WorldWideScience

Sample records for global dynamical model

  1. Modelling MIZ dynamics in a global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rynders, Stefanie; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Feltham, Daniel; Nurser, George; Naveira Garabato, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    Exposure of large, previously ice-covered areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface ocean waves results in the Arctic pack ice cover becoming more fragmented and mobile, with large regions of ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). The need for better climate predictions, along with growing economic activity in the Polar Oceans, necessitates climate and forecasting models that can simulate fragmented sea ice with a greater fidelity. Current models are not fully fit for the purpose, since they neither model surface ocean waves in the MIZ, nor account for the effect of floe fragmentation on drag, nor include sea ice rheology that represents both the now thinner pack ice and MIZ ice dynamics. All these processes affect the momentum transfer to the ocean. We present initial results from a global ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) coupled to the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE. The model setup implements a novel rheological formulation for sea ice dynamics, accounting for ice floe collisions, thus offering a seamless framework for pack ice and MIZ simulations. The effect of surface waves on ice motion is included through wave pressure and the turbulent kinetic energy of ice floes. In the multidecadal model integrations we examine MIZ and basin scale sea ice and oceanic responses to the changes in ice dynamics. We analyse model sensitivities and attribute them to key sea ice and ocean dynamical mechanisms. The results suggest that the effect of the new ice rheology is confined to the MIZ. However with the current increase in summer MIZ area, which is projected to continue and may become the dominant type of sea ice in the Arctic, we argue that the effects of the combined sea ice rheology will be noticeable in large areas of the Arctic Ocean, affecting sea ice and ocean. With this study we assert that to make more accurate sea ice predictions in the changing Arctic, models need to include MIZ dynamics and physics.

  2. GLOBAL STABILITY AND PERIODIC SOLUTION OF A VIRAL DYNAMIC MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erhan COŞKUN

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract:In this paper, we consider the classical viral dynamic mathematical model. Global dynamics of the model is rigorously established. We prove that, if the basic reproduction number, the HIV infection is cleared from the T-cell population; if , the HIV infection persists. For an open set of parameter values, the chronic-infection equilibrium can be unstable and periodic solutions may exist. We establish parameter regions for which is globally stable. Keywords: Global stability, HIV infection; CD4+ T cells; Periodic solution Mathematics Subject Classifications (2000: 65L10, 34B05 BİR VİRAL DİNAMİK MODELİN GLOBAL KARARLILIĞI VE PERİYODİK ÇÖZÜMÜ Özet: Bu makalede klasik viral dinamik modeli ele aldık. Modelin global dinamikleri oluşturuldu. Eğer temel üretim sayısı olur ise HIV enfeksiyonu T hücre nüfusundan çıkartılır, eğer olursa HIV enfeksiyonu çıkartılamaz. Parametre değerlerinin açık bir kümesi için kronik enfeksiyon dengesi kararsızdır ve periyodik çözüm oluşabilir. ın global kararlı olduğu parametre bölgeleri oluşturuldu. Anahtar Kelimeler: Global Kararlılık, HIV enfeksiyon, CD4+ T hücreler, Periyodik çözüm

  3. Signal classification using global dynamical models, Part I: Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kadtke, J.; Kremliovsky, M.

    1996-01-01

    Detection and classification of signals is one of the principal areas of signal processing, and the utilization of nonlinear information has long been considered as a way of improving performance beyond standard linear (e.g. spectral) techniques. Here, we develop a method for using global models of chaotic dynamical systems theory to define a signal classification processing chain, which is sensitive to nonlinear correlations in the data. We use it to demonstrate classification in high noise regimes (negative SNR), and argue that classification probabilities can be directly computed from ensemble statistics in the model coefficient space. We also develop a modification for non-stationary signals (i.e. transients) using non-autonomous ODEs. In Part II of this paper, we demonstrate the analysis on actual open ocean acoustic data from marine biologics. copyright 1996 American Institute of Physics

  4. The Dynamic Internationalization Model of Slovenian Born Global SMEs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ina Lejko

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs are important businessactors in the Slovenian, as well as European economy. Inaddition to the current global market conditions, reflecting a severeeconomic downturn, the SMEs in Slovenia and other transitioneconomies operate under additional extensive external pressures,arising from the opening of their domestic markets. Undersuch conditions, companies, including SMEs, perceive internationalizationas an inevitable, or even urgent step in the processof their business operations. However, companies pursue differentpaths in their internationalization efforts, one of them beinga rapid internationalization strategy, denoted as the Born Globalconcept. In the paper, we explore the internationalization processof Slovenian Born Global SMEs. We employ an exploratory qualitativecase study analysis of selected Slovenian SMEs in order tograsp the key characteristics of their internationalization process.On the basis of the latter we construct a dynamic internationalizationmodel that might be used as a conceptual framework forempirical research of dynamic SMEs market behavior in Sloveniaand other transition countries.

  5. Global dynamics of a dengue epidemic mathematical model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cai Liming [Department of Mathematics, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000 (China); Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Academia Sinica, Beijing 100080 (China)], E-mail: lmcai06@yahoo.com.cn; Guo Shumin [Beijing Institute of Information Control, Beijing 100037 (China); Li, XueZhi [Department of Mathematics, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000 (China); Ghosh, Mini [School of Mathematics and Computer Application, Thapar University, Patiala 147004 (India)

    2009-11-30

    The paper investigates the global stability of a dengue epidemic model with saturation and bilinear incidence. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The stability of these two equilibria is controlled by the threshold number R{sub 0}. It is shown that if R{sub 0} is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R{sub 0} is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.

  6. Global dynamics of a dengue epidemic mathematical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai Liming; Guo Shumin; Li, XueZhi; Ghosh, Mini

    2009-01-01

    The paper investigates the global stability of a dengue epidemic model with saturation and bilinear incidence. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The stability of these two equilibria is controlled by the threshold number R 0 . It is shown that if R 0 is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R 0 is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.

  7. Deep HST Imaging in 47 Tucanae: A Global Dynamical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heyl, J.; Caiazzo, I.; Richer, H.; Anderson, J.; Kalirai, J.; Parada, J.

    2017-12-01

    Multi-epoch observations with the Advanced Camera Survey and WFC3 on the Hubble Space Telescope provide a unique and comprehensive probe of stellar dynamics within 47 Tucanae. We confront analytic models of the globular cluster with the observed stellar proper motions that probe along the main sequence from just above 0.8-0.1M ⊙ as well as white dwarfs younger than 1 Gyr. One field lies just beyond the half-light radius where dynamical models (e.g., lowered Maxwellian distributions) make robust predictions for the stellar proper motions. The observed proper motions in this outer field show evidence for anisotropy in the velocity distribution as well as skewness; the latter is evidence of rotation. The measured velocity dispersions and surface brightness distributions agree in detail with a rotating anisotropic model of the stellar distribution function with mild dependence of the proper-motion dispersion on mass. However, the best-fitting models underpredict the rotation and skewness of the stellar velocities. In the second field, centered on the core of the cluster, the mass segregation in proper motion is much stronger. Nevertheless the model developed in the outer field can be extended inward by taking this mass segregation into account in a heuristic fashion. The proper motions of the main-sequence stars yield a mass estimate of the cluster of 1.31+/- 0.02× {10}6{M}⊙ at a distance of 4.7 kpc. By comparing the proper motions of a sample of giant and subgiant stars with the observed radial velocities we estimate the distance to the cluster kinematically to be 4.29 ± 0.47 kpc.

  8. Dynamic global model of oxide Czochralski process with weighing control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamedov, V. M.; Vasiliev, M. G.; Yuferev, V. S.

    2011-03-01

    A dynamic model of oxide Czochralski growth with weighing control has been developed for the first time. A time-dependent approach is used for the calculation of temperature fields in different parts of a crystallization set-up and convection patterns in a melt, while internal radiation in crystal is considered in a quasi-steady approximation. A special algorithm is developed for the calculation of displacement of a triple point and simulation of a crystal surface formation. To calculate variations in the heat generation, a model of weighing control with a commonly used PID regulator is applied. As an example, simulation of the growth process of gallium-gadolinium garnet (GGG) crystals starting from the stage of seeding is performed.

  9. Global Dynamics of Avian Influenza Epidemic Models with Psychological Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanhong Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Cross-sectional surveys conducted in Thailand and China after the outbreaks of the avian influenza A H5N1 and H7N9 viruses show a high degree of awareness of human avian influenza in both urban and rural populations, a higher level of proper hygienic practice among urban residents, and in particular a dramatically reduced number of visits to live markets in urban population after the influenza A H7N9 outbreak in China in 2013. In this paper, taking into account the psychological effect toward avian influenza in the human population, a bird-to-human transmission model in which the avian population exhibits saturation effect is constructed. The dynamical behavior of the model is studied by using the basic reproduction number. The results demonstrate that the saturation effect within avian population and the psychological effect in human population cannot change the stability of equilibria but can affect the number of infected humans if the disease is prevalent. Numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results and sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number in terms of model parameters that are performed to seek for effective control measures for avian influenza.

  10. Global dynamics of avian influenza epidemic models with psychological effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Sanhong; Pang, Liuyong; Ruan, Shigui; Zhang, Xinan

    2015-01-01

    Cross-sectional surveys conducted in Thailand and China after the outbreaks of the avian influenza A H5N1 and H7N9 viruses show a high degree of awareness of human avian influenza in both urban and rural populations, a higher level of proper hygienic practice among urban residents, and in particular a dramatically reduced number of visits to live markets in urban population after the influenza A H7N9 outbreak in China in 2013. In this paper, taking into account the psychological effect toward avian influenza in the human population, a bird-to-human transmission model in which the avian population exhibits saturation effect is constructed. The dynamical behavior of the model is studied by using the basic reproduction number. The results demonstrate that the saturation effect within avian population and the psychological effect in human population cannot change the stability of equilibria but can affect the number of infected humans if the disease is prevalent. Numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results and sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number in terms of model parameters that are performed to seek for effective control measures for avian influenza.

  11. A dynamic globalization model for large eddy simulation of complex turbulent flow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Hae Cheon; Park, No Ma; Kim, Jin Seok [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2005-07-01

    A dynamic subgrid-scale model is proposed for large eddy simulation of turbulent flows in complex geometry. The eddy viscosity model by Vreman [Phys. Fluids, 16, 3670 (2004)] is considered as a base model. A priori tests with the original Vreman model show that it predicts the correct profile of subgrid-scale dissipation in turbulent channel flow but the optimal model coefficient is far from universal. Dynamic procedures of determining the model coefficient are proposed based on the 'global equilibrium' between the subgrid-scale dissipation and viscous dissipation. An important feature of the proposed procedures is that the model coefficient determined is globally constant in space but varies only in time. Large eddy simulations with the present dynamic model are conducted for forced isotropic turbulence, turbulent channel flow and flow over a sphere, showing excellent agreements with previous results.

  12. LPJmL4 - a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land - Part 1: Model description

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaphoff, Sibyll; von Bloh, Werner; Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Biemans, Hester; Forkel, Matthias; Gerten, Dieter; Heinke, Jens; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Knauer, Jürgen; Langerwisch, Fanny; Lucht, Wolfgang; Müller, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne; Waha, Katharina

    2018-04-01

    This paper provides a comprehensive description of the newest version of the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model with managed Land, LPJmL4. This model simulates - internally consistently - the growth and productivity of both natural and agricultural vegetation as coherently linked through their water, carbon, and energy fluxes. These features render LPJmL4 suitable for assessing a broad range of feedbacks within and impacts upon the terrestrial biosphere as increasingly shaped by human activities such as climate change and land use change. Here we describe the core model structure, including recently developed modules now unified in LPJmL4. Thereby, we also review LPJmL model developments and evaluations in the field of permafrost, human and ecological water demand, and improved representation of crop types. We summarize and discuss LPJmL model applications dealing with the impacts of historical and future environmental change on the terrestrial biosphere at regional and global scale and provide a comprehensive overview of LPJmL publications since the first model description in 2007. To demonstrate the main features of the LPJmL4 model, we display reference simulation results for key processes such as the current global distribution of natural and managed ecosystems, their productivities, and associated water fluxes. A thorough evaluation of the model is provided in a companion paper. By making the model source code freely available at https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL" target="_blank">https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL, we hope to stimulate the application and further development of LPJmL4 across scientific communities in support of major activities such as the IPCC and SDG process.

  13. The DTU12MDT global mean dynamic topography and ocean circulation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Per; Andersen, Ole B.

    2013-01-01

    combined with the DTU10MSS mean sea surface model to construct a global mean dynamic topography model named DTU10MDT. The results of analyses clearly demonstrated the value of the GOCE mission. Both the resolution and the estimation of the surface currents have been improved significantly compared...

  14. LPJmL4 - a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land - Part 2: Model evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaphoff, Sibyll; Forkel, Matthias; Müller, Christoph; Knauer, Jürgen; von Bloh, Werner; Gerten, Dieter; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Waha, Katharina

    2018-04-01

    The dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL4 is a process-based model that simulates climate and land use change impacts on the terrestrial biosphere, agricultural production, and the water and carbon cycle. Different versions of the model have been developed and applied to evaluate the role of natural and managed ecosystems in the Earth system and the potential impacts of global environmental change. A comprehensive model description of the new model version, LPJmL4, is provided in a companion paper (Schaphoff et al., 2018c). Here, we provide a full picture of the model performance, going beyond standard benchmark procedures and give hints on the strengths and shortcomings of the model to identify the need for further model improvement. Specifically, we evaluate LPJmL4 against various datasets from in situ measurement sites, satellite observations, and agricultural yield statistics. We apply a range of metrics to evaluate the quality of the model to simulate stocks and flows of carbon and water in natural and managed ecosystems at different temporal and spatial scales. We show that an advanced phenology scheme improves the simulation of seasonal fluctuations in the atmospheric CO2 concentration, while the permafrost scheme improves estimates of carbon stocks. The full LPJmL4 code including the new developments will be supplied open source through https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL" target="_blank">https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL. We hope that this will lead to new model developments and applications that improve the model performance and possibly build up a new understanding of the terrestrial biosphere.

  15. Multivariate sensitivity analysis to measure global contribution of input factors in dynamic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamboni, Matieyendou; Monod, Herve; Makowski, David

    2011-01-01

    Many dynamic models are used for risk assessment and decision support in ecology and crop science. Such models generate time-dependent model predictions, with time either discretised or continuous. Their global sensitivity analysis is usually applied separately on each time output, but Campbell et al. (2006 ) advocated global sensitivity analyses on the expansion of the dynamics in a well-chosen functional basis. This paper focuses on the particular case when principal components analysis is combined with analysis of variance. In addition to the indices associated with the principal components, generalised sensitivity indices are proposed to synthesize the influence of each parameter on the whole time series output. Index definitions are given when the uncertainty on the input factors is either discrete or continuous and when the dynamic model is either discrete or functional. A general estimation algorithm is proposed, based on classical methods of global sensitivity analysis. The method is applied to a dynamic wheat crop model with 13 uncertain parameters. Three methods of global sensitivity analysis are compared: the Sobol'-Saltelli method, the extended FAST method, and the fractional factorial design of resolution 6.

  16. Multivariate sensitivity analysis to measure global contribution of input factors in dynamic models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lamboni, Matieyendou [INRA, Unite MIA (UR341), F78352 Jouy en Josas Cedex (France); Monod, Herve, E-mail: herve.monod@jouy.inra.f [INRA, Unite MIA (UR341), F78352 Jouy en Josas Cedex (France); Makowski, David [INRA, UMR Agronomie INRA/AgroParisTech (UMR 211), BP 01, F78850 Thiverval-Grignon (France)

    2011-04-15

    Many dynamic models are used for risk assessment and decision support in ecology and crop science. Such models generate time-dependent model predictions, with time either discretised or continuous. Their global sensitivity analysis is usually applied separately on each time output, but Campbell et al. (2006) advocated global sensitivity analyses on the expansion of the dynamics in a well-chosen functional basis. This paper focuses on the particular case when principal components analysis is combined with analysis of variance. In addition to the indices associated with the principal components, generalised sensitivity indices are proposed to synthesize the influence of each parameter on the whole time series output. Index definitions are given when the uncertainty on the input factors is either discrete or continuous and when the dynamic model is either discrete or functional. A general estimation algorithm is proposed, based on classical methods of global sensitivity analysis. The method is applied to a dynamic wheat crop model with 13 uncertain parameters. Three methods of global sensitivity analysis are compared: the Sobol'-Saltelli method, the extended FAST method, and the fractional factorial design of resolution 6.

  17. Global attractor and asymptotic dynamics in the Kuramoto model for coupled noisy phase oscillators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giacomin, Giambattista; Pakdaman, Khashayar; Pellegrin, Xavier

    2012-01-01

    We study the dynamics of the large N limit of the Kuramoto model of coupled phase oscillators, subject to white noise. We introduce the notion of shadow inertial manifold and we prove their existence for this model, supporting the fact that the long-term dynamics of this model is finite dimensional. Following this, we prove that the global attractor of this model takes one of two forms. When coupling strength is below a critical value, the global attractor is a single equilibrium point corresponding to an incoherent state. Otherwise, when coupling strength is beyond this critical value, the global attractor is a two-dimensional disc composed of radial trajectories connecting a saddle-point equilibrium (the incoherent state) to an invariant closed curve of locally stable equilibria (partially synchronized state). Our analysis hinges, on the one hand, upon sharp existence and uniqueness results and their consequence for the existence of a global attractor, and, on the other hand, on the study of the dynamics in the vicinity of the incoherent and coherent (or synchronized) equilibria. We prove in particular nonlinear stability of each synchronized equilibrium, and normal hyperbolicity of the set of such equilibria. We explore mathematically and numerically several properties of the global attractor, in particular we discuss the limit of this attractor as noise intensity decreases to zero

  18. Global dynamics in a stoichiometric food chain model with two limiting nutrients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ming; Fan, Meng; Kuang, Yang

    2017-07-01

    Ecological stoichiometry studies the balance of energy and multiple chemical elements in ecological interactions to establish how the nutrient content affect food-web dynamics and nutrient cycling in ecosystems. In this study, we formulate a food chain with two limiting nutrients in the form of a stoichiometric population model. A comprehensive global analysis of the rich dynamics of the targeted model is explored both analytically and numerically. Chaotic dynamic is observed in this simple stoichiometric food chain model and is compared with traditional model without stoichiometry. The detailed comparison reveals that stoichiometry can reduce the parameter space for chaotic dynamics. Our findings also show that decreasing producer production efficiency may have only a small effect on the consumer growth but a more profound impact on the top predator growth. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Global dynamics of a novel multi-group model for computer worms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gong Yong-Wang; Song Yu-Rong; Jiang Guo-Ping

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we study worm dynamics in computer networks composed of many autonomous systems. A novel multi-group SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantined-removed) model is proposed for computer worms by explicitly considering anti-virus measures and the network infrastructure. Then, the basic reproduction number of worm R 0 is derived and the global dynamics of the model are established. It is shown that if R 0 is less than or equal to 1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the worm dies out eventually, whereas, if R 0 is greater than 1, one unique endemic equilibrium exists and it is globally asymptotically stable, thus the worm persists in the network. Finally, numerical simulations are given to illustrate the theoretical results. (general)

  20. Testing the performance of a Dynamic Global Ecosystem Model: Water balance, carbon balance, and vegetation structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucharik, Christopher J.; Foley, Jonathan A.; Delire, Christine; Fisher, Veronica A.; Coe, Michael T.; Lenters, John D.; Young-Molling, Christine; Ramankutty, Navin; Norman, John M.; Gower, Stith T.

    2000-09-01

    While a new class of Dynamic Global Ecosystem Models (DGEMs) has emerged in the past few years as an important tool for describing global biogeochemical cycles and atmosphere-biosphere interactions, these models are still largely untested. Here we analyze the behavior of a new DGEM and compare the results to global-scale observations of water balance, carbon balance, and vegetation structure. In this study, we use version 2 of the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), which includes several major improvements and additions to the prototype model developed by Foley et al. [1996]. IBIS is designed to be a comprehensive model of the terrestrial biosphere; the model represents a wide range of processes, including land surface physics, canopy physiology, plant phenology, vegetation dynamics and competition, and carbon and nutrient cycling. The model generates global simulations of the surface water balance (e.g., runoff), the terrestrial carbon balance (e.g., net primary production, net ecosystem exchange, soil carbon, aboveground and belowground litter, and soil CO2 fluxes), and vegetation structure (e.g., biomass, leaf area index, and vegetation composition). In order to test the performance of the model, we have assembled a wide range of continental and global-scale data, including measurements of river discharge, net primary production, vegetation structure, root biomass, soil carbon, litter carbon, and soil CO2 flux. Using these field data and model results for the contemporary biosphere (1965-1994), our evaluation shows that simulated patterns of runoff, NPP, biomass, leaf area index, soil carbon, and total soil CO2 flux agree reasonably well with measurements that have been compiled from numerous ecosystems. These results also compare favorably to other global model results.

  1. Global dynamics of multi-group SEI animal disease models with indirect transmission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Yi; Cao, Jinde

    2014-01-01

    A challenge to multi-group epidemic models in mathematical epidemiology is the exploration of global dynamics. Here we formulate multi-group SEI animal disease models with indirect transmission via contaminated water. Under biologically motivated assumptions, the basic reproduction number R 0 is derived and established as a sharp threshold that completely determines the global dynamics of the system. In particular, we prove that if R 0 <1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and the disease dies out; whereas if R 0 >1, then the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and thus unique, and the disease persists in all groups. Since the weight matrix for weighted digraphs may be reducible, the afore-mentioned approach is not directly applicable to our model. For the proofs we utilize the classical method of Lyapunov, graph-theoretic results developed recently and a new combinatorial identity. Since the multiple transmission pathways may correspond to the real world, the obtained results are of biological significance and possible generalizations of the model are also discussed

  2. Global sensitivity analysis of a dynamic model for gene expression in Drosophila embryos

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, Gregory D.; Drewell, Robert A.

    2015-01-01

    It is well known that gene regulation is a tightly controlled process in early organismal development. However, the roles of key processes involved in this regulation, such as transcription and translation, are less well understood, and mathematical modeling approaches in this field are still in their infancy. In recent studies, biologists have taken precise measurements of protein and mRNA abundance to determine the relative contributions of key factors involved in regulating protein levels in mammalian cells. We now approach this question from a mathematical modeling perspective. In this study, we use a simple dynamic mathematical model that incorporates terms representing transcription, translation, mRNA and protein decay, and diffusion in an early Drosophila embryo. We perform global sensitivity analyses on this model using various different initial conditions and spatial and temporal outputs. Our results indicate that transcription and translation are often the key parameters to determine protein abundance. This observation is in close agreement with the experimental results from mammalian cells for various initial conditions at particular time points, suggesting that a simple dynamic model can capture the qualitative behavior of a gene. Additionally, we find that parameter sensitivites are temporally dynamic, illustrating the importance of conducting a thorough global sensitivity analysis across multiple time points when analyzing mathematical models of gene regulation. PMID:26157608

  3. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: CONTINUOUS DYNAMIC GRID ADAPTATION IN A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC MODEL: APPLICATION AND REFINEMENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prusa, Joseph

    2012-05-08

    This project had goals of advancing the performance capabilities of the numerical general circulation model EULAG and using it to produce a fully operational atmospheric global climate model (AGCM) that can employ either static or dynamic grid stretching for targeted phenomena. The resulting AGCM combined EULAG's advanced dynamics core with the physics of the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model (CAM). Effort discussed below shows how we improved model performance and tested both EULAG and the coupled CAM-EULAG in several ways to demonstrate the grid stretching and ability to simulate very well a wide range of scales, that is, multi-scale capability. We leveraged our effort through interaction with an international EULAG community that has collectively developed new features and applications of EULAG, which we exploited for our own work summarized here. Overall, the work contributed to over 40 peer- reviewed publications and over 70 conference/workshop/seminar presentations, many of them invited.

  4. Global analysis of dynamical decision-making models through local computation around the hidden saddle.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Trotta

    Full Text Available Bistable dynamical switches are frequently encountered in mathematical modeling of biological systems because binary decisions are at the core of many cellular processes. Bistable switches present two stable steady-states, each of them corresponding to a distinct decision. In response to a transient signal, the system can flip back and forth between these two stable steady-states, switching between both decisions. Understanding which parameters and states affect this switch between stable states may shed light on the mechanisms underlying the decision-making process. Yet, answering such a question involves analyzing the global dynamical (i.e., transient behavior of a nonlinear, possibly high dimensional model. In this paper, we show how a local analysis at a particular equilibrium point of bistable systems is highly relevant to understand the global properties of the switching system. The local analysis is performed at the saddle point, an often disregarded equilibrium point of bistable models but which is shown to be a key ruler of the decision-making process. Results are illustrated on three previously published models of biological switches: two models of apoptosis, the programmed cell death and one model of long-term potentiation, a phenomenon underlying synaptic plasticity.

  5. The Global Nuclear Futures Model: A Dynamic Simulation Tool for Energy Strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bixler, N.E.

    2002-01-01

    The Global Nuclear Futures Model (GNFM) is a dynamic simulation tool that provides an integrated framework to model key aspects of nuclear energy, nuclear materials storage and disposition, global nuclear materials management, and nuclear proliferation risk. It links nuclear energy and other energy shares dynamically to greenhouse gas emissions and twelve other measures of environmental impact. It presents historical data from 1990 to 2000 and extrapolates energy demand through the year 2050. More specifically, it contains separate modules for energy, the nuclear fuel cycle front end, the nuclear fuel cycle back end, defense nuclear materials, environmental impacts, and measures of the potential for nuclear proliferation. It is globally integrated but also breaks out five regions of the world so that environmental impacts and nuclear proliferation concerns can be evaluated on a regional basis. The five regions are the United States of America (USA), The Peoples Republic of China (China), the former Soviet Union (FSU), the OECD nations excluding the USA, and the rest of the world (ROW). (author)

  6. Dynamics of global supply chain and electric power networks: Models, pricing analysis, and computations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsypura, Dmytro

    In this dissertation, I develop a new theoretical framework for the modeling, pricing analysis, and computation of solutions to electric power supply chains with power generators, suppliers, transmission service providers, and the inclusion of consumer demands. In particular, I advocate the application of finite-dimensional variational inequality theory, projected dynamical systems theory, game theory, network theory, and other tools that have been recently proposed for the modeling and analysis of supply chain networks (cf. Nagurney (2006)) to electric power markets. This dissertation contributes to the extant literature on the modeling, analysis, and solution of supply chain networks, including global supply chains, in general, and electric power supply chains, in particular, in the following ways. It develops a theoretical framework for modeling, pricing analysis, and computation of electric power flows/transactions in electric power systems using the rationale for supply chain analysis. The models developed include both static and dynamic ones. The dissertation also adds a new dimension to the methodology of the theory of projected dynamical systems by proving that, irrespective of the speeds of adjustment, the equilibrium of the system remains the same. Finally, I include alternative fuel suppliers, along with their behavior into the supply chain modeling and analysis framework. This dissertation has strong practical implications. In an era in which technology and globalization, coupled with increasing risk and uncertainty, complicate electricity demand and supply within and between nations, the successful management of electric power systems and pricing become increasingly pressing topics with relevance not only for economic prosperity but also national security. This dissertation addresses such related topics by providing models, pricing tools, and algorithms for decentralized electric power supply chains. This dissertation is based heavily on the following

  7. Sequential assimilation of multi-mission dynamical topography into a global finite-element ocean model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Skachko

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on an accurate estimation of ocean circulation via assimilation of satellite measurements of ocean dynamical topography into the global finite-element ocean model (FEOM. The dynamical topography data are derived from a complex analysis of multi-mission altimetry data combined with a referenced earth geoid. The assimilation is split into two parts. First, the mean dynamic topography is adjusted. To this end an adiabatic pressure correction method is used which reduces model divergence from the real evolution. Second, a sequential assimilation technique is applied to improve the representation of thermodynamical processes by assimilating the time varying dynamic topography. A method is used according to which the temperature and salinity are updated following the vertical structure of the first baroclinic mode. It is shown that the method leads to a partially successful assimilation approach reducing the rms difference between the model and data from 16 cm to 2 cm. This improvement of the mean state is accompanied by significant improvement of temporal variability in our analysis. However, it remains suboptimal, showing a tendency in the forecast phase of returning toward a free run without data assimilation. Both the mean difference and standard deviation of the difference between the forecast and observation data are reduced as the result of assimilation.

  8. China's "energy revolution": measuring the status quo, modelling regional dynamics and assessing global impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mischke, Peggy

    As the world's largest economy in transition, China plays a growing role in global energy markets, clean technology deployment and climate change negotiations. The Chinese president Xi Jinping called in June 2014 for an “energy revolution” of the country’s “energy production and consumption habits......, expanded and applied in this regard. The theories underlying this research are stemming from various scientific disciplines, such as energy and power engineering, macro- and energy-economics, and power project finance. Cross-cutting aspects are the harmonization of Chinese and international energy...... top-down and bottom-up global energy planning tools to model future regional dynamics of China's energy sector; and (v) an assessment of electricity generation costs of the first operational concentrated solar power technologies in China. The results of this thesis are relevant for a broad scientific...

  9. Global dynamics of a PDE model for aedes aegypti mosquitoe incorporating female sexual preference

    KAUST Repository

    Parshad, Rana

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we study the long time dynamics of a reaction diffusion system, describing the spread of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which are the primary cause of dengue infection. The system incorporates a control attempt via the sterile insect technique. The model incorporates female mosquitoes sexual preference for wild males over sterile males. We show global existence of strong solution for the system. We then derive uniform estimates to prove the existence of a global attractor in L-2(Omega), for the system. The attractor is shown to be L-infinity(Omega) regular and posess state of extinction, if the injection of sterile males is large enough. We also provide upper bounds on the Hausdorff and fractal dimensions of the attractor.

  10. Dynamics of global vegetation biomass simulated by the integrated Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Thornton, P. E.; Piao, S.; Yang, X.; Truesdale, J. E.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Chini, L. P.; Thomson, A. M.; Hurtt, G. C.; Collins, W.; Edmonds, J.

    2014-12-01

    The global vegetation biomass stores huge amounts of carbon and is thus important to the global carbon budget (Pan et al., 2010). For the past few decades, different observation-based estimates and modeling of biomass in the above- and below-ground vegetation compartments have been comprehensively conducted (Saatchi et al., 2011; Baccini et al., 2012). However, uncertainties still exist, in particular for the simulation of biomass magnitude, tendency, and the response of biomass to climatic conditions and natural and human disturbances. The recently successful coupling of the integrated Earth System Model (iESM) (Di Vittorio et al., 2014; Bond-Lamberty et al., 2014), which links the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), Global Land-use Model (GLM), and Community Earth System Model (CESM), offers a great opportunity to understand the biomass-related dynamics in a fully-coupled natural and human modeling system. In this study, we focus on the systematic analysis and evaluation of the iESM simulated historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) biomass changes and the response of the biomass dynamics to various impact factors, in particular the human-induced Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC). By analyzing the iESM simulations with and without the interactive LULCC feedbacks, we further study how and where the climate feedbacks affect socioeconomic decisions and LULCC, such as to alter vegetation carbon storage. References Pan Y et. al: A large and persistent carbon sink in the World's forests. Science 2011, 333:988-993. Saatchi SS et al: Benchmark map of forest carbon stocks in tropical regions across three continents. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2011, 108:9899-9904. Baccini A et al: Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps. Nature Clim Change 2012, 2:182-185. Di Vittorio AV et al: From land use to land cover: restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment-earth system model and the implications for

  11. Vorticity-divergence semi-Lagrangian global atmospheric model SL-AV20: dynamical core

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolstykh, Mikhail; Shashkin, Vladimir; Fadeev, Rostislav; Goyman, Gordey

    2017-05-01

    SL-AV (semi-Lagrangian, based on the absolute vorticity equation) is a global hydrostatic atmospheric model. Its latest version, SL-AV20, provides global operational medium-range weather forecast with 20 km resolution over Russia. The lower-resolution configurations of SL-AV20 are being tested for seasonal prediction and climate modeling. The article presents the model dynamical core. Its main features are a vorticity-divergence formulation at the unstaggered grid, high-order finite-difference approximations, semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit discretization and the reduced latitude-longitude grid with variable resolution in latitude. The accuracy of SL-AV20 numerical solutions using a reduced lat-lon grid and the variable resolution in latitude is tested with two idealized test cases. Accuracy and stability of SL-AV20 in the presence of the orography forcing are tested using the mountain-induced Rossby wave test case. The results of all three tests are in good agreement with other published model solutions. It is shown that the use of the reduced grid does not significantly affect the accuracy up to the 25 % reduction in the number of grid points with respect to the regular grid. Variable resolution in latitude allows us to improve the accuracy of a solution in the region of interest.

  12. Local and global dynamics of Ramsey model: From continuous to discrete time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzowska, Malgorzata; Michetti, Elisabetta

    2018-05-01

    The choice of time as a discrete or continuous variable may radically affect equilibrium stability in an endogenous growth model with durable consumption. In the continuous-time Ramsey model [F. P. Ramsey, Econ. J. 38(152), 543-559 (1928)], the steady state is locally saddle-path stable with monotonic convergence. However, in the discrete-time version, the steady state may be unstable or saddle-path stable with monotonic or oscillatory convergence or periodic solutions [see R.-A. Dana et al., Handbook on Optimal Growth 1 (Springer, 2006) and G. Sorger, Working Paper No. 1505 (2015)]. When this occurs, the discrete-time counterpart of the continuous-time model is not consistent with the initial framework. In order to obtain a discrete-time Ramsey model preserving the main properties of the continuous-time counterpart, we use a general backward and forward discretisation as initially proposed by Bosi and Ragot [Theor. Econ. Lett. 2(1), 10-15 (2012)]. The main result of the study here presented is that, with this hybrid discretisation method, fixed points and local dynamics do not change. For what it concerns global dynamics, i.e., long-run behavior for initial conditions taken on the state space, we mainly perform numerical analysis with the main scope of comparing both qualitative and quantitative evolution of the two systems, also varying some parameters of interest.

  13. WHO WOULD EAT IN A WORLD WITHOUT PHOSPHORUS? A GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumas, M.

    2009-12-01

    Phosphorus is an indispensable and non-substitutable resource, as agriculture is impossible if soils do not hold adequate amounts of this nutrient. Phosphorus is also considered to be a non-renewable and increasingly scarce resource, as phosphate rock reserves - as one measure of availability amongst others - are estimated to last for 50 to 100 years at current rates of consumption. How would food production decline in different parts of the world in the scenario of a sudden shortage in phosphorus? To answer this question and explore management scenarios, I present a probabilistic model of the structure and dynamics of the global P cycle in the world’s agro-ecosystems. The model proposes an original solution to the challenge of capturing the large-scale aggregate dynamics of multiple micro-scale soil cycling processes. Furthermore, it integrates the essential natural processes with a model of human-managed flows, thereby bringing together several decades of research and measurements from soil science, plant nutrition and long-term agricultural experiments from around the globe. In this paper, I present the model, the first simulation results and the implications for long-term sustainable management of phosphorus and soil fertility.

  14. The Effects of Time Lag and Cure Rate on the Global Dynamics of HIV-1 Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigar Ali

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this research article, a new mathematical model of delayed differential equations is developed which discusses the interaction among CD4 T cells, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV, and recombinant virus with cure rate. The model has two distributed intracellular delays. These delays denote the time needed for the infection of a cell. The dynamics of the model are completely described by the basic reproduction numbers represented by R0, R1, and R2. It is shown that if R0<1, then the infection-free equilibrium is locally as well as globally stable. Similarly, it is proved that the recombinant absent equilibrium is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable if 1

  15. Detailed Urban Heat Island Projections for Cities Worldwide: Dynamical Downscaling CMIP5 Global Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Lauwaet

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A new dynamical downscaling methodology to analyze the impact of global climate change on the local climate of cities worldwide is presented. The urban boundary layer climate model UrbClim is coupled to 11 global climate models contained in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 archive, conducting 20-year simulations for present (1986–2005 and future (2081–2100 climate conditions, considering the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario. The evolution of the urban heat island of eight different cities, located on three continents, is quantified and assessed, with an unprecedented horizontal resolution of a few hundred meters. For all cities, urban and rural air temperatures are found to increase strongly, up to 7 °C. However, the urban heat island intensity in most cases increases only slightly, often even below the range of uncertainty. A potential explanation, focusing on the role of increased incoming longwave radiation, is put forth. Finally, an alternative method for generating urban climate projections is proposed, combining the ensemble temperature change statistics and the results of the present-day urban climate.

  16. Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, G.; Bartlein, P. J.

    2012-01-01

    Water balance models of simple structure are easier to grasp and more clearly connect cause and effect than models of complex structure. Such models are essential for studying large spatial scale land surface water balance in the context of climate and land cover change, both natural and anthropogenic. This study aims to (i) develop a large spatial scale water balance model by modifying a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), and (ii) test the model's performance in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture and surface runoff for the coterminous United States (US). Toward these ends, we first introduced development of the "LPJ-Hydrology" (LH) model by incorporating satellite-based land covers into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM instead of dynamically simulating them. We then ran LH using historical (1982-2006) climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells. The simulated ET, soil moisture and surface runoff were compared to existing sets of observed or simulated data for the US. The results indicated that LH captures well the variation of monthly actual ET (R2 = 0.61, p 0.46, p 0.52) with observed values over the years 1982-2006, respectively. The modeled spatial patterns of annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data. Compared to its predecessor, LH simulates better monthly stream flow in winter and early spring by incorporating effects of solar radiation on snowmelt. Overall, this study proves the feasibility of incorporating satellite-based land-covers into a DGVM for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance. LH developed in this study should be a useful tool for studying effects of climate and land cover change on land surface hydrology at large spatial scales.

  17. Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.

    2014-06-01

    In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable detail on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). With global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector in the range of 128-171 EJ across the four scenarios, global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of non-methane total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM) in the year 2030. At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two

  18. A dynamic global-coefficient mixed subgrid-scale model for large-eddy simulation of turbulent flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Satbir; You, Donghyun

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► A new SGS model is developed for LES of turbulent flows in complex geometries. ► A dynamic global-coefficient SGS model is coupled with a scale-similarity model. ► Overcome some of difficulties associated with eddy-viscosity closures. ► Does not require averaging or clipping of the model coefficient for stabilization. ► The predictive capability is demonstrated in a number of turbulent flow simulations. -- Abstract: A dynamic global-coefficient mixed subgrid-scale eddy-viscosity model for large-eddy simulation of turbulent flows in complex geometries is developed. In the present model, the subgrid-scale stress is decomposed into the modified Leonard stress, cross stress, and subgrid-scale Reynolds stress. The modified Leonard stress is explicitly computed assuming a scale similarity, while the cross stress and the subgrid-scale Reynolds stress are modeled using the global-coefficient eddy-viscosity model. The model coefficient is determined by a dynamic procedure based on the global-equilibrium between the subgrid-scale dissipation and the viscous dissipation. The new model relieves some of the difficulties associated with an eddy-viscosity closure, such as the nonalignment of the principal axes of the subgrid-scale stress tensor and the strain rate tensor and the anisotropy of turbulent flow fields, while, like other dynamic global-coefficient models, it does not require averaging or clipping of the model coefficient for numerical stabilization. The combination of the global-coefficient eddy-viscosity model and a scale-similarity model is demonstrated to produce improved predictions in a number of turbulent flow simulations

  19. A global mean ocean circulation estimation using goce gravity models - the DTU12MDT mean dynamic topography model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Per; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2012-01-01

    The Gravity and Ocean Circulation Experiment - GOCE satellite mission measure the Earth gravity field with unprecedented accuracy leading to substantial improvements in the modelling of the ocean circulation and transport. In this study of the performance of GOCE, a newer gravity model have been...... combined with the DTU10MSS mean sea surface model to construct a global mean dynamic topography model named DTU10MDT. The results of preliminary analyses using preliminary GOCE gravity models clearly demonstrated the potential of GOCE mission. Both the resolution and the estimation of the surface currents...... have been improved significantly compared to results obtained using pre-GOCE gravity field models. The results of this study show that geostrophic surface currents associated with the mean circulation have been further improved and that currents having speeds down to 5 cm/s have been recovered....

  20. Evaluation of the New Dynamic Global Vegetation Model in CAS-ESM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jiawen; Zeng, Xiaodong; Zhang, Minghua; Dai, Yongjiu; Ji, Duoying; Li, Fang; Zhang, Qian; Zhang, He; Song, Xiang

    2018-06-01

    In the past several decades, dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have been the most widely used and appropriate tool at the global scale to investigate vegetation-climate interactions. At the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, a new version of DGVM (IAP-DGVM) has been developed and coupled to the Common Land Model (CoLM) within the framework of the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Earth System Model (CAS-ESM). This work reports the performance of IAP-DGVM through comparisons with that of the default DGVM of CoLM (CoLM-DGVM) and observations. With respect to CoLMDGVM, IAP-DGVM simulated fewer tropical trees, more "needleleaf evergreen boreal tree" and "broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub", and a better representation of grasses. These contributed to a more realistic vegetation distribution in IAP-DGVM, including spatial patterns, total areas, and compositions. Moreover, IAP-DGVM also produced more accurate carbon fluxes than CoLM-DGVM when compared with observational estimates. Gross primary productivity and net primary production in IAP-DGVM were in better agreement with observations than those of CoLM-DGVM, and the tropical pattern of fire carbon emissions in IAP-DGVM was much more consistent with the observation than that in CoLM-DGVM. The leaf area index simulated by IAP-DGVM was closer to the observation than that of CoLM-DGVM; however, both simulated values about twice as large as in the observation. This evaluation provides valuable information for the application of CAS-ESM, as well as for other model communities in terms of a comparative benchmark.

  1. Automatic, Global and Dynamic Student Modeling in a Ubiquitous Learning Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabine Graf

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Ubiquitous learning allows students to learn at any time and any place. Adaptivity plays an important role in ubiquitous learning, aiming at providing students with adaptive and personalized learning material, activities, and information at the right place and the right time. However, for providing rich adaptivity, the student model needs to be able to gather a variety of information about the students. In this paper, an automatic, global, and dynamic student modeling approach is introduced, which aims at identifying and frequently updating information about students’ progress, learning styles, interests and knowledge level, problem solving abilities, preferences for using the system, social connectivity, and current location. This information is gathered in an automatic way, using students’ behavior and actions in different learning situations provided by different components/services of the ubiquitous learning environment. By providing a comprehensive student model, students can be supported by rich adaptivity in every component/service of the learning environment. Furthermore, the information in the student model can help in giving teachers a better understanding about the students’ learning process.

  2. Dynamic Global Currency Hedging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; Varneskov, Rasmus T.

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes a model for discrete-time hedging based on continuous-time movements in portfolio and foreign currency exchange rate returns. In particular, the vector of optimal currency exposures is shown to be given by the negative realized regression coefficients from a one......-period conditional expectation of the intra-period quadratic covariation matrix for portfolio and foreign exchange rate returns. These are labelled the realized currency betas. The model, hence, facilitates dynamic hedging strategies that depend exclusively on the dynamic evolution of the ex-post quadratic...... covariation matrix. These hedging strategies are suggested implemented using modern, yet simple, non-parametric techniques to accurately measure and dynamically model historical quadratic covariation matrices. The empirical results from an extensive hedging exercise for equity investments illustrate...

  3. Late Miocene Pacific plate kinematic change explained with coupled global models of mantle and lithosphere dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stotz, I. L.; Iaffaldano, G.; Davies, D. R.

    2017-07-01

    The timing and magnitude of a Pacific plate motion change within the past 10 Ma remains enigmatic, due to the noise associated with finite-rotation data. Nonetheless, it has been hypothesized that this change was driven by the arrival of the Ontong Java Plateau (OJP) at the Melanesian arc and the consequent subduction polarity reversal. The uncertainties associated with the timing of this event, however, make it difficult to quantitatively demonstrate a dynamical association. Here, we first reconstruct the Pacific plate's absolute motion since the mid-Miocene (15 Ma), at high-temporal resolution, building on previous efforts to mitigate the impact of finite-rotation data noise. We find that the largest change in Pacific plate-motion direction occurred between 10 and 5 Ma, with the plate rotating clockwise. We subsequently develop and use coupled global numerical models of the mantle/lithosphere system to test hypotheses on the dynamics driving this change. These indicate that the arrival of the OJP at the Melanesian arc, between 10 and 5 Ma, followed by a subduction polarity reversal that marked the initiation of subduction of the Australian plate underneath the Pacific realm, were the key drivers of this kinematic change.

  4. Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, G.; Bartlein, P. J.

    2012-08-01

    Satellite-based data, such as vegetation type and fractional vegetation cover, are widely used in hydrologic models to prescribe the vegetation state in a study region. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM) simulate land surface hydrology. Incorporation of satellite-based data into a DGVM may enhance a model's ability to simulate land surface hydrology by reducing the task of model parameterization and providing distributed information on land characteristics. The objectives of this study are to (i) modify a DGVM for simulating land surface water balances; (ii) evaluate the modified model in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture, and surface runoff at regional or watershed scales; and (iii) gain insight into the ability of both the original and modified model to simulate large spatial scale land surface hydrology. To achieve these objectives, we introduce the "LPJ-hydrology" (LH) model which incorporates satellite-based data into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM. To evaluate the model we ran LH using historical (1981-2006) climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells for the conterminous US and for the entire world using coarser climate and land cover data. We evaluated the simulated ET, soil moisture, and surface runoff using a set of observed or simulated data at different spatial scales. Our results demonstrate that spatial patterns of LH-simulated annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data for the US; LH-modeled monthly stream flow for 12 major rivers in the US was consistent with observed values respectively during the years 1981-2006 (R2 > 0.46, p 0.52). The modeled mean annual discharges for 10 major rivers worldwide also agreed well (differences day method for snowmelt computation, the addition of the solar radiation effect on snowmelt enabled LH to better simulate monthly stream flow in winter and early spring for rivers located at mid-to-high latitudes. In addition, LH-modeled

  5. Syndromes of the global water crisis - exploring the emergent dynamics through socio-hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuil, Linda; Levy, Morgan; Pavao-Zuckerman, Mitch; Penny, Gopal; Scott, Christopher; Srinivasan, Veena; Thompson, Sally; Troy, Tara

    2014-05-01

    agency components of the model are central to the model structure, thereby accounting for the co-evolutionary nature of human-water systems. Second, the model is designed to be general and integrative aimed at the simulation of emergent qualitative dynamics of the human-water system. The explicit inclusion of feedbacks and the aim of the model to capture the general dynamics as opposed to case-specific trajectories will allow us to deepen our fundamental understanding of the causal pathways leading to water crises across multiple locations. All authors contributed equally to this work. Srinivasan, V., Lambin, E.F., Gorelick, S.M., Thompson, B.H., Rozelle, S., 2012. The nature and causes of the global water crisis: Syndromes from a meta-analysis of coupled human-water studies. Water Resources Research 48(10), doi:10.1029/2011WR011087

  6. Global Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Luo, Albert

    2012-01-01

    Global Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamics collects chapters on recent developments in global analysis of non-linear dynamical systems with a particular emphasis on cell mapping methods developed by Professor C.S. Hsu of the University of California, Berkeley. This collection of contributions prepared by a diverse group of internationally recognized researchers is intended to stimulate interests in global analysis of complex and high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems, whose global properties are largely unexplored at this time. This book also: Presents recent developments in global analysis of non-linear dynamical systems Provides in-depth considerations and extensions of cell mapping methods Adopts an inclusive style accessible to non-specialists and graduate students Global Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamics is an ideal reference for the community of nonlinear dynamics in different disciplines including engineering, applied mathematics, meteorology, life science, computational science, and medicine.  

  7. Jupiter Thermospheric General Circulation Model (JTGCM): Global Structure and Dynamics Driven by Auroral and Joule Heating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bougher, S. W.; J. Il. Waite, Jr.; Majeed, T.

    2005-01-01

    A growing multispectral database plus recent Galileo descent measurements are being used to construct a self-consistent picture of the Jupiter thermosphere/ionosphere system. The proper characterization of Jupiter s upper atmosphere, embedded ionosphere, and auroral features requires the examination of underlying processes, including the feedbacks of energetics, neutral-ion dynamics, composition, and magnetospheric coupling. A fully 3-D Jupiter Thermospheric General Circulation Model (JTGCM) has been developed and exercised to address global temperatures, three-component neutral winds, and neutral-ion species distributions. The domain of this JTGCM extends from 20-microbar (capturing hydrocarbon cooling) to 1.0 x 10(exp -4) nbar (including aurora/Joule heating processes). The resulting JTGCM has been fully spun-up and integrated for greater than or equal to40 Jupiter rotations. Results from three JTGCM cases incorporating moderate auroral heating, ion drag, and moderate to strong Joule heating processes are presented. The neutral horizontal winds at ionospheric heights vary from 0.5 km/s to 1.2 km/s, atomic hydrogen is transported equatorward, and auroral exospheric temperatures range from approx.1200-1300 K to above 3000 K, depending on the magnitude of Joule heating. The equatorial temperature profiles from the JTGCM are compared with the measured temperature structure from the Galileo AS1 data set. The best fit to the Galileo data implies that the major energy source for maintaining the equatorial temperatures is due to dynamical heating induced by the low-latitude convergence of the high-latitude-driven thermospheric circulation. Overall, the Jupiter thermosphere/ionosphere system is highly variable and is shown to be strongly dependent on magnetospheric coupling which regulates Joule heating.

  8. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  9. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: CONTINUOUS DYNAMIC GRID ADAPTATION IN A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC MODEL: APPLICATION AND REFINEMENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gutowski, William J.; Prusa, Joseph M.; Smolarkiewicz, Piotr K.

    2012-05-08

    This project had goals of advancing the performance capabilities of the numerical general circulation model EULAG and using it to produce a fully operational atmospheric global climate model (AGCM) that can employ either static or dynamic grid stretching for targeted phenomena. The resulting AGCM combined EULAG's advanced dynamics core with the "physics" of the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model (CAM). Effort discussed below shows how we improved model performance and tested both EULAG and the coupled CAM-EULAG in several ways to demonstrate the grid stretching and ability to simulate very well a wide range of scales, that is, multi-scale capability. We leveraged our effort through interaction with an international EULAG community that has collectively developed new features and applications of EULAG, which we exploited for our own work summarized here. Overall, the work contributed to over 40 peer-reviewed publications and over 70 conference/workshop/seminar presentations, many of them invited. 3a. EULAG Advances EULAG is a non-hydrostatic, parallel computational model for all-scale geophysical flows. EULAG's name derives from its two computational options: EULerian (flux form) or semi-LAGrangian (advective form). The model combines nonoscillatory forward-in-time (NFT) numerical algorithms with a robust elliptic Krylov solver. A signature feature of EULAG is that it is formulated in generalized time-dependent curvilinear coordinates. In particular, this enables grid adaptivity. In total, these features give EULAG novel advantages over many existing dynamical cores. For EULAG itself, numerical advances included refining boundary conditions and filters for optimizing model performance in polar regions. We also added flexibility to the model's underlying formulation, allowing it to work with the pseudo-compressible equation set of Durran in addition to EULAG's standard anelastic formulation. Work in collaboration with others also extended the

  10. Global ice sheet modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, T.J.; Fastook, J.L.

    1994-05-01

    The University of Maine conducted this study for Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate modeling task for site characterization of the potential nuclear waste respository site at Yucca Mountain, NV. The purpose of the study was to develop a global ice sheet dynamics model that will forecast the three-dimensional configuration of global ice sheets for specific climate change scenarios. The objective of the third (final) year of the work was to produce ice sheet data for glaciation scenarios covering the next 100,000 years. This was accomplished using both the map-plane and flowband solutions of our time-dependent, finite-element gridpoint model. The theory and equations used to develop the ice sheet models are presented. Three future scenarios were simulated by the model and results are discussed

  11. Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Tang

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Satellite-based data, such as vegetation type and fractional vegetation cover, are widely used in hydrologic models to prescribe the vegetation state in a study region. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM simulate land surface hydrology. Incorporation of satellite-based data into a DGVM may enhance a model's ability to simulate land surface hydrology by reducing the task of model parameterization and providing distributed information on land characteristics. The objectives of this study are to (i modify a DGVM for simulating land surface water balances; (ii evaluate the modified model in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET, soil moisture, and surface runoff at regional or watershed scales; and (iii gain insight into the ability of both the original and modified model to simulate large spatial scale land surface hydrology. To achieve these objectives, we introduce the "LPJ-hydrology" (LH model which incorporates satellite-based data into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ DGVM. To evaluate the model we ran LH using historical (1981–2006 climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells for the conterminous US and for the entire world using coarser climate and land cover data. We evaluated the simulated ET, soil moisture, and surface runoff using a set of observed or simulated data at different spatial scales. Our results demonstrate that spatial patterns of LH-simulated annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data for the US; LH-modeled monthly stream flow for 12 major rivers in the US was consistent with observed values respectively during the years 1981–2006 (R2 > 0.46, p < 0.01; Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient > 0.52. The modeled mean annual discharges for 10 major rivers worldwide also agreed well (differences < 15% with observed values for these rivers. Compared to a degree-day method for snowmelt computation, the addition of the solar radiation effect on snowmelt

  12. Modeling vegetation and carbon dynamics of managed grasslands at the global scale with LPJmL 3.6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolinski, Susanne; Müller, Christoph; Heinke, Jens; Weindl, Isabelle; Biewald, Anne; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bondeau, Alberte; Boons-Prins, Eltje R.; Bouwman, Alexander F.; Leffelaar, Peter A.; te Roller, Johnny A.; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Thonicke, Kirsten

    2018-02-01

    Grassland management affects the carbon fluxes of one-third of the global land area and is thus an important factor for the global carbon budget. Nonetheless, this aspect has been largely neglected or underrepresented in global carbon cycle models. We investigate four harvesting schemes for the managed grassland implementation of the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL) that facilitate a better representation of actual management systems globally. We describe the model implementation and analyze simulation results with respect to harvest, net primary productivity and soil carbon content and by evaluating them against reported grass yields in Europe. We demonstrate the importance of accounting for differences in grassland management by assessing potential livestock grazing densities as well as the impacts of grazing, grazing intensities and mowing systems on soil carbon stocks. Grazing leads to soil carbon losses in polar or arid regions even at moderate livestock densities (management options enables assessments of the global grassland production and its impact on the terrestrial biogeochemical cycles but requires a global data set on current grassland management.

  13. Implications of introducing realistic fire response traits in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, D.; Harrison, S. P.; Prentice, I. C.

    2013-12-01

    Bark thickness is a key trait protecting woody plants against fire damage, while the ability to resprout is a trait that confers competitive advantage over non-resprouting individuals in fire-prone landscapes. Neither trait is well represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we describe a version of the Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX-Mv1) DGVM that incorporates both of these traits in a realistic way. From a synthesis of a large number of field studies, we show there is considerable innate variability in bark thickness between species within a plant-functional type (PFT). Furthermore, bark thickness is an adaptive trait at ecosystem level, increasing with fire frequency. We use the data to specify the range of bark thicknesses characteristic of each model PFT. We allow this distribution to change dynamically: thinner-barked trees are killed preferentially by fire, shifting the distribution of bark thicknesses represented in a model grid cell. We use the PFT-specific bark-thickness probability range for saplings during re-establishment. Since it is rare to destroy all trees in a grid cell, this treatment results in average bark thickness increasing with fire frequency and intensity. Resprouting is a prominent adaptation of temperate and tropical trees in fire-prone areas. The ability to resprout from above-ground tissue (apical or epicormic resprouting) results in the fastest recovery of total biomass after disturbance; resprouting from basal or below-ground meristems results in slower recovery, while non-resprouting species must regenerate from seed and therefore take the longest time to recover. Our analyses show that resprouting species have thicker bark than non-resprouting species. Investment in resprouting is accompanied by reduced efficacy of regeneration from seed. We introduce resprouting PFTs in LPX-Mv1 by specifying an appropriate range of bark thickness, allowing resprouters to survive fire and regenerate vegetatively in

  14. Global sensitivity analysis for an integrated model for simulation of nitrogen dynamics under the irrigation with treated wastewater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Huaiwei; Zhu, Yan; Yang, Jinzhong; Wang, Xiugui

    2015-11-01

    As the amount of water resources that can be utilized for agricultural production is limited, the reuse of treated wastewater (TWW) for irrigation is a practical solution to alleviate the water crisis in China. The process-based models, which estimate nitrogen dynamics under irrigation, are widely used to investigate the best irrigation and fertilization management practices in developed and developing countries. However, for modeling such a complex system for wastewater reuse, it is critical to conduct a sensitivity analysis to determine numerous input parameters and their interactions that contribute most to the variance of the model output for the development of process-based model. In this study, application of a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for nitrogen dynamics was reported. The objective was to compare different global sensitivity analysis (GSA) on the key parameters for different model predictions of nitrogen and crop growth modules. The analysis was performed as two steps. Firstly, Morris screening method, which is one of the most commonly used screening method, was carried out to select the top affected parameters; then, a variance-based global sensitivity analysis method (extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, EFAST) was used to investigate more thoroughly the effects of selected parameters on model predictions. The results of GSA showed that strong parameter interactions exist in crop nitrogen uptake, nitrogen denitrification, crop yield, and evapotranspiration modules. Among all parameters, one of the soil physical-related parameters named as the van Genuchten air entry parameter showed the largest sensitivity effects on major model predictions. These results verified that more effort should be focused on quantifying soil parameters for more accurate model predictions in nitrogen- and crop-related predictions, and stress the need to better calibrate the model in a global sense. This study demonstrates the advantages of the GSA on a

  15. Evaluation of global continental hydrology as simulated by the Land-surface Processes and eXchanges Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Murray

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Global freshwater resources are sensitive to changes in climate, land cover and population density and distribution. The Land-surface Processes and eXchanges Dynamic Global Vegetation Model is a recent development of the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model with improved representation of fire-vegetation interactions. It allows simultaneous consideration of the effects of changes in climate, CO2 concentration, natural vegetation and fire regime shifts on the continental hydrological cycle. Here the model is assessed for its ability to simulate large-scale spatial and temporal runoff patterns, in order to test its suitability for modelling future global water resources. Comparisons are made against observations of streamflow and a composite dataset of modelled and observed runoff (1986–1995 and are also evaluated against soil moisture data and the Palmer Drought Severity Index. The model captures the main features of the geographical distribution of global runoff, but tends to overestimate runoff in much of the Northern Hemisphere (where this can be somewhat accounted for by freshwater consumption and the unrealistic accumulation of the simulated winter snowpack in permafrost regions and the southern tropics. Interannual variability is represented reasonably well at the large catchment scale, as are seasonal flow timings and monthly high and low flow events. Further improvements to the simulation of intra-annual runoff might be achieved via the addition of river flow routing. Overestimates of runoff in some basins could likely be corrected by the inclusion of transmission losses and direct-channel evaporation.

  16. An improved empirical dynamic control system model of global mean sea level rise and surface temperature change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qing; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tkalich, Pavel; Chen, Ge

    2018-04-01

    Having great impacts on human lives, global warming and associated sea level rise are believed to be strongly linked to anthropogenic causes. Statistical approach offers a simple and yet conceptually verifiable combination of remotely connected climate variables and indices, including sea level and surface temperature. We propose an improved statistical reconstruction model based on the empirical dynamic control system by taking into account the climate variability and deriving parameters from Monte Carlo cross-validation random experiments. For the historic data from 1880 to 2001, we yielded higher correlation results compared to those from other dynamic empirical models. The averaged root mean square errors are reduced in both reconstructed fields, namely, the global mean surface temperature (by 24-37%) and the global mean sea level (by 5-25%). Our model is also more robust as it notably diminished the unstable problem associated with varying initial values. Such results suggest that the model not only enhances significantly the global mean reconstructions of temperature and sea level but also may have a potential to improve future projections.

  17. Global optimization of proteins using a dynamical lattice model: Ground states and energy landscapes

    OpenAIRE

    Dressel, F.; Kobe, S.

    2004-01-01

    A simple approach is proposed to investigate the protein structure. Using a low complexity model, a simple pairwise interaction and the concept of global optimization, we are able to calculate ground states of proteins, which are in agreement with experimental data. All possible model structures of small proteins are available below a certain energy threshold. The exact lowenergy landscapes for the trp cage protein (1L2Y) is presented showing the connectivity of all states and energy barriers.

  18. Application Of Global Sensitivity Analysis And Uncertainty Quantification In Dynamic Modelling Of Micropollutants In Stormwater Runoff

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2012-01-01

    of uncertainty in a conceptual lumped dynamic stormwater runoff quality model that is used in a study catchment to estimate (i) copper loads, (ii) compliance with dissolved Cu concentration limits on stormwater discharge and (iii) the fraction of Cu loads potentially intercepted by a planned treatment facility...

  19. Is There Really a Global Business Cycle? : A Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Factor Selection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T. Berger (Tino); L.C.G. Pozzi (Lorenzo)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractWe investigate the presence of international business cycles in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, investment) using a panel of 60 countries over the period 1961-2014. The paper presents a Bayesian stochastic factor selection approach for dynamic factor models with

  20. Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heesterbeek, Hans; Anderson, Roy; Andreasen, Viggo

    2015-01-01

    The spread of infectious diseases can be unpredictable. With the emergence of antibiotic resistance and worrying new viruses, and with ambitious plans for global eradication of polio and the elimination of malaria, the stakes have never been higher. Anticipation and measurement of the multiple fa...... models used in epidemiology and how these can be harnessed to develop successful control strategies and inform public health policy...

  1. Scientific Final Report: COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: CONTINUOUS DYNAMIC GRID ADAPTATION IN A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC MODEL: APPLICATION AND REFINEMENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    William J. Gutowski; Joseph M. Prusa, Piotr K. Smolarkiewicz

    2012-04-09

    This project had goals of advancing the performance capabilities of the numerical general circulation model EULAG and using it to produce a fully operational atmospheric global climate model (AGCM) that can employ either static or dynamic grid stretching for targeted phenomena. The resulting AGCM combined EULAG's advanced dynamics core with the 'physics' of the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model (CAM). Effort discussed below shows how we improved model performance and tested both EULAG and the coupled CAM-EULAG in several ways to demonstrate the grid stretching and ability to simulate very well a wide range of scales, that is, multi-scale capability. We leveraged our effort through interaction with an international EULAG community that has collectively developed new features and applications of EULAG, which we exploited for our own work summarized here. Overall, the work contributed to over 40 peer-reviewed publications and over 70 conference/workshop/seminar presentations, many of them invited.

  2. Evaluation of rainfall simulations over West Africa in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 global circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akinsanola, A. A.; Ajayi, V. O.; Adejare, A. T.; Adeyeri, O. E.; Gbode, I. E.; Ogunjobi, K. O.; Nikulin, G.; Abolude, A. T.

    2018-04-01

    This study presents evaluation of the ability of Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4) driven by nine global circulation models (GCMs), to skilfully reproduce the key features of rainfall climatology over West Africa for the period of 1980-2005. The seasonal climatology and annual cycle of the RCA4 simulations were assessed over three homogenous subregions of West Africa (Guinea coast, Savannah, and Sahel) and evaluated using observed precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Furthermore, the model output was evaluated using a wide range of statistical measures. The interseasonal and interannual variability of the RCA4 were further assessed over the subregions and the whole of the West Africa domain. Results indicate that the RCA4 captures the spatial and interseasonal rainfall pattern adequately but exhibits a weak performance over the Guinea coast. Findings from the interannual rainfall variability indicate that the model performance is better over the larger West Africa domain than the subregions. The largest difference across the RCA4 simulated annual rainfall was found in the Sahel. Result from the Mann-Kendall test showed no significant trend for the 1980-2005 period in annual rainfall either in GPCP observation data or in the model simulations over West Africa. In many aspects, the RCA4 simulation driven by the HadGEM2-ES perform best over the region. The use of the multimodel ensemble mean has resulted to the improved representation of rainfall characteristics over the study domain.

  3. Empirical global model of upper thermosphere winds based on atmosphere and dynamics explorer satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedin, A. E.; Spencer, N. W.; Killeen, T. L.

    1988-01-01

    Thermospheric wind data obtained from the Atmosphere Explorer E and Dynamics Explorer 2 satellites have been used to generate an empirical wind model for the upper thermosphere, analogous to the MSIS model for temperature and density, using a limited set of vector spherical harmonics. The model is limited to above approximately 220 km where the data coverage is best and wind variations with height are reduced by viscosity. The data base is not adequate to detect solar cycle (F10.7) effects at this time but does include magnetic activity effects. Mid- and low-latitude data are reproduced quite well by the model and compare favorably with published ground-based results. The polar vortices are present, but not to full detail.

  4. Defining the next generation modeling of coastal ecotone dynamics in response to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Jiang; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Teh, Su-Y; Krauss, Ken W.; Wang, Hongqing; Haidong, Li; Smith, Thomas; Koh, Hock L.

    2016-01-01

    Coastal ecosystems are especially vulnerable to global change; e.g., sea level rise (SLR) and extreme events. Over the past century, global change has resulted in salt-tolerant (halophytic) plant species migrating into upland salt-intolerant (glycophytic) dominated habitats along major rivers and large wetland expanses along the coast. While habitat transitions can be abrupt, modeling the specific drivers of abrupt change between halophytic and glycophytic vegetation is not a simple task. Correlative studies, which dominate the literature, are unlikely to establish ultimate causation for habitat shifts, and do not generate strong predictive capacity for coastal land managers and climate change adaptation exercises. In this paper, we first review possible drivers of ecotone shifts for coastal wetlands, our understanding of which has expanded rapidly in recent years. Any exogenous factor that increases growth or establishment of halophytic species will favor the ecotone boundary moving upslope. However, internal feedbacks between vegetation and the environment, through which vegetation modifies the local microhabitat (e.g., by changing salinity or surface elevation), can either help the system become resilient to future changes or strengthen ecotone migration. Following this idea, we review a succession of models that have provided progressively better insight into the relative importance of internal positive feedbacks versus external environmental factors. We end with developing a theoretical model to show that both abrupt environmental gradients and internal positive feedbacks can generate the sharp ecotonal boundaries that we commonly see, and we demonstrate that the responses to gradual global change (e.g., SLR) can be quite diverse.

  5. The Dynamics of Regional and Global Expansion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geisler Asmussen, Christian; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard; Osegowitsch, Tom

    2015-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to model and test the dynamics of home-regional and global penetration by multi-national enterprises (MNEs). Design/methodology/approach – Drawing on international business (IB) theory, the authors model MNEs adjusting their home-regional and global market...... domain. Findings – The authors demonstrate that MNEs do penetrate both home-regional and global markets, often simultaneously, and that penetration levels often oscillate within an MNE over time. The authors show firms’ rates of regional and global expansion to be affected by their existing regional...

  6. On the assimilation of absolute geodetic dynamic topography in a global ocean model: impact on the deep ocean state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Androsov, Alexey; Nerger, Lars; Schnur, Reiner; Schröter, Jens; Albertella, Alberta; Rummel, Reiner; Savcenko, Roman; Bosch, Wolfgang; Skachko, Sergey; Danilov, Sergey

    2018-05-01

    General ocean circulation models are not perfect. Forced with observed atmospheric fluxes they gradually drift away from measured distributions of temperature and salinity. We suggest data assimilation of absolute dynamical ocean topography (DOT) observed from space geodetic missions as an option to reduce these differences. Sea surface information of DOT is transferred into the deep ocean by defining the analysed ocean state as a weighted average of an ensemble of fully consistent model solutions using an error-subspace ensemble Kalman filter technique. Success of the technique is demonstrated by assimilation into a global configuration of the ocean circulation model FESOM over 1 year. The dynamic ocean topography data are obtained from a combination of multi-satellite altimetry and geoid measurements. The assimilation result is assessed using independent temperature and salinity analysis derived from profiling buoys of the AGRO float data set. The largest impact of the assimilation occurs at the first few analysis steps where both the model ocean topography and the steric height (i.e. temperature and salinity) are improved. The continued data assimilation over 1 year further improves the model state gradually. Deep ocean fields quickly adjust in a sustained manner: A model forecast initialized from the model state estimated by the data assimilation after only 1 month shows that improvements induced by the data assimilation remain in the model state for a long time. Even after 11 months, the modelled ocean topography and temperature fields show smaller errors than the model forecast without any data assimilation.

  7. Stochastic identification of temperature effects on the dynamics of a smart composite beam: assessment of multi-model and global model approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hios, J D; Fassois, S D

    2009-01-01

    The temperature effects on the dynamics of a smart composite beam are experimentally studied via conventional multi-model and novel global model identification approaches. The multi-model approaches are based on non-parametric and parametric VARX representations, whereas the global model approaches are based on novel constant coefficient pooled (CCP) and functionally pooled (FP) VARX parametric representations. The analysis indicates that the obtained multi-model and global model representations are in rough overall agreement. Nevertheless, the latter simultaneously use all available data records offering more compact descriptions of the dynamics, improved numerical robustness and estimation accuracy, which is reflected in significantly reduced modal parameter uncertainties. Although the CCP-VARX representations provide only 'averaged' descriptions of the structural dynamics over temperature, their FP-VARX counterparts allow for the explicit, analytical modeling of temperature dependence exhibiting a 'smooth' deterministic dependence of the dynamics on temperature which is compatible with the physics of the problem. In accordance with previous studies, the obtained natural frequencies decrease with temperature in a weakly nonlinear or approximately linear fashion. The damping factors are less affected, although their dependence on temperature may be of a potentially more complex nature

  8. Evolution and challenges of dynamic global vegetation models for some aspects of plant physiology and elevated atmospheric CO2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezende, L F C; Arenque, B C; Aidar, S T; Moura, M S B; Von Randow, C; Tourigny, E; Menezes, R S C; Ometto, J P H B

    2016-07-01

    Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) simulate surface processes such as the transfer of energy, water, CO2, and momentum between the terrestrial surface and the atmosphere, biogeochemical cycles, carbon assimilation by vegetation, phenology, and land use change in scenarios of varying atmospheric CO2 concentrations. DGVMs increase the complexity and the Earth system representation when they are coupled with atmospheric global circulation models (AGCMs) or climate models. However, plant physiological processes are still a major source of uncertainty in DGVMs. The maximum velocity of carboxylation (Vcmax), for example, has a direct impact over productivity in the models. This parameter is often underestimated or imprecisely defined for the various plant functional types (PFTs) and ecosystems. Vcmax is directly related to photosynthesis acclimation (loss of response to elevated CO2), a widely known phenomenon that usually occurs when plants are subjected to elevated atmospheric CO2 and might affect productivity estimation in DGVMs. Despite this, current models have improved substantially, compared to earlier models which had a rudimentary and very simple representation of vegetation-atmosphere interactions. In this paper, we describe this evolution through generations of models and the main events that contributed to their improvements until the current state-of-the-art class of models. Also, we describe some main challenges for further improvements to DGVMs.

  9. The global dynamics for a stochastic SIS epidemic model with isolation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yiliang; Wen, Buyu; Teng, Zhidong

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we investigate the dynamical behavior for a stochastic SIS epidemic model with isolation which is as an important strategy for the elimination of infectious diseases. It is assumed that the stochastic effects manifest themselves mainly as fluctuation in the transmission coefficient, the death rate and the proportional coefficient of the isolation of infective. It is shown that the extinction and persistence in the mean of the model are determined by a threshold value R0S . That is, if R0S 1, then the disease is stochastic persistent in the means with probability one. Furthermore, the existence of a unique stationary distribution is discussed, and the sufficient conditions are established by using the Lyapunov function method. Finally, some numerical examples are carried out to confirm the analytical results.

  10. Modeling soil organic carbon dynamics and their driving factors in the main global cereal cropping systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guocheng; Zhang, Wen; Sun, Wenjuan; Li, Tingting; Han, Pengfei

    2017-10-01

    Changes in the soil organic carbon (SOC) stock are determined by the balance between the carbon input from organic materials and the output from the decomposition of soil C. The fate of SOC in cropland soils plays a significant role in both sustainable agricultural production and climate change mitigation. The spatiotemporal changes of soil organic carbon in croplands in response to different carbon (C) input management and environmental conditions across the main global cereal systems were studied using a modeling approach. We also identified the key variables that drive SOC changes at a high spatial resolution (0.1° × 0.1°) and over a long timescale (54 years from 1961 to 2014). A widely used soil C turnover model (RothC) and state-of-the-art databases of soil and climate variables were used in the present study. The model simulations suggested that, on a global average, the cropland SOC density increased at annual rates of 0.22, 0.45 and 0.69 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 under crop residue retention rates of 30, 60 and 90 %, respectively. Increasing the quantity of C input could enhance soil C sequestration or reduce the rate of soil C loss, depending largely on the local soil and climate conditions. Spatially, under a specific crop residue retention rate, relatively higher soil C sinks were found across the central parts of the USA, western Europe, and the northern regions of China. Relatively smaller soil C sinks occurred in the high-latitude regions of both the Northern and Southern hemispheres, and SOC decreased across the equatorial zones of Asia, Africa and America. We found that SOC change was significantly influenced by the crop residue retention rate (linearly positive) and the edaphic variable of initial SOC content (linearly negative). Temperature had weak negative effects, and precipitation had significantly negative impacts on SOC changes. The results can help guide carbon input management practices to effectively mitigate climate change through soil C

  11. Modeling soil organic carbon dynamics and their driving factors in the main global cereal cropping systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Wang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Changes in the soil organic carbon (SOC stock are determined by the balance between the carbon input from organic materials and the output from the decomposition of soil C. The fate of SOC in cropland soils plays a significant role in both sustainable agricultural production and climate change mitigation. The spatiotemporal changes of soil organic carbon in croplands in response to different carbon (C input management and environmental conditions across the main global cereal systems were studied using a modeling approach. We also identified the key variables that drive SOC changes at a high spatial resolution (0.1°  ×  0.1° and over a long timescale (54 years from 1961 to 2014. A widely used soil C turnover model (RothC and state-of-the-art databases of soil and climate variables were used in the present study. The model simulations suggested that, on a global average, the cropland SOC density increased at annual rates of 0.22, 0.45 and 0.69 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 under crop residue retention rates of 30, 60 and 90 %, respectively. Increasing the quantity of C input could enhance soil C sequestration or reduce the rate of soil C loss, depending largely on the local soil and climate conditions. Spatially, under a specific crop residue retention rate, relatively higher soil C sinks were found across the central parts of the USA, western Europe, and the northern regions of China. Relatively smaller soil C sinks occurred in the high-latitude regions of both the Northern and Southern hemispheres, and SOC decreased across the equatorial zones of Asia, Africa and America. We found that SOC change was significantly influenced by the crop residue retention rate (linearly positive and the edaphic variable of initial SOC content (linearly negative. Temperature had weak negative effects, and precipitation had significantly negative impacts on SOC changes. The results can help guide carbon input management practices to

  12. Steady-state global optimization of metabolic non-linear dynamic models through recasting into power-law canonical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozo, Carlos; Marín-Sanguino, Alberto; Alves, Rui; Guillén-Gosálbez, Gonzalo; Jiménez, Laureano; Sorribas, Albert

    2011-08-25

    Design of newly engineered microbial strains for biotechnological purposes would greatly benefit from the development of realistic mathematical models for the processes to be optimized. Such models can then be analyzed and, with the development and application of appropriate optimization techniques, one could identify the modifications that need to be made to the organism in order to achieve the desired biotechnological goal. As appropriate models to perform such an analysis are necessarily non-linear and typically non-convex, finding their global optimum is a challenging task. Canonical modeling techniques, such as Generalized Mass Action (GMA) models based on the power-law formalism, offer a possible solution to this problem because they have a mathematical structure that enables the development of specific algorithms for global optimization. Based on the GMA canonical representation, we have developed in previous works a highly efficient optimization algorithm and a set of related strategies for understanding the evolution of adaptive responses in cellular metabolism. Here, we explore the possibility of recasting kinetic non-linear models into an equivalent GMA model, so that global optimization on the recast GMA model can be performed. With this technique, optimization is greatly facilitated and the results are transposable to the original non-linear problem. This procedure is straightforward for a particular class of non-linear models known as Saturable and Cooperative (SC) models that extend the power-law formalism to deal with saturation and cooperativity. Our results show that recasting non-linear kinetic models into GMA models is indeed an appropriate strategy that helps overcoming some of the numerical difficulties that arise during the global optimization task.

  13. Steady-state global optimization of metabolic non-linear dynamic models through recasting into power-law canonical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sorribas Albert

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Design of newly engineered microbial strains for biotechnological purposes would greatly benefit from the development of realistic mathematical models for the processes to be optimized. Such models can then be analyzed and, with the development and application of appropriate optimization techniques, one could identify the modifications that need to be made to the organism in order to achieve the desired biotechnological goal. As appropriate models to perform such an analysis are necessarily non-linear and typically non-convex, finding their global optimum is a challenging task. Canonical modeling techniques, such as Generalized Mass Action (GMA models based on the power-law formalism, offer a possible solution to this problem because they have a mathematical structure that enables the development of specific algorithms for global optimization. Results Based on the GMA canonical representation, we have developed in previous works a highly efficient optimization algorithm and a set of related strategies for understanding the evolution of adaptive responses in cellular metabolism. Here, we explore the possibility of recasting kinetic non-linear models into an equivalent GMA model, so that global optimization on the recast GMA model can be performed. With this technique, optimization is greatly facilitated and the results are transposable to the original non-linear problem. This procedure is straightforward for a particular class of non-linear models known as Saturable and Cooperative (SC models that extend the power-law formalism to deal with saturation and cooperativity. Conclusions Our results show that recasting non-linear kinetic models into GMA models is indeed an appropriate strategy that helps overcoming some of the numerical difficulties that arise during the global optimization task.

  14. Simulating vegetation response to climate change in the Blue Mountains with MC2 dynamic global vegetation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John B. Kim

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Warming temperatures are projected to greatly alter many forests in the Pacific Northwest. MC2 is a dynamic global vegetation model, a climate-aware, process-based, and gridded vegetation model. We calibrated and ran MC2 simulations for the Blue Mountains Ecoregion, Oregon, USA, at 30 arc-second spatial resolution. We calibrated MC2 using the best available spatial datasets from land managers. We ran future simulations using climate projections from four global circulation models (GCM under representative concentration pathway 8.5. Under this scenario, forest productivity is projected to increase as the growing season lengthens, and fire occurrence is projected to increase steeply throughout the century, with burned area peaking early- to mid-century. Subalpine forests are projected to disappear, and the coniferous forests to contract by 32.8%. Large portions of the dry and mesic forests are projected to convert to woodlands, unless precipitation were to increase. Low levels of change are projected for the Umatilla National Forest consistently across the four GCM’s. For the Wallowa-Whitman and the Malheur National Forest, forest conversions are projected to vary more across the four GCM-based simulations, reflecting high levels of uncertainty arising from climate. For simulations based on three of the four GCMs, sharply increased fire activity results in decreases in forest carbon stocks by the mid-century, and the fire activity catalyzes widespread biome shift across the study area. We document the full cycle of a structured approach to calibrating and running MC2 for transparency and to serve as a template for applications of MC2. Keywords: Climate change, Regional change, Simulation, Calibration, Forests, Fire, Dynamic global vegetation model

  15. Smaller global and regional carbon emissions from gross land use change when considering sub-grid secondary land cohorts in a global dynamic vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Chao; Ciais, Philippe; Li, Wei

    2018-02-01

    Several modelling studies reported elevated carbon emissions from historical land use change (ELUC) by including bidirectional transitions on the sub-grid scale (termed gross land use change), dominated by shifting cultivation and other land turnover processes. However, most dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) that have implemented gross land use change either do not account for sub-grid secondary lands, or often have only one single secondary land tile over a model grid cell and thus cannot account for various rotation lengths in shifting cultivation and associated secondary forest age dynamics. Therefore, it remains uncertain how realistic the past ELUC estimations are and how estimated ELUC will differ between the two modelling approaches with and without multiple sub-grid secondary land cohorts - in particular secondary forest cohorts. Here we investigated historical ELUC over 1501-2005 by including sub-grid forest age dynamics in a DGVM. We run two simulations, one with no secondary forests (Sageless) and the other with sub-grid secondary forests of six age classes whose demography is driven by historical land use change (Sage). Estimated global ELUC for 1501-2005 is 176 Pg C in Sage compared to 197 Pg C in Sageless. The lower ELUC values in Sage arise mainly from shifting cultivation in the tropics under an assumed constant rotation length of 15 years, being 27 Pg C in Sage in contrast to 46 Pg C in Sageless. Estimated cumulative ELUC values from wood harvest in the Sage simulation (31 Pg C) are however slightly higher than Sageless (27 Pg C) when the model is forced by reconstructed harvested areas because secondary forests targeted in Sage for harvest priority are insufficient to meet the prescribed harvest area, leading to wood harvest being dominated by old primary forests. An alternative approach to quantify wood harvest ELUC, i.e. always harvesting the close-to-mature forests in both Sageless and Sage, yields similar values of 33 Pg C by both

  16. An ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach for discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo; Yang, Hong; Sweetapple, Chris

    2018-03-01

    Global precipitation products are very important datasets in flow simulations, especially in poorly gauged regions. Uncertainties resulting from precipitation products, hydrological models and their combinations vary with time and data magnitude, and undermine their application to flow simulations. However, previous studies have not quantified these uncertainties individually and explicitly. This study developed an ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach (e-Bay) for deterministic discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models. In this approach, the joint probability of precipitation products and hydrological models being correct is quantified based on uncertainties in maximum and mean estimation, posterior probability is quantified as functions of the magnitude and timing of discharges, and the law of total probability is implemented to calculate expected discharges. Six global fine-resolution precipitation products and two hydrological models of different complexities are included in an illustrative application. e-Bay can effectively quantify uncertainties and therefore generate better deterministic discharges than traditional approaches (weighted average methods with equal and varying weights and maximum likelihood approach). The mean Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values of e-Bay are up to 0.97 and 0.85 in training and validation periods respectively, which are at least 0.06 and 0.13 higher than traditional approaches. In addition, with increased training data, assessment criteria values of e-Bay show smaller fluctuations than traditional approaches and its performance becomes outstanding. The proposed e-Bay approach bridges the gap between global precipitation products and their pragmatic applications to discharge simulations, and is beneficial to water resources management in ungauged or poorly gauged regions across the world.

  17. Global dynamic analysis of a H7N9 avian-human influenza model in an outbreak region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yongxue; Wen, Yongxian

    2015-02-21

    In 2013 in China a new type of avian influenza virus, H7N9, began to infect humans and had aroused severe fatality in the infected humans. We know that the spread is from poultry to humans, and the H7N9 avian influenza is low pathogenic in the poultry world but highly pathogenic in the human world, but the transmission mechanism is unclear. Since it has no signs of human-to-human transmission and outbreaks are isolated in some cities in China, in order to investigate the transmission mechanism of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza, an eco-epidemiological model in an outbreak region is proposed and analyzed dynamically. Researches and reports show that gene mutation makes the new virus be capable of infecting humans, therefore the mutation factor is taken into account in the model. The global dynamic analysis is conducted, different thresholds are identified, persistence and global qualitative behaviors are obtained. The impact of H7N9 avian influenza on the people population is concerned. Finally, the numerical simulations are carried out to support the theoretical analysis and to investigate the disease control measures. It seems that we may take people׳s hygiene and prevention awareness factor as a significant policy to achieve the aim of both the disease control and the economic returns. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Dynamics of the Indian monsoon and ENSO relationships in the SINTEX global coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Terray, P. [LODYC, Paris (France); Universite Paris 7, Paris (France); Guilyardi, E. [LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); CGAM, Reading (United Kingdom); Fischer, A.S. [LODYC, Paris (France); Delecluse, P. [LODYC, Paris (France); LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

    2005-02-01

    This paper uses recent gridded climatological data and a coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulation in order to assess the relationships between the interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The focus is on the dynamics of the ISM-ENSO relationships and the ability of the state-of-the-art coupled GCM to reproduce the complex lead-lag relationships between the ISM and the ENSO. The coupled GCM is successful in reproducing the ISM circulation and rainfall climatology in the Indian areas even though the entire ISM circulation is weaker relative to that observed. In both observations and in the simulation, the ISM rainfall anomalies are significantly associated with fluctuations of the Hadley circulation and the 200 hPa zonal wind anomalies over the Indian Ocean. A quasi-biennial time scale is found to structure the ISM dynamical and rainfall indices in both cases. Moreover, ISM indices have a similar interannual variability in the simulation and observations. The coupled model is less successful in simulating the annual cycle in the tropical Pacific. Despite some problems in simulation of the annual cycle and the Southern Oscillation, the coupled model captures some aspects of the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. ENSO events are phase-locked with the annual cycle as observed, but are of reduced amplitude relative to the observations. Wavelet analysis of the model Nino34 time series shows enhanced power in the 2-4 year band, as compared to the 2-8 year range for observations during the 1950-2000 period. The ISM circulation is weakened during ENSO years in both the simulation and the observations. However, the model fails to reproduce the lead-lag relationship between the ISM and Nino34 sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Furthermore, lag correlations show that the delayed response of the wind stress over the central Pacific to ISM variability is insignificant in the simulation. These

  19. Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to Simulate the Response of Vegetation to Warming at the Paleocene-Eocene Boundary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shellito, C. J.; Sloan, L. C.

    2004-12-01

    A major turnover in benthic marine and terrestrial fauna marks the Initial Eocene Thermal Maximum (IETM) (~55Ma), a period of ~150 ky in which there was a rapid rise in deep sea and high latitude sea surface temperatures by 5-8C. Curiously, no major responses to this warming in the terrestrial floral record have been detected to date. Here, we present results from experiments examining the response of the global distribution of vegetation to changes in climate at the IETM using the NCAR Land Surface Model (LSM1.2) integrated with a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). DGVMs allow vegetation to respond to and interact with climate, and thus, provide a unique new method for addressing questions regarding feedbacks between the ecosystem and climate in Earth's past. However, there are a number of drawbacks to using these models that can affect interpretation of results. More specifically, these drawbacks involve uncertainties in the application of modern plant functional types to paleo-flora simulations, inaccuracies in the model climatology used to drive the DGVM, and lack of available detail regarding paleo-geography and paleo-soil type for use in model boundary conditions. For a better understanding of these drawbacks, we present results from a series of tests in the NCAR LSM-DGVM which examine (1) the effect of removing C4 grasses from the available plant functional types in the model; (2) model sensitivity to a change in soil texture; and (3), model sensitivity to a change in the value of pCO2 used in the photosynthetic rate equations. We consider our DGVM results for the IETM in light of output from these sensitivity experiments.

  20. Financial fragility and global dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dieci, Roberto; Sordi, Serena; Vercelli, Alessandro

    2006-01-01

    This paper deals with a simple model of financial fluctuations, where a crucial role is played by the dynamic interaction between aggregate current and intertemporal financial ratios. The model results in a 4D discrete-time dynamical system-capable of generating complex dynamics-which is analyzed by means of both analytical tools, such as local stability analysis and bifurcation theory, and numerical simulations. The behavior of the model is studied for different parameter regimes. We show that its dynamic behavior is very sensitive to the parameters that represent (1) the speed of adjustment of the desired current financial ratio towards a safe level of the intertemporal one and (2) the intensity with which aggregate current financial decisions affect future financial constraints. In particular, different parameter regimes are identified, giving rise to two different 'routes' to complexity, one leading to chaotic dynamics, the other to a coexistence of attractors and path-dependence

  1. Global dynamics of a PDE model for aedes aegypti mosquitoe incorporating female sexual preference

    KAUST Repository

    Parshad, Rana; Agusto, Folashade B.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we study the long time dynamics of a reaction diffusion system, describing the spread of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which are the primary cause of dengue infection. The system incorporates a control attempt via the sterile insect

  2. Late Miocene Pacific plate kinematic change explained with coupled global models of mantle and lithosphere dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stotz, Ingo Leonardo; Iaffaldano, Giampiero; Davies, DR

    2017-01-01

    and the consequent subduction polarity reversal. The uncertainties associated with the timing of this event, however, make it difficult to quantitatively demonstrate a dynamical association. Here, we first reconstruct the Pacific plate's absolute motion since the mid-Miocene (15 Ma), at high-temporal resolution....../lithosphere system to test hypotheses on the dynamics driving this change. These indicate that the arrival of the OJP at the Melanesian arc, between 10 and 5 Ma, followed by a subduction polarity reversal that marked the initiation of subduction of the Australian plate underneath the Pacific realm, were the key...... drivers of this kinematic change....

  3. The Open Global Glacier Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzeion, B.; Maussion, F.

    2017-12-01

    Mountain glaciers are one of the few remaining sub-systems of the global climate system for which no globally applicable, open source, community-driven model exists. Notable examples from the ice sheet community include the Parallel Ice Sheet Model or Elmer/Ice. While the atmospheric modeling community has a long tradition of sharing models (e.g. the Weather Research and Forecasting model) or comparing them (e.g. the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project or CMIP), recent initiatives originating from the glaciological community show a new willingness to better coordinate global research efforts following the CMIP example (e.g. the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project or the Glacier Ice Thickness Estimation Working Group). In the recent past, great advances have been made in the global availability of data and methods relevant for glacier modeling, spanning glacier outlines, automatized glacier centerline identification, bed rock inversion methods, and global topographic data sets. Taken together, these advances now allow the ice dynamics of glaciers to be modeled on a global scale, provided that adequate modeling platforms are available. Here, we present the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), developed to provide a global scale, modular, and open source numerical model framework for consistently simulating past and future global scale glacier change. Global not only in the sense of leading to meaningful results for all glaciers combined, but also for any small ensemble of glaciers, e.g. at the headwater catchment scale. Modular to allow combinations of different approaches to the representation of ice flow and surface mass balance, enabling a new kind of model intercomparison. Open source so that the code can be read and used by anyone and so that new modules can be added and discussed by the community, following the principles of open governance. Consistent in order to provide uncertainty measures at all realizable scales.

  4. Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heesterbeek, Hans|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073321427; Anderson, Roy M; Andreasen, Viggo; Bansal, Shweta; De Angelis, Daniela; Dye, Chris; Eames, Ken T D; Edmunds, W John; Frost, Simon D W; Funk, Sebastian; Hollingsworth, T Deirdre; House, Thomas; Isham, Valerie; Klepac, Petra; Lessler, Justin; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Mollison, Denis; Pellis, Lorenzo; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Roberts, Mick G; Viboud, Cecile

    2015-01-01

    Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales,

  5. European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haylock, M. R.

    2011-10-01

    Uncertainty in the return levels of insured loss from European wind storms was quantified using storms derived from twenty-two 25 km regional climate model runs driven by either the ERA40 reanalyses or one of four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Storms were identified using a model-dependent storm severity index based on daily maximum 10 m wind speed. The wind speed from each model was calibrated to a set of 7 km historical storm wind fields using the 70 storms with the highest severity index in the period 1961-2000, employing a two stage calibration methodology. First, the 25 km daily maximum wind speed was downscaled to the 7 km historical model grid using the 7 km surface roughness length and orography, also adopting an empirical gust parameterisation. Secondly, downscaled wind gusts were statistically scaled to the historical storms to match the geographically-dependent cumulative distribution function of wind gust speed. The calibrated wind fields were run through an operational catastrophe reinsurance risk model to determine the return level of loss to a European population density-derived property portfolio. The risk model produced a 50-yr return level of loss of between 0.025% and 0.056% of the total insured value of the portfolio.

  6. European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Haylock

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty in the return levels of insured loss from European wind storms was quantified using storms derived from twenty-two 25 km regional climate model runs driven by either the ERA40 reanalyses or one of four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Storms were identified using a model-dependent storm severity index based on daily maximum 10 m wind speed. The wind speed from each model was calibrated to a set of 7 km historical storm wind fields using the 70 storms with the highest severity index in the period 1961–2000, employing a two stage calibration methodology. First, the 25 km daily maximum wind speed was downscaled to the 7 km historical model grid using the 7 km surface roughness length and orography, also adopting an empirical gust parameterisation. Secondly, downscaled wind gusts were statistically scaled to the historical storms to match the geographically-dependent cumulative distribution function of wind gust speed.

    The calibrated wind fields were run through an operational catastrophe reinsurance risk model to determine the return level of loss to a European population density-derived property portfolio. The risk model produced a 50-yr return level of loss of between 0.025% and 0.056% of the total insured value of the portfolio.

  7. Simulating boreal forest carbon dynamics after stand-replacing fire disturbance: insights from a global process-based vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, C.; Ciais, P.; Luyssaert, S.; Cadule, P.; Harden, J.; Randerson, J.; Bellassen, V.; Wang, T.; Piao, S.L.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.

    2013-01-01

    Stand-replacing fires are the dominant fire type in North American boreal forests. They leave a historical legacy of a mosaic landscape of different aged forest cohorts. This forest age dynamics must be included in vegetation models to accurately quantify the role of fire in the historical and current regional forest carbon balance. The present study adapted the global process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the CO2 emissions from boreal forest fire and the subsequent recovery after a stand-replacing fire; the model represents postfire new cohort establishment, forest stand structure and the self-thinning process. Simulation results are evaluated against observations of three clusters of postfire forest chronosequences in Canada and Alaska. The variables evaluated include: fire carbon emissions, CO2 fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration and net ecosystem exchange), leaf area index, and biometric measurements (aboveground biomass carbon, forest floor carbon, woody debris carbon, stand individual density, stand basal area, and mean diameter at breast height). When forced by local climate and the atmospheric CO2 history at each chronosequence site, the model simulations generally match the observed CO2 fluxes and carbon stock data well, with model-measurement mean square root of deviation comparable with the measurement accuracy (for CO2 flux ~100 g C m−2 yr−1, for biomass carbon ~1000 g C m−2 and for soil carbon ~2000 g C m−2). We find that the current postfire forest carbon sink at the evaluation sites, as observed by chronosequence methods, is mainly due to a combination of historical CO2 increase and forest succession. Climate change and variability during this period offsets some of these expected carbon gains. The negative impacts of climate were a likely consequence of increasing water stress caused by significant temperature increases that were not matched by concurrent increases in precipitation. Our simulation

  8. Mathematical analysis of the global dynamics of a power law model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We analyze a mathematical power law model that describes HIV infection of CD4+ T cells. We report that the number of critical points depends on , where is a positive integer. We show that for any positive integer the infection – free equilibrium is asymptotically stable if the reproduction number R0 1.

  9. Global sensitivity analysis of a dynamic agroecosystem model under different irrigation treatments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savings in consumptive use through limited or deficit irrigation in agriculture has become an increasingly viable source of additional water for places with high population growth such as the Colorado Front Range, USA. Crop models provide a mechanism to evaluate various management methods without pe...

  10. The role of the southern annular mode in dynamical global coupled model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Beraki, AF

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The interannual and decadal variability of the Southern Annual Mode (SAM) was examined in the ECHAM 4.5-MOM3-SA ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model (OAGCM). The analysis placed emphasis on the behavior of the SAM when its variability...

  11. Dynamic modelling of water demand, water availability and adaptation strategies for power plants to global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koch, Hagen; Voegele, Stefan

    2009-01-01

    According to the latest IPCC reports, the frequency of hot and dry periods will increase in many regions of the world in the future. For power plant operators, the increasing possibility of water shortages is an important challenge that they have to face. Shortages of electricity due to water shortages could have an influence on industries as well as on private households. Climate change impact analyses must analyse the climate effects on power plants and possible adaptation strategies for the power generation sector. Power plants have lifetimes of several decades. Their water demand changes with climate parameters in the short- and medium-term. In the long-term, the water demand will change as old units are phased out and new generating units appear in their place. In this paper, we describe the integration of functions for the calculation of the water demand of power plants into a water resources management model. Also included are both short-term reactive and long-term planned adaptation. This integration allows us to simulate the interconnection between the water demand of power plants and water resources management, i.e. water availability. Economic evaluation functions for water shortages are also integrated into the water resources management model. This coupled model enables us to analyse scenarios of socio-economic and climate change, as well as the effects of water management actions. (author)

  12. Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species. An application to CO2 global emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puliafito, Salvador Enrique; Puliafito, Jose Luis; Grand, Mariana Conte

    2008-01-01

    Since the beginning of the last century the world is experiencing an important demographic transition, which will probably impact on economic growth. Many demographers and social scientists are trying to understand the key drivers of such transition as well as its profound implications. A correct understanding will help to predict other important trends of the world primary energy demand and the carbon emission to the atmosphere, which may be leading to an important climate change. This paper proposes a set of coupled differential equations to describe the changes of population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions, modeled as competing species as in Lotka-Volterra prey-predator relations. The predator-prey model is well known in the biological, ecological and environmental literature and has also been applied successfully in other fields. This model proposes a new and simple conceptual explanation of the interactions and feedbacks among the principal driving forces leading to the present transition. The estimated results for the temporal evolution of world population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions are calculated from year 1850 to year 2150. The calculated scenarios are in good agreement with common world data and projections for the next 100 years. (author)

  13. Local versus global interactions in nonequilibrium transitions: A model of social dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Avella, J. C.; Eguíluz, V. M.; Cosenza, M. G.; Klemm, K.; Herrera, J. L.; San Miguel, M.

    2006-04-01

    A nonequilibrium system of locally interacting elements in a lattice with an absorbing order-disorder phase transition is studied under the effect of additional interacting fields. These fields are shown to produce interesting effects in the collective behavior of this system. Both for autonomous and external fields, disorder grows in the system when the probability of the elements to interact with the field is increased. There exists a threshold value of this probability beyond which the system is always disordered. The domain of parameters of the ordered regime is larger for nonuniform local fields than for spatially uniform fields. However, the zero field limit is discontinous. In the limit of vanishingly small probability of interaction with the field, autonomous or external fields are able to order a system that would fall in a disordered phase under local interactions of the elements alone. We consider different types of fields which are interpreted as forms of mass media acting on a social system in the context of Axelrod’s model for cultural dissemination.

  14. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Larsen, Marcus M.; Bharati, Pratyush

    2013-01-01

    This article examines antecedents and performance implications of global delivery models (GDMs) in global business services. GDMs require geographically distributed operations to exploit both proximity to clients and time-zone spread for efficient service delivery. We propose and empirically show...

  15. Global ice volume variations through the last glacial cycle simulated by a 3-D ice-dynamical model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bintanja, R.; Wal, R.S.W. van de; Oerlemans, J.

    2002-01-01

    A coupled ice sheet—ice shelf—bedrock model was run at 20km resolution to simulate the evolution of global ice cover during the last glacial cycle. The mass balance model uses monthly mean temperature and precipitation as input and incorporates the albedo—mass balance feedback. The model is forced

  16. Improving dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulation of western U.S. rangelands vegetation seasonal phenology and productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerns, B. K.; Kim, J. B.; Day, M. A.; Pitts, B.; Drapek, R. J.

    2017-12-01

    Ecosystem process models are increasingly being used in regional assessments to explore potential changes in future vegetation and NPP due to climate change. We use the dynamic global vegetation model MAPSS-Century 2 (MC2) as one line of evidence for regional climate change vulnerability assessments for the US Forest Service, focusing our fine tuning model calibration from observational sources related to forest vegetation. However, there is much interest in understanding projected changes for arid rangelands in the western US such as grasslands, shrublands, and woodlands. Rangelands provide many ecosystem service benefits and local rural human community sustainability, habitat for threatened and endangered species, and are threatened by annual grass invasion. Past work suggested MC2 performance related to arid rangeland plant functional types (PFT's) was poor, and the model has difficulty distinguishing annual versus perennial grasslands. Our objectives are to increase the model performance for rangeland simulations and explore the potential for splitting the grass plant functional type into annual and perennial. We used the tri-state Blue Mountain Ecoregion as our study area and maps of potential vegetation from interpolated ground data, the National Land Cover Data Database, and ancillary NPP data derived from the MODIS satellite. MC2 historical simulations for the area overestimated woodland occurrence and underestimated shrubland and grassland PFT's. The spatial location of the rangeland PFT's also often did not align well with observational data. While some disagreement may be due to differences in the respective classification rules, the errors are largely linked to MC2's tree and grass biogeography and physiology algorithms. Presently, only grass and forest productivity measures and carbon stocks are used to distinguish PFT's. MC2 grass and tree productivity simulation is problematic, in particular grass seasonal phenology in relation to seasonal patterns

  17. Soil and deforestation use standards in Amazon and its global impacts: a regional dynamics economic and ecological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sherrill, Elisabeth I.

    1999-01-01

    The aim of the work was to introduce a simulation model to analyze the deforestation causes in Amazon. The work describes the basic parameters and fundamental concepts to the performed modeling comprehension. The several agents soil utilization standards were going observed and the economic and ecological interactions simulated. The global impact aspects are also analyzed

  18. Impact of the dynamical core on the direct simulation of tropical cyclones in a high-resolution global model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, K. A.

    2015-01-01

    Our paper examines the impact of the dynamical core on the simulation of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency, distribution, and intensity. The dynamical core, the central fluid flow component of any general circulation model (GCM), is often overlooked in the analysis of a model's ability to simulate TCs compared to the impact of more commonly documented components (e.g., physical parameterizations). The Community Atmosphere Model version 5 is configured with multiple dynamics packages. This analysis demonstrates that the dynamical core has a significant impact on storm intensity and frequency, even in the presence of similar large-scale environments. In particular, the spectral element core produces stronger TCs and more hurricanes than the finite-volume core using very similar parameterization packages despite the latter having a slightly more favorable TC environment. Furthermore, these results suggest that more detailed investigations into the impact of the GCM dynamical core on TC climatology are needed to fully understand these uncertainties. Key Points The impact of the GCM dynamical core is often overlooked in TC assessments The CAM5 dynamical core has a significant impact on TC frequency and intensity A larger effort is needed to better understand this uncertainty

  19. Impact of global warming on the geobotanic zones: an experiment with a statistical-dynamical climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franchito, Sergio H.; Brahmananda Rao, V. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Ciencia do Sistema Terrestre, CCST, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil); Moraes, E.C. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Divisao de Sensoriamento Remoto, DSR, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2011-11-15

    In this study, a zonally-averaged statistical climate model (SDM) is used to investigate the impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe. The model includes a parameterization of the biogeophysical feedback mechanism that links the state of surface to the atmosphere (a bidirectional interaction between vegetation and climate). In the control experiment (simulation of the present-day climate) the geobotanic state is well simulated by the model, so that the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe shows a very good agreement with the observed ones. The impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones is investigated considering the increase of CO{sub 2} concentration for the B1, A2 and A1FI scenarios. The results showed that the geobotanic zones over the entire earth can be modified in future due to global warming. Expansion of subtropical desert and semi-desert zones in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, retreat of glaciers and sea-ice, with the Arctic region being particularly affected and a reduction of the tropical rainforest and boreal forest can occur due to the increase of the greenhouse gases concentration. The effects were more pronounced in the A1FI and A2 scenarios compared with the B1 scenario. The SDM results confirm IPCC AR4 projections of future climate and are consistent with simulations of more complex GCMs, reinforcing the necessity of the mitigation of climate change associated to global warming. (orig.)

  20. Simulating boreal forest carbon dynamics after stand-replacing fire disturbance : Insights from a global process-based vegetation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yue, Chao; Ciais, P.; Luyssaert, S.; Cadule, Patricia; Harden, J. L.; Randerson, J.; Bellassen, V.; Wang, T.; Piao, S.L.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.

    2013-01-01

    Stand-replacing fires are the dominant fire type in North American boreal forests. They leave a historical legacy of a mosaic landscape of different aged forest cohorts. This forest age dynamics must be included in vegetation models to accurately quantify the role of fire in the historical and

  1. Global Hail Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, A.; Sanderson, M.; Hand, W.; Blyth, A.; Groenemeijer, P.; Kunz, M.; Puskeiler, M.; Saville, G.; Michel, G.

    2012-04-01

    Hail risk models are rare for the insurance industry. This is opposed to the fact that average annual hail losses can be large and hail dominates losses for many motor portfolios worldwide. Insufficient observational data, high spatio-temporal variability and data inhomogenity have hindered creation of credible models so far. In January 2012, a selected group of hail experts met at Willis in London in order to discuss ways to model hail risk at various scales. Discussions aimed at improving our understanding of hail occurrence and severity, and covered recent progress in the understanding of microphysical processes and climatological behaviour and hail vulnerability. The final outcome of the meeting was the formation of a global hail risk model initiative and the launch of a realistic global hail model in order to assess hail loss occurrence and severities for the globe. The following projects will be tackled: Microphysics of Hail and hail severity measures: Understand the physical drivers of hail and hailstone size development in different regions on the globe. Proposed factors include updraft and supercooled liquid water content in the troposphere. What are the thresholds drivers of hail formation around the globe? Hail Climatology: Consider ways to build a realistic global climatological set of hail events based on physical parameters including spatial variations in total availability of moisture, aerosols, among others, and using neural networks. Vulnerability, Exposure, and financial model: Use historical losses and event footprints available in the insurance market to approximate fragility distributions and damage potential for various hail sizes for property, motor, and agricultural business. Propagate uncertainty distributions and consider effects of policy conditions along with aggregating and disaggregating exposure and losses. This presentation provides an overview of ideas and tasks that lead towards a comprehensive global understanding of hail risk for

  2. Dynamic model of the global iodine cycle for the estimation of dose to the world population from releases of iodine-129 to the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kocher, D.C.

    1979-11-01

    A dynamic linear compartment model of the global iodine cycle has been developed for the purpose of estimating long-term doses and dose commitments to the world population from releases of 129 I to the environment. The environmental compartments assumed in the model comprise the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and terrestrial biosphere. The global transport of iodine is described by means of time-invariant fractional transfer rates between the environmental compartments. The fractional transfer rates for 129 I are determined primarily from available data on compartment inventories and fluxes for naturally occurring stable iodine and from data on the global hydrologic cycle. The dose to the world population is estimated from the calculated compartment inventories of 129 I, the known compartment inventories of stable iodine, a pathway analysis of the intake of iodine by a reference individual, dose conversion factors for inhalation and ingestion, and an estimate of the world population. For an assumed constant population of 12.21 billion beyond the year 2075, the estimated population dose commitment is 2 x 10 5 man-rem/Ci. The sensitivity of the calculated doses to variations in some of the parameters in the model for the global iodine cycle is investigated. A computer code written to calculate global compartment inventories and dose rates and population doses is described and documented

  3. Sensitivity analysis of a sediment dynamics model applied in a Mediterranean river basin: global change and management implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Canales, M; López-Benito, A; Acuña, V; Ziv, G; Hamel, P; Chaplin-Kramer, R; Elorza, F J

    2015-01-01

    Climate change and land-use change are major factors influencing sediment dynamics. Models can be used to better understand sediment production and retention by the landscape, although their interpretation is limited by large uncertainties, including model parameter uncertainties. The uncertainties related to parameter selection may be significant and need to be quantified to improve model interpretation for watershed management. In this study, we performed a sensitivity analysis of the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs) sediment retention model in order to determine which model parameters had the greatest influence on model outputs, and therefore require special attention during calibration. The estimation of the sediment loads in this model is based on the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). The sensitivity analysis was performed in the Llobregat basin (NE Iberian Peninsula) for exported and retained sediment, which support two different ecosystem service benefits (avoided reservoir sedimentation and improved water quality). Our analysis identified the model parameters related to the natural environment as the most influential for sediment export and retention. Accordingly, small changes in variables such as the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events could cause major changes in sediment dynamics, demonstrating the sensitivity of these dynamics to climate change in Mediterranean basins. Parameters directly related to human activities and decisions (such as cover management factor, C) were also influential, especially for sediment exported. The importance of these human-related parameters in the sediment export process suggests that mitigation measures have the potential to at least partially ameliorate climate-change driven changes in sediment exportation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Tractable dynamic global games and applications

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Mathevet, L.; Steiner, Jakub

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 148, č. 6 (2013), s. 2583-2619 ISSN 0022-0531 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : global games * dynamic game * coordination Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.919, year: 2013

  5. Mars approach for global sensitivity analysis of differential equation models with applications to dynamics of influenza infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yeonok; Wu, Hulin

    2012-01-01

    Differential equation models are widely used for the study of natural phenomena in many fields. The study usually involves unknown factors such as initial conditions and/or parameters. It is important to investigate the impact of unknown factors (parameters and initial conditions) on model outputs in order to better understand the system the model represents. Apportioning the uncertainty (variation) of output variables of a model according to the input factors is referred to as sensitivity analysis. In this paper, we focus on the global sensitivity analysis of ordinary differential equation (ODE) models over a time period using the multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) as a meta model based on the concept of the variance of conditional expectation (VCE). We suggest to evaluate the VCE analytically using the MARS model structure of univariate tensor-product functions which is more computationally efficient. Our simulation studies show that the MARS model approach performs very well and helps to significantly reduce the computational cost. We present an application example of sensitivity analysis of ODE models for influenza infection to further illustrate the usefulness of the proposed method.

  6. Global scale groundwater flow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutanudjaja, Edwin; de Graaf, Inge; van Beek, Ludovicus; Bierkens, Marc

    2013-04-01

    As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater sustains water flows in streams, rivers, lakes and wetlands, and thus supports ecosystem habitat and biodiversity, while its large natural storage provides a buffer against water shortages. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models does not include a groundwater flow component that is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle and allows the simulation of groundwater head dynamics. In this study we present a steady-state MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) groundwater model on the global scale at 5 arc-minutes resolution. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological model (e.g. Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moorsdorff, in press). We force the groundwtaer model with the output from the large-scale hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the long term net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. We validated calculated groundwater heads and depths with available head observations, from different regions, including the North and South America and Western Europe. Our results show that it is feasible to build a relatively simple global scale groundwater model using existing information, and estimate water table depths within acceptable accuracy in many parts of the world.

  7. A novel assessment of the role of land-use and land-cover change in the global carbon cycle, using a new Dynamic Global Vegetation Model version of the CABLE land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haverd, Vanessa; Smith, Benjamin; Nieradzik, Lars; Briggs, Peter; Canadell, Josep

    2017-04-01

    In recent decades, terrestrial ecosystems have sequestered around 1.2 PgC y-1, an amount equivalent to 20% of fossil-fuel emissions. This land carbon flux is the net result of the impact of changing climate and CO2 on ecosystem productivity (CO2-climate driven land sink ) and deforestation, harvest and secondary forest regrowth (the land-use change (LUC) flux). The future trajectory of the land carbon flux is highly dependent upon the contributions of these processes to the net flux. However their contributions are highly uncertain, in part because the CO2-climate driven land sink and LUC components are often estimated independently, when in fact they are coupled. We provide a novel assessment of global land carbon fluxes (1800-2015) that integrates land-use effects with the effects of changing climate and CO2 on ecosystem productivity. For this, we use a new land-use enabled Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) version of the CABLE land surface model, suitable for use in attributing changes in terrestrial carbon balance, and in predicting changes in vegetation cover and associated effects on land-atmosphere exchange. In this model, land-use-change is driven by prescribed gross land-use transitions and harvest areas, which are converted to changes in land-use area and transfer of carbon between pools (soil, litter, biomass, harvested wood products and cleared wood pools). A novel aspect is the treatment of secondary woody vegetation via the coupling between the land-use module and the POP (Populations Order Physiology) module for woody demography and disturbance-mediated landscape heterogeneity. Land-use transitions to and from secondary forest tiles modify the patch age distribution within secondary-vegetated tiles, in turn affecting biomass accumulation and turnover rates and hence the magnitude of the secondary forest sink. The resulting secondary forest patch age distribution also influences the magnitude of the secondary forest harvest and clearance fluxes

  8. Dynamics of energy technologies and global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grubler, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Victor, D.G.

    1999-01-01

    Technological choices largely determine the long-term characteristics of industrial society, including impacts on the natural environment. However, the treatment of technology in existing models that are used to project economic and environmental futures remains highly stylized. Based on work over two decades at IIASA, we present a useful typology for technology analysis and discuss methods that can be used to analyze the impact of technological changes on the global environment, especially global warming. Our focus is energy technologies, the main source of many atmospheric environmental problems. We show that much improved treatment of technology is possible with a combination of historical analysis and new modeling techniques. In the historical record, we identify characteristic 'learning rates' that allow simple quantified characterization of the improvement in cost and performance due to cumulative experience and investments. We also identify patterns, processes and timescales that typify the diffusion of new technologies in competitive markets. Technologies that are long-lived and are components of interlocking networks typically require the longest time to diffuse and co-evolve with other technologies in the network; such network effects yield high barriers to entry even for superior competitors. These simple observations allow three improvements to modeling of technological change and its consequences for global environmental change. One is that the replacement of long-lived infrastructures over time has also replaced the fuels that power the economy to yield progressively more energy per unit of carbon pollution - from coal to oil to gas. Such replacement has 'decarbonized' the global primary energy supply 0.3% per year. In contrast, most baseline projections for emissions of carbon, the chief cause of global warming, ignore this robust historical trend and show Iittle or no decarbonization. A second improvement is that by incorporating learning curves and

  9. National and global greenhouse gas dynamics of different forest management and wood use scenarios: a model-based assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Werner, Frank; Taverna, Ruedi; Hofer, Peter; Thuerig, Esther; Kaufmann, Edgar

    2010-01-01

    An increased use of wood products and an adequate management of forests can help to mitigate climate change. However, planning horizons and response time to changes in forest management are usually long and the respective GHG effects related to the use of wood depend on the availability of harvested wood. Therefore, an integral long-term strategic approach is required to formulate the most effective forest and wood management strategies for mitigating climate change. The greenhouse gas (GHG) dynamics related to the production, use and disposal of wood products are manifold and show a complex time pattern. On the one hand, wood products can be considered as a carbon pool, as is the forest itself. On the other hand, an increased use of wood can lead to the substitution of usually more energy-intense materials and to the substitution of fossil fuels when the thermal energy of wood is recovered. Country-specific import/export flows of wood products and their alternative products as well as their processing stage have to be considered if substitution effects are assessed on a national basis. We present an integral model-based approach to evaluate the GHG impacts of various forest management and wood use scenarios. Our approach allows us to analyse the complex temporal and spatial patterns of GHG emissions and removals including trade-offs of different forest management and wood use strategies. This study shows that the contributions of the forestry and timber sector to mitigate climate change can be optimized with the following key recommendations: (1) the maximum possible, sustainable increment should be generated in the forest, taking into account biodiversity conservation as well as the long-term preservation of soil quality and growth performance; (2) this increment should be harvested continuously; (3) the harvested wood should be processed in accordance with the principle of cascade use, i.e. first be used as a material as long as possible, preferably in

  10. Coherent regimes of globally coupled dynamical systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Monte, Silvia; D'ovidio, Francesco; Mosekilde, Erik

    2003-01-01

    This Letter presents a method by which the mean field dynamics of a population of dynamical systems with parameter diversity and global coupling can be described in terms of a few macroscopic degrees of freedom. The method applies to populations of any size and functional form in the region...

  11. The Global Flood Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, P.; Huddelston, M.; Michel, G.; Thompson, S.; Heynert, K.; Pickering, C.; Abbott Donnelly, I.; Fewtrell, T.; Galy, H.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.; Weerts, A.; Nixon, S.; Davies, P.; Schiferli, D.

    2012-04-01

    Recently, a Global Flood Model (GFM) initiative has been proposed by Willis, UK Met Office, Esri, Deltares and IBM. The idea is to create a global community platform that enables better understanding of the complexities of flood risk assessment to better support the decisions, education and communication needed to mitigate flood risk. The GFM will provide tools for assessing the risk of floods, for devising mitigation strategies such as land-use changes and infrastructure improvements, and for enabling effective pre- and post-flood event response. The GFM combines humanitarian and commercial motives. It will benefit: - The public, seeking to preserve personal safety and property; - State and local governments, seeking to safeguard economic activity, and improve resilience; - NGOs, similarly seeking to respond proactively to flood events; - The insurance sector, seeking to understand and price flood risk; - Large corporations, seeking to protect global operations and supply chains. The GFM is an integrated and transparent set of modules, each composed of models and data. For each module, there are two core elements: a live "reference version" (a worked example) and a framework of specifications, which will allow development of alternative versions. In the future, users will be able to work with the reference version or substitute their own models and data. If these meet the specification for the relevant module, they will interoperate with the rest of the GFM. Some "crowd-sourced" modules could even be accredited and published to the wider GFM community. Our intent is to build on existing public, private and academic work, improve local adoption, and stimulate the development of multiple - but compatible - alternatives, so strengthening mankind's ability to manage flood impacts. The GFM is being developed and managed by a non-profit organization created for the purpose. The business model will be inspired from open source software (eg Linux): - for non-profit usage

  12. Global Volcano Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, R. S. J.; Loughlin, S. C.; Cottrell, E.; Valentine, G.; Newhall, C.; Jolly, G.; Papale, P.; Takarada, S.; Crosweller, S.; Nayembil, M.; Arora, B.; Lowndes, J.; Connor, C.; Eichelberger, J.; Nadim, F.; Smolka, A.; Michel, G.; Muir-Wood, R.; Horwell, C.

    2012-04-01

    Over 600 million people live close enough to active volcanoes to be affected when they erupt. Volcanic eruptions cause loss of life, significant economic losses and severe disruption to people's lives, as highlighted by the recent eruption of Mount Merapi in Indonesia. The eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland in 2010 illustrated the potential of even small eruptions to have major impact on the modern world through disruption of complex critical infrastructure and business. The effects in the developing world on economic growth and development can be severe. There is evidence that large eruptions can cause a change in the earth's climate for several years afterwards. Aside from meteor impact and possibly an extreme solar event, very large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions may be the only natural hazard that could cause a global catastrophe. GVM is a growing international collaboration that aims to create a sustainable, accessible information platform on volcanic hazard and risk. We are designing and developing an integrated database system of volcanic hazards, vulnerability and exposure with internationally agreed metadata standards. GVM will establish methodologies for analysis of the data (eg vulnerability indices) to inform risk assessment, develop complementary hazards models and create relevant hazards and risk assessment tools. GVM will develop the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences. NERC is funding the start-up of this initiative for three years from November 2011. GVM builds directly on the VOGRIPA project started as part of the GRIP (Global Risk Identification Programme) in 2004 under the auspices of the World Bank and UN. Major international initiatives and partners such as the Smithsonian Institution - Global Volcanism Program, State University of New York at Buffalo - VHub, Earth Observatory of Singapore - WOVOdat and many others underpin GVM.

  13. Challenging the planetary boundaries II: Assessing the sustainable global population and phosphate supply, using a systems dynamics assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sverdrup, Harald U.; Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Peak phosphorus supply behaviour. → Recycling essential for phosphorus supply. → Phosphorus supply is connected to food security. - Abstract: A systems dynamics model was developed to assess the planetary boundary for P supply in relation to use by human society. It is concluded that present day use rates and poor recycling rates of P are unsustainable at timescales beyond 100+ a. The predictions made suggest that P will become a scarce and expensive material in the future. The study shows clearly that market mechanisms alone will not be able to secure an efficient use before a large part of the resource will have been allowed to dissipate into the natural environment. It is suggested that population size management and effective recycling measures must be planned long term to avoid unpleasant consequences of hunger and necessary corrections imposed on society by mass balance and thermodynamics.

  14. Geography of Global Forest Carbon Stocks & Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saatchi, S. S.; Yu, Y.; Xu, L.; Yang, Y.; Fore, A.; Ganguly, S.; Nemani, R. R.; Zhang, G.; Lefsky, M. A.; Sun, G.; Woodall, C. W.; Naesset, E.; Seibt, U. H.

    2014-12-01

    Spatially explicit distribution of carbon stocks and dynamics in global forests can greatly reduce the uncertainty in the terrestrial portion of the global carbon cycle by improving estimates of emissions and uptakes from land use activities, and help with green house gas inventory at regional and national scales. Here, we produce the first global distribution of carbon stocks in living woody biomass at ~ 100 m (1-ha) resolution for circa 2005 from a combination of satellite observations and ground inventory data. The total carbon stored in live woody biomass is estimated to be 337 PgC with 258 PgC in aboveground and 79 PgC in roots, and partitioned globally in boreal (20%), tropical evergreen (50%), temperate (12%), and woodland savanna and shrublands (15%). We use a combination of satellite observations of tree height, remote sensing data on deforestation and degradation to quantify the dynamics of these forests at the biome level globally and provide geographical distribution of carbon storage dynamics in terms sinks and sources globally.

  15. Reconstructing a lost Eocene Paradise, Part II: On the utility of dynamic global vegetation models in pre-Quaternary climate studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shellito, Cindy J.; Sloan, Lisa C.

    2006-02-01

    Models that allow vegetation to respond to and interact with climate provide a unique method for addressing questions regarding feedbacks between the ecosystem and climate in pre-Quaternary time periods. In this paper, we consider how Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), which have been developed for simulations with present day climate, can be used for paleoclimate studies. We begin with a series of tests in the NCAR Land Surface Model (LSM)-DGVM with Eocene geography to examine (1) the effect of removing C 4 grasses from the available plant functional types in the model; (2) model sensitivity to a change in soil texture; and (3), model sensitivity to a change in the value of pCO 2 used in the photosynthetic rate equations. The tests were designed to highlight some of the challenges of using these models and prompt discussion of possible improvements. We discuss how lack of detail in model boundary conditions, uncertainties in the application of modern plant functional types to paleo-flora simulations, and inaccuracies in the model climatology used to drive the DGVM can affect interpretation of model results. However, we also review a number of DGVM features that can facilitate understanding of past climates and offer suggestions for improving paleo-DGVM studies.

  16. Thermal structure and dynamics of the Martian upper atmosphere at solar minimum from global circulation model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Moffat-Griffin

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Simulations of the Martian upper atmosphere have been produced from a self-consistent three-dimensional numerical model of the Martian thermosphere and ionosphere, called MarTIM. It covers an altitude range of 60 km to the upper thermosphere, usually at least 250 km altitude. A radiation scheme is included that allows the main sources of energy input, EUV/UV and IR absorption by CO2 and CO, to be calculated. CO2, N2 and O are treated as the major gases in MarTIM, and are mutually diffused (though neutral chemistry is ignored. The densities of other species (the minor gases, CO, Ar, O2 and NO, are based on diffusive equilibrium above the turbopause. The ionosphere is calculated from a simple photoionisation and charge exchange routine though in this paper we will only consider the thermal and dynamic structure of the neutral atmosphere at solar minimum conditions. The semi-diurnal (2,2 migrating tide, introduced at MarTIM's lower boundary, affects the dynamics up to 130 km. The Mars Climate Database (Lewis et al., 2001 can be used as a lower boundary in MarTIM. The effect of this is to increase wind speeds in the thermosphere and to produce small-scale structures throughout the thermosphere. Temperature profiles are in good agreement with Pathfinder results. Wind velocities are slightly lower compared to analysis of MGS accelerometer data (Withers, 2003. The novel step-by-step approach of adding in new features to MarTIM has resulted in further understanding of the drivers of the Martian thermosphere.

  17. Thermal structure and dynamics of the Martian upper atmosphere at solar minimum from global circulation model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Moffat-Griffin

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Simulations of the Martian upper atmosphere have been produced from a self-consistent three-dimensional numerical model of the Martian thermosphere and ionosphere, called MarTIM. It covers an altitude range of 60 km to the upper thermosphere, usually at least 250 km altitude. A radiation scheme is included that allows the main sources of energy input, EUV/UV and IR absorption by CO2 and CO, to be calculated. CO2, N2 and O are treated as the major gases in MarTIM, and are mutually diffused (though neutral chemistry is ignored. The densities of other species (the minor gases, CO, Ar, O2 and NO, are based on diffusive equilibrium above the turbopause. The ionosphere is calculated from a simple photoionisation and charge exchange routine though in this paper we will only consider the thermal and dynamic structure of the neutral atmosphere at solar minimum conditions. The semi-diurnal (2,2 migrating tide, introduced at MarTIM's lower boundary, affects the dynamics up to 130 km. The Mars Climate Database (Lewis et al., 2001 can be used as a lower boundary in MarTIM. The effect of this is to increase wind speeds in the thermosphere and to produce small-scale structures throughout the thermosphere. Temperature profiles are in good agreement with Pathfinder results. Wind velocities are slightly lower compared to analysis of MGS accelerometer data (Withers, 2003. The novel step-by-step approach of adding in new features to MarTIM has resulted in further understanding of the drivers of the Martian thermosphere.

  18. Using nudging to improve global-regional dynamic consistency in limited-area climate modeling: What should we nudge?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omrani, Hiba; Drobinski, Philippe; Dubos, Thomas

    2015-03-01

    Regional climate modelling sometimes requires that the regional model be nudged towards the large-scale driving data to avoid the development of inconsistencies between them. These inconsistencies are known to produce large surface temperature and rainfall artefacts. Therefore, it is essential to maintain the synoptic circulation within the simulation domain consistent with the synoptic circulation at the domain boundaries. Nudging techniques, initially developed for data assimilation purposes, are increasingly used in regional climate modeling and offer a workaround to this issue. In this context, several questions on the "optimal" use of nudging are still open. In this study we focus on a specific question which is: What variable should we nudge? in order to maintain the consistencies between the regional model and the driving fields as much as possible. For that, a "Big Brother Experiment", where a reference atmospheric state is known, is conducted using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model over the Euro-Mediterranean region. A set of 22 3-month simulations is performed with different sets of nudged variables and nudging options (no nudging, indiscriminate nudging, spectral nudging) for summer and winter. The results show that nudging clearly improves the model capacity to reproduce the reference fields. However the skill scores depend on the set of variables used to nudge the regional climate simulations. Nudging the tropospheric horizontal wind is by far the key variable to nudge to simulate correctly surface temperature and wind, and rainfall. To a lesser extent, nudging tropospheric temperature also contributes to significantly improve the simulations. Indeed, nudging tropospheric wind or temperature directly impacts the simulation of the tropospheric geopotential height and thus the synoptic scale atmospheric circulation. Nudging moisture improves the precipitation but the impact on the other fields (wind and temperature) is not significant. As

  19. The Jena Diversity-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (JeDi-DGVM: a diverse approach to representing terrestrial biogeography and biogeochemistry based on plant functional trade-offs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Pavlick

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Terrestrial biosphere models typically abstract the immense diversity of vegetation forms and functioning into a relatively small set of predefined semi-empirical plant functional types (PFTs. There is growing evidence, however, from the field ecology community as well as from modelling studies that current PFT schemes may not adequately represent the observed variations in plant functional traits and their effect on ecosystem functioning. In this paper, we introduce the Jena Diversity-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (JeDi-DGVM as a new approach to terrestrial biosphere modelling with a richer representation of functional diversity than traditional modelling approaches based on a small number of fixed PFTs. JeDi-DGVM simulates the performance of a large number of randomly generated plant growth strategies, each defined by a set of 15 trait parameters which characterize various aspects of plant functioning including carbon allocation, ecophysiology and phenology. Each trait parameter is involved in one or more functional trade-offs. These trade-offs ultimately determine whether a strategy is able to survive under the climatic conditions in a given model grid cell and its performance relative to the other strategies. The biogeochemical fluxes and land surface properties of the individual strategies are aggregated to the grid-cell scale using a mass-based weighting scheme. We evaluate the simulated global biogeochemical patterns against a variety of field and satellite-based observations following a protocol established by the Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project. The land surface fluxes and vegetation structural properties are reasonably well simulated by JeDi-DGVM, and compare favourably with other state-of-the-art global vegetation models. We also evaluate the simulated patterns of functional diversity and the sensitivity of the JeDi-DGVM modelling approach to the number of sampled strategies. Altogether, the results demonstrate the

  20. Tractable dynamic global games and applications

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Mathevet, L.; Steiner, Jakub

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 148, č. 6 (2013), s. 2583-2619 ISSN 0022-0531 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA13-34759S Grant - others:UK(CZ) UNCE 204005/2012 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : global games * dynamic game * coordination Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.919, year: 2013

  1. Global patterns and controls of soil organic carbon dynamics as simulated by multiple terrestrial biosphere models: Current status and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Hanqin; Lu, Chaoqun; Yang, Jia; Banger, Kamaljit; Huntzinger, Deborah N; Schwalm, Christopher R; Michalak, Anna M; Cook, Robert; Ciais, Philippe; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Ito, Akihiko; Jain, Atul K; Lei, Huimin; Mao, Jiafu; Pan, Shufen; Post, Wilfred M; Peng, Shushi; Poulter, Benjamin; Ren, Wei; Ricciuto, Daniel; Schaefer, Kevin; Shi, Xiaoying; Tao, Bo; Wang, Weile; Wei, Yaxing; Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Bowen; Zeng, Ning

    2015-06-01

    Soil is the largest organic carbon (C) pool of terrestrial ecosystems, and C loss from soil accounts for a large proportion of land-atmosphere C exchange. Therefore, a small change in soil organic C (SOC) can affect atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration and climate change. In the past decades, a wide variety of studies have been conducted to quantify global SOC stocks and soil C exchange with the atmosphere through site measurements, inventories, and empirical/process-based modeling. However, these estimates are highly uncertain, and identifying major driving forces controlling soil C dynamics remains a key research challenge. This study has compiled century-long (1901-2010) estimates of SOC storage and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) from 10 terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) in the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project and two observation-based data sets. The 10 TBM ensemble shows that global SOC estimate ranges from 425 to 2111 Pg C (1 Pg = 10 15  g) with a median value of 1158 Pg C in 2010. The models estimate a broad range of Rh from 35 to 69 Pg C yr -1 with a median value of 51 Pg C yr -1 during 2001-2010. The largest uncertainty in SOC stocks exists in the 40-65°N latitude whereas the largest cross-model divergence in Rh are in the tropics. The modeled SOC change during 1901-2010 ranges from -70 Pg C to 86 Pg C, but in some models the SOC change has a different sign from the change of total C stock, implying very different contribution of vegetation and soil pools in determining the terrestrial C budget among models. The model ensemble-estimated mean residence time of SOC shows a reduction of 3.4 years over the past century, which accelerate C cycling through the land biosphere. All the models agreed that climate and land use changes decreased SOC stocks, while elevated atmospheric CO 2 and nitrogen deposition over intact ecosystems increased SOC stocks-even though the responses varied

  2. Local and global measures of shape dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Driscoll, Meghan K; Losert, Wolfgang; Fourkas, John T

    2011-01-01

    The shape and motion of cells can yield significant insights into the internal operation of a cell. We present a simple, yet versatile, framework that provides multiple metrics of cell shape and cell shape dynamics. Analysis of migrating Dictyostelium discoideum cells shows that global and local metrics highlight distinct cellular processes. For example, a global measure of shape shows rhythmic oscillations suggestive of contractions, whereas a local measure of shape shows wave-like dynamics indicative of protrusions. From a local measure of dynamic shape, or boundary motion, we extract the times and locations of protrusions and retractions. We find that protrusions zigzag, while retractions remain roughly stationary along the boundary. We do not observe any temporal relationship between protrusions and retractions. Our analysis framework also provides metrics of the boundary as whole. For example, as the cell speed increases, we find that the cell shape becomes more elongated. We also observe that while extensions and retractions have similar areas, their shapes differ

  3. Calibration of the maximum carboxylation velocity (Vcmax using data mining techniques and ecophysiological data from the Brazilian semiarid region, for use in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. F. C. Rezende

    Full Text Available Abstract The semiarid region of northeastern Brazil, the Caatinga, is extremely important due to its biodiversity and endemism. Measurements of plant physiology are crucial to the calibration of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs that are currently used to simulate the responses of vegetation in face of global changes. In a field work realized in an area of preserved Caatinga forest located in Petrolina, Pernambuco, measurements of carbon assimilation (in response to light and CO2 were performed on 11 individuals of Poincianella microphylla, a native species that is abundant in this region. These data were used to calibrate the maximum carboxylation velocity (Vcmax used in the INLAND model. The calibration techniques used were Multiple Linear Regression (MLR, and data mining techniques as the Classification And Regression Tree (CART and K-MEANS. The results were compared to the UNCALIBRATED model. It was found that simulated Gross Primary Productivity (GPP reached 72% of observed GPP when using the calibrated Vcmax values, whereas the UNCALIBRATED approach accounted for 42% of observed GPP. Thus, this work shows the benefits of calibrating DGVMs using field ecophysiological measurements, especially in areas where field data is scarce or non-existent, such as in the Caatinga.

  4. Representing anthropogenic gross land use change, wood harvest, and forest age dynamics in a global vegetation model ORCHIDEE-MICT v8.4.2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Chao; Ciais, Philippe; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Li, Wei; McGrath, Matthew J.; Chang, Jinfeng; Peng, Shushi

    2018-01-01

    Land use change (LUC) is among the main anthropogenic disturbances in the global carbon cycle. Here we present the model developments in a global dynamic vegetation model ORCHIDEE-MICT v8.4.2 for a more realistic representation of LUC processes. First, we included gross land use change (primarily shifting cultivation) and forest wood harvest in addition to net land use change. Second, we included sub-grid evenly aged land cohorts to represent secondary forests and to keep track of the transient stage of agricultural lands since LUC. Combination of these two features allows the simulation of shifting cultivation with a rotation length involving mainly secondary forests instead of primary ones. Furthermore, a set of decision rules regarding the land cohorts to be targeted in different LUC processes have been implemented. Idealized site-scale simulation has been performed for miombo woodlands in southern Africa assuming an annual land turnover rate of 5 % grid cell area between forest and cropland. The result shows that the model can correctly represent forest recovery and cohort aging arising from agricultural abandonment. Such a land turnover process, even though without a net change in land cover, yields carbon emissions largely due to the imbalance between the fast release from forest clearing and the slow uptake from agricultural abandonment. The simulation with sub-grid land cohorts gives lower emissions than without, mainly because the cleared secondary forests have a lower biomass carbon stock than the mature forests that are otherwise cleared when sub-grid land cohorts are not considered. Over the region of southern Africa, the model is able to account for changes in different forest cohort areas along with the historical changes in different LUC activities, including regrowth of old forests when LUC area decreases. Our developments provide possibilities to account for continental or global forest demographic change resulting from past anthropogenic and

  5. Dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpechko, A.; Manzini, E.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models often simulate dynamical warming of the Arctic stratosphere as a response to global warming in association with a strengthening of the deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation; however until now, no satisfactory mechanism for such a response has been suggested. Here we investigate the role of stationary planetary waves in the dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation to global warming by analysing simulations performed with atmosphere-only Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models driven by prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We focus on December-February (DJF) because this is the period when the troposphere and stratosphere are strongly coupled. When forced by increased SSTs, all the models analysed here simulate Arctic stratosphere dynamical warming, mostly due to increased upward propagation of quasi-stationary wave number 1, as diagnosed by the meridional eddy heat flux. By analysing intermodel spread in the response we show that the stratospheric warming and increased wave flux to the stratosphere correlate with the strengthening of the zonal winds in subtropics and mid-latitudes near the tropopause- a robust response to global warming. These results support previous studies of future Arctic stratosphere changes and suggest a dynamical warming of the Arctic wintertime polar vortex as the most likely response to global warming.

  6. Global attractors and extinction dynamics of cyclically competing species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rulands, Steffen; Zielinski, Alejandro; Frey, Erwin

    2013-05-01

    Transitions to absorbing states are of fundamental importance in nonequilibrium physics as well as ecology. In ecology, absorbing states correspond to the extinction of species. We here study the spatial population dynamics of three cyclically interacting species. The interaction scheme comprises both direct competition between species as in the cyclic Lotka-Volterra model, and separated selection and reproduction processes as in the May-Leonard model. We show that the dynamic processes leading to the transient maintenance of biodiversity are closely linked to attractors of the nonlinear dynamics for the overall species' concentrations. The characteristics of these global attractors change qualitatively at certain threshold values of the mobility and depend on the relative strength of the different types of competition between species. They give information about the scaling of extinction times with the system size and thereby the stability of biodiversity. We define an effective free energy as the negative logarithm of the probability to find the system in a specific global state before reaching one of the absorbing states. The global attractors then correspond to minima of this effective energy landscape and determine the most probable values for the species' global concentrations. As in equilibrium thermodynamics, qualitative changes in the effective free energy landscape indicate and characterize the underlying nonequilibrium phase transitions. We provide the complete phase diagrams for the population dynamics and give a comprehensive analysis of the spatio-temporal dynamics and routes to extinction in the respective phases.

  7. A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frey-Buness, A.; Heimann, D.; Sausen, R.; Schumann, U.

    1994-01-01

    A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations is described. The procedure is based on the assumption that any regional climate is associated with a specific frequency distribution of classified large-scale weather situations. The frequency distributions are derived from multi-year episodes of low resolution global climate simulations. Highly resolved regional distributions of wind and temperature are calculated with a regional model for each class of large-scale weather situation. They are statistically evaluated by weighting them with the according climate-specific frequency. The procedure is exemplarily applied to the Alpine region for a global climate simulation of the present climate. (orig.)

  8. Global Dynamics in Travel, Tourism, and Hospitality

    OpenAIRE

    Pappas, Nikolaos; Bregoli, Ilenia

    2016-01-01

    Worldwide, tourism is the third largest economic activity in direct earnings after petroleum and automobile industries, and by far the largest one if indirect earnings are also taken into consideration. Taking into account the profound economic impact the tourism and hospitality industries can have on regions and cities around the world, further research in this area is critical.\\ud \\ud Global Dynamics in Travel, Tourism, and Hospitality takes a holistic approach to tourism and hospitality op...

  9. Default Mode Dynamics for Global Functional Integration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vatansever, Deniz; Menon, David K; Manktelow, Anne E; Sahakian, Barbara J; Stamatakis, Emmanuel A

    2015-11-18

    The default mode network (DMN) has been traditionally assumed to hinder behavioral performance in externally focused, goal-directed paradigms and to provide no active contribution to human cognition. However, recent evidence suggests greater DMN activity in an array of tasks, especially those that involve self-referential and memory-based processing. Although data that robustly demonstrate a comprehensive functional role for DMN remains relatively scarce, the global workspace framework, which implicates the DMN in global information integration for conscious processing, can potentially provide an explanation for the broad range of higher-order paradigms that report DMN involvement. We used graph theoretical measures to assess the contribution of the DMN to global functional connectivity dynamics in 22 healthy volunteers during an fMRI-based n-back working-memory paradigm with parametric increases in difficulty. Our predominant finding is that brain modularity decreases with greater task demands, thus adapting a more global workspace configuration, in direct relation to increases in reaction times to correct responses. Flexible default mode regions dynamically switch community memberships and display significant changes in their nodal participation coefficient and strength, which may reflect the observed whole-brain changes in functional connectivity architecture. These findings have important implications for our understanding of healthy brain function, as they suggest a central role for the DMN in higher cognitive processing. The default mode network (DMN) has been shown to increase its activity during the absence of external stimulation, and hence was historically assumed to disengage during goal-directed tasks. Recent evidence, however, implicates the DMN in self-referential and memory-based processing. We provide robust evidence for this network's active contribution to working memory by revealing dynamic reconfiguration in its interactions with other networks

  10. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Møller Larsen, Marcus; Bharati, Pratyush

    -zone spread allowing for 24/7 service delivery and access to resources. Based on comprehensive data we show that providers are likely to establish GDM configurations when clients value access to globally distributed talent pools and speed of service delivery, and in particular when services are highly...

  11. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Møller Larsen, Marcus; Bharati, Pratyush M.

    2015-01-01

    antecedents and contingencies of setting up GDM structures. Based on comprehensive data we show that providers are likely to establish GDM location configurations when clients value access to globally distributed talent and speed of service delivery, in particular when services are highly commoditized...

  12. Generic linking of finite element models for non-linear static and global dynamic analyses for aircraft structures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Wit, A.J.; Akcay-Perdahcioglu, Didem; van den Brink, W.M.; de Boer, Andries; Rolfes, R.; Jansen, E.L.

    2011-01-01

    Depending on the type of analysis, Finite Element(FE) models of different fidelity are necessary. Creating these models manually is a labor intensive task. This paper discusses a generic approach for generating FE models of different fidelity from a single reference FE model. These different

  13. Dynamical Analysis of the Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Tenreiro Machado

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Global warming is a major concern nowadays. Weather conditions are changing, and it seems that human activity is one of the main causes. In fact, since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels has increased the nonnatural emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that absorbs the infrared radiation produced by the reflection of the sunlight on the Earth’s surface, trapping the heat in the atmosphere. Global warming and the associated climate changes are being the subject of intensive research due to their major impact on social, economic, and health aspects of human life. This paper studies the global warming trend in the perspective of dynamical systems and fractional calculus, which is a new standpoint in this context. Worldwide distributed meteorological stations and temperature records for the last 100 years are analysed. It is shown that the application of Fourier transforms and power law trend lines leads to an assertive representation of the global warming dynamics and a simpler analysis of its characteristics.

  14. Modeling dynamic swarms

    KAUST Repository

    Ghanem, Bernard; Ahuja, Narendra

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes the problem of modeling video sequences of dynamic swarms (DSs). We define a DS as a large layout of stochastically repetitive spatial configurations of dynamic objects (swarm elements) whose motions exhibit local spatiotemporal

  15. Variation in stem mortality rates determines patterns of above-ground biomass in Amazonian forests: implications for dynamic global vegetation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Michelle O; Galbraith, David; Gloor, Manuel; De Deurwaerder, Hannes; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Verbeeck, Hans; von Randow, Celso; Monteagudo, Abel; Phillips, Oliver L; Brienen, Roel J W; Feldpausch, Ted R; Lopez Gonzalez, Gabriela; Fauset, Sophie; Quesada, Carlos A; Christoffersen, Bradley; Ciais, Philippe; Sampaio, Gilvan; Kruijt, Bart; Meir, Patrick; Moorcroft, Paul; Zhang, Ke; Alvarez-Davila, Esteban; Alves de Oliveira, Atila; Amaral, Ieda; Andrade, Ana; Aragao, Luiz E O C; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Arets, Eric J M M; Arroyo, Luzmila; Aymard, Gerardo A; Baraloto, Christopher; Barroso, Jocely; Bonal, Damien; Boot, Rene; Camargo, Jose; Chave, Jerome; Cogollo, Alvaro; Cornejo Valverde, Fernando; Lola da Costa, Antonio C; Di Fiore, Anthony; Ferreira, Leandro; Higuchi, Niro; Honorio, Euridice N; Killeen, Tim J; Laurance, Susan G; Laurance, William F; Licona, Juan; Lovejoy, Thomas; Malhi, Yadvinder; Marimon, Bia; Marimon, Ben Hur; Matos, Darley C L; Mendoza, Casimiro; Neill, David A; Pardo, Guido; Peña-Claros, Marielos; Pitman, Nigel C A; Poorter, Lourens; Prieto, Adriana; Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma; Roopsind, Anand; Rudas, Agustin; Salomao, Rafael P; Silveira, Marcos; Stropp, Juliana; Ter Steege, Hans; Terborgh, John; Thomas, Raquel; Toledo, Marisol; Torres-Lezama, Armando; van der Heijden, Geertje M F; Vasquez, Rodolfo; Guimarães Vieira, Ima Cèlia; Vilanova, Emilio; Vos, Vincent A; Baker, Timothy R

    2016-12-01

    Understanding the processes that determine above-ground biomass (AGB) in Amazonian forests is important for predicting the sensitivity of these ecosystems to environmental change and for designing and evaluating dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). AGB is determined by inputs from woody productivity [woody net primary productivity (NPP)] and the rate at which carbon is lost through tree mortality. Here, we test whether two direct metrics of tree mortality (the absolute rate of woody biomass loss and the rate of stem mortality) and/or woody NPP, control variation in AGB among 167 plots in intact forest across Amazonia. We then compare these relationships and the observed variation in AGB and woody NPP with the predictions of four DGVMs. The observations show that stem mortality rates, rather than absolute rates of woody biomass loss, are the most important predictor of AGB, which is consistent with the importance of stand size structure for determining spatial variation in AGB. The relationship between stem mortality rates and AGB varies among different regions of Amazonia, indicating that variation in wood density and height/diameter relationships also influences AGB. In contrast to previous findings, we find that woody NPP is not correlated with stem mortality rates and is weakly positively correlated with AGB. Across the four models, basin-wide average AGB is similar to the mean of the observations. However, the models consistently overestimate woody NPP and poorly represent the spatial patterns of both AGB and woody NPP estimated using plot data. In marked contrast to the observations, DGVMs typically show strong positive relationships between woody NPP and AGB. Resolving these differences will require incorporating forest size structure, mechanistic models of stem mortality and variation in functional composition in DGVMs. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varela, M.

    2001-01-01

    The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this trend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy system including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs

  17. Climate change and fire effects on a prairie–woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, David A; Bachelet, Dominique M; Symstad, Amy J

    2013-01-01

    Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions

  18. Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, David A; Bachelet, Dominique M; Symstad, Amy J

    2013-12-01

    Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine-prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and

  19. Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.

    2013-01-01

    Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions

  20. Global nuclear material control model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dreicer, J.S.; Rutherford, D.A.

    1996-01-01

    The nuclear danger can be reduced by a system for global management, protection, control, and accounting as part of a disposition program for special nuclear materials. The development of an international fissile material management and control regime requires conceptual research supported by an analytical and modeling tool that treats the nuclear fuel cycle as a complete system. Such a tool must represent the fundamental data, information, and capabilities of the fuel cycle including an assessment of the global distribution of military and civilian fissile material inventories, a representation of the proliferation pertinent physical processes, and a framework supportive of national or international perspective. They have developed a prototype global nuclear material management and control systems analysis capability, the Global Nuclear Material Control (GNMC) model. The GNMC model establishes the framework for evaluating the global production, disposition, and safeguards and security requirements for fissile nuclear material

  1. Dynamic Latent Classification Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhong, Shengtong; Martínez, Ana M.; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    as possible. Motivated by this problem setting, we propose a generative model for dynamic classification in continuous domains. At each time point the model can be seen as combining a naive Bayes model with a mixture of factor analyzers (FA). The latent variables of the FA are used to capture the dynamics...

  2. Effects of Telecoupling on Global Vegetation Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viña, A.; Liu, J.

    2016-12-01

    With the ever increasing trend in telecoupling processes, such as international trade, all countries around the world are becoming more interdependent. However, the effects of this growing interdependence on vegetation (e.g., shifts in the geographic extent and distribution) remain unknown even though vegetation dynamics are crucially important for food production, carbon sequestration, provision of other ecosystem services, and biodiversity conservation. In this study we evaluate the effects of international trade on the spatio-temporal trajectories of vegetation at national and global scales, using vegetation index imagery collected over more than three decades by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite sensor series together with concurrent national and international data on international trade (and its associated movement of people, goods, services and information). The spatio-temporal trajectories of vegetation are obtained using the scale of fluctuation technique, which is based on the decomposition of the AVHRR image time series to obtain information on its spatial dependence structure over time. Similar to the correlation length, the scale of fluctuation corresponds to the range over which fluctuations in the vegetation index are spatially correlated. Results indicate that global vegetation has changed drastically over the last three decades. These changes are not uniform across space, with hotspots in active trading countries. This study not only has direct implications for understanding global vegetation dynamics, but also sheds important insights on the complexity of human-nature interactions across telecoupled systems.

  3. GLOMO - Global Mobility Model: Beschreibung und Ergebnisse

    OpenAIRE

    Kühn, André; Novinsky, Patrick; Schade, Wolfgang

    2014-01-01

    The development of both, emerging markets as well as the already establish markets (USA, Japan, Europe), is highly relevant for future success of the export-oriented German automotive industry. This paper describes the so called Global Mobility Model (GLOMO) based on the system dynamics approach, which simulates the future development of car sales by segment and drive technology. The modularized model contains population, income and GDP development in order to describe the framework in the mo...

  4. Equivalent Dynamic Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Peter C M

    2017-01-01

    Equivalences of two classes of dynamic models for weakly stationary multivariate time series are discussed: dynamic factor models and autoregressive models. It is shown that exploratory dynamic factor models can be rotated, yielding an infinite set of equivalent solutions for any observed series. It also is shown that dynamic factor models with lagged factor loadings are not equivalent to the currently popular state-space models, and that restriction of attention to the latter type of models may yield invalid results. The known equivalent vector autoregressive model types, standard and structural, are given a new interpretation in which they are conceived of as the extremes of an innovating type of hybrid vector autoregressive models. It is shown that consideration of hybrid models solves many problems, in particular with Granger causality testing.

  5. Assessment of the potential impacts of plant traits across environments by combining global sensitivity analysis and dynamic modeling in wheat

    OpenAIRE

    Casadebaig, Pierre; Zheng, Bangyou; Chapman, Scott; Huth, Neil; Faivre, Robert; Chenu, Karine

    2015-01-01

    A crop can be viewed as a complex system with outputs (e.g. yield) that are affected by inputs of genetic, physiology, pedo-climatic and management information. Application of numerical methods for model exploration assist in evaluating the major most influential inputs, providing the simulation model is a credible description of the biological system. A sensitivity analysis was used to assess the simulated impact on yield of a suite of traits involved in major processes of crop growth and de...

  6. Century long observation constrained global dynamic downscaling and hydrologic implication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, H.; Yoshimura, K.; Chang, E.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Oki, T.

    2012-12-01

    It has been suggested that greenhouse gas induced warming climate causes the acceleration of large scale hydrologic cycles, and, indeed, many regions on the Earth have been suffered by hydrologic extremes getting more frequent. However, historical observations are not able to provide enough information in comprehensive manner to understand their long-term variability and/or global distributions. In this study, a century long high resolution global climate data is developed in order to break through existing limitations. 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) which has relatively low spatial resolution (~2.0°) and longer term availability (140 years) is dynamically downscaled into global T248 (~0.5°) resolution using Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) Global Spectral Model (GSM) by spectral nudging data assimilation technique. Also, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) observational data are adopted to reduce model dependent uncertainty. Downscaled product successfully represents realistic geographical detail keeping low frequency signal in mean state and spatiotemporal variability, while previous bias correction method fails to reproduce high frequency variability. Newly developed data is used to investigate how long-term large scale terrestrial hydrologic cycles have been changed globally and how they have been interacted with various climate modes, such as El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). As a further application, it will be used to provide atmospheric boundary condition of multiple land surface models in the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 3 (GSWP3).

  7. Soil organic matter dynamics and the global carbon cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Post, W.M.; Emanuel, W.R.; King, A.W.

    1992-01-01

    The large size and potentially long residence time of the soil organic matter pool make it an important component of the global carbon cycle. Net terrestrial primary production of about 60 Pg C·yr -1 is, over a several-year period of time, balanced by an equivalent flux of litter production and subsequent decomposition of detritus and soil organic matter. We will review many of the major factors that influence soil organic matter dynamics that need to be explicitly considered in development of global estimates of carbon turnover in the world's soils. We will also discuss current decomposition models that are general enough to be used to develop a representation of global soil organic matter dynamics

  8. Degradation of Fluorotelomer-Based Polymers Contributes to the Global Occurrence of Fluorotelomer Alcohol and Perfluoroalkyl Carboxylates: A Combined Dynamic Substance Flow and Environmental Fate Modeling Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Li; Liu, Jianguo; Hu, Jianxin; Wania, Frank

    2017-04-18

    Using coupled dynamic substance flow and environmental fate models, CiP-CAFE and BETR-Global, we investigated whether the degradation of side-chain fluorotelomer-based polymers (FTPs), mostly in waste stocks (i.e., landfills and dumps), serves as a long-term source of fluorotelomer alcohols (FTOHs) and perfluoroalkyl carboxylates (PFCAs) to the global environment. The modeling results indicate that, in the wake of the worldwide transition from long-chain to short-chain products, in-use stocks of C8 FTPs will peak and decline afterward, while the in-use stocks of C6 FTPs, and the waste stocks of both FTPs will generally grow. FTP degradation in waste stocks is making an increasing contribution to FTOH generation, the bulk of which readily migrates from waste stocks and degrades into PFCAs in the environment; the remaining part of the generated FTOHs degrade in waste stocks, which makes those stocks reservoirs that slowly release PFCAs into the environment over the long run because of the low leaching rate and extreme persistence of PFCAs. Short-chain FTPs have higher relative release rates of PFCAs from waste stocks than long-chain ones. Estimates of in-use and waste stocks of FTPs were more sensitive to the selected lifespan of finished products, while those of the emissions of FTOHs and PFCAs were more sensitive to the degradation half-life of FTPs in waste stocks. Our preliminary calculations highlight the need for environmentally sound management of obsolete FTP-containing products into the foreseeable future.

  9. The Added Value to Global Model Projections of Climate Change by Dynamical Downscaling: A Case Study over the Continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Racherla, P. N.; Shindell, D. T.; Faluvegi, G. S.

    2012-01-01

    Dynamical downscaling is being increasingly used for climate change studies, wherein the climates simulated by a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) for a historical and a future (projected) decade are used to drive a regional climate model (RCM) over a specific area. While previous studies have demonstrated that RCMs can add value to AOGCM-simulated climatologies over different world regions, it is unclear as to whether or not this translates to a better reproduction of the observed climate change therein. We address this issue over the continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF models, a state-of-the-science AOGCM and RCM, respectively. As configured here, the RCM does not effect holistic improvement in the seasonally and regionally averaged surface air temperature or precipitation for the individual historical decades. Insofar as the climate change between the two decades is concerned, the RCM does improve upon the AOGCM when nudged in the domain proper, but only modestly so. Further, the analysis indicates that there is not a strong relationship between skill in capturing climatological means and skill in capturing climate change. Though additional research would be needed to demonstrate the robustness of this finding in AOGCM/RCM models generally, the evidence indicates that, for climate change studies, the most important factor is the skill of the driving global model itself, suggesting that highest priority should be given to improving the long-range climate skill of AOGCMs.

  10. Dynamic biogeochemical provinces in the global ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reygondeau, Gabriel; Longhurst, Alan; Martinez, Elodie; Beaugrand, Gregory; Antoine, David; Maury, Olivier

    2013-12-01

    In recent decades, it has been found useful to partition the pelagic environment using the concept of biogeochemical provinces, or BGCPs, within each of which it is assumed that environmental conditions are distinguishable and unique at global scale. The boundaries between provinces respond to features of physical oceanography and, ideally, should follow seasonal and interannual changes in ocean dynamics. But this ideal has not been fulfilled except for small regions of the oceans. Moreover, BGCPs have been used only as static entities having boundaries that were originally established to compute global primary production. In the present study, a new statistical methodology based on non-parametric procedures is implemented to capture the environmental characteristics within 56 BGCPs. Four main environmental parameters (bathymetry, chlorophyll a concentration, surface temperature, and salinity) are used to infer the spatial distribution of each BGCP over 1997-2007. The resulting dynamic partition allows us to integrate changes in the distribution of BGCPs at seasonal and interannual timescales, and so introduces the possibility of detecting spatial shifts in environmental conditions.

  11. Learning Human Actions by Combining Global Dynamics and Local Appearance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Guan; Yang, Shuang; Tian, Guodong; Yuan, Chunfeng; Hu, Weiming; Maybank, Stephen J

    2014-12-01

    In this paper, we address the problem of human action recognition through combining global temporal dynamics and local visual spatio-temporal appearance features. For this purpose, in the global temporal dimension, we propose to model the motion dynamics with robust linear dynamical systems (LDSs) and use the model parameters as motion descriptors. Since LDSs live in a non-Euclidean space and the descriptors are in non-vector form, we propose a shift invariant subspace angles based distance to measure the similarity between LDSs. In the local visual dimension, we construct curved spatio-temporal cuboids along the trajectories of densely sampled feature points and describe them using histograms of oriented gradients (HOG). The distance between motion sequences is computed with the Chi-Squared histogram distance in the bag-of-words framework. Finally we perform classification using the maximum margin distance learning method by combining the global dynamic distances and the local visual distances. We evaluate our approach for action recognition on five short clips data sets, namely Weizmann, KTH, UCF sports, Hollywood2 and UCF50, as well as three long continuous data sets, namely VIRAT, ADL and CRIM13. We show competitive results as compared with current state-of-the-art methods.

  12. Archean greenstone-tonalite duality: Thermochemical mantle convection models or plate tectonics in the early Earth global dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerrich, Robert; Polat, Ali

    2006-03-01

    Mantle convection and plate tectonics are one system, because oceanic plates are cold upper thermal boundary layers of the convection cells. As a corollary, Phanerozoic-style of plate tectonics or more likely a different version of it (i.e. a larger number of slowly moving plates, or similar number of faster plates) is expected to have operated in the hotter, vigorously convecting early Earth. Despite the recent advances in understanding the origin of Archean greenstone-granitoid terranes, the question regarding the operation of plate tectonics in the early Earth remains still controversial. Numerical model outputs for the Archean Earth range from predominantly shallow to flat subduction between 4.0 and 2.5 Ga and well-established steep subduction since 2.5 Ga [Abbott, D., Drury, R., Smith, W.H.F., 1994. Flat to steep transition in subduction style. Geology 22, 937-940], to no plate tectonics but rather foundering of 1000 km sectors of basaltic crust, then "resurfaced" by upper asthenospheric mantle basaltic melts that generate the observed duality of basalts and tonalities [van Thienen, P., van den Berg, A.P., Vlaar, N.J., 2004a. Production and recycling of oceanic crust in the early earth. Tectonophysics 386, 41-65; van Thienen, P., Van den Berg, A.P., Vlaar, N.J., 2004b. On the formation of continental silicic melts in thermochemical mantle convection models: implications for early Earth. Tectonophysics 394, 111-124]. These model outputs can be tested against the geological record. Greenstone belt volcanics are composites of komatiite-basalt plateau sequences erupted from deep mantle plumes and bimodal basalt-dacite sequences having the geochemical signatures of convergent margins; i.e. horizontally imbricated plateau and island arc crust. Greenstone belts from 3.8 to 2.5 Ga include volcanic types reported from Cenozoic convergent margins including: boninites; arc picrites; and the association of adakites-Mg andesites- and Nb-enriched basalts. Archean cratons

  13. The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Polet, J.; Thio, H. K.

    2017-12-01

    The tsunamis occurred worldwide in the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but often disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

  14. Projected future vegetation changes for the northwest United States and southwest Canada at a fine spatial resolution using a dynamic global vegetation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafer, Sarah; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T.

    2015-01-01

    Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

  15. Models for Dynamic Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sales-Cruz, Mauricio; Morales Rodriguez, Ricardo; Heitzig, Martina

    2011-01-01

    This chapter covers aspects of the dynamic modelling and simulation of several complex operations that include a controlled blending tank, a direct methanol fuel cell that incorporates a multiscale model, a fluidised bed reactor, a standard chemical reactor and finally a polymerisation reactor...... be applied to formulate, analyse and solve these dynamic problems and how in the case of the fuel cell problem the model consists of coupledmeso and micro scale models. It is shown how data flows are handled between the models and how the solution is obtained within the modelling environment....

  16. Global energy modeling - A biophysical approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dale, Michael

    2010-09-15

    This paper contrasts the standard economic approach to energy modelling with energy models using a biophysical approach. Neither of these approaches includes changing energy-returns-on-investment (EROI) due to declining resource quality or the capital intensive nature of renewable energy sources. Both of these factors will become increasingly important in the future. An extension to the biophysical approach is outlined which encompasses a dynamic EROI function that explicitly incorporates technological learning. The model is used to explore several scenarios of long-term future energy supply especially concerning the global transition to renewable energy sources in the quest for a sustainable energy system.

  17. Dynamic term structure models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Martin Møller; Meldrum, Andrew

    This paper studies whether dynamic term structure models for US nominal bond yields should enforce the zero lower bound by a quadratic policy rate or a shadow rate specification. We address the question by estimating quadratic term structure models (QTSMs) and shadow rate models with at most four...

  18. Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling: An Earth Systems Modelling Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Berrien, III; Sahagian, Dork

    1997-01-01

    The Goal of the GAIM is: To advance the study of the coupled dynamics of the Earth system using as tools both data and models; to develop a strategy for the rapid development, evaluation, and application of comprehensive prognostic models of the Global Biogeochemical Subsystem which could eventually be linked with models of the Physical-Climate Subsystem; to propose, promote, and facilitate experiments with existing models or by linking subcomponent models, especially those associated with IGBP Core Projects and with WCRP efforts. Such experiments would be focused upon resolving interface issues and questions associated with developing an understanding of the prognostic behavior of key processes; to clarify key scientific issues facing the development of Global Biogeochemical Models and the coupling of these models to General Circulation Models; to assist the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process by conducting timely studies that focus upon elucidating important unresolved scientific issues associated with the changing biogeochemical cycles of the planet and upon the role of the biosphere in the physical-climate subsystem, particularly its role in the global hydrological cycle; and to advise the SC-IGBP on progress in developing comprehensive Global Biogeochemical Models and to maintain scientific liaison with the WCRP Steering Group on Global Climate Modelling.

  19. Solar atmosphere wave dynamics generated by solar global oscillating eigenmodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, M. K.; Fedun, V.; Erdélyi, R.; Zheng, R.

    2018-01-01

    The solar atmosphere exhibits a diverse range of wave phenomena, where one of the earliest discovered was the five-minute global acoustic oscillation, also referred to as the p-mode. The analysis of wave propagation in the solar atmosphere may be used as a diagnostic tool to estimate accurately the physical characteristics of the Sun's atmospheric layers. In this paper, we investigate the dynamics and upward propagation of waves which are generated by the solar global eigenmodes. We report on a series of hydrodynamic simulations of a realistically stratified model of the solar atmosphere representing its lower region from the photosphere to low corona. With the objective of modelling atmospheric perturbations, propagating from the photosphere into the chromosphere, transition region and low corona, generated by the photospheric global oscillations the simulations use photospheric drivers mimicking the solar p-modes. The drivers are spatially structured harmonics across the computational box parallel to the solar surface. The drivers perturb the atmosphere at 0.5 Mm above the bottom boundary of the model and are placed coincident with the location of the temperature minimum. A combination of the VALIIIC and McWhirter solar atmospheres are used as the background equilibrium model. We report how synthetic photospheric oscillations may manifest in a magnetic field free model of the quiet Sun. To carry out the simulations, we employed the magnetohydrodynamics code, SMAUG (Sheffield MHD Accelerated Using GPUs). Our results show that the amount of energy propagating into the solar atmosphere is consistent with a model of solar global oscillations described by Taroyan and Erdélyi (2008) using the Klein-Gordon equation. The computed results indicate a power law which is compared to observations reported by Ireland et al. (2015) using data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly.

  20. Coldspots and hotspots - Global tectonics and mantle dynamics of Venus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bindschadler, Duane L.; Schubert, Gerald; Kaula, William M.

    1992-01-01

    Based on geologic observations provided by Magellan's first cycle of data collection and recent models of mantle convection in spherical shells and crustal deformation, the major topographic and geologic features of Venus are incorporated into a model of global mantle dynamics. Consideration is given to volcanic rises, such as Beta Regio and Atla Regio, plateau-shaped highlands dominated by complex ridged terrain (e.g., Ovda Regio and Alpha Regio), and circular lowland regions, such as Atalanta Planitia. Each of these features is related to either mantle plumes (hotspots) or mantle downwellings (coldspots).

  1. A high resolution global scale groundwater model

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Graaf, Inge; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

    2014-05-01

    As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays a vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater storage provides a large natural buffer against water shortage and sustains flows to rivers and wetlands, supporting ecosystem habitats and biodiversity. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, although it is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle. Thus, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system that allows for the simulation of groundwater head dynamics and lateral flows is essential for GHMs that increasingly run at finer resolution. In this study we present a global groundwater model with a resolution of 5 arc-minutes (approximately 10 km at the equator) using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988). With this global groundwater model we eventually intend to simulate the changes in the groundwater system over time that result from variations in recharge and abstraction. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological maps and datasets (Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2013), combined with our estimate of aquifer thickness for sedimentary basins. We forced the groundwater model with the output from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. For the parameterization, we relied entirely on available global datasets and did not calibrate the model so that it can equally be expanded to data poor environments. Based on our sensitivity analysis, in which we run the model with various hydrogeological parameter settings, we observed that most variance in groundwater

  2. Dynamic accelerator modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishimura, Hiroshi.

    1993-05-01

    Object-Oriented Programming has been used extensively to model the LBL Advanced Light Source 1.5 GeV electron storage ring. This paper is on the present status of the class library construction with emphasis on a dynamic modeling

  3. Dynamic panel data models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bun, M.J.G.; Sarafidis, V.

    2013-01-01

    This Chapter reviews the recent literature on dynamic panel data models with a short time span and a large cross-section. Throughout the discussion we considerlinear models with additional endogenous covariates. First we give a broad overview of available inference methods placing emphasis on GMM.

  4. Modeling dynamic swarms

    KAUST Repository

    Ghanem, Bernard

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes the problem of modeling video sequences of dynamic swarms (DSs). We define a DS as a large layout of stochastically repetitive spatial configurations of dynamic objects (swarm elements) whose motions exhibit local spatiotemporal interdependency and stationarity, i.e., the motions are similar in any small spatiotemporal neighborhood. Examples of DS abound in nature, e.g., herds of animals and flocks of birds. To capture the local spatiotemporal properties of the DS, we present a probabilistic model that learns both the spatial layout of swarm elements (based on low-level image segmentation) and their joint dynamics that are modeled as linear transformations. To this end, a spatiotemporal neighborhood is associated with each swarm element, in which local stationarity is enforced both spatially and temporally. We assume that the prior on the swarm dynamics is distributed according to an MRF in both space and time. Embedding this model in a MAP framework, we iterate between learning the spatial layout of the swarm and its dynamics. We learn the swarm transformations using ICM, which iterates between estimating these transformations and updating their distribution in the spatiotemporal neighborhoods. We demonstrate the validity of our method by conducting experiments on real and synthetic video sequences. Real sequences of birds, geese, robot swarms, and pedestrians evaluate the applicability of our model to real world data. © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. A model for global cycling of tritium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Killough, G.G.; Kocher, D.C.

    1988-01-01

    Dynamic compartment models are widely used to describe global cycling of radionuclides for purposes of dose estimation. In this paper the authors present a new global tritium model that reproduces environmental time-series data on concentrations in precipitation, ocean surface waters, and surface fresh waters in the northern hemisphere, concentrations of atmospheric tritium in the southern hemisphere, and the latitude dependence of tritium in both hemispheres. Names TRICYCLE (for TRItium CYCLE) the model is based on the global hydrologic cycle and includes hemispheric stratospheric compartments, disaggregation of the troposphere and ocean surface waters into eight latitude zones, consideration of the different concentrations of atmospheric tritium over land and over the ocean, and a diffusive model for transport in the ocean. TRICYCLE reproduces the environmental data if it is assumed that about 50% of the tritium from atmospheric weapons testing was injected directly into the northern stratosphere as HTO. The model's latitudinal disaggregation permits taking into account the distribution of population. For a uniformly distributed release of HTO into the worldwide troposphere, TRICYCLE predicts a collective dose commitment to the world population that exceeds the NCRP model's corresponding prediction by a factor of three

  6. A model for global cycling of tritium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Killough, G.G.; Kocher, D.C.

    1988-01-01

    Dynamic compartment models are widely used to describe global cycling of radionuclides for purposes of dose estimation. In this paper, we present a new global tritium model that reproduces environmental time-series data on concentrations in precipitation, ocean surface waters, and surface fresh waters in the northern hemisphere, concentrations of atmospheric tritium in the soutehrn hemisphere, and the latitude dependence of tritium in both hemispheres. Named TRICYCLE for Tritium CYCLE, the model is based on the global hydrologic cycle and includes hemisphereic stratospheric compartments, disaggregation of the troposphere and ocean surface waters into eight latitudezones, consideration of the different concentrations of atmospheric tritium over land and over the ocean, and a diffusive model for transport in the ocean. TRICYCLE reproduces the environmental data if we assume that about 50% of the tritium from atmospheric weapons testing was injected directly into the northern stratosphere as HTO. The models latitudinal disaggregation permits taking into account the distribution of population. For a unfiormaly distributed release of HTO into the worldwide troposphere, TRICYCLE predicts a collective dose commitment to the world population that exceeds the corresponding prediction by the NCRP model by about a factor of 3. 11 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  7. Global investigation of the nonlinear dynamics of carbon nanotubes

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Tiantian

    2016-11-17

    Understanding the complex nonlinear dynamics of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) is essential to enable utilization of these structures in devices and practical applications. We present in this work an investigation of the global nonlinear dynamics of a slacked CNT when actuated by large electrostatic and electrodynamic excitations. The coexistence of several attractors is observed. The CNT is modeled as an Euler–Bernoulli beam. A reduced-order model based on the Galerkin method is developed and utilized to simulate the static and dynamic responses. Critical computational challenges are posed due to the complicated form of the electrostatic force, which describes the interaction between the upper electrode, consisting of the cylindrically shaped CNT, and the lower electrode. Toward this, we approximate the electrostatic force using the Padé expansion. We explore the dynamics near the primary and superharmonic resonances. The nanostructure exhibits several attractors with different characteristics. To achieve deep insight and describe the complexity and richness of the behavior, we analyze the nonlinear response from an attractor-basins point of view. The competition of attractors is highlighted. Compactness and/or fractality of their basins are discussed. Both the effects of varying the excitation frequency and amplitude are examined up to the dynamic pull-in instability.

  8. Global qualitative analysis of a quartic ecological model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broer, Hendrik; Gaiko, Valery A.

    2010-01-01

    in this paper we complete the global qualitative analysis of a quartic ecological model. In particular, studying global bifurcations of singular points and limit cycles, we prove that the corresponding dynamical system has at most two limit cycles. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Global Dynamic Numerical Simulations of Plate Tectonic Reorganizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morra, G.; Quevedo, L.; Butterworth, N.; Matthews, K. J.; Müller, D.

    2010-12-01

    We use a new numerical approach for global geodynamics to investigate the origin of present global plate motion and to identify the causes of the last two global tectonic reorganizations occurred about 50 and 100 million years ago (Ma) [1]. While the 50 Ma event is the most well-known global plate-mantle event, expressed by the bend in the Hawaiian-Emperor volcanic chain, a prominent plate reorganization at about 100 Ma, although presently little studied, is clearly indicated by a major bend in the fracture zones in the Indian Ocean and by a change in Pacific plate motion [2]. Our workflow involves turning plate reconstructions into surface meshes that are subsequently employed as initial conditions for global Boundary Element numerical models. The tectonic setting that anticipates the reorganizations is processed with the software GPlates, combining the 3D mesh of the paleo-plate morphology and the reconstruction of paleo-subducted slabs, elaborated from tectonic history [3]. All our models involve the entire planetary system, are fully dynamic, have free surface, are characterized by a spectacular computational speed due to the simultaneous use of the multi-pole algorithm and the Boundary Element formulation and are limited only by the use of sharp material property variations [4]. We employ this new tool to unravel the causes of plate tectonic reorganizations, producing and comparing global plate motion with the reconstructed ones. References: [1] Torsvik, T., Müller, R.D., Van der Voo, R., Steinberger, B., and Gaina, C., 2008, Global Plate Motion Frames: Toward a unified model: Reviews in Geophysics, VOL. 46, RG3004, 44 PP., 2008 [2] Wessel, P. and Kroenke, L.W. Pacific absolute plate motion since 145 Ma: An assessment of the fixed hot spot hypothesis. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol 113, B06101, 2008 [3] L. Quevedo, G. Morra, R. D. Mueller. Parallel Fast Multipole Boundary Element Method for Crustal Dynamics, Proceeding 9th World Congress and 4th Asian

  10. The self-consistent dynamic pole tide in global oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickman, S. R.

    1985-01-01

    The dynamic pole tide is characterized in a self-consistent manner by means of introducing a single nondifferential matrix equation compatible with the Liouville equation, modelling the ocean as global and of uniform depth. The deviations of the theory from the realistic ocean, associated with the nonglobality of the latter, are also given consideration, with an inference that in realistic oceans long-period modes of resonances would be increasingly likely to exist. The analysis of the nature of the pole tide and its effects on the Chandler wobble indicate that departures of the pole tide from the equilibrium may indeed be minimal.

  11. Using dynamical downscaling to close the gap between global change scenarios and local permafrost dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stendel, Martin; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Christensen, Jens H.

    2007-01-01

    Even though we can estimate the zonation of present-day permafrost from deep-soil temperatures obtained from global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) by accounting for heat conduction in the frozen soil, it is impossible to explicitly resolve soil properties, vegetation......, in particular in mountainous regions. By using global climate change scenarios as driving fields, one can obtain permafrost dynamics in high temporal resolution on the order of years. For the 21st century under the IPCC SRES scenarios A2 and B2, we find an increase of mean annual ground temperature by up to 6 K...

  12. Corruption dynamics model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malafeyev, O. A.; Nemnyugin, S. A.; Rylow, D.; Kolpak, E. P.; Awasthi, Achal

    2017-07-01

    The corruption dynamics is analyzed by means of the lattice model which is similar to the three-dimensional Ising model. Agents placed at nodes of the corrupt network periodically choose to perfom or not to perform the act of corruption at gain or loss while making decisions based on the process history. The gain value and its dynamics are defined by means of the Markov stochastic process modelling with parameters established in accordance with the influence of external and individual factors on the agent's gain. The model is formulated algorithmically and is studied by means of the computer simulation. Numerical results are obtained which demonstrate asymptotic behaviour of the corruption network under various conditions.

  13. GEM - The Global Earthquake Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, A.

    2009-04-01

    Over 500,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. In many seismic regions, no hazard and risk models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts, or available only for commercial purposes. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers the need for an openly accessible risk management tool. GEM is an internationally sanctioned public private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake hazard and risk, and will be designed to serve as the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, at global, regional and local scale. The work is organized in three modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic impact. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, building vulnerability, and the distribution of population and of exposed values and facilities. The socio-economic impact module delivers tools for making educated decisions to mitigate and manage risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool, with open source code and a map-based graphical interface. The underlying data will be open wherever possible, and its modular input and output will be adapted to multiple user groups: scientists and engineers, risk managers and decision makers in the public and private sectors, and the public-at- large. GEM will be the first global model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence. Its development will occur in a

  14. Global scale analysis and evaluation of an improved mechanistic representation of plant nitrogen and carbon dynamics in the Community Land Model (CLM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghimire, B.; Riley, W. J.; Koven, C. D.; Randerson, J. T.; Mu, M.; Kattge, J.; Rogers, A.; Reich, P. B.

    2014-12-01

    In many ecosystems, nitrogen is the most limiting nutrient for plant growth and productivity. However mechanistic representation of nitrogen uptake linked to root traits, and functional nitrogen allocation among different leaf enzymes involved in respiration and photosynthesis is currently lacking in Earth System models. The linkage between nitrogen availability and plant productivity is simplistically represented by potential photosynthesis rates, and is subsequently downregulated depending on nitrogen supply and other nitrogen consumers in the model (e.g., nitrification). This type of potential photosynthesis rate calculation is problematic for several reasons. Firstly, plants do not photosynthesize at potential rates and then downregulate. Secondly, there is considerable subjectivity on the meaning of potential photosynthesis rates. Thirdly, there exists lack of understanding on modeling these potential photosynthesis rates in a changing climate. In addition to model structural issues in representing photosynthesis rates, the role of plant roots in nutrient acquisition have been largely ignored in Earth System models. For example, in CLM4.5, nitrogen uptake is linked to leaf level processes (e.g., primarily productivity) rather than root scale process involved in nitrogen uptake. We present a new plant model for CLM with an improved mechanistic presentation of plant nitrogen uptake based on root scale Michaelis Menten kinetics, and stronger linkages between leaf nitrogen and plant productivity by inferring relationships observed in global databases of plant traits (including the TRY database and several individual studies). We also incorporate improved representation of plant nitrogen leaf allocation, especially in tropical regions where significant over-prediction of plant growth and productivity in CLM4.5 simulations exist. We evaluate our improved global model simulations using the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) framework. We conclude that

  15. Characterization of the Dynamics of Climate Systems and Identification of Missing Mechanisms Impacting the Long Term Predictive Capabilities of Global Climate Models Utilizing Dynamical Systems Approaches to the Analysis of Observed and Modeled Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhatt, Uma S. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Wackerbauer, Renate [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Physics; Polyakov, Igor V. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Newman, David E. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Physics; Sanchez, Raul E. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Fusion Energy Division; Univ. Carlos III de Madrid (Spain)

    2015-11-13

    The goal of this research was to apply fractional and non-linear analysis techniques in order to develop a more complete characterization of climate change and variability for the oceanic, sea ice and atmospheric components of the Earth System. This research applied two measures of dynamical characteristics of time series, the R/S method of calculating the Hurst exponent and Renyi entropy, to observational and modeled climate data in order to evaluate how well climate models capture the long-term dynamics evident in observations. Fractional diffusion analysis was applied to ARGO ocean buoy data to quantify ocean transport. Self organized maps were applied to North Pacific sea level pressure and analyzed in ways to improve seasonal predictability for Alaska fire weather. This body of research shows that these methods can be used to evaluate climate models and shed light on climate mechanisms (i.e., understanding why something happens). With further research, these methods show promise for improving seasonal to longer time scale forecasts of climate.

  16. DYNAMIC LOAD DAMPER MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loktev Aleksey Alekseevich

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The authors present their findings associated with their modeling of a dynamic load damper. According to the authors, the damper is to be installed onto a structure or its element that may be exposed to impact, vibration or any other dynamic loading. The damper is composed of paralleled or consecutively connected viscous and elastic elements. The authors study the influence of viscosity and elasticity parameters of the damper produced onto the regular displacement of points of the structure to be protected and onto the regular acceleration transmitted immediately from the damper to the elements positioned below it.

  17. Takaful Models and Global Practices

    OpenAIRE

    Akhter, Waheed

    2010-01-01

    There is a global interest in Islamic finance in general and Takāful in particular. The main feature that differentiates Takāful services from conventional ones is Sharī‟ah compliance nature of these services. Investors are taking keen interest in this potential market as Muslims constitute about one fourth of the world population (Muslim population, 2006). To streamline operations of a Takāful company, management and Sharī‟ah experts have developed different operational models for Takāful bu...

  18. Dynamic wake meandering modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, Gunner C.; Aagaard Madsen, H.; Bingoel, F. (and others)

    2007-06-15

    We present a consistent, physically based theory for the wake meandering phenomenon, which we consider of crucial importance for the overall description of wind turbine loadings in wind farms. In its present version the model is confined to single wake situations. The model philosophy does, however, have the potential to include also mutual wake interaction phenomenons. The basic conjecture behind the dynamic wake meandering model is that wake transportation in the atmospheric boundary layer is driven by the large scale lateral- and vertical turbulence components. Based on this conjecture a stochastic model of the downstream wake meandering is formulated. In addition to the kinematic formulation of the dynamics of the 'meandering frame of reference', models characterizing the mean wake deficit as well as the added wake turbulence, described in the meandering frame of reference, are an integrated part the model complex. For design applications, the computational efficiency of wake deficit prediction is a key issue. Two computationally low cost models are developed for this purpose. The character of the added wake turbulence, generated by the up-stream turbine in the form of shed and trailed vorticity, has been approached by analytical as well as by numerical studies. The dynamic wake meandering philosophy has been verified by comparing model predictions with extensive full-scale measurements. These comparisons have demonstrated good agreement, both qualitatively and quantitatively, concerning both flow characteristics and turbine load characteristics. Contrary to previous attempts to model wake loading, the dynamic wake meandering approach opens for a unifying description in the sense that turbine power and load aspects can be treated simultaneously. This capability is a direct and attractive consequence of the model being based on the underlying physical process, and it potentially opens for optimization of wind farm topology, of wind farm operation as

  19. Dynamical chiral bag model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colanero, K.; Chu, M.-C.

    2002-01-01

    We study a dynamical chiral bag model, in which massless fermions are confined within an impenetrable but movable bag coupled to meson fields. The self-consistent motion of the bag is obtained by solving the equations of motion exactly assuming spherical symmetry. When the bag interacts with an external meson wave we find three different kinds of resonances: fermionic, geometric, and σ resonances. We discuss the phenomenological implications of our results

  20. Model for macroevolutionary dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maruvka, Yosef E; Shnerb, Nadav M; Kessler, David A; Ricklefs, Robert E

    2013-07-02

    The highly skewed distribution of species among genera, although challenging to macroevolutionists, provides an opportunity to understand the dynamics of diversification, including species formation, extinction, and morphological evolution. Early models were based on either the work by Yule [Yule GU (1925) Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 213:21-87], which neglects extinction, or a simple birth-death (speciation-extinction) process. Here, we extend the more recent development of a generic, neutral speciation-extinction (of species)-origination (of genera; SEO) model for macroevolutionary dynamics of taxon diversification. Simulations show that deviations from the homogeneity assumptions in the model can be detected in species-per-genus distributions. The SEO model fits observed species-per-genus distributions well for class-to-kingdom-sized taxonomic groups. The model's predictions for the appearance times (the time of the first existing species) of the taxonomic groups also approximately match estimates based on molecular inference and fossil records. Unlike estimates based on analyses of phylogenetic reconstruction, fitted extinction rates for large clades are close to speciation rates, consistent with high rates of species turnover and the relatively slow change in diversity observed in the fossil record. Finally, the SEO model generally supports the consistency of generic boundaries based on morphological differences between species and provides a comparator for rates of lineage splitting and morphological evolution.

  1. Modelling forest dynamics along climate gradients in Bolivia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seiler, C.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Kruijt, B.; Quispe, J.; Añez, S.; Arora, V.K.; Melton, J.R.; Hickler, T.; Kabat, P.

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic vegetation models have been used to assess the resilience of tropical forests to climate change, but the global application of these modeling experiments often misrepresents carbon dynamics at a regional level, limiting the validity of future projections. Here a dynamic vegetation model

  2. RETRAN dynamic slip model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McFadden, J.H.; Paulsen, M.P.; Gose, G.C.

    1981-01-01

    Thermal-hydraulic codes in general use for system calculations are based on extensive analyses of loss-of-coolant accidents following the postulated rupture of a large coolant pipe. In this study, time-dependent equation for the slip velocity in a two-phase flow condition has been incorporated into the RETRAN-02 computer code. This model addition was undertaken to remove a limitation in RETRAN-01 associated with the homogeneous equilibrium mixture model. The dynamic slip equation was derived from a set of two-fluid conservation equations. 18 refs

  3. Global intensity correction in dynamic scenes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Withagen, P.J.; Schutte, K.; Groen, F.C.A.

    2007-01-01

    Changing image intensities causes problems for many computer vision applications operating in unconstrained environments. We propose generally applicable algorithms to correct for global differences in intensity between images recorded with a static or slowly moving camera, regardless of the cause

  4. The dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component AM3 of the GFDL global coupled model CM3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, L.J.; Wyman, B.L.; Hemler, R.S.; Horowitz, L.W.; Ming, Y.; Zhao, M.; Golaz, J.-C.; Ginoux, P.; Lin, S.-J.; Schwarzkopf, M.D.; Austin, J.; Alaka, G.; Cooke, W.F.; Delworth, T.L.; Freidenreich, S.M.; Gordon, C.T.; Griffies, S.M.; Held, I.M.; Hurlin, W.J.; Klein, S.A.; Knutson, T.R.; Langenhorst, A.R.; Lee, H.-C.; Lin, Y.; Magi, B.I.; Malyshev, S.L.; Milly, P.C.D.; Naik, V.; Nath, M.J.; Pincus, R.; Ploshay, J.J.; Ramaswamy, V.; Seman, C.J.; Shevliakova, E.; Sirutis, J.J.; Stern, W.F.; Stouffer, R.J.; Wilson, R.J.; Winton, M.; Wittenberg, A.T.; Zeng, F.

    2011-01-01

    The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has developed a coupled general circulation model (CM3) for the atmosphere, oceans, land, and sea ice. The goal of CM3 is to address emerging issues in climate change, including aerosol-cloud interactions, chemistry-climate interactions, and coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere. The model is also designed to serve as the physical system component of earth system models and models for decadal prediction in the near-term future-for example, through improved simulations in tropical land precipitation relative to earlier-generation GFDL models. This paper describes the dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component (AM3) of this model. Relative to GFDL AM2, AM3 includes new treatments of deep and shallow cumulus convection, cloud droplet activation by aerosols, subgrid variability of stratiform vertical velocities for droplet activation, and atmospheric chemistry driven by emissions with advective, convective, and turbulent transport. AM3 employs a cubed-sphere implementation of a finite-volume dynamical core and is coupled to LM3, a new land model with ecosystem dynamics and hydrology. Its horizontal resolution is approximately 200 km, and its vertical resolution ranges approximately from 70 m near the earth's surface to 1 to 1.5 km near the tropopause and 3 to 4 km in much of the stratosphere. Most basic circulation features in AM3 are simulated as realistically, or more so, as in AM2. In particular, dry biases have been reduced over South America. In coupled mode, the simulation of Arctic sea ice concentration has improved. AM3 aerosol optical depths, scattering properties, and surface clear-sky downward shortwave radiation are more realistic than in AM2. The simulation of marine stratocumulus decks remains problematic, as in AM2. The most intense 0.2% of precipitation rates occur less frequently in AM3 than observed. The last two decades of

  5. Modeling of global biomass policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gielen, Dolf; Fujino, Junichi; Hashimoto, Seiji; Moriguchi, Yuichi

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the BEAP model and its use for the analysis of biomass policies for CO 2 emission reduction. The model considers competing land use, trade and leakage effects, and competing emission reduction strategies. Two policy scenarios are presented. In case of a 2040 time horizon the results suggest that a combination of afforestation and limited use of biomass for energy and materials constitutes the most attractive set of strategies. In case of a 'continued Kyoto' scenario including afforestation permit trade, the results suggest 5.1 Gt emission reduction based on land use change in 2020, two thirds of the total emission reduction by then. In case of global emission reduction, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounts for one quarter of the emission reduction. However these results depend on the modeling time horizon. In case of a broader time horizon, maximized biomass production is more attractive than LULUCF. This result can be interpreted as a warning against a market based trading scheme for LULUCF credits. The model results suggest that the bioenergy market is dominated by transportation fuels and heating, and to a lesser extent feedstocks. Bioelectricity does not gain a significant market share in case competing CO 2 -free electricity options such as CO 2 capture and sequestration and nuclear are considered. To some extent trade in agricultural food products such as beef and cereals will be affected by CO 2 policies

  6. Modeling of global biomass policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gielen, D.; Fujino, Junichi; Hashimoto, Seiji; Moriguchi, Yuichi

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the BEAP model and its use for the analysis of biomass policies for CO 2 emission reduction. The model considers competing land use, trade and leakage effects, and competing emission reduction strategies. Two policy scenarios are presented. In case of a 2040 time horizon the results suggest that a combination of afforestation and limited use of biomass for energy and materials constitutes the most attractive set of strategies. In case of a 'continued Kyoto' scenario including afforestation permit trade, the results suggest 5.1 Gt emission reduction based on land use change in 2020, two thirds of the total emission reduction by then. In case of global emission reduction, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounts for one quarter of the emission reduction. However these results depend on the modeling time horizon. In case of a broader time horizon, maximized biomass production is more attractive than LULUCF. This result can be interpreted as a warning against a market based trading scheme for LULUCF credits. The model results suggest that the bioenergy market is dominated by transportation fuels and heating, and to a lesser extent feedstocks. Bioelectricity does not gain a significant market share in case competing CO 2 -free electricity options such as CO 2 capture and sequestration and nuclear are considered. To some extent trade in agricultural food products such as beef and cereals will be affected by CO 2 policies. (Author)

  7. Contact dynamics math model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaese, John R.; Tobbe, Patrick A.

    1986-01-01

    The Space Station Mechanism Test Bed consists of a hydraulically driven, computer controlled six degree of freedom (DOF) motion system with which docking, berthing, and other mechanisms can be evaluated. Measured contact forces and moments are provided to the simulation host computer to enable representation of orbital contact dynamics. This report describes the development of a generalized math model which represents the relative motion between two rigid orbiting vehicles. The model allows motion in six DOF for each body, with no vehicle size limitation. The rotational and translational equations of motion are derived. The method used to transform the forces and moments from the sensor location to the vehicles' centers of mass is also explained. Two math models of docking mechanisms, a simple translational spring and the Remote Manipulator System end effector, are presented along with simulation results. The translational spring model is used in an attempt to verify the simulation with compensated hardware in the loop results.

  8. Global modelling of Cryptosporidium in surface water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeulen, Lucie; Hofstra, Nynke

    2016-04-01

    Conclusions GloWPa-Crypto is the first global model that can be used to analyse dynamics in surface water pathogen concentrations worldwide. Global human Cryptosporidium emissions are estimated at 1 x 10^17 oocysts/ year for the year 2010.We estimated future emissions for SSP1 and SSP3. Preliminary results show that for SSP1human emissions are approximately halved by 2050. The SSP3 human emissions are 1.5 times higher than the 2010 emissions due to increased population growth and urbanisation. Livestock Cryptosporidium emissions are expected to increase under both SSP1 and SSP3, as meat consumption continues to rise. We conclude that population growth, urbanization, changes in sanitation systems and treatment, and changes in livestock consumption and production systems are important processes that determine future Cryptosporidium emissions to surface water. References Hofstra N, Bouwman A F, Beusen A H W and Medema G J 2013 Exploring global Cryptosporidium emissions to surface water Sci. Total Environ. 442 10-9 Kiulia N M, Hofstra N, Vermeulen L C, Obara M A, Medema G J and Rose J B 2015 Global occurrence and emission of rotaviruses to surface waters Pathogens 4 229-55 Vermeulen L C, De Kraker J, Hofstra N, Kroeze C and Medema G J 2015 Modelling the impact of sanitation, population and urbanization estimates on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters - a case study for Bangladesh and India Environ. Res. Lett. 10

  9. Potential vorticity dynamics for global scale circulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, C.; Schubert, W.

    1994-01-01

    One of the most notable advances in extratropical dynamics this decade has been the understanding of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic processes by using potential vorticity dynamics, the so called open-quotes IPV thinking.close quotes This analysis method has also been successfully extended to some tropical atmospheric circulation systems such as hurricanes and the Hadley circulation. The fundamental idea behind such a dynamic system rests with the fact that PV is a tracer-like quantity since it is conserved (in the absence of friction and diabatic heating) following a fluid particle and carries both significant dynamic and thermodynamic information regarding fluid motion. Thus, the prediction and inversion of PV form the most succinct dynamic view of atmospheric and oceanic motions. Furthermore, PV dynamics provides access to many insightful dynamic analyses such as: Propagation of Rossby waves, barotropic and baroclinic instabilities for shear flows, and wave-mean flow interactions. All these features make IPV analysis a very attractive tool for studying geophysical fluid systems

  10. Global embedding of fibre inflation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cicoli, Michele [Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia, Università di Bologna,via Irnerio 46, 40126 Bologna (Italy); INFN - Sezione di Bologna,viale Berti Pichat 6/2, 40127 Bologna (Italy); Abdus Salam ICTP,Strada Costiera 11, Trieste 34151 (Italy); Muia, Francesco [Rudolf Peierls Centre for Theoretical Physics, University of Oxford,1 Keble Rd., Oxford OX1 3NP (United Kingdom); Shukla, Pramod [Abdus Salam ICTP,Strada Costiera 11, Trieste 34151 (Italy)

    2016-11-30

    We present concrete embeddings of fibre inflation models in globally consistent type IIB Calabi-Yau orientifolds with closed string moduli stabilisation. After performing a systematic search through the existing list of toric Calabi-Yau manifolds, we find several examples that reproduce the minimal setup to embed fibre inflation models. This involves Calabi-Yau manifolds with h{sup 1,1}=3 which are K3 fibrations over a ℙ{sup 1} base with an additional shrinkable rigid divisor. We then provide different consistent choices of the underlying brane set-up which generate a non-perturbative superpotential suitable for moduli stabilisation and string loop corrections with the correct form to drive inflation. For each Calabi-Yau orientifold setting, we also compute the effect of higher derivative contributions and study their influence on the inflationary dynamics.

  11. Forward and backward dynamics in implicitly defined overlapping generations models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gardini, L.; Hommes, C.; Tramontana, F.; de Vilder, R.

    2009-01-01

    In dynamic economic models derived from optimization principles, the forward equilibrium dynamics may not be uniquely defined, while the backward dynamics is well defined. We derive properties of the global forward equilibrium paths based on properties of the backward dynamics. We propose the

  12. Earth Observation of Vegetation Dynamics in Global Drylands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tian, Feng

    Land degradation in global drylands has been a concern related to both the local livelihoods and the changes in terrestrial biosphere, especially in the context of substantial global environmental changes. Earth Observation (EO) provides a unique way to assess the vegetation dynamics over the past...

  13. Modeling the land requirements and potential productivity of sugarcane and jatropha in Brazil and India using the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lapola, David M. [Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, D-34109 Kassel (Germany); International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modeling, D-20146 Hamburg (Germany); Priess, Joerg A. [Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, D-34109 Kassel (Germany); Bondeau, Alberte [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, D-14412 Potsdam (Germany)

    2009-08-15

    The governments of Brazil and India are planning a large expansion of bioethanol and biodiesel production in the next decade. Considering that limitation of suitable land and/or competition with other land uses might occur in both countries, assessments of potential crop productivity can contribute to an improved planning of land requirements for biofuels under high productivity or marginal conditions. In this paper we model the potential productivity of sugarcane and jatropha in both countries. Land requirements for such expansions are calculated according to policy scenarios based on government targets for biofuel production in 2015. Spatial variations in the potential productivity lead to rather different land requirements, depending on where plantations are located. If jatropha is not irrigated, land requirements to fulfill the Indian government plans in 2015 would be of 410 000 to 95 000 km{sup 2} if grown in low or high productivity areas respectively (mean of 212 000 km{sup 2}). In Brazil land requirements, are of 18 000-89 000 km{sup 2} (mean of 29 000 km{sup 2}), suggesting a promising substitute to soybean biodiesel. Although future demand for sugarcane ethanol in Brazil is approximately ten times larger than in India, land requirements are comparable in both countries due to large differences in ethanol production systems. In Brazil this requirement ranges from 25 000 to 211 000 km{sup 2} (mean of 33 000 km{sup 2}) and in India from 7000 to 161 000 km{sup 2} (mean 17 000 km{sup 2}). Irrigation could reduce the land requirements by 63% and 41% (24% and 15%) in India (Brazil) for jatropha and sugarcane respectively. (author)

  14. Differential equation models for sharp threshold dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schramm, Harrison C; Dimitrov, Nedialko B

    2014-01-01

    We develop an extension to differential equation models of dynamical systems to allow us to analyze probabilistic threshold dynamics that fundamentally and globally change system behavior. We apply our novel modeling approach to two cases of interest: a model of infectious disease modified for malware where a detection event drastically changes dynamics by introducing a new class in competition with the original infection; and the Lanchester model of armed conflict, where the loss of a key capability drastically changes the effectiveness of one of the sides. We derive and demonstrate a step-by-step, repeatable method for applying our novel modeling approach to an arbitrary system, and we compare the resulting differential equations to simulations of the system's random progression. Our work leads to a simple and easily implemented method for analyzing probabilistic threshold dynamics using differential equations. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  15. Analysing the temporal dynamics of model performance for hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reusser, D.E.; Blume, T.; Schaefli, B.; Zehe, E.

    2009-01-01

    The temporal dynamics of hydrological model performance gives insights into errors that cannot be obtained from global performance measures assigning a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. These errors can include errors in data, model parameters, or

  16. A Global Model of Meteoric Sodium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Daniel R.; Janches, Diego; Feng, Wuhu; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-01-01

    A global model of sodium in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere has been developed within the framework of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The standard fully interactive WACCM chemistry module has been augmented with a chemistry scheme that includes nine neutral and ionized sodium species. Meteoric ablation provides the source of sodium in the model and is represented as a combination of a meteoroid input function (MIF) and a parameterized ablation model. The MIF provides the seasonally and latitudinally varying meteoric flux which is modeled taking into consideration the astronomical origins of sporadic meteors and considers variations in particle entry angle, velocity, mass, and the differential ablation of the chemical constituents. WACCM simulations show large variations in the sodium constituents over time scales from days to months. Seasonality of sodium constituents is strongly affected by variations in the MIF and transport via the mean meridional wind. In particular, the summer to winter hemisphere flow leads to the highest sodium species concentrations and loss rates occurring over the winter pole. In the Northern Hemisphere, this winter maximum can be dramatically affected by stratospheric sudden warmings. Simulations of the January 2009 major warming event show that it caused a short-term decrease in the sodium column over the polar cap that was followed by a factor of 3 increase in the following weeks. Overall, the modeled distribution of atomic sodium in WACCM agrees well with both ground-based and satellite observations. Given the strong sensitivity of the sodium layer to dynamical motions, reproducing its variability provides a stringent test of global models and should help to constrain key atmospheric variables in this poorly sampled region of the atmosphere.

  17. Cross-covariance based global dynamic sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Yan; Lu, Zhenzhou; Li, Zhao; Wu, Mengmeng

    2018-02-01

    For identifying the cross-covariance source of dynamic output at each time instant for structural system involving both input random variables and stochastic processes, a global dynamic sensitivity (GDS) technique is proposed. The GDS considers the effect of time history inputs on the dynamic output. In the GDS, the cross-covariance decomposition is firstly developed to measure the contribution of the inputs to the output at different time instant, and an integration of the cross-covariance change over the specific time interval is employed to measure the whole contribution of the input to the cross-covariance of output. Then, the GDS main effect indices and the GDS total effect indices can be easily defined after the integration, and they are effective in identifying the important inputs and the non-influential inputs on the cross-covariance of output at each time instant, respectively. The established GDS analysis model has the same form with the classical ANOVA when it degenerates to the static case. After degeneration, the first order partial effect can reflect the individual effects of inputs to the output variance, and the second order partial effect can reflect the interaction effects to the output variance, which illustrates the consistency of the proposed GDS indices and the classical variance-based sensitivity indices. The MCS procedure and the Kriging surrogate method are developed to solve the proposed GDS indices. Several examples are introduced to illustrate the significance of the proposed GDS analysis technique and the effectiveness of the proposed solution.

  18. The general dynamic model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borregaard, Michael K.; Matthews, Thomas J.; Whittaker, Robert James

    2016-01-01

    Aim: Island biogeography focuses on understanding the processes that underlie a set of well-described patterns on islands, but it lacks a unified theoretical framework for integrating these processes. The recently proposed general dynamic model (GDM) of oceanic island biogeography offers a step...... towards this goal. Here, we present an analysis of causality within the GDM and investigate its potential for the further development of island biogeographical theory. Further, we extend the GDM to include subduction-based island arcs and continental fragment islands. Location: A conceptual analysis...... of evolutionary processes in simulations derived from the mechanistic assumptions of the GDM corresponded broadly to those initially suggested, with the exception of trends in extinction rates. Expanding the model to incorporate different scenarios of island ontogeny and isolation revealed a sensitivity...

  19. Global sensitivity analysis of the BSM2 dynamic influent disturbance scenario generator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Gernaey, Krist V.; Jeppsson, Ulf

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of a phenomenological model that generates dynamic wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) influent disturbance scenarios. This influent model is part of the Benchmark Simulation Model (BSM) family and creates realistic dry/wet weat...

  20. DEGAS: Dynamic Exascale Global Address Space Programming Environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Demmel, James [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2018-02-23

    The Dynamic, Exascale Global Address Space programming environment (DEGAS) project will develop the next generation of programming models and runtime systems to meet the challenges of Exascale computing. The Berkeley part of the project concentrated on communication-optimal code generation to optimize speed and energy efficiency by reducing data movement. Our work developed communication lower bounds, and/or communication avoiding algorithms (that either meet the lower bound, or do much less communication than their conventional counterparts) for a variety of algorithms, including linear algebra, machine learning and genomics. The Berkeley part of the project concentrated on communication-optimal code generation to optimize speed and energy efficiency by reducing data movement. Our work developed communication lower bounds, and/or communication avoiding algorithms (that either meet the lower bound, or do much less communication than their conventional counterparts) for a variety of algorithms, including linear algebra, machine learning and genomics.

  1. Global warming description using Daisyworld model with greenhouse gases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, Susana L D; Savi, Marcelo A; Viola, Flavio M; Leiroz, Albino J K

    2014-11-01

    Daisyworld is an archetypal model of the earth that is able to describe the global regulation that can emerge from the interaction between life and environment. This article proposes a model based on the original Daisyworld considering greenhouse gases emission and absorption, allowing the description of the global warming phenomenon. Global and local analyses are discussed evaluating the influence of greenhouse gases in the planet dynamics. Numerical simulations are carried out showing the general qualitative behavior of the Daisyworld for different scenarios that includes solar luminosity variations and greenhouse gases effect. Nonlinear dynamics perspective is of concern discussing a way that helps the comprehension of the global warming phenomenon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Dynamic Linear Models with R

    CERN Document Server

    Campagnoli, Patrizia; Petris, Giovanni

    2009-01-01

    State space models have gained tremendous popularity in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. Introducing general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. It illustrates the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R package.

  3. GIS and dynamic phenomena modeling

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Klimešová, Dana

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 4, č. 4 (2006), s. 11-15 ISSN 0139-570X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : dynamic modelling * temporal analysis * dynamics evaluation * temporal space Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory

  4. Dynamic tracking performance of indoor global positioning system: An experimental and theoretical study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gang Zhao

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The automation level has been improved rapidly with the introduction of large-scale measurement technologies, such as indoor global positioning system, into the production process among the fields of car, ship, and aerospace due to their excellent measurement characteristics. In fact, the objects are usually in motion during the real measurement process; however, the dynamic measurement characteristics of indoor global positioning system are much limited and still in exploration. In this research, we focused on the dynamic tracking performance of indoor global positioning system and then successfully built a mathematical model based on its measurement principles. We first built single and double station system models with the consideration of measurement objects’ movement. Using MATLAB simulation, we realized the dynamic measurement characteristics of indoor global positioning system. In the real measurement process, the experimental results also support the mathematical model that we built, which proves a great success in dynamic measurement characteristics. We envision that this dynamic tracking performance of indoor global positioning system would shed light on the dynamic measurement of a motion object and therefore make contribution to the automation production.

  5. The Health Valley: Global Entrepreneurial Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubuis, Benoit

    2014-12-01

    In the space of a decade, the Lake Geneva region has become the Health Valley, a world-class laboratory for discovering and developing healthcare of the future. Through visionary individuals and thanks to exceptional infrastructure this region has become one of the most dynamic in the field of innovation, including leading scientific research and exceptional actors for the commercialization of academic innovation to industrial applications that will improve the lives of patients and their families. Here follows the chronicle of a spectacular expansion into the Health Valley.

  6. On global and regional spectral evaluation of global geopotential models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ustun, A; Abbak, R A

    2010-01-01

    Spectral evaluation of global geopotential models (GGMs) is necessary to recognize the behaviour of gravity signal and its error recorded in spherical harmonic coefficients and associated standard deviations. Results put forward in this wise explain the whole contribution of gravity data in different kinds that represent various sections of the gravity spectrum. This method is more informative than accuracy assessment methods, which use external data such as GPS-levelling. Comparative spectral evaluation for more than one model can be performed both in global and local sense using many spectral tools. The number of GGMs has grown with the increasing number of data collected by the dedicated satellite gravity missions, CHAMP, GRACE and GOCE. This fact makes it necessary to measure the differences between models and to monitor the improvements in the gravity field recovery. In this paper, some of the satellite-only and combined models are examined in different scales, globally and regionally, in order to observe the advances in the modelling of GGMs and their strengths at various expansion degrees for geodetic and geophysical applications. The validation of the published errors of model coefficients is a part of this evaluation. All spectral tools explicitly reveal the superiority of the GRACE-based models when compared against the models that comprise the conventional satellite tracking data. The disagreement between models is large in local/regional areas if data sets are different, as seen from the example of the Turkish territory

  7. Urban Land Expansion and Spatial Dynamics in Globalizing Shanghai

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Li

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Urban land expansion in China has attracted considerable scholarly attention. However, more work is needed to apply spatial modeling to understanding the mechanisms of urban growth from both institutional and physical perspectives. This paper analyzes urban expansion in Shanghai and its development zones (DZs. We find that, as nodes of global-local interface, the DZs are the most significant components of urban growth in Shanghai, and major spatial patterns of urban expansion in Shanghai are infilling and edge expansion. We apply logistic regression, geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR and spatial regime regression to investigate the determinants of urban land expansion including physical conditions, state policy and land development. Regressions reveal that, though the market has been an important driving force in urban growth, the state has played a predominant role through the implementation of urban planning and the establishment of DZs to fully capitalize on globalization. We also find that differences in urban growth dynamics exist between the areas inside and outside of the DZs. Finally, this paper discusses policies to promote sustainable development in Shanghai.

  8. Global brain dynamics during social exclusion predict subsequent behavioral conformity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasylyshyn, Nick; Hemenway Falk, Brett; Garcia, Javier O; Cascio, Christopher N; O'Donnell, Matthew Brook; Bingham, C Raymond; Simons-Morton, Bruce; Vettel, Jean M; Falk, Emily B

    2018-02-01

    Individuals react differently to social experiences; for example, people who are more sensitive to negative social experiences, such as being excluded, may be more likely to adapt their behavior to fit in with others. We examined whether functional brain connectivity during social exclusion in the fMRI scanner can be used to predict subsequent conformity to peer norms. Adolescent males (n = 57) completed a two-part study on teen driving risk: a social exclusion task (Cyberball) during an fMRI session and a subsequent driving simulator session in which they drove alone and in the presence of a peer who expressed risk-averse or risk-accepting driving norms. We computed the difference in functional connectivity between social exclusion and social inclusion from each node in the brain to nodes in two brain networks, one previously associated with mentalizing (medial prefrontal cortex, temporoparietal junction, precuneus, temporal poles) and another with social pain (dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, anterior insula). Using predictive modeling, this measure of global connectivity during exclusion predicted the extent of conformity to peer pressure during driving in the subsequent experimental session. These findings extend our understanding of how global neural dynamics guide social behavior, revealing functional network activity that captures individual differences.

  9. Global patterns of phytoplankton dynamics in coastal ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paerl, H.; Yin, Kedong; Cloern, J.

    2011-01-01

    Scientific Committee on Ocean Research Working Group 137 Meeting; Hangzhou, China, 17-21 October 2010; Phytoplankton biomass and community structure have undergone dramatic changes in coastal ecosystems over the past several decades in response to climate variability and human disturbance. These changes have short- and long-term impacts on global carbon and nutrient cycling, food web structure and productivity, and coastal ecosystem services. There is a need to identify the underlying processes and measure the rates at which they alter coastal ecosystems on a global scale. Hence, the Scientific Committee on Ocean Research (SCOR) formed Working Group 137 (WG 137), "Global Patterns of Phytoplankton Dynamics in Coastal Ecosystems: A Comparative Analysis of Time Series Observations" (http://wg137.net/). This group evolved from a 2007 AGU-sponsored Chapman Conference entitled "Long Time-Series Observations in Coastal Ecosystems: Comparative Analyses of Phytoplankton Dynamics on Regional to Global Scales.".

  10. Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models; Ratios de Aprendizaje Tecnologico en Modelos Energeticos Globales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varela, M.

    2001-07-01

    The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this tend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy systems including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs.

  11. The status and challenge of global fire modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

    2016-06-01

    Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

  12. Modelling dynamic roughness during floods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paarlberg, Andries; Dohmen-Janssen, Catarine M.; Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.; Termes, A.P.P.

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, we present a dynamic roughness model to predict water levels during floods. Hysteresis effects of dune development are explicitly included. It is shown that differences between the new dynamic roughness model, and models where the roughness coefficient is calibrated, are most

  13. Challenges in Modeling of the Global Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janjic, Zavisa; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Vasic, Ratko; Black, Tom

    2015-04-01

    ") with significant amplitudes can develop. Due to their large scales, that are comparable to the scales of the dominant Rossby waves, such fictitious solutions are hard to identify and remove. Another new challenge on the global scale is that the limit of validity of the hydrostatic approximation is rapidly being approached. Having in mind the sensitivity of extended deterministic forecasts to small disturbances, we may need global non-hydrostatic models sooner than we think. The unified Non-hydrostatic Multi-scale Model (NMMB) that is being developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as a part of the new NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) will be discussed as an example. The non-hydrostatic dynamics were designed in such a way as to avoid over-specification. The global version is run on the latitude-longitude grid, and the polar filter selectively slows down the waves that would otherwise be unstable. The model formulation has been successfully tested on various scales. A global forecasting system based on the NMMB has been run in order to test and tune the model. The skill of the medium range forecasts produced by the NMMB is comparable to that of other major medium range models. The computational efficiency of the global NMMB on parallel computers is good.

  14. Climatic and socio-economic fire drivers in the Mediterranean basin at a century scale: Analysis and modelling based on historical fire statistics and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouillot, F.; Koutsias, N.; Conedera, M.; Pezzatti, B.; Madoui, A.; Belhadj Kheder, C.

    2017-12-01

    Wildfire is the main disturbance affecting Mediterranean ecosystems, with implications on biogeochemical cycles, biosphere/atmosphere interactions, air quality, biodiversity, and socio-ecosystems sustainability. The fire/climate relationship is time-scale dependent and may additionally vary according to concurrent changes climatic, environmental (e.g. land use), and fire management processes (e.g. fire prevention and control strategies). To date, however, most studies focus on a decadal scale only, being fire statistics ore remote sensing data usually available for a few decades only. Long-term fire data may allow for a better caption of the slow-varying human and climate constrains and for testing the consistency of the fire/climate relationship on the mid-time to better apprehend global change effects on fire risks. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) associated with process-based fire models have been recently developed to capture both the direct role of climate on fire hazard and the indirect role of changes in vegetation and human population, to simulate biosphere/atmosphere interactions including fire emissions. Their ability to accurately reproduce observed fire patterns is still under investigation regarding seasonality, extreme events or temporal trend to identify potential misrepresentations of processes. We used a unique long-term fire reconstruction (from 1880 to 2016) of yearly burned area along a North/South and East/West environmental gradient across the Mediterranean Basin (southern Switzerland, Greece, Algeria, Tunisia) to capture the climatic and socio economic drivers of extreme fire years by linking yearly burned area with selected climate indices derived from historical climate databases and socio-economic variables. We additionally compared the actual historical reconstructed fire history with the yearly burned area simulated by a panel of DGVMS (FIREMIP initiative) driven by daily CRU climate data at 0.5° resolution across the

  15. Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics

    KAUST Repository

    Jeong, Jaehong; Jun, Mikyoung; Genton, Marc G.

    2017-01-01

    Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture

  16. Global spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration modeled using a global database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashimoto, S.; Carvalhais, N.; Ito, A.; Migliavacca, M.; Nishina, K.; Reichstein, M.

    2015-07-01

    The flux of carbon dioxide from the soil to the atmosphere (soil respiration) is one of the major fluxes in the global carbon cycle. At present, the accumulated field observation data cover a wide range of geographical locations and climate conditions. However, there are still large uncertainties in the magnitude and spatiotemporal variation of global soil respiration. Using a global soil respiration data set, we developed a climate-driven model of soil respiration by modifying and updating Raich's model, and the global spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration was examined using this model. The model was applied at a spatial resolution of 0.5°and a monthly time step. Soil respiration was divided into the heterotrophic and autotrophic components of respiration using an empirical model. The estimated mean annual global soil respiration was 91 Pg C yr-1 (between 1965 and 2012; Monte Carlo 95 % confidence interval: 87-95 Pg C yr-1) and increased at the rate of 0.09 Pg C yr-2. The contribution of soil respiration from boreal regions to the total increase in global soil respiration was on the same order of magnitude as that of tropical and temperate regions, despite a lower absolute magnitude of soil respiration in boreal regions. The estimated annual global heterotrophic respiration and global autotrophic respiration were 51 and 40 Pg C yr-1, respectively. The global soil respiration responded to the increase in air temperature at the rate of 3.3 Pg C yr-1 °C-1, and Q10 = 1.4. Our study scaled up observed soil respiration values from field measurements to estimate global soil respiration and provide a data-oriented estimate of global soil respiration. The estimates are based on a semi-empirical model parameterized with over one thousand data points. Our analysis indicates that the climate controls on soil respiration may translate into an increasing trend in global soil respiration and our analysis emphasizes the relevance of the soil carbon flux from soil to

  17. Local and global dynamical effects of dark energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chernin, A. D.

    Local expansion flows of galaxies were discovered by Lemaitre and Hubble in 1927-29 at distances of less than 25-30 Mpc. The global expansion of the Universe as a whole was predicted theoretically by Friedmann in 1922-24 and discovered in the 1990s in observations at truly cosmological distances of more than 1 000 Mpc. On all these spatial scales, the flows follow a (nearly) linear velocity-distance relation, known now as Hubble's law. This similarity of local and global phenomena is due to the universal dark energy antigravity which dominates the cosmic dynamics on both local and global spatial scales.

  18. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-01-01

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs

  19. The topology of non-linear global carbon dynamics: from tipping points to planetary boundaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderies, J M; Carpenter, S R; Steffen, Will; Rockström, Johan

    2013-01-01

    We present a minimal model of land use and carbon cycle dynamics and use it to explore the relationship between non-linear dynamics and planetary boundaries. Only the most basic interactions between land cover and terrestrial, atmospheric, and marine carbon stocks are considered in the model. Our goal is not to predict global carbon dynamics as it occurs in the actual Earth System. Rather, we construct a conceptually reasonable heuristic model of a feedback system between different carbon stocks that captures the qualitative features of the actual Earth System and use it to explore the topology of the boundaries of what can be called a ‘safe operating space’ for humans. The model analysis illustrates the existence of dynamic, non-linear tipping points in carbon cycle dynamics and the potential complexity of planetary boundaries. Finally, we use the model to illustrate some challenges associated with navigating planetary boundaries. (letter)

  20. The topology of non-linear global carbon dynamics: from tipping points to planetary boundaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderies, J. M.; Carpenter, S. R.; Steffen, Will; Rockström, Johan

    2013-12-01

    We present a minimal model of land use and carbon cycle dynamics and use it to explore the relationship between non-linear dynamics and planetary boundaries. Only the most basic interactions between land cover and terrestrial, atmospheric, and marine carbon stocks are considered in the model. Our goal is not to predict global carbon dynamics as it occurs in the actual Earth System. Rather, we construct a conceptually reasonable heuristic model of a feedback system between different carbon stocks that captures the qualitative features of the actual Earth System and use it to explore the topology of the boundaries of what can be called a ‘safe operating space’ for humans. The model analysis illustrates the existence of dynamic, non-linear tipping points in carbon cycle dynamics and the potential complexity of planetary boundaries. Finally, we use the model to illustrate some challenges associated with navigating planetary boundaries.

  1. Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, FA

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available -mail: fengelbrecht@csir.co.za Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model FA Engelbrecht1, 2*, WA Landman1, 3, CJ Engelbrecht4, S Landman5, MM Bopape1, B Roux6, JL McGregor7 and M Thatcher7 1 CSIR Natural... improvement. Keywords: multi-scale climate modelling, variable-resolution atmospheric model Introduction Dynamic climate models have become the primary tools for the projection of future climate change, at both the global and regional scales. Dynamic...

  2. Global model structures for ∗-modules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Böhme, Benjamin

    2018-01-01

    We extend Schwede's work on the unstable global homotopy theory of orthogonal spaces and L-spaces to the category of ∗-modules (i.e., unstable S-modules). We prove a theorem which transports model structures and their properties from L-spaces to ∗-modules and show that the resulting global model...... structure for ∗-modules is monoidally Quillen equivalent to that of orthogonal spaces. As a consequence, there are induced Quillen equivalences between the associated model categories of monoids, which identify equivalent models for the global homotopy theory of A∞-spaces....

  3. Combinatorial-topological framework for the analysis of global dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, Justin; Gameiro, Marcio; Harker, Shaun; Kokubu, Hiroshi; Mischaikow, Konstantin; Obayashi, Ippei; Pilarczyk, Paweł

    2012-12-01

    We discuss an algorithmic framework based on efficient graph algorithms and algebraic-topological computational tools. The framework is aimed at automatic computation of a database of global dynamics of a given m-parameter semidynamical system with discrete time on a bounded subset of the n-dimensional phase space. We introduce the mathematical background, which is based upon Conley's topological approach to dynamics, describe the algorithms for the analysis of the dynamics using rectangular grids both in phase space and parameter space, and show two sample applications.

  4. Combinatorial-topological framework for the analysis of global dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, Justin; Gameiro, Marcio; Harker, Shaun; Kokubu, Hiroshi; Mischaikow, Konstantin; Obayashi, Ippei; Pilarczyk, Paweł

    2012-12-01

    We discuss an algorithmic framework based on efficient graph algorithms and algebraic-topological computational tools. The framework is aimed at automatic computation of a database of global dynamics of a given m-parameter semidynamical system with discrete time on a bounded subset of the n-dimensional phase space. We introduce the mathematical background, which is based upon Conley's topological approach to dynamics, describe the algorithms for the analysis of the dynamics using rectangular grids both in phase space and parameter space, and show two sample applications.

  5. The dynamics of the global competitiveness of Chinese industries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, J.; Ebbers, H.; van Witteloostuijn, A.

    2013-01-01

    Using a two-dimensional multi-variable approach, this article investigates the competitiveness and dynamics of Chinese industries from the perspective of the international marketplace. The study reveals the step-by-step transformation of the degree of global competitiveness across 97 Chinese

  6. Hybrid dynamics for currency modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Theodosopoulos, Ted; Trifunovic, Alex

    2006-01-01

    We present a simple hybrid dynamical model as a tool to investigate behavioral strategies based on trend following. The multiplicative symbolic dynamics are generated using a lognormal diffusion model for the at-the-money implied volatility term structure. Thus, are model exploits information from derivative markets to obtain qualititative properties of the return distribution for the underlier. We apply our model to the JPY-USD exchange rate and the corresponding 1mo., 3mo., 6mo. and 1yr. im...

  7. Global Health Innovation Technology Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimberly Harding

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Chronic technology and business process disparities between High Income, Low Middle Income and Low Income (HIC, LMIC, LIC research collaborators directly prevent the growth of sustainable Global Health innova‐ tion for infectious and rare diseases. There is a need for an Open Source-Open Science Architecture Framework to bridge this divide. We are proposing such a framework for consideration by the Global Health community, by utiliz‐ ing a hybrid approach of integrating agnostic Open Source technology and healthcare interoperability standards and Total Quality Management principles. We will validate this architecture framework through our programme called Project Orchid. Project Orchid is a conceptual Clinical Intelligence Exchange and Virtual Innovation platform utilizing this approach to support clinical innovation efforts for multi-national collaboration that can be locally sustainable for LIC and LMIC research cohorts. The goal is to enable LIC and LMIC research organizations to acceler‐ ate their clinical trial process maturity in the field of drug discovery, population health innovation initiatives and public domain knowledge networks. When sponsored, this concept will be tested by 12 confirmed clinical research and public health organizations in six countries. The potential impact of this platform is reduced drug discovery and public health innovation lag time and improved clinical trial interventions, due to reliable clinical intelligence and bio-surveillance across all phases of the clinical innovation process.

  8. HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM): Global

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and U.S. Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) 3-day, daily forecast at approximately 9-km (1/12-degree)...

  9. ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V002

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) was developed jointly by the U.S. National...

  10. Computer Modelling of Dynamic Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Rybakin

    2000-10-01

    Full Text Available Results of numerical modeling of dynamic problems are summed in the article up. These problems are characteristic for various areas of human activity, in particular for problem solving in ecology. The following problems are considered in the present work: computer modeling of dynamic effects on elastic-plastic bodies, calculation and determination of performances of gas streams in gas cleaning equipment, modeling of biogas formation processes.

  11. Global transcription regulation of RK2 plasmids: a case study in the combined use of dynamical mathematical models and statistical inference for integration of experimental data and hypothesis exploration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Christopher M

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background IncP-1 plasmids are broad host range plasmids that have been found in clinical and environmental bacteria. They often carry genes for antibiotic resistance or catabolic pathways. The archetypal IncP-1 plasmid RK2 is a well-characterized biological system, with a fully sequenced and annotated genome and wide range of experimental measurements. Its central control operon, encoding two global regulators KorA and KorB, is a natural example of a negatively self-regulated operon. To increase our understanding of the regulation of this operon, we have constructed a dynamical mathematical model using Ordinary Differential Equations, and employed a Bayesian inference scheme, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, as a way of integrating experimental measurements and a priori knowledge. We also compared MCMC and Metabolic Control Analysis (MCA as approaches for determining the sensitivity of model parameters. Results We identified two distinct sets of parameter values, with different biological interpretations, that fit and explain the experimental data. This allowed us to highlight the proportion of repressor protein as dimers as a key experimental measurement defining the dynamics of the system. Analysis of joint posterior distributions led to the identification of correlations between parameters for protein synthesis and partial repression by KorA or KorB dimers, indicating the necessary use of joint posteriors for correct parameter estimation. Using MCA, we demonstrated that the system is highly sensitive to the growth rate but insensitive to repressor monomerization rates in their selected value regions; the latter outcome was also confirmed by MCMC. Finally, by examining a series of different model refinements for partial repression by KorA or KorB dimers alone, we showed that a model including partial repression by KorA and KorB was most compatible with existing experimental data. Conclusions We

  12. A Global Stock and Bond Model

    OpenAIRE

    Connor, Gregory

    1996-01-01

    Factor models are now widely used to support asset selection decisions. Global asset allocation, the allocation between stocks versus bonds and among nations, usually relies instead on correlation analysis of international equity and bond indexes. It would be preferable to have a single integrated framework for both asset selection and asset allocation. This framework would require a factor model applicable at an asset or country level, as well as at a global level,...

  13. Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

    2016-04-01

    This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support

  14. Modeling Computer Virus and Its Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mei Peng

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on that the computer will be infected by infected computer and exposed computer, and some of the computers which are in suscepitible status and exposed status can get immunity by antivirus ability, a novel coumputer virus model is established. The dynamic behaviors of this model are investigated. First, the basic reproduction number R0, which is a threshold of the computer virus spreading in internet, is determined. Second, this model has a virus-free equilibrium P0, which means that the infected part of the computer disappears, and the virus dies out, and P0 is a globally asymptotically stable equilibrium if R01 then this model has only one viral equilibrium P*, which means that the computer persists at a constant endemic level, and P* is also globally asymptotically stable. Finally, some numerical examples are given to demonstrate the analytical results.

  15. A global central banker competency model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W. Brits

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: No comprehensive, integrated competency model exists for central bankers. Due to the importance of central banks in the context of the ongoing global financial crisis, it was deemed necessary to design and validate such a model. Research purpose: To craft and validate a comprehensive, integrated global central banker competency model (GCBCM and to assess whether central banks using the GCBCM for training have a higher global influence. Motivation for the study: Limited consensus exists globally about what constitutes a ‘competent’ central banker. A quantitatively validated GCBCM would make a significant contribution to enhancing central banker effectiveness, and also provide a solid foundation for effective people management. Research approach, design and method: A blended quantitative and qualitative research approach was taken. Two sets of hypotheses were tested regarding the relationships between the GCBCM and the training offered, using the model on the one hand, and a central bank’s global influence on the other. Main findings: The GCBCM was generally accepted across all participating central banks globally, although some differences were found between central banks with higher and lower global influence. The actual training offered by central banks in terms of the model, however, is generally limited to technical-functional skills. The GCBCM is therefore at present predominantly aspirational. Significant differences were found regarding the training offered. Practical/managerial implications: By adopting the GCBCM, central banks would be able to develop organisation-specific competency models in order to enhance their organisational capabilities and play their increasingly important global role more effectively. Contribution: A generic conceptual framework for the crafting of a competency model with evaluation criteria was developed. A GCBCM was quantitatively validated.

  16. Coordinated approaches to quantify long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Y.; Melillo, J.; Niu, S.

    2011-01-01

    a coordinated approach that combines long-term, large-scale global change experiments with process studies and modeling. Long-term global change manipulative experiments, especially in high-priority ecosystems such as tropical forests and high-latitude regions, are essential to maximize information gain......Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long-term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long-lived plants, and accumulation...... to be the most effective strategy to gain the best information on long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change....

  17. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    The scope of the report is to present the results of the fourth year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  18. A dynamic global and local combined particle swarm optimization algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiao Bin; Lian Zhigang; Chen Qunxian

    2009-01-01

    Particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm has been developing rapidly and many results have been reported. PSO algorithm has shown some important advantages by providing high speed of convergence in specific problems, but it has a tendency to get stuck in a near optimal solution and one may find it difficult to improve solution accuracy by fine tuning. This paper presents a dynamic global and local combined particle swarm optimization (DGLCPSO) algorithm to improve the performance of original PSO, in which all particles dynamically share the best information of the local particle, global particle and group particles. It is tested with a set of eight benchmark functions with different dimensions and compared with original PSO. Experimental results indicate that the DGLCPSO algorithm improves the search performance on the benchmark functions significantly, and shows the effectiveness of the algorithm to solve optimization problems.

  19. Structural dynamic modifications via models

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The study shows that as many as half of the matrix ... the dynamicist's analytical modelling skill which would appear both in the numerator as. Figure 2. ..... Brandon J A 1990 Strategies for structural dynamic modification (New York: John Wiley).

  20. Dynamic programming models and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Denardo, Eric V

    2003-01-01

    Introduction to sequential decision processes covers use of dynamic programming in studying models of resource allocation, methods for approximating solutions of control problems in continuous time, production control, more. 1982 edition.

  1. Global-warming forecasting models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, K.P.

    1992-01-01

    In spite of an annual man-made quantity of about 20 billion tons, carbon dioxide has remained a trace gas in the atmosphere (350 ppm at present). The reliability of model calculations which forecast temperatures is dicussed in view of the world-wide increase in carbon dioxides. Computer simulations reveal a general, serious threat to the future of mankind. (DG) [de

  2. Dynamical models of the Galaxy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McMillan P.J.

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available I discuss the importance of dynamical models for exploiting survey data, focusing on the advantages of “torus” models. I summarize a number of applications of these models to the study of the Milky Way, including the determination of the peculiar Solar velocity and investigation of the Hyades moving group.

  3. Theorems on Existence and Global Dynamics for the Einstein Equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rendall Alan

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is a guide to theorems on existence and global dynamics of solutions ofthe Einstein equations. It draws attention to open questions in the field. The local-in-time Cauchy problem, which is relatively well understood, is surveyed. Global results for solutions with various types of symmetry are discussed. A selection of results from Newtonian theory and special relativity that offer useful comparisons is presented. Treatments of global results in the case of small data and results on constructing spacetimes with prescribed singularity structure are given. A conjectural picture of the asymptotic behaviour of general cosmological solutions of the Einstein equations is built up. Some miscellaneous topics connected with the main theme are collected in a separate section.

  4. Theorems on Existence and Global Dynamics for the Einstein Equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rendall Alan D.

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available This article is a guide to theorems on existence and global dynamics of solutions of the Einstein equations. It draws attention to open questions in the field. The local-in-time Cauchy problem, which is relatively well understood, is surveyed. Global results for solutions with various types of symmetry are discussed. A selection of results from Newtonian theory and special relativity that offer useful comparisons is presented. Treatments of global results in the case of small data and results on constructing spacetimes with prescribed singularity structure or late-time asymptotics are given. A conjectural picture of the asymptotic behaviour of general cosmological solutions of the Einstein equations is built up. Some miscellaneous topics connected with the main theme are collected in a separate section.

  5. Safety-oriented global analysis of reactor dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belhadj, M.; Aldemir, T.

    1992-01-01

    It is well known that the asymptotic solutions of the non-linear systems encountered in reactor dynamics can change from stable to periodic or from periodic to chaotic with a very small change in system parameters and/or initial conditions. In that respect, determination of the domains of attraction (DOAs) in the state-space that contains the asymptotic solutions and the identification of the basins of attraction (BOAs) and lead to these DOAs usually requires a global analysis of reactor dynamics (as opposed to a local analysis through perturbation theory). From the standpoint of safety, the DOAs indicate whether the reactor behavior remains within the imposed constraints or not, and the BOAs show which initial conditions lead to safe operation. Due to the lack of a general theory, often the only feasible method for the global analysis of nonlinear systems is the direct integration of governing equations. However, direct integration can be computationally prohibitive, particularly if there is uncertainty on the values of the system parameters to be used in the analysis, and/or asymptotic system behavior is chaotic. In a recent study, a global analysis algorithm was presented to determine the structure of DOAs (and their probability distribution when there is uncertainty on the system parameters) more quickly than by direct integration. This paper shows how the new algorithm can be expanded to determine the BOAs of reactor dynamics equations as well as their DOAs

  6. Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Brogaard, Sara; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

    2016-01-01

    We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS

  7. Global stability analysis of epidemiological models based on Volterra–Lyapunov stable matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao Shu; Wang Jin

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Global dynamics of high dimensional dynamical systems. ► A systematic approach for global stability analysis. ► Epidemiological models of environment-dependent diseases. - Abstract: In this paper, we study the global dynamics of a class of mathematical epidemiological models formulated by systems of differential equations. These models involve both human population and environmental component(s) and constitute high-dimensional nonlinear autonomous systems, for which the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibria has been a major challenge in analyzing the dynamics. By incorporating the theory of Volterra–Lyapunov stable matrices into the classical method of Lyapunov functions, we present an approach for global stability analysis and obtain new results on some three- and four-dimensional model systems. In addition, we conduct numerical simulation to verify the analytical results.

  8. Dynamics in stationary, non-globally hyperbolic spacetimes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seggev, Itai [Enrico Fermi Institute and Department of Physics, University of Chicago, 5640 S Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States)

    2004-06-07

    Classically, the dynamics of a scalar field in a non-globally hyperbolic spacetime is ill-posed. Previously, a prescription was given for defining dynamics in static spacetimes in terms of a second-order operator acting on a Hilbert space defined on static slices. The present work extends this result by giving a similar prescription for defining dynamics in stationary spacetimes obeying certain mild assumptions. The prescription is defined in terms of a first-order operator acting on a different Hilbert space from that used in the static prescription. It preserves the important properties of the earlier prescription: the formal solution agrees with the Cauchy evolution within the domain of dependence, and smooth data of compact support always give rise to smooth solutions. In the static case, the first-order formalism agrees with the second-order formalism (using specifically the Friedrichs extension). Applications to field quantization are also discussed.

  9. Qualitative models of global warming amplifiers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milošević, U.; Bredeweg, B.; de Kleer, J.; Forbus, K.D.

    2010-01-01

    There is growing interest from ecological experts to create qualitative models of phenomena for which numerical information is sparse or missing. We present a number of successful models in the field of environmental science, namely, the domain of global warming. The motivation behind the effort is

  10. Indonesia’s Electricity Demand Dynamic Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulistio, J.; Wirabhuana, A.; Wiratama, M. G.

    2017-06-01

    Electricity Systems modelling is one of the emerging area in the Global Energy policy studies recently. System Dynamics approach and Computer Simulation has become one the common methods used in energy systems planning and evaluation in many conditions. On the other hand, Indonesia experiencing several major issues in Electricity system such as fossil fuel domination, demand - supply imbalances, distribution inefficiency, and bio-devastation. This paper aims to explain the development of System Dynamics modelling approaches and computer simulation techniques in representing and predicting electricity demand in Indonesia. In addition, this paper also described the typical characteristics and relationship of commercial business sector, industrial sector, and family / domestic sector as electricity subsystems in Indonesia. Moreover, it will be also present direct structure, behavioural, and statistical test as model validation approach and ended by conclusions.

  11. Chancroid transmission dynamics: a mathematical modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhunu, C P; Mushayabasa, S

    2011-12-01

    Mathematical models have long been used to better understand disease transmission dynamics and how to effectively control them. Here, a chancroid infection model is presented and analyzed. The disease-free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable when the reproduction number is less than unity. High levels of treatment are shown to reduce the reproduction number suggesting that treatment has the potential to control chancroid infections in any given community. This result is also supported by numerical simulations which show a decline in chancroid cases whenever the reproduction number is less than unity.

  12. RETRAN dynamic slip model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McFadden, J.H.; Paulsen, M.P.; Gose, G.C.

    1981-01-01

    A time dependent equation for the slip velocity in a two-phase flow condition has been incorporated into a developmental version of the RETRAN computer code. This model addition has been undertaken to remove a limitation in RETRAN-01 associated with the homogeneous equilibrium mixture model. In this paper, the development of the slip model is summarized and the corresponding constitutive equations are discussed. Comparisons of RETRAN analyses with steady-state void fraction data and data from the Semiscale S-02-6 small break test are also presented

  13. Modeling Propellant Tank Dynamics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The main objective of my work will be to develop accurate models of self-pressurizing propellant tanks for use in designing hybrid rockets. The first key goal is to...

  14. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-01

    International Steam Coal Trade. In this paper, we analyse steam coal market equilibria in the years 2006 and 2008 by testing for two possible market structure scenarios: perfect competition and an oligopoly setup with major exporters competing in quantities. The assumed oligopoly scenario cannot explain market equilibria for any year. While we find that the competitive model simulates market equilibria well in 2006, the competitive model is not able to reproduce real market outcomes in 2008. The analysis shows that not all available supply capacity was utilised in 2008. We conclude that either unknown capacity bottlenecks or more sophisticated non-competitive strategies were the cause for the high prices in 2008. Chapter 4 builds upon the findings of the analysis in chapter 3 and adds a more detailed representation of domestic markets. The corresponding essay is titled Nations as Strategic Players in Global Commodity Markets: Evidence from World Coal Trade. In this chapter we explore the hypothesis that export policies and trade patterns of national players in the steam coal market are consistent with non-competitive market behaviour. We test this hypothesis by developing a static equilibrium model which is able to model coal producing nations as strategic players. We explicitly account for integrated seaborne trade and domestic markets. The global steam coal market is simulated under several imperfect market structure setups. We find that trade and prices of a China - Indonesia duopoly fits the real market outcome best and that real Chinese export quotas in 2008 were consistent with simulated exports under a Cournot-Nash strategy. Chapter 5 looks at the long-term effect of Chinese energy system planning decisions. The time horizon is 2006 to 2030. The analysis in this chapter combines a dynamic equilibrium model with the scenario analysis technique. The corresponding essay is titled Coal Lumps vs. Electrons: How Do Chinese Bulk Energy Transport Decisions Affect the Global

  15. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-17

    International Steam Coal Trade. In this paper, we analyse steam coal market equilibria in the years 2006 and 2008 by testing for two possible market structure scenarios: perfect competition and an oligopoly setup with major exporters competing in quantities. The assumed oligopoly scenario cannot explain market equilibria for any year. While we find that the competitive model simulates market equilibria well in 2006, the competitive model is not able to reproduce real market outcomes in 2008. The analysis shows that not all available supply capacity was utilised in 2008. We conclude that either unknown capacity bottlenecks or more sophisticated non-competitive strategies were the cause for the high prices in 2008. Chapter 4 builds upon the findings of the analysis in chapter 3 and adds a more detailed representation of domestic markets. The corresponding essay is titled Nations as Strategic Players in Global Commodity Markets: Evidence from World Coal Trade. In this chapter we explore the hypothesis that export policies and trade patterns of national players in the steam coal market are consistent with non-competitive market behaviour. We test this hypothesis by developing a static equilibrium model which is able to model coal producing nations as strategic players. We explicitly account for integrated seaborne trade and domestic markets. The global steam coal market is simulated under several imperfect market structure setups. We find that trade and prices of a China - Indonesia duopoly fits the real market outcome best and that real Chinese export quotas in 2008 were consistent with simulated exports under a Cournot-Nash strategy. Chapter 5 looks at the long-term effect of Chinese energy system planning decisions. The time horizon is 2006 to 2030. The analysis in this chapter combines a dynamic equilibrium model with the scenario analysis technique. The corresponding essay is titled Coal Lumps vs. Electrons: How Do Chinese Bulk Energy Transport Decisions Affect the Global

  16. The updated geodetic mean dynamic topography model – DTU15MDT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Per; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Maximenko, Nikolai

    An update to the global mean dynamic topography model DTU13MDT is presented. For DTU15MDT the newer gravity model EIGEN-6C4 has been combined with the DTU15MSS mean sea surface model to construct this global mean dynamic topography model. The EIGEN-6C4 is derived using the full series of GOCE data...

  17. Toward GEOS-6, A Global Cloud System Resolving Atmospheric Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putman, William M.

    2010-01-01

    NASA is committed to observing and understanding the weather and climate of our home planet through the use of multi-scale modeling systems and space-based observations. Global climate models have evolved to take advantage of the influx of multi- and many-core computing technologies and the availability of large clusters of multi-core microprocessors. GEOS-6 is a next-generation cloud system resolving atmospheric model that will place NASA at the forefront of scientific exploration of our atmosphere and climate. Model simulations with GEOS-6 will produce a realistic representation of our atmosphere on the scale of typical satellite observations, bringing a visual comprehension of model results to a new level among the climate enthusiasts. In preparation for GEOS-6, the agency's flagship Earth System Modeling Framework [JDl] has been enhanced to support cutting-edge high-resolution global climate and weather simulations. Improvements include a cubed-sphere grid that exposes parallelism; a non-hydrostatic finite volume dynamical core, and algorithm designed for co-processor technologies, among others. GEOS-6 represents a fundamental advancement in the capability of global Earth system models. The ability to directly compare global simulations at the resolution of spaceborne satellite images will lead to algorithm improvements and better utilization of space-based observations within the GOES data assimilation system

  18. Global workspace dynamics: Cortical "binding and propagation enables conscious contents.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernard J Baars

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available A global workspace is a hub of binding and propagation in a population of loosely coupled signaling elements. Global workspace (GW architectures recruit many distributed, specialized agents to help resolve focal ambiguities. In the brain, conscious experiences may reflect a global workspace function. For animals the natural world is full of fitness-related ambiguities, suggesting a general adaptive pressure for brains to resolve focal ambiguities quickly and accurately. In humans and related species the cortico-thalamic (C-T core is believed to underlie conscious aspects of perception, thinking, learning, feelings of knowing, emotions, imagery, working memory and executive control. The C-T core has many anatomical hubs, but conscious percepts are unitary and internally consistent at any given moment. The repertoire of conscious contents is a large, open set. These points suggest that a brain-based GW capacity cannot be localized in a single anatomical hub. Rather, it should be sought in a dynamic capacity for adaptive binding and propagation of neural signals over multi-hub networks. We refer to this as dynamic global workspace theory (dGW. In this view, conscious contents can arise in any region of the C-T core when multiple signal streams settle on a winner-take-all equilibrium. The resulting bound gestalt may ignite an any-to-many broadcast, lasting ~100-200 ms, and trigger widespread adaptation in established networks. Binding and broadcasting may involve theta/gamma or alpha/gamma phase coupling. Conscious contents (qualia may reflect their sources in cortex. Sensory percepts may bind and broadcast from posterior regions, while non-sensory feelings of knowing (FOKs may be frontotemporal. The small focal capacity of conscious contents may be the biological price to pay for global access. We propose that in the intact brain the hippocampal/rhinal complex may support conscious event organization as well as episodic memory coding.

  19. New global ICT-based business models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    The New Global Business model (NEWGIBM) book describes the background, theory references, case studies, results and learning imparted by the NEWGIBM project, which is supported by ICT, to a research group during the period from 2005-2011. The book is a result of the efforts and the collaborative ...... The NEWGIBM Cases Show? The Strategy Concept in Light of the Increased Importance of Innovative Business Models Successful Implementation of Global BM Innovation Globalisation Of ICT Based Business Models: Today And In 2020......The New Global Business model (NEWGIBM) book describes the background, theory references, case studies, results and learning imparted by the NEWGIBM project, which is supported by ICT, to a research group during the period from 2005-2011. The book is a result of the efforts and the collaborative....... The NEWGIBM book serves as a part of the final evaluation and documentation of the NEWGIBM project and is supported by results from the following projects: M-commerce, Global Innovation, Global Ebusiness & M-commerce, The Blue Ocean project, International Center for Innovation and Women in Business, NEFFICS...

  20. Modeling Global Biogenic Emission of Isoprene: Exploration of Model Drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Susan E.; Potter, Christopher S.; Coughlan, Joseph C.; Klooster, Steven A.; Lerdau, Manuel T.; Chatfield, Robert B.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    Vegetation provides the major source of isoprene emission to the atmosphere. We present a modeling approach to estimate global biogenic isoprene emission. The isoprene flux model is linked to a process-based computer simulation model of biogenic trace-gas fluxes that operates on scales that link regional and global data sets and ecosystem nutrient transformations Isoprene emission estimates are determined from estimates of ecosystem specific biomass, emission factors, and algorithms based on light and temperature. Our approach differs from an existing modeling framework by including the process-based global model for terrestrial ecosystem production, satellite derived ecosystem classification, and isoprene emission measurements from a tropical deciduous forest. We explore the sensitivity of model estimates to input parameters. The resulting emission products from the global 1 degree x 1 degree coverage provided by the satellite datasets and the process model allow flux estimations across large spatial scales and enable direct linkage to atmospheric models of trace-gas transport and transformation.

  1. Modelling group dynamic animal movement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langrock, Roland; Hopcraft, J. Grant C.; Blackwell, Paul G.

    2014-01-01

    makes its movement decisions relative to the group centroid. The basic idea is framed within the flexible class of hidden Markov models, extending previous work on modelling animal movement by means of multi-state random walks. While in simulation experiments parameter estimators exhibit some bias......, to date, practical statistical methods which can include group dynamics in animal movement models have been lacking. We consider a flexible modelling framework that distinguishes a group-level model, describing the movement of the group's centre, and an individual-level model, such that each individual......Group dynamic movement is a fundamental aspect of many species' movements. The need to adequately model individuals' interactions with other group members has been recognised, particularly in order to differentiate the role of social forces in individual movement from environmental factors. However...

  2. GLOBEC: Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics: A component of the US Global Change Research Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    GLOBEC (GLOBal ocean ECosystems dynamics) is a research initiative proposed by the oceanographic and fisheries communities to address the question of how changes in global environment are expected to affect the abundance and production of animals in the sea. The approach to this problem is to develop a fundamental understanding of the mechanisms that determine both the abundance of key marine animal populations and their variances in space and time. The assumption is that the physical environment is a major contributor to patterns of abundance and production of marine animals, in large part because the planktonic life stages typical of most marine animals are intrinsically at the mercy of the fluid motions of the medium in which they live. Consequently, the authors reason that a logical approach to predicting the potential impact of a globally changing environment is to understand how the physical environment, both directly and indirectly, contributes to animal abundance and its variability in marine ecosystems. The plans for this coordinated study of of the potential impact of global change on ocean ecosystems dynamics are discussed.

  3. Modeling Internet Topology Dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haddadi, H.; Uhlig, S.; Moore, A.; Mortier, R.; Rio, M.

    Despite the large number of papers on network topology modeling and inference, there still exists ambiguity about the real nature of the Internet AS and router level topology. While recent findings have illustrated the inaccuracies in maps inferred from BGP peering and traceroute measurements,

  4. Generative Models of Conformational Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Langmead, Christopher James

    2014-01-01

    Atomistic simulations of the conformational dynamics of proteins can be performed using either Molecular Dynamics or Monte Carlo procedures. The ensembles of three-dimensional structures produced during simulation can be analyzed in a number of ways to elucidate the thermodynamic and kinetic properties of the system. The goal of this chapter is to review both traditional and emerging methods for learning generative models from atomistic simulation data. Here, the term ‘generative’ refers to a...

  5. Using Models to Inform Policy: Insights from Modeling the Complexities of Global Polio Eradication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Kimberly M.

    Drawing on over 20 years of experience modeling risks in complex systems, this talk will challenge SBP participants to develop models that provide timely and useful answers to critical policy questions when decision makers need them. The talk will include reflections on the opportunities and challenges associated with developing integrated models for complex problems and communicating their results effectively. Dr. Thompson will focus the talk largely on collaborative modeling related to global polio eradication and the application of system dynamics tools. After successful global eradication of wild polioviruses, live polioviruses will still present risks that could potentially lead to paralytic polio cases. This talk will present the insights of efforts to use integrated dynamic, probabilistic risk, decision, and economic models to address critical policy questions related to managing global polio risks. Using a dynamic disease transmission model combined with probabilistic model inputs that characterize uncertainty for a stratified world to account for variability, we find that global health leaders will face some difficult choices, but that they can take actions that will manage the risks effectively. The talk will emphasize the need for true collaboration between modelers and subject matter experts, and the importance of working with decision makers as partners to ensure the development of useful models that actually get used.

  6. Understanding system dynamics of an adaptive enzyme network from globally profiled kinetic parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Austin W T; Liu, Wei-Chung; Charusanti, Pep; Hwang, Ming-Jing

    2014-01-15

    A major challenge in mathematical modeling of biological systems is to determine how model parameters contribute to systems dynamics. As biological processes are often complex in nature, it is desirable to address this issue using a systematic approach. Here, we propose a simple methodology that first performs an enrichment test to find patterns in the values of globally profiled kinetic parameters with which a model can produce the required system dynamics; this is then followed by a statistical test to elucidate the association between individual parameters and different parts of the system's dynamics. We demonstrate our methodology on a prototype biological system of perfect adaptation dynamics, namely the chemotaxis model for Escherichia coli. Our results agreed well with those derived from experimental data and theoretical studies in the literature. Using this model system, we showed that there are motifs in kinetic parameters and that these motifs are governed by constraints of the specified system dynamics. A systematic approach based on enrichment statistical tests has been developed to elucidate the relationships between model parameters and the roles they play in affecting system dynamics of a prototype biological network. The proposed approach is generally applicable and therefore can find wide use in systems biology modeling research.

  7. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  8. Modelling the dynamics of total precipitation and aboveground net primary production of fescue-feather grass steppe at Askania Nova according to global climate change scenariosModelling the dynamics of total precipitation and aboveground net primary production of fescue-feather grass steppe at Askania Nova according to global climate change scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. O. Belyakov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses modelling of Aboveground Net Primary Production (ANPP of steppe (arid grassland ecosystems plant species in relation to changes in total precipitation over the previous year at the “Stara” study site, Biosphere Reserve “Askania-Nova”, Khersonregion (Ukraine. To investigate linkages between precipitation and Aboveground Net Primary Production, correlation analysis was chosen and a time series regression analysis was based on the data set for the period 1988–2012. The NPP dependence on quantity of precipitation was found to be more significant for the previous autumn-winter-spring period (AWSP than for the previous 12 month period. A regression model of ANPP’s dependence on AWSP is proposed. This model was further validated by the authors’ samples of ANPP, collected at the “Stara” study site in 2013–2016. The regression model showed a non-linear (quadratic dependence of net primary production of zonal and intrazonal plant coenoses and total precipitation for the autumn-winter-spring period for arid grasslands with a coefficient of determination equal to 0.54 and significance level less than 0.05. The non-linear equation for these relations, visualized by a parabola curve, was calculated using the Nonlinear Least-Squares Regression Method. The data set, based on calculated predicted values, using the calculated equation, had a similar dynamic to the historical data on ANPP, but the model could not predict critical values. For this reason, additional studies are required for critical precipitation events. Non-linear response, investigated according to regression analysis, reveals optimal zones of plant growth, depending on the total precipitation level before the vegetation peak. For research areas where the dominant species are the turf grasses Stipa ucrainica P. Smirn., S. capillata L., S. lessingiana Trin. & Rupr., Festuca valesiaca Gaudin, Koeleria cristata (L. Pers. the optimal precipitation rates

  9. Vehicle dynamics modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Schramm, Dieter; Bardini, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    The authors examine in detail the fundamentals and mathematical descriptions of the dynamics of automobiles. In this context different levels of complexity will be presented, starting with basic single-track models up to complex three-dimensional multi-body models. A particular focus is on the process of establishing mathematical models on the basis of real cars and the validation of simulation results. The methods presented are explained in detail by means of selected application scenarios.

  10. Observation of Wetland Dynamics with Global Navigation Satellite Signals Reflectometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuffada, C.; Shah, R.; Nghiem, S. V.; Cardellach, E.; Chew, C. C.

    2015-12-01

    Wetland dynamics is crucial to changes in both atmospheric methane and terrestrial water storage. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) highlights the role of wetlands as a key driver of methane (CH4) emission, which is more than one order of magnitude stronger than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas in the centennial time scale. Among the multitude of methane emission sources (hydrates, livestock, rice cultivation, freshwaters, landfills and waste, fossil fuels, biomass burning, termites, geological sources, and soil oxidation), wetlands constitute the largest contributor with the widest uncertainty range of 177-284 Tg(CH4) yr-1 according to the IPCC estimate. Wetlands are highly susceptible to climate change that might lead to wetland collapse. Such wetland destruction would decrease the terrestrial water storage capacity and thus contribute to sea level rise, consequently exacerbating coastal flooding problems. For both methane change and water storage change, wetland dynamics is a crucial factor with the largest uncertainty. Nevertheless, a complete and consistent map of global wetlands still needs to be obtained as the Ramsar Convention calls for a wetlands inventory and impact assessment. We develop a new method for observations of wetland change using Global Navigation Satellite Signals Reflectometry (GNSS-R) signatures for global wetland mapping in synergy with the existing capability, not only as a static inventory but also as a temporal dataset, to advance the capability for monitoring the dynamics of wetland extent relevant to addressing the science issues of CH4 emission change and terrestrial water storage change. We will demonstrate the capability of the new GNSS-R method over a rice field in the Ebro Delta wetland in Spain.

  11. The dynamic radiation environment assimilation model (DREAM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reeves, Geoffrey D.; Koller, Josef; Tokar, Robert L.; Chen, Yue; Henderson, Michael G.; Friedel, Reiner H.

    2010-01-01

    The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) is a 3-year effort sponsored by the US Department of Energy to provide global, retrospective, or real-time specification of the natural and potential nuclear radiation environments. The DREAM model uses Kalman filtering techniques that combine the strengths of new physical models of the radiation belts with electron observations from long-term satellite systems such as GPS and geosynchronous systems. DREAM includes a physics model for the production and long-term evolution of artificial radiation belts from high altitude nuclear explosions. DREAM has been validated against satellites in arbitrary orbits and consistently produces more accurate results than existing models. Tools for user-specific applications and graphical displays are in beta testing and a real-time version of DREAM has been in continuous operation since November 2009.

  12. Global stability of two models with incomplete treatment for tuberculosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Yali; Li Jianquan; Ma Zhien; Liu Luju

    2010-01-01

    Research highlights: → Two tuberculosis models with incomplete treatment. → Intuitive epidemiological interpretations for the basic reproduction numbers. → Global dynamics of the two models. → Strategies to control the spread of tuberculosis. - Abstract: Two tuberculosis (TB) models with incomplete treatment are investigated. It is assumed that the treated individuals may enter either the latent compartment due to the remainder of Mycobacterium tuberculosis or the infectious compartment due to the treatment failure. The first model is a simple one with treatment failure reflecting the current TB treatment fact in most countries with high tuberculosis incidence. The second model refines the simple one by dividing the latent compartment into slow and fast two kinds of progresses. This improvement can be used to describe the case that the latent TB individuals have been infected with some other chronic diseases (such as HIV and diabetes) which may weaken the immunity of infected individuals and shorten the latent period of TB. Both of the two models assume mass action incidence and exponential distributions of transfers between different compartments. The basic reproduction numbers of the two models are derived and their intuitive epidemiological interpretations are given. The global dynamics of two models are all proved by using Liapunov functions. At last, some strategies to control the spread of tuberculosis are discussed.

  13. Dynamics of the youth travel market on a global level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timea DEMETER

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The segment of young tourists has been considered a niche market and was treated as a branch of the tourism industry. In the past 10 years, however, its market value has began to increase significantly bringing real benefits to the companies adapting to this segment by developing appropriate strategies and policies. Therefore, the aim of this project is to analyse the dynamics of the youth travel market, on a global level, taking into consideration the international youth arrivals, youth accommodation units and the behavioural habits of young tourists, serving as a starting point in the strategy development process.

  14. Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and earth system processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Taiping; Verbitsky, Mikhail; Saltzman, Barry; Mann, Michael E.; Park, Jeffrey; Lall, Upmanu

    1995-01-01

    During the grant period, the authors continued ongoing studies aimed at enhancing their understanding of the operation of the atmosphere as a complex nonlinear system interacting with the hydrosphere, biosphere, and cryosphere in response to external radiative forcing. Five papers were completed with support from the grant, representing contributions in three main areas of study: (1) theoretical studies of the interactive atmospheric response to changed biospheric boundary conditions measurable from satellites; (2) statistical-observational studies of global-scale temperature variability on interannual to century time scales; and (3) dynamics of long-term earth system changes associated with ice sheet surges.

  15. Global thermal models of the lithosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cammarano, F.; Guerri, M.

    2017-12-01

    Unraveling the thermal structure of the outermost shell of our planet is key for understanding its evolution. We obtain temperatures from interpretation of global shear-velocity (VS) models. Long-wavelength thermal structure is well determined by seismic models and only slightly affected by compositional effects and uncertainties in mineral-physics properties. Absolute temperatures and gradients with depth, however, are not well constrained. Adding constraints from petrology, heat-flow observations and thermal evolution of oceanic lithosphere help to better estimate absolute temperatures in the top part of the lithosphere. We produce global thermal models of the lithosphere at different spatial resolution, up to spherical-harmonics degree 24, and provide estimated standard deviations. We provide purely seismic thermal (TS) model and hybrid models where temperatures are corrected with steady-state conductive geotherms on continents and cooling model temperatures on oceanic regions. All relevant physical properties, with the exception of thermal conductivity, are based on a self-consistent thermodynamical modelling approach. Our global thermal models also include density and compressional-wave velocities (VP) as obtained either assuming no lateral variations in composition or a simple reference 3-D compositional structure, which takes into account a chemically depleted continental lithosphere. We found that seismically-derived temperatures in continental lithosphere fit well, overall, with continental geotherms, but a large variation in radiogenic heat is required to reconcile them with heat flow (long wavelength) observations. Oceanic shallow lithosphere below mid-oceanic ridges and young oceans is colder than expected, confirming the possible presence of a dehydration boundary around 80 km depth already suggested in previous studies. The global thermal models should serve as the basis to move at a smaller spatial scale, where additional thermo-chemical variations

  16. Containing Terrorism: A Dynamic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giti Zahedzadeh

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The strategic interplay between counterterror measures and terror activity is complex. Herein, we propose a dynamic model to depict this interaction. The model generates stylized prognoses: (i under conditions of inefficient counterterror measures, terror groups enjoy longer period of activity but only if recruitment into terror groups remains low; high recruitment shortens the period of terror activity (ii highly efficient counterterror measures effectively contain terror activity, but only if recruitment remains low. Thus, highly efficient counterterror measures can effectively contain terrorism if recruitment remains restrained. We conclude that the trajectory of the dynamics between counterterror measures and terror activity is heavily altered by recruitment.

  17. Dynamics beyond uniform hyperbolicity a global geometric and probabilistic perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Bonatti, Christian; Viana, Marcelo

    2005-01-01

    The notion of uniform hyperbolicity, introduced by Steve Smale in the early sixties, unified important developments and led to a remarkably successful theory for a large class of systems: uniformly hyperbolic systems often exhibit complicated evolution which, nevertheless, is now rather well understood, both geometrically and statistically.Another revolution has been taking place in the last couple of decades, as one tries to build a global theory for "most" dynamical systems, recovering as much as possible of the conclusions of the uniformly hyperbolic case, in great generality. This book aims to put such recent developments in a unified perspective, and to point out open problems and likely directions for further progress. It is aimed at researchers, both young and senior, willing to get a quick, yet broad, view of this part of dynamics. Main ideas, methods, and results are discussed, at variable degrees of depth, with references to the original works for details and complementary information.

  18. Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics

    KAUST Repository

    Jeong, Jaehong

    2017-11-28

    Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture the spatial and temporal behavior of these global data sets. Though the geodesic distance is the most natural metric for measuring distance on the surface of a sphere, mathematical limitations have compelled statisticians to use the chordal distance to compute the covariance matrix in many applications instead, which may cause physically unrealistic distortions. Therefore, covariance functions directly defined on a sphere using the geodesic distance are needed. We discuss the issues that arise when dealing with spherical data sets on a global scale and provide references to recent literature. We review the current approaches to building process models on spheres, including the differential operator, the stochastic partial differential equation, the kernel convolution, and the deformation approaches. We illustrate realizations obtained from Gaussian processes with different covariance structures and the use of isotropic and nonstationary covariance models through deformations and geographical indicators for global surface temperature data. To assess the suitability of each method, we compare their log-likelihood values and prediction scores, and we end with a discussion of related research problems.

  19. On coupling global biome models with climate models

    OpenAIRE

    Claussen, M.

    1994-01-01

    The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992; J. Biogeogr. 19: 117-134), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, was coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fiir Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany. It was found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only betw...

  20. COLUMBUS. A global gas market model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hecking, Harald; Panke, Timo

    2012-03-15

    A model of the global gas market is presented which in its basic version optimises the future development of production, transport and storage capacities as well as the actual gas flows around the world assuming perfect competition. Besides the transport of natural gas via pipelines also the global market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is modelled using a hub-and-spoke approach. While in the basic version of the model an inelastic demand and a piecewise-linear supply function are used, both can be changed easily, e.g. to a Golombek style production function or a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) demand function. Due to the usage of mixed complementary programming (MCP) the model additionally allows for the simulation of strategic behaviour of different players in the gas market, e.g. the gas producers.

  1. Global Dynamics of HIV Infection of CD4+ T Cells and Macrophages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Elaiw

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the global dynamics of an HIV infection model describing the interaction of the HIV with CD4+ T cells and macrophages. The incidence rate of virus infection and the growth rate of the uninfected CD4+ T cells and macrophages are given by general functions. We have incorporated two types of distributed delays into the model to account for the time delay between the time the uninfected cells are contacted by the virus particle and the time for the emission of infectious (matures virus particles. We have established a set of conditions which are sufficient for the global stability of the steady states of the model. Using Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle's invariant principle, we have proven that if the basic reproduction number R0 is less than or equal to unity, then the uninfected steady state is globally asymptotically stable (GAS, and if the infected steady state exists, then it is GAS.

  2. A dynamical model of terrorism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Firdaus Udwadia

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a dynamical model of terrorism. We consider the population in a given region as being made up of three primary components: terrorists, those susceptible to both terrorist and pacifist propaganda, and nonsusceptibles, or pacifists. The dynamical behavior of these three populations is studied using a model that incorporates the effects of both direct military/police intervention to reduce the terrorist population, and nonviolent, persuasive intervention to influence the susceptibles to become pacifists. The paper proposes a new paradigm for studying terrorism, and looks at the long-term dynamical evolution in time of these three population components when such interventions are carried out. Many important features—some intuitive, others not nearly so—of the nature of terrorism emerge from the dynamical model proposed, and they lead to several important policy implications for the management of terrorism. The different circumstances in which nonviolent intervention and/or military/police intervention may be beneficial, and the specific conditions under which each mode of intervention, or a combination of both, may be useful, are obtained. The novelty of the model presented herein is that it deals with the time evolution of terrorist activity. It appears to be one of the few models that can be tested, evaluated, and improved upon, through the use of actual field data.

  3. Validation of A Global Hydrological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doell, P.; Lehner, B.; Kaspar, F.; Vassolo, S.

    Freshwater availability has been recognized as a global issue, and its consistent quan- tification not only in individual river basins but also at the global scale is required to support the sustainable use of water. The Global Hydrology Model WGHM, which is a submodel of the global water use and availability model WaterGAP 2, computes sur- face runoff, groundwater recharge and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.5. WGHM is based on the best global data sets currently available, including a newly developed drainage direction map and a data set of wetlands, lakes and reservoirs. It calculates both natural and actual discharge by simulating the reduction of river discharge by human water consumption (as computed by the water use submodel of WaterGAP 2). WGHM is calibrated against observed discharge at 724 gauging sta- tions (representing about 50% of the global land area) by adjusting a parameter of the soil water balance. It not only computes the long-term average water resources but also water availability indicators that take into account the interannual and seasonal variability of runoff and discharge. The reliability of the model results is assessed by comparing observed and simulated discharges at the calibration stations and at se- lected other stations. We conclude that reliable results can be obtained for basins of more than 20,000 km2. In particular, the 90% reliable monthly discharge is simu- lated well. However, there is the tendency that semi-arid and arid basins are modeled less satisfactorily than humid ones, which is partially due to neglecting river channel losses and evaporation of runoff from small ephemeral ponds in the model. Also, the hydrology of highly developed basins with large artificial storages, basin transfers and irrigation schemes cannot be simulated well. The seasonality of discharge in snow- dominated basins is overestimated by WGHM, and if the snow-dominated basin is uncalibrated, discharge is likely to be underestimated

  4. Generative Models of Conformational Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langmead, Christopher James

    2014-01-01

    Atomistic simulations of the conformational dynamics of proteins can be performed using either Molecular Dynamics or Monte Carlo procedures. The ensembles of three-dimensional structures produced during simulation can be analyzed in a number of ways to elucidate the thermodynamic and kinetic properties of the system. The goal of this chapter is to review both traditional and emerging methods for learning generative models from atomistic simulation data. Here, the term ‘generative’ refers to a model of the joint probability distribution over the behaviors of the constituent atoms. In the context of molecular modeling, generative models reveal the correlation structure between the atoms, and may be used to predict how the system will respond to structural perturbations. We begin by discussing traditional methods, which produce multivariate Gaussian models. We then discuss GAMELAN (GrAphical Models of Energy LANdscapes), which produces generative models of complex, non-Gaussian conformational dynamics (e.g., allostery, binding, folding, etc) from long timescale simulation data. PMID:24446358

  5. Global nuclear material flow/control model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dreicer, J.S.; Rutherford, D.S.; Fasel, P.K.; Riese, J.M.

    1997-01-01

    This is the final report of a two-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The nuclear danger can be reduced by a system for global management, protection, control, and accounting as part of an international regime for nuclear materials. The development of an international fissile material management and control regime requires conceptual research supported by an analytical and modeling tool which treats the nuclear fuel cycle as a complete system. The prototype model developed visually represents the fundamental data, information, and capabilities related to the nuclear fuel cycle in a framework supportive of national or an international perspective. This includes an assessment of the global distribution of military and civilian fissile material inventories, a representation of the proliferation pertinent physical processes, facility specific geographic identification, and the capability to estimate resource requirements for the management and control of nuclear material. The model establishes the foundation for evaluating the global production, disposition, and safeguards and security requirements for fissile nuclear material and supports the development of other pertinent algorithmic capabilities necessary to undertake further global nuclear material related studies

  6. Global fast dynamic terminal sliding mode control for a quadrotor UAV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Jing-Jing; Zhang, Guo-Bao

    2017-01-01

    A control method based on global fast dynamic terminal sliding mode control (TSMC) technique is proposed to design the flight controller for performing the finite-time position and attitude tracking control of a small quadrotor UAV. Firstly, the dynamic model of the quadrotor is divided into two subsystems, i.e., a fully actuated subsystem and an underactuated subsystem. Secondly, the dynamic flight controllers of the quadrotor are formulated based on global fast dynamic TSMC, which is able to guarantee that the position and velocity tracking errors of all system state variables converge to zero in finite-time. Moreover, the global fast dynamic TSMC is also able to eliminate the chattering phenomenon caused by the switching control action and realize the high precision performance. In addition, the stabilities of two subsystems are demonstrated by Lyapunov theory, respectively. Lastly, the simulation results are given to illustrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed control method in the presence of external disturbances. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Experimental Modeling of Dynamic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Morten Haack

    2006-01-01

    An engineering course, Simulation and Experimental Modeling, has been developed that is based on a method for direct estimation of physical parameters in dynamic systems. Compared with classical system identification, the method appears to be easier to understand, apply, and combine with physical...

  8. Global Optimization Ensemble Model for Classification Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anwar, Hina; Qamar, Usman; Muzaffar Qureshi, Abdul Wahab

    2014-01-01

    Supervised learning is the process of data mining for deducing rules from training datasets. A broad array of supervised learning algorithms exists, every one of them with its own advantages and drawbacks. There are some basic issues that affect the accuracy of classifier while solving a supervised learning problem, like bias-variance tradeoff, dimensionality of input space, and noise in the input data space. All these problems affect the accuracy of classifier and are the reason that there is no global optimal method for classification. There is not any generalized improvement method that can increase the accuracy of any classifier while addressing all the problems stated above. This paper proposes a global optimization ensemble model for classification methods (GMC) that can improve the overall accuracy for supervised learning problems. The experimental results on various public datasets showed that the proposed model improved the accuracy of the classification models from 1% to 30% depending upon the algorithm complexity. PMID:24883382

  9. Global Optimization Ensemble Model for Classification Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hina Anwar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Supervised learning is the process of data mining for deducing rules from training datasets. A broad array of supervised learning algorithms exists, every one of them with its own advantages and drawbacks. There are some basic issues that affect the accuracy of classifier while solving a supervised learning problem, like bias-variance tradeoff, dimensionality of input space, and noise in the input data space. All these problems affect the accuracy of classifier and are the reason that there is no global optimal method for classification. There is not any generalized improvement method that can increase the accuracy of any classifier while addressing all the problems stated above. This paper proposes a global optimization ensemble model for classification methods (GMC that can improve the overall accuracy for supervised learning problems. The experimental results on various public datasets showed that the proposed model improved the accuracy of the classification models from 1% to 30% depending upon the algorithm complexity.

  10. Fractional dynamics of globally slow transcription and its impact on deterministic genetic oscillation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kun Wei

    Full Text Available In dynamical systems theory, a system which can be described by differential equations is called a continuous dynamical system. In studies on genetic oscillation, most deterministic models at early stage are usually built on ordinary differential equations (ODE. Therefore, gene transcription which is a vital part in genetic oscillation is presupposed to be a continuous dynamical system by default. However, recent studies argued that discontinuous transcription might be more common than continuous transcription. In this paper, by appending the inserted silent interval lying between two neighboring transcriptional events to the end of the preceding event, we established that the running time for an intact transcriptional event increases and gene transcription thus shows slow dynamics. By globally replacing the original time increment for each state increment by a larger one, we introduced fractional differential equations (FDE to describe such globally slow transcription. The impact of fractionization on genetic oscillation was then studied in two early stage models--the Goodwin oscillator and the Rössler oscillator. By constructing a "dual memory" oscillator--the fractional delay Goodwin oscillator, we suggested that four general requirements for generating genetic oscillation should be revised to be negative feedback, sufficient nonlinearity, sufficient memory and proper balancing of timescale. The numerical study of the fractional Rössler oscillator implied that the globally slow transcription tends to lower the chance of a coupled or more complex nonlinear genetic oscillatory system behaving chaotically.

  11. Fractional dynamics of globally slow transcription and its impact on deterministic genetic oscillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Kun; Gao, Shilong; Zhong, Suchuan; Ma, Hong

    2012-01-01

    In dynamical systems theory, a system which can be described by differential equations is called a continuous dynamical system. In studies on genetic oscillation, most deterministic models at early stage are usually built on ordinary differential equations (ODE). Therefore, gene transcription which is a vital part in genetic oscillation is presupposed to be a continuous dynamical system by default. However, recent studies argued that discontinuous transcription might be more common than continuous transcription. In this paper, by appending the inserted silent interval lying between two neighboring transcriptional events to the end of the preceding event, we established that the running time for an intact transcriptional event increases and gene transcription thus shows slow dynamics. By globally replacing the original time increment for each state increment by a larger one, we introduced fractional differential equations (FDE) to describe such globally slow transcription. The impact of fractionization on genetic oscillation was then studied in two early stage models--the Goodwin oscillator and the Rössler oscillator. By constructing a "dual memory" oscillator--the fractional delay Goodwin oscillator, we suggested that four general requirements for generating genetic oscillation should be revised to be negative feedback, sufficient nonlinearity, sufficient memory and proper balancing of timescale. The numerical study of the fractional Rössler oscillator implied that the globally slow transcription tends to lower the chance of a coupled or more complex nonlinear genetic oscillatory system behaving chaotically.

  12. Analysis of A Virus Dynamics Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Baolin; Li, Jianquan; Li, Jia; Zhao, Xin

    2018-03-01

    In order to more accurately characterize the virus infection in the host, a virus dynamics model with latency and virulence is established and analyzed in this paper. The positivity and boundedness of the solution are proved. After obtaining the basic reproduction number and the existence of infected equilibrium, the Lyapunov method and the LaSalle invariance principle are used to determine the stability of the uninfected equilibrium and infected equilibrium by constructing appropriate Lyapunov functions. We prove that, when the basic reproduction number does not exceed 1, the uninfected equilibrium is globally stable, the virus can be cleared eventually; when the basic reproduction number is more than 1, the infected equilibrium is globally stable, the virus will persist in the host at a certain level. The effect of virulence and latency on infection is also discussed.

  13. Empirical Modeling of the Plasmasphere Dynamics Using Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhelavskaya, I. S.; Shprits, Y.; Spasojevic, M.

    2017-12-01

    We present a new empirical model for reconstructing the global dynamics of the cold plasma density distribution based only on solar wind data and geomagnetic indices. Utilizing the density database obtained using the NURD (Neural-network-based Upper hybrid Resonance Determination) algorithm for the period of October 1, 2012 - July 1, 2016, in conjunction with solar wind data and geomagnetic indices, we develop a neural network model that is capable of globally reconstructing the dynamics of the cold plasma density distribution for 2 ≤ L ≤ 6 and all local times. We validate and test the model by measuring its performance on independent datasets withheld from the training set and by comparing the model predicted global evolution with global images of He+ distribution in the Earth's plasmasphere from the IMAGE Extreme UltraViolet (EUV) instrument. We identify the parameters that best quantify the plasmasphere dynamics by training and comparing multiple neural networks with different combinations of input parameters (geomagnetic indices, solar wind data, and different durations of their time history). We demonstrate results of both local and global plasma density reconstruction. This study illustrates how global dynamics can be reconstructed from local in-situ observations by using machine learning techniques.

  14. Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy (ADAGE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ADAGE is a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model capable of examining many types of economic, energy, environmental, climate change mitigation, and trade policies at the international, national, U.S. regional, and U.S. state levels. To investigate proposed policy eff...

  15. The global distribution and dynamics of surface soil moisture

    Science.gov (United States)

    McColl, Kaighin A.; Alemohammad, Seyed Hamed; Akbar, Ruzbeh; Konings, Alexandra G.; Yueh, Simon; Entekhabi, Dara

    2017-01-01

    Surface soil moisture has a direct impact on food security, human health and ecosystem function. It also plays a key role in the climate system, and the development and persistence of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods and heatwaves. However, sparse and uneven observations have made it difficult to quantify the global distribution and dynamics of surface soil moisture. Here we introduce a metric of soil moisture memory and use a full year of global observations from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive mission to show that surface soil moisture--a storage believed to make up less than 0.001% of the global freshwater budget by volume, and equivalent to an, on average, 8-mm thin layer of water covering all land surfaces--plays a significant role in the water cycle. Specifically, we find that surface soil moisture retains a median 14% of precipitation falling on land after three days. Furthermore, the retained fraction of the surface soil moisture storage after three days is highest over arid regions, and in regions where drainage to groundwater storage is lowest. We conclude that lower groundwater storage in these regions is due not only to lower precipitation, but also to the complex partitioning of the water cycle by the surface soil moisture storage layer at the land surface.

  16. The global distribution and dynamics of chromophoric dissolved organic matter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Norman B; Siegel, David A

    2013-01-01

    Chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is a ubiquitous component of the open ocean dissolved matter pool, and is important owing to its influence on the optical properties of the water column, its role in photochemistry and photobiology, and its utility as a tracer of deep ocean biogeochemical processes and circulation. In this review, we discuss the global distribution and dynamics of CDOM in the ocean, concentrating on developments in the past 10 years and restricting our discussion to open ocean and deep ocean (below the main thermocline) environments. CDOM has been demonstrated to exert primary control on ocean color by its absorption of light energy, which matches or exceeds that of phytoplankton pigments in most cases. This has important implications for assessing the ocean biosphere via ocean color-based remote sensing and the evaluation of ocean photochemical and photobiological processes. The general distribution of CDOM in the global ocean is controlled by a balance between production (primarily microbial remineralization of organic matter) and photolysis, with vertical ventilation circulation playing an important role in transporting CDOM to and from intermediate water masses. Significant decadal-scale fluctuations in the abundance of global surface ocean CDOM have been observed using remote sensing, indicating a potentially important role for CDOM in ocean-climate connections through its impact on photochemistry and photobiology.

  17. Modeling Cancer Metastasis using Global, Quantitative and Integrative Network Biology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schoof, Erwin; Erler, Janine

    understanding of molecular processes which are fundamental to tumorigenesis. In Article 1, we propose a novel framework for how cancer mutations can be studied by taking into account their effect at the protein network level. In Article 2, we demonstrate how global, quantitative data on phosphorylation dynamics...... can be generated using MS, and how this can be modeled using a computational framework for deciphering kinase-substrate dynamics. This framework is described in depth in Article 3, and covers the design of KinomeXplorer, which allows the prediction of kinases responsible for modulating observed...... phosphorylation dynamics in a given biological sample. In Chapter III, we move into Integrative Network Biology, where, by combining two fundamental technologies (MS & NGS), we can obtain more in-depth insights into the links between cellular phenotype and genotype. Article 4 describes the proof...

  18. Global comparison of three greenhouse climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bavel, van C.H.M.; Takakura, T.; Bot, G.P.A.

    1985-01-01

    Three dynamic simulation models for calculating the greenhouse climate and its energy requirements for both heating and cooling were compared by making detailed computations for each of seven sets of data. The data sets ranged from a cold winter day, requiring heating, to a hot summer day, requiring

  19. Statistical models of global Langmuir mixing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qing; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Breivik, Øyvind; Webb, Adrean

    2017-05-01

    The effects of Langmuir mixing on the surface ocean mixing may be parameterized by applying an enhancement factor which depends on wave, wind, and ocean state to the turbulent velocity scale in the K-Profile Parameterization. Diagnosing the appropriate enhancement factor online in global climate simulations is readily achieved by coupling with a prognostic wave model, but with significant computational and code development expenses. In this paper, two alternatives that do not require a prognostic wave model, (i) a monthly mean enhancement factor climatology, and (ii) an approximation to the enhancement factor based on the empirical wave spectra, are explored and tested in a global climate model. Both appear to reproduce the Langmuir mixing effects as estimated using a prognostic wave model, with nearly identical and substantial improvements in the simulated mixed layer depth and intermediate water ventilation over control simulations, but significantly less computational cost. Simpler approaches, such as ignoring Langmuir mixing altogether or setting a globally constant Langmuir number, are found to be deficient. Thus, the consequences of Stokes depth and misaligned wind and waves are important.

  20. Incorporating nitrogen fixing cyanobacteria in the global biogeochemical model HAMOCC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, Hanna; Ilyina, Tatiana; Six, Katharina

    2015-04-01

    Nitrogen fixation by marine diazotrophs plays a fundamental role in the oceanic nitrogen and carbon cycle as it provides a major source of 'new' nitrogen to the euphotic zone that supports biological carbon export and sequestration. Since most global biogeochemical models include nitrogen fixation only diagnostically, they are not able to capture its spatial pattern sufficiently. Here we present the incorporation of an explicit, dynamic representation of diazotrophic cyanobacteria and the corresponding nitrogen fixation in the global ocean biogeochemical model HAMOCC (Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model), which is part of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth system model (MPI-ESM). The parameterization of the diazotrophic growth is thereby based on available knowledge about the cyanobacterium Trichodesmium spp., which is considered as the most significant pelagic nitrogen fixer. Evaluation against observations shows that the model successfully reproduces the main spatial distribution of cyanobacteria and nitrogen fixation, covering large parts of the tropical and subtropical oceans. Besides the role of cyanobacteria in marine biogeochemical cycles, their capacity to form extensive surface blooms induces a number of bio-physical feedback mechanisms in the Earth system. The processes driving these interactions, which are related to the alteration of heat absorption, surface albedo and momentum input by wind, are incorporated in the biogeochemical and physical model of the MPI-ESM in order to investigate their impacts on a global scale. First preliminary results will be shown.

  1. Global structure of exact scalar hairy dynamical black holes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fan, Zhong-Ying [Center for High Energy Physics, Peking University,No. 5 Yiheyuan Rd, Beijing, 100871 P.R. (China); Chen, Bin [Center for High Energy Physics, Peking University,No. 5 Yiheyuan Rd, Beijing, 100871 P.R. (China); Department of Physics and State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Physics and Technology,Peking University, No. 5 Yiheyuan Rd, Beijing, 100871 P.R. (China); Collaborative Innovation Center of Quantum Matter,No. 5 Yiheyuan Rd, Beijing, 100871 P.R. (China); Lü, H. [Center for Advanced Quantum Studies, Department of Physics, Beijing Normal University,Beijing, 100875 P.R. (China)

    2016-05-30

    We study the global structure of some exact scalar hairy dynamical black holes which were constructed in Einstein gravity either minimally or non-minimally coupled to a scalar field. We find that both the apparent horizon and the local event horizon (measured in luminosity coordinate) monotonically increase with the advanced time as well as the Vaidya mass. At late advanced times, the apparent horizon approaches the event horizon and gradually becomes future outer. Correspondingly, the space-time arrives at stationary black hole states with the relaxation time inversely proportional to the 1/(n−1) power of the final black hole mass, where n is the space-time dimension. These results strongly support the solutions describing the formation of black holes with scalar hair. We also obtain new charged dynamical solutions in the non-minimal theory by introducing an Maxwell field which is non-minimally coupled to the scalar. The presence of the electric charge strongly modifies the dynamical evolution of the space-time.

  2. Global dynamics of dust grains in magnetic planets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inarrea, Manuel; Lanchares, Victor; Palacian, Jesus F.; Pascual, Ana I.; Salas, J. Pablo; Yanguas, Patricia

    2005-01-01

    We study the dynamics of a charged particle orbiting a rotating magnetic planet. The system is modelled by the Hamiltonian of the two-body problem perturbed by an axially-symmetric potential. The perturbation consists in a magnetic dipole field and a corotational electric field. After an averaging process we arrive at a one degree of freedom Hamiltonian system for which we obtain its relative equilibria and bifurcations. It is shown that the system exhibits a complex and rich dynamics. In particular, dramatic changes in the phase flow take place in the vicinity of a circular equatorial orbit, that in the case of Saturn is located inside the E-ring

  3. Dynamical analysis of the global business-cycle synchronization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, António M; Tenreiro Machado, J A; Huffstot, John S; Mata, Maria Eugénia

    2018-01-01

    This paper reports the dynamical analysis of the business cycles of 12 (developed and developing) countries over the last 56 years by applying computational techniques used for tackling complex systems. They reveal long-term convergence and country-level interconnections because of close contagion effects caused by bilateral networking exposure. Interconnectivity determines the magnitude of cross-border impacts. Local features and shock propagation complexity also may be true engines for local configuration of cycles. The algorithmic modeling proves to represent a solid approach to study the complex dynamics involved in the world economies.

  4. Dynamical analysis of the global business-cycle synchronization

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    This paper reports the dynamical analysis of the business cycles of 12 (developed and developing) countries over the last 56 years by applying computational techniques used for tackling complex systems. They reveal long-term convergence and country-level interconnections because of close contagion effects caused by bilateral networking exposure. Interconnectivity determines the magnitude of cross-border impacts. Local features and shock propagation complexity also may be true engines for local configuration of cycles. The algorithmic modeling proves to represent a solid approach to study the complex dynamics involved in the world economies. PMID:29408909

  5. Global dynamics of dust grains in magnetic planets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inarrea, Manuel [Universidad de La Rioja, Area de Fisica Aplicada, 26006 Logrono (Spain)]. E-mail: manuel.inarrea@dq.unirioja.es; Lanchares, Victor [Universidad de La Rioja, Departamento de Matematicas y Computacion, 26004 Logrono (Spain); Palacian, Jesus F. [Universidad Publica de Navarra, Departamento de Matematica e Informatica, 31006 Pamplona (Spain); Pascual, Ana I. [Universidad de La Rioja, Departamento de Matematicas y Computacion, 26004 Logrono (Spain); Salas, J. Pablo [Universidad de La Rioja, Area de Fisica Aplicada, 26006 Logrono (Spain); Yanguas, Patricia [Universidad Publica de Navarra, Departamento de Matematica e Informatica, 31006 Pamplona (Spain)

    2005-05-02

    We study the dynamics of a charged particle orbiting a rotating magnetic planet. The system is modelled by the Hamiltonian of the two-body problem perturbed by an axially-symmetric potential. The perturbation consists in a magnetic dipole field and a corotational electric field. After an averaging process we arrive at a one degree of freedom Hamiltonian system for which we obtain its relative equilibria and bifurcations. It is shown that the system exhibits a complex and rich dynamics. In particular, dramatic changes in the phase flow take place in the vicinity of a circular equatorial orbit, that in the case of Saturn is located inside the E-ring.

  6. Modeling of the Global Water Cycle - Analytical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yongqiang Liu; Roni Avissar

    2005-01-01

    Both numerical and analytical models of coupled atmosphere and its underlying ground components (land, ocean, ice) are useful tools for modeling the global and regional water cycle. Unlike complex three-dimensional climate models, which need very large computing resources and involve a large number of complicated interactions often difficult to interpret, analytical...

  7. Global Environmental Change: An integrated modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Den Elzen, M.

    1993-01-01

    Two major global environmental problems are dealt with: climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion (and their mutual interactions), briefly surveyed in part 1. In Part 2 a brief description of the integrated modelling framework IMAGE 1.6 is given. Some specific parts of the model are described in more detail in other Chapters, e.g. the carbon cycle model, the atmospheric chemistry model, the halocarbon model, and the UV-B impact model. In Part 3 an uncertainty analysis of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion is presented (Chapter 4). Chapter 5 briefly reviews the social and economic uncertainties implied by future greenhouse gas emissions. Chapters 6 and 7 describe a model and sensitivity analysis pertaining to the scientific uncertainties and/or lacunae in the sources and sinks of methane and carbon dioxide, and their biogeochemical feedback processes. Chapter 8 presents an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the carbon cycle model, the halocarbon model, and the IMAGE model 1.6 as a whole. Part 4 presents the risk assessment methodology as applied to the problems of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion more specifically. In Chapter 10, this methodology is used as a means with which to asses current ozone policy and a wide range of halocarbon policies. Chapter 11 presents and evaluates the simulated globally-averaged temperature and sea level rise (indicators) for the IPCC-1990 and 1992 scenarios, concluding with a Low Risk scenario, which would meet the climate targets. Chapter 12 discusses the impact of sea level rise on the frequency of the Dutch coastal defence system (indicator) for the IPCC-1990 scenarios. Chapter 13 presents projections of mortality rates due to stratospheric ozone depletion based on model simulations employing the UV-B chain model for a number of halocarbon policies. Chapter 14 presents an approach for allocating future emissions of CO 2 among regions. (Abstract Truncated)

  8. Global Bifurcation of a Novel Computer Virus Propagation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianguo Ren

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In a recent paper by J. Ren et al. (2012, a novel computer virus propagation model under the effect of the antivirus ability in a real network is established. The analysis there only partially uncovers the dynamics behaviors of virus spread over the network in the case where around bifurcation is local. In the present paper, by mathematical analysis, it is further shown that, under appropriate parameter values, the model may undergo a global B-T bifurcation, and the curves of saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation, and homoclinic bifurcation are obtained to illustrate the qualitative behaviors of virus propagation. On this basis, a collection of policies is recommended to prohibit the virus prevalence. To our knowledge, this is the first time the global bifurcation has been explored for the computer virus propagation. Theoretical results and corresponding suggestions may help us suppress or eliminate virus propagation in the network.

  9. Business model dynamics and innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavalcante, Sergio Andre; Kesting, Peter; Ulhøi, John Parm

    2011-01-01

    the impact of specific changes to a firm's business model. Such a tool would be particularly useful in identifying path dependencies and resistance at the process level, and would therefore allow a firm's management to take focused action on this in advance. Originality/value – The paper makes two main...... and specifies four different types of business model change: business model creation, extension, revision, and termination. Each type of business model change is associated with specific challenges. Practical implications – The proposed typology can serve as a basis for developing a management tool to evaluate......Purpose – This paper aims to discuss the need to dynamize the existing conceptualization of business model, and proposes a new typology to distinguish different types of business model change. Design/methodology/approach – The paper integrates basic insights of innovation, business process...

  10. Dynamics of a Stochastic Intraguild Predation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zejing Xing

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Intraguild predation (IGP is a widespread ecological phenomenon which occurs when one predator species attacks another predator species with which it competes for a shared prey species. The objective of this paper is to study the dynamical properties of a stochastic intraguild predation model. We analyze stochastic persistence and extinction of the stochastic IGP model containing five cases and establish the sufficient criteria for global asymptotic stability of the positive solutions. This study shows that it is possible for the coexistence of three species under the influence of environmental noise, and that the noise may have a positive effect for IGP species. A stationary distribution of the stochastic IGP model is established and it has the ergodic property, suggesting that the time average of population size with the development of time is equal to the stationary distribution in space. Finally, we show that our results may be extended to two well-known biological systems: food chains and exploitative competition.

  11. On whole Abelian model dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chauca, J.; Doria, R. [CBPF, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Aprendanet, Petropolis, 25600 (Brazil)

    2012-09-24

    Physics challenge is to determine the objects dynamics. However, there are two ways for deciphering the part. The first one is to search for the ultimate constituents; the second one is to understand its behaviour in whole terms. Therefore, the parts can be defined either from elementary constituents or as whole functions. Historically, science has been moving through the first aspect, however, quarks confinement and complexity are interrupting this usual approach. These relevant facts are supporting for a systemic vision be introduced. Our effort here is to study on the whole meaning through gauge theory. Consider a systemic dynamics oriented through the U(1) - systemic gauge parameter which function is to collect a fields set {l_brace}A{sub {mu}I}{r_brace}. Derive the corresponding whole gauge invariant Lagrangian, equations of motion, Bianchi identities, Noether relationships, charges and Ward-Takahashi equations. Whole Lorentz force and BRST symmetry are also studied. These expressions bring new interpretations further than the usual abelian model. They are generating a systemic system governed by 2N+ 10 classical equations plus Ward-Takahashi identities. A whole dynamics based on the notions of directive and circumstance is producing a set determinism where the parts dynamics are inserted in the whole evolution. A dynamics based on state, collective and individual equations with a systemic interdependence.

  12. Relating structure and dynamics in organisation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkers, C.M.; Treur, J.

    2002-01-01

    To understand how an organisational structure relates to dynamics is an interesting fundamental challenge in the area of social modelling. Specifications of organisational structure usually have a diagrammatic form that abstracts from more detailed dynamics. Dynamic properties of agent systems,

  13. A high-resolution global-scale groundwater model

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Graaf, I. E. M.; Sutanudjaja, E. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2015-02-01

    Groundwater is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water. It plays a vital role in satisfying basic needs for drinking water, agriculture and industrial activities. During times of drought groundwater sustains baseflow to rivers and wetlands, thereby supporting ecosystems. Most global-scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, mainly due to lack of geohydrological data at the global scale. For the simulation of lateral flow and groundwater head dynamics, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system is needed, especially for GHMs that run at finer resolutions. In this study we present a global-scale groundwater model (run at 6' resolution) using MODFLOW to construct an equilibrium water table at its natural state as the result of long-term climatic forcing. The used aquifer schematization and properties are based on available global data sets of lithology and transmissivities combined with the estimated thickness of an upper, unconfined aquifer. This model is forced with outputs from the land-surface PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) model, specifically net recharge and surface water levels. A sensitivity analysis, in which the model was run with various parameter settings, showed that variation in saturated conductivity has the largest impact on the groundwater levels simulated. Validation with observed groundwater heads showed that groundwater heads are reasonably well simulated for many regions of the world, especially for sediment basins (R2 = 0.95). The simulated regional-scale groundwater patterns and flow paths demonstrate the relevance of lateral groundwater flow in GHMs. Inter-basin groundwater flows can be a significant part of a basin's water budget and help to sustain river baseflows, especially during droughts. Also, water availability of larger aquifer systems can be positively affected by additional recharge from inter-basin groundwater flows.

  14. A Process-based Model of Global Lichen Productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porada, P.; Kleidon, A.

    2012-04-01

    Lichens and biotic crusts are abundant in most ecosystems of the world. They are the main autotrophic organisms in many deserts and at high altitudes and they can also be found in large amounts as epiphytes in some forests, especially in the boreal zone. They are characterised by a great variety of physiological properties, such as growth form, productivity or color. Due to the vast land surface areas covered by lichens, they may contribute significantly to the global terrestrial net carbon uptake. Furthermore, they potentially play an important role with respect to nutrient cycles in some ecosystems and they have the ability to enhance weathering at the surface on which they grow. A possible way to quantify these processes at the global scale is presented here in form of a process-based lichen model. This approach is based on the concepts used in many dynamical vegetation models and extends these methods to account for the specific properties of lichens. Hence, processes such as photosynthesis, respiration and water exchange are implemented as well as important trade-offs like photosynthetic capacity versus respiratory load and water content versus CO2 conductivity. The great physiological variability of lichens is incorporated directly into the model through ranges of possible parameter values, which are randomly sampled. In this way, many artificial lichen "species" are created and climate then acts as a filter to determine the species which are able to survive permanently. By averaging over the surviving "species", the model predicts lichen productivity as a function of climate input data such as temperature, radiation and precipitation at the global scale. Consequently, the contribution of lichens to the global carbon balance can be quantified. Moreover, global patterns of lichen biodiversity and other properties can be illustrated. The model can be extended to account for the nutrient dynamics of lichens, such as nitrogen fixation and the acquisition and

  15. Next Generation Carbon-Nitrogen Dynamics Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Fisher, R. A.; Vrugt, J. A.; Wullschleger, S. D.; McDowell, N. G.

    2012-12-01

    Nitrogen is a key regulator of vegetation dynamics, soil carbon release, and terrestrial carbon cycles. Thus, to assess energy impacts on the global carbon cycle and future climates, it is critical that we have a mechanism-based and data-calibrated nitrogen model that simulates nitrogen limitation upon both above and belowground carbon dynamics. In this study, we developed a next generation nitrogen-carbon dynamic model within the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM). This next generation nitrogen-carbon dynamic model utilized 1) a mechanistic model of nitrogen limitation on photosynthesis with nitrogen trade-offs among light absorption, electron transport, carboxylation, respiration and storage; 2) an optimal leaf nitrogen model that links soil nitrogen availability and leaf nitrogen content; and 3) an ecosystem demography (ED) model that simulates the growth and light competition of tree cohorts and is currently coupled to CLM. Our three test cases with changes in CO2 concentration, growing temperature and radiation demonstrate the model's ability to predict the impact of altered environmental conditions on nitrogen allocations. Currently, we are testing the model against different datasets including soil fertilization and Free Air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments across different forest types. We expect that our calibrated model will considerably improve our understanding and predictability of vegetation-climate interactions.itrogen allocation model evaluations. The figure shows the scatter plots of predicted and measured Vc,max and Jmax scaled to 25 oC (i.e.,Vc,max25 and Jmax25) at elevated CO2 (570 ppm, test case one), reduced radiation in canopy (0.1-0.9 of the radiation at the top of canopy, test case two) and reduced growing temperature (15oC, test case three). The model is first calibrated using control data under ambient CO2 (370 ppm), radiation at the top of the canopy (621 μmol photon/m2/s), the normal growing temperature (30oC). The fitted model

  16. Global optimization for quantum dynamics of few-fermion systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xikun; Pecak, Daniel; Sowiński, Tomasz; Sherson, Jacob; Nielsen, Anne E. B.

    2018-03-01

    Quantum state preparation is vital to quantum computation and quantum information processing tasks. In adiabatic state preparation, the target state is theoretically obtained with nearly perfect fidelity if the control parameter is tuned slowly enough. As this, however, leads to slow dynamics, it is often desirable to be able to carry out processes more rapidly. In this work, we employ two global optimization methods to estimate the quantum speed limit for few-fermion systems confined in a one-dimensional harmonic trap. Such systems can be produced experimentally in a well-controlled manner. We determine the optimized control fields and achieve a reduction in the ramping time of more than a factor of four compared to linear ramping. We also investigate how robust the fidelity is to small variations of the control fields away from the optimized shapes.

  17. Global auroral imaging instrumentation for the dynamics explorer mission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, L.A.; Craven, J.D.; Ackerson, K.L.; English, M.R.; Eather, R.H.; Carovillano, R.L.

    1981-01-01

    The instrumentation for gaining global images of the auroral oval from the high-altitude spacecraft of the Dynamics Explorer Mission is described. Three spin-scan auroral imaging (SAI) photometers are expected to be able to effectively view the dim emissions from earth in the presence of strong stray light sources near their fields-of-view along the sunlit portion of the spacecraft orbit. A special optical design which includes an off-axis parabolic mirror as the focusing element and super-reflecting mirror surfaces is used to minimize the effects of stray light. The rotation of the spacecraft and an instrument scanning mirror provide the two-dimensional array of pixels comprising an image frame. (orig.)

  18. Social Dynamics Modeling and Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-03-29

    the experiment(s)/ theory and equipment or analyses. Development of innovative theoretical model and methodologies with experimental verifications...information. The methodology based on communication and information theory (thanks to leave at MIT supported by this research) is described in [J1], [C2...a dynamic system [C1] and as a social learning mechanism in details [J4]. Furthermore, by incentive seeding and rewiring connections, information

  19. Global identifiability of linear compartmental models--a computer algebra algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Audoly, S; D'Angiò, L; Saccomani, M P; Cobelli, C

    1998-01-01

    A priori global identifiability deals with the uniqueness of the solution for the unknown parameters of a model and is, thus, a prerequisite for parameter estimation of biological dynamic models. Global identifiability is however difficult to test, since it requires solving a system of algebraic nonlinear equations which increases both in nonlinearity degree and number of terms and unknowns with increasing model order. In this paper, a computer algebra tool, GLOBI (GLOBal Identifiability) is presented, which combines the topological transfer function method with the Buchberger algorithm, to test global identifiability of linear compartmental models. GLOBI allows for the automatic testing of a priori global identifiability of general structure compartmental models from general multi input-multi output experiments. Examples of usage of GLOBI to analyze a priori global identifiability of some complex biological compartmental models are provided.

  20. Development of an Integrated Global Energy Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1999-01-01

    The primary objective of this research was to develop a forefront analysis tool for application to enhance understanding of long-term, global, nuclear-energy and nuclear-material futures. To this end, an existing economics-energy-environmental (E 3 ) model was adopted, modified, and elaborated to examine this problem in a multi-regional (13), long-term (approximately2,100) context. The E 3 model so developed was applied to create a Los Alamos presence in this E 3 area through ''niche analyses'' that provide input to the formulation of policies dealing with and shaping of nuclear-energy and nuclear-materials futures. Results from analyses using the E 3 model have been presented at a variety of national and international conferences and workshops. Through use of the E 3 model Los Alamos was afforded the opportunity to participate in a multi-national E 3 study team that is examining a range of global, long-term nuclear issues under the auspices of the IAEA during the 1998-99 period . Finally, the E 3 model developed under this LDRD project is being used as an important component in more recent Nuclear Material Management Systems (NMMS) project

  1. Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2018-04-01

    The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

  2. Global patterns in Earth's dynamic topography since the Jurassic: the role of subducted slabs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rubey

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate the spatial and temporal evolution of Earth's long-wavelength surface dynamic topography since the Jurassic using a series of high-resolution global mantle convection models. These models are Earth-like in terms of convective vigour, thermal structure, surface heat-flux and the geographic distribution of heterogeneity. The models generate a degree-2-dominated spectrum of dynamic topography with negative amplitudes above subducted slabs (i.e. circum-Pacific regions and southern Eurasia and positive amplitudes elsewhere (i.e. Africa, north-western Eurasia and the central Pacific. Model predictions are compared with published observations and subsidence patterns from well data, both globally and for the Australian and southern African regions. We find that our models reproduce the long-wavelength component of these observations, although observed smaller-scale variations are not reproduced. We subsequently define geodynamic rules for how different surface tectonic settings are affected by mantle processes: (i locations in the vicinity of a subduction zone show large negative dynamic topography amplitudes; (ii regions far away from convergent margins feature long-term positive dynamic topography; and (iii rapid variations in dynamic support occur along the margins of overriding plates (e.g. the western US and at points located on a plate that rapidly approaches a subduction zone (e.g. India and the Arabia Peninsula. Our models provide a predictive quantitative framework linking mantle convection with plate tectonics and sedimentary basin evolution, thus improving our understanding of how subduction and mantle convection affect the spatio-temporal evolution of basin architecture.

  3. A fully traits-based approach to modeling global vegetation distribution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bodegom, van P.M.; Douma, J.C.; Verheijen, L.M.

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are indispensable for our understanding of climate change impacts. The application of traits in DGVMs is increasingly refined. However, a comprehensive analysis of the direct impacts of trait variation on global vegetation distribution does not yet exist.

  4. Global value chains: Building blocks and network dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsekeris, Theodore

    2017-12-01

    The paper employs measures and tools from complex network analysis to enhance the understanding and interpretation of structural characteristics pertaining to the Global Value Chains (GVCs) during the period 1995-2011. The analysis involves the country, sector and country-sector value chain networks to identify main drivers of structural change. The results indicate significant intertemporal changes, mirroring the increased globalization in terms of network size, strength and connectivity. They also demonstrate higher clustering and increased concentration of the most influential countries and country-sectors relative to all others in the GVC network, with the geographical dimension to prevail over the sectoral dimension in the formation of value chains. The regionalization and less hierarchical organization drive country-sector production sharing, while the sectoral value chain network has become more integrated and more competitive over time. The findings suggest that the impact of country-sector policies and/or shocks may vary with the own-group and network-wide influence of each country, take place in multiple geographical scales, as GVCs have a block structure, and involve time dynamics.

  5. On the global dynamics of the Rabinovich system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Llibre, Jaume; Messias, Marcelo; Silva, Paulo R da

    2008-01-01

    In this paper by using the Poincare compactification in R 3 we make a global analysis of the Rabinovich system x-dot=hy-v 1 x+yz, y-dot=hx-v 2 y-xz, z-dot=-v 3 z+xy, where (x,y,z) element of R 3 and (h,v 1 ,v 2 ,v 3 ) element of R 4 . We give the complete description of its dynamics on the sphere at infinity. For ten sets of the parameter values the system has either first integrals or invariants. For these ten sets we provide the global phase portrait of the Rabinovich system in the Poincare ball (i.e. in the compactification of R 3 with the sphere S 2 of the infinity). We prove that for convenient values of the parameters the system has two families of singularly degenerate heteroclinic cycles. Then changing slightly the parameters we numerically found a four wings butterfly shaped strange attractor

  6. On the global dynamics of the Rabinovich system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Llibre, Jaume [Departament de Matematiques, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Messias, Marcelo [Departamento de Matematica EstatIstica e Computacao, Faculdade de Ciencias e Tecnologia- UNESP, Rua Roberto Simonsen, 305, Cx. Postal 467, CEP 19060-900 P Prudente, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Silva, Paulo R da [Departamento de Matematica-IBILCE-UNESP, Rua C Colombo, 2265, CEP 15054-000 S J Rio Preto, Sao Paulo (Brazil)], E-mail: jllibre@mat.uab.cat, E-mail: marcelo@fct.unesp.br, E-mail: prs@ibilce.unesp.br

    2008-07-11

    In this paper by using the Poincare compactification in R{sup 3} we make a global analysis of the Rabinovich system x-dot=hy-v{sub 1}x+yz, y-dot=hx-v{sub 2}y-xz, z-dot=-v{sub 3}z+xy, where (x,y,z) element of R{sup 3} and (h,v{sub 1},v{sub 2},v{sub 3}) element of R{sup 4}. We give the complete description of its dynamics on the sphere at infinity. For ten sets of the parameter values the system has either first integrals or invariants. For these ten sets we provide the global phase portrait of the Rabinovich system in the Poincare ball (i.e. in the compactification of R{sup 3} with the sphere S{sup 2} of the infinity). We prove that for convenient values of the parameters the system has two families of singularly degenerate heteroclinic cycles. Then changing slightly the parameters we numerically found a four wings butterfly shaped strange attractor.

  7. Evaluation of atmospheric aerosol and tropospheric ozone effects on global terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Min

    The increasing human activities have produced large amounts of air pollutants ejected into the atmosphere, in which atmospheric aerosols and tropospheric ozone are considered to be especially important because of their negative impacts on human health and their impacts on global climate through either their direct radiative effect or indirect effect on land-atmosphere CO2 exchange. This dissertation dedicates to quantifying and evaluating the aerosol and tropospheric ozone effects on global terrestrial ecosystem dynamics using a modeling approach. An ecosystem model, the integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (iTem), is developed to simulate biophysical and biogeochemical processes in terrestrial ecosystems. A two-broad-band atmospheric radiative transfer model together with the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measured atmospheric parameters are used to well estimate global downward solar radiation and the direct and diffuse components in comparison with observations. The atmospheric radiative transfer modeling framework were used to quantify the aerosol direct radiative effect, showing that aerosol loadings cause 18.7 and 12.8 W m -2 decrease of direct-beam Photosynthetic Active Radiation (PAR) and Near Infrared Radiation (NIR) respectively, and 5.2 and 4.4 W m -2 increase of diffuse PAR and NIR, respectively, leading to a total 21.9 W m-2 decrease of total downward solar radiation over the global land surface during the period of 2003-2010. The results also suggested that the aerosol effect may be overwhelmed by clouds because of the stronger extinction and scattering ability of clouds. Applications of the iTem with solar radiation data and with or without considering the aerosol loadings shows that aerosol loading enhances the terrestrial productions [Gross Primary Production (GPP), Net Primary Production (NPP) and Net Ecosystem Production (NEP)] and carbon emissions through plant respiration (RA) in global terrestrial ecosystems over the

  8. Progress in Global Multicompartmental Modelling of DDT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stemmler, I.; Lammel, G.

    2009-04-01

    Dichlorophenyltrichloroethane, DDT, and its major metabolite dichlorophenyldichloroethylene, DDE, are long-lived in the environment (persistent) and circulate since the 1950s. They accumulate along food chains, cause detrimental effects in marine and terrestrial wild life, and pose a hazard for human health. DDT was widely used as an insecticide in the past and is still in use in a number of tropical countries to combat vector borne diseases like malaria and typhus. It is a multicompartmental substance with only a small mass fraction residing in air. A global multicompartment chemistry transport model (MPI-MCTM; Semeena et al., 2006) is used to study the environmental distribution and fate of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT). For the first time a horizontally and vertically resolved global model was used to perform a long-term simulation of DDT and DDE. The model is based on general circulation models for the ocean (MPIOM; Marsland et al., 2003) and atmosphere (ECHAM5). In addition, an oceanic biogeochemistry model (HAMOCC5.1; Maier-Reimer et al., 2005 ) and a microphysical aerosol model (HAM; Stier et al., 2005 ) are included. Multicompartmental substances are cycling in atmosphere (3 phases), ocean (3 phases), top soil (3 phases), and vegetation surfaces. The model was run for 40 years forced with historical agricultural application data of 1950-1990. The model results show that the global environmental contamination started to decrease in air, soil and vegetation after the applications peaked in 1965-70. In some regions, however, the DDT mass had not yet reached a maximum in 1990 and was still accumulating mass until the end of the simulation. Modelled DDT and DDE concentrations in atmosphere, ocean and soil are evaluated by comparison with observational data. The evaluation of the model results indicate that degradation of DDE in air was underestimated. Also for DDT, the discrepancies between model results and observations are related to uncertainties of

  9. A satellite-based global landslide model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Farahmand

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Landslides are devastating phenomena that cause huge damage around the world. This paper presents a quasi-global landslide model derived using satellite precipitation data, land-use land cover maps, and 250 m topography information. This suggested landslide model is based on the Support Vector Machines (SVM, a machine learning algorithm. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC landslide inventory data is used as observations and reference data. In all, 70% of the data are used for model development and training, whereas 30% are used for validation and verification. The results of 100 random subsamples of available landslide observations revealed that the suggested landslide model can predict historical landslides reliably. The average error of 100 iterations of landslide prediction is estimated to be approximately 7%, while approximately 2% false landslide events are observed.

  10. A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, Matthias

    2015-04-01

    Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F

  11. On coupling global biome models with climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Claussen, M.

    1994-01-01

    The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, is coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg. It is found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only between the initial biome distribution and the biome distribution computed after the first simulation period, provided that the climate-biome model is started from a biome distribution that resembles the present-day distribution. After the first simulation period, there is no significant shrinking, expanding, or shifting of biomes. Likewise, no trend is seen in global averages of land-surface parameters and climate variables. (orig.)

  12. Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, S. D.; Scheibling, R. E.; Rassweiler, A.; Johnson, C. R.; Shears, N.; Connell, S. D.; Salomon, A. K.; Norderhaug, K. M.; Pérez-Matus, A.; Hernández, J. C.; Clemente, S.; Blamey, L. K.; Hereu, B.; Ballesteros, E.; Sala, E.; Garrabou, J.; Cebrian, E.; Zabala, M.; Fujita, D.; Johnson, L. E.

    2015-01-01

    A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

  13. The dynamics of accounting terms in a globalized environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuertes-Olivera, Pedro A.; Nielsen, Sandro

    2014-01-01

    European accounting terminology is dynamic as term creation occurs on national, European Union and international levels. English is the lingua franca of accounting, which influences terminologies in other languages, usually through the work of translators, e.g. the translation of existing interna...... into Spanish; and the presence of novel metaphors in Spanish accounting. The data used in the discussion are taken from the accounting dictionaries, a collection of online dictionaries in three languages: Danish, English and Spanish.......European accounting terminology is dynamic as term creation occurs on national, European Union and international levels. English is the lingua franca of accounting, which influences terminologies in other languages, usually through the work of translators, e.g. the translation of existing...... international accounting standards. The combined influence of these forces is discussed in this chapter that explains the existence of a globalized trend towards a kind of cultural uniformity. This manifests itself in many ways, two of which are: the translation of English multiword accounting terms...

  14. The extrapolar SWIFT-model: Fast stratospheric ozone chemistry for global climate models

    OpenAIRE

    Kreyling, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this PhD-thesis was the development of a fast yet accurate chemistry scheme for an interactive calculation of the extrapolar stratospheric ozone layer. The SWIFT-model is mainly intended for use in Global Climate Models (GCMs). For computing-time reasons GCMs often do not employ full stratospheric chemistry modules, but use prescribed ozone instead. This method does not consider the interaction between atmospheric dynamics and the ozone layer and can neither resolve the inter-annu...

  15. A Global Change in Higher Education: Entrepreneurial University Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Süreyya SAKINÇ

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Universities are affected by the social and economic diversity stemmed from globalization and internationalization, and its functions, area of responsibility, organizational structure, funding capability respond this diversity. In today's knowledge society, different new concepts regarding the university education system such as Entrepreneur University, Corporation University, virtual university etc. have been emerged with wave of globalization effect. The rising competition in academic education and the mass demands for education prompt to universities to get seeking new funds for fixing their financial situation, and hit them transforming into entrepreneurial identity. The reflections of neoliberal approach in education have transformed the universities into the corporations which are much more focused on entrepreneurial, student-oriented and aimed to appropriate education and producing creative human resources for global development. In this study, a comprehensive evaluation will be carried on regarding the entrepreneur university model through the litterateur research to investigate its causes and factors that impact and improve it. The aim of the paper is to generate a framework that identifies dynamic processes of entrepreneur university model, dependently the litterateur syntheses. The contribution of the paper will depend on its consequent argument that entrepreneur university model is viable for Turkey. In this paper, the entrepreneur university model will be analyzed by Triple Helix phenomenon with the comparative approach.

  16. Tree-Based Global Model Tests for Polytomous Rasch Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komboz, Basil; Strobl, Carolin; Zeileis, Achim

    2018-01-01

    Psychometric measurement models are only valid if measurement invariance holds between test takers of different groups. Global model tests, such as the well-established likelihood ratio (LR) test, are sensitive to violations of measurement invariance, such as differential item functioning and differential step functioning. However, these…

  17. Global and local level density models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koning, A.J.; Hilaire, S.; Goriely, S.

    2008-01-01

    Four different level density models, three phenomenological and one microscopic, are consistently parameterized using the same set of experimental observables. For each of the phenomenological models, the Constant Temperature Model, the Back-shifted Fermi gas Model and the Generalized Superfluid Model, a version without and with explicit collective enhancement is considered. Moreover, a recently published microscopic combinatorial model is compared with the phenomenological approaches and with the same set of experimental data. For each nuclide for which sufficient experimental data exists, a local level density parameterization is constructed for each model. Next, these local models have helped to construct global level density prescriptions, to be used for cases for which no experimental data exists. Altogether, this yields a collection of level density formulae and parameters that can be used with confidence in nuclear model calculations. To demonstrate this, a large-scale validation with experimental discrete level schemes and experimental cross sections and neutron emission spectra for various different reaction channels has been performed

  18. A dynamic model of functioning of a bank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malafeyev, Oleg; Awasthi, Achal; Zaitseva, Irina; Rezenkov, Denis; Bogdanova, Svetlana

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we analyze dynamic programming as a novel approach to solve the problem of maximizing the profits of a bank. The mathematical model of the problem and the description of bank's work is described in this paper. The problem is then approached using the method of dynamic programming. Dynamic programming makes sure that the solutions obtained are globally optimal and numerically stable. The optimization process is set up as a discrete multi-stage decision process and solved with the help of dynamic programming.

  19. Mapping Global Urban Dynamics from Nighttime Lights - 1992 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yanhua

    Accurate, up-to-date, and consistent information of urban extent is indispensable for numerous applications central to urban planning, ecosystem management, and environmental assessment and monitoring. However, current large-scale urban extent products are not uniform with respect to urban definition, spatial resolution, thematic representation, and temporal frequency. To fill this gap, this study proposed a method to update and backdate global urban extent from currently available urban maps by using nighttime light (NTL) as the main indicator. The method followed three steps: (1) exploring the spatiotemporal variation of NTL thresholds for mapping urban dynamics from NTL time series and developing an object-based thresholding method (i.e., NTL-OUT method, Xie & Weng, 2016b); (2) spatiotemporally enhancing time-series Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) NTL data for detecting broad-scale urban changes (Xie & Weng, 2017); and (3) detecting global urban dynamics during the period between 1992 and 2012 (i.e., 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, and 2012) from enhanced OLS NTL time series by using the NTL-OUT method. The results show that global urban extent almost doubled during the period from 1992 to 2012, increasing from 0.52 million to 0.98 million km 2, which accounts for 0.39% and 0.72% of the total global land area, respectively. Regionally, the urbanization level varies by continent, with Europe being the most urbanized, followed by North America, Asia, South America, Africa, and Australia-Oceania. In 1992, the urban extent varied from only 0.1% of total continental land area in Australia-Oceania and Africa to 1.18% in Europe. While the proportion of urban extent in North America increased slightly from 1992 to 2002 (i.e., 0.07%), urban extent increased 0.1% for both Asia and South America. In 2012, over 0.7% of the total land was covered by the human built environment, with 0.2% in Africa and Australia-Oceania and around 0

  20. A Dynamic Multi-Level Factor Model with Long-Range Dependence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ergemen, Yunus Emre; Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir

    A dynamic multi-level factor model with stationary or nonstationary global and regional factors is proposed. In the model, persistence in global and regional common factors as well as innovations allows for the study of fractional cointegrating relationships. Estimation of global and regional...

  1. Global adjoint tomography: first-generation model

    KAUST Repository

    Bozdağ, Ebru

    2016-09-23

    We present the first-generation global tomographic model constructed based on adjoint tomography, an iterative full-waveform inversion technique. Synthetic seismograms were calculated using GPU-accelerated spectral-element simulations of global seismic wave propagation, accommodating effects due to 3-D anelastic crust & mantle structure, topography & bathymetry, the ocean load, ellipticity, rotation, and self-gravitation. Fréchet derivatives were calculated in 3-D anelastic models based on an adjoint-state method. The simulations were performed on the Cray XK7 named \\'Titan\\', a computer with 18 688 GPU accelerators housed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The transversely isotropic global model is the result of 15 tomographic iterations, which systematically reduced differences between observed and simulated three-component seismograms. Our starting model combined 3-D mantle model S362ANI with 3-D crustal model Crust2.0. We simultaneously inverted for structure in the crust and mantle, thereby eliminating the need for widely used \\'crustal corrections\\'. We used data from 253 earthquakes in the magnitude range 5.8 ≤ M ≤ 7.0. We started inversions by combining ~30 s body-wave data with ~60 s surface-wave data. The shortest period of the surface waves was gradually decreased, and in the last three iterations we combined ~17 s body waves with ~45 s surface waves. We started using 180 min long seismograms after the 12th iteration and assimilated minor- and major-arc body and surface waves. The 15th iteration model features enhancements of well-known slabs, an enhanced image of the Samoa/Tahiti plume, as well as various other plumes and hotspots, such as Caroline, Galapagos, Yellowstone and Erebus. Furthermore, we see clear improvements in slab resolution along the Hellenic and Japan Arcs, as well as subduction along the East of Scotia Plate, which does not exist in the starting model. Point-spread function tests demonstrate that we are approaching the

  2. GLOBEC (Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics: Northwest Atlantic program

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    The specific objective of the meeting was to plan an experiment in the Northwestern Atlantic to study the marine ecosystem and its role, together with that of climate and physical dynamics, in determining fisheries recruitment. The underlying focus of the GLOBEC initiative is to understand the marine ecosystem as it related to marine living resources and to understand how fluctuation in these resources are driven by climate change and exploitation. In this sense the goal is a solid scientific program to provide basic information concerning major fisheries stocks and the environment that sustains them. The plan is to attempt to reach this understanding through a multidisciplinary program that brings to bear new techniques as disparate as numerical fluid dynamic models of ocean circulation, molecular biology and modern acoustic imaging. The effort will also make use of the massive historical data sets on fisheries and the state of the climate in a coordinated manner.

  3. How Does the Electron Dynamics Affect the Global Reconnection Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hesse, Michael

    2012-01-01

    The question of whether the microscale controls the macroscale or vice-versa remains one of the most challenging problems in plasmas. A particular topic of interest within this context is collisionless magnetic reconnection, where both points of views are espoused by different groups of researchers. This presentation will focus on this topic. We will begin by analyzing the properties of electron diffusion region dynamics both for guide field and anti-parallel reconnection, and how they can be scaled to different inflow conditions. As a next step, we will study typical temporal variations of the microscopic dynamics with the objective of understanding the potential for secular changes to the macroscopic system. The research will be based on a combination of analytical theory and numerical modeling.

  4. Multiscale modeling of pedestrian dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Cristiani, Emiliano; Tosin, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    This book presents mathematical models and numerical simulations of crowd dynamics. The core topic is the development of a new multiscale paradigm, which bridges the microscopic and macroscopic scales taking the most from each of them for capturing the relevant clues of complexity of crowds. The background idea is indeed that most of the complex trends exhibited by crowds are due to an intrinsic interplay between individual and collective behaviors. The modeling approach promoted in this book pursues actively this intuition and profits from it for designing general mathematical structures susceptible of application also in fields different from the inspiring original one. The book considers also the two most traditional points of view: the microscopic one, in which pedestrians are tracked individually, and the macroscopic one, in which pedestrians are assimilated to a continuum. Selected existing models are critically analyzed. The work is addressed to researchers and graduate students.

  5. Global dynamics, phase space transport, orbits homoclinic to resonances, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Wiggins, Stephen

    1993-01-01

    This monograph, which grew out of a series of lectures delivered by Stephen Wiggins at the Fields Institute in early 1993, is concerned with the geometrical viewpoint of the global dynamics of nonlinear dynamical systems. With appropriate examples and concise explanations, Wiggins unites many different topics into one volume and makes a unique contribution to the field. Engineers, physicists, chemists, and mathematicians who work on issues related to the global dynamics of nonlinear dynamical systems will find these lectures very useful.

  6. Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

    2014-11-01

    Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

  7. Mathematical modeling of infectious disease dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siettos, Constantinos I.; Russo, Lucia

    2013-01-01

    Over the last years, an intensive worldwide effort is speeding up the developments in the establishment of a global surveillance network for combating pandemics of emergent and re-emergent infectious diseases. Scientists from different fields extending from medicine and molecular biology to computer science and applied mathematics have teamed up for rapid assessment of potentially urgent situations. Toward this aim mathematical modeling plays an important role in efforts that focus on predicting, assessing, and controlling potential outbreaks. To better understand and model the contagious dynamics the impact of numerous variables ranging from the micro host–pathogen level to host-to-host interactions, as well as prevailing ecological, social, economic, and demographic factors across the globe have to be analyzed and thoroughly studied. Here, we present and discuss the main approaches that are used for the surveillance and modeling of infectious disease dynamics. We present the basic concepts underpinning their implementation and practice and for each category we give an annotated list of representative works. PMID:23552814

  8. Mapping global surface water inundation dynamics using synergistic information from SMAP, AMSR2 and Landsat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, J.; Kimball, J. S.; Galantowicz, J. F.; Kim, S.; Chan, S.; Reichle, R. H.; Jones, L. A.; Watts, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    A method to monitor global land surface water (fw) inundation dynamics was developed by exploiting the enhanced fw sensitivity of L-band (1.4 GHz) passive microwave observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission. The L-band fw (fwLBand) retrievals were derived using SMAP H-polarization brightness temperature (Tb) observations and predefined L-band reference microwave emissivities for water and land endmembers. Potential soil moisture and vegetation contributions to the microwave signal were represented from overlapping higher frequency Tb observations from AMSR2. The resulting fwLBand global record has high temporal sampling (1-3 days) and 36-km spatial resolution. The fwLBand annual averages corresponded favourably (R=0.84, pretrievals showed favourable classification accuracy for water (commission error 31.84%; omission error 28.08%) and land (commission error 0.82%; omission error 0.99%) and seasonal wet and dry periods when compared to independent water maps derived from Landsat-8 imagery. The new fwLBand algorithms and continuing SMAP and AMSR2 operations provide for near real-time, multi-scale monitoring of global surface water inundation dynamics, potentially benefiting hydrological monitoring, flood assessments, and global climate and carbon modeling.

  9. A dynamic marketing model with best reply and inertia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bischi, Gian Italo; Cerboni Baiardi, Lorenzo

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we consider a nonlinear discrete-time dynamic model proposed by Farris et al. (2005) as a market share attraction model with two firms that decide marketing efforts over time according to best reply strategies with naïve expectations. The model also considers an adaptive adjustment toward best reply, a form of inertia or anchoring attitude, and we investigate the effects of heterogeneities among firms. A rich scenario of local and global bifurcations is obtained even with just two competing firms, and a comparison is proposed with apparently similar duopoly models based on repeated best reply dynamics with naïve expectations and adaptive adjustment.

  10. Sensitivity of global ocean biogeochemical dynamics to ecosystem structure in a future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manizza, Manfredi; Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Le Quéré, Corinne

    2010-07-01

    Terrestrial and oceanic ecosystem components of the Earth System models (ESMs) are key to predict the future behavior of the global carbon cycle. Ocean ecosystem models represent low complexity compared to terrestrial ecosystem models. In this study we use two ocean biogeochemical models based on the explicit representation of multiple planktonic functional types. We impose to the models the same future physical perturbation and compare the response of ecosystem dynamics, export production (EP) and ocean carbon uptake (OCU) to the same physical changes. Models comparison shows that: (1) EP changes directly translate into changes of OCU on decadal time scale, (2) the representation of ecosystem structure plays a pivotal role at linking OCU and EP, (3) OCU is highly sensitive to representation of ecosystem in the Equatorial Pacific and Southern Oceans.

  11. Global plastic models for computerized structural analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roche, R.L.; Hoffmann, A.

    1977-01-01

    In many types of structures, it is possible to use generalized stresses (like membrane forces, bending moment, torsion moment...) to define a yield surface for a part of the structure. Analysis can be achieved by using the HILL's principle and a hardening rule. The whole formulation is said 'Global Plastic Model'. Two different global models are used in the CEASEMT system for structural analysis, one for shell analysis and the other for piping analysis (in plastic or creep field). In shell analysis the generalized stresses chosen are the membrane forces and bending (including torsion) moments. There is only one yield condition for a normal to the middle surface and no integration along the thickness is required. In piping analysis, the choice of generalized stresses is bending moments, torsional moment, hoop stress and tension stress. There is only a set of stresses for a cross section and no integration over the cross section area is needed. Connected strains are axis curvature, torsion, uniform strains. The definition of the yield surface is the most important item. A practical way is to use a diagonal quadratic function of the stress components. But the coefficients are depending of the shape of the pipe element, especially for curved segments. Indications will be given on the yield functions used. Some examples of applications in structural analysis are added to the text

  12. Modeling global scene factors in attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torralba, Antonio

    2003-07-01

    Models of visual attention have focused predominantly on bottom-up approaches that ignored structured contextual and scene information. I propose a model of contextual cueing for attention guidance based on the global scene configuration. It is shown that the statistics of low-level features across the whole image can be used to prime the presence or absence of objects in the scene and to predict their location, scale, and appearance before exploring the image. In this scheme, visual context information can become available early in the visual processing chain, which allows modulation of the saliency of image regions and provides an efficient shortcut for object detection and recognition. 2003 Optical Society of America

  13. A Global Atmospheric Model of Meteoric Iron

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Wuhu; Marsh, Daniel R.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Janches, Diego; Hoffner, Josef; Yi, Fan; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-01-01

    The first global model of meteoric iron in the atmosphere (WACCM-Fe) has been developed by combining three components: the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a description of the neutral and ion-molecule chemistry of iron in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), and a treatment of the injection of meteoric constituents into the atmosphere. The iron chemistry treats seven neutral and four ionized iron containing species with 30 neutral and ion-molecule reactions. The meteoric input function (MIF), which describes the injection of Fe as a function of height, latitude, and day, is precalculated from an astronomical model coupled to a chemical meteoric ablation model (CABMOD). This newly developed WACCM-Fe model has been evaluated against a number of available ground-based lidar observations and performs well in simulating the mesospheric atomic Fe layer. The model reproduces the strong positive correlation of temperature and Fe density around the Fe layer peak and the large anticorrelation around 100 km. The diurnal tide has a significant effect in the middle of the layer, and the model also captures well the observed seasonal variations. However, the model overestimates the peak Fe+ concentration compared with the limited rocket-borne mass spectrometer data available, although good agreement on the ion layer underside can be obtained by adjusting the rate coefficients for dissociative recombination of Fe-molecular ions with electrons. Sensitivity experiments with the same chemistry in a 1-D model are used to highlight significant remaining uncertainties in reaction rate coefficients, and to explore the dependence of the total Fe abundance on the MIF and rate of vertical transport.

  14. The Software Architecture of Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, K. A.; Easterbrook, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    It has become common to compare and contrast the output of multiple global climate models (GCMs), such as in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). However, intercomparisons of the software architecture of GCMs are almost nonexistent. In this qualitative study of seven GCMs from Canada, the United States, and Europe, we attempt to fill this gap in research. We describe the various representations of the climate system as computer programs, and account for architectural differences between models. Most GCMs now practice component-based software engineering, where Earth system components (such as the atmosphere or land surface) are present as highly encapsulated sub-models. This architecture facilitates a mix-and-match approach to climate modelling that allows for convenient sharing of model components between institutions, but it also leads to difficulty when choosing where to draw the lines between systems that are not encapsulated in the real world, such as sea ice. We also examine different styles of couplers in GCMs, which manage interaction and data flow between components. Finally, we pay particular attention to the varying levels of complexity in GCMs, both between and within models. Many GCMs have some components that are significantly more complex than others, a phenomenon which can be explained by the respective institution's research goals as well as the origin of the model components. In conclusion, although some features of software architecture have been adopted by every GCM we examined, other features show a wide range of different design choices and strategies. These architectural differences may provide new insights into variability and spread between models.

  15. Sensitivities in global scale modeling of isoprene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. von Kuhlmann

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available A sensitivity study of the treatment of isoprene and related parameters in 3D atmospheric models was conducted using the global model of tropospheric chemistry MATCH-MPIC. A total of twelve sensitivity scenarios which can be grouped into four thematic categories were performed. These four categories consist of simulations with different chemical mechanisms, different assumptions concerning the deposition characteristics of intermediate products, assumptions concerning the nitrates from the oxidation of isoprene and variations of the source strengths. The largest differences in ozone compared to the reference simulation occured when a different isoprene oxidation scheme was used (up to 30-60% or about 10 nmol/mol. The largest differences in the abundance of peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN were found when the isoprene emission strength was reduced by 50% and in tests with increased or decreased efficiency of the deposition of intermediates. The deposition assumptions were also found to have a significant effect on the upper tropospheric HOx production. Different implicit assumptions about the loss of intermediate products were identified as a major reason for the deviations among the tested isoprene oxidation schemes. The total tropospheric burden of O3 calculated in the sensitivity runs is increased compared to the background methane chemistry by 26±9  Tg( O3 from 273 to an average from the sensitivity runs of 299 Tg(O3. % revised Thus, there is a spread of ± 35% of the overall effect of isoprene in the model among the tested scenarios. This range of uncertainty and the much larger local deviations found in the test runs suggest that the treatment of isoprene in global models can only be seen as a first order estimate at present, and points towards specific processes in need of focused future work.

  16. Modelling machine ensembles with discrete event dynamical system theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Dan

    1990-01-01

    Discrete Event Dynamical System (DEDS) theory can be utilized as a control strategy for future complex machine ensembles that will be required for in-space construction. The control strategy involves orchestrating a set of interactive submachines to perform a set of tasks for a given set of constraints such as minimum time, minimum energy, or maximum machine utilization. Machine ensembles can be hierarchically modeled as a global model that combines the operations of the individual submachines. These submachines are represented in the global model as local models. Local models, from the perspective of DEDS theory , are described by the following: a set of system and transition states, an event alphabet that portrays actions that takes a submachine from one state to another, an initial system state, a partial function that maps the current state and event alphabet to the next state, and the time required for the event to occur. Each submachine in the machine ensemble is presented by a unique local model. The global model combines the local models such that the local models can operate in parallel under the additional logistic and physical constraints due to submachine interactions. The global model is constructed from the states, events, event functions, and timing requirements of the local models. Supervisory control can be implemented in the global model by various methods such as task scheduling (open-loop control) or implementing a feedback DEDS controller (closed-loop control).

  17. Characterizing and Modeling Citation Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eom, Young-Ho; Fortunato, Santo

    2011-01-01

    Citation distributions are crucial for the analysis and modeling of the activity of scientists. We investigated bibliometric data of papers published in journals of the American Physical Society, searching for the type of function which best describes the observed citation distributions. We used the goodness of fit with Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics for three classes of functions: log-normal, simple power law and shifted power law. The shifted power law turns out to be the most reliable hypothesis for all citation networks we derived, which correspond to different time spans. We find that citation dynamics is characterized by bursts, usually occurring within a few years since publication of a paper, and the burst size spans several orders of magnitude. We also investigated the microscopic mechanisms for the evolution of citation networks, by proposing a linear preferential attachment with time dependent initial attractiveness. The model successfully reproduces the empirical citation distributions and accounts for the presence of citation bursts as well. PMID:21966387

  18. MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR RIVERBOAT DYNAMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksander Grm

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Present work describes a simple dynamical model for riverboat motion based on the square drag law. Air and water interactions with the boat are determined from aerodynamic coefficients. CFX simulations were performed with fully developed turbulent flow to determine boat aerodynamic coefficients for an arbitrary angle of attack for the air and water portions separately. The effect of wave resistance is negligible compared to other forces. Boat movement analysis considers only two-dimensional motion, therefore only six aerodynamics coefficients are required. The proposed model is solved and used to determine the critical environmental parameters (wind and current under which river navigation can be conducted safely. Boat simulator was tested in a single area on the Ljubljanica river and estimated critical wind velocity.

  19. CoDCon Dynamic Modeling.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cipiti, Benjamin B. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    The Co-Decontamination (CoDCon) Demonstration project is designed to test the separation of a mixed U and Pu product from dissolved spent nuclear fuel. The primary purpose of the project is to quantify the accuracy and precision to which a U/Pu mass ratio can be achieved without removing a pure Pu product. The system includes an on-line monitoring system using spectroscopy to monitor the ratios throughout the process. A dynamic model of the CoDCon flowsheet and on-line monitoring system was developed in order to expand the range of scenarios that can be examined for process control and determine overall measurement uncertainty. The model development and initial results are presented here.

  20. Modeling the dynamics of choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, William M; Davison, Michael

    2009-06-01

    A simple linear-operator model both describes and predicts the dynamics of choice that may underlie the matching relation. We measured inter-food choice within components of a schedule that presented seven different pairs of concurrent variable-interval schedules for 12 food deliveries each with no signals indicating which pair was in force. This measure of local choice was accurately described and predicted as obtained reinforcer sequences shifted it to favor one alternative or the other. The effect of a changeover delay was reflected in one parameter, the asymptote, whereas the effect of a difference in overall rate of food delivery was reflected in the other parameter, rate of approach to the asymptote. The model takes choice as a primary dependent variable, not derived by comparison between alternatives-an approach that agrees with the molar view of behaviour.

  1. Evaluation of global solar radiation models for Shanghai, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yao, Wanxiang; Li, Zhengrong; Wang, Yuyan; Jiang, Fujian; Hu, Lingzhou

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • 108 existing models are compared and analyzed by 42 years meteorological data. • Fitting models based on measured data are established according to 42 years data. • All models are compared by recently 10 years meteorological data. • The results show that polynomial models are the most accurate models. - Abstract: In this paper, 89 existing monthly average daily global solar radiation models and 19 existing daily global solar radiation models are compared and analyzed by 42 years meteorological data. The results show that for existing monthly average daily global solar radiation models, linear models and polynomial models have been able to estimate global solar radiation accurately, and complex equation types cannot obviously improve the precision. Considering direct parameters such as latitude, altitude, solar altitude and sunshine duration can help improve the accuracy of the models, but indirect parameters cannot. For existing daily global solar radiation models, multi-parameter models are more accurate than single-parameter models, polynomial models are more accurate than linear models. Then measured data fitting monthly average daily global solar radiation models (MADGSR models) and daily global solar radiation models (DGSR models) are established according to 42 years meteorological data. Finally, existing models and fitting models based on measured data are comparative analysis by recent 10 years meteorological data, and the results show that polynomial models (MADGSR model 2, DGSR model 2 and Maduekwe model 2) are the most accurate models

  2. Dynamical modeling of tidal streams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bovy, Jo

    2014-01-01

    I present a new framework for modeling the dynamics of tidal streams. The framework consists of simple models for the initial action-angle distribution of tidal debris, which can be straightforwardly evolved forward in time. Taking advantage of the essentially one-dimensional nature of tidal streams, the transformation to position-velocity coordinates can be linearized and interpolated near a small number of points along the stream, thus allowing for efficient computations of a stream's properties in observable quantities. I illustrate how to calculate the stream's average location (its 'track') in different coordinate systems, how to quickly estimate the dispersion around its track, and how to draw mock stream data. As a generative model, this framework allows one to compute the full probability distribution function and marginalize over or condition it on certain phase-space dimensions as well as convolve it with observational uncertainties. This will be instrumental in proper data analysis of stream data. In addition to providing a computationally efficient practical tool for modeling the dynamics of tidal streams, the action-angle nature of the framework helps elucidate how the observed width of the stream relates to the velocity dispersion or mass of the progenitor, and how the progenitors of 'orphan' streams could be located. The practical usefulness of the proposed framework crucially depends on the ability to calculate action-angle variables for any orbit in any gravitational potential. A novel method for calculating actions, frequencies, and angles in any static potential using a single orbit integration is described in the Appendix.

  3. Improved Hydrology over Peatlands in a Global Land Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechtold, M.; Delannoy, G.; Reichle, R.; Koster, R.; Mahanama, S.; Roose, Dirk

    2018-01-01

    Peatlands of the Northern Hemisphere represent an important carbon pool that mainly accumulated since the last ice age under permanently wet conditions in specific geological and climatic settings. The carbon balance of peatlands is closely coupled to water table dynamics. Consequently, the future carbon balance over peatlands is strongly dependent on how hydrology in peatlands will react to changing boundary conditions, e.g. due to climate change or regional water level drawdown of connected aquifers or streams. Global land surface modeling over organic-rich regions can provide valuable global-scale insights on where and how peatlands are in transition due to changing boundary conditions. However, the current global land surface models are not able to reproduce typical hydrological dynamics in peatlands well. We implemented specific structural and parametric changes to account for key hydrological characteristics of peatlands into NASA's GEOS-5 Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM, Koster et al. 2000). The main modifications pertain to the modeling of partial inundation, and the definition of peatland-specific runoff and evapotranspiration schemes. We ran a set of simulations on a high performance cluster using different CLSM configurations and validated the results with a newly compiled global in-situ dataset of water table depths in peatlands. The results demonstrate that an update of soil hydraulic properties for peat soils alone does not improve the performance of CLSM over peatlands. However, structural model changes for peatlands are able to improve the skill metrics for water table depth. The validation results for the water table depth indicate a reduction of the bias from 2.5 to 0.2 m, and an improvement of the temporal correlation coefficient from 0.5 to 0.65, and from 0.4 to 0.55 for the anomalies. Our validation data set includes both bogs (rain-fed) and fens (ground and/or surface water influence) and reveals that the metrics improved less for fens. In

  4. Dynamical Analysis of a Nitrogen-Phosphorus-Phytoplankton Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunli Deng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a nitrogen-phosphorus-phytoplankton model in a water ecosystem. The main aim of this research is to analyze the global system dynamics and to study the existence and stability of equilibria. It is shown that the phytoplankton-eradication equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if the input nitrogen concentration is less than a certain threshold. However, the coexistence equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable as long as it exists. The system is uniformly persistent within threshold values of certain key parameters. Finally, to verify the results, numerical simulations are provided.

  5. Inflationary α -attractor cosmology: A global dynamical systems perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alho, Artur; Uggla, Claes

    2017-04-01

    We study flat Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker α -attractor E- and T-models by introducing a dynamical systems framework that yields regularized unconstrained field equations on two-dimensional compact state spaces. This results in both illustrative figures and a complete description of the entire solution spaces of these models, including asymptotics. In particular, it is shown that observational viability, which requires a sufficient number of e -folds, is associated with a particular solution given by a one-dimensional center manifold of a past asymptotic de Sitter state, where the center manifold structure also explains why nearby solutions are attracted to this "inflationary attractor solution." A center manifold expansion yields a description of the inflationary regime with arbitrary analytic accuracy, where the slow-roll approximation asymptotically describes the tangency condition of the center manifold at the asymptotic de Sitter state.

  6. Progress Towards a Global Understanding of Plankton Dynamics: The Global Alliance of CPR Surveys (GACS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batten, S.; Richardson, A.; Melrose, C.; Muxagata, E.; Hosie, G.; Verheye, H.; Hall, J.; Edwards, M.; Koubbi, P.; Abu-Alhaija, R.; Chiba, S.; Wilson, W.; Nagappa, R.; Takahashi, K.

    2016-02-01

    The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) was first used in 1931 to routinely sample plankton and its continued deployment now sustains the longest-running, and spatially most extensive marine biological sampling programme in the world. Towed behind, for the most part commercial, ships it collects plankton samples from the surface waters that are subsequently analysed to provide taxonomically-resolved abundance data on a broad range of planktonic organisms from the size of coccolithophores to euphausiids. Plankton appear to integrate changes in the physical environment and by underpinning most marine food-webs, pass on this variability to higher trophic levels which have societal value. CPRs are deployed increasingly around the globe in discrete regional surveys that until recently interacted in an informal way. In 2011 the Global Alliance of CPR Surveys (GACS) was launched to bring these surveys together to collaborate more productively and address issues such as: methodological standardization, data integration, capacity building, and data analysis. Early products include a combined global database and regularly-released global marine ecological status reports. There are, of course, limitations to the exploitation of CPR data as well as the current geographic coverage. A current focus of GACS is integration of the data with models to meaningfully extrapolate across time and space. In this way the output could be used to provide more robust synoptic representations of key plankton variables. Recent years have also seen the CPR used as a platform in itself with the inclusion of additional sensors and water samplers that can sample the microplankton. The archive of samples has already been used for some molecular investigations and curation of samples is maintained for future studies. Thus the CPR is a key element of any regional to global ocean observing system of biodiversity.

  7. Formulation of an ocean model for global climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Griffies

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper summarizes the formulation of the ocean component to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL climate model used for the 4th IPCC Assessment (AR4 of global climate change. In particular, it reviews the numerical schemes and physical parameterizations that make up an ocean climate model and how these schemes are pieced together for use in a state-of-the-art climate model. Features of the model described here include the following: (1 tripolar grid to resolve the Arctic Ocean without polar filtering, (2 partial bottom step representation of topography to better represent topographically influenced advective and wave processes, (3 more accurate equation of state, (4 three-dimensional flux limited tracer advection to reduce overshoots and undershoots, (5 incorporation of regional climatological variability in shortwave penetration, (6 neutral physics parameterization for representation of the pathways of tracer transport, (7 staggered time stepping for tracer conservation and numerical efficiency, (8 anisotropic horizontal viscosities for representation of equatorial currents, (9 parameterization of exchange with marginal seas, (10 incorporation of a free surface that accomodates a dynamic ice model and wave propagation, (11 transport of water across the ocean free surface to eliminate unphysical ``virtual tracer flux' methods, (12 parameterization of tidal mixing on continental shelves. We also present preliminary analyses of two particularly important sensitivities isolated during the development process, namely the details of how parameterized subgridscale eddies transport momentum and tracers.

  8. Modelling the Congo basin ecosystems with a dynamic vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dury, Marie; Hambuckers, Alain; Trolliet, Franck; Huynen, Marie-Claude; Haineaux, Damien; Fontaine, Corentin M.; Fayolle, Adeline; François, Louis

    2014-05-01

    The scarcity of field observations in some parts of the world makes difficult a deep understanding of some ecosystems such as humid tropical forests in Central Africa. Therefore, modelling tools are interesting alternatives to study those regions even if the lack of data often prevents sharp calibration and validation of the model projections. Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) are process-based models that simulate shifts in potential vegetation and its associated biogeochemical and hydrological cycles in response to climate. Initially run at the global scale, DVMs can be run at any spatial scale provided that climate and soil data are available. In the framework of the BIOSERF project ("Sustainability of tropical forest biodiversity and services under climate and human pressure"), we use and adapt the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) to study the Congo basin vegetation dynamics. The field campaigns have notably allowed the refinement of the vegetation representation from plant functional types (PFTs) to individual species through the collection of parameters such as the specific leaf area or the leaf C:N ratio of common tropical tree species and the location of their present-day occurrences from literature and available database. Here, we test the model ability to reproduce the present spatial and temporal variations of carbon stocks (e.g. biomass, soil carbon) and fluxes (e.g. gross and net primary productivities (GPP and NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP)) as well as the observed distribution of the studied species over the Congo basin. In the lack of abundant and long-term measurements, we compare model results with time series of remote sensing products (e.g. vegetation leaf area index (LAI), GPP and NPP). Several sensitivity tests are presented: we assess consecutively the impacts of the level at which the vegetation is simulated (PFTs or species), the spatial resolution and the initial land

  9. A global first integral for certain dynamical systems and related remarks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez-Gascon, F.

    1977-01-01

    A global first integral for certain dynamical systems and the related remarks are presented. In particular, it is shown that for these dynamical systems by introducing the (intrinsic) definition of the divergence of a vector field defined on an orientable differentiable manifold, the first integral, i.e. the (intrinsic) divergence of a vector field is now, automatically, a global first integral. (author)

  10. Dynamical relaxation in 2HDM models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalak, Zygmunt; Markiewicz, Adam

    2018-03-01

    Dynamical relaxation provides an interesting solution to the hierarchy problem in face of the missing signatures of any new physics in recent experiments. Through a dynamical process taking place in the inflationary phase of the Universe it manages to achieve a small electroweak scale without introducing new states observable in current experiments. Appropriate approximation makes it possible to derive an explicit formula for the final vevs in the double-scanning scenario extended to a model with two Higgs doublets (2HDM). Analysis of the relaxation in the 2HDM confirms that in a general case it is impossible to keep vevs of both scalars small, unless fine-tuning is present or additional symmetries are cast upon the Lagrangian. Within the slightly constrained variant of the 2HDM, where odd powers of the fields’ expectation values are not present (which can be easily enforced by requiring that the doublets have different gauge transformations or by imposing a global symmetry) it is shown that the difference between the vevs of two scalars tends to be proportional to the cutoff. The analysis of the relaxation in 2HDM indicates that in a general case the relaxation would be stopped by the first doublet that gains a vev, with the other one remaining vevless with a mass of the order of the cutoff. This happens to conform with the inert doublet model.

  11. Globally COnstrained Local Function Approximation via Hierarchical Modelling, a Framework for System Modelling under Partial Information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øjelund, Henrik; Sadegh, Payman

    2000-01-01

    be obtained. This paper presents a new approach for system modelling under partial (global) information (or the so called Gray-box modelling) that seeks to perserve the benefits of the global as well as local methodologies sithin a unified framework. While the proposed technique relies on local approximations......Local function approximations concern fitting low order models to weighted data in neighbourhoods of the points where the approximations are desired. Despite their generality and convenience of use, local models typically suffer, among others, from difficulties arising in physical interpretation...... simultaneously with the (local estimates of) function values. The approach is applied to modelling of a linear time variant dynamic system under prior linear time invariant structure where local regression fails as a result of high dimensionality....

  12. The Global Modeling Test Bed - Building a New National Capability for Advancing Operational Global Modeling in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toepfer, F.; Cortinas, J. V., Jr.; Kuo, W.; Tallapragada, V.; Stajner, I.; Nance, L. B.; Kelleher, K. E.; Firl, G.; Bernardet, L.

    2017-12-01

    NOAA develops, operates, and maintains an operational global modeling capability for weather, sub seasonal and seasonal prediction for the protection of life and property and fostering the US economy. In order to substantially improve the overall performance and accelerate advancements of the operational modeling suite, NOAA is partnering with NCAR to design and build the Global Modeling Test Bed (GMTB). The GMTB has been established to provide a platform and a capability for researchers to contribute to the advancement primarily through the development of physical parameterizations needed to improve operational NWP. The strategy to achieve this goal relies on effectively leveraging global expertise through a modern collaborative software development framework. This framework consists of a repository of vetted and supported physical parameterizations known as the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP), a common well-documented interface known as the Interoperable Physics Driver (IPD) for combining schemes into suites and for their configuration and connection to dynamic cores, and an open evidence-based governance process for managing the development and evolution of CCPP. In addition, a physics test harness designed to work within this framework has been established in order to facilitate easier like-to-like comparison of physics advancements. This paper will present an overview of the design of the CCPP and test platform. Additionally, an overview of potential new opportunities of how physics developers can engage in the process, from implementing code for CCPP/IPD compliance to testing their development within an operational-like software environment, will be presented. In addition, insight will be given as to how development gets elevated to CPPP-supported status, the pre-cursor to broad availability and use within operational NWP. An overview of how the GMTB can be expanded to support other global or regional modeling capabilities will also be presented.

  13. A global digital elevation model - GTOP030

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-01-01

    GTOP030, the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) digital elevation model (DEM) of the Earth, provides the flrst global coverage of moderate resolution elevation data.  The original GTOP30 data set, which was developed over a 3-year period through a collaborative effort led by the USGS, was completed in 1996 at the USGS EROS Data Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.  The collaboration involved contributions of staffing, funding, or source data from cooperators including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the United Nations Environment Programme Global Resource Information Database (UNEP/GRID), the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica (INEGI) of Mexico, the Geographical Survey Institute (GSI) of Japan, Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research of New Zealand, and the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). In 1999, work was begun on an update to the GTOP030 data set. Additional data sources are being incorporated into GTOP030 with an enhanced and improved data set planned for release in 2000.

  14. Use of wind data in global modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pailleux, J.

    1985-01-01

    The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is producing operational global analyses every 6 hours and operational global forecasts every day from the 12Z analysis. How the wind data are used in the ECMWF golbal analysis is described. For each current wind observing system, its ability to provide initial conditions for the forecast model is discussed as well as its weaknesses. An assessment of the impact of each individual system on the quality of the analysis and the forecast is given each time it is possible. Sometimes the deficiencies which are pointed out are related not only to the observing system itself but also to the optimum interpolation (OI) analysis scheme; then some improvements are generally possible through ad hoc modifications of the analysis scheme and especially tunings of the structure functions. Examples are given. The future observing network over the North Atlantic is examined. Several countries, coordinated by WMO, are working to set up an 'Operational WWW System Evaluation' (OWSE), in order to evaluate the operational aspects of the deployment of new systems (ASDAR, ASAP). Most of the new systems are expected to be deployed before January 1987, and in order to make the best use of the available resources during the deployment phase, some network studies are carried out at the present time, by using simulated data for ASDAR and ASAP systems. They are summarized.

  15. System Dynamics Modelling for a Balanced Scorecard

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steen; Nielsen, Erland Hejn

    2008-01-01

    /methodology/approach - We use a case study model to develop time or dynamic dimensions by using a System Dynamics modelling (SDM) approach. The model includes five perspectives and a number of financial and non-financial measures. All indicators are defined and related to a coherent number of different cause...... have a major influence on other indicators and profit and may be impossible to predict without using a dynamic model. Practical implications - The model may be used as the first step in quantifying the cause-and-effect relationships of an integrated BSC model. Using the System Dynamics model provides......Purpose - To construct a dynamic model/framework inspired by a case study based on an international company. As described by the theory, one of the main difficulties of BSC is to foresee the time lag dimension of different types of indicators and their combined dynamic effects. Design...

  16. 2-D model of global aerosol transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rehkopf, J; Newiger, M; Grassl, H

    1984-01-01

    The distribution of aerosol particles in the troposphere is described. Starting with long term mean seasonal flow and diffusivities as well as temperature, cloud distribution (six cloud classes), relative humidity and OH radical concentration, the steady state concentration of aerosol particles and SO/sub 2/ are calculated in a two-dimensional global (height and latitude) model. The following sources and sinks for particles are handled: direct emission, gas-to-particle conversion from SO/sub 2/, coagulation, rainout, washout, gravitational settling, and dry deposition. The sinks considered for sulphur emissions are dry deposition, washout, rainout, gasphase oxidation, and aqueous phase oxidation. Model tests with the water vapour cycle show a good agreement between measured and calculated zonal mean precipitation distribution. The steady state concentration distribution for natural emissions reached after 10 weeks model time, may be described by a mean exponent ..cap alpha.. = 3.2 near the surface assuming a modified Junge distribution and an increased value, ..cap alpha.. = 3.7, for the combined natural and man-made emission. The maximum ground level concentrations are 2000 and 10,000 particules cm/sup -3/ for natural and natural plus man-made emissions, respectively. The resulting distribution of sulphur dioxide agrees satisfactorily with measurements given by several authors. 37 references, 4 figures.

  17. Dynamical reconstruction of the global ocean state during the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurahashi-Nakamura, Takasumi; Paul, André; Losch, Martin

    2017-04-01

    The global ocean state for the modern age and for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was dynamically reconstructed with a sophisticated data assimilation technique. A substantial amount of data including global seawater temperature, salinity (only for the modern estimate), and the isotopic composition of oxygen and carbon (only in the Atlantic for the LGM) were integrated into an ocean general circulation model with the help of the adjoint method, thereby the model was optimized to reconstruct plausible continuous fields of tracers, overturning circulation and water mass distribution. The adjoint-based LGM state estimation of this study represents the state of the art in terms of the length of forward model runs, the number of observations assimilated, and the model domain. Compared to the modern state, the reconstructed continuous sea-surface temperature field for the LGM shows a global-mean cooling of 2.2 K, and the reconstructed LGM ocean has a more vigorous Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, shallower North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) equivalent, stronger stratification, and more saline deep water.

  18. Global existence and exponential growth for a viscoelastic wave equation with dynamic boundary conditions

    KAUST Repository

    Gerbi, Sté phane; Said-Houari, Belkacem

    2013-01-01

    The goal of this work is to study a model of the wave equation with dynamic boundary conditions and a viscoelastic term. First, applying the Faedo-Galerkin method combined with the fixed point theorem, we show the existence and uniqueness of a local in time solution. Second, we show that under some restrictions on the initial data, the solution continues to exist globally in time. On the other hand, if the interior source dominates the boundary damping, then the solution is unbounded and grows as an exponential function. In addition, in the absence of the strong damping, then the solution ceases to exist and blows up in finite time.

  19. Global existence and exponential growth for a viscoelastic wave equation with dynamic boundary conditions

    KAUST Repository

    Gerbi, Stéphane

    2013-01-15

    The goal of this work is to study a model of the wave equation with dynamic boundary conditions and a viscoelastic term. First, applying the Faedo-Galerkin method combined with the fixed point theorem, we show the existence and uniqueness of a local in time solution. Second, we show that under some restrictions on the initial data, the solution continues to exist globally in time. On the other hand, if the interior source dominates the boundary damping, then the solution is unbounded and grows as an exponential function. In addition, in the absence of the strong damping, then the solution ceases to exist and blows up in finite time.

  20. Dynamics in the global protected-area estate since 2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Edward; MacSharry, Brian; Juffe-Bignoli, Diego; Harris, Nyeema; Burrows, Georgina; Kingston, Naomi; Burgess, Neil D

    2017-11-23

    Nations of the world have committed to a number of goals and targets to address the global environmental challenges humanity faces. Protected areas have for centuries been a key strategy in conservation and play a major role in addressing current challenges. The most important tool used to track progress on protected area commitments is the World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA). Periodic assessments of the world's protected area estate show steady growth over the last two decades. However, the current method, which uses the latest version of the WDPA, does not show the true dynamic nature of protected areas over time, nor does it provide information on sites removed from the WDPA. In reality, this methodology can only show growth or remain stable. This paper presents a novel approach to assess protected area change over time using twelve temporally distinct versions of the WDPA that quantify area added, and removed, from the WDPA annually from 2004 to 2016. Results show that both the narrative of continual protected area growth and the counter-narrative of protected area removal are overly simplistic. The former because growth has been almost entirely marine and the latter because we demonstrate that some areas removed are re-protected in later years. Analysis indicates that, on average, 2.5 million km 2 is added to the WDPA annually and 1.1 million km 2 is removed. Reasons for the inclusion and removal of protected areas in the WDPA database are explored and discussed. To meet the 17% land coverage component of Aichi Biodiversity Target 11 by 2020, which stands at 14.7% in 2016, the world will either need to reduce the rate of protected area removal or increase the rate of protected area designation and addition to the WDPA. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  1. BETR global - A geographically-explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacLeod, Matthew; Waldow, Harald von; Tay, Pascal; Armitage, James M.; Woehrnschimmel, Henry; Riley, William J.; McKone, Thomas E.; Hungerbuhler, Konrad

    2011-01-01

    We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15 o x 15 o grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5). - Two new software implementations of the Berkeley-Trent Global Contaminant Fate Model are available. The new model software is illustrated using a case study of the global fate of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

  2. Review of various dynamic modeling methods and development of an intuitive modeling method for dynamic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Seung Ki; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2008-01-01

    Conventional static reliability analysis methods are inadequate for modeling dynamic interactions between components of a system. Various techniques such as dynamic fault tree, dynamic Bayesian networks, and dynamic reliability block diagrams have been proposed for modeling dynamic systems based on improvement of the conventional modeling methods. In this paper, we review these methods briefly and introduce dynamic nodes to the existing Reliability Graph with General Gates (RGGG) as an intuitive modeling method to model dynamic systems. For a quantitative analysis, we use a discrete-time method to convert an RGGG to an equivalent Bayesian network and develop a software tool for generation of probability tables

  3. Spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of global scale climate-groundwater interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuthbert, M. O.; Gleeson, T. P.; Moosdorf, N.; Schneider, A. C.; Hartmann, J.; Befus, K. M.; Lehner, B.

    2017-12-01

    The interactions between groundwater and climate are important to resolve in both space and time as they influence mass and energy transfers at Earth's land surface. Despite the significance of these processes, little is known about the spatio-temporal distribution of such interactions globally, and many large-scale climate, hydrological and land surface models oversimplify groundwater or exclude it completely. In this study we bring together diverse global geomatic data sets to map spatial patterns in the sensitivity and degree of connectedness between the water table and the land surface, and use the output from a global groundwater model to assess the locations where the lateral import or export of groundwater is significant. We also quantify the groundwater response time, the characteristic time for groundwater systems to respond to a change in boundary conditions, and map its distribution globally to assess the likely dynamics of groundwater's interaction with climate. We find that more than half of the global land surface significantly exports or imports groundwater laterally. Nearly 40% of Earth's landmass has water tables that are strongly coupled to topography with water tables shallow enough to enable a bi-directional exchange of moisture with the climate system. However, only a small proportion (around 12%) of such regions have groundwater response times of 100 years or less and have groundwater fluxes that would significantly respond to rapid environmental changes over this timescale. We last explore fundamental relationships between aridity, groundwater response times and groundwater turnover times. Our results have wide ranging implications for understanding and modelling changes in Earth's water and energy balance and for informing robust future water management and security decisions.

  4. Coping with the Collapse: A Stock-Flow Consistent Monetary Macro-dynamics of Global Warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giraud, Gael; Mc Isaac, Florent; Bovari, Emmanuel; Zatsepina, Ekaterina

    2016-08-01

    This paper presents a macro-economic model of endogenous growth that enables to take into consideration both the economic impact of climate change and the pivotal role of private debt. Using a Goodwin-Keen approach, based on the Lotka-Volterra logic, we couple its nonlinear dynamics of underemployment and income distribution with abatement costs. Moreover, various damage functions a la Nordhaus and Dietz-Stern reflect the loss in final production due to the temperature increase caused by the rising levels of CO_2 emissions. An empirical estimation of the model at the world-scale enables us to simulate plausible trajectories for the planetary business-as-usual scenario. Our main finding is that, even though the short-run impact of climate change on economic fundamentals may seem prima facie rather minor, its long-run dynamic consequences may lead to an extreme downside. Under plausible circumstances, global warming forces the private sector to leverage in order to compensate for output losses; the private debt overhang may eventually induce a global financial collapse, even before climate change could cause serious damage to the production sector. Under more severe conditions, the interplay between global warming and debt may lead to a secular stagnation followed by a collapse in the second half of this century. We analyze the extent to which slower demographic growth or higher carbon pricing allow a global breakdown to be avoided. The paper concludes by examining the conditions under which the +1.5 C target, adopted by the Paris Agreement (2015), could be reached. (authors)

  5. Characterizing and modeling citation dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young-Ho Eom

    Full Text Available Citation distributions are crucial for the analysis and modeling of the activity of scientists. We investigated bibliometric data of papers published in journals of the American Physical Society, searching for the type of function which best describes the observed citation distributions. We used the goodness of fit with Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics for three classes of functions: log-normal, simple power law and shifted power law. The shifted power law turns out to be the most reliable hypothesis for all citation networks we derived, which correspond to different time spans. We find that citation dynamics is characterized by bursts, usually occurring within a few years since publication of a paper, and the burst size spans several orders of magnitude. We also investigated the microscopic mechanisms for the evolution of citation networks, by proposing a linear preferential attachment with time dependent initial attractiveness. The model successfully reproduces the empirical citation distributions and accounts for the presence of citation bursts as well.

  6. Supply based on demand dynamical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levi, Asaf; Sabuco, Juan; Sanjuán, Miguel A. F.

    2018-04-01

    We propose and numerically analyze a simple dynamical model that describes the firm behaviors under uncertainty of demand. Iterating this simple model and varying some parameter values, we observe a wide variety of market dynamics such as equilibria, periodic, and chaotic behaviors. Interestingly, the model is also able to reproduce market collapses.

  7. Opinion dynamics model based on quantum formalism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Artawan, I. Nengah, E-mail: nengahartawan@gmail.com [Theoretical Physics Division, Department of Physics, Udayana University (Indonesia); Trisnawati, N. L. P., E-mail: nlptrisnawati@gmail.com [Biophysics, Department of Physics, Udayana University (Indonesia)

    2016-03-11

    Opinion dynamics model based on quantum formalism is proposed. The core of the quantum formalism is on the half spin dynamics system. In this research the implicit time evolution operators are derived. The analogy between the model with Deffuant dan Sznajd models is discussed.

  8. Global properties of symmetric competition models with riddling and blowout phenomena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giant-italo Bischi

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the problem of chaos synchronization, and the related phenomena of riddling, blowout and on–off intermittency, are considered for discrete time competition models with identical competitors. The global properties which determine the different effects of riddling and blowout bifurcations are studied by the method of critical curves, a tool for the study of the global dynamical properties of two-dimensional noninvertible maps. These techniques are applied to the study of a dynamic market-share competition model.

  9. BETR Global - A geographically explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Macleod, M.; Waldow, H. von; Tay, P.; Armitage, J. M.; Wohrnschimmel, H.; Riley, W.; McKone, T. E.; Hungerbuhler, K.

    2011-04-01

    We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15{sup o} x 15{sup o} grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

  10. Understanding Global Change: Frameworks and Models for Teaching Systems Thinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, J. R.; Mitchell, K.; Zoehfeld, K.; Oshry, A.; Menicucci, A. J.; White, L. D.; Marshall, C. R.

    2017-12-01

    The scientific and education communities must impart to teachers, students, and the public an understanding of how the various factors that drive climate and global change operate, and why the rates and magnitudes of these changes related to human perturbation of Earth system processes today are cause for deep concern. Even though effective educational modules explaining components of the Earth and climate system exist, interdisciplinary learning tools are necessary to conceptually link the causes and consequences of global changes. To address this issue, the Understanding Global Change Project at the University of California Museum of Paleontology (UCMP) at UC Berkeley developed an interdisciplinary framework that organizes global change topics into three categories: (1) causes of climate change, both human and non-human (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, Earth's tilt and orbit), (2) Earth system processes that shape the way the Earth works (e.g., Earth's energy budget, water cycle), and (3) the measurable changes in the Earth system (e.g., temperature, precipitation, ocean acidification). To facilitate student learning about the Earth as a dynamic, interacting system, a website will provide visualizations of Earth system models and written descriptions of how each framework topic is conceptually linked to other components of the framework. These visualizations and textual summarizations of relationships and feedbacks in the Earth system are a unique and crucial contribution to science communication and education, informed by a team of interdisciplinary scientists and educators. The system models are also mechanisms by which scientists can communicate how their own work informs our understanding of the Earth system. Educators can provide context and relevancy for authentic datasets and concurrently can assess student understanding of the interconnectedness of global change phenomena. The UGC resources will be available through a web-based platform and

  11. Moduli stabilisation for chiral global models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cicoli, Michele; Mayrhofer, Christoph; Valandro, Roberto

    2011-10-01

    We combine moduli stabilisation and (chiral) model building in a fully consistent global set-up in Type IIB/F-theory. We consider compactifications on Calabi-Yau orientifolds which admit an explicit description in terms of toric geometry. We build globally consistent compactifications with tadpole and Freed-Witten anomaly cancellation by choosing appropriate brane set-ups and world-volume fluxes which also give rise to SU(5)- or MSSM-like chiral models. We fix all the Kaehler moduli within the Kaehler cone and the regime of validity of the 4D effective field theory. This is achieved in a way compatible with the local presence of chirality. The hidden sector generating the non-perturbative effects is placed on a del Pezzo divisor that does not have any chiral intersections with any other brane. In general, the vanishing D-term condition implies the shrinking of the rigid divisor supporting the visible sector. However, we avoid this problem by generating r< n D-term conditions on a set of n intersecting divisors. The remaining (n-r) flat directions are fixed by perturbative corrections to the Kaehler potential. We illustrate our general claims in an explicit example. We consider a K3-fibred Calabi-Yau with four Kaehler moduli, that is an hypersurface in a toric ambient space and admits a simple F-theory up-lift. We present explicit choices of brane set-ups and fluxes which lead to three different phenomenological scenarios: the first with GUT-scale strings and TeV-scale SUSY by fine-tuning the background fluxes; the second with an exponentially large value of the volume and TeV-scale SUSY without fine-tuning the background fluxes; and the third with a very anisotropic configuration that leads to TeV-scale strings and two micron-sized extra dimensions. The K3 fibration structure of the Calabi-Yau three-fold is also particularly suitable for cosmological purposes. (orig.)

  12. Moduli stabilisation for chiral global models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cicoli, Michele [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy); Mayrhofer, Christoph [Heidelberg Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik; Valandro, Roberto [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). 2. Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik

    2011-10-15

    We combine moduli stabilisation and (chiral) model building in a fully consistent global set-up in Type IIB/F-theory. We consider compactifications on Calabi-Yau orientifolds which admit an explicit description in terms of toric geometry. We build globally consistent compactifications with tadpole and Freed-Witten anomaly cancellation by choosing appropriate brane set-ups and world-volume fluxes which also give rise to SU(5)- or MSSM-like chiral models. We fix all the Kaehler moduli within the Kaehler cone and the regime of validity of the 4D effective field theory. This is achieved in a way compatible with the local presence of chirality. The hidden sector generating the non-perturbative effects is placed on a del Pezzo divisor that does not have any chiral intersections with any other brane. In general, the vanishing D-term condition implies the shrinking of the rigid divisor supporting the visible sector. However, we avoid this problem by generating r

  13. Relating structure and dynamics in organisation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.

    2003-01-01

    To understand how an organisational structure relates to dynamics is an interesting fundamental challenge in the area of social modelling. Specifications of organisational structure usually have a diagrammatic form that abstracts from more detailed dynamics. Dynamic properties of agent systems, on

  14. Stabilising the global greenhouse. A simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michaelis, P.

    1993-01-01

    This paper investigates the economic implications of a comprehensive approach to greenhouse policies that strives to stabilise the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases at an ecolocially determined threshold level. In a theoretical optimisation model conditions for an efficient allocation of abatement effort among pollutants and over time are derived. The model is empirically specified and adapted to a dynamic Gams-algorithm. By various simulation runs for the period of 1990 to 2110, the economics of greenhouse gas accumulation are explored. In particular, the long-run cost associated with the above stabilisation target are evaluated for three different policy scenarios: i) A comprehensive approach that covers all major greenhouse gases simultaneously, ii) a piecemeal approach that is limited to reducing CO 2 emissions, and iii) a ten-year moratorium that postpones abatement effort until new scientific evidence on the greenhouse effect will become available. Comparing the simulation results suggests that a piecemeal approach would considerably increase total cost, whereas a ten-year moratorium might be reasonable even if the probability of 'good news' is comparatively small. (orig.)

  15. Top-down constraints on disturbance dynamics in the terrestrial carbon cycle: effects at global and regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloom, A. A.; Exbrayat, J. F.; van der Velde, I.; Peters, W.; Williams, M.

    2014-12-01

    Large uncertainties preside over terrestrial carbon flux estimates on a global scale. In particular, the strongly coupled dynamics between net ecosystem productivity and disturbance C losses are poorly constrained. To gain an improved understanding of ecosystem C dynamics from regional to global scale, we apply a Markov Chain Monte Carlo based model-data-fusion approach into the CArbon DAta-MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM). We assimilate MODIS LAI and burned area, plant-trait data, and use the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) and maps of above ground biomass as prior knowledge for initial conditions. We optimize model parameters based on (a) globally spanning observations and (b) ecological and dynamic constraints that force single parameter values and parameter inter-dependencies to be representative of real world processes. We determine the spatial and temporal dynamics of major terrestrial C fluxes and model parameter values on a global scale (GPP = 123 +/- 8 Pg C yr-1 & NEE = -1.8 +/- 2.7 Pg C yr-1). We further show that the incorporation of disturbance fluxes, and accounting for their instantaneous or delayed effect, is of critical importance in constraining global C cycle dynamics, particularly in the tropics. In a higher resolution case study centred on the Amazon Basin we show how fires not only trigger large instantaneous emissions of burned matter, but also how they are responsible for a sustained reduction of up to 50% in plant uptake following the depletion of biomass stocks. The combination of these two fire-induced effects leads to a 1 g C m-2 d-1reduction in the strength of the net terrestrial carbon sink. Through our simulations at regional and global scale, we advocate the need to assimilate disturbance metrics in global terrestrial carbon cycle models to bridge the gap between globally spanning terrestrial carbon cycle data and the full dynamics of the ecosystem C cycle. Disturbances are especially important because their quick occurrence may have

  16. Modeling selective pressures on phytoplankton in the global ocean.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason G Bragg

    Full Text Available Our view of marine microbes is transforming, as culture-independent methods facilitate rapid characterization of microbial diversity. It is difficult to assimilate this information into our understanding of marine microbe ecology and evolution, because their distributions, traits, and genomes are shaped by forces that are complex and dynamic. Here we incorporate diverse forces--physical, biogeochemical, ecological, and mutational--into a global ocean model to study selective pressures on a simple trait in a widely distributed lineage of picophytoplankton: the nitrogen use abilities of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. Some Prochlorococcus ecotypes have lost the ability to use nitrate, whereas their close relatives, marine Synechococcus, typically retain it. We impose mutations for the loss of nitrogen use abilities in modeled picophytoplankton, and ask: in which parts of the ocean are mutants most disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate, and in which parts are they least disadvantaged? Our model predicts that this selective disadvantage is smallest for picophytoplankton that live in tropical regions where Prochlorococcus are abundant in the real ocean. Conversely, the selective disadvantage of losing the ability to use nitrate is larger for modeled picophytoplankton that live at higher latitudes, where Synechococcus are abundant. In regions where we expect Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations to cycle seasonally in the real ocean, we find that model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Prochlorococcus are less disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate than model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Synechococcus. The model predictions for the selective advantage associated with nitrate use are broadly consistent with the distribution of this ability among marine picocyanobacteria, and at finer scales, can provide insights into interactions between temporally varying

  17. Modeling selective pressures on phytoplankton in the global ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bragg, Jason G; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Jahn, Oliver; Follows, Michael J; Chisholm, Sallie W

    2010-03-10

    Our view of marine microbes is transforming, as culture-independent methods facilitate rapid characterization of microbial diversity. It is difficult to assimilate this information into our understanding of marine microbe ecology and evolution, because their distributions, traits, and genomes are shaped by forces that are complex and dynamic. Here we incorporate diverse forces--physical, biogeochemical, ecological, and mutational--into a global ocean model to study selective pressures on a simple trait in a widely distributed lineage of picophytoplankton: the nitrogen use abilities of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. Some Prochlorococcus ecotypes have lost the ability to use nitrate, whereas their close relatives, marine Synechococcus, typically retain it. We impose mutations for the loss of nitrogen use abilities in modeled picophytoplankton, and ask: in which parts of the ocean are mutants most disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate, and in which parts are they least disadvantaged? Our model predicts that this selective disadvantage is smallest for picophytoplankton that live in tropical regions where Prochlorococcus are abundant in the real ocean. Conversely, the selective disadvantage of losing the ability to use nitrate is larger for modeled picophytoplankton that live at higher latitudes, where Synechococcus are abundant. In regions where we expect Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations to cycle seasonally in the real ocean, we find that model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Prochlorococcus are less disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate than model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Synechococcus. The model predictions for the selective advantage associated with nitrate use are broadly consistent with the distribution of this ability among marine picocyanobacteria, and at finer scales, can provide insights into interactions between temporally varying ocean processes and

  18. A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Richard; Prestele, Reinhard; Verburg, Peter H.

    2018-05-01

    The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country), plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, which feeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth system models. Global empirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has been indicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net land change dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30-100 m) remote sensing products to create a new global gross and net change dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the results of future simulation models by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net change that is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5° grid cells was substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5° grid cells are a standard resolution of Earth system models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, which assumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of gross land changes led to approximately 50 % more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross land changes were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming, and agro-forestry systems). Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization and intensification of land use. Our results serve as an empirical database for

  19. Recent human history governs global ant invasion dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleo Bertelsmeier; Sébastien Ollier; Andrew Liebhold; Laurent Keller

    2017-01-01

    Human trade and travel are breaking down biogeographic barriers, resulting in shifts in the geographical distribution of organisms, yet it remains largely unknown whether different alien species generally follow similar spatiotemporal colonization patterns and how such patterns are driven by trends in global trade. Here, we analyse the global distribution of 241 alien...

  20. Does global sourcing pay-off? A competitive dynamics perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, Frederik Guido Sebastiaan; Scheffler, Paul; Schiele, Holger; Horn, Philipp

    2016-01-01

    The supposed benefits of global sourcing in supply chain management remain subject to debate. Here this study investigates the potential benefits of global sourcing using a large dataset obtained from a leading European automotive original equipment manufacturer, spanning a period of five years.

  1. An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paeth, Heiko; Li, Jingmin; Pollinger, Felix; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Pohlmann, Holger; Feldmann, Hendrik; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen

    2018-04-01

    Initialized decadal climate predictions with coupled climate models are often marked by substantial climate drifts that emanate from a mismatch between the climatology of the coupled model system and the data set used for initialization. While such drifts may be easily removed from the prediction system when analyzing individual variables, a major problem prevails for multivariate issues and, especially, when the output of the global prediction system shall be used for dynamical downscaling. In this study, we present a statistical approach to remove climate drifts in a multivariate context and demonstrate the effect of this drift correction on regional climate model simulations over the Euro-Atlantic sector. The statistical approach is based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis adapted to a very large data matrix. The climate drift emerges as a dramatic cooling trend in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and is captured by the leading EOF of the multivariate output from the global prediction system, accounting for 7.7% of total variability. The SST cooling pattern also imposes drifts in various atmospheric variables and levels. The removal of the first EOF effectuates the drift correction while retaining other components of intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variability. In the regional climate model, the multivariate drift correction of the input data removes the cooling trends in most western European land regions and systematically reduces the discrepancy between the output of the regional climate model and observational data. In contrast, removing the drift only in the SST field from the global model has hardly any positive effect on the regional climate model.

  2. Mutual and asynchronous anticipation and action in sports as globally competitive and locally coordinative dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujii, Keisuke; Isaka, Tadao; Kouzaki, Motoki; Yamamoto, Yuji

    2015-11-01

    Humans interact by changing their actions, perceiving other’s actions and executing solutions in conflicting situations. Using oscillator models, nonlinear dynamics have been considered for describing these complex human movements as an emergence of self-organisation. However, these frameworks cannot explain the hierarchical structures of complex behaviours between conflicting inter-agent and adapting intra-agent systems, especially in sport competitions wherein mutually quick decision making and execution are required. Here we adopt a hybrid multiscale approach to model an attack-and-defend game during which both players predict the opponent’s movement and move with a delay. From both simulated and measured data, one synchronous outcome between two-agent (i.e. successful defence) can be described as one attractor. In contrast, the other coordination-breaking outcome (i.e. successful attack) cannot be explained using gradient dynamics because the asymmetric interaction cannot always assume a conserved physical quantity. Instead, we provide the asymmetric and asynchronous hierarchical dynamical models to discuss two-agent competition. Our framework suggests that possessing information about an opponent and oneself in local-coordinative and global-competitive scale enables us to gain a deeper understanding of sports competitions. We anticipate developments in the scientific fields of complex movement adapting to such uncontrolled environments.

  3. The READY program: Building a global potential energy surface and reactive dynamic simulations for the hydrogen combustion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogo, César; Brandão, João

    2014-06-30

    READY (REActive DYnamics) is a program for studying reactive dynamic systems using a global potential energy surface (PES) built from previously existing PESs corresponding to each of the most important elementary reactions present in the system. We present an application to the combustion dynamics of a mixture of hydrogen and oxygen using accurate PESs for all the systems involving up to four oxygen and hydrogen atoms. Results at the temperature of 4000 K and pressure of 2 atm are presented and compared with model based on rate constants. Drawbacks and advantages of this approach are discussed and future directions of research are pointed out. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Global plastic models for computerized structural analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roche, R.; Hoffmann, A.

    1977-01-01

    Two different global models are used in the CEASEMT system for structural analysis, one for the shells analysis and the other for piping analysis (in plastic or creep field). In shell analysis the generalized stresses choosed are the membrane forces Nsub(ij) and bending (including torsion) moments Msub(ij). There is only one yield condition for a normal (to the middle surface) and no integration along the thickness is required. In piping analysis, the choice of generalized stresses is: bending moments, torsional moments, Hoop stress and tension stress. There is only a set of stresses for a cross section and non integration over the cross section area is needed. Connected strains are axis curvature, torsion, uniform strains. The definition of the yield surface is the most important item. A practical way is to use a diagonal quadratic fonction of the stress components. But the coefficients are depending of the shape of the pipe element, especially for curved segments. Indications will be given on the yield fonctions used. Some examples of applications in structural analysis are added to the text [fr

  5. Global variables and the dynamics or relativistic nucleus-nucleus collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cugnon, J.; L'Hote, D.

    1983-01-01

    Various global variables providing a simple description of high multiplicity events are reviewed. Many of them are calculated in the framework of an intra-nuclear cascade model, which describes the collision process as a series of binary on-shell relativistic baryon-baryon collisions and which includes inelasticity through the production of δ-resonances. The calculations are first made for the Ar+KCl system at 0.8 GeV/A, with global variables including either all the nucleons or only the participant nucleons. The shape and the orientation of the ellipsoid of sphericity are particularly investigated. For both cases, on the average, the large axis of the ellipsoid is found to point in the beam direction. This result is discussed in comparison with hydrodynamics predictions and in relation with the mean free path. A kind of small 'bounce-off effect' is detected for intermediate impact parameters. The possibility of extracting the value of the impact parameter b from the value of a global variable is shown to depend upon the variation of this variable with b and upon the fluctuation of the global variable for a given impact parameter. A quality factor is defined to quantify this possibility. No current global variable seems to be more appropriate than the number of participant nucleons for the impact parameter selection. The physical origin of the fluctuations inside the intranuclear cascade model is discussed and the possibility of extracting useful information on the dynamics of the system from the fluctuations is pointed out. The energy dependence of our results is discussed. Some results of the calculations at 250 and 400 MeV/A are also presented for the same system Ar+KCl. (orig.)

  6. Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xia; Gao, Qiong; Peng, Changhui; Cui, Xuefeng; Liu, Yinghui; Jiang, Li

    2014-03-01

    With rapid economic development and urbanization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model (GLOBFOOD) and regional spatial allocation model (CLUE). The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socioeconomic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

  7. Spatially explicit modeling of particulate nutrient flux in Large global rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, S.; Kettner, A.; Mayorga, E.; Harrison, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    Water, sediment, nutrient and carbon fluxes along river networks have undergone considerable alterations in response to anthropogenic and climatic changes, with significant consequences to infrastructure, agriculture, water security, ecology and geomorphology worldwide. However, in a global setting, these changes in fluvial fluxes and their spatial and temporal characteristics are poorly constrained, due to the limited availability of continuous and long-term observations. We present results from a new global-scale particulate modeling framework (WBMsedNEWS) that combines the Global NEWS watershed nutrient export model with the spatially distributed WBMsed water and sediment model. We compare the model predictions against multiple observational datasets. The results indicate that the model is able to accurately predict particulate nutrient (Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Organic Carbon) fluxes on an annual time scale. Analysis of intra-basin nutrient dynamics and fluxes to global oceans is presented.

  8. Global Information Enterprise (GIE) Modeling and Simulation (GIESIM)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bell, Paul

    2005-01-01

    ... AND S) toolkits into the Global Information Enterprise (GIE) Modeling and Simulation (GIESim) framework to create effective user analysis of candidate communications architectures and technologies...

  9. Global analyses of historical masonry buildings: Equivalent frame vs. 3D solid models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clementi, Francesco; Mezzapelle, Pardo Antonio; Cocchi, Gianmichele; Lenci, Stefano

    2017-07-01

    The paper analyses the seismic vulnerability of two different masonry buildings. It provides both an advanced 3D modelling with solid elements and an equivalent frame modelling. The global structural behaviour and the dynamic properties of the compound have been evaluated using the Finite Element Modelling (FEM) technique, where the nonlinear behaviour of masonry has been taken into account by proper constitutive assumptions. A sensitivity analysis is done to evaluate the effect of the choice of the structural models.

  10. eWaterCycle: A global operational hydrological forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Donchyts, Gennadii; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2015-04-01

    Development of an operational hyper-resolution hydrological global model is a central goal of the eWaterCycle project (www.ewatercycle.org). This operational model includes ensemble forecasts (14 days) to predict water related stress around the globe. Assimilation of near-real time satellite data is part of the intended product that will be launched at EGU 2015. The challenges come from several directions. First, there are challenges that are mainly computer science oriented but have direct practical hydrological implications. For example, we aim to make use as much as possible of existing standards and open-source software. For example, different parts of our system are coupled through the Basic Model Interface (BMI) developed in the framework of the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS). The PCR-GLOBWB model, built by Utrecht University, is the basic hydrological model that is the engine of the eWaterCycle project. Re-engineering of parts of the software was needed for it to run efficiently in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment, and to be able to interface using BMI, and run on multiple compute nodes in parallel. The final aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km, which is currently 10 x 10km. This high resolution is computationally not too demanding but very memory intensive. The memory bottleneck becomes especially apparent for data assimilation, for which we use OpenDA. OpenDa allows for different data assimilation techniques without the need to build these from scratch. We have developed a BMI adaptor for OpenDA, allowing OpenDA to use any BMI compatible model. To circumvent memory shortages which would result from standard applications of the Ensemble Kalman Filter, we have developed a variant that does not need to keep all ensemble members in working memory. At EGU, we will present this variant and how it fits well in HPC environments. An important step in the eWaterCycle project was the coupling between the hydrological and

  11. Dynamics on networks: the role of local dynamics and global networks on the emergence of hypersynchronous neural activity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helmut Schmidt

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Graph theory has evolved into a useful tool for studying complex brain networks inferred from a variety of measures of neural activity, including fMRI, DTI, MEG and EEG. In the study of neurological disorders, recent work has discovered differences in the structure of graphs inferred from patient and control cohorts. However, most of these studies pursue a purely observational approach; identifying correlations between properties of graphs and the cohort which they describe, without consideration of the underlying mechanisms. To move beyond this necessitates the development of computational modeling approaches to appropriately interpret network interactions and the alterations in brain dynamics they permit, which in the field of complexity sciences is known as dynamics on networks. In this study we describe the development and application of this framework using modular networks of Kuramoto oscillators. We use this framework to understand functional networks inferred from resting state EEG recordings of a cohort of 35 adults with heterogeneous idiopathic generalized epilepsies and 40 healthy adult controls. Taking emergent synchrony across the global network as a proxy for seizures, our study finds that the critical strength of coupling required to synchronize the global network is significantly decreased for the epilepsy cohort for functional networks inferred from both theta (3-6 Hz and low-alpha (6-9 Hz bands. We further identify left frontal regions as a potential driver of seizure activity within these networks. We also explore the ability of our method to identify individuals with epilepsy, observing up to 80% predictive power through use of receiver operating characteristic analysis. Collectively these findings demonstrate that a computer model based analysis of routine clinical EEG provides significant additional information beyond standard clinical interpretation, which should ultimately enable a more appropriate mechanistic

  12. Dynamic modelling of nuclear steam generators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kerlin, T.W.; Katz, E.M.; Freels, J.; Thakkar, J.

    1980-01-01

    Moving boundary, nodal models with dynamic energy balances, dynamic mass balances, quasi-static momentum balances, and an equivalent single channel approach have been developed for steam generators used in nuclear power plants. The model for the U-tube recirculation type steam generator is described and comparisons are made of responses from models of different complexity; non-linear versus linear, high-order versus low order, detailed modeling of the control system versus a simple control assumption. The results of dynamic tests on nuclear power systems show that when this steam generator model is included in a system simulation there is good agreement with actual plant performance. (author)

  13. Dynamic Airspace Managment - Models and Algorithms

    OpenAIRE

    Cheng, Peng; Geng, Rui

    2010-01-01

    This chapter investigates the models and algorithms for implementing the concept of Dynamic Airspace Management. Three models are discussed. First two models are about how to use or adjust air route dynamically in order to speed up air traffic flow and reduce delay. The third model gives a way to dynamically generate the optimal sector configuration for an air traffic control center to both balance the controller’s workload and save control resources. The first model, called the Dynami...

  14. SEP modeling based on global heliospheric models at the CCMC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mays, M. L.; Luhmann, J. G.; Odstrcil, D.; Bain, H. M.; Schwadron, N.; Gorby, M.; Li, Y.; Lee, K.; Zeitlin, C.; Jian, L. K.; Lee, C. O.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Galvin, A. B.

    2017-12-01

    Heliospheric models provide contextual information of conditions in the heliosphere, including the background solar wind conditions and shock structures, and are used as input to SEP models, providing an essential tool for understanding SEP properties. The global 3D MHD WSA-ENLIL+Cone model provides a time-dependent background heliospheric description, into which a spherical shaped hydrodynamic CME can be inserted. ENLIL simulates solar wind parameters and additionally one can extract the magnetic topologies of observer-connected magnetic field lines and all plasma and shock properties along those field lines. An accurate representation of the background solar wind is necessary for simulating transients. ENLIL simulations also drive SEP models such as the Solar Energetic Particle Model (SEPMOD) (Luhmann et al. 2007, 2010) and the Energetic Particle Radiation Environment Module (EPREM) (Schwadron et al. 2010). The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is in the process of making these SEP models available to the community and offering a system to run SEP models driven by a variety of heliospheric models available at CCMC. SEPMOD injects protons onto a sequence of observer field lines at intensities dependent on the connected shock source strength which are then integrated at the observer to approximate the proton flux. EPREM couples with MHD models such as ENLIL and computes energetic particle distributions based on the focused transport equation along a Lagrangian grid of nodes that propagate out with the solar wind. The coupled SEP models allow us to derive the longitudinal distribution of SEP profiles of different types of events throughout the heliosphere. The coupled ENLIL and SEP models allow us to derive the longitudinal distribution of SEP profiles of different types of events throughout the heliosphere. In this presentation we demonstrate several case studies of SEP event modeling at different observers based on WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations.

  15. Wind Farm Decentralized Dynamic Modeling With Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soltani, Mohsen; Shakeri, Sayyed Mojtaba; Grunnet, Jacob Deleuran

    2010-01-01

    Development of dynamic wind flow models for wind farms is part of the research in European research FP7 project AEOLUS. The objective of this report is to provide decentralized dynamic wind flow models with parameters. The report presents a structure for decentralized flow models with inputs from...... local models. The results of this report are especially useful, but not limited, to design a decentralized wind farm controller, since in centralized controller design one can also use the model and update it in a central computing node.......Development of dynamic wind flow models for wind farms is part of the research in European research FP7 project AEOLUS. The objective of this report is to provide decentralized dynamic wind flow models with parameters. The report presents a structure for decentralized flow models with inputs from...

  16. Globalization and Shanghai Model: A Retrospective and Prospective Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linsun Cheng

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Intended to shed light on the debate on the results of globalization and providebetter understanding of the influences of globalization upon China as well as theworld, this article traces the history of Shanghai’s economic globalization over thepast 170 years since 1843 and demonstrates the benefits and problems Shanghaireceived from (or connected to its economic globalization. Divided into threesections (Globalization, de-globalization and re-globalization of Shanghai’s economy;Manufacturing-Oriented vs. Tertiary-oriented—Shanghai’s Double PriorityStrategy of Economic Growth; Free market, state enterprises, and Shanghai’s mixedeconomy the article summarizes and analyzes several characteristics that madeShanghai a unique model in the history of globalization: In adapting and adoptinginevitable economic globalization, Shanghai created its unique model of economicdevelopment—widely embracing economic globalization; placing Shanghai’seconomy on a solid foundation of both strong modern manufacturing and strongtertiary industry (consisting of finance and insurance, real estate, transportations,post and telecommunication, wholesale and retailing; and creating a mixedeconomic structure with hybrid of private and state owned enterprises. TheShanghai model proves that globalization has been an unavoidable trend as scienceand technology have made the world “smaller” and “smaller.” Actively engaging intoeconomic globalization is the only way for Shanghai, as well as many developingcountries, to accelerate its economic growth.

  17. System dynamics modelling of situation awareness

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Oosthuizen, R

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available . The feedback loops and delays in the Command and Control system also contribute to the complex dynamic behavior. This paper will build on existing situation awareness models to develop a System Dynamics model to support a qualitative investigation through...

  18. An integrated model of soil, hydrology, and vegetation for carbon dynamics in wetland ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu Zhang; Changsheng Li; Carl C. Trettin; Harbin Li; Ge Sun

    2002-01-01

    Wetland ecosystems are an important component in global carbon (C) cycles and may exert a large influence on global clinlate change. Predictions of C dynamics require us to consider interactions among many critical factors of soil, hydrology, and vegetation. However, few such integrated C models exist for wetland ecosystems. In this paper, we report a simulation model...

  19. An Agent Model Integrating an Adaptive Model for Environmental Dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Treur, J.; Umair, M.

    2011-01-01

    The environments in which agents are used often may be described by dynamical models, e.g., in the form of a set of differential equations. In this paper, an agent model is proposed that can perform model-based reasoning about the environment, based on a numerical (dynamical system) model of the

  20. NASA 3D Models: Global Hawk

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The ability of the Global Hawk air vehicle to autonomously fly long distances and remain aloft for extended periods of time means that measuring, monitoring, and...

  1. AFSC/ABL: Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC) fish and oceanography data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Understanding the processes that regulate early marine survival of salmon is a major goal of the Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC) Northeast Pacific (NEP)...

  2. Hydration dynamics near a model protein surface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russo, Daniela; Hura, Greg; Head-Gordon, Teresa

    2003-01-01

    The evolution of water dynamics from dilute to very high concentration solutions of a prototypical hydrophobic amino acid with its polar backbone, N-acetyl-leucine-methylamide (NALMA), is studied by quasi-elastic neutron scattering and molecular dynamics simulation for both the completely deuterated and completely hydrogenated leucine monomer. We observe several unexpected features in the dynamics of these biological solutions under ambient conditions. The NALMA dynamics shows evidence of de Gennes narrowing, an indication of coherent long timescale structural relaxation dynamics. The translational water dynamics are analyzed in a first approximation with a jump diffusion model. At the highest solute concentrations, the hydration water dynamics is significantly suppressed and characterized by a long residential time and a slow diffusion coefficient. The analysis of the more dilute concentration solutions takes into account the results of the 2.0M solution as a model of the first hydration shell. Subtracting the first hydration layer based on the 2.0M spectra, the translational diffusion dynamics is still suppressed, although the rotational relaxation time and residential time are converged to bulk-water values. Molecular dynamics analysis shows spatially heterogeneous dynamics at high concentration that becomes homogeneous at more dilute concentrations. We discuss the hydration dynamics results of this model protein system in the context of glassy systems, protein function, and protein-protein interfaces

  3. Global Crustal Dynamics of Magnetars in Relation to Their Bright X-Ray Outbursts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thompson, Christopher [Canadian Institute for Theoretical Astrophysics, 60 St. George Street, Toronto, ON M5S 3H8 (Canada); Yang, Huan; Ortiz, Néstor [Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics, Waterloo, ON N2L 2Y5 (Canada)

    2017-05-20

    This paper considers the yielding response of a neutron star crust to smooth, unbalanced Maxwell stresses imposed at the core–crust boundary, and the coupling of the dynamic crust to the external magnetic field. Stress buildup and yielding in a magnetar crust are global phenomena: an elastic distortion radiating from one plastically deforming zone is shown to dramatically increase the creep rate in distant zones. Runaway creep to dynamical rates is shown to be possible, being enhanced by in situ heating and suppressed by thermal conduction and shearing of an embedded magnetic field. A global and time-dependent model of elastic, plastic, magnetic, and thermal evolution is developed. Fault-like structures develop naturally, and a range of outburst timescales is observed. Transient events with time profiles similar to giant magnetar flares (millisecond rise, ∼0.1 s duration, and decaying power-law tails) result from runaway creep that starts in localized sub-kilometer-sized patches and spreads across the crust. A one-dimensional model of stress relaxation in the vertically stratified crust shows that a modest increase in applied stress allows embedded magnetic shear to escape the star over ∼3–10 ms, dissipating greater energy if the exterior field is already sheared. Several such zones coupled to each other naturally yield a burst of duration ∼0.1 s, as is observed over a wide range of burst energies. The collective interaction of many plastic zones forces an overstability of global elastic modes of the crust, consistent with quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) activity extending over ∼100 s. Giant flares probably involve sudden meltdown in localized zones, with high-frequency (≫100 Hz) QPOs corresponding to standing Alfvén waves within these zones.

  4. Challenges and Opportunities in Modeling of the Global Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janjic, Zavisa; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Vasic, Ratko

    2016-04-01

    are comparable to the scales of the dominant Rossby waves, such fictitious solutions are hard to identify and remove. Another new challenge on the global scale is that the limit of validity of the hydrostatic approximation is rapidly being approached. Relaxing the hydrostatic approximation requieres careful reformulation of the model dynamics and more computations and communications. The unified Non-hydrostatic Multi-scale Model (NMMB) will be briefly discussed as an example. The non-hydrostatic dynamics were designed in such a way as to avoid over-specification. The global version is run on the latitude-longitude grid, and the polar filter selectively slows down the waves that would otherwise be unstable without modifying their amplitudes. The model has been successfully tested on various scales. The skill of the medium range forecasts produced by the NMMB is comparable to that of other major medium range models, and its computational efficiency on parallel computers is good.

  5. Simplifiying global biogeochemistry models to evaluate methane emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, S.; Alonso-Contes, C.

    2017-12-01

    Process-based models are important tools to quantify wetland methane emissions, particularly also under climate change scenarios, evaluating these models is often cumbersome as they are embedded in larger land-surface models where fluctuating water table and the carbon cycle (including new readily decomposable plant material) are predicted variables. Here, we build on these large scale models but instead of modeling water table and plant productivity we provide values as boundary conditions. In contrast, aerobic and anaerobic decomposition, as well as soil column transport of oxygen and methane are predicted by the model. Because of these simplifications, the model has the potential to be more readily adaptable to the analysis of field-scale data. Here we determine the sensitivity of the model to specific setups, parameter choices, and to boundary conditions in order to determine set-up needs and inform what critical auxiliary variables need to be measured in order to better predict field-scale methane emissions from wetland soils. To that end we performed a global sensitivity analysis that also considers non-linear interactions between processes. The global sensitivity analysis revealed, not surprisingly, that water table dynamics (both mean level and amplitude of fluctuations), and the rate of the carbon cycle (i.e. net primary productivity) are critical determinants of methane emissions. The depth-scale where most of the potential decomposition occurs also affects methane emissions. Different transport mechanisms are compensating each other to some degree: If plant conduits are constrained, methane emissions by diffusive flux and ebullition compensate to some degree, however annual emissions are higher when plants help to bypass methanotrophs in temporally unsaturated upper layers. Finally, while oxygen consumption by plant roots help creating anoxic conditions it has little effect on overall methane emission. Our initial sensitivity analysis helps guiding

  6. Forecasting house prices in the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Møller, Stig Vinther

    2015-01-01

    We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves substantia......We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves...

  7. Modeling of reservoir operation in UNH global hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiklomanov, Alexander; Prusevich, Alexander; Frolking, Steve; Glidden, Stanley; Lammers, Richard; Wisser, Dominik

    2015-04-01

    Climate is changing and river flow is an integrated characteristic reflecting numerous environmental processes and their changes aggregated over large areas. Anthropogenic impacts on the river flow, however, can significantly exceed the changes associated with climate variability. Besides of irrigation, reservoirs and dams are one of major anthropogenic factor affecting streamflow. They distort hydrological regime of many rivers by trapping of freshwater runoff, modifying timing of river discharge and increasing the evaporation rate. Thus, reservoirs is an integral part of the global hydrological system and their impacts on rivers have to be taken into account for better quantification and understanding of hydrological changes. We developed a new technique, which was incorporated into WBM-TrANS model (Water Balance Model-Transport from Anthropogenic and Natural Systems) to simulate river routing through large reservoirs and natural lakes based on information available from freely accessible databases such as GRanD (the Global Reservoir and Dam database) or NID (National Inventory of Dams for US). Different formulations were applied for unregulated spillway dams and lakes, and for 4 types of regulated reservoirs, which were subdivided based on main purpose including generic (multipurpose), hydropower generation, irrigation and water supply, and flood control. We also incorporated rules for reservoir fill up and draining at the times of construction and decommission based on available data. The model were tested for many reservoirs of different size and types located in various climatic conditions using several gridded meteorological data sets as model input and observed daily and monthly discharge data from GRDC (Global Runoff Data Center), USGS Water Data (US Geological Survey), and UNH archives. The best results with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient in the range of 0.5-0.9 were obtained for temperate zone of Northern Hemisphere where most of large

  8. Global network reorganization during dynamic adaptations of Bacillus subtilis metabolism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buescher, Joerg Martin; Liebermeister, Wolfram; Jules, Matthieu

    2012-01-01

    Adaptation of cells to environmental changes requires dynamic interactions between metabolic and regulatory networks, but studies typically address only one or a few layers of regulation. For nutritional shifts between two preferred carbon sources of Bacillus subtilis, we combined statistical...

  9. Modelling stratospheric chemistry in a global three-dimensional chemical transport model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rummukainen, M [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Sodankylae (Finland). Sodankylae Observatory

    1996-12-31

    Numerical modelling of atmospheric chemistry aims to increase the understanding of the characteristics, the behavior and the evolution of atmospheric composition. These topics are of utmost importance in the study of climate change. The multitude of gases and particulates making up the atmosphere and the complicated interactions between them affect radiation transfer, atmospheric dynamics, and the impacts of anthropogenic and natural emissions. Chemical processes are fundamental factors in global warming, ozone depletion and atmospheric pollution problems in general. Much of the prevailing work on modelling stratospheric chemistry has so far been done with 1- and 2-dimensional models. Carrying an extensive chemistry parameterisation in a model with high spatial and temporal resolution is computationally heavy. Today, computers are becoming powerful enough to allow going over to 3-dimensional models. In order to concentrate on the chemistry, many Chemical Transport Models (CTM) are still run off-line, i.e. with precalculated and archived meteorology and radiation. In chemistry simulations, the archived values drive the model forward in time, without interacting with the chemical evolution. This is an approach that has been adopted in stratospheric chemistry modelling studies at the Finnish Meteorological Institute. In collaboration with the University of Oslo, a development project was initiated in 1993 to prepare a stratospheric chemistry parameterisation, fit for global 3-dimensional modelling. This article presents the parameterisation approach. Selected results are shown from basic photochemical simulations

  10. Modelling stratospheric chemistry in a global three-dimensional chemical transport model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rummukainen, M. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Sodankylae (Finland). Sodankylae Observatory

    1995-12-31

    Numerical modelling of atmospheric chemistry aims to increase the understanding of the characteristics, the behavior and the evolution of atmospheric composition. These topics are of utmost importance in the study of climate change. The multitude of gases and particulates making up the atmosphere and the complicated interactions between them affect radiation transfer, atmospheric dynamics, and the impacts of anthropogenic and natural emissions. Chemical processes are fundamental factors in global warming, ozone depletion and atmospheric pollution problems in general. Much of the prevailing work on modelling stratospheric chemistry has so far been done with 1- and 2-dimensional models. Carrying an extensive chemistry parameterisation in a model with high spatial and temporal resolution is computationally heavy. Today, computers are becoming powerful enough to allow going over to 3-dimensional models. In order to concentrate on the chemistry, many Chemical Transport Models (CTM) are still run off-line, i.e. with precalculated and archived meteorology and radiation. In chemistry simulations, the archived values drive the model forward in time, without interacting with the chemical evolution. This is an approach that has been adopted in stratospheric chemistry modelling studies at the Finnish Meteorological Institute. In collaboration with the University of Oslo, a development project was initiated in 1993 to prepare a stratospheric chemistry parameterisation, fit for global 3-dimensional modelling. This article presents the parameterisation approach. Selected results are shown from basic photochemical simulations

  11. The Globalization of Value chain activities, Knowledge dynamics, and Innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Park, Eunkyung

    Firms are increasingly relocating diverse activities in the value chain abroad to reap the locational advantage available in other countries. One of the issues raised in this context is that, as global operations can function as channels for knowledge flows, the involved firms and locations may...... of the involved regions and countries. The purpose of this thesis is to study these issues with a broad research question, “What implications does the globalization of value chain activities have on innovation in firms and locations?” Four articles and a case study included in the thesis present empirical results...... gain or lose knowledge associated with the activities that are being globalized. Since knowledge is a critical input for innovation, this has some implications for the capability of firms to create new products and services. At the macro level, it may have an influence on the competitiveness...

  12. Exploring the role of fire, succession, climate, and weather on landscape dynamics using comparative modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; Geoffrey J. Cary; Mike D. Flannigan; Russell A. Parsons; Ian D. Davies; Karen J. King; Chao Li; Ross A. Bradstock; Malcolm Gill

    2013-01-01

    An assessment of the relative importance of vegetation change and disturbance as agents of landscape change under current and future climates would (1) provide insight into the controls of landscape dynamics, (2) help inform the design and development of coarse scale spatially explicit ecosystem models such as Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), and (3) guide...

  13. Adaptive numerical modeling of dynamic crack propagation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adouani, H.; Tie, B.; Berdin, C.; Aubry, D.

    2006-01-01

    We propose an adaptive numerical strategy that aims at developing reliable and efficient numerical tools to model dynamic crack propagation and crack arrest. We use the cohesive zone theory as behavior of interface-type elements to model crack. Since the crack path is generally unknown beforehand, adaptive meshing is proposed to model the dynamic crack propagation. The dynamic study requires the development of specific solvers for time integration. As both geometry and finite element mesh of the studied structure evolve in time during transient analysis, the stability behavior of dynamic solver becomes a major concern. For this purpose, we use the space-time discontinuous Galerkin finite element method, well-known to provide a natural framework to manage meshes that evolve in time. As an important result, we prove that the space-time discontinuous Galerkin solver is unconditionally stable, when the dynamic crack propagation is modeled by the cohesive zone theory, which is highly non-linear. (authors)

  14. Ecology and equity in global fisheries: Modelling policy options using theoretical distributions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rammelt, C.F.; van Schie, Maarten

    2016-01-01

    Global fisheries present a typical case of political ecology or environmental injustice, i.e. a problem of distribution of resources within ecological limits. We built a stock-flow model to visualize this challenge and its dynamics, with both an ecological and a social dimension. We incorporated

  15. Global dynamics of a reaction-diffusion system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuncheng You

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available In this work the existence of a global attractor for the semiflow of weak solutions of a two-cell Brusselator system is proved. The method of grouping estimation is exploited to deal with the challenge in proving the absorbing property and the asymptotic compactness of this type of coupled reaction-diffusion systems with cubic autocatalytic nonlinearity and linear coupling. It is proved that the Hausdorff dimension and the fractal dimension of the global attractor are finite. Moreover, the existence of an exponential attractor for this solution semiflow is shown.

  16. Architecture design in global and model-centric software development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijstek, Werner

    2012-01-01

    This doctoral dissertation describes a series of empirical investigations into representation, dissemination and coordination of software architecture design in the context of global software development. A particular focus is placed on model-centric and model-driven software development.

  17. Dynamics in a nonlinear Keynesian good market model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naimzada, Ahmad; Pireddu, Marina

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we show how a rich variety of dynamical behaviors can emerge in the standard Keynesian income-expenditure model when a nonlinearity is introduced, both in the cases with and without endogenous government spending. A specific sigmoidal functional form is used for the adjustment mechanism of income with respect to the excess demand, in order to bound the income variation. With the aid of analytical and numerical tools, we investigate the stability conditions, bifurcations, as well as periodic and chaotic dynamics. Globally, we study multistability phenomena, i.e., the coexistence of different kinds of attractors

  18. Dynamical Analysis of SIR Epidemic Models with Distributed Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wencai Zhao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available SIR epidemic models with distributed delay are proposed. Firstly, the dynamical behaviors of the model without vaccination are studied. Using the Jacobian matrix, the stability of the equilibrium points of the system without vaccination is analyzed. The basic reproduction number R is got. In order to study the important role of vaccination to prevent diseases, the model with distributed delay under impulsive vaccination is formulated. And the sufficient conditions of globally asymptotic stability of “infection-free” periodic solution and the permanence of the model are obtained by using Floquet’s theorem, small-amplitude perturbation skills, and comparison theorem. Lastly, numerical simulation is presented to illustrate our main conclusions that vaccination has significant effects on the dynamical behaviors of the model. The results can provide effective tactic basis for the practical infectious disease prevention.

  19. Modeling biofuel expansion effects on land use change dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Warner, Ethan; Inman, Daniel; Kunstman, Benjamin; Bush, Brian; Vimmerstedt, Laura; Macknick, Jordan; Zhang Yimin; Peterson, Steve

    2013-01-01

    Increasing demand for crop-based biofuels, in addition to other human drivers of land use, induces direct and indirect land use changes (LUC). Our system dynamics tool is intended to complement existing LUC modeling approaches and to improve the understanding of global LUC drivers and dynamics by allowing examination of global LUC under diverse scenarios and varying model assumptions. We report on a small subset of such analyses. This model provides insights into the drivers and dynamic interactions of LUC (e.g., dietary choices and biofuel policy) and is not intended to assert improvement in numerical results relative to other works. Demand for food commodities are mostly met in high food and high crop-based biofuel demand scenarios, but cropland must expand substantially. Meeting roughly 25% of global transportation fuel demand by 2050 with biofuels requires >2 times the land used to meet food demands under a presumed 40% increase in per capita food demand. In comparison, the high food demand scenario requires greater pastureland for meat production, leading to larger overall expansion into forest and grassland. Our results indicate that, in all scenarios, there is a potential for supply shortfalls, and associated upward pressure on prices, of food commodities requiring higher land use intensity (e.g., beef) which biofuels could exacerbate. (letter)

  20. Modeling Gas Dynamics in California Sea Lions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    W. and Fahlman, A. (2009). Could beaked whales get the bends?. Effect of diving behaviour and physiology on modelled gas exchange for three species...1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Modeling Gas Dynamics in California Sea Lions Andreas...to update a current gas dynamics model with recently acquired data for respiratory compliance (P-V), and body compartment size estimates in

  1. A Dynamic Model of Sustainment Investment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-01

    Sustainment System Dynamics Model 11 Figure 7: Core Structure of Sustainment Work 12 Figure 8: Bandwagon Effect Loop 13 Figure 9: Limits to Growth Loop 14...Dynamics Model sustainment capacity sustainment performance gap Bandwagon Effect R1 Limits to Growth B1 S Work Smarter B3 Work Bigger B2 desired...which is of concern primarily when using the model as a vehicle for research. Figure 8 depicts a reinforcing loop called the “ Bandwagon Effect

  2. Modeling the Dynamic Digestive System Microbiome†

    OpenAIRE

    Estes, Anne M.

    2015-01-01

    Modeling the Dynamic Digestive System Microbiome” is a hands-on activity designed to demonstrate the dynamics of microbiome ecology using dried pasta and beans to model disturbance events in the human digestive system microbiome. This exercise demonstrates how microbiome diversity is influenced by: 1) niche availability and habitat space and 2) a major disturbance event, such as antibiotic use. Students use a pictorial key to examine prepared models of digestive system microbiomes to determi...

  3. Nonlinear dynamics of avian influenza epidemic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Sanhong; Ruan, Shigui; Zhang, Xinan

    2017-01-01

    Avian influenza is a zoonotic disease caused by the transmission of the avian influenza A virus, such as H5N1 and H7N9, from birds to humans. The avian influenza A H5N1 virus has caused more than 500 human infections worldwide with nearly a 60% death rate since it was first reported in Hong Kong in 1997. The four outbreaks of the avian influenza A H7N9 in China from March 2013 to June 2016 have resulted in 580 human cases including 202 deaths with a death rate of nearly 35%. In this paper, we construct two avian influenza bird-to-human transmission models with different growth laws of the avian population, one with logistic growth and the other with Allee effect, and analyze their dynamical behavior. We obtain a threshold value for the prevalence of avian influenza and investigate the local or global asymptotical stability of each equilibrium of these systems by using linear analysis technique or combining Liapunov function method and LaSalle's invariance principle, respectively. Moreover, we give necessary and sufficient conditions for the occurrence of periodic solutions in the avian influenza system with Allee effect of the avian population. Numerical simulations are also presented to illustrate the theoretical results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Global Stability in Dynamical Systems with Multiple Feedback Mechanisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Morten; Vinther, Frank; Ottesen, Johnny T.

    2016-01-01

    A class of n-dimensional ODEs with up to n feedbacks from the n’th variable is analysed. The feedbacks are represented by non-specific, bounded, non-negative C1 functions. The main result is the formulation and proof of an easily applicable criterion for existence of a globally stable fixed point...

  5. Global Dynamics of Dispersal and Diversification among Passerine Birds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kennedy, Jonathan David

    Global variation in the distribution and diversity of species has been recognized by naturalists for centuries. However, despite extensive scientific study since the initial documentation of these patterns, we still lack a comprehensive explanation as to their underlying causes. Ultimately, this ...

  6. Global monitoring of dynamic information systems a case study in the international supply chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pruksasri, P.; Berg, J. van den; Hofman, W.J.

    2014-01-01

    Global information systems are becoming more complex and dynamic everyday: huge amounts of data and messages through those systems show dynamically changing traffic patterns. Because of this, diagnosing when sub-systems are not working properly is difficult. System failures or errors in information

  7. Modeling the Global Workplace Using Emerging Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorazio, Patricia; Hickok, Corey

    2008-01-01

    The Fall 2006 term of COM495, Senior Practicum in Communication, offered communication and information design students the privilege of taking part in a transatlantic intercultural virtual project. To emulate real world experience in today's global workplace, these students researched and completed a business communication project with German…

  8. Modelling global container freight transport demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tavasszy, L.A.; Ivanova, O.; Halim, R.A.

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this chapter is to discuss methods and techniques for a quantitative and descriptive analysis of future container transport demand at a global level. Information on future container transport flows is useful for various purposes. It is instrumental for the assessment of returns of

  9. Global and Regional Ecosystem Modeling: Databases of Model Drivers and Validation Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olson, R.J.

    2002-03-19

    Understanding global-scale ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions is important both as a scientific question and as the basis for making policy decisions. The confidence in regional models depends on how well the field data used to develop the model represent the region of interest, how well the environmental model driving variables (e.g., vegetation type, climate, and soils associated with a site used to parameterize ecosystem models) represent the region of interest, and how well regional model predictions agree with observed data for the region. To assess the accuracy of global model forecasts of terrestrial carbon cycling, two Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) workshops were held (December 1999 and April 2001). The workshops included 17 biogeochemical, satellite-driven, detailed process, and dynamic vegetation global model types. The approach was to run regional or global versions of the models for sites with net primary productivity (NPP) measurements (i.e., not fine-tuned for specific site conditions) and analyze the model-data differences. Extensive worldwide NPP data were assembled with model driver data, including vegetation, climate, and soils data, to perform the intercomparison. This report describes the compilation of NPP estimates for 2,523 sites and 5,164 0.5{sup o}-grid cells under the Global Primary Production Data Initiative (GPPDI) and the results of the EMDI review and outlier analysis that produced a refined set of NPP estimates and model driver data. The EMDI process resulted in 81 Class A sites, 933 Class B sites, and 3,855 Class C cells derived from the original synthesis of NPP measurements and associated driver data. Class A sites represent well-documented study sites that have complete aboveground and below ground NPP measurements. Class B sites represent more numerous ''extensive'' sites with less documentation and site-specific information available. Class C cells represent estimates of

  10. Global sensitivity analysis of bogie dynamics with respect to suspension components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mousavi Bideleh, Seyed Milad; Berbyuk, Viktor

    2016-01-01

    The effects of bogie primary and secondary suspension stiffness and damping components on the dynamics behavior of a high speed train are scrutinized based on the multiplicative dimensional reduction method (M-DRM). A one-car railway vehicle model is chosen for the analysis at two levels of the bogie suspension system: symmetric and asymmetric configurations. Several operational scenarios including straight and circular curved tracks are considered, and measurement data are used as the track irregularities in different directions. Ride comfort, safety, and wear objective functions are specified to evaluate the vehicle’s dynamics performance on the prescribed operational scenarios. In order to have an appropriate cut center for the sensitivity analysis, the genetic algorithm optimization routine is employed to optimize the primary and secondary suspension components in terms of wear and comfort, respectively. The global sensitivity indices are introduced and the Gaussian quadrature integrals are employed to evaluate the simplified sensitivity indices correlated to the objective functions. In each scenario, the most influential suspension components on bogie dynamics are recognized and a thorough analysis of the results is given. The outcomes of the current research provide informative data that can be beneficial in design and optimization of passive and active suspension components for high speed train bogies.

  11. Global sensitivity analysis of bogie dynamics with respect to suspension components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mousavi Bideleh, Seyed Milad, E-mail: milad.mousavi@chalmers.se; Berbyuk, Viktor, E-mail: viktor.berbyuk@chalmers.se [Chalmers University of Technology, Department of Applied Mechanics (Sweden)

    2016-06-15

    The effects of bogie primary and secondary suspension stiffness and damping components on the dynamics behavior of a high speed train are scrutinized based on the multiplicative dimensional reduction method (M-DRM). A one-car railway vehicle model is chosen for the analysis at two levels of the bogie suspension system: symmetric and asymmetric configurations. Several operational scenarios including straight and circular curved tracks are considered, and measurement data are used as the track irregularities in different directions. Ride comfort, safety, and wear objective functions are specified to evaluate the vehicle’s dynamics performance on the prescribed operational scenarios. In order to have an appropriate cut center for the sensitivity analysis, the genetic algorithm optimization routine is employed to optimize the primary and secondary suspension components in terms of wear and comfort, respectively. The global sensitivity indices are introduced and the Gaussian quadrature integrals are employed to evaluate the simplified sensitivity indices correlated to the objective functions. In each scenario, the most influential suspension components on bogie dynamics are recognized and a thorough analysis of the results is given. The outcomes of the current research provide informative data that can be beneficial in design and optimization of passive and active suspension components for high speed train bogies.

  12. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

    2012-09-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

  13. USING GEM - GLOBAL ECONOMIC MODEL IN ACHIEVING A GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECAST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Madalina Orac

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The global economic development model has proved to be insufficiently reliable under the new economic crisis. As a result, the entire theoretical construction about the global economy needs rethinking and reorientation. In this context, it is quite clear that only through effective use of specific techniques and tools of economic-mathematical modeling, statistics, regional analysis and economic forecasting it is possible to obtain an overview of the future economy.

  14. Nonlinear dynamic phenomena in the beer model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mosekilde, Erik; Laugesen, Jakob Lund

    2007-01-01

    The production-distribution system or "beer game" is one of the most well-known system dynamics models. Notorious for the complex dynamics it produces, the beer game has been used for nearly five decades to illustrate how structure generates behavior and to explore human decision making. Here we...

  15. Phone Routing using the Dynamic Memory Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Claus Nicolaj; Krink, Thiemo

    2002-01-01

    In earlier studies a genetic algorithm (GA) extended with the dynamic memory model has shown remarkable performance on real-world-like problems. In this paper we experiment with routing in communication networks and show that the dynamic memory GA performs remarkable well compared to ant colony...

  16. Global dynamics of oscillator populations under common noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, W.; Pikovsky, A.; Matias, M. A.; Colet, P.

    2012-07-01

    Common noise acting on a population of identical oscillators can synchronize them. We develop a description of this process which is not limited to the states close to synchrony, but provides a global picture of the evolution of the ensembles. The theory is based on the Watanabe-Strogatz transformation, allowing us to obtain closed stochastic equations for the global variables. We show that at the initial stage, the order parameter grows linearly in time, while at the later stages the convergence to synchrony is exponentially fast. Furthermore, we extend the theory to nonidentical ensembles with the Lorentzian distribution of natural frequencies and determine the stationary values of the order parameter in dependence on driving noise and mismatch.

  17. Handbook of international insurance between global dynamics and local contingencies

    CERN Document Server

    Venard, Bertrand

    2007-01-01

    THE HANDBOOK OF INTERNATIONAL INSURANCE Gordon Stewart, President, Insurance Information Institute, New York, USA "The globalization of insurance markets means that understanding both international developments and local trends around the world is now fundamental for insurance executives coping with today’s complex and competitive environment. By providing such a comprehensive picture of the world’s insurance markets, this unique and necessary book becomes an essential tool for anyone seeking to operate wisely and successfully. Richard D. Phillips, Professor and Chairman, Department of Risk Management and Insurance, Georgia State University, Atlanta, USA "Comprehensive surveys, written by international experts, provide in depth descriptions and discuss recent developments of the world’s major insurance markets. Each chapter contains essential insights for insurance executives and academic researchers interested in risk management and the globalization of insurance markets." Patrick Liedtke, Secretary Ge...

  18. A Global Modeling Framework for Plasma Kinetics: Development and Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsey, Guy Morland

    The modern study of plasmas, and applications thereof, has developed synchronously with com- puter capabilities since the mid-1950s. Complexities inherent to these charged-particle, many- body, systems have resulted in the development of multiple simulation methods (particle-in-cell, fluid, global modeling, etc.) in order to both explain observed phenomena and predict outcomes of plasma applications. Recognizing that different algorithms are chosen to best address specific topics of interest, this thesis centers around the development of an open-source global model frame- work for the focused study of non-equilibrium plasma kinetics. After verification and validation of the framework, it was used to study two physical phenomena: plasma-assisted combustion and the recently proposed optically-pumped rare gas metastable laser. Global models permeate chemistry and plasma science, relying on spatial averaging to focus attention on the dynamics of reaction networks. Defined by a set of species continuity and energy conservation equations, the required data and constructed systems are conceptually similar across most applications, providing a light platform for exploratory and result-search parameter scan- ning. Unfortunately, it is common practice for custom code to be developed for each application-- an enormous duplication of effort which negatively affects the quality of the software produced. Presented herein, the Python-based Kinetic Global Modeling framework (KGMf) was designed to support all modeling phases: collection and analysis of reaction data, construction of an exportable system of model ODEs, and a platform for interactive evaluation and post-processing analysis. A symbolic ODE system is constructed for interactive manipulation and generation of a Jacobian, both of which are compiled as operation-optimized C-code. Plasma-assisted combustion and ignition (PAC/PAI) embody the modernization of burning fuel by opening up new avenues of control and optimization

  19. DYNAMICS AND NEW CHALLENGES IN THE GLOBAL COMMODITY MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIA CARTAS

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Global economy and particularly the world production of goods depends to a large extent on the supply of raw materials, of resource inputs extracted from the environment as well as an easy access to them. Commodities play an important part in the growth of global production and in the world trade in goods and services. The access to raw materials is vital for sustaining the productive capacity of the economy and also for satisfying domestic demand for industrial goods. On the other side, increasing demand for commodities and the need for assuring a sustainable supply pose great challenges on the world economy. The issue of raw materials supply represents a high - priority theme in the political agenda of the European Union. The Raw Materials Initiative launched in 2008 by the European Commission is based on three main pillars: - to ensure the access to raw materials on world market at undistorted conditions; - to foster sustainable supply of raw materials from European sources; - to reduce the EU's consumption of primary raw materials. (EC, 2008. To this end, EC has started to take action in order to ensure access to resources and avoid supply shortages. A great deal of attention is being paid to the study of recent developments in the global and particular commodity markets, taking into consideration fundamental aspects as supply concentration, governance of producing countries, the pressure of demand and its impact on prices, material's substitutability, stressing the role of resource consumption efficiency, recycling and substitution of vital raw materials and thus providing policy makers and industry with reliable information on how to efficiently manage resource inputs. This paper is dealing with the main developments which occurred during the past decade or so in the global commodity market, a major driver of the world economy, with particular reference to selected key -markets - as: aluminium, copper, nickel; cotton; corn, meat - swine

  20. Consciousness as a global property of brain dynamic activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateos, D. M.; Wennberg, R.; Guevara, R.; Perez Velazquez, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    We seek general principles of the structure of the cellular collective activity associated with conscious awareness. Can we obtain evidence for features of the optimal brain organization that allows for adequate processing of stimuli and that may guide the emergence of cognition and consciousness? Analyzing brain recordings in conscious and unconscious states, we followed initially the classic approach in physics when it comes to understanding collective behaviours of systems composed of a myriad of units: the assessment of the number of possible configurations (microstates) that the system can adopt, for which we use a global entropic measure associated with the number of connected brain regions. Having found maximal entropy in conscious states, we then inspected the microscopic nature of the configurations of connections using an adequate complexity measure and found higher complexity in states characterized not only by conscious awareness but also by subconscious cognitive processing, such as sleep stages. Our observations indicate that conscious awareness is associated with maximal global (macroscopic) entropy and with the short time scale (microscopic) complexity of the configurations of connected brain networks in pathological unconscious states (seizures and coma), but the microscopic view captures the high complexity in physiological unconscious states (sleep) where there is information processing. As such, our results support the global nature of conscious awareness, as advocated by several theories of cognition. We thus hope that our studies represent preliminary steps to reveal aspects of the structure of cognition that leads to conscious awareness.

  1. Dynamic queuing transmission model for dynamic network loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raovic, Nevena; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2017-01-01

    and allowing for the representation of multiple vehicle classes, queue spillbacks and shock waves. The model assumes that a link is split into a moving part plus a queuing part, and p that traffic dynamics are given by a triangular fundamental diagram. A case-study is investigated and the DQTM is compared...

  2. An integrated model to simulate sown area changes for major crops at a global scale

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHIBASAKI; Ryosuke

    2008-01-01

    Dynamics of land use systems have attracted much attention from scientists around the world due to their ecological and socio-economic implications. An integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of four major crops (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) on a global scale is pre- sented. To do so, a crop choice model was developed on the basis of Multinomial Logit (Logit) model to model land users’ decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives with using a crop utility function. A GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted to simulate the crop yields under a given geophysical environment and farming management conditions, while the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model was utilized to estimate crop price in the international market. The crop choice model was linked with the GIS-based EPIC model and the IFPSIM model through data exchange. This integrated model was then validated against the FAO statistical data in 2001-2003 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) global land cover product in 2001. Both validation approaches indicated reliability of the model for ad- dressing the dynamics in agricultural land use and its capability for long-term scenario analysis. Finally, the model application was designed to run over a time period of 30 a, taking the year 2000 as baseline. The model outcomes can help understand and explain the causes, locations and consequences of land use changes, and provide support for land use planning and policy making.

  3. Parameterization of dust emissions in the global atmospheric chemistry-climate model EMAC: impact of nudging and soil properties

    OpenAIRE

    Astitha, M.; Lelieveld, J.; Kader, M. Abdel; Pozzer, A.; de Meij, A.

    2012-01-01

    Airborne desert dust influences radiative transfer, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, as well as nutrient transport and deposition. It directly and indirectly affects climate on regional and global scales. Two versions of a parameterization scheme to compute desert dust emissions are incorporated into the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy2.41 Atmospheric Chemistry). One uses a global...

  4. Using animation quality metric to improve efficiency of global illumination computation for dynamic environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myszkowski, Karol; Tawara, Takehiro; Seidel, Hans-Peter

    2002-06-01

    In this paper, we consider applications of perception-based video quality metrics to improve the performance of global lighting computations for dynamic environments. For this purpose we extend the Visible Difference Predictor (VDP) developed by Daly to handle computer animations. We incorporate into the VDP the spatio-velocity CSF model developed by Kelly. The CSF model requires data on the velocity of moving patterns across the image plane. We use the 3D image warping technique to compensate for the camera motion, and we conservatively assume that the motion of animated objects (usually strong attractors of the visual attention) is fully compensated by the smooth pursuit eye motion. Our global illumination solution is based on stochastic photon tracing and takes advantage of temporal coherence of lighting distribution, by processing photons both in the spatial and temporal domains. The VDP is used to keep noise inherent in stochastic methods below the sensitivity level of the human observer. As a result a perceptually-consistent quality across all animation frames is obtained.

  5. Human impacts on 20th century fire dynamics and implications for global carbon and water trajectories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fang; Lawrence, David M.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

    2018-03-01

    Fire is a fundamental Earth system process and the primary ecosystem disturbance on the global scale. It affects carbon and water cycles through changing terrestrial ecosystems, and at the same time, is regulated by weather and climate, vegetation characteristics, and, importantly, human ignitions and suppression (i.e., the direct human effect on fire). Here, we utilize the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) to quantify the impacts of changes in human ignition and suppression on fire dynamics and associated carbon and water cycles. We find that the impact is to significantly reduce the 20th century global burned area by a century average of 38 Mha/yr and by 103 Mha/yr at the end of the century. Land carbon gain is weakened by 17% over the 20th century, mainly due to increased human deforestation fires and associated escape fires (i.e., degradation fires) in the tropical humid forests, even though the decrease in burned area in many other regions due to human fire suppression acts to increase land carbon gain. The direct human effect on fire weakens the upward trend in global runoff throughout the century by 6% and enhances the upward trend in global evapotranspiration since 1945 by 7%. In addition, the above impacts in densely populated, highly developed (if population density > 0.1 person/km2), or moderately populated and developed regions are of opposite sign to those in other regions. Our study suggests that particular attention should be paid to human deforestation and degradation fires in the tropical humid forests when reconstructing and projecting fire carbon emissions and net atmosphere-land carbon exchange and estimating resultant impacts of direct human effect on fire.

  6. Human impacts on 20th century fire dynamics and implications for global carbon and water trajectories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Fang; Lawrence, David M.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

    2018-03-01

    Fire is a fundamental Earth system process and the primary ecosystem disturbance on the global scale. It affects carbon and water cycles through changing terrestrial ecosystems, and at the same time, is regulated by weather and climate, vegetation characteristics, and, importantly, human ignitions and suppression (i.e., the direct human effect on fire). Here, we utilize the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) to quantify the impacts of changes in human ignition and suppression on fire dynamics and associated carbon and water cycles. We find that the impact is to significantly reduce the 20th century global burned area by a century average of 38 Mha/yr and by 103 Mha/yr at the end of the century. Land carbon gain is weakened by 17% over the 20th century, mainly due to increased human deforestation fires and associated escape fires (i.e., degradation fires) in the tropical humid forests, even though the decrease in burned area in many other regions due to human fire suppression acts to increase land carbon gain. The direct human effect on fire weakens the upward trend in global runoff throughout the century by 6% and enhances the upward trend in global evapotranspiration since ~ 1945 by 7%. In addition, the above impacts in densely populated, highly developed (if population density > 0.1 person/km2), or moderately populated and developed regions are of opposite sign to those in other regions. Our study suggests that particular attention should be paid to human deforestation and degradation fires in the tropical humid forests when reconstructing and projecting fire carbon emissions and net atmosphere-land carbon exchange and estimating resultant impacts of direct human effect on fire.

  7. Component-Level Selection and Qualification for the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) Laser Altimeter Transmitter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frese, Erich A.; Chiragh, Furqan L.; Switzer, Robert; Vasilyev, Aleksey A.; Thomes, Joe; Coyle, D. Barry; Stysley, Paul R.

    2018-01-01

    Flight quality solid-state lasers require a unique and extensive set of testing and qualification processes, both at the system and component levels to insure the laser's promised performance. As important as the overall laser transmitter design is, the quality and performance of individual subassemblies, optics, and electro-optics dictate the final laser unit's quality. The Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) laser transmitters employ all the usual components typical for a diode-pumped, solid-state laser, yet must each go through their own individual process of specification, modeling, performance demonstration, inspection, and destructive testing. These qualification processes and results for the laser crystals, laser diode arrays, electro-optics, and optics, will be reviewed as well as the relevant critical issues encountered, prior to their installation in the GEDI flight laser units.

  8. Predicting Earth orientation changes from global forecasts of atmosphere-hydrosphere dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobslaw, Henryk; Dill, Robert

    2018-02-01

    Effective Angular Momentum (EAM) functions obtained from global numerical simulations of atmosphere, ocean, and land surface dynamics are routinely processed by the Earth System Modelling group at Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum. EAM functions are available since January 1976 with up to 3 h temporal resolution. Additionally, 6 days-long EAM forecasts are routinely published every day. Based on hindcast experiments with 305 individual predictions distributed over 15 months, we demonstrate that EAM forecasts improve the prediction accuracy of the Earth Orientation Parameters at all forecast horizons between 1 and 6 days. At day 6, prediction accuracy improves down to 1.76 mas for the terrestrial pole offset, and 2.6 mas for Δ UT1, which correspond to an accuracy increase of about 41% over predictions published in Bulletin A by the International Earth Rotation and Reference System Service.

  9. Integrating microbial diversity in soil carbon dynamic models parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis, Benjamin; Menasseri-Aubry, Safya; Leterme, Philippe; Maron, Pierre-Alain; Viaud, Valérie

    2015-04-01

    sampling time in order to follow the dynamic of residue and soil organic matter mineralization. Diversity, structure and composition of microbial communities have been characterized before incubation time. The dynamic of carbon fluxes through CO2 emissions has been modelled through a simple model. Using statistical tools, relations between parameters of the model and microbial diversity indexes and/or pedological characteristics have been developed and integrated to the model. First results show that global diversity has an impact on the models parameters. Moreover, larger fungi diversity seems to lead to larger parameters representing decomposition rates and/or carbon use efficiencies than bacterial diversity. Classically, pedological factors such as soil pH and texture must also be taken into account.

  10. New Temperature-based Models for Predicting Global Solar Radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, Gasser E.; Youssef, M. Elsayed; Mohamed, Zahraa E.; Ali, Mohamed A.; Hanafy, Ahmed A.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • New temperature-based models for estimating solar radiation are investigated. • The models are validated against 20-years measured data of global solar radiation. • The new temperature-based model shows the best performance for coastal sites. • The new temperature-based model is more accurate than the sunshine-based models. • The new model is highly applicable with weather temperature forecast techniques. - Abstract: This study presents new ambient-temperature-based models for estimating global solar radiation as alternatives to the widely used sunshine-based models owing to the unavailability of sunshine data at all locations around the world. Seventeen new temperature-based models are established, validated and compared with other three models proposed in the literature (the Annandale, Allen and Goodin models) to estimate the monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. These models are developed using a 20-year measured dataset of global solar radiation for the case study location (Lat. 30°51′N and long. 29°34′E), and then, the general formulae of the newly suggested models are examined for ten different locations around Egypt. Moreover, the local formulae for the models are established and validated for two coastal locations where the general formulae give inaccurate predictions. Mostly common statistical errors are utilized to evaluate the performance of these models and identify the most accurate model. The obtained results show that the local formula for the most accurate new model provides good predictions for global solar radiation at different locations, especially at coastal sites. Moreover, the local and general formulas of the most accurate temperature-based model also perform better than the two most accurate sunshine-based models from the literature. The quick and accurate estimations of the global solar radiation using this approach can be employed in the design and evaluation of performance for

  11. Some dynamical aspects of interacting quintessence model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Binayak S Choudhury

    2018-03-16

    Mar 16, 2018 ... Accelerated expansion of the Universe; quintessence; dynamical system; Friedmann–Lemaitre–. Robertson–Walker ... accepted theoretical model. One of the .... Thus, quintessence loses its self-strength and gives dark matter.

  12. Modeling of truck's braking dynamics with ABS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maxym DYACHUK

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In the article some questions of ABS simulation on the basis of plane vehicle's dynamics and automatic modeling are considered. The author's algorithm of ABS modulators control is presented.

  13. Evaluation of global climate models for Indian monsoon climatology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kodra, Evan; Ganguly, Auroop R; Ghosh, Subimal

    2012-01-01

    The viability of global climate models for forecasting the Indian monsoon is explored. Evaluation and intercomparison of model skills are employed to assess the reliability of individual models and to guide model selection strategies. Two dominant and unique patterns of Indian monsoon climatology are trends in maximum temperature and periodicity in total rainfall observed after 30 yr averaging over India. An examination of seven models and their ensembles reveals that no single model or model selection strategy outperforms the rest. The single-best model for the periodicity of Indian monsoon rainfall is the only model that captures a low-frequency natural climate oscillator thought to dictate the periodicity. The trend in maximum temperature, which most models are thought to handle relatively better, is best captured through a multimodel average compared to individual models. The results suggest a need to carefully evaluate individual models and model combinations, in addition to physical drivers where possible, for regional projections from global climate models. (letter)

  14. Dynamic Models of Insurgent Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-19

    one dimension that has recently been studied in the computer science community. The model involves movement with a speed proportional to a “fear...more realistic model of human locomotion. The movement of the criminal agents follows a biased Levy flight with step sizes distributed according to a...power-law distribution. The biased Brownian motion of the original model is then derived as a special case. Starting with an agent-based model, we

  15. Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

  16. A Simple Model of Global Aerosol Indirect Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghan, Steven J.; Smith, Steven J.; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Kai; Pringle, Kirsty; Carslaw, Kenneth; Pierce, Jeffrey; Bauer, Susanne; Adams, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) using analytic representations of cloud and aerosol distributions and processes. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of AIEs that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates by the simple model are sensitive to preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, preindustrial accumulation mode radius, width of the accumulation mode, size of primary particles, cloud thickness, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Estimates of present-day AIEs as low as 5 W/sq m and as high as 0.3 W/sq m are obtained for plausible sets of parameter values. Estimates are surprisingly linear in emissions. The estimates depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models, which adds to understanding of the dependence on AIE uncertainty on uncertainty in parameter values.

  17. Structure and dynamics of the global financial network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Thiago Christiano; Rubens Stancato de Souza, Sergio; Tabak, Benjamin Miranda

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we study the evolution of the network topology for the global financial market. We evaluate the level of diversification and participation of developed and emerging economies in cross-border exposures and find that the gross exposure network is dense, the vulnerability matrix is sparse, and the network’s fragility changes over time. Prior to the financial crisis in 2008, the network was relatively fragile, whereas it became more resilient afterwards, showing a reduction in financial institutions’ risk appetite. Our results suggest that financial regulators should track down the network evolution in their systemic risk assessment.

  18. Bond graph modeling of nuclear reactor dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tylee, J.L.

    1981-01-01

    A tenth-order linear model of a pressurized water reactor (PWR) is developed using bond graph techniques. The model describes the nuclear heat generation process and the transfer of this heat to the reactor coolant. Comparisons between the calculated model response and test data from a small-scale PWR show the model to be an adequate representation of the actual plant dynamics. Possible application of the model in an advanced plant diagnostic system is discussed

  19. Dynamic model updating based on strain mode shape and natural frequency using hybrid pattern search technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Ning; Yang, Zhichun; Wang, Le; Ouyang, Yan; Zhang, Xinping

    2018-05-01

    Aiming at providing a precise dynamic structural finite element (FE) model for dynamic strength evaluation in addition to dynamic analysis. A dynamic FE model updating method is presented to correct the uncertain parameters of the FE model of a structure using strain mode shapes and natural frequencies. The strain mode shape, which is sensitive to local changes in structure, is used instead of the displacement mode for enhancing model updating. The coordinate strain modal assurance criterion is developed to evaluate the correlation level at each coordinate over the experimental and the analytical strain mode shapes. Moreover, the natural frequencies which provide the global information of the structure are used to guarantee the accuracy of modal properties of the global model. Then, the weighted summation of the natural frequency residual and the coordinate strain modal assurance criterion residual is used as the objective function in the proposed dynamic FE model updating procedure. The hybrid genetic/pattern-search optimization algorithm is adopted to perform the dynamic FE model updating procedure. Numerical simulation and model updating experiment for a clamped-clamped beam are performed to validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the present method. The results show that the proposed method can be used to update the uncertain parameters with good robustness. And the updated dynamic FE model of the beam structure, which can correctly predict both the natural frequencies and the local dynamic strains, is reliable for the following dynamic analysis and dynamic strength evaluation.

  20. Swarm Intelligence for Urban Dynamics Modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghnemat, Rawan; Bertelle, Cyrille; Duchamp, Gerard H. E.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we propose swarm intelligence algorithms to deal with dynamical and spatial organization emergence. The goal is to model and simulate the developement of spatial centers using multi-criteria. We combine a decentralized approach based on emergent clustering mixed with spatial constraints or attractions. We propose an extension of the ant nest building algorithm with multi-center and adaptive process. Typically, this model is suitable to analyse and simulate urban dynamics like gentrification or the dynamics of the cultural equipment in urban area.

  1. Swarm Intelligence for Urban Dynamics Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghnemat, Rawan; Bertelle, Cyrille; Duchamp, Gérard H. E.

    2009-04-01

    In this paper, we propose swarm intelligence algorithms to deal with dynamical and spatial organization emergence. The goal is to model and simulate the developement of spatial centers using multi-criteria. We combine a decentralized approach based on emergent clustering mixed with spatial constraints or attractions. We propose an extension of the ant nest building algorithm with multi-center and adaptive process. Typically, this model is suitable to analyse and simulate urban dynamics like gentrification or the dynamics of the cultural equipment in urban area.

  2. Description and validation of the Simple, Efficient, Dynamic, Global, Ecological Simulator (SEDGES v.1.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiewonsky, Pablo; Elison Timm, Oliver

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, we present a simple dynamic global vegetation model whose primary intended use is auxiliary to the land-atmosphere coupling scheme of a climate model, particularly one of intermediate complexity. The model simulates and provides important ecological-only variables but also some hydrological and surface energy variables that are typically either simulated by land surface schemes or else used as boundary data input for these schemes. The model formulations and their derivations are presented here, in detail. The model includes some realistic and useful features for its level of complexity, including a photosynthetic dependency on light, full coupling of photosynthesis and transpiration through an interactive canopy resistance, and a soil organic carbon dependence for bare-soil albedo. We evaluate the model's performance by running it as part of a simple land surface scheme that is driven by reanalysis data. The evaluation against observational data includes net primary productivity, leaf area index, surface albedo, and diagnosed variables relevant for the closure of the hydrological cycle. In this setup, we find that the model gives an adequate to good simulation of basic large-scale ecological and hydrological variables. Of the variables analyzed in this paper, gross primary productivity is particularly well simulated. The results also reveal the current limitations of the model. The most significant deficiency is the excessive simulation of evapotranspiration in mid- to high northern latitudes during their winter to spring transition. The model has a relative advantage in situations that require some combination of computational efficiency, model transparency and tractability, and the simulation of the large-scale vegetation and land surface characteristics under non-present-day conditions.

  3. Competing With the Use of Business Model innovation - an Exploratory Case Study of the Journey of Born Global Firms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marlene Johansson

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this article is to investigate how business models are used by born global firms to act upon new business opportunities and how they manage business model innovation over time to prosper and grow. Design/Methodology: The study is based on three exploratory case studies of born global firms in mobile communication, financial services and digital music distribution. Findings: Three interrelated capabilities to manage business model innovation are articulated in the context of born global firms; sensing capabilities, entrepreneurial capabilities and relational capabilities and four propositions are formulated. We find that business model innovations are used as a tool by maturing born global firms to navigate the value chains and achieve international growth. We further propose that born global need the capabilities to balance different business model designs simultaneously and to manage its business model innovation in a timely manner. Originality: This article contributes to both the business model literature and research of international entrepreneurship. By putting business model research into the dynamic context of rapidly internationalizing born global firms, we contribute to the field of business model research with findings of how business models are used in the internationalization processes. Certain capabilities are needed to manage business model innovation for born global firms to dynamically use business models as a tool in the international growth overtime.

  4. Understanding and Modeling Teams As Dynamical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorman, Jamie C.; Dunbar, Terri A.; Grimm, David; Gipson, Christina L.

    2017-01-01

    By its very nature, much of teamwork is distributed across, and not stored within, interdependent people working toward a common goal. In this light, we advocate a systems perspective on teamwork that is based on general coordination principles that are not limited to cognitive, motor, and physiological levels of explanation within the individual. In this article, we present a framework for understanding and modeling teams as dynamical systems and review our empirical findings on teams as dynamical systems. We proceed by (a) considering the question of why study teams as dynamical systems, (b) considering the meaning of dynamical systems concepts (attractors; perturbation; synchronization; fractals) in the context of teams, (c) describe empirical studies of team coordination dynamics at the perceptual-motor, cognitive-behavioral, and cognitive-neurophysiological levels of analysis, and (d) consider the theoretical and practical implications of this approach, including new kinds of explanations of human performance and real-time analysis and performance modeling. Throughout our discussion of the topics we consider how to describe teamwork using equations and/or modeling techniques that describe the dynamics. Finally, we consider what dynamical equations and models do and do not tell us about human performance in teams and suggest future research directions in this area. PMID:28744231

  5. Existence of global attractor for the Trojan Y Chromosome model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaopeng Zhao

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the long time behavior of solution for the equation derived by the Trojan Y Chromosome (TYC model with spatial spread. Based on the regularity estimates for the semigroups and the classical existence theorem of global attractors, we prove that this equations possesses a global attractor in $H^k(\\Omega^4$ $(k\\geq 0$ space.

  6. Models for prediction of global solar radiation on horizontal surface ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The estimation of global solar radiation continues to play a fundamental role in solar engineering systems and applications. This paper compares various models for estimating the average monthly global solar radiation on horizontal surface for Akure, Nigeria, using solar radiation and sunshine duration data covering years ...

  7. OILMAP: A global approach to spill modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spaulding, M.L.; Howlett, E.; Anderson, E.; Jayko, K.

    1992-01-01

    OILMAP is an oil spill model system suitable for use in both rapid response mode and long-range contingency planning. It was developed for a personal computer and employs full-color graphics to enter data, set up spill scenarios, and view model predictions. The major components of OILMAP include environmental data entry and viewing capabilities, the oil spill models, and model prediction display capabilities. Graphic routines are provided for entering wind data, currents, and any type of geographically referenced data. Several modes of the spill model are available. The surface trajectory mode is intended for quick spill response. The weathering model includes the spreading, evaporation, entrainment, emulsification, and shoreline interaction of oil. The stochastic and receptor models simulate a large number of trajectories from a single site for generating probability statistics. Each model and the algorithms they use are described. Several additional capabilities are planned for OILMAP, including simulation of tactical spill response and subsurface oil transport. 8 refs

  8. The New Realities of Global Health: Dynamics and Obstacles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marine Buissonnière

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Published by Palgrave MacmillanThe past 15 years have seen the arrival of new actors in the field of global health and an increase in development aid in the healthcare sector. These actors have claimed a significant share of the additional public and private resources available becoming the driving force in this new paradigm, often at the expense of traditional institutions, which have gradually lost their policy hegemony. Making choices and formulating policies on the matter of healthcare have ceased to be the sole prerogative of the institutions that had hitherto held the mandate and the responsibility for doing so. Entire areas of the healthcare sector are now dominated by private funders, which have become the de facto decision-makers on public health policy. This new situation raises fundamental questions about governance and accountability. Who decides policy? How are decisions made? All too often, countries in receipt of aid continue to suffer from inadequate coordination between donors and from the lack of a common agenda. With this in mind, it is worth exploring a number of ways of ensuring that global healthcare policies best reflect the beneficiary countries’ actual needs and aspirations.

  9. Groundwater development stress: Global-scale indices compared to regional modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alley, William; Clark, Brian R.; Ely, Matt; Faunt, Claudia

    2018-01-01

    The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.

  10. Dynamical models of spiral galaxies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grosbol, P.

    1990-01-01

    The effects of changing the basic parameters of rotation curve steepness, amount of bulge, and pitch angle of the imposed spiral pattern in the galactic model of Contoupolos and Grosbel (1986) are investigated. The general conclusions of the model are confirmed and shown to be insensitive to the specific choice of parameters for the galactic potential. The exact amplitude at which the nonlinear effects at the 4:1 resonance become important do, however, depend on the model

  11. Global forward-predicting dynamic routing for traffic concurrency space stereo multi-layer scale-free network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie Wei-Hao; Zhou Bin; Liu En-Xiao; Lu Wei-Dang; Zhou Ting

    2015-01-01

    Many real communication networks, such as oceanic monitoring network and land environment observation network, can be described as space stereo multi-layer structure, and the traffic in these networks is concurrent. Understanding how traffic dynamics depend on these real communication networks and finding an effective routing strategy that can fit the circumstance of traffic concurrency and enhance the network performance are necessary. In this light, we propose a traffic model for space stereo multi-layer complex network and introduce two kinds of global forward-predicting dynamic routing strategies, global forward-predicting hybrid minimum queue (HMQ) routing strategy and global forward-predicting hybrid minimum degree and queue (HMDQ) routing strategy, for traffic concurrency space stereo multi-layer scale-free networks. By applying forward-predicting strategy, the proposed routing strategies achieve better performances in traffic concurrency space stereo multi-layer scale-free networks. Compared with the efficient routing strategy and global dynamic routing strategy, HMDQ and HMQ routing strategies can optimize the traffic distribution, alleviate the number of congested packets effectively and reach much higher network capacity. (paper)

  12. Energy Balance Models and Planetary Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domagal-Goldman, Shawn

    2012-01-01

    We know that planetary dynamics can have a significant affect on the climate of planets. Planetary dynamics dominate the glacial-interglacial periods on Earth, leaving a significant imprint on the geological record. They have also been demonstrated to have a driving influence on the climates of other planets in our solar system. We should therefore expect th.ere to be similar relationships on extrasolar planets. Here we describe a simple energy balance model that can predict the growth and thickness of glaciers, and their feedbacks on climate. We will also describe model changes that we have made to include planetary dynamics effects. This is the model we will use at the start of our collaboration to handle the influence of dynamics on climate.

  13. Stirling Engine Dynamic System Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakis, Christopher G.

    2004-01-01

    The Thermo-Mechanical systems branch at the Glenn Research Center focuses a large amount time on Stirling engines. These engines will be used on missions where solar power is inefficient, especially in deep space. I work with Tim Regan and Ed Lewandowski who are currently developing and validating a mathematical model for the Stirling engines. This model incorporates all aspects of the system including, mechanical, electrical and thermodynamic components. Modeling is done through Simplorer, a program capable of running simulations of the model. Once created and then proven to be accurate, a model is used for developing new ideas for engine design. My largest specific project involves varying key parameters in the model and quantifying the results. This can all be done relatively trouble-free with the help of Simplorer. Once the model is complete, Simplorer will do all the necessary calculations. The more complicated part of this project is determining which parameters to vary. Finding key parameters depends on the potential for a value to be independently altered in the design. For example, a change in one dimension may lead to a proportional change to the rest of the model, and no real progress is made. Also, the ability for a changed value to have a substantial impact on the outputs of the system is important. Results will be condensed into graphs and tables with the purpose of better communication and understanding of the data. With the changing of these parameters, a more optimal design can be created without having to purchase or build any models. Also, hours and hours of results can be simulated in minutes. In the long run, using mathematical models can save time and money. Along with this project, I have many other smaller assignments throughout the summer. My main goal is to assist in the processes of model development, validation and testing.

  14. Global Atmosphere Watch Workshop on Measurement-Model ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme coordinates high-quality observations of atmospheric composition from global to local scales with the aim to drive high-quality and high-impact science while co-producing a new generation of products and services. In line with this vision, GAW’s Scientific Advisory Group for Total Atmospheric Deposition (SAG-TAD) has a mandate to produce global maps of wet, dry and total atmospheric deposition for important atmospheric chemicals to enable research into biogeochemical cycles and assessments of ecosystem and human health effects. The most suitable scientific approach for this activity is the emerging technique of measurement-model fusion for total atmospheric deposition. This technique requires global-scale measurements of atmospheric trace gases, particles, precipitation composition and precipitation depth, as well as predictions of the same from global/regional chemical transport models. The fusion of measurement and model results requires data assimilation and mapping techniques. The objective of the GAW Workshop on Measurement-Model Fusion for Global Total Atmospheric Deposition (MMF-GTAD), an initiative of the SAG-TAD, was to review the state-of-the-science and explore the feasibility and methodology of producing, on a routine retrospective basis, global maps of atmospheric gas and aerosol concentrations as well as wet, dry and total deposition via measurement-model

  15. Brand Equity Evolution: a System Dynamics Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edson Crescitelli

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available One of the greatest challenges in brand management lies in monitoring brand equity over time. This paper aimsto present a simulation model able to represent this evolution. The model was drawn on brand equity concepts developed by Aaker and Joachimsthaler (2000, using the system dynamics methodology. The use ofcomputational dynamic models aims to create new sources of information able to sensitize academics and managers alike to the dynamic implications of their brand management. As a result, an easily implementable model was generated, capable of executing continuous scenario simulations by surveying casual relations among the variables that explain brand equity. Moreover, the existence of a number of system modeling tools will allow extensive application of the concepts used in this study in practical situations, both in professional and educational settings

  16. Discrete dynamic modeling of cellular signaling networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, Réka; Wang, Rui-Sheng

    2009-01-01

    Understanding signal transduction in cellular systems is a central issue in systems biology. Numerous experiments from different laboratories generate an abundance of individual components and causal interactions mediating environmental and developmental signals. However, for many signal transduction systems there is insufficient information on the overall structure and the molecular mechanisms involved in the signaling network. Moreover, lack of kinetic and temporal information makes it difficult to construct quantitative models of signal transduction pathways. Discrete dynamic modeling, combined with network analysis, provides an effective way to integrate fragmentary knowledge of regulatory interactions into a predictive mathematical model which is able to describe the time evolution of the system without the requirement for kinetic parameters. This chapter introduces the fundamental concepts of discrete dynamic modeling, particularly focusing on Boolean dynamic models. We describe this method step-by-step in the context of cellular signaling networks. Several variants of Boolean dynamic models including threshold Boolean networks and piecewise linear systems are also covered, followed by two examples of successful application of discrete dynamic modeling in cell biology.

  17. GLOBAL ECONOMIC FACTORS ON GULF LABOR DYNAMICS: LOCALIZATION VERSUS IMMIGRATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esra Pakin ALBAYRAKOGLU

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC represents an ambitious bloc of six Arab countries in pursuit of deeper integration with the global economy. Although the members differ among themselves in terms of composition of population, natural resources or economic and military capabilities, they look relatively similar as regards conservatism and prosperity based on hydrocarbon revenues. This paper presents an international political economy perspective on the past and present labor crises in the GCC countries and makes suggestions for improving the qualities and conditions of national and foreign work force. It is concluded that the GCC would survive in the post-carbon era, provided that economic diversification went coordinately with necessary adjustments in the labor sector

  18. Dynamics of radioactive lead isotopes in the global environmental atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koike, Yuya; Kosako, Toshiso

    2006-01-01

    Fundamental information of radioactive lead isotopes, which used as the atmospheric tracer in the global environmental atmosphere, is reviewed. Emanation and exhalation of Rn and Tn, parent nuclide, is stated. Some reports on measurement and application of short-lived lead isotopes are reported. Transfer of radioactive lead isotopes in the atmosphere, vertical profiles of radon, thoron, and short-lived lead isotopes for different turbulent mixing conditions, deposition to aerosol, basic processes of Rn decay product behavior in air defining 'unattached' and 'aerosol-attached' activities, seasonal variation of atmospheric 210 Pb concentration at Beijing and Chengdu, seasonal variation of atmospheric 212 Pb concentration at several observation sites in Japan Islands, and variation in the atmospheric concentration of 212 Pb along with SO 2 are shown. (S.Y.)

  19. Global warming impact assessment of a crop residue gasification project—A dynamic LCA perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Jin; Chen, Bin

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A dynamic LCA is proposed considering time-varying factors. • Dynamic LCA is used to highlight GHG emission hotspots of gasification projects. • Indicators are proposed to reflect GHG emission performance. • Dynamic LCA alters the static LCA results. • Crop residue gasification project has high GHG abatement potential. - Abstract: Bioenergy from crop residues is one of the prevailing sustainable energy sources owing to the abundant reserves worldwide. Amongst a wide variety of energy conv