WorldWideScience

Sample records for global emission trends

  1. Trends in global CO2 emissions. 2013 Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olivier, J.G.J.; Peters, J.A.H.W. [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Den Haag (Netherlands); Janssens-Maenhout, G. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, European Commission' s Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy); Muntean, M. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy)

    2013-10-15

    This report discusses the results of a trend assessment of global CO2 emissions up to 2012 and updates last year's assessment. This assessment focuses on the changes in annual CO2 emissions from 2011 to 2012, and includes not only fossil-fuel combustion on which the BP reports are based, but also incorporates other relevant CO2 emissions sources including flaring of waste gas during gas and oil production, cement clinker production and other limestone uses, feedstock and other non-energy uses of fuels, and several other small sources. The report clarifies the CO2 emission sources covered, and describes the methodology and data sources. More details are provided in Annex 1 over the 2010-2012 period, including a discussion of the degree of uncertainty in national and global CO2 emission estimates. Chapter 2 presents a summary of recent CO2 emission trends, per main country or region, including a comparison between emissions per capita and per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and of the underlying trend in fossil-fuel production and use, non-fossil energy and other CO2 sources. Specific attention is given to developments in shale gas and oil production and oil sands production and their impact on CO2 emissions. To provide a broader context of global emissions trends, international greenhouse gas mitigation targets and agreements are also presented, including different perspectives of emission accounting per country. In particular, annual trends with respect to the Kyoto Protocol target and Cancun agreements and cumulative global CO2 emissions of the last decade are compared with scientific literature that analyses global emissions in relation to the target of 2{sup 0}C maximum global warming in the 21st century, which was adopted in the UN climate negotiations. In addition, we briefly discuss the rapid development and implementation of various emission trading schemes, because of their increasing importance as a cross-cutting policy instrument for mitigating

  2. Trends in global CO2 emissions. 2012 Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olivier, J.G.J.; Peters, J.A.H.W. [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Den Haag (Netherlands); Janssens-Maenhout, G. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, European Commission' s Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy)

    2012-07-15

    This report discusses the results of a trend assessment of global CO2 emissions up to 2011 and updates last year's assessment. This assessment focusses on the changes in annual CO2 emissions from 2010 to 2011, and includes not only fossil fuel combustion on which the BP reports are based, but also incorporates all other relevant CO2 emissions sources including flaring of waste gas during oil production, cement clinker production and other limestone uses, feedstock and other non-energy uses of fuels, and several other small sources. After a short description of the methods used (Chapter 2), we first present a summary of recent CO2 emission trends, by region and by country, and of the underlying trend of fossil fuel use, non-fossil energy and of other CO2 sources (Chapter 3). To provide a broader context of the global trends we also assess the cumulative global CO2 emissions of the last decade, i.e. since 2000, and compare it with scientific literature that analyse global emissions in relation to the target of 2C maximum global warming in the 21st century, which was adopted in the UN climate negotiations (Chapter 4). Compared to last year's report, Annex 1 includes a more detailed and updated discussion of the uncertainty in national and global CO2 emission estimates.

  3. Trends in global CO2 emissions. 2012 Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olivier, J. G.J.; Peters, J. A.H.W. [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Den Haag (Netherlands); Janssens-Maenhout, G. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, European Commission' s Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy)

    2012-07-15

    This report discusses the results of a trend assessment of global CO2 emissions up to 2011 and updates last year's assessment. This assessment focusses on the changes in annual CO2 emissions from 2010 to 2011, and includes not only fossil fuel combustion on which the BP reports are based, but also incorporates all other relevant CO2 emissions sources including flaring of waste gas during oil production, cement clinker production and other limestone uses, feedstock and other non-energy uses of fuels, and several other small sources. After a short description of the methods used (Chapter 2), we first present a summary of recent CO2 emission trends, by region and by country, and of the underlying trend of fossil fuel use, non-fossil energy and of other CO2 sources (Chapter 3). To provide a broader context of the global trends we also assess the cumulative global CO2 emissions of the last decade, i.e. since 2000, and compare it with scientific literature that analyse global emissions in relation to the target of 2C maximum global warming in the 21st century, which was adopted in the UN climate negotiations (Chapter 4). Compared to last year's report, Annex 1 includes a more detailed and updated discussion of the uncertainty in national and global CO2 emission estimates.

  4. Global distribution of methane emissions, emission trends, and OH trends inferred from an inversion of GOSAT data for 2010-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maasakkers, J. D.; Jacob, D.; Payer Sulprizio, M.; Hersher, M.; Scarpelli, T.; Turner, A. J.; Sheng, J.; Bloom, A. A.; Bowman, K. W.; Parker, R.

    2017-12-01

    We present a global inversion of methane sources and sinks using GOSAT satellite data from 2010 up to 2015. The inversion optimizes emissions and their trends at 4° × 5° resolution as well as the interannual variability of global OH concentrations. It uses an analytical approach that quantifies the information content from the GOSAT observations and provides full error characterization. We show how the analytical approach can be applied in log-space, ensuring the positivity of the posterior. The inversion starts from state-of-science a priori emission inventories including the Gridded EPA inventory for US anthropogenic emissions, detailed oil and gas emissions for Canada and Mexico, EDGAR v4.3.2 for anthropogenic emissions in other countries, the WetCHARTs product for wetlands, and our own estimates for geological seeps. Inversion results show lower emissions over Western Europe and China than predicted by EDGAR v4.3.2 but higher emissions over Japan. In contrast to previous inversions that used incorrect patterns in a priori emissions, we find that the EPA inventory does not underestimate US anthropogenic emissions. Results for trends show increasing emissions in the tropics combined with decreasing emissions in Europe, and a decline in OH concentrations contributing to the global methane trend.

  5. Sectoral trends in global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    de Ia Rue du Can, Stephane; Price, Lynn

    2008-01-01

    Integrated assessment models have been used to project both baseline and mitigation greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results of these scenarios are typically presented for a number of world regions and end-use sectors, such as industry, transport, and buildings. Analysts interested in particular technologies and policies, however, require more detailed information to understand specific mitigation options in relation to business-as-usual trends. This paper presents sectoral trend for two of the scenarios produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Global and regional historical trends in energy use and carbon dioxide emissions over the past 30 years are examined and contrasted with projections over the next 30 years. Macro-activity indicators are analyzed as well as trends in sectoral energy and carbon demand. This paper also describes a methodology to calculate primary energy and carbon dioxide emissions at the sector level, accounting for the full energy and emissions due to sectoral activities. (author)

  6. Trends and inter-annual variability of methane emissions derived from 1979-1993 global CTM simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dentener

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The trend and interannual variability of methane sources are derived from multi-annual simulations of tropospheric photochemistry using a 3-D global chemistry-transport model. Our semi-inverse analysis uses the fifteen years (1979--1993 re-analysis of ECMWF meteorological data and annually varying emissions including photo-chemistry, in conjunction with observed CH4 concentration distributions and trends derived from the NOAA-CMDL surface stations. Dividing the world in four zonal regions (45--90 N, 0--45 N, 0--45 S, 45--90 S we find good agreement in each region between (top-down calculated emission trends from model simulations and (bottom-up estimated anthropogenic emission trends based on the EDGAR global anthropogenic emission database, which amounts for the period 1979--1993 2.7 Tg CH4 yr-1. Also the top-down determined total global methane emission compares well with the total of the bottom-up estimates. We use the difference between the bottom-up and top-down determined emission trends to calculate residual emissions. These residual emissions represent the inter-annual variability of the methane emissions. Simulations have been performed in which the year-to-year meteorology, the emissions of ozone precursor gases, and the stratospheric ozone column distribution are either varied, or kept constant. In studies of methane trends it is most important to include the trends and variability of the oxidant fields. The analyses reveals that the variability of the emissions is of the order of 8Tg CH4 yr-1, and likely related to wetland emissions and/or biomass burning.

  7. Trends and Variability of Global Fire Emissions Due To Historical Anthropogenic Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Daniel S.; Shevliakova, Elena; Malyshev, Sergey; Rabin, Sam

    2018-01-01

    Globally, fires are a major source of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere, occurring on a seasonal cycle and with substantial interannual variability. To understand past trends and variability in sources and sinks of terrestrial carbon, we need quantitative estimates of global fire distributions. Here we introduce an updated version of the Fire Including Natural and Agricultural Lands model, version 2 (FINAL.2), modified to include multiday burning and enhanced fire spread rate in forest crowns. We demonstrate that the improved model reproduces the interannual variability and spatial distribution of fire emissions reported in present-day remotely sensed inventories. We use FINAL.2 to simulate historical (post-1700) fires and attribute past fire trends and variability to individual drivers: land use and land cover change, population growth, and lightning variability. Global fire emissions of carbon increase by about 10% between 1700 and 1900, reaching a maximum of 3.4 Pg C yr-1 in the 1910s, followed by a decrease to about 5% below year 1700 levels by 2010. The decrease in emissions from the 1910s to the present day is driven mainly by land use change, with a smaller contribution from increased fire suppression due to increased human population and is largest in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Interannual variability of global fire emissions is similar in the present day as in the early historical period, but present-day wildfires would be more variable in the absence of land use change.

  8. Decadal trends in global CO emissions as seen by MOPITT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Y.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Broquet, G.; Fortems-Cheiney, A.; Pison, I.; Saunois, M.

    2015-12-01

    Negative trends of carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations are observed in the recent decade by both surface measurements and satellite retrievals over many regions of the globe, but they are not well explained by current emission inventories. Here, we analyse the observed CO concentration decline with an atmospheric inversion that simultaneously optimizes the two main CO sources (surface emissions and atmospheric hydrocarbon oxidations) and the main CO sink (atmospheric hydroxyl radical OH oxidation). Satellite CO column retrievals from Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT), version 6, and surface observations of methane and methyl chloroform mole fractions are assimilated jointly for the period covering 2002-2011. Compared to the model simulation prescribed with prior emission inventories, trends in the optimized CO concentrations show better agreement with that of independent surface in situ measurements. At the global scale, the atmospheric inversion primarily interprets the CO concentration decline as a decrease in the CO emissions (-2.3 % yr-1), more than twice the negative trend estimated by the prior emission inventories (-1.0 % yr-1). The spatial distribution of the inferred decrease in CO emissions indicates contributions from western Europe (-4.0 % yr-1), the United States (-4.6 % yr-1) and East Asia (-1.2 % yr-1), where anthropogenic fuel combustion generally dominates the overall CO emissions, and also from Australia (-5.3 % yr-1), the Indo-China Peninsula (-5.6 % yr-1), Indonesia (-6.7 % y-1), and South America (-3 % yr-1), where CO emissions are mostly due to biomass burning. In contradiction with the bottom-up inventories that report an increase of 2 % yr-1 over China during the study period, a significant emission decrease of 1.1 % yr-1 is inferred by the inversion. A large decrease in CO emission factors due to technology improvements would outweigh the increase in carbon fuel combustions and may explain this decrease. Independent

  9. Sector trends and driving forces of global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions: focus in industry and buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Price, Lynn; Worrell, Ernst; Khrushch, Marta

    1999-09-01

    Disaggregation of sectoral energy use and greenhouse gas emissions trends reveals striking differences between sectors and regions of the world. Understanding key driving forces in the energy end-use sectors provides insights for development of projections of future greenhouse gas emissions. This report examines global and regional historical trends in energy use and carbon emissions in the industrial, buildings, transport, and agriculture sectors, with a more detailed focus on industry and buildings. Activity and economic drivers as well as trends in energy and carbon intensity are evaluated. The authors show that macro-economic indicators, such as GDP, are insufficient for comprehending trends and driving forces at the sectoral level. These indicators need to be supplemented with sector-specific information for a more complete understanding of future energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.

  10. Sector trends and driving forces of global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions: focus in industry and buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Price, Lynn; Worrell, Ernst; Khrushch, Marta

    1999-01-01

    Disaggregation of sectoral energy use and greenhouse gas emissions trends reveals striking differences between sectors and regions of the world. Understanding key driving forces in the energy end-use sectors provides insights for development of projections of future greenhouse gas emissions. This report examines global and regional historical trends in energy use and carbon emissions in the industrial, buildings, transport, and agriculture sectors, with a more detailed focus on industry and buildings. Activity and economic drivers as well as trends in energy and carbon intensity are evaluated. The authors show that macro-economic indicators, such as GDP, are insufficient for comprehending trends and driving forces at the sectoral level. These indicators need to be supplemented with sector-specific information for a more complete understanding of future energy use and greenhouse gas emissions

  11. Trend analysis from 1970 to 2008 and model evaluation of EDGARv4 global gridded anthropogenic mercury emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muntean, Marilena; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Song, Shaojie; Selin, Noelle E.; Olivier, Jos G.J.; Guizzardi, Diego; Maas, Rob; Dentener, Frank

    2014-01-01

    generally reproduce both spatial variations and long-term trends in total gaseous mercury concentrations and wet deposition fluxes. - Highlights: • A global mercury emission inventory over the past four decades was established. • The inventory was at the lower range of the UNEP Minamata estimates. • The inventory was evaluated using a global 3-D mercury model GEOS-Chem. • The model reproduced spatial variations and long-term trends

  12. Trend analysis from 1970 to 2008 and model evaluation of EDGARv4 global gridded anthropogenic mercury emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muntean, Marilena, E-mail: marilena.muntean@jrc.ec.europa.eu [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (Italy); Janssens-Maenhout, Greet [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (Italy); Song, Shaojie; Selin, Noelle E. [Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA (United States); Olivier, Jos G.J. [PBL Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Guizzardi, Diego [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (Italy); Maas, Rob [RIVM National Institute for Public Health and Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Dentener, Frank [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (Italy)

    2014-10-01

    model can generally reproduce both spatial variations and long-term trends in total gaseous mercury concentrations and wet deposition fluxes. - Highlights: • A global mercury emission inventory over the past four decades was established. • The inventory was at the lower range of the UNEP Minamata estimates. • The inventory was evaluated using a global 3-D mercury model GEOS-Chem. • The model reproduced spatial variations and long-term trends.

  13. Spatial and Temporal Trends in Global Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides from 1960 to 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Tianbo; Zhu, Xi; Zhong, Qirui; Yun, Xiao; Meng, Wenjun; Li, Bengang; Ma, Jianmin; Zeng, Eddy Y; Tao, Shu

    2017-07-18

    The quantification of nitrogen oxide (NO x ) emissions is critical for air quality modeling. Based on updated fuel consumption and emission factor databases, a global emission inventory was compiled with high spatial (0.1° × 0.1°), temporal (monthly), and source (87 sources) resolutions for the period 1960 to 2014. The monthly emission data have been uploaded online ( http://inventory.pku.edu.cn ), along with a number of other air pollutant and greenhouse gas data for free download. Differences in source profiles, not global total quantities, between our results and those reported previously were found. There were significant differences in total and per capita emissions and emission intensities among countries, especially between the developing and developed countries. Globally, the total annual NO x emissions finally stopped increasing in 2013 after continuously increasing over several decades, largely due to strict control measures taken in China in recent years. Nevertheless, the peak year of NO x emissions was later than for many other major air pollutants. Per capita emissions, either among countries or over years, follow typical inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets curves, indicating that the emissions increased during the early stage of development and were restrained when socioeconomic development reached certain points. Although the trends are similar among countries, the turning points of developing countries appeared sooner than those of developed countries in terms of development status, confirming late-move advantages.

  14. Global time trends in PAH emissions from motor vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Huizhong; Tao, Shu; Wang, Rong; Wang, Bin; Shen, Guofeng; Li, Wei; Su, Shenshen; Huang, Ye; Wang, Xilong; Liu, Wenxin; Li, Bengang; Sun, Kang

    2011-04-01

    Emission from motor vehicles is the most important source of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in urban areas. Emission factors of individual PAHs for motor vehicles reported in the literature varied 4 to 5 orders of magnitude, leading to high uncertainty in emission inventory. In this study, key factors affecting emission factors of PAHs (EF PAH) for motor vehicles were evaluated quantitatively based on thousands of EF PAH measured in 16 countries for over 50 years. The result was used to develop a global emission inventory of PAHs from motor vehicles. It was found that country and vehicle model year are the most important factors affecting EF PAH, which can be quantified using a monovariate regression model with per capita gross domestic production (purchasing power parity) as a sole independent variable. On average, 29% of variation in log-transformed EF PAH could be explained by the model, which was equivalent to 90% reduction in overall uncertainty on arithmetic scale. The model was used to predict EF PAH and subsequently PAH emissions from motor vehicles for various countries in the world during a period from 1971 to 2030. It was estimated that the global emission reached its peak value of approximate 101 Gg in 1978 and decreased afterwards due to emission control in developed countries. The annual emission picked up again since 1990 owing to accelerated energy consumption in China and other developing countries. With more and more rigid control measures taken in the developing world, global emission of PAHs is currently passing its second peak. It was predicted that the emission would decrease from 77 Gg in 2010 to 42 Gg in 2030.

  15. Global Energy Trends - 2016 report. Towards a Peak in Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-06-01

    Celebrating the 20. anniversary of this yearly publication, Enerdata has newly released its annual Global Energy Trends publication for 2016. The full report presents in-depth information on the energy markets as well as upcoming trends for all energies in the G20. With over 400 premium sources, Enerdata analysts highlight major developments in 2015 concerning global demand, supply and key indicators across the globe. The main trends outlined in the report are: - Economic slowdown: the lowest growth since 2002; - Almost no growth in energy consumption; - New decrease of energy intensity; - Stabilization of CO 2 -energy emissions; - INDC targets achievement requires a double breakthrough. The Global Energy Trends Analysis also provides additional graphs about trends by energy: - Coal: most consumed energy source in G20 countries; - Oil: fall in prices to around 40-50 US$/bbl; - Oil production: USA overtake Russia and catch up with Saudi Arabia; - Gas: Stabilisation of gas demand for the 2. consecutive year; - Electricity: Stagnation of electricity consumption; - Wind Power and Solar PV: Asia engine of development. Growth in energy consumption (%/year) for G20 countries: - Second consecutive year of decline: low growth and decrease in energy intensity; - India drives the energy consumption growth; - Near stagnation in China (after a first sharp slowdown in 2014); - Economic recession in Brazil and Russia; - USA: decrease primarily linked to the industrial sector (energy efficiency + less energy-intensive industry); - Rebound in Europe: economic growth + climate effect 2015/2014

  16. Building Trust in Emissions Reporting. Global Trends in Emissions Trading Schemes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kruijd, J.; Walrecht, A.; Laseur, J.; Schoolderman, H.; Gledhill, R.

    2007-02-15

    This report highlights the key characteristics of the world's main emission trading schemes, presents a new vision for compliance in emissions trading and calls for global action to develop this. Climate change is now at the top of the political and business agenda. Al Gore's 'An Inconvenient Truth', the Stern Review and the now almost daily press coverage of climate change science and impacts have engaged many of the global leaders in government and in business. Emissions trading is increasingly seen as a central plank in the response to climate change. But market mechanisms like this depend on trust and confidence. Any widespread or systemic failure, as a result of deficient monitoring and reporting, flawed compliance processes or fraud, could undermine confidence in markets and regulation and jeopardise the crucial policy goals that they are designed to address. Key to this trust are the three central criteria of transparency, accountability and integrity. The PricewaterhouseCoopers report looks at how the patchwork of trading schemes that are emerging around the globe stacks up against these criteria. Despite good intentions across the board, the general picture is one of new and immature markets, inconsistent and complex compliance frameworks and risk. PricewaterhouseCoopers make the case for urgent and coordinated action to develop a framework of generally accepted principles and practice that will underpin trust and efficiency in these new markets - in effect, a new Global Emissions Compliance Language.

  17. Building Trust in Emissions Reporting. Global Trends in Emissions Trading Schemes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kruijd, J.; Walrecht, A.; Laseur, J.; Schoolderman, H.; Gledhill, R.

    2007-02-01

    This report highlights the key characteristics of the world's main emission trading schemes, presents a new vision for compliance in emissions trading and calls for global action to develop this. Climate change is now at the top of the political and business agenda. Al Gore's 'An Inconvenient Truth', the Stern Review and the now almost daily press coverage of climate change science and impacts have engaged many of the global leaders in government and in business. Emissions trading is increasingly seen as a central plank in the response to climate change. But market mechanisms like this depend on trust and confidence. Any widespread or systemic failure, as a result of deficient monitoring and reporting, flawed compliance processes or fraud, could undermine confidence in markets and regulation and jeopardise the crucial policy goals that they are designed to address. Key to this trust are the three central criteria of transparency, accountability and integrity. The PricewaterhouseCoopers report looks at how the patchwork of trading schemes that are emerging around the globe stacks up against these criteria. Despite good intentions across the board, the general picture is one of new and immature markets, inconsistent and complex compliance frameworks and risk. PricewaterhouseCoopers make the case for urgent and coordinated action to develop a framework of generally accepted principles and practice that will underpin trust and efficiency in these new markets - in effect, a new Global Emissions Compliance Language

  18. Grazing the Commons. Global Carbon Emissions Forever?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melenberg, B. [CentER and Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands); Vollebergh, H.R.J. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Dijkgraaf, E. [SEOR-ECRi and Tinbergen Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    2011-02-15

    This paper presents the results from our investigation of the per-capita, long-term relation between carbon dioxide emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for the world, obtained with the use of a new, flexible estimator. Consistent with simple economic growth models, we find that regional, population-weighted per-capita emissions systematically increase with income (scale effect) and usually decline over time (composition and technology effect). Both our in-sample results and out-of-sample scenarios indicate that this negative time effect is unlikely to compensate for the upward-income effect at a global level, in the near future. In particular, even if China's specialization in carbon-intensive industrial sectors would come to a halt, recent trends outside China make a reversal of the overall global trend very unlikely.

  19. Forecasting of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion using trend analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koene, Aylin Cigdem; Bueke, Tayfun

    2010-01-01

    The accelerating use of fossil fuels since the Industrial Revolution and the rapid destruction of forests causes a significant increase in greenhouse gases. The increasing threat of global warming and climate change has been the major, worldwide, ongoing concern especially in the last two decades. The impacts of global warming on the world economy have been assessed intensively by researchers since the 1990s. Worldwide organizations have been attempting to reduce the adverse impacts of global warming through intergovernmental and binding agreements. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is one of the most foremost greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The energy sector is dominated by the direct combustion of fuels, a process leading to large emissions of CO 2 . CO 2 from energy represents about 60% of the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions of global emissions. This percentage varies greatly by country, due to diverse national energy structures. The top-25 emitting countries accounted 82.27% of the world CO 2 emissions in 2007. In the same year China was the largest emitter and generated 20.96% of the world total. Trend analysis is based on the idea that what has happened in the past gives traders an idea of what will happen in the future. In this study, trend analysis approach has been employed for modelling to forecast of energy-related CO 2 emissions. To this aim first, trends in CO 2 emissions for the top-25 countries and the world total CO 2 emissions during 1971-2007 are identified. On developing the regression analyses, the regression analyses with R 2 values less than 0.94 showing insignificant influence in statistical tests have been discarded. Statistically significant trends are indicated in eleven countries namely, India, South Korea, Islamic Republic of Iran, Mexico, Australia, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, South Africa, Taiwan, Turkey and the world total. The results obtained from the analyses showed that the models for those countries can be used for CO 2

  20. Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.

    2014-06-01

    In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable detail on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). With global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector in the range of 128-171 EJ across the four scenarios, global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of non-methane total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM) in the year 2030. At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two

  1. Methane emission from global livestock sector during 1890-2014: Magnitude, trends and spatiotemporal patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dangal, Shree R S; Tian, Hanqin; Zhang, Bowen; Pan, Shufen; Lu, Chaoqun; Yang, Jia

    2017-10-01

    Human demand for livestock products has increased rapidly during the past few decades largely due to dietary transition and population growth, with significant impact on climate and the environment. The contribution of ruminant livestock to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has been investigated extensively at various scales from regional to global, but the long-term trend, regional variation and drivers of methane (CH 4 ) emission remain unclear. In this study, we use Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier II guidelines to quantify the evolution of CH 4 emissions from ruminant livestock during 1890-2014. We estimate that total CH 4 emissions in 2014 was 97.1 million tonnes (MT) CH 4 or 2.72 Gigatonnes (Gt) CO 2 -eq (1 MT = 10 12 g, 1 Gt = 10 15 g) from ruminant livestock, which accounted for 47%-54% of all non-CO 2 GHG emissions from the agricultural sector. Our estimate shows that CH 4 emissions from the ruminant livestock had increased by 332% (73.6 MT CH 4 or 2.06 Gt CO 2 -eq) since the 1890s. Our results further indicate that livestock sector in drylands had 36% higher emission intensity (CH 4 emissions/km 2 ) compared to that in nondrylands in 2014, due to the combined effect of higher rate of increase in livestock population and low feed quality. We also find that the contribution of developing regions (Africa, Asia and Latin America) to the total CH 4 emissions had increased from 51.7% in the 1890s to 72.5% in the 2010s. These changes were driven by increases in livestock numbers (LU units) by up to 121% in developing regions, but decreases in livestock numbers and emission intensity (emission/km 2 ) by up to 47% and 32%, respectively, in developed regions. Our results indicate that future increases in livestock production would likely contribute to higher CH 4 emissions, unless effective strategies to mitigate GHG emissions in livestock system are implemented. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. TRENDS 1991: A compendium of data on global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boden, T.A.; Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W. (eds.)

    1991-12-01

    This document is a source of frequently used global-change data. This second issue of the Trends series expands the coverage of sites recording atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and methane (CH{sub 4}), and it updates records reported in the first issue. New data for other trace atmospheric gases have been included in this issue; historical data on nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}) from ice cores, modern records of atmospheric concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11 and CFC-12) and N{sub 2}O, and estimates of global estimates of CFC-11 and CFC-12. The estimates for global and national CO{sub 2} emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, the production of cement, and gas flaring have been revised and updated. Regional CO{sub 2} emission estimates have been added, and long-term temperature records have been updated and expanded. Data records are presented in four- to six-page formats, each dealing with a specific site, region, or emissions species. The data records include tables and graphs; discussion of methods for collecting, measuring, and reporting the data; trends in the data; and references to literature that provides further information. All data appearing in the document are available on digital media from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

  3. TRENDS 1991: A compendium of data on global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boden, T.A.; Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W.

    1991-12-01

    This document is a source of frequently used global-change data. This second issue of the Trends series expands the coverage of sites recording atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ), and it updates records reported in the first issue. New data for other trace atmospheric gases have been included in this issue; historical data on nitrous oxide (N 2 ) from ice cores, modern records of atmospheric concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11 and CFC-12) and N 2 O, and estimates of global estimates of CFC-11 and CFC-12. The estimates for global and national CO 2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, the production of cement, and gas flaring have been revised and updated. Regional CO 2 emission estimates have been added, and long-term temperature records have been updated and expanded. Data records are presented in four- to six-page formats, each dealing with a specific site, region, or emissions species. The data records include tables and graphs; discussion of methods for collecting, measuring, and reporting the data; trends in the data; and references to literature that provides further information. All data appearing in the document are available on digital media from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center

  4. Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from global agricultural production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bennetzen, Eskild Hohlmann; Smith, Pete; Porter, John Roy

    2016-01-01

    Since 1970 global agricultural production has more than doubled; contributing ~1/4 of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) burden in 2010. Food production must increase to feed our growing demands, but to address climate change, GHG emissions must decrease. Using an identity approach, we...... estimate and analyse past trends in GHG emission intensities from global agricultural production and land-use change and project potential future emissions. The novel Kaya-Porter identity framework deconstructs the entity of emissions from a mix of multiple sources of GHGs into attributable elements...... to increase food security whilst reducing emissions. The identity approach presented here could be used as a methodological framework for more holistic food systems analysis....

  5. Trends in onroad transportation energy and emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, H Christopher

    2018-06-01

    Globally, 1.3 billion on-road vehicles consume 79 quadrillion BTU of energy, mostly gasoline and diesel fuels, emit 5.7 gigatonnes of CO 2 , and emit other pollutants to which approximately 200,000 annual premature deaths are attributed. Improved vehicle energy efficiency and emission controls have helped offset growth in vehicle activity. New technologies are diffusing into the vehicle fleet in response to fuel efficiency and emission standards. Empirical assessment of vehicle emissions is challenging because of myriad fuels and technologies, intervehicle variability, multiple emission processes, variability in operating conditions, and varying capabilities of measurement methods. Fuel economy and emissions regulations have been effective in reducing total emissions of key pollutants. Real-world fuel use and emissions are consistent with official values in the United States but not in Europe or countries that adopt European standards. Portable emission measurements systems, which uncovered a recent emissions cheating scandal, have a key role in regulatory programs to ensure conformity between "real driving emissions" and emission standards. The global vehicle fleet will experience tremendous growth, especially in Asia. Although existing data and modeling tools are useful, they are often based on convenience samples, small sample sizes, large variability, and unquantified uncertainty. Vehicles emit precursors to several important secondary pollutants, including ozone and secondary organic aerosols, which requires a multipollutant emissions and air quality management strategy. Gasoline and diesel are likely to persist as key energy sources to mid-century. Adoption of electric vehicles is not a panacea with regard to greenhouse gas emissions unless coupled with policies to change the power generation mix. Depending on how they are actually implemented and used, autonomous vehicles could lead to very large reductions or increases in energy consumption. Numerous other

  6. Global emissions of terpenoid VOCs from terrestrial vegetation in the last millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acosta Navarro, J C; Smolander, S; Struthers, H; Zorita, E; Ekman, A M L; Kaplan, J O; Guenther, A; Arneth, A; Riipinen, I

    2014-01-01

    We investigated the millennial variability (1000 A.D.–2000 A.D.) of global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions by using two independent numerical models: The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), for isoprene, monoterpene, and sesquiterpene, and Lund-Potsdam-Jena-General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS), for isoprene and monoterpenes. We found the millennial trends of global isoprene emissions to be mostly affected by land cover and atmospheric carbon dioxide changes, whereas monoterpene and sesquiterpene emission trends were dominated by temperature change. Isoprene emissions declined substantially in regions with large and rapid land cover change. In addition, isoprene emission sensitivity to drought proved to have significant short-term global effects. By the end of the past millennium MEGAN isoprene emissions were 634 TgC yr−1 (13% and 19% less than during 1750–1850 and 1000–1200, respectively), and LPJ-GUESS emissions were 323 TgC yr−1(15% and 20% less than during 1750–1850 and 1000–1200, respectively). Monoterpene emissions were 89 TgC yr−1(10% and 6% higher than during 1750–1850 and 1000–1200, respectively) in MEGAN, and 24 TgC yr−1 (2% higher and 5% less than during 1750–1850 and 1000–1200, respectively) in LPJ-GUESS. MEGAN sesquiterpene emissions were 36 TgC yr−1(10% and 4% higher than during 1750–1850 and 1000–1200, respectively). Although both models capture similar emission trends, the magnitude of the emissions are different. This highlights the importance of building better constraints on VOC emissions from terrestrial vegetation. PMID:25866703

  7. Forecasting of CO{sub 2} emissions from fuel combustion using trend analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koene, Aylin Cigdem [Mugla University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, 48000 Mugla (Turkey); Bueke, Tayfun [Mugla University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Department of Physics, 48000 Mugla (Turkey)

    2010-12-15

    The accelerating use of fossil fuels since the Industrial Revolution and the rapid destruction of forests causes a significant increase in greenhouse gases. The increasing threat of global warming and climate change has been the major, worldwide, ongoing concern especially in the last two decades. The impacts of global warming on the world economy have been assessed intensively by researchers since the 1990s. Worldwide organizations have been attempting to reduce the adverse impacts of global warming through intergovernmental and binding agreements. Carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) is one of the most foremost greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The energy sector is dominated by the direct combustion of fuels, a process leading to large emissions of CO{sub 2}. CO{sub 2} from energy represents about 60% of the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions of global emissions. This percentage varies greatly by country, due to diverse national energy structures. The top-25 emitting countries accounted 82.27% of the world CO{sub 2} emissions in 2007. In the same year China was the largest emitter and generated 20.96% of the world total. Trend analysis is based on the idea that what has happened in the past gives traders an idea of what will happen in the future. In this study, trend analysis approach has been employed for modelling to forecast of energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions. To this aim first, trends in CO{sub 2} emissions for the top-25 countries and the world total CO{sub 2} emissions during 1971-2007 are identified. On developing the regression analyses, the regression analyses with R{sup 2} values less than 0.94 showing insignificant influence in statistical tests have been discarded. Statistically significant trends are indicated in eleven countries namely, India, South Korea, Islamic Republic of Iran, Mexico, Australia, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, South Africa, Taiwan, Turkey and the world total. The results obtained from the analyses showed that the models for

  8. Global Emissions of Terpenoid VOCs from Terrestrial Vegetation in the Last Millennium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acosta Navarro, J. C.; Smolander, S.; Struthers, H.; Zorita, E.; Ekman, A. M.; Kaplan, J. O.; Guenther, Alex B.; Arneth, A.; Riipinen, I.

    2014-06-16

    We investigated the millennial variability of global BVOC emissions by using two independent numerical models: The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), for isoprene, monoterpene and sesquiterpene and Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ8 GUESS), for isoprene and monoterpenes. We found the millennial trends of global isoprene emissions to be mostly affected by land cover and atmospheric carbon dioxide changes, whereas monoterpene and sesquiterpene emission were dominated by temperature change. Isoprene emissions declined substantially in regions with large and rapid land cover change. In addition, isoprene emission sensitivity to drought proved to have signicant short term global effects. By the end of the past millennium MEGAN isoprene emissions were 634 TgC yr-1 (13% and 19% less than during during 1750-1850 and 1000- 15 1200, respectively) and LPJ-GUESS emissions were 323 TgC yr-1 (15% and 20% less than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively). Monoterpene emissions were 89 TgC yr-1 (10% and 6% higher than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively) in MEGAN, and 24 TgC yr-1 (2% higher and 5% 19 20 less than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively) in LPJ-GUESS. MEGAN sesquiterpene emissions were 36 TgC yr-1 (10% and 4% higher than during1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively). Although both models capture similar We investigated the millennial variability of global BVOC emissions by using two independent numerical models: The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), for isoprene, monoterpene and sesquiterpene and Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ8GUESS), for isoprene and monoterpenes. We found the millennial trends ofglobal isoprene emissions to be mostly a*ected by land cover and atmospheric carbon dioxide changes, whereas monoterpene and sesquiterpene emission were dominated by temperature change. Isoprene emissions declined substantially in regions with large and rapid

  9. Global Energy Trends - 2016 edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-01-01

    Based on its 2015 data for G20 countries, Enerdata analyses the trends of the world energy markets. The full report presents in-depth information on the energy markets as well as upcoming trends for all energies in the G20. With over 400 premium sources, Enerdata analysts highlight major developments in 2015 concerning global demand, supply and key indicators across the globe. Key Points: 2.8%: The weakest economic growth since 2002: If the economic activity of OECD countries improved slightly (USA, EU...), that of non - OECD countries slowed down, particularly in China, and with some even declining (Brazil and Russia). +0.5%: Near stagnation of energy consumption: As with last year, 2015 saw weak growth in energy consumption for G20 countries (10.8 Gtoe, or +0.5%, while the 10-year average exceeds 2%). Within the OECD, consumption declined slightly. In non-OECD countries, the evolution becomes historic with an increase limited to 1.3%, compared to a 10-year average of 5%. Besides the direct impact of the economic downturn mentioned above, this result comes largely from China where the near stagnation of energy consumption confirms a trend beginning in 2014 towards a less energy-intensive economy. 0: Stability of CO_2 emissions - cyclical or structural?: After the surprising slowdown in 2014, 2015 also saw a stable level of CO_2 -energy emissions (27 GtCO_2). A direct result from the stagnation in energy consumption, this figure also results from a slight modification in the power mix, in particular from the decline in coal consumption (China, USA..). -3 %: Decrease in the carbon intensity of the economy: In 2015 we acknowledge a 3% decrease in carbon intensity compared to an historical average of -1.5%/year; this progress comes from a decrease in China (stability of energy consumption and decrease of coal share in the mix) and in the USA (more gas, less coal). A trend still far away from climate change targets set at the COP21: On the climate side, the stagnation

  10. 2014 Global Energy Trends: a year full of surprises. Based on its 2014 data for G20 countries, Enerdata analyses the trends in the world energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    According to the 2014 Global Energy Trends publication, Enerdata points out 2014 as a remarkable year with a near stagnation in energy demand and CO_2 emissions despite economic growth. The G20's 2014 Key Energy figures: +3.5% Economic Growth; +0.3% (10.8 Gtep) Energy consumption stagnation; -0.2% (26 GtCO_2) CO_2 emissions stabilizations. The main trends derived from the publication are: - Historical stagnation in energy consumption; - Stabilisation in CO_2 emissions; - Global energy consumption stabilisation is reflected everywhere: - 0 growth for gas, - Fall in coal consumption, - Slight increase in electricity consumption. The Global Energy Trends Analysis also provides additional graphs on such topics as: Coal: most consumed energy source in G20 countries; Oil: 50% fall in international prices; Oil: demand continues to slightly increase; Gas: high impact of climate on gas consumption. (authors)

  11. Trends '91: A compendium of data on global change---highlights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boden, T.A.; Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W.

    1992-03-01

    The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has been prompted to produce the series Trends, a concise inventory of data in response to heightened concern about global environmental issues, in particular climate changes induced by the greenhouse effect. This report contains extracts from Trends '91 to illustrate the content, style, and presentation of data contained in the full 700-page report. This report includes a listing of the investigators contributing data for Trends '91. In addition, it contains the abstract, foreword, and acknowledgments, as well as the introduction and a sample data record from each of the reports's five chapters. The chapters are ''Atmospheric CO 2 ,'' ''Atmospheric CH 4 ,'' ''Other Trace Gases,'' ''CO 2 Emissions,'' and ''Temperature.'' Appendix A provides information about CDIAC and its activities related to global environmental issues. Appendix B lists the contents of the full report. An order form for obtaining a free copy of Trends '91 is found in Appendix C

  12. Distinguishing the drivers of trends in land carbon fluxes and plant volatile emissions over the past 3 decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, X.; Unger, N.; Zheng, Y.

    2015-10-01

    The terrestrial biosphere has experienced dramatic changes in recent decades. Estimates of historical trends in land carbon fluxes remain uncertain because long-term observations are limited on the global scale. Here, we use the Yale Interactive terrestrial Biosphere (YIBs) model to estimate decadal trends in land carbon fluxes and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) and to identify the key drivers for these changes during 1982-2011. Driven by hourly meteorology from WFDEI (WATCH forcing data methodology applied to ERA-Interim data), the model simulates an increasing trend of 297 Tg C a-2 in gross primary productivity (GPP) and 185 Tg C a-2 in the net primary productivity (NPP). CO2 fertilization is the main driver for the flux changes in forest ecosystems, while meteorology dominates the changes in grasslands and shrublands. Warming boosts summer GPP and NPP at high latitudes, while drought dampens carbon uptake in tropical regions. North of 30° N, increasing temperatures induce a substantial extension of 0.22 day a-1 for the growing season; however, this phenological change alone does not promote regional carbon uptake and BVOC emissions. Nevertheless, increases of leaf area index at peak season accounts for ~ 25 % of the trends in GPP and isoprene emissions at the northern lands. The net land sink shows statistically insignificant increases of only 3 Tg C a-2 globally because of simultaneous increases in soil respiration. Global BVOC emissions are calculated using two schemes. With the photosynthesis-dependent scheme, the model predicts increases of 0.4 Tg C a-2 in isoprene emissions, which are mainly attributed to warming trends because CO2 fertilization and inhibition effects offset each other. Using the MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature) scheme, the YIBs model simulates global reductions of 1.1 Tg C a-2 in isoprene and 0.04 Tg C a-2 in monoterpene emissions in response to the CO2 inhibition effects. Land use

  13. Decadal changes in global surface NOx emissions from multi-constituent satellite data assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Miyazaki

    2017-01-01

    underestimation of soil NOx sources in the emission inventories. Despite the large trends observed for individual regions, the global total emission is almost constant between 2005 (47.9 Tg N yr−1 and 2014 (47.5 Tg N yr−1.

  14. CO_2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry: A scenario analysis using system dynamics model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Qiang; Zhang, Wenjuan; Li, Huiquan; He, Peng

    2017-01-01

    China announced its promise on CO_2 emission peak. When and what level of CO_2 emission peak China's primary aluminum industry will reach is in suspense. In this paper, a system dynamic model is established, with five subsystems of economy development, primary aluminum production, secondary aluminum production, CO_2 emission intensity and policies making involved. The model is applied to examine potential CO_2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry in next fifteen years with three scenarios of “no new policies”, “13th five-year plan” and “additional policies”. Simulation results imply that: merely relying on rapid expansion of domestic scarps recycling and reuse could not mitigate CO_2 emission continuously. Combination of energy-saving technology application and electrolytic technology innovation, as well as promoting hydropower utilization in primary aluminum industry are necessary for long term low-carbon development. From a global prospective, enhancing international cooperation on new primary aluminum capacity construction in other countries, especially with rich low-carbon energy, could bring about essential CO_2 emission for both China's and global primary aluminum industry. - Highlights: • A system dynamic model is established for future CO_2 emission trend of China's primary aluminum industry. • Three potential policy scenarios are simulated. • The impacts of potential policies implication on the CO_2 emission trend are discussed.

  15. Current and future trends in global landfill gas generation and emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meadows, M.; Franklin, C.; Campbell, D.

    1996-01-01

    This paper assesses the magnitude and distribution of current and future methane generation and emissions from landfill on a world-wide basis. It also estimates the current and future global potential for energy recovery from landfill methane. The mass of methane emitted from land disposal of wastes in any country depends on the waste management strategy of that country. In turn, the waste management strategy of a country depends on its population size, relative proportion living in rural or urban regions and the economic development of the country. We estimate by 2010 there will be a large increase in global methane emissions from solid wastes disposed on land. This increase will be largely from developing regions of the world. The main factor driving this increase is a population shift from rural to urban areas, particularly in regions of highest population, i.e. China and India. This will lead to a greater concentration of waste generation, in turn leading to increased disposal of wastes in deeper sites. In addition increased industrialisation and improved standard of living in regions of high population, will increase the mass of waste disposed of per person and the degradable carbon content of the waste, i.e. the waste will become more like waste from developed countries. In contrast, methane emissions from waste disposed on land in developed countries is likely to decrease by 2010, mainly as result of increased collection and combustion of landfill methane. (Author)

  16. Distinguishing the drivers of trends in land carbon fluxes and plant volatile emissions over the past three decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, X.; Unger, N.; Zheng, Y.

    2015-08-01

    The terrestrial biosphere has experienced dramatic changes in recent decades. Estimates of historical trends in land carbon fluxes remain uncertain because long-term observations are limited on the global scale. Here, we use the Yale Interactive terrestrial Biosphere (YIBs) model to estimate decadal trends in land carbon fluxes and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) and to identify the key drivers for these changes during 1982-2011. Driven with hourly meteorology from WFDEI (WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim data), the model simulates an increasing trend of 297 Tg C a-2 in gross primary productivity (GPP) and 185 Tg C a-2 in the net primary productivity (NPP). CO2 fertilization is the main driver for the flux changes in forest ecosystems, while meteorology dominates the changes in grasslands and shrublands. Warming boosts summer GPP and NPP at high latitudes, while drought dampens carbon uptake in tropical regions. North of 30° N, increasing temperatures induce a substantial extension of 0.22 day a-1 for the growing season; however, this phenological change alone does not promote regional carbon uptake and BVOC emissions. Nevertheless, increases of LAI at peak season accounts for ~ 25 % of the trends in GPP and isoprene emissions at the northern lands. The net land sink shows statistically insignificant increases of only 3 Tg C a-2 globally because of simultaneous increases in soil respiration. In contrast, driven with alternative meteorology from MERRA (Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis), the model predicts significant increases of 59 Tg C a-2 in the land sink due to strengthened uptake in the Amazon. Global BVOC emissions are calculated using two schemes. With the photosynthesis-dependent scheme, the model predicts increases of 0.4 Tg C a-2 in isoprene emissions, which are mainly attributed to warming trends because CO2 fertilization and inhibition effects offset each other. Using the MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases

  17. Reducing global NOx emissions: developing advanced energy and transportation technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Michael J; Jones, Brian M

    2002-03-01

    Globally, energy demand is projected to continue to increase well into the future. As a result, global NOx emissions are projected to continue on an upward trend for the foreseeable future as developing countries increase their standards of living. While the US has experienced improvements in reducing NOx emissions from stationary and mobile sources to reduce ozone, further progress is needed to reduce the health and ecosystem impacts associated with NOx emissions. In other parts of the world, (in developing countries in particular) NOx emissions have been increasing steadily with the growth in demand for electricity and transportation. Advancements in energy and transportation technologies may help avoid this increase in emissions if appropriate policies are implemented. This paper evaluates commercially available power generation and transportation technologies that produce fewer NOx emissions than conventional technologies, and advanced technologies that are on the 10-year commercialization horizon. Various policy approaches will be evaluated which can be implemented on the regional, national and international levels to promote these advanced technologies and ultimately reduce NOx emissions. The concept of the technology leap is offered as a possibility for the developing world to avoid the projected increases in NOx emissions.

  18. Global EDGAR v4.1 emissions of air pollutants: analysis of impacts of emissions abatement in industry and road transport on regional and global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Olivier, J. G.; Doering, U. M.; van Aardenne, J.; Monni, S.; Pagliari, V.; Peters, J. A.

    2010-12-01

    The new version v4.1 of the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) compiled by JRC and PBL provides independent estimates of the global anthropogenic emissions and emission trends of precursors of tropospheric ozone (CO, NMVOC, NOx) and acidifying substances (NOx, NH3, SO2) for the period 1970-2005. All emissions are detailed at country level consistently using the same technology-based methodology, combining activity data (international statistics) from publicly available sources and to the extent possible emission factors as recommended by the EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook. By using high resolution global grid maps per source category of area sources and point sources, we also compiled datasets with annual emissions on a 0.1x0.1 degree grid, as input for atmospheric models. We provide full and up-to-date inventories per country, also for developing countries. Moreover, the time series back in time to 1970 provides for the trends in official national inventories a historic perspective. As part of our objective to contribute to more reliable inventories by providing a reference emissions database for emission scenarios, inventory comparisons and for atmospheric modellers, we strive to transparently document all data sources used and assumptions made where data was missing, in particular for assumptions made on the shares of technologies where relevant. Technology mixes per country or region were taken from other data sources (such as the Platts database) or estimated using other sources or countries as proxy. The evolution in the adoption of technologies world-wide over the 35 years covered by EDGAR v4.1 will be illustrated for the power industry and the road transport sectors, in particular for Europe and the US. Similarly the regional and global impacts of implemented control measures and end-of pipe abatements will be illustrated by the examples of - NOx and SO2 end-of pipe abatements being implemented since the late

  19. Global anthropogenic emissions of particulate matter including black carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimont, Zbigniew; Kupiainen, Kaarle; Heyes, Chris; Purohit, Pallav; Cofala, Janusz; Rafaj, Peter; Borken-Kleefeld, Jens; Schöpp, Wolfgang

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of historical (1990-2010) global anthropogenic particulate matter (PM) emissions including the consistent and harmonized calculation of mass-based size distribution (PM1, PM2. 5, PM10), as well as primary carbonaceous aerosols including black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). The estimates were developed with the integrated assessment model GAINS, where source- and region-specific technology characteristics are explicitly included. This assessment includes a number of previously unaccounted or often misallocated emission sources, i.e. kerosene lamps, gas flaring, diesel generators, refuse burning; some of them were reported in the past for selected regions or in the context of a particular pollutant or sector but not included as part of a total estimate. Spatially, emissions were calculated for 172 source regions (as well as international shipping), presented for 25 global regions, and allocated to 0.5° × 0.5° longitude-latitude grids. No independent estimates of emissions from forest fires and savannah burning are provided and neither windblown dust nor unpaved roads emissions are included. We estimate that global emissions of PM have not changed significantly between 1990 and 2010, showing a strong decoupling from the global increase in energy consumption and, consequently, CO2 emissions, but there are significantly different regional trends, with a particularly strong increase in East Asia and Africa and a strong decline in Europe, North America, and the Pacific region. This in turn resulted in important changes in the spatial pattern of PM burden, e.g. European, North American, and Pacific contributions to global emissions dropped from nearly 30 % in 1990 to well below 15 % in 2010, while Asia's contribution grew from just over 50 % to nearly two-thirds of the global total in 2010. For all PM species considered, Asian sources represented over 60 % of the global anthropogenic total, and residential combustion

  20. Global anthropogenic emissions of particulate matter including black carbon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Klimont

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of historical (1990–2010 global anthropogenic particulate matter (PM emissions including the consistent and harmonized calculation of mass-based size distribution (PM1, PM2. 5, PM10, as well as primary carbonaceous aerosols including black carbon (BC and organic carbon (OC. The estimates were developed with the integrated assessment model GAINS, where source- and region-specific technology characteristics are explicitly included. This assessment includes a number of previously unaccounted or often misallocated emission sources, i.e. kerosene lamps, gas flaring, diesel generators, refuse burning; some of them were reported in the past for selected regions or in the context of a particular pollutant or sector but not included as part of a total estimate. Spatially, emissions were calculated for 172 source regions (as well as international shipping, presented for 25 global regions, and allocated to 0.5°  ×  0.5° longitude–latitude grids. No independent estimates of emissions from forest fires and savannah burning are provided and neither windblown dust nor unpaved roads emissions are included. We estimate that global emissions of PM have not changed significantly between 1990 and 2010, showing a strong decoupling from the global increase in energy consumption and, consequently, CO2 emissions, but there are significantly different regional trends, with a particularly strong increase in East Asia and Africa and a strong decline in Europe, North America, and the Pacific region. This in turn resulted in important changes in the spatial pattern of PM burden, e.g. European, North American, and Pacific contributions to global emissions dropped from nearly 30 % in 1990 to well below 15 % in 2010, while Asia's contribution grew from just over 50 % to nearly two-thirds of the global total in 2010. For all PM species considered, Asian sources represented over 60 % of the global

  1. Constraining global methane emissions and uptake by ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spahni, R.; Wania, R.; Neef, L.; Van Weele, M.; Van Velthoven, P.; Pison, I.; Bousquet, P.

    2011-01-01

    Natural methane (CH 4 ) emissions from wet ecosystems are an important part of today's global CH 4 budget. Climate affects the exchange of CH 4 between ecosystems and the atmosphere by influencing CH 4 production, oxidation, and transport in the soil. The net CH 4 exchange depends on ecosystem hydrology, soil and vegetation characteristics. Here, the LPJ-WHyMe global dynamical vegetation model is used to simulate global net CH 4 emissions for different ecosystems: northern peat-lands (45 degrees-90 degrees N), naturally inundated wetlands (60 degrees S-45 degrees N), rice agriculture and wet mineral soils. Mineral soils are a potential CH 4 sink, but can also be a source with the direction of the net exchange depending on soil moisture content. The geographical and seasonal distributions are evaluated against multi-dimensional atmospheric inversions for 2003-2005, using two independent four-dimensional variational assimilation systems. The atmospheric inversions are constrained by the atmospheric CH 4 observations of the SCIAMACHY satellite instrument and global surface networks. Compared to LPJ-WHyMe the inversions result in a significant reduction in the emissions from northern peat-lands and suggest that LPJ-WHyMe maximum annual emissions peak about one month late. The inversions do not put strong constraints on the division of sources between inundated wetlands and wet mineral soils in the tropics. Based on the inversion results we diagnose model parameters in LPJ-WHyMe and simulate the surface exchange of CH 4 over the period 1990-2008. Over the whole period we infer an increase of global ecosystem CH 4 emissions of +1.11 TgCH 4 yr -1 , not considering potential additional changes in wetland extent. The increase in simulated CH 4 emissions is attributed to enhanced soil respiration resulting from the observed rise in land temperature and in atmospheric carbon dioxide that were used as input. The long term decline of the atmospheric CH 4 growth rate from 1990

  2. Vehicle emissions of short-lived and long-lived climate forcers: trends and tradeoffs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Morgan R; Klemun, Magdalena M; Kim, Hyung Chul; Wallington, Timothy J; Winkler, Sandra L; Tamor, Michael A; Trancik, Jessika E

    2017-08-24

    Evaluating technology options to mitigate the climate impacts of road transportation can be challenging, particularly when they involve a tradeoff between long-lived emissions (e.g., carbon dioxide) and short-lived emissions (e.g., methane or black carbon). Here we present trends in short- and long-lived emissions for light- and heavy-duty transport globally and in the U.S., EU, and China over the period 2000-2030, and we discuss past and future changes to vehicle technologies to reduce these emissions. We model the tradeoffs between short- and long-lived emission reductions across a range of technology options, life cycle emission intensities, and equivalency metrics. While short-lived vehicle emissions have decreased globally over the past two decades, significant reductions in CO 2 will be required by mid-century to meet climate change mitigation targets. This is true regardless of the time horizon used to compare long- and short-lived emissions. The short-lived emission intensities of some low-CO 2 technologies are higher than others, and thus their suitability for meeting climate targets depends sensitively on the evaluation time horizon. Other technologies offer low intensities of both short-lived emissions and CO 2 .

  3. Understanding NOx emission trends in China based on OMI observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Ga, D.; Smeltzer, C. D.; Yi, R.; Liu, Z.

    2012-12-01

    We analyze OMI observations of NO2 columns over China from 2005 to 2010. Simulations using a regional 3-D chemical transport model (REAM) are used to derive the top-down anthropogenic NOx emissions. The Kendall method is then applied to derive the emission trend. The emission trend is affected by the economic slowdown in 2009. After removing the effect of one year abnormal data, the overall emission trend is 4.35±1.42% per year, which is slower than the linear-regression trend of 5.8-10.8% per year reported for previous years. We find large regional, seasonal, and urban-rural variations in emission trend. The annual emission trends of Northeast China, Central China Plain, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are 44.98±1.39%, 5.24±1.63%, 3.31±1.02% and -4.02±1.87%, respectively. The annual emission trends of four megacities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are 0.7±0.27%, -0.75±0.31%, -4.08±1.21% and -6.22±2.85%,, considerably lower than the regional averages. These results appear to suggest that a number of factors, including migration of high-emission industries, vehicle emission regulations, emission control measures of thermal power plants, increased hydro-power usage, have reduced or reversed the increasing trend of NOx emissions in more economically developed megacities and southern coastal regions.

  4. Sources and trends of environmental mercury emissions in Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Coby S C; Duzgoren-Aydin, Nurdan S; Aydin, Adnan; Wong, Ming H

    2006-09-15

    This paper focuses on environmental mercury emissions in Asia and elaborates its probable trend in the future and associated implications given the anticipated socioeconomic outlook and other macro-environmental factors. Among the various regions, Asia has become the largest contributor of anthropogenic atmospheric Hg, responsible for over half of the global emission. In the next few decades, a significant increase in anthropogenic Hg emissions in Asia is likely owing to rapid economic and industrial development, unless drastic measures are taken. In particular, the dominance of Asia in some Hg-emitting industries, such as coal combustion, steel production and gold mining, provokes a serious environmental concern over their potential contributions of incidental Hg in the region. Moreover, the increasing prevalence of electrical and electronic manufacturing industry as a user and a contributor of Hg in Asia is also worrying. Specifically, disposal of obsolete electrical and electronic wastes represents a phenomenon increasingly encountered in Asia. In addition to escalating anthropogenic Hg emissions in Asia, associated environmental and health implications may also exacerbate in the region for the probable effects of a unique combination of climatic (e.g. subtropical climate), environmental (e.g. acid rain) and socioeconomic factors (e.g. high population density). Hence, much effort is still needed to understand the role of Asia in global Hg cycle and associated environmental and health effects in the region.

  5. Sources and trends of environmental mercury emissions in Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, Coby S.C.; Duzgoren-Aydin, Nurdan S.; Aydin, Adnan; Wong, Ming H.

    2006-01-01

    This paper focuses on environmental mercury emissions in Asia and elaborates its probable trend in the future and associated implications given the anticipated socioeconomic outlook and other macro-environmental factors. Among the various regions, Asia has become the largest contributor of anthropogenic atmospheric Hg, responsible for over half of the global emission. In the next few decades, a significant increase in anthropogenic Hg emissions in Asia is likely owing to rapid economic and industrial development, unless drastic measures are taken. In particular, the dominance of Asia in some Hg-emitting industries, such as coal combustion, steel production and gold mining, provokes a serious environmental concern over their potential contributions of incidental Hg in the region. Moreover, the increasing prevalence of electrical and electronic manufacturing industry as a user and a contributor of Hg in Asia is also worrying. Specifically, disposal of obsolete electrical and electronic wastes represents a phenomenon increasingly encountered in Asia. In addition to escalating anthropogenic Hg emissions in Asia, associated environmental and health implications may also exacerbate in the region for the probable effects of a unique combination of climatic (e.g. subtropical climate), environmental (e.g. acid rain) and socioeconomic factors (e.g. high population density). Hence, much effort is still needed to understand the role of Asia in global Hg cycle and associated environmental and health effects in the region

  6. TRENDS '90: A compendium of data on global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W. (eds.); Boden, T.A.; Kanciruk, P.; Farrell, M.P.

    1990-08-01

    This document is a source of frequently used global change data. This first issue includes estimates for global and national CO{sub 2} emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and from the production of cement, historical and modern records of atmospheric CO{sub 2} and methane concentrations, and several long-term temperature records. Included are tabular and graphical presentations of the data, discussions of trends in the data, and references to publications that provide further information. Data are presented in a two-page format, each dealing with a different data set. All data are available in digital form from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

  7. Assessing historical global sulfur emission patterns for the period 1850--1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lefohn, A.S. [A.S.L. and Associates, Helena, MT (United States); Husar, J.D.; Husar, R.B. [Washington Univ., St. Louis, MO (United States). Center for Air Pollution Impact and Trend Analysis; Brimblecombe, P. [Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom)

    1996-07-19

    Anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions from energy-producing and metal production activities have become an important factor in better understanding the relationship between humans and the environment. Concerns about (1) acid rain effects on the environment and (2) anthropogenic aerosols affecting possible global change have prompted interest in the transformation and fate of sulfur in the environment. One step in assessing the importance of sulfur emissions is the development of a reliable regional emission inventory of sulfur as a function of time. The objective of this research effort was to create a homogeneous database for historical sulfur emission estimates for the world. The time from 1850--1990 was selected to include the period of industrialization form the time the main production of fuels and minerals began until the most recent year for which complete production data exist. This research effort attempts to correct some of the deficiencies associated with previous global sulfur emission estimates by (1) identifying those production activities that resulted in sulfur emissions by country and (2) calculating historical emission trends by country across years. An important component of this study was the comparison of the sulfur emission results with those of previous studies.

  8. Greenhouse gas emissions increase global warming

    OpenAIRE

    Mohajan, Haradhan

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses the greenhouse gas emissions which cause the global warming in the atmosphere. In the 20th century global climate change becomes more sever which is due to greenhouse gas emissions. According to International Energy Agency data, the USA and China are approximately tied and leading global emitters of greenhouse gas emissions. Together they emit approximately 40% of global CO2 emissions, and about 35% of total greenhouse gases. The developed and developing industrialized co...

  9. Global organic carbon emissions from primary sources from 1960 to 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ye; Shen, Huizhong; Chen, Yilin; Zhong, Qirui; Chen, Han; Wang, Rong; Shen, Guofeng; Liu, Junfeng; Li, Bengang; Tao, Shu

    2015-12-01

    In an attempt to reduce uncertainty, global organic carbon (OC) emissions from a total of 70 sources were compiled at 0.1° × 0.1° resolution for 2007 (PKU-OC-2007) and country scale from 1960 to 2009. The compilation took advantage of a new fuel-consumption data product (PKU-Fuel-2007) and a series of newly published emission factors (EFOC) in developing countries. The estimated OC emissions were 32.9 Tg (24.1-50.6 Tg as interquartile range), of which less than one third was anthropogenic in origin. Uncertainty resulted primarily from variations in EFOC. Asia, Africa, and South America had high emissions mainly because of residential biomass fuel burning or wildfires. Per-person OC emission in rural areas was three times that of urban areas because of the relatively high EFOC of residential solid fuels. Temporal trend of anthropogenic OC emissions depended on rural population, and was influenced primarily by residential crop residue and agricultural waste burning. Both the OC/PM2.5 ratio and emission intensity, defined as quantity of OC emissions per unit of fuel consumption for all sources, of anthropogenic OC followed a decreasing trend, indicating continuous improvement in combustion efficiency and control measures.

  10. Observed decrease in atmospheric mercury explained by global decline in anthropogenic emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanxu Zhang,; Daniel J. Jacob,; Hannah M. Horowitz,; Long Chen,; Helen M. Amos,; Krabbenhoft, David P.; Franz Slemr,; Vincent L. St. Louis,; Elsie M. Sunderland,

    2015-01-01

    Observations of elemental mercury (Hg0) at sites in North America and Europe show large decreases (∼1–2% y−1) from 1990 to present. Observations in background northern hemisphere air, including Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) aircraft flights, show weaker decreases (inventories indicating flat or increasing emissions over that period. However, the inventories have three major flaws: (i) they do not account for the decline in atmospheric release of Hg from commercial products; (ii) they are biased in their estimate of artisanal and small-scale gold mining emissions; and (iii) they do not properly account for the change in Hg0/HgII speciation of emissions from coal-fired utilities after implementation of emission controls targeted at SO2 and NOx. We construct an improved global emission inventory for the period 1990 to 2010 accounting for the above factors and find a 20% decrease in total Hg emissions and a 30% decrease in anthropogenic Hg0 emissions, with much larger decreases in North America and Europe offsetting the effect of increasing emissions in Asia. Implementation of our inventory in a global 3D atmospheric Hg simulation [GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry)] coupled to land and ocean reservoirs reproduces the observed large-scale trends in atmospheric Hg0 concentrations and in HgII wet deposition. The large trends observed in North America and Europe reflect the phase-out of Hg from commercial products as well as the cobenefit from SO2 and NOx emission controls on coal-fired utilities.

  11. Alberta air emissions : trends and projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-06-01

    This paper provided a summary of air emissions trends and projections for Alberta. Predicted regional distribution trends and industry sector emissions were presented. Historical and projected emissions included sulfur oxides (SO x ) nitrogen oxide (NO x ), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and ammonia (NH 3 ). Results of the study indicated that carbon monoxide (CO) emissions were decreasing, while VOCs, NO x , SO x , PM 2.5 and NH 3 levels were increasing. Approximately 9 per cent of ammonia emissions were from point sources, while the majority of PM 2.5 emissions were attributed to unpaved roads and construction operations. Agricultural animal operations accounted for most of the VOC source emissions in the region. Increased development of the oil sands industry is contributing to increases in VOC emissions. Increases in NH 3 were attributed to growth in the agricultural sector and the increasing use of confined feeding operations in the region. Results of the study indicated that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Alberta will keep increasing as a result of Alberta's growing economy. It was concluded that emissions from other industrial sectors are also expected to increase. In 2005, Alberta's total GHG emissions were 233 megatonnes of CO 2 equivalent, of which 168 megatonnes were attributed to industry. Results were presented in both graph and tabular formats. 3 tabs., 25 figs

  12. Upward revision of global fossil fuel methane emissions based on isotope database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwietzke, Stefan; Sherwood, Owen A; Bruhwiler, Lori M P; Miller, John B; Etiope, Giuseppe; Dlugokencky, Edward J; Michel, Sylvia Englund; Arling, Victoria A; Vaughn, Bruce H; White, James W C; Tans, Pieter P

    2016-10-06

    Methane has the second-largest global radiative forcing impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gases after carbon dioxide, but our understanding of the global atmospheric methane budget is incomplete. The global fossil fuel industry (production and usage of natural gas, oil and coal) is thought to contribute 15 to 22 per cent of methane emissions to the total atmospheric methane budget. However, questions remain regarding methane emission trends as a result of fossil fuel industrial activity and the contribution to total methane emissions of sources from the fossil fuel industry and from natural geological seepage, which are often co-located. Here we re-evaluate the global methane budget and the contribution of the fossil fuel industry to methane emissions based on long-term global methane and methane carbon isotope records. We compile the largest isotopic methane source signature database so far, including fossil fuel, microbial and biomass-burning methane emission sources. We find that total fossil fuel methane emissions (fossil fuel industry plus natural geological seepage) are not increasing over time, but are 60 to 110 per cent greater than current estimates owing to large revisions in isotope source signatures. We show that this is consistent with the observed global latitudinal methane gradient. After accounting for natural geological methane seepage, we find that methane emissions from natural gas, oil and coal production and their usage are 20 to 60 per cent greater than inventories. Our findings imply a greater potential for the fossil fuel industry to mitigate anthropogenic climate forcing, but we also find that methane emissions from natural gas as a fraction of production have declined from approximately 8 per cent to approximately 2 per cent over the past three decades.

  13. Global and regional emission estimates for HCFC-22

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Saikawa

    2012-11-01

    that the global HCFC-22 emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2009. We further find a surge in HCFC-22 emissions between 2005 and 2009 from developing countries in Asia – the largest emitting region including China and India. Globally, substantial emissions continue despite production and consumption being phased out in developed countries currently.

  14. Global interpersonal inequality: Trends and measurement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niño-Zarazúa, Miguel; Roope, Laurence; Tarp, Finn

    This paper discusses different approaches to the measurement of global interpersonal in equality. Trends in global interpersonal inequality during 1975-2005 are measured using data from UNU-WIDER’s World Income Inequality Database. In order to better understand the trends, global interpersonal...... inequality is decomposed into within-country and between-country inequality. The paper illustrates that the relationship between global interpersonal inequality and these constituent components is a complex one. In particular, we demonstrate that the changes in China’s and India’s income distributions over...... the past 30 years have simultaneously caused inequality to rise domestically in those countries, while tending to reduce global inter-personal inequality. In light of these findings, we reflect on the meaning and policy relevance of global vis-à-vis domestic inequality measures...

  15. Global gridded anthropogenic emissions inventory of carbonyl sulfide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zumkehr, Andrew; Hilton, Tim W.; Whelan, Mary; Smith, Steve; Kuai, Le; Worden, John; Campbell, J. Elliott

    2018-06-01

    Atmospheric carbonyl sulfide (COS or OCS) is the most abundant sulfur containing gas in the troposphere and is an atmospheric tracer for the carbon cycle. Gridded inventories of global anthropogenic COS are used for interpreting global COS measurements. However, previous gridded anthropogenic data are a climatological estimate based on input data that is over three decades old and are not representative of current conditions. Here we develop a new gridded data set of global anthropogenic COS sources that includes more source sectors than previously available and uses the most current emissions factors and industry activity data as input. Additionally, the inventory is provided as annually varying estimates from years 1980-2012 and employs a source specific spatial scaling procedure. We estimate a global source in year 2012 of 406 Gg S y-1 (range of 223-586 Gg S y-1), which is highly concentrated in China and is twice as large as the previous gridded inventory. Our large upward revision in the bottom-up estimate of the source is consistent with a recent top-down estimate based on air-monitoring and Antarctic firn data. Furthermore, our inventory time trends, including a decline in the 1990's and growth after the year 2000, are qualitatively consistent with trends in atmospheric data. Finally, similarities between the spatial distribution in this inventory and remote sensing data suggest that the anthropogenic source could potentially play a role in explaining a missing source in the global COS budget.

  16. Feasibility of including fugitive PM-10 emissions estimates in the EPA emissions trends report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnard, W.; Carlson, P.

    1990-09-01

    The report describes the results of Part 2 of a two part study. Part 2 was to evaluate the feasibility of developing regional emission trends for PM-10. Part 1 was to evaluate the feasibility of developing VOC emission trends, on a regional and temporal basis. These studies are part of the effort underway to improve the national emission trends. Part 1 is presented in a separate report. The categories evaluated for the feasibility of developing regional emissions estimates were: unpaved roads, paved roads, wind erosion, agricultural tilling, construction activities, feedlots, burning, landfills, mining and quarrying unpaved parking lots, unpaved airstrips and storage piles

  17. Global and regional drivers of land-use emissions 1961-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, S. J.; Burney, J. A.; Pongratz, J.; Hansis, E.

    2017-12-01

    Historically, human land use, including conversion of natural landscapes, has disrupted ecosystems worldwide, degraded global biodiversity, and added tremendous quantities of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere1-5. Yet, in contrast to fossil fuel emissions, trends and drivers of land use and related GHG emissions are usually assessed only for specific regions, processes, or products. Here, we present a comprehensive, country-level inventory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land use and land-use change from 1961-2013, decompose the demographic, economic and technical drivers of these emissions, and assess the sensitivity of results to different units of measurement and accounting assumptions. Globally, annual land use emissions (CO2-eq) have decreased between 1961 and 2013 (-32% in our central case), reflecting a balance between steady increases in agricultural production per capita (+42%) and equally persistent declines in the land required per unit of agricultural production (-65%), and emissions per area of land used (-41%). A few regions, processes, and products account for the majority of land use emissions: Latin America, Southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa represent 55% of net cumulative emissions 1961-2013, conversion to cropland and pasture and enteric fermentation represent 103%, and cereal, dairy and beef products together represent 83%. Our results suggest that the emissions intensity of agricultural production is a particularly important indicator of agriculture's climate impact, where targeted reductions could substantially reduce that impact.

  18. Global isoprene and monoterpene emissions under changing climate, vegetation, CO2 and land use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hantson, Stijn; Knorr, Wolfgang; Schurgers, Guy

    2017-01-01

    Plants emit large quantities of isoprene and monoterpenes, the main components of global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. BVOCs have an important impact on the atmospheric composition of methane, and of short-lived radiative forcing agents (e.g. ozone, aerosols etc.). It is th......Plants emit large quantities of isoprene and monoterpenes, the main components of global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. BVOCs have an important impact on the atmospheric composition of methane, and of short-lived radiative forcing agents (e.g. ozone, aerosols etc.......). It is therefore necessary to know how isoprene and monoterpene emissions have changed over the past and how future changes in climate, land-use and other factors will impact them. Here we present emission estimates of isoprene and monoterpenes over the period 1901–2 100 based on the dynamic global vegetation...... model LPJ-GUESS, including the effects of all known important drivers. We find that both isoprene and monoterpene emissions at the beginning of the 20th century were higher than at present. While anthropogenic land-use change largely drives the global decreasing trend for isoprene over the 20th century...

  19. Global CO2 emissions from cement production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, Robbie M.

    2018-01-01

    The global production of cement has grown very rapidly in recent years, and after fossil fuels and land-use change, it is the third-largest source of anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide. The required data for estimating emissions from global cement production are poor, and it has been recognised that some global estimates are significantly inflated. Here we assemble a large variety of available datasets and prioritise official data and emission factors, including estimates submitted to the UNFCCC plus new estimates for China and India, to present a new analysis of global process emissions from cement production. We show that global process emissions in 2016 were 1.45±0.20 Gt CO2, equivalent to about 4 % of emissions from fossil fuels. Cumulative emissions from 1928 to 2016 were 39.3±2.4 Gt CO2, 66 % of which have occurred since 1990. Emissions in 2015 were 30 % lower than those recently reported by the Global Carbon Project. The data associated with this article can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.831455.

  20. International marine and aviation bunker fuel. Trends, ranking of countries and comparison with national CO2 emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olivier, J.G.J.; Peters, J.A.H.W.

    1999-01-01

    This report summarises and characterises fuel consumption and associated CO2 emissions from international transport based on energy statistics compiled by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Shares in 1990 and 1970-1995 trends in national and global bunker fuel consumption and associated CO2 emissions are analysed for marine and air transport. Also, the global total of international transport emissions are compared with national emissions and domestic transport emissions. During the last 25 years the average global annual increase was for marine bunkers about 0.8% and for aviation emissions about 3.3%. Annual variations per country of marine bunker fuel use larger than of aviation fuel use, sometimes more than 50%. However, the distinction between fuel use for domestic and for international aviation is more difficult to monitor. The dominant fuel in marine bunker fuel consumption is residual fuel oil ('heavy fuel oil'). The share of diesel oil has slowly increased from 11% in 1970 to 20% in 1990. Aviation fuels sold are predominantly jet fuel ('jet kerosene'). The small share of aviation gasoline is slowly decreasing: from about 4% in 1970 to 1.3% in 1990. Carbon dioxide emissions from combustion of international marine bunker fuels and aviation contributed in 1990 globally about 1.8% and 2.4% expressed as percentage of global total anthropogenic emissions (excluding deforestation). However, aviation emissions include an unknown part of domestic aviation. When comparing with total transport emissions, then international transport has a share of 20%. For both marine and aviation bunker fuel, the Top-10 of largest consuming countries account for about 2/3 of the global total; the Top-25 countries cover already 85% or more of global total CO2 emissions

  1. A decade of global volcanic SO2 emissions measured from space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carn, S. A.; Fioletov, V. E.; McLinden, C. A.; Li, C.; Krotkov, N. A.

    2017-03-01

    The global flux of sulfur dioxide (SO2) emitted by passive volcanic degassing is a key parameter that constrains the fluxes of other volcanic gases (including carbon dioxide, CO2) and toxic trace metals (e.g., mercury). It is also a required input for atmospheric chemistry and climate models, since it impacts the tropospheric burden of sulfate aerosol, a major climate-forcing species. Despite its significance, an inventory of passive volcanic degassing is very difficult to produce, due largely to the patchy spatial and temporal coverage of ground-based SO2 measurements. We report here the first volcanic SO2 emissions inventory derived from global, coincident satellite measurements, made by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA’s Aura satellite in 2005-2015. The OMI measurements permit estimation of SO2 emissions from over 90 volcanoes, including new constraints on fluxes from Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, the Aleutian Islands, the Kuril Islands and Kamchatka. On average over the past decade, the volcanic SO2 sources consistently detected from space have discharged a total of ~63 kt/day SO2 during passive degassing, or ~23 ± 2 Tg/yr. We find that ~30% of the sources show significant decadal trends in SO2 emissions, with positive trends observed at multiple volcanoes in some regions including Vanuatu, southern Japan, Peru and Chile.

  2. Key Trends Shaping the Global Logistics Environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Handfield, Robert; Straube, Frank; Pfohl, Hans-Christian

    A summary from the full study “Trends and Strategies in Logistics and Supply Chain Management. Embracing Global Logistics Complexity to Drive Market Advantage” (2013).......A summary from the full study “Trends and Strategies in Logistics and Supply Chain Management. Embracing Global Logistics Complexity to Drive Market Advantage” (2013)....

  3. Emission of greenhouse gases 1990-2010. Trends and driving forces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-03-01

    Emissions of greenhouse gases in Norway from 1990-2010 - trends and driving forces, a report that presents emission trends in Norway with the analysis of the main drivers and trends, and a review and analysis of the effectiveness of implemented measures.(Author)

  4. Constraining the carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) budget using its global trend and inter-hemispheric gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Qing; Newman, Paul A.; Daniel, John S.; Reimann, Stefan; Hall, Bradley D.; Dutton, Geoff; Kuijpers, Lambert J. M.

    2014-07-01

    Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) is a major anthropogenic ozone-depleting substance and greenhouse gas and has been regulated under the Montreal Protocol. However, the near-zero 2007-2012 emissions estimate based on the UNEP reported production and feedstock usage cannot be reconciled with the observed slow decline of atmospheric concentrations and the inter-hemispheric gradient (IHG) for CCl4. Our 3-D model simulations suggest that the observed IHG (1.5 ± 0.2 ppt for 2000-2012) is primarily caused by ongoing current emissions, while ocean and soil losses and stratosphere-troposphere exchange together contribute a small negative gradient (~0 - -0.3 ppt). Using the observed CCl4 global trend and IHG, we deduce that the mean global emissions for the 2000-2012 period are 393445 Gg/yr (~30% of the peak 1980s emissions) and a corresponding total lifetime of 353732 years.

  5. Climate variability and trends in biogenic emissions imprinted on satellite observations of formaldehyde from SCIAMACHY and OMI sounders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Müller, Jean-François; Bauwens, Maite; De Smedt, Isabelle; Van Roozendael, Michel

    2017-04-01

    Biogenic hydrocarbon emissions (BVOC) respond to temperature, photosynthetically active radiation, leaf area index, as well as to factors like leaf age, soil moisture, and ambient CO2 concentrations. Isoprene is the principal contributor to BVOC emissions and accounts for about half of the estimated total emissions on the global scale, whereas monoterpenes are also significant over boreal ecosystems. Due to their large emissions, their major role in the tropospheric ozone formation and contribution to secondary organic aerosols, BVOCs are highly relevant to both air quality and climate. Their oxidation in the atmosphere leads to the formation of formaldehyde (HCHO) at high yields. Satellite observations of HCHO abundances can therefore inform us on the spatial and temporal variability of the underlying sources and on their emission trends. The main objective of this study is to investigate the interannual variability and trends of observed HCHO columns during the growing season, when BVOC emissions are dominant, and interpret them in terms of BVOC emission flux variability. To this aim, we use the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model driven by the ECMWF ERA-interim meteorology to calculate bottom-up BVOC fluxes on the global scale (Müller et al. 2008, Stavrakou et al. 2014) over 2003-2015, and satellite HCHO observations from SCIAMACHY (2003-2011) and OMI (2005-2015) instruments (De Smedt et al. 2008, 2015). We focus on mid- and high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere in summertime, as well as tropical regions taking care to exclude biomass burning events which also lead to HCHO column enhancements. We find generally a very strong temporal correlation (>0.7) between the simulated BVOC emissions and the observed HCHO columns over temperate and boreal ecosystems. Positive BVOC emission trends associated to warming climate are found in almost all regions and are well corroborated by the observations. Furthermore, using OMI HCHO observations over 2005-2015 as constraints in

  6. Temporal comparison of global inventories of CO2 emissions from biomass burning during 2002-2011 derived from remotely sensed data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Yusheng; Matsunaga, Tsuneo

    2017-07-01

    Biomass burning is a large important source of greenhouse gases and atmospheric aerosols, and can contribute greatly to the temporal variations of CO 2 emissions at regional and global scales. In this study, we compared four globally gridded CO 2 emission inventories from biomass burning during the period of 2002-2011, highlighting the similarities and differences in seasonality and interannual variability of the CO 2 emissions both at regional and global scales. The four datasets included Global Fire Emissions Database 4s with small fires (GFED4s), Global Fire Assimilation System 1.0 (GFAS1.0), Fire INventory from NCAR 1.0 (FINN1.0), and Global Inventory for Chemistry-Climate studies-GFED4s (G-G). The results showed that in general, the four inventories presented consistent temporal trend but with large differences as well. Globally, CO 2 emissions of GFED4s, GFAS1.0, and G-G all peaked in August with the exception in FINN1.0, which recorded another peak in annual March. The interannual trend of all datasets displayed an overall decrease in CO 2 emissions during 2002-2011, except for the inconsistent FINN1.0, which showed a tendency to increase during the considered period. Meanwhile, GFED4s and GFAS1.0 noted consistent agreement from 2002 to 2011 at both global (R 2  > 0.8) and continental levels (R 2  > 0.7). FINN1.0 was found to have the poorest temporal correlations with the other three inventories globally (R 2  80%) but showed small variations through the years (<40%).

  7. The decrease of CO2 emission intensity is decarbonization at national and global levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, J.W.

    2005-01-01

    This viewpoint proposes the definition: 'Decarbonization refers to a decrease of CO 2 emission intensity in a trend'. This viewpoint then argues that an analysis of decarbonization at national and global levels based on that definition would lead to the correct calculation of decarbonization

  8. Multi-annual changes of NOx emissions in megacity regions: nonlinear trend analysis of satellite measurement based estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Burrows

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Hazardous impact of air pollutant emissions from megacities on atmospheric composition on regional and global scales is currently an important issue in atmospheric research. However, the quantification of emissions and related effects is frequently a difficult task, especially in the case of developing countries, due to the lack of reliable data and information. This study examines possibilities to retrieve multi-annual NOx emissions changes in megacity regions from satellite measurements of nitrogen dioxide and to quantify them in terms of linear and nonlinear trends. By combining the retrievals of the GOME and SCIAMACHY satellite instrument data with simulations performed by the CHIMERE chemistry transport model, we obtain the time series of NOx emission estimates for the 12 largest urban agglomerations in Europe and the Middle East in the period from 1996 to 2008. We employ then a novel method allowing estimation of a nonlinear trend in a noisy time series of an observed variable. The method is based on the probabilistic approach and the use of artificial neural networks; it does not involve any quantitative a priori assumptions. As a result, statistically significant nonlinearities in the estimated NOx emission trends are detected in 5 megacities (Bagdad, Madrid, Milan, Moscow and Paris. Statistically significant upward linear trends are detected in Istanbul and Tehran, while downward linear trends are revealed in Berlin, London and the Ruhr agglomeration. The presence of nonlinearities in NOx emission changes in Milan, Paris and Madrid is confirmed by comparison of simulated NOx concentrations with independent air quality monitoring data. A good quantitative agreement between the linear trends in the simulated and measured near surface NOx concentrations is found in London.

  9. Mercury from wildfires: Global emission inventories and sensitivity to 2000-2050 global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Aditya; Wu, Shiliang; Huang, Yaoxian; Liao, Hong; Kaplan, Jed O.

    2018-01-01

    We estimate the global Hg wildfire emissions for the 2000s and the potential impacts from the 2000-2050 changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions by combining statistical analysis with global data on vegetation type and coverage as well as fire activities. Global Hg wildfire emissions are estimated to be 612 Mg year-1. Africa is the dominant source region (43.8% of global emissions), followed by Eurasia (31%) and South America (16.6%). We find significant perturbations to wildfire emissions of Hg in the context of global change, driven by the projected changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions. 2000-2050 climate change could increase Hg emissions by 14% globally and regionally by 18% for South America, 14% for Africa and 13% for Eurasia. Projected changes in land use by 2050 could decrease the global Hg emissions from wildfires by 13% mainly driven by a decline in African emissions due to significant agricultural land expansion. Future land cover changes could lead to significant increases in Hg emissions over some regions (+32% North America, +14% Africa, +13% Eurasia). Potential enrichment of terrestrial ecosystems in 2050 in response to changes in Hg anthropogenic emissions could increase Hg wildfire emissions globally (+28%) and regionally (+19% North America, +20% South America, +24% Africa, +41% Eurasia). Our results indicate that the future evolution of climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions are all important factors affecting Hg wildfire emissions in the coming decades.

  10. A two-dimensional model study of past trends in global ozone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wuebbles, D.J.; Kinnison, D.E.

    1988-08-01

    Emissions and atmospheric concentrations of several trace gases important to atmospheric chemistry are known to have increased substantially over recent decades. Solar flux variations and the atmospheric nuclear test series are also likely to have affected stratospheric ozone. In this study, the LLNL two-dimensional chemical-radiative-transport model of the troposphere and stratosphere has been applied to an analysis of the effects that these natural and anthropogenic influences may have had on global ozone concentrations over the last three decades. In general, model determined species distributions and the derived ozone trends agree well with published analyses of land-based and satellite-based observations. Also, the total ozone and ozone distribution trends derived from CFC and other trace gas effects have a different response with latitude than the derived trends from solar flux variations, thus providing a ''signature'' for anthropogenic effects on ozone. 24 refs., 5 figs

  11. From carbonization to decarbonization?-Past trends and future scenarios for China's CO2 emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steckel, Jan Christoph; Jakob, Michael; Marschinski, Robert; Luderer, Gunnar

    2011-01-01

    Along the lines of the Kaya identity, we perform a decomposition analysis of historical and projected emissions data for China. We compare the results with reduction requirements implied by globally cost-effective mitigation scenarios and official Chinese policy targets. For the years 1971-2000 we find that the impact of high economic growth on emissions was partially compensated by a steady fall in energy intensity. However, the end - and even reversal - of this downward trend, along with a rising carbon intensity of energy, resulted in rapid emission growth during 2000-2007. By applying an innovative enhanced Kaya-decomposition method, we also show how the persistent increase in the use of coal has caused carbon intensity to rise throughout the entire time-horizon of the analysis. These insights are then compared to model scenarios for future energy system developments generated by the ReMIND-R model. The analysis reaffirms China's indispensable role in global efforts to implement any of three exemplary stabilization targets (400, 450, or 500 ppm CO 2 -only), and underscore the increasing importance of carbon intensity for the more ambitious targets. Finally, we compare China's official targets for energy intensity and carbon intensity of GDP to projections for global cost-effective stabilization scenarios, finding them to be roughly compatible in the short-to-mid-term. - Highlights: → An extended Kaya-decomposition is applied to historical data and ReMIND-R scenario results for China. → Reversing a historic trend, energy intensity has increased in recent years. → The contribution of coal in increasing carbon intensity and emissions has been constant in the past. → Decarbonization becomes increasingly important with increasingly ambitious climate targets. → Chinese targets for carbon intensity of GDP are in line with a 450 ppm CO 2 -only stabilization scenario.

  12. Trends in Aggregate Vehicle Emissions: Do We Need To Emissions Test?

    OpenAIRE

    Matthew Kahn

    1995-01-01

    Vehicle emissions are falling. As the oldest vehicles in the fleet are scrapped and are replaced by cleaner vehicles, aggregate emissions decline. Given this trend, must costly used car regulation continue? The Clean Air Act of 1990 requires more stringent used car testing without considering the counter-factual of how aggregate emissions would evolve in the absence of more regulation. This paper use data on vehicle scrappage rates, vehicle emissions by model year, and county air quality leve...

  13. Emission allowances -- Long-term price trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lennox, F.H.

    1994-01-01

    Estimated trends in emission allowance (EA) values have been of interest to all those affected by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 since it became law in 1990. The authors published estimates of the values of EAs in December 1991, and revised their estimate in November 1992. The summary trends of the 1992 estimate is shown here. General estimates such as these are no longer useful. Everyone directly involved in complying with the Act or in buying and selling allowances has developed their own outlook on EA values. Many recent trades have been publicized. The prices from the first auction are also well known. Therefore this article is concerned only with what might happening the long-run. Once Phase 2 compliance is essentially complete and emissions roughly match Emission Allowance allocations of some 9.8 million tons annually, what pressures will there be on prices? What will be the direction of values after Phase 2 is in balance?

  14. Atmospheric verification of anthropogenic CO2 emission trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francey, Roger J.; Trudinger, Cathy M.; van der Schoot, Marcel; Law, Rachel M.; Krummel, Paul B.; Langenfelds, Ray L.; Paul Steele, L.; Allison, Colin E.; Stavert, Ann R.; Andres, Robert J.; Rödenbeck, Christian

    2013-05-01

    International efforts to limit global warming and ocean acidification aim to slow the growth of atmospheric CO2, guided primarily by national and industry estimates of production and consumption of fossil fuels. Atmospheric verification of emissions is vital but present global inversion methods are inadequate for this purpose. We demonstrate a clear response in atmospheric CO2 coinciding with a sharp 2010 increase in Asian emissions but show persisting slowing mean CO2 growth from 2002/03. Growth and inter-hemispheric concentration difference during the onset and recovery of the Global Financial Crisis support a previous speculation that the reported 2000-2008 emissions surge is an artefact, most simply explained by a cumulative underestimation (~ 9PgC) of 1994-2007 emissions; in this case, post-2000 emissions would track mid-range of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios. An alternative explanation requires changes in the northern terrestrial land sink that offset anthropogenic emission changes. We suggest atmospheric methods to help resolve this ambiguity.

  15. Trends and Projected Estimates of GHG Emissions from Indian Livestock in Comparisons with GHG Emissions from World and Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amlan Kumar Patra

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This study presents trends and projected estimates of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from livestock of India vis-à-vis world and developing countries over the period 1961 to 2010 estimated based on IPCC guidelines. World enteric methane emission (EME increased by 54.3% (61.5 to 94.9 ×109 kg annually from the year 1961 to 2010, and the highest annual growth rate (AGR was noted for goat (2.0%, followed by buffalo (1.57% and swine (1.53%. Global EME is projected to increase to 120×109 kg by 2050. The percentage increase in EME by Indian livestock was greater than world livestock (70.6% vs 54.3% between the years 1961 to 2010, and AGR was highest for goat (1.91%, followed by buffalo (1.55%, swine (1.28%, sheep (1.25% and cattle (0.70%. In India, total EME was projected to grow by 18.8×109 kg in 2050. Global methane emission from manure (MEM increased from 6.81 ×109 kg in 1961 to 11.4×109 kg in 2010 (an increase of 67.6%, and is projected to grow to 15×109 kg by 2050. In India, the annual MEM increased from 0.52×109 kg to 1.1×109 kg (with an AGR of 1.57% in this period, which could increase to 1.54×109 kg in 2050. Nitrous oxide emission from manure in India could be 21.4×106 kg in 2050 from 15.3×106 kg in 2010. The AGR of global GHG emissions changed a small extent (only 0.11% from developed countries, but increased drastically (1.23% for developing countries between the periods of 1961 to 2010. Major contributions to world GHG came from cattle (79.3%, swine (9.57% and sheep (7.40%, and for developing countries from cattle (68.3%, buffalo (13.7% and goat (5.4%. The increase of GHG emissions by Indian livestock was less (74% vs 82% over the period of 1961 to 2010 than the developing countries. With this trend, world GHG emissions could reach 3,520×109 kg CO2-eq by 2050 due to animal population growth driven by increased demands for meat and dairy products in the world.

  16. Determinants and predictability of global wildfire emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Knorr

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Biomass burning is one of the largest sources of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols globally. These emissions have a major impact on the radiative balance of the atmosphere and on air quality, and are thus of significant scientific and societal interest. Several datasets have been developed that quantify those emissions on a global grid and offered to the atmospheric modelling community. However, no study has yet attempted to systematically quantify the dependence of the inferred pyrogenic emissions on underlying assumptions and input data. Such a sensitivity study is needed for understanding how well we can currently model those emissions and what the factors are that contribute to uncertainties in those emission estimates.

    Here, we combine various satellite-derived burned area products, a terrestrial ecosystem model to simulate fuel loads and the effect of fire on ecosystem dynamics, a model of fuel combustion, and various emission models that relate combusted biomass to the emission of various trace gases and aerosols. We carry out simulations with varying parameters for combustion completeness and fuel decomposition rates within published estimates, four different emissions models and three different global burned-area products. We find that variations in combustion completeness and simulated fuel loads have the largest impact on simulated global emissions for most species, except for some with highly uncertain emission factors. Variation in burned-area estimates also contribute considerably to emission uncertainties. We conclude that global models urgently need more field-based data for better parameterisation of combustion completeness and validation of simulated fuel loads, and that further validation and improvement of burned area information is necessary for accurately modelling global wildfire emissions. The results are important for chemical transport modelling studies, and for simulations of biomass burning impacts on the

  17. Carbon emission from global hydroelectric reservoirs revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Siyue; Zhang, Quanfa

    2014-12-01

    Substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from hydropower reservoirs have been of great concerns recently, yet the significant carbon emitters of drawdown area and reservoir downstream (including spillways and turbines as well as river reaches below dams) have not been included in global carbon budget. Here, we revisit GHG emission from hydropower reservoirs by considering reservoir surface area, drawdown zone and reservoir downstream. Our estimates demonstrate around 301.3 Tg carbon dioxide (CO2)/year and 18.7 Tg methane (CH4)/year from global hydroelectric reservoirs, which are much higher than recent observations. The sum of drawdown and downstream emission, which is generally overlooked, represents 42 % CO2 and 67 % CH4 of the total emissions from hydropower reservoirs. Accordingly, the global average emissions from hydropower are estimated to be 92 g CO2/kWh and 5.7 g CH4/kWh. Nonetheless, global hydroelectricity could currently reduce approximate 2,351 Tg CO2eq/year with respect to fuel fossil plant alternative. The new findings show a substantial revision of carbon emission from the global hydropower reservoirs.

  18. A human-scale perspective on global warming: Zero emission year and personal quotas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojas, Maisa; Mac Lean, Claudia

    2017-01-01

    This article builds on the premise that human consumption of goods, food and transport are the ultimate drivers of climate change. However, the nature of the climate change problem (well described as a tragedy of the commons) makes it difficult for individuals to recognise their personal duty to implement behavioural changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, this article aims to analyse the climate change issue from a human-scale perspective, in which each of us has a clearly defined personal quota of CO2 emissions that limits our activity and there is a finite time during which CO2 emissions must be eliminated to achieve the “well below 2°C” warming limit set by the Paris Agreement of 2015 (COP21). Thus, this work’s primary contribution is to connect an equal per capita fairness approach to a global carbon budget, linking personal levels with planetary levels. Here, we show that a personal quota of 5.0 tons of CO2 yr-1 p-1 is a representative value for both past and future emissions; for this level of a constant per-capita emissions and without considering any mitigation, the global accumulated emissions compatible with the “well below 2°C” and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2030 and 2050, respectively. These are references years that provide an order of magnitude of the time that is left to reverse the global warming trend. More realistic scenarios that consider a smooth transition toward a zero-emission world show that the global accumulated emissions compatible with the “well below 2°C” and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2040 and 2080, respectively. Implications of this paper include a return to personal responsibility following equity principles among individuals, and a definition of boundaries to the personal emissions of CO2. PMID:28628676

  19. A human-scale perspective on global warming: Zero emission year and personal quotas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Fuente, Alberto; Rojas, Maisa; Mac Lean, Claudia

    2017-01-01

    This article builds on the premise that human consumption of goods, food and transport are the ultimate drivers of climate change. However, the nature of the climate change problem (well described as a tragedy of the commons) makes it difficult for individuals to recognise their personal duty to implement behavioural changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, this article aims to analyse the climate change issue from a human-scale perspective, in which each of us has a clearly defined personal quota of CO2 emissions that limits our activity and there is a finite time during which CO2 emissions must be eliminated to achieve the "well below 2°C" warming limit set by the Paris Agreement of 2015 (COP21). Thus, this work's primary contribution is to connect an equal per capita fairness approach to a global carbon budget, linking personal levels with planetary levels. Here, we show that a personal quota of 5.0 tons of CO2 yr-1 p-1 is a representative value for both past and future emissions; for this level of a constant per-capita emissions and without considering any mitigation, the global accumulated emissions compatible with the "well below 2°C" and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2030 and 2050, respectively. These are references years that provide an order of magnitude of the time that is left to reverse the global warming trend. More realistic scenarios that consider a smooth transition toward a zero-emission world show that the global accumulated emissions compatible with the "well below 2°C" and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2040 and 2080, respectively. Implications of this paper include a return to personal responsibility following equity principles among individuals, and a definition of boundaries to the personal emissions of CO2.

  20. Revised spatially distributed global livestock emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asrar, G.; Wolf, J.; West, T. O.

    2015-12-01

    Livestock play an important role in agricultural carbon cycling through consumption of biomass and emissions of methane. Quantification and spatial distribution of methane and carbon dioxide produced by livestock is needed to develop bottom-up estimates for carbon monitoring. These estimates serve as stand-alone international emissions estimates, as input to global emissions modeling, and as comparisons or constraints to flux estimates from atmospheric inversion models. Recent results for the US suggest that the 2006 IPCC default coefficients may underestimate livestock methane emissions. In this project, revised coefficients were calculated for cattle and swine in all global regions, based on reported changes in body mass, quality and quantity of feed, milk production, and management of living animals and manure for these regions. New estimates of livestock methane and carbon dioxide emissions were calculated using the revised coefficients and global livestock population data. Spatial distribution of population data and associated fluxes was conducted using the MODIS Land Cover Type 5, version 5.1 (i.e. MCD12Q1 data product), and a previously published downscaling algorithm for reconciling inventory and satellite-based land cover data at 0.05 degree resolution. Preliminary results for 2013 indicate greater emissions than those calculated using the IPCC 2006 coefficients. Global total enteric fermentation methane increased by 6%, while manure management methane increased by 38%, with variation among species and regions resulting in improved spatial distributions of livestock emissions. These new estimates of total livestock methane are comparable to other recently reported studies for the entire US and the State of California. These new regional/global estimates will improve the ability to reconcile top-down and bottom-up estimates of methane production as well as provide updated global estimates for use in development and evaluation of Earth system models.

  1. Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, Stefan; Giulio-Tonolo, Fabio; Lyons, Josh; Kučera, Jan; Jones, Brenda; Schneiderhan, Tobias; Platzeck, Gabriel; Kaku, Kazuya; Hazarika, Manzul Kumar; Czaran, Lorant; Li, Suju; Pedersen, Wendi; James, Godstime Kadiri; Proy, Catherine; Muthike, Denis Macharia; Bequignon, Jerome; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

    2016-01-01

    Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective.

  2. Modeling temporal variations in global residential energy consumption and pollutant emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Han; Huang, Ye; Shen, Huizhong; Chen, Yilin; Ru, Muye; Chen, Yuanchen; Lin, Nan; Su, Shu; Zhuo, Shaojie; Zhong, Qirui; Wang, Xilong; Liu, Junfeng; Li, Bengang; Tao, Shu

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Space-for-time substitution was tested for seasonality of residential energy. • Regression models were developed to simulate global residential energy consumption. • Factors affecting the temporal trend in residential energy use were identified. • Climate warming will induce changes in residential energy use and emissions. - Abstract: Energy data are often reported on an annual basis. To address the climate and health impacts of greenhouse gases and air pollutants, seasonally resolved emissions inventories are needed. The seasonality of energy consumption is most affected by consumption in the residential sector. In this study, a set of regression models were developed based on temperature-related variables and a series of socioeconomic parameters to quantify global electricity and fuel consumption for the residential sector. The models were evaluated against observations and applied to simulate monthly changes in residential energy consumption and the resultant emissions of air pollutants. Changes in energy consumption are strongly affected by economic prosperity and population growth. Climate change, electricity prices, and urbanization also affect energy use. Climate warming will cause a net increase in electricity consumption and a decrease in fuel consumption by the residential sector. Consequently, emissions of CO_2, SO_2, and Hg are predicted to decrease, while emissions of incomplete combustion products are expected to increase. These changes vary regionally.

  3. Is the global mean temperature trend too low?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf

    2015-04-01

    The global mean temperature trend may be biased due to similar technological and economic developments worldwide. In this study we want to present a number of recent results that suggest that the global mean temperature trend might be steeper as generally thought. In the Global Historical Climate Network version 3 (GHCNv3) the global land surface temperature is estimated to have increased by about 0.8°C between 1880 and 2012. In the raw temperature record, the increase is 0.6°C; the 0.2°C difference is due to homogenization adjustments. Given that homogenization can only reduce biases, this 0.2°C stems from a partial correction of bias errors and it seems likely that the real non-climatic trend bias will be larger. Especially in regions with sparser networks, homogenization will not be able to improve the trend much. Thus if the trend bias in these regions is similar to the bias for more dense networks (industrialized countries), one would expect the real bias to be larger. Stations in sparse networks are representative for a larger region and are given more weight in the computation of the global mean temperature. If all stations are given equal weight, the homogenization adjustments of the GHCNv3 dataset are about 0.4°C per century. In the subdaily HadISH dataset one break with mean size 0.12°C is found every 15 years for the period 1973-2013. That would be a trend bias of 0.78°C per century on a station by station basis. Unfortunately, these estimates strongly focus on Western countries having more stations. It is known from the literature that rich countries have a (statistically insignificant) stronger trend in the global datasets. Regional datasets can be better homogenized than global ones, the main reason being that global datasets do not contain all stations known to the weather services. Furthermore, global datasets use automatic homogenization methods and have less or no metadata. Thus while regional data can be biased themselves, comparing them

  4. Natural gas fugitive emissions rates constrained by global atmospheric methane and ethane.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwietzke, Stefan; Griffin, W Michael; Matthews, H Scott; Bruhwiler, Lori M P

    2014-07-15

    The amount of methane emissions released by the natural gas (NG) industry is a critical and uncertain value for various industry and policy decisions, such as for determining the climate implications of using NG over coal. Previous studies have estimated fugitive emissions rates (FER)--the fraction of produced NG (mainly methane and ethane) escaped to the atmosphere--between 1 and 9%. Most of these studies rely on few and outdated measurements, and some may represent only temporal/regional NG industry snapshots. This study estimates NG industry representative FER using global atmospheric methane and ethane measurements over three decades, and literature ranges of (i) tracer gas atmospheric lifetimes, (ii) non-NG source estimates, and (iii) fossil fuel fugitive gas hydrocarbon compositions. The modeling suggests an upper bound global average FER of 5% during 2006-2011, and a most likely FER of 2-4% since 2000, trending downward. These results do not account for highly uncertain natural hydrocarbon seepage, which could lower the FER. Further emissions reductions by the NG industry may be needed to ensure climate benefits over coal during the next few decades.

  5. A Global Look at Future Trends in the Renewable Energy Resource

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, S.; Freedman, J. M.; Kirk-Davidoff, D. B.; Brower, M.

    2017-12-01

    With the aggressive deployment of utility-scale and distributed generation of wind and solar energy systems, an accurate estimate of the uncertainty associated with future resource trends and plant performance is crucial in maintaining financial integrity in the renewable energy markets. With continuing concerns regarding climate change, the move towards energy resiliency, and the cost-competitiveness of renewables, a rapidly expanding fleet of utility-scale wind and solar power facilities and distributed generation of both resources is now being incorporated into the electric distribution grid. Although solar and wind account for about 3% of global power production, renewable energy is now and will continue to be the world's fastest-growing energy source. With deeper penetration of renewables, confidence in future power production output on a spectrum of temporal and spatial scales is crucial to grid stability for long-term planning and achieving national and international targets in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we use output from a diverse subset of Earth System Models (Climate Model Inter-comparison Project-Phase 5 members) to produce projected trends and uncertainties in regional and global seasonal and inter-annual wind and solar power production and respective capacity factors through the end of the 21st century. Our trends and uncertainty analysis focuses on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. For wind and solar energy production estimates, we extract surface layer wind (extrapolated to hub height), irradiance, cloud fraction, and temperature (air temperature affects density [hence wind power production] and the efficiency of photovoltaic [PV] systems), output from the CMIP5 ensemble mean fields for the period 2020 - 2099 and an historical baseline for POR of 1986 - 2005 (compared with long-term observations and the ERA-Interim Reanalysis). Results include representative statistics such as the

  6. Nine years of global hydrocarbon emissions based on source inversion of OMI formaldehyde observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Bauwens

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available As formaldehyde (HCHO is a high-yield product in the oxidation of most volatile organic compounds (VOCs emitted by fires, vegetation, and anthropogenic activities, satellite observations of HCHO are well-suited to inform us on the spatial and temporal variability of the underlying VOC sources. The long record of space-based HCHO column observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI is used to infer emission flux estimates from pyrogenic and biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs on the global scale over 2005–2013. This is realized through the method of source inverse modeling, which consists in the optimization of emissions in a chemistry-transport model (CTM in order to minimize the discrepancy between the observed and modeled HCHO columns. The top–down fluxes are derived in the global CTM IMAGESv2 by an iterative minimization algorithm based on the full adjoint of IMAGESv2, starting from a priori emission estimates provided by the newly released GFED4s (Global Fire Emission Database, version 4s inventory for fires, and by the MEGAN-MOHYCAN inventory for isoprene emissions. The top–down fluxes are compared to two independent inventories for fire (GFAS and FINNv1.5 and isoprene emissions (MEGAN-MACC and GUESS-ES. The inversion indicates a moderate decrease (ca. 20 % in the average annual global fire and isoprene emissions, from 2028 Tg C in the a priori to 1653 Tg C for burned biomass, and from 343 to 272 Tg for isoprene fluxes. Those estimates are acknowledged to depend on the accuracy of formaldehyde data, as well as on the assumed fire emission factors and the oxidation mechanisms leading to HCHO production. Strongly decreased top–down fire fluxes (30–50 % are inferred in the peak fire season in Africa and during years with strong a priori fluxes associated with forest fires in Amazonia (in 2005, 2007, and 2010, bushfires in Australia (in 2006 and 2011, and peat burning in Indonesia (in 2006 and 2009, whereas

  7. Globalization and pollution: tele-connecting local primary PM2.5 emissions to global consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Jing; Liu, Junfeng; Xu, Yuan; Guan, Dabo; Liu, Zhu; Huang, Ye; Tao, Shu

    2016-11-01

    Globalization pushes production and consumption to geographically diverse locations and generates a variety of sizeable opportunities and challenges. The distribution and associated effects of short-lived primary fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), a representative of local pollution, are significantly affected by the consumption through global supply chain. Tele-connection is used here to represent the link between production and consumption activity at large distances. In this study, we develop a global consumption-based primary PM 2.5 emission inventory to track primary PM 2.5 emissions embodied in the supply chain and evaluate the extent to which local PM 2.5 emissions are triggered by international trade. We further adopt consumption-based accounting and identify the global original source that produced the emissions. We find that anthropogenic PM 2.5 emissions from industrial sectors accounted for 24 Tg globally in 2007; approximately 30% (7.2 Tg) of these emissions were embodied in export of products principally from Brazil, South Africa, India and China (3.8 Tg) to developed countries. Large differences (up to 10 times) in the embodied emissions intensity between net importers and exporters greatly increased total global PM 2.5 emissions. Tele-connecting production and consumption activity provides valuable insights with respect to mitigating long-range transboundary air pollution and prompts concerted efforts aiming at more environmentally conscious globalization.

  8. Globalization and pollution: tele-connecting local primary PM2.5 emissions to global consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Jing; Xu, Yuan; Guan, Dabo; Liu, Zhu; Huang, Ye; Tao, Shu

    2016-01-01

    Globalization pushes production and consumption to geographically diverse locations and generates a variety of sizeable opportunities and challenges. The distribution and associated effects of short-lived primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a representative of local pollution, are significantly affected by the consumption through global supply chain. Tele-connection is used here to represent the link between production and consumption activity at large distances. In this study, we develop a global consumption-based primary PM2.5 emission inventory to track primary PM2.5 emissions embodied in the supply chain and evaluate the extent to which local PM2.5 emissions are triggered by international trade. We further adopt consumption-based accounting and identify the global original source that produced the emissions. We find that anthropogenic PM2.5 emissions from industrial sectors accounted for 24 Tg globally in 2007; approximately 30% (7.2 Tg) of these emissions were embodied in export of products principally from Brazil, South Africa, India and China (3.8 Tg) to developed countries. Large differences (up to 10 times) in the embodied emissions intensity between net importers and exporters greatly increased total global PM2.5 emissions. Tele-connecting production and consumption activity provides valuable insights with respect to mitigating long-range transboundary air pollution and prompts concerted efforts aiming at more environmentally conscious globalization. PMID:27956874

  9. Globalization and pollution: tele-connecting local primary PM2.5 emissions to global consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Jing; Liu, Junfeng; Xu, Yuan; Guan, Dabo; Liu, Zhu; Huang, Ye; Tao, Shu

    2016-11-01

    Globalization pushes production and consumption to geographically diverse locations and generates a variety of sizeable opportunities and challenges. The distribution and associated effects of short-lived primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a representative of local pollution, are significantly affected by the consumption through global supply chain. Tele-connection is used here to represent the link between production and consumption activity at large distances. In this study, we develop a global consumption-based primary PM2.5 emission inventory to track primary PM2.5 emissions embodied in the supply chain and evaluate the extent to which local PM2.5 emissions are triggered by international trade. We further adopt consumption-based accounting and identify the global original source that produced the emissions. We find that anthropogenic PM2.5 emissions from industrial sectors accounted for 24 Tg globally in 2007; approximately 30% (7.2 Tg) of these emissions were embodied in export of products principally from Brazil, South Africa, India and China (3.8 Tg) to developed countries. Large differences (up to 10 times) in the embodied emissions intensity between net importers and exporters greatly increased total global PM2.5 emissions. Tele-connecting production and consumption activity provides valuable insights with respect to mitigating long-range transboundary air pollution and prompts concerted efforts aiming at more environmentally conscious globalization.

  10. Global sulfur emissions from 1850 to 2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, David I

    2005-01-01

    The ASL database provides continuous time-series of sulfur emissions for most countries in the World from 1850 to 1990, but academic and official estimates for the 1990s either do not cover all years or countries. This paper develops continuous time series of sulfur emissions by country for the period 1850-2000 with a particular focus on developments in the 1990s. Global estimates for 1996-2000 are the first that are based on actual observed data. Raw estimates are obtained in two ways. For countries and years with existing published data I compile and integrate that data. Previously published data covers the majority of emissions and almost all countries have published emissions for at least 1995. For the remaining countries and for missing years for countries with some published data, I interpolate or extrapolate estimates using either an econometric emissions frontier model, an environmental Kuznets curve model, or a simple extrapolation, depending on the availability of data. Finally, I discuss the main movements in global and regional emissions in the 1990s and earlier decades and compare the results to other studies. Global emissions peaked in 1989 and declined rapidly thereafter. The locus of emissions shifted towards East and South Asia, but even this region peaked in 1996. My estimates for the 1990s show a much more rapid decline than other global studies, reflecting the view that technological progress in reducing sulfur based pollution has been rapid and is beginning to diffuse worldwide.

  11. On Global Electricity Usage of Communication Technology: Trends to 2030

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anders S. G. Andrae

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This work presents an estimation of the global electricity usage that can be ascribed to Communication Technology (CT between 2010 and 2030. The scope is three scenarios for use and production of consumer devices, communication networks and data centers. Three different scenarios, best, expected, and worst, are set up, which include annual numbers of sold devices, data traffic and electricity intensities/efficiencies. The most significant trend, regardless of scenario, is that the proportion of use-stage electricity by consumer devices will decrease and will be transferred to the networks and data centers. Still, it seems like wireless access networks will not be the main driver for electricity use. The analysis shows that for the worst-case scenario, CT could use as much as 51% of global electricity in 2030. This will happen if not enough improvement in electricity efficiency of wireless access networks and fixed access networks/data centers is possible. However, until 2030, globally-generated renewable electricity is likely to exceed the electricity demand of all networks and data centers. Nevertheless, the present investigation suggests, for the worst-case scenario, that CT electricity usage could contribute up to 23% of the globally released greenhouse gas emissions in 2030.

  12. Changes in US background ozone due to global anthropogenic emissions from 1970 to 2020

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Jung, Jaegun; Kumar, Naresh; Yarwood, Greg

    2016-09-01

    Estimates of North American and US Background (NAB and USB) ozone (O3) are critical in setting and implementing the US National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and therefore influence population exposure to O3 across the US. NAB is defined as the O3 concentration in the absence of anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions from North America whereas USB excludes anthropogenic emissions inside the US alone. NAB and USB vary geographically and with time of year. Analyses of O3 trends at rural locations near the west coast suggest that background O3 is rising in response to increasing non-US emissions. As the O3 NAAQS is lowered, rising background O3 would make attaining the NAAQS more difficult. Most studies of changing US background O3 have inferred trends from observations whereas air quality management decisions tend to rely on models. Thus, it is important that the models used to develop O3 management strategies are able to represent the changes in background O3 in order to increase confidence that air quality management strategies will succeed. We focus on how changing global emissions influence USB rather than the effects of inter-annual meteorological variation or long-term climate change. We use a regional model (CAMx) nested within a global model (GEOS-Chem) to refine our grid resolution over high terrain in the western US and near US borders where USB tends to be higher. We determine USB from CAMx simulations that exclude US anthropogenic emissions. Over five decades, from 1970 to 2020, estimated USB for the annual fourth highest maximum daily 8-h average O3 (H4MDA8) in the western US increased from mostly in the range of 40-55 ppb to 45-60 ppb, but remained below 45 ppb in the eastern US. USB increases in the southwestern US are consistent with rising emissions in Asia and Mexico. USB decreases in the northeast US after 1990 follow declining Canadian emissions. Our results show that the USB increases both for the top 30 MDA8 days and the H4MDA8 (the former

  13. Global Trends of Tropospheric NO2 Observed From Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, P.; van der A, R. J.

    2012-04-01

    Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) is one of the major atmospheric pollutants and is primarily emitted by industrial activity and transport. While observations of NO2 are frequently being carried out at air quality stations, such measurements are not able to provide a global perspective of spatial patterns in NO2 concentrations and their associated trends due to the stations' limited spatial representativity and an extremely sparse and often completely non-existent station coverage in developing countries. Satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 are able to overcome this issue and provide an unprecedented global view of spatial patterns in NO2 levels and due to their homogeneity are well suited for studying trends. Here we present results of a global trend analysis from nearly a decade of NO2 observations made by the SCIAMACHY (SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY) instrument onboard the Envisat satellite platform. Using only SCIAMACHY data allows for mapping global and regional trends at an unprecedented spatial resolution since no aggregation to the coarser resolution of other sensors is necessary. Monthly average tropospheric NO2 column data was acquired for the period between August 2002 and August 2011. A trend analysis was subsequently performed by fitting a statistical model including a seasonal cycle and linear trend to the time series extracted at each grid cell. The linear trend component and the trend uncertainty were then mapped spatially at both regional and global scales. The results show that spatially contiguous areas of significantly increasing NO2 levels are found primarily in Eastern China, with absolute trends of up to 4.05 (± 0.41) - 1015 molecules cm-2 yr-1 at the gridcell level and large areas showing rapid relative increases of 10-20 percent per year. In addition, many urban agglomerations in Asia and the Middle East similarly exhibit significantly increasing trends, with Dhaka in Bangladesh being the megacity with

  14. Global Inverse Modeling of CH4 and δ13C-CH4 Measurements to Understand Recent Trends in Methane Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmakar, S.; Butenhoff, C. L.; Rice, A. L.; Khalil, A. K.

    2017-12-01

    Methane (CH4) is the second most important greenhouse gas with a radiative forcing of 0.97 W/m2 including both direct and indirect effects and a global warming potential of 28 over a 100-year time horizon. After a decades-long period of decline beginning in the 1980s, the methane growth rate rebounded in 2007 for reasons that are of current debate. During this same growth period atmospheric methane became less enriched in the 13CH4 isotope suggesting the recent CH4 growth was caused by an increase in 13CH4-depleted biogenic emissions. Recent papers have attributed this growth to increasing emissions from wetlands, rice agriculture, and ruminants. In this work we provide additional insight into the recent behavior of atmospheric methane and global wetland emissions by performing a three-dimensional Bayesian inversion of surface CH4 and 13CH4/12CH4 ratios using NOAA Global Monitoring Division (GMD) "event-level" CH4 measurements and the GEOS-Chem chemical-transport model (CTM) at a horizontal grid resolution of 2ox2.5o. The spatial pattern of wetland emissions was prescribed using soil moisture and temperature from GEOS-5 meteorology fields and soil carbon pools from the Lund-Potsdam-Jena global vegetation model. In order to reduce the aggregation error caused by a potentially flawed distribution and to account for isotopic measurements that indicate northern high latitude wetlands are isotopically depleted in 13CH4 relative to tropical wetlands we separated our pattern into three latitudinal bands (90-30°N, 30°N-0, 0-90°S). Our preliminary results support previous claims that the recent increase in atmospheric methane is driven by increases in biogenic CH4 emissions. We find that while wetland emissions from northern high latitudes (90-30°N) remained relatively constant during this time, southern hemisphere wetland emissions rebounded from a decade-long decline and began to rise again in 2007 and have remained elevated to the present. Emissions from rice

  15. DEVELOPMENT TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL DENTAL MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronica BULAT

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses the key trends of the market, and segments the global dental equipment and consumables market by components and into various geographic regions in way of market size. It discusses the key market drivers, main players, restraints and opportunities of the global dental equipment and consumables market.

  16. Movement of global warming issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugiyama, Taishi

    2015-01-01

    This paper summarizes the report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), and the movement of the global warming issues as seen from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Conference of the Parties: COP) and the policy discussions in Japan. From the Fifth Assessment Report published by IPCC, it shows the following items: (1) increasing trends of greenhouse effect gas emissions during 1970 and 2010, (2) trends in world's greenhouse effect gas emissions according to income segment, and (3) factor analysis of changes in greenhouse effect gas emissions. Next, it takes up the greenhouse gas emission scenario of IPCC, shows the scenario due to temperature rise pattern, and introduces the assumption of emission reduction due to BECCS. Regarding the 2 deg. scenario that has become a hot topic in international negotiations, it describes the reason for difficulties in its implementation. In addition, as the international trends of global warming, it describes the agreement of numerical targets for emissions at COP3 (Kyoto Conference) and the subsequent movements. Finally, it introduces Japan's measures against global warming, as well as the future movement. (A.O.)

  17. Global Trends in Workplace Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Lung-Sheng; Lai, Chun-Chin

    2012-01-01

    The paradigm of human resource development has shifted to workplace learning and performance. Workplace can be an organization, an office, a kitchen, a shop, a farm, a website, even a home. Workplace learning is a dynamic process to solve workplace problems through learning. An identification of global trends of workplace learning can help us to…

  18. Attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness from 1982 to 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Z.; Xu, L.; Bi, J.; Myneni, R.; Knyazikhin, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Time series of remotely sensed vegetation indices data provide evidence of changes in terrestrial vegetation activity over the past decades in the world. However, it is difficult to attribute cause-and-effect to vegetation trends because variations in vegetation productivity are driven by various factors. This study investigated changes in global vegetation productivity first, and then attributed the global natural vegetation with greening trend. Growing season integrated normalized difference vegetation index (GSI NDVI) derived from the new GIMMS NDVI3g dataset (1982-2011was analyzed. A combined time series analysis model, which was developed from simper linear trend model (SLT), autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and Vogelsang's t-PST model shows that productivity of all vegetation types except deciduous broadleaf forest predominantly showed increasing trends through the 30-year period. The evolution of changes in productivity in the last decade was also investigated. Area of greening vegetation monotonically increased through the last decade, and both the browning and no change area monotonically decreased. To attribute the predominant increase trend of productivity of global natural vegetation, trends of eight climate time series datasets (three temperature, three precipitation and two radiation datasets) were analyzed. The attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness was summarized as relaxation of climatic constraints, fertilization and other unknown reasons. Result shows that nearly all the productivity increase of global natural vegetation was driven by relaxation of climatic constraints and fertilization, which play equally important role in driving global vegetation greenness.; Area fraction and productivity change fraction of IGBP vegetation land cover classes showing statistically significant (10% level) trend in GSI NDVIt;

  19. Primary anthropogenic aerosol emission trends for China, 1990–2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Lei

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available An inventory of anthropogenic primary aerosol emissions in China was developed for 1990–2005 using a technology-based approach. Taking into account changes in the technology penetration within industry sectors and improvements in emission controls driven by stricter emission standards, a dynamic methodology was derived and implemented to estimate inter-annual emission factors. Emission factors of PM2.5 decreased by 7%–69% from 1990 to 2005 in different industry sectors of China, and emission factors of TSP decreased by 18%–80% as well, with the measures of controlling PM emissions implemented. As a result, emissions of PM2.5 and TSP in 2005 were 11.0 Tg and 29.7 Tg, respectively, less than what they would have been without the adoption of these measures. Emissions of PM2.5, PM10 and TSP presented similar trends: they increased in the first six years of 1990s and decreased until 2000, then increased again in the following years. Emissions of TSP peaked (35.5 Tg in 1996, while the peak of PM10 (18.8 Tg and PM2.5 (12.7 Tg emissions occurred in 2005. Although various emission trends were identified across sectors, the cement industry and biofuel combustion in the residential sector were consistently the largest sources of PM2.5 emissions, accounting for 53%–62% of emissions over the study period. The non-metallic mineral product industry, including the cement, lime and brick industries, accounted for 54%–63% of national TSP emissions. There were no significant trends of BC and OC emissions until 2000, but the increase after 2000 brought the peaks of BC (1.51 Tg and OC (3.19 Tg emissions in 2005. Although significant improvements in the estimation of primary aerosols are presented here, there still exist large uncertainties. More accurate and detailed activity information and emission factors based on local tests are essential to further improve emission estimates

  20. Global health care leadership development: trends to consider

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MacPhee M

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Maura MacPhee,1 Lilu Chang,2 Diana Lee,3 Wilza Spiri4 1University of British Columbia School of Nursing, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; 2Center for Advancement of Nursing Education, Koo Foundation, Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan; 3Nethersole School of Nursing, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, 4São Paulo State University, Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil Abstract: This paper provides an overview of trends associated with global health care leadership development. Accompanying these trends are propositions based on current available evidence. These testable propositions should be considered when designing, implementing, and evaluating global health care leadership development models and programs. One particular leadership development model, a multilevel identity model, is presented as a potential model to use for leadership development. Other, complementary approaches, such as positive psychology and empowerment strategies, are discussed in relation to leadership identity formation. Specific issues related to global leadership are reviewed, including cultural intelligence and global mindset. An example is given of a nurse leadership development model that has been empirically tested in Canada. Through formal practice–academic–community collaborations, this model has been locally adapted and is being used for nurse leader training in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Brazil. Collaborative work is under way to adapt the model for interprofessional health care leadership development. Keywords: health care leadership, development models, global trends, collective

  1. Trends in PM2.5 emissions, concentrations and apportionments in Detroit and Chicago

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milando, Chad; Huang, Lei; Batterman, Stuart

    2016-03-01

    PM2.5 concentrations throughout much of the U.S. have decreased over the last 15 years, but emissions and concentration trends can vary by location and source type. Such trends should be understood to inform air quality management and policies. This work examines trends in emissions, concentrations and source apportionments in two large Midwest U.S. cities, Detroit, Michigan, and Chicago, Illinois. Annual and seasonal trends were investigated using National Emission Inventory (NEI) data for 2002 to 2011, speciated ambient PM2.5 data from 2001 to 2014, apportionments from positive matrix factorization (PMF) receptor modeling, and quantile regression. Over the study period, county-wide data suggest emissions from point sources decreased (Detroit) or held constant (Chicago), while emissions from on-road mobile sources were constant (Detroit) or increased (Chicago), however changes in methodology limit the interpretation of inventory trends. Ambient concentration data also suggest source and apportionment trends, e.g., annual median concentrations of PM2.5 in the two cities declined by 3.2-3.6%/yr (faster than national trends), and sulfate concentrations (due to coal-fired facilities and other point source emissions) declined even faster; in contrast, organic and elemental carbon (tracers of gasoline and diesel vehicle exhaust) declined more slowly or held constant. The PMF models identified nine sources in Detroit and eight in Chicago, the most important being secondary sulfate, secondary nitrate and vehicle emissions. A minor crustal dust source, metals sources, and a biomass source also were present in both cities. These apportionments showed that the median relative contributions from secondary sulfate sources decreased by 4.2-5.5% per year in Detroit and Chicago, while contributions from metals sources, biomass sources, and vehicles increased from 1.3 to 9.2% per year. This first application of quantile regression to trend analyses of speciated PM2.5 data reveals

  2. Economic implications of climate-driven trends in global hydropower generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, S. W. D.; Galelli, S.; Hejazi, M. I.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Kim, S. H.

    2017-12-01

    Recent progress in global scale hydrological and dam modeling has allowed for the study of climate change impacts on global hydropower production. Here we explore how these impacts could affect the composition of global electricity supply, and what those changes could mean for power sector emissions and investment needs in the 21st century. Regional hydropower projections are developed for two emissions scenarios by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model (1593 major hydropower dams; 54% global installed capacity) with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations derived from sixteen General Circulation Models (GCMs). To incorporate possible non-linearity in hydropower response to climate change, dam simulations incorporate plant specifications (e.g., maximum turbine flow), reservoir storage dynamics, reservoir bathymetry, evaporation losses and bespoke, site specific operations. Consequent impacts on regional and global-level electricity generation and associated emissions and investment costs are examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We show that changes in hydropower generation resulting from climate change can shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies, resulting in significant impacts on CO2 emissions for several regions. Many of these countries are also highly vulnerable to investment impacts (costs of new electricity generating facilities to make up for shortfalls in hydro), which in some cases amount to tens of billions of dollars by 2100. The Balkans region—typified by weak economies in a drying region that relies heavily on hydropower—emerges as the most vulnerable. Reduced impacts of climate change on hydropower production under a low emissions scenario coincide with increased costs of marginal power generating capacity (low emissions requires greater uptake of clean generating technologies, which are more expensive). This means impacts on power sector investment costs are similar for high

  3. Driving forces: Motor vehicle trends and their implications for global warming, energy strategies, and transportation planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacKenzie, J.J.; Walsh, M.P.

    1990-01-01

    Cars, trucks, and other vehicles have long been linked to smog and other urban pollution, but the part they play in the larger complex of atmospheric and energy ills that we now face is often overlooked. In Driving Forces: Motor Vehicle Trends and Their Implications for Global Warming, Energy Strategies, and Transportation Planning, James J. MacKenzie, senior associate in World Resources Institute's Program in Climate, Energy, and Pollution, and Michael P. Walsh, an international consultant on transportation and environmental issues, fill in this knowledge gap with new data and analyses. They spell out four policy shifts that can help hold the line on global warming: improve new-vehicle efficiency; make transportation more efficient; cut other greenhouse gas emissions; create the green car of the future. The report focuses especially on the US, which pioneered the automotive revolution and leads the world in oil imports and emissions

  4. GLOBAL TRENDS OF ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan LUCHIAN

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available An alternative investment is an investment product other than the traditional investments of stocks, bonds, cash, or property. The term is a relatively loose one and includes tangible assets such as art, wine, antiques, coins, or stamps and some financial assets such as commodities, hedge funds, venture capital,and others. At the moment it was created a global industry opportunities for making investments in nontraditional form. The aim of this paper consists in demonstrating the possibilities of these investments. For this have been studied related main international markets, a fter then deducted world dominant trends. This article is concerned to present some details of alternative investments global market.

  5. Trends in truck freight energy use and carbon emissions in selected OECD countries from 1973 to 2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamakate, Fatumata; Schipper, Lee

    2009-01-01

    Trends in truck freight energy use and carbon emissions: In the age of global supply chains and 'just in time' logistics, fast and efficient goods movement is often seen as an economic imperative. Growth in global goods movement not only translates into growth in commercial trucking activity but also into growth in the share of trucking compared to other modes of in-country freight transportation. These trends have a significant impact on the energy intensity of freight transport. Using a bottom-up approach relying on national data, this study compares the energy intensity of truck freight in Australia, France, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States from 1973 to the present. The analysis builds on previous work by and decomposing energy use for freight. Intensity is expressed in terms of vehicle intensity (megajoules/vehicle-kilometer), modal energy intensity (megajoules/tonne-kilometer), and carbon intensity (grams/tonne-km). The cross-country comparison highlights in part the influence of geography, transportation infrastructure, and truck utilization patterns on energy and carbon intensity from this sector. While improving fuel economy of individual vehicles is very important, large reductions in trucking energy use and emissions will also come from better logistics and driving, higher load factors, and better matching of truck capacity to load.

  6. A probabilistic approach to examine the impacts of mitigation policies on future global PM emissions from on-road vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Bond, T. C.; Streets, D. G.

    2012-12-01

    There is deficiency in the determination of emission reduction potential in the future, especially with consideration of uncertainty. Mitigation measures for some economic sectors have been proposed, but few studies provide an evaluation of the amount of PM emission reduction that can be obtained in future years by different emission reduction strategies. We attribute the absence of helpful mitigation strategy analysis to limitations in the technical detail of future emission scenarios, which result in the inability to relate technological or regulatory intervention to emission changes. The purpose of this work is to provide a better understanding of the potential benefits of mitigation policies in addressing global and regional emissions. In this work, we introduce a probabilistic approach to explore the impacts of retrofit and scrappage on global PM emissions from on-road vehicles in the coming decades. This approach includes scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. A dynamic model of vehicle population linked to emission characteristics, SPEW-Trend, is used to estimate future emissions and make policy evaluations. Three basic questions will be answered in this work: (1) what contribution can these two programs make to improve global emissions in the future? (2) in which regions are such programs most and least effective in reducing emissions and what features of the vehicle fleet cause these results? (3) what is the level of confidence in the projected emission reductions, given uncertain parameters in describing the dynamic vehicle fleet?

  7. Future trends in global blindness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serge Resnikoff

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this review is to discuss the available data on the prevalence and causes of global blindness, and some of the associated trends and limitations seen. A literature search was conducted using the terms "global AND blindness" and "global AND vision AND impairment", resulting in seven appropriate articles for this review. Since 1990 the estimate of global prevalence of blindness has gradually decreased when considering the best corrected visual acuity definition: 0.71% in 1990, 0.59% in 2002, and 0.55% in 2010, corresponding to a 0.73% reduction per year over the 2002-2010 period. Significant limitations were found in the comparability between the global estimates in prevalence or causes of blindness or visual impairment. These limitations arise from various factors such as uncertainties about the true cause of the impairment, the use of different definitions and methods, and the absence of data from a number of geographical areas, leading to various extrapolation methods, which in turn seriously limit comparability. Seminal to this discussion on limitations in the comparability of studies and data, is that blindness has historically been defined using best corrected visual acuity.

  8. Self-organized global control of carbon emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zhenyuan; Fenn, Daniel J.; Hui, Pak Ming; Johnson, Neil F.

    2010-09-01

    There is much disagreement concerning how best to control global carbon emissions. We explore quantitatively how different control schemes affect the collective emission dynamics of a population of emitting entities. We uncover a complex trade-off which arises between average emissions (affecting the global climate), peak pollution levels (affecting citizens’ everyday health), industrial efficiency (affecting the nation’s economy), frequency of institutional intervention (affecting governmental costs), common information (affecting trading behavior) and market volatility (affecting financial stability). Our findings predict that a self-organized free-market approach at the level of a sector, state, country or continent can provide better control than a top-down regulated scheme in terms of market volatility and monthly pollution peaks. The control of volatility also has important implications for any future derivative carbon emissions market.

  9. Observed decrease in atmospheric mercury explained by global decline in anthropogenic emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanxu Zhang,; Daniel J. Jacob,; Hannah M. Horowitz,; Long Chen,; Helen M. Amos,; Krabbenhoft, David P.; Franz Slemr,; Vincent L. St. Louis,; Elsie M. Sunderland,

    2015-01-01

    Observations of elemental mercury (Hg0) at sites in North America and Europe show large decreases (∼1–2% y−1) from 1990 to present. Observations in background northern hemisphere air, including Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) aircraft flights, show weaker decreases (Asia. Implementation of our inventory in a global 3D atmospheric Hg simulation [GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry)] coupled to land and ocean reservoirs reproduces the observed large-scale trends in atmospheric Hg0 concentrations and in HgII wet deposition. The large trends observed in North America and Europe reflect the phase-out of Hg from commercial products as well as the cobenefit from SO2 and NOx emission controls on coal-fired utilities.

  10. Greenhouse gas emissions from Thailand’s transport sector: Trends and mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pongthanaisawan, Jakapong; Sorapipatana, Chumnong

    2013-01-01

    Rapid growth of population and economy during the past two decades has resulted in continuing growth of transport’s oil demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The objectives of this study are to examine pattern and growth in energy demand as well as related GHG emissions from the transport sector and to analyze potential pathways of energy demand and GHG emissions reduction from this sector of the measures being set by the Thai Government. A set of econometric models has been developed to estimate the historical trend of energy demand and GHG emissions in the transport sector during 1989–2007 and to forecast future trends to 2030. Two mitigation option scenarios of fuel switching and energy efficiency options have been designed to analyze pathways of energy consumption and GHG emissions reduction potential in Thailand’s transport sector compared with the baseline business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which assumed to do nothing influences the long-term trends of transport energy demand. It has been found that these two mitigation options can reduce the GHG emissions differently. The fuel-switching option could significantly reduce the amount of GHG emissions in a relatively short time frame, albeit it will be limited by its supply resources, whereas the energy efficiency option is more effective for GHG emissions mitigation in the long term. Therefore, both measures should be implemented simultaneously for both short and long term mitigation effects in order to more effectively achieve GHG emissions reduction target.

  11. Modeling Global Biogenic Emission of Isoprene: Exploration of Model Drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Susan E.; Potter, Christopher S.; Coughlan, Joseph C.; Klooster, Steven A.; Lerdau, Manuel T.; Chatfield, Robert B.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    Vegetation provides the major source of isoprene emission to the atmosphere. We present a modeling approach to estimate global biogenic isoprene emission. The isoprene flux model is linked to a process-based computer simulation model of biogenic trace-gas fluxes that operates on scales that link regional and global data sets and ecosystem nutrient transformations Isoprene emission estimates are determined from estimates of ecosystem specific biomass, emission factors, and algorithms based on light and temperature. Our approach differs from an existing modeling framework by including the process-based global model for terrestrial ecosystem production, satellite derived ecosystem classification, and isoprene emission measurements from a tropical deciduous forest. We explore the sensitivity of model estimates to input parameters. The resulting emission products from the global 1 degree x 1 degree coverage provided by the satellite datasets and the process model allow flux estimations across large spatial scales and enable direct linkage to atmospheric models of trace-gas transport and transformation.

  12. Mercury Emissions: The Global Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercury emissions are a global problem that knows no national or continental boundaries. Mercury that is emitted to the air can travel thousands of miles in the atmosphere before it is eventually deposited back to the earth.

  13. Speciation of anthropogenic emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds: a global gridded data set for 1970–2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Huang

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs include a large number of chemical species which differ significantly in their chemical characteristics and thus in their impacts on ozone and secondary organic aerosol formation. It is important that chemical transport models (CTMs simulate the chemical transformation of the different NMVOC species in the troposphere consistently. In most emission inventories, however, only total NMVOC emissions are reported, which need to be decomposed into classes to fit the requirements of CTMs. For instance, the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR provides spatially resolved global anthropogenic emissions of total NMVOCs. In this study the EDGAR NMVOC inventory was revised and extended in time and in sectors. Moreover the new version of NMVOC emission data in the EDGAR database were disaggregated on a detailed sector resolution to individual species or species groups, thus enhancing the usability of the NMVOC emission data by the modelling community. Region- and source-specific speciation profiles of NMVOC species or species groups are compiled and mapped to EDGAR processes (detailed resolution of sectors, with corresponding quality codes specifying the quality of the mapping. Individual NMVOC species in different profiles are aggregated to 25 species groups, in line with the common classification of the Global Emissions Initiative (GEIA. Global annual grid maps with a resolution of 0.1°  ×  0.1° for the period 1970–2012 are produced by sector and species. Furthermore, trends in NMVOC composition are analysed, taking road transport and residential sources in Germany and the United Kingdom (UK as examples.

  14. Air toxic emissions from burning of biomass globally-preliminary results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, D.E.; Hao, W.M.

    1992-01-01

    Emissions of trace gases, particles, and air toxic substances in the smoke plumes from biomass fires are of importance to global climate change. The potential impact of the air toxic emissions on the human population of specific regions globally is another major concern. The toxic materials are produced in high concentrations in areas of heavy biomass burning, e.g., Amazon Basin and Central/southern Africa. We provide new estimates of air toxics based on the combustion efficiency (percent of total carbon released as CO 2 ) for fires burning in different ecosystems on a global basis. Estimates of total biomass consumed on a global basis range from 2 to 10 Pg (1 petagram = 10 15 g) per year. We apply emission factors for various air toxics (g of emission released per kg of fuel consumed) to the estimate of global biomass consumption of 6.4 Pg per year. The principal air toxics analyzed in this paper include: Total particulate matter, CO, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, acrolein, benzene, toluene, o-xylene, m, p-xylene, benzo[a]pyrene, and polycyclic organic material. The total emissions calculated for these materials on a yearly global basis are: 75, 362, 4.9, 1.5, 1.5, 2.1, 2.1, 0.3, 0.6, 0.001, 0.026, Tg (1 teragram = 10 12 g) per year, respectively. Biomass burning in the United States contributes less than 3% to the total global emissions

  15. Global Occurrence and Emission of Rotaviruses to Surface Waters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas M. Kiulia

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Group A rotaviruses (RV are the major cause of acute gastroenteritis in infants and young children globally. Waterborne transmission of RV and the presence of RV in water sources are of major public health importance. In this paper, we present the Global Waterborne Pathogen model for RV (GloWPa-Rota model to estimate the global distribution of RV emissions to surface water. To our knowledge, this is the first model to do so. We review the literature to estimate three RV specific variables for the model: incidence, excretion rate and removal during wastewater treatment. We estimate total global RV emissions to be 2 × 1018 viral particles/grid/year, of which 87% is produced by the urban population. Hotspot regions with high RV emissions are urban areas in densely populated parts of the world, such as Bangladesh and Nigeria, while low emissions are found in rural areas in North Russia and the Australian desert. Even for industrialized regions with high population density and without tertiary treatment, such as the UK, substantial emissions are estimated. Modeling exercises like the one presented in this paper provide unique opportunities to further study these emissions to surface water, their sources and scenarios for improved management.

  16. Global CO{sub 2} emissions 2015. Trend reversion is still waiting, despite hopeful approaches; Weltweite CO{sub 2}-Emissionen 2015. Trendwende laesst trotz hoffnungsvoller Ansaetze nach wie vor auf sich warten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ziesing, Hans-Joachim

    2016-10-15

    By 2015, global CO{sub 2} emissions were virtually unchanged from 2014 according to provisional calculations. On the whole, a slight increase may have resulted, which has slowed the growth of the past few years. In the previous year alone, the weakest growth since the beginning of the century had been recorded, with only 0.7% of the upturn (with the exception of the crises in 2008/2009). As a result, CO{sub 2} emissions in 2015 were only slightly higher than in the previous year, at 33.1 billion tonnes. A global trend reversal is still likely, but the CO{sub 2} emissions have declined in many countries, particularly in some industrialized countries. [German] Im Jahr 2015 haben sich die weltweiten CO{sub 2}-Emissionen nach vorlaeufigen Berechnungen gegenueber 2014 praktisch nicht veraendert. Insgesamt duerfte sich allenfalls ein leichtes Plus ergeben haben, womit der Zuwachs der vergangenen Jahre erneut gebremst wurde. Schon im Vorjahr war mit einem Plus von nur 0,7 % der bis dahin (mit Ausnahme der Krisenjahre 2008/2009) schwaechste Anstieg seit Beginn des Jahrhunderts zu verzeichnen gewesen. Im Ergebnis blieben die CO{sub 2}-Emissionen 2015 mit reichlich 33,1 Mrd. t nur geringfuegig ueber dem Niveau des Vorjahres. Eine weltweite Trendwende steht wohl noch nach wie vor aus, doch sind immerhin die CO{sub 2}-Emissionen in zahlreichen Laendern, insbesondere in etlichen Industrielaendern, gesunken.

  17. The sectoral trends of multigas emissions inventory of India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garg, A.; Shukla, P.R.; Kapshe, M.

    2006-01-01

    This paper provides the trends of greenhouse gas (GHG) and local air pollutant emissions of India for 1985-2005. The GHGs covered are six Kyoto gases, namely carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6...... in the same sector is the major source of N2O emissions. PFC emissions are dominated by C2F6 and CF4 emissions from aluminum production. The majority of HFC emissions are contributed by HFC-23, a by-product during the production of HCFC-22 that is widely used in refrigeration industry. CO emissions have...... dominance from biomass burning. Particulate emissions are dominated by biomass burning (residential sector), road transport and coal combustion in large plants. These varied emission patterns provide interesting policy links and disjoints, such as-which and where mitigation flexibility for the Kyoto gases...

  18. Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogelj, Joeri; Riahi, Keywan; Schaeffer, Michiel; Hare, William; Meinshausen, Malte; Knutti, Reto; Alcamo, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO 2 ). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO 2 emissions at some point. Policymakers have now incorporated this concept in the negotiating text for a new global climate agreement, but confusion remains about concepts like carbon neutrality, climate neutrality, full decarbonization, and net zero carbon or net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here we clarify these concepts, discuss their appropriateness to serve as a long-term global benchmark for achieving temperature targets, and provide a detailed quantification. We find that with current pledges and for a likely (>66%) chance of staying below 2 °C, the scenario literature suggests net zero CO 2 emissions between 2060 and 2070, with net negative CO 2 emissions thereafter. Because of residual non-CO 2 emissions, net zero is always reached later for total GHG emissions than for CO 2 . Net zero emissions targets are a useful focal point for policy, linking a global temperature target and socio-economic pathways to a necessary long-term limit on cumulative CO 2 emissions. (letter)

  19. The global distribution of ammonia emissions from seabird colonies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riddick, S. N.; Dragosits, U.; Blackall, T. D.; Daunt, F.; Wanless, S.; Sutton, M. A.

    2012-08-01

    Seabird colonies represent a significant source of atmospheric ammonia (NH3) in remote maritime systems, producing a source of nitrogen that may encourage plant growth, alter terrestrial plant community composition and affect the surrounding marine ecosystem. To investigate seabird NH3 emissions on a global scale, we developed a contemporary seabird database including a total seabird population of 261 million breeding pairs. We used this in conjunction with a bioenergetics model to estimate the mass of nitrogen excreted by all seabirds at each breeding colony. The results combined with the findings of mid-latitude field studies of volatilization rates estimate the global distribution of NH3 emissions from seabird colonies on an annual basis. The largest uncertainty in our emission estimate concerns the potential temperature dependence of NH3 emission. To investigate this we calculated and compared temperature independent emission estimates with a maximum feasible temperature dependent emission, based on the thermodynamic dissociation and solubility equilibria. Using the temperature independent approach, we estimate global NH3 emissions from seabird colonies at 404 Gg NH3 per year. By comparison, since most seabirds are located in relatively cold circumpolar locations, the thermodynamically dependent estimate is 136 Gg NH3 per year. Actual global emissions are expected to be within these bounds, as other factors, such as non-linear interactions with water availability and surface infiltration, moderate the theoretical temperature response. Combining sources of error from temperature (±49%), seabird population estimates (±36%), variation in diet composition (±23%) and non-breeder attendance (±13%), gives a mid estimate with an overall uncertainty range of NH3 emission from seabird colonies of 270 [97-442] Gg NH3 per year. These emissions are environmentally relevant as they primarily occur as "hot-spots" in otherwise pristine environments with low anthropogenic

  20. The energy-climate challenge: Recent trends in CO2 emissions from fuel combustion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quadrelli, Roberta; Peterson, Sierra

    2007-01-01

    Fossil fuel combustion is the single largest human influence on climate, accounting for 80% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. This paper presents trends in world carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from fossil fuel combustion worldwide, based on the estimates of the International Energy Agency (IEA) [IEA, 2006a. CO 2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 1971-2004. International Energy Agency, Paris, France]. Analyzing the drivers of CO 2 emissions, the paper considers regions, types of fuel, sectors, and socio-economic indicators. The paper then examines the growing body of climate change mitigation policies and measures, both multinational and federal. Policies discussed include the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme, and the potential measures to be implemented in 2012 and beyond. CO 2 emissions of recent years have grown at the highest rates ever recorded, an observed trend incompatible with stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and avoiding long-term climate change. Within this aggregate upward trend, a comparison of emissions sources proves dynamic: while industrialized countries have so far dominated historical emissions, rapid growth in energy demand of developing economies, led by China, may soon spur their absolute emissions beyond those of industrialized countries. To provide context for the drivers of CO 2 emissions, the paper examines fuel sources, from coal to biofuels, and fuel use in the production of heat and electricity, in transport, in industrial production and in households. The sectoral analysis illustrates the primacy, in terms of emissions growth and absolute emissions, of two sectors: electricity and heat generation, and transport. A discussion of several socio-economic emissions drivers complements the paper's analysis of mitigation mechanisms. As illustrated, emissions per capita and emissions per unit of economic production, as measured in gross domestic product (GDP), vary widely between

  1. EDGARv4 Gridded Anthropogenic Emissions of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) from Power Generation, Residential and Transport Sectors: Regional Trends Analysis in East Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muntean, M.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Guizzardi, D.; Crippa, M.; Schaaf, E.; Olivier, J. G.; Dentener, F. J.

    2016-12-01

    Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are toxic substances and so harmful for human health. Mitigation of these emissions are internationally addressed by the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution and by the Stockholm Convention. A global insight on POPs emissions evolution is essential since they can be transported long distances, they bio-accumulate and damage the environment. The Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4) is currently updated with POPs. We have estimated the global emissions of Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), Polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) (benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), benzo[b]fluoranthene (BbF), benzo[k]fluoranthene (BkF), Indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene (IcdP)) and Hexachlorobenzene (HCB) from fuel combustion in the power generation, residential and transport sectors. This emissions inventory has been developed by using as input to the EDGAR technology-based emissions calculation algorithm the fossil fuel consumption data from International Energy Agency (2014) and the emission factors from EMEP/EEA (2013). We provide a complete emission time series for the period 1970-2010 and discuss the trends. A comprehensive analysis of the contribution of East Asia region to the total global will be provided for each substance of the POPs group. An example is presented in Figure 1 for BaP emissions from residential sector; with emissions mainly from China, the East Asia region has a great share (32%) in the total global. We distributed the POPs emissions on gridmaps of 0.1°x0.1° resolution. Areas with high emissions in East Asia will be presented and discussed; Figure 2 shows the hot-spots in East Asia for BaP emissions from the residential sector. These emission gridmaps, used as input for the chemical transport models, contribute to the improvement of impact evaluation, which is a key element in measuring the effectiveness of mitigation

  2. Seasonal trends of biogenic terpene emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helmig, Detlev; Daly, Ryan Woodfin; Milford, Jana; Guenther, Alex

    2013-09-01

    Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions from six coniferous tree species, i.e. Pinus ponderosa (Ponderosa Pine), Picea pungens (Blue Spruce), Pseudotsuga menziesii (Rocky Mountain Douglas Fir) and Pinus longaeva (Bristlecone Pine), as well as from two deciduous species, Quercus gambelii (Gamble Oak) and Betula occidentalis (Western River Birch) were studied over a full annual growing cycle. Monoterpene (MT) and sesquiterpene (SQT) emissions rates were quantified in a total of 1236 individual branch enclosure samples. MT dominated coniferous emissions, producing greater than 95% of BVOC emissions. MT and SQT demonstrated short-term emission dependence with temperature. Two oxygenated MT, 1,8-cineol and piperitone, were both light and temperature dependent. Basal emission rates (BER, normalized to 1000μmolm(-2)s(-1) and 30°C) were generally higher in spring and summer than in winter; MT seasonal BER from the coniferous trees maximized between 1.5 and 6.0μgg(-1)h(-1), while seasonal lows were near 0.1μgg(-1)h(-1). The fractional contribution of individual MT to total emissions was found to fluctuate with season. SQT BER measured from the coniferous trees ranged from emissions modeling, was not found to exhibit discernible growth season trends. A seasonal correction factor proposed by others in previous work to account for a sinusoidal shaped emission pattern was applied to the data. Varying levels of agreement were found between the data and model results for the different plant species seasonal data sets using this correction. Consequently, the analyses on this extensive data set suggest that it is not feasible to apply a universal seasonal correction factor across different vegetation species. A modeling exercise comparing two case scenarios, (1) without and (2) with consideration of the seasonal changes in emission factors illustrated large deviations when emission factors are applied for other seasons than those in which they were experimentally

  3. Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends report is the authoritative reference for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions,...

  4. Atmospheric stabilization of CO2 emissions: Near-term reductions and absolute versus intensity-based targets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timilsina, Govinda R.

    2008-01-01

    This study analyzes CO 2 emissions reduction targets for various countries and geopolitical regions by the year 2030 to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 at 450 ppm (550 ppm including non-CO 2 greenhouse gases) level. It also determines CO 2 intensity cuts that would be required in those countries and regions if the emission reductions were to be achieved through intensity-based targets without curtailing their expected economic growth. Considering that the stabilization of CO 2 concentrations at 450 ppm requires the global trend of CO 2 emissions to be reversed before 2030, this study develops two scenarios: reversing the global CO 2 trend in (i) 2020 and (ii) 2025. The study shows that global CO 2 emissions would be limited at 42 percent above 1990 level in 2030 if the increasing trend of global CO 2 emissions were to be reversed by 2020. If reversing the trend is delayed by 5 years, global CO 2 emissions in 2030 would be 52 percent higher than the 1990 level. The study also finds that to achieve these targets while maintaining expected economic growth, the global average CO 2 intensity would require a 68 percent drop from the 1990 level or a 60 percent drop from the 2004 level by 2030

  5. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E

    2015-08-11

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.

  6. Transport and Environment Database System (TRENDS): Maritime Air Pollutant Emission Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Georgakaki, Aliki; Coffey, R. A.; Lock, G.

    2003-01-01

    This paper reports the development of the maritime module within the framework of the TRENDS project. A detailed database has been constructed, which includes all stages of the energy consumption and air pollutant emission calculations. The technical assumptions and factors incorporated in the da...... ¿ short sea or deep-sea shipping. Key Words: Air Pollution, Maritime Transport, Air Pollutant Emissions......This paper reports the development of the maritime module within the framework of the TRENDS project. A detailed database has been constructed, which includes all stages of the energy consumption and air pollutant emission calculations. The technical assumptions and factors incorporated...... encountered since the statistical data collection was not undertaken with a view to this purpose are mentioned. Examples of the results obtained by the database are presented. These include detailed air pollutant emission results per port and vessel type, to aggregate results for different types of movements...

  7. Global emissions inventories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dignon, J.

    1995-07-01

    Atmospheric chemistry determines the concentrations of most of the important greenhouse gases except for carbon dioxide. The rate of removal of the greenhouse gases from the atmosphere is also controlled by atmospheric chemistry. The indirect effects of chemical forcing resulting from the chemical interactions of other species can also affect the concentrations of radiatively important gases such as ozone. In order to establish the contribution of any possible climatic change attributable to individual greenhouse gases, spatially and temporally resolved estimates of their emissions need to be established. Unfortunately, for most of the radiatively important species the global magnitudes of their individual fluxes are not known to better than a factor of two and their spatial distributions are even more poorly characterized. Efforts to estimate future projections of potential impacts and to monitor international agreements will require continued research to narrow the uncertainties of magnitude and geographical distribution of emissions

  8. Monthly, global emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel consumption

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andres, R. J.; Marland, G.; Boden, T. A. (Environmental Sciences Div., Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)), e-mail: andresrj@ornl.gov; Gregg, J. S. (Risoe DTU National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Roskilde (Denmark)); Losey, L. (Dept. of Space Studies, Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND (United States))

    2011-07-15

    This paper examines available data, develops a strategy and presents a monthly, global time series of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions for the years 1950-2006. This monthly time series was constructed from detailed study of monthly data from the 21 countries that account for approximately 80% of global total emissions. These data were then used in a Monte Carlo approach to proxy for all remaining countries. The proportional-proxy methodology estimates by fuel group the fraction of annual emissions emitted in each country and month. Emissions from solid, liquid and gas fuels are explicitly modelled by the proportional-proxy method. The primary conclusion from this study is the global monthly time series is statistically significantly different from a uniform distribution throughout the year. Uncertainty analysis of the data presented show that the proportional-proxy method used faithfully reproduces monthly patterns in the data and the global monthly pattern of emissions is relatively insensitive to the exact proxy assignments used. The data and results presented here should lead to a better understanding of global and regional carbon cycles, especially when the mass data are combined with the stable carbon isotope data in atmospheric transport models

  9. Global change integrating factors: Tropical tropopause trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reck, R.A.

    1994-01-01

    This research proposes new criteria, shifts in the height and temperature of the tropical tropopause, as measures of global climate change. The search for signs of global warming in the temperature signal near the earth's surface is extremely difficult, largely because numerous factors contribute to surface temperature forcing with only a small signal-to-noise ratio relative to long-term effects. In the long term, no part of the atmosphere can be considered individually because the evolution will be a function of all states of all portions. A large surface greenhouse signal might ultimately be expected, but the analysis of surface temperature may not be particularly useful for early detection. What is suggested here is not an analysis of trends in the surface temperature field or any of its spatial averages, but rather an integrating factor or integrator, a single measure of global change that could be considered a test of significant change for the entire global system. Preferably, this global change integrator would vary slowly and would take into account many of the causes of climate change, with a relatively large signal-to-noise ratio. Such an integrator could be monitored, and abrupt or accelerated changes could serve as an early warning signal for policy makers and the public. Earlier work has suggested that temperature has much less short-term and small-scale noise in the lower stratosphere, and thus the global warming signal at that level might be more easily deconvoluted, because the cooling rate near the 200-mb level is almost constant with latitude. A study of the temperature signal at this pressure level might show a clearer trend due to increased levels of greenhouse gases, but it would yield information about the troposphere only by inference

  10. Trends in emissions of acidifying species in Asia, 1985-1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Streets, D. G.; Tsai, N. Y.; Akimoto, H.; Oka, K.

    2000-01-01

    Acid deposition is a serious problem throughout much of Asia. Emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) and nitrogen oxides (NO x ) have been increasing steadily, as nations strive to increase their levels of economic development. Coal and fuel oil have been the main choices for powering industrial development; and, until recently, only a few countries (notably Japan and Taiwan) had taken significant steps to avert the atmospheric emissions that accompany fuel combustion. This paper discusses trends in emissions of SO 2 and NO x that have occurred in Asian countries in the period 1985--1997, using results from the RAINS-ASIA computer model and energy-use trends from the IEA Energy Statistics and Balances database. Emissions of SO 2 in Asia grew from 26.6 Tg in 1985 to 33.7 Tg in 1990 and to 39.2 Tg in 1997. Though SO 2 emissions used to grow as fast as fossil-fuel use, recent limitations on the sulfur content of coal and oil have slowed the growth. The annual-average emissions growth between 1990 and 1997 was only 1.1%, considerably less than the economic growth rate. Emissions of NO x , on the other hand, continue to grow rapidly, from 14.1 Tg in 1985 to 18.7 Tg in 1990 and 28.5 Tg in 1997, with no signs of abating. Thus, though SO 2 remains the major contributor to acidifying emissions in Asia, the role of NO x , will become more and more important in the future

  11. Sulfur dioxide emissions in China and sulfur trends in East Asia since 2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Lu

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available With the rapid development of the economy, the sulfur dioxide (SO2 emission from China since 2000 is of increasing concern. In this study, we estimate the annual SO2 emission in China after 2000 using a technology-based methodology specifically for China. From 2000 to 2006, total SO2 emission in China increased by 53%, from 21.7 Tg to 33.2 Tg, at an annual growth rate of 7.3%. Emissions from power plants are the main sources of SO2 in China and they increased from 10.6 Tg to 18.6 Tg in the same period. Geographically, emission from north China increased by 85%, whereas that from the south increased by only 28%. The emission growth rate slowed around 2005, and emissions began to decrease after 2006 mainly due to the wide application of flue-gas desulfurization (FGD devices in power plants in response to a new policy of China's government. This paper shows that the trend of estimated SO2 emission in China is consistent with the trends of SO2 concentration and acid rain pH and frequency in China, as well as with the increasing trends of background SO2 and sulfate concentration in East Asia. A longitudinal gradient in the percentage change of urban SO2 concentration in Japan is found during 2000–2007, indicating that the decrease of urban SO2 is lower in areas close to the Asian continent. This implies that the transport of increasing SO2 from the Asian continent partially counteracts the local reduction of SO2 emission downwind. The aerosol optical depth (AOD products of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS are found to be highly correlated with the surface solar radiation (SSR measurements in East Asia. Using MODIS AOD data as a surrogate of SSR, we found that China and East Asia excluding Japan underwent a continuous dimming after 2000, which is in line with the dramatic increase in SO2 emission in

  12. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L. E.

    2015-01-01

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary. PMID:26259555

  13. Global health impacts and costs due to mercury emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spadaro, Joseph V; Rabl, Ari

    2008-06-01

    Since much of the emission is in the form of metallic Hg whose atmospheric residence time is long enough to cause nearly uniform mixing in the hemisphere, much of the impact is global. This article presents a first estimate of global average neurotoxic impacts and costs by defining a comprehensive transfer factor for ingestion of methyl-Hg as ratio of global average dose rate and global emission rate. For the dose-response function (DRF) we use recent estimates of IQ decrement as function of Hg concentration in blood, as well as correlations between blood concentration and Hg ingestion. The cost of an IQ point is taken as $18,000 in the United States and applied in other countries in proportion to per capita GDP, adjusted for purchase power parity. The mean estimate of the global average of the marginal damage cost per emitted kg of Hg is about $1,500/kg, if one assumes a dose threshold of 6.7 mug/day of methyl-Hg per person, and $3,400/kg without threshold. The average global lifetime impact and cost per person at current emission levels are 0.02 IQ points lost and $78 with and 0.087 IQ points and $344 without threshold. These results are global averages; for any particular source and emission site the impacts can be quite different. An assessment of the overall uncertainties indicates that the damage cost could be a factor 4 smaller or larger than the median estimate (the uncertainty distribution is approximately log normal and the ratio median/mean is approximately 0.4).

  14. Trends in coal use - global, EU and Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suwała, Wojciech; Wyrwa, Artur; Olkuski, Tadeusz

    2017-11-01

    That aim of this paper is to compare trends in global, European use of coal with tendencies in Poland, one of heavy coal dependent countries. Polish power generation is unique among OECD countries, the share of both hard coal and lignite in power generation reaches 81% [1]. Climate policy of European Union is to phase out intensive greenhouse gases sectors, thus to transform Polish power generation into less carbon intensive. Although such policy is generally accepted in Poland, the paste and practically proposed regulation that excludes coal generation from capacity mechanisms, is considered as threat to energy security. Coal is the base for generation for one simple reason, abundant in European scale hard coal reserves and significant capacities in lignite. Natural gas reserves allow to supply about 1/3 of consumption, but prices and supplies dependent hitherto on contracts with GAZPROM did not allow to develop significant generation capacities. Renewable resources are limited, there is not much possibilities for hydro, wind and solar. Poland is also one of the countries of poor air quality, traditional coal based space heating systems plus obsolete car fleet generate vast emissions, especially during the winter. Only recently this became top priority of environmental authorities. This situation is subject to transformation, government, managers are aware that the role of coal needs to be decreased, but there are two main questions, the paste of transformation and the future energy mix. The paper attempts to answer the question whether the expected changes in Polish energy mix are comparable or differ from the global and European tendencies.

  15. Digital Library Education: Global Trends and Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shem, Magaji

    2015-01-01

    The paper examines trends and issues in digital education programmes globally, drawing examples of developmental growth of Library Information Science (LIS), schools and digital education courses in North America, Britain, and Southern Asia, the slow growth of LIS schools and digital education in Nigeria and some countries in Africa and India. The…

  16. Using global warming potential to compare methane and CO2 emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dufresne, J.L.

    2009-01-01

    Greenhouse gases affect the planetary heat budget. Any change of their concentration affects this budget and therefore the global mean surface temperature of the Earth. These gases have different radiative properties and different lifetimes in the atmosphere, which prevents any direct comparison of the consequences of their emissions on global warming. Almost twenty years ago, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposed the global warming potential (GWP) as an index to compare the emissions of the various greenhouse gases. In a recent paper, it has been stated that the use of GWP leads to strongly underestimating the global warming due to constant methane emissions compared to that of constant CO 2 emissions. Here we show that it is not really the case. The GWP enables comparisons of global warming due to constant emissions for any prescribed period, 100 years being often used. But this comparison is not universal. For instance, the impact of methane is underestimated at the beginning of the chosen period while the impact of CO 2 is underestimated after this period

  17. New global fire emission estimates and evaluation of volatile organic compounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Wiedinmyer; L. K. Emmons; S. K. Akagi; R. J. Yokelson; J. J. Orlando; J. A. Al-Saadi; A. J. Soja

    2010-01-01

    A daily, high-resolution, global fire emissions model has been built to estimate emissions from open burning for air quality modeling applications: The Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN version 1). The model framework uses daily fire detections from the MODIS instruments and updated emission factors, specifically for speciated non-methane organic compounds (NMOC). Global...

  18. CO2 emission calculations and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boden, T.A.; Marland, G.; Andres, R.J.

    1995-01-01

    Evidence that the atmospheric CO 2 concentration has risen during the past several decades is irrefutable. Most of the observed increase in atmospheric CO 2 is believed to result from CO 2 releases from fossil-fuel burning. The United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), signed in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992, reflects global concern over the increasing CO 2 concentration and its potential impact on climate. One of the convention's stated objectives was the ''stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. '' Specifically, the FCCC asked all 154 signing countries to conduct an inventory of their current greenhouse gas emissions, and it set nonbinding targets for some countries to control emissions by stabilizing them at 1990 levels by the year 2000. Given the importance of CO 2 as a greenhouse gas, the relationship between CO 2 emissions and increases in atmospheric CO 2 levels, and the potential impacts of a greenhouse gas-induced climate change; it is important that comprehensive CO 2 emissions records be compiled, maintained, updated, and documented

  19. EU effect: Exporting emission standards for vehicles through the global market economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crippa, M; Janssens-Maenhout, G; Guizzardi, D; Galmarini, S

    2016-12-01

    Emission data from EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research), rather than economic data, are used to estimate the effect of policies and of the global exports of policy-regulated goods, such as vehicles, on global emissions. The results clearly show that the adoption of emission standards for the road transport sector in the two main global markets (Europe and North America) has led to the global proliferation of emission-regulated vehicles through exports, regardless the domestic regulation in the country of destination. It is in fact more economically convenient for vehicle manufacturers to produce and sell a standard product to the widest possible market and in the greatest possible amounts. The EU effect (European Union effect) is introduced as a global counterpart to the California effect. The former is a direct consequence of the penetration of the EURO standards in the global markets by European and Japanese manufacturers, which effectively export the standard worldwide. We analyze the effect on PM 2.5 emissions by comparing a scenario of non-EURO standards against the current estimates provided by EDGAR. We find that PM 2.5 emissions were reduced by more than 60% since the 1990s worldwide. Similar investigations on other pollutants confirm the hypothesis that the combined effect of technological regulations and their diffusion through global markets can also produce a positive effect on the global environment. While we acknowledge the positive feedback, we also demonstrate that current efforts and standards will be totally insufficient should the passenger car fleets in emerging markets reach Western per capita figures. If emerging countries reach the per capita vehicle number of the USA and Europe under current technological conditions, then the world will suffer pre-1990 emission levels. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. HIV/AIDS: global trends, global funds and delivery bottlenecks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hadingham Jacqui

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Globalisation affects all facets of human life, including health and well being. The HIV/AIDS epidemic has highlighted the global nature of human health and welfare and globalisation has given rise to a trend toward finding common solutions to global health challenges. Numerous international funds have been set up in recent times to address global health challenges such as HIV. However, despite increasingly large amounts of funding for health initiatives being made available to poorer regions of the world, HIV infection rates and prevalence continue to increase world wide. As a result, the AIDS epidemic is expanding and intensifying globally. Worst affected are undoubtedly the poorer regions of the world as combinations of poverty, disease, famine, political and economic instability and weak health infrastructure exacerbate the severe and far-reaching impacts of the epidemic. One of the major reasons for the apparent ineffectiveness of global interventions is historical weaknesses in the health systems of underdeveloped countries, which contribute to bottlenecks in the distribution and utilisation of funds. Strengthening these health systems, although a vital component in addressing the global epidemic, must however be accompanied by mitigation of other determinants as well. These are intrinsically complex and include social and environmental factors, sexual behaviour, issues of human rights and biological factors, all of which contribute to HIV transmission, progression and mortality. An equally important factor is ensuring an equitable balance between prevention and treatment programmes in order to holistically address the challenges presented by the epidemic.

  1. Quantifying the Global Marine Biogenic Nitrogen Oxides Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, H.; Wang, S.; Lin, J.; Hao, N.; Poeschl, U.; Cheng, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are among the most important molecules in atmospheric chemistry and nitrogen cycle. The NOx over the ocean areas are traditionally believed to originate from the continental outflows or the inter-continental shipping emissions. By comparing the satellite observations (OMI) and global chemical transport model simulation (GEOS-Chem), we suggest that the underestimated modeled atmospheric NO2 columns over biogenic active ocean areas can be possibly attributed to the biogenic source. Nitrification and denitrification in the ocean water produces nitrites which can be further reduced to NO through microbiological processes. We further report global distributions of marine biogenic NO emissions. The new added emissions improve the agreement between satellite observations and model simulations over large areas. Our model simulations manifest that the marine biogenic NO emissions increase the atmospheric oxidative capacity and aerosol formation rate, providing a closer link between atmospheric chemistry and ocean microbiology.

  2. 50% REDUCTION IN GLOBAL GHG EMISSION BY 2050 AND ITS IMPLICATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujimori, Shinichiro; Masui, Toshihiko; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

    To prevent the global temperature increase by two degrees, global greenhouse gas emission in 2050 should be cut by half relative to its 1990 level. This study shows following three things by using multi regions and sectors recursive dynamic type computable general equilibrium model. One is the feasibility of that global emission target. The others are the counter measures and the impact on the macro economy, if that target were feasible. In addition, the scenarios with and without international emission trading are implemented and the effect of the trading is analyzed. As a result, that target can be achieved. The marginal abatement cost is 750/tCO2-eq in 2050. Energy efficiency improvement, renewable energy and carbon capture and storage technologies are the main players as counter measures. If the emission trading is available freely, GDP loss is 4.5% globally in 2050. Otherwise, the loss is increased to 6.1%. The emission trading mechanism is also one of the important measures.

  3. Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe: a retrospective trend analysis for the period 1990-2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Borgan, A.; Gugele, B.; Haider, S. (Umweltbundesamt, Vienna (Austria)) (and others)

    2011-10-15

    This report presents a retrospective overview of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends in Europe from 1990 to 2008, with a particular focus on the underpinning drivers and the influence of EU policies. The analysis is based on the combination of decomposition analyses to identify the respective influence of each identified driver and an overview of the main EU policies and their likely effects on these drivers. The period covered by the analysis stops in 2008. As a result, the analysis avoids the effects of the recent economic crisis on GHG emissions. This reinforces the conclusion on long-term emission drivers. The report covers the EU-27 and presents results for the other EEA member countries (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland and Turkey) and Croatia (EU candidate country together with Turkey) as far as data is available. The results can be summarized as: 1) Overall GHG emission trends. EU GHG emissions were reduced between 1990 and 2008. Most of the reductions took place in the 1990s, but emissions have also been decreasing every year from 2003 until the last year considered in this report, 2008. 2) Predominant drivers. For the most part, the GHG emission trends observed in the EU between 1990 and 2008 resulted from economic factors. However, EU policies, some of which were not directly targeting GHG emissions, as well as national policies by some front runner countries, also played a role in these trends. 3) Impacts of EU policies. Between 2000 and 2008, emission trends were more directly targeted by a range of energy and climate policies, e.g. the implementation of the European Climate Change programme. However, the steady increase in energy demand during this period - particularly electricity - outweighed the considerable EU-wide savings generated by energy efficiency improvements and the development of renewable energy. 4) Co-benefits. Taking example from the positive benefits on GHG emissions that resulted from the implementation of non

  4. Impact of Emissions and Long-Range Transport on Multi-Decadal Aerosol Trends: Implications for Air Quality and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, Mian

    2012-01-01

    We present a global model analysis of the impact of long-range transport and anthropogenic emissions on the aerosol trends in the major pollution regions in the northern hemisphere and in the Arctic in the past three decades. We will use the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model to analyze the multi-spatial and temporal scale data, including observations from Terra, Aqua, and CALIPSO satellites and from the long-term surface monitoring stations. We will analyze the source attribution (SA) and source-receptor (SR) relationships in North America, Europe, East Asia, South Asia, and the Arctic at the surface and free troposphere and establish the quantitative linkages between emissions from different source regions. We will discuss the implications for regional air quality and climate change.

  5. Monthly, global emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andres, R.J.; Gregg, Jay Sterling; Losey, L.

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines available data, develops a strategy and presents a monthly, global time series of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions for the years 1950–2006. This monthly time series was constructed from detailed study of monthly data from the 21 countries that account for approximately 80......% of global total emissions. These data were then used in a Monte Carlo approach to proxy for all remaining countries. The proportional-proxy methodology estimates by fuel group the fraction of annual emissions emitted in each country and month. Emissions from solid, liquid and gas fuels are explicitly...

  6. Negative emissions from stopping deforestation and forest degradation, globally.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houghton, Richard A; Nassikas, Alexander A

    2018-01-01

    Forest growth provides negative emissions of carbon that could help keep the earth's surface temperature from exceeding 2°C, but the global potential is uncertain. Here we use land-use information from the FAO and a bookkeeping model to calculate the potential negative emissions that would result from allowing secondary forests to recover. We find the current gross carbon sink in forests recovering from harvests and abandoned agriculture to be -4.4 PgC/year, globally. The sink represents the potential for negative emissions if positive emissions from deforestation and wood harvest were eliminated. However, the sink is largely offset by emissions from wood products built up over the last century. Accounting for these committed emissions, we estimate that stopping deforestation and allowing secondary forests to grow would yield cumulative negative emissions between 2016 and 2100 of about 120 PgC, globally. Extending the lifetimes of wood products could potentially remove another 10 PgC from the atmosphere, for a total of approximately 130 PgC, or about 13 years of fossil fuel use at today's rate. As an upper limit, the estimate is conservative. It is based largely on past and current practices. But if greater negative emissions are to be realized, they will require an expansion of forest area, greater efficiencies in converting harvested wood to long-lasting products and sources of energy, and novel approaches for sequestering carbon in soils. That is, they will require current management practices to change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. A half-century of production-phase greenhouse gas emissions from food loss & waste in the global food supply chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Stephen D; Reay, David S; Higgins, Peter; Bomberg, Elizabeth

    2016-11-15

    Research on loss & waste of food meant for human consumption (FLW) and its environmental impact typically focuses on a single or small number of commodities in a specific location and point in time. However, it is unclear how trends in global FLW and potential for climate impact have evolved. Here, by utilising the Food and Agriculture Organization's food balance sheet data, we expand upon existing literature. Firstly, we provide a differentiated (by commodity, country and supply chain stage) bottom-up approach; secondly, we conduct a 50-year longitudinal analysis of global FLW and its production-phase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; and thirdly, we trace food wastage and its associated emissions through the entire food supply chain. Between 1961 and 2011 the annual amount of FLW by mass grew a factor of three - from 540Mt to 1.6Gt; associated production-phase (GHG) emissions more than tripled (from 680Mt to 2.2Gt CO2e). A 44% increase in global average per capita FLW emissions was also identified - from 225kg CO2e in 1961 to 323kg CO2e in 2011. The regional weighting within this global average changing markedly over time; in 1961 developed countries accounted for 48% of FLW and less than a quarter (24%) in 2011. The largest increases in FLW-associated GHG emissions were from developing economies, specifically China and Latin America - primarily from increasing losses in fruit and vegetables. Over the period examined, cumulatively such emissions added almost 68Gt CO2e to the atmospheric GHG stock; an amount the rough equivalent of two years of emissions from all anthropogenic sources at present rates. Building up from the most granular data available, this study highlights the growth in the climate burden of FLW emissions, and thus the need to improve efficiency in food supply chains to mitigate future emissions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Influence of economic factors on future global emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffey, R.B.; Poehnell, T.G.; Miller, A.I.; Tamm, J.A.

    2001-01-01

    The climate change debate is really about economics, and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate change potential at a reasonable and acceptable cost for everyone. In this paper, we examine the major economic factors behind defining climate change policies that relate to reducing GHG emissions, and the value to be placed on CO 2 . We examine the impacts and the 'cost of carbon' based on the studies of GHG reduction strategies in the US and the European Union (EU). We show that a series of self-defeating assumptions have been used in the latest analyses regarding relative future energy and power costs, and hence future GHG emissions. We estimate: the 'natural value' of GHG emissions based on world economic factors, the value of electricity and energy based on world data, the cost advantage of using a given new technology, and the value of avoided GHG emissions in future global and national climate change projections. The use of electricity is shown to be key in aiding economic growth for the entire world. Using the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2000 climate change projections as a base, we reflect the impacts of differing energy prices on future global climate conditions and GHG reductions. We conduct a similar analysis for Canada using the latest 'Energy in Canada 2000' projections. We show how the use of advanced technology for the traditional production of electricity, and for hydrogen-based transportation fuels, can stabilize global emissions and assist in managing adverse climate change conditions without causing economic penalties. The method we develop is sufficiently general that it can be used for valuing the economic impact of the emission reductions for any technology. We estimate the embedded value and potential economic benefit of nuclear technology and electric contribution for both the world economy to 2100, and for the latest projections for Canada to 2020. (author)

  9. Act locally, trade globally. Emissions trading for climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none

    2005-07-01

    Climate policy raises a number of challenges for the energy sector, the most significant being the transition from a high to a low-CO2 energy path in a few decades. Emissions trading has become the instrument of choice to help manage the cost of this transition, whether used at international or at domestic level. Act Locally, Trade Globally, offers an overview of existing trading systems, their mechanisms, and looks into the future of the instrument for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Are current markets likely to be as efficient as the theory predicts? What is, if any, the role of governments in these markets? Can domestic emissions trading systems be broadened to activities other than large stationary energy uses? Can international emissions trading accommodate potentially diverse types of emissions targets and widely different energy realities across countries? Are there hurdles to linking emissions trading systems based on various design features? Can emissions trading carry the entire burden of climate policy, or will other policy instruments remain necessary? In answering these questions, Act Locally, Trade Globally seeks to provide a complete picture of the future role of emissions trading in climate policy and the energy sector.

  10. Trend of CO2 emissions of the 30 largest power plants in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hermann, Hauke

    2014-01-01

    The brochure on the trend of CO 2 emissions of the 30 largest power plants in Germany includes tables of the emissions of these power plants. The CO 2 emissions of these power plants in 2013 (25% of the total German greenhouse gas emissions) have increased by 5% compared to 2012. The total CO 2 emission sin Germany increased by 1.5%. The differences between brown coal and black coal fired power plants are discussed.

  11. Projections of global emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases in 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gschrey, Barbara; Schwarz, Winfried [Oeko-Recherche Buero fuer Umweltforschung und -beratung GmbH, Frankfurt/Main (Germany)

    2009-11-15

    Emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases are currently covered under the Montreal Protocol, which focuses on ozone-depleting substances such as CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) and HCFCs (hydrochlorofluorocarbons), and under the Kyoto Protocol, which controls emissions of HFCs (hydrofluorocarbons), PFCs (perfluorocarbons) and SF{sub 6} (sulfur hexafluoride). This study bridges the gap between political regimes and their reporting systems by giving an overview of banks and emissions of all fluorinated gases in 2005, and projections of banks and emissions of fluorinated gases in 2050. The Montreal Protocol and its amendments will eventually result in the full phase out of CFCs and HCFCs. Developed countries have already completed the phase out of CFCs and will reach full phase out of HCFCs by 2020. Developing countries, in contrast, will phase out CFCs by 2010 and HCFCs by 2030. Although climate-friendly technology is available for most applications, the risk occurs that substitutes for ozone-depleting substances rely on HFCs, which cause global warming. This study determines global emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF{sub 6} (Kyoto F-gases) in 2050 in a ''business-as-usual'' scenario. The global population is expected to increase to ca. 8.7 billion people, and high economic growth of 3.5% per year is assumed. Emissions in 2050 are quantified for each sector of application as well as for developed and developing countries based on growth rates of each sector. In 2050, total global emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases are projected to amount to 4 GT CO{sub 2} eq. which equals ca. 5.9% of the total greenhouse gas emissions at this time. Compared to a relatively small share of F-gas emissions ranging around 1.3% of total greenhouse gas emissions in 2004, this percentage reflects an enormous increase. Relative to projected direct CO{sub 2} emissions alone, the 2050 F-gas emissions will even account for ca. 7.9%. In case of CO{sub 2} mitigation, this share

  12. Using Global Trends as Catalysts for City Transition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gebalska, Bogna Anna

    2017-01-01

    and acting in response to the events or it can miss the chance, losing in the global competition. There is a considerable interest in finding, what influences city's prosperity. Global trends and the socio-demographic evolution are recognized as main overall powers. This study examines how these forces...... stimulate cities and how to employ them in a development process, in order to achieve a successful city transition. Searching for essential elements directing towards inclusive and successful city transition, the urbanization is studied. Global processes influence cities significantly with individual......, different outcomes, what is examined in case study part. Case study provides cross sector analyses of three European cities, basing on national statistics, international and local databases. The study indicates that global forces and local conditions are of similar significance for city development. Case...

  13. US surface ozone trends and extremes from 1980 to 2014: quantifying the roles of rising Asian emissions, domestic controls, wildfires, and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Meiyun; Horowitz, Larry W.; Payton, Richard; Fiore, Arlene M.; Tonnesen, Gail

    2017-03-01

    US surface O3 responds to varying global-to-regional precursor emissions, climate, and extreme weather, with implications for designing effective air quality control policies. We examine these conjoined processes with observations and global chemistry-climate model (GFDL-AM3) hindcasts over 1980-2014. The model captures the salient features of observed trends in daily maximum 8 h average O3: (1) increases over East Asia (up to 2 ppb yr-1), (2) springtime increases at western US (WUS) rural sites (0.2-0.5 ppb yr-1) with a baseline sampling approach, and (3) summertime decreases, largest at the 95th percentile, and wintertime increases in the 50th to 5th percentiles over the eastern US (EUS). Asian NOx emissions have tripled since 1990, contributing as much as 65 % to modeled springtime background O3 increases (0.3-0.5 ppb yr-1) over the WUS, outpacing O3 decreases attained via 50 % US NOx emission controls. Methane increases over this period contribute only 15 % of the WUS background O3 increase. Springtime O3 observed in Denver has increased at a rate similar to remote rural sites. During summer, increasing Asian emissions approximately offset the benefits of US emission reductions, leading to weak or insignificant observed O3 trends at WUS rural sites. Mean springtime WUS O3 is projected to increase by ˜ 10 ppb from 2010 to 2030 under the RCP8.5 global change scenario. While historical wildfire emissions can enhance summertime monthly mean O3 at individual sites by 2-8 ppb, high temperatures and the associated buildup of O3 produced from regional anthropogenic emissions contribute most to elevating observed summertime O3 throughout the USA. GFDL-AM3 captures the observed interannual variability of summertime EUS O3. However, O3 deposition sink to vegetation must be reduced by 35 % for the model to accurately simulate observed high-O3 anomalies during the severe drought of 1988. Regional NOx reductions alleviated the O3 buildup during the recent heat waves of 2011

  14. Global radiative effects of solid fuel cookstove aerosol emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yaoxian; Unger, Nadine; Storelvmo, Trude; Harper, Kandice; Zheng, Yiqi; Heyes, Chris

    2018-04-01

    We apply the NCAR CAM5-Chem global aerosol-climate model to quantify the net global radiative effects of black and organic carbon aerosols from global and Indian solid fuel cookstove emissions for the year 2010. Our assessment accounts for the direct radiative effects, changes to cloud albedo and lifetime (aerosol indirect effect, AIE), impacts on clouds via the vertical temperature profile (semi-direct effect, SDE) and changes in the surface albedo of snow and ice (surface albedo effect). In addition, we provide the first estimate of household solid fuel black carbon emission effects on ice clouds. Anthropogenic emissions are from the IIASA GAINS ECLIPSE V5a inventory. A global dataset of black carbon (BC) and organic aerosol (OA) measurements from surface sites and aerosol optical depth (AOD) from AERONET is used to evaluate the model skill. Compared with observations, the model successfully reproduces the spatial patterns of atmospheric BC and OA concentrations, and agrees with measurements to within a factor of 2. Globally, the simulated AOD agrees well with observations, with a normalized mean bias close to zero. However, the model tends to underestimate AOD over India and China by ˜ 19 ± 4 % but overestimate it over Africa by ˜ 25 ± 11 % (± represents modeled temporal standard deviations for n = 5 run years). Without BC serving as ice nuclei (IN), global and Indian solid fuel cookstove aerosol emissions have net global cooling radiative effects of -141 ± 4 mW m-2 and -12 ± 4 mW m-2, respectively (± represents modeled temporal standard deviations for n = 5 run years). The net radiative impacts are dominated by the AIE and SDE mechanisms, which originate from enhanced cloud condensation nuclei concentrations for the formation of liquid and mixed-phase clouds, and a suppression of convective transport of water vapor from the lower troposphere to the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere that in turn leads to reduced ice cloud formation. When BC is allowed

  15. Global Fire Emissions Indicators, Grids: 1997-2015

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Fire Emissions Indicators, Grids: 1997-2015 contain a time-series of rasters from 1997 to 2015 for total area burned (hectares) and total carbon content...

  16. Comparison of Decadal Water Storage Trends from Global Hydrological Models and GRACE Satellite Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z. Z.; Save, H.; Sun, A. Y.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Van Beek, L. P.; Wiese, D. N.; Wada, Y.; Long, D.; Reedy, R. C.; Doll, P. M.; Longuevergne, L.

    2017-12-01

    Global hydrology is increasingly being evaluated using models; however, the reliability of these global models is not well known. In this study we compared decadal trends (2002-2014) in land water storage from 7 global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, and GLDAS: NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to storage trends from new GRACE satellite mascon solutions (CSR-M and JPL-M). The analysis was conducted over 186 river basins, representing about 60% of the global land area. Modeled total water storage trends agree with those from GRACE-derived trends that are within ±0.5 km3/yr but greatly underestimate large declining and rising trends outside this range. Large declining trends are found mostly in intensively irrigated basins and in some basins in northern latitudes. Rising trends are found in basins with little or no irrigation and are generally related to increasing trends in precipitation. The largest decline is found in the Ganges (-12 km3/yr) and the largest rise in the Amazon (43 km3/yr). Differences between models and GRACE are greatest in large basins (>0.5x106 km2) mostly in humid regions. There is very little agreement in storage trends between models and GRACE and among the models with values of r2 mostly store water over decadal timescales that is underrepresented by the models. The storage capacity in the modeled soil and groundwater compartments may be insufficient to accommodate the range in water storage variations shown by GRACE data. The inability of the models to capture the large storage trends indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced changes in water storage may be mostly underestimated. Future GRACE and model studies should try to reduce the various sources of uncertainty in water storage trends and should consider expanding the modeled storage capacity of the soil profiles and their interaction with groundwater.

  17. Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, Bridget R.; Zhang, Zizhan; Save, Himanshu; Sun, Alexander Y.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Wiese, David N.; Reedy, Robert C.; Longuevergne, Laurent; Döll, Petra; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2018-01-01

    Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002–2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤−0.5 km3/y) and increasing (≥0.5 km3/y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km3/y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (−71 to 11 km3/y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71–82 km3/y) but negative for models (−450 to −12 km3/y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated. PMID:29358394

  18. Origin of path independence between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seshadri, Ashwin K.

    2017-11-01

    Observations and GCMs exhibit approximate proportionality between cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and global warming. Here we identify sufficient conditions for the relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming to be independent of the path of CO2 emissions; referred to as "path independence". Our starting point is a closed form expression for global warming in a two-box energy balance model (EBM), which depends explicitly on cumulative emissions, airborne fraction and time. Path independence requires that this function can be approximated as depending on cumulative emissions alone. We show that path independence arises from weak constraints, occurring if the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions (equal to ratio between cumulative emissions and emissions rate) is small compared to the timescale for changes in airborne fraction (which depends on CO2 uptake), and also small relative to a derived climate model parameter called the damping-timescale, which is related to the rate at which deep-ocean warming affects global warming. Effects of uncertainties in the climate model and carbon cycle are examined. Large deep-ocean heat capacity in the Earth system is not necessary for path independence, which appears resilient to climate modeling uncertainties. However long time-constants in the Earth system carbon cycle are essential, ensuring that airborne fraction changes slowly with timescale much longer than the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions. Therefore path independence between cumulative emissions and warming cannot arise for short-lived greenhouse gases.

  19. Aircraft emission inventories for scheduled air traffic for the 1976-92 time period. Historical trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baughcum, S L; Henderson, S C; Tritz, T G [Boeing Co., Seattle, WA (United States)

    1998-12-31

    Emission inventories of fuel burned, NO{sub x}, CO, and hydrocarbons have been calculated for scheduled air traffic in 1976, 1984, 1990 and 1992 on a 1 deg latitude x 1 deg longitude x 1 km pressure altitude grid. Using this database, the seasonal variation and historical trends in aircraft emissions have been calculated for selected geographical regions (e.g., North Atlantic, Europe, North America, North Pacific). The trend in emissions is a combination of the effects of passenger demand growth, improved aircraft efficiency, changes in combustor characteristics, and aircraft size. (author) 8 refs.

  20. Aircraft emission inventories for scheduled air traffic for the 1976-92 time period. Historical trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baughcum, S.L.; Henderson, S.C.; Tritz, T.G. [Boeing Co., Seattle, WA (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Emission inventories of fuel burned, NO{sub x}, CO, and hydrocarbons have been calculated for scheduled air traffic in 1976, 1984, 1990 and 1992 on a 1 deg latitude x 1 deg longitude x 1 km pressure altitude grid. Using this database, the seasonal variation and historical trends in aircraft emissions have been calculated for selected geographical regions (e.g., North Atlantic, Europe, North America, North Pacific). The trend in emissions is a combination of the effects of passenger demand growth, improved aircraft efficiency, changes in combustor characteristics, and aircraft size. (author) 8 refs.

  1. Global Gridded Emission Inventories of Pentabrominated Diphenyl Ether (PeBDE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yi-Fan; Tian, Chongguo; Yang, Meng; Jia, Hongliang; Ma, Jianmin; Li, Dacheng

    2010-05-01

    Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are flame retardants widely used in many everyday products such as cars, furniture, textiles, and other electronic equipment. The commercial PBDEs have three major technical mixtures: penta-(PeBDE), octa-(OBDE) and decabromodiphenyl ethers (DeBDE). PeBDE is a mixture of several BDE congeners, such as BDE-47, -99, and -100, and has been included as a new member of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) under the 2009 Stockholm Convention. In order to produce gridded emission inventories of PeBDE on a global scale, information of production, consumption, emission, and physiochemical properties of PeBDE have been searched for published papers, government reports, and internet publications. A methodology to estimate the emissions of PeBDE has been developed and global gridded emission inventories of 2 major congener in PeBDE mixture, BDE-47 and -99, on a 1 degree by 1degree latitude/longitude resolution for 2005 have been compiled. Using these emission inventories as input data, the Canadian Model for Environmental Transport of Organochlorine Pesticides (CanMETOP) model was used to simulate the transport of these chemicals and their concentrations in air were calculated for the year of 2005. The modeled air concentration of BDE-47 and -99 were compared with the monitoring air concentrations of these two congeners in the same year obtained from renowned international/national monitoring programs, such as Global Atmospheric Passive Sampling (GAPS), the Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network (IADN), and the Chinese POPs Soil and Air Monitoring Program (SAMP), and significant correlations between the modeled results and the monitoring data were found, indicating the high quality of the produced emission inventories of BDE-47 and -99. Keywords: Pentabrominated Diphenyl Ether (PeBDE), Emission Inventories, Global, Model

  2. Global Trends in Space Access and Utilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Shamim A.; Keim, Nicholas S.; Zeender, Peter E.

    2010-01-01

    In the not-so-distant past, space access and air/space technology superiority were within the purview of the U.S. and former Soviet Union's respective space agencies, both vying for global leadership in space exploitation. In more recent years, with the emergence of the European Space Agency (ESA) member countries and Asian countries joining the family of space-faring nations, it is truer now more than ever that space access and utilization has become a truly global enterprise. In fact, according to the Space Report 2007, this enterprise is a $251-billion economy. It is possible to gauge the vitality of worldwide efforts from open sources in today's transparent, media-based society. In particular, print and web broadcasters regularly report and catalog global space activities for defense and civil purposes. For the purposes of this paper, a representative catalog of missions is used to illustrate the nature of the emerging "globalization." This paper highlights global trends in terms of not only the providers of space access, but also the end-users for the various recently accomplished missions. With well over 50 launches per year, in recent years, the launch-log reveals a surprising percentage of "cooperative or co-dependent missions" where different agencies, countries, and/or commercial entities are so engaged presumably to the benefit of all who participate. Statistics are cited and used to show that recently over d0% of the 50-plus missions involved multiple nations working collectively to deliver payloads to orbit. Observers, space policy professionals, and space agency leaders have eloquently proposed that it might require the combined resources and talents of multiple nations to advance human exploration goals beyond low earth orbit. This paper does not intend to offer new information with respect to whether international collaboration is necessary but to observe that, in continuing to monitor global trends, the results seem to support the thesis that a

  3. How much do direct livestock emissions actually contribute to global warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reisinger, Andy; Clark, Harry

    2018-04-01

    Agriculture directly contributes about 10%-12% of current global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, mostly from livestock. However, such percentage estimates are based on global warming potentials (GWPs), which do not measure the actual warming caused by emissions and ignore the fact that methane does not accumulate in the atmosphere in the same way as CO 2 . Here, we employ a simple carbon cycle-climate model, historical estimates and future projections of livestock emissions to infer the fraction of actual warming that is attributable to direct livestock non-CO 2 emissions now and in future, and to CO 2 from pasture conversions, without relying on GWPs. We find that direct livestock non-CO 2 emissions caused about 19% of the total modelled warming of 0.81°C from all anthropogenic sources in 2010. CO 2 from pasture conversions contributed at least another 0.03°C, bringing the warming directly attributable to livestock to 23% of the total warming in 2010. The significance of direct livestock emissions to future warming depends strongly on global actions to reduce emissions from other sectors. Direct non-CO 2 livestock emissions would contribute only about 5% of the warming in 2100 if emissions from other sectors increase unabated, but could constitute as much as 18% (0.27°C) of the warming in 2100 if global CO 2 emissions from other sectors are reduced to near or below zero by 2100, consistent with the goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C. These estimates constitute a lower bound since indirect emissions linked to livestock feed production and supply chains were not included. Our estimates demonstrate that expanding the mitigation potential and realizing substantial reductions of direct livestock non-CO 2 emissions through demand and supply side measures can make an important contribution to achieve the stringent mitigation goals set out in the Paris Agreement, including by increasing the carbon budget consistent with the 1.5°C goal. © 2017 John

  4. CO{sub 2} emission calculations and trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boden, T.A.; Marland, G. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Andres, R.J. [Alaska Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). Inst. of Northern Engineering

    1995-12-31

    Evidence that the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration has risen during the past several decades is irrefutable. Most of the observed increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} is believed to result from CO{sub 2} releases from fossil-fuel burning. The United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), signed in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992, reflects global concern over the increasing CO{sub 2} concentration and its potential impact on climate. One of the convention`s stated objectives was the ``stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. `` Specifically, the FCCC asked all 154 signing countries to conduct an inventory of their current greenhouse gas emissions, and it set nonbinding targets for some countries to control emissions by stabilizing them at 1990 levels by the year 2000. Given the importance of CO{sub 2} as a greenhouse gas, the relationship between CO{sub 2} emissions and increases in atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels, and the potential impacts of a greenhouse gas-induced climate change; it is important that comprehensive CO{sub 2} emissions records be compiled, maintained, updated, and documented.

  5. CO{sub 2} Emission Calculations and Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boden, T. A.; Marland, G.; Andres, R. J.

    1995-06-01

    Evidence that the atmospheric CO{sub 2}concentration has risen during the past several decades is irrefutable. Most of the observed increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} is believed to result from CO{sub 2} releases from fossil-fuel burning. The United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), signed in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992, reflects global concern over the increasing CO{sub 2} concentration and its potential impact on climate. One of the convention`s stated objectives was the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Specifically, the FCCC asked all 154 signing countries to conduct an inventory of their current greenhouse gas emissions, and it set nonbinding targets for some countries to control emissions by stabilizing them at 1990 levels by the year 2000. Given the importance of CO{sub 2} as a greenhouse gas, the relationship between CO{sub 2} emissions and increases in atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels, and the potential impacts of a greenhouse gas-induced climate change; it is important that comprehensive CO{sub 2} emissions records be compiled, maintained, updated, and documented.

  6. Technical opportunities to reduce global anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winiwarter, Wilfried; Höglund-Isaksson, Lena; Klimont, Zbigniew; Schöpp, Wolfgang; Amann, Markus

    2018-01-01

    We describe a consistent framework developed to quantify current and future anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide and the available technical abatement options by source sector for 172 regions globally. About 65% of the current emissions derive from agricultural soils, 8% from waste, and 4% from the chemical industry. Low-cost abatement options are available in industry, wastewater, and agriculture, where they are limited to large industrial farms. We estimate that by 2030, emissions can be reduced by about 6% ±2% applying abatement options at a cost lower than 10 €/t CO2-eq. The largest abatement potential at higher marginal costs is available from agricultural soils, employing precision fertilizer application technology as well as chemical treatment of fertilizers to suppress conversion processes in soil (nitrification inhibitors). At marginal costs of up to 100 €/t CO2-eq, about 18% ±6% of baseline emissions can be removed and when considering all available options, the global abatement potential increases to about 26% ±9%. Due to expected future increase in activities driving nitrous oxide emissions, the limited technical abatement potential available means that even at full implementation of reduction measures by 2030, global emissions can be at most stabilized at the pre-2010 level. In order to achieve deeper reductions in emissions, considerable technological development will be required as well as non-technical options like adjusting human diets towards moderate animal protein consumption.

  7. European air quality in the 2030's and 2050's: Impacts of global and regional emission trends and of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lacressonniere, G.; Peuch, V.H.; Vautard, R.

    2014-01-01

    A chemistry-transport model using two-way nested regional (Europe) and global domains is used to evaluate the effects of climate and emission changes on air quality over Europe for the 2030's and 2050's, by comparison with the emissions and climate of the recent past. We investigated the pollutant levels under the implementations of reduced anthropogenic emissions (NOx, SO 2 , etc) over Europe and, at the global scale, under the Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP8.5) scenario produced by the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of IPCC. The simulations show an increase in surface ozone in northwestern Europe and a decrease in southern areas in the future horizons studied here. Over Europe, average O 3 levels steadily increase with a rate of around 3 mg m 3 per decade in summer. For this pollutant, the contributions of long range transport over the Northern Hemisphere and climate changes have been assessed and appear to counterbalance and even slightly outweigh the effects of European reductions in precursors' anthropogenic emissions. The tropospheric ozone budget is found to be dominated by enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchanges in future climate while the chemical budget is significantly reduced. Our results show that a NOx-limited chemical regime will stretch over most of Europe, including especially Western France in the future. These findings allow supporting efficient future precursor emissions abatement strategies in order to limit O 3 pollution and maintain or improve air quality standards in Europe. (authors)

  8. Low-Computation Strategies for Extracting CO2 Emission Trends from Surface-Level Mixing Ratio Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shusterman, A.; Kim, J.; Lieschke, K.; Newman, C.; Cohen, R. C.

    2017-12-01

    Global momentum is building for drastic, regulated reductions in greenhouse gas emissions over the coming decade. With this increasing regulation comes a clear need for increasingly sophisticated monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) strategies capable of enforcing and optimizing emissions-related policy, particularly as it applies to urban areas. Remote sensing and/or activity-based emission inventories can offer MRV insights for entire sectors or regions, but are not yet sophisticated enough to resolve unexpected trends in specific emitters. Urban surface monitors can offer the desired proximity to individual greenhouse gas sources, but due to the densely-packed nature of typical urban landscapes, surface observations are rarely representative of a single source. Most previous efforts to decompose these complex signals into their contributing emission processes have involved inverse atmospheric modeling techniques, which are computationally intensive and believed to depend heavily on poorly understood a priori estimates of error covariance. Here we present a number of transparent, low-computation approaches for extracting source-specific emissions estimates from signals with a variety of nearfield influences. Using observations from the first several years of the BErkeley Atmospheric CO2 Observation Network (BEACO2N), we demonstrate how to exploit strategic pairings of monitoring "nodes," anomalous wind conditions, and well-understood temporal variations to hone in on specific CO2 sources of interest. When evaluated against conventional, activity-based bottom-up emission inventories, these strategies are seen to generate quantitatively rigorous emission estimates. With continued application as the BEACO2N data set grows in time and space, these approaches offer a promising avenue for optimizing greenhouse gas mitigation strategies into the future.

  9. International comparison of CO2 emission trends in the iron and steel industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeonbae, Kim; Worrell, E.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, we present an in-depth decomposition analysis of trends in CO 2 emissions in the iron and steel industry using physical indicators. Physical indicators allow a detailed analysis of intra- sectoral trends, in contrast to the mostly used monetary indicators. Detailed decomposition analysis makes it possible to link developments in energy intensity to technology change and (indirectly) to policy. We present an analysis for the iron and steel industry in seven countries, i.e. Brazil, China, India (developing countries), Mexico and South Korea (newly industrialized countries) and the United States (industrialized country). We found substantial differences in energy efficiency among these countries. In most countries the increased (or decreased) production was the main contributor to changes in CO 2 emissions, while energy-efficiency was the main factor reducing emission intensities of steel production in almost all countries. Changes in power generation contributed to a reduction of specific emissions in the case of South Korea only. (Author)

  10. The effects of Norwegian gas export on the global CO2 emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-01-01

    This report analyses how a limitation of Norway's gas export might affect the global CO 2 emission. In principle, a reduction of this export can lead to decreased or increased CO 2 emission depending on changes in several conditions that individually have conflicting emission effects. What the total effect will be can only become clear after a thorough empirical analysis of the supply and demand structure. The model calculations presented in the report show that the global emission will probably increase if Norway reduces the gas export. A gas export reduction of 10 million tonne oil equivalents in 2015 will increase the global emission by 1.4 and 7.5 million tonne CO 2 depending on the assumption made for alternative gas supplies to the European market and for market conditions in the importing countries. 4 refs., 32 figs., 44 tabs

  11. Inverse modelling estimates of N2O surface emissions and stratospheric losses using a global dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, R. L.; Bousquet, P.; Chevallier, F.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Vermeulen, A. T.; Aalto, T.; Haszpra, L.; Meinhardt, F.; O'Doherty, S.; Moncrieff, J. B.; Popa, M.; Steinbacher, M.; Jordan, A.; Schuck, T. J.; Brenninkmeijer, C. A.; Wofsy, S. C.; Kort, E. A.

    2010-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) levels have been steadily increasing in the atmosphere over the past few decades at a rate of approximately 0.3% per year. This trend is of major concern as N2O is both a long-lived Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and an Ozone Depleting Substance (ODS), as it is a precursor of NO and NO2, which catalytically destroy ozone in the stratosphere. Recently, N2O emissions have been recognised as the most important ODS emissions and are now of greater importance than emissions of CFC's. The growth in atmospheric N2O is predominantly due to the enhancement of surface emissions by human activities. Most notably, the intensification and proliferation of agriculture since the mid-19th century, which has been accompanied by the increased input of reactive nitrogen to soils and has resulted in significant perturbations to the natural N-cycle and emissions of N2O. There exist two approaches for estimating N2O emissions, the so-called 'bottom-up' and 'top-down' approaches. Top-down approaches, based on the inversion of atmospheric measurements, require an estimate of the loss of N2O via photolysis and oxidation in the stratosphere. Uncertainties in the loss magnitude contribute uncertainties of 15 to 20% to the global annual surface emissions, complicating direct comparisons between bottom-up and top-down estimates. In this study, we present a novel inversion framework for the simultaneous optimization of N2O surface emissions and the magnitude of the loss, which avoids errors in the emissions due to incorrect assumptions about the lifetime of N2O. We use a Bayesian inversion with a variational formulation (based on 4D-Var) in order to handle very large datasets. N2O fluxes are retrieved at 4-weekly resolution over a global domain with a spatial resolution of 3.75° x 2.5° longitude by latitude. The efficacy of the simultaneous optimization of emissions and losses is tested using a global synthetic dataset, which mimics the available atmospheric data. Lastly, using real

  12. Trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Shao-Min; Wu, Guang

    2009-12-01

    The global warming is an important factor affecting the biological evolution, and the influenza is an important disease that threatens humans with possible epidemics or pandemics. In this study, we attempted to analyze the trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus, because this protein is a target of anti-flu drug, and its mutation would have significant effect on the resistance to anti-flu drugs. The evolution of matrix protein 2 of influenza A virus from 1959 to 2008 was defined using the unpredictable portion of amino-acid pair predictability. Then the trend in this evolution was compared with the trend in the global temperature, the temperature in north and south hemispheres, and the temperature in influenza A virus sampling site, and species carrying influenza A virus. The results showed the similar trends in global warming and in evolution of M2 proteins although we could not correlate them at this stage of study. The study suggested the potential impact of global warming on the evolution of proteins from influenza A virus.

  13. Impacts of nationally determined contributions on 2030 global greenhouse gas emissions: uncertainty analysis and distribution of emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benveniste, Hélène; Boucher, Olivier; Guivarch, Céline; Le Treut, Hervé; Criqui, Patrick

    2018-01-01

    Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), submitted by Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change before and after the 21st Conference of Parties, summarize domestic objectives for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions for the 2025-2030 time horizon. In the absence, for now, of detailed guidelines for the format of NDCs, ancillary data are needed to interpret some NDCs and project GHG emissions in 2030. Here, we provide an analysis of uncertainty sources and their impacts on 2030 global GHG emissions based on the sole and full achievement of the NDCs. We estimate that NDCs project into 56.8-66.5 Gt CO2eq yr-1 emissions in 2030 (90% confidence interval), which is higher than previous estimates, and with a larger uncertainty range. Despite these uncertainties, NDCs robustly shift GHG emissions towards emerging and developing countries and reduce international inequalities in per capita GHG emissions. Finally, we stress that current NDCs imply larger emissions reduction rates after 2030 than during the 2010-2030 period if long-term temperature goals are to be fulfilled. Our results highlight four requirements for the forthcoming ‘climate regime’: a clearer framework regarding future NDCs’ design, an increasing participation of emerging and developing countries in the global mitigation effort, an ambitious update mechanism in order to avoid hardly feasible decarbonization rates after 2030 and an anticipation of steep decreases in global emissions after 2030.

  14. Nitrous oxide and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kroeze, C.

    1994-01-01

    The climatic impact of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions is calculated annually for the period 1900-2100, using a globally averaged computer model. Emissions of N 2 O have been increasing up top an estimated 12.7 Tg N/year in 1990 by human activities and global warming. If the current trends continue, emissions are estimated to be 25.7 Tg N/year by 2100, with fossil-fuel use and human food production as major contributors. The resulting equilibrium temperature increase (0.37 degree C) exceeds the forcing derived from climate goals that may be considered environmentally desirable. Limiting equilibrium warming to 0.1 degree C per decade would require anthropogenic-induced and warming-induced N 2 O emissions to be reduced by 80% relative to current trends and to be stabilized from 2050, so that 10.7 Tg N/year is emitted by 2100. To stabilize the current concentration or climate forcing of N 2 , substantially larger cuts are needed. However, even in an optimistic scenario, emissions keep increasing up to 14.4. Tg N/year by 2100. A major reason is the close connection between N 2 O emissions and human food production. Synthetic fertilizer use, land-use change, and production of manure increase almost inevitably as the human population grows. Thus if global warming is to be limited to 0.1 degree C per decade it may be necessary to set emission reductions for other greenhouse gases relatively high to compensate for growth in climatic forcing by N 2 O

  15. Primary sources of selected POPs: regional and global scale emission inventories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Breivik, Knut; Alcock, Ruth; Li Yifan; Bailey, Robert E.; Fiedler, Heidelore; Pacyna, Jozef M

    2004-03-01

    During the last decade, a number of studies have been devoted to the sources and emissions of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) at regional and global scales. While significant improvements in knowledge have been achieved for some pesticides, the quantitative understanding of the emission processes and emission patterns for 'non-pesticide' POPs are still considered limited. The key issues remaining for the non-pesticide POPs are in part determined by their general source classification. For industrial chemicals, such as the polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), there is considerable uncertainty with respect to the relative importance of atmospheric emissions from various source categories. For PCBs, temperature is discussed as a potential key factor influencing atmospheric emission levels and patterns. When it comes to the unintentional by-products of combustion and industrial processes (PCDD/Fs), there is still a large uncertainty with respect to the relative contribution of emissions from unregulated sources such as backyard barrel burning that requires further consideration and characterisation. For hexachlorobenzene (HCB), the relative importance of primary and secondary atmospheric emissions in controlling current atmospheric concentrations remains one of the key uncertainties. While these and other issues may remain unresolved, knowledge concerning the emissions of POPs is a prerequisite for any attempt to understand and predict the distribution and fate of these chemicals on a regional and global scale as well as to efficiently minimise future environmental burdens. - Knowledge of primary emissions is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting POPs on a regional/global scale.

  16. Primary sources of selected POPs: regional and global scale emission inventories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breivik, Knut; Alcock, Ruth; Li Yifan; Bailey, Robert E.; Fiedler, Heidelore; Pacyna, Jozef M.

    2004-01-01

    During the last decade, a number of studies have been devoted to the sources and emissions of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) at regional and global scales. While significant improvements in knowledge have been achieved for some pesticides, the quantitative understanding of the emission processes and emission patterns for 'non-pesticide' POPs are still considered limited. The key issues remaining for the non-pesticide POPs are in part determined by their general source classification. For industrial chemicals, such as the polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), there is considerable uncertainty with respect to the relative importance of atmospheric emissions from various source categories. For PCBs, temperature is discussed as a potential key factor influencing atmospheric emission levels and patterns. When it comes to the unintentional by-products of combustion and industrial processes (PCDD/Fs), there is still a large uncertainty with respect to the relative contribution of emissions from unregulated sources such as backyard barrel burning that requires further consideration and characterisation. For hexachlorobenzene (HCB), the relative importance of primary and secondary atmospheric emissions in controlling current atmospheric concentrations remains one of the key uncertainties. While these and other issues may remain unresolved, knowledge concerning the emissions of POPs is a prerequisite for any attempt to understand and predict the distribution and fate of these chemicals on a regional and global scale as well as to efficiently minimise future environmental burdens. - Knowledge of primary emissions is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting POPs on a regional/global scale

  17. Isotopic source signatures: Impact of regional variability on the δ13CH4 trend and spatial distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feinberg, Aryeh I.; Coulon, Ancelin; Stenke, Andrea; Schwietzke, Stefan; Peter, Thomas

    2018-02-01

    The atmospheric methane growth rate has fluctuated over the past three decades, signifying variations in methane sources and sinks. Methane isotopic ratios (δ13CH4) differ between emission categories, and can therefore be used to distinguish which methane sources have changed. However, isotopic modelling studies have mainly focused on uncertainties in methane emissions rather than uncertainties in isotopic source signatures. We simulated atmospheric δ13CH4 for the period 1990-2010 using the global chemistry-climate model SOCOL. Empirically-derived regional variability in the isotopic signatures was introduced in a suite of sensitivity simulations. These simulations were compared to a baseline simulation with commonly used global mean isotopic signatures. We investigated coal, natural gas/oil, wetland, livestock, and biomass burning source signatures to determine whether regional variations impact the observed isotopic trend and spatial distribution. Based on recently published source signature datasets, our calculated global mean isotopic signatures are in general lighter than the commonly used values. Trends in several isotopic signatures were also apparent during the period 1990-2010. Tropical livestock emissions grew during the 2000s, introducing isotopically heavier livestock emissions since tropical livestock consume more C4 vegetation than midlatitude livestock. Chinese coal emissions, which are isotopically heavy compared to other coals, increase during the 2000s leading to higher global values of δ13CH4 for coal emissions. EDGAR v4.2 emissions disagree with the observed atmospheric isotopic trend for almost all simulations, confirming past doubts about this emissions inventory. The agreement between the modelled and observed δ13CH4 interhemispheric differences improves when regional source signatures are used. Even though the simulated results are highly dependent on the choice of methane emission inventories, they emphasize that the commonly used

  18. Peatland Organic Matter Chemistry Trends Over a Global Latitudinal Gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verbeke, B. A.; Hodgkins, S. B.; Carson, M. A.; Lamit, L. J.; Lilleskov, E.; Chanton, J.

    2017-12-01

    Peatlands contain a significant amount of the global soil carbon, and the climate feedback of carbon cycling within these peatland systems is still relatively unknown. Organic matter composition of peatlands plays a major role in determining carbon storage, and while high latitude peatlands seem to be the most sensitive to climate change, a global picture of peat organic matter chemistry is required to improve predictions and models of greenhouse gas emissions fueled by peatland decomposition. The objective of this research is to test the hypothesis that carbohydrate content of peatlands near the equator will be lower than high latitude peatlands, while aromatic content will be higher. As a part of the Global Peatland Microbiome Project (GPMP), around 2000 samples of peat from 10 to 70 cm across a latitudinal gradient of 79 N to 53 S were measured with Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) to examine the organic matter functional groups of peat. Carbohydrate and aromatic content, as determined by FTIR, are useful proxies of decomposition potential and recalcitrance, respectively. We found a highly significant relationship between carbohydrate and aromatic content, latitude, and depth. Carbohydrate content of high latitude sites were significantly greater than at sites near the equator, in contrast to aromatic content which showed the opposite trend. It is also clear that carbohydrate content decreases with depth while aromatic content increases with depth. Higher carbohydrate content at higher latitudes indicates a greater potential for lability and resultant mineralization to form the greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane, whereas the composition of low latitude peatlands is consistent with their apparent stability. We speculate that the combination of low carbohydrates and high aromatics at warmer locations near the equator could foreshadow the organic matter composition of high latitude peat transitioning to a more recalcitrant form with a

  19. Mapping 1995 global anthropogenic emissions of mercury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacyna, Jozef M.; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Wilson, Simon

    This paper presents maps of anthropogenic Hg emissions worldwide within a 1°×1° latitude/longitude grid system in 1995. As such, the paper is designed for modelers simulating the Hg transport within air masses and Hg deposition to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Maps of total Hg emissions and its three main chemical species: elemental gaseous Hg, divalent gaseous Hg, and particle-associated Hg are presented. The main emissions occur in southeast Asia (particularly in China), South Africa, Central and Eastern Europe, and the Eastern United States. These are the regions where coal combustion is the main source of electricity and heat production. Waste incineration adds to these emissions in the Eastern United States. Emissions of total Hg and its three species are quite similar in terms of their (global) spatial distributions. They reflect the worldwide distribution of coal consumption in large power plants, industrial burners, and small combustion units, such as residential and commercial furnaces.

  20. Influence of travel behavior on global CO2 emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Girod, B.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Vries, B. de

    2013-01-01

    Travel demand is rising steeply and its contribution to global CO2 emissions is increasing. Different studies have shown possible mitigation through technological options, but so far few studies have evaluated the implications of changing travel behavior on global travel demand, energy use and CO2

  1. Globally significant greenhouse-gas emissions from African inland waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borges, Alberto V.; Bouillon, Steven

    2017-04-01

    The relevance of inland waters to global biogeochemical cycles is increasingly recognized, and of particular importance is their contribution of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. The latter remain largely unreported in African inland waters. Here we report dissolved CO2, CH4 and N2O from 12 rivers in Sub-Saharan Africa acquired during >30 field expeditions and additional seasonally resolved sampling at >30 sites between 2006 and 2014. Fluxes were calculated from reported gas transfer velocity values, and upscaled using available spatial datasets, with an estimated uncertainty of about ±19%. CO2 equivalent emissions ( 0.4±0.1 PgC yr-1) match 2/3 of the overall net carbon sink previously reported for Africa. Including emissions from wetlands of the Congo, the putative total emission ( 0.9±0.1 PgC yr-1) is about half of the global oceanic or land carbon sinks. In-situ respiration supported <14% of riverine CO2 emissions, which must therefore largely be driven by mineralization in wetlands or uplands. Riverine CO2 and CH4 emissions were directly correlated to wetland coverage and aboveground vegetation biomass, implying that future changes in wetland and upland vegetation cover will strongly impact GHG emissions from African inland waters.

  2. On the quality of global emission inventories. Approaches, methodologies, input data and uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olivier, J.G.J.

    2002-01-01

    Four key scientific questions will be investigated: (1) How does a user define the 'quality' of a global (or national) emission inventory? (Chapter 2); (2) What determines the quality of a global emission inventory? (Chapters 2 and 7); (3) How can inventory quality be achieved in practice and expressed in quantitative terms ('uncertainty')? (Chapters 3 to 6); and (4) What is the preferred approach for compiling a global emission inventory, given the practical limitations and the desired inventory quality? (Chapters 7 and 8)

  3. Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.

    2012-04-01

    The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.

  4. Research report on the trend of preventive measures against global warming by substituting CFCs; Daitai freon no chiku ondanka taisaku doko ni kansuru chosa hokokusho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-03-01

    This paper reports the research results on the present state and future trend of protective measures for the ozone layer, and the trend of preventive measures against global warming by substituting CFCs such as HFC, through international conferences, meetings and lecture meetings, and literature survey. In the 8th meeting of the parties to the Montreal Protocol, it was presented that refrigerator producers in Thailand phased out CFCs from their products earlier than the schedule in cooperation with Japan. The final draft including the approval of essential use from 1997 to 2002 was reviewed, and reported to the technology/economy assessment panel. Reduction of ozone depleting substances was guided in Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines. The latest trend of substituting technologies of HCFC was surveyed, and the control trend of F-containing greenhouse effect gas emission was also surveyed through the conference of the parties of climate change in fiscal 1996. Based on the IPCC report in 1995, the emission amount of greenhouse gases of nearly 10% in contribution such as CO2, methane and fluorocarbon was arranged. R and D on destruction of CFCs was also surveyed. 35 refs., 54 figs., 32 tabs.

  5. Revised methane emissions factors and spatially distributed annual carbon fluxes for global livestock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Julie; Asrar, Ghassem R; West, Tristram O

    2017-09-29

    Livestock play an important role in carbon cycling through consumption of biomass and emissions of methane. Recent research suggests that existing bottom-up inventories of livestock methane emissions in the US, such as those made using 2006 IPCC Tier 1 livestock emissions factors, are too low. This may be due to outdated information used to develop these emissions factors. In this study, we update information for cattle and swine by region, based on reported recent changes in animal body mass, feed quality and quantity, milk productivity, and management of animals and manure. We then use this updated information to calculate new livestock methane emissions factors for enteric fermentation in cattle, and for manure management in cattle and swine. Using the new emissions factors, we estimate global livestock emissions of 119.1 ± 18.2 Tg methane in 2011; this quantity is 11% greater than that obtained using the IPCC 2006 emissions factors, encompassing an 8.4% increase in enteric fermentation methane, a 36.7% increase in manure management methane, and notable variability among regions and sources. For example, revised manure management methane emissions for 2011 in the US increased by 71.8%. For years through 2013, we present (a) annual livestock methane emissions, (b) complete annual livestock carbon budgets, including carbon dioxide emissions, and (c) spatial distributions of livestock methane and other carbon fluxes, downscaled to 0.05 × 0.05 degree resolution. Our revised bottom-up estimates of global livestock methane emissions are comparable to recently reported top-down global estimates for recent years, and account for a significant part of the increase in annual methane emissions since 2007. Our results suggest that livestock methane emissions, while not the dominant overall source of global methane emissions, may be a major contributor to the observed annual emissions increases over the 2000s to 2010s. Differences at regional and local scales may help

  6. Labour Markets Trends, Financial Globalization and the current crisis in Developing Countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.E. van der Hoeven (Rolph)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe current wave of globalization has profound labour market effects, accentuated, in many cases, by the current financial and economic crisis. This paper reviews general labour market trends and country examples, arguing that the current globalization process makes labour’s position

  7. A joint modelling exercise designed to assess the respective impact of emission changes and meteorological variability on the observed air quality trends in major urban hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colette, Augustin; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Dangiola, Ariela; D'Isidoro, Massimo; Gauss, Michael; Granier, Claire; Hodnebrog, Øivind; Jakobs, Hermann; Kanakidou, Maria; Khokhar, Fahim; Law, Kathy; Maurizi, Alberto; Meleux, Frederik; Memmesheimer, Michael; Nyiri, Agnes; Rouil, Laurence; Stordal, Frode; Tampieri, Francesco

    2010-05-01

    With the growth of urban agglomerations, assessing the drivers of variability of air quality in and around the main anthropogenic emission hotspots has become a major societal concern as well as a scientific challenge. These drivers include emission changes and meteorological variability; both of them can be investigated by means of numerical modelling of trends over the past few years. A collaborative effort has been developed in the framework of the CityZen European project to address this question. Several chemistry and transport models (CTMs) are deployed in this activity: four regional models (BOLCHEM, CHIMERE, EMEP and EURAD) and three global models (CTM2, MOZART, and TM4). The period from 1998 to 2007 has been selected for the historic reconstruction. The focus for the present preliminary presentation is Europe. A consistent set of emissions is used by all partners (EMEP for the European domain and IPCC-AR5 beyond) while a variety of meteorological forcing is used to gain robustness in the ensemble spread amongst models. The results of this experiment will be investigated to address the following questions: - Is the envelope of models able to reproduce the observed trends of the key chemical constituents? - How the variability amongst models changes in time and space and what does it tell us about the processes driving the observed trends? - Did chemical regimes and aerosol formation processes changed in selected hotspots? Answering the above questions will contribute to fulfil the ultimate goal of the present study: distinguishing the respective contribution of meteorological variability and emissions changes on air quality trends in major anthropogenic emissions hotspots.

  8. Global Warming: Physics and Facts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levi, B.G.; Hafemeister, D.; Scribner, R.

    1992-01-01

    This report contains papers on: A tutorial on global atmospheric energetics and the greenhouse effect; global climate models: what and how; comparison of general circulation models; climate and the earth's radiation budget; temperature and sea level change; short-term climate variability and predictions; the great ocean conveyor; trace gases in the atmosphere: temporal and spatial trends; the geochemical carbon cycle and the uptake of fossil fuel CO 2 ; forestry and global warming; the physical and policy linkages; policy implications of greenhouse warming; options for lowering US carbon dioxide emissions; options for reducing carbon dioxide emissions; and science and diplomacy: a new partnership to protect the environment

  9. The global economic cycle and satellite-derived NO2 trends over shipping lanes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruyter de Wildt, de M.; Eskes, H.J.; Boersma, K.F.

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, space-borne spectrometers have been used to detect shipping emissions of nitrogen oxides. Driven by economic growth, these emissions have been increasing for several decades, yet in few studies it has been attempted to detect trends in ship emitted NO2 from space. Here a method is

  10. Mapping the spatial distribution of global anthropogenic mercury atmospheric emission inventories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Simon J.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pacyna, Jozef M.; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.

    This paper describes the procedures employed to spatially distribute global inventories of anthropogenic emissions of mercury to the atmosphere, prepared by Pacyna, E.G., Pacyna, J.M., Steenhuisen, F., Wilson, S. [2006. Global anthropogenic mercury emission inventory for 2000. Atmospheric Environment, this issue, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.03.041], and briefly discusses the results of this work. A new spatially distributed global emission inventory for the (nominal) year 2000, and a revised version of the 1995 inventory are presented. Emissions estimates for total mercury and major species groups are distributed within latitude/longitude-based grids with a resolution of 1×1 and 0.5×0.5°. A key component in the spatial distribution procedure is the use of population distribution as a surrogate parameter to distribute emissions from sources that cannot be accurately geographically located. In this connection, new gridded population datasets were prepared, based on the CEISIN GPW3 datasets (CIESIN, 2004. Gridded Population of the World (GPW), Version 3. Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT). GPW3 data are available at http://beta.sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/index.jsp). The spatially distributed emissions inventories and population datasets prepared in the course of this work are available on the Internet at www.amap.no/Resources/HgEmissions/

  11. How to globally reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from sewage systems?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batz, S. de; Bonardet, P.; Trouve, J.P.

    2007-01-01

    A reliable and exhaustive measurement of the global greenhouse gas emissions from a given sewage plant must be performed prior to the implementation of any abatement measure. The method presented in this paper takes into consideration both the direct emissions but also the indirect ones generated by the plant activity and identified using a life cycle-type approach. Three examples of projects or realizations are presented in this paper to illustrate the different means of abatement of greenhouse gas emissions from a sewage plant in a global way. The first example concerns a project of abatement of the electricity consumption of a plant for sludges and fats digestion and biogas valorization. A 85% global abatement of CO 2 emissions is obtained thanks to the substitution of the aerobic digestion process by an anaerobic one. The second example presents an optimization of the greenhouse gas emissions of the municipal sewage plant of Valenton (Paris region) thanks to a valorization of sludges as fertilizers and fuels and to the recovery of the process heat. The last example concerns the Seine-aval sewage plant which gathers several projects of improvement: setting up of a second biogas turbine, redesign of the heat loop, use of river transport for a significant abatement of greenhouse gas emissions. (J.S.)

  12. Characterizing uncertainties in recent trends of global terrestrial net primary production through ensemble modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Ganguly, S.; Votava, P.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R. B.

    2010-12-01

    Large uncertainties exist in our understanding of the trends and variability in global net primary production (NPP) and its controls. This study attempts to address this question through a multi-model ensemble experiment. In particular, we drive ecosystem models including CASA, LPJ, Biome-BGC, TOPS-BGC, and BEAMS with a long-term climate dataset (i.e., CRU-NCEP) to estimate global NPP from 1901 to 2009 at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree. We calculate the trends of simulated NPP during different time periods and test their sensitivities to climate variables of solar radiation, air temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and atmospheric CO2 levels. The results indicate a large diversity among the simulated NPP trends over the past 50 years, ranging from nearly no trend to an increasing trend of ~0.1 PgC/yr. Spatial patterns of the NPP generally show positive trends in boreal forests, induced mainly by increasing temperatures in these regions; they also show negative trends in the tropics, although the spatial patterns are more diverse. These diverse trends result from different climatic sensitivities of NPP among the tested models. Depending the ecological processes (e.g., photosynthesis or respiration) a model emphasizes, it can be more or less responsive to changes in solar radiation, temperatures, water, or atmospheric CO2 levels. Overall, these results highlight the limit of current ecosystem models in simulating NPP, which cannot be easily observed. They suggest that the traditional single-model approach is not ideal for characterizing trends and variability in global carbon cycling.

  13. Trends in the Indian Ocean Climatology due to anthropogenic induced global warming

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Meyer, AA

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available clearly show that due to global warming the South West Indian Ocean Climatology has been changing and that this changing trend will continue into the future as global warming continues. The impacts of regional oceanic climate change on the regions coastal...

  14. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  15. Trends in aircraft emissions. Simulation of two air traffic scenarios in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larson, L.G.; Palsson, A. [The Aeronautical Research Inst. of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden). The Swedish Civil Aviation Administration

    1997-12-31

    The developing trends of emissions from aviation in Sweden have been studied by means of flight and emissions simulation. The objective was to investigate whether technical improvements will allow Swedish air traffic to increase, without exceeding national regulations for pollution in the future. It was found that, due to development of aircraft engines and, to some extent, improvement of aerodynamic designs, the fuel consumption and thus the emissions of carbon dioxide will decrease in the future. The decrease of nitrous oxides is predicted to be significant due to advances in engine technology. (author) 4 refs.

  16. Trends in aircraft emissions. Simulation of two air traffic scenarios in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larson, L G; Palsson, A [The Aeronautical Research Inst. of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden). The Swedish Civil Aviation Administration

    1998-12-31

    The developing trends of emissions from aviation in Sweden have been studied by means of flight and emissions simulation. The objective was to investigate whether technical improvements will allow Swedish air traffic to increase, without exceeding national regulations for pollution in the future. It was found that, due to development of aircraft engines and, to some extent, improvement of aerodynamic designs, the fuel consumption and thus the emissions of carbon dioxide will decrease in the future. The decrease of nitrous oxides is predicted to be significant due to advances in engine technology. (author) 4 refs.

  17. Trends in global warming and evolution of nucleoproteins from influenza A viruses since 1918.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, S; Wu, G

    2010-12-01

    Global warming affects not only the environment where we live, but also all living species to different degree, including influenza A virus. We recently conducted several studies on the possible impact of global warming on the protein families of influenza A virus. More studies are needed in order to have a full picture of the impact of global warming on living organisms, especially its effect on viruses. In this study, we correlate trends in global warming with evolution of the nucleoprotein from influenza A virus and then analyse the trends with respect to northern/southern hemispheres, virus subtypes and sampling species. The results suggest that global warming may have an impact on the evolution of the nucleoprotein from influenza A virus. © 2010 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  18. The future tourism mobility of the world population: Emission growth versus climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dubois, G.; Ceron, J.P.; Peeters, P.M.; Gössling, S.

    2011-01-01

    Much of global passenger transport is linked to tourism. The sector is therefore of interest in studying global mobility trends and transport-related emissions. In 2005, tourism was responsible for around 5% of all CO2 emissions, of which 75% were caused by passenger transport. Given the rapid

  19. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Contribution of milk production to global greenhouse gas emissions. An estimation based on typical farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagemann, Martin; Ndambi, Asaah; Hemme, Torsten; Latacz-Lohmann, Uwe

    2012-02-01

    Studies on the contribution of milk production to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are rare (FAO 2010) and often based on crude data which do not appropriately reflect the heterogeneity of farming systems. This article estimates GHG emissions from milk production in different dairy regions of the world based on a harmonised farm data and assesses the contribution of milk production to global GHG emissions. The methodology comprises three elements: (1) the International Farm Comparison Network (IFCN) concept of typical farms and the related globally standardised dairy model farms representing 45 dairy regions in 38 countries; (2) a partial life cycle assessment model for estimating GHG emissions of the typical dairy farms; and (3) standard regression analysis to estimate GHG emissions from milk production in countries for which no typical farms are available in the IFCN database. Across the 117 typical farms in the 38 countries analysed, the average emission rate is 1.50 kg CO(2) equivalents (CO(2)-eq.)/kg milk. The contribution of milk production to the global anthropogenic emissions is estimated at 1.3 Gt CO(2)-eq./year, accounting for 2.65% of total global anthropogenic emissions (49 Gt; IPCC, Synthesis Report for Policy Maker, Valencia, Spain, 2007). We emphasise that our estimates of the contribution of milk production to global GHG emissions are subject to uncertainty. Part of the uncertainty stems from the choice of the appropriate methods for estimating emissions at the level of the individual animal.

  1. The role of philosophy in global bioethics: introducing four trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellsten, Sirkku K

    2015-04-01

    This article examines the relationship between philosophy and culture in global bioethics. First, it studies what is meant by the term "global" in global bioethics. Second, the author introduces four different types, or recognizable trends, in philosophical inquiry in bioethics today. The main argument is that, in order to make better sense of the complexity of the ethical questions and challenges we face today across the globe, we need to embrace the universal nature of self-critical and analytical philosophical analysis and argumentation, rather than using seemingly philosophical approaches to give unjustified normative emphasis on different cultural approaches to bioethics.

  2. Analysis of emission data from global commercial aviation: 2004 and 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. T. Wilkerson

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The global commercial aircraft fleet in 2006 flew 31.26 million flights, burned 188.20 million metric tons of fuel, and covered 38.68 billion kilometers. This activity emitted substantial amounts of fossil-fuel combustion products within the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere that affect atmospheric composition and climate. The emissions products, such as carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, sulfur compounds, and particulate matter, are not emitted uniformly over the Earth, so understanding the temporal and spatial distributions is important for modeling aviation's climate impacts. Global commercial aircraft emission data for 2004 and 2006, provided by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, were computed using the Federal Aviation Administration's Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT. Continuous improvement in methodologies, including changes in AEDT's horizontal track methodologies, and an increase in availability of data make some differences between the 2004 and 2006 inventories incomparable. Furthermore, the 2004 inventory contained a significant over-count due to an imperfect data merge and daylight savings error. As a result, the 2006 emissions inventory is considered more representative of actual flight activity. Here, we analyze both 2004 and 2006 emissions, focusing on the latter, and provide corrected totals for 2004. Analysis of 2006 flight data shows that 92.5% of fuel was burned in the Northern Hemisphere, 69.0% between 30N and 60N latitudes, and 74.6% was burned above 7 km. This activity led to 162.25 Tg of carbon from CO2 emitted globally in 2006, more than half over three regions: the United States (25.5%, Europe (14.6, and East Asia (11.1. Despite receiving less than one percent of global emissions, the Arctic receives a uniformly dispersed concentration of emissions with 95.2% released at altitude where they have longer residence time than surface emissions. Finally, 85.2% of all

  3. Analysis of emission data from global commercial aviation: 2004 and 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkerson, J. T.; Jacobson, M. Z.; Malwitz, A.; Balasubramanian, S.; Wayson, R.; Fleming, G.; Naiman, A. D.; Lele, S. K.

    2010-07-01

    The global commercial aircraft fleet in 2006 flew 31.26 million flights, burned 188.20 million metric tons of fuel, and covered 38.68 billion kilometers. This activity emitted substantial amounts of fossil-fuel combustion products within the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere that affect atmospheric composition and climate. The emissions products, such as carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, sulfur compounds, and particulate matter, are not emitted uniformly over the Earth, so understanding the temporal and spatial distributions is important for modeling aviation's climate impacts. Global commercial aircraft emission data for 2004 and 2006, provided by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, were computed using the Federal Aviation Administration's Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT). Continuous improvement in methodologies, including changes in AEDT's horizontal track methodologies, and an increase in availability of data make some differences between the 2004 and 2006 inventories incomparable. Furthermore, the 2004 inventory contained a significant over-count due to an imperfect data merge and daylight savings error. As a result, the 2006 emissions inventory is considered more representative of actual flight activity. Here, we analyze both 2004 and 2006 emissions, focusing on the latter, and provide corrected totals for 2004. Analysis of 2006 flight data shows that 92.5% of fuel was burned in the Northern Hemisphere, 69.0% between 30N and 60N latitudes, and 74.6% was burned above 7 km. This activity led to 162.25 Tg of carbon from CO2 emitted globally in 2006, more than half over three regions: the United States (25.5%), Europe (14.6), and East Asia (11.1). Despite receiving less than one percent of global emissions, the Arctic receives a uniformly dispersed concentration of emissions with 95.2% released at altitude where they have longer residence time than surface emissions. Finally, 85.2% of all flights by number in 2006

  4. We keep on truckin': Trends in freight energy use and carbon emissions in 11 IEA countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eom, Jiyong; Schipper, Lee; Thompson, Lou

    2012-01-01

    Based on detailed national and international data on freight transportation, we analyze trends in freight CO 2 emissions in 11 IEA countries from the earliest year of data availability to 2007–2010. The cross-country comparison of the freight transportation sector indicates that per capita CO 2 emissions span a wide range and are mostly determined by local needs without full knowledge or coordination with policies and practices in other countries. Over the last several decades, while many developed countries have experienced decreased coupling between total freight activity (measured in tonne-km) and income, no major indication of decreased coupling between trucking and income was found. Rather, the coupling has been strengthened in many countries due to a continued increase in the share of trucking in total freight activity. The energy intensity of trucking has exhibited very large variation among the countries, and its recent international trends are mixed, providing greater challenges to reduce freight CO 2 emissions. Modal shift toward rail away from truck presents a sizeable opportunity to reduce freight CO 2 emissions, although the potential gain varies widely among the countries. - Highlights: ► We analyze trends in freight CO 2 emissions in 11 IEA countries. ► Many of them experienced decreased coupling between freight and income. ► No major indication of decoupling was found between trucking and income. ► The energy intensity of trucking exhibited very large variation. ► The trends of trucking energy intensity are mixed. ► There is a huge opportunity of reducing emissions by shifting toward rail.

  5. Global warming and its implication to emission reduction strategies for residential buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Xiaoming; Chen, Dong; Ren, Zhengen [CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), P.O. Box 56, Graham Road, Highett, Victoria 3190 (Australia)

    2011-04-15

    Carbon emission reduction schemes by improving residential building energy performance are often developed and assessed upon the assumption of current or stationary climates. This study investigated the heating and cooling (H-C) energy requirements and corresponding carbon emissions of residential houses in different climatic conditions in relation to global warming. This included assessing and quantifying the efficacy of emission reduction schemes based on emission reduction capacity (ERC). ERC represents the percentage of projected carbon emission reduction under changing climate in a specific year compared to the expected reduction by a scheme at current or stationary climates. It is shown that in a heating-dominated region with a cold climate or temperate climate with cold winter, ERC is projected to increase (or the projected emission reduction is higher than the expected reduction under the emission reduction scheme) in the presence of global warming. In contrast, in a cooling-dominated region with a hot dry or hot humid climate or an H-C balanced temperate climate, ERC is projected to decline. This implies that emission reductions will be lower than those initially targeted by the emission reduction scheme without consideration of global warming. Additionally, to reflect the changing carbon emission over years due to climate change, the average emission reduction capacity (AERC) was also proposed for the assessment of reduction schemes. It was concluded that the design and assessment of carbon emission reduction schemes for residential buildings need to move beyond its assumptions of a current or stationary climate to take into account climate change impacts. (author)

  6. Improvement of Global and Regional Mean Sea Level Trends Derived from all Altimetry Missions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ablain, Michael; Benveniste, Jérôme; Faugere, Yannice; Larnicol, Gilles; Cazenave, Anny; Johannessen, Johnny A.; Stammer, Detlef; Timms, Gary

    2012-07-01

    The global mean sea level (GMSL) has been calculated on a continual basis since January 1993 using data from satellite altimetry missions. The global mean sea level (MSL) deduced from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2 is increasing with a global trend of 3.2 mm from 1993 to 2010 applying the post glacial rebound (MSL Aviso website http://www.jason.oceanobs.com/msl). Besides, the regional sea level trends bring out an inhomogeneous repartition of the ocean elevation with local MSL slopes ranging from +/- 8 mm/year. A study published in 2009 [Ablain et al., 2009] has shown that the global MSL trend uncertainty was estimated at +/-0.6 mm/year with a confidence interval of 90%. The main sources of errors at global and regional scales are due to the orbit calculation and the wet troposphere correction. But others sea-level components have also a significant impact on the long-term stability of MSL as for instance the stability of instrumental parameters and the atmospheric corrections. Thanks to recent studies performed in Sea Level Essential Climate Variable Project in the frame of the Climate Change Initiative, an ESA Programme, in addition to activities performed within the SALP/CNES, strong improvements have been provided for the estimation of the global and regional MSL trends. In this paper, we propose to describe them; they concern the orbit calculation thanks to new gravity fields, the atmospheric corrections thanks to ERA-interim reanalyses, the wet troposphere corrections thanks to the stability improvement, and also empirical corrections allowing us to link regional time series together better. These improvements are described at global and regional scale for all the altimetry missions.

  7. Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppick, Andrew; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Stein, Michael L.

    2017-06-01

    Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to de-emphasize physical and statistical assumptions: examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for internal variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. However, given a limited data record and the presence of internal variability, estimating radiatively forced temperature trends in the historical record necessarily requires some assumptions. Ostensibly empirical methods can also involve an inherent conflict in assumptions: they require data records that are short enough for naive trend models to be applicable, but long enough for long-timescale internal variability to be accounted for. In the context of global mean temperatures, empirical methods that appear to de-emphasize assumptions can therefore produce misleading inferences, because the trend over the twentieth century is complex and the scale of temporal correlation is long relative to the length of the data record. We illustrate here how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable trend estimates and can allow for a wider array of questions to be addressed. In particular, the model allows one to distinguish, within a single statistical framework, between uncertainties in the shorter-term vs. longer-term response to radiative forcing, with implications not only on historical trends but also on uncertainties in future projections. We also investigate the consequence on inferred uncertainties of the choice of a statistical description of internal variability. While nonparametric methods may seem to avoid making explicit assumptions, we demonstrate how even misspecified parametric statistical methods, if attuned to the

  8. An updated climatology of surface dimethlysulfide concentrations and emission fluxes in the global ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lana, A.; Bell, T. G.; Simó, R.; Vallina, S. M.; Ballabrera-Poy, J.; Kettle, A. J.; Dachs, J.; Bopp, L.; Saltzman, E. S.; Stefels, J.; Johnson, J. E.; Liss, P. S.

    2011-03-01

    The potentially significant role of the biogenic trace gas dimethylsulfide (DMS) in determining the Earth's radiation budget makes it necessary to accurately reproduce seawater DMS distribution and quantify its global flux across the sea/air interface. Following a threefold increase of data (from 15,000 to over 47,000) in the global surface ocean DMS database over the last decade, new global monthly climatologies of surface ocean DMS concentration and sea-to-air emission flux are presented as updates of those constructed 10 years ago. Interpolation/extrapolation techniques were applied to project the discrete concentration data onto a first guess field based on Longhurst's biogeographic provinces. Further objective analysis allowed us to obtain the final monthly maps. The new climatology projects DMS concentrations typically in the range of 1-7 nM, with higher levels occurring in the high latitudes, and with a general trend toward increasing concentration in summer. The increased size and distribution of the observations in the DMS database have produced in the new climatology substantially lower DMS concentrations in the polar latitudes and generally higher DMS concentrations in regions that were severely undersampled 10 years ago, such as the southern Indian Ocean. Using the new DMS concentration climatology in conjunction with state-of-the-art parameterizations for the sea/air gas transfer velocity and climatological wind fields, we estimate that 28.1 (17.6-34.4) Tg of sulfur are transferred from the oceans into the atmosphere annually in the form of DMS. This represents a global emission increase of 17% with respect to the equivalent calculation using the previous climatology. This new DMS climatology represents a valuable tool for atmospheric chemistry, climate, and Earth System models.

  9. Global fire emissions estimates during 1997–2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. R. van der Werf

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate, land use, and other anthropogenic and natural drivers have the potential to influence fire dynamics in many regions. To develop a mechanistic understanding of the changing role of these drivers and their impact on atmospheric composition, long-term fire records are needed that fuse information from different satellite and in situ data streams. Here we describe the fourth version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED and quantify global fire emissions patterns during 1997–2016. The modeling system, based on the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA biogeochemical model, has several modifications from the previous version and uses higher quality input datasets. Significant upgrades include (1 new burned area estimates with contributions from small fires, (2 a revised fuel consumption parameterization optimized using field observations, (3 modifications that improve the representation of fuel consumption in frequently burning landscapes, and (4 fire severity estimates that better represent continental differences in burning processes across boreal regions of North America and Eurasia. The new version has a higher spatial resolution (0.25° and uses a different set of emission factors that separately resolves trace gas and aerosol emissions from temperate and boreal forest ecosystems. Global mean carbon emissions using the burned area dataset with small fires (GFED4s were 2.2  ×  1015 grams of carbon per year (Pg C yr−1 during 1997–2016, with a maximum in 1997 (3.0 Pg C yr−1 and minimum in 2013 (1.8 Pg C yr−1. These estimates were 11 % higher than our previous estimates (GFED3 during 1997–2011, when the two datasets overlapped. This net increase was the result of a substantial increase in burned area (37 %, mostly due to the inclusion of small fires, and a modest decrease in mean fuel consumption (−19 % to better match estimates from field studies, primarily in savannas and

  10. Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marotzke, Jochem; Forster, Piers M

    2015-01-29

    Most present-generation climate models simulate an increase in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) since 1998, whereas observations suggest a warming hiatus. It is unclear to what extent this mismatch is caused by incorrect model forcing, by incorrect model response to forcing or by random factors. Here we analyse simulations and observations of GMST from 1900 to 2012, and show that the distribution of simulated 15-year trends shows no systematic bias against the observations. Using a multiple regression approach that is physically motivated by surface energy balance, we isolate the impact of radiative forcing, climate feedback and ocean heat uptake on GMST--with the regression residual interpreted as internal variability--and assess all possible 15- and 62-year trends. The differences between simulated and observed trends are dominated by random internal variability over the shorter timescale and by variations in the radiative forcings used to drive models over the longer timescale. For either trend length, spread in simulated climate feedback leaves no traceable imprint on GMST trends or, consequently, on the difference between simulations and observations. The claim that climate models systematically overestimate the response to radiative forcing from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations therefore seems to be unfounded.

  11. Compilation of a global inventory of emissions of nitrous oxide

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwman, A.F.

    1995-01-01

    A global inventory with 1°x1° resolution was compiled of emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) to the atmosphere, including emissions from soils under natural vegetation, fertilized agricultural land, grasslands and animal excreta, biomass burning, forest clearing,

  12. Global estimation of CO emissions using three sets of satellite data for burned area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Atul K.

    Using three sets of satellite data for burned areas together with the tree cover imagery and a biogeochemical component of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) the global emissions of CO and associated uncertainties are estimated for the year 2000. The available fuel load (AFL) is calculated using the ISAM biogeochemical model, which accounts for the aboveground and surface fuel removed by land clearing for croplands and pasturelands, as well as the influence on fuel load of various ecosystem processes (such as stomatal conductance, evapotranspiration, plant photosynthesis and respiration, litter production, and soil organic carbon decomposition) and important feedback mechanisms (such as climate and fertilization feedback mechanism). The ISAM estimated global total AFL in the year 2000 was about 687 Pg AFL. All forest ecosystems account for about 90% of the global total AFL. The estimated global CO emissions based on three global burned area satellite data sets (GLOBSCAR, GBA, and Global Fire Emissions Database version 2 (GFEDv2)) for the year 2000 ranges between 320 and 390 Tg CO. Emissions from open fires are highest in tropical Africa, primarily due to forest cutting and burning. The estimated overall uncertainty in global CO emission is about ±65%, with the highest uncertainty occurring in North Africa and Middle East region (±99%). The results of this study suggest that the uncertainties in the calculated emissions stem primarily from the area burned data.

  13. A global gas flaring black carbon emission rate dataset from 1994 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Kan; Fu, Joshua S.

    2016-11-01

    Global flaring of associated petroleum gas is a potential emission source of particulate matters (PM) and could be notable in some specific regions that are in urgent need of mitigation. PM emitted from gas flaring is mainly in the form of black carbon (BC), which is a strong short-lived climate forcer. However, BC from gas flaring has been neglected in most global/regional emission inventories and is rarely considered in climate modeling. Here we present a global gas flaring BC emission rate dataset for the period 1994-2012 in a machine-readable format. We develop a region-dependent gas flaring BC emission factor database based on the chemical compositions of associated petroleum gas at various oil fields. Gas flaring BC emission rates are estimated using this emission factor database and flaring volumes retrieved from satellite imagery. Evaluation using a chemical transport model suggests that consideration of gas flaring emissions can improve model performance. This dataset will benefit and inform a broad range of research topics, e.g., carbon budget, air quality/climate modeling, and environmental/human exposure.

  14. Trends in on-road vehicle emissions and ambient air quality in Atlanta, Georgia, USA, from the late 1990s through 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijayaraghavan, Krish; DenBleyker, Allison; Ma, Lan; Lindhjem, Chris; Yarwood, Greg

    2014-07-01

    On-road vehicle emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) during 1995-2009 in the Atlanta Metropolitan Statistical Area were estimated using the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) model and data from the National Emissions Inventories and the State of Georgia. Statistically significant downward trends (computed using the nonparametric Theil-Sen method) in annual on-road CO, NO(x), and VOC emissions of 6.1%, 3.3%, and 6.0% per year, respectively, are noted during the 1995-2009 period despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled. The CO and NO(x) emission trends are correlated with statistically significant downward trends in ambient air concentrations of CO and NO(x) in Atlanta ranging from 8.0% to 11.8% per year and from 5.8% to 8.7% per year, respectively, during similar time periods. Weather-adjusted summertime ozone concentrations in Atlanta exhibited a statistically significant declining trend of 2.3% per year during 2001-2009. Although this trend coexists with the declining trends in on-road NO(x), VOC, and CO emissions, identifying the cause of the downward trend in ozone is complicated by reductions in multiple precursors from different source sectors. Implications: Large reductions in on-road vehicle emissions of CO and NO(x) in Atlanta from the late 1990s to 2009, despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled, contributed to a significant improvement in air quality through decreases in ambient air concentrations of CO and NO(x) during this time period. Emissions reductions in motor vehicles and other source sectors resulted in these improvements and the observed declining trend in ozone concentrations over the past decade. Although these historical trends cannot be extrapolated to the future because pollutant concentration contributions due to on-road vehicle emissions will likely become an increasingly smaller fraction of the atmospheric total, they provide an indication of

  15. Long-term trends in California mobile source emissions and ambient concentrations of black carbon and organic aerosol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Brian C; Goldstein, Allen H; Harley, Robert A

    2015-04-21

    A fuel-based approach is used to assess long-term trends (1970-2010) in mobile source emissions of black carbon (BC) and organic aerosol (OA, including both primary emissions and secondary formation). The main focus of this analysis is the Los Angeles Basin, where a long record of measurements is available to infer trends in ambient concentrations of BC and organic carbon (OC), with OC used here as a proxy for OA. Mobile source emissions and ambient concentrations have decreased similarly, reflecting the importance of on- and off-road engines as sources of BC and OA in urban areas. In 1970, the on-road sector accounted for ∼90% of total mobile source emissions of BC and OA (primary + secondary). Over time, as on-road engine emissions have been controlled, the relative importance of off-road sources has grown. By 2010, off-road engines were estimated to account for 37 ± 20% and 45 ± 16% of total mobile source contributions to BC and OA, respectively, in the Los Angeles area. This study highlights both the success of efforts to control on-road emission sources, and the importance of considering off-road engine and other VOC source contributions when assessing long-term emission and ambient air quality trends.

  16. Decomposition of factors determining the trend of CO{sub 2} emissions from car travel in Great Britain (1970-2000)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwon, Tae-Hyeong [The Korea Transport Institute (KOTI), 2311 Daehwa-dong, Ilsan-gu, Goyang-Shi, Gyeonggi-do, 411-701 (Korea, Republic of)

    2005-04-15

    Carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) is the most important of the greenhouse gases that are causing global warming. The transport sector currently accounts for more than one-quarter of CO{sub 2} emissions and more importantly its share in total emissions is increasing in most countries. This paper investigates the key factors in the change in CO{sub 2} emissions from car travel in Great Britain over the last 30 years. It attempts to disentangle determinants of growth in CO{sub 2} emissions from car travel, which has the largest share of emissions in road transport. The study is based on various decomposition analyses, starting from the IPAT identity. As summarised in the IPAT identity, the degree of the Impact of human activity on the environment is determined by changes in Population, Affluence (per-capita consumption) and Technology (environmental impact per quantity of consumption). In the case of CO{sub 2} emissions from car travel in Great Britain, the affluence (A) factor (car driving distance per person) was a dominant force for the growth of emissions over the last 30 years. Not only do people travel longer distances by cars than 30 years ago, but car occupancy rates have also decreased, contributing to the growth of car driving distance per person. Although technology (T) factors such as fuel efficiency and fuel substitution to diesel fuel partly cancelled out these growth effects of affluence factors, this contribution was relatively small. However, in the 1990s there emerged a different pattern in the trend. Of the affluence (A) factors, the growth rate of car trip distance per person weakened considerably. As for the technology (T) effect, the carbon intensity of car driving kept decreasing over this period. Therefore, although CO{sub 2} emissions from car travel (I) continued to increase, the growth rate became substantially lower than in the earlier periods. More detailed investigation into the determinants of both affluence (A) factors and technology (T

  17. Global trends and their impact on city logistics management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tadić Snežana R.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Changes in economic and social environments are more dynamic, and survival in the market requires a wide range, increase efficiency and quality of logistics services. The competitiveness of the region and the city, as the leader of economic development, depends on the efficiency of logistics solutions that must be adaptive to new conditions and demands of the market. This paper presents some of the most important global trends in terms of impact on the urban logistics. In order to define sustainable solutions, the analysis of presented social, economic, technological, environmental and other trends should be integral part of the city logistics planning and management.

  18. Trends of greenhouse gas emissions from the road transport sector in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Anil; Gangopadhyay, S.; Nanda, P.K.; Bhattacharya, S.; Sharma, C.; Bhan, C.

    2008-01-01

    The road transport sector is the largest consumer of commercial fuel energy within the transportation system in India and accounts for nearly 35% of the total liquid commercial fuel consumption by all sectors. Gasoline and diesel consumption for road transportation have quadrupled between 1980 and 2000 due to about nine times increase in the number of vehicles and four-fold increase in freight and passenger travel demands. The paper elaborates the trends of energy consumption and consequent emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O and ozone precursor gases like CO, NO x and NMVOC in the road transport sector in India for the period from 1980 to 2000. For the first time, efforts have been made to apportion the fuels, both diesel and gasoline, across different categories of vehicles operating on the Indian roads. In order to generate more comprehensive and complete emission estimates, additionally, other minor fuel types like light diesel oil and fuel oil along with lubricants have also been taken into account. Emission estimates have revealed that nearly 27 Mt of CO 2 were emitted in 1980, increasing to about 105 Mt in 2000. Similar trends have also been observed for other gases. Further scope for improvements in emission estimation is possible by generating country specific emission factors for different vehicle categories and improvement in documentation of fuel consumption at segregated levels by fuel types and vehicle types

  19. Global volcanic emissions: budgets, plume chemistry and impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mather, T. A.

    2012-12-01

    Over the past few decades our understanding of global volcanic degassing budgets, plume chemistry and the impacts of volcanic emissions on our atmosphere and environment has been revolutionized. Global volcanic emissions budgets are needed if we are to make effective use of regional and global atmospheric models in order to understand the consequences of volcanic degassing on global environmental evolution. Traditionally volcanic SO2 budgets have been the best constrained but recent efforts have seen improvements in the quantification of the budgets of other environmentally important chemical species such as CO2, the halogens (including Br and I) and trace metals (including measurements relevant to trace metal atmospheric lifetimes and bioavailability). Recent measurements of reactive trace gas species in volcanic plumes have offered intriguing hints at the chemistry occurring in the hot environment at volcanic vents and during electrical discharges in ash-rich volcanic plumes. These reactive trace species have important consequences for gas plume chemistry and impacts, for example, in terms of the global fixed nitrogen budget, volcanically induced ozone destruction and particle fluxes to the atmosphere. Volcanically initiated atmospheric chemistry was likely to have been particularly important before biological (and latterly anthropogenic) processes started to dominate many geochemical cycles, with important consequences in terms of the evolution of the nitrogen cycle and the role of particles in modulating the Earth's climate. There are still many challenges and open questions to be addressed in this fascinating area of science.

  20. Assessment of Global Emissions, Local Emissions and Immissions of Different Heating Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georg Erdmann

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses and compares existing and new technologies for space heating in Germany (e.g., heat pumps, and solar thermal and wood pellet systems in terms of their environmental impacts. The various technologies were analyzed within the context of the new German legislation. The assessment was carried out on three levels: 1. Global emissions: a life cycle assessment was carried out in order to find the global environmental footprint of the various technologies; 2. Local emissions: the effects of local emissions on human health were analyzed; and 3. Immissions: the immissions were evaluated for the various technologies using a dispersion calculation. A special feature of this study is the substitution of frequently used database emission values by values obtained from field studies and our own measurements. The results show large differences between the different technologies: while electric heat pumps performed quite well in most categories, wood pellet systems performed the best with respect to climate change. The latter, however, are associated with high impacts in other environmental impact categories and on a local scale. The promotion of some technologies (especially systems based on fuel oil, a mixture of fuel oil and rapeseed oil, or a mixture of natural gas and biomethane by the newly introduced German legislation is doubtful. In terms of the immissions of wood pellet systems, it can be concluded that, even for extremely unfavorable meteorological conditions, the regulatory limits are not exceeded and the heating systems have a negligible influence on the total PM load in the ambient air.

  1. Trends in vehicular emissions in China's mega cities from 1995 to 2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Haikun; Fu Lixin; Zhou Yu; Du Xuan; Ge Weihua

    2010-01-01

    Multiyear inventories of vehicular emissions in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou from 1995 through 2005 have been developed in this paper to study the vehicle emissions trends in China's mega cities during the past decade. The results show that the vehicular emissions of CO, HC, NO x and PM 10 have begun to slow their growth rates and perhaps even to decline in recent years due to the implementation of measures to control vehicular emissions in these cities. However, vehicular CO 2 emissions have substantially increased and still continue to grow due to little fuel economy improvement. Passenger cars and large vehicles (including heavy duty trucks and buses) are the major sources of vehicular CO 2 and CO emissions while large vehicles were responsible for nearly 70% and 80% of the vehicular NO x and PM 10 emissions in these mega cities. Motorcycles are also important contributors to vehicular emissions in Guangzhou and Shanghai. - The vehicular emissions (except CO 2 ) in China's mega cities have begun to slow their rates of growth and even to decline during the past decade.

  2. Global emissions and models of photochemically active compounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Penner, J.E.; Atherton, C.S.; Graedel, T.E.

    1993-01-01

    Anthropogenic emissions from industrial activity, fossil fuel combustion, and biomass burning are now known to be large enough (relative to natural sources) to perturb the chemistry of vast regions of the troposphere. A goal of the IGAC Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA) is to provide authoritative and reliable emissions inventories on a 1 degree x 1 degree grid. When combined with atmospheric photochemical models, these high quality emissions inventories may be used to predict the concentrations of major photochemical products. Comparison of model results with measurements of pertinent species allows us to understand whether there are major shortcomings in our understanding of tropospheric photochemistry, the budgets and transport of trace species, and their effects in the atmosphere. Through this activity, we are building the capability to make confident predictions of the future consequences of anthropogenic emissions. This paper compares IGAC recommended emissions inventories for reactive nitrogen and sulfur dioxide to those that have been in use previously. We also present results from the three-dimensional LLNL atmospheric chemistry model that show how emissions of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides might potentially affect tropospheric ozone and OH concentrations and how emissions of anthropogenic sulfur increase sulfate aerosol loadings

  3. Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frölicher, Thomas L; Paynter, David J

    2015-01-01

    The transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) is a highly policy-relevant quantity in climate science. The TCRE suggests that peak warming is linearly proportional to cumulative carbon emissions and nearly independent of the emissions scenario. Here, we use simulations of the Earth System Model (ESM) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to show that global mean surface temperature may increase by 0.5 °C after carbon emissions are stopped at 2 °C global warming, implying an increase in the coefficient relating global warming to cumulative carbon emissions on multi-centennial timescales. The simulations also suggest a 20% lower quota on cumulative carbon emissions allowed to achieve a policy-driven limit on global warming. ESM estimates from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5–ESMs) qualitatively agree on this result, whereas Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) simulations, used in the IPCC 5th assessment report to assess the robustness of TCRE on multi-centennial timescales, suggest a post-emissions decrease in temperature. The reason for this discrepancy lies in the smaller simulated realized warming fraction in CMIP5–ESMs, including GFDL ESM2M, than in EMICs when carbon emissions increase. The temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions can be characterized by three different phases and the linear TCRE framework is only valid during the first phase when carbon emissions increase. For longer timescales, when emissions tape off, two new metrics are introduced that better characterize the time-dependent temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions: the equilibrium climate response to cumulative carbon emissions and the multi-millennial climate response to cumulative carbon emissions. (letter)

  4. Role of innovative technologies under the global zero emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tokimatsu, Koji; Konishi, Satoshi; Ishihara, Keiichi; Tezuka, Tetsuo; Yasuoka, Rieko; Nishio, Masahiro

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • We modeled a zero emissions scenario based on the A1T scenario of IPCC-SRES. • We conducted global modeling by minimizing costs of energy, biomass, and materials. • A variety of advanced technology innovations were considered and incorporated. • Results suggest that zero emissions scenario may be possible in this century. • We revealed energy supply structure under the zero emissions scenarios. - Abstract: This study investigated zero emissions scenarios with following two originalities compared to various existing studies. One is that we based on A1T society of SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenario) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) compared to existing studies on those of B1 or B2. The second one is that various innovative technologies were considered and incorporated, such as biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and advanced nuclear technologies including hydrogen or synfuel production. We conducted global modeling over the period 2010–2150 in which energy, materials, and biomass and foods supply costs were minimized by linear programming. We found following features of energy supply structure in A1T scenario. Since the electric demand in A1T scenario in 2100 is two times larger than the others, (1) renewable energy which solely produce electricity, nuclear, and fossil energy with CCS (FECCS) especially coal are main sources of electricity, (2) renewable which can supply heat, namely BECCS and geothermal, satisfies the sector, and (3) hydrogen from coal is introduced in transport sector. It can be concluded that the zero emission energy systems with global economic growth will be possible, by development and deployment of ambitious advanced energy technologies.

  5. AMSR-E/Aqua Monthly Global Microwave Land Surface Emissivity

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set is a global land emissivity product using passive microwave observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System...

  6. Trends in European background air reflect reductions in primary emissions of PCBs and PBDEs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, Jasmin K; Gioia, Rosalinda; Breivik, Knut; Steinnes, Eiliv; Scheringer, Martin; Jones, Kevin C

    2010-09-01

    Data are presented for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyls ethers (PBDEs) in passive air samplers (PAS) collected along a rural/remote latitudinal transect from southern UK to northern Norway during 2004-2008. This study is part of an ongoing campaign, using semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) as PAS over two year intervals since 1994. Absolute sequestered amounts of selected PCB congeners have decreased in a first order fashion between 1994-2008, with the average time of 8.4+/-3.2 years for atmospheric concentrations to decline by 50%. PCBs have continued to fractionate with latitude during this period. PBDE concentrations declined by 50% between 2000 and 2008 every 2.2+/-0.4 years. Results are discussed in terms of sources, long-range atmospheric transport, global fractionation, and clearance processes. It is concluded that the spatial and temporal trends in background European air mainly reflect the strength of primary diffusive emissions of these compounds and subsequently their ongoing declines. The direct evidence for this is similar rates of decline at all the sites; similar rates of decline for all congeners; no systematic change in the fractionation pattern since 1994. The latest results indicate a reduction in the rate of decline for PCBs (and hence in primary emissions).

  7. Inter-annual variability and trend detection of urban CO2, CH4 and CO emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauvaux, T.; Deng, A.; Gurney, K. R.; Nathan, B.; Ye, X.; Oda, T.; Karion, A.; Hardesty, M.; Harvey, R. M.; Richardson, S.; Whetstone, J. R.; Hutyra, L.; Davis, K. J.; Brewer, A.; Gaudet, B. J.; Turnbull, J. C.; Sweeney, C.; Shepson, P. B.; Miles, N.; Bonin, T.; Wu, K.; Balashov, N. V.

    2017-12-01

    The Indianapolis Flux (INFLUX) Experiment has conducted an unprecedented volume of atmospheric greenhouse gas measurements across the Indianapolis metropolitan area from aircraft, remote-sensing, and tower-based observational platforms. Assimilated in a high-resolution urban inversion system, atmospheric data provide an independent constraint to existing emission products, directly supporting the integration of economic data into urban emission systems. We present here the first multi-year assessment of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions from anthropogenic activities in comparison to multiple bottom-up emission products. Biogenic CO2 fluxes are quantified using an optimized biogeochemical model at high resolution, further refined within the atmospheric inversion system. We also present the first sector-based inversion by jointly assimilating CO2 and CO mixing ratios to quantify the dominant sectors of emissions over the entire period (2012-2015). The detected trend in CO2 emissions over 2012-2015 from both bottom-up emission products and tower-based inversions agree within a few percent, with a decline in city emissions over the 3-year time period. Major changes occur at the primary power plant, suggesting a decrease in energy production within the city limits. The joint assimilation of CO2 and CO mixing ratios confirms the absence of trends in other sectors. However, top-down and bottom-up approaches tend to disagree annually, with a decline in urban emissions suggested by atmospheric data in 2014 that is several months earlier than is observed in the bottom-up products. Concerning CH4 emissions, the inversion shows a decrease since mid-2014 which may be due to lower landfill emissions or lower energy consumption (from coal and natural gas). This first demonstration of a high-accuracy long-term greenhouse gas measurement network merged with a high-resolution bottom-up information system highlights the potential for informing

  8. Rapid decline in carbon monoxide emissions and export from East Asia between years 2005 and 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Bo; Chevallier, Frederic; Ciais, Philippe; Yin, Yi; Deeter, Merritt N.; Worden, Helen M.; Wang, Yilong; Zhang, Qiang; He, Kebin

    2018-04-01

    Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite and ground-based carbon monoxide (CO) measurements both suggest a widespread downward trend in CO concentrations over East Asia during the period 2005–2016. This negative trend is inconsistent with global bottom-up inventories of CO emissions, which show a small increase or stable emissions in this region. We try to reconcile the observed CO trend with emission inventories using an atmospheric inversion of the MOPITT CO data that estimates emissions from primary sources, secondary production, and chemical sinks of CO. The atmospheric inversion indicates a ~ ‑2% yr‑1 decrease in emissions from primary sources in East Asia from 2005–2016. The decreasing emissions are mainly caused by source reductions in China. The regional MEIC inventory for China is the only bottom up estimate consistent with the inversion-diagnosed decrease of CO emissions. According to the MEIC data, decreasing CO emissions from four main sectors (iron and steel industries, residential sources, gasoline-powered vehicles, and construction materials industries) in China explain 76% of the inversion-based trend of East Asian CO emissions. This result suggests that global inventories underestimate the recent decrease of CO emission factors in China which occurred despite increasing consumption of carbon-based fuels, and is driven by rapid technological changes with improved combustion efficiency and emission control measures.

  9. Global trends in wildfire - perceptions and realities in a changing world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doerr, Stefan; Santin, Cristina

    2017-04-01

    Wildfire has been an important process affecting the Earth's surface and atmosphere for over 350 million years and human societies have coexisted with fire since their emergence. Many consider wildfire as an accelerating problem, with widely held perceptions both in the media and scientific papers of increasing fire occurrence, severity and resulting losses. Whilst fire and associated impacts have indeed increased in some regions, such parts of western North America, Canada and Russia, fire has been decreasing in other regions such as African savannas. Overall, global area burned appears to have changed little over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago. Regarding fire severity, limited data are available. For the western USA, they indicate little change overall, and also that area burned at high severity has overall declined compared to pre-European settlement. Direct fatalities from fire and economic losses also show no clear trends over the past three decades. Trends in indirect impacts, such as health problems from smoke or disruption to social functioning may indeed be on the rise, however, they remain insufficiently quantified to be thoroughly examined. Notwithstanding these general observations, the changes in global fire distribution are of concern due to, for example, their detrimental impacts on peat and soil carbon stores in boreal and some tropical regions, or air pollution levels in SE-Asia. These and other impacts are likely to accelerate in a future warmer climate. This presentation aims to contribute to reducing misconceptions in fire trends and to facilitating a more informed understanding of the realities of global fire.

  10. Analysis of global water vapour trends from satellite measurements in the visible spectral range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Mieruch

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Global water vapour total column amounts have been retrieved from spectral data provided by the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME flying on ERS-2, which was launched in April 1995, and the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY onboard ENVISAT launched in March 2002. For this purpose the Air Mass Corrected Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (AMC-DOAS approach has been used. The combination of the data from both instruments provides us with a long-term global data set spanning more than 11 years with the potential of extension up to 2020 by GOME-2 data on MetOp.

    Using linear and non-linear methods from time series analysis and standard statistics the trends of H2O columns and their errors have been calculated. In this study, factors affecting the trend such as the length of the time series, the magnitude of the variability of the noise, and the autocorrelation of the noise are investigated. Special emphasis has been placed on the calculation of the statistical significance of the observed trends, which reveal significant local changes from −5% per year to +5% per year. These significant trends are distributed over the whole globe. Increasing trends have been calculated for Greenland, East Europe, Siberia and Oceania, whereas decreasing trends have been observed for the northwest USA, Central America, Amazonia, Central Africa and the Arabian Peninsular.

  11. Isoprene emission response to drought and the impact on global atmospheric chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Xiaoyan; Guenther, Alex; Potosnak, Mark; Geron, Chris; Seco, Roger; Karl, Thomas; Kim, Saewung; Gu, Lianhong; Pallardy, Stephen

    2018-06-01

    Biogenic isoprene emissions play a very important role in atmospheric chemistry. These emissions are strongly dependent on various environmental conditions, such as temperature, solar radiation, plant water stress, ambient ozone and CO2 concentrations, and soil moisture. Current biogenic emission models (i.e., Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature, MEGAN) can simulate emission responses to some of the major driving variables, such as short-term variations in temperature and solar radiation, but the other factors are either missing or poorly represented. In this paper, we propose a new modelling approach that considers the physiological effects of drought stress on plant photosynthesis and isoprene emissions for use in the MEGAN3 biogenic emission model. We test the MEGAN3 approach by integrating the algorithm into the existing MEGAN2.1 biogenic emission model framework embedded into the global Community Land Model of the Community Earth System Model (CLM4.5/CESM1.2). Single-point simulations are compared against available field measurements at the Missouri Ozarks AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) field site. The modelling results show that the MEGAN3 approach of using of a photosynthesis parameter (Vcmax) and soil wetness factor (βt) to determine the drought activity factor leads to better simulated isoprene emissions in non-drought and drought periods. The global simulation with the MEGAN3 approach predicts a 17% reduction in global annual isoprene emissions, in comparison to the value predicted using the default CLM4.5/MEGAN2.1 without any drought effect. This reduction leads to changes in surface ozone and oxidants in the areas where the reduction of isoprene emissions is observed. Based on the results presented in this study, we conclude that it is important to simulate the drought-induced response of biogenic isoprene emission accurately in the coupled Earth System model.

  12. From Oil Crisis to Climate Change. Understanding CO2 Emission Trends in IEA Countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unander, F.

    2003-11-01

    OECD CO2 emissions from fuel combustion increased 13% between 1990 and 2001. This signals an important shift since, over the 1973 to 1990 period, emissions only increased by 3.4%. As a result, CO2 emissions from energy use (fuel combustion) contributed 81.1% of total OECD greenhouse gas emissions in 2001 compared to 77.7% in 1990. As these figures make clear, reducing CO2 emissions from fuel combustion constitutes a key challenge to combat climate change. Developing and successfully implementing the most efficient policies for reducing CO2 emissions requires a good understanding of how factors such as income, prices, demography, economic structure, lifestyle, climate, energy efficiency and fuel mix affect energy use and resulting CO2 emissions. This paper presents selected results from the analysis of CO2 developments included in the IEA publication 'From Oil Crisis to Climate Challenge: 30 Years of Energy Use in IEA Countries'. The paper gives a brief overview of aggregate CO2 emission trends and of how recent developments in selected IEA countries compare to emissions levels implied by the Kyoto targets. A deeper understanding of the aggregate trends is provided by showing results from a decomposition analysis and by discussing developments in key end-use sectors. The full publication presents a more detailed analysis of how various factors have shaped energy use patterns and CO2 emissions since 1973. The analysis draws on a newly developed database with detailed information on energy use in the manufacturing, household, service and transport sectors. The database represents the most disaggregated information available on a consistent basis across countries and sectors. The study uses quantitative measures to illustrate the forces that drive or restrain energy use. These measures - or indicators - include: activities such as manufacturing output or heated-floor-area of homes; structural developments such as changes in manufacturing output mix or changes in the

  13. The role of natural climatic variation in perturbing the observed global mean temperature trend

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

    2011-02-15

    Controversy continues to prevail concerning the reality of anthropogenically-induced climatic warming. One of the principal issues is the cause of the hiatus in the current global warming trend. There appears to be a widely held view that climatic change warming should exhibit an inexorable upwards trend, a view that implies there is no longer any input by climatic variability in the existing climatic system. The relative roles of climatic change and climatic variability are examined here using the same coupled global climatic model. For the former, the model is run using a specified CO{sub 2} growth scenario, while the latter consisted of a multi-millennial simulation where any climatic variability was attributable solely to internal processes within the climatic system. It is shown that internal climatic variability can produce global mean surface temperature anomalies of {+-}0.25 K and sustained positive and negative anomalies sufficient to account for the anomalous warming of the 1940s as well as the present hiatus in the observed global warming. The characteristics of the internally-induced negative temperature anomalies are such that if this internal natural variability is the cause of the observed hiatus, then a resumption of the observed global warming trend is to be expected within the next few years. (orig.)

  14. Estimated HCFC-22 emissions for 1990-2050 in China and the increasing contribution to global emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhifang; Bie, Pengju; Wang, Ziyuan; Zhang, Zhaoyang; Jiang, Hanyu; Xu, Weiguang; Zhang, Jianbo; Hu, Jianxin

    2016-05-01

    Chlorodifluoromethane (CHClF2, HCFC-22) is a widely used refrigerant and foaming agent that is not only an ozone-depleting substance (ozone depletion potential (ODP), 0.04) but also a greenhouse gas (global warming potential (GWP), 1780). A comprehensive historical emission inventory for 1990-2014 was produced using a bottom-up method, and a projection through to 2050 was made for China. The results demonstrated that historical emissions increased sharply from 0.2 Gg/yr in 1990 to 127.2 Gg/yr in 2014. Room air-conditioners (RACs), industrial and commercial refrigeration (ICR), and extruded polystyrene (XPS) were three primary emission sources, and accounted for an average of 95.4% of the total emissions over the period studied. The percentage of global HCFC-22 emissions originating from China significantly increased from 0.1% in 1990 to 31.6% in 2012, with an average growth rate of 1.4% per year. Under the Montreal Protocol phasing-out (MPPO) scenario, future emissions were expected to reach a peak of 133.5 Gg/yr in 2016 and then continuously decline to 10.2 Gg/yr in 2050. The accumulative reduction for 2015-2050 would be 5533.8 Gg (equivalent to 221.4 CFC-11-eq Gg and 9850.1 CO2-eq Tg), which is approximately equivalent to the total CO2 emission for China in 2012 (9900 Tg) (Olivier et al., 2013), compared with the no Montreal Protocol scenario (NMP). Under the MPPO scenario, two cases were analyzed to explore the future emission ranges in China. A comparison between the two cases implied that the choice of emission reduction policy will have a considerable impact on HCFC-22 emissions.

  15. International Assistance for Low-Emission Development Planning: Coordinated Low Emissions Assistance Network (CLEAN) Inventory of Activities and Tools--Preliminary Trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, S.; Benioff, R.

    2011-05-01

    The Coordinated Low Emissions Assistance Network (CLEAN) is a voluntary network of international practitioners supporting low-emission planning in developing countries. The network seeks to improve quality of support through sharing project information, tools, best practices and lessons, and by fostering harmonized assistance. CLEAN has developed an inventory to track and analyze international technical support and tools for low-carbon planning activities in developing countries. This paper presents a preliminary analysis of the inventory to help identify trends in assistance activities and tools available to support developing countries with low-emission planning.

  16. Potential contribution of the Clean Coal Program to reducing global emissions of greenhouse gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blasing, T.J.

    1992-01-01

    Environmental considerations of Clean Coal Program (CCP) initially focused on reducing emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) and nitrogen oxides (NO x ) to the atmosphere. However, it has also become apparent that some Clean Coal Technologies (CCTs) may contribute appreciably to reducing emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), thereby diminishing the rate of any global warming that may result from greenhouse effects. This is particularly true for CCTs involving replacement of a major portion of an existing facility and/or providing the option of using a different fuel form (the repowering CCTs). Because the subject of global-scale climate warming is receiving increased attention, the effect of CCTs on Co 2 emissions has become a topic of increasing interest. The Final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for the Clean Coal Technology Demonstration Program projected that with full implementation of those repowering CCTs that would be most effective at reducing CO 2 emissions (Pressurized Fluidized Bed and Coal Gasification Fuel Cell technologies), the national fossil-fuel Co 2 emissions by the year 2010 would be roughly 90% of the emissions that would occur with no implementation of any CCTs by the same date. It is the purpose of this paper to examine the global effect of such a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and to compare that effect with effects of other strategies for reducing global greenhouse gas emissions

  17. Global freshwater thermal emissions from steam-electric power plants with once-through cooling systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raptis, Catherine E.; Pfister, Stephan

    2016-01-01

    Large quantities of heat are rejected into freshwater bodies from power plants employing once-through cooling systems, often leading to temperature increases that disturb aquatic ecosystems. The objective of this work was to produce a high resolution global picture of power-related freshwater thermal emissions and to analyse the technological, geographical and chronological patterns behind them. The Rankine cycle was systematically solved for ∼2400 generating units with once-through cooling systems, distinguishing between simple and cogenerative cycles, giving the rejected heat as a direct output. With large unit sizes, low efficiencies, and high capacity factors, nuclear power plants reject 3.7 GW heat into freshwater on average, contrasting with 480 MW rejected from coal and gas power plants. Together, nuclear and coal-fuelled power plants from the 1970s and 1980s account for almost 50% of the rejected heat worldwide, offering motivation for their phasing out in the future. Globally, 56% of the emissions are rejected into rivers, pointing to potential areas of high thermal pollution, with the rest entering lakes and reservoirs. The outcome of this work can be used to further investigate the identified thermal emission hotspots, and to calculate regionalized water temperature increase and related impacts in environmental, energy-water nexus studies and beyond. - Highlights: • The thermodynamic cycles of ∼2400 power units with once-through cooling were solved. • Global freshwater heat emissions depend on technology, geography & chronology. • Half the global emissions come from nuclear and coal plants from the 70s & 80s. • Hotspots of freshwater thermal emissions were identified globally. • Global georeferenced emissions are available for use in water temperature models.

  18. Simplifiying global biogeochemistry models to evaluate methane emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, S.; Alonso-Contes, C.

    2017-12-01

    Process-based models are important tools to quantify wetland methane emissions, particularly also under climate change scenarios, evaluating these models is often cumbersome as they are embedded in larger land-surface models where fluctuating water table and the carbon cycle (including new readily decomposable plant material) are predicted variables. Here, we build on these large scale models but instead of modeling water table and plant productivity we provide values as boundary conditions. In contrast, aerobic and anaerobic decomposition, as well as soil column transport of oxygen and methane are predicted by the model. Because of these simplifications, the model has the potential to be more readily adaptable to the analysis of field-scale data. Here we determine the sensitivity of the model to specific setups, parameter choices, and to boundary conditions in order to determine set-up needs and inform what critical auxiliary variables need to be measured in order to better predict field-scale methane emissions from wetland soils. To that end we performed a global sensitivity analysis that also considers non-linear interactions between processes. The global sensitivity analysis revealed, not surprisingly, that water table dynamics (both mean level and amplitude of fluctuations), and the rate of the carbon cycle (i.e. net primary productivity) are critical determinants of methane emissions. The depth-scale where most of the potential decomposition occurs also affects methane emissions. Different transport mechanisms are compensating each other to some degree: If plant conduits are constrained, methane emissions by diffusive flux and ebullition compensate to some degree, however annual emissions are higher when plants help to bypass methanotrophs in temporally unsaturated upper layers. Finally, while oxygen consumption by plant roots help creating anoxic conditions it has little effect on overall methane emission. Our initial sensitivity analysis helps guiding

  19. Investigational report on the trend of measures for global warming; Chikyu ondanka taisaku doko chosa hokokusho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-03-01

    To know the trend of measures taken for global warming, conducted were overseas surveys, participation in academic society meetings, and literature surveys. The phaseout time of all ozone depleting substances responsible for the ozonospherial destruction was determined for both developed and developing countries in the 7th Meeting of countries which concluded the Montreal Protocol. As information on measures for protecting the ozonosphere, introduced was activities under United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). New fluorine containing ethers were introduced as cleaning solvent which causes no ozonospherial destruction and is low in global warming index. Toxicity data were obtained on HFC-236ea and HFC-236fa which are promising substitutes in HCFC foaming and refrigerant fields. The paper introduced an outline of the 1st Meeting of countries which concluded the Framework Convention on Climate Change held in 1995. According to the report on the National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection of the Netherlands, the amount of emission of fluorine containing greenhouse effect gas (in CO2 conversion) reached 8-14% of all the amount of greenhouse effect gas emitted in 1990 unless the control is reinforced. An outline of the TEWI-3 project was introduced which is useful for comparing effects of substitution technologies on global warming. 14 refs., 11 figs., 29 tabs.

  20. Drivers of Global Vegetation Biomass Trends between 1988 and 2008

    KAUST Repository

    McCabe, Matthew; Liu, Yi; Evans, Jason; De Jeu, Richard; van Dijk, Albert

    2013-01-01

    Vegetation optical depth (VOD) is an indicator of the vegetation water content of both woody and leaf components in terrestrial biomass as derived from passive microwave observations. VOD is distinctly different from products derived from optical remote sensing: it is less prone to saturation in dense canopy; is sensitive to both photosynthetic and non-photosynthetic biomass; is less affected by atmospheric conditions; and is of coarser spatial resolution. Here, VOD retrievals from a series of sensors are blended to produce a time series from 1988 through to 2008, and a global analysis is undertaken to quantify and attribute global VOD trends over the same period. We conduct Mann-Kendall linear trend tests on annual average VOD to identify regions of significant change. Patterns for these regions were evaluated against independent datasets to diagnose the underlying cause of the observed trends. Results indicate that: (1) over grassland and shrubland, VOD patterns correspond strongly to temporal precipitation patterns; (2) over croplands, annual average VOD shows a general increase that corresponds to reported crop yield patterns and can be attributed to a combination of precipitation patterns and agricultural improvement; (3) over humid tropical forest, the spatial pattern of VOD decline agrees well with deforestation patterns identified in previous studies; and (4) over boreal forests, regional VOD declines can be attributed to a combination of fires and logging. We conclude that VOD can be used to estimate and interpret global changes in total above ground vegetation biomass. We expect that this new observationally based remote sensing data source will be of considerable interest to hydrological, agricultural, climate change and carbon cycle studies, and provide new insights into these and related process investigations.

  1. Drivers of Global Vegetation Biomass Trends between 1988 and 2008

    KAUST Repository

    McCabe, Matthew

    2013-12-01

    Vegetation optical depth (VOD) is an indicator of the vegetation water content of both woody and leaf components in terrestrial biomass as derived from passive microwave observations. VOD is distinctly different from products derived from optical remote sensing: it is less prone to saturation in dense canopy; is sensitive to both photosynthetic and non-photosynthetic biomass; is less affected by atmospheric conditions; and is of coarser spatial resolution. Here, VOD retrievals from a series of sensors are blended to produce a time series from 1988 through to 2008, and a global analysis is undertaken to quantify and attribute global VOD trends over the same period. We conduct Mann-Kendall linear trend tests on annual average VOD to identify regions of significant change. Patterns for these regions were evaluated against independent datasets to diagnose the underlying cause of the observed trends. Results indicate that: (1) over grassland and shrubland, VOD patterns correspond strongly to temporal precipitation patterns; (2) over croplands, annual average VOD shows a general increase that corresponds to reported crop yield patterns and can be attributed to a combination of precipitation patterns and agricultural improvement; (3) over humid tropical forest, the spatial pattern of VOD decline agrees well with deforestation patterns identified in previous studies; and (4) over boreal forests, regional VOD declines can be attributed to a combination of fires and logging. We conclude that VOD can be used to estimate and interpret global changes in total above ground vegetation biomass. We expect that this new observationally based remote sensing data source will be of considerable interest to hydrological, agricultural, climate change and carbon cycle studies, and provide new insights into these and related process investigations.

  2. Global atmospheric emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from 1960 to 2008 and future predictions

    OpenAIRE

    Shen, Huizhong; Huang, Ye; Wang, Rong; Zhu, Dan; Li, Wei; Shen, Guofeng; Wang, Bin; Zhang, Yanyan; Chen, Yuanchen; Lu, Yan; Chen, Han; Li, Tongchao; Sun, Kang; Li, Bengang; Liu, Wenxin

    2013-01-01

    Global atmospheric emissions of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from 69 major sources were estimated for a period from 1960 to 2030. Regression models and a technology split method were used to estimate country and time specific emission factors, resulting in a new estimate of PAH emission factor variation among different countries and over time. PAH emissions in 2007 were spatially resolved to 0.1°× 0.1° grids based on a newly developed global high-resolution fuel combustion inven...

  3. Global ocean carbon uptake: magnitude, variability and trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Wanninkhof

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The globally integrated sea–air anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2 flux from 1990 to 2009 is determined from models and data-based approaches as part of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP project. Numerical methods include ocean inverse models, atmospheric inverse models, and ocean general circulation models with parameterized biogeochemistry (OBGCMs. The median value of different approaches shows good agreement in average uptake. The best estimate of anthropogenic CO2 uptake for the time period based on a compilation of approaches is −2.0 Pg C yr−1. The interannual variability in the sea–air flux is largely driven by large-scale climate re-organizations and is estimated at 0.2 Pg C yr−1 for the two decades with some systematic differences between approaches. The largest differences between approaches are seen in the decadal trends. The trends range from −0.13 (Pg C yr−1 decade−1 to −0.50 (Pg C yr−1 decade−1 for the two decades under investigation. The OBGCMs and the data-based sea–air CO2 flux estimates show appreciably smaller decadal trends than estimates based on changes in carbon inventory suggesting that methods capable of resolving shorter timescales are showing a slowing of the rate of ocean CO2 uptake. RECCAP model outputs for five decades show similar differences in trends between approaches.

  4. Carbon emission intensity in electricity production: A global analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ang, B.W.; Su, Bin

    2016-01-01

    We study changes in the aggregate carbon intensity (ACI) for electricity at the global and country levels. The ACI is defined as the energy-related CO_2 emissions in electricity production divided by the electricity produced. It is a performance indicator since a decrease in its value is a desirable outcome from the environmental and climate change viewpoints. From 1990 to 2013, the ACI computed at the global level decreased only marginally. However, fairly substantial decreases were observed in many countries. This apparent anomaly arises from a geographical shift in global electricity production with countries having a high ACI increasingly taking up a larger electricity production share. It is found that globally and in most major electricity producing countries, reduction in their ACI was due mainly to improvements in the thermal efficiency of electricity generation rather than to fuel switching. Estimates of the above-mentioned effects are made using LMDI decomposition analysis. Our study reveals several challenges in reducing global CO_2 emissions from the electricity production sector although technically the reduction potential for the sector is known to be great. - Highlights: •Variations of aggregate carbon intensity (ACI) for electricity of world countries are analysed. •Main drivers of changes in ACI of major electricity producing countries are studied using index decomposition analysis. •Geographical shift in electricity production had a significant impact on global ACI. •Improvements in the thermal efficiency of generation were the main driver of reduction in ACI.

  5. Modeling Aircraft Emissions for Regional-scale Air Quality: Adapting a New Global Aircraft Emissions Database for the U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arunachalam, S.; Baek, B. H.; Vennam, P. L.; Woody, M. C.; Omary, M.; Binkowski, F.; Fleming, G.

    2012-12-01

    Commercial aircraft emit substantial amounts of pollutants during their complete activity cycle that ranges from landing-and-takeoff (LTO) at airports to cruising in upper elevations of the atmosphere, and affect both air quality and climate. Since these emissions are not uniformly emitted over the earth, and have substantial temporal and spatial variability, it is vital to accurately evaluate and quantify the relative impacts of aviation emissions on ambient air quality. Regional-scale air quality modeling applications do not routinely include these aircraft emissions from all cycles. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has developed the Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), a software system that dynamically models aircraft performance in space and time to calculate fuel burn and emissions from gate-to-gate for all commercial aviation activity from all airports globally. To process in-flight aircraft emissions and to provide a realistic representation of these for treatment in grid-based air quality models, we have developed an interface processor called AEDTproc that accurately distributes full-flight chorded emissions in time and space to create gridded, hourly model-ready emissions input data. Unlike the traditional emissions modeling approach of treating aviation emissions as ground-level sources or processing emissions only from the LTO cycles in regional-scale air quality studies, AEDTproc distributes chorded inventories of aircraft emissions during LTO cycles and cruise activities into a time-variant 3-D gridded structure. We will present results of processed 2006 global emissions from AEDT over a continental U.S. modeling domain to support a national-scale air quality assessment of the incremental impacts of aircraft emissions on surface air quality. This includes about 13.6 million flights within the U.S. out of 31.2 million flights globally. We will focus on assessing spatio-temporal variability of these commercial aircraft emissions, and

  6. Global emission inventory and atmospheric transport of black carbon. Evaluation of the associated exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Rong

    2015-06-01

    This thesis presents research focusing on the improvement of high-resolution global black carbon (BC) emission inventory and application in assessing the population exposure to ambient BC. A particular focus of the thesis is on the construction of a high-resolution (both spatial and sectorial) fuel consumption database, which is used to develop the emission inventory of black carbon. Above all, the author updates the global emission inventory of black carbon, a resource subsequently used to study the atmospheric transport of black carbon over Asia with the help of a high-resolution nested model. The thesis demonstrates that spatial bias in fuel consumption and BC emissions can be reduced by means of the sub-national disaggregation approach. Using the inventory and nested model, ambient BC concentrations can be better validated against observations. Lastly, it provides a complete uncertainty analysis of global black carbon emissions, and this uncertainty is taken into account in the atmospheric modeling, helping to better understand the role of black carbon in regional and global air pollution.

  7. Evaluation of reported NOx emission trends between 2005 and 2013 by assimilation of OMI-NO2 data into LOTOS-EUROS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaap, Martijn; Segers, Arjo; Curier, Lyana; Timmermans, Renske

    2016-04-01

    Consistent and long time series of remotely sensed trace gas levels may provide a useful tool to estimate surface emissions and emission trends. We use the OMI-NO2 product in conjunction with the LOTOS-EUROS CTM to estimate European emission trends through correction of the OMI-time series for meteorological variability as well as through assimilation using an ensemble kalman filter system (EnKF). The chemistry transport model captures a large fraction of the variability in NO2 columns at a synoptic timescale, although a seasonal signal in the bias between the modeled and retrieved column data remains. Prior to the assimilation, the OMI-NO2 data have been analyzed to establish the spatially variable temporal and spatial correlation lengths, required for the settings in the EnKF system. The assimilation run for 2005-2013 was performed using constant 2005 emissions to be able to quantify the emission change. The assimilation reduces the model-observation differences considerably. Significant negative trends of 2-3 % per year (as compared to 2005) were found in highly industrialized areas across Western Europe. The assimilation system also identifies the areas with major emission reductions in e.g. northern Spain as identified in earlier studies. Comparison of the trends derived from the assimilation and the data itself shows a high level of agreement, both the trends found in this way are smaller than those reported.

  8. Contribution of Anthropogenic and Natural Emissions to Global CH4 Balances by Utilizing δ13C-CH4 Observations in CarbonTracker Data Assimilation System (CTDAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kangasaho, V. E.; Tsuruta, A.; Aalto, T.; Backman, L. B.; Houweling, S.; Krol, M. C.; Peters, W.; van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T.; Lienert, S.; Joos, F.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Michael, S.; White, J. W. C.

    2017-12-01

    The atmospheric burden of CH4 has more than doubled since preindustrial time. Evaluating the contribution from anthropogenic and natural emissions to the global methane budget is of great importance to better understand the significance of different sources at the global scale, and their contribution to changes in growth rate of atmospheric CH4 before and after 2006. In addition, observations of δ13C-CH4 suggest an increase in natural sources after 2006, which matches the observed increase and variation of CH4 abudance. Methane emission sources can be identified using δ13C-CH4, because different sources produce methane with process-specific isotopic signatures. This study focuses on inversion model based estimates of global anthropogenic and natural methane emission rates to evaluate the existing methane emission estimates with a new δ13C-CH4 inversion system. In situ measurements of atmospheric methane and δ13C-CH4 isotopic signature, provided by the NOAA Global Monitoring Division and the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, will be assimilated into the CTDAS-13C-CH4. The system uses the TM5 atmospheric transport model as an observation operator, constrained by ECMWF ERA Interim meteorological fields, and off-line TM5 chemistry fields to account for the atmospheric methane sink. LPX-Bern DYPTOP ecosystem model is used for prior natural methane emissions from wetlands, peatlands and mineral soils, GFED v4 for prior fire emissions and EDGAR v4.2 FT2010 inventory for prior anthropogenic emissions. The EDGAR antropogenic emissions are re-divided into enteric fermentation and manure management, landfills and waste water, rice, coal, oil and gas, and residential emissions, and the trend of total emissions is scaled to match optimized anthropogenic emissions from CTE-CH4. In addition to these categories, emissions from termites and oceans are included. Process specific δ13C-CH4 isotopic signatures are assigned to each emission source to estimate 13CH4 fraction

  9. Evaluating Global Emission Inventories of Biogenic Bromocarbons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossaini, Ryan; Mantle, H.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Montzka, S. A.; Hamer, P.; Ziska, F.; Quack, B.; Kruger, K.; Tegtmeier, S.; Atlas, E.; hide

    2013-01-01

    Emissions of halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLS) are poorly constrained. However, their inclusion in global models is required to simulate a realistic inorganic bromine (Bry) loading in both the troposphere, where bromine chemistry perturbs global oxidizing capacity, and in the stratosphere, where it is a major sink for ozone (O3). We have performed simulations using a 3-D chemical transport model (CTM) including three top-down and a single bottom-up derived emission inventory of the major brominated VSLS bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2). We perform the first concerted evaluation of these inventories, comparing both the magnitude and spatial distribution of emissions. For a quantitative evaluation of each inventory, model output is compared with independent long-term observations at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ground-based stations and with aircraft observations made during the NSF (National Science Foundation) HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) project. For CHBr3, the mean absolute deviation between model and surface observation ranges from 0.22 (38 %) to 0.78 (115 %) parts per trillion (ppt) in the tropics, depending on emission inventory. For CH2Br2, the range is 0.17 (24 %) to 1.25 (167 %) ppt. We also use aircraft observations made during the 2011 Stratospheric Ozone: Halogen Impacts in a Varying Atmosphere (SHIVA) campaign, in the tropical western Pacific. Here, the performance of the various inventories also varies significantly, but overall the CTM is able to reproduce observed CHBr3 well in the free troposphere using an inventory based on observed sea-to-air fluxes. Finally, we identify the range of uncertainty associated with these VSLS emission inventories on stratospheric bromine loading due to VSLS (Br(VSLS/y)). Our simulations show Br(VSLS/y) ranges from approximately 4.0 to 8.0 ppt depending on the inventory. We report an optimized estimate at the lower end of this range (approximately 4 ppt

  10. Impacts of Global Manufacturing Trends on Port Development: The Case of Hong Kong1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abraham Zhang

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Global manufacturing trends may have profound implications for regional port development. This paper studies Hong Kong port (HKP, which has been one of the world's busiest container ports since the 1990s. In recent years, global manufacturers have started to move away from its primary cargo base, the Chinese Pearl River Delta. This study investigates impacts of the emerging global manufacturing trends on HKP development. It is found that relocation of manufacturing to Western Guangdong benefits HKP, while other relocation destinations make HKP less attractive or even irrelevant. Based on the findings, government policies are discussed that may be formulated to support the growth of the port and wider port-related economy.

  11. Global Emissions of Nitrous Oxide: Key Source Sectors, their Future Activities and Technical Opportunities for Emission Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winiwarter, W.; Höglund-Isaksson, L.; Klimont, Z.; Schöpp, W.; Amann, M.

    2017-12-01

    Nitrous oxide originates primarily from natural biogeochemical processes, but its atmospheric concentrations have been strongly affected by human activities. According to IPCC, it is the third largest contributor to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (after carbon dioxide and methane). Deep decarbonization scenarios, which are able to constrain global temperature increase within 1.5°C, require strategies to cut methane and nitrous oxide emissions on top of phasing out carbon dioxide emissions. Employing the Greenhouse gas and Air pollution INteractions and Synergies (GAINS) model, we have estimated global emissions of nitrous oxide until 2050. Using explicitly defined emission reduction technologies we demonstrate that, by 2030, about 26% ± 9% of the emissions can be avoided assuming full implementation of currently existing reduction technologies. Nearly a quarter of this mitigation can be achieved at marginal costs lower than 10 Euro/t CO2-eq with the chemical industry sector offering important reductions. Overall, the largest emitter of nitrous oxide, agriculture, also provides the largest emission abatement potentials. Emission reduction may be achieved by precision farming methods (variable rate technology) as well as by agrochemistry (nitrification inhibitors). Regionally, the largest emission reductions are achievable where intensive agriculture and industry are prevalent (production and application of mineral fertilizers): Centrally Planned Asia including China, North and Latin America, and South Asia including India. Further deep cuts in nitrous oxide emissions will require extending reduction efforts beyond strictly technological solutions, i.e., considering behavioral changes, including widespread adoption of "healthy diets" minimizing excess protein consumption.

  12. Transport and Environment Database System (TRENDS): Maritime Air Pollutant Emission Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Georgakaki, Aliki; Coffey, Robert; Lock, Grahm

    2005-01-01

    This paper reports the development of the maritime module within the framework of the Transport and Environment Database System (TRENDS) project. A detailed database has been constructed for the calculation of energy consumption and air pollutant emissions. Based on an in-house database...... changes from findings reported in Methodologies for Estimating air pollutant Emissions from Transport (MEET). The database operates on statistical data provided by Eurostat, which describe vessel and freight movements from and towards EU 15 major ports. Data are at port to Maritime Coastal Area (MCA...... with a view to this purpose, are mentioned. Examples of the results obtained by the database are presented. These include detailed air pollutant emission calculations for bulk carriers entering the port of Helsinki, as an example of the database operation, and aggregate results for different types...

  13. Towards continuous global measurements and optimal emission estimates of NF3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, T.; Muhle, J.; Salameh, P.; Harth, C.; Ivy, D. J.; Weiss, R. F.

    2011-12-01

    We present an analytical method for the continuous in situ measurement of nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) - an anthropogenic gas with a global warming potential of ~16800 over a 100 year time horizon. NF3 is not included in national reporting emissions inventories under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). However, it is a rapidly emerging greenhouse gas due to emission from a growing number of manufacturing facilities with increasing output and modern end-use applications, namely in microcircuit etching, and in production of flat panel displays and thin-film photovoltaic cells. Despite success in measuring the most volatile long lived halogenated species such as CF4, the Medusa preconcentration GC/MS system of Miller et al. (2008) is unable to detect NF3 under remote operation. Using altered techniques of gas separation and chromatography after initial preconcentration, we are now able to make continuous atmospheric measurements of NF3 with average precisions NF3 produced. Emission factors are shown to have reduced over the last decade; however, rising production and end-use have caused the average global atmospheric concentration to double between 2005 and 2011 i.e. half the atmospheric NF3 present today originates from emissions after 2005. Finally we show the first continuous in situ measurements from La Jolla, California, illustrating how global deployment of our technique could improve the temporal and spatial scale of NF3 'top-down' emission estimates over the coming years. These measurements will be important for independent verification of emissions should NF3 be regulated under a new climate treaty.

  14. HFC-23 (CHF3 emission trend response to HCFC-22 (CHClF2 production and recent HFC-23 emission abatement measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. G. Prinn

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available HFC-23 (also known as CHF3, fluoroform or trifluoromethane is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG, with a global warming potential (GWP of 14 800 for a 100-year time horizon. It is an unavoidable by-product of HCFC-22 (CHClF2, chlorodifluoromethane production. HCFC-22, an ozone depleting substance (ODS, is used extensively in commercial refrigeration and air conditioning, in the extruded polystyrene (XPS foam industries (dispersive applications and also as a feedstock in fluoropolymer manufacture (a non-dispersive use. Aside from small markets in specialty uses, HFC-23 has historically been considered a waste gas that was, and often still is, simply vented to the atmosphere. Efforts have been made in the past two decades to reduce HFC-23 emissions, including destruction (incineration in facilities in developing countries under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's (UNFCCC Clean Development Mechanism (CDM, and by process optimization and/or voluntary incineration by most producers in developed countries. We present observations of lower-tropospheric mole fractions of HFC-23 measured by "Medusa" GC/MSD instruments from ambient air sampled in situ at the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE network of five remote sites (2007–2009 and in Cape Grim air archive (CGAA samples (1978–2009 from Tasmania, Australia. These observations are used with the AGAGE 2-D atmospheric 12-box model and an inverse method to produce model mole fractions and a "top-down" HFC-23 emission history. The model 2009 annual mean global lower-tropospheric background abundance is 22.6 (±0.2 pmol mol−1. The derived HFC-23 emissions show a "plateau" during 1997–2003, followed by a rapid ~50% increase to a peak of 15.0 (+1.3/−1.2 Gg/yr in 2006. Following this peak, emissions of HFC-23 declined rapidly to 8.6 (+0.9/−1.0 Gg/yr in 2009, the lowest annual emission of the past 15 years. We derive a 1990–2008 "bottom-up" HFC-23 emission history

  15. Recent Trends in Global Ocean Chlorophyll

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Watson; Casey, Nancy

    2004-01-01

    Recent analyses of SeaWiFS data have shown that global ocean chlorophyll has increased more than 5% since 1998. The North Pacific ocean basin has increased nearly 19%. To understand the causes of these trends we have applied the newly developed NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Assimilation Model (OBAM), which is driven in mechanistic fashion by surface winds, sea surface temperature, atmospheric iron deposition, sea ice, and surface irradiance. The mode1 utilizes chlorophyll from SeaWiFS in a daily assimilation. The model has in place many of the climatic variables that can be expected to produce the changes observed in SeaWiFS data. Ths enables us to diagnose the model performance, the assimilation performance, and possible causes for the increase in chlorophyll.

  16. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving air quality: Two global challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Larry E

    2017-07-01

    There are many good reasons to promote sustainable development and reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other combustion emissions. The air quality in many urban environments is causing many premature deaths because of asthma, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and dementia associated with combustion emissions. The global social cost of air pollution is at least $3 trillion/year; particulates, nitrogen oxides and ozone associated with combustion emissions are very costly pollutants. Better air quality in urban environments is one of the reasons for countries to work together to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. There are many potential benefits associated with limiting climate change. In the recent past, the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been increasing and the number of weather and climate disasters with costs over $1 billion has been increasing. The average global temperature set new record highs in 2014, 2015, and 2016. To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the transition to electric vehicles and electricity generation using renewable energy must take place in accord with the goals of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. This work reviews progress and identifies some of the health benefits associated with reducing combustion emissions. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog, 36: 982-988, 2017.

  17. Evaluation of the Committed Carbon Emissions and Global Warming due to the Permafrost Carbon Feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elshorbany, Y. F.; Schaefer, K. M.; Jafarov, E. E.; Yumashev, D.; Hope, C.

    2017-12-01

    We quantify the increase in carbon emissions and temperature due to Permafrost Carbon feedback (PCF), defined as the amplification of anthropogenic warming due to carbon emissions from thawing permafrost (i.e., of near-surface layers to 3 m depth). We simulate the Committed PCF emissions, the cumulative total emissions from thawing permafrost by 2300 for a given global temperature increase by 2100, and investigate the resulting global warming using the Simple Biosphere/Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach SiBCASA model. We estimate the committed PCF emissions and warming for the Fifth Assessment Report, Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 using two ensembles of five projections. For the 2 °C warming target of the global climate change treaty, committed PCF emissions increase to 24 Gt C by 2100 and 76 Gt C by 2300 and the committed PCF warming is 0.23 °C by 2300. Our calculations show that as the global temperature increase by 2100 approaches 5.8 °C, the entire stock of frozen carbon thaws out, resulting in maximum committed PCF emissions of 560 Gt C by 2300.

  18. The IGAC activity for the development of global emissions inventories: Description and initial results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benkovitz, C.M.; Graedel, T.E.

    1992-02-01

    Modeling assessments of the atmospheric chemistry, air quality and climatic conditions of the past, present and future require as input inventories of emissions of the appropriate chemical species constructed on appropriate spatial and temporal scales. The task of the Global Emissions Inventories Activity (GEIA) of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Project (IGAC) is the production of global inventories suitable for a range of research applications. Current GEIA programs are generally based on addressing emissions by species; these include CO 2 , NH 3 /N 2 O, SO 2 /NO x , CFC, volatile organic compounds and radioisotopes. In addition a separate program to inventory emissions from biomass burning is also being structured, plus an additional program to address data management issues for all the developing inventories. Program priorities are based on current knowledge and tasks needed to produce the desired inventories. This paper will discuss the different types of global inventories to be developed by the GEIA programs, their key characteristics, and areas to be addressed in the compilation of such inventories. Results of the first GEIA task, a survey of existing inventories and auxiliary data, will be presented. The survey included status assessments for the available inventory information for nineteen different atmospheric species or groups of species on global and regional scales and over time. Of this entire body of information, the only inventory regarded as satisfactory was that for the global emissions of CFCs. An implication of the results of these assessments is that properly gridded emissions inventories are badly needed to support atmospheric modeling calculations on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Initial studies in the development of global inventories of sulfur dioxide, currently the most advanced GEIA program, will be presented and discussed

  19. Incidence and mortality of lung cancer: global trends and association with socioeconomic status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Martin C S; Lao, Xiang Qian; Ho, Kin-Fai; Goggins, William B; Tse, Shelly L A

    2017-10-30

    We examined the correlation between lung cancer incidence/mortality and country-specific socioeconomic development, and evaluated its most recent global trends. We retrieved its age-standardized incidence rates from the GLOBOCAN database, and temporal patterns were assessed from global databases. We employed simple linear regression analysis to evaluate their correlations with Human Development Index (HDI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. The average annual percent changes (AAPC) of the trends were evaluated from join-point regression analysis. Country-specific HDI was strongly correlated with age-standardized incidence (r = 0.70) and mortality (r = 0.67), and to a lesser extent GDP (r = 0.24 to 0.55). Among men, 22 and 30 (out of 38 and 36) countries showed declining incidence and mortality trends, respectively; whilst among women, 19 and 16 countries showed increasing incidence and mortality trends, respectively. Among men, the AAPCs ranged from -2.8 to -0.6 (incidence) and -3.6 to -1.1 (mortality) in countries with declining trend, whereas among women the AAPC range was 0.4 to 8.9 (incidence) and 1 to 4.4 (mortality) in countries with increasing trend. Among women, Brazil, Spain and Cyprus had the greatest incidence increase, and all countries in Western, Southern and Eastern Europe reported increasing mortality. These findings highlighted the need for targeted preventive measures.

  20. Global health benefits of mitigating ozone pollution with methane emission controls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, J Jason; Fiore, Arlene M; Horowitz, Larry W; Mauzerall, Denise L

    2006-03-14

    Methane (CH(4)) contributes to the growing global background concentration of tropospheric ozone (O(3)), an air pollutant associated with premature mortality. Methane and ozone are also important greenhouse gases. Reducing methane emissions therefore decreases surface ozone everywhere while slowing climate warming, but although methane mitigation has been considered to address climate change, it has not for air quality. Here we show that global decreases in surface ozone concentrations, due to methane mitigation, result in substantial and widespread decreases in premature human mortality. Reducing global anthropogenic methane emissions by 20% beginning in 2010 would decrease the average daily maximum 8-h surface ozone by approximately 1 part per billion by volume globally. By using epidemiologic ozone-mortality relationships, this ozone reduction is estimated to prevent approximately 30,000 premature all-cause mortalities globally in 2030, and approximately 370,000 between 2010 and 2030. If only cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities are considered, approximately 17,000 global mortalities can be avoided in 2030. The marginal cost-effectiveness of this 20% methane reduction is estimated to be approximately 420,000 US dollars per avoided mortality. If avoided mortalities are valued at 1 US dollars million each, the benefit is approximately 240 US dollars per tone of CH(4) ( approximately 12 US dollars per tone of CO(2) equivalent), which exceeds the marginal cost of the methane reduction. These estimated air pollution ancillary benefits of climate-motivated methane emission reductions are comparable with those estimated previously for CO(2). Methane mitigation offers a unique opportunity to improve air quality globally and can be a cost-effective component of international ozone management, bringing multiple benefits for air quality, public health, agriculture, climate, and energy.

  1. Comparison of global 3-D aviation emissions datasets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. C. Olsen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Aviation emissions are unique from other transportation emissions, e.g., from road transportation and shipping, in that they occur at higher altitudes as well as at the surface. Aviation emissions of carbon dioxide, soot, and water vapor have direct radiative impacts on the Earth's climate system while emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx, sulfur oxides, carbon monoxide (CO, and hydrocarbons (HC impact air quality and climate through their effects on ozone, methane, and clouds. The most accurate estimates of the impact of aviation on air quality and climate utilize three-dimensional chemistry-climate models and gridded four dimensional (space and time aviation emissions datasets. We compare five available aviation emissions datasets currently and historically used to evaluate the impact of aviation on climate and air quality: NASA-Boeing 1992, NASA-Boeing 1999, QUANTIFY 2000, Aero2k 2002, and AEDT 2006 and aviation fuel usage estimates from the International Energy Agency. Roughly 90% of all aviation emissions are in the Northern Hemisphere and nearly 60% of all fuelburn and NOx emissions occur at cruise altitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. While these datasets were created by independent methods and are thus not strictly suitable for analyzing trends they suggest that commercial aviation fuelburn and NOx emissions increased over the last two decades while HC emissions likely decreased and CO emissions did not change significantly. The bottom-up estimates compared here are consistently lower than International Energy Agency fuelburn statistics although the gap is significantly smaller in the more recent datasets. Overall the emissions distributions are quite similar for fuelburn and NOx with regional peaks over the populated land masses of North America, Europe, and East Asia. For CO and HC there are relatively larger differences. There are however some distinct differences in the altitude distribution

  2. Timing of carbon emissions from global forest clearance

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Mason Earles; Sonia Yeh; Kenneth E. Skog

    2012-01-01

    Land-use change, primarily from conventional agricultural expansion and deforestation, contributes to approximately 17% of global greenhouse-gas emissions1. The fate of cleared wood and subsequent carbon storage as wood products, however, has not been consistently estimated, and is largely ignored or oversimplified by most models estimating...

  3. Global climate impacts of country-level primary carbonaceous aerosol from solid-fuel cookstove emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lacey, Forrest; Henze, Daven

    2015-01-01

    Cookstove use is globally one of the largest unregulated anthropogenic sources of primary carbonaceous aerosol. While reducing cookstove emissions through national-scale mitigation efforts has clear benefits for improving indoor and ambient air quality, and significant climate benefits from reduced green-house gas emissions, climate impacts associated with reductions to co-emitted black (BC) and organic carbonaceous aerosol are not well characterized. Here we attribute direct, indirect, semi-direct, and snow/ice albedo radiative forcing (RF) and associated global surface temperature changes to national-scale carbonaceous aerosol cookstove emissions. These results are made possible through the use of adjoint sensitivity modeling to relate direct RF and BC deposition to emissions. Semi- and indirect effects are included via global scaling factors, and bounds on these estimates are drawn from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. Absolute regional temperature potentials are used to estimate global surface temperature changes. Bounds are placed on these estimates, drawing from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. We estimate a range of 0.16 K warming to 0.28 K cooling with a central estimate of 0.06 K cooling from the removal of cookstove aerosol emissions. At the national emissions scale, countries’ impacts on global climate range from net warming (e.g., Mexico and Brazil) to net cooling, although the range of estimated impacts for all countries span zero given uncertainties in RF estimates and fuel characterization. We identify similarities and differences in the sets of countries with the highest emissions and largest cookstove temperature impacts (China, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal), those with the largest temperature impact per carbon emitted (Kazakhstan, Estonia, and Mongolia), and those that would provide the

  4. Global climate impacts of country-level primary carbonaceous aerosol from solid-fuel cookstove emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacey, Forrest; Henze, Daven

    2015-11-01

    Cookstove use is globally one of the largest unregulated anthropogenic sources of primary carbonaceous aerosol. While reducing cookstove emissions through national-scale mitigation efforts has clear benefits for improving indoor and ambient air quality, and significant climate benefits from reduced green-house gas emissions, climate impacts associated with reductions to co-emitted black (BC) and organic carbonaceous aerosol are not well characterized. Here we attribute direct, indirect, semi-direct, and snow/ice albedo radiative forcing (RF) and associated global surface temperature changes to national-scale carbonaceous aerosol cookstove emissions. These results are made possible through the use of adjoint sensitivity modeling to relate direct RF and BC deposition to emissions. Semi- and indirect effects are included via global scaling factors, and bounds on these estimates are drawn from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. Absolute regional temperature potentials are used to estimate global surface temperature changes. Bounds are placed on these estimates, drawing from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. We estimate a range of 0.16 K warming to 0.28 K cooling with a central estimate of 0.06 K cooling from the removal of cookstove aerosol emissions. At the national emissions scale, countries’ impacts on global climate range from net warming (e.g., Mexico and Brazil) to net cooling, although the range of estimated impacts for all countries span zero given uncertainties in RF estimates and fuel characterization. We identify similarities and differences in the sets of countries with the highest emissions and largest cookstove temperature impacts (China, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal), those with the largest temperature impact per carbon emitted (Kazakhstan, Estonia, and Mongolia), and those that would provide the

  5. Global Trends in Seasonality of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, 1982–2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Assaf Anyamba

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available A 30-year series of global monthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI imagery derived from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS NDVI3g archive was analyzed for the presence of trends in changing seasonality. Using the Seasonal Trend Analysis (STA procedure, over half (56.30% of land surfaces were found to exhibit significant trends. Almost half (46.10% of the significant trends belonged to three classes of seasonal trends (or changes. Class 1 consisted of areas that experienced a uniform increase in NDVI throughout the year, and was primarily associated with forested areas, particularly broadleaf forests. Class 2 consisted of areas experiencing an increase in the amplitude of the annual seasonal signal whereby increases in NDVI in the green season were balanced by decreases in the brown season. These areas were found primarily in grassland and shrubland regions. Class 3 was found primarily in the Taiga and Tundra biomes and exhibited increases in the annual summer peak in NDVI. While no single attribution of cause could be determined for each of these classes, it was evident that they are primarily found in natural areas (as opposed to anthropogenic land cover conversions and that they are consistent with climate-related ameliorations of growing conditions during the study period.

  6. Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rogelj, Joeri; Schaeffer, M.; Meinshausen, M.; Knutti, R.

    2015-01-01

    Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO2). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO2 emissions at some point. Policymakers have now incorporated this

  7. Global combustion: the connection between fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions (1997-2010).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balch, Jennifer K; Nagy, R Chelsea; Archibald, Sally; Bowman, David M J S; Moritz, Max A; Roos, Christopher I; Scott, Andrew C; Williamson, Grant J

    2016-06-05

    Humans use combustion for heating and cooking, managing lands, and, more recently, for fuelling the industrial economy. As a shift to fossil-fuel-based energy occurs, we expect that anthropogenic biomass burning in open landscapes will decline as it becomes less fundamental to energy acquisition and livelihoods. Using global data on both fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions, we tested this relationship over a 14 year period (1997-2010). The global average annual carbon emissions from biomass burning during this time were 2.2 Pg C per year (±0.3 s.d.), approximately one-third of fossil fuel emissions over the same period (7.3 Pg C, ±0.8 s.d.). There was a significant inverse relationship between average annual fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions. Fossil fuel emissions explained 8% of the variation in biomass burning emissions at a global scale, but this varied substantially by land cover. For example, fossil fuel burning explained 31% of the variation in biomass burning in woody savannas, but was a non-significant predictor for evergreen needleleaf forests. In the land covers most dominated by human use, croplands and urban areas, fossil fuel emissions were more than 30- and 500-fold greater than biomass burning emissions. This relationship suggests that combustion practices may be shifting from open landscape burning to contained combustion for industrial purposes, and highlights the need to take into account how humans appropriate combustion in global modelling of contemporary fire. Industrialized combustion is not only an important driver of atmospheric change, but also an important driver of landscape change through companion declines in human-started fires.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  8. The digital divide: Trends in global mobile and broadband Internet access from 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronquillo, Charlene; Currie, Leanne

    2012-01-01

    The digital divide is described as the gap between those who do and do not have access to digital information and communications technologies (ICT). ICTs are viewed as an indicator of infrastructure and potential for development, and are a growing platform for health information and services delivery. This study compares the penetration of mobile and broadband Internet technologies by global region from 2000 to 2010. Results illustrate the rapid growth of mobile cellular telephone subscriptions in all global regions with trends suggesting a continued increase. Little to modest gains were made in fixed broadband Internet subscriptions globally. There is a growing popularity of mobile subscriptions with use of data communications, exceeding the numbers of fixed Internet subscriptions. This comparison reveals current strengths that can be built on and highlights the importance of awareness of global trends and using such knowledge to inform design and delivery of ICT-based health services.

  9. When will we reach 1.5 of global warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, D.

    2017-12-01

    Recent global temperature trends indicate that we may be rapidly approaching 1.5 degrees of global warming. However, rigorous estimates of when this target will be breached are rare, and are highly sensitive to small errors in observed and model-simulated historical warming, as well as widely-varying estimates of the allowable emissions for 1.5°C. Here, I present a proposed method to estimate the time remaining to 1.5°C using a new estimate of human-attributable warming, updated CO2 emissions trends, and the latest estimates of the 1.5°C carbon budget. The resulting calculation suggests that a continuation of recent CO2 emission trends would take us past 1.5°C in 2033, a little less than 16 years from now. Uncertainties in this calculation remain large, reflecting both fundamental scientific uncertainties associated with the climate response to emissions, as well as uncertainties associated with human mitigation decisions and their effect on future CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions. However, it is nevertheless important to provide a robust and widely-accepted best estimate of the time remaining before we breach the climate targets that have been adopted in the Paris climate agreement, so as to clearly communicate our scientific understanding to policy makers and the general public. To this end, in an effort to visualize and track our progress towards these target, we have develop an online and projectable climate clock, which shows a real-time countdown of the time remaining to 1.5 and 2°C of global warming (see www.climateclock.net). This clock will be updated annually in light of the most recent emissions and global temperature data, and accounting for improved estimates of the remaining carbon budget associated with these climate targets. As countries around the world move forward with climate mitigation efforts, this climate clock will be able to clearly mark our progress towards the objective of adding time to the countdown so as to ultimately

  10. Pattern changes in determinants of Chinese emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mi, Zhifu; Meng, Jing; Guan, Dabo; Shan, Yuli; Liu, Zhu; Wang, Yutao; Feng, Kuishuang; Wei, Yi-Ming

    2017-07-01

    The Chinese economy has been recovering slowly from the global financial crisis, but it cannot achieve the same rapid development of the pre-recession period. Instead, the country has entered a new phase of economic development—a ‘new normal’. We use a structural decomposition analysis and environmental input-output analysis to estimate the determinants of China’s carbon emission changes during 2005-2012. China’s imports are linked to a global multi-regional input-output model based on the Global Trade and Analysis Project database to calculate the embodied CO2 emissions in imports. We find that the global financial crisis has affected the drivers of China’s carbon emission growth. From 2007 to 2010, the CO2 emissions induced by China’s exports dropped, whereas emissions induced by capital formation grew rapidly. In the ‘new normal’, the strongest factors that offset CO2 emissions have shifted from efficiency gains to structural upgrading. Efficiency was the strongest factor offsetting China’s CO2 emissions before 2010 but drove a 1.4% increase in emissions in the period 2010-2012. By contrast, production structure and consumption patterns caused a 2.6% and 1.3% decrease, respectively, in China’s carbon emissions from 2010 to 2012. In addition, China tends to shift gradually from an investment to a consumption-driven economy. The proportion of CO2 emissions induced by consumption had a declining trend before 2010 but grew from 28.6%-29.1% during 2010-2012.

  11. Control of mercury emissions: policies, technologies, and future trends

    OpenAIRE

    Rhee, Seung-Whee

    2015-01-01

    Seung-Whee Rhee Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyonggi University, Suwon, Republic of Korea Abstract: Owing to the Minamata Convention on Mercury and the Global Mercury Partnership, policies and regulations on mercury management in advanced countries were intensified by a mercury phaseout program in the mercury control strategy. In developing countries, the legislative or regulatory frameworks on mercury emissions are not established specifically, but mercury management is designed...

  12. Global terrestrial isoprene emission models: sensitivity to variability in climate and vegetation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Arneth

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Due to its effects on the atmospheric lifetime of methane, the burdens of tropospheric ozone and growth of secondary organic aerosol, isoprene is central among the biogenic compounds that need to be taken into account for assessment of anthropogenic air pollution-climate change interactions. Lack of process-understanding regarding leaf isoprene production as well as of suitable observations to constrain and evaluate regional or global simulation results add large uncertainties to past, present and future emissions estimates. Focusing on contemporary climate conditions, we compare three global isoprene models that differ in their representation of vegetation and isoprene emission algorithm. We specifically aim to investigate the between- and within model variation that is introduced by varying some of the models' main features, and to determine which spatial and/or temporal features are robust between models and different experimental set-ups. In their individual standard configurations, the models broadly agree with respect to the chief isoprene sources and emission seasonality, with maximum monthly emission rates around 20–25 Tg C, when averaged by 30-degree latitudinal bands. They also indicate relatively small (approximately 5 to 10 % around the mean interannual variability of total global emissions. The models are sensitive to changes in one or more of their main model components and drivers (e.g., underlying vegetation fields, climate input which can yield increases or decreases in total annual emissions of cumulatively by more than 30 %. Varying drivers also strongly alters the seasonal emission pattern. The variable response needs to be interpreted in view of the vegetation emission capacities, as well as diverging absolute and regional distribution of light, radiation and temperature, but the direction of the simulated emission changes was not as uniform as anticipated. Our results highlight the need for modellers to evaluate their

  13. Global radioxenon emission inventory based on nuclear power reactor reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalinowski, Martin B; Tuma, Matthias P

    2009-01-01

    Atmospheric radioactivity is monitored for the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, with xenon isotopes 131mXe, 133Xe, 133mXe and 135Xe serving as important indicators of nuclear explosions. The treaty-relevant interpretation of atmospheric concentrations of radioxenon is enhanced by quantifying radioxenon emissions released from civilian facilities. This paper presents the first global radioxenon emission inventory for nuclear power plants, based on North American and European emission reports for the years 1995-2005. Estimations were made for all power plant sites for which emission data were unavailable. According to this inventory, a total of 1.3PBq of radioxenon isotopes are released by nuclear power plants as continuous or pulsed emissions in a generic year.

  14. Global carbon stocks and potential emissions due to mangrove deforestation from 2000 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Stuart E.; Friess, Daniel A.

    2018-03-01

    Mangrove forests store high densities of organic carbon, which, when coupled with high rates of deforestation, means that mangroves have the potential to contribute substantially to carbon emissions. Consequently, mangroves are strong candidates for inclusion in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and payments for ecosystem services (PES) programmes that financially incentivize the conservation of forested carbon stocks. This study quantifies annual mangrove carbon stocks from 2000 to 2012 at the global, national and sub-national levels, and global carbon emissions resulting from deforestation over the same time period. Globally, mangroves stored 4.19 Pg of carbon in 2012, with Indonesia, Brazil, Malaysia and Papua New Guinea accounting for more than 50% of the global stock. 2.96 Pg of the global carbon stock is contained within the soil and 1.23 Pg in the living biomass. Two percent of global mangrove carbon was lost between 2000 and 2012, equivalent to a maximum potential of 316,996,250 t of CO2 emissions.

  15. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

    2013-04-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie

  16. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. B. B. Booth

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high

  17. Impacts of global, regional, and sectoral black carbon emission reductions on surface air quality and human mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anenberg, S. C.; Talgo, K.; Arunachalam, S.; Dolwick, P.; Jang, C.; West, J. J.

    2011-07-01

    As a component of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), black carbon (BC) is associated with premature human mortality. BC also affects climate by absorbing solar radiation and reducing planetary albedo. Several studies have examined the climate impacts of BC emissions, but the associated health impacts have been studied less extensively. Here, we examine the surface PM2.5 and premature mortality impacts of halving anthropogenic BC emissions globally and individually from eight world regions and three major economic sectors. We use a global chemical transport model, MOZART-4, to simulate PM2.5 concentrations and a health impact function to calculate premature cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths. We estimate that halving global anthropogenic BC emissions reduces outdoor population-weighted average PM2.5 by 542 ng m-3 (1.8 %) and avoids 157 000 (95 % confidence interval, 120 000-194 000) annual premature deaths globally, with the vast majority occurring within the source region. Most of these avoided deaths can be achieved by halving emissions in East Asia (China; 54 %), followed by South Asia (India; 31 %), however South Asian emissions have 50 % greater mortality impacts per unit BC emitted than East Asian emissions. Globally, halving residential, industrial, and transportation emissions contributes 47 %, 35 %, and 15 % to the avoided deaths from halving all anthropogenic BC emissions. These contributions are 1.2, 1.2, and 0.6 times each sector's portion of global BC emissions, owing to the degree of co-location with population globally. We find that reducing BC emissions increases regional SO4 concentrations by up to 28 % of the magnitude of the regional BC concentration reductions, due to reduced absorption of radiation that drives photochemistry. Impacts of residential BC emissions are likely underestimated since indoor PM2.5 exposure is excluded. We estimate ∼8 times more avoided deaths when BC and organic carbon (OC) emissions are halved together, suggesting

  18. From climate change to emissions trading : a briefing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marcu, A.

    2002-01-01

    Global warming is caused by the presence of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the earth's atmosphere. These gases include, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxides, sulphur dioxide and methane. GHGs trap heat between the earth's atmosphere and the earth's surface to cause an overall warming trend of the Earth. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was established to address the issue of climate change and to determine the anthropogenic impact on climate change. Evidence from ice cores suggest that global warming has occurred in the past. The current state of global warming was examined by comparing the climate of today with that of the past. It was determined that the current global warming trend surpasses that of any ever observed in the past. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997 as a policy set to address the need for the world to reduce GHG emissions into the atmosphere. The Kyoto Protocol puts forth 3 sets of mechanisms to help businesses reduce GHG emissions. Emissions trading is one of them: it is a financial flexibility mechanism that allows businesses that have emitted more than their allowed share of GHGs to buy allowances from business that have emitted fewer GHGs than they were allowed. Emissions trading does not create reductions, however, it identifies the most economical solution to reduce GHGs. TransAlta, Ontario Power Generation and Suncor have conducted a few transactions to see how the market will work. There will be a global register to keep track of all assigned allowances. The paper described government action in addressing the climate change issue with reference to actions in the United Kingdom, Netherlands, Denmark and Switzerland. Canada has initiated the Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Trading Pilot (GERT) to test the effectiveness of emission reduction trading for GHGs in the Canadian context. GERT is a partnership between the federal government, some provinces, industry, labour and environmental groups. Ontario has established a

  19. Global atmospheric response to emissions from a proposed reusable space launch system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Erik J. L.; Portmann, Robert W.; Rosenlof, Karen H.; Fahey, David W.; Daniel, John S.; Ross, Martin N.

    2017-01-01

    Modern reusable launch vehicle technology may allow high flight rate space transportation at low cost. Emissions associated with a hydrogen fueled reusable rocket system are modeled based on the launch requirements of developing a space-based solar power system that generates present-day global electric energy demand. Flight rates from 104 to 106 per year are simulated and sustained to a quasisteady state. For the assumed rocket engine, H2O and NOX are the primary emission products; this also includes NOX produced during reentry heating. For a base case of 105 flights per year, global stratospheric and mesospheric water vapor increase by approximately 10 and 100%, respectively. As a result, high-latitude cloudiness increases in the lower stratosphere and near the mesopause by as much as 20%. Increased water vapor also results in global effective radiative forcing of about 0.03 W/m2. NOX produced during reentry exceeds meteoritic production by more than an order of magnitude, and along with in situ stratospheric emissions, results in a 0.5% loss of the globally averaged ozone column, with column losses in the polar regions exceeding 2%.

  20. Estimating the marginal cost of reducing global fossil fuel CO2 emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edmonds, J.; Barns, D.W.; McDonald, S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper estimates the marginal, total, and average cost and effectiveness of carbon taxes applied either by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) members alone, or as part of a global cooperative strategy, to reduce potential future emissions and their direct implications for employment in the US coal industry. Two sets of cases are examined, one set in which OECD members acts alone, and another set in which the world acts in concert. In each case set taxes are examined which achieve four alternative levels of emissions reduction: halve the rate of emissions growth, no emissions growth, 20% reduction from 1988 levels, and 50% reduction from 1988 levels. For the global cooperation case, carbon tax rates of $32, $113, $161, and $517 per metric ton of carbon (mtC) were needed in the year 2025 to achieve the objectives. Total costs were respectively $40, $178, $253, and $848 billions of 1990 US dollars per year in the year 2025. Average costs were $32, $55, $59, and $135 per mtC. Costs were significantly higher in the cases in which the OECD members states acted alone. OECD member states, acting alone, could not reduce global emissions by 50% or 20% relative to 1988, given reference case assumptions regarding developing and recently planned nations economic growth

  1. Comparison of global inventories of CO_2 emissions from biomass burning during 2002–2011 derived from multiple satellite products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi, Yusheng; Matsunaga, Tsuneo; Saito, Makoto; Yamaguchi, Yasushi; Chen, Xuehong

    2015-01-01

    This study compared five widely used globally gridded biomass burning emissions inventories for the 2002–2011 period (Global Fire Emissions Database 3 (GFED3), Global Fire Emissions Database 4 (GFED4), Global Fire Assimilation System 1.0 (GFAS1.0), Fire INventory from NCAR 1.0 (FINN1.0) and Global Inventory for Chemistry-Climate studies-GFED4 (G-G)). Average annual CO_2 emissions range from 6521.3 to 9661.5 Tg year"−"1 for five inventories, with extensive amounts in Africa, South America and Southeast Asia. Coefficient of Variation for Southern America, Northern and Southern Africa are 30%, 39% and 48%. Globally, the majority of CO_2 emissions are released from savanna burnings, followed by forest and cropland burnings. The largest differences among the five inventories are mainly attributable to the overestimation of CO_2 emissions by FINN1.0 in Southeast Asia savanna and cropland burning, and underestimation in Southern Africa savanna and Amazon forest burning. The overestimation in Africa by G-G also contributes to the differences. - Highlights: • Five widely used global biomass burning emissions inventories were compared. • Global CO_2 emissions compared well while regional differences are large. • The largest differences were found in Southeast Asia and Southern Africa. • Savanna burning emission was the largest contributor to the global emissions. • Variations in savanna burning emission led to the differences among inventories. - Differences of the five biomass burning CO_2 emissions inventories were found in Southeast Asia and Southern Africa due to the variations in savanna burning emissions estimation.

  2. Global Trend Analysis of Multi-decade Soil Temperature Records Show Soils Resistant to Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, S. D.; Jennings, K.

    2017-12-01

    Soil temperature is an important determinant of many subterranean ecological processes including plant growth, nutrient cycling, and carbon sequestration. Soils are expected to warm in response to increasing global surface temperatures; however, despite the importance of soil temperature to ecosystem processes, less attention has been given to examining changes in soil temperature over time. We collected long-term (> 20 years) soil temperature records from approximately 50 sites globally, many with multiple depths (5 - 100 cm), and examined temperature trends over the last few decades. For each site and depth we calculated annual summer means and conducted non-parametric Mann Kendall trend and Sen slope analysis to assess changes in summer soil temperature over the length of each time series. The mean summer soil temperature trend across all sites and depths was not significantly different than zero (mean = 0.004 °C year-1 ± 0.033 SD), suggesting that soils have not warmed over the observation period. Of the subset of sites that exhibit significant increases in temperature over time, site location, depth of measurement, time series length, and neither start nor end date seem to be related to trend strength. These results provide evidence that the thermal regime of soils may have a stronger buffering capacity than expected, having important implications for the global carbon cycle and feedbacks to climate change.

  3. Pathways of human development and carbon emissions embodied in trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinberger, Julia K.; Timmons Roberts, J.; Peters, Glen P.; Baiocchi, Giovanni

    2012-02-01

    It has long been assumed that human development depends on economic growth, that national economic expansion in turn requires greater energy use and, therefore, increased greenhouse-gas emissions. These interdependences are the topic of current research. Scarcely explored, however, is the impact of international trade: although some nations develop socio-economically and import high-embodied-carbon products, it is likely that carbon-exporting countries gain significantly fewer benefits. Here, we use new consumption-based measures of national carbon emissions to explore how the relationship between human development and carbon changes when we adjust national emission rates for trade. Without such adjustment of emissions, some nations seem to be getting far better development `bang' for the carbon `buck' than others, who are showing scant gains for disproportionate shares of global emissions. Adjusting for the transfer of emissions through trade explains many of these outliers, but shows that further socio-economic benefits are accruing to carbon-importing rather than carbon-exporting countries. We also find that high life expectancies are compatible with low carbon emissions but high incomes are not. Finally, we see that, despite strong international trends, there is no deterministic industrial development trajectory: there is great diversity in pathways, and national histories do not necessarily follow the global trends.

  4. Global Fire Emissions Indicators, Country-Level Tabular Data: 1997-2015

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Fire Emissions Indicators, Country-Level Tabular Data: 1997-2015 contains country tabulations from 1997 to 2015 for the total area burned (hectares) and...

  5. Global variability of cloud condensation nuclei concentrations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makkonen, Risto; Krüger, Olaf

    2017-04-01

    Atmospheric aerosols can influence cloud optical and dynamical processes by acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Globally, these indirect aerosol effects are significant to the radiative budget as well as a source of high uncertainty in anthropogenic radiative forcing. While historically many global climate models have fixed CCN concentrations to a certain level, most state-of-the-art models calculate aerosol-cloud interactions with sophisticated methodologies based on interactively simulated aerosol size distributions. However, due to scarcity of atmospheric observations simulated global CCN concentrations remain poorly constrained. Here we assess global CCN variability with a climate model, and attribute potential trends during 2000-2010 to changes in emissions and meteorological fields. Here we have used ECHAM5.5-HAM2 with model M7 microphysical aerosol model. The model has been upgraded with a secondary organic aerosol (SOA) scheme including ELVOCs. Dust and sea salt emissions are calculated online, based on wind speed and hydrology. Each experiment is 11 years, analysed after a 6-month spin-up period. The MODIS CCN product (Terra platform) is used to evaluate model performance throughout 2000-2010. While optical remote observation of CCN column includes several deficiencies, the products serves as a proxy for changes during the simulation period. In our analysis we utilize the observed and simulated vertical column integrated CCN concentration, and limit our analysis only over marine regions. Simulated annual CCN column densities reach 2ṡ108 cm-2 near strong source regions in central Africa, Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and China sea. The spatial concentration gradient in CCN(0.2%) is steep, and column densities drop to coasts. While the spatial distribution of CCN at 0.2% supersaturation is closer to that of MODIS proxy, as opposed to 1.0% supersaturation, the overall column integrated CCN are too low. Still, we can compare the relative response of CCN

  6. The Status Quo and Developing Trend Analysis of Global Carbon Finance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Qian; Wang Yao

    2011-01-01

    This paper gives a systematic view of the new trends of global carbon finance innovation under the challenge of global climate change and in the process of transition to achieve economic growth from "high carbon" to 'low carbon', covering the following aspects: the structure, status quo and developing trend of global carbon market. The paper discusses the innovation in financial organization and service systems and governments' overall guidance and policy support, and draws the conclusion that the world is undergoing massive changes with governments actively responding to carbon finance to embrace the tremendous opportunities for clean energy and climate change in financial industry. To seize the opportunity, a complete and overall carbon finance system of China should be put in the top of the agenda. Given the current tasks of energy conservation and pollution reduction and the growing demand for capital input, China needs to construct an clear of policy guidance, a diversified financia service system, and a multi-approach carbon finance system to intensify and widen the participation of financial industry, to expand financing channels for sustainable economy and spread risks, and finally, work out an inexpensive solution to the realization of China's low carbon target.

  7. Diesel engine performance and emissions with fuels derived from waste tyres.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, Puneet; Zare, Ali; Jafari, Mohammad; Bodisco, Timothy A; Rainey, Thomas; Ristovski, Zoran D; Brown, Richard J

    2018-02-06

    The disposal of waste rubber and scrap tyres is a significant issue globally; disposal into stockpiles and landfill poses a serious threat to the environment, in addition to creating ecological problems. Fuel production from tyre waste could form part of the solution to this global issue. Therefore, this paper studies the potential of fuels derived from waste tyres as alternatives to diesel. Production methods and the influence of reactor operating parameters (such as reactor temperature and catalyst type) on oil yield are outlined. These have a major effect on the performance and emission characteristics of diesel engines when using tyre derived fuels. In general, tyre derived fuels increase the brake specific fuel consumption and decrease the brake thermal efficiency. The majority of studies indicate that NOx emissions increase with waste tyre derived fuels; however, a few studies have reported the opposite trend. A similar increasing trend has been observed for CO and CO 2 emissions. Although most studies reported an increase in HC emission owing to lower cetane number and higher density, some studies have reported reduced HC emissions. It has been found that the higher aromatic content in such fuels can lead to increased particulate matter emissions.

  8. Digitalization and the global technology trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ignat, V.

    2017-08-01

    Digitalization, connected products and services, and shortening innovation cycles are widely discussed topics in management practice and theory and demand for new concepts. We analysed how companies innovated their business models and how are the new the technology trends. We found out, that have a positive approach to digitalization but the technology strategy still runs its original business model. Digitalization forces to new solution orientation. For companies it is necessary to master the digital transformation, new innovations have to be developed. Furthermore, digitalization / Industry 4.0 linking the real-life factory with virtual reality, will play an increasingly important role in global manufacturing. Companies have to obtain new digital capabilities, in order to make their company sustainable for the future. A long term growth and welfare in Europe could be guaranteed only by new technology innovation.

  9. Structural Uncertainty in Model-Simulated Trends of Global Gross Primary Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaichun Zhu

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Projected changes in the frequency and severity of droughts as a result of increase in greenhouse gases have a significant impact on the role of vegetation in regulating the global carbon cycle. Drought effect on vegetation Gross Primary Production (GPP is usually modeled as a function of Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD and/or soil moisture. Climate projections suggest a strong likelihood of increasing trend in VPD, while regional changes in precipitation are less certain. This difference in projections between VPD and precipitation can cause considerable discrepancies in the predictions of vegetation behavior depending on how ecosystem models represent the drought effect. In this study, we scrutinized the model responses to drought using the 30-year record of Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS 3g Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI dataset. A diagnostic ecosystem model, Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS, was used to estimate global GPP from 1982 to 2009 under nine different experimental simulations. The control run of global GPP increased until 2000, but stayed constant after 2000. Among the simulations with single climate constraint (temperature, VPD, rainfall and solar radiation, only the VPD-driven simulation showed a decrease in 2000s, while the other scenarios simulated an increase in GPP. The diverging responses in 2000s can be attributed to the difference in the representation of the impact of water stress on vegetation in models, i.e., using VPD and/or precipitation. Spatial map of trend in simulated GPP using GIMMS 3g data is consistent with the GPP driven by soil moisture than the GPP driven by VPD, confirming the need for a soil moisture constraint in modeling global GPP.

  10. Potential for reducing global carbon emissions from electricity production-A benchmarking analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ang, B.W.; Zhou, P.; Tay, L.P.

    2011-01-01

    We present five performance indicators for electricity generation for 129 countries using the 2005 data. These indicators, measured at the national level, are the aggregate CO 2 intensity of electricity production, the efficiencies of coal, oil and gas generation and the share of electricity produced from non-fossil fuels. We conduct a study on the potential for reducing global energy-related CO 2 emissions from electricity production through simple benchmarking. This is performed based on the last four performance indicators and the construction of a cumulative curve for each of these indicators. It is found that global CO 2 emissions from electricity production would be reduced by 19% if all these indicators are benchmarked at the 50th percentile. Not surprisingly, the emission reduction potential measured in absolute terms is the highest for large countries such as China, India, Russia and the United States. When the potential is expressed as a percentage of a country's own emissions, few of these countries appear in the top-five list. - Research highlights: → We study variations in emissions per kWh of electricity generated among countries. → We analyze emissions from electricity production through benchmarking. → Estimates of reduction in emissions are made based on different assumptions.

  11. Inter-annual trend of the primary contribution of ship emissions to PM2.5 concentrations in Venice (Italy): Efficiency of emissions mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contini, Daniele; Gambaro, Andrea; Donateo, Antonio; Cescon, Paolo; Cesari, Daniela; Merico, Eva; Belosi, Franco; Citron, Marta

    2015-02-01

    Ships and harbour emissions are currently increasing, due to the increase of tourism and trade, with potential impact on global air pollution and climate. At local scale, in-port ship emissions influence air quality in coastal areas impacting on health of coastal communities. International legislations to reduce ship emissions, both at Worldwide and European levels, are mainly based on the use of low-sulphur content fuel. In this work an analysis of the inter-annual trends of primary contribution, ε, of tourist shipping to the atmospheric PM2.5 concentrations in the urban area of Venice has been performed. Measurements have been taken in the summer periods of 2007, 2009 and 2012. Results show a decrease of ε from 7% (±1%) in 2007 to 5% (±1%) in 2009 and to 3.5% (±1%) in 2012. The meteorological and micrometeorological conditions of the campaigns were similar. Tourist ship traffic during measurement campaigns increased, in terms of gross tonnage, of about 25.4% from 2007 to 2009 and of 17.6% from 2009 to 2012. The decrease of ε was associated to the effect of a voluntary agreement (Venice Blue Flag) for the use of low-sulphur content fuel enforced in the area between 2007 and 2009 and to the implementation of the 2005/33/CE Directive in 2010. Results show that the use of low-sulphur fuel could effectively reduce the impact of shipping to atmospheric primary particles at local scale. Further, voluntary agreement could also be effective in reducing the impact of shipping on local air quality in coastal areas.

  12. Global distribution of N2O emissions from aquatic systems : natural emissions and anthropogenic effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seitzinger, S.P.; Styles, R.V.; Kroeze, C.

    2000-01-01

    Context Abstract: Atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide, a greenhouse gas, are increasing due to human activities. Our analysis suggests that a third of global anthropogenic N2O emission is from aquatic sources (rivers, estuaries, continental shelves) and the terrestrial sources comprise the

  13. Impacts of global, regional, and sectoral black carbon emission reductions on surface air quality and human mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. C. Anenberg

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available As a component of fine particulate matter (PM2.5, black carbon (BC is associated with premature human mortality. BC also affects climate by absorbing solar radiation and reducing planetary albedo. Several studies have examined the climate impacts of BC emissions, but the associated health impacts have been studied less extensively. Here, we examine the surface PM2.5 and premature mortality impacts of halving anthropogenic BC emissions globally and individually from eight world regions and three major economic sectors. We use a global chemical transport model, MOZART-4, to simulate PM2.5 concentrations and a health impact function to calculate premature cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths. We estimate that halving global anthropogenic BC emissions reduces outdoor population-weighted average PM2.5 by 542 ng m−3 (1.8 % and avoids 157 000 (95 % confidence interval, 120 000–194 000 annual premature deaths globally, with the vast majority occurring within the source region. Most of these avoided deaths can be achieved by halving emissions in East Asia (China; 54 %, followed by South Asia (India; 31 %, however South Asian emissions have 50 % greater mortality impacts per unit BC emitted than East Asian emissions. Globally, halving residential, industrial, and transportation emissions contributes 47 %, 35 %, and 15 % to the avoided deaths from halving all anthropogenic BC emissions. These contributions are 1.2, 1.2, and 0.6 times each sector's portion of global BC emissions, owing to the degree of co-location with population globally. We find that reducing BC emissions increases regional SO4 concentrations by up to 28 % of the magnitude of the regional BC concentration reductions, due to reduced absorption of radiation that drives photochemistry. Impacts of residential BC emissions are likely underestimated since indoor PM2.5 exposure is excluded. We estimate ∼8 times

  14. Embodiment Analysis for Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Chinese Economy Based on Global Thermodynamic Potentials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lijie Wang

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the Global Thermodynamic Potential (GTP indicator to perform a unified assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, and to systematically reveal the emission embodiment in the production, consumption, and international trade of the Chinese economy in 2007 as the most recent year available with input-output table and updated inventory data. The results show that the estimated total direct GHG emissions by the Chinese economy in 2007 amount to 10,657.5 Mt CO2-eq by the GTPs with 40.6% from CH4 emissions in magnitude of the same importance as CO2 emissions. The five sectors of Electric Power/Steam and Hot Water Production and Supply, Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous and Nonferrous Metals, Nonmetal Mineral Products, Agriculture, and Coal Mining and Dressing, are responsible for 83.3% of the total GHG emissions with different emission structures. The demands of coal and coal-electricity determine the structure of emission embodiment to an essential extent. The Construction sector holds the top GHG emissions embodied in both domestic production and domestic consumption. The GHG emission embodied in gross capital formation is more than those in other components of final demand characterized by extensive investment and limited household consumption. China is a net exporter of embodied GHG emissions, with a remarkable share of direct emission induced by international trade, such as textile products, industrial raw materials, and primary machinery and equipment products exports. The fractions of CH4 in the component of embodied GHG emissions in the final demand are much greater than those fractions calculated by the Global Warming Potentials, which highlight the importance of CH4 emissions for the case of China and indicate the essential effect of CH4 emissions on global climate change. To understand the full context to achieve GHG emission mitigation, this study provides a new insight to address China’s GHG emissions status and

  15. Global spatially explicit CO2 emission metrics at 0.25° horizontal resolution for forest bioenergy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherubini, F.

    2015-12-01

    Bioenergy is the most important renewable energy option in studies designed to align with future RCP projections, reaching approximately 250 EJ/yr in RCP2.6, 145 EJ/yr in RCP4.5 and 180 EJ/yr in RCP8.5 by the end of the 21st century. However, many questions enveloping the direct carbon cycle and climate response to bioenergy remain partially unexplored. Bioenergy systems are largely assessed under the default climate neutrality assumption and the time lag between CO2 emissions from biomass combustion and CO2 uptake by vegetation is usually ignored. Emission metrics of CO2 from forest bioenergy are only available on a case-specific basis and their quantification requires processing of a wide spectrum of modelled or observed local climate and forest conditions. On the other hand, emission metrics are widely used to aggregate climate impacts of greenhouse gases to common units such as CO2-equivalents (CO2-eq.), but a spatially explicit analysis of emission metrics with global forest coverage is today lacking. Examples of emission metrics include the global warming potential (GWP), the global temperature change potential (GTP) and the absolute sustained emission temperature (aSET). Here, we couple a global forest model, a heterotrophic respiration model, and a global climate model to produce global spatially explicit emission metrics for CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy. We show their applications to global emissions in 2015 and until 2100 under the different RCP scenarios. We obtain global average values of 0.49 ± 0.03 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2-1 (mean ± standard deviation), 0.05 ± 0.05 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2-1, and 2.14·10-14 ± 0.11·10-14 °C (kg yr-1)-1, and 2.14·10-14 ± 0.11·10-14 °C (kg yr-1)-1 for GWP, GTP and aSET, respectively. We also present results aggregated at a grid, national and continental level. The metrics are found to correlate with the site-specific turnover times and local climate variables like annual mean temperature and precipitation. Simplified

  16. Southward shift of the global wind energy resource under high carbon dioxide emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Lundquist, Julie K.; Zhang, Lei

    2018-01-01

    The use of wind energy resource is an integral part of many nations' strategies towards realizing the carbon emissions reduction targets set forth in the Paris Agreement, and global installed wind power cumulative capacity has grown on average by 22% per year since 2006. However, assessments of wind energy resource are usually based on today's climate, rather than taking into account that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions continue to modify the global atmospheric circulation. Here, we apply an industry wind turbine power curve to simulations of high and low future emissions scenarios in an ensemble of ten fully coupled global climate models to investigate large-scale changes in wind power across the globe. Our calculations reveal decreases in wind power across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and increases across the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, with substantial regional variations. The changes across the northern mid-latitudes are robust responses over time in both emissions scenarios, whereas the Southern Hemisphere changes appear critically sensitive to each individual emissions scenario. In addition, we find that established features of climate change can explain these patterns: polar amplification is implicated in the northern mid-latitude decrease in wind power, and enhanced land-sea thermal gradients account for the tropical and southern subtropical increases.

  17. Greenhouse gas emission reduction scenarios for BC : meeting the twin objectives of temperature stabilization and global equity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, C.R.

    2008-08-01

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction strategies are needed in order to prevent rises in global temperatures. This report presented 6 GHG emission scenarios conducted to understand the kind of contribution that the province of British Columbia (BC) might make towards reducing global warming in the future. Short, medium, and longer term GHG reduction targets were benchmarked. The University of Victoria earth system climate model was used to calculate emission pathways where global average temperature did not exceed 2 degrees C above pre-industrial values, and where atmospheric GHGs were stabilized at 400 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e). Global carbon emission budgets of the total amount of GHG emissions permissible between now and 2100 were identified. A carbon emission budget for 2008 to 2100 was then developed based on the population of BC. Average annual emission reduction rates for the world and for BC were also identified. It was concluded that dramatically reduced emissions will be insufficient to achieve an equilibrium temperature less than 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Global reductions of greater than 80 per cent are needed to prevent unacceptable levels of ocean acidification. Results suggested that carbon sequestration technologies may need to be used to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere by artificial means. 38 refs., 5 tabs., 4 figs

  18. Aerosol impacts on regional trends in atmospheric stagnation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascioli, N. R.; Fiore, A. M.; Previdi, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme pollution events pose a significant threat to human health and are a leading cause of premature mortality worldwide. While emissions of atmospheric pollutants and their precursors are projected to decrease in the future due to air quality legislation, future climate change may affect the underlying meteorological conditions that contribute to extreme pollution events. Stagnation events, characterized by weak winds and an absence of precipitation, contribute to extreme pollution by halting the removal of pollutants via advection and wet deposition. Here, we use a global climate model (GFDL-CM3) to show that regional stagnation trends over the historical period (1860-2005) are driven by changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions, rather than rising greenhouse gases. In the northeastern and central United States, aerosol-induced changes in surface and upper level winds have produced significant decreases in the number of stagnant summer days, while decreasing precipitation in the southeast US has increased the number of stagnant summer days. Significant drying over eastern China in response to aerosol forcing contributed to increased stagnation. Additionally, this region was found to be particularly sensitive to changes in local emissions, indicating that improving air quality will also lessen stagnation. In Europe, we find a dipole pattern wherein stagnation decreases over southern Europe and increases over northern Europe in response to global increases in aerosol emissions. We hypothesize that this is due to changes in the large-scale circulation patterns associated with a poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track. We find that in the future, the combination of declining aerosol emissions and the continued rise of greenhouse gas emissions will lead to a reversal of the historical stagnation trends.

  19. Combating global warming. Possible rules, regulations and administrative arrangements for a global market in CO2 emission entitlements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-12-01

    When in 1991 the UNCTAD secretariat launched its research into the idea of controlling carbon dioxide emissions through a system of 'tradeable permits', there was little support for this approach. Some felt that the idea was premature and should not detract from efforts to introduce more conventional measures, such as environmental taxes and new regulations. However, in a few short years, the idea of using tradeable market-based instruments to combat global warming has gained widespread acceptance. The UNCTAD secretariat's 1992 study on a global system of tradeable carbon emission entitlements (UNCTAD/RDP/DFP/1), was widely regarded as a major breakthrough in this area. This study argued that tradeable permits were both an efficient means of controlling man-made carbon dioxide emissions at minimum cost, and an effective mechanism for transferring resources to developing countries and countries in transition, to help them to contribute to the international effort to abate emissions of greenhouse gases. The study contained a detailed assessment of key technical elements of a tradeable CO 2 entitlements system, including permit allocation techniques, resource transfers, equity/distributional implications, institutional and administrative requirements. The present publication explores the institutional requirements for both policy-making and the organization of a global market in CO 2 emission allowances. It shows that one can start with a simple pilot scheme based on the joint implementation of commitments, which constitutes the cornerstone of the Framework Convention, and evolve gradually to a more complete system on the basis of 'learning by doing'. Since the use of markets can dramatically lower the cost of controlling greenhouse gas emissions, it is clearly in the self-interest of major emitters to act as 'market leaders' willing to pioneer

  20. Current trends in the global tourism industry: evidence from the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nejdet Delener

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Tourism is one of the largest U.S. industries, serving millions of international and domestic tourists yearly. Tourists visit the U.S. to see natural wonders, cities, historic landmarks, and entertainment venues. Americans seek similar attractions as well as recreation and vacation areas. Tourism competes in the global market, so it is important to understand current trends in the U.S. travel industry. Therefore, this article offers insight into important trends and suggests strategies for policy makers involved in the travel and tourism industry.

  1. Global combustion: the connection between fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions (1997–2010)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balch, Jennifer K.; Nagy, R. Chelsea; Archibald, Sally; Moritz, Max A.; Williamson, Grant J.

    2016-01-01

    Humans use combustion for heating and cooking, managing lands, and, more recently, for fuelling the industrial economy. As a shift to fossil-fuel-based energy occurs, we expect that anthropogenic biomass burning in open landscapes will decline as it becomes less fundamental to energy acquisition and livelihoods. Using global data on both fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions, we tested this relationship over a 14 year period (1997–2010). The global average annual carbon emissions from biomass burning during this time were 2.2 Pg C per year (±0.3 s.d.), approximately one-third of fossil fuel emissions over the same period (7.3 Pg C, ±0.8 s.d.). There was a significant inverse relationship between average annual fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions. Fossil fuel emissions explained 8% of the variation in biomass burning emissions at a global scale, but this varied substantially by land cover. For example, fossil fuel burning explained 31% of the variation in biomass burning in woody savannas, but was a non-significant predictor for evergreen needleleaf forests. In the land covers most dominated by human use, croplands and urban areas, fossil fuel emissions were more than 30- and 500-fold greater than biomass burning emissions. This relationship suggests that combustion practices may be shifting from open landscape burning to contained combustion for industrial purposes, and highlights the need to take into account how humans appropriate combustion in global modelling of contemporary fire. Industrialized combustion is not only an important driver of atmospheric change, but also an important driver of landscape change through companion declines in human-started fires. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’. PMID:27216509

  2. Analysis of monotonic greening and browning trends from global NDVI time-series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, de R.; Bruin, de S.; Wit, de A.J.W.; Schaepman, M.E.; Dent, D.L.

    2011-01-01

    Remotely sensed vegetation indices are widely used to detect greening and browning trends; especially the global coverage of time-series normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data which are available from 1981. Seasonality and serial auto-correlation in the data have previously been dealt

  3. Global population trends and policy options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezeh, Alex C; Bongaarts, John; Mberu, Blessing

    2012-07-14

    Rapid population growth is a threat to wellbeing in the poorest countries, whereas very low fertility increasingly threatens the future welfare of many developed countries. The mapping of global trends in population growth from 2005-10 shows four distinct patterns. Most of the poorest countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, are characterised by rapid growth of more than 2% per year. Moderate annual growth of 1-2% is concentrated in large countries, such as India and Indonesia, and across north Africa and western Latin America. Whereas most advanced-economy countries and large middle-income countries, such as China and Brazil, are characterised by low or no growth (0-1% per year), most of eastern Europe, Japan, and a few western European countries are characterised by population decline. Countries with rapid growth face adverse social, economic, and environmental pressures, whereas those with low or negative growth face rapid population ageing, unsustainable burdens on public pensions and health-care systems, and slow economic growth. Countries with rapid growth should consider the implementation of voluntary family planning programmes as their main policy option to reduce the high unmet need for contraception, unwanted pregnancies, and probirth reproductive norms. In countries with low or negative growth, policies to address ageing and very low fertility are still evolving. Further research into the potential effect of demographic policies on other social systems, social groups, and fertility decisions and trends is therefore recommended. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Evaluating the Long-term Water Cycle Trends at a Global-scale using Satellite and Assimilation Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, H.; Lakshmi, V.

    2017-12-01

    Global-scale soil moisture and rainfall products retrieved from remotely sensed and assimilation datasets provide an effective way to monitor near surface soil moisture content and precipitation with sub-daily temporal resolution. In the present study, we employed the concept of the stored precipitation fraction Fp(f) in order to examine the long-term water cycle trends at a global-scale. The analysis was done for Fp(f) trends with the various geophysical aspects such as climate zone, land use classifications, amount of vegetation, and soil properties. Furthermore, we compared a global-scale Fp(f) using different microwave-based satellite soil moisture datasets. The Fp(f) is calculated by utilized surface soil moisture dataset from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity, Advanced Scatterometer, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2, and precipitation information from Global Precipitation Measurement Mission and Global Land Data Assimilation System. Different results from microwave-based soil moisture dataset showed discordant results particularly over arid and highly vegetated regions. The results of this study provide us new insights of the long-term water cycle trends over different land surface areas. Thereby also highlighting the advantages of the recently available GPM and SMAP datasets for the uses in various hydrometeorological applications.

  5. Global energy and technology trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, Hans-Holger

    2008-01-01

    from the world's nuclear power reactors has continued to climb steadily, although the amount of new nuclear capacity coming on line each year has dropped substanially since its peak in 1980s. Looking ahead to nuclear power's prospects in the new century, four features stand out: (1) new nuclear power plants are not being built fast enough to maintain nuclear power's 16% share of global electricity generation; (2) current expansion, as well as near-term and long term growth prospects, are centered in Asia; (3) but 2002 also saw some signs of revitalized growth in Western Europe and North america, where growth has stagnated because of economics, market liberalization, and excess capacity; (4) long-term projections for nuclear power, particularly in the event of international agreement to significantly limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, are more bullish than near term trends. The key determining factor will be economics. In considering how to meet the world's growing need for enegy, it is important to recognize that each country is unique in itself and that every country uses a mix of energy supplies because: (1) different technologies are needed to meet diferent needs, e.g. for baseload power in contrast to peak power, or for meeting concentrated demand in megacities in contrast to that required by small users in remote areas; (2) evolution of the energy supply is uneven, and new technologies replace older ones in fits and starts and with overlaps; (3) different investors choose different technologies based on different requirements and perceptions about profitability and risk; (4) fast growing countries like China may need to expand all energy sources simultaneously just to keep up with growing demand. Moreover, the right mix for each country depends partly on how fast a country's energy demand is growing; on the country's energy resources and alternatives; on the available financing options and whether the investment is in a deregulated market that values rapid

  6. Global Sulfur Emissions in the 1990s

    OpenAIRE

    David I. Stern

    2003-01-01

    This paper provides global and individual country estimates of sulfur emissions from 1991-2000. Raw estimates are obtained in two ways. For countries and years with published data I compile that data from the available sources. For the remaining countries and for missing years for countries with some published data, I use either the decomposition model estimated by Stern (2002), the first differences environmental Kuznets curve model estimated by Stern and Common (2001), or a simple extrapola...

  7. Rapid Decline in Carbon Monoxide Emissions and Export from East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, B.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Yin, Y.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, Q.; He, K.

    2017-12-01

    MOPITT satellite- and ground-based measurements both suggest of a widespread downward trend in CO concentrations over East Asia during the period 2005-2016. This negative trend is inconsistent with bottom-up inventories of CO emissions, which show a small increase or stable emissions in this region, except for the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC). We try to reconcile the observed CO trend with emission inventories using an inversion of the MOPITT CO data that provides emissions from primary sources, secondary CO production, and chemical sinks of CO. We find that the decreasing trend of -0.41% yr-1 for CO column concentrations over East Asia is mainly due to a -2.51% yr-1 decrease in emissions from primary sources over this region, or a cumulative decline of -32% from 2005 to 2016. This emission decrease is enough to counterbalance the effect of rising concentrations of CH4 in East Asia, that increase the secondary CO formation at a rate of 1.56% yr-1, according to our multispecies inversion. The reducing emissions are mainly contributed by China. The MEIC inventory is the only one to be consistent with the inversion-diagnosed regional decrease of CO emissions. According to this inventory, decreased CO emissions from four main sectors (iron and steel industries, residential sources, gasoline vehicles, and construction materials industries) in China explain 76% of the inversion-based trend of emissions from East Asia. This result suggests that global inventories underestimated the recent decrease of CO emission factors in China which occurred despite the increasing consumption of carbon-based fuels, and is driven by fast technological changes and emission control measures.

  8. Greenhouse gas emissions from Swiss agriculture since 1990: implications for environmental policies to mitigate global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leifeld, Jens [AGROSCOPE, Swiss Federal Research Station for Agroecology and Agriculture, Air Pollution/Climate Group, Reckenholzstrasse 191, 8046 Zurich (Switzerland)]. E-mail: jens.leifeld@fal.admin.ch; Fuhrer, Juerg [AGROSCOPE, Swiss Federal Research Station for Agroecology and Agriculture, Air Pollution/Climate Group, Reckenholzstrasse 191, 8046 Zurich (Switzerland)

    2005-08-01

    Agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contribute significantly to global warming, and environmental protection strategies have thus to integrate emission reduction measures from this source. In Switzerland, legislation together with monetary incentives has forced primarily integrated, and to a lesser extend organic farming, both covering nowadays more than 95% of the agriculturally useful area. Though reducing greenhouse gas emissions was not a primary intention of this reorganisation, the measures were successful in reducing the overall emissions of nitrous oxide and methane by 10% relative to 1990. A reduction of the animal herd, namely of dairy cattle, non-dairy cattle and swine, and decreasing inputs of mineral N are the main contributors to the achieved emission reduction. Crop productivity was not negatively affected and milk productivity even increased, referring to the ecological potential of agricultural reorganisation that has been tapped. Total meat production declined proportional to the animal herd. Stabilised animal numbers and fertiliser use during the last 4 years refer to an exhaustion of future reduction potentials without further legislative action because this stabilisation is most likely due to the adaptation to the production guidelines. A comparison of emission trends and carbon sequestration potentials in the broader context of the EU15 reveals that nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O) and methane (CH{sub 4}) have been reduced more efficiently most probably due to the measures taken, but that sequestration potentials are smaller than in the EU15 mainly because of differences in the agricultural structure. The change from an intensified towards a more environmental sound integrated production has a significant reduction potential, but in any case, agriculture will remain a net GHG source in spite of emission mitigation and carbon sequestration.

  9. Explosive growth in African combustion emissions from 2005 to 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liousse, C; Rosset, R; Assamoi, E; Criqui, P; Granier, C

    2014-01-01

    Emissions of gases and particles from the combustion of fossil fuels and biofuels in Africa are expected to increase significantly in the near future due to the rapid growth of African cities and megacities. There is currently no regional emissions inventory that provides estimates of anthropogenic combustion for the African continent. This work provides a quantification of the evolution of African combustion emissions from 2005 to 2030, using a bottom-up method. This inventory predicts very large increases in black carbon, organic carbon, CO, NO x , SO 2 and non-methane hydrocarbon emissions if no emission regulations are implemented. This paper discusses the effectiveness of scenarios involving certain fuels, specific to Africa in each activity sector and each region (western, eastern, northern and southern Africa), to reduce the emissions. The estimated trends in African emissions are consistent with emissions provided by global inventories, but they display a larger range of values. African combustion emissions contributed significantly to global emissions in 2005. This contribution will increase more significantly by 2030: organic carbon emissions will for example make up 50% of the global emissions in 2030. Furthermore, we show that the magnitude of African anthropogenic emissions could be similar to African biomass burning emissions around 2030. (paper)

  10. Contrasting regional versus global radiative forcing by megacity pollution emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, H.; Unger, N.

    2015-10-01

    We assess the regional and global integrated radiative forcing on 20- and 100-year time horizons caused by a one-year pulse of present day pollution emissions from 10 megacity areas: Los Angeles, Mexico City, New York City, Sao Paulo, Lagos, Cairo, New Delhi, Beijing, Shanghai and Manila. The assessment includes well-mixed greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4); and short-lived climate forcers: tropospheric ozone (O3) and fine mode aerosol particles (sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, primary and secondary organic aerosol). All megacities contribute net global warming on both time horizons. Most of the 10 megacity areas exert a net negative effect on their own regional radiation budget that is 10-100 times larger in magnitude than their global radiative effects. Of the cities examined, Beijing, New Delhi, Shanghai and New York contribute most to global warming with values ranging from +0.03 to 0.05 Wm-2yr on short timescales and +0.07-0.10 Wm-2yr on long timescales. Regional net 20-year radiative effects are largest for Mexico City (-0.84 Wm-2yr) and Beijing (-0.78 Wm-2yr). Megacity reduction of non-CH4 O3 precursors to improve air quality offers zero co-benefits to global climate. Megacity reduction of aerosols to improve air quality offers co-benefits to the regional radiative budget but minimal or no co-benefits to global climate with the exception of black carbon reductions in a few cities, especially Beijing and New Delhi. Results suggest that air pollution and global climate change mitigation can be treated as separate environmental issues in policy at the megacity level with the exception of CH4 action. Individual megacity reduction of CO2 and CH4 emissions can mitigate global warming and therefore offers climate safety improvements to the entire planet.

  11. The Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN: a high resolution global model to estimate the emissions from open burning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Wiedinmyer

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The Fire INventory from NCAR version 1.0 (FINNv1 provides daily, 1 km resolution, global estimates of the trace gas and particle emissions from open burning of biomass, which includes wildfire, agricultural fires, and prescribed burning and does not include biofuel use and trash burning. Emission factors used in the calculations have been updated with recent data, particularly for the non-methane organic compounds (NMOC. The resulting global annual NMOC emission estimates are as much as a factor of 5 greater than some prior estimates. Chemical speciation profiles, necessary to allocate the total NMOC emission estimates to lumped species for use by chemical transport models, are provided for three widely used chemical mechanisms: SAPRC99, GEOS-CHEM, and MOZART-4. Using these profiles, FINNv1 also provides global estimates of key organic compounds, including formaldehyde and methanol. Uncertainties in the emissions estimates arise from several of the method steps. The use of fire hot spots, assumed area burned, land cover maps, biomass consumption estimates, and emission factors all introduce error into the model estimates. The uncertainty in the FINNv1 emission estimates are about a factor of two; but, the global estimates agree reasonably well with other global inventories of biomass burning emissions for CO, CO2, and other species with less variable emission factors. FINNv1 emission estimates have been developed specifically for modeling atmospheric chemistry and air quality in a consistent framework at scales from local to global. The product is unique because of the high temporal and spatial resolution, global coverage, and the number of species estimated. FINNv1 can be used for both hindcast and forecast or near-real time model applications and the results are being critically evaluated with models and observations whenever possible.

  12. Update and improvement of the global krypton-85 emission inventory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlswede, Jochen; Hebel, Simon; Ross, J. Ole; Schoetter, Robert; Kalinowski, Martin B.

    2013-01-01

    Krypton-85 is mainly produced in nuclear reactors by fission of uranium and plutonium and released during chopping and dissolution of spent fuel rods in nuclear reprocessing facilities. As noble gas it is suited as a passive tracer for evaluation of atmospheric transport models. Furthermore, research is ongoing to assess its quality as an indicator for clandestine reprocessing activities. This paper continues previous efforts to compile a comprehensive historic emission inventory for krypton-85. Reprocessing facilities are the by far largest emitters of krypton-85. Information on sources and calculations used to derive the annual krypton-85 emission is provided for all known reprocessing facilities in the world. In addition, the emission characteristics of two plants, Tokai (Japan) and La Hague (France), are analysed in detail using emission data with high temporal resolution. Other types of krypton-85 sources are power reactors, naval reactors and isotope production facilities. These sources contribute only little or negligible amounts of krypton-85 compared to the large reprocessing facilities. Taking the decay of krypton-85 into account, the global atmospheric inventory is estimated to about 5500 PBq at the end of 2009. The correctness if the inventory has been proven by meteorological simulations and its error is assumed to be in the range of a few percent. - Highlights: ► Krypton-85 is mainly produced in nuclear reactors and released during reprocessing. ► Krypten-85 can be possibly used as an indicator for clandestine reprocessing. ► This work provides an up-to-date global krypton-85 emission inventory. ► The inventory includes emissions from all possible artificial sources.

  13. An indicator framework for assessing US state carbon emissions reduction efforts (with baseline trends from 1990 to 2001)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiusto, Scott

    2008-01-01

    States are at the forefront of climate-related energy policy in the US, developing innovative policy and regional institutions for reducing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. States matter because the larger ones use more energy and produce more carbon emissions than most nations and because their policies, though heterogeneous and until recently quite limited in scope, are shaping the context for national climate action. Despite this significance, little is known about trends in state carbon emissions or the effectiveness of state policies in reducing emissions. This paper describes a framework for analyzing and comparing state carbon emissions performance using sectoral indicators of emissions, energy consumption and carbon intensity linked to key policy domains. The paper also describes the range of state experience across indicators during the period 1990-2001, establishing a baseline of leading, lagging and average experience against which future state and regional change can be assessed. The conceptual framework and the empirical analysis of emission trends are intended to provide a better understanding of, and means for monitoring, state contributions toward achieving energy system sustainability

  14. Development of a forecast model for global air traffic emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, Martin

    2012-07-01

    The thesis describes the methodology and results of a simulation model that quantifies fuel consumption and emissions of civil air traffic. Besides covering historical emissions, the model aims at forecasting emissions in the medium-term future. For this purpose, simulation models of aircraft and engine types are used in combination with a database of global flight movements and assumptions about traffic growth, fleet rollover and operational aspects. Results from an application of the model include emissions of scheduled air traffic for the years 2000 to 2010 as well as forecasted emissions until the year 2030. In a baseline scenario of the forecast, input assumptions (e.g. traffic growth rates) are in line with predictions by the aircraft industry. Considering the effects of advanced technologies of the short-term and medium-term future, the forecast focusses on fuel consumption and emissions of nitric oxides. Calculations for historical air traffic additionally cover emissions of carbon monoxide, unburned hydrocarbons and soot. Results are validated against reference data including studies by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and simulation results from international research projects. (orig.)

  15. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

    2012-09-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

  16. Temporal trends and spatial variation characteristics of primary air pollutants emissions from coal-fired industrial boilers in Beijing, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xue, Yifeng; Tian, Hezhong; Yan, Jing; Zhou, Zhen; Wang, Junling; Nie, Lei; Pan, Tao; Zhou, Junrui; Hua, Shenbing; Wang, Yong; Wu, Xiaoqing

    2016-01-01

    Coal-fired combustion is recognized as a significant anthropogenic source of atmospheric compounds in Beijing, causing heavy air pollution events and associated deterioration in visibility. Obtaining an accurate understanding of the temporal trends and spatial variation characteristics of emissions from coal-fired industrial combustion is essential for predicting air quality changes and evaluating the effectiveness of current control measures. In this study, an integrated emission inventory of primary air pollutants emitted from coal-fired industrial boilers in Beijing is developed for the period of 2007–2013 using a technology-based approach. Future emission trends are projected through 2030 based on current energy-related and emission control policies. Our analysis shows that there is a general downward trend in primary air pollutants emissions because of the implementation of stricter local emission standards and the promotion by the Beijing municipal government of converting from coal-fired industrial boilers to gas-fired boilers. However, the ratio of coal consumed by industrial boilers to total coal consumption has been increasing, raising concerns about the further improvement of air quality in Beijing. Our estimates indicate that the total emissions of PM 10 , PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO x , CO and VOCs from coal-fired industrial boilers in Beijing in 2013 are approximately 19,242 t, 13,345 t, 26,615 t, 22,965 t, 63,779 t and 1406 t, respectively. Under the current environmental policies and relevant energy savings and emission control plans, it may be possible to reduce NO x and other air pollutant emissions by 94% and 90% by 2030, respectively, if advanced flue gas purification technologies are implemented and coal is replaced with natural gas in the majority of existing boilers. - Highlights: • A unit-based emission inventory of coal-fired industrial boilers is developed. • Temporal trend of historical period 2007–2013 and the future till 2030 is

  17. AMSR-E/Aqua Monthly Global Microwave Land Surface Emissivity, Version 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set is a global land emissivity product using passive microwave observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System...

  18. Greenhouse Gases Emission and Global Warming Potential as Affected by Chemical Inputs for Main Cultivated Crops in Kerman Province: - Horticultural Crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nasibe Pourghasemian

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction The latest report of the IPCC states that future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs will continue to increase and will be the main cause of global climatic changes, as well as Iran. The three greenhouse gases associated with agriculture are CO2, CH4, and N2O. Chemical inputs consumption in agriculture has increased annually, while more intensive use of energy led to some important human health and environmental problems such as greenhouse gas emissions and global warming. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the application of chemical inputs in agricultural systems. Agriculture contributes significantly to atmospheric GHG emissions, with 14% of the global net CO2 emissions coming from this sector. Chemical inputs have a major role in this hazards. There is even less data on CO2, N2O, and CH4 gas emission analysis as affected by cultivating various crops in Kerman province. Therefore, this study was conducted to assess the GHGs emission and Global warming Potential GWP caused by chemical inputs (various chemical fertilizers and pesticides for cultivating potato, onion and watermelon in some regions of Kerman province at 2011-2012 growth season. Material and Methods The study was conducted in Kerman province of Iran. Data of planting area, application rates of the chemical inputs and other different parameter were collected from potato, onion and watermelon growers by using a face to face questionnaire in 2014 for different regions of Kerman(Bardsir, Bam, Jiroft, Kerman, Ravar, Rafsanjan and Sirjan. In addition to the data obtained by surveys, previous studies of related organization (Agricultural Ministry of Kerman were also utilized during the study. Farm random sampling was done within whole population and the sample size was determined by proper equations. The amounts of GHG emissions from chemical inputs in the studied crops were calculated by using CO2, N2O and CH4 emissions coefficient of chemical inputs. Then the amount of

  19. The digital divide: Trends in global mobile and broadband Internet access from 2000–2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronquillo, Charlene; Currie, Leanne

    2012-01-01

    The digital divide is described as the gap between those who do and do not have access to digital information and communications technologies (ICT). ICTs are viewed as an indicator of infrastructure and potential for development, and are a growing platform for health information and services delivery. This study compares the penetration of mobile and broadband Internet technologies by global region from 2000 to 2010. Results illustrate the rapid growth of mobile cellular telephone subscriptions in all global regions with trends suggesting a continued increase. Little to modest gains were made in fixed broadband Internet subscriptions globally. There is a growing popularity of mobile subscriptions with use of data communications, exceeding the numbers of fixed Internet subscriptions. This comparison reveals current strengths that can be built on and highlights the importance of awareness of global trends and using such knowledge to inform design and delivery of ICT-based health services. PMID:24199118

  20. Dancing with Global Trends: Higher Education Policy and University Governance in Hong Kong, 1997-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, William Yat Wai; Tang, Hei-Hang Hayes

    2017-01-01

    This article examines the significance of global trends in higher education (HE) development in Hong Kong between 1997 and 2012. Two trends, massification and internationalisation, are considered key driving forces that shaped Hong Kong's HE policy during the period. The former refers to government measures to widen participation in HE. The latter…

  1. Depiction of global trends in publications on mobile health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahla Foozonkhah

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Variety of mobile health initiatives in different levels have been undertaken across many countries. Trends of these initiatives can be reflected in the research published in m-health domain. Aim: This paper aims to depict global trends in the published works on m-health topic. Materials and Methods: The Web of Science database was used to identify all relevant published papers on mobile health domain worldwide. The search was conducted on documents published from January 1898 to December 2014. The criteria for searching were set to be “mHealth” or “Mobile health” or “m health” or “m_health” or “m-health” in topics. Results: Findings revealed an increasing trend of citations and publications on m-health research since 2012. English was the first most predominant language of the publication. The US had the highest number of publication with 649 papers; however, the Netherlands ranked first after considering publication number in terms of countries population. “Studies in Health Technology and Informatics” was the source title with highest number of publications on mobile health topics. Conclusion: Trend of research observed in this study indicates the continuing growth is happening in mobile health domain. This may imply that the new model of health-care delivery is emerging. Further research is needed to specify directions of mobile health research. It is necessary to identify and prioritize the research gaps in this domain.

  2. AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozzer, Andrea; de Meij, Alexander; Yoon, Jongmin; Astitha, Marina

    2016-04-01

    The trend of aerosol optical depth (AOD) between 2001 and 2010 is estimated globally and regionally from remote sensed observations by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer) and SeaWIFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) satellite sensor. The resulting trends have been compared to model results from the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry {[1]}), model. Although interannual variability is applied only to anthropogenic and biomass-burning emissions, the model is able to quantitatively reproduce the AOD trends as observed by MODIS, while some discrepancies are found when compared to MISR and SeaWIFS. An additional numerical simulation with the same model was performed, neglecting any temporal change in the emissions, i.e. with no interannual variability for any emission source. It is shown that decreasing AOD trends over the US and Europe are due to the decrease in the (anthropogenic) emissions. On contrary over the Sahara Desert and the Middle East region, the meteorological/dynamical changes in the last decade play a major role in driving the AOD trends. Further, over Southeast Asia, both meteorology and emissions changes are equally important in defining AOD trends {[2]}. Finally, decomposing the regional AOD trends into individual aerosol components reveals that the soluble components are the most dominant contributors to the total AOD, as their influence on the total AOD is enhanced by the aerosol water content. {[1]}: Jöckel, P., Kerkweg, A., Pozzer, A., Sander, R., Tost, H., Riede, H., Baumgaertner, A., Gromov, S., and Kern, B.: Development cycle 2 of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy2), Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 717-752, doi:10.5194/gmd-3-717-2010, 2010. {[2]}: Pozzer, A., de Meij, A., Yoon, J., Tost, H., Georgoulias, A. K., and Astitha, M.: AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5521-5535, doi:10.5194/acp-15-5521-2015, 2015.

  3. Why are estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions so similar (and why is this not so for monoterpenes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Arneth

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC are a chief uncertainty in calculating the burdens of important atmospheric compounds like tropospheric ozone or secondary organic aerosol, reflecting either imperfect chemical oxidation mechanisms or unreliable emission estimates, or both. To provide a starting point for a more systematic discussion we review here global isoprene and monoterpene emission estimates to-date. We note a surprisingly small variation in the predictions of global isoprene emission rate that is in stark contrast with our lack of process understanding and the small number of observations for model parameterisation and evaluation. Most of the models are based on similar emission algorithms, using fixed values for the emission capacity of various plant functional types. In some cases, these values are very similar but differ substantially in other models. The similarities with regard to the global isoprene emission rate would suggest that the dominant parameters driving the ultimate global estimate, and thus the dominant determinant of model sensitivity, are the specific emission algorithm and isoprene emission capacity. But the models also differ broadly with regard to their representation of net primary productivity, method of biome coverage determination and climate data. Contrary to isoprene, monoterpene estimates show significantly larger model-to-model variation although variation in terms of leaf algorithm, emission capacities, the way of model upscaling, vegetation cover or climatology used in terpene models are comparable to those used for isoprene. From our summary of published studies there appears to be no evidence that the terrestrial modelling community has been any more successful in "resolving unknowns" in the mechanisms that control global isoprene emissions, compared to global monoterpene emissions. Rather, the proliferation of common parameterization schemes within a large variety of model platforms

  4. Global Anthropogenic Emissions of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases 1990-2020

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The data in these Appendices to the Global Anthropogenic Emissions of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases (1990-2020) report provide historical and projected estimates of...

  5. Importance of Sulfate Aerosol in Evaluating the Relative Contributions of Regional Emissions to the Historical Global Temperature Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andronova, N.; Schlesinger, M.

    2004-01-01

    During the negotiations of the Kyoto Protocol the delegation of Brazil presented an approach for distributing the burden of emissions reductions among the Parties based on the effect of their cumulative historical emissions on the global-average near-surface temperature. The Letter to the Parties does not limit the emissions to be considered to be only greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Thus, in this paper we explore the importance of anthropogenic SOx emissions that are converted to sulfate aerosol in the atmosphere, together with the cumulative greenhouse gas emissions, in attributing historical temperature change. We use historical emissions and our simple climate model to estimate the relative contributions to global warming of the regional emissions by four Parties: OECD90, Africa and Latin America, Asia, and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union. Our results show that for most Parties the large warming contributed by their GHG emissions is largely offset by the correspondingly large cooling by their SOx emissions. Thus, OECD90 has become the dominant contributor to recent global warming following its large reduction in SOx emissions after 1980

  6. Spatial and Temporal Variability and Trends in 2001-2016 Global Fire Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earl, Nick; Simmonds, Ian

    2018-03-01

    Fire regimes across the globe have great spatial and temporal variability, and these are influence by many factors including anthropogenic management, climate, and vegetation types. Here we utilize the satellite-based "active fire" product, from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors, to statistically analyze variability and trends in fire activity from the global to regional scales. We split up the regions by economic development, region/geographical land use, clusters of fire-abundant areas, or by religious/cultural influence. Weekly cycle tests are conducted to highlight and quantify part of the anthropogenic influence on fire regime across the world. We find that there is a strong statistically significant decline in 2001-2016 active fires globally linked to an increase in net primary productivity observed in northern Africa, along with global agricultural expansion and intensification, which generally reduces fire activity. There are high levels of variability, however. The large-scale regions exhibit either little change or decreasing in fire activity except for strong increasing trends in India and China, where rapid population increase is occurring, leading to agricultural intensification and increased crop residue burning. Variability in Canada has been linked to a warming global climate leading to a longer growing season and higher fuel loads. Areas with a strong weekly cycle give a good indication of where fire management is being applied most extensively, for example, the United States, where few areas retain a natural fire regime.

  7. The contribution of China's emissions to global climate forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bengang; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Hauglustaine, Didier; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Chen, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Laurent Zhaoxin; Li, Yue; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Junfeng; Peng, Shushi; Shen, Zehao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Rong; Wang, Tao; Yin, Guodong; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhou, Feng

    2016-03-17

    Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on "common but differentiated responsibilities" reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry-climate model and a chemistry and transport model to quantify China's present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ± 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China's relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ± 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ± 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China's strongest contributions are 0.16 ± 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, -0.11 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ± 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China's eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon.

  8. Multilingual trends in a globalized world prospects and challenges

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, Navin Kumar

    2013-01-01

    This book presents evolving language education trends by drawing examples and case studies from around the world. Over the past few decades, significant economic and political changes have taken place around the world which have had a significant impact on language teaching and learning practices across the globe. With globalization, the focus of language education has shifted from monolingualism towards bilingualism and multilingualism, in that multilingual practices have become the norm rather than the exception in most parts of the world. This book brings together some of latest controversi

  9. The Effects of Chinese Dietary Trends on Global and Local Land Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthony, J.

    2015-12-01

    Global land scarcity is a major concern, which, due to climate change, lifestyle changes, and population growth, will only continue to worsen. It is a major driver of global environmental degradation, famine, and sociopolitical conflicts. With some 33% of the world's dwindling supply of arable land dedicated to grossly inefficient animal husbandry or animal feed production, it is easy to see that dietary consumption patterns play an important role. Although population growth in East Asia has stagnated, changing dietary trends mean that China is now the world's largest consumers of meat, consuming 25% of global meat production, despite having less than half of the American per capita equivalent. This paper assesses changing dietary consumption patterns of Taiwan, whose current per capita meat consumption surpasses all other East Asian countries, over the past 30 years and considers the relationship this has had on overall land consumption. We then consider dietary trends of Mainland China, which shares a common cultural heritage and whose current Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is similar to Taiwanese PPP levels in 1985. Finally we retrospectively project three alternative Taiwanese consumption patterns over the past 30 years, consider the effect of each scenario on per capita land consumption, and finally consider these results in terms of culturally analogues Mainland China.

  10. Preindustrial nitrous oxide emissions from the land biosphere estimated by using a global biogeochemistry model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Rongting; Tian, Hanqin; Lu, Chaoqun; Pan, Shufen; Chen, Jian; Yang, Jia; Zhang, Bowen

    2017-07-01

    To accurately assess how increased global nitrous oxide (N2O) emission has affected the climate system requires a robust estimation of the preindustrial N2O emissions since only the difference between current and preindustrial emissions represents net drivers of anthropogenic climate change. However, large uncertainty exists in previous estimates of preindustrial N2O emissions from the land biosphere, while preindustrial N2O emissions on the finer scales, such as regional, biome, or sector scales, have not been well quantified yet. In this study, we applied a process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) to estimate the magnitude and spatial patterns of preindustrial N2O fluxes at the biome, continental, and global level as driven by multiple environmental factors. Uncertainties associated with key parameters were also evaluated. Our study indicates that the mean of the preindustrial N2O emission was approximately 6.20 Tg N yr-1, with an uncertainty range of 4.76 to 8.13 Tg N yr-1. The estimated N2O emission varied significantly at spatial and biome levels. South America, Africa, and Southern Asia accounted for 34.12, 23.85, and 18.93 %, respectively, together contributing 76.90 % of global total emission. The tropics were identified as the major source of N2O released into the atmosphere, accounting for 64.66 % of the total emission. Our multi-scale estimates provide a robust reference for assessing the climate forcing of anthropogenic N2O emission from the land biosphere

  11. Preindustrial nitrous oxide emissions from the land biosphere estimated by using a global biogeochemistry model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Xu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available To accurately assess how increased global nitrous oxide (N2O emission has affected the climate system requires a robust estimation of the preindustrial N2O emissions since only the difference between current and preindustrial emissions represents net drivers of anthropogenic climate change. However, large uncertainty exists in previous estimates of preindustrial N2O emissions from the land biosphere, while preindustrial N2O emissions on the finer scales, such as regional, biome, or sector scales, have not been well quantified yet. In this study, we applied a process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM to estimate the magnitude and spatial patterns of preindustrial N2O fluxes at the biome, continental, and global level as driven by multiple environmental factors. Uncertainties associated with key parameters were also evaluated. Our study indicates that the mean of the preindustrial N2O emission was approximately 6.20 Tg N yr−1, with an uncertainty range of 4.76 to 8.13 Tg N yr−1. The estimated N2O emission varied significantly at spatial and biome levels. South America, Africa, and Southern Asia accounted for 34.12, 23.85, and 18.93 %, respectively, together contributing 76.90 % of global total emission. The tropics were identified as the major source of N2O released into the atmosphere, accounting for 64.66 % of the total emission. Our multi-scale estimates provide a robust reference for assessing the climate forcing of anthropogenic N2O emission from the land biosphere

  12. Trading Off Global Fuel Supply, CO2 Emissions and Sustainable Development.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liam Wagner

    Full Text Available The United Nations Conference on Climate Change (Paris 2015 reached an international agreement to keep the rise in global average temperature 'well below 2°C' and to 'aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C'. These reductions will have to be made in the face of rising global energy demand. Here a thoroughly validated dynamic econometric model (Eq 1 is used to forecast global energy demand growth (International Energy Agency and BP, which is driven by an increase of the global population (UN, energy use per person and real GDP (World Bank and Maddison. Even relatively conservative assumptions put a severe upward pressure on forecast global energy demand and highlight three areas of concern. First, is the potential for an exponential increase of fossil fuel consumption, if renewable energy systems are not rapidly scaled up. Second, implementation of internationally mandated CO2 emission controls are forecast to place serious constraints on fossil fuel use from ~2030 onward, raising energy security implications. Third is the challenge of maintaining the international 'pro-growth' strategy being used to meet poverty alleviation targets, while reducing CO2 emissions. Our findings place global economists and environmentalists on the same side as they indicate that the scale up of CO2 neutral renewable energy systems is not only important to protect against climate change, but to enhance global energy security by reducing our dependence of fossil fuels and to provide a sustainable basis for economic development and poverty alleviation. Very hard choices will have to be made to achieve 'sustainable development' goals.

  13. Trading Off Global Fuel Supply, CO2 Emissions and Sustainable Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Liam; Ross, Ian; Foster, John; Hankamer, Ben

    2016-01-01

    The United Nations Conference on Climate Change (Paris 2015) reached an international agreement to keep the rise in global average temperature 'well below 2°C' and to 'aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C'. These reductions will have to be made in the face of rising global energy demand. Here a thoroughly validated dynamic econometric model (Eq 1) is used to forecast global energy demand growth (International Energy Agency and BP), which is driven by an increase of the global population (UN), energy use per person and real GDP (World Bank and Maddison). Even relatively conservative assumptions put a severe upward pressure on forecast global energy demand and highlight three areas of concern. First, is the potential for an exponential increase of fossil fuel consumption, if renewable energy systems are not rapidly scaled up. Second, implementation of internationally mandated CO2 emission controls are forecast to place serious constraints on fossil fuel use from ~2030 onward, raising energy security implications. Third is the challenge of maintaining the international 'pro-growth' strategy being used to meet poverty alleviation targets, while reducing CO2 emissions. Our findings place global economists and environmentalists on the same side as they indicate that the scale up of CO2 neutral renewable energy systems is not only important to protect against climate change, but to enhance global energy security by reducing our dependence of fossil fuels and to provide a sustainable basis for economic development and poverty alleviation. Very hard choices will have to be made to achieve 'sustainable development' goals.

  14. Freight from Space: Evaluating Freight Activity and Emissions Trends from Satellite Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bickford, E.; Holloway, T.; Oberman, J.; Janssen, M.

    2012-12-01

    Heavy duty diesel freight trucks are the fastest growing source of highway emissions in the U.S., with domestic freight tonnage projected to double by 2050. Highway diesel vehicles currently account for 42% of on-road emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 58% of on-road fine particulate (PM2.5) emissions, and 21% of on-road carbon dioxide emissions. Because most surface air quality monitors are located in densely populated areas and not rural highways, it is difficult to use ground-based observations to validate spatial trends in transportation emissions. Therefore, we have employed satellite retrievals from the OMI instrument to inform surface freight transportation inventory estimates by validating modeled tropospheric vertical column total nitrogen dioxide (NO2) against satellite observations. For this research we built a roadway-by-roadway bottom-up diesel truck emissions inventory using GIS, the U.S. Federal Highway Administration's Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) activity dataset, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's MOVES emissions model. We use freight rail emissions from the Eastern Regional Technical Advisory Committee (ERTAC), inventory emissions from the Lake Michigan's Air Directors Consortium (LADCO) and the EPA's Community Multiscale Air Qualiy (CMAQ) model to simulate ground-level and tropospheric column concentrations of NO2. We also use the combination of models and satellite data to evaluate weekday-weekend patterns of NO2 concentrations and the relative contributions of highway diesel vehicles, highway gasoline vehicles, and freight rail to transportation-related pollution. This research presents the first evaluation of surface freight transport from space-based observations. We find satellite retrievals of surface pollutants provide a useful data tool for evaluating air quality models and constraining emissions sources.

  15. The construction and application of the AMSR-E global microwave emissivity database

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lijuan, Shi; Wenbo, Wu; Yubao, Qiu; Jingjing, Niu

    2014-01-01

    Land surface microwave emissivity is an important parameter to describe the characteristics of terrestrial microwave radiation, and is the necessary input amount for inversion various geophysical parameters. We use brightness temperature of the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) and synchronous land surface temperature and atmospheric temperature-humidity profile data obtained from the MODIS which aboard on satellite AQUA the same as AMSR-E, to retrieved microwave emissivity under clear sky conditions. After quality control, evaluation and design, the global microwave emissivity database of AMSR-E under clear sky conditions is established. This database include 2002–2011 years, different regions, different surface coverage, dual-polarized, 6.9,10.65, 18.7, 23.8, 36.5 and 89GHz, ascending and descending orbit, spatial resolution 25km, global 0.05 degrees, instantaneous and half-month averaged emissivity data. The database can provide the underlying surface information for precipitation algorithm, water-vapor algorithm, and long-resolution mode model (General Circulation Model (GCM) etc.). It also provides underlying surface information for the satellite simulator, and provides basic prior knowledge of land surface radiation for future satellite sensors design. The emissivity database or the fast emissivity obtained can get ready for climate model, energy balance, data assimilation, geophysical model simulation, inversion and estimates of the physical parameters under the cloud cover conditions

  16. Global warming and air transport : meeting the challenge of sustainable growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-04-01

    Aviation impacts community noise footprints, air quality, water quality, energy usage and availability, and the global climate. Trends show environmental impacts from aircraft noise and aviation emissions will be a critical constraint on capacity gro...

  17. Global diets link environmental sustainability and human health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilman, David; Clark, Michael

    2014-11-01

    Diets link environmental and human health. Rising incomes and urbanization are driving a global dietary transition in which traditional diets are replaced by diets higher in refined sugars, refined fats, oils and meats. By 2050 these dietary trends, if unchecked, would be a major contributor to an estimated 80 per cent increase in global agricultural greenhouse gas emissions from food production and to global land clearing. Moreover, these dietary shifts are greatly increasing the incidence of type II diabetes, coronary heart disease and other chronic non-communicable diseases that lower global life expectancies. Alternative diets that offer substantial health benefits could, if widely adopted, reduce global agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, reduce land clearing and resultant species extinctions, and help prevent such diet-related chronic non-communicable diseases. The implementation of dietary solutions to the tightly linked diet-environment-health trilemma is a global challenge, and opportunity, of great environmental and public health importance.

  18. Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Pakistan: National Trends and Global Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hafeez Bhatti, Abu Bakar; Dar, Faisal Saud; Waheed, Anum; Shafique, Kashif; Sultan, Faisal; Shah, Najmul Hassan

    2016-01-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) ranks second amongst all causes of cancer deaths globally. It is on a rise in Pakistan and might represent the most common cancer in adult males. Pakistan contributes significantly to global burden of hepatitis C, which is a known risk factor for HCC, and has one of the highest prevalence rates (>3%) in the world. In the absence of a national cancer registry and screening programs, prevalence of hepatitis and HCC only represents estimates of the real magnitude of this problem. In this review, we present various aspects of HCC in Pakistan, comparing and contrasting it with the global trends in cancer care. There is a general lack of awareness regarding risk factors of HCC in Pakistani population and prevalence of hepatitis C has increased. In addition, less common risk factors are also on a rise. Majority of patients present with advanced HCC and are not eligible for definitive treatment. We have attempted to highlight issues that have a significant bearing on HCC outcome in Pakistan. A set of strategies have been put forth that can potentially help reduce incidence and improve HCC outcome on national level. PMID:26955390

  19. Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Pakistan: National Trends and Global Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abu Bakar Hafeez Bhatti

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC ranks second amongst all causes of cancer deaths globally. It is on a rise in Pakistan and might represent the most common cancer in adult males. Pakistan contributes significantly to global burden of hepatitis C, which is a known risk factor for HCC, and has one of the highest prevalence rates (>3% in the world. In the absence of a national cancer registry and screening programs, prevalence of hepatitis and HCC only represents estimates of the real magnitude of this problem. In this review, we present various aspects of HCC in Pakistan, comparing and contrasting it with the global trends in cancer care. There is a general lack of awareness regarding risk factors of HCC in Pakistani population and prevalence of hepatitis C has increased. In addition, less common risk factors are also on a rise. Majority of patients present with advanced HCC and are not eligible for definitive treatment. We have attempted to highlight issues that have a significant bearing on HCC outcome in Pakistan. A set of strategies have been put forth that can potentially help reduce incidence and improve HCC outcome on national level.

  20. Scientometric trends and knowledge maps of global health systems research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Qiang; Chen, Kai; Yao, Lan; Lyu, Peng-hui; Yang, Tian-an; Luo, Fei; Chen, Shan-quan; He, Lu-yang; Liu, Zhi-yong

    2014-06-05

    In the last few decades, health systems research (HSR) has garnered much attention with a rapid increase in the related literature. This study aims to review and evaluate the global progress in HSR and assess the current quantitative trends. Based on data from the Web of Science database, scientometric methods and knowledge visualization techniques were applied to evaluate global scientific production and develop trends of HSR from 1900 to 2012. HSR has increased rapidly over the past 20 years. Currently, there are 28,787 research articles published in 3,674 journals that are listed in 140 Web of Science subject categories. The research in this field has mainly focused on public, environmental and occupational health (6,178, 21.46%), health care sciences and services (5,840, 20.29%), and general and internal medicine (3,783, 13.14%). The top 10 journals had published 2,969 (10.31%) articles and received 5,229 local citations and 40,271 global citations. The top 20 authors together contributed 628 papers, which accounted for a 2.18% share in the cumulative worldwide publications. The most productive author was McKee, from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, with 48 articles. In addition, USA and American institutions ranked the first in health system research productivity, with high citation times, followed by the UK and Canada. HSR is an interdisciplinary area. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries showed they are the leading nations in HSR. Meanwhile, American and Canadian institutions and the World Health Organization play a dominant role in the production, collaboration, and citation of high quality articles. Moreover, health policy and analysis research, health systems and sub-systems research, healthcare and services research, health, epidemiology and economics of communicable and non-communicable diseases, primary care research, health economics and health costs, and pharmacy of hospital have been identified as the

  1. Sulfur dioxide emissions in Asia in the period 1985-1997

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streets, David G.; Tsai, Nancy Y.; Akimoto, Hajime; Oka, Kaoru

    A consistent set of SO 2 emission trends has been developed for Asian countries for the time period 1985-1997. The trend is based on extrapolation of a detailed 1990 inventory, which was constructed as part of the World Bank's RAINS-ASIA project, using IEA energy-use data. The trend shows Asian SO 2 emissions growing from 33.7 Tg in 1990 to 39.2 Tg in 1997. Estimates interpolated from the RAINS-ASIA computer model suggest a value for 1997 of 46.4 Tg, assuming no major changes in emission abatement policies after 1990. The reduction in the 1997 value, by some 16%, is primarily due to regulatory requirements and other trends toward lower sulfur content of oil products and coal. A slowdown in the growth of emissions in China - due to a reduction in economic growth, the mining of higher-quality coals, enhanced environmental awareness, and a reduction in industrial coal use - has been instrumental in arresting the growth of Asian emissions. Most of the positive developments have occurred in East Asia, and high-emission growth rates persist in Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent. The outlook for the future is that Asian SO 2 emissions may well peak in the region of 40-45 Tg by the year 2020 or earlier, in contrast to previous predictions of 2020 emissions as high as 80-110 Tg. The trends developed in this paper are good news for the local and regional environment, particularly in East Asia. However, they also signify lower-than-anticipated concentrations of sulfate aerosol over the Asian continent, with the resulting possibility of greater-than-anticipated regional and global warming.

  2. Global emissions of refrigerants HCFC-22 and HFC-134a: Unforeseen seasonal contributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiang, Bin; Montzka, Stephen A.; Miller, Scot M.; Elkins, James W.; Moore, Fred L.; Atlas, Elliot L.; Miller, Ben R.; Weiss, Ray F.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Wofsy, Steven C.

    2014-01-01

    HCFC-22 (CHClF2) and HFC-134a (CH2FCF3) are two major gases currently used worldwide in domestic and commercial refrigeration and air conditioning. HCFC-22 contributes to stratospheric ozone depletion, and both species are potent greenhouse gases. In this work, we study in situ observations of HCFC-22 and HFC-134a taken from research aircraft over the Pacific Ocean in a 3-y span [HIaper-Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) 2009–2011] and combine these data with long-term ground observations from global surface sites [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) networks]. We find the global annual emissions of HCFC-22 and HFC-134a have increased substantially over the past two decades. Emissions of HFC-134a are consistently higher compared with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) inventory since 2000, by 60% more in recent years (2009–2012). Apart from these decadal emission constraints, we also quantify recent seasonal emission patterns showing that summertime emissions of HCFC-22 and HFC-134a are two to three times higher than wintertime emissions. This unforeseen large seasonal variation indicates that unaccounted mechanisms controlling refrigerant gas emissions are missing in the existing inventory estimates. Possible mechanisms enhancing refrigerant losses in summer are (i) higher vapor pressure in the sealed compartment of the system at summer high temperatures and (ii) more frequent use and service of refrigerators and air conditioners in summer months. Our results suggest that engineering (e.g., better temperature/vibration-resistant system sealing and new system design of more compact/efficient components) and regulatory (e.g., reinforcing system service regulations) steps to improve containment of these gases from working devices could effectively reduce their release to the atmosphere. PMID:25422438

  3. Global fertility and population trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bongaarts, John

    2015-01-01

    Over the past several decades, the world and most countries have undergone unprecedented demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the rise in human numbers, and there are also important trends in fertility, family structure, mortality, migration, urbanization, and population aging. This paper summarizes past trends and projections in fertility and population. After reaching 2.5 billion in 1950, the world population grew rapidly to 7.2 billion in 2013 and the projections expect this total to be 10.9 billion by 2100. World regions differ widely in their demographic trends, with rapid population growth and high fertility continuing in the poorest countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, while population decline, population aging, and very low fertility are now a key concern in many developed countries. These trends have important implications for human welfare and are of interest to policy makers. The conclusion comments briefly on policy options to address these adverse trends. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  4. Legislation, standards and methods for mercury emissions control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-04-15

    Mercury is an element of growing global concern. The United Nations Environment Programme plans to finalise and ratify a new global legally-binding convention on mercury by 2013. Canada already has legislation on mercury emissions from coal-fired utilities and the USA has recently released the new Mercury and Air Toxics Standard. Although other countries may not have mercury-specific legislation as such, many have legislation which results in significant co-benefit mercury reduction due to the installation of effective flue-gas cleaning technologies. This report reviews the current situation and trends in mercury emission legislation and, where possible, discusses the actions that will be taken under proposed or impending standards globally and regionally. The report also reviews the methods currently applied for mercury control and for mercury emission measurement with emphasis on the methodologies most appropriate for compliance. Examples of the methods of mercury control currently deployed in the USA, Canada and elsewhere are included.

  5. Global Energy Market Trends and Learnings from German's Energiewende

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluesener, P.

    2016-01-01

    COP21 is the cornerstone for the decarbonization of energy markets globally: for the first time a commitment for the reduction of GHG emissions was reached on a global level. Although the national emission reduction contributions (INDC) don't yet fulfill a 2 degree of C path, they mark a big move in mind set for the need of emission reduction to limit climate change. But how can this goal be reached while sustaining energy supply security and affordability of energy. Germany is a pioneer in terms of a radical change of national energy system, but is the German 'Energiewende' a blue-line print for energy transition in general? Germany has made big progress in the installation of renewables esp. Wind and Solar PV. Installed capacity for Wind and Solar power reached more than 80 GW in 2015, but new installations esp. for Solar PV have significantly slowed down in the recent past after some years of record installation of 7-8 GW per year in 2010-2012. With the growing share of fluctuating renewables such and wind and solar PV the system integration became an issue. There are huge differences in Wind and Solar PV installations between the North and South of Germany. Peaks in power generation either from Wind or Solar can't be operated within the regions anymore. While the transmission line from North to South are missing and construction is substantially delayed, the temporary regional oversupply is managed more or less by power flows into neighbouring countries. Beside the technical aspects there are also economic issues. Despite significant cost reduction for renewables the EEG levy is continuously growing. Due to the regional imbalances the efforts for redispatch of conventional power plants are increasing and thereby the cost for system balance. The share of levies and taxes on retail electricity prices is above 50 percent since some years. So far the policy failed to limit the increase of retail electricity prices but affordability of energy became a greater

  6. MGIMO-University in “Go To Think Tanks” 2015 Ranking: Global Trends, Local Responses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maxim V. Kharkevich

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the latest issue of Go to think tank ranking and MGIMO position in it. It also considers global trends related to changes in the environment and forms of activities of research centers, identified by the ranking. In particular, it notes the changes in the system of financing think tanks from the few large grants for an extended period of time to a small but numerous grants for short periods for specific projects. It also notes the increasing state pressure on think tanks from around the world. In addition, it points to increased competition on the market of ideas and scientific expertise. Research centers have to adapt to these changes. In view of these trends the experience of one of the research centers of MGIMO, the Center for Military-Political Studies is considered. Innovation activities of the Centre on a whole corresponds to global trends. The center is seeking to diversify its sources of funding and enhances the focus of research topics - long-term forecasting of the international military and political relations.

  7. Global trends and priorities for agriculture development in the beginning of the xxi century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Vasil’evich Smekalov

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper pays attention to global issues related to the growth of population and food production: reduced growth rate of agricultural production, reduction of resource potential of agriculture and others. Critical factors and trends of structural changes in agriculture are identified. Results of comparative analysis of the development of farms in European countries and Russia are presented. Studies have shown that at the end of the last century there have been the following trends in the global agriculture: there has been a trend of farm consolidation in size, new controls and control of production are were introduced as well as more stringent quality standards of ecology were launched, which, in turn, require introduction of new technics and technologies; the processes of plants and animals development become more controllable and manageable. Conseptual foresights of pricing in the food market are given. Priority areas of agricultural policy aimed at creating conditions for sustainable rural development and accelerated growth in agricultural production by improving its competitiveness are identified

  8. Long-term trends of black carbon and sulphate aerosol in the Arctic: changes in atmospheric transport and source region emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Hirdman

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available As a part of the IPY project POLARCAT (Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements and Models, of Climate, Chemistry, Aerosols and Transport and building on previous work (Hirdman et al., 2010, this paper studies the long-term trends of both atmospheric transport as well as equivalent black carbon (EBC and sulphate for the three Arctic stations Alert, Barrow and Zeppelin. We find a general downward trend in the measured EBC concentrations at all three stations, with a decrease of −2.1±0.4 ng m−3 yr−1 (for the years 1989–2008 and −1.4±0.8 ng m−3 yr−1 (2002–2009 at Alert and Zeppelin respectively. The decrease at Barrow is, however, not statistically significant. The measured sulphate concentrations show a decreasing trend at Alert and Zeppelin of −15±3 ng m−3 yr−1 (1985–2006 and −1.3±1.2 ng m−3 yr−1 (1990–2008 respectively, while there is no trend detectable at Barrow.

    To reveal the contribution of different source regions on these trends, we used a cluster analysis of the output of the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART run backward in time from the measurement stations. We have investigated to what extent variations in the atmospheric circulation, expressed as variations in the frequencies of the transport from four source regions with different emission rates, can explain the long-term trends in EBC and sulphate measured at these stations. We find that the long-term trend in the atmospheric circulation can only explain a minor fraction of the overall downward trend seen in the measurements of EBC (0.3–7.2% and sulphate (0.3–5.3% at the Arctic stations. The changes in emissions are dominant in explaining the trends. We find that the highest EBC and sulphate concentrations are associated with transport from Northern Eurasia and decreasing emissions in this region drive the

  9. Comparison of global inventories of CO emissions from biomass burning derived from remotely sensed data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Stroppiana

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available We compare five global inventories of monthly CO emissions named VGT, ATSR, MODIS, GFED3 and MOPITT based on remotely sensed active fires and/or burned area products for the year 2003. The objective is to highlight similarities and differences by focusing on the geographical and temporal distribution and on the emissions for three broad land cover classes (forest, savanna/grassland and agriculture. Globally, CO emissions for the year 2003 range between 365 Tg CO (GFED3 and 1422 Tg CO (VGT. Despite the large uncertainty in the total amounts, some common spatial patterns typical of biomass burning can be identified in the boreal forests of Siberia, in agricultural areas of Eastern Europe and Russia and in savanna ecosystems of South America, Africa and Australia. Regionally, the largest difference in terms of total amounts (CV > 100% and seasonality is observed at the northernmost latitudes, especially in North America and Siberia where VGT appears to overestimate the area affected by fires. On the contrary, Africa shows the best agreement both in terms of total annual amounts (CV = 31% and of seasonality despite some overestimation of emissions from forest and agriculture observed in the MODIS inventory. In Africa VGT provides the most reliable seasonality. Looking at the broad land cover types, the range of contribution to the global emissions of CO is 64–74%, 23–32% and 3–4% for forest, savanna/grassland and agriculture, respectively. These results suggest that there is still large uncertainty in global estimates of emissions and it increases if the comparison is carried by out taking into account the temporal (month and spatial (0.5° × 0.5° cell dimensions. Besides the area affected by fires, also vegetation characteristics and conditions at the time of burning should also be accurately parameterized since they can greatly influence the global estimates of CO emissions.

  10. How China’s Options Will Determine Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clifford Singer

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Carbon dioxide emissions, global average temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and surface ocean mixed layer acidity are extrapolated using analyses calibrated against extensive time series data for nine global regions. Extrapolation of historical trends without policy-driven limitations has China responsible for about half of global CO2 emissions by the middle of the twenty-first century. Results are presented for three possible actions taken by China to limit global average temperature increase to levels it considers to be to its advantage: (1 Help develop low-carbon energy technology broadly competitive with unbridled carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels; (2 Entice other countries to join in limiting use of what would otherwise be economically competitive fossil fuels; (3 Apply geo-engineering techniques such as stratospheric sulfur injection to limit global average temperature increase, without a major global reduction in carbon emissions. Taking into account China’s expected influence and approach to limiting the impact of anthropogenic climate change allows for a narrower range of possible outcomes than for a set of scenarios that are not constrained by analysis of likely policy-driven limitations. While China could hold back on implementing geoengineering given a remarkable amount of international cooperation on limiting fossil carbon burning, an outcome where geoengineering is used to delay the perceived need to limit the atmospheric CO2 concentration may be difficult to avoid.

  11. Global Burned Area and Biomass Burning Emissions from Small Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randerson, J. T.; Chen, Y.; vanderWerf, G. R.; Rogers, B. M.; Morton, D. C.

    2012-01-01

    In several biomes, including croplands, wooded savannas, and tropical forests, many small fires occur each year that are well below the detection limit of the current generation of global burned area products derived from moderate resolution surface reflectance imagery. Although these fires often generate thermal anomalies that can be detected by satellites, their contributions to burned area and carbon fluxes have not been systematically quantified across different regions and continents. Here we developed a preliminary method for combining 1-km thermal anomalies (active fires) and 500 m burned area observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to estimate the influence of these fires. In our approach, we calculated the number of active fires inside and outside of 500 m burn scars derived from reflectance data. We estimated small fire burned area by computing the difference normalized burn ratio (dNBR) for these two sets of active fires and then combining these observations with other information. In a final step, we used the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) biogeochemical model to estimate the impact of these fires on biomass burning emissions. We found that the spatial distribution of active fires and 500 m burned areas were in close agreement in ecosystems that experience large fires, including savannas across southern Africa and Australia and boreal forests in North America and Eurasia. In other areas, however, we observed many active fires outside of burned area perimeters. Fire radiative power was lower for this class of active fires. Small fires substantially increased burned area in several continental-scale regions, including Equatorial Asia (157%), Central America (143%), and Southeast Asia (90%) during 2001-2010. Globally, accounting for small fires increased total burned area by approximately by 35%, from 345 Mha/yr to 464 Mha/yr. A formal quantification of uncertainties was not possible, but sensitivity

  12. Can trade opportunities and returns be generated in a trend persistent series? Evidence from global indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, S. K.; Bawa, Jaslene

    2017-03-01

    In this study, we explore the possibility of generating trade opportunities and returns when a financial stock index series is trend persistent. Through application of Hurst coefficient based on the modified range to standard deviation analysis (Weron, 2002) in a sample of 31 leading global indices during the period December 2000 to November 2015, we found periods of trend persistence. We developed and tested a set of trading strategies on these periods of trend persistent in the financial series and found that significant positive returns can be generated when a series displayed upward trend persistence.

  13.  Project Management as a Global Trend for Organization Work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kampf, Constance

    in multination and global companies, understanding the power of visual rhetoric, genre and writing processes in the context of project management documentation can be an advantage for technical communicators.  In addition, project management tools and online documentation spaces are objects which cross...... Project Management as a Global Trend for Organization Work: Implications for Technical Communication Project Management tools and processes offer a visual approach to producing knowledge about a project in order to complete it.  As project management practices are used with increasing frequency......-cultural teams use to function.  This presentation will explore the potential of Project Management to be tightly integrated in Technical Communication curricula through a communications approach to project management.  Questions for discussion include: How tightly is project management integrated into different...

  14. A comparability analysis of global burden sharing GHG reduction scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciscar, Juan-Carlos; Saveyn, Bert; Soria, Antonio; Szabo, Laszlo; Van Regemorter, Denise; Van Ierland, Tom

    2013-01-01

    The distribution of the mitigation burden across countries is a key issue regarding the post-2012 global climate policies. This article explores the economic implications of alternative allocation rules, an assessment made in the run-up to the COP15 in Copenhagen (December 2009). We analyse the comparability of the allocations across countries based on four single indicators: GDP per capita, GHG emissions per GDP, GHG emission trends in the recent past, and population growth. The multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model of the global economy, GEM-E3, is used for that purpose. Further, the article also compares a perfect carbon market without transaction costs with the case of a gradually developing carbon market, i.e. a carbon market with (gradually diminishing) transaction costs. - Highlights: ► Burden sharing of global mitigation efforts should consider equity and efficiency. ► The comparability of allocations across countries is based on four indicators. ► The four indicators are GDP/capita, GHG/GDP, population growth, and GHG trend. ► Any possible agreement on effort comparability needs a combination of indicators. ► We analyse the role played by the degree of flexibility in global carbon trading

  15. Time trend of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon emission factors from motor vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Shu; Shen, Huizhong; Wang, Rong; Sun, Kang

    2010-05-01

    Motor vehicle is an important emission source of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and this is particularly true in urban areas. Motor vehicle emission factors (EFs) for individual PAH compound reported in the literature varied for 4 to 5 orders of magnitude, leading to high uncertainty in emission estimation. In this study, the major factors affecting EFs were investigated and characterized by regression models. Based on the model developed, a motor vehicle PAH emission inventory at country level was developed. It was found that country and model year are the most important factors affecting EFs for PAHs. The influence of the two factors can be quantified by a single parameter of per capita gross domestic production (purchasing power parity), which was used as the independent variables of the regression models. The models developed using randomly selected 80% of measurements and tested with the remained data accounted for 28 to 48% of the variations in EFs for PAHs measured in 16 countries over 50 years. The regression coefficients of the EF prediction models were molecular weight dependent. Motor vehicle emission of PAHs from individual countries in the world in 1985, 1995, 2005, 2015, and 2025 were calculated and the global emission of total PAHs were 470, 390, and 430 Gg in 1985, 1995, and 2005 and will be 290 and 130 Gg in 2015 and 2025, respectively. The emission is currently passing its peak and will decrease due to significant decrease in China and other developing countries.

  16. High-global warming potential F-gas emissions in California: comparison of ambient-based versus inventory-based emission estimates, and implications of refined estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, Glenn; Zhan, Tao; Hsu, Ying-Kuang; Gupta, Pamela; Pederson, James; Croes, Bart; Blake, Donald R; Barletta, Barbara; Meinardi, Simone; Ashford, Paul; Vetter, Arnie; Saba, Sabine; Slim, Rayan; Palandre, Lionel; Clodic, Denis; Mathis, Pamela; Wagner, Mark; Forgie, Julia; Dwyer, Harry; Wolf, Katy

    2014-01-21

    To provide information for greenhouse gas reduction policies, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) inventories annual emissions of high-global-warming potential (GWP) fluorinated gases, the fastest growing sector of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. Baseline 2008 F-gas emissions estimates for selected chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-12), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC-22), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC-134a) made with an inventory-based methodology were compared to emissions estimates made by ambient-based measurements. Significant discrepancies were found, with the inventory-based emissions methodology resulting in a systematic 42% under-estimation of CFC-12 emissions from older refrigeration equipment and older vehicles, and a systematic 114% overestimation of emissions for HFC-134a, a refrigerant substitute for phased-out CFCs. Initial, inventory-based estimates for all F-gas emissions had assumed that equipment is no longer in service once it reaches its average lifetime of use. Revised emission estimates using improved models for equipment age at end-of-life, inventories, and leak rates specific to California resulted in F-gas emissions estimates in closer agreement to ambient-based measurements. The discrepancies between inventory-based estimates and ambient-based measurements were reduced from -42% to -6% for CFC-12, and from +114% to +9% for HFC-134a.

  17. The effects of potential changes in United States beef production on global grazing systems and greenhouse gas emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumortier, Jerome; Hayes, Dermot J; Carriquiry, Miguel; Elobeid, Amani; Fabiosa, Jacinto F; Dong, Fengxia; Du Xiaodong; Martin, Pamela A; Mulik, Kranti

    2012-01-01

    We couple a global agricultural production and trade model with a greenhouse gas model to assess leakage associated with modified beef production in the United States. The effects on emissions from agricultural production (i.e., methane and nitrous oxide emissions from livestock and crop management) as well as from land-use change, especially grazing system, are assessed. We find that a reduction of US beef production induces net carbon emissions from global land-use change ranging from 37 to 85 kg CO 2 -equivalent per kg of beef annualized over 20 years. The increase in emissions is caused by an inelastic domestic demand as well as more land-intensive cattle production systems internationally. Changes in livestock production systems such as increasing stocking rate could partially offset emission increases from pasture expansion. In addition, net emissions from enteric fermentation increase because methane emissions per kilogram of beef tend to be higher globally. (letter)

  18. Continued increase of CFC-113a (CCl3CF3) mixing ratios in the global atmosphere: emissions, occurrence and potential sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adcock, Karina E.; Reeves, Claire E.; Gooch, Lauren J.; Leedham Elvidge, Emma C.; Ashfold, Matthew J.; Brenninkmeijer, Carl A. M.; Chou, Charles; Fraser, Paul J.; Langenfelds, Ray L.; Hanif, Norfazrin Mohd; O'Doherty, Simon; Oram, David E.; Ou-Yang, Chang-Feng; Moi Phang, Siew; Abu Samah, Azizan; Röckmann, Thomas; Sturges, William T.; Laube, Johannes C.

    2018-04-01

    Atmospheric measurements of the ozone-depleting substance CFC-113a (CCl3CF3) are reported from ground-based stations in Australia, Taiwan, Malaysia and the United Kingdom, together with aircraft-based data for the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Building on previous work, we find that, since the gas first appeared in the atmosphere in the 1960s, global CFC-113a mixing ratios have been increasing monotonically to the present day. Mixing ratios of CFC-113a have increased by 40 % from 0.50 to 0.70 ppt in the Southern Hemisphere between the end of the previously published record in December 2012 and February 2017. We derive updated global emissions of 1.7 Gg yr-1 on average between 2012 and 2016 using a two-dimensional model. We compare the long-term trends and emissions of CFC-113a to those of its structural isomer, CFC-113 (CClF2CCl2F), which still has much higher mixing ratios than CFC-113a, despite its mixing ratios and emissions decreasing since the 1990s. The continued presence of northern hemispheric emissions of CFC-113a is confirmed by our measurements of a persistent interhemispheric gradient in its mixing ratios, with higher mixing ratios in the Northern Hemisphere. The sources of CFC-113a are still unclear, but we present evidence that indicates large emissions in East Asia, most likely due to its use as a chemical involved in the production of hydrofluorocarbons. Our aircraft data confirm the interhemispheric gradient as well as showing mixing ratios consistent with ground-based observations and the relatively long atmospheric lifetime of CFC-113a. CFC-113a is the only known CFC for which abundances are still increasing substantially in the atmosphere.

  19. Impact of inter-sectoral trade on national and global CO2 emissions: An empirical analysis of China and US

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo Jie; Zou Lele; Wei Yiming

    2010-01-01

    This paper attempts to discuss the CO 2 emissions embodied in Sino-US international trade using a sector approach. Based on an input-output model established in this study, we quantify the impact of Sino-US international trade on national and global CO 2 emissions. Our initial findings reveal that: In 2005, the US reduced 190.13 Mt CO 2 emissions through the consumption of imported goods from China, while increasing global CO 2 emissions by about 515.25 Mt. Similarly, China reduced 178.62 Mt CO 2 emissions through the consumption of US goods, while reducing global CO 2 emissions by 129.93 Mt. Sino-US international trade increased global CO 2 emissions by 385.32 Mt as a whole, of which the Chemical, Fabricated Metal Products, Non-metallic Mineral Products and Transportation Equipment sectors contributed an 86.71% share. Therefore, we suggest that accelerating the adjustment of China's trade structure and export of US advanced technologies and experience related to clean production and energy efficiency to China as the way to reduce the negative impact of Sino-US trade on national and global CO 2 emissions. This behavior should take into account the processing and manufacturing industries as a priority, especially the Chemical, Fabricated Metal Products, Non-metallic Mineral Products and Transportation Equipment sectors.

  20. The impacts of emission trends of POPs on human concentration dynamics: Lessons learned from a longitudinal study in Norway (1979-2007).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nøst, Therese Haugdahl; Sandanger, Torkjel Manning; Nieboer, Evert; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Breivik, Knut

    2017-06-01

    In this short communication, our focus is on the relationship between human concentrations of select persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and environmental emissions. It is based on a longitudinal study (1979-2007) conducted in Norway. Our aim was to extract general insights from observed and predicted temporal trends in human concentrations of 49 POPs to assist in the design and interpretation of future monitoring studies. Despite considerable decline for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) since 1986, the sum of the targeted POPs increased from 1979 until 2001, with per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances (PFASs) dominating recent blood burden measurements. Specifically, the time trends in serum concentrations of POPs, exemplified by PCB-153, 1,1'-(2,2,2-Trichloroethane-1,1-diyl)bis(4-chlorobenzene) (DDT) and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), resembled the trends in available data on their emissions, production or use. These observations suggest that interpretations of human biomonitoring data on persistent compounds must consider historic emissions, which likely vary spatially across the globe. Based on the different temporal trends observed across POP groups, it is evident that generalizations regarding temporal aspects have limitations. The discussion herein underscores the importance of understanding temporal variations in environmental emissions when designing and interpreting human biomonitoring studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  1. Spatially explicit trends in the global conservation status of vertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Ana S L; Brooks, Thomas M; Butchart, Stuart H M; Chanson, Janice; Cox, Neil; Hoffmann, Michael; Stuart, Simon N

    2014-01-01

    The world's governments have committed to preventing the extinction of threatened species and improving their conservation status by 2020. However, biodiversity is not evenly distributed across space, and neither are the drivers of its decline, and so different regions face very different challenges. Here, we quantify the contribution of regions and countries towards recent global trends in vertebrate conservation status (as measured by the Red List Index), to guide action towards the 2020 target. We found that>50% of the global deterioration in the conservation status of birds, mammals and amphibians is concentrated in nations (e.g. Cook Islands, Fiji, Mauritius, Seychelles, and Tonga), have achieved net improvements. Per capita wealth does not explain these patterns, with two of the richest countries - United States and Australia - fairing conspicuously poorly. Different countries were affected by different combinations of threats. Reducing global rates of biodiversity loss will require investment in the regions and countries with the highest responsibility for the world's biodiversity, focusing on conserving those species and areas most in peril and on reducing the drivers with the highest impacts.

  2. International nurse migrations: Global trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivković Marija

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents global trends of migration of nurses, as specific qualified personnel in high demand. In the last couple of decades, and especially in the last couple of years, many countries have faced the problem of insufficient healthcare workers, particularly nurses. Reasons for this occurrence might be found in the deficiencies of their education systems, as well as the population aging of northern and western countries. As a response to this deficiency, those countries have begun intensive recruitment of foreign qualified female healthcare workers, which has led to the point that nurse migration today presents a very intense, and by many accounts specific migration flow. Female migrating work force is often in pursuit of low-wage and lowqualified work. Nurse migration is actually an example of motion of qualified female migrants in pursuit for better employment opportunities. While such a way of filling up the vacant positions works for the “importing” countries as a temporary solution, departure of trained female personnel presents a significant loss for the originating countries. In this paper we pay special attention to the countries who are the main “importers”, but also to those who are “exporters” of nursing personnel, and to specific national strategies these countries have applied.

  3. A New Global Open Source Marine Hydrocarbon Emission Site Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyia, E., Jr.; Wood, W. T.; Barnard, A.; Dada, T.; Qazzaz, M.; Lee, T. R.; Herrera, E.; Sager, W.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrocarbon emission sites (e.g. seeps) discharge large volumes of fluids and gases into the oceans that are not only important for biogeochemical budgets, but also support abundant chemosynthetic communities. Documenting the locations of modern emissions is a first step towards understanding and monitoring how they affect the global state of the seafloor and oceans. Currently, no global open source (i.e. non-proprietry) detailed maps of emissions sites are available. As a solution, we have created a database that is housed within an Excel spreadsheet and use the latest versions of Earthpoint and Google Earth for position coordinate conversions and data mapping, respectively. To date, approximately 1,000 data points have been collected from referenceable sources across the globe, and we are continualy expanding the dataset. Due to the variety of spatial extents encountered, to identify each site we used two different methods: 1) point (x, y, z) locations for individual sites and; 2) delineation of areas where sites are clustered. Certain well-known areas, such as the Gulf of Mexico and the Mediterranean Sea, have a greater abundance of information; whereas significantly less information is available in other regions due to the absence of emission sites, lack of data, or because the existing data is proprietary. Although the geographical extent of the data is currently restricted to regions where the most data is publicly available, as the database matures, we expect to have more complete coverage of the world's oceans. This database is an information resource that consolidates and organizes the existing literature on hydrocarbons released into the marine environment, thereby providing a comprehensive reference for future work. We expect that the availability of seafloor hydrocarbon emission maps will benefit scientific understanding of hydrocarbon rich areas as well as potentially aiding hydrocarbon exploration and environmental impact assessements.

  4. CO2 emissions driven by wind are produced at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosario Moya, M.; Sánchez-Cañete, Enrique P.; Kowalski, Andrew S.; Serrano-Ortiz, Penélope; López-Ballesteros, Ana; Oyonarte, Cecilio; Domingo, Francisco

    2017-04-01

    emissions occur globally and therefore, their contribution to the global NEE requires further investigation in order to better understand its drivers.

  5. A global single-sensor analysis of 2002-2011 tropospheric nitrogen dioxide trends observed from space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, P.; van der A, R. J.

    2012-08-01

    A global nine-year archive of monthly tropospheric NO2 data acquired by the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY (SCIAMACHY) instrument was analyzed with respect to trends between August 2002 and August 2011. In the past, similar studies relied on combining data from multiple sensors; however, the length of the SCIAMACHY data set now for the first time allows utilization of a consistent time series from just a single sensor for mapping NO2 trends at comparatively high horizontal resolution (0.25°). This study provides an updated analysis of global patterns in NO2 trends and finds that previously reported decreases in tropospheric NO2 over Europe and the United States as well as strong increases over China and several megacities in Asia have continued in recent years. Positive trends of up to 4.05 (±0.41) × 1015 molecules cm-2 yr-1 and up to 19.7 (±1.9) % yr-1 were found over China, with the regional mean trend being 7.3 (±3.1) % yr-1. The megacity with the most rapid relative increase was found to be Dhaka in Bangladesh. Subsequently focusing on Europe, the study further analyzes trends by country and finds significantly decreasing trends for seven countries ranging from -3.0 (±1.6) % yr-1 to -4.5 (±2.3) % yr-1. A comparison of the satellite data with station data indicates that the trends derived from both sources show substantial differences on the station scale, i.e., when comparing a station trend directly with the equivalent satellite-derived trend at the same location, but provide quite similar large-scale spatial patterns. Finally, the SCIAMACHY-derived NO2 trends are compared with equivalent trends in NO2concentration computed using the Co-operative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP) model. The results show that the spatial patterns in trends computed from both data sources mostly agree in Central and Western Europe, whereas substantial differences

  6. China's transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yin, Xiang; Chen, Wenying; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.; Kim, Son H.; Patel, Pralit L.; Yu, Sha; Kyle, G. Page

    2015-01-01

    Rapidly growing energy demand from China's transportation sector in the last two decades have raised concerns over national energy security, local air pollution, and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, and there is broad consensus that China's transportation sector will continue to grow in the coming decades. This paper explores the future development of China's transportation sector in terms of service demands, final energy consumption, and CO 2 emissions, and their interactions with global climate policy. This study develops a detailed China transportation energy model that is nested in an integrated assessment model—Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)—to evaluate the long-term energy consumption and CO 2 emissions of China's transportation sector from a global perspective. The analysis suggests that, without major policy intervention, future transportation energy consumption and CO 2 emissions will continue to rapidly increase and the transportation sector will remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Although carbon price policies may significantly reduce the sector's energy consumption and CO 2 emissions, the associated changes in service demands and modal split will be modest, particularly in the passenger transport sector. The analysis also suggests that it is more difficult to decarbonize the transportation sector than other sectors of the economy, primarily owing to its heavy reliance on petroleum products. -- Highlights: •Transport sector in China are analyzed from a global perspective. •Passenger transport turnover reduction and modal shifts is less sensitive to carbon price. •Bio-fuel, electricity and H 2 will play an important role for carbon mitigation in transport sector. •The transport sector is more difficult to decarbonize than other sectors

  7. FY 1998 annual summary report on recent trends of global warming prevention measures with fluorochlorohydrocarbon alternatives; 1998 nendo daitia furon no chikyu ondanka taisaku doko ni kansuru chosa hokokusho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-03-01

    Described herein are the recent trends of the ozone layer protection and global warming prevention measures. Latest international information has been collected by attending the 10th Meeting of the Party of Montreal Protocol, and the 17th and 18th Open Ended Working Group. The important decisions made so far are investigation on the novel ozone layer destruction substances, requirement of studying on decommissioning Halon facilities, collection of information of HFC and PFC, and reporting to IPCC. Information regarding regulation trends of HFC, PFC and SF{sub 6} are collected by attending the COP-4 meeting and the preparatory meetings therefor. The report on these 3 substances will be completed in July or so, 1999. The trends of technical development in HCFC alternatives in refrigeration and blowing sectors were investigated. HFC-245fa and HFC-365mfc are introduced. Also introduced is latest information regarding the emission estimation and control measures of HFC in USA and UK, emission control measures of SF{sub 6} in USA and Japan, and techniques for destruction of CFC and the like, which could be the basic techniques for controlling diffusion of HFC. The CFC phase-out programs of China, the biggest ozone layer destruction substance (e.g., CFC) consuming country, are also outlined. (NEDO)

  8. Implications of Uncertainty in Fossil Fuel Emissions for Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, A. W.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Mao, J.; Andres, R. J.

    2017-12-01

    Given observations of the increase in atmospheric CO2, estimates of anthropogenic emissions and models of oceanic CO2 uptake, one can estimate net global CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems as the residual of the balanced global carbon budget. Estimates from the Global Carbon Project 2016 show that terrestrial ecosystems are a growing sink for atmospheric CO2 (averaging 2.12 Gt C y-1 for the period 1959-2015 with a growth rate of 0.03 Gt C y-1 per year) but with considerable year-to-year variability (standard deviation of 1.07 Gt C y-1). Within the uncertainty of the observations, emissions estimates and ocean modeling, this residual calculation is a robust estimate of a global terrestrial sink for CO2. A task of terrestrial ecosystem science is to explain the trend and variability in this estimate. However, "within the uncertainty" is an important caveat. The uncertainty (2σ; 95% confidence interval) in fossil fuel emissions is 8.4% (±0.8 Gt C in 2015). Combined with uncertainty in other carbon budget components, the 2σ uncertainty surrounding the global net terrestrial ecosystem CO2 exchange is ±1.6 Gt C y-1. Ignoring the uncertainty, the estimate of a general terrestrial sink includes 2 years (1987 and 1998) in which terrestrial ecosystems are a small source of CO2 to the atmosphere. However, with 2σ uncertainty, terrestrial ecosystems may have been a source in as many as 18 years. We examine how well global terrestrial biosphere models simulate the trend and interannual variability of the global-budget estimate of the terrestrial sink within the context of this uncertainty (e.g., which models fall outside the 2σ uncertainty and in what years). Models are generally capable of reproducing the trend in net terrestrial exchange, but are less able to capture interannual variability and often fall outside the 2σ uncertainty. The trend in the residual carbon budget estimate is primarily associated with the increase in atmospheric CO2

  9. Evaluation of metrics and baselines for tracking greenhouse gas emissions trends: Recommendations for the California climate action registry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Price, Lynn; Murtishaw, Scott; Worrell, Ernst

    2003-06-01

    Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) was asked to provide technical assistance to the California Energy Commission (Energy Commission) related to the Registry in three areas: (1) assessing the availability and usefulness of industry-specific metrics, (2) evaluating various methods for establishing baselines for calculating GHG emissions reductions related to specific actions taken by Registry participants, and (3) establishing methods for calculating electricity CO2 emission factors. The third area of research was completed in 2002 and is documented in Estimating Carbon Dioxide Emissions Factors for the California Electric Power Sector (Marnay et al., 2002). This report documents our findings related to the first areas of research. For the first area of research, the overall objective was to evaluate the metrics, such as emissions per economic unit or emissions per unit of production that can be used to report GHG emissions trends for potential Registry participants. This research began with an effort to identify methodologies, benchmarking programs, inventories, protocols, and registries that u se industry-specific metrics to track trends in energy use or GHG emissions in order to determine what types of metrics have already been developed. The next step in developing industry-specific metrics was to assess the availability of data needed to determine metric development priorities. Berkeley Lab also determined the relative importance of different potential Registry participant categories in order to asses s the availability of sectoral or industry-specific metrics and then identified industry-specific metrics in use around the world. While a plethora of metrics was identified, no one metric that adequately tracks trends in GHG emissions while maintaining confidentiality of data was identified. As a result of this review, Berkeley Lab recommends the development of a GHG intensity index as a new metric for reporting and tracking GHG emissions trends.Such an index could provide an

  10. Remote sensing of trend and seasonal variability of greenhouse gas emissions from the Los Angeles basin using an FTS on Mount Wilson

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, C.; Fu, D.; Pongetti, T. J.; Newman, S.; Yung, Y. L.; Sander, S. P.

    2013-12-01

    Cities, such as Los Angeles, are significant sources of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). With the growth of populations in cities worldwide, GHG emissions will increase, and monitoring the temporal trends will provide crucial data for global climate models as well as assessments of the effectiveness of control policies. Currently, continuous GHG observations in the Los Angeles basin are limited to a few in situ measurements, which are shown to be sensitive to local emissions and do not represent the Los Angeles basin well. To quantify GHG emissions from the metropolitan area, which tend to have heterogeneous characteristics, it is important to perform measurements which provide both continuous temporal and spatial coverage of the domain. Here we present observations of the major greenhouse gases, CO2 and CH4, using a spectroscopic remote sensing technique from the California Laboratory for Atmospheric Remote Sensing (CLARS) at Mount Wilson, California (1.7 km elevation). A Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) deployed at the CLARS site points downward at 28 selected land surfaces in the Los Angeles basin to measure the slant column abundances of CO2, CH4, N2O, CO and O2 using reflected sunlight in the near-infrared and shortwave infrared regions. This remote sensing technique provides continuous temporal and spatial measurements in the Los Angeles basin to achieve the goal of quantifying emissions of GHGs and CO. It also serves as a test-bed for future geostationary satellite missions to measure GHGs from space such as JPL's Geostationary Carbon Process Investigation (GCPI). The path-averaged dry-air mixing ratio, XCO2 and XCH4, observed by the CLARS FTS, show significant diurnal variability that arises from emissions in the Los Angeles basin and atmospheric transport processes. High-precision data have been collected since August 2011. Here we analyze the annual and seasonal trend of the ratio XCH4:XCO2 in the Los Angeles basin observed by the CLARS FTS from

  11. Transportation Emissions: some basics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kontovas, Christos A.; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.

    2016-01-01

    transportation and especially carbon dioxide emissions are at the center stage of discussion by the world community through various international treaties, such as the Kyoto Protocol. The transportation sector also emits non-CO2 pollutants that have important effects on air quality, climate, and public health......Transportation is the backbone of international trade and a key engine driving globalization. However, there is growing concern that the Earth’s atmospheric composition is being altered by human activities, including transportation, which can lead to climate change. Air pollution from....... The main purpose of this chapter is to introduce some basic concepts that are relevant in the quest of green transportation logistics. First, we present the basics of estimating emissions from transportation activities, the current statistics and future trends, as well as the total impact of air emissions...

  12. Global trends 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2001-01-01

    The main reason for climate change is the increase in the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The main reasons for this increase are the burning of fossil fuels, certain farming practices and deforestation. The burning of fossil fuels is a major factor. The high carbon dioxide emissions per person of Australia and the USA are noted and some of the consequences of the increase in temperature are indicated. Graphs and maps highlight the world's disappearing forests, the ecological footprint of selected countries, the increase in carbon dioxide levels over the centuries, the way in which world temperatures are rising, the increase in the height of the oceans, lowest annual ozone levels and the worst countries in terms of carbon dioxide emissions

  13. Fractionation and current time trends of PCB congeners: evolvement of distributions 1950–2010 studied using a global atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Lammel

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available PCBs are ubiquitous environmental pollutants expected to decline in abiotic environmental media in response to decreasing primary emissions since the 1970s. A coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with embedded dynamic sub-models for atmospheric aerosols and the marine biogeochemistry and air-surface exchange processes with soils, vegetation and the cryosphere is used to study the transport and fate of four PCB congeners covering a range of 3–7 chlorine atoms.

    The change of the geographic distribution of the PCB mixture reflects the sources and sinks' evolvement over time. Globally, secondary emissions (re-volatilisation from surfaces are on the long term increasingly gaining importance over primary emissions. Secondary emissions are most important for the congeners with 5–6 chlorine atoms. Correspondingly, the levels of these congeners are predicted to decrease slowest. Changes in congener mixture composition (fractionation are characterized both geographically and temporally. In high latitudes enrichment of the lighter, less persistent congeners and more delayed decreasing levels in response to decreasing emissions are found. The delivery of the contaminants to high latitudes is predicted to be more efficient than previously suggested. The results suggest furthermore that the effectiveness of emission control measures may significantly vary among substances. The trends of decline of organic contaminant levels in the abiotic environmental media do not only vary with latitude (slow in high latitudes, but do also show longitudinal gradients.

  14. Global trends in significant wave height and marine wind speed from the ERA-20CM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aarnes, Ole Johan; Breivik, Øyvind

    2016-04-01

    The ERA-20CM is one of the latest additions to the ERA-series produced at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). This 10 member ensemble is generated with a version of the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), a coupled atmosphere-wave model. The model integration is run as a AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) constrained by CMIP5 recommended radiative forcing and different realizations of sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice cover (SIC) prescribed by the HadISST2 (Met Office Hadley Center). While the ERA-20CM is unable to reproduce the actual synoptic conditions, it is designed to offer a realistic statistical representation of the past climate, spanning the period 1899-2010. In this study we investigate global trends in significant wave height and marine wind speed based on ERA-20CM, using monthly mean data, upper percentiles and monthly/annual maxima. The aim of the study is to assess the quality of the trends and how these estimates are affected by different SST and SIC. Global trends are compared against corresponding estimates obtained with ERA-Interim (1979-2009), but also crosschecked against ERA-20C - an ECMWF pilot reanalysis of the 20th-century, known to most trustworthy in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Over the period 1900-2009, the 10 member ensemble yields trends mainly within +/- 5% per century. However, significant trends of opposite signs are found locally. Certain areas, like the eastern equatorial Pacific, highly affected by the El Niño Southern Oscillation, show stronger trends. In general, trends based on statistical quantities further into the tail of the distribution are found less reliable.

  15. Potential for reducing global carbon emissions from electricity production-A bench marking analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ang, B.W.; Zhou, P.; Tay, L.P. [National University of Singapore (Singapore). Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering

    2011-05-15

    We present five performance indicators for electricity generation for 129 countries using the 2005 data. These indicators, measured at the national level, are the aggregate CO{sub 2} intensity of electricity production, the efficiencies of coal, oil and gas generation and the share of electricity produced from non-fossil fuels. We conduct a study on the potential for reducing global energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions from electricity production through simple bench marking. This is performed based on the last four performance indicators and the construction of a cumulative curve for each of these indicators. It is found that global CO{sub 2} emissions from electricity production would be reduced by 19% if all these indicators are benchmarked at the 50th percentile. Not surprisingly, the emission reduction potential measured in absolute terms is the highest for large countries such as China, India, Russia and the United States. When the potential is expressed as a percentage of a country's own emissions, few of these countries appear in the top-five list. 14 refs., 8 figs., 4 tabs.

  16. Delay-induced rebounds in CO2 emissions and critical time-scales to meet global warming targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manoli, Gabriele; Katul, Gabriel G.; Marani, Marco

    2016-12-01

    While climate science debates are focused on the attainment of peak anthropogenic CO2 emissions and policy tools to reduce peak temperatures, the human-energy-climate system can hold "rebound" surprises beyond this peak. Following the second industrial revolution, global per capita CO2 emissions (cc) experienced a punctuated growth of about 100% every 60 years, mainly attributable to technological development and its global spread. A model of the human-energy-climate system capable of reproducing past punctuated dynamics shows that rebounds in global CO2 emissions emerge due to delays intrinsic to the diffusion of innovations. Such intrinsic delays in the adoption and spread of low-carbon emitting technologies, together with projected population growth, upset the warming target set by the Paris Agreement. To avoid rebounds and their negative climate effects, model calculations show that the diffusion of climate-friendly technologies must occur with lags one-order of magnitude shorter (i.e., ˜6 years) than the characteristic timescale of past punctuated growth in cc. Radically new strategies to globally implement the technological advances at unprecedented rates are needed if the current emission goals are to be achieved.

  17. A comprehensive emission inventory of multiple air pollutants from iron and steel industry in China: Temporal trends and spatial variation characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kun; Tian, Hezhong; Hua, Shenbing; Zhu, Chuanyong; Gao, Jiajia; Xue, Yifeng; Hao, Jiming; Wang, Yong; Zhou, Junrui

    2016-07-15

    China has become the largest producer of iron and steel throughout the world since 1996. However, as an energy-and-pollution intensive manufacturing sector, a detailed comprehensive emission inventory of air pollutants for iron and steel industry of China is still not available. To obtain and better understand the temporal trends and spatial variation characteristics of typical hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) emissions from iron and steel production in China, a comprehensive emission inventory of multiple air pollutants, including size segregated particulate matter (TSP/PM10/PM2.5), gaseous pollutants (SO2, NOx, CO), heavy metals (Pb, Cd, Hg, As, Cr, Ni etc.), as well as the more dangerous PCDD/Fs, is established with the unit-based annual activity, specific dynamic emission factors for the historical period of 1978-2011, and the future potential trends till to 2050 are forecasted by using scenario analysis. Our results show that emissions of gaseous pollutants and particulate matter have experienced a gradual increase tendency since 2000, while emissions of priority-controlled heavy metals (Hg, Pb, As, Cd, Cr, and Ni) have exhibited a short-term fluctuation during the period of 1990 to 2005. With regard to the spatial distribution of HAPs emissions in base year 2011, Bohai economic circle is identified as the top emission intensity region where iron and steel smelting plants are densely built; within iron and steel industry, blast furnaces contribute the majority of PM emissions, sinter plants account for most of gaseous pollutants and the majority of PCDD/Fs, whereas steel making processes are responsible for the majority of heavy metal emissions. Moreover, comparisons of future emission trends under three scenarios indicate that advanced technologies and integrated whole process management strategies are in great need to further diminish various hazardous air pollutants from iron and steel industry in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights

  18. Dynamical Analysis of the Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Tenreiro Machado

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Global warming is a major concern nowadays. Weather conditions are changing, and it seems that human activity is one of the main causes. In fact, since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels has increased the nonnatural emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that absorbs the infrared radiation produced by the reflection of the sunlight on the Earth’s surface, trapping the heat in the atmosphere. Global warming and the associated climate changes are being the subject of intensive research due to their major impact on social, economic, and health aspects of human life. This paper studies the global warming trend in the perspective of dynamical systems and fractional calculus, which is a new standpoint in this context. Worldwide distributed meteorological stations and temperature records for the last 100 years are analysed. It is shown that the application of Fourier transforms and power law trend lines leads to an assertive representation of the global warming dynamics and a simpler analysis of its characteristics.

  19. COMPILATION OF REGIONAL TO GLOBAL INVENTORIES OF ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    BENKOVITZ, C.M.

    2002-01-01

    The mathematical modeling of the transport and transformation of trace species in the atmosphere is one of the scientific tools currently used to assess atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climatic conditions. From the scientific but also from the management perspectives accurate inventories of emissions of the trace species at the appropriate spatial, temporal, and species resolution are required. There are two general methodologies used to estimate regional to global emissions: bottom-up and top-down (also known as inverse modeling). Bottom-up methodologies to estimate industrial emissions are based on activity data, emission factors (amount of emissions per unit activity), and for some inventories additional parameters (such as sulfur content of fuels). Generally these emissions estimates must be given finer sectoral, spatial (usually gridded), temporal, and for some inventories species resolution. Temporal and spatial resolution are obtained via the use of surrogate information, such as population, land use, traffic counts, etc. which already exists in or can directly be converted to gridded form. Speciation factors have been and are being developed to speciate inventories of NO(sub x), particulate matter, and hydrocarbons. Top-down (inverse modeling) methodologies directly invert air quality measurements in terms of poorly known but critical parameters to constrain the emissions needed to explain these measurements; values of these parameters are usually computed using atmospheric transport models. Currently there are several strong limitations of inverse modeling, but the continued evolution of top-down estimates will be facilitated by the development of denser monitoring networks and by the massive amounts of data from satellite observations

  20. Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jianbin; Zhang, Xiangdong; Zhang, Qiyi; Lin, Yanluan; Hao, Mingju; Luo, Yong; Zhao, Zongci; Yao, Yao; Chen, Xin; Wang, Lei; Nie, Suping; Yin, Yizhou; Xu, Ying; Zhang, Jiansong

    2017-12-01

    The existence and magnitude of the recently suggested global warming hiatus, or slowdown, have been strongly debated1-3. Although various physical processes4-8 have been examined to elucidate this phenomenon, the accuracy and completeness of observational data that comprise global average surface air temperature (SAT) datasets is a concern9,10. In particular, these datasets lack either complete geographic coverage or in situ observations over the Arctic, owing to the sparse observational network in this area9. As a consequence, the contribution of Arctic warming to global SAT changes may have been underestimated, leading to an uncertainty in the hiatus debate. Here, we constructed a new Arctic SAT dataset using the most recently updated global SATs2 and a drifting buoys based Arctic SAT dataset11 through employing the `data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions' method12. Our estimate of global SAT rate of increase is around 0.112 °C per decade, instead of 0.05 °C per decade from IPCC AR51, for 1998-2012. Analysis of this dataset shows that the amplified Arctic warming over the past decade has significantly contributed to a continual global warming trend, rather than a hiatus or slowdown.

  1. Global Scale Attribution of Anthropogenic and Natural Dust Sources and their Emission Rates Based on MODIS Deep Blue Aerosol Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginoux, Paul; Prospero, Joseph M.; Gill, Thomas E.; Hsu, N. Christina; Zhao, Ming

    2012-01-01

    Our understanding of the global dust cycle is limited by a dearth of information about dust sources, especially small-scale features which could account for a large fraction of global emissions. Here we present a global-scale high-resolution (0.1 deg) mapping of sources based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue estimates of dust optical depth in conjunction with other data sets including land use. We ascribe dust sources to natural and anthropogenic (primarily agricultural) origins, calculate their respective contributions to emissions, and extensively compare these products against literature. Natural dust sources globally account for 75% of emissions; anthropogenic sources account for 25%. North Africa accounts for 55% of global dust emissions with only 8% being anthropogenic, mostly from the Sahel. Elsewhere, anthropogenic dust emissions can be much higher (75% in Australia). Hydrologic dust sources (e.g., ephemeral water bodies) account for 31% worldwide; 15% of them are natural while 85% are anthropogenic. Globally, 20% of emissions are from vegetated surfaces, primarily desert shrublands and agricultural lands. Since anthropogenic dust sources are associated with land use and ephemeral water bodies, both in turn linked to the hydrological cycle, their emissions are affected by climate variability. Such changes in dust emissions can impact climate, air quality, and human health. Improved dust emission estimates will require a better mapping of threshold wind velocities, vegetation dynamics, and surface conditions (soil moisture and land use) especially in the sensitive regions identified here, as well as improved ability to address small-scale convective processes producing dust via cold pool (haboob) events frequent in monsoon regimes.

  2. Global-scale attribution of anthropogenic and natural dust sources and their emission rates based on MODIS Deep Blue aerosol products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginoux, Paul; Prospero, Joseph M.; Gill, Thomas E.; Hsu, N. Christina; Zhao, Ming

    2012-09-01

    Our understanding of the global dust cycle is limited by a dearth of information about dust sources, especially small-scale features which could account for a large fraction of global emissions. Here we present a global-scale high-resolution (0.1°) mapping of sources based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue estimates of dust optical depth in conjunction with other data sets including land use. We ascribe dust sources to natural and anthropogenic (primarily agricultural) origins, calculate their respective contributions to emissions, and extensively compare these products against literature. Natural dust sources globally account for 75% of emissions; anthropogenic sources account for 25%. North Africa accounts for 55% of global dust emissions with only 8% being anthropogenic, mostly from the Sahel. Elsewhere, anthropogenic dust emissions can be much higher (75% in Australia). Hydrologic dust sources (e.g., ephemeral water bodies) account for 31% worldwide; 15% of them are natural while 85% are anthropogenic. Globally, 20% of emissions are from vegetated surfaces, primarily desert shrublands and agricultural lands. Since anthropogenic dust sources are associated with land use and ephemeral water bodies, both in turn linked to the hydrological cycle, their emissions are affected by climate variability. Such changes in dust emissions can impact climate, air quality, and human health. Improved dust emission estimates will require a better mapping of threshold wind velocities, vegetation dynamics, and surface conditions (soil moisture and land use) especially in the sensitive regions identified here, as well as improved ability to address small-scale convective processes producing dust via cold pool (haboob) events frequent in monsoon regimes.

  3. Sources, sinks, trends, and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciborowski, P.

    1989-01-01

    Each year the emission of greenhouse gases commits the earth to a warming of 0.02 to 0.06 degrees C. Many of these gases are released as by-products of fossil fuel combustion. The remainder are produced as a result of forest clearing in the tropics or agriculture or industrial activities. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is the most important greenhouse gas, contributing about half of global heating. In addition, there are what are known as the non-CO 2 greenhouse gases: methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), freon CFC-12 (CF 2 Cl 2 ), freon CFC-11 (CF 3 Cl), and tropospheric ozone (O 3 ). Carbon monoxide and the nitrogen gases, increase the amount of methane and ozone in the troposphere. There are also about 15 or 20 other greenhouse gases of lesser importance. This paper reviews the sources of some of these greenhouse gases, analyzes trends in their emissions, and suggests means through which greenhouse gas emissions can be limited

  4. Analytical Retrieval of Global Land Surface Emissivity Maps at AMSR-E passive microwave frequencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norouzi, H.; Temimi, M.; Khanbilvardi, R.

    2009-12-01

    Land emissivity is a crucial boundary condition in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) modeling. Land emissivity is also a key indicator of land surface and subsurface properties. The objective of this study, supported by NOAA-NESDIS, is to develop global land emissivity maps using AMSR-E passive microwave measurements along with several ancillary data. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) database has been used to obtain several inputs for the proposed approach such as land surface temperature, cloud mask and atmosphere profile. The Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) has been used to estimate upwelling and downwelling atmospheric contributions. Although it is well known that correction of the atmospheric effect on brightness temperature is required at higher frequencies (over 19 GHz), our preliminary results have shown that a correction at 10.7 GHz is also necessary over specific areas. The proposed approach is based on three main steps. First, all necessary data have been collected and processed. Second, a global cloud free composite of AMSR-E data and corresponding ancillary images is created. Finally, monthly composting of emissivity maps has been performed. AMSR-E frequencies at 6.9, 10.7, 18.7, 36.5 and 89.0 GHz have been used to retrieve the emissivity. Water vapor information obtained from ISCCP (TOVS data) was used to calculate upwelling, downwelling temperatures and atmospheric transmission in order to assess the consistency of those derived from the CRTM model. The frequent land surface temperature (LST) determination (8 times a day) in the ISCCP database has allowed us to assess the diurnal cycle effect on emissivity retrieval. Differences in magnitude and phase between thermal temperature and low frequencies microwave brightness temperature have been noticed. These differences seem to vary in space and time. They also depend on soil texture and thermal inertia. The proposed methodology accounts for these factors and

  5. Alternative U.S. biofuel mandates and global GHG emissions: The role of land use change, crop management and yield growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosnier, A.; Havlík, P.; Valin, H.; Baker, J.; Murray, B.; Feng, S.; Obersteiner, M.; McCarl, B.A.; Rose, S.K.; Schneider, U.A.

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the impacts of the U.S. renewable fuel standard (RFS2) and several alternative biofuel policy designs on global GHG emissions from land use change and agriculture over the 2010–2030 horizon. Analysis of the scenarios relies on GLOBIOM, a global, multi-sectoral economic model based on a detailed representation of land use. Our results reveal that RFS2 would substantially increase the portion of agricultural land needed for biofuel feedstock production. U.S. exports of most agricultural products would decrease as long as the biofuel target would increase leading to higher land conversion and nitrogen use globally. In fact, higher levels of the mandate mean lower net emissions within the U.S. but when the emissions from the rest of the world are considered, the US biofuel policy results in almost no change on GHG emissions for the RFS2 level and higher global GHG emissions for higher levels of the mandate or higher share of conventional corn-ethanol in the mandate. Finally, we show that if the projected crop productivity would be lower globally, the imbalance between domestic U.S. GHG savings and additional GHG emissions in the rest of the world would increase, thus deteriorating the net global impact of U.S. biofuel policies. - Highlights: ► We model the impact of the U.S. renewable fuel standard (RFS2). ► RFS2 would require more agricultural land and nitrogen globally. ► Increasing the mandates reduce GHG emissions within the U.S. ► Increasing the mandates increase GHG emissions in the rest of the world. ► Total GHG emissions increase with higher levels of mandate; higher share of corn-ethanol; lower productivity growth

  6. Global epidemiological trends and variations in the burden of gallbladder cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Are, Chandrakanth; Ahmad, Humera; Ravipati, Advaitaa; Croo, Darren; Clarey, Dillon; Smith, Lynette; Price, Ray R; Butte, Jean M; Gupta, Sameer; Chaturvedi, Arun; Chowdhury, Sanjib

    2017-04-01

    The aim of this study is to describe the trends and variations in the global burden of gallbladder cancer (GBC) with an emphasis on geographic variations and female gender. Data (2012-2030) relating to GBC was extracted from GLOBOCAN 2012 database and analyzed. The results of our study document a rising global burden of GBC with geographic and gender variations. The highest burden was noted in the WPRO region (based on WHO regions), Asia (based on continents) and India, Chile, and China (based on countries). The less developed regions of the world account for the majority of the global burden of GBC. The geographic variations are also present within individual countries such as in India and Chile. Females are afflicted at a much higher rate with GBC and this predilection is exaggerated in countries with higher incidence such as India and Chile. In females, people of certain ethnic groups and lower socio-economic standing are at a higher risk. Our study demonstrates a rising global burden of GBC with some specific data on geographic and gender-based variations which can be used to develop strategies at the global as well as the high-risk individual country level. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Problems in the Relationship between CO2 Emissions and Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferenc Kovács

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available In the analysis of environmental conditions and impacts, the viewpoint that greenhouse gases, primarily anthropogenic (industrial, human carbon dioxide, play a determining role in the change of global temperatures, ( the increase experienced in the last one and a half decade, has been given widespread publicity recently. Coal-fired power plants are the first to blame for the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the last two centuries. The study indicates possibilities to increase the efficiency of coal-fired power plants, which would involve a considerable reduction in CO2 emissions with an identical production volume of electrical energy. On the basis of the analysis of the amount of fossil fuels used, the amount of CO2 emissions and changes in the concentrations of atmospheric CO2, it is shown that no correlation can be proved between the factors investigated and changes in global temperatures.

  8. First space-based derivation of the global atmospheric methanol emission fluxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Stavrakou

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available This study provides improved methanol emission estimates on the global scale, in particular for the largest methanol source, the terrestrial biosphere, and for biomass burning. To this purpose, one complete year of spaceborne measurements of tropospheric methanol columns retrieved for the first time by the thermal infrared sensor IASI aboard the MetOp satellite are compared with distributions calculated by the IMAGESv2 global chemistry-transport model. Two model simulations are performed using a priori biogenic methanol emissions either from the new MEGANv2.1 emission model, which is fully described in this work and is based on net ecosystem flux measurements, or from a previous parameterization based on net primary production by Jacob et al. (2005. A significantly better model performance in terms of both amplitude and seasonality is achieved through the use of MEGANv2.1 in most world regions, with respect to IASI data, and to surface- and air-based methanol measurements, even though important discrepancies over several regions are still present. As a second step of this study, we combine the MEGANv2.1 and the IASI column abundances over continents in an inverse modelling scheme based on the adjoint of the IMAGESv2 model to generate an improved global methanol emission source. The global optimized source totals 187 Tg yr−1 with a contribution of 100 Tg yr−1 from plants, only slightly lower than the a priori MEGANv2.1 value of 105 Tg yr−1. Large decreases with respect to the MEGANv2.1 biogenic source are inferred over Amazonia (up to 55 % and Indonesia (up to 58 %, whereas more moderate reductions are recorded in the Eastern US (20–25 % and Central Africa (25–35 %. On the other hand, the biogenic source is found to strongly increase in the arid and semi-arid regions of Central Asia (up to a factor of 5 and Western US (factor of 2, probably due to a source of methanol specific to these ecosystems which

  9. The contribution of China’s emissions to global climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bengang; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Hauglustaine, Didier; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Chen, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Laurent Zhaoxin; Li, Yue; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Junfeng; Peng, Shushi; Shen, Zehao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Rong; Wang, Tao; Yin, Guodong; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhou, Feng

    2016-03-01

    Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on “common but differentiated responsibilities” reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry-climate model and a chemistry and transport model to quantify China’s present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ± 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China’s relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ± 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ± 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China’s strongest contributions are 0.16 ± 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, -0.11 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ± 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China’s eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon.

  10. Trends in anthropogenic mercury emissions estimated for South Africa during 2000-2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masekoameng, K.E.; Leaner, J.; Dabrowski, J. [CSIR, Pretoria (South Africa)

    2010-08-15

    Recent studies suggest an increase in mercury (Hg) emissions to the global environment, particularly as a result of anthropogenic activities. This has prompted many countries to complete Hg emission inventories, based on country-specific Hg sources. In this study, information on annual coal consumption and Hg-containing commodities produced in South Africa, was used to estimate Hg emissions during 2000-2006. Based on the information, the UNEP toolkit was used to estimate the amount of Hg released to air and general waste from each activity; using South Africa specific and toolkit based emission factors. In both atmospheric and solid waste releases, coal-fired power plants were estimated to be the largest contributors of Hg emissions, viz. 27.1 to 38.9 tonnes y{sup -1} in air, and 5.8 to 7.4 tonnes y{sup -1} in waste. Cement production was estimated to be the second largest atmospheric Hg emission contributor (2.2-3.9 tonnes y{sup -1}), while coal gasification was estimated to be the second largest Hg contributor in terms of general waste releases (2.9-4.2 tonnes y{sup -1}). Overall, there was an increase in total atmospheric Hg emissions from all activities, estimated at ca. 34 tonnes in 2000, to 50 tonnes in 2006, with some fluctuations between the years. Similarly, the total Hg emissions released to general waste was estimated to be 9 tonnes in 2000, with an increase to 12 tonnes in 2006.

  11. A Global Assessment of Long-Term Greening and Browning Trends in Pasture Lands Using the GIMMS LAI3g Dataset

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin I. Cook

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Pasture ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to land degradation due to the high risk of human disturbance (e.g., overgrazing, burning, etc., especially when compared with natural ecosystems (non-pasture, non-cultivated where direct human impacts are minimal. Using maximum annual leaf area index (LAImax as a proxy for standing biomass and peak annual aboveground productivity, we analyze greening and browning trends in pasture areas from 1982–2008. Inter-annual variability in pasture productivity is strongly controlled by precipitation (positive correlation and, to a lesser extent, temperature (negative correlation. Linear temporal trends are significant in 23% of pasture cells, with the vast majority of these areas showing positive LAImax trends. Spatially extensive productivity declines are only found in a few regions, most notably central Asia, southwest North America, and southeast Australia. Statistically removing the influence of precipitation reduces LAImax trends by only 13%, suggesting that precipitation trends are only a minor contributor to long-term greening and browning of pasture lands. No significant global relationship was found between LAImax and pasture intensity, although the magnitude of trends did vary between cells classified as natural versus pasture. In the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, the median rate of greening in pasture cells is significantly higher than for cells dominated by natural vegetation. In the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics, conversely, greening of natural areas is 2–4 times the magnitude of greening in pasture areas. This analysis presents one of the first global assessments of greening and browning trends in global pasture lands, including a comparison with vegetation trends in regions dominated by natural ecosystems. Our results suggest that degradation of pasture lands is not a globally widespread phenomenon and, consistent with much of the terrestrial biosphere, there have been widespread

  12. How consistent are global long-term satellite LAI products in terms of interannual variability and trend?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, C.; Ryu, Y.; Fang, H.

    2016-12-01

    Proper usage of global satellite LAI products requires comprehensive evaluation. To address this issue, the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Land Product Validation (LPV) subgroup proposed a four-stage validation hierarchy. During the past decade, great efforts have been made following this validation framework, mainly focused on absolute magnitude, seasonal trajectory, and spatial pattern of those global satellite LAI products. However, interannual variability and trends of global satellite LAI products have been investigated marginally. Targeting on this gap, we made an intercomparison between seven global satellite LAI datasets, including four short-term ones: MODIS C5, MODIS C6, GEOV1, MERIS, and three long-term products ones: LAI3g, GLASS, and GLOBMAP. We calculated global annual LAI time series for each dataset, among which we found substantial differences. During the overlapped period (2003 - 2011), MODIS C5, GLASS and GLOBMAP have positive correlation (r > 0.6) between each other, while MODIS C6, GEOV1, MERIS, and LAI3g are highly consistent (r > 0.7) in interannual variations. However, the previous three datasets show negative trends, all of which use MODIS C5 reflectance data, whereas the latter four show positive trends, using MODIS C6, SPOT/VGT, ENVISAT/MERIS, and NOAA/AVHRR, respectively. During the pre-MODIS era (1982 - 1999), the three AVHRR-based datasets (LAI3g, GLASS and GLOBMAP) agree well (r > 0.7), yet all of them show oscillation related with NOAA platform changes. In addition, both GLASS and GLOBMAP show clear cut-points around 2000 when they move from AVHRR to MODIS. Such inconsistency is also visible for GEOV1, which uses SPOT-4 and SPOT-5 before and after 2002. We further investigate the map-to-map deviations among these products. This study highlights that continuous sensor calibration and cross calibration are essential to obtain reliable global LAI time series.

  13. Trends in Global Gender Inequality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorius, Shawn F.; Firebaugh, Glenn

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates trends in gender inequality throughout the world. Using data encompassing a large majority of the world's population, we examine trends in recent decades for key indicators of gender inequality in education, mortality, political representation and economic activity. We find that gender inequality is declining in virtually…

  14. Biomass use, production, feed efficiencies, and greenhouse gas emissions from global livestock systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrero, Mario; Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Notenbaert, An; Rufino, Mariana C; Thornton, Philip K; Blümmel, Michael; Weiss, Franz; Grace, Delia; Obersteiner, Michael

    2013-12-24

    We present a unique, biologically consistent, spatially disaggregated global livestock dataset containing information on biomass use, production, feed efficiency, excretion, and greenhouse gas emissions for 28 regions, 8 livestock production systems, 4 animal species (cattle, small ruminants, pigs, and poultry), and 3 livestock products (milk, meat, and eggs). The dataset contains over 50 new global maps containing high-resolution information for understanding the multiple roles (biophysical, economic, social) that livestock can play in different parts of the world. The dataset highlights: (i) feed efficiency as a key driver of productivity, resource use, and greenhouse gas emission intensities, with vast differences between production systems and animal products; (ii) the importance of grasslands as a global resource, supplying almost 50% of biomass for animals while continuing to be at the epicentre of land conversion processes; and (iii) the importance of mixed crop–livestock systems, producing the greater part of animal production (over 60%) in both the developed and the developing world. These data provide critical information for developing targeted, sustainable solutions for the livestock sector and its widely ranging contribution to the global food system.

  15. Variations and Trends in Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, R.; Curtis, S.; Huffman, G.; Bolvin, D.; Nelkin, E.

    2001-05-01

    This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. The relation of global (and tropical) total precipitation and ENSO events is quantified with no significant signal when land and ocean are combined. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 2000 the tropics have pattern of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe

  16. Estimating global "blue carbon" emissions from conversion and degradation of vegetated coastal ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linwood Pendleton

    Full Text Available Recent attention has focused on the high rates of annual carbon sequestration in vegetated coastal ecosystems--marshes, mangroves, and seagrasses--that may be lost with habitat destruction ('conversion'. Relatively unappreciated, however, is that conversion of these coastal ecosystems also impacts very large pools of previously-sequestered carbon. Residing mostly in sediments, this 'blue carbon' can be released to the atmosphere when these ecosystems are converted or degraded. Here we provide the first global estimates of this impact and evaluate its economic implications. Combining the best available data on global area, land-use conversion rates, and near-surface carbon stocks in each of the three ecosystems, using an uncertainty-propagation approach, we estimate that 0.15-1.02 Pg (billion tons of carbon dioxide are being released annually, several times higher than previous estimates that account only for lost sequestration. These emissions are equivalent to 3-19% of those from deforestation globally, and result in economic damages of $US 6-42 billion annually. The largest sources of uncertainty in these estimates stems from limited certitude in global area and rates of land-use conversion, but research is also needed on the fates of ecosystem carbon upon conversion. Currently, carbon emissions from the conversion of vegetated coastal ecosystems are not included in emissions accounting or carbon market protocols, but this analysis suggests they may be disproportionally important to both. Although the relevant science supporting these initial estimates will need to be refined in coming years, it is clear that policies encouraging the sustainable management of coastal ecosystems could significantly reduce carbon emissions from the land-use sector, in addition to sustaining the well-recognized ecosystem services of coastal habitats.

  17. A model for estimating seasonal trends of ammonia emission from cattle manure applied to grassland in the Netherlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huijsmans, J. F. M.; Vermeulen, G. D.; Hol, J. M. G.; Goedhart, P. W.

    2018-01-01

    Field data on ammonia emission after liquid cattle manure ('slurry') application to grassland were statistically analysed to reveal the effect of manure and field characteristics and of weather conditions in eight consecutive periods after manure application. Logistic regression models, modelling the emission expressed as a percentage of the ammonia still present at the start of each period as the response variable, were developed separately for broadcast spreading, narrow band application (trailing shoe) and shallow injection. Wind speed, temperature, soil type, total ammoniacal nitrogen (TAN) content and dry matter content of the manure, application rate and grass height were selected as significant explanatory variables. Their effects differed for each application method and among periods. Temperature and wind speed were generally the most important drivers for emission. The fitted regression models were used to reveal seasonal trends in NH3 emission employing historical meteorological data for the years 1991-2014. The overall average emission was higher in early and midsummer than in early spring and late summer. This seasonal trend was most pronounced for broadcast spreading followed by narrow band application, and was almost absent for shallow injection. However, due to the large variation in weather conditions, emission on a particular day in early spring can be higher than on a particular day in summer. The analysis further revealed that, in a specific scenario and depending on the application technique, emission could be reduced with 20-30% by restricting manure application to favourable days, i.e. with weather conditions with minimal emission levels.

  18. Evaluation and application of multi-decadal visibility data for trend analysis of atmospheric haze

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Li

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available There are few multi-decadal observations of atmospheric aerosols worldwide. This study applies global hourly visibility (Vis observations at more than 3000 stations to investigate historical trends in atmospheric haze over 1945–1996 for the US, and over 1973–2013 for Europe and eastern Asia. A comprehensive data screening and processing framework is developed and applied to minimize uncertainties and construct monthly statistics of inverse visibility (1/Vis. This data processing includes removal of relatively clean cases with high uncertainty, and change point detection to identify and separate methodological discontinuities such as the introduction of instrumentation. Although the relation between 1/Vis and atmospheric extinction coefficient (bext varies across different stations, spatially coherent trends of the screened 1/Vis data exhibit consistency with the temporal evolution of collocated aerosol measurements, including the bext trend of −2.4 % yr−1 (95 % CI: −3.7, −1.1 % yr−1 vs. 1/Vis trend of −1.6 % yr−1 (95 % CI: −2.4, −0.8 % yr−1 over the US for 1989–1996, and the fine aerosol mass (PM2.5 trend of −5.8 % yr−1 (95 % CI: −7.8, −4.2 % yr−1 vs. 1/Vis trend of −3.4 % yr−1 (95 % CI: −4.4, −2.4 % yr−1 over Europe for 2006–2013. Regional 1/Vis and Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR sulfur dioxide (SO2 emissions are significantly correlated over the eastern US for 1970–1995 (r = 0.73, over Europe for 1973–2008 (r ∼ 0.9 and over China for 1973–2008 (r ∼ 0.9. Consistent "reversal points" from increasing to decreasing in SO2 emission data are also captured by the regional 1/Vis time series (e.g., late 1970s for the eastern US, early 1980s for western Europe, late 1980s for eastern Europe, and mid 2000s for China. The consistency of 1/Vis trends with other in situ measurements and emission data demonstrates promise in applying these quality assured 1/Vis data

  19. Geographical spread of global emissions: Within-country inequalities are large and increasing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sauter, Caspar; Grether, Jean-Marie; Mathys, Nicole A.

    2016-01-01

    In spite of the extensive literature on greenhouse gas emission inequalities at the world-wide level, most of the evidence so far has been based on country-level data. However, the within-country dimension matters for both the implementation and the policy formation of climate policies. As a preliminary step towards a better understanding of within-country inequalities, this paper measures their extent for the two major greenhouse gases, CO_2 and CH_4, over the 1970–2008 period. Using Theil-index decompositions, we show that within-country inequalities account for the bulk of global inequality, and tend to increase over the sample period, in contrast with diminishing between-country inequalities. Including differences across sectors reveals that between-sector inequalities matter more than between-country inequalities, and between-sector inequalities become the dominant source of global inequality at the end of the sample period in the CO_2 case. Finally, estimated social tensions arising from the disconnection between emissions and future damages turn out to be increasing as soon as within-country disparities are taken into account. These orders of magnitude should be kept in mind while discussing the efficiency and fairness of alternative paths in combating global warming. - Highlights: • We estimate global spatial CO_2 and CH_4 inequality using grid data for 1970–2008. • Overall spatial emission inequality is constant for CO_2 and increasing for CH_4. • Within-country inequality is rising and constitutes the main bulk of overall inequality. • An important part of within country inequality is due to differences among sectors. • The gap between emitters and victims is rising within countries.

  20. Global NOx emission estimates derived from an assimilation of OMI tropospheric NO2 columns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Sudo

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available A data assimilation system has been developed to estimate global nitrogen oxides (NOx emissions using OMI tropospheric NO2 columns (DOMINO product and a global chemical transport model (CTM, the Chemical Atmospheric GCM for Study of Atmospheric Environment and Radiative Forcing (CHASER. The data assimilation system, based on an ensemble Kalman filter approach, was applied to optimize daily NOx emissions with a horizontal resolution of 2.8° during the years 2005 and 2006. The background error covariance estimated from the ensemble CTM forecasts explicitly represents non-direct relationships between the emissions and tropospheric columns caused by atmospheric transport and chemical processes. In comparison to the a priori emissions based on bottom-up inventories, the optimized emissions were higher over eastern China, the eastern United States, southern Africa, and central-western Europe, suggesting that the anthropogenic emissions are mostly underestimated in the inventories. In addition, the seasonality of the estimated emissions differed from that of the a priori emission over several biomass burning regions, with a large increase over Southeast Asia in April and over South America in October. The data assimilation results were validated against independent data: SCIAMACHY tropospheric NO2 columns and vertical NO2 profiles obtained from aircraft and lidar measurements. The emission correction greatly improved the agreement between the simulated and observed NO2 fields; this implies that the data assimilation system efficiently derives NOx emissions from concentration observations. We also demonstrated that biases in the satellite retrieval and model settings used in the data assimilation largely affect the magnitude of estimated emissions. These dependences should be carefully considered for better understanding NOx sources from top-down approaches.

  1. Seasonal and diurnal variability of N{sub 2}O emissions from a full-scale municipal wastewater treatment plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daelman, Matthijs R.J., E-mail: m.r.j.daelman@tudelft.nl [Department of Biotechnology, Delft University of Technology, Julianalaan 67, 2628 BC Delft (Netherlands); Department of Biosystems engineering, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Gent (Belgium); Voorthuizen, Ellen M. van [Royal HaskoningDHV, P.O. Box 151, 6500AD Nijmegen (Netherlands); Dongen, Udo G.J.M. van [Department of Biotechnology, Delft University of Technology, Julianalaan 67, 2628 BC Delft (Netherlands); Volcke, Eveline I.P. [Department of Biosystems engineering, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Gent (Belgium); Loosdrecht, Mark C.M. van [Department of Biotechnology, Delft University of Technology, Julianalaan 67, 2628 BC Delft (Netherlands)

    2015-12-01

    During nitrogen removal in conventional activated sludge processes, nitrous oxide can be emitted. With a global warming potential of 298 CO{sub 2}-equivalents it is an important greenhouse gas that affects the sustainability of wastewater treatment. The present study reports nitrous oxide emission data from a 16 month monitoring campaign on a full-scale municipal wastewater treatment. The emission demonstrated a pronounced diurnal and seasonal variability. This variability was compared with the variability of a number of process variables that are commonly available on a municipal wastewater treatment plant. On a seasonal timescale, the occurrence of peaks in the nitrite concentration correlated strongly with the emission. The diurnal trend of the emission coincided with the diurnal trend of the nitrite and nitrate concentrations in the tank, suggesting that suboptimal oxygen concentrations may induce the production of nitrous oxide during both nitrification and denitrification. This study documents an unprecedented dataset that could serve as a reference for further research. - Highlights: • Unique dataset of long-term nitrous oxide emission from activated sludge tanks • Emission exhibited pronounced diurnal variability, superimposed on seasonal trend • Seasonal nitrous oxide emission trend correlated with daily nitrite peaks • Emission’s diurnal trend suggests suboptimal oxygen concentrations as cause.

  2. Chinese CO2 emission flows have reversed since the global financial crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mi, Zhifu; Meng, Jing; Guan, Dabo; Shan, Yuli; Song, Malin; Wei, Yi-Ming; Liu, Zhu; Hubacek, Klaus

    2017-11-23

    This study seeks to estimate the carbon implications of recent changes in China's economic development patterns and role in global trade in the post-financial-crisis era. We utilised the latest socioeconomic datasets to compile China's 2012 multiregional input-output (MRIO) table. Environmentally extended input-output analysis and structural decomposition analysis (SDA) were applied to investigate the driving forces behind changes in CO 2 emissions embodied in China's domestic and foreign trade from 2007 to 2012. Here we show that emission flow patterns have changed greatly in both domestic and foreign trade since the financial crisis. Some economically less developed regions, such as Southwest China, have shifted from being a net emission exporter to being a net emission importer. In terms of foreign trade, emissions embodied in China's exports declined from 2007 to 2012 mainly due to changes in production structure and efficiency gains, while developing countries became the major destination of China's export emissions.

  3. The FAOSTAT database of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tubiello, Francesco N; Salvatore, Mirella; Rossi, Simone; Ferrara, Alessandro; Fitton, Nuala; Smith, Pete

    2013-01-01

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture, including crop and livestock production, forestry and associated land use changes, are responsible for a significant fraction of anthropogenic emissions, up to 30% according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Yet while emissions from fossil fuels are updated yearly and by multiple sources—including national-level statistics from the International Energy Agency (IEA)—no comparable efforts for reporting global statistics for agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) emissions exist: the latest complete assessment was the 2007 IPCC report, based on 2005 emission data. This gap is critical for several reasons. First, potentially large climate funding could be linked in coming decades to more precise estimates of emissions and mitigation potentials. For many developing countries, and especially the least developed ones, this requires improved assessments of AFOLU emissions. Second, growth in global emissions from fossil fuels has outpaced that from AFOLU during every decade of the period 1961–2010, so the relative contribution of the latter to total climate forcing has diminished over time, with a need for regular updates. We present results from a new GHG database developed at FAO, providing a complete and coherent time series of emission statistics over a reference period 1961–2010, at country level, based on FAOSTAT activity data and IPCC Tier 1 methodology. We discuss results at global and regional level, focusing on trends in the agriculture sector and net deforestation. Our results complement those available from the IPCC, extending trend analysis to a longer historical period and, critically, beyond 2005 to more recent years. In particular, from 2000 to 2010, we find that agricultural emissions increased by 1.1% annually, reaching 4.6 Gt CO 2 yr −1 in 2010 (up to 5.4–5.8 Gt CO 2 yr −1 with emissions from biomass burning and organic soils included). Over the same decade

  4. Global volcanic aerosol properties derived from emissions, 1990-2014, using CESM1(WACCM): VOLCANIC AEROSOLS DERIVED FROM EMISSIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mills, Michael J. [Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Schmidt, Anja [School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds UK; Easter, Richard [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Solomon, Susan [Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge Massachusetts USA; Kinnison, Douglas E. [Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Ghan, Steven J. [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Neely, Ryan R. [School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds UK; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds UK; Marsh, Daniel R. [Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Conley, Andrew [Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Bardeen, Charles G. [Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Gettelman, Andrew [Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA

    2016-03-06

    Accurate representation of global stratospheric aerosol properties from volcanic and non-volcanic sulfur emissions is key to understanding the cooling effects and ozone-loss enhancements of recent volcanic activity. Attribution of climate and ozone variability to volcanic activity is of particular interest in relation to the post-2000 slowing in the apparent rate of global average temperature increases, and variable recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole. We have developed a climatology of global aerosol properties from 1990 to 2014 calculated based on volcanic and non-volcanic emissions of sulfur sources. We have complied a database of volcanic SO2 emissions and plume altitudes for eruptions between 1990 and 2014, and a new prognostic capability for simulating stratospheric sulfate aerosols in version 5 of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, a component of the Community Earth System Model. Our climatology shows remarkable agreement with ground-based lidar observations of stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD), and with in situ measurements of aerosol surface area density (SAD). These properties are key parameters in calculating the radiative and chemical effects of stratospheric aerosols. Our SAOD climatology represents a significant improvement over satellite-based analyses, which ignore aerosol extinction below 15 km, a region that can contain the vast majority of stratospheric aerosol extinction at mid- and high-latitudes. Our SAD climatology significantly improves on that provided for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, which misses 60% of the SAD measured in situ. Our climatology of aerosol properties is publicly available on the Earth System Grid.

  5. Global carbon budget 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Quere, C.; Moriarty, R.; Jones, S.D.; Boden, T.A.; Peters, G.P.; Andrew, R.M.; Andres, R.J.; Ciais, P.; Bopp, L.; Maignan, F.; Viovy, N.

    2014-01-01

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO 2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO 2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990's, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO 2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO 2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO 2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as ±1, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003-2012), EFF was 8.6±0.4 GtC yr -1 , ELUC 0.9±0.5 GtC yr -1 , GATM 4.3±0

  6. Near-real-time global biomass burning emissions product from geostationary satellite constellation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaoyang; Kondragunta, Shobha; Ram, Jessica; Schmidt, Christopher; Huang, Ho-Chun

    2012-07-01

    Near-real-time estimates of biomass burning emissions are crucial for air quality monitoring and forecasting. We present here the first near-real-time global biomass burning emission product from geostationary satellites (GBBEP-Geo) produced from satellite-derived fire radiative power (FRP) for individual fire pixels. Specifically, the FRP is retrieved using WF_ABBA V65 (wildfire automated biomass burning algorithm) from a network of multiple geostationary satellites. The network consists of two Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) which are operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Meteosat second-generation satellites (Meteosat-09) operated by the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, and the Multifunctional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency. These satellites observe wildfires at an interval of 15-30 min. Because of the impacts from sensor saturation, cloud cover, and background surface, the FRP values are generally not continuously observed. The missing observations are simulated by combining the available instantaneous FRP observations within a day and a set of representative climatological diurnal patterns of FRP for various ecosystems. Finally, the simulated diurnal variation in FRP is applied to quantify biomass combustion and emissions in individual fire pixels with a latency of 1 day. By analyzing global patterns in hourly biomass burning emissions in 2010, we find that peak fire season varied greatly and that annual wildfires burned 1.33 × 1012 kg dry mass, released 1.27 × 1010 kg of PM2.5 (particulate mass for particles with diameter forest and savanna fires in Africa, South America, and North America. Evaluation of emission result reveals that the GBBEP-Geo estimates are comparable with other FRP-derived estimates in Africa, while the results are generally smaller than most of the other global products that were derived from burned

  7. Global CO_2-energy emissions in 2007. China becomes the largest emitter along with the United States - June 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    China becomes the largest emitter along with the United States. Contents: 1990-2007 evolution (key figures of Yearly average evolutions); Global CO_2-energy emissions in 2007: 27,3 GtCO_2; Global CO_2-energy emissions have increased by 3,2% in 2007, largely driven by China. Since 1990, China has more than doubled its CO_2-energy emissions, to reach the same emission level as the USA in 2007. Two very contrasting tendencies appear since 1990: stabilization of emissions in Annex B countries, boom in China and India. Since 1990, more than half of CO_2-energy emissions growth is (logically) due to coal. (authors)

  8. Methane emissions from global wetlands: An assessment of the uncertainty associated with various wetland extent data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Bowen; Tian, Hanqin; Lu, Chaoqun; Chen, Guangsheng; Pan, Shufen; Anderson, Christopher; Poulter, Benjamin

    2017-09-01

    A wide range of estimates on global wetland methane (CH4) fluxes has been reported during the recent two decades. This gives rise to urgent needs to clarify and identify the uncertainty sources, and conclude a reconciled estimate for global CH4 fluxes from wetlands. Most estimates by using bottom-up approach rely on wetland data sets, but these data sets show largely inconsistent in terms of both wetland extent and spatiotemporal distribution. A quantitative assessment of uncertainties associated with these discrepancies among wetland data sets has not been well investigated yet. By comparing the five widely used global wetland data sets (GISS, GLWD, Kaplan, GIEMS and SWAMPS-GLWD), it this study, we found large differences in the wetland extent, ranging from 5.3 to 10.2 million km2, as well as their spatial and temporal distributions among the five data sets. These discrepancies in wetland data sets resulted in large bias in model-estimated global wetland CH4 emissions as simulated by using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM). The model simulations indicated that the mean global wetland CH4 emissions during 2000-2007 were 177.2 ± 49.7 Tg CH4 yr-1, based on the five different data sets. The tropical regions contributed the largest portion of estimated CH4 emissions from global wetlands, but also had the largest discrepancy. Among six continents, the largest uncertainty was found in South America. Thus, the improved estimates of wetland extent and CH4 emissions in the tropical regions and South America would be a critical step toward an accurate estimate of global CH4 emissions. This uncertainty analysis also reveals an important need for our scientific community to generate a global scale wetland data set with higher spatial resolution and shorter time interval, by integrating multiple sources of field and satellite data with modeling approaches, for cross-scale extrapolation.

  9. Global trends in milk quality: implications for the irish dairy industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    More SJ

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The quality of Irish agricultural product will become increasingly important with the ongoing liberalisation of international trade. This paper presents a review of the global and Irish dairy industries; considers the impact of milk quality on farm profitability, food processing and human health, examines global trends in quality; and explores several models that are successfully being used to tackle milk quality concerns. There is a growing global demand for dairy products, fuelled in part by growing consumer wealth in developing countries. Global dairy trade represents only 6.2% of global production and demand currently outstrips supply. Although the Irish dairy industry is small by global standards, approximately 85% of annual production is exported annually. It is also the world's largest producer of powdered infant formula. Milk quality has an impact on human health, milk processing and on-farm profitability. Somatic cell count (SCC is a key measure of milk quality, with a SCC not exceeding 400,000 cells/ml (the EU milk quality standard generally accepted as the international export standard. There have been ongoing improvements in milk quality among both established and emerging international suppliers. A number of countries have developed successful industry-led models to tackle milk quality concerns. Based on international experiences, it is likely that problems with effective translation of knowledge to practice, rather than incomplete knowledge per se, are the more important constraints to national progress towards improved milk quality.

  10. Trends in global approvals of biotech crops (1992-2014).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aldemita, Rhodora R; Reaño, Ian Mari E; Solis, Renando O; Hautea, Randy A

    2015-01-01

    With the increasing number of genetically modified (GM) events, traits, and crops that are developed to benefit the global population, approval of these technologies for food, feed, cultivation and import in each country may vary depending on needs, demand and trade interest. ISAAA established a GMO Approval Database to document global approvals of biotech crops. GM event name, crops, traits, developer, year of approval for cultivation, food/feed, import, and relevant dossiers were sourced from credible government regulatory websites and biosafety clearinghouses. This paper investigates the trends in GM approvals for food, feed and cultivation based on the number of approving countries, GM crops, events, and traits in the last 23 y (1992-2014), rationale for approval, factors influencing approvals, and their implications in GM crop adoption. Results show that in 2014, there was an accumulative increase in the number of countries granting approvals at 29 (79% developing countries) for commercial cultivation and 31 (70% developing countries) for food and 19 (80% developing developing) for feed; 2012 had the highest number of approving countries and cultivation approvals; 2011 had the highest number of country approvals for feed, and 2014 for food approvals. Herbicide tolerance trait had the highest events approved, followed by insect tolerance traits. Approvals for food product quality increased in the second decade. Maize had the highest number of events approved (single and stacked traits), and stacked traits product gradually increased which is already 30% of the total trait approvals. These results may indicate understanding and acceptance of countries to enhance regulatory capability to be able to benefit from GM crop commercialization. Hence, the paper provided information on the trends on the growth of the GM crop industry in the last 23 y which may be vital in predicting future GM crops and traits.

  11. Acid emissions monitoring needs in ceramic tile industry: challenges derived from new policy trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celades, Irina; Gomar, Salvador; Romero, Fernando; Chauhan, Amisha; Delpech, Bertrand; Jouhara, Hussam

    2017-11-01

    The emission of acid compounds during the manufacture of ceramic tiles is strongly related to the presence of precursors in the raw materials and/or fuels used, with some exceptions such as the production of thermal NOX. The stages with the potential to produce significant emissions of these compounds have been identified as the suspension spray drying and tile firing stages. The monitoring of emission levels of acid pollutants in these stages has turned in a great importance issue from a regulatory and industrial aspect. The DREAM project (https://www.spire2030.eu/dream) will tackle the regulation of acidic emissions focusing in the firing stage. The initial stages of the project have made it possible to identify the design requirements for the monitoring system. This will allow the control of acid pollutants emissions and other key parameters such as pressure, flow, temperature and humidity. One of the tasks developed has been the review and compilation of current emissions monitoring systems detailing technical specifications such as: position (in situ or extractive), measurement principle and frequency. The future policy trends in air pollution are encouraging the continuous monitoring across the European industry. The present document assesses the advantages regarding environmental impact control, highlighting the main challenges for the ceramic tile industry.

  12. Lived experience of economic and political trends related to globalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cushon, Jennifer A; Muhajarine, Nazeem; Labonte, Ronald

    2010-01-01

    A multi-method case study examined how the economic and political processes of globalization have influenced the determinants of health among low-income children in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada. This paper presents the results from the qualitative interview component of the case study. The purpose of the interviews was to uncover the lived experience of low-income families and their children in Saskatoon with regards to political and economic trends related to globalization, an important addition to the usual globalization and health research that relies primarily on cross-country regressions in which the personal impacts remain hidden. In-depth phenomenological interviews with 26 low-income parents of young children (aged zero to five) who were residents of Saskatoon. A combination of volunteer and criterion sampling was used. Interview questions were open-ended and based upon an analytical framework. Analysis proceeded through immersion in the data, a process of open coding, and finally through a process of selective coding. The larger case study and interviews indicate that globalization has largely not been benefiting low-income parents with young children. Low-income families with young children were struggling to survive, despite the tremendous economic growth occurring in Saskatchewan and Saskatoon at the time of the interviews. This often led to participants expressing a sense of helplessness, despair, isolation, and/or anger. Respondents' experiences suggest that globalization-related changes in social conditions and public policies and programs have great potential to negatively affect family health through either psychosocial effects in individuals and/or decreased levels of social cohesion in the community.

  13. Photosynthesis-dependent isoprene emission from leaf to planet in a global carbon-chemistry-climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, N.; Harper, K.; Zheng, Y.; Kiang, N. Y.; Aleinov, I.; Arneth, A.; Schurgers, G.; Amelynck, C.; Goldstein, A.; Guenther, A.; Heinesch, B.; Hewitt, C. N.; Karl, T.; Laffineur, Q.; Langford, B.; McKinney, K. A.; Misztal, P.; Potosnak, M.; Rinne, J.; Pressley, S.; Schoon, N.; Serça, D.

    2013-10-01

    We describe the implementation of a biochemical model of isoprene emission that depends on the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis into the Farquhar-Ball-Berry leaf model of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance that is embedded within a global chemistry-climate simulation framework. The isoprene production is calculated as a function of electron transport-limited photosynthesis, intercellular and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, and canopy temperature. The vegetation biophysics module computes the photosynthetic uptake of carbon dioxide coupled with the transpiration of water vapor and the isoprene emission rate at the 30 min physical integration time step of the global chemistry-climate model. In the model, the rate of carbon assimilation provides the dominant control on isoprene emission variability over canopy temperature. A control simulation representative of the present-day climatic state that uses 8 plant functional types (PFTs), prescribed phenology and generic PFT-specific isoprene emission potentials (fraction of electrons available for isoprene synthesis) reproduces 50% of the variability across different ecosystems and seasons in a global database of 28 measured campaign-average fluxes. Compared to time-varying isoprene flux measurements at 9 select sites, the model authentically captures the observed variability in the 30 min average diurnal cycle (R2 = 64-96%) and simulates the flux magnitude to within a factor of 2. The control run yields a global isoprene source strength of 451 TgC yr-1 that increases by 30% in the artificial absence of plant water stress and by 55% for potential natural vegetation.

  14. Photosynthesis-dependent Isoprene Emission from Leaf to Planet in a Global Carbon-chemistry-climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, N.; Harper, K.; Zeng, Y.; Kiang, N. Y.; Alienov, I.; Arneth, A.; Schurgers, G.; Amelynck, C.; Goldstein, A.; Guenther, A.; hide

    2013-01-01

    We describe the implementation of a biochemical model of isoprene emission that depends on the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis into the FarquharBallBerry leaf model of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance that is embedded within a global chemistry-climate simulation framework. The isoprene production is calculated as a function of electron transport-limited photosynthesis, intercellular and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, and canopy temperature. The vegetation biophysics module computes the photosynthetic uptake of carbon dioxide coupled with the transpiration of water vapor and the isoprene emission rate at the 30 min physical integration time step of the global chemistry-climate model. In the model, the rate of carbon assimilation provides the dominant control on isoprene emission variability over canopy temperature. A control simulation representative of the present-day climatic state that uses 8 plant functional types (PFTs), prescribed phenology and generic PFT-specific isoprene emission potentials (fraction of electrons available for isoprene synthesis) reproduces 50 of the variability across different ecosystems and seasons in a global database of 28 measured campaign-average fluxes. Compared to time-varying isoprene flux measurements at 9 select sites, the model authentically captures the observed variability in the 30 min average diurnal cycle (R2 6496) and simulates the flux magnitude to within a factor of 2. The control run yields a global isoprene source strength of 451 TgC yr1 that increases by 30 in the artificial absence of plant water stress and by 55 for potential natural vegetation.

  15. Photosynthesis-dependent isoprene emission from leaf to planet in a global carbon-chemistry-climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Unger, N.; Harper, K.; Zheng, Y.; Kiang, N. Y.; Aleinov, I.; Arneth, Almut; Schurgers, G.; Amelynck, C.; Goldstein, Allen H.; Guenther, Alex B.; Heinesch, B.; Hewitt, C. N.; Karl, T.; Laffineur, Q.; Langford, B.; McKinney, Karena A.; Misztal, P.; Potosnak, M.; Rinne, J.; Pressley, S.; Schoon, N.; Serca, D.

    2013-10-22

    We describe the implementation of a biochemical model of isoprene emission that depends on the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis into the Farquhar/Ball- Berry leaf model of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance that is embedded within a global chemistry-climate simulation framework. The isoprene production is calculated as a function of electron transport-limited photosynthesis, intercellular carbon dioxide concentration, and canopy temperature. The vegetation biophysics module computes the photosynthetic uptake of carbon dioxide coupled with the transpiration of water vapor and the isoprene emission rate at the 30 min physical integration time step of the global chemistry-climate model. In the model, the rate of carbon assimilation provides the dominant control on isoprene emission variability over canopy temperature. A control simulation representative of the present day climatic state that uses plant functional types (PFTs), prescribed phenology and generic PFT-specific isoprene emission potentials (fraction of electrons available for isoprene synthesis) reproduces 50% of the variability across different ecosystems and seasons in a global database of measured campaign-average fluxes. Compared to time-varying isoprene flux measurements at select sites, the model authentically captures the observed variability in the 30 min average diurnal cycle (R2 = 64-96 %) and simulates the flux magnitude to within a factor of 2. The control run yields a global isoprene source strength of 451 TgC yr-1 that increases by 30% in the artificial absence of plant water stress and by 55% for potential natural vegetation.

  16. Global Trends and Development Prospects for Oil and the Oil Products Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Dorozhkina

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the important issue of the development of the global market of oil and oil products. It offers an overview of how this market was formed and its current status, classification, location and potential of countries in the oil and oil processing business. It analyzes the Ukrainian oil products market. The article discusses the shortcomings and strategic areas for the development of Ukraine’s oil transport system. It presents an optimum method for creating integration groups in order to develop the oil processing business in Ukraine for the future. The article considers the main trends and outlines development prospects for the global oil and oil products market.

  17. Detecting and Understanding Changing Arctic Carbon Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruhwiler, L.

    2017-12-01

    Warming in the Arctic has proceeded faster than anyplace on Earth. Our current understanding of biogeochemistry suggests that we can expect feedbacks between climate and carbon in the Arctic. Changes in terrestrial fluxes of carbon can be expected as the Arctic warms, and the vast stores of organic carbon frozen in Arctic soils could be mobilized to the atmosphere, with possible significant impacts on global climate. Quantifying trends in Arctic carbon exchanges is important for policymaking because greater reductions in anthropogenic emissions may be required to meet climate goals. Observations of greenhouse gases in the Arctic and globally have been collected for several decades. Analysis of this data does not currently support significantly changed Arctic emissions of CH4, however it is difficult to detect changes in Arctic emissions because of transport from lower latitudes and large inter-annual variability. Unfortunately, current space-based remote sensing systems have limitations at Arctic latitudes. Modeling systems can help untangle the Arctic budget of greenhouse gases, but they are dependent on underlying prior fluxes, wetland distributions and global anthropogenic emissions. Also, atmospheric transport models may have significant biases and errors. For example, unrealistic near-surface stability can lead to underestimation of emissions in atmospheric inversions. We discuss our current understanding of the Arctic carbon budget from both top-down and bottom-up approaches. We show that current atmospheric inversions agree well on the CH4 budget. On the other hand, bottom-up models vary widely in their predictions of natural emissions, with some models predicting emissions too large to be accommodated by the budget implied by global observations. Large emissions from the shallow Arctic ocean are also inconsistent with atmospheric observations. We also discuss the sensitivity of the current atmospheric network to what is likely small, gradual increases in

  18. Trends of the global radiation and sunshine hours in 1961-1998 and their relationships in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Rensheng; Kang Ersi; Ji Xibin; Yang Jianping; Zhang Zhihui

    2006-01-01

    Trends of the yearly global radiation E g , annual sunshine hours S, yearly precipitation P and yearly averaged air temperature T at 51 stations in 1961-1998 in China were detected, and the significance test method was the F-test. A total of 47 stations showed decreasing trend in the E g series of which 35 passed the F-test at the 5% significant level. At 42 stations, the trend of S was also decreasing, and 36 of them passed the F-test at the 5% significant level. The P series did not change largely in 1961-1998 and at 37 stations showed a positive trend, while the positive trend or reduced trend at 39 stations did not pass the F-test at the 25% significant level. The positive trend of the T series was shown at 49 stations, of which 29 passed the F-test at the 1% significant level. In the yearly scale, the empirical relationship between E g and S at any station was very low because the length of the E g series was too short. When using all the data at the used 51 stations together to simulate E g , the results were good. Using the longitude λ, latitude φ and altitude H, or/and P and T, of the used stations to adjust the parameters a and b of the Angstroem model, respectively, or just to adjust the parameter a, the results will be better. The parameter b of the Angstroem model was little affected by the geographical position of the used stations. At last, a simple equation is recommended to use for simulation of the yearly global radiation in China

  19. Food, Paper, Wood, or Energy? Global Trends and Future Swedish Forest Use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Westholm

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a futures study of international forest trends. The study, produced as part of the Swedish Future Forest program, focuses on global changes of importance for future Swedish forest use. It is based on previous international research, policy documents, and 24 interviews with selected key experts and/or actors related to the forest sector, and its findings will provide a basis for future research priorities. The forest sector, here defined as the economic, social, and cultural contributions to life and human welfare derived from forest and forest-based activities, faces major change. Four areas stand out as particularly important: changing energy systems, emerging international climate policies, changing governance systems, and shifting global land use systems. We argue that global developments are, and will be, important for future Swedish forest use. The forest sector is in transition and forest-, energy, climate- and global land use issues are likely to become increasingly intertwined. Therefore, the “forest sector” must be disembedded and approached as an open system in interplay with other systems.

  20. Emissions associated with meeting the future global wheat demand: A case study of UK production under climate change constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Röder, Mirjam; Thornley, Patricia; Campbell, Grant; Bows-Larkin, Alice

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Conflicts between adapting to climate change, food security and reducing emissions. • Climate change likely to limit wheat production in the southern hemisphere. • Climate change yield benefits marginally increase emissions per unit of product. • Improved yield will result in higher total production emissions. • Production-based inventories discourage an increase in production. - Abstract: Climate change, population growth and socio-structural changes will make meeting future food demands extremely challenging. As wheat is a globally traded food commodity central to the food security of many nations, this paper uses it as an example to explore the impact of climate change on global food supply and quantify the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Published data on projected wheat production is used to analyse how global production can be increased to match projected demand. The results show that the largest projected wheat demand increases are in areas most likely to suffer severe climate change impacts, but that global demand could be met if northern hemisphere producers exploit climate change benefits to increase production and narrow their yield gaps. Life cycle assessment of different climate change scenarios shows that in the case of one of the most important wheat producers (the UK) it may be possible to improve yields with an increase of only 0.6% in the emission intensity per unit of wheat produced in a 2 °C scenario. However, UK production would need to rise substantially, increasing total UK wheat production emissions by 26%. This demonstrates how national emission inventories and associated targets do not incentivise minimisation of global greenhouse gas emissions while meeting increased food demands, highlighting a triad of challenges: meeting the rising demand for food, adapting to climate change and reducing emissions

  1. Spatial-Temporal Variations of Embodied Carbon Emission in Global Trade Flows: 41 Economies and 35 Sectors

    OpenAIRE

    Jing Tian; Hua Liao; Ce Wang

    2014-01-01

    The spatial-temporal variations of embodied carbon emissions in international trade at global scope are still unclear. This paper studies the variations of outflows and inflows of embodied carbon emissions at 35-disaggregated sectors level of 41 countries and regions, and an integrated world input-output model is employed. It also examines what would happen if there were not international trade flows in China, USA and Finland, the representatives of three different levels of the global balanc...

  2. Estimating source-attributable health impacts of ambient fine particulate matter exposure: global premature mortality from surface transportation emissions in 2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chambliss, S E; Zeinali, M; Minjares, R; Silva, R; West, J J

    2014-01-01

    Exposure to ambient fine particular matter (PM 2.5 ) was responsible for 3.2 million premature deaths in 2010 and is among the top ten leading risk factors for early death. Surface transportation is a significant global source of PM 2.5 emissions and a target for new actions. The objective of this study is to estimate the global and national health burden of ambient PM 2.5 exposure attributable to surface transportation emissions. This share of health burden is called the transportation attributable fraction (TAF), and is assumed equal to the proportional decrease in modeled ambient particulate matter concentrations when surface transportation emissions are removed. National population-weighted TAFs for 190 countries are modeled for 2005 using the MOZART-4 global chemical transport model. Changes in annual average concentration of PM 2.5 at 0.5 × 0.67 degree horizontal resolution are based on a global emissions inventory and removal of all surface transportation emissions. Global population-weighted average TAF was 8.5 percent or 1.75 μg m −3 in 2005. Approximately 242 000 annual premature deaths were attributable to surface transportation emissions, dominated by China, the United States, the European Union and India. This application of TAF allows future Global Burden of Disease studies to estimate the sector-specific burden of ambient PM 2.5 exposure. Additional research is needed to capture intraurban variations in emissions and exposure, and to broaden the range of health effects considered, including the effects of other pollutants. (letter)

  3. Global Energy Transitions and the Challenge of Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riahi, K.

    2008-01-01

    Global emissions of greenhouse-gases have increased markedly as a result of human activities since pre-industrial times. This increase in emissions has lead to unequivocal global warming, which is evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. Reducing the risk of irreversible climate impacts requires thus the mitigation of global GHG emissions aiming at the long-term stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations. Achieving this goal translates into the need of reducing emissions to virtually zero over long time-frames. Yet international agreement on a long-term climate policy target remains a distant prospect, due to both scientific uncertainty and political disagreement on the appropriate balance between mitigation costs and reduced risks of dangerous impacts. At the same time, growing emissions of greenhouse gases continue to increase the amount of climate change we are committed to over the long term. Over the next few decades, these growing emissions may make some potentially desirable long term goals unattainable. Recent analysis conducted at IIASA indicates the need of major energy transitions over the next few decades. For example, staying below the target suggested by the European Union of 2 C warming (with just a 50% likelihood) will require the massive deployment of zero-carbon energy by 2050, and a tippling of the contribution of zero-carbon energy globally to more than 60% by that time. Although there are large uncertainties with respect to the deployment of individual future technologies, there is strong evidence that no single mitigation measure alone would be sufficient for achieving the stabilization of GHG concentrations at low levels. A wide portfolio of technologies across all GHG-intensive sectors is needed for cost-effective emissions reductions. The bulk of these emissions reductions would need to come from the energy sector, with

  4. Biomass use, production, feed efficiencies, and greenhouse gas emissions from global livestock systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrero, Mario; Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Notenbaert, An; Rufino, Mariana C.; Thornton, Philip K.; Blümmel, Michael; Weiss, Franz; Grace, Delia; Obersteiner, Michael

    2013-01-01

    We present a unique, biologically consistent, spatially disaggregated global livestock dataset containing information on biomass use, production, feed efficiency, excretion, and greenhouse gas emissions for 28 regions, 8 livestock production systems, 4 animal species (cattle, small ruminants, pigs, and poultry), and 3 livestock products (milk, meat, and eggs). The dataset contains over 50 new global maps containing high-resolution information for understanding the multiple roles (biophysical, economic, social) that livestock can play in different parts of the world. The dataset highlights: (i) feed efficiency as a key driver of productivity, resource use, and greenhouse gas emission intensities, with vast differences between production systems and animal products; (ii) the importance of grasslands as a global resource, supplying almost 50% of biomass for animals while continuing to be at the epicentre of land conversion processes; and (iii) the importance of mixed crop–livestock systems, producing the greater part of animal production (over 60%) in both the developed and the developing world. These data provide critical information for developing targeted, sustainable solutions for the livestock sector and its widely ranging contribution to the global food system. PMID:24344273

  5. Evaluation of the FEERv1.0 Global Top-Down Biomass Burning Emissions Inventory over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellison, L.; Ichoku, C. M.

    2014-12-01

    With the advent of the Fire Energetics and Emissions Research (FEER) global top-down biomass burning emissions product from NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, a subsequent effort is going on to analyze and evaluate some of the main (particulate and gaseous) constituents of this emissions inventory against other inventories of biomass burning emissions over the African continent. There is consistent and continual burning during the dry season in NSSA of many small slash-and-burn fires that, though may be relatively small fires individually, collectively contribute 20-25% of the global total carbon emissions from biomass burning. As a top-down method of estimating biomass-burning emissions, FEERv1.0 is able to yield higher and more realistic emissions than previously obtainable using bottom-up methods. Results of such comparisons performed in detail over Africa will be discussed in this presentation. This effort is carried out in conjunction with a NASA-funded interdisciplinary research project investigating the effects of biomass burning on the regional climate system in Northern Sub-Saharan Africa (NSSA). Essentially, that project aims to determine how fires may have affected the severe droughts that plagued the NSSA region in recent history. Therefore, it is imperative that the biomass burning emissions input data over Africa be as accurate as possible in order to obtain a confident understanding of their interactions and feedbacks with the hydrological cycle in NSSA.

  6. Incorrectly Interpreting the Carbon Mass Balance Technique Leads to Biased Emissions Estimates from Global Vegetation Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surawski, N. C.; Sullivan, A. L.; Roxburgh, S. H.; Meyer, M.; Polglase, P. J.

    2016-12-01

    Vegetation fires are a complex phenomenon and have a range of global impacts including influences on climate. Even though fire is a necessary disturbance for the maintenance of some ecosystems, a range of anthropogenically deleterious consequences are associated with it, such as damage to assets and infrastructure, loss of life, as well as degradation to air quality leading to negative impacts on human health. Estimating carbon emissions from fire relies on a carbon mass balance technique which has evolved with two different interpretations in the fire emissions community. Databases reporting global fire emissions estimates use an approach based on `consumed biomass' which is an approximation to the biogeochemically correct `burnt carbon' approach. Disagreement between the two methods occurs because the `consumed biomass' accounting technique assumes that all burnt carbon is volatilized and emitted. By undertaking a global review of the fraction of burnt carbon emitted to the atmosphere, we show that the `consumed biomass' accounting approach overestimates global carbon emissions by 4.0%, or 100 Teragrams, annually. The required correction is significant and represents 9% of the net global forest carbon sink estimated annually. To correctly partition burnt carbon between that emitted to the atmosphere and that remaining as a post-fire residue requires the post-burn carbon content to be estimated, which is quite often not undertaken in atmospheric emissions studies. To broaden our understanding of ecosystem carbon fluxes, it is recommended that the change in carbon content associated with burnt residues be accounted for. Apart from correctly partitioning burnt carbon between the emitted and residue pools, it enables an accounting approach which can assess the efficacy of fire management operations targeted at sequestering carbon from fire. These findings are particularly relevant for the second commitment period for the Kyoto protocol, since improved landscape fire

  7. Emissions of carbon tetrachloride from Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graziosi, Francesco; Arduini, Jgor; Bonasoni, Paolo; Furlani, Francesco; Giostra, Umberto; Manning, Alistair J.; McCulloch, Archie; O'Doherty, Simon; Simmonds, Peter G.; Reimann, Stefan; Vollmer, Martin K.; Maione, Michela

    2016-10-01

    Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) is a long-lived radiatively active compound with the ability to destroy stratospheric ozone. Due to its inclusion in the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (MP), the last two decades have seen a sharp decrease in its large-scale emissive use with a consequent decline in its atmospheric mole fractions. However, the MP restrictions do not apply to the use of carbon tetrachloride as feedstock for the production of other chemicals, implying the risk of fugitive emissions from the industry sector. The occurrence of such unintended emissions is suggested by a significant discrepancy between global emissions as derived from reported production and feedstock usage (bottom-up emissions), and those based on atmospheric observations (top-down emissions). In order to better constrain the atmospheric budget of carbon tetrachloride, several studies based on a combination of atmospheric observations and inverse modelling have been conducted in recent years in various regions of the world. This study is focused on the European scale and based on long-term high-frequency observations at three European sites, combined with a Bayesian inversion methodology. We estimated that average European emissions for 2006-2014 were 2.2 (± 0.8) Gg yr-1, with an average decreasing trend of 6.9 % per year. Our analysis identified France as the main source of emissions over the whole study period, with an average contribution to total European emissions of approximately 26 %. The inversion was also able to allow the localisation of emission "hot spots" in the domain, with major source areas in southern France, central England (UK) and Benelux (Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg), where most industrial-scale production of basic organic chemicals is located. According to our results, European emissions correspond, on average, to 4.0 % of global emissions for 2006-2012. Together with other regional studies, our results allow a better constraint

  8. A research on the effect of global trends in Turkish kitchen furniture sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ersin Uçar

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Through survey results, this study evaluated global trends’ effects on Turkish kitchen furniture production. The level of knowledge and difficulties of catching up with and implementing developmental trends in the Turkish kitchen furniture sector has been seen as having a structure equivalent to world standards because the level of material and technological development has been determined by four criteria: consumer demand, housing plans, technology inadequacy, and material inadequacy. According to the results, findings in this framework, consumer demand was most influential (45.4% in capturing and implementing enterprises’ trends. Evaluation results on kitchen furniture projects implemented by Turkish enterprises within the last 5 years showed that they mostly worked with models with one-lid views in cabinet-door applications (41.6%. As a result, world trends reflect the direct influence of Turkish kitchen furniture manufacturers on cabinet-door models and color preferences for kitchen units.

  9. Are Emissions of Restricted Halocarbons in the USA and Canada Still Globally Significant?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurst, D. F.; Romashkin, P. A.; Hall, B. D.; Elkins, J. W.; Lin, J. C.; Gerbig, C.; Daube, B. C.; Wofsy, S. C.

    2004-12-01

    The global manufacture of halocarbons regulated by the Montreal Protocol has dropped substantially in response to the January 1, 1996, production phase-out deadline (1994 for halons) for developed (Article 5) countries like the United States and Canada. Contemporary emissions of these ozone-depleting substances (ODS) emanate from ongoing production in developing countries and releases of banked halocarbons world-wide. ODS emissions in developing nations can be appraised from reported production figures, but not so for developed nations where recent manufacture is negligible. Emissions in the United States and Canada are increasingly difficult to estimate because of limited information about bank sizes and release rates in the post-production era. In addition, regional- or national-scale emission estimates should no longer be derived wholly from localized measurements because of the potentially patchy spatial distributions of modern emissions. We estimate ODS emissions in the USA and Canada from >1000 simultaneous, in situ measurements each of CO and six restricted halocarbons (CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, methyl chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, and halon-1211) in and above the planetary boundary layer during the 2003 CO2 Budget and Regional Airborne - North America (COBRA-NA 2003) study. The data obtained during 87 flight hours are geographically extensive (>30,000 km) including two 11,000 km flight circuits across both countries. More than 50 pollution "events" with statistically significant ODS:CO emission ratios were sampled, and for each event we have determined a flux footprint using the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model. The model also calculates footprint-weighted average population densities and CO fluxes which we convert to footprint-weighted average ODS fluxes using the measured ODS:CO emission ratios. Statistically robust relationships between footprint-averaged ODS fluxes and population densities for several ODS indicate that

  10. The effect of trade between China and the UK on national and global carbon dioxide emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, You; Hewitt, C.N.

    2008-01-01

    We estimate the amount of carbon dioxide embodied in bi-lateral trade between the UK and China in 2004. Developing and applying the method of Shui and Harriss [2006. The role of CO 2 embodiment in US-China trade. Energy Policy 34, 4063-4068], the most recently available data on trade and CO 2 emissions have been updated and adjusted to calculate the CO 2 emissions embodied in the commodities traded between China and the UK. It was found that through trade with China, the UK reduced its CO 2 emissions by approximately 11% in 2004, compared with a non-trade scenario in which the same type and volume of goods are produced in the UK. In addition, due to the greater carbon-intensity and relatively less efficient production processes of Chinese industry, China-UK trade resulted in an additional 117 Mt of CO 2 to global CO 2 emissions in the same one year period, compared with a non-trade scenario in which the same type and volume of goods are produced in the UK. This represents an additional 19% to the reported national CO 2 emissions of the UK (555 Mt/y in 2004) and 0.4% of global emissions. These findings suggest that, through international trade, very significant environmental impacts can be shifted from one country to another, and that international trade can (but does not necessarily) result in globally increased greenhouse gas emissions. These results are additional to the environmental consequences of transporting goods, which are not robustly quantified here. (author)

  11. Trends in the specific carbon dioxide emissions of the german fuel mix; Entwicklung der spezifischen Kohlendioxid-Emissionen des deutschen Strommix

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Machat, Marcus; Werner, Kathrin

    2007-04-15

    The specific emission factor of the German fuel mix is calculated from the direct CO2 emissions of electric power generation and from the net electric power available for end use consumption. The emission factor was reduced between 1990 and 2005, owing to higher efficiencies of modernized power plants and to a bigger share of renewable energy sources. The brochure, published by the Federal Environmental Office, presents trends and diagrams.

  12. 6.1 Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    In Austria, greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) have increased by about 10 % between 1990 and 2001. This means that already in 2001 the emissions reached the level projected with current measures for 2010. Thus Austria is far from complying with the 13 % reduction required under the Kyoto Protocol, meaning that GHG emissions will have to be reduce annually by 1.4 million tons of CO 2 -equivalents to fulfill its protocol obligation. It is shown that 2001 GHG emissions had increased by 9.6 % since the base year 1990, the main reason for this increase is the growing use of fossil fuels and the resulting increase in CO 2 emissions. The highest growth rates can be observed in the transport sector by almost half (+ 49 %). Basically, greenhouse gas emission trends depend on a number of factors, about two thirds of them are caused by energy production, so the most important parameters affecting GHG are the trends of energy consumption, the energy mix and the following factors: population growth, economic growth, outdoor temperature and the resulting heating requirements, improvement of energy efficiency, the proportion of renewable energy sources such as electricity generation in hydroelectric power stations (which influences the need for supplementary power production in thermal power plants), the mix of fossil fuels, for example in caloric power plants (natural gas combustion produces about 40 % less CO 2 per energy unit than coal combustion), the structure and price effects of energy market liberalization, which influence the use of various fuels in electricity production and the import of electricity, world market prices for energy, structural changes in the economy and in the behavior of consumers. Changes in important driving forces and in GHG emissions, sector emissions trends and Austrian, European and global emissions projections are provided. (nevyjel)

  13. EU Action against Climate Change. EU emissions trading. An open scheme promoting global innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    The European Union is committed to global efforts to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from human activities that threaten to cause serious disruption to the world's climate. Building on the innovative mechanisms set up under the Kyoto Protocol to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) - joint implementation, the clean development mechanism and international emissions trading - the EU has developed the largest company-level scheme for trading in emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), making it the world leader in this emerging market. The emissions trading scheme started in the 25 EU Member States on 1 January 2005

  14. Methane emissions in East Asia for 2000-2011 estimated using an atmospheric Bayesian inversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, R. L.; Stohl, A.; Zhou, L. X.; Dlugokencky, E.; Fukuyama, Y.; Tohjima, Y.; Kim, S.-Y.; Lee, H.; Nisbet, E. G.; Fisher, R. E.; Lowry, D.; Weiss, R. F.; Prinn, R. G.; O'Doherty, S.; Young, D.; White, J. W. C.

    2015-05-01

    We present methane (CH4) emissions for East Asia from a Bayesian inversion of CH4 mole fraction and stable isotope (δ13C-CH4) measurements. Emissions were estimated at monthly resolution from 2000 to 2011. A posteriori, the total emission for East Asia increased from 43 ± 4 to 59 ± 4 Tg yr-1 between 2000 and 2011, owing largely to the increase in emissions from China, from 39 ± 4 to 54 ± 4 Tg yr-1, while emissions in other East Asian countries remained relatively stable. For China, South Korea, and Japan, the total emissions were smaller than the prior estimates (i.e., Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research 4.2 FT2010 for anthropogenic emissions) by an average of 29%, 20%, and 23%, respectively. For Mongolia, Taiwan, and North Korea, the total emission was less than 2 Tg yr-1 and was not significantly different from the prior. The largest reductions in emissions, compared to the prior, occurred in summer in regions important for rice agriculture suggesting that this source is overestimated in the prior. Furthermore, an analysis of the isotope data suggests that the prior underestimates emissions from landfills and ruminant animals for winter 2010 to spring 2011 (no data available for other times). The inversion also found a lower average emission trend for China, 1.2 Tg yr-1 compared to 2.8 Tg yr-1 in the prior. This trend was not constant, however, and increased significantly after 2005, up to 2.0 Tg yr-1. Overall, the changes in emissions from China explain up to 40% of the increase in global emissions in the 2000s.

  15. International trade of health services: global trends and local impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lautier, Marc

    2014-10-01

    Globalization is a key challenge facing health policy-makers. A significant dimension of this is trade in health services. Traditionally, the flow of health services exports went from North to South, with patients travelling in the opposite direction. This situation is changing and a number of papers have discussed the growth of health services exports from Southern countries in its different dimensions. Less attention has been paid to assess the real scope of this trade at the global level and its potential impact at the local level. Given the rapid development of this area, there are little empirical data. This paper therefore first built an estimate of the global size and of the growth trend of international trade in health services since 1997, which is compared with several country-based studies. The second purpose of the paper is to demonstrate the significant economic impact of this trade at the local level for the exporting country. We consider the case of health providers in the South-Mediterranean region for which the demand potential, the economic effects and the consequence for the health system are presented. These issues lead to the overall conclusion that different policy options would be appropriate, in relation to the nature of the demand. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Trends in the Global Small Satellite Ecosystem: Implications for Science Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrens, J.; Lal, B.

    2017-12-01

    Activity in the small satellite industry has increased in the recent years. New actors and nations have joined the evolving market globally in both the private and public sector. Progress in the smallsat sector has been driven, in part, by growing capabilities and falling costs of smallsats. Advancements include the miniaturization of technology for the small satellite platform, increased data processing capabilities, the ubiquitous presence of GPS enabling location and attitude determination, improvements in ground system costs and signal processing capabilities, and the deployment of inexpensive COTS parts. The emerging trends in the state of the art for smallsat technology, paired with planned smallsat constellation missions by both private and public actors, open the opportunity for new earth and remote sensing scientific endeavors. This presentation will characterize the drivers influencing the development of smallsat technology and the industry more generally. An overview will be provided for trends in the state of the art of smallsat technology, and secondary trends that influence the smallsat sector including infrastructure, demand, the satellite launch market, and the policy environment. These trends are mapped onto current and projected Earth observation needs, as identified by academic and governmental communities, to identify those that could be fulfilled by smallsats in the near and long term. A set of notional science missions that could be enabled, based on the various drivers identified, will be presented for both the near (3 years) and farther term (10 years).

  17. Globally important nitrous oxide emissions from croplands induced by freeze-thaw cycles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wagner-Riddle, Claudia; Congreves, Katelyn A.; Abalos Rodriguez, Diego; Berg, Aaron A.; Brown, Shannon E.; Ambadan, Jaison Thomas; Gao, Xiaopeng; Tenuta, Mario

    2017-01-01

    Seasonal freezing induces large thaw emissions of nitrous oxide, a trace gas that contributes to stratospheric ozone destruction and atmospheric warming. Cropland soils are by far the largest anthropogenic source of nitrous oxide. However, the global contribution of seasonal freezing to nitrous

  18. A Global Outlook to the Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the World and Emission Factors of the Thermal Power Plants in Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atimtay, Aysel T.

    2003-01-01

    World primary energy demand increases with increases in population and economic development. Within the last 25 yr, the total energy consumption has almost doubled. For the purpose of meeting this demand, fossil energy sources are used and various pollutants are generated. CO 2 is also one of these gases, which cannot be removed like other pollutants, and it causes greenhouse effect and climate change. Reducing the CO 2 emission is very important because of the environmental concerns and regulations, especially the Kyoto Protocol. This paper reviews the estimated world carbon emissions, Turkey's situation in electrical energy production, emission amounts estimated until the year 2020 and emission factors for dust, SO 2 , NO x and CO 2 . The estimated results show that CO 2 emissions from thermal power plants in Turkey will make about 0.66 % of the global CO 2 emissions in 2020

  19. High-resolution atmospheric emission inventory of the argentine energy sector. Comparison with edgar global emission database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Enrique Puliafito

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study presents a 2014 high-resolution spatially disaggregated emission inventory (0.025° × 0.025° horizontal resolution, of the main activities in the energy sector in Argentina. The sub-sectors considered are public generation of electricity, oil refineries, cement production, transport (maritime, air, rail and road, residential and commercial. The following pollutants were included: greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, ozone precursors (CO, NOx, VOC and other specific air quality indicators such as SO2, PM10, and PM2.5. This work could contribute to a better geographical allocation of the pollutant sources through census based population maps. Considering the sources of greenhouse gas emissions, the total amount is 144 Tg CO2eq, from which the transportation sector emits 57.8 Tg (40%; followed by electricity generation, with 40.9 Tg (28%; residential + commercial, with 31.24 Tg (22%; and cement and refinery production, with 14.3 Tg (10%. This inventory shows that 49% of the total emissions occur in rural areas: 31% in rural areas of medium population density, 13% in intermediate urban areas and 7% in densely populated urban areas. However, if emissions are analyzed by extension (per square km, the largest impact is observed in medium and densely populated urban areas, reaching more than 20.3 Gg per square km of greenhouse gases, 297 Mg/km2 of ozone precursors gases and 11.5 Mg/km2 of other air quality emissions. A comparison with the EDGAR global emission database shows that, although the total country emissions are similar for several sub sectors and pollutants, its spatial distribution is not applicable to Argentina. The road and residential transport emissions represented by EDGAR result in an overestimation of emissions in rural areas and an underestimation in urban areas, especially in more densely populated areas. EDGAR underestimates 60 Gg of methane emissions from road transport sector and fugitive emissions from refining

  20. Photosynthesis-dependent isoprene emission from leaf to planet in a global carbon-chemistry-climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Unger

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We describe the implementation of a biochemical model of isoprene emission that depends on the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis into the Farquhar–Ball–Berry leaf model of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance that is embedded within a global chemistry-climate simulation framework. The isoprene production is calculated as a function of electron transport-limited photosynthesis, intercellular and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, and canopy temperature. The vegetation biophysics module computes the photosynthetic uptake of carbon dioxide coupled with the transpiration of water vapor and the isoprene emission rate at the 30 min physical integration time step of the global chemistry-climate model. In the model, the rate of carbon assimilation provides the dominant control on isoprene emission variability over canopy temperature. A control simulation representative of the present-day climatic state that uses 8 plant functional types (PFTs, prescribed phenology and generic PFT-specific isoprene emission potentials (fraction of electrons available for isoprene synthesis reproduces 50% of the variability across different ecosystems and seasons in a global database of 28 measured campaign-average fluxes. Compared to time-varying isoprene flux measurements at 9 select sites, the model authentically captures the observed variability in the 30 min average diurnal cycle (R2 = 64–96% and simulates the flux magnitude to within a factor of 2. The control run yields a global isoprene source strength of 451 TgC yr−1 that increases by 30% in the artificial absence of plant water stress and by 55% for potential natural vegetation.

  1. Global Thermal Power Plants Database: Unit-Based CO2, SO2, NOX and PM2.5 Emissions in 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, D.; Qiang, Z.; Davis, S. J.

    2016-12-01

    There are more than 30,000 thermal power plants now operating worldwide, reflecting a tremendously diverse infrastructure that includes units burning oil, natural gas, coal and biomass and ranging in capacity from 1GW. Although the electricity generated by this infrastructure is vital to economic activities across the world, it also produces more CO2 and air pollution emissions than any other industry sector. Here we present a new database of global thermal power-generating units and their emissions as of 2010, GPED (Global Power Emissions Database), including the detailed unit information of installed capacity, operation year, geographic location, fuel type and control measures for more than 70000 units. In this study, we have compiled, combined, and harmonized the available underlying data related to thermal power-generating units (e.g. eGRID of USA, CPED of China and published Indian power plants database), and then analyzed the generating capacity, capacity factor, fuel type, age, location, and installed pollution-control technology in order to determine those units with disproportionately high levels of emissions. In total, this work is of great importance for improving spatial distribution of global thermal power plants emissions and exploring their environmental impacts at global scale.

  2. Long-term implications of alternative light-duty vehicle technologies for global greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kyle, Page; Kim, Son H.

    2011-01-01

    This study assesses global light-duty vehicle (LDV) transport in the upcoming century, and the implications of vehicle technology advancement and fuel-switching on greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands. Five different vehicle technology scenarios are analyzed with and without a CO 2 emissions mitigation policy using the GCAM integrated assessment model: a reference internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, an advanced internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, and three alternative fuel vehicle scenarios in which all LDVs are switched to natural gas, electricity, or hydrogen by 2050. The emissions mitigation policy is a global CO 2 emissions price pathway that achieves 450 ppmv CO 2 at the end of the century with reference vehicle technologies. The scenarios demonstrate considerable emissions mitigation potential from LDV technology; with and without emissions pricing, global CO 2 concentrations in 2095 are reduced about 10 ppmv by advanced ICEV technologies and natural gas vehicles, and 25 ppmv by electric or hydrogen vehicles. All technological advances in vehicles are important for reducing the oil demands of LDV transport and their corresponding CO 2 emissions. Among advanced and alternative vehicle technologies, electricity- and hydrogen-powered vehicles are especially valuable for reducing whole-system emissions and total primary energy. - Highlights: → Alternative-fuel LDVs reduce whole-system CO 2 emissions, even without carbon pricing. → Alternative-fuel LDVs enhance the CO 2 mitigation capacity of the transportation sector. → Electric and hydrogen vehicles reduce whole-system primary energy supporting LDV transport.

  3. Global Warming: Predicting OPEC Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Petroleum Consumption Using Neural Network and Hybrid Cuckoo Search Algorithm.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haruna Chiroma

    Full Text Available Global warming is attracting attention from policy makers due to its impacts such as floods, extreme weather, increases in temperature by 0.7°C, heat waves, storms, etc. These disasters result in loss of human life and billions of dollars in property. Global warming is believed to be caused by the emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activities including the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2 from petroleum consumption. Limitations of the previous methods of predicting CO2 emissions and lack of work on the prediction of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC CO2 emissions from petroleum consumption have motivated this research.The OPEC CO2 emissions data were collected from the Energy Information Administration. Artificial Neural Network (ANN adaptability and performance motivated its choice for this study. To improve effectiveness of the ANN, the cuckoo search algorithm was hybridised with accelerated particle swarm optimisation for training the ANN to build a model for the prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions. The proposed model predicts OPEC CO2 emissions for 3, 6, 9, 12 and 16 years with an improved accuracy and speed over the state-of-the-art methods.An accurate prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions can serve as a reference point for propagating the reorganisation of economic development in OPEC member countries with the view of reducing CO2 emissions to Kyoto benchmarks--hence, reducing global warming. The policy implications are discussed in the paper.

  4. Global Warming: Predicting OPEC Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Petroleum Consumption Using Neural Network and Hybrid Cuckoo Search Algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiroma, Haruna; Abdul-kareem, Sameem; Khan, Abdullah; Nawi, Nazri Mohd; Gital, Abdulsalam Ya'u; Shuib, Liyana; Abubakar, Adamu I; Rahman, Muhammad Zubair; Herawan, Tutut

    2015-01-01

    Global warming is attracting attention from policy makers due to its impacts such as floods, extreme weather, increases in temperature by 0.7°C, heat waves, storms, etc. These disasters result in loss of human life and billions of dollars in property. Global warming is believed to be caused by the emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activities including the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from petroleum consumption. Limitations of the previous methods of predicting CO2 emissions and lack of work on the prediction of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) CO2 emissions from petroleum consumption have motivated this research. The OPEC CO2 emissions data were collected from the Energy Information Administration. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) adaptability and performance motivated its choice for this study. To improve effectiveness of the ANN, the cuckoo search algorithm was hybridised with accelerated particle swarm optimisation for training the ANN to build a model for the prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions. The proposed model predicts OPEC CO2 emissions for 3, 6, 9, 12 and 16 years with an improved accuracy and speed over the state-of-the-art methods. An accurate prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions can serve as a reference point for propagating the reorganisation of economic development in OPEC member countries with the view of reducing CO2 emissions to Kyoto benchmarks--hence, reducing global warming. The policy implications are discussed in the paper.

  5. Vehicle emission trends and spatial distribution in Shandong province, China, from 2000 to 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Shida; Jiang, Wei; Gao, Weidong

    2016-12-01

    Vehicle emissions have become a major source of air pollution in Shandong province, which has experienced a sharp growth of vehicle numbers in recent years and now has the largest vehicle population in China. This paper combines the COPERT IV model with the vehicle age distribution to estimate the temporal trends and map the spatial distributions of vehicle emissions in Shandong province during the period ranging from 2000 to 2014. Both conventional air pollutants and greenhouse gases are included. In addition, a high-resolution vehicle emission inventory at the prefecture level is developed and mapped on a 0.05° × 0.05° grid based on road information. Our results show that the emissions of all of the conventional air pollutants have decreased to various extents over the recent past, but greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase due to the lack of effective control strategies. The total emissions of CO, NMVOC, NOX, PM10, CO2, CH4 and N2O from the Shandong vehicle fleet changed from 1734.5 Gg, 277.9 Gg, 177.0 Gg, 12.4 Gg, 19239.7 Gg, 11.3 Gg and 0.6 Gg, respectively, in 2000 to 1723.3 Gg, 234.2 Gg, 513.8 Gg, 29.5 Gg, 138,419.5 Gg, 15.3 Gg and 3.9 Gg, respectively, in 2014. Vehicle emissions were mainly concentrated in cities and became more dispersed in Shandong province between 2000 and 2014.

  6. Estimating Global “Blue Carbon” Emissions from Conversion and Degradation of Vegetated Coastal Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Brian C.; Crooks, Stephen; Jenkins, W. Aaron; Sifleet, Samantha; Craft, Christopher; Fourqurean, James W.; Kauffman, J. Boone; Marbà, Núria; Megonigal, Patrick; Pidgeon, Emily; Herr, Dorothee; Gordon, David; Baldera, Alexis

    2012-01-01

    Recent attention has focused on the high rates of annual carbon sequestration in vegetated coastal ecosystems—marshes, mangroves, and seagrasses—that may be lost with habitat destruction (‘conversion’). Relatively unappreciated, however, is that conversion of these coastal ecosystems also impacts very large pools of previously-sequestered carbon. Residing mostly in sediments, this ‘blue carbon’ can be released to the atmosphere when these ecosystems are converted or degraded. Here we provide the first global estimates of this impact and evaluate its economic implications. Combining the best available data on global area, land-use conversion rates, and near-surface carbon stocks in each of the three ecosystems, using an uncertainty-propagation approach, we estimate that 0.15–1.02 Pg (billion tons) of carbon dioxide are being released annually, several times higher than previous estimates that account only for lost sequestration. These emissions are equivalent to 3–19% of those from deforestation globally, and result in economic damages of $US 6–42 billion annually. The largest sources of uncertainty in these estimates stems from limited certitude in global area and rates of land-use conversion, but research is also needed on the fates of ecosystem carbon upon conversion. Currently, carbon emissions from the conversion of vegetated coastal ecosystems are not included in emissions accounting or carbon market protocols, but this analysis suggests they may be disproportionally important to both. Although the relevant science supporting these initial estimates will need to be refined in coming years, it is clear that policies encouraging the sustainable management of coastal ecosystems could significantly reduce carbon emissions from the land-use sector, in addition to sustaining the well-recognized ecosystem services of coastal habitats. PMID:22962585

  7. Global energy balance 2012 'What's new on the energy planet?'. Based on its 2012 data for G20 countries, Enerdata analyses the trends of the world energy demand. May 30, 2013 - Paris

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    Enerdata, an independent Research and Consultancy Firm specialized in the global energy industry and carbon market since 1991, published its annual analysis of world energy demand, based on its 2012 data for G20 countries. This report confirms several ongoing trends initiated during previous years, with acceleration for some of them. Beyond these trends, a noticeable fact is the significant variations within the power mix, particularly between gas and coal, and the growing weight of the BRICS (Brazil + Russia + India + China + South Africa). The BRICS are driving the growth of the world energy demand: In the context of quasi-stagnation of the global energy consumption (+1%), and of improving energy intensity (-1.7%), the growing share of the BRICS in the world energy balance is one of the key highlights of 2012. Indeed, their energy demand increased by 3.7% despite a sharp slowdown in consumption growth in China (4% vs. 8% in 2011). Regarding electricity demand, the BRICS catch up to the G7's level and represent 6 800 TWh. Gas and coal progress in opposite directions in the United States and in Europe: Among the G7 countries, strong counter cyclical effects are observed between gas and coal in the USA and in Europe. The development of unconventional gas in the USA has strongly reduced the use of coal in favor of gas for power generation. As a result, the overabundant U.S. coal is exported at very competitive prices, which lead European electric utilities to substitute coal by gas. This change in the power mix is particularly intense in the United Kingdom (where coal increased from 30% to 40% in the electricity mix) and in Italy (the gas reduced from 48% to 42% of the mix). It is also true in Germany, where coal was already the major fuel (increase to 47% in the mix). Weight of the BRICS + coal increase in Europe = more CO_2 emissions: At global level, these trends result in an increase in CO_2 emissions (+1.4%) higher than the energy demand (+1%). This is mainly

  8. Urban partnerships in low-carbon development: Opportunities and challenges of an emerging trend in global climate politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Beermann

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This study explores the linkages between two recent trends in global climate governance. The first trend is the growing focus on cities in the multi-level governance of climate change. Whereas international climate change negotiations often end in deadlock, many urban centers across the world are taking the lead. Industrialized cities from the Global North and increasingly cities from the emerging Southern economies are experimenting with innovative and ambitious programs to reduce their local carbon footprints. A second trend is the expan¬ding urban North-South cooperation in the area of low-carbon development. This cooperation takes various forms, such as city twinning, transnational municipal networks and trans-local development cooperation. A key target of these initiatives is to develop joint projects and exchange knowledge to foster low-carbon development pathways. This study analyzes the conditions of success and failure in selected Indo-German urban low-carbon partnerships with a particular focus on institutional arrangements. The paper presents evidence from three initiatives and argues that successful trans-local cooperation depends largely on the interplay between institutional forms and the development of social capital. Building on these findings, the paper discusses what lessons may be drawn from the emergence of urban North-South cooperation for the future development of global climate governance.

  9. Understanding the Trends of Atmospheric Methane in the Past Decade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J. S.; Logan, J. A.; McElroy, M. B.; Duncan, B. N.; Yantosca, R. M.

    2002-05-01

    Methane (CH4) is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. After steady growth that resulted in an increase in atmospheric CH4 concentration by a factor of 2.5 over the past three centuries, the growth rate slowed in the 1980s; superimposed on the recent trend is significant interannual variability. In this study, various sources of information are utilized to quantify the contributions of individual CH4 sources and sinks to the trends of CH4 in the past decade. The GEOS-CHEM global three-dimensional chemical transport model with assimilated meteorology is used to test a number of hypotheses regarding recent trends in emissions. The model is evaluated with observations from the NOAA CMDL network. The model accounts for interannual variations in meteorology and concentrations of OH radical. In the baseline simulation, emissions are scaled to yearly country-by-country socioeconomic and other data: livestock populations and rice harvest areas are taken from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization; statistics on natural gas consumption and flaring from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center are used; data on coal production from British Petroleum are used; and precipitation rate and soil temperature from NCEP reanalyses are used to calculate natural wetland emissions, the sensitivities for which are based on the results obtained by Walter et al. [2001a,b]. The absolute strength for each of the sources in the base year of 1988 is chosen so that the budget satisfies mass balance constraints for total CH4 as well as individual isotopomers while producing good agreement with 1988 observed CH4 at various sites. Preliminary results indicate that the model simulates well the horizontal and vertical distribution, seasonal cycle, and long-term trend of CH4, capturing over 70% of the variance in the observed time series between 1988 and 1998 at many sites. However, an overestimate of the growth rate in the Northern Hemisphere as well

  10. Estimates and Predictions of Methane Emissions from Wastewater in China from 2000 to 2020

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Mingxi; Zhu, Qiuan; Wang, Xiaoge; Li, Peng; Yang, Bin; Chen, Huai; Wang, Meng; Zhou, Xiaolu; Peng, Changhui

    2018-02-01

    Methane accounts for 20% of the global warming caused by greenhouse gases, and wastewater is a major anthropogenic source of methane. Based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change greenhouse gas inventory guidelines and current research findings, we calculated the amount of methane emissions from 2000 to 2014 that originated from wastewater from different provinces in China. Methane emissions from wastewater increased from 1349.01 to 3430.03 Gg from 2000 to 2014, and the mean annual increase was 167.69 Gg. The methane emissions from industrial wastewater treated by wastewater treatment plants (EIt) accounted for the highest proportion of emissions. We also estimated the future trend of industrial wastewater methane emissions using the artificial neural network model. A comparison of the emissions for the years 2020, 2010, and 2000 showed an increasing trend in methane emissions in China and a spatial transition of industrial wastewater emissions from eastern and southern regions to central and southwestern regions and from coastal regions to inland regions. These changes were caused by changes in economics, demographics, and relevant policies.

  11. Policy options for stabilizing global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lashof, D.A.; Tirpak, D.A.

    1990-12-01

    This report to congress by the US EPA explains the greenhouse effect and its influence on global climate. It outlines the trends in the greenhouse gases - their concentration history, distribution, sources and sinks and chemical and radiative properties. Climate change processes are discussed including climate feedbacks. Human activities affecting trace gases and climate are explained, followed by a chapter on the technical options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions which looks at energy services, energy supply, industry, forestry and agriculture. The future is considered, and the final chapters are concerned with policy options and international cooperation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 934 refs., 102 figs., 84 tabs

  12. Climate change impact of livestock CH4 emission in India: Global temperature change potential (GTP) and surface temperature response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumari, Shilpi; Hiloidhari, Moonmoon; Kumari, Nisha; Naik, S N; Dahiya, R P

    2018-01-01

    Two climate metrics, Global surface Temperature Change Potential (GTP) and the Absolute GTP (AGTP) are used for studying the global surface temperature impact of CH 4 emission from livestock in India. The impact on global surface temperature is estimated for 20 and 100 year time frames due to CH 4 emission. The results show that the CH 4 emission from livestock, worked out to 15.3 Tg in 2012. In terms of climate metrics GTP of livestock-related CH 4 emission in India in 2012 were 1030 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 20 ) and 62 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 100 ) at the 20 and 100 year time horizon, respectively. The study also illustrates that livestock-related CH 4 emissions in India can cause a surface temperature increase of up to 0.7mK and 0.036mK over the 20 and 100 year time periods, respectively. The surface temperature response to a year of Indian livestock emission peaks at 0.9mK in the year 2021 (9 years after the time of emission). The AGTP gives important information in terms of temperature change due to annual CH 4 emissions, which is useful when comparing policies that address multiple gases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution : an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cohen, Aaron J; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Anderson, H Ross; Frostad, Joseph; Estep, Kara; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Brunekreef, Bert|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/067548180; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Feigin, Valery; Freedman, Greg; Hubbell, Bryan; Jobling, Amelia; Kan, Haidong; Knibbs, Luke; Liu, Yang|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/411298119; Martin, Randall; Morawska, Lidia; Pope, C Arden; Shin, Hwashin; Straif, Kurt; Shaddick, Gavin; Thomas, Matthew; van Dingenen, Rita; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J L; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H

    BACKGROUND: Exposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country

  14. Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Iran, 2025

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirzaei, Maryam; Bekri, Mahmoud

    2017-01-01

    Climate change and global warming as the key human societies' threats are essentially associated with energy consumption and CO 2 emissions. A system dynamic model was developed in this study to model the energy consumption and CO 2 emission trends for Iran over 2000–2025. Energy policy factors are considered in analyzing the impact of different energy consumption factors on environmental quality. The simulation results show that the total energy consumption is predicted to reach 2150 by 2025, while that value in 2010 is 1910, which increased by 4.3% yearly. Accordingly, the total CO 2 emissions in 2025 will reach 985 million tonnes, which shows about 5% increase yearly. Furthermore, we constructed policy scenarios based on energy intensity reduction. The analysis show that CO 2 emissions will decrease by 12.14% in 2025 compared to 2010 in the scenario of 5% energy intensity reduction, and 17.8% in the 10% energy intensity reduction scenario. The results obtained in this study provide substantial awareness regarding Irans future energy and CO 2 emission outlines. - Highlights: • Creation of an energy consumption model using system dynamics. • The effect of different policies on energy consumption and emission reductions. • An ascending trend for the environmental costs caused by CO 2 emissions is observed. • An urgent need for energy saving and emission reductions in Iran.

  15. Global Energy-Economy-Environment (E3) Scenarios to 2050 and Beyond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schrattenholzer, L.

    2005-01-01

    The Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) develops policy-relevant global and world-regional energy perspectives. The basic premise of the ECS's research program is a global trend of d ecarbonization . Firstly, decarbonization includes a trend toward ever-greater efficiency, or ever less waste, in society's use of energy resources. Secondly, it includes a trend towards less carbon-intensive fossil fuels (e.g., from coal toward natural gas) and, further, to non-fossil fuels, especially renewable energy carriers. Technological change is generally regarded as one of the key drivers of sustained economic growth. Long-term energy scenarios developed at IIASA and elsewhere show that, depending on key assumptions on drivers such as population, economic growth and technological development, global energy development can be environmentally unsustainable. First, energy development might not lead to stabilizing greenhouse concentrations and might thus have significant negative impacts on the global climate. In addition, some, especially coal-intensive, scenarios might lead to levels of acid deposition at which significant damage to sensitive ecosystems is expected to occur in Europe and, even more so, in Asia. A continuation of the observed historical long-term trends of decarbonization, dematerialization, and energy efficiency improvements might therefore not be sufficient to achieve sustainable growth. Targeted technological development aiming at accelerating decarbonization, dematerialization, and/or efficiency improvement may be one of the most effective means for reconciling economic growth with global environmental objectives. This might require a step-up in investments in R and D and in the demonstration of technologies so as to stimulate both learning-by-searching and learning-by-doing. In this presentation, global E3 scenarios will be summarized in the following three groups: Non

  16. Diagnostics of the Solar Wind and Global Heliosphere with Lyman-α Emission Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provornikova, E. P.; Izmodenov, V. V.; Laming, J. M.; Strachan, L.; Wood, B. E.; Katushkina, O. A.; Ko, Y.-K.; Tun Beltran, S.; Chakrabarti, S.

    2018-02-01

    We propose to develop an instrument measuring full sky intensity maps and spectra of interplanetary Lyman-α emission to reveal the global solar wind variability and the nature of the heliosphere and the local interstellar medium.

  17. Greenhouse gas emissions and global warming potential of traditional and diversified tropical rice rotation systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, Sebastian; Janz, Baldur; Jörg, Lena; Kraus, David; Racela, Heathcliff S U; Wassmann, Reiner; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Kiese, Ralf

    2016-01-01

    Global rice agriculture will be increasingly challenged by water scarcity, while at the same time changes in demand (e.g. changes in diets or increasing demand for biofuels) will feed back on agricultural practices. These factors are changing traditional cropping patterns from double-rice cropping to the introduction of upland crops in the dry season. For a comprehensive assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) balances, we measured methane (CH4 )/nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions and agronomic parameters over 2.5 years in double-rice cropping (R-R) and paddy rice rotations diversified with either maize (R-M) or aerobic rice (R-A) in upland cultivation. Introduction of upland crops in the dry season reduced irrigation water use and CH4 emissions by 66-81% and 95-99%, respectively. Moreover, for practices including upland crops, CH4 emissions in the subsequent wet season with paddy rice were reduced by 54-60%. Although annual N2 O emissions increased two- to threefold in the diversified systems, the strong reduction in CH4 led to a significantly lower (P < 0.05) annual GWP (CH4  + N2 O) as compared to the traditional double-rice cropping system. Measurements of soil organic carbon (SOC) contents before and 3 years after the introduction of upland crop rotations indicated a SOC loss for the R-M system, while for the other systems SOC stocks were unaffected. This trend for R-M systems needs to be followed as it has significant consequences not only for the GWP balance but also with regard to soil fertility. Economic assessment showed a similar gross profit span for R-M and R-R, while gross profits for R-A were reduced as a consequence of lower productivity. Nevertheless, regarding a future increase in water scarcity, it can be expected that mixed lowland-upland systems will expand in SE Asia as water requirements were cut by more than half in both rotation systems with upland crops. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Global Air Quality and Health Co-benefits of Mitigating Near-term Climate Change Through Methane and Black Carbon Emission Controls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anenberg, Susan C.; Schwartz, Joel; Shindell, Drew Todd; Amann, Markus; Faluvegi, Gregory S.; Klimont, Zbigniew; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Pozzoli, Luca; Dingenen, Rita Van; Vignati, Elisabetta; hide

    2012-01-01

    Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC), a component of fine particulate matter (PM health benefits of 14 specific emission control measures targeting BC and methane, an ozone precursor, that were selected because of their potential to reduce the rate of climate change over the next 20-40 years. Methods: We simulated the impacts of mitigation measures on outdoor concentrations of PM2.5 and ozone using two composition-climate models, and calculated associated changes in premature PM2.5- and ozone-related deaths using epidemiologically derived concentration-response functions. Results: We estimated that, for PM2.5 and ozone, respectively, fully implementing these measures could reduce global population-weighted average surface concentrations by 23-34% and 7-17% and avoid 0.6-4.4 and 0.04-0.52 million annual premature deaths globally in 2030. More than 80% of the health benefits are estimated to occur in Asia. We estimated that BC mitigation measures would achieve approximately 98% of the deaths that would be avoided if all BC and methane mitigation measures were implemented, due to reduced BC and associated reductions of nonmethane ozone precursor and organic carbon emissions as well as stronger mortality relationships for PM2.5 relative to ozone. Although subject to large uncertainty, these estimates and conclusions are not strongly dependent on assumptions for the concentration-response function. Conclusions: In addition to climate benefits, our findings indicate that the methane and BC emission control measures would have substantial co-benefits for air quality and public health worldwide, potentially reversing trends of increasing air pollution concentrations and mortality in Africa and South, West, and Central Asia. These projected benefits are independent of carbon dioxide mitigation measures. Benefits of BC measures are underestimated because we did not account for benefits from reduced indoor exposures and because outdoor exposure estimates were limited by

  19. Mitigation potential and global health impacts from emissions pricing of food commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Wiebe, Keith; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

    2017-01-01

    The projected rise in food-related greenhouse gas emissions could seriously impede efforts to limit global warming to acceptable levels. Despite that, food production and consumption have long been excluded from climate policies, in part due to concerns about the potential impact on food security. Using a coupled agriculture and health modelling framework, we show that the global climate change mitigation potential of emissions pricing of food commodities could be substantial, and that levying greenhouse gas taxes on food commodities could, if appropriately designed, be a health-promoting climate policy in high-income countries, as well as in most low- and middle-income countries. Sparing food groups known to be beneficial for health from taxation, selectively compensating for income losses associated with tax-related price increases, and using a portion of tax revenues for health promotion are potential policy options that could help avert most of the negative health impacts experienced by vulnerable groups, whilst still promoting changes towards diets which are more environmentally sustainable.

  20. Global scenarios and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    The 21st century brings with it a number of disturbing challenges. They may even threaten to disrupt world order. Many agree the most critical and urgent challenge of all confronting human kind today is climate change. Global warming has reached a level which can trigger drastic shifts in world weather. There is convincing evidence to show that global warming is significantly attributed to mans own activities. If man is responsible for the warming of the planet, then only man can help stop global warming. Only man can reverse climate change. Climate change has the power to literally destruct the world. The adverse effects of global climate change are increasingly evident from the frequency and ferocity of natural disasters like the recent severe drought and flood in Queensland, Australia; the prolonged drought in East Africa; the destructive typhoon Nargis in Myanmar; the terrifying hurricane Katrina which brought New Orleans to its knees; the disastrous Mississippi flood and killer cyclones in USA and the out of season drought and flood in the Yangtze river basin. The list does not end there. Dr. R. K. Pachauri, Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in his lecture on 28 April 2011 at UNITEN, entitled Fukushima, Energy and Climate Change reaffirmed that the warming of the earths climate system is unequivocal. That climate change is mans common enemy is no longer in doubt. This is the reason why many see climate change as the single most important driver of the expanding global interest in green technology and a low carbon economy. (author)

  1. Increasing global crop harvest frequency: recent trends and future directions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ray, Deepak K; Foley, Jonathan A

    2013-01-01

    The world’s agricultural systems face the challenge of meeting the rising demands from population growth, changing dietary preferences, and expanding biofuel use. Previous studies have put forward strategies for meeting this growing demand by increasing global crop production, either expanding the area under cultivation or intensifying the crop yields of our existing agricultural lands. However, another possible means for increasing global crop production has received less attention: increasing the frequency of global cropland harvested each year. Historically, many of the world’s croplands were left fallow, or had failed harvests, each year, foregoing opportunities for delivering crop production. Furthermore, many regions, particularly in the tropics, may be capable of multiple harvests per year, often more than are harvested today. Here we analyze a global compilation of agricultural statistics to show how the world’s harvested cropland has changed. Between 2000 and 2011, harvested land area grew roughly 4 times faster than total standing cropland area. Using a metric of cropland harvest frequency (CHF)—the ratio of land harvested each year to the total standing cropland—and its recent trends, we identify countries that harvest their croplands more frequently, and those that have the potential to increase their cropland harvest frequency. We suggest that a possible ‘harvest gap’ may exist in many countries that represents an opportunity to increase crop production on existing agricultural lands. However, increasing the harvest frequency of existing croplands could have significant environmental and social impacts, which need careful evaluation. (letter)

  2. Why are models unable to reproduce multi-decadal trends in lower tropospheric baseline ozone levels?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, L.; Liu, J.; Mickley, L. J.; Strahan, S. E.; Steenrod, S.

    2017-12-01

    Assessments of tropospheric ozone radiative forcing rely on accurate model simulations. Parrish et al (2014) found that three chemistry-climate models (CCMs) overestimate present-day O3 mixing ratios and capture only 50% of the observed O3 increase over the last five decades at 12 baseline sites in the northern mid-latitudes, indicating large uncertainties in our understanding of the ozone trends and their implications for radiative forcing. Here we present comparisons of outputs from two chemical transport models (CTMs) - GEOS-Chem and the Global Modeling Initiative model - with O3 observations from the same sites and from the global ozonesonde network. Both CTMs are driven by reanalysis meteorological data (MERRA or MERRA2) and thus are expected to be different in atmospheric transport processes relative to those freely running CCMs. We test whether recent model developments leading to more active ozone chemistry affect the computed ozone sensitivity to perturbations in emissions. Preliminary results suggest these CTMs can reproduce present-day ozone levels but fail to capture the multi-decadal trend since 1980. Both models yield widespread overpredictions of free tropospheric ozone in the 1980s. Sensitivity studies in GEOS-Chem suggest that the model estimate of natural background ozone is too high. We discuss factors that contribute to the variability and trends of tropospheric ozone over the last 30 years, with a focus on intermodel differences in spatial resolution and in the representation of stratospheric chemistry, stratosphere-troposphere exchange, halogen chemistry, and biogenic VOC emissions and chemistry. We also discuss uncertainty in the historical emission inventories used in models, and how these affect the simulated ozone trends.

  3. Global Carbon Budget 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Canadell, J. G.; Sitch, S.; Korsbakken, J. I.; Friedlingstein, P.; Peters, G. P.; Andres, R. J.; Boden, T. A.; Houghton, R. A.; House, J. I.; Keeling, R. F.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; Bakker, D. C. E.; Barbero, L.; Bopp, L.; Chang, J.; Chevallier, F.; Chini, L. P.; Ciais, P.; Fader, M.; Feely, R. A.; Gkritzalis, T.; Harris, I.; Hauck, J.; Ilyina, T.; Jain, A. K.; Kato, E.; Kitidis, V.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Koven, C.; Landschützer, P.; Lauvset, S. K.; Lefèvre, N.; Lenton, A.; Lima, I. D.; Metzl, N.; Millero, F.; Munro, D. R.; Murata, A.; Nabel, J. E. M. S.; Nakaoka, S.; Nojiri, Y.; O'Brien, K.; Olsen, A.; Ono, T.; Pérez, F. F.; Pfeil, B.; Pierrot, D.; Poulter, B.; Rehder, G.; Rödenbeck, C.; Saito, S.; Schuster, U.; Schwinger, J.; Séférian, R.; Steinhoff, T.; Stocker, B. D.; Sutton, A. J.; Takahashi, T.; Tilbrook, B.; van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; van Heuven, S.; Vandemark, D.; Viovy, N.; Wiltshire, A.; Zaehle, S.; Zeng, N.

    2015-12-01

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global

  4. Trend patterns in global sea surface temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barbosa, S.M.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2009-01-01

    Isolating long-term trend in sea surface temperature (SST) from El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) variability is fundamental for climate studies. In the present study, trend-empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, a robust space-time method for extracting trend patterns, is applied to iso...

  5. Historical (1750-2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoesly, Rachel M.; Smith, Steven J.; Feng, Leyang; Klimont, Zbigniew; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Pitkanen, Tyler; Seibert, Jonathan J.; Vu, Linh; Andres, Robert J.; Bolt, Ryan M.; Bond, Tami C.; Dawidowski, Laura; Kholod, Nazar; Kurokawa, June-ichi; Li, Meng; Liu, Liang; Lu, Zifeng; Moura, Maria Cecilia P.; O'Rourke, Patrick R.; Zhang, Qiang

    2018-01-01

    We present a new data set of annual historical (1750-2014) anthropogenic chemically reactive gases (CO, CH4, NH3, NOx, SO2, NMVOCs), carbonaceous aerosols (black carbon - BC, and organic carbon - OC), and CO2 developed with the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS). We improve upon existing inventories with a more consistent and reproducible methodology applied to all emission species, updated emission factors, and recent estimates through 2014. The data system relies on existing energy consumption data sets and regional and country-specific inventories to produce trends over recent decades. All emission species are consistently estimated using the same activity data over all time periods. Emissions are provided on an annual basis at the level of country and sector and gridded with monthly seasonality. These estimates are comparable to, but generally slightly higher than, existing global inventories. Emissions over the most recent years are more uncertain, particularly in low- and middle-income regions where country-specific emission inventories are less available. Future work will involve refining and updating these emission estimates, estimating emissions' uncertainty, and publication of the system as open-source software.

  6. Forgotten carbon: indirect CO2 in greenhouse gas emission inventories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gillenwater, Michael

    2008-01-01

    National governments that are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are required to submit greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories accounting for the emissions and removals occurring within their geographic territories. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides inventory methodology guidance to the Parties of the UNFCCC. This methodology guidance, and national inventories based on it, omits carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the atmospheric oxidation of methane, carbon monoxide, and non-methane volatile organic compounds emissions that result from several source categories. The inclusion of this category of 'indirect' CO 2 in GHG inventories increases global anthropogenic emissions (excluding land use and forestry) between 0.5 and 0.7%. However, the effect of inclusion on aggregate UNFCCC Annex I Party GHG emissions would be to reduce the growth of total emissions, from 1990 to 2004, by 0.2% points. The effect on the GHG emissions and emission trends of individual countries varies. The paper includes a methodology for calculating these emissions and discusses uncertainties. Indirect CO 2 is equally relevant for GHG inventories at other scales, such as global, regional, organizational, and facility. Similarly, project-based methodologies, such as those used under the Clean Development Mechanism, may need revising to account for indirect CO 2

  7. Global modelling of Cryptosporidium in surface water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeulen, Lucie; Hofstra, Nynke

    2016-04-01

    Introduction Waterborne pathogens that cause diarrhoea, such as Cryptosporidium, pose a health risk all over the world. In many regions quantitative information on pathogens in surface water is unavailable. Our main objective is to model Cryptosporidium concentrations in surface waters worldwide. We present the GloWPa-Crypto model and use the model in a scenario analysis. A first exploration of global Cryptosporidium emissions to surface waters has been published by Hofstra et al. (2013). Further work has focused on modelling emissions of Cryptosporidium and Rotavirus to surface waters from human sources (Vermeulen et al 2015, Kiulia et al 2015). A global waterborne pathogen model can provide valuable insights by (1) providing quantitative information on pathogen levels in data-sparse regions, (2) identifying pathogen hotspots, (3) enabling future projections under global change scenarios and (4) supporting decision making. Material and Methods GloWPa-Crypto runs on a monthly time step and represents conditions for approximately the year 2010. The spatial resolution is a 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude x longitude grid for the world. We use livestock maps (http://livestock.geo-wiki.org/) combined with literature estimates to calculate spatially explicit livestock Cryptosporidium emissions. For human Cryptosporidium emissions, we use UN population estimates, the WHO/UNICEF JMP sanitation country data and literature estimates of wastewater treatment. We combine our emissions model with a river routing model and data from the VIC hydrological model (http://vic.readthedocs.org/en/master/) to calculate concentrations in surface water. Cryptosporidium survival during transport depends on UV radiation and water temperature. We explore pathogen emissions and concentrations in 2050 with the new Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) 1 and 3. These scenarios describe plausible future trends in demographics, economic development and the degree of global integration. Results and

  8. Quantifying global fossil-fuel CO2 emissions: from OCO-2 to optimal observing designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, X.; Lauvaux, T.; Kort, E. A.; Oda, T.; Feng, S.; Lin, J. C.; Yang, E. G.; Wu, D.; Kuze, A.; Suto, H.; Eldering, A.

    2017-12-01

    Cities house more than half of the world's population and are responsible for more than 70% of the world anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Therefore, quantifications of emissions from major cities, which are only less than a hundred intense emitting spots across the globe, should allow us to monitor changes in global fossil-fuel CO2 emissions, in an independent, objective way. Satellite platforms provide favorable temporal and spatial coverage to collect urban CO2 data to quantify the anthropogenic contributions to the global carbon budget. We present here the optimal observation design for future NASA's OCO-2 and Japanese GOSAT missions, based on real-data (i.e. OCO-2) experiments and Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE's) to address different error components in the urban CO2 budget calculation. We identify the major sources of emission uncertainties for various types of cities with different ecosystems and geographical features, such as urban plumes over flat terrains, accumulated enhancements within basins, and complex weather regimes in coastal areas. Atmospheric transport errors were characterized under various meteorological conditions using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 1-km spatial resolution, coupled to the Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC) emissions. We propose and discuss the optimized urban sampling strategies to address some difficulties from the seasonality in cloud cover and emissions, vegetation density in and around cities, and address the daytime sampling bias using prescribed diurnal cycles. These factors are combined in pseudo data experiments in which we evaluate the relative impact of uncertainties on inverse estimates of CO2 emissions for cities across latitudinal and climatological zones. We propose here several sampling strategies to minimize the uncertainties in target mode for tracking urban fossil-fuel CO2 emissions over the globe for future satellite missions, such as OCO-3 and future

  9. Climate change : enhanced : recent reductions in China's greenhouse gas emissions.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Streets, D. G.; Jiang, K.; Hu, X.; Sinton, J. E.; Zhang, X.-Q.; Xu, D.; Jacobson, M. Z.; Hansen, J. E.; Decision and Information Sciences; Energy Research Inst.; LBNL; Chinese Academy of Forestry; Stanford Univ.; NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies

    2001-11-30

    Using the most recent energy and other statistical data, we have estimated the annual trends in China's greenhouse gas emissions for the period 1990 to 2000. The authors of this Policy Forum calculate that CO2 emissions declined by 7.3% between 1996 and 2000, while CH4 emissions declined by 2.2% between 1997 and 2000. These reductions were due to a combination of energy reforms, economic restructuring, forestry policies, and economic slowdown. The effects of these emission changes on global mean temperatures are estimated and compared with the effects of concurrent changes in two aerosol species, sulfate and black carbon.

  10. Trends in global approvals of biotech crops (1992–2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aldemita, Rhodora R; Reaño, Ian Mari E; Solis, Renando O; Hautea, Randy A

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACT With the increasing number of genetically modified (GM) events, traits, and crops that are developed to benefit the global population, approval of these technologies for food, feed, cultivation and import in each country may vary depending on needs, demand and trade interest. ISAAA established a GMO Approval Database to document global approvals of biotech crops. GM event name, crops, traits, developer, year of approval for cultivation, food/feed, import, and relevant dossiers were sourced from credible government regulatory websites and biosafety clearinghouses. This paper investigates the trends in GM approvals for food, feed and cultivation based on the number of approving countries, GM crops, events, and traits in the last 23 y (1992–2014), rationale for approval, factors influencing approvals, and their implications in GM crop adoption. Results show that in 2014, there was an accumulative increase in the number of countries granting approvals at 29 (79% developing countries) for commercial cultivation and 31 (70% developing countries) for food and 19 (80% developing developing) for feed; 2012 had the highest number of approving countries and cultivation approvals; 2011 had the highest number of country approvals for feed, and 2014 for food approvals. Herbicide tolerance trait had the highest events approved, followed by insect tolerance traits. Approvals for food product quality increased in the second decade. Maize had the highest number of events approved (single and stacked traits), and stacked traits product gradually increased which is already 30% of the total trait approvals. These results may indicate understanding and acceptance of countries to enhance regulatory capability to be able to benefit from GM crop commercialization. Hence, the paper provided information on the trends on the growth of the GM crop industry in the last 23 y which may be vital in predicting future GM crops and traits. PMID:26039675

  11. Current Trends in the Nuclear Power Global Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariya Mikhailovna Osetskaya

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The review of the nuclear energy technologies market, namely the main processes of the initial and final stages of the nuclear fuel cycle (NTC was shown. The authors reveal key players in the markets of natural uranium mining, conversion, enrichment, fabrication of nuclear fuel, direct disposal, and reprocessing as well as determine their market shares. The article shows the fundamental factors influencing the development trends of the global nuclear power market such as: units’ commissioning in China, India, the Republic of Korea and other countries, the restart of the Japanese nuclear power plants, growth of uranium supplies long-term contracting planned for the period up to 2025, volatility of world prices of the NFC initial and final stages, political, economic and environmental reasons for the nuclear power generation choice. The article presents the results of analyses of Russian and world prices on the NFC initial and final stages main processes’ allowing to draw a conclusion about the current competitiveness of Russian nuclear energy technologies

  12. The link between a global 2 °C warming threshold and emissions in years 2020, 2050 and beyond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huntingford, Chris; Lowe, Jason A; Gohar, Laila K; Bowerman, Niel H A; Allen, Myles R; Raper, Sarah C B; Smith, Stephen M

    2012-01-01

    In the Copenhagen Accord, nations agreed on the need to limit global warming to two degrees to avoid potentially dangerous climate change, while in policy circles negotiations have placed a particular emphasis on emissions in years 2020 and 2050. We investigate the link between the probability of global warming remaining below two degrees (above pre-industrial levels) right through to year 2500 and what this implies for emissions in years 2020 and 2050, and any long-term emissions floor. This is achieved by mapping out the consequences of alternative emissions trajectories, all in a probabilistic framework and with results placed in a simple-to-use set of graphics. The options available for carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO 2 e) emissions in years 2020 and 2050 are narrow if society wishes to stay, with a chance of more likely than not, below the 2 °C target. Since cumulative emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases, and particularly CO 2 , are a key determinant of peak warming, the consequence of being near the top of emissions in the allowable range for 2020 is reduced flexibility in emissions in 2050 and higher required rates of societal decarbonization. Alternatively, higher 2020 emissions can be considered as reducing the probability of limiting warming to 2 °C. We find that the level of the long-term emissions floor has a strong influence on allowed 2020 and 2050 emissions for two degrees of global warming at a given probability. We place our analysis in the context of emissions pledges for year 2020 made at the end of and since the 2009 COP15 negotiations in Copenhagen. (letter)

  13. Historical gaseous and primary aerosol emissions in the United States from 1990 to 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Xing

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available An accurate description of emissions is crucial for model simulations to reproduce and interpret observed phenomena over extended time periods. In this study, we used an approach based on activity data to develop a consistent series of spatially resolved emissions in the United States from 1990 to 2010. The state-level anthropogenic emissions of SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic compounds, NH3, PM10 and PM2.5 for a total of 49 sectors were estimated based on several long-term databases containing information about activities and emission controls. Activity data for energy-related stationary sources were derived from the State Energy Data System. Corresponding emission factors reflecting implemented emission controls were calculated back from the National Emissions Inventory (NEI for seven years (i.e., 1990, 1995, 1996, 1999, 2001, 2002 and 2005, and constrained by the AP-42 (US EPA's Compilation of Air Pollutant Emissions Factors dataset. Activity data for mobile sources including different types of highway vehicles and non-highway equipment were obtained from highway statistics reported by the Federal Highway Administration. The trends in emission factors for highway mobile source were informed by the 2011 National Transportation Statistics. Emissions for all non-energy-related sources were either scaled by the growth ratio of activity indicators or adjusted based on the NEI trends report. Because of the strengthened control efforts, particularly for the power sector and mobile sources, emissions of all pollutants except NH3 were reduced by half over the last two decades. The emission trends developed in this study are comparable with the NEI trend report and EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research data, but better constrained by trends in activity data. Reductions in SO2, NOx, CO and EC (speciation of PM2.5 by SMOKE, Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions emissions agree well with the observed changes in

  14. Comparison of regional and global land cover products and the implications for biogenic emission modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ling; McDonald-Buller, Elena; McGaughey, Gary; Kimura, Yosuke; Allen, David T

    2015-10-01

    Accurate estimates of biogenic emissions are required for air quality models that support the development of air quality management plans and attainment demonstrations. Land cover characterization is an essential driving input for most biogenic emissions models. This work contrasted the global Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover product against a regional land cover product developed for the Texas Commissions on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) over four climate regions in eastern Texas, where biogenic emissions comprise a large fraction of the total inventory of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and land cover is highly diverse. The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) was utilized to investigate the influences of land cover characterization on modeled isoprene and monoterpene emissions through changes in the standard emission potential and emission activity factor, both separately and simultaneously. In Central Texas, forest coverage was significantly lower in the MODIS land cover product relative to the TCEQ data, which resulted in substantially lower estimates of isoprene and monoterpene emissions by as much as 90%. Differences in predicted isoprene and monoterpene emissions associated with variability in land cover characterization were primarily caused by differences in the standard emission potential, which is dependent on plant functional type. Photochemical modeling was conducted to investigate the effects of differences in estimated biogenic emissions associated with land cover characterization on predicted ozone concentrations using the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx). Mean differences in maximum daily average 8-hour (MDA8) ozone concentrations were 2 to 6 ppb with maximum differences exceeding 20 ppb. Continued focus should be on reducing uncertainties in the representation of land cover through field validation. Uncertainties in the estimation of biogenic emissions associated with

  15. Decadal trends in tropospheric ozone over East Asian Pacific rim during 1998-2007: Implications for emerging Asian emissions impacts and comparison to European and North American records (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanimoto, H.; Ohara, T.; Uno, I.

    2010-12-01

    We examine springtime ozone trends at nine remote locations in East Asian Pacific rim during the last decade (1998-2007). The observed decadal ozone trends are relatively small at surface sites but are substantially larger at a mountainous site. The level and increasing rate of ozone at the mountainous site are both higher than those observed at background sites in Europe and North America. We use a regional chemistry-transport model to explore the observed changes and how changes in Asian anthropogenic emissions have contributed to the observed increasing trends. The model with yearly-dependent regional emissions successfully reproduces the levels, variability, and interannual variations of ozone at all the surface sites. It predicts increasing trends at the mountainous site, suggesting that increasing Asian anthropogenic emissions account for about half the observed increase. However, the discrepancy between the observation and model results after 2003 (the time of largest emission increase) suggests significant underestimation of the actual growth of the Asian anthropogenic emissions and/or incompleteness in the modeling of pollution export from continental Asia. These findings imply that improving emissions inventory and transport scheme is needed to better understand rapidly evolving tropospheric ozone in East Asia and its potential climatic and environmental impacts.

  16. Quantitative assessment of industrial VOC emissions in China: Historical trend, spatial distribution, uncertainties, and projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Chenghang; Shen, Jiali; Zhang, Yongxin; Huang, Weiwei; Zhu, Xinbo; Wu, Xuecheng; Chen, Linghong; Gao, Xiang; Cen, Kefa

    2017-02-01

    The temporal trends of industrial volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions was comprehensively summarized for the 2011 to 2013 period, and the projections for 2020 to 2050 for China were set. The results demonstrate that industrial VOC emissions in China increased from 15.3 Tg in 2011 to 29.4 Tg in 2013 at an annual average growth rate of 38.3%. Guangdong (3.45 Tg), Shandong (2.85 Tg), and Jiangsu (2.62 Tg) were the three largest contributors collectively accounting for 30.4% of the national total emissions in 2013. The top three average industrial VOC emissions per square kilometer were Shanghai (247.2 ton/km2), Tianjin (62.8 ton/km2), and Beijing (38.4 ton/km2), which were 12-80 times of the average level in China. The data from the inventory indicate that the use of VOC-containing products, as well as the production and use of VOCs as raw materials, as well as for storage and transportation contributed 75.4%, 10.3%, 9.1%, and 5.2% of the total emissions, respectively. ArcGIS was used to display the remarkable spatial distribution variation by allocating the emission into 1 km × 1 km grid cells with a population as surrogate indexes. Combined with future economic development and population change, as well as implementation of policy and upgrade of control technologies, three scenarios (scenarios A, B, and C) were set to project industrial VOC emissions for the years 2020, 2030, and 2050, which present the industrial VOC emissions in different scenarios and the potential of reducing emissions. Finally, the result shows that the collaborative control policies considerably influenced industrial VOC emissions.

  17. Assessing carbon dioxide removal through global and regional ocean alkalinization under high and low emission pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenton, Andrew; Matear, Richard J.; Keller, David P.; Scott, Vivian; Vaughan, Naomi E.

    2018-04-01

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels continue to rise, increasing the risk of severe impacts on the Earth system, and on the ecosystem services that it provides. Artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA) is capable of reducing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and surface warming and addressing ocean acidification. Here, we simulate global and regional responses to alkalinity (ALK) addition (0.25 PmolALK yr-1) over the period 2020-2100 using the CSIRO-Mk3L-COAL Earth System Model, under high (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5; RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) emissions. While regionally there are large changes in alkalinity associated with locations of AOA, globally we see only a very weak dependence on where and when AOA is applied. On a global scale, while we see that under RCP2.6 the carbon uptake associated with AOA is only ˜ 60 % of the total, under RCP8.5 the relative changes in temperature are larger, as are the changes in pH (140 %) and aragonite saturation state (170 %). The simulations reveal AOA is more effective under lower emissions, therefore the higher the emissions the more AOA is required to achieve the same reduction in global warming and ocean acidification. Finally, our simulated AOA for 2020-2100 in the RCP2.6 scenario is capable of offsetting warming and ameliorating ocean acidification increases at the global scale, but with highly variable regional responses.

  18. Energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions in Iran, 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirzaei, Maryam [Department of Banking and Finance, Multimedia University (Malaysia); Bekri, Mahmoud [Economic and Statistic Institute, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (Germany)

    2017-04-15

    Climate change and global warming as the key human societies' threats are essentially associated with energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions. A system dynamic model was developed in this study to model the energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emission trends for Iran over 2000–2025. Energy policy factors are considered in analyzing the impact of different energy consumption factors on environmental quality. The simulation results show that the total energy consumption is predicted to reach 2150 by 2025, while that value in 2010 is 1910, which increased by 4.3% yearly. Accordingly, the total CO{sub 2} emissions in 2025 will reach 985 million tonnes, which shows about 5% increase yearly. Furthermore, we constructed policy scenarios based on energy intensity reduction. The analysis show that CO{sub 2} emissions will decrease by 12.14% in 2025 compared to 2010 in the scenario of 5% energy intensity reduction, and 17.8% in the 10% energy intensity reduction scenario. The results obtained in this study provide substantial awareness regarding Irans future energy and CO{sub 2} emission outlines. - Highlights: • Creation of an energy consumption model using system dynamics. • The effect of different policies on energy consumption and emission reductions. • An ascending trend for the environmental costs caused by CO{sub 2} emissions is observed. • An urgent need for energy saving and emission reductions in Iran.

  19. A mechanism for land-ocean contrasts in global monsoon trends in a warming climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fasullo, J. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, CAS/NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2012-09-15

    A central paradox of the global monsoon record involves reported decreases in rainfall over land during an era in which the global hydrologic cycle is both expected and observed to intensify. It is within this context that this work develops a physical basis for both interpreting the observed record and anticipating changes in the monsoons in a warming climate while bolstering the concept of the global monsoon in the context of shared feedbacks. The global-land monsoon record across multiple reanalyses is first assessed. Trends that in other studies have been taken as real are shown to likely be spurious as a result of changes in the assimilated data streams both prior to and during the satellite era. Nonetheless, based on satellite estimates, robust increases in monsoon rainfall over ocean do exist and a physical basis for this land-ocean contrast remains lacking. To address the contrast's causes, simulated trends are therefore assessed. While projections of total rainfall are inconsistent across models, the robust land-ocean contrast identified in observations is confirmed. A feedback mechanism is proposed rooted in the facts that land areas warm disproportionately relative to ocean, and onshore flow is the chief source of monsoonal moisture. Reductions in lower tropospheric relative humidity over land domains are therefore inevitable and these have direct consequences for the monsoonal convective environment including an increase in the lifting condensation level and a shift in the distribution of convection generally towards less frequent and potentially more intense events. The mechanism is interpreted as an important modulating influence on the ''rich-get-richer'' mechanism. Caveats for regional monsoons exist and are discussed. (orig.)

  20. Fugitive Emissions from the Bakken Shale Illustrate Role of Shale Production in Global Ethane Shift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kort, E. A.; Smith, M. L.; Murray, L. T.; Gvakharia, A.; Brandt, A. R.; Peischl, J.; Ryerson, T. B.; Sweeney, C.; Travis, K.

    2016-01-01

    Ethane is the second most abundant atmospheric hydrocarbon, exerts a strong influence on tropospheric ozone, and reduces the atmosphere's oxidative capacity. Global observations showed declining ethane abundances from 1984 to 2010, while a regional measurement indicated increasing levels since 2009, with the reason for this subject to speculation. The Bakken shale is an oil and gas-producing formation centered in North Dakota that experienced a rapid increase in production beginning in 2010. We use airborne data collected over the North Dakota portion of the Bakken shale in 2014 to calculate ethane emissions of 0.23 +/- 0.07 (2 sigma) Tg/yr, equivalent to 1-3% of total global sources. Emissions of this magnitude impact air quality via concurrent increases in tropospheric ozone. This recently developed large ethane source from one location illustrates the key role of shale oil and gas production in rising global ethane levels.

  1. Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production from SRES Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production from SRES Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios is an update to a major crop modeling study by the NASA Goddard...

  2. Defining the `negative emission' capacity of global agriculture deployed for enhanced rock weathering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beerling, D. J.; Taylor, L.; Banwart, S. A.; Kantzas, E. P.; Lomas, M.; Mueller, C.; Ridgwell, A.; Quegan, S.

    2016-12-01

    Enhanced rock weathering involves application of crushed silicates (e.g. basalt) to the landscape to accelerate their chemical breakdown to release base cations and form bicarbonate that ultimate sequester CO2 in the oceans. Global croplands cover an area of 12 million km2 and might be deployed for long-term removal of anthropogenic CO2 through enhanced rock weathering with a number of co-benefits for food security. This presentation assesses the potential of this strategy to contribute to `negative emissions' as defined by a suite of simulations coupling a detailed model of rock grain weathering by crop root-microbial processes with a managed land dynamic global vegetation model driven by the `business as usual' future climate change scenarios. We calculate potential atmospheric CO2 drawdown over the next century by introducing a strengthened C-sink term into the global carbon cycle model within an intermediate complexity Earth system model. Our simulations indicate agricultural lands deployed in this way constitute a `low tech' biological negative emissions strategy. As part of a wider portfolio of options, this strategy might contribute to limiting future warming to 2oC, subject to economic costs and energy requirements.

  3. The Role of Organizational Leadership to Enhance Top 10 CSR Issues and Trends in The Global Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dewi Rachmayanti

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Research on leadership and its relationship with organizational performance have been carried out and not considered Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR performance, especially in the field of community development (Comdev and even done partially. This study aims to investigate the role of organizational leadership to enhance Top 10 CSR issues and trends in the global economy which defines roles and leadership competencies. Thirteen experts were involved in the Forum of Multi Stakeholder Corporate Social Responsibility (MSHCSR through Focus Group Discussion (FGD. Data by cluster random sampling were statistically analyzed with Assumption Surfacing and Testing Strategy (SAST. The results showed from FGD experts stating if eight roles and eight competencies of the organization’s leadership is very important and influential to enhance Top 10 CSR issues and trends in the global economy.

  4. Historical (1750–2014 anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. M. Hoesly

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a new data set of annual historical (1750–2014 anthropogenic chemically reactive gases (CO, CH4, NH3, NOx, SO2, NMVOCs, carbonaceous aerosols (black carbon – BC, and organic carbon – OC, and CO2 developed with the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS. We improve upon existing inventories with a more consistent and reproducible methodology applied to all emission species, updated emission factors, and recent estimates through 2014. The data system relies on existing energy consumption data sets and regional and country-specific inventories to produce trends over recent decades. All emission species are consistently estimated using the same activity data over all time periods. Emissions are provided on an annual basis at the level of country and sector and gridded with monthly seasonality. These estimates are comparable to, but generally slightly higher than, existing global inventories. Emissions over the most recent years are more uncertain, particularly in low- and middle-income regions where country-specific emission inventories are less available. Future work will involve refining and updating these emission estimates, estimating emissions' uncertainty, and publication of the system as open-source software.

  5. Future atmospheric abundances and climate forcings from scenarios of global and regional hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velders, Guus J. M.; Fahey, David W.; Daniel, John S.; Andersen, Stephen O.; McFarland, Mack

    2015-12-01

    Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are manufactured for use as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances that are being phased out globally under Montreal Protocol regulations. While HFCs do not deplete ozone, many are potent greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Here, new global scenarios show that baseline emissions of HFCs could reach 4.0-5.3 GtCO2-eq yr-1 in 2050. The new baseline (or business-as-usual) scenarios are formulated for 10 HFC compounds, 11 geographic regions, and 13 use categories. The scenarios rely on detailed data reported by countries to the United Nations; projections of gross domestic product and population; and recent observations of HFC atmospheric abundances. In the baseline scenarios, by 2050 China (31%), India and the rest of Asia (23%), the Middle East and northern Africa (11%), and the USA (10%) are the principal source regions for global HFC emissions; and refrigeration (40-58%) and stationary air conditioning (21-40%) are the major use sectors. The corresponding radiative forcing could reach 0.22-0.25 W m-2 in 2050, which would be 12-24% of the increase from business-as-usual CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2050. National regulations to limit HFC use have already been adopted in the European Union, Japan and USA, and proposals have been submitted to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially reduce growth in HFC use. Calculated baseline emissions are reduced by 90% in 2050 by implementing the North America Montreal Protocol amendment proposal. Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations would be sufficient to reduce 2050 baseline HFC consumption by more than 50% of that achieved with the North America proposal for most developed and developing countries.

  6. The Net Climate Impact of Coal-Fired Power Plant Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shindell, D.; Faluvegi, G.

    2010-01-01

    Coal-fired power plants influence climate via both the emission of long-lived carbon dioxide (CO2) and short-lived ozone and aerosol precursors. Using a climate model, we perform the first study of the spatial and temporal pattern of radiative forcing specifically for coal plant emissions. Without substantial pollution controls, we find that near-term net global mean climate forcing is negative due to the well-known aerosol masking of the effects of CO2. Imposition of pollution controls on sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides leads to a rapid realization of the full positive forcing from CO2, however. Long-term global mean forcing from stable (constant) emissions is positive regardless of pollution controls. Emissions from coal-fired power plants until 1970, including roughly 1/3 of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions, likely contributed little net global mean climate forcing during that period though they may have induce weak Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude (NHml) cooling. After that time many areas imposed pollution controls or switched to low sulfur coal. Hence forcing due to emissions from 1970 to 2000 and CO2 emitted previously was strongly positive and contributed to rapid global and especially NHml warming. Most recently, new construction in China and India has increased rapidly with minimal application of pollution controls. Continuation of this trend would add negative near-term global mean climate forcing but severely degrade air quality. Conversely, following the Western and Japanese pattern of imposing air quality pollution controls at a later time could accelerate future warming rates, especially at NHmls. More broadly, our results indicate that due to spatial and temporal inhomogeneities in forcing, climate impacts of multi-pollutant emissions can vary strongly from region to region and can include substantial effects on maximum rate-of-change, neither of which are captured by commonly used global metrics. The method we introduce here to estimate

  7. An alternative to the global warming potential for comparing climate impacts of emissions of greenhouse gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shine, Keith P.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Stuber, Nicola

    2003-01-01

    The global warming potential (GWP) is used within the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a metric for weighting the climate impact of emissions of different greenhouse gases. The GQP has been subject at many criticism because of its formulation but nevertheless it has retained some favour because of the simplicity of this design and application and its transparency compared to proposed alternatives. Here a new metric which we call the Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP) is proposed which is based on a simple analytical climate model that represents the temperature change as a given time due to either a pulse emission of a gas or a sustained emission change relative to a similar emission change of carbon dioxide. The GTP for a pulse emission illustrates that the GWP does not represent well the relative temperature response; however, the GWP is shown to be very close to the GTP for a sustained emission change for time horizons of 100 years or more. The new metric retains the advantage of the GWP in terms of transparency and the relatively small number of input parameters required for calculation. However, it has an enhanced relevance as it is further down the cause-effect chain of the impacts of greenhouse gases emissions. The GTP for a sustained emission appears to be robust to a number of uncertainties and simplifications in its derivation and may be an attractive alternative to the GWP. (Author)

  8. Forecasting global developments in the basic chemical industry for environmental policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broeren, M.L.M.; Saygin, D.; Patel, M.K.

    2014-01-01

    The chemical sector is the largest industrial energy user, but detailed analysis of its energy use developments lags behind other energy-intensive sectors. A cost-driven forecasting model for basic chemicals production is developed, accounting for regional production costs, demand growth and stock turnover. The model determines the global production capacity placement, implementation of energy-efficient Best Practice Technology (BPT) and global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions for the period 2010–2030. Subsequently, the effects of energy and climate policies on these parameters are quantified. About 60% of new basic chemical production capacity is projected to be placed in non-OECD regions by 2030 due to low energy prices. While global production increases by 80% between 2010 and 2030, the OECD's production capacity share decreases from 40% to 20% and global emissions increase by 50%. Energy pricing and climate policies are found to reduce 2030 CO 2 emissions by 5–15% relative to the baseline developments by increasing BPT implementation. Maximum BPT implementation results in a 25% reduction. Further emission reductions require measures beyond energy-efficient technologies. The model is useful to estimate general trends related to basic chemicals production, but improved data from the chemical sector is required to expand the analysis to additional technologies and chemicals. - Highlights: • We develop a global cost-driven forecasting model for the basic chemical sector. • We study regional production, energy-efficient technology, emissions and policies. • Between 2010 and 2030, 60% of new chemicals capacity is built in non-OECD regions. • Global CO 2 emissions rise by 50%, but climate policies may limit this to 30–40%. • Measures beyond energy efficiency are needed to prevent increasing CO 2 emissions

  9. Peculiarities of spreading separatist trends in the Modern World in the context of development of the global processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bostan Sergii Ivanovich

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The international collaboration is entering the new era of globalization revealing not only the new ways of development and quantum growth for humanity but also new threats, problems and global conflicts. There is now doubt that humanity is facing new global range of problems, agenda of the 21st century and urgent issues of global organization of the world order and systems of global administration acceptable for all states. Preventing distribution of international confrontation between the major political players through advancement of separatist and terrorist trends must become the main priority for the international system of collective security, which should be changed according to the realities of the modern global processes.

  10. Enhancing atmospheric mercury research in China to improve the current understanding of the global mercury cycle: the need for urgent and closely coordinated efforts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ci, Zhijia; Zhang, Xiaoshan; Wang, Zhangwei

    2012-06-05

    The current understanding of the global mercury (Hg) cycle remains uncertain because Hg behavior in the environment is very complicated. The special property of Hg causes the atmosphere to be the most important medium for worldwide dispersion and transformation. The source and fate of atmospheric Hg and its interaction with the surface environment are the essential topics in the global Hg cycle. Recent declining measurement trends of Hg in the atmosphere are in apparent conflict with the increasing trends in global anthropogenic Hg emissions. As the single largest country contributor of anthropogenic Hg emission, China's role in the global Hg cycle will become more and more important in the context of the decreasing man-made Hg emission from developed regions. However, much less Hg information in China is available. As a global pollutant which undergoes long-range transport and is persistence in the environment, increasing Hg knowledge in China could not only promote the Hg regulation in this country but also improve the understanding of the fundamental of the global Hg cycle and further push the abatement of this toxin on a global scale. Then the atmospheric Hg research in China may be a breakthrough for improving the current understanding of the global Hg cycle. However, due to the complex behavior of Hg in the atmosphere, a deeper understanding of the atmospheric Hg cycle in China needs greater cooperation across fields.

  11. LEDS Global Partnership in Action: Advancing Climate-Resilient Low Emission Development Around the World (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2013-11-01

    Many countries around the globe are designing and implementing low emission development strategies (LEDS). These LEDS seek to achieve social, economic, and environmental development goals while reducing long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increasing resiliency to climate change impacts. The LEDS Global Partnership (LEDS GP) harnesses the collective knowledge and resources of more than 120 countries and international donor and technical organizations to strengthen climate-resilient low emission development efforts around the world.

  12. Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonius G T Schut

    Full Text Available Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010 derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.

  13. Panorama 2009 - trends and challenges in passenger mobility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Current demand for mobility encourages people to seek fast, individual means of transport. The automobile accounts for the bulk of passenger travel worldwide. This mode of transport is a source of annoying and harmful effects including noise, accidents, deteriorating infrastructure, traffic congestion and pollution (local and atmospheric). Some of these issues are now under regulation and have become less acute, but traffic congestion and greenhouse gas emissions are still major problems. Before assessing any policy undertaken to curb nuisance levels and harmful effects, one must be familiar with global mobility trends and the challenges involved

  14. Interannual variations and trends in global land surface phenology derived from enhanced vegetation index during 1982-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaoyang; Tan, Bin; Yu, Yunyue

    2014-05-01

    Land surface phenology is widely retrieved from satellite observations at regional and global scales, and its long-term record has been demonstrated to be a valuable tool for reconstructing past climate variations, monitoring the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems in response to climate impacts, and predicting biological responses to future climate scenarios. This study detected global land surface phenology from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 1982 to 2010. Based on daily enhanced vegetation index at a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees, we simulated the seasonal vegetative trajectory for each individual pixel using piecewise logistic models, which was then used to detect the onset of greenness increase (OGI) and the length of vegetation growing season (GSL). Further, both overall interannual variations and pixel-based trends were examined across Koeppen's climate regions for the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010, respectively. The results show that OGI and GSL varied considerably during 1982-2010 across the globe. Generally, the interannual variation could be more than a month in precipitation-controlled tropical and dry climates while it was mainly less than 15 days in temperature-controlled temperate, cold, and polar climates. OGI, overall, shifted early, and GSL was prolonged from 1982 to 2010 in most climate regions in North America and Asia while the consistently significant trends only occurred in cold climate and polar climate in North America. The overall trends in Europe were generally insignificant. Over South America, late OGI was consistent (particularly from 1982 to 1999) while either positive or negative GSL trends in a climate region were mostly reversed between the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010. In the Northern Hemisphere of Africa, OGI trends were mostly insignificant, but prolonged GSL was evident over individual climate regions during the last 3

  15. Focus on cumulative emissions, global carbon budgets and the implications for climate mitigation targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damon Matthews, H.; Zickfeld, Kirsten; Knutti, Reto; Allen, Myles R.

    2018-01-01

    The Environmental Research Letters focus issue on ‘Cumulative Emissions, Global Carbon Budgets and the Implications for Climate Mitigation Targets’ was launched in 2015 to highlight the emerging science of the climate response to cumulative emissions, and how this can inform efforts to decrease emissions fast enough to avoid dangerous climate impacts. The 22 research articles published represent a fantastic snapshot of the state-or-the-art in this field, covering both the science and policy aspects of cumulative emissions and carbon budget research. In this Review and Synthesis, we summarize the findings published in this focus issue, outline some suggestions for ongoing research needs, and present our assessment of the implications of this research for ongoing efforts to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement.

  16. Evaluation of Global Photosynthesis and BVOC Emission Covariance with Climate in NASA ModelE2-Y

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, N.

    2012-12-01

    Terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP), a measure of the total amount of CO2 removed from the atmosphere every year to fuel photosynthesis, is the largest global carbon flux. GPP is vital for human welfare as the basis for food and fiber, and provides the crucial ecosystem service of reducing the accumulation of fossil fuel CO2 in the atmosphere. Land plants emit a significant fraction of the assimilated carbon back to the atmosphere in the form of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). Isoprene is the dominant BVOC emission with an estimated global source of 200-660 TgC/yr. Global monoterpene emission estimates range from 30-130 TgC/yr. BVOC photochemical oxidation exerts a profound impact on the distribution and variability of the short-lived climate forcers: ozone, biogenic secondary organic aerosol and methane. Here, we apply multiple observational datasets from a suite of platforms to evaluate an updated global chemistry-climate model that is coupled to a new vegetation biophysics scheme incorporating photosynthesis-dependent BVOC emissions (NASA ModelE2-Y). A fixed vegetation structure dataset based on 8 plant functional types and prescribed phenology including crop planting and harvesting gives GPP of 128 PgC/yr and a global isoprene source of 200TgC/yr. The model GPP captures 85% of the annual average zonal mean variability in a FLUXNET-derived global dataset that was generated by data orientated diagnostic upscaling. We assess model BVOC emission climatology against a comprehensive database of campaign-average above canopy flux measurements and surface concentrations of isoprene and monoterpene collected between 1995-2010 across a wide range of ecosystem types, regions and seasons (> 25 flux estimates; > 22 surface concentration values). We evaluate the diurnal, seasonal and interannual integrity of the model BVOC variability against 9 sites for isoprene and 4 sites for monoterpene. The model captures ~60% of the variability in the time

  17. Recent intensification of winter haze in China linked to foreign emissions and meteorology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; Wang, Hailong; Smith, Steven J; Zhang, Rudong; Lou, Sijia; Qian, Yun; Ma, Po-Lun; Rasch, Philip J

    2018-02-01

    Wintertime aerosol pollution in the North China Plain has increased over the past several decades as anthropogenic emissions in China have increased, and has dramatically escalated since the beginning of the 21 st century, but the causes and their quantitative attributions remain unclear. Here we use an aerosol source tagging capability implemented in a global aerosol-climate model to assess long-term trends of PM 2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter) in the North China Plain. Our analysis suggests that the impact of China's increasing domestic emissions on PM 2.5 concentrations over the last two decades of 20 th century was partially offset (13%) by decreasing foreign emission over this period. As foreign emissions stabilized after 2000, their counteracting effect almost disappeared, uncovering the impact of China's increasing domestic emissions that had been partially offset in previous years by reductions in foreign emissions. A slowdown in the impact from foreign emission reductions together with weakening winds explain 25% of the increased PM 2.5 trend over 2000-2014 as compared to 1980-2000. Further reductions in foreign emissions are not expected to relieve China's pollution in the future. Reducing local emissions is the most certain way to improve future air quality in the North China Plain.

  18. Statistical Analysis of Development Trends in Global Renewable Energy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina D. Simonova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on the economic and statistical analysis of industries associated with the use of renewable energy sources in several countries. The dynamic development and implementation of technologies based on renewable energy sources (hereinafter RES is the defining trend of world energy development. The uneven distribution of hydrocarbon reserves, increasing demand of developing countries and environmental risks associated with the production and consumption of fossil resources has led to an increasing interest of many states to this field. Creating low-carbon economies involves the implementation of plans to increase the proportion of clean energy through renewable energy sources, energy efficiency, reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The priority of this sector is a characteristic feature of modern development of developed (USA, EU, Japan and emerging economies (China, India, Brazil, etc., as evidenced by the inclusion of the development of this segment in the state energy strategies and the revision of existing approaches to energy security. The analysis of the use of renewable energy, its contribution to value added of countries-producers is of a particular interest. Over the last decade, the share of energy produced from renewable sources in the energy balances of the world's largest economies increased significantly. Every year the number of power generating capacity based on renewable energy is growing, especially, this trend is apparent in China, USA and European Union countries. There is a significant increase in direct investment in renewable energy. The total investment over the past ten years increased by 5.6 times. The most rapidly developing kinds are solar energy and wind power.

  19. Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Assessment of global-scale model performance for global and regional ozone distributions, variability, and trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Young

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR is to provide the research community with an up-to-date scientific assessment of tropospheric ozone, from the surface to the tropopause. While a suite of observations provides significant information on the spatial and temporal distribution of tropospheric ozone, observational gaps make it necessary to use global atmospheric chemistry models to synthesize our understanding of the processes and variables that control tropospheric ozone abundance and its variability. Models facilitate the interpretation of the observations and allow us to make projections of future tropospheric ozone and trace gas distributions for different anthropogenic or natural perturbations. This paper assesses the skill of current-generation global atmospheric chemistry models in simulating the observed present-day tropospheric ozone distribution, variability, and trends. Drawing upon the results of recent international multi-model intercomparisons and using a range of model evaluation techniques, we demonstrate that global chemistry models are broadly skillful in capturing the spatio-temporal variations of tropospheric ozone over the seasonal cycle, for extreme pollution episodes, and changes over interannual to decadal periods. However, models are consistently biased high in the northern hemisphere and biased low in the southern hemisphere, throughout the depth of the troposphere, and are unable to replicate particular metrics that define the longer term trends in tropospheric ozone as derived from some background sites. When the models compare unfavorably against observations, we discuss the potential causes of model biases and propose directions for future developments, including improved evaluations that may be able to better diagnose the root cause of the model-observation disparity. Overall, model results should be approached critically, including determining whether the model performance is acceptable for

  20. Update and improvement of the global krypton-85 emission inventory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahlswede, Jochen; Hebel, Simon; Ross, J Ole; Schoetter, Robert; Kalinowski, Martin B

    2013-01-01

    Krypton-85 is mainly produced in nuclear reactors by fission of uranium and plutonium and released during chopping and dissolution of spent fuel rods in nuclear reprocessing facilities. As noble gas it is suited as a passive tracer for evaluation of atmospheric transport models. Furthermore, research is ongoing to assess its quality as an indicator for clandestine reprocessing activities. This paper continues previous efforts to compile a comprehensive historic emission inventory for krypton-85. Reprocessing facilities are the by far largest emitters of krypton-85. Information on sources and calculations used to derive the annual krypton-85 emission is provided for all known reprocessing facilities in the world. In addition, the emission characteristics of two plants, Tokai (Japan) and La Hague (France), are analysed in detail using emission data with high temporal resolution. Other types of krypton-85 sources are power reactors, naval reactors and isotope production facilities. These sources contribute only little or negligible amounts of krypton-85 compared to the large reprocessing facilities. Taking the decay of krypton-85 into account, the global atmospheric inventory is estimated to about 5500 PBq at the end of 2009. The correctness if the inventory has been proven by meteorological simulations and its error is assumed to be in the range of a few percent. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.