WorldWideScience

Sample records for global distribution model

  1. A fully traits-based approach to modeling global vegetation distribution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bodegom, van P.M.; Douma, J.C.; Verheijen, L.M.

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are indispensable for our understanding of climate change impacts. The application of traits in DGVMs is increasingly refined. However, a comprehensive analysis of the direct impacts of trait variation on global vegetation distribution does not yet exist.

  2. Global spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration modeled using a global database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashimoto, S.; Carvalhais, N.; Ito, A.; Migliavacca, M.; Nishina, K.; Reichstein, M.

    2015-07-01

    The flux of carbon dioxide from the soil to the atmosphere (soil respiration) is one of the major fluxes in the global carbon cycle. At present, the accumulated field observation data cover a wide range of geographical locations and climate conditions. However, there are still large uncertainties in the magnitude and spatiotemporal variation of global soil respiration. Using a global soil respiration data set, we developed a climate-driven model of soil respiration by modifying and updating Raich's model, and the global spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration was examined using this model. The model was applied at a spatial resolution of 0.5°and a monthly time step. Soil respiration was divided into the heterotrophic and autotrophic components of respiration using an empirical model. The estimated mean annual global soil respiration was 91 Pg C yr-1 (between 1965 and 2012; Monte Carlo 95 % confidence interval: 87-95 Pg C yr-1) and increased at the rate of 0.09 Pg C yr-2. The contribution of soil respiration from boreal regions to the total increase in global soil respiration was on the same order of magnitude as that of tropical and temperate regions, despite a lower absolute magnitude of soil respiration in boreal regions. The estimated annual global heterotrophic respiration and global autotrophic respiration were 51 and 40 Pg C yr-1, respectively. The global soil respiration responded to the increase in air temperature at the rate of 3.3 Pg C yr-1 °C-1, and Q10 = 1.4. Our study scaled up observed soil respiration values from field measurements to estimate global soil respiration and provide a data-oriented estimate of global soil respiration. The estimates are based on a semi-empirical model parameterized with over one thousand data points. Our analysis indicates that the climate controls on soil respiration may translate into an increasing trend in global soil respiration and our analysis emphasizes the relevance of the soil carbon flux from soil to

  3. Global distribution of urban parameters derived from high-resolution global datasets for weather modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawano, N.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Dong, Y.; Kanda, M.

    2016-12-01

    Numerical model such as Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with single-layer Urban Canopy Model (WRF-UCM) is one of the powerful tools to investigate urban heat island. Urban parameters such as average building height (Have), plain area index (λp) and frontal area index (λf), are necessary inputs for the model. In general, these parameters are uniformly assumed in WRF-UCM but this leads to unrealistic urban representation. Distributed urban parameters can also be incorporated into WRF-UCM to consider a detail urban effect. The problem is that distributed building information is not readily available for most megacities especially in developing countries. Furthermore, acquiring real building parameters often require huge amount of time and money. In this study, we investigated the potential of using globally available satellite-captured datasets for the estimation of the parameters, Have, λp, and λf. Global datasets comprised of high spatial resolution population dataset (LandScan by Oak Ridge National Laboratory), nighttime lights (NOAA), and vegetation fraction (NASA). True samples of Have, λp, and λf were acquired from actual building footprints from satellite images and 3D building database of Tokyo, New York, Paris, Melbourne, Istanbul, Jakarta and so on. Regression equations were then derived from the block-averaging of spatial pairs of real parameters and global datasets. Results show that two regression curves to estimate Have and λf from the combination of population and nightlight are necessary depending on the city's level of development. An index which can be used to decide which equation to use for a city is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). On the other hand, λphas less dependence on GDP but indicated a negative relationship to vegetation fraction. Finally, a simplified but precise approximation of urban parameters through readily-available, high-resolution global datasets and our derived regressions can be utilized to estimate a

  4. Modeling the UT effect in global distribution of ionospheric electric fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lukianova, R.; Christiansen, Freddy

    2008-01-01

    A new approach for modeling the global distribution of ionospheric electric potentials utilizing high-precision maps of field-aligned currents (FACs) derived from measurements by the Orsted and Magsat satellites as input to a comprehensive numerical scheme is presented. We simulate the universal ...

  5. Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Assessment of global-scale model performance for global and regional ozone distributions, variability, and trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Young

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR is to provide the research community with an up-to-date scientific assessment of tropospheric ozone, from the surface to the tropopause. While a suite of observations provides significant information on the spatial and temporal distribution of tropospheric ozone, observational gaps make it necessary to use global atmospheric chemistry models to synthesize our understanding of the processes and variables that control tropospheric ozone abundance and its variability. Models facilitate the interpretation of the observations and allow us to make projections of future tropospheric ozone and trace gas distributions for different anthropogenic or natural perturbations. This paper assesses the skill of current-generation global atmospheric chemistry models in simulating the observed present-day tropospheric ozone distribution, variability, and trends. Drawing upon the results of recent international multi-model intercomparisons and using a range of model evaluation techniques, we demonstrate that global chemistry models are broadly skillful in capturing the spatio-temporal variations of tropospheric ozone over the seasonal cycle, for extreme pollution episodes, and changes over interannual to decadal periods. However, models are consistently biased high in the northern hemisphere and biased low in the southern hemisphere, throughout the depth of the troposphere, and are unable to replicate particular metrics that define the longer term trends in tropospheric ozone as derived from some background sites. When the models compare unfavorably against observations, we discuss the potential causes of model biases and propose directions for future developments, including improved evaluations that may be able to better diagnose the root cause of the model-observation disparity. Overall, model results should be approached critically, including determining whether the model performance is acceptable for

  6. Ecology and equity in global fisheries: Modelling policy options using theoretical distributions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rammelt, C.F.; van Schie, Maarten

    2016-01-01

    Global fisheries present a typical case of political ecology or environmental injustice, i.e. a problem of distribution of resources within ecological limits. We built a stock-flow model to visualize this challenge and its dynamics, with both an ecological and a social dimension. We incorporated

  7. Climate Impacts of CALIPSO-Guided Corrections to Black Carbon Aerosol Vertical Distributions in a Global Climate Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovilakam, Mahesh; Mahajan, Salil; Saravanan, R.; Chang, Ping

    2017-01-01

    Here, we alleviate the bias in the tropospheric vertical distribution of black carbon aerosols (BC) in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) using the Cloud-Aerosol and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO)-derived vertical profiles. A suite of sensitivity experiments are conducted with 1x, 5x, and 10x the present-day model estimated BC concentration climatology, with (corrected, CC) and without (uncorrected, UC) CALIPSO-corrected BC vertical distribution. The globally averaged top of the atmosphere radiative flux perturbation of CC experiments is ~8–50% smaller compared to uncorrected (UC) BC experiments largely due to an increase in low-level clouds. The global average surface temperature increases, the global average precipitation decreases, and the ITCZ moves northward with the increase in BC radiative forcing, irrespective of the vertical distribution of BC. Further, tropical expansion metrics for the poleward extent of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley cell (HC) indicate that simulated HC expansion is not sensitive to existing model biases in BC vertical distribution.

  8. On coupling global biome models with climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Claussen, M.

    1994-01-01

    The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, is coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg. It is found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only between the initial biome distribution and the biome distribution computed after the first simulation period, provided that the climate-biome model is started from a biome distribution that resembles the present-day distribution. After the first simulation period, there is no significant shrinking, expanding, or shifting of biomes. Likewise, no trend is seen in global averages of land-surface parameters and climate variables. (orig.)

  9. Revised spatially distributed global livestock emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asrar, G.; Wolf, J.; West, T. O.

    2015-12-01

    Livestock play an important role in agricultural carbon cycling through consumption of biomass and emissions of methane. Quantification and spatial distribution of methane and carbon dioxide produced by livestock is needed to develop bottom-up estimates for carbon monitoring. These estimates serve as stand-alone international emissions estimates, as input to global emissions modeling, and as comparisons or constraints to flux estimates from atmospheric inversion models. Recent results for the US suggest that the 2006 IPCC default coefficients may underestimate livestock methane emissions. In this project, revised coefficients were calculated for cattle and swine in all global regions, based on reported changes in body mass, quality and quantity of feed, milk production, and management of living animals and manure for these regions. New estimates of livestock methane and carbon dioxide emissions were calculated using the revised coefficients and global livestock population data. Spatial distribution of population data and associated fluxes was conducted using the MODIS Land Cover Type 5, version 5.1 (i.e. MCD12Q1 data product), and a previously published downscaling algorithm for reconciling inventory and satellite-based land cover data at 0.05 degree resolution. Preliminary results for 2013 indicate greater emissions than those calculated using the IPCC 2006 coefficients. Global total enteric fermentation methane increased by 6%, while manure management methane increased by 38%, with variation among species and regions resulting in improved spatial distributions of livestock emissions. These new estimates of total livestock methane are comparable to other recently reported studies for the entire US and the State of California. These new regional/global estimates will improve the ability to reconcile top-down and bottom-up estimates of methane production as well as provide updated global estimates for use in development and evaluation of Earth system models.

  10. Forecasting an invasive species’ distribution with global distribution data, local data, and physiological information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nicholas E.; Talbert, Marian; Talbert, Colin

    2018-01-01

    Understanding invasive species distributions and potential invasions often requires broad‐scale information on the environmental tolerances of the species. Further, resource managers are often faced with knowing these broad‐scale relationships as well as nuanced environmental factors related to their landscape that influence where an invasive species occurs and potentially could occur. Using invasive buffelgrass (Cenchrus ciliaris), we developed global models and local models for Saguaro National Park, Arizona, USA, based on location records and literature on physiological tolerances to environmental factors to investigate whether environmental relationships of a species at a global scale are also important at local scales. In addition to correlative models with five commonly used algorithms, we also developed a model using a priori user‐defined relationships between occurrence and environmental characteristics based on a literature review. All correlative models at both scales performed well based on statistical evaluations. The user‐defined curves closely matched those produced by the correlative models, indicating that the correlative models may be capturing mechanisms driving the distribution of buffelgrass. Given climate projections for the region, both global and local models indicate that conditions at Saguaro National Park may become more suitable for buffelgrass. Combining global and local data with correlative models and physiological information provided a holistic approach to forecasting invasive species distributions.

  11. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Larsen, Marcus M.; Bharati, Pratyush

    2013-01-01

    This article examines antecedents and performance implications of global delivery models (GDMs) in global business services. GDMs require geographically distributed operations to exploit both proximity to clients and time-zone spread for efficient service delivery. We propose and empirically show...

  12. Firm Size Distribution in Fortune Global 500

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qinghua; Chen, Liujun; Liu, Kai

    By analyzing the data of Fortune Global 500 firms from 1996 to 2008, we found that their ranks and revenues always obey the same distribution, which implies that worldwide firm structure has been stable for a long time. The fitting results show that simple Zipf distribution is not an ideal model for global firms, while SCL, FSS have better fitting goodness, and lognormal fitting is the best. And then, we proposed a simple explanation.

  13. Mapping local and global variability in plant trait distributions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Butler, Ethan E.; Datta, Abhirup; Flores-Moreno, Habacuc; Chen, Ming; Wythers, Kirk R.; Fazayeli, Farideh; Banerjee, Arindam; Atkin, Owen K.; Kattge, Jens; Amiaud, Bernard; Blonder, Benjamin; Boenisch, Gerhard; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Brown, Kerry A.; Byun, Chaeho; Campetella, Giandiego; Cerabolini, Bruno E. L.; Cornelissen, Johannes H. C.; Craine, Joseph M.; Craven, Dylan; de Vries, Franciska T.; Díaz, Sandra; Domingues, Tomas F.; Forey, Estelle; González-Melo, Andrés; Gross, Nicolas; Han, Wenxuan; Hattingh, Wesley N.; Hickler, Thomas; Jansen, Steven; Kramer, Koen; Kraft, Nathan J. B.; Kurokawa, Hiroko; Laughlin, Daniel C.; Meir, Patrick; Minden, Vanessa; Niinemets, Ülo; Onoda, Yusuke; Peñuelas, Josep; Read, Quentin; Sack, Lawren; Schamp, Brandon; Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A.; Spasojevic, Marko J.; Sosinski, Enio; Thornton, Peter E.; Valladares, Fernando; van Bodegom, Peter M.; Williams, Mathew; Wirth, Christian; Reich, Peter B.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate trait-environment relationships and global maps of plant trait distributions represent a needed stepping stone in global biogeography and are critical constraints of key parameters for land models. Here, we use a global data set of plant traits to map trait distributions closely coupled to photosynthesis and foliar respiration: specific leaf area (SLA), and dry mass-based concentrations of leaf nitrogen (Nm) and phosphorus (Pm); We propose two models to extrapolate geographically sparse point data to continuous spatial surfaces. The first is a categorical model using species mean trait values, categorized into plant functional types (PFTs) and extrapolating to PFT occurrence ranges identified by remote sensing. The second is a Bayesian spatial model that incorporates information about PFT, location and environmental covariates to estimate trait distributions. Both models are further stratified by varying the number of PFTs; The performance of the models was evaluated based on their explanatory and predictive ability. The Bayesian spatial model leveraging the largest number of PFTs produced the best maps; The interpolation of full trait distributions enables a wider diversity of vegetation to be represented across the land surface. These maps may be used as input to Earth System Models and to evaluate other estimates of functional diversity.

  14. Modeling global distribution of agricultural insecticides in surface waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ippolito, Alessio; Kattwinkel, Mira; Rasmussen, Jes J.; Schäfer, Ralf B.; Fornaroli, Riccardo; Liess, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    Agricultural insecticides constitute a major driver of animal biodiversity loss in freshwater ecosystems. However, the global extent of their effects and the spatial extent of exposure remain largely unknown. We applied a spatially explicit model to estimate the potential for agricultural insecticide runoff into streams. Water bodies within 40% of the global land surface were at risk of insecticide runoff. We separated the influence of natural factors and variables under human control determining insecticide runoff. In the northern hemisphere, insecticide runoff presented a latitudinal gradient mainly driven by insecticide application rate; in the southern hemisphere, a combination of daily rainfall intensity, terrain slope, agricultural intensity and insecticide application rate determined the process. The model predicted the upper limit of observed insecticide exposure measured in water bodies (n = 82) in five different countries reasonably well. The study provides a global map of hotspots for insecticide contamination guiding future freshwater management and conservation efforts. - Highlights: • First global map on insecticide runoff through modelling. • Model predicts upper limit of insecticide exposure when compared to field data. • Water bodies in 40% of global land surface may be at risk of adverse effects. • Insecticide application rate, terrain slope and rainfall main drivers of exposure. - We provide the first global map on insecticide runoff to surface water predicting that water bodies in 40% of global land surface may be at risk of adverse effects

  15. A cloud based model to facilitate software development uutsourcing to globally distributed locations

    OpenAIRE

    Hashmi, Sajid Ibrahim; Richardson, Ita

    2013-01-01

    peer-reviewed Outsourcing is an essential part of global software development and entails software development distributed across geographical borders. More specifically, it deals with software development teams dispersed across multiple geographical locations to carry out software development activities. By means of this business model, organizations expect to benefit from enhanced corporate value through advantages such as round the clock software development, availability of skills and ...

  16. The global distribution of deep-water Antipatharia habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yesson, Chris; Bedford, Faye; Rogers, Alex D.; Taylor, Michelle L.

    2017-11-01

    Antipatharia are a diverse group of corals with many species found in deep water. Many Antipatharia are habitat for associates, have extreme longevity and some species can occur beyond 8500 m depth. As they are major constituents of'coral gardens', which are Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems (VMEs), knowledge of their distribution and environmental requirements is an important pre-requisite for informed conservation planning particularly where the expense and difficulty of deep-sea sampling prohibits comprehensive surveys. This study uses a global database of Antipatharia distribution data to perform habitat suitability modelling using the Maxent methodology to estimate the global extent of black coral habitat suitability. The model of habitat suitability is driven by temperature but there is notable influence from other variables of topography, surface productivity and oxygen levels. This model can be used to predict areas of suitable habitat, which can be useful for conservation planning. The global distribution of Antipatharia habitat suitability shows a marked contrast with the distribution of specimen observations, indicating that many potentially suitable areas have not been sampled, and that sampling effort has been disproportionate to shallow, accessible areas inside marine protected areas (MPAs). Although 25% of Antipatharia observations are located in MPAs, only 7-8% of predicted suitable habitat is protected, which is short of the Convention on Biological Diversity target to protect 10% of ocean habitats by 2020.

  17. Global Land Carbon Uptake from Trait Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, E. E.; Datta, A.; Flores-Moreno, H.; Fazayeli, F.; Chen, M.; Wythers, K. R.; Banerjee, A.; Atkin, O. K.; Kattge, J.; Reich, P. B.

    2016-12-01

    Historically, functional diversity in land surface models has been represented through a range of plant functional types (PFTs), each of which has a single value for all of its functional traits. Here we expand the diversity of the land surface by using a distribution of trait values for each PFT. The data for these trait distributions is from a sub-set of the global database of plant traits, TRY, and this analysis uses three leaf traits: mass based nitrogen and phosphorus content and specific leaf area, which influence both photosynthesis and respiration. The data are extrapolated into continuous surfaces through two methodologies. The first, a categorical method, classifies the species observed in TRY into satellite estimates of their plant functional type abundances - analogous to how traits are currently assigned to PFTs in land surface models. Second, a Bayesian spatial method which additionally estimates how the distribution of a trait changes in accord with both climate and soil covariates. These two methods produce distinct patterns of diversity which are incorporated into a land surface model to estimate how the range of trait values affects the global land carbon budget.

  18. Global Landslide Hazard Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Landslide Hazard Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid of global landslide and snow avalanche hazards based upon work of the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute...

  19. Modelling global distribution, risk and mitigation strategies of floating plastic pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Sebille, Erik; Wilcox, Chris; Sherman, Peter; Hardesty, Britta Denise; Lavender Law, Kara

    2016-04-01

    Microplastic debris floating at the ocean surface can harm marine life. Understanding the severity of this harm requires knowledge of plastic abundance and distributions. Dozens of expeditions measuring microplastics have been carried out since the 1970s, but they have primarily focused on the North Pacific and North Atlantic accumulation zones, with much sparser coverage elsewhere. Here, we use the largest dataset of microplastic measurements assembled to date to assess the confidence we can have in global estimates of microplastic abundance and mass. We use a rigorous statistical framework to standardise a global dataset of plastic marine debris measured using surface-trawling plankton nets and couple this with three different ocean circulation models to spatially interpolate the observations. Our estimates show that the accumulated number of microplastic particles in 2014 ranges from 15 to 51 trillion particles, weighing between 93 and 236 thousand metric tons. A large fraction of the uncertainty in these estimates comes from sparse sampling in coastal and Southern Hemisphere regions. We then use this global distribution of small floating plastic debris to map out where in the ocean the risk to marine life (in particular seabirds and plankton growth) is greatest, using a quantitative risk framework. We show that the largest risk occurs not necessarily in regions of high plastic concentration, but rather in regions of extensive foraging with medium-high plastic concentrations such as coastal upwelling regions and the Southern Ocean. Finally, we use the estimates of distribution to investigate where in the ocean plastic can most optimally be removed, assuming hypothetical clean-up booms following the ideas from The Ocean Cleanup project. We show that mitigation of the plastic problem can most aptly be done near coastlines, particularly in Asia, rather than in the centres of the gyres. Based on these results, we propose more focus on the coastal zones when

  20. Global Hail Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, A.; Sanderson, M.; Hand, W.; Blyth, A.; Groenemeijer, P.; Kunz, M.; Puskeiler, M.; Saville, G.; Michel, G.

    2012-04-01

    Hail risk models are rare for the insurance industry. This is opposed to the fact that average annual hail losses can be large and hail dominates losses for many motor portfolios worldwide. Insufficient observational data, high spatio-temporal variability and data inhomogenity have hindered creation of credible models so far. In January 2012, a selected group of hail experts met at Willis in London in order to discuss ways to model hail risk at various scales. Discussions aimed at improving our understanding of hail occurrence and severity, and covered recent progress in the understanding of microphysical processes and climatological behaviour and hail vulnerability. The final outcome of the meeting was the formation of a global hail risk model initiative and the launch of a realistic global hail model in order to assess hail loss occurrence and severities for the globe. The following projects will be tackled: Microphysics of Hail and hail severity measures: Understand the physical drivers of hail and hailstone size development in different regions on the globe. Proposed factors include updraft and supercooled liquid water content in the troposphere. What are the thresholds drivers of hail formation around the globe? Hail Climatology: Consider ways to build a realistic global climatological set of hail events based on physical parameters including spatial variations in total availability of moisture, aerosols, among others, and using neural networks. Vulnerability, Exposure, and financial model: Use historical losses and event footprints available in the insurance market to approximate fragility distributions and damage potential for various hail sizes for property, motor, and agricultural business. Propagate uncertainty distributions and consider effects of policy conditions along with aggregating and disaggregating exposure and losses. This presentation provides an overview of ideas and tasks that lead towards a comprehensive global understanding of hail risk for

  1. Global Mangrove Forests Distribution, 2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Mangrove Forests Distribution, 2000 data set is a compilation of the extent of mangroves forests from the Global Land Survey and the Landsat archive with...

  2. Global nuclear material control model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dreicer, J.S.; Rutherford, D.A.

    1996-01-01

    The nuclear danger can be reduced by a system for global management, protection, control, and accounting as part of a disposition program for special nuclear materials. The development of an international fissile material management and control regime requires conceptual research supported by an analytical and modeling tool that treats the nuclear fuel cycle as a complete system. Such a tool must represent the fundamental data, information, and capabilities of the fuel cycle including an assessment of the global distribution of military and civilian fissile material inventories, a representation of the proliferation pertinent physical processes, and a framework supportive of national or international perspective. They have developed a prototype global nuclear material management and control systems analysis capability, the Global Nuclear Material Control (GNMC) model. The GNMC model establishes the framework for evaluating the global production, disposition, and safeguards and security requirements for fissile nuclear material

  3. Climate Controls AM Fungal Distributions from Global to Local Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kivlin, S. N.; Hawkes, C.; Muscarella, R.; Treseder, K. K.; Kazenel, M.; Lynn, J.; Rudgers, J.

    2016-12-01

    Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi have key functions in terrestrial biogeochemical processes; thus, determining the relative importance of climate, edaphic factors, and plant community composition on their geographic distributions can improve predictions of their sensitivity to global change. Local adaptation by AM fungi to plant hosts, soil nutrients, and climate suggests that all of these factors may control fungal geographic distributions, but their relative importance is unknown. We created species distribution models for 142 AM fungal taxa at the global scale with data from GenBank. We compared climate variables (BioClim and soil moisture), edaphic variables (phosphorus, carbon, pH, and clay content), and plant variables using model selection on models with (1) all variables, (2) climatic variables only (including soil moisture) and (3) resource-related variables only (all other soil parameters and NPP) using the MaxEnt algorithm evaluated with ENMEval. We also evaluated whether drivers of AM fungal distributions were phylogenetically conserved. To test whether global correlates of AM fungal distributions were reflected at local scales, we then surveyed AM fungi in nine plant hosts along three elevation gradients in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA. At the global scale, the distributions of 55% of AM fungal taxa were affected by both climate and soil resources, whereas 16% were only affected by climate and 29% were only affected by soil resources. Even for AM fungi that were affected by both climate and resources, the effects of climatic variables nearly always outweighed those of resources. Soil moisture and isothermality were the main climatic and NPP and soil carbon the main resource related factors influencing AM fungal distributions. Distributions of closely related AM fungal taxa were similarly affected by climate, but not by resources. Local scale surveys of AM fungi across elevations confirmed that climate was a key driver of AM fungal

  4. Modeling global distribution of agricultural insecticides in surface waters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ippolito, Alessio; Kattwinkel, Mira; Rasmussen, Jes J; Schäfer, Ralf B; Fornaroli, Riccardo; Liess, Matthias

    2015-03-01

    Agricultural insecticides constitute a major driver of animal biodiversity loss in freshwater ecosystems. However, the global extent of their effects and the spatial extent of exposure remain largely unknown. We applied a spatially explicit model to estimate the potential for agricultural insecticide runoff into streams. Water bodies within 40% of the global land surface were at risk of insecticide runoff. We separated the influence of natural factors and variables under human control determining insecticide runoff. In the northern hemisphere, insecticide runoff presented a latitudinal gradient mainly driven by insecticide application rate; in the southern hemisphere, a combination of daily rainfall intensity, terrain slope, agricultural intensity and insecticide application rate determined the process. The model predicted the upper limit of observed insecticide exposure measured in water bodies (n = 82) in five different countries reasonably well. The study provides a global map of hotspots for insecticide contamination guiding future freshwater management and conservation efforts. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Global pyrogeography: the current and future distribution of wildfire.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meg A Krawchuk

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade. We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research

  6. Global pyrogeography: the current and future distribution of wildfire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krawchuk, Meg A; Moritz, Max A; Parisien, Marc-André; Van Dorn, Jeff; Hayhoe, Katharine

    2009-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global

  7. Exploring the role of movement in determining the global distribution of marine biomass using a coupled hydrodynamic - Size-based ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, James R.; Stock, Charles A.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2015-11-01

    Modeling the dynamics of marine populations at a global scale - from phytoplankton to fish - is necessary if we are to quantify how climate change and other broad-scale anthropogenic actions affect the supply of marine-based food. Here, we estimate the abundance and distribution of fish biomass using a simple size-based food web model coupled to simulations of global ocean physics and biogeochemistry. We focus on the spatial distribution of biomass, identifying highly productive regions - shelf seas, western boundary currents and major upwelling zones. In the absence of fishing, we estimate the total ocean fish biomass to be ∼ 2.84 ×109 tonnes, similar to previous estimates. However, this value is sensitive to the choice of parameters, and further, allowing fish to move had a profound impact on the spatial distribution of fish biomass and the structure of marine communities. In particular, when movement is implemented the viable range of large predators is greatly increased, and stunted biomass spectra characterizing large ocean regions in simulations without movement, are replaced with expanded spectra that include large predators. These results highlight the importance of considering movement in global-scale ecological models.

  8. Inferential monitoring of global change impact on biodiversity through remote sensing and species distribution modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sangermano, Florencia

    2009-12-01

    The world is suffering from rapid changes in both climate and land cover which are the main factors affecting global biodiversity. These changes may affect ecosystems by altering species distributions, population sizes, and community compositions, which emphasizes the need for a rapid assessment of biodiversity status for conservation and management purposes. Current approaches on monitoring biodiversity rely mainly on long term observations of predetermined sites, which require large amounts of time, money and personnel to be executed. In order to overcome problems associated with current field monitoring methods, the main objective of this dissertation is the development of framework for inferential monitoring of the impact of global change on biodiversity based on remotely sensed data coupled with species distribution modeling techniques. Several research pieces were performed independently in order to fulfill this goal. First, species distribution modeling was used to identify the ranges of 6362 birds, mammals and amphibians in South America. Chapter 1 compares the power of different presence-only species distribution methods for modeling distributions of species with different response curves to environmental gradients and sample sizes. It was found that there is large variability in the power of the methods for modeling habitat suitability and species ranges, showing the importance of performing, when possible, a preliminary gradient analysis of the species distribution before selecting the method to be used. Chapter 2 presents a new methodology for the redefinition of species range polygons. Using a method capable of establishing the uncertainty in the definition of existing range polygons, the automated procedure identifies the relative importance of bioclimatic variables for the species, predicts their ranges and generates a quality assessment report to explore prediction errors. Analysis using independent validation data shows the power of this

  9. Spatio-temporal distribution of global solar radiation for Mexico using GOES data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonifaz, R.; Cuahutle, M.; Valdes, M.; Riveros, D.

    2013-05-01

    Increased need of sustainable and renewable energies around the world requires studies about the amount and distribution of such types of energies. Global solar radiation distribution in space and time is a key component on order to know the availability of the energy for different applications. Using GOES hourly data, the heliosat model was implemented for Mexico. Details about the model and its components are discussed step by stem an once obtained the global solar radiation images, different time datasets (hourly, daily, monthly and seasonal) were built in order to know the spatio-temporal behavior of this type of energy. Preliminary maps of the available solar global radiation energy for Mexico are presented, the amount and variation of the solar radiation by regions are analyzed and discussed. Future work includes a better parametrization of the model using calibrated ground stations data and more use of more complex models for better results.

  10. Global Dynamics of Infectious Disease with Arbitrary Distributed Infectious Period on Complex Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoguang Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of the current epidemic models assume that the infectious period follows an exponential distribution. However, due to individual heterogeneity and epidemic diversity, these models fail to describe the distribution of infectious periods precisely. We establish a SIS epidemic model with multistaged progression of infectious periods on complex networks, which can be used to characterize arbitrary distributions of infectious periods of the individuals. By using mathematical analysis, the basic reproduction number R0 for the model is derived. We verify that the R0 depends on the average distributions of infection periods for different types of infective individuals, which extend the general theory obtained from the single infectious period epidemic models. It is proved that if R0<1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; otherwise the unique endemic equilibrium exists such that it is globally asymptotically attractive. Finally numerical simulations hold for the validity of our theoretical results is given.

  11. Technical Note: Method of Morris effectively reduces the computational demands of global sensitivity analysis for distributed watershed models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. D. Herman

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The increase in spatially distributed hydrologic modeling warrants a corresponding increase in diagnostic methods capable of analyzing complex models with large numbers of parameters. Sobol' sensitivity analysis has proven to be a valuable tool for diagnostic analyses of hydrologic models. However, for many spatially distributed models, the Sobol' method requires a prohibitive number of model evaluations to reliably decompose output variance across the full set of parameters. We investigate the potential of the method of Morris, a screening-based sensitivity approach, to provide results sufficiently similar to those of the Sobol' method at a greatly reduced computational expense. The methods are benchmarked on the Hydrology Laboratory Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM over a six-month period in the Blue River watershed, Oklahoma, USA. The Sobol' method required over six million model evaluations to ensure reliable sensitivity indices, corresponding to more than 30 000 computing hours and roughly 180 gigabytes of storage space. We find that the method of Morris is able to correctly screen the most and least sensitive parameters with 300 times fewer model evaluations, requiring only 100 computing hours and 1 gigabyte of storage space. The method of Morris proves to be a promising diagnostic approach for global sensitivity analysis of highly parameterized, spatially distributed hydrologic models.

  12. Global Volcano Mortality Risks and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Volcano Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid representing global volcano mortality risks. The data set was constructed using historical...

  13. Global heating distributions for January 1979 calculated from GLA assimilated and simulated model-based datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaack, Todd K.; Lenzen, Allen J.; Johnson, Donald R.

    1991-01-01

    This study surveys the large-scale distribution of heating for January 1979 obtained from five sources of information. Through intercomparison of these distributions, with emphasis on satellite-derived information, an investigation is conducted into the global distribution of atmospheric heating and the impact of observations on the diagnostic estimates of heating derived from assimilated datasets. The results indicate a substantial impact of satellite information on diagnostic estimates of heating in regions where there is a scarcity of conventional observations. The addition of satellite data provides information on the atmosphere's temperature and wind structure that is important for estimation of the global distribution of heating and energy exchange.

  14. Global study of nuclear modifications on parton distribution functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rong Wang

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available A global analysis of nuclear medium modifications of parton distributions is presented using deeply inelastic scattering data of various nuclear targets. Two obtained data sets are provided for quark and gluon nuclear modification factors, referred as nIMParton16. One is from the global fit only to the experimental data of isospin-scalar nuclei (Set A, and the other is from the fit to all the measured nuclear data (Set B. The scale-dependence is described by DGLAP equations with nonlinear corrections in this work. The Fermi motion and off-shell effect, nucleon swelling, and parton–parton recombination are taken into account together for modeling the complicated x-dependence of nuclear modification. The nuclear gluon shadowing in this paper is dynamically generated by the QCD evolution of parton splitting and recombination processes with zero gluon density at the input scale. Sophisticated nuclear dependence of nuclear medium effects is studied with only two free parameters. With the obtained free parameters from the global analysis, the nuclear modifications of parton distribution functions of unmeasured nuclei can be predicted in our model. Nuclear modification of deuteron is also predicted and shown with recent measurement at JLab.

  15. Global Multihazard Mortality Risks and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Multihazard Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid identifying and characterizing the nature of multihazard risk at the global scale. For this...

  16. Global Drought Mortality Risks and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid of global drought mortality risks. Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3) data...

  17. Atlas of the global distribution of atmospheric heating during the global weather experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaack, Todd K.; Johnson, Donald R.

    1991-01-01

    Global distributions of atmospheric heating for the annual cycle of the Global Weather Experiment are estimated from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Level 3b data set. Distributions of monthly, seasonally, and annually averaged heating are presented for isentropic and isobaric layers within the troposphere and for the troposphere as a whole. The distributions depict a large-scale structure of atmospheric heating that appears spatially and temporally consistent with known features of the global circulation and the seasonal evolution.

  18. Climate Science's Globally Distributed Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, D. N.

    2016-12-01

    The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) is primarily funded by the Department of Energy's (DOE's) Office of Science (the Office of Biological and Environmental Research [BER] Climate Data Informatics Program and the Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research Next Generation Network for Science Program), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF), the European Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System Modeling (IS-ENES), and the Australian National University (ANU). Support also comes from other U.S. federal and international agencies. The federation works across multiple worldwide data centers and spans seven international network organizations to provide users with the ability to access, analyze, and visualize data using a globally federated collection of networks, computers, and software. Its architecture employs a series of geographically distributed peer nodes that are independently administered and united by common federation protocols and application programming interfaces (APIs). The full ESGF infrastructure has now been adopted by multiple Earth science projects and allows access to petabytes of geophysical data, including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP; output used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports), multiple model intercomparison projects (MIPs; endorsed by the World Climate Research Programme [WCRP]), and the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME; ESGF is included in the overarching ACME workflow process to store model output). ESGF is a successful example of integration of disparate open-source technologies into a cohesive functional system that serves the needs the global climate science community. Data served by ESGF includes not only model output but also observational data from satellites and instruments, reanalysis, and generated images.

  19. A model for global cycling of tritium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Killough, G.G.; Kocher, D.C.

    1988-01-01

    Dynamic compartment models are widely used to describe global cycling of radionuclides for purposes of dose estimation. In this paper the authors present a new global tritium model that reproduces environmental time-series data on concentrations in precipitation, ocean surface waters, and surface fresh waters in the northern hemisphere, concentrations of atmospheric tritium in the southern hemisphere, and the latitude dependence of tritium in both hemispheres. Names TRICYCLE (for TRItium CYCLE) the model is based on the global hydrologic cycle and includes hemispheric stratospheric compartments, disaggregation of the troposphere and ocean surface waters into eight latitude zones, consideration of the different concentrations of atmospheric tritium over land and over the ocean, and a diffusive model for transport in the ocean. TRICYCLE reproduces the environmental data if it is assumed that about 50% of the tritium from atmospheric weapons testing was injected directly into the northern stratosphere as HTO. The model's latitudinal disaggregation permits taking into account the distribution of population. For a uniformly distributed release of HTO into the worldwide troposphere, TRICYCLE predicts a collective dose commitment to the world population that exceeds the NCRP model's corresponding prediction by a factor of three

  20. A model for global cycling of tritium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Killough, G.G.; Kocher, D.C.

    1988-01-01

    Dynamic compartment models are widely used to describe global cycling of radionuclides for purposes of dose estimation. In this paper, we present a new global tritium model that reproduces environmental time-series data on concentrations in precipitation, ocean surface waters, and surface fresh waters in the northern hemisphere, concentrations of atmospheric tritium in the soutehrn hemisphere, and the latitude dependence of tritium in both hemispheres. Named TRICYCLE for Tritium CYCLE, the model is based on the global hydrologic cycle and includes hemisphereic stratospheric compartments, disaggregation of the troposphere and ocean surface waters into eight latitudezones, consideration of the different concentrations of atmospheric tritium over land and over the ocean, and a diffusive model for transport in the ocean. TRICYCLE reproduces the environmental data if we assume that about 50% of the tritium from atmospheric weapons testing was injected directly into the northern stratosphere as HTO. The models latitudinal disaggregation permits taking into account the distribution of population. For a unfiormaly distributed release of HTO into the worldwide troposphere, TRICYCLE predicts a collective dose commitment to the world population that exceeds the corresponding prediction by the NCRP model by about a factor of 3. 11 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  1. Global model analysis of negative ion generation in low-pressure inductively coupled hydrogen plasmas with bi-Maxwellian electron energy distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huh, Sung-Ryul; Kim, Nam-Kyun; Jung, Bong-Ki; Chung, Kyoung-Jae; Hwang, Yong-Seok; Kim, Gon-Ho

    2015-01-01

    A global model was developed to investigate the densities of negative ions and the other species in a low-pressure inductively coupled hydrogen plasma with a bi-Maxwellian electron energy distribution. Compared to a Maxwellian plasma, bi-Maxwellian plasmas have higher populations of low-energy electrons and highly vibrationally excited hydrogen molecules that are generated efficiently by high-energy electrons. This leads to a higher reaction rate of the dissociative electron attachment responsible for negative ion production. The model indicated that the bi-Maxwellian electron energy distribution at low pressures is favorable for the creation of negative ions. In addition, the electron temperature, electron density, and negative ion density calculated using the model were compared with the experimental data. In the low-pressure regime, the model results of the bi-Maxwellian electron energy distributions agreed well quantitatively with the experimental measurements, unlike those of the assumed Maxwellian electron energy distributions that had discrepancies

  2. Investigating Solution Convergence in a Global Ocean Model Using a 2048-Processor Cluster of Distributed Shared Memory Machines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Hill

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Up to 1920 processors of a cluster of distributed shared memory machines at the NASA Ames Research Center are being used to simulate ocean circulation globally at horizontal resolutions of 1/4, 1/8, and 1/16-degree with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model, a finite volume code that can scale to large numbers of processors. The study aims to understand physical processes responsible for skill improvements as resolution is increased and to gain insight into what resolution is sufficient for particular purposes. This paper focuses on the computational aspects of reaching the technical objective of efficiently performing these global eddy-resolving ocean simulations. At 1/16-degree resolution the model grid contains 1.2 billion cells. At this resolution it is possible to simulate approximately one month of ocean dynamics in about 17 hours of wallclock time with a model timestep of two minutes on a cluster of four 512-way NUMA Altix systems. The Altix systems' large main memory and I/O subsystems allow computation and disk storage of rich sets of diagnostics during each integration, supporting the scientific objective to develop a better understanding of global ocean circulation model solution convergence as model resolution is increased.

  3. 32Si as natural tracer : measurement, global distribution and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgenstern, U.

    1997-01-01

    Cosmogenic 32 Si (half-life 140 years) can be applied to the study of environmental circulation processes in the time range of the last 1000 years, a key period for modelling past climate change. Its non-gaseous nature and fairly constant production rate are favourable to quantifying its roe in environmental processes. Applications of 32 Si method were limited due to uncertainties in half-life and poor knowledge of its global distribution, and to its very small natural concentration. Recent developments concerning these problems will be presented with special emphasis to measurement and global distribution, and to application in study of groundwater recharge and flow, glacier dynamics, soil erosion rates and sedimentation in lakes and oceans. (author)

  4. Data-mining analysis of the global distribution of soil carbon in observational databases and Earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashimoto, Shoji; Nanko, Kazuki; Ťupek, Boris; Lehtonen, Aleksi

    2017-03-01

    Future climate change will dramatically change the carbon balance in the soil, and this change will affect the terrestrial carbon stock and the climate itself. Earth system models (ESMs) are used to understand the current climate and to project future climate conditions, but the soil organic carbon (SOC) stock simulated by ESMs and those of observational databases are not well correlated when the two are compared at fine grid scales. However, the specific key processes and factors, as well as the relationships among these factors that govern the SOC stock, remain unclear; the inclusion of such missing information would improve the agreement between modeled and observational data. In this study, we sought to identify the influential factors that govern global SOC distribution in observational databases, as well as those simulated by ESMs. We used a data-mining (machine-learning) (boosted regression trees - BRT) scheme to identify the factors affecting the SOC stock. We applied BRT scheme to three observational databases and 15 ESM outputs from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and examined the effects of 13 variables/factors categorized into five groups (climate, soil property, topography, vegetation, and land-use history). Globally, the contributions of mean annual temperature, clay content, carbon-to-nitrogen (CN) ratio, wetland ratio, and land cover were high in observational databases, whereas the contributions of the mean annual temperature, land cover, and net primary productivity (NPP) were predominant in the SOC distribution in ESMs. A comparison of the influential factors at a global scale revealed that the most distinct differences between the SOCs from the observational databases and ESMs were the low clay content and CN ratio contributions, and the high NPP contribution in the ESMs. The results of this study will aid in identifying the causes of the current mismatches between observational SOC databases and ESM outputs

  5. Assessing water resources in Azerbaijan using a local distributed model forced and constrained with global data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouaziz, Laurène; Hegnauer, Mark; Schellekens, Jaap; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; ten Velden, Corine

    2017-04-01

    In many countries, data is scarce, incomplete and often not easily shared. In these cases, global satellite and reanalysis data provide an alternative to assess water resources. To assess water resources in Azerbaijan, a completely distributed and physically based hydrological wflow-sbm model was set-up for the entire Kura basin. We used SRTM elevation data, a locally available river map and one from OpenStreetMap to derive the drainage direction network at the model resolution of approximately 1x1 km. OpenStreetMap data was also used to derive the fraction of paved area per cell to account for the reduced infiltration capacity (c.f. Schellekens et al. 2014). We used the results of a global study to derive root zone capacity based on climate data (Wang-Erlandsson et al., 2016). To account for the variation in vegetation cover over the year, monthly averages of Leaf Area Index, based on MODIS data, were used. For the soil-related parameters, we used global estimates as provided by Dai et al. (2013). This enabled the rapid derivation of a first estimate of parameter values for our hydrological model. Digitized local meteorological observations were scarce and available only for limited time period. Therefore several sources of global meteorological data were evaluated: (1) EU-WATCH global precipitation, temperature and derived potential evaporation for the period 1958-2001 (Harding et al., 2011), (2) WFDEI precipitation, temperature and derived potential evaporation for the period 1979-2014 (by Weedon et al., 2014), (3) MSWEP precipitation (Beck et al., 2016) and (4) local precipitation data from more than 200 stations in the Kura basin were available from the NOAA website for a period up to 1991. The latter, together with data archives from Azerbaijan, were used as a benchmark to evaluate the global precipitation datasets for the overlapping period 1958-1991. By comparing the datasets, we found that monthly mean precipitation of EU-WATCH and WFDEI coincided well

  6. Global and local emission impact assessment of distributed cogeneration systems with partial-load models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mancarella, Pierluigi; Chicco, Gianfranco

    2009-01-01

    Small-scale distributed cogeneration technologies represent a key resource to increase generation efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions with respect to conventional separate production means. However, the diffusion of distributed cogeneration within urban areas, where air quality standards are quite stringent, brings about environmental concerns on a local level. In addition, partial-load emission worsening is often overlooked, which could lead to biased evaluations of the energy system environmental performance. In this paper, a comprehensive emission assessment framework suitable for addressing distributed cogeneration systems is formulated. Local and global emission impact models are presented to identify upper and lower boundary values of the environmental pressure from pollutants that would be emitted from reference technologies, to be compared to the actual emissions from distributed cogeneration. This provides synthetic information on the relative environmental impact from small-scale CHP sources, useful for general indicative and non-site-specific studies. The emission models are formulated according to an electrical output-based emission factor approach, through which off-design operation and relevant performance are easily accounted for. In particular, in order to address the issues that could arise under off-design operation, an equivalent load model is incorporated within the proposed framework, by exploiting the duration curve of the cogenerator loading and the emissions associated to each loading level. In this way, it is possible to quantify the contribution to the emissions from cogeneration systems that might operate at partial loads for a significant portion of their operation time, as for instance in load-tracking applications. Suitability of the proposed methodology is discussed with respect to hazardous air pollutants such as NO x and CO, as well as to greenhouse gases such as CO 2 . Two case study applications based on the emission

  7. Using E-markets for Globally Distributed Work

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Hillegersberg, Jos; Amrit, Chintan Amrit; Oshri, Ilan; Kotlarsky, Julia; Willcocks, Leslie P.

    2015-01-01

    For over a decade, dedicated E-markets have been facilitating globally distributed systems development by enhancing the traditionally high-risk global sourcing processes. At the same time, the success and potential of E-markets for sourcing project globally can be questioned, as E-markets embody a

  8. Retrieving global aerosol sources from satellites using inverse modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Dubovik

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding aerosol effects on global climate requires knowing the global distribution of tropospheric aerosols. By accounting for aerosol sources, transports, and removal processes, chemical transport models simulate the global aerosol distribution using archived meteorological fields. We develop an algorithm for retrieving global aerosol sources from satellite observations of aerosol distribution by inverting the GOCART aerosol transport model.

    The inversion is based on a generalized, multi-term least-squares-type fitting, allowing flexible selection and refinement of a priori algorithm constraints. For example, limitations can be placed on retrieved quantity partial derivatives, to constrain global aerosol emission space and time variability in the results. Similarities and differences between commonly used inverse modeling and remote sensing techniques are analyzed. To retain the high space and time resolution of long-period, global observational records, the algorithm is expressed using adjoint operators.

    Successful global aerosol emission retrievals at 2°×2.5 resolution were obtained by inverting GOCART aerosol transport model output, assuming constant emissions over the diurnal cycle, and neglecting aerosol compositional differences. In addition, fine and coarse mode aerosol emission sources were inverted separately from MODIS fine and coarse mode aerosol optical thickness data, respectively. These assumptions are justified, based on observational coverage and accuracy limitations, producing valuable aerosol source locations and emission strengths. From two weeks of daily MODIS observations during August 2000, the global placement of fine mode aerosol sources agreed with available independent knowledge, even though the inverse method did not use any a priori information about aerosol sources, and was initialized with a "zero aerosol emission" assumption. Retrieving coarse mode aerosol emissions was less successful

  9. Thermal oxidative degradation kinetics of agricultural residues using distributed activation energy model and global kinetic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Xiu'e; Chen, Jianbiao; Li, Gang; Wang, Yanhong; Lang, Xuemei; Fan, Shuanshi

    2018-08-01

    The study concerned the thermal oxidative degradation kinetics of agricultural residues, peanut shell (PS) and sunflower shell (SS). The thermal behaviors were evaluated via thermogravimetric analysis and the kinetic parameters were determined by using distributed activation energy model (DAEM) and global kinetic model (GKM). Results showed that thermal oxidative decomposition of two samples processed in three zones; the ignition, burnout, and comprehensive combustibility between two agricultural residues were of great difference; and the combustion performance could be improved by boosting heating rate. The activation energy ranges calculated by the DAEM for the thermal oxidative degradation of PS and SS were 88.94-145.30 kJ mol -1 and 94.86-169.18 kJ mol -1 , respectively. The activation energy obtained by the GKM for the oxidative decomposition of hemicellulose and cellulose was obviously lower than that for the lignin oxidation at identical heating rate. To some degree, the determined kinetic parameters could acceptably simulate experimental data. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Prediction of monthly average global solar radiation based on statistical distribution of clearness index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayodele, T.R.; Ogunjuyigbe, A.S.O.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, probability distribution of clearness index is proposed for the prediction of global solar radiation. First, the clearness index is obtained from the past data of global solar radiation, then, the parameters of the appropriate distribution that best fit the clearness index are determined. The global solar radiation is thereafter predicted from the clearness index using inverse transformation of the cumulative distribution function. To validate the proposed method, eight years global solar radiation data (2000–2007) of Ibadan, Nigeria are used to determine the parameters of appropriate probability distribution for clearness index. The calculated parameters are then used to predict the future monthly average global solar radiation for the following year (2008). The predicted values are compared with the measured values using four statistical tests: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), MAE (Mean Absolute Error), MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) and the coefficient of determination (R"2). The proposed method is also compared to the existing regression models. The results show that logistic distribution provides the best fit for clearness index of Ibadan and the proposed method is effective in predicting the monthly average global solar radiation with overall RMSE of 0.383 MJ/m"2/day, MAE of 0.295 MJ/m"2/day, MAPE of 2% and R"2 of 0.967. - Highlights: • Distribution of clearnes index is proposed for prediction of global solar radiation. • The clearness index is obtained from the past data of global solar radiation. • The parameters of distribution that best fit the clearness index are determined. • Solar radiation is predicted from the clearness index using inverse transformation. • The method is effective in predicting the monthly average global solar radiation.

  11. Mapping the Global Potential Geographical Distribution of Black Locust (Robinia Pseudoacacia L. Using Herbarium Data and a Maximum Entropy Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoqing Li

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L. is a tree species of high economic and ecological value, but is also considered to be highly invasive. Understanding the global potential distribution and ecological characteristics of this species is a prerequisite for its practical exploitation as a resource. Here, a maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt was used to simulate the potential distribution of this species around the world, and the dominant climatic factors affecting its distribution were selected by using a jackknife test and the regularized gain change during each iteration of the training algorithm. The results show that the MaxEnt model performs better than random, with an average test AUC value of 0.9165 (±0.0088. The coldness index, annual mean temperature and warmth index were the most important climatic factors affecting the species distribution, explaining 65.79% of the variability in the geographical distribution. Species response curves showed unimodal relationships with the annual mean temperature and warmth index, whereas there was a linear relationship with the coldness index. The dominant climatic conditions in the core of the black locust distribution are a coldness index of −9.8 °C–0 °C, an annual mean temperature of 5.8 °C–14.5 °C, a warmth index of 66 °C–168 °C and an annual precipitation of 508–1867 mm. The potential distribution of black locust is located mainly in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Switzerland, Australia, New Zealand, China, Japan, South Korea, South Africa, Chile and Argentina. The predictive map of black locust, climatic thresholds and species response curves can provide globally applicable guidelines and valuable information for policymakers and planners involved in the introduction, planting and invasion control of this species around the world.

  12. Management of Globally Distributed Component-Based Software Development Projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Kotlarsky (Julia)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractGlobally Distributed Component-Based Development (GD CBD) is expected to become a promising area, as increasing numbers of companies are setting up software development in a globally distributed environment and at the same time are adopting CBD methodologies. Being an emerging area, the

  13. Mapping the global distribution of livestock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Timothy P; Wint, G R William; Conchedda, Giulia; Van Boeckel, Thomas P; Ercoli, Valentina; Palamara, Elisa; Cinardi, Giuseppina; D'Aietti, Laura; Hay, Simon I; Gilbert, Marius

    2014-01-01

    Livestock contributes directly to the livelihoods and food security of almost a billion people and affects the diet and health of many more. With estimated standing populations of 1.43 billion cattle, 1.87 billion sheep and goats, 0.98 billion pigs, and 19.60 billion chickens, reliable and accessible information on the distribution and abundance of livestock is needed for a many reasons. These include analyses of the social and economic aspects of the livestock sector; the environmental impacts of livestock such as the production and management of waste, greenhouse gas emissions and livestock-related land-use change; and large-scale public health and epidemiological investigations. The Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW) database, produced in 2007, provided modelled livestock densities of the world, adjusted to match official (FAOSTAT) national estimates for the reference year 2005, at a spatial resolution of 3 minutes of arc (about 5×5 km at the equator). Recent methodological improvements have significantly enhanced these distributions: more up-to date and detailed sub-national livestock statistics have been collected; a new, higher resolution set of predictor variables is used; and the analytical procedure has been revised and extended to include a more systematic assessment of model accuracy and the representation of uncertainties associated with the predictions. This paper describes the current approach in detail and presents new global distribution maps at 1 km resolution for cattle, pigs and chickens, and a partial distribution map for ducks. These digital layers are made publically available via the Livestock Geo-Wiki (http://www.livestock.geo-wiki.org), as will be the maps of other livestock types as they are produced.

  14. Global Earthquake Hazard Frequency and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Earthquake Hazard Frequency and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid utilizing Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) Earthquake Catalog data of actual...

  15. Global Drought Hazard Frequency and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Hazard Frequency and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid based upon the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction's (IRI) Weighted Anomaly...

  16. Global distribution of mean age of stratospheric air from MIPAS SF6 measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Fischer

    2008-02-01

    confirm that SF6 is destroyed in the mesosphere to a considerable degree. Model calculations with the Karlsruhe simulation model of the middle atmosphere (KASIMA chemical transport model agree well with observed global distributions of the mean age only if the SF6 sink reactions in the mesosphere are included in the model.

  17. Global nuclear material flow/control model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dreicer, J.S.; Rutherford, D.S.; Fasel, P.K.; Riese, J.M.

    1997-01-01

    This is the final report of a two-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The nuclear danger can be reduced by a system for global management, protection, control, and accounting as part of an international regime for nuclear materials. The development of an international fissile material management and control regime requires conceptual research supported by an analytical and modeling tool which treats the nuclear fuel cycle as a complete system. The prototype model developed visually represents the fundamental data, information, and capabilities related to the nuclear fuel cycle in a framework supportive of national or an international perspective. This includes an assessment of the global distribution of military and civilian fissile material inventories, a representation of the proliferation pertinent physical processes, facility specific geographic identification, and the capability to estimate resource requirements for the management and control of nuclear material. The model establishes the foundation for evaluating the global production, disposition, and safeguards and security requirements for fissile nuclear material and supports the development of other pertinent algorithmic capabilities necessary to undertake further global nuclear material related studies

  18. Estimating the daily global solar radiation spatial distribution from diurnal temperature ranges over the Tibetan Plateau in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pan, Tao; Wu, Shaohong; Dai, Erfu; Liu, Yujie

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Bristow–Campbell model was calibrated and validated over the Tibetan Plateau. ► Develop a simple method to rasterise the daily global solar radiation and get gridded information. ► The daily global solar radiation spatial distribution over the Tibetan Plateau was estimated. - Abstract: Daily global solar radiation is fundamental to most ecological and biophysical processes because it plays a key role in the local and global energy budget. However, gridded information about the spatial distribution of solar radiation is limited. This study aims to parameterise the Bristow–Campbell model for the daily global solar radiation estimation in the Tibetan Plateau and propose a method to rasterise the daily global solar radiation. Observed daily solar radiation and diurnal temperature data from eleven stations over the Tibetan Plateau during 1971–2010 were used to calibrate and validate the Bristow–Campbell radiation model. The extra-terrestrial radiation and clear sky atmospheric transmittance were calculated on a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform. Results show that the Bristow–Campbell model performs well after adjusting the parameters, the average Pearson’s correlation coefficients (r), Nash–Sutcliffe equation (NSE), ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR), and root mean-square error (RMSE) of 11 stations are 0.85, 2.81 MJ m −2 day −1 , 0.3 and 0.77 respectively. Gridded maximum and minimum average temperature data were obtained using Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) and validated by the Chinese Ecosystem Research Network (CERN) stations’ data. The spatial daily global solar radiation distribution pattern was estimated and analysed by combining the solar radiation model (Bristow–Campbell model) and meteorological interpolation model (PRISM). Based on the overall results, it can be concluded that a calibrated Bristow–Campbell performs well

  19. Global carbon monoxide vertical distributions from spaceborne high-resolution FTIR nadir measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Barret

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the first global distributions of CO vertical profiles retrieved from a thermal infrared FTS working in the nadir geometry. It is based on the exploitation of the high resolution and high quality spectra measured by the Interferometric Monitor of Greenhouse gases (IMG which flew onboard the Japanese ADEOS platform in 1996-1997. The retrievals are performed with an algorithm based on the Optimal Estimation Method (OEM and are characterized in terms of vertical sensitivity and error budget. It is found that most of the IMG measurements contain between 1.5 and 2.2 independent pieces of information about the vertical distribution of CO from the lower troposphere to the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS. The retrievals are validated against coincident NOAA/CMDL in situ surface measurements and NDSC/FTIR total columns measurements. The retrieved global distributions of CO are also found to be in good agreement with the distributions modeled by the GEOS-CHEM 3D CTM, highlighting the ability of IMG to capture the horizontal as well as the vertical structure of the CO distributions.

  20. The global distribution of diet breadth in insect herbivores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forister, Matthew L; Novotny, Vojtech; Panorska, Anna K; Baje, Leontine; Basset, Yves; Butterill, Philip T; Cizek, Lukas; Coley, Phyllis D; Dem, Francesca; Diniz, Ivone R; Drozd, Pavel; Fox, Mark; Glassmire, Andrea E; Hazen, Rebecca; Hrcek, Jan; Jahner, Joshua P; Kaman, Ondrej; Kozubowski, Tomasz J; Kursar, Thomas A; Lewis, Owen T; Lill, John; Marquis, Robert J; Miller, Scott E; Morais, Helena C; Murakami, Masashi; Nickel, Herbert; Pardikes, Nicholas A; Ricklefs, Robert E; Singer, Michael S; Smilanich, Angela M; Stireman, John O; Villamarín-Cortez, Santiago; Vodka, Stepan; Volf, Martin; Wagner, David L; Walla, Thomas; Weiblen, George D; Dyer, Lee A

    2015-01-13

    Understanding variation in resource specialization is important for progress on issues that include coevolution, community assembly, ecosystem processes, and the latitudinal gradient of species richness. Herbivorous insects are useful models for studying resource specialization, and the interaction between plants and herbivorous insects is one of the most common and consequential ecological associations on the planet. However, uncertainty persists regarding fundamental features of herbivore diet breadth, including its relationship to latitude and plant species richness. Here, we use a global dataset to investigate host range for over 7,500 insect herbivore species covering a wide taxonomic breadth and interacting with more than 2,000 species of plants in 165 families. We ask whether relatively specialized and generalized herbivores represent a dichotomy rather than a continuum from few to many host families and species attacked and whether diet breadth changes with increasing plant species richness toward the tropics. Across geographic regions and taxonomic subsets of the data, we find that the distribution of diet breadth is fit well by a discrete, truncated Pareto power law characterized by the predominance of specialized herbivores and a long, thin tail of more generalized species. Both the taxonomic and phylogenetic distributions of diet breadth shift globally with latitude, consistent with a higher frequency of specialized insects in tropical regions. We also find that more diverse lineages of plants support assemblages of relatively more specialized herbivores and that the global distribution of plant diversity contributes to but does not fully explain the latitudinal gradient in insect herbivore specialization.

  1. First Directly Retrieved Global Distribution of Tropospheric Column Ozone from GOME: Comparison with the GEOS-CHEM Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiong; Chance, Kelly; Sioris, Christopher E.; Kurosu, Thomas P.; Spurr, Robert J. D.; Martin, Randall V.; Fu, Tzung-May; Logan, Jennifer A.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Palmer, Paul I.; hide

    2006-01-01

    We present the first directly retrieved global distribution of tropospheric column ozone from Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) ultraviolet measurements during December 1996 to November 1997. The retrievals clearly show signals due to convection, biomass burning, stratospheric influence, pollution, and transport. They are capable of capturing the spatiotemporal evolution of tropospheric column ozone in response to regional or short time-scale events such as the 1997-1998 El Nino event and a 10-20 DU change within a few days. The global distribution of tropospheric column ozone displays the well-known wave-1 pattern in the tropics, nearly zonal bands of enhanced tropospheric column ozone of 36-48 DU at 20degS-30degS during the austral spring and at 25degN-45degN during the boreal spring and summer, low tropospheric column ozone of 33 DU at some northern high-latitudes during the spring. Simulation from a chemical transport model corroborates most of the above structures, with small biases of <+/-5 DU and consistent seasonal cycles in most regions, especially in the southern hemisphere. However, significant positive biases of 5-20 DU occur in some northern tropical and subtropical regions such as the Middle East during summer. Comparison of GOME with monthly-averaged Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapor by Airbus in-service Aircraft (MOZAIC) tropospheric column ozone for these regions usually shows good consistency within 1 a standard deviations and retrieval uncertainties. Some biases can be accounted for by inadequate sensitivity to lower tropospheric ozone, the different spatiotemporal sampling and the spatiotemporal variations in tropospheric column ozone.

  2. Distributed embedded controller development with petri nets application to globally-asynchronous locally-synchronous systems

    CERN Document Server

    Moutinho, Filipe de Carvalho

    2016-01-01

    This book describes a model-based development approach for globally-asynchronous locally-synchronous distributed embedded controllers.  This approach uses Petri nets as modeling formalism to create platform and network independent models supporting the use of design automation tools.  To support this development approach, the Petri nets class in use is extended with time-domains and asynchronous-channels. The authors’ approach uses models not only providing a better understanding of the distributed controller and improving the communication among the stakeholders, but also to be ready to support the entire lifecycle, including the simulation, the verification (using model-checking tools), the implementation (relying on automatic code generators), and the deployment of the distributed controller into specific platforms. Uses a graphical and intuitive modeling formalism supported by design automation tools; Enables verification, ensuring that the distributed controller was correctly specified; Provides flex...

  3. Globalization and the income distribution between the countries

    OpenAIRE

    Georgieva Svrtinov, Vesna; Gorgieva-Trajkovska, Olivera; Temjanovski, Riste

    2014-01-01

    Globalization is contested concept. In general, it is considered to be beneficial for the growth of economy. But, there are also many adverse effects of globalization on growth in many developing countries. It increases poverty and worsens the income distribution. Globalization has raised powerful debate between optimists and pessimists. There are pro and against globalization debates, with strong arguments in both sides. The objective of this paper is to analyze the relationship betwe...

  4. Response of the mean global vegetation distribution to interannual climate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Notaro, Michael [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research, Madison, WI (United States)

    2008-06-15

    The impact of interannual variability in temperature and precipitation on global terrestrial ecosystems is investigated using a dynamic global vegetation model driven by gridded climate observations for the twentieth century. Contrasting simulations are driven either by repeated mean climatology or raw climate data with interannual variability included. Interannual climate variability reduces net global vegetation cover, particularly over semi-arid regions, and favors the expansion of grass cover at the expense of tree cover, due to differences in growth rates, fire impacts, and interception. The area burnt by global fires is substantially enhanced by interannual precipitation variability. The current position of the central United States' ecotone, with forests to the east and grasslands to the west, is largely attributed to climate variability. Among woody vegetation, climate variability supports expanded deciduous forest growth and diminished evergreen forest growth, due to difference in bioclimatic limits, leaf longevity, interception rates, and rooting depth. These results offer insight into future ecosystem distributions since climate models generally predict an increase in climate variability and extremes. (orig.)

  5. Statistical distributions of optimal global alignment scores of random protein sequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tang Jiaowei

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The inference of homology from statistically significant sequence similarity is a central issue in sequence alignments. So far the statistical distribution function underlying the optimal global alignments has not been completely determined. Results In this study, random and real but unrelated sequences prepared in six different ways were selected as reference datasets to obtain their respective statistical distributions of global alignment scores. All alignments were carried out with the Needleman-Wunsch algorithm and optimal scores were fitted to the Gumbel, normal and gamma distributions respectively. The three-parameter gamma distribution performs the best as the theoretical distribution function of global alignment scores, as it agrees perfectly well with the distribution of alignment scores. The normal distribution also agrees well with the score distribution frequencies when the shape parameter of the gamma distribution is sufficiently large, for this is the scenario when the normal distribution can be viewed as an approximation of the gamma distribution. Conclusion We have shown that the optimal global alignment scores of random protein sequences fit the three-parameter gamma distribution function. This would be useful for the inference of homology between sequences whose relationship is unknown, through the evaluation of gamma distribution significance between sequences.

  6. Global model for the lithospheric strength and effective elastic thickness

    OpenAIRE

    Magdala Tesauro; Mikhail Kaban; S. A. P. L. Cloetingh

    2013-01-01

    Global distribution of the strength and effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithosphere are estimated using physical parameters from recent crustal and lithospheric models. For the Te estimation we apply a new approach, which provides a possibility to take into account variations of Young modulus (E) within the lithosphere. In view of the large uncertainties affecting strength estimates, we evaluate global strength and Te distributions for possible end-member ‘hard’ (HRM) and a ‘soft’ (SR...

  7. The impact of global warming on the range distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güizado-Rodríguez, Martha Anahí; Ballesteros-Barrera, Claudia; Casas-Andreu, Gustavo; Barradas-Miranda, Victor Luis; Téllez-Valdés, Oswaldo; Salgado-Ugarte, Isaías Hazarmabeth

    2012-12-01

    The ectothermic nature of reptiles makes them especially sensitive to global warming. Although climate change and its implications are a frequent topic of detailed studies, most of these studies are carried out without making a distinction between populations. Here we present the first study of an Aspidoscelis species that evaluates the effects of global warming on its distribution using ecological niche modeling. The aims of our study were (1) to understand whether predicted warmer climatic conditions affect the geographic potential distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata and (2) to identify potential altitudinal changes of these groups under global warming. We used the maximum entropy species distribution model (MaxEnt) to project the potential distributions expected for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080 under a single simulated climatic scenario. Our analysis suggests that some climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata will exhibit reductions and in others expansions in their distribution, with potential upward shifts toward higher elevation in response to climate warming. Different climatic groups were revealed in our analysis that subsequently showed heterogeneous responses to climatic change illustrating the complex nature of species geographic responses to environmental change and the importance of modeling climatic or geographic groups and/or populations instead of the entire species' range treated as a homogeneous entity.

  8. Global Distributions of {sup 137}Cs, {sup 239,240}Pu and the Ratio of {sup 239,240}Pu/{sup 137}Cs in an Ocean General Circulation Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsumune, D.; Tsubono, T.; Misumi, K.; Yoshida, Y. [Environmental Research Laboratory, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko (Japan); Aoyama, M. [Geochemical Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); Hirose, K. [Sophia University, Tokyo (Japan)

    2013-07-15

    The spatial distributions and the temporal variations of {sup 137}Cs and {sup 239,240}Pu concentrations were simulated by using an ocean general circulation model (OGCM). These radionuclides are introduced into the ocean by global fallout originating from atmospheric nuclear weapons tests. {sup 137}Cs derived from global fallout is transported into the ocean interior by advection and diffusion, and the {sup 137}Cs concentration is reduced by radioactive decay. In contrast to {sup 137}Cs, {sup 239,240}Pu, which is a particle reactive radionuclide, is a biogeochemical tracer. The global distribution of the {sup 239,240}Pu{sup /137}Cs ratio was investigated in an OGCM with a biogeochemical process model. A half regeneration depth (HRD) of {sup 239,240}Pu was estimated from curve fitting of the vertical profile of the {sup 239,240}Pu/{sup 137}Cs ratio. Simulated distribution of the HRD is in good agreement with observation, except in the subarctic gyre. The HRD is a good tool to improve the parameters in the biogeochemical process. (author)

  9. Global marine plankton functional type biomass distributions : Phaeocystis spp

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vogt, M.; O'Brien, C.; Peloquin, J.; Schoemann, V.; Breton, E.; Estrada, M.; Gibson, J.; Karentz, D.; van Leeuwe, M. A.; Stefels, J.; Widdicombe, C.; Peperzak, L.

    2012-01-01

    The planktonic haptophyte Phaeocystis has been suggested to play a fundamental role in the global biogeochemical cycling of carbon and sulphur, but little is known about its global biomass distribution. We have collected global microscopy data of the genus Phaeocystis and converted abundance data to

  10. Global tropospheric ozone modeling: Quantifying errors due to grid resolution

    OpenAIRE

    Wild, Oliver; Prather, Michael J

    2006-01-01

    Ozone production in global chemical models is dependent on model resolution because ozone chemistry is inherently nonlinear, the timescales for chemical production are short, and precursors are artificially distributed over the spatial scale of the model grid. In this study we examine the sensitivity of ozone, its precursors, and its production to resolution by running a global chemical transport model at four different resolutions between T21 (5.6° × 5.6°) and T106 (1.1° × 1.1°) and by quant...

  11. A Simple Model of Global Aerosol Indirect Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghan, Steven J.; Smith, Steven J.; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Kai; Pringle, Kirsty; Carslaw, Kenneth; Pierce, Jeffrey; Bauer, Susanne; Adams, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) using analytic representations of cloud and aerosol distributions and processes. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of AIEs that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates by the simple model are sensitive to preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, preindustrial accumulation mode radius, width of the accumulation mode, size of primary particles, cloud thickness, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Estimates of present-day AIEs as low as 5 W/sq m and as high as 0.3 W/sq m are obtained for plausible sets of parameter values. Estimates are surprisingly linear in emissions. The estimates depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models, which adds to understanding of the dependence on AIE uncertainty on uncertainty in parameter values.

  12. Web-based surveillance and global Salmonella distribution, 2000-2002

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galanis, E.; Wong, Danilo Lo Fo; Patrick, M.E.

    2006-01-01

    Salmonellae are a common cause of foodborne disease worldwide. The World Health Organization (WHO) supports international foodborne disease surveillance through WHO Global Salm-Surv and other activities. WHO Global Salm-Surv members annually report the 15 most frequently isolated Salmonella...... serotypes to a Web-based country databank. We describe the global distribution of reported Salmonella serotypes from human and nonhuman sources from 2000 to 2002. Among human isolates, Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis was the most common serotype, accounting for 65% of all isolates. Among nonhuman...... professionals to explore hypotheses related to the sources and distribution of salmonellae worldwide....

  13. The global distribution of tropospheric NO{sub x} estimated by a 3-D chemical tracer model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kraus, A.B.; Rohrer, F.; Ehhalt, D.H. [Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerische Chemie

    1997-12-31

    The global distribution of NO{sub x} in the troposphere is calculated using a three-dimensional chemical tracer model with a simplified chemistry scheme for the tracers NO{sub x} {identical_to} NO + NO{sub 2} and HNO{sub 3}. At northern mid- and high latitudes, the calculated tropospheric NO{sub x} content is dominated by the surface source fossil fuel combustion. In the tropical free troposphere lightning discharges provide about 80% of the total NO{sub x} throughout the year. The zonally averaged fractional contribution of aircraft emissions strongly depends on season. The NO mixing ratios determined by the model show good overall agreement with corresponding zonal mean values observed during the STRATOZ III aircraft campaign in June. Over Canada, mixing ratios as high as 0.5-1.0 ppbv NO were measured during TROPOZ II, the origin of which is not yet understood. (author) 8 refs.

  14. The global distribution of tropospheric NO{sub x} estimated by a 3-D chemical tracer model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kraus, A B; Rohrer, F; Ehhalt, D H [Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerische Chemie

    1998-12-31

    The global distribution of NO{sub x} in the troposphere is calculated using a three-dimensional chemical tracer model with a simplified chemistry scheme for the tracers NO{sub x} {identical_to} NO + NO{sub 2} and HNO{sub 3}. At northern mid- and high latitudes, the calculated tropospheric NO{sub x} content is dominated by the surface source fossil fuel combustion. In the tropical free troposphere lightning discharges provide about 80% of the total NO{sub x} throughout the year. The zonally averaged fractional contribution of aircraft emissions strongly depends on season. The NO mixing ratios determined by the model show good overall agreement with corresponding zonal mean values observed during the STRATOZ III aircraft campaign in June. Over Canada, mixing ratios as high as 0.5-1.0 ppbv NO were measured during TROPOZ II, the origin of which is not yet understood. (author) 8 refs.

  15. The importance of the human footprint in shaping the global distribution of terrestrial, freshwater and marine invaders.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belinda Gallardo

    Full Text Available Human activities such as transport, trade and tourism are likely to influence the spatial distribution of non-native species and yet, Species Distribution Models (SDMs that aim to predict the future broad scale distribution of invaders often rely on environmental (e.g. climatic information only. This study investigates if and to what extent do human activities that directly or indirectly influence nature (hereafter the human footprint affect the global distribution of invasive species in terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. We selected 72 species including terrestrial plants, terrestrial animals, freshwater and marine invasive species of concern in a focus area located in NW Europe (encompassing Great Britain, France, The Netherlands and Belgium. Species Distribution Models were calibrated with the global occurrence of species and a set of high-resolution (9×9 km environmental (e.g. topography, climate, geology layers and human footprint proxies (e.g. the human influence index, population density, road proximity. Our analyses suggest that the global occurrence of a wide range of invaders is primarily limited by climate. Temperature tolerance was the most important factor and explained on average 42% of species distribution. Nevertheless, factors related to the human footprint explained a substantial amount (23% on average of species distributions. When global models were projected into the focus area, spatial predictions integrating the human footprint featured the highest cumulative risk scores close to transport networks (proxy for invasion pathways and in habitats with a high human influence index (proxy for propagule pressure. We conclude that human related information-currently available in the form of easily accessible maps and databases-should be routinely implemented into predictive frameworks to inform upon policies to prevent and manage invasions. Otherwise we might be seriously underestimating the species and areas under

  16. Confronting species distribution model predictions with species functional traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittmann, Marion E; Barnes, Matthew A; Jerde, Christopher L; Jones, Lisa A; Lodge, David M

    2016-02-01

    Species distribution models are valuable tools in studies of biogeography, ecology, and climate change and have been used to inform conservation and ecosystem management. However, species distribution models typically incorporate only climatic variables and species presence data. Model development or validation rarely considers functional components of species traits or other types of biological data. We implemented a species distribution model (Maxent) to predict global climate habitat suitability for Grass Carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella). We then tested the relationship between the degree of climate habitat suitability predicted by Maxent and the individual growth rates of both wild (N = 17) and stocked (N = 51) Grass Carp populations using correlation analysis. The Grass Carp Maxent model accurately reflected the global occurrence data (AUC = 0.904). Observations of Grass Carp growth rate covered six continents and ranged from 0.19 to 20.1 g day(-1). Species distribution model predictions were correlated (r = 0.5, 95% CI (0.03, 0.79)) with observed growth rates for wild Grass Carp populations but were not correlated (r = -0.26, 95% CI (-0.5, 0.012)) with stocked populations. Further, a review of the literature indicates that the few studies for other species that have previously assessed the relationship between the degree of predicted climate habitat suitability and species functional traits have also discovered significant relationships. Thus, species distribution models may provide inferences beyond just where a species may occur, providing a useful tool to understand the linkage between species distributions and underlying biological mechanisms.

  17. Phosphorus in agricultural soils: drivers of its distribution at the global scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ringeval, Bruno [ISPA, Villenave d' Ornon (France); Augusto, Laurent [ISPA, Villenave d' Ornon (France); Monod, Herve [Univ. Paris-Saclay, Jouy-en-Josas (France); van Apeldoorn, Dirk [Utrecht Univ., Utrecht (The Netherlands); Bouwman, Lex [Utrecht Univ., Utrecht (The Netherlands); Yang, Xiaojuan [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Achat, David L. [ISPA, Villenave d' Ornon (France); Chini, Louise P. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Van Oost, Kristof [Univ. Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Guenet, Bertrand [Univ. Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Wang, Rong [Univ. Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Peking Univ., Beijing (China); Decharme, Bertrand [CNRS/Meteo-France, Toulouse (France); Nesme, Thomas [ISPA, Villenave d' Ornon (France); Pellerin, Sylvain [ISPA, Villenave d' Ornon (France)

    2017-01-09

    Phosphorus (P) availability in soils limits crop yields in many regions of the world, while excess of soil P triggers aquatic eutrophication in other regions. Numerous processes drive the global spatial distribution of P in agricultural soils, but their relative roles remain unclear. Here, we combined several global datasets describing these drivers with a soil P dynamics model to simulate the distribution of P in agricultural soils and to assess the contributions of the different drivers at the global scale. We analyzed both the labile inorganic P (PILAB), a proxy of the pool involved in plant nutrition and the total soil P (PTOT). We found that the soil biogeochemical background (BIOG) and farming practices (FARM) were the main drivers of the spatial variability in cropland soil P content but that their contribution varied between PTOT vs PILAB. Indeed, 97% of the PTOT spatial variability could be explained by BIOG, while BIOG and FARM explained 41% and 58% of PILAB spatial variability, respectively. Other drivers such as climate, soil erosion, atmospheric P deposition and soil buffering capacity made only very small contribution. Lastly, our study is a promising approach to investigate the potential effect of P as a limiting factor for agricultural ecosystems and for global food production. Additionally, we quantified the anthropogenic perturbation of P cycle and demonstrated how the different drivers are combined to explain the global distribution of agricultural soil P.

  18. Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Present-day distribution and trends of tropospheric ozone relevant to climate and global atmospheric chemistry model evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gaudel

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available 'The Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report' (TOAR is an activity of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Project. This paper is a component of the report, focusing on the present-day distribution and trends of tropospheric ozone relevant to climate and global atmospheric chemistry model evaluation. Utilizing the TOAR surface ozone database, several figures present the global distribution and trends of daytime average ozone at 2702 non-urban monitoring sites, highlighting the regions and seasons of the world with the greatest ozone levels. Similarly, ozonesonde and commercial aircraft observations reveal ozone’s distribution throughout the depth of the free troposphere. Long-term surface observations are limited in their global spatial coverage, but data from remote locations indicate that ozone in the 21st century is greater than during the 1970s and 1980s. While some remote sites and many sites in the heavily polluted regions of East Asia show ozone increases since 2000, many others show decreases and there is no clear global pattern for surface ozone changes since 2000. Two new satellite products provide detailed views of ozone in the lower troposphere across East Asia and Europe, revealing the full spatial extent of the spring and summer ozone enhancements across eastern China that cannot be assessed from limited surface observations. Sufficient data are now available (ozonesondes, satellite, aircraft across the tropics from South America eastwards to the western Pacific Ocean, to indicate a likely tropospheric column ozone increase since the 1990s. The 2014–2016 mean tropospheric ozone burden (TOB between 60°N–60°S from five satellite products is 300 Tg ± 4%. While this agreement is excellent, the products differ in their quantification of TOB trends and further work is required to reconcile the differences. Satellites can now estimate ozone’s global long-wave radiative effect, but evaluation is difficult due to limited

  19. Distribution of known macrozooplankton abundance and biomass in the global ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moriarty, R.; Buitenhuis, E. T.; Le Quéré, C.; Gosselin, M.-P.

    2013-07-01

    Macrozooplankton are an important link between higher and lower trophic levels in the oceans. They serve as the primary food for fish, reptiles, birds and mammals in some regions, and play a role in the export of carbon from the surface to the intermediate and deep ocean. Little, however, is known of their global distribution and biomass. Here we compiled a dataset of macrozooplankton abundance and biomass observations for the global ocean from a collection of four datasets. We harmonise the data to common units, calculate additional carbon biomass where possible, and bin the dataset in a global 1 × 1 degree grid. This dataset is part of a wider effort to provide a global picture of carbon biomass data for key plankton functional types, in particular to support the development of marine ecosystem models. Over 387 700 abundance data and 1330 carbon biomass data have been collected from pre-existing datasets. A further 34 938 abundance data were converted to carbon biomass data using species-specific length frequencies or using species-specific abundance to carbon biomass data. Depth-integrated values are used to calculate known epipelagic macrozooplankton biomass concentrations and global biomass. Global macrozooplankton biomass, to a depth of 350 m, has a mean of 8.4 μg C L-1, median of 0.2 μg C L-1 and a standard deviation of 63.5 μg C L-1. The global annual average estimate of macrozooplankton biomass in the top 350 m, based on the median value, is 0.02 Pg C. There are, however, limitations on the dataset; abundance observations have good coverage except in the South Pacific mid-latitudes, but biomass observation coverage is only good at high latitudes. Biomass is restricted to data that is originally given in carbon or to data that can be converted from abundance to carbon. Carbon conversions from abundance are restricted by the lack of information on the size of the organism and/or the absence of taxonomic information. Distribution patterns of global

  20. Controls on the global distribution of contourite drifts: Insights from an eddy-resolving ocean model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thran, Amanda C.; Dutkiewicz, Adriana; Spence, Paul; Müller, R. Dietmar

    2018-05-01

    Contourite drifts are anomalously high sediment accumulations that form due to reworking by bottom currents. Due to the lack of a comprehensive contourite database, the link between vigorous bottom water activity and drift occurrence has yet to be demonstrated on a global scale. Using an eddy-resolving ocean model and a new georeferenced database of 267 contourites, we show that the global distribution of modern contourite drifts strongly depends on the configuration of the world's most powerful bottom currents, many of which are associated with global meridional overturning circulation. Bathymetric obstacles frequently modify flow direction and intensity, imposing additional finer-scale control on drift occurrence. Mean bottom current speed over contourite-covered areas is only slightly higher (2.2 cm/s) than the rest of the global ocean (1.1 cm/s), falling below proposed thresholds deemed necessary to re-suspend and redistribute sediments (10-15 cm/s). However, currents fluctuate more frequently and intensely over areas with drifts, highlighting the role of intermittent, high-energy bottom current events in sediment erosion, transport, and subsequent drift accumulation. We identify eddies as a major driver of these bottom current fluctuations, and we find that simulated bottom eddy kinetic energy is over three times higher in contourite-covered areas in comparison to the rest of the ocean. Our work supports previous hypotheses which suggest that contourite deposition predominantly occurs due to repeated acute events as opposed to continuous reworking under average-intensity background flow conditions. This suggests that the contourite record should be interpreted in terms of a bottom current's susceptibility to experiencing periodic, high-speed current events. Our results also highlight the potential role of upper ocean dynamics in contourite sedimentation through its direct influence on deep eddy circulation.

  1. How the Emitted Size Distribution and Mixing State of Feldspar Affect Ice Nucleating Particles in a Global Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perlwitz, J. P.; Fridlind, A. M.; Knopf, D. A.; Miller, R. L.; Pérez García-Pando, C.

    2017-12-01

    The effect of aerosol particles on ice nucleation and, in turn, the formation of ice and mixed phase clouds is recognized as one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate prediction. We apply an improved dust mineral specific aerosol module in the NASA GISS Earth System ModelE, which takes into account soil aggregates and their fragmentation at emission as well as the emission of large particles. We calculate ice nucleating particle concentrations from K-feldspar abundance for an active site parameterization for a range of activation temperatures and external and internal mixing assumption. We find that the globally averaged INP concentration is reduced by a factor of two to three, compared to a simple assumption on the size distribution of emitted dust minerals. The decrease can amount to a factor of five in some geographical regions. The results vary little between external and internal mixing and different activation temperatures, except for the coldest temperatures. In the sectional size distribution, the size range 2-4 μm contributes the largest INP number.

  2. How the Emitted Size Distribution and Mixing State of Feldspar Affect Ice Nucleating Particles in a Global Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perlwitz, Jan P.; Fridlind, Ann M.; Knopf, Daniel A.; Miller, Ron L.; García-Pando, Carlos Perez

    2017-01-01

    The effect of aerosol particles on ice nucleation and, in turn, the formation of ice and mixed phase clouds is recognized as one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate prediction. We apply an improved dust mineral specific aerosol module in the NASA GISS Earth System ModelE, which takes into account soil aggregates and their fragmentation at emission as well as the emission of large particles. We calculate ice nucleating particle concentrations from K-feldspar abundance for an active site parameterization for a range of activation temperatures and external and internal mixing assumption. We find that the globally averaged INP concentration is reduced by a factor of two to three, compared to a simple assumption on the size distribution of emitted dust minerals. The decrease can amount to a factor of five in some geographical regions. The results vary little between external and internal mixing and different activation temperatures, except for the coldest temperatures. In the sectional size distribution, the size range 24 micrometer contributes the largest INP number.

  3. Spatiotemporal distribution and national measurement of the global carbonate carbon sink.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Huiwen; Wang, Shijie; Bai, Xiaoyong; Luo, Weijun; Tang, Hong; Cao, Yue; Wu, Luhua; Chen, Fei; Li, Qin; Zeng, Cheng; Wang, Mingming

    2018-06-21

    The magnitudes, spatial distributions and contributions to global carbon budget of the global carbonate carbon sink (CCS) still remain uncertain, allowing the problem of national measurement of CCS remain unresolved which will directly influence the fairness of global carbon markets and emission trading. Here, based on high spatiotemporal resolution ecological, meteorological raster data and chemical field monitoring data, combining highly reliable machine learning algorithm with the thermodynamic dissolution equilibrium model, we estimated the new CCS of 0.89 ± 0.23 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C yr -1 ), amounting to 74.50% of global net forest sink and accounting for 28.75% of terrestrial sinks or 46.81% of the missing sink. Our measurement for 142 nations of CCS showed that Russia, Canada, China and the USA contribute over half of the global CCS. We also presented the first global fluxes maps of the CCS with spatial resolution of 0.05°, exhibiting two peaks in equatorial regions (10°S to 10°N) and low latitudes (10°N to 35°N) in Northern Hemisphere. By contrast, there are no peaks in Southern Hemisphere. The greatest average carbon sink flux (CCSF), i.e., 2.12 tC ha -1  yr -1 , for 2000 to 2014 was contributed by tropical rainforest climate near the equator, and the smallest average CCSF was presented in tropical arid zones, showing a magnitude of 0.26 tC ha -1  yr -1 . This research estimated the magnitudes, spatial distributions, variations and contributions to the global carbon budget of the CCS in a higher spatiotemporal representativeness and expandability way, which, via multiple mechanisms, introduced an important sink in the terrestrial carbon sink system and the global missing sink and that can help us further reveal and support our understanding of global rock weathering carbon sequestration, terrestrial carbon sink system and global carbon cycle dynamics which make our understanding of global change more comprehensive

  4. Gridded Species Distribution, Version 1: Global Amphibians Presence Grids

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Amphibians Presence Grids of the Gridded Species Distribution, Version 1 is a reclassified version of the original grids of amphibian species distribution...

  5. Modeling the Effect of Oil Price on Global Fertilizer Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P-Y. Chen (Ping-Yu); C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); C-C. Chen (Chi-Chung); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and alternative volatility models, including the

  6. 2-D model of global aerosol transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rehkopf, J; Newiger, M; Grassl, H

    1984-01-01

    The distribution of aerosol particles in the troposphere is described. Starting with long term mean seasonal flow and diffusivities as well as temperature, cloud distribution (six cloud classes), relative humidity and OH radical concentration, the steady state concentration of aerosol particles and SO/sub 2/ are calculated in a two-dimensional global (height and latitude) model. The following sources and sinks for particles are handled: direct emission, gas-to-particle conversion from SO/sub 2/, coagulation, rainout, washout, gravitational settling, and dry deposition. The sinks considered for sulphur emissions are dry deposition, washout, rainout, gasphase oxidation, and aqueous phase oxidation. Model tests with the water vapour cycle show a good agreement between measured and calculated zonal mean precipitation distribution. The steady state concentration distribution for natural emissions reached after 10 weeks model time, may be described by a mean exponent ..cap alpha.. = 3.2 near the surface assuming a modified Junge distribution and an increased value, ..cap alpha.. = 3.7, for the combined natural and man-made emission. The maximum ground level concentrations are 2000 and 10,000 particules cm/sup -3/ for natural and natural plus man-made emissions, respectively. The resulting distribution of sulphur dioxide agrees satisfactorily with measurements given by several authors. 37 references, 4 figures.

  7. Spatially explicit modeling of particulate nutrient flux in Large global rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, S.; Kettner, A.; Mayorga, E.; Harrison, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    Water, sediment, nutrient and carbon fluxes along river networks have undergone considerable alterations in response to anthropogenic and climatic changes, with significant consequences to infrastructure, agriculture, water security, ecology and geomorphology worldwide. However, in a global setting, these changes in fluvial fluxes and their spatial and temporal characteristics are poorly constrained, due to the limited availability of continuous and long-term observations. We present results from a new global-scale particulate modeling framework (WBMsedNEWS) that combines the Global NEWS watershed nutrient export model with the spatially distributed WBMsed water and sediment model. We compare the model predictions against multiple observational datasets. The results indicate that the model is able to accurately predict particulate nutrient (Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Organic Carbon) fluxes on an annual time scale. Analysis of intra-basin nutrient dynamics and fluxes to global oceans is presented.

  8. Modeling and Evaluation of the Global Sea-Salt Aerosol Distribution: Sensitivity to Emission Schemes and Resolution Effects at Coastal/Orographic Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spada, M.; Jorba, O.; Perez Garcia-Pando, C.; Janjic, Z.; Baldasano, J. M.

    2013-01-01

    One of the major sources of uncertainty in model estimates of the global sea-salt aerosol distribution is the emission parameterization. We evaluate a new sea-salt aerosol life cycle module coupled to the online multi-scale chemical transport model NMMB/BSC-CTM. We compare 5 year global simulations using five state-of-the-art sea-salt open-ocean emission schemes with monthly averaged coarse aerosol optical depth (AOD) from selected AERONET sun photometers, surface concentration measurements from the University of Miami's Ocean Aerosol Network, and measurements from two NOAA/PMEL cruises (AEROINDOEX and ACE1). Model results are highly sensitive to the introduction of sea-surface-temperature (SST)-dependent emissions and to the accounting of spume particles production. Emission ranges from 3888 teragrams per year to 8114 teragrams per year, lifetime varies between 7.3 hours and 11.3 hours, and the average column mass load is between 5.0 teragrams and 7.2 teragrams. Coarse AOD is reproduced with an overall correlation of around 0.5 and with normalized biases ranging from +8.8 percent to +38.8 percent. Surface concentration is simulated with normalized biases ranging from minus 9.5 percent to plus 28 percent and the overall correlation is around 0.5. Our results indicate that SST-dependent emission schemes improve the overall model performance in reproducing surface concentrations. On the other hand, they lead to an overestimation of the coarse AOD at tropical latitudes, although it may be affected by uncertainties in the comparison due to the use of all-sky model AOD, the treatment of water uptake, deposition and optical properties in the model and/or an inaccurate size distribution at emission.

  9. Statistical Maps of Ground Magnetic Disturbance Derived from Global Geospace Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigler, E. J.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Love, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    Electric currents in space are the principal driver of magnetic variations measured at Earth's surface. These in turn induce geoelectric fields that present a natural hazard for technological systems like high-voltage power distribution networks. Modern global geospace models can reasonably simulate large-scale geomagnetic response to solar wind variations, but they are less successful at deterministic predictions of intense localized geomagnetic activity that most impacts technological systems on the ground. Still, recent studies have shown that these models can accurately reproduce the spatial statistical distributions of geomagnetic activity, suggesting that their physics are largely correct. Since the magnetosphere is a largely externally driven system, most model-measurement discrepancies probably arise from uncertain boundary conditions. So, with realistic distributions of solar wind parameters to establish its boundary conditions, we use the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) geospace model to build a synthetic multivariate statistical model of gridded ground magnetic disturbance. From this, we analyze the spatial modes of geomagnetic response, regress on available measurements to fill in unsampled locations on the grid, and estimate the global probability distribution of extreme magnetic disturbance. The latter offers a prototype geomagnetic "hazard map", similar to those used to characterize better-known geophysical hazards like earthquakes and floods.

  10. Global distributions of cloud properties for CERES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun-Mack, S.; Minnis, P.; Heck, P.; Young, D.

    2003-04-01

    The microphysical and macrophysical properties of clouds play a crucial role in the earth's radiation budget. Simultaneous measurement of the radiation and cloud fields on a global basis has long been recognized as a key component in understanding and modeling the interaction between clouds and radiation at the top of the atmosphere, at the surface, and within the atmosphere. With the implementation of the NASA Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) in 1998, this need is being met. Broadband shortwave and longwave radiance measurements taken by the CERES scanners at resolutions between 10 and 20 km on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Terra, and Aqua satellites are matched to simultaneous retrievals of cloud height, phase, particle size, water path, and optical depth from the TRMM Visible Infrared Scanner and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Terra and Aqua. The combined cloud-radiation product has already been used for developing new, highly accurate anisotropic directional models for converting broadband radiances to flux. They also provide a consistent measure of cloud properties at different times of day over the globe since January 1998. These data will be valuable for determining the indirect effects of aerosols and for linking cloud water to cloud radiation. This paper provides an overview of the CERES cloud products from the three satellites including the retrieval methodology, validation, and global distributions. Availability and access to the datasets will also be discussed.

  11. Globalization impact on consumption and distribution in society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panfilova Olga

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the greatest threats to the capital reproduction globalization is the significant increasing of unemployment. Outsourcing creates workplaces outside the framework of TNCs, but in frames of the national economy. From our point of view this is a way to maximize the financial result. Unemployment, even technical, increases social spending. At the same time, the idea of basic income should change the priorities in the system of distribution of the reproduction result. The key beneficiary of sharing-economy approach is a consumer, who can save something on intermediaries or transaction costs. The development of sharing economy rather indicates that TNCs are not planning to lower their rate of return. However, the growing technological unemployment simultaneously with the stimulation of demand found a solution. The solution is the joint consumption of goods produced by the sharing economy. Historical examples of solution to the problem of distribution clearly demonstrate the importance of transforming the reproductive cycle’s financial architecture. The models operating on the basis of fair distribution have not only prospects of development, but also are capable to change society attitude to the concept and approaches to consumption.

  12. GEM-AQ/EC, an on-line global multi-scale chemical weather modelling system: model development and evaluation of global aerosol climatology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. L. Gong

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available A global air quality modeling system GEM-AQ/EC was developed by implementing tropospheric chemistry and aerosol processes on-line into the Global Environmental Multiscale weather prediction model – GEM. Due to the multi-scale features of the GEM, the integrated model, GEM-AQ/EC, is able to investigate chemical weather at scales from global to urban domains. The current chemical mechanism is comprised of 50 gas-phase species, 116 chemical and 19 photolysis reactions, and is complemented by a sectional aerosol module CAM (The Canadian Aerosol Module with 5 aerosols types: sulphate, black carbon, organic carbon, sea-salt and soil dust. Monthly emission inventories of black carbon and organic carbon from boreal and temperate vegetation fires were assembled using the most reliable areas burned datasets by countries, from statistical databases and derived from remote sensing products of 1995–2004. The model was run for ten years from from 1995–2004 with re-analyzed meteorology on a global uniform 1° × 1° horizontal resolution domain and 28 hybrid levels extending up to 10 hPa. The simulating results were compared with various observations including surface network around the globe and satellite data. Regional features of global aerosols are reasonably captured including emission, surface concentrations and aerosol optical depth. For various types of aerosols, satisfactory correlations were achieved between modeled and observed with some degree of systematic bias possibly due to large uncertainties in the emissions used in this study. A global distribution of natural aerosol contributions to the total aerosols is obtained and compared with observations.

  13. Global Distribution of Marine Radioactivity. Chapter 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zal U'yun Wan Mahmood; Abdul Kadir Ishak; Norfaizal Mohamad; Wo, Y.M.; Kamarudin Samuding

    2015-01-01

    The global distribution of radionuclide activity in marine environments are totally different for each regions. This is because the sources for the supply, space, time, season, nature (physical, chemical and geochemical) and the nature of ocean physical (waves) differentiates it.

  14. Variability in global ocean phytoplankton distribution over 1979-2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masotti, I.; Alvain, S.; Moulin, C.; Antoine, D.

    2009-04-01

    Recently, reanalysis of long-term ocean color data (CZCS and SeaWiFS; Antoine et al., 2005) has shown that world ocean average phytoplankton chlorophyll levels show an increase of 20% over the last two decades. It is however unknown whether this increase is associated with a change in the distribution of phytoplankton groups or if it simply corresponds to an increase of the productivity. Within the framework of the GLOBPHY project, the distribution of the phytoplankton groups was monitored by applying the PHYSAT method (Alvain et al., 2005) to the historical ocean color data series from CZCS, OCTS and SeaWiFS sensors. The PHYSAT algorithm allows identification of several phytoplankton, like nanoeucaryotes, prochlorococcus, synechococcus and diatoms. Because both sensors (OCTS-SeaWiFS) are very similar, OCTS data were processed with the standard PHYSAT algorithm to cover the 1996-1997 period during which a large El Niño event occurred, just before the SeaWiFS era. Our analysis of this dataset (1996-2006) evidences a strong variability in the distribution of phytoplankton groups at both regional and global scales. In the equatorial region (0°-5°S), a three-fold increase of nanoeucaryotes frequency was detected in opposition to a two-fold decrease of synechococcus during the early stages of El Niño conditions (May-June 1997, OCTS). The impact of this El Niño is however not confined to the Equatorial Pacific and has affected the global ocean. The processing of CZCS data with PHYSAT has required several adaptations of this algorithm due to the lower performances and the reduced number of spectral bands of the sensor. Despites higher uncertainties, the phytoplankton groups distribution obtained with CZCS is globally consistent with that of SeaWiFS. A comparison of variability in global phytoplankton distribution between 1979-1982 (CZCS) and 1999-2002 (SeaWiFS) suggests an increase in nanoeucaryotes at high latitudes (>40°) and in the equatorial region (10°S-10

  15. Global asymptotic stability analysis of bidirectional associative memory neural networks with distributed delays and impulse

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Zaitang; Luo Xiaoshu; Yang Qigui

    2007-01-01

    Many systems existing in physics, chemistry, biology, engineering and information science can be characterized by impulsive dynamics caused by abrupt jumps at certain instants during the process. These complex dynamical behaviors can be model by impulsive differential system or impulsive neural networks. This paper formulates and studies a new model of impulsive bidirectional associative memory (BAM) networks with finite distributed delays. Several fundamental issues, such as global asymptotic stability and existence and uniqueness of such BAM neural networks with impulse and distributed delays, are established

  16. Robust distributed model predictive control of linear systems with structured time-varying uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Langwen; Xie, Wei; Wang, Jingcheng

    2017-11-01

    In this work, synthesis of robust distributed model predictive control (MPC) is presented for a class of linear systems subject to structured time-varying uncertainties. By decomposing a global system into smaller dimensional subsystems, a set of distributed MPC controllers, instead of a centralised controller, are designed. To ensure the robust stability of the closed-loop system with respect to model uncertainties, distributed state feedback laws are obtained by solving a min-max optimisation problem. The design of robust distributed MPC is then transformed into solving a minimisation optimisation problem with linear matrix inequality constraints. An iterative online algorithm with adjustable maximum iteration is proposed to coordinate the distributed controllers to achieve a global performance. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed robust distributed MPC algorithm.

  17. Global Distribution of Dissected Duricrust on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mustard, J. F.; Cooper, C. D.

    2000-01-01

    Evidence for dissected duricrust was identified in high resolution MOC images. Analysis of all available images was used to map the global distribution of this terrain. It is apparently restricted to two latitude bands: 30-60 deg. N and 30-60 deg. S.

  18. Intercomparison and evaluation of global aerosol microphysical properties among AeroCom models of a range of complexity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. W. Mann

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Many of the next generation of global climate models will include aerosol schemes which explicitly simulate the microphysical processes that determine the particle size distribution. These models enable aerosol optical properties and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN concentrations to be determined by fundamental aerosol processes, which should lead to a more physically based simulation of aerosol direct and indirect radiative forcings. This study examines the global variation in particle size distribution simulated by 12 global aerosol microphysics models to quantify model diversity and to identify any common biases against observations. Evaluation against size distribution measurements from a new European network of aerosol supersites shows that the mean model agrees quite well with the observations at many sites on the annual mean, but there are some seasonal biases common to many sites. In particular, at many of these European sites, the accumulation mode number concentration is biased low during winter and Aitken mode concentrations tend to be overestimated in winter and underestimated in summer. At high northern latitudes, the models strongly underpredict Aitken and accumulation particle concentrations compared to the measurements, consistent with previous studies that have highlighted the poor performance of global aerosol models in the Arctic. In the marine boundary layer, the models capture the observed meridional variation in the size distribution, which is dominated by the Aitken mode at high latitudes, with an increasing concentration of accumulation particles with decreasing latitude. Considering vertical profiles, the models reproduce the observed peak in total particle concentrations in the upper troposphere due to new particle formation, although modelled peak concentrations tend to be biased high over Europe. Overall, the multi-model-mean data set simulates the global variation of the particle size distribution with a good degree

  19. Global model for the lithospheric strength and effective elastic thickness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tesauro, Magdala; Kaban, Mikhail K.; Cloetingh, Sierd A. P. L.

    2013-08-01

    Global distribution of the strength and effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithosphere are estimated using physical parameters from recent crustal and lithospheric models. For the Te estimation we apply a new approach, which provides a possibility to take into account variations of Young modulus (E) within the lithosphere. In view of the large uncertainties affecting strength estimates, we evaluate global strength and Te distributions for possible end-member 'hard' (HRM) and a 'soft' (SRM) rheology models of the continental crust. Temperature within the lithosphere has been estimated using a recent tomography model of Ritsema et al. (2011), which has much higher horizontal resolution than previous global models. Most of the strength is localized in the crust for the HRM and in the mantle for the SRM. These results contribute to the long debates on applicability of the "crème brulée" or "jelly-sandwich" model for the lithosphere structure. Changing from the SRM to HRM turns most of the continental areas from the totally decoupled mode to the fully coupled mode of the lithospheric layers. However, in the areas characterized by a high thermal regime and thick crust, the layers remain decoupled even for the HRM. At the same time, for the inner part of the cratons the lithospheric layers are coupled in both models. Therefore, rheological variations lead to large changes in the integrated strength and Te distribution in the regions characterized by intermediate thermal conditions. In these areas temperature uncertainties have a greater effect, since this parameter principally determines rheological behavior. Comparison of the Te estimates for both models with those determined from the flexural loading and spectral analysis shows that the 'hard' rheology is likely applicable for cratonic areas, whereas the 'soft' rheology is more representative for young orogens.

  20. Development and evaluation of global radon transport model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kojima, H.; Nagano, K.

    2003-01-01

    The radioactive noble gas Radon-222 ( 222 Rn) is chemically inert and is removed only by radioactive decay (T1/2=3.8 d). Its primary source is uniformly distributed over the continents and the ocean represents a secondary source of atmospheric 222 Rn. The strong contrast in source strength between continents and the ocean makes 222 Rn an ideal marker of continental air masses. Because of its simple properties, the temporal and spatial distribution of 222 Rn in the troposphere is straightforward to simulate by means of atmospheric transport models. The simulation provides an intuitive visualization of the complex transport characteristics and more definite proof of phenomenon. In this paper, we present the results of an exploratory study, in which we investigated the performance of a three-dimensional transport model of the global troposphere in simulating the long range transport of 222 Rn. The transport equation has been solved by a numerical procedure based on some boundary conditions. The model structure which we have originally developed, has a horizontal resolution of 2.5deg in latitude and 2.5deg in longitude, and 10 layers in the vertical dimension. The basic computational time step used in the model runs was set to 5 min. The simulations described in this article were performed by means of a transport model driven by global objective analytical data of a time resolution of 6 h, supplied by the Japan Meteorological Agency. We focus on the west of North Pacific Ocean, were the influence of air pollution from an Asian Continent and the Japan Islands was received. For simulation experiments, radon data from some shipboard measurements on the North Pacific Ocean have been used in the present study. Figure shows time series of model prediction with different latitude distributions of radon exhalation rate and measured radon data. We find that our model consistently produce the observation. We will discuss the characteristics of the temporal and special

  1. Global patterns of city size distributions and their fundamental drivers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ethan H Decker

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Urban areas and their voracious appetites are increasingly dominating the flows of energy and materials around the globe. Understanding the size distribution and dynamics of urban areas is vital if we are to manage their growth and mitigate their negative impacts on global ecosystems. For over 50 years, city size distributions have been assumed to universally follow a power function, and many theories have been put forth to explain what has become known as Zipf's law (the instance where the exponent of the power function equals unity. Most previous studies, however, only include the largest cities that comprise the tail of the distribution. Here we show that national, regional and continental city size distributions, whether based on census data or inferred from cluster areas of remotely-sensed nighttime lights, are in fact lognormally distributed through the majority of cities and only approach power functions for the largest cities in the distribution tails. To explore generating processes, we use a simple model incorporating only two basic human dynamics, migration and reproduction, that nonetheless generates distributions very similar to those found empirically. Our results suggest that macroscopic patterns of human settlements may be far more constrained by fundamental ecological principles than more fine-scale socioeconomic factors.

  2. Using Global and Regional Species Distribution Models (SDM) to Infer the Invasive Stage of Latrodectus geometricus (Araneae: Theridiidae) in the Americas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taucare-Ríos, Andrés; Bizama, Gustavo; Bustamante, Ramiro O

    2016-12-01

    The brown widow spider, Latrodectus geometricus C. L. Koch, 1841, is a large spider of the family Theridiidae that belongs to a genus of medical interest owing to its potent neurotoxic venom, which causes severe pain in humans. In America, this alien spider has been found in virtually all countries in the region, mainly associated with human dwellings, but also in agricultural sectors. However, the invasive process and potential distribution of this invasive species across the American continent are completely unknown. In this context, using a combination of both global and regional niche models, it is possible to hypothesize the invasive phase of the species as well as the geographic space where these different phases occur. By comparing the global and regional niches of L. geometricus, we examined its invasive process and potential distribution across the American continent. This work is an innovative approach to understanding the invasion of the brown widow spider in this area and the ecological processes that underlie this invasion. In this context, the global and regional niche comparison constitutes an appropriate tool to account for the complexities of the invasive process, generating different hypotheses amenable to being tested in future studies. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Globally distributed software defined storage (proposal)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shevel, A.; Khoruzhnikov, S.; Grudinin, V.; Sadov, O.; Kairkanov, A.

    2017-10-01

    The volume of the coming data in HEP is growing. The volume of the data to be held for a long time is growing as well. Large volume of data - big data - is distributed around the planet. The methods, approaches how to organize and manage the globally distributed data storage are required. The distributed storage has several examples for personal needs like own-cloud.org, pydio.com, seafile.com, sparkleshare.org. For enterprise-level there is a number of systems: SWIFT - distributed storage systems (part of Openstack), CEPH and the like which are mostly object storage. When several data center’s resources are integrated, the organization of data links becomes very important issue especially if several parallel data links between data centers are used. The situation in data centers and in data links may vary each hour. All that means each part of distributed data storage has to be able to rearrange usage of data links and storage servers in each data center. In addition, for each customer of distributed storage different requirements could appear. The above topics are planned to be discussed in data storage proposal.

  4. Globalization and the distribution of income: The economic arguments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Ronald W.

    2003-01-01

    One of the issues currently being debated in the ongoing discussion of the pros and cons of today's globalization concerns the effects of greater world trade as well as of the changes in technology on a country's internal distribution of income, especially on skilled versus unskilled wage rates. In this article, I attempt to spell out some of the arguments concerning internal income distribution that have been put forth both by labor economists and international trade theorists. The impact of globalization on the wage premium between the skilled and unskilled may not be as obvious as is first imagined. PMID:12960390

  5. Distributional aspects of emissions in climate change integrated assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantore, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    The recent failure of Copenhagen negotiations shows that concrete actions are needed to create the conditions for a consensus over global emission reduction policies. A wide coalition of countries in international climate change agreements could be facilitated by the perceived fairness of rich and poor countries of the abatement sharing at international level. In this paper I use two popular climate change integrated assessment models to investigate the path and decompose components and sources of future inequality in the emissions distribution. Results prove to be consistent with previous empirical studies and robust to model comparison and show that gaps in GDP across world regions will still play a crucial role in explaining different countries contributions to global warming. - Research highlights: → I implement a scenario analysis with two global climate change models. → I analyse inequality in the distribution of emissions. → I decompose emissions inequality components. → I find that GDP per capita is the main Kaya identity source of emissions inequality. → Current rich countries will mostly remain responsible for emissions inequality.

  6. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Møller Larsen, Marcus; Bharati, Pratyush M.

    2015-01-01

    antecedents and contingencies of setting up GDM structures. Based on comprehensive data we show that providers are likely to establish GDM location configurations when clients value access to globally distributed talent and speed of service delivery, in particular when services are highly commoditized...

  7. Log-Normal Turbulence Dissipation in Global Ocean Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Brodie; Fox-Kemper, Baylor

    2018-03-01

    Data from turbulent numerical simulations of the global ocean demonstrate that the dissipation of kinetic energy obeys a nearly log-normal distribution even at large horizontal scales O (10 km ) . As the horizontal scales of resolved turbulence are larger than the ocean is deep, the Kolmogorov-Yaglom theory for intermittency in 3D homogeneous, isotropic turbulence cannot apply; instead, the down-scale potential enstrophy cascade of quasigeostrophic turbulence should. Yet, energy dissipation obeys approximate log-normality—robustly across depths, seasons, regions, and subgrid schemes. The distribution parameters, skewness and kurtosis, show small systematic departures from log-normality with depth and subgrid friction schemes. Log-normality suggests that a few high-dissipation locations dominate the integrated energy and enstrophy budgets, which should be taken into account when making inferences from simplified models and inferring global energy budgets from sparse observations.

  8. Model-based synthesis of locally contingent responses to global market signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magliocca, N. R.

    2015-12-01

    Rural livelihoods and the land systems on which they depend are increasingly influenced by distant markets through economic globalization. Place-based analyses of land and livelihood system sustainability must then consider both proximate and distant influences on local decision-making. Thus, advancing land change theory in the context of economic globalization calls for a systematic understanding of the general processes as well as local contingencies shaping local responses to global signals. Synthesis of insights from place-based case studies of land and livelihood change is a path forward for developing such systematic knowledge. This paper introduces a model-based synthesis approach to investigating the influence of local socio-environmental and agent-level factors in mediating land-use and livelihood responses to changing global market signals. A generalized agent-based modeling framework is applied to six case-study sites that differ in environmental conditions, market access and influence, and livelihood settings. The largest modeled land conversions and livelihood transitions to market-oriented production occurred in sties with relatively productive agricultural land and/or with limited livelihood options. Experimental shifts in the distributions of agents' risk tolerances generally acted to attenuate or amplify responses to changes in global market signals. Importantly, however, responses of agents at different points in the risk tolerance distribution varied widely, with the wealth gap growing wider between agents with higher or lower risk tolerance. These results demonstrate model-based synthesis is a promising approach to overcome many of the challenges of current synthesis methods in land change science, and to identify generalized as well as locally contingent responses to global market signals.

  9. Global distributions of water vapour isotopologues retrieved from IMG/ADEOS data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Herbin

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The isotopologic composition of water vapour in the atmosphere provides valuable information on many climate, chemical and dynamical processes. The accurate measurements of the water isotopologues by remote-sensing techniques remains a challenge, due to the large spatial and temporal variations. Simultaneous profile retrievals of the main water isotopologues (i.e. H216O, H218O and HDO and their ratios are presented here for the first time, along their retrieved global distributions. The results are obtained by exploiting the high resolution infrared spectra recorded by the Interferometric Monitor for Greenhouse gases (IMG instrument, which has operated in the nadir geometry onboard the ADEOS satellite between 1996 and 1997. The retrievals are performed on cloud-free radiances, measured during ten days of April 1997, considering two atmospheric windows (1205–1228 cm−1; 2004–2032 cm−1 and using a line-by-line radiative transfer model and an inversion procedure based on the Optimal Estimation Method (OEM. Characterizations in terms of vertical sensitivity and error budget are provided. We show that a relatively high vertical resolution is achieved for H216O (~4–5 km, and that the retrieved profiles are in fair agreement with local sonde measurements, at different latitudes. The retrieved global distributions of H216O, H218O, HDO and their ratios are presented and found to be consistent with previous experimental studies and models. The Ocean-Continent difference, the latitudinal and vertical dependence of the water vapour amount and the isotopologic depletion are notably well reproduced. Others trends, possibly related to small-scale variations in the vertical profiles are also discussed. Despite the difficulties encountered for computing accurately the isotopologic ratios, our results demonstrate the ability

  10. Global and local consistencies in distributed fault diagnosis for discrete-event systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Su, R.; Wonham, W.M.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we present a unified framework for distributed diagnosis. We first introduce the concepts of global and local consistency in terms of supremal global and local supports, then present two distributed diagnosis problems based on them. After that, we provide algorithms to achieve

  11. Evaluation of global continental hydrology as simulated by the Land-surface Processes and eXchanges Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Murray

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Global freshwater resources are sensitive to changes in climate, land cover and population density and distribution. The Land-surface Processes and eXchanges Dynamic Global Vegetation Model is a recent development of the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model with improved representation of fire-vegetation interactions. It allows simultaneous consideration of the effects of changes in climate, CO2 concentration, natural vegetation and fire regime shifts on the continental hydrological cycle. Here the model is assessed for its ability to simulate large-scale spatial and temporal runoff patterns, in order to test its suitability for modelling future global water resources. Comparisons are made against observations of streamflow and a composite dataset of modelled and observed runoff (1986–1995 and are also evaluated against soil moisture data and the Palmer Drought Severity Index. The model captures the main features of the geographical distribution of global runoff, but tends to overestimate runoff in much of the Northern Hemisphere (where this can be somewhat accounted for by freshwater consumption and the unrealistic accumulation of the simulated winter snowpack in permafrost regions and the southern tropics. Interannual variability is represented reasonably well at the large catchment scale, as are seasonal flow timings and monthly high and low flow events. Further improvements to the simulation of intra-annual runoff might be achieved via the addition of river flow routing. Overestimates of runoff in some basins could likely be corrected by the inclusion of transmission losses and direct-channel evaporation.

  12. The Open Global Glacier Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzeion, B.; Maussion, F.

    2017-12-01

    Mountain glaciers are one of the few remaining sub-systems of the global climate system for which no globally applicable, open source, community-driven model exists. Notable examples from the ice sheet community include the Parallel Ice Sheet Model or Elmer/Ice. While the atmospheric modeling community has a long tradition of sharing models (e.g. the Weather Research and Forecasting model) or comparing them (e.g. the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project or CMIP), recent initiatives originating from the glaciological community show a new willingness to better coordinate global research efforts following the CMIP example (e.g. the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project or the Glacier Ice Thickness Estimation Working Group). In the recent past, great advances have been made in the global availability of data and methods relevant for glacier modeling, spanning glacier outlines, automatized glacier centerline identification, bed rock inversion methods, and global topographic data sets. Taken together, these advances now allow the ice dynamics of glaciers to be modeled on a global scale, provided that adequate modeling platforms are available. Here, we present the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), developed to provide a global scale, modular, and open source numerical model framework for consistently simulating past and future global scale glacier change. Global not only in the sense of leading to meaningful results for all glaciers combined, but also for any small ensemble of glaciers, e.g. at the headwater catchment scale. Modular to allow combinations of different approaches to the representation of ice flow and surface mass balance, enabling a new kind of model intercomparison. Open source so that the code can be read and used by anyone and so that new modules can be added and discussed by the community, following the principles of open governance. Consistent in order to provide uncertainty measures at all realizable scales.

  13. Synoptic, Global Mhd Model For The Solar Corona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Ofer; Sokolov, I. V.; Roussev, I. I.; Gombosi, T. I.

    2007-05-01

    The common techniques for mimic the solar corona heating and the solar wind acceleration in global MHD models are as follow. 1) Additional terms in the momentum and energy equations derived from the WKB approximation for the Alfv’en wave turbulence; 2) some empirical heat source in the energy equation; 3) a non-uniform distribution of the polytropic index, γ, used in the energy equation. In our model, we choose the latter approach. However, in order to get a more realistic distribution of γ, we use the empirical Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model to constrain the MHD solution. The WSA model provides the distribution of the asymptotic solar wind speed from the potential field approximation; therefore it also provides the distribution of the kinetic energy. Assuming that far from the Sun the total energy is dominated by the energy of the bulk motion and assuming the conservation of the Bernoulli integral, we can trace the total energy along a magnetic field line to the solar surface. On the surface the gravity is known and the kinetic energy is negligible. Therefore, we can get the surface distribution of γ as a function of the final speed originating from this point. By interpolation γ to spherically uniform value on the source surface, we use this spatial distribution of γ in the energy equation to obtain a self-consistent, steady state MHD solution for the solar corona. We present the model result for different Carrington Rotations.

  14. The global distribution of mineral dust

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tegen, I; Schepanski, K

    2009-01-01

    Dust aerosol particles produced by wind erosion in arid and semi arid regions affect climate and air quality, but the magnitude of these effects is largely unquantified. The major dust source regions include the Sahara, the Arabian and Asian deserts; global annual dust emissions are currently estimated to range between 1000 and 3000 Mt/yr. Dust aerosol can be transported over long distances of thousands of kilometers, e.g. from source regions in the Saharan desert over the North Atlantic, or from the Asian deserts towards the Pacific Ocean. The atmospheric dust load varies considerably on different timescales. While dust aerosol distribution and dust effects are important on global scales, they strongly depend on dust emissions that are controlled on small spatial and temporal scales.

  15. Validation of model predictions of pore-scale fluid distributions during two-phase flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bultreys, Tom; Lin, Qingyang; Gao, Ying; Raeini, Ali Q.; AlRatrout, Ahmed; Bijeljic, Branko; Blunt, Martin J.

    2018-05-01

    Pore-scale two-phase flow modeling is an important technology to study a rock's relative permeability behavior. To investigate if these models are predictive, the calculated pore-scale fluid distributions which determine the relative permeability need to be validated. In this work, we introduce a methodology to quantitatively compare models to experimental fluid distributions in flow experiments visualized with microcomputed tomography. First, we analyzed five repeated drainage-imbibition experiments on a single sample. In these experiments, the exact fluid distributions were not fully repeatable on a pore-by-pore basis, while the global properties of the fluid distribution were. Then two fractional flow experiments were used to validate a quasistatic pore network model. The model correctly predicted the fluid present in more than 75% of pores and throats in drainage and imbibition. To quantify what this means for the relevant global properties of the fluid distribution, we compare the main flow paths and the connectivity across the different pore sizes in the modeled and experimental fluid distributions. These essential topology characteristics matched well for drainage simulations, but not for imbibition. This suggests that the pore-filling rules in the network model we used need to be improved to make reliable predictions of imbibition. The presented analysis illustrates the potential of our methodology to systematically and robustly test two-phase flow models to aid in model development and calibration.

  16. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Møller Larsen, Marcus; Bharati, Pratyush

    -zone spread allowing for 24/7 service delivery and access to resources. Based on comprehensive data we show that providers are likely to establish GDM configurations when clients value access to globally distributed talent pools and speed of service delivery, and in particular when services are highly...

  17. Patterns of inequality: Dynamics of income distribution in USA and global energy consumption distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Anand; Yakovenko, Victor

    2010-03-01

    Applying the principle of entropy maximization, we argued that the distribution of money in a closed economic system should be exponential [1], see also recent review [2]. In this talk, we show that income distribution in USA is exponential for the majority of population (about 97%). However, the high-income tail follows a power law and is highly dynamical, i.e., out of equilibrium. The fraction of income going to the tail swelled to 20% of all income in 2000 and 2006 at the peaks of speculative bubbles followed by spectacular crashes. Next, we analyze the global distribution of energy consumption per capita among different countries. In the first approximation, it is reasonably well captured by the exponential function. Comparing the data for 1990 and 2005, we observe that the distribution is getting closer to the exponential, presumably as a result of globalization of the world economy.[4pt] [1] A. A. Dragulescu and V. M. Yakovenko, Eur. Phys. J. B 17, 723 (2000). [2] V. M. Yakovenko and J. B. Rosser, to appear in Rev. Mod. Phys. (2009), arXiv:0905.1518.

  18. Orchestration of Globally Distributed Knowledge for Innovation in Multinational Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sajadirad, Solmaz; Lassen, Astrid Heidemann

    Conducting a multiple-case study in five companies from Danish industry, this paper explores how multinational companies orchestrate knowledge from their globally distributed subsidiaries for innovation. Comparisons of knowledge orchestration within headquarter and subsidiaries for improvement...... and innovation show that a combination of the dynamic use of inter-firm objects and a well-established knowledge orchestration process underlies knowledge orchestration for innovation in multinational companies, as it advances headquarters’ abilities to effectively acquire, evaluate, disseminate, and utilize...... globally distributed knowledge. This study contributes to the understanding of knowledge orchestration between headquarter and distributed subsidiaries in multinational companies and how it is related to innovation. Specifically, this paper has important implications regarding the use of inter-firm objects...

  19. LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles reconstruct?

    OpenAIRE

    K. Saito; T. Sueyoshi; S. Marchenko; V. Romanovsky; B. Otto-Bliesner; J. Walsh; N. Bigelow; A. Hendricks; K. Yoshikawa

    2013-01-01

    Global-scale frozen ground distribution during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was reconstructed using multi-model ensembles of global climate models, and then compared with evidence-based knowledge and earlier numerical results. Modeled soil temperatures, taken from Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III (PMIP3) simulations, were used to diagnose the subsurface thermal regime and determine underlying frozen ground types for the present-day (pre-industrial; 0 k) and the LGM (...

  20. Globally reasoning about localised security policies in distributed systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hernandez, Alejandro Mario

    In this report, we aim at establishing proper ways for model checking the global security of distributed systems, which are designed consisting of set of localised security policies that enforce specific issues about the security expected. The systems are formally specified following a syntax......, defined in detail in this report, and their behaviour is clearly established by the Semantics, also defined in detail in this report. The systems include the formal attachment of security policies into their locations, whose intended interactions are trapped by the policies, aiming at taking access...... control decisions of the system, and the Semantics also takes care of this. Using the Semantics, a Labelled Transition System (LTS) can be induced for every particular system, and over this LTS some model checking tasks could be done. We identify how this LTS is indeed obtained, and propose an alternative...

  1. Satellite observations of tropospheric ammonia and carbon monoxide: Global distributions, regional correlations and comparisons to model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ammonia (NH3) and carbon monoxide (CO) are primary pollutants emitted to the Earth's atmosphere from common as well as distinct sources associated with anthropogenic and natural activities. The seasonal and global distributions and correlations of NH3 and CO from the Tropospheric...

  2. The Global Turnover Time Distribution of Soil Carbon Derived from a Meta-analysis of Radiocarbon Profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Y.; Randerson, J. T.; Allison, S. D.; Torn, M. S.; Harden, J. W.; Smith, L. J.; van der Voort, T.; Trumbore, S.

    2015-12-01

    Soil is the largest terrestrial carbon reservoir and may influence the sign and magnitude of carbon cycle feedbacks under climate change. Soil carbon turnover times provide information about the sensitivity of carbon pools to changes in inputs and warming. The spatial and vertical distribution of soil carbon turnover times emerges from the interplay between climate, vegetation, and soil properties. Radiocarbon levels of soil organic matter can be used to estimate soil carbon turnover using models that take into account radioactive decay over centuries to millennia and inputs of 14C from atmospheric weapons testing ("bomb carbon") during the second half of the 20th century. By synthesizing more than 200 soil radiocarbon profiles from all major biomes and soil orders, we 1) explored the major controlling factors for soil carbon turnover times of surface and deeper soil layers; 2) developed predictive models (tree-based regression, support vector regression and linear regression models) of Δ14C that depends on depth, climate, vegetation, and soil types; and 3) extrapolated the predictive model to produce the first global distribution of soil carbon turnover times to the depth of 1m. Preliminary results indicated that climate and depth were primary controls of the vertical distribution of Δ14C, contributing to about 70% of the variability in our model. Vegetation and soil order exerted similar level of controls (about 15% each). The predictive model performed reasonably well with an R2 of 0.81 and RMSE (root-mean-squared error) of about 50‰ for topsoil and 100‰ for subsoil, as estimated using cross-validation. Extrapolation of the predictive model to the globe in combination with existing soil carbon information (e.g., Harmonized World Soil Database) indicated that more than half of the global total soil carbon in the top 1m had a turnover time of less than 500 years. Subsoils (30-100cm) had millennium-scale turnover times, with the majority (70%) turning over

  3. A Stochastic After-Taxes Optimisation Model to Support Distribution Network Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fernandes, Rui; Hvolby, Hans-Henrik; Gouveia, Borges

    2012-01-01

    The paper proposes a stochastic model to integrate tax issues into strategic distribution network decisions. Specifically, this study will explore the role of distribution models in business profitability, and how to use the network design to deliver additional bottom-line results, using...... distribution centres located in different countries. The challenge is also to reveal how financial and tax knowledge can help logistic leaders improving the value to their companies under global solutions and sources of business net profitability in a dynamic environment. In particular, based on inventory...

  4. Global model for the lithospheric strength and effective elastic thickness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tesauro, M.; Kaban, M.K.; Cloetingh, S.A.P.L.

    2013-01-01

    Global distribution of the strength and effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithosphere are estimated using physical parameters from recent crustal and lithospheric models. For the Te estimation we apply a new approach, which provides a possibility to take into account variations of Young

  5. Global time-size distribution of volcanic eruptions on Earth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papale, Paolo

    2018-05-01

    Volcanic eruptions differ enormously in their size and impacts, ranging from quiet lava flow effusions along the volcano flanks to colossal events with the potential to affect our entire civilization. Knowledge of the time and size distribution of volcanic eruptions is of obvious relevance for understanding the dynamics and behavior of the Earth system, as well as for defining global volcanic risk. From the analysis of recent global databases of volcanic eruptions extending back to more than 2 million years, I show here that the return times of eruptions with similar magnitude follow an exponential distribution. The associated relative frequency of eruptions with different magnitude displays a power law, scale-invariant distribution over at least six orders of magnitude. These results suggest that similar mechanisms subtend to explosive eruptions from small to colossal, raising concerns on the theoretical possibility to predict the magnitude and impact of impending volcanic eruptions.

  6. Mapping the spatial distribution of global anthropogenic mercury atmospheric emission inventories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Simon J.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pacyna, Jozef M.; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.

    This paper describes the procedures employed to spatially distribute global inventories of anthropogenic emissions of mercury to the atmosphere, prepared by Pacyna, E.G., Pacyna, J.M., Steenhuisen, F., Wilson, S. [2006. Global anthropogenic mercury emission inventory for 2000. Atmospheric Environment, this issue, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.03.041], and briefly discusses the results of this work. A new spatially distributed global emission inventory for the (nominal) year 2000, and a revised version of the 1995 inventory are presented. Emissions estimates for total mercury and major species groups are distributed within latitude/longitude-based grids with a resolution of 1×1 and 0.5×0.5°. A key component in the spatial distribution procedure is the use of population distribution as a surrogate parameter to distribute emissions from sources that cannot be accurately geographically located. In this connection, new gridded population datasets were prepared, based on the CEISIN GPW3 datasets (CIESIN, 2004. Gridded Population of the World (GPW), Version 3. Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT). GPW3 data are available at http://beta.sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/index.jsp). The spatially distributed emissions inventories and population datasets prepared in the course of this work are available on the Internet at www.amap.no/Resources/HgEmissions/

  7. Seasonal distributions of diabatic heating during the First GARP Global Experiment

    OpenAIRE

    Ying Wei, Ming; Johnson, Donald R.; Townsend, Ronald D.

    2011-01-01

    The seasonal and annual global distributions of diabatic heating during the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) are estimated using the isentropic mass continuity equation. The data used are from the FGGE Level IIIa analyses generated by the United States National Meteorological Center. Spatially and temporally coherent diabatic heating distributions are obtained from the isentropic planetary scale mass circulation that is forced by large-scale heat sources and sinks. The diabatic heating in...

  8. Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Randin, Christophe F.; Engler, Robin; Normand, Signe

    2009-01-01

    Mountain ecosystems will likely be affected by global warming during the 21st century, with substantial biodiversity loss predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). Depending on the geographic extent, elevation range, and spatial resolution of data used in making these models, different rates...

  9. BETR global - A geographically-explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacLeod, Matthew; Waldow, Harald von; Tay, Pascal; Armitage, James M.; Woehrnschimmel, Henry; Riley, William J.; McKone, Thomas E.; Hungerbuhler, Konrad

    2011-01-01

    We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15 o x 15 o grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5). - Two new software implementations of the Berkeley-Trent Global Contaminant Fate Model are available. The new model software is illustrated using a case study of the global fate of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

  10. Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Liu, Cheng [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Stewart, Robert N [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

  11. A Discrete Model for HIV Infection with Distributed Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brahim EL Boukari

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We give a consistent discretization of a continuous model of HIV infection, with distributed time delays to express the lag between the times when the virus enters a cell and when the cell becomes infected. The global stability of the steady states of the model is determined and numerical simulations are presented to illustrate our theoretical results.

  12. Global vertical mass transport by clouds - A two-dimensional model study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olofsson, Mats

    1988-05-01

    A two-dimensional global dispersion model, where vertical transport in the troposphere carried out by convective as well as by frontal cloud systems is explicitly treated, is developed from an existing diffusion model. A parameterization scheme for the cloud transport, based on global cloud statistics, is presented. The model has been tested by using Kr-85, Rn-222 and SO 2 as tracers. Comparisons have been made with observed distributions of these tracers, but also with model results without the cloud transport, using eddy diffusion as the primary means of vertical transport. The model results indicate that for trace species with a turnover time of days to weeks, the introduction of cloud-transport gives much more realistic simulations of their vertical distribution. Layers of increased mixing ratio with height, which can be found in real atmosphere, are reproduced in our cloud-transport model profiles, but can never be simulated with a pure eddy diffusion model. The horizontal transport in the model, by advection and eddy diffusion, gives a realistic distribution between the hemispheres of the more long-lived tracers (Kr-85). A combination of vertical transport by convective and frontal cloud systems is shown to improve the model simulations, compared to limiting it to convective transport only. The importance of including cumulus clouds in the convective transport scheme, in addition to the efficient transport by cumulonimbus clouds, is discussed. The model results are shown to be more sensitive to the vertical detrainment distribution profile than to the absolute magnitude of the vertical mass transport. The scavenging processes for SO 2 are parameterized without the introduction of detailed chemistry. An enhanced removal, due to the increased contact with droplets in the in-cloud lifting process, is introduced in the model. (author)

  13. Distributed computing for global health

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva; Schwede, Torsten; Moore, Celia; Smith, Thomas E; Williams, Brian; Grey, François

    2005-01-01

    Distributed computing harnesses the power of thousands of computers within organisations or over the Internet. In order to tackle global health problems, several groups of researchers have begun to use this approach to exceed by far the computing power of a single lab. This event illustrates how companies, research institutes and the general public are contributing their computing power to these efforts, and what impact this may have on a range of world health issues. Grids for neglected diseases Vincent Breton, CNRS/EGEE This talk introduces the topic of distributed computing, explaining the similarities and differences between Grid computing, volunteer computing and supercomputing, and outlines the potential of Grid computing for tackling neglected diseases where there is little economic incentive for private R&D efforts. Recent results on malaria drug design using the Grid infrastructure of the EU-funded EGEE project, which is coordinated by CERN and involves 70 partners in Europe, the US and Russi...

  14. The GEWEX LandFlux project: evaluation of model evaporation using tower-based and globally gridded forcing data

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, M. F.; Ershadi, A.; Jimenez, C.; Miralles, D. G.; Michel, D.; Wood, E. F.

    2016-01-01

    Determining the spatial distribution and temporal development of evaporation at regional and global scales is required to improve our understanding of the coupled water and energy cycles and to better monitor any changes in observed trends and variability of linked hydrological processes. With recent international efforts guiding the development of long-term and globally distributed flux estimates, continued product assessments are required to inform upon the selection of suitable model structures and also to establish the appropriateness of these multi-model simulations for global application. In support of the objectives of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Exchanges (GEWEX) LandFlux project, four commonly used evaporation models are evaluated against data from tower-based eddy-covariance observations, distributed across a range of biomes and climate zones. The selected schemes include the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) approach, the Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model, the Penman-Monteith-based Mu model (PM-Mu) and the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM). Here we seek to examine the fidelity of global evaporation simulations by examining the multi-model response to varying sources of forcing data. To do this, we perform parallel and collocated model simulations using tower-based data together with a global-scale grid-based forcing product. Through quantifying the multi-model response to high-quality tower data, a better understanding of the subsequent model response to the coarse-scale globally gridded data that underlies the LandFlux product can be obtained, while also providing a relative evaluation and assessment of model performance. Using surface flux observations from 45 globally distributed eddy-covariance stations as independent metrics of performance, the tower-based analysis indicated that PT-JPL provided the highest overall statistical performance (0.72; 61 W m-2; 0.65), followed closely by GLEAM (0.68; 64 W m-2

  15. Distribution of mesozooplankton biomass in the global ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Moriarty

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Mesozooplankton are cosmopolitan within the sunlit layers of the global ocean. They are important in the pelagic food web, having a significant feedback to primary production through their consumption of phytoplankton and microzooplankton. In many regions of the global ocean, they are also the primary contributors to vertical particle flux in the oceans. Through both they affect the biogeochemical cycling of carbon and other nutrients in the oceans. Little, however, is known about their global distribution and biomass. While global maps of mesozooplankton biomass do exist in the literature, they are usually in the form of hand-drawn maps for which the original data associated with these maps are not readily available. The dataset presented in this synthesis has been in development since the late 1990s, is an integral part of the Coastal and Oceanic Plankton Ecology, Production, and Observation Database (COPEPOD, and is now also part of a wider community effort to provide a global picture of carbon biomass data for key plankton functional types, in particular to support the development of marine ecosystem models. A total of 153 163 biomass values were collected, from a variety of sources, for mesozooplankton. Of those 2% were originally recorded as dry mass, 26% as wet mass, 5% as settled volume, and 68% as displacement volume. Using a variety of non-linear biomass conversions from the literature, the data have been converted from their original units to carbon biomass. Depth-integrated values were then used to calculate an estimate of mesozooplankton global biomass. Global epipelagic mesozooplankton biomass, to a depth of 200 m, had a mean of 5.9 μg C L−1, median of 2.7 μg C L−1 and a standard deviation of 10.6 μg C L−1. The global annual average estimate of mesozooplankton in the top 200 m, based on the median value, was 0.19 Pg C. Biomass was highest in the Northern Hemisphere, and there were slight decreases from polar oceans (40

  16. [Prediction and spatial distribution of recruitment trees of natural secondary forest based on geographically weighted Poisson model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling Yu; Liu, Zhao Gang

    2017-12-01

    Based on the data collected from 108 permanent plots of the forest resources survey in Maoershan Experimental Forest Farm during 2004-2016, this study investigated the spatial distribution of recruitment trees in natural secondary forest by global Poisson regression and geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) with four bandwidths of 2.5, 5, 10 and 15 km. The simulation effects of the 5 regressions and the factors influencing the recruitment trees in stands were analyzed, a description was given to the spatial autocorrelation of the regression residuals on global and local levels using Moran's I. The results showed that the spatial distribution of the number of natural secondary forest recruitment was significantly influenced by stands and topographic factors, especially average DBH. The GWPR model with small scale (2.5 km) had high accuracy of model fitting, a large range of model parameter estimates was generated, and the localized spatial distribution effect of the model parameters was obtained. The GWPR model at small scale (2.5 and 5 km) had produced a small range of model residuals, and the stability of the model was improved. The global spatial auto-correlation of the GWPR model residual at the small scale (2.5 km) was the lowe-st, and the local spatial auto-correlation was significantly reduced, in which an ideal spatial distribution pattern of small clusters with different observations was formed. The local model at small scale (2.5 km) was much better than the global model in the simulation effect on the spatial distribution of recruitment tree number.

  17. Global quantity for dyons with various charge distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koh, I.G.; Kim, Y.

    1980-06-01

    The spatial volume integral of Tr *F F characterizes the dyons globally. This integral is investigated for the dyons with various electric and magnetic charge distributions, which can be probed by the scattering of the test particle in these dyon fields. (author)

  18. GEM - The Global Earthquake Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, A.

    2009-04-01

    Over 500,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. In many seismic regions, no hazard and risk models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts, or available only for commercial purposes. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers the need for an openly accessible risk management tool. GEM is an internationally sanctioned public private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake hazard and risk, and will be designed to serve as the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, at global, regional and local scale. The work is organized in three modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic impact. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, building vulnerability, and the distribution of population and of exposed values and facilities. The socio-economic impact module delivers tools for making educated decisions to mitigate and manage risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool, with open source code and a map-based graphical interface. The underlying data will be open wherever possible, and its modular input and output will be adapted to multiple user groups: scientists and engineers, risk managers and decision makers in the public and private sectors, and the public-at- large. GEM will be the first global model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence. Its development will occur in a

  19. Quantification of effective plant rooting depth: advancing global hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Y.; Donohue, R. J.; McVicar, T.

    2017-12-01

    Plant rooting depth (Zr) is a key parameter in hydrological and biogeochemical models, yet the global spatial distribution of Zr is largely unknown due to the difficulties in its direct measurement. Moreover, Zr observations are usually only representative of a single plant or several plants, which can differ greatly from the effective Zr over a modelling unit (e.g., catchment or grid-box). Here, we provide a global parameterization of an analytical Zr model that balances the marginal carbon cost and benefit of deeper roots, and produce a climatological (i.e., 1982-2010 average) global Zr map. To test the Zr estimates, we apply the estimated Zr in a highly transparent hydrological model (i.e., the Budyko-Choudhury-Porporato (BCP) model) to estimate mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) across the globe. We then compare the estimated E with both water balance-based E observations at 32 major catchments and satellite grid-box retrievals across the globe. Our results show that the BCP model, when implemented with Zr estimated herein, optimally reproduced the spatial pattern of E at both scales and provides improved model outputs when compared to BCP model results from two already existing global Zr datasets. These results suggest that our Zr estimates can be effectively used in state-of-the-art hydrological models, and potentially biogeochemical models, where the determination of Zr currently largely relies on biome type-based look-up tables.

  20. SEP modeling based on global heliospheric models at the CCMC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mays, M. L.; Luhmann, J. G.; Odstrcil, D.; Bain, H. M.; Schwadron, N.; Gorby, M.; Li, Y.; Lee, K.; Zeitlin, C.; Jian, L. K.; Lee, C. O.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Galvin, A. B.

    2017-12-01

    Heliospheric models provide contextual information of conditions in the heliosphere, including the background solar wind conditions and shock structures, and are used as input to SEP models, providing an essential tool for understanding SEP properties. The global 3D MHD WSA-ENLIL+Cone model provides a time-dependent background heliospheric description, into which a spherical shaped hydrodynamic CME can be inserted. ENLIL simulates solar wind parameters and additionally one can extract the magnetic topologies of observer-connected magnetic field lines and all plasma and shock properties along those field lines. An accurate representation of the background solar wind is necessary for simulating transients. ENLIL simulations also drive SEP models such as the Solar Energetic Particle Model (SEPMOD) (Luhmann et al. 2007, 2010) and the Energetic Particle Radiation Environment Module (EPREM) (Schwadron et al. 2010). The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is in the process of making these SEP models available to the community and offering a system to run SEP models driven by a variety of heliospheric models available at CCMC. SEPMOD injects protons onto a sequence of observer field lines at intensities dependent on the connected shock source strength which are then integrated at the observer to approximate the proton flux. EPREM couples with MHD models such as ENLIL and computes energetic particle distributions based on the focused transport equation along a Lagrangian grid of nodes that propagate out with the solar wind. The coupled SEP models allow us to derive the longitudinal distribution of SEP profiles of different types of events throughout the heliosphere. The coupled ENLIL and SEP models allow us to derive the longitudinal distribution of SEP profiles of different types of events throughout the heliosphere. In this presentation we demonstrate several case studies of SEP event modeling at different observers based on WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations.

  1. LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles perform reconstruction?

    OpenAIRE

    Saito, K.; Sueyoshi, T.; Marchenko, S.; Romanovsky, V.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Walsh, J.; Bigelow, N.; Hendricks, A.; Yoshikawa, K.

    2013-01-01

    Here, global-scale frozen ground distribution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has been reconstructed using multi-model ensembles of global climate models, and then compared with evidence-based knowledge and earlier numerical results. Modeled soil temperatures, taken from Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase III (PMIP3) simulations, were used to diagnose the subsurface thermal regime and determine underlying frozen ground types for the present day (pre-industrial; 0 kya) an...

  2. Global distribution of pauses observed with satellite measurements

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    We present global distribution of altitudes and temperatures of these pauses observed with long-term space borne high- ... metries between northern and southern hemispheres continue up to the mesopause. We analyze ..... the mean temperature increases from the equa- .... monsoon circulation causes zonal asymmetry in.

  3. In-cloud oxalate formation in the global troposphere: a 3-D modeling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Myriokefalitakis

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Organic acids attract increasing attention as contributors to atmospheric acidity, secondary organic aerosol mass and aerosol hygroscopicity. Oxalic acid is globally the most abundant dicarboxylic acid, formed via chemical oxidation of gas-phase precursors in the aqueous phase of aerosols and droplets. Its lifecycle and atmospheric global distribution remain highly uncertain and are the focus of this study. The first global spatial and temporal distribution of oxalate, simulated using a state-of-the-art aqueous-phase chemical scheme embedded within the global 3-dimensional chemistry/transport model TM4-ECPL, is here presented. The model accounts for comprehensive gas-phase chemistry and its coupling with major aerosol constituents (including secondary organic aerosol. Model results are consistent with ambient observations of oxalate at rural and remote locations (slope = 1.16 ± 0.14, r2 = 0.36, N = 114 and suggest that aqueous-phase chemistry contributes significantly to the global atmospheric burden of secondary organic aerosol. In TM4-ECPL most oxalate is formed in-cloud and less than 5 % is produced in aerosol water. About 62 % of the oxalate is removed via wet deposition, 30 % by in-cloud reaction with hydroxyl radical, 4 % by in-cloud reaction with nitrate radical and 4 % by dry deposition. The in-cloud global oxalate net chemical production is calculated to be about 21–37 Tg yr−1 with almost 79 % originating from biogenic hydrocarbons, mainly isoprene. This condensed phase net source of oxalate in conjunction with a global mean turnover time against deposition of about 5 days, maintain oxalate's global tropospheric burden of 0.2–0.3 Tg, i.e. 0.05–0.1 Tg-C that is about 5–9 % of model-calculated water soluble organic carbon burden.

  4. Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gisselle Yang Xie

    Full Text Available Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd, a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary, including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific and also separately per region (region-specific. One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas

  5. Working toward integrated models of alpine plant distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Bradley Z; Randin, Christophe F; Boulangeat, Isabelle; Lavergne, Sébastien; Thuiller, Wilfried; Choler, Philippe

    2013-10-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) have been frequently employed to forecast the response of alpine plants to global changes. Efforts to model alpine plant distribution have thus far been primarily based on a correlative approach, in which ecological processes are implicitly addressed through a statistical relationship between observed species occurrences and environmental predictors. Recent evidence, however, highlights the shortcomings of correlative SDMs, especially in alpine landscapes where plant species tend to be decoupled from atmospheric conditions in micro-topographic habitats and are particularly exposed to geomorphic disturbances. While alpine plants respond to the same limiting factors as plants found at lower elevations, alpine environments impose a particular set of scale-dependent and hierarchical drivers that shape the realized niche of species and that require explicit consideration in a modelling context. Several recent studies in the European Alps have successfully integrated both correlative and process-based elements into distribution models of alpine plants, but for the time being a single integrative modelling framework that includes all key drivers remains elusive. As a first step in working toward a comprehensive integrated model applicable to alpine plant communities, we propose a conceptual framework that structures the primary mechanisms affecting alpine plant distributions. We group processes into four categories, including multi-scalar abiotic drivers, gradient dependent species interactions, dispersal and spatial-temporal plant responses to disturbance. Finally, we propose a methodological framework aimed at developing an integrated model to better predict alpine plant distribution.

  6. The GEWEX LandFlux project: evaluation of model evaporation using tower-based and globally-gridded forcing data

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, M. F.; Ershadi, A.; Jimenez, C.; Miralles, D. G.; Michel, D.; Wood, E. F.

    2015-08-01

    Determining the spatial distribution and temporal development of evaporation at regional and global scales is required to improve our understanding of the coupled water and energy cycles and to better monitor any changes in observed trends and variability of linked hydrological processes. With recent international efforts guiding the development of long-term and globally distributed flux estimates, continued product assessments are required to inform upon the selection of suitable model structures and also to establish the appropriateness of these multi-model simulations for global application. In support of the objectives of the GEWEX LandFlux project, four commonly used evaporation models are evaluated against data from tower-based eddy-covariance observations, distributed across a range of biomes and climate zones. The selected schemes include the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) approach, the Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model, the Penman-Monteith based Mu model (PM-Mu) and the Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology (GLEAM). Here we seek to examine the fidelity of global evaporation simulations by examining the multi-model response to varying sources of forcing data. To do this, we perform parallel and collocated model simulations using tower-based data together with a global-scale grid-based forcing product. Through quantifying the multi-model response to high-quality tower data, a better understanding of the subsequent model response to coarse-scale globally gridded data that underlies the LandFlux product can be obtained, while also providing a relative evaluation and assessment of model performance. Using surface flux observations from forty-five globally distributed eddy-covariance stations as independent metrics of performance, the tower-based analysis indicated that PT-JPL provided the highest overally statistical performance (0.72; 61 W m-2; 0.65), followed closely by GLEAM (0.68; 64 W m-2; 0.62), with values in

  7. Global ice sheet modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, T.J.; Fastook, J.L.

    1994-05-01

    The University of Maine conducted this study for Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate modeling task for site characterization of the potential nuclear waste respository site at Yucca Mountain, NV. The purpose of the study was to develop a global ice sheet dynamics model that will forecast the three-dimensional configuration of global ice sheets for specific climate change scenarios. The objective of the third (final) year of the work was to produce ice sheet data for glaciation scenarios covering the next 100,000 years. This was accomplished using both the map-plane and flowband solutions of our time-dependent, finite-element gridpoint model. The theory and equations used to develop the ice sheet models are presented. Three future scenarios were simulated by the model and results are discussed

  8. Longitudinal observations of globally distributed design teams: The impacts on Product Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taylor, Thomas Paul; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema

    2015-01-01

    Factors impacting the success of Product Development (PD) projects are intensified when teams are distributed globally, making it a challenging task for project management to deal with effects on time, cost and quality. It is important for project management to understand when challenges......, such as communication difficulties, a lack of common vision between team members or issues related to documentation, may occur during PD projects, enabling them to take the necessary preventative action (Edmondson and Nembhard, 2009). When investigating factors impacting the success of PD, the majority of research...... studies of globally distributed design teams in PD projects. This paper aims to contribute to the further understanding of the factors impacting the success of PD projects when teams are distributed globally. With the results from a longitudinal observational study over 8 months, the factors impacting...

  9. Modelling Vulnerability and Range Shifts in Ant Communities Responding to Future Global Warming in Temperate Forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Tae-Sung; Li, Fengqing; Kim, Sung-Soo; Chun, Jung Hwa; Park, Young-Seuk

    2016-01-01

    Global warming is likely leading to species' distributional shifts, resulting in changes in local community compositions and diversity patterns. In this study, we applied species distribution models to evaluate the potential impacts of temperature increase on ant communities in Korean temperate forests, by testing hypotheses that 1) the risk of extinction of forest ant species would increase over time, and 2) the changes in species distribution ranges could drive upward movements of ant communities and further alter patterns of species richness. We sampled ant communities at 335 evenly distributed sites across South Korea and modelled the future distribution range for each species using generalized additive models. To account for spatial autocorrelation, autocovariate regressions were conducted prior to generalized additive models. Among 29 common ant species, 12 species were estimated to shrink their suitable geographic areas, whereas five species would benefit from future global warming. Species richness was highest at low altitudes in the current period, and it was projected to be highest at the mid-altitudes in the 2080s, resulting in an upward movement of 4.9 m yr-1. This altered the altitudinal pattern of species richness from a monotonic-decrease curve (common in temperate regions) to a bell-shaped curve (common in tropical regions). Overall, ant communities in temperate forests are vulnerable to the on-going global warming and their altitudinal movements are similar to other faunal communities.

  10. A GIS model predicting potential distributions of a lineage: a test case on hermit spiders (Nephilidae: Nephilengys).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Năpăruş, Magdalena; Kuntner, Matjaž

    2012-01-01

    Although numerous studies model species distributions, these models are almost exclusively on single species, while studies of evolutionary lineages are preferred as they by definition study closely related species with shared history and ecology. Hermit spiders, genus Nephilengys, represent an ecologically important but relatively species-poor lineage with a globally allopatric distribution. Here, we model Nephilengys global habitat suitability based on known localities and four ecological parameters. We geo-referenced 751 localities for the four most studied Nephilengys species: N. cruentata (Africa, New World), N. livida (Madagascar), N. malabarensis (S-SE Asia), and N. papuana (Australasia). For each locality we overlaid four ecological parameters: elevation, annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and land cover. We used linear backward regression within ArcGIS to select two best fit parameters per species model, and ModelBuilder to map areas of high, moderate and low habitat suitability for each species within its directional distribution. For Nephilengys cruentata suitable habitats are mid elevation tropics within Africa (natural range), a large part of Brazil and the Guianas (area of synanthropic spread), and even North Africa, Mediterranean, and Arabia. Nephilengys livida is confined to its known range with suitable habitats being mid-elevation natural and cultivated lands. Nephilengys malabarensis, however, ranges across the Equator throughout Asia where the model predicts many areas of high ecological suitability in the wet tropics. Its directional distribution suggests the species may potentially spread eastwards to New Guinea where the suitable areas of N. malabarensis largely surpass those of the native N. papuana, a species that prefers dry forests of Australian (sub)tropics. Our model is a customizable GIS tool intended to predict current and future potential distributions of globally distributed terrestrial lineages. Its predictive

  11. A GIS model predicting potential distributions of a lineage: a test case on hermit spiders (Nephilidae: Nephilengys.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena Năpăruş

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Although numerous studies model species distributions, these models are almost exclusively on single species, while studies of evolutionary lineages are preferred as they by definition study closely related species with shared history and ecology. Hermit spiders, genus Nephilengys, represent an ecologically important but relatively species-poor lineage with a globally allopatric distribution. Here, we model Nephilengys global habitat suitability based on known localities and four ecological parameters. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We geo-referenced 751 localities for the four most studied Nephilengys species: N. cruentata (Africa, New World, N. livida (Madagascar, N. malabarensis (S-SE Asia, and N. papuana (Australasia. For each locality we overlaid four ecological parameters: elevation, annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and land cover. We used linear backward regression within ArcGIS to select two best fit parameters per species model, and ModelBuilder to map areas of high, moderate and low habitat suitability for each species within its directional distribution. For Nephilengys cruentata suitable habitats are mid elevation tropics within Africa (natural range, a large part of Brazil and the Guianas (area of synanthropic spread, and even North Africa, Mediterranean, and Arabia. Nephilengys livida is confined to its known range with suitable habitats being mid-elevation natural and cultivated lands. Nephilengys malabarensis, however, ranges across the Equator throughout Asia where the model predicts many areas of high ecological suitability in the wet tropics. Its directional distribution suggests the species may potentially spread eastwards to New Guinea where the suitable areas of N. malabarensis largely surpass those of the native N. papuana, a species that prefers dry forests of Australian (subtropics. CONCLUSIONS: Our model is a customizable GIS tool intended to predict current and future potential

  12. Geophysical Global Modeling for Extreme Crop Production Using Photosynthesis Models Coupled to Ocean SST Dipoles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, D.

    2016-12-01

    Climate change appears to have manifested itself along with abnormal meteorological disasters. Instability caused by drought and flood disasters is producing poor harvests because of poor photosynthesis and pollination. Fluctuations of extreme phenomena are increasing rapidly because amplitudes of change are much greater than average trends. A fundamental cause of these phenomena derives from increased stored energy inside ocean waters. Geophysical and biochemical modeling of crop production can elucidate complex mechanisms under seasonal climate anomalies. The models have progressed through their combination with global climate reanalysis, environmental satellite data, and harvest data on the ground. This study examined adaptation of crop production to advancing abnormal phenomena related to global climate change. Global environmental surface conditions, i.e., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. Basic streams of the concepts of modeling rely upon continental energy flow and carbon circulation among crop vegetation, land surface atmosphere combining energy advection from ocean surface anomalies. Global environmental surface conditions, e.g., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. The method of validating the modeling relies upon carbon partitioning in biomass and grains through carbon flow by photosynthesis using carbon dioxide unit in photosynthesis. Results of computations done for this study show global distributions of actual evaporation, stomata opening, and photosynthesis, presenting mechanisms related to advection effects from SST anomalies in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans on global and continental croplands. For North America, climate effects appear clearly in severe atmospheric phenomena, which have caused drought and forest fires

  13. The GEWEX LandFlux project: evaluation of model evaporation using tower-based and globally gridded forcing data

    KAUST Repository

    McCabe, Matthew; Ershadi, Ali; Jimenez, C.; Miralles, Diego G.; Michel, D.; Wood, E. F.

    2016-01-01

    Determining the spatial distribution and temporal development of evaporation at regional and global scales is required to improve our understanding of the coupled water and energy cycles and to better monitor any changes in observed trends and variability of linked hydrological processes. With recent international efforts guiding the development of long-term and globally distributed flux estimates, continued product assessments are required to inform upon the selection of suitable model structures and also to establish the appropriateness of these multi-model simulations for global application. In support of the objectives of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Exchanges (GEWEX) LandFlux project, four commonly used evaporation models are evaluated against data from tower-based eddy-covariance observations, distributed across a range of biomes and climate zones. The selected schemes include the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) approach, the Priestley–Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model, the Penman–Monteith-based Mu model (PM-Mu) and the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM). Here we seek to examine the fidelity of global evaporation simulations by examining the multi-model response to varying sources of forcing data. To do this, we perform parallel and collocated model simulations using tower-based data together with a global-scale grid-based forcing product. Through quantifying the multi-model response to high-quality tower data, a better understanding of the subsequent model response to the coarse-scale globally gridded data that underlies the LandFlux product can be obtained, while also providing a relative evaluation and assessment of model performance.

    Using surface flux observations from 45 globally distributed eddy-covariance stations as independent metrics of performance, the tower-based analysis indicated that PT-JPL provided the highest overall statistical performance (0.72; 61 W m−2; 0.65), followed

  14. The GEWEX LandFlux project: evaluation of model evaporation using tower-based and globally gridded forcing data

    KAUST Repository

    McCabe, Matthew

    2016-01-26

    Determining the spatial distribution and temporal development of evaporation at regional and global scales is required to improve our understanding of the coupled water and energy cycles and to better monitor any changes in observed trends and variability of linked hydrological processes. With recent international efforts guiding the development of long-term and globally distributed flux estimates, continued product assessments are required to inform upon the selection of suitable model structures and also to establish the appropriateness of these multi-model simulations for global application. In support of the objectives of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Exchanges (GEWEX) LandFlux project, four commonly used evaporation models are evaluated against data from tower-based eddy-covariance observations, distributed across a range of biomes and climate zones. The selected schemes include the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) approach, the Priestley–Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model, the Penman–Monteith-based Mu model (PM-Mu) and the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM). Here we seek to examine the fidelity of global evaporation simulations by examining the multi-model response to varying sources of forcing data. To do this, we perform parallel and collocated model simulations using tower-based data together with a global-scale grid-based forcing product. Through quantifying the multi-model response to high-quality tower data, a better understanding of the subsequent model response to the coarse-scale globally gridded data that underlies the LandFlux product can be obtained, while also providing a relative evaluation and assessment of model performance.

    Using surface flux observations from 45 globally distributed eddy-covariance stations as independent metrics of performance, the tower-based analysis indicated that PT-JPL provided the highest overall statistical performance (0.72; 61 W m−2; 0.65), followed

  15. Cloud manufacturing distributed computing technologies for global and sustainable manufacturing

    CERN Document Server

    Mehnen, Jörn

    2013-01-01

    Global networks, which are the primary pillars of the modern manufacturing industry and supply chains, can only cope with the new challenges, requirements and demands when supported by new computing and Internet-based technologies. Cloud Manufacturing: Distributed Computing Technologies for Global and Sustainable Manufacturing introduces a new paradigm for scalable service-oriented sustainable and globally distributed manufacturing systems.   The eleven chapters in this book provide an updated overview of the latest technological development and applications in relevant research areas.  Following an introduction to the essential features of Cloud Computing, chapters cover a range of methods and applications such as the factors that actually affect adoption of the Cloud Computing technology in manufacturing companies and new geometrical simplification method to stream 3-Dimensional design and manufacturing data via the Internet. This is further supported case studies and real life data for Waste Electrical ...

  16. Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, Philip J; Jongman, Brenden; Weiland, Frederiek Sperna; Winsemius, Hessel C; Bouwman, Arno; Ligtvoet, Willem; Van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc F P

    2013-01-01

    Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global flood risk maps, based on numerous flood return-periods. Validation results indicate that the model simulates interannual fluctuations in flood impacts well. The cascade involves: hydrological and hydraulic modelling; extreme value statistics; inundation modelling; flood impact modelling; and estimating annual expected impacts. The initial results estimate global impacts for several indicators, for example annual expected exposed population (169 million); and annual expected exposed GDP ($1383 billion). These results are relatively insensitive to the extreme value distribution employed to estimate low frequency flood volumes. However, they are extremely sensitive to the assumed flood protection standard; developing a database of such standards should be a research priority. Also, results are sensitive to the use of two different climate forcing datasets. The impact model can easily accommodate new, user-defined, impact indicators. We envisage several applications, for example: identifying risk hotspots; calculating macro-scale risk for the insurance industry and large companies; and assessing potential benefits (and costs) of adaptation measures. (letter)

  17. Potential distribution of Podocnemis lewyana (Reptilia: Podocnemididae) and its possible fluctuation under different global climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz Yusty, Carlos; Restrepo, Adriana; Paez, Vivian P

    2014-01-01

    We implemented a species distribution modelling approach to establish the potential distribution of Podocnemis lewyana, to explore the climatic factors that may influence the species' distribution and to evaluate possible changes in distribution under future climate scenarios. The distribution models predicted a continuous distribution from south to north along the Magdalena River, from Rivera and Palermo in the Department of Huila to the departments of Atlantico and Magdalena in the north. Temperature was the variable most influential in the distribution of P. lewyana; this species tends to be present in warm regions with low temperature variability. The distribution model predicted an increase in the geographic range of P. lewyana under climate change scenarios. However, taking into account the habitat preferences of this species and its strong association with water, this result should be treated with caution since the model considered only terrestrial climatic variables. Given the life history characteristics of this species (temperature dependent sex determination, high pivotal temperature and a very narrow transition range) and the negative effect of changes in hydrological regimes on embryo survival, expansion of the potential distribution of P. lewyana in the future does not mean that the species will not be affected by global climate change.

  18. Global Land Use Regression Model for Nitrogen Dioxide Air Pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larkin, Andrew; Geddes, Jeffrey A; Martin, Randall V; Xiao, Qingyang; Liu, Yang; Marshall, Julian D; Brauer, Michael; Hystad, Perry

    2017-06-20

    Nitrogen dioxide is a common air pollutant with growing evidence of health impacts independent of other common pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter. However, the worldwide distribution of NO 2 exposure and associated impacts on health is still largely uncertain. To advance global exposure estimates we created a global nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) land use regression model for 2011 using annual measurements from 5,220 air monitors in 58 countries. The model captured 54% of global NO 2 variation, with a mean absolute error of 3.7 ppb. Regional performance varied from R 2 = 0.42 (Africa) to 0.67 (South America). Repeated 10% cross-validation using bootstrap sampling (n = 10,000) demonstrated a robust performance with respect to air monitor sampling in North America, Europe, and Asia (adjusted R 2 within 2%) but not for Africa and Oceania (adjusted R 2 within 11%) where NO 2 monitoring data are sparse. The final model included 10 variables that captured both between and within-city spatial gradients in NO 2 concentrations. Variable contributions differed between continental regions, but major roads within 100 m and satellite-derived NO 2 were consistently the strongest predictors. The resulting model can be used for global risk assessments and health studies, particularly in countries without existing NO 2 monitoring data or models.

  19. Temperature drives global patterns in forest biomass distribution in leaves, stems, and roots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reich, Peter B; Luo, Yunjian; Bradford, John B; Poorter, Hendrik; Perry, Charles H; Oleksyn, Jacek

    2014-09-23

    Whether the fraction of total forest biomass distributed in roots, stems, or leaves varies systematically across geographic gradients remains unknown despite its importance for understanding forest ecology and modeling global carbon cycles. It has been hypothesized that plants should maintain proportionally more biomass in the organ that acquires the most limiting resource. Accordingly, we hypothesize greater biomass distribution in roots and less in stems and foliage in increasingly arid climates and in colder environments at high latitudes. Such a strategy would increase uptake of soil water in dry conditions and of soil nutrients in cold soils, where they are at low supply and are less mobile. We use a large global biomass dataset (>6,200 forests from 61 countries, across a 40 °C gradient in mean annual temperature) to address these questions. Climate metrics involving temperature were better predictors of biomass partitioning than those involving moisture availability, because, surprisingly, fractional distribution of biomass to roots or foliage was unrelated to aridity. In contrast, in increasingly cold climates, the proportion of total forest biomass in roots was greater and in foliage was smaller for both angiosperm and gymnosperm forests. These findings support hypotheses about adaptive strategies of forest trees to temperature and provide biogeographically explicit relationships to improve ecosystem and earth system models. They also will allow, for the first time to our knowledge, representations of root carbon pools that consider biogeographic differences, which are useful for quantifying whole-ecosystem carbon stocks and cycles and for assessing the impact of climate change on forest carbon dynamics.

  20. On numerical simulation of the global distribution of sulfate aerosol produced by a large volcanic eruption

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pudykiewicz, J.A.; Dastoor, A.P. [Atmospheric Environment Service, Quebec (Canada)

    1994-12-31

    Volcanic eruptions play an important role in the global sulfur cycle of the Earth`s atmosphere and can significantly perturb the global atmospheric chemistry. The large amount of sulfate aerosol produced by the oxidation of SO{sub 2} injected into the atmosphere during volcanic eruptions also has a relatively big influence on the radiative equilibrium of the Earth`s climatic system. The submicron particles of the sulfate aerosol reflect solar radiation more effectively than they trap radiation in the infrared range. The effect of this is observed as cooling of the Earth`s surface. The modification of the global radiation budget following volcanic eruption can subsequently cause significant fluctuations of atmospheric variables on a subclimatic scale. The resulting perturbation of weather patterns has been observed and well documented since the eruptions of Mt. Krakatau and Mt. Tambora. The impact of the sulfate aerosol from volcanic eruptions on the radiative equilibrium of the Earth`s atmosphere was also confirmed by the studies done with Global Circulation Models designed to simulate climate. The objective of the present paper is to present a simple and effective method to estimate the global distribution of the sulfate aerosol produced as a consequence of volcanic eruptions. In this study we will present results of the simulation of global distribution of sulfate aerosol from the eruption of Mt Pinatubo.

  1. Distributions and climate effects of atmospheric aerosols from the preindustrial era to 2100 along Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs simulated using the global aerosol model SPRINTARS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Takemura

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Global distributions and associated climate effects of atmospheric aerosols were simulated using a global aerosol climate model, SPRINTARS, from 1850 to the present day and projected forward to 2100. Aerosol emission inventories used by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 were applied to this study. Scenarios based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs were used for the future projection. Aerosol loading in the atmosphere has already peaked and is now reducing in Europe and North America. However, in Asia where rapid economic growth is ongoing, aerosol loading is estimated to reach a maximum in the first half of this century. Atmospheric aerosols originating from the burning of biomass have maintained high loadings throughout the 21st century in Africa, according to the RCPs. Evolution of the adjusted forcing by direct and indirect aerosol effects over time generally correspond to the aerosol loading. The probable future pathways of global mean forcing differ based on the aerosol direct effect for different RCPs. Because aerosol forcing will be close to the preindustrial level by the end of the 21st century for all RCPs despite the continuous increases in greenhouse gases, global warming will be accelerated with reduced aerosol negative forcing.

  2. Global phenomenological optical model potential for nucleon-actinide reactions at energies up to 300 MeV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han Yinlu; Liang Haiying; Guo Hairui; Shen Qingbiao; Xu Yongli

    2010-01-01

    A set of new global phenomenological optical model potential parameters for the actinide region with incident nucleon energies from 1 keV up to 300 MeV is obtained. They are based on a smooth, unique functional form for the energy dependence of the potential depths and on physically constrained geometry parameters. The available experimental data including the neutron total cross sections, nonelastic cross sections, elastic scattering cross sections, elastic scattering angular distributions, and proton reaction cross sections and elastic scattering angular distributions of 232 Th and 238 U are used. The new nucleon global optical model potential parameters obtained are analyzed and used to analyze the experimental data of nucleon-actinide reactions. It is found that the present form of the global optical model potential could reproduce both the neutron and the proton experimental data.

  3. A Distributed Snow Evolution Modeling System (SnowModel)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liston, G. E.; Elder, K.

    2004-12-01

    A spatially distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) has been specifically designed to be applicable over a wide range of snow landscapes, climates, and conditions. To reach this goal, SnowModel is composed of four sub-models: MicroMet defines the meteorological forcing conditions, EnBal calculates surface energy exchanges, SnowMass simulates snow depth and water-equivalent evolution, and SnowTran-3D accounts for snow redistribution by wind. While other distributed snow models exist, SnowModel is unique in that it includes a well-tested blowing-snow sub-model (SnowTran-3D) for application in windy arctic, alpine, and prairie environments where snowdrifts are common. These environments comprise 68% of the seasonally snow-covered Northern Hemisphere land surface. SnowModel also accounts for snow processes occurring in forested environments (e.g., canopy interception related processes). SnowModel is designed to simulate snow-related physical processes occurring at spatial scales of 5-m and greater, and temporal scales of 1-hour and greater. These include: accumulation from precipitation; wind redistribution and sublimation; loading, unloading, and sublimation within forest canopies; snow-density evolution; and snowpack ripening and melt. To enhance its wide applicability, SnowModel includes the physical calculations required to simulate snow evolution within each of the global snow classes defined by Sturm et al. (1995), e.g., tundra, taiga, alpine, prairie, maritime, and ephemeral snow covers. The three, 25-km by 25-km, Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX) mesoscale study areas (MSAs: Fraser, North Park, and Rabbit Ears) are used as SnowModel simulation examples to highlight model strengths, weaknesses, and features in forested, semi-forested, alpine, and shrubland environments.

  4. Modeling Global Urbanization Supported by Nighttime Light Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Urbanization, a major driver of global change, profoundly impacts our physical and social world, for example, altering carbon cycling and climate. Understanding these consequences for better scientific insights and effective decision-making unarguably requires accurate information on urban extent and its spatial distributions. In this study, we developed a cluster-based method to estimate the optimal thresholds and map urban extents from the nighttime light remote sensing data, extended this method to the global domain by developing a computational method (parameterization) to estimate the key parameters in the cluster-based method, and built a consistent 20-year global urban map series to evaluate the time-reactive nature of global urbanization (e.g. 2000 in Fig. 1). Supported by urban maps derived from nightlights remote sensing data and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework to project future urban expansion by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model. With the models calibrated and validated using historical data, we explored urban growth at the grid level (1-km) over the next two decades under a number of socio-economic scenarios. The derived spatiotemporal information of historical and potential future urbanization will be of great value with practical implications for developing adaptation and risk management measures for urban infrastructure, transportation, energy, and water systems when considered together with other factors such as climate variability and change, and high impact weather events.

  5. Regional Densification of a Global VTEC Model Based on B-Spline Representations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdogan, Eren; Schmidt, Michael; Dettmering, Denise; Goss, Andreas; Seitz, Florian; Börger, Klaus; Brandert, Sylvia; Görres, Barbara; Kersten, Wilhelm F.; Bothmer, Volker; Hinrichs, Johannes; Mrotzek, Niclas

    2017-04-01

    The project OPTIMAP is a joint initiative of the Bundeswehr GeoInformation Centre (BGIC), the German Space Situational Awareness Centre (GSSAC), the German Geodetic Research Institute of the Technical University Munich (DGFI-TUM) and the Institute for Astrophysics at the University of Göttingen (IAG). The main goal of the project is the development of an operational tool for ionospheric mapping and prediction (OPTIMAP). Two key features of the project are the combination of different satellite observation techniques (GNSS, satellite altimetry, radio occultations and DORIS) and the regional densification as a remedy against problems encountered with the inhomogeneous data distribution. Since the data from space-geoscientific mission which can be used for modeling ionospheric parameters, such as the Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) or the electron density, are distributed rather unevenly over the globe at different altitudes, appropriate modeling approaches have to be developed to handle this inhomogeneity. Our approach is based on a two-level strategy. To be more specific, in the first level we compute a global VTEC model with a moderate regional and spectral resolution which will be complemented in the second level by a regional model in a densification area. The latter is a region characterized by a dense data distribution to obtain a high spatial and spectral resolution VTEC product. Additionally, the global representation means a background model for the regional one to avoid edge effects at the boundaries of the densification area. The presented approach based on a global and a regional model part, i.e. the consideration of a regional densification is called the Two-Level VTEC Model (TLVM). The global VTEC model part is based on a series expansion in terms of polynomial B-Splines in latitude direction and trigonometric B-Splines in longitude direction. The additional regional model part is set up by a series expansion in terms of polynomial B-splines for

  6. Dynamical Analysis of SIR Epidemic Models with Distributed Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wencai Zhao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available SIR epidemic models with distributed delay are proposed. Firstly, the dynamical behaviors of the model without vaccination are studied. Using the Jacobian matrix, the stability of the equilibrium points of the system without vaccination is analyzed. The basic reproduction number R is got. In order to study the important role of vaccination to prevent diseases, the model with distributed delay under impulsive vaccination is formulated. And the sufficient conditions of globally asymptotic stability of “infection-free” periodic solution and the permanence of the model are obtained by using Floquet’s theorem, small-amplitude perturbation skills, and comparison theorem. Lastly, numerical simulation is presented to illustrate our main conclusions that vaccination has significant effects on the dynamical behaviors of the model. The results can provide effective tactic basis for the practical infectious disease prevention.

  7. ACE2 Global Digital Elevation Model : User Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, R. G.; Berry, P. A. M.; Benveniste, J.

    2013-12-01

    Altimeter Corrected Elevations 2 (ACE2), first released in October 2009, is the Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) created by fusing the high accuracy of over 100 million altimeter retracked height estimates, derived primarily from the ERS-1 Geodetic Mission, with the high frequency content available within the near-global Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. This novel ACE2 GDEM is freely available at 3”, 9”, 30” and 5' and has been distributed via the web to over 680 subscribers. This paper presents the results of a detailed analysis of geographical distribution of subscribed users, along with fields of study and potential uses. Investigations have also been performed to determine the most popular spatial resolutions and the impact these have on the scope of data downloaded. The analysis has shown that, even though the majority of users have come from Europe and America, a significant number of website hits have been received from South America, Africa and Asia. Registered users also vary widely, from research institutions and major companies down to individual hobbyists looking at data for single projects.

  8. Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 31; Global Surface Ocean Carbon Estimates in a Model Forced by MERRA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Watson W.; Casey, Nancy W.; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

    2013-01-01

    MERRA products were used to force an established ocean biogeochemical model to estimate surface carbon inventories and fluxes in the global oceans. The results were compared to public archives of in situ carbon data and estimates. The model exhibited skill for ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), partial pressure of ocean CO2 (pCO2) and air-sea fluxes (FCO2). The MERRA-forced model produced global mean differences of 0.02% (approximately 0.3 microns) for DIC, -0.3% (about -1.2 (micro) atm; model lower) for pCO2, and -2.3% (-0.003 mol C/sq m/y) for FCO2 compared to in situ estimates. Basin-scale distributions were significantly correlated with observations for all three variables (r=0.97, 0.76, and 0.73, P<0.05, respectively for DIC, pCO2, and FCO2). All major oceanographic basins were represented as sources to the atmosphere or sinks in agreement with in situ estimates. However, there were substantial basin-scale and local departures.

  9. Income Disparities and the Global Distribution of Intensively Farmed Chicken and Pigs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Gilbert

    Full Text Available The rapid transformation of the livestock sector in recent decades brought concerns on its impact on greenhouse gas emissions, disruptions to nitrogen and phosphorous cycles and on land use change, particularly deforestation for production of feed crops. Animal and human health are increasingly interlinked through emerging infectious diseases, zoonoses, and antimicrobial resistance. In many developing countries, the rapidity of change has also had social impacts with increased risk of marginalisation of smallholder farmers. However, both the impacts and benefits of livestock farming often differ between extensive (backyard farming mostly for home-consumption and intensive, commercial production systems (larger herd or flock size, higher investments in inputs, a tendency towards market-orientation. A density of 10,000 chickens per km2 has different environmental, epidemiological and societal implications if these birds are raised by 1,000 individual households or in a single industrial unit. Here, we introduce a novel relationship that links the national proportion of extensively raised animals to the gross domestic product (GDP per capita (in purchasing power parity. This relationship is modelled and used together with the global distribution of rural population to disaggregate existing 10 km resolution global maps of chicken and pig distributions into extensive and intensive systems. Our results highlight countries and regions where extensive and intensive chicken and pig production systems are most important. We discuss the sources of uncertainties, the modelling assumptions and ways in which this approach could be developed to forecast future trajectories of intensification.

  10. Income Disparities and the Global Distribution of Intensively Farmed Chicken and Pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, Marius; Conchedda, Giulia; Van Boeckel, Thomas P; Cinardi, Giuseppina; Linard, Catherine; Nicolas, Gaëlle; Thanapongtharm, Weerapong; D'Aietti, Laura; Wint, William; Newman, Scott H; Robinson, Timothy P

    2015-01-01

    The rapid transformation of the livestock sector in recent decades brought concerns on its impact on greenhouse gas emissions, disruptions to nitrogen and phosphorous cycles and on land use change, particularly deforestation for production of feed crops. Animal and human health are increasingly interlinked through emerging infectious diseases, zoonoses, and antimicrobial resistance. In many developing countries, the rapidity of change has also had social impacts with increased risk of marginalisation of smallholder farmers. However, both the impacts and benefits of livestock farming often differ between extensive (backyard farming mostly for home-consumption) and intensive, commercial production systems (larger herd or flock size, higher investments in inputs, a tendency towards market-orientation). A density of 10,000 chickens per km2 has different environmental, epidemiological and societal implications if these birds are raised by 1,000 individual households or in a single industrial unit. Here, we introduce a novel relationship that links the national proportion of extensively raised animals to the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (in purchasing power parity). This relationship is modelled and used together with the global distribution of rural population to disaggregate existing 10 km resolution global maps of chicken and pig distributions into extensive and intensive systems. Our results highlight countries and regions where extensive and intensive chicken and pig production systems are most important. We discuss the sources of uncertainties, the modelling assumptions and ways in which this approach could be developed to forecast future trajectories of intensification.

  11. Income Disparities and the Global Distribution of Intensively Farmed Chicken and Pigs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, Marius; Conchedda, Giulia; Van Boeckel, Thomas P.; Cinardi, Giuseppina; Linard, Catherine; Nicolas, Gaëlle; Thanapongtharm, Weerapong; D'Aietti, Laura; Wint, William; Newman, Scott H.; Robinson, Timothy P.

    2015-01-01

    The rapid transformation of the livestock sector in recent decades brought concerns on its impact on greenhouse gas emissions, disruptions to nitrogen and phosphorous cycles and on land use change, particularly deforestation for production of feed crops. Animal and human health are increasingly interlinked through emerging infectious diseases, zoonoses, and antimicrobial resistance. In many developing countries, the rapidity of change has also had social impacts with increased risk of marginalisation of smallholder farmers. However, both the impacts and benefits of livestock farming often differ between extensive (backyard farming mostly for home-consumption) and intensive, commercial production systems (larger herd or flock size, higher investments in inputs, a tendency towards market-orientation). A density of 10,000 chickens per km2 has different environmental, epidemiological and societal implications if these birds are raised by 1,000 individual households or in a single industrial unit. Here, we introduce a novel relationship that links the national proportion of extensively raised animals to the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (in purchasing power parity). This relationship is modelled and used together with the global distribution of rural population to disaggregate existing 10 km resolution global maps of chicken and pig distributions into extensive and intensive systems. Our results highlight countries and regions where extensive and intensive chicken and pig production systems are most important. We discuss the sources of uncertainties, the modelling assumptions and ways in which this approach could be developed to forecast future trajectories of intensification. PMID:26230336

  12. Nucleon parton distributions in a light-front quark model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutsche, Thomas; Lyubovitskij, Valery E.; Schmidt, Ivan

    2017-01-01

    Continuing our analysis of parton distributions in the nucleon, we extend our light-front quark model in order to obtain both the helicity-independent and the helicity-dependent parton distributions, analytically matching the results of global fits at the initial scale μ∝ 1 GeV; they also contain the correct Dokshitzer-Gribov-Lipatov-Altarelli-Parisi evolution. We also calculate the transverse parton, Wigner and Husimi distributions from a unified point of view, using our light-front wave functions and expressing them in terms of the parton distributions q_v(x) and δq_v(x). Our results are very relevant for the current and future program of the COMPASS experiment at SPS (CERN). (orig.)

  13. Nucleon parton distributions in a light-front quark model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gutsche, Thomas [Universitaet Tuebingen, Institut fuer Theoretische Physik, Kepler Center for Astro and Particle Physics, Tuebingen (Germany); Lyubovitskij, Valery E. [Universitaet Tuebingen, Institut fuer Theoretische Physik, Kepler Center for Astro and Particle Physics, Tuebingen (Germany); Tomsk State University, Department of Physics, Tomsk (Russian Federation); Tomsk Polytechnic University, Laboratory of Particle Physics, Mathematical Physics Department, Tomsk (Russian Federation); Universidad Tecnica Federico Santa Maria, Departamento de Fisica y Centro Cientifico Tecnologico de Valparaiso (CCTVal), Valparaiso (Chile); Schmidt, Ivan [Universidad Tecnica Federico Santa Maria, Departamento de Fisica y Centro Cientifico Tecnologico de Valparaiso (CCTVal), Valparaiso (Chile)

    2017-02-15

    Continuing our analysis of parton distributions in the nucleon, we extend our light-front quark model in order to obtain both the helicity-independent and the helicity-dependent parton distributions, analytically matching the results of global fits at the initial scale μ∝ 1 GeV; they also contain the correct Dokshitzer-Gribov-Lipatov-Altarelli-Parisi evolution. We also calculate the transverse parton, Wigner and Husimi distributions from a unified point of view, using our light-front wave functions and expressing them in terms of the parton distributions q{sub v}(x) and δq{sub v}(x). Our results are very relevant for the current and future program of the COMPASS experiment at SPS (CERN). (orig.)

  14. The GEWEX LandFlux project: evaluation of model evaporation using tower-based and globally-gridded forcing data

    KAUST Repository

    McCabe, Matthew

    2015-08-24

    Determining the spatial distribution and temporal development of evaporation at regional and global scales is required to improve our understanding of the coupled water and energy cycles and to better monitor any changes in observed trends and variability of linked hydrological processes. With recent international efforts guiding the development of long-term and globally distributed flux estimates, continued product assessments are required to inform upon the selection of suitable model structures and also to establish the appropriateness of these multi-model simulations for global application. In support of the objectives of the GEWEX LandFlux project, four commonly used evaporation models are evaluated against data from tower-based eddy-covariance observations, distributed across a range of biomes and climate zones. The selected schemes include the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) approach, the Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model, the Penman-Monteith based Mu model (PM-Mu) and the Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology (GLEAM). Here we seek to examine the fidelity of global evaporation simulations by examining the multi-model response to varying sources of forcing data. To do this, we perform parallel and collocated model simulations using tower-based data together with a global-scale grid-based forcing product. Through quantifying the multi-model response to high-quality tower data, a better understanding of the subsequent model response to coarse-scale globally gridded data that underlies the LandFlux product can be obtained, while also providing a relative evaluation and assessment of model performance.

    Using surface flux observations from forty-five globally distributed eddy-covariance stations as independent metrics of performance, the tower-based analysis indicated that PT-JPL provided the highest overally statistical performance (0.72; 61 W m−2; 0.65), followed closely by GLEAM (0.68; 64 W m

  15. Global mammal distributions, biodiversity hotspots, and conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R

    2006-12-19

    Hotspots, which have played a central role in the selection of sites for reserves, require careful rethinking. We carried out a global examination of distributions of all nonmarine mammals to determine patterns of species richness, endemism, and endangerment, and to evaluate the degree of congruence among hotspots of these three measures of diversity in mammals. We then compare congruence of hotspots in two animal groups (mammals and birds) to assess the generality of these patterns. We defined hotspots as the richest 2.5% of cells in a global equal-area grid comparable to 1 degrees latitude x 1 degrees longitude. Hotspots of species richness, "endemism," and extinction threat were noncongruent. Only 1% of cells and 16% of species were common to the three types of mammalian hotspots. Congruence increased with increases in both the geographic scope of the analysis and the percentage of cells defined as being hotspots. The within-mammal hotspot noncongruence was similar to the pattern recently found for birds. Thus, assigning global conservation priorities based on hotspots is at best a limited strategy.

  16. Analysis and Comparison of Typical Models within Distribution Network Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Hans Jacob; Larsen, Allan; Madsen, Oli B.G.

    Efficient and cost effective transportation and logistics plays a vital role in the supply chains of the modern world’s manufacturers. Global distribution of goods is a very complicated matter as it involves many different distinct planning problems. The focus of this presentation is to demonstrate...... a number of important issues which have been identified when addressing the Distribution Network Design problem from a modelling angle. More specifically, we present an analysis of the research which has been performed in utilizing operational research in developing and optimising distribution systems....

  17. Global exponential stability of mixed discrete and distributively delayed cellular neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yao Hong-Xing; Zhou Jia-Yan

    2011-01-01

    This paper concernes analysis for the global exponential stability of a class of recurrent neural networks with mixed discrete and distributed delays. It first proves the existence and uniqueness of the balance point, then by employing the Lyapunov—Krasovskii functional and Young inequality, it gives the sufficient condition of global exponential stability of cellular neural network with mixed discrete and distributed delays, in addition, the example is provided to illustrate the applicability of the result. (general)

  18. The impact of organochlorines cycling in the cryosphere on global distributions and fate – 2. Land ice and temporary snow cover

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hofmann, Lorenz; Stemmler, Irene; Lammel, Gerhard

    2012-01-01

    Global fate and transport of γ-HCH and DDT was studied using a global multicompartment chemistry-transport model, MPI-MCTM, with and without inclusion of land ice (in Antarctica and Greenland) or snow cover (dynamic). MPI-MCTM is based on coupled ocean and atmosphere general circulation models. After a decade of simulation 4.2% γ-HCH and 2.3% DDT are stored in land ice and snow. Neglection of land ice and snow in modelling would underestimate the total environmental residence time, τ ov , of γ-HCH and overestimate τ ov for DDT, both on the order of 1% and depending on actual compartmental distribution. Volatilisation of DDT from boreal, seasonally snow covered land is enhanced throughout the year, while volatilisation of γ-HCH is only enhanced during the snow-free season. Including land ice and snow cover in modelling matters in particular for the Arctic, where higher burdens are predicted to be stored. - Highlights: ► Land ice and snow hosts 2–4% of the global environmental burden of γ-HCH and DDT. ► Inclusion of land ice and snow cover matters for global environmental residence time. ► Including of land ice and snow cover matters in particular for the Arctic. - The inclusion of cycling in temporary snow cover and land ice in the model is found relevant for predicted POPs multicompartmental distribution and fate in the Arctic and on the global scale.

  19. BETR Global - A geographically explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Macleod, M.; Waldow, H. von; Tay, P.; Armitage, J. M.; Wohrnschimmel, H.; Riley, W.; McKone, T. E.; Hungerbuhler, K.

    2011-04-01

    We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15{sup o} x 15{sup o} grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

  20. Comparison of Explicitly Simulated and Downscaled Tropical Cyclone Activity in a High-Resolution Global Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hirofumi Tomita

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The response of tropical cyclone activity to climate change is a matter of great inherent interest and practical importance. Most current global climate models are not, however, capable of adequately resolving tropical cyclones; this has led to the development of downscaling techniques designed to infer tropical cyclone activity from the large-scale fields produced by climate models. Here we compare the statistics of tropical cyclones simulated explicitly in a very high resolution (~14 km grid mesh global climate model to the results of one such downscaling technique driven by the same global model. This is done for a simulation of the current climate and also for a simulation of a climate warmed by the addition of carbon dioxide. The explicitly simulated and downscaled storms are similarly distributed in space, but the intensity distribution of the downscaled events has a somewhat longer high-intensity tail, owing to the higher resolution of the downscaling model. Both explicitly simulated and downscaled events show large increases in the frequency of events at the high-intensity ends of their respective intensity distributions, but the downscaled storms also show increases in low-intensity events, whereas the explicitly simulated weaker events decline in number. On the regional scale, there are large differences in the responses of the explicitly simulated and downscaled events to global warming. In particular, the power dissipation of downscaled events shows a 175% increase in the Atlantic, while the power dissipation of explicitly simulated events declines there.

  1. Global exponential stability of bidirectional associative memory neural networks with distributed delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Qiankun; Cao, Jinde

    2007-05-01

    A bidirectional associative memory neural network model with distributed delays is considered. By constructing a new Lyapunov functional, employing the homeomorphism theory, M-matrix theory and the inequality (a[greater-or-equal, slanted]0,bk[greater-or-equal, slanted]0,qk>0 with , and r>1), a sufficient condition is obtained to ensure the existence, uniqueness and global exponential stability of the equilibrium point for the model. Moreover, the exponential converging velocity index is estimated, which depends on the delay kernel functions and the system parameters. The results generalize and improve the earlier publications, and remove the usual assumption that the activation functions are bounded . Two numerical examples are given to show the effectiveness of the obtained results.

  2. Spatial distribution of coefficients for determination of global radiation in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolić Jugoslav L.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is a creation of the spatial distribution of the corresponding coefficients for the indirect determination of global radiation using all direct measurements data of this shortwave radiation balance component in Serbia in the standard climate period (1961-1990. Based on the global radiation direct measurements data recorded in the past and routine measurements/observations of cloudiness and sunshine duration, the spatial distribution coefficients maps required for calculation of global radiation were produced on the basis of sunshine/cloudiness in an arbitrary point on the territory of Serbia. Besides, a specific verification of the proposed empirical formula was performed. This paper contributes to a wide range of practical applications as direct measurements of global radiation are relatively rare, and are not carried out in Serbia today. Significant application is possible in the domain of renewable energy sources. The development of method for determination of the global radiation has an importance from the aspect of the environmental protection; however it also has an economic importance through applications in numerous commercial projects, as it does not require special measurements or additional financial investments.

  3. Spatial and temporal patterns of global onshore wind speed distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Yuyu; Smith, Steven J

    2013-01-01

    Wind power, a renewable energy source, can play an important role in electrical energy generation. Information regarding wind energy potential is important both for energy related modeling and for decision-making in the policy community. While wind speed datasets with high spatial and temporal resolution are often ultimately used for detailed planning, simpler assumptions are often used in analysis work. An accurate representation of the wind speed frequency distribution is needed in order to properly characterize wind energy potential. Using a power density method, this study estimated global variation in wind parameters as fitted to a Weibull density function using NCEP/climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) data over land areas. The Weibull distribution performs well in fitting the time series wind speed data at most locations according to R 2 , root mean square error, and power density error. The wind speed frequency distribution, as represented by the Weibull k parameter, exhibits a large amount of spatial variation, a regionally varying amount of seasonal variation, and relatively low decadal variation. We also analyzed the potential error in wind power estimation when a commonly assumed Rayleigh distribution (Weibull k = 2) is used. We find that the assumption of the same Weibull parameter across large regions can result in non-negligible errors. While large-scale wind speed data are often presented in the form of mean wind speeds, these results highlight the need to also provide information on the wind speed frequency distribution. (letter)

  4. A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.

    2012-01-01

    Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

  5. [Predicting the impact of global warming on the geographical distribution pattern of Quercus variabilis in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yao; Zhang, Xing-wang; Fang, Yan-ming

    2014-12-01

    The geographical distribution of Quercus variabilis in China with its climate characteristics was analyzed based on DIVA-GIS which was also used to estimate the response of future potential distribution to global warming by Bioclim and Domain models. Analysis results showed the geographical distribution of Q. variabilis could be divided into 7 subregions: Henduan Mountains, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, North China, East China, Liaodong-Shandong Peninsula, Taiwan Island, and Qinling-Daba Mountains. These subregions are across 7 temperature zones, 2 moisture regions and 17 climatic subregions, including 8 climate types. The modern abundance center of Q. variabilis is Qinling, Daba and Funiu mountains. The condition of mean annual temperature 7.5-19.8 degrees C annual precipitation 471-1511 mm, is suitable for Q. variabilis. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC values), of Domain and Boiclim models were 0.910, 0.779; the former predicted that the potential regions of high suitability for Q. variabilis are Qinling, Daba, Funiu, Tongbai, and Dabie mountains, eastern and western Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, hills of southern Jiangsu and Anhui, part of the mountains in North China. Global warming might lead to the shrinking in suitable region and retreating from the south for Q. variabilis.

  6. GlobWat – a global water balance model to assess water use in irrigated agriculture (discussion paper)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogeveen, J.; Faures, J.M.; Peiser, L.; Burke, J.; Van de Giesen, N.C.

    2015-01-01

    GlobWat is a freely distributed, global soil water balance model that is used by FAO to assess water use in irrigated agriculture; the main factor behind scarcity of freshwater in an increasing number of regions. The model is based on spatially distributed high resolution datasets that are

  7. Sharp conditions for global stability of Lotka-Volterra systems with distributed delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faria, Teresa

    We give a criterion for the global attractivity of a positive equilibrium of n-dimensional non-autonomous Lotka-Volterra systems with distributed delays. For a class of autonomous Lotka-Volterra systems, we show that such a criterion is sharp, in the sense that it provides necessary and sufficient conditions for the global asymptotic stability independently of the choice of the delay functions. The global attractivity of positive equilibria is established by imposing a diagonal dominance of the instantaneous negative feedback terms, and relies on auxiliary results showing the boundedness of all positive solutions. The paper improves and generalizes known results in the literature, namely by considering systems with distributed delays rather than discrete delays.

  8. FORMATION OF DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS WITH THE INVOLVEMENT OF THE GLOBAL RETAIL CHAINS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Kudyrko

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the article is to analyze the features of formation and functioning of multi-marketing distribution systems involving global retail chains and identify the causes of conflicts between participants in the global supply chain and suggest possible ways to displace them. The article represents the author’s definition of the term “global retail chain”. The role and responsibilities of international retailers in the formation of marketing structures on international markets are discovered. The algorithm of the relationship between the participants in the traditional vertical marketing system with the definition of international components is determined. The conflict causes between the participants within the distribution channel are identified.

  9. Modelling the distribution of chickens, ducks, and geese in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prosser, Diann J.; Wu, Junxi; Ellis, Erie C.; Gale, Fred; Van Boeckel, Thomas P.; Wint, William; Robinson, Tim; Xiao, Xiangming; Gilbert, Marius

    2011-01-01

    Global concerns over the emergence of zoonotic pandemics emphasize the need for high-resolution population distribution mapping and spatial modelling. Ongoing efforts to model disease risk in China have been hindered by a lack of available species level distribution maps for poultry. The goal of this study was to develop 1 km resolution population density models for China's chickens, ducks, and geese. We used an information theoretic approach to predict poultry densities based on statistical relationships between poultry census data and high-resolution agro-ecological predictor variables. Model predictions were validated by comparing goodness of fit measures (root mean square error and correlation coefficient) for observed and predicted values for 1/4 of the sample data which were not used for model training. Final output included mean and coefficient of variation maps for each species. We tested the quality of models produced using three predictor datasets and 4 regional stratification methods. For predictor variables, a combination of traditional predictors for livestock mapping and land use predictors produced the best goodness of fit scores. Comparison of regional stratifications indicated that for chickens and ducks, a stratification based on livestock production systems produced the best results; for geese, an agro-ecological stratification produced best results. However, for all species, each method of regional stratification produced significantly better goodness of fit scores than the global model. Here we provide descriptive methods, analytical comparisons, and model output for China's first high resolution, species level poultry distribution maps. Output will be made available to the scientific and public community for use in a wide range of applications from epidemiological studies to livestock policy and management initiatives.

  10. The global distribution of ammonia emissions from seabird colonies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riddick, S. N.; Dragosits, U.; Blackall, T. D.; Daunt, F.; Wanless, S.; Sutton, M. A.

    2012-08-01

    Seabird colonies represent a significant source of atmospheric ammonia (NH3) in remote maritime systems, producing a source of nitrogen that may encourage plant growth, alter terrestrial plant community composition and affect the surrounding marine ecosystem. To investigate seabird NH3 emissions on a global scale, we developed a contemporary seabird database including a total seabird population of 261 million breeding pairs. We used this in conjunction with a bioenergetics model to estimate the mass of nitrogen excreted by all seabirds at each breeding colony. The results combined with the findings of mid-latitude field studies of volatilization rates estimate the global distribution of NH3 emissions from seabird colonies on an annual basis. The largest uncertainty in our emission estimate concerns the potential temperature dependence of NH3 emission. To investigate this we calculated and compared temperature independent emission estimates with a maximum feasible temperature dependent emission, based on the thermodynamic dissociation and solubility equilibria. Using the temperature independent approach, we estimate global NH3 emissions from seabird colonies at 404 Gg NH3 per year. By comparison, since most seabirds are located in relatively cold circumpolar locations, the thermodynamically dependent estimate is 136 Gg NH3 per year. Actual global emissions are expected to be within these bounds, as other factors, such as non-linear interactions with water availability and surface infiltration, moderate the theoretical temperature response. Combining sources of error from temperature (±49%), seabird population estimates (±36%), variation in diet composition (±23%) and non-breeder attendance (±13%), gives a mid estimate with an overall uncertainty range of NH3 emission from seabird colonies of 270 [97-442] Gg NH3 per year. These emissions are environmentally relevant as they primarily occur as "hot-spots" in otherwise pristine environments with low anthropogenic

  11. Optimization model for the design of distributed wastewater treatment networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrić Nidret

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we address the synthesis problem of distributed wastewater networks using mathematical programming approach based on the superstructure optimization. We present a generalized superstructure and optimization model for the design of the distributed wastewater treatment networks. The superstructure includes splitters, treatment units, mixers, with all feasible interconnections including water recirculation. Based on the superstructure the optimization model is presented. The optimization model is given as a nonlinear programming (NLP problem where the objective function can be defined to minimize the total amount of wastewater treated in treatment operations or to minimize the total treatment costs. The NLP model is extended to a mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP problem where binary variables are used for the selection of the wastewater treatment technologies. The bounds for all flowrates and concentrations in the wastewater network are specified as general equations. The proposed models are solved using the global optimization solvers (BARON and LINDOGlobal. The application of the proposed models is illustrated on the two wastewater network problems of different complexity. First one is formulated as the NLP and the second one as the MINLP. For the second one the parametric and structural optimization is performed at the same time where optimal flowrates, concentrations as well as optimal technologies for the wastewater treatment are selected. Using the proposed model both problems are solved to global optimality.

  12. Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xia; Gao, Qiong; Peng, Changhui; Cui, Xuefeng; Liu, Yinghui; Jiang, Li

    2014-03-01

    With rapid economic development and urbanization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model (GLOBFOOD) and regional spatial allocation model (CLUE). The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socioeconomic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

  13. Divergence and gene flow in the globally distributed blue-winged ducks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Joel; Wilson, Robert E.; McCracken, Kevin G.; Cumming, Graeme; Joseph, Leo; Guay, Patrick-Jean; Peters, Jeffrey

    2017-01-01

    The ability to disperse over long distances can result in a high propensity for colonizing new geographic regions, including uninhabited continents, and lead to lineage diversification via allopatric speciation. However, high vagility can also result in gene flow between otherwise allopatric populations, and in some cases, parapatric or divergence-with-gene-flow models might be more applicable to widely distributed lineages. Here, we use five nuclear introns and the mitochondrial control region along with Bayesian models of isolation with migration to examine divergence, gene flow, and phylogenetic relationships within a cosmopolitan lineage comprising six species, the blue-winged ducks (genus Anas), which inhabit all continents except Antarctica. We found two primary sub-lineages, the globally-distributed shoveler group and the New World blue-winged/cinnamon teal group. The blue-winged/cinnamon sub-lineage is composed of sister taxa from North America and South America, and taxa with parapatric distributions are characterized by low to moderate levels of gene flow. In contrast, our data support strict allopatry for most comparisons within the shovelers. However, we found evidence of gene flow from the migratory, Holarctic northern shoveler (A. clypeata) and the more sedentary, African Cape shoveler (A. smithii) into the Australasian shoveler (A. rhynchotis), although we could not reject strict allopatry. Given the diverse mechanisms of speciation within this complex, the shovelers and blue-winged/cinnamon teals can serve as an effective model system for examining how the genome diverges under different evolutionary processes and how genetic variation is partitioned among highly dispersive taxa.

  14. Predictive Distribution of the Dirichlet Mixture Model by the Local Variational Inference Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Zhanyu; Leijon, Arne; Tan, Zheng-Hua

    2014-01-01

    the predictive likelihood of the new upcoming data, especially when the amount of training data is small. The Bayesian estimation of a Dirichlet mixture model (DMM) is, in general, not analytically tractable. In our previous work, we have proposed a global variational inference-based method for approximately...... calculating the posterior distributions of the parameters in the DMM analytically. In this paper, we extend our previous study for the DMM and propose an algorithm to calculate the predictive distribution of the DMM with the local variational inference (LVI) method. The true predictive distribution of the DMM...... is analytically intractable. By considering the concave property of the multivariate inverse beta function, we introduce an upper-bound to the true predictive distribution. As the global minimum of this upper-bound exists, the problem is reduced to seek an approximation to the true predictive distribution...

  15. A physically based model of global freshwater surface temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Eikelboom, Tessa; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2012-09-01

    Temperature determines a range of physical properties of water and exerts a strong control on surface water biogeochemistry. Thus, in freshwater ecosystems the thermal regime directly affects the geographical distribution of aquatic species through their growth and metabolism and indirectly through their tolerance to parasites and diseases. Models used to predict surface water temperature range between physically based deterministic models and statistical approaches. Here we present the initial results of a physically based deterministic model of global freshwater surface temperature. The model adds a surface water energy balance to river discharge modeled by the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. In addition to advection of energy from direct precipitation, runoff, and lateral exchange along the drainage network, energy is exchanged between the water body and the atmosphere by shortwave and longwave radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes. Also included are ice formation and its effect on heat storage and river hydraulics. We use the coupled surface water and energy balance model to simulate global freshwater surface temperature at daily time steps with a spatial resolution of 0.5° on a regular grid for the period 1976-2000. We opt to parameterize the model with globally available data and apply it without calibration in order to preserve its physical basis with the outlook of evaluating the effects of atmospheric warming on freshwater surface temperature. We validate our simulation results with daily temperature data from rivers and lakes (U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), limited to the USA) and compare mean monthly temperatures with those recorded in the Global Environment Monitoring System (GEMS) data set. Results show that the model is able to capture the mean monthly surface temperature for the majority of the GEMS stations, while the interannual variability as derived from the USGS and NOAA data was captured reasonably well. Results are poorest for

  16. A Robust Response of Precipitation to Global Warming from CMIP5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, K. -M.; Wu, H. -T.; Kim, K. -M.

    2012-01-01

    How precipitation responds to global warming is a major concern to society and a challenge to climate change research. Based on analyses of rainfall probability distribution functions of 14 state-of-the-art climate models, we find a robust, canonical global rainfall response to a triple CO2 warming scenario, featuring 100 250% more heavy rain, 5-10% less moderate rain, and 10-15% more very light or no-rain events. Regionally, a majority of the models project a consistent response with more heavy rain events over climatologically wet regions of the deep tropics, and more dry events over subtropical and tropical land areas. Results suggest that increased CO2 emissions induce basic structural changes in global rain systems, increasing risks of severe floods and droughts in preferred geographic locations worldwide.

  17. Selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forest trees based on structural modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Ay, J. S.; Guillemot, J.; Doyen, L.; Leadley, P.

    2014-12-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global changes on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of applications on forest trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8km). We also compared the outputs of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM (i.e. Biomod ensemble modelling) in terms of bioclimatic response curves and potential distributions under current climate and climate change scenarios. The shapes of the bioclimatic response curves and the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between SSDM and classical SDMs, with contrasted patterns according to species and spatial resolutions. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents

  18. A Global Model of Meteoric Sodium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Daniel R.; Janches, Diego; Feng, Wuhu; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-01-01

    A global model of sodium in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere has been developed within the framework of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The standard fully interactive WACCM chemistry module has been augmented with a chemistry scheme that includes nine neutral and ionized sodium species. Meteoric ablation provides the source of sodium in the model and is represented as a combination of a meteoroid input function (MIF) and a parameterized ablation model. The MIF provides the seasonally and latitudinally varying meteoric flux which is modeled taking into consideration the astronomical origins of sporadic meteors and considers variations in particle entry angle, velocity, mass, and the differential ablation of the chemical constituents. WACCM simulations show large variations in the sodium constituents over time scales from days to months. Seasonality of sodium constituents is strongly affected by variations in the MIF and transport via the mean meridional wind. In particular, the summer to winter hemisphere flow leads to the highest sodium species concentrations and loss rates occurring over the winter pole. In the Northern Hemisphere, this winter maximum can be dramatically affected by stratospheric sudden warmings. Simulations of the January 2009 major warming event show that it caused a short-term decrease in the sodium column over the polar cap that was followed by a factor of 3 increase in the following weeks. Overall, the modeled distribution of atomic sodium in WACCM agrees well with both ground-based and satellite observations. Given the strong sensitivity of the sodium layer to dynamical motions, reproducing its variability provides a stringent test of global models and should help to constrain key atmospheric variables in this poorly sampled region of the atmosphere.

  19. Management of Globally Distributed Software Development Projects in Multiple-Vendor Constellations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schott, Katharina; Beck, Roman; Gregory, Robert Wayne

    Global information systems development outsourcing is an apparent trend that is expected to continue in the foreseeable future. Thereby, IS-related services are not only increasingly provided from different geographical sites simultaneously but beyond that from multiple service providers based in different countries. The purpose of this paper is to understand how the involvement of multiple service providers affects the management of the globally distributed information systems development projects. As research on this topic is scarce, we applied an exploratory in-depth single-case study design as research approach. The case we analyzed comprises a global software development outsourcing project initiated by a German bank together with several globally distributed vendors. For data collection and data analysis we have adopted techniques suggested by the grounded theory method. Whereas the extant literature points out the increased management overhead associated with multi-sourcing, the analysis of our case suggests that the required effort for managing global outsourcing projects with multiple vendors depends among other things on the maturation level of the cooperation within the vendor portfolio. Furthermore, our data indicate that this interplay maturity is positively impacted through knowledge about the client that has been derived based on already existing client-vendor relationships. The paper concludes by offering theoretical and practical implications.

  20. Global distribution and evolvement of urbanization and PM2.5 (1998-2015)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Dongyang; Ye, Chao; Wang, Xiaomin; Lu, Debin; Xu, Jianhua; Yang, Haiqing

    2018-06-01

    PM2.5 concentrations increased and have been one of the major social issues along with rapid urbanization in many regions of the world in recent decades. The development of urbanization differed among regions, PM2.5 pollution also presented discrepant distribution across the world. Thus, this paper aimed to grasp the profile of global distribution of urbanization and PM2.5 and their evolutionary relationships. Based on global data for the proportion of the urban population and PM2.5 concentrations in 1998-2015, this paper investigated the spatial distribution, temporal variation, and evolutionary relationships of global urbanization and PM2.5. The results showed PM2.5 presented an increasing trend along with urbanization during the study period, but there was a variety of evolutionary relationships in different countries and regions. Most countries in East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, and some African countries developed with the rapid increase in both urbanization and PM2.5. Under the impact of other socioeconomic factors, such as industry and economic growth, the development of urbanization increased PM2.5 concentrations in most Asian countries and some African countries, but decreased PM2.5 concentrations in most European and American countries. The findings of this study revealed the spatial distributions of global urbanization and PM2.5 pollution and provided an interpretation on the evolution of urbanization-PM2.5 relationships, which can contribute to urbanization policies making aimed at successful PM2.5 pollution control and abatement.

  1. A seawater desalination scheme for global hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, Naota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kakinuma, Kaoru; Kanae, Shinjiro

    2016-10-01

    Seawater desalination is a practical technology for providing fresh water to coastal arid regions. Indeed, the use of desalination is rapidly increasing due to growing water demand in these areas and decreases in production costs due to technological advances. In this study, we developed a model to estimate the areas where seawater desalination is likely to be used as a major water source and the likely volume of production. The model was designed to be incorporated into global hydrological models (GHMs) that explicitly include human water usage. The model requires spatially detailed information on climate, income levels, and industrial and municipal water use, which represent standard input/output data in GHMs. The model was applied to a specific historical year (2005) and showed fairly good reproduction of the present geographical distribution and national production of desalinated water in the world. The model was applied globally to two periods in the future (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) under three distinct socioeconomic conditions, i.e., SSP (shared socioeconomic pathway) 1, SSP2, and SSP3. The results indicate that the usage of seawater desalination will have expanded considerably in geographical extent, and that production will have increased by 1.4-2.1-fold in 2011-2040 compared to the present (from 2.8 × 109 m3 yr-1 in 2005 to 4.0-6.0 × 109 m3 yr-1), and 6.7-17.3-fold in 2041-2070 (from 18.7 to 48.6 × 109 m3 yr-1). The estimated global costs for production for each period are USD 1.1-10.6 × 109 (0.002-0.019 % of the total global GDP), USD 1.6-22.8 × 109 (0.001-0.020 %), and USD 7.5-183.9 × 109 (0.002-0.100 %), respectively. The large spreads in these projections are primarily attributable to variations within the socioeconomic scenarios.

  2. Continuous gene flow contributes to low global species abundance and distribution of a marine model diatom

    KAUST Repository

    Rastogi, Achal

    2017-08-15

    Unlike terrestrial ecosystems where geographical isolation often leads to a restricted gene flow between species, genetic admixing in aquatic micro-eukaryotes is likely to be frequent. Diatoms inhabit marine ecosystems since the Mesozoic period and presently constitute one of the major primary producers in the world ocean. They are a highly diversified group of eukaryotic phytoplankton with estimates of up to 200,000 species. Since decades, Phaeodactylum tricornutum is used as a model diatom species to characterize the functional pathways, physiology and evolution of diatoms in general. In the current study, using whole genome sequencing of ten P. tricornutum strains, sampled at broad geospatial and temporal scales, we show a continuous dispersal and genetic admixing between geographically isolated strains. We also describe a very high level of heterozygosity and propose it to be a consequence of frequent ancestral admixture. Our finding that P. tricornutum sequences are plausibly detectable at low but broadly distributed levels in the world ocean further suggests that high admixing between geographically isolated strains may create a significant bottleneck, thus influencing their global abundance and distribution in nature. Finally, in an attempt to understand the functional implications of genetic diversity between different P. tricornutum ecotypes, we show the effects of domestication in inducing changes in the selection pressure on many genes and metabolic pathways. We propose these findings to have significant implications for understanding the genetic structure of diatom populations in nature and provide a framework to assess the genomic underpinnings of their ecological success.

  3. Continuous gene flow contributes to low global species abundance and distribution of a marine model diatom

    KAUST Repository

    Rastogi, Achal; Deton-Cabanillas, Anne-Flore; Rocha Jimenez Vieira, Fabio; Veluchamy, Alaguraj; Cantrel, Catherine; Wang, Gaohong; Vanormelingen, Pieter; Bowler, Chris; Piganeau, Gwenael; Tirichine, Leila; Hu, Hanhua

    2017-01-01

    Unlike terrestrial ecosystems where geographical isolation often leads to a restricted gene flow between species, genetic admixing in aquatic micro-eukaryotes is likely to be frequent. Diatoms inhabit marine ecosystems since the Mesozoic period and presently constitute one of the major primary producers in the world ocean. They are a highly diversified group of eukaryotic phytoplankton with estimates of up to 200,000 species. Since decades, Phaeodactylum tricornutum is used as a model diatom species to characterize the functional pathways, physiology and evolution of diatoms in general. In the current study, using whole genome sequencing of ten P. tricornutum strains, sampled at broad geospatial and temporal scales, we show a continuous dispersal and genetic admixing between geographically isolated strains. We also describe a very high level of heterozygosity and propose it to be a consequence of frequent ancestral admixture. Our finding that P. tricornutum sequences are plausibly detectable at low but broadly distributed levels in the world ocean further suggests that high admixing between geographically isolated strains may create a significant bottleneck, thus influencing their global abundance and distribution in nature. Finally, in an attempt to understand the functional implications of genetic diversity between different P. tricornutum ecotypes, we show the effects of domestication in inducing changes in the selection pressure on many genes and metabolic pathways. We propose these findings to have significant implications for understanding the genetic structure of diatom populations in nature and provide a framework to assess the genomic underpinnings of their ecological success.

  4. GLOBATO: An enhanced global relief model at 30 arc-seconds resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Leary, V.; Amante, C.

    2017-12-01

    The National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), an office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), first developed a digital bathymetric and elevation model, ETOPO5, from publicly available data in 1993. For nearly 25 years, NCEI's ETOPO family of global relief models have supported research at a planetary scale, including tsunami forecasting, ocean circulation modeling, visualization of the seafloor, understanding geological phenomena, and aiding the development of other global and regional elevation models. GLOBATO (GLObal BAThymetry and TOpography) is now the most detailed version released by NCEI with a horizontal resolution of 30 arc-seconds and succeeds ETOPO1 with the inclusion of several new or updated data-sets for the seafloor as well as land areas. GLOBATO is a compilation of data derived from models of satellite measurements, ship depth soundings, and multibeam surveys, as well as regional models developed for Greenland and Antarctica. These data were converted from different formats, resolutions, spatial distributions, and projections into a single global model using GDAL v2.2 and MB-System v5.5. As with previous NCEI models, GLOBATO is available in two formats, "bedrock elevation" (measured as the base of major ice sheets) and "ice surface elevation" (measured as the surface of major ice sheets) which provides comprehensive topographic and bathymetric coverage between +- 90 degrees latitude and +- 180 degrees longitude. Adhering to best practices, GLOBATO, all related digital products, and any supporting documentation are available online through the NCEI data portal. These new, high resolution models will better support the variety of research ETOPO1 has made possible.

  5. Analysing the Outbound logistics process enhancements in Nokia-Siemens Networks Global Distribution Center

    OpenAIRE

    Marjeta, Katri

    2011-01-01

    Marjeta, Katri. 2011. Analysing the outbound logistics process enhancements in Nokia-Siemens Networks Global Distribution Center. Master´s thesis. Kemi-Tornio University of Applied Sciences. Business and Culture. Pages 57. Due to confidentiality issues, this work has been modified from its original form. The aim of this Master Thesis work is to describe and analyze the outbound logistics process enhancement projects executed in Nokia-Siemens Networks Global Distribution Center after the N...

  6. Orographic precipitation at global and regional scales: Observational uncertainty and evaluation of 25-km global model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiemann, Reinhard; Roberts, Charles J.; Bush, Stephanie; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Strachan, Jane; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Roberts, Malcolm J.

    2015-04-01

    Precipitation over land exhibits a high degree of variability due to the complex interaction of the precipitation generating atmospheric processes with coastlines, the heterogeneous land surface, and orography. Global general circulation models (GCMs) have traditionally had very limited ability to capture this variability on the mesoscale (here ~50-500 km) due to their low resolution. This has changed with recent investments in resolution and ensembles of multidecadal climate simulations of atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) with ~25 km grid spacing are becoming increasingly available. Here, we evaluate the mesoscale precipitation distribution in one such set of simulations obtained in the UPSCALE (UK on PrACE - weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) modelling campaign with the HadGEM-GA3 AGCM. Increased model resolution also poses new challenges to the observational datasets used to evaluate models. Global gridded data products such as those provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) are invaluable for assessing large-scale features of the precipitation distribution but may not sufficiently resolve mesoscale structures. In the absence of independent estimates, the intercomparison of different observational datasets may be the only way to get some insight into the uncertainties associated with these observations. Here, we focus on mid-latitude continental regions where observations based on higher-density gauge networks are available in addition to the global data sets: Europe/the Alps, South and East Asia, and the continental US. The ability of GCMs to represent mesoscale variability is of interest in its own right, as climate information on this scale is required by impact studies. An additional motivation for the research proposed here arises from continuing efforts to quantify the components of the global radiation budget and water cycle. Recent estimates based on radiation measurements suggest that the global mean

  7. A global central banker competency model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W. Brits

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: No comprehensive, integrated competency model exists for central bankers. Due to the importance of central banks in the context of the ongoing global financial crisis, it was deemed necessary to design and validate such a model. Research purpose: To craft and validate a comprehensive, integrated global central banker competency model (GCBCM and to assess whether central banks using the GCBCM for training have a higher global influence. Motivation for the study: Limited consensus exists globally about what constitutes a ‘competent’ central banker. A quantitatively validated GCBCM would make a significant contribution to enhancing central banker effectiveness, and also provide a solid foundation for effective people management. Research approach, design and method: A blended quantitative and qualitative research approach was taken. Two sets of hypotheses were tested regarding the relationships between the GCBCM and the training offered, using the model on the one hand, and a central bank’s global influence on the other. Main findings: The GCBCM was generally accepted across all participating central banks globally, although some differences were found between central banks with higher and lower global influence. The actual training offered by central banks in terms of the model, however, is generally limited to technical-functional skills. The GCBCM is therefore at present predominantly aspirational. Significant differences were found regarding the training offered. Practical/managerial implications: By adopting the GCBCM, central banks would be able to develop organisation-specific competency models in order to enhance their organisational capabilities and play their increasingly important global role more effectively. Contribution: A generic conceptual framework for the crafting of a competency model with evaluation criteria was developed. A GCBCM was quantitatively validated.

  8. Evaluation of aerosol distributions in the GISS-TOMAS global aerosol microphysics model with remote sensing observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. H. Lee

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD and Angstrom Coefficient (AC predictions in the GISS-TOMAS model of global aerosol microphysics are evaluated against remote sensing data from MODIS, MISR, and AERONET. The model AOD agrees well (within a factor of two over polluted continental (or high sulfate, dusty, and moderate sea-salt regions but less well over the equatorial, high sea-salt, and biomass burning regions. Underprediction of sea-salt in the equatorial region is likely due to GCM meteorology (low wind speeds and high precipitation. For the Southern Ocean, overprediction of AOD is very likely due to high sea-salt emissions and perhaps aerosol water uptake in the model. However, uncertainties in cloud screening at high latitudes make it difficult to evaluate the model AOD there with the satellite-based AOD. AOD in biomass burning regions is underpredicted, a tendency found in other global models but more severely here. Using measurements from the LBA-SMOCC 2002 campaign, the surface-level OC concentration in the model are found to be underpredicted severely during the dry season while much less severely for EC concentration, suggesting the low AOD in the model is due to underpredictions in OM mass. The potential for errors in emissions and wet deposition to contribute to this bias is discussed.

  9. A global high-resolution model experiment on the predictability of the atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judt, F.

    2016-12-01

    Forecasting high-impact weather phenomena is one of the most important aspects of numerical weather prediction (NWP). Over the last couple of years, a tremendous increase in computing power has facilitated the advent of global convection-resolving NWP models, which allow for the seamless prediction of weather from local to planetary scales. Unfortunately, the predictability of specific meteorological phenomena in these models is not very well known. This raises questions about which forecast problems are potentially tractable, and what is the value of global convection-resolving model predictions for the end user. To address this issue, we use the Yellowstone supercomputer to conduct a global high-resolution predictability experiment with the recently developed Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). The computing power of Yellowstone enables the model to run at a globally uniform resolution of 4 km with 55 vertical levels (>2 billion grid cells). These simulations, which require 3 million core-hours for the entire experiment, allow for the explicit treatment of organized deep moist convection (i.e., thunderstorm systems). Resolving organized deep moist convection alleviates grave limitations of previous predictability studies, which either used high-resolution limited-area models or global simulations with coarser grids and cumulus parameterization. By computing the error growth characteristics in a set of "identical twin" model runs, the experiment will clarify the intrinsic predictability limits of atmospheric phenomena on a wide range of scales, from severe thunderstorms to global-scale wind patterns that affect the distribution of tropical rainfall. Although a major task by itself, this study is intended to be exploratory work for a future predictability experiment going beyond of what has so far been feasible. We hope to use CISL's new Cheyenne supercomputer to conduct a similar predictability experiments on a global mesh with 1-2 km resolution. This

  10. Progress in Global Multicompartmental Modelling of DDT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stemmler, I.; Lammel, G.

    2009-04-01

    Dichlorophenyltrichloroethane, DDT, and its major metabolite dichlorophenyldichloroethylene, DDE, are long-lived in the environment (persistent) and circulate since the 1950s. They accumulate along food chains, cause detrimental effects in marine and terrestrial wild life, and pose a hazard for human health. DDT was widely used as an insecticide in the past and is still in use in a number of tropical countries to combat vector borne diseases like malaria and typhus. It is a multicompartmental substance with only a small mass fraction residing in air. A global multicompartment chemistry transport model (MPI-MCTM; Semeena et al., 2006) is used to study the environmental distribution and fate of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT). For the first time a horizontally and vertically resolved global model was used to perform a long-term simulation of DDT and DDE. The model is based on general circulation models for the ocean (MPIOM; Marsland et al., 2003) and atmosphere (ECHAM5). In addition, an oceanic biogeochemistry model (HAMOCC5.1; Maier-Reimer et al., 2005 ) and a microphysical aerosol model (HAM; Stier et al., 2005 ) are included. Multicompartmental substances are cycling in atmosphere (3 phases), ocean (3 phases), top soil (3 phases), and vegetation surfaces. The model was run for 40 years forced with historical agricultural application data of 1950-1990. The model results show that the global environmental contamination started to decrease in air, soil and vegetation after the applications peaked in 1965-70. In some regions, however, the DDT mass had not yet reached a maximum in 1990 and was still accumulating mass until the end of the simulation. Modelled DDT and DDE concentrations in atmosphere, ocean and soil are evaluated by comparison with observational data. The evaluation of the model results indicate that degradation of DDE in air was underestimated. Also for DDT, the discrepancies between model results and observations are related to uncertainties of

  11. The future distribution of the savannah biome: model-based and biogeographic contingency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moncrieff, Glenn R; Scheiter, Simon; Langan, Liam; Trabucco, Antonio; Higgins, Steven I

    2016-09-19

    The extent of the savannah biome is expected to be profoundly altered by climatic change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Contrasting projections are given when using different modelling approaches to estimate future distributions. Furthermore, biogeographic variation within savannahs in plant function and structure is expected to lead to divergent responses to global change. Hence the use of a single model with a single savannah tree type will likely lead to biased projections. Here we compare and contrast projections of South American, African and Australian savannah distributions from the physiologically based Thornley transport resistance statistical distribution model (TTR-SDM)-and three versions of a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) designed and parametrized separately for specific continents. We show that attempting to extrapolate any continent-specific model globally biases projections. By 2070, all DVMs generally project a decrease in the extent of savannahs at their boundary with forests, whereas the TTR-SDM projects a decrease in savannahs at their boundary with aridlands and grasslands. This difference is driven by forest and woodland expansion in response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations in DVMs, unaccounted for by the TTR-SDM. We suggest that the most suitable models of the savannah biome for future development are individual-based dynamic vegetation models designed for specific biogeographic regions.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  12. The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Polet, J.; Thio, H. K.

    2017-12-01

    The tsunamis occurred worldwide in the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but often disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

  13. Predicting potential global distributions of two Miscanthus grasses: implications for horticulture, biofuel production, and biological invasions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hager, Heather A; Sinasac, Sarah E; Gedalof, Ze'ev; Newman, Jonathan A

    2014-01-01

    In many regions, large proportions of the naturalized and invasive non-native floras were originally introduced deliberately by humans. Pest risk assessments are now used in many jurisdictions to regulate the importation of species and usually include an estimation of the potential distribution in the import area. Two species of Asian grass (Miscanthus sacchariflorus and M. sinensis) that were originally introduced to North America as ornamental plants have since escaped cultivation. These species and their hybrid offspring are now receiving attention for large-scale production as biofuel crops in North America and elsewhere. We evaluated their potential global climate suitability for cultivation and potential invasion using the niche model CLIMEX and evaluated the models' sensitivity to the parameter values. We then compared the sensitivity of projections of future climatically suitable area under two climate models and two emissions scenarios. The models indicate that the species have been introduced to most of the potential global climatically suitable areas in the northern but not the southern hemisphere. The more narrowly distributed species (M. sacchariflorus) is more sensitive to changes in model parameters, which could have implications for modelling species of conservation concern. Climate projections indicate likely contractions in potential range in the south, but expansions in the north, particularly in introduced areas where biomass production trials are under way. Climate sensitivity analysis shows that projections differ more between the selected climate change models than between the selected emissions scenarios. Local-scale assessments are required to overlay suitable habitat with climate projections to estimate areas of cultivation potential and invasion risk.

  14. Terrestrial Feedbacks Incorporated in Global Vegetation Models through Observed Trait-Environment Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodegom, P. V.

    2015-12-01

    Most global vegetation models used to evaluate climate change impacts rely on plant functional types to describe vegetation responses to environmental stresses. In a traditional set-up in which vegetation characteristics are considered constant within a vegetation type, the possibility to implement and infer feedback mechanisms are limited as feedback mechanisms will likely involve a changing expression of community trait values. Based on community assembly concepts, we implemented functional trait-environment relationships into a global dynamic vegetation model to quantitatively assess this feature. For the current climate, a different global vegetation distribution was calculated with and without the inclusion of trait variation, emphasizing the importance of feedbacks -in interaction with competitive processes- for the prevailing global patterns. These trait-environmental responses do, however, not necessarily imply adaptive responses of vegetation to changing conditions and may locally lead to a faster turnover in vegetation upon climate change. Indeed, when running climate projections, simulations with trait variation did not yield a more stable or resilient vegetation than those without. Through the different feedback expressions, global and regional carbon and water fluxes were -however- strongly altered. At a global scale, model projections suggest an increased productivity and hence an increased carbon sink in the next decades to come, when including trait variation. However, by the end of the century, a reduced carbon sink is projected. This effect is due to a downregulation of photosynthesis rates, particularly in the tropical regions, even when accounting for CO2-fertilization effects. Altogether, the various global model simulations suggest the critical importance of including vegetation functional responses to changing environmental conditions to grasp terrestrial feedback mechanisms at global scales in the light of climate change.

  15. Modeling natural wetlands: A new global framework built on wetland observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, E.; Romanski, J.; Olefeldt, D.

    2015-12-01

    Natural wetlands are the world's largest methane (CH4) source, and their distribution and CH4 fluxes are sensitive to interannual and longer-term climate variations. Wetland distributions used in wetland-CH4 models diverge widely, and these geographic differences contribute substantially to large variations in magnitude, seasonality and distribution of modeled methane fluxes. Modeling wetland type and distribution—closely tied to simulating CH4 emissions—is a high priority, particularly for studies of wetlands and CH4 dynamics under past and future climates. Methane-wetland models either prescribe or simulate methane-producing areas (aka wetlands) and both approaches result in predictable over- and under-estimates. 1) Monthly satellite-derived inundation data include flooded areas that are not wetlands (e.g., lakes, reservoirs, and rivers), and do not identify non-flooded wetlands. 2) Models simulating methane-producing areas overwhelmingly rely on modeled soil moisture, systematically over-estimating total global area, with regional over- and under-estimates, while schemes to model soil-moisture typically cannot account for positive water tables (i.e., flooding). Interestingly, while these distinct hydrological approaches to identify wetlands are complementary, merging them does not provide critical data needed to model wetlands for methane studies. We present a new integrated framework for modeling wetlands, and ultimately their methane emissions, that exploits the extensive body of data and information on wetlands. The foundation of the approach is an existing global gridded data set comprising all and only wetlands, including vegetation information. This data set is augmented with data inter alia on climate, inundation dynamics, soil type and soil carbon, permafrost, active-layer depth, growth form, and species composition. We investigate this enhanced wetland data set to identify which variables best explain occurrence and characteristics of observed

  16. Global model structures for ∗-modules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Böhme, Benjamin

    2018-01-01

    We extend Schwede's work on the unstable global homotopy theory of orthogonal spaces and L-spaces to the category of ∗-modules (i.e., unstable S-modules). We prove a theorem which transports model structures and their properties from L-spaces to ∗-modules and show that the resulting global model...... structure for ∗-modules is monoidally Quillen equivalent to that of orthogonal spaces. As a consequence, there are induced Quillen equivalences between the associated model categories of monoids, which identify equivalent models for the global homotopy theory of A∞-spaces....

  17. Historical change in fish species distribution: shifting reference conditions and global warming effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pont, Didier; Logez, M; Carrel, G; Rogers, C; Haidvogl, G

    Species distributions models (SDM) that rely on estimated relationships between present environmental conditions and species presence-absence are widely used to forecast changes of species distributions caused by global warming but far less to reconstruct historical assemblages. By compiling historical fish data from the turn to the middle of the twentieth century in a similar way for several European catchments (Rhône, Danube), and using already published SDMs based on current observations, we: (1) tested the predictive accuracy of such models for past climatic conditions, (2) compared observed and expected cumulated historical species occurrences at sub-catchment level, and (3) compared the annual variability in the predictions within one sub-catchment (Salzach) under a future climate scenario to the long-term variability of occurrences reconstructed during an extended historical period (1800-2000). We finally discuss the potential of these SDMs to define a "reference condition", the possibility of a shift in baseline condition in relation with anthropogenic pressures, and past and future climate variability. The results of this study clearly highlight the potential of SDM to reconstruct the past composition of European fish assemblages and to analyze the historical ecological status of European rivers. Assessing the uncertainty associated with species distribution projections is of primary importance before evaluating and comparing the past and future distribution of species within a given catchment.

  18. HYSOGs250m, global gridded hydrologic soil groups for curve-number-based runoff modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, C Wade; Prihodko, Lara; Anchang, Julius; Kumar, Sanath; Ji, Wenjie; Hanan, Niall P

    2018-05-15

    Hydrologic soil groups (HSGs) are a fundamental component of the USDA curve-number (CN) method for estimation of rainfall runoff; yet these data are not readily available in a format or spatial-resolution suitable for regional- and global-scale modeling applications. We developed a globally consistent, gridded dataset defining HSGs from soil texture, bedrock depth, and groundwater. The resulting data product-HYSOGs250m-represents runoff potential at 250 m spatial resolution. Our analysis indicates that the global distribution of soil is dominated by moderately high runoff potential, followed by moderately low, high, and low runoff potential. Low runoff potential, sandy soils are found primarily in parts of the Sahara and Arabian Deserts. High runoff potential soils occur predominantly within tropical and sub-tropical regions. No clear pattern could be discerned for moderately low runoff potential soils, as they occur in arid and humid environments and at both high and low elevations. Potential applications of this data include CN-based runoff modeling, flood risk assessment, and as a covariate for biogeographical analysis of vegetation distributions.

  19. Global and Seasonal Distributions of CHOCHO and HCHO Observed by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument on EOS Aura

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurosu, T. P.; Fu, T.; Volkamer, R.; Millet, D. B.; Chance, K.

    2006-12-01

    Over the two years since its launch in July 2004, the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on EOS Aura has demonstrated the capability to routinely monitor the volatile organic compounds (VOCs) formaldehyde (HCHO) and glyoxal (CHOCHO). OMI's daily global coverage and spatial resolution as high as 13x24 km provides a unique data set of these molecules for the study of air quality from space. We present the first study of global seasonal distributions of CHOCHO from space, derived from a year of OMI observations. CHOCHO distributions are compared to simultaneous retrievals of HCHO from OMI, providing a first indication of seasonally resolved ratios of these VOCs on a global scale. Satellite retrievals are compared to global simulations of HCHO and CHOCHO, based on current knowledge of sources and sinks, using the GEOS-Chem global chemistry and transport model. Formaldehyde is both directly emitted and also produced from the oxidation of many VOCs, notably biogenic isoprene, and is removed by photolysis and oxidation. Precursors of glyoxal include isoprene, monoterpenes, and aromatics from anthropogenic, biogenic, and biomass burning emissions; it is removed by photolysis, oxidation by OH, dry/wet deposition, and aerosol uptake. As a case study, satellite observations will also be compared to ground-based measurements taken during the Pearl River Delta 2006 field campaign near Guangzhou, China, where high glyoxal concentrations are frequently observed from space.

  20. Modelling three-dimensional distribution of photosynthetically active radiation in sloping coniferous stands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knyazikhin, Yu.; Kranigk, J.; Miessen, G.; Panfyorov, O.; Vygodskaya, N.; Gravenhorst, G.

    1996-01-01

    Solar irradiance is a major environmental factor governing biological and physiological processes in a vegetation canopy. Solar radiation distribution in a canopy and its effect are three-dimensional in nature. However, most of the radiation models up to now have been one-dimensional. They can be successfully applied to large-scale studies of forest functioning. The one-dimensional modelling technique, however, does not provide adequate interpretation of small scale processes leading to forest growth. In this article we discuss a modelling strategy for the simulation of three-dimensional radiation distribution in a vegetation canopy of a small area (about 0.25–0.3 ha). We demonstrate its realisation to predict the three-dimensional radiative regime of phytosynthetically active radiation in a real coniferous stand located on hilly surroundings. Our model can be used to investigate the influence of different climatic conditions, forest management methods and field sites on the solar energy available for forest growth in small heterogeneous areas. Further, a three-dimensional process-oriented model helps to derive global variables affecting bio-physiological processes in a vegetation canopy shifting from small scale studies of the functioning of forests to regional, continental, and global scale problems. (author)

  1. Incorporating nitrogen fixing cyanobacteria in the global biogeochemical model HAMOCC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, Hanna; Ilyina, Tatiana; Six, Katharina

    2015-04-01

    Nitrogen fixation by marine diazotrophs plays a fundamental role in the oceanic nitrogen and carbon cycle as it provides a major source of 'new' nitrogen to the euphotic zone that supports biological carbon export and sequestration. Since most global biogeochemical models include nitrogen fixation only diagnostically, they are not able to capture its spatial pattern sufficiently. Here we present the incorporation of an explicit, dynamic representation of diazotrophic cyanobacteria and the corresponding nitrogen fixation in the global ocean biogeochemical model HAMOCC (Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model), which is part of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth system model (MPI-ESM). The parameterization of the diazotrophic growth is thereby based on available knowledge about the cyanobacterium Trichodesmium spp., which is considered as the most significant pelagic nitrogen fixer. Evaluation against observations shows that the model successfully reproduces the main spatial distribution of cyanobacteria and nitrogen fixation, covering large parts of the tropical and subtropical oceans. Besides the role of cyanobacteria in marine biogeochemical cycles, their capacity to form extensive surface blooms induces a number of bio-physical feedback mechanisms in the Earth system. The processes driving these interactions, which are related to the alteration of heat absorption, surface albedo and momentum input by wind, are incorporated in the biogeochemical and physical model of the MPI-ESM in order to investigate their impacts on a global scale. First preliminary results will be shown.

  2. The Role of External Inputs and Internal Cycling in Shaping the Global Ocean Cobalt Distribution: Insights From the First Cobalt Biogeochemical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagliabue, Alessandro; Hawco, Nicholas J.; Bundy, Randelle M.; Landing, William M.; Milne, Angela; Morton, Peter L.; Saito, Mak A.

    2018-04-01

    Cobalt is an important micronutrient for ocean microbes as it is present in vitamin B12 and is a co-factor in various metalloenzymes that catalyze cellular processes. Moreover, when seawater availability of cobalt is compared to biological demands, cobalt emerges as being depleted in seawater, pointing to a potentially important limiting role. To properly account for the potential biological role for cobalt, there is therefore a need to understand the processes driving the biogeochemical cycling of cobalt and, in particular, the balance between external inputs and internal cycling. To do so, we developed the first cobalt model within a state-of-the-art three-dimensional global ocean biogeochemical model. Overall, our model does a good job in reproducing measurements with a correlation coefficient of >0.7 in the surface and >0.5 at depth. We find that continental margins are the dominant source of cobalt, with a crucial role played by supply under low bottom-water oxygen conditions. The basin-scale distribution of cobalt supplied from margins is facilitated by the activity of manganese-oxidizing bacteria being suppressed under low oxygen and low temperatures, which extends the residence time of cobalt. Overall, we find a residence time of 7 and 250 years in the upper 250 m and global ocean, respectively. Importantly, we find that the dominant internal resupply process switches from regeneration and recycling of particulate cobalt to dissolution of scavenged cobalt between the upper ocean and the ocean interior. Our model highlights key regions of the ocean where biological activity may be most sensitive to cobalt availability.

  3. Invited review: A position on the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, M J; Vellinga, T; Opio, C; Falcucci, A; Tempio, G; Henderson, B; Makkar, H; Mottet, A; Robinson, T; Steinfeld, H; Gerber, P J

    2018-02-01

    The livestock sector is one of the fastest growing subsectors of the agricultural economy and, while it makes a major contribution to global food supply and economic development, it also consumes significant amounts of natural resources and alters the environment. In order to improve our understanding of the global environmental impact of livestock supply chains, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has developed the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM). The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of GLEAM. Specifically, it explains the model architecture, methods and functionality, that is the types of analysis that the model can perform. The model focuses primarily on the quantification of greenhouse gases emissions arising from the production of the 11 main livestock commodities. The model inputs and outputs are managed and produced as raster data sets, with spatial resolution of 0.05 decimal degrees. The Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model v1.0 consists of five distinct modules: (a) the Herd Module; (b) the Manure Module; (c) the Feed Module; (d) the System Module; (e) the Allocation Module. In terms of the modelling approach, GLEAM has several advantages. For example spatial information on livestock distributions and crops yields enables rations to be derived that reflect the local availability of feed resources in developing countries. The Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model also contains a herd model that enables livestock statistics to be disaggregated and variation in livestock performance and management to be captured. Priorities for future development of GLEAM include: improving data quality and the methods used to perform emissions calculations; extending the scope of the model to include selected additional environmental impacts and to enable predictive modelling; and improving the utility of GLEAM output.

  4. Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, Jenny, H.-T.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2012-01-01

    Changes in rainfall characteristic induced by global warming are examined from outputs of IPCC AR5 models. Different scenarios of climate warming including a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a medium mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5), and 1% per year CO2 increase are compared to 20th century simulations (historical). Results show that even though the spatial distribution of monthly rainfall anomalies vary greatly among models, the ensemble mean from a sizable sample (about 10) of AR5 models show a robust signal attributable to GHG warming featuring a shift in the global rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) with significant increase (>100%) in very heavy rain, reduction (10-20% ) in moderate rain and increase in light to very light rains. Changes in extreme rainfall as a function of seasons and latitudes are also examined, and are similar to the non-seasonal stratified data, but with more specific spatial dependence. These results are consistent from TRMM and GPCP rainfall observations suggesting that extreme rainfall events are occurring more frequently with wet areas getting wetter and dry-area-getting drier in a GHG induced warmer climate.

  5. Distributed team cohesion – not an oxymoron. The impact of information and communications technologies on teamness in globally distributed IT projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Stawnicza

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Globally distributed IT projects are common practice in today’s globalized world. Typically, project team members’ work on interdependent tasks, with a common goal to be achieved as one team. However, being split between multiple locations impedes communication among team members and hampers the development of trust. Information and communications media enable communication between geographically distributed project team members and help to create and maintain trust within project units. Communication and trust are particularly significant for fostering a feeling of oneness among project team members. Oneness, also referred to as “teamness”, is repeatedly mentioned as one of the challenges facing global project teams. However, prior literature on teamness is very scarce and its importance is underrepresented. This research contributes to the field in two ways. First, the theoretical study based on a systematic literature review examines available evidence of teamness in globally distributed projects. Secondly, an empirical study based on interviews conducted with global project managers fills the current gap in literature on the link between use of ICT and establishing a sense of team unity. This paper draws practitioners’ attention to the importance of striving for teamness in spite of the geographical distance that exists between project team members.

  6. On coupling global biome models with climate models

    OpenAIRE

    Claussen, M.

    1994-01-01

    The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992; J. Biogeogr. 19: 117-134), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, was coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fiir Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany. It was found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only betw...

  7. Modelling the role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance by incorporating SPITFIRE into the global vegetation modelORCHIDEE - Part 1: Simulating historical global burned area and fire regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Yue; P. Ciais; P. Cadule; K. Thonicke; S. Archibald; B. Poulter; W. M. Hao; S. Hantson; F. Mouillot; P. Friedlingstein; F. Maignan; N. Viovy

    2014-01-01

    Fire is an important global ecological process that influences the distribution of biomes, with consequences for carbon, water, and energy budgets. Therefore it is impossible to appropriately model the history and future of the terrestrial ecosystems and the climate system without including fire. This study incorporates the process-based prognostic fire module SPITFIRE...

  8. Species distribution models and impact factor growth in environmental journals: methodological fashion or the attraction of global change science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brotons, Lluís

    2014-01-01

    In this work, I evaluate the impact of species distribution models (SDMs) on the current status of environmental and ecological journals by asking the question to which degree development of SDMs in the literature is related to recent changes in the impact factors of ecological journals. The hypothesis evaluated states that research fronts are likely to attract research attention and potentially drive citation patterns, with journals concentrating papers related to the research front receiving more attention and benefiting from faster increases in their impact on the ecological literature. My results indicate a positive relationship between the number of SDM related articles published in a journal and its impact factor (IF) growth during the period 2000-09. However, the percentage of SDM related papers in a journal was strongly and positively associated with the percentage of papers on climate change and statistical issues. The results support the hypothesis that global change science has been critical in the development of SDMs and that interest in climate change research in particular, rather than the usage of SDM per se, appears as an important factor behind journal IF increases in ecology and environmental sciences. Finally, our results on SDM application in global change science support the view that scientific interest rather than methodological fashion appears to be the major driver of research attraction in the scientific literature.

  9. The impact of organochlorines cycling in the cryosphere on their global distribution and fate – 1. Sea ice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guglielmo, Francesca; Stemmler, Irene; Lammel, Gerhard

    2012-01-01

    Global fate and transport of γ-HCH and DDT was studied using a global multicompartment chemistry-transport model, MPI-MCTM, with and without a dynamic sea ice compartment. The MPI-MCTM is based on coupled ocean and atmosphere general circulation models. Sea ice hosts 7–9% of the burden of the surface ocean. Without cycling in sea ice the geographic distributions are shifted from land to sea. This shift of burdens exceeds the sea ice burden by a factor of ≈8 for γ-HCH and by a factor of ≈15 for DDT. As regional scale seasonal sea ice melting may double surface ocean contamination, a neglect of cycling in sea ice (in an otherwise unchanged model climate) would underestimate ocean exposure in high latitudes. Furthermore, it would lead to overestimates of the residence times in ocean by 40% and 33% and of the total environmental residence times, τ overall , of γ-HCH and DDT by 1.6% and 0.6%, respectively. - Highlights: ► Sea ice hosts 7–9% of the burden of γ-HCH and DDT in the surface ocean. ► Without cycling in sea ice the distributions are shifted from land to sea. ► A neglect of cycling in sea ice would underestimate ocean exposure in high latitudes. ► Persistence of γ-HCH and DDT expected enhanced in climate without sea ice. - The inclusion of cycling in sea ice is found relevant for POPs fate and transport modelling on the global scale.

  10. Global Exponential Stability of Periodic Oscillation for Nonautonomous BAM Neural Networks with Distributed Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongli Liu

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available We derive a new criterion for checking the global stability of periodic oscillation of bidirectional associative memory (BAM neural networks with periodic coefficients and distributed delay, and find that the criterion relies on the Lipschitz constants of the signal transmission functions, weights of the neural network, and delay kernels. The proposed model transforms the original interacting network into matrix analysis problem which is easy to check, thereby significantly reducing the computational complexity and making analysis of periodic oscillation for even large-scale networks.

  11. Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling: An Earth Systems Modelling Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Berrien, III; Sahagian, Dork

    1997-01-01

    The Goal of the GAIM is: To advance the study of the coupled dynamics of the Earth system using as tools both data and models; to develop a strategy for the rapid development, evaluation, and application of comprehensive prognostic models of the Global Biogeochemical Subsystem which could eventually be linked with models of the Physical-Climate Subsystem; to propose, promote, and facilitate experiments with existing models or by linking subcomponent models, especially those associated with IGBP Core Projects and with WCRP efforts. Such experiments would be focused upon resolving interface issues and questions associated with developing an understanding of the prognostic behavior of key processes; to clarify key scientific issues facing the development of Global Biogeochemical Models and the coupling of these models to General Circulation Models; to assist the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process by conducting timely studies that focus upon elucidating important unresolved scientific issues associated with the changing biogeochemical cycles of the planet and upon the role of the biosphere in the physical-climate subsystem, particularly its role in the global hydrological cycle; and to advise the SC-IGBP on progress in developing comprehensive Global Biogeochemical Models and to maintain scientific liaison with the WCRP Steering Group on Global Climate Modelling.

  12. Hierarchical species distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.

    2016-01-01

    Determining the distribution pattern of a species is important to increase scientific knowledge, inform management decisions, and conserve biodiversity. To infer spatial and temporal patterns, species distribution models have been developed for use with many sampling designs and types of data. Recently, it has been shown that count, presence-absence, and presence-only data can be conceptualized as arising from a point process distribution. Therefore, it is important to understand properties of the point process distribution. We examine how the hierarchical species distribution modeling framework has been used to incorporate a wide array of regression and theory-based components while accounting for the data collection process and making use of auxiliary information. The hierarchical modeling framework allows us to demonstrate how several commonly used species distribution models can be derived from the point process distribution, highlight areas of potential overlap between different models, and suggest areas where further research is needed.

  13. Global stability results for a generalized Lotka-Volterra system with distributed delays. Applications to predator-prey and to epidemic systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beretta, E; Capasso, V; Rinaldi, F

    1988-01-01

    The paper contains an extension of the general ODE system proposed in previous papers by the same authors, to include distributed time delays in the interaction terms. The new system describes a large class of Lotka-Volterra like population models and epidemic models with continuous time delays. Sufficient conditions for the boundedness of solutions and for the global asymptotic stability of nontrivial equilibrium solutions are given. A detailed analysis of the epidemic system is given with respect to the conditions for global stability. For a relevant subclass of these systems an existence criterion for steady states is also given.

  14. Matching global and regional distribution models of the recluse spider Loxosceles rufescens: to what extent do these reflect niche conservatism?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taucare-Ríos, A; Nentwig, W; Bizama, G; Bustamante, R O

    2018-06-08

    The Mediterranean recluse spider, Loxosceles rufescens (Dufour, 1820) (Araneae: Sicariidae) is a cosmopolitan spider that has been introduced in many parts of the world. Its bite can be dangerous to humans. However, the potential distribution of this alien species, which is able to spread fairly quickly with human aid, is completely unknown. Using a combination of global and regional niche models, it is possible to analyse the spread of this species in relation to environmental conditions. This analysis found that the successful spreading of this species varies according to the region invaded. The majority of populations in Asia are stable and show niche conservatism, whereas in North America this spider is expected to be less successful in occupying niches that differ from those in its native region and that do not support its synanthropic way of living. © 2018 The Royal Entomological Society.

  15. New global ICT-based business models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    The New Global Business model (NEWGIBM) book describes the background, theory references, case studies, results and learning imparted by the NEWGIBM project, which is supported by ICT, to a research group during the period from 2005-2011. The book is a result of the efforts and the collaborative ...... The NEWGIBM Cases Show? The Strategy Concept in Light of the Increased Importance of Innovative Business Models Successful Implementation of Global BM Innovation Globalisation Of ICT Based Business Models: Today And In 2020......The New Global Business model (NEWGIBM) book describes the background, theory references, case studies, results and learning imparted by the NEWGIBM project, which is supported by ICT, to a research group during the period from 2005-2011. The book is a result of the efforts and the collaborative....... The NEWGIBM book serves as a part of the final evaluation and documentation of the NEWGIBM project and is supported by results from the following projects: M-commerce, Global Innovation, Global Ebusiness & M-commerce, The Blue Ocean project, International Center for Innovation and Women in Business, NEFFICS...

  16. Modeling Global Biogenic Emission of Isoprene: Exploration of Model Drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Susan E.; Potter, Christopher S.; Coughlan, Joseph C.; Klooster, Steven A.; Lerdau, Manuel T.; Chatfield, Robert B.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    Vegetation provides the major source of isoprene emission to the atmosphere. We present a modeling approach to estimate global biogenic isoprene emission. The isoprene flux model is linked to a process-based computer simulation model of biogenic trace-gas fluxes that operates on scales that link regional and global data sets and ecosystem nutrient transformations Isoprene emission estimates are determined from estimates of ecosystem specific biomass, emission factors, and algorithms based on light and temperature. Our approach differs from an existing modeling framework by including the process-based global model for terrestrial ecosystem production, satellite derived ecosystem classification, and isoprene emission measurements from a tropical deciduous forest. We explore the sensitivity of model estimates to input parameters. The resulting emission products from the global 1 degree x 1 degree coverage provided by the satellite datasets and the process model allow flux estimations across large spatial scales and enable direct linkage to atmospheric models of trace-gas transport and transformation.

  17. Aging transition in systems of oscillators with global distributed-delay coupling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, B; Blyuss, K B; Kyrychko, Y N

    2017-09-01

    We consider a globally coupled network of active (oscillatory) and inactive (nonoscillatory) oscillators with distributed-delay coupling. Conditions for aging transition, associated with suppression of oscillations, are derived for uniform and gamma delay distributions in terms of coupling parameters and the proportion of inactive oscillators. The results suggest that for the uniform distribution increasing the width of distribution for the same mean delay allows aging transition to happen for a smaller coupling strength and a smaller proportion of inactive elements. For gamma distribution with sufficiently large mean time delay, it may be possible to achieve aging transition for an arbitrary proportion of inactive oscillators, as long as the coupling strength lies in a certain range.

  18. Effects of global changes on the climatic niche of the tick Ixodes ricinus inferred by species distribution modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porretta, Daniele; Mastrantonio, Valentina; Amendolia, Sara; Gaiarsa, Stefano; Epis, Sara; Genchi, Claudio; Bandi, Claudio; Otranto, Domenico; Urbanelli, Sandra

    2013-09-19

    Global climate change can seriously impact on the epidemiological dynamics of vector-borne diseases. In this study we investigated how future climatic changes could affect the climatic niche of Ixodes ricinus (Acari, Ixodida), among the most important vectors of pathogens of medical and veterinary concern in Europe. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to reconstruct the climatic niche of I. ricinus, and to project it into the future conditions for 2050 and 2080, under two scenarios: a continuous human demographic growth and a severe increase of gas emissions (scenario A2), and a scenario that proposes lower human demographic growth than A2, and a more sustainable gas emissions (scenario B2). Models were reconstructed using the algorithm of "maximum entropy", as implemented in the software Maxent 3.3.3e; 4,544 occurrence points and 15 bioclimatic variables were used. In both scenarios an increase of climatic niche of about two times greater than the current area was predicted as well as a higher climatic suitability under the scenario B2 than A2. Such an increase occurred both in a latitudinal and longitudinal way, including northern Eurasian regions (e.g. Sweden and Russia), that were previously unsuitable for the species. Our models are congruent with the predictions of range expansion already observed in I. ricinus at a regional scale and provide a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the future climatically suitable areas for I. ricinus at a continental scale. Although the use of SDM at a higher resolution should be integrated by a more refined analysis of further abiotic and biotic data, the results presented here suggest that under future climatic scenarios most of the current distribution area of I. ricinus could remain suitable and significantly increase at a continental geographic scale. Therefore disease outbreaks of pathogens transmitted by this tick species could emerge in previous non-endemic geographic areas. Further studies will

  19. Global Software and IT A Guide to Distributed Development, Projects, and Outsourcing

    CERN Document Server

    Ebert, Christof

    2011-01-01

    Global software engineering, implying both internal and outsourced development, is a fast-growing scenario within industry; the growth rates in some sectors are more than 20% per year. However, half of all offshoring activities are cancelled within the first 2 years, at tremendous unanticipated cost to the organization.   This book will provide a more balanced framework for planning global development, covering topics such as managing people in distributed sites, managing a project across locations, mitigating the risk of offshoring, processes for global development, practical outsourcin

  20. The effect of harmonized emissions on aerosol properties in global models – an AeroCom experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Textor

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available The effects of unified aerosol sources on global aerosol fields simulated by different models are examined in this paper. We compare results from two AeroCom experiments, one with different (ExpA and one with unified emissions, injection heights, and particle sizes at the source (ExpB. Surprisingly, harmonization of aerosol sources has only a small impact on the simulated inter-model diversity of the global aerosol burden, and consequently global optical properties, as the results are largely controlled by model-specific transport, removal, chemistry (leading to the formation of secondary aerosols and parameterizations of aerosol microphysics (e.g., the split between deposition pathways and to a lesser extent by the spatial and temporal distributions of the (precursor emissions.

    The burdens of black carbon and especially sea salt become more coherent in ExpB only, because the large ExpA diversities for these two species were caused by a few outliers. The experiment also showed that despite prescribing emission fluxes and size distributions, ambiguities in the implementation in individual models can lead to substantial differences.

    These results indicate the need for a better understanding of aerosol life cycles at process level (including spatial dispersal and interaction with meteorological parameters in order to obtain more reliable results from global aerosol simulations. This is particularly important as such model results are used to assess the consequences of specific air pollution abatement strategies.

  1. Opportunities drive the global distribution of protected areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Germán Baldi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Background Protected areas, regarded today as a cornerstone of nature conservation, result from an array of multiple motivations and opportunities. We explored at global and regional levels the current distribution of protected areas along biophysical, human, and biological gradients, and assessed to what extent protection has pursued (i a balanced representation of biophysical environments, (ii a set of preferred conditions (biological, spiritual, economic, or geopolitical, or (iii existing opportunities for conservation regardless of any representation or preference criteria. Methods We used histograms to describe the distribution of terrestrial protected areas along biophysical, human, and biological independent gradients and linear and non-linear regression and correlation analyses to describe the sign, shape, and strength of the relationships. We used a random forest analysis to rank the importance of different variables related to conservation preferences and opportunity drivers, and an evenness metric to quantify representativeness. Results We find that protection at a global level is primarily driven by the opportunities provided by isolation and a low population density (variable importance = 34.6 and 19.9, respectively. Preferences play a secondary role, with a bias towards tourism attractiveness and proximity to international borders (variable importance = 12.7 and 3.4, respectively. Opportunities shape protection strongly in “North America & Australia–NZ” and “Latin America & Caribbean,” while the importance of the representativeness of biophysical environments is higher in “Sub-Saharan Africa” (1.3 times the average of other regions. Discussion Environmental representativeness and biodiversity protection are top priorities in land conservation agendas. However, our results suggest that they have been minor players driving current protection at both global and regional levels. Attempts to increase their relevance will

  2. A global survey of the distribution of free gas in marine sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleischer, Peter; Orsi, Tim; Richardson, Michael

    2003-10-01

    Following the work of Aubrey Anderson in the Gulf of Mexico, we have attempted to quantify the global distribution of free gas in shallow marine sediments, and have identified and indexed over one hundred documented cases in the scientific and engineering literature. Our survey confirms previous assumptions, primarily that gas bubbles are ubiquitous in the organic-rich muds of coastal waters and shallow adjacent seas. Acoustic turbidity as recorded during seismo-acoustic surveys is the most frequently cited evidence used to infer the presence of seafloor gas. Biogenic methane predominates within these shallow subbottom deposits. The survey also reveals significant imbalances in the geographic distribution of studies, which might be addressed in the future by accessing proprietary data or local studies with limited distribution. Because of their global prevalence, growing interest in gassy marine sediments is understandable as their presence has profound scientific, engineering and environmental implications.

  3. Impact of global warming on the geobotanic zones: an experiment with a statistical-dynamical climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franchito, Sergio H.; Brahmananda Rao, V. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Ciencia do Sistema Terrestre, CCST, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil); Moraes, E.C. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Divisao de Sensoriamento Remoto, DSR, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2011-11-15

    In this study, a zonally-averaged statistical climate model (SDM) is used to investigate the impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe. The model includes a parameterization of the biogeophysical feedback mechanism that links the state of surface to the atmosphere (a bidirectional interaction between vegetation and climate). In the control experiment (simulation of the present-day climate) the geobotanic state is well simulated by the model, so that the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe shows a very good agreement with the observed ones. The impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones is investigated considering the increase of CO{sub 2} concentration for the B1, A2 and A1FI scenarios. The results showed that the geobotanic zones over the entire earth can be modified in future due to global warming. Expansion of subtropical desert and semi-desert zones in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, retreat of glaciers and sea-ice, with the Arctic region being particularly affected and a reduction of the tropical rainforest and boreal forest can occur due to the increase of the greenhouse gases concentration. The effects were more pronounced in the A1FI and A2 scenarios compared with the B1 scenario. The SDM results confirm IPCC AR4 projections of future climate and are consistent with simulations of more complex GCMs, reinforcing the necessity of the mitigation of climate change associated to global warming. (orig.)

  4. Global scale groundwater flow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutanudjaja, Edwin; de Graaf, Inge; van Beek, Ludovicus; Bierkens, Marc

    2013-04-01

    As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater sustains water flows in streams, rivers, lakes and wetlands, and thus supports ecosystem habitat and biodiversity, while its large natural storage provides a buffer against water shortages. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models does not include a groundwater flow component that is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle and allows the simulation of groundwater head dynamics. In this study we present a steady-state MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) groundwater model on the global scale at 5 arc-minutes resolution. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological model (e.g. Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moorsdorff, in press). We force the groundwtaer model with the output from the large-scale hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the long term net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. We validated calculated groundwater heads and depths with available head observations, from different regions, including the North and South America and Western Europe. Our results show that it is feasible to build a relatively simple global scale groundwater model using existing information, and estimate water table depths within acceptable accuracy in many parts of the world.

  5. Path to 'Stardom' in Globally Distributed Hybrid Teams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sarker, Suprateek; Hove-Kirkeby, Sarah; Sarker, Saonee

    2011-01-01

    recognition that specific individuals within such teams are often critical to the team's performance. Consequently, existing knowledge about such teams may be enhanced by examining the factors that affect the performance of individual team members. This study attempts to address this need by identifying...... individuals who emerge as “stars” in globally distributed teams involved in knowledge work such as information systems development (ISD). Specifically, the study takes a knowledge-centered view in explaining which factors lead to “stardom” in such teams. Further, it adopts a social network approach consistent......Although distributed teams have been researched extensively in information systems and decision science disciplines, a review of the literature suggests that the dominant focus has been on understanding the factors affecting performance at the team level. There has however been an increasing...

  6. Accounting for selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forested trees based on structural modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ay, Jean-Sauveur; Guillemot, Joannès; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K.; Doyen, Luc; Leadley, Paul

    2015-04-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global change on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of application on forested trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8 km). We also compared the output of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM in term of bioclimatic response curves and potential distribution under current climate. According to the species and the spatial resolution of the calibration dataset, shapes of bioclimatic response curves the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between the SSDM and classical SDMs. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents a crucial step to account for economic constraints on tree

  7. Distributed Bayesian Networks for User Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tedesco, Roberto; Dolog, Peter; Nejdl, Wolfgang

    2006-01-01

    The World Wide Web is a popular platform for providing eLearning applications to a wide spectrum of users. However – as users differ in their preferences, background, requirements, and goals – applications should provide personalization mechanisms. In the Web context, user models used by such ada......The World Wide Web is a popular platform for providing eLearning applications to a wide spectrum of users. However – as users differ in their preferences, background, requirements, and goals – applications should provide personalization mechanisms. In the Web context, user models used...... by such adaptive applications are often partial fragments of an overall user model. The fragments have then to be collected and merged into a global user profile. In this paper we investigate and present algorithms able to cope with distributed, fragmented user models – based on Bayesian Networks – in the context...... of Web-based eLearning platforms. The scenario we are tackling assumes learners who use several systems over time, which are able to create partial Bayesian Networks for user models based on the local system context. In particular, we focus on how to merge these partial user models. Our merge mechanism...

  8. Parameter identification and global sensitivity analysis of Xin'anjiang model using meta-modeling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-meng Song

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model is a key step in model uncertainty quantification, which can identify the dominant parameters, reduce the model calibration uncertainty, and enhance the model optimization efficiency. There are, however, some shortcomings in classical approaches, including the long duration of time and high computation cost required to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of a multiple-parameter hydrological model. For this reason, a two-step statistical evaluation framework using global techniques is presented. It is based on (1 a screening method (Morris for qualitative ranking of parameters, and (2 a variance-based method integrated with a meta-model for quantitative sensitivity analysis, i.e., the Sobol method integrated with the response surface model (RSMSobol. First, the Morris screening method was used to qualitatively identify the parameters' sensitivity, and then ten parameters were selected to quantify the sensitivity indices. Subsequently, the RSMSobol method was used to quantify the sensitivity, i.e., the first-order and total sensitivity indices based on the response surface model (RSM were calculated. The RSMSobol method can not only quantify the sensitivity, but also reduce the computational cost, with good accuracy compared to the classical approaches. This approach will be effective and reliable in the global sensitivity analysis of a complex large-scale distributed hydrological model.

  9. LPJmL4 - a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land - Part 1: Model description

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaphoff, Sibyll; von Bloh, Werner; Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Biemans, Hester; Forkel, Matthias; Gerten, Dieter; Heinke, Jens; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Knauer, Jürgen; Langerwisch, Fanny; Lucht, Wolfgang; Müller, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne; Waha, Katharina

    2018-04-01

    This paper provides a comprehensive description of the newest version of the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model with managed Land, LPJmL4. This model simulates - internally consistently - the growth and productivity of both natural and agricultural vegetation as coherently linked through their water, carbon, and energy fluxes. These features render LPJmL4 suitable for assessing a broad range of feedbacks within and impacts upon the terrestrial biosphere as increasingly shaped by human activities such as climate change and land use change. Here we describe the core model structure, including recently developed modules now unified in LPJmL4. Thereby, we also review LPJmL model developments and evaluations in the field of permafrost, human and ecological water demand, and improved representation of crop types. We summarize and discuss LPJmL model applications dealing with the impacts of historical and future environmental change on the terrestrial biosphere at regional and global scale and provide a comprehensive overview of LPJmL publications since the first model description in 2007. To demonstrate the main features of the LPJmL4 model, we display reference simulation results for key processes such as the current global distribution of natural and managed ecosystems, their productivities, and associated water fluxes. A thorough evaluation of the model is provided in a companion paper. By making the model source code freely available at https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL" target="_blank">https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL, we hope to stimulate the application and further development of LPJmL4 across scientific communities in support of major activities such as the IPCC and SDG process.

  10. Competing with the use of business model innovation : an exploratory case study of the journey of born global firms

    OpenAIRE

    Johansson, Marlene; Abrahamsson, Jan

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to investigate how business models are used by born global firms to act upon new business opportunities and how they manage business model innovation over time to prosper and grow. Design/Methodology: The study is based on three exploratory case studies of born global firms in mobile communication, financial services and digital music distribution. Findings: Three interrelated capabilities to manage business model innovation are articulated in...

  11. Modelling Groundwater Depletion at Regional and Global Scales: Present State and Future Prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Yoshihide

    2015-01-01

    Except for frozen water in ice and glaciers, groundwater is the world's largest distributed store of freshwater and has strategic importance to global food and water security. In this paper, the most recent advances quantifying groundwater depletion (GWD) are comprehensively reviewed. This paper critically evaluates the recently advanced modeling approaches estimating GWD at regional and global scales, and the evidence of feedbacks to the Earth system including sea-level rise associated with GWD. Finally, critical challenges and opportunities in the use of groundwater are identified for the adaption to growing food demand and uncertain climate.

  12. The global distribution and dynamics of chromophoric dissolved organic matter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Norman B; Siegel, David A

    2013-01-01

    Chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is a ubiquitous component of the open ocean dissolved matter pool, and is important owing to its influence on the optical properties of the water column, its role in photochemistry and photobiology, and its utility as a tracer of deep ocean biogeochemical processes and circulation. In this review, we discuss the global distribution and dynamics of CDOM in the ocean, concentrating on developments in the past 10 years and restricting our discussion to open ocean and deep ocean (below the main thermocline) environments. CDOM has been demonstrated to exert primary control on ocean color by its absorption of light energy, which matches or exceeds that of phytoplankton pigments in most cases. This has important implications for assessing the ocean biosphere via ocean color-based remote sensing and the evaluation of ocean photochemical and photobiological processes. The general distribution of CDOM in the global ocean is controlled by a balance between production (primarily microbial remineralization of organic matter) and photolysis, with vertical ventilation circulation playing an important role in transporting CDOM to and from intermediate water masses. Significant decadal-scale fluctuations in the abundance of global surface ocean CDOM have been observed using remote sensing, indicating a potentially important role for CDOM in ocean-climate connections through its impact on photochemistry and photobiology.

  13. Global stability of two models with incomplete treatment for tuberculosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Yali; Li Jianquan; Ma Zhien; Liu Luju

    2010-01-01

    Research highlights: → Two tuberculosis models with incomplete treatment. → Intuitive epidemiological interpretations for the basic reproduction numbers. → Global dynamics of the two models. → Strategies to control the spread of tuberculosis. - Abstract: Two tuberculosis (TB) models with incomplete treatment are investigated. It is assumed that the treated individuals may enter either the latent compartment due to the remainder of Mycobacterium tuberculosis or the infectious compartment due to the treatment failure. The first model is a simple one with treatment failure reflecting the current TB treatment fact in most countries with high tuberculosis incidence. The second model refines the simple one by dividing the latent compartment into slow and fast two kinds of progresses. This improvement can be used to describe the case that the latent TB individuals have been infected with some other chronic diseases (such as HIV and diabetes) which may weaken the immunity of infected individuals and shorten the latent period of TB. Both of the two models assume mass action incidence and exponential distributions of transfers between different compartments. The basic reproduction numbers of the two models are derived and their intuitive epidemiological interpretations are given. The global dynamics of two models are all proved by using Liapunov functions. At last, some strategies to control the spread of tuberculosis are discussed.

  14. Modeling urbanization patterns at a global scale with generative adversarial networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, A. T.; Strano, E.; Gonzalez, M.

    2017-12-01

    Current demographic projections show that, in the next 30 years, global population growth will mostly take place in developing countries. Coupled with a decrease in density, such population growth could potentially double the land occupied by settlements by 2050. The lack of reliable and globally consistent socio-demographic data, coupled with the limited predictive performance underlying traditional urban spatial explicit models, call for developing better predictive methods, calibrated using a globally-consistent dataset. Thus, richer models of the spatial interplay between the urban built-up land, population distribution and energy use are central to the discussion around the expansion and development of cities, and their impact on the environment in the context of a changing climate. In this talk we discuss methods for, and present an analysis of, urban form, defined as the spatial distribution of macroeconomic quantities that characterize a city, using modern machine learning methods and best-available remote-sensing data for the world's largest 25,000 cities. We first show that these cities may be described by a small set of patterns in radial building density, nighttime luminosity, and population density, which highlight, to first order, differences in development and land use across the world. We observe significant, spatially-dependent variance around these typical patterns, which would be difficult to model using traditional statistical methods. We take a first step in addressing this challenge by developing CityGAN, a conditional generative adversarial network model for simulating realistic urban forms. To guide learning and measure the quality of the simulated synthetic cities, we develop a specialized loss function for GAN optimization that incorporates standard spatial statistics used by urban analysis experts. Our framework is a stark departure from both the standard physics-based approaches in the literature (that view urban forms as fractals with a

  15. Parton distribution functions with QED corrections in the valon model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mottaghizadeh, Marzieh; Taghavi Shahri, Fatemeh; Eslami, Parvin

    2017-10-01

    The parton distribution functions (PDFs) with QED corrections are obtained by solving the QCD ⊗QED DGLAP evolution equations in the framework of the "valon" model at the next-to-leading-order QCD and the leading-order QED approximations. Our results for the PDFs with QED corrections in this phenomenological model are in good agreement with the newly related CT14QED global fits code [Phys. Rev. D 93, 114015 (2016), 10.1103/PhysRevD.93.114015] and APFEL (NNPDF2.3QED) program [Comput. Phys. Commun. 185, 1647 (2014), 10.1016/j.cpc.2014.03.007] in a wide range of x =[10-5,1 ] and Q2=[0.283 ,108] GeV2 . The model calculations agree rather well with those codes. In the latter, we proposed a new method for studying the symmetry breaking of the sea quark distribution functions inside the proton.

  16. Global Atmosphere Watch Workshop on Measurement-Model ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme coordinates high-quality observations of atmospheric composition from global to local scales with the aim to drive high-quality and high-impact science while co-producing a new generation of products and services. In line with this vision, GAW’s Scientific Advisory Group for Total Atmospheric Deposition (SAG-TAD) has a mandate to produce global maps of wet, dry and total atmospheric deposition for important atmospheric chemicals to enable research into biogeochemical cycles and assessments of ecosystem and human health effects. The most suitable scientific approach for this activity is the emerging technique of measurement-model fusion for total atmospheric deposition. This technique requires global-scale measurements of atmospheric trace gases, particles, precipitation composition and precipitation depth, as well as predictions of the same from global/regional chemical transport models. The fusion of measurement and model results requires data assimilation and mapping techniques. The objective of the GAW Workshop on Measurement-Model Fusion for Global Total Atmospheric Deposition (MMF-GTAD), an initiative of the SAG-TAD, was to review the state-of-the-science and explore the feasibility and methodology of producing, on a routine retrospective basis, global maps of atmospheric gas and aerosol concentrations as well as wet, dry and total deposition via measurement-model

  17. A global off-line model of size-resolved aerosol microphysics: I. Model development and prediction of aerosol properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Spracklen

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available A GLObal Model of Aerosol Processes (GLOMAP has been developed as an extension to the TOMCAT 3-D Eulerian off-line chemical transport model. GLOMAP simulates the evolution of the global aerosol size distribution using a sectional two-moment scheme and includes the processes of aerosol nucleation, condensation, growth, coagulation, wet and dry deposition and cloud processing. We describe the results of a global simulation of sulfuric acid and sea spray aerosol. The model captures features of the aerosol size distribution that are well established from observations in the marine boundary layer and free troposphere. Modelled condensation nuclei (CN>3nm vary between about 250–500 cm-3 in remote marine boundary layer regions and are generally in good agreement with observations. Modelled continental CN concentrations are lower than observed, which may be due to lack of some primary aerosol sources or the neglect of nucleation mechanisms other than binary homogeneous nucleation of sulfuric acid-water particles. Remote marine CN concentrations increase to around 2000–10 000 cm (at standard temperature and pressure in the upper troposphere, which agrees with typical observed vertical profiles. Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN at 0.2% supersaturation vary between about 1000 cm-3 in polluted regions and between 10 and 500 cm-3 in the remote marine boundary layer. New particle formation through sulfuric acid-water binary nucleation occurs predominantly in the upper troposphere, but the model results show that these particles contribute greatly to aerosol concentrations in the marine boundary layer. For this sulfur-sea salt system it is estimated that sea spray emissions account for only ~10% of CCN in the tropical marine boundary layer, but between 20 and 75% in the mid-latitude Southern Ocean. In a run with only natural sulfate and sea salt emissions the global mean surface CN concentration is more than 60% of that from a run with 1985 anthropogenic

  18. Effects of Individual Success on Globally Distributed Team Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Yılmaz, Onur

    2013-01-01

    Necessity of different competencies with high level of knowledge makes it inevitable that software development is a team work. With the today's technology, teams can communicate both synchronously and asynchronously using different online collaboration tools throughout the world. Researches indicate that there are many factors that affect the team success and in this paper, effect of individual success on globally distributed team performance will be analyzed. Student team projects undertaken...

  19. Challenges in Modeling of the Global Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janjic, Zavisa; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Vasic, Ratko; Black, Tom

    2015-04-01

    The massively parallel computer architectures require that some widely adopted modeling paradigms be reconsidered in order to utilize more productively the power of parallel processing. For high computational efficiency with distributed memory, each core should work on a small subdomain of the full integration domain, and exchange only few rows of halo data with the neighbouring cores. However, the described scenario implies that the discretization used in the model is horizontally local. The spherical geometry further complicates the problem. Various grid topologies will be discussed and examples will be shown. The latitude-longitude grid with local in space and explicit in time differencing has been an early choice and remained in use ever since. The problem with this method is that the grid size in the longitudinal direction tends to zero as the poles are approached. So, in addition to having unnecessarily high resolution near the poles, polar filtering has to be applied in order to use a time step of decent size. However, the polar filtering requires transpositions involving extra communications. The spectral transform method and the semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian schemes opened the way for a wide application of the spectral representation. With some variations, these techniques are used in most major centers. However, the horizontal non-locality is inherent to the spectral representation and implicit time differencing, which inhibits scaling on a large number of cores. In this respect the lat-lon grid with a fast Fourier transform represents a significant step in the right direction, particularly at high resolutions where the Legendre transforms become increasingly expensive. Other grids with reduced variability of grid distances such as various versions of the cubed sphere and the hexagonal/pentagonal ("soccer ball") grids were proposed almost fifty years ago. However, on these grids, large-scale (wavenumber 4 and 5) fictitious solutions ("grid imprinting

  20. Modeling of the Earth's gravity field using the New Global Earth Model (NEWGEM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yeong E.; Braswell, W. Danny

    1989-01-01

    Traditionally, the global gravity field was described by representations based on the spherical harmonics (SH) expansion of the geopotential. The SH expansion coefficients were determined by fitting the Earth's gravity data as measured by many different methods including the use of artificial satellites. As gravity data have accumulated with increasingly better accuracies, more of the higher order SH expansion coefficients were determined. The SH representation is useful for describing the gravity field exterior to the Earth but is theoretically invalid on the Earth's surface and in the Earth's interior. A new global Earth model (NEWGEM) (KIM, 1987 and 1988a) was recently proposed to provide a unified description of the Earth's gravity field inside, on, and outside the Earth's surface using the Earth's mass density profile as deduced from seismic studies, elevation and bathymetric information, and local and global gravity data. Using NEWGEM, it is possible to determine the constraints on the mass distribution of the Earth imposed by gravity, topography, and seismic data. NEWGEM is useful in investigating a variety of geophysical phenomena. It is currently being utilized to develop a geophysical interpretation of Kaula's rule. The zeroth order NEWGEM is being used to numerically integrate spherical harmonic expansion coefficients and simultaneously determine the contribution of each layer in the model to a given coefficient. The numerically determined SH expansion coefficients are also being used to test the validity of SH expansions at the surface of the Earth by comparing the resulting SH expansion gravity model with exact calculations of the gravity at the Earth's surface.

  1. Generation of real-time global ionospheric map based on the global GNSS stations with only a sparse distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zishen; Wang, Ningbo; Li, Min; Zhou, Kai; Yuan, Yunbin; Yuan, Hong

    2017-04-01

    The Earth's ionosphere is part of the atmosphere stretching from an altitude of about 50 km to more than 1000 km. When the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signal emitted from a satellite travels through the ionosphere before reaches a receiver on or near the Earth surface, the GNSS signal is significantly delayed by the ionosphere and this delay bas been considered as one of the major errors in the GNSS measurement. The real-time global ionospheric map calculated from the real-time data obtained by global stations is an essential method for mitigating the ionospheric delay for real-time positioning. The generation of an accurate global ionospheric map generally depends on the global stations with dense distribution; however, the number of global stations that can produce the real-time data is very limited at present, which results that the generation of global ionospheric map with a high accuracy is very different when only using the current stations with real-time data. In view of this, a new approach is proposed for calculating the real-time global ionospheric map only based on the current stations with real-time data. This new approach is developed on the basis of the post-processing and the one-day predicted global ionospheric map from our research group. The performance of the proposed approach is tested by the current global stations with the real-time data and the test results are also compared with the IGS-released final global ionospheric map products.

  2. Intercomparison of modal and sectional aerosol microphysics representations within the same 3-D global chemical transport model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. W. Mann

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In the most advanced aerosol-climate models it is common to represent the aerosol particle size distribution in terms of several log-normal modes. This approach, motivated by computational efficiency, makes assumptions about the shape of the particle distribution that may not always capture the properties of global aerosol. Here, a global modal aerosol microphysics module (GLOMAP-mode is evaluated and improved by comparing against a sectional version (GLOMAP-bin and observations in the same 3-D global offline chemistry transport model. With both schemes, the model captures the main features of the global particle size distribution, with sub-micron aerosol approximately unimodal in continental regions and bi-modal in marine regions. Initial bin-mode comparisons showed that the current values for two size distribution parameter settings in the modal scheme (mode widths and inter-modal separation sizes resulted in clear biases compared to the sectional scheme. By adjusting these parameters in the modal scheme, much better agreement is achieved against the bin scheme and observations. Annual mean surface-level mass of sulphate, sea-salt, black carbon (BC and organic carbon (OC are within 25% in the two schemes in nearly all regions. Surface level concentrations of condensation nuclei (CN, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN, surface area density and condensation sink also compare within 25% in most regions. However, marine CCN concentrations between 30° N and 30° S are systematically 25–60% higher in the modal model, which we attribute to differences in size-resolved particle growth or cloud-processing. Larger differences also exist in regions or seasons dominated by biomass burning and in free-troposphere and high-latitude regions. Indeed, in the free-troposphere, GLOMAP-mode BC is a factor 2–4 higher than GLOMAP-bin, likely due to differences in size-resolved scavenging. Nevertheless, in most parts of the atmosphere, we conclude that bin

  3. On global and regional spectral evaluation of global geopotential models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ustun, A; Abbak, R A

    2010-01-01

    Spectral evaluation of global geopotential models (GGMs) is necessary to recognize the behaviour of gravity signal and its error recorded in spherical harmonic coefficients and associated standard deviations. Results put forward in this wise explain the whole contribution of gravity data in different kinds that represent various sections of the gravity spectrum. This method is more informative than accuracy assessment methods, which use external data such as GPS-levelling. Comparative spectral evaluation for more than one model can be performed both in global and local sense using many spectral tools. The number of GGMs has grown with the increasing number of data collected by the dedicated satellite gravity missions, CHAMP, GRACE and GOCE. This fact makes it necessary to measure the differences between models and to monitor the improvements in the gravity field recovery. In this paper, some of the satellite-only and combined models are examined in different scales, globally and regionally, in order to observe the advances in the modelling of GGMs and their strengths at various expansion degrees for geodetic and geophysical applications. The validation of the published errors of model coefficients is a part of this evaluation. All spectral tools explicitly reveal the superiority of the GRACE-based models when compared against the models that comprise the conventional satellite tracking data. The disagreement between models is large in local/regional areas if data sets are different, as seen from the example of the Turkish territory

  4. Evaluation of global solar radiation models for Shanghai, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yao, Wanxiang; Li, Zhengrong; Wang, Yuyan; Jiang, Fujian; Hu, Lingzhou

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • 108 existing models are compared and analyzed by 42 years meteorological data. • Fitting models based on measured data are established according to 42 years data. • All models are compared by recently 10 years meteorological data. • The results show that polynomial models are the most accurate models. - Abstract: In this paper, 89 existing monthly average daily global solar radiation models and 19 existing daily global solar radiation models are compared and analyzed by 42 years meteorological data. The results show that for existing monthly average daily global solar radiation models, linear models and polynomial models have been able to estimate global solar radiation accurately, and complex equation types cannot obviously improve the precision. Considering direct parameters such as latitude, altitude, solar altitude and sunshine duration can help improve the accuracy of the models, but indirect parameters cannot. For existing daily global solar radiation models, multi-parameter models are more accurate than single-parameter models, polynomial models are more accurate than linear models. Then measured data fitting monthly average daily global solar radiation models (MADGSR models) and daily global solar radiation models (DGSR models) are established according to 42 years meteorological data. Finally, existing models and fitting models based on measured data are comparative analysis by recent 10 years meteorological data, and the results show that polynomial models (MADGSR model 2, DGSR model 2 and Maduekwe model 2) are the most accurate models

  5. Mycobacterium tuberculosis Lineage 4 comprises globally distributed and geographically restricted sublineages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coscolla, Mireia; Liu, Qingyun; Trauner, Andrej; Fenner, Lukas; Rutaihwa, Liliana; Borrell, Sonia; Luo, Tao; Gao, Qian; Kato-Maeda, Midori; Ballif, Marie; Egger, Matthias; Macedo, Rita; Mardassi, Helmi; Moreno, Milagros; Tudo Vilanova, Griselda; Fyfe, Janet; Globan, Maria; Thomas, Jackson; Jamieson, Frances; Guthrie, Jennifer L.; Asante-Poku, Adwoa; Yeboah-Manu, Dorothy; Wampande, Eddie; Ssengooba, Willy; Joloba, Moses; Henry Boom, W.; Basu, Indira; Bower, James; Saraiva, Margarida; Vaconcellos, Sidra E. G.; Suffys, Philip; Koch, Anastasia; Wilkinson, Robert; Gail-Bekker, Linda; Malla, Bijaya; Ley, Serej D.; Beck, Hans-Peter; de Jong, Bouke C.; Toit, Kadri; Sanchez-Padilla, Elisabeth; Bonnet, Maryline; Gil-Brusola, Ana; Frank, Matthias; Penlap Beng, Veronique N.; Eisenach, Kathleen; Alani, Issam; Wangui Ndung’u, Perpetual; Revathi, Gunturu; Gehre, Florian; Akter, Suriya; Ntoumi, Francine; Stewart-Isherwood, Lynsey; Ntinginya, Nyanda E.; Rachow, Andrea; Hoelscher, Michael; Cirillo, Daniela Maria; Skenders, Girts; Hoffner, Sven; Bakonyte, Daiva; Stakenas, Petras; Diel, Roland; Crudu, Valeriu; Moldovan, Olga; Al-Hajoj, Sahal; Otero, Larissa; Barletta, Francesca; Jane Carter, E.; Diero, Lameck; Supply, Philip; Comas, Iñaki; Niemann, Stefan; Gagneux, Sebastien

    2016-01-01

    Generalist and specialist species differ in the breadth of their ecological niche. Little is known about the niche width of obligate human pathogens. Here we analyzed a global collection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Lineage 4 clinical isolates, the most geographically widespread cause of human tuberculosis. We show that Lineage 4 comprises globally distributed and geographically restricted sublineages, suggesting a distinction between generalists and specialists. Population genomic analyses showed that while the majority of human T cell epitopes were conserved in all sublineages, the proportion of variable epitopes was higher in generalists. Our data further support a European origin for the most common generalist sublineage. Hence, the global success of Lineage 4 reflects distinct strategies adopted by different sublineages and the influence of human migration. PMID:27798628

  6. Evaluation of Global Photosynthesis and BVOC Emission Covariance with Climate in NASA ModelE2-Y

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, N.

    2012-12-01

    Terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP), a measure of the total amount of CO2 removed from the atmosphere every year to fuel photosynthesis, is the largest global carbon flux. GPP is vital for human welfare as the basis for food and fiber, and provides the crucial ecosystem service of reducing the accumulation of fossil fuel CO2 in the atmosphere. Land plants emit a significant fraction of the assimilated carbon back to the atmosphere in the form of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). Isoprene is the dominant BVOC emission with an estimated global source of 200-660 TgC/yr. Global monoterpene emission estimates range from 30-130 TgC/yr. BVOC photochemical oxidation exerts a profound impact on the distribution and variability of the short-lived climate forcers: ozone, biogenic secondary organic aerosol and methane. Here, we apply multiple observational datasets from a suite of platforms to evaluate an updated global chemistry-climate model that is coupled to a new vegetation biophysics scheme incorporating photosynthesis-dependent BVOC emissions (NASA ModelE2-Y). A fixed vegetation structure dataset based on 8 plant functional types and prescribed phenology including crop planting and harvesting gives GPP of 128 PgC/yr and a global isoprene source of 200TgC/yr. The model GPP captures 85% of the annual average zonal mean variability in a FLUXNET-derived global dataset that was generated by data orientated diagnostic upscaling. We assess model BVOC emission climatology against a comprehensive database of campaign-average above canopy flux measurements and surface concentrations of isoprene and monoterpene collected between 1995-2010 across a wide range of ecosystem types, regions and seasons (> 25 flux estimates; > 22 surface concentration values). We evaluate the diurnal, seasonal and interannual integrity of the model BVOC variability against 9 sites for isoprene and 4 sites for monoterpene. The model captures ~60% of the variability in the time

  7. Accuracy assessment of the global TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model with GPS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessel, Birgit; Huber, Martin; Wohlfart, Christian; Marschalk, Ursula; Kosmann, Detlev; Roth, Achim

    2018-05-01

    The primary goal of the German TanDEM-X mission is the generation of a highly accurate and global Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with global accuracies of at least 10 m absolute height error (linear 90% error). The global TanDEM-X DEM acquired with single-pass SAR interferometry was finished in September 2016. This paper provides a unique accuracy assessment of the final TanDEM-X global DEM using two different GPS point reference data sets, which are distributed across all continents, to fully characterize the absolute height error. Firstly, the absolute vertical accuracy is examined by about three million globally distributed kinematic GPS (KGPS) points derived from 19 KGPS tracks covering a total length of about 66,000 km. Secondly, a comparison is performed with more than 23,000 "GPS on Bench Marks" (GPS-on-BM) points provided by the US National Geodetic Survey (NGS) scattered across 14 different land cover types of the US National Land Cover Data base (NLCD). Both GPS comparisons prove an absolute vertical mean error of TanDEM-X DEM smaller than ±0.20 m, a Root Means Square Error (RMSE) smaller than 1.4 m and an excellent absolute 90% linear height error below 2 m. The RMSE values are sensitive to land cover types. For low vegetation the RMSE is ±1.1 m, whereas it is slightly higher for developed areas (±1.4 m) and for forests (±1.8 m). This validation confirms an outstanding absolute height error at 90% confidence level of the global TanDEM-X DEM outperforming the requirement by a factor of five. Due to its extensive and globally distributed reference data sets, this study is of considerable interests for scientific and commercial applications.

  8. Modeling the Heterogeneous Effects of GHG Mitigation Policies on Global Agriculture and Forestry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golub, A.; Henderson, B.; Hertel, T. W.; Rose, S. K.; Sohngen, B.

    2010-12-01

    Agriculture and forestry are envisioned as potentially key sectors for climate change mitigation policy, yet the depth of analysis of mitigation options and their economic consequences remains remarkably shallow in comparison to that for industrial mitigation. Farming and land use change - much of it induced by agriculture -account for one-third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Any serious attempt to curtail these emissions will involve changes in the way farming is conducted, as well as placing limits on agricultural expansion into areas currently under more carbon-intensive land cover. However, agriculture and forestry are extremely heterogeneous, both in the technology and intensity of production, as well as in the GHG emissions intensity of these activities. And these differences, in turn, give rise to significant changes in the distribution of agricultural production, trade and consumption in the wake of mitigation policies. This paper assesses such distributional impacts via a global economic analysis undertaken with a modified version of the GTAP model. The paper builds on a global general equilibrium GTAP-AEZ-GHG model (Golub et al., 2009). This is a unified modeling framework that links the agricultural, forestry, food processing and other sectors through land, and other factor markets and international trade, and incorporates different land-types, land uses and related CO2 and non-CO2 GHG emissions and sequestration. The economic data underlying this work is the global GTAP data base aggregated up to 19 regions and 29 sectors. The model incorporates mitigation cost curves for different regions and sectors based on information from the US-EPA. The forestry component of the model is calibrated to the results of the state of the art partial equilibrium global forestry model of Sohngen and Mendelson (2007). Forest carbon sequestration at both the extensive and intensive margins are modeled separately to better isolate land competition between

  9. Competing With the Use of Business Model innovation - an Exploratory Case Study of the Journey of Born Global Firms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marlene Johansson

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this article is to investigate how business models are used by born global firms to act upon new business opportunities and how they manage business model innovation over time to prosper and grow. Design/Methodology: The study is based on three exploratory case studies of born global firms in mobile communication, financial services and digital music distribution. Findings: Three interrelated capabilities to manage business model innovation are articulated in the context of born global firms; sensing capabilities, entrepreneurial capabilities and relational capabilities and four propositions are formulated. We find that business model innovations are used as a tool by maturing born global firms to navigate the value chains and achieve international growth. We further propose that born global need the capabilities to balance different business model designs simultaneously and to manage its business model innovation in a timely manner. Originality: This article contributes to both the business model literature and research of international entrepreneurship. By putting business model research into the dynamic context of rapidly internationalizing born global firms, we contribute to the field of business model research with findings of how business models are used in the internationalization processes. Certain capabilities are needed to manage business model innovation for born global firms to dynamically use business models as a tool in the international growth overtime.

  10. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

    2012-09-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

  11. GLOBAL RANDOM WALK SIMULATIONS FOR SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF PASSIVE TRANSPORT MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae Suciu

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The Global Random Walk algorithm (GRW performs a simultaneoustracking on a fixed grid of huge numbers of particles at costscomparable to those of a single-trajectory simulation by the traditional Particle Tracking (PT approach. Statistical ensembles of GRW simulations of a typical advection-dispersion process in groundwater systems with randomly distributed spatial parameters are used to obtain reliable estimations of the input parameters for the upscaled transport model and of their correlations, input-output correlations, as well as full probability distributions of the input and output parameters.

  12. Assessment of Global Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) using new satellite SST data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ascione Kenov, Isabella; Sykes, Peter; Fiedler, Emma; McConnell, Niall; Ryan, Andrew; Maksymczuk, Jan

    2016-04-01

    There is an increased demand for accurate ocean weather information for applications in the field of marine safety and navigation, water quality, offshore commercial operations, monitoring of oil spills and pollutants, among others. The Met Office, UK, provides ocean forecasts to customers from governmental, commercial and ecological sectors using the Global Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM), an operational modelling system which covers the global ocean and runs daily, using the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) ocean model with horizontal resolution of 1/4° and 75 vertical levels. The system assimilates salinity and temperature profiles, sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH), and sea ice concentration observations on a daily basis. In this study, the FOAM system is updated to assimilate Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) and the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) SST data. Model results from one month trials are assessed against observations using verification tools which provide a quantitative description of model performance and error, based on statistical metrics, including mean error, root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient, and Taylor diagrams. A series of hindcast experiments is used to run the FOAM system with AMSR2 and SEVIRI SST data, using a control run for comparison. Results show that all trials perform well on the global ocean and that largest SST mean errors were found in the Southern hemisphere. The geographic distribution of the model error for SST and temperature profiles are discussed using statistical metrics evaluated over sub-regions of the global ocean.

  13. Process-based modelling of phosphorus transformations and retention in global rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilmin, Lauriane; Mogollon, Jose; Beusen, Arthur; Bouwman, Lex

    2016-04-01

    Phosphorus (P) plays a major role in the biogeochemical functioning of aquatic systems. It typically acts as the limiting nutrient for primary productivity in freshwater bodies, and thus the increase in anthropogenic P loads during the XXth century has fuelled the eutrophication of these systems. Total P retention in global rivers has also escalated over this timeframe as demonstrated via a global model that implements the spiralling method at a spatial resolution of 0.5° (IMAGE-GNM, Beusen et al., 2015). Here, we refine this coupled hydrological - nutrient model by including mechanistic biogeochemical interactions that govern the P cycle. Special attention is paid to the representation of particle processes (i.e. particle loading, sedimentation and erosion), which play a major role in P transport and accumulation in aquatic systems. Our preliminary results are compared to measurements of suspended sediments, total P and orthophosphates in selected river basins. Initial model results show that P concentrations are particularly sensitive to particulate load distribution in the river network within a grid cell. This novel modelling approach will eventually allow a better assessment of the amounts of different forms of P (organic P, soluble reactive P, and particulate inorganic P), of P transformation rates and retention in inland waters. References Beusen, A.H.W., Van Beek, L.P.H., Bouwman, A.F., Mogollón, J.M., Middelburg, J.J. 2015. Coupling global models for hydrology and nutrient loading to simulate nitrogen and phosphorus retention in surface water - description of the IMAGE-GNM and analysis of performance. Geosci. Model Dev. 8, 4045-4067

  14. Combined simulation of carbon and water isotopes in a global ocean model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, André; Krandick, Annegret; Gebbie, Jake; Marchal, Olivier; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Losch, Martin; Kurahashi-Nakamura, Takasumi; Tharammal, Thejna

    2013-04-01

    Carbon and water isotopes are included as passive tracers in the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm). The implementation of the carbon isotopes is based on the existing MITgcm carbon cycle component and involves the fractionation processes during photosynthesis and air-sea gas exchange. Special care is given to the use of a real freshwater flux boundary condition in conjunction with the nonlinear free surface of the ocean model. The isotopic content of precipitation and water vapor is obtained from an atmospheric GCM (the NCAR CAM3) and mapped onto the MITgcm grid system, but the kinetic fractionation during evaporation is treated explicitly in the ocean model. In a number of simulations, we test the sensitivity of the carbon isotope distributions to the formulation of fractionation during photosynthesis and compare the results to modern observations of δ13C and Δ14C from GEOSECS, WOCE and CLIVAR. Similarly, we compare the resulting distribution of oxygen isotopes to modern δ18O data from the NASA GISS Global Seawater Oxygen-18 Database. The overall agreement is good, but there are discrepancies in the carbon isotope composition of the surface water and the oxygen isotope composition of the intermediate and deep waters. The combined simulation of carbon and water isotopes in a global ocean model will provide a framework for studying present and past states of ocean circulation such as postulated from deep-sea sediment records.

  15. Simulating the Agulhas system in global ocean models - nesting vs. multi-resolution unstructured meshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biastoch, Arne; Sein, Dmitry; Durgadoo, Jonathan V.; Wang, Qiang; Danilov, Sergey

    2018-01-01

    Many questions in ocean and climate modelling require the combined use of high resolution, global coverage and multi-decadal integration length. For this combination, even modern resources limit the use of traditional structured-mesh grids. Here we compare two approaches: A high-resolution grid nested into a global model at coarser resolution (NEMO with AGRIF) and an unstructured-mesh grid (FESOM) which allows to variably enhance resolution where desired. The Agulhas system around South Africa is used as a testcase, providing an energetic interplay of a strong western boundary current and mesoscale dynamics. Its open setting into the horizontal and global overturning circulations also requires global coverage. Both model configurations simulate a reasonable large-scale circulation. Distribution and temporal variability of the wind-driven circulation are quite comparable due to the same atmospheric forcing. However, the overturning circulation differs, owing each model's ability to represent formation and spreading of deep water masses. In terms of regional, high-resolution dynamics, all elements of the Agulhas system are well represented. Owing to the strong nonlinearity in the system, Agulhas Current transports of both configurations and in comparison with observations differ in strength and temporal variability. Similar decadal trends in Agulhas Current transport and Agulhas leakage are linked to the trends in wind forcing.

  16. Evaluate transport processes in MERRA driven chemical transport models using updated 222Rn emission inventories and global observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, B.; Liu, H.; Crawford, J. H.; Fairlie, T. D.; Chen, G.; Chambers, S. D.; Kang, C. H.; Williams, A. G.; Zhang, K.; Considine, D. B.; Payer Sulprizio, M.; Yantosca, R.

    2015-12-01

    Convective and synoptic processes play a major role in determining the transport and distribution of trace gases and aerosols in the troposphere. The representation of these processes in global models (at ~100-1000 km horizontal resolution) is challenging, because convection is a sub-grid process and needs to be parameterized, while synoptic processes are close to the grid scale. Depending on the parameterization schemes used in climate models, the role of convection in transporting trace gases and aerosols may vary from model to model. 222Rn is a chemically inert and radioactive gas constantly emitted from soil and has a half-life (3.8 days) comparable to synoptic timescale, which makes it an effective tracer for convective and synoptic transport. In this study, we evaluate the convective and synoptic transport in two chemical transport models (GMI and GEOS-Chem), both driven by the NASA's MERRA reanalysis. Considering the uncertainties in 222Rn emissions, we incorporate two more recent scenarios with regionally varying 222Rn emissions into GEOS-Chem/MERRA and compare the simulation results with those using the relatively uniform 222Rn emissions in the standard model. We evaluate the global distribution and seasonality of 222Rn concentrations simulated by the two models against an extended collection of 222Rn observations from 1970s to 2010s. The intercomparison will improve our understanding of the spatial variability in global 222Rn emissions, including the suspected excessive 222Rn emissions in East Asia, and provide useful feedbacks on 222Rn emission models. We will assess 222Rn vertical distributions at different latitudes in the models using observations at surface sites and in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Results will be compared with previous models driven by other meteorological fields (e.g., fvGCM and GEOS4). Since the decay of 222Rn is the source of 210Pb, a useful radionuclide tracer attached to submicron aerosols, improved

  17. Vaginal drug distribution modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katz, David F; Yuan, Andrew; Gao, Yajing

    2015-09-15

    This review presents and applies fundamental mass transport theory describing the diffusion and convection driven mass transport of drugs to the vaginal environment. It considers sources of variability in the predictions of the models. It illustrates use of model predictions of microbicide drug concentration distribution (pharmacokinetics) to gain insights about drug effectiveness in preventing HIV infection (pharmacodynamics). The modeling compares vaginal drug distributions after different gel dosage regimens, and it evaluates consequences of changes in gel viscosity due to aging. It compares vaginal mucosal concentration distributions of drugs delivered by gels vs. intravaginal rings. Finally, the modeling approach is used to compare vaginal drug distributions across species with differing vaginal dimensions. Deterministic models of drug mass transport into and throughout the vaginal environment can provide critical insights about the mechanisms and determinants of such transport. This knowledge, and the methodology that obtains it, can be applied and translated to multiple applications, involving the scientific underpinnings of vaginal drug distribution and the performance evaluation and design of products, and their dosage regimens, that achieve it. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Assessing the Global Risk of Establishment of Cydia pomonella (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) using CLIMEX and MaxEnt Niche Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sunil; Neven, Lisa G; Zhu, Hongyu; Zhang, Runzhi

    2015-08-01

    Accurate assessment of insect pest establishment risk is needed by national plant protection organizations to negotiate international trade of horticultural commodities that can potentially carry the pests and result in inadvertent introductions in the importing countries. We used mechanistic and correlative niche models to quantify and map the global patterns of the potential for establishment of codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.), a major pest of apples, peaches, pears, and other pome and stone fruits, and a quarantine pest in countries where it currently does not occur. The mechanistic model CLIMEX was calibrated using species-specific physiological tolerance thresholds, whereas the correlative model MaxEnt used species occurrences and climatic spatial data. Projected potential distribution from both models conformed well to the current known distribution of codling moth. None of the models predicted suitable environmental conditions in countries located between 20°N and 20°S potentially because of shorter photoperiod, and lack of chilling requirement (Japan where codling moth currently does not occur but where its preferred host species (i.e., apple) is present. Average annual temperature and latitude were the main environmental variables associated with codling moth distribution at global level. The predictive models developed in this study present the global risk of establishment of codling moth, and can be used for monitoring potential introductions of codling moth in different countries and by policy makers and trade negotiators in making science-based decisions. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. NOx from lightning: 1. Global distribution based on lightning physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Colin; Penner, Joyce; Prather, Michael

    1997-03-01

    This paper begins a study on the role of lightning in maintaining the global distribution of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in the troposphere. It presents the first global and seasonal distributions of lightning-produced NOx (LNOx) based on the observed distribution of electrical storms and the physical properties of lightning strokes. We derive a global rate for cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes of 20-30 flashes/s with a mean energy per flash of 6.7×109 J. Intracloud (IC) flashes are more frequent, 50-70 flashes/s but have 10% of the energy of CG strokes and, consequently, produce significantly less NOx. It appears to us that the majority of previous studies have mistakenly assumed that all lightning flashes produce the same amount of NOx, thus overestimating the NOx production by a factor of 3. On the other hand, we feel these same studies have underestimated the energy released in CG flashes, resulting in two negating assumptions. For CG energies we adopt a production rate of 10×1016 molecules NO/J based on the current literature. Using a method to simulate global lightning frequencies from satellite-observed cloud data, we have calculated the LNOx on various spatial (regional, zonal, meridional, and global) and temporal scales (daily, monthly, seasonal, and interannual). Regionally, the production of LNOx is concentrated over tropical continental regions, predominantly in the summer hemisphere. The annual mean production rate is calculated to be 12.2 Tg N/yr, and we believe it extremely unlikely that this number is less than 5 or more than 20 Tg N/yr. Although most of LNOx, is produced in the lowest 5 km by CG lightning, convective mixing in the thunderstorms is likely to deposit large amounts of NOx, in the upper troposphere where it is important in ozone production. On an annual basis, 64% of the LNOx, is produced in the northern hemisphere, implying that the northern hemisphere should have natural ozone levels as much as 2 times greater than the southern hemisphere

  20. USING GEM - GLOBAL ECONOMIC MODEL IN ACHIEVING A GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECAST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Madalina Orac

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The global economic development model has proved to be insufficiently reliable under the new economic crisis. As a result, the entire theoretical construction about the global economy needs rethinking and reorientation. In this context, it is quite clear that only through effective use of specific techniques and tools of economic-mathematical modeling, statistics, regional analysis and economic forecasting it is possible to obtain an overview of the future economy.

  1. Innovation in globally distributed teams: the role of LMX, communication frequency, and member influence on team decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gajendran, Ravi S; Joshi, Aparna

    2012-11-01

    For globally distributed teams charged with innovation, member contributions to the team are crucial for effective performance. Prior research, however, suggests that members of globally distributed teams often feel isolated and excluded from their team's activities and decisions. How can leaders of such teams foster member inclusion in team decisions? Drawing on leader-member exchange (LMX) theory, we propose that for distributed teams, LMX and communication frequency jointly shape member influence on team decisions. Findings from a test of our hypotheses using data from 40 globally distributed teams suggest that LMX can enhance member influence on team decisions when it is sustained through frequent leader-member communication. This joint effect is strengthened as team dispersion increases. At the team level, member influence on team decisions has a positive effect on team innovation. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  2. Scaling of multiplicity distribution in hadron collisions and diffractive-excitation like models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buras, A.J.; Dethlefsen, J.M.; Koba, Z.

    1974-01-01

    Multiplicity distribution of secondary particles in inelastic hadron collision at high energy is studied in the semiclassical impact parameter representation. The scaling function is shown to consist of two factors: one geometrical and the other dynamical. We propose a specific choice of these factors, which describe satisfactorily the elastic scattering, the ratio of elastic to total cross-section and the simple scaling behaviour of multiplicity distribution in p-p collisions. Two versions of diffractive-excitation like models (global and local excitation) are presented as interpretation of our choice of dynamical factor. (author)

  3. A high-resolution global flood hazard model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, Christopher C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Bates, Paul B.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Freer, Jim E.

    2015-09-01

    Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data-scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross-disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ˜90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high-resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ˜1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ˜5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2-D only variant and an independently developed pan-European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next-generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step-change improvement in model performance.

  4. Distribution and habitat of brazilian-pine according to global climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Silveira Wrege

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol. O. Kuntze., also known as brazilian-pine, is a forest native species from Brazil. A. angustifolia is more vulnerable to global climate change, considering it is living in cold and humid mountain regions from southern and southeastern Brazil. Among the native Brazilian forest species, it presents one of the greatest growth and genetic gain potential. It shows excellent wood quality and can still be used in human and animal food, presenting great economic, social and environmental value. In order to determine current distribution of the species and better know its habitat, we worked in the regions representing the borders of natural occurrence, identifying populations and getting trees altitude and geographycal position. Field information along with secondary data from the Environmental Information Center (CRIA were used to map current distribution of brazilian-pine and to project the distribution in the next decades, with the projection of future climate scenarios. Mapping studies of ecological niches in present and future climate scenarios characterizing the environments in which they are living is essential for a better understanding of the risks of species extinction and which mitigating measures could be adequate to reduce the impacts of global climate change on species, thus contributing to the conservation and knowledge of this important species.

  5. Projecting future expansion of invasive species: comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mainali, Kumar P; Warren, Dan L; Dhileepan, Kunjithapatham; McConnachie, Andrew; Strathie, Lorraine; Hassan, Gul; Karki, Debendra; Shrestha, Bharat B; Parmesan, Camille

    2015-12-01

    Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (i) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (ii) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (iii) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species' native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e., into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g., boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post hoc test conducted on a new Parthenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our 'best' model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for parthenium

  6. Towards accounting for dissolved iron speciation in global ocean models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Tagliabue

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The trace metal iron (Fe is now routinely included in state-of-the-art ocean general circulation and biogeochemistry models (OGCBMs because of its key role as a limiting nutrient in regions of the world ocean important for carbon cycling and air-sea CO2 exchange. However, the complexities of the seawater Fe cycle, which impact its speciation and bioavailability, are simplified in such OGCBMs due to gaps in understanding and to avoid high computational costs. In a similar fashion to inorganic carbon speciation, we outline a means by which the complex speciation of Fe can be included in global OGCBMs in a reasonably cost-effective manner. We construct an Fe speciation model based on hypothesised relationships between rate constants and environmental variables (temperature, light, oxygen, pH, salinity and assumptions regarding the binding strengths of Fe complexing organic ligands and test hypotheses regarding their distributions. As a result, we find that the global distribution of different Fe species is tightly controlled by spatio-temporal environmental variability and the distribution of Fe binding ligands. Impacts on bioavailable Fe are highly sensitive to assumptions regarding which Fe species are bioavailable and how those species vary in space and time. When forced by representations of future ocean circulation and climate we find large changes to the speciation of Fe governed by pH mediated changes to redox kinetics. We speculate that these changes may exert selective pressure on phytoplankton Fe uptake strategies in the future ocean. In future work, more information on the sources and sinks of ocean Fe ligands, their bioavailability, the cycling of colloidal Fe species and kinetics of Fe-surface coordination reactions would be invaluable. We hope our modeling approach can provide a means by which new observations of Fe speciation can be tested against hypotheses of the processes present in governing the ocean Fe cycle in an

  7. A two-dimensional model study of past trends in global ozone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wuebbles, D.J.; Kinnison, D.E.

    1988-08-01

    Emissions and atmospheric concentrations of several trace gases important to atmospheric chemistry are known to have increased substantially over recent decades. Solar flux variations and the atmospheric nuclear test series are also likely to have affected stratospheric ozone. In this study, the LLNL two-dimensional chemical-radiative-transport model of the troposphere and stratosphere has been applied to an analysis of the effects that these natural and anthropogenic influences may have had on global ozone concentrations over the last three decades. In general, model determined species distributions and the derived ozone trends agree well with published analyses of land-based and satellite-based observations. Also, the total ozone and ozone distribution trends derived from CFC and other trace gas effects have a different response with latitude than the derived trends from solar flux variations, thus providing a ''signature'' for anthropogenic effects on ozone. 24 refs., 5 figs

  8. The Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost Database: metadata statistics and prospective analysis on future permafrost temperature and active layer depth monitoring site distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biskaborn, B. K.; Lanckman, J.-P.; Lantuit, H.; Elger, K.; Streletskiy, D. A.; Cable, W. L.; Romanovsky, V. E.

    2015-03-01

    The Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) provides the first dynamic database associated with the Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP) and the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) programs, which extensively collect permafrost temperature and active layer thickness data from Arctic, Antarctic and Mountain permafrost regions. The purpose of the database is to establish an "early warning system" for the consequences of climate change in permafrost regions and to provide standardized thermal permafrost data to global models. In this paper we perform statistical analysis of the GTN-P metadata aiming to identify the spatial gaps in the GTN-P site distribution in relation to climate-effective environmental parameters. We describe the concept and structure of the Data Management System in regard to user operability, data transfer and data policy. We outline data sources and data processing including quality control strategies. Assessment of the metadata and data quality reveals 63% metadata completeness at active layer sites and 50% metadata completeness for boreholes. Voronoi Tessellation Analysis on the spatial sample distribution of boreholes and active layer measurement sites quantifies the distribution inhomogeneity and provides potential locations of additional permafrost research sites to improve the representativeness of thermal monitoring across areas underlain by permafrost. The depth distribution of the boreholes reveals that 73% are shallower than 25 m and 27% are deeper, reaching a maximum of 1 km depth. Comparison of the GTN-P site distribution with permafrost zones, soil organic carbon contents and vegetation types exhibits different local to regional monitoring situations on maps. Preferential slope orientation at the sites most likely causes a bias in the temperature monitoring and should be taken into account when using the data for global models. The distribution of GTN-P sites within zones of projected temperature change show a high

  9. Equilibrium of global amphibian species distributions with climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munguí­a, Mariana; Rahbek, Carsten; Rangel, Thiago F.

    2012-01-01

    A common assumption in bioclimatic envelope modeling is that species distributions are in equilibrium with contemporary climate. A number of studies have measured departures from equilibrium in species distributions in particular regions, but such investigations were never carried out for a compl...

  10. Distributed Global Transaction Support for Workflow Management Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vonk, J.; Grefen, P.W.P.J.; Boertjes, E.M.; Apers, Peter M.G.

    Workflow management systems require advanced transaction support to cope with their inherently long-running processes. The recent trend to distribute workflow executions requires an even more advanced transaction support system that is able to handle distribution. This paper presents a model as well

  11. A high resolution global scale groundwater model

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Graaf, Inge; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

    2014-05-01

    As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays a vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater storage provides a large natural buffer against water shortage and sustains flows to rivers and wetlands, supporting ecosystem habitats and biodiversity. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, although it is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle. Thus, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system that allows for the simulation of groundwater head dynamics and lateral flows is essential for GHMs that increasingly run at finer resolution. In this study we present a global groundwater model with a resolution of 5 arc-minutes (approximately 10 km at the equator) using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988). With this global groundwater model we eventually intend to simulate the changes in the groundwater system over time that result from variations in recharge and abstraction. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological maps and datasets (Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2013), combined with our estimate of aquifer thickness for sedimentary basins. We forced the groundwater model with the output from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. For the parameterization, we relied entirely on available global datasets and did not calibrate the model so that it can equally be expanded to data poor environments. Based on our sensitivity analysis, in which we run the model with various hydrogeological parameter settings, we observed that most variance in groundwater

  12. Intercomparison and Evaluation of Aerosol Microphysical Properties among AeroCom Global Models of a Range of Complexity

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Mann, G.W.; Carslaw, K.S.; Reddington, C.L.; Pringle, K.J.; Schulz, M.; Asmi, A.; Spracklen, D.V.; Ridley, D.A.; Woodhouse, M.T.; Lee, L.A.; Zhang, K.; Ghan, S.H.; Easter, R.C.; Liu, X.; Stier, P.; Lee, Y.H.; Adams, P.J.; Tost, H.; Lelieveld, J.; Bauer, S.E.; Tsigaridis, K.; van Noije, T.P.C.; Strunk, A.; Vignati, E.; Bellouin, N.; Dalvi, M.; Johnson, C.E.; Bergman, T.; Kokkola, H.; von Salzen, K.; Yu, F.; Luo, G.; Petzold, A.; Heintzenberger, J.; Clarke, A.; Ogren, J.A.; Gras, J.; Baltensperger, U.; Kaminski, U.; Jennings, S.G.; O'Dowd, C.D.; Harrison, R. M.; Beddows, D.C.S.; Kulmala, M.; Viisanen, Y.; Ulevicius, V.; Mihalopoulos, N.; Ždímal, Vladimír; Fiebich, M.; Hansson, H.-C.; Swietlicki, E.; Henzig, J.S.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 9 (2014), s. 4679-4713 ISSN 1680-7316 Institutional support: RVO:67985858 Keywords : global climate models * aerosol processes * particle size distributions Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 5.053, year: 2014

  13. Spatial Variability in Column CO2 Inferred from High Resolution GEOS-5 Global Model Simulations: Implications for Remote Sensing and Inversions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, L.; Putman, B.; Collatz, J.; Gregg, W.

    2012-01-01

    Column CO2 observations from current and future remote sensing missions represent a major advancement in our understanding of the carbon cycle and are expected to help constrain source and sink distributions. However, data assimilation and inversion methods are challenged by the difference in scale of models and observations. OCO-2 footprints represent an area of several square kilometers while NASA s future ASCENDS lidar mission is likely to have an even smaller footprint. In contrast, the resolution of models used in global inversions are typically hundreds of kilometers wide and often cover areas that include combinations of land, ocean and coastal areas and areas of significant topographic, land cover, and population density variations. To improve understanding of scales of atmospheric CO2 variability and representativeness of satellite observations, we will present results from a global, 10-km simulation of meteorology and atmospheric CO2 distributions performed using NASA s GEOS-5 general circulation model. This resolution, typical of mesoscale atmospheric models, represents an order of magnitude increase in resolution over typical global simulations of atmospheric composition allowing new insight into small scale CO2 variations across a wide range of surface flux and meteorological conditions. The simulation includes high resolution flux datasets provided by NASA s Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project at half degree resolution that have been down-scaled to 10-km using remote sensing datasets. Probability distribution functions are calculated over larger areas more typical of global models (100-400 km) to characterize subgrid-scale variability in these models. Particular emphasis is placed on coastal regions and regions containing megacities and fires to evaluate the ability of coarse resolution models to represent these small scale features. Additionally, model output are sampled using averaging kernels characteristic of OCO-2 and ASCENDS measurement

  14. Global perspectives on ensuring the safety of pharmaceutical products in the distribution process
.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Sohyun; Ji, Eunhee

    2018-01-01

    The distribution of counterfeit or falsified drugs is increasing worldwide. This can contribute to the high burden of disease and cost to society and is of global concern with the worldwide circulation of pharmaceuticals. The preparation and implementation of good distribution practice should be one of the most important aspects of ensuring safe drug circulation and administration. This research aimed to compare and analyze good distribution practice guidelines from advanced countries and international organizations, and to evaluate the status of the current good distribution practice guidelines in the world. Advanced pharmaceutical countries and international organizations, such as the World Health Organization, European Union, Pharmaceutical Inspection Co-operation Scheme, United States of America, Canada, and Australia, which have stable good distribution practice guidelines and public confidence, were included in the analysis. The World Health Organization and European Union guidelines are models for standardized good distribution practice for nations worldwide. The United States of America has a combination of four different series of distribution practices which have a unique structure and detailed content compared to those of other countries. The Canadian guidelines focus on temperature control during storage and transportation. The Australian guidelines apply to both classes of medicinal products and medical devices and need separate standardization. Transparent information about the Internet chain, international cooperation regarding counterfeiting, a high-standard qualification of sellers and customers, and technology to track and trace the whole life cycle of drugs should be the main focus of future good distribution practice guidelines worldwide.
.

  15. Modelling the spectral irradiance distribution in sunny inland locations using an ANN-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres-Ramírez, M.; Elizondo, D.; García-Domingo, B.; Nofuentes, G.; Talavera, D.L.

    2015-01-01

    This work is aimed at verifying that in sunny inland locations artificial intelligence techniques may provide an estimation of the spectral irradiance with adequate accuracy for photovoltaic applications. An ANN (artificial neural network) based method was developed, trained and tested to model the spectral distributions between wavelengths ranging from 350 to 1050 nm. Only commonly available input data such as geographical information regarding location, specific date and time together with horizontal global irradiance and ambient temperature are required. Historical information from a 24-month experimental campaign carried out in Jaén (Spain) provided the necessary data to train and test the ANN tool. A Kohonen self-organized map was used as innovative technique to classify the whole input dataset and build a small and representative training dataset. The shape of the spectral irradiance distribution, the in-plane global irradiance (G T ) and irradiation (H T ) and the APE (average photon energy) values obtained through the ANN method were statistically compared to the experimental ones. In terms of shape distribution fitting, the mean relative deformation error stays below 4.81%. The root mean square percentage error is around 6.89% and 0.45% when estimating G T and APE, respectively. Regarding H T , errors lie below 3.18% in all cases. - Highlights: • ANN-based model to estimate the spectral irradiance distribution in sunny inland locations. • MRDE value stay below 4.81% in spectral irradiance distribution shape fitting. • RMSPE is about 6.89% for the in-plane global irradiance and 0.45% for the average photon energy. • Errors stay below 3.18% for all the months of the year in incident irradiation terms. • Improvement of assessment of the impact of the solar spectrum in the performance of a PV module

  16. Calibration of a simple and a complex model of global marine biogeochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kriest, Iris

    2017-11-01

    The assessment of the ocean biota's role in climate change is often carried out with global biogeochemical ocean models that contain many components and involve a high level of parametric uncertainty. Because many data that relate to tracers included in a model are only sparsely observed, assessment of model skill is often restricted to tracers that can be easily measured and assembled. Examination of the models' fit to climatologies of inorganic tracers, after the models have been spun up to steady state, is a common but computationally expensive procedure to assess model performance and reliability. Using new tools that have become available for global model assessment and calibration in steady state, this paper examines two different model types - a complex seven-component model (MOPS) and a very simple four-component model (RetroMOPS) - for their fit to dissolved quantities. Before comparing the models, a subset of their biogeochemical parameters has been optimised against annual-mean nutrients and oxygen. Both model types fit the observations almost equally well. The simple model contains only two nutrients: oxygen and dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP). Its misfit and large-scale tracer distributions are sensitive to the parameterisation of DOP production and decay. The spatio-temporal decoupling of nitrogen and oxygen, and processes involved in their uptake and release, renders oxygen and nitrate valuable tracers for model calibration. In addition, the non-conservative nature of these tracers (with respect to their upper boundary condition) introduces the global bias (fixed nitrogen and oxygen inventory) as a useful additional constraint on model parameters. Dissolved organic phosphorus at the surface behaves antagonistically to phosphate, and suggests that observations of this tracer - although difficult to measure - may be an important asset for model calibration.

  17. Simulation of global sulfate distribution and the influence of effective cloud drop radii with a coupled photochemistry-sulfur cycle model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelofs, G.J.; Lelieveld, J.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    1998-01-01

    A sulfur cycle model is coupled to a global chemistry-climate model. The simulated surface sulfate concentrations are generally within a factor of 2 of observed concentrations, and display a realistic seasonality for most background locations. However, the model tends to underestimate sulfate and

  18. Pion inclusive momentum distribution at 900 in hydrodynamical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiu, C.B.; Wang, K.H.

    1975-01-01

    It is shown that pion inclusive momentum distributions in pp-collisions at 90 0 up to FNAL and ISR energies can be accounted for by a hydrodynamical model, which has frame independence symmetry and incorporates the evaporation phenomena. Within the solution during its space--time development, the matter system only possesses a local thermal equilibrium but not a global equilibrium. The proper time interval needed to achieve this equilibrium comes out to be comparable to (with c = 1) the longitudinal dimension estimated previously based on considerations of quantum statistical fluctuation. (U.S.)

  19. A Global Stock and Bond Model

    OpenAIRE

    Connor, Gregory

    1996-01-01

    Factor models are now widely used to support asset selection decisions. Global asset allocation, the allocation between stocks versus bonds and among nations, usually relies instead on correlation analysis of international equity and bond indexes. It would be preferable to have a single integrated framework for both asset selection and asset allocation. This framework would require a factor model applicable at an asset or country level, as well as at a global level,...

  20. Using beryllium-7 to assess cross-tropopause transport in global models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Hongyu [National Institute of Aerospace, Hampton, VA (United States); Considine, David B. [NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA (United States); Horowitz, Larry W. [NOAA Geophysical Fluid and Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ (United States); and others

    2016-07-01

    We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) modeling framework to assess the utility of cosmogenic beryllium-7 ({sup 7}Be), a natural aerosol tracer, for evaluating cross-tropopause transport in global models. The GMI chemical transport model (CTM) was used to simulate atmospheric {sup 7}Be distributions using four different meteorological data sets (GEOS1-STRAT DAS, GISS II{sup '} GCM, fvGCM, and GEOS4-DAS), featuring significantly different stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) characteristics. The simulations were compared with the upper troposphere and/or lower stratosphere (UT/LS) {sup 7}Be climatology constructed from ∝ 25 years of aircraft and balloon data, as well as climatological records of surface concentrations and deposition fluxes. Comparison of the fraction of surface air of stratospheric origin estimated from the {sup 7}Be simulations with observationally derived estimates indicates excessive cross-tropopause transport at mid-latitudes in simulations using GEOS1-STRAT and at high latitudes using GISS II{sup '} meteorological data. These simulations also overestimate {sup 7}Be deposition fluxes at mid-latitudes (GEOS1-STRAT) and at high latitudes (GISS II{sup '}), respectively. We show that excessive cross-tropopause transport of {sup 7}Be corresponds to overestimated stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone. Our perspectives on STE in these meteorological fields based on {sup 7}Be simulations are consistent with previous modeling studies of tropospheric ozone using the same meteorological fields. We conclude that the observational constraints for {sup 7}Be and observed {sup 7}Be total deposition fluxes can be used routinely as a first-order assessment of cross-tropopause transport in global models.

  1. Global thermal models of the lithosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cammarano, F.; Guerri, M.

    2017-12-01

    Unraveling the thermal structure of the outermost shell of our planet is key for understanding its evolution. We obtain temperatures from interpretation of global shear-velocity (VS) models. Long-wavelength thermal structure is well determined by seismic models and only slightly affected by compositional effects and uncertainties in mineral-physics properties. Absolute temperatures and gradients with depth, however, are not well constrained. Adding constraints from petrology, heat-flow observations and thermal evolution of oceanic lithosphere help to better estimate absolute temperatures in the top part of the lithosphere. We produce global thermal models of the lithosphere at different spatial resolution, up to spherical-harmonics degree 24, and provide estimated standard deviations. We provide purely seismic thermal (TS) model and hybrid models where temperatures are corrected with steady-state conductive geotherms on continents and cooling model temperatures on oceanic regions. All relevant physical properties, with the exception of thermal conductivity, are based on a self-consistent thermodynamical modelling approach. Our global thermal models also include density and compressional-wave velocities (VP) as obtained either assuming no lateral variations in composition or a simple reference 3-D compositional structure, which takes into account a chemically depleted continental lithosphere. We found that seismically-derived temperatures in continental lithosphere fit well, overall, with continental geotherms, but a large variation in radiogenic heat is required to reconcile them with heat flow (long wavelength) observations. Oceanic shallow lithosphere below mid-oceanic ridges and young oceans is colder than expected, confirming the possible presence of a dehydration boundary around 80 km depth already suggested in previous studies. The global thermal models should serve as the basis to move at a smaller spatial scale, where additional thermo-chemical variations

  2. GlobAl Distribution of GEnetic Traits (GADGET) web server: polygenic trait scores worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chande, Aroon T; Wang, Lu; Rishishwar, Lavanya; Conley, Andrew B; Norris, Emily T; Valderrama-Aguirre, Augusto; Jordan, I King

    2018-05-18

    Human populations from around the world show striking phenotypic variation across a wide variety of traits. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are used to uncover genetic variants that influence the expression of heritable human traits; accordingly, population-specific distributions of GWAS-implicated variants may shed light on the genetic basis of human phenotypic diversity. With this in mind, we developed the GlobAl Distribution of GEnetic Traits web server (GADGET http://gadget.biosci.gatech.edu). The GADGET web server provides users with a dynamic visual platform for exploring the relationship between worldwide genetic diversity and the genetic architecture underlying numerous human phenotypes. GADGET integrates trait-implicated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from GWAS, with population genetic data from the 1000 Genomes Project, to calculate genome-wide polygenic trait scores (PTS) for 818 phenotypes in 2504 individual genomes. Population-specific distributions of PTS are shown for 26 human populations across 5 continental population groups, with traits ordered based on the extent of variation observed among populations. Users of GADGET can also upload custom trait SNP sets to visualize global PTS distributions for their own traits of interest.

  3. Modeling of Global BEAM Structure for Evaluation of MMOD Impacts to Support Development of a Health Monitoring System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyle, Karen H.; Vassilakos, Gregory J.

    2015-01-01

    This report summarizes the initial modeling of the global response of the Bigelow Expandable Activity Module (BEAM) to micrometeorite and orbital debris(MMOD) impacts using a structural, nonlinear, transient dynamic, finite element code. These models complement the on-orbit deployment of the Distributed Impact Detection System (DIDS) to support structural health monitoring studies. Two global models were developed. The first focused exclusively on impacts on the soft-goods (fabric-envelop) portion of BEAM. The second incorporates the bulkhead to support understanding of bulkhead impacts. These models were exercised for random impact locations and responses monitored at the on-orbit sensor locations. The report concludes with areas for future study.

  4. Cross-Cultural Management Learning through Innovative Pedagogy: An Exploratory Study of Globally Distributed Student Teams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartel-Radic, Anne; Moos, J. Chris; Long, Suzanna K.

    2015-01-01

    This article presents an innovative pedagogy based on student participation in globally distributed project teams. The study questions the link between student learning of intercultural competence and the global teaming experience. Data was collected from 115 students participating in 22 virtual intercultural teams. Results revealed that students…

  5. Strong constraint on modelled global carbon uptake using solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacBean, Natasha; Maignan, Fabienne; Bacour, Cédric; Lewis, Philip; Peylin, Philippe; Guanter, Luis; Köhler, Philipp; Gómez-Dans, Jose; Disney, Mathias

    2018-01-31

    Accurate terrestrial biosphere model (TBM) simulations of gross carbon uptake (gross primary productivity - GPP) are essential for reliable future terrestrial carbon sink projections. However, uncertainties in TBM GPP estimates remain. Newly-available satellite-derived sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) data offer a promising direction for addressing this issue by constraining regional-to-global scale modelled GPP. Here, we use monthly 0.5° GOME-2 SIF data from 2007 to 2011 to optimise GPP parameters of the ORCHIDEE TBM. The optimisation reduces GPP magnitude across all vegetation types except C4 plants. Global mean annual GPP therefore decreases from 194 ± 57 PgCyr -1 to 166 ± 10 PgCyr -1 , bringing the model more in line with an up-scaled flux tower estimate of 133 PgCyr -1 . Strongest reductions in GPP are seen in boreal forests: the result is a shift in global GPP distribution, with a ~50% increase in the tropical to boreal productivity ratio. The optimisation resulted in a greater reduction in GPP than similar ORCHIDEE parameter optimisation studies using satellite-derived NDVI from MODIS and eddy covariance measurements of net CO 2 fluxes from the FLUXNET network. Our study shows that SIF data will be instrumental in constraining TBM GPP estimates, with a consequent improvement in global carbon cycle projections.

  6. Factors that influencing the usage of global distribution system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budiasa, I. M.; Suparta, I. K.; Nadra, N. M.

    2018-01-01

    The advancement of Tourism is supported by Information and Communication Technology (ICT) innovation and changes. The use of GDS (Global Distribution System) i.e. Amadeus, Galileo, Sabre, and Worldspan in the tourism industry can increase the availability, frequency and speed of communication among the companies in providing services to potential tourists. This research is to investigate the factors that influence the actual use of GDS in the tourism industry especially travel agents, airlines and hotels in Bali. This research employed a mixed method of quantitative and qualitative approaches. Field surveys were conducted and 80 valid questionnaires were received and analyzed by using SPSS 17.0; descriptive, correlation, factor analysis and regression tests were conducted. The variables used are Perceived Ease of Use and Perceived Usefulness (Technology Acceptance Model); Awareness, Perceived Risk and Communication Channels are examined. This research revealed that Perceived Ease of Use, Perceived Usefulness, Awareness, and Communication Channels influence the Behavioural intention to use GDS, whereas Perceived Risk were found not significant influence the use of GDS. These findings enable travel agent, airline and hotel companies to make provision decision with respect to the actual use of GDS.

  7. Remotely Sensed High-Resolution Global Cloud Dynamics for Predicting Ecosystem and Biodiversity Distributions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam M Wilson

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Cloud cover can influence numerous important ecological processes, including reproduction, growth, survival, and behavior, yet our assessment of its importance at the appropriate spatial scales has remained remarkably limited. If captured over a large extent yet at sufficiently fine spatial grain, cloud cover dynamics may provide key information for delineating a variety of habitat types and predicting species distributions. Here, we develop new near-global, fine-grain (≈1 km monthly cloud frequencies from 15 y of twice-daily Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS satellite images that expose spatiotemporal cloud cover dynamics of previously undocumented global complexity. We demonstrate that cloud cover varies strongly in its geographic heterogeneity and that the direct, observation-based nature of cloud-derived metrics can improve predictions of habitats, ecosystem, and species distributions with reduced spatial autocorrelation compared to commonly used interpolated climate data. These findings support the fundamental role of remote sensing as an effective lens through which to understand and globally monitor the fine-grain spatial variability of key biodiversity and ecosystem properties.

  8. On the spatial and temporal distribution of global thunderstorm cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mezuman, Keren; Price, Colin; Galanti, Eli

    2014-01-01

    Estimates of global thunderstorm activity have been made predominately by direct measurements of lightning discharges around the globe, either by optical measurements from satellites, or using ground-based radio antennas. In this paper we propose a new methodology in which thunderstorm clusters are constructed based on the lightning strokes detected by the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) in the very low frequency range. We find that even with low lightning detection efficiency on a global scale, the spatial and temporal distribution of global thunderstorm cells is well reproduced. This is validated by comparing the global diurnal variations of the thunderstorm cells, and the currents produced by these storms, with the well-known Carnegie Curve, which represents the mean diurnal variability of the global atmospheric electric circuit, driven by thunderstorm activity. While the Carnegie Curve agrees well with our diurnal thunderstorm cluster variations, there is little agreement between the Carnegie Curve and the diurnal variation in the number of lightning strokes detected by the WWLLN. When multiplying the number of clusters we detect by the mean thunderstorm conduction current for land and ocean thunderstorms (Mach et al 2011 J. Geophys. Res. 116 D05201) we get a total average current of about 760 A. Our results show that thunderstorms alone explain more than 90% in the variability of the global electric circuit. However, while it has been previously shown that 90% of the global lightning occurs over continental landmasses, we show that around 50% of the thunderstorms are over the oceans, and from 00-09UTC there are more thunderstorm cells globally over the oceans than over the continents. Since the detection efficiency of the WWLLN system has increased over time, we estimate that the lower bound of the mean number of global thunderstorm cells in 2012 was around 1050 per hour, varying from around 840 at 03UTC to 1150 storms at 19UTC. (letter)

  9. The status and challenge of global fire modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

    2016-06-01

    Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

  10. Online Simulations of Global Aerosol Distributions in the NASA GEOS-4 Model and Comparisons to Satellite and Ground-Based Aerosol Optical Depth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colarco, Peter; daSilva, Arlindo; Chin, Mian; Diehl, Thomas

    2010-01-01

    We have implemented a module for tropospheric aerosols (GO CART) online in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 model and simulated global aerosol distributions for the period 2000-2006. The new online system offers several advantages over the previous offline version, providing a platform for aerosol data assimilation, aerosol-chemistry-climate interaction studies, and short-range chemical weather forecasting and climate prediction. We introduce as well a methodology for sampling model output consistently with satellite aerosol optical thickness (AOT) retrievals to facilitate model-satellite comparison. Our results are similar to the offline GOCART model and to the models participating in the AeroCom intercomparison. The simulated AOT has similar seasonal and regional variability and magnitude to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer observations. The model AOT and Angstrom parameter are consistently low relative to AERONET in biomass-burning-dominated regions, where emissions appear to be underestimated, consistent with the results of the offline GOCART model. In contrast, the model AOT is biased high in sulfate-dominated regions of North America and Europe. Our model-satellite comparison methodology shows that diurnal variability in aerosol loading is unimportant compared to sampling the model where the satellite has cloud-free observations, particularly in sulfate-dominated regions. Simulated sea salt burden and optical thickness are high by a factor of 2-3 relative to other models, and agreement between model and satellite over-ocean AOT is improved by reducing the model sea salt burden by a factor of 2. The best agreement in both AOT magnitude and variability occurs immediately downwind of the Saharan dust plume.

  11. Possible impacts of global warming on tundra and boreal forest ecosystems - comparison of some biogeochemical models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ploechl, M.; Cramer, W.

    1995-06-01

    Global warming affects the magnitude of carbon, water and nitrogen fluxes between biosphere and atmosphere as well as the distribution of vegetation types. Biogeochemical models, global as well as patch models, can be used to estimate the differences between the mean values of annual net primary production (NPP) for the present and for future climate scenarios. Both approaches rely on the prescribed pattern of vegetation types. Structural, rule based models can predict such patterns, provided that vegetation and climate are in equilibrium. The coupling of biogeochemical and structural models gives the opportunity to test the sensitivity of biogeochemical processes not only to climatic change but also to biome shifts. Whether the annual mean NPP of a vegetation type increses or decreases depends strongly on the assumptions about a CO{sub 2} fertilization effect and nitrogen cycling. Results from our coupled model show that, given that direct CO{sub 2} effects are uncertain, (i) average NPP of these northern biomes might decrease under global warming, but (ii) total NPP of the region would increase, due to the northward shift of the taiga biome. (orig.)

  12. The global distribution of thermospheric odd nitrogen for solstice conditions during solar cycle minimum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerard, J.-C.; Roble, R. G.; Rusch, D. W.; Stewart, A. I.

    1984-01-01

    A two-dimensional model of odd nitrogen in the thermosphere and upper mesosphere is described. The global distributions of nitric oxide and atomic nitrogen are calculated for the solstice period for quiet and moderate magnetic activity during the solar minimum period. The effect of thermospheric transport by winds is investigated along with the importance of particle-induced ionization in the auroral zones. The results are compared with rocket and satellite measurements, and the sensitivity of the model to eddy diffusion and neutral winds is investigated. Downward fluxes of NO into the mesosphere are given, and their importance for stratospheric ozone is discussed. The results show that the summer-to-winter pole meridional circulation transports both NO and N(S-4) across the solar terminator into the polar night region where there is a downward vertical transport toward the mesosphere. The model shows that odd nitrogen densities at high winter latitudes are entirely controlled by particle precipitation and transport processes.

  13. Modeling of the Global Water Cycle - Analytical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yongqiang Liu; Roni Avissar

    2005-01-01

    Both numerical and analytical models of coupled atmosphere and its underlying ground components (land, ocean, ice) are useful tools for modeling the global and regional water cycle. Unlike complex three-dimensional climate models, which need very large computing resources and involve a large number of complicated interactions often difficult to interpret, analytical...

  14. Validation of A Global Hydrological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doell, P.; Lehner, B.; Kaspar, F.; Vassolo, S.

    Freshwater availability has been recognized as a global issue, and its consistent quan- tification not only in individual river basins but also at the global scale is required to support the sustainable use of water. The Global Hydrology Model WGHM, which is a submodel of the global water use and availability model WaterGAP 2, computes sur- face runoff, groundwater recharge and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.5. WGHM is based on the best global data sets currently available, including a newly developed drainage direction map and a data set of wetlands, lakes and reservoirs. It calculates both natural and actual discharge by simulating the reduction of river discharge by human water consumption (as computed by the water use submodel of WaterGAP 2). WGHM is calibrated against observed discharge at 724 gauging sta- tions (representing about 50% of the global land area) by adjusting a parameter of the soil water balance. It not only computes the long-term average water resources but also water availability indicators that take into account the interannual and seasonal variability of runoff and discharge. The reliability of the model results is assessed by comparing observed and simulated discharges at the calibration stations and at se- lected other stations. We conclude that reliable results can be obtained for basins of more than 20,000 km2. In particular, the 90% reliable monthly discharge is simu- lated well. However, there is the tendency that semi-arid and arid basins are modeled less satisfactorily than humid ones, which is partially due to neglecting river channel losses and evaporation of runoff from small ephemeral ponds in the model. Also, the hydrology of highly developed basins with large artificial storages, basin transfers and irrigation schemes cannot be simulated well. The seasonality of discharge in snow- dominated basins is overestimated by WGHM, and if the snow-dominated basin is uncalibrated, discharge is likely to be underestimated

  15. Global tropospheric ozone modeling: Quantifying errors due to grid resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, Oliver; Prather, Michael J.

    2006-06-01

    Ozone production in global chemical models is dependent on model resolution because ozone chemistry is inherently nonlinear, the timescales for chemical production are short, and precursors are artificially distributed over the spatial scale of the model grid. In this study we examine the sensitivity of ozone, its precursors, and its production to resolution by running a global chemical transport model at four different resolutions between T21 (5.6° × 5.6°) and T106 (1.1° × 1.1°) and by quantifying the errors in regional and global budgets. The sensitivity to vertical mixing through the parameterization of boundary layer turbulence is also examined. We find less ozone production in the boundary layer at higher resolution, consistent with slower chemical production in polluted emission regions and greater export of precursors. Agreement with ozonesonde and aircraft measurements made during the NASA TRACE-P campaign over the western Pacific in spring 2001 is consistently better at higher resolution. We demonstrate that the numerical errors in transport processes on a given resolution converge geometrically for a tracer at successively higher resolutions. The convergence in ozone production on progressing from T21 to T42, T63, and T106 resolution is likewise monotonic but indicates that there are still large errors at 120 km scales, suggesting that T106 resolution is too coarse to resolve regional ozone production. Diagnosing the ozone production and precursor transport that follow a short pulse of emissions over east Asia in springtime allows us to quantify the impacts of resolution on both regional and global ozone. Production close to continental emission regions is overestimated by 27% at T21 resolution, by 13% at T42 resolution, and by 5% at T106 resolution. However, subsequent ozone production in the free troposphere is not greatly affected. We find that the export of short-lived precursors such as NOx by convection is overestimated at coarse resolution.

  16. The role of aerosols in cloud drop parameterizations and its applications in global climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chuang, C.C.; Penner, J.E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    The characteristics of the cloud drop size distribution near cloud base are initially determined by aerosols that serve as cloud condensation nuclei and the updraft velocity. We have developed parameterizations relating cloud drop number concentration to aerosol number and sulfate mass concentrations and used them in a coupled global aerosol/general circulation model (GCM) to estimate the indirect aerosol forcing. The global aerosol model made use of our detailed emissions inventories for the amount of particulate matter from biomass burning sources and from fossil fuel sources as well as emissions inventories of the gas-phase anthropogenic SO{sub 2}. This work is aimed at validating the coupled model with the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program measurements and assessing the possible magnitude of the aerosol-induced cloud effects on climate.

  17. Forest Distribution on Small Isolated Hills and Implications on Woody Plant Distribution under Threats of Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi-Cheng Liao

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Treelines have been found to be lower in small isolated hilltops, but the specific dynamics behind this unique phenomenon are unknown. This study investigates the distribution patterns of woody plants in Yangmingshan National Park (YMSNP, Northern Taiwan in search of the limitation mechanisms unique to small isolated hills, and to evaluate potential threats under global warming. Forests distributed between 200 to 900 m above sea level (ASL. Remnant forest fragments between 400 and 900 m ASL, have the highest species richness, and should be protected to ensure future forest recovery from the former extensive artificial disturbance. The lower boundary is threatened by urban and agricultural development. The lack of native woody species in these low elevation zones may cause a gap susceptible to invasive species. A consistent forest line at 100 m below mountain tops regardless of elevation suggests a topography-induced instead of an elevation-related limiting mechanism. Therefore, upward-shift of forests, caused by global warming, might be limited at 100 m below hilltops in small isolated hills because of topography-related factors. The spatial range of woody plants along the altitudinal gradient, thus, is likely to become narrower under the combined pressures of global warming, limited elevation, exposure-related stress, and artificial disturbance. Management priorities for forest recovery are suggested to include preservation of remnant forest fragments, increasing forest connectivity, and increasing seedling establishment in the grasslands.

  18. Statistical models of global Langmuir mixing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qing; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Breivik, Øyvind; Webb, Adrean

    2017-05-01

    The effects of Langmuir mixing on the surface ocean mixing may be parameterized by applying an enhancement factor which depends on wave, wind, and ocean state to the turbulent velocity scale in the K-Profile Parameterization. Diagnosing the appropriate enhancement factor online in global climate simulations is readily achieved by coupling with a prognostic wave model, but with significant computational and code development expenses. In this paper, two alternatives that do not require a prognostic wave model, (i) a monthly mean enhancement factor climatology, and (ii) an approximation to the enhancement factor based on the empirical wave spectra, are explored and tested in a global climate model. Both appear to reproduce the Langmuir mixing effects as estimated using a prognostic wave model, with nearly identical and substantial improvements in the simulated mixed layer depth and intermediate water ventilation over control simulations, but significantly less computational cost. Simpler approaches, such as ignoring Langmuir mixing altogether or setting a globally constant Langmuir number, are found to be deficient. Thus, the consequences of Stokes depth and misaligned wind and waves are important.

  19. Multisite-multivariable sensitivity analysis of distributed watershed models: enhancing the perceptions from computationally frugal methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper assesses the impact of different likelihood functions in identifying sensitive parameters of the highly parameterized, spatially distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed model for multiple variables at multiple sites. The global one-factor-at-a-time (OAT) method of Morr...

  20. The global distribution and dynamics of surface soil moisture

    Science.gov (United States)

    McColl, Kaighin A.; Alemohammad, Seyed Hamed; Akbar, Ruzbeh; Konings, Alexandra G.; Yueh, Simon; Entekhabi, Dara

    2017-01-01

    Surface soil moisture has a direct impact on food security, human health and ecosystem function. It also plays a key role in the climate system, and the development and persistence of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods and heatwaves. However, sparse and uneven observations have made it difficult to quantify the global distribution and dynamics of surface soil moisture. Here we introduce a metric of soil moisture memory and use a full year of global observations from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive mission to show that surface soil moisture--a storage believed to make up less than 0.001% of the global freshwater budget by volume, and equivalent to an, on average, 8-mm thin layer of water covering all land surfaces--plays a significant role in the water cycle. Specifically, we find that surface soil moisture retains a median 14% of precipitation falling on land after three days. Furthermore, the retained fraction of the surface soil moisture storage after three days is highest over arid regions, and in regions where drainage to groundwater storage is lowest. We conclude that lower groundwater storage in these regions is due not only to lower precipitation, but also to the complex partitioning of the water cycle by the surface soil moisture storage layer at the land surface.

  1. CT14 intrinsic charm parton distribution functions from CTEQ-TEA global analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Tie-Jiun; Dulat, Sayipjamal; Gao, Jun; Guzzi, Marco; Huston, Joey; Nadolsky, Pavel; Schmidt, Carl; Winter, Jan; Xie, Keping; Yuan, C.-P.

    2018-02-01

    We investigate the possibility of a (sizable) nonperturbative contribution to the charm parton distribution function (PDF) in a nucleon, theoretical issues arising in its interpretation, and its potential impact on LHC scattering processes. The "fitted charm" PDF obtained in various QCD analyses contains a process-dependent component that is partly traced to power-suppressed radiative contributions in DIS and is generally different at the LHC. We discuss separation of the universal component of the nonperturbative charm from the rest of the radiative contributions and estimate its magnitude in the CT14 global QCD analysis at the next-to-next-to leading order in the QCD coupling strength, including the latest experimental data from HERA and the Large Hadron Collider. Models for the nonperturbative charm PDF are examined as a function of the charm quark mass and other parameters. The prospects for testing these models in the associated production of a Z boson and a charm jet at the LHC are studied under realistic assumptions, including effects of the final-state parton showering.

  2. Modeling selective pressures on phytoplankton in the global ocean.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason G Bragg

    Full Text Available Our view of marine microbes is transforming, as culture-independent methods facilitate rapid characterization of microbial diversity. It is difficult to assimilate this information into our understanding of marine microbe ecology and evolution, because their distributions, traits, and genomes are shaped by forces that are complex and dynamic. Here we incorporate diverse forces--physical, biogeochemical, ecological, and mutational--into a global ocean model to study selective pressures on a simple trait in a widely distributed lineage of picophytoplankton: the nitrogen use abilities of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. Some Prochlorococcus ecotypes have lost the ability to use nitrate, whereas their close relatives, marine Synechococcus, typically retain it. We impose mutations for the loss of nitrogen use abilities in modeled picophytoplankton, and ask: in which parts of the ocean are mutants most disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate, and in which parts are they least disadvantaged? Our model predicts that this selective disadvantage is smallest for picophytoplankton that live in tropical regions where Prochlorococcus are abundant in the real ocean. Conversely, the selective disadvantage of losing the ability to use nitrate is larger for modeled picophytoplankton that live at higher latitudes, where Synechococcus are abundant. In regions where we expect Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations to cycle seasonally in the real ocean, we find that model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Prochlorococcus are less disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate than model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Synechococcus. The model predictions for the selective advantage associated with nitrate use are broadly consistent with the distribution of this ability among marine picocyanobacteria, and at finer scales, can provide insights into interactions between temporally varying

  3. Modeling selective pressures on phytoplankton in the global ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bragg, Jason G; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Jahn, Oliver; Follows, Michael J; Chisholm, Sallie W

    2010-03-10

    Our view of marine microbes is transforming, as culture-independent methods facilitate rapid characterization of microbial diversity. It is difficult to assimilate this information into our understanding of marine microbe ecology and evolution, because their distributions, traits, and genomes are shaped by forces that are complex and dynamic. Here we incorporate diverse forces--physical, biogeochemical, ecological, and mutational--into a global ocean model to study selective pressures on a simple trait in a widely distributed lineage of picophytoplankton: the nitrogen use abilities of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. Some Prochlorococcus ecotypes have lost the ability to use nitrate, whereas their close relatives, marine Synechococcus, typically retain it. We impose mutations for the loss of nitrogen use abilities in modeled picophytoplankton, and ask: in which parts of the ocean are mutants most disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate, and in which parts are they least disadvantaged? Our model predicts that this selective disadvantage is smallest for picophytoplankton that live in tropical regions where Prochlorococcus are abundant in the real ocean. Conversely, the selective disadvantage of losing the ability to use nitrate is larger for modeled picophytoplankton that live at higher latitudes, where Synechococcus are abundant. In regions where we expect Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations to cycle seasonally in the real ocean, we find that model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Prochlorococcus are less disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate than model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Synechococcus. The model predictions for the selective advantage associated with nitrate use are broadly consistent with the distribution of this ability among marine picocyanobacteria, and at finer scales, can provide insights into interactions between temporally varying ocean processes and

  4. Global robust stability of neural networks with multiple discrete delays and distributed delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao Ming; Cui Baotong

    2009-01-01

    The problem of global robust stability is investigated for a class of uncertain neural networks with both multiple discrete time-varying delays and distributed time-varying delays. The uncertainties are assumed to be of norm-bounded form and the activation functions are supposed to be bounded and globally Lipschitz continuous. Based on the Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality technique, some robust stability conditions guaranteeing the global robust convergence of the equilibrium point are derived. The proposed LMI-based criteria are computationally efficient as they can be easily checked by using recently developed algorithms in solving LMIs. Two examples are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed results.

  5. Real-time modeling of heat distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamann, Hendrik F.; Li, Hongfei; Yarlanki, Srinivas

    2018-01-02

    Techniques for real-time modeling temperature distributions based on streaming sensor data are provided. In one aspect, a method for creating a three-dimensional temperature distribution model for a room having a floor and a ceiling is provided. The method includes the following steps. A ceiling temperature distribution in the room is determined. A floor temperature distribution in the room is determined. An interpolation between the ceiling temperature distribution and the floor temperature distribution is used to obtain the three-dimensional temperature distribution model for the room.

  6. Local and global stability for Lotka-Volterra systems with distributed delays and instantaneous negative feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faria, Teresa; Oliveira, José J.

    This paper addresses the local and global stability of n-dimensional Lotka-Volterra systems with distributed delays and instantaneous negative feedbacks. Necessary and sufficient conditions for local stability independent of the choice of the delay functions are given, by imposing a weak nondelayed diagonal dominance which cancels the delayed competition effect. The global asymptotic stability of positive equilibria is established under conditions slightly stronger than the ones required for the linear stability. For the case of monotone interactions, however, sharper conditions are presented. This paper generalizes known results for discrete delays to systems with distributed delays. Several applications illustrate the results.

  7. Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varela, M.

    2001-01-01

    The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this trend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy system including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs

  8. Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Bates, Paul; De Groeve, Tom; Muis, Sanne; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Rudari, Roberto; Mark, Trigg; Winsemius, Hessel

    2016-04-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742

  9. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  10. Application of global datasets for hydrological modelling of a remote, snowmelt driven catchment in the Canadian Sub-Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casson, David; Werner, Micha; Weerts, Albrecht; Schellekens, Jaap; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2017-04-01

    Hydrological modelling in the Canadian Sub-Arctic is hindered by the limited spatial and temporal coverage of local meteorological data. Local watershed modelling often relies on data from a sparse network of meteorological stations with a rough density of 3 active stations per 100,000 km2. Global datasets hold great promise for application due to more comprehensive spatial and extended temporal coverage. A key objective of this study is to demonstrate the application of global datasets and data assimilation techniques for hydrological modelling of a data sparse, Sub-Arctic watershed. Application of available datasets and modelling techniques is currently limited in practice due to a lack of local capacity and understanding of available tools. Due to the importance of snow processes in the region, this study also aims to evaluate the performance of global SWE products for snowpack modelling. The Snare Watershed is a 13,300 km2 snowmelt driven sub-basin of the Mackenzie River Basin, Northwest Territories, Canada. The Snare watershed is data sparse in terms of meteorological data, but is well gauged with consistent discharge records since the late 1970s. End of winter snowpack surveys have been conducted every year from 1978-present. The application of global re-analysis datasets from the EU FP7 eartH2Observe project are investigated in this study. Precipitation data are taken from Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) and temperature data from Watch Forcing Data applied to European Reanalysis (ERA)-Interim data (WFDEI). GlobSnow-2 is a global Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) measurement product funded by the European Space Agency (ESA) and is also evaluated over the local watershed. Downscaled precipitation, temperature and potential evaporation datasets are used as forcing data in a distributed version of the HBV model implemented in the WFLOW framework. Results demonstrate the successful application of global datasets in local watershed modelling, but

  11. Highly resolved global distribution of tropospheric NO2 using GOME narrow swath mode data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Beirle

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME allows the retrieval of tropospheric vertical column densities (VCDs of NO2 on a global scale. Regions with enhanced industrial activity can clearly be detected, but the standard spatial resolution of the GOME ground pixels (320x40km2 is insufficient to resolve regional trace gas distributions or individual cities. Every 10 days within the nominal GOME operation, measurements are executed in the so called narrow swath mode with a much better spatial resolution (80x40km2. We use this data (1997-2001 to construct a detailed picture of the mean global tropospheric NO2 distribution. Since - due to the narrow swath - the global coverage of the high resolution observations is rather poor, it has proved to be essential to deseasonalize the single narrow swath mode observations to retrieve adequate mean maps. This is done by using the GOME backscan information. The retrieved high resolution map illustrates the shortcomings of the standard size GOME pixels and reveals an unprecedented wealth of details in the global distribution of tropospheric NO2. Localised spots of enhanced NO2 VCD can be directly associated to cities, heavy industry centers and even large power plants. Thus our result helps to check emission inventories. The small spatial extent of NO2 'hot spots' allows us to estimate an upper limit of the mean lifetime of boundary layer NOx of 17h on a global scale. The long time series of GOME data allows a quantitative comparison of the narrow swath mode data to the nominal resolution. Thus we can analyse the dependency of NO2 VCDs on pixel size. This is important for comparing GOME data to results of new satellite instruments like SCIAMACHY (launched March 2002 on ENVISAT, OMI (launched July 2004 on AURA or GOME II (to be launched 2005 with an improved spatial resolution.

  12. A global model of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles for the terrestrial biosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. P. Wang

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Carbon storage by many terrestrial ecosystems can be limited by nutrients, predominantly nitrogen (N and phosphorus (P, in addition to other environmental constraints, water, light and temperature. However the spatial distribution and the extent of both N and P limitation at the global scale have not been quantified. Here we have developed a global model of carbon (C, nitrogen (N and phosphorus (P cycles for the terrestrial biosphere. Model estimates of steady state C and N pool sizes and major fluxes between plant, litter and soil pools, under present climate conditions, agree well with various independent estimates. The total amount of C in the terrestrial biosphere is 2767 Gt C, and the C fractions in plant, litter and soil organic matter are 19%, 4% and 77%. The total amount of N is 135 Gt N, with about 94% stored in the soil, 5% in the plant live biomass, and 1% in litter. We found that the estimates of total soil P and its partitioning into different pools in soil are quite sensitive to biochemical P mineralization. The total amount of P (plant biomass, litter and soil excluding occluded P in soil is 17 Gt P in the terrestrial biosphere, 33% of which is stored in the soil organic matter if biochemical P mineralization is modelled, or 31 Gt P with 67% in soil organic matter otherwise.

    This model was used to derive the global distribution and uncertainty of N or P limitation on the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems at steady state under present conditions. Our model estimates that the net primary productivity of most tropical evergreen broadleaf forests and tropical savannahs is reduced by about 20% on average by P limitation, and most of the remaining biomes are N limited; N limitation is strongest in high latitude deciduous needle leaf forests, and reduces its net primary productivity by up to 40% under present conditions.

  13. Global identifiability of linear compartmental models--a computer algebra algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Audoly, S; D'Angiò, L; Saccomani, M P; Cobelli, C

    1998-01-01

    A priori global identifiability deals with the uniqueness of the solution for the unknown parameters of a model and is, thus, a prerequisite for parameter estimation of biological dynamic models. Global identifiability is however difficult to test, since it requires solving a system of algebraic nonlinear equations which increases both in nonlinearity degree and number of terms and unknowns with increasing model order. In this paper, a computer algebra tool, GLOBI (GLOBal Identifiability) is presented, which combines the topological transfer function method with the Buchberger algorithm, to test global identifiability of linear compartmental models. GLOBI allows for the automatic testing of a priori global identifiability of general structure compartmental models from general multi input-multi output experiments. Examples of usage of GLOBI to analyze a priori global identifiability of some complex biological compartmental models are provided.

  14. Modelling the distribution of 90Sr and 137Cs in the Mediterranean Sea (MTPII-MATER)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanchez-Cabeza, J.A.; Ortega, M.; Fernandez, V.; Tintore, J.; Monaco, A.

    1999-01-01

    Within the frame of the MTPII-MATER project (MAST), the distribution of 90 Sr and 137 Cs in the Mediterranean Sea was modelled, as these radionuclides are useful tracers of water circulation. The Mediterranean Sea was divided into 81 boxes, corresponding to 21 regions, taking into account water mass circulation, bathymetry and data availability. Transfer rates were obtained from the MOM model run under MEDMEX conditions. The model was run with realistic inputs, which included weapons global fallout, Chernobyl 137 Cs, nuclear industry and river runoff. It was observed that existing data are scarce, especially in the eastern Mediterranean. In general, model predictions agreed well with observations, showing maximum concentrations in surface waters and maxima due to global fallout ( 137 Cs and 90 Sr) and to the Chernobyl accident ( 137 Cs only). (author)

  15. Globalization and Shanghai Model: A Retrospective and Prospective Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linsun Cheng

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Intended to shed light on the debate on the results of globalization and providebetter understanding of the influences of globalization upon China as well as theworld, this article traces the history of Shanghai’s economic globalization over thepast 170 years since 1843 and demonstrates the benefits and problems Shanghaireceived from (or connected to its economic globalization. Divided into threesections (Globalization, de-globalization and re-globalization of Shanghai’s economy;Manufacturing-Oriented vs. Tertiary-oriented—Shanghai’s Double PriorityStrategy of Economic Growth; Free market, state enterprises, and Shanghai’s mixedeconomy the article summarizes and analyzes several characteristics that madeShanghai a unique model in the history of globalization: In adapting and adoptinginevitable economic globalization, Shanghai created its unique model of economicdevelopment—widely embracing economic globalization; placing Shanghai’seconomy on a solid foundation of both strong modern manufacturing and strongtertiary industry (consisting of finance and insurance, real estate, transportations,post and telecommunication, wholesale and retailing; and creating a mixedeconomic structure with hybrid of private and state owned enterprises. TheShanghai model proves that globalization has been an unavoidable trend as scienceand technology have made the world “smaller” and “smaller.” Actively engaging intoeconomic globalization is the only way for Shanghai, as well as many developingcountries, to accelerate its economic growth.

  16. Influence of Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions on the global water isotope distribution in an atmospheric general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Tharammal

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available To understand the validity of δ18O proxy records as indicators of past temperature change, a series of experiments was conducted using an atmospheric general circulation model fitted with water isotope tracers (Community Atmosphere Model version 3.0, IsoCAM. A pre-industrial simulation was performed as the control experiment, as well as a simulation with all the boundary conditions set to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM values. Results from the pre-industrial and LGM simulations were compared to experiments in which the influence of individual boundary conditions (greenhouse gases, ice sheet albedo and topography, sea surface temperature (SST, and orbital parameters were changed each at a time to assess their individual impact. The experiments were designed in order to analyze the spatial variations of the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation (δ18Oprecip in response to individual climate factors. The change in topography (due to the change in land ice cover played a significant role in reducing the surface temperature and δ18Oprecip over North America. Exposed shelf areas and the ice sheet albedo reduced the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and δ18Oprecip further. A global mean cooling of 4.1 °C was simulated with combined LGM boundary conditions compared to the control simulation, which was in agreement with previous experiments using the fully coupled Community Climate System Model (CCSM3. Large reductions in δ18Oprecip over the LGM ice sheets were strongly linked to the temperature decrease over them. The SST and ice sheet topography changes were responsible for most of the changes in the climate and hence the δ18Oprecip distribution among the simulations.

  17. Isocyanic acid in a global chemistry transport model: Tropospheric distribution, budget, and identification of regions with potential health impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Paul. J.; Emmons, Louisa K.; Roberts, James M.; Lamarque, Jean-FrançOis; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Veres, Patrick; Vandenboer, Trevor C.

    2012-05-01

    This study uses a global chemical transport model to estimate the distribution of isocyanic acid (HNCO). HNCO is toxic, and concentrations exceeding 1 ppbv have been suggested to have negative health effects. Based on fire studies, HNCO emissions were scaled to those of hydrogen cyanide (30%), resulting in yearly total emissions of 1.5 Tg for 2008, from both anthropogenic and biomass burning sources. Loss processes included heterogeneous uptake (pH dependent), dry deposition (like formic acid), and reaction with the OH radical (k = 1 × 10-15 molecule-1 cm3 s-1). Annual mean surface HNCO concentrations were highest over parts of China (maximum of 470 pptv), but episodic fire emissions gave much higher levels, exceeding 4 ppbv in tropical Africa and the Amazon, and exceeding 10 ppbv in Southeast Asia and Siberia. This suggests that large biomass burning events could result in deleterious health effects for populations in these regions. For the tropospheric budget, using the model-calculated pH the HNCO lifetime was 37 days, with the split between dry deposition and heterogeneous loss being 95%:5%. Fixing the heterogeneous loss rate at pH = 7 meant that this process dominated, accounting for ˜70% of the total loss, giving a lifetime of 6 days, and resulting in upper tropospheric concentrations that were essentially zero. However, changing the pH does not notably impact the high concentrations found in biomass burning regions. More observational data is needed to evaluate the model, as well as a better representation of the likely underestimated biofuel emissions, which could mean more populations exposed to elevated HNCO concentrations.

  18. New Temperature-based Models for Predicting Global Solar Radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, Gasser E.; Youssef, M. Elsayed; Mohamed, Zahraa E.; Ali, Mohamed A.; Hanafy, Ahmed A.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • New temperature-based models for estimating solar radiation are investigated. • The models are validated against 20-years measured data of global solar radiation. • The new temperature-based model shows the best performance for coastal sites. • The new temperature-based model is more accurate than the sunshine-based models. • The new model is highly applicable with weather temperature forecast techniques. - Abstract: This study presents new ambient-temperature-based models for estimating global solar radiation as alternatives to the widely used sunshine-based models owing to the unavailability of sunshine data at all locations around the world. Seventeen new temperature-based models are established, validated and compared with other three models proposed in the literature (the Annandale, Allen and Goodin models) to estimate the monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. These models are developed using a 20-year measured dataset of global solar radiation for the case study location (Lat. 30°51′N and long. 29°34′E), and then, the general formulae of the newly suggested models are examined for ten different locations around Egypt. Moreover, the local formulae for the models are established and validated for two coastal locations where the general formulae give inaccurate predictions. Mostly common statistical errors are utilized to evaluate the performance of these models and identify the most accurate model. The obtained results show that the local formula for the most accurate new model provides good predictions for global solar radiation at different locations, especially at coastal sites. Moreover, the local and general formulas of the most accurate temperature-based model also perform better than the two most accurate sunshine-based models from the literature. The quick and accurate estimations of the global solar radiation using this approach can be employed in the design and evaluation of performance for

  19. California Wintertime Precipitation in Regional and Global Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caldwell, P M

    2009-04-27

    In this paper, wintertime precipitation from a variety of observational datasets, regional climate models (RCMs), and general circulation models (GCMs) is averaged over the state of California (CA) and compared. Several averaging methodologies are considered and all are found to give similar values when model grid spacing is less than 3{sup o}. This suggests that CA is a reasonable size for regional intercomparisons using modern GCMs. Results show that reanalysis-forced RCMs tend to significantly overpredict CA precipitation. This appears to be due mainly to overprediction of extreme events; RCM precipitation frequency is generally underpredicted. Overprediction is also reflected in wintertime precipitation variability, which tends to be too high for RCMs on both daily and interannual scales. Wintertime precipitation in most (but not all) GCMs is underestimated. This is in contrast to previous studies based on global blended gauge/satellite observations which are shown here to underestimate precipitation relative to higher-resolution gauge-only datasets. Several GCMs provide reasonable daily precipitation distributions, a trait which doesn't seem tied to model resolution. GCM daily and interannual variability is generally underpredicted.

  20. Global off-line evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP flood model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Decharme, B.; Alkama, R.; Faroux, S.; Douville, H. [GAME-CNRM/CNRS - Meteo-France, Toulouse (France); Papa, F. [NOAA-CREST, City College of New York, New York, NY (United States); Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement IRD-LEGOS, Toulouse (France); Prigent, C. [CNRS/Laboratoire d' Etudes du Rayonnement et de la Matiere en Astrophysique, Observatoire de Paris, Paris (France)

    2012-04-15

    This study presents an off-line global evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP hydrological model including a two-way flood scheme. The flood dynamics is indeed described through the daily coupling between the ISBA land surface model and the TRIP river routing model including a prognostic flood reservoir. This reservoir fills when the river height exceeds the critical river bankfull height and vice versa. The flood interacts with the soil hydrology through infiltration and with the overlying atmosphere through precipitation interception and free water surface evaporation. The model is evaluated over a relatively long period (1986-2006) at 1 resolution using the Princeton University 3-hourly atmospheric forcing. Four simulations are performed in order to assess the model sensitivity to the river bankfull height. The evaluation is made against satellite-derived global inundation estimates as well as in situ river discharge observations at 122 gauging stations. First, the results show a reasonable simulation of the global distribution of simulated floodplains when compared to satellite-derived estimates. At basin scale, the comparison reveals some discrepancies, both in terms of climatology and interannual variability, but the results remain acceptable for a simple large-scale model. In addition, the simulated river discharges are improved in term of efficiency scores for more than 50% of the 122 stations and deteriorated for 4% only. Two mechanisms mainly explain this positive impact: an increase in evapotranspiration that limits the annual discharge overestimation found when flooding is not taking into account and a smoothed river peak flow when the floodplain storage is significant. Finally, the sensitivity experiments suggest that the river bankfull depth is potentially tunable according to the river discharge scores to control the accuracy of the simulated flooded areas and its related increase in land surface evaporation. Such a tuning could be relevant at least for climate

  1. Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), with application to hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakovec, O.; Hill, M. C.; Clark, M. P.; Weerts, A. H.; Teuling, A. J.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a hybrid local-global sensitivity analysis method termed the Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), which is used here to identify important and unimportant parameters and evaluate how model parameter importance changes as parameter values change. DELSA uses derivative-based "local" methods to obtain the distribution of parameter sensitivity across the parameter space, which promotes consideration of sensitivity analysis results in the context of simulated dynamics. This work presents DELSA, discusses how it relates to existing methods, and uses two hydrologic test cases to compare its performance with the popular global, variance-based Sobol' method. The first test case is a simple nonlinear reservoir model with two parameters. The second test case involves five alternative "bucket-style" hydrologic models with up to 14 parameters applied to a medium-sized catchment (200 km2) in the Belgian Ardennes. Results show that in both examples, Sobol' and DELSA identify similar important and unimportant parameters, with DELSA enabling more detailed insight at much lower computational cost. For example, in the real-world problem the time delay in runoff is the most important parameter in all models, but DELSA shows that for about 20% of parameter sets it is not important at all and alternative mechanisms and parameters dominate. Moreover, the time delay was identified as important in regions producing poor model fits, whereas other parameters were identified as more important in regions of the parameter space producing better model fits. The ability to understand how parameter importance varies through parameter space is critical to inform decisions about, for example, additional data collection and model development. The ability to perform such analyses with modest computational requirements provides exciting opportunities to evaluate complicated models as well as many alternative models.

  2. The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisz, Mary Susanne; Pottier, Julien; Kissling, W Daniel; Pellissier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan; Damgaard, Christian F; Dormann, Carsten F; Forchhammer, Mads C; Grytnes, John-Arvid; Guisan, Antoine; Heikkinen, Risto K; Høye, Toke T; Kühn, Ingolf; Luoto, Miska; Maiorano, Luigi; Nilsson, Marie-Charlotte; Normand, Signe; Öckinger, Erik; Schmidt, Niels M; Termansen, Mette; Timmermann, Allan; Wardle, David A; Aastrup, Peter; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2013-02-01

    Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km(2) to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally

  3. Deep-sea benthic megafaunal habitat suitability modelling: A global-scale maximum entropy model for xenophyophores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashford, Oliver S.; Davies, Andrew J.; Jones, Daniel O. B.

    2014-12-01

    Xenophyophores are a group of exclusively deep-sea agglutinating rhizarian protozoans, at least some of which are foraminifera. They are an important constituent of the deep-sea megafauna that are sometimes found in sufficient abundance to act as a significant source of habitat structure for meiofaunal and macrofaunal organisms. This study utilised maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) and a high-resolution environmental database to explore the environmental factors controlling the presence of Xenophyophorea and two frequently sampled xenophyophore species that are taxonomically stable: Syringammina fragilissima and Stannophyllum zonarium. These factors were also used to predict the global distribution of each taxon. Areas of high habitat suitability for xenophyophores were highlighted throughout the world's oceans, including in a large number of areas yet to be suitably sampled, but the Northeast and Southeast Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, the Red Sea and deep-water regions of the Malay Archipelago represented particular hotspots. The two species investigated showed more specific habitat requirements when compared to the model encompassing all xenophyophore records, perhaps in part due to the smaller number and relatively more clustered nature of the presence records available for modelling at present. The environmental variables depth, oxygen parameters, nitrate concentration, carbon-chemistry parameters and temperature were of greatest importance in determining xenophyophore distributions, but, somewhat surprisingly, hydrodynamic parameters were consistently shown to have low importance, possibly due to the paucity of well-resolved global hydrodynamic datasets. The results of this study (and others of a similar type) have the potential to guide further sample collection, environmental policy, and spatial planning of marine protected areas and industrial activities that impact the seafloor, particularly those that overlap with aggregations of

  4. Global modelling of secondary organic aerosol in the troposphere: a sensitivity analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Tsigaridis

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available A global 3-dimensional chemistry/transport model able to describe O3, NOx, Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC, sulphur and NH3 chemistry has been extended to simulate the temporal and spatial distribution of primary and secondary carbonaceous aerosols in the troposphere focusing on Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA formation. A number of global simulations have been performed to determine a possible range of annual global SOA production and investigate uncertainties associated with the model results. The studied uncertainties in the SOA budget have been evaluated to be in decreasing importance: the potentially irreversible sticking of the semi-volatile compounds on aerosols, the enthalpy of vaporization of these compounds, the partitioning of SOA on non-carbonaceous aerosols, the conversion of aerosols from hydrophobic to hydrophilic, the emissions of primary carbonaceous aerosols, the chemical fate of the first generation products and finally the activity coefficient of the condensable species. The large uncertainties associated with the emissions of VOC and the adopted simplification of chemistry have not been investigated in this study. Although not all sources of uncertainties have been investigated, according to our calculations, the above factors within the experimental range of variations could result to an overall uncertainty of about a factor of 20 in the global SOA budget. The global annual SOA production from biogenic VOC might range from 2.5 to 44.5 Tg of organic matter per year, whereas that from anthropogenic VOC ranges from 0.05 to 2.62 Tg of organic matter per year. These estimates can be considered as a lower limit, since partitioning on coarse particles like nitrate, dust or sea-salt, together with the partitioning and the dissociation of the semi-volatile products in aerosol water has been neglected. Comparison of model results to observations, where available, shows a better agreement for the upper budget estimates than for the

  5. Global Distribution of Two Fungal Pathogens Threatening Endangered Sea Turtles

    OpenAIRE

    Sarmiento-Ramírez, Jullie M.; Abella-Pérez, Elena; Phillott, Andrea D.; Sim, Jolene; van West, Pieter; Martín, María P.; Marco, Adolfo; Diéguez-Uribeondo, Javier

    2014-01-01

    Nascent fungal infections are currently considered as one of the main threats for biodiversity and ecosystem health, and have driven several animal species into critical risk of extinction. Sea turtles are one of the most endangered groups of animals and only seven species have survived to date. Here, we described two pathogenic species, i.e., Fusarium falciforme and Fusarium keratoplasticum, that are globally distributed in major turtle nesting areas for six sea turtle species and that are i...

  6. The global distribution of fatal pesticide self-poisoning: systematic review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gunnell, David; Eddleston, Michael; Phillips, Michael R

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Evidence is accumulating that pesticide self-poisoning is one of the most commonly used methods of suicide worldwide, but the magnitude of the problem and the global distribution of these deaths is unknown. METHODS: We have systematically reviewed the worldwide literature to estimate......-poisoning worldwide each year, accounting for 30% (range 27% to 37%) of suicides globally. Official data from India probably underestimate the incidence of suicides; applying evidence-based corrections to India's official data, our estimate for world suicides using pesticides increases to 371,594 (range 347......, not the quantity used, that influences the likelihood they will be used in acts of fatal self-harm. CONCLUSION: Pesticide self-poisoning accounts for about one-third of the world's suicides. Epidemiological and toxicological data suggest that many of these deaths might be prevented if (a) the use of pesticides...

  7. From Logical to Distributional Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne Preller

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper relates two variants of semantic models for natural language, logical functional models and compositional distributional vector space models, by transferring the logic and reasoning from the logical to the distributional models. The geometrical operations of quantum logic are reformulated as algebraic operations on vectors. A map from functional models to vector space models makes it possible to compare the meaning of sentences word by word.

  8. Modelling population distribution using remote sensing imagery and location-based data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, J.; Prishchepov, A. V.

    2017-12-01

    Detailed spatial distribution of population density is essential for city studies such as urban planning, environmental pollution and city emergency, even estimate pressure on the environment and human exposure and risks to health. However, most of the researches used census data as the detailed dynamic population distribution are difficult to acquire, especially in microscale research. This research describes a method using remote sensing imagery and location-based data to model population distribution at the function zone level. Firstly, urban functional zones within a city were mapped by high-resolution remote sensing images and POIs. The workflow of functional zones extraction includes five parts: (1) Urban land use classification. (2) Segmenting images in built-up area. (3) Identification of functional segments by POIs. (4) Identification of functional blocks by functional segmentation and weight coefficients. (5) Assessing accuracy by validation points. The result showed as Fig.1. Secondly, we applied ordinary least square and geographically weighted regression to assess spatial nonstationary relationship between light digital number (DN) and population density of sampling points. The two methods were employed to predict the population distribution over the research area. The R²of GWR model were in the order of 0.7 and typically showed significant variations over the region than traditional OLS model. The result showed as Fig.2.Validation with sampling points of population density demonstrated that the result predicted by the GWR model correlated well with light value. The result showed as Fig.3. Results showed: (1) Population density is not linear correlated with light brightness using global model. (2) VIIRS night-time light data could estimate population density integrating functional zones at city level. (3) GWR is a robust model to map population distribution, the adjusted R2 of corresponding GWR models were higher than the optimal OLS models

  9. eWaterCycle: A high resolution global hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2014-05-01

    In 2013, the eWaterCycle project was started, which has the ambitious goal to run a high resolution global hydrological model. Starting point was the PCR-GLOBWB built by Utrecht University. The software behind this model will partially be re-engineered in order to enable to run it in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. The aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km. The idea is also to run the model in real-time and forecasting mode, using data assimilation. An on-demand hydraulic model will be available for detailed flow and flood forecasting in support of navigation and disaster management. The project faces a set of scientific challenges. First, to enable the model to run in a HPC environment, model runs were analyzed to examine on which parts of the program most CPU time was spent. These parts were re-coded in Open MPI to allow for parallel processing. Different parallelization strategies are thinkable. In our case, it was decided to use watershed logic as a first step to distribute the analysis. There is rather limited recent experience with HPC in hydrology and there is much to be learned and adjusted, both on the hydrological modeling side and the computer science side. For example, an interesting early observation was that hydrological models are, due to their localized parameterization, much more memory intensive than models of sister-disciplines such as meteorology and oceanography. Because it would be deadly to have to swap information between CPU and hard drive, memory management becomes crucial. A standard Ensemble Kalman Filter (enKF) would, for example, have excessive memory demands. To circumvent these problems, an alternative to the enKF was developed that produces equivalent results. This presentation shows the most recent results from the model, including a 5km x 5km simulation and a proof of concept for the new data assimilation approach. Finally, some early ideas about financial sustainability of an operational global

  10. A novel assessment of the role of land-use and land-cover change in the global carbon cycle, using a new Dynamic Global Vegetation Model version of the CABLE land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haverd, Vanessa; Smith, Benjamin; Nieradzik, Lars; Briggs, Peter; Canadell, Josep

    2017-04-01

    In recent decades, terrestrial ecosystems have sequestered around 1.2 PgC y-1, an amount equivalent to 20% of fossil-fuel emissions. This land carbon flux is the net result of the impact of changing climate and CO2 on ecosystem productivity (CO2-climate driven land sink ) and deforestation, harvest and secondary forest regrowth (the land-use change (LUC) flux). The future trajectory of the land carbon flux is highly dependent upon the contributions of these processes to the net flux. However their contributions are highly uncertain, in part because the CO2-climate driven land sink and LUC components are often estimated independently, when in fact they are coupled. We provide a novel assessment of global land carbon fluxes (1800-2015) that integrates land-use effects with the effects of changing climate and CO2 on ecosystem productivity. For this, we use a new land-use enabled Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) version of the CABLE land surface model, suitable for use in attributing changes in terrestrial carbon balance, and in predicting changes in vegetation cover and associated effects on land-atmosphere exchange. In this model, land-use-change is driven by prescribed gross land-use transitions and harvest areas, which are converted to changes in land-use area and transfer of carbon between pools (soil, litter, biomass, harvested wood products and cleared wood pools). A novel aspect is the treatment of secondary woody vegetation via the coupling between the land-use module and the POP (Populations Order Physiology) module for woody demography and disturbance-mediated landscape heterogeneity. Land-use transitions to and from secondary forest tiles modify the patch age distribution within secondary-vegetated tiles, in turn affecting biomass accumulation and turnover rates and hence the magnitude of the secondary forest sink. The resulting secondary forest patch age distribution also influences the magnitude of the secondary forest harvest and clearance fluxes

  11. Validation of a Global Hydrodynamic Flood Inundation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Alfieri, L.; Neal, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    In this work we present first validation results for a hyper-resolution global flood inundation model. We use a true hydrodynamic model (LISFLOOD-FP) to simulate flood inundation at 1km resolution globally and then use downscaling algorithms to determine flood extent and depth at 90m spatial resolution. Terrain data are taken from a custom version of the SRTM data set that has been processed specifically for hydrodynamic modelling. Return periods of flood flows along the entire global river network are determined using: (1) empirical relationships between catchment characteristics and index flood magnitude in different hydroclimatic zones derived from global runoff data; and (2) an index flood growth curve, also empirically derived. Bankful return period flow is then used to set channel width and depth, and flood defence impacts are modelled using empirical relationships between GDP, urbanization and defence standard of protection. The results of these simulations are global flood hazard maps for a number of different return period events from 1 in 5 to 1 in 1000 years. We compare these predictions to flood hazard maps developed by national government agencies in the UK and Germany using similar methods but employing detailed local data, and to observed flood extent at a number of sites including St. Louis, USA and Bangkok in Thailand. Results show that global flood hazard models can have considerable skill given careful treatment to overcome errors in the publicly available data that are used as their input.

  12. COLUMBUS. A global gas market model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hecking, Harald; Panke, Timo

    2012-03-15

    A model of the global gas market is presented which in its basic version optimises the future development of production, transport and storage capacities as well as the actual gas flows around the world assuming perfect competition. Besides the transport of natural gas via pipelines also the global market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is modelled using a hub-and-spoke approach. While in the basic version of the model an inelastic demand and a piecewise-linear supply function are used, both can be changed easily, e.g. to a Golombek style production function or a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) demand function. Due to the usage of mixed complementary programming (MCP) the model additionally allows for the simulation of strategic behaviour of different players in the gas market, e.g. the gas producers.

  13. Agent-based model of the effect of globalization on inequality and class mobility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evers, Joep H. M.; Iron, David; Kolokolnikov, Theodore; Rumsey, John

    2017-12-01

    We consider a variant of the Bouchaud-Mézard model for wealth distribution in a society which incorporates the interaction radius between the agents, to model the extent of globalization in a society. The wealth distribution depends critically on the extent of this interaction. When interaction is relatively local, a small cluster of individuals emerges which accumulate most of the society's wealth. In this regime, the society is highly stratified with little or no class mobility. As the interaction is increased, the number of wealthy agents decreases, but the overall inequality rises as the freed-up wealth is transferred to the remaining wealthy agents. However when the interaction exceeds a certain critical threshold, the society becomes highly mobile resulting in a much lower economic inequality (low Gini index). This is consistent with the Kuznets upside-down U shaped inequality curve hypothesis.

  14. The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shengzhi; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Qiang; Xie, Yangyang; Liu, Saiyan; Meng, Erhao; Li, Pei

    2017-07-19

    Projection of future drought is often involved large uncertainties from climate models, emission scenarios as well as drought definitions. In this study, we investigate changes in future droughts in the conterminous United States based on 97 1/8 degree hydro-climate model projections. Instead of focusing on a specific drought type, we investigate changes in meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought as well as the concurrences. Agricultural and hydrological droughts are projected to become more frequent with increase in global mean temperature, while less meteorological drought is expected. Changes in drought intensity scale linearly with global temperature rises under RCP8.5 scenario, indicating the potential feasibility to derive future drought severity given certain global warming amount under this scenario. Changing pattern of concurrent droughts generally follows that of agricultural and hydrological droughts. Under the 1.5 °C warming target as advocated in recent Paris agreement, several hot spot regions experiencing highest droughts are identified. Extreme droughts show similar patterns but with much larger magnitude than the climatology. This study highlights the distinct response of droughts of various types to global warming and the asymmetric impact of global warming on drought distribution resulting in a much stronger influence on extreme drought than on mean drought.

  15. Economic and physical determinants of the global distributions of crop pests and pathogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bebber, Daniel P; Holmes, Timothy; Smith, David; Gurr, Sarah J

    2014-05-01

    Crop pests and pathogens pose a significant and growing threat to food security, but their geographical distributions are poorly understood. We present a global analysis of pest and pathogen distributions, to determine the roles of socioeconomic and biophysical factors in determining pest diversity, controlling for variation in observational capacity among countries. Known distributions of 1901 pests and pathogens were obtained from CABI. Linear models were used to partition the variation in pest species per country amongst predictors. Reported pest numbers increased with per capita gross domestic product (GDP), research expenditure and research capacity, and the influence of economics was greater in micro-organisms than in arthropods. Total crop production and crop diversity were the strongest physical predictors of pest numbers per country, but trade and tourism were insignificant once other factors were controlled. Islands reported more pests than mainland countries, but no latitudinal gradient in species richness was evident. Country wealth is likely to be a strong indicator of observational capacity, not just trade flow, as has been interpreted in invasive species studies. If every country had US levels of per capita GDP, then 205 ± 9 additional pests per country would be reported, suggesting that enhanced investment in pest observations will reveal the hidden threat of crop pests and pathogens. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

  16. Mapping local and global variability in plant trait distributions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Butler, Ethan E.; Datta, Abhirup; Flores-Moreno, Habacuc; Chen, Ming; Wythers, Kirk R.; Fazayeli, Farideh; Banerjee, Arindam; Atkin, Owen K.; Kattge, Jens; Amiaud, Bernard; Blonder, Benjamin; Boenisch, Gerhard; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Brown, Kerry A.; Byun, Chaeho; Campetella, Giandiego; Cerabolini, Bruno E.L.; Cornelissen, Johannes H.C.; Craine, Joseph M.; Craven, Dylan; Vries, De Franciska T.; Díaz, Sandra; Domingues, Tomas F.; Forey, Estelle; González-Melo, Andrés; Gross, Nicolas; Han, Wenxuan; Hattingh, Wesley N.; Hickler, Thomas; Jansen, Steven; Kramer, Koen; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Kurokawa, Hiroko; Laughlin, Daniel C.; Meir, Patrick; Minden, Vanessa; Niinemets, Ülo; Onoda, Yusuke; Peñuelas, Josep; Read, Quentin; Sack, Lawren; Schamp, Brandon; Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A.; Spasojevic, Marko J.; Sosinski, Enio; Thornton, Peter E.; Valladares, Fernando; Bodegom, Van Peter M.; Williams, Mathew; Wirth, Christian; Reich, Peter B.; Schlesinger, William H.

    2017-01-01

    Our ability to understand and predict the response of ecosystems to a changing environment depends on quantifying vegetation functional diversity. However, representing this diversity at the global scale is challenging. Typically, in Earth system models, characterization of plant diversity has been

  17. The redshift distribution of cosmological samples: a forward modeling approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herbel, Jörg; Kacprzak, Tomasz; Amara, Adam; Refregier, Alexandre; Bruderer, Claudio; Nicola, Andrina, E-mail: joerg.herbel@phys.ethz.ch, E-mail: tomasz.kacprzak@phys.ethz.ch, E-mail: adam.amara@phys.ethz.ch, E-mail: alexandre.refregier@phys.ethz.ch, E-mail: claudio.bruderer@phys.ethz.ch, E-mail: andrina.nicola@phys.ethz.ch [Institute for Astronomy, Department of Physics, ETH Zürich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 27, 8093 Zürich (Switzerland)

    2017-08-01

    Determining the redshift distribution n ( z ) of galaxy samples is essential for several cosmological probes including weak lensing. For imaging surveys, this is usually done using photometric redshifts estimated on an object-by-object basis. We present a new approach for directly measuring the global n ( z ) of cosmological galaxy samples, including uncertainties, using forward modeling. Our method relies on image simulations produced using \\textsc(UFig) (Ultra Fast Image Generator) and on ABC (Approximate Bayesian Computation) within the MCCL (Monte-Carlo Control Loops) framework. The galaxy population is modeled using parametric forms for the luminosity functions, spectral energy distributions, sizes and radial profiles of both blue and red galaxies. We apply exactly the same analysis to the real data and to the simulated images, which also include instrumental and observational effects. By adjusting the parameters of the simulations, we derive a set of acceptable models that are statistically consistent with the data. We then apply the same cuts to the simulations that were used to construct the target galaxy sample in the real data. The redshifts of the galaxies in the resulting simulated samples yield a set of n ( z ) distributions for the acceptable models. We demonstrate the method by determining n ( z ) for a cosmic shear like galaxy sample from the 4-band Subaru Suprime-Cam data in the COSMOS field. We also complement this imaging data with a spectroscopic calibration sample from the VVDS survey. We compare our resulting posterior n ( z ) distributions to the one derived from photometric redshifts estimated using 36 photometric bands in COSMOS and find good agreement. This offers good prospects for applying our approach to current and future large imaging surveys.

  18. The redshift distribution of cosmological samples: a forward modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbel, Jörg; Kacprzak, Tomasz; Amara, Adam; Refregier, Alexandre; Bruderer, Claudio; Nicola, Andrina

    2017-08-01

    Determining the redshift distribution n(z) of galaxy samples is essential for several cosmological probes including weak lensing. For imaging surveys, this is usually done using photometric redshifts estimated on an object-by-object basis. We present a new approach for directly measuring the global n(z) of cosmological galaxy samples, including uncertainties, using forward modeling. Our method relies on image simulations produced using \\textsc{UFig} (Ultra Fast Image Generator) and on ABC (Approximate Bayesian Computation) within the MCCL (Monte-Carlo Control Loops) framework. The galaxy population is modeled using parametric forms for the luminosity functions, spectral energy distributions, sizes and radial profiles of both blue and red galaxies. We apply exactly the same analysis to the real data and to the simulated images, which also include instrumental and observational effects. By adjusting the parameters of the simulations, we derive a set of acceptable models that are statistically consistent with the data. We then apply the same cuts to the simulations that were used to construct the target galaxy sample in the real data. The redshifts of the galaxies in the resulting simulated samples yield a set of n(z) distributions for the acceptable models. We demonstrate the method by determining n(z) for a cosmic shear like galaxy sample from the 4-band Subaru Suprime-Cam data in the COSMOS field. We also complement this imaging data with a spectroscopic calibration sample from the VVDS survey. We compare our resulting posterior n(z) distributions to the one derived from photometric redshifts estimated using 36 photometric bands in COSMOS and find good agreement. This offers good prospects for applying our approach to current and future large imaging surveys.

  19. The redshift distribution of cosmological samples: a forward modeling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbel, Jörg; Kacprzak, Tomasz; Amara, Adam; Refregier, Alexandre; Bruderer, Claudio; Nicola, Andrina

    2017-01-01

    Determining the redshift distribution n ( z ) of galaxy samples is essential for several cosmological probes including weak lensing. For imaging surveys, this is usually done using photometric redshifts estimated on an object-by-object basis. We present a new approach for directly measuring the global n ( z ) of cosmological galaxy samples, including uncertainties, using forward modeling. Our method relies on image simulations produced using \\textsc(UFig) (Ultra Fast Image Generator) and on ABC (Approximate Bayesian Computation) within the MCCL (Monte-Carlo Control Loops) framework. The galaxy population is modeled using parametric forms for the luminosity functions, spectral energy distributions, sizes and radial profiles of both blue and red galaxies. We apply exactly the same analysis to the real data and to the simulated images, which also include instrumental and observational effects. By adjusting the parameters of the simulations, we derive a set of acceptable models that are statistically consistent with the data. We then apply the same cuts to the simulations that were used to construct the target galaxy sample in the real data. The redshifts of the galaxies in the resulting simulated samples yield a set of n ( z ) distributions for the acceptable models. We demonstrate the method by determining n ( z ) for a cosmic shear like galaxy sample from the 4-band Subaru Suprime-Cam data in the COSMOS field. We also complement this imaging data with a spectroscopic calibration sample from the VVDS survey. We compare our resulting posterior n ( z ) distributions to the one derived from photometric redshifts estimated using 36 photometric bands in COSMOS and find good agreement. This offers good prospects for applying our approach to current and future large imaging surveys.

  20. Ozone Production in Global Tropospheric Models: Quantifying Errors due to Grid Resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, O.; Prather, M. J.

    2005-12-01

    Ozone production in global chemical models is dependent on model resolution because ozone chemistry is inherently nonlinear, the timescales for chemical production are short, and precursors are artificially distributed over the spatial scale of the model grid. In this study we examine the sensitivity of ozone, its precursors, and its production to resolution by running a global chemical transport model at four different resolutions between T21 (5.6° × 5.6°) and T106 (1.1° × 1.1°) and by quantifying the errors in regional and global budgets. The sensitivity to vertical mixing through the parameterization of boundary layer turbulence is also examined. We find less ozone production in the boundary layer at higher resolution, consistent with slower chemical production in polluted emission regions and greater export of precursors. Agreement with ozonesonde and aircraft measurements made during the NASA TRACE-P campaign over the Western Pacific in spring 2001 is consistently better at higher resolution. We demonstrate that the numerical errors in transport processes at a given resolution converge geometrically for a tracer at successively higher resolutions. The convergence in ozone production on progressing from T21 to T42, T63 and T106 resolution is likewise monotonic but still indicates large errors at 120~km scales, suggesting that T106 resolution is still too coarse to resolve regional ozone production. Diagnosing the ozone production and precursor transport that follow a short pulse of emissions over East Asia in springtime allows us to quantify the impacts of resolution on both regional and global ozone. Production close to continental emission regions is overestimated by 27% at T21 resolution, by 13% at T42 resolution, and by 5% at T106 resolution, but subsequent ozone production in the free troposphere is less significantly affected.

  1. Equality and CO2 emissions distribution in climate change integrated assessment modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantore, Nicola; Padilla, Emilio

    2010-01-01

    The equity implications of alternative climate policy measures are an essential issue to be considered in the design of future international agreements to tackle global warming. This paper specifically analyses the future path of emissions and income distribution and its determinants in different scenarios. Whereas our analysis is driven by tools which are typically applied in the income distribution literature and which have recently been applied to the analysis of CO 2 emissions distribution, a new methodological approach is that our study is driven by simulations run with the popular regionalised optimal growth climate change model RICE99 over the 1995-2105 period. We find that the architecture of environmental policies, the implementation of flexible mechanisms and income concentration are key determinants of emissions distribution over time. In particular we find a robust positive relationship between measures of inequalities in the distribution of emissions and income and that their magnitude will essentially depend on technological change. (author)

  2. The magnitude and causes of uncertainty in global model simulations of cloud condensation nuclei

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. A. Lee

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol–cloud interaction effects are a major source of uncertainty in climate models so it is important to quantify the sources of uncertainty and thereby direct research efforts. However, the computational expense of global aerosol models has prevented a full statistical analysis of their outputs. Here we perform a variance-based analysis of a global 3-D aerosol microphysics model to quantify the magnitude and leading causes of parametric uncertainty in model-estimated present-day concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN. Twenty-eight model parameters covering essentially all important aerosol processes, emissions and representation of aerosol size distributions were defined based on expert elicitation. An uncertainty analysis was then performed based on a Monte Carlo-type sampling of an emulator built for each model grid cell. The standard deviation around the mean CCN varies globally between about ±30% over some marine regions to ±40–100% over most land areas and high latitudes, implying that aerosol processes and emissions are likely to be a significant source of uncertainty in model simulations of aerosol–cloud effects on climate. Among the most important contributors to CCN uncertainty are the sizes of emitted primary particles, including carbonaceous combustion particles from wildfires, biomass burning and fossil fuel use, as well as sulfate particles formed on sub-grid scales. Emissions of carbonaceous combustion particles affect CCN uncertainty more than sulfur emissions. Aerosol emission-related parameters dominate the uncertainty close to sources, while uncertainty in aerosol microphysical processes becomes increasingly important in remote regions, being dominated by deposition and aerosol sulfate formation during cloud-processing. The results lead to several recommendations for research that would result in improved modelling of cloud–active aerosol on a global scale.

  3. Estimating surface water concentrations of “down-the-drain” chemicals in China using a global model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whelan, M.J.; Hodges, J.E.N.; Williams, R.J.; Keller, V.D.J.; Price, O.R.; Li, M.

    2012-01-01

    Predictions of surface water exposure to “down-the-drain” chemicals are presented which employ grid-based spatially-referenced data on average monthly runoff, population density, country-specific per capita domestic water and substance use rates and sewage treatment provision. Water and chemical load are routed through the landscape using flow directions derived from digital elevation data, accounting for in-stream chemical losses using simple first order kinetics. Although the spatial and temporal resolution of the model are relatively coarse, the model still has advantages over spatially inexplicit “unit-world” approaches, which apply arbitrary dilution factors, in terms of predicting the location of exposure hotspots and the statistical distribution of concentrations. The latter can be employed in probabilistic risk assessments. Here the model was applied to predict surface water exposure to “down-the-drain” chemicals in China for different levels of sewage treatment provision. Predicted spatial patterns of concentration were consistent with observed water quality classes for China. - Highlights: ► A global-scale model of “down-the-drain” chemical concentrations is presented. ► The model was used to predict spatial patterns of exposure in China. ► Predictions were consistent with observed water quality classes. ► The model can identify hotspots and statistical distributions of concentrations. - A global-scale model was used to predict spatial patterns of “down-the-drain” chemical concentrations in China. Predictions were consistent with observed water quality classes, demonstrating the potential value of the model.

  4. Modelling water use in global hydrological models: review, challenges and directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bierkens, M. F.; de Graaf, I.; Wada, Y.; Wanders, N.; Van Beek, L. P.

    2017-12-01

    During the late 1980s and early 1990s, awareness of the shortage of global water resources lead to the first detailed global water resources assessments using regional statistics of water use and observations of meteorological and hydrological variables. Shortly thereafter, the first macroscale hydrological models (MHM) appeared. In these models, blue water (i.e., surface water and renewable groundwater) availability was calculated by accumulating runoff over a stream network and comparing it with population densities or with estimated water demand for agriculture, industry and households. In this talk we review the evolution of human impact modelling in global land models with a focus on global water resources, touching upon developments of the last 15 years: i.e. calculating human water scarcity; estimating groundwater depletion; adding dams and reservoirs; fully integrating water use (demand, withdrawal, consumption, return flow) in the hydrology; simulating the effects of land use change. We show example studies for each of these steps. We identify We identify major challenges that hamper the further development of integrated water resources modelling. Examples of these are: 1) simulating reservoir operations; 2) including local infrastructure and redistribution; 3) using the correct allocations rules; 4) projecting future water demand and water use. For each of these challenges we signify promising directions for further research.

  5. A mesoscale chemical transport model (MEDIUM) nested in a global chemical transport model (MEDIANTE)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Claveau, J; Ramaroson, R [Office National d` Etudes et de Recherches Aerospatiales (ONERA), 92 - Chatillon (France)

    1998-12-31

    The lower stratosphere and upper troposphere (UT-LS) are frequently subject to mesoscale or local scale exchange of air masses occurring along discontinuities. This exchange (e.g. downward) can constitute one of the most important source of ozone from the stratosphere down to the middle troposphere where strong mixing dilutes the air mass and competing the non-linear chemistry. The distribution of the chemical species in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere depends upon various source emissions, e.g. from polluted boundary layer or from aircraft emissions. Global models, as well as chemical transport models describe the climatological state of the atmosphere and are not able to describe correctly the stratosphere and troposphere exchange. Mesoscale models go further in the description of smaller scales and can reasonably include a rather detailed chemistry. They can be used to assess the budget of NO{sub x} from aircraft emissions in a mesoscale domain. (author) 4 refs.

  6. A mesoscale chemical transport model (MEDIUM) nested in a global chemical transport model (MEDIANTE)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Claveau, J.; Ramaroson, R. [Office National d`Etudes et de Recherches Aerospatiales (ONERA), 92 - Chatillon (France)

    1997-12-31

    The lower stratosphere and upper troposphere (UT-LS) are frequently subject to mesoscale or local scale exchange of air masses occurring along discontinuities. This exchange (e.g. downward) can constitute one of the most important source of ozone from the stratosphere down to the middle troposphere where strong mixing dilutes the air mass and competing the non-linear chemistry. The distribution of the chemical species in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere depends upon various source emissions, e.g. from polluted boundary layer or from aircraft emissions. Global models, as well as chemical transport models describe the climatological state of the atmosphere and are not able to describe correctly the stratosphere and troposphere exchange. Mesoscale models go further in the description of smaller scales and can reasonably include a rather detailed chemistry. They can be used to assess the budget of NO{sub x} from aircraft emissions in a mesoscale domain. (author) 4 refs.

  7. Global Distributions of Temperature Variances At Different Stratospheric Altitudes From Gps/met Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrilov, N. M.; Karpova, N. V.; Jacobi, Ch.

    The GPS/MET measurements at altitudes 5 - 35 km are used to obtain global distribu- tions of small-scale temperature variances at different stratospheric altitudes. Individ- ual temperature profiles are smoothed using second order polynomial approximations in 5 - 7 km thick layers centered at 10, 20 and 30 km. Temperature inclinations from the averaged values and their variances obtained for each profile are averaged for each month of year during the GPS/MET experiment. Global distributions of temperature variances have inhomogeneous structure. Locations and latitude distributions of the maxima and minima of the variances depend on altitudes and season. One of the rea- sons for the small-scale temperature perturbations in the stratosphere could be internal gravity waves (IGWs). Some assumptions are made about peculiarities of IGW gener- ation and propagation in the tropo-stratosphere based on the results of GPS/MET data analysis.

  8. Distribution system modeling and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kersting, William H

    2001-01-01

    For decades, distribution engineers did not have the sophisticated tools developed for analyzing transmission systems-often they had only their instincts. Things have changed, and we now have computer programs that allow engineers to simulate, analyze, and optimize distribution systems. Powerful as these programs are, however, without a real understanding of the operating characteristics of a distribution system, engineers using the programs can easily make serious errors in their designs and operating procedures. Distribution System Modeling and Analysis helps prevent those errors. It gives readers a basic understanding of the modeling and operating characteristics of the major components of a distribution system. One by one, the author develops and analyzes each component as a stand-alone element, then puts them all together to analyze a distribution system comprising the various shunt and series devices for power-flow and short-circuit studies. He includes the derivation of all models and includes many num...

  9. Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics

    KAUST Repository

    Jeong, Jaehong

    2017-11-28

    Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture the spatial and temporal behavior of these global data sets. Though the geodesic distance is the most natural metric for measuring distance on the surface of a sphere, mathematical limitations have compelled statisticians to use the chordal distance to compute the covariance matrix in many applications instead, which may cause physically unrealistic distortions. Therefore, covariance functions directly defined on a sphere using the geodesic distance are needed. We discuss the issues that arise when dealing with spherical data sets on a global scale and provide references to recent literature. We review the current approaches to building process models on spheres, including the differential operator, the stochastic partial differential equation, the kernel convolution, and the deformation approaches. We illustrate realizations obtained from Gaussian processes with different covariance structures and the use of isotropic and nonstationary covariance models through deformations and geographical indicators for global surface temperature data. To assess the suitability of each method, we compare their log-likelihood values and prediction scores, and we end with a discussion of related research problems.

  10. Study of sea-surface slope distribution and its effect on radar backscatter based on Global Precipitation Measurement Ku-band precipitation radar measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Qiushuang; Zhang, Jie; Fan, Chenqing; Wang, Jing; Meng, Junmin

    2018-01-01

    The collocated normalized radar backscattering cross-section measurements from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ku-band precipitation radar (KuPR) and the winds from the moored buoys are used to study the effect of different sea-surface slope probability density functions (PDFs), including the Gaussian PDF, the Gram-Charlier PDF, and the Liu PDF, on the geometrical optics (GO) model predictions of the radar backscatter at low incidence angles (0 deg to 18 deg) at different sea states. First, the peakedness coefficient in the Liu distribution is determined using the collocations at the normal incidence angle, and the results indicate that the peakedness coefficient is a nonlinear function of the wind speed. Then, the performance of the modified Liu distribution, i.e., Liu distribution using the obtained peakedness coefficient estimate; the Gaussian distribution; and the Gram-Charlier distribution is analyzed. The results show that the GO model predictions with the modified Liu distribution agree best with the KuPR measurements, followed by the predictions with the Gaussian distribution, while the predictions with the Gram-Charlier distribution have larger differences as the total or the slick filtered, not the radar filtered, probability density is included in the distribution. The best-performing distribution changes with incidence angle and changes with wind speed.

  11. Global modelling of Cryptosporidium in surface water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeulen, Lucie; Hofstra, Nynke

    2016-04-01

    Introduction Waterborne pathogens that cause diarrhoea, such as Cryptosporidium, pose a health risk all over the world. In many regions quantitative information on pathogens in surface water is unavailable. Our main objective is to model Cryptosporidium concentrations in surface waters worldwide. We present the GloWPa-Crypto model and use the model in a scenario analysis. A first exploration of global Cryptosporidium emissions to surface waters has been published by Hofstra et al. (2013). Further work has focused on modelling emissions of Cryptosporidium and Rotavirus to surface waters from human sources (Vermeulen et al 2015, Kiulia et al 2015). A global waterborne pathogen model can provide valuable insights by (1) providing quantitative information on pathogen levels in data-sparse regions, (2) identifying pathogen hotspots, (3) enabling future projections under global change scenarios and (4) supporting decision making. Material and Methods GloWPa-Crypto runs on a monthly time step and represents conditions for approximately the year 2010. The spatial resolution is a 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude x longitude grid for the world. We use livestock maps (http://livestock.geo-wiki.org/) combined with literature estimates to calculate spatially explicit livestock Cryptosporidium emissions. For human Cryptosporidium emissions, we use UN population estimates, the WHO/UNICEF JMP sanitation country data and literature estimates of wastewater treatment. We combine our emissions model with a river routing model and data from the VIC hydrological model (http://vic.readthedocs.org/en/master/) to calculate concentrations in surface water. Cryptosporidium survival during transport depends on UV radiation and water temperature. We explore pathogen emissions and concentrations in 2050 with the new Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) 1 and 3. These scenarios describe plausible future trends in demographics, economic development and the degree of global integration. Results and

  12. Building essential biodiversity variables (EBVs) of species distribution and abundance at a global scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kissling, W Daniel; Ahumada, Jorge A; Bowser, Anne; Fernandez, Miguel; Fernández, Néstor; García, Enrique Alonso; Guralnick, Robert P; Isaac, Nick J B; Kelling, Steve; Los, Wouter; McRae, Louise; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Obst, Matthias; Santamaria, Monica; Skidmore, Andrew K; Williams, Kristen J; Agosti, Donat; Amariles, Daniel; Arvanitidis, Christos; Bastin, Lucy; De Leo, Francesca; Egloff, Willi; Elith, Jane; Hobern, Donald; Martin, David; Pereira, Henrique M; Pesole, Graziano; Peterseil, Johannes; Saarenmaa, Hannu; Schigel, Dmitry; Schmeller, Dirk S; Segata, Nicola; Turak, Eren; Uhlir, Paul F; Wee, Brian; Hardisty, Alex R

    2018-02-01

    Much biodiversity data is collected worldwide, but it remains challenging to assemble the scattered knowledge for assessing biodiversity status and trends. The concept of Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) was introduced to structure biodiversity monitoring globally, and to harmonize and standardize biodiversity data from disparate sources to capture a minimum set of critical variables required to study, report and manage biodiversity change. Here, we assess the challenges of a 'Big Data' approach to building global EBV data products across taxa and spatiotemporal scales, focusing on species distribution and abundance. The majority of currently available data on species distributions derives from incidentally reported observations or from surveys where presence-only or presence-absence data are sampled repeatedly with standardized protocols. Most abundance data come from opportunistic population counts or from population time series using standardized protocols (e.g. repeated surveys of the same population from single or multiple sites). Enormous complexity exists in integrating these heterogeneous, multi-source data sets across space, time, taxa and different sampling methods. Integration of such data into global EBV data products requires correcting biases introduced by imperfect detection and varying sampling effort, dealing with different spatial resolution and extents, harmonizing measurement units from different data sources or sampling methods, applying statistical tools and models for spatial inter- or extrapolation, and quantifying sources of uncertainty and errors in data and models. To support the development of EBVs by the Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON), we identify 11 key workflow steps that will operationalize the process of building EBV data products within and across research infrastructures worldwide. These workflow steps take multiple sequential activities into account, including identification and

  13. Habitats at Risk. Global Warming and Species Loss in Globally Significant Terrestrial Ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malcolm, J.R.; Liu, Canran; Miller, L.B.; Allnutt, T.; Hansen, L.

    2002-02-01

    In this study, a suite of models of global climate and vegetation change is used to investigate three important global warming-induced threats to the terrestrial Global 200 ecoregions: (1) Invasions by new habitat types (and corresponding loss of original habitat types); (2) Local changes of habitat types; (3) High rates of required species migration. Seven climate models (general circulation models or GCMs) and two vegetation models (BIOME3 and MAPSS) were used to produce 14 impact scenarios under the climate associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, which is expected to occur in less than 100 years. Previous analyses indicated that most of the variation among the impact scenarios was attributable to the particular vegetation model used, hence the authors provide results separately for the two models. The models do not provide information on biodiversity per se, but instead simulate current and future potential distributions of major vegetation types (biomes) such as tundra and broadleaf tropical rain forest

  14. Groundwater development stress: Global-scale indices compared to regional modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alley, William; Clark, Brian R.; Ely, Matt; Faunt, Claudia

    2018-01-01

    The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.

  15. ECHMERIT: A new on-line global mercury-chemistry model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, G.; Hedgecock, I. M.; Pirrone, N.

    2009-04-01

    Mercury is a volatile metal, that is of concern because when deposited and transformed to methylmercury accumulates within the food-web. Due to the long lifetime of elemental mercury, which is the dominant fraction of mercury species in the atmosphere, mercury is prone to long-range transport and therefore distributed over the globe, transported and hence deposited even in regions far from anthropogenic emission sources. Mercury is released to the atmosphere from a variety of natural and anthropogenic sources, in elementary and oxidised forms, and as particulate mercury. It is then transported, but also transformed chemically in the gaseous phase, as well as in aqueous phase within cloud and rain droplets. Mercury (particularly its oxidised forms) is removed from the atmosphere though wet and dry deposition processes, a large fraction of deposited mercury is, after chemical or biological reduction, re-emitted to the atmosphere as elementary mercury. To investigate mercury chemistry and transport processes on the global scale, the new, global model ECHMERIT has been developed. ECHMERIT simulates meteorology, transport, deposition, photolysis and chemistry on-line. The general circulation model on which ECHMERIT is based is ECHAM5. Sophisticated chemical modules have been implemented, including gas phase chemistry based on the CBM-Z chemistry mechanism, as well as aqueous phase chemistry, both of which have been adapted to include Hg chemistry and Hg species gas-droplet mass transfer. ECHMERIT uses the fast-J photolysis routine. State-of-the-art procedures simulating wet and dry deposition and emissions were adapted and included in the model as well. An overview of the model structure, development, validation and sensitivity studies is presented.

  16. Stability Analysis of an Advanced Persistent Distributed Denial-of-Service Attack Dynamical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunming Zhang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The advanced persistent distributed denial-of-service (APDDoS attack is a fairly significant threat to cybersecurity. Formulating a mathematical model for accurate prediction of APDDoS attack is important. However, the dynamical model of APDDoS attack has barely been reported. This paper first proposes a novel dynamical model of APDDoS attack to understand the mechanisms of APDDoS attack. Then, the attacked threshold of this model is calculated. The global stability of attack-free and attacked equilibrium are both proved. The influences of the model’s parameters on attacked equilibrium are discussed. Eventually, the main conclusions of the theoretical analysis are examined through computer simulations.

  17. The CAFE model: A net production model for global ocean phytoplankton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silsbe, Greg M.; Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Halsey, Kimberly H.; Milligan, Allen J.; Westberry, Toby K.

    2016-12-01

    The Carbon, Absorption, and Fluorescence Euphotic-resolving (CAFE) net primary production model is an adaptable framework for advancing global ocean productivity assessments by exploiting state-of-the-art satellite ocean color analyses and addressing key physiological and ecological attributes of phytoplankton. Here we present the first implementation of the CAFE model that incorporates inherent optical properties derived from ocean color measurements into a mechanistic and accurate model of phytoplankton growth rates (μ) and net phytoplankton production (NPP). The CAFE model calculates NPP as the product of energy absorption (QPAR), and the efficiency (ϕμ) by which absorbed energy is converted into carbon biomass (CPhyto), while μ is calculated as NPP normalized to CPhyto. The CAFE model performance is evaluated alongside 21 other NPP models against a spatially robust and globally representative set of direct NPP measurements. This analysis demonstrates that the CAFE model explains the greatest amount of variance and has the lowest model bias relative to other NPP models analyzed with this data set. Global oceanic NPP from the CAFE model (52 Pg C m-2 yr-1) and mean division rates (0.34 day-1) are derived from climatological satellite data (2002-2014). This manuscript discusses and validates individual CAFE model parameters (e.g., QPAR and ϕμ), provides detailed sensitivity analyses, and compares the CAFE model results and parameterization to other widely cited models.

  18. Stochastic dynamics of an inflationary model and initial distribution of universes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nambu, Yasusada.

    1989-01-01

    We investigate the stationary solution of the modified Fokker-Planck equation which governs the global dynamics of the inflation. Contrary to the original FP equation which is for a Hubble horizon size region, we found that the normalizable stationary solution can exist for modified Fokker-Planck equation which is for many Hubble horizon size regions. For a chaotic inflationary model with the potential λψ 2n , we get initial distribution of classical universes using this solution, and discussed the physical meaning of it. Especially for n = 2, this distribution obeys power-law and classical universes which created from the Planck energy region make the fractal structure. Other cases n ≠ 2, creation of large classical universes are strongly suppressed. (author)

  19. Global asymptotic stability of Cohen-Grossberg neural network with continuously distributed delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wan Li; Sun Jianhua

    2005-01-01

    The convergence dynamical behaviors of Cohen-Grossberg neural network with continuously distributed delays are discussed. By using Brouwer's fixed point theorem, matrix theory and analysis techniques such as Gronwall inequality, some new sufficient conditions guaranteeing the existence, uniqueness of an equilibrium point and its global asymptotic stability are obtained. An example is given to illustrate the theoretical results

  20. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  1. Modeling the distribution of colonial species to improve estimation of plankton concentration in ballast water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajakaruna, Harshana; VandenByllaardt, Julie; Kydd, Jocelyn; Bailey, Sarah

    2018-03-01

    The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set limits on allowable plankton concentrations in ballast water discharge to minimize aquatic invasions globally. Previous guidance on ballast water sampling and compliance decision thresholds was based on the assumption that probability distributions of plankton are Poisson when spatially homogenous, or negative binomial when heterogeneous. We propose a hierarchical probability model, which incorporates distributions at the level of particles (i.e., discrete individuals plus colonies per unit volume) and also within particles (i.e., individuals per particle) to estimate the average plankton concentration in ballast water. We examined the performance of the models using data for plankton in the size class ≥ 10 μm and test ballast water compliance using the above models.

  2. Global/local methods for probabilistic structural analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millwater, H. R.; Wu, Y.-T.

    1993-04-01

    A probabilistic global/local method is proposed to reduce the computational requirements of probabilistic structural analysis. A coarser global model is used for most of the computations with a local more refined model used only at key probabilistic conditions. The global model is used to establish the cumulative distribution function (cdf) and the Most Probable Point (MPP). The local model then uses the predicted MPP to adjust the cdf value. The global/local method is used within the advanced mean value probabilistic algorithm. The local model can be more refined with respect to the g1obal model in terms of finer mesh, smaller time step, tighter tolerances, etc. and can be used with linear or nonlinear models. The basis for this approach is described in terms of the correlation between the global and local models which can be estimated from the global and local MPPs. A numerical example is presented using the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis program with the finite element method used for the structural modeling. The results clearly indicate a significant computer savings with minimal loss in accuracy.

  3. Challenges and Opportunities in Modeling of the Global Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janjic, Zavisa; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Vasic, Ratko

    2016-04-01

    Modeling paradigms on global scales may need to be reconsidered in order to better utilize the power of massively parallel processing. For high computational efficiency with distributed memory, each core should work on a small subdomain of the full integration domain, and exchange only few rows of halo data with the neighbouring cores. Note that the described scenario strongly favors horizontally local discretizations. This is relatively easy to achieve in regional models. However, the spherical geometry complicates the problem. The latitude-longitude grid with local in space and explicit in time differencing has been an early choice and remained in use ever since. The problem with this method is that the grid size in the longitudinal direction tends to zero as the poles are approached. So, in addition to having unnecessarily high resolution near the poles, polar filtering has to be applied in order to use a time step of a reasonable size. However, the polar filtering requires transpositions involving extra communications as well as more computations. The spectral transform method and the semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian schemes opened the way for application of spectral representation. With some variations, such techniques are currently dominating in global models. Unfortunately, the horizontal non-locality is inherent to the spectral representation and implicit time differencing, which inhibits scaling on a large number of cores. In this respect the lat-lon grid with polar filtering is a step in the right direction, particularly at high resolutions where the Legendre transforms become increasingly expensive. Other grids with reduced variability of grid distances, such as various versions of the cubed sphere and the hexagonal/pentagonal ("soccer ball") grids, were proposed almost fifty years ago. However, on these grids, large-scale (wavenumber 4 and 5) fictitious solutions ("grid imprinting") with significant amplitudes can develop. Due to their large scales, that

  4. Wrong, but useful: regional species distribution models may not be improved by range-wide data under biased sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Gabbas, Ahmed; Dormann, Carsten F

    2018-02-01

    Species distribution modeling (SDM) is an essential method in ecology and conservation. SDMs are often calibrated within one country's borders, typically along a limited environmental gradient with biased and incomplete data, making the quality of these models questionable. In this study, we evaluated how adequate are national presence-only data for calibrating regional SDMs. We trained SDMs for Egyptian bat species at two different scales: only within Egypt and at a species-specific global extent. We used two modeling algorithms: Maxent and elastic net, both under the point-process modeling framework. For each modeling algorithm, we measured the congruence of the predictions of global and regional models for Egypt, assuming that the lower the congruence, the lower the appropriateness of the Egyptian dataset to describe the species' niche. We inspected the effect of incorporating predictions from global models as additional predictor ("prior") to regional models, and quantified the improvement in terms of AUC and the congruence between regional models run with and without priors. Moreover, we analyzed predictive performance improvements after correction for sampling bias at both scales. On average, predictions from global and regional models in Egypt only weakly concur. Collectively, the use of priors did not lead to much improvement: similar AUC and high congruence between regional models calibrated with and without priors. Correction for sampling bias led to higher model performance, whatever prior used, making the use of priors less pronounced. Under biased and incomplete sampling, the use of global bats data did not improve regional model performance. Without enough bias-free regional data, we cannot objectively identify the actual improvement of regional models after incorporating information from the global niche. However, we still believe in great potential for global model predictions to guide future surveys and improve regional sampling in data

  5. Integrating chemistry into 3D climate models: Detailed kinetics in the troposphere and stratosphere of a global climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kao, C.Y.J.; Elliott, S. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States). Earth and Environmental Sciences Div.; Turco, R.P.; Zhao, X. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    1997-11-01

    This is the final report of a three-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The motivation for the project is to create the first complete, three-dimensional climate model that enfolds atmospheric photochemistry. The LANL chemical global climate model (GCM) not only distributes the trace greenhouse gases and modifies their concentrations within the detailed photochemical web, but also permits them to influence the radiation field and so force their own transport. Both atmospheric chemistry and fluid dynamics are nonlinear and zonally asymmetric phenomena. They can only be adequately modeled in three dimensions on the global grid. The kinetics-augmented GCM is the only program within the atmospheric community capable of investigating interaction involving chemistry and transport. The authors have conducted case studies of timely three-dimensional chemistry issues. Examples include ozone production from biomass burning plumes, kinetic feedbacks in zonally asymmetric transport phenomena with month- to year-long time scales, and volcano sulfate aerosols with respect to their potential effects on tropospheric ozone depletion.

  6. Global modeling of secondary organic aerosol formation from aromatic hydrocarbons: high- vs. low-yield pathways

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. K. Henze

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Formation of SOA from the aromatic species toluene, xylene, and, for the first time, benzene, is added to a global chemical transport model. A simple mechanism is presented that accounts for competition between low and high-yield pathways of SOA formation, wherein secondary gas-phase products react further with either nitric oxide (NO or hydroperoxy radical (HO2 to yield semi- or non-volatile products, respectively. Aromatic species yield more SOA when they react with OH in regions where the [NO]/[HO2] ratios are lower. The SOA yield thus depends upon the distribution of aromatic emissions, with biomass burning emissions being in areas with lower [NO]/[HO2] ratios, and the reactivity of the aromatic with respect to OH, as a lower initial reactivity allows transport away from industrial source regions, where [NO]/[HO2] ratios are higher, to more remote regions, where this ratio is lower and, hence, the ultimate yield of SOA is higher. As a result, benzene is estimated to be the most important aromatic species with regards to global formation of SOA, with a total production nearly equal that of toluene and xylene combined. Global production of SOA from aromatic sources via the mechanisms identified here is estimated at 3.5 Tg/yr, resulting in a global burden of 0.08 Tg, twice as large as previous estimates. The contribution of these largely anthropogenic sources to global SOA is still small relative to biogenic sources, which are estimated to comprise 90% of the global SOA burden, about half of which comes from isoprene. Uncertainty in these estimates owing to factors ranging from the atmospheric relevance of chamber conditions to model deficiencies result in an estimated range of SOA production from aromatics of 2–12 Tg/yr. Though this uncertainty range affords a significant anthropogenic contribution to global SOA, it is evident from comparisons to recent observations that additional pathways for

  7. A high-resolution global-scale groundwater model

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Graaf, I. E. M.; Sutanudjaja, E. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2015-02-01

    Groundwater is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water. It plays a vital role in satisfying basic needs for drinking water, agriculture and industrial activities. During times of drought groundwater sustains baseflow to rivers and wetlands, thereby supporting ecosystems. Most global-scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, mainly due to lack of geohydrological data at the global scale. For the simulation of lateral flow and groundwater head dynamics, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system is needed, especially for GHMs that run at finer resolutions. In this study we present a global-scale groundwater model (run at 6' resolution) using MODFLOW to construct an equilibrium water table at its natural state as the result of long-term climatic forcing. The used aquifer schematization and properties are based on available global data sets of lithology and transmissivities combined with the estimated thickness of an upper, unconfined aquifer. This model is forced with outputs from the land-surface PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) model, specifically net recharge and surface water levels. A sensitivity analysis, in which the model was run with various parameter settings, showed that variation in saturated conductivity has the largest impact on the groundwater levels simulated. Validation with observed groundwater heads showed that groundwater heads are reasonably well simulated for many regions of the world, especially for sediment basins (R2 = 0.95). The simulated regional-scale groundwater patterns and flow paths demonstrate the relevance of lateral groundwater flow in GHMs. Inter-basin groundwater flows can be a significant part of a basin's water budget and help to sustain river baseflows, especially during droughts. Also, water availability of larger aquifer systems can be positively affected by additional recharge from inter-basin groundwater flows.

  8. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

    2013-04-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie

  9. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. B. B. Booth

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high

  10. Validation of high-resolution aerosol optical thickness simulated by a global non-hydrostatic model against remote sensing measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goto, Daisuke; Sato, Yousuke; Yashiro, Hisashi; Suzuki, Kentaroh; Nakajima, Teruyuki

    2017-02-01

    A high-performance computing resource allows us to conduct numerical simulations with a horizontal grid spacing that is sufficiently high to resolve cloud systems. The cutting-edge computational capability, which was provided by the K computer at RIKEN in Japan, enabled the authors to perform long-term, global simulations of air pollutions and clouds with unprecedentedly high horizontal resolutions. In this study, a next generation model capable of simulating global air pollutions with O(10 km) grid spacing by coupling an atmospheric chemistry model to the Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) was performed. Using the newly developed model, month-long simulations for July were conducted with 14 km grid spacing on the K computer. Regarding the global distributions of aerosol optical thickness (AOT), it was found that the correlation coefficient (CC) between the simulation and AERONET measurements was approximately 0.7, and the normalized mean bias was -10%. The simulated AOT was also compared with satellite-retrieved values; the CC was approximately 0.6. The radiative effects due to each chemical species (dust, sea salt, organics, and sulfate) were also calculated and compared with multiple measurements. As a result, the simulated fluxes of upward shortwave radiation at the top of atmosphere and the surface compared well with the observed values, whereas those of downward shortwave radiation at the surface were underestimated, even if all aerosol components were considered. However, the aerosol radiative effects on the downward shortwave flux at the surface were found to be as high as 10 W/m2 in a global scale; thus, simulated aerosol distributions can strongly affect the simulated air temperature and dynamic circulation.

  11. Quantifying the global and distributional aspects of American household carbon footprint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, Christopher L.; Matthews, H. Scott

    2008-01-01

    Analysis of household consumption and its environmental impact remains one of the most important topics in sustainability research. Nevertheless, much past and recent work has focused on domestic national averages, neglecting both the growing importance of international trade on household carbon footprint and the variation between households of different income levels and demographics. Using consumer expenditure surveys and multi-country life cycle assessment techniques, this paper analyzes the global and distributional aspects of American household carbon footprint. We find that due to recently increased international trade, 30% of total US household CO 2 impact in 2004 occurred outside the US. Further, households vary considerably in their CO 2 responsibilities: at least a factor of ten difference exists between low and high-impact households, with total household income and expenditure being the best predictors of both domestic and international portions of the total CO 2 impact. The global location of emissions, which cannot be calculated using standard input-output analysis, and the variation of household impacts with income, have important ramifications for polices designed to lower consumer impacts on climate change, such as carbon taxes. The effectiveness and fairness of such policies hinges on a proper understanding of how income distributions, rebound effects, and international trade affect them. (author)

  12. Access, excess, and ethics--towards a sustainable distribution model for antibiotics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heyman, Gabriel; Cars, Otto; Bejarano, Maria-Teresa; Peterson, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    The increasing antibiotic resistance is a global threat to health care as we know it. Yet there is no model of distribution ready for a new antibiotic that balances access against excessive or inappropriate use in rural settings in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where the burden of communicable diseases is high and access to quality health care is low. Departing from a hypothetical scenario of rising antibiotic resistance among pneumococci, 11 stakeholders in the health systems of various LMICs were interviewed one-on-one to give their view on how a new effective antibiotic should be distributed to balance access against the risk of inappropriate use. Transcripts were subjected to qualitative 'framework' analysis. The analysis resulted in four main themes: Barriers to rational access to antibiotics; balancing access and excess; learning from other communicable diseases; and a system-wide intervention. The tension between access to antibiotics and rational use stems from shortcomings found in the health systems of LMICs. Constructing a sustainable yet accessible model of antibiotic distribution for LMICs is a task of health system-wide proportions, which is why we strongly suggest using systems thinking in future research on this issue.

  13. Global dynamics of a dengue epidemic mathematical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai Liming; Guo Shumin; Li, XueZhi; Ghosh, Mini

    2009-01-01

    The paper investigates the global stability of a dengue epidemic model with saturation and bilinear incidence. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The stability of these two equilibria is controlled by the threshold number R 0 . It is shown that if R 0 is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R 0 is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.

  14. Globalization and health care: global justice and the role of physicians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toumi, Rabee

    2014-02-01

    In today's globalized world, nations cannot be totally isolated from or indifferent to their neighbors, especially in regards to medicine and health. While globalization has brought prosperity to millions, disparities among nations and nationals are growing raising once again the question of justice. Similarly, while medicine has developed dramatically over the past few decades, health disparities at the global level are staggering. Seemingly, what our humanity could achieve in matters of scientific development is not justly distributed to benefit everyone. In this paper, it will be argued that a global theoretical agreement on principles of justice may prove unattainable; however, a grass-roots change is warranted to change the current situation. The UNESCO Declaration on Bioethics and Human Rights will be considered as a starting point to achieve this change through extracting the main values embedded in its principles. These values, namely, respecting human dignity and tending to human vulnerability with a hospitable attitude, should then be revived in medical practice. Medical education will be one possible venue to achieve that, especially through role models. Future physicians will then become the fervent advocates for a global and just distribution of health care.

  15. Global Distribution of Active Volcanism on Io as Known at the End of the Galileo Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, Rosaly M. C.; Kamp. Lucas W.; Smythe, W. D.; Radebaugh, J.; Turtle, E.; Perry, J.; Bruno, B.

    2004-01-01

    Hot spots are manifestations of Io s mechanism of internal heating and heat transfer. Therefore, the global distribution of hot spots and their power output has important implications for how Io is losing heat. The end of the Galileo mission is an opportune time to revisit studies of the distribution of hot spots on Io, and to investigate the distribution of their power output.

  16. Global stability of stochastic high-order neural networks with discrete and distributed delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Zidong; Fang Jianan; Liu Xiaohui

    2008-01-01

    High-order neural networks can be considered as an expansion of Hopfield neural networks, and have stronger approximation property, faster convergence rate, greater storage capacity, and higher fault tolerance than lower-order neural networks. In this paper, the global asymptotic stability analysis problem is considered for a class of stochastic high-order neural networks with discrete and distributed time-delays. Based on an Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and the stochastic stability analysis theory, several sufficient conditions are derived, which guarantee the global asymptotic convergence of the equilibrium point in the mean square. It is shown that the stochastic high-order delayed neural networks under consideration are globally asymptotically stable in the mean square if two linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) are feasible, where the feasibility of LMIs can be readily checked by the Matlab LMI toolbox. It is also shown that the main results in this paper cover some recently published works. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed global stability criteria

  17. Global terrestrial isoprene emission models: sensitivity to variability in climate and vegetation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Arneth

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Due to its effects on the atmospheric lifetime of methane, the burdens of tropospheric ozone and growth of secondary organic aerosol, isoprene is central among the biogenic compounds that need to be taken into account for assessment of anthropogenic air pollution-climate change interactions. Lack of process-understanding regarding leaf isoprene production as well as of suitable observations to constrain and evaluate regional or global simulation results add large uncertainties to past, present and future emissions estimates. Focusing on contemporary climate conditions, we compare three global isoprene models that differ in their representation of vegetation and isoprene emission algorithm. We specifically aim to investigate the between- and within model variation that is introduced by varying some of the models' main features, and to determine which spatial and/or temporal features are robust between models and different experimental set-ups. In their individual standard configurations, the models broadly agree with respect to the chief isoprene sources and emission seasonality, with maximum monthly emission rates around 20–25 Tg C, when averaged by 30-degree latitudinal bands. They also indicate relatively small (approximately 5 to 10 % around the mean interannual variability of total global emissions. The models are sensitive to changes in one or more of their main model components and drivers (e.g., underlying vegetation fields, climate input which can yield increases or decreases in total annual emissions of cumulatively by more than 30 %. Varying drivers also strongly alters the seasonal emission pattern. The variable response needs to be interpreted in view of the vegetation emission capacities, as well as diverging absolute and regional distribution of light, radiation and temperature, but the direction of the simulated emission changes was not as uniform as anticipated. Our results highlight the need for modellers to evaluate their

  18. Tree-Based Global Model Tests for Polytomous Rasch Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komboz, Basil; Strobl, Carolin; Zeileis, Achim

    2018-01-01

    Psychometric measurement models are only valid if measurement invariance holds between test takers of different groups. Global model tests, such as the well-established likelihood ratio (LR) test, are sensitive to violations of measurement invariance, such as differential item functioning and differential step functioning. However, these…

  19. Continental distribution as a forcing factor for global-scale temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barron, E J; Thompson, S L; Hay, W W

    1984-08-16

    Since the advent of the continental drift hypothesis, changing continental geometries have been proposed as an explanation for long-term temperature variability. The climatic influence of a few specific past geographies has been investigated quantitatively, but these studies do not indicate the potential temperature variability due to continental positions. This problem has been examined only with simple climate models having limiting assumptions such as no cloud cover. Here idealized continental geometries are used as boundary conditions in a simulation using a general circulation model (GCM) of the atmosphere. The range in model simulated globally-averaged surface temperature is 7.4 K with a difference in polar surface temperature of up to 34 K. The simulations suggest a substantial climatic sensitivity to continental positions with the coldest global climate when land masses are in high latitudes. Although the simulations have not captured theoretical limits of climatic variability due to continental positions, present-day geography is near the cold end of this spectrum. 20 references, 1 figure.

  20. A Variance Distribution Model of Surface EMG Signals Based on Inverse Gamma Distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, Hideaki; Furui, Akira; Kurita, Yuichi; Tsuji, Toshio

    2017-11-01

    Objective: This paper describes the formulation of a surface electromyogram (EMG) model capable of representing the variance distribution of EMG signals. Methods: In the model, EMG signals are handled based on a Gaussian white noise process with a mean of zero for each variance value. EMG signal variance is taken as a random variable that follows inverse gamma distribution, allowing the representation of noise superimposed onto this variance. Variance distribution estimation based on marginal likelihood maximization is also outlined in this paper. The procedure can be approximated using rectified and smoothed EMG signals, thereby allowing the determination of distribution parameters in real time at low computational cost. Results: A simulation experiment was performed to evaluate the accuracy of distribution estimation using artificially generated EMG signals, with results demonstrating that the proposed model's accuracy is higher than that of maximum-likelihood-based estimation. Analysis of variance distribution using real EMG data also suggested a relationship between variance distribution and signal-dependent noise. Conclusion: The study reported here was conducted to examine the performance of a proposed surface EMG model capable of representing variance distribution and a related distribution parameter estimation method. Experiments using artificial and real EMG data demonstrated the validity of the model. Significance: Variance distribution estimated using the proposed model exhibits potential in the estimation of muscle force. Objective: This paper describes the formulation of a surface electromyogram (EMG) model capable of representing the variance distribution of EMG signals. Methods: In the model, EMG signals are handled based on a Gaussian white noise process with a mean of zero for each variance value. EMG signal variance is taken as a random variable that follows inverse gamma distribution, allowing the representation of noise superimposed onto this

  1. Comparison of boundary conditions from Global Chemistry Model (GCM) for regional air quality application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Yun Fat; Cheung, Hung Ming; Fu, Joshua; Huang, Kan

    2015-04-01

    Applying Global Chemistry Model (GCM) for regional Boundary Conditions (BC) has become a common practice to account for long-range transport of air pollutants in the regional air quality modeling. The limited domain model such as CMAQ and CAMx requires a global BC to prescribe the real-time chemical flux at the boundary grids, in order to give a realistic estimate of boundary impacts. Several GCMs have become available recently for use in regional air quality studies. In this study, three GCM models (i.e., GEOS-chem, CHASER and IFS-CB05 MACC provided by Seoul National University, Nagoya University and ECWMF, respectively) for the year of 2010 were applied in CMAQ for the East Asia domain under the framework of Model Inter-comparison Study Asia Phase III (MISC-Asia III) and task force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP) jointed experiments. Model performance evaluations on vertical profile and spatial distribution of O3 and PM2.5 have been made on those three models to better understand the model uncertainties from the boundary conditions. Individual analyses on various mega-cities (i.e., Hong Kong, Guangzhou, Taipei, Chongqing, Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Seoul and Tokyo) were also performed. Our analysis found that the monthly estimates of O3 for CHASER were a bit higher than GEOS-Chem and IFS-CB05 MACC, particularly in the northern part of China in the winter and spring, while the monthly averages of PM2.5 in GEOS-Chem were the lowest among the three models. The hourly maximum values of PM2.5 from those three models (GEOS-Chem, CHASER and IFS-CB05 MACC are 450, 321, 331 μg/m3, while the maximum O3 are 158, 212, 380 ppbv, respectively. Cross-comparison of CMAQ results from the 45 km resolution were also made to investigate the boundary impacts from the global GCMs. The results presented here provide insight on how global GCM selection influences the regional air quality simulation in East Asia.

  2. Structure functions and parton distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olness, F.; Tung, Wu-Ki

    1991-04-01

    Activities of the structure functions and parton distributions group is summarized. The impact of scheme-dependence of parton distributions (especially sea-quarks and gluons) on the quantitative formulation of the QCD parton model is highlighted. Recent progress on the global analysis of parton distributions is summarized. Issues on the proper use of the next-to-leading parton distributions are stressed

  3. BAYESIAN MODELS FOR SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELLING WITH ONLY-PRESENCE RECORDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartolo de Jesús Villar-Hernández

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available One of the central issues in ecology is the study of geographical distribution of species of flora and fauna through Species Distribution Models (SDM. Recently, scientific interest has focused on presence-only records. Two recent approaches have been proposed for this problem: a model based on maximum likelihood method (Maxlike and an inhomogeneous poisson process model (IPP. In this paper we discussed two bayesian approaches called MaxBayes and IPPBayes based on Maxlike and IPP model, respectively. To illustrate these proposals, we implemented two study examples: (1 both models were implemented on a simulated dataset, and (2 we modeled the potencial distribution of genus Dalea in the Tehuacan-Cuicatlán biosphere reserve with both models, the results was compared with that of Maxent. The results show that both models, MaxBayes and IPPBayes, are viable alternatives when species distribution are modeled with only-presence records. For simulated dataset, MaxBayes achieved prevalence estimation, even when the number of records was small. In the real dataset example, both models predict similar potential distributions like Maxent does. Â

  4. Model studies with a 3-d global CTM using ECMWF data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sundet, Jostein Kandal

    1997-12-31

    It has become evident during the last decades that the large-scale tropospheric distribution of chemical compounds is changing due to man-made emissions. These changes, in turn, lead to changes in the atmospheric oxidation capacity that may significantly affect the environment, such as global warming and increased acid rain. The main objective of this thesis was to use data from a meteorological weather prediction model to drive a global Chemical Tracer (or transport) Model (CTM), the Oslo CTM-2, where the data are generated at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). It is the kind of data that are taken from the IFS model that is the innovative part of this study. In contrast to other studies, the purpose of the IFS model run is to generate selected data instead of using data from the ECMWF archive. This enabled the extraction of fields useful for atmospheric chemistry studies. The thesis describes the CTM-2 model, presents the data from the IFS model and briefly introduces tropospheric chemistry. Experiments are run to verify the model. The following points for improvements of the model are pointed out: (1) clouds must be included in the photodissociation calculations, (2) better boundary value representing the stratosphere must be obtained for ozone and probably NO and HNO{sub 3} as well, (3) the surface deposition scheme for ozone must be improved, and (4) fluctuations in the chemistry were found and should be eliminated through assessing the fast cycling of OH and HO{sub 2}. Some issues for consideration by the ECMWF are also pointed out. 57 refs., 24 figs., 16 tabs.

  5. Bounding species distribution models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas J. STOHLGREN, Catherine S. JARNEVICH, Wayne E. ESAIAS,Jeffrey T. MORISETTE

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for “clamping” model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART and maximum entropy (Maxent models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5: 642–647, 2011].

  6. Bounding Species Distribution Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Jarnevich, Cahterine S.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Esaias, Wayne E.

    2011-01-01

    Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS) might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for "clamping" model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART) and maximum entropy (Maxent) models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5): 642-647, 2011].

  7. S-World: A high resolution global soil database for simulation modelling (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoorvogel, J. J.

    2013-12-01

    There is an increasing call for high resolution soil information at the global level. A good example for such a call is the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison carried out within AgMIP. While local studies can make use of surveying techniques to collect additional techniques this is practically impossible at the global level. It is therefore important to rely on legacy data like the Harmonized World Soil Database. Several efforts do exist that aim at the development of global gridded soil property databases. These estimates of the variation of soil properties can be used to assess e.g., global soil carbon stocks. However, they do not allow for simulation runs with e.g., crop growth simulation models as these models require a description of the entire pedon rather than a few soil properties. This study provides the required quantitative description of pedons at a 1 km resolution for simulation modelling. It uses the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) for the spatial distribution of soil types, the ISRIC-WISE soil profile database to derive information on soil properties per soil type, and a range of co-variables on topography, climate, and land cover to further disaggregate the available data. The methodology aims to take stock of these available data. The soil database is developed in five main steps. Step 1: All 148 soil types are ordered on the basis of their expected topographic position using e.g., drainage, salinization, and pedogenesis. Using the topographic ordering and combining the HWSD with a digital elevation model allows for the spatial disaggregation of the composite soil units. This results in a new soil map with homogeneous soil units. Step 2: The ranges of major soil properties for the topsoil and subsoil of each of the 148 soil types are derived from the ISRIC-WISE soil profile database. Step 3: A model of soil formation is developed that focuses on the basic conceptual question where we are within the range of a particular soil property

  8. Effects of cloudy/clear air mixing and droplet pH on sulfate aerosol formation in a coupled chemistry/climate global model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Molenkamp, C.R.; Atherton, C.A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Penner, J.E.; Walton, J.J. [Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences

    1996-10-01

    In this paper we will briefly describe our coupled ECHAM/GRANTOUR model, provide a detailed description of our atmospheric chemistry parameterizations, and discuss a couple of numerical experiments in which we explore the influence of assumed pH and rate of mixing between cloudy and clear air on aqueous sulfate formation and concentration. We have used our tropospheric chemistry and transport model, GRANTOUR, to estimate the life cycle and global distributions of many trace species. Recently, we have coupled GRANTOUR with the ECHAM global climate model, which provides several enhanced capabilities in the representation of aerosol interactions.

  9. An Instructional Development Model for Global Organizations: The GOaL Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hara, Noriko; Schwen, Thomas M.

    1999-01-01

    Presents an instructional development model, GOaL (Global Organization Localization), for use by global organizations. Topics include gaps in language, culture, and needs; decentralized processes; collaborative efforts; predetermined content; multiple perspectives; needs negotiation; learning within context; just-in-time training; and bilingual…

  10. Stability in distribution of a stochastic hybrid competitive Lotka–Volterra model with Lévy jumps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Yu; Yuan, Sanling

    2016-01-01

    Stability in distribution, implying the existence of the invariant probability measure, is an important measure of stochastic hybrid system. However, the effect of Lévy jumps on the stability in distribution is still unclear. In this paper, we consider a n-species competitive Lotka–Volterra model with Lévy jumps under regime-switching. First, we prove the existence of the global positive solution, obtain the upper and lower boundedness. Then, asymptotic stability in distribution as the main result of our paper is derived under some sufficient conditions. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to support our theoretical results and a brief discussion is given.

  11. Qualitative models of global warming amplifiers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milošević, U.; Bredeweg, B.; de Kleer, J.; Forbus, K.D.

    2010-01-01

    There is growing interest from ecological experts to create qualitative models of phenomena for which numerical information is sparse or missing. We present a number of successful models in the field of environmental science, namely, the domain of global warming. The motivation behind the effort is

  12. Global dynamics of a dengue epidemic mathematical model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cai Liming [Department of Mathematics, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000 (China); Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Academia Sinica, Beijing 100080 (China)], E-mail: lmcai06@yahoo.com.cn; Guo Shumin [Beijing Institute of Information Control, Beijing 100037 (China); Li, XueZhi [Department of Mathematics, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000 (China); Ghosh, Mini [School of Mathematics and Computer Application, Thapar University, Patiala 147004 (India)

    2009-11-30

    The paper investigates the global stability of a dengue epidemic model with saturation and bilinear incidence. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The stability of these two equilibria is controlled by the threshold number R{sub 0}. It is shown that if R{sub 0} is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R{sub 0} is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.

  13. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    The scope of the report is to present the results of the fourth year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  14. Distributed Model Predictive Control for Active Power Control of Wind Farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the active power control of a wind farm using the Distributed Model Predictive Controller (D- MPC) via dual decomposition. Different from the conventional centralized wind farm control, multiple objectives such as power reference tracking performance and wind turbine load can...... be considered to achieve a trade-off between them. Additionally, D- MPC is based on communication among the subsystems. Through the interaction among the neighboring subsystems, the global optimization could be achieved, which significantly reduces the computation burden. It is suitable for the modern large......-scale wind farm control....

  15. Development of a global 1-D chemically radiatively coupled model and an introduction to the development of a chemically coupled General Circulation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akiyoshi, H.

    1997-01-01

    A global one-dimensional, chemically and radiatively coupled model has been developed. The basic concept of the coupled model, definition of globally averaged zenith angles, the formulation of the model chemistry, radiation, the coupled processes, and profiles and diurnal variations of temperature and chemical species at a normal steady state are presented. Furthermore, a suddenly doubled CO 2 experiment and a Pinatubo aerosol increase experiment were performed with the model. The time scales of variations in ozone and temperature in the lower stratosphere of the coupled system in the doubled CO 2 experiment was long, due to a feedback process among ultra violet radiation, O(1D), NO y , NO x , and O 3 . From the Pinatubo aerosol experiment, a delay of maximum ozone decrease from the maximum aerosol loading is shown and discussed. Developments of 3-D chemical models with coupled processes are briefly described, and the ozone distribution from the first version of the 3-D model are presented. Chemical model development in National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) are briefly described. (author)

  16. Estimation of Global 1km-grid Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Part I: Developing Inputs and Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasai, T.; Murakami, K.; Kato, S.; Matsunaga, T.; Saigusa, N.; Hiraki, K.

    2015-12-01

    Global terrestrial carbon cycle largely depends on a spatial pattern in land cover type, which is heterogeneously-distributed over regional and global scales. However, most studies, which aimed at the estimation of carbon exchanges between ecosystem and atmosphere, remained within several tens of kilometers grid spatial resolution, and the results have not been enough to understand the detailed pattern of carbon exchanges based on ecological community. Improving the sophistication of spatial resolution is obviously necessary to enhance the accuracy of carbon exchanges. Moreover, the improvement may contribute to global warming awareness, policy makers and other social activities. In this study, we show global terrestrial carbon exchanges (net ecosystem production, net primary production, and gross primary production) with 1km-grid resolution. As methodology for computing the exchanges, we 1) developed a global 1km-grid climate and satellite dataset based on the approach in Setoyama and Sasai (2013); 2) used the satellite-driven biosphere model (Biosphere model integrating Eco-physiological And Mechanistic approaches using Satellite data: BEAMS) (Sasai et al., 2005, 2007, 2011); 3) simulated the carbon exchanges by using the new dataset and BEAMS by the use of a supercomputer that includes 1280 CPU and 320 GPGPU cores (GOSAT RCF of NIES). As a result, we could develop a global uniform system for realistically estimating terrestrial carbon exchange, and evaluate net ecosystem production in each community level; leading to obtain highly detailed understanding of terrestrial carbon exchanges.

  17. Hourly distributions of the diffuse fraction of global solar irradiation in Cordoba (Spain)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Posadillo, R.; Lopez Luque, R.

    2009-01-01

    Hourly global irradiations on tilted planes are required for dimensioning PV systems. However, for most sites, only global irradiations on a horizontal plane are available, and, given that to calculate the global irradiation on inclined planes the first step is to determine the diffuse component and this is not collected, we have studied the behaviour of the diffuse component on an hourly basis. Most parametrization models for the derivation of hourly diffuse irradiance from hourly global irradiance involve the clearness index, a parameter that implicitly includes solar altitude. The present paper has focused on the possibility of also including 'mean solar altitude α-bar' explicitly as a parameter in addition to the clearness index. Several analytical models are proposed, validated and compared here, using solar data collected on our station located in Cordoba (Spain)

  18. Global Distribution, Public Health and Clinical Impact of the Protozoan Pathogen Cryptosporidium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenza Putignani

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Cryptosporidium spp. are coccidians, oocysts-forming apicomplexan protozoa, which complete their life cycle both in humans and animals, through zoonotic and anthroponotic transmission, causing cryptosporidiosis. The global burden of this disease is still underascertained, due to a conundrum transmission modality, only partially unveiled, and on a plethora of detection systems still inadequate or only partially applied for worldwide surveillance. In children, cryptosporidiosis encumber is even less recorded and often misidentified due to physiological reasons such as early-age unpaired immunological response. Furthermore, malnutrition in underdeveloped countries or clinical underestimation of protozoan etiology in developed countries contribute to the underestimation of the worldwide burden. Principal key indicators of the parasite distribution were associated to environmental (e.g., geographic and temporal clusters, etc. and host determinants of the infection (e.g., age, immunological status, travels, community behaviours. The distribution was geographically mapped to provide an updated picture of the global parasite ecosystems. The present paper aims to provide, by a critical analysis of existing literature, a link between observational epidemiological records and new insights on public health, and diagnostic and clinical impact of cryptosporidiosis.

  19. Global atmospheric model for mercury including oxidation by bromine atoms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. D. Holmes

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Global models of atmospheric mercury generally assume that gas-phase OH and ozone are the main oxidants converting Hg0 to HgII and thus driving mercury deposition to ecosystems. However, thermodynamic considerations argue against the importance of these reactions. We demonstrate here the viability of atomic bromine (Br as an alternative Hg0 oxidant. We conduct a global 3-D simulation with the GEOS-Chem model assuming gas-phase Br to be the sole Hg0 oxidant (Hg + Br model and compare to the previous version of the model with OH and ozone as the sole oxidants (Hg + OH/O3 model. We specify global 3-D Br concentration fields based on our best understanding of tropospheric and stratospheric Br chemistry. In both the Hg + Br and Hg + OH/O3 models, we add an aqueous photochemical reduction of HgII in cloud to impose a tropospheric lifetime for mercury of 6.5 months against deposition, as needed to reconcile observed total gaseous mercury (TGM concentrations with current estimates of anthropogenic emissions. This added reduction would not be necessary in the Hg + Br model if we adjusted the Br oxidation kinetics downward within their range of uncertainty. We find that the Hg + Br and Hg + OH/O3 models are equally capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of TGM and its seasonal cycle at northern mid-latitudes. The Hg + Br model shows a steeper decline of TGM concentrations from the tropics to southern mid-latitudes. Only the Hg + Br model can reproduce the springtime depletion and summer rebound of TGM observed at polar sites; the snowpack component of GEOS-Chem suggests that 40% of HgII deposited to snow in the Arctic is transferred to the ocean and land reservoirs, amounting to a net deposition flux to the Arctic of 60 Mg a−1. Summertime events of depleted Hg0 at Antarctic sites due to subsidence are much better simulated by

  20. The Global Flood Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, P.; Huddelston, M.; Michel, G.; Thompson, S.; Heynert, K.; Pickering, C.; Abbott Donnelly, I.; Fewtrell, T.; Galy, H.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.; Weerts, A.; Nixon, S.; Davies, P.; Schiferli, D.

    2012-04-01

    Recently, a Global Flood Model (GFM) initiative has been proposed by Willis, UK Met Office, Esri, Deltares and IBM. The idea is to create a global community platform that enables better understanding of the complexities of flood risk assessment to better support the decisions, education and communication needed to mitigate flood risk. The GFM will provide tools for assessing the risk of floods, for devising mitigation strategies such as land-use changes and infrastructure improvements, and for enabling effective pre- and post-flood event response. The GFM combines humanitarian and commercial motives. It will benefit: - The public, seeking to preserve personal safety and property; - State and local governments, seeking to safeguard economic activity, and improve resilience; - NGOs, similarly seeking to respond proactively to flood events; - The insurance sector, seeking to understand and price flood risk; - Large corporations, seeking to protect global operations and supply chains. The GFM is an integrated and transparent set of modules, each composed of models and data. For each module, there are two core elements: a live "reference version" (a worked example) and a framework of specifications, which will allow development of alternative versions. In the future, users will be able to work with the reference version or substitute their own models and data. If these meet the specification for the relevant module, they will interoperate with the rest of the GFM. Some "crowd-sourced" modules could even be accredited and published to the wider GFM community. Our intent is to build on existing public, private and academic work, improve local adoption, and stimulate the development of multiple - but compatible - alternatives, so strengthening mankind's ability to manage flood impacts. The GFM is being developed and managed by a non-profit organization created for the purpose. The business model will be inspired from open source software (eg Linux): - for non-profit usage

  1. History, Structure and Agency in Global Health Governance Comment on "Global Health Governance Challenges 2016 - Are We Ready?"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Stephen; Benatar, Solomon R

    2016-08-29

    Ilona Kickbusch's thought provoking editorial is criticized in this commentary, partly because she fails to refer to previous critical work on the global conditions and policies that sustain inequality, poverty, poor health and damage to the biosphere and, as a result, she misreads global power and elides consideration of the fundamental historical structures of political and material power that shape agency in global health governance. We also doubt that global health can be improved through structures and processes of multilateralism that are premised on the continued reproduction of the ecologically myopic and socially unsustainable market civilization model of capitalist development that currently prevails in the world economy. This model drives net financial flows from poor to rich countries and from the poor to the affluent and super wealthy individuals. By contrast, we suggest that significant progress in global health requires a profound and socially just restructuring of global power, greater global solidarity and the "development of sustainability." © 2017 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

  2. A multistage framework for reliability-based distribution expansion planning considering distributed generations by a self-adaptive global-based harmony search algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shivaie, Mojtaba; Ameli, Mohammad T.; Sepasian, Mohammad S.; Weinsier, Philip D.; Vahidinasab, Vahid

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, the authors present a new multistage framework for reliability-based Distribution Expansion Planning (DEP) in which expansion options are a reinforcement and/or installation of substations, feeders, and Distributed Generations (DGs). The proposed framework takes into account not only costs associated with investment, maintenance, and operation, but also expected customer interruption cost in the optimization as four problem objectives. At the same time, operational restrictions, Kirchhoff's laws, radial structure limitation, voltage limits, and capital expenditure budget restriction are considered as problem constraints. The proposed model is a non-convex optimization problem having a non-linear, mixed-integer nature. Hence, a hybrid Self-adaptive Global-based Harmony Search Algorithm (SGHSA) and Optimal Power Flow (OPF) were used and followed by a fuzzy satisfying method in order to obtain the final optimal solution. The SGHSA is a recently developed optimization algorithm which imitates the music improvisation process. In this process, the harmonists improvise their instrument pitches, searching for the perfect state of harmony. The planning methodology was demonstrated on the 27-node, 13.8-kV test system in order to demonstrate the feasibility and capability of the proposed model. Simulation results illustrated the sufficiency and profitableness of the newly developed framework, when compared with other methods. - Highlights: • A new multistage framework is presented for reliability-based DEP problem. • In this paper, DGs are considered as an expansion option to increase the flexibility of the proposed model. • In this paper, effective factors of DEP problem are incorporated as a multi-objective model. • In this paper, three new algorithms HSA, IHSA and SGHSA are proposed. • Results obtained by the proposed SGHSA algorithm are better than others

  3. The ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) -for societal benefit -

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hato, M.; Tsu, H.; Tachikawa, T.; Abrams, M.; Bailey, B.

    2009-12-01

    The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) was developed jointly by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) of Japan and the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under the agreement of contribution to GEOSS and a public release was started on June 29th. ASTER GDEM can be downloaded to users from the Earth Remote Sensing Data Analysis Center (ERSDAC) of Japan and NASA’s Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC) free of charge. The ASTER instrument was built by METI and launched onboard NASA’s Terra spacecraft in December 1999. It has an along-track stereoscopic capability using its near infrared spectral band (NIR) and its nadir-viewing and backward-viewing telescopes to acquire stereo image data with a base-to-height ratio of 0.6. The ASTER GDEM was produced by applying newly-developed automated algorithm to more than 1.2 million NIR data Produced DEMs of all scene data was stacked after cloud masking and finally partitioned into 1° x 1°unit (called ‘tile’) data for convenience of distribution and handling by users. Before start of public distribution, ERSDAC and USGS/NASA together with many volunteers did validation and characterization by using a preliminary product of the ASTER GDEM. As a result of validation, METI and NASA evaluated that Version 1 of the ASTER GDEM has enough quality to be used as “experimental” or “research grade” data and consequently decided to release it. The ASTER GDEM covering almost all land area of from 83N to 83S on the earth represents as an important contribution to the global earth observation community. We will show our effort of development of ASTER GDEM and its accuracy and character.

  4. Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models; Ratios de Aprendizaje Tecnologico en Modelos Energeticos Globales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varela, M.

    2001-07-01

    The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this tend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy systems including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs.

  5. Global Modeling Study of the Bioavailable Atmospheric Iron Supply to the Global Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myriokefalitakis, S.; Krol, M. C.; van Noije, T.; Le Sager, P.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric deposition of trace constituents acts as a nutrient source to the open ocean and affect marine ecosystem. Dust is known as a major source of nutrients to the global ocean, but only a fraction of these nutrients is released in a bioavailable form that can be assimilated by the marine biota. Iron (Fe) is a key micronutrient that significantly modulates gross primary production in the High-Nutrient-Low-Chlorophyll (HNLC) oceans, where macronutrients like nitrate are abundant, but primary production is limited by Fe scarcity. The global atmospheric Fe cycle is here parameterized in the state-of-the-art global Earth System Model EC-Earth. The model takes into account the primary emissions of both insoluble and soluble Fe forms, associated with mineral dust and combustion aerosols. The impact of atmospheric acidity and organic ligands on mineral dissolution processes, is parameterized based on updated experimental and theoretical findings. Model results are also evaluated against available observations. Overall, the link between the labile Fe atmospheric deposition and atmospheric composition changes is here demonstrated and quantified. This work has been financed by the Marie-Curie H2020-MSCA-IF-2015 grant (ID 705652) ODEON (Online DEposition over OceaNs; modeling the effect of air pollution on ocean bio-geochemistry in an Earth System Model).

  6. Contention Modeling for Multithreaded Distributed Shared Memory Machines: The Cray XMT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Secchi, Simone; Tumeo, Antonino; Villa, Oreste

    2011-07-27

    Distributed Shared Memory (DSM) machines are a wide class of multi-processor computing systems where a large virtually-shared address space is mapped on a network of physically distributed memories. High memory latency and network contention are two of the main factors that limit performance scaling of such architectures. Modern high-performance computing DSM systems have evolved toward exploitation of massive hardware multi-threading and fine-grained memory hashing to tolerate irregular latencies, avoid network hot-spots and enable high scaling. In order to model the performance of such large-scale machines, parallel simulation has been proved to be a promising approach to achieve good accuracy in reasonable times. One of the most critical factors in solving the simulation speed-accuracy trade-off is network modeling. The Cray XMT is a massively multi-threaded supercomputing architecture that belongs to the DSM class, since it implements a globally-shared address space abstraction on top of a physically distributed memory substrate. In this paper, we discuss the development of a contention-aware network model intended to be integrated in a full-system XMT simulator. We start by measuring the effects of network contention in a 128-processor XMT machine and then investigate the trade-off that exists between simulation accuracy and speed, by comparing three network models which operate at different levels of accuracy. The comparison and model validation is performed by executing a string-matching algorithm on the full-system simulator and on the XMT, using three datasets that generate noticeably different contention patterns.

  7. Local and Global Function Model of the Liver

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Hesheng, E-mail: hesheng@umich.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Feng, Mary [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Jackson, Andrew [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Ten Haken, Randall K.; Lawrence, Theodore S. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Cao, Yue [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Department of Radiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To develop a local and global function model in the liver based on regional and organ function measurements to support individualized adaptive radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: A local and global model for liver function was developed to include both functional volume and the effect of functional variation of subunits. Adopting the assumption of parallel architecture in the liver, the global function was composed of a sum of local function probabilities of subunits, varying between 0 and 1. The model was fit to 59 datasets of liver regional and organ function measures from 23 patients obtained before, during, and 1 month after RT. The local function probabilities of subunits were modeled by a sigmoid function in relating to MRI-derived portal venous perfusion values. The global function was fitted to a logarithm of an indocyanine green retention rate at 15 minutes (an overall liver function measure). Cross-validation was performed by leave-m-out tests. The model was further evaluated by fitting to the data divided according to whether the patients had hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or not. Results: The liver function model showed that (1) a perfusion value of 68.6 mL/(100 g · min) yielded a local function probability of 0.5; (2) the probability reached 0.9 at a perfusion value of 98 mL/(100 g · min); and (3) at a probability of 0.03 [corresponding perfusion of 38 mL/(100 g · min)] or lower, the contribution to global function was lost. Cross-validations showed that the model parameters were stable. The model fitted to the data from the patients with HCC indicated that the same amount of portal venous perfusion was translated into less local function probability than in the patients with non-HCC tumors. Conclusions: The developed liver function model could provide a means to better assess individual and regional dose-responses of hepatic functions, and provide guidance for individualized treatment planning of RT.

  8. Global exponential stability of cellular neural networks with continuously distributed delays and impulses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Yixuan; Xiong Wanmin; Zhou Qiyuan; Xiao Bing; Yu Yuehua

    2006-01-01

    In this Letter cellular neural networks with continuously distributed delays and impulses are considered. Sufficient conditions for the existence and global exponential stability of a unique equilibrium point are established by using the fixed point theorem and differential inequality techniques. The results of this Letter are new and they complement previously known results

  9. Global thermal niche models of two European grasses show high invasion risks in Antarctica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pertierra, Luis R; Aragón, Pedro; Shaw, Justine D; Bergstrom, Dana M; Terauds, Aleks; Olalla-Tárraga, Miguel Ángel

    2017-07-01

    The two non-native grasses that have established long-term populations in Antarctica (Poa pratensis and Poa annua) were studied from a global multidimensional thermal niche perspective to address the biological invasion risk to Antarctica. These two species exhibit contrasting introduction histories and reproductive strategies and represent two referential case studies of biological invasion processes. We used a multistep process with a range of species distribution modelling techniques (ecological niche factor analysis, multidimensional envelopes, distance/entropy algorithms) together with a suite of thermoclimatic variables, to characterize the potential ranges of these species. Their native bioclimatic thermal envelopes in Eurasia, together with the different naturalized populations across continents, were compared next. The potential niche of P. pratensis was wider at the cold extremes; however, P. annua life history attributes enable it to be a more successful colonizer. We observe that particularly cold summers are a key aspect of the unique Antarctic environment. In consequence, ruderals such as P. annua can quickly expand under such harsh conditions, whereas the more stress-tolerant P. pratensis endures and persist through steady growth. Compiled data on human pressure at the Antarctic Peninsula allowed us to provide site-specific biosecurity risk indicators. We conclude that several areas across the region are vulnerable to invasions from these and other similar species. This can only be visualized in species distribution models (SDMs) when accounting for founder populations that reveal nonanalogous conditions. Results reinforce the need for strict management practices to minimize introductions. Furthermore, our novel set of temperature-based bioclimatic GIS layers for ice-free terrestrial Antarctica provide a mechanism for regional and global species distribution models to be built for other potentially invasive species. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Introducing a system of wind speed distributions for modeling properties of wind speed regimes around the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Christopher; Schindler, Dirk; Laible, Jessica; Buchholz, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Evaluation of statistical properties of 10,016 empirical wind speed distributions. • Analysis of the shape of empirical wind speed distributions by L-moment ratios. • Introduction of a new system of wind speed distributions (Swd). • Random forests classification of the most appropriate distribution. • Comprehensive goodness of Swd fit evaluation on a global scale. - Abstract: Accurate modeling of empirical wind speed distributions is a crucial step in the estimation of average wind turbine power output. For this purpose, the Weibull distribution has often been fitted to empirical wind speed distributions. However, the Weibull distribution has been found to be insufficient to reproduce many wind speed regimes existing around the world. Results from previous studies demonstrate that numerous one-component distributions as well as mixture distributions provide a better goodness-of-fit to empirical wind speed distributions than the Weibull distribution. Moreover, there is considerable interest to apply a single system of distributions that can be utilized to reproduce the large majority of near-surface wind speed regimes existing around the world. Therefore, a system of wind speed distributions was developed that is capable of reproducing the main characteristics of existing wind speed regimes. The proposed system consists of two one-component distributions (Kappa and Wakeby) and one mixture distribution (Burr-Generalized Extreme Value). A random forests classifier was trained in order to select the most appropriate of these three distributions for each of 10,016 globally distributed empirical wind speed distributions. The shape of the empirical wind speed distributions was described by L-moment ratios. The L-moment ratios were used as predictor variables for the random forests classifier. The goodness-of-fit of the system of wind speed distributions was evaluated according to eleven goodness-of-fit metrics, which were merged into one

  11. Distributions with given marginals and statistical modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Fortiana, Josep; Rodriguez-Lallena, José

    2002-01-01

    This book contains a selection of the papers presented at the meeting `Distributions with given marginals and statistical modelling', held in Barcelona (Spain), July 17-20, 2000. In 24 chapters, this book covers topics such as the theory of copulas and quasi-copulas, the theory and compatibility of distributions, models for survival distributions and other well-known distributions, time series, categorical models, definition and estimation of measures of dependence, monotonicity and stochastic ordering, shape and separability of distributions, hidden truncation models, diagonal families, orthogonal expansions, tests of independence, and goodness of fit assessment. These topics share the use and properties of distributions with given marginals, this being the fourth specialised text on this theme. The innovative aspect of the book is the inclusion of statistical aspects such as modelling, Bayesian statistics, estimation, and tests.

  12. Global and Regional Ecosystem Modeling: Databases of Model Drivers and Validation Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olson, R.J.

    2002-03-19

    Understanding global-scale ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions is important both as a scientific question and as the basis for making policy decisions. The confidence in regional models depends on how well the field data used to develop the model represent the region of interest, how well the environmental model driving variables (e.g., vegetation type, climate, and soils associated with a site used to parameterize ecosystem models) represent the region of interest, and how well regional model predictions agree with observed data for the region. To assess the accuracy of global model forecasts of terrestrial carbon cycling, two Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) workshops were held (December 1999 and April 2001). The workshops included 17 biogeochemical, satellite-driven, detailed process, and dynamic vegetation global model types. The approach was to run regional or global versions of the models for sites with net primary productivity (NPP) measurements (i.e., not fine-tuned for specific site conditions) and analyze the model-data differences. Extensive worldwide NPP data were assembled with model driver data, including vegetation, climate, and soils data, to perform the intercomparison. This report describes the compilation of NPP estimates for 2,523 sites and 5,164 0.5{sup o}-grid cells under the Global Primary Production Data Initiative (GPPDI) and the results of the EMDI review and outlier analysis that produced a refined set of NPP estimates and model driver data. The EMDI process resulted in 81 Class A sites, 933 Class B sites, and 3,855 Class C cells derived from the original synthesis of NPP measurements and associated driver data. Class A sites represent well-documented study sites that have complete aboveground and below ground NPP measurements. Class B sites represent more numerous ''extensive'' sites with less documentation and site-specific information available. Class C cells represent estimates of

  13. Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics

    KAUST Repository

    Jeong, Jaehong; Jun, Mikyoung; Genton, Marc G.

    2017-01-01

    Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture

  14. A simple model of global cascades on random networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, Duncan J.

    2002-04-01

    The origin of large but rare cascades that are triggered by small initial shocks is a phenomenon that manifests itself as diversely as cultural fads, collective action, the diffusion of norms and innovations, and cascading failures in infrastructure and organizational networks. This paper presents a possible explanation of this phenomenon in terms of a sparse, random network of interacting agents whose decisions are determined by the actions of their neighbors according to a simple threshold rule. Two regimes are identified in which the network is susceptible to very large cascadesherein called global cascadesthat occur very rarely. When cascade propagation is limited by the connectivity of the network, a power law distribution of cascade sizes is observed, analogous to the cluster size distribution in standard percolation theory and avalanches in self-organized criticality. But when the network is highly connected, cascade propagation is limited instead by the local stability of the nodes themselves, and the size distribution of cascades is bimodal, implying a more extreme kind of instability that is correspondingly harder to anticipate. In the first regime, where the distribution of network neighbors is highly skewed, it is found that the most connected nodes are far more likely than average nodes to trigger cascades, but not in the second regime. Finally, it is shown that heterogeneity plays an ambiguous role in determining a system's stability: increasingly heterogeneous thresholds make the system more vulnerable to global cascades; but an increasingly heterogeneous degree distribution makes it less vulnerable.

  15. Global distribution and climate forcing of marine organic aerosol: 1. Model improvements and evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Meskhidze

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Marine organic aerosol emissions have been implemented and evaluated within the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR's Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5 with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's 7-mode Modal Aerosol Module (MAM-7. Emissions of marine primary organic aerosols (POA, phytoplankton-produced isoprene- and monoterpenes-derived secondary organic aerosols (SOA and methane sulfonate (MS are shown to affect surface concentrations of organic aerosols in remote marine regions. Global emissions of submicron marine POA is estimated to be 7.9 and 9.4 Tg yr−1, for the Gantt et al. (2011 and Vignati et al. (2010 emission parameterizations, respectively. Marine sources of SOA and particulate MS (containing both sulfur and carbon atoms contribute an additional 0.2 and 5.1 Tg yr−1, respectively. Widespread areas over productive waters of the Northern Atlantic, Northern Pacific, and the Southern Ocean show marine-source submicron organic aerosol surface concentrations of 100 ng m−3, with values up to 400 ng m−3 over biologically productive areas. Comparison of long-term surface observations of water insoluble organic matter (WIOM with POA concentrations from the two emission parameterizations shows that despite revealed discrepancies (often more than a factor of 2, both Gantt et al. (2011 and Vignati et al. (2010 formulations are able to capture the magnitude of marine organic aerosol concentrations, with the Gantt et al. (2011 parameterization attaining better seasonality. Model simulations show that the mixing state of the marine POA can impact the surface number concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN. The largest increases (up to 20% in CCN (at a supersaturation (S of 0.2% number concentration are obtained over biologically productive ocean waters when marine organic aerosol is assumed to be externally mixed with sea-salt. Assuming

  16. A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frey-Buness, A.; Heimann, D.; Sausen, R.; Schumann, U.

    1994-01-01

    A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations is described. The procedure is based on the assumption that any regional climate is associated with a specific frequency distribution of classified large-scale weather situations. The frequency distributions are derived from multi-year episodes of low resolution global climate simulations. Highly resolved regional distributions of wind and temperature are calculated with a regional model for each class of large-scale weather situation. They are statistically evaluated by weighting them with the according climate-specific frequency. The procedure is exemplarily applied to the Alpine region for a global climate simulation of the present climate. (orig.)

  17. A voting-based star identification algorithm utilizing local and global distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Qiaoyun; Zhong, Xuyang; Sun, Junhua

    2018-03-01

    A novel star identification algorithm based on voting scheme is presented in this paper. In the proposed algorithm, the global distribution and local distribution of sensor stars are fully utilized, and the stratified voting scheme is adopted to obtain the candidates for sensor stars. The database optimization is employed to reduce its memory requirement and improve the robustness of the proposed algorithm. The simulation shows that the proposed algorithm exhibits 99.81% identification rate with 2-pixel standard deviations of positional noises and 0.322-Mv magnitude noises. Compared with two similar algorithms, the proposed algorithm is more robust towards noise, and the average identification time and required memory is less. Furthermore, the real sky test shows that the proposed algorithm performs well on the real star images.

  18. A global analysis of recent experimental results: How well determined are the parton distribution functions?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morfin, J.G.

    1990-08-01

    Following is a brief summary of the results of an analysis of experimental data performed to extract the patron distribution functions. In contrast to other global analyses, this study investigated how the fit results depend on: Experimental Systematic Errors; Kinematic Cuts on the Analyzed Data and Choice of Initial Functional Forms, with a prime goal being a close look at the range of low-x behavior allowed by data. This is crucial for predictions for the SSC/LHC, HERA, and even at Tevatron Collider energies. Since all details can be found in the just released Fermilab preprint Parton Distributions from a Global QCD Analysis of Deep Inelastic Scattering and Lepton-Pair Production by J. G. M. and Wu-Ki Tung, this summary will be only a brief outline of major results. 11 refs., 13 figs

  19. A coupled chemotaxis-fluid model: Global existence

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Jian-Guo; Lorz, Alexander

    2011-01-01

    We consider a model arising from biology, consisting of chemotaxis equations coupled to viscous incompressible fluid equations through transport and external forcing. Global existence of solutions to the Cauchy problem is investigated under certain conditions. Precisely, for the chemotaxis-Navier- Stokes system in two space dimensions, we obtain global existence for large data. In three space dimensions, we prove global existence of weak solutions for the chemotaxis-Stokes system with nonlinear diffusion for the cell density.© 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  20. A coupled chemotaxis-fluid model: Global existence

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Jian-Guo

    2011-09-01

    We consider a model arising from biology, consisting of chemotaxis equations coupled to viscous incompressible fluid equations through transport and external forcing. Global existence of solutions to the Cauchy problem is investigated under certain conditions. Precisely, for the chemotaxis-Navier- Stokes system in two space dimensions, we obtain global existence for large data. In three space dimensions, we prove global existence of weak solutions for the chemotaxis-Stokes system with nonlinear diffusion for the cell density.© 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  1. Hourly distributions of the diffuse fraction of global solar irradiation in Cordoba (Spain)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Posadillo, R.; Lopez Luque, R. [Grupo de Investigacion de Fisica para las Energias y Recursos Renovables, Dpto. de Fisica Aplicada/UCO, Edificio C2 Campus de Rabanales, 14071 Cordoba (Spain)

    2009-02-15

    Hourly global irradiations on tilted planes are required for dimensioning PV systems. However, for most sites, only global irradiations on a horizontal plane are available, and, given that to calculate the global irradiation on inclined planes the first step is to determine the diffuse component and this is not collected, we have studied the behaviour of the diffuse component on an hourly basis. Most parametrization models for the derivation of hourly diffuse irradiance from hourly global irradiance involve the clearness index, a parameter that implicitly includes solar altitude. The present paper has focused on the possibility of also including ''mean solar altitude anti {alpha}'' explicitly as a parameter in addition to the clearness index. Several analytical models are proposed, validated and compared here, using solar data collected on our station located in Cordoba (Spain). (author)

  2. Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, FA

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available -mail: fengelbrecht@csir.co.za Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model FA Engelbrecht1, 2*, WA Landman1, 3, CJ Engelbrecht4, S Landman5, MM Bopape1, B Roux6, JL McGregor7 and M Thatcher7 1 CSIR Natural... improvement. Keywords: multi-scale climate modelling, variable-resolution atmospheric model Introduction Dynamic climate models have become the primary tools for the projection of future climate change, at both the global and regional scales. Dynamic...

  3. Schwarz-Christoffel Conformal Mapping based Grid Generation for Global Oceanic Circulation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Shiming

    2015-04-01

    We propose new grid generation algorithms for global ocean general circulation models (OGCMs). Contrary to conventional, analytical forms based dipolar or tripolar grids, the new algorithm are based on Schwarz-Christoffel (SC) conformal mapping with prescribed boundary information. While dealing with the conventional grid design problem of pole relocation, it also addresses more advanced issues of computational efficiency and the new requirements on OGCM grids arisen from the recent trend of high-resolution and multi-scale modeling. The proposed grid generation algorithm could potentially achieve the alignment of grid lines to coastlines, enhanced spatial resolution in coastal regions, and easier computational load balance. Since the generated grids are still orthogonal curvilinear, they can be readily 10 utilized in existing Bryan-Cox-Semtner type ocean models. The proposed methodology can also be applied to the grid generation task for regional ocean modeling when complex land-ocean distribution is present.

  4. Dynamic models for distributed generation resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morched, A.S. [BPR Energie, Sherbrooke, PQ (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    Distributed resources can impact the performance of host power systems during both normal and abnormal system conditions. This PowerPoint presentation discussed the use of dynamic models for identifying potential interaction problems between interconnected systems. The models were designed to simulate steady state behaviour as well as transient responses to system disturbances. The distributed generators included directly coupled and electronically coupled generators. The directly coupled generator was driven by wind turbines. Simplified models of grid-side inverters, electronically coupled wind generators and doubly-fed induction generators (DFIGs) were presented. The responses of DFIGs to wind variations were evaluated. Synchronous machine and electronically coupled generator responses were compared. The system model components included load models, generators, protection systems, and system equivalents. Frequency responses to islanding events were reviewed. The study demonstrated that accurate simulations are needed to predict the impact of distributed generation resources on the performance of host systems. Advances in distributed generation technology have outpaced the development of models needed for integration studies. tabs., figs.

  5. 76 FR 21033 - International Business Machines (IBM), Sales and Distribution Business Unit, Global Sales...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-14

    ... DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Employment and Training Administration [TA-W-74,364] International Business Machines (IBM), Sales and Distribution Business Unit, Global Sales Solution Department, Off-Site Teleworker in Centerport, New York; Notice of Affirmative Determination Regarding Application for Reconsideration By application dated November 29, 2011,...

  6. Global Carbon-and-Conservation Models, Global Eco-States? Ecuador’s Yasuní-ITT Initiative and Governance Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conny Davidsen

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The “global carbon age” marks a structural change far beyond the economic realms of implementing carbon trade, affecting the fabric of global environmental governance and its actors. Carbon trade and conservation in the Global South have taken on various forms, and climate change mitigation efforts in light of continued rainforest deforestation are scrambling to establish effective approaches. Ecuador’s Yasuní-ITT Initiative proposes a new global carbon-and-conservation model in the Ecuadorian Amazon that leaves oil reserves of the Yasuní Ishpingo Tambococha Tiputini (ITT oil fields underground, in exchange for international compensation payments that would be based on voluntary contributions of governments and nongovernmental actors in an international conservation partnership and trust fund under the auspices of the United Nations Development Programme. This model suggests far-reaching consequences, as it introduces new global scales for the sharing and management of environmental costs within a framework of neoliberal cost internalization. The analysis in this paper uses the concept of the “ecological state” (Duit, 2008 as a theoretical point of departure to examine the trans-scalar implications of such a carbon-and-conservation model on global governance structures toward a “global ecological state” (or global eco-state.

  7. Revised methane emissions factors and spatially distributed annual carbon fluxes for global livestock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Julie; Asrar, Ghassem R; West, Tristram O

    2017-09-29

    Livestock play an important role in carbon cycling through consumption of biomass and emissions of methane. Recent research suggests that existing bottom-up inventories of livestock methane emissions in the US, such as those made using 2006 IPCC Tier 1 livestock emissions factors, are too low. This may be due to outdated information used to develop these emissions factors. In this study, we update information for cattle and swine by region, based on reported recent changes in animal body mass, feed quality and quantity, milk productivity, and management of animals and manure. We then use this updated information to calculate new livestock methane emissions factors for enteric fermentation in cattle, and for manure management in cattle and swine. Using the new emissions factors, we estimate global livestock emissions of 119.1 ± 18.2 Tg methane in 2011; this quantity is 11% greater than that obtained using the IPCC 2006 emissions factors, encompassing an 8.4% increase in enteric fermentation methane, a 36.7% increase in manure management methane, and notable variability among regions and sources. For example, revised manure management methane emissions for 2011 in the US increased by 71.8%. For years through 2013, we present (a) annual livestock methane emissions, (b) complete annual livestock carbon budgets, including carbon dioxide emissions, and (c) spatial distributions of livestock methane and other carbon fluxes, downscaled to 0.05 × 0.05 degree resolution. Our revised bottom-up estimates of global livestock methane emissions are comparable to recently reported top-down global estimates for recent years, and account for a significant part of the increase in annual methane emissions since 2007. Our results suggest that livestock methane emissions, while not the dominant overall source of global methane emissions, may be a major contributor to the observed annual emissions increases over the 2000s to 2010s. Differences at regional and local scales may help

  8. The global distribution of leaf chlorophyll content and seasonal controls on carbon uptake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croft, H.; Chen, J. M.; Luo, X.; Bartlett, P. A.; Staebler, R. M.; He, L.; Mo, G.; Luo, S.; Simic, A.; Arabian, J.; He, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Beringer, J.; Hutley, L. B.; Noland, T. L.; Arellano, P.; Stahl, C.; Homolová, L.; Bonal, D.; Malenovský, Z.; Yi, Q.; Amiri, R.

    2017-12-01

    Leaf chlorophyll (ChlLeaf) is crucial to biosphere-atmosphere exchanges of carbon and water, and the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Improving the accuracy of modelled photosynthetic carbon uptake is a central priority for understanding ecosystem response to a changing climate. A source of uncertainty within gross primary productivity (GPP) estimates is the failure to explicitly consider seasonal controls on leaf photosynthetic potential. Whilst the inclusion of ChlLeafinto carbon models has shown potential to provide a physiological constraint, progress has been hampered by the absence of a spatially-gridded, global chlorophyll product. Here, we present the first spatially-continuous, global view of terrestrial ChlLeaf, at weekly intervals. Satellite-derived ChlLeaf was modelled using a physically-based radiative transfer modelling approach, with a two stage model inversion method. 4-Scale and SAIL canopy models were first used to model leaf-level reflectance from ENIVSAT MERIS 300m satellite data. The PROSPECT leaf model was then used to derive ChlLeaf from the modelled leaf reflectance. This algorithm was validated using measured ChlLeaf data from 248 measurements within 26 field locations, covering six plant functional types (PFTs). Modelled results show very good relationships with measured data, particularly for deciduous broadleaf forests (R2 = 0.67; pmake an important step towards improving the accuracy of global carbon budgets.

  9. Including Remote Participants and Artifacts: Visual, Audio, and Tactile Modalities in an Ethnographic Study of Globally Distributed Engineers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørn, Pernille; Pederson, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we study how globally distributed Danish and Indian engineers co-construct and reconfigure a shared socio-technical collaborative place for global collaborative interaction: War Room meetings. We investigate the empirical case of War Room meetings based on three modalities in which ...

  10. Global direct pressures on biodiversity by large-scale metal mining: Spatial distribution and implications for conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murguía, Diego I; Bringezu, Stefan; Schaldach, Rüdiger

    2016-09-15

    Biodiversity loss is widely recognized as a serious global environmental change process. While large-scale metal mining activities do not belong to the top drivers of such change, these operations exert or may intensify pressures on biodiversity by adversely changing habitats, directly and indirectly, at local and regional scales. So far, analyses of global spatial dynamics of mining and its burden on biodiversity focused on the overlap between mines and protected areas or areas of high value for conservation. However, it is less clear how operating metal mines are globally exerting pressure on zones of different biodiversity richness; a similar gap exists for unmined but known mineral deposits. By using vascular plants' diversity as a proxy to quantify overall biodiversity, this study provides a first examination of the global spatial distribution of mines and deposits for five key metals across different biodiversity zones. The results indicate that mines and deposits are not randomly distributed, but concentrated within intermediate and high diversity zones, especially bauxite and silver. In contrast, iron, gold, and copper mines and deposits are closer to a more proportional distribution while showing a high concentration in the intermediate biodiversity zone. Considering the five metals together, 63% and 61% of available mines and deposits, respectively, are located in intermediate diversity zones, comprising 52% of the global land terrestrial surface. 23% of mines and 20% of ore deposits are located in areas of high plant diversity, covering 17% of the land. 13% of mines and 19% of deposits are in areas of low plant diversity, comprising 31% of the land surface. Thus, there seems to be potential for opening new mines in areas of low biodiversity in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Probabilistic models for neural populations that naturally capture global coupling and criticality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humplik, Jan; Tkačik, Gašper

    2017-09-01

    Advances in multi-unit recordings pave the way for statistical modeling of activity patterns in large neural populations. Recent studies have shown that the summed activity of all neurons strongly shapes the population response. A separate recent finding has been that neural populations also exhibit criticality, an anomalously large dynamic range for the probabilities of different population activity patterns. Motivated by these two observations, we introduce a class of probabilistic models which takes into account the prior knowledge that the neural population could be globally coupled and close to critical. These models consist of an energy function which parametrizes interactions between small groups of neurons, and an arbitrary positive, strictly increasing, and twice differentiable function which maps the energy of a population pattern to its probability. We show that: 1) augmenting a pairwise Ising model with a nonlinearity yields an accurate description of the activity of retinal ganglion cells which outperforms previous models based on the summed activity of neurons; 2) prior knowledge that the population is critical translates to prior expectations about the shape of the nonlinearity; 3) the nonlinearity admits an interpretation in terms of a continuous latent variable globally coupling the system whose distribution we can infer from data. Our method is independent of the underlying system's state space; hence, it can be applied to other systems such as natural scenes or amino acid sequences of proteins which are also known to exhibit criticality.

  12. Global marine plankton functional type biomass distributions: Phaeocystis spp.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Widdicombe

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The planktonic haptophyte Phaeocystis has been suggested to play a fundamental role in the global biogeochemical cycling of carbon and sulphur, but little is known about its global biomass distribution. We have collected global microscopy data of the genus Phaeocystis and converted abundance data to carbon biomass using species-specific carbon conversion factors. Microscopic counts of single-celled and colonial Phaeocystis were obtained both through the mining of online databases and by accepting direct submissions (both published and unpublished from Phaeocystis specialists. We recorded abundance data from a total of 1595 depth-resolved stations sampled between 1955–2009. The quality-controlled dataset includes 5057 counts of individual Phaeocystis cells resolved to species level and information regarding life-stages from 3526 samples. 83% of stations were located in the Northern Hemisphere while 17% were located in the Southern Hemisphere. Most data were located in the latitude range of 50–70° N. While the seasonal distribution of Northern Hemisphere data was well-balanced, Southern Hemisphere data was biased towards summer months. Mean species- and form-specific cell diameters were determined from previously published studies. Cell diameters were used to calculate the cellular biovolume of Phaeocystis cells, assuming spherical geometry. Cell biomass was calculated using a carbon conversion factor for prymnesiophytes. For colonies, the number of cells per colony was derived from the colony volume. Cell numbers were then converted to carbon concentrations. An estimation of colonial mucus carbon was included a posteriori, assuming a mean colony size for each species. Carbon content per cell ranged from 9 pg C cell−1 (single-celled Phaeocystis antarctica to 29 pg C cell−1 (colonial Phaeocystis globosa. Non-zero Phaeocystis cell biomasses (without mucus carbon range from 2.9 × 10−5 to 5.4 × 103 μg C l−1, with a mean of 45.7 μg C

  13. A global renewable energy system: A modelling exercise in ETSAP/TIAM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Føyn, Tullik Helene Ystanes; Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard; Balyk, Olexandr

    2011-01-01

    This paper aims to test the ETSAP2-TIAM global energy system model and to try out how far it can go towards a global 100% renewable energy system with the existing model database. This will show where limits in global resources are met and where limits in the data fed to the model until now are met...

  14. On global stability criterion for neural networks with discrete and distributed delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Ju H.

    2006-01-01

    Based on the Lyapunov functional stability analysis for differential equations and the linear matrix inequality (LMI) optimization approach, a new delay-dependent criterion for neural networks with discrete and distributed delays is derived to guarantee global asymptotic stability. The criterion is expressed in terms of LMIs, which can be solved easily by various convex optimization algorithms. Some numerical examples are given to show the effectiveness of proposed method

  15. Evaluating Global Aerosol Models and Aerosol and Water Vapor Properties Near Clouds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, David, D.; Ferrare, Richard, A.

    2011-07-06

    The 'Evaluating Global Aerosol Models and Aerosol and Water Vapor Properties Near Clouds' project focused extensively on the analysis and utilization of water vapor and aerosol profiles derived from the ARM Raman lidar at the Southern Great Plains ARM site. A wide range of different tasks were performed during this project, all of which improved quality of the data products derived from the lidar or advanced the understanding of atmospheric processes over the site. These activities included: upgrading the Raman lidar to improve its sensitivity; participating in field experiments to validate the lidar aerosol and water vapor retrievals; using the lidar aerosol profiles to evaluate the accuracy of the vertical distribution of aerosols in global aerosol model simulations; examining the correlation between relative humidity and aerosol extinction, and how these change, due to horizontal distance away from cumulus clouds; inferring boundary layer turbulence structure in convective boundary layers from the high-time-resolution lidar water vapor measurements; retrieving cumulus entrainment rates in boundary layer cumulus clouds; and participating in a field experiment that provided data to help validate both the entrainment rate retrievals and the turbulent profiles derived from lidar observations.

  16. Global Robust Stability of Switched Interval Neural Networks with Discrete and Distributed Time-Varying Delays of Neural Type

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huaiqin Wu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available By combing the theories of the switched systems and the interval neural networks, the mathematics model of the switched interval neural networks with discrete and distributed time-varying delays of neural type is presented. A set of the interval parameter uncertainty neural networks with discrete and distributed time-varying delays of neural type are used as the individual subsystem, and an arbitrary switching rule is assumed to coordinate the switching between these networks. By applying the augmented Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional approach and linear matrix inequality (LMI techniques, a delay-dependent criterion is achieved to ensure to such switched interval neural networks to be globally asymptotically robustly stable in terms of LMIs. The unknown gain matrix is determined by solving this delay-dependent LMIs. Finally, an illustrative example is given to demonstrate the validity of the theoretical results.

  17. Forward Modeling of Carbonate Proxy Data from Planktonic Foraminifera using Oxygen Isotope Tracers in a Global Ocean Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Gavin A.

    1999-01-01

    The distribution and variation of oxygen isotopes in seawater are calculated using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global ocean model. Simple ecological models are used to estimate the planktonic foraminiferal abundance as a function of depth, column temperature, season, light intensity, and density stratification. These models are combined to forward model isotopic signals recorded in calcareous ocean sediment. The sensitivity of the results to the changes in foraminiferal ecology, secondary calcification, and dissolution are also examined. Simulated present-day isotopic values for ecology relevant for multiple species compare well with core-top data. Hindcasts of sea surface temperature and salinity are made from time series of the modeled carbonate isotope values as the model climate changes. Paleoclimatic inferences from these carbonate isotope records are strongly affected by erroneous assumptions concerning the covariations of temperature, salinity, and delta (sup 18)O(sub w). Habitat-imposed biases are less important, although errors due to temperature-dependent abundances can be significant.

  18. Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into species distribution models alters forecasts of climate-mediated range shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crase, Beth; Liedloff, Adam; Vesk, Peter A; Fukuda, Yusuke; Wintle, Brendan A

    2014-08-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to forecast changes in the spatial distributions of species and communities in response to climate change. However, spatial autocorrelation (SA) is rarely accounted for in these models, despite its ubiquity in broad-scale ecological data. While spatial autocorrelation in model residuals is known to result in biased parameter estimates and the inflation of type I errors, the influence of unmodeled SA on species' range forecasts is poorly understood. Here we quantify how accounting for SA in SDMs influences the magnitude of range shift forecasts produced by SDMs for multiple climate change scenarios. SDMs were fitted to simulated data with a known autocorrelation structure, and to field observations of three mangrove communities from northern Australia displaying strong spatial autocorrelation. Three modeling approaches were implemented: environment-only models (most frequently applied in species' range forecasts), and two approaches that incorporate SA; autologistic models and residuals autocovariate (RAC) models. Differences in forecasts among modeling approaches and climate scenarios were quantified. While all model predictions at the current time closely matched that of the actual current distribution of the mangrove communities, under the climate change scenarios environment-only models forecast substantially greater range shifts than models incorporating SA. Furthermore, the magnitude of these differences intensified with increasing increments of climate change across the scenarios. When models do not account for SA, forecasts of species' range shifts indicate more extreme impacts of climate change, compared to models that explicitly account for SA. Therefore, where biological or population processes induce substantial autocorrelation in the distribution of organisms, and this is not modeled, model predictions will be inaccurate. These results have global importance for conservation efforts as inaccurate

  19. Modeled ground water age distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolfenden, Linda R.; Ginn, Timothy R.

    2009-01-01

    The age of ground water in any given sample is a distributed quantity representing distributed provenance (in space and time) of the water. Conventional analysis of tracers such as unstable isotopes or anthropogenic chemical species gives discrete or binary measures of the presence of water of a given age. Modeled ground water age distributions provide a continuous measure of contributions from different recharge sources to aquifers. A numerical solution of the ground water age equation of Ginn (1999) was tested both on a hypothetical simplified one-dimensional flow system and under real world conditions. Results from these simulations yield the first continuous distributions of ground water age using this model. Complete age distributions as a function of one and two space dimensions were obtained from both numerical experiments. Simulations in the test problem produced mean ages that were consistent with the expected value at the end of the model domain for all dispersivity values tested, although the mean ages for the two highest dispersivity values deviated slightly from the expected value. Mean ages in the dispersionless case also were consistent with the expected mean ages throughout the physical model domain. Simulations under real world conditions for three dispersivity values resulted in decreasing mean age with increasing dispersivity. This likely is a consequence of an edge effect. However, simulations for all three dispersivity values tested were mass balanced and stable demonstrating that the solution of the ground water age equation can provide estimates of water mass density distributions over age under real world conditions.

  20. Spatially Distributed, Coupled Modeling of Plant Growth, Nitrogen and Water Fluxes in an Alpine Catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, K.

    2001-12-01

    Carbon, water and nitrogen fluxes are closely coupled. They interact and have many feedbacks. Human interference, in particular through land use management and global change strongly modifies these fluxes. Increasing demands and conflicting interests result in an increasing need for regulation targeting different aspects of the system. Without being their main target, many of these measures directly affect water quantity, quality and availability. Improved management and planning of our water resources requires the development of integrated tools, in particular since interactions of the involved environmental and social systems often lead to unexpected or adverse results. To investigate the effect of plant growth, land use management and global change on water fluxes and quality, the PROcess oriented Modular EnvironmenT and Vegetation Model (PROMET-V) was developed. PROMET-V models the spatial patterns and temporal course of water, carbon and nitrogen fluxes using process oriented and mechanistic model components. The hydrological model is based on the Penman-Monteith approach, it uses a plant-physiological model to calculate the canopy conductance, and a multi-layer soil water model. Plant growth for different vegetation is modelled by calculating canopy photosynthesis, respiration, phenology and allocation. Plant growth and water fluxes are coupled directly through photosynthesis and transpiration. Many indirect feedbacks and interactions occur due to their mutual dependency upon leaf area, root distribution, water and nutrient availability for instance. PROMET-V calculates nitrogen fluxes and transformations. The time step used depends upon the modelled process and varies from 1 hour to 1 day. The kernel model is integrated in a raster GIS system for spatially distributed modelling. PROMET-V was tested in a pre-alpine landscape (Ammer river, 709 km**2, located in Southern Germany) which is characterized by small scale spatial heterogeneities of climate, soil and

  1. Global scale ionospheric irregularities associated with thunderstorm activity

    CERN Document Server

    Pulinets, S A

    2002-01-01

    The potential difference near 280 kV exists between ground and ionosphere. This potential difference is generated by thunderstorm discharges all over the world, and return current closes the circuit in the areas of fair weather (so-called fair weather current). The model calculations and experimental measurements clearly demonstrate non-uniform latitude-longitude distribution of electric field within the atmosphere. The recent calculations show that the strong large scale vertical atmospheric electric field can penetrate into the ionosphere and create large scale irregularities of the electron concentration. To check this the global distributions of thunderstorm activity obtained with the satellite monitoring for different seasons were compared with the global distributions of ionosphere critical frequency (which is equivalent to peak electron concentration) obtained with the help of satellite topside sounding. The similarity of the obtained global distributions clearly demonstrates the effects of thunderstor...

  2. The Effects of Time Lag and Cure Rate on the Global Dynamics of HIV-1 Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigar Ali

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this research article, a new mathematical model of delayed differential equations is developed which discusses the interaction among CD4 T cells, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV, and recombinant virus with cure rate. The model has two distributed intracellular delays. These delays denote the time needed for the infection of a cell. The dynamics of the model are completely described by the basic reproduction numbers represented by R0, R1, and R2. It is shown that if R0<1, then the infection-free equilibrium is locally as well as globally stable. Similarly, it is proved that the recombinant absent equilibrium is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable if 1

  3. New trends in species distribution modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Graham, Catherine H.; Pearman, Peter B.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2010-01-01

    Species distribution modelling has its origin in the late 1970s when computing capacity was limited. Early work in the field concentrated mostly on the development of methods to model effectively the shape of a species' response to environmental gradients (Austin 1987, Austin et al. 1990). The methodology and its framework were summarized in reviews 10–15 yr ago (Franklin 1995, Guisan and Zimmermann 2000), and these syntheses are still widely used as reference landmarks in the current distribution modelling literature. However, enormous advancements have occurred over the last decade, with hundreds – if not thousands – of publications on species distribution model (SDM) methodologies and their application to a broad set of conservation, ecological and evolutionary questions. With this special issue, originating from the third of a set of specialized SDM workshops (2008 Riederalp) entitled 'The Utility of Species Distribution Models as Tools for Conservation Ecology', we reflect on current trends and the progress achieved over the last decade.

  4. Using Models to Inform Policy: Insights from Modeling the Complexities of Global Polio Eradication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Kimberly M.

    Drawing on over 20 years of experience modeling risks in complex systems, this talk will challenge SBP participants to develop models that provide timely and useful answers to critical policy questions when decision makers need them. The talk will include reflections on the opportunities and challenges associated with developing integrated models for complex problems and communicating their results effectively. Dr. Thompson will focus the talk largely on collaborative modeling related to global polio eradication and the application of system dynamics tools. After successful global eradication of wild polioviruses, live polioviruses will still present risks that could potentially lead to paralytic polio cases. This talk will present the insights of efforts to use integrated dynamic, probabilistic risk, decision, and economic models to address critical policy questions related to managing global polio risks. Using a dynamic disease transmission model combined with probabilistic model inputs that characterize uncertainty for a stratified world to account for variability, we find that global health leaders will face some difficult choices, but that they can take actions that will manage the risks effectively. The talk will emphasize the need for true collaboration between modelers and subject matter experts, and the importance of working with decision makers as partners to ensure the development of useful models that actually get used.

  5. Global warming description using Daisyworld model with greenhouse gases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, Susana L D; Savi, Marcelo A; Viola, Flavio M; Leiroz, Albino J K

    2014-11-01

    Daisyworld is an archetypal model of the earth that is able to describe the global regulation that can emerge from the interaction between life and environment. This article proposes a model based on the original Daisyworld considering greenhouse gases emission and absorption, allowing the description of the global warming phenomenon. Global and local analyses are discussed evaluating the influence of greenhouse gases in the planet dynamics. Numerical simulations are carried out showing the general qualitative behavior of the Daisyworld for different scenarios that includes solar luminosity variations and greenhouse gases effect. Nonlinear dynamics perspective is of concern discussing a way that helps the comprehension of the global warming phenomenon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Data-driven modeling and real-time distributed control for energy efficient manufacturing systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zou, Jing; Chang, Qing; Arinez, Jorge; Xiao, Guoxian

    2017-01-01

    As manufacturers face the challenges of increasing global competition and energy saving requirements, it is imperative to seek out opportunities to reduce energy waste and overall cost. In this paper, a novel data-driven stochastic manufacturing system modeling method is proposed to identify and predict energy saving opportunities and their impact on production. A real-time distributed feedback production control policy, which integrates the current and predicted system performance, is established to improve the overall profit and energy efficiency. A case study is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control policy. - Highlights: • A data-driven stochastic manufacturing system model is proposed. • Real-time system performance and energy saving opportunity identification method is developed. • Prediction method for future potential system performance and energy saving opportunity is developed. • A real-time distributed feedback control policy is established to improve energy efficiency and overall system profit.

  7. Evaluation and intercomparison of three-dimensional global marine carbon cycle models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caldeira, K., LLNL

    1998-07-01

    The addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere from fossil fuel burning and deforestation has profound implications for the future of the earth`s climate and hence for humankind itself. Society is looking toward the community of environmental scientists to predict the consequences of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide so that sound input can be provided to economists, environmental engineers, and, ultimately, policy makers. Environmental scientists have responded to this challenge through the creation of several ambitious, highly-coordinated programs, each focused on a different aspect of the climate system. Recognizing that numerical models, be they relatively simple statistical-empirical models or highly complex process-oriented models, are the only means for predicting the future of the climate system, all of these programs include the development of accurate, predictive models as a central goal. The Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) is one such program, and was built on the well-founded premise that biological, chemical and physical oceanographic processes have a profound influence on the C0{sub 2} content of the atmosphere. The, cap-stone, phase of JGOFS, the Synthesis and Modeling Project (SMP), is charged with the development of models that can be used in the prediction of future air-sea partitioning of C0{sub 2}. JGOFS, particularly the SMP phase, has a number of interim goals as well, including the determination of fluxes and inventories of carbon in the modern ocean that air germane to the air-sea partitioning of C0{sub 2}. Models have a role to play here too, because many of these fluxes and inventories, such as the distributions of anthropogenic dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), new primary production and aphotic zone remineralization, while not amenable to direct observation on the large scale, can be determined using a variety of modeling approaches (Siegenthaler and Oeschger, 1987; Maier-Reimer and Hasselman, 1987, Bacastow and Maier

  8. Evaluation of the New Dynamic Global Vegetation Model in CAS-ESM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jiawen; Zeng, Xiaodong; Zhang, Minghua; Dai, Yongjiu; Ji, Duoying; Li, Fang; Zhang, Qian; Zhang, He; Song, Xiang

    2018-06-01

    In the past several decades, dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have been the most widely used and appropriate tool at the global scale to investigate vegetation-climate interactions. At the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, a new version of DGVM (IAP-DGVM) has been developed and coupled to the Common Land Model (CoLM) within the framework of the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Earth System Model (CAS-ESM). This work reports the performance of IAP-DGVM through comparisons with that of the default DGVM of CoLM (CoLM-DGVM) and observations. With respect to CoLMDGVM, IAP-DGVM simulated fewer tropical trees, more "needleleaf evergreen boreal tree" and "broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub", and a better representation of grasses. These contributed to a more realistic vegetation distribution in IAP-DGVM, including spatial patterns, total areas, and compositions. Moreover, IAP-DGVM also produced more accurate carbon fluxes than CoLM-DGVM when compared with observational estimates. Gross primary productivity and net primary production in IAP-DGVM were in better agreement with observations than those of CoLM-DGVM, and the tropical pattern of fire carbon emissions in IAP-DGVM was much more consistent with the observation than that in CoLM-DGVM. The leaf area index simulated by IAP-DGVM was closer to the observation than that of CoLM-DGVM; however, both simulated values about twice as large as in the observation. This evaluation provides valuable information for the application of CAS-ESM, as well as for other model communities in terms of a comparative benchmark.

  9. Collective motions of globally coupled oscillators and some probability distributions on circle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaćimović, Vladimir [Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Montenegro, Cetinjski put, bb., 81000 Podgorica (Montenegro); Crnkić, Aladin, E-mail: aladin.crnkic@hotmail.com [Faculty of Technical Engineering, University of Bihać, Ljubijankićeva, bb., 77000 Bihać, Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

    2017-06-28

    In 2010 Kato and Jones described a new family of probability distributions on circle, obtained as Möbius transformation of von Mises distribution. We present the model demonstrating that these distributions appear naturally in study of populations of coupled oscillators. We use this opportunity to point out certain relations between Directional Statistics and collective motion of coupled oscillators. - Highlights: • We specify probability distributions on circle that arise in Kuramoto model. • We study how the mean-field coupling affects the shape of distribution of phases. • We discuss potential applications in some experiments on cell cycle. • We apply Directional Statistics to study collective dynamics of coupled oscillators.

  10. Global qualitative analysis of a quartic ecological model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broer, Hendrik; Gaiko, Valery A.

    2010-01-01

    in this paper we complete the global qualitative analysis of a quartic ecological model. In particular, studying global bifurcations of singular points and limit cycles, we prove that the corresponding dynamical system has at most two limit cycles. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Deterministic Properties of Serially Connected Distributed Lag Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Nowak

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Distributed lag models are an important tool in modeling dynamic systems in economics. In the analysis of composite forms of such models, the component models are ordered in parallel (with the same independent variable and/or in series (where the independent variable is also the dependent variable in the preceding model. This paper presents an analysis of certain deterministic properties of composite distributed lag models composed of component distributed lag models arranged in sequence, and their asymptotic properties in particular. The models considered are in discrete form. Even though the paper focuses on deterministic properties of distributed lag models, the derivations are based on analytical tools commonly used in probability theory such as probability distributions and the central limit theorem. (original abstract

  12. What can'(t) we do with global flood risk models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P.; Jongman, B.; Salamon, P.; Simpson, A.; Bates, P. D.; de Groeve, T.; Muis, S.; Coughlan, E.; Rudari, R.; Trigg, M. A.; Winsemius, H.

    2015-12-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward, P.J. et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742.

  13. Combined discriminative global and generative local models for visual tracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Liujun; Zhao, Qingjie; Chen, Yanming; Lv, Peng

    2016-03-01

    It is a challenging task to develop an effective visual tracking algorithm due to factors such as pose variation, rotation, and so on. Combined discriminative global and generative local appearance models are proposed to address this problem. Specifically, we develop a compact global object representation by extracting the low-frequency coefficients of the color and texture of the object based on two-dimensional discrete cosine transform. Then, with the global appearance representation, we learn a discriminative metric classifier in an online fashion to differentiate the target object from its background, which is very important to robustly indicate the changes in appearance. Second, we develop a new generative local model that exploits the scale invariant feature transform and its spatial geometric information. To make use of the advantages of the global discriminative model and the generative local model, we incorporate them into Bayesian inference framework. In this framework, the complementary models help the tracker locate the target more accurately. Furthermore, we use different mechanisms to update global and local templates to capture appearance changes. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach performs favorably against state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy.

  14. HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM): Global

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and U.S. Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) 3-day, daily forecast at approximately 9-km (1/12-degree)...

  15. Building an Ensemble Seismic Hazard Model for the Magnitude Distribution by Using Alternative Bayesian Implementations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taroni, M.; Selva, J.

    2017-12-01

    In this work we show how we built an ensemble seismic hazard model for the magnitude distribution for the TSUMAPS-NEAM EU project (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/). The considered source area includes the whole NEAM region (North East Atlantic, Mediterranean and connected seas). We build our models by using the catalogs (EMEC and ISC), their completeness and the regionalization provided by the project. We developed four alternative implementations of a Bayesian model, considering tapered or truncated Gutenberg-Richter distributions, and fixed or variable b-value. The frequency size distribution is based on the Weichert formulation. This allows for simultaneously assessing all the frequency-size distribution parameters (a-value, b-value, and corner magnitude), using multiple completeness periods for the different magnitudes. With respect to previous studies, we introduce the tapered Pareto distribution (in addition to the classical truncated Pareto), and we build a novel approach to quantify the prior distribution. For each alternative implementation, we set the prior distributions using the global seismic data grouped according to the different types of tectonic setting, and assigned them to the related regions. The estimation is based on the complete (not declustered) local catalog in each region. Using the complete catalog also allows us to consider foreshocks and aftershocks in the seismic rate computation: the Poissonicity of the tsunami events (and similarly the exceedances of the PGA) will be insured by the Le Cam's theorem. This Bayesian approach provides robust estimations also in the zones where few events are available, but also leaves us the possibility to explore the uncertainty associated with the estimation of the magnitude distribution parameters (e.g. with the classical Metropolis-Hastings Monte Carlo method). Finally we merge all the models with their uncertainty to create the ensemble model that represents our knowledge of the seismicity in the

  16. MODELING PARTICLE SIZE DISTRIBUTION IN HETEROGENEOUS POLYMERIZATION SYSTEMS USING MULTIMODAL LOGNORMAL FUNCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Ferrari

    Full Text Available Abstract This work evaluates the usage of the multimodal lognormal function to describe Particle Size Distributions (PSD of emulsion and suspension polymerization processes, including continuous reactions with particle re-nucleation leading to complex multimodal PSDs. A global optimization algorithm, namely Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO, was used for parameter estimation of the proposed model, minimizing the objective function defined by the mean squared errors. Statistical evaluation of the results indicated that the multimodal lognormal function could describe distinctive features of different types of PSDs with accuracy and consistency.

  17. Large-scale distribution patterns of mangrove nematodes: A global meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brustolin, Marco C; Nagelkerken, Ivan; Fonseca, Gustavo

    2018-05-01

    Mangroves harbor diverse invertebrate communities, suggesting that macroecological distribution patterns of habitat-forming foundation species drive the associated faunal distribution. Whether these are driven by mangrove biogeography is still ambiguous. For small-bodied taxa, local factors and landscape metrics might be as important as macroecology. We performed a meta-analysis to address the following questions: (1) can richness of mangrove trees explain macroecological patterns of nematode richness? and (2) do local landscape attributes have equal or higher importance than biogeography in structuring nematode richness? Mangrove areas of Caribbean-Southwest Atlantic, Western Indian, Central Indo-Pacific, and Southwest Pacific biogeographic regions. We used random-effects meta-analyses based on natural logarithm of the response ratio (lnRR) to assess the importance of macroecology (i.e., biogeographic regions, latitude, longitude), local factors (i.e., aboveground mangrove biomass and tree richness), and landscape metrics (forest area and shape) in structuring nematode richness from 34 mangroves sites around the world. Latitude, mangrove forest area, and forest shape index explained 19% of the heterogeneity across studies. Richness was higher at low latitudes, closer to the equator. At local scales, richness increased slightly with landscape complexity and decreased with forest shape index. Our results contrast with biogeographic diversity patterns of mangrove-associated taxa. Global-scale nematode diversity may have evolved independently of mangrove tree richness, and diversity of small-bodied metazoans is probably more closely driven by latitude and associated climates, rather than local, landscape, or global biogeographic patterns.

  18. An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 2: Applications and assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Hanasaki

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available To assess global water resources from the perspective of subannual variation in water availability and water use, an integrated water resources model was developed. In a companion report, we presented the global meteorological forcing input used to drive the model and six modules, namely, the land surface hydrology module, the river routing module, the crop growth module, the reservoir operation module, the environmental flow requirement module, and the anthropogenic withdrawal module. Here, we present the results of the model application and global water resources assessments. First, the timing and volume of simulated agriculture water use were examined because agricultural use composes approximately 85% of total consumptive water withdrawal in the world. The estimated crop calendar showed good agreement with earlier reports for wheat, maize, and rice in major countries of production. In major countries, the error in the planting date was ±1 mo, but there were some exceptional cases. The estimated irrigation water withdrawal also showed fair agreement with country statistics, but tended to be underestimated in countries in the Asian monsoon region. The results indicate the validity of the model and the input meteorological forcing because site-specific parameter tuning was not used in the series of simulations. Finally, global water resources were assessed on a subannual basis using a newly devised index. This index located water-stressed regions that were undetected in earlier studies. These regions, which are indicated by a gap in the subannual distribution of water availability and water use, include the Sahel, the Asian monsoon region, and southern Africa. The simulation results show that the reservoir operations of major reservoirs (>1 km3 and the allocation of environmental flow requirements can alter the population under high water stress by approximately −11% to +5% globally. The integrated model is applicable to

  19. Classification and global distribution of ocean precipitation types based on satellite passive microwave signatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gautam, Nitin

    The main objectives of this thesis are to develop a robust statistical method for the classification of ocean precipitation based on physical properties to which the SSM/I is sensitive and to examine how these properties vary globally and seasonally. A two step approach is adopted for the classification of oceanic precipitation classes from multispectral SSM/I data: (1)we subjectively define precipitation classes using a priori information about the precipitating system and its possible distinct signature on SSM/I data such as scattering by ice particles aloft in the precipitating cloud, emission by liquid rain water below freezing level, the difference of polarization at 19 GHz-an indirect measure of optical depth, etc.; (2)we then develop an objective classification scheme which is found to reproduce the subjective classification with high accuracy. This hybrid strategy allows us to use the characteristics of the data to define and encode classes and helps retain the physical interpretation of classes. The classification methods based on k-nearest neighbor and neural network are developed to objectively classify six precipitation classes. It is found that the classification method based neural network yields high accuracy for all precipitation classes. An inversion method based on minimum variance approach was used to retrieve gross microphysical properties of these precipitation classes such as column integrated liquid water path, column integrated ice water path, and column integrated min water path. This classification method is then applied to 2 years (1991-92) of SSM/I data to examine and document the seasonal and global distribution of precipitation frequency corresponding to each of these objectively defined six classes. The characteristics of the distribution are found to be consistent with assumptions used in defining these six precipitation classes and also with well known climatological patterns of precipitation regions. The seasonal and global

  20. Structuring energy supply and demand networks in a general equilibrium model to simulate global warming control strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, S.; Veselka, T.D.; Cirillo, R.R.

    1991-01-01

    Global warming control strategies which mandate stringent caps on emissions of greenhouse forcing gases can substantially alter a country's demand, production, and imports of energy products. Although there is a large degree of uncertainty when attempting to estimate the potential impact of these strategies, insights into the problem can be acquired through computer model simulations. This paper presents one method of structuring a general equilibrium model, the ENergy and Power Evaluation Program/Global Climate Change (ENPEP/GCC), to simulate changes in a country's energy supply and demand balance in response to global warming control strategies. The equilibrium model presented in this study is based on the principle of decomposition, whereby a large complex problem is divided into a number of smaller submodules. Submodules simulate energy activities and conversion processes such as electricity production. These submodules are linked together to form an energy supply and demand network. Linkages identify energy and fuel flows among various activities. Since global warming control strategies can have wide reaching effects, a complex network was constructed. The network represents all energy production, conversion, transportation, distribution, and utilization activities. The structure of the network depicts interdependencies within and across economic sectors and was constructed such that energy prices and demand responses can be simulated. Global warming control alternatives represented in the network include: (1) conservation measures through increased efficiency; and (2) substitution of fuels that have high greenhouse gas emission rates with fuels that have lower emission rates. 6 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs

  1. A hydrological emulator for global applications - HE v1.0.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yaling; Hejazi, Mohamad; Li, Hongyi; Zhang, Xuesong; Leng, Guoyong

    2018-03-01

    While global hydrological models (GHMs) are very useful in exploring water resources and interactions between the Earth and human systems, their use often requires numerous model inputs, complex model calibration, and high computation costs. To overcome these challenges, we construct an efficient open-source and ready-to-use hydrological emulator (HE) that can mimic complex GHMs at a range of spatial scales (e.g., basin, region, globe). More specifically, we construct both a lumped and a distributed scheme of the HE based on the monthly abcd model to explore the tradeoff between computational cost and model fidelity. Model predictability and computational efficiency are evaluated in simulating global runoff from 1971 to 2010 with both the lumped and distributed schemes. The results are compared against the runoff product from the widely used Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Our evaluation indicates that the lumped and distributed schemes present comparable results regarding annual total quantity, spatial pattern, and temporal variation of the major water fluxes (e.g., total runoff, evapotranspiration) across the global 235 basins (e.g., correlation coefficient r between the annual total runoff from either of these two schemes and the VIC is > 0.96), except for several cold (e.g., Arctic, interior Tibet), dry (e.g., North Africa) and mountainous (e.g., Argentina) regions. Compared against the monthly total runoff product from the VIC (aggregated from daily runoff), the global mean Kling-Gupta efficiencies are 0.75 and 0.79 for the lumped and distributed schemes, respectively, with the distributed scheme better capturing spatial heterogeneity. Notably, the computation efficiency of the lumped scheme is 2 orders of magnitude higher than the distributed one and 7 orders more efficient than the VIC model. A case study of uncertainty analysis for the world's 16 basins with top annual streamflow is conducted using 100 000 model simulations, and it demonstrates

  2. Increasing parameter certainty and data utility through multi-objective calibration of a spatially distributed temperature and solute model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Bandaragoda

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available To support the goal of distributed hydrologic and instream model predictions based on physical processes, we explore multi-dimensional parameterization determined by a broad set of observations. We present a systematic approach to using various data types at spatially distributed locations to decrease parameter bounds sampled within calibration algorithms that ultimately provide information regarding the extent of individual processes represented within the model structure. Through the use of a simulation matrix, parameter sets are first locally optimized by fitting the respective data at one or two locations and then the best results are selected to resolve which parameter sets perform best at all locations, or globally. This approach is illustrated using the Two-Zone Temperature and Solute (TZTS model for a case study in the Virgin River, Utah, USA, where temperature and solute tracer data were collected at multiple locations and zones within the river that represent the fate and transport of both heat and solute through the study reach. The result was a narrowed parameter space and increased parameter certainty which, based on our results, would not have been as successful if only single objective algorithms were used. We also found that the global optimum is best defined by multiple spatially distributed local optima, which supports the hypothesis that there is a discrete and narrowly bounded parameter range that represents the processes controlling the dominant hydrologic responses. Further, we illustrate that the optimization process itself can be used to determine which observed responses and locations are most useful for estimating the parameters that result in a global fit to guide future data collection efforts.

  3. Automated parameter tuning applied to sea ice in a global climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roach, Lettie A.; Tett, Simon F. B.; Mineter, Michael J.; Yamazaki, Kuniko; Rae, Cameron D.

    2018-01-01

    This study investigates the hypothesis that a significant portion of spread in climate model projections of sea ice is due to poorly-constrained model parameters. New automated methods for optimization are applied to historical sea ice in a global coupled climate model (HadCM3) in order to calculate the combination of parameters required to reduce the difference between simulation and observations to within the range of model noise. The optimized parameters result in a simulated sea-ice time series which is more consistent with Arctic observations throughout the satellite record (1980-present), particularly in the September minimum, than the standard configuration of HadCM3. Divergence from observed Antarctic trends and mean regional sea ice distribution reflects broader structural uncertainty in the climate model. We also find that the optimized parameters do not cause adverse effects on the model climatology. This simple approach provides evidence for the contribution of parameter uncertainty to spread in sea ice extent trends and could be customized to investigate uncertainties in other climate variables.

  4. CracidMex1: a comprehensive database of global occurrences of cracids (Aves, Galliformes with distribution in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonzalo Pinilla-Buitrago

    2014-06-01

    comprehensive research effort to compile current, available global geographic records for a group of cracids. The database can now be improved by continuous revision and addition of new records. The CracidMex1 database will provide high quality input data that could be used to generate species distribution models, to assess temporal changes in species distributions, to identify priority areas for research and conservation, and in the definition of management strategies for this bird group. This compilation exercise could be replicated for other cracid groups or regions to attain a better knowledge of the global occurrences of the species in this vulnerable bird family.

  5. Setting up a hydrological model based on global data for the Ayeyarwady basin in Myanmar

    Science.gov (United States)

    ten Velden, Corine; Sloff, Kees; Nauta, Tjitte

    2017-04-01

    The use of global datasets in local hydrological modelling can be of great value. It opens up the possibility to include data for areas where local data is not or only sparsely available. In hydrological modelling the existence of both static physical data such as elevation and land use, and dynamic meteorological data such as precipitation and temperature, is essential for setting up a hydrological model, but often such data is difficult to obtain at the local level. For the Ayeyarwady catchment in Myanmar a distributed hydrological model (Wflow: https://github.com/openstreams/wflow) was set up with only global datasets, as part of a water resources study. Myanmar is an emerging economy, which has only recently become more receptive to foreign influences. It has a very limited hydrometeorological measurement network, with large spatial and temporal gaps, and data that are of uncertain quality and difficult to obtain. The hydrological model was thus set up based on resampled versions of the SRTM digital elevation model, the GlobCover land cover dataset and the HWSD soil dataset. Three global meteorological datasets were assessed and compared for use in the hydrological model: TRMM, WFDEI and MSWEP. The meteorological datasets were assessed based on their conformity with several precipitation station measurements, and the overall model performance was assessed by calculating the NSE and RVE based on discharge measurements of several gauging stations. The model was run for the period 1979-2012 on a daily time step, and the results show an acceptable applicability of the used global datasets in the hydrological model. The WFDEI forcing dataset gave the best results, with a NSE of 0.55 at the outlet of the model and a RVE of 8.5%, calculated over the calibration period 2006-2012. As a general trend the modelled discharge at the upstream stations tends to be underestimated, and at the downstream stations slightly overestimated. The quality of the discharge measurements

  6. Interpretation of TOMS Observations of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone with a Global Model and In Situ Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Randall V.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Bey, Isabelle; Yantosca, Robert M.; Staudt, Amanda C.; Fiore, Arlene M.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Liu, Hongyu; Ginoux, Paul

    2004-01-01

    We interpret the distribution of tropical tropospheric ozone columns (TTOCs) from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) by using a global three-dimensional model of tropospheric chemistry (GEOS-CHEM) and additional information from in situ observations. The GEOS-CHEM TTOCs capture 44% of the variance of monthly mean TOMS TTOCs from the convective cloud differential method (CCD) with no global bias. Major discrepancies are found over northern Africa and south Asia where the TOMS TTOCs do not capture the seasonal enhancements from biomass burning found in the model and in aircraft observations. A characteristic feature of these northern topical enhancements, in contrast to southern tropical enhancements, is that they are driven by the lower troposphere where the sensitivity of TOMS is poor due to Rayleigh scattering. We develop an efficiency correction to the TOMS retrieval algorithm that accounts for the variability of ozone in the lower troposphere. This efficiency correction increases TTOC's over biomass burning regions by 3-5 Dobson units (DU) and decreases them by 2-5 DU over oceanic regions, improving the agreement between CCD TTOCs and in situ observations. Applying the correction to CCD TTOCs reduces by approximately DU the magnitude of the "tropical Atlantic paradox" [Thompson et al, 2000], i.e. the presence of a TTOC enhancement over the southern tropical Atlantic during the northern African biomass burning season in December-February. We reproduce the remainder of the paradox in the model and explain it by the combination of upper tropospheric ozone production from lightning NOx, peristent subsidence over the southern tropical Atlantic as part of the Walker circulation, and cross-equatorial transport of upper tropospheric ozone from northern midlatitudes in the African "westerly duct." These processes in the model can also account for the observed 13-17 DU persistent wave-1 pattern in TTOCs with a maximum above the tropical Atlantic and a minimum

  7. Global scale ionospheric irregularities associated with thunderstorm activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulinets, Sergey A.; Depuev, Victor H.

    2003-01-01

    The potential difference near 280 kV exists between ground and ionosphere. This potential difference is generated by thunderstorm discharges all over the world, and return current closes the circuit in the areas of fair weather (so-called fair weather current). The model calculations and experimental measurements clearly demonstrate non-uniform latitude-longitude distribution of electric field within the atmosphere. The recent calculations show that the strong large scale vertical atmospheric electric field can penetrate into the ionosphere and create large scale irregularities of the electron concentration. To check this the global distributions of thunderstorm activity obtained with the satellite monitoring for different seasons were compared with the global distributions of ionosphere critical frequency (which is equivalent to peak electron concentration) obtained with the help of satellite topside sounding. The similarity of the obtained global distributions clearly demonstrates the effects of thunderstorm electric fields onto the Earth's ionosphere. (author)

  8. A global weighted mean temperature model based on empirical orthogonal function analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qinzheng; Chen, Peng; Sun, Langlang; Ma, Xiaping

    2018-03-01

    A global empirical orthogonal function (EOF) model of the tropospheric weighted mean temperature called GEOFM_Tm was developed using high-precision Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) Atmosphere Tm data during the years 2008-2014. Due to the quick convergence of EOF decomposition, it is possible to use the first four EOF series, which consists base functions Uk and associated coefficients Pk, to represent 99.99% of the overall variance of the original data sets and its spatial-temporal variations. Results show that U1 displays a prominent latitude distribution profile with positive peaks located at low latitude region. U2 manifests an asymmetric pattern that positive values occurred over 30° in the Northern Hemisphere, and negative values were observed at other regions. U3 and U4 displayed significant anomalies in Tibet and North America, respectively. Annual variation is the major component of the first and second associated coefficients P1 and P2, whereas P3 and P4 mainly reflects both annual and semi-annual variation components. Furthermore, the performance of constructed GEOFM_Tm was validated by comparison with GTm_III and GTm_N with different kinds of data including GGOS Atmosphere Tm data in 2015 and radiosonde data from Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) in 2014. Generally speaking, GEOFM_Tm can achieve the same accuracy and reliability as GTm_III and GTm_N models in a global scale, even has improved in the Antarctic and Greenland regions. The MAE and RMS of GEOFM_Tm tend to be 2.49 K and 3.14 K with respect to GGOS Tm data, respectively; and 3.38 K and 4.23 K with respect to IGRA sounding data, respectively. In addition, those three models have higher precision at low latitude than middle and high latitude regions. The magnitude of Tm remains at the range of 220-300 K, presented a high correlation with geographic latitude. In the Northern Hemisphere, there was a significant enhancement at high latitude region reaching 270 K during summer

  9. SHARP - V. Modelling gravitationally-lensed radio arcs imaged with global VLBI observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spingola, C.; McKean, J. P.; Auger, M. W.; Fassnacht, C. D.; Koopmans, L. V. E.; Lagattuta, D. J.; Vegetti, S.

    2018-05-01

    We present milliarcsecond (mas) angular resolution observations of the gravitationally lensed radio source MG J0751+2716 (at z = 3.2) obtained with global Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) at 1.65 GHz. The background object is highly resolved in the tangential and radial directions, showing evidence of both compact and extended structure across several gravitational arcs that are 200 to 600 mas in size. By identifying compact sub-components in the multiple images, we constrain the mass distribution of the foreground z = 0.35 gravitational lens using analytic models for the main deflector [power-law elliptical mass model; ρ(r)∝r-γ, where γ = 2 corresponds to isothermal] and for the members of the galaxy group. Moreover, our mass models with and without the group find an inner mass-density slope steeper than isothermal for the main lensing galaxy, with γ1 = 2.08 ± 0.02 and γ2 = 2.16 ± 0.02 at the 4.2σ level and 6.8σ level, respectively, at the Einstein radius (b1 = 0.4025 ± 0.0008 and b2 = 0.307 ± 0.002 arcsec, respectively). We find randomly distributed image position residuals of about 3 mas, which are much larger that the measurement errors (40 μas on average). This suggests that at the mas level, the assumption of a smooth mass distribution fails, requiring additional structure in the model. However, given the environment of the lensing galaxy, it is not clear whether this extra mass is in the form of sub-haloes within the lens or along the line of sight, or from a more complex halo for the galaxy group.

  10. Unbiased global determination of parton distributions and their uncertainties at NNLO and at LO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Collaboration, The NNPDF; Ball, Richard D.; Bertone, Valerio; Cerutti, Francesco; Debbio, Luigi Del; Forte, Stefano; Guffanti, Alberto; Latorre, Jose I.; Rojo, Juan; Ubiali, Maria

    2012-01-01

    We present a determination of the parton distributions of the nucleon from a global set of hard scattering data using the NNPDF methodology at LO and NNLO in perturbative QCD, thereby generalizing to these orders the NNPDF2.1 NLO parton set. Heavy quark masses are included using the so-called FONLL

  11. An Analysis of Yip's Global Strategy Model, Using Coca-Cola ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Analysis of the selected business cases suggest a weak fit between the Yip model of a truly Global strategy ... like Coca-Cola in the beverage industry for effective implementation of a global strategy. ... Keywords: Global Strategy, Leadership.

  12. Conceptual understanding of climate change with a globally resolved energy balance model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dommenget, Dietmar [Monash University, School of Mathematical Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Floeter, Janine [Leibniz Institute for Marine Sciences, Kiel (Germany)

    2011-12-15

    The future climate change projections are essentially based on coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations, which give a distinct global warming pattern with arctic winter amplification, an equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and an inter-hemispheric warming gradient. While these simulations are the most important tool of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions, the conceptual understanding of these predicted structures of climate change and the causes of their uncertainties is very difficult to reach if only based on these highly complex CGCM simulations. In the study presented here we will introduce a very simple, globally resolved energy balance (GREB) model, which is capable of simulating the main characteristics of global warming. The model shall give a bridge between the strongly simplified energy balance models and the fully coupled 4-dimensional complex CGCMs. It provides a fast tool for the conceptual understanding and development of hypotheses for climate change studies, which shall build a basis or starting point for more detailed studies of observations and CGCM simulations. It is based on the surface energy balance by very simple representations of solar and thermal radiation, the atmospheric hydrological cycle, sensible turbulent heat flux, transport by the mean atmospheric circulation and heat exchange with the deeper ocean. Despite some limitations in the representations of the basic processes, the models climate sensitivity and the spatial structure of the warming pattern are within the uncertainties of the IPCC models simulations. It is capable of simulating aspects of the arctic winter amplification, the equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and the inter-hemispheric warming gradient with good agreement to the IPCC models in amplitude and structure. The results give some insight into the understanding of the land-sea contrast and the polar amplification. The GREB model suggests that the regional inhomogeneous

  13. Assessing modelled spatial distributions of ice water path using satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliasson, S.; Buehler, S. A.; Milz, M.; Eriksson, P.; John, V. O.

    2010-05-01

    The climate models used in the IPCC AR4 show large differences in monthly mean cloud ice. The most valuable source of information that can be used to potentially constrain the models is global satellite data. For this, the data sets must be long enough to capture the inter-annual variability of Ice Water Path (IWP). PATMOS-x was used together with ISCCP for the annual cycle evaluation in Fig. 7 while ECHAM-5 was used for the correlation with other models in Table 3. A clear distinction between ice categories in satellite retrievals, as desired from a model point of view, is currently impossible. However, long-term satellite data sets may still be used to indicate the climatology of IWP spatial distribution. We evaluated satellite data sets from CloudSat, PATMOS-x, ISCCP, MODIS and MSPPS in terms of monthly mean IWP, to determine which data sets can be used to evaluate the climate models. IWP data from CloudSat cloud profiling radar provides the most advanced data set on clouds. As CloudSat data are too short to evaluate the model data directly, it was mainly used here to evaluate IWP from the other satellite data sets. ISCCP and MSPPS were shown to have comparatively low IWP values. ISCCP shows particularly low values in the tropics, while MSPPS has particularly low values outside the tropics. MODIS and PATMOS-x were in closest agreement with CloudSat in terms of magnitude and spatial distribution, with MODIS being the best of the two. As PATMOS-x extends over more than 25 years and is in fairly close agreement with CloudSat, it was chosen as the reference data set for the model evaluation. In general there are large discrepancies between the individual climate models, and all of the models show problems in reproducing the observed spatial distribution of cloud-ice. Comparisons consistently showed that ECHAM-5 is the GCM from IPCC AR4 closest to satellite observations.

  14. Global adjoint tomography: first-generation model

    KAUST Repository

    Bozdağ, Ebru

    2016-09-23

    We present the first-generation global tomographic model constructed based on adjoint tomography, an iterative full-waveform inversion technique. Synthetic seismograms were calculated using GPU-accelerated spectral-element simulations of global seismic wave propagation, accommodating effects due to 3-D anelastic crust & mantle structure, topography & bathymetry, the ocean load, ellipticity, rotation, and self-gravitation. Fréchet derivatives were calculated in 3-D anelastic models based on an adjoint-state method. The simulations were performed on the Cray XK7 named \\'Titan\\', a computer with 18 688 GPU accelerators housed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The transversely isotropic global model is the result of 15 tomographic iterations, which systematically reduced differences between observed and simulated three-component seismograms. Our starting model combined 3-D mantle model S362ANI with 3-D crustal model Crust2.0. We simultaneously inverted for structure in the crust and mantle, thereby eliminating the need for widely used \\'crustal corrections\\'. We used data from 253 earthquakes in the magnitude range 5.8 ≤ M ≤ 7.0. We started inversions by combining ~30 s body-wave data with ~60 s surface-wave data. The shortest period of the surface waves was gradually decreased, and in the last three iterations we combined ~17 s body waves with ~45 s surface waves. We started using 180 min long seismograms after the 12th iteration and assimilated minor- and major-arc body and surface waves. The 15th iteration model features enhancements of well-known slabs, an enhanced image of the Samoa/Tahiti plume, as well as various other plumes and hotspots, such as Caroline, Galapagos, Yellowstone and Erebus. Furthermore, we see clear improvements in slab resolution along the Hellenic and Japan Arcs, as well as subduction along the East of Scotia Plate, which does not exist in the starting model. Point-spread function tests demonstrate that we are approaching the

  15. Global (50°S–50°N) distribution of water vapor observed by COSMIC GPS RO: Comparison with GPS radiosonde, NCEP, ERA-Interim, and JRA-25 reanalysis data sets

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Kishore, P

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available In this study, global (50°S–50°N) distribution of water vapor is investigated using COSMIC GPS RO measurements. Detailed comparisons have been made between COSMIC and high resolution GPS radiosonde measurements across 13 tropical stations and model...

  16. Using isotopes to improve impact and hydrological predictions of land-surface schemes in global climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGuffie, K.; Henderson-Sellers, A.

    2002-01-01

    Global climate model (GCM) predictions of the impact of large-scale land-use change date back to 1984 as do the earliest isotopic studies of large-basin hydrology. Despite this coincidence in interest and geography, with both papers focussed on the Amazon, there have been few studies that have tried to exploit isotopic information with the goal of improving climate model simulations of the land-surface. In this paper we analyze isotopic results from the IAEA global data base specifically with the goal of identifying signatures of potential value for improving global and regional climate model simulations of the land-surface. Evaluation of climate model predictions of the impacts of deforestation of the Amazon has been shown to be of significance by recent results which indicate impacts occurring distant from the Amazon i.e. tele-connections causing climate change elsewhere around the globe. It is suggested that these could be similar in magnitude and extent to the global impacts of ENSO events. Validation of GCM predictions associated with Amazonian deforestation are increasingly urgently required because of the additional effects of other aspects of climate change, particularly synergies occurring between forest removal and greenhouse gas increases, especially CO 2 . Here we examine three decades distributions of deuterium excess across the Amazon and use the results to evaluate the relative importance of the fractionating (partial evaporation) and non-fractionating (transpiration) processes. These results illuminate GCM scenarios of importance to the regional climate and hydrology: (i) the possible impact of increased stomatal resistance in the rainforest caused by higher levels of atmospheric CO2 [4]; and (ii) the consequences of the combined effects of deforestation and global warming on the regions climate and hydrology

  17. Modeling the recovery and degradation of mangroves at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagomasino, D.; Fatoyinbo, T.; Lee, S. K.; Feliciano, E. A.; Trettin, C.

    2017-12-01

    Forest growth and reforestation rates are crucial information for sustainable forest management practices and decision-making for restoration projects. There has been a recent increase in mangrove blue carbon restoration projects because of their extremely high carbon density, globally can reach over 1000 Mg ha-1 of carbon. If ecosystem projects do plan to facilitate mangrove restoration or deter land cover changes as a climate change mitigation strategy or in other carbon inventory strategies, unbiased field inventories need to become the norm. It is known that mangrove carbon can be extremely high in certain geographic settings, but that is not the case for many other regions. Remotely sensed canopy height has recently been incorporated into mangrove field inventories which provides an unbiased, readily accessible, and spatially-explicit model that was used to stratify the inventory design into discrete height classes. Combining the forest canopy height distribution captured from space and the field inventory data, biomass and carbon density were determined for each height class. Here, we present mangrove vertical growth rates and global carbon stock changes modeled through the combination of remotely sensed land cover change and canopy height class models using Landsat-derived vegetation index anomalies and synthetic aperture radar interferometry, respectively. Average growth rates ( 1-1.5m yr-1) were determined for four mangrove forests in the Zambezi, Rufiji, Ganges, and Mekong Deltas. An average global net productivity (9-10 Mg C ha-1 yr-1) was then derived using the four sites which represent young, fast-growing mangrove forests. Global mangrove carbon change was calculated using the average productivity estimates and land cover change from 2000 to 2015. Losses were categorized based on canopy height derived biomass classes in 2000 using Shuttle Radar Topography Mission data, while gained carbon stocks were assessed by using the study-derived mean

  18. A Process-based Model of Global Lichen Productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porada, P.; Kleidon, A.

    2012-04-01

    Lichens and biotic crusts are abundant in most ecosystems of the world. They are the main autotrophic organisms in many deserts and at high altitudes and they can also be found in large amounts as epiphytes in some forests, especially in the boreal zone. They are characterised by a great variety of physiological properties, such as growth form, productivity or color. Due to the vast land surface areas covered by lichens, they may contribute significantly to the global terrestrial net carbon uptake. Furthermore, they potentially play an important role with respect to nutrient cycles in some ecosystems and they have the ability to enhance weathering at the surface on which they grow. A possible way to quantify these processes at the global scale is presented here in form of a process-based lichen model. This approach is based on the concepts used in many dynamical vegetation models and extends these methods to account for the specific properties of lichens. Hence, processes such as photosynthesis, respiration and water exchange are implemented as well as important trade-offs like photosynthetic capacity versus respiratory load and water content versus CO2 conductivity. The great physiological variability of lichens is incorporated directly into the model through ranges of possible parameter values, which are randomly sampled. In this way, many artificial lichen "species" are created and climate then acts as a filter to determine the species which are able to survive permanently. By averaging over the surviving "species", the model predicts lichen productivity as a function of climate input data such as temperature, radiation and precipitation at the global scale. Consequently, the contribution of lichens to the global carbon balance can be quantified. Moreover, global patterns of lichen biodiversity and other properties can be illustrated. The model can be extended to account for the nutrient dynamics of lichens, such as nitrogen fixation and the acquisition and

  19. A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, Matthias

    2015-04-01

    Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F

  20. Asymmetric distribution of the ionospheric electric potential in the opposite hemispheres as inferred from the SuperDARN observations and FAC-based convection model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lukianova, R.; Hanuise, C.; Christiansen, Freddy

    2008-01-01

    We compare the SuperDARN convection patterns with the predictions of a new numerical model of the global distribution of ionospheric electric potentials. The model utilizes high-precision statistical maps of field-aligned currents (FAC) derived from measurements made by polar-orbiting low-altitud...