYCLE predicts a collective dose commitment to the world population that exceeds the NCRP model's corresponding prediction by a factor of three

  20. A model for global cycling of tritium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Killough, G.G.; Kocher, D.C.

    1988-01-01

    Dynamic compartment models are widely used to describe global cycling of radionuclides for purposes of dose estimation. In this paper, we present a new global tritium model that reproduces environmental time-series data on concentrations in precipitation, ocean surface waters, and surface fresh waters in the northern hemisphere, concentrations of atmospheric tritium in the soutehrn hemisphere, and the latitude dependence of tritium in both hemispheres. Named TRICYCLE for Tritium CYCLE, the model is based on the global hydrologic cycle and includes hemisphereic stratospheric compartments, disaggregation of the troposphere and ocean surface waters into eight latitudezones, consideration of the different concentrations of atmospheric tritium over land and over the ocean, and a diffusive model for transport in the ocean. TRICYCLE reproduces the environmental data if we assume that about 50% of the tritium from atmospheric weapons testing was injected directly into the northern stratosphere as HTO. The models latitudinal disaggregation permits taking into account the distribution of population. For a unfiormaly distributed release of HTO into the worldwide troposphere, TRICYCLE predicts a collective dose commitment to the world population that exceeds the corresponding prediction by the NCRP model by about a factor of 3. 11 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  1. Global modelling of Cryptosporidium in surface water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeulen, Lucie; Hofstra, Nynke

    2016-04-01

    Introduction Waterborne pathogens that cause diarrhoea, such as Cryptosporidium, pose a health risk all over the world. In many regions quantitative information on pathogens in surface water is unavailable. Our main objective is to model Cryptosporidium concentrations in surface waters worldwide. We present the GloWPa-Crypto model and use the model in a scenario analysis. A first exploration of global Cryptosporidium emissions to surface waters has been published by Hofstra et al. (2013). Further work has focused on modelling emissions of Cryptosporidium and Rotavirus to surface waters from human sources (Vermeulen et al 2015, Kiulia et al 2015). A global waterborne pathogen model can provide valuable insights by (1) providing quantitative information on pathogen levels in data-sparse regions, (2) identifying pathogen hotspots, (3) enabling future projections under global change scenarios and (4) supporting decision making. Material and Methods GloWPa-Crypto runs on a monthly time step and represents conditions for approximately the year 2010. The spatial resolution is a 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude x longitude grid for the world. We use livestock maps (http://livestock.geo-wiki.org/) combined with literature estimates to calculate spatially explicit livestock Cryptosporidium emissions. For human Cryptosporidium emissions, we use UN population estimates, the WHO/UNICEF JMP sanitation country data and literature estimates of wastewater treatment. We combine our emissions model with a river routing model and data from the VIC hydrological model (http://vic.readthedocs.org/en/master/) to calculate concentrations in surface water. Cryptosporidium survival during transport depends on UV radiation and water temperature. We explore pathogen emissions and concentrations in 2050 with the new Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) 1 and 3. These scenarios describe plausible future trends in demographics, economic development and the degree of global integration. Results and

  2. Global existence for Volterra-Fredholm type neutral impulsive functional integrodifferential equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Vijayakumar

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available n this paper, we study the global existence of solutions for the initial value problems for Volterra-Fredholm type neutral impulsive functional integrodifferential equations. Using the Leray-Schauder's Alternative theorem, we derive conditions under which a solution exists globally. An application is provided to illustrate the theory.

  3. Stochastic identification of temperature effects on the dynamics of a smart composite beam: assessment of multi-model and global model approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hios, J D; Fassois, S D

    2009-01-01

    The temperature effects on the dynamics of a smart composite beam are experimentally studied via conventional multi-model and novel global model identification approaches. The multi-model approaches are based on non-parametric and parametric VARX representations, whereas the global model approaches are based on novel constant coefficient pooled (CCP) and functionally pooled (FP) VARX parametric representations. The analysis indicates that the obtained multi-model and global model representations are in rough overall agreement. Nevertheless, the latter simultaneously use all available data records offering more compact descriptions of the dynamics, improved numerical robustness and estimation accuracy, which is reflected in significantly reduced modal parameter uncertainties. Although the CCP-VARX representations provide only 'averaged' descriptions of the structural dynamics over temperature, their FP-VARX counterparts allow for the explicit, analytical modeling of temperature dependence exhibiting a 'smooth' deterministic dependence of the dynamics on temperature which is compatible with the physics of the problem. In accordance with previous studies, the obtained natural frequencies decrease with temperature in a weakly nonlinear or approximately linear fashion. The damping factors are less affected, although their dependence on temperature may be of a potentially more complex nature

  4. Groundwater development stress: Global-scale indices compared to regional modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alley, William; Clark, Brian R.; Ely, Matt; Faunt, Claudia

    2018-01-01

    The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.

  5. The CAFE model: A net production model for global ocean phytoplankton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silsbe, Greg M.; Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Halsey, Kimberly H.; Milligan, Allen J.; Westberry, Toby K.

    2016-12-01

    The Carbon, Absorption, and Fluorescence Euphotic-resolving (CAFE) net primary production model is an adaptable framework for advancing global ocean productivity assessments by exploiting state-of-the-art satellite ocean color analyses and addressing key physiological and ecological attributes of phytoplankton. Here we present the first implementation of the CAFE model that incorporates inherent optical properties derived from ocean color measurements into a mechanistic and accurate model of phytoplankton growth rates (μ) and net phytoplankton production (NPP). The CAFE model calculates NPP as the product of energy absorption (QPAR), and the efficiency (ϕμ) by which absorbed energy is converted into carbon biomass (CPhyto), while μ is calculated as NPP normalized to CPhyto. The CAFE model performance is evaluated alongside 21 other NPP models against a spatially robust and globally representative set of direct NPP measurements. This analysis demonstrates that the CAFE model explains the greatest amount of variance and has the lowest model bias relative to other NPP models analyzed with this data set. Global oceanic NPP from the CAFE model (52 Pg C m-2 yr-1) and mean division rates (0.34 day-1) are derived from climatological satellite data (2002-2014). This manuscript discusses and validates individual CAFE model parameters (e.g., QPAR and ϕμ), provides detailed sensitivity analyses, and compares the CAFE model results and parameterization to other widely cited models.

  6. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  7. GEM-AQ/EC, an on-line global multi-scale chemical weather modelling system: model development and evaluation of global aerosol climatology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. L. Gong

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available A global air quality modeling system GEM-AQ/EC was developed by implementing tropospheric chemistry and aerosol processes on-line into the Global Environmental Multiscale weather prediction model – GEM. Due to the multi-scale features of the GEM, the integrated model, GEM-AQ/EC, is able to investigate chemical weather at scales from global to urban domains. The current chemical mechanism is comprised of 50 gas-phase species, 116 chemical and 19 photolysis reactions, and is complemented by a sectional aerosol module CAM (The Canadian Aerosol Module with 5 aerosols types: sulphate, black carbon, organic carbon, sea-salt and soil dust. Monthly emission inventories of black carbon and organic carbon from boreal and temperate vegetation fires were assembled using the most reliable areas burned datasets by countries, from statistical databases and derived from remote sensing products of 1995–2004. The model was run for ten years from from 1995–2004 with re-analyzed meteorology on a global uniform 1° × 1° horizontal resolution domain and 28 hybrid levels extending up to 10 hPa. The simulating results were compared with various observations including surface network around the globe and satellite data. Regional features of global aerosols are reasonably captured including emission, surface concentrations and aerosol optical depth. For various types of aerosols, satisfactory correlations were achieved between modeled and observed with some degree of systematic bias possibly due to large uncertainties in the emissions used in this study. A global distribution of natural aerosol contributions to the total aerosols is obtained and compared with observations.

  8. Evaluation of different models to estimate the global solar radiation on inclined surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demain, C.; Journée, M.; Bertrand, C.

    2012-04-01

    Global and diffuse solar radiation intensities are, in general, measured on horizontal surfaces, whereas stationary solar conversion systems (both flat plate solar collector and solar photovoltaic) are mounted on inclined surface to maximize the amount of solar radiation incident on the collector surface. Consequently, the solar radiation incident measured on a tilted surface has to be determined by converting solar radiation from horizontal surface to tilted surface of interest. This study evaluates the performance of 14 models transposing 10 minutes, hourly and daily diffuse solar irradiation from horizontal to inclined surface. Solar radiation data from 8 months (April to November 2011) which include diverse atmospheric conditions and solar altitudes, measured on the roof of the radiation tower of the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium in Uccle (Longitude 4.35°, Latitude 50.79°) were used for validation purposes. The individual model performance is assessed by an inter-comparison between the calculated and measured solar global radiation on the south-oriented surface tilted at 50.79° using statistical methods. The relative performance of the different models under different sky conditions has been studied. Comparison of the statistical errors between the different radiation models in function of the clearness index shows that some models perform better under one type of sky condition. Putting together different models acting under different sky conditions can lead to a diminution of the statistical error between global measured solar radiation and global estimated solar radiation. As models described in this paper have been developed for hourly data inputs, statistical error indexes are minimum for hourly data and increase for 10 minutes and one day frequency data.

  9. A high-resolution global-scale groundwater model

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Graaf, I. E. M.; Sutanudjaja, E. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2015-02-01

    Groundwater is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water. It plays a vital role in satisfying basic needs for drinking water, agriculture and industrial activities. During times of drought groundwater sustains baseflow to rivers and wetlands, thereby supporting ecosystems. Most global-scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, mainly due to lack of geohydrological data at the global scale. For the simulation of lateral flow and groundwater head dynamics, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system is needed, especially for GHMs that run at finer resolutions. In this study we present a global-scale groundwater model (run at 6' resolution) using MODFLOW to construct an equilibrium water table at its natural state as the result of long-term climatic forcing. The used aquifer schematization and properties are based on available global data sets of lithology and transmissivities combined with the estimated thickness of an upper, unconfined aquifer. This model is forced with outputs from the land-surface PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) model, specifically net recharge and surface water levels. A sensitivity analysis, in which the model was run with various parameter settings, showed that variation in saturated conductivity has the largest impact on the groundwater levels simulated. Validation with observed groundwater heads showed that groundwater heads are reasonably well simulated for many regions of the world, especially for sediment basins (R2 = 0.95). The simulated regional-scale groundwater patterns and flow paths demonstrate the relevance of lateral groundwater flow in GHMs. Inter-basin groundwater flows can be a significant part of a basin's water budget and help to sustain river baseflows, especially during droughts. Also, water availability of larger aquifer systems can be positively affected by additional recharge from inter-basin groundwater flows.

  10. A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.

    2012-01-01

    Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

  11. Abnormal functional global and local brain connectivity in female patients with anorexia nervosa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geisler, Daniel; Borchardt, Viola; Lord, Anton R.; Boehm, Ilka; Ritschel, Franziska; Zwipp, Johannes; Clas, Sabine; King, Joseph A.; Wolff-Stephan, Silvia; Roessner, Veit; Walter, Martin; Ehrlich, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    Background Previous resting-state functional connectivity studies in patients with anorexia nervosa used independent component analysis or seed-based connectivity analysis to probe specific brain networks. Instead, modelling the entire brain as a complex network allows determination of graph-theoretical metrics, which describe global and local properties of how brain networks are organized and how they interact. Methods To determine differences in network properties between female patients with acute anorexia nervosa and pairwise matched healthy controls, we used resting-state fMRI and computed well-established global and local graph metrics across a range of network densities. Results Our analyses included 35 patients and 35 controls. We found that the global functional network structure in patients with anorexia nervosa is characterized by increases in both characteristic path length (longer average routes between nodes) and assortativity (more nodes with a similar connectedness link together). Accordingly, we found locally decreased connectivity strength and increased path length in the posterior insula and thalamus. Limitations The present results may be limited to the methods applied during preprocessing and network construction. Conclusion We demonstrated anorexia nervosa–related changes in the network configuration for, to our knowledge, the first time using resting-state fMRI and graph-theoretical measures. Our findings revealed an altered global brain network architecture accompanied by local degradations indicating wide-scale disturbance in information flow across brain networks in patients with acute anorexia nervosa. Reduced local network efficiency in the thalamus and posterior insula may reflect a mechanism that helps explain the impaired integration of visuospatial and homeostatic signals in patients with this disorder, which is thought to be linked to abnormal representations of body size and hunger. PMID:26252451

  12. A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Heinke

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

  13. Global dynamics of a dengue epidemic mathematical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai Liming; Guo Shumin; Li, XueZhi; Ghosh, Mini

    2009-01-01

    The paper investigates the global stability of a dengue epidemic model with saturation and bilinear incidence. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The stability of these two equilibria is controlled by the threshold number R 0 . It is shown that if R 0 is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R 0 is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.

  14. Global phenomenological optical model potential for nucleon-actinide reactions at energies up to 300 MeV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han Yinlu; Liang Haiying; Guo Hairui; Shen Qingbiao; Xu Yongli

    2010-01-01

    A set of new global phenomenological optical model potential parameters for the actinide region with incident nucleon energies from 1 keV up to 300 MeV is obtained. They are based on a smooth, unique functional form for the energy dependence of the potential depths and on physically constrained geometry parameters. The available experimental data including the neutron total cross sections, nonelastic cross sections, elastic scattering cross sections, elastic scattering angular distributions, and proton reaction cross sections and elastic scattering angular distributions of 232 Th and 238 U are used. The new nucleon global optical model potential parameters obtained are analyzed and used to analyze the experimental data of nucleon-actinide reactions. It is found that the present form of the global optical model potential could reproduce both the neutron and the proton experimental data.

  15. CT14 intrinsic charm parton distribution functions from CTEQ-TEA global analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Tie-Jiun; Dulat, Sayipjamal; Gao, Jun; Guzzi, Marco; Huston, Joey; Nadolsky, Pavel; Schmidt, Carl; Winter, Jan; Xie, Keping; Yuan, C.-P.

    2018-02-01

    We investigate the possibility of a (sizable) nonperturbative contribution to the charm parton distribution function (PDF) in a nucleon, theoretical issues arising in its interpretation, and its potential impact on LHC scattering processes. The "fitted charm" PDF obtained in various QCD analyses contains a process-dependent component that is partly traced to power-suppressed radiative contributions in DIS and is generally different at the LHC. We discuss separation of the universal component of the nonperturbative charm from the rest of the radiative contributions and estimate its magnitude in the CT14 global QCD analysis at the next-to-next-to leading order in the QCD coupling strength, including the latest experimental data from HERA and the Large Hadron Collider. Models for the nonperturbative charm PDF are examined as a function of the charm quark mass and other parameters. The prospects for testing these models in the associated production of a Z boson and a charm jet at the LHC are studied under realistic assumptions, including effects of the final-state parton showering.

  16. Global existence and asymptotic behavior of a model for biological control of invasive species via supermale introduction

    KAUST Repository

    Parshad, Rana

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this manuscript is to propose a model for the biological control of invasive species, via introduction of phenotypically modified organisms into a target population. We are inspired by the earlier Trojan Y Chromosome model [J.B. Gutierrez, J.L. Teem, J. Theo. Bio., 241(22), 333-341, 2006]. However, in the current work, we remove the assumption of logisticgrowth rate, and do not consider the addition of sex-reversed supermales. Also the constant birth and death coefficients, considered earlier, are replaced by functionally dependent ones. In this case the nonlinearities present serious difficulties since they change sign, and the components of the solution are not a priori bounded, in some Lp-space for p large, to permit theapplication of the well known regularizing effect principle. Thus functional methods to deducethe global existence in time, for the system in question, are not applicable. Our techniques are based on the Lyapunov functional method. We prove global existence of solutions, as well asexistence of a finite dimensional global attractor, that supports states of extinction. Our analytical finding are in accordance with numerical simulations, which we also present. © 2013 International Press.

  17. A GLOBAL SOLUTION TO TOPOLOGICAL RECONSTRUCTION OF BUILDING ROOF MODELS FROM AIRBORNE LIDAR POINT CLOUDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Yan

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a global solution to building roof topological reconstruction from LiDAR point clouds. Starting with segmented roof planes from building LiDAR points, a BSP (binary space partitioning algorithm is used to partition the bounding box of the building into volumetric cells, whose geometric features and their topology are simultaneously determined. To resolve the inside/outside labelling problem of cells, a global energy function considering surface visibility and spatial regularization between adjacent cells is constructed and minimized via graph cuts. As a result, the cells are labelled as either inside or outside, where the planar surfaces between the inside and outside form the reconstructed building model. Two LiDAR data sets of Yangjiang (China and Wuhan University (China are used in the study. Experimental results show that the completeness of reconstructed roof planes is 87.5%. Comparing with existing data-driven approaches, the proposed approach is global. Roof faces and edges as well as their topology can be determined at one time via minimization of an energy function. Besides, this approach is robust to partial absence of roof planes and tends to reconstruct roof models with visibility-consistent surfaces.

  18. Constraints on global oceanic emissions of N2O from observations and models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. T. Buitenhuis

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available We estimate the global ocean N2O flux to the atmosphere and its confidence interval using a statistical method based on model perturbation simulations and their fit to a database of ΔpN2O (n =  6136. We evaluate two submodels of N2O production. The first submodel splits N2O production into oxic and hypoxic pathways following previous publications. The second submodel explicitly represents the redox transformations of N that lead to N2O production (nitrification and hypoxic denitrification and N2O consumption (suboxic denitrification, and is presented here for the first time. We perturb both submodels by modifying the key parameters of the N2O cycling pathways (nitrification rates; NH4+ uptake; N2O yields under oxic, hypoxic and suboxic conditions and determine a set of optimal model parameters by minimisation of a cost function against four databases of N cycle observations. Our estimate of the global oceanic N2O flux resulting from this cost function minimisation derived from observed and model ΔpN2O concentrations is 2.4 ± 0.8 and 2.5 ± 0.8 Tg N yr−1 for the two N2O submodels. These estimates suggest that the currently available observational data of surface ΔpN2O constrain the global N2O flux to a narrower range relative to the large range of results presented in the latest IPCC report.

  19. An Instructional Development Model for Global Organizations: The GOaL Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hara, Noriko; Schwen, Thomas M.

    1999-01-01

    Presents an instructional development model, GOaL (Global Organization Localization), for use by global organizations. Topics include gaps in language, culture, and needs; decentralized processes; collaborative efforts; predetermined content; multiple perspectives; needs negotiation; learning within context; just-in-time training; and bilingual…

  20. Qualitative models of global warming amplifiers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milošević, U.; Bredeweg, B.; de Kleer, J.; Forbus, K.D.

    2010-01-01

    There is growing interest from ecological experts to create qualitative models of phenomena for which numerical information is sparse or missing. We present a number of successful models in the field of environmental science, namely, the domain of global warming. The motivation behind the effort is

  1. Global dynamics of a dengue epidemic mathematical model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cai Liming [Department of Mathematics, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000 (China); Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Academia Sinica, Beijing 100080 (China)], E-mail: lmcai06@yahoo.com.cn; Guo Shumin [Beijing Institute of Information Control, Beijing 100037 (China); Li, XueZhi [Department of Mathematics, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000 (China); Ghosh, Mini [School of Mathematics and Computer Application, Thapar University, Patiala 147004 (India)

    2009-11-30

    The paper investigates the global stability of a dengue epidemic model with saturation and bilinear incidence. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The stability of these two equilibria is controlled by the threshold number R{sub 0}. It is shown that if R{sub 0} is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R{sub 0} is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.

  2. Confronting species distribution model predictions with species functional traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittmann, Marion E; Barnes, Matthew A; Jerde, Christopher L; Jones, Lisa A; Lodge, David M

    2016-02-01

    Species distribution models are valuable tools in studies of biogeography, ecology, and climate change and have been used to inform conservation and ecosystem management. However, species distribution models typically incorporate only climatic variables and species presence data. Model development or validation rarely considers functional components of species traits or other types of biological data. We implemented a species distribution model (Maxent) to predict global climate habitat suitability for Grass Carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella). We then tested the relationship between the degree of climate habitat suitability predicted by Maxent and the individual growth rates of both wild (N = 17) and stocked (N = 51) Grass Carp populations using correlation analysis. The Grass Carp Maxent model accurately reflected the global occurrence data (AUC = 0.904). Observations of Grass Carp growth rate covered six continents and ranged from 0.19 to 20.1 g day(-1). Species distribution model predictions were correlated (r = 0.5, 95% CI (0.03, 0.79)) with observed growth rates for wild Grass Carp populations but were not correlated (r = -0.26, 95% CI (-0.5, 0.012)) with stocked populations. Further, a review of the literature indicates that the few studies for other species that have previously assessed the relationship between the degree of predicted climate habitat suitability and species functional traits have also discovered significant relationships. Thus, species distribution models may provide inferences beyond just where a species may occur, providing a useful tool to understand the linkage between species distributions and underlying biological mechanisms.

  3. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    The scope of the report is to present the results of the fourth year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  4. Modeling the biophysical impacts of global change in mountain biosphere reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bugmann, H.K.M.; Bjornsen, F. Ewert; Haeberli, W.; Guisan, Antoine; Fagre, Daniel B.; Kaab, A.

    2007-01-01

    Mountains and mountain societies provide a wide range of goods and services to humanity, but they are particularly sensitive to the effects of global environmental change. Thus, the definition of appropriate management regimes that maintain the multiple functions of mountain regions in a time of greatly changing climatic, economic, and societal drivers constitutes a significant challenge. Management decisions must be based on a sound understanding of the future dynamics of these systems. The present article reviews the elements required for an integrated effort to project the impacts of global change on mountain regions, and recommends tools that can be used at 3 scientific levels (essential, improved, and optimum). The proposed strategy is evaluated with respect to UNESCO's network of Mountain Biosphere Reserves (MBRs), with the intention of implementing it in other mountain regions as well. First, methods for generating scenarios of key drivers of global change are reviewed, including land use/land cover and climate change. This is followed by a brief review of the models available for projecting the impacts of these scenarios on (1) cryospheric systems, (2) ecosystem structure and diversity, and (3) ecosystem functions such as carbon and water relations. Finally, the cross-cutting role of remote sensing techniques is evaluated with respect to both monitoring and modeling efforts. We conclude that a broad range of techniques is available for both scenario generation and impact assessments, many of which can be implemented without much capacity building across many or even most MBRs. However, to foster implementation of the proposed strategy, further efforts are required to establish partnerships between scientists and resource managers in mountain areas.

  5. The Global Flood Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, P.; Huddelston, M.; Michel, G.; Thompson, S.; Heynert, K.; Pickering, C.; Abbott Donnelly, I.; Fewtrell, T.; Galy, H.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.; Weerts, A.; Nixon, S.; Davies, P.; Schiferli, D.

    2012-04-01

    Recently, a Global Flood Model (GFM) initiative has been proposed by Willis, UK Met Office, Esri, Deltares and IBM. The idea is to create a global community platform that enables better understanding of the complexities of flood risk assessment to better support the decisions, education and communication needed to mitigate flood risk. The GFM will provide tools for assessing the risk of floods, for devising mitigation strategies such as land-use changes and infrastructure improvements, and for enabling effective pre- and post-flood event response. The GFM combines humanitarian and commercial motives. It will benefit: - The public, seeking to preserve personal safety and property; - State and local governments, seeking to safeguard economic activity, and improve resilience; - NGOs, similarly seeking to respond proactively to flood events; - The insurance sector, seeking to understand and price flood risk; - Large corporations, seeking to protect global operations and supply chains. The GFM is an integrated and transparent set of modules, each composed of models and data. For each module, there are two core elements: a live "reference version" (a worked example) and a framework of specifications, which will allow development of alternative versions. In the future, users will be able to work with the reference version or substitute their own models and data. If these meet the specification for the relevant module, they will interoperate with the rest of the GFM. Some "crowd-sourced" modules could even be accredited and published to the wider GFM community. Our intent is to build on existing public, private and academic work, improve local adoption, and stimulate the development of multiple - but compatible - alternatives, so strengthening mankind's ability to manage flood impacts. The GFM is being developed and managed by a non-profit organization created for the purpose. The business model will be inspired from open source software (eg Linux): - for non-profit usage

  6. Global distribution of urban parameters derived from high-resolution global datasets for weather modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawano, N.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Dong, Y.; Kanda, M.

    2016-12-01

    Numerical model such as Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with single-layer Urban Canopy Model (WRF-UCM) is one of the powerful tools to investigate urban heat island. Urban parameters such as average building height (Have), plain area index (λp) and frontal area index (λf), are necessary inputs for the model. In general, these parameters are uniformly assumed in WRF-UCM but this leads to unrealistic urban representation. Distributed urban parameters can also be incorporated into WRF-UCM to consider a detail urban effect. The problem is that distributed building information is not readily available for most megacities especially in developing countries. Furthermore, acquiring real building parameters often require huge amount of time and money. In this study, we investigated the potential of using globally available satellite-captured datasets for the estimation of the parameters, Have, λp, and λf. Global datasets comprised of high spatial resolution population dataset (LandScan by Oak Ridge National Laboratory), nighttime lights (NOAA), and vegetation fraction (NASA). True samples of Have, λp, and λf were acquired from actual building footprints from satellite images and 3D building database of Tokyo, New York, Paris, Melbourne, Istanbul, Jakarta and so on. Regression equations were then derived from the block-averaging of spatial pairs of real parameters and global datasets. Results show that two regression curves to estimate Have and λf from the combination of population and nightlight are necessary depending on the city's level of development. An index which can be used to decide which equation to use for a city is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). On the other hand, λphas less dependence on GDP but indicated a negative relationship to vegetation fraction. Finally, a simplified but precise approximation of urban parameters through readily-available, high-resolution global datasets and our derived regressions can be utilized to estimate a

  7. Global Modeling Study of the Bioavailable Atmospheric Iron Supply to the Global Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myriokefalitakis, S.; Krol, M. C.; van Noije, T.; Le Sager, P.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric deposition of trace constituents acts as a nutrient source to the open ocean and affect marine ecosystem. Dust is known as a major source of nutrients to the global ocean, but only a fraction of these nutrients is released in a bioavailable form that can be assimilated by the marine biota. Iron (Fe) is a key micronutrient that significantly modulates gross primary production in the High-Nutrient-Low-Chlorophyll (HNLC) oceans, where macronutrients like nitrate are abundant, but primary production is limited by Fe scarcity. The global atmospheric Fe cycle is here parameterized in the state-of-the-art global Earth System Model EC-Earth. The model takes into account the primary emissions of both insoluble and soluble Fe forms, associated with mineral dust and combustion aerosols. The impact of atmospheric acidity and organic ligands on mineral dissolution processes, is parameterized based on updated experimental and theoretical findings. Model results are also evaluated against available observations. Overall, the link between the labile Fe atmospheric deposition and atmospheric composition changes is here demonstrated and quantified. This work has been financed by the Marie-Curie H2020-MSCA-IF-2015 grant (ID 705652) ODEON (Online DEposition over OceaNs; modeling the effect of air pollution on ocean bio-geochemistry in an Earth System Model).

  8. Calibration of an agricultural-hydrological model (RZWQM2) using surrogate global optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xi, Maolong; Lu, Dan; Gui, Dongwei; Qi, Zhiming; Zhang, Guannan

    2017-01-01

    Robust calibration of an agricultural-hydrological model is critical for simulating crop yield and water quality and making reasonable agricultural management. However, calibration of the agricultural-hydrological system models is challenging because of model complexity, the existence of strong parameter correlation, and significant computational requirements. Therefore, only a limited number of simulations can be allowed in any attempt to find a near-optimal solution within an affordable time, which greatly restricts the successful application of the model. The goal of this study is to locate the optimal solution of the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2) given a limited simulation time, so as to improve the model simulation and help make rational and effective agricultural-hydrological decisions. To this end, we propose a computationally efficient global optimization procedure using sparse-grid based surrogates. We first used advanced sparse grid (SG) interpolation to construct a surrogate system of the actual RZWQM2, and then we calibrate the surrogate model using the global optimization algorithm, Quantum-behaved Particle Swarm Optimization (QPSO). As the surrogate model is a polynomial with fast evaluation, it can be efficiently evaluated with a sufficiently large number of times during the optimization, which facilitates the global search. We calibrate seven model parameters against five years of yield, drain flow, and NO3-N loss data from a subsurface-drained corn-soybean field in Iowa. Results indicate that an accurate surrogate model can be created for the RZWQM2 with a relatively small number of SG points (i.e., RZWQM2 runs). Compared to the conventional QPSO algorithm, our surrogate-based optimization method can achieve a smaller objective function value and better calibration performance using a fewer number of expensive RZWQM2 executions, which greatly improves computational efficiency.

  9. Modeling global distribution of agricultural insecticides in surface waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ippolito, Alessio; Kattwinkel, Mira; Rasmussen, Jes J.; Schäfer, Ralf B.; Fornaroli, Riccardo; Liess, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    Agricultural insecticides constitute a major driver of animal biodiversity loss in freshwater ecosystems. However, the global extent of their effects and the spatial extent of exposure remain largely unknown. We applied a spatially explicit model to estimate the potential for agricultural insecticide runoff into streams. Water bodies within 40% of the global land surface were at risk of insecticide runoff. We separated the influence of natural factors and variables under human control determining insecticide runoff. In the northern hemisphere, insecticide runoff presented a latitudinal gradient mainly driven by insecticide application rate; in the southern hemisphere, a combination of daily rainfall intensity, terrain slope, agricultural intensity and insecticide application rate determined the process. The model predicted the upper limit of observed insecticide exposure measured in water bodies (n = 82) in five different countries reasonably well. The study provides a global map of hotspots for insecticide contamination guiding future freshwater management and conservation efforts. - Highlights: • First global map on insecticide runoff through modelling. • Model predicts upper limit of insecticide exposure when compared to field data. • Water bodies in 40% of global land surface may be at risk of adverse effects. • Insecticide application rate, terrain slope and rainfall main drivers of exposure. - We provide the first global map on insecticide runoff to surface water predicting that water bodies in 40% of global land surface may be at risk of adverse effects

  10. Using Intel's Knight Landing Processor to Accelerate Global Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (GNAQPMS) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, H.; Chen, H.; Chen, X.; Wu, Q.; Wang, Z.

    2016-12-01

    The Global Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System for Hg (GNAQPMS-Hg) is a global chemical transport model coupled Hg transport module to investigate the mercury pollution. In this study, we present our work of transplanting the GNAQPMS model on Intel Xeon Phi processor, Knights Landing (KNL) to accelerate the model. KNL is the second-generation product adopting Many Integrated Core Architecture (MIC) architecture. Compared with the first generation Knight Corner (KNC), KNL has more new hardware features, that it can be used as unique processor as well as coprocessor with other CPU. According to the Vtune tool, the high overhead modules in GNAQPMS model have been addressed, including CBMZ gas chemistry, advection and convection module, and wet deposition module. These high overhead modules were accelerated by optimizing code and using new techniques of KNL. The following optimized measures was done: 1) Changing the pure MPI parallel mode to hybrid parallel mode with MPI and OpenMP; 2.Vectorizing the code to using the 512-bit wide vector computation unit. 3. Reducing unnecessary memory access and calculation. 4. Reducing Thread Local Storage (TLS) for common variables with each OpenMP thread in CBMZ. 5. Changing the way of global communication from files writing and reading to MPI functions. After optimization, the performance of GNAQPMS is greatly increased both on CPU and KNL platform, the single-node test showed that optimized version has 2.6x speedup on two sockets CPU platform and 3.3x speedup on one socket KNL platform compared with the baseline version code, which means the KNL has 1.29x speedup when compared with 2 sockets CPU platform.

  11. Using satellite data to improve the leaf phenology of a global terrestrial biosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacBean, N.; Maignan, F.; Peylin, P.; Bacour, C.; Bréon, F.-M.; Ciais, P.

    2015-12-01

    Correct representation of seasonal leaf dynamics is crucial for terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), but many such models cannot accurately reproduce observations of leaf onset and senescence. Here we optimised the phenology-related parameters of the ORCHIDEE TBM using satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data (MODIS NDVI v5) that are linearly related to the model fAPAR. We found the misfit between the observations and the model decreased after optimisation for all boreal and temperate deciduous plant functional types, primarily due to an earlier onset of leaf senescence. The model bias was only partially reduced for tropical deciduous trees and no improvement was seen for natural C4 grasses. Spatial validation demonstrated the generality of the posterior parameters for use in global simulations, with an increase in global median correlation of 0.56 to 0.67. The simulated global mean annual gross primary productivity (GPP) decreased by ~ 10 PgC yr-1 over the 1990-2010 period due to the substantially shortened growing season length (GSL - by up to 30 days in the Northern Hemisphere), thus reducing the positive bias and improving the seasonal dynamics of ORCHIDEE compared to independent data-based estimates. Finally, the optimisations led to changes in the strength and location of the trends in the simulated vegetation productivity as represented by the GSL and mean annual fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR), suggesting care should be taken when using un-calibrated models in attribution studies. We suggest that the framework presented here can be applied for improving the phenology of all global TBMs.

  12. The role of plant functional trade-offs for biodiversity changes and biome shifts under scenarios of global climatic change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Reu

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The global geographic distribution of biodiversity and biomes is determined by species-specific physiological tolerances to climatic constraints. Current vegetation models employ empirical bioclimatic relationships to predict present-day vegetation patterns and to forecast biodiversity changes and biome shifts under climatic change. In this paper, we consider trade-offs in plant functioning and their responses under climatic changes to forecast and explain changes in plant functional richness and shifts in biome geographic distributions.

    The Jena Diversity model (JeDi simulates plant survival according to essential plant functional trade-offs, including ecophysiological processes such as water uptake, photosynthesis, allocation, reproduction and phenology. We use JeDi to quantify changes in plant functional richness and biome shifts between present-day and a range of possible future climates from two SRES emission scenarios (A2 and B1 and seven global climate models using metrics of plant functional richness and functional identity.

    Our results show (i a significant loss of plant functional richness in the tropics, (ii an increase in plant functional richness at mid and high latitudes, and (iii a pole-ward shift of biomes. While these results are consistent with the findings of empirical approaches, we are able to explain them in terms of the plant functional trade-offs involved in the allocation, metabolic and reproduction strategies of plants. We conclude that general aspects of plant physiological tolerances can be derived from functional trade-offs, which may provide a useful process- and trait-based alternative to bioclimatic relationships. Such a mechanistic approach may be particularly relevant when addressing vegetation responses to climatic changes that encounter novel combinations of climate parameters that do not exist under contemporary climate.

  13. Global and Regional Ecosystem Modeling: Databases of Model Drivers and Validation Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olson, R.J.

    2002-03-19

    Understanding global-scale ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions is important both as a scientific question and as the basis for making policy decisions. The confidence in regional models depends on how well the field data used to develop the model represent the region of interest, how well the environmental model driving variables (e.g., vegetation type, climate, and soils associated with a site used to parameterize ecosystem models) represent the region of interest, and how well regional model predictions agree with observed data for the region. To assess the accuracy of global model forecasts of terrestrial carbon cycling, two Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) workshops were held (December 1999 and April 2001). The workshops included 17 biogeochemical, satellite-driven, detailed process, and dynamic vegetation global model types. The approach was to run regional or global versions of the models for sites with net primary productivity (NPP) measurements (i.e., not fine-tuned for specific site conditions) and analyze the model-data differences. Extensive worldwide NPP data were assembled with model driver data, including vegetation, climate, and soils data, to perform the intercomparison. This report describes the compilation of NPP estimates for 2,523 sites and 5,164 0.5{sup o}-grid cells under the Global Primary Production Data Initiative (GPPDI) and the results of the EMDI review and outlier analysis that produced a refined set of NPP estimates and model driver data. The EMDI process resulted in 81 Class A sites, 933 Class B sites, and 3,855 Class C cells derived from the original synthesis of NPP measurements and associated driver data. Class A sites represent well-documented study sites that have complete aboveground and below ground NPP measurements. Class B sites represent more numerous ''extensive'' sites with less documentation and site-specific information available. Class C cells represent estimates of

  14. Reductions in soil surface albedo as a function of biochar application rate: implications for global radiative forcing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verheijen, Frank G A; Bastos, Ana Catarina; Keizer, Jan Jacob; Jeffery, Simon; Van der Velde, Marijn; Penížek, Vít; Beland, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Biochar can be defined as pyrolysed (charred) biomass produced for application to soils with the aim of mitigating global climate change while improving soil functions. Sustainable biochar application to soils has been estimated to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 71–130 Pg CO 2 -C e over 100 years, indicating an important potential to mitigate climate change. However, these estimates ignored changes in soil surface reflection by the application of dark-coloured biochar. Through a laboratory experiment we show a strong tendency for soil surface albedo to decrease as a power decay function with increasing biochar application rate, depending on soil moisture content, biochar application method and land use. Surface application of biochar resulted in strong reductions in soil surface albedo even at relatively low application rates. As a first assessment of the implications for climate change mitigation of these biochar–albedo relationships, we applied a first order global energy balance model to compare negative radiative forcings (from avoided CO 2 emissions) with positive radiative forcings (from reduced soil surface albedos). For a global-scale biochar application equivalent to 120 t ha −1 , we obtained reductions in negative radiative forcings of 5 and 11% for croplands and 11 and 23% for grasslands, when incorporating biochar into the topsoil or applying it to the soil surface, respectively. For a lower global biochar application rate (equivalent to 10 t ha −1 ), these reductions amounted to 13 and 44% for croplands and 28 and 94% for grasslands. Thus, our findings revealed the importance of including changes in soil surface albedo in studies assessing the net climate change mitigation potential of biochar, and we discuss the urgent need for field studies and more detailed spatiotemporal modelling. (letter)

  15. Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics

    KAUST Repository

    Jeong, Jaehong; Jun, Mikyoung; Genton, Marc G.

    2017-01-01

    Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture

  16. Uncertainty of Monetary Valued Ecosystem Services - Value Transfer Functions for Global Mapping.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Schmidt

    Full Text Available Growing demand of resources increases pressure on ecosystem services (ES and biodiversity. Monetary valuation of ES is frequently seen as a decision-support tool by providing explicit values for unconsidered, non-market goods and services. Here we present global value transfer functions by using a meta-analytic framework for the synthesis of 194 case studies capturing 839 monetary values of ES. For 12 ES the variance of monetary values could be explained with a subset of 93 study- and site-specific variables by utilizing boosted regression trees. This provides the first global quantification of uncertainties and transferability of monetary valuations. Models explain from 18% (water provision to 44% (food provision of variance and provide statistically reliable extrapolations for 70% (water provision to 91% (food provision of the terrestrial earth surface. Although the application of different valuation methods is a source of uncertainty, we found evidence that assuming homogeneity of ecosystems is a major error in value transfer function models. Food provision is positively correlated with better life domains and variables indicating positive conditions for human well-being. Water provision and recreation service show that weak ownerships affect valuation of other common goods negatively (e.g. non-privately owned forests. Furthermore, we found support for the shifting baseline hypothesis in valuing climate regulation. Ecological conditions and societal vulnerability determine valuation of extreme event prevention. Valuation of habitat services is negatively correlated with indicators characterizing less favorable areas. Our analysis represents a stepping stone to establish a standardized integration of and reporting on uncertainties for reliable and valid benefit transfer as an important component for decision support.

  17. Photosynthesis-dependent isoprene emission from leaf to planet in a global carbon-chemistry-climate model

    OpenAIRE

    Unger, N.; Harper, K.; Zheng, Y.; Kiang, N. Y.; Aleinov, I.; Arneth, A.; Schurgers, G.; Amelynyck, C.; Goldstein, A.; Guenther, A.; Heinesch, B.; Hewitt, C. N.; Karl, T.; Laffineur, Q.; Langford, B.

    2013-01-01

    We describe the implementation of a biochemical model of isoprene emission that depends on the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis into the Farquhar–Ball–Berry leaf model of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance that is embedded within a global chemistry-climate simulation framework. The isoprene production is calculated as a function of electron transport-limited photosynthesis, intercellular and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, and canopy temperature. Th...

  18. Focal Solute Trapping and Global Glymphatic Pathway Impairment in a Murine Model of Multiple Microinfarcts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Minghuan; Ding, Fengfei; Deng, SaiYue; Guo, Xuequn; Wang, Wei; Iliff, Jeffrey J; Nedergaard, Maiken

    2017-03-15

    Microinfarcts occur commonly in the aging brain as a consequence of diffuse embolic events and are associated with the development of vascular dementia and Alzheimer's disease. However, the manner in which disperse microscopic lesions reduce global cognitive function and increase the risk for Alzheimer's disease is unclear. The glymphatic system, which is a brain-wide perivascular network that supports the recirculation of CSF through the brain parenchyma, facilitates the clearance of interstitial solutes including amyloid β and tau. We investigated whether glymphatic pathway function is impaired in a murine model of multiple microinfarcts induced by intraarterial injection of cholesterol crystals. The analysis showed that multiple microinfarcts markedly impaired global influx of CSF along the glymphatic pathway. Although suppression of global glymphatic function was transient, resolving within 2 weeks of injury, CSF tracers also accumulated within tissue associated with microinfarcts. The effect of diffuse microinfarcts on global glymphatic pathway function was exacerbated in the mice aged 12 months compared with the 2- to 3-month-old mice. These findings indicate that glymphatic function is focally disrupted around microinfarcts and that the aging brain is more vulnerable to this disruption than the young brain. These observations suggest that microlesions may trap proteins and other interstitial solutes within the brain parenchyma, increasing the risk of amyloid plaque formation. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Microinfarcts, small (glymphatic system is a brain-wide network of channels surrounding brain blood vessels that allows CSF to exchange with interstitial fluid, clearing away cellular wastes such as amyloid β. We observed that, in mice, microinfarcts impaired global glymphatic function and solutes from the CSF became trapped in tissue associated with microinfarcts. These data suggest that small, disperse ischemic lesions can impair glymphatic function across the

  19. Challenges for modeling global gene regulatory networks during development: insights from Drosophila.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilczynski, Bartek; Furlong, Eileen E M

    2010-04-15

    Development is regulated by dynamic patterns of gene expression, which are orchestrated through the action of complex gene regulatory networks (GRNs). Substantial progress has been made in modeling transcriptional regulation in recent years, including qualitative "coarse-grain" models operating at the gene level to very "fine-grain" quantitative models operating at the biophysical "transcription factor-DNA level". Recent advances in genome-wide studies have revealed an enormous increase in the size and complexity or GRNs. Even relatively simple developmental processes can involve hundreds of regulatory molecules, with extensive interconnectivity and cooperative regulation. This leads to an explosion in the number of regulatory functions, effectively impeding Boolean-based qualitative modeling approaches. At the same time, the lack of information on the biophysical properties for the majority of transcription factors within a global network restricts quantitative approaches. In this review, we explore the current challenges in moving from modeling medium scale well-characterized networks to more poorly characterized global networks. We suggest to integrate coarse- and find-grain approaches to model gene regulatory networks in cis. We focus on two very well-studied examples from Drosophila, which likely represent typical developmental regulatory modules across metazoans. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. A coupled chemotaxis-fluid model: Global existence

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Jian-Guo; Lorz, Alexander

    2011-01-01

    We consider a model arising from biology, consisting of chemotaxis equations coupled to viscous incompressible fluid equations through transport and external forcing. Global existence of solutions to the Cauchy problem is investigated under certain conditions. Precisely, for the chemotaxis-Navier- Stokes system in two space dimensions, we obtain global existence for large data. In three space dimensions, we prove global existence of weak solutions for the chemotaxis-Stokes system with nonlinear diffusion for the cell density.© 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  1. A coupled chemotaxis-fluid model: Global existence

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Jian-Guo

    2011-09-01

    We consider a model arising from biology, consisting of chemotaxis equations coupled to viscous incompressible fluid equations through transport and external forcing. Global existence of solutions to the Cauchy problem is investigated under certain conditions. Precisely, for the chemotaxis-Navier- Stokes system in two space dimensions, we obtain global existence for large data. In three space dimensions, we prove global existence of weak solutions for the chemotaxis-Stokes system with nonlinear diffusion for the cell density.© 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  2. A branch and bound algorithm for the global optimization of Hessian Lipschitz continuous functions

    KAUST Repository

    Fowkes, Jaroslav M.

    2012-06-21

    We present a branch and bound algorithm for the global optimization of a twice differentiable nonconvex objective function with a Lipschitz continuous Hessian over a compact, convex set. The algorithm is based on applying cubic regularisation techniques to the objective function within an overlapping branch and bound algorithm for convex constrained global optimization. Unlike other branch and bound algorithms, lower bounds are obtained via nonconvex underestimators of the function. For a numerical example, we apply the proposed branch and bound algorithm to radial basis function approximations. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

  3. Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, FA

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available -mail: fengelbrecht@csir.co.za Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model FA Engelbrecht1, 2*, WA Landman1, 3, CJ Engelbrecht4, S Landman5, MM Bopape1, B Roux6, JL McGregor7 and M Thatcher7 1 CSIR Natural... improvement. Keywords: multi-scale climate modelling, variable-resolution atmospheric model Introduction Dynamic climate models have become the primary tools for the projection of future climate change, at both the global and regional scales. Dynamic...

  4. Global Carbon-and-Conservation Models, Global Eco-States? Ecuador’s Yasuní-ITT Initiative and Governance Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conny Davidsen

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The “global carbon age” marks a structural change far beyond the economic realms of implementing carbon trade, affecting the fabric of global environmental governance and its actors. Carbon trade and conservation in the Global South have taken on various forms, and climate change mitigation efforts in light of continued rainforest deforestation are scrambling to establish effective approaches. Ecuador’s Yasuní-ITT Initiative proposes a new global carbon-and-conservation model in the Ecuadorian Amazon that leaves oil reserves of the Yasuní Ishpingo Tambococha Tiputini (ITT oil fields underground, in exchange for international compensation payments that would be based on voluntary contributions of governments and nongovernmental actors in an international conservation partnership and trust fund under the auspices of the United Nations Development Programme. This model suggests far-reaching consequences, as it introduces new global scales for the sharing and management of environmental costs within a framework of neoliberal cost internalization. The analysis in this paper uses the concept of the “ecological state” (Duit, 2008 as a theoretical point of departure to examine the trans-scalar implications of such a carbon-and-conservation model on global governance structures toward a “global ecological state” (or global eco-state.

  5. Hybrid surrogate-model-based multi-fidelity efficient global optimization applied to helicopter blade design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariyarit, Atthaphon; Sugiura, Masahiko; Tanabe, Yasutada; Kanazaki, Masahiro

    2018-06-01

    A multi-fidelity optimization technique by an efficient global optimization process using a hybrid surrogate model is investigated for solving real-world design problems. The model constructs the local deviation using the kriging method and the global model using a radial basis function. The expected improvement is computed to decide additional samples that can improve the model. The approach was first investigated by solving mathematical test problems. The results were compared with optimization results from an ordinary kriging method and a co-kriging method, and the proposed method produced the best solution. The proposed method was also applied to aerodynamic design optimization of helicopter blades to obtain the maximum blade efficiency. The optimal shape obtained by the proposed method achieved performance almost equivalent to that obtained using the high-fidelity, evaluation-based single-fidelity optimization. Comparing all three methods, the proposed method required the lowest total number of high-fidelity evaluation runs to obtain a converged solution.

  6. Protein structure modeling for CASP10 by multiple layers of global optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joo, Keehyoung; Lee, Juyong; Sim, Sangjin; Lee, Sun Young; Lee, Kiho; Heo, Seungryong; Lee, In-Ho; Lee, Sung Jong; Lee, Jooyoung

    2014-02-01

    In the template-based modeling (TBM) category of CASP10 experiment, we introduced a new protocol called protein modeling system (PMS) to generate accurate protein structures in terms of side-chains as well as backbone trace. In the new protocol, a global optimization algorithm, called conformational space annealing (CSA), is applied to the three layers of TBM procedure: multiple sequence-structure alignment, 3D chain building, and side-chain re-modeling. For 3D chain building, we developed a new energy function which includes new distance restraint terms of Lorentzian type (derived from multiple templates), and new energy terms that combine (physical) energy terms such as dynamic fragment assembly (DFA) energy, DFIRE statistical potential energy, hydrogen bonding term, etc. These physical energy terms are expected to guide the structure modeling especially for loop regions where no template structures are available. In addition, we developed a new quality assessment method based on random forest machine learning algorithm to screen templates, multiple alignments, and final models. For TBM targets of CASP10, we find that, due to the combination of three stages of CSA global optimizations and quality assessment, the modeling accuracy of PMS improves at each additional stage of the protocol. It is especially noteworthy that the side-chains of the final PMS models are far more accurate than the models in the intermediate steps. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. On the use of tower-flux measurements to assess the performance of global ecosystem models

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Maayar, M.; Kucharik, C.

    2003-04-01

    Global ecosystem models are important tools for the study of biospheric processes and their responses to environmental changes. Such models typically translate knowledge, gained from local observations, into estimates of regional or even global outcomes of ecosystem processes. A typical test of ecosystem models consists of comparing their output against tower-flux measurements of land surface-atmosphere exchange of heat and mass. To perform such tests, models are typically run using detailed information on soil properties (texture, carbon content,...) and vegetation structure observed at the experimental site (e.g., vegetation height, vegetation phenology, leaf photosynthetic characteristics,...). In global simulations, however, earth's vegetation is typically represented by a limited number of plant functional types (PFT; group of plant species that have similar physiological and ecological characteristics). For each PFT (e.g., temperate broadleaf trees, boreal conifer evergreen trees,...), which can cover a very large area, a set of typical physiological and physical parameters are assigned. Thus, a legitimate question arises: How does the performance of a global ecosystem model run using detailed site-specific parameters compare with the performance of a less detailed global version where generic parameters are attributed to a group of vegetation species forming a PFT? To answer this question, we used a multiyear dataset, measured at two forest sites with contrasting environments, to compare seasonal and interannual variability of surface-atmosphere exchange of water and carbon predicted by the Integrated BIosphere Simulator-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Two types of simulations were, thus, performed: a) Detailed runs: observed vegetation characteristics (leaf area index, vegetation height,...) and soil carbon content, in addition to climate and soil type, are specified for model run; and b) Generic runs: when only observed climates and soil types at the

  8. A global renewable energy system: A modelling exercise in ETSAP/TIAM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Føyn, Tullik Helene Ystanes; Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard; Balyk, Olexandr

    2011-01-01

    This paper aims to test the ETSAP2-TIAM global energy system model and to try out how far it can go towards a global 100% renewable energy system with the existing model database. This will show where limits in global resources are met and where limits in the data fed to the model until now are met...

  9. Global biodiversity, stoichiometry and ecosystem function responses to human-induced C-N-P imbalances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnicer, Jofre; Sardans, Jordi; Stefanescu, Constantí; Ubach, Andreu; Bartrons, Mireia; Asensio, Dolores; Peñuelas, Josep

    2015-01-01

    Global change analyses usually consider biodiversity as a global asset that needs to be preserved. Biodiversity is frequently analysed mainly as a response variable affected by diverse environmental drivers. However, recent studies highlight that gradients of biodiversity are associated with gradual changes in the distribution of key dominant functional groups characterized by distinctive traits and stoichiometry, which in turn often define the rates of ecosystem processes and nutrient cycling. Moreover, pervasive links have been reported between biodiversity, food web structure, ecosystem function and species stoichiometry. Here we review current global stoichiometric gradients and how future distributional shifts in key functional groups may in turn influence basic ecosystem functions (production, nutrient cycling, decomposition) and therefore could exert a feedback effect on stoichiometric gradients. The C-N-P stoichiometry of most primary producers (phytoplankton, algae, plants) has been linked to functional trait continua (i.e. to major axes of phenotypic variation observed in inter-specific analyses of multiple traits). In contrast, the C-N-P stoichiometry of higher-level consumers remains less precisely quantified in many taxonomic groups. We show that significant links are observed between trait continua across trophic levels. In spite of recent advances, the future reciprocal feedbacks between key functional groups, biodiversity and ecosystem functions remain largely uncertain. The reported evidence, however, highlights the key role of stoichiometric traits and suggests the need of a progressive shift towards an ecosystemic and stoichiometric perspective in global biodiversity analyses. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  10. Long term, non-anthropogenic groundwater storage changes simulated by a global land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, B.; Rodell, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.

    2017-12-01

    Groundwater is crucial for meeting agricultural, industrial and municipal water needs, especially in arid, semi-arid and drought impacted regions. Yet, knowledge on groundwater response to climate variability is not well understood due to lack of systematic and continuous in situ measurements. In this study, we investigate global non-anthropogenic groundwater storage variations with a land surface model driven by a 67-year (1948-204) meteorological forcing data set. Model estimates were evaluated using in situ groundwater data from the central and northeastern U.S. and terrestrial water storage derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and found to be reasonable. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was employed to examine modes of variability of groundwater storage and their relationship with atmospheric effects such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. The result shows that the leading mode in global groundwater storage reflects the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Consistent with the EOF analysis, global total groundwater storage reflected the low frequency variability of ENSO and decreased significantly over 1948-2014 while global ET and precipitation did not exhibit statistically significant trends. This study suggests that while precipitation and ET are the primary drivers of climate related groundwater variability, changes in other forcing fields than precipitation and temperature are also important because of their influence on ET. We discuss the need to improve model physics and to continuously validate model estimates and forcing data for future studies.

  11. Generalized functional linear models for gene-based case-control association studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Ruzong; Wang, Yifan; Mills, James L; Carter, Tonia C; Lobach, Iryna; Wilson, Alexander F; Bailey-Wilson, Joan E; Weeks, Daniel E; Xiong, Momiao

    2014-11-01

    By using functional data analysis techniques, we developed generalized functional linear models for testing association between a dichotomous trait and multiple genetic variants in a genetic region while adjusting for covariates. Both fixed and mixed effect models are developed and compared. Extensive simulations show that Rao's efficient score tests of the fixed effect models are very conservative since they generate lower type I errors than nominal levels, and global tests of the mixed effect models generate accurate type I errors. Furthermore, we found that the Rao's efficient score test statistics of the fixed effect models have higher power than the sequence kernel association test (SKAT) and its optimal unified version (SKAT-O) in most cases when the causal variants are both rare and common. When the causal variants are all rare (i.e., minor allele frequencies less than 0.03), the Rao's efficient score test statistics and the global tests have similar or slightly lower power than SKAT and SKAT-O. In practice, it is not known whether rare variants or common variants in a gene region are disease related. All we can assume is that a combination of rare and common variants influences disease susceptibility. Thus, the improved performance of our models when the causal variants are both rare and common shows that the proposed models can be very useful in dissecting complex traits. We compare the performance of our methods with SKAT and SKAT-O on real neural tube defects and Hirschsprung's disease datasets. The Rao's efficient score test statistics and the global tests are more sensitive than SKAT and SKAT-O in the real data analysis. Our methods can be used in either gene-disease genome-wide/exome-wide association studies or candidate gene analyses. © 2014 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

  12. Regional Densification of a Global VTEC Model Based on B-Spline Representations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdogan, Eren; Schmidt, Michael; Dettmering, Denise; Goss, Andreas; Seitz, Florian; Börger, Klaus; Brandert, Sylvia; Görres, Barbara; Kersten, Wilhelm F.; Bothmer, Volker; Hinrichs, Johannes; Mrotzek, Niclas

    2017-04-01

    both directions. The spectral resolution of both model parts is defined by the number of B-spline basis functions introduced for longitude and latitude directions related to appropriate coordinate systems. Furthermore, the TLVM has to be developed under the postulation that the global model part will be computed continuously in near real-time (NRT) and routinely predicted into the future by an algorithm based on deterministic and statistical forecast models. Thus, the additional regional densification model part, which will be computed also in NRT, but possibly only for a specified time duration, must be estimated independently from the global one. For that purpose a data separation procedure has to be developed in order to estimate the unknown series coefficients of both model parts independently. This procedure must also consider additional technique-dependent unknowns such as the Differential Code Biases (DCBs) within GNSS and intersystem biases. In this contribution we will present the concept to set up the TLVM including the data combination and the Kalman filtering procedure; first numerical results will be presented.

  13. Global existence of periodic solutions on a simplified BAM neural network model with delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Baodong; Zhang Yazhuo; Zhang Chunrui

    2008-01-01

    A simplified n-dimensional BAM neural network model with delays is considered. Some results of Hopf bifurcations occurring at the zero equilibrium as the delay increases are exhibited. Global existence of periodic solutions are established using a global Hopf bifurcation result of Wu [Wu J. Symmetric functional-differential equations and neural networks with memory. Trans Am Math Soc 1998;350:4799-838], and a Bendixson criterion for higher dimensional ordinary differential equations due to Li and Muldowney [Li MY, Muldowney J. On Bendixson's criterion. J Differ Equations 1994;106:27-39]. Finally, computer simulations are performed to illustrate the analytical results found

  14. Retrieving global aerosol sources from satellites using inverse modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Dubovik

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding aerosol effects on global climate requires knowing the global distribution of tropospheric aerosols. By accounting for aerosol sources, transports, and removal processes, chemical transport models simulate the global aerosol distribution using archived meteorological fields. We develop an algorithm for retrieving global aerosol sources from satellite observations of aerosol distribution by inverting the GOCART aerosol transport model.

    The inversion is based on a generalized, multi-term least-squares-type fitting, allowing flexible selection and refinement of a priori algorithm constraints. For example, limitations can be placed on retrieved quantity partial derivatives, to constrain global aerosol emission space and time variability in the results. Similarities and differences between commonly used inverse modeling and remote sensing techniques are analyzed. To retain the high space and time resolution of long-period, global observational records, the algorithm is expressed using adjoint operators.

    Successful global aerosol emission retrievals at 2°×2.5 resolution were obtained by inverting GOCART aerosol transport model output, assuming constant emissions over the diurnal cycle, and neglecting aerosol compositional differences. In addition, fine and coarse mode aerosol emission sources were inverted separately from MODIS fine and coarse mode aerosol optical thickness data, respectively. These assumptions are justified, based on observational coverage and accuracy limitations, producing valuable aerosol source locations and emission strengths. From two weeks of daily MODIS observations during August 2000, the global placement of fine mode aerosol sources agreed with available independent knowledge, even though the inverse method did not use any a priori information about aerosol sources, and was initialized with a "zero aerosol emission" assumption. Retrieving coarse mode aerosol emissions was less successful

  15. Global convergence of periodic solution of neural networks with discontinuous activation functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Lihong; Guo Zhenyuan

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, without assuming boundedness and monotonicity of the activation functions, we establish some sufficient conditions ensuring the existence and global asymptotic stability of periodic solution of neural networks with discontinuous activation functions by using the Yoshizawa-like theorem and constructing proper Lyapunov function. The obtained results improve and extend previous works.

  16. Improved parameterization of managed grassland in a global process-based vegetation model using Bayesian statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolinski, S.; Müller, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Bondeau, A.

    2010-12-01

    More than a quarter of the Earth’s land surface is covered by grassland, which is also the major part (~ 70 %) of the agricultural area. Most of this area is used for livestock production in different degrees of intensity. The dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL (Sitch et al., Global Change Biology, 2003; Bondeau et al., Global Change Biology, 2007) is one of few process-based model that simulates biomass production on managed grasslands at the global scale. The implementation of managed grasslands and its evaluation has received little attention so far, as reference data on grassland productivity are scarce and the definition of grassland extent and usage are highly uncertain. However, grassland productivity is related to large areas, and strongly influences global estimates of carbon and water budgets and should thus be improved. Plants are implemented in LPJmL in an aggregated form as plant functional types assuming that processes concerning carbon and water fluxes are quite similar between species of the same type. Therefore, the parameterization of a functional type is possible with parameters in a physiologically meaningful range of values. The actual choice of the parameter values from the possible and reasonable phase space should satisfy the condition of the best fit of model results and measured data. In order to improve the parameterization of managed grass we follow a combined procedure using model output and measured data of carbon and water fluxes. By comparing carbon and water fluxes simultaneously, we expect well-balanced refinements and avoid over-tuning of the model in only one direction. The comparison of annual biomass from grassland to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) per country provide an overview about the order of magnitude and the identification of deviations. The comparison of daily net primary productivity, soil respiration and water fluxes at specific sites (FluxNet Data) provides

  17. Global and local curvature in density functional theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Qing; Ioannidis, Efthymios I; Kulik, Heather J

    2016-08-07

    Piecewise linearity of the energy with respect to fractional electron removal or addition is a requirement of an electronic structure method that necessitates the presence of a derivative discontinuity at integer electron occupation. Semi-local exchange-correlation (xc) approximations within density functional theory (DFT) fail to reproduce this behavior, giving rise to deviations from linearity with a convex global curvature that is evidence of many-electron, self-interaction error and electron delocalization. Popular functional tuning strategies focus on reproducing piecewise linearity, especially to improve predictions of optical properties. In a divergent approach, Hubbard U-augmented DFT (i.e., DFT+U) treats self-interaction errors by reducing the local curvature of the energy with respect to electron removal or addition from one localized subshell to the surrounding system. Although it has been suggested that DFT+U should simultaneously alleviate global and local curvature in the atomic limit, no detailed study on real systems has been carried out to probe the validity of this statement. In this work, we show when DFT+U should minimize deviations from linearity and demonstrate that a "+U" correction will never worsen the deviation from linearity of the underlying xc approximation. However, we explain varying degrees of efficiency of the approach over 27 octahedral transition metal complexes with respect to transition metal (Sc-Cu) and ligand strength (CO, NH3, and H2O) and investigate select pathological cases where the delocalization error is invisible to DFT+U within an atomic projection framework. Finally, we demonstrate that the global and local curvatures represent different quantities that show opposing behavior with increasing ligand field strength, and we identify where these two may still coincide.

  18. Using Models to Inform Policy: Insights from Modeling the Complexities of Global Polio Eradication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Kimberly M.

    Drawing on over 20 years of experience modeling risks in complex systems, this talk will challenge SBP participants to develop models that provide timely and useful answers to critical policy questions when decision makers need them. The talk will include reflections on the opportunities and challenges associated with developing integrated models for complex problems and communicating their results effectively. Dr. Thompson will focus the talk largely on collaborative modeling related to global polio eradication and the application of system dynamics tools. After successful global eradication of wild polioviruses, live polioviruses will still present risks that could potentially lead to paralytic polio cases. This talk will present the insights of efforts to use integrated dynamic, probabilistic risk, decision, and economic models to address critical policy questions related to managing global polio risks. Using a dynamic disease transmission model combined with probabilistic model inputs that characterize uncertainty for a stratified world to account for variability, we find that global health leaders will face some difficult choices, but that they can take actions that will manage the risks effectively. The talk will emphasize the need for true collaboration between modelers and subject matter experts, and the importance of working with decision makers as partners to ensure the development of useful models that actually get used.

  19. Global warming description using Daisyworld model with greenhouse gases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, Susana L D; Savi, Marcelo A; Viola, Flavio M; Leiroz, Albino J K

    2014-11-01

    Daisyworld is an archetypal model of the earth that is able to describe the global regulation that can emerge from the interaction between life and environment. This article proposes a model based on the original Daisyworld considering greenhouse gases emission and absorption, allowing the description of the global warming phenomenon. Global and local analyses are discussed evaluating the influence of greenhouse gases in the planet dynamics. Numerical simulations are carried out showing the general qualitative behavior of the Daisyworld for different scenarios that includes solar luminosity variations and greenhouse gases effect. Nonlinear dynamics perspective is of concern discussing a way that helps the comprehension of the global warming phenomenon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Are there links between responses of soil microbes and ecosystem functioning to elevated CO2, N deposition and warming? A global perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Palacios, Pablo; Vandegehuchte, Martijn L; Shaw, E Ashley; Dam, Marie; Post, Keith H; Ramirez, Kelly S; Sylvain, Zachary A; de Tomasel, Cecilia Milano; Wall, Diana H

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, there has been an increase in research to understand how global changes' impacts on soil biota translate into altered ecosystem functioning. However, results vary between global change effects, soil taxa, and ecosystem processes studied, and a synthesis of relationships is lacking. Therefore, here we initiate such a synthesis to assess whether the effect size of global change drivers (elevated CO2, N deposition, and warming) on soil microbial abundance is related with the effect size of these drivers on ecosystem functioning (plant biomass, soil C cycle, and soil N cycle) using meta-analysis and structural equation modeling. For N deposition and warming, the global change effect size on soil microbes was positively associated with the global change effect size on ecosystem functioning, and these relationships were consistent across taxa and ecosystem processes. However, for elevated CO2, such links were more taxon and ecosystem process specific. For example, fungal abundance responses to elevated CO2 were positively correlated with those of plant biomass but negatively with those of the N cycle. Our results go beyond previous assessments of the sensitivity of soil microbes and ecosystem processes to global change, and demonstrate the existence of general links between the responses of soil microbial abundance and ecosystem functioning. Further we identify critical areas for future research, specifically altered precipitation, soil fauna, soil community composition, and litter decomposition, that are need to better quantify the ecosystem consequences of global change impacts on soil biodiversity. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Rethinking plant functional types in Earth System Models: pan-tropical analysis of tree survival across environmental gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, D. J.; Needham, J.; Xu, C.; Davies, S. J.; Bunyavejchewin, S.; Giardina, C. P.; Condit, R.; Cordell, S.; Litton, C. M.; Hubbell, S.; Kassim, A. R. B.; Shawn, L. K. Y.; Nasardin, M. B.; Ong, P.; Ostertag, R.; Sack, L.; Tan, S. K. S.; Yap, S.; McDowell, N. G.; McMahon, S.

    2016-12-01

    Terrestrial carbon cycling is a function of the growth and survival of trees. Current model representations of tree growth and survival at a global scale rely on coarse plant functional traits that are parameterized very generally. In view of the large biodiversity in the tropical forests, it is important that we account for the functional diversity in order to better predict tropical forest responses to future climate changes. Several next generation Earth System Models are moving towards a size-structured, trait-based approach to modelling vegetation globally, but the challenge of which and how many traits are necessary to capture forest complexity remains. Additionally, the challenge of collecting sufficient trait data to describe the vast species richness of tropical forests is enormous. We propose a more fundamental approach to these problems by characterizing forests by their patterns of survival. We expect our approach to distill real-world tree survival into a reasonable number of functional types. Using 10 large-area tropical forest plots that span geographic, edaphic and climatic gradients, we model tree survival as a function of tree size for hundreds of species. We found surprisingly few categories of size-survival functions emerge. This indicates some fundamental strategies at play across diverse forests to constrain the range of possible size-survival functions. Initial cluster analysis indicates that four to eight functional forms are necessary to describe variation in size-survival relations. Temporal variation in size-survival functions can be related to local environmental variation, allowing us to parameterize how demographically similar groups of species respond to perturbations in the ecosystem. We believe this methodology will yield a synthetic approach to classifying forest systems that will greatly reduce uncertainty and complexity in global vegetation models.

  2. Dynamical patterns of calcium signaling in a functional model of neuron-astrocyte networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Postnov, D.E.; Koreshkov, R.N.; Brazhe, N.A.

    2009-01-01

    We propose a functional mathematical model for neuron-astrocyte networks. The model incorporates elements of the tripartite synapse and the spatial branching structure of coupled astrocytes. We consider glutamate-induced calcium signaling as a specific mode of excitability and transmission...... in astrocytic-neuronal networks. We reproduce local and global dynamical patterns observed experimentally....

  3. Seasonal variation of photosynthetic model parameters and leaf area index from global Fluxnet eddy covariance data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenendijk, M.; Dolman, A.J.; Ammann, C.; Arneth, A.; Cescatti, A.; Molen, van der M.K.; Moors, E.J.

    2011-01-01

    Global vegetation models require the photosynthetic parameters, maximum carboxylation capacity (Vcm), and quantum yield (a) to parameterize their plant functional types (PFTs). The purpose of this work is to determine how much the scaling of the parameters from leaf to ecosystem level through a

  4. A comparison of global optimization algorithms with standard benchmark functions and real-world applications using Energy Plus

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamph, Jerome Henri; Robinson, Darren; Wetter, Michael

    2009-09-01

    There is an increasing interest in the use of computer algorithms to identify combinations of parameters which optimise the energy performance of buildings. For such problems, the objective function can be multi-modal and needs to be approximated numerically using building energy simulation programs. As these programs contain iterative solution algorithms, they introduce discontinuities in the numerical approximation to the objective function. Metaheuristics often work well for such problems, but their convergence to a global optimum cannot be established formally. Moreover, different algorithms tend to be suited to particular classes of optimization problems. To shed light on this issue we compared the performance of two metaheuristics, the hybrid CMA-ES/HDE and the hybrid PSO/HJ, in minimizing standard benchmark functions and real-world building energy optimization problems of varying complexity. From this we find that the CMA-ES/HDE performs well on more complex objective functions, but that the PSO/HJ more consistently identifies the global minimum for simpler objective functions. Both identified similar values in the objective functions arising from energy simulations, but with different combinations of model parameters. This may suggest that the objective function is multi-modal. The algorithms also correctly identified some non-intuitive parameter combinations that were caused by a simplified control sequence of the building energy system that does not represent actual practice, further reinforcing their utility.

  5. Diagnosis and Quantification of Climatic Sensitivity of Carbon Fluxes in Ensemble Global Ecosystem Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Milesi, C.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R.

    2011-12-01

    Terrestrial ecosystem models are primary scientific tools to extrapolate our understanding of ecosystem functioning from point observations to global scales as well as from the past climatic conditions into the future. However, no model is nearly perfect and there are often considerable structural uncertainties existing between different models. Ensemble model experiments thus become a mainstream approach in evaluating the current status of global carbon cycle and predicting its future changes. A key task in such applications is to quantify the sensitivity of the simulated carbon fluxes to climate variations and changes. Here we develop a systematic framework to address this question solely by analyzing the inputs and the outputs from the models. The principle of our approach is to assume the long-term (~30 years) average of the inputs/outputs as a quasi-equlibrium of the climate-vegetation system while treat the anomalies of carbon fluxes as responses to climatic disturbances. In this way, the corresponding relationships can be largely linearized and analyzed using conventional time-series techniques. This method is used to characterize three major aspects of the vegetation models that are mostly important to global carbon cycle, namely the primary production, the biomass dynamics, and the ecosystem respiration. We apply this analytical framework to quantify the climatic sensitivity of an ensemble of models including CASA, Biome-BGC, LPJ as well as several other DGVMs from previous studies, all driven by the CRU-NCEP climate dataset. The detailed analysis results are reported in this study.

  6. Global qualitative analysis of a quartic ecological model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broer, Hendrik; Gaiko, Valery A.

    2010-01-01

    in this paper we complete the global qualitative analysis of a quartic ecological model. In particular, studying global bifurcations of singular points and limit cycles, we prove that the corresponding dynamical system has at most two limit cycles. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. What can'(t) we do with global flood risk models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P.; Jongman, B.; Salamon, P.; Simpson, A.; Bates, P. D.; de Groeve, T.; Muis, S.; Coughlan, E.; Rudari, R.; Trigg, M. A.; Winsemius, H.

    2015-12-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward, P.J. et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742.

  8. Combined discriminative global and generative local models for visual tracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Liujun; Zhao, Qingjie; Chen, Yanming; Lv, Peng

    2016-03-01

    It is a challenging task to develop an effective visual tracking algorithm due to factors such as pose variation, rotation, and so on. Combined discriminative global and generative local appearance models are proposed to address this problem. Specifically, we develop a compact global object representation by extracting the low-frequency coefficients of the color and texture of the object based on two-dimensional discrete cosine transform. Then, with the global appearance representation, we learn a discriminative metric classifier in an online fashion to differentiate the target object from its background, which is very important to robustly indicate the changes in appearance. Second, we develop a new generative local model that exploits the scale invariant feature transform and its spatial geometric information. To make use of the advantages of the global discriminative model and the generative local model, we incorporate them into Bayesian inference framework. In this framework, the complementary models help the tracker locate the target more accurately. Furthermore, we use different mechanisms to update global and local templates to capture appearance changes. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach performs favorably against state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy.

  9. HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM): Global

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and U.S. Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) 3-day, daily forecast at approximately 9-km (1/12-degree)...

  10. Integrating abundance and functional traits reveals new global hotspots of fish diversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuart-Smith, Rick D; Bates, Amanda E; Lefcheck, Jonathan S; Duffy, J Emmett; Baker, Susan C; Thomson, Russell J; Stuart-Smith, Jemina F; Hill, Nicole A; Kininmonth, Stuart J; Airoldi, Laura; Becerro, Mikel A; Campbell, Stuart J; Dawson, Terence P; Navarrete, Sergio A; Soler, German A; Strain, Elisabeth M A; Willis, Trevor J; Edgar, Graham J

    2013-09-26

    Species richness has dominated our view of global biodiversity patterns for centuries. The dominance of this paradigm is reflected in the focus by ecologists and conservation managers on richness and associated occurrence-based measures for understanding drivers of broad-scale diversity patterns and as a biological basis for management. However, this is changing rapidly, as it is now recognized that not only the number of species but the species present, their phenotypes and the number of individuals of each species are critical in determining the nature and strength of the relationships between species diversity and a range of ecological functions (such as biomass production and nutrient cycling). Integrating these measures should provide a more relevant representation of global biodiversity patterns in terms of ecological functions than that provided by simple species counts. Here we provide comparisons of a traditional global biodiversity distribution measure based on richness with metrics that incorporate species abundances and functional traits. We use data from standardized quantitative surveys of 2,473 marine reef fish species at 1,844 sites, spanning 133 degrees of latitude from all ocean basins, to identify new diversity hotspots in some temperate regions and the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. These relate to high diversity of functional traits amongst individuals in the community (calculated using Rao's Q), and differ from previously reported patterns in functional diversity and richness for terrestrial animals, which emphasize species-rich tropical regions only. There is a global trend for greater evenness in the number of individuals of each species, across the reef fish species observed at sites ('community evenness'), at higher latitudes. This contributes to the distribution of functional diversity hotspots and contrasts with well-known latitudinal gradients in richness. Our findings suggest that the contribution of species diversity to a range of

  11. Global variability in leaf respiration in relation to climate, plant functional types and leaf traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkin, Owen K; Bloomfield, Keith J; Reich, Peter B; Tjoelker, Mark G; Asner, Gregory P; Bonal, Damien; Bönisch, Gerhard; Bradford, Matt G; Cernusak, Lucas A; Cosio, Eric G; Creek, Danielle; Crous, Kristine Y; Domingues, Tomas F; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Egerton, John J G; Evans, John R; Farquhar, Graham D; Fyllas, Nikolaos M; Gauthier, Paul P G; Gloor, Emanuel; Gimeno, Teresa E; Griffin, Kevin L; Guerrieri, Rossella; Heskel, Mary A; Huntingford, Chris; Ishida, Françoise Yoko; Kattge, Jens; Lambers, Hans; Liddell, Michael J; Lloyd, Jon; Lusk, Christopher H; Martin, Roberta E; Maksimov, Ayal P; Maximov, Trofim C; Malhi, Yadvinder; Medlyn, Belinda E; Meir, Patrick; Mercado, Lina M; Mirotchnick, Nicholas; Ng, Desmond; Niinemets, Ülo; O'Sullivan, Odhran S; Phillips, Oliver L; Poorter, Lourens; Poot, Pieter; Prentice, I Colin; Salinas, Norma; Rowland, Lucy M; Ryan, Michael G; Sitch, Stephen; Slot, Martijn; Smith, Nicholas G; Turnbull, Matthew H; VanderWel, Mark C; Valladares, Fernando; Veneklaas, Erik J; Weerasinghe, Lasantha K; Wirth, Christian; Wright, Ian J; Wythers, Kirk R; Xiang, Jen; Xiang, Shuang; Zaragoza-Castells, Joana

    2015-04-01

    Leaf dark respiration (Rdark ) is an important yet poorly quantified component of the global carbon cycle. Given this, we analyzed a new global database of Rdark and associated leaf traits. Data for 899 species were compiled from 100 sites (from the Arctic to the tropics). Several woody and nonwoody plant functional types (PFTs) were represented. Mixed-effects models were used to disentangle sources of variation in Rdark . Area-based Rdark at the prevailing average daily growth temperature (T) of each site increased only twofold from the Arctic to the tropics, despite a 20°C increase in growing T (8-28°C). By contrast, Rdark at a standard T (25°C, Rdark (25) ) was threefold higher in the Arctic than in the tropics, and twofold higher at arid than at mesic sites. Species and PFTs at cold sites exhibited higher Rdark (25) at a given photosynthetic capacity (Vcmax (25) ) or leaf nitrogen concentration ([N]) than species at warmer sites. Rdark (25) values at any given Vcmax (25) or [N] were higher in herbs than in woody plants. The results highlight variation in Rdark among species and across global gradients in T and aridity. In addition to their ecological significance, the results provide a framework for improving representation of Rdark in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) and associated land-surface components of Earth system models (ESMs). © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

  12. Development of global medium-energy nucleon-nucleus optical model potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madland, D.G.; Sierk, A.J.

    1997-01-01

    The authors report on the development of new global optical model potentials for nucleon-nucleus scattering at medium energies. Using both Schroedinger and Dirac scattering formalisms, the goal is to construct a physically realistic optical potential describing nucleon-nucleus elastic scattering observables for a projectile energy range of (perhaps) 20 meV to (perhaps) 2 GeV and a target mass range of 16 to 209, excluding regions of strong nuclear deformation. They use a phenomenological approach guided by conclusions from recent microscopic studies. The experimental database consists largely of proton-nucleus elastic differential cross sections, analyzing powers, spin-rotation functions, and total reaction cross sections, and neutron-nucleus total cross sections. They will use this database in a nonlinear least-squares adjustment of optical model parameters in both relativistic equivalent Schroedinger (including relativistic kinematics) and Dirac (second-order reduction) formalisms. Isospin will be introduced through the standard Lane model and a relativistic generalization of that model

  13. Finsler metrics—a global approach with applications to geometric function theory

    CERN Document Server

    Abate, Marco

    1994-01-01

    Complex Finsler metrics appear naturally in complex analysis. To develop new tools in this area, the book provides a graduate-level introduction to differential geometry of complex Finsler metrics. After reviewing real Finsler geometry stressing global results, complex Finsler geometry is presented introducing connections, Kählerianity, geodesics, curvature. Finally global geometry and complex Monge-Ampère equations are discussed for Finsler manifolds with constant holomorphic curvature, which are important in geometric function theory. Following E. Cartan, S.S. Chern and S. Kobayashi, the global approach carries the full strength of hermitian geometry of vector bundles avoiding cumbersome computations, and thus fosters applications in other fields.

  14. Geophysical Global Modeling for Extreme Crop Production Using Photosynthesis Models Coupled to Ocean SST Dipoles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, D.

    2016-12-01

    Climate change appears to have manifested itself along with abnormal meteorological disasters. Instability caused by drought and flood disasters is producing poor harvests because of poor photosynthesis and pollination. Fluctuations of extreme phenomena are increasing rapidly because amplitudes of change are much greater than average trends. A fundamental cause of these phenomena derives from increased stored energy inside ocean waters. Geophysical and biochemical modeling of crop production can elucidate complex mechanisms under seasonal climate anomalies. The models have progressed through their combination with global climate reanalysis, environmental satellite data, and harvest data on the ground. This study examined adaptation of crop production to advancing abnormal phenomena related to global climate change. Global environmental surface conditions, i.e., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. Basic streams of the concepts of modeling rely upon continental energy flow and carbon circulation among crop vegetation, land surface atmosphere combining energy advection from ocean surface anomalies. Global environmental surface conditions, e.g., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. The method of validating the modeling relies upon carbon partitioning in biomass and grains through carbon flow by photosynthesis using carbon dioxide unit in photosynthesis. Results of computations done for this study show global distributions of actual evaporation, stomata opening, and photosynthesis, presenting mechanisms related to advection effects from SST anomalies in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans on global and continental croplands. For North America, climate effects appear clearly in severe atmospheric phenomena, which have caused drought and forest fires

  15. Use of wind data in global modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pailleux, J.

    1985-01-01

    The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is producing operational global analyses every 6 hours and operational global forecasts every day from the 12Z analysis. How the wind data are used in the ECMWF golbal analysis is described. For each current wind observing system, its ability to provide initial conditions for the forecast model is discussed as well as its weaknesses. An assessment of the impact of each individual system on the quality of the analysis and the forecast is given each time it is possible. Sometimes the deficiencies which are pointed out are related not only to the observing system itself but also to the optimum interpolation (OI) analysis scheme; then some improvements are generally possible through ad hoc modifications of the analysis scheme and especially tunings of the structure functions. Examples are given. The future observing network over the North Atlantic is examined. Several countries, coordinated by WMO, are working to set up an 'Operational WWW System Evaluation' (OWSE), in order to evaluate the operational aspects of the deployment of new systems (ASDAR, ASAP). Most of the new systems are expected to be deployed before January 1987, and in order to make the best use of the available resources during the deployment phase, some network studies are carried out at the present time, by using simulated data for ASDAR and ASAP systems. They are summarized.

  16. S-World: A high resolution global soil database for simulation modelling (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoorvogel, J. J.

    2013-12-01

    at a particular location given a specific soil type. The soil properties are predicted for each grid cell based on the soil type, the corresponding ranges of soil properties, and the co-variables. Step 4: Standard depth profiles are developed for each of the soil types using the diagnostic criteria of the soil types and soil profile information from the ISRIC-WISE database. The standard soil profiles are combined with the the predicted values for the topsoil and subsoil yielding unique soil profiles at each location. Step 5: In a final step, additional soil properties are added to the database using averages for the soil types and pedo-transfer functions. The methodology, denominated S-World (Soils of the World), results in readily available global maps with quantitative pedon data for modelling purposes. It forms the basis for the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison carried out within AgMIP.

  17. A physically based model of global freshwater surface temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Eikelboom, Tessa; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2012-09-01

    Temperature determines a range of physical properties of water and exerts a strong control on surface water biogeochemistry. Thus, in freshwater ecosystems the thermal regime directly affects the geographical distribution of aquatic species through their growth and metabolism and indirectly through their tolerance to parasites and diseases. Models used to predict surface water temperature range between physically based deterministic models and statistical approaches. Here we present the initial results of a physically based deterministic model of global freshwater surface temperature. The model adds a surface water energy balance to river discharge modeled by the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. In addition to advection of energy from direct precipitation, runoff, and lateral exchange along the drainage network, energy is exchanged between the water body and the atmosphere by shortwave and longwave radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes. Also included are ice formation and its effect on heat storage and river hydraulics. We use the coupled surface water and energy balance model to simulate global freshwater surface temperature at daily time steps with a spatial resolution of 0.5° on a regular grid for the period 1976-2000. We opt to parameterize the model with globally available data and apply it without calibration in order to preserve its physical basis with the outlook of evaluating the effects of atmospheric warming on freshwater surface temperature. We validate our simulation results with daily temperature data from rivers and lakes (U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), limited to the USA) and compare mean monthly temperatures with those recorded in the Global Environment Monitoring System (GEMS) data set. Results show that the model is able to capture the mean monthly surface temperature for the majority of the GEMS stations, while the interannual variability as derived from the USGS and NOAA data was captured reasonably well. Results are poorest for

  18. An Analysis of Yip's Global Strategy Model, Using Coca-Cola ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Analysis of the selected business cases suggest a weak fit between the Yip model of a truly Global strategy ... like Coca-Cola in the beverage industry for effective implementation of a global strategy. ... Keywords: Global Strategy, Leadership.

  19. Recent Progresses in Incorporating Human Land-Water Management into Global Land Surface Models Toward Their Integration into Earth System Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhrel, Yadu N.; Hanasaki, Naota; Wada, Yoshihide; Kim, Hyungjun

    2016-01-01

    The global water cycle has been profoundly affected by human land-water management. As the changes in the water cycle on land can affect the functioning of a wide range of biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system, it is essential to represent human land-water management in Earth system models (ESMs). During the recent past, noteworthy progress has been made in large-scale modeling of human impacts on the water cycle but sufficient advancements have not yet been made in integrating the newly developed schemes into ESMs. This study reviews the progresses made in incorporating human factors in large-scale hydrological models and their integration into ESMs. The study focuses primarily on the recent advancements and existing challenges in incorporating human impacts in global land surface models (LSMs) as a way forward to the development of ESMs with humans as integral components, but a brief review of global hydrological models (GHMs) is also provided. The study begins with the general overview of human impacts on the water cycle. Then, the algorithms currently employed to represent irrigation, reservoir operation, and groundwater pumping are discussed. Next, methodological deficiencies in current modeling approaches and existing challenges are identified. Furthermore, light is shed on the sources of uncertainties associated with model parameterizations, grid resolution, and datasets used for forcing and validation. Finally, representing human land-water management in LSMs is highlighted as an important research direction toward developing integrated models using ESM frameworks for the holistic study of human-water interactions within the Earths system.

  20. Euclidean scalar Green function in a higher dimensional global monopole space-time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bezerra de Mello, E.R.

    2002-01-01

    We construct the explicit Euclidean scalar Green function associated with a massless field in a higher dimensional global monopole space-time, i.e., a (1+d)-space-time with d≥3 which presents a solid angle deficit. Our result is expressed in terms of an infinite sum of products of Legendre functions with Gegenbauer polynomials. Although this Green function cannot be expressed in a closed form, for the specific case where the solid angle deficit is very small, it is possible to develop the sum and obtain the Green function in a more workable expression. Having this expression it is possible to calculate the vacuum expectation value of some relevant operators. As an application of this formalism, we calculate the renormalized vacuum expectation value of the square of the scalar field, 2 (x)> Ren , and the energy-momentum tensor, μν (x)> Ren , for the global monopole space-time with spatial dimensions d=4 and d=5

  1. Progress in Global Multicompartmental Modelling of DDT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stemmler, I.; Lammel, G.

    2009-04-01

    Dichlorophenyltrichloroethane, DDT, and its major metabolite dichlorophenyldichloroethylene, DDE, are long-lived in the environment (persistent) and circulate since the 1950s. They accumulate along food chains, cause detrimental effects in marine and terrestrial wild life, and pose a hazard for human health. DDT was widely used as an insecticide in the past and is still in use in a number of tropical countries to combat vector borne diseases like malaria and typhus. It is a multicompartmental substance with only a small mass fraction residing in air. A global multicompartment chemistry transport model (MPI-MCTM; Semeena et al., 2006) is used to study the environmental distribution and fate of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT). For the first time a horizontally and vertically resolved global model was used to perform a long-term simulation of DDT and DDE. The model is based on general circulation models for the ocean (MPIOM; Marsland et al., 2003) and atmosphere (ECHAM5). In addition, an oceanic biogeochemistry model (HAMOCC5.1; Maier-Reimer et al., 2005 ) and a microphysical aerosol model (HAM; Stier et al., 2005 ) are included. Multicompartmental substances are cycling in atmosphere (3 phases), ocean (3 phases), top soil (3 phases), and vegetation surfaces. The model was run for 40 years forced with historical agricultural application data of 1950-1990. The model results show that the global environmental contamination started to decrease in air, soil and vegetation after the applications peaked in 1965-70. In some regions, however, the DDT mass had not yet reached a maximum in 1990 and was still accumulating mass until the end of the simulation. Modelled DDT and DDE concentrations in atmosphere, ocean and soil are evaluated by comparison with observational data. The evaluation of the model results indicate that degradation of DDE in air was underestimated. Also for DDT, the discrepancies between model results and observations are related to uncertainties of

  2. Root structural and functional dynamics in terrestrial biosphere models--evaluation and recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Jeffrey M; Hanson, Paul J; Iversen, Colleen M; Kumar, Jitendra; Walker, Anthony P; Wullschleger, Stan D

    2015-01-01

    There is wide breadth of root function within ecosystems that should be considered when modeling the terrestrial biosphere. Root structure and function are closely associated with control of plant water and nutrient uptake from the soil, plant carbon (C) assimilation, partitioning and release to the soils, and control of biogeochemical cycles through interactions within the rhizosphere. Root function is extremely dynamic and dependent on internal plant signals, root traits and morphology, and the physical, chemical and biotic soil environment. While plant roots have significant structural and functional plasticity to changing environmental conditions, their dynamics are noticeably absent from the land component of process-based Earth system models used to simulate global biogeochemical cycling. Their dynamic representation in large-scale models should improve model veracity. Here, we describe current root inclusion in models across scales, ranging from mechanistic processes of single roots to parameterized root processes operating at the landscape scale. With this foundation we discuss how existing and future root functional knowledge, new data compilation efforts, and novel modeling platforms can be leveraged to enhance root functionality in large-scale terrestrial biosphere models by improving parameterization within models, and introducing new components such as dynamic root distribution and root functional traits linked to resource extraction. No claim to original US Government works. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

  3. Uncertainty of Monetary Valued Ecosystem Services – Value Transfer Functions for Global Mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Stefan; Manceur, Ameur M.; Seppelt, Ralf

    2016-01-01

    Growing demand of resources increases pressure on ecosystem services (ES) and biodiversity. Monetary valuation of ES is frequently seen as a decision-support tool by providing explicit values for unconsidered, non-market goods and services. Here we present global value transfer functions by using a meta-analytic framework for the synthesis of 194 case studies capturing 839 monetary values of ES. For 12 ES the variance of monetary values could be explained with a subset of 93 study- and site-specific variables by utilizing boosted regression trees. This provides the first global quantification of uncertainties and transferability of monetary valuations. Models explain from 18% (water provision) to 44% (food provision) of variance and provide statistically reliable extrapolations for 70% (water provision) to 91% (food provision) of the terrestrial earth surface. Although the application of different valuation methods is a source of uncertainty, we found evidence that assuming homogeneity of ecosystems is a major error in value transfer function models. Food provision is positively correlated with better life domains and variables indicating positive conditions for human well-being. Water provision and recreation service show that weak ownerships affect valuation of other common goods negatively (e.g. non-privately owned forests). Furthermore, we found support for the shifting baseline hypothesis in valuing climate regulation. Ecological conditions and societal vulnerability determine valuation of extreme event prevention. Valuation of habitat services is negatively correlated with indicators characterizing less favorable areas. Our analysis represents a stepping stone to establish a standardized integration of and reporting on uncertainties for reliable and valid benefit transfer as an important component for decision support. PMID:26938447

  4. A New Filled Function Method with One Parameter for Global Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Wei

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The filled function method is an effective approach to find the global minimizer of multidimensional multimodal functions. The conventional filled functions are numerically unstable due to exponential or logarithmic term and sensitive to parameters. In this paper, a new filled function with only one parameter is proposed, which is continuously differentiable and proved to satisfy all conditions of the filled function definition. Moreover, this filled function is not sensitive to parameter, and the overflow can not happen for this function. Based on these, a new filled function method is proposed, and it is numerically stable to the initial point and the parameter variable. The computer simulations indicate that the proposed filled function method is efficient and effective.

  5. Global Volcano Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, R. S. J.; Loughlin, S. C.; Cottrell, E.; Valentine, G.; Newhall, C.; Jolly, G.; Papale, P.; Takarada, S.; Crosweller, S.; Nayembil, M.; Arora, B.; Lowndes, J.; Connor, C.; Eichelberger, J.; Nadim, F.; Smolka, A.; Michel, G.; Muir-Wood, R.; Horwell, C.

    2012-04-01

    Over 600 million people live close enough to active volcanoes to be affected when they erupt. Volcanic eruptions cause loss of life, significant economic losses and severe disruption to people's lives, as highlighted by the recent eruption of Mount Merapi in Indonesia. The eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland in 2010 illustrated the potential of even small eruptions to have major impact on the modern world through disruption of complex critical infrastructure and business. The effects in the developing world on economic growth and development can be severe. There is evidence that large eruptions can cause a change in the earth's climate for several years afterwards. Aside from meteor impact and possibly an extreme solar event, very large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions may be the only natural hazard that could cause a global catastrophe. GVM is a growing international collaboration that aims to create a sustainable, accessible information platform on volcanic hazard and risk. We are designing and developing an integrated database system of volcanic hazards, vulnerability and exposure with internationally agreed metadata standards. GVM will establish methodologies for analysis of the data (eg vulnerability indices) to inform risk assessment, develop complementary hazards models and create relevant hazards and risk assessment tools. GVM will develop the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences. NERC is funding the start-up of this initiative for three years from November 2011. GVM builds directly on the VOGRIPA project started as part of the GRIP (Global Risk Identification Programme) in 2004 under the auspices of the World Bank and UN. Major international initiatives and partners such as the Smithsonian Institution - Global Volcanism Program, State University of New York at Buffalo - VHub, Earth Observatory of Singapore - WOVOdat and many others underpin GVM.

  6. Inter-model variability and biases of the global water cycle in CMIP3 coupled climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liepert, Beate G; Previdi, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Observed changes such as increasing global temperatures and the intensification of the global water cycle in the 20th century are robust results of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). In spite of these successes, model-to-model variability and biases that are small in first order climate responses, however, have considerable implications for climate predictability especially when multi-model means are used. We show that most climate simulations of the 20th and 21st century A2 scenario performed with CMIP3 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3) models have deficiencies in simulating the global atmospheric moisture balance. Large biases of only a few models (some biases reach the simulated global precipitation changes in the 20th and 21st centuries) affect the multi-model mean global moisture budget. An imbalanced flux of −0.14 Sv exists while the multi-model median imbalance is only −0.02 Sv. Moreover, for most models the detected imbalance changes over time. As a consequence, in 13 of the 18 CMIP3 models examined, global annual mean precipitation exceeds global evaporation, indicating that there should be a ‘leaking’ of moisture from the atmosphere whereas for the remaining five models a ‘flooding’ is implied. Nonetheless, in all models, the actual atmospheric moisture content and its variability correctly increases during the course of the 20th and 21st centuries. These discrepancies therefore imply an unphysical and hence ‘ghost’ sink/source of atmospheric moisture in the models whose atmospheres flood/leak. The ghost source/sink of moisture can also be regarded as atmospheric latent heating/cooling and hence as positive/negative perturbation of the atmospheric energy budget or non-radiative forcing in the range of −1 to +6 W m −2 (median +0.1 W m −2 ). The inter-model variability of the global atmospheric moisture transport from oceans to land areas, which impacts the terrestrial water cycle, is also quite high and ranges

  7. GEM1: First-year modeling and IT activities for the Global Earthquake Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, G.; Giardini, D.; Wiemer, S.

    2009-04-01

    GEM is a public-private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to build an independent standard for modeling and communicating earthquake risk worldwide. GEM is aimed at providing authoritative, open information about seismic risk and decision tools to support mitigation. GEM will also raise risk awareness and help post-disaster economic development, with the ultimate goal of reducing the toll of future earthquakes. GEM will provide a unified set of seismic hazard, risk, and loss modeling tools based on a common global IT infrastructure and consensus standards. These tools, systems, and standards will be developed in partnership with organizations around the world, with coordination by the GEM Secretariat and its Secretary General. GEM partners will develop a variety of global components, including a unified earthquake catalog, fault database, and ground motion prediction equations. To ensure broad representation and community acceptance, GEM will include local knowledge in all modeling activities, incorporate existing detailed models where possible, and independently test all resulting tools and models. When completed in five years, GEM will have a versatile, penly accessible modeling environment that can be updated as necessary, and will provide the global standard for seismic hazard, risk, and loss models to government ministers, scientists and engineers, financial institutions, and the public worldwide. GEM is now underway with key support provided by private sponsors (Munich Reinsurance Company, Zurich Financial Services, AIR Worldwide Corporation, and Willis Group Holdings); countries including Belgium, Germany, Italy, Singapore, Switzerland, and Turkey; and groups such as the European Commission. The GEM Secretariat has been selected by the OECD and will be hosted at the Eucentre at the University of Pavia in Italy; the Secretariat is now formalizing the creation of the GEM Foundation. Some of GEM's global

  8. [Human-robot global Simulink modeling and analysis for an end-effector upper limb rehabilitation robot].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yali; Ji, Linhong

    2018-02-01

    Robot rehabilitation has been a primary therapy method for the urgent rehabilitation demands of paralyzed patients after a stroke. The parameters in rehabilitation training such as the range of the training, which should be adjustable according to each participant's functional ability, are the key factors influencing the effectiveness of rehabilitation therapy. Therapists design rehabilitation projects based on the semiquantitative functional assessment scales and their experience. But these therapies based on therapists' experience cannot be implemented in robot rehabilitation therapy. This paper modeled the global human-robot by Simulink in order to analyze the relationship between the parameters in robot rehabilitation therapy and the patients' movement functional abilities. We compared the shoulder and elbow angles calculated by simulation with the angles recorded by motion capture system while the healthy subjects completed the simulated action. Results showed there was a remarkable correlation between the simulation data and the experiment data, which verified the validity of the human-robot global Simulink model. Besides, the relationship between the circle radius in the drawing tasks in robot rehabilitation training and the active movement degrees of shoulder as well as elbow was also matched by a linear, which also had a remarkable fitting coefficient. The matched linear can be a quantitative reference for the robot rehabilitation training parameters.

  9. Global/local methods for probabilistic structural analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millwater, H. R.; Wu, Y.-T.

    1993-04-01

    A probabilistic global/local method is proposed to reduce the computational requirements of probabilistic structural analysis. A coarser global model is used for most of the computations with a local more refined model used only at key probabilistic conditions. The global model is used to establish the cumulative distribution function (cdf) and the Most Probable Point (MPP). The local model then uses the predicted MPP to adjust the cdf value. The global/local method is used within the advanced mean value probabilistic algorithm. The local model can be more refined with respect to the g1obal model in terms of finer mesh, smaller time step, tighter tolerances, etc. and can be used with linear or nonlinear models. The basis for this approach is described in terms of the correlation between the global and local models which can be estimated from the global and local MPPs. A numerical example is presented using the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis program with the finite element method used for the structural modeling. The results clearly indicate a significant computer savings with minimal loss in accuracy.

  10. Spatially explicit modeling of particulate nutrient flux in Large global rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, S.; Kettner, A.; Mayorga, E.; Harrison, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    Water, sediment, nutrient and carbon fluxes along river networks have undergone considerable alterations in response to anthropogenic and climatic changes, with significant consequences to infrastructure, agriculture, water security, ecology and geomorphology worldwide. However, in a global setting, these changes in fluvial fluxes and their spatial and temporal characteristics are poorly constrained, due to the limited availability of continuous and long-term observations. We present results from a new global-scale particulate modeling framework (WBMsedNEWS) that combines the Global NEWS watershed nutrient export model with the spatially distributed WBMsed water and sediment model. We compare the model predictions against multiple observational datasets. The results indicate that the model is able to accurately predict particulate nutrient (Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Organic Carbon) fluxes on an annual time scale. Analysis of intra-basin nutrient dynamics and fluxes to global oceans is presented.

  11. The helical ventricular myocardial band: global, three-dimensional, functional architecture of the ventricular myocardium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kocica, Mladen J; Corno, Antonio F; Carreras-Costa, Francesc; Ballester-Rodes, Manel; Moghbel, Mark C; Cueva, Clotario N C; Lackovic, Vesna; Kanjuh, Vladimir I; Torrent-Guasp, Francisco

    2006-04-01

    We are currently witnessing the advent of new diagnostic tools and therapies for heart diseases, but, without serious scientific consensus on fundamental questions about normal and diseased heart structure and function. During the last decade, three successive, international, multidisciplinary symposia were organized in order to setup fundamental research principles, which would allow us to make a significant step forward in understanding heart structure and function. Helical ventricular myocardial band of Torrent-Guasp is the revolutionary new concept in understanding global, three-dimensional, functional architecture of the ventricular myocardium. This concept defines the principal, cumulative vectors, integrating the tissue architecture (i.e. form) and net forces developed (i.e. function) within the ventricular mass. Here we expose the compendium of Torrent-Guasp's half-century long functional anatomical investigations in the light of ongoing efforts to define the integrative approach, which would lead to new understanding of the ventricular form and function by linking across multiple scales of biological organization, as defined in ongoing Physiome project. Helical ventricular myocardial band of Torrent-Guasp may also, hopefully, allow overcoming some difficulties encountered in contemporary efforts to create a comprehensive mathematical model of the heart.

  12. Paladin Enterprises: Monolithic particle physics models global climate.

    CERN Multimedia

    2002-01-01

    Paladin Enterprises presents a monolithic particle model of the universe which will be used by them to build an economical fusion energy system. The model is an extension of the work done by James Clerk Maxwell. Essentially, gravity is unified with electro-magnetic forces and shown to be a product of a closed loop current system, i.e. a particle - monolithic or sub atomic. This discovery explains rapid global climate changes which are evident in the geological record and also provides an explanation for recent changes in the global climate.

  13. Regression Model to Predict Global Solar Irradiance in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hairuniza Ahmed Kutty

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel regression model is developed to estimate the monthly global solar irradiance in Malaysia. The model is developed based on different available meteorological parameters, including temperature, cloud cover, rain precipitate, relative humidity, wind speed, pressure, and gust speed, by implementing regression analysis. This paper reports on the details of the analysis of the effect of each prediction parameter to identify the parameters that are relevant to estimating global solar irradiance. In addition, the proposed model is compared in terms of the root mean square error (RMSE, mean bias error (MBE, and the coefficient of determination (R2 with other models available from literature studies. Seven models based on single parameters (PM1 to PM7 and five multiple-parameter models (PM7 to PM12 are proposed. The new models perform well, with RMSE ranging from 0.429% to 1.774%, R2 ranging from 0.942 to 0.992, and MBE ranging from −0.1571% to 0.6025%. In general, cloud cover significantly affects the estimation of global solar irradiance. However, cloud cover in Malaysia lacks sufficient influence when included into multiple-parameter models although it performs fairly well in single-parameter prediction models.

  14. The Global Modeling Test Bed - Building a New National Capability for Advancing Operational Global Modeling in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toepfer, F.; Cortinas, J. V., Jr.; Kuo, W.; Tallapragada, V.; Stajner, I.; Nance, L. B.; Kelleher, K. E.; Firl, G.; Bernardet, L.

    2017-12-01

    NOAA develops, operates, and maintains an operational global modeling capability for weather, sub seasonal and seasonal prediction for the protection of life and property and fostering the US economy. In order to substantially improve the overall performance and accelerate advancements of the operational modeling suite, NOAA is partnering with NCAR to design and build the Global Modeling Test Bed (GMTB). The GMTB has been established to provide a platform and a capability for researchers to contribute to the advancement primarily through the development of physical parameterizations needed to improve operational NWP. The strategy to achieve this goal relies on effectively leveraging global expertise through a modern collaborative software development framework. This framework consists of a repository of vetted and supported physical parameterizations known as the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP), a common well-documented interface known as the Interoperable Physics Driver (IPD) for combining schemes into suites and for their configuration and connection to dynamic cores, and an open evidence-based governance process for managing the development and evolution of CCPP. In addition, a physics test harness designed to work within this framework has been established in order to facilitate easier like-to-like comparison of physics advancements. This paper will present an overview of the design of the CCPP and test platform. Additionally, an overview of potential new opportunities of how physics developers can engage in the process, from implementing code for CCPP/IPD compliance to testing their development within an operational-like software environment, will be presented. In addition, insight will be given as to how development gets elevated to CPPP-supported status, the pre-cursor to broad availability and use within operational NWP. An overview of how the GMTB can be expanded to support other global or regional modeling capabilities will also be presented.

  15. Toward GEOS-6, A Global Cloud System Resolving Atmospheric Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putman, William M.

    2010-01-01

    NASA is committed to observing and understanding the weather and climate of our home planet through the use of multi-scale modeling systems and space-based observations. Global climate models have evolved to take advantage of the influx of multi- and many-core computing technologies and the availability of large clusters of multi-core microprocessors. GEOS-6 is a next-generation cloud system resolving atmospheric model that will place NASA at the forefront of scientific exploration of our atmosphere and climate. Model simulations with GEOS-6 will produce a realistic representation of our atmosphere on the scale of typical satellite observations, bringing a visual comprehension of model results to a new level among the climate enthusiasts. In preparation for GEOS-6, the agency's flagship Earth System Modeling Framework [JDl] has been enhanced to support cutting-edge high-resolution global climate and weather simulations. Improvements include a cubed-sphere grid that exposes parallelism; a non-hydrostatic finite volume dynamical core, and algorithm designed for co-processor technologies, among others. GEOS-6 represents a fundamental advancement in the capability of global Earth system models. The ability to directly compare global simulations at the resolution of spaceborne satellite images will lead to algorithm improvements and better utilization of space-based observations within the GOES data assimilation system

  16. ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V002

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) was developed jointly by the U.S. National...

  17. Seismic waves and earthquakes in a global monolithic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roubíček, Tomáš

    2018-03-01

    The philosophy that a single "monolithic" model can "asymptotically" replace and couple in a simple elegant way several specialized models relevant on various Earth layers is presented and, in special situations, also rigorously justified. In particular, global seismicity and tectonics is coupled to capture, e.g., (here by a simplified model) ruptures of lithospheric faults generating seismic waves which then propagate through the solid-like mantle and inner core both as shear (S) or pressure (P) waves, while S-waves are suppressed in the fluidic outer core and also in the oceans. The "monolithic-type" models have the capacity to describe all the mentioned features globally in a unified way together with corresponding interfacial conditions implicitly involved, only when scaling its parameters appropriately in different Earth's layers. Coupling of seismic waves with seismic sources due to tectonic events is thus an automatic side effect. The global ansatz is here based, rather for an illustration, only on a relatively simple Jeffreys' viscoelastic damageable material at small strains whose various scaling (limits) can lead to Boger's viscoelastic fluid or even to purely elastic (inviscid) fluid. Self-induced gravity field, Coriolis, centrifugal, and tidal forces are counted in our global model, as well. The rigorous mathematical analysis as far as the existence of solutions, convergence of the mentioned scalings, and energy conservation is briefly presented.

  18. Local and global processing of music in high-functioning persons with autism: beyond central coherence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mottron, L; Peretz, I; Ménard, E

    2000-11-01

    A multi-modal abnormality in the integration of parts and whole has been proposed to account for a bias toward local stimuli in individuals with autism (Frith, 1989; Mottron & Belleville, 1993). In the current experiment, we examined the utility of hierarchical models in characterising musical information processing in autistic individuals. Participants were 13 high-functioning individuals with autism and 13 individuals of normal intelligence matched on chronological age, nonverbal IQ, and laterality, and without musical experience. The task consisted of same-different judgements of pairs of melodies. Differential local and global processing was assessed by manipulating the level, local or global, at which modifications occurred. No deficit was found in the two measures of global processing. In contrast, the clinical group performed better than the comparison group in the detection of change in nontransposed, contour-preserved melodies that tap local processing. These findings confirm the existence of a "local bias" in music perception in individuals with autism, but challenge the notion that it is accounted for by a deficit in global music processing. The present study suggests that enhanced processing of elementary physical properties of incoming stimuli, as found previously in the visual modality, may also exist in the auditory modality.

  19. Revising a conceptual model of partnership and sustainability in global health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Upvall, Michele J; Leffers, Jeanne M

    2018-05-01

    Models to guide global health partnerships are rare in the nursing literature. The Conceptual Model for Partnership and Sustainability in Global Health while significant was based on Western perspectives. The purpose of this study was to revise the model to include the voice of nurses from low- and middle-resource countries. Grounded theory was used to maintain fidelity with the design in the original model. A purposive sample of 15 participants from a variety of countries in Africa, the Caribbean, and Southeast Asia and having extensive experience in global health partnerships were interviewed. Skype recordings and in-person interviews were audiotaped using the same questions as the original study. Theoretical coding and a comparison of results with the original study was completed independently by the researchers. The process of global health partnerships was expanded from the original model to include engagement processes and processes for ongoing partnership development. New concepts of Transparency, Expanded World View, and Accompaniment were included as well as three broad themes: Geopolitical Influence, Power differential/Inequities, and Collegial Friendships. The revised conceptual model embodies a more comprehensive model of global health partnerships with representation of nurses from low- and middle-resource countries. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. Description and Evaluation of IAP-AACM: A Global-regional Aerosol Chemistry Model for the Earth System Model CAS-ESM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Y.; Chen, X.

    2017-12-01

    We present a first description and evaluation of the IAP Atmospheric Aerosol Chemistry Model (IAP-AACM) which has been integrated into the earth system model CAS-ESM. In this way it is possible to research into interaction of clouds and aerosol by its two-way coupling with the IAP Atmospheric General Circulation Model (IAP-AGCM). The model has a nested global-regional grid based on the Global Environmental Atmospheric Transport Model (GEATM) and the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS). The AACM provides two optional gas chemistry schemes, the CBM-Z gas chemistry as well as a sulfur oxidize box designed specifically for the CAS-ESM. Now the model driven by AGCM has been applied to a 1-year simulation of tropospheric chemistry both on global and regional scales for 2014, and been evaluated against various observation datasets, including aerosol precursor gas concentration, aerosol mass and number concentrations. Furthermore, global budgets in AACM are compared with other global aerosol models. Generally, the AACM simulations are within the range of other global aerosol model predictions, and the model has a reasonable agreement with observations of gases and particles concentration both on global and regional scales.

  1. Highlighting the Structure-Function Relationship of the Brain with the Ising Model and Graph Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. K. Das

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the advent of neuroimaging techniques, it becomes feasible to explore the structure-function relationships in the brain. When the brain is not involved in any cognitive task or stimulated by any external output, it preserves important activities which follow well-defined spatial distribution patterns. Understanding the self-organization of the brain from its anatomical structure, it has been recently suggested to model the observed functional pattern from the structure of white matter fiber bundles. Different models which study synchronization (e.g., the Kuramoto model or global dynamics (e.g., the Ising model have shown success in capturing fundamental properties of the brain. In particular, these models can explain the competition between modularity and specialization and the need for integration in the brain. Graphing the functional and structural brain organization supports the model and can also highlight the strategy used to process and organize large amount of information traveling between the different modules. How the flow of information can be prevented or partially destroyed in pathological states, like in severe brain injured patients with disorders of consciousness or by pharmacological induction like in anaesthesia, will also help us to better understand how global or integrated behavior can emerge from local and modular interactions.

  2. Leveraging the Global Health Service Partnership Model for Workforce Development in Global Radiation Oncology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omoruyi Credit Irabor

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A major contributor to the disparity in cancer outcome across the globe is the limited health care access in low- and middle-income countries that results from the shortfall in human resources for health (HRH, fomented by the limited training and leadership capacity of low-resource countries. In 2012, Seed Global Health teamed up with the Peace Corps to create the Global Health Service Partnership, an initiative that has introduced a novel model for tackling the HRH crises in developing regions of the world. The Global Health Service Partnership has made global health impacts in leveraging partnerships for HRH development, faculty activities and output, scholarship engagement, adding value to the learning environment, health workforce empowerment, and infrastructure development.

  3. Emulation of a complex global aerosol model to quantify sensitivity to uncertain parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. A. Lee

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Sensitivity analysis of atmospheric models is necessary to identify the processes that lead to uncertainty in model predictions, to help understand model diversity through comparison of driving processes, and to prioritise research. Assessing the effect of parameter uncertainty in complex models is challenging and often limited by CPU constraints. Here we present a cost-effective application of variance-based sensitivity analysis to quantify the sensitivity of a 3-D global aerosol model to uncertain parameters. A Gaussian process emulator is used to estimate the model output across multi-dimensional parameter space, using information from a small number of model runs at points chosen using a Latin hypercube space-filling design. Gaussian process emulation is a Bayesian approach that uses information from the model runs along with some prior assumptions about the model behaviour to predict model output everywhere in the uncertainty space. We use the Gaussian process emulator to calculate the percentage of expected output variance explained by uncertainty in global aerosol model parameters and their interactions. To demonstrate the technique, we show examples of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN sensitivity to 8 model parameters in polluted and remote marine environments as a function of altitude. In the polluted environment 95 % of the variance of CCN concentration is described by uncertainty in the 8 parameters (excluding their interaction effects and is dominated by the uncertainty in the sulphur emissions, which explains 80 % of the variance. However, in the remote region parameter interaction effects become important, accounting for up to 40 % of the total variance. Some parameters are shown to have a negligible individual effect but a substantial interaction effect. Such sensitivities would not be detected in the commonly used single parameter perturbation experiments, which would therefore underpredict total uncertainty. Gaussian process

  4. Network organization is globally atypical in autism: A graph theory study of intrinsic functional connectivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keown, Christopher L; Datko, Michael C; Chen, Colleen P; Maximo, José Omar; Jahedi, Afrooz; Müller, Ralph-Axel

    2017-01-01

    Despite abundant evidence of brain network anomalies in autism spectrum disorder (ASD), findings have varied from broad functional underconnectivity to broad overconnectivity. Rather than pursuing overly simplifying general hypotheses ('under' vs. 'over'), we tested the hypothesis of atypical network distribution in ASD (i.e., participation of unusual loci in distributed functional networks). We used a selective high-quality data subset from the ABIDE datashare (including 111 ASD and 174 typically developing [TD] participants) and several graph theory metrics. Resting state functional MRI data were preprocessed and analyzed for detection of low-frequency intrinsic signal correlations. Groups were tightly matched for available demographics and head motion. As hypothesized, the Rand Index (reflecting how similar network organization was to a normative set of networks) was significantly lower in ASD than TD participants. This was accounted for by globally reduced cohesion and density, but increased dispersion of networks. While differences in hub architecture did not survive correction, rich club connectivity (among the hubs) was increased in the ASD group. Our findings support the model of reduced network integration (connectivity with networks) and differentiation (or segregation; based on connectivity outside network boundaries) in ASD. While the findings applied at the global level, they were not equally robust across all networks and in one case (greater cohesion within ventral attention network in ASD) even reversed.

  5. Quantification of effective plant rooting depth: advancing global hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Y.; Donohue, R. J.; McVicar, T.

    2017-12-01

    Plant rooting depth (Zr) is a key parameter in hydrological and biogeochemical models, yet the global spatial distribution of Zr is largely unknown due to the difficulties in its direct measurement. Moreover, Zr observations are usually only representative of a single plant or several plants, which can differ greatly from the effective Zr over a modelling unit (e.g., catchment or grid-box). Here, we provide a global parameterization of an analytical Zr model that balances the marginal carbon cost and benefit of deeper roots, and produce a climatological (i.e., 1982-2010 average) global Zr map. To test the Zr estimates, we apply the estimated Zr in a highly transparent hydrological model (i.e., the Budyko-Choudhury-Porporato (BCP) model) to estimate mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) across the globe. We then compare the estimated E with both water balance-based E observations at 32 major catchments and satellite grid-box retrievals across the globe. Our results show that the BCP model, when implemented with Zr estimated herein, optimally reproduced the spatial pattern of E at both scales and provides improved model outputs when compared to BCP model results from two already existing global Zr datasets. These results suggest that our Zr estimates can be effectively used in state-of-the-art hydrological models, and potentially biogeochemical models, where the determination of Zr currently largely relies on biome type-based look-up tables.

  6. Time series modelling of global mean temperature for managerial decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romilly, Peter

    2005-07-01

    Climate change has important implications for business and economic activity. Effective management of climate change impacts will depend on the availability of accurate and cost-effective forecasts. This paper uses univariate time series techniques to model the properties of a global mean temperature dataset in order to develop a parsimonious forecasting model for managerial decision-making over the short-term horizon. Although the model is estimated on global temperature data, the methodology could also be applied to temperature data at more localised levels. The statistical techniques include seasonal and non-seasonal unit root testing with and without structural breaks, as well as ARIMA and GARCH modelling. A forecasting evaluation shows that the chosen model performs well against rival models. The estimation results confirm the findings of a number of previous studies, namely that global mean temperatures increased significantly throughout the 20th century. The use of GARCH modelling also shows the presence of volatility clustering in the temperature data, and a positive association between volatility and global mean temperature.

  7. MODELING PARTICLE SIZE DISTRIBUTION IN HETEROGENEOUS POLYMERIZATION SYSTEMS USING MULTIMODAL LOGNORMAL FUNCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Ferrari

    Full Text Available Abstract This work evaluates the usage of the multimodal lognormal function to describe Particle Size Distributions (PSD of emulsion and suspension polymerization processes, including continuous reactions with particle re-nucleation leading to complex multimodal PSDs. A global optimization algorithm, namely Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO, was used for parameter estimation of the proposed model, minimizing the objective function defined by the mean squared errors. Statistical evaluation of the results indicated that the multimodal lognormal function could describe distinctive features of different types of PSDs with accuracy and consistency.

  8. Scanning the Global Environment. A framework and methodology for UNEP's reporting functions

    OpenAIRE

    Swart RJ; Bakkes JA; Niessen LW; Rotmans J; Vries HJM de; Weterings R; Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieuhygiene RIVM; United Nations Environment Programme UNEP; MTV; ISC; VTV; CWM; SB4; TNO Centre for Technology and Policy Studies

    1994-01-01

    A conceptual framework for UNEP's reporting functions is proposed, aimed at supporting strategic environmental policy development. To this end information should be provided about the past, current and future state of the environment as a function of demographic and socio-economic developments. The policy relevance of the existing global environmental reporting functions may be improved considerably by introducing three new elements: (1) the application of integrated conceptual frameworks and...

  9. Evaluation of global climate models for Indian monsoon climatology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kodra, Evan; Ganguly, Auroop R; Ghosh, Subimal

    2012-01-01

    The viability of global climate models for forecasting the Indian monsoon is explored. Evaluation and intercomparison of model skills are employed to assess the reliability of individual models and to guide model selection strategies. Two dominant and unique patterns of Indian monsoon climatology are trends in maximum temperature and periodicity in total rainfall observed after 30 yr averaging over India. An examination of seven models and their ensembles reveals that no single model or model selection strategy outperforms the rest. The single-best model for the periodicity of Indian monsoon rainfall is the only model that captures a low-frequency natural climate oscillator thought to dictate the periodicity. The trend in maximum temperature, which most models are thought to handle relatively better, is best captured through a multimodel average compared to individual models. The results suggest a need to carefully evaluate individual models and model combinations, in addition to physical drivers where possible, for regional projections from global climate models. (letter)

  10. Evaluation of Applicability of Global Solar Radiation Prediction Models for Kocaeli

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurullah ARSLANOĞLU

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Design and analyses of solar energy systems needs value of global solar radiation falling on the surface of the earth. In this study,  thirty relative sunshine duration based regression models in the literature for determining the monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface for Kocaeli were investigated. To indicate the performance of the models, the following statistical test methods are used: mean absolute bias error (MABE, mean bias error (MBE, mean absolute percent error (MAPE, mean percent error (MPE, root mean square error (RMSE. According to the statistical performance, Lewis model (Model 23, Model-18 (Jin et al. and Model 8 (Bahel et al. showed the best estimation of the global solar radiation on a horizontal surface for Kocaeli.

  11. Can the Discrepancy between Locally and Globally Derived Neutral Hydrogen Mass Functions be Explained by a Varying Value of M ⋆?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minchin, Robert F.

    2017-09-01

    I investigate whether it is possible to reconcile the recent Arecibo Legacy Fast Arecibo L-band Feed Array (ALFALFA) observation that the neutral hydrogen mass function (HIMF) across different galactic densities has the same, non-flat, faint-end slope, with observations of isolated galaxies and many galaxy groups that show their HIMFs to have flat faint-end slopes. I find that a fairly simple model in which the position of the knee in the mass function of each individual group is allowed to vary is able to account for both of these observations. If this model reflects reality, the ALFALFA results point to an interesting “conspiracy” whereby the differing group HIMFs always sum up to form global HIMFs with the same faint-end slope in different environments. More generally, this result implies that global environmental HIMFs do not necessarily reflect the HIMFs in individual groups belonging to that environment and cannot be used to directly measure variations in group-specific HIMFs with environment.

  12. Can the Discrepancy between Locally and Globally Derived Neutral Hydrogen Mass Functions be Explained by a Varying Value of M {sup *}?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Minchin, Robert F., E-mail: rminchin@naic.edu [Arecibo Observatory, Universities Space Research Association, HC3 Box 53995, Arecibo, PR 00612 (United States)

    2017-09-20

    I investigate whether it is possible to reconcile the recent Arecibo Legacy Fast Arecibo L-band Feed Array (ALFALFA) observation that the neutral hydrogen mass function (HIMF) across different galactic densities has the same, non-flat, faint-end slope, with observations of isolated galaxies and many galaxy groups that show their HIMFs to have flat faint-end slopes. I find that a fairly simple model in which the position of the knee in the mass function of each individual group is allowed to vary is able to account for both of these observations. If this model reflects reality, the ALFALFA results point to an interesting “conspiracy” whereby the differing group HIMFs always sum up to form global HIMFs with the same faint-end slope in different environments. More generally, this result implies that global environmental HIMFs do not necessarily reflect the HIMFs in individual groups belonging to that environment and cannot be used to directly measure variations in group-specific HIMFs with environment.

  13. Protein structure modeling and refinement by global optimization in CASP12.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Seung Hwan; Joung, InSuk; Flores-Canales, Jose C; Manavalan, Balachandran; Cheng, Qianyi; Heo, Seungryong; Kim, Jong Yun; Lee, Sun Young; Nam, Mikyung; Joo, Keehyoung; Lee, In-Ho; Lee, Sung Jong; Lee, Jooyoung

    2018-03-01

    For protein structure modeling in the CASP12 experiment, we have developed a new protocol based on our previous CASP11 approach. The global optimization method of conformational space annealing (CSA) was applied to 3 stages of modeling: multiple sequence-structure alignment, three-dimensional (3D) chain building, and side-chain re-modeling. For better template selection and model selection, we updated our model quality assessment (QA) method with the newly developed SVMQA (support vector machine for quality assessment). For 3D chain building, we updated our energy function by including restraints generated from predicted residue-residue contacts. New energy terms for the predicted secondary structure and predicted solvent accessible surface area were also introduced. For difficult targets, we proposed a new method, LEEab, where the template term played a less significant role than it did in LEE, complemented by increased contributions from other terms such as the predicted contact term. For TBM (template-based modeling) targets, LEE performed better than LEEab, but for FM targets, LEEab was better. For model refinement, we modified our CASP11 molecular dynamics (MD) based protocol by using explicit solvents and tuning down restraint weights. Refinement results from MD simulations that used a new augmented statistical energy term in the force field were quite promising. Finally, when using inaccurate information (such as the predicted contacts), it was important to use the Lorentzian function for which the maximal penalty arising from wrong information is always bounded. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Ringed Seal Search for Global Optimization via a Sensitive Search Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Younes Saadi

    Full Text Available The efficiency of a metaheuristic algorithm for global optimization is based on its ability to search and find the global optimum. However, a good search often requires to be balanced between exploration and exploitation of the search space. In this paper, a new metaheuristic algorithm called Ringed Seal Search (RSS is introduced. It is inspired by the natural behavior of the seal pup. This algorithm mimics the seal pup movement behavior and its ability to search and choose the best lair to escape predators. The scenario starts once the seal mother gives birth to a new pup in a birthing lair that is constructed for this purpose. The seal pup strategy consists of searching and selecting the best lair by performing a random walk to find a new lair. Affected by the sensitive nature of seals against external noise emitted by predators, the random walk of the seal pup takes two different search states, normal state and urgent state. In the normal state, the pup performs an intensive search between closely adjacent lairs; this movement is modeled via a Brownian walk. In an urgent state, the pup leaves the proximity area and performs an extensive search to find a new lair from sparse targets; this movement is modeled via a Levy walk. The switch between these two states is realized by the random noise emitted by predators. The algorithm keeps switching between normal and urgent states until the global optimum is reached. Tests and validations were performed using fifteen benchmark test functions to compare the performance of RSS with other baseline algorithms. The results show that RSS is more efficient than Genetic Algorithm, Particles Swarm Optimization and Cuckoo Search in terms of convergence rate to the global optimum. The RSS shows an improvement in terms of balance between exploration (extensive and exploitation (intensive of the search space. The RSS can efficiently mimic seal pups behavior to find best lair and provide a new algorithm to be

  15. Global sensitivity analysis of DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated forest ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiying Tian; Mohamed A. Youssef; Devendra M. Amatya; Eric D. Vance

    2014-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is a useful tool to understand process-based ecosystem models by identifying key parameters and processes controlling model predictions. This study reported a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated model for simulating water, carbon (C), and nitrogen (N) cycles and plant growth in lowland forests. The...

  16. A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models

    KAUST Repository

    Boas, Sonja E. M.

    2015-11-21

    Background Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such ‘black-box’ models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. Results To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. Conclusions We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all ‘black-box’ models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

  17. A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boas, Sonja E M; Navarro Jimenez, Maria I; Merks, Roeland M H; Blom, Joke G

    2015-11-21

    Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such 'black-box' models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all 'black-box' models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

  18. Global stability for infectious disease models that include immigration of infected individuals and delay in the incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chelsea Uggenti

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We begin with a detailed study of a delayed SI model of disease transmission with immigration into both classes. The incidence function allows for a nonlinear dependence on the infected population, including mass action and saturating incidence as special cases. Due to the immigration of infectives, there is no disease-free equilibrium and hence no basic reproduction number. We show there is a unique endemic equilibrium and that this equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable for all parameter values. The results include vector-style delay and latency-style delay. Next, we show that previous global stability results for an SEI model and an SVI model that include immigration of infectives and non-linear incidence but not delay can be extended to systems with vector-style delay and latency-style delay.

  19. Development of an Integrated Global Energy Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1999-01-01

    The primary objective of this research was to develop a forefront analysis tool for application to enhance understanding of long-term, global, nuclear-energy and nuclear-material futures. To this end, an existing economics-energy-environmental (E 3 ) model was adopted, modified, and elaborated to examine this problem in a multi-regional (13), long-term (approximately2,100) context. The E 3 model so developed was applied to create a Los Alamos presence in this E 3 area through ''niche analyses'' that provide input to the formulation of policies dealing with and shaping of nuclear-energy and nuclear-materials futures. Results from analyses using the E 3 model have been presented at a variety of national and international conferences and workshops. Through use of the E 3 model Los Alamos was afforded the opportunity to participate in a multi-national E 3 study team that is examining a range of global, long-term nuclear issues under the auspices of the IAEA during the 1998-99 period . Finally, the E 3 model developed under this LDRD project is being used as an important component in more recent Nuclear Material Management Systems (NMMS) project

  20. Global biogeographical pattern of ecosystem functional types derived from earth observation data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ivits, Eva; Cherlet, Michael; Horion, Stéphanie Marie Anne F

    2013-01-01

    correspondence of the EFTs to global climate and also to land use classification. The results show the great potential of Earth Observation derived parameters for the quantification of ecosystem functional dynamics and for providing reference status information for future assessments of ecosystem changes........ The association of the EFTs with existing climate and land cover classifications was demonstrated via Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA). The ordination indicated good description of the global environmental gradient by the EFTs, supporting the understanding of phenological and productivity dynamics...... of global ecosystems. Climatic constraints of vegetation growth explained 50% of variation in the phenological data along the EFTs showing that part of the variation in the global phenological gradient is not climate related but is unique to the Earth Observation derived variables. DCA demonstrated good...

  1. Global tropospheric ozone modeling: Quantifying errors due to grid resolution

    OpenAIRE

    Wild, Oliver; Prather, Michael J

    2006-01-01

    Ozone production in global chemical models is dependent on model resolution because ozone chemistry is inherently nonlinear, the timescales for chemical production are short, and precursors are artificially distributed over the spatial scale of the model grid. In this study we examine the sensitivity of ozone, its precursors, and its production to resolution by running a global chemical transport model at four different resolutions between T21 (5.6° × 5.6°) and T106 (1.1° × 1.1°) and by quant...

  2. Global stability of a two-mediums rumor spreading model with media coverage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Liang'an; Wang, Li; Song, Guoxiang

    2017-09-01

    Rumor spreading is a typical form of social communication and plays a significant role in social life, and media coverage has a great influence on the spread of rumor. In this paper, we present a new model with two media coverage to investigate the impact of the different mediums on rumor spreading. Then, we calculate the equilibria of the model and construct the reproduction number ℜ0. And we prove the global asymptotic stability of equilibria by using Lyapunov functions. Finally, we can conclude that the transition rate of the ignorants between two mediums has a direct effect on the scale of spreaders, and different media coverage has significant effects on the dynamics behaviors of rumor spreading.

  3. Prospective of Transformation of Current Models of the Global Pharmaceutical Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuriy Solodkovskyy

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available This article thoroughly analyzes the current state of the global pharmaceutical market, defines the key factors for its development and outlines the promising areas of transformation of existing business models of top companies. The forecasted data relating to the market development until 2015 have been investigated. The global, market, technological and organizational factors of transformation of modern model of the global pharmaceutical market have been identified.

  4. Parton distribution functions with QED corrections in the valon model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mottaghizadeh, Marzieh; Taghavi Shahri, Fatemeh; Eslami, Parvin

    2017-10-01

    The parton distribution functions (PDFs) with QED corrections are obtained by solving the QCD ⊗QED DGLAP evolution equations in the framework of the "valon" model at the next-to-leading-order QCD and the leading-order QED approximations. Our results for the PDFs with QED corrections in this phenomenological model are in good agreement with the newly related CT14QED global fits code [Phys. Rev. D 93, 114015 (2016), 10.1103/PhysRevD.93.114015] and APFEL (NNPDF2.3QED) program [Comput. Phys. Commun. 185, 1647 (2014), 10.1016/j.cpc.2014.03.007] in a wide range of x =[10-5,1 ] and Q2=[0.283 ,108] GeV2 . The model calculations agree rather well with those codes. In the latter, we proposed a new method for studying the symmetry breaking of the sea quark distribution functions inside the proton.

  5. Global Optimization Ensemble Model for Classification Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anwar, Hina; Qamar, Usman; Muzaffar Qureshi, Abdul Wahab

    2014-01-01

    Supervised learning is the process of data mining for deducing rules from training datasets. A broad array of supervised learning algorithms exists, every one of them with its own advantages and drawbacks. There are some basic issues that affect the accuracy of classifier while solving a supervised learning problem, like bias-variance tradeoff, dimensionality of input space, and noise in the input data space. All these problems affect the accuracy of classifier and are the reason that there is no global optimal method for classification. There is not any generalized improvement method that can increase the accuracy of any classifier while addressing all the problems stated above. This paper proposes a global optimization ensemble model for classification methods (GMC) that can improve the overall accuracy for supervised learning problems. The experimental results on various public datasets showed that the proposed model improved the accuracy of the classification models from 1% to 30% depending upon the algorithm complexity. PMID:24883382

  6. Global Optimization Ensemble Model for Classification Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hina Anwar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Supervised learning is the process of data mining for deducing rules from training datasets. A broad array of supervised learning algorithms exists, every one of them with its own advantages and drawbacks. There are some basic issues that affect the accuracy of classifier while solving a supervised learning problem, like bias-variance tradeoff, dimensionality of input space, and noise in the input data space. All these problems affect the accuracy of classifier and are the reason that there is no global optimal method for classification. There is not any generalized improvement method that can increase the accuracy of any classifier while addressing all the problems stated above. This paper proposes a global optimization ensemble model for classification methods (GMC that can improve the overall accuracy for supervised learning problems. The experimental results on various public datasets showed that the proposed model improved the accuracy of the classification models from 1% to 30% depending upon the algorithm complexity.

  7. Looking back to move forward on model validation: insights from a global model of agricultural land use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldos, Uris Lantz C; Hertel, Thomas W

    2013-01-01

    Global agricultural models are becoming indispensable in the debate over climate change impacts and mitigation policies. Therefore, it is becoming increasingly important to validate these models and identify critical areas for improvement. In this letter, we illustrate both the opportunities and the challenges in undertaking such model validation, using the SIMPLE model of global agriculture. We look back at the long run historical period 1961–2006 and, using a few key historical drivers—population, incomes and total factor productivity—we find that SIMPLE is able to accurately reproduce historical changes in cropland use, crop price, crop production and average crop yields at the global scale. Equally important is our investigation into how the specific assumptions embedded in many agricultural models will likely influence these results. We find that those global models which are largely biophysical—thereby ignoring the price responsiveness of demand and supply—are likely to understate changes in crop production, while failing to capture the changes in cropland use and crop price. Likewise, global models which incorporate economic responses, but do so based on limited time series estimates of these responses, are likely to understate land use change and overstate price changes. (letter)

  8. Comparison of a hybrid model to a global model of atmospheric pressure radio-frequency capacitive discharges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazzaroni, C; Lieberman, M A; Lichtenberg, A J; Chabert, P

    2012-01-01

    A one-dimensional hybrid analytical-numerical global model of atmospheric pressure radio-frequency (rf) driven capacitive discharges, previously developed, is compared with a basic global model. A helium feed gas with small admixtures of oxygen is studied. For the hybrid model, the electrical characteristics are calculated analytically as a current-driven homogeneous discharge. The electron power balance is solved analytically to determine a time-varying Maxwellian electron temperature, which oscillates on the rf timescale. Averaging over the rf period yields effective rate coefficients for gas phase activated processes. For the basic global model, the electron temperature is constant in time and the sheath physics is neglected. For both models, the particle balance relations for all species are integrated numerically to determine the equilibrium discharge parameters. Variations of discharge parameters with composition and rf power are determined and compared. The rate coefficients for electron-activated processes are strongly temperature dependent, leading to significantly larger neutral and charged particle densities for the hybrid model. For small devices, finite sheath widths limit the operating regimes to low O 2 fractions. This is captured by the hybrid model but cannot be predicted from the basic global model.

  9. Quantitative global sensitivity analysis of a biologically based dose-response pregnancy model for the thyroid endocrine system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lumen, Annie; McNally, Kevin; George, Nysia; Fisher, Jeffrey W; Loizou, George D

    2015-01-01

    A deterministic biologically based dose-response model for the thyroidal system in a near-term pregnant woman and the fetus was recently developed to evaluate quantitatively thyroid hormone perturbations. The current work focuses on conducting a quantitative global sensitivity analysis on this complex model to identify and characterize the sources and contributions of uncertainties in the predicted model output. The workflow and methodologies suitable for computationally expensive models, such as the Morris screening method and Gaussian Emulation processes, were used for the implementation of the global sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity indices, such as main, total and interaction effects, were computed for a screened set of the total thyroidal system descriptive model input parameters. Furthermore, a narrower sub-set of the most influential parameters affecting the model output of maternal thyroid hormone levels were identified in addition to the characterization of their overall and pair-wise parameter interaction quotients. The characteristic trends of influence in model output for each of these individual model input parameters over their plausible ranges were elucidated using Gaussian Emulation processes. Through global sensitivity analysis we have gained a better understanding of the model behavior and performance beyond the domains of observation by the simultaneous variation in model inputs over their range of plausible uncertainties. The sensitivity analysis helped identify parameters that determine the driving mechanisms of the maternal and fetal iodide kinetics, thyroid function and their interactions, and contributed to an improved understanding of the system modeled. We have thus demonstrated the use and application of global sensitivity analysis for a biologically based dose-response model for sensitive life-stages such as pregnancy that provides richer information on the model and the thyroidal system modeled compared to local sensitivity analysis.

  10. Quantitative global sensitivity analysis of a biologically based dose-response pregnancy model for the thyroid endocrine system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annie eLumen

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available A deterministic biologically based dose-response model for the thyroidal system in a near-term pregnant woman and the fetus was recently developed to evaluate quantitatively thyroid hormone perturbations. The current work focuses on conducting a quantitative global sensitivity analysis on this complex model to identify and characterize the sources and contributions of uncertainties in the predicted model output. The workflow and methodologies suitable for computationally expensive models, such as the Morris screening method and Gaussian Emulation processes, were used for the implementation of the global sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity indices, such as main, total and interaction effects, were computed for a screened set of the total thyroidal system descriptive model input parameters. Furthermore, a narrower sub-set of the most influential parameters affecting the model output of maternal thyroid hormone levels were identified in addition to the characterization of their overall and pair-wise parameter interaction quotients. The characteristic trends of influence in model output for each of these individual model input parameters over their plausible ranges were elucidated using Gaussian Emulation processes. Through global sensitivity analysis we have gained a better understanding of the model behavior and performance beyond the domains of observation by the simultaneous variation in model inputs over their range of plausible uncertainties. The sensitivity analysis helped identify parameters that determine the driving mechanisms of the maternal and fetal iodide kinetics, thyroid function and their interactions, and contributed to an improved understanding of the system modeled. We have thus demonstrated the use and application of global sensitivity analysis for a biologically based dose-response model for sensitive life-stages such as pregnancy that provides richer information on the model and the thyroidal system modeled compared to local

  11. Semi-empirical models for the estimation of clear sky solar global and direct normal irradiances in the tropics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janjai, S.; Sricharoen, K.; Pattarapanitchai, S.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → New semi-empirical models for predicting clear sky irradiance were developed. → The proposed models compare favorably with other empirical models. → Performance of proposed models is comparable with that of widely used physical models. → The proposed models have advantage over the physical models in terms of simplicity. -- Abstract: This paper presents semi-empirical models for estimating global and direct normal solar irradiances under clear sky conditions in the tropics. The models are based on a one-year period of clear sky global and direct normal irradiances data collected at three solar radiation monitoring stations in Thailand: Chiang Mai (18.78 o N, 98.98 o E) located in the North of the country, Nakhon Pathom (13.82 o N, 100.04 o E) in the Centre and Songkhla (7.20 o N, 100.60 o E) in the South. The models describe global and direct normal irradiances as functions of the Angstrom turbidity coefficient, the Angstrom wavelength exponent, precipitable water and total column ozone. The data of Angstrom turbidity coefficient, wavelength exponent and precipitable water were obtained from AERONET sunphotometers, and column ozone was retrieved from the OMI/AURA satellite. Model validation was accomplished using data from these three stations for the data periods which were not included in the model formulation. The models were also validated against an independent data set collected at Ubon Ratchathani (15.25 o N, 104.87 o E) in the Northeast. The global and direct normal irradiances calculated from the models and those obtained from measurements are in good agreement, with the root mean square difference (RMSD) of 7.5% for both global and direct normal irradiances. The performance of the models was also compared with that of other models. The performance of the models compared favorably with that of empirical models. Additionally, the accuracy of irradiances predicted from the proposed model are comparable with that obtained from some

  12. Recent results in the development of a global medium-energy nucleon-nucleus optical-model potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madland, D.G.

    1988-02-01

    Initial results are presented for the determination of a global medium-energy nucleon-nucleus phenomenological optical-model potential using a relativistic Schroedinger representation. The starting point for this work is the global phenomenological optical-model potential of Schwandt /ital et al./, which is based on measured elastic scattering cross sections and analyzing power for polarized protons ranging from 80 to 180 MeV. This potential is optimally modified to reproduce experimental proton reaction cross sections as a function of energy, while allowing only minimal deterioration in the fits to the elastic cross sections and analyzing powers. Further modifications in the absorptive potential were found necessary to extrapolate the modified potential to higher energies. The final potential is converted to a neutron-nucleus potential by use of standard Lane model assumptions and by accounting approximately for the Coulomb correction. Comparisons of measured and calculated proton reaction and neutron total cross sections are presented for 27 Al, 56 Fe, and 208 Pb. Medium-energy optical-model potentials for complex projectiles are briefly discussed in an appendix. 7 refs., 20 figs

  13. Global and 3D spatial assessment of neuroinflammation in rodent models of Multiple Sclerosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shashank Gupta

    Full Text Available Multiple Sclerosis (MS is a progressive autoimmune inflammatory and demyelinating disease of the central nervous system (CNS. T cells play a key role in the progression of neuroinflammation in MS and also in the experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE animal models for the disease. A technology for quantitative and 3 dimensional (3D spatial assessment of inflammation in this and other CNS inflammatory conditions is much needed. Here we present a procedure for 3D spatial assessment and global quantification of the development of neuroinflammation based on Optical Projection Tomography (OPT. Applying this approach to the analysis of rodent models of MS, we provide global quantitative data of the major inflammatory component as a function of the clinical course. Our data demonstrates a strong correlation between the development and progression of neuroinflammation and clinical disease in several mouse and a rat model of MS refining the information regarding the spatial dynamics of the inflammatory component in EAE. This method provides a powerful tool to investigate the effect of environmental and genetic forces and for assessing the therapeutic effects of drug therapy in animal models of MS and other neuroinflammatory/neurodegenerative disorders.

  14. Global river flood hazard maps: hydraulic modelling methods and appropriate uses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townend, Samuel; Smith, Helen; Molloy, James

    2014-05-01

    Flood hazard is not well understood or documented in many parts of the world. Consequently, the (re-)insurance sector now needs to better understand where the potential for considerable river flooding aligns with significant exposure. For example, international manufacturing companies are often attracted to countries with emerging economies, meaning that events such as the 2011 Thailand floods have resulted in many multinational businesses with assets in these regions incurring large, unexpected losses. This contribution addresses and critically evaluates the hydraulic methods employed to develop a consistent global scale set of river flood hazard maps, used to fill the knowledge gap outlined above. The basis of the modelling approach is an innovative, bespoke 1D/2D hydraulic model (RFlow) which has been used to model a global river network of over 5.3 million kilometres. Estimated flood peaks at each of these model nodes are determined using an empirically based rainfall-runoff approach linking design rainfall to design river flood magnitudes. The hydraulic model is used to determine extents and depths of floodplain inundation following river bank overflow. From this, deterministic flood hazard maps are calculated for several design return periods between 20-years and 1,500-years. Firstly, we will discuss the rationale behind the appropriate hydraulic modelling methods and inputs chosen to produce a consistent global scaled river flood hazard map. This will highlight how a model designed to work with global datasets can be more favourable for hydraulic modelling at the global scale and why using innovative techniques customised for broad scale use are preferable to modifying existing hydraulic models. Similarly, the advantages and disadvantages of both 1D and 2D modelling will be explored and balanced against the time, computer and human resources available, particularly when using a Digital Surface Model at 30m resolution. Finally, we will suggest some

  15. Synoptic, Global Mhd Model For The Solar Corona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Ofer; Sokolov, I. V.; Roussev, I. I.; Gombosi, T. I.

    2007-05-01

    The common techniques for mimic the solar corona heating and the solar wind acceleration in global MHD models are as follow. 1) Additional terms in the momentum and energy equations derived from the WKB approximation for the Alfv’en wave turbulence; 2) some empirical heat source in the energy equation; 3) a non-uniform distribution of the polytropic index, γ, used in the energy equation. In our model, we choose the latter approach. However, in order to get a more realistic distribution of γ, we use the empirical Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model to constrain the MHD solution. The WSA model provides the distribution of the asymptotic solar wind speed from the potential field approximation; therefore it also provides the distribution of the kinetic energy. Assuming that far from the Sun the total energy is dominated by the energy of the bulk motion and assuming the conservation of the Bernoulli integral, we can trace the total energy along a magnetic field line to the solar surface. On the surface the gravity is known and the kinetic energy is negligible. Therefore, we can get the surface distribution of γ as a function of the final speed originating from this point. By interpolation γ to spherically uniform value on the source surface, we use this spatial distribution of γ in the energy equation to obtain a self-consistent, steady state MHD solution for the solar corona. We present the model result for different Carrington Rotations.

  16. Sensory phenomena related to tics, obsessive-compulsive symptoms, and global functioning in Tourette syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kano, Yukiko; Matsuda, Natsumi; Nonaka, Maiko; Fujio, Miyuki; Kuwabara, Hitoshi; Kono, Toshiaki

    2015-10-01

    Sensory phenomena, including premonitory urges, are experienced by patients with Tourette syndrome (TS) and obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). The goal of the present study was to investigate such phenomena related to tics, obsessive-compulsive symptoms (OCS), and global functioning in Japanese patients with TS. Forty-one patients with TS were assessed using the University of São Paulo Sensory Phenomena Scale (USP-SPS), the Premonitory Urge for Tics Scale (PUTS), the Yale Global Tic Severity Scale (YGTSS), the Dimensional Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale (DY-BOCS), and the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) Scale. USP-SPS and PUTS total scores were significantly correlated with YGTSS total and vocal tics scores. Additionally, both sensory phenomena severity scores were significantly correlated with DY-BOCS total OCS scores. Of the six dimensional OCS scores, the USP-SPS scores were significantly correlated with measures of aggression and sexual/religious dimensions. Finally, the PUTS total scores were significantly and negatively correlated with GAF scores. By assessing premonitory urges and broader sensory phenomena, and by viewing OCS from a dimensional approach, this study provides significant insight into sensory phenomena related to tics, OCS, and global functioning in patients with TS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. A seawater desalination scheme for global hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, Naota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kakinuma, Kaoru; Kanae, Shinjiro

    2016-10-01

    Seawater desalination is a practical technology for providing fresh water to coastal arid regions. Indeed, the use of desalination is rapidly increasing due to growing water demand in these areas and decreases in production costs due to technological advances. In this study, we developed a model to estimate the areas where seawater desalination is likely to be used as a major water source and the likely volume of production. The model was designed to be incorporated into global hydrological models (GHMs) that explicitly include human water usage. The model requires spatially detailed information on climate, income levels, and industrial and municipal water use, which represent standard input/output data in GHMs. The model was applied to a specific historical year (2005) and showed fairly good reproduction of the present geographical distribution and national production of desalinated water in the world. The model was applied globally to two periods in the future (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) under three distinct socioeconomic conditions, i.e., SSP (shared socioeconomic pathway) 1, SSP2, and SSP3. The results indicate that the usage of seawater desalination will have expanded considerably in geographical extent, and that production will have increased by 1.4-2.1-fold in 2011-2040 compared to the present (from 2.8 × 109 m3 yr-1 in 2005 to 4.0-6.0 × 109 m3 yr-1), and 6.7-17.3-fold in 2041-2070 (from 18.7 to 48.6 × 109 m3 yr-1). The estimated global costs for production for each period are USD 1.1-10.6 × 109 (0.002-0.019 % of the total global GDP), USD 1.6-22.8 × 109 (0.001-0.020 %), and USD 7.5-183.9 × 109 (0.002-0.100 %), respectively. The large spreads in these projections are primarily attributable to variations within the socioeconomic scenarios.

  18. Activating Global Operating Models: The bridge from organization design to performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy Kates

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This article introduces the concept of activation and discusses its use in the implementation of global operating models by large multinational companies. We argue that five particular activators help set in motion the complex strategies and organizations required by global operating models.

  19. Global stability and pattern formation in a nonlocal diffusive Lotka-Volterra competition model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Wenjie; Shi, Junping; Wang, Mingxin

    2018-06-01

    A diffusive Lotka-Volterra competition model with nonlocal intraspecific and interspecific competition between species is formulated and analyzed. The nonlocal competition strength is assumed to be determined by a diffusion kernel function to model the movement pattern of the biological species. It is shown that when there is no nonlocal intraspecific competition, the dynamics properties of nonlocal diffusive competition problem are similar to those of classical diffusive Lotka-Volterra competition model regardless of the strength of nonlocal interspecific competition. Global stability of nonnegative constant equilibria are proved using Lyapunov or upper-lower solution methods. On the other hand, strong nonlocal intraspecific competition increases the system spatiotemporal dynamic complexity. For the weak competition case, the nonlocal diffusive competition model may possess nonconstant positive equilibria for some suitably large nonlocal intraspecific competition coefficients.

  20. Modelling stratospheric chemistry in a global three-dimensional chemical transport model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rummukainen, M [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Sodankylae (Finland). Sodankylae Observatory

    1996-12-31

    Numerical modelling of atmospheric chemistry aims to increase the understanding of the characteristics, the behavior and the evolution of atmospheric composition. These topics are of utmost importance in the study of climate change. The multitude of gases and particulates making up the atmosphere and the complicated interactions between them affect radiation transfer, atmospheric dynamics, and the impacts of anthropogenic and natural emissions. Chemical processes are fundamental factors in global warming, ozone depletion and atmospheric pollution problems in general. Much of the prevailing work on modelling stratospheric chemistry has so far been done with 1- and 2-dimensional models. Carrying an extensive chemistry parameterisation in a model with high spatial and temporal resolution is computationally heavy. Today, computers are becoming powerful enough to allow going over to 3-dimensional models. In order to concentrate on the chemistry, many Chemical Transport Models (CTM) are still run off-line, i.e. with precalculated and archived meteorology and radiation. In chemistry simulations, the archived values drive the model forward in time, without interacting with the chemical evolution. This is an approach that has been adopted in stratospheric chemistry modelling studies at the Finnish Meteorological Institute. In collaboration with the University of Oslo, a development project was initiated in 1993 to prepare a stratospheric chemistry parameterisation, fit for global 3-dimensional modelling. This article presents the parameterisation approach. Selected results are shown from basic photochemical simulations

  1. Modelling stratospheric chemistry in a global three-dimensional chemical transport model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rummukainen, M. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Sodankylae (Finland). Sodankylae Observatory

    1995-12-31

    Numerical modelling of atmospheric chemistry aims to increase the understanding of the characteristics, the behavior and the evolution of atmospheric composition. These topics are of utmost importance in the study of climate change. The multitude of gases and particulates making up the atmosphere and the complicated interactions between them affect radiation transfer, atmospheric dynamics, and the impacts of anthropogenic and natural emissions. Chemical processes are fundamental factors in global warming, ozone depletion and atmospheric pollution problems in general. Much of the prevailing work on modelling stratospheric chemistry has so far been done with 1- and 2-dimensional models. Carrying an extensive chemistry parameterisation in a model with high spatial and temporal resolution is computationally heavy. Today, computers are becoming powerful enough to allow going over to 3-dimensional models. In order to concentrate on the chemistry, many Chemical Transport Models (CTM) are still run off-line, i.e. with precalculated and archived meteorology and radiation. In chemistry simulations, the archived values drive the model forward in time, without interacting with the chemical evolution. This is an approach that has been adopted in stratospheric chemistry modelling studies at the Finnish Meteorological Institute. In collaboration with the University of Oslo, a development project was initiated in 1993 to prepare a stratospheric chemistry parameterisation, fit for global 3-dimensional modelling. This article presents the parameterisation approach. Selected results are shown from basic photochemical simulations

  2. Analytic properties of the Ruelle ζ-function for mean field models of phase transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallerberg, Sarah; Just, Wolfram; Radons, Guenter

    2005-01-01

    We evaluate by analytical means the Ruelle ζ-function for a spin model with global coupling. The implications of the ferromagnetic phase transitions for the analytical properties of the ζ-function are discussed in detail. In the paramagnetic phase the ζ-function develops a single branch point. In the low-temperature regime two branch points appear which correspond to the ferromagnetic state and the metastable state. The results are typical for any Ginsburg-Landau-type phase transition

  3. Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Brogaard, Sara; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

    2016-01-01

    We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS

  4. Model of global evaluation for energetic resources; Modelo de avaliacao global de recursos energeticos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fujii, Ricardo Junqueira; Udaeta, Miguel Edgar Morales; Galvao, Luiz Claudio Ribeiro [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Dept. de Energia e Automacao Eletricas. Grupo de Energia]. E-mail: ricardo_fujii@pea.usp.br; daeta@pea.usp.br; lcgalvao@pea.usp.br

    2006-07-01

    The traditional energy planning usually takes into account the technical economical costs, considered alongside environmental and a few political restraints; however, there is a lack of methods to evenly assess environmental, economical, social and political costs. This work tries to change such scenario by elaborating a model to characterize an energy resource in all four dimensions - environmental, political, social and economical - in an integrated view. The model aims at two objectives: provide a method to assess the global cost of the energy resource and estimate its potential considering the limitations provided by these dimensions. To minimize the complexity of the integration process, the model strongly recommends the use of the Full Cost Accounting - FCA - method to assess the costs and benefits from any given resource. The FCA allows considering quantitative and qualitative costs, reducing the need of quantitative data, which are limited in some cases. The model has been applied in the characterization of the region of Aracatuba, located in the west part of the state of Sao Paulo - Brazil. The results showed that the potential of renewable sources are promising, especially when the global costs are considered. Some resources, in spite of being economically attractive, don't provide an acceptable global cost. It became clear that the model is a valuable tool when the conventional tools fail to address many issues, especially the need of an integrated view on the planning process; the results from this model can be applied in a portfolio selection method to evaluate the best options for a power system expansion. It has to be noticed that the usefulness of this model can be increased when adopted with a method to analyze demand side management measures, thus offering a complete set of possible choices of energy options for the decision maker. (author)

  5. Existence of global solutions to reaction-diffusion systems via a Lyapunov functional

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Said Kouachi

    2001-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to construct polynomial functionals (according to solutions of the coupled reaction-diffusion equations which give $L^{p}$-bounds for solutions. When the reaction terms are sufficiently regular, using the well known regularizing effect, we deduce the existence of global solutions. These functionals are obtained independently of work done by Malham and Xin [11].

  6. Challenges in Modeling of the Global Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janjic, Zavisa; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Vasic, Ratko; Black, Tom

    2015-04-01

    ") with significant amplitudes can develop. Due to their large scales, that are comparable to the scales of the dominant Rossby waves, such fictitious solutions are hard to identify and remove. Another new challenge on the global scale is that the limit of validity of the hydrostatic approximation is rapidly being approached. Having in mind the sensitivity of extended deterministic forecasts to small disturbances, we may need global non-hydrostatic models sooner than we think. The unified Non-hydrostatic Multi-scale Model (NMMB) that is being developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as a part of the new NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) will be discussed as an example. The non-hydrostatic dynamics were designed in such a way as to avoid over-specification. The global version is run on the latitude-longitude grid, and the polar filter selectively slows down the waves that would otherwise be unstable. The model formulation has been successfully tested on various scales. A global forecasting system based on the NMMB has been run in order to test and tune the model. The skill of the medium range forecasts produced by the NMMB is comparable to that of other major medium range models. The computational efficiency of the global NMMB on parallel computers is good.

  7. Numerical Simulation of Hydrogen Combustion: Global Reaction Model and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yun [School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an (China); Department of Mechanical, Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY (United States); Liu, Yinhe, E-mail: yinheliu@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an (China)

    2017-11-20

    Due to the complexity of modeling the combustion process in nuclear power plants, the global mechanisms are preferred for numerical simulation. To quickly perform the highly resolved simulations with limited processing resources of large-scale hydrogen combustion, a method based on thermal theory was developed to obtain kinetic parameters of global reaction mechanism of hydrogen–air combustion in a wide range. The calculated kinetic parameters at lower hydrogen concentration (C{sub hydrogen} < 20%) were validated against the results obtained from experimental measurements in a container and combustion test facility. In addition, the numerical data by the global mechanism (C{sub hydrogen} > 20%) were compared with the results by detailed mechanism. Good agreement between the model prediction and the experimental data was achieved, and the comparison between simulation results by the detailed mechanism and the global reaction mechanism show that the present calculated global mechanism has excellent predictable capabilities for a wide range of hydrogen–air mixtures.

  8. Numerical Simulation of Hydrogen Combustion: Global Reaction Model and Validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yun; Liu, Yinhe

    2017-01-01

    Due to the complexity of modeling the combustion process in nuclear power plants, the global mechanisms are preferred for numerical simulation. To quickly perform the highly resolved simulations with limited processing resources of large-scale hydrogen combustion, a method based on thermal theory was developed to obtain kinetic parameters of global reaction mechanism of hydrogen–air combustion in a wide range. The calculated kinetic parameters at lower hydrogen concentration (C hydrogen < 20%) were validated against the results obtained from experimental measurements in a container and combustion test facility. In addition, the numerical data by the global mechanism (C hydrogen > 20%) were compared with the results by detailed mechanism. Good agreement between the model prediction and the experimental data was achieved, and the comparison between simulation results by the detailed mechanism and the global reaction mechanism show that the present calculated global mechanism has excellent predictable capabilities for a wide range of hydrogen–air mixtures.

  9. Global water balances reconstructed by multi-model offline simulations of land surface models under GSWP3 (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oki, T.; KIM, H.; Ferguson, C. R.; Dirmeyer, P.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2013-12-01

    As the climate warms, the frequency and severity of flood and drought events is projected to increase. Understanding the role that the land surface will play in reinforcing or diminishing these extremes at regional scales will become critical. In fact, the current development path from atmospheric (GCM) to coupled atmosphere-ocean (AOGCM) to fully-coupled dynamic earth system models (ESMs) has brought new awareness to the climate modeling community of the abundance of uncertainty in land surface parameterizations. One way to test the representativeness of a land surface scheme is to do so in off-line (uncoupled) mode with controlled, high quality meteorological forcing. When multiple land schemes are run in-parallel (with the same forcing data), an inter-comparison of their outputs can provide the basis for model confidence estimates and future model refinements. In 2003, the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 2 (GSWP2) provided the first global multi-model analysis of land surface state variables and fluxes. It spanned the decade of 1986-1995. While it was state-of-the art at the time, physical schemes have since been enhanced, a number of additional processes and components in the water-energy-eco-systems nexus can now be simulated, , and the availability of global, long-term observationally-based datasets that can be used for forcing and validating models has grown. Today, the data exists to support century-scale off-line experiments. The ongoing follow-on to GSWP2, named GSWP3, capitalizes on these new feasibilities and model functionalities. The project's cornerstone is its century-scale (1901-2010), 3-hourly, 0.5° meteorological forcing dataset that has been dynamically downscaled from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis and bias-corrected using monthly Climate Research Unit (CRU) temperature and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation data. However, GSWP3 also has an important long-term future climate component that spans the 21st century

  10. Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

    2016-04-01

    This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support

  11. Modeling of reservoir operation in UNH global hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiklomanov, Alexander; Prusevich, Alexander; Frolking, Steve; Glidden, Stanley; Lammers, Richard; Wisser, Dominik

    2015-04-01

    Climate is changing and river flow is an integrated characteristic reflecting numerous environmental processes and their changes aggregated over large areas. Anthropogenic impacts on the river flow, however, can significantly exceed the changes associated with climate variability. Besides of irrigation, reservoirs and dams are one of major anthropogenic factor affecting streamflow. They distort hydrological regime of many rivers by trapping of freshwater runoff, modifying timing of river discharge and increasing the evaporation rate. Thus, reservoirs is an integral part of the global hydrological system and their impacts on rivers have to be taken into account for better quantification and understanding of hydrological changes. We developed a new technique, which was incorporated into WBM-TrANS model (Water Balance Model-Transport from Anthropogenic and Natural Systems) to simulate river routing through large reservoirs and natural lakes based on information available from freely accessible databases such as GRanD (the Global Reservoir and Dam database) or NID (National Inventory of Dams for US). Different formulations were applied for unregulated spillway dams and lakes, and for 4 types of regulated reservoirs, which were subdivided based on main purpose including generic (multipurpose), hydropower generation, irrigation and water supply, and flood control. We also incorporated rules for reservoir fill up and draining at the times of construction and decommission based on available data. The model were tested for many reservoirs of different size and types located in various climatic conditions using several gridded meteorological data sets as model input and observed daily and monthly discharge data from GRDC (Global Runoff Data Center), USGS Water Data (US Geological Survey), and UNH archives. The best results with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient in the range of 0.5-0.9 were obtained for temperate zone of Northern Hemisphere where most of large

  12. Systems-level analysis of age-related macular degeneration reveals global biomarkers and phenotype-specific functional networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a leading cause of blindness that affects the central region of the retinal pigmented epithelium (RPE), choroid, and neural retina. Initially characterized by an accumulation of sub-RPE deposits, AMD leads to progressive retinal degeneration, and in advanced cases, irreversible vision loss. Although genetic analysis, animal models, and cell culture systems have yielded important insights into AMD, the molecular pathways underlying AMD's onset and progression remain poorly delineated. We sought to better understand the molecular underpinnings of this devastating disease by performing the first comparative transcriptome analysis of AMD and normal human donor eyes. Methods RPE-choroid and retina tissue samples were obtained from a common cohort of 31 normal, 26 AMD, and 11 potential pre-AMD human donor eyes. Transcriptome profiles were generated for macular and extramacular regions, and statistical and bioinformatic methods were employed to identify disease-associated gene signatures and functionally enriched protein association networks. Selected genes of high significance were validated using an independent donor cohort. Results We identified over 50 annotated genes enriched in cell-mediated immune responses that are globally over-expressed in RPE-choroid AMD phenotypes. Using a machine learning model and a second donor cohort, we show that the top 20 global genes are predictive of AMD clinical diagnosis. We also discovered functionally enriched gene sets in the RPE-choroid that delineate the advanced AMD phenotypes, neovascular AMD and geographic atrophy. Moreover, we identified a graded increase of transcript levels in the retina related to wound response, complement cascade, and neurogenesis that strongly correlates with decreased levels of phototransduction transcripts and increased AMD severity. Based on our findings, we assembled protein-protein interactomes that highlight functional networks likely to be

  13. A Unified Model for Methylmercury Formation and Bioaccumulation in the Global Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Schartup, A. T.; Soerensen, A.; Dutkiewicz, S.; Sunderland, E. M.

    2017-12-01

    Marine fish consumption is the main exposure pathway for methylmercury (MeHg), a neurotoxin, in many countries. The Hg in the ocean is mainly from atmospheric deposition in inorganic forms. How the deposited Hg is methylated and accumulated in biota remain an open question. We develop a 3D model (MITgcm) for MeHg formation and bioaccumulation in the global ocean and evaluate the driving factors. The model is based on a previous published inorganic Hg model and is coupled with the bioaccumulation model for marine methylmercury (BAM3) with ocean biogeochemistry from DARWIN model. We develop a unified scheme that scales methylation by microbe activity and assumes demethylation a function of short wave radiation and temperature. The model result agrees well with currently available observations at the 0-100 m (mod.: 43±52 fM vs obs.: 69±67 fM, 1 fM = 10-15 mol/L), 500 m (360±280 fM vs 340±260 fM), and 1000 m depth (260±170 fM vs 290±210 fM). In the surface ocean, we find the MeHg concentrations are a function of latitude, resulting from photodemethylation. The model reproduces the high concentrations observed over the sub-thermocline of Pacific Subarctic Gyre, which is associated with active microbe activity. On the other hand, both the model and observations suggest low concentrations over oligotrophic regions such as Indian Ocean Gyre. In the tropical oceans, the model predicts the highest MeHg concentrations, consistent with observation, and it is caused by the overlapping high atmospheric deposition and active microbe activities. The model captures the high concentrations in the subsurface of the Arctic and Southern Ocean where low temperature slows down abiotic demethylation. The modeled global average MeHg concentration in phytoplankton is 2.0 ng/g (by wet weight), within the same range of observations. High concentrations are modeled over tropical and high-latitude regions due to the dominance of small sized prochlorococcus and high seawater concentrations

  14. Assessment of the Global and Regional Land Hydrosphere and Its Impact on the Balance of the Geophysical Excitation Function of Polar Motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wińska, Małgorzata; Nastula, Jolanta; Kołaczek, Barbara

    2016-02-01

    The impact of continental hydrological loading from land water, snow and ice on polar motion excitation, calculated as hydrological angular momentum (HAM), is difficult to estimate, and not as much is known about it as about atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and oceanic angular momentum (OAM). In this paper, regional hydrological excitations to polar motion are investigated using monthly terrestrial water storage data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission and from the five models of land hydrology. The results show that the areas where the variance shows large variability are similar for the different models of land hydrology and for the GRACE data. Areas which have a small amplitude on the maps make an important contribution to the global hydrological excitation function of polar motion. The comparison of geodetic residuals and global hydrological excitation functions of polar motion shows that none of the hydrological excitation has enough energy to significantly improve the agreement between the observed geodetic excitation and geophysical ones.

  15. Space Observations for Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasool, S. I.

    1991-01-01

    There is now compelling evidence that man's activities are changing both the composition of the atmospheric and the global landscape quite drastically. The consequences of these changes on the global climate of the 21st century is currently a hotly debated subject. Global models of a coupled Earth-ocean-atmosphere system are still very primitive and progress in this area appears largely data limited, specially over the global biosphere. A concerted effort on monitoring biospheric functions on scales from pixels to global and days to decades needs to be coordinated on an international scale in order to address the questions related to global change. An international program of space observations and ground research was described.

  16. Global Information Enterprise (GIE) Modeling and Simulation (GIESIM)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bell, Paul

    2005-01-01

    ... AND S) toolkits into the Global Information Enterprise (GIE) Modeling and Simulation (GIESim) framework to create effective user analysis of candidate communications architectures and technologies...

  17. Global asymptotic stability of density dependent integral population projection models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Townley, Stuart

    2012-02-01

    Many stage-structured density dependent populations with a continuum of stages can be naturally modeled using nonlinear integral projection models. In this paper, we study a trichotomy of global stability result for a class of density dependent systems which include a Platte thistle model. Specifically, we identify those systems parameters for which zero is globally asymptotically stable, parameters for which there is a positive asymptotically stable equilibrium, and parameters for which there is no asymptotically stable equilibrium. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Modeling Global Urbanization Supported by Nighttime Light Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Urbanization, a major driver of global change, profoundly impacts our physical and social world, for example, altering carbon cycling and climate. Understanding these consequences for better scientific insights and effective decision-making unarguably requires accurate information on urban extent and its spatial distributions. In this study, we developed a cluster-based method to estimate the optimal thresholds and map urban extents from the nighttime light remote sensing data, extended this method to the global domain by developing a computational method (parameterization) to estimate the key parameters in the cluster-based method, and built a consistent 20-year global urban map series to evaluate the time-reactive nature of global urbanization (e.g. 2000 in Fig. 1). Supported by urban maps derived from nightlights remote sensing data and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework to project future urban expansion by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model. With the models calibrated and validated using historical data, we explored urban growth at the grid level (1-km) over the next two decades under a number of socio-economic scenarios. The derived spatiotemporal information of historical and potential future urbanization will be of great value with practical implications for developing adaptation and risk management measures for urban infrastructure, transportation, energy, and water systems when considered together with other factors such as climate variability and change, and high impact weather events.

  19. A global high-resolution model experiment on the predictability of the atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judt, F.

    2016-12-01

    Forecasting high-impact weather phenomena is one of the most important aspects of numerical weather prediction (NWP). Over the last couple of years, a tremendous increase in computing power has facilitated the advent of global convection-resolving NWP models, which allow for the seamless prediction of weather from local to planetary scales. Unfortunately, the predictability of specific meteorological phenomena in these models is not very well known. This raises questions about which forecast problems are potentially tractable, and what is the value of global convection-resolving model predictions for the end user. To address this issue, we use the Yellowstone supercomputer to conduct a global high-resolution predictability experiment with the recently developed Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). The computing power of Yellowstone enables the model to run at a globally uniform resolution of 4 km with 55 vertical levels (>2 billion grid cells). These simulations, which require 3 million core-hours for the entire experiment, allow for the explicit treatment of organized deep moist convection (i.e., thunderstorm systems). Resolving organized deep moist convection alleviates grave limitations of previous predictability studies, which either used high-resolution limited-area models or global simulations with coarser grids and cumulus parameterization. By computing the error growth characteristics in a set of "identical twin" model runs, the experiment will clarify the intrinsic predictability limits of atmospheric phenomena on a wide range of scales, from severe thunderstorms to global-scale wind patterns that affect the distribution of tropical rainfall. Although a major task by itself, this study is intended to be exploratory work for a future predictability experiment going beyond of what has so far been feasible. We hope to use CISL's new Cheyenne supercomputer to conduct a similar predictability experiments on a global mesh with 1-2 km resolution. This

  20. Matérn-based nonstationary cross-covariance models for global processes

    KAUST Repository

    Jun, Mikyoung

    2014-07-01

    Many spatial processes in environmental applications, such as climate variables and climate model errors on a global scale, exhibit complex nonstationary dependence structure, in not only their marginal covariance but also their cross-covariance. Flexible cross-covariance models for processes on a global scale are critical for an accurate description of each spatial process as well as the cross-dependences between them and also for improved predictions. We propose various ways to produce cross-covariance models, based on the Matérn covariance model class, that are suitable for describing prominent nonstationary characteristics of the global processes. In particular, we seek nonstationary versions of Matérn covariance models whose smoothness parameters vary over space, coupled with a differential operators approach for modeling large-scale nonstationarity. We compare their performance to the performance of some existing models in terms of the aic and spatial predictions in two applications: joint modeling of surface temperature and precipitation, and joint modeling of errors in climate model ensembles. © 2014 Elsevier Inc.

  1. Forward Modeling of Carbonate Proxy Data from Planktonic Foraminifera using Oxygen Isotope Tracers in a Global Ocean Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Gavin A.

    1999-01-01

    The distribution and variation of oxygen isotopes in seawater are calculated using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global ocean model. Simple ecological models are used to estimate the planktonic foraminiferal abundance as a function of depth, column temperature, season, light intensity, and density stratification. These models are combined to forward model isotopic signals recorded in calcareous ocean sediment. The sensitivity of the results to the changes in foraminiferal ecology, secondary calcification, and dissolution are also examined. Simulated present-day isotopic values for ecology relevant for multiple species compare well with core-top data. Hindcasts of sea surface temperature and salinity are made from time series of the modeled carbonate isotope values as the model climate changes. Paleoclimatic inferences from these carbonate isotope records are strongly affected by erroneous assumptions concerning the covariations of temperature, salinity, and delta (sup 18)O(sub w). Habitat-imposed biases are less important, although errors due to temperature-dependent abundances can be significant.

  2. Combined constraints on global ocean primary production using observations and models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Hashioka, Taketo; Quéré, Corinne Le

    2013-09-01

    production is at the base of the marine food web and plays a central role for global biogeochemical cycles. Yet global ocean primary production is known to only a factor of 2, with previous estimates ranging from 38 to 65 Pg C yr-1 and no formal uncertainty analysis. Here, we present an improved global ocean biogeochemistry model that includes a mechanistic representation of photosynthesis and a new observational database of net primary production (NPP) in the ocean. We combine the model and observations to constrain particulate NPP in the ocean with statistical metrics. The PlankTOM5.3 model includes a new photosynthesis formulation with a dynamic representation of iron-light colimitation, which leads to a considerable improvement of the interannual variability of surface chlorophyll. The database includes a consistent set of 50,050 measurements of 14C primary production. The model best reproduces observations when global NPP is 58 ± 7 Pg C yr-1, with a most probable value of 56 Pg C yr-1. The most probable value is robust to the model used. The uncertainty represents 95% confidence intervals. It considers all random errors in the model and observations, but not potential biases in the observations. We show that tropical regions (23°S-23°N) contribute half of the global NPP, while NPPs in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres are approximately equal in spite of the larger ocean area in the South.

  3. Transport of nutrients from land to sea: Global modeling approaches and uncertainty analyses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beusen, A.H.W.

    2014-01-01

    This thesis presents four examples of global models developed as part of the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). They describe different components of global biogeochemical cycles of the nutrients nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and silicon (Si), with a focus on approaches to

  4. Towards systematic evaluation of crop model outputs for global land-use models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leclere, David; Azevedo, Ligia B.; Skalský, Rastislav; Balkovič, Juraj; Havlík, Petr

    2016-04-01

    Land provides vital socioeconomic resources to the society, however at the cost of large environmental degradations. Global integrated models combining high resolution global gridded crop models (GGCMs) and global economic models (GEMs) are increasingly being used to inform sustainable solution for agricultural land-use. However, little effort has yet been done to evaluate and compare the accuracy of GGCM outputs. In addition, GGCM datasets require a large amount of parameters whose values and their variability across space are weakly constrained: increasing the accuracy of such dataset has a very high computing cost. Innovative evaluation methods are required both to ground credibility to the global integrated models, and to allow efficient parameter specification of GGCMs. We propose an evaluation strategy for GGCM datasets in the perspective of use in GEMs, illustrated with preliminary results from a novel dataset (the Hypercube) generated by the EPIC GGCM and used in the GLOBIOM land use GEM to inform on present-day crop yield, water and nutrient input needs for 16 crops x 15 management intensities, at a spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. We adopt the following principle: evaluation should provide a transparent diagnosis of model adequacy for its intended use. We briefly describe how the Hypercube data is generated and how it articulates with GLOBIOM in order to transparently identify the performances to be evaluated, as well as the main assumptions and data processing involved. Expected performances include adequately representing the sub-national heterogeneity in crop yield and input needs: i) in space, ii) across crop species, and iii) across management intensities. We will present and discuss measures of these expected performances and weight the relative contribution of crop model, input data and data processing steps in performances. We will also compare obtained yield gaps and main yield-limiting factors against the M3 dataset. Next steps include

  5. Modelling the Evolution of Sea Spray Droplets on a Global Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staniec, A.; Vlahos, P.; Monahan, E. C.

    2017-12-01

    Sea spray droplets are an important mechanism for the transport of moisture, heat, and organic material between the ocean and the atmosphere. Spume droplets are the largest of the size spectrum and as such have the potential to transport significant amounts of energy and gases despite their generally short residence time in the atmosphere. A model is developed based on the physical parameterizations from Andreas et al. (1995, 2005)and a range of spume generation functions, coupled with a biogeochemical exchange model for gases developed here to examine the equilibrium temperature and gas exchange of spume droplets under representative open ocean conditions. The modelling approach uses micro-physics to simulate the expected changes to the droplet as it equilibrates with the atmospheric temperature and relative humidity. The effect of temperature differentials and relative humidity variations is explored. A global approach is simulated by using average summer and winter values for SST, salinity, and air temperature throughout the various ocean basins.

  6. Global Land Use Regression Model for Nitrogen Dioxide Air Pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larkin, Andrew; Geddes, Jeffrey A; Martin, Randall V; Xiao, Qingyang; Liu, Yang; Marshall, Julian D; Brauer, Michael; Hystad, Perry

    2017-06-20

    Nitrogen dioxide is a common air pollutant with growing evidence of health impacts independent of other common pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter. However, the worldwide distribution of NO 2 exposure and associated impacts on health is still largely uncertain. To advance global exposure estimates we created a global nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) land use regression model for 2011 using annual measurements from 5,220 air monitors in 58 countries. The model captured 54% of global NO 2 variation, with a mean absolute error of 3.7 ppb. Regional performance varied from R 2 = 0.42 (Africa) to 0.67 (South America). Repeated 10% cross-validation using bootstrap sampling (n = 10,000) demonstrated a robust performance with respect to air monitor sampling in North America, Europe, and Asia (adjusted R 2 within 2%) but not for Africa and Oceania (adjusted R 2 within 11%) where NO 2 monitoring data are sparse. The final model included 10 variables that captured both between and within-city spatial gradients in NO 2 concentrations. Variable contributions differed between continental regions, but major roads within 100 m and satellite-derived NO 2 were consistently the strongest predictors. The resulting model can be used for global risk assessments and health studies, particularly in countries without existing NO 2 monitoring data or models.

  7. Model-data fusion across ecosystems: from multisite optimizations to global simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuppel, S.; Peylin, P.; Maignan, F.; Chevallier, F.; Kiely, G.; Montagnani, L.; Cescatti, A.

    2014-11-01

    This study uses a variational data assimilation framework to simultaneously constrain a global ecosystem model with eddy covariance measurements of daily net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and latent heat (LE) fluxes from a large number of sites grouped in seven plant functional types (PFTs). It is an attempt to bridge the gap between the numerous site-specific parameter optimization works found in the literature and the generic parameterization used by most land surface models within each PFT. The present multisite approach allows deriving PFT-generic sets of optimized parameters enhancing the agreement between measured and simulated fluxes at most of the sites considered, with performances often comparable to those of the corresponding site-specific optimizations. Besides reducing the PFT-averaged model-data root-mean-square difference (RMSD) and the associated daily output uncertainty, the optimization improves the simulated CO2 balance at tropical and temperate forests sites. The major site-level NEE adjustments at the seasonal scale are reduced amplitude in C3 grasslands and boreal forests, increased seasonality in temperate evergreen forests, and better model-data phasing in temperate deciduous broadleaf forests. Conversely, the poorer performances in tropical evergreen broadleaf forests points to deficiencies regarding the modelling of phenology and soil water stress for this PFT. An evaluation with data-oriented estimates of photosynthesis (GPP - gross primary productivity) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) rates indicates distinctively improved simulations of both gross fluxes. The multisite parameter sets are then tested against CO2 concentrations measured at 53 locations around the globe, showing significant adjustments of the modelled seasonality of atmospheric CO2 concentration, whose relevance seems PFT-dependent, along with an improved interannual variability. Lastly, a global-scale evaluation with remote sensing NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index

  8. Preparing the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) for global retrospective air quality modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    The US EPA has a plan to leverage recent advances in meteorological modeling to develop a "Next-Generation" air quality modeling system that will allow consistent modeling of problems from global to local scale. The meteorological model of choice is the Model for Predic...

  9. GLEAM version 3: Global Land Evaporation Datasets and Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martens, B.; Miralles, D. G.; Lievens, H.; van der Schalie, R.; de Jeu, R.; Fernandez-Prieto, D.; Verhoest, N.

    2015-12-01

    Terrestrial evaporation links energy, water and carbon cycles over land and is therefore a key variable of the climate system. However, the global-scale magnitude and variability of the flux, and the sensitivity of the underlying physical process to changes in environmental factors, are still poorly understood due to limitations in in situ measurements. As a result, several methods have risen to estimate global patterns of land evaporation from satellite observations. However, these algorithms generally differ in their approach to model evaporation, resulting in large differences in their estimates. One of these methods is GLEAM, the Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology. GLEAM estimates terrestrial evaporation based on daily satellite observations of meteorological variables, vegetation characteristics and soil moisture. Since the publication of the first version of the algorithm (2011), the model has been widely applied to analyse trends in the water cycle and land-atmospheric feedbacks during extreme hydrometeorological events. A third version of the GLEAM global datasets is foreseen by the end of 2015. Given the relevance of having a continuous and reliable record of global-scale evaporation estimates for climate and hydrological research, the establishment of an online data portal to host these data to the public is also foreseen. In this new release of the GLEAM datasets, different components of the model have been updated, with the most significant change being the revision of the data assimilation algorithm. In this presentation, we will highlight the most important changes of the methodology and present three new GLEAM datasets and their validation against in situ observations and an alternative dataset of terrestrial evaporation (ERA-Land). Results of the validation exercise indicate that the magnitude and the spatiotemporal variability of the modelled evaporation agree reasonably well with the estimates of ERA-Land and the in situ

  10. An efficient computational method for global sensitivity analysis and its application to tree growth modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Qiong-Li; Cournède, Paul-Henry; Mathieu, Amélie

    2012-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis has a key role to play in the design and parameterisation of functional–structural plant growth models which combine the description of plant structural development (organogenesis and geometry) and functional growth (biomass accumulation and allocation). We are particularly interested in this study in Sobol's method which decomposes the variance of the output of interest into terms due to individual parameters but also to interactions between parameters. Such information is crucial for systems with potentially high levels of non-linearity and interactions between processes, like plant growth. However, the computation of Sobol's indices relies on Monte Carlo sampling and re-sampling, whose costs can be very high, especially when model evaluation is also expensive, as for tree models. In this paper, we thus propose a new method to compute Sobol's indices inspired by Homma–Saltelli, which improves slightly their use of model evaluations, and then derive for this generic type of computational methods an estimator of the error estimation of sensitivity indices with respect to the sampling size. It allows the detailed control of the balance between accuracy and computing time. Numerical tests on a simple non-linear model are convincing and the method is finally applied to a functional–structural model of tree growth, GreenLab, whose particularity is the strong level of interaction between plant functioning and organogenesis. - Highlights: ► We study global sensitivity analysis in the context of functional–structural plant modelling. ► A new estimator based on Homma–Saltelli method is proposed to compute Sobol indices, based on a more balanced re-sampling strategy. ► The estimation accuracy of sensitivity indices for a class of Sobol's estimators can be controlled by error analysis. ► The proposed algorithm is implemented efficiently to compute Sobol indices for a complex tree growth model.

  11. The Glacial BuzzSaw, Isostasy, and Global Crustal Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levander, A.; Oncken, O.; Niu, F.

    2015-12-01

    The glacial buzzsaw hypothesis predicts that maximum elevations in orogens at high latitudes are depressed relative to temperate latitudes, as maximum elevation and hypsography of glaciated orogens are functions of the glacial equilibrium line altitude (ELA) and the modern and last glacial maximum (LGM) snowlines. As a consequence crustal thickness, density, or both must change with increasing latitude to maintain isostatic balance. For Airy compensation crustal thickness should decrease toward polar latitudes, whereas for Pratt compensation crustal densities should increase. For similar convergence rates, higher latitude orogens should have higher grade, and presumably higher density rocks in the crustal column due to more efficient glacial erosion. We have examined a number of global and regional crustal models to see if these predictions appear in the models. Crustal thickness is straightforward to examine, crustal density less so. The different crustal models generally agree with one another, but do show some major differences. We used a standard tectonic classification scheme of the crust for data selection. The globally averaged orogens show crustal thicknesses that decrease toward high latitudes, almost reflecting topography, in both the individual crustal models and the models averaged together. The most convincing is the western hemisphere cordillera, where elevations and crustal thicknesses decrease toward the poles, and also toward lower latitudes (the equatorial minimum is at ~12oN). The elevation differences and Airy prediction of crustal thickness changes are in reasonable agreement in the North American Cordillera, but in South America the observed crustal thickness change is larger than the Airy prediction. The Alpine-Himalayan chain shows similar trends, however the strike of the chain makes interpretation ambiguous. We also examined cratons with ice sheets during the last glacial period to see if continental glaciation also thins the crust toward

  12. Semi-Global Filtering of Airborne LiDAR Data for Fast Extraction of Digital Terrain Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangyun Hu

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Automatic extraction of ground points, called filtering, is an essential step in producing Digital Terrain Models from airborne LiDAR data. Scene complexity and computational performance are two major problems that should be addressed in filtering, especially when processing large point cloud data with diverse scenes. This paper proposes a fast and intelligent algorithm called Semi-Global Filtering (SGF. The SGF models the filtering as a labeling problem in which the labels correspond to possible height levels. A novel energy function balanced by adaptive ground saliency is employed to adapt to steep slopes, discontinuous terrains, and complex objects. Semi-global optimization is used to determine labels that minimize the energy. These labels form an optimal classification surface based on which the points are classified as either ground or non-ground. The experimental results show that the SGF algorithm is very efficient and able to produce high classification accuracy. Given that the major procedure of semi-global optimization using dynamic programming is conducted independently along eight directions, SGF can also be paralleled and sped up via Graphic Processing Unit computing, which runs at a speed of approximately 3 million points per second.

  13. Global and local level density models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koning, A.J.; Hilaire, S.; Goriely, S.

    2008-01-01

    Four different level density models, three phenomenological and one microscopic, are consistently parameterized using the same set of experimental observables. For each of the phenomenological models, the Constant Temperature Model, the Back-shifted Fermi gas Model and the Generalized Superfluid Model, a version without and with explicit collective enhancement is considered. Moreover, a recently published microscopic combinatorial model is compared with the phenomenological approaches and with the same set of experimental data. For each nuclide for which sufficient experimental data exists, a local level density parameterization is constructed for each model. Next, these local models have helped to construct global level density prescriptions, to be used for cases for which no experimental data exists. Altogether, this yields a collection of level density formulae and parameters that can be used with confidence in nuclear model calculations. To demonstrate this, a large-scale validation with experimental discrete level schemes and experimental cross sections and neutron emission spectra for various different reaction channels has been performed

  14. Bioavailable atmospheric phosphorous supply to the global ocean: a 3-D global modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Nenes, Athanasios; Baker, Alex R.; Mihalopoulos, Nikolaos; Kanakidou, Maria

    2016-12-01

    The atmospheric cycle of phosphorus (P) is parameterized here in a state-of-the-art global 3-D chemistry transport model, taking into account primary emissions of total P (TP) and soluble P (DP) associated with mineral dust, combustion particles from natural and anthropogenic sources, bioaerosols, sea spray and volcanic aerosols. For the present day, global TP emissions are calculated to be roughly 1.33 Tg-P yr-1, with the mineral sources contributing more than 80 % to these emissions. The P solubilization from mineral dust under acidic atmospheric conditions is also parameterized in the model and is calculated to contribute about one-third (0.14 Tg-P yr-1) of the global DP atmospheric source. To our knowledge, a unique aspect of our global study is the explicit modeling of the evolution of phosphorus speciation in the atmosphere. The simulated present-day global annual DP deposition flux is 0.45 Tg-P yr-1 (about 40 % over oceans), showing a strong spatial and temporal variability. Present-day simulations of atmospheric P aerosol concentrations and deposition fluxes are satisfactory compared with available observations, indicating however an underestimate of about 70 % on current knowledge of the sources that drive the P atmospheric cycle. Sensitivity simulations using preindustrial (year 1850) anthropogenic and biomass burning emission scenarios showed a present-day increase of 75 % in the P solubilization flux from mineral dust, i.e., the rate at which P is converted into soluble forms, compared to preindustrial times, due to increasing atmospheric acidity over the last 150 years. Future reductions in air pollutants due to the implementation of air-quality regulations are expected to decrease the P solubilization flux from mineral dust by about 30 % in the year 2100 compared to the present day. Considering, however, that all the P contained in bioaerosols is readily available for uptake by marine organisms, and also accounting for all other DP sources, a total

  15. Dynamics of a Fractional Order HIV Infection Model with Specific Functional Response and Cure Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adnane Boukhouima

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a fractional order model in this paper to describe the dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV infection. In the model, the infection transmission process is modeled by a specific functional response. First, we show that the model is mathematically and biologically well posed. Second, the local and global stabilities of the equilibria are investigated. Finally, some numerical simulations are presented in order to illustrate our theoretical results.

  16. Iron control on global productivity: an efficient inverse model of the ocean's coupled phosphate and iron cycles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasquier, B.; Holzer, M.; Frants, M.

    2016-02-01

    We construct a data-constrained mechanistic inverse model of the ocean's coupled phosphorus and iron cycles. The nutrient cycling is embedded in a data-assimilated steady global circulation. Biological nutrient uptake is parameterized in terms of nutrient, light, and temperature limitations on growth for two classes of phytoplankton that are not transported explicitly. A matrix formulation of the discretized nutrient tracer equations allows for efficient numerical solutions, which facilitates the objective optimization of the key biogeochemical parameters. The optimization minimizes the misfit between the modelled and observed nutrient fields of the current climate. We systematically assess the nonlinear response of the biological pump to changes in the aeolian iron supply for a variety of scenarios. Specifically, Green-function techniques are employed to quantify in detail the pathways and timescales with which those perturbations are propagated throughout the world oceans, determining the global teleconnections that mediate the response of the global ocean ecosystem. We confirm previous findings from idealized studies that increased iron fertilization decreases biological production in the subtropical gyres and we quantify the counterintuitive and asymmetric response of global productivity to increases and decreases in the aeolian iron supply.

  17. Global Change Effects on Plant-Soil Interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dam, Marie

    of this dissertation has been to determine how soil food web structure and function is affected when the quantity and quality of plant input is altered under global change. By studying the abundance and composition of soil organisms, particularly those in the rhizosphere, closely associated with living plants, we...... (Paper III). Furthermore, by way of meta-analysis, the role of organisms in global change effects on ecosystem function is modelled (Paper IV). Among CO2, warming and summer drought, CO2 is the factor most consistently impacting soil organisms. CO2 increases abundance of microorganisms and nematodes...... suggest that not only the global change effects on established ecosystems, but also the global change effects on plant community composition as well as land use management may determine the composition and function of soil food webs in the future....

  18. Archaeomagnetic Dating in Europe Using a Global Geomagnetic Field Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lodge, A.; Suttie, N.; Holme, R.; Shaw, J.; Hill, M. J.; Linford, P.

    2009-12-01

    Using up-to-date archaeomagnetic data from Europe and CALS7K.2 as an apriori model, we produce a global geomagnetic field model to be used for archaeomagnetic dating in Europe. More details on the modelling process will be presented elsewhere (in session GP12, abstract: Geophysical insights from archaeomagnetic dating). Here we apply the global geomagnetic field model to a series of test cases from both recently published data and unpublished data to demonstrate its application to archaeomagnetic dating. We compare the results produced using our model with those from the spherical cap harmonic model, SCHA.DIF.3K (Pavón-Carrasco et al., 2009), the global geomagnetic field model, ARCH3K.1 (Korte et al., 2009) and those produced using the palaeosecular variation curves generated using Bayesian statistics (Lanos, 2004). We include examples which emphasise the importance of using three component data (declination, inclination and intensity) to produce an improved archaeomagnetic date. In addition to the careful selection of an appropriate model for archaeomagnetic dating, the choice of errors on the model curves is vital for providing archaeologists with an age range of possible dates. We discuss how best to constrain the errors on the model curves and alternative ways to the mathematical method of Lanos (2004) for producing an archaeomagnetic date for archaeologists.

  19. Global Modeling of Internal Tides Within an Eddying Ocean General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-31

    paper aooo not violate: any Oisclosur~,;·of trade• secrets or suggestions of outside individuals on::oncams whiCh have· beE !n communicated 1.o...fully three- dimensional global ocean circulation model, we will provide an internal tide capability everywhere, and allow nested models to include

  20. Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, Philip J; Jongman, Brenden; Weiland, Frederiek Sperna; Winsemius, Hessel C; Bouwman, Arno; Ligtvoet, Willem; Van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc F P

    2013-01-01

    Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global flood risk maps, based on numerous flood return-periods. Validation results indicate that the model simulates interannual fluctuations in flood impacts well. The cascade involves: hydrological and hydraulic modelling; extreme value statistics; inundation modelling; flood impact modelling; and estimating annual expected impacts. The initial results estimate global impacts for several indicators, for example annual expected exposed population (169 million); and annual expected exposed GDP ($1383 billion). These results are relatively insensitive to the extreme value distribution employed to estimate low frequency flood volumes. However, they are extremely sensitive to the assumed flood protection standard; developing a database of such standards should be a research priority. Also, results are sensitive to the use of two different climate forcing datasets. The impact model can easily accommodate new, user-defined, impact indicators. We envisage several applications, for example: identifying risk hotspots; calculating macro-scale risk for the insurance industry and large companies; and assessing potential benefits (and costs) of adaptation measures. (letter)

  1. Global GPS Ionospheric Modelling Using Spherical Harmonic Expansion Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byung-Kyu Choi

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we developed a global ionosphere model based on measurements from a worldwide network of global positioning system (GPS. The total number of the international GPS reference stations for development of ionospheric model is about 100 and the spherical harmonic expansion approach as a mathematical method was used. In order to produce the ionospheric total electron content (TEC based on grid form, we defined spatial resolution of 2.0 degree and 5.0 degree in latitude and longitude, respectively. Two-dimensional TEC maps were constructed within the interval of one hour, and have a high temporal resolution compared to global ionosphere maps which are produced by several analysis centers. As a result, we could detect the sudden increase of TEC by processing GPS observables on 29 October, 2003 when the massive solar flare took place.

  2. Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-12-01

    The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI

  3. Limitations of a Short Demographic Questionnaire for Bedside Estimation of Patients’ Global Cognitive Functioning in Epilepsy Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iris Gorny

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available ObjectivesThe German socio-demographic estimation scale was developed by Jahn et al. (1 to quickly predict premorbid global cognitive functioning in patients. So far, it has been validated in healthy adults and has shown a good correlation with the full and verbal IQ of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS in this group. However, there are no data regarding its use as a bedside test in epilepsy patients.MethodsForty native German speaking adult patients with refractory epilepsy were included. They completed a neuropsychological assessment, including a nine scale short form of the German version of the WAIS-III and the German socio-demographic estimation scale by Jahn et al. (1 during their presurgical diagnostic stay in our center. We calculated means, correlations, and the rate of concordance (range ±5 and ±7.5 IQ score points between these two measures for the whole group, and a subsample of 19 patients with a global cognitive functioning level within 1 SD of the mean (IQ score range 85–115 and who had completed their formal education before epilepsy onset.ResultsThe German demographic estimation scale by Jahn et al. (1 showed a significant mean overestimation of the global cognitive functioning level of eight points in the epilepsy patient sample compared with the short form WAIS-III score. The accuracy within a range of ±5 or ±7.5 IQ score points for each patient was similar to that of the healthy controls reported by Jahn et al. (1 in our subsample, but not in our whole sample.ConclusionOur results show that the socio-demographic scale by Jahn et al. (1 is not sufficiently reliable as an estimation tool of global cognitive functioning in epilepsy patients. It can be used to estimate global cognitive functioning in a subset of patients with a normal global cognitive functioning level who have completed their formal education before epilepsy onset, but it does not reliably predict global cognitive functioning in epilepsy patients

  4. Global-local nonlinear model reduction for flows in heterogeneous porous media

    KAUST Repository

    AlOtaibi, Manal; Calo, Victor M.; Efendiev, Yalchin R.; Galvis, Juan; Ghommem, Mehdi

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we combine discrete empirical interpolation techniques, global mode decomposition methods, and local multiscale methods, such as the Generalized Multiscale Finite Element Method (GMsFEM), to reduce the computational complexity associated with nonlinear flows in highly-heterogeneous porous media. To solve the nonlinear governing equations, we employ the GMsFEM to represent the solution on a coarse grid with multiscale basis functions and apply proper orthogonal decomposition on a coarse grid. Computing the GMsFEM solution involves calculating the residual and the Jacobian on a fine grid. As such, we use local and global empirical interpolation concepts to circumvent performing these computations on the fine grid. The resulting reduced-order approach significantly reduces the flow problem size while accurately capturing the behavior of fully-resolved solutions. We consider several numerical examples of nonlinear multiscale partial differential equations that are numerically integrated using fully-implicit time marching schemes to demonstrate the capability of the proposed model reduction approach to speed up simulations of nonlinear flows in high-contrast porous media.

  5. Global-local nonlinear model reduction for flows in heterogeneous porous media

    KAUST Repository

    AlOtaibi, Manal

    2015-08-01

    In this paper, we combine discrete empirical interpolation techniques, global mode decomposition methods, and local multiscale methods, such as the Generalized Multiscale Finite Element Method (GMsFEM), to reduce the computational complexity associated with nonlinear flows in highly-heterogeneous porous media. To solve the nonlinear governing equations, we employ the GMsFEM to represent the solution on a coarse grid with multiscale basis functions and apply proper orthogonal decomposition on a coarse grid. Computing the GMsFEM solution involves calculating the residual and the Jacobian on a fine grid. As such, we use local and global empirical interpolation concepts to circumvent performing these computations on the fine grid. The resulting reduced-order approach significantly reduces the flow problem size while accurately capturing the behavior of fully-resolved solutions. We consider several numerical examples of nonlinear multiscale partial differential equations that are numerically integrated using fully-implicit time marching schemes to demonstrate the capability of the proposed model reduction approach to speed up simulations of nonlinear flows in high-contrast porous media.

  6. Model calculated global, regional and megacity premature mortality due to air pollution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Lelieveld

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Air pollution by fine particulate matter (PM2.5 and ozone (O3 has increased strongly with industrialization and urbanization. We estimate the premature mortality rates and the years of human life lost (YLL caused by anthropogenic PM2.5 and O3 in 2005 for epidemiological regions defined by the World Health Organization (WHO. This is based upon high-resolution global model calculations that resolve urban and industrial regions in greater detail compared to previous work. Results indicate that 69% of the global population is exposed to an annual mean anthropogenic PM2.5 concentration of >10 μg m−3 (WHO guideline and 33% to > 25 μg m−3 (EU directive. We applied an epidemiological health impact function and find that especially in large countries with extensive suburban and rural populations, air pollution-induced mortality rates have been underestimated given that previous studies largely focused on the urban environment. We calculate a global respiratory mortality of about 773 thousand/year (YLL ≈ 5.2 million/year, 186 thousand/year by lung cancer (YLL ≈ 1.7 million/year and 2.0 million/year by cardiovascular disease (YLL ≈ 14.3 million/year. The global mean per capita mortality caused by air pollution is about 0.1% yr−1. The highest premature mortality rates are found in the Southeast Asia and Western Pacific regions (about 25% and 46% of the global rate, respectively where more than a dozen of the most highly polluted megacities are located.

  7. A fully traits-based approach to modeling global vegetation distribution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bodegom, van P.M.; Douma, J.C.; Verheijen, L.M.

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are indispensable for our understanding of climate change impacts. The application of traits in DGVMs is increasingly refined. However, a comprehensive analysis of the direct impacts of trait variation on global vegetation distribution does not yet exist.

  8. Transfer Function Identification Using Orthogonal Fourier Transform Modeling Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Eugene A.

    2013-01-01

    A method for transfer function identification, including both model structure determination and parameter estimation, was developed and demonstrated. The approach uses orthogonal modeling functions generated from frequency domain data obtained by Fourier transformation of time series data. The method was applied to simulation data to identify continuous-time transfer function models and unsteady aerodynamic models. Model fit error, estimated model parameters, and the associated uncertainties were used to show the effectiveness of the method for identifying accurate transfer function models from noisy data.

  9. Global vegetation change predicted by the modified Budyko model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monserud, R.A.; Tchebakova, N.M.; Leemans, R. (US Department of Agriculture, Moscow, ID (United States). Intermountain Research Station, Forest Service)

    1993-09-01

    A modified Budyko global vegetation model is used to predict changes in global vegetation patterns resulting from climate change (CO[sub 2] doubling). Vegetation patterns are predicted using a model based on a dryness index and potential evaporation determined by solving radiation balance equations. Climate change scenarios are derived from predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCM's) of the atmosphere (GFDL, GISS, OSU, and UKMO). All four GCM scenarios show similar trends in vegetation shifts and in areas that remain stable, although the UKMO scenario predicts greater warming than the others. Climate change maps produced by all four GCM scenarios show good agreement with the current climate vegetation map for the globe as a whole, although over half of the vegetation classes show only poor to fair agreement. The most stable areas are Desert and Ice/Polar Desert. Because most of the predicted warming is concentrated in the Boreal and Temperate zones, vegetation there is predicted to undergo the greatest change. Most vegetation classes in the Subtropics and Tropics are predicted to expand. Any shift in the Tropics favouring either Forest over Savanna, or vice versa, will be determined by the magnitude of the increased precipitation accompanying global warming. Although the model predicts equilibrium conditions to which many plant species cannot adjust (through migration or microevolution) in the 50-100 y needed for CO[sub 2] doubling, it is not clear if projected global warming will result in drastic or benign vegetation change. 72 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.

  10. Increased Global Functional Connectivity Correlates with LSD-Induced Ego Dissolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagliazucchi, Enzo; Roseman, Leor; Kaelen, Mendel; Orban, Csaba; Muthukumaraswamy, Suresh D; Murphy, Kevin; Laufs, Helmut; Leech, Robert; McGonigle, John; Crossley, Nicolas; Bullmore, Edward; Williams, Tim; Bolstridge, Mark; Feilding, Amanda; Nutt, David J; Carhart-Harris, Robin

    2016-04-25

    Lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) is a non-selective serotonin-receptor agonist that was first synthesized in 1938 and identified as (potently) psychoactive in 1943. Psychedelics have been used by indigenous cultures for millennia [1]; however, because of LSD's unique potency and the timing of its discovery (coinciding with a period of major discovery in psychopharmacology), it is generally regarded as the quintessential contemporary psychedelic [2]. LSD has profound modulatory effects on consciousness and was used extensively in psychological research and psychiatric practice in the 1950s and 1960s [3]. In spite of this, however, there have been no modern human imaging studies of its acute effects on the brain. Here we studied the effects of LSD on intrinsic functional connectivity within the human brain using fMRI. High-level association cortices (partially overlapping with the default-mode, salience, and frontoparietal attention networks) and the thalamus showed increased global connectivity under the drug. The cortical areas showing increased global connectivity overlapped significantly with a map of serotonin 2A (5-HT2A) receptor densities (the key site of action of psychedelic drugs [4]). LSD also increased global integration by inflating the level of communication between normally distinct brain networks. The increase in global connectivity observed under LSD correlated with subjective reports of "ego dissolution." The present results provide the first evidence that LSD selectively expands global connectivity in the brain, compromising the brain's modular and "rich-club" organization and, simultaneously, the perceptual boundaries between the self and the environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Global Environmental Change: An integrated modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Den Elzen, M.

    1993-01-01

    Two major global environmental problems are dealt with: climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion (and their mutual interactions), briefly surveyed in part 1. In Part 2 a brief description of the integrated modelling framework IMAGE 1.6 is given. Some specific parts of the model are described in more detail in other Chapters, e.g. the carbon cycle model, the atmospheric chemistry model, the halocarbon model, and the UV-B impact model. In Part 3 an uncertainty analysis of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion is presented (Chapter 4). Chapter 5 briefly reviews the social and economic uncertainties implied by future greenhouse gas emissions. Chapters 6 and 7 describe a model and sensitivity analysis pertaining to the scientific uncertainties and/or lacunae in the sources and sinks of methane and carbon dioxide, and their biogeochemical feedback processes. Chapter 8 presents an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the carbon cycle model, the halocarbon model, and the IMAGE model 1.6 as a whole. Part 4 presents the risk assessment methodology as applied to the problems of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion more specifically. In Chapter 10, this methodology is used as a means with which to asses current ozone policy and a wide range of halocarbon policies. Chapter 11 presents and evaluates the simulated globally-averaged temperature and sea level rise (indicators) for the IPCC-1990 and 1992 scenarios, concluding with a Low Risk scenario, which would meet the climate targets. Chapter 12 discusses the impact of sea level rise on the frequency of the Dutch coastal defence system (indicator) for the IPCC-1990 scenarios. Chapter 13 presents projections of mortality rates due to stratospheric ozone depletion based on model simulations employing the UV-B chain model for a number of halocarbon policies. Chapter 14 presents an approach for allocating future emissions of CO 2 among regions. (Abstract Truncated)

  12. Prospects for improving the representation of coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Jason; Hyder, Patrick; Ashworth, Mike; Harle, James; Hewitt, Helene T.; Liu, Hedong; New, Adrian L.; Pickles, Stephen; Porter, Andrew; Popova, Ekaterina; Icarus Allen, J.; Siddorn, John; Wood, Richard

    2017-02-01

    Accurately representing coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models represents one of the grand challenges of Earth system science. They are regions of immense societal importance through the goods and services they provide, hazards they pose and their role in global-scale processes and cycles, e.g. carbon fluxes and dense water formation. However, they are poorly represented in the current generation of global ocean models. In this contribution, we aim to briefly characterise the problem, and then to identify the important physical processes, and their scales, needed to address this issue in the context of the options available to resolve these scales globally and the evolving computational landscape.We find barotropic and topographic scales are well resolved by the current state-of-the-art model resolutions, e.g. nominal 1/12°, and still reasonably well resolved at 1/4°; here, the focus is on process representation. We identify tides, vertical coordinates, river inflows and mixing schemes as four areas where modelling approaches can readily be transferred from regional to global modelling with substantial benefit. In terms of finer-scale processes, we find that a 1/12° global model resolves the first baroclinic Rossby radius for only ˜ 8 % of regions benefit of improved resolution and process representation using 1/12° global- and basin-scale northern North Atlantic nucleus for a European model of the ocean (NEMO) simulations; the latter includes tides and a k-ɛ vertical mixing scheme. These are compared with global stratification observations and 19 models from CMIP5. In terms of correlation and basin-wide rms error, the high-resolution models outperform all these CMIP5 models. The model with tides shows improved seasonal cycles compared to the high-resolution model without tides. The benefits of resolution are particularly apparent in eastern boundary upwelling zones.To explore the balance between the size of a globally refined model and that of

  13. Challenges and Conundrums in Modeling Global Methane Emissions from Wetlands: An Empiricist's Viewpoint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bridgham, S. D.

    2015-12-01

    Wetlands emit a third to half of the global CH4 flux and have the largest uncertainty of any emission source. Moreover, wetlands have provided an important radiative feedback to climate in the geologic and recent past. A number of largescale wetland CH4 models have been developed recently, but intermodel comparisons show wide discrepancies in their predictions. I present an empiricist's overview of the current limitations and challenges of more accurately modeling wetland CH4 emissions. One of the largest limitations is simply the poor knowledge of wetland area, with estimated global values varying by a more than a factor of three. The areas of seasonal and tropical wetlands are particularly poorly constrained. There are also few wetlands with complete, multi-year datasets for all of the input variables for many models, and this lack of data is particularly alarming in tropical wetlands given that they are arguably the single largest natural or anthropogenic global CH4 source. Almost all largescale CH4 models have little biogeochemical mechanistic detail and treat anaerobic carbon cycling in a highly simplified manner. The CH4:CO2 ratio in anaerobic carbon mineralization is a central parameter in many models, but is at most set at a few values with no mechanistic underpinning. However, empirical data show that this ratio varies by five orders of magnitude in different wetlands, and tropical wetlands appear to be particularly methanogenic, all for reasons that are very poorly understood. The predominance of the acetoclastic pathway of methanogenesis appears to be related to total CH4 production, but different methanogenesis pathways are generally not incorporated into models. Other important anaerobic processes such as humic substances acting as terminal electron acceptors, fermentation, homoacetogenesis, and anaerobic CH4 oxidation are also not included in most models despite evidence of their importance in empirical studies. Moreover, there has been an explosion

  14. Going global: the functions of autobiographical memory in cultural context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alea, Nicole; Wang, Qi

    2015-01-01

    This special issue of Memory brings together research from around the globe, from Japanese, Chinese and East Indian cultures, to American and European societies, to the Caribbean, to Turkey and to Australia and New Zealand, which examines how and why people, from childhood to old age, remember the personal past in daily life. This journey highlights the important role of the cultural context in shaping the functional usages of autobiographical memory. We illuminate six major contributions of cross-cultural research to a broader and deeper understanding of the functions of autobiographical memory, and call attention to the filed that memory research must "go global."

  15. Plasma Reactors and Plasma Thrusters Modeling by Ar Complete Global Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chloe Berenguer

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A complete global model for argon was developed and adapted to plasma reactor and plasma thruster modeling. It takes into consideration ground level and excited Ar and Ar+ species and the reactor and thruster form factors. The electronic temperature, the species densities, and the ionization percentage, depending mainly on the pressure and the absorbed power, have been obtained and commented for various physical conditions.

  16. Modeling and Monitoring Terrestrial Primary Production in a Changing Global Environment: Toward a Multiscale Synthesis of Observation and Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shufen Pan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available There is a critical need to monitor and predict terrestrial primary production, the key indicator of ecosystem functioning, in a changing global environment. Here we provide a brief review of three major approaches to monitoring and predicting terrestrial primary production: (1 ground-based field measurements, (2 satellite-based observations, and (3 process-based ecosystem modelling. Much uncertainty exists in the multi-approach estimations of terrestrial gross primary production (GPP and net primary production (NPP. To improve the capacity of model simulation and prediction, it is essential to evaluate ecosystem models against ground and satellite-based measurements and observations. As a case, we have shown the performance of the dynamic land ecosystem model (DLEM at various scales from site to region to global. We also discuss how terrestrial primary production might respond to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 and uncertainties associated with model and data. Further progress in monitoring and predicting terrestrial primary production requires a multiscale synthesis of observations and model simulations. In the Anthropocene era in which human activity has indeed changed the Earth’s biosphere, therefore, it is essential to incorporate the socioeconomic component into terrestrial ecosystem models for accurately estimating and predicting terrestrial primary production in a changing global environment.

  17. Architecture design in global and model-centric software development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijstek, Werner

    2012-01-01

    This doctoral dissertation describes a series of empirical investigations into representation, dissemination and coordination of software architecture design in the context of global software development. A particular focus is placed on model-centric and model-driven software development.

  18. A variable resolution nonhydrostatic global atmospheric semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouliot, George Antoine

    2000-10-01

    The objective of this project is to develop a variable-resolution finite difference adiabatic global nonhydrostatic semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian (SISL) model based on the fully compressible nonhydrostatic atmospheric equations. To achieve this goal, a three-dimensional variable resolution dynamical core was developed and tested. The main characteristics of the dynamical core can be summarized as follows: Spherical coordinates were used in a global domain. A hydrostatic/nonhydrostatic switch was incorporated into the dynamical equations to use the fully compressible atmospheric equations. A generalized horizontal variable resolution grid was developed and incorporated into the model. For a variable resolution grid, in contrast to a uniform resolution grid, the order of accuracy of finite difference approximations is formally lost but remains close to the order of accuracy associated with the uniform resolution grid provided the grid stretching is not too significant. The SISL numerical scheme was implemented for the fully compressible set of equations. In addition, the generalized minimum residual (GMRES) method with restart and preconditioner was used to solve the three-dimensional elliptic equation derived from the discretized system of equations. The three-dimensional momentum equation was integrated in vector-form to incorporate the metric terms in the calculations of the trajectories. Using global re-analysis data for a specific test case, the model was compared to similar SISL models previously developed. Reasonable agreement between the model and the other independently developed models was obtained. The Held-Suarez test for dynamical cores was used for a long integration and the model was successfully integrated for up to 1200 days. Idealized topography was used to test the variable resolution component of the model. Nonhydrostatic effects were simulated at grid spacings of 400 meters with idealized topography and uniform flow. Using a high

  19. M2, S2, K1 models of the global ocean tide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parke, M. E.; Hendershott, M. C.

    1979-01-01

    Ocean tidal signals appear in many geophysical measurements. Geophysicists need realistic tidal models to aid in interpretation of their data. Because of the closeness to resonance of dissipationless ocean tides, it is difficult for numerical models to correctly represent the actual open ocean tide. As an approximate solution to this problem, test functions derived by solving Laplace's Tidal Equations with ocean loading and self gravitation are used as a basis for least squares dynamic interpolation of coastal and island tidal data for the constituents M2, S2, and Kl. The resulting representations of the global tide are stable over at least a ?5% variation in the mean depth of the model basin, and they conserve mass. Maps of the geocentric tide, the induced free space potential, the induced vertical component of the solid earth tide, and the induced vertical component of the gravitational field for each contituent are presented.

  20. Toward an Integrative Model of Global Business Strategy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Xin

    fragmentation-integration-fragmentation-integration upward spiral. In response to the call for integrative approach to strategic management research, we propose an integrative model of global business strategy that aims at integrating not only strategy and IB but also the different paradigms within the strategy...... field. We also discuss the merit and limitation of our model....

  1. Functional over-redundancy and high functional vulnerability in global fish faunas on tropical reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouillot, David; Villéger, Sébastien; Parravicini, Valeriano; Kulbicki, Michel; Arias-González, Jesus Ernesto; Bender, Mariana; Chabanet, Pascale; Floeter, Sergio R; Friedlander, Alan; Vigliola, Laurent; Bellwood, David R

    2014-09-23

    When tropical systems lose species, they are often assumed to be buffered against declines in functional diversity by the ability of the species-rich biota to display high functional redundancy: i.e., a high number of species performing similar functions. We tested this hypothesis using a ninefold richness gradient in global fish faunas on tropical reefs encompassing 6,316 species distributed among 646 functional entities (FEs): i.e., unique combinations of functional traits. We found that the highest functional redundancy is located in the Central Indo-Pacific with a mean of 7.9 species per FE. However, this overall level of redundancy is disproportionately packed into few FEs, a pattern termed functional over-redundancy (FOR). For instance, the most speciose FE in the Central Indo-Pacific contains 222 species (out of 3,689) whereas 38% of FEs (180 out of 468) have no functional insurance with only one species. Surprisingly, the level of FOR is consistent across the six fish faunas, meaning that, whatever the richness, over a third of the species may still be in overrepresented FEs whereas more than one third of the FEs are left without insurance, these levels all being significantly higher than expected by chance. Thus, our study shows that, even in high-diversity systems, such as tropical reefs, functional diversity remains highly vulnerable to species loss. Although further investigations are needed to specifically address the influence of redundant vs. vulnerable FEs on ecosystem functioning, our results suggest that the promised benefits from tropical biodiversity may not be as strong as previously thought.

  2. Takaful Models and Global Practices

    OpenAIRE

    Akhter, Waheed

    2010-01-01

    There is a global interest in Islamic finance in general and Takāful in particular. The main feature that differentiates Takāful services from conventional ones is Sharī‟ah compliance nature of these services. Investors are taking keen interest in this potential market as Muslims constitute about one fourth of the world population (Muslim population, 2006). To streamline operations of a Takāful company, management and Sharī‟ah experts have developed different operational models for Takāful bu...

  3. Periodic solutions of delayed predator-prey model with the Beddington-DeAngelis functional response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huo Haifeng [Institute of Applied Mathematics, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou, Gansu 730050 (China)]. E-mail: hfhuo@lut.cn; Li Wantong [Department of Mathematics, Lanzhou University Lanzhou, Gansu 730000 (China)]. E-mail: wtli@lzu.edu.cn; Nieto, Juan J. [Departamento de Analisis Matematico, Facultad de Matematicas, Universidad de Santiago de Compostela 15782 (Spain)]. E-mail: amnieto@usc.es

    2007-07-15

    By using the continuation theorem based on Gaines and Mawhin's coincidence degree, sufficient and realistic conditions are obtained for the global existence of positive periodic solutions for a delayed predator-prey model with the Beddington-DeAngelis functional response. Our results are applicable to state dependent and distributed delays.

  4. The Feasibility of Quality Function Deployment (QFD) as an Assessment and Quality Assurance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matorera, D.; Fraser, W. J.

    2016-01-01

    Business schools are globally often seen as structured, purpose-driven, multi-sector and multi-perspective organisations. This article is based on the response of a graduate school to an innovative industrial Quality Function Deployment-based model (QFD), which was to be adopted initially in a Master's degree programme for quality assurance…

  5. Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xia; Gao, Qiong; Peng, Changhui; Cui, Xuefeng; Liu, Yinghui; Jiang, Li

    2014-03-01

    With rapid economic development and urbanization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model (GLOBFOOD) and regional spatial allocation model (CLUE). The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socioeconomic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

  6. Models for prediction of global solar radiation on horizontal surface ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The estimation of global solar radiation continues to play a fundamental role in solar engineering systems and applications. This paper compares various models for estimating the average monthly global solar radiation on horizontal surface for Akure, Nigeria, using solar radiation and sunshine duration data covering years ...

  7. Global modelling to predict timber production and prices: the GFPM approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph Buongiorno

    2014-01-01

    Timber production and prices are determined by the global demand for forest products, and the capability of producers from many countries to grow and harvest trees, transform them into products and export. The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) simulates how this global demand and supply of multiple products among many countries determines prices and attendant...

  8. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  9. GLOBATO: An enhanced global relief model at 30 arc-seconds resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Leary, V.; Amante, C.

    2017-12-01

    The National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), an office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), first developed a digital bathymetric and elevation model, ETOPO5, from publicly available data in 1993. For nearly 25 years, NCEI's ETOPO family of global relief models have supported research at a planetary scale, including tsunami forecasting, ocean circulation modeling, visualization of the seafloor, understanding geological phenomena, and aiding the development of other global and regional elevation models. GLOBATO (GLObal BAThymetry and TOpography) is now the most detailed version released by NCEI with a horizontal resolution of 30 arc-seconds and succeeds ETOPO1 with the inclusion of several new or updated data-sets for the seafloor as well as land areas. GLOBATO is a compilation of data derived from models of satellite measurements, ship depth soundings, and multibeam surveys, as well as regional models developed for Greenland and Antarctica. These data were converted from different formats, resolutions, spatial distributions, and projections into a single global model using GDAL v2.2 and MB-System v5.5. As with previous NCEI models, GLOBATO is available in two formats, "bedrock elevation" (measured as the base of major ice sheets) and "ice surface elevation" (measured as the surface of major ice sheets) which provides comprehensive topographic and bathymetric coverage between +- 90 degrees latitude and +- 180 degrees longitude. Adhering to best practices, GLOBATO, all related digital products, and any supporting documentation are available online through the NCEI data portal. These new, high resolution models will better support the variety of research ETOPO1 has made possible.

  10. Assessing water resources in Azerbaijan using a local distributed model forced and constrained with global data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouaziz, Laurène; Hegnauer, Mark; Schellekens, Jaap; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; ten Velden, Corine

    2017-04-01

    with NOAA stations and that MSWEP slightly overestimated precipitation amounts. On a daily basis, there were discrepancies in the peak timing and magnitude between measured precipitation and the global products. A bias between EU-WATCH and WFDEI temperature and potential evaporation was observed and to model the water balance correctly, it was needed to correct EU-WATCH to WFDEI mean monthly values. Overall, the available sources enabled rapid set-up of a hydrological model including the forcing of the model with a relatively good performance to assess water resources in Azerbaijan with a limited calibration effort and allow for a similar set-up anywhere in the world. Timing and quantification of peak volume remains a weakness in global data, making it difficult to be used for some applications (flooding) and for detailed calibration. Selecting and comparing different sources of global meteorological data is important to have a reliable set which improves model performance. - Beck et al., 2016. MSWEP: 3-hourly 0.25° global gridded precipitation (1979-2014) by merging gauge, satellite, and reanalysis data. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. - Dai Y. et al. ,2013. Development of a China Dataset of Soil Hydraulic Parameters Using Pedotransfer Functions for Land Surface Modeling. Journal of Hydrometeorology - Harding, R. et al., 2011., WATCH: Current knowledge of the Terrestrial global water cycle, J. Hydrometeorol. - Schellekens, J. et al., 2014. Rapid setup of hydrological and hydraulic models using OpenStreetMap and the SRTM derived digital elevation model. Environmental Modelling&Software - Wang-Erlandsson L. et al., 2016. Global Root Zone Storage Capacity from Satellite-Based Evaporation. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences - Weedon, G. et al., 2014. The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set: WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data, Water Resources Research.

  11. Designing novel cellulase systems through agent-based modeling and global sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apte, Advait A; Senger, Ryan S; Fong, Stephen S

    2014-01-01

    Experimental techniques allow engineering of biological systems to modify functionality; however, there still remains a need to develop tools to prioritize targets for modification. In this study, agent-based modeling (ABM) was used to build stochastic models of complexed and non-complexed cellulose hydrolysis, including enzymatic mechanisms for endoglucanase, exoglucanase, and β-glucosidase activity. Modeling results were consistent with experimental observations of higher efficiency in complexed systems than non-complexed systems and established relationships between specific cellulolytic mechanisms and overall efficiency. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of model results identified key parameters for improving overall cellulose hydrolysis efficiency including: (1) the cellulase half-life, (2) the exoglucanase activity, and (3) the cellulase composition. Overall, the following parameters were found to significantly influence cellulose consumption in a consolidated bioprocess (CBP): (1) the glucose uptake rate of the culture, (2) the bacterial cell concentration, and (3) the nature of the cellulase enzyme system (complexed or non-complexed). Broadly, these results demonstrate the utility of combining modeling and sensitivity analysis to identify key parameters and/or targets for experimental improvement. PMID:24830736

  12. Designing novel cellulase systems through agent-based modeling and global sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apte, Advait A; Senger, Ryan S; Fong, Stephen S

    2014-01-01

    Experimental techniques allow engineering of biological systems to modify functionality; however, there still remains a need to develop tools to prioritize targets for modification. In this study, agent-based modeling (ABM) was used to build stochastic models of complexed and non-complexed cellulose hydrolysis, including enzymatic mechanisms for endoglucanase, exoglucanase, and β-glucosidase activity. Modeling results were consistent with experimental observations of higher efficiency in complexed systems than non-complexed systems and established relationships between specific cellulolytic mechanisms and overall efficiency. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of model results identified key parameters for improving overall cellulose hydrolysis efficiency including: (1) the cellulase half-life, (2) the exoglucanase activity, and (3) the cellulase composition. Overall, the following parameters were found to significantly influence cellulose consumption in a consolidated bioprocess (CBP): (1) the glucose uptake rate of the culture, (2) the bacterial cell concentration, and (3) the nature of the cellulase enzyme system (complexed or non-complexed). Broadly, these results demonstrate the utility of combining modeling and sensitivity analysis to identify key parameters and/or targets for experimental improvement.

  13. Global Asymptotic Stability of Impulsive CNNs with Proportional Delays and Partially Lipschitz Activation Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xueli Song

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper researches global asymptotic stability of impulsive cellular neural networks with proportional delays and partially Lipschitz activation functions. Firstly, by means of the transformation vi(t=ui(et, the impulsive cellular neural networks with proportional delays are transformed into impulsive cellular neural networks with the variable coefficients and constant delays. Secondly, we provide novel criteria for the uniqueness and exponential stability of the equilibrium point of the latter by relative nonlinear measure and prove that the exponential stability of equilibrium point of the latter implies the asymptotic stability of one of the former. We furthermore obtain a sufficient condition to the uniqueness and global asymptotic stability of the equilibrium point of the former. Our method does not require conventional assumptions on global Lipschitz continuity, boundedness, and monotonicity of activation functions. Our results are generalizations and improvements of some existing ones. Finally, an example and its simulations are provided to illustrate the correctness of our analysis.

  14. GLOMO - Global Mobility Model: Beschreibung und Ergebnisse

    OpenAIRE

    Kühn, André; Novinsky, Patrick; Schade, Wolfgang

    2014-01-01

    The development of both, emerging markets as well as the already establish markets (USA, Japan, Europe), is highly relevant for future success of the export-oriented German automotive industry. This paper describes the so called Global Mobility Model (GLOMO) based on the system dynamics approach, which simulates the future development of car sales by segment and drive technology. The modularized model contains population, income and GDP development in order to describe the framework in the mo...

  15. GLOBAL STABILITY AND PERIODIC SOLUTION OF A VIRAL DYNAMIC MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erhan COŞKUN

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract:In this paper, we consider the classical viral dynamic mathematical model. Global dynamics of the model is rigorously established. We prove that, if the basic reproduction number, the HIV infection is cleared from the T-cell population; if , the HIV infection persists. For an open set of parameter values, the chronic-infection equilibrium can be unstable and periodic solutions may exist. We establish parameter regions for which is globally stable. Keywords: Global stability, HIV infection; CD4+ T cells; Periodic solution Mathematics Subject Classifications (2000: 65L10, 34B05 BİR VİRAL DİNAMİK MODELİN GLOBAL KARARLILIĞI VE PERİYODİK ÇÖZÜMÜ Özet: Bu makalede klasik viral dinamik modeli ele aldık. Modelin global dinamikleri oluşturuldu. Eğer temel üretim sayısı olur ise HIV enfeksiyonu T hücre nüfusundan çıkartılır, eğer olursa HIV enfeksiyonu çıkartılamaz. Parametre değerlerinin açık bir kümesi için kronik enfeksiyon dengesi kararsızdır ve periyodik çözüm oluşabilir. ın global kararlı olduğu parametre bölgeleri oluşturuldu. Anahtar Kelimeler: Global Kararlılık, HIV enfeksiyon, CD4+ T hücreler, Periyodik çözüm

  16. EVALUATION OF PENALTY FUNCTIONS FOR SEMI-GLOBAL MATCHING COST AGGREGATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Banz

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The stereo matching method semi-global matching (SGM relies on consistency constraints during the cost aggregation which are enforced by so-called penalty terms. This paper proposes new and evaluates four penalty functions for SGM. Due to mutual dependencies, two types of matching cost calculation, census and rank transform, are considered. Performance is measured using original and degenerated images exhibiting radiometric changes and noise from the Middlebury benchmark. The two best performing penalty functions are inversely proportional and negatively linear to the intensity gradient and perform equally with 6.05% and 5.91% average error, respectively. The experiments also show that adaptive penalty terms are mandatory when dealing with difficult imaging conditions. Consequently, for highest algorithmic performance in real-world systems, selection of a suitable penalty function and thorough parametrization with respect to the expected image quality is essential.

  17. Validation of a simple isotopic technique for the measurement of global and separated renal function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chachati, A.; Meyers, A.; Rigo, P.; Godon, J.P.

    1986-01-01

    Schlegel and Gates described an isotopic method for the measurement of global and separated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and effective renal plasma flow (ERPF) based on the determination by scintillation camera of the fraction of the injected dose (99mTc-DTPA-[ 131 I]hippuran) present in the kidneys 1-3 min after its administration. This method requires counting of the injected dose and attenuation correction, but no blood or urine sampling. We validated this technique by the simultaneous infusion of inulin and para-amino hippuric acid (PAH) in patients with various levels of renal function (anuric to normal). To better define individual renal function we studied 9 kidneys in patients either nephrectomized or with a nephrostomy enabling separated function measurement. A good correlation between inulin, PAH clearance, and isotopic GFR-ERPF measurement for both global and separate renal function was observed

  18. The Global Classroom Video Conferencing Model and First Evaluations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weitze, Charlotte Lærke; Ørngreen, Rikke; Levinsen, Karin

    2013-01-01

    pedagogical innovativeness, including collaborative and technological issues. The research is based on the Global Classroom Model as it is implemented and used at an adult learning center in Denmark (VUC Storstrøm). VUC Storstrøms (VUC) Global Classroom Model is an approach to video conferencing and e......Learning using campus-based teaching combined with laptop solutions for students at home. After a couple of years of campus-to-campus video streaming, VUC started a fulltime day program in 2011 with the support of a hybrid campus and videoconference model. In this model the teachers and some of the students......This paper presents and discusses findings about how students, teachers, and the organization experience a start-up-project applying video conferences between campus and home. This is new territory for adult learning centers. The paper discusses the transition to this eLearning form and discusses...

  19. Clouds and the extratropical circulation response to global warming in a hierarchy of global atmosphere models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, A.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models project that global warming will lead to substantial changes in extratropical jet streams. Yet, many quantitative aspects of warming-induced jet stream changes remain uncertain, and recent work has indicated an important role of clouds and their radiative interactions. Here, I will investigate how cloud-radiative changes impact the zonal-mean extratropical circulation response under global warming using a hierarchy of global atmosphere models. I will first focus on aquaplanet setups with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which reproduce the model spread found in realistic simulations with interactive SSTs. Simulations with two CMIP5 models MPI-ESM and IPSL-CM5A and prescribed clouds show that half of the circulation response can be attributed to cloud changes. The rise of tropical high-level clouds and the upward and poleward movement of midlatitude high-level clouds lead to poleward jet shifts. High-latitude low-level cloud changes shift the jet poleward in one model but not in the other. The impact of clouds on the jet operates via the atmospheric radiative forcing that is created by the cloud changes and is qualitatively reproduced in a dry Held-Suarez model, although the latter is too sensitive because of its simplified treatment of diabatic processes. I will then show that the aquaplanet results also hold when the models are used in a realistic setup that includes continents and seasonality. I will further juxtapose these prescribed-SST simulations with interactive-SST simulations and show that atmospheric and surface cloud-radiative interactions impact the jet poleward jet shifts in about equal measure. Finally, I will discuss the cloud impact on regional and seasonal circulation changes.

  20. Global change in the trophic functioning of marine food webs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maureaud, Aurore; Gascuel, Didier; Colléter, Mathieu

    2017-01-01

    and life history traits of marine species, we tested the hypothesis that anthropogenic ecological impacts may have led to changes in the global parameters defining the transfers of biomass within the food web. First, we developed two indicators to assess such changes: the Time Cumulated Indicator (TCI......The development of fisheries in the oceans, and other human drivers such as climate warming, have led to changes in species abundance, assemblages, trophic interactions, and ultimately in the functioning of marine food webs. Here, using a trophodynamic approach and global databases of catches......) measuring the residence time of biomass within the food web, and the Efficiency Cumulated Indicator (ECI) quantifying the fraction of secondary production reaching the top of the trophic chain. Then, we assessed, at the large marine ecosystem scale, the worldwide change of these two indicators over the 1950...

  1. Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2018-04-01

    The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

  2. A global workspace model for phenomenal and access consciousness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffone, Antonino; Pantani, Martina

    2010-06-01

    Both the global workspace theory and Block's distinction between phenomenal and access consciousness, are central in the current debates about consciousness and the neural correlates of consciousness. In this article, a unifying global workspace model for phenomenal and access consciousness is proposed. In the model, recurrent neural interactions take place in distinct yet interacting access and phenomenal brain loops. The effectiveness of feedback signaling onto sensory cortical maps is emphasized for the neural correlates of phenomenal consciousness. Two forms of top-down attention, attention for perception and attention for access, play differential roles for phenomenal and access consciousness. The model is implemented in a neural network form, with the simulation of single and multiple visual object processing, and of the attentional blink. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Modeling global distribution of agricultural insecticides in surface waters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ippolito, Alessio; Kattwinkel, Mira; Rasmussen, Jes J; Schäfer, Ralf B; Fornaroli, Riccardo; Liess, Matthias

    2015-03-01

    Agricultural insecticides constitute a major driver of animal biodiversity loss in freshwater ecosystems. However, the global extent of their effects and the spatial extent of exposure remain largely unknown. We applied a spatially explicit model to estimate the potential for agricultural insecticide runoff into streams. Water bodies within 40% of the global land surface were at risk of insecticide runoff. We separated the influence of natural factors and variables under human control determining insecticide runoff. In the northern hemisphere, insecticide runoff presented a latitudinal gradient mainly driven by insecticide application rate; in the southern hemisphere, a combination of daily rainfall intensity, terrain slope, agricultural intensity and insecticide application rate determined the process. The model predicted the upper limit of observed insecticide exposure measured in water bodies (n = 82) in five different countries reasonably well. The study provides a global map of hotspots for insecticide contamination guiding future freshwater management and conservation efforts. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Clouds in ECMWF's 30 KM Resolution Global Atmospheric Forecast Model (TL639)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahalan, R. F.; Morcrette, J. J.

    1999-01-01

    Global models of the general circulation of the atmosphere resolve a wide range of length scales, and in particular cloud structures extend from planetary scales to the smallest scales resolvable, now down to 30 km in state-of-the-art models. Even the highest resolution models do not resolve small-scale cloud phenomena seen, for example, in Landsat and other high-resolution satellite images of clouds. Unresolved small-scale disturbances often grow into larger ones through non-linear processes that transfer energy upscale. Understanding upscale cascades is of crucial importance in predicting current weather, and in parameterizing cloud-radiative processes that control long term climate. Several movie animations provide examples of the temporal and spatial variation of cloud fields produced in 4-day runs of the forecast model at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in Reading, England, at particular times and locations of simultaneous measurement field campaigns. model resolution is approximately 30 km horizontally (triangular truncation TL639) with 31 vertical levels from surface to stratosphere. Timestep of the model is about 10 minutes, but animation frames are 3 hours apart, at timesteps when the radiation is computed. The animations were prepared from an archive of several 4-day runs at the highest available model resolution, and archived at ECMWF. Cloud, wind and temperature fields in an approximately 1000 km X 1000 km box were retrieved from the archive, then approximately 60 Mb Vis5d files were prepared with the help of Graeme Kelly of ECMWF, and were compressed into MPEG files each less than 3 Mb. We discuss the interaction of clouds and radiation in the model, and compare the variability of cloud liquid as a function of scale to that seen in cloud observations made in intensive field campaigns. Comparison of high-resolution global runs to cloud-resolving models, and to lower resolution climate models is leading to better

  5. Global Functional Connectivity Differences between Sleep-Like States in Urethane Anesthetized Rats Measured by fMRI.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina Zhurakovskaya

    Full Text Available Sleep is essential for nervous system functioning and sleep disorders are associated with several neurodegenerative diseases. However, the macroscale connectivity changes in brain networking during different sleep states are poorly understood. One of the hindering factors is the difficulty to combine functional connectivity investigation methods with spontaneously sleeping animals, which prevents the use of numerous preclinical animal models. Recent studies, however, have implicated that urethane anesthesia can uniquely induce different sleep-like brain states, resembling rapid eye movement (REM and non-REM (NREM sleep, in rodents. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess changes in global connectivity and topology between sleep-like states in urethane anesthetized rats, using blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD functional magnetic resonance imaging. We detected significant changes in corticocortical (increased in NREM-like state and corticothalamic connectivity (increased in REM-like state. Additionally, in graph analysis the modularity, the measure of functional integration in the brain, was higher in NREM-like state than in REM-like state, indicating a decrease in arousal level, as in normal sleep. The fMRI findings were supported by the supplementary electrophysiological measurements. Taken together, our results show that macroscale functional connectivity changes between sleep states can be detected robustly with resting-state fMRI in urethane anesthetized rats. Our findings pave the way for studies in animal models of neurodegenerative diseases where sleep abnormalities are often one of the first markers for the disorder development.

  6. A satellite-based global landslide model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Farahmand

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Landslides are devastating phenomena that cause huge damage around the world. This paper presents a quasi-global landslide model derived using satellite precipitation data, land-use land cover maps, and 250 m topography information. This suggested landslide model is based on the Support Vector Machines (SVM, a machine learning algorithm. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC landslide inventory data is used as observations and reference data. In all, 70% of the data are used for model development and training, whereas 30% are used for validation and verification. The results of 100 random subsamples of available landslide observations revealed that the suggested landslide model can predict historical landslides reliably. The average error of 100 iterations of landslide prediction is estimated to be approximately 7%, while approximately 2% false landslide events are observed.

  7. Nonparametric Transfer Function Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jun M.; Chen, Rong; Yao, Qiwei

    2009-01-01

    In this paper a class of nonparametric transfer function models is proposed to model nonlinear relationships between ‘input’ and ‘output’ time series. The transfer function is smooth with unknown functional forms, and the noise is assumed to be a stationary autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) process. The nonparametric transfer function is estimated jointly with the ARMA parameters. By modeling the correlation in the noise, the transfer function can be estimated more efficiently. The parsimonious ARMA structure improves the estimation efficiency in finite samples. The asymptotic properties of the estimators are investigated. The finite-sample properties are illustrated through simulations and one empirical example. PMID:20628584

  8. Uncertainties propagation and global sensitivity analysis of the frequency response function of piezoelectric energy harvesters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, Rafael O.; Meruane, Viviana

    2017-06-01

    The goal of this work is to describe a framework to propagate uncertainties in piezoelectric energy harvesters (PEHs). These uncertainties are related to the incomplete knowledge of the model parameters. The framework presented could be employed to conduct prior robust stochastic predictions. The prior analysis assumes a known probability density function for the uncertain variables and propagates the uncertainties to the output voltage. The framework is particularized to evaluate the behavior of the frequency response functions (FRFs) in PEHs, while its implementation is illustrated by the use of different unimorph and bimorph PEHs subjected to different scenarios: free of uncertainties, common uncertainties, and uncertainties as a product of imperfect clamping. The common variability associated with the PEH parameters are tabulated and reported. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the Sobol indices. Results indicate that the elastic modulus, density, and thickness of the piezoelectric layer are the most relevant parameters of the output variability. The importance of including the model parameter uncertainties in the estimation of the FRFs is revealed. In this sense, the present framework constitutes a powerful tool in the robust design and prediction of PEH performance.

  9. Sequential Optimization of Global Sequence Alignments Relative to Different Cost Functions

    KAUST Repository

    Odat, Enas M.

    2011-05-01

    The purpose of this dissertation is to present a methodology to model global sequence alignment problem as directed acyclic graph which helps to extract all possible optimal alignments. Moreover, a mechanism to sequentially optimize sequence alignment problem relative to different cost functions is suggested. Sequence alignment is mostly important in computational biology. It is used to find evolutionary relationships between biological sequences. There are many algo- rithms that have been developed to solve this problem. The most famous algorithms are Needleman-Wunsch and Smith-Waterman that are based on dynamic program- ming. In dynamic programming, problem is divided into a set of overlapping sub- problems and then the solution of each subproblem is found. Finally, the solutions to these subproblems are combined into a final solution. In this thesis it has been proved that for two sequences of length m and n over a fixed alphabet, the suggested optimization procedure requires O(mn) arithmetic operations per cost function on a single processor machine. The algorithm has been simulated using C#.Net programming language and a number of experiments have been done to verify the proved statements. The results of these experiments show that the number of optimal alignments is reduced after each step of optimization. Furthermore, it has been verified that as the sequence length increased linearly then the number of optimal alignments increased exponentially which also depends on the cost function that is used. Finally, the number of executed operations increases polynomially as the sequence length increase linearly.

  10. A global hybrid coupled model based on atmosphere-SST feedbacks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cimatoribus, Andrea A.; Drijfhout, Sybren S. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt (Netherlands); Dijkstra, Henk A. [Utrecht University, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2012-02-15

    A global hybrid coupled model is developed, with the aim of studying the effects of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The model includes a global ocean general circulation model and a statistical atmosphere model. The statistical atmosphere model is based on linear regressions of data from a fully coupled climate model on sea surface temperature both locally and hemispherically averaged, being the footprint of Atlantic meridional overturning variability. It provides dynamic boundary conditions to the ocean model for heat, freshwater and wind-stress. A basic but consistent representation of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks is captured in the hybrid coupled model and it is more than 10 times faster than the fully coupled climate model. The hybrid coupled model reaches a steady state with a climate close to the one of the fully coupled climate model, and the two models also have a similar response (collapse) of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to a freshwater hosing applied in the northern North Atlantic. (orig.)

  11. Global modelling of plasma-wall interaction in reversed field pinches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagatin, M.; Costa, S.; Ortolani, S.

    1989-04-01

    The impurity production and deuterium recycling mechanisms in ETA—BETA II and RFX are firstly discussed by means of a simple model applicable to a stationary plasma interacting with the wall. This gives the time constant and the saturation values of the impurity concentration as a function of the boundary temperature and density. If the latter is sufficiently high, the impurity buildup in the main plasma becomes to some extent stabilized by the shielding effect of the edge. A self-consistent global model of the time evolution of an RFP plasma interacting with the wall is then described. The bulk and edge parameters are derived by solving the energy and particle balance equations incorporating some of the basic plasma-surface processes, such as sputtering, backscattering and desorption. The application of the model to ETA-BETA II confirms the impurity concentrations of the light and metal impurities as well as the time evolution of the average electron density found experimentally under different conditions. The model is then applied to RFX, a larger RFP experiment under construction, whose wall will be protected by a full graphite armour. The time evolution of the discharge shows that carbon sputtering could increase Zeff to ~ 4, but without affecting significantly the plasma performance.

  12. Global modelling of plasma-wall interaction in reversed field pinches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bagatin, M.; Costa, S.; Ortolani, S.

    1989-01-01

    The impurity production and deuterium recycling mechanisms in ETA-BETA II and RFX are firstly discussed by means of a simple model applicable to a stationary plasma interacting with the wall. This gives the time constant and the saturation values of the impurity concentration as a function of the boundary temperature and density. If the latter is sufficiently high, the impurity buildup in the main plasma becomes to some extent stabilized by the shielding effect of the edge. A self-consistent global model of the time evolution of an RFP plasma interacting with the wall is then described. The bulk and edge parameters are derived by solving the energy and particle balance equations incorporating some of the basic plasma-surface processes, such as sputtering, backscattering and desorption. The application of the model to ETA-BETA II confirms the impurity concentrations of the light and metal impurities as well as the time evolution of the average electron density found experimentally under different conditions. The model is then applied to RFX, a larger RFP experiment under construction, whose wall will be protected by a full graphite armour. The time evolution of the discharge shows that carbon sputtering could increase Z eff to ≅ 4, but without affecting significantly the plasma performance. (orig.)

  13. Global change in the trophic functioning of marine food webs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aurore Maureaud

    Full Text Available The development of fisheries in the oceans, and other human drivers such as climate warming, have led to changes in species abundance, assemblages, trophic interactions, and ultimately in the functioning of marine food webs. Here, using a trophodynamic approach and global databases of catches and life history traits of marine species, we tested the hypothesis that anthropogenic ecological impacts may have led to changes in the global parameters defining the transfers of biomass within the food web. First, we developed two indicators to assess such changes: the Time Cumulated Indicator (TCI measuring the residence time of biomass within the food web, and the Efficiency Cumulated Indicator (ECI quantifying the fraction of secondary production reaching the top of the trophic chain. Then, we assessed, at the large marine ecosystem scale, the worldwide change of these two indicators over the 1950-2010 time-periods. Global trends were identified and cluster analyses were used to characterize the variability of trends between ecosystems. Results showed that the most common pattern over the study period is a global decrease in TCI, while the ECI indicator tends to increase. Thus, changes in species assemblages would induce faster and apparently more efficient biomass transfers in marine food webs. Results also suggested that the main driver of change over that period had been the large increase in fishing pressure. The largest changes occurred in ecosystems where 'fishing down the marine food web' are most intensive.

  14. Habitat suitability and ecological niches of different plankton functional types in the global ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogt, Meike; Brun, Philipp; Payne, Mark R.; O'Brien, Colleen J.; Bednaršek, Nina; Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Doney, Scott C.; Leblanc, Karine; Le Quéré, Corinne; Luo, Yawei; Moriarty, Róisín; O'Brien, Todd D.; Schiebel, Ralf; Swan, Chantal

    2013-04-01

    Marine plankton play a central role in the biogeochemical cycling of important elements such as carbon, nitrogen, and sulphur. While our knowledge about marine ecosystem structure and functioning is still scarce and episodic, several recent observational studies confirm that marine ecosystems have been changing due to recent climate change, overfishing, and coastal eutrophication. In order to better understand marine ecosystem dynamics, the MAREDAT initiative has recently collected abundance and biomass data for 5 autotrophic (diatoms, Phaeocystis, coccolithophores, nitrogen fixers, picophytoplankton), and 6 heterotrophic plankton functional types (PFTs; bacteria, micro-, meso- and macrozooplankton, foraminifera and pteropods). Species distribution models (SDMs) are statistical tools that can be used to derive information about species habitats in space and time. They have been used extensively for a wide range of ecological applications in terrestrial ecosystems, but here we present the first global application in the marine realm, which was made possible by the MAREDAT data synthesis effort. We use a maximum entropy SDM to simulate global habitat suitability, habitat extent and ecological niches for different PFTs in the modern ocean. Present habitat suitability is derived from presence-only MAREDAT data and the observed annual and monthly mean levels of physiologically relevant variables such as SST, nutrient concentration or photosynthetic active radiation received in the mixed layer. This information can then be used to derive ecological niches for different species or taxa within each PFT, and to compare the ecological niches of different PFTs. While these results still need verification because data was not available for all ocean regions for all PFTs, they can give a first indication what present and future plankton habitats may look like, and what consequences we may have to expect for future marine ecosystem functioning and service provision in a warmer

  15. [Comparison of three daily global solar radiation models].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jin-Ming; Fan, Wen-Yi; Zhao, Ying-Hui

    2014-08-01

    Three daily global solar radiation estimation models ( Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al.) were analyzed and compared using data of 13 weather stations from 1982 to 2012 from three northeastern provinces and eastern Inner Mongolia. After cross-validation analysis, the result showed that mean absolute error (MAE) for each model was 1.71, 2.83 and 1.68 MJ x m(-2) x d(-1) respectively, showing that Å-P model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. which used percentage of sunshine had an advantage over Thornton-Running model which didn't use percentage of sunshine. Model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. played a good effect on the situation of non-sunshine, and its MAE and bias percentage were 18.5% and 33.8% smaller than those of Å-P model, respectively. High precision results could be obtained by using the simple linear model of Å-P. Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. overvalued daily global solar radiation by 12.2%, 19.2% and 9.9% respectively. MAE for each station varied little with the spatial change of location, and annual MAE decreased with the advance of years. The reason for this might be that the change of observation accuracy caused by the replacement of radiation instrument in 1993. MAEs for rainy days, non-sunshine days and warm seasons of the three models were greater than those for days without rain, sunshine days and cold seasons respectively, showing that different methods should be used for different weather conditions on estimating solar radiation with meteorological elements.

  16. Co-occurrence of communication disorder and psychiatric disorders in maltreated children and adolescents: relationship with global functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stivanin, Luciene; Oliveira, Christian C de; Santos, Fernanda P Dos; Santos, Bernardo Dos; Scivoletto, Sandra

    2016-03-01

    To study the co-occurrence of psychiatric disorders (PD) and communication disorders (CD) and their relationship with global functioning in maltreated children and adolescents. The sample comprised 143 maltreated children and adolescents (55.8% male). All underwent clinical communication and psychiatric evaluations, as well as global functioning assessment using the Children's Global Assessment Scale (C-GAS). Four groups emerged from evaluation: Group 1 (n=7, 4.9%) did not exhibit any disorders; Group 2 (n=26, 18.2%) exhibited PD; Group 3 (n=34, 23.8%) exhibited CD; and Group 4 (n=76, 53.1%) exhibited both PD and CD on evaluation. Significant differences in global functioning scores were found between G1 and G2, G1 and G4, G2 and G4, and G3 and G4, with the highest C-GAS scores found in G1 and the lowest in G4. Rates of PD and CD are high in this maltreated population. The presence of PD has a major impact on C-GAS score, and the simultaneous presence of CD increases the already impaired function of PD. Demonstration of the additive effects of PD and CD on youth functioning suggests that professionals should be alert to the presence of both disorders to better act preventively and therapeutically in a high-risk population.

  17. Relationship of amotivation to neurocognition, self-efficacy and functioning in first-episode psychosis: a structural equation modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, W C; Kwong, V W Y; Hui, C L M; Chan, S K W; Lee, E H M; Chen, E Y H

    2017-03-01

    Better understanding of the complex interplay among key determinants of functional outcome is crucial to promoting recovery in psychotic disorders. However, this is understudied in the early course of illness. We aimed to examine the relationships among negative symptoms, neurocognition, general self-efficacy and global functioning in first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients using structural equation modeling (SEM). Three hundred and twenty-one Chinese patients aged 26-55 years presenting with FEP to an early intervention program in Hong Kong were recruited. Assessments encompassing symptom profiles, functioning, perceived general self-efficacy and a battery of neurocognitive tests were conducted. Negative symptom measurement was subdivided into amotivation and diminished expression (DE) domain scores based on the ratings in the Scale for the Assessment of Negative Symptoms. An initial SEM model showed no significant association between functioning and DE which was removed from further analysis. A final trimmed model yielded very good model fit (χ2 = 15.48, p = 0.63; comparative fit index = 1.00; root mean square error of approximation amotivation, neurocognition and general self-efficacy had a direct effect on global functioning. Amotivation was also found to mediate a significant indirect effect of neurocognition and general self-efficacy on functioning. Neurocognition was not significantly related to general self-efficacy. Our results indicate a critical intermediary role of amotivation in linking neurocognitive impairment to functioning in FEP. General self-efficacy may represent a promising treatment target for improvement of motivational deficits and functional outcome in the early illness stage.

  18. Model-based synthesis of locally contingent responses to global market signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magliocca, N. R.

    2015-12-01

    Rural livelihoods and the land systems on which they depend are increasingly influenced by distant markets through economic globalization. Place-based analyses of land and livelihood system sustainability must then consider both proximate and distant influences on local decision-making. Thus, advancing land change theory in the context of economic globalization calls for a systematic understanding of the general processes as well as local contingencies shaping local responses to global signals. Synthesis of insights from place-based case studies of land and livelihood change is a path forward for developing such systematic knowledge. This paper introduces a model-based synthesis approach to investigating the influence of local socio-environmental and agent-level factors in mediating land-use and livelihood responses to changing global market signals. A generalized agent-based modeling framework is applied to six case-study sites that differ in environmental conditions, market access and influence, and livelihood settings. The largest modeled land conversions and livelihood transitions to market-oriented production occurred in sties with relatively productive agricultural land and/or with limited livelihood options. Experimental shifts in the distributions of agents' risk tolerances generally acted to attenuate or amplify responses to changes in global market signals. Importantly, however, responses of agents at different points in the risk tolerance distribution varied widely, with the wealth gap growing wider between agents with higher or lower risk tolerance. These results demonstrate model-based synthesis is a promising approach to overcome many of the challenges of current synthesis methods in land change science, and to identify generalized as well as locally contingent responses to global market signals.

  19. What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Winsemius, Hessel

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, several global scale flood risk models have become available. Within the scientific community these have been, and are being, used to assess and map the current levels of risk faced by countries and societies. Increasingly, they are also being used to assess how that level of risk may change in the future, under scenarios of climate change and/or socioeconomic development. More and more, these 'quick and not so dirty' methods are also being used in practice, for a large range of uses and applications, and by an increasing range of practitioners and decision makers. For example, assessments can be used by: International Financing Institutes for prioritising investments in the most promising natural disaster risk reduction measures and strategies; intra-national institutes in the monitoring of progress on risk reduction activities; the (re-)insurance industry in assessing their risk portfolios and potential changes in those portfolios under climate change; by multinational companies in assessing risks to their regional investments and supply chains; and by international aid organisations for improved resource planning. However, global scale flood risk models clearly have their limits, and therefore both modellers and users need to critically address the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. This contribution is intended to start a dialogue between model developers, users, and decision makers to better answer this question. We will provide a number of examples of how the GLOFRIS global flood risk model has recently been used in several practical applications, and share both the positive and negative insights gained through these experiences. We wish to discuss similar experiences with other groups of modelers, users, and decision-makers, in order to better understand and harness the potential of this new generation of models, understand the differences in model approaches followed and their impacts on applicability, and develop

  20. An integrated model to simulate sown area changes for major crops at a global scale

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHIBASAKI; Ryosuke

    2008-01-01

    Dynamics of land use systems have attracted much attention from scientists around the world due to their ecological and socio-economic implications. An integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of four major crops (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) on a global scale is pre- sented. To do so, a crop choice model was developed on the basis of Multinomial Logit (Logit) model to model land users’ decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives with using a crop utility function. A GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted to simulate the crop yields under a given geophysical environment and farming management conditions, while the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model was utilized to estimate crop price in the international market. The crop choice model was linked with the GIS-based EPIC model and the IFPSIM model through data exchange. This integrated model was then validated against the FAO statistical data in 2001-2003 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) global land cover product in 2001. Both validation approaches indicated reliability of the model for ad- dressing the dynamics in agricultural land use and its capability for long-term scenario analysis. Finally, the model application was designed to run over a time period of 30 a, taking the year 2000 as baseline. The model outcomes can help understand and explain the causes, locations and consequences of land use changes, and provide support for land use planning and policy making.

  1. An integrated model to simulate sown area changes for major crops at a global scale

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU WenBin; YANG Peng; MENG ChaoYing; SHIBASAKI Ryosuke; ZHOU QingBo; TANG HuaJun; SHI Yun

    2008-01-01

    Dynamics of land use systems have attracted much attention from scientists around the world due to their ecological and socio-economic implications. An integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of four major crops (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) on a global scale is presented. To do so, a crop choice model was developed on the basis of Multinomial Logit (Logit) model to model land users' decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives with using a crop utility function. A GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted to simulate the crop yields under a given geophysical environment and farming management conditions,while the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model was utilized to estimate crop price in the international market. The crop choice model was linked with the GIS-based EPIC model and the IFPSIM model through data exchange. This integrated model was then validated against the FAO statistical data in 2001-2003 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)global land cover product in 2001. Both validation approaches indicated reliability of the model for addressing the dynamics in agricultural land use and its capability for long-term scenario analysis. Finally,the model application was designed to run over a time period of 30 a, taking the year 2000 as baseline.The model outcomes can help understand and explain the causes, locations and consequences of land use changes, and provide support for land use planning and policy making.

  2. Examples of testing global identifiability of biological and biomedical models with the DAISY software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saccomani, Maria Pia; Audoly, Stefania; Bellu, Giuseppina; D'Angiò, Leontina

    2010-04-01

    DAISY (Differential Algebra for Identifiability of SYstems) is a recently developed computer algebra software tool which can be used to automatically check global identifiability of (linear and) nonlinear dynamic models described by differential equations involving polynomial or rational functions. Global identifiability is a fundamental prerequisite for model identification which is important not only for biological or medical systems but also for many physical and engineering systems derived from first principles. Lack of identifiability implies that the parameter estimation techniques may not fail but any obtained numerical estimates will be meaningless. The software does not require understanding of the underlying mathematical principles and can be used by researchers in applied fields with a minimum of mathematical background. We illustrate the DAISY software by checking the a priori global identifiability of two benchmark nonlinear models taken from the literature. The analysis of these two examples includes comparison with other methods and demonstrates how identifiability analysis is simplified by this tool. Thus we illustrate the identifiability analysis of other two examples, by including discussion of some specific aspects related to the role of observability and knowledge of initial conditions in testing identifiability and to the computational complexity of the software. The main focus of this paper is not on the description of the mathematical background of the algorithm, which has been presented elsewhere, but on illustrating its use and on some of its more interesting features. DAISY is available on the web site http://www.dei.unipd.it/ approximately pia/. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Creating Flexible and Sustainable Work Models for Academic Obstetrician-Gynecologists Engaged in Global Health Work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Rose; Boatin, Adeline; Farid, Huma; Luckett, Rebecca; Neo, Dayna; Ricciotti, Hope; Scott, Jennifer

    2017-10-01

    To describe various work models for obstetrics and gynecology global health faculty affiliated with academic medical centers and to identify barriers and opportunities for pursuing global health work. A mixed-methods study was conducted in 2016 among obstetrics and gynecology faculty and leaders from seven academic medical institutions in Boston, Massachusetts. Global health faculty members were invited to complete an online survey about their work models and to participate in semistructured interviews about barriers and facilitators of these models. Department chairs and residency directors were asked to participate in interviews. The survey response rate among faculty was 65.6% (21/32), of which 76.2% (16/21) completed an interview. Five department leaders (45.5% [5/11]) participated in an interview. Faculty described a range of work models with varied time and compensation, but only one third reported contracted time for global health work. The most common barriers to global health work were financial constraints, time limitations, lack of mentorship, need for specialized training, and maintenance of clinical skills. Career satisfaction, creating value for the obstetrics and gynecology department, and work model flexibility were the most important facilitators of sustainable global health careers. The study identified challenges and opportunities to creating flexible and sustainable work models for academic obstetrics and gynecology clinicians engaged in global health work. Additional research and innovation are needed to identify work models that allow for sustainable careers in global women's health. There are opportunities to create professional standards and models for academic global health work in the obstetrics and gynecology specialty.

  4. Combining observations and models to reduce uncertainty in the cloud response to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, J. R.; Myers, T.; Chellappan, S.

    2017-12-01

    Currently there is large uncertainty on how subtropical low-level clouds will respond to global warming and whether they will act as a positive feedback or negative feedback. Global climate models substantially agree on what changes in atmospheric structure and circulation will occur with global warming but greatly disagree over how clouds will respond to these changes in structure and circulation. An examination of models with the most realistic simulations of low-level cloudiness indicates that the model cloud response to atmospheric changes associated with global warming is quantitatively similar to the model cloud response to atmospheric changes at interannual time scales. For these models, the cloud response to global warming predicted by multilinear regression using coefficients derived from interannual time scales is quantitatively similar to the cloud response to global warming directly simulated by the model. Since there is a large spread among cloud response coefficients even among models with the most realistic cloud simulations, substitution of coefficients derived from satellite observations reduces the uncertainty range of the low-level cloud feedback. Increased sea surface temperature associated with global warming acts to reduce low-level cloudiness, which is partially offset by increased lower tropospheric stratification that acts to enhance low-level cloudiness. Changes in free-tropospheric relative humidity, subsidence, and horizontal advection have only a small impact on low-level cloud. The net reduction in subtropical low-level cloudiness increases absorption of solar radiation by the climate system, thus resulting in a weak positive feedback.

  5. Shifts in nitrogen acquisition strategies enable enhanced terrestrial carbon storage under elevated CO2 in a global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulman, B. N.; Brzostek, E. R.; Menge, D.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.

    2017-12-01

    Earth System Model (ESM) projections of terrestrial carbon (C) uptake are critical to understanding the future of the global C cycle. Current ESMs include intricate representations of photosynthetic C fixation in plants, allowing them to simulate the stimulatory effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 levels on photosynthesis. However, they lack sophisticated representations of plant nutrient acquisition, calling into question their ability to project the future land C sink. We conducted simulations using a new model of terrestrial C and nitrogen (N) cycling within the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global land model LM4 that uses a return on investment framework to simulate global patterns of N acquisition via fixation of N2 from the atmosphere, scavenging of inorganic N from soil solution, and mining of organic N from soil organic matter (SOM). We show that these strategies drive divergent C cycle responses to elevated CO2 at the ecosystem scale, with the scavenging strategy leading to N limitation of plant growth and the mining strategy facilitating stimulation of plant biomass accumulation over decadal time scales. In global simulations, shifts in N acquisition from inorganic N scavenging to organic N mining along with increases in N fixation supported long-term acceleration of C uptake under elevated CO2. Our results indicate that the ability of the land C sink to mitigate atmospheric CO2 levels is tightly coupled to the functional diversity of ecosystems and their capacity to change their N acquisition strategies over time. Incorporation of these mechanisms into ESMs is necessary to improve confidence in model projections of the global C cycle.

  6. Flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model. A modeling tool for the climate change research community

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Yimin; Wang, Bin

    2014-01-01

    First book available on systematic evaluations of the performance of the global climate model FGOALS. Covers the whole field, ranging from the development to the applications of this climate system model. Provide an outlook for the future development of the FGOALS model system. Offers brief introduction about how to run FGOALS. Coupled climate system models are of central importance for climate studies. A new model known as FGOALS (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model), has been developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP, CAS), a first-tier national geophysical laboratory. It serves as a powerful tool, both for deepening our understanding of fundamental mechanisms of the climate system and for making decadal prediction and scenario projections of future climate change. ''Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community'' is the first book to offer systematic evaluations of this model's performance. It is comprehensive in scope, covering both developmental and application-oriented aspects of this climate system model. It also provides an outlook of future development of FGOALS and offers an overview of how to employ the model. It represents a valuable reference work for researchers and professionals working within the related areas of climate variability and change.

  7. Orographic precipitation at global and regional scales: Observational uncertainty and evaluation of 25-km global model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiemann, Reinhard; Roberts, Charles J.; Bush, Stephanie; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Strachan, Jane; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Roberts, Malcolm J.

    2015-04-01

    Precipitation over land exhibits a high degree of variability due to the complex interaction of the precipitation generating atmospheric processes with coastlines, the heterogeneous land surface, and orography. Global general circulation models (GCMs) have traditionally had very limited ability to capture this variability on the mesoscale (here ~50-500 km) due to their low resolution. This has changed with recent investments in resolution and ensembles of multidecadal climate simulations of atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) with ~25 km grid spacing are becoming increasingly available. Here, we evaluate the mesoscale precipitation distribution in one such set of simulations obtained in the UPSCALE (UK on PrACE - weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) modelling campaign with the HadGEM-GA3 AGCM. Increased model resolution also poses new challenges to the observational datasets used to evaluate models. Global gridded data products such as those provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) are invaluable for assessing large-scale features of the precipitation distribution but may not sufficiently resolve mesoscale structures. In the absence of independent estimates, the intercomparison of different observational datasets may be the only way to get some insight into the uncertainties associated with these observations. Here, we focus on mid-latitude continental regions where observations based on higher-density gauge networks are available in addition to the global data sets: Europe/the Alps, South and East Asia, and the continental US. The ability of GCMs to represent mesoscale variability is of interest in its own right, as climate information on this scale is required by impact studies. An additional motivation for the research proposed here arises from continuing efforts to quantify the components of the global radiation budget and water cycle. Recent estimates based on radiation measurements suggest that the global mean

  8. Developing and testing a global-scale regression model to quantify mean annual streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbarossa, Valerio; Huijbregts, Mark A. J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Clavreul, Julie; King, Henry; Schipper, Aafke M.

    2017-01-01

    Quantifying mean annual flow of rivers (MAF) at ungauged sites is essential for assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. MAF can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict MAF based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. In this study, we developed a global-scale regression model for MAF based on a dataset unprecedented in size, using observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from 1885 catchments worldwide, measuring between 2 and 106 km2. In addition, we compared the performance of the regression model with the predictive ability of the spatially explicit global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB by comparing results from both models to independent measurements. We obtained a regression model explaining 89% of the variance in MAF based on catchment area and catchment averaged mean annual precipitation and air temperature, slope and elevation. The regression model performed better than PCR-GLOBWB for the prediction of MAF, as root-mean-square error (RMSE) values were lower (0.29-0.38 compared to 0.49-0.57) and the modified index of agreement (d) was higher (0.80-0.83 compared to 0.72-0.75). Our regression model can be applied globally to estimate MAF at any point of the river network, thus providing a feasible alternative to spatially explicit process-based global hydrological models.

  9. Global solution for a chemotactic haptotactic model of cancer invasion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Youshan; Wang, Mingjun

    2008-10-01

    This paper deals with a mathematical model of cancer invasion of tissue recently proposed by Chaplain and Lolas. The model consists of a reaction-diffusion-taxis partial differential equation (PDE) describing the evolution of tumour cell density, a reaction-diffusion PDE governing the evolution of the proteolytic enzyme concentration and an ordinary differential equation modelling the proteolysis of the extracellular matrix (ECM). In addition to random motion, the tumour cells are directed not only by haptotaxis (cellular locomotion directed in response to a concentration gradient of adhesive molecules along the ECM) but also by chemotaxis (cellular locomotion directed in response to a concentration gradient of the diffusible proteolytic enzyme). In one space dimension, the global existence and uniqueness of a classical solution to this combined chemotactic-haptotactic model is proved for any chemotactic coefficient χ > 0. In two and three space dimensions, the global existence is proved for small χ/μ (where μ is the logistic growth rate of the tumour cells). The fundamental point of proof is to raise the regularity of a solution from L1 to Lp (p > 1). Furthermore, the existence of blow-up solutions to a sub-model in two space dimensions for large χ shows, to some extent, that the condition that χ/μ is small is necessary for the global existence of a solution to the full model.

  10. Global consensus for discrete-time competitive systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shih, C.-W.; Tseng, J.-P.

    2009-01-01

    Grossberg established a remarkable convergence theorem for a class of competitive systems without knowing and using Lyapunov function for the systems. We present the parallel investigations for the discrete-time version of the Grossberg's model. Through developing an extended component-competing analysis for the coupled system, without knowing a Lyapunov function and applying the LaSalle's invariance principle, the global pattern formation or the so-called global consensus for the system can be achieved. A numerical simulation is performed to illustrate the present theory.

  11. Global change and sustainable development. A modelling perspective for the next decade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rotmans, J.; Van Asselt, M.B.A.; De Bruin, A.J.; Den Elzen, M.G.J.; De greef, J.; Hilderink, H.; Hoekstra, A.Y.; Janssen, M.A.; Koester, H.W.; Martens, W.J.M.; Niessen, L.W.; De Vries, H.J.M.

    1994-06-01

    The main objective of the title program is to develop an integrated modelling framework for analysing global change and sustainable development. The framework to be developed is referred to as TARGETS: Tool to Assess Regional and Global Environmental and health Targets for Sustainability. The research is based on a systems-based, integrated modelling approach and has a multi- and interdisciplinary character. A top-down approach is chosen: analysis starts at the global level and will be disaggregated to the level of major world regions. Alliance has been sought with the IMAGE project team in regard to data collection, regionalization and aggregation levels. The modelling framework is to be used by both researchers and policy analysts. In this report attention is paid to the requirements of an integrated systems approach (a multi-disciplinary systems analysis, quantification of uncertainties, and visualization of various system perspectives); the TARGETS model; the use of sustainability indicators to monitor the pressure on, the status of, and the impact on the global environment, which are linked to TARGETS; the scientific and cultural perspectives from which to describe and evaluate the global change phenomenon; the expected results; and finally the organizational embedment of the title programme. 19 figs., 3 tabs., 200 refs

  12. Beyond the global assessment of functioning: learning from Virginia Apgar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimsdale, Joel E; Jeste, Dilip V; Patterson, Thomas L

    2010-01-01

    The Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) scale is widely used in psychiatry, yet it has certain drawbacks. The authors seek to generate further discussion and research around developing an improved successor to the GAF. The authors used the Apgar scale as a template for constructing a possible successor to the GAF. Consulting with 16 colleagues, they selected 5 domains that were felt to be central to functioning in psychiatric patients. Psychiatrists in diverse clinical settings then completed both a GAF and a Psychiatric Apgar scale on 40 patients. The two scales were found to agree significantly. Use of the Psychiatric Apgar, however, provides clearer guidance about assessing functioning. The GAF was a brilliant addition to psychiatric practice. As we develop the next Diagnostic and Statistical Manual, it is pertinent to ask whether the GAF approach could be optimized even further by applying the lessons of Virginia Apgar.

  13. A fuzzy-based model to implement the global safety buildings index assessment for agri-food buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Barreca

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The latest EU policies focus on the issue of food safety with a view to ensuring adequate and standard quality levels for the food produced and/or consumed within the EC. To that purpose, the environment where agricultural products are manufactured and processed plays a crucial role in achieving food hygiene. As a consequence, it is of the outmost importance to adopt proper building solutions which meet health and hygiene requirements as well as to use suitable tools to measure the levels achieved. Similarly, it is necessary to verify and evaluate the level of workers’ safety and welfare in their working environment. Workers’ safety has not only an ethical and social value but also an economic implication, since possible accidents or environmental stressors are the major causes of the lower efficiency and productivity of workers. Therefore, it is fundamental to design suitable models of analysis that allow assessing buildings as a whole, taking into account both health and hygiene safety as well as workers’ safety and welfare. Hence, this paper proposes an assessment model that, based on an established study protocol and on the application of a fuzzy logic procedure, allows assessing the global safety level of an agri-food building by means of a global safety buildings index. The model here presented is original since it uses fuzzy logic to evaluate the performances of both the technical and environmental systems of an agri-food building in terms of health and hygiene safety of the manufacturing process as well as of workers’ health and safety. The result of the assessment is expressed through a triangular fuzzy membership function which allows carrying out comparative analyses of different buildings. A specific procedure was developed to apply the model to a case study which tested its operational simplicity and the validity of its results. The proposed model allows obtaining a synthetic and global value of the building performance of

  14. The Community Water Model (CWATM) / Development of a community driven global water model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burek, Peter; Satoh, Yusuke; Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-04-01

    With a growing population and economic development, it is expected that water demands will increase significantly in the future, especially in developing regions. At the same time, climate change is expected to alter spatial patterns of hydrological cycle and will have global, regional and local impacts on water availability. Thus, it is important to assess water supply, water demand and environmental needs over time to identify the populations and locations that will be most affected by these changes linked to water scarcity, droughts and floods. The Community Water Model (CWATM) will be designed for this purpose in that it includes an accounting of how future water demands will evolve in response to socioeconomic change and how water availability will change in response to climate. CWATM represents one of the new key elements of IIASA's Water program. It has been developed to work flexibly at both global and regional level at different spatial resolutions. The model is open source and community-driven to promote our work amongst the wider water community worldwide and is flexible enough linking to further planned developments such as water quality and hydro-economic modules. CWATM will be a basis to develop a next-generation global hydro-economic modeling framework that represents the economic trade-offs among different water management options over a basin looking at water supply infrastructure and demand managements. The integrated modeling framework will consider water demand from agriculture, domestic, energy, industry and environment, investment needs to alleviate future water scarcity, and will provide a portfolio of economically optimal solutions for achieving future water management options under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) for example. In addition, it will be able to track the energy requirements associated with the water supply system e.g., pumping, desalination and interbasin transfer to realize the linkage with the water-energy economy. In

  15. Global dynamics of multi-group SEI animal disease models with indirect transmission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Yi; Cao, Jinde

    2014-01-01

    A challenge to multi-group epidemic models in mathematical epidemiology is the exploration of global dynamics. Here we formulate multi-group SEI animal disease models with indirect transmission via contaminated water. Under biologically motivated assumptions, the basic reproduction number R 0 is derived and established as a sharp threshold that completely determines the global dynamics of the system. In particular, we prove that if R 0 <1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and the disease dies out; whereas if R 0 >1, then the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and thus unique, and the disease persists in all groups. Since the weight matrix for weighted digraphs may be reducible, the afore-mentioned approach is not directly applicable to our model. For the proofs we utilize the classical method of Lyapunov, graph-theoretic results developed recently and a new combinatorial identity. Since the multiple transmission pathways may correspond to the real world, the obtained results are of biological significance and possible generalizations of the model are also discussed

  16. The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

  17. GLOFRIM v1.0-A globally applicable computational framework for integrated hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoch, Jannis M.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Baart, Fedor; Van Beek, Rens; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Bates, Paul D.; Bierkens, Marc F.P.

    2017-01-01

    We here present GLOFRIM, a globally applicable computational framework for integrated hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling. GLOFRIM facilitates spatially explicit coupling of hydrodynamic and hydrologic models and caters for an ensemble of models to be coupled. It currently encompasses the global

  18. Evaluation of global continental hydrology as simulated by the Land-surface Processes and eXchanges Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Murray

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Global freshwater resources are sensitive to changes in climate, land cover and population density and distribution. The Land-surface Processes and eXchanges Dynamic Global Vegetation Model is a recent development of the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model with improved representation of fire-vegetation interactions. It allows simultaneous consideration of the effects of changes in climate, CO2 concentration, natural vegetation and fire regime shifts on the continental hydrological cycle. Here the model is assessed for its ability to simulate large-scale spatial and temporal runoff patterns, in order to test its suitability for modelling future global water resources. Comparisons are made against observations of streamflow and a composite dataset of modelled and observed runoff (1986–1995 and are also evaluated against soil moisture data and the Palmer Drought Severity Index. The model captures the main features of the geographical distribution of global runoff, but tends to overestimate runoff in much of the Northern Hemisphere (where this can be somewhat accounted for by freshwater consumption and the unrealistic accumulation of the simulated winter snowpack in permafrost regions and the southern tropics. Interannual variability is represented reasonably well at the large catchment scale, as are seasonal flow timings and monthly high and low flow events. Further improvements to the simulation of intra-annual runoff might be achieved via the addition of river flow routing. Overestimates of runoff in some basins could likely be corrected by the inclusion of transmission losses and direct-channel evaporation.

  19. Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 31; Global Surface Ocean Carbon Estimates in a Model Forced by MERRA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Watson W.; Casey, Nancy W.; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

    2013-01-01

    MERRA products were used to force an established ocean biogeochemical model to estimate surface carbon inventories and fluxes in the global oceans. The results were compared to public archives of in situ carbon data and estimates. The model exhibited skill for ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), partial pressure of ocean CO2 (pCO2) and air-sea fluxes (FCO2). The MERRA-forced model produced global mean differences of 0.02% (approximately 0.3 microns) for DIC, -0.3% (about -1.2 (micro) atm; model lower) for pCO2, and -2.3% (-0.003 mol C/sq m/y) for FCO2 compared to in situ estimates. Basin-scale distributions were significantly correlated with observations for all three variables (r=0.97, 0.76, and 0.73, P<0.05, respectively for DIC, pCO2, and FCO2). All major oceanographic basins were represented as sources to the atmosphere or sinks in agreement with in situ estimates. However, there were substantial basin-scale and local departures.

  20. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

    2012-09-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

  1. Physical Frailty Is Associated with Longitudinal Decline in Global Cognitive Function in Non-Demented Older Adults: A Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, S; Honda, T; Narazaki, K; Chen, T; Kishimoto, H; Haeuchi, Y; Kumagai, S

    2018-01-01

    To assess the relationship between physical frailty and subsequent decline in global cognitive function in the non-demented elderly. A prospective population-based study in a west Japanese suburban town, with two-year follow-up. Community-dwellers aged 65 and older without placement in long-term care, and not having a history of dementia, Parkinson's disease and depression at baseline, who participated in the cohort of the Sasaguri Genkimon Study and underwent follow-up assessments two years later (N = 1,045). Global cognitive function was assessed using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA). Physical frailty was identified according to the following five components: weight loss, low grip strength, exhaustion, slow gait speed and low physical activities. Linear regression models were used to examine associations between baseline frailty status and the MoCA scores at follow-up. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the risk of cognitive decline (defined as at least two points decrease of MoCA score) according to baseline frailty status. Seven hundred and eight non-demented older adults were included in the final analyses (mean age: 72.6 ± 5.5 years, male 40.3%); 5.8% were frail, and 40.8% were prefrail at baseline. One hundred and fifty nine (22.5%) participants experienced cognitive decline over two years. After adjustment for baseline MoCA scores and all confounders, being frail at baseline was significantly associated with a decline of 1.48 points (95% confidence interval [CI], -2.37 to -0.59) in MoCA scores, as compared with non-frailty. Frail persons were over two times more likely to experience cognitive decline (adjusted odds ratio 2.28; 95% CI, 1.02 to 5.08), compared to non-frail persons. Physical frailty is associated with longitudinal decline in global cognitive function in the non-demented older adults over a period of two years. Physically frail older community-dwellers should be closely monitored for cognitive decline that can be

  2. Steady-state global optimization of metabolic non-linear dynamic models through recasting into power-law canonical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozo, Carlos; Marín-Sanguino, Alberto; Alves, Rui; Guillén-Gosálbez, Gonzalo; Jiménez, Laureano; Sorribas, Albert

    2011-08-25

    Design of newly engineered microbial strains for biotechnological purposes would greatly benefit from the development of realistic mathematical models for the processes to be optimized. Such models can then be analyzed and, with the development and application of appropriate optimization techniques, one could identify the modifications that need to be made to the organism in order to achieve the desired biotechnological goal. As appropriate models to perform such an analysis are necessarily non-linear and typically non-convex, finding their global optimum is a challenging task. Canonical modeling techniques, such as Generalized Mass Action (GMA) models based on the power-law formalism, offer a possible solution to this problem because they have a mathematical structure that enables the development of specific algorithms for global optimization. Based on the GMA canonical representation, we have developed in previous works a highly efficient optimization algorithm and a set of related strategies for understanding the evolution of adaptive responses in cellular metabolism. Here, we explore the possibility of recasting kinetic non-linear models into an equivalent GMA model, so that global optimization on the recast GMA model can be performed. With this technique, optimization is greatly facilitated and the results are transposable to the original non-linear problem. This procedure is straightforward for a particular class of non-linear models known as Saturable and Cooperative (SC) models that extend the power-law formalism to deal with saturation and cooperativity. Our results show that recasting non-linear kinetic models into GMA models is indeed an appropriate strategy that helps overcoming some of the numerical difficulties that arise during the global optimization task.

  3. Steady-state global optimization of metabolic non-linear dynamic models through recasting into power-law canonical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sorribas Albert

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Design of newly engineered microbial strains for biotechnological purposes would greatly benefit from the development of realistic mathematical models for the processes to be optimized. Such models can then be analyzed and, with the development and application of appropriate optimization techniques, one could identify the modifications that need to be made to the organism in order to achieve the desired biotechnological goal. As appropriate models to perform such an analysis are necessarily non-linear and typically non-convex, finding their global optimum is a challenging task. Canonical modeling techniques, such as Generalized Mass Action (GMA models based on the power-law formalism, offer a possible solution to this problem because they have a mathematical structure that enables the development of specific algorithms for global optimization. Results Based on the GMA canonical representation, we have developed in previous works a highly efficient optimization algorithm and a set of related strategies for understanding the evolution of adaptive responses in cellular metabolism. Here, we explore the possibility of recasting kinetic non-linear models into an equivalent GMA model, so that global optimization on the recast GMA model can be performed. With this technique, optimization is greatly facilitated and the results are transposable to the original non-linear problem. This procedure is straightforward for a particular class of non-linear models known as Saturable and Cooperative (SC models that extend the power-law formalism to deal with saturation and cooperativity. Conclusions Our results show that recasting non-linear kinetic models into GMA models is indeed an appropriate strategy that helps overcoming some of the numerical difficulties that arise during the global optimization task.

  4. Flood Inundation Modelling Under Uncertainty Using Globally and Freely Available Remote Sensing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, K.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Giustarini, L.; Solomatine, D. P.

    2012-04-01

    The extreme consequences of recent catastrophic events have highlighted that flood risk prevention still needs to be improved to reduce human losses and economic damages, which have considerably increased worldwide in recent years. Flood risk management and long term floodplain planning are vital for living with floods, which is the currently proposed approach to cope with floods. To support the decision making processes, a significant issue is the availability of data to build appropriate and reliable models, from which the needed information could be obtained. The desirable data for model building, calibration and validation are often not sufficient or available. A unique opportunity is offered nowadays by globally available data which can be freely downloaded from internet. This might open new opportunities for filling the gap between available and needed data, in order to build reliable models and potentially lead to the development of global inundation models to produce floodplain maps for the entire globe. However, there remains the question of what is the real potential of those global remote sensing data, characterized by different accuracy, for global inundation monitoring and how to integrate them with inundation models. This research aims at contributing to understand whether the current globally and freely available remote sensing data (e.g. SRTM, SAR) can be actually used to appropriately support inundation modelling. In this study, the SRTM DEM is used for hydraulic model building, while ENVISAT-ASAR satellite imagery is used for model validation. To test the usefulness of these globally and freely available data, a model based on the high resolution LiDAR DEM and ground data (high water marks) is used as benchmark. The work is carried out on a data-rich test site: the River Alzette in the north of Luxembourg City. Uncertainties are estimated for both SRTM and LiDAR based models. Probabilistic flood inundation maps are produced under the framework of

  5. Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperna Weiland, Frederiek C.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; van Beek, Rens (L.) P. H.; Weerts, Albrecht H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2015-10-01

    In the past decades significant progress has been made in the fitting of hydrologic models to data. Most of this work has focused on simple, CPU-efficient, lumped hydrologic models using discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, or tracer data from relatively small river basins. In this paper, we focus on large-scale hydrologic modeling and analyze the effect of parameter and rainfall data uncertainty on simulated discharge dynamics with the global hydrologic model PCR-GLOBWB. We use three rainfall data products; the CFSR reanalysis, the ERA-Interim reanalysis, and a combined ERA-40 reanalysis and CRU dataset. Parameter uncertainty is derived from Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) using monthly discharge data from five of the largest river systems in the world. Our results demonstrate that the default parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB, derived from global datasets, can be improved by calibrating the model against monthly discharge observations. Yet, it is difficult to find a single parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB that works well for all of the five river basins considered herein and shows consistent performance during both the calibration and evaluation period. Still there may be possibilities for regionalization based on catchment similarities. Our simulations illustrate that parameter uncertainty constitutes only a minor part of predictive uncertainty. Thus, the apparent dichotomy between simulations of global-scale hydrologic behavior and actual data cannot be resolved by simply increasing the model complexity of PCR-GLOBWB and resolving sub-grid processes. Instead, it would be more productive to improve the characterization of global rainfall amounts at spatial resolutions of 0.5° and smaller.

  6. Flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model. A modeling tool for the climate change research community

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Yimin; Wang, Bin (eds.) [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, (China). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

    2014-04-01

    First book available on systematic evaluations of the performance of the global climate model FGOALS. Covers the whole field, ranging from the development to the applications of this climate system model. Provide an outlook for the future development of the FGOALS model system. Offers brief introduction about how to run FGOALS. Coupled climate system models are of central importance for climate studies. A new model known as FGOALS (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model), has been developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP, CAS), a first-tier national geophysical laboratory. It serves as a powerful tool, both for deepening our understanding of fundamental mechanisms of the climate system and for making decadal prediction and scenario projections of future climate change. ''Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community'' is the first book to offer systematic evaluations of this model's performance. It is comprehensive in scope, covering both developmental and application-oriented aspects of this climate system model. It also provides an outlook of future development of FGOALS and offers an overview of how to employ the model. It represents a valuable reference work for researchers and professionals working within the related areas of climate variability and change.

  7. Modeling global scene factors in attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torralba, Antonio

    2003-07-01

    Models of visual attention have focused predominantly on bottom-up approaches that ignored structured contextual and scene information. I propose a model of contextual cueing for attention guidance based on the global scene configuration. It is shown that the statistics of low-level features across the whole image can be used to prime the presence or absence of objects in the scene and to predict their location, scale, and appearance before exploring the image. In this scheme, visual context information can become available early in the visual processing chain, which allows modulation of the saliency of image regions and provides an efficient shortcut for object detection and recognition. 2003 Optical Society of America

  8. An Effective Model for Improving Global Health Nursing Competence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Sun-Joo

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposed an effective model for improving global health nursing competence among undergraduate students. A descriptive case study was conducted by evaluation of four implemented programs by the author. All programs were conducted with students majoring in nursing and healthcare, where the researcher was a program director, professor, or facilitator. These programs were analyzed in terms of students' needs assessment, program design, and implementation and evaluation factors. The concept and composition of global nursing competence, identified within previous studies, were deemed appropriate in all of our programs. Program composition varied from curricular to extracurricular domains. During the implementation phase, some of the programs included non-Korean students to improve cultural diversity and overcome language barriers. Qualitative and quantitative surveys were conducted to assess program efficacy. Data triangulation from students' reflective journals was examined. Additionally, students' awareness regarding changes within global health nursing, improved critical thinking, cultural understanding, and global leadership skills were investigated pre- and post-program implementation. The importance of identifying students' needs regarding global nursing competence when developing appropriate curricula is discussed.

  9. An Effective Model for Improving Global Health Nursing Competence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunjoo Kang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper developed an effective model for improving global health nursing competence among undergraduate students. A descriptive case study was conducted by implementing four programs. All programs were conducted with students majoring nursing and healthcare, where the researcher was a program director, professor, or facilitator. These programs were analyzed in terms of students’ needs assessment, program design, and implementation and evaluation factors. The concept and composition of global nursing competence, identified within previous studies, were deemed appropriate in all of our programs. Program composition varied from curricular to extracurricular domains. During the implementation phase, most of the programs included non-Korean students to improve cultural diversity and overcome language barriers. Qualitative and quantitative surveys were conducted to assess program efficacy. Data triangulation from students’ reflective journals was examined. Additionally, students’ awareness regarding changes within global health nursing, improved critical thinking, cultural understanding, and global leadership skills were investigated pre and post-program implementation. We discuss how identifying students’ needs regarding global nursing competence when developing appropriate curricula.

  10. European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haylock, M. R.

    2011-10-01

    Uncertainty in the return levels of insured loss from European wind storms was quantified using storms derived from twenty-two 25 km regional climate model runs driven by either the ERA40 reanalyses or one of four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Storms were identified using a model-dependent storm severity index based on daily maximum 10 m wind speed. The wind speed from each model was calibrated to a set of 7 km historical storm wind fields using the 70 storms with the highest severity index in the period 1961-2000, employing a two stage calibration methodology. First, the 25 km daily maximum wind speed was downscaled to the 7 km historical model grid using the 7 km surface roughness length and orography, also adopting an empirical gust parameterisation. Secondly, downscaled wind gusts were statistically scaled to the historical storms to match the geographically-dependent cumulative distribution function of wind gust speed. The calibrated wind fields were run through an operational catastrophe reinsurance risk model to determine the return level of loss to a European population density-derived property portfolio. The risk model produced a 50-yr return level of loss of between 0.025% and 0.056% of the total insured value of the portfolio.

  11. European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Haylock

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty in the return levels of insured loss from European wind storms was quantified using storms derived from twenty-two 25 km regional climate model runs driven by either the ERA40 reanalyses or one of four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Storms were identified using a model-dependent storm severity index based on daily maximum 10 m wind speed. The wind speed from each model was calibrated to a set of 7 km historical storm wind fields using the 70 storms with the highest severity index in the period 1961–2000, employing a two stage calibration methodology. First, the 25 km daily maximum wind speed was downscaled to the 7 km historical model grid using the 7 km surface roughness length and orography, also adopting an empirical gust parameterisation. Secondly, downscaled wind gusts were statistically scaled to the historical storms to match the geographically-dependent cumulative distribution function of wind gust speed.

    The calibrated wind fields were run through an operational catastrophe reinsurance risk model to determine the return level of loss to a European population density-derived property portfolio. The risk model produced a 50-yr return level of loss of between 0.025% and 0.056% of the total insured value of the portfolio.

  12. Incorporating nitrogen fixing cyanobacteria in the global biogeochemical model HAMOCC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, Hanna; Ilyina, Tatiana; Six, Katharina

    2015-04-01

    Nitrogen fixation by marine diazotrophs plays a fundamental role in the oceanic nitrogen and carbon cycle as it provides a major source of 'new' nitrogen to the euphotic zone that supports biological carbon export and sequestration. Since most global biogeochemical models include nitrogen fixation only diagnostically, they are not able to capture its spatial pattern sufficiently. Here we present the incorporation of an explicit, dynamic representation of diazotrophic cyanobacteria and the corresponding nitrogen fixation in the global ocean biogeochemical model HAMOCC (Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model), which is part of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth system model (MPI-ESM). The parameterization of the diazotrophic growth is thereby based on available knowledge about the cyanobacterium Trichodesmium spp., which is considered as the most significant pelagic nitrogen fixer. Evaluation against observations shows that the model successfully reproduces the main spatial distribution of cyanobacteria and nitrogen fixation, covering large parts of the tropical and subtropical oceans. Besides the role of cyanobacteria in marine biogeochemical cycles, their capacity to form extensive surface blooms induces a number of bio-physical feedback mechanisms in the Earth system. The processes driving these interactions, which are related to the alteration of heat absorption, surface albedo and momentum input by wind, are incorporated in the biogeochemical and physical model of the MPI-ESM in order to investigate their impacts on a global scale. First preliminary results will be shown.

  13. Existence of global attractor for the Trojan Y Chromosome model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaopeng Zhao

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the long time behavior of solution for the equation derived by the Trojan Y Chromosome (TYC model with spatial spread. Based on the regularity estimates for the semigroups and the classical existence theorem of global attractors, we prove that this equations possesses a global attractor in $H^k(\\Omega^4$ $(k\\geq 0$ space.

  14. An ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach for discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo; Yang, Hong; Sweetapple, Chris

    2018-03-01

    Global precipitation products are very important datasets in flow simulations, especially in poorly gauged regions. Uncertainties resulting from precipitation products, hydrological models and their combinations vary with time and data magnitude, and undermine their application to flow simulations. However, previous studies have not quantified these uncertainties individually and explicitly. This study developed an ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach (e-Bay) for deterministic discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models. In this approach, the joint probability of precipitation products and hydrological models being correct is quantified based on uncertainties in maximum and mean estimation, posterior probability is quantified as functions of the magnitude and timing of discharges, and the law of total probability is implemented to calculate expected discharges. Six global fine-resolution precipitation products and two hydrological models of different complexities are included in an illustrative application. e-Bay can effectively quantify uncertainties and therefore generate better deterministic discharges than traditional approaches (weighted average methods with equal and varying weights and maximum likelihood approach). The mean Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values of e-Bay are up to 0.97 and 0.85 in training and validation periods respectively, which are at least 0.06 and 0.13 higher than traditional approaches. In addition, with increased training data, assessment criteria values of e-Bay show smaller fluctuations than traditional approaches and its performance becomes outstanding. The proposed e-Bay approach bridges the gap between global precipitation products and their pragmatic applications to discharge simulations, and is beneficial to water resources management in ungauged or poorly gauged regions across the world.

  15. Global assessment of ocean carbon export by combining satellite observations and food-web models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegel, D. A.; Buesseler, K. O.; Doney, S. C.; Sailley, S. F.; Behrenfeld, M. J.; Boyd, P. W.

    2014-03-01

    The export of organic carbon from the surface ocean by sinking particles is an important, yet highly uncertain, component of the global carbon cycle. Here we introduce a mechanistic assessment of the global ocean carbon export using satellite observations, including determinations of net primary production and the slope of the particle size spectrum, to drive a food-web model that estimates the production of sinking zooplankton feces and algal aggregates comprising the sinking particle flux at the base of the euphotic zone. The synthesis of observations and models reveals fundamentally different and ecologically consistent regional-scale patterns in export and export efficiency not found in previous global carbon export assessments. The model reproduces regional-scale particle export field observations and predicts a climatological mean global carbon export from the euphotic zone of 6 Pg C yr-1. Global export estimates show small variation (typically model parameter values. The model is also robust to the choices of the satellite data products used and enables interannual changes to be quantified. The present synthesis of observations and models provides a path for quantifying the ocean's biological pump.

  16. Multi-site evaluation of the JULES land surface model using global and local data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Slevin

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the ability of the JULES land surface model (LSM to simulate photosynthesis using local and global data sets at 12 FLUXNET sites. Model parameters include site-specific (local values for each flux tower site and the default parameters used in the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM climate model. Firstly, gross primary productivity (GPP estimates from driving JULES with data derived from local site measurements were compared to observations from the FLUXNET network. When using local data, the model is biased with total annual GPP underestimated by 16% across all sites compared to observations. Secondly, GPP estimates from driving JULES with data derived from global parameter and atmospheric reanalysis (on scales of 100 km or so were compared to FLUXNET observations. It was found that model performance decreases further, with total annual GPP underestimated by 30% across all sites compared to observations. When JULES was driven using local parameters and global meteorological data, it was shown that global data could be used in place of FLUXNET data with a 7% reduction in total annual simulated GPP. Thirdly, the global meteorological data sets, WFDEI and PRINCETON, were compared to local data to find that the WFDEI data set more closely matches the local meteorological measurements (FLUXNET. Finally, the JULES phenology model was tested by comparing results from simulations using the default phenology model to those forced with the remote sensing product MODIS leaf area index (LAI. Forcing the model with daily satellite LAI results in only small improvements in predicted GPP at a small number of sites, compared to using the default phenology model.

  17. A dynamic global-coefficient mixed subgrid-scale model for large-eddy simulation of turbulent flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Satbir; You, Donghyun

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► A new SGS model is developed for LES of turbulent flows in complex geometries. ► A dynamic global-coefficient SGS model is coupled with a scale-similarity model. ► Overcome some of difficulties associated with eddy-viscosity closures. ► Does not require averaging or clipping of the model coefficient for stabilization. ► The predictive capability is demonstrated in a number of turbulent flow simulations. -- Abstract: A dynamic global-coefficient mixed subgrid-scale eddy-viscosity model for large-eddy simulation of turbulent flows in complex geometries is developed. In the present model, the subgrid-scale stress is decomposed into the modified Leonard stress, cross stress, and subgrid-scale Reynolds stress. The modified Leonard stress is explicitly computed assuming a scale similarity, while the cross stress and the subgrid-scale Reynolds stress are modeled using the global-coefficient eddy-viscosity model. The model coefficient is determined by a dynamic procedure based on the global-equilibrium between the subgrid-scale dissipation and the viscous dissipation. The new model relieves some of the difficulties associated with an eddy-viscosity closure, such as the nonalignment of the principal axes of the subgrid-scale stress tensor and the strain rate tensor and the anisotropy of turbulent flow fields, while, like other dynamic global-coefficient models, it does not require averaging or clipping of the model coefficient for numerical stabilization. The combination of the global-coefficient eddy-viscosity model and a scale-similarity model is demonstrated to produce improved predictions in a number of turbulent flow simulations

  18. THREE MODELS OF NATIONAL CRIMINAL POLICY IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBALIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Kleymenov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The author identifies three models of national criminal policy: the sovereign, reformist and experimental. The main criteria of such differentiation are the exposure to global influence, the criminological soundness and stability of criminal policy. Identification of the model of criminal policy in a particular state is a complex task that requires independent research.The subject. The article is devoted to modeling of the national criminal policy in modern conditions of globalization. The article discusses various models of criminal policy in the conditions of globalization.The purpose of the author is to describe the basic models of national criminal policy in modern conditions of globalization.The methodology. The author uses the method of analysis and synthesis, formal legal method as well as sociological methods (survey.The results, scope of application. The author identifies three models of national criminal policy: the sovereign, reformist and experimental. The main criteria of such differentiation are the exposure to global influence, the criminological soundness and stability of criminal policy. The sovereign model is based on doctrine of weak state and a strong combat criminal activity. It is distinguished by the pursuit of the realization of the equality of all before the law, criminal strategic and political planning system with a clear definition of goals and objectives; criminological security. The reform of criminal policy is characterized byuncertainty goals and objectives, utopianism and pretentiousness, dependence on standards of the international organization, the lower prestige of criminology, reduction of social programs, lobbying of group interests, permanent amendments to the criminal and criminal procedure legislation. Experimental model of criminal policy is connected with approbation of such technologies of management of society that are criminal and contrary to human experience in fighting crime.Conclusions. Criminal

  19. Assessing the vertical structure of baroclinic tidal currents in a global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timko, Patrick; Arbic, Brian; Scott, Robert

    2010-05-01

    Tidal forcing plays an important role in many aspects of oceanography. Mixing, transport of particulates and internal wave generation are just three examples of local phenomena that may depend on the strength of local tidal currents. Advances in satellite altimetry have made an assessment of the global barotropic tide possible. However, the vertical structure of the tide may only be observed by deployment of instruments throughout the water column. Typically these observations are conducted at pre-determined depths based upon the interest of the observer. The high cost of such observations often limits both the number and the length of the observations resulting in a limit to our knowledge of the vertical structure of tidal currents. One way to expand our insight into the baroclinic structure of the ocean is through the use of numerical models. We compare the vertical structure of the global baroclinic tidal velocities in 1/12 degree HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) to a global database of current meter records. The model output is a subset of a 5 year global simulation that resolves the eddying general circulation, barotropic tides and baroclinic tides using 32 vertical layers. The density structure within the simulation is both vertically and horizontally non-uniform. In addition to buoyancy forcing the model is forced by astronomical tides and winds. We estimate the dominant semi-diurnal (M2), and diurnal (K1) tidal constituents of the model data using classical harmonic analysis. In regions where current meter record coverage is adequate, the model skill in replicating the vertical structure of the dominant diurnal and semi-diurnal tidal currents is assessed based upon the strength, orientation and phase of the tidal ellipses. We also present a global estimate of the baroclinic tidal energy at fixed depths estimated from the model output.

  20. Global modelling of magnetic island control in tokamaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fevrier, Olivier

    2016-01-01

    Magneto-Hydro-Dynamic (MHD) instabilities are susceptible to develop within a tokamak plasma. These instabilities manifest themselves as magnetic islands which reduce the plasma confinement. The islands can however be controlled by driving current inside them. In this thesis, we consider the modeling of the magnetic islands and their control using first principle approaches, which rely on a global MHD description of the plasma. We have detailed the inclusion a RF-driven current like source term in an MHD code, which requires special care to be given to the modeling of the current density evolution. The implementation has been benchmarked against the asymptotic models, allowing us to retrieve the influence of parameters such as deposition width or misalignment with respect to the island width and position. Beyond these aspects, we have evidenced new effects, linked to the 3D nature of the current deposition. We have observed a flip instability in which an island, reduced by the ECCD, brutally inverse its phase so that its X-Point faces the current deposition, allowing the mode the grow further. We then moved on to the topic of the best suitable control strategies for the control of the island. We have implemented in XTOR a control system that mimics the experimental ones and adapt the current deposition in function of a preset strategy. Nonlinear MHD simulations have been carried out using different control schemes, allowing us to quantify the gain to expect from each of these methods depending on the characteristics of the current deposition. (author) [fr

  1. A Global Ocean Tide Model From TOPEX/POSEIDON Altimetry: GOT99.2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Richard D.

    1999-01-01

    Goddard Ocean Tide model GOT99.2 is a new solution for the amplitudes and phases of the global oceanic tides, based on over six years of sea-surface height measurements by the TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite altimeter. Comparison with deep-ocean tide-gauge measurements show that this new tidal solution is an improvement over previous global models, with accuracies for the main semidiurnal lunar constituent M2 now below 1.5 cm (deep water only). The new solution benefits from use of prior hydrodynamic models, several in shallow and inland seas as well as the global finite-element model FES94.1. This report describes some of the data processing details involved in handling the altimetry, and it provides a comprehensive set of global cotidal charts of the resulting solutions. Various derived tidal charts are also provided, including tidal loading deformation charts, tidal gravimetric charts, and tidal current velocity (or transport) charts. Finally, low-degree spherical harmonic coefficients are computed by numerical quadrature and are tabulated for the major short-period tides; these are useful for a variety of geodetic and geophysical purposes, especially in combination with similar estimates from satellite laser ranging.

  2. Introducing technology learning for energy technologies in a national CGE model through soft links to global and national energy models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinsen, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a method to model the influence by global policy scenarios, particularly spillover of technology learning, on the energy service demand of the non-energy sectors of the national economy. It is exemplified by Norway. Spillover is obtained from the technology-rich global Energy Technology Perspective model operated by the International Energy Agency. It is provided to a national hybrid model where a national bottom-up Markal model carries forward spillover into a national top-down CGE model at a disaggregated demand category level. Spillover of technology learning from the global energy technology market will reduce national generation costs of energy carriers. This may in turn increase demand in the non-energy sectors of the economy because of the rebound effect. The influence of spillover on the Norwegian economy is most pronounced for the production level of industrial chemicals and for the demand for electricity for residential energy services. The influence is modest, however, because all existing electricity generating capacity is hydroelectric and thus compatible with the low emission policy scenario. In countries where most of the existing generating capacity must be replaced by nascent energy technologies or carbon captured and storage the influence on demand is expected to be more significant. - Highlights: → Spillover of global technology learning may be forwarded into a macroeconomic model. → The national electricity price differs significantly between the different global scenarios. → Soft-linking global and national models facilitate transparency in the technology learning effect chain.

  3. Global dynamics of a novel multi-group model for computer worms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gong Yong-Wang; Song Yu-Rong; Jiang Guo-Ping

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we study worm dynamics in computer networks composed of many autonomous systems. A novel multi-group SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantined-removed) model is proposed for computer worms by explicitly considering anti-virus measures and the network infrastructure. Then, the basic reproduction number of worm R 0 is derived and the global dynamics of the model are established. It is shown that if R 0 is less than or equal to 1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the worm dies out eventually, whereas, if R 0 is greater than 1, one unique endemic equilibrium exists and it is globally asymptotically stable, thus the worm persists in the network. Finally, numerical simulations are given to illustrate the theoretical results. (general)

  4. Global properties of symmetric competition models with riddling and blowout phenomena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giant-italo Bischi

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the problem of chaos synchronization, and the related phenomena of riddling, blowout and on–off intermittency, are considered for discrete time competition models with identical competitors. The global properties which determine the different effects of riddling and blowout bifurcations are studied by the method of critical curves, a tool for the study of the global dynamical properties of two-dimensional noninvertible maps. These techniques are applied to the study of a dynamic market-share competition model.

  5. Inclusion of ecologically based trait variation in plant functional types reduces the projected land carbon sink in an earth system model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verheijen, Lieneke M; Aerts, Rien; Brovkin, Victor; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Kattge, Jens; van Bodegom, Peter M

    2015-08-01

    Earth system models demonstrate large uncertainty in projected changes in terrestrial carbon budgets. The lack of inclusion of adaptive responses of vegetation communities to the environment has been suggested to hamper the ability of modeled vegetation to adequately respond to environmental change. In this study, variation in functional responses of vegetation has been added to an earth system model (ESM) based on ecological principles. The restriction of viable mean trait values of vegetation communities by the environment, called 'habitat filtering', is an important ecological assembly rule and allows for determination of global scale trait-environment relationships. These relationships were applied to model trait variation for different plant functional types (PFTs). For three leaf traits (specific leaf area, maximum carboxylation rate at 25 °C, and maximum electron transport rate at 25 °C), relationships with multiple environmental drivers, such as precipitation, temperature, radiation, and CO2 , were determined for the PFTs within the Max Planck Institute ESM. With these relationships, spatiotemporal variation in these formerly fixed traits in PFTs was modeled in global change projections (IPCC RCP8.5 scenario). Inclusion of this environment-driven trait variation resulted in a strong reduction of the global carbon sink by at least 33% (2.1 Pg C yr(-1) ) from the 2nd quarter of the 21st century onward compared to the default model with fixed traits. In addition, the mid- and high latitudes became a stronger carbon sink and the tropics a stronger carbon source, caused by trait-induced differences in productivity and relative respirational costs. These results point toward a reduction of the global carbon sink when including a more realistic representation of functional vegetation responses, implying more carbon will stay airborne, which could fuel further climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. The Origins and Consequences of democratic citizens' Policy Agendas. A Study of Popular Concern about Global Warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krosnick, J.A.; Holbrook, A.L.; Lowe, L.; Visser, P.S.

    2006-01-01

    This article proposes and tests a model of the causes and consequences of Americans' judgments of the national seriousness of global warming. The model proposes that seriousness judgments about global warming are a function of beliefs about the existence of global warming, attitudes toward it, the certainty with which these beliefs and attitudes are held, and beliefs about human responsibility for causing global warming and people's ability to remedy it. The model also proposes that beliefs about whether global warming is a problem are a function of relevant personal experiences (with the weather) and messages from informants (in this case, scientists), that attitudes toward global warming are a function of particular perceived consequences of global warming, and that certainty about these attitudes and beliefs is a function of knowledge and prior thought. Data from two representative sample surveys offer support for all of these propositions, document effects of national seriousness judgments on support for ameliorative efforts generally and specific ameliorative policies, and thereby point to psychological mechanisms that may be responsible for institutional and elite impact on the public's assessments of national problem importance and on public policy preferences

  7. Global Land Carbon Uptake from Trait Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, E. E.; Datta, A.; Flores-Moreno, H.; Fazayeli, F.; Chen, M.; Wythers, K. R.; Banerjee, A.; Atkin, O. K.; Kattge, J.; Reich, P. B.

    2016-12-01

    Historically, functional diversity in land surface models has been represented through a range of plant functional types (PFTs), each of which has a single value for all of its functional traits. Here we expand the diversity of the land surface by using a distribution of trait values for each PFT. The data for these trait distributions is from a sub-set of the global database of plant traits, TRY, and this analysis uses three leaf traits: mass based nitrogen and phosphorus content and specific leaf area, which influence both photosynthesis and respiration. The data are extrapolated into continuous surfaces through two methodologies. The first, a categorical method, classifies the species observed in TRY into satellite estimates of their plant functional type abundances - analogous to how traits are currently assigned to PFTs in land surface models. Second, a Bayesian spatial method which additionally estimates how the distribution of a trait changes in accord with both climate and soil covariates. These two methods produce distinct patterns of diversity which are incorporated into a land surface model to estimate how the range of trait values affects the global land carbon budget.

  8. Global Harmonic Current Rejection of Nonlinear Backstepping Control with Multivariable Adaptive Internal Model Principle for Grid-Connected Inverter under Distorted Grid Voltage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Yu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on a brief review on current harmonics generation mechanism for grid-connected inverter under distorted grid voltage, the harmonic disturbances and uncertain items are immersed into the original state-space differential equation of grid-connected inverter. A new algorithm of global current harmonic rejection based on nonlinear backstepping control with multivariable internal model principle is proposed for grid-connected inverter with exogenous disturbances and uncertainties. A type of multivariable internal model for a class of nonlinear harmonic disturbances is constructed. Based on application of backstepping control law of the nominal system, a multivariable adaptive state feedback controller combined with multivariable internal model and adaptive control law is designed to guarantee the closed-loop system globally uniformly bounded, which is proved by a constructed Lyapunov function. The presented algorithm extends rejection of nonlinear single-input systems to multivariable globally defined normal form, the correctness and effectiveness of which are verified by the simulation results.

  9. Global existence and asymptotic behavior of a model for biological control of invasive species via supermale introduction

    KAUST Repository

    Parshad, Rana; Kouachi, Saï d; Gutié rrez, Juan B.

    2013-01-01

    theapplication of the well known regularizing effect principle. Thus functional methods to deducethe global existence in time, for the system in question, are not applicable. Our techniques are based on the Lyapunov functional method. We prove global existence

  10. Team Investment and Longitudinal Relationships: An Innovative Global Health Education Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Kimberly R; Fredrick, N Benjamin

    2017-12-01

    Increasing student interest in global health has resulted in medical schools offering more global health opportunities. However, concerns have been raised, particularly about one-time, short-term experiences, including lack of follow-through for students and perpetuation of unintentional messages of global health heroism, neocolonialism, and disregard for existing systems and communities of care. Medical schools must develop global health programs that address these issues. The Global Health Scholars Program (GHSP) was created in 2008-2009 at Penn State College of Medicine. This four-year program is based on values of team investment and longitudinal relationships and uses the service-learning framework of preparation, service, and reflection. Teams of approximately five students, with faculty oversight, participate in two separate monthlong trips abroad to the same host community in years 1 and 4, and in campus- and Web-based activities in years 2 and 3. As of December 2016, 191 students have been accepted into the GHSP. Since inception, applications have grown by 475% and program sites have expanded from one to seven sites on four continents. The response from students has been positive, but logistical challenges persist in sustaining team investment and maintaining longitudinal relationships between student teams and host communities. Formal methods of assessment should be used to compare the GHSP model with more traditional approaches to global health education. Other medical schools with similar aims can adapt the GHSP model to expand their global health programming.

  11. Modelling Global Pattern Formations for Collaborative Learning Environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grappiolo, Corrado; Cheong, Yun-Gyung; Khaled, Rilla

    2012-01-01

    We present our research towards the design of a computational framework capable of modelling the formation and evolution of global patterns (i.e. group structures) in a population of social individuals. The framework is intended to be used in collaborative environments, e.g. social serious games...

  12. Matérn-based nonstationary cross-covariance models for global processes

    KAUST Repository

    Jun, Mikyoung

    2014-01-01

    -covariance models, based on the Matérn covariance model class, that are suitable for describing prominent nonstationary characteristics of the global processes. In particular, we seek nonstationary versions of Matérn covariance models whose smoothness parameters

  13. Modelling MIZ dynamics in a global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rynders, Stefanie; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Feltham, Daniel; Nurser, George; Naveira Garabato, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    Exposure of large, previously ice-covered areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface ocean waves results in the Arctic pack ice cover becoming more fragmented and mobile, with large regions of ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). The need for better climate predictions, along with growing economic activity in the Polar Oceans, necessitates climate and forecasting models that can simulate fragmented sea ice with a greater fidelity. Current models are not fully fit for the purpose, since they neither model surface ocean waves in the MIZ, nor account for the effect of floe fragmentation on drag, nor include sea ice rheology that represents both the now thinner pack ice and MIZ ice dynamics. All these processes affect the momentum transfer to the ocean. We present initial results from a global ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) coupled to the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE. The model setup implements a novel rheological formulation for sea ice dynamics, accounting for ice floe collisions, thus offering a seamless framework for pack ice and MIZ simulations. The effect of surface waves on ice motion is included through wave pressure and the turbulent kinetic energy of ice floes. In the multidecadal model integrations we examine MIZ and basin scale sea ice and oceanic responses to the changes in ice dynamics. We analyse model sensitivities and attribute them to key sea ice and ocean dynamical mechanisms. The results suggest that the effect of the new ice rheology is confined to the MIZ. However with the current increase in summer MIZ area, which is projected to continue and may become the dominant type of sea ice in the Arctic, we argue that the effects of the combined sea ice rheology will be noticeable in large areas of the Arctic Ocean, affecting sea ice and ocean. With this study we assert that to make more accurate sea ice predictions in the changing Arctic, models need to include MIZ dynamics and physics.

  14. The AgMIP GRIDded Crop Modeling Initiative (AgGRID) and the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Joshua; Muller, Christoff

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is a significant risk for agricultural production. Even under optimistic scenarios for climate mitigation action, present-day agricultural areas are likely to face significant increases in temperatures in the coming decades, in addition to changes in precipitation, cloud cover, and the frequency and duration of extreme heat, drought, and flood events (IPCC, 2013). These factors will affect the agricultural system at the global scale by impacting cultivation regimes, prices, trade, and food security (Nelson et al., 2014a). Global-scale evaluation of crop productivity is a major challenge for climate impact and adaptation assessment. Rigorous global assessments that are able to inform planning and policy will benefit from consistent use of models, input data, and assumptions across regions and time that use mutually agreed protocols designed by the modeling community. To ensure this consistency, large-scale assessments are typically performed on uniform spatial grids, with spatial resolution of typically 10 to 50 km, over specified time-periods. Many distinct crop models and model types have been applied on the global scale to assess productivity and climate impacts, often with very different results (Rosenzweig et al., 2014). These models are based to a large extent on field-scale crop process or ecosystems models and they typically require resolved data on weather, environmental, and farm management conditions that are lacking in many regions (Bondeau et al., 2007; Drewniak et al., 2013; Elliott et al., 2014b; Gueneau et al., 2012; Jones et al., 2003; Liu et al., 2007; M¨uller and Robertson, 2014; Van den Hoof et al., 2011;Waha et al., 2012; Xiong et al., 2014). Due to data limitations, the requirements of consistency, and the computational and practical limitations of running models on a large scale, a variety of simplifying assumptions must generally be made regarding prevailing management strategies on the grid scale in both the baseline and

  15. Global modelling of river water quality under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Franssen, Wietse H. P.; Yearsley, John R.

    2017-04-01

    Climate change will pose challenges on the quality of freshwater resources for human use and ecosystems for instance by changing the dilution capacity and by affecting the rate of chemical processes in rivers. Here we assess the impacts of climate change and induced streamflow changes on a selection of water quality parameters for river basins globally. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a newly developed global water quality module for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand. The modelling framework was validated using observed records of streamflow, water temperature, chloride, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand for 1981-2010. VIC and the water quality module were then forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 to study water quality trends and identify critical regions (hotspots) of water quality deterioration for the 21st century.

  16. Quantifying the causes of differences in tropospheric OH within global models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicely, Julie M.; Salawitch, Ross J.; Canty, Timothy; Anderson, Daniel C.; Arnold, Steve R.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Emmons, Louisa K.; Flemming, Johannes; Huijnen, Vincent; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Lamarque, Jean-François; Mao, Jingqiu; Monks, Sarah A.; Steenrod, Stephen D.; Tilmes, Simone; Turquety, Solene

    2017-02-01

    The hydroxyl radical (OH) is the primary daytime oxidant in the troposphere and provides the main loss mechanism for many pollutants and greenhouse gases, including methane (CH4). Global mean tropospheric OH differs by as much as 80% among various global models, for reasons that are not well understood. We use neural networks (NNs), trained using archived output from eight chemical transport models (CTMs) that participated in the Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements and Models, of Climate, Chemistry, Aerosols and Transport Model Intercomparison Project (POLMIP), to quantify the factors responsible for differences in tropospheric OH and resulting CH4 lifetime (τCH4) between these models. Annual average τCH4, for loss by OH only, ranges from 8.0 to 11.6 years for the eight POLMIP CTMs. The factors driving these differences were quantified by inputting 3-D chemical fields from one CTM into the trained NN of another CTM. Across all CTMs, the largest mean differences in τCH4 (ΔτCH4) result from variations in chemical mechanisms (ΔτCH4 = 0.46 years), the photolysis frequency (J) of O3 → O(1D) (0.31 years), local O3 (0.30 years), and CO (0.23 years). The ΔτCH4 due to CTM differences in NOx (NO + NO2) is relatively low (0.17 years), although large regional variation in OH between the CTMs is attributed to NOx. Differences in isoprene and J(NO2) have negligible overall effect on globally averaged tropospheric OH, although the extent of OH variations due to each factor depends on the model being examined. This study demonstrates that NNs can serve as a useful tool for quantifying why tropospheric OH varies between global models, provided that essential chemical fields are archived.

  17. About a global model of the equivalent slab thickness of the ionosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maltseva, Olga; Mozhaeva, Natalya

    2016-07-01

    Use of a median of an equivalent slab thickness of the ionosphere τ(med) is the simplest case of assimilation of the total electron content TEC. To use τ(med) on a global scale it is necessary to have its model. Some variants are possible: (1) construction of superficial function of kriging type using values of τ(med) in several points, (2) the NGM model which can be constructed on the basis of two empirical Neustrelitz models for TEC and NmF2, (3) the IRI-Plas model. Construction of a model with use of τ(med) values is difficult because of the large variability of values (in particular, a strong pre-sunrise peak at some latitudes). Testing of models NGM and IRI-Plas shows that they not always provide satisfactory results in that or another region of globe. Besides, they are not pure empirical models. In the present work, an attempt is done to use two-parameter model on a basis of hyperbolic dependence of τ(med) from NmF2 (τ(hyp) =b0+b1/NmF2) and approximation of coefficient K(τ) = τ(med)/τ(IRI) in a latitudinal course. On an example of March 2015 when there was a great number of ionosonde data, coefficients b0 and b1 were modeled. Results are presented for two regions Lat1 and Lat2. Area Lat1 contains 13 stations, basically, on the American continent of northern and southern hemispheres. Area Lat2 contains 20 stations of the European, Siberian and Southeast regions. Certain advantage of use of coefficients K(τ) can be that in its numerator there is a magnitude of τ(IRI), having a global character, and a small variation of K(τ) in zones with close longitudes. Difference is a model construction at each hour. Degree of coincidence is better to illustrate on circular diagrams. Models were tested by elimination of one of stations and definition of deviations of calculated foF2 from experimental values. Authors thank Southern Federal University for support by grant #213.01-11/2014-22.

  18. LPJmL4 - a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land - Part 1: Model description

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaphoff, Sibyll; von Bloh, Werner; Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Biemans, Hester; Forkel, Matthias; Gerten, Dieter; Heinke, Jens; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Knauer, Jürgen; Langerwisch, Fanny; Lucht, Wolfgang; Müller, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne; Waha, Katharina

    2018-04-01

    This paper provides a comprehensive description of the newest version of the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model with managed Land, LPJmL4. This model simulates - internally consistently - the growth and productivity of both natural and agricultural vegetation as coherently linked through their water, carbon, and energy fluxes. These features render LPJmL4 suitable for assessing a broad range of feedbacks within and impacts upon the terrestrial biosphere as increasingly shaped by human activities such as climate change and land use change. Here we describe the core model structure, including recently developed modules now unified in LPJmL4. Thereby, we also review LPJmL model developments and evaluations in the field of permafrost, human and ecological water demand, and improved representation of crop types. We summarize and discuss LPJmL model applications dealing with the impacts of historical and future environmental change on the terrestrial biosphere at regional and global scale and provide a comprehensive overview of LPJmL publications since the first model description in 2007. To demonstrate the main features of the LPJmL4 model, we display reference simulation results for key processes such as the current global distribution of natural and managed ecosystems, their productivities, and associated water fluxes. A thorough evaluation of the model is provided in a companion paper. By making the model source code freely available at https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL" target="_blank">https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL, we hope to stimulate the application and further development of LPJmL4 across scientific communities in support of major activities such as the IPCC and SDG process.

  19. A branch and bound algorithm for the global optimization of Hessian Lipschitz continuous functions

    KAUST Repository

    Fowkes, Jaroslav M.; Gould, Nicholas I. M.; Farmer, Chris L.

    2012-01-01

    We present a branch and bound algorithm for the global optimization of a twice differentiable nonconvex objective function with a Lipschitz continuous Hessian over a compact, convex set. The algorithm is based on applying cubic regularisation

  20. Does a General Temperature-Dependent Q10 Model of Soil Respiration Exist at Biome and Global Scale?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hua CHEN; Han-Qin TIAN

    2005-01-01

    Soil respiration (SR) is commonly modeled by a Q10 (an indicator of temperature sensitivity)function in ecosystem models. Q10is usually treated as a constant of 2 in these models, although Q10 value of SR often decreases with increasing temperatures. It remains unclear whether a general temperaturedependent Q10 model of SR exists at biome and global scale. In this paper, we have compiled the long-term Q10 data of 38 SR studies ranging from the Boreal, Temperate, to Tropical/Subtropical biome on four continents.Our analysis indicated that the general temperature-dependent biome Q10 models of SR existed, especially in the Boreal and Temperate biomes. A single-exponential model was better than a simple linear model in fitting the average Q10 values at the biome scale. Average soil temperature is a better predictor of Q10 value than average air temperature in these models, especially in the Boreal biome. Soil temperature alone could explain about 50% of the Q10 variations in both the Boreal and Temperate biome single-exponential Q10 model. Q10 value of SR decreased with increasing soil temperature but at quite different rates among the three biome Q10 models. The k values (Q10 decay rate constants) were 0.09, 0.07, and 0.02/℃ in the Boreal, Temperate, and Tropical/Subtropical biome, respectively, suggesting that Q10 value is the most sensitive to soil temperature change in the Boreal biome, the second in the Temperate biome, and the least sensitive in the Tropical/Subtropical biome. This also indirectly confirms that acclimation of SR in many soil warming experiments probably occurs. The k value in the "global" single-exponential Q10 model which combined both the Boreal and Temperate biome data set was 0.08/℃. However, the global general temperature-dependent Q10model developed using the data sets of the three biomes is not adequate for predicting Q10 values of SR globally.The existence of the general temperature-dependent Q10 models of SR in the Boreal and

  1. Neuroanatomical Substrates of Executive Functions: Beyond Prefrontal Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bettcher, Brianne M.; Mungas, Dan; Patel, Nihar; Elofson, Jonathan; Dutt, Shubir; Wynn, Matthew; Watson, Christa L.; Stephens, Melanie; Walsh, Christine M.; Kramer, Joel H.

    2016-01-01

    Executive functions are often considered lynchpin “frontal lobe tasks”, despite accumulating evidence that a broad network of anterior and posterior brain structures supports them. Using a latent variable modeling approach, we assessed whether prefrontal grey matter volumes independently predict executive function performance when statistically differentiated from global atrophy and individual non-frontal lobar volume contributions. We further examined whether fronto-parietal white matter microstructure underlies and independently contributes to executive functions. We developed a latent variable model to decompose lobar grey matter volumes into a global grey matter factor and specific lobar volumes (i.e. prefrontal, parietal, temporal, occipital) that were independent of global grey matter. We then added mean fractional anisotropy (FA) for the superior longitudinal fasciculus (dorsal portion), corpus callosum, and cingulum bundle (dorsal portion) to models that included grey matter volumes related to cognitive variables in previous analyses. Results suggested that the 2-factor model (shifting/inhibition, updating/working memory) plus an information processing speed factor best explained our executive function data in a sample of 202 community dwelling older adults, and was selected as the base measurement model for further analyses. Global grey matter was related to the executive function and speed variables in all four lobar models, but independent contributions of the frontal lobes were not significant. In contrast, when assessing the effect of white matter microstructure, cingulum FA made significant independent contributions to all three executive function and speed variables and corpus callosum FA was independently related to shifting/inhibition and speed. Findings from the current study indicate that while prefrontal grey matter volumes are significantly associated with cognitive neuroscience measures of shifting/inhibition and working memory in healthy

  2. Mapping local and global variability in plant trait distributions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Butler, Ethan E.; Datta, Abhirup; Flores-Moreno, Habacuc; Chen, Ming; Wythers, Kirk R.; Fazayeli, Farideh; Banerjee, Arindam; Atkin, Owen K.; Kattge, Jens; Amiaud, Bernard; Blonder, Benjamin; Boenisch, Gerhard; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Brown, Kerry A.; Byun, Chaeho; Campetella, Giandiego; Cerabolini, Bruno E. L.; Cornelissen, Johannes H. C.; Craine, Joseph M.; Craven, Dylan; de Vries, Franciska T.; Díaz, Sandra; Domingues, Tomas F.; Forey, Estelle; González-Melo, Andrés; Gross, Nicolas; Han, Wenxuan; Hattingh, Wesley N.; Hickler, Thomas; Jansen, Steven; Kramer, Koen; Kraft, Nathan J. B.; Kurokawa, Hiroko; Laughlin, Daniel C.; Meir, Patrick; Minden, Vanessa; Niinemets, Ülo; Onoda, Yusuke; Peñuelas, Josep; Read, Quentin; Sack, Lawren; Schamp, Brandon; Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A.; Spasojevic, Marko J.; Sosinski, Enio; Thornton, Peter E.; Valladares, Fernando; van Bodegom, Peter M.; Williams, Mathew; Wirth, Christian; Reich, Peter B.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate trait-environment relationships and global maps of plant trait distributions represent a needed stepping stone in global biogeography and are critical constraints of key parameters for land models. Here, we use a global data set of plant traits to map trait distributions closely coupled to photosynthesis and foliar respiration: specific leaf area (SLA), and dry mass-based concentrations of leaf nitrogen (Nm) and phosphorus (Pm); We propose two models to extrapolate geographically sparse point data to continuous spatial surfaces. The first is a categorical model using species mean trait values, categorized into plant functional types (PFTs) and extrapolating to PFT occurrence ranges identified by remote sensing. The second is a Bayesian spatial model that incorporates information about PFT, location and environmental covariates to estimate trait distributions. Both models are further stratified by varying the number of PFTs; The performance of the models was evaluated based on their explanatory and predictive ability. The Bayesian spatial model leveraging the largest number of PFTs produced the best maps; The interpolation of full trait distributions enables a wider diversity of vegetation to be represented across the land surface. These maps may be used as input to Earth System Models and to evaluate other estimates of functional diversity.

  3. The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Nelson, Gerald; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Mason d' Croz, Daniel; Paltsev, S.; Rolinski, Susanne; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires a good prospective vision on the future development of food demand. This paper reviews modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating to the AgMIP project, in particular the demand function chosen and the set of parameters used. We compare food demand projections at the horizon 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios. Depending on models, we find for a business as usual scenario (SSP2) an increase in food demand of 59-98% by 2050, slightly higher than FAO projection (54%). The prospective for animal calories is particularly uncertain with a range of 61-144%, whereas FAO anticipates an increase by 76%. The projections reveal more sensitive to socio-economic assumptions than to climate change conditions or bioenergy development. When considering a higher population lower economic growth world (SSP3), consumption per capita drops by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. Various assumptions on climate change in this exercise do not lead to world calorie losses greater than 6%. Divergences across models are however notable, due to differences in demand system, income elasticities specification, and response to price change in the baseline.

  4. Mapping the global depth to bedrock for land surface modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shangguan, W.; Hengl, T.; Yuan, H.; Dai, Y. J.; Zhang, S.

    2017-12-01

    Depth to bedrock serves as the lower boundary of land surface models, which controls hydrologic and biogeochemical processes. This paper presents a framework for global estimation of Depth to bedrock (DTB). Observations were extracted from a global compilation of soil profile data (ca. 130,000 locations) and borehole data (ca. 1.6 million locations). Additional pseudo-observations generated by expert knowledge were added to fill in large sampling gaps. The model training points were then overlaid on a stack of 155 covariates including DEM-based hydrological and morphological derivatives, lithologic units, MODIS surfacee reflectance bands and vegetation indices derived from the MODIS land products. Global spatial prediction models were developed using random forests and Gradient Boosting Tree algorithms. The final predictions were generated at the spatial resolution of 250m as an ensemble prediction of the two independently fitted models. The 10-fold cross-validation shows that the models explain 59% for absolute DTB and 34% for censored DTB (depths deep than 200 cm are predicted as 200 cm). The model for occurrence of R horizon (bedrock) within 200 cm does a good job. Visual comparisons of predictions in the study areas where more detailed maps of depth to bedrock exist show that there is a general match with spatial patterns from similar local studies. Limitation of the data set and extrapolation in data spare areas should not be ignored in applications. To improve accuracy of spatial prediction, more borehole drilling logs will need to be added to supplement the existing training points in under-represented areas.

  5. The efficacy of psycho-educational group program on medication adherence and global functioning of patients with bipolar disorder type I.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahredar, Mohammad Jafar; Asgharnejad Farid, Ali Asghar; Ghanizadeh, Ahmad; Birashk, Behrooz

    2014-01-01

    Psycho-education is now considered as part of the integrated treatment for bipolar disorder. This study aimed to determine the efficacy of group psycho-education on medication adherence and global functioning of patients with bipolar disorder type I. 45 patients with bipolar disorder type I were allocated one of the three groups of psycho-education plus pharmacotherapy, pharmacotherapy and placebo plus pharmacotherapy. A psycho-educational program was conducted for the psycho-educational group during 9 weekly sessions. Medication adherence and global functioning of all the three groups were evaluated before the intervention, three months and six months after the intervention using Medication Adherence Rating Scale (MARS) and Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF). ANOVA was performed to examine the data. In the first and second assessments, the mean score of medication adherence and gobal functioning for patients in the psycho-educational group was significantly higher than that in the control and placebo groups (P=0.001). Medication adherence score of the psycho-educational group was increased from 6.27(0.88) to 7.92(1.38). while the mean score of the psycho-educational group increased from 56.6 (3.58) to 64.17 (2.12):, the global functioning reduced from 56.27(3.17) to 54.17(5.08) in the control group and from 56.67 (3.58) to 56 (4.36) in the placebo group. Psycho-educational program plus pharmacotherapy was effective in improvement medication adherence and global functioning of bipolar patients.

  6. Global climate model performance over Alaska and Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walsh, John E.; Chapman, William L.; Romanovsky, Vladimir

    2008-01-01

    The performance of a set of 15 global climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project is evaluated for Alaska and Greenland, and compared with the performance over broader pan-Arctic and Northern Hemisphere extratropical domains. Root-mean-square errors relative to the 1958...... to narrowing the uncertainty and obtaining more robust estimates of future climate change in regions such as Alaska, Greenland, and the broader Arctic....... of the models are generally much larger than the biases of the composite output, indicating that the systematic errors differ considerably among the models. There is a tendency for the models with smaller errors to simulate a larger greenhouse warming over the Arctic, as well as larger increases of Arctic...

  7. In-cloud oxalate formation in the global troposphere: a 3-D modeling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Myriokefalitakis

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Organic acids attract increasing attention as contributors to atmospheric acidity, secondary organic aerosol mass and aerosol hygroscopicity. Oxalic acid is globally the most abundant dicarboxylic acid, formed via chemical oxidation of gas-phase precursors in the aqueous phase of aerosols and droplets. Its lifecycle and atmospheric global distribution remain highly uncertain and are the focus of this study. The first global spatial and temporal distribution of oxalate, simulated using a state-of-the-art aqueous-phase chemical scheme embedded within the global 3-dimensional chemistry/transport model TM4-ECPL, is here presented. The model accounts for comprehensive gas-phase chemistry and its coupling with major aerosol constituents (including secondary organic aerosol. Model results are consistent with ambient observations of oxalate at rural and remote locations (slope = 1.16 ± 0.14, r2 = 0.36, N = 114 and suggest that aqueous-phase chemistry contributes significantly to the global atmospheric burden of secondary organic aerosol. In TM4-ECPL most oxalate is formed in-cloud and less than 5 % is produced in aerosol water. About 62 % of the oxalate is removed via wet deposition, 30 % by in-cloud reaction with hydroxyl radical, 4 % by in-cloud reaction with nitrate radical and 4 % by dry deposition. The in-cloud global oxalate net chemical production is calculated to be about 21–37 Tg yr−1 with almost 79 % originating from biogenic hydrocarbons, mainly isoprene. This condensed phase net source of oxalate in conjunction with a global mean turnover time against deposition of about 5 days, maintain oxalate's global tropospheric burden of 0.2–0.3 Tg, i.e. 0.05–0.1 Tg-C that is about 5–9 % of model-calculated water soluble organic carbon burden.

  8. River export of triclosan from land to sea: A global modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wijnen, Jikke; Ragas, Ad M J; Kroeze, Carolien

    2018-04-15

    Triclosan (TCS) is an antibacterial agent that is added to commonly used personal care products. Emitted to the aquatic environment in large quantities, it poses a potential threat to aquatic organisms. Triclosan enters the aquatic environment mainly through sewage effluent. We developed a global, spatially explicit model, the Global TCS model, to simulate triclosan transport by rivers to coastal areas. With this model we analysed annual, basin-wide triclosan export for the year 2000 and two future scenarios for the year 2050. Our analyses for 2000 indicate that triclosan export to coastal areas in Western Europe, Southeast Asia and the East Coast of the USA is higher than in the rest of the world. For future scenarios, the Global TCS model predicts an increase in river export of triclosan in Southeast Asia and a small decrease in Europe. The number of rivers with an annual average triclosan concentration at the river mouth that exceeds a PNEC of 26.2ng/L is projected to double between 2000 and 2050. This increase is most prominent in Southeast Asia, as a result of fast population growth, increasing urbanisation and increasing numbers of people connected to sewerage systems with poor wastewater treatment. Predicted triclosan loads correspond reasonably well with measured values. However, basin-specific predictions have considerable uncertainty due to lacking knowledge and location-specific data on the processes determining the fate of triclosan in river water, e.g. sorption, degradation and sedimentation. Additional research on the fate of triclosan in river systems is therefore recommended. We developed a global spatially explicit model to simulate triclosan export by rivers to coastal seas. For two future scenarios this Global TCS model projects an increase in river export of triclosan to several seas around the world. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Modeling the Effect of Oil Price on Global Fertilizer Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P-Y. Chen (Ping-Yu); C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); C-C. Chen (Chi-Chung); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and alternative volatility models, including the

  10. Hydrologic Derivatives for Modeling and Analysis—A new global high-resolution database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdin, Kristine L.

    2017-07-17

    The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a new global high-resolution hydrologic derivative database. Loosely modeled on the HYDRO1k database, this new database, entitled Hydrologic Derivatives for Modeling and Analysis, provides comprehensive and consistent global coverage of topographically derived raster layers (digital elevation model data, flow direction, flow accumulation, slope, and compound topographic index) and vector layers (streams and catchment boundaries). The coverage of the data is global, and the underlying digital elevation model is a hybrid of three datasets: HydroSHEDS (Hydrological data and maps based on SHuttle Elevation Derivatives at multiple Scales), GMTED2010 (Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010), and the SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission). For most of the globe south of 60°N., the raster resolution of the data is 3 arc-seconds, corresponding to the resolution of the SRTM. For the areas north of 60°N., the resolution is 7.5 arc-seconds (the highest resolution of the GMTED2010 dataset) except for Greenland, where the resolution is 30 arc-seconds. The streams and catchments are attributed with Pfafstetter codes, based on a hierarchical numbering system, that carry important topological information. This database is appropriate for use in continental-scale modeling efforts. The work described in this report was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center.

  11. Various oscillation patterns in phase models with locally attractive and globally repulsive couplings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Katsuhiko; Shima, Shin-ichiro

    2015-10-01

    We investigate a phase model that includes both locally attractive and globally repulsive coupling in one dimension. This model exhibits nontrivial spatiotemporal patterns that have not been observed in systems that contain only local or global coupling. Depending on the relative strengths of the local and global coupling and on the form of global coupling, the system can show a spatially uniform state (in-phase synchronization), a monotonically increasing state (traveling wave), and three types of oscillations of relative phase difference. One of the oscillations of relative phase difference has the characteristic of being locally unstable but globally attractive. That is, any small perturbation to the periodic orbit in phase space destroys its periodic motion, but after a long time the system returns to the original periodic orbit. This behavior is closely related to the emergence of saddle two-cluster states for global coupling only, which are connected to each other by attractive heteroclinic orbits. The mechanism of occurrence of this type of oscillation is discussed.

  12. GLOFRIM v1.0 – A globally applicable computational framework for integrated hydrological–hydrodynamic modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoch, J.M.; Neal, Jeffrey; Baart, Fedor; van Beek, L.P.H.; Winsemius, Hessel; Bates, Paul; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2017-01-01

    We here present GLOFRIM, a globally applicable computational framework for integrated hydrological–hydrodynamic modelling. GLOFRIM facilitates spatially explicit coupling of hydrodynamic and hydrologic models and caters for an ensemble of models to be coupled. It currently encompasses the global

  13. Modeling and Managing the Risks of Measles and Rubella: A Global Perspective, Part I.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Kimberly M; Cochi, Stephen L

    2016-07-01

    Over the past 50 years, the use of vaccines led to significant decreases in the global burdens of measles and rubella, motivated at least in part by the successive development of global control and elimination targets. The Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) includes specific targets for regional elimination of measles and rubella in five of six regions of the World Health Organization by 2020. Achieving the GVAP measles and rubella goals will require significant immunization efforts and associated financial investments and political commitments. Planning and budgeting for these efforts can benefit from learning some important lessons from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI). Following an overview of the global context of measles and rubella risks and discussion of lessons learned from the GPEI, we introduce the contents of the special issue on modeling and managing the risks of measles and rubella. This introduction describes the synthesis of the literature available to support evidence-based model inputs to support the development of an integrated economic and dynamic disease transmission model to support global efforts to optimally manage these diseases globally using vaccines. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Performance on naturalistic virtual reality tasks depends on global cognitive functioning as assessed via traditional neurocognitive tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Jorge; Gamito, Pedro; Alghazzawi, Daniyal M; Fardoun, Habib M; Rosa, Pedro J; Sousa, Tatiana; Picareli, Luís Felipe; Morais, Diogo; Lopes, Paulo

    2017-08-14

    This investigation sought to understand whether performance in naturalistic virtual reality tasks for cognitive assessment relates to the cognitive domains that are supposed to be measured. The Shoe Closet Test (SCT) was developed based on a simple visual search task involving attention skills, in which participants have to match each pair of shoes with the colors of the compartments in a virtual shoe closet. The interaction within the virtual environment was made using the Microsoft Kinect. The measures consisted of concurrent paper-and-pencil neurocognitive tests for global cognitive functioning, executive functions, attention, psychomotor ability, and the outcomes of the SCT. The results showed that the SCT correlated with global cognitive performance as measured with the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA). The SCT explained one third of the total variance of this test and revealed good sensitivity and specificity in discriminating scores below one standard deviation in this screening tool. These findings suggest that performance of such functional tasks involves a broad range of cognitive processes that are associated with global cognitive functioning and that may be difficult to isolate through paper-and-pencil neurocognitive tests.

  15. Protein loop modeling using a new hybrid energy function and its application to modeling in inaccurate structural environments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hahnbeom Park

    Full Text Available Protein loop modeling is a tool for predicting protein local structures of particular interest, providing opportunities for applications involving protein structure prediction and de novo protein design. Until recently, the majority of loop modeling methods have been developed and tested by reconstructing loops in frameworks of experimentally resolved structures. In many practical applications, however, the protein loops to be modeled are located in inaccurate structural environments. These include loops in model structures, low-resolution experimental structures, or experimental structures of different functional forms. Accordingly, discrepancies in the accuracy of the structural environment assumed in development of the method and that in practical applications present additional challenges to modern loop modeling methods. This study demonstrates a new strategy for employing a hybrid energy function combining physics-based and knowledge-based components to help tackle this challenge. The hybrid energy function is designed to combine the strengths of each energy component, simultaneously maintaining accurate loop structure prediction in a high-resolution framework structure and tolerating minor environmental errors in low-resolution structures. A loop modeling method based on global optimization of this new energy function is tested on loop targets situated in different levels of environmental errors, ranging from experimental structures to structures perturbed in backbone as well as side chains and template-based model structures. The new method performs comparably to force field-based approaches in loop reconstruction in crystal structures and better in loop prediction in inaccurate framework structures. This result suggests that higher-accuracy predictions would be possible for a broader range of applications. The web server for this method is available at http://galaxy.seoklab.org/loop with the PS2 option for the scoring function.

  16. Reductions in soil surface albedo as a function of biochar application rate: implications for global radiative forcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verheijen, F.G.A.; Jeffery, S.L.; Velde, te M.; Penizek, V.; Beland, M.; Bastos, A.C.; Keizer, J.J.

    2013-01-01

    Biochar can be defined as pyrolysed (charred) biomass produced for application to soils with the aim of mitigating global climate change while improving soil functions. Sustainable biochar application to soils has been estimated to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 71-130 Pg CO2-C-e over 100

  17. The GED4GEM project: development of a Global Exposure Database for the Global Earthquake Model initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamba, P.; Cavalca, D.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Huyck, C.; Crowley, H.

    2012-01-01

    In order to quantify earthquake risk of any selected region or a country of the world within the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) framework (www.globalquakemodel.org/), a systematic compilation of building inventory and population exposure is indispensable. Through the consortium of leading institutions and by engaging the domain-experts from multiple countries, the GED4GEM project has been working towards the development of a first comprehensive publicly available Global Exposure Database (GED). This geospatial exposure database will eventually facilitate global earthquake risk and loss estimation through GEM’s OpenQuake platform. This paper provides an overview of the GED concepts, aims, datasets, and inference methodology, as well as the current implementation scheme, status and way forward.

  18. Time-Dependent Global Sensitivity Analysis for Long-Term Degeneracy Model Using Polynomial Chaos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianbin Guo

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Global sensitivity is used to quantify the influence of uncertain model inputs on the output variability of static models in general. However, very few approaches can be applied for the sensitivity analysis of long-term degeneracy models, as far as time-dependent reliability is concerned. The reason is that the static sensitivity may not reflect the completed sensitivity during the entire life circle. This paper presents time-dependent global sensitivity analysis for long-term degeneracy models based on polynomial chaos expansion (PCE. Sobol’ indices are employed as the time-dependent global sensitivity since they provide accurate information on the selected uncertain inputs. In order to compute Sobol’ indices more efficiently, this paper proposes a moving least squares (MLS method to obtain the time-dependent PCE coefficients with acceptable simulation effort. Then Sobol’ indices can be calculated analytically as a postprocessing of the time-dependent PCE coefficients with almost no additional cost. A test case is used to show how to conduct the proposed method, then this approach is applied to an engineering case, and the time-dependent global sensitivity is obtained for the long-term degeneracy mechanism model.

  19. Protective Effects of Sodium (±-5-Bromo-2-(α-Hydroxypentyl Benzoate in a Rodent Model of Global Cerebral Ischemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Gao

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the current study was to explore the protective effects of sodium (±-5-bromo-2-(α-hydroxypentyl benzoate (brand name: brozopine, BZP in a rat model of global cerebral ischemia. The rat model was established using a modified Winocur’s method; close postoperative observation was conducted at all times. Neurological function was detected through prehensile traction and beam-walking test. BZP reduced mortality and prolonged the survival time of rats with global cerebral ischemia, within 24 h. There was a decreased survival rate (60% in the Model group, while the survival rate of the BZP (3 and 12 mg/kg remarkably increased the survival rate (to 80 and 90%, respectively, in a dose-dependent manner. Compared with the Model group (survival time: 18.50 h, the administration of BZP (0.75, 3, and 12 mg/kg prolonged the survival time (to 20.38, 21.85, and 23.90 h, respectively, particularly in BZP 12 mg/kg group (P < 0.05. Additionally, the BZP (12 mg/kg group exhibited an improvement in their motor function (P < 0.05. The BZP groups (0.75, 3, and 12 mg/kg displayed significantly reduced necrosis and the percentage of apoptotic cells (P < 0.05 and P < 0.01, respectively. Compared with Model group, BZP (0.75, 3, and 12 mg/kg increased the NeuN optical density values (P < 0.01. Rats with global ischemia had a high expression of Cyt-c, caspase-3, and the Bax/Bcl-2 ratio compared with sham group (P < 0.01. BZP (0.75, 3, and 12 mg/kg, however, reduced the expression of Cyt-c, caspase-3, and the Bax/Bcl-2 ratio, in a dose-dependent manner (P < 0.01. There was low expression of p-Akt and PI3K in Model group, compared with the sham group (P < 0.01. Meanwhile, BZP (0.75, 3, and 12 mg/kg increased the expression of p-Akt and PI3K in a dose-dependent manner (P < 0.01. We also found the expression of Cyt-c, caspase-3, Bax/Bcl-2 ratio, PI3K, p-Akt, and comprehensive score were directly related. In conclusion, BZP had therapeutic potential and prevented

  20. Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

    2014-11-01

    Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

  1. Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Assessment of global-scale model performance for global and regional ozone distributions, variability, and trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Young

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR is to provide the research community with an up-to-date scientific assessment of tropospheric ozone, from the surface to the tropopause. While a suite of observations provides significant information on the spatial and temporal distribution of tropospheric ozone, observational gaps make it necessary to use global atmospheric chemistry models to synthesize our understanding of the processes and variables that control tropospheric ozone abundance and its variability. Models facilitate the interpretation of the observations and allow us to make projections of future tropospheric ozone and trace gas distributions for different anthropogenic or natural perturbations. This paper assesses the skill of current-generation global atmospheric chemistry models in simulating the observed present-day tropospheric ozone distribution, variability, and trends. Drawing upon the results of recent international multi-model intercomparisons and using a range of model evaluation techniques, we demonstrate that global chemistry models are broadly skillful in capturing the spatio-temporal variations of tropospheric ozone over the seasonal cycle, for extreme pollution episodes, and changes over interannual to decadal periods. However, models are consistently biased high in the northern hemisphere and biased low in the southern hemisphere, throughout the depth of the troposphere, and are unable to replicate particular metrics that define the longer term trends in tropospheric ozone as derived from some background sites. When the models compare unfavorably against observations, we discuss the potential causes of model biases and propose directions for future developments, including improved evaluations that may be able to better diagnose the root cause of the model-observation disparity. Overall, model results should be approached critically, including determining whether the model performance is acceptable for

  2. Assessment of global left ventricular function with dual-source computed tomography in patients with valvular heart disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bak, So Hyeon; Jeon, Hae Jeong; Ko, Sung Min; Yang, Hyun Suk; Hwang, Hweung Kon; Song, Meong Gun

    2012-01-01

    Background: Left ventricular (LV) function is a vital parameter for prognosis, therapy guidance, and follow-up of cardiovascular disease. Dual-source computed tomography (DSCT) provides an accurate analysis of global LV function. Purpose: To assess the performance of DSCT in the determination of global LV functional parameters in comparison with cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) and two-dimensional transthoracic echocardiography (2D-TTE) in patients with valvular heart disease (VHD). Material and Methods: A total of 111 patients (58 men, mean age 49.9 years) with known VHD and who underwent DSCT, 2D-TTE, and CMR a period of 2 weeks before undergoing valve surgery were included in this study. LV end-systolic volume (ESV), end-diastolic volume (EDV), stroke volume (SV), and ejection fraction (EF) were calculated by DSCT using the threshold-based technique, by 2D-TTE using a modified Simpson's method, and by CMR using Simpson's method. Agreement for parameters of LV global function was determined with the Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) and Bland-Altman analysis. All the DSCT and CMR data-sets were assessed independently by two readers. Results: Fifty of the total 111 patients had aortic VHD, 29 patients had mitral VHD, and 32 patients had mixed aortic and mitral VHD. An excellent inter-observer agreement was seen for the assessment of global LV function using DSCT (r 0.910-0.983) and CMR (r = 0.854-0.965). An excellent or good correlation (r 0.93, 0.95, 0.87, and 0.71, respectively, P < 0.001) was noted between the DSCT and 2D-TTE values for EDV, ESV, SV, and EF. EDV (33.7 mL, P < 0.001), ESV (12.1 mL, P < 0.001), SV (21.2 mL, P < 0.001), and EF (1.6%, P = 0.019) were significantly overestimated by DSCT when compared with 2D-TTE. An excellent correlation (r = 0.96, 0.97, 0.91, and 0.94, respectively, P < 0.001) between DSCT and CMR was seen in the evaluation of EDV, ESV, SV, and EF. EDV (15.9 mL, P < 0.001), ESV (7.3 mL, P < 0.001), and SV (8.5 mL, P < 0

  3. The extrapolar SWIFT-model: Fast stratospheric ozone chemistry for global climate models

    OpenAIRE

    Kreyling, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this PhD-thesis was the development of a fast yet accurate chemistry scheme for an interactive calculation of the extrapolar stratospheric ozone layer. The SWIFT-model is mainly intended for use in Global Climate Models (GCMs). For computing-time reasons GCMs often do not employ full stratospheric chemistry modules, but use prescribed ozone instead. This method does not consider the interaction between atmospheric dynamics and the ozone layer and can neither resolve the inter-annu...

  4. Computing diffuse fraction of global horizontal solar radiation: A model comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dervishi, Sokol; Mahdavi, Ardeshir

    2012-06-01

    For simulation-based prediction of buildings' energy use or expected gains from building-integrated solar energy systems, information on both direct and diffuse component of solar radiation is necessary. Available measured data are, however, typically restricted to global horizontal irradiance. There have been thus many efforts in the past to develop algorithms for the derivation of the diffuse fraction of solar irradiance. In this context, the present paper compares eight models for estimating diffuse fraction of irradiance based on a database of measured irradiance from Vienna, Austria. These models generally involve mathematical formulations with multiple coefficients whose values are typically valid for a specific location. Subsequent to a first comparison of these eight models, three better performing models were selected for a more detailed analysis. Thereby, the coefficients of the models were modified to account for Vienna data. The results suggest that some models can provide relatively reliable estimations of the diffuse fractions of the global irradiance. The calibration procedure could only slightly improve the models' performance.

  5. A globally calibrated scheme for generating daily meteorology from monthly statistics: Global-WGEN (GWGEN) v1.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Philipp S.; Kaplan, Jed O.

    2017-10-01

    While a wide range of Earth system processes occur at daily and even subdaily timescales, many global vegetation and other terrestrial dynamics models historically used monthly meteorological forcing both to reduce computational demand and because global datasets were lacking. Recently, dynamic land surface modeling has moved towards resolving daily and subdaily processes, and global datasets containing daily and subdaily meteorology have become available. These meteorological datasets, however, cover only the instrumental era of the last approximately 120 years at best, are subject to considerable uncertainty, and represent extremely large data files with associated computational costs of data input/output and file transfer. For periods before the recent past or in the future, global meteorological forcing can be provided by climate model output, but the quality of these data at high temporal resolution is low, particularly for daily precipitation frequency and amount. Here, we present GWGEN, a globally applicable statistical weather generator for the temporal downscaling of monthly climatology to daily meteorology. Our weather generator is parameterized using a global meteorological database and simulates daily values of five common variables: minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, and wind speed. GWGEN is lightweight, modular, and requires a minimal set of monthly mean variables as input. The weather generator may be used in a range of applications, for example, in global vegetation, crop, soil erosion, or hydrological models. While GWGEN does not currently perform spatially autocorrelated multi-point downscaling of daily weather, this additional functionality could be implemented in future versions.

  6. Global Fluxon Modeling of the Solar Corona and Inner Heliosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, D. A.; DeForest, C. E.

    2017-12-01

    The fluxon approach to MHD modeling enables simulations of low-beta plasmas in the absence of undesirable numerical effects such as diffusion and magnetic reconnection. The magnetic field can be modeled as a collection of discrete field lines ("fluxons") containing a set amount of magnetic flux in a prescribed field topology. Due to the fluxon model's pseudo-Lagrangian grid, simulations can be completed in a fraction of the time of traditional grid-based simulations, enabling near-real-time simulations of the global magnetic field structure and its influence on solar wind properties. Using SDO/HMI synoptic magnetograms as lower magnetic boundary conditions, and a separate one-dimensional fluid flow model attached to each fluxon, we compare the resulting fluxon relaxations with other commonly-used global models (such as PFSS), and with white-light images of the corona (including the August 2017 total solar eclipse). Finally, we show the computed magnetic field expansion ratio, and the modeled solar wind speed near the coronal-heliospheric transition. Development of the fluxon MHD model FLUX (the Field Line Universal relaXer), has been funded by NASA's Living with a Star program and by Southwest Research Institute.

  7. Integration of Extended MHD and Kinetic Effects in Global Magnetosphere Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germaschewski, K.; Wang, L.; Maynard, K. R. M.; Raeder, J.; Bhattacharjee, A.

    2015-12-01

    Computational models of Earth's geospace environment are an important tool to investigate the science of the coupled solar-wind -- magnetosphere -- ionosphere system, complementing satellite and ground observations with a global perspective. They are also crucial in understanding and predicting space weather, in particular under extreme conditions. Traditionally, global models have employed the one-fluid MHD approximation, which captures large-scale dynamics quite well. However, in Earth's nearly collisionless plasma environment it breaks down on small scales, where ion and electron dynamics and kinetic effects become important, and greatly change the reconnection dynamics. A number of approaches have recently been taken to advance global modeling, e.g., including multiple ion species, adding Hall physics in a Generalized Ohm's Law, embedding local PIC simulations into a larger fluid domain and also some work on simulating the entire system with hybrid or fully kinetic models, the latter however being to computationally expensive to be run at realistic parameters. We will present an alternate approach, ie., a multi-fluid moment model that is derived rigorously from the Vlasov-Maxwell system. The advantage is that the computational cost remains managable, as we are still solving fluid equations. While the evolution equation for each moment is exact, it depends on the next higher-order moment, so that truncating the hiearchy and closing the system to capture the essential kinetic physics is crucial. We implement 5-moment (density, momentum, scalar pressure) and 10-moment (includes pressure tensor) versions of the model, and use local approximations for the heat flux to close the system. We test these closures by local simulations where we can compare directly to PIC / hybrid codes, and employ them in global simulations using the next-generation OpenGGCM to contrast them to MHD / Hall-MHD results and compare with observations.

  8. Ocean plankton. Structure and function of the global ocean microbiome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunagawa, Shinichi; Coelho, Luis Pedro; Chaffron, Samuel; Kultima, Jens Roat; Labadie, Karine; Salazar, Guillem; Djahanschiri, Bardya; Zeller, Georg; Mende, Daniel R; Alberti, Adriana; Cornejo-Castillo, Francisco M; Costea, Paul I; Cruaud, Corinne; d'Ovidio, Francesco; Engelen, Stefan; Ferrera, Isabel; Gasol, Josep M; Guidi, Lionel; Hildebrand, Falk; Kokoszka, Florian; Lepoivre, Cyrille; Lima-Mendez, Gipsi; Poulain, Julie; Poulos, Bonnie T; Royo-Llonch, Marta; Sarmento, Hugo; Vieira-Silva, Sara; Dimier, Céline; Picheral, Marc; Searson, Sarah; Kandels-Lewis, Stefanie; Bowler, Chris; de Vargas, Colomban; Gorsky, Gabriel; Grimsley, Nigel; Hingamp, Pascal; Iudicone, Daniele; Jaillon, Olivier; Not, Fabrice; Ogata, Hiroyuki; Pesant, Stephane; Speich, Sabrina; Stemmann, Lars; Sullivan, Matthew B; Weissenbach, Jean; Wincker, Patrick; Karsenti, Eric; Raes, Jeroen; Acinas, Silvia G; Bork, Peer

    2015-05-22

    Microbes are dominant drivers of biogeochemical processes, yet drawing a global picture of functional diversity, microbial community structure, and their ecological determinants remains a grand challenge. We analyzed 7.2 terabases of metagenomic data from 243 Tara Oceans samples from 68 locations in epipelagic and mesopelagic waters across the globe to generate an ocean microbial reference gene catalog with >40 million nonredundant, mostly novel sequences from viruses, prokaryotes, and picoeukaryotes. Using 139 prokaryote-enriched samples, containing >35,000 species, we show vertical stratification with epipelagic community composition mostly driven by temperature rather than other environmental factors or geography. We identify ocean microbial core functionality and reveal that >73% of its abundance is shared with the human gut microbiome despite the physicochemical differences between these two ecosystems. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  9. Hydrodynamic modelling and global datasets: Flow connectivity and SRTM data, a Bangkok case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigg, M. A.; Bates, P. B.; Michaelides, K.

    2012-04-01

    The rise in the global interconnected manufacturing supply chains requires an understanding and consistent quantification of flood risk at a global scale. Flood risk is often better quantified (or at least more precisely defined) in regions where there has been an investment in comprehensive topographical data collection such as LiDAR coupled with detailed hydrodynamic modelling. Yet in regions where these data and modelling are unavailable, the implications of flooding and the knock on effects for global industries can be dramatic, as evidenced by the recent floods in Bangkok, Thailand. There is a growing momentum in terms of global modelling initiatives to address this lack of a consistent understanding of flood risk and they will rely heavily on the application of available global datasets relevant to hydrodynamic modelling, such as Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data and its derivatives. These global datasets bring opportunities to apply consistent methodologies on an automated basis in all regions, while the use of coarser scale datasets also brings many challenges such as sub-grid process representation and downscaled hydrology data from global climate models. There are significant opportunities for hydrological science in helping define new, realistic and physically based methodologies that can be applied globally as well as the possibility of gaining new insights into flood risk through analysis of the many large datasets that will be derived from this work. We use Bangkok as a case study to explore some of the issues related to using these available global datasets for hydrodynamic modelling, with particular focus on using SRTM data to represent topography. Research has shown that flow connectivity on the floodplain is an important component in the dynamics of flood flows on to and off the floodplain, and indeed within different areas of the floodplain. A lack of representation of flow connectivity, often due to data resolution limitations, means

  10. An alternative ionospheric correction model for global navigation satellite systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoque, M. M.; Jakowski, N.

    2015-04-01

    The ionosphere is recognized as a major error source for single-frequency operations of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). To enhance single-frequency operations the global positioning system (GPS) uses an ionospheric correction algorithm (ICA) driven by 8 coefficients broadcasted in the navigation message every 24 h. Similarly, the global navigation satellite system Galileo uses the electron density NeQuick model for ionospheric correction. The Galileo satellite vehicles (SVs) transmit 3 ionospheric correction coefficients as driver parameters of the NeQuick model. In the present work, we propose an alternative ionospheric correction algorithm called Neustrelitz TEC broadcast model NTCM-BC that is also applicable for global satellite navigation systems. Like the GPS ICA or Galileo NeQuick, the NTCM-BC can be optimized on a daily basis by utilizing GNSS data obtained at the previous day at monitor stations. To drive the NTCM-BC, 9 ionospheric correction coefficients need to be uploaded to the SVs for broadcasting in the navigation message. Our investigation using GPS data of about 200 worldwide ground stations shows that the 24-h-ahead prediction performance of the NTCM-BC is better than the GPS ICA and comparable to the Galileo NeQuick model. We have found that the 95 percentiles of the prediction error are about 16.1, 16.1 and 13.4 TECU for the GPS ICA, Galileo NeQuick and NTCM-BC, respectively, during a selected quiet ionospheric period, whereas the corresponding numbers are found about 40.5, 28.2 and 26.5 TECU during a selected geomagnetic perturbed period. However, in terms of complexity the NTCM-BC is easier to handle than the Galileo NeQuick and in this respect comparable to the GPS ICA.

  11. The carbon cycle in a land surface model: modelling, validation and implementation at a global scale; Cycle du carbone dans un modele de surface continentale: modelisation, validation et mise en oeuvre a l'echelle globale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gibelin, A L

    2007-05-15

    ISBA-A-gs is an option of the CNRM land surface model ISBA which allows for the simulation of carbon exchanges between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. The model was implemented for the first time at the global scale as a stand-alone model. Several global simulations were performed to assess the sensitivity of the turbulent fluxes and Leaf Area Index to a doubling of the CO{sub 2} atmospheric concentration, and to the climate change simulated by the end of the 21. century. In addition, a new option of ISBA, referred to as ISBA-CC, was developed in order to simulate a more detailed ecosystem respiration by separating the autotrophic respiration and the heterotrophic respiration. The vegetation dynamics and the carbon fluxes were validated at a global scale using satellite datasets, and at a local scale using data from 26 sites of the FLUXNET network. All these results show that the model is sufficiently realistic to be coupled with a general circulation model, in order to account for interactions between the terrestrial biosphere, the atmosphere and the carbon cycle. (author)

  12. A review of and perspectives on global change modeling for Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Kicklighter, David W.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Zhuang, Qianlai; Sokolik, Irina N.; Lawford, Richard; Kappas, Martin; Paltsev, Sergey V.; Groisman, Pavel Ya

    2017-08-01

    Northern Eurasia is made up of a complex and diverse set of physical, ecological, climatic and human systems, which provide important ecosystem services including the storage of substantial stocks of carbon in its terrestrial ecosystems. At the same time, the region has experienced dramatic climate change, natural disturbances and changes in land management practices over the past century. For these reasons, Northern Eurasia is both a critical region to understand and a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. This review is designed to highlight the state of past and ongoing efforts of the research community to understand and model these environmental, socioeconomic, and climatic changes. We further aim to provide perspectives on the future direction of global change modeling to improve our understanding of the role of Northern Eurasia in the coupled human-Earth system. Modeling efforts have shown that environmental and socioeconomic changes in Northern Eurasia can have major impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems services, environmental sustainability, and the carbon cycle of the region, and beyond. These impacts have the potential to feedback onto and alter the global Earth system. We find that past and ongoing studies have largely focused on specific components of Earth system dynamics and have not systematically examined their feedbacks to the global Earth system and to society. We identify the crucial role of Earth system models in advancing our understanding of feedbacks within the region and with the global system. We further argue for the need for integrated assessment models (IAMs), a suite of models that couple human activity models to Earth system models, which are key to address many emerging issues that require a representation of the coupled human-Earth system.

  13. GAMBIT: the global and modular beyond-the-standard-model inference tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Athron, Peter; Balazs, Csaba; Bringmann, Torsten; Buckley, Andy; Chrząszcz, Marcin; Conrad, Jan; Cornell, Jonathan M.; Dal, Lars A.; Dickinson, Hugh; Edsjö, Joakim; Farmer, Ben; Gonzalo, Tomás E.; Jackson, Paul; Krislock, Abram; Kvellestad, Anders; Lundberg, Johan; McKay, James; Mahmoudi, Farvah; Martinez, Gregory D.; Putze, Antje; Raklev, Are; Ripken, Joachim; Rogan, Christopher; Saavedra, Aldo; Savage, Christopher; Scott, Pat; Seo, Seon-Hee; Serra, Nicola; Weniger, Christoph; White, Martin; Wild, Sebastian

    2017-11-01

    We describe the open-source global fitting package GAMBIT: the Global And Modular Beyond-the-Standard-Model Inference Tool. GAMBIT combines extensive calculations of observables and likelihoods in particle and astroparticle physics with a hierarchical model database, advanced tools for automatically building analyses of essentially any model, a flexible and powerful system for interfacing to external codes, a suite of different statistical methods and parameter scanning algorithms, and a host of other utilities designed to make scans faster, safer and more easily-extendible than in the past. Here we give a detailed description of the framework, its design and motivation, and the current models and other specific components presently implemented in GAMBIT. Accompanying papers deal with individual modules and present first GAMBIT results. GAMBIT can be downloaded from gambit.hepforge.org.

  14. GAMBIT. The global and modular beyond-the-standard-model inference tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Athron, Peter; Balazs, Csaba [Monash University, School of Physics and Astronomy, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale (Australia); Bringmann, Torsten; Dal, Lars A.; Gonzalo, Tomas E.; Krislock, Abram; Raklev, Are [University of Oslo, Department of Physics, Oslo (Norway); Buckley, Andy [University of Glasgow, SUPA, School of Physics and Astronomy, Glasgow (United Kingdom); Chrzaszcz, Marcin [Universitaet Zuerich, Physik-Institut, Zurich (Switzerland); Polish Academy of Sciences, H. Niewodniczanski Institute of Nuclear Physics, Krakow (Poland); Conrad, Jan; Edsjoe, Joakim; Farmer, Ben; Lundberg, Johan [AlbaNova University Centre, Oskar Klein Centre for Cosmoparticle Physics, Stockholm (Sweden); Stockholm University, Department of Physics, Stockholm (Sweden); Cornell, Jonathan M. [McGill University, Department of Physics, Montreal, QC (Canada); Dickinson, Hugh [University of Minnesota, Minnesota Institute for Astrophysics, Minneapolis, MN (United States); Jackson, Paul; White, Martin [Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale (Australia); University of Adelaide, Department of Physics, Adelaide, SA (Australia); Kvellestad, Anders; Savage, Christopher [NORDITA, Stockholm (Sweden); McKay, James [Imperial College London, Blackett Laboratory, Department of Physics, London (United Kingdom); Mahmoudi, Farvah [Univ Lyon, Univ Lyon 1, ENS de Lyon, CNRS, Centre de Recherche Astrophysique de Lyon UMR5574, Saint-Genis-Laval (France); CERN, Theoretical Physics Department, Geneva (Switzerland); Martinez, Gregory D. [University of California, Physics and Astronomy Department, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Putze, Antje [LAPTh, Universite de Savoie, CNRS, Annecy-le-Vieux (France); Ripken, Joachim [Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research, Goettingen (Germany); Rogan, Christopher [Harvard University, Department of Physics, Cambridge, MA (United States); Saavedra, Aldo [Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale (Australia); The University of Sydney, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technologies, Centre for Translational Data Science, School of Physics, Sydney, NSW (Australia); Scott, Pat [Imperial College London, Blackett Laboratory, Department of Physics, London (United Kingdom); Seo, Seon-Hee [Seoul National University, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Serra, Nicola [Universitaet Zuerich, Physik-Institut, Zurich (Switzerland); Weniger, Christoph [University of Amsterdam, GRAPPA, Institute of Physics, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Wild, Sebastian [DESY, Hamburg (Germany); Collaboration: The GAMBIT Collaboration

    2017-11-15

    We describe the open-source global fitting package GAMBIT: the Global And Modular Beyond-the-Standard-Model Inference Tool. GAMBIT combines extensive calculations of observables and likelihoods in particle and astroparticle physics with a hierarchical model database, advanced tools for automatically building analyses of essentially any model, a flexible and powerful system for interfacing to external codes, a suite of different statistical methods and parameter scanning algorithms, and a host of other utilities designed to make scans faster, safer and more easily-extendible than in the past. Here we give a detailed description of the framework, its design and motivation, and the current models and other specific components presently implemented in GAMBIT. Accompanying papers deal with individual modules and present first GAMBIT results. GAMBIT can be downloaded from gambit.hepforge.org. (orig.)

  15. GAMBIT. The global and modular beyond-the-standard-model inference tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Athron, Peter; Balazs, Csaba; Bringmann, Torsten; Dal, Lars A.; Gonzalo, Tomas E.; Krislock, Abram; Raklev, Are; Buckley, Andy; Chrzaszcz, Marcin; Conrad, Jan; Edsjoe, Joakim; Farmer, Ben; Lundberg, Johan; Cornell, Jonathan M.; Dickinson, Hugh; Jackson, Paul; White, Martin; Kvellestad, Anders; Savage, Christopher; McKay, James; Mahmoudi, Farvah; Martinez, Gregory D.; Putze, Antje; Ripken, Joachim; Rogan, Christopher; Saavedra, Aldo; Scott, Pat; Seo, Seon-Hee; Serra, Nicola; Weniger, Christoph; Wild, Sebastian

    2017-01-01

    We describe the open-source global fitting package GAMBIT: the Global And Modular Beyond-the-Standard-Model Inference Tool. GAMBIT combines extensive calculations of observables and likelihoods in particle and astroparticle physics with a hierarchical model database, advanced tools for automatically building analyses of essentially any model, a flexible and powerful system for interfacing to external codes, a suite of different statistical methods and parameter scanning algorithms, and a host of other utilities designed to make scans faster, safer and more easily-extendible than in the past. Here we give a detailed description of the framework, its design and motivation, and the current models and other specific components presently implemented in GAMBIT. Accompanying papers deal with individual modules and present first GAMBIT results. GAMBIT can be downloaded from gambit.hepforge.org. (orig.)

  16. Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to Simulate the Response of Vegetation to Warming at the Paleocene-Eocene Boundary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shellito, C. J.; Sloan, L. C.

    2004-12-01

    A major turnover in benthic marine and terrestrial fauna marks the Initial Eocene Thermal Maximum (IETM) (~55Ma), a period of ~150 ky in which there was a rapid rise in deep sea and high latitude sea surface temperatures by 5-8C. Curiously, no major responses to this warming in the terrestrial floral record have been detected to date. Here, we present results from experiments examining the response of the global distribution of vegetation to changes in climate at the IETM using the NCAR Land Surface Model (LSM1.2) integrated with a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). DGVMs allow vegetation to respond to and interact with climate, and thus, provide a unique new method for addressing questions regarding feedbacks between the ecosystem and climate in Earth's past. However, there are a number of drawbacks to using these models that can affect interpretation of results. More specifically, these drawbacks involve uncertainties in the application of modern plant functional types to paleo-flora simulations, inaccuracies in the model climatology used to drive the DGVM, and lack of available detail regarding paleo-geography and paleo-soil type for use in model boundary conditions. For a better understanding of these drawbacks, we present results from a series of tests in the NCAR LSM-DGVM which examine (1) the effect of removing C4 grasses from the available plant functional types in the model; (2) model sensitivity to a change in soil texture; and (3), model sensitivity to a change in the value of pCO2 used in the photosynthetic rate equations. We consider our DGVM results for the IETM in light of output from these sensitivity experiments.

  17. Directional and Spectral Irradiance in Ocean Models: Effects on Simulated Global Phytoplankton, Nutrients, and Primary Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Watson W.; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

    2016-01-01

    The importance of including directional and spectral light in simulations of ocean radiative transfer was investigated using a coupled biogeochemical-circulation-radiative model of the global oceans. The effort focused on phytoplankton abundances, nutrient concentrations and vertically-integrated net primary production. The importance was approached by sequentially removing directional (i.e., direct vs. diffuse) and spectral irradiance and comparing results of the above variables to a fully directionally and spectrally-resolved model. In each case the total irradiance was kept constant; it was only the pathways and spectral nature that were changed. Assuming all irradiance was diffuse had negligible effect on global ocean primary production. Global nitrate and total chlorophyll concentrations declined by about 20% each. The largest changes occurred in the tropics and sub-tropics rather than the high latitudes, where most of the irradiance is already diffuse. Disregarding spectral irradiance had effects that depended upon the choice of attenuation wavelength. The wavelength closest to the spectrally-resolved model, 500 nm, produced lower nitrate (19%) and chlorophyll (8%) and higher primary production (2%) than the spectral model. Phytoplankton relative abundances were very sensitive to the choice of non-spectral wavelength transmittance. The combined effects of neglecting both directional and spectral irradiance exacerbated the differences, despite using attenuation at 500 nm. Global nitrate decreased 33% and chlorophyll decreased 24%. Changes in phytoplankton community structure were considerable, representing a change from chlorophytes to cyanobacteria and coccolithophores. This suggested a shift in community function, from light-limitation to nutrient limitation: lower demands for nutrients from cyanobacteria and coccolithophores favored them over the more nutrient-demanding chlorophytes. Although diatoms have the highest nutrient demands in the model, their

  18. Comparison of modeling approaches for carbon partitioning: Impact on estimates of global net primary production and equilibrium biomass of woody vegetation from MODIS GPP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ise, Takeshi; Litton, Creighton M.; Giardina, Christian P.; Ito, Akihiko

    2010-12-01

    Partitioning of gross primary production (GPP) to aboveground versus belowground, to growth versus respiration, and to short versus long-lived tissues exerts a strong influence on ecosystem structure and function, with potentially large implications for the global carbon budget. A recent meta-analysis of forest ecosystems suggests that carbon partitioning to leaves, stems, and roots varies consistently with GPP and that the ratio of net primary production (NPP) to GPP is conservative across environmental gradients. To examine influences of carbon partitioning schemes employed by global ecosystem models, we used this meta-analysis-based model and a satellite-based (MODIS) terrestrial GPP data set to estimate global woody NPP and equilibrium biomass, and then compared it to two process-based ecosystem models (Biome-BGC and VISIT) using the same GPP data set. We hypothesized that different carbon partitioning schemes would result in large differences in global estimates of woody NPP and equilibrium biomass. Woody NPP estimated by Biome-BGC and VISIT was 25% and 29% higher than the meta-analysis-based model for boreal forests, with smaller differences in temperate and tropics. Global equilibrium woody biomass, calculated from model-specific NPP estimates and a single set of tissue turnover rates, was 48 and 226 Pg C higher for Biome-BGC and VISIT compared to the meta-analysis-based model, reflecting differences in carbon partitioning to structural versus metabolically active tissues. In summary, we found that different carbon partitioning schemes resulted in large variations in estimates of global woody carbon flux and storage, indicating that stand-level controls on carbon partitioning are not yet accurately represented in ecosystem models.

  19. Global embedding of fibre inflation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cicoli, Michele [Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia, Università di Bologna,via Irnerio 46, 40126 Bologna (Italy); INFN - Sezione di Bologna,viale Berti Pichat 6/2, 40127 Bologna (Italy); Abdus Salam ICTP,Strada Costiera 11, Trieste 34151 (Italy); Muia, Francesco [Rudolf Peierls Centre for Theoretical Physics, University of Oxford,1 Keble Rd., Oxford OX1 3NP (United Kingdom); Shukla, Pramod [Abdus Salam ICTP,Strada Costiera 11, Trieste 34151 (Italy)

    2016-11-30

    We present concrete embeddings of fibre inflation models in globally consistent type IIB Calabi-Yau orientifolds with closed string moduli stabilisation. After performing a systematic search through the existing list of toric Calabi-Yau manifolds, we find several examples that reproduce the minimal setup to embed fibre inflation models. This involves Calabi-Yau manifolds with h{sup 1,1}=3 which are K3 fibrations over a ℙ{sup 1} base with an additional shrinkable rigid divisor. We then provide different consistent choices of the underlying brane set-up which generate a non-perturbative superpotential suitable for moduli stabilisation and string loop corrections with the correct form to drive inflation. For each Calabi-Yau orientifold setting, we also compute the effect of higher derivative contributions and study their influence on the inflationary dynamics.

  20. Global sensitivity analysis of thermomechanical models in modelling of welding; Analyse de sensibilite globale de modeles thermomecanique de simulation numerique du soudage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petelet, M

    2008-07-01

    Current approach of most welding modellers is to content themselves with available material data, and to chose a mechanical model that seems to be appropriate. Among inputs, those controlling the material properties are one of the key problems of welding simulation: material data are never characterized over a sufficiently wide temperature range. This way to proceed neglect the influence of the uncertainty of input data on the result given by the computer code. In this case, how to assess the credibility of prediction? This thesis represents a step in the direction of implementing an innovative approach in welding simulation in order to bring answers to this question, with an illustration on some concretes welding cases.The global sensitivity analysis is chosen to determine which material properties are the most sensitive in a numerical welding simulation and in which range of temperature. Using this methodology require some developments to sample and explore the input space covering welding of different steel materials. Finally, input data have been divided in two groups according to their influence on the output of the model (residual stress or distortion). In this work, complete methodology of the global sensitivity analysis has been successfully applied to welding simulation and lead to reduce the input space to the only important variables. Sensitivity analysis has provided answers to what can be considered as one of the probable frequently asked questions regarding welding simulation: for a given material which properties must be measured with a good accuracy and which ones can be simply extrapolated or taken from a similar material? (author)