WorldWideScience

Sample records for global emission trends

  1. Trends in global CO2 emissions. 2013 Report

    Olivier, J.G.J.; Peters, J.A.H.W. [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Den Haag (Netherlands); Janssens-Maenhout, G. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, European Commission' s Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy); Muntean, M. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy)

    2013-10-15

    This report discusses the results of a trend assessment of global CO2 emissions up to 2012 and updates last year's assessment. This assessment focuses on the changes in annual CO2 emissions from 2011 to 2012, and includes not only fossil-fuel combustion on which the BP reports are based, but also incorporates other relevant CO2 emissions sources including flaring of waste gas during gas and oil production, cement clinker production and other limestone uses, feedstock and other non-energy uses of fuels, and several other small sources. The report clarifies the CO2 emission sources covered, and describes the methodology and data sources. More details are provided in Annex 1 over the 2010-2012 period, including a discussion of the degree of uncertainty in national and global CO2 emission estimates. Chapter 2 presents a summary of recent CO2 emission trends, per main country or region, including a comparison between emissions per capita and per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and of the underlying trend in fossil-fuel production and use, non-fossil energy and other CO2 sources. Specific attention is given to developments in shale gas and oil production and oil sands production and their impact on CO2 emissions. To provide a broader context of global emissions trends, international greenhouse gas mitigation targets and agreements are also presented, including different perspectives of emission accounting per country. In particular, annual trends with respect to the Kyoto Protocol target and Cancun agreements and cumulative global CO2 emissions of the last decade are compared with scientific literature that analyses global emissions in relation to the target of 2{sup 0}C maximum global warming in the 21st century, which was adopted in the UN climate negotiations. In addition, we briefly discuss the rapid development and implementation of various emission trading schemes, because of their increasing importance as a cross-cutting policy instrument for mitigating

  2. Trends in global CO2 emissions. 2012 Report

    Olivier, J.G.J.; Peters, J.A.H.W. [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Den Haag (Netherlands); Janssens-Maenhout, G. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, European Commission' s Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy)

    2012-07-15

    This report discusses the results of a trend assessment of global CO2 emissions up to 2011 and updates last year's assessment. This assessment focusses on the changes in annual CO2 emissions from 2010 to 2011, and includes not only fossil fuel combustion on which the BP reports are based, but also incorporates all other relevant CO2 emissions sources including flaring of waste gas during oil production, cement clinker production and other limestone uses, feedstock and other non-energy uses of fuels, and several other small sources. After a short description of the methods used (Chapter 2), we first present a summary of recent CO2 emission trends, by region and by country, and of the underlying trend of fossil fuel use, non-fossil energy and of other CO2 sources (Chapter 3). To provide a broader context of the global trends we also assess the cumulative global CO2 emissions of the last decade, i.e. since 2000, and compare it with scientific literature that analyse global emissions in relation to the target of 2C maximum global warming in the 21st century, which was adopted in the UN climate negotiations (Chapter 4). Compared to last year's report, Annex 1 includes a more detailed and updated discussion of the uncertainty in national and global CO2 emission estimates.

  3. Trends in global CO2 emissions. 2012 Report

    Olivier, J. G.J.; Peters, J. A.H.W. [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Den Haag (Netherlands); Janssens-Maenhout, G. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, European Commission' s Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy)

    2012-07-15

    This report discusses the results of a trend assessment of global CO2 emissions up to 2011 and updates last year's assessment. This assessment focusses on the changes in annual CO2 emissions from 2010 to 2011, and includes not only fossil fuel combustion on which the BP reports are based, but also incorporates all other relevant CO2 emissions sources including flaring of waste gas during oil production, cement clinker production and other limestone uses, feedstock and other non-energy uses of fuels, and several other small sources. After a short description of the methods used (Chapter 2), we first present a summary of recent CO2 emission trends, by region and by country, and of the underlying trend of fossil fuel use, non-fossil energy and of other CO2 sources (Chapter 3). To provide a broader context of the global trends we also assess the cumulative global CO2 emissions of the last decade, i.e. since 2000, and compare it with scientific literature that analyse global emissions in relation to the target of 2C maximum global warming in the 21st century, which was adopted in the UN climate negotiations (Chapter 4). Compared to last year's report, Annex 1 includes a more detailed and updated discussion of the uncertainty in national and global CO2 emission estimates.

  4. Sectoral trends in global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions

    de Ia Rue du Can, Stephane; Price, Lynn

    2008-01-01

    Integrated assessment models have been used to project both baseline and mitigation greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results of these scenarios are typically presented for a number of world regions and end-use sectors, such as industry, transport, and buildings. Analysts interested in particular technologies and policies, however, require more detailed information to understand specific mitigation options in relation to business-as-usual trends. This paper presents sectoral trend for two of the scenarios produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Global and regional historical trends in energy use and carbon dioxide emissions over the past 30 years are examined and contrasted with projections over the next 30 years. Macro-activity indicators are analyzed as well as trends in sectoral energy and carbon demand. This paper also describes a methodology to calculate primary energy and carbon dioxide emissions at the sector level, accounting for the full energy and emissions due to sectoral activities. (author)

  5. Decadal trends in global CO emissions as seen by MOPITT

    Yin, Y.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Broquet, G.; Fortems-Cheiney, A.; Pison, I.; Saunois, M.

    2015-12-01

    Negative trends of carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations are observed in the recent decade by both surface measurements and satellite retrievals over many regions of the globe, but they are not well explained by current emission inventories. Here, we analyse the observed CO concentration decline with an atmospheric inversion that simultaneously optimizes the two main CO sources (surface emissions and atmospheric hydrocarbon oxidations) and the main CO sink (atmospheric hydroxyl radical OH oxidation). Satellite CO column retrievals from Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT), version 6, and surface observations of methane and methyl chloroform mole fractions are assimilated jointly for the period covering 2002-2011. Compared to the model simulation prescribed with prior emission inventories, trends in the optimized CO concentrations show better agreement with that of independent surface in situ measurements. At the global scale, the atmospheric inversion primarily interprets the CO concentration decline as a decrease in the CO emissions (-2.3 % yr-1), more than twice the negative trend estimated by the prior emission inventories (-1.0 % yr-1). The spatial distribution of the inferred decrease in CO emissions indicates contributions from western Europe (-4.0 % yr-1), the United States (-4.6 % yr-1) and East Asia (-1.2 % yr-1), where anthropogenic fuel combustion generally dominates the overall CO emissions, and also from Australia (-5.3 % yr-1), the Indo-China Peninsula (-5.6 % yr-1), Indonesia (-6.7 % y-1), and South America (-3 % yr-1), where CO emissions are mostly due to biomass burning. In contradiction with the bottom-up inventories that report an increase of 2 % yr-1 over China during the study period, a significant emission decrease of 1.1 % yr-1 is inferred by the inversion. A large decrease in CO emission factors due to technology improvements would outweigh the increase in carbon fuel combustions and may explain this decrease. Independent

  6. Global time trends in PAH emissions from motor vehicles

    Shen, Huizhong; Tao, Shu; Wang, Rong; Wang, Bin; Shen, Guofeng; Li, Wei; Su, Shenshen; Huang, Ye; Wang, Xilong; Liu, Wenxin; Li, Bengang; Sun, Kang

    2011-04-01

    Emission from motor vehicles is the most important source of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in urban areas. Emission factors of individual PAHs for motor vehicles reported in the literature varied 4 to 5 orders of magnitude, leading to high uncertainty in emission inventory. In this study, key factors affecting emission factors of PAHs (EF PAH) for motor vehicles were evaluated quantitatively based on thousands of EF PAH measured in 16 countries for over 50 years. The result was used to develop a global emission inventory of PAHs from motor vehicles. It was found that country and vehicle model year are the most important factors affecting EF PAH, which can be quantified using a monovariate regression model with per capita gross domestic production (purchasing power parity) as a sole independent variable. On average, 29% of variation in log-transformed EF PAH could be explained by the model, which was equivalent to 90% reduction in overall uncertainty on arithmetic scale. The model was used to predict EF PAH and subsequently PAH emissions from motor vehicles for various countries in the world during a period from 1971 to 2030. It was estimated that the global emission reached its peak value of approximate 101 Gg in 1978 and decreased afterwards due to emission control in developed countries. The annual emission picked up again since 1990 owing to accelerated energy consumption in China and other developing countries. With more and more rigid control measures taken in the developing world, global emission of PAHs is currently passing its second peak. It was predicted that the emission would decrease from 77 Gg in 2010 to 42 Gg in 2030.

  7. Global distribution of methane emissions, emission trends, and OH trends inferred from an inversion of GOSAT data for 2010-2015

    Maasakkers, J. D.; Jacob, D.; Payer Sulprizio, M.; Hersher, M.; Scarpelli, T.; Turner, A. J.; Sheng, J.; Bloom, A. A.; Bowman, K. W.; Parker, R.

    2017-12-01

    We present a global inversion of methane sources and sinks using GOSAT satellite data from 2010 up to 2015. The inversion optimizes emissions and their trends at 4° × 5° resolution as well as the interannual variability of global OH concentrations. It uses an analytical approach that quantifies the information content from the GOSAT observations and provides full error characterization. We show how the analytical approach can be applied in log-space, ensuring the positivity of the posterior. The inversion starts from state-of-science a priori emission inventories including the Gridded EPA inventory for US anthropogenic emissions, detailed oil and gas emissions for Canada and Mexico, EDGAR v4.3.2 for anthropogenic emissions in other countries, the WetCHARTs product for wetlands, and our own estimates for geological seeps. Inversion results show lower emissions over Western Europe and China than predicted by EDGAR v4.3.2 but higher emissions over Japan. In contrast to previous inversions that used incorrect patterns in a priori emissions, we find that the EPA inventory does not underestimate US anthropogenic emissions. Results for trends show increasing emissions in the tropics combined with decreasing emissions in Europe, and a decline in OH concentrations contributing to the global methane trend.

  8. Spatial and Temporal Trends in Global Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides from 1960 to 2014.

    Huang, Tianbo; Zhu, Xi; Zhong, Qirui; Yun, Xiao; Meng, Wenjun; Li, Bengang; Ma, Jianmin; Zeng, Eddy Y; Tao, Shu

    2017-07-18

    The quantification of nitrogen oxide (NO x ) emissions is critical for air quality modeling. Based on updated fuel consumption and emission factor databases, a global emission inventory was compiled with high spatial (0.1° × 0.1°), temporal (monthly), and source (87 sources) resolutions for the period 1960 to 2014. The monthly emission data have been uploaded online ( http://inventory.pku.edu.cn ), along with a number of other air pollutant and greenhouse gas data for free download. Differences in source profiles, not global total quantities, between our results and those reported previously were found. There were significant differences in total and per capita emissions and emission intensities among countries, especially between the developing and developed countries. Globally, the total annual NO x emissions finally stopped increasing in 2013 after continuously increasing over several decades, largely due to strict control measures taken in China in recent years. Nevertheless, the peak year of NO x emissions was later than for many other major air pollutants. Per capita emissions, either among countries or over years, follow typical inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets curves, indicating that the emissions increased during the early stage of development and were restrained when socioeconomic development reached certain points. Although the trends are similar among countries, the turning points of developing countries appeared sooner than those of developed countries in terms of development status, confirming late-move advantages.

  9. Trends and Variability of Global Fire Emissions Due To Historical Anthropogenic Activities

    Ward, Daniel S.; Shevliakova, Elena; Malyshev, Sergey; Rabin, Sam

    2018-01-01

    Globally, fires are a major source of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere, occurring on a seasonal cycle and with substantial interannual variability. To understand past trends and variability in sources and sinks of terrestrial carbon, we need quantitative estimates of global fire distributions. Here we introduce an updated version of the Fire Including Natural and Agricultural Lands model, version 2 (FINAL.2), modified to include multiday burning and enhanced fire spread rate in forest crowns. We demonstrate that the improved model reproduces the interannual variability and spatial distribution of fire emissions reported in present-day remotely sensed inventories. We use FINAL.2 to simulate historical (post-1700) fires and attribute past fire trends and variability to individual drivers: land use and land cover change, population growth, and lightning variability. Global fire emissions of carbon increase by about 10% between 1700 and 1900, reaching a maximum of 3.4 Pg C yr-1 in the 1910s, followed by a decrease to about 5% below year 1700 levels by 2010. The decrease in emissions from the 1910s to the present day is driven mainly by land use change, with a smaller contribution from increased fire suppression due to increased human population and is largest in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Interannual variability of global fire emissions is similar in the present day as in the early historical period, but present-day wildfires would be more variable in the absence of land use change.

  10. Building Trust in Emissions Reporting. Global Trends in Emissions Trading Schemes

    Kruijd, J.; Walrecht, A.; Laseur, J.; Schoolderman, H.; Gledhill, R.

    2007-02-15

    This report highlights the key characteristics of the world's main emission trading schemes, presents a new vision for compliance in emissions trading and calls for global action to develop this. Climate change is now at the top of the political and business agenda. Al Gore's 'An Inconvenient Truth', the Stern Review and the now almost daily press coverage of climate change science and impacts have engaged many of the global leaders in government and in business. Emissions trading is increasingly seen as a central plank in the response to climate change. But market mechanisms like this depend on trust and confidence. Any widespread or systemic failure, as a result of deficient monitoring and reporting, flawed compliance processes or fraud, could undermine confidence in markets and regulation and jeopardise the crucial policy goals that they are designed to address. Key to this trust are the three central criteria of transparency, accountability and integrity. The PricewaterhouseCoopers report looks at how the patchwork of trading schemes that are emerging around the globe stacks up against these criteria. Despite good intentions across the board, the general picture is one of new and immature markets, inconsistent and complex compliance frameworks and risk. PricewaterhouseCoopers make the case for urgent and coordinated action to develop a framework of generally accepted principles and practice that will underpin trust and efficiency in these new markets - in effect, a new Global Emissions Compliance Language.

  11. Building Trust in Emissions Reporting. Global Trends in Emissions Trading Schemes

    Kruijd, J.; Walrecht, A.; Laseur, J.; Schoolderman, H.; Gledhill, R.

    2007-02-01

    This report highlights the key characteristics of the world's main emission trading schemes, presents a new vision for compliance in emissions trading and calls for global action to develop this. Climate change is now at the top of the political and business agenda. Al Gore's 'An Inconvenient Truth', the Stern Review and the now almost daily press coverage of climate change science and impacts have engaged many of the global leaders in government and in business. Emissions trading is increasingly seen as a central plank in the response to climate change. But market mechanisms like this depend on trust and confidence. Any widespread or systemic failure, as a result of deficient monitoring and reporting, flawed compliance processes or fraud, could undermine confidence in markets and regulation and jeopardise the crucial policy goals that they are designed to address. Key to this trust are the three central criteria of transparency, accountability and integrity. The PricewaterhouseCoopers report looks at how the patchwork of trading schemes that are emerging around the globe stacks up against these criteria. Despite good intentions across the board, the general picture is one of new and immature markets, inconsistent and complex compliance frameworks and risk. PricewaterhouseCoopers make the case for urgent and coordinated action to develop a framework of generally accepted principles and practice that will underpin trust and efficiency in these new markets - in effect, a new Global Emissions Compliance Language

  12. Global Energy Trends - 2016 report. Towards a Peak in Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions?

    2016-06-01

    Celebrating the 20. anniversary of this yearly publication, Enerdata has newly released its annual Global Energy Trends publication for 2016. The full report presents in-depth information on the energy markets as well as upcoming trends for all energies in the G20. With over 400 premium sources, Enerdata analysts highlight major developments in 2015 concerning global demand, supply and key indicators across the globe. The main trends outlined in the report are: - Economic slowdown: the lowest growth since 2002; - Almost no growth in energy consumption; - New decrease of energy intensity; - Stabilization of CO 2 -energy emissions; - INDC targets achievement requires a double breakthrough. The Global Energy Trends Analysis also provides additional graphs about trends by energy: - Coal: most consumed energy source in G20 countries; - Oil: fall in prices to around 40-50 US$/bbl; - Oil production: USA overtake Russia and catch up with Saudi Arabia; - Gas: Stabilisation of gas demand for the 2. consecutive year; - Electricity: Stagnation of electricity consumption; - Wind Power and Solar PV: Asia engine of development. Growth in energy consumption (%/year) for G20 countries: - Second consecutive year of decline: low growth and decrease in energy intensity; - India drives the energy consumption growth; - Near stagnation in China (after a first sharp slowdown in 2014); - Economic recession in Brazil and Russia; - USA: decrease primarily linked to the industrial sector (energy efficiency + less energy-intensive industry); - Rebound in Europe: economic growth + climate effect 2015/2014

  13. Methane emission from global livestock sector during 1890-2014: Magnitude, trends and spatiotemporal patterns.

    Dangal, Shree R S; Tian, Hanqin; Zhang, Bowen; Pan, Shufen; Lu, Chaoqun; Yang, Jia

    2017-10-01

    Human demand for livestock products has increased rapidly during the past few decades largely due to dietary transition and population growth, with significant impact on climate and the environment. The contribution of ruminant livestock to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has been investigated extensively at various scales from regional to global, but the long-term trend, regional variation and drivers of methane (CH 4 ) emission remain unclear. In this study, we use Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier II guidelines to quantify the evolution of CH 4 emissions from ruminant livestock during 1890-2014. We estimate that total CH 4 emissions in 2014 was 97.1 million tonnes (MT) CH 4 or 2.72 Gigatonnes (Gt) CO 2 -eq (1 MT = 10 12 g, 1 Gt = 10 15 g) from ruminant livestock, which accounted for 47%-54% of all non-CO 2 GHG emissions from the agricultural sector. Our estimate shows that CH 4 emissions from the ruminant livestock had increased by 332% (73.6 MT CH 4 or 2.06 Gt CO 2 -eq) since the 1890s. Our results further indicate that livestock sector in drylands had 36% higher emission intensity (CH 4 emissions/km 2 ) compared to that in nondrylands in 2014, due to the combined effect of higher rate of increase in livestock population and low feed quality. We also find that the contribution of developing regions (Africa, Asia and Latin America) to the total CH 4 emissions had increased from 51.7% in the 1890s to 72.5% in the 2010s. These changes were driven by increases in livestock numbers (LU units) by up to 121% in developing regions, but decreases in livestock numbers and emission intensity (emission/km 2 ) by up to 47% and 32%, respectively, in developed regions. Our results indicate that future increases in livestock production would likely contribute to higher CH 4 emissions, unless effective strategies to mitigate GHG emissions in livestock system are implemented. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Trends and inter-annual variability of methane emissions derived from 1979-1993 global CTM simulations

    F. Dentener

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The trend and interannual variability of methane sources are derived from multi-annual simulations of tropospheric photochemistry using a 3-D global chemistry-transport model. Our semi-inverse analysis uses the fifteen years (1979--1993 re-analysis of ECMWF meteorological data and annually varying emissions including photo-chemistry, in conjunction with observed CH4 concentration distributions and trends derived from the NOAA-CMDL surface stations. Dividing the world in four zonal regions (45--90 N, 0--45 N, 0--45 S, 45--90 S we find good agreement in each region between (top-down calculated emission trends from model simulations and (bottom-up estimated anthropogenic emission trends based on the EDGAR global anthropogenic emission database, which amounts for the period 1979--1993 2.7 Tg CH4 yr-1. Also the top-down determined total global methane emission compares well with the total of the bottom-up estimates. We use the difference between the bottom-up and top-down determined emission trends to calculate residual emissions. These residual emissions represent the inter-annual variability of the methane emissions. Simulations have been performed in which the year-to-year meteorology, the emissions of ozone precursor gases, and the stratospheric ozone column distribution are either varied, or kept constant. In studies of methane trends it is most important to include the trends and variability of the oxidant fields. The analyses reveals that the variability of the emissions is of the order of 8Tg CH4 yr-1, and likely related to wetland emissions and/or biomass burning.

  15. Sector trends and driving forces of global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions: focus in industry and buildings

    Price, Lynn; Worrell, Ernst; Khrushch, Marta

    1999-09-01

    Disaggregation of sectoral energy use and greenhouse gas emissions trends reveals striking differences between sectors and regions of the world. Understanding key driving forces in the energy end-use sectors provides insights for development of projections of future greenhouse gas emissions. This report examines global and regional historical trends in energy use and carbon emissions in the industrial, buildings, transport, and agriculture sectors, with a more detailed focus on industry and buildings. Activity and economic drivers as well as trends in energy and carbon intensity are evaluated. The authors show that macro-economic indicators, such as GDP, are insufficient for comprehending trends and driving forces at the sectoral level. These indicators need to be supplemented with sector-specific information for a more complete understanding of future energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.

  16. Sector trends and driving forces of global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions: focus in industry and buildings

    Price, Lynn; Worrell, Ernst; Khrushch, Marta

    1999-01-01

    Disaggregation of sectoral energy use and greenhouse gas emissions trends reveals striking differences between sectors and regions of the world. Understanding key driving forces in the energy end-use sectors provides insights for development of projections of future greenhouse gas emissions. This report examines global and regional historical trends in energy use and carbon emissions in the industrial, buildings, transport, and agriculture sectors, with a more detailed focus on industry and buildings. Activity and economic drivers as well as trends in energy and carbon intensity are evaluated. The authors show that macro-economic indicators, such as GDP, are insufficient for comprehending trends and driving forces at the sectoral level. These indicators need to be supplemented with sector-specific information for a more complete understanding of future energy use and greenhouse gas emissions

  17. Trend analysis from 1970 to 2008 and model evaluation of EDGARv4 global gridded anthropogenic mercury emissions

    Muntean, Marilena, E-mail: marilena.muntean@jrc.ec.europa.eu [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (Italy); Janssens-Maenhout, Greet [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (Italy); Song, Shaojie; Selin, Noelle E. [Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA (United States); Olivier, Jos G.J. [PBL Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Guizzardi, Diego [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (Italy); Maas, Rob [RIVM National Institute for Public Health and Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Dentener, Frank [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (Italy)

    2014-10-01

    model can generally reproduce both spatial variations and long-term trends in total gaseous mercury concentrations and wet deposition fluxes. - Highlights: • A global mercury emission inventory over the past four decades was established. • The inventory was at the lower range of the UNEP Minamata estimates. • The inventory was evaluated using a global 3-D mercury model GEOS-Chem. • The model reproduced spatial variations and long-term trends.

  18. Trend analysis from 1970 to 2008 and model evaluation of EDGARv4 global gridded anthropogenic mercury emissions

    Muntean, Marilena; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Song, Shaojie; Selin, Noelle E.; Olivier, Jos G.J.; Guizzardi, Diego; Maas, Rob; Dentener, Frank

    2014-01-01

    generally reproduce both spatial variations and long-term trends in total gaseous mercury concentrations and wet deposition fluxes. - Highlights: • A global mercury emission inventory over the past four decades was established. • The inventory was at the lower range of the UNEP Minamata estimates. • The inventory was evaluated using a global 3-D mercury model GEOS-Chem. • The model reproduced spatial variations and long-term trends

  19. Current and future trends in global landfill gas generation and emissions

    Meadows, M.; Franklin, C.; Campbell, D.

    1996-01-01

    This paper assesses the magnitude and distribution of current and future methane generation and emissions from landfill on a world-wide basis. It also estimates the current and future global potential for energy recovery from landfill methane. The mass of methane emitted from land disposal of wastes in any country depends on the waste management strategy of that country. In turn, the waste management strategy of a country depends on its population size, relative proportion living in rural or urban regions and the economic development of the country. We estimate by 2010 there will be a large increase in global methane emissions from solid wastes disposed on land. This increase will be largely from developing regions of the world. The main factor driving this increase is a population shift from rural to urban areas, particularly in regions of highest population, i.e. China and India. This will lead to a greater concentration of waste generation, in turn leading to increased disposal of wastes in deeper sites. In addition increased industrialisation and improved standard of living in regions of high population, will increase the mass of waste disposed of per person and the degradable carbon content of the waste, i.e. the waste will become more like waste from developed countries. In contrast, methane emissions from waste disposed on land in developed countries is likely to decrease by 2010, mainly as result of increased collection and combustion of landfill methane. (Author)

  20. Global Energy Trends - 2016 edition

    2016-01-01

    Based on its 2015 data for G20 countries, Enerdata analyses the trends of the world energy markets. The full report presents in-depth information on the energy markets as well as upcoming trends for all energies in the G20. With over 400 premium sources, Enerdata analysts highlight major developments in 2015 concerning global demand, supply and key indicators across the globe. Key Points: 2.8%: The weakest economic growth since 2002: If the economic activity of OECD countries improved slightly (USA, EU...), that of non - OECD countries slowed down, particularly in China, and with some even declining (Brazil and Russia). +0.5%: Near stagnation of energy consumption: As with last year, 2015 saw weak growth in energy consumption for G20 countries (10.8 Gtoe, or +0.5%, while the 10-year average exceeds 2%). Within the OECD, consumption declined slightly. In non-OECD countries, the evolution becomes historic with an increase limited to 1.3%, compared to a 10-year average of 5%. Besides the direct impact of the economic downturn mentioned above, this result comes largely from China where the near stagnation of energy consumption confirms a trend beginning in 2014 towards a less energy-intensive economy. 0: Stability of CO_2 emissions - cyclical or structural?: After the surprising slowdown in 2014, 2015 also saw a stable level of CO_2 -energy emissions (27 GtCO_2). A direct result from the stagnation in energy consumption, this figure also results from a slight modification in the power mix, in particular from the decline in coal consumption (China, USA..). -3 %: Decrease in the carbon intensity of the economy: In 2015 we acknowledge a 3% decrease in carbon intensity compared to an historical average of -1.5%/year; this progress comes from a decrease in China (stability of energy consumption and decrease of coal share in the mix) and in the USA (more gas, less coal). A trend still far away from climate change targets set at the COP21: On the climate side, the stagnation

  1. Global trends 1

    Anon.

    2001-01-01

    The main reason for climate change is the increase in the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The main reasons for this increase are the burning of fossil fuels, certain farming practices and deforestation. The burning of fossil fuels is a major factor. The high carbon dioxide emissions per person of Australia and the USA are noted and some of the consequences of the increase in temperature are indicated. Graphs and maps highlight the world's disappearing forests, the ecological footprint of selected countries, the increase in carbon dioxide levels over the centuries, the way in which world temperatures are rising, the increase in the height of the oceans, lowest annual ozone levels and the worst countries in terms of carbon dioxide emissions

  2. Global scenarios and trends

    2011-01-01

    The 21st century brings with it a number of disturbing challenges. They may even threaten to disrupt world order. Many agree the most critical and urgent challenge of all confronting human kind today is climate change. Global warming has reached a level which can trigger drastic shifts in world weather. There is convincing evidence to show that global warming is significantly attributed to mans own activities. If man is responsible for the warming of the planet, then only man can help stop global warming. Only man can reverse climate change. Climate change has the power to literally destruct the world. The adverse effects of global climate change are increasingly evident from the frequency and ferocity of natural disasters like the recent severe drought and flood in Queensland, Australia; the prolonged drought in East Africa; the destructive typhoon Nargis in Myanmar; the terrifying hurricane Katrina which brought New Orleans to its knees; the disastrous Mississippi flood and killer cyclones in USA and the out of season drought and flood in the Yangtze river basin. The list does not end there. Dr. R. K. Pachauri, Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in his lecture on 28 April 2011 at UNITEN, entitled Fukushima, Energy and Climate Change reaffirmed that the warming of the earths climate system is unequivocal. That climate change is mans common enemy is no longer in doubt. This is the reason why many see climate change as the single most important driver of the expanding global interest in green technology and a low carbon economy. (author)

  3. Trends in onroad transportation energy and emissions.

    Frey, H Christopher

    2018-06-01

    Globally, 1.3 billion on-road vehicles consume 79 quadrillion BTU of energy, mostly gasoline and diesel fuels, emit 5.7 gigatonnes of CO 2 , and emit other pollutants to which approximately 200,000 annual premature deaths are attributed. Improved vehicle energy efficiency and emission controls have helped offset growth in vehicle activity. New technologies are diffusing into the vehicle fleet in response to fuel efficiency and emission standards. Empirical assessment of vehicle emissions is challenging because of myriad fuels and technologies, intervehicle variability, multiple emission processes, variability in operating conditions, and varying capabilities of measurement methods. Fuel economy and emissions regulations have been effective in reducing total emissions of key pollutants. Real-world fuel use and emissions are consistent with official values in the United States but not in Europe or countries that adopt European standards. Portable emission measurements systems, which uncovered a recent emissions cheating scandal, have a key role in regulatory programs to ensure conformity between "real driving emissions" and emission standards. The global vehicle fleet will experience tremendous growth, especially in Asia. Although existing data and modeling tools are useful, they are often based on convenience samples, small sample sizes, large variability, and unquantified uncertainty. Vehicles emit precursors to several important secondary pollutants, including ozone and secondary organic aerosols, which requires a multipollutant emissions and air quality management strategy. Gasoline and diesel are likely to persist as key energy sources to mid-century. Adoption of electric vehicles is not a panacea with regard to greenhouse gas emissions unless coupled with policies to change the power generation mix. Depending on how they are actually implemented and used, autonomous vehicles could lead to very large reductions or increases in energy consumption. Numerous other

  4. Global Trends in Workplace Learning

    Lee, Lung-Sheng; Lai, Chun-Chin

    2012-01-01

    The paradigm of human resource development has shifted to workplace learning and performance. Workplace can be an organization, an office, a kitchen, a shop, a farm, a website, even a home. Workplace learning is a dynamic process to solve workplace problems through learning. An identification of global trends of workplace learning can help us to…

  5. Global emissions inventories

    Dignon, J.

    1995-07-01

    Atmospheric chemistry determines the concentrations of most of the important greenhouse gases except for carbon dioxide. The rate of removal of the greenhouse gases from the atmosphere is also controlled by atmospheric chemistry. The indirect effects of chemical forcing resulting from the chemical interactions of other species can also affect the concentrations of radiatively important gases such as ozone. In order to establish the contribution of any possible climatic change attributable to individual greenhouse gases, spatially and temporally resolved estimates of their emissions need to be established. Unfortunately, for most of the radiatively important species the global magnitudes of their individual fluxes are not known to better than a factor of two and their spatial distributions are even more poorly characterized. Efforts to estimate future projections of potential impacts and to monitor international agreements will require continued research to narrow the uncertainties of magnitude and geographical distribution of emissions

  6. GLOBAL TRENDS OF ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

    Ivan LUCHIAN

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available An alternative investment is an investment product other than the traditional investments of stocks, bonds, cash, or property. The term is a relatively loose one and includes tangible assets such as art, wine, antiques, coins, or stamps and some financial assets such as commodities, hedge funds, venture capital,and others. At the moment it was created a global industry opportunities for making investments in nontraditional form. The aim of this paper consists in demonstrating the possibilities of these investments. For this have been studied related main international markets, a fter then deducted world dominant trends. This article is concerned to present some details of alternative investments global market.

  7. Future trends in global blindness

    Serge Resnikoff

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this review is to discuss the available data on the prevalence and causes of global blindness, and some of the associated trends and limitations seen. A literature search was conducted using the terms "global AND blindness" and "global AND vision AND impairment", resulting in seven appropriate articles for this review. Since 1990 the estimate of global prevalence of blindness has gradually decreased when considering the best corrected visual acuity definition: 0.71% in 1990, 0.59% in 2002, and 0.55% in 2010, corresponding to a 0.73% reduction per year over the 2002-2010 period. Significant limitations were found in the comparability between the global estimates in prevalence or causes of blindness or visual impairment. These limitations arise from various factors such as uncertainties about the true cause of the impairment, the use of different definitions and methods, and the absence of data from a number of geographical areas, leading to various extrapolation methods, which in turn seriously limit comparability. Seminal to this discussion on limitations in the comparability of studies and data, is that blindness has historically been defined using best corrected visual acuity.

  8. Global energy and technology trends

    Rogner, Hans-Holger

    2008-01-01

    from the world's nuclear power reactors has continued to climb steadily, although the amount of new nuclear capacity coming on line each year has dropped substanially since its peak in 1980s. Looking ahead to nuclear power's prospects in the new century, four features stand out: (1) new nuclear power plants are not being built fast enough to maintain nuclear power's 16% share of global electricity generation; (2) current expansion, as well as near-term and long term growth prospects, are centered in Asia; (3) but 2002 also saw some signs of revitalized growth in Western Europe and North america, where growth has stagnated because of economics, market liberalization, and excess capacity; (4) long-term projections for nuclear power, particularly in the event of international agreement to significantly limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, are more bullish than near term trends. The key determining factor will be economics. In considering how to meet the world's growing need for enegy, it is important to recognize that each country is unique in itself and that every country uses a mix of energy supplies because: (1) different technologies are needed to meet diferent needs, e.g. for baseload power in contrast to peak power, or for meeting concentrated demand in megacities in contrast to that required by small users in remote areas; (2) evolution of the energy supply is uneven, and new technologies replace older ones in fits and starts and with overlaps; (3) different investors choose different technologies based on different requirements and perceptions about profitability and risk; (4) fast growing countries like China may need to expand all energy sources simultaneously just to keep up with growing demand. Moreover, the right mix for each country depends partly on how fast a country's energy demand is growing; on the country's energy resources and alternatives; on the available financing options and whether the investment is in a deregulated market that values rapid

  9. Mercury Emissions: The Global Context

    Mercury emissions are a global problem that knows no national or continental boundaries. Mercury that is emitted to the air can travel thousands of miles in the atmosphere before it is eventually deposited back to the earth.

  10. International nurse migrations: Global trends

    Ivković Marija

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents global trends of migration of nurses, as specific qualified personnel in high demand. In the last couple of decades, and especially in the last couple of years, many countries have faced the problem of insufficient healthcare workers, particularly nurses. Reasons for this occurrence might be found in the deficiencies of their education systems, as well as the population aging of northern and western countries. As a response to this deficiency, those countries have begun intensive recruitment of foreign qualified female healthcare workers, which has led to the point that nurse migration today presents a very intense, and by many accounts specific migration flow. Female migrating work force is often in pursuit of low-wage and lowqualified work. Nurse migration is actually an example of motion of qualified female migrants in pursuit for better employment opportunities. While such a way of filling up the vacant positions works for the “importing” countries as a temporary solution, departure of trained female personnel presents a significant loss for the originating countries. In this paper we pay special attention to the countries who are the main “importers”, but also to those who are “exporters” of nursing personnel, and to specific national strategies these countries have applied.

  11. Global Inverse Modeling of CH4 and δ13C-CH4 Measurements to Understand Recent Trends in Methane Emissions

    Karmakar, S.; Butenhoff, C. L.; Rice, A. L.; Khalil, A. K.

    2017-12-01

    Methane (CH4) is the second most important greenhouse gas with a radiative forcing of 0.97 W/m2 including both direct and indirect effects and a global warming potential of 28 over a 100-year time horizon. After a decades-long period of decline beginning in the 1980s, the methane growth rate rebounded in 2007 for reasons that are of current debate. During this same growth period atmospheric methane became less enriched in the 13CH4 isotope suggesting the recent CH4 growth was caused by an increase in 13CH4-depleted biogenic emissions. Recent papers have attributed this growth to increasing emissions from wetlands, rice agriculture, and ruminants. In this work we provide additional insight into the recent behavior of atmospheric methane and global wetland emissions by performing a three-dimensional Bayesian inversion of surface CH4 and 13CH4/12CH4 ratios using NOAA Global Monitoring Division (GMD) "event-level" CH4 measurements and the GEOS-Chem chemical-transport model (CTM) at a horizontal grid resolution of 2ox2.5o. The spatial pattern of wetland emissions was prescribed using soil moisture and temperature from GEOS-5 meteorology fields and soil carbon pools from the Lund-Potsdam-Jena global vegetation model. In order to reduce the aggregation error caused by a potentially flawed distribution and to account for isotopic measurements that indicate northern high latitude wetlands are isotopically depleted in 13CH4 relative to tropical wetlands we separated our pattern into three latitudinal bands (90-30°N, 30°N-0, 0-90°S). Our preliminary results support previous claims that the recent increase in atmospheric methane is driven by increases in biogenic CH4 emissions. We find that while wetland emissions from northern high latitudes (90-30°N) remained relatively constant during this time, southern hemisphere wetland emissions rebounded from a decade-long decline and began to rise again in 2007 and have remained elevated to the present. Emissions from rice

  12. Grazing the Commons. Global Carbon Emissions Forever?

    Melenberg, B. [CentER and Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands); Vollebergh, H.R.J. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Dijkgraaf, E. [SEOR-ECRi and Tinbergen Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    2011-02-15

    This paper presents the results from our investigation of the per-capita, long-term relation between carbon dioxide emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for the world, obtained with the use of a new, flexible estimator. Consistent with simple economic growth models, we find that regional, population-weighted per-capita emissions systematically increase with income (scale effect) and usually decline over time (composition and technology effect). Both our in-sample results and out-of-sample scenarios indicate that this negative time effect is unlikely to compensate for the upward-income effect at a global level, in the near future. In particular, even if China's specialization in carbon-intensive industrial sectors would come to a halt, recent trends outside China make a reversal of the overall global trend very unlikely.

  13. European air quality in the 2030's and 2050's: Impacts of global and regional emission trends and of climate change

    Lacressonniere, G.; Peuch, V.H.; Vautard, R.

    2014-01-01

    A chemistry-transport model using two-way nested regional (Europe) and global domains is used to evaluate the effects of climate and emission changes on air quality over Europe for the 2030's and 2050's, by comparison with the emissions and climate of the recent past. We investigated the pollutant levels under the implementations of reduced anthropogenic emissions (NOx, SO 2 , etc) over Europe and, at the global scale, under the Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP8.5) scenario produced by the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of IPCC. The simulations show an increase in surface ozone in northwestern Europe and a decrease in southern areas in the future horizons studied here. Over Europe, average O 3 levels steadily increase with a rate of around 3 mg m 3 per decade in summer. For this pollutant, the contributions of long range transport over the Northern Hemisphere and climate changes have been assessed and appear to counterbalance and even slightly outweigh the effects of European reductions in precursors' anthropogenic emissions. The tropospheric ozone budget is found to be dominated by enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchanges in future climate while the chemical budget is significantly reduced. Our results show that a NOx-limited chemical regime will stretch over most of Europe, including especially Western France in the future. These findings allow supporting efficient future precursor emissions abatement strategies in order to limit O 3 pollution and maintain or improve air quality standards in Europe. (authors)

  14. Key Trends Shaping the Global Logistics Environment

    Handfield, Robert; Straube, Frank; Pfohl, Hans-Christian

    A summary from the full study “Trends and Strategies in Logistics and Supply Chain Management. Embracing Global Logistics Complexity to Drive Market Advantage” (2013).......A summary from the full study “Trends and Strategies in Logistics and Supply Chain Management. Embracing Global Logistics Complexity to Drive Market Advantage” (2013)....

  15. Aquaculture: global status and trends

    Bostock, John; McAndrew, Brendan; Richards, Randolph; Jauncey, Kim; Telfer, Trevor; Lorenzen, Kai; Little, David; Ross, Lindsay; Handisyde, Neil; Gatward, Iain; Corner, Richard

    2010-01-01

    Aquaculture contributed 43 per cent of aquatic animal food for human consumption in 2007 (e.g. fish, crustaceans and molluscs, but excluding mammals, reptiles and aquatic plants) and is expected to grow further to meet the future demand. It is very diverse and, contrary to many perceptions, dominated by shellfish and herbivorous and omnivorous pond fish either entirely or partly utilizing natural productivity. The rapid growth in the production of carnivorous species such as salmon, shrimp and catfish has been driven by globalizing trade and favourable economics of larger scale intensive farming. Most aquaculture systems rely on low/uncosted environmental goods and services, so a critical issue for the future is whether these are brought into company accounts and the consequent effects this would have on production economics. Failing that, increased competition for natural resources will force governments to allocate strategically or leave the market to determine their use depending on activities that can extract the highest value. Further uncertainties include the impact of climate change, future fisheries supplies (for competition and feed supply), practical limits in terms of scale and in the economics of integration and the development and acceptability of new bio-engineering technologies. In the medium term, increased output is likely to require expansion in new environments, further intensification and efficiency gains for more sustainable and cost-effective production. The trend towards enhanced intensive systems with key monocultures remains strong and, at least for the foreseeable future, will be a significant contributor to future supplies. Dependence on external feeds (including fish), water and energy are key issues. Some new species will enter production and policies that support the reduction of resource footprints and improve integration could lead to new developments as well as reversing decline in some more traditional systems. PMID:20713392

  16. Aquaculture: global status and trends.

    Bostock, John; McAndrew, Brendan; Richards, Randolph; Jauncey, Kim; Telfer, Trevor; Lorenzen, Kai; Little, David; Ross, Lindsay; Handisyde, Neil; Gatward, Iain; Corner, Richard

    2010-09-27

    Aquaculture contributed 43 per cent of aquatic animal food for human consumption in 2007 (e.g. fish, crustaceans and molluscs, but excluding mammals, reptiles and aquatic plants) and is expected to grow further to meet the future demand. It is very diverse and, contrary to many perceptions, dominated by shellfish and herbivorous and omnivorous pond fish either entirely or partly utilizing natural productivity. The rapid growth in the production of carnivorous species such as salmon, shrimp and catfish has been driven by globalizing trade and favourable economics of larger scale intensive farming. Most aquaculture systems rely on low/uncosted environmental goods and services, so a critical issue for the future is whether these are brought into company accounts and the consequent effects this would have on production economics. Failing that, increased competition for natural resources will force governments to allocate strategically or leave the market to determine their use depending on activities that can extract the highest value. Further uncertainties include the impact of climate change, future fisheries supplies (for competition and feed supply), practical limits in terms of scale and in the economics of integration and the development and acceptability of new bio-engineering technologies. In the medium term, increased output is likely to require expansion in new environments, further intensification and efficiency gains for more sustainable and cost-effective production. The trend towards enhanced intensive systems with key monocultures remains strong and, at least for the foreseeable future, will be a significant contributor to future supplies. Dependence on external feeds (including fish), water and energy are key issues. Some new species will enter production and policies that support the reduction of resource footprints and improve integration could lead to new developments as well as reversing decline in some more traditional systems.

  17. Trends in Global Gender Inequality

    Dorius, Shawn F.; Firebaugh, Glenn

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates trends in gender inequality throughout the world. Using data encompassing a large majority of the world's population, we examine trends in recent decades for key indicators of gender inequality in education, mortality, political representation and economic activity. We find that gender inequality is declining in virtually…

  18. Alberta air emissions : trends and projections

    2008-06-01

    This paper provided a summary of air emissions trends and projections for Alberta. Predicted regional distribution trends and industry sector emissions were presented. Historical and projected emissions included sulfur oxides (SO x ) nitrogen oxide (NO x ), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and ammonia (NH 3 ). Results of the study indicated that carbon monoxide (CO) emissions were decreasing, while VOCs, NO x , SO x , PM 2.5 and NH 3 levels were increasing. Approximately 9 per cent of ammonia emissions were from point sources, while the majority of PM 2.5 emissions were attributed to unpaved roads and construction operations. Agricultural animal operations accounted for most of the VOC source emissions in the region. Increased development of the oil sands industry is contributing to increases in VOC emissions. Increases in NH 3 were attributed to growth in the agricultural sector and the increasing use of confined feeding operations in the region. Results of the study indicated that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Alberta will keep increasing as a result of Alberta's growing economy. It was concluded that emissions from other industrial sectors are also expected to increase. In 2005, Alberta's total GHG emissions were 233 megatonnes of CO 2 equivalent, of which 168 megatonnes were attributed to industry. Results were presented in both graph and tabular formats. 3 tabs., 25 figs

  19. Emissions Trading: Trends and Prospects

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    This paper provides the latest developments of announced, proposed and existing greenhouse gas emissions trading schemes (ETS) around the world since 2006. It also examines different potential design options for ETS (e.g. coverage, allocation mode, provision for offsets), and how these options are treated in the existing, announced or proposed schemes.

  20. Global fertility and population trends.

    Bongaarts, John

    2015-01-01

    Over the past several decades, the world and most countries have undergone unprecedented demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the rise in human numbers, and there are also important trends in fertility, family structure, mortality, migration, urbanization, and population aging. This paper summarizes past trends and projections in fertility and population. After reaching 2.5 billion in 1950, the world population grew rapidly to 7.2 billion in 2013 and the projections expect this total to be 10.9 billion by 2100. World regions differ widely in their demographic trends, with rapid population growth and high fertility continuing in the poorest countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, while population decline, population aging, and very low fertility are now a key concern in many developed countries. These trends have important implications for human welfare and are of interest to policy makers. The conclusion comments briefly on policy options to address these adverse trends. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  1. Global trends in radiation processing

    Defalco, G.

    2003-01-01

    There will be a brief introduction of the companies of MDS serving the Medical, Biotechnology and Pharmaceutical sectors worldwide. MDS Nordion will be introduced in more detail focused on the products and services of our Nuclear Medicine and Ion Technologies business units. World Trends and issues in Radiation Processing will be discussed on: Sterilization of Medical Devices, Pharmaceuticals, Cosmetics and Consumer products and finally I will present an overview on Food Irradiation progress worldwide

  2. Global Trends in Mercury Management

    Choi, Kyunghee

    2012-01-01

    The United Nations Environmental Program Governing Council has regulated mercury as a global pollutant since 2001 and has been preparing the mercury convention, which will have a strongly binding force through Global Mercury Assessment, Global Mercury Partnership Activities, and establishment of the Open-Ended Working Group on Mercury. The European Union maintains an inclusive strategy on risks and contamination of mercury, and has executed the Mercury Export Ban Act since December in 2010. The US Environmental Protection Agency established the Mercury Action Plan (1998) and the Mercury Roadmap (2006) and has proposed systematic mercury management methods to reduce the health risks posed by mercury exposure. Japan, which experienced Minamata disease, aims vigorously at perfection in mercury management in several ways. In Korea, the Ministry of Environment established the Comprehensive Plan and Countermeasures for Mercury Management to prepare for the mercury convention and to reduce risks of mercury to protect public health. PMID:23230466

  3. Global Trends in Academic Governance

    Cummings, William K.; Finkelstein, Martin

    2009-01-01

    Even before the current global economic crisis, discontent with the governance of higher education institutions was widespread among faculty in the United States and throughout the world. Drawing from the 2007 Changing Academic Profession (CAP) survey of faculty in seventeen countries, the authors examine faculty perceptions of the current state…

  4. DEVELOPMENT TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL DENTAL MARKET

    Veronica BULAT

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses the key trends of the market, and segments the global dental equipment and consumables market by components and into various geographic regions in way of market size. It discusses the key market drivers, main players, restraints and opportunities of the global dental equipment and consumables market.

  5. Global trends on local grounds

    Steensen, Jette Johanne

    2006-01-01

    Collection of papers produced by tutors involved in a master´s degree course for teacher in Ethiopia offers an important challenge to the dominant neo-liberal agenda that has taken over educational reform throughtout the world. The project was based on the practice of critical practitioner inquiry...... and built upon similar efforts in Namibia in the 1990s. Steensen´s contribution stresses that any educational system will have to lie firmly on local grounds, that international trends must be analysed strategically as well as critically and that such analysis, for example through Critical Practitioner...

  6. Global interpersonal inequality: Trends and measurement

    Niño-Zarazúa, Miguel; Roope, Laurence; Tarp, Finn

    This paper discusses different approaches to the measurement of global interpersonal in equality. Trends in global interpersonal inequality during 1975-2005 are measured using data from UNU-WIDER’s World Income Inequality Database. In order to better understand the trends, global interpersonal...... inequality is decomposed into within-country and between-country inequality. The paper illustrates that the relationship between global interpersonal inequality and these constituent components is a complex one. In particular, we demonstrate that the changes in China’s and India’s income distributions over...... the past 30 years have simultaneously caused inequality to rise domestically in those countries, while tending to reduce global inter-personal inequality. In light of these findings, we reflect on the meaning and policy relevance of global vis-à-vis domestic inequality measures...

  7. Global trends in radiation processing

    Defalco, Gerry

    2002-01-01

    A global leader in radioisotope technology with three business units: - Nuclear Medicine supplies about two-thirds of the world requirements for molybdenum-99 and other isotopes used to diagnose disease - Radiation Therapy business unit supplied more than over 2,300 cobalt cancer treatment machines and is a leader in treatment planning - Ion Technologies is the world's leading supplier of cobalt 60 and innovative gamma irradiation systems About Ion Technologies · Supply over 70% of world's cobalt-60 sources · Custom-designed and built irradiation systems · Comprehensive engineering, physics, logistics, installation and marketing services · Canadian Irradiation Center for unique 'hands on' training, R and D product irradiation

  8. Greenhouse gas emissions increase global warming

    Mohajan, Haradhan

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses the greenhouse gas emissions which cause the global warming in the atmosphere. In the 20th century global climate change becomes more sever which is due to greenhouse gas emissions. According to International Energy Agency data, the USA and China are approximately tied and leading global emitters of greenhouse gas emissions. Together they emit approximately 40% of global CO2 emissions, and about 35% of total greenhouse gases. The developed and developing industrialized co...

  9. Emission allowances -- Long-term price trend

    Lennox, F.H.

    1994-01-01

    Estimated trends in emission allowance (EA) values have been of interest to all those affected by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 since it became law in 1990. The authors published estimates of the values of EAs in December 1991, and revised their estimate in November 1992. The summary trends of the 1992 estimate is shown here. General estimates such as these are no longer useful. Everyone directly involved in complying with the Act or in buying and selling allowances has developed their own outlook on EA values. Many recent trades have been publicized. The prices from the first auction are also well known. Therefore this article is concerned only with what might happening the long-run. Once Phase 2 compliance is essentially complete and emissions roughly match Emission Allowance allocations of some 9.8 million tons annually, what pressures will there be on prices? What will be the direction of values after Phase 2 is in balance?

  10. Seasonal trends of biogenic terpene emissions.

    Helmig, Detlev; Daly, Ryan Woodfin; Milford, Jana; Guenther, Alex

    2013-09-01

    Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions from six coniferous tree species, i.e. Pinus ponderosa (Ponderosa Pine), Picea pungens (Blue Spruce), Pseudotsuga menziesii (Rocky Mountain Douglas Fir) and Pinus longaeva (Bristlecone Pine), as well as from two deciduous species, Quercus gambelii (Gamble Oak) and Betula occidentalis (Western River Birch) were studied over a full annual growing cycle. Monoterpene (MT) and sesquiterpene (SQT) emissions rates were quantified in a total of 1236 individual branch enclosure samples. MT dominated coniferous emissions, producing greater than 95% of BVOC emissions. MT and SQT demonstrated short-term emission dependence with temperature. Two oxygenated MT, 1,8-cineol and piperitone, were both light and temperature dependent. Basal emission rates (BER, normalized to 1000μmolm(-2)s(-1) and 30°C) were generally higher in spring and summer than in winter; MT seasonal BER from the coniferous trees maximized between 1.5 and 6.0μgg(-1)h(-1), while seasonal lows were near 0.1μgg(-1)h(-1). The fractional contribution of individual MT to total emissions was found to fluctuate with season. SQT BER measured from the coniferous trees ranged from emissions modeling, was not found to exhibit discernible growth season trends. A seasonal correction factor proposed by others in previous work to account for a sinusoidal shaped emission pattern was applied to the data. Varying levels of agreement were found between the data and model results for the different plant species seasonal data sets using this correction. Consequently, the analyses on this extensive data set suggest that it is not feasible to apply a universal seasonal correction factor across different vegetation species. A modeling exercise comparing two case scenarios, (1) without and (2) with consideration of the seasonal changes in emission factors illustrated large deviations when emission factors are applied for other seasons than those in which they were experimentally

  11. Global CO{sub 2} emissions 2015. Trend reversion is still waiting, despite hopeful approaches; Weltweite CO{sub 2}-Emissionen 2015. Trendwende laesst trotz hoffnungsvoller Ansaetze nach wie vor auf sich warten

    Ziesing, Hans-Joachim

    2016-10-15

    By 2015, global CO{sub 2} emissions were virtually unchanged from 2014 according to provisional calculations. On the whole, a slight increase may have resulted, which has slowed the growth of the past few years. In the previous year alone, the weakest growth since the beginning of the century had been recorded, with only 0.7% of the upturn (with the exception of the crises in 2008/2009). As a result, CO{sub 2} emissions in 2015 were only slightly higher than in the previous year, at 33.1 billion tonnes. A global trend reversal is still likely, but the CO{sub 2} emissions have declined in many countries, particularly in some industrialized countries. [German] Im Jahr 2015 haben sich die weltweiten CO{sub 2}-Emissionen nach vorlaeufigen Berechnungen gegenueber 2014 praktisch nicht veraendert. Insgesamt duerfte sich allenfalls ein leichtes Plus ergeben haben, womit der Zuwachs der vergangenen Jahre erneut gebremst wurde. Schon im Vorjahr war mit einem Plus von nur 0,7 % der bis dahin (mit Ausnahme der Krisenjahre 2008/2009) schwaechste Anstieg seit Beginn des Jahrhunderts zu verzeichnen gewesen. Im Ergebnis blieben die CO{sub 2}-Emissionen 2015 mit reichlich 33,1 Mrd. t nur geringfuegig ueber dem Niveau des Vorjahres. Eine weltweite Trendwende steht wohl noch nach wie vor aus, doch sind immerhin die CO{sub 2}-Emissionen in zahlreichen Laendern, insbesondere in etlichen Industrielaendern, gesunken.

  12. Digital Library Education: Global Trends and Issues

    Shem, Magaji

    2015-01-01

    The paper examines trends and issues in digital education programmes globally, drawing examples of developmental growth of Library Information Science (LIS), schools and digital education courses in North America, Britain, and Southern Asia, the slow growth of LIS schools and digital education in Nigeria and some countries in Africa and India. The…

  13. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  14. TRENDS '90: A compendium of data on global change

    Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W. (eds.); Boden, T.A.; Kanciruk, P.; Farrell, M.P.

    1990-08-01

    This document is a source of frequently used global change data. This first issue includes estimates for global and national CO{sub 2} emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and from the production of cement, historical and modern records of atmospheric CO{sub 2} and methane concentrations, and several long-term temperature records. Included are tabular and graphical presentations of the data, discussions of trends in the data, and references to publications that provide further information. Data are presented in a two-page format, each dealing with a different data set. All data are available in digital form from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

  15. TRENDS 1991: A compendium of data on global change

    Boden, T.A.; Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W. (eds.)

    1991-12-01

    This document is a source of frequently used global-change data. This second issue of the Trends series expands the coverage of sites recording atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and methane (CH{sub 4}), and it updates records reported in the first issue. New data for other trace atmospheric gases have been included in this issue; historical data on nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}) from ice cores, modern records of atmospheric concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11 and CFC-12) and N{sub 2}O, and estimates of global estimates of CFC-11 and CFC-12. The estimates for global and national CO{sub 2} emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, the production of cement, and gas flaring have been revised and updated. Regional CO{sub 2} emission estimates have been added, and long-term temperature records have been updated and expanded. Data records are presented in four- to six-page formats, each dealing with a specific site, region, or emissions species. The data records include tables and graphs; discussion of methods for collecting, measuring, and reporting the data; trends in the data; and references to literature that provides further information. All data appearing in the document are available on digital media from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

  16. TRENDS 1991: A compendium of data on global change

    Boden, T.A.; Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W.

    1991-12-01

    This document is a source of frequently used global-change data. This second issue of the Trends series expands the coverage of sites recording atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ), and it updates records reported in the first issue. New data for other trace atmospheric gases have been included in this issue; historical data on nitrous oxide (N 2 ) from ice cores, modern records of atmospheric concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11 and CFC-12) and N 2 O, and estimates of global estimates of CFC-11 and CFC-12. The estimates for global and national CO 2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, the production of cement, and gas flaring have been revised and updated. Regional CO 2 emission estimates have been added, and long-term temperature records have been updated and expanded. Data records are presented in four- to six-page formats, each dealing with a specific site, region, or emissions species. The data records include tables and graphs; discussion of methods for collecting, measuring, and reporting the data; trends in the data; and references to literature that provides further information. All data appearing in the document are available on digital media from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center

  17. Global change integrating factors: Tropical tropopause trends

    Reck, R.A.

    1994-01-01

    This research proposes new criteria, shifts in the height and temperature of the tropical tropopause, as measures of global climate change. The search for signs of global warming in the temperature signal near the earth's surface is extremely difficult, largely because numerous factors contribute to surface temperature forcing with only a small signal-to-noise ratio relative to long-term effects. In the long term, no part of the atmosphere can be considered individually because the evolution will be a function of all states of all portions. A large surface greenhouse signal might ultimately be expected, but the analysis of surface temperature may not be particularly useful for early detection. What is suggested here is not an analysis of trends in the surface temperature field or any of its spatial averages, but rather an integrating factor or integrator, a single measure of global change that could be considered a test of significant change for the entire global system. Preferably, this global change integrator would vary slowly and would take into account many of the causes of climate change, with a relatively large signal-to-noise ratio. Such an integrator could be monitored, and abrupt or accelerated changes could serve as an early warning signal for policy makers and the public. Earlier work has suggested that temperature has much less short-term and small-scale noise in the lower stratosphere, and thus the global warming signal at that level might be more easily deconvoluted, because the cooling rate near the 200-mb level is almost constant with latitude. A study of the temperature signal at this pressure level might show a clearer trend due to increased levels of greenhouse gases, but it would yield information about the troposphere only by inference

  18. CO2 emission calculations and trends

    Boden, T.A.; Marland, G.; Andres, R.J.

    1995-01-01

    Evidence that the atmospheric CO 2 concentration has risen during the past several decades is irrefutable. Most of the observed increase in atmospheric CO 2 is believed to result from CO 2 releases from fossil-fuel burning. The United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), signed in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992, reflects global concern over the increasing CO 2 concentration and its potential impact on climate. One of the convention's stated objectives was the ''stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. '' Specifically, the FCCC asked all 154 signing countries to conduct an inventory of their current greenhouse gas emissions, and it set nonbinding targets for some countries to control emissions by stabilizing them at 1990 levels by the year 2000. Given the importance of CO 2 as a greenhouse gas, the relationship between CO 2 emissions and increases in atmospheric CO 2 levels, and the potential impacts of a greenhouse gas-induced climate change; it is important that comprehensive CO 2 emissions records be compiled, maintained, updated, and documented

  19. Global Trends in Space Access and Utilization

    Rahman, Shamim A.; Keim, Nicholas S.; Zeender, Peter E.

    2010-01-01

    In the not-so-distant past, space access and air/space technology superiority were within the purview of the U.S. and former Soviet Union's respective space agencies, both vying for global leadership in space exploitation. In more recent years, with the emergence of the European Space Agency (ESA) member countries and Asian countries joining the family of space-faring nations, it is truer now more than ever that space access and utilization has become a truly global enterprise. In fact, according to the Space Report 2007, this enterprise is a $251-billion economy. It is possible to gauge the vitality of worldwide efforts from open sources in today's transparent, media-based society. In particular, print and web broadcasters regularly report and catalog global space activities for defense and civil purposes. For the purposes of this paper, a representative catalog of missions is used to illustrate the nature of the emerging "globalization." This paper highlights global trends in terms of not only the providers of space access, but also the end-users for the various recently accomplished missions. With well over 50 launches per year, in recent years, the launch-log reveals a surprising percentage of "cooperative or co-dependent missions" where different agencies, countries, and/or commercial entities are so engaged presumably to the benefit of all who participate. Statistics are cited and used to show that recently over d0% of the 50-plus missions involved multiple nations working collectively to deliver payloads to orbit. Observers, space policy professionals, and space agency leaders have eloquently proposed that it might require the combined resources and talents of multiple nations to advance human exploration goals beyond low earth orbit. This paper does not intend to offer new information with respect to whether international collaboration is necessary but to observe that, in continuing to monitor global trends, the results seem to support the thesis that a

  20. HIV/AIDS: global trends, global funds and delivery bottlenecks

    Hadingham Jacqui

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Globalisation affects all facets of human life, including health and well being. The HIV/AIDS epidemic has highlighted the global nature of human health and welfare and globalisation has given rise to a trend toward finding common solutions to global health challenges. Numerous international funds have been set up in recent times to address global health challenges such as HIV. However, despite increasingly large amounts of funding for health initiatives being made available to poorer regions of the world, HIV infection rates and prevalence continue to increase world wide. As a result, the AIDS epidemic is expanding and intensifying globally. Worst affected are undoubtedly the poorer regions of the world as combinations of poverty, disease, famine, political and economic instability and weak health infrastructure exacerbate the severe and far-reaching impacts of the epidemic. One of the major reasons for the apparent ineffectiveness of global interventions is historical weaknesses in the health systems of underdeveloped countries, which contribute to bottlenecks in the distribution and utilisation of funds. Strengthening these health systems, although a vital component in addressing the global epidemic, must however be accompanied by mitigation of other determinants as well. These are intrinsically complex and include social and environmental factors, sexual behaviour, issues of human rights and biological factors, all of which contribute to HIV transmission, progression and mortality. An equally important factor is ensuring an equitable balance between prevention and treatment programmes in order to holistically address the challenges presented by the epidemic.

  1. Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from global agricultural production

    Bennetzen, Eskild Hohlmann; Smith, Pete; Porter, John Roy

    2016-01-01

    Since 1970 global agricultural production has more than doubled; contributing ~1/4 of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) burden in 2010. Food production must increase to feed our growing demands, but to address climate change, GHG emissions must decrease. Using an identity approach, we...... estimate and analyse past trends in GHG emission intensities from global agricultural production and land-use change and project potential future emissions. The novel Kaya-Porter identity framework deconstructs the entity of emissions from a mix of multiple sources of GHGs into attributable elements...... to increase food security whilst reducing emissions. The identity approach presented here could be used as a methodological framework for more holistic food systems analysis....

  2. Sources and trends of environmental mercury emissions in Asia

    Wong, Coby S.C.; Duzgoren-Aydin, Nurdan S.; Aydin, Adnan; Wong, Ming H.

    2006-01-01

    This paper focuses on environmental mercury emissions in Asia and elaborates its probable trend in the future and associated implications given the anticipated socioeconomic outlook and other macro-environmental factors. Among the various regions, Asia has become the largest contributor of anthropogenic atmospheric Hg, responsible for over half of the global emission. In the next few decades, a significant increase in anthropogenic Hg emissions in Asia is likely owing to rapid economic and industrial development, unless drastic measures are taken. In particular, the dominance of Asia in some Hg-emitting industries, such as coal combustion, steel production and gold mining, provokes a serious environmental concern over their potential contributions of incidental Hg in the region. Moreover, the increasing prevalence of electrical and electronic manufacturing industry as a user and a contributor of Hg in Asia is also worrying. Specifically, disposal of obsolete electrical and electronic wastes represents a phenomenon increasingly encountered in Asia. In addition to escalating anthropogenic Hg emissions in Asia, associated environmental and health implications may also exacerbate in the region for the probable effects of a unique combination of climatic (e.g. subtropical climate), environmental (e.g. acid rain) and socioeconomic factors (e.g. high population density). Hence, much effort is still needed to understand the role of Asia in global Hg cycle and associated environmental and health effects in the region

  3. Sources and trends of environmental mercury emissions in Asia.

    Wong, Coby S C; Duzgoren-Aydin, Nurdan S; Aydin, Adnan; Wong, Ming H

    2006-09-15

    This paper focuses on environmental mercury emissions in Asia and elaborates its probable trend in the future and associated implications given the anticipated socioeconomic outlook and other macro-environmental factors. Among the various regions, Asia has become the largest contributor of anthropogenic atmospheric Hg, responsible for over half of the global emission. In the next few decades, a significant increase in anthropogenic Hg emissions in Asia is likely owing to rapid economic and industrial development, unless drastic measures are taken. In particular, the dominance of Asia in some Hg-emitting industries, such as coal combustion, steel production and gold mining, provokes a serious environmental concern over their potential contributions of incidental Hg in the region. Moreover, the increasing prevalence of electrical and electronic manufacturing industry as a user and a contributor of Hg in Asia is also worrying. Specifically, disposal of obsolete electrical and electronic wastes represents a phenomenon increasingly encountered in Asia. In addition to escalating anthropogenic Hg emissions in Asia, associated environmental and health implications may also exacerbate in the region for the probable effects of a unique combination of climatic (e.g. subtropical climate), environmental (e.g. acid rain) and socioeconomic factors (e.g. high population density). Hence, much effort is still needed to understand the role of Asia in global Hg cycle and associated environmental and health effects in the region.

  4. Global CO2 emissions from cement production

    Andrew, Robbie M.

    2018-01-01

    The global production of cement has grown very rapidly in recent years, and after fossil fuels and land-use change, it is the third-largest source of anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide. The required data for estimating emissions from global cement production are poor, and it has been recognised that some global estimates are significantly inflated. Here we assemble a large variety of available datasets and prioritise official data and emission factors, including estimates submitted to the UNFCCC plus new estimates for China and India, to present a new analysis of global process emissions from cement production. We show that global process emissions in 2016 were 1.45±0.20 Gt CO2, equivalent to about 4 % of emissions from fossil fuels. Cumulative emissions from 1928 to 2016 were 39.3±2.4 Gt CO2, 66 % of which have occurred since 1990. Emissions in 2015 were 30 % lower than those recently reported by the Global Carbon Project. The data associated with this article can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.831455.

  5. Determinants and predictability of global wildfire emissions

    W. Knorr

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Biomass burning is one of the largest sources of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols globally. These emissions have a major impact on the radiative balance of the atmosphere and on air quality, and are thus of significant scientific and societal interest. Several datasets have been developed that quantify those emissions on a global grid and offered to the atmospheric modelling community. However, no study has yet attempted to systematically quantify the dependence of the inferred pyrogenic emissions on underlying assumptions and input data. Such a sensitivity study is needed for understanding how well we can currently model those emissions and what the factors are that contribute to uncertainties in those emission estimates.

    Here, we combine various satellite-derived burned area products, a terrestrial ecosystem model to simulate fuel loads and the effect of fire on ecosystem dynamics, a model of fuel combustion, and various emission models that relate combusted biomass to the emission of various trace gases and aerosols. We carry out simulations with varying parameters for combustion completeness and fuel decomposition rates within published estimates, four different emissions models and three different global burned-area products. We find that variations in combustion completeness and simulated fuel loads have the largest impact on simulated global emissions for most species, except for some with highly uncertain emission factors. Variation in burned-area estimates also contribute considerably to emission uncertainties. We conclude that global models urgently need more field-based data for better parameterisation of combustion completeness and validation of simulated fuel loads, and that further validation and improvement of burned area information is necessary for accurately modelling global wildfire emissions. The results are important for chemical transport modelling studies, and for simulations of biomass burning impacts on the

  6. Digitalization and the global technology trends

    Ignat, V.

    2017-08-01

    Digitalization, connected products and services, and shortening innovation cycles are widely discussed topics in management practice and theory and demand for new concepts. We analysed how companies innovated their business models and how are the new the technology trends. We found out, that have a positive approach to digitalization but the technology strategy still runs its original business model. Digitalization forces to new solution orientation. For companies it is necessary to master the digital transformation, new innovations have to be developed. Furthermore, digitalization / Industry 4.0 linking the real-life factory with virtual reality, will play an increasingly important role in global manufacturing. Companies have to obtain new digital capabilities, in order to make their company sustainable for the future. A long term growth and welfare in Europe could be guaranteed only by new technology innovation.

  7. Recent Trends in Global Ocean Chlorophyll

    Gregg, Watson; Casey, Nancy

    2004-01-01

    Recent analyses of SeaWiFS data have shown that global ocean chlorophyll has increased more than 5% since 1998. The North Pacific ocean basin has increased nearly 19%. To understand the causes of these trends we have applied the newly developed NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Assimilation Model (OBAM), which is driven in mechanistic fashion by surface winds, sea surface temperature, atmospheric iron deposition, sea ice, and surface irradiance. The mode1 utilizes chlorophyll from SeaWiFS in a daily assimilation. The model has in place many of the climatic variables that can be expected to produce the changes observed in SeaWiFS data. Ths enables us to diagnose the model performance, the assimilation performance, and possible causes for the increase in chlorophyll.

  8. Global population trends and policy options.

    Ezeh, Alex C; Bongaarts, John; Mberu, Blessing

    2012-07-14

    Rapid population growth is a threat to wellbeing in the poorest countries, whereas very low fertility increasingly threatens the future welfare of many developed countries. The mapping of global trends in population growth from 2005-10 shows four distinct patterns. Most of the poorest countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, are characterised by rapid growth of more than 2% per year. Moderate annual growth of 1-2% is concentrated in large countries, such as India and Indonesia, and across north Africa and western Latin America. Whereas most advanced-economy countries and large middle-income countries, such as China and Brazil, are characterised by low or no growth (0-1% per year), most of eastern Europe, Japan, and a few western European countries are characterised by population decline. Countries with rapid growth face adverse social, economic, and environmental pressures, whereas those with low or negative growth face rapid population ageing, unsustainable burdens on public pensions and health-care systems, and slow economic growth. Countries with rapid growth should consider the implementation of voluntary family planning programmes as their main policy option to reduce the high unmet need for contraception, unwanted pregnancies, and probirth reproductive norms. In countries with low or negative growth, policies to address ageing and very low fertility are still evolving. Further research into the potential effect of demographic policies on other social systems, social groups, and fertility decisions and trends is therefore recommended. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Global sulfur emissions from 1850 to 2000.

    Stern, David I

    2005-01-01

    The ASL database provides continuous time-series of sulfur emissions for most countries in the World from 1850 to 1990, but academic and official estimates for the 1990s either do not cover all years or countries. This paper develops continuous time series of sulfur emissions by country for the period 1850-2000 with a particular focus on developments in the 1990s. Global estimates for 1996-2000 are the first that are based on actual observed data. Raw estimates are obtained in two ways. For countries and years with existing published data I compile and integrate that data. Previously published data covers the majority of emissions and almost all countries have published emissions for at least 1995. For the remaining countries and for missing years for countries with some published data, I interpolate or extrapolate estimates using either an econometric emissions frontier model, an environmental Kuznets curve model, or a simple extrapolation, depending on the availability of data. Finally, I discuss the main movements in global and regional emissions in the 1990s and earlier decades and compare the results to other studies. Global emissions peaked in 1989 and declined rapidly thereafter. The locus of emissions shifted towards East and South Asia, but even this region peaked in 1996. My estimates for the 1990s show a much more rapid decline than other global studies, reflecting the view that technological progress in reducing sulfur based pollution has been rapid and is beginning to diffuse worldwide.

  10. Global CO{sub 2} emissions 2017. Still no breakthrough can be seen, but the signs of a trend reversal are increasing; Weltweite CO{sub 2}-Emissionen 2017. Noch kein Durchbruch erkennbar, doch mehren sich die Zeichen einer Trendumkehr

    Ziesing, Hans-Joachim

    2017-09-15

    In 2016 global CO{sub 2} emissions according to provisional calculations rose only slightly compared to 2015 with 0.4%. As a result, the average long-term growth of 1.7% (from 1990 to 2015) was once again clearly slowed down as in the previous year. As a result, CO{sub 2} emissions in 2016 reached a new peak of 33.3 billion tonnes. Although this still does not signal a trend reversal, but CO{sub 2} emissions have declined in many countries, particularly in some industrialized countries. For example. CO{sub 2} emissions in the Annex I countries were reduced by a total of 0.7% or around 94 million tonnes. This is mainly attributed to developments in the USA (-1.7% or 90.0 million tonnes), Russia (-2.0% or 32.6 million tonnes), Great Britain (-5.5% or 23.0 million tonnes) and Japan (-1.5% or 18.0 million tonnes). Encouraging is also the fact that CO{sub 2} emissions in China, the country with by far the highest emissions, have declined in 2016 as in the previous year - albeit with 0.2% quite weakly. It is less positive that CO{sub 2} emissions in the EU-28 have increased again, with the exception of Great Britain, Portugal, Spain and Bulgaria, contrary to EU-wide targets. [German] Im Jahr 2016 sind die weltweiten CO{sub 2}-Emissionen nach vorlaeufigen Berechnungen gegenueber 2015 mit 0,4 % nur schwach gestiegen. Damit wurde der langfristige Zuwachs von jahresdurchschnittlich 1,7 % (von 1990 bis 2015) wie schon im Vorjahr erneut deutlich gebremst. Im Ergebnis erreichten die CO{sub 2}-Emissionen 2016 mit reichlich 33,3 Mrd. t einen neuen Spitzenwert. Das signalisiert zwar noch keine Trendwende, doch sind die CO{sub 2}-Emissionen in zahlreichen Laendern, insbesondere in etlichen Industrielaendern, gesunken. Bspw. wurden die CO{sub 2}-Emissionen in den Annex-I-Laendern gesamthaft um 0,7 % oder rund 94 Mio. t reduziert. Dies ist vor allem auf die Entwicklung in den USA (-1,7 % oder 90,0 Mio. t), Russland (-2,0 % oder 32,6 Mio. t), Grossbritannien (-5,5 % oder 23,0 Mio. t

  11. Carbon emission from global hydroelectric reservoirs revisited.

    Li, Siyue; Zhang, Quanfa

    2014-12-01

    Substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from hydropower reservoirs have been of great concerns recently, yet the significant carbon emitters of drawdown area and reservoir downstream (including spillways and turbines as well as river reaches below dams) have not been included in global carbon budget. Here, we revisit GHG emission from hydropower reservoirs by considering reservoir surface area, drawdown zone and reservoir downstream. Our estimates demonstrate around 301.3 Tg carbon dioxide (CO2)/year and 18.7 Tg methane (CH4)/year from global hydroelectric reservoirs, which are much higher than recent observations. The sum of drawdown and downstream emission, which is generally overlooked, represents 42 % CO2 and 67 % CH4 of the total emissions from hydropower reservoirs. Accordingly, the global average emissions from hydropower are estimated to be 92 g CO2/kWh and 5.7 g CH4/kWh. Nonetheless, global hydroelectricity could currently reduce approximate 2,351 Tg CO2eq/year with respect to fuel fossil plant alternative. The new findings show a substantial revision of carbon emission from the global hydropower reservoirs.

  12. Reducing global NOx emissions: developing advanced energy and transportation technologies.

    Bradley, Michael J; Jones, Brian M

    2002-03-01

    Globally, energy demand is projected to continue to increase well into the future. As a result, global NOx emissions are projected to continue on an upward trend for the foreseeable future as developing countries increase their standards of living. While the US has experienced improvements in reducing NOx emissions from stationary and mobile sources to reduce ozone, further progress is needed to reduce the health and ecosystem impacts associated with NOx emissions. In other parts of the world, (in developing countries in particular) NOx emissions have been increasing steadily with the growth in demand for electricity and transportation. Advancements in energy and transportation technologies may help avoid this increase in emissions if appropriate policies are implemented. This paper evaluates commercially available power generation and transportation technologies that produce fewer NOx emissions than conventional technologies, and advanced technologies that are on the 10-year commercialization horizon. Various policy approaches will be evaluated which can be implemented on the regional, national and international levels to promote these advanced technologies and ultimately reduce NOx emissions. The concept of the technology leap is offered as a possibility for the developing world to avoid the projected increases in NOx emissions.

  13. Understanding NOx emission trends in China based on OMI observations

    Wang, Y.; Ga, D.; Smeltzer, C. D.; Yi, R.; Liu, Z.

    2012-12-01

    We analyze OMI observations of NO2 columns over China from 2005 to 2010. Simulations using a regional 3-D chemical transport model (REAM) are used to derive the top-down anthropogenic NOx emissions. The Kendall method is then applied to derive the emission trend. The emission trend is affected by the economic slowdown in 2009. After removing the effect of one year abnormal data, the overall emission trend is 4.35±1.42% per year, which is slower than the linear-regression trend of 5.8-10.8% per year reported for previous years. We find large regional, seasonal, and urban-rural variations in emission trend. The annual emission trends of Northeast China, Central China Plain, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are 44.98±1.39%, 5.24±1.63%, 3.31±1.02% and -4.02±1.87%, respectively. The annual emission trends of four megacities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are 0.7±0.27%, -0.75±0.31%, -4.08±1.21% and -6.22±2.85%,, considerably lower than the regional averages. These results appear to suggest that a number of factors, including migration of high-emission industries, vehicle emission regulations, emission control measures of thermal power plants, increased hydro-power usage, have reduced or reversed the increasing trend of NOx emissions in more economically developed megacities and southern coastal regions.

  14. Revised spatially distributed global livestock emissions

    Asrar, G.; Wolf, J.; West, T. O.

    2015-12-01

    Livestock play an important role in agricultural carbon cycling through consumption of biomass and emissions of methane. Quantification and spatial distribution of methane and carbon dioxide produced by livestock is needed to develop bottom-up estimates for carbon monitoring. These estimates serve as stand-alone international emissions estimates, as input to global emissions modeling, and as comparisons or constraints to flux estimates from atmospheric inversion models. Recent results for the US suggest that the 2006 IPCC default coefficients may underestimate livestock methane emissions. In this project, revised coefficients were calculated for cattle and swine in all global regions, based on reported changes in body mass, quality and quantity of feed, milk production, and management of living animals and manure for these regions. New estimates of livestock methane and carbon dioxide emissions were calculated using the revised coefficients and global livestock population data. Spatial distribution of population data and associated fluxes was conducted using the MODIS Land Cover Type 5, version 5.1 (i.e. MCD12Q1 data product), and a previously published downscaling algorithm for reconciling inventory and satellite-based land cover data at 0.05 degree resolution. Preliminary results for 2013 indicate greater emissions than those calculated using the IPCC 2006 coefficients. Global total enteric fermentation methane increased by 6%, while manure management methane increased by 38%, with variation among species and regions resulting in improved spatial distributions of livestock emissions. These new estimates of total livestock methane are comparable to other recently reported studies for the entire US and the State of California. These new regional/global estimates will improve the ability to reconcile top-down and bottom-up estimates of methane production as well as provide updated global estimates for use in development and evaluation of Earth system models.

  15. On Global Electricity Usage of Communication Technology: Trends to 2030

    Anders S. G. Andrae

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This work presents an estimation of the global electricity usage that can be ascribed to Communication Technology (CT between 2010 and 2030. The scope is three scenarios for use and production of consumer devices, communication networks and data centers. Three different scenarios, best, expected, and worst, are set up, which include annual numbers of sold devices, data traffic and electricity intensities/efficiencies. The most significant trend, regardless of scenario, is that the proportion of use-stage electricity by consumer devices will decrease and will be transferred to the networks and data centers. Still, it seems like wireless access networks will not be the main driver for electricity use. The analysis shows that for the worst-case scenario, CT could use as much as 51% of global electricity in 2030. This will happen if not enough improvement in electricity efficiency of wireless access networks and fixed access networks/data centers is possible. However, until 2030, globally-generated renewable electricity is likely to exceed the electricity demand of all networks and data centers. Nevertheless, the present investigation suggests, for the worst-case scenario, that CT electricity usage could contribute up to 23% of the globally released greenhouse gas emissions in 2030.

  16. Trend patterns in global sea surface temperature

    Barbosa, S.M.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2009-01-01

    Isolating long-term trend in sea surface temperature (SST) from El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) variability is fundamental for climate studies. In the present study, trend-empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, a robust space-time method for extracting trend patterns, is applied to iso...

  17. Global anthropogenic emissions of particulate matter including black carbon

    Klimont, Zbigniew; Kupiainen, Kaarle; Heyes, Chris; Purohit, Pallav; Cofala, Janusz; Rafaj, Peter; Borken-Kleefeld, Jens; Schöpp, Wolfgang

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of historical (1990-2010) global anthropogenic particulate matter (PM) emissions including the consistent and harmonized calculation of mass-based size distribution (PM1, PM2. 5, PM10), as well as primary carbonaceous aerosols including black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). The estimates were developed with the integrated assessment model GAINS, where source- and region-specific technology characteristics are explicitly included. This assessment includes a number of previously unaccounted or often misallocated emission sources, i.e. kerosene lamps, gas flaring, diesel generators, refuse burning; some of them were reported in the past for selected regions or in the context of a particular pollutant or sector but not included as part of a total estimate. Spatially, emissions were calculated for 172 source regions (as well as international shipping), presented for 25 global regions, and allocated to 0.5° × 0.5° longitude-latitude grids. No independent estimates of emissions from forest fires and savannah burning are provided and neither windblown dust nor unpaved roads emissions are included. We estimate that global emissions of PM have not changed significantly between 1990 and 2010, showing a strong decoupling from the global increase in energy consumption and, consequently, CO2 emissions, but there are significantly different regional trends, with a particularly strong increase in East Asia and Africa and a strong decline in Europe, North America, and the Pacific region. This in turn resulted in important changes in the spatial pattern of PM burden, e.g. European, North American, and Pacific contributions to global emissions dropped from nearly 30 % in 1990 to well below 15 % in 2010, while Asia's contribution grew from just over 50 % to nearly two-thirds of the global total in 2010. For all PM species considered, Asian sources represented over 60 % of the global anthropogenic total, and residential combustion

  18. Global anthropogenic emissions of particulate matter including black carbon

    Z. Klimont

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of historical (1990–2010 global anthropogenic particulate matter (PM emissions including the consistent and harmonized calculation of mass-based size distribution (PM1, PM2. 5, PM10, as well as primary carbonaceous aerosols including black carbon (BC and organic carbon (OC. The estimates were developed with the integrated assessment model GAINS, where source- and region-specific technology characteristics are explicitly included. This assessment includes a number of previously unaccounted or often misallocated emission sources, i.e. kerosene lamps, gas flaring, diesel generators, refuse burning; some of them were reported in the past for selected regions or in the context of a particular pollutant or sector but not included as part of a total estimate. Spatially, emissions were calculated for 172 source regions (as well as international shipping, presented for 25 global regions, and allocated to 0.5°  ×  0.5° longitude–latitude grids. No independent estimates of emissions from forest fires and savannah burning are provided and neither windblown dust nor unpaved roads emissions are included. We estimate that global emissions of PM have not changed significantly between 1990 and 2010, showing a strong decoupling from the global increase in energy consumption and, consequently, CO2 emissions, but there are significantly different regional trends, with a particularly strong increase in East Asia and Africa and a strong decline in Europe, North America, and the Pacific region. This in turn resulted in important changes in the spatial pattern of PM burden, e.g. European, North American, and Pacific contributions to global emissions dropped from nearly 30 % in 1990 to well below 15 % in 2010, while Asia's contribution grew from just over 50 % to nearly two-thirds of the global total in 2010. For all PM species considered, Asian sources represented over 60 % of the global

  19. Mapping 1995 global anthropogenic emissions of mercury

    Pacyna, Jozef M.; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Wilson, Simon

    This paper presents maps of anthropogenic Hg emissions worldwide within a 1°×1° latitude/longitude grid system in 1995. As such, the paper is designed for modelers simulating the Hg transport within air masses and Hg deposition to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Maps of total Hg emissions and its three main chemical species: elemental gaseous Hg, divalent gaseous Hg, and particle-associated Hg are presented. The main emissions occur in southeast Asia (particularly in China), South Africa, Central and Eastern Europe, and the Eastern United States. These are the regions where coal combustion is the main source of electricity and heat production. Waste incineration adds to these emissions in the Eastern United States. Emissions of total Hg and its three species are quite similar in terms of their (global) spatial distributions. They reflect the worldwide distribution of coal consumption in large power plants, industrial burners, and small combustion units, such as residential and commercial furnaces.

  20. Global contamination trends of persistent organic chemicals

    Loganathan, Bommanna G; Lam, Paul K. S

    2012-01-01

    "Composed by a diverse group of experts, this reference covers the history, present status, and projected future trends of environmental contamination from highly toxic synthetic chemical pollutants...

  1. Global hydrology 2015: State, trends, and directions

    Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    Global hydrology has come a long way since the first introduction of the primitive land surface model of Manabe (1969) and the declaration of the “Emergence of Global Hydrology” by Eagleson (1986). Hydrological submodels of varying complexity are now part of global climate models, of models

  2. CO_2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry: A scenario analysis using system dynamics model

    Li, Qiang; Zhang, Wenjuan; Li, Huiquan; He, Peng

    2017-01-01

    China announced its promise on CO_2 emission peak. When and what level of CO_2 emission peak China's primary aluminum industry will reach is in suspense. In this paper, a system dynamic model is established, with five subsystems of economy development, primary aluminum production, secondary aluminum production, CO_2 emission intensity and policies making involved. The model is applied to examine potential CO_2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry in next fifteen years with three scenarios of “no new policies”, “13th five-year plan” and “additional policies”. Simulation results imply that: merely relying on rapid expansion of domestic scarps recycling and reuse could not mitigate CO_2 emission continuously. Combination of energy-saving technology application and electrolytic technology innovation, as well as promoting hydropower utilization in primary aluminum industry are necessary for long term low-carbon development. From a global prospective, enhancing international cooperation on new primary aluminum capacity construction in other countries, especially with rich low-carbon energy, could bring about essential CO_2 emission for both China's and global primary aluminum industry. - Highlights: • A system dynamic model is established for future CO_2 emission trend of China's primary aluminum industry. • Three potential policy scenarios are simulated. • The impacts of potential policies implication on the CO_2 emission trend are discussed.

  3. Variability and trends in global drought

    McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.

    2015-01-01

    Monthly precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from the CRUTS3.1 data set are used to compute monthly P minus PET (PMPE) for the land areas of the globe. The percent of the global land area with annual sums of PMPE less than zero are used as an index of global drought (%drought) for 1901 through 2009. Results indicate that for the past century %drought has not changed, even though global PET and temperature (T) have increased. Although annual global PET and T have increased, annual global P also has increased and has mitigated the effects of increased PET on %drought.

  4. The sectoral trends of multigas emissions inventory of India

    Garg, A.; Shukla, P.R.; Kapshe, M.

    2006-01-01

    This paper provides the trends of greenhouse gas (GHG) and local air pollutant emissions of India for 1985-2005. The GHGs covered are six Kyoto gases, namely carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6...... in the same sector is the major source of N2O emissions. PFC emissions are dominated by C2F6 and CF4 emissions from aluminum production. The majority of HFC emissions are contributed by HFC-23, a by-product during the production of HCFC-22 that is widely used in refrigeration industry. CO emissions have...... dominance from biomass burning. Particulate emissions are dominated by biomass burning (residential sector), road transport and coal combustion in large plants. These varied emission patterns provide interesting policy links and disjoints, such as-which and where mitigation flexibility for the Kyoto gases...

  5. Feasibility of including fugitive PM-10 emissions estimates in the EPA emissions trends report

    Barnard, W.; Carlson, P.

    1990-09-01

    The report describes the results of Part 2 of a two part study. Part 2 was to evaluate the feasibility of developing regional emission trends for PM-10. Part 1 was to evaluate the feasibility of developing VOC emission trends, on a regional and temporal basis. These studies are part of the effort underway to improve the national emission trends. Part 1 is presented in a separate report. The categories evaluated for the feasibility of developing regional emissions estimates were: unpaved roads, paved roads, wind erosion, agricultural tilling, construction activities, feedlots, burning, landfills, mining and quarrying unpaved parking lots, unpaved airstrips and storage piles

  6. Primary anthropogenic aerosol emission trends for China, 1990–2005

    Y. Lei

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available An inventory of anthropogenic primary aerosol emissions in China was developed for 1990–2005 using a technology-based approach. Taking into account changes in the technology penetration within industry sectors and improvements in emission controls driven by stricter emission standards, a dynamic methodology was derived and implemented to estimate inter-annual emission factors. Emission factors of PM2.5 decreased by 7%–69% from 1990 to 2005 in different industry sectors of China, and emission factors of TSP decreased by 18%–80% as well, with the measures of controlling PM emissions implemented. As a result, emissions of PM2.5 and TSP in 2005 were 11.0 Tg and 29.7 Tg, respectively, less than what they would have been without the adoption of these measures. Emissions of PM2.5, PM10 and TSP presented similar trends: they increased in the first six years of 1990s and decreased until 2000, then increased again in the following years. Emissions of TSP peaked (35.5 Tg in 1996, while the peak of PM10 (18.8 Tg and PM2.5 (12.7 Tg emissions occurred in 2005. Although various emission trends were identified across sectors, the cement industry and biofuel combustion in the residential sector were consistently the largest sources of PM2.5 emissions, accounting for 53%–62% of emissions over the study period. The non-metallic mineral product industry, including the cement, lime and brick industries, accounted for 54%–63% of national TSP emissions. There were no significant trends of BC and OC emissions until 2000, but the increase after 2000 brought the peaks of BC (1.51 Tg and OC (3.19 Tg emissions in 2005. Although significant improvements in the estimation of primary aerosols are presented here, there still exist large uncertainties. More accurate and detailed activity information and emission factors based on local tests are essential to further improve emission estimates

  7. Global gridded anthropogenic emissions inventory of carbonyl sulfide

    Zumkehr, Andrew; Hilton, Tim W.; Whelan, Mary; Smith, Steve; Kuai, Le; Worden, John; Campbell, J. Elliott

    2018-06-01

    Atmospheric carbonyl sulfide (COS or OCS) is the most abundant sulfur containing gas in the troposphere and is an atmospheric tracer for the carbon cycle. Gridded inventories of global anthropogenic COS are used for interpreting global COS measurements. However, previous gridded anthropogenic data are a climatological estimate based on input data that is over three decades old and are not representative of current conditions. Here we develop a new gridded data set of global anthropogenic COS sources that includes more source sectors than previously available and uses the most current emissions factors and industry activity data as input. Additionally, the inventory is provided as annually varying estimates from years 1980-2012 and employs a source specific spatial scaling procedure. We estimate a global source in year 2012 of 406 Gg S y-1 (range of 223-586 Gg S y-1), which is highly concentrated in China and is twice as large as the previous gridded inventory. Our large upward revision in the bottom-up estimate of the source is consistent with a recent top-down estimate based on air-monitoring and Antarctic firn data. Furthermore, our inventory time trends, including a decline in the 1990's and growth after the year 2000, are qualitatively consistent with trends in atmospheric data. Finally, similarities between the spatial distribution in this inventory and remote sensing data suggest that the anthropogenic source could potentially play a role in explaining a missing source in the global COS budget.

  8. Global Sulfur Emissions in the 1990s

    David I. Stern

    2003-01-01

    This paper provides global and individual country estimates of sulfur emissions from 1991-2000. Raw estimates are obtained in two ways. For countries and years with published data I compile that data from the available sources. For the remaining countries and for missing years for countries with some published data, I use either the decomposition model estimated by Stern (2002), the first differences environmental Kuznets curve model estimated by Stern and Common (2001), or a simple extrapola...

  9. Decadal changes in global surface NOx emissions from multi-constituent satellite data assimilation

    K. Miyazaki

    2017-01-01

    underestimation of soil NOx sources in the emission inventories. Despite the large trends observed for individual regions, the global total emission is almost constant between 2005 (47.9 Tg N yr−1 and 2014 (47.5 Tg N yr−1.

  10. ITDB information ; global risks, trends and patterns

    2010-01-01

    The trend in the quantities of nuclear materials seized in trafficking have decreased per incidence, however some seizures involved only samples. Most incidents have involved nuclear material from pre-conversion, conversion, fuel fabrication and storage facilities. Few of the incidents have shown evidence of materials from enrichment and reprocessing facilities. the involvement of insiders and the stealing techniques used are yet to be thoroughly analysed.

  11. Emerging Global Trends in Advanced Manufacturing

    2012-03-01

    facility. Such distributed manufacturing could be made accessible to large masses even in remote areas (Ehmann 2011). For example, Zara is a Spanish...consumers. It has tightened its supply-chain management so that the consumer “pulls” the design. Zara uses state-of-the-art IT and distribution...systems to collect data daily on trends so they can quickly turn out new designs. Zara keeps costs down by using existing materials in stock and through

  12. Constraining global methane emissions and uptake by ecosystems

    Spahni, R.; Wania, R.; Neef, L.; Van Weele, M.; Van Velthoven, P.; Pison, I.; Bousquet, P.

    2011-01-01

    Natural methane (CH 4 ) emissions from wet ecosystems are an important part of today's global CH 4 budget. Climate affects the exchange of CH 4 between ecosystems and the atmosphere by influencing CH 4 production, oxidation, and transport in the soil. The net CH 4 exchange depends on ecosystem hydrology, soil and vegetation characteristics. Here, the LPJ-WHyMe global dynamical vegetation model is used to simulate global net CH 4 emissions for different ecosystems: northern peat-lands (45 degrees-90 degrees N), naturally inundated wetlands (60 degrees S-45 degrees N), rice agriculture and wet mineral soils. Mineral soils are a potential CH 4 sink, but can also be a source with the direction of the net exchange depending on soil moisture content. The geographical and seasonal distributions are evaluated against multi-dimensional atmospheric inversions for 2003-2005, using two independent four-dimensional variational assimilation systems. The atmospheric inversions are constrained by the atmospheric CH 4 observations of the SCIAMACHY satellite instrument and global surface networks. Compared to LPJ-WHyMe the inversions result in a significant reduction in the emissions from northern peat-lands and suggest that LPJ-WHyMe maximum annual emissions peak about one month late. The inversions do not put strong constraints on the division of sources between inundated wetlands and wet mineral soils in the tropics. Based on the inversion results we diagnose model parameters in LPJ-WHyMe and simulate the surface exchange of CH 4 over the period 1990-2008. Over the whole period we infer an increase of global ecosystem CH 4 emissions of +1.11 TgCH 4 yr -1 , not considering potential additional changes in wetland extent. The increase in simulated CH 4 emissions is attributed to enhanced soil respiration resulting from the observed rise in land temperature and in atmospheric carbon dioxide that were used as input. The long term decline of the atmospheric CH 4 growth rate from 1990

  13. Peatland Organic Matter Chemistry Trends Over a Global Latitudinal Gradient

    Verbeke, B. A.; Hodgkins, S. B.; Carson, M. A.; Lamit, L. J.; Lilleskov, E.; Chanton, J.

    2017-12-01

    Peatlands contain a significant amount of the global soil carbon, and the climate feedback of carbon cycling within these peatland systems is still relatively unknown. Organic matter composition of peatlands plays a major role in determining carbon storage, and while high latitude peatlands seem to be the most sensitive to climate change, a global picture of peat organic matter chemistry is required to improve predictions and models of greenhouse gas emissions fueled by peatland decomposition. The objective of this research is to test the hypothesis that carbohydrate content of peatlands near the equator will be lower than high latitude peatlands, while aromatic content will be higher. As a part of the Global Peatland Microbiome Project (GPMP), around 2000 samples of peat from 10 to 70 cm across a latitudinal gradient of 79 N to 53 S were measured with Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) to examine the organic matter functional groups of peat. Carbohydrate and aromatic content, as determined by FTIR, are useful proxies of decomposition potential and recalcitrance, respectively. We found a highly significant relationship between carbohydrate and aromatic content, latitude, and depth. Carbohydrate content of high latitude sites were significantly greater than at sites near the equator, in contrast to aromatic content which showed the opposite trend. It is also clear that carbohydrate content decreases with depth while aromatic content increases with depth. Higher carbohydrate content at higher latitudes indicates a greater potential for lability and resultant mineralization to form the greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane, whereas the composition of low latitude peatlands is consistent with their apparent stability. We speculate that the combination of low carbohydrates and high aromatics at warmer locations near the equator could foreshadow the organic matter composition of high latitude peat transitioning to a more recalcitrant form with a

  14. Trends in Aggregate Vehicle Emissions: Do We Need To Emissions Test?

    Matthew Kahn

    1995-01-01

    Vehicle emissions are falling. As the oldest vehicles in the fleet are scrapped and are replaced by cleaner vehicles, aggregate emissions decline. Given this trend, must costly used car regulation continue? The Clean Air Act of 1990 requires more stringent used car testing without considering the counter-factual of how aggregate emissions would evolve in the absence of more regulation. This paper use data on vehicle scrappage rates, vehicle emissions by model year, and county air quality leve...

  15. 2014 Global Energy Trends: a year full of surprises. Based on its 2014 data for G20 countries, Enerdata analyses the trends in the world energy demand

    2015-01-01

    According to the 2014 Global Energy Trends publication, Enerdata points out 2014 as a remarkable year with a near stagnation in energy demand and CO_2 emissions despite economic growth. The G20's 2014 Key Energy figures: +3.5% Economic Growth; +0.3% (10.8 Gtep) Energy consumption stagnation; -0.2% (26 GtCO_2) CO_2 emissions stabilizations. The main trends derived from the publication are: - Historical stagnation in energy consumption; - Stabilisation in CO_2 emissions; - Global energy consumption stabilisation is reflected everywhere: - 0 growth for gas, - Fall in coal consumption, - Slight increase in electricity consumption. The Global Energy Trends Analysis also provides additional graphs on such topics as: Coal: most consumed energy source in G20 countries; Oil: 50% fall in international prices; Oil: demand continues to slightly increase; Gas: high impact of climate on gas consumption. (authors)

  16. Vehicle emissions of short-lived and long-lived climate forcers: trends and tradeoffs.

    Edwards, Morgan R; Klemun, Magdalena M; Kim, Hyung Chul; Wallington, Timothy J; Winkler, Sandra L; Tamor, Michael A; Trancik, Jessika E

    2017-08-24

    Evaluating technology options to mitigate the climate impacts of road transportation can be challenging, particularly when they involve a tradeoff between long-lived emissions (e.g., carbon dioxide) and short-lived emissions (e.g., methane or black carbon). Here we present trends in short- and long-lived emissions for light- and heavy-duty transport globally and in the U.S., EU, and China over the period 2000-2030, and we discuss past and future changes to vehicle technologies to reduce these emissions. We model the tradeoffs between short- and long-lived emission reductions across a range of technology options, life cycle emission intensities, and equivalency metrics. While short-lived vehicle emissions have decreased globally over the past two decades, significant reductions in CO 2 will be required by mid-century to meet climate change mitigation targets. This is true regardless of the time horizon used to compare long- and short-lived emissions. The short-lived emission intensities of some low-CO 2 technologies are higher than others, and thus their suitability for meeting climate targets depends sensitively on the evaluation time horizon. Other technologies offer low intensities of both short-lived emissions and CO 2 .

  17. M-business as a global trend

    Stojanović Zvezdan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to the great advances in infrastructure and software, due to the huge capital invested in their development, and due to increasing demands for mobility customers and operations in real time, mobile networks are in a growing mode. According to relevant survey, the number of mobile subscribers in the global level has almost reached the total population of the Earth. There are predictions that in developed countries with a large number of Internet subscribers, subscribers who access the Internet via mobile devices very soon will exceed the number of subscribers that access the Internet through personal computers. Leadings world companies must deploy mobile business and build mobile strategy in order to remain cempetative in global market.

  18. Global and regional emission estimates for HCFC-22

    E. Saikawa

    2012-11-01

    that the global HCFC-22 emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2009. We further find a surge in HCFC-22 emissions between 2005 and 2009 from developing countries in Asia – the largest emitting region including China and India. Globally, substantial emissions continue despite production and consumption being phased out in developed countries currently.

  19. Global Trends of Tropospheric NO2 Observed From Space

    Schneider, P.; van der A, R. J.

    2012-04-01

    Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) is one of the major atmospheric pollutants and is primarily emitted by industrial activity and transport. While observations of NO2 are frequently being carried out at air quality stations, such measurements are not able to provide a global perspective of spatial patterns in NO2 concentrations and their associated trends due to the stations' limited spatial representativity and an extremely sparse and often completely non-existent station coverage in developing countries. Satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 are able to overcome this issue and provide an unprecedented global view of spatial patterns in NO2 levels and due to their homogeneity are well suited for studying trends. Here we present results of a global trend analysis from nearly a decade of NO2 observations made by the SCIAMACHY (SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY) instrument onboard the Envisat satellite platform. Using only SCIAMACHY data allows for mapping global and regional trends at an unprecedented spatial resolution since no aggregation to the coarser resolution of other sensors is necessary. Monthly average tropospheric NO2 column data was acquired for the period between August 2002 and August 2011. A trend analysis was subsequently performed by fitting a statistical model including a seasonal cycle and linear trend to the time series extracted at each grid cell. The linear trend component and the trend uncertainty were then mapped spatially at both regional and global scales. The results show that spatially contiguous areas of significantly increasing NO2 levels are found primarily in Eastern China, with absolute trends of up to 4.05 (± 0.41) - 1015 molecules cm-2 yr-1 at the gridcell level and large areas showing rapid relative increases of 10-20 percent per year. In addition, many urban agglomerations in Asia and the Middle East similarly exhibit significantly increasing trends, with Dhaka in Bangladesh being the megacity with

  20. Forecasting of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion using trend analysis

    Koene, Aylin Cigdem; Bueke, Tayfun

    2010-01-01

    The accelerating use of fossil fuels since the Industrial Revolution and the rapid destruction of forests causes a significant increase in greenhouse gases. The increasing threat of global warming and climate change has been the major, worldwide, ongoing concern especially in the last two decades. The impacts of global warming on the world economy have been assessed intensively by researchers since the 1990s. Worldwide organizations have been attempting to reduce the adverse impacts of global warming through intergovernmental and binding agreements. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is one of the most foremost greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The energy sector is dominated by the direct combustion of fuels, a process leading to large emissions of CO 2 . CO 2 from energy represents about 60% of the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions of global emissions. This percentage varies greatly by country, due to diverse national energy structures. The top-25 emitting countries accounted 82.27% of the world CO 2 emissions in 2007. In the same year China was the largest emitter and generated 20.96% of the world total. Trend analysis is based on the idea that what has happened in the past gives traders an idea of what will happen in the future. In this study, trend analysis approach has been employed for modelling to forecast of energy-related CO 2 emissions. To this aim first, trends in CO 2 emissions for the top-25 countries and the world total CO 2 emissions during 1971-2007 are identified. On developing the regression analyses, the regression analyses with R 2 values less than 0.94 showing insignificant influence in statistical tests have been discarded. Statistically significant trends are indicated in eleven countries namely, India, South Korea, Islamic Republic of Iran, Mexico, Australia, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, South Africa, Taiwan, Turkey and the world total. The results obtained from the analyses showed that the models for those countries can be used for CO 2

  1. Forecasting of CO{sub 2} emissions from fuel combustion using trend analysis

    Koene, Aylin Cigdem [Mugla University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, 48000 Mugla (Turkey); Bueke, Tayfun [Mugla University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Department of Physics, 48000 Mugla (Turkey)

    2010-12-15

    The accelerating use of fossil fuels since the Industrial Revolution and the rapid destruction of forests causes a significant increase in greenhouse gases. The increasing threat of global warming and climate change has been the major, worldwide, ongoing concern especially in the last two decades. The impacts of global warming on the world economy have been assessed intensively by researchers since the 1990s. Worldwide organizations have been attempting to reduce the adverse impacts of global warming through intergovernmental and binding agreements. Carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) is one of the most foremost greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The energy sector is dominated by the direct combustion of fuels, a process leading to large emissions of CO{sub 2}. CO{sub 2} from energy represents about 60% of the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions of global emissions. This percentage varies greatly by country, due to diverse national energy structures. The top-25 emitting countries accounted 82.27% of the world CO{sub 2} emissions in 2007. In the same year China was the largest emitter and generated 20.96% of the world total. Trend analysis is based on the idea that what has happened in the past gives traders an idea of what will happen in the future. In this study, trend analysis approach has been employed for modelling to forecast of energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions. To this aim first, trends in CO{sub 2} emissions for the top-25 countries and the world total CO{sub 2} emissions during 1971-2007 are identified. On developing the regression analyses, the regression analyses with R{sup 2} values less than 0.94 showing insignificant influence in statistical tests have been discarded. Statistically significant trends are indicated in eleven countries namely, India, South Korea, Islamic Republic of Iran, Mexico, Australia, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, South Africa, Taiwan, Turkey and the world total. The results obtained from the analyses showed that the models for

  2. Trends '91: A compendium of data on global change---highlights

    Boden, T.A.; Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W.

    1992-03-01

    The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has been prompted to produce the series Trends, a concise inventory of data in response to heightened concern about global environmental issues, in particular climate changes induced by the greenhouse effect. This report contains extracts from Trends '91 to illustrate the content, style, and presentation of data contained in the full 700-page report. This report includes a listing of the investigators contributing data for Trends '91. In addition, it contains the abstract, foreword, and acknowledgments, as well as the introduction and a sample data record from each of the reports's five chapters. The chapters are ''Atmospheric CO 2 ,'' ''Atmospheric CH 4 ,'' ''Other Trace Gases,'' ''CO 2 Emissions,'' and ''Temperature.'' Appendix A provides information about CDIAC and its activities related to global environmental issues. Appendix B lists the contents of the full report. An order form for obtaining a free copy of Trends '91 is found in Appendix C

  3. Trends in coal use - global, EU and Poland

    Suwała, Wojciech; Wyrwa, Artur; Olkuski, Tadeusz

    2017-11-01

    That aim of this paper is to compare trends in global, European use of coal with tendencies in Poland, one of heavy coal dependent countries. Polish power generation is unique among OECD countries, the share of both hard coal and lignite in power generation reaches 81% [1]. Climate policy of European Union is to phase out intensive greenhouse gases sectors, thus to transform Polish power generation into less carbon intensive. Although such policy is generally accepted in Poland, the paste and practically proposed regulation that excludes coal generation from capacity mechanisms, is considered as threat to energy security. Coal is the base for generation for one simple reason, abundant in European scale hard coal reserves and significant capacities in lignite. Natural gas reserves allow to supply about 1/3 of consumption, but prices and supplies dependent hitherto on contracts with GAZPROM did not allow to develop significant generation capacities. Renewable resources are limited, there is not much possibilities for hydro, wind and solar. Poland is also one of the countries of poor air quality, traditional coal based space heating systems plus obsolete car fleet generate vast emissions, especially during the winter. Only recently this became top priority of environmental authorities. This situation is subject to transformation, government, managers are aware that the role of coal needs to be decreased, but there are two main questions, the paste of transformation and the future energy mix. The paper attempts to answer the question whether the expected changes in Polish energy mix are comparable or differ from the global and European tendencies.

  4. Trends in the global aluminum fabrication industry

    Das, Subodh; Yin, Weimin

    2007-02-01

    The aluminum fabrication industry has become more vital to the global economy as international aluminum consumption has grown steadily in the past decades. Using innovation, value, and sustainability, the aluminum industry is strengthening its position not only in traditional packaging and construction applications but also in the automotive and aerospace markets to become more competitive and to face challenges from other industries and higher industrial standards. The aluminum fabrication industry has experienced a significant geographical shift caused by rapid growth in emerging markets in countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Market growth and distribution will vary with different patterns of geography and social development; the aluminum industry must be part of the transformation and keep pace with market developments to benefit.

  5. Atmospheric verification of anthropogenic CO2 emission trends

    Francey, Roger J.; Trudinger, Cathy M.; van der Schoot, Marcel; Law, Rachel M.; Krummel, Paul B.; Langenfelds, Ray L.; Paul Steele, L.; Allison, Colin E.; Stavert, Ann R.; Andres, Robert J.; Rödenbeck, Christian

    2013-05-01

    International efforts to limit global warming and ocean acidification aim to slow the growth of atmospheric CO2, guided primarily by national and industry estimates of production and consumption of fossil fuels. Atmospheric verification of emissions is vital but present global inversion methods are inadequate for this purpose. We demonstrate a clear response in atmospheric CO2 coinciding with a sharp 2010 increase in Asian emissions but show persisting slowing mean CO2 growth from 2002/03. Growth and inter-hemispheric concentration difference during the onset and recovery of the Global Financial Crisis support a previous speculation that the reported 2000-2008 emissions surge is an artefact, most simply explained by a cumulative underestimation (~ 9PgC) of 1994-2007 emissions; in this case, post-2000 emissions would track mid-range of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios. An alternative explanation requires changes in the northern terrestrial land sink that offset anthropogenic emission changes. We suggest atmospheric methods to help resolve this ambiguity.

  6. Constraining the carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) budget using its global trend and inter-hemispheric gradient

    Liang, Qing; Newman, Paul A.; Daniel, John S.; Reimann, Stefan; Hall, Bradley D.; Dutton, Geoff; Kuijpers, Lambert J. M.

    2014-07-01

    Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) is a major anthropogenic ozone-depleting substance and greenhouse gas and has been regulated under the Montreal Protocol. However, the near-zero 2007-2012 emissions estimate based on the UNEP reported production and feedstock usage cannot be reconciled with the observed slow decline of atmospheric concentrations and the inter-hemispheric gradient (IHG) for CCl4. Our 3-D model simulations suggest that the observed IHG (1.5 ± 0.2 ppt for 2000-2012) is primarily caused by ongoing current emissions, while ocean and soil losses and stratosphere-troposphere exchange together contribute a small negative gradient (~0 - -0.3 ppt). Using the observed CCl4 global trend and IHG, we deduce that the mean global emissions for the 2000-2012 period are 393445 Gg/yr (~30% of the peak 1980s emissions) and a corresponding total lifetime of 353732 years.

  7. [Global trends in food consumption and nutrition].

    Holmboe-Ottesen, G

    2000-01-10

    Obesity and lifestyle diseases increase all over the world, especially in developing countries. One reason is the change in diet. This nutrition transition is characterised by improvement in dietary variation, but also by increase in the content of fat and sugar. The transition seems to start at a lower level of income, compared to what occurred in the Western countries after the Second World War. The reason is that many foods are relatively cheaper, especially fat and sugar. The world market is presently flooded with cheap vegetable fat. Urbanisation leads to over-consumption by increasing market access to fatty and sugary foods, including fast foods. Globalization increases the consumption of sweet soda pops, biscuits and snacks produced by multinational companies. Western supermarkets and fast food franchises also promote these dietary changes (McDonaldization). It has been proposed that the population in developing countries is more vulnerable towards these dietary changes in regard to obesity and chronic diseases, due to undernutrition in early life (the Barker hypothesis). We may therefore expect an unprecedented increase in the prevalence of chronic diseases, especially diabetes type 2 in the developing countries. One may question if this increase will be a transient phenomenon, or if we can expect the same pattern as we have seen in the West, namely that the poor become the fat-test segment of the population, with the highest prevalence of chronic diseases.

  8. Evaluating Global Emission Inventories of Biogenic Bromocarbons

    Hossaini, Ryan; Mantle, H.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Montzka, S. A.; Hamer, P.; Ziska, F.; Quack, B.; Kruger, K.; Tegtmeier, S.; Atlas, E.; hide

    2013-01-01

    Emissions of halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLS) are poorly constrained. However, their inclusion in global models is required to simulate a realistic inorganic bromine (Bry) loading in both the troposphere, where bromine chemistry perturbs global oxidizing capacity, and in the stratosphere, where it is a major sink for ozone (O3). We have performed simulations using a 3-D chemical transport model (CTM) including three top-down and a single bottom-up derived emission inventory of the major brominated VSLS bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2). We perform the first concerted evaluation of these inventories, comparing both the magnitude and spatial distribution of emissions. For a quantitative evaluation of each inventory, model output is compared with independent long-term observations at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ground-based stations and with aircraft observations made during the NSF (National Science Foundation) HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) project. For CHBr3, the mean absolute deviation between model and surface observation ranges from 0.22 (38 %) to 0.78 (115 %) parts per trillion (ppt) in the tropics, depending on emission inventory. For CH2Br2, the range is 0.17 (24 %) to 1.25 (167 %) ppt. We also use aircraft observations made during the 2011 Stratospheric Ozone: Halogen Impacts in a Varying Atmosphere (SHIVA) campaign, in the tropical western Pacific. Here, the performance of the various inventories also varies significantly, but overall the CTM is able to reproduce observed CHBr3 well in the free troposphere using an inventory based on observed sea-to-air fluxes. Finally, we identify the range of uncertainty associated with these VSLS emission inventories on stratospheric bromine loading due to VSLS (Br(VSLS/y)). Our simulations show Br(VSLS/y) ranges from approximately 4.0 to 8.0 ppt depending on the inventory. We report an optimized estimate at the lower end of this range (approximately 4 ppt

  9. Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping

    Voigt, Stefan; Giulio-Tonolo, Fabio; Lyons, Josh; Kučera, Jan; Jones, Brenda; Schneiderhan, Tobias; Platzeck, Gabriel; Kaku, Kazuya; Hazarika, Manzul Kumar; Czaran, Lorant; Li, Suju; Pedersen, Wendi; James, Godstime Kadiri; Proy, Catherine; Muthike, Denis Macharia; Bequignon, Jerome; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

    2016-01-01

    Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective.

  10. Global emissions of terpenoid VOCs from terrestrial vegetation in the last millennium

    Acosta Navarro, J C; Smolander, S; Struthers, H; Zorita, E; Ekman, A M L; Kaplan, J O; Guenther, A; Arneth, A; Riipinen, I

    2014-01-01

    We investigated the millennial variability (1000 A.D.–2000 A.D.) of global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions by using two independent numerical models: The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), for isoprene, monoterpene, and sesquiterpene, and Lund-Potsdam-Jena-General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS), for isoprene and monoterpenes. We found the millennial trends of global isoprene emissions to be mostly affected by land cover and atmospheric carbon dioxide changes, whereas monoterpene and sesquiterpene emission trends were dominated by temperature change. Isoprene emissions declined substantially in regions with large and rapid land cover change. In addition, isoprene emission sensitivity to drought proved to have significant short-term global effects. By the end of the past millennium MEGAN isoprene emissions were 634 TgC yr−1 (13% and 19% less than during 1750–1850 and 1000–1200, respectively), and LPJ-GUESS emissions were 323 TgC yr−1(15% and 20% less than during 1750–1850 and 1000–1200, respectively). Monoterpene emissions were 89 TgC yr−1(10% and 6% higher than during 1750–1850 and 1000–1200, respectively) in MEGAN, and 24 TgC yr−1 (2% higher and 5% less than during 1750–1850 and 1000–1200, respectively) in LPJ-GUESS. MEGAN sesquiterpene emissions were 36 TgC yr−1(10% and 4% higher than during 1750–1850 and 1000–1200, respectively). Although both models capture similar emission trends, the magnitude of the emissions are different. This highlights the importance of building better constraints on VOC emissions from terrestrial vegetation. PMID:25866703

  11. The role of philosophy in global bioethics: introducing four trends.

    Hellsten, Sirkku K

    2015-04-01

    This article examines the relationship between philosophy and culture in global bioethics. First, it studies what is meant by the term "global" in global bioethics. Second, the author introduces four different types, or recognizable trends, in philosophical inquiry in bioethics today. The main argument is that, in order to make better sense of the complexity of the ethical questions and challenges we face today across the globe, we need to embrace the universal nature of self-critical and analytical philosophical analysis and argumentation, rather than using seemingly philosophical approaches to give unjustified normative emphasis on different cultural approaches to bioethics.

  12. Global health care leadership development: trends to consider

    MacPhee M

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Maura MacPhee,1 Lilu Chang,2 Diana Lee,3 Wilza Spiri4 1University of British Columbia School of Nursing, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; 2Center for Advancement of Nursing Education, Koo Foundation, Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan; 3Nethersole School of Nursing, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, 4São Paulo State University, Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil Abstract: This paper provides an overview of trends associated with global health care leadership development. Accompanying these trends are propositions based on current available evidence. These testable propositions should be considered when designing, implementing, and evaluating global health care leadership development models and programs. One particular leadership development model, a multilevel identity model, is presented as a potential model to use for leadership development. Other, complementary approaches, such as positive psychology and empowerment strategies, are discussed in relation to leadership identity formation. Specific issues related to global leadership are reviewed, including cultural intelligence and global mindset. An example is given of a nurse leadership development model that has been empirically tested in Canada. Through formal practice–academic–community collaborations, this model has been locally adapted and is being used for nurse leader training in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Brazil. Collaborative work is under way to adapt the model for interprofessional health care leadership development. Keywords: health care leadership, development models, global trends, collective

  13. AMSR-E/Aqua Monthly Global Microwave Land Surface Emissivity

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set is a global land emissivity product using passive microwave observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System...

  14. Is the global mean temperature trend too low?

    Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf

    2015-04-01

    The global mean temperature trend may be biased due to similar technological and economic developments worldwide. In this study we want to present a number of recent results that suggest that the global mean temperature trend might be steeper as generally thought. In the Global Historical Climate Network version 3 (GHCNv3) the global land surface temperature is estimated to have increased by about 0.8°C between 1880 and 2012. In the raw temperature record, the increase is 0.6°C; the 0.2°C difference is due to homogenization adjustments. Given that homogenization can only reduce biases, this 0.2°C stems from a partial correction of bias errors and it seems likely that the real non-climatic trend bias will be larger. Especially in regions with sparser networks, homogenization will not be able to improve the trend much. Thus if the trend bias in these regions is similar to the bias for more dense networks (industrialized countries), one would expect the real bias to be larger. Stations in sparse networks are representative for a larger region and are given more weight in the computation of the global mean temperature. If all stations are given equal weight, the homogenization adjustments of the GHCNv3 dataset are about 0.4°C per century. In the subdaily HadISH dataset one break with mean size 0.12°C is found every 15 years for the period 1973-2013. That would be a trend bias of 0.78°C per century on a station by station basis. Unfortunately, these estimates strongly focus on Western countries having more stations. It is known from the literature that rich countries have a (statistically insignificant) stronger trend in the global datasets. Regional datasets can be better homogenized than global ones, the main reason being that global datasets do not contain all stations known to the weather services. Furthermore, global datasets use automatic homogenization methods and have less or no metadata. Thus while regional data can be biased themselves, comparing them

  15. Global trends and their impact on city logistics management

    Tadić Snežana R.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Changes in economic and social environments are more dynamic, and survival in the market requires a wide range, increase efficiency and quality of logistics services. The competitiveness of the region and the city, as the leader of economic development, depends on the efficiency of logistics solutions that must be adaptive to new conditions and demands of the market. This paper presents some of the most important global trends in terms of impact on the urban logistics. In order to define sustainable solutions, the analysis of presented social, economic, technological, environmental and other trends should be integral part of the city logistics planning and management.

  16. The decrease of CO2 emission intensity is decarbonization at national and global levels

    Sun, J.W.

    2005-01-01

    This viewpoint proposes the definition: 'Decarbonization refers to a decrease of CO 2 emission intensity in a trend'. This viewpoint then argues that an analysis of decarbonization at national and global levels based on that definition would lead to the correct calculation of decarbonization

  17. Using Global Trends as Catalysts for City Transition

    Gebalska, Bogna Anna

    2017-01-01

    and acting in response to the events or it can miss the chance, losing in the global competition. There is a considerable interest in finding, what influences city's prosperity. Global trends and the socio-demographic evolution are recognized as main overall powers. This study examines how these forces...... stimulate cities and how to employ them in a development process, in order to achieve a successful city transition. Searching for essential elements directing towards inclusive and successful city transition, the urbanization is studied. Global processes influence cities significantly with individual......, different outcomes, what is examined in case study part. Case study provides cross sector analyses of three European cities, basing on national statistics, international and local databases. The study indicates that global forces and local conditions are of similar significance for city development. Case...

  18. Control of mercury emissions: policies, technologies, and future trends

    Rhee, Seung-Whee

    2015-01-01

    Seung-Whee Rhee Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyonggi University, Suwon, Republic of Korea Abstract: Owing to the Minamata Convention on Mercury and the Global Mercury Partnership, policies and regulations on mercury management in advanced countries were intensified by a mercury phaseout program in the mercury control strategy. In developing countries, the legislative or regulatory frameworks on mercury emissions are not established specifically, but mercury management is designed...

  19. Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record

    Poppick, Andrew; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Stein, Michael L.

    2017-06-01

    Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to de-emphasize physical and statistical assumptions: examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for internal variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. However, given a limited data record and the presence of internal variability, estimating radiatively forced temperature trends in the historical record necessarily requires some assumptions. Ostensibly empirical methods can also involve an inherent conflict in assumptions: they require data records that are short enough for naive trend models to be applicable, but long enough for long-timescale internal variability to be accounted for. In the context of global mean temperatures, empirical methods that appear to de-emphasize assumptions can therefore produce misleading inferences, because the trend over the twentieth century is complex and the scale of temporal correlation is long relative to the length of the data record. We illustrate here how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable trend estimates and can allow for a wider array of questions to be addressed. In particular, the model allows one to distinguish, within a single statistical framework, between uncertainties in the shorter-term vs. longer-term response to radiative forcing, with implications not only on historical trends but also on uncertainties in future projections. We also investigate the consequence on inferred uncertainties of the choice of a statistical description of internal variability. While nonparametric methods may seem to avoid making explicit assumptions, we demonstrate how even misspecified parametric statistical methods, if attuned to the

  20. Modeling Global Biogenic Emission of Isoprene: Exploration of Model Drivers

    Alexander, Susan E.; Potter, Christopher S.; Coughlan, Joseph C.; Klooster, Steven A.; Lerdau, Manuel T.; Chatfield, Robert B.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    Vegetation provides the major source of isoprene emission to the atmosphere. We present a modeling approach to estimate global biogenic isoprene emission. The isoprene flux model is linked to a process-based computer simulation model of biogenic trace-gas fluxes that operates on scales that link regional and global data sets and ecosystem nutrient transformations Isoprene emission estimates are determined from estimates of ecosystem specific biomass, emission factors, and algorithms based on light and temperature. Our approach differs from an existing modeling framework by including the process-based global model for terrestrial ecosystem production, satellite derived ecosystem classification, and isoprene emission measurements from a tropical deciduous forest. We explore the sensitivity of model estimates to input parameters. The resulting emission products from the global 1 degree x 1 degree coverage provided by the satellite datasets and the process model allow flux estimations across large spatial scales and enable direct linkage to atmospheric models of trace-gas transport and transformation.

  1. Global Emissions of Terpenoid VOCs from Terrestrial Vegetation in the Last Millennium

    Acosta Navarro, J. C.; Smolander, S.; Struthers, H.; Zorita, E.; Ekman, A. M.; Kaplan, J. O.; Guenther, Alex B.; Arneth, A.; Riipinen, I.

    2014-06-16

    We investigated the millennial variability of global BVOC emissions by using two independent numerical models: The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), for isoprene, monoterpene and sesquiterpene and Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ8 GUESS), for isoprene and monoterpenes. We found the millennial trends of global isoprene emissions to be mostly affected by land cover and atmospheric carbon dioxide changes, whereas monoterpene and sesquiterpene emission were dominated by temperature change. Isoprene emissions declined substantially in regions with large and rapid land cover change. In addition, isoprene emission sensitivity to drought proved to have signicant short term global effects. By the end of the past millennium MEGAN isoprene emissions were 634 TgC yr-1 (13% and 19% less than during during 1750-1850 and 1000- 15 1200, respectively) and LPJ-GUESS emissions were 323 TgC yr-1 (15% and 20% less than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively). Monoterpene emissions were 89 TgC yr-1 (10% and 6% higher than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively) in MEGAN, and 24 TgC yr-1 (2% higher and 5% 19 20 less than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively) in LPJ-GUESS. MEGAN sesquiterpene emissions were 36 TgC yr-1 (10% and 4% higher than during1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively). Although both models capture similar We investigated the millennial variability of global BVOC emissions by using two independent numerical models: The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), for isoprene, monoterpene and sesquiterpene and Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ8GUESS), for isoprene and monoterpenes. We found the millennial trends ofglobal isoprene emissions to be mostly a*ected by land cover and atmospheric carbon dioxide changes, whereas monoterpene and sesquiterpene emission were dominated by temperature change. Isoprene emissions declined substantially in regions with large and rapid

  2. Trends and Projected Estimates of GHG Emissions from Indian Livestock in Comparisons with GHG Emissions from World and Developing Countries

    Amlan Kumar Patra

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This study presents trends and projected estimates of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from livestock of India vis-à-vis world and developing countries over the period 1961 to 2010 estimated based on IPCC guidelines. World enteric methane emission (EME increased by 54.3% (61.5 to 94.9 ×109 kg annually from the year 1961 to 2010, and the highest annual growth rate (AGR was noted for goat (2.0%, followed by buffalo (1.57% and swine (1.53%. Global EME is projected to increase to 120×109 kg by 2050. The percentage increase in EME by Indian livestock was greater than world livestock (70.6% vs 54.3% between the years 1961 to 2010, and AGR was highest for goat (1.91%, followed by buffalo (1.55%, swine (1.28%, sheep (1.25% and cattle (0.70%. In India, total EME was projected to grow by 18.8×109 kg in 2050. Global methane emission from manure (MEM increased from 6.81 ×109 kg in 1961 to 11.4×109 kg in 2010 (an increase of 67.6%, and is projected to grow to 15×109 kg by 2050. In India, the annual MEM increased from 0.52×109 kg to 1.1×109 kg (with an AGR of 1.57% in this period, which could increase to 1.54×109 kg in 2050. Nitrous oxide emission from manure in India could be 21.4×106 kg in 2050 from 15.3×106 kg in 2010. The AGR of global GHG emissions changed a small extent (only 0.11% from developed countries, but increased drastically (1.23% for developing countries between the periods of 1961 to 2010. Major contributions to world GHG came from cattle (79.3%, swine (9.57% and sheep (7.40%, and for developing countries from cattle (68.3%, buffalo (13.7% and goat (5.4%. The increase of GHG emissions by Indian livestock was less (74% vs 82% over the period of 1961 to 2010 than the developing countries. With this trend, world GHG emissions could reach 3,520×109 kg CO2-eq by 2050 due to animal population growth driven by increased demands for meat and dairy products in the world.

  3. Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends.

    Marotzke, Jochem; Forster, Piers M

    2015-01-29

    Most present-generation climate models simulate an increase in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) since 1998, whereas observations suggest a warming hiatus. It is unclear to what extent this mismatch is caused by incorrect model forcing, by incorrect model response to forcing or by random factors. Here we analyse simulations and observations of GMST from 1900 to 2012, and show that the distribution of simulated 15-year trends shows no systematic bias against the observations. Using a multiple regression approach that is physically motivated by surface energy balance, we isolate the impact of radiative forcing, climate feedback and ocean heat uptake on GMST--with the regression residual interpreted as internal variability--and assess all possible 15- and 62-year trends. The differences between simulated and observed trends are dominated by random internal variability over the shorter timescale and by variations in the radiative forcings used to drive models over the longer timescale. For either trend length, spread in simulated climate feedback leaves no traceable imprint on GMST trends or, consequently, on the difference between simulations and observations. The claim that climate models systematically overestimate the response to radiative forcing from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations therefore seems to be unfounded.

  4. A two-dimensional model study of past trends in global ozone

    Wuebbles, D.J.; Kinnison, D.E.

    1988-08-01

    Emissions and atmospheric concentrations of several trace gases important to atmospheric chemistry are known to have increased substantially over recent decades. Solar flux variations and the atmospheric nuclear test series are also likely to have affected stratospheric ozone. In this study, the LLNL two-dimensional chemical-radiative-transport model of the troposphere and stratosphere has been applied to an analysis of the effects that these natural and anthropogenic influences may have had on global ozone concentrations over the last three decades. In general, model determined species distributions and the derived ozone trends agree well with published analyses of land-based and satellite-based observations. Also, the total ozone and ozone distribution trends derived from CFC and other trace gas effects have a different response with latitude than the derived trends from solar flux variations, thus providing a ''signature'' for anthropogenic effects on ozone. 24 refs., 5 figs

  5. International marine and aviation bunker fuel. Trends, ranking of countries and comparison with national CO2 emission

    Olivier, J.G.J.; Peters, J.A.H.W.

    1999-01-01

    This report summarises and characterises fuel consumption and associated CO2 emissions from international transport based on energy statistics compiled by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Shares in 1990 and 1970-1995 trends in national and global bunker fuel consumption and associated CO2 emissions are analysed for marine and air transport. Also, the global total of international transport emissions are compared with national emissions and domestic transport emissions. During the last 25 years the average global annual increase was for marine bunkers about 0.8% and for aviation emissions about 3.3%. Annual variations per country of marine bunker fuel use larger than of aviation fuel use, sometimes more than 50%. However, the distinction between fuel use for domestic and for international aviation is more difficult to monitor. The dominant fuel in marine bunker fuel consumption is residual fuel oil ('heavy fuel oil'). The share of diesel oil has slowly increased from 11% in 1970 to 20% in 1990. Aviation fuels sold are predominantly jet fuel ('jet kerosene'). The small share of aviation gasoline is slowly decreasing: from about 4% in 1970 to 1.3% in 1990. Carbon dioxide emissions from combustion of international marine bunker fuels and aviation contributed in 1990 globally about 1.8% and 2.4% expressed as percentage of global total anthropogenic emissions (excluding deforestation). However, aviation emissions include an unknown part of domestic aviation. When comparing with total transport emissions, then international transport has a share of 20%. For both marine and aviation bunker fuel, the Top-10 of largest consuming countries account for about 2/3 of the global total; the Top-25 countries cover already 85% or more of global total CO2 emissions

  6. Driving forces: Motor vehicle trends and their implications for global warming, energy strategies, and transportation planning

    MacKenzie, J.J.; Walsh, M.P.

    1990-01-01

    Cars, trucks, and other vehicles have long been linked to smog and other urban pollution, but the part they play in the larger complex of atmospheric and energy ills that we now face is often overlooked. In Driving Forces: Motor Vehicle Trends and Their Implications for Global Warming, Energy Strategies, and Transportation Planning, James J. MacKenzie, senior associate in World Resources Institute's Program in Climate, Energy, and Pollution, and Michael P. Walsh, an international consultant on transportation and environmental issues, fill in this knowledge gap with new data and analyses. They spell out four policy shifts that can help hold the line on global warming: improve new-vehicle efficiency; make transportation more efficient; cut other greenhouse gas emissions; create the green car of the future. The report focuses especially on the US, which pioneered the automotive revolution and leads the world in oil imports and emissions

  7. Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

    Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.

    2014-06-01

    In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable detail on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). With global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector in the range of 128-171 EJ across the four scenarios, global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of non-methane total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM) in the year 2030. At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two

  8. CO{sub 2} emission calculations and trends

    Boden, T.A.; Marland, G. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Andres, R.J. [Alaska Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). Inst. of Northern Engineering

    1995-12-31

    Evidence that the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration has risen during the past several decades is irrefutable. Most of the observed increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} is believed to result from CO{sub 2} releases from fossil-fuel burning. The United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), signed in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992, reflects global concern over the increasing CO{sub 2} concentration and its potential impact on climate. One of the convention`s stated objectives was the ``stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. `` Specifically, the FCCC asked all 154 signing countries to conduct an inventory of their current greenhouse gas emissions, and it set nonbinding targets for some countries to control emissions by stabilizing them at 1990 levels by the year 2000. Given the importance of CO{sub 2} as a greenhouse gas, the relationship between CO{sub 2} emissions and increases in atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels, and the potential impacts of a greenhouse gas-induced climate change; it is important that comprehensive CO{sub 2} emissions records be compiled, maintained, updated, and documented.

  9. CO{sub 2} Emission Calculations and Trends

    Boden, T. A.; Marland, G.; Andres, R. J.

    1995-06-01

    Evidence that the atmospheric CO{sub 2}concentration has risen during the past several decades is irrefutable. Most of the observed increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} is believed to result from CO{sub 2} releases from fossil-fuel burning. The United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), signed in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992, reflects global concern over the increasing CO{sub 2} concentration and its potential impact on climate. One of the convention`s stated objectives was the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Specifically, the FCCC asked all 154 signing countries to conduct an inventory of their current greenhouse gas emissions, and it set nonbinding targets for some countries to control emissions by stabilizing them at 1990 levels by the year 2000. Given the importance of CO{sub 2} as a greenhouse gas, the relationship between CO{sub 2} emissions and increases in atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels, and the potential impacts of a greenhouse gas-induced climate change; it is important that comprehensive CO{sub 2} emissions records be compiled, maintained, updated, and documented.

  10. Global ocean carbon uptake: magnitude, variability and trends

    R. Wanninkhof

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The globally integrated sea–air anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2 flux from 1990 to 2009 is determined from models and data-based approaches as part of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP project. Numerical methods include ocean inverse models, atmospheric inverse models, and ocean general circulation models with parameterized biogeochemistry (OBGCMs. The median value of different approaches shows good agreement in average uptake. The best estimate of anthropogenic CO2 uptake for the time period based on a compilation of approaches is −2.0 Pg C yr−1. The interannual variability in the sea–air flux is largely driven by large-scale climate re-organizations and is estimated at 0.2 Pg C yr−1 for the two decades with some systematic differences between approaches. The largest differences between approaches are seen in the decadal trends. The trends range from −0.13 (Pg C yr−1 decade−1 to −0.50 (Pg C yr−1 decade−1 for the two decades under investigation. The OBGCMs and the data-based sea–air CO2 flux estimates show appreciably smaller decadal trends than estimates based on changes in carbon inventory suggesting that methods capable of resolving shorter timescales are showing a slowing of the rate of ocean CO2 uptake. RECCAP model outputs for five decades show similar differences in trends between approaches.

  11. Depiction of global trends in publications on mobile health

    Shahla Foozonkhah

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Variety of mobile health initiatives in different levels have been undertaken across many countries. Trends of these initiatives can be reflected in the research published in m-health domain. Aim: This paper aims to depict global trends in the published works on m-health topic. Materials and Methods: The Web of Science database was used to identify all relevant published papers on mobile health domain worldwide. The search was conducted on documents published from January 1898 to December 2014. The criteria for searching were set to be “mHealth” or “Mobile health” or “m health” or “m_health” or “m-health” in topics. Results: Findings revealed an increasing trend of citations and publications on m-health research since 2012. English was the first most predominant language of the publication. The US had the highest number of publication with 649 papers; however, the Netherlands ranked first after considering publication number in terms of countries population. “Studies in Health Technology and Informatics” was the source title with highest number of publications on mobile health topics. Conclusion: Trend of research observed in this study indicates the continuing growth is happening in mobile health domain. This may imply that the new model of health-care delivery is emerging. Further research is needed to specify directions of mobile health research. It is necessary to identify and prioritize the research gaps in this domain.

  12. Monthly, global emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel consumption

    Andres, R.J.; Gregg, Jay Sterling; Losey, L.

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines available data, develops a strategy and presents a monthly, global time series of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions for the years 1950–2006. This monthly time series was constructed from detailed study of monthly data from the 21 countries that account for approximately 80......% of global total emissions. These data were then used in a Monte Carlo approach to proxy for all remaining countries. The proportional-proxy methodology estimates by fuel group the fraction of annual emissions emitted in each country and month. Emissions from solid, liquid and gas fuels are explicitly...

  13. From carbonization to decarbonization?-Past trends and future scenarios for China's CO2 emissions

    Steckel, Jan Christoph; Jakob, Michael; Marschinski, Robert; Luderer, Gunnar

    2011-01-01

    Along the lines of the Kaya identity, we perform a decomposition analysis of historical and projected emissions data for China. We compare the results with reduction requirements implied by globally cost-effective mitigation scenarios and official Chinese policy targets. For the years 1971-2000 we find that the impact of high economic growth on emissions was partially compensated by a steady fall in energy intensity. However, the end - and even reversal - of this downward trend, along with a rising carbon intensity of energy, resulted in rapid emission growth during 2000-2007. By applying an innovative enhanced Kaya-decomposition method, we also show how the persistent increase in the use of coal has caused carbon intensity to rise throughout the entire time-horizon of the analysis. These insights are then compared to model scenarios for future energy system developments generated by the ReMIND-R model. The analysis reaffirms China's indispensable role in global efforts to implement any of three exemplary stabilization targets (400, 450, or 500 ppm CO 2 -only), and underscore the increasing importance of carbon intensity for the more ambitious targets. Finally, we compare China's official targets for energy intensity and carbon intensity of GDP to projections for global cost-effective stabilization scenarios, finding them to be roughly compatible in the short-to-mid-term. - Highlights: → An extended Kaya-decomposition is applied to historical data and ReMIND-R scenario results for China. → Reversing a historic trend, energy intensity has increased in recent years. → The contribution of coal in increasing carbon intensity and emissions has been constant in the past. → Decarbonization becomes increasingly important with increasingly ambitious climate targets. → Chinese targets for carbon intensity of GDP are in line with a 450 ppm CO 2 -only stabilization scenario.

  14. Drivers of Global Vegetation Biomass Trends between 1988 and 2008

    McCabe, Matthew

    2013-12-01

    Vegetation optical depth (VOD) is an indicator of the vegetation water content of both woody and leaf components in terrestrial biomass as derived from passive microwave observations. VOD is distinctly different from products derived from optical remote sensing: it is less prone to saturation in dense canopy; is sensitive to both photosynthetic and non-photosynthetic biomass; is less affected by atmospheric conditions; and is of coarser spatial resolution. Here, VOD retrievals from a series of sensors are blended to produce a time series from 1988 through to 2008, and a global analysis is undertaken to quantify and attribute global VOD trends over the same period. We conduct Mann-Kendall linear trend tests on annual average VOD to identify regions of significant change. Patterns for these regions were evaluated against independent datasets to diagnose the underlying cause of the observed trends. Results indicate that: (1) over grassland and shrubland, VOD patterns correspond strongly to temporal precipitation patterns; (2) over croplands, annual average VOD shows a general increase that corresponds to reported crop yield patterns and can be attributed to a combination of precipitation patterns and agricultural improvement; (3) over humid tropical forest, the spatial pattern of VOD decline agrees well with deforestation patterns identified in previous studies; and (4) over boreal forests, regional VOD declines can be attributed to a combination of fires and logging. We conclude that VOD can be used to estimate and interpret global changes in total above ground vegetation biomass. We expect that this new observationally based remote sensing data source will be of considerable interest to hydrological, agricultural, climate change and carbon cycle studies, and provide new insights into these and related process investigations.

  15. Drivers of Global Vegetation Biomass Trends between 1988 and 2008

    McCabe, Matthew; Liu, Yi; Evans, Jason; De Jeu, Richard; van Dijk, Albert

    2013-01-01

    Vegetation optical depth (VOD) is an indicator of the vegetation water content of both woody and leaf components in terrestrial biomass as derived from passive microwave observations. VOD is distinctly different from products derived from optical remote sensing: it is less prone to saturation in dense canopy; is sensitive to both photosynthetic and non-photosynthetic biomass; is less affected by atmospheric conditions; and is of coarser spatial resolution. Here, VOD retrievals from a series of sensors are blended to produce a time series from 1988 through to 2008, and a global analysis is undertaken to quantify and attribute global VOD trends over the same period. We conduct Mann-Kendall linear trend tests on annual average VOD to identify regions of significant change. Patterns for these regions were evaluated against independent datasets to diagnose the underlying cause of the observed trends. Results indicate that: (1) over grassland and shrubland, VOD patterns correspond strongly to temporal precipitation patterns; (2) over croplands, annual average VOD shows a general increase that corresponds to reported crop yield patterns and can be attributed to a combination of precipitation patterns and agricultural improvement; (3) over humid tropical forest, the spatial pattern of VOD decline agrees well with deforestation patterns identified in previous studies; and (4) over boreal forests, regional VOD declines can be attributed to a combination of fires and logging. We conclude that VOD can be used to estimate and interpret global changes in total above ground vegetation biomass. We expect that this new observationally based remote sensing data source will be of considerable interest to hydrological, agricultural, climate change and carbon cycle studies, and provide new insights into these and related process investigations.

  16. Mercury from wildfires: Global emission inventories and sensitivity to 2000-2050 global change

    Kumar, Aditya; Wu, Shiliang; Huang, Yaoxian; Liao, Hong; Kaplan, Jed O.

    2018-01-01

    We estimate the global Hg wildfire emissions for the 2000s and the potential impacts from the 2000-2050 changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions by combining statistical analysis with global data on vegetation type and coverage as well as fire activities. Global Hg wildfire emissions are estimated to be 612 Mg year-1. Africa is the dominant source region (43.8% of global emissions), followed by Eurasia (31%) and South America (16.6%). We find significant perturbations to wildfire emissions of Hg in the context of global change, driven by the projected changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions. 2000-2050 climate change could increase Hg emissions by 14% globally and regionally by 18% for South America, 14% for Africa and 13% for Eurasia. Projected changes in land use by 2050 could decrease the global Hg emissions from wildfires by 13% mainly driven by a decline in African emissions due to significant agricultural land expansion. Future land cover changes could lead to significant increases in Hg emissions over some regions (+32% North America, +14% Africa, +13% Eurasia). Potential enrichment of terrestrial ecosystems in 2050 in response to changes in Hg anthropogenic emissions could increase Hg wildfire emissions globally (+28%) and regionally (+19% North America, +20% South America, +24% Africa, +41% Eurasia). Our results indicate that the future evolution of climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions are all important factors affecting Hg wildfire emissions in the coming decades.

  17. Emission of greenhouse gases 1990-2010. Trends and driving forces

    NONE

    2013-03-01

    Emissions of greenhouse gases in Norway from 1990-2010 - trends and driving forces, a report that presents emission trends in Norway with the analysis of the main drivers and trends, and a review and analysis of the effectiveness of implemented measures.(Author)

  18. Multilingual trends in a globalized world prospects and challenges

    Singh, Navin Kumar

    2013-01-01

    This book presents evolving language education trends by drawing examples and case studies from around the world. Over the past few decades, significant economic and political changes have taken place around the world which have had a significant impact on language teaching and learning practices across the globe. With globalization, the focus of language education has shifted from monolingualism towards bilingualism and multilingualism, in that multilingual practices have become the norm rather than the exception in most parts of the world. This book brings together some of latest controversi

  19. Increasing global crop harvest frequency: recent trends and future directions

    Ray, Deepak K; Foley, Jonathan A

    2013-01-01

    The world’s agricultural systems face the challenge of meeting the rising demands from population growth, changing dietary preferences, and expanding biofuel use. Previous studies have put forward strategies for meeting this growing demand by increasing global crop production, either expanding the area under cultivation or intensifying the crop yields of our existing agricultural lands. However, another possible means for increasing global crop production has received less attention: increasing the frequency of global cropland harvested each year. Historically, many of the world’s croplands were left fallow, or had failed harvests, each year, foregoing opportunities for delivering crop production. Furthermore, many regions, particularly in the tropics, may be capable of multiple harvests per year, often more than are harvested today. Here we analyze a global compilation of agricultural statistics to show how the world’s harvested cropland has changed. Between 2000 and 2011, harvested land area grew roughly 4 times faster than total standing cropland area. Using a metric of cropland harvest frequency (CHF)—the ratio of land harvested each year to the total standing cropland—and its recent trends, we identify countries that harvest their croplands more frequently, and those that have the potential to increase their cropland harvest frequency. We suggest that a possible ‘harvest gap’ may exist in many countries that represents an opportunity to increase crop production on existing agricultural lands. However, increasing the harvest frequency of existing croplands could have significant environmental and social impacts, which need careful evaluation. (letter)

  20. Global Fire Emissions Indicators, Grids: 1997-2015

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Fire Emissions Indicators, Grids: 1997-2015 contain a time-series of rasters from 1997 to 2015 for total area burned (hectares) and total carbon content...

  1. Global EDGAR v4.1 emissions of air pollutants: analysis of impacts of emissions abatement in industry and road transport on regional and global scale

    Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Olivier, J. G.; Doering, U. M.; van Aardenne, J.; Monni, S.; Pagliari, V.; Peters, J. A.

    2010-12-01

    The new version v4.1 of the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) compiled by JRC and PBL provides independent estimates of the global anthropogenic emissions and emission trends of precursors of tropospheric ozone (CO, NMVOC, NOx) and acidifying substances (NOx, NH3, SO2) for the period 1970-2005. All emissions are detailed at country level consistently using the same technology-based methodology, combining activity data (international statistics) from publicly available sources and to the extent possible emission factors as recommended by the EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook. By using high resolution global grid maps per source category of area sources and point sources, we also compiled datasets with annual emissions on a 0.1x0.1 degree grid, as input for atmospheric models. We provide full and up-to-date inventories per country, also for developing countries. Moreover, the time series back in time to 1970 provides for the trends in official national inventories a historic perspective. As part of our objective to contribute to more reliable inventories by providing a reference emissions database for emission scenarios, inventory comparisons and for atmospheric modellers, we strive to transparently document all data sources used and assumptions made where data was missing, in particular for assumptions made on the shares of technologies where relevant. Technology mixes per country or region were taken from other data sources (such as the Platts database) or estimated using other sources or countries as proxy. The evolution in the adoption of technologies world-wide over the 35 years covered by EDGAR v4.1 will be illustrated for the power industry and the road transport sectors, in particular for Europe and the US. Similarly the regional and global impacts of implemented control measures and end-of pipe abatements will be illustrated by the examples of - NOx and SO2 end-of pipe abatements being implemented since the late

  2. Compilation of a global inventory of emissions of nitrous oxide

    Bouwman, A.F.

    1995-01-01

    A global inventory with 1°x1° resolution was compiled of emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) to the atmosphere, including emissions from soils under natural vegetation, fertilized agricultural land, grasslands and animal excreta, biomass burning, forest clearing,

  3. Global and regional drivers of land-use emissions 1961-2013

    Davis, S. J.; Burney, J. A.; Pongratz, J.; Hansis, E.

    2017-12-01

    Historically, human land use, including conversion of natural landscapes, has disrupted ecosystems worldwide, degraded global biodiversity, and added tremendous quantities of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere1-5. Yet, in contrast to fossil fuel emissions, trends and drivers of land use and related GHG emissions are usually assessed only for specific regions, processes, or products. Here, we present a comprehensive, country-level inventory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land use and land-use change from 1961-2013, decompose the demographic, economic and technical drivers of these emissions, and assess the sensitivity of results to different units of measurement and accounting assumptions. Globally, annual land use emissions (CO2-eq) have decreased between 1961 and 2013 (-32% in our central case), reflecting a balance between steady increases in agricultural production per capita (+42%) and equally persistent declines in the land required per unit of agricultural production (-65%), and emissions per area of land used (-41%). A few regions, processes, and products account for the majority of land use emissions: Latin America, Southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa represent 55% of net cumulative emissions 1961-2013, conversion to cropland and pasture and enteric fermentation represent 103%, and cereal, dairy and beef products together represent 83%. Our results suggest that the emissions intensity of agricultural production is a particularly important indicator of agriculture's climate impact, where targeted reductions could substantially reduce that impact.

  4. Globalization and pollution: tele-connecting local primary PM2.5 emissions to global consumption

    Meng, Jing; Liu, Junfeng; Xu, Yuan; Guan, Dabo; Liu, Zhu; Huang, Ye; Tao, Shu

    2016-11-01

    Globalization pushes production and consumption to geographically diverse locations and generates a variety of sizeable opportunities and challenges. The distribution and associated effects of short-lived primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a representative of local pollution, are significantly affected by the consumption through global supply chain. Tele-connection is used here to represent the link between production and consumption activity at large distances. In this study, we develop a global consumption-based primary PM2.5 emission inventory to track primary PM2.5 emissions embodied in the supply chain and evaluate the extent to which local PM2.5 emissions are triggered by international trade. We further adopt consumption-based accounting and identify the global original source that produced the emissions. We find that anthropogenic PM2.5 emissions from industrial sectors accounted for 24 Tg globally in 2007; approximately 30% (7.2 Tg) of these emissions were embodied in export of products principally from Brazil, South Africa, India and China (3.8 Tg) to developed countries. Large differences (up to 10 times) in the embodied emissions intensity between net importers and exporters greatly increased total global PM2.5 emissions. Tele-connecting production and consumption activity provides valuable insights with respect to mitigating long-range transboundary air pollution and prompts concerted efforts aiming at more environmentally conscious globalization.

  5. Globalization and pollution: tele-connecting local primary PM2.5 emissions to global consumption

    Meng, Jing; Xu, Yuan; Guan, Dabo; Liu, Zhu; Huang, Ye; Tao, Shu

    2016-01-01

    Globalization pushes production and consumption to geographically diverse locations and generates a variety of sizeable opportunities and challenges. The distribution and associated effects of short-lived primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a representative of local pollution, are significantly affected by the consumption through global supply chain. Tele-connection is used here to represent the link between production and consumption activity at large distances. In this study, we develop a global consumption-based primary PM2.5 emission inventory to track primary PM2.5 emissions embodied in the supply chain and evaluate the extent to which local PM2.5 emissions are triggered by international trade. We further adopt consumption-based accounting and identify the global original source that produced the emissions. We find that anthropogenic PM2.5 emissions from industrial sectors accounted for 24 Tg globally in 2007; approximately 30% (7.2 Tg) of these emissions were embodied in export of products principally from Brazil, South Africa, India and China (3.8 Tg) to developed countries. Large differences (up to 10 times) in the embodied emissions intensity between net importers and exporters greatly increased total global PM2.5 emissions. Tele-connecting production and consumption activity provides valuable insights with respect to mitigating long-range transboundary air pollution and prompts concerted efforts aiming at more environmentally conscious globalization. PMID:27956874

  6. Globalization and pollution: tele-connecting local primary PM2.5 emissions to global consumption.

    Meng, Jing; Liu, Junfeng; Xu, Yuan; Guan, Dabo; Liu, Zhu; Huang, Ye; Tao, Shu

    2016-11-01

    Globalization pushes production and consumption to geographically diverse locations and generates a variety of sizeable opportunities and challenges. The distribution and associated effects of short-lived primary fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), a representative of local pollution, are significantly affected by the consumption through global supply chain. Tele-connection is used here to represent the link between production and consumption activity at large distances. In this study, we develop a global consumption-based primary PM 2.5 emission inventory to track primary PM 2.5 emissions embodied in the supply chain and evaluate the extent to which local PM 2.5 emissions are triggered by international trade. We further adopt consumption-based accounting and identify the global original source that produced the emissions. We find that anthropogenic PM 2.5 emissions from industrial sectors accounted for 24 Tg globally in 2007; approximately 30% (7.2 Tg) of these emissions were embodied in export of products principally from Brazil, South Africa, India and China (3.8 Tg) to developed countries. Large differences (up to 10 times) in the embodied emissions intensity between net importers and exporters greatly increased total global PM 2.5 emissions. Tele-connecting production and consumption activity provides valuable insights with respect to mitigating long-range transboundary air pollution and prompts concerted efforts aiming at more environmentally conscious globalization.

  7. Upward revision of global fossil fuel methane emissions based on isotope database.

    Schwietzke, Stefan; Sherwood, Owen A; Bruhwiler, Lori M P; Miller, John B; Etiope, Giuseppe; Dlugokencky, Edward J; Michel, Sylvia Englund; Arling, Victoria A; Vaughn, Bruce H; White, James W C; Tans, Pieter P

    2016-10-06

    Methane has the second-largest global radiative forcing impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gases after carbon dioxide, but our understanding of the global atmospheric methane budget is incomplete. The global fossil fuel industry (production and usage of natural gas, oil and coal) is thought to contribute 15 to 22 per cent of methane emissions to the total atmospheric methane budget. However, questions remain regarding methane emission trends as a result of fossil fuel industrial activity and the contribution to total methane emissions of sources from the fossil fuel industry and from natural geological seepage, which are often co-located. Here we re-evaluate the global methane budget and the contribution of the fossil fuel industry to methane emissions based on long-term global methane and methane carbon isotope records. We compile the largest isotopic methane source signature database so far, including fossil fuel, microbial and biomass-burning methane emission sources. We find that total fossil fuel methane emissions (fossil fuel industry plus natural geological seepage) are not increasing over time, but are 60 to 110 per cent greater than current estimates owing to large revisions in isotope source signatures. We show that this is consistent with the observed global latitudinal methane gradient. After accounting for natural geological methane seepage, we find that methane emissions from natural gas, oil and coal production and their usage are 20 to 60 per cent greater than inventories. Our findings imply a greater potential for the fossil fuel industry to mitigate anthropogenic climate forcing, but we also find that methane emissions from natural gas as a fraction of production have declined from approximately 8 per cent to approximately 2 per cent over the past three decades.

  8. Lived experience of economic and political trends related to globalization.

    Cushon, Jennifer A; Muhajarine, Nazeem; Labonte, Ronald

    2010-01-01

    A multi-method case study examined how the economic and political processes of globalization have influenced the determinants of health among low-income children in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada. This paper presents the results from the qualitative interview component of the case study. The purpose of the interviews was to uncover the lived experience of low-income families and their children in Saskatoon with regards to political and economic trends related to globalization, an important addition to the usual globalization and health research that relies primarily on cross-country regressions in which the personal impacts remain hidden. In-depth phenomenological interviews with 26 low-income parents of young children (aged zero to five) who were residents of Saskatoon. A combination of volunteer and criterion sampling was used. Interview questions were open-ended and based upon an analytical framework. Analysis proceeded through immersion in the data, a process of open coding, and finally through a process of selective coding. The larger case study and interviews indicate that globalization has largely not been benefiting low-income parents with young children. Low-income families with young children were struggling to survive, despite the tremendous economic growth occurring in Saskatchewan and Saskatoon at the time of the interviews. This often led to participants expressing a sense of helplessness, despair, isolation, and/or anger. Respondents' experiences suggest that globalization-related changes in social conditions and public policies and programs have great potential to negatively affect family health through either psychosocial effects in individuals and/or decreased levels of social cohesion in the community.

  9. Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends Data

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends report is the authoritative reference for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions,...

  10. Influence of travel behavior on global CO2 emissions

    Girod, B.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Vries, B. de

    2013-01-01

    Travel demand is rising steeply and its contribution to global CO2 emissions is increasing. Different studies have shown possible mitigation through technological options, but so far few studies have evaluated the implications of changing travel behavior on global travel demand, energy use and CO2

  11. Spatially explicit trends in the global conservation status of vertebrates.

    Rodrigues, Ana S L; Brooks, Thomas M; Butchart, Stuart H M; Chanson, Janice; Cox, Neil; Hoffmann, Michael; Stuart, Simon N

    2014-01-01

    The world's governments have committed to preventing the extinction of threatened species and improving their conservation status by 2020. However, biodiversity is not evenly distributed across space, and neither are the drivers of its decline, and so different regions face very different challenges. Here, we quantify the contribution of regions and countries towards recent global trends in vertebrate conservation status (as measured by the Red List Index), to guide action towards the 2020 target. We found that>50% of the global deterioration in the conservation status of birds, mammals and amphibians is concentrated in nations (e.g. Cook Islands, Fiji, Mauritius, Seychelles, and Tonga), have achieved net improvements. Per capita wealth does not explain these patterns, with two of the richest countries - United States and Australia - fairing conspicuously poorly. Different countries were affected by different combinations of threats. Reducing global rates of biodiversity loss will require investment in the regions and countries with the highest responsibility for the world's biodiversity, focusing on conserving those species and areas most in peril and on reducing the drivers with the highest impacts.

  12. International trade of health services: global trends and local impact.

    Lautier, Marc

    2014-10-01

    Globalization is a key challenge facing health policy-makers. A significant dimension of this is trade in health services. Traditionally, the flow of health services exports went from North to South, with patients travelling in the opposite direction. This situation is changing and a number of papers have discussed the growth of health services exports from Southern countries in its different dimensions. Less attention has been paid to assess the real scope of this trade at the global level and its potential impact at the local level. Given the rapid development of this area, there are little empirical data. This paper therefore first built an estimate of the global size and of the growth trend of international trade in health services since 1997, which is compared with several country-based studies. The second purpose of the paper is to demonstrate the significant economic impact of this trade at the local level for the exporting country. We consider the case of health providers in the South-Mediterranean region for which the demand potential, the economic effects and the consequence for the health system are presented. These issues lead to the overall conclusion that different policy options would be appropriate, in relation to the nature of the demand. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Pakistan: National Trends and Global Perspective

    Hafeez Bhatti, Abu Bakar; Dar, Faisal Saud; Waheed, Anum; Shafique, Kashif; Sultan, Faisal; Shah, Najmul Hassan

    2016-01-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) ranks second amongst all causes of cancer deaths globally. It is on a rise in Pakistan and might represent the most common cancer in adult males. Pakistan contributes significantly to global burden of hepatitis C, which is a known risk factor for HCC, and has one of the highest prevalence rates (>3%) in the world. In the absence of a national cancer registry and screening programs, prevalence of hepatitis and HCC only represents estimates of the real magnitude of this problem. In this review, we present various aspects of HCC in Pakistan, comparing and contrasting it with the global trends in cancer care. There is a general lack of awareness regarding risk factors of HCC in Pakistani population and prevalence of hepatitis C has increased. In addition, less common risk factors are also on a rise. Majority of patients present with advanced HCC and are not eligible for definitive treatment. We have attempted to highlight issues that have a significant bearing on HCC outcome in Pakistan. A set of strategies have been put forth that can potentially help reduce incidence and improve HCC outcome on national level. PMID:26955390

  14. Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Pakistan: National Trends and Global Perspective

    Abu Bakar Hafeez Bhatti

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC ranks second amongst all causes of cancer deaths globally. It is on a rise in Pakistan and might represent the most common cancer in adult males. Pakistan contributes significantly to global burden of hepatitis C, which is a known risk factor for HCC, and has one of the highest prevalence rates (>3% in the world. In the absence of a national cancer registry and screening programs, prevalence of hepatitis and HCC only represents estimates of the real magnitude of this problem. In this review, we present various aspects of HCC in Pakistan, comparing and contrasting it with the global trends in cancer care. There is a general lack of awareness regarding risk factors of HCC in Pakistani population and prevalence of hepatitis C has increased. In addition, less common risk factors are also on a rise. Majority of patients present with advanced HCC and are not eligible for definitive treatment. We have attempted to highlight issues that have a significant bearing on HCC outcome in Pakistan. A set of strategies have been put forth that can potentially help reduce incidence and improve HCC outcome on national level.

  15. Global organic carbon emissions from primary sources from 1960 to 2009

    Huang, Ye; Shen, Huizhong; Chen, Yilin; Zhong, Qirui; Chen, Han; Wang, Rong; Shen, Guofeng; Liu, Junfeng; Li, Bengang; Tao, Shu

    2015-12-01

    In an attempt to reduce uncertainty, global organic carbon (OC) emissions from a total of 70 sources were compiled at 0.1° × 0.1° resolution for 2007 (PKU-OC-2007) and country scale from 1960 to 2009. The compilation took advantage of a new fuel-consumption data product (PKU-Fuel-2007) and a series of newly published emission factors (EFOC) in developing countries. The estimated OC emissions were 32.9 Tg (24.1-50.6 Tg as interquartile range), of which less than one third was anthropogenic in origin. Uncertainty resulted primarily from variations in EFOC. Asia, Africa, and South America had high emissions mainly because of residential biomass fuel burning or wildfires. Per-person OC emission in rural areas was three times that of urban areas because of the relatively high EFOC of residential solid fuels. Temporal trend of anthropogenic OC emissions depended on rural population, and was influenced primarily by residential crop residue and agricultural waste burning. Both the OC/PM2.5 ratio and emission intensity, defined as quantity of OC emissions per unit of fuel consumption for all sources, of anthropogenic OC followed a decreasing trend, indicating continuous improvement in combustion efficiency and control measures.

  16. The global distribution of ammonia emissions from seabird colonies

    Riddick, S. N.; Dragosits, U.; Blackall, T. D.; Daunt, F.; Wanless, S.; Sutton, M. A.

    2012-08-01

    Seabird colonies represent a significant source of atmospheric ammonia (NH3) in remote maritime systems, producing a source of nitrogen that may encourage plant growth, alter terrestrial plant community composition and affect the surrounding marine ecosystem. To investigate seabird NH3 emissions on a global scale, we developed a contemporary seabird database including a total seabird population of 261 million breeding pairs. We used this in conjunction with a bioenergetics model to estimate the mass of nitrogen excreted by all seabirds at each breeding colony. The results combined with the findings of mid-latitude field studies of volatilization rates estimate the global distribution of NH3 emissions from seabird colonies on an annual basis. The largest uncertainty in our emission estimate concerns the potential temperature dependence of NH3 emission. To investigate this we calculated and compared temperature independent emission estimates with a maximum feasible temperature dependent emission, based on the thermodynamic dissociation and solubility equilibria. Using the temperature independent approach, we estimate global NH3 emissions from seabird colonies at 404 Gg NH3 per year. By comparison, since most seabirds are located in relatively cold circumpolar locations, the thermodynamically dependent estimate is 136 Gg NH3 per year. Actual global emissions are expected to be within these bounds, as other factors, such as non-linear interactions with water availability and surface infiltration, moderate the theoretical temperature response. Combining sources of error from temperature (±49%), seabird population estimates (±36%), variation in diet composition (±23%) and non-breeder attendance (±13%), gives a mid estimate with an overall uncertainty range of NH3 emission from seabird colonies of 270 [97-442] Gg NH3 per year. These emissions are environmentally relevant as they primarily occur as "hot-spots" in otherwise pristine environments with low anthropogenic

  17. Mapping 1995 global anthropogenic emissions of mercury

    Pacyna, Jozef M.; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Wilson, Simon

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents maps of anthropogenic Hg emissions worldwide within a 1degrees x 1degrees latitude/longitude grid system in 1995. As such, the paper is designed for modelers simulating the Hg transport within air masses and Hg deposition to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Maps of total Hg

  18. Global Energy Market Trends and Learnings from German's Energiewende

    Kluesener, P.

    2016-01-01

    COP21 is the cornerstone for the decarbonization of energy markets globally: for the first time a commitment for the reduction of GHG emissions was reached on a global level. Although the national emission reduction contributions (INDC) don't yet fulfill a 2 degree of C path, they mark a big move in mind set for the need of emission reduction to limit climate change. But how can this goal be reached while sustaining energy supply security and affordability of energy. Germany is a pioneer in terms of a radical change of national energy system, but is the German 'Energiewende' a blue-line print for energy transition in general? Germany has made big progress in the installation of renewables esp. Wind and Solar PV. Installed capacity for Wind and Solar power reached more than 80 GW in 2015, but new installations esp. for Solar PV have significantly slowed down in the recent past after some years of record installation of 7-8 GW per year in 2010-2012. With the growing share of fluctuating renewables such and wind and solar PV the system integration became an issue. There are huge differences in Wind and Solar PV installations between the North and South of Germany. Peaks in power generation either from Wind or Solar can't be operated within the regions anymore. While the transmission line from North to South are missing and construction is substantially delayed, the temporary regional oversupply is managed more or less by power flows into neighbouring countries. Beside the technical aspects there are also economic issues. Despite significant cost reduction for renewables the EEG levy is continuously growing. Due to the regional imbalances the efforts for redispatch of conventional power plants are increasing and thereby the cost for system balance. The share of levies and taxes on retail electricity prices is above 50 percent since some years. So far the policy failed to limit the increase of retail electricity prices but affordability of energy became a greater

  19. Distinguishing the drivers of trends in land carbon fluxes and plant volatile emissions over the past three decades

    Yue, X.; Unger, N.; Zheng, Y.

    2015-08-01

    The terrestrial biosphere has experienced dramatic changes in recent decades. Estimates of historical trends in land carbon fluxes remain uncertain because long-term observations are limited on the global scale. Here, we use the Yale Interactive terrestrial Biosphere (YIBs) model to estimate decadal trends in land carbon fluxes and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) and to identify the key drivers for these changes during 1982-2011. Driven with hourly meteorology from WFDEI (WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim data), the model simulates an increasing trend of 297 Tg C a-2 in gross primary productivity (GPP) and 185 Tg C a-2 in the net primary productivity (NPP). CO2 fertilization is the main driver for the flux changes in forest ecosystems, while meteorology dominates the changes in grasslands and shrublands. Warming boosts summer GPP and NPP at high latitudes, while drought dampens carbon uptake in tropical regions. North of 30° N, increasing temperatures induce a substantial extension of 0.22 day a-1 for the growing season; however, this phenological change alone does not promote regional carbon uptake and BVOC emissions. Nevertheless, increases of LAI at peak season accounts for ~ 25 % of the trends in GPP and isoprene emissions at the northern lands. The net land sink shows statistically insignificant increases of only 3 Tg C a-2 globally because of simultaneous increases in soil respiration. In contrast, driven with alternative meteorology from MERRA (Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis), the model predicts significant increases of 59 Tg C a-2 in the land sink due to strengthened uptake in the Amazon. Global BVOC emissions are calculated using two schemes. With the photosynthesis-dependent scheme, the model predicts increases of 0.4 Tg C a-2 in isoprene emissions, which are mainly attributed to warming trends because CO2 fertilization and inhibition effects offset each other. Using the MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases

  20. Distinguishing the drivers of trends in land carbon fluxes and plant volatile emissions over the past 3 decades

    Yue, X.; Unger, N.; Zheng, Y.

    2015-10-01

    The terrestrial biosphere has experienced dramatic changes in recent decades. Estimates of historical trends in land carbon fluxes remain uncertain because long-term observations are limited on the global scale. Here, we use the Yale Interactive terrestrial Biosphere (YIBs) model to estimate decadal trends in land carbon fluxes and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) and to identify the key drivers for these changes during 1982-2011. Driven by hourly meteorology from WFDEI (WATCH forcing data methodology applied to ERA-Interim data), the model simulates an increasing trend of 297 Tg C a-2 in gross primary productivity (GPP) and 185 Tg C a-2 in the net primary productivity (NPP). CO2 fertilization is the main driver for the flux changes in forest ecosystems, while meteorology dominates the changes in grasslands and shrublands. Warming boosts summer GPP and NPP at high latitudes, while drought dampens carbon uptake in tropical regions. North of 30° N, increasing temperatures induce a substantial extension of 0.22 day a-1 for the growing season; however, this phenological change alone does not promote regional carbon uptake and BVOC emissions. Nevertheless, increases of leaf area index at peak season accounts for ~ 25 % of the trends in GPP and isoprene emissions at the northern lands. The net land sink shows statistically insignificant increases of only 3 Tg C a-2 globally because of simultaneous increases in soil respiration. Global BVOC emissions are calculated using two schemes. With the photosynthesis-dependent scheme, the model predicts increases of 0.4 Tg C a-2 in isoprene emissions, which are mainly attributed to warming trends because CO2 fertilization and inhibition effects offset each other. Using the MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature) scheme, the YIBs model simulates global reductions of 1.1 Tg C a-2 in isoprene and 0.04 Tg C a-2 in monoterpene emissions in response to the CO2 inhibition effects. Land use

  1. Scientometric trends and knowledge maps of global health systems research.

    Yao, Qiang; Chen, Kai; Yao, Lan; Lyu, Peng-hui; Yang, Tian-an; Luo, Fei; Chen, Shan-quan; He, Lu-yang; Liu, Zhi-yong

    2014-06-05

    In the last few decades, health systems research (HSR) has garnered much attention with a rapid increase in the related literature. This study aims to review and evaluate the global progress in HSR and assess the current quantitative trends. Based on data from the Web of Science database, scientometric methods and knowledge visualization techniques were applied to evaluate global scientific production and develop trends of HSR from 1900 to 2012. HSR has increased rapidly over the past 20 years. Currently, there are 28,787 research articles published in 3,674 journals that are listed in 140 Web of Science subject categories. The research in this field has mainly focused on public, environmental and occupational health (6,178, 21.46%), health care sciences and services (5,840, 20.29%), and general and internal medicine (3,783, 13.14%). The top 10 journals had published 2,969 (10.31%) articles and received 5,229 local citations and 40,271 global citations. The top 20 authors together contributed 628 papers, which accounted for a 2.18% share in the cumulative worldwide publications. The most productive author was McKee, from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, with 48 articles. In addition, USA and American institutions ranked the first in health system research productivity, with high citation times, followed by the UK and Canada. HSR is an interdisciplinary area. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries showed they are the leading nations in HSR. Meanwhile, American and Canadian institutions and the World Health Organization play a dominant role in the production, collaboration, and citation of high quality articles. Moreover, health policy and analysis research, health systems and sub-systems research, healthcare and services research, health, epidemiology and economics of communicable and non-communicable diseases, primary care research, health economics and health costs, and pharmacy of hospital have been identified as the

  2. Greenhouse gas emissions - a global challenge

    Aarebrot, Eivind; Langvik, Sveinung

    2000-01-01

    The article describes some greenhouse gas emission challenges in the Norwegian petroleum industry. Some of the conclusions are that the national taxation policies are insufficient and that international co-operation is essential in order to obtain significant pollution abatement. The mechanisms for this are not yet in place. Some possible measures are mentioned. The main solution to the problems internationally seems to be international co-operation projects generally with quota trade in order to meet the Kyoto agreement obligations

  3. Assessing historical global sulfur emission patterns for the period 1850--1990

    Lefohn, A.S. [A.S.L. and Associates, Helena, MT (United States); Husar, J.D.; Husar, R.B. [Washington Univ., St. Louis, MO (United States). Center for Air Pollution Impact and Trend Analysis; Brimblecombe, P. [Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom)

    1996-07-19

    Anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions from energy-producing and metal production activities have become an important factor in better understanding the relationship between humans and the environment. Concerns about (1) acid rain effects on the environment and (2) anthropogenic aerosols affecting possible global change have prompted interest in the transformation and fate of sulfur in the environment. One step in assessing the importance of sulfur emissions is the development of a reliable regional emission inventory of sulfur as a function of time. The objective of this research effort was to create a homogeneous database for historical sulfur emission estimates for the world. The time from 1850--1990 was selected to include the period of industrialization form the time the main production of fuels and minerals began until the most recent year for which complete production data exist. This research effort attempts to correct some of the deficiencies associated with previous global sulfur emission estimates by (1) identifying those production activities that resulted in sulfur emissions by country and (2) calculating historical emission trends by country across years. An important component of this study was the comparison of the sulfur emission results with those of previous studies.

  4. Trends in global approvals of biotech crops (1992–2014)

    Aldemita, Rhodora R; Reaño, Ian Mari E; Solis, Renando O; Hautea, Randy A

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACT With the increasing number of genetically modified (GM) events, traits, and crops that are developed to benefit the global population, approval of these technologies for food, feed, cultivation and import in each country may vary depending on needs, demand and trade interest. ISAAA established a GMO Approval Database to document global approvals of biotech crops. GM event name, crops, traits, developer, year of approval for cultivation, food/feed, import, and relevant dossiers were sourced from credible government regulatory websites and biosafety clearinghouses. This paper investigates the trends in GM approvals for food, feed and cultivation based on the number of approving countries, GM crops, events, and traits in the last 23 y (1992–2014), rationale for approval, factors influencing approvals, and their implications in GM crop adoption. Results show that in 2014, there was an accumulative increase in the number of countries granting approvals at 29 (79% developing countries) for commercial cultivation and 31 (70% developing countries) for food and 19 (80% developing developing) for feed; 2012 had the highest number of approving countries and cultivation approvals; 2011 had the highest number of country approvals for feed, and 2014 for food approvals. Herbicide tolerance trait had the highest events approved, followed by insect tolerance traits. Approvals for food product quality increased in the second decade. Maize had the highest number of events approved (single and stacked traits), and stacked traits product gradually increased which is already 30% of the total trait approvals. These results may indicate understanding and acceptance of countries to enhance regulatory capability to be able to benefit from GM crop commercialization. Hence, the paper provided information on the trends on the growth of the GM crop industry in the last 23 y which may be vital in predicting future GM crops and traits. PMID:26039675

  5. Trends in global approvals of biotech crops (1992-2014).

    Aldemita, Rhodora R; Reaño, Ian Mari E; Solis, Renando O; Hautea, Randy A

    2015-01-01

    With the increasing number of genetically modified (GM) events, traits, and crops that are developed to benefit the global population, approval of these technologies for food, feed, cultivation and import in each country may vary depending on needs, demand and trade interest. ISAAA established a GMO Approval Database to document global approvals of biotech crops. GM event name, crops, traits, developer, year of approval for cultivation, food/feed, import, and relevant dossiers were sourced from credible government regulatory websites and biosafety clearinghouses. This paper investigates the trends in GM approvals for food, feed and cultivation based on the number of approving countries, GM crops, events, and traits in the last 23 y (1992-2014), rationale for approval, factors influencing approvals, and their implications in GM crop adoption. Results show that in 2014, there was an accumulative increase in the number of countries granting approvals at 29 (79% developing countries) for commercial cultivation and 31 (70% developing countries) for food and 19 (80% developing developing) for feed; 2012 had the highest number of approving countries and cultivation approvals; 2011 had the highest number of country approvals for feed, and 2014 for food approvals. Herbicide tolerance trait had the highest events approved, followed by insect tolerance traits. Approvals for food product quality increased in the second decade. Maize had the highest number of events approved (single and stacked traits), and stacked traits product gradually increased which is already 30% of the total trait approvals. These results may indicate understanding and acceptance of countries to enhance regulatory capability to be able to benefit from GM crop commercialization. Hence, the paper provided information on the trends on the growth of the GM crop industry in the last 23 y which may be vital in predicting future GM crops and traits.

  6. A human-scale perspective on global warming: Zero emission year and personal quotas

    Rojas, Maisa; Mac Lean, Claudia

    2017-01-01

    This article builds on the premise that human consumption of goods, food and transport are the ultimate drivers of climate change. However, the nature of the climate change problem (well described as a tragedy of the commons) makes it difficult for individuals to recognise their personal duty to implement behavioural changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, this article aims to analyse the climate change issue from a human-scale perspective, in which each of us has a clearly defined personal quota of CO2 emissions that limits our activity and there is a finite time during which CO2 emissions must be eliminated to achieve the “well below 2°C” warming limit set by the Paris Agreement of 2015 (COP21). Thus, this work’s primary contribution is to connect an equal per capita fairness approach to a global carbon budget, linking personal levels with planetary levels. Here, we show that a personal quota of 5.0 tons of CO2 yr-1 p-1 is a representative value for both past and future emissions; for this level of a constant per-capita emissions and without considering any mitigation, the global accumulated emissions compatible with the “well below 2°C” and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2030 and 2050, respectively. These are references years that provide an order of magnitude of the time that is left to reverse the global warming trend. More realistic scenarios that consider a smooth transition toward a zero-emission world show that the global accumulated emissions compatible with the “well below 2°C” and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2040 and 2080, respectively. Implications of this paper include a return to personal responsibility following equity principles among individuals, and a definition of boundaries to the personal emissions of CO2. PMID:28628676

  7. A human-scale perspective on global warming: Zero emission year and personal quotas.

    de la Fuente, Alberto; Rojas, Maisa; Mac Lean, Claudia

    2017-01-01

    This article builds on the premise that human consumption of goods, food and transport are the ultimate drivers of climate change. However, the nature of the climate change problem (well described as a tragedy of the commons) makes it difficult for individuals to recognise their personal duty to implement behavioural changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, this article aims to analyse the climate change issue from a human-scale perspective, in which each of us has a clearly defined personal quota of CO2 emissions that limits our activity and there is a finite time during which CO2 emissions must be eliminated to achieve the "well below 2°C" warming limit set by the Paris Agreement of 2015 (COP21). Thus, this work's primary contribution is to connect an equal per capita fairness approach to a global carbon budget, linking personal levels with planetary levels. Here, we show that a personal quota of 5.0 tons of CO2 yr-1 p-1 is a representative value for both past and future emissions; for this level of a constant per-capita emissions and without considering any mitigation, the global accumulated emissions compatible with the "well below 2°C" and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2030 and 2050, respectively. These are references years that provide an order of magnitude of the time that is left to reverse the global warming trend. More realistic scenarios that consider a smooth transition toward a zero-emission world show that the global accumulated emissions compatible with the "well below 2°C" and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2040 and 2080, respectively. Implications of this paper include a return to personal responsibility following equity principles among individuals, and a definition of boundaries to the personal emissions of CO2.

  8. Global Occurrence and Emission of Rotaviruses to Surface Waters

    Nicholas M. Kiulia

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Group A rotaviruses (RV are the major cause of acute gastroenteritis in infants and young children globally. Waterborne transmission of RV and the presence of RV in water sources are of major public health importance. In this paper, we present the Global Waterborne Pathogen model for RV (GloWPa-Rota model to estimate the global distribution of RV emissions to surface water. To our knowledge, this is the first model to do so. We review the literature to estimate three RV specific variables for the model: incidence, excretion rate and removal during wastewater treatment. We estimate total global RV emissions to be 2 × 1018 viral particles/grid/year, of which 87% is produced by the urban population. Hotspot regions with high RV emissions are urban areas in densely populated parts of the world, such as Bangladesh and Nigeria, while low emissions are found in rural areas in North Russia and the Australian desert. Even for industrialized regions with high population density and without tertiary treatment, such as the UK, substantial emissions are estimated. Modeling exercises like the one presented in this paper provide unique opportunities to further study these emissions to surface water, their sources and scenarios for improved management.

  9. Monthly, global emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel consumption

    Andres, R. J.; Marland, G.; Boden, T. A. (Environmental Sciences Div., Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)), e-mail: andresrj@ornl.gov; Gregg, J. S. (Risoe DTU National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Roskilde (Denmark)); Losey, L. (Dept. of Space Studies, Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND (United States))

    2011-07-15

    This paper examines available data, develops a strategy and presents a monthly, global time series of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions for the years 1950-2006. This monthly time series was constructed from detailed study of monthly data from the 21 countries that account for approximately 80% of global total emissions. These data were then used in a Monte Carlo approach to proxy for all remaining countries. The proportional-proxy methodology estimates by fuel group the fraction of annual emissions emitted in each country and month. Emissions from solid, liquid and gas fuels are explicitly modelled by the proportional-proxy method. The primary conclusion from this study is the global monthly time series is statistically significantly different from a uniform distribution throughout the year. Uncertainty analysis of the data presented show that the proportional-proxy method used faithfully reproduces monthly patterns in the data and the global monthly pattern of emissions is relatively insensitive to the exact proxy assignments used. The data and results presented here should lead to a better understanding of global and regional carbon cycles, especially when the mass data are combined with the stable carbon isotope data in atmospheric transport models

  10. Global isoprene and monoterpene emissions under changing climate, vegetation, CO2 and land use

    Hantson, Stijn; Knorr, Wolfgang; Schurgers, Guy

    2017-01-01

    Plants emit large quantities of isoprene and monoterpenes, the main components of global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. BVOCs have an important impact on the atmospheric composition of methane, and of short-lived radiative forcing agents (e.g. ozone, aerosols etc.). It is th......Plants emit large quantities of isoprene and monoterpenes, the main components of global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. BVOCs have an important impact on the atmospheric composition of methane, and of short-lived radiative forcing agents (e.g. ozone, aerosols etc.......). It is therefore necessary to know how isoprene and monoterpene emissions have changed over the past and how future changes in climate, land-use and other factors will impact them. Here we present emission estimates of isoprene and monoterpenes over the period 1901–2 100 based on the dynamic global vegetation...... model LPJ-GUESS, including the effects of all known important drivers. We find that both isoprene and monoterpene emissions at the beginning of the 20th century were higher than at present. While anthropogenic land-use change largely drives the global decreasing trend for isoprene over the 20th century...

  11. Technical opportunities to reduce global anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide

    Winiwarter, Wilfried; Höglund-Isaksson, Lena; Klimont, Zbigniew; Schöpp, Wolfgang; Amann, Markus

    2018-01-01

    We describe a consistent framework developed to quantify current and future anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide and the available technical abatement options by source sector for 172 regions globally. About 65% of the current emissions derive from agricultural soils, 8% from waste, and 4% from the chemical industry. Low-cost abatement options are available in industry, wastewater, and agriculture, where they are limited to large industrial farms. We estimate that by 2030, emissions can be reduced by about 6% ±2% applying abatement options at a cost lower than 10 €/t CO2-eq. The largest abatement potential at higher marginal costs is available from agricultural soils, employing precision fertilizer application technology as well as chemical treatment of fertilizers to suppress conversion processes in soil (nitrification inhibitors). At marginal costs of up to 100 €/t CO2-eq, about 18% ±6% of baseline emissions can be removed and when considering all available options, the global abatement potential increases to about 26% ±9%. Due to expected future increase in activities driving nitrous oxide emissions, the limited technical abatement potential available means that even at full implementation of reduction measures by 2030, global emissions can be at most stabilized at the pre-2010 level. In order to achieve deeper reductions in emissions, considerable technological development will be required as well as non-technical options like adjusting human diets towards moderate animal protein consumption.

  12. Observed decrease in atmospheric mercury explained by global decline in anthropogenic emissions

    Yanxu Zhang,; Daniel J. Jacob,; Hannah M. Horowitz,; Long Chen,; Helen M. Amos,; Krabbenhoft, David P.; Franz Slemr,; Vincent L. St. Louis,; Elsie M. Sunderland,

    2015-01-01

    Observations of elemental mercury (Hg0) at sites in North America and Europe show large decreases (∼1–2% y−1) from 1990 to present. Observations in background northern hemisphere air, including Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) aircraft flights, show weaker decreases (inventories indicating flat or increasing emissions over that period. However, the inventories have three major flaws: (i) they do not account for the decline in atmospheric release of Hg from commercial products; (ii) they are biased in their estimate of artisanal and small-scale gold mining emissions; and (iii) they do not properly account for the change in Hg0/HgII speciation of emissions from coal-fired utilities after implementation of emission controls targeted at SO2 and NOx. We construct an improved global emission inventory for the period 1990 to 2010 accounting for the above factors and find a 20% decrease in total Hg emissions and a 30% decrease in anthropogenic Hg0 emissions, with much larger decreases in North America and Europe offsetting the effect of increasing emissions in Asia. Implementation of our inventory in a global 3D atmospheric Hg simulation [GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry)] coupled to land and ocean reservoirs reproduces the observed large-scale trends in atmospheric Hg0 concentrations and in HgII wet deposition. The large trends observed in North America and Europe reflect the phase-out of Hg from commercial products as well as the cobenefit from SO2 and NOx emission controls on coal-fired utilities.

  13. Multi-annual changes of NOx emissions in megacity regions: nonlinear trend analysis of satellite measurement based estimates

    J. P. Burrows

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Hazardous impact of air pollutant emissions from megacities on atmospheric composition on regional and global scales is currently an important issue in atmospheric research. However, the quantification of emissions and related effects is frequently a difficult task, especially in the case of developing countries, due to the lack of reliable data and information. This study examines possibilities to retrieve multi-annual NOx emissions changes in megacity regions from satellite measurements of nitrogen dioxide and to quantify them in terms of linear and nonlinear trends. By combining the retrievals of the GOME and SCIAMACHY satellite instrument data with simulations performed by the CHIMERE chemistry transport model, we obtain the time series of NOx emission estimates for the 12 largest urban agglomerations in Europe and the Middle East in the period from 1996 to 2008. We employ then a novel method allowing estimation of a nonlinear trend in a noisy time series of an observed variable. The method is based on the probabilistic approach and the use of artificial neural networks; it does not involve any quantitative a priori assumptions. As a result, statistically significant nonlinearities in the estimated NOx emission trends are detected in 5 megacities (Bagdad, Madrid, Milan, Moscow and Paris. Statistically significant upward linear trends are detected in Istanbul and Tehran, while downward linear trends are revealed in Berlin, London and the Ruhr agglomeration. The presence of nonlinearities in NOx emission changes in Milan, Paris and Madrid is confirmed by comparison of simulated NOx concentrations with independent air quality monitoring data. A good quantitative agreement between the linear trends in the simulated and measured near surface NOx concentrations is found in London.

  14. Comparison of global 3-D aviation emissions datasets

    S. C. Olsen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Aviation emissions are unique from other transportation emissions, e.g., from road transportation and shipping, in that they occur at higher altitudes as well as at the surface. Aviation emissions of carbon dioxide, soot, and water vapor have direct radiative impacts on the Earth's climate system while emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx, sulfur oxides, carbon monoxide (CO, and hydrocarbons (HC impact air quality and climate through their effects on ozone, methane, and clouds. The most accurate estimates of the impact of aviation on air quality and climate utilize three-dimensional chemistry-climate models and gridded four dimensional (space and time aviation emissions datasets. We compare five available aviation emissions datasets currently and historically used to evaluate the impact of aviation on climate and air quality: NASA-Boeing 1992, NASA-Boeing 1999, QUANTIFY 2000, Aero2k 2002, and AEDT 2006 and aviation fuel usage estimates from the International Energy Agency. Roughly 90% of all aviation emissions are in the Northern Hemisphere and nearly 60% of all fuelburn and NOx emissions occur at cruise altitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. While these datasets were created by independent methods and are thus not strictly suitable for analyzing trends they suggest that commercial aviation fuelburn and NOx emissions increased over the last two decades while HC emissions likely decreased and CO emissions did not change significantly. The bottom-up estimates compared here are consistently lower than International Energy Agency fuelburn statistics although the gap is significantly smaller in the more recent datasets. Overall the emissions distributions are quite similar for fuelburn and NOx with regional peaks over the populated land masses of North America, Europe, and East Asia. For CO and HC there are relatively larger differences. There are however some distinct differences in the altitude distribution

  15. Statistical Analysis of Development Trends in Global Renewable Energy

    Marina D. Simonova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on the economic and statistical analysis of industries associated with the use of renewable energy sources in several countries. The dynamic development and implementation of technologies based on renewable energy sources (hereinafter RES is the defining trend of world energy development. The uneven distribution of hydrocarbon reserves, increasing demand of developing countries and environmental risks associated with the production and consumption of fossil resources has led to an increasing interest of many states to this field. Creating low-carbon economies involves the implementation of plans to increase the proportion of clean energy through renewable energy sources, energy efficiency, reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The priority of this sector is a characteristic feature of modern development of developed (USA, EU, Japan and emerging economies (China, India, Brazil, etc., as evidenced by the inclusion of the development of this segment in the state energy strategies and the revision of existing approaches to energy security. The analysis of the use of renewable energy, its contribution to value added of countries-producers is of a particular interest. Over the last decade, the share of energy produced from renewable sources in the energy balances of the world's largest economies increased significantly. Every year the number of power generating capacity based on renewable energy is growing, especially, this trend is apparent in China, USA and European Union countries. There is a significant increase in direct investment in renewable energy. The total investment over the past ten years increased by 5.6 times. The most rapidly developing kinds are solar energy and wind power.

  16. Act locally, trade globally. Emissions trading for climate policy

    none

    2005-07-01

    Climate policy raises a number of challenges for the energy sector, the most significant being the transition from a high to a low-CO2 energy path in a few decades. Emissions trading has become the instrument of choice to help manage the cost of this transition, whether used at international or at domestic level. Act Locally, Trade Globally, offers an overview of existing trading systems, their mechanisms, and looks into the future of the instrument for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Are current markets likely to be as efficient as the theory predicts? What is, if any, the role of governments in these markets? Can domestic emissions trading systems be broadened to activities other than large stationary energy uses? Can international emissions trading accommodate potentially diverse types of emissions targets and widely different energy realities across countries? Are there hurdles to linking emissions trading systems based on various design features? Can emissions trading carry the entire burden of climate policy, or will other policy instruments remain necessary? In answering these questions, Act Locally, Trade Globally seeks to provide a complete picture of the future role of emissions trading in climate policy and the energy sector.

  17. Sectoral trends in global energy use and greenhouse gasemissions

    Price, Lynn; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; Sinton, Jonathan; Worrell, Ernst; Zhou, Nan; Sathaye, Jayant; Levine, Mark

    2006-07-24

    In 2000, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a new set of baseline greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). The SRES team defined four narrative storylines (A1, A2, B1 and B2) describing the relationships between the forces driving GHG and aerosol emissions and their evolution during the 21st century. The SRES reports emissions for each of these storylines by type of GHG and by fuel type to 2100 globally and for four world regions (OECD countries as of 1990, countries undergoing economic reform, developing countries in Asia, rest of world). Specific assumptions about the quantification of scenario drivers, such as population and economic growth, technological change, resource availability, land-use changes, and local and regional environmental policies, are also provided. End-use sector-level results for buildings, industry, or transportation or information regarding adoption of particular technologies and policies are not provided in the SRES. The goal of this report is to provide more detailed information on the SRES scenarios at the end use level including historical time series data and a decomposition of energy consumption to understand the forecast implications in terms of end use efficiency to 2030. This report focuses on the A1 (A1B) and B2 marker scenarios since they represent distinctly contrasting futures. The A1 storyline describes a future of very rapid economic growth, low population growth, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building, and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The B2 storyline describes a world with an emphasis on economic, social, and environmental sustainability, especially at the local and regional levels. It is a world with moderate population growth

  18. Quantifying the Global Marine Biogenic Nitrogen Oxides Emissions

    Su, H.; Wang, S.; Lin, J.; Hao, N.; Poeschl, U.; Cheng, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are among the most important molecules in atmospheric chemistry and nitrogen cycle. The NOx over the ocean areas are traditionally believed to originate from the continental outflows or the inter-continental shipping emissions. By comparing the satellite observations (OMI) and global chemical transport model simulation (GEOS-Chem), we suggest that the underestimated modeled atmospheric NO2 columns over biogenic active ocean areas can be possibly attributed to the biogenic source. Nitrification and denitrification in the ocean water produces nitrites which can be further reduced to NO through microbiological processes. We further report global distributions of marine biogenic NO emissions. The new added emissions improve the agreement between satellite observations and model simulations over large areas. Our model simulations manifest that the marine biogenic NO emissions increase the atmospheric oxidative capacity and aerosol formation rate, providing a closer link between atmospheric chemistry and ocean microbiology.

  19. Self-organized global control of carbon emissions

    Zhao, Zhenyuan; Fenn, Daniel J.; Hui, Pak Ming; Johnson, Neil F.

    2010-09-01

    There is much disagreement concerning how best to control global carbon emissions. We explore quantitatively how different control schemes affect the collective emission dynamics of a population of emitting entities. We uncover a complex trade-off which arises between average emissions (affecting the global climate), peak pollution levels (affecting citizens’ everyday health), industrial efficiency (affecting the nation’s economy), frequency of institutional intervention (affecting governmental costs), common information (affecting trading behavior) and market volatility (affecting financial stability). Our findings predict that a self-organized free-market approach at the level of a sector, state, country or continent can provide better control than a top-down regulated scheme in terms of market volatility and monthly pollution peaks. The control of volatility also has important implications for any future derivative carbon emissions market.

  20. Trend of CO2 emissions of the 30 largest power plants in Germany

    Hermann, Hauke

    2014-01-01

    The brochure on the trend of CO 2 emissions of the 30 largest power plants in Germany includes tables of the emissions of these power plants. The CO 2 emissions of these power plants in 2013 (25% of the total German greenhouse gas emissions) have increased by 5% compared to 2012. The total CO 2 emission sin Germany increased by 1.5%. The differences between brown coal and black coal fired power plants are discussed.

  1. Climate variability and trends in biogenic emissions imprinted on satellite observations of formaldehyde from SCIAMACHY and OMI sounders

    Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Müller, Jean-François; Bauwens, Maite; De Smedt, Isabelle; Van Roozendael, Michel

    2017-04-01

    Biogenic hydrocarbon emissions (BVOC) respond to temperature, photosynthetically active radiation, leaf area index, as well as to factors like leaf age, soil moisture, and ambient CO2 concentrations. Isoprene is the principal contributor to BVOC emissions and accounts for about half of the estimated total emissions on the global scale, whereas monoterpenes are also significant over boreal ecosystems. Due to their large emissions, their major role in the tropospheric ozone formation and contribution to secondary organic aerosols, BVOCs are highly relevant to both air quality and climate. Their oxidation in the atmosphere leads to the formation of formaldehyde (HCHO) at high yields. Satellite observations of HCHO abundances can therefore inform us on the spatial and temporal variability of the underlying sources and on their emission trends. The main objective of this study is to investigate the interannual variability and trends of observed HCHO columns during the growing season, when BVOC emissions are dominant, and interpret them in terms of BVOC emission flux variability. To this aim, we use the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model driven by the ECMWF ERA-interim meteorology to calculate bottom-up BVOC fluxes on the global scale (Müller et al. 2008, Stavrakou et al. 2014) over 2003-2015, and satellite HCHO observations from SCIAMACHY (2003-2011) and OMI (2005-2015) instruments (De Smedt et al. 2008, 2015). We focus on mid- and high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere in summertime, as well as tropical regions taking care to exclude biomass burning events which also lead to HCHO column enhancements. We find generally a very strong temporal correlation (>0.7) between the simulated BVOC emissions and the observed HCHO columns over temperate and boreal ecosystems. Positive BVOC emission trends associated to warming climate are found in almost all regions and are well corroborated by the observations. Furthermore, using OMI HCHO observations over 2005-2015 as constraints in

  2. Projections of global emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases in 2050

    Gschrey, Barbara; Schwarz, Winfried [Oeko-Recherche Buero fuer Umweltforschung und -beratung GmbH, Frankfurt/Main (Germany)

    2009-11-15

    Emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases are currently covered under the Montreal Protocol, which focuses on ozone-depleting substances such as CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) and HCFCs (hydrochlorofluorocarbons), and under the Kyoto Protocol, which controls emissions of HFCs (hydrofluorocarbons), PFCs (perfluorocarbons) and SF{sub 6} (sulfur hexafluoride). This study bridges the gap between political regimes and their reporting systems by giving an overview of banks and emissions of all fluorinated gases in 2005, and projections of banks and emissions of fluorinated gases in 2050. The Montreal Protocol and its amendments will eventually result in the full phase out of CFCs and HCFCs. Developed countries have already completed the phase out of CFCs and will reach full phase out of HCFCs by 2020. Developing countries, in contrast, will phase out CFCs by 2010 and HCFCs by 2030. Although climate-friendly technology is available for most applications, the risk occurs that substitutes for ozone-depleting substances rely on HFCs, which cause global warming. This study determines global emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF{sub 6} (Kyoto F-gases) in 2050 in a ''business-as-usual'' scenario. The global population is expected to increase to ca. 8.7 billion people, and high economic growth of 3.5% per year is assumed. Emissions in 2050 are quantified for each sector of application as well as for developed and developing countries based on growth rates of each sector. In 2050, total global emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases are projected to amount to 4 GT CO{sub 2} eq. which equals ca. 5.9% of the total greenhouse gas emissions at this time. Compared to a relatively small share of F-gas emissions ranging around 1.3% of total greenhouse gas emissions in 2004, this percentage reflects an enormous increase. Relative to projected direct CO{sub 2} emissions alone, the 2050 F-gas emissions will even account for ca. 7.9%. In case of CO{sub 2} mitigation, this share

  3. A probabilistic approach to examine the impacts of mitigation policies on future global PM emissions from on-road vehicles

    Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Bond, T. C.; Streets, D. G.

    2012-12-01

    There is deficiency in the determination of emission reduction potential in the future, especially with consideration of uncertainty. Mitigation measures for some economic sectors have been proposed, but few studies provide an evaluation of the amount of PM emission reduction that can be obtained in future years by different emission reduction strategies. We attribute the absence of helpful mitigation strategy analysis to limitations in the technical detail of future emission scenarios, which result in the inability to relate technological or regulatory intervention to emission changes. The purpose of this work is to provide a better understanding of the potential benefits of mitigation policies in addressing global and regional emissions. In this work, we introduce a probabilistic approach to explore the impacts of retrofit and scrappage on global PM emissions from on-road vehicles in the coming decades. This approach includes scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. A dynamic model of vehicle population linked to emission characteristics, SPEW-Trend, is used to estimate future emissions and make policy evaluations. Three basic questions will be answered in this work: (1) what contribution can these two programs make to improve global emissions in the future? (2) in which regions are such programs most and least effective in reducing emissions and what features of the vehicle fleet cause these results? (3) what is the level of confidence in the projected emission reductions, given uncertain parameters in describing the dynamic vehicle fleet?

  4. Global radioxenon emission inventory based on nuclear power reactor reports.

    Kalinowski, Martin B; Tuma, Matthias P

    2009-01-01

    Atmospheric radioactivity is monitored for the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, with xenon isotopes 131mXe, 133Xe, 133mXe and 135Xe serving as important indicators of nuclear explosions. The treaty-relevant interpretation of atmospheric concentrations of radioxenon is enhanced by quantifying radioxenon emissions released from civilian facilities. This paper presents the first global radioxenon emission inventory for nuclear power plants, based on North American and European emission reports for the years 1995-2005. Estimations were made for all power plant sites for which emission data were unavailable. According to this inventory, a total of 1.3PBq of radioxenon isotopes are released by nuclear power plants as continuous or pulsed emissions in a generic year.

  5. A Global Look at Future Trends in the Renewable Energy Resource

    Chen, S.; Freedman, J. M.; Kirk-Davidoff, D. B.; Brower, M.

    2017-12-01

    With the aggressive deployment of utility-scale and distributed generation of wind and solar energy systems, an accurate estimate of the uncertainty associated with future resource trends and plant performance is crucial in maintaining financial integrity in the renewable energy markets. With continuing concerns regarding climate change, the move towards energy resiliency, and the cost-competitiveness of renewables, a rapidly expanding fleet of utility-scale wind and solar power facilities and distributed generation of both resources is now being incorporated into the electric distribution grid. Although solar and wind account for about 3% of global power production, renewable energy is now and will continue to be the world's fastest-growing energy source. With deeper penetration of renewables, confidence in future power production output on a spectrum of temporal and spatial scales is crucial to grid stability for long-term planning and achieving national and international targets in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we use output from a diverse subset of Earth System Models (Climate Model Inter-comparison Project-Phase 5 members) to produce projected trends and uncertainties in regional and global seasonal and inter-annual wind and solar power production and respective capacity factors through the end of the 21st century. Our trends and uncertainty analysis focuses on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. For wind and solar energy production estimates, we extract surface layer wind (extrapolated to hub height), irradiance, cloud fraction, and temperature (air temperature affects density [hence wind power production] and the efficiency of photovoltaic [PV] systems), output from the CMIP5 ensemble mean fields for the period 2020 - 2099 and an historical baseline for POR of 1986 - 2005 (compared with long-term observations and the ERA-Interim Reanalysis). Results include representative statistics such as the

  6. Trends and associated uncertainty in the global mean temperature record

    Poppick, A. N.; Moyer, E. J.; Stein, M.

    2016-12-01

    Physical models suggest that the Earth's mean temperature warms in response to changing CO2 concentrations (and hence increased radiative forcing); given physical uncertainties in this relationship, the historical temperature record is a source of empirical information about global warming. A persistent thread in many analyses of the historical temperature record, however, is the reliance on methods that appear to deemphasize both physical and statistical assumptions. Examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for natural variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. We show here that methods that deemphasize assumptions can limit the scope of analysis and can lead to misleading inferences, particularly in the setting considered where the data record is relatively short and the scale of temporal correlation is relatively long. A proposed model that is simple but physically informed provides a more reliable estimate of trends and allows a broader array of questions to be addressed. In accounting for uncertainty, we also illustrate how parametric statistical models that are attuned to the important characteristics of natural variability can be more reliable than ostensibly more flexible approaches.

  7. CORPORATE COMMUNICATION BIASES IN THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT UNDER GLOBALIZATION TRENDS

    Ramona-Elena, Chiţu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The development of the private sector, employers’ requirements of specific communication skills, the economic field division into numberless branches of activity – finance and banks, management, human resources, accounting, international relations, tourism – the presence of a certain literature in the field by means of translations, all such aspects represent grounded reasons for the existence of a global economic vocabulary in the Romanian language. Finding its origins in the structuralism philosophic principles and associated with the structuralism linguistic trends, economic language’s globalisation becomes obvious nowadays through the occurrence of a large number of linguistic borrowings. Classified into either needless or necessary borrowed lexical units, lexical units borrowed and completely or at all assimilated in the target language, such borrowings lay the foundation of what specialists in the field call corporate language. Considering that the total or partial lack of knowledge on such language can become a real barrier in achieving communication, this study aims at analysing the level to which such words are known by the employees in the business environments involved in economic international partnerships and in multinational organisations.

  8. Current Trends in the Nuclear Power Global Market

    Mariya Mikhailovna Osetskaya

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The review of the nuclear energy technologies market, namely the main processes of the initial and final stages of the nuclear fuel cycle (NTC was shown. The authors reveal key players in the markets of natural uranium mining, conversion, enrichment, fabrication of nuclear fuel, direct disposal, and reprocessing as well as determine their market shares. The article shows the fundamental factors influencing the development trends of the global nuclear power market such as: units’ commissioning in China, India, the Republic of Korea and other countries, the restart of the Japanese nuclear power plants, growth of uranium supplies long-term contracting planned for the period up to 2025, volatility of world prices of the NFC initial and final stages, political, economic and environmental reasons for the nuclear power generation choice. The article presents the results of analyses of Russian and world prices on the NFC initial and final stages main processes’ allowing to draw a conclusion about the current competitiveness of Russian nuclear energy technologies

  9. Global trends in critical values practices and their harmonization.

    Kost, Gerald J; Hale, Kristin N

    2011-02-01

    The objectives of this article were 1) to identify current trends in critical values practices in North America, Europe, and other regions; 2) to describe progress toward harmonization of critical limits; and 3) to synthesize strategies that will encourage global consensus. Critical limits are described in national surveys. Critical value practices are guided by federal statutes, The Joint Commission regulations, and accreditation requirements in the US; by provincial healthcare agencies in Canada; by thought leaders and ISO EN 15189:2007 in Europe; and in SE Asia, mostly by ad hoc policies lacking statutory grip. Review of databases, literature, websites, federal statutes, litigation, official policies, current affairs, and accreditation agency requirements. Practical strategies will accelerate harmonization of critical values practices, as follows: a) continue national and international survey comparisons; b) clarify age, ethnic, and subject dependencies; c) standardize qualitative and quantitative decision levels for urgent clinician notification; d) monitor compliance and timeliness for safety; and e) alert high frequencies of critical values related to adverse events. New expectations and communication technologies present opportunities for enhanced performance using wireless closed-loop reporting with recipient acknowledgment to reduce phone calls and improve efficiency. Hospitals worldwide can benefit from developing consensus for critical values practices.

  10. Global initiatives to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions

    Helme, N.; Gille, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    Joint implementation (JI) is a provision, included in the Framework Convention on Climate Change, that allows for two or more nations to jointly plan and implement a greenhouse gas or offsetting project. Joint implementation is important environmentally for two principal reasons: (1) it provides an opportunity to select projects on a global basis that maximize both greenhouse gas reduction benefits and other environmental benefits such as air pollution reduction while minimizing cost, and (2) it creates incentives for developing countries as well as multinational companies to begin to evaluate potential investments through a climate-friendly lens. While the debate on how to establish the criteria and institutional capacity necessary to encourage joint implementation projects continues in the international community, the US government is creating new incentives for US companies to develop joint implementation pilot projects now. While delegates to the United Nations' International Negotiating Committee (INC) debate whether to permit all Parties to the convention to participate in JI, opportunities in Eastern and Central Europe and the former Soviet states abound. The US has taken a leadership role in joint implementation, establishing two complementary domestic programs that allow US companies to measure, track and score their net greenhouse gas reduction achievements now. With a financial investment by three US utilities, the Center for Clean Air Policy is developing a fuel-switching and energy efficiency project in the city of Decin in the Czech Republic which offers a concrete example of what a real-world JI project could look like. The Decin project provides an ideal test case for assessing the adequacy and potential impact of the draft criteria for the US Initiative on Joint Implementation, as well as for the draft criteria prepared by the INC Secretariat

  11. Negative emissions from stopping deforestation and forest degradation, globally.

    Houghton, Richard A; Nassikas, Alexander A

    2018-01-01

    Forest growth provides negative emissions of carbon that could help keep the earth's surface temperature from exceeding 2°C, but the global potential is uncertain. Here we use land-use information from the FAO and a bookkeeping model to calculate the potential negative emissions that would result from allowing secondary forests to recover. We find the current gross carbon sink in forests recovering from harvests and abandoned agriculture to be -4.4 PgC/year, globally. The sink represents the potential for negative emissions if positive emissions from deforestation and wood harvest were eliminated. However, the sink is largely offset by emissions from wood products built up over the last century. Accounting for these committed emissions, we estimate that stopping deforestation and allowing secondary forests to grow would yield cumulative negative emissions between 2016 and 2100 of about 120 PgC, globally. Extending the lifetimes of wood products could potentially remove another 10 PgC from the atmosphere, for a total of approximately 130 PgC, or about 13 years of fossil fuel use at today's rate. As an upper limit, the estimate is conservative. It is based largely on past and current practices. But if greater negative emissions are to be realized, they will require an expansion of forest area, greater efficiencies in converting harvested wood to long-lasting products and sources of energy, and novel approaches for sequestering carbon in soils. That is, they will require current management practices to change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Global health impacts and costs due to mercury emissions.

    Spadaro, Joseph V; Rabl, Ari

    2008-06-01

    Since much of the emission is in the form of metallic Hg whose atmospheric residence time is long enough to cause nearly uniform mixing in the hemisphere, much of the impact is global. This article presents a first estimate of global average neurotoxic impacts and costs by defining a comprehensive transfer factor for ingestion of methyl-Hg as ratio of global average dose rate and global emission rate. For the dose-response function (DRF) we use recent estimates of IQ decrement as function of Hg concentration in blood, as well as correlations between blood concentration and Hg ingestion. The cost of an IQ point is taken as $18,000 in the United States and applied in other countries in proportion to per capita GDP, adjusted for purchase power parity. The mean estimate of the global average of the marginal damage cost per emitted kg of Hg is about $1,500/kg, if one assumes a dose threshold of 6.7 mug/day of methyl-Hg per person, and $3,400/kg without threshold. The average global lifetime impact and cost per person at current emission levels are 0.02 IQ points lost and $78 with and 0.087 IQ points and $344 without threshold. These results are global averages; for any particular source and emission site the impacts can be quite different. An assessment of the overall uncertainties indicates that the damage cost could be a factor 4 smaller or larger than the median estimate (the uncertainty distribution is approximately log normal and the ratio median/mean is approximately 0.4).

  13. Population and trends in the global mean temperature

    Tol, Richard S.J.

    2017-01-01

    The Fisher ideal index, developed to measure price inflation, is applied to define a population-weighted temperature trend. This method has the advantages that the trend is representative for the population distribution throughout the sample but without conflating the trend in the population

  14. Timing of carbon emissions from global forest clearance

    J. Mason Earles; Sonia Yeh; Kenneth E. Skog

    2012-01-01

    Land-use change, primarily from conventional agricultural expansion and deforestation, contributes to approximately 17% of global greenhouse-gas emissions1. The fate of cleared wood and subsequent carbon storage as wood products, however, has not been consistently estimated, and is largely ignored or oversimplified by most models estimating...

  15. Global radiative effects of solid fuel cookstove aerosol emissions

    Huang, Yaoxian; Unger, Nadine; Storelvmo, Trude; Harper, Kandice; Zheng, Yiqi; Heyes, Chris

    2018-04-01

    We apply the NCAR CAM5-Chem global aerosol-climate model to quantify the net global radiative effects of black and organic carbon aerosols from global and Indian solid fuel cookstove emissions for the year 2010. Our assessment accounts for the direct radiative effects, changes to cloud albedo and lifetime (aerosol indirect effect, AIE), impacts on clouds via the vertical temperature profile (semi-direct effect, SDE) and changes in the surface albedo of snow and ice (surface albedo effect). In addition, we provide the first estimate of household solid fuel black carbon emission effects on ice clouds. Anthropogenic emissions are from the IIASA GAINS ECLIPSE V5a inventory. A global dataset of black carbon (BC) and organic aerosol (OA) measurements from surface sites and aerosol optical depth (AOD) from AERONET is used to evaluate the model skill. Compared with observations, the model successfully reproduces the spatial patterns of atmospheric BC and OA concentrations, and agrees with measurements to within a factor of 2. Globally, the simulated AOD agrees well with observations, with a normalized mean bias close to zero. However, the model tends to underestimate AOD over India and China by ˜ 19 ± 4 % but overestimate it over Africa by ˜ 25 ± 11 % (± represents modeled temporal standard deviations for n = 5 run years). Without BC serving as ice nuclei (IN), global and Indian solid fuel cookstove aerosol emissions have net global cooling radiative effects of -141 ± 4 mW m-2 and -12 ± 4 mW m-2, respectively (± represents modeled temporal standard deviations for n = 5 run years). The net radiative impacts are dominated by the AIE and SDE mechanisms, which originate from enhanced cloud condensation nuclei concentrations for the formation of liquid and mixed-phase clouds, and a suppression of convective transport of water vapor from the lower troposphere to the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere that in turn leads to reduced ice cloud formation. When BC is allowed

  16. Global emissions and models of photochemically active compounds

    Penner, J.E.; Atherton, C.S.; Graedel, T.E.

    1993-01-01

    Anthropogenic emissions from industrial activity, fossil fuel combustion, and biomass burning are now known to be large enough (relative to natural sources) to perturb the chemistry of vast regions of the troposphere. A goal of the IGAC Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA) is to provide authoritative and reliable emissions inventories on a 1 degree x 1 degree grid. When combined with atmospheric photochemical models, these high quality emissions inventories may be used to predict the concentrations of major photochemical products. Comparison of model results with measurements of pertinent species allows us to understand whether there are major shortcomings in our understanding of tropospheric photochemistry, the budgets and transport of trace species, and their effects in the atmosphere. Through this activity, we are building the capability to make confident predictions of the future consequences of anthropogenic emissions. This paper compares IGAC recommended emissions inventories for reactive nitrogen and sulfur dioxide to those that have been in use previously. We also present results from the three-dimensional LLNL atmospheric chemistry model that show how emissions of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides might potentially affect tropospheric ozone and OH concentrations and how emissions of anthropogenic sulfur increase sulfate aerosol loadings

  17. Globally significant greenhouse-gas emissions from African inland waters

    Borges, Alberto V.; Bouillon, Steven

    2017-04-01

    The relevance of inland waters to global biogeochemical cycles is increasingly recognized, and of particular importance is their contribution of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. The latter remain largely unreported in African inland waters. Here we report dissolved CO2, CH4 and N2O from 12 rivers in Sub-Saharan Africa acquired during >30 field expeditions and additional seasonally resolved sampling at >30 sites between 2006 and 2014. Fluxes were calculated from reported gas transfer velocity values, and upscaled using available spatial datasets, with an estimated uncertainty of about ±19%. CO2 equivalent emissions ( 0.4±0.1 PgC yr-1) match 2/3 of the overall net carbon sink previously reported for Africa. Including emissions from wetlands of the Congo, the putative total emission ( 0.9±0.1 PgC yr-1) is about half of the global oceanic or land carbon sinks. In-situ respiration supported <14% of riverine CO2 emissions, which must therefore largely be driven by mineralization in wetlands or uplands. Riverine CO2 and CH4 emissions were directly correlated to wetland coverage and aboveground vegetation biomass, implying that future changes in wetland and upland vegetation cover will strongly impact GHG emissions from African inland waters.

  18. Influence of economic factors on future global emissions

    Duffey, R.B.; Poehnell, T.G.; Miller, A.I.; Tamm, J.A.

    2001-01-01

    The climate change debate is really about economics, and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate change potential at a reasonable and acceptable cost for everyone. In this paper, we examine the major economic factors behind defining climate change policies that relate to reducing GHG emissions, and the value to be placed on CO 2 . We examine the impacts and the 'cost of carbon' based on the studies of GHG reduction strategies in the US and the European Union (EU). We show that a series of self-defeating assumptions have been used in the latest analyses regarding relative future energy and power costs, and hence future GHG emissions. We estimate: the 'natural value' of GHG emissions based on world economic factors, the value of electricity and energy based on world data, the cost advantage of using a given new technology, and the value of avoided GHG emissions in future global and national climate change projections. The use of electricity is shown to be key in aiding economic growth for the entire world. Using the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2000 climate change projections as a base, we reflect the impacts of differing energy prices on future global climate conditions and GHG reductions. We conduct a similar analysis for Canada using the latest 'Energy in Canada 2000' projections. We show how the use of advanced technology for the traditional production of electricity, and for hydrogen-based transportation fuels, can stabilize global emissions and assist in managing adverse climate change conditions without causing economic penalties. The method we develop is sufficiently general that it can be used for valuing the economic impact of the emission reductions for any technology. We estimate the embedded value and potential economic benefit of nuclear technology and electric contribution for both the world economy to 2100, and for the latest projections for Canada to 2020. (author)

  19. Global trends in teenage suicide: 2003-2014.

    McLoughlin, A B; Gould, M S; Malone, K M

    2015-10-01

    The object of this article is to review the past decade of research on teenage suicide, with a particular emphasis on epidemiologic trends by age, gender and indigenous ethnicity. As such, a review of research literature from 2003 to 2014 was conducted via a comprehensive search of relevant psychological and medical databases. Wide gaps in our knowledge base exist concerning the true extent of teenage suicide due to lack of data, particularly in developing countries, resulting in a Western bias. The gender paradox of elevated suicidality in females with higher completed suicide rates in males is observed in teenage populations worldwide, with the notable exceptions of China and India. Native and indigenous ethnic minority teens are at significantly increased risk of suicide in comparison to general population peers. Often those with the highest need for mental health care (such as the suicidal adolescent) have least access to therapeutic support.Globally, suicide in teenagers remains a major public health concern. Further focused research concerning completed suicides of youth below the age of 18 is required across countries and cultures to understand more about risk as children progress through adolescence. Gender and ethnic variations in suicidality are embedded within cultural, historical, psychological, relational and socio-economic domains. Worldwide, the absence of child/adolescent-specific mental health policies may delay the development of care and suicide prevention. Overall, it is vital that clinicians adopt a holistic approach that incorporates an awareness of age and gender influences, and that cultural competency informs tailored and evaluated intervention programmes. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Association of Physicians. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. Inverse modelling estimates of N2O surface emissions and stratospheric losses using a global dataset

    Thompson, R. L.; Bousquet, P.; Chevallier, F.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Vermeulen, A. T.; Aalto, T.; Haszpra, L.; Meinhardt, F.; O'Doherty, S.; Moncrieff, J. B.; Popa, M.; Steinbacher, M.; Jordan, A.; Schuck, T. J.; Brenninkmeijer, C. A.; Wofsy, S. C.; Kort, E. A.

    2010-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) levels have been steadily increasing in the atmosphere over the past few decades at a rate of approximately 0.3% per year. This trend is of major concern as N2O is both a long-lived Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and an Ozone Depleting Substance (ODS), as it is a precursor of NO and NO2, which catalytically destroy ozone in the stratosphere. Recently, N2O emissions have been recognised as the most important ODS emissions and are now of greater importance than emissions of CFC's. The growth in atmospheric N2O is predominantly due to the enhancement of surface emissions by human activities. Most notably, the intensification and proliferation of agriculture since the mid-19th century, which has been accompanied by the increased input of reactive nitrogen to soils and has resulted in significant perturbations to the natural N-cycle and emissions of N2O. There exist two approaches for estimating N2O emissions, the so-called 'bottom-up' and 'top-down' approaches. Top-down approaches, based on the inversion of atmospheric measurements, require an estimate of the loss of N2O via photolysis and oxidation in the stratosphere. Uncertainties in the loss magnitude contribute uncertainties of 15 to 20% to the global annual surface emissions, complicating direct comparisons between bottom-up and top-down estimates. In this study, we present a novel inversion framework for the simultaneous optimization of N2O surface emissions and the magnitude of the loss, which avoids errors in the emissions due to incorrect assumptions about the lifetime of N2O. We use a Bayesian inversion with a variational formulation (based on 4D-Var) in order to handle very large datasets. N2O fluxes are retrieved at 4-weekly resolution over a global domain with a spatial resolution of 3.75° x 2.5° longitude by latitude. The efficacy of the simultaneous optimization of emissions and losses is tested using a global synthetic dataset, which mimics the available atmospheric data. Lastly, using real

  1. Carbon emission intensity in electricity production: A global analysis

    Ang, B.W.; Su, Bin

    2016-01-01

    We study changes in the aggregate carbon intensity (ACI) for electricity at the global and country levels. The ACI is defined as the energy-related CO_2 emissions in electricity production divided by the electricity produced. It is a performance indicator since a decrease in its value is a desirable outcome from the environmental and climate change viewpoints. From 1990 to 2013, the ACI computed at the global level decreased only marginally. However, fairly substantial decreases were observed in many countries. This apparent anomaly arises from a geographical shift in global electricity production with countries having a high ACI increasingly taking up a larger electricity production share. It is found that globally and in most major electricity producing countries, reduction in their ACI was due mainly to improvements in the thermal efficiency of electricity generation rather than to fuel switching. Estimates of the above-mentioned effects are made using LMDI decomposition analysis. Our study reveals several challenges in reducing global CO_2 emissions from the electricity production sector although technically the reduction potential for the sector is known to be great. - Highlights: •Variations of aggregate carbon intensity (ACI) for electricity of world countries are analysed. •Main drivers of changes in ACI of major electricity producing countries are studied using index decomposition analysis. •Geographical shift in electricity production had a significant impact on global ACI. •Improvements in the thermal efficiency of generation were the main driver of reduction in ACI.

  2. Development of a forecast model for global air traffic emissions

    Schaefer, Martin

    2012-07-01

    The thesis describes the methodology and results of a simulation model that quantifies fuel consumption and emissions of civil air traffic. Besides covering historical emissions, the model aims at forecasting emissions in the medium-term future. For this purpose, simulation models of aircraft and engine types are used in combination with a database of global flight movements and assumptions about traffic growth, fleet rollover and operational aspects. Results from an application of the model include emissions of scheduled air traffic for the years 2000 to 2010 as well as forecasted emissions until the year 2030. In a baseline scenario of the forecast, input assumptions (e.g. traffic growth rates) are in line with predictions by the aircraft industry. Considering the effects of advanced technologies of the short-term and medium-term future, the forecast focusses on fuel consumption and emissions of nitric oxides. Calculations for historical air traffic additionally cover emissions of carbon monoxide, unburned hydrocarbons and soot. Results are validated against reference data including studies by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and simulation results from international research projects. (orig.)

  3. Role of innovative technologies under the global zero emissions scenarios

    Tokimatsu, Koji; Konishi, Satoshi; Ishihara, Keiichi; Tezuka, Tetsuo; Yasuoka, Rieko; Nishio, Masahiro

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • We modeled a zero emissions scenario based on the A1T scenario of IPCC-SRES. • We conducted global modeling by minimizing costs of energy, biomass, and materials. • A variety of advanced technology innovations were considered and incorporated. • Results suggest that zero emissions scenario may be possible in this century. • We revealed energy supply structure under the zero emissions scenarios. - Abstract: This study investigated zero emissions scenarios with following two originalities compared to various existing studies. One is that we based on A1T society of SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenario) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) compared to existing studies on those of B1 or B2. The second one is that various innovative technologies were considered and incorporated, such as biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and advanced nuclear technologies including hydrogen or synfuel production. We conducted global modeling over the period 2010–2150 in which energy, materials, and biomass and foods supply costs were minimized by linear programming. We found following features of energy supply structure in A1T scenario. Since the electric demand in A1T scenario in 2100 is two times larger than the others, (1) renewable energy which solely produce electricity, nuclear, and fossil energy with CCS (FECCS) especially coal are main sources of electricity, (2) renewable which can supply heat, namely BECCS and geothermal, satisfies the sector, and (3) hydrogen from coal is introduced in transport sector. It can be concluded that the zero emission energy systems with global economic growth will be possible, by development and deployment of ambitious advanced energy technologies.

  4. Investigational report on the trend of measures for global warming; Chikyu ondanka taisaku doko chosa hokokusho

    NONE

    1996-03-01

    To know the trend of measures taken for global warming, conducted were overseas surveys, participation in academic society meetings, and literature surveys. The phaseout time of all ozone depleting substances responsible for the ozonospherial destruction was determined for both developed and developing countries in the 7th Meeting of countries which concluded the Montreal Protocol. As information on measures for protecting the ozonosphere, introduced was activities under United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). New fluorine containing ethers were introduced as cleaning solvent which causes no ozonospherial destruction and is low in global warming index. Toxicity data were obtained on HFC-236ea and HFC-236fa which are promising substitutes in HCFC foaming and refrigerant fields. The paper introduced an outline of the 1st Meeting of countries which concluded the Framework Convention on Climate Change held in 1995. According to the report on the National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection of the Netherlands, the amount of emission of fluorine containing greenhouse effect gas (in CO2 conversion) reached 8-14% of all the amount of greenhouse effect gas emitted in 1990 unless the control is reinforced. An outline of the TEWI-3 project was introduced which is useful for comparing effects of substitution technologies on global warming. 14 refs., 11 figs., 29 tabs.

  5. Trends in trace element emission legislation - an international overview

    Sloss, L.L.

    2003-07-01

    Emissions of trace elements have decreased for a variety of reasons in many developed countries. However, the application of more successful control strategies in other industry sectors means that coal combustion is still a relatively important source of some trace elements, especially mercury. International and national legislation is increasingly being applied to trace element emissions. International programmes for trace element reduction are generally in the form of voluntary action plans with recommendations and targets for reduction. National legislation in Europe is commonly in the form of emission limits for specific sources. New legislation in the USA may take the form of best available technology or a minimum emission reduction requirement. It is also possible that mercury could be included in multi-pollutant emissions trading schemes. 52 refs., 4 tabs.

  6. New trends in emission control in the European Union

    Merkisz, Jerzy; Radzimirski, Stanislaw

    2014-01-01

    This book discusses recent changes in the European legislation for exhaust emissions from motor vehicles. It starts with a comprehensive explanation of both the structure and range of applicability of new regulations, such as Euro 5 and Euro 6 for light-duty vehicles and Euro VI for heavy-duty vehicles. Then it introduces the most important issues in in-service conformity and conformity of production for vehicles, describing the latest procedures for performing exhaust emissions tests under both bench and operating conditions. Subsequently, it reports on portable emission measurement systems (PEMS) and their application for assessing the emissions of gaseous and particulate matter alike, under actual operating conditions and in all transport modes. Lastly, the book presents selected findings from exhaust emissions research on engines for a variety of transport vehicles, such as light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles, as well as non-road vehicles, which include farm tractors, groundwork and forest machinery, diese...

  7. Modeling temporal variations in global residential energy consumption and pollutant emissions

    Chen, Han; Huang, Ye; Shen, Huizhong; Chen, Yilin; Ru, Muye; Chen, Yuanchen; Lin, Nan; Su, Shu; Zhuo, Shaojie; Zhong, Qirui; Wang, Xilong; Liu, Junfeng; Li, Bengang; Tao, Shu

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Space-for-time substitution was tested for seasonality of residential energy. • Regression models were developed to simulate global residential energy consumption. • Factors affecting the temporal trend in residential energy use were identified. • Climate warming will induce changes in residential energy use and emissions. - Abstract: Energy data are often reported on an annual basis. To address the climate and health impacts of greenhouse gases and air pollutants, seasonally resolved emissions inventories are needed. The seasonality of energy consumption is most affected by consumption in the residential sector. In this study, a set of regression models were developed based on temperature-related variables and a series of socioeconomic parameters to quantify global electricity and fuel consumption for the residential sector. The models were evaluated against observations and applied to simulate monthly changes in residential energy consumption and the resultant emissions of air pollutants. Changes in energy consumption are strongly affected by economic prosperity and population growth. Climate change, electricity prices, and urbanization also affect energy use. Climate warming will cause a net increase in electricity consumption and a decrease in fuel consumption by the residential sector. Consequently, emissions of CO_2, SO_2, and Hg are predicted to decrease, while emissions of incomplete combustion products are expected to increase. These changes vary regionally.

  8. Contrasting regional versus global radiative forcing by megacity pollution emissions

    Dang, H.; Unger, N.

    2015-10-01

    We assess the regional and global integrated radiative forcing on 20- and 100-year time horizons caused by a one-year pulse of present day pollution emissions from 10 megacity areas: Los Angeles, Mexico City, New York City, Sao Paulo, Lagos, Cairo, New Delhi, Beijing, Shanghai and Manila. The assessment includes well-mixed greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4); and short-lived climate forcers: tropospheric ozone (O3) and fine mode aerosol particles (sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, primary and secondary organic aerosol). All megacities contribute net global warming on both time horizons. Most of the 10 megacity areas exert a net negative effect on their own regional radiation budget that is 10-100 times larger in magnitude than their global radiative effects. Of the cities examined, Beijing, New Delhi, Shanghai and New York contribute most to global warming with values ranging from +0.03 to 0.05 Wm-2yr on short timescales and +0.07-0.10 Wm-2yr on long timescales. Regional net 20-year radiative effects are largest for Mexico City (-0.84 Wm-2yr) and Beijing (-0.78 Wm-2yr). Megacity reduction of non-CH4 O3 precursors to improve air quality offers zero co-benefits to global climate. Megacity reduction of aerosols to improve air quality offers co-benefits to the regional radiative budget but minimal or no co-benefits to global climate with the exception of black carbon reductions in a few cities, especially Beijing and New Delhi. Results suggest that air pollution and global climate change mitigation can be treated as separate environmental issues in policy at the megacity level with the exception of CH4 action. Individual megacity reduction of CO2 and CH4 emissions can mitigate global warming and therefore offers climate safety improvements to the entire planet.

  9. Changes in US background ozone due to global anthropogenic emissions from 1970 to 2020

    Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Jung, Jaegun; Kumar, Naresh; Yarwood, Greg

    2016-09-01

    Estimates of North American and US Background (NAB and USB) ozone (O3) are critical in setting and implementing the US National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and therefore influence population exposure to O3 across the US. NAB is defined as the O3 concentration in the absence of anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions from North America whereas USB excludes anthropogenic emissions inside the US alone. NAB and USB vary geographically and with time of year. Analyses of O3 trends at rural locations near the west coast suggest that background O3 is rising in response to increasing non-US emissions. As the O3 NAAQS is lowered, rising background O3 would make attaining the NAAQS more difficult. Most studies of changing US background O3 have inferred trends from observations whereas air quality management decisions tend to rely on models. Thus, it is important that the models used to develop O3 management strategies are able to represent the changes in background O3 in order to increase confidence that air quality management strategies will succeed. We focus on how changing global emissions influence USB rather than the effects of inter-annual meteorological variation or long-term climate change. We use a regional model (CAMx) nested within a global model (GEOS-Chem) to refine our grid resolution over high terrain in the western US and near US borders where USB tends to be higher. We determine USB from CAMx simulations that exclude US anthropogenic emissions. Over five decades, from 1970 to 2020, estimated USB for the annual fourth highest maximum daily 8-h average O3 (H4MDA8) in the western US increased from mostly in the range of 40-55 ppb to 45-60 ppb, but remained below 45 ppb in the eastern US. USB increases in the southwestern US are consistent with rising emissions in Asia and Mexico. USB decreases in the northeast US after 1990 follow declining Canadian emissions. Our results show that the USB increases both for the top 30 MDA8 days and the H4MDA8 (the former

  10. Global volcanic emissions: budgets, plume chemistry and impacts

    Mather, T. A.

    2012-12-01

    Over the past few decades our understanding of global volcanic degassing budgets, plume chemistry and the impacts of volcanic emissions on our atmosphere and environment has been revolutionized. Global volcanic emissions budgets are needed if we are to make effective use of regional and global atmospheric models in order to understand the consequences of volcanic degassing on global environmental evolution. Traditionally volcanic SO2 budgets have been the best constrained but recent efforts have seen improvements in the quantification of the budgets of other environmentally important chemical species such as CO2, the halogens (including Br and I) and trace metals (including measurements relevant to trace metal atmospheric lifetimes and bioavailability). Recent measurements of reactive trace gas species in volcanic plumes have offered intriguing hints at the chemistry occurring in the hot environment at volcanic vents and during electrical discharges in ash-rich volcanic plumes. These reactive trace species have important consequences for gas plume chemistry and impacts, for example, in terms of the global fixed nitrogen budget, volcanically induced ozone destruction and particle fluxes to the atmosphere. Volcanically initiated atmospheric chemistry was likely to have been particularly important before biological (and latterly anthropogenic) processes started to dominate many geochemical cycles, with important consequences in terms of the evolution of the nitrogen cycle and the role of particles in modulating the Earth's climate. There are still many challenges and open questions to be addressed in this fascinating area of science.

  11. Nine years of global hydrocarbon emissions based on source inversion of OMI formaldehyde observations

    M. Bauwens

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available As formaldehyde (HCHO is a high-yield product in the oxidation of most volatile organic compounds (VOCs emitted by fires, vegetation, and anthropogenic activities, satellite observations of HCHO are well-suited to inform us on the spatial and temporal variability of the underlying VOC sources. The long record of space-based HCHO column observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI is used to infer emission flux estimates from pyrogenic and biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs on the global scale over 2005–2013. This is realized through the method of source inverse modeling, which consists in the optimization of emissions in a chemistry-transport model (CTM in order to minimize the discrepancy between the observed and modeled HCHO columns. The top–down fluxes are derived in the global CTM IMAGESv2 by an iterative minimization algorithm based on the full adjoint of IMAGESv2, starting from a priori emission estimates provided by the newly released GFED4s (Global Fire Emission Database, version 4s inventory for fires, and by the MEGAN-MOHYCAN inventory for isoprene emissions. The top–down fluxes are compared to two independent inventories for fire (GFAS and FINNv1.5 and isoprene emissions (MEGAN-MACC and GUESS-ES. The inversion indicates a moderate decrease (ca. 20 % in the average annual global fire and isoprene emissions, from 2028 Tg C in the a priori to 1653 Tg C for burned biomass, and from 343 to 272 Tg for isoprene fluxes. Those estimates are acknowledged to depend on the accuracy of formaldehyde data, as well as on the assumed fire emission factors and the oxidation mechanisms leading to HCHO production. Strongly decreased top–down fire fluxes (30–50 % are inferred in the peak fire season in Africa and during years with strong a priori fluxes associated with forest fires in Amazonia (in 2005, 2007, and 2010, bushfires in Australia (in 2006 and 2011, and peat burning in Indonesia (in 2006 and 2009, whereas

  12. A decade of global volcanic SO2 emissions measured from space

    Carn, S. A.; Fioletov, V. E.; McLinden, C. A.; Li, C.; Krotkov, N. A.

    2017-03-01

    The global flux of sulfur dioxide (SO2) emitted by passive volcanic degassing is a key parameter that constrains the fluxes of other volcanic gases (including carbon dioxide, CO2) and toxic trace metals (e.g., mercury). It is also a required input for atmospheric chemistry and climate models, since it impacts the tropospheric burden of sulfate aerosol, a major climate-forcing species. Despite its significance, an inventory of passive volcanic degassing is very difficult to produce, due largely to the patchy spatial and temporal coverage of ground-based SO2 measurements. We report here the first volcanic SO2 emissions inventory derived from global, coincident satellite measurements, made by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA’s Aura satellite in 2005-2015. The OMI measurements permit estimation of SO2 emissions from over 90 volcanoes, including new constraints on fluxes from Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, the Aleutian Islands, the Kuril Islands and Kamchatka. On average over the past decade, the volcanic SO2 sources consistently detected from space have discharged a total of ~63 kt/day SO2 during passive degassing, or ~23 ± 2 Tg/yr. We find that ~30% of the sources show significant decadal trends in SO2 emissions, with positive trends observed at multiple volcanoes in some regions including Vanuatu, southern Japan, Peru and Chile.

  13. EDGARv4 Gridded Anthropogenic Emissions of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) from Power Generation, Residential and Transport Sectors: Regional Trends Analysis in East Asia.

    Muntean, M.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Guizzardi, D.; Crippa, M.; Schaaf, E.; Olivier, J. G.; Dentener, F. J.

    2016-12-01

    Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are toxic substances and so harmful for human health. Mitigation of these emissions are internationally addressed by the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution and by the Stockholm Convention. A global insight on POPs emissions evolution is essential since they can be transported long distances, they bio-accumulate and damage the environment. The Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4) is currently updated with POPs. We have estimated the global emissions of Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), Polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) (benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), benzo[b]fluoranthene (BbF), benzo[k]fluoranthene (BkF), Indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene (IcdP)) and Hexachlorobenzene (HCB) from fuel combustion in the power generation, residential and transport sectors. This emissions inventory has been developed by using as input to the EDGAR technology-based emissions calculation algorithm the fossil fuel consumption data from International Energy Agency (2014) and the emission factors from EMEP/EEA (2013). We provide a complete emission time series for the period 1970-2010 and discuss the trends. A comprehensive analysis of the contribution of East Asia region to the total global will be provided for each substance of the POPs group. An example is presented in Figure 1 for BaP emissions from residential sector; with emissions mainly from China, the East Asia region has a great share (32%) in the total global. We distributed the POPs emissions on gridmaps of 0.1°x0.1° resolution. Areas with high emissions in East Asia will be presented and discussed; Figure 2 shows the hot-spots in East Asia for BaP emissions from the residential sector. These emission gridmaps, used as input for the chemical transport models, contribute to the improvement of impact evaluation, which is a key element in measuring the effectiveness of mitigation

  14. Trends in European background air reflect reductions in primary emissions of PCBs and PBDEs.

    Schuster, Jasmin K; Gioia, Rosalinda; Breivik, Knut; Steinnes, Eiliv; Scheringer, Martin; Jones, Kevin C

    2010-09-01

    Data are presented for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyls ethers (PBDEs) in passive air samplers (PAS) collected along a rural/remote latitudinal transect from southern UK to northern Norway during 2004-2008. This study is part of an ongoing campaign, using semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) as PAS over two year intervals since 1994. Absolute sequestered amounts of selected PCB congeners have decreased in a first order fashion between 1994-2008, with the average time of 8.4+/-3.2 years for atmospheric concentrations to decline by 50%. PCBs have continued to fractionate with latitude during this period. PBDE concentrations declined by 50% between 2000 and 2008 every 2.2+/-0.4 years. Results are discussed in terms of sources, long-range atmospheric transport, global fractionation, and clearance processes. It is concluded that the spatial and temporal trends in background European air mainly reflect the strength of primary diffusive emissions of these compounds and subsequently their ongoing declines. The direct evidence for this is similar rates of decline at all the sites; similar rates of decline for all congeners; no systematic change in the fractionation pattern since 1994. The latest results indicate a reduction in the rate of decline for PCBs (and hence in primary emissions).

  15. Update and improvement of the global krypton-85 emission inventory

    Ahlswede, Jochen; Hebel, Simon; Ross, J. Ole; Schoetter, Robert; Kalinowski, Martin B.

    2013-01-01

    Krypton-85 is mainly produced in nuclear reactors by fission of uranium and plutonium and released during chopping and dissolution of spent fuel rods in nuclear reprocessing facilities. As noble gas it is suited as a passive tracer for evaluation of atmospheric transport models. Furthermore, research is ongoing to assess its quality as an indicator for clandestine reprocessing activities. This paper continues previous efforts to compile a comprehensive historic emission inventory for krypton-85. Reprocessing facilities are the by far largest emitters of krypton-85. Information on sources and calculations used to derive the annual krypton-85 emission is provided for all known reprocessing facilities in the world. In addition, the emission characteristics of two plants, Tokai (Japan) and La Hague (France), are analysed in detail using emission data with high temporal resolution. Other types of krypton-85 sources are power reactors, naval reactors and isotope production facilities. These sources contribute only little or negligible amounts of krypton-85 compared to the large reprocessing facilities. Taking the decay of krypton-85 into account, the global atmospheric inventory is estimated to about 5500 PBq at the end of 2009. The correctness if the inventory has been proven by meteorological simulations and its error is assumed to be in the range of a few percent. - Highlights: ► Krypton-85 is mainly produced in nuclear reactors and released during reprocessing. ► Krypten-85 can be possibly used as an indicator for clandestine reprocessing. ► This work provides an up-to-date global krypton-85 emission inventory. ► The inventory includes emissions from all possible artificial sources.

  16. Global distribution of N2O emissions from aquatic systems : natural emissions and anthropogenic effects

    Seitzinger, S.P.; Styles, R.V.; Kroeze, C.

    2000-01-01

    Context Abstract: Atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide, a greenhouse gas, are increasing due to human activities. Our analysis suggests that a third of global anthropogenic N2O emission is from aquatic sources (rivers, estuaries, continental shelves) and the terrestrial sources comprise the

  17. Aircraft emission inventories for scheduled air traffic for the 1976-92 time period. Historical trends

    Baughcum, S L; Henderson, S C; Tritz, T G [Boeing Co., Seattle, WA (United States)

    1998-12-31

    Emission inventories of fuel burned, NO{sub x}, CO, and hydrocarbons have been calculated for scheduled air traffic in 1976, 1984, 1990 and 1992 on a 1 deg latitude x 1 deg longitude x 1 km pressure altitude grid. Using this database, the seasonal variation and historical trends in aircraft emissions have been calculated for selected geographical regions (e.g., North Atlantic, Europe, North America, North Pacific). The trend in emissions is a combination of the effects of passenger demand growth, improved aircraft efficiency, changes in combustor characteristics, and aircraft size. (author) 8 refs.

  18. Aircraft emission inventories for scheduled air traffic for the 1976-92 time period. Historical trends

    Baughcum, S.L.; Henderson, S.C.; Tritz, T.G. [Boeing Co., Seattle, WA (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Emission inventories of fuel burned, NO{sub x}, CO, and hydrocarbons have been calculated for scheduled air traffic in 1976, 1984, 1990 and 1992 on a 1 deg latitude x 1 deg longitude x 1 km pressure altitude grid. Using this database, the seasonal variation and historical trends in aircraft emissions have been calculated for selected geographical regions (e.g., North Atlantic, Europe, North America, North Pacific). The trend in emissions is a combination of the effects of passenger demand growth, improved aircraft efficiency, changes in combustor characteristics, and aircraft size. (author) 8 refs.

  19. Greenhouse gas emissions from Thailand’s transport sector: Trends and mitigation options

    Pongthanaisawan, Jakapong; Sorapipatana, Chumnong

    2013-01-01

    Rapid growth of population and economy during the past two decades has resulted in continuing growth of transport’s oil demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The objectives of this study are to examine pattern and growth in energy demand as well as related GHG emissions from the transport sector and to analyze potential pathways of energy demand and GHG emissions reduction from this sector of the measures being set by the Thai Government. A set of econometric models has been developed to estimate the historical trend of energy demand and GHG emissions in the transport sector during 1989–2007 and to forecast future trends to 2030. Two mitigation option scenarios of fuel switching and energy efficiency options have been designed to analyze pathways of energy consumption and GHG emissions reduction potential in Thailand’s transport sector compared with the baseline business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which assumed to do nothing influences the long-term trends of transport energy demand. It has been found that these two mitigation options can reduce the GHG emissions differently. The fuel-switching option could significantly reduce the amount of GHG emissions in a relatively short time frame, albeit it will be limited by its supply resources, whereas the energy efficiency option is more effective for GHG emissions mitigation in the long term. Therefore, both measures should be implemented simultaneously for both short and long term mitigation effects in order to more effectively achieve GHG emissions reduction target.

  20. Hot stuff. Global warming as a giant trend

    Brunstad, Bjoern

    2007-01-01

    The article presents various aspects of global warming with focus on meteorological data, global discharges, estimated surface temperature increments, ocean level elevations and net warming effects of various human activities. The consequences for the economic and social developments are discussed. Some action possibilities are mentioned. (tk)

  1. COMPILATION OF REGIONAL TO GLOBAL INVENTORIES OF ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS

    BENKOVITZ, C.M.

    2002-01-01

    The mathematical modeling of the transport and transformation of trace species in the atmosphere is one of the scientific tools currently used to assess atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climatic conditions. From the scientific but also from the management perspectives accurate inventories of emissions of the trace species at the appropriate spatial, temporal, and species resolution are required. There are two general methodologies used to estimate regional to global emissions: bottom-up and top-down (also known as inverse modeling). Bottom-up methodologies to estimate industrial emissions are based on activity data, emission factors (amount of emissions per unit activity), and for some inventories additional parameters (such as sulfur content of fuels). Generally these emissions estimates must be given finer sectoral, spatial (usually gridded), temporal, and for some inventories species resolution. Temporal and spatial resolution are obtained via the use of surrogate information, such as population, land use, traffic counts, etc. which already exists in or can directly be converted to gridded form. Speciation factors have been and are being developed to speciate inventories of NO(sub x), particulate matter, and hydrocarbons. Top-down (inverse modeling) methodologies directly invert air quality measurements in terms of poorly known but critical parameters to constrain the emissions needed to explain these measurements; values of these parameters are usually computed using atmospheric transport models. Currently there are several strong limitations of inverse modeling, but the continued evolution of top-down estimates will be facilitated by the development of denser monitoring networks and by the massive amounts of data from satellite observations

  2. The global economic cycle and satellite-derived NO2 trends over shipping lanes

    Ruyter de Wildt, de M.; Eskes, H.J.; Boersma, K.F.

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, space-borne spectrometers have been used to detect shipping emissions of nitrogen oxides. Driven by economic growth, these emissions have been increasing for several decades, yet in few studies it has been attempted to detect trends in ship emitted NO2 from space. Here a method is

  3. Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data

    Scanlon, Bridget R.; Zhang, Zizhan; Save, Himanshu; Sun, Alexander Y.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Wiese, David N.; Reedy, Robert C.; Longuevergne, Laurent; Döll, Petra; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2018-01-01

    Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002–2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤−0.5 km3/y) and increasing (≥0.5 km3/y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km3/y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (−71 to 11 km3/y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71–82 km3/y) but negative for models (−450 to −12 km3/y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated. PMID:29358394

  4. Methods to explain emission trends. From reference to realization

    Gijsen, A.; Oude Lohuis, J.

    2003-01-01

    Several methods are available to assess and determine the effects of policy measures. In this article methods to determine the effects of social and political developments on the emission of CO2 from the production of electricity in the Netherlands are discussed [nl

  5. Observational Trends of Cometary X-ray Emission

    Lisse, C. M.

    2001-05-01

    The unexpected discovery of x-ray emission from Comet Hyakutake in March 1996 (Lisse et al. 1996) has produced a number of questions about the physical mechanism producing the radiation. The original detection and subsequent observations (Dennerl et al. 1997, Mumma et al. 1997, Krasnopolsky et al. 1998, Owens et al. 1998, Lisse et al. 1999, Lisse et a. 2001, Dennerl et al. 2001) have shown that the very soft (best fit thermal bremsstrahlung model kT = 0.23 keV) emission is due to an interaction between the solar wind and the comet's atmosphere. Using the results from the more than 15 comets detected to date in x-rays, we report on the latest results on cometary x-ray emission. Our emphasis will be on understanding the physical mechanism producing the emission, and using this to determine the nature of the cometary coma and solar wind flux. As-observed morphologies, spectra, and light curves will be discussed. We also report on the status of current cometary observations using the new powerful x-ray observatories Chandra and XMM. This work has been graciously supported by grants from the NASA Planetary Astronomy and Astrophysical Data Programs.

  6. A New Global Open Source Marine Hydrocarbon Emission Site Database

    Onyia, E., Jr.; Wood, W. T.; Barnard, A.; Dada, T.; Qazzaz, M.; Lee, T. R.; Herrera, E.; Sager, W.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrocarbon emission sites (e.g. seeps) discharge large volumes of fluids and gases into the oceans that are not only important for biogeochemical budgets, but also support abundant chemosynthetic communities. Documenting the locations of modern emissions is a first step towards understanding and monitoring how they affect the global state of the seafloor and oceans. Currently, no global open source (i.e. non-proprietry) detailed maps of emissions sites are available. As a solution, we have created a database that is housed within an Excel spreadsheet and use the latest versions of Earthpoint and Google Earth for position coordinate conversions and data mapping, respectively. To date, approximately 1,000 data points have been collected from referenceable sources across the globe, and we are continualy expanding the dataset. Due to the variety of spatial extents encountered, to identify each site we used two different methods: 1) point (x, y, z) locations for individual sites and; 2) delineation of areas where sites are clustered. Certain well-known areas, such as the Gulf of Mexico and the Mediterranean Sea, have a greater abundance of information; whereas significantly less information is available in other regions due to the absence of emission sites, lack of data, or because the existing data is proprietary. Although the geographical extent of the data is currently restricted to regions where the most data is publicly available, as the database matures, we expect to have more complete coverage of the world's oceans. This database is an information resource that consolidates and organizes the existing literature on hydrocarbons released into the marine environment, thereby providing a comprehensive reference for future work. We expect that the availability of seafloor hydrocarbon emission maps will benefit scientific understanding of hydrocarbon rich areas as well as potentially aiding hydrocarbon exploration and environmental impact assessements.

  7. Trends in PM2.5 emissions, concentrations and apportionments in Detroit and Chicago

    Milando, Chad; Huang, Lei; Batterman, Stuart

    2016-03-01

    PM2.5 concentrations throughout much of the U.S. have decreased over the last 15 years, but emissions and concentration trends can vary by location and source type. Such trends should be understood to inform air quality management and policies. This work examines trends in emissions, concentrations and source apportionments in two large Midwest U.S. cities, Detroit, Michigan, and Chicago, Illinois. Annual and seasonal trends were investigated using National Emission Inventory (NEI) data for 2002 to 2011, speciated ambient PM2.5 data from 2001 to 2014, apportionments from positive matrix factorization (PMF) receptor modeling, and quantile regression. Over the study period, county-wide data suggest emissions from point sources decreased (Detroit) or held constant (Chicago), while emissions from on-road mobile sources were constant (Detroit) or increased (Chicago), however changes in methodology limit the interpretation of inventory trends. Ambient concentration data also suggest source and apportionment trends, e.g., annual median concentrations of PM2.5 in the two cities declined by 3.2-3.6%/yr (faster than national trends), and sulfate concentrations (due to coal-fired facilities and other point source emissions) declined even faster; in contrast, organic and elemental carbon (tracers of gasoline and diesel vehicle exhaust) declined more slowly or held constant. The PMF models identified nine sources in Detroit and eight in Chicago, the most important being secondary sulfate, secondary nitrate and vehicle emissions. A minor crustal dust source, metals sources, and a biomass source also were present in both cities. These apportionments showed that the median relative contributions from secondary sulfate sources decreased by 4.2-5.5% per year in Detroit and Chicago, while contributions from metals sources, biomass sources, and vehicles increased from 1.3 to 9.2% per year. This first application of quantile regression to trend analyses of speciated PM2.5 data reveals

  8. Observed decrease in atmospheric mercury explained by global decline in anthropogenic emissions

    Yanxu Zhang,; Daniel J. Jacob,; Hannah M. Horowitz,; Long Chen,; Helen M. Amos,; Krabbenhoft, David P.; Franz Slemr,; Vincent L. St. Louis,; Elsie M. Sunderland,

    2015-01-01

    Observations of elemental mercury (Hg0) at sites in North America and Europe show large decreases (∼1–2% y−1) from 1990 to present. Observations in background northern hemisphere air, including Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) aircraft flights, show weaker decreases (Asia. Implementation of our inventory in a global 3D atmospheric Hg simulation [GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry)] coupled to land and ocean reservoirs reproduces the observed large-scale trends in atmospheric Hg0 concentrations and in HgII wet deposition. The large trends observed in North America and Europe reflect the phase-out of Hg from commercial products as well as the cobenefit from SO2 and NOx emission controls on coal-fired utilities.

  9. Global Burned Area and Biomass Burning Emissions from Small Fires

    Randerson, J. T.; Chen, Y.; vanderWerf, G. R.; Rogers, B. M.; Morton, D. C.

    2012-01-01

    In several biomes, including croplands, wooded savannas, and tropical forests, many small fires occur each year that are well below the detection limit of the current generation of global burned area products derived from moderate resolution surface reflectance imagery. Although these fires often generate thermal anomalies that can be detected by satellites, their contributions to burned area and carbon fluxes have not been systematically quantified across different regions and continents. Here we developed a preliminary method for combining 1-km thermal anomalies (active fires) and 500 m burned area observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to estimate the influence of these fires. In our approach, we calculated the number of active fires inside and outside of 500 m burn scars derived from reflectance data. We estimated small fire burned area by computing the difference normalized burn ratio (dNBR) for these two sets of active fires and then combining these observations with other information. In a final step, we used the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) biogeochemical model to estimate the impact of these fires on biomass burning emissions. We found that the spatial distribution of active fires and 500 m burned areas were in close agreement in ecosystems that experience large fires, including savannas across southern Africa and Australia and boreal forests in North America and Eurasia. In other areas, however, we observed many active fires outside of burned area perimeters. Fire radiative power was lower for this class of active fires. Small fires substantially increased burned area in several continental-scale regions, including Equatorial Asia (157%), Central America (143%), and Southeast Asia (90%) during 2001-2010. Globally, accounting for small fires increased total burned area by approximately by 35%, from 345 Mha/yr to 464 Mha/yr. A formal quantification of uncertainties was not possible, but sensitivity

  10. The energy-climate challenge: Recent trends in CO2 emissions from fuel combustion

    Quadrelli, Roberta; Peterson, Sierra

    2007-01-01

    Fossil fuel combustion is the single largest human influence on climate, accounting for 80% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. This paper presents trends in world carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from fossil fuel combustion worldwide, based on the estimates of the International Energy Agency (IEA) [IEA, 2006a. CO 2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 1971-2004. International Energy Agency, Paris, France]. Analyzing the drivers of CO 2 emissions, the paper considers regions, types of fuel, sectors, and socio-economic indicators. The paper then examines the growing body of climate change mitigation policies and measures, both multinational and federal. Policies discussed include the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme, and the potential measures to be implemented in 2012 and beyond. CO 2 emissions of recent years have grown at the highest rates ever recorded, an observed trend incompatible with stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and avoiding long-term climate change. Within this aggregate upward trend, a comparison of emissions sources proves dynamic: while industrialized countries have so far dominated historical emissions, rapid growth in energy demand of developing economies, led by China, may soon spur their absolute emissions beyond those of industrialized countries. To provide context for the drivers of CO 2 emissions, the paper examines fuel sources, from coal to biofuels, and fuel use in the production of heat and electricity, in transport, in industrial production and in households. The sectoral analysis illustrates the primacy, in terms of emissions growth and absolute emissions, of two sectors: electricity and heat generation, and transport. A discussion of several socio-economic emissions drivers complements the paper's analysis of mitigation mechanisms. As illustrated, emissions per capita and emissions per unit of economic production, as measured in gross domestic product (GDP), vary widely between

  11. The contribution of China's emissions to global climate forcing.

    Li, Bengang; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Hauglustaine, Didier; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Chen, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Laurent Zhaoxin; Li, Yue; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Junfeng; Peng, Shushi; Shen, Zehao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Rong; Wang, Tao; Yin, Guodong; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhou, Feng

    2016-03-17

    Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on "common but differentiated responsibilities" reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry-climate model and a chemistry and transport model to quantify China's present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ± 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China's relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ± 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ± 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China's strongest contributions are 0.16 ± 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, -0.11 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ± 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China's eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon.

  12. Global fire emissions estimates during 1997–2016

    G. R. van der Werf

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate, land use, and other anthropogenic and natural drivers have the potential to influence fire dynamics in many regions. To develop a mechanistic understanding of the changing role of these drivers and their impact on atmospheric composition, long-term fire records are needed that fuse information from different satellite and in situ data streams. Here we describe the fourth version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED and quantify global fire emissions patterns during 1997–2016. The modeling system, based on the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA biogeochemical model, has several modifications from the previous version and uses higher quality input datasets. Significant upgrades include (1 new burned area estimates with contributions from small fires, (2 a revised fuel consumption parameterization optimized using field observations, (3 modifications that improve the representation of fuel consumption in frequently burning landscapes, and (4 fire severity estimates that better represent continental differences in burning processes across boreal regions of North America and Eurasia. The new version has a higher spatial resolution (0.25° and uses a different set of emission factors that separately resolves trace gas and aerosol emissions from temperate and boreal forest ecosystems. Global mean carbon emissions using the burned area dataset with small fires (GFED4s were 2.2  ×  1015 grams of carbon per year (Pg C yr−1 during 1997–2016, with a maximum in 1997 (3.0 Pg C yr−1 and minimum in 2013 (1.8 Pg C yr−1. These estimates were 11 % higher than our previous estimates (GFED3 during 1997–2011, when the two datasets overlapped. This net increase was the result of a substantial increase in burned area (37 %, mostly due to the inclusion of small fires, and a modest decrease in mean fuel consumption (−19 % to better match estimates from field studies, primarily in savannas and

  13. EMISSION AND TRENDS IN RECLAIMING WASTE HEAT IN INDUSTRIAL INSTALATIONS

    Lech Hys

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the analysis of waste heat emission in a typical industrial installation. On the basis of the process monitoring system, periodic analyses of fumes composition, installation process manual and the conducted measurements of the heat fluxes from individual sources emitting heat on the way of natural convection from the devices’ coats and forced convection in the fumes flux were calculated. According to the authors the heat of temperature 140–155 °C and surface power density 860–970 W/m2 emitted by devices’ covers can be reclaimed in ORC techniques, Peltier’s modules and the systems realising Stirling cycle. Part of the waste heat included in fumes, which makes c.a. 76% of the total emission from the installation, should be returned to the process of fuel oxidation, what will reduce the emission by c.a. 18% and the volume of consumed fuel by c.a. 25 m3 CH4/h, according to the presented calculations.

  14. Simplifiying global biogeochemistry models to evaluate methane emissions

    Gerber, S.; Alonso-Contes, C.

    2017-12-01

    Process-based models are important tools to quantify wetland methane emissions, particularly also under climate change scenarios, evaluating these models is often cumbersome as they are embedded in larger land-surface models where fluctuating water table and the carbon cycle (including new readily decomposable plant material) are predicted variables. Here, we build on these large scale models but instead of modeling water table and plant productivity we provide values as boundary conditions. In contrast, aerobic and anaerobic decomposition, as well as soil column transport of oxygen and methane are predicted by the model. Because of these simplifications, the model has the potential to be more readily adaptable to the analysis of field-scale data. Here we determine the sensitivity of the model to specific setups, parameter choices, and to boundary conditions in order to determine set-up needs and inform what critical auxiliary variables need to be measured in order to better predict field-scale methane emissions from wetland soils. To that end we performed a global sensitivity analysis that also considers non-linear interactions between processes. The global sensitivity analysis revealed, not surprisingly, that water table dynamics (both mean level and amplitude of fluctuations), and the rate of the carbon cycle (i.e. net primary productivity) are critical determinants of methane emissions. The depth-scale where most of the potential decomposition occurs also affects methane emissions. Different transport mechanisms are compensating each other to some degree: If plant conduits are constrained, methane emissions by diffusive flux and ebullition compensate to some degree, however annual emissions are higher when plants help to bypass methanotrophs in temporally unsaturated upper layers. Finally, while oxygen consumption by plant roots help creating anoxic conditions it has little effect on overall methane emission. Our initial sensitivity analysis helps guiding

  15. Update and improvement of the global krypton-85 emission inventory.

    Ahlswede, Jochen; Hebel, Simon; Ross, J Ole; Schoetter, Robert; Kalinowski, Martin B

    2013-01-01

    Krypton-85 is mainly produced in nuclear reactors by fission of uranium and plutonium and released during chopping and dissolution of spent fuel rods in nuclear reprocessing facilities. As noble gas it is suited as a passive tracer for evaluation of atmospheric transport models. Furthermore, research is ongoing to assess its quality as an indicator for clandestine reprocessing activities. This paper continues previous efforts to compile a comprehensive historic emission inventory for krypton-85. Reprocessing facilities are the by far largest emitters of krypton-85. Information on sources and calculations used to derive the annual krypton-85 emission is provided for all known reprocessing facilities in the world. In addition, the emission characteristics of two plants, Tokai (Japan) and La Hague (France), are analysed in detail using emission data with high temporal resolution. Other types of krypton-85 sources are power reactors, naval reactors and isotope production facilities. These sources contribute only little or negligible amounts of krypton-85 compared to the large reprocessing facilities. Taking the decay of krypton-85 into account, the global atmospheric inventory is estimated to about 5500 PBq at the end of 2009. The correctness if the inventory has been proven by meteorological simulations and its error is assumed to be in the range of a few percent. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Dancing with Global Trends: Higher Education Policy and University Governance in Hong Kong, 1997-2012

    Lo, William Yat Wai; Tang, Hei-Hang Hayes

    2017-01-01

    This article examines the significance of global trends in higher education (HE) development in Hong Kong between 1997 and 2012. Two trends, massification and internationalisation, are considered key driving forces that shaped Hong Kong's HE policy during the period. The former refers to government measures to widen participation in HE. The latter…

  17. Spatial and Temporal Trends of Global Pollination Benefit

    Lautenbach, Sven; Seppelt, Ralf; Liebscher, Juliane; Dormann, Carsten F.

    2012-01-01

    Pollination is a well-studied and at the same time a threatened ecosystem service. A significant part of global crop production depends on or profits from pollination by animals. Using detailed information on global crop yields of 60 pollination dependent or profiting crops, we provide a map of global pollination benefits on a 5′ by 5′ latitude-longitude grid. The current spatial pattern of pollination benefits is only partly correlated with climate variables and the distribution of cropland. The resulting map of pollination benefits identifies hot spots of pollination benefits at sufficient detail to guide political decisions on where to protect pollination services by investing in structural diversity of land use. Additionally, we investigated the vulnerability of the national economies with respect to potential decline of pollination services as the portion of the (agricultural) economy depending on pollination benefits. While the general dependency of the agricultural economy on pollination seems to be stable from 1993 until 2009, we see increases in producer prices for pollination dependent crops, which we interpret as an early warning signal for a conflict between pollination service and other land uses at the global scale. Our spatially explicit analysis of global pollination benefit points to hot spots for the generation of pollination benefits and can serve as a base for further planning of land use, protection sites and agricultural policies for maintaining pollination services. PMID:22563427

  18. Trends driving the hotel industry global evolution. Case of Romania

    Codruţa-Adina BĂLTESCU

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The tourism field is well known for the dynamic of changes over recent years. We witness the continous growth of the number of tourists, the increase of consumers demands, the development of new markets and the changes determined by information technologies implementation and adaptations and innovations supported at the level of tourism business. Being a defining component in the tourism industry, the hotel field is individualized through specific evolutions and significant adjustments in relation to the general rate of changes and development trends recorded. In this framework, through this article, the author aims to assess which are the most relevant changes recorded in the Romanian hotel industry and the degree in which this specific activity field follow the trend of changes recorded at international level.

  19. Seabirds, gyres and global trends in plastic pollution

    Franeker, Jan A. van; Law, Kara Lavender

    2015-01-01

    Fulmars are effective biological indicators of the abundance of floating plastic marine debris. Long-term data reveal high plastic abundance in the southern North Sea, gradually decreasing to the north at increasing distance from population centres, with lowest levels in high-arctic waters. Since the 1980s, pre-production plastic pellets in North Sea fulmars have decreased by ∼75%, while user plastics varied without a strong overall change. Similar trends were found in net-collected floating plastic debris in the North Atlantic subtropical gyre, with a ∼75% decrease in plastic pellets and no obvious trend in user plastic. The decreases in pellets suggest that changes in litter input are rapidly visible in the environment not only close to presumed sources, but also far from land. Floating plastic debris is rapidly “lost” from the ocean surface to other as-yet undetermined sinks in the marine environment. - Highlights: • Seabirds are effective biological monitors of floating plastic marine debris. • Plastics in fulmar stomachs and in the North Atlantic gyre show similar trends. • Pre-production plastic pellets show strong decreases in fulmars and in the gyre. • These data show that floating plastics rapidly disappear from the ocean surface. - Long term studies give evidence that reduced input of plastic debris into the ocean becomes rapidly visible. Floating plastics disappear to as-yet undetermined sinks

  20. Securitization of Migration: an Australian case study of global trends

    Michael Humphrey

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Post September 11 migration has increasingly been framed as a security problem. In the 2010 Australian election campaign migration was connected to security (defense of our borders, terrorism and social cohesion and to related issues of insecurity about the future (population size,sustainability and economic growth. Thisframing of migration as a national security issue overlooks the reality that Australian immigration is part of the global flow of population. Migration is an international issue experienced by states as a national question of border control and sovereignty seeking to manage the consequences of global inequality and mobility. This paper analyses the 'security turn' in migration debates in Australia and the North and the way the securitization of migration signifies the transformation of security from the problem of producing national order to the problem of managing global disorder resulting in the merging of national and international security strategies.

  1. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L. E.

    2015-01-01

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary. PMID:26259555

  2. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E

    2015-08-11

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.

  3. Global trends of greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone

    Akimoto, H.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the earth is a closed system in which atmosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere are inter-related by exchanging energy and chemical species. Mankind in itself is a member of biosphere, and is to be harmonized with the earth system. Accompanying the increase of population and energy consumption after the industrial revolution, however, the impact of human activities to the system exceeded the extent of the expected harmonization, which has resulted the global environmental pollution. The structure of the global atmospheric environment system perturbed by the impact of human activities would be summarized

  4. Comparison of Decadal Water Storage Trends from Global Hydrological Models and GRACE Satellite Data

    Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z. Z.; Save, H.; Sun, A. Y.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Van Beek, L. P.; Wiese, D. N.; Wada, Y.; Long, D.; Reedy, R. C.; Doll, P. M.; Longuevergne, L.

    2017-12-01

    Global hydrology is increasingly being evaluated using models; however, the reliability of these global models is not well known. In this study we compared decadal trends (2002-2014) in land water storage from 7 global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, and GLDAS: NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to storage trends from new GRACE satellite mascon solutions (CSR-M and JPL-M). The analysis was conducted over 186 river basins, representing about 60% of the global land area. Modeled total water storage trends agree with those from GRACE-derived trends that are within ±0.5 km3/yr but greatly underestimate large declining and rising trends outside this range. Large declining trends are found mostly in intensively irrigated basins and in some basins in northern latitudes. Rising trends are found in basins with little or no irrigation and are generally related to increasing trends in precipitation. The largest decline is found in the Ganges (-12 km3/yr) and the largest rise in the Amazon (43 km3/yr). Differences between models and GRACE are greatest in large basins (>0.5x106 km2) mostly in humid regions. There is very little agreement in storage trends between models and GRACE and among the models with values of r2 mostly store water over decadal timescales that is underrepresented by the models. The storage capacity in the modeled soil and groundwater compartments may be insufficient to accommodate the range in water storage variations shown by GRACE data. The inability of the models to capture the large storage trends indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced changes in water storage may be mostly underestimated. Future GRACE and model studies should try to reduce the various sources of uncertainty in water storage trends and should consider expanding the modeled storage capacity of the soil profiles and their interaction with groundwater.

  5. Trends in global development paradigms and the ramifications in ...

    The recent Sustainable Development Goals draw from the antecedents of colonialism, economic growth and development, people-centred development, sustainable development, and globalization. The implications for policy are key issues in regard to the analytical meaning of the co-existing paradigms and the destination ...

  6. Global trends in emerging viral diseases of wildlife origin

    Sleeman, Jonathan M.; Ip, Hon S.

    2015-01-01

    Fifty years ago, infectious diseases were rarely considered threats to wildlife populations, and the study of wildlife diseases was largely a neglected endeavor. Furthermore, public health leaders at that time had declared that “it is time to close the book on infectious diseases and the war against pestilence won,” a quote attributed to Dr. William H. Stewart in 1967. There is some debate whether he actually said these words; however, they reflect the widespread belief at that time (Spellberg, 2008). Leap forward to today, and the book on infectious diseases has been dusted off. There is general consensus that the global environment favors the emergence of infectious diseases, and in particular, diseases of wildlife origin (Taylor et al., 2001). Examples of drivers of these infectious diseases include climate and landscape changes, human demographic and behavior changes, global travel and trade, microbial adaptation, and lack of appropriate infrastructure for wildlife disease control and prevention (Daszak et al., 2001). The consequences of these emerging diseases are global and profound with increased burden on the public health system, negative impacts on the global economy and food security, declines and extinctions of wildlife species, and subsequent loss of ecosystem integrity. For example, 35 million people are currently living with HIV infection globally (http://www.who.int/gho/hiv/en); 400 million poultry have been culled since 2003 as a result of efforts to control highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza (http://www.fao.org/avianflu/en/index.html), and there are increasing biological and ecological consequences.

  7. Trends in the Indian Ocean Climatology due to anthropogenic induced global warming

    Meyer, AA

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available clearly show that due to global warming the South West Indian Ocean Climatology has been changing and that this changing trend will continue into the future as global warming continues. The impacts of regional oceanic climate change on the regions coastal...

  8. Labour Markets Trends, Financial Globalization and the current crisis in Developing Countries

    R.E. van der Hoeven (Rolph)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe current wave of globalization has profound labour market effects, accentuated, in many cases, by the current financial and economic crisis. This paper reviews general labour market trends and country examples, arguing that the current globalization process makes labour’s position

  9. Trends in grazing emission x-ray analysis techniques

    Grieken, R. van; Tsuji, K.; Injuk, J.

    2000-01-01

    In grazing-emission x-ray fluorescence (GEXRF) spectrometry, XRF is made surface-sensitive, not by grazing incidence of the exciting radiation as in total reflection XRF (TXRF), but by detecting only that part of fluorescence radiation that is emitted at grazing angles above a polished sample carrier or above a flat wafer. In case of GEXRF, and contrary to TXRF, wavelength-dispersive (WD) detection can be used. Applications are, in principle, similar to those of (variable angle) TXRF. At the laboratory scale, only prototype instruments are available, and the GEXRF unit can be an accessory to a commercial WD-XRF instrument. The detection limits of GEXRF are in the higher pg range, corresponding to a concentration of between 0.4-3 μg/l, if a sample volume of 100 μl is examined. Because of the WD detection, GEXRF also lends itself for the analysis of low-Z elements, from Z > 5; this is an advantage over conventional TXRF (but similar to TXRF using a thin-window energy-dispersive detector). Since the GEXRF prototype is a sequential rather than a simultaneous instrument, the analysis time is long when many elements have to be determined. Moreover, because the soft characteristic radiation is more strongly absorbed in its longer path through the matrix than in TXRF, the linear response for trace analysis using GEXRF is limited; this was proven by calculating the fluorescence intensities as a function of layer thickness and composition. The specimens are very limited in thickness. The sample preparation procedure for liquid or other samples to be analyzed with the GEXRF unit is thus very problematic. Results for water samples, bio-materials and pigment and aerosol samples have indeed shown that the quantitative nature of GEXRF for trace analysis is poor. The most promising features of GEXRF are in the field of surface and thin-layer analysis. Trace contaminations on silicon wafers can be determined and depth profiling can characterize stratified near-surface layers. But

  10. Natural gas fugitive emissions rates constrained by global atmospheric methane and ethane.

    Schwietzke, Stefan; Griffin, W Michael; Matthews, H Scott; Bruhwiler, Lori M P

    2014-07-15

    The amount of methane emissions released by the natural gas (NG) industry is a critical and uncertain value for various industry and policy decisions, such as for determining the climate implications of using NG over coal. Previous studies have estimated fugitive emissions rates (FER)--the fraction of produced NG (mainly methane and ethane) escaped to the atmosphere--between 1 and 9%. Most of these studies rely on few and outdated measurements, and some may represent only temporal/regional NG industry snapshots. This study estimates NG industry representative FER using global atmospheric methane and ethane measurements over three decades, and literature ranges of (i) tracer gas atmospheric lifetimes, (ii) non-NG source estimates, and (iii) fossil fuel fugitive gas hydrocarbon compositions. The modeling suggests an upper bound global average FER of 5% during 2006-2011, and a most likely FER of 2-4% since 2000, trending downward. These results do not account for highly uncertain natural hydrocarbon seepage, which could lower the FER. Further emissions reductions by the NG industry may be needed to ensure climate benefits over coal during the next few decades.

  11. Transport and Environment Database System (TRENDS): Maritime Air Pollutant Emission Modelling

    Georgakaki, Aliki; Coffey, R. A.; Lock, G.

    2003-01-01

    This paper reports the development of the maritime module within the framework of the TRENDS project. A detailed database has been constructed, which includes all stages of the energy consumption and air pollutant emission calculations. The technical assumptions and factors incorporated in the da...... ¿ short sea or deep-sea shipping. Key Words: Air Pollution, Maritime Transport, Air Pollutant Emissions......This paper reports the development of the maritime module within the framework of the TRENDS project. A detailed database has been constructed, which includes all stages of the energy consumption and air pollutant emission calculations. The technical assumptions and factors incorporated...... encountered since the statistical data collection was not undertaken with a view to this purpose are mentioned. Examples of the results obtained by the database are presented. These include detailed air pollutant emission results per port and vessel type, to aggregate results for different types of movements...

  12. International comparison of CO2 emission trends in the iron and steel industry

    Yeonbae, Kim; Worrell, E.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, we present an in-depth decomposition analysis of trends in CO 2 emissions in the iron and steel industry using physical indicators. Physical indicators allow a detailed analysis of intra- sectoral trends, in contrast to the mostly used monetary indicators. Detailed decomposition analysis makes it possible to link developments in energy intensity to technology change and (indirectly) to policy. We present an analysis for the iron and steel industry in seven countries, i.e. Brazil, China, India (developing countries), Mexico and South Korea (newly industrialized countries) and the United States (industrialized country). We found substantial differences in energy efficiency among these countries. In most countries the increased (or decreased) production was the main contributor to changes in CO 2 emissions, while energy-efficiency was the main factor reducing emission intensities of steel production in almost all countries. Changes in power generation contributed to a reduction of specific emissions in the case of South Korea only. (Author)

  13. Seabirds, gyres and global trends in plastic pollution.

    van Franeker, Jan A; Law, Kara Lavender

    2015-08-01

    Fulmars are effective biological indicators of the abundance of floating plastic marine debris. Long-term data reveal high plastic abundance in the southern North Sea, gradually decreasing to the north at increasing distance from population centres, with lowest levels in high-arctic waters. Since the 1980s, pre-production plastic pellets in North Sea fulmars have decreased by ∼75%, while user plastics varied without a strong overall change. Similar trends were found in net-collected floating plastic debris in the North Atlantic subtropical gyre, with a ∼75% decrease in plastic pellets and no obvious trend in user plastic. The decreases in pellets suggest that changes in litter input are rapidly visible in the environment not only close to presumed sources, but also far from land. Floating plastic debris is rapidly "lost" from the ocean surface to other as-yet undetermined sinks in the marine environment. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  14. TRENDS OF NATURAL RESOURCES MARKET IN A GLOBALIZED WORLD ECONOMY

    Cristian, SIMA

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Natural resources are not homogeneous in nature, having certain features in the productive process that require grouping them into different categories by different criteria. Consequently, natural resources cannot be addressed all at once, but only distinctly, according to relevant criteria selected based on the proposed goals. Changing approaches based resources (materials to the knowledge, from quantity to quality, from mass products to new concepts of higher added value, follows a development that is based on eco-efficiency and sustainable products and services. In this respect, integrated research will become key factors towards global processing. Also, global digitalization requires a new approach on the role of information in the development of economy and increase of competitiveness.

  15. Can trade opportunities and returns be generated in a trend persistent series? Evidence from global indices

    Mitra, S. K.; Bawa, Jaslene

    2017-03-01

    In this study, we explore the possibility of generating trade opportunities and returns when a financial stock index series is trend persistent. Through application of Hurst coefficient based on the modified range to standard deviation analysis (Weron, 2002) in a sample of 31 leading global indices during the period December 2000 to November 2015, we found periods of trend persistence. We developed and tested a set of trading strategies on these periods of trend persistent in the financial series and found that significant positive returns can be generated when a series displayed upward trend persistence.

  16. Greenhouse gas emissions from Swiss agriculture since 1990: implications for environmental policies to mitigate global warming

    Leifeld, Jens [AGROSCOPE, Swiss Federal Research Station for Agroecology and Agriculture, Air Pollution/Climate Group, Reckenholzstrasse 191, 8046 Zurich (Switzerland)]. E-mail: jens.leifeld@fal.admin.ch; Fuhrer, Juerg [AGROSCOPE, Swiss Federal Research Station for Agroecology and Agriculture, Air Pollution/Climate Group, Reckenholzstrasse 191, 8046 Zurich (Switzerland)

    2005-08-01

    Agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contribute significantly to global warming, and environmental protection strategies have thus to integrate emission reduction measures from this source. In Switzerland, legislation together with monetary incentives has forced primarily integrated, and to a lesser extend organic farming, both covering nowadays more than 95% of the agriculturally useful area. Though reducing greenhouse gas emissions was not a primary intention of this reorganisation, the measures were successful in reducing the overall emissions of nitrous oxide and methane by 10% relative to 1990. A reduction of the animal herd, namely of dairy cattle, non-dairy cattle and swine, and decreasing inputs of mineral N are the main contributors to the achieved emission reduction. Crop productivity was not negatively affected and milk productivity even increased, referring to the ecological potential of agricultural reorganisation that has been tapped. Total meat production declined proportional to the animal herd. Stabilised animal numbers and fertiliser use during the last 4 years refer to an exhaustion of future reduction potentials without further legislative action because this stabilisation is most likely due to the adaptation to the production guidelines. A comparison of emission trends and carbon sequestration potentials in the broader context of the EU15 reveals that nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O) and methane (CH{sub 4}) have been reduced more efficiently most probably due to the measures taken, but that sequestration potentials are smaller than in the EU15 mainly because of differences in the agricultural structure. The change from an intensified towards a more environmental sound integrated production has a significant reduction potential, but in any case, agriculture will remain a net GHG source in spite of emission mitigation and carbon sequestration.

  17. Global trends in antimicrobial use in food animals

    Van Boeckel, Thomas P.; Brower, Charles; Gilbert, Marius; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Levin, Simon A.; Robinson, Timothy P.; Teillant, Aude; Laxminarayan, Ramanan

    2015-01-01

    Demand for animal protein for human consumption is rising globally at an unprecedented rate. Modern animal production practices are associated with regular use of antimicrobials, potentially increasing selection pressure on bacteria to become resistant. Despite the significant potential consequences for antimicrobial resistance, there has been no quantitative measurement of global antimicrobial consumption by livestock. We address this gap by using Bayesian statistical models combining maps of livestock densities, economic projections of demand for meat products, and current estimates of antimicrobial consumption in high-income countries to map antimicrobial use in food animals for 2010 and 2030. We estimate that the global average annual consumption of antimicrobials per kilogram of animal produced was 45 mg⋅kg−1, 148 mg⋅kg−1, and 172 mg⋅kg−1 for cattle, chicken, and pigs, respectively. Starting from this baseline, we estimate that between 2010 and 2030, the global consumption of antimicrobials will increase by 67%, from 63,151 ± 1,560 tons to 105,596 ± 3,605 tons. Up to a third of the increase in consumption in livestock between 2010 and 2030 is imputable to shifting production practices in middle-income countries where extensive farming systems will be replaced by large-scale intensive farming operations that routinely use antimicrobials in subtherapeutic doses. For Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the increase in antimicrobial consumption will be 99%, up to seven times the projected population growth in this group of countries. Better understanding of the consequences of the uninhibited growth in veterinary antimicrobial consumption is needed to assess its potential effects on animal and human health. PMID:25792457

  18. Impact of Emissions and Long-Range Transport on Multi-Decadal Aerosol Trends: Implications for Air Quality and Climate

    Chin, Mian

    2012-01-01

    We present a global model analysis of the impact of long-range transport and anthropogenic emissions on the aerosol trends in the major pollution regions in the northern hemisphere and in the Arctic in the past three decades. We will use the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model to analyze the multi-spatial and temporal scale data, including observations from Terra, Aqua, and CALIPSO satellites and from the long-term surface monitoring stations. We will analyze the source attribution (SA) and source-receptor (SR) relationships in North America, Europe, East Asia, South Asia, and the Arctic at the surface and free troposphere and establish the quantitative linkages between emissions from different source regions. We will discuss the implications for regional air quality and climate change.

  19. Globalization and the trends of medical technology trade in Turkey.

    Semin, Semih; Güldal, Dilek; Demiral, Yücel

    2007-05-01

    Medical technology trade is one of the most affected health areas by global regulations in the developing countries. The aim of the study is to examine recent changes in medical technology import and export and their results in Turkey. Data show that the total medical technology imports (MTI) increased from $ 34.6 million to $ 3427.9 million between 1970 and 2003. While MTI constituted 3.6% of total imports in 1970 and 1.3% in 1980, this ratio raised up to 4.9% in 2003. The ratio of MTI in total health expenditures were also increased from 7.6% in 1970 to 31.5% in 2003. Medical technology exports (MTE) have been increased from $ 0.9 million in 1970 to $ 303.2 million in 2003. The ratio of MTE to MTI increased from 2.7% to 13.9% between 1970 and 1990 and decreased after 1990, to 8.8%. Our study implied that the medical technology trade in Turkey has been negatively affected and in some respects differs from some other important industries in the globalization era. Nevertheless, detailed comparative studies in different developing countries such as China, Brazil, Mexico and India, are needed to explore the real state of medical technology trade, use and the effects of globalization on these topics.

  20. Attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness from 1982 to 2011

    Zhu, Z.; Xu, L.; Bi, J.; Myneni, R.; Knyazikhin, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Time series of remotely sensed vegetation indices data provide evidence of changes in terrestrial vegetation activity over the past decades in the world. However, it is difficult to attribute cause-and-effect to vegetation trends because variations in vegetation productivity are driven by various factors. This study investigated changes in global vegetation productivity first, and then attributed the global natural vegetation with greening trend. Growing season integrated normalized difference vegetation index (GSI NDVI) derived from the new GIMMS NDVI3g dataset (1982-2011was analyzed. A combined time series analysis model, which was developed from simper linear trend model (SLT), autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and Vogelsang's t-PST model shows that productivity of all vegetation types except deciduous broadleaf forest predominantly showed increasing trends through the 30-year period. The evolution of changes in productivity in the last decade was also investigated. Area of greening vegetation monotonically increased through the last decade, and both the browning and no change area monotonically decreased. To attribute the predominant increase trend of productivity of global natural vegetation, trends of eight climate time series datasets (three temperature, three precipitation and two radiation datasets) were analyzed. The attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness was summarized as relaxation of climatic constraints, fertilization and other unknown reasons. Result shows that nearly all the productivity increase of global natural vegetation was driven by relaxation of climatic constraints and fertilization, which play equally important role in driving global vegetation greenness.; Area fraction and productivity change fraction of IGBP vegetation land cover classes showing statistically significant (10% level) trend in GSI NDVIt;

  1. Longwave emission trends over Africa and implications for Atlantic hurricanes

    Zhang, Lei; Rechtman, Thomas; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Li, Laifang; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Kossin, James P.

    2017-09-01

    The latitudinal gradient of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over Africa is a skillful and physically based predictor of seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity. The African OLR gradient is observed to have strengthened during the satellite era, as predicted by state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Prior to the satellite era and the U.S. and European clean air acts, the African OLR gradient weakened due to aerosol forcing of the opposite sign. GCMs predict a continuation of the increasing OLR gradient in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Assuming a steady linear relationship between African easterly waves and tropical cyclogenesis, this result suggests a future increase in Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency by 10% (20%) at the end of the 21st century under the RCP 4.5 (8.5) forcing scenario.

  2. Trends in truck freight energy use and carbon emissions in selected OECD countries from 1973 to 2005

    Kamakate, Fatumata; Schipper, Lee

    2009-01-01

    Trends in truck freight energy use and carbon emissions: In the age of global supply chains and 'just in time' logistics, fast and efficient goods movement is often seen as an economic imperative. Growth in global goods movement not only translates into growth in commercial trucking activity but also into growth in the share of trucking compared to other modes of in-country freight transportation. These trends have a significant impact on the energy intensity of freight transport. Using a bottom-up approach relying on national data, this study compares the energy intensity of truck freight in Australia, France, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States from 1973 to the present. The analysis builds on previous work by and decomposing energy use for freight. Intensity is expressed in terms of vehicle intensity (megajoules/vehicle-kilometer), modal energy intensity (megajoules/tonne-kilometer), and carbon intensity (grams/tonne-km). The cross-country comparison highlights in part the influence of geography, transportation infrastructure, and truck utilization patterns on energy and carbon intensity from this sector. While improving fuel economy of individual vehicles is very important, large reductions in trucking energy use and emissions will also come from better logistics and driving, higher load factors, and better matching of truck capacity to load.

  3. Changing Trends in oral cancer - a global scenario

    Gupta, Neha; Acharya, Arun Kumar; Patthi, Basavaraj; Goud, Venkatesh; Reddy, Somanath; Garg, Anshul; Singla, Ashish

    2016-01-01

    Oral cancer is one of the highly prevalent cancers worldwide and a leading cause of mortality in certain regions like South-Central Asia. It is a major public health problem. Late diagnosis, high mortality rates and morbidity are characteristics of the disease worldwide. For control of oral cancer an idea of the coverage of the same in the various regions is necessary. The estimated incidence, mortality and 5-year survival due to lip, oral cavity cancer in world is 3, 00, 373(2.1%), 1, 45, 328(1.8%) and 7, 02, 149(2.2%) respectively according to data of GLOBOCAN 2012. A changing trend in incidence and prevalence of oral cancer has been observed with more women and youngsters being affected by oral cancer. PMID:28804673

  4. A Global Perspective on Trends in Nature-Based Tourism

    Balmford, Andrew; Beresford, James; Green, Jonathan; Naidoo, Robin; Walpole, Matt; Manica, Andrea

    2009-01-01

    Reports of rapid growth in nature-based tourism and recreation add significant weight to the economic case for biodiversity conservation but seem to contradict widely voiced concerns that people are becoming increasingly isolated from nature. This apparent paradox has been highlighted by a recent study showing that on a per capita basis, visits to natural areas in the United States and Japan have declined over the last two decades. These results have been cited as evidence of “a fundamental and pervasive shift away from nature-based recreation”—but how widespread is this phenomenon? We address this question by looking at temporal trends in visitor numbers at 280 protected areas (PAs) from 20 countries. This more geographically representative dataset shows that while PA visitation (whether measured as total or per capita visit numbers) is indeed declining in the United States and Japan, it is generally increasing elsewhere. Total visit numbers are growing in 15 of the 20 countries for which we could get data, with the median national rate of change unrelated to the national rate of population growth but negatively associated with wealth. Reasons for this reversal of growth in the richest countries are difficult to pin down with existing data, but the pattern is mirrored by trends in international tourist arrivals as a whole and so may not necessarily be caused by disaffection with nature. Irrespective of the explanation, it is clear that despite important downturns in some countries, nature-related tourism is far from declining everywhere, and may still have considerable potential both to generate funds for conservation and to shape people's attitudes to the environment. PMID:19564896

  5. Global trends in testicular cancer incidence and mortality.

    Rosen, Alexandre; Jayram, Gautam; Drazer, Michael; Eggener, Scott E

    2011-08-01

    Epidemiologic studies on testicular cancer have focused primarily on European countries. Global incidence and mortality have been less thoroughly evaluated. Our goal was to gain a better understanding of the most recent global age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for testicular cancer and to use these values to estimate a region's health care quality. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for testicular cancer were obtained for men of all ages in 172 countries by using the GLOBOCAN 2008 database, reflecting the annual rate of cancer incidence and mortality per 100,000 men. These data were evaluated on a regional level to compare incidence and mortality rates. Global plots of these values were constructed to better visualize geographic distributions. Finally, the ratio of ASIR to ASMR was calculated as a method to assess each region's proficiency in diagnosing and effectively treating testicular cancer. ASIR and ASMR were analyzed by region, and each region's ratio of ASIR to ASMR was calculated. Testicular cancer ASIR is highest in Western Europe (7.8%), Northern Europe (6.7%), and Australia (6.5%). Asia and Africa had the lowest incidence (ASMR was highest in Central America (0.7%), western Asia (0.6%), and Central and Eastern Europe (0.6%). Mortality was lowest in North America, Northern Europe, and Australia (0.1-0.2%). The ASIR-ASMR ratio was highest in Australia (65.0%) and lowest in western Africa (1.0%). National reporting systems varied by country, and data quality may have fluctuated between regions. Testicular cancer incidence remains highest in developed nations with primarily Caucasian populations. Variable ASIR-ASMR ratios suggest markedly different geographic-specific reporting mechanisms, access to care, and treatment capabilities. Copyright © 2011 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Insourcing as a New Trend in Global Business

    Chudzicka Jadwiga

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In the face of world economic crisis, it is worth considering ‘what changes in thinking are needed to revive the global economy?’ Traditional management methods have already lost much of their potential. Keeping the compliance of job category with human nature is an important factor supported by insourcing. The purpose of this study was to answer the question whether the current economic situation in the world is more profitable to firms sending domestic jobs overseas, or perhaps - in the end - it is better to use insourcing services, providing employment to workers in their home countries

  7. New global fire emission estimates and evaluation of volatile organic compounds

    C. Wiedinmyer; L. K. Emmons; S. K. Akagi; R. J. Yokelson; J. J. Orlando; J. A. Al-Saadi; A. J. Soja

    2010-01-01

    A daily, high-resolution, global fire emissions model has been built to estimate emissions from open burning for air quality modeling applications: The Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN version 1). The model framework uses daily fire detections from the MODIS instruments and updated emission factors, specifically for speciated non-methane organic compounds (NMOC). Global...

  8. Global Search Trends of Oral Problems using Google Trends from 2004 to 2016: An Exploratory Analysis.

    Patthi, Basavaraj; Kumar, Jishnu Krishna; Singla, Ashish; Gupta, Ritu; Prasad, Monika; Ali, Irfan; Dhama, Kuldeep; Niraj, Lav Kumar

    2017-09-01

    Oral diseases are pandemic cause of morbidity with widespread geographic distribution. This technology based era has brought about easy knowledge transfer than traditional dependency on information obtained from family doctors. Hence, harvesting this system of trends can aid in oral disease quantification. To conduct an exploratory analysis of the changes in internet search volumes of oral diseases by using Google Trends © (GT © ). GT © were utilized to provide real world facts based on search terms related to categories, interest by region and interest over time. Time period chosen was from January 2004 to December 2016. Five different search terms were explored and compared based on the highest relative search volumes along with comma separated value files to obtain an insight into highest search traffic. The search volume measured over the time span noted the term "Dental caries" to be the most searched in Japan, "Gingivitis" in Jordan, "Oral Cancer" in Taiwan, "No Teeth" in Australia, "HIV symptoms" in Zimbabwe, "Broken Teeth" in United Kingdom, "Cleft palate" in Philippines, "Toothache" in Indonesia and the comparison of top five searched terms provided the "Gingivitis" with highest search volume. The results from the present study offers an insight into a competent tool that can analyse and compare oral diseases over time. The trend research platform can be used on emerging diseases and their drift in geographic population with great acumen. This tool can be utilized in forecasting, modulating marketing strategies and planning disability limitation techniques.

  9. Global obesity: trends, risk factors and policy implications.

    Malik, Vasanti S; Willett, Walter C; Hu, Frank B

    2013-01-01

    The worldwide increase in obesity and related chronic diseases has largely been driven by global trade liberalization, economic growth and rapid urbanization. These factors continue to fuel dramatic changes in living environments, diets and lifestyles in ways that promote positive energy balance. Nutritional transitions in low-income and middle-income countries are typically characterized by increases in the consumption of animal fat and protein, refined grains, and added sugar. This change is coupled with reductions in physical activity owing to more mechanized and technologically driven lifestyles. Given the high costs of obesity and comorbidities in terms of health-care expenditure and quality of life, prevention strategies are paramount, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries that must manage coexisting infectious diseases and undernutrition in addition to the obesity epidemic. As countries become increasingly urbanized, undernutrition and obesity can exist side by side within the same country, community or household, which is a particular challenge for health systems with limited resources. Owing to the scope and complexity of the obesity epidemic, prevention strategies and policies across multiple levels are needed in order to have a measurable effect. Changes should include high-level global policies from the international community and coordinated efforts by governments, organizations, communities and individuals to positively influence behavioural change.

  10. Trends in aircraft emissions. Simulation of two air traffic scenarios in Sweden

    Larson, L G; Palsson, A [The Aeronautical Research Inst. of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden). The Swedish Civil Aviation Administration

    1998-12-31

    The developing trends of emissions from aviation in Sweden have been studied by means of flight and emissions simulation. The objective was to investigate whether technical improvements will allow Swedish air traffic to increase, without exceeding national regulations for pollution in the future. It was found that, due to development of aircraft engines and, to some extent, improvement of aerodynamic designs, the fuel consumption and thus the emissions of carbon dioxide will decrease in the future. The decrease of nitrous oxides is predicted to be significant due to advances in engine technology. (author) 4 refs.

  11. Trends in aircraft emissions. Simulation of two air traffic scenarios in Sweden

    Larson, L.G.; Palsson, A. [The Aeronautical Research Inst. of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden). The Swedish Civil Aviation Administration

    1997-12-31

    The developing trends of emissions from aviation in Sweden have been studied by means of flight and emissions simulation. The objective was to investigate whether technical improvements will allow Swedish air traffic to increase, without exceeding national regulations for pollution in the future. It was found that, due to development of aircraft engines and, to some extent, improvement of aerodynamic designs, the fuel consumption and thus the emissions of carbon dioxide will decrease in the future. The decrease of nitrous oxides is predicted to be significant due to advances in engine technology. (author) 4 refs.

  12. The End of Hypergamy: Global Trends and Implications.

    Esteve, Albert; Schwartz, Christine R; Van Bavel, Jan; Permanyer, Iñaki; Klesment, Martin; Garcia, Joan

    2016-12-01

    The gender gap in education that has long favored men has reversed for young adults in almost all high and middle-income countries. In 2010, the proportion of women aged 25-29 with a college education was higher than that of men in more than 139 countries which altogether represent 86% of the world's population. According to recent population forecasts, women will have more education than men in nearly every country in the world by 2050, with the exception of only a few African and West Asian countries (KC et al. 2010). The reversal of the gender gap in education has major implications for the composition of marriage markets, assortative mating, gender equality, and marital outcomes such as divorce and childbearing (Van Bavel 2012). In this work, we focus on its implications for trends in assortative mating and, in particular, for educational hypergamy: the pattern in which husbands have more education than their wives. This represents a substantial update to previous studies (Esteve et al. 2012) in terms of the number of countries and years included in the analysis. We present findings from an almost comprehensive world-level analysis using census and survey microdata from 420 samples and 120 countries spanning from 1960 to 2011, which allow us to assert that the reversal of the gender gap in education is strongly associated with the end of hypergamy and increases in hypogamy (wives have more education that their husbands). We not only provide near universal evidence of this trend but extend our analysis to consider the implications of the end of hypergamy for family dynamics, outcomes and gender equality. We draw on European microdata to examine whether women are more likely to be the breadwinners when they marry men with lower education than themselves and discuss recent research regarding divorce risks among hypogamous couples. We close our analysis with an examination of attitudes about women earning more money than their husbands and about the implications

  13. Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe: a retrospective trend analysis for the period 1990-2008

    Borgan, A.; Gugele, B.; Haider, S. (Umweltbundesamt, Vienna (Austria)) (and others)

    2011-10-15

    This report presents a retrospective overview of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends in Europe from 1990 to 2008, with a particular focus on the underpinning drivers and the influence of EU policies. The analysis is based on the combination of decomposition analyses to identify the respective influence of each identified driver and an overview of the main EU policies and their likely effects on these drivers. The period covered by the analysis stops in 2008. As a result, the analysis avoids the effects of the recent economic crisis on GHG emissions. This reinforces the conclusion on long-term emission drivers. The report covers the EU-27 and presents results for the other EEA member countries (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland and Turkey) and Croatia (EU candidate country together with Turkey) as far as data is available. The results can be summarized as: 1) Overall GHG emission trends. EU GHG emissions were reduced between 1990 and 2008. Most of the reductions took place in the 1990s, but emissions have also been decreasing every year from 2003 until the last year considered in this report, 2008. 2) Predominant drivers. For the most part, the GHG emission trends observed in the EU between 1990 and 2008 resulted from economic factors. However, EU policies, some of which were not directly targeting GHG emissions, as well as national policies by some front runner countries, also played a role in these trends. 3) Impacts of EU policies. Between 2000 and 2008, emission trends were more directly targeted by a range of energy and climate policies, e.g. the implementation of the European Climate Change programme. However, the steady increase in energy demand during this period - particularly electricity - outweighed the considerable EU-wide savings generated by energy efficiency improvements and the development of renewable energy. 4) Co-benefits. Taking example from the positive benefits on GHG emissions that resulted from the implementation of non

  14. Trends in global warming and evolution of nucleoproteins from influenza A viruses since 1918.

    Yan, S; Wu, G

    2010-12-01

    Global warming affects not only the environment where we live, but also all living species to different degree, including influenza A virus. We recently conducted several studies on the possible impact of global warming on the protein families of influenza A virus. More studies are needed in order to have a full picture of the impact of global warming on living organisms, especially its effect on viruses. In this study, we correlate trends in global warming with evolution of the nucleoprotein from influenza A virus and then analyse the trends with respect to northern/southern hemispheres, virus subtypes and sampling species. The results suggest that global warming may have an impact on the evolution of the nucleoprotein from influenza A virus. © 2010 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  15. Global trends and challenges in deceased donor kidney allocation.

    Wu, Diana A; Watson, Christopher J; Bradley, J Andrew; Johnson, Rachel J; Forsythe, John L; Oniscu, Gabriel C

    2017-06-01

    Worldwide, the number of patients able to benefit from kidney transplantation is greatly restricted by the severe shortage of deceased donor organs. Allocation of this scarce resource is increasingly challenging and complex. Striking an acceptable balance between efficient use of (utility) and fair access to (equity) the limited supply of donated kidneys raises controversial but important debates at ethical, medical, and social levels. There is no international consensus on the recipient and donor factors that should be considered in the kidney allocation process. There is a general trend toward a reduction in the influence of human leukocyte antigen mismatch and an increase in the importance of other factors shown to affect posttransplant outcomes, such as cold ischemia, duration of dialysis, donor and recipient age, and comorbidity. Increased consideration of equity has led to improved access to transplantation for disadvantaged patient groups. There has been an overall improvement in the transparency and accountability of allocation policies. Novel and contentious approaches in kidney allocation include the use of survival prediction scores as a criterion for accessing the waiting list and at the point of organ offering with matching of predicted graft and recipient survival. This review compares the diverse international approaches to deceased donor kidney allocation and their evolution over the last decade. Copyright © 2017 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. The Global Expansion of Quinoa: Trends and Limits

    Bazile, Didier; Jacobsen, Sven-Erik; Verniau, Alexis

    2016-01-01

    Quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa Willd.) was first domesticated in Andean countries over 7000 years ago. Following the Spanish conquest, quinoa was rejected as “Indian food.” After centuries of neglect, the potential of quinoa was rediscovered during the second half of the 20th century. Since then, the number of countries importing quinoa increased, with new producers appearing on the map and quinoa now being cultivated in areas outside the Andean countries. The geographical increase in distribution of quinoa has highlighted the difficulty of access to quality seed, which is a key factor for testing the crop outside the Andes. In this context, research partnerships have helped promote the exchange of quinoa germplasm and have allowed trials to be undertaken in non-traditional areas of cultivation. The number of countries growing the crop has increased rapidly from eight in 1980, to 40 in 2010, and to 75 in 2014. A further 20 countries have sown quinoa for the first time in 2015. In this paper, we analyze this trend and discuss the limits of quinoa’s expansion. As commercial production of quinoa is expected to develop, changes in international regulatory frameworks on genetic resources are needed in order to facilitate plant breeding for the most adaptive varieties for each region. PMID:27242826

  17. Balancing needs. Global trends in uranium production and demand

    Nicolet, J.P.; Underhill, D.

    1998-01-01

    In many countries, uranium is a major energy resource, fueling nuclear power plants that collectively generate about 17% of the world's electricity. With global demand for energy especially electricity projected to grow rapidly over the coming decades, the price and availability of all energy sources, including uranium, are key components in the process of energy planning and decision-making. Particularly affecting the uranium market were changing projections about nuclear power's growth and the consequent demand for nuclear fuel; the emergence of a more integrated free market system including former centrally planned economies; and the emergence into the civilian market of uranium released from dismantled nuclear weapons. All these factors contributed to uncertainties in the commercial uranium market that raised questions about future fuel supplies for nuclear power plants. Signs today indicate that the situation is changing. The world uranium market is moving towards a more balanced relationship between supply and demand

  18. Global patterns and trends in human-wildlife conflict compensation.

    Ravenelle, Jeremy; Nyhus, Philip J

    2017-12-01

    Human-wildlife conflict is a major conservation challenge, and compensation for wildlife damage is a widely used economic tool to mitigate this conflict. The effectiveness of this management tool is widely debated. The relative importance of factors associated with compensation success is unclear, and little is known about global geographic or taxonomic differences in the application of compensation programs. We reviewed research on wildlife-damage compensation to determine geographic and taxonomic gaps, analyze patterns of positive and negative comments related to compensation, and assess the relative magnitude of global compensation payments. We analyzed 288 publications referencing wildlife compensation and identified 138 unique compensation programs. These publications reported US$222 million (adjusted for inflation) spent on compensation in 50 countries since 1980. Europeans published the most articles, and compensation funding was highest in Europe, where depredation by wolves and bears was the most frequently compensated damage. Authors of the publications we reviewed made twice as many negative comments as positive comments about compensation. Three-quarters of the negative comments related to program administration. Conversely, three-quarters of the positive comments related to program outcomes. The 3 most common suggestions to improve compensation programs included requiring claimants to employ damage-prevention practices, such as improving livestock husbandry or fencing of crops to receive compensation (n = 25, 15%); modifying ex post compensation schemes to some form of outcome-based performance payment (n = 21, 12%); and altering programs to make compensation payments more quickly (n = 14, 8%). We suggest that further understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of compensation as a conflict-mitigation tool will require more systematic evaluation of the factors driving these opinions and that differentiating process and outcomes and understanding

  19. Analysis of Global Urban Temperature Trends and Urbanization Impacts

    Lee, K. I.; Ryu, J.; Jeon, S. W.

    2018-04-01

    Due to urbanization, urban areas are shrinking green spaces and increasing concrete, asphalt pavement. So urban climates are different from non-urban areas. In addition, long-term macroscopic studies of urban climate change are becoming more important as global urbanization affects global warming. To do this, it is necessary to analyze the effect of urbanization on the temporal change in urban temperature with the same temperature data and standards for urban areas around the world. In this study, time series analysis was performed with the maximum, minimum, mean and standard values of surface temperature during the from 1980 to 2010 and analyzed the effect of urbanization through linear regression analysis with variables (population, night light, NDVI, urban area). As a result, the minimum value of the surface temperature of the urban area reflects an increase by a rate of 0.28K decade-1 over the past 31 years, the maximum value reflects an increase by a rate of 0.372K decade-1, the mean value reflects an increase by a rate of 0.208 decade-1, and the standard deviation reflects a decrease by rate of 0.023K decade-1. And the change of surface temperature in urban areas is affected by urbanization related to land cover such as decrease of greenery and increase of pavement area, but socioeconomic variables are less influential than NDVI in this study. This study are expected to provide an approach to future research and policy-planning for urban temperature change and urbanization impacts.

  20. Economic implications of climate-driven trends in global hydropower generation

    Turner, S. W. D.; Galelli, S.; Hejazi, M. I.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Kim, S. H.

    2017-12-01

    Recent progress in global scale hydrological and dam modeling has allowed for the study of climate change impacts on global hydropower production. Here we explore how these impacts could affect the composition of global electricity supply, and what those changes could mean for power sector emissions and investment needs in the 21st century. Regional hydropower projections are developed for two emissions scenarios by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model (1593 major hydropower dams; 54% global installed capacity) with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations derived from sixteen General Circulation Models (GCMs). To incorporate possible non-linearity in hydropower response to climate change, dam simulations incorporate plant specifications (e.g., maximum turbine flow), reservoir storage dynamics, reservoir bathymetry, evaporation losses and bespoke, site specific operations. Consequent impacts on regional and global-level electricity generation and associated emissions and investment costs are examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We show that changes in hydropower generation resulting from climate change can shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies, resulting in significant impacts on CO2 emissions for several regions. Many of these countries are also highly vulnerable to investment impacts (costs of new electricity generating facilities to make up for shortfalls in hydro), which in some cases amount to tens of billions of dollars by 2100. The Balkans region—typified by weak economies in a drying region that relies heavily on hydropower—emerges as the most vulnerable. Reduced impacts of climate change on hydropower production under a low emissions scenario coincide with increased costs of marginal power generating capacity (low emissions requires greater uptake of clean generating technologies, which are more expensive). This means impacts on power sector investment costs are similar for high

  1. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

    2012-09-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

  2. Low-Computation Strategies for Extracting CO2 Emission Trends from Surface-Level Mixing Ratio Observations

    Shusterman, A.; Kim, J.; Lieschke, K.; Newman, C.; Cohen, R. C.

    2017-12-01

    Global momentum is building for drastic, regulated reductions in greenhouse gas emissions over the coming decade. With this increasing regulation comes a clear need for increasingly sophisticated monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) strategies capable of enforcing and optimizing emissions-related policy, particularly as it applies to urban areas. Remote sensing and/or activity-based emission inventories can offer MRV insights for entire sectors or regions, but are not yet sophisticated enough to resolve unexpected trends in specific emitters. Urban surface monitors can offer the desired proximity to individual greenhouse gas sources, but due to the densely-packed nature of typical urban landscapes, surface observations are rarely representative of a single source. Most previous efforts to decompose these complex signals into their contributing emission processes have involved inverse atmospheric modeling techniques, which are computationally intensive and believed to depend heavily on poorly understood a priori estimates of error covariance. Here we present a number of transparent, low-computation approaches for extracting source-specific emissions estimates from signals with a variety of nearfield influences. Using observations from the first several years of the BErkeley Atmospheric CO2 Observation Network (BEACO2N), we demonstrate how to exploit strategic pairings of monitoring "nodes," anomalous wind conditions, and well-understood temporal variations to hone in on specific CO2 sources of interest. When evaluated against conventional, activity-based bottom-up emission inventories, these strategies are seen to generate quantitatively rigorous emission estimates. With continued application as the BEACO2N data set grows in time and space, these approaches offer a promising avenue for optimizing greenhouse gas mitigation strategies into the future.

  3. Inter-annual variability and trend detection of urban CO2, CH4 and CO emissions

    Lauvaux, T.; Deng, A.; Gurney, K. R.; Nathan, B.; Ye, X.; Oda, T.; Karion, A.; Hardesty, M.; Harvey, R. M.; Richardson, S.; Whetstone, J. R.; Hutyra, L.; Davis, K. J.; Brewer, A.; Gaudet, B. J.; Turnbull, J. C.; Sweeney, C.; Shepson, P. B.; Miles, N.; Bonin, T.; Wu, K.; Balashov, N. V.

    2017-12-01

    The Indianapolis Flux (INFLUX) Experiment has conducted an unprecedented volume of atmospheric greenhouse gas measurements across the Indianapolis metropolitan area from aircraft, remote-sensing, and tower-based observational platforms. Assimilated in a high-resolution urban inversion system, atmospheric data provide an independent constraint to existing emission products, directly supporting the integration of economic data into urban emission systems. We present here the first multi-year assessment of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions from anthropogenic activities in comparison to multiple bottom-up emission products. Biogenic CO2 fluxes are quantified using an optimized biogeochemical model at high resolution, further refined within the atmospheric inversion system. We also present the first sector-based inversion by jointly assimilating CO2 and CO mixing ratios to quantify the dominant sectors of emissions over the entire period (2012-2015). The detected trend in CO2 emissions over 2012-2015 from both bottom-up emission products and tower-based inversions agree within a few percent, with a decline in city emissions over the 3-year time period. Major changes occur at the primary power plant, suggesting a decrease in energy production within the city limits. The joint assimilation of CO2 and CO mixing ratios confirms the absence of trends in other sectors. However, top-down and bottom-up approaches tend to disagree annually, with a decline in urban emissions suggested by atmospheric data in 2014 that is several months earlier than is observed in the bottom-up products. Concerning CH4 emissions, the inversion shows a decrease since mid-2014 which may be due to lower landfill emissions or lower energy consumption (from coal and natural gas). This first demonstration of a high-accuracy long-term greenhouse gas measurement network merged with a high-resolution bottom-up information system highlights the potential for informing

  4. Trends in vehicular emissions in China's mega cities from 1995 to 2005

    Wang Haikun; Fu Lixin; Zhou Yu; Du Xuan; Ge Weihua

    2010-01-01

    Multiyear inventories of vehicular emissions in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou from 1995 through 2005 have been developed in this paper to study the vehicle emissions trends in China's mega cities during the past decade. The results show that the vehicular emissions of CO, HC, NO x and PM 10 have begun to slow their growth rates and perhaps even to decline in recent years due to the implementation of measures to control vehicular emissions in these cities. However, vehicular CO 2 emissions have substantially increased and still continue to grow due to little fuel economy improvement. Passenger cars and large vehicles (including heavy duty trucks and buses) are the major sources of vehicular CO 2 and CO emissions while large vehicles were responsible for nearly 70% and 80% of the vehicular NO x and PM 10 emissions in these mega cities. Motorcycles are also important contributors to vehicular emissions in Guangzhou and Shanghai. - The vehicular emissions (except CO 2 ) in China's mega cities have begun to slow their rates of growth and even to decline during the past decade.

  5. Towards a global environmental sociology? Legacies, trends and future directions

    Lidskog, Rolf; Mol, Arthur PJ; Oosterveer, Peter

    2014-01-01

    A current debate on environmental sociology involves how the subdiscipline should conceptualise and investigate the environment and whether it should be prescriptive and deliver policy recommendations. Taking this debate as a point of departure this article discusses the current and future role of sociology in a globalised world. It discusses how environmental sociology in the US and Europe differ in their understandings of sociology’s contribution to the study of the environment. Particular stress is placed on how these two regions differ with respect to their use of the tradition of sociological thought, views on what constitutes the environment and ways of institutionalising environmental sociology as a sociological field. In conclusion, the question is raised of whether current versions of environmental sociology are appropriate for analysing a globalised world environment; or whether environmental sociology’s strong roots in European and US cultures make it less relevant when facing an increasingly globalised world. Finally, the article proposes some new rules for a global environmental sociology and describes some of their possible implications for the sociological study of climate change. PMID:25937642

  6. Trends in Global and Regional Integration by means of Trade

    Iulia Monica Oehler-Șincai

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper we aim to emphasize several aspects of the economic integration realized through the channel of trade, from a double perspective. The first point of view is given by the formal framework, de jure, composed by the multitude of preferential trade agreements, while the second one, de facto, market-driven, is concretized by the global production networks. The first stance is exemplified through the agreements negotiated or concluded by the traditional trade powers, EU, US and Japan. Although, economically, EU is more present in Asia-Pacific than the US, the latter are politically more active and seem to gain ground. The second stance is underlined by means of the Asian integration specificity. East and South-East Asia represents the core of „Factory Asia” and is governed by the activity of the transnational corporations, their investment and cross-border networks, which makes the production process more fragmented and the regional economies more mutually dependent.

  7. Towards a global environmental sociology? Legacies, trends and future directions.

    Lidskog, Rolf; Mol, Arthur Pj; Oosterveer, Peter

    2015-05-01

    A current debate on environmental sociology involves how the subdiscipline should conceptualise and investigate the environment and whether it should be prescriptive and deliver policy recommendations. Taking this debate as a point of departure this article discusses the current and future role of sociology in a globalised world. It discusses how environmental sociology in the US and Europe differ in their understandings of sociology's contribution to the study of the environment. Particular stress is placed on how these two regions differ with respect to their use of the tradition of sociological thought, views on what constitutes the environment and ways of institutionalising environmental sociology as a sociological field. In conclusion, the question is raised of whether current versions of environmental sociology are appropriate for analysing a globalised world environment; or whether environmental sociology's strong roots in European and US cultures make it less relevant when facing an increasingly globalised world. Finally, the article proposes some new rules for a global environmental sociology and describes some of their possible implications for the sociological study of climate change.

  8. Global Disparities Since 1800: Trends and Regional Patterns

    M. Shahid Alam

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews the growing body of evidence on the relative economic standing of different regions of the world in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. In general, it does not find support for Euro-centric claims regarding Western Europe’s early economic lead. The Eurocentric claims are based primarily on estimates of per capita income, which are plagued by conceptual problems, make demands on historical data that are generally unavailable, and use questionable assumptions to reconstruct early per capita income. A careful examination of these conjectural estimates of per capita income, however, does not support claims that Western Europe had a substantial lead over the rest of the world at the beginning of the nineteenth century. An examination of several alternative indices of living standards in the late eighteenth or early nineteenth centuries—such as real wages, labor productivity in agriculture, and urbanization—also fails to confirm claims of European superiority. In addition, this paper examines the progress of global disparities—including the presence of regional patterns—using estimates of per capita income.

  9. Assessment of Global Emissions, Local Emissions and Immissions of Different Heating Systems

    Georg Erdmann

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses and compares existing and new technologies for space heating in Germany (e.g., heat pumps, and solar thermal and wood pellet systems in terms of their environmental impacts. The various technologies were analyzed within the context of the new German legislation. The assessment was carried out on three levels: 1. Global emissions: a life cycle assessment was carried out in order to find the global environmental footprint of the various technologies; 2. Local emissions: the effects of local emissions on human health were analyzed; and 3. Immissions: the immissions were evaluated for the various technologies using a dispersion calculation. A special feature of this study is the substitution of frequently used database emission values by values obtained from field studies and our own measurements. The results show large differences between the different technologies: while electric heat pumps performed quite well in most categories, wood pellet systems performed the best with respect to climate change. The latter, however, are associated with high impacts in other environmental impact categories and on a local scale. The promotion of some technologies (especially systems based on fuel oil, a mixture of fuel oil and rapeseed oil, or a mixture of natural gas and biomethane by the newly introduced German legislation is doubtful. In terms of the immissions of wood pellet systems, it can be concluded that, even for extremely unfavorable meteorological conditions, the regulatory limits are not exceeded and the heating systems have a negligible influence on the total PM load in the ambient air.

  10. We keep on truckin': Trends in freight energy use and carbon emissions in 11 IEA countries

    Eom, Jiyong; Schipper, Lee; Thompson, Lou

    2012-01-01

    Based on detailed national and international data on freight transportation, we analyze trends in freight CO 2 emissions in 11 IEA countries from the earliest year of data availability to 2007–2010. The cross-country comparison of the freight transportation sector indicates that per capita CO 2 emissions span a wide range and are mostly determined by local needs without full knowledge or coordination with policies and practices in other countries. Over the last several decades, while many developed countries have experienced decreased coupling between total freight activity (measured in tonne-km) and income, no major indication of decreased coupling between trucking and income was found. Rather, the coupling has been strengthened in many countries due to a continued increase in the share of trucking in total freight activity. The energy intensity of trucking has exhibited very large variation among the countries, and its recent international trends are mixed, providing greater challenges to reduce freight CO 2 emissions. Modal shift toward rail away from truck presents a sizeable opportunity to reduce freight CO 2 emissions, although the potential gain varies widely among the countries. - Highlights: ► We analyze trends in freight CO 2 emissions in 11 IEA countries. ► Many of them experienced decreased coupling between freight and income. ► No major indication of decoupling was found between trucking and income. ► The energy intensity of trucking exhibited very large variation. ► The trends of trucking energy intensity are mixed. ► There is a huge opportunity of reducing emissions by shifting toward rail.

  11. On the quality of global emission inventories. Approaches, methodologies, input data and uncertainties

    Olivier, J.G.J.

    2002-01-01

    Four key scientific questions will be investigated: (1) How does a user define the 'quality' of a global (or national) emission inventory? (Chapter 2); (2) What determines the quality of a global emission inventory? (Chapters 2 and 7); (3) How can inventory quality be achieved in practice and expressed in quantitative terms ('uncertainty')? (Chapters 3 to 6); and (4) What is the preferred approach for compiling a global emission inventory, given the practical limitations and the desired inventory quality? (Chapters 7 and 8)

  12. Global trends of acceptance and trade in irradiated foods

    Matin, M A [Food and Environmental Protection Section, Joint FAO/IAEA Division of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture, International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna (Austria)

    2001-05-01

    Issues as relevant to wide scale application of food irradiation are presented in this paper to provide current status of the technology. Global development on key issues such as public acceptance, public health improvement, safety and wholesomeness, regulatory aspects, potential application of the technology to ease quarantine problems in the trade of food and agricultural commodities as a viable alternative to fumigation with methyl bromide have been presented. Irradiation ensures the hygienic quality of food and extends shelf-life. Many international organizations and respected regional/national bodies agree on the merits of the technique and valuable contribution that the process can offer to safeguard the food supply worldwide. Codex General Standard for irradiated food and the associated Code of Practice for operation of the irradiation facilities used for the treatment of foods adopted in 1983 forms the regulatory basis for commercial utilization of the processing technology. More than 40 countries of the world have Standards/Regulations to process one or more food products by the irradiation process. Efforts are underway to harmonise national regulations on food irradiation to remove obstacles for international trade of irradiated products. There is a rapid development on commercial application of food irradiation in the USA and elsewhere in the past few months. There are already several existing commercial irradiators available for treating food in the USA and many more are planned to be built. Such commercial food irradiation facilities are also in different stage of development in Brazil, India, Mexico, Thailand, People's Republic of China, Republic of Korea. Roles of irradiation ensuring food safety, contributing food security and facilitating trade are more and more recognized in developed and developing countries alike. (author)

  13. Global trends of acceptance and trade in irradiated foods

    Matin, M.A.

    2001-01-01

    Issues as relevant to wide scale application of food irradiation are presented in this paper to provide current status of the technology. Global development on key issues such as public acceptance, public health improvement, safety and wholesomeness, regulatory aspects, potential application of the technology to ease quarantine problems in the trade of food and agricultural commodities as a viable alternative to fumigation with methyl bromide have been presented. Irradiation ensures the hygienic quality of food and extends shelf-life. Many international organizations and respected regional/national bodies agree on the merits of the technique and valuable contribution that the process can offer to safeguard the food supply worldwide. Codex General Standard for irradiated food and the associated Code of Practice for operation of the irradiation facilities used for the treatment of foods adopted in 1983 forms the regulatory basis for commercial utilization of the processing technology. More than 40 countries of the world have Standards/Regulations to process one or more food products by the irradiation process. Efforts are underway to harmonise national regulations on food irradiation to remove obstacles for international trade of irradiated products. There is a rapid development on commercial application of food irradiation in the USA and elsewhere in the past few months. There are already several existing commercial irradiators available for treating food in the USA and many more are planned to be built. Such commercial food irradiation facilities are also in different stage of development in Brazil, India, Mexico, Thailand, People's Republic of China, Republic of Korea. Roles of irradiation ensuring food safety, contributing food security and facilitating trade are more and more recognized in developed and developing countries alike. (author)

  14. Characterizing uncertainties in recent trends of global terrestrial net primary production through ensemble modeling

    Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Ganguly, S.; Votava, P.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R. B.

    2010-12-01

    Large uncertainties exist in our understanding of the trends and variability in global net primary production (NPP) and its controls. This study attempts to address this question through a multi-model ensemble experiment. In particular, we drive ecosystem models including CASA, LPJ, Biome-BGC, TOPS-BGC, and BEAMS with a long-term climate dataset (i.e., CRU-NCEP) to estimate global NPP from 1901 to 2009 at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree. We calculate the trends of simulated NPP during different time periods and test their sensitivities to climate variables of solar radiation, air temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and atmospheric CO2 levels. The results indicate a large diversity among the simulated NPP trends over the past 50 years, ranging from nearly no trend to an increasing trend of ~0.1 PgC/yr. Spatial patterns of the NPP generally show positive trends in boreal forests, induced mainly by increasing temperatures in these regions; they also show negative trends in the tropics, although the spatial patterns are more diverse. These diverse trends result from different climatic sensitivities of NPP among the tested models. Depending the ecological processes (e.g., photosynthesis or respiration) a model emphasizes, it can be more or less responsive to changes in solar radiation, temperatures, water, or atmospheric CO2 levels. Overall, these results highlight the limit of current ecosystem models in simulating NPP, which cannot be easily observed. They suggest that the traditional single-model approach is not ideal for characterizing trends and variability in global carbon cycling.

  15. Analysis of global water vapour trends from satellite measurements in the visible spectral range

    S. Mieruch

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Global water vapour total column amounts have been retrieved from spectral data provided by the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME flying on ERS-2, which was launched in April 1995, and the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY onboard ENVISAT launched in March 2002. For this purpose the Air Mass Corrected Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (AMC-DOAS approach has been used. The combination of the data from both instruments provides us with a long-term global data set spanning more than 11 years with the potential of extension up to 2020 by GOME-2 data on MetOp.

    Using linear and non-linear methods from time series analysis and standard statistics the trends of H2O columns and their errors have been calculated. In this study, factors affecting the trend such as the length of the time series, the magnitude of the variability of the noise, and the autocorrelation of the noise are investigated. Special emphasis has been placed on the calculation of the statistical significance of the observed trends, which reveal significant local changes from −5% per year to +5% per year. These significant trends are distributed over the whole globe. Increasing trends have been calculated for Greenland, East Europe, Siberia and Oceania, whereas decreasing trends have been observed for the northwest USA, Central America, Amazonia, Central Africa and the Arabian Peninsular.

  16. A stable boundary layer perspective on global temperature trends

    McNider, R T; Christy, J R; Biazar, A

    2010-01-01

    temperatures in the stable boundary layer are not very robust measures of the heat content in the deep atmosphere and climate models do not predict minimum temperatures well, minimum temperatures should not be used as a surrogate for measures of deep atmosphere global warming.

  17. AMSR-E/Aqua Monthly Global Microwave Land Surface Emissivity, Version 1

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set is a global land emissivity product using passive microwave observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System...

  18. Trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus.

    Yan, Shao-Min; Wu, Guang

    2009-12-01

    The global warming is an important factor affecting the biological evolution, and the influenza is an important disease that threatens humans with possible epidemics or pandemics. In this study, we attempted to analyze the trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus, because this protein is a target of anti-flu drug, and its mutation would have significant effect on the resistance to anti-flu drugs. The evolution of matrix protein 2 of influenza A virus from 1959 to 2008 was defined using the unpredictable portion of amino-acid pair predictability. Then the trend in this evolution was compared with the trend in the global temperature, the temperature in north and south hemispheres, and the temperature in influenza A virus sampling site, and species carrying influenza A virus. The results showed the similar trends in global warming and in evolution of M2 proteins although we could not correlate them at this stage of study. The study suggested the potential impact of global warming on the evolution of proteins from influenza A virus.

  19. Variability and Anomalous Trends in the Global Sea Ice Cover

    Comiso, Josefino C.

    2012-01-01

    The advent of satellite data came fortuitously at a time when the global sea ice cover has been changing rapidly and new techniques are needed to accurately assess the true state and characteristics of the global sea ice cover. The extent of the sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere has been declining by about -4% per decade for the period 1979 to 2011 but for the period from 1996 to 2010, the rate of decline became even more negative at -8% per decade, indicating an acceleration in the decline. More intriguing is the drastically declining perennial sea ice area, which is the ice that survives the summer melt and observed to be retreating at the rate of -14% per decade during the 1979 to 2012 period. Although a slight recovery occurred in the last three years from an abrupt decline in 2007, the perennial ice extent was almost as low as in 2007 in 2011. The multiyear ice, which is the thick component of the perennial ice and regarded as the mainstay of the Arctic sea ice cover is declining at an even higher rate of -19% per decade. The more rapid decline of the extent of this thicker ice type means that the volume of the ice is also declining making the survival of the Arctic ice in summer highly questionable. The slight recovery in 2008, 2009 and 2010 for the perennial ice in summer was likely associated with an apparent cycle in the time series with a period of about 8 years. Results of analysis of concurrent MODIS and AMSR-E data in summer also provide some evidence of more extensive summer melt and meltponding in 2007 and 2011 than in other years. Meanwhile, the Antarctic sea ice cover, as observed by the same set of satellite data, is showing an unexpected and counter intuitive increase of about 1 % per decade over the same period. Although a strong decline in ice extent is apparent in the Bellingshausen/ Amundsen Seas region, such decline is more than compensated by increases in the extent of the sea ice cover in the Ross Sea region. The results of analysis of

  20. The digital divide: Trends in global mobile and broadband Internet access from 2000-2010.

    Ronquillo, Charlene; Currie, Leanne

    2012-01-01

    The digital divide is described as the gap between those who do and do not have access to digital information and communications technologies (ICT). ICTs are viewed as an indicator of infrastructure and potential for development, and are a growing platform for health information and services delivery. This study compares the penetration of mobile and broadband Internet technologies by global region from 2000 to 2010. Results illustrate the rapid growth of mobile cellular telephone subscriptions in all global regions with trends suggesting a continued increase. Little to modest gains were made in fixed broadband Internet subscriptions globally. There is a growing popularity of mobile subscriptions with use of data communications, exceeding the numbers of fixed Internet subscriptions. This comparison reveals current strengths that can be built on and highlights the importance of awareness of global trends and using such knowledge to inform design and delivery of ICT-based health services.

  1. The digital divide: Trends in global mobile and broadband Internet access from 2000–2010

    Ronquillo, Charlene; Currie, Leanne

    2012-01-01

    The digital divide is described as the gap between those who do and do not have access to digital information and communications technologies (ICT). ICTs are viewed as an indicator of infrastructure and potential for development, and are a growing platform for health information and services delivery. This study compares the penetration of mobile and broadband Internet technologies by global region from 2000 to 2010. Results illustrate the rapid growth of mobile cellular telephone subscriptions in all global regions with trends suggesting a continued increase. Little to modest gains were made in fixed broadband Internet subscriptions globally. There is a growing popularity of mobile subscriptions with use of data communications, exceeding the numbers of fixed Internet subscriptions. This comparison reveals current strengths that can be built on and highlights the importance of awareness of global trends and using such knowledge to inform design and delivery of ICT-based health services. PMID:24199118

  2. An updated climatology of surface dimethlysulfide concentrations and emission fluxes in the global ocean

    Lana, A.; Bell, T. G.; Simó, R.; Vallina, S. M.; Ballabrera-Poy, J.; Kettle, A. J.; Dachs, J.; Bopp, L.; Saltzman, E. S.; Stefels, J.; Johnson, J. E.; Liss, P. S.

    2011-03-01

    The potentially significant role of the biogenic trace gas dimethylsulfide (DMS) in determining the Earth's radiation budget makes it necessary to accurately reproduce seawater DMS distribution and quantify its global flux across the sea/air interface. Following a threefold increase of data (from 15,000 to over 47,000) in the global surface ocean DMS database over the last decade, new global monthly climatologies of surface ocean DMS concentration and sea-to-air emission flux are presented as updates of those constructed 10 years ago. Interpolation/extrapolation techniques were applied to project the discrete concentration data onto a first guess field based on Longhurst's biogeographic provinces. Further objective analysis allowed us to obtain the final monthly maps. The new climatology projects DMS concentrations typically in the range of 1-7 nM, with higher levels occurring in the high latitudes, and with a general trend toward increasing concentration in summer. The increased size and distribution of the observations in the DMS database have produced in the new climatology substantially lower DMS concentrations in the polar latitudes and generally higher DMS concentrations in regions that were severely undersampled 10 years ago, such as the southern Indian Ocean. Using the new DMS concentration climatology in conjunction with state-of-the-art parameterizations for the sea/air gas transfer velocity and climatological wind fields, we estimate that 28.1 (17.6-34.4) Tg of sulfur are transferred from the oceans into the atmosphere annually in the form of DMS. This represents a global emission increase of 17% with respect to the equivalent calculation using the previous climatology. This new DMS climatology represents a valuable tool for atmospheric chemistry, climate, and Earth System models.

  3. Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.

    Antonius G T Schut

    Full Text Available Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010 derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.

  4. Speciation of anthropogenic emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds: a global gridded data set for 1970–2012

    G. Huang

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs include a large number of chemical species which differ significantly in their chemical characteristics and thus in their impacts on ozone and secondary organic aerosol formation. It is important that chemical transport models (CTMs simulate the chemical transformation of the different NMVOC species in the troposphere consistently. In most emission inventories, however, only total NMVOC emissions are reported, which need to be decomposed into classes to fit the requirements of CTMs. For instance, the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR provides spatially resolved global anthropogenic emissions of total NMVOCs. In this study the EDGAR NMVOC inventory was revised and extended in time and in sectors. Moreover the new version of NMVOC emission data in the EDGAR database were disaggregated on a detailed sector resolution to individual species or species groups, thus enhancing the usability of the NMVOC emission data by the modelling community. Region- and source-specific speciation profiles of NMVOC species or species groups are compiled and mapped to EDGAR processes (detailed resolution of sectors, with corresponding quality codes specifying the quality of the mapping. Individual NMVOC species in different profiles are aggregated to 25 species groups, in line with the common classification of the Global Emissions Initiative (GEIA. Global annual grid maps with a resolution of 0.1°  ×  0.1° for the period 1970–2012 are produced by sector and species. Furthermore, trends in NMVOC composition are analysed, taking road transport and residential sources in Germany and the United Kingdom (UK as examples.

  5. Sulfur dioxide emissions in China and sulfur trends in East Asia since 2000

    Z. Lu

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available With the rapid development of the economy, the sulfur dioxide (SO2 emission from China since 2000 is of increasing concern. In this study, we estimate the annual SO2 emission in China after 2000 using a technology-based methodology specifically for China. From 2000 to 2006, total SO2 emission in China increased by 53%, from 21.7 Tg to 33.2 Tg, at an annual growth rate of 7.3%. Emissions from power plants are the main sources of SO2 in China and they increased from 10.6 Tg to 18.6 Tg in the same period. Geographically, emission from north China increased by 85%, whereas that from the south increased by only 28%. The emission growth rate slowed around 2005, and emissions began to decrease after 2006 mainly due to the wide application of flue-gas desulfurization (FGD devices in power plants in response to a new policy of China's government. This paper shows that the trend of estimated SO2 emission in China is consistent with the trends of SO2 concentration and acid rain pH and frequency in China, as well as with the increasing trends of background SO2 and sulfate concentration in East Asia. A longitudinal gradient in the percentage change of urban SO2 concentration in Japan is found during 2000–2007, indicating that the decrease of urban SO2 is lower in areas close to the Asian continent. This implies that the transport of increasing SO2 from the Asian continent partially counteracts the local reduction of SO2 emission downwind. The aerosol optical depth (AOD products of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS are found to be highly correlated with the surface solar radiation (SSR measurements in East Asia. Using MODIS AOD data as a surrogate of SSR, we found that China and East Asia excluding Japan underwent a continuous dimming after 2000, which is in line with the dramatic increase in SO2 emission in

  6. Trends in emissions of acidifying species in Asia, 1985-1997

    Streets, D. G.; Tsai, N. Y.; Akimoto, H.; Oka, K.

    2000-01-01

    Acid deposition is a serious problem throughout much of Asia. Emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) and nitrogen oxides (NO x ) have been increasing steadily, as nations strive to increase their levels of economic development. Coal and fuel oil have been the main choices for powering industrial development; and, until recently, only a few countries (notably Japan and Taiwan) had taken significant steps to avert the atmospheric emissions that accompany fuel combustion. This paper discusses trends in emissions of SO 2 and NO x that have occurred in Asian countries in the period 1985--1997, using results from the RAINS-ASIA computer model and energy-use trends from the IEA Energy Statistics and Balances database. Emissions of SO 2 in Asia grew from 26.6 Tg in 1985 to 33.7 Tg in 1990 and to 39.2 Tg in 1997. Though SO 2 emissions used to grow as fast as fossil-fuel use, recent limitations on the sulfur content of coal and oil have slowed the growth. The annual-average emissions growth between 1990 and 1997 was only 1.1%, considerably less than the economic growth rate. Emissions of NO x , on the other hand, continue to grow rapidly, from 14.1 Tg in 1985 to 18.7 Tg in 1990 and 28.5 Tg in 1997, with no signs of abating. Thus, though SO 2 remains the major contributor to acidifying emissions in Asia, the role of NO x , will become more and more important in the future

  7. Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets

    Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.

    2012-04-01

    The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.

  8. Trends of greenhouse gas emissions from the road transport sector in India

    Singh, Anil; Gangopadhyay, S.; Nanda, P.K.; Bhattacharya, S.; Sharma, C.; Bhan, C.

    2008-01-01

    The road transport sector is the largest consumer of commercial fuel energy within the transportation system in India and accounts for nearly 35% of the total liquid commercial fuel consumption by all sectors. Gasoline and diesel consumption for road transportation have quadrupled between 1980 and 2000 due to about nine times increase in the number of vehicles and four-fold increase in freight and passenger travel demands. The paper elaborates the trends of energy consumption and consequent emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O and ozone precursor gases like CO, NO x and NMVOC in the road transport sector in India for the period from 1980 to 2000. For the first time, efforts have been made to apportion the fuels, both diesel and gasoline, across different categories of vehicles operating on the Indian roads. In order to generate more comprehensive and complete emission estimates, additionally, other minor fuel types like light diesel oil and fuel oil along with lubricants have also been taken into account. Emission estimates have revealed that nearly 27 Mt of CO 2 were emitted in 1980, increasing to about 105 Mt in 2000. Similar trends have also been observed for other gases. Further scope for improvements in emission estimation is possible by generating country specific emission factors for different vehicle categories and improvement in documentation of fuel consumption at segregated levels by fuel types and vehicle types

  9. Improvement of Global and Regional Mean Sea Level Trends Derived from all Altimetry Missions.

    Ablain, Michael; Benveniste, Jérôme; Faugere, Yannice; Larnicol, Gilles; Cazenave, Anny; Johannessen, Johnny A.; Stammer, Detlef; Timms, Gary

    2012-07-01

    The global mean sea level (GMSL) has been calculated on a continual basis since January 1993 using data from satellite altimetry missions. The global mean sea level (MSL) deduced from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2 is increasing with a global trend of 3.2 mm from 1993 to 2010 applying the post glacial rebound (MSL Aviso website http://www.jason.oceanobs.com/msl). Besides, the regional sea level trends bring out an inhomogeneous repartition of the ocean elevation with local MSL slopes ranging from +/- 8 mm/year. A study published in 2009 [Ablain et al., 2009] has shown that the global MSL trend uncertainty was estimated at +/-0.6 mm/year with a confidence interval of 90%. The main sources of errors at global and regional scales are due to the orbit calculation and the wet troposphere correction. But others sea-level components have also a significant impact on the long-term stability of MSL as for instance the stability of instrumental parameters and the atmospheric corrections. Thanks to recent studies performed in Sea Level Essential Climate Variable Project in the frame of the Climate Change Initiative, an ESA Programme, in addition to activities performed within the SALP/CNES, strong improvements have been provided for the estimation of the global and regional MSL trends. In this paper, we propose to describe them; they concern the orbit calculation thanks to new gravity fields, the atmospheric corrections thanks to ERA-interim reanalyses, the wet troposphere corrections thanks to the stability improvement, and also empirical corrections allowing us to link regional time series together better. These improvements are described at global and regional scale for all the altimetry missions.

  10. Analysis of monotonic greening and browning trends from global NDVI time-series

    Jong, de R.; Bruin, de S.; Wit, de A.J.W.; Schaepman, M.E.; Dent, D.L.

    2011-01-01

    Remotely sensed vegetation indices are widely used to detect greening and browning trends; especially the global coverage of time-series normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data which are available from 1981. Seasonality and serial auto-correlation in the data have previously been dealt

  11. Incidence and mortality of lung cancer: global trends and association with socioeconomic status.

    Wong, Martin C S; Lao, Xiang Qian; Ho, Kin-Fai; Goggins, William B; Tse, Shelly L A

    2017-10-30

    We examined the correlation between lung cancer incidence/mortality and country-specific socioeconomic development, and evaluated its most recent global trends. We retrieved its age-standardized incidence rates from the GLOBOCAN database, and temporal patterns were assessed from global databases. We employed simple linear regression analysis to evaluate their correlations with Human Development Index (HDI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. The average annual percent changes (AAPC) of the trends were evaluated from join-point regression analysis. Country-specific HDI was strongly correlated with age-standardized incidence (r = 0.70) and mortality (r = 0.67), and to a lesser extent GDP (r = 0.24 to 0.55). Among men, 22 and 30 (out of 38 and 36) countries showed declining incidence and mortality trends, respectively; whilst among women, 19 and 16 countries showed increasing incidence and mortality trends, respectively. Among men, the AAPCs ranged from -2.8 to -0.6 (incidence) and -3.6 to -1.1 (mortality) in countries with declining trend, whereas among women the AAPC range was 0.4 to 8.9 (incidence) and 1 to 4.4 (mortality) in countries with increasing trend. Among women, Brazil, Spain and Cyprus had the greatest incidence increase, and all countries in Western, Southern and Eastern Europe reported increasing mortality. These findings highlighted the need for targeted preventive measures.

  12. Quantitative assessment of industrial VOC emissions in China: Historical trend, spatial distribution, uncertainties, and projection

    Zheng, Chenghang; Shen, Jiali; Zhang, Yongxin; Huang, Weiwei; Zhu, Xinbo; Wu, Xuecheng; Chen, Linghong; Gao, Xiang; Cen, Kefa

    2017-02-01

    The temporal trends of industrial volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions was comprehensively summarized for the 2011 to 2013 period, and the projections for 2020 to 2050 for China were set. The results demonstrate that industrial VOC emissions in China increased from 15.3 Tg in 2011 to 29.4 Tg in 2013 at an annual average growth rate of 38.3%. Guangdong (3.45 Tg), Shandong (2.85 Tg), and Jiangsu (2.62 Tg) were the three largest contributors collectively accounting for 30.4% of the national total emissions in 2013. The top three average industrial VOC emissions per square kilometer were Shanghai (247.2 ton/km2), Tianjin (62.8 ton/km2), and Beijing (38.4 ton/km2), which were 12-80 times of the average level in China. The data from the inventory indicate that the use of VOC-containing products, as well as the production and use of VOCs as raw materials, as well as for storage and transportation contributed 75.4%, 10.3%, 9.1%, and 5.2% of the total emissions, respectively. ArcGIS was used to display the remarkable spatial distribution variation by allocating the emission into 1 km × 1 km grid cells with a population as surrogate indexes. Combined with future economic development and population change, as well as implementation of policy and upgrade of control technologies, three scenarios (scenarios A, B, and C) were set to project industrial VOC emissions for the years 2020, 2030, and 2050, which present the industrial VOC emissions in different scenarios and the potential of reducing emissions. Finally, the result shows that the collaborative control policies considerably influenced industrial VOC emissions.

  13. Freight from Space: Evaluating Freight Activity and Emissions Trends from Satellite Data

    Bickford, E.; Holloway, T.; Oberman, J.; Janssen, M.

    2012-12-01

    Heavy duty diesel freight trucks are the fastest growing source of highway emissions in the U.S., with domestic freight tonnage projected to double by 2050. Highway diesel vehicles currently account for 42% of on-road emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 58% of on-road fine particulate (PM2.5) emissions, and 21% of on-road carbon dioxide emissions. Because most surface air quality monitors are located in densely populated areas and not rural highways, it is difficult to use ground-based observations to validate spatial trends in transportation emissions. Therefore, we have employed satellite retrievals from the OMI instrument to inform surface freight transportation inventory estimates by validating modeled tropospheric vertical column total nitrogen dioxide (NO2) against satellite observations. For this research we built a roadway-by-roadway bottom-up diesel truck emissions inventory using GIS, the U.S. Federal Highway Administration's Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) activity dataset, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's MOVES emissions model. We use freight rail emissions from the Eastern Regional Technical Advisory Committee (ERTAC), inventory emissions from the Lake Michigan's Air Directors Consortium (LADCO) and the EPA's Community Multiscale Air Qualiy (CMAQ) model to simulate ground-level and tropospheric column concentrations of NO2. We also use the combination of models and satellite data to evaluate weekday-weekend patterns of NO2 concentrations and the relative contributions of highway diesel vehicles, highway gasoline vehicles, and freight rail to transportation-related pollution. This research presents the first evaluation of surface freight transport from space-based observations. We find satellite retrievals of surface pollutants provide a useful data tool for evaluating air quality models and constraining emissions sources.

  14. Trends in anthropogenic mercury emissions estimated for South Africa during 2000-2006

    Masekoameng, K.E.; Leaner, J.; Dabrowski, J. [CSIR, Pretoria (South Africa)

    2010-08-15

    Recent studies suggest an increase in mercury (Hg) emissions to the global environment, particularly as a result of anthropogenic activities. This has prompted many countries to complete Hg emission inventories, based on country-specific Hg sources. In this study, information on annual coal consumption and Hg-containing commodities produced in South Africa, was used to estimate Hg emissions during 2000-2006. Based on the information, the UNEP toolkit was used to estimate the amount of Hg released to air and general waste from each activity; using South Africa specific and toolkit based emission factors. In both atmospheric and solid waste releases, coal-fired power plants were estimated to be the largest contributors of Hg emissions, viz. 27.1 to 38.9 tonnes y{sup -1} in air, and 5.8 to 7.4 tonnes y{sup -1} in waste. Cement production was estimated to be the second largest atmospheric Hg emission contributor (2.2-3.9 tonnes y{sup -1}), while coal gasification was estimated to be the second largest Hg contributor in terms of general waste releases (2.9-4.2 tonnes y{sup -1}). Overall, there was an increase in total atmospheric Hg emissions from all activities, estimated at ca. 34 tonnes in 2000, to 50 tonnes in 2006, with some fluctuations between the years. Similarly, the total Hg emissions released to general waste was estimated to be 9 tonnes in 2000, with an increase to 12 tonnes in 2006.

  15. The role of natural climatic variation in perturbing the observed global mean temperature trend

    Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

    2011-02-15

    Controversy continues to prevail concerning the reality of anthropogenically-induced climatic warming. One of the principal issues is the cause of the hiatus in the current global warming trend. There appears to be a widely held view that climatic change warming should exhibit an inexorable upwards trend, a view that implies there is no longer any input by climatic variability in the existing climatic system. The relative roles of climatic change and climatic variability are examined here using the same coupled global climatic model. For the former, the model is run using a specified CO{sub 2} growth scenario, while the latter consisted of a multi-millennial simulation where any climatic variability was attributable solely to internal processes within the climatic system. It is shown that internal climatic variability can produce global mean surface temperature anomalies of {+-}0.25 K and sustained positive and negative anomalies sufficient to account for the anomalous warming of the 1940s as well as the present hiatus in the observed global warming. The characteristics of the internally-induced negative temperature anomalies are such that if this internal natural variability is the cause of the observed hiatus, then a resumption of the observed global warming trend is to be expected within the next few years. (orig.)

  16. Contribution of milk production to global greenhouse gas emissions. An estimation based on typical farms.

    Hagemann, Martin; Ndambi, Asaah; Hemme, Torsten; Latacz-Lohmann, Uwe

    2012-02-01

    Studies on the contribution of milk production to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are rare (FAO 2010) and often based on crude data which do not appropriately reflect the heterogeneity of farming systems. This article estimates GHG emissions from milk production in different dairy regions of the world based on a harmonised farm data and assesses the contribution of milk production to global GHG emissions. The methodology comprises three elements: (1) the International Farm Comparison Network (IFCN) concept of typical farms and the related globally standardised dairy model farms representing 45 dairy regions in 38 countries; (2) a partial life cycle assessment model for estimating GHG emissions of the typical dairy farms; and (3) standard regression analysis to estimate GHG emissions from milk production in countries for which no typical farms are available in the IFCN database. Across the 117 typical farms in the 38 countries analysed, the average emission rate is 1.50 kg CO(2) equivalents (CO(2)-eq.)/kg milk. The contribution of milk production to the global anthropogenic emissions is estimated at 1.3 Gt CO(2)-eq./year, accounting for 2.65% of total global anthropogenic emissions (49 Gt; IPCC, Synthesis Report for Policy Maker, Valencia, Spain, 2007). We emphasise that our estimates of the contribution of milk production to global GHG emissions are subject to uncertainty. Part of the uncertainty stems from the choice of the appropriate methods for estimating emissions at the level of the individual animal.

  17. Impacts of Global Manufacturing Trends on Port Development: The Case of Hong Kong1

    Abraham Zhang

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Global manufacturing trends may have profound implications for regional port development. This paper studies Hong Kong port (HKP, which has been one of the world's busiest container ports since the 1990s. In recent years, global manufacturers have started to move away from its primary cargo base, the Chinese Pearl River Delta. This study investigates impacts of the emerging global manufacturing trends on HKP development. It is found that relocation of manufacturing to Western Guangdong benefits HKP, while other relocation destinations make HKP less attractive or even irrelevant. Based on the findings, government policies are discussed that may be formulated to support the growth of the port and wider port-related economy.

  18. Temporal comparison of global inventories of CO2 emissions from biomass burning during 2002-2011 derived from remotely sensed data.

    Shi, Yusheng; Matsunaga, Tsuneo

    2017-07-01

    Biomass burning is a large important source of greenhouse gases and atmospheric aerosols, and can contribute greatly to the temporal variations of CO 2 emissions at regional and global scales. In this study, we compared four globally gridded CO 2 emission inventories from biomass burning during the period of 2002-2011, highlighting the similarities and differences in seasonality and interannual variability of the CO 2 emissions both at regional and global scales. The four datasets included Global Fire Emissions Database 4s with small fires (GFED4s), Global Fire Assimilation System 1.0 (GFAS1.0), Fire INventory from NCAR 1.0 (FINN1.0), and Global Inventory for Chemistry-Climate studies-GFED4s (G-G). The results showed that in general, the four inventories presented consistent temporal trend but with large differences as well. Globally, CO 2 emissions of GFED4s, GFAS1.0, and G-G all peaked in August with the exception in FINN1.0, which recorded another peak in annual March. The interannual trend of all datasets displayed an overall decrease in CO 2 emissions during 2002-2011, except for the inconsistent FINN1.0, which showed a tendency to increase during the considered period. Meanwhile, GFED4s and GFAS1.0 noted consistent agreement from 2002 to 2011 at both global (R 2  > 0.8) and continental levels (R 2  > 0.7). FINN1.0 was found to have the poorest temporal correlations with the other three inventories globally (R 2  80%) but showed small variations through the years (<40%).

  19. Global Fire Emissions Database, Version 3.1

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides monthly burned area, and monthly, and annual fire emissions data from July 1996 to February 2012. Emissions data are available for carbon (C),...

  20. GLOBAL FIRE EMISSIONS DATABASE, VERSION 3.1

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set provides monthly burned area, and monthly, and annual fire emissions data from July 1996 to February 2012. Emissions data are available for...

  1. Global Emissions of Nitrous Oxide: Key Source Sectors, their Future Activities and Technical Opportunities for Emission Reduction

    Winiwarter, W.; Höglund-Isaksson, L.; Klimont, Z.; Schöpp, W.; Amann, M.

    2017-12-01

    Nitrous oxide originates primarily from natural biogeochemical processes, but its atmospheric concentrations have been strongly affected by human activities. According to IPCC, it is the third largest contributor to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (after carbon dioxide and methane). Deep decarbonization scenarios, which are able to constrain global temperature increase within 1.5°C, require strategies to cut methane and nitrous oxide emissions on top of phasing out carbon dioxide emissions. Employing the Greenhouse gas and Air pollution INteractions and Synergies (GAINS) model, we have estimated global emissions of nitrous oxide until 2050. Using explicitly defined emission reduction technologies we demonstrate that, by 2030, about 26% ± 9% of the emissions can be avoided assuming full implementation of currently existing reduction technologies. Nearly a quarter of this mitigation can be achieved at marginal costs lower than 10 Euro/t CO2-eq with the chemical industry sector offering important reductions. Overall, the largest emitter of nitrous oxide, agriculture, also provides the largest emission abatement potentials. Emission reduction may be achieved by precision farming methods (variable rate technology) as well as by agrochemistry (nitrification inhibitors). Regionally, the largest emission reductions are achievable where intensive agriculture and industry are prevalent (production and application of mineral fertilizers): Centrally Planned Asia including China, North and Latin America, and South Asia including India. Further deep cuts in nitrous oxide emissions will require extending reduction efforts beyond strictly technological solutions, i.e., considering behavioral changes, including widespread adoption of "healthy diets" minimizing excess protein consumption.

  2. Acid emissions monitoring needs in ceramic tile industry: challenges derived from new policy trends

    Celades, Irina; Gomar, Salvador; Romero, Fernando; Chauhan, Amisha; Delpech, Bertrand; Jouhara, Hussam

    2017-11-01

    The emission of acid compounds during the manufacture of ceramic tiles is strongly related to the presence of precursors in the raw materials and/or fuels used, with some exceptions such as the production of thermal NOX. The stages with the potential to produce significant emissions of these compounds have been identified as the suspension spray drying and tile firing stages. The monitoring of emission levels of acid pollutants in these stages has turned in a great importance issue from a regulatory and industrial aspect. The DREAM project (https://www.spire2030.eu/dream) will tackle the regulation of acidic emissions focusing in the firing stage. The initial stages of the project have made it possible to identify the design requirements for the monitoring system. This will allow the control of acid pollutants emissions and other key parameters such as pressure, flow, temperature and humidity. One of the tasks developed has been the review and compilation of current emissions monitoring systems detailing technical specifications such as: position (in situ or extractive), measurement principle and frequency. The future policy trends in air pollution are encouraging the continuous monitoring across the European industry. The present document assesses the advantages regarding environmental impact control, highlighting the main challenges for the ceramic tile industry.

  3. From Oil Crisis to Climate Change. Understanding CO2 Emission Trends in IEA Countries

    Unander, F.

    2003-11-01

    OECD CO2 emissions from fuel combustion increased 13% between 1990 and 2001. This signals an important shift since, over the 1973 to 1990 period, emissions only increased by 3.4%. As a result, CO2 emissions from energy use (fuel combustion) contributed 81.1% of total OECD greenhouse gas emissions in 2001 compared to 77.7% in 1990. As these figures make clear, reducing CO2 emissions from fuel combustion constitutes a key challenge to combat climate change. Developing and successfully implementing the most efficient policies for reducing CO2 emissions requires a good understanding of how factors such as income, prices, demography, economic structure, lifestyle, climate, energy efficiency and fuel mix affect energy use and resulting CO2 emissions. This paper presents selected results from the analysis of CO2 developments included in the IEA publication 'From Oil Crisis to Climate Challenge: 30 Years of Energy Use in IEA Countries'. The paper gives a brief overview of aggregate CO2 emission trends and of how recent developments in selected IEA countries compare to emissions levels implied by the Kyoto targets. A deeper understanding of the aggregate trends is provided by showing results from a decomposition analysis and by discussing developments in key end-use sectors. The full publication presents a more detailed analysis of how various factors have shaped energy use patterns and CO2 emissions since 1973. The analysis draws on a newly developed database with detailed information on energy use in the manufacturing, household, service and transport sectors. The database represents the most disaggregated information available on a consistent basis across countries and sectors. The study uses quantitative measures to illustrate the forces that drive or restrain energy use. These measures - or indicators - include: activities such as manufacturing output or heated-floor-area of homes; structural developments such as changes in manufacturing output mix or changes in the

  4. Transport and Environment Database System (TRENDS): Maritime Air Pollutant Emission Modelling

    Georgakaki, Aliki; Coffey, Robert; Lock, Grahm

    2005-01-01

    This paper reports the development of the maritime module within the framework of the Transport and Environment Database System (TRENDS) project. A detailed database has been constructed for the calculation of energy consumption and air pollutant emissions. Based on an in-house database...... changes from findings reported in Methodologies for Estimating air pollutant Emissions from Transport (MEET). The database operates on statistical data provided by Eurostat, which describe vessel and freight movements from and towards EU 15 major ports. Data are at port to Maritime Coastal Area (MCA...... with a view to this purpose, are mentioned. Examples of the results obtained by the database are presented. These include detailed air pollutant emission calculations for bulk carriers entering the port of Helsinki, as an example of the database operation, and aggregate results for different types...

  5. Global Trend Analysis of Multi-decade Soil Temperature Records Show Soils Resistant to Warming

    Frey, S. D.; Jennings, K.

    2017-12-01

    Soil temperature is an important determinant of many subterranean ecological processes including plant growth, nutrient cycling, and carbon sequestration. Soils are expected to warm in response to increasing global surface temperatures; however, despite the importance of soil temperature to ecosystem processes, less attention has been given to examining changes in soil temperature over time. We collected long-term (> 20 years) soil temperature records from approximately 50 sites globally, many with multiple depths (5 - 100 cm), and examined temperature trends over the last few decades. For each site and depth we calculated annual summer means and conducted non-parametric Mann Kendall trend and Sen slope analysis to assess changes in summer soil temperature over the length of each time series. The mean summer soil temperature trend across all sites and depths was not significantly different than zero (mean = 0.004 °C year-1 ± 0.033 SD), suggesting that soils have not warmed over the observation period. Of the subset of sites that exhibit significant increases in temperature over time, site location, depth of measurement, time series length, and neither start nor end date seem to be related to trend strength. These results provide evidence that the thermal regime of soils may have a stronger buffering capacity than expected, having important implications for the global carbon cycle and feedbacks to climate change.

  6. Time trend of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon emission factors from motor vehicles

    Tao, Shu; Shen, Huizhong; Wang, Rong; Sun, Kang

    2010-05-01

    Motor vehicle is an important emission source of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and this is particularly true in urban areas. Motor vehicle emission factors (EFs) for individual PAH compound reported in the literature varied for 4 to 5 orders of magnitude, leading to high uncertainty in emission estimation. In this study, the major factors affecting EFs were investigated and characterized by regression models. Based on the model developed, a motor vehicle PAH emission inventory at country level was developed. It was found that country and model year are the most important factors affecting EFs for PAHs. The influence of the two factors can be quantified by a single parameter of per capita gross domestic production (purchasing power parity), which was used as the independent variables of the regression models. The models developed using randomly selected 80% of measurements and tested with the remained data accounted for 28 to 48% of the variations in EFs for PAHs measured in 16 countries over 50 years. The regression coefficients of the EF prediction models were molecular weight dependent. Motor vehicle emission of PAHs from individual countries in the world in 1985, 1995, 2005, 2015, and 2025 were calculated and the global emission of total PAHs were 470, 390, and 430 Gg in 1985, 1995, and 2005 and will be 290 and 130 Gg in 2015 and 2025, respectively. The emission is currently passing its peak and will decrease due to significant decrease in China and other developing countries.

  7. Global Trends in Seasonality of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, 1982–2011

    Assaf Anyamba

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available A 30-year series of global monthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI imagery derived from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS NDVI3g archive was analyzed for the presence of trends in changing seasonality. Using the Seasonal Trend Analysis (STA procedure, over half (56.30% of land surfaces were found to exhibit significant trends. Almost half (46.10% of the significant trends belonged to three classes of seasonal trends (or changes. Class 1 consisted of areas that experienced a uniform increase in NDVI throughout the year, and was primarily associated with forested areas, particularly broadleaf forests. Class 2 consisted of areas experiencing an increase in the amplitude of the annual seasonal signal whereby increases in NDVI in the green season were balanced by decreases in the brown season. These areas were found primarily in grassland and shrubland regions. Class 3 was found primarily in the Taiga and Tundra biomes and exhibited increases in the annual summer peak in NDVI. While no single attribution of cause could be determined for each of these classes, it was evident that they are primarily found in natural areas (as opposed to anthropogenic land cover conversions and that they are consistent with climate-related ameliorations of growing conditions during the study period.

  8. Impacts of nationally determined contributions on 2030 global greenhouse gas emissions: uncertainty analysis and distribution of emissions

    Benveniste, Hélène; Boucher, Olivier; Guivarch, Céline; Le Treut, Hervé; Criqui, Patrick

    2018-01-01

    Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), submitted by Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change before and after the 21st Conference of Parties, summarize domestic objectives for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions for the 2025-2030 time horizon. In the absence, for now, of detailed guidelines for the format of NDCs, ancillary data are needed to interpret some NDCs and project GHG emissions in 2030. Here, we provide an analysis of uncertainty sources and their impacts on 2030 global GHG emissions based on the sole and full achievement of the NDCs. We estimate that NDCs project into 56.8-66.5 Gt CO2eq yr-1 emissions in 2030 (90% confidence interval), which is higher than previous estimates, and with a larger uncertainty range. Despite these uncertainties, NDCs robustly shift GHG emissions towards emerging and developing countries and reduce international inequalities in per capita GHG emissions. Finally, we stress that current NDCs imply larger emissions reduction rates after 2030 than during the 2010-2030 period if long-term temperature goals are to be fulfilled. Our results highlight four requirements for the forthcoming ‘climate regime’: a clearer framework regarding future NDCs’ design, an increasing participation of emerging and developing countries in the global mitigation effort, an ambitious update mechanism in order to avoid hardly feasible decarbonization rates after 2030 and an anticipation of steep decreases in global emissions after 2030.

  9. Current trends in the global tourism industry: evidence from the United States

    Nejdet Delener

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Tourism is one of the largest U.S. industries, serving millions of international and domestic tourists yearly. Tourists visit the U.S. to see natural wonders, cities, historic landmarks, and entertainment venues. Americans seek similar attractions as well as recreation and vacation areas. Tourism competes in the global market, so it is important to understand current trends in the U.S. travel industry. Therefore, this article offers insight into important trends and suggests strategies for policy makers involved in the travel and tourism industry.

  10. Global trends in significant wave height and marine wind speed from the ERA-20CM

    Aarnes, Ole Johan; Breivik, Øyvind

    2016-04-01

    The ERA-20CM is one of the latest additions to the ERA-series produced at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). This 10 member ensemble is generated with a version of the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), a coupled atmosphere-wave model. The model integration is run as a AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) constrained by CMIP5 recommended radiative forcing and different realizations of sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice cover (SIC) prescribed by the HadISST2 (Met Office Hadley Center). While the ERA-20CM is unable to reproduce the actual synoptic conditions, it is designed to offer a realistic statistical representation of the past climate, spanning the period 1899-2010. In this study we investigate global trends in significant wave height and marine wind speed based on ERA-20CM, using monthly mean data, upper percentiles and monthly/annual maxima. The aim of the study is to assess the quality of the trends and how these estimates are affected by different SST and SIC. Global trends are compared against corresponding estimates obtained with ERA-Interim (1979-2009), but also crosschecked against ERA-20C - an ECMWF pilot reanalysis of the 20th-century, known to most trustworthy in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Over the period 1900-2009, the 10 member ensemble yields trends mainly within +/- 5% per century. However, significant trends of opposite signs are found locally. Certain areas, like the eastern equatorial Pacific, highly affected by the El Niño Southern Oscillation, show stronger trends. In general, trends based on statistical quantities further into the tail of the distribution are found less reliable.

  11. Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2011. Tracking progress towards Kyoto and 2020 targets

    Busche, J.; Scheffler, M.; Graichen, V. (Umweltbundesamt, Vienna (Austria)) (and others)

    2011-10-15

    At the end of 2010, the EU-15 was on track to achieve its Kyoto target but three EU-15 Member States (Austria, Italy and Luxembourg) were not on track to meet their burden-sharing targets. These countries must therefore seriously consider further action to ensure compliance, in particular revising their plans on using flexible mechanisms. Among the EEA member countries outside the EU, Liechtenstein and Switzerland were not on track to achieve their Kyoto target at the end of 2009. All other European countries are on track to meet their targets, either based on domestic emissions only or with the assistance of Kyoto mechanisms. The economic recession had a significant impact on the EU's total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends but a more limited effect on progress towards Kyoto targets. This is because emissions in the sectors covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), which were most affected by the crisis, do not affect Kyoto compliance once ETS caps have been set. With existing national measures, Member States do not project enough emission reductions for the EU to meet its unilateral 20 % reduction commitment in 2020. Additional measures currently planned by Member States will help further reduce emissions but will be insufficient to achieve the important emission cuts needed in the longer term. By 2020 Member States must enhance their efforts to reduce emissions in non-EU ETS sectors, such as the residential, transport or agriculture sectors, where legally binding national targets have been set under the EU's 2009 climate and energy package. (Author)

  12. Future role and significance of space activities in reflection of global social, technological and economic trends

    Diekmann, Andreas; Richarz, Hans.-Peter

    The paper describes the interrelation of space activities and global socio-economic trends like "globalisation of markets" and "renaissance of fine arts". The interrelation reveals the economic strategic, technological and scientific dimension of space activities and their benefits to mankind. Then, the significance and perspectives of space activities in these dimensions are examined in more detail. The paper calls (1) for a more visible initiative to employ space activities to tackle urgent questions of global change and development, and (2) for a stronger impetus to secure European economic position in space sector as a key industry of the 21st century.

  13. Global Trends and Development Prospects for Oil and the Oil Products Market

    Maria Dorozhkina

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the important issue of the development of the global market of oil and oil products. It offers an overview of how this market was formed and its current status, classification, location and potential of countries in the oil and oil processing business. It analyzes the Ukrainian oil products market. The article discusses the shortcomings and strategic areas for the development of Ukraine’s oil transport system. It presents an optimum method for creating integration groups in order to develop the oil processing business in Ukraine for the future. The article considers the main trends and outlines development prospects for the global oil and oil products market.

  14. The economic payoff for global warming emissions reduction

    Shelton, Sam V.; Schaefer, Laura A.

    1999-01-01

    In order to meet the 1997 Kyoto treaty targets, U.S. carbon emissions must be severely curtailed. While top-down economic models predict that cutting carbon emissions will produce high costs, higher efficiency technology, such as residential electric heat pump water heaters, can cause carbon reduction to become profitable. In a single-family residence, replacing an electric resistance water heater with a heat pump water heater can reduce carbon emissions by 0.6 tons per year and produce savings of $1200 over a twelve-year period., rather than costs. National implementation of this single technology would reduce electric power plant carbon emissions by 5 percent. (Author)

  15. A research on the effect of global trends in Turkish kitchen furniture sector

    Ersin Uçar

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Through survey results, this study evaluated global trends’ effects on Turkish kitchen furniture production. The level of knowledge and difficulties of catching up with and implementing developmental trends in the Turkish kitchen furniture sector has been seen as having a structure equivalent to world standards because the level of material and technological development has been determined by four criteria: consumer demand, housing plans, technology inadequacy, and material inadequacy. According to the results, findings in this framework, consumer demand was most influential (45.4% in capturing and implementing enterprises’ trends. Evaluation results on kitchen furniture projects implemented by Turkish enterprises within the last 5 years showed that they mostly worked with models with one-lid views in cabinet-door applications (41.6%. As a result, world trends reflect the direct influence of Turkish kitchen furniture manufacturers on cabinet-door models and color preferences for kitchen units.

  16. Global trends in research related to social media in psychology: mapping and bibliometric analysis

    Zyoud, Sa’ed H.; Sweileh, Waleed M.; Awang, Rahmat; Al-Jabi, Samah W.

    2018-01-01

    Background Social media, defined as interactive Web applications, have been on the rise globally, particularly among adults. The objective of this study was to investigate the trend of the literature related to the most used social network worldwide (i.e. Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Snapchat, and Instagram) in the field of psychology. Specifically, this study will assess the growth in publications, citation analysis, international collaboration, author productivity, emerging topics and the m...

  17. Vehicle emission trends and spatial distribution in Shandong province, China, from 2000 to 2014

    Sun, Shida; Jiang, Wei; Gao, Weidong

    2016-12-01

    Vehicle emissions have become a major source of air pollution in Shandong province, which has experienced a sharp growth of vehicle numbers in recent years and now has the largest vehicle population in China. This paper combines the COPERT IV model with the vehicle age distribution to estimate the temporal trends and map the spatial distributions of vehicle emissions in Shandong province during the period ranging from 2000 to 2014. Both conventional air pollutants and greenhouse gases are included. In addition, a high-resolution vehicle emission inventory at the prefecture level is developed and mapped on a 0.05° × 0.05° grid based on road information. Our results show that the emissions of all of the conventional air pollutants have decreased to various extents over the recent past, but greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase due to the lack of effective control strategies. The total emissions of CO, NMVOC, NOX, PM10, CO2, CH4 and N2O from the Shandong vehicle fleet changed from 1734.5 Gg, 277.9 Gg, 177.0 Gg, 12.4 Gg, 19239.7 Gg, 11.3 Gg and 0.6 Gg, respectively, in 2000 to 1723.3 Gg, 234.2 Gg, 513.8 Gg, 29.5 Gg, 138,419.5 Gg, 15.3 Gg and 3.9 Gg, respectively, in 2014. Vehicle emissions were mainly concentrated in cities and became more dispersed in Shandong province between 2000 and 2014.

  18. Origin of path independence between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming

    Seshadri, Ashwin K.

    2017-11-01

    Observations and GCMs exhibit approximate proportionality between cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and global warming. Here we identify sufficient conditions for the relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming to be independent of the path of CO2 emissions; referred to as "path independence". Our starting point is a closed form expression for global warming in a two-box energy balance model (EBM), which depends explicitly on cumulative emissions, airborne fraction and time. Path independence requires that this function can be approximated as depending on cumulative emissions alone. We show that path independence arises from weak constraints, occurring if the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions (equal to ratio between cumulative emissions and emissions rate) is small compared to the timescale for changes in airborne fraction (which depends on CO2 uptake), and also small relative to a derived climate model parameter called the damping-timescale, which is related to the rate at which deep-ocean warming affects global warming. Effects of uncertainties in the climate model and carbon cycle are examined. Large deep-ocean heat capacity in the Earth system is not necessary for path independence, which appears resilient to climate modeling uncertainties. However long time-constants in the Earth system carbon cycle are essential, ensuring that airborne fraction changes slowly with timescale much longer than the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions. Therefore path independence between cumulative emissions and warming cannot arise for short-lived greenhouse gases.

  19. Global atmospheric emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from 1960 to 2008 and future predictions

    Shen, Huizhong; Huang, Ye; Wang, Rong; Zhu, Dan; Li, Wei; Shen, Guofeng; Wang, Bin; Zhang, Yanyan; Chen, Yuanchen; Lu, Yan; Chen, Han; Li, Tongchao; Sun, Kang; Li, Bengang; Liu, Wenxin

    2013-01-01

    Global atmospheric emissions of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from 69 major sources were estimated for a period from 1960 to 2030. Regression models and a technology split method were used to estimate country and time specific emission factors, resulting in a new estimate of PAH emission factor variation among different countries and over time. PAH emissions in 2007 were spatially resolved to 0.1°× 0.1° grids based on a newly developed global high-resolution fuel combustion inven...

  20. Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales

    Frölicher, Thomas L; Paynter, David J

    2015-01-01

    The transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) is a highly policy-relevant quantity in climate science. The TCRE suggests that peak warming is linearly proportional to cumulative carbon emissions and nearly independent of the emissions scenario. Here, we use simulations of the Earth System Model (ESM) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to show that global mean surface temperature may increase by 0.5 °C after carbon emissions are stopped at 2 °C global warming, implying an increase in the coefficient relating global warming to cumulative carbon emissions on multi-centennial timescales. The simulations also suggest a 20% lower quota on cumulative carbon emissions allowed to achieve a policy-driven limit on global warming. ESM estimates from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5–ESMs) qualitatively agree on this result, whereas Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) simulations, used in the IPCC 5th assessment report to assess the robustness of TCRE on multi-centennial timescales, suggest a post-emissions decrease in temperature. The reason for this discrepancy lies in the smaller simulated realized warming fraction in CMIP5–ESMs, including GFDL ESM2M, than in EMICs when carbon emissions increase. The temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions can be characterized by three different phases and the linear TCRE framework is only valid during the first phase when carbon emissions increase. For longer timescales, when emissions tape off, two new metrics are introduced that better characterize the time-dependent temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions: the equilibrium climate response to cumulative carbon emissions and the multi-millennial climate response to cumulative carbon emissions. (letter)

  1. Inter-annual trend of the primary contribution of ship emissions to PM2.5 concentrations in Venice (Italy): Efficiency of emissions mitigation strategies

    Contini, Daniele; Gambaro, Andrea; Donateo, Antonio; Cescon, Paolo; Cesari, Daniela; Merico, Eva; Belosi, Franco; Citron, Marta

    2015-02-01

    Ships and harbour emissions are currently increasing, due to the increase of tourism and trade, with potential impact on global air pollution and climate. At local scale, in-port ship emissions influence air quality in coastal areas impacting on health of coastal communities. International legislations to reduce ship emissions, both at Worldwide and European levels, are mainly based on the use of low-sulphur content fuel. In this work an analysis of the inter-annual trends of primary contribution, ε, of tourist shipping to the atmospheric PM2.5 concentrations in the urban area of Venice has been performed. Measurements have been taken in the summer periods of 2007, 2009 and 2012. Results show a decrease of ε from 7% (±1%) in 2007 to 5% (±1%) in 2009 and to 3.5% (±1%) in 2012. The meteorological and micrometeorological conditions of the campaigns were similar. Tourist ship traffic during measurement campaigns increased, in terms of gross tonnage, of about 25.4% from 2007 to 2009 and of 17.6% from 2009 to 2012. The decrease of ε was associated to the effect of a voluntary agreement (Venice Blue Flag) for the use of low-sulphur content fuel enforced in the area between 2007 and 2009 and to the implementation of the 2005/33/CE Directive in 2010. Results show that the use of low-sulphur fuel could effectively reduce the impact of shipping to atmospheric primary particles at local scale. Further, voluntary agreement could also be effective in reducing the impact of shipping on local air quality in coastal areas.

  2. US surface ozone trends and extremes from 1980 to 2014: quantifying the roles of rising Asian emissions, domestic controls, wildfires, and climate

    Lin, Meiyun; Horowitz, Larry W.; Payton, Richard; Fiore, Arlene M.; Tonnesen, Gail

    2017-03-01

    US surface O3 responds to varying global-to-regional precursor emissions, climate, and extreme weather, with implications for designing effective air quality control policies. We examine these conjoined processes with observations and global chemistry-climate model (GFDL-AM3) hindcasts over 1980-2014. The model captures the salient features of observed trends in daily maximum 8 h average O3: (1) increases over East Asia (up to 2 ppb yr-1), (2) springtime increases at western US (WUS) rural sites (0.2-0.5 ppb yr-1) with a baseline sampling approach, and (3) summertime decreases, largest at the 95th percentile, and wintertime increases in the 50th to 5th percentiles over the eastern US (EUS). Asian NOx emissions have tripled since 1990, contributing as much as 65 % to modeled springtime background O3 increases (0.3-0.5 ppb yr-1) over the WUS, outpacing O3 decreases attained via 50 % US NOx emission controls. Methane increases over this period contribute only 15 % of the WUS background O3 increase. Springtime O3 observed in Denver has increased at a rate similar to remote rural sites. During summer, increasing Asian emissions approximately offset the benefits of US emission reductions, leading to weak or insignificant observed O3 trends at WUS rural sites. Mean springtime WUS O3 is projected to increase by ˜ 10 ppb from 2010 to 2030 under the RCP8.5 global change scenario. While historical wildfire emissions can enhance summertime monthly mean O3 at individual sites by 2-8 ppb, high temperatures and the associated buildup of O3 produced from regional anthropogenic emissions contribute most to elevating observed summertime O3 throughout the USA. GFDL-AM3 captures the observed interannual variability of summertime EUS O3. However, O3 deposition sink to vegetation must be reduced by 35 % for the model to accurately simulate observed high-O3 anomalies during the severe drought of 1988. Regional NOx reductions alleviated the O3 buildup during the recent heat waves of 2011

  3. Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection

    Rogelj, Joeri; Riahi, Keywan; Schaeffer, Michiel; Hare, William; Meinshausen, Malte; Knutti, Reto; Alcamo, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO 2 ). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO 2 emissions at some point. Policymakers have now incorporated this concept in the negotiating text for a new global climate agreement, but confusion remains about concepts like carbon neutrality, climate neutrality, full decarbonization, and net zero carbon or net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here we clarify these concepts, discuss their appropriateness to serve as a long-term global benchmark for achieving temperature targets, and provide a detailed quantification. We find that with current pledges and for a likely (>66%) chance of staying below 2 °C, the scenario literature suggests net zero CO 2 emissions between 2060 and 2070, with net negative CO 2 emissions thereafter. Because of residual non-CO 2 emissions, net zero is always reached later for total GHG emissions than for CO 2 . Net zero emissions targets are a useful focal point for policy, linking a global temperature target and socio-economic pathways to a necessary long-term limit on cumulative CO 2 emissions. (letter)

  4. Spatial and Temporal Variability and Trends in 2001-2016 Global Fire Activity

    Earl, Nick; Simmonds, Ian

    2018-03-01

    Fire regimes across the globe have great spatial and temporal variability, and these are influence by many factors including anthropogenic management, climate, and vegetation types. Here we utilize the satellite-based "active fire" product, from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors, to statistically analyze variability and trends in fire activity from the global to regional scales. We split up the regions by economic development, region/geographical land use, clusters of fire-abundant areas, or by religious/cultural influence. Weekly cycle tests are conducted to highlight and quantify part of the anthropogenic influence on fire regime across the world. We find that there is a strong statistically significant decline in 2001-2016 active fires globally linked to an increase in net primary productivity observed in northern Africa, along with global agricultural expansion and intensification, which generally reduces fire activity. There are high levels of variability, however. The large-scale regions exhibit either little change or decreasing in fire activity except for strong increasing trends in India and China, where rapid population increase is occurring, leading to agricultural intensification and increased crop residue burning. Variability in Canada has been linked to a warming global climate leading to a longer growing season and higher fuel loads. Areas with a strong weekly cycle give a good indication of where fire management is being applied most extensively, for example, the United States, where few areas retain a natural fire regime.

  5. EU effect: Exporting emission standards for vehicles through the global market economy.

    Crippa, M; Janssens-Maenhout, G; Guizzardi, D; Galmarini, S

    2016-12-01

    Emission data from EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research), rather than economic data, are used to estimate the effect of policies and of the global exports of policy-regulated goods, such as vehicles, on global emissions. The results clearly show that the adoption of emission standards for the road transport sector in the two main global markets (Europe and North America) has led to the global proliferation of emission-regulated vehicles through exports, regardless the domestic regulation in the country of destination. It is in fact more economically convenient for vehicle manufacturers to produce and sell a standard product to the widest possible market and in the greatest possible amounts. The EU effect (European Union effect) is introduced as a global counterpart to the California effect. The former is a direct consequence of the penetration of the EURO standards in the global markets by European and Japanese manufacturers, which effectively export the standard worldwide. We analyze the effect on PM 2.5 emissions by comparing a scenario of non-EURO standards against the current estimates provided by EDGAR. We find that PM 2.5 emissions were reduced by more than 60% since the 1990s worldwide. Similar investigations on other pollutants confirm the hypothesis that the combined effect of technological regulations and their diffusion through global markets can also produce a positive effect on the global environment. While we acknowledge the positive feedback, we also demonstrate that current efforts and standards will be totally insufficient should the passenger car fleets in emerging markets reach Western per capita figures. If emerging countries reach the per capita vehicle number of the USA and Europe under current technological conditions, then the world will suffer pre-1990 emission levels. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Air toxic emissions from burning of biomass globally-preliminary results

    Ward, D.E.; Hao, W.M.

    1992-01-01

    Emissions of trace gases, particles, and air toxic substances in the smoke plumes from biomass fires are of importance to global climate change. The potential impact of the air toxic emissions on the human population of specific regions globally is another major concern. The toxic materials are produced in high concentrations in areas of heavy biomass burning, e.g., Amazon Basin and Central/southern Africa. We provide new estimates of air toxics based on the combustion efficiency (percent of total carbon released as CO 2 ) for fires burning in different ecosystems on a global basis. Estimates of total biomass consumed on a global basis range from 2 to 10 Pg (1 petagram = 10 15 g) per year. We apply emission factors for various air toxics (g of emission released per kg of fuel consumed) to the estimate of global biomass consumption of 6.4 Pg per year. The principal air toxics analyzed in this paper include: Total particulate matter, CO, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, acrolein, benzene, toluene, o-xylene, m, p-xylene, benzo[a]pyrene, and polycyclic organic material. The total emissions calculated for these materials on a yearly global basis are: 75, 362, 4.9, 1.5, 1.5, 2.1, 2.1, 0.3, 0.6, 0.001, 0.026, Tg (1 teragram = 10 12 g) per year, respectively. Biomass burning in the United States contributes less than 3% to the total global emissions

  7. Global estimation of CO emissions using three sets of satellite data for burned area

    Jain, Atul K.

    Using three sets of satellite data for burned areas together with the tree cover imagery and a biogeochemical component of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) the global emissions of CO and associated uncertainties are estimated for the year 2000. The available fuel load (AFL) is calculated using the ISAM biogeochemical model, which accounts for the aboveground and surface fuel removed by land clearing for croplands and pasturelands, as well as the influence on fuel load of various ecosystem processes (such as stomatal conductance, evapotranspiration, plant photosynthesis and respiration, litter production, and soil organic carbon decomposition) and important feedback mechanisms (such as climate and fertilization feedback mechanism). The ISAM estimated global total AFL in the year 2000 was about 687 Pg AFL. All forest ecosystems account for about 90% of the global total AFL. The estimated global CO emissions based on three global burned area satellite data sets (GLOBSCAR, GBA, and Global Fire Emissions Database version 2 (GFEDv2)) for the year 2000 ranges between 320 and 390 Tg CO. Emissions from open fires are highest in tropical Africa, primarily due to forest cutting and burning. The estimated overall uncertainty in global CO emission is about ±65%, with the highest uncertainty occurring in North Africa and Middle East region (±99%). The results of this study suggest that the uncertainties in the calculated emissions stem primarily from the area burned data.

  8. Methodology for inventorying greenhouse gas emissions from global cities

    Kennedy, Christopher; Steinberger, Julia; Gasson, Barrie; Hansen, Yvonne; Hillman, Timothy; Havranek, Miroslav; Pataki, Diane; Phdungsilp, Aumnad; Ramaswami, Anu; Mendez, Gara Villalba

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology and data used to determine greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions attributable to ten cities or city-regions: Los Angeles County, Denver City and County, Greater Toronto, New York City, Greater London, Geneva Canton, Greater Prague, Barcelona, Cape Town and Bangkok. Equations for determining emissions are developed for contributions from: electricity; heating and industrial fuels; ground transportation fuels; air and marine fuels; industrial processes; and waste. Gasoline consumption is estimated using three approaches: from local fuel sales; by scaling from regional fuel sales; and from counts of vehicle kilometres travelled. A simplified version of an intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) method for estimating the GHG emissions from landfill waste is applied. Three measures of overall emissions are suggested: (i) actual emissions within the boundary of the city; (ii) single process emissions (from a life-cycle perspective) associated with the city's metabolism; and (iii) life-cycle emissions associated with the city's metabolism. The results and analysis of the study will be published in a second paper.

  9. A joint modelling exercise designed to assess the respective impact of emission changes and meteorological variability on the observed air quality trends in major urban hotspots.

    Colette, Augustin; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Dangiola, Ariela; D'Isidoro, Massimo; Gauss, Michael; Granier, Claire; Hodnebrog, Øivind; Jakobs, Hermann; Kanakidou, Maria; Khokhar, Fahim; Law, Kathy; Maurizi, Alberto; Meleux, Frederik; Memmesheimer, Michael; Nyiri, Agnes; Rouil, Laurence; Stordal, Frode; Tampieri, Francesco

    2010-05-01

    With the growth of urban agglomerations, assessing the drivers of variability of air quality in and around the main anthropogenic emission hotspots has become a major societal concern as well as a scientific challenge. These drivers include emission changes and meteorological variability; both of them can be investigated by means of numerical modelling of trends over the past few years. A collaborative effort has been developed in the framework of the CityZen European project to address this question. Several chemistry and transport models (CTMs) are deployed in this activity: four regional models (BOLCHEM, CHIMERE, EMEP and EURAD) and three global models (CTM2, MOZART, and TM4). The period from 1998 to 2007 has been selected for the historic reconstruction. The focus for the present preliminary presentation is Europe. A consistent set of emissions is used by all partners (EMEP for the European domain and IPCC-AR5 beyond) while a variety of meteorological forcing is used to gain robustness in the ensemble spread amongst models. The results of this experiment will be investigated to address the following questions: - Is the envelope of models able to reproduce the observed trends of the key chemical constituents? - How the variability amongst models changes in time and space and what does it tell us about the processes driving the observed trends? - Did chemical regimes and aerosol formation processes changed in selected hotspots? Answering the above questions will contribute to fulfil the ultimate goal of the present study: distinguishing the respective contribution of meteorological variability and emissions changes on air quality trends in major anthropogenic emissions hotspots.

  10. Noiseonomics: the relationship between ambient noise levels in the sea and global economic trends.

    Frisk, George V

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, the topic of noise in the sea and its effects on marine mammals has attracted considerable attention from both the scientific community and the general public. Since marine mammals rely heavily on acoustics as a primary means of communicating, navigating, and foraging in the ocean, any change in their acoustic environment may have an impact on their behavior. Specifically, a growing body of literature suggests that low-frequency, ambient noise levels in the open ocean increased approximately 3.3 dB per decade during the period 1950-2007. Here we show that this increase can be attributed primarily to commercial shipping activity, which in turn, can be linked to global economic growth. As a corollary, we conclude that ambient noise levels can be directly related to global economic conditions. We provide experimental evidence supporting this theory and discuss its implications for predicting future noise levels based on global economic trends.

  11. Multi-Year On-Road Emission Factor Trends of Two Heavy-Duty California Fleets

    Haugen, M.; Bishop, G.

    2017-12-01

    an extensive data repository to quantify on-road vehicle emission trends on individual vehicles as well as categories of vehicles. Here, the 2017 campaign results will be discussed and compared to previous campaigns.

  12. Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Assessment of global-scale model performance for global and regional ozone distributions, variability, and trends

    P. J. Young

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR is to provide the research community with an up-to-date scientific assessment of tropospheric ozone, from the surface to the tropopause. While a suite of observations provides significant information on the spatial and temporal distribution of tropospheric ozone, observational gaps make it necessary to use global atmospheric chemistry models to synthesize our understanding of the processes and variables that control tropospheric ozone abundance and its variability. Models facilitate the interpretation of the observations and allow us to make projections of future tropospheric ozone and trace gas distributions for different anthropogenic or natural perturbations. This paper assesses the skill of current-generation global atmospheric chemistry models in simulating the observed present-day tropospheric ozone distribution, variability, and trends. Drawing upon the results of recent international multi-model intercomparisons and using a range of model evaluation techniques, we demonstrate that global chemistry models are broadly skillful in capturing the spatio-temporal variations of tropospheric ozone over the seasonal cycle, for extreme pollution episodes, and changes over interannual to decadal periods. However, models are consistently biased high in the northern hemisphere and biased low in the southern hemisphere, throughout the depth of the troposphere, and are unable to replicate particular metrics that define the longer term trends in tropospheric ozone as derived from some background sites. When the models compare unfavorably against observations, we discuss the potential causes of model biases and propose directions for future developments, including improved evaluations that may be able to better diagnose the root cause of the model-observation disparity. Overall, model results should be approached critically, including determining whether the model performance is acceptable for

  13. Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend

    Huang, Jianbin; Zhang, Xiangdong; Zhang, Qiyi; Lin, Yanluan; Hao, Mingju; Luo, Yong; Zhao, Zongci; Yao, Yao; Chen, Xin; Wang, Lei; Nie, Suping; Yin, Yizhou; Xu, Ying; Zhang, Jiansong

    2017-12-01

    The existence and magnitude of the recently suggested global warming hiatus, or slowdown, have been strongly debated1-3. Although various physical processes4-8 have been examined to elucidate this phenomenon, the accuracy and completeness of observational data that comprise global average surface air temperature (SAT) datasets is a concern9,10. In particular, these datasets lack either complete geographic coverage or in situ observations over the Arctic, owing to the sparse observational network in this area9. As a consequence, the contribution of Arctic warming to global SAT changes may have been underestimated, leading to an uncertainty in the hiatus debate. Here, we constructed a new Arctic SAT dataset using the most recently updated global SATs2 and a drifting buoys based Arctic SAT dataset11 through employing the `data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions' method12. Our estimate of global SAT rate of increase is around 0.112 °C per decade, instead of 0.05 °C per decade from IPCC AR51, for 1998-2012. Analysis of this dataset shows that the amplified Arctic warming over the past decade has significantly contributed to a continual global warming trend, rather than a hiatus or slowdown.

  14. Global trends in milk quality: implications for the irish dairy industry

    More SJ

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The quality of Irish agricultural product will become increasingly important with the ongoing liberalisation of international trade. This paper presents a review of the global and Irish dairy industries; considers the impact of milk quality on farm profitability, food processing and human health, examines global trends in quality; and explores several models that are successfully being used to tackle milk quality concerns. There is a growing global demand for dairy products, fuelled in part by growing consumer wealth in developing countries. Global dairy trade represents only 6.2% of global production and demand currently outstrips supply. Although the Irish dairy industry is small by global standards, approximately 85% of annual production is exported annually. It is also the world's largest producer of powdered infant formula. Milk quality has an impact on human health, milk processing and on-farm profitability. Somatic cell count (SCC is a key measure of milk quality, with a SCC not exceeding 400,000 cells/ml (the EU milk quality standard generally accepted as the international export standard. There have been ongoing improvements in milk quality among both established and emerging international suppliers. A number of countries have developed successful industry-led models to tackle milk quality concerns. Based on international experiences, it is likely that problems with effective translation of knowledge to practice, rather than incomplete knowledge per se, are the more important constraints to national progress towards improved milk quality.

  15. The effects of Norwegian gas export on the global CO2 emission

    1996-01-01

    This report analyses how a limitation of Norway's gas export might affect the global CO 2 emission. In principle, a reduction of this export can lead to decreased or increased CO 2 emission depending on changes in several conditions that individually have conflicting emission effects. What the total effect will be can only become clear after a thorough empirical analysis of the supply and demand structure. The model calculations presented in the report show that the global emission will probably increase if Norway reduces the gas export. A gas export reduction of 10 million tonne oil equivalents in 2015 will increase the global emission by 1.4 and 7.5 million tonne CO 2 depending on the assumption made for alternative gas supplies to the European market and for market conditions in the importing countries. 4 refs., 32 figs., 44 tabs

  16. Global Fire Emissions Database, Version 2.1

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set consists of 1 degree x 1 degree gridded monthly burned area, fuel loads, combustion completeness, and fire emissions of carbon (C), carbon...

  17. Global Anthropogenic Emissions of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases 1990-2020

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The data in these Appendices to the Global Anthropogenic Emissions of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases (1990-2020) report provide historical and projected estimates of...

  18. Global Fire Emissions Indicators, Country-Level Tabular Data: 1997-2015

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Fire Emissions Indicators, Country-Level Tabular Data: 1997-2015 contains country tabulations from 1997 to 2015 for the total area burned (hectares) and...

  19. Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production from SRES Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production from SRES Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios is an update to a major crop modeling study by the NASA Goddard...

  20. Diagnostics of the Solar Wind and Global Heliosphere with Lyman-α Emission Measurements

    Provornikova, E. P.; Izmodenov, V. V.; Laming, J. M.; Strachan, L.; Wood, B. E.; Katushkina, O. A.; Ko, Y.-K.; Tun Beltran, S.; Chakrabarti, S.

    2018-02-01

    We propose to develop an instrument measuring full sky intensity maps and spectra of interplanetary Lyman-α emission to reveal the global solar wind variability and the nature of the heliosphere and the local interstellar medium.

  1. Global trends in wildfire - perceptions and realities in a changing world

    Doerr, Stefan; Santin, Cristina

    2017-04-01

    Wildfire has been an important process affecting the Earth's surface and atmosphere for over 350 million years and human societies have coexisted with fire since their emergence. Many consider wildfire as an accelerating problem, with widely held perceptions both in the media and scientific papers of increasing fire occurrence, severity and resulting losses. Whilst fire and associated impacts have indeed increased in some regions, such parts of western North America, Canada and Russia, fire has been decreasing in other regions such as African savannas. Overall, global area burned appears to have changed little over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago. Regarding fire severity, limited data are available. For the western USA, they indicate little change overall, and also that area burned at high severity has overall declined compared to pre-European settlement. Direct fatalities from fire and economic losses also show no clear trends over the past three decades. Trends in indirect impacts, such as health problems from smoke or disruption to social functioning may indeed be on the rise, however, they remain insufficiently quantified to be thoroughly examined. Notwithstanding these general observations, the changes in global fire distribution are of concern due to, for example, their detrimental impacts on peat and soil carbon stores in boreal and some tropical regions, or air pollution levels in SE-Asia. These and other impacts are likely to accelerate in a future warmer climate. This presentation aims to contribute to reducing misconceptions in fire trends and to facilitating a more informed understanding of the realities of global fire.

  2. Revised methane emissions factors and spatially distributed annual carbon fluxes for global livestock.

    Wolf, Julie; Asrar, Ghassem R; West, Tristram O

    2017-09-29

    Livestock play an important role in carbon cycling through consumption of biomass and emissions of methane. Recent research suggests that existing bottom-up inventories of livestock methane emissions in the US, such as those made using 2006 IPCC Tier 1 livestock emissions factors, are too low. This may be due to outdated information used to develop these emissions factors. In this study, we update information for cattle and swine by region, based on reported recent changes in animal body mass, feed quality and quantity, milk productivity, and management of animals and manure. We then use this updated information to calculate new livestock methane emissions factors for enteric fermentation in cattle, and for manure management in cattle and swine. Using the new emissions factors, we estimate global livestock emissions of 119.1 ± 18.2 Tg methane in 2011; this quantity is 11% greater than that obtained using the IPCC 2006 emissions factors, encompassing an 8.4% increase in enteric fermentation methane, a 36.7% increase in manure management methane, and notable variability among regions and sources. For example, revised manure management methane emissions for 2011 in the US increased by 71.8%. For years through 2013, we present (a) annual livestock methane emissions, (b) complete annual livestock carbon budgets, including carbon dioxide emissions, and (c) spatial distributions of livestock methane and other carbon fluxes, downscaled to 0.05 × 0.05 degree resolution. Our revised bottom-up estimates of global livestock methane emissions are comparable to recently reported top-down global estimates for recent years, and account for a significant part of the increase in annual methane emissions since 2007. Our results suggest that livestock methane emissions, while not the dominant overall source of global methane emissions, may be a major contributor to the observed annual emissions increases over the 2000s to 2010s. Differences at regional and local scales may help

  3. Estimated HCFC-22 emissions for 1990-2050 in China and the increasing contribution to global emissions

    Li, Zhifang; Bie, Pengju; Wang, Ziyuan; Zhang, Zhaoyang; Jiang, Hanyu; Xu, Weiguang; Zhang, Jianbo; Hu, Jianxin

    2016-05-01

    Chlorodifluoromethane (CHClF2, HCFC-22) is a widely used refrigerant and foaming agent that is not only an ozone-depleting substance (ozone depletion potential (ODP), 0.04) but also a greenhouse gas (global warming potential (GWP), 1780). A comprehensive historical emission inventory for 1990-2014 was produced using a bottom-up method, and a projection through to 2050 was made for China. The results demonstrated that historical emissions increased sharply from 0.2 Gg/yr in 1990 to 127.2 Gg/yr in 2014. Room air-conditioners (RACs), industrial and commercial refrigeration (ICR), and extruded polystyrene (XPS) were three primary emission sources, and accounted for an average of 95.4% of the total emissions over the period studied. The percentage of global HCFC-22 emissions originating from China significantly increased from 0.1% in 1990 to 31.6% in 2012, with an average growth rate of 1.4% per year. Under the Montreal Protocol phasing-out (MPPO) scenario, future emissions were expected to reach a peak of 133.5 Gg/yr in 2016 and then continuously decline to 10.2 Gg/yr in 2050. The accumulative reduction for 2015-2050 would be 5533.8 Gg (equivalent to 221.4 CFC-11-eq Gg and 9850.1 CO2-eq Tg), which is approximately equivalent to the total CO2 emission for China in 2012 (9900 Tg) (Olivier et al., 2013), compared with the no Montreal Protocol scenario (NMP). Under the MPPO scenario, two cases were analyzed to explore the future emission ranges in China. A comparison between the two cases implied that the choice of emission reduction policy will have a considerable impact on HCFC-22 emissions.

  4. MGIMO-University in “Go To Think Tanks” 2015 Ranking: Global Trends, Local Responses

    Maxim V. Kharkevich

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the latest issue of Go to think tank ranking and MGIMO position in it. It also considers global trends related to changes in the environment and forms of activities of research centers, identified by the ranking. In particular, it notes the changes in the system of financing think tanks from the few large grants for an extended period of time to a small but numerous grants for short periods for specific projects. It also notes the increasing state pressure on think tanks from around the world. In addition, it points to increased competition on the market of ideas and scientific expertise. Research centers have to adapt to these changes. In view of these trends the experience of one of the research centers of MGIMO, the Center for Military-Political Studies is considered. Innovation activities of the Centre on a whole corresponds to global trends. The center is seeking to diversify its sources of funding and enhances the focus of research topics - long-term forecasting of the international military and political relations.

  5. Global trends and priorities for agriculture development in the beginning of the xxi century

    Pavel Vasil’evich Smekalov

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper pays attention to global issues related to the growth of population and food production: reduced growth rate of agricultural production, reduction of resource potential of agriculture and others. Critical factors and trends of structural changes in agriculture are identified. Results of comparative analysis of the development of farms in European countries and Russia are presented. Studies have shown that at the end of the last century there have been the following trends in the global agriculture: there has been a trend of farm consolidation in size, new controls and control of production are were introduced as well as more stringent quality standards of ecology were launched, which, in turn, require introduction of new technics and technologies; the processes of plants and animals development become more controllable and manageable. Conseptual foresights of pricing in the food market are given. Priority areas of agricultural policy aimed at creating conditions for sustainable rural development and accelerated growth in agricultural production by improving its competitiveness are identified

  6. Potential contribution of the Clean Coal Program to reducing global emissions of greenhouse gases

    Blasing, T.J.

    1992-01-01

    Environmental considerations of Clean Coal Program (CCP) initially focused on reducing emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) and nitrogen oxides (NO x ) to the atmosphere. However, it has also become apparent that some Clean Coal Technologies (CCTs) may contribute appreciably to reducing emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), thereby diminishing the rate of any global warming that may result from greenhouse effects. This is particularly true for CCTs involving replacement of a major portion of an existing facility and/or providing the option of using a different fuel form (the repowering CCTs). Because the subject of global-scale climate warming is receiving increased attention, the effect of CCTs on Co 2 emissions has become a topic of increasing interest. The Final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for the Clean Coal Technology Demonstration Program projected that with full implementation of those repowering CCTs that would be most effective at reducing CO 2 emissions (Pressurized Fluidized Bed and Coal Gasification Fuel Cell technologies), the national fossil-fuel Co 2 emissions by the year 2010 would be roughly 90% of the emissions that would occur with no implementation of any CCTs by the same date. It is the purpose of this paper to examine the global effect of such a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and to compare that effect with effects of other strategies for reducing global greenhouse gas emissions

  7. Contribution of Anthropogenic and Natural Emissions to Global CH4 Balances by Utilizing δ13C-CH4 Observations in CarbonTracker Data Assimilation System (CTDAS)

    Kangasaho, V. E.; Tsuruta, A.; Aalto, T.; Backman, L. B.; Houweling, S.; Krol, M. C.; Peters, W.; van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T.; Lienert, S.; Joos, F.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Michael, S.; White, J. W. C.

    2017-12-01

    The atmospheric burden of CH4 has more than doubled since preindustrial time. Evaluating the contribution from anthropogenic and natural emissions to the global methane budget is of great importance to better understand the significance of different sources at the global scale, and their contribution to changes in growth rate of atmospheric CH4 before and after 2006. In addition, observations of δ13C-CH4 suggest an increase in natural sources after 2006, which matches the observed increase and variation of CH4 abudance. Methane emission sources can be identified using δ13C-CH4, because different sources produce methane with process-specific isotopic signatures. This study focuses on inversion model based estimates of global anthropogenic and natural methane emission rates to evaluate the existing methane emission estimates with a new δ13C-CH4 inversion system. In situ measurements of atmospheric methane and δ13C-CH4 isotopic signature, provided by the NOAA Global Monitoring Division and the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, will be assimilated into the CTDAS-13C-CH4. The system uses the TM5 atmospheric transport model as an observation operator, constrained by ECMWF ERA Interim meteorological fields, and off-line TM5 chemistry fields to account for the atmospheric methane sink. LPX-Bern DYPTOP ecosystem model is used for prior natural methane emissions from wetlands, peatlands and mineral soils, GFED v4 for prior fire emissions and EDGAR v4.2 FT2010 inventory for prior anthropogenic emissions. The EDGAR antropogenic emissions are re-divided into enteric fermentation and manure management, landfills and waste water, rice, coal, oil and gas, and residential emissions, and the trend of total emissions is scaled to match optimized anthropogenic emissions from CTE-CH4. In addition to these categories, emissions from termites and oceans are included. Process specific δ13C-CH4 isotopic signatures are assigned to each emission source to estimate 13CH4 fraction

  8. Structural Uncertainty in Model-Simulated Trends of Global Gross Primary Production

    Zaichun Zhu

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Projected changes in the frequency and severity of droughts as a result of increase in greenhouse gases have a significant impact on the role of vegetation in regulating the global carbon cycle. Drought effect on vegetation Gross Primary Production (GPP is usually modeled as a function of Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD and/or soil moisture. Climate projections suggest a strong likelihood of increasing trend in VPD, while regional changes in precipitation are less certain. This difference in projections between VPD and precipitation can cause considerable discrepancies in the predictions of vegetation behavior depending on how ecosystem models represent the drought effect. In this study, we scrutinized the model responses to drought using the 30-year record of Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS 3g Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI dataset. A diagnostic ecosystem model, Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS, was used to estimate global GPP from 1982 to 2009 under nine different experimental simulations. The control run of global GPP increased until 2000, but stayed constant after 2000. Among the simulations with single climate constraint (temperature, VPD, rainfall and solar radiation, only the VPD-driven simulation showed a decrease in 2000s, while the other scenarios simulated an increase in GPP. The diverging responses in 2000s can be attributed to the difference in the representation of the impact of water stress on vegetation in models, i.e., using VPD and/or precipitation. Spatial map of trend in simulated GPP using GIMMS 3g data is consistent with the GPP driven by soil moisture than the GPP driven by VPD, confirming the need for a soil moisture constraint in modeling global GPP.

  9. Trends in the Global Small Satellite Ecosystem: Implications for Science Missions

    Behrens, J.; Lal, B.

    2017-12-01

    Activity in the small satellite industry has increased in the recent years. New actors and nations have joined the evolving market globally in both the private and public sector. Progress in the smallsat sector has been driven, in part, by growing capabilities and falling costs of smallsats. Advancements include the miniaturization of technology for the small satellite platform, increased data processing capabilities, the ubiquitous presence of GPS enabling location and attitude determination, improvements in ground system costs and signal processing capabilities, and the deployment of inexpensive COTS parts. The emerging trends in the state of the art for smallsat technology, paired with planned smallsat constellation missions by both private and public actors, open the opportunity for new earth and remote sensing scientific endeavors. This presentation will characterize the drivers influencing the development of smallsat technology and the industry more generally. An overview will be provided for trends in the state of the art of smallsat technology, and secondary trends that influence the smallsat sector including infrastructure, demand, the satellite launch market, and the policy environment. These trends are mapped onto current and projected Earth observation needs, as identified by academic and governmental communities, to identify those that could be fulfilled by smallsats in the near and long term. A set of notional science missions that could be enabled, based on the various drivers identified, will be presented for both the near (3 years) and farther term (10 years).

  10. The Status Quo and Developing Trend Analysis of Global Carbon Finance

    Liu Qian; Wang Yao

    2011-01-01

    This paper gives a systematic view of the new trends of global carbon finance innovation under the challenge of global climate change and in the process of transition to achieve economic growth from "high carbon" to 'low carbon', covering the following aspects: the structure, status quo and developing trend of global carbon market. The paper discusses the innovation in financial organization and service systems and governments' overall guidance and policy support, and draws the conclusion that the world is undergoing massive changes with governments actively responding to carbon finance to embrace the tremendous opportunities for clean energy and climate change in financial industry. To seize the opportunity, a complete and overall carbon finance system of China should be put in the top of the agenda. Given the current tasks of energy conservation and pollution reduction and the growing demand for capital input, China needs to construct an clear of policy guidance, a diversified financia service system, and a multi-approach carbon finance system to intensify and widen the participation of financial industry, to expand financing channels for sustainable economy and spread risks, and finally, work out an inexpensive solution to the realization of China's low carbon target.

  11. The Effects of Chinese Dietary Trends on Global and Local Land Use

    Anthony, J.

    2015-12-01

    Global land scarcity is a major concern, which, due to climate change, lifestyle changes, and population growth, will only continue to worsen. It is a major driver of global environmental degradation, famine, and sociopolitical conflicts. With some 33% of the world's dwindling supply of arable land dedicated to grossly inefficient animal husbandry or animal feed production, it is easy to see that dietary consumption patterns play an important role. Although population growth in East Asia has stagnated, changing dietary trends mean that China is now the world's largest consumers of meat, consuming 25% of global meat production, despite having less than half of the American per capita equivalent. This paper assesses changing dietary consumption patterns of Taiwan, whose current per capita meat consumption surpasses all other East Asian countries, over the past 30 years and considers the relationship this has had on overall land consumption. We then consider dietary trends of Mainland China, which shares a common cultural heritage and whose current Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is similar to Taiwanese PPP levels in 1985. Finally we retrospectively project three alternative Taiwanese consumption patterns over the past 30 years, consider the effect of each scenario on per capita land consumption, and finally consider these results in terms of culturally analogues Mainland China.

  12. Global epidemiological trends and variations in the burden of gallbladder cancer.

    Are, Chandrakanth; Ahmad, Humera; Ravipati, Advaitaa; Croo, Darren; Clarey, Dillon; Smith, Lynette; Price, Ray R; Butte, Jean M; Gupta, Sameer; Chaturvedi, Arun; Chowdhury, Sanjib

    2017-04-01

    The aim of this study is to describe the trends and variations in the global burden of gallbladder cancer (GBC) with an emphasis on geographic variations and female gender. Data (2012-2030) relating to GBC was extracted from GLOBOCAN 2012 database and analyzed. The results of our study document a rising global burden of GBC with geographic and gender variations. The highest burden was noted in the WPRO region (based on WHO regions), Asia (based on continents) and India, Chile, and China (based on countries). The less developed regions of the world account for the majority of the global burden of GBC. The geographic variations are also present within individual countries such as in India and Chile. Females are afflicted at a much higher rate with GBC and this predilection is exaggerated in countries with higher incidence such as India and Chile. In females, people of certain ethnic groups and lower socio-economic standing are at a higher risk. Our study demonstrates a rising global burden of GBC with some specific data on geographic and gender-based variations which can be used to develop strategies at the global as well as the high-risk individual country level. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. Primary sources of selected POPs: regional and global scale emission inventories

    Breivik, Knut; Alcock, Ruth; Li Yifan; Bailey, Robert E.; Fiedler, Heidelore; Pacyna, Jozef M

    2004-03-01

    During the last decade, a number of studies have been devoted to the sources and emissions of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) at regional and global scales. While significant improvements in knowledge have been achieved for some pesticides, the quantitative understanding of the emission processes and emission patterns for 'non-pesticide' POPs are still considered limited. The key issues remaining for the non-pesticide POPs are in part determined by their general source classification. For industrial chemicals, such as the polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), there is considerable uncertainty with respect to the relative importance of atmospheric emissions from various source categories. For PCBs, temperature is discussed as a potential key factor influencing atmospheric emission levels and patterns. When it comes to the unintentional by-products of combustion and industrial processes (PCDD/Fs), there is still a large uncertainty with respect to the relative contribution of emissions from unregulated sources such as backyard barrel burning that requires further consideration and characterisation. For hexachlorobenzene (HCB), the relative importance of primary and secondary atmospheric emissions in controlling current atmospheric concentrations remains one of the key uncertainties. While these and other issues may remain unresolved, knowledge concerning the emissions of POPs is a prerequisite for any attempt to understand and predict the distribution and fate of these chemicals on a regional and global scale as well as to efficiently minimise future environmental burdens. - Knowledge of primary emissions is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting POPs on a regional/global scale.

  14. Primary sources of selected POPs: regional and global scale emission inventories

    Breivik, Knut; Alcock, Ruth; Li Yifan; Bailey, Robert E.; Fiedler, Heidelore; Pacyna, Jozef M.

    2004-01-01

    During the last decade, a number of studies have been devoted to the sources and emissions of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) at regional and global scales. While significant improvements in knowledge have been achieved for some pesticides, the quantitative understanding of the emission processes and emission patterns for 'non-pesticide' POPs are still considered limited. The key issues remaining for the non-pesticide POPs are in part determined by their general source classification. For industrial chemicals, such as the polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), there is considerable uncertainty with respect to the relative importance of atmospheric emissions from various source categories. For PCBs, temperature is discussed as a potential key factor influencing atmospheric emission levels and patterns. When it comes to the unintentional by-products of combustion and industrial processes (PCDD/Fs), there is still a large uncertainty with respect to the relative contribution of emissions from unregulated sources such as backyard barrel burning that requires further consideration and characterisation. For hexachlorobenzene (HCB), the relative importance of primary and secondary atmospheric emissions in controlling current atmospheric concentrations remains one of the key uncertainties. While these and other issues may remain unresolved, knowledge concerning the emissions of POPs is a prerequisite for any attempt to understand and predict the distribution and fate of these chemicals on a regional and global scale as well as to efficiently minimise future environmental burdens. - Knowledge of primary emissions is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting POPs on a regional/global scale

  15. Options for utilizing the CDM for global emission reductions

    Butzengeiger-Geyer, Sonja; Castro, Paula; Harthan, Ralph O.; Hayashi, Daisuke; Healy, Sean; Maribu, Karl Magnus; Michaelowa, Axel; Okubo, Yuri; Schneider, Lambert; Storroe, Ingunn [Zuerich Univ. (Switzerland); Oeko-Institut e.V., Berlin (Germany); Perspectives GmbH, Hamburg (Germany); Point Carbon A/S, Oslo (Norway)

    2010-11-15

    The study describes and discusses in detail how four CDM reform alternatives, namely discounting of emission reductions, ambitious baselines, purchase and cancellation of CERs and reinvestment of CER levies, could be integrated in a Post-2012 climate regime. The study assesses these alternatives, according to their impacts on GHG emission reductions, contribution to sustainable development, cost-efficiency, technical feasibility, incentives and distributional effects as well as negotiability. The study shows that the introduction of discounting and ambitious baselines is technically feasible but politically a massive challenge. With the help of an economic model the study shows that the introduction of reform alternatives increases the amount of emission reductions but in comparison to the current CDM the impact is rather limited. But a CDM reform can in any case increase the credibility and improve the environmental integrity of the mechanism. (orig.)

  16. Key Trends in the Development of Foreign Trade of France in the Global Competitive Environment

    Zvirgzde Kateryna I.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at analyzing the nature and contemporary trends of foreign trade activity of France. In the process of evolutionary development of the economy of France in content, structure and directions of its foreign trade strategies occurred permanent modifications and transformations, resulting from the need to maintain optimal proportions between material, financial and human resources, production and consumption, commodity supply and purchasing power, as well as receipts and payments in the settlements with other countries. The article is concerned with an integrated analysis of progressive structural reforms in the economic system of France in the last decade, which led to fundamental changes in its foreign trade operations both in terms of monetary magnitude of export-import transactions and their product-species, geographical, institutional and regulatory structures. The nature, key indicators, trends and issues in the foreign trade strategy of France in the face of global volatility as well as ways for its improvement have been researched.

  17. Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections

    Gourdji, Sharon M; Sibley, Adam M; Lobell, David B

    2013-01-01

    Long-term warming trends across the globe have shifted the distribution of temperature variability, such that what was once classified as extreme heat relative to local mean conditions has become more common. This is also true for agricultural regions, where exposure to extreme heat, particularly during key growth phases such as the reproductive period, can severely damage crop production in ways that are not captured by most crop models. Here, we analyze exposure of crops to physiologically critical temperatures in the reproductive stage (T crit ), across the global harvested areas of maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Trends for the 1980–2011 period show a relatively weak correspondence (r = 0.19) between mean growing season temperature and T crit exposure trends, emphasizing the importance of separate analyses for T crit . Increasing T crit exposure in the past few decades is apparent for wheat in Central and South Asia and South America, and for maize in many diverse locations across the globe. Maize had the highest percentage (15%) of global harvested area exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in the 2000s, although this value is somewhat sensitive to the exact temperature used for the threshold. While there was relatively little sustained exposure to reproductive days over T crit for the other crops in the past few decades, all show increases with future warming. Using projections from climate models we estimate that by the 2030s, 31, 16, and 11% respectively of maize, rice, and wheat global harvested area will be exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in a typical year, with soybean much less affected. Both maize and rice exhibit non-linear increases with time, with total area exposed for rice projected to grow from 8% in the 2000s to 27% by the 2050s, and maize from 15 to 44% over the same period. While faster development should lead to earlier flowering, which would reduce reproductive extreme heat exposure for wheat on a

  18. Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection

    Rogelj, Joeri; Schaeffer, M.; Meinshausen, M.; Knutti, R.

    2015-01-01

    Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO2). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO2 emissions at some point. Policymakers have now incorporated this

  19. Greenhouse gas emissions and global warming potential of traditional and diversified tropical rice rotation systems.

    Weller, Sebastian; Janz, Baldur; Jörg, Lena; Kraus, David; Racela, Heathcliff S U; Wassmann, Reiner; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Kiese, Ralf

    2016-01-01

    Global rice agriculture will be increasingly challenged by water scarcity, while at the same time changes in demand (e.g. changes in diets or increasing demand for biofuels) will feed back on agricultural practices. These factors are changing traditional cropping patterns from double-rice cropping to the introduction of upland crops in the dry season. For a comprehensive assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) balances, we measured methane (CH4 )/nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions and agronomic parameters over 2.5 years in double-rice cropping (R-R) and paddy rice rotations diversified with either maize (R-M) or aerobic rice (R-A) in upland cultivation. Introduction of upland crops in the dry season reduced irrigation water use and CH4 emissions by 66-81% and 95-99%, respectively. Moreover, for practices including upland crops, CH4 emissions in the subsequent wet season with paddy rice were reduced by 54-60%. Although annual N2 O emissions increased two- to threefold in the diversified systems, the strong reduction in CH4 led to a significantly lower (P < 0.05) annual GWP (CH4  + N2 O) as compared to the traditional double-rice cropping system. Measurements of soil organic carbon (SOC) contents before and 3 years after the introduction of upland crop rotations indicated a SOC loss for the R-M system, while for the other systems SOC stocks were unaffected. This trend for R-M systems needs to be followed as it has significant consequences not only for the GWP balance but also with regard to soil fertility. Economic assessment showed a similar gross profit span for R-M and R-R, while gross profits for R-A were reduced as a consequence of lower productivity. Nevertheless, regarding a future increase in water scarcity, it can be expected that mixed lowland-upland systems will expand in SE Asia as water requirements were cut by more than half in both rotation systems with upland crops. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply.

    Jung, Martin; Reichstein, Markus; Ciais, Philippe; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Sheffield, Justin; Goulden, Michael L; Bonan, Gordon; Cescatti, Alessandro; Chen, Jiquan; de Jeu, Richard; Dolman, A Johannes; Eugster, Werner; Gerten, Dieter; Gianelle, Damiano; Gobron, Nadine; Heinke, Jens; Kimball, John; Law, Beverly E; Montagnani, Leonardo; Mu, Qiaozhen; Mueller, Brigitte; Oleson, Keith; Papale, Dario; Richardson, Andrew D; Roupsard, Olivier; Running, Steve; Tomelleri, Enrico; Viovy, Nicolas; Weber, Ulrich; Williams, Christopher; Wood, Eric; Zaehle, Sönke; Zhang, Ke

    2010-10-21

    More than half of the solar energy absorbed by land surfaces is currently used to evaporate water. Climate change is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle and to alter evapotranspiration, with implications for ecosystem services and feedback to regional and global climate. Evapotranspiration changes may already be under way, but direct observational constraints are lacking at the global scale. Until such evidence is available, changes in the water cycle on land−a key diagnostic criterion of the effects of climate change and variability−remain uncertain. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of global land evapotranspiration from 1982 to 2008, compiled using a global monitoring network, meteorological and remote-sensing observations, and a machine-learning algorithm. In addition, we have assessed evapotranspiration variations over the same time period using an ensemble of process-based land-surface models. Our results suggest that global annual evapotranspiration increased on average by 7.1 ± 1.0 millimetres per year per decade from 1982 to 1997. After that, coincident with the last major El Niño event in 1998, the global evapotranspiration increase seems to have ceased until 2008. This change was driven primarily by moisture limitation in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly Africa and Australia. In these regions, microwave satellite observations indicate that soil moisture decreased from 1998 to 2008. Hence, increasing soil-moisture limitations on evapotranspiration largely explain the recent decline of the global land-evapotranspiration trend. Whether the changing behaviour of evapotranspiration is representative of natural climate variability or reflects a more permanent reorganization of the land water cycle is a key question for earth system science.

  1. Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall.

    Grandey, B S; Wang, C

    2015-08-21

    Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate.

  2. Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution : an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015

    Cohen, Aaron J; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Anderson, H Ross; Frostad, Joseph; Estep, Kara; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Brunekreef, Bert|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/067548180; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Feigin, Valery; Freedman, Greg; Hubbell, Bryan; Jobling, Amelia; Kan, Haidong; Knibbs, Luke; Liu, Yang|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/411298119; Martin, Randall; Morawska, Lidia; Pope, C Arden; Shin, Hwashin; Straif, Kurt; Shaddick, Gavin; Thomas, Matthew; van Dingenen, Rita; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J L; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H

    BACKGROUND: Exposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country

  3. Proceedings of the Emissions trading conference : effective strategies for successful emissions trading in a global market

    2001-01-01

    There is growing interest everywhere in the topic of emissions trading in order to meet the commitments made under the Kyoto Protocol. During this conference, most aspects of emissions trading were discussed, ranging from the need to establish credible emission reduction estimates to the means of achieving those goals, to the trading activities of Ontario Power Generation in the field of emissions trading both at the domestic and the international level. There were presentations that focussed on greenhouse gas policies, markets and strategic plays, and the preparation for the regulation of greenhouse gas. An emissions trading regime for Canada was examined by one of the presenters. This conference provided a useful venue for all stakeholders to discuss various strategies and ideas related to emissions trading. Speakers represented governments, the private sector and utilities, as well as the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy. tabs., figs

  4. Evaluation of the Committed Carbon Emissions and Global Warming due to the Permafrost Carbon Feedback

    Elshorbany, Y. F.; Schaefer, K. M.; Jafarov, E. E.; Yumashev, D.; Hope, C.

    2017-12-01

    We quantify the increase in carbon emissions and temperature due to Permafrost Carbon feedback (PCF), defined as the amplification of anthropogenic warming due to carbon emissions from thawing permafrost (i.e., of near-surface layers to 3 m depth). We simulate the Committed PCF emissions, the cumulative total emissions from thawing permafrost by 2300 for a given global temperature increase by 2100, and investigate the resulting global warming using the Simple Biosphere/Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach SiBCASA model. We estimate the committed PCF emissions and warming for the Fifth Assessment Report, Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 using two ensembles of five projections. For the 2 °C warming target of the global climate change treaty, committed PCF emissions increase to 24 Gt C by 2100 and 76 Gt C by 2300 and the committed PCF warming is 0.23 °C by 2300. Our calculations show that as the global temperature increase by 2100 approaches 5.8 °C, the entire stock of frozen carbon thaws out, resulting in maximum committed PCF emissions of 560 Gt C by 2300.

  5. Research report on the trend of preventive measures against global warming by substituting CFCs; Daitai freon no chiku ondanka taisaku doko ni kansuru chosa hokokusho

    NONE

    1997-03-01

    This paper reports the research results on the present state and future trend of protective measures for the ozone layer, and the trend of preventive measures against global warming by substituting CFCs such as HFC, through international conferences, meetings and lecture meetings, and literature survey. In the 8th meeting of the parties to the Montreal Protocol, it was presented that refrigerator producers in Thailand phased out CFCs from their products earlier than the schedule in cooperation with Japan. The final draft including the approval of essential use from 1997 to 2002 was reviewed, and reported to the technology/economy assessment panel. Reduction of ozone depleting substances was guided in Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines. The latest trend of substituting technologies of HCFC was surveyed, and the control trend of F-containing greenhouse effect gas emission was also surveyed through the conference of the parties of climate change in fiscal 1996. Based on the IPCC report in 1995, the emission amount of greenhouse gases of nearly 10% in contribution such as CO2, methane and fluorocarbon was arranged. R and D on destruction of CFCs was also surveyed. 35 refs., 54 figs., 32 tabs.

  6.  Project Management as a Global Trend for Organization Work

    Kampf, Constance

    in multination and global companies, understanding the power of visual rhetoric, genre and writing processes in the context of project management documentation can be an advantage for technical communicators.  In addition, project management tools and online documentation spaces are objects which cross...... Project Management as a Global Trend for Organization Work: Implications for Technical Communication Project Management tools and processes offer a visual approach to producing knowledge about a project in order to complete it.  As project management practices are used with increasing frequency......-cultural teams use to function.  This presentation will explore the potential of Project Management to be tightly integrated in Technical Communication curricula through a communications approach to project management.  Questions for discussion include: How tightly is project management integrated into different...

  7. Cancers of the Brain and CNS: Global Patterns and Trends in Incidence.

    Mortazavi, S M J; Mortazavi, S A R; Paknahad, M

    2018-03-01

    Miranda-Filho et al. in their recently published paper entitled "Cancers of the brain and CNS: global patterns and trends in incidence" provided a global status report of the geographic and temporal variations in the incidence of brain and CNS cancers in different countries across continents worldwide. While the authors confirm the role of genetic risk factors and ionizing radiation exposures, they claimed that no firm conclusion could be drawn about the role of exposure to non-ionizing radiation. The paper authored by Miranda-Filho et al. not only addresses a challenging issue, it can be considered as a good contribution in the field of brain and CNS cancers. However, our correspondence addresses a basic shortcoming of this paper about the role of electromagnetic fields and cancers and provides evidence showing that exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMFs), at least at high levels and long durations, can increases the risk of cancer.

  8. Global warming and its implication to emission reduction strategies for residential buildings

    Wang, Xiaoming; Chen, Dong; Ren, Zhengen [CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), P.O. Box 56, Graham Road, Highett, Victoria 3190 (Australia)

    2011-04-15

    Carbon emission reduction schemes by improving residential building energy performance are often developed and assessed upon the assumption of current or stationary climates. This study investigated the heating and cooling (H-C) energy requirements and corresponding carbon emissions of residential houses in different climatic conditions in relation to global warming. This included assessing and quantifying the efficacy of emission reduction schemes based on emission reduction capacity (ERC). ERC represents the percentage of projected carbon emission reduction under changing climate in a specific year compared to the expected reduction by a scheme at current or stationary climates. It is shown that in a heating-dominated region with a cold climate or temperate climate with cold winter, ERC is projected to increase (or the projected emission reduction is higher than the expected reduction under the emission reduction scheme) in the presence of global warming. In contrast, in a cooling-dominated region with a hot dry or hot humid climate or an H-C balanced temperate climate, ERC is projected to decline. This implies that emission reductions will be lower than those initially targeted by the emission reduction scheme without consideration of global warming. Additionally, to reflect the changing carbon emission over years due to climate change, the average emission reduction capacity (AERC) was also proposed for the assessment of reduction schemes. It was concluded that the design and assessment of carbon emission reduction schemes for residential buildings need to move beyond its assumptions of a current or stationary climate to take into account climate change impacts. (author)

  9. Isoprene emission response to drought and the impact on global atmospheric chemistry

    Jiang, Xiaoyan; Guenther, Alex; Potosnak, Mark; Geron, Chris; Seco, Roger; Karl, Thomas; Kim, Saewung; Gu, Lianhong; Pallardy, Stephen

    2018-06-01

    Biogenic isoprene emissions play a very important role in atmospheric chemistry. These emissions are strongly dependent on various environmental conditions, such as temperature, solar radiation, plant water stress, ambient ozone and CO2 concentrations, and soil moisture. Current biogenic emission models (i.e., Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature, MEGAN) can simulate emission responses to some of the major driving variables, such as short-term variations in temperature and solar radiation, but the other factors are either missing or poorly represented. In this paper, we propose a new modelling approach that considers the physiological effects of drought stress on plant photosynthesis and isoprene emissions for use in the MEGAN3 biogenic emission model. We test the MEGAN3 approach by integrating the algorithm into the existing MEGAN2.1 biogenic emission model framework embedded into the global Community Land Model of the Community Earth System Model (CLM4.5/CESM1.2). Single-point simulations are compared against available field measurements at the Missouri Ozarks AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) field site. The modelling results show that the MEGAN3 approach of using of a photosynthesis parameter (Vcmax) and soil wetness factor (βt) to determine the drought activity factor leads to better simulated isoprene emissions in non-drought and drought periods. The global simulation with the MEGAN3 approach predicts a 17% reduction in global annual isoprene emissions, in comparison to the value predicted using the default CLM4.5/MEGAN2.1 without any drought effect. This reduction leads to changes in surface ozone and oxidants in the areas where the reduction of isoprene emissions is observed. Based on the results presented in this study, we conclude that it is important to simulate the drought-induced response of biogenic isoprene emission accurately in the coupled Earth System model.

  10. A mechanism for land-ocean contrasts in global monsoon trends in a warming climate

    Fasullo, J. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, CAS/NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2012-09-15

    A central paradox of the global monsoon record involves reported decreases in rainfall over land during an era in which the global hydrologic cycle is both expected and observed to intensify. It is within this context that this work develops a physical basis for both interpreting the observed record and anticipating changes in the monsoons in a warming climate while bolstering the concept of the global monsoon in the context of shared feedbacks. The global-land monsoon record across multiple reanalyses is first assessed. Trends that in other studies have been taken as real are shown to likely be spurious as a result of changes in the assimilated data streams both prior to and during the satellite era. Nonetheless, based on satellite estimates, robust increases in monsoon rainfall over ocean do exist and a physical basis for this land-ocean contrast remains lacking. To address the contrast's causes, simulated trends are therefore assessed. While projections of total rainfall are inconsistent across models, the robust land-ocean contrast identified in observations is confirmed. A feedback mechanism is proposed rooted in the facts that land areas warm disproportionately relative to ocean, and onshore flow is the chief source of monsoonal moisture. Reductions in lower tropospheric relative humidity over land domains are therefore inevitable and these have direct consequences for the monsoonal convective environment including an increase in the lifting condensation level and a shift in the distribution of convection generally towards less frequent and potentially more intense events. The mechanism is interpreted as an important modulating influence on the ''rich-get-richer'' mechanism. Caveats for regional monsoons exist and are discussed. (orig.)

  11. Embodiment Analysis for Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Chinese Economy Based on Global Thermodynamic Potentials

    Lijie Wang

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the Global Thermodynamic Potential (GTP indicator to perform a unified assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, and to systematically reveal the emission embodiment in the production, consumption, and international trade of the Chinese economy in 2007 as the most recent year available with input-output table and updated inventory data. The results show that the estimated total direct GHG emissions by the Chinese economy in 2007 amount to 10,657.5 Mt CO2-eq by the GTPs with 40.6% from CH4 emissions in magnitude of the same importance as CO2 emissions. The five sectors of Electric Power/Steam and Hot Water Production and Supply, Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous and Nonferrous Metals, Nonmetal Mineral Products, Agriculture, and Coal Mining and Dressing, are responsible for 83.3% of the total GHG emissions with different emission structures. The demands of coal and coal-electricity determine the structure of emission embodiment to an essential extent. The Construction sector holds the top GHG emissions embodied in both domestic production and domestic consumption. The GHG emission embodied in gross capital formation is more than those in other components of final demand characterized by extensive investment and limited household consumption. China is a net exporter of embodied GHG emissions, with a remarkable share of direct emission induced by international trade, such as textile products, industrial raw materials, and primary machinery and equipment products exports. The fractions of CH4 in the component of embodied GHG emissions in the final demand are much greater than those fractions calculated by the Global Warming Potentials, which highlight the importance of CH4 emissions for the case of China and indicate the essential effect of CH4 emissions on global climate change. To understand the full context to achieve GHG emission mitigation, this study provides a new insight to address China’s GHG emissions status and

  12. The global diffusion of organ transplantation: trends, drivers and policy implications.

    White, Sarah L; Hirth, Richard; Mahíllo, Beatriz; Domínguez-Gil, Beatriz; Delmonico, Francis L; Noel, Luc; Chapman, Jeremy; Matesanz, Rafael; Carmona, Mar; Alvarez, Marina; Núñez, Jose R; Leichtman, Alan

    2014-11-01

    Rising incomes, the spread of personal insurance, lifestyle factors adding to the burden of illness, ageing populations, globalization and skills transfer within the medical community have increased worldwide demand for organ transplantation. The Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation, which was built in response to World Health Assembly resolution WHA57.18, has conducted ongoing documentation of global transplantation activities since 2007. In this paper, we use the Global Observatory's data to describe the current distribution of - and trends in - transplantation activities and to evaluate the role of health systems factors and macroeconomics in the diffusion of transplantation technology. We then consider the implications of our results for health policies relating to organ donation and transplantation. Of the World Health Organization's Member States, most now engage in organ transplantation and more than a third performed deceased donor transplantation in 2011. In general, the Member States that engage in organ transplantation have greater access to physician services and greater total health spending per capita than the Member States where organ transplantation is not performed. The provision of deceased donor transplantation was closely associated with high levels of gross national income per capita. There are several ways in which governments can support the ethical development of organ donation and transplantation programmes. Specifically, they can ensure that appropriate legislation, regulation and oversight are in place, and monitor donation and transplantation activities, practices and outcomes. Moreover, they can allocate resources towards the training of specialist physicians, surgeons and transplant coordinators, and implement a professional donor-procurement network.

  13. Design Trends in Gold Jewellery Making in Ghana and Global Cultural Influence.

    Peggy Ama Fening

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Although Ghana is the second largest producer of gold in Africa, its jewellery industry accounts for very little percentage of the world production total. This observation is partly attributed to the extent to which the Ghanaian jewellery products have been influenced by global culture. The objective of this paper was therefore to investigate the influence of global culture on gold jewellery designs. Data used in this study were collected mainly through direct observations at goldsmiths’ workshops and showrooms, jewellery retail shops, during festivals and durbars, and visits to chiefs and traditional rulers’ homes. Close and open ended questionnaires and personal interviews were also used to solicit information from 400 respondents comprising; jewellers/Goldsmith, Chiefs and traditional rulers, jewellery traders and the general public. The study showed that a new trend of jewellery design has evolved. There are new innovations in the production of old aphorisms and symbols that has been influenced by global culture. This is reflected in the usage of brand names and their logos as well as the initials of customers’ names in making jewellery. The craftsmen were of the view that technological advancement and the use of modern equipment, as well as global fashion have contributed immensely to this observation. On the other hand the chiefs and traditional rulers were of the view that the impact of globalisation if not checked will lead to the erosion of the rich cultural designs of the Ghanaian people.

  14. Food, Paper, Wood, or Energy? Global Trends and Future Swedish Forest Use

    Erik Westholm

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a futures study of international forest trends. The study, produced as part of the Swedish Future Forest program, focuses on global changes of importance for future Swedish forest use. It is based on previous international research, policy documents, and 24 interviews with selected key experts and/or actors related to the forest sector, and its findings will provide a basis for future research priorities. The forest sector, here defined as the economic, social, and cultural contributions to life and human welfare derived from forest and forest-based activities, faces major change. Four areas stand out as particularly important: changing energy systems, emerging international climate policies, changing governance systems, and shifting global land use systems. We argue that global developments are, and will be, important for future Swedish forest use. The forest sector is in transition and forest-, energy, climate- and global land use issues are likely to become increasingly intertwined. Therefore, the “forest sector” must be disembedded and approached as an open system in interplay with other systems.

  15. EU Action against Climate Change. EU emissions trading. An open scheme promoting global innovation

    2005-01-01

    The European Union is committed to global efforts to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from human activities that threaten to cause serious disruption to the world's climate. Building on the innovative mechanisms set up under the Kyoto Protocol to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) - joint implementation, the clean development mechanism and international emissions trading - the EU has developed the largest company-level scheme for trading in emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), making it the world leader in this emerging market. The emissions trading scheme started in the 25 EU Member States on 1 January 2005

  16. Fractionation and current time trends of PCB congeners: evolvement of distributions 1950–2010 studied using a global atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

    G. Lammel

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available PCBs are ubiquitous environmental pollutants expected to decline in abiotic environmental media in response to decreasing primary emissions since the 1970s. A coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with embedded dynamic sub-models for atmospheric aerosols and the marine biogeochemistry and air-surface exchange processes with soils, vegetation and the cryosphere is used to study the transport and fate of four PCB congeners covering a range of 3–7 chlorine atoms.

    The change of the geographic distribution of the PCB mixture reflects the sources and sinks' evolvement over time. Globally, secondary emissions (re-volatilisation from surfaces are on the long term increasingly gaining importance over primary emissions. Secondary emissions are most important for the congeners with 5–6 chlorine atoms. Correspondingly, the levels of these congeners are predicted to decrease slowest. Changes in congener mixture composition (fractionation are characterized both geographically and temporally. In high latitudes enrichment of the lighter, less persistent congeners and more delayed decreasing levels in response to decreasing emissions are found. The delivery of the contaminants to high latitudes is predicted to be more efficient than previously suggested. The results suggest furthermore that the effectiveness of emission control measures may significantly vary among substances. The trends of decline of organic contaminant levels in the abiotic environmental media do not only vary with latitude (slow in high latitudes, but do also show longitudinal gradients.

  17. Global burned area and biomass burning emissions from small fires

    Randerson, J.T; Chen, Y.; van der Werf, G.R.; Rogers, B.M.; Morton, D.C.

    2012-01-01

    In several biomes, including croplands, wooded savannas, and tropical forests, many small fires occur each year that are well below the detection limit of the current generation of global burned area products derived from moderate resolution surface reflectance imagery. Although these fires often

  18. Nuclear energy development in the 21st century: Global scenarios and regional trends

    2010-01-01

    The International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) was launched in 2000, on the basis of a resolution of the IAEA General Conference (GC(44)/RES/21). INPRO helps ensure that sustainable nuclear energy is available in the twenty-first century and seeks to bring together all interested Member States - both technology holders and technology users - to consider joint actions to achieve desired innovations. As of July 2010, 30 countries and the European Commission are members of INPRO. Programme Area B of INPRO, Global Vision - Scenarios and Pathways to Sustainable Nuclear Power Development, is aimed at providing a better understanding of the role of nuclear energy in the context of long term sustainable development. Its objective is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios on the basis of a scientific-technical pathway analysis that lead to a global vision on sustainable nuclear energy development in the twenty-first century, and to support Member States in working towards that vision. This report presents the results of a study undertaken under Programme Area B in INPRO on Nuclear Energy Development in the Twenty-first Century: Global Scenarios and Regional Trends Studies on Nuclear Capacity Growth and Material Flow between Regions. The report does not develop a global vision for nuclear deployment per se, but presents a limited set of technical scenarios of nuclear deployment and considers their implications. It considers a global energy supply system composed of several reactor and fuel cycle types available today and of fast reactors that may be developed in the future to illustrate a possible modelling approach to identify the potential role of interregional transfer of nuclear fuel resources in supporting the global growth of nuclear energy. The study was performed with the participation of sixteen experts from nine INPRO Member States and included a dynamic simulation of material flows in nuclear energy systems using

  19. Long-term trends in California mobile source emissions and ambient concentrations of black carbon and organic aerosol.

    McDonald, Brian C; Goldstein, Allen H; Harley, Robert A

    2015-04-21

    A fuel-based approach is used to assess long-term trends (1970-2010) in mobile source emissions of black carbon (BC) and organic aerosol (OA, including both primary emissions and secondary formation). The main focus of this analysis is the Los Angeles Basin, where a long record of measurements is available to infer trends in ambient concentrations of BC and organic carbon (OC), with OC used here as a proxy for OA. Mobile source emissions and ambient concentrations have decreased similarly, reflecting the importance of on- and off-road engines as sources of BC and OA in urban areas. In 1970, the on-road sector accounted for ∼90% of total mobile source emissions of BC and OA (primary + secondary). Over time, as on-road engine emissions have been controlled, the relative importance of off-road sources has grown. By 2010, off-road engines were estimated to account for 37 ± 20% and 45 ± 16% of total mobile source contributions to BC and OA, respectively, in the Los Angeles area. This study highlights both the success of efforts to control on-road emission sources, and the importance of considering off-road engine and other VOC source contributions when assessing long-term emission and ambient air quality trends.

  20. Flawed citation practices facilitate the unsubstantiated perception of a global trend toward increased jellyfish blooms

    Sanz-Martí n, Marina; Pitt, Kylie A.; Condon, Robert H.; Lucas, Cathy H.; Novaes de Santana, Charles; Duarte, Carlos M.

    2016-01-01

    Speculation over a global rise in jellyfish populations has become widespread in the scientific literature, but until recently the purported ‘global increase’ had not been tested. Here we present a citation analysis of peer-reviewed literature to track the evolution of the current perception of increases in jellyfish and identify key papers involved in its establishment. Trend statements and citation threads were reviewed and arranged in a citation network. Trend statements were assessed according their degree of affirmation and spatial scale, and the appropriateness of the citations used to support statements was assessed. Analyses showed that 48.9% of publications misinterpreted the conclusions of cited sources, with a bias towards claiming jellyfish populations are increasing, with a single review having the most influence on the network. Collectively, these disparities resulted in a network based on unsubstantiated statements and citation threads. As a community, we must ensure our statements about scientific findings in general are accurately substantiated and carefully communicated such that incorrect perceptions, as in the case of jellyfish blooms, do not develop in the absence of rigorous testing. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

  1. Flawed citation practices facilitate the unsubstantiated perception of a global trend toward increased jellyfish blooms

    Sanz-Martín, Marina

    2016-06-24

    Speculation over a global rise in jellyfish populations has become widespread in the scientific literature, but until recently the purported ‘global increase’ had not been tested. Here we present a citation analysis of peer-reviewed literature to track the evolution of the current perception of increases in jellyfish and identify key papers involved in its establishment. Trend statements and citation threads were reviewed and arranged in a citation network. Trend statements were assessed according their degree of affirmation and spatial scale, and the appropriateness of the citations used to support statements was assessed. Analyses showed that 48.9% of publications misinterpreted the conclusions of cited sources, with a bias towards claiming jellyfish populations are increasing, with a single review having the most influence on the network. Collectively, these disparities resulted in a network based on unsubstantiated statements and citation threads. As a community, we must ensure our statements about scientific findings in general are accurately substantiated and carefully communicated such that incorrect perceptions, as in the case of jellyfish blooms, do not develop in the absence of rigorous testing. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

  2. European trends in greenhouse gases emissions from integrated solid waste management.

    Calabrò, Paolo S; Gori, Manuela; Lubello, Claudio

    2015-01-01

    The European Union (EU) has 28 member states, each with very different characteristics (e.g. surface, population density, per capita gross domestic product, per capita municipal solid waste (MSW) production, MSW composition, MSW management options). In this paper several integrated waste management scenarios representative of the European situation have been generated and analysed in order to evaluate possible trends in the net emission of greenhouse gases and in the required landfill volume. The results demonstrate that an integrated system with a high level of separate collection, efficient energy recovery in waste-to-energy plants and very limited landfill disposal is the most effective according to the indices adopted. Moreover, it is evident that a fully integrated system can make MSW management a carbon sink with a potentiality of up to approximately 40 Mt CO2eq year(-1).

  3. A half-century of production-phase greenhouse gas emissions from food loss & waste in the global food supply chain.

    Porter, Stephen D; Reay, David S; Higgins, Peter; Bomberg, Elizabeth

    2016-11-15

    Research on loss & waste of food meant for human consumption (FLW) and its environmental impact typically focuses on a single or small number of commodities in a specific location and point in time. However, it is unclear how trends in global FLW and potential for climate impact have evolved. Here, by utilising the Food and Agriculture Organization's food balance sheet data, we expand upon existing literature. Firstly, we provide a differentiated (by commodity, country and supply chain stage) bottom-up approach; secondly, we conduct a 50-year longitudinal analysis of global FLW and its production-phase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; and thirdly, we trace food wastage and its associated emissions through the entire food supply chain. Between 1961 and 2011 the annual amount of FLW by mass grew a factor of three - from 540Mt to 1.6Gt; associated production-phase (GHG) emissions more than tripled (from 680Mt to 2.2Gt CO2e). A 44% increase in global average per capita FLW emissions was also identified - from 225kg CO2e in 1961 to 323kg CO2e in 2011. The regional weighting within this global average changing markedly over time; in 1961 developed countries accounted for 48% of FLW and less than a quarter (24%) in 2011. The largest increases in FLW-associated GHG emissions were from developing economies, specifically China and Latin America - primarily from increasing losses in fruit and vegetables. Over the period examined, cumulatively such emissions added almost 68Gt CO2e to the atmospheric GHG stock; an amount the rough equivalent of two years of emissions from all anthropogenic sources at present rates. Building up from the most granular data available, this study highlights the growth in the climate burden of FLW emissions, and thus the need to improve efficiency in food supply chains to mitigate future emissions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Global terrestrial isoprene emission models: sensitivity to variability in climate and vegetation

    A. Arneth

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Due to its effects on the atmospheric lifetime of methane, the burdens of tropospheric ozone and growth of secondary organic aerosol, isoprene is central among the biogenic compounds that need to be taken into account for assessment of anthropogenic air pollution-climate change interactions. Lack of process-understanding regarding leaf isoprene production as well as of suitable observations to constrain and evaluate regional or global simulation results add large uncertainties to past, present and future emissions estimates. Focusing on contemporary climate conditions, we compare three global isoprene models that differ in their representation of vegetation and isoprene emission algorithm. We specifically aim to investigate the between- and within model variation that is introduced by varying some of the models' main features, and to determine which spatial and/or temporal features are robust between models and different experimental set-ups. In their individual standard configurations, the models broadly agree with respect to the chief isoprene sources and emission seasonality, with maximum monthly emission rates around 20–25 Tg C, when averaged by 30-degree latitudinal bands. They also indicate relatively small (approximately 5 to 10 % around the mean interannual variability of total global emissions. The models are sensitive to changes in one or more of their main model components and drivers (e.g., underlying vegetation fields, climate input which can yield increases or decreases in total annual emissions of cumulatively by more than 30 %. Varying drivers also strongly alters the seasonal emission pattern. The variable response needs to be interpreted in view of the vegetation emission capacities, as well as diverging absolute and regional distribution of light, radiation and temperature, but the direction of the simulated emission changes was not as uniform as anticipated. Our results highlight the need for modellers to evaluate their

  5. Emission scenarios for a global hydrogen economy and the consequences for global air pollution

    van Ruijven, B.J.; Lamarque, J.F.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Kram, T.; Eerens, H.

    2011-01-01

    Hydrogen is named as possible energy carrier for future energy systems. However, the impact of large-scale hydrogen use on the atmosphere is uncertain. Application of hydrogen in clean fuel cells reduces emissions of air pollutants, but emissions from hydrogen production and leakages of molecular

  6. Global trends in the awareness of sepsis: insights from search engine data between 2012 and 2017.

    Jabaley, Craig S; Blum, James M; Groff, Robert F; O'Reilly-Shah, Vikas N

    2018-01-17

    Sepsis is an established global health priority with high mortality that can be curtailed through early recognition and intervention; as such, efforts to raise awareness are potentially impactful and increasingly common. We sought to characterize trends in the awareness of sepsis by examining temporal, geographic, and other changes in search engine utilization for sepsis information-seeking online. Using time series analyses and mixed descriptive methods, we retrospectively analyzed publicly available global usage data reported by Google Trends (Google, Palo Alto, CA, USA) concerning web searches for the topic of sepsis between 24 June 2012 and 24 June 2017. Google Trends reports aggregated and de-identified usage data for its search products, including interest over time, interest by region, and details concerning the popularity of related queries where applicable. Outlying epochs of search activity were identified using autoregressive integrated moving average modeling with transfer functions. We then identified awareness campaigns and news media coverage that correlated with epochs of significantly heightened search activity. A second-order autoregressive model with transfer functions was specified following preliminary outlier analysis. Nineteen significant outlying epochs above the modeled baseline were identified in the final analysis that correlated with 14 awareness and news media events. Our model demonstrated that the baseline level of search activity increased in a nonlinear fashion. A recurrent cyclic increase in search volume beginning in 2012 was observed that correlates with World Sepsis Day. Numerous other awareness and media events were correlated with outlying epochs. The average worldwide search volume for sepsis was less than that of influenza, myocardial infarction, and stroke. Analyzing aggregate search engine utilization data has promise as a mechanism to measure the impact of awareness efforts. Heightened information-seeking about sepsis

  7. Combating global warming. Possible rules, regulations and administrative arrangements for a global market in CO2 emission entitlements

    1994-12-01

    When in 1991 the UNCTAD secretariat launched its research into the idea of controlling carbon dioxide emissions through a system of 'tradeable permits', there was little support for this approach. Some felt that the idea was premature and should not detract from efforts to introduce more conventional measures, such as environmental taxes and new regulations. However, in a few short years, the idea of using tradeable market-based instruments to combat global warming has gained widespread acceptance. The UNCTAD secretariat's 1992 study on a global system of tradeable carbon emission entitlements (UNCTAD/RDP/DFP/1), was widely regarded as a major breakthrough in this area. This study argued that tradeable permits were both an efficient means of controlling man-made carbon dioxide emissions at minimum cost, and an effective mechanism for transferring resources to developing countries and countries in transition, to help them to contribute to the international effort to abate emissions of greenhouse gases. The study contained a detailed assessment of key technical elements of a tradeable CO 2 entitlements system, including permit allocation techniques, resource transfers, equity/distributional implications, institutional and administrative requirements. The present publication explores the institutional requirements for both policy-making and the organization of a global market in CO 2 emission allowances. It shows that one can start with a simple pilot scheme based on the joint implementation of commitments, which constitutes the cornerstone of the Framework Convention, and evolve gradually to a more complete system on the basis of 'learning by doing'. Since the use of markets can dramatically lower the cost of controlling greenhouse gas emissions, it is clearly in the self-interest of major emitters to act as 'market leaders' willing to pioneer

  8. Tropospheric observations of CFC-114 and CFC-114a with a focus on long-term trends and emissions

    J. C. Laube

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs are ozone-depleting substances as well as strong greenhouse gases, and the control of their production and use under the Montreal Protocol has had demonstrable benefits to both mitigation of increasing surface UV radiation and climate forcing. A global ban on consumption came into force in 2010, but there is evidence of continuing emissions of certain CFCs from a range of sources. One compound has received little attention in the literature, namely CFC-114 (C2Cl2F4. Of particular interest here is the differentiation between CFC-114 (CClF2CClF2 and its asymmetric isomeric form CFC-114a (CF3CCl2F as atmospheric long-term measurements in the peer-reviewed literature to date have been assumed to represent the sum of both isomers with a time-invariant isomeric speciation. Here we report the first long-term measurements of the two isomeric forms separately, and find that they have different origins and trends in the atmosphere. Air samples collected at Cape Grim (41° S, Australia, during atmospheric background conditions since 1978, combined with samples collected from deep polar snow (firn enable us to obtain a near-complete record of both gases since their initial production and release in the 1940s. Both isomers were present in the unpolluted atmosphere in comparably small amounts before 1960. The mixing ratio of CFC-114 doubled from 7.9 to 14.8 parts per trillion (ppt between the start of the Cape Grim record in 1978 and the end of our record in 2014, while over the same time CFC-114a trebled from 0.35 to 1.03 ppt. Mixing ratios of both isomers are slowly decreasing by the end of this period. This is consistent with measurements of recent aircraft-based samples showing no significant interhemispheric mixing ratio gradient. We also find that the fraction of CFC-114a mixing ratio relative to that of CFC-114 increased from 4.2 to 6.9 % over the 37-year period. This contradicts the current tacit assumption used in

  9. Tropospheric observations of CFC-114 and CFC-114a with a focus on long-term trends and emissions

    Laube, Johannes C.; Hanif, Norfazrin Mohd; Martinerie, Patricia; Gallacher, Eileen; Fraser, Paul J.; Langenfelds, Ray; Brenninkmeijer, Carl A. M.; Schwander, Jakob; Witrant, Emmanuel; Wang, Jia-Lin; Ou-Yang, Chang-Feng; Gooch, Lauren J.; Reeves, Claire E.; Sturges, William T.; Oram, David E.

    2016-12-01

    Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are ozone-depleting substances as well as strong greenhouse gases, and the control of their production and use under the Montreal Protocol has had demonstrable benefits to both mitigation of increasing surface UV radiation and climate forcing. A global ban on consumption came into force in 2010, but there is evidence of continuing emissions of certain CFCs from a range of sources. One compound has received little attention in the literature, namely CFC-114 (C2Cl2F4). Of particular interest here is the differentiation between CFC-114 (CClF2CClF2) and its asymmetric isomeric form CFC-114a (CF3CCl2F) as atmospheric long-term measurements in the peer-reviewed literature to date have been assumed to represent the sum of both isomers with a time-invariant isomeric speciation. Here we report the first long-term measurements of the two isomeric forms separately, and find that they have different origins and trends in the atmosphere. Air samples collected at Cape Grim (41° S), Australia, during atmospheric background conditions since 1978, combined with samples collected from deep polar snow (firn) enable us to obtain a near-complete record of both gases since their initial production and release in the 1940s. Both isomers were present in the unpolluted atmosphere in comparably small amounts before 1960. The mixing ratio of CFC-114 doubled from 7.9 to 14.8 parts per trillion (ppt) between the start of the Cape Grim record in 1978 and the end of our record in 2014, while over the same time CFC-114a trebled from 0.35 to 1.03 ppt. Mixing ratios of both isomers are slowly decreasing by the end of this period. This is consistent with measurements of recent aircraft-based samples showing no significant interhemispheric mixing ratio gradient. We also find that the fraction of CFC-114a mixing ratio relative to that of CFC-114 increased from 4.2 to 6.9 % over the 37-year period. This contradicts the current tacit assumption used in international climate

  10. International Assistance for Low-Emission Development Planning: Coordinated Low Emissions Assistance Network (CLEAN) Inventory of Activities and Tools--Preliminary Trends

    Cox, S.; Benioff, R.

    2011-05-01

    The Coordinated Low Emissions Assistance Network (CLEAN) is a voluntary network of international practitioners supporting low-emission planning in developing countries. The network seeks to improve quality of support through sharing project information, tools, best practices and lessons, and by fostering harmonized assistance. CLEAN has developed an inventory to track and analyze international technical support and tools for low-carbon planning activities in developing countries. This paper presents a preliminary analysis of the inventory to help identify trends in assistance activities and tools available to support developing countries with low-emission planning.

  11. Using global warming potential to compare methane and CO2 emissions

    Dufresne, J.L.

    2009-01-01

    Greenhouse gases affect the planetary heat budget. Any change of their concentration affects this budget and therefore the global mean surface temperature of the Earth. These gases have different radiative properties and different lifetimes in the atmosphere, which prevents any direct comparison of the consequences of their emissions on global warming. Almost twenty years ago, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposed the global warming potential (GWP) as an index to compare the emissions of the various greenhouse gases. In a recent paper, it has been stated that the use of GWP leads to strongly underestimating the global warming due to constant methane emissions compared to that of constant CO 2 emissions. Here we show that it is not really the case. The GWP enables comparisons of global warming due to constant emissions for any prescribed period, 100 years being often used. But this comparison is not universal. For instance, the impact of methane is underestimated at the beginning of the chosen period while the impact of CO 2 is underestimated after this period

  12. Global freshwater thermal emissions from steam-electric power plants with once-through cooling systems

    Raptis, Catherine E.; Pfister, Stephan

    2016-01-01

    Large quantities of heat are rejected into freshwater bodies from power plants employing once-through cooling systems, often leading to temperature increases that disturb aquatic ecosystems. The objective of this work was to produce a high resolution global picture of power-related freshwater thermal emissions and to analyse the technological, geographical and chronological patterns behind them. The Rankine cycle was systematically solved for ∼2400 generating units with once-through cooling systems, distinguishing between simple and cogenerative cycles, giving the rejected heat as a direct output. With large unit sizes, low efficiencies, and high capacity factors, nuclear power plants reject 3.7 GW heat into freshwater on average, contrasting with 480 MW rejected from coal and gas power plants. Together, nuclear and coal-fuelled power plants from the 1970s and 1980s account for almost 50% of the rejected heat worldwide, offering motivation for their phasing out in the future. Globally, 56% of the emissions are rejected into rivers, pointing to potential areas of high thermal pollution, with the rest entering lakes and reservoirs. The outcome of this work can be used to further investigate the identified thermal emission hotspots, and to calculate regionalized water temperature increase and related impacts in environmental, energy-water nexus studies and beyond. - Highlights: • The thermodynamic cycles of ∼2400 power units with once-through cooling were solved. • Global freshwater heat emissions depend on technology, geography & chronology. • Half the global emissions come from nuclear and coal plants from the 70s & 80s. • Hotspots of freshwater thermal emissions were identified globally. • Global georeferenced emissions are available for use in water temperature models.

  13. The IGAC activity for the development of global emissions inventories: Description and initial results

    Benkovitz, C.M.; Graedel, T.E.

    1992-02-01

    Modeling assessments of the atmospheric chemistry, air quality and climatic conditions of the past, present and future require as input inventories of emissions of the appropriate chemical species constructed on appropriate spatial and temporal scales. The task of the Global Emissions Inventories Activity (GEIA) of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Project (IGAC) is the production of global inventories suitable for a range of research applications. Current GEIA programs are generally based on addressing emissions by species; these include CO 2 , NH 3 /N 2 O, SO 2 /NO x , CFC, volatile organic compounds and radioisotopes. In addition a separate program to inventory emissions from biomass burning is also being structured, plus an additional program to address data management issues for all the developing inventories. Program priorities are based on current knowledge and tasks needed to produce the desired inventories. This paper will discuss the different types of global inventories to be developed by the GEIA programs, their key characteristics, and areas to be addressed in the compilation of such inventories. Results of the first GEIA task, a survey of existing inventories and auxiliary data, will be presented. The survey included status assessments for the available inventory information for nineteen different atmospheric species or groups of species on global and regional scales and over time. Of this entire body of information, the only inventory regarded as satisfactory was that for the global emissions of CFCs. An implication of the results of these assessments is that properly gridded emissions inventories are badly needed to support atmospheric modeling calculations on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Initial studies in the development of global inventories of sulfur dioxide, currently the most advanced GEIA program, will be presented and discussed

  14. A global gas flaring black carbon emission rate dataset from 1994 to 2012

    Huang, Kan; Fu, Joshua S.

    2016-11-01

    Global flaring of associated petroleum gas is a potential emission source of particulate matters (PM) and could be notable in some specific regions that are in urgent need of mitigation. PM emitted from gas flaring is mainly in the form of black carbon (BC), which is a strong short-lived climate forcer. However, BC from gas flaring has been neglected in most global/regional emission inventories and is rarely considered in climate modeling. Here we present a global gas flaring BC emission rate dataset for the period 1994-2012 in a machine-readable format. We develop a region-dependent gas flaring BC emission factor database based on the chemical compositions of associated petroleum gas at various oil fields. Gas flaring BC emission rates are estimated using this emission factor database and flaring volumes retrieved from satellite imagery. Evaluation using a chemical transport model suggests that consideration of gas flaring emissions can improve model performance. This dataset will benefit and inform a broad range of research topics, e.g., carbon budget, air quality/climate modeling, and environmental/human exposure.

  15. Mapping the spatial distribution of global anthropogenic mercury atmospheric emission inventories

    Wilson, Simon J.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pacyna, Jozef M.; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.

    This paper describes the procedures employed to spatially distribute global inventories of anthropogenic emissions of mercury to the atmosphere, prepared by Pacyna, E.G., Pacyna, J.M., Steenhuisen, F., Wilson, S. [2006. Global anthropogenic mercury emission inventory for 2000. Atmospheric Environment, this issue, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.03.041], and briefly discusses the results of this work. A new spatially distributed global emission inventory for the (nominal) year 2000, and a revised version of the 1995 inventory are presented. Emissions estimates for total mercury and major species groups are distributed within latitude/longitude-based grids with a resolution of 1×1 and 0.5×0.5°. A key component in the spatial distribution procedure is the use of population distribution as a surrogate parameter to distribute emissions from sources that cannot be accurately geographically located. In this connection, new gridded population datasets were prepared, based on the CEISIN GPW3 datasets (CIESIN, 2004. Gridded Population of the World (GPW), Version 3. Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT). GPW3 data are available at http://beta.sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/index.jsp). The spatially distributed emissions inventories and population datasets prepared in the course of this work are available on the Internet at www.amap.no/Resources/HgEmissions/

  16. Chinese CO2 emission flows have reversed since the global financial crisis.

    Mi, Zhifu; Meng, Jing; Guan, Dabo; Shan, Yuli; Song, Malin; Wei, Yi-Ming; Liu, Zhu; Hubacek, Klaus

    2017-11-23

    This study seeks to estimate the carbon implications of recent changes in China's economic development patterns and role in global trade in the post-financial-crisis era. We utilised the latest socioeconomic datasets to compile China's 2012 multiregional input-output (MRIO) table. Environmentally extended input-output analysis and structural decomposition analysis (SDA) were applied to investigate the driving forces behind changes in CO 2 emissions embodied in China's domestic and foreign trade from 2007 to 2012. Here we show that emission flow patterns have changed greatly in both domestic and foreign trade since the financial crisis. Some economically less developed regions, such as Southwest China, have shifted from being a net emission exporter to being a net emission importer. In terms of foreign trade, emissions embodied in China's exports declined from 2007 to 2012 mainly due to changes in production structure and efficiency gains, while developing countries became the major destination of China's export emissions.

  17. Building global and diffuse solar radiation series and assessing decadal trends in Girona (NE Iberian Peninsula)

    Calbó, Josep; González, Josep-Abel; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo

    2017-08-01

    Measurement of solar radiation was initiated in Girona, northeast of the Iberian Peninsula, in the late 1980s. Initially, two pyranometers were installed, one of them equipped with a shadowband for measuring the diffuse component. Two other pyranometers currently exist, both ventilated and one of them shadowed, with a sphere, and a pyrheliometer for measuring direct radiation. Additional instruments for other shortwave and longwave components, clouds, and atmospheric aerosols have been installed in recent years. The station is subject to daily inspection, data are saved at high temporal resolution, and instruments are periodically calibrated, all in accordance with the directions of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network. The present paper describes how the entire series of global solar radiation (1987-2014) and diffuse radiation (1994-2014) were built, including the quality control process. Appropriate corrections to the diffuse component were made when a shadowband was employed to make measurements. Analysis of the series reveals that annual mean global irradiance presents a statistically significant increase of 2.5 W m-2 (1.4 %) decade-1 (1988-2014 period), mainly due to what occurs in summer (5.6 W m-2 decade-1). These results constitute the first assessment of solar radiation trends for the northeastern region of the Iberian Peninsula and are consistent with trends observed in the regional surroundings and also by satellite platforms, in agreement with the global brightening phenomenon. Diffuse radiation has decreased at -1.3 W m-2 (-2 %) decade-1 (1994-2014 period), which is a further indication of the reduced cloudiness and/or aerosol load causing the changes.

  18. Could reducing fossil-fuel emissions cause global warming

    Wigley, T M.L. [University of East Anglia, Norwich (UK). Climatic Research Unit

    1991-02-07

    When fossil fuel is burned, both carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide are added to the atmosphere. The former should cause warming of the lower atmosphere by enhancing the greenhouse effect, whereas the latter, by producing sulphate aerosols, may cause a cooling effect. The possibility that these two processes could offset each other was suggested many years ago but during most of the intervening period, attention has focused on the greenhouse effect. Interest in tropospheric aerosols has, however, recently been rekindled by the realization that they may influence climate, not only through clear-sky radiative effects, but also by modifying cloud albedo. The author examines the sensitivity of the climate system to simultaneous changes in SO{sub 2} and CO{sub 2} emissions, as might occur if controls were imposed on fossil-fuel use. Over the next 10-30 years, it is conceivable that the increased radiative forcing due to SO{sub 2} concentration changes could more than offset reductions in radiative forcing due to reduced CO{sub 2} emissions. 16 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  19. Dust emission: small-scale processes with global consequences

    Okin, Gregory S.; Bullard, Joanna E.; Reynolds, Richard L.; Ballantine, John-Andrew C.; Schepanski, Kerstin; Todd, Martin C.; Belnap, Jayne; Baddock, Matthew C.; Gill, Thomas E.; Miller, Mark E.

    2011-01-01

    Desert dust, both modern and ancient, is a critical component of the Earth system. Atmospheric dust has important effects on climate by changing the atmospheric radiation budget, while deposited dust influences biogeochemical cycles in the oceans and on land. Dust deposited on snow and ice decreases its albedo, allowing more light to be trapped at the surface, thus increasing the rate of melt and influencing energy budgets and river discharge. In the human realm, dust contributes to the transport of allergens and pathogens and when inhaled can cause or aggravate respiratory diseases. Dust storms also represent a significant hazard to road and air travel. Because it affects so many Earth processes, dust is studied from a variety of perspectives and at multiple scales, with various disciplines examining emissions for different purposes using disparate strategies. Thus, the range of objectives in studying dust, as well as experimental approaches and results, has not yet been systematically integrated. Key research questions surrounding the production and sources of dust could benefit from improved collaboration among different research communities. These questions involve the origins of dust, factors that influence dust production and emission, and methods through which dust can be monitored.

  20. A model for estimating seasonal trends of ammonia emission from cattle manure applied to grassland in the Netherlands

    Huijsmans, J. F. M.; Vermeulen, G. D.; Hol, J. M. G.; Goedhart, P. W.

    2018-01-01

    Field data on ammonia emission after liquid cattle manure ('slurry') application to grassland were statistically analysed to reveal the effect of manure and field characteristics and of weather conditions in eight consecutive periods after manure application. Logistic regression models, modelling the emission expressed as a percentage of the ammonia still present at the start of each period as the response variable, were developed separately for broadcast spreading, narrow band application (trailing shoe) and shallow injection. Wind speed, temperature, soil type, total ammoniacal nitrogen (TAN) content and dry matter content of the manure, application rate and grass height were selected as significant explanatory variables. Their effects differed for each application method and among periods. Temperature and wind speed were generally the most important drivers for emission. The fitted regression models were used to reveal seasonal trends in NH3 emission employing historical meteorological data for the years 1991-2014. The overall average emission was higher in early and midsummer than in early spring and late summer. This seasonal trend was most pronounced for broadcast spreading followed by narrow band application, and was almost absent for shallow injection. However, due to the large variation in weather conditions, emission on a particular day in early spring can be higher than on a particular day in summer. The analysis further revealed that, in a specific scenario and depending on the application technique, emission could be reduced with 20-30% by restricting manure application to favourable days, i.e. with weather conditions with minimal emission levels.

  1. Preindustrial nitrous oxide emissions from the land biosphere estimated by using a global biogeochemistry model

    Xu, Rongting; Tian, Hanqin; Lu, Chaoqun; Pan, Shufen; Chen, Jian; Yang, Jia; Zhang, Bowen

    2017-07-01

    To accurately assess how increased global nitrous oxide (N2O) emission has affected the climate system requires a robust estimation of the preindustrial N2O emissions since only the difference between current and preindustrial emissions represents net drivers of anthropogenic climate change. However, large uncertainty exists in previous estimates of preindustrial N2O emissions from the land biosphere, while preindustrial N2O emissions on the finer scales, such as regional, biome, or sector scales, have not been well quantified yet. In this study, we applied a process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) to estimate the magnitude and spatial patterns of preindustrial N2O fluxes at the biome, continental, and global level as driven by multiple environmental factors. Uncertainties associated with key parameters were also evaluated. Our study indicates that the mean of the preindustrial N2O emission was approximately 6.20 Tg N yr-1, with an uncertainty range of 4.76 to 8.13 Tg N yr-1. The estimated N2O emission varied significantly at spatial and biome levels. South America, Africa, and Southern Asia accounted for 34.12, 23.85, and 18.93 %, respectively, together contributing 76.90 % of global total emission. The tropics were identified as the major source of N2O released into the atmosphere, accounting for 64.66 % of the total emission. Our multi-scale estimates provide a robust reference for assessing the climate forcing of anthropogenic N2O emission from the land biosphere

  2. Preindustrial nitrous oxide emissions from the land biosphere estimated by using a global biogeochemistry model

    R. Xu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available To accurately assess how increased global nitrous oxide (N2O emission has affected the climate system requires a robust estimation of the preindustrial N2O emissions since only the difference between current and preindustrial emissions represents net drivers of anthropogenic climate change. However, large uncertainty exists in previous estimates of preindustrial N2O emissions from the land biosphere, while preindustrial N2O emissions on the finer scales, such as regional, biome, or sector scales, have not been well quantified yet. In this study, we applied a process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM to estimate the magnitude and spatial patterns of preindustrial N2O fluxes at the biome, continental, and global level as driven by multiple environmental factors. Uncertainties associated with key parameters were also evaluated. Our study indicates that the mean of the preindustrial N2O emission was approximately 6.20 Tg N yr−1, with an uncertainty range of 4.76 to 8.13 Tg N yr−1. The estimated N2O emission varied significantly at spatial and biome levels. South America, Africa, and Southern Asia accounted for 34.12, 23.85, and 18.93 %, respectively, together contributing 76.90 % of global total emission. The tropics were identified as the major source of N2O released into the atmosphere, accounting for 64.66 % of the total emission. Our multi-scale estimates provide a robust reference for assessing the climate forcing of anthropogenic N2O emission from the land biosphere

  3. GLOBAL CHALLENGES AND TRENDS IN THE TOURISM INDUSTRY; ROMANIA, WHERE TO?

    FIROIU DANIELA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the context of an increasingly dynamic global society, adapting to new market conditions becomes a necessity, so that mutations in the tourism industry, as the economic sector to record the fastest ascent, become part of worldwide change. Tourism in the 21st century meets new dimensions as a result of unprecedented economic and technological expansion, the implications of these changes being profound and sometimes even difficult to explain or quantify. Therefore, defining an adequate tourism offer and adapting to market requirements become real challenges for economic agents, challenges that must be managed carefully in order to attain success. Currently, the focus is mainly on the technological factor and the sustainability of tourist activities, which become real progress binders, with strong influence on the entire supply chain. Global outlined trends define new ways to practice tourism, so that the technological evolution marks the transition of the entire travel experience from the offline to the online environment. The mobile segment is the one currently creating the newest opportunities for the development of tourist services, which is based on an increasingly close relationship between operators and tourists. It is to be seen whether Romania, as an emerging tourism market, which owns all necessary assets for a rapid and strong ascent, will be able to turn challenges offered by global dynamics into opportunities or will face the risks induced by it.

  4. [Future trends in nursing education in Taiwan in the light of globalization].

    Lee, Sheuan; Lu, Ying-Chi; Yen, Wen-Jiuan; Lin, Shu-Chin

    2004-08-01

    The twenty-first century is the era of the knowledge-based economy. Its information networks developing rapidly, Taiwan has already entered an age of liberalization, diversity and globalization. Competition and change will be the norm. As globalization continues it will pose substantial problems for nursing education. Nursing is a service-oriented activity which has to develop constantly to meet the changing demands of the public as people start to live longer, society becomes more multi-cultural, the nature of diseases and other health problems changes and public policy, such as that on National Health Insurance, is modified. This article outlines the problems currently facing nursing education (i.e., the complexity of the educational system, shortcomings in the learning environment, curriculum design, the quality of faculty, evaluation methods, and the quality of students' English and Mathematics) to predict likely difficulties (i.e. student recruitment, the running of schools and the quality of clinical nurses) and trends in nursing education. (i.e. changes in the way schools are run in line with the impact of globalization, new teaching methods; faculty training and development, lifelong learning, and the internationalization of education.) The article should be of interest to nursing educators.

  5. An alternative to the global warming potential for comparing climate impacts of emissions of greenhouse gases

    Shine, Keith P.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Stuber, Nicola

    2003-01-01

    The global warming potential (GWP) is used within the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a metric for weighting the climate impact of emissions of different greenhouse gases. The GQP has been subject at many criticism because of its formulation but nevertheless it has retained some favour because of the simplicity of this design and application and its transparency compared to proposed alternatives. Here a new metric which we call the Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP) is proposed which is based on a simple analytical climate model that represents the temperature change as a given time due to either a pulse emission of a gas or a sustained emission change relative to a similar emission change of carbon dioxide. The GTP for a pulse emission illustrates that the GWP does not represent well the relative temperature response; however, the GWP is shown to be very close to the GTP for a sustained emission change for time horizons of 100 years or more. The new metric retains the advantage of the GWP in terms of transparency and the relatively small number of input parameters required for calculation. However, it has an enhanced relevance as it is further down the cause-effect chain of the impacts of greenhouse gases emissions. The GTP for a sustained emission appears to be robust to a number of uncertainties and simplifications in its derivation and may be an attractive alternative to the GWP. (Author)

  6. Temporal trends and spatial variation characteristics of primary air pollutants emissions from coal-fired industrial boilers in Beijing, China

    Xue, Yifeng; Tian, Hezhong; Yan, Jing; Zhou, Zhen; Wang, Junling; Nie, Lei; Pan, Tao; Zhou, Junrui; Hua, Shenbing; Wang, Yong; Wu, Xiaoqing

    2016-01-01

    Coal-fired combustion is recognized as a significant anthropogenic source of atmospheric compounds in Beijing, causing heavy air pollution events and associated deterioration in visibility. Obtaining an accurate understanding of the temporal trends and spatial variation characteristics of emissions from coal-fired industrial combustion is essential for predicting air quality changes and evaluating the effectiveness of current control measures. In this study, an integrated emission inventory of primary air pollutants emitted from coal-fired industrial boilers in Beijing is developed for the period of 2007–2013 using a technology-based approach. Future emission trends are projected through 2030 based on current energy-related and emission control policies. Our analysis shows that there is a general downward trend in primary air pollutants emissions because of the implementation of stricter local emission standards and the promotion by the Beijing municipal government of converting from coal-fired industrial boilers to gas-fired boilers. However, the ratio of coal consumed by industrial boilers to total coal consumption has been increasing, raising concerns about the further improvement of air quality in Beijing. Our estimates indicate that the total emissions of PM 10 , PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO x , CO and VOCs from coal-fired industrial boilers in Beijing in 2013 are approximately 19,242 t, 13,345 t, 26,615 t, 22,965 t, 63,779 t and 1406 t, respectively. Under the current environmental policies and relevant energy savings and emission control plans, it may be possible to reduce NO x and other air pollutant emissions by 94% and 90% by 2030, respectively, if advanced flue gas purification technologies are implemented and coal is replaced with natural gas in the majority of existing boilers. - Highlights: • A unit-based emission inventory of coal-fired industrial boilers is developed. • Temporal trend of historical period 2007–2013 and the future till 2030 is

  7. Comparison of global inventories of CO emissions from biomass burning derived from remotely sensed data

    D. Stroppiana

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available We compare five global inventories of monthly CO emissions named VGT, ATSR, MODIS, GFED3 and MOPITT based on remotely sensed active fires and/or burned area products for the year 2003. The objective is to highlight similarities and differences by focusing on the geographical and temporal distribution and on the emissions for three broad land cover classes (forest, savanna/grassland and agriculture. Globally, CO emissions for the year 2003 range between 365 Tg CO (GFED3 and 1422 Tg CO (VGT. Despite the large uncertainty in the total amounts, some common spatial patterns typical of biomass burning can be identified in the boreal forests of Siberia, in agricultural areas of Eastern Europe and Russia and in savanna ecosystems of South America, Africa and Australia. Regionally, the largest difference in terms of total amounts (CV > 100% and seasonality is observed at the northernmost latitudes, especially in North America and Siberia where VGT appears to overestimate the area affected by fires. On the contrary, Africa shows the best agreement both in terms of total annual amounts (CV = 31% and of seasonality despite some overestimation of emissions from forest and agriculture observed in the MODIS inventory. In Africa VGT provides the most reliable seasonality. Looking at the broad land cover types, the range of contribution to the global emissions of CO is 64–74%, 23–32% and 3–4% for forest, savanna/grassland and agriculture, respectively. These results suggest that there is still large uncertainty in global estimates of emissions and it increases if the comparison is carried by out taking into account the temporal (month and spatial (0.5° × 0.5° cell dimensions. Besides the area affected by fires, also vegetation characteristics and conditions at the time of burning should also be accurately parameterized since they can greatly influence the global estimates of CO emissions.

  8. Global combustion: the connection between fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions (1997–2010)

    Balch, Jennifer K.; Nagy, R. Chelsea; Archibald, Sally; Moritz, Max A.; Williamson, Grant J.

    2016-01-01

    Humans use combustion for heating and cooking, managing lands, and, more recently, for fuelling the industrial economy. As a shift to fossil-fuel-based energy occurs, we expect that anthropogenic biomass burning in open landscapes will decline as it becomes less fundamental to energy acquisition and livelihoods. Using global data on both fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions, we tested this relationship over a 14 year period (1997–2010). The global average annual carbon emissions from biomass burning during this time were 2.2 Pg C per year (±0.3 s.d.), approximately one-third of fossil fuel emissions over the same period (7.3 Pg C, ±0.8 s.d.). There was a significant inverse relationship between average annual fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions. Fossil fuel emissions explained 8% of the variation in biomass burning emissions at a global scale, but this varied substantially by land cover. For example, fossil fuel burning explained 31% of the variation in biomass burning in woody savannas, but was a non-significant predictor for evergreen needleleaf forests. In the land covers most dominated by human use, croplands and urban areas, fossil fuel emissions were more than 30- and 500-fold greater than biomass burning emissions. This relationship suggests that combustion practices may be shifting from open landscape burning to contained combustion for industrial purposes, and highlights the need to take into account how humans appropriate combustion in global modelling of contemporary fire. Industrialized combustion is not only an important driver of atmospheric change, but also an important driver of landscape change through companion declines in human-started fires. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’. PMID:27216509

  9. Global combustion: the connection between fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions (1997-2010).

    Balch, Jennifer K; Nagy, R Chelsea; Archibald, Sally; Bowman, David M J S; Moritz, Max A; Roos, Christopher I; Scott, Andrew C; Williamson, Grant J

    2016-06-05

    Humans use combustion for heating and cooking, managing lands, and, more recently, for fuelling the industrial economy. As a shift to fossil-fuel-based energy occurs, we expect that anthropogenic biomass burning in open landscapes will decline as it becomes less fundamental to energy acquisition and livelihoods. Using global data on both fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions, we tested this relationship over a 14 year period (1997-2010). The global average annual carbon emissions from biomass burning during this time were 2.2 Pg C per year (±0.3 s.d.), approximately one-third of fossil fuel emissions over the same period (7.3 Pg C, ±0.8 s.d.). There was a significant inverse relationship between average annual fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions. Fossil fuel emissions explained 8% of the variation in biomass burning emissions at a global scale, but this varied substantially by land cover. For example, fossil fuel burning explained 31% of the variation in biomass burning in woody savannas, but was a non-significant predictor for evergreen needleleaf forests. In the land covers most dominated by human use, croplands and urban areas, fossil fuel emissions were more than 30- and 500-fold greater than biomass burning emissions. This relationship suggests that combustion practices may be shifting from open landscape burning to contained combustion for industrial purposes, and highlights the need to take into account how humans appropriate combustion in global modelling of contemporary fire. Industrialized combustion is not only an important driver of atmospheric change, but also an important driver of landscape change through companion declines in human-started fires.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  10. Global NOx emission estimates derived from an assimilation of OMI tropospheric NO2 columns

    K. Sudo

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available A data assimilation system has been developed to estimate global nitrogen oxides (NOx emissions using OMI tropospheric NO2 columns (DOMINO product and a global chemical transport model (CTM, the Chemical Atmospheric GCM for Study of Atmospheric Environment and Radiative Forcing (CHASER. The data assimilation system, based on an ensemble Kalman filter approach, was applied to optimize daily NOx emissions with a horizontal resolution of 2.8° during the years 2005 and 2006. The background error covariance estimated from the ensemble CTM forecasts explicitly represents non-direct relationships between the emissions and tropospheric columns caused by atmospheric transport and chemical processes. In comparison to the a priori emissions based on bottom-up inventories, the optimized emissions were higher over eastern China, the eastern United States, southern Africa, and central-western Europe, suggesting that the anthropogenic emissions are mostly underestimated in the inventories. In addition, the seasonality of the estimated emissions differed from that of the a priori emission over several biomass burning regions, with a large increase over Southeast Asia in April and over South America in October. The data assimilation results were validated against independent data: SCIAMACHY tropospheric NO2 columns and vertical NO2 profiles obtained from aircraft and lidar measurements. The emission correction greatly improved the agreement between the simulated and observed NO2 fields; this implies that the data assimilation system efficiently derives NOx emissions from concentration observations. We also demonstrated that biases in the satellite retrieval and model settings used in the data assimilation largely affect the magnitude of estimated emissions. These dependences should be carefully considered for better understanding NOx sources from top-down approaches.

  11. Global emission inventory and atmospheric transport of black carbon. Evaluation of the associated exposure

    Wang, Rong

    2015-06-01

    This thesis presents research focusing on the improvement of high-resolution global black carbon (BC) emission inventory and application in assessing the population exposure to ambient BC. A particular focus of the thesis is on the construction of a high-resolution (both spatial and sectorial) fuel consumption database, which is used to develop the emission inventory of black carbon. Above all, the author updates the global emission inventory of black carbon, a resource subsequently used to study the atmospheric transport of black carbon over Asia with the help of a high-resolution nested model. The thesis demonstrates that spatial bias in fuel consumption and BC emissions can be reduced by means of the sub-national disaggregation approach. Using the inventory and nested model, ambient BC concentrations can be better validated against observations. Lastly, it provides a complete uncertainty analysis of global black carbon emissions, and this uncertainty is taken into account in the atmospheric modeling, helping to better understand the role of black carbon in regional and global air pollution.

  12. 50% REDUCTION IN GLOBAL GHG EMISSION BY 2050 AND ITS IMPLICATION

    Fujimori, Shinichiro; Masui, Toshihiko; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

    To prevent the global temperature increase by two degrees, global greenhouse gas emission in 2050 should be cut by half relative to its 1990 level. This study shows following three things by using multi regions and sectors recursive dynamic type computable general equilibrium model. One is the feasibility of that global emission target. The others are the counter measures and the impact on the macro economy, if that target were feasible. In addition, the scenarios with and without international emission trading are implemented and the effect of the trading is analyzed. As a result, that target can be achieved. The marginal abatement cost is 750/tCO2-eq in 2050. Energy efficiency improvement, renewable energy and carbon capture and storage technologies are the main players as counter measures. If the emission trading is available freely, GDP loss is 4.5% globally in 2050. Otherwise, the loss is increased to 6.1%. The emission trading mechanism is also one of the important measures.

  13. Global Survey on Future Trends in Human Spaceflight: the Implications for Space Tourism

    Gurtuna, O.; Garneau, S.

    2002-01-01

    With the much-publicized first ever space tourist flight, of Dennis Tito, and the announcement of the second space tourist flight to take place in April 2002, it is clear that an alternative motivation for human spaceflight has emerged. Human spaceflight is no longer only about meeting the priorities of national governments and space agencies, but is also about the tangible possibility of ordinary people seeing the Earth from a previously exclusive vantage point. It is imperative that major space players look beyond the existing human spaceflight rationale to identify some of the major driving forces behind space tourism, including the evolving market potential and developments in enabling technologies. In order to determine the influence of these forces on the future of commercial human spaceflight, the responses of a Futuraspace survey on future trends in human spaceflight are analyzed and presented. The motivation of this study is to identify sought-after space destinations, explore the expected trends in enabling technologies, and understand the future role of emerging space players. The survey will reflect the opinions of respondents from around the world including North America, Europe (including Russia) and Asia. The profiles of targeted respondents from space industry, government and academia are high-level executives/managers, senior researchers, as well as former and current astronauts. The survey instrument is a questionnaire which is validated by a pilot study. The sampling method is non-probabilistic, targeting as many space experts as possible who fit our intended respondent profile. Descriptive and comparative statistical analysis methods are implemented to investigate both global and regional perceptions of future commercial trends in human spaceflight. This study is not intended to be a formal market study of the potential viability of the space tourism market. Instead, the focus is on the future trends of human spaceflight, by drawing on the

  14. How to globally reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from sewage systems?

    Batz, S. de; Bonardet, P.; Trouve, J.P.

    2007-01-01

    A reliable and exhaustive measurement of the global greenhouse gas emissions from a given sewage plant must be performed prior to the implementation of any abatement measure. The method presented in this paper takes into consideration both the direct emissions but also the indirect ones generated by the plant activity and identified using a life cycle-type approach. Three examples of projects or realizations are presented in this paper to illustrate the different means of abatement of greenhouse gas emissions from a sewage plant in a global way. The first example concerns a project of abatement of the electricity consumption of a plant for sludges and fats digestion and biogas valorization. A 85% global abatement of CO 2 emissions is obtained thanks to the substitution of the aerobic digestion process by an anaerobic one. The second example presents an optimization of the greenhouse gas emissions of the municipal sewage plant of Valenton (Paris region) thanks to a valorization of sludges as fertilizers and fuels and to the recovery of the process heat. The last example concerns the Seine-aval sewage plant which gathers several projects of improvement: setting up of a second biogas turbine, redesign of the heat loop, use of river transport for a significant abatement of greenhouse gas emissions. (J.S.)

  15. Integration and disintegration processes of ethnic communities in a globalized world: challenges and trends

    A. A. Paronikian

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article examines the challenges and trends in integration and disintegration processes of ethnic communities in the world of globalization. Established that ethnic disintegration is inevitable consequence of ethnic integration, and its intensity depends on what method is carried Integration: voluntary or forced. What is important is the fact that in the era of globalization integration and disintegration processes of ethnic communities that are inherent in the very essence of ethnicity, greatly amplified. It was found that entering to the cultural field of ethnic communities of other ethnic entities, penalized sustainable ethnic balance, contributes to the phenomenon of «rejection of other» causes of ethnic conflict and the consequent threat of disintegration of ethnic communities. Disintegration often leads to weakening of the linkages and interactions between components of the integrated system in a multi-ethnic society. However, the author concludes that the process of disintegration cannot be regarded as unambiguously negative because, on the one hand, it contributes to the weakening and decline; and sometimes division of multi-ethnic countries, but on the other hand - it contributes to the birth of the new and revival of the old nation-states, which is particularly important in conditions of transformation of the global community towards the post-industrial and information epoch in the future. In general, the integration and disintegration change each other depending on global processes and their transformations. Therefore, in the era of globalization’s challenges it is important is the effective management of these processes to prevent adverse effects.

  16. The global diffusion of organ transplantation: trends, drivers and policy implications

    Hirth, Richard; Mahíllo, Beatriz; Domínguez-Gil, Beatriz; Delmonico, Francis L; Noel, Luc; Chapman, Jeremy; Matesanz, Rafael; Carmona, Mar; Alvarez, Marina; Núñez, Jose R; Leichtman, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Rising incomes, the spread of personal insurance, lifestyle factors adding to the burden of illness, ageing populations, globalization and skills transfer within the medical community have increased worldwide demand for organ transplantation. The Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation, which was built in response to World Health Assembly resolution WHA57.18, has conducted ongoing documentation of global transplantation activities since 2007. In this paper, we use the Global Observatory’s data to describe the current distribution of – and trends in – transplantation activities and to evaluate the role of health systems factors and macroeconomics in the diffusion of transplantation technology. We then consider the implications of our results for health policies relating to organ donation and transplantation. Of the World Health Organization’s Member States, most now engage in organ transplantation and more than a third performed deceased donor transplantation in 2011. In general, the Member States that engage in organ transplantation have greater access to physician services and greater total health spending per capita than the Member States where organ transplantation is not performed. The provision of deceased donor transplantation was closely associated with high levels of gross national income per capita. There are several ways in which governments can support the ethical development of organ donation and transplantation programmes. Specifically, they can ensure that appropriate legislation, regulation and oversight are in place, and monitor donation and transplantation activities, practices and outcomes. Moreover, they can allocate resources towards the training of specialist physicians, surgeons and transplant coordinators, and implement a professional donor-procurement network. PMID:25378744

  17. Proceedings of the 2015 international summit on fibropapillomatosis: Global status, trends, and population impacts

    Hargrove, Stacy A.; Work, Thierry M.; Brunson, Shandell; Foley, Allen M.; Balazs, George H.

    2016-01-01

    The 2015 International Summit on Fibropapillomatosis (FP) was convened in Honolulu, Hawaii June 11-14, 2015. Scientists from around the world were invited to present results from sea turtle monitoring and research programs as they relate to the global status, trends, and population impacts of FP on green turtles. The participants engaged in discussions that resulted in the following conclusions: 1.Globally, FP has long been present in wild sea turtle populations the earliest mention was in the late 1800s in the Florida Keys. 2.FP primarily affects medium-sized immature turtles in coastal foraging pastures. 3.Expression of FP differs across ocean basins and to some degree within basins. Turtles in the Southeast US, Caribbean, Brazil, and Australia rarely have oral tumors (inside the mouth cavity), whereas they are common and often severe in Hawaii. Internal tumors (on vital organs) occur in the Atlantic and Hawaii, but only rarely in Australia. Liver tumors are common in Florida but not in Hawaii. 4.Recovery from FP through natural processes, when the affliction is not severe, has been documented in wild populations globally. 5.FP causes reduced survivorship, but documented mortality rates in Australia and Hawaii are low. The mortality impact of FP is not currently exceeding population growth rates in some intensively monitored populations (e.g., Florida, Hawaii) as evidenced by increasing nesting trends despite the incidence of FP in immature foraging populations. 6.Pathogens, hosts, and potential disease and environmental cofactors have the capacity to change; while we are having success now, there needs to be continued monitoring to detect changes in the distribution, occurrence, and severity of the disease. 7.While we do not have clear evidence to provide the direct link, globally, the preponderance of sites with a high frequency of FP tumors are areas with some degree of degradation resulting from altered watersheds. Watershed management and responsible coastal

  18. High-resolution atmospheric emission inventory of the argentine energy sector. Comparison with edgar global emission database

    S. Enrique Puliafito

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study presents a 2014 high-resolution spatially disaggregated emission inventory (0.025° × 0.025° horizontal resolution, of the main activities in the energy sector in Argentina. The sub-sectors considered are public generation of electricity, oil refineries, cement production, transport (maritime, air, rail and road, residential and commercial. The following pollutants were included: greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, ozone precursors (CO, NOx, VOC and other specific air quality indicators such as SO2, PM10, and PM2.5. This work could contribute to a better geographical allocation of the pollutant sources through census based population maps. Considering the sources of greenhouse gas emissions, the total amount is 144 Tg CO2eq, from which the transportation sector emits 57.8 Tg (40%; followed by electricity generation, with 40.9 Tg (28%; residential + commercial, with 31.24 Tg (22%; and cement and refinery production, with 14.3 Tg (10%. This inventory shows that 49% of the total emissions occur in rural areas: 31% in rural areas of medium population density, 13% in intermediate urban areas and 7% in densely populated urban areas. However, if emissions are analyzed by extension (per square km, the largest impact is observed in medium and densely populated urban areas, reaching more than 20.3 Gg per square km of greenhouse gases, 297 Mg/km2 of ozone precursors gases and 11.5 Mg/km2 of other air quality emissions. A comparison with the EDGAR global emission database shows that, although the total country emissions are similar for several sub sectors and pollutants, its spatial distribution is not applicable to Argentina. The road and residential transport emissions represented by EDGAR result in an overestimation of emissions in rural areas and an underestimation in urban areas, especially in more densely populated areas. EDGAR underestimates 60 Gg of methane emissions from road transport sector and fugitive emissions from refining

  19. Evaluating temporal consistency of long-term global NDVI datasets for trend analysis

    Tian, Feng; Fensholt, Rasmus; Verbesselt, Jan

    2015-01-01

    -sensor NDVI time series by analyzing the co-occurrence between breaks in the NDVI time series and sensor shifts from GIMMS3g (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies 3rd generation), VIP3 (Vegetation Index and Phenology version 3), LTDR4 (Long Term Data Record version 4) and SPOT-VGT (Système Pour l......, potentially introducing uncertainties in NDVI trend analysis. Platform/sensor change from VGT-1 to VGT-2 is found to cause a significant positive break in the SPOT-VGT NDVI time series. Potential artifacts exist in humid, dry-subhumid, semi-arid and hyper-arid regions of GIMMS3g NDVI, whereas no signs...

  20. TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARKETING COMMUNICATIONS IN THE GLOBAL INTERACTIVE SPACE

    N. Kochkina

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article identifies trends in the development of marketing communications in the global interactive space by analyzing the factors of their functioning and researching motivation of viral audience. It is revealed the prevalence of interactive technologies in today's information space and the growth dynamics of interactive advertising market. It is proved that favorable conditions for marketing communications' functioning forms the basis for the development of viral advertising as an effective communication tool for untraditional impact on potential customers. The popularity of social networks as a major source of viral messages is determined. The motivation of YouTube audience, which provides a resonant video viewing and retransmission, is investigated. Gender and age differences that stipulate communication affect on consumers are identified. Cyclic social consciousness is observed that demands further research of viral audience, including constructing scenarios of viral behavior.

  1. Modelling global methane emissions from livestock: Biological and nutritional controls

    Johnson, Donald E.

    1992-01-01

    The available observations of methane production from the literature have been compiled into a ruminant methane data base. This data base includes 400 treatment mean observations of methane losses from cattle and sheep, and minor numbers of measurements from other species. Methane loss varied from 2.0 to 11.6 percent of dietary gross energy. Measurements included describe the many different weights and physiological states of the animals fed and diets ranging from all forage to all concentrate diets or mixtures. An auxiliary spreadsheet lists approximately 1000 individual animal observations. Many important concepts have emerged from our query and analysis of this data set. The majority of the world's cattle, sheep, and goats under normal husbandry circumstances likely produce methane very close to 6 percent of their daily diets gross energy (2 percent of the diet by weight). Although individual animals or losses from specific dietary research circumstances can vary considerably, the average for the vast majority of groups of ruminant livestock are likely to fall between 5.5 to 6.5 percent. We must caution, however, that little experimental data is available for two-thirds of the world's ruminants in developing countries. Available evidence suggests similar percentage of emissions, but this supposition needs confirmation. More importantly, data is skimpy or unavailable to describe diet consumption, animal weight, and class distribution.

  2. A global catalogue of large SO2 sources and emissions derived from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument

    V. E. Fioletov

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Sulfur dioxide (SO2 measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI satellite sensor processed with the new principal component analysis (PCA algorithm were used to detect large point emission sources or clusters of sources. The total of 491 continuously emitting point sources releasing from about 30 kt yr−1 to more than 4000 kt yr−1 of SO2 per year have been identified and grouped by country and by primary source origin: volcanoes (76 sources; power plants (297; smelters (53; and sources related to the oil and gas industry (65. The sources were identified using different methods, including through OMI measurements themselves applied to a new emission detection algorithm, and their evolution during the 2005–2014 period was traced by estimating annual emissions from each source. For volcanic sources, the study focused on continuous degassing, and emissions from explosive eruptions were excluded. Emissions from degassing volcanic sources were measured, many for the first time, and collectively they account for about 30 % of total SO2 emissions estimated from OMI measurements, but that fraction has increased in recent years given that cumulative global emissions from power plants and smelters are declining while emissions from oil and gas industry remained nearly constant. Anthropogenic emissions from the USA declined by 80 % over the 2005–2014 period as did emissions from western and central Europe, whereas emissions from India nearly doubled, and emissions from other large SO2-emitting regions (South Africa, Russia, Mexico, and the Middle East remained fairly constant. In total, OMI-based estimates account for about a half of total reported anthropogenic SO2 emissions; the remaining half is likely related to sources emitting less than 30 kt yr−1 and not detected by OMI.

  3. A Global Catalogue of Large SO2 Sources and Emissions Derived from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument

    Fioletov, Vitali E.; McLinden, Chris A.; Krotkov, Nickolay; Li, Can; Joiner, Joanna; Theys, Nicolas; Carn, Simon; Moran, Mike D.

    2016-01-01

    Sulfur dioxide (SO2) measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite sensor processed with the new principal component analysis (PCA) algorithm were used to detect large point emission sources or clusters of sources. The total of 491 continuously emitting point sources releasing from about 30 kt yr(exp -1) to more than 4000 kt yr(exp -1) of SO2 per year have been identified and grouped by country and by primary source origin: volcanoes (76 sources); power plants (297); smelters (53); and sources related to the oil and gas industry (65). The sources were identified using different methods, including through OMI measurements themselves applied to a new emission detection algorithm, and their evolution during the 2005- 2014 period was traced by estimating annual emissions from each source. For volcanic sources, the study focused on continuous degassing, and emissions from explosive eruptions were excluded. Emissions from degassing volcanic sources were measured, many for the first time, and collectively they account for about 30% of total SO2 emissions estimated from OMI measurements, but that fraction has increased in recent years given that cumulative global emissions from power plants and smelters are declining while emissions from oil and gas industry remained nearly constant. Anthropogenic emissions from the USA declined by 80% over the 2005-2014 period as did emissions from western and central Europe, whereas emissions from India nearly doubled, and emissions from other large SO2-emitting regions (South Africa, Russia, Mexico, and the Middle East) remained fairly constant. In total, OMI-based estimates account for about a half of total reported anthropogenic SO2 emissions; the remaining half is likely related to sources emitting less than 30 kt yr(exp -1) and not detected by OMI.

  4. Methane emissions from the global oil and gas supply chain: recent advances and next steps

    Zavala Araiza, D.; Herndon, S. C.; Roscioli, J. R.; Yacovitch, T. I.; Knighton, W. B.; Johnson, M.; Tyner, D. R.; Hamburg, S.

    2017-12-01

    A wide body of research has characterized methane emissions from the oil and gas system in the US. In contrast, empirical data is limited for other significant oil and gas producing regions across the world. As a consequence, measuring and characterizing methane emissions across global oil and gas operations will be crucial to the design of effective mitigation strategies. Several countries have announced pledges to reduce methane emissions from this system (e.g., North America, Climate and Clean Air Coalition [CCAC] ministers). In the case of Canada, the federal government recently announced regulations supporting a 40-45% reduction of methane emissions from the oil and gas production systems. For these regulations to be effective, it is critical to understand the current methane emission patterns. We present results from a coordinated multiscale (i.e., airborne-based, ground-based) measurement campaign in Alberta, Canada. We use empirically derived emission estimates to characterize site-level emissions and derive an emissions distribution. Our work shows that many major sources of emissions are unmeasured or underreported. Consistent with previous studies in the US, a small fraction of sites disproportionately account for the majority of emissions: roughly 20% of sites accounted for 75% of emissions. An independent airborne-based regional estimate was 40% lower than the ground-based regional estimate, but not statistically different. Finally, we summarize next steps as part of the CCAC Oil and Gas Methane Study: ongoing work that is targeting oil and gas sectors/production regions with limited empirical data on methane emissions. This work builds on the approach deployed in quantifying methane emissions from the oil and gas supply chain in the US, underscoring the commitment to transparency of the collected data, external review, deployment of multiple methodologies, and publication of results in peer-reviewed journals.

  5. How much do direct livestock emissions actually contribute to global warming?

    Reisinger, Andy; Clark, Harry

    2018-04-01

    Agriculture directly contributes about 10%-12% of current global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, mostly from livestock. However, such percentage estimates are based on global warming potentials (GWPs), which do not measure the actual warming caused by emissions and ignore the fact that methane does not accumulate in the atmosphere in the same way as CO 2 . Here, we employ a simple carbon cycle-climate model, historical estimates and future projections of livestock emissions to infer the fraction of actual warming that is attributable to direct livestock non-CO 2 emissions now and in future, and to CO 2 from pasture conversions, without relying on GWPs. We find that direct livestock non-CO 2 emissions caused about 19% of the total modelled warming of 0.81°C from all anthropogenic sources in 2010. CO 2 from pasture conversions contributed at least another 0.03°C, bringing the warming directly attributable to livestock to 23% of the total warming in 2010. The significance of direct livestock emissions to future warming depends strongly on global actions to reduce emissions from other sectors. Direct non-CO 2 livestock emissions would contribute only about 5% of the warming in 2100 if emissions from other sectors increase unabated, but could constitute as much as 18% (0.27°C) of the warming in 2100 if global CO 2 emissions from other sectors are reduced to near or below zero by 2100, consistent with the goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C. These estimates constitute a lower bound since indirect emissions linked to livestock feed production and supply chains were not included. Our estimates demonstrate that expanding the mitigation potential and realizing substantial reductions of direct livestock non-CO 2 emissions through demand and supply side measures can make an important contribution to achieve the stringent mitigation goals set out in the Paris Agreement, including by increasing the carbon budget consistent with the 1.5°C goal. © 2017 John

  6. Longitudinal trends in global obesity research and collaboration: a review using bibliometric metadata.

    Khan, A; Choudhury, N; Uddin, S; Hossain, L; Baur, L A

    2016-04-01

    The goal of this study was to understand research trends and collaboration patterns together with scholarly impact within the domain of global obesity research. We developed and analysed bibliographic affiliation data collected from 117,340 research articles indexed in Scopus database on the topic of obesity and published from 1993-2012. We found steady growth and an exponential increase of publication numbers. Research output in global obesity research roughly doubled each 5 years, with almost 80% of the publications and authors from the second decade (2003-2012). The highest publication output was from the USA - 42% of publications had at least one author from the USA. Many US institutions also ranked highly in terms of research output and collaboration. Fifteen of the top-20 institutions in terms of publication output were from the USA; however, several European and Japanese research institutions ranked more highly in terms of average citations per paper. The majority of obesity research and collaboration has been confined to developed countries although developing countries have showed higher growth in recent times, e.g. the publication ratio between 2003-2012 and 1993-2002 for developing regions was much higher than that of developed regions (9:1 vs. 4:1). We also identified around 42 broad disciplines from authors' affiliation data, and these showed strong collaboration between them. Overall, this study provides one of the most comprehensive longitudinal bibliometric analyses of obesity research. This should help in understanding research trends, spatial density, collaboration patterns and the complex multi-disciplinary nature of research in the obesity domain. © 2016 World Obesity.

  7. Global Lakes Sentinel Services: Evaluation of Chl-a Trends in Deep Clear Lakes

    Cazzaniga, Ilaria; Giardino, Claudia; Bresciani, Mariano; Poser, Kathrin; Peters, Steef; Hommersom, Annelies; Schenk, Karin; Heege, Thomas; Philipson, Petra; Ruescas, Ana; Bottcher, Martin; Stelzer, Kerstin

    2016-08-01

    The aim of this study is the analysis of trend in the trophic level evolution in clear deep lakes which, being characterised by good quality state, are important socio- economic resources for their regions. The selected lakes are situated in Europe (Garda, Maggiore, Constance and Vättern), North America (Michigan) and Africa (Malawi and Tanganyika) and cover a range of eco- regions (continental, perialpine, boreal, rift valley) distributed globally.To evaluate trophic level tendency we mainly focused on chlorophyll-a concentrations (chl-a) which is a direct proxy of trophic status. The chl-a concentrations were obtained from 5216 cloud-free MERIS imagery from 2002 to 2012.The 'GLaSS RoIStats tool' available within the GLaSS project was used to extract chl-a in a number of region of interests (ROI) located in pelagic waters as well as some few other stations depending on lakes morphology. For producing the time-series trend, these extracted data were analysed with the Seasonal Kendall test.The results overall show almost stable conditions with a slight increase in concentration for lakes Maggiore, Constance, and the Green Bay of Lake Michigan; a slight decrease for lakes Garda and Tanganyika and absolutely stable conditions for lakes Vättern and Malawi.The results presented in this work show the great capability of MERIS to perform trend tests analysis on trophic status with focus on chl-a concentration. Being chl-a also a key parameter in water quality monitoring plans, this study also supports the managing practices implemented worldwide for using the water of the lakes.

  8. Global patterns and trends in stomach cancer incidence: Age, period and birth cohort analysis.

    Luo, Ganfeng; Zhang, Yanting; Guo, Pi; Wang, Li; Huang, Yuanwei; Li, Ke

    2017-10-01

    The cases of stomach cancer (SC) incidence are increasing per year and the SC burden has remained very high in some countries. We aimed to evaluate the global geographical variation in SC incidence and temporal trends from 1978 to 2007, with an emphasis on the effect of birth cohort. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort model were applied. From 2003 to 2007, male rate were 1.5- to 3-fold higher than female in all countries. Rates were highest in Eastern Asian and South American countries. Except for Uganda, all countries showed favorable trends. Pronounced cohort-specific increases in risk for recent birth cohorts were seen in Brazil, Colombia, Iceland, New Zealand, Norway, Uganda and US white people for males and in Australia, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Ecuador, Iceland, India, Malta, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Uganda, US black and white people for females. The cohort-specific ratio for male significantly decreased in Japan, Malta and Spain for cohorts born since 1950 and in Austria, China, Croatia, Ecuador, Russia, Switzerland and Thailand for cohorts born since 1960 and for female in Japan for cohorts born since 1950 and in Canada, China, Croatia, Latvia, Russia and Thailand for cohorts born since 1960. Disparities in incidence and carcinogenic risk persist worldwide. The favorable trends may be due to changes in environmental exposure and lifestyle, including decreased Helicobacter pylori prevalence, increased intake of fresh fruits and vegetables, the availability of refrigeration and decreased intake of salted and preserved food and smoking prevalence. © 2017 UICC.

  9. Digital Revolution and Innovative Business Models in Healthcare: Global Trends and Russian Realities.

    Bereznoy, A V; Saygitov, R T

    Digital revolution is one of the major global trends resulting in the unprecedented scale and depth of penetration of information and communication technologies into all sectors of national economy, including healthcare. The development of this trend brought about high expectations related to the improvement of quality of medical assistance, accessibility and economic efficiency of healthcare services. However, euphoria of the first steps of digital revolution is passing now, opening doors to more realistic analysis of opportunities and conditions of realization of the true potential hidden in the digital transformation of healthcare. More balanced perception of the peculiarities of innovation processes in the sector is coming together with understanding of the serious barriers, hampering implementation of the new ideas and practices due to complicated interweaving of social, economic, ethical and psychological factors. When taking into account the industry specifics it becomes evident that digital revolution cannot be a quick turnaround but rather would pass a number of phases and is likely to last more than one decade. In this context the article focuses on the prospects of the new business models, capable of making significant changes in today’s economic landscape of the sector (including uber-medicine, retail clinics, retainer medicine, network models of medical services). The authors also provide assessment of the current situation and perspectives of digital healthcare development in Russia.

  10. Decomposition of factors determining the trend of CO{sub 2} emissions from car travel in Great Britain (1970-2000)

    Kwon, Tae-Hyeong [The Korea Transport Institute (KOTI), 2311 Daehwa-dong, Ilsan-gu, Goyang-Shi, Gyeonggi-do, 411-701 (Korea, Republic of)

    2005-04-15

    Carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) is the most important of the greenhouse gases that are causing global warming. The transport sector currently accounts for more than one-quarter of CO{sub 2} emissions and more importantly its share in total emissions is increasing in most countries. This paper investigates the key factors in the change in CO{sub 2} emissions from car travel in Great Britain over the last 30 years. It attempts to disentangle determinants of growth in CO{sub 2} emissions from car travel, which has the largest share of emissions in road transport. The study is based on various decomposition analyses, starting from the IPAT identity. As summarised in the IPAT identity, the degree of the Impact of human activity on the environment is determined by changes in Population, Affluence (per-capita consumption) and Technology (environmental impact per quantity of consumption). In the case of CO{sub 2} emissions from car travel in Great Britain, the affluence (A) factor (car driving distance per person) was a dominant force for the growth of emissions over the last 30 years. Not only do people travel longer distances by cars than 30 years ago, but car occupancy rates have also decreased, contributing to the growth of car driving distance per person. Although technology (T) factors such as fuel efficiency and fuel substitution to diesel fuel partly cancelled out these growth effects of affluence factors, this contribution was relatively small. However, in the 1990s there emerged a different pattern in the trend. Of the affluence (A) factors, the growth rate of car trip distance per person weakened considerably. As for the technology (T) effect, the carbon intensity of car driving kept decreasing over this period. Therefore, although CO{sub 2} emissions from car travel (I) continued to increase, the growth rate became substantially lower than in the earlier periods. More detailed investigation into the determinants of both affluence (A) factors and technology (T

  11. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    B. B. B. Booth

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high

  12. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

    2013-04-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie

  13. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving air quality: Two global challenges.

    Erickson, Larry E

    2017-07-01

    There are many good reasons to promote sustainable development and reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other combustion emissions. The air quality in many urban environments is causing many premature deaths because of asthma, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and dementia associated with combustion emissions. The global social cost of air pollution is at least $3 trillion/year; particulates, nitrogen oxides and ozone associated with combustion emissions are very costly pollutants. Better air quality in urban environments is one of the reasons for countries to work together to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. There are many potential benefits associated with limiting climate change. In the recent past, the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been increasing and the number of weather and climate disasters with costs over $1 billion has been increasing. The average global temperature set new record highs in 2014, 2015, and 2016. To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the transition to electric vehicles and electricity generation using renewable energy must take place in accord with the goals of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. This work reviews progress and identifies some of the health benefits associated with reducing combustion emissions. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog, 36: 982-988, 2017.

  14. Potential for reducing global carbon emissions from electricity production-A benchmarking analysis

    Ang, B.W.; Zhou, P.; Tay, L.P.

    2011-01-01

    We present five performance indicators for electricity generation for 129 countries using the 2005 data. These indicators, measured at the national level, are the aggregate CO 2 intensity of electricity production, the efficiencies of coal, oil and gas generation and the share of electricity produced from non-fossil fuels. We conduct a study on the potential for reducing global energy-related CO 2 emissions from electricity production through simple benchmarking. This is performed based on the last four performance indicators and the construction of a cumulative curve for each of these indicators. It is found that global CO 2 emissions from electricity production would be reduced by 19% if all these indicators are benchmarked at the 50th percentile. Not surprisingly, the emission reduction potential measured in absolute terms is the highest for large countries such as China, India, Russia and the United States. When the potential is expressed as a percentage of a country's own emissions, few of these countries appear in the top-five list. - Research highlights: → We study variations in emissions per kWh of electricity generated among countries. → We analyze emissions from electricity production through benchmarking. → Estimates of reduction in emissions are made based on different assumptions.

  15. Global carbon stocks and potential emissions due to mangrove deforestation from 2000 to 2012

    Hamilton, Stuart E.; Friess, Daniel A.

    2018-03-01

    Mangrove forests store high densities of organic carbon, which, when coupled with high rates of deforestation, means that mangroves have the potential to contribute substantially to carbon emissions. Consequently, mangroves are strong candidates for inclusion in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and payments for ecosystem services (PES) programmes that financially incentivize the conservation of forested carbon stocks. This study quantifies annual mangrove carbon stocks from 2000 to 2012 at the global, national and sub-national levels, and global carbon emissions resulting from deforestation over the same time period. Globally, mangroves stored 4.19 Pg of carbon in 2012, with Indonesia, Brazil, Malaysia and Papua New Guinea accounting for more than 50% of the global stock. 2.96 Pg of the global carbon stock is contained within the soil and 1.23 Pg in the living biomass. Two percent of global mangrove carbon was lost between 2000 and 2012, equivalent to a maximum potential of 316,996,250 t of CO2 emissions.

  16. Global Gridded Emission Inventories of Pentabrominated Diphenyl Ether (PeBDE)

    Li, Yi-Fan; Tian, Chongguo; Yang, Meng; Jia, Hongliang; Ma, Jianmin; Li, Dacheng

    2010-05-01

    Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are flame retardants widely used in many everyday products such as cars, furniture, textiles, and other electronic equipment. The commercial PBDEs have three major technical mixtures: penta-(PeBDE), octa-(OBDE) and decabromodiphenyl ethers (DeBDE). PeBDE is a mixture of several BDE congeners, such as BDE-47, -99, and -100, and has been included as a new member of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) under the 2009 Stockholm Convention. In order to produce gridded emission inventories of PeBDE on a global scale, information of production, consumption, emission, and physiochemical properties of PeBDE have been searched for published papers, government reports, and internet publications. A methodology to estimate the emissions of PeBDE has been developed and global gridded emission inventories of 2 major congener in PeBDE mixture, BDE-47 and -99, on a 1 degree by 1degree latitude/longitude resolution for 2005 have been compiled. Using these emission inventories as input data, the Canadian Model for Environmental Transport of Organochlorine Pesticides (CanMETOP) model was used to simulate the transport of these chemicals and their concentrations in air were calculated for the year of 2005. The modeled air concentration of BDE-47 and -99 were compared with the monitoring air concentrations of these two congeners in the same year obtained from renowned international/national monitoring programs, such as Global Atmospheric Passive Sampling (GAPS), the Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network (IADN), and the Chinese POPs Soil and Air Monitoring Program (SAMP), and significant correlations between the modeled results and the monitoring data were found, indicating the high quality of the produced emission inventories of BDE-47 and -99. Keywords: Pentabrominated Diphenyl Ether (PeBDE), Emission Inventories, Global, Model

  17. Global climate impacts of country-level primary carbonaceous aerosol from solid-fuel cookstove emissions

    Lacey, Forrest; Henze, Daven

    2015-01-01

    Cookstove use is globally one of the largest unregulated anthropogenic sources of primary carbonaceous aerosol. While reducing cookstove emissions through national-scale mitigation efforts has clear benefits for improving indoor and ambient air quality, and significant climate benefits from reduced green-house gas emissions, climate impacts associated with reductions to co-emitted black (BC) and organic carbonaceous aerosol are not well characterized. Here we attribute direct, indirect, semi-direct, and snow/ice albedo radiative forcing (RF) and associated global surface temperature changes to national-scale carbonaceous aerosol cookstove emissions. These results are made possible through the use of adjoint sensitivity modeling to relate direct RF and BC deposition to emissions. Semi- and indirect effects are included via global scaling factors, and bounds on these estimates are drawn from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. Absolute regional temperature potentials are used to estimate global surface temperature changes. Bounds are placed on these estimates, drawing from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. We estimate a range of 0.16 K warming to 0.28 K cooling with a central estimate of 0.06 K cooling from the removal of cookstove aerosol emissions. At the national emissions scale, countries’ impacts on global climate range from net warming (e.g., Mexico and Brazil) to net cooling, although the range of estimated impacts for all countries span zero given uncertainties in RF estimates and fuel characterization. We identify similarities and differences in the sets of countries with the highest emissions and largest cookstove temperature impacts (China, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal), those with the largest temperature impact per carbon emitted (Kazakhstan, Estonia, and Mongolia), and those that would provide the

  18. Global climate impacts of country-level primary carbonaceous aerosol from solid-fuel cookstove emissions

    Lacey, Forrest; Henze, Daven

    2015-11-01

    Cookstove use is globally one of the largest unregulated anthropogenic sources of primary carbonaceous aerosol. While reducing cookstove emissions through national-scale mitigation efforts has clear benefits for improving indoor and ambient air quality, and significant climate benefits from reduced green-house gas emissions, climate impacts associated with reductions to co-emitted black (BC) and organic carbonaceous aerosol are not well characterized. Here we attribute direct, indirect, semi-direct, and snow/ice albedo radiative forcing (RF) and associated global surface temperature changes to national-scale carbonaceous aerosol cookstove emissions. These results are made possible through the use of adjoint sensitivity modeling to relate direct RF and BC deposition to emissions. Semi- and indirect effects are included via global scaling factors, and bounds on these estimates are drawn from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. Absolute regional temperature potentials are used to estimate global surface temperature changes. Bounds are placed on these estimates, drawing from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. We estimate a range of 0.16 K warming to 0.28 K cooling with a central estimate of 0.06 K cooling from the removal of cookstove aerosol emissions. At the national emissions scale, countries’ impacts on global climate range from net warming (e.g., Mexico and Brazil) to net cooling, although the range of estimated impacts for all countries span zero given uncertainties in RF estimates and fuel characterization. We identify similarities and differences in the sets of countries with the highest emissions and largest cookstove temperature impacts (China, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal), those with the largest temperature impact per carbon emitted (Kazakhstan, Estonia, and Mongolia), and those that would provide the

  19. Global CO_2-energy emissions in 2007. China becomes the largest emitter along with the United States - June 2008

    2008-01-01

    China becomes the largest emitter along with the United States. Contents: 1990-2007 evolution (key figures of Yearly average evolutions); Global CO_2-energy emissions in 2007: 27,3 GtCO_2; Global CO_2-energy emissions have increased by 3,2% in 2007, largely driven by China. Since 1990, China has more than doubled its CO_2-energy emissions, to reach the same emission level as the USA in 2007. Two very contrasting tendencies appear since 1990: stabilization of emissions in Annex B countries, boom in China and India. Since 1990, more than half of CO_2-energy emissions growth is (logically) due to coal. (authors)

  20. A Systematic Review of Global Publication Trends Regarding Long-Term Outcomes of ADHD

    Hodgkins, Paul; Arnold, L. Eugene; Shaw, Monica; Caci, Hervé; Kahle, Jennifer; Woods, Alisa G; Young, Susan

    2012-01-01

    There is increased global recognition of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) as a serious medical condition with long-term consequences. Although originally conceived of as a childhood disorder, ADHD is being increasingly recognized in adults. Individual geographic regions may have specific interests and objectives for the study of ADHD. A systematic review of long-term outcomes (LTOs) in ADHD was conducted to evaluate research on ADHD LTOs on a global scale. Studies that were at least 2 years in duration were examined. A total of 351 studies were identified in the final analysis. We identified nine outcomes of interest and classified studies by specific geographical regions, age groups studied and study design by region and over time. Published studies of LTOs in ADHD have increased in all geographical regions over the past three decades, with a peak number of 42 publications in 2008. This rise in publications on ADHD LTOs may reflect a rise in global interest and recognition of consequences and impairment associated with ADHD. Although many world regions have published on ADHD LTOs, the majority of studies have emerged from the US and Canada, followed by Europe. While investigators in the US and Canada were predominantly interested in drug addiction as a LTO, European researchers were more interested in antisocial behavior, and Eastern Asian investigators focused on both of these LTOs as well as self-esteem. Geographical differences in the focus of ADHD LTO studies may reflect regional variations in cultural values. Proportionally fewer prospective longitudinal studies and proportionally more retrospective and cross-sectional studies have been published in more recent decades. Finally, more studies focusing on ADHD in adolescents and adults have been conducted in recent years, and particularly adolescents in Eastern Asia. These changes in basic study design may reflect an increase in the recognition that ADHD is a lifetime chronic disorder. This

  1. Global Change and Helminth Infections in Grazing Ruminants in Europe: Impacts, Trends and Sustainable Solutions

    Hubertus Hertzberg

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Infections with parasitic helminths (nematodes and trematodes represent a significant economic and welfare burden to the global ruminant livestock industry. The increasing prevalence of anthelmintic resistance means that current control programmes are costly and unsustainable in the long term. Recent changes in the epidemiology, seasonality and geographic distribution of helminth infections have been attributed to climate change. However, other changes in environment (e.g., land use and in livestock farming, such as intensification and altered management practices, will also have an impact on helminth infections. Sustainable control of helminth infections in a changing world requires detailed knowledge of these interactions. In particular, there is a need to devise new, sustainable strategies for the effective control of ruminant helminthoses in the face of global change. In this paper, we consider the impact of helminth infections in grazing ruminants, taking a European perspective, and identify scientific and applied priorities to mitigate these impacts. These include the development and deployment of efficient, high-throughput diagnostic tests to support targeted intervention, modelling of geographic and seasonal trends in infection, more thorough economic data and analysis of the impact of helminth infections and greater translation and involvement of end-users in devising and disseminating best practices. Complex changes in helminth epidemiology will require innovative solutions. By developing and using new technologies and models, the use of anthelmintics can be optimised to limit the development and spread of drug resistance and to reduce the overall economic impact of helminth infections. This will be essential to the continued productivity and profitability of livestock farming in Europe and its contribution to regional and global food security.

  2. A systematic review of global publication trends regarding long-term outcomes of ADHD.

    Hodgkins, Paul; Arnold, L Eugene; Shaw, Monica; Caci, Hervé; Kahle, Jennifer; Woods, Alisa G; Young, Susan

    2011-01-01

    There is increased global recognition of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) as a serious medical condition with long-term consequences. Although originally conceived of as a childhood disorder, ADHD is being increasingly recognized in adults. Individual geographic regions may have specific interests and objectives for the study of ADHD. A systematic review of long-term outcomes (LTOs) in ADHD was conducted to evaluate research on ADHD LTOs on a global scale. Studies that were at least 2 years in duration were examined. A total of 351 studies were identified in the final analysis. We identified nine outcomes of interest and classified studies by specific geographical regions, age groups studied and study design by region and over time. Published studies of LTOs in ADHD have increased in all geographical regions over the past three decades, with a peak number of 42 publications in 2008. This rise in publications on ADHD LTOs may reflect a rise in global interest and recognition of consequences and impairment associated with ADHD. Although many world regions have published on ADHD LTOs, the majority of studies have emerged from the US and Canada, followed by Europe. While investigators in the US and Canada were predominantly interested in drug addiction as a LTO, European researchers were more interested in antisocial behavior, and Eastern Asian investigators focused on both of these LTOs as well as self-esteem. Geographical differences in the focus of ADHD LTO studies may reflect regional variations in cultural values. Proportionally fewer prospective longitudinal studies and proportionally more retrospective and cross-sectional studies have been published in more recent decades. Finally, more studies focusing on ADHD in adolescents and adults have been conducted in recent years, and particularly adolescents in Eastern Asia. These changes in basic study design may reflect an increase in the recognition that ADHD is a lifetime chronic disorder. This

  3. Southward shift of the global wind energy resource under high carbon dioxide emissions

    Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Lundquist, Julie K.; Zhang, Lei

    2018-01-01

    The use of wind energy resource is an integral part of many nations' strategies towards realizing the carbon emissions reduction targets set forth in the Paris Agreement, and global installed wind power cumulative capacity has grown on average by 22% per year since 2006. However, assessments of wind energy resource are usually based on today's climate, rather than taking into account that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions continue to modify the global atmospheric circulation. Here, we apply an industry wind turbi