Demographic trends, the wildland-urban interface, and wildfire management

Science.gov (United States)

Roger B. Hammer; Susan I. Stewart; Volker C. Radeloff

2009-01-01

In this article, we provide an overview of the demographic trends that have impacted and will continue to impact the "wicked" wildfire management problem in the United States, with particular attention to the emergence of the wildland-urban interface (WUI). Although population growth has had an impact on the emergence of the WUI, the deconcentration of...

Global interpersonal inequality: Trends and measurement

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Niño-Zarazúa, Miguel; Roope, Laurence; Tarp, Finn

This paper discusses different approaches to the measurement of global interpersonal in equality. Trends in global interpersonal inequality during 1975-2005 are measured using data from UNU-WIDER’s World Income Inequality Database. In order to better understand the trends, global interpersonal...... inequality is decomposed into within-country and between-country inequality. The paper illustrates that the relationship between global interpersonal inequality and these constituent components is a complex one. In particular, we demonstrate that the changes in China’s and India’s income distributions over...... the past 30 years have simultaneously caused inequality to rise domestically in those countries, while tending to reduce global inter-personal inequality. In light of these findings, we reflect on the meaning and policy relevance of global vis-à-vis domestic inequality measures...

Key Trends Shaping the Global Logistics Environment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Handfield, Robert; Straube, Frank; Pfohl, Hans-Christian

A summary from the full study “Trends and Strategies in Logistics and Supply Chain Management. Embracing Global Logistics Complexity to Drive Market Advantage” (2013).......A summary from the full study “Trends and Strategies in Logistics and Supply Chain Management. Embracing Global Logistics Complexity to Drive Market Advantage” (2013)....

Global population trends and policy options.

Science.gov (United States)

Ezeh, Alex C; Bongaarts, John; Mberu, Blessing

2012-07-14

Rapid population growth is a threat to wellbeing in the poorest countries, whereas very low fertility increasingly threatens the future welfare of many developed countries. The mapping of global trends in population growth from 2005-10 shows four distinct patterns. Most of the poorest countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, are characterised by rapid growth of more than 2% per year. Moderate annual growth of 1-2% is concentrated in large countries, such as India and Indonesia, and across north Africa and western Latin America. Whereas most advanced-economy countries and large middle-income countries, such as China and Brazil, are characterised by low or no growth (0-1% per year), most of eastern Europe, Japan, and a few western European countries are characterised by population decline. Countries with rapid growth face adverse social, economic, and environmental pressures, whereas those with low or negative growth face rapid population ageing, unsustainable burdens on public pensions and health-care systems, and slow economic growth. Countries with rapid growth should consider the implementation of voluntary family planning programmes as their main policy option to reduce the high unmet need for contraception, unwanted pregnancies, and probirth reproductive norms. In countries with low or negative growth, policies to address ageing and very low fertility are still evolving. Further research into the potential effect of demographic policies on other social systems, social groups, and fertility decisions and trends is therefore recommended. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Men and Cosmetics: Social and Psychological Trends of an Emerging Demographic.

Science.gov (United States)

Rieder, Evan A; Mu, Euphemia W; Brauer, Jeremy A

2015-09-01

Though still accounting for a small fraction of all cosmetic procedures in the United States, men are an emerging and rapidly expanding demographic in the field of aesthetic medicine. In this article we highlight the trends contributing to the rise of male aesthetic procedures in dermatology, touching on social influences, psychological motivations, and treatment outcomes.

Health Care Cost Growth and Demographic Trends Drive the Long-Term Fiscal Challenge

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

2008-01-01

... health care costs and known demographic trends. In fact, the oldest members of the baby boom generation are now eligible for Social Security retirement benefits and will be eligible for Medicare benefits in less than 3 years...

Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping

Science.gov (United States)

Voigt, Stefan; Giulio-Tonolo, Fabio; Lyons, Josh; Kučera, Jan; Jones, Brenda; Schneiderhan, Tobias; Platzeck, Gabriel; Kaku, Kazuya; Hazarika, Manzul Kumar; Czaran, Lorant; Li, Suju; Pedersen, Wendi; James, Godstime Kadiri; Proy, Catherine; Muthike, Denis Macharia; Bequignon, Jerome; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2016-01-01

Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective.

Trends in global CO2 emissions. 2012 Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olivier, J.G.J.; Peters, J.A.H.W. [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Den Haag (Netherlands); Janssens-Maenhout, G. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, European Commission' s Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy)

2012-07-15

This report discusses the results of a trend assessment of global CO2 emissions up to 2011 and updates last year's assessment. This assessment focusses on the changes in annual CO2 emissions from 2010 to 2011, and includes not only fossil fuel combustion on which the BP reports are based, but also incorporates all other relevant CO2 emissions sources including flaring of waste gas during oil production, cement clinker production and other limestone uses, feedstock and other non-energy uses of fuels, and several other small sources. After a short description of the methods used (Chapter 2), we first present a summary of recent CO2 emission trends, by region and by country, and of the underlying trend of fossil fuel use, non-fossil energy and of other CO2 sources (Chapter 3). To provide a broader context of the global trends we also assess the cumulative global CO2 emissions of the last decade, i.e. since 2000, and compare it with scientific literature that analyse global emissions in relation to the target of 2C maximum global warming in the 21st century, which was adopted in the UN climate negotiations (Chapter 4). Compared to last year's report, Annex 1 includes a more detailed and updated discussion of the uncertainty in national and global CO2 emission estimates.

Trends in global CO2 emissions. 2012 Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olivier, J. G.J.; Peters, J. A.H.W. [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Den Haag (Netherlands); Janssens-Maenhout, G. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, European Commission' s Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy)

2012-07-15

This report discusses the results of a trend assessment of global CO2 emissions up to 2011 and updates last year's assessment. This assessment focusses on the changes in annual CO2 emissions from 2010 to 2011, and includes not only fossil fuel combustion on which the BP reports are based, but also incorporates all other relevant CO2 emissions sources including flaring of waste gas during oil production, cement clinker production and other limestone uses, feedstock and other non-energy uses of fuels, and several other small sources. After a short description of the methods used (Chapter 2), we first present a summary of recent CO2 emission trends, by region and by country, and of the underlying trend of fossil fuel use, non-fossil energy and of other CO2 sources (Chapter 3). To provide a broader context of the global trends we also assess the cumulative global CO2 emissions of the last decade, i.e. since 2000, and compare it with scientific literature that analyse global emissions in relation to the target of 2C maximum global warming in the 21st century, which was adopted in the UN climate negotiations (Chapter 4). Compared to last year's report, Annex 1 includes a more detailed and updated discussion of the uncertainty in national and global CO2 emission estimates.

Trends in global CO2 emissions. 2013 Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olivier, J.G.J.; Peters, J.A.H.W. [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Den Haag (Netherlands); Janssens-Maenhout, G. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, European Commission' s Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy); Muntean, M. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy)

2013-10-15

This report discusses the results of a trend assessment of global CO2 emissions up to 2012 and updates last year's assessment. This assessment focuses on the changes in annual CO2 emissions from 2011 to 2012, and includes not only fossil-fuel combustion on which the BP reports are based, but also incorporates other relevant CO2 emissions sources including flaring of waste gas during gas and oil production, cement clinker production and other limestone uses, feedstock and other non-energy uses of fuels, and several other small sources. The report clarifies the CO2 emission sources covered, and describes the methodology and data sources. More details are provided in Annex 1 over the 2010-2012 period, including a discussion of the degree of uncertainty in national and global CO2 emission estimates. Chapter 2 presents a summary of recent CO2 emission trends, per main country or region, including a comparison between emissions per capita and per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and of the underlying trend in fossil-fuel production and use, non-fossil energy and other CO2 sources. Specific attention is given to developments in shale gas and oil production and oil sands production and their impact on CO2 emissions. To provide a broader context of global emissions trends, international greenhouse gas mitigation targets and agreements are also presented, including different perspectives of emission accounting per country. In particular, annual trends with respect to the Kyoto Protocol target and Cancun agreements and cumulative global CO2 emissions of the last decade are compared with scientific literature that analyses global emissions in relation to the target of 2{sup 0}C maximum global warming in the 21st century, which was adopted in the UN climate negotiations. In addition, we briefly discuss the rapid development and implementation of various emission trading schemes, because of their increasing importance as a cross-cutting policy instrument for mitigating

Is the global mean temperature trend too low?

Science.gov (United States)

Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf

2015-04-01

The global mean temperature trend may be biased due to similar technological and economic developments worldwide. In this study we want to present a number of recent results that suggest that the global mean temperature trend might be steeper as generally thought. In the Global Historical Climate Network version 3 (GHCNv3) the global land surface temperature is estimated to have increased by about 0.8°C between 1880 and 2012. In the raw temperature record, the increase is 0.6°C; the 0.2°C difference is due to homogenization adjustments. Given that homogenization can only reduce biases, this 0.2°C stems from a partial correction of bias errors and it seems likely that the real non-climatic trend bias will be larger. Especially in regions with sparser networks, homogenization will not be able to improve the trend much. Thus if the trend bias in these regions is similar to the bias for more dense networks (industrialized countries), one would expect the real bias to be larger. Stations in sparse networks are representative for a larger region and are given more weight in the computation of the global mean temperature. If all stations are given equal weight, the homogenization adjustments of the GHCNv3 dataset are about 0.4°C per century. In the subdaily HadISH dataset one break with mean size 0.12°C is found every 15 years for the period 1973-2013. That would be a trend bias of 0.78°C per century on a station by station basis. Unfortunately, these estimates strongly focus on Western countries having more stations. It is known from the literature that rich countries have a (statistically insignificant) stronger trend in the global datasets. Regional datasets can be better homogenized than global ones, the main reason being that global datasets do not contain all stations known to the weather services. Furthermore, global datasets use automatic homogenization methods and have less or no metadata. Thus while regional data can be biased themselves, comparing them

Demographic patterns and trends in Central Ghana: baseline indicators from the Kintampo Health and Demographic Surveillance System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seth Owusu-Agyei

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Background: The dearth of health and demographic data in sub-Saharan Africa from vital registration systems and its impact on effective planning for health and socio-economic development is widely documented. Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems have the capacity to address the dearth of quality data for policy making in resource-poor settings. Objective: This article demonstrates the utility of the Kintampo Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS by showing the patterns and trends of population change from 2005 to 2009 in the Kintampo North Municipality and Kintampo South districts of Ghana through data obtained from the KHDSS biannual update rounds. Design: Basic demographic rates for fertility, mortality, and migration were computed by year. School enrolment was computed as a percentage in school by age and sex for 6–18 year-olds. Socio-economic status was derived by use of Principal Components Analysis on household assets. Results: Over the period, an earlier fertility decline was reversed in 2009; mortality declined slightly for all age-groups, and a significant share of working-age population was lost through out-migration. Large minorities of children of school-going age are not in school. Socio-economic factors are shown to be important determinants of fertility and mortality. Conclusion : Strengthening the capacity of HDSSs could offer added value to evidence-driven policymaking at local level.

Global Trends of Tropospheric NO2 Observed From Space

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, P.; van der A, R. J.

2012-04-01

Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) is one of the major atmospheric pollutants and is primarily emitted by industrial activity and transport. While observations of NO2 are frequently being carried out at air quality stations, such measurements are not able to provide a global perspective of spatial patterns in NO2 concentrations and their associated trends due to the stations' limited spatial representativity and an extremely sparse and often completely non-existent station coverage in developing countries. Satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 are able to overcome this issue and provide an unprecedented global view of spatial patterns in NO2 levels and due to their homogeneity are well suited for studying trends. Here we present results of a global trend analysis from nearly a decade of NO2 observations made by the SCIAMACHY (SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY) instrument onboard the Envisat satellite platform. Using only SCIAMACHY data allows for mapping global and regional trends at an unprecedented spatial resolution since no aggregation to the coarser resolution of other sensors is necessary. Monthly average tropospheric NO2 column data was acquired for the period between August 2002 and August 2011. A trend analysis was subsequently performed by fitting a statistical model including a seasonal cycle and linear trend to the time series extracted at each grid cell. The linear trend component and the trend uncertainty were then mapped spatially at both regional and global scales. The results show that spatially contiguous areas of significantly increasing NO2 levels are found primarily in Eastern China, with absolute trends of up to 4.05 (± 0.41) - 1015 molecules cm-2 yr-1 at the gridcell level and large areas showing rapid relative increases of 10-20 percent per year. In addition, many urban agglomerations in Asia and the Middle East similarly exhibit significantly increasing trends, with Dhaka in Bangladesh being the megacity with

DEVELOPMENT TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL DENTAL MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Veronica BULAT

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The paper analyses the key trends of the market, and segments the global dental equipment and consumables market by components and into various geographic regions in way of market size. It discusses the key market drivers, main players, restraints and opportunities of the global dental equipment and consumables market.

Global Trends in Workplace Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Lung-Sheng; Lai, Chun-Chin

2012-01-01

The paradigm of human resource development has shifted to workplace learning and performance. Workplace can be an organization, an office, a kitchen, a shop, a farm, a website, even a home. Workplace learning is a dynamic process to solve workplace problems through learning. An identification of global trends of workplace learning can help us to…

Attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness from 1982 to 2011

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Z.; Xu, L.; Bi, J.; Myneni, R.; Knyazikhin, Y.

2012-12-01

Time series of remotely sensed vegetation indices data provide evidence of changes in terrestrial vegetation activity over the past decades in the world. However, it is difficult to attribute cause-and-effect to vegetation trends because variations in vegetation productivity are driven by various factors. This study investigated changes in global vegetation productivity first, and then attributed the global natural vegetation with greening trend. Growing season integrated normalized difference vegetation index (GSI NDVI) derived from the new GIMMS NDVI3g dataset (1982-2011was analyzed. A combined time series analysis model, which was developed from simper linear trend model (SLT), autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and Vogelsang's t-PST model shows that productivity of all vegetation types except deciduous broadleaf forest predominantly showed increasing trends through the 30-year period. The evolution of changes in productivity in the last decade was also investigated. Area of greening vegetation monotonically increased through the last decade, and both the browning and no change area monotonically decreased. To attribute the predominant increase trend of productivity of global natural vegetation, trends of eight climate time series datasets (three temperature, three precipitation and two radiation datasets) were analyzed. The attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness was summarized as relaxation of climatic constraints, fertilization and other unknown reasons. Result shows that nearly all the productivity increase of global natural vegetation was driven by relaxation of climatic constraints and fertilization, which play equally important role in driving global vegetation greenness.; Area fraction and productivity change fraction of IGBP vegetation land cover classes showing statistically significant (10% level) trend in GSI NDVIt;

Global health care leadership development: trends to consider

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MacPhee M

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Maura MacPhee,1 Lilu Chang,2 Diana Lee,3 Wilza Spiri4 1University of British Columbia School of Nursing, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; 2Center for Advancement of Nursing Education, Koo Foundation, Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan; 3Nethersole School of Nursing, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, 4São Paulo State University, Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil Abstract: This paper provides an overview of trends associated with global health care leadership development. Accompanying these trends are propositions based on current available evidence. These testable propositions should be considered when designing, implementing, and evaluating global health care leadership development models and programs. One particular leadership development model, a multilevel identity model, is presented as a potential model to use for leadership development. Other, complementary approaches, such as positive psychology and empowerment strategies, are discussed in relation to leadership identity formation. Specific issues related to global leadership are reviewed, including cultural intelligence and global mindset. An example is given of a nurse leadership development model that has been empirically tested in Canada. Through formal practice–academic–community collaborations, this model has been locally adapted and is being used for nurse leader training in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Brazil. Collaborative work is under way to adapt the model for interprofessional health care leadership development. Keywords: health care leadership, development models, global trends, collective

Prolonged sitting in cars: prevalence, socio-demographic variations, and trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Sugiyama, Takemi; Merom, Dafna; van der Ploeg, Hidde P; Corpuz, Grace; Bauman, Adrian; Owen, Neville

2012-10-01

Prolonged sitting is detrimentally associated with health outcomes. However, the prevalence and characteristics of those who sit in cars for long periods are not well understood. This study examined the population prevalence, socio-demographic variations, and trends for prolonged sitting in cars among adults. Using the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area Household Travel Survey, the prevalence of prolonged sitting time in cars (≥2 h/day) was calculated for four 3-year periods (1997-99, 2000-02, 2003-05, and 2006-08) for each population subgroup. Trends were calculated as the mean change in prevalence between adjacent survey periods. Cars were used for 66% of the total trips recorded (n=336,505). The prevalence of prolonged sitting time in cars was 16-18% in men, and 10-12% in women. Relatively higher prevalence rates were found among middle-age groups (men: 20-22%, women: 12-15%), full-time workers (men: 21-24%, women: 14-15%), those with higher income (men: 21-25%, women: 14-16%), couples with children (men: 20-21%, women: 12-14%), and those living in outer suburbs (men: 20-23%, women: 12-13%). Trends were stable in men, but increasing in women. Several subgroups (older age; living in regional suburbs) also showed increasing trends. These findings provide evidence to inform integrated approaches to measurement and policy development on prolonged car use among the public health, urban planning, and transport sectors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Recent demographic trends in Turkey].

Science.gov (United States)

Behar, C

1993-01-01

Coverage of Turkey's vital registration system remains incomplete, and it cannot yet be used to measure annual population changes. Data and demographic indices based on the 1990 census and the 1989 National Demographic Survey are the most recent available. Turkey's population in 1990 was 56 million. The proportion urban increased to 59% from 49.2% in 1980. Nearly 35% of the population was under 15 years old, and the median age was 21.6 for males and 22.3 for females. The average age at first marriage in 1989 was 24.8 for men and 21.8 for women. Mortality has been in continuous decline. The crude death rate dropped from 16.4/1000 in 1960-65 to slightly under 8 in 1989. Life expectancy at birth was 63.3 for men and 66 for women. The infant mortality rate declined from 166 in 1965-70 to 85 in 1989. Rural or urban residence and maternal educational level were the most significant determinants of infant mortality differentials. Turkey's total fertility rate declined from 6.2 in 1960 to 4.3 in 1978 and 3.4 in 1988-89. The crude birth rate declined from around 40/1000 in 1968 to under 28/1000 in 1989. Fertility began to decline in the last third of the nineteenth century in Istanbul and other large cities of the Ottoman Empire. Istanbul's total fertility rate was a relatively low 3.9 even before World War I. Turkey adopted a policy to slow demographic growth in the mid 1960s, and family planning activities were supported by nongovernmental organizations. The direct impact of these policies on demographic behavior appears to have been somewhat limited, and the use of traditional methods of birth limitation remains widespread. Abortion was legalized in 1983 and is available at public hospitals. The proportion of married women aged 15-49 who use contraception increased from 38% in 1973 to 63% in 1988. Regional differentials in demographic indices are significant in Turkey, with the Anatolian East and Southeast lagging behind other regions in fertility and mortality decline

Demographic controls of future global fire risk

Science.gov (United States)

Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.

2016-08-01

Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

GLOBAL TRENDS OF ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivan LUCHIAN

2016-08-01

Full Text Available An alternative investment is an investment product other than the traditional investments of stocks, bonds, cash, or property. The term is a relatively loose one and includes tangible assets such as art, wine, antiques, coins, or stamps and some financial assets such as commodities, hedge funds, venture capital,and others. At the moment it was created a global industry opportunities for making investments in nontraditional form. The aim of this paper consists in demonstrating the possibilities of these investments. For this have been studied related main international markets, a fter then deducted world dominant trends. This article is concerned to present some details of alternative investments global market.

Demographic patterns and trends in patenting: Gender, age, and education of inventors

OpenAIRE

Ejermo, Olof; Jung, Taehyun

2012-01-01

This paper uses register-linked patent records covering an extended period 1985-2007 to analyze detailed demographic profiles of inventors. The analysis covers about 80 percent of all inventors with Swedish addresses listed on European Patent Office records. Examining temporal trends of gender, age, and education shows that the body of inventors is becoming more balanced in gender, younger, and more educated. However, the rate at which female inventors are entering into patenting has slowed d...

Future trends in global blindness

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Serge Resnikoff

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of this review is to discuss the available data on the prevalence and causes of global blindness, and some of the associated trends and limitations seen. A literature search was conducted using the terms "global AND blindness" and "global AND vision AND impairment", resulting in seven appropriate articles for this review. Since 1990 the estimate of global prevalence of blindness has gradually decreased when considering the best corrected visual acuity definition: 0.71% in 1990, 0.59% in 2002, and 0.55% in 2010, corresponding to a 0.73% reduction per year over the 2002-2010 period. Significant limitations were found in the comparability between the global estimates in prevalence or causes of blindness or visual impairment. These limitations arise from various factors such as uncertainties about the true cause of the impairment, the use of different definitions and methods, and the absence of data from a number of geographical areas, leading to various extrapolation methods, which in turn seriously limit comparability. Seminal to this discussion on limitations in the comparability of studies and data, is that blindness has historically been defined using best corrected visual acuity.

Demographic trends in the Lodz region and their implications for seniors 50+

OpenAIRE

Jolanta Woźnica; Andrzej Tokarski

2014-01-01

The situation on the labor market in the Lodz region will change much in the short term , among other things as a result of unfavorable demographic trends, associated with a decrease in population, and also due to a lowering of labor resources. Decreasing labor resources may in the future adversely affect both the balance between the regional labor market by inducing a state of labor shortages and limit the opportunities for development of the region. Simultaneously, due to declining bi...

Major Demographic Changes in Bangladesh and their Socio-economic Correlates: Analysis of Trends

OpenAIRE

Mohammad, Hossain; Tisdell, Clement A.

2003-01-01

Catalogues the demographic changes in Bangladesh during the period 1975-2000 and examines how they relate to key socio-economic attributes. Trends are examined in population growth, growth of the working age population, women’s workforce participation, age-dependency ratio, female-male ratio, longevity, fertility, mortality and mean age at first marriage. Bangladesh has made significant breakthroughs in all these areas, a feat not matched by most other South Asian countries, but comparable wi...

Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E

2015-08-11

Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.

The relationship between problematic internet use, violence trend and some demographic variables among university students

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aysun Babacan Gumus

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Aim: The aim of this study is to investigate relations between problematic internet use, violence trend and some demographic variables in university students. Methods: The study was conducted with students studying at a state university. The sample consisted of 375 university students as 201 female and 174 male. The data were collected using Demographic Information Form, Internet Addiction Scale (IAS and Violence Proneness Scale (VPS. In the analysis of the data; descriptive statistics student t test, ANOVA, Post hoc Tukey HSD test, pearson correlation analysis and stepwise hierarchical regression analysis were used. Results: The mean age of the students was 21.04+/-1.65 years (age range 18-28 years. It was found that 82.7% of the students in the study group use internet with the purpose of information, and 78.4% of the students use internet for social and entertainment purposes. According to IAS points; 3.7% of the students are problematic internet use, whereas 30.4% show borderline indications in terms of problematic internet use. According to VPS points; 40% of students have high trend of violence and 2.7% of the students have very high trend of violence. A positive relationship was determined between IAS and VPS mean scores (r=0.346, p<0.01. Duration of internet use, violence trend, internet use for social and entertainment purposes and gender are the variables that predict problematic internet use level. Problematic internet use, friend relationships, duration of mother education, gender and duration of internet use are significant predictors of violence trend. Conclusion: The research findings indicate that a significant portion of university students are at risk of problematic internet use and high violence trend. It is believed that the findings obtained in this research will be beneficial in terms of taking necessary measures for groups at risk and of raising awareness among university students. [TAF Prev Med Bull 2015; 14(6.000: 460-467

Global change integrating factors: Tropical tropopause trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reck, R.A.

1994-01-01

This research proposes new criteria, shifts in the height and temperature of the tropical tropopause, as measures of global climate change. The search for signs of global warming in the temperature signal near the earth's surface is extremely difficult, largely because numerous factors contribute to surface temperature forcing with only a small signal-to-noise ratio relative to long-term effects. In the long term, no part of the atmosphere can be considered individually because the evolution will be a function of all states of all portions. A large surface greenhouse signal might ultimately be expected, but the analysis of surface temperature may not be particularly useful for early detection. What is suggested here is not an analysis of trends in the surface temperature field or any of its spatial averages, but rather an integrating factor or integrator, a single measure of global change that could be considered a test of significant change for the entire global system. Preferably, this global change integrator would vary slowly and would take into account many of the causes of climate change, with a relatively large signal-to-noise ratio. Such an integrator could be monitored, and abrupt or accelerated changes could serve as an early warning signal for policy makers and the public. Earlier work has suggested that temperature has much less short-term and small-scale noise in the lower stratosphere, and thus the global warming signal at that level might be more easily deconvoluted, because the cooling rate near the 200-mb level is almost constant with latitude. A study of the temperature signal at this pressure level might show a clearer trend due to increased levels of greenhouse gases, but it would yield information about the troposphere only by inference

Incidence, trends and demographics of Staphylococcus aureus infections in Auckland, New Zealand, 2001-2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Williamson, Deborah A; Lim, Alwin; Thomas, Mark G; Baker, Michael G; Roberts, Sally A; Fraser, John D; Ritchie, Stephen R

2013-12-03

New Zealand has a higher incidence of Staphylococcus aureus disease than other developed countries, with significant sociodemographic variation in incidence rates. In contrast to North America, the majority of disease is due to methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA), although relatively little is known about the comparative demographics of MSSA and methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) infections in New Zealand. Our objectives were to describe the trends, incidence and patient demographics of all S. aureus infections in patients presenting to our institution between 2001 and 2011, and compare the epidemiology of MSSA and MRSA infections. We identified all patients with S. aureus infections over the study period. A unique S. aureus infection was defined as the first positive S. aureus culture taken from the same patient within a thirty-day period. Standard definitions were used to classify episodes into community- or healthcare-associated S. aureus infection. There were 16,249 S. aureus infections over the study period. The incidence increased significantly over the study period from 360 to 412 per 100,000 population (P New Zealand. The significant increase in community-associated S. aureus infections is of public health importance. Future studies should investigate the reasons underlying this concerning trend.

Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L. E.

2015-01-01

Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary. PMID:26259555

Global Energy Trends - 2016 edition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-01-01

Based on its 2015 data for G20 countries, Enerdata analyses the trends of the world energy markets. The full report presents in-depth information on the energy markets as well as upcoming trends for all energies in the G20. With over 400 premium sources, Enerdata analysts highlight major developments in 2015 concerning global demand, supply and key indicators across the globe. Key Points: 2.8%: The weakest economic growth since 2002: If the economic activity of OECD countries improved slightly (USA, EU...), that of non - OECD countries slowed down, particularly in China, and with some even declining (Brazil and Russia). +0.5%: Near stagnation of energy consumption: As with last year, 2015 saw weak growth in energy consumption for G20 countries (10.8 Gtoe, or +0.5%, while the 10-year average exceeds 2%). Within the OECD, consumption declined slightly. In non-OECD countries, the evolution becomes historic with an increase limited to 1.3%, compared to a 10-year average of 5%. Besides the direct impact of the economic downturn mentioned above, this result comes largely from China where the near stagnation of energy consumption confirms a trend beginning in 2014 towards a less energy-intensive economy. 0: Stability of CO_2 emissions - cyclical or structural?: After the surprising slowdown in 2014, 2015 also saw a stable level of CO_2 -energy emissions (27 GtCO_2). A direct result from the stagnation in energy consumption, this figure also results from a slight modification in the power mix, in particular from the decline in coal consumption (China, USA..). -3 %: Decrease in the carbon intensity of the economy: In 2015 we acknowledge a 3% decrease in carbon intensity compared to an historical average of -1.5%/year; this progress comes from a decrease in China (stability of energy consumption and decrease of coal share in the mix) and in the USA (more gas, less coal). A trend still far away from climate change targets set at the COP21: On the climate side, the stagnation

Trends '91: A compendium of data on global change---highlights

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boden, T.A.; Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W.

1992-03-01

The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has been prompted to produce the series Trends, a concise inventory of data in response to heightened concern about global environmental issues, in particular climate changes induced by the greenhouse effect. This report contains extracts from Trends '91 to illustrate the content, style, and presentation of data contained in the full 700-page report. This report includes a listing of the investigators contributing data for Trends '91. In addition, it contains the abstract, foreword, and acknowledgments, as well as the introduction and a sample data record from each of the reports's five chapters. The chapters are ''Atmospheric CO 2 ,'' ''Atmospheric CH 4 ,'' ''Other Trace Gases,'' ''CO 2 Emissions,'' and ''Temperature.'' Appendix A provides information about CDIAC and its activities related to global environmental issues. Appendix B lists the contents of the full report. An order form for obtaining a free copy of Trends '91 is found in Appendix C

Digital Library Education: Global Trends and Issues

Science.gov (United States)

Shem, Magaji

2015-01-01

The paper examines trends and issues in digital education programmes globally, drawing examples of developmental growth of Library Information Science (LIS), schools and digital education courses in North America, Britain, and Southern Asia, the slow growth of LIS schools and digital education in Nigeria and some countries in Africa and India. The…

HIV/AIDS: global trends, global funds and delivery bottlenecks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hadingham Jacqui

2005-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Globalisation affects all facets of human life, including health and well being. The HIV/AIDS epidemic has highlighted the global nature of human health and welfare and globalisation has given rise to a trend toward finding common solutions to global health challenges. Numerous international funds have been set up in recent times to address global health challenges such as HIV. However, despite increasingly large amounts of funding for health initiatives being made available to poorer regions of the world, HIV infection rates and prevalence continue to increase world wide. As a result, the AIDS epidemic is expanding and intensifying globally. Worst affected are undoubtedly the poorer regions of the world as combinations of poverty, disease, famine, political and economic instability and weak health infrastructure exacerbate the severe and far-reaching impacts of the epidemic. One of the major reasons for the apparent ineffectiveness of global interventions is historical weaknesses in the health systems of underdeveloped countries, which contribute to bottlenecks in the distribution and utilisation of funds. Strengthening these health systems, although a vital component in addressing the global epidemic, must however be accompanied by mitigation of other determinants as well. These are intrinsically complex and include social and environmental factors, sexual behaviour, issues of human rights and biological factors, all of which contribute to HIV transmission, progression and mortality. An equally important factor is ensuring an equitable balance between prevention and treatment programmes in order to holistically address the challenges presented by the epidemic.

Recent demographic trends in the northern borderland between Italy and Slovenia: Stabilization or further redistribution of population?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Josipovič Damir

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The contribution presents findings from the research on a constitution of new ethnic identities in Alps-Adriatic region. The key question dealt here with was to which extent the recent demographical processes impact the peripheral, mountainous, and ethnically specific cross-border region between Slovenia and Italy. In lay and professional discourse there is still omnipresent mentality of extinguishing Slovene minority in Italy. Applying various demographical methods the article resolves the demographical processes and quantifies the extent of the local Slovene speakers. The author argues that the recent demographical processes of heavy depopulation tend to stabilize towards stagnation. Depopulation is stronger in the Slovenian part of the region, though the traditional Slovene-speaking areas in Italy aren’t as threatened as the adjacent Friulian areas. New migration trends along with the generally low fertility contribute to changes in traditional dualistic structure and bring refreshment to remote parts of the border region as well.

Demographic stagnation and decline in Spain: A cause for concern?

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Serrano-Martínez José-María

2018-03-01

Full Text Available For years, the Spanish population has been rapidly ageing, showing signs of atony and stagnation. Between 1996 and 2007, in a phase of economic growth, the entry of foreign immigrants drove a global increase in population. But after the economic recession migratory flows show negative net balances. Our objective is to explain and confirm the demographic regression suffered by Spain. We are also interested in showing how the recent and intense immigration process has failed to generate significant changes in natural demographic characteristics and trends. National censuses, published by the National Institute of Statistics (INE, are our main source of demographic data. The analysis of the most recent relevant scientific literature has allowed us to compare opinions and discuss results. The data confirm an uncertain and worrying future for the Spanish population.

Incidence, trends and demographics of Staphylococcus aureus infections in Auckland, New Zealand, 2001–2011

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background New Zealand has a higher incidence of Staphylococcus aureus disease than other developed countries, with significant sociodemographic variation in incidence rates. In contrast to North America, the majority of disease is due to methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA), although relatively little is known about the comparative demographics of MSSA and methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) infections in New Zealand. Methods Our objectives were to describe the trends, incidence and patient demographics of all S. aureus infections in patients presenting to our institution between 2001 and 2011, and compare the epidemiology of MSSA and MRSA infections. We identified all patients with S. aureus infections over the study period. A unique S. aureus infection was defined as the first positive S. aureus culture taken from the same patient within a thirty-day period. Standard definitions were used to classify episodes into community- or healthcare-associated S. aureus infection. Results There were 16,249 S. aureus infections over the study period. The incidence increased significantly over the study period from 360 to 412 per 100,000 population (P New Zealand. The significant increase in community-associated S. aureus infections is of public health importance. Future studies should investigate the reasons underlying this concerning trend. PMID:24299298

Comparison of Decadal Water Storage Trends from Global Hydrological Models and GRACE Satellite Data

Science.gov (United States)

Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z. Z.; Save, H.; Sun, A. Y.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Van Beek, L. P.; Wiese, D. N.; Wada, Y.; Long, D.; Reedy, R. C.; Doll, P. M.; Longuevergne, L.

2017-12-01

Global hydrology is increasingly being evaluated using models; however, the reliability of these global models is not well known. In this study we compared decadal trends (2002-2014) in land water storage from 7 global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, and GLDAS: NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to storage trends from new GRACE satellite mascon solutions (CSR-M and JPL-M). The analysis was conducted over 186 river basins, representing about 60% of the global land area. Modeled total water storage trends agree with those from GRACE-derived trends that are within ±0.5 km3/yr but greatly underestimate large declining and rising trends outside this range. Large declining trends are found mostly in intensively irrigated basins and in some basins in northern latitudes. Rising trends are found in basins with little or no irrigation and are generally related to increasing trends in precipitation. The largest decline is found in the Ganges (-12 km3/yr) and the largest rise in the Amazon (43 km3/yr). Differences between models and GRACE are greatest in large basins (>0.5x106 km2) mostly in humid regions. There is very little agreement in storage trends between models and GRACE and among the models with values of r2 mostly store water over decadal timescales that is underrepresented by the models. The storage capacity in the modeled soil and groundwater compartments may be insufficient to accommodate the range in water storage variations shown by GRACE data. The inability of the models to capture the large storage trends indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced changes in water storage may be mostly underestimated. Future GRACE and model studies should try to reduce the various sources of uncertainty in water storage trends and should consider expanding the modeled storage capacity of the soil profiles and their interaction with groundwater.

Limitations of a Short Demographic Questionnaire for Bedside Estimation of Patients’ Global Cognitive Functioning in Epilepsy Patients

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Iris Gorny

2018-03-01

Full Text Available ObjectivesThe German socio-demographic estimation scale was developed by Jahn et al. (1 to quickly predict premorbid global cognitive functioning in patients. So far, it has been validated in healthy adults and has shown a good correlation with the full and verbal IQ of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS in this group. However, there are no data regarding its use as a bedside test in epilepsy patients.MethodsForty native German speaking adult patients with refractory epilepsy were included. They completed a neuropsychological assessment, including a nine scale short form of the German version of the WAIS-III and the German socio-demographic estimation scale by Jahn et al. (1 during their presurgical diagnostic stay in our center. We calculated means, correlations, and the rate of concordance (range ±5 and ±7.5 IQ score points between these two measures for the whole group, and a subsample of 19 patients with a global cognitive functioning level within 1 SD of the mean (IQ score range 85–115 and who had completed their formal education before epilepsy onset.ResultsThe German demographic estimation scale by Jahn et al. (1 showed a significant mean overestimation of the global cognitive functioning level of eight points in the epilepsy patient sample compared with the short form WAIS-III score. The accuracy within a range of ±5 or ±7.5 IQ score points for each patient was similar to that of the healthy controls reported by Jahn et al. (1 in our subsample, but not in our whole sample.ConclusionOur results show that the socio-demographic scale by Jahn et al. (1 is not sufficiently reliable as an estimation tool of global cognitive functioning in epilepsy patients. It can be used to estimate global cognitive functioning in a subset of patients with a normal global cognitive functioning level who have completed their formal education before epilepsy onset, but it does not reliably predict global cognitive functioning in epilepsy patients

Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data

Science.gov (United States)

Scanlon, Bridget R.; Zhang, Zizhan; Save, Himanshu; Sun, Alexander Y.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Wiese, David N.; Reedy, Robert C.; Longuevergne, Laurent; Döll, Petra; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2018-01-01

Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002–2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤−0.5 km3/y) and increasing (≥0.5 km3/y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km3/y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (−71 to 11 km3/y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71–82 km3/y) but negative for models (−450 to −12 km3/y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated. PMID:29358394

Global Trends in Space Access and Utilization

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Shamim A.; Keim, Nicholas S.; Zeender, Peter E.

2010-01-01

In the not-so-distant past, space access and air/space technology superiority were within the purview of the U.S. and former Soviet Union's respective space agencies, both vying for global leadership in space exploitation. In more recent years, with the emergence of the European Space Agency (ESA) member countries and Asian countries joining the family of space-faring nations, it is truer now more than ever that space access and utilization has become a truly global enterprise. In fact, according to the Space Report 2007, this enterprise is a $251-billion economy. It is possible to gauge the vitality of worldwide efforts from open sources in today's transparent, media-based society. In particular, print and web broadcasters regularly report and catalog global space activities for defense and civil purposes. For the purposes of this paper, a representative catalog of missions is used to illustrate the nature of the emerging "globalization." This paper highlights global trends in terms of not only the providers of space access, but also the end-users for the various recently accomplished missions. With well over 50 launches per year, in recent years, the launch-log reveals a surprising percentage of "cooperative or co-dependent missions" where different agencies, countries, and/or commercial entities are so engaged presumably to the benefit of all who participate. Statistics are cited and used to show that recently over d0% of the 50-plus missions involved multiple nations working collectively to deliver payloads to orbit. Observers, space policy professionals, and space agency leaders have eloquently proposed that it might require the combined resources and talents of multiple nations to advance human exploration goals beyond low earth orbit. This paper does not intend to offer new information with respect to whether international collaboration is necessary but to observe that, in continuing to monitor global trends, the results seem to support the thesis that a

Running injuries - changing trends and demographics.

Science.gov (United States)

Fields, Karl B

2011-01-01

Running injuries are common. Recently the demographic has changed, in that most runners in road races are older and injuries now include those more common in master runners. In particular, Achilles/calf injuries, iliotibial band injury, meniscus injury, and muscle injuries to the hamstrings and quadriceps represent higher percentages of the overall injury mix in recent epidemiologic studies compared with earlier ones. Evidence suggests that running mileage and previous injury are important predictors of running injury. Evidence-based research now helps guide the treatment of iliotibial band, patellofemoral syndrome, and Achilles tendinopathy. The use of topical nitroglycerin in tendinopathy and orthotics for the treatment of patellofemoral syndrome has moderate to strong evidence. Thus, more current knowledge about the changing demographics of runners and the application of research to guide treatment and, eventually, prevent running injury offers hope that clinicians can help reduce the high morbidity associated with long-distance running.

Trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus.

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Shao-Min; Wu, Guang

2009-12-01

The global warming is an important factor affecting the biological evolution, and the influenza is an important disease that threatens humans with possible epidemics or pandemics. In this study, we attempted to analyze the trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus, because this protein is a target of anti-flu drug, and its mutation would have significant effect on the resistance to anti-flu drugs. The evolution of matrix protein 2 of influenza A virus from 1959 to 2008 was defined using the unpredictable portion of amino-acid pair predictability. Then the trend in this evolution was compared with the trend in the global temperature, the temperature in north and south hemispheres, and the temperature in influenza A virus sampling site, and species carrying influenza A virus. The results showed the similar trends in global warming and in evolution of M2 proteins although we could not correlate them at this stage of study. The study suggested the potential impact of global warming on the evolution of proteins from influenza A virus.

Day Service Provision for People with Intellectual Disabilities: A Case Study Mapping 15-Year Trends in Ireland

Science.gov (United States)

Fleming, Padraic; McGilloway, Sinead; Barry, Sarah

2017-01-01

Background: Day services for people with intellectual disabilities are experiencing a global paradigm shift towards innovative person-centred models of care. This study maps changing trends in day service utilization to highlight how policy, emergent patterns and demographic trends influence service delivery. Methods: National intellectual…

Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets

Science.gov (United States)

Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.

2012-04-01

The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.

Labour Markets Trends, Financial Globalization and the current crisis in Developing Countries

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R.E. van der Hoeven (Rolph)

2010-01-01

textabstractThe current wave of globalization has profound labour market effects, accentuated, in many cases, by the current financial and economic crisis. This paper reviews general labour market trends and country examples, arguing that the current globalization process makes labour’s position

Rapid, global demographic expansions after the origins of agriculture.

Science.gov (United States)

Gignoux, Christopher R; Henn, Brenna M; Mountain, Joanna L

2011-04-12

The invention of agriculture is widely assumed to have driven recent human population growth. However, direct genetic evidence for population growth after independent agricultural origins has been elusive. We estimated population sizes through time from a set of globally distributed whole mitochondrial genomes, after separating lineages associated with agricultural populations from those associated with hunter-gatherers. The coalescent-based analysis revealed strong evidence for distinct demographic expansions in Europe, southeastern Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa within the past 10,000 y. Estimates of the timing of population growth based on genetic data correspond neatly to dates for the initial origins of agriculture derived from archaeological evidence. Comparisons of rates of population growth through time reveal that the invention of agriculture facilitated a fivefold increase in population growth relative to more ancient expansions of hunter-gatherers.

Modern-Day Demographic Processes in Central Europe and Their Potential Interactions with Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Bański, Jerzy

2013-01-01

The aim of this article is to evaluate the effect of contemporary transformations in the population of Central European countries on climate change, in addition to singling out the primary points of interaction between demographic processes and the climate. In analyzing the interactions between climate and demographics, we can formulate three basic hypotheses regarding the region in question: 1) as a result of current demographic trends in Central Europe, the influence of the region on its climate will probably diminish, 2) the importance of the "climatically displaced" in global migratory movements will increase, and some of those concerned will move to Central Europe, 3) the contribution of the region to global food security will increase. In the last decade most of what comprises the region of Central Europe has reported a decline in population growth and a negative migration balance. As a process, this loss of population may have a positive effect on the environment and the climate. We can expect ongoing climate change to intensify migration processes, particularly from countries outside Europe. Interactions between climate and demographic processes can also be viewed in the context of food security. The global warming most sources foresee for the coming decades is the process most likely to result in spatial polarization of food production in agriculture. Central Europe will then face the challenge of assuring and improving food security, albeit this time on a global scale.

TRENDS 1991: A compendium of data on global change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boden, T.A.; Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W. (eds.)

1991-12-01

This document is a source of frequently used global-change data. This second issue of the Trends series expands the coverage of sites recording atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and methane (CH{sub 4}), and it updates records reported in the first issue. New data for other trace atmospheric gases have been included in this issue; historical data on nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}) from ice cores, modern records of atmospheric concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11 and CFC-12) and N{sub 2}O, and estimates of global estimates of CFC-11 and CFC-12. The estimates for global and national CO{sub 2} emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, the production of cement, and gas flaring have been revised and updated. Regional CO{sub 2} emission estimates have been added, and long-term temperature records have been updated and expanded. Data records are presented in four- to six-page formats, each dealing with a specific site, region, or emissions species. The data records include tables and graphs; discussion of methods for collecting, measuring, and reporting the data; trends in the data; and references to literature that provides further information. All data appearing in the document are available on digital media from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

TRENDS 1991: A compendium of data on global change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boden, T.A.; Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W.

1991-12-01

This document is a source of frequently used global-change data. This second issue of the Trends series expands the coverage of sites recording atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ), and it updates records reported in the first issue. New data for other trace atmospheric gases have been included in this issue; historical data on nitrous oxide (N 2 ) from ice cores, modern records of atmospheric concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11 and CFC-12) and N 2 O, and estimates of global estimates of CFC-11 and CFC-12. The estimates for global and national CO 2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, the production of cement, and gas flaring have been revised and updated. Regional CO 2 emission estimates have been added, and long-term temperature records have been updated and expanded. Data records are presented in four- to six-page formats, each dealing with a specific site, region, or emissions species. The data records include tables and graphs; discussion of methods for collecting, measuring, and reporting the data; trends in the data; and references to literature that provides further information. All data appearing in the document are available on digital media from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center

Characterizing uncertainties in recent trends of global terrestrial net primary production through ensemble modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Ganguly, S.; Votava, P.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R. B.

2010-12-01

Large uncertainties exist in our understanding of the trends and variability in global net primary production (NPP) and its controls. This study attempts to address this question through a multi-model ensemble experiment. In particular, we drive ecosystem models including CASA, LPJ, Biome-BGC, TOPS-BGC, and BEAMS with a long-term climate dataset (i.e., CRU-NCEP) to estimate global NPP from 1901 to 2009 at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree. We calculate the trends of simulated NPP during different time periods and test their sensitivities to climate variables of solar radiation, air temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and atmospheric CO2 levels. The results indicate a large diversity among the simulated NPP trends over the past 50 years, ranging from nearly no trend to an increasing trend of ~0.1 PgC/yr. Spatial patterns of the NPP generally show positive trends in boreal forests, induced mainly by increasing temperatures in these regions; they also show negative trends in the tropics, although the spatial patterns are more diverse. These diverse trends result from different climatic sensitivities of NPP among the tested models. Depending the ecological processes (e.g., photosynthesis or respiration) a model emphasizes, it can be more or less responsive to changes in solar radiation, temperatures, water, or atmospheric CO2 levels. Overall, these results highlight the limit of current ecosystem models in simulating NPP, which cannot be easily observed. They suggest that the traditional single-model approach is not ideal for characterizing trends and variability in global carbon cycling.

Trends in the Indian Ocean Climatology due to anthropogenic induced global warming

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Meyer, AA

2009-09-01

Full Text Available clearly show that due to global warming the South West Indian Ocean Climatology has been changing and that this changing trend will continue into the future as global warming continues. The impacts of regional oceanic climate change on the regions coastal...

Trends in global warming and evolution of nucleoproteins from influenza A viruses since 1918.

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, S; Wu, G

2010-12-01

Global warming affects not only the environment where we live, but also all living species to different degree, including influenza A virus. We recently conducted several studies on the possible impact of global warming on the protein families of influenza A virus. More studies are needed in order to have a full picture of the impact of global warming on living organisms, especially its effect on viruses. In this study, we correlate trends in global warming with evolution of the nucleoprotein from influenza A virus and then analyse the trends with respect to northern/southern hemispheres, virus subtypes and sampling species. The results suggest that global warming may have an impact on the evolution of the nucleoprotein from influenza A virus. © 2010 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Forecasting the Effects of Raising the Retirement Age on Russia’s Demographic Struc

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena Vital’evna Chistova

2016-07-01

Full Text Available The paper assesses the possibility of raising the retirement age to mitigate the effects of ageing on the pension system of Russia. The authors make demographic forecasts based on hypotheses about the presence of global demographic trends in population reproduction and manifestations of development features specific for Russia. The demographic forecast is based on the age shifting method according to three scenarios. The forecast takes into account the provisions of a draft law that has already been approved and that provides for a gradual increase in age limit for civil servants, both men and women, to 65 years (by six months each year. The following assumption is made for the purpose of studying the effects of raising the retirement age to 65 years for all categories of Russian citizens. The increase in the retirement age begins in 2016 at the rate of 6 months per year, and it will end for men in 2026 and for women – in 2036. Thus, by 2036, the official retirement age will be 65 years for both sexes. The resulting forecasts show that population ageing in Russia is an inevitable process. Depending on whether demographic processes are in line with global trends or whether certain specific Russian features of development are revealed, ageing process will occur in the first case – “from above”, in the second case – “from below”. The forecast has confirmed a well-known paradox that if the situation regarding the decline in mortality is improved further, as has happened in recent years, then the pace of ageing that negatively affects the balance of the pension system will be even higher, at least in the medium term. Forecast calculations have shown that, first, demographic burden on the working population will continue to increase under any demographic development scenario implemented in Russia, and most significantly, under a scenario that describes a successful demographic policy. Second, the number of retirement age women is a

The role of philosophy in global bioethics: introducing four trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Hellsten, Sirkku K

2015-04-01

This article examines the relationship between philosophy and culture in global bioethics. First, it studies what is meant by the term "global" in global bioethics. Second, the author introduces four different types, or recognizable trends, in philosophical inquiry in bioethics today. The main argument is that, in order to make better sense of the complexity of the ethical questions and challenges we face today across the globe, we need to embrace the universal nature of self-critical and analytical philosophical analysis and argumentation, rather than using seemingly philosophical approaches to give unjustified normative emphasis on different cultural approaches to bioethics.

Improvement of Global and Regional Mean Sea Level Trends Derived from all Altimetry Missions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ablain, Michael; Benveniste, Jérôme; Faugere, Yannice; Larnicol, Gilles; Cazenave, Anny; Johannessen, Johnny A.; Stammer, Detlef; Timms, Gary

2012-07-01

The global mean sea level (GMSL) has been calculated on a continual basis since January 1993 using data from satellite altimetry missions. The global mean sea level (MSL) deduced from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2 is increasing with a global trend of 3.2 mm from 1993 to 2010 applying the post glacial rebound (MSL Aviso website http://www.jason.oceanobs.com/msl). Besides, the regional sea level trends bring out an inhomogeneous repartition of the ocean elevation with local MSL slopes ranging from +/- 8 mm/year. A study published in 2009 [Ablain et al., 2009] has shown that the global MSL trend uncertainty was estimated at +/-0.6 mm/year with a confidence interval of 90%. The main sources of errors at global and regional scales are due to the orbit calculation and the wet troposphere correction. But others sea-level components have also a significant impact on the long-term stability of MSL as for instance the stability of instrumental parameters and the atmospheric corrections. Thanks to recent studies performed in Sea Level Essential Climate Variable Project in the frame of the Climate Change Initiative, an ESA Programme, in addition to activities performed within the SALP/CNES, strong improvements have been provided for the estimation of the global and regional MSL trends. In this paper, we propose to describe them; they concern the orbit calculation thanks to new gravity fields, the atmospheric corrections thanks to ERA-interim reanalyses, the wet troposphere corrections thanks to the stability improvement, and also empirical corrections allowing us to link regional time series together better. These improvements are described at global and regional scale for all the altimetry missions.

Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record

Science.gov (United States)

Poppick, Andrew; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Stein, Michael L.

2017-06-01

Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to de-emphasize physical and statistical assumptions: examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for internal variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. However, given a limited data record and the presence of internal variability, estimating radiatively forced temperature trends in the historical record necessarily requires some assumptions. Ostensibly empirical methods can also involve an inherent conflict in assumptions: they require data records that are short enough for naive trend models to be applicable, but long enough for long-timescale internal variability to be accounted for. In the context of global mean temperatures, empirical methods that appear to de-emphasize assumptions can therefore produce misleading inferences, because the trend over the twentieth century is complex and the scale of temporal correlation is long relative to the length of the data record. We illustrate here how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable trend estimates and can allow for a wider array of questions to be addressed. In particular, the model allows one to distinguish, within a single statistical framework, between uncertainties in the shorter-term vs. longer-term response to radiative forcing, with implications not only on historical trends but also on uncertainties in future projections. We also investigate the consequence on inferred uncertainties of the choice of a statistical description of internal variability. While nonparametric methods may seem to avoid making explicit assumptions, we demonstrate how even misspecified parametric statistical methods, if attuned to the

Dinamica demografică în perioada post-1945 și implicațiile ei (geopolitice (Demographic Trends Since 1945 and its (GeoPolitics Influences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aurelian GIUGĂL

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The world population has constantly increased post-1945. This trend has been unequal, there were significant differences between both continental & regional, developed & underdeveloped spaces. The increase in the developing world has been contra-balanced by decreasing in the developed countries. Additionally, as a consequence of low level fertility, the developed countries are affected by the phenomenon of aging population. Consequently, pro-immigration policies have been implemented in western societies. Under these circumstances, the percentage of Muslim and African population in Europe has lately increased. In this context, this article discusses these regional and continental demographic differences, trying to underline political influences generated by post-WWII demographic trend. Given the background, we state that immigrants from Western countries significantly influence the electoral behaviour. Moreover, recent tensions have changed security policies in the European and North American (USA cities. Last but not least, demographic evolutions have geopolitical impact.

Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Marotzke, Jochem; Forster, Piers M

2015-01-29

Most present-generation climate models simulate an increase in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) since 1998, whereas observations suggest a warming hiatus. It is unclear to what extent this mismatch is caused by incorrect model forcing, by incorrect model response to forcing or by random factors. Here we analyse simulations and observations of GMST from 1900 to 2012, and show that the distribution of simulated 15-year trends shows no systematic bias against the observations. Using a multiple regression approach that is physically motivated by surface energy balance, we isolate the impact of radiative forcing, climate feedback and ocean heat uptake on GMST--with the regression residual interpreted as internal variability--and assess all possible 15- and 62-year trends. The differences between simulated and observed trends are dominated by random internal variability over the shorter timescale and by variations in the radiative forcings used to drive models over the longer timescale. For either trend length, spread in simulated climate feedback leaves no traceable imprint on GMST trends or, consequently, on the difference between simulations and observations. The claim that climate models systematically overestimate the response to radiative forcing from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations therefore seems to be unfounded.

Global trends and their impact on city logistics management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tadić Snežana R.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Changes in economic and social environments are more dynamic, and survival in the market requires a wide range, increase efficiency and quality of logistics services. The competitiveness of the region and the city, as the leader of economic development, depends on the efficiency of logistics solutions that must be adaptive to new conditions and demands of the market. This paper presents some of the most important global trends in terms of impact on the urban logistics. In order to define sustainable solutions, the analysis of presented social, economic, technological, environmental and other trends should be integral part of the city logistics planning and management.

Political demography: Powerful trends under-attended by demographic science.

Science.gov (United States)

Teitelbaum, Michael S

2015-01-01

The interconnections between politics and the dramatic demographic changes under way around the world have been neglected by the two research disciplines that could contribute most to their understanding: demography and political science. Instead, this area of 'political demography' has largely been ceded to political activists, pundits, and journalists, leading often to exaggerated or garbled interpretation. The terrain includes some of the most politically sensitive and contested issues: alleged demographically determined shifts in the international balance of power; low fertility, population decline, and demographic ageing; international migration; change in national identity; and compositional shifts in politically sensitive social categories and human rights. Meanwhile many governments and non-governmental actors have actively pursued varieties of 'strategic demography', deploying fertility, mortality, or migration as instruments of domestic or international policy. Political scientists and demographers could and should use their knowledge and analytic techniques to improve understanding and to moderate excessive claims and fears on these topics.

Global trends in wildfire - perceptions and realities in a changing world

Science.gov (United States)

Doerr, Stefan; Santin, Cristina

2017-04-01

Wildfire has been an important process affecting the Earth's surface and atmosphere for over 350 million years and human societies have coexisted with fire since their emergence. Many consider wildfire as an accelerating problem, with widely held perceptions both in the media and scientific papers of increasing fire occurrence, severity and resulting losses. Whilst fire and associated impacts have indeed increased in some regions, such parts of western North America, Canada and Russia, fire has been decreasing in other regions such as African savannas. Overall, global area burned appears to have changed little over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago. Regarding fire severity, limited data are available. For the western USA, they indicate little change overall, and also that area burned at high severity has overall declined compared to pre-European settlement. Direct fatalities from fire and economic losses also show no clear trends over the past three decades. Trends in indirect impacts, such as health problems from smoke or disruption to social functioning may indeed be on the rise, however, they remain insufficiently quantified to be thoroughly examined. Notwithstanding these general observations, the changes in global fire distribution are of concern due to, for example, their detrimental impacts on peat and soil carbon stores in boreal and some tropical regions, or air pollution levels in SE-Asia. These and other impacts are likely to accelerate in a future warmer climate. This presentation aims to contribute to reducing misconceptions in fire trends and to facilitating a more informed understanding of the realities of global fire.

Analysis of global water vapour trends from satellite measurements in the visible spectral range

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S. Mieruch

2008-02-01

Full Text Available Global water vapour total column amounts have been retrieved from spectral data provided by the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME flying on ERS-2, which was launched in April 1995, and the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY onboard ENVISAT launched in March 2002. For this purpose the Air Mass Corrected Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (AMC-DOAS approach has been used. The combination of the data from both instruments provides us with a long-term global data set spanning more than 11 years with the potential of extension up to 2020 by GOME-2 data on MetOp.

Using linear and non-linear methods from time series analysis and standard statistics the trends of H₂O columns and their errors have been calculated. In this study, factors affecting the trend such as the length of the time series, the magnitude of the variability of the noise, and the autocorrelation of the noise are investigated. Special emphasis has been placed on the calculation of the statistical significance of the observed trends, which reveal significant local changes from −5% per year to +5% per year. These significant trends are distributed over the whole globe. Increasing trends have been calculated for Greenland, East Europe, Siberia and Oceania, whereas decreasing trends have been observed for the northwest USA, Central America, Amazonia, Central Africa and the Arabian Peninsular.

A Global Look at Future Trends in the Renewable Energy Resource

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, S.; Freedman, J. M.; Kirk-Davidoff, D. B.; Brower, M.

2017-12-01

With the aggressive deployment of utility-scale and distributed generation of wind and solar energy systems, an accurate estimate of the uncertainty associated with future resource trends and plant performance is crucial in maintaining financial integrity in the renewable energy markets. With continuing concerns regarding climate change, the move towards energy resiliency, and the cost-competitiveness of renewables, a rapidly expanding fleet of utility-scale wind and solar power facilities and distributed generation of both resources is now being incorporated into the electric distribution grid. Although solar and wind account for about 3% of global power production, renewable energy is now and will continue to be the world's fastest-growing energy source. With deeper penetration of renewables, confidence in future power production output on a spectrum of temporal and spatial scales is crucial to grid stability for long-term planning and achieving national and international targets in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we use output from a diverse subset of Earth System Models (Climate Model Inter-comparison Project-Phase 5 members) to produce projected trends and uncertainties in regional and global seasonal and inter-annual wind and solar power production and respective capacity factors through the end of the 21st century. Our trends and uncertainty analysis focuses on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. For wind and solar energy production estimates, we extract surface layer wind (extrapolated to hub height), irradiance, cloud fraction, and temperature (air temperature affects density [hence wind power production] and the efficiency of photovoltaic [PV] systems), output from the CMIP5 ensemble mean fields for the period 2020 - 2099 and an historical baseline for POR of 1986 - 2005 (compared with long-term observations and the ERA-Interim Reanalysis). Results include representative statistics such as the

The role of natural climatic variation in perturbing the observed global mean temperature trend

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

2011-02-15

Controversy continues to prevail concerning the reality of anthropogenically-induced climatic warming. One of the principal issues is the cause of the hiatus in the current global warming trend. There appears to be a widely held view that climatic change warming should exhibit an inexorable upwards trend, a view that implies there is no longer any input by climatic variability in the existing climatic system. The relative roles of climatic change and climatic variability are examined here using the same coupled global climatic model. For the former, the model is run using a specified CO{sub 2} growth scenario, while the latter consisted of a multi-millennial simulation where any climatic variability was attributable solely to internal processes within the climatic system. It is shown that internal climatic variability can produce global mean surface temperature anomalies of {+-}0.25 K and sustained positive and negative anomalies sufficient to account for the anomalous warming of the 1940s as well as the present hiatus in the observed global warming. The characteristics of the internally-induced negative temperature anomalies are such that if this internal natural variability is the cause of the observed hiatus, then a resumption of the observed global warming trend is to be expected within the next few years. (orig.)

Sectoral trends in global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

de Ia Rue du Can, Stephane; Price, Lynn

2008-01-01

Integrated assessment models have been used to project both baseline and mitigation greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results of these scenarios are typically presented for a number of world regions and end-use sectors, such as industry, transport, and buildings. Analysts interested in particular technologies and policies, however, require more detailed information to understand specific mitigation options in relation to business-as-usual trends. This paper presents sectoral trend for two of the scenarios produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Global and regional historical trends in energy use and carbon dioxide emissions over the past 30 years are examined and contrasted with projections over the next 30 years. Macro-activity indicators are analyzed as well as trends in sectoral energy and carbon demand. This paper also describes a methodology to calculate primary energy and carbon dioxide emissions at the sector level, accounting for the full energy and emissions due to sectoral activities. (author)

Drivers of Global Vegetation Biomass Trends between 1988 and 2008

KAUST Repository

McCabe, Matthew; Liu, Yi; Evans, Jason; De Jeu, Richard; van Dijk, Albert

2013-01-01

Vegetation optical depth (VOD) is an indicator of the vegetation water content of both woody and leaf components in terrestrial biomass as derived from passive microwave observations. VOD is distinctly different from products derived from optical remote sensing: it is less prone to saturation in dense canopy; is sensitive to both photosynthetic and non-photosynthetic biomass; is less affected by atmospheric conditions; and is of coarser spatial resolution. Here, VOD retrievals from a series of sensors are blended to produce a time series from 1988 through to 2008, and a global analysis is undertaken to quantify and attribute global VOD trends over the same period. We conduct Mann-Kendall linear trend tests on annual average VOD to identify regions of significant change. Patterns for these regions were evaluated against independent datasets to diagnose the underlying cause of the observed trends. Results indicate that: (1) over grassland and shrubland, VOD patterns correspond strongly to temporal precipitation patterns; (2) over croplands, annual average VOD shows a general increase that corresponds to reported crop yield patterns and can be attributed to a combination of precipitation patterns and agricultural improvement; (3) over humid tropical forest, the spatial pattern of VOD decline agrees well with deforestation patterns identified in previous studies; and (4) over boreal forests, regional VOD declines can be attributed to a combination of fires and logging. We conclude that VOD can be used to estimate and interpret global changes in total above ground vegetation biomass. We expect that this new observationally based remote sensing data source will be of considerable interest to hydrological, agricultural, climate change and carbon cycle studies, and provide new insights into these and related process investigations.

Drivers of Global Vegetation Biomass Trends between 1988 and 2008

KAUST Repository

McCabe, Matthew

2013-12-01

Vegetation optical depth (VOD) is an indicator of the vegetation water content of both woody and leaf components in terrestrial biomass as derived from passive microwave observations. VOD is distinctly different from products derived from optical remote sensing: it is less prone to saturation in dense canopy; is sensitive to both photosynthetic and non-photosynthetic biomass; is less affected by atmospheric conditions; and is of coarser spatial resolution. Here, VOD retrievals from a series of sensors are blended to produce a time series from 1988 through to 2008, and a global analysis is undertaken to quantify and attribute global VOD trends over the same period. We conduct Mann-Kendall linear trend tests on annual average VOD to identify regions of significant change. Patterns for these regions were evaluated against independent datasets to diagnose the underlying cause of the observed trends. Results indicate that: (1) over grassland and shrubland, VOD patterns correspond strongly to temporal precipitation patterns; (2) over croplands, annual average VOD shows a general increase that corresponds to reported crop yield patterns and can be attributed to a combination of precipitation patterns and agricultural improvement; (3) over humid tropical forest, the spatial pattern of VOD decline agrees well with deforestation patterns identified in previous studies; and (4) over boreal forests, regional VOD declines can be attributed to a combination of fires and logging. We conclude that VOD can be used to estimate and interpret global changes in total above ground vegetation biomass. We expect that this new observationally based remote sensing data source will be of considerable interest to hydrological, agricultural, climate change and carbon cycle studies, and provide new insights into these and related process investigations.

Mortality trends from 2003 to 2009 among adolescents and young adults in rural Western Kenya using a health and demographic surveillance system.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Penelope A Phillips-Howard

Full Text Available Targeted global efforts to improve survival of young adults need information on mortality trends; contributions from health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS are required.This study aimed to explore changing trends in deaths among adolescents (15-19 years and young adults (20-24 years, using census and verbal autopsy data in rural western Kenya using a HDSS. Mid-year population estimates were used to generate all-cause mortality rates per 100,000 population by age and gender, by communicable (CD and non-communicable disease (NCD causes. Linear trends from 2003 to 2009 were examined. In 2003, all-cause mortality rates of adolescents and young adults were 403 and 1,613 per 100,000 population, respectively, among females; and 217 and 716 per 100,000, respectively, among males. CD mortality rates among females and males 15-24 years were 500 and 191 per 100,000 (relative risk [RR] 2.6; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.7-4.0; p<0.001. NCD mortality rates in same aged females and males were similar (141 and 128 per 100,000, respectively; p = 0.76. By 2009, young adult female all-cause mortality rates fell 53% (χ(2 for linear trend 30.4; p<0.001 and 61.5% among adolescent females (χ(2 for linear trend 11.9; p<0.001. No significant CD mortality reductions occurred among males or for NCD mortality in either gender. By 2009, all-cause, CD, and NCD mortality rates were not significantly different between males and females, and among males, injuries equalled HIV as the top cause of death.This study found significant reductions in adolescent and young adult female mortality rates, evidencing the effects of targeted public health programmes, however, all-cause and CD mortality rates among females remain alarmingly high. These data underscore the need to strengthen programmes and target strategies to reach both males and females, and to promote NCD as well as CD initiatives to reduce the mortality burden amongst both gender.

Global ocean carbon uptake: magnitude, variability and trends

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R. Wanninkhof

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The globally integrated sea–air anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2 flux from 1990 to 2009 is determined from models and data-based approaches as part of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP project. Numerical methods include ocean inverse models, atmospheric inverse models, and ocean general circulation models with parameterized biogeochemistry (OBGCMs. The median value of different approaches shows good agreement in average uptake. The best estimate of anthropogenic CO2 uptake for the time period based on a compilation of approaches is −2.0 Pg C yr−1. The interannual variability in the sea–air flux is largely driven by large-scale climate re-organizations and is estimated at 0.2 Pg C yr−1 for the two decades with some systematic differences between approaches. The largest differences between approaches are seen in the decadal trends. The trends range from −0.13 (Pg C yr−1 decade−1 to −0.50 (Pg C yr−1 decade−1 for the two decades under investigation. The OBGCMs and the data-based sea–air CO2 flux estimates show appreciably smaller decadal trends than estimates based on changes in carbon inventory suggesting that methods capable of resolving shorter timescales are showing a slowing of the rate of ocean CO2 uptake. RECCAP model outputs for five decades show similar differences in trends between approaches.

Impacts of Global Manufacturing Trends on Port Development: The Case of Hong Kong1

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Abraham Zhang

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Global manufacturing trends may have profound implications for regional port development. This paper studies Hong Kong port (HKP, which has been one of the world's busiest container ports since the 1990s. In recent years, global manufacturers have started to move away from its primary cargo base, the Chinese Pearl River Delta. This study investigates impacts of the emerging global manufacturing trends on HKP development. It is found that relocation of manufacturing to Western Guangdong benefits HKP, while other relocation destinations make HKP less attractive or even irrelevant. Based on the findings, government policies are discussed that may be formulated to support the growth of the port and wider port-related economy.

Recent Trends in Global Ocean Chlorophyll

Science.gov (United States)

Gregg, Watson; Casey, Nancy

2004-01-01

Recent analyses of SeaWiFS data have shown that global ocean chlorophyll has increased more than 5% since 1998. The North Pacific ocean basin has increased nearly 19%. To understand the causes of these trends we have applied the newly developed NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Assimilation Model (OBAM), which is driven in mechanistic fashion by surface winds, sea surface temperature, atmospheric iron deposition, sea ice, and surface irradiance. The mode1 utilizes chlorophyll from SeaWiFS in a daily assimilation. The model has in place many of the climatic variables that can be expected to produce the changes observed in SeaWiFS data. Ths enables us to diagnose the model performance, the assimilation performance, and possible causes for the increase in chlorophyll.

Global distribution of methane emissions, emission trends, and OH trends inferred from an inversion of GOSAT data for 2010-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Maasakkers, J. D.; Jacob, D.; Payer Sulprizio, M.; Hersher, M.; Scarpelli, T.; Turner, A. J.; Sheng, J.; Bloom, A. A.; Bowman, K. W.; Parker, R.

2017-12-01

We present a global inversion of methane sources and sinks using GOSAT satellite data from 2010 up to 2015. The inversion optimizes emissions and their trends at 4° × 5° resolution as well as the interannual variability of global OH concentrations. It uses an analytical approach that quantifies the information content from the GOSAT observations and provides full error characterization. We show how the analytical approach can be applied in log-space, ensuring the positivity of the posterior. The inversion starts from state-of-science a priori emission inventories including the Gridded EPA inventory for US anthropogenic emissions, detailed oil and gas emissions for Canada and Mexico, EDGAR v4.3.2 for anthropogenic emissions in other countries, the WetCHARTs product for wetlands, and our own estimates for geological seeps. Inversion results show lower emissions over Western Europe and China than predicted by EDGAR v4.3.2 but higher emissions over Japan. In contrast to previous inversions that used incorrect patterns in a priori emissions, we find that the EPA inventory does not underestimate US anthropogenic emissions. Results for trends show increasing emissions in the tropics combined with decreasing emissions in Europe, and a decline in OH concentrations contributing to the global methane trend.

Global Skills and Mobility Challenges and Possibilities for VET: A Crossborder Cross-Sectoral Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Cameron, Roslyn; O'Hanlon-Rose, Terry

2011-01-01

The complex interplay of technological advances, global demographic trends and macroeconomic forces has seen the emergence of global markets, economies, supply chains and labour markets. The use of skilled migration policy and initiatives for many countries feeling the effects of aging populations and skill shortages adds another dimension to this…

Incidence and mortality of lung cancer: global trends and association with socioeconomic status.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Martin C S; Lao, Xiang Qian; Ho, Kin-Fai; Goggins, William B; Tse, Shelly L A

2017-10-30

We examined the correlation between lung cancer incidence/mortality and country-specific socioeconomic development, and evaluated its most recent global trends. We retrieved its age-standardized incidence rates from the GLOBOCAN database, and temporal patterns were assessed from global databases. We employed simple linear regression analysis to evaluate their correlations with Human Development Index (HDI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. The average annual percent changes (AAPC) of the trends were evaluated from join-point regression analysis. Country-specific HDI was strongly correlated with age-standardized incidence (r = 0.70) and mortality (r = 0.67), and to a lesser extent GDP (r = 0.24 to 0.55). Among men, 22 and 30 (out of 38 and 36) countries showed declining incidence and mortality trends, respectively; whilst among women, 19 and 16 countries showed increasing incidence and mortality trends, respectively. Among men, the AAPCs ranged from -2.8 to -0.6 (incidence) and -3.6 to -1.1 (mortality) in countries with declining trend, whereas among women the AAPC range was 0.4 to 8.9 (incidence) and 1 to 4.4 (mortality) in countries with increasing trend. Among women, Brazil, Spain and Cyprus had the greatest incidence increase, and all countries in Western, Southern and Eastern Europe reported increasing mortality. These findings highlighted the need for targeted preventive measures.

Global Trends in Seasonality of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, 1982–2011

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Assaf Anyamba

2013-09-01

Full Text Available A 30-year series of global monthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI imagery derived from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS NDVI3g archive was analyzed for the presence of trends in changing seasonality. Using the Seasonal Trend Analysis (STA procedure, over half (56.30% of land surfaces were found to exhibit significant trends. Almost half (46.10% of the significant trends belonged to three classes of seasonal trends (or changes. Class 1 consisted of areas that experienced a uniform increase in NDVI throughout the year, and was primarily associated with forested areas, particularly broadleaf forests. Class 2 consisted of areas experiencing an increase in the amplitude of the annual seasonal signal whereby increases in NDVI in the green season were balanced by decreases in the brown season. These areas were found primarily in grassland and shrubland regions. Class 3 was found primarily in the Taiga and Tundra biomes and exhibited increases in the annual summer peak in NDVI. While no single attribution of cause could be determined for each of these classes, it was evident that they are primarily found in natural areas (as opposed to anthropogenic land cover conversions and that they are consistent with climate-related ameliorations of growing conditions during the study period.

Trends and inter-annual variability of methane emissions derived from 1979-1993 global CTM simulations

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F. Dentener

2003-01-01

Full Text Available The trend and interannual variability of methane sources are derived from multi-annual simulations of tropospheric photochemistry using a 3-D global chemistry-transport model. Our semi-inverse analysis uses the fifteen years (1979--1993 re-analysis of ECMWF meteorological data and annually varying emissions including photo-chemistry, in conjunction with observed CH4 concentration distributions and trends derived from the NOAA-CMDL surface stations. Dividing the world in four zonal regions (45--90 N, 0--45 N, 0--45 S, 45--90 S we find good agreement in each region between (top-down calculated emission trends from model simulations and (bottom-up estimated anthropogenic emission trends based on the EDGAR global anthropogenic emission database, which amounts for the period 1979--1993 2.7 Tg CH4 yr-1. Also the top-down determined total global methane emission compares well with the total of the bottom-up estimates. We use the difference between the bottom-up and top-down determined emission trends to calculate residual emissions. These residual emissions represent the inter-annual variability of the methane emissions. Simulations have been performed in which the year-to-year meteorology, the emissions of ozone precursor gases, and the stratospheric ozone column distribution are either varied, or kept constant. In studies of methane trends it is most important to include the trends and variability of the oxidant fields. The analyses reveals that the variability of the emissions is of the order of 8Tg CH4 yr-1, and likely related to wetland emissions and/or biomass burning.

Trends in contraceptive use and distribution of births with demographic risk factors in Ethiopia: a sub-national analysis

OpenAIRE

Shiferaw, Solomon; Abdullah, Muna; Mekonnen, Yared; Ma?ga, Abdoulaye; Akinyemi, Akanni; Amouzou, Agbessi; Friedman, Howard; Barros, Aluisio J. D.; Hounton, Sennen

2015-01-01

Background: Evidence shows that family planning contributes to the decline in child mortality by decreasing the proportions of births that are considered high risk. The main objective of the present analysis was to examine the trends in use of modern contraceptives and their relationship with total fertility rate (TFR) and distribution of births by demographic risk factors as defined by mother’s age, birth interval, and birth order at the sub-national level in Ethiopia.Design: Analyses used d...

The digital divide: Trends in global mobile and broadband Internet access from 2000-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Ronquillo, Charlene; Currie, Leanne

2012-01-01

The digital divide is described as the gap between those who do and do not have access to digital information and communications technologies (ICT). ICTs are viewed as an indicator of infrastructure and potential for development, and are a growing platform for health information and services delivery. This study compares the penetration of mobile and broadband Internet technologies by global region from 2000 to 2010. Results illustrate the rapid growth of mobile cellular telephone subscriptions in all global regions with trends suggesting a continued increase. Little to modest gains were made in fixed broadband Internet subscriptions globally. There is a growing popularity of mobile subscriptions with use of data communications, exceeding the numbers of fixed Internet subscriptions. This comparison reveals current strengths that can be built on and highlights the importance of awareness of global trends and using such knowledge to inform design and delivery of ICT-based health services.

Trends in Public and Private School Principal Demographics and Qualifications: 1987-88 to 2011-12. Stats in Brief. NCES 2016-189

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, Jason; Ottem, Randolph; DeRoche, John

2016-01-01

Using data from seven administrations of the Schools and Staffing Survey (SASS), this Statistics in Brief examines trends in public and private school principal demographics, experience, and compensation over 25 years, from 1987-88 through 2011-12. Data are drawn from the 1987-88, 1990-91, 1993-94, 1999-2000, 2003-04, 2007-08, and 2011-12 survey…

Global Trend Analysis of Multi-decade Soil Temperature Records Show Soils Resistant to Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Frey, S. D.; Jennings, K.

2017-12-01

Soil temperature is an important determinant of many subterranean ecological processes including plant growth, nutrient cycling, and carbon sequestration. Soils are expected to warm in response to increasing global surface temperatures; however, despite the importance of soil temperature to ecosystem processes, less attention has been given to examining changes in soil temperature over time. We collected long-term (> 20 years) soil temperature records from approximately 50 sites globally, many with multiple depths (5 - 100 cm), and examined temperature trends over the last few decades. For each site and depth we calculated annual summer means and conducted non-parametric Mann Kendall trend and Sen slope analysis to assess changes in summer soil temperature over the length of each time series. The mean summer soil temperature trend across all sites and depths was not significantly different than zero (mean = 0.004 °C year-1 ± 0.033 SD), suggesting that soils have not warmed over the observation period. Of the subset of sites that exhibit significant increases in temperature over time, site location, depth of measurement, time series length, and neither start nor end date seem to be related to trend strength. These results provide evidence that the thermal regime of soils may have a stronger buffering capacity than expected, having important implications for the global carbon cycle and feedbacks to climate change.

Jobless society – phenomenon of global economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bilobrova Tetiana Oleksandrivna

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The main characteristics and causes of the jobless society formation based on the demographic indicators and trends in the global labour market observed have been identified in the article. The structural changes in youth employment and a number of new challenges for modern society have been investigated. The extent and nature of youth employment crisis according to the particular country and region have been analyzed. The process of young people into the virtual labour market integration as one of the possible solutions of global unemployment problem among young people has been described.

Global demographic change and climate policies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gerlagh, Reyer; Jaimes, Richard; Motavasseli, Ali

2017-01-01

Between 1950 and 2017, world average life expectancy increased from below-50 to above-70, while the fertility rate dropped from 5 to about 2.5. We develop and calibrate an analytic climate-economy model with overlapping generations to study the effect of such demographic change on capital markets

TRENDS '90: A compendium of data on global change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W. (eds.); Boden, T.A.; Kanciruk, P.; Farrell, M.P.

1990-08-01

This document is a source of frequently used global change data. This first issue includes estimates for global and national CO{sub 2} emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and from the production of cement, historical and modern records of atmospheric CO{sub 2} and methane concentrations, and several long-term temperature records. Included are tabular and graphical presentations of the data, discussions of trends in the data, and references to publications that provide further information. Data are presented in a two-page format, each dealing with a different data set. All data are available in digital form from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

The Status Quo and Developing Trend Analysis of Global Carbon Finance

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Liu Qian; Wang Yao

2011-01-01

This paper gives a systematic view of the new trends of global carbon finance innovation under the challenge of global climate change and in the process of transition to achieve economic growth from ＂high carbon＂ to ＇low carbon＇, covering the following aspects： the structure, status quo and developing trend of global carbon market. The paper discusses the innovation in financial organization and service systems and governments＇ overall guidance and policy support, and draws the conclusion that the world is undergoing massive changes with governments actively responding to carbon finance to embrace the tremendous opportunities for clean energy and climate change in financial industry. To seize the opportunity, a complete and overall carbon finance system of China should be put in the top of the agenda. Given the current tasks of energy conservation and pollution reduction and the growing demand for capital input, China needs to construct an clear of policy guidance, a diversified financia service system, and a multi-approach carbon finance system to intensify and widen the participation of financial industry, to expand financing channels for sustainable economy and spread risks, and finally, work out an inexpensive solution to the realization of China＇s low carbon target.

Digitalization and the global technology trends

Science.gov (United States)

Ignat, V.

2017-08-01

Digitalization, connected products and services, and shortening innovation cycles are widely discussed topics in management practice and theory and demand for new concepts. We analysed how companies innovated their business models and how are the new the technology trends. We found out, that have a positive approach to digitalization but the technology strategy still runs its original business model. Digitalization forces to new solution orientation. For companies it is necessary to master the digital transformation, new innovations have to be developed. Furthermore, digitalization / Industry 4.0 linking the real-life factory with virtual reality, will play an increasingly important role in global manufacturing. Companies have to obtain new digital capabilities, in order to make their company sustainable for the future. A long term growth and welfare in Europe could be guaranteed only by new technology innovation.

Structural Uncertainty in Model-Simulated Trends of Global Gross Primary Production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zaichun Zhu

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Projected changes in the frequency and severity of droughts as a result of increase in greenhouse gases have a significant impact on the role of vegetation in regulating the global carbon cycle. Drought effect on vegetation Gross Primary Production (GPP is usually modeled as a function of Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD and/or soil moisture. Climate projections suggest a strong likelihood of increasing trend in VPD, while regional changes in precipitation are less certain. This difference in projections between VPD and precipitation can cause considerable discrepancies in the predictions of vegetation behavior depending on how ecosystem models represent the drought effect. In this study, we scrutinized the model responses to drought using the 30-year record of Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS 3g Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI dataset. A diagnostic ecosystem model, Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS, was used to estimate global GPP from 1982 to 2009 under nine different experimental simulations. The control run of global GPP increased until 2000, but stayed constant after 2000. Among the simulations with single climate constraint (temperature, VPD, rainfall and solar radiation, only the VPD-driven simulation showed a decrease in 2000s, while the other scenarios simulated an increase in GPP. The diverging responses in 2000s can be attributed to the difference in the representation of the impact of water stress on vegetation in models, i.e., using VPD and/or precipitation. Spatial map of trend in simulated GPP using GIMMS 3g data is consistent with the GPP driven by soil moisture than the GPP driven by VPD, confirming the need for a soil moisture constraint in modeling global GPP.

Global Energy Trends - 2016 report. Towards a Peak in Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-06-01

Celebrating the 20. anniversary of this yearly publication, Enerdata has newly released its annual Global Energy Trends publication for 2016. The full report presents in-depth information on the energy markets as well as upcoming trends for all energies in the G20. With over 400 premium sources, Enerdata analysts highlight major developments in 2015 concerning global demand, supply and key indicators across the globe. The main trends outlined in the report are: - Economic slowdown: the lowest growth since 2002; - Almost no growth in energy consumption; - New decrease of energy intensity; - Stabilization of CO 2 -energy emissions; - INDC targets achievement requires a double breakthrough. The Global Energy Trends Analysis also provides additional graphs about trends by energy: - Coal: most consumed energy source in G20 countries; - Oil: fall in prices to around 40-50 US$/bbl; - Oil production: USA overtake Russia and catch up with Saudi Arabia; - Gas: Stabilisation of gas demand for the 2. consecutive year; - Electricity: Stagnation of electricity consumption; - Wind Power and Solar PV: Asia engine of development. Growth in energy consumption (%/year) for G20 countries: - Second consecutive year of decline: low growth and decrease in energy intensity; - India drives the energy consumption growth; - Near stagnation in China (after a first sharp slowdown in 2014); - Economic recession in Brazil and Russia; - USA: decrease primarily linked to the industrial sector (energy efficiency + less energy-intensive industry); - Rebound in Europe: economic growth + climate effect 2015/2014

Current trends in the global tourism industry: evidence from the United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nejdet Delener

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Tourism is one of the largest U.S. industries, serving millions of international and domestic tourists yearly. Tourists visit the U.S. to see natural wonders, cities, historic landmarks, and entertainment venues. Americans seek similar attractions as well as recreation and vacation areas. Tourism competes in the global market, so it is important to understand current trends in the U.S. travel industry. Therefore, this article offers insight into important trends and suggests strategies for policy makers involved in the travel and tourism industry.

Analysis of monotonic greening and browning trends from global NDVI time-series

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jong, de R.; Bruin, de S.; Wit, de A.J.W.; Schaepman, M.E.; Dent, D.L.

2011-01-01

Remotely sensed vegetation indices are widely used to detect greening and browning trends; especially the global coverage of time-series normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data which are available from 1981. Seasonality and serial auto-correlation in the data have previously been dealt

Evaluating the Long-term Water Cycle Trends at a Global-scale using Satellite and Assimilation Datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, H.; Lakshmi, V.

2017-12-01

Global-scale soil moisture and rainfall products retrieved from remotely sensed and assimilation datasets provide an effective way to monitor near surface soil moisture content and precipitation with sub-daily temporal resolution. In the present study, we employed the concept of the stored precipitation fraction Fp(f) in order to examine the long-term water cycle trends at a global-scale. The analysis was done for Fp(f) trends with the various geophysical aspects such as climate zone, land use classifications, amount of vegetation, and soil properties. Furthermore, we compared a global-scale Fp(f) using different microwave-based satellite soil moisture datasets. The Fp(f) is calculated by utilized surface soil moisture dataset from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity, Advanced Scatterometer, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2, and precipitation information from Global Precipitation Measurement Mission and Global Land Data Assimilation System. Different results from microwave-based soil moisture dataset showed discordant results particularly over arid and highly vegetated regions. The results of this study provide us new insights of the long-term water cycle trends over different land surface areas. Thereby also highlighting the advantages of the recently available GPM and SMAP datasets for the uses in various hydrometeorological applications.

Global trends in emerging viral diseases of wildlife origin

Science.gov (United States)

Sleeman, Jonathan M.; Ip, Hon S.

2015-01-01

Fifty years ago, infectious diseases were rarely considered threats to wildlife populations, and the study of wildlife diseases was largely a neglected endeavor. Furthermore, public health leaders at that time had declared that “it is time to close the book on infectious diseases and the war against pestilence won,” a quote attributed to Dr. William H. Stewart in 1967. There is some debate whether he actually said these words; however, they reflect the widespread belief at that time (Spellberg, 2008). Leap forward to today, and the book on infectious diseases has been dusted off. There is general consensus that the global environment favors the emergence of infectious diseases, and in particular, diseases of wildlife origin (Taylor et al., 2001). Examples of drivers of these infectious diseases include climate and landscape changes, human demographic and behavior changes, global travel and trade, microbial adaptation, and lack of appropriate infrastructure for wildlife disease control and prevention (Daszak et al., 2001). The consequences of these emerging diseases are global and profound with increased burden on the public health system, negative impacts on the global economy and food security, declines and extinctions of wildlife species, and subsequent loss of ecosystem integrity. For example, 35 million people are currently living with HIV infection globally (http://www.who.int/gho/hiv/en); 400 million poultry have been culled since 2003 as a result of efforts to control highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza (http://www.fao.org/avianflu/en/index.html), and there are increasing biological and ecological consequences.

[Considerations concerning the theory of the demographic revolution. Its development in Cuba].

Science.gov (United States)

Hernandez Castellon, R

1983-01-01

A review of the world's literature on the demographic transition is presented. The author, in his analysis of the non-Marxist literature, suggests that considerable efforts have been made to update demographic transition theory in order to take into account recent demographic trends in developing countries. On the other hand, the Marxist literature is divided into studies in which attempts are made to develop general demographic theories and those in which the value of such theories is questioned. The paper concludes with a description of the demographic transition process as it has been experienced in Cuba, and it is noted that a major feature of this process has been a general trend toward a reduction in demographic differentials.

2014 Global Energy Trends: a year full of surprises. Based on its 2014 data for G20 countries, Enerdata analyses the trends in the world energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2015-01-01

According to the 2014 Global Energy Trends publication, Enerdata points out 2014 as a remarkable year with a near stagnation in energy demand and CO_2 emissions despite economic growth. The G20's 2014 Key Energy figures: +3.5% Economic Growth; +0.3% (10.8 Gtep) Energy consumption stagnation; -0.2% (26 GtCO_2) CO_2 emissions stabilizations. The main trends derived from the publication are: - Historical stagnation in energy consumption; - Stabilisation in CO_2 emissions; - Global energy consumption stabilisation is reflected everywhere: - 0 growth for gas, - Fall in coal consumption, - Slight increase in electricity consumption. The Global Energy Trends Analysis also provides additional graphs on such topics as: Coal: most consumed energy source in G20 countries; Oil: 50% fall in international prices; Oil: demand continues to slightly increase; Gas: high impact of climate on gas consumption. (authors)

The digital divide: Trends in global mobile and broadband Internet access from 2000–2010

Science.gov (United States)

Ronquillo, Charlene; Currie, Leanne

2012-01-01

The digital divide is described as the gap between those who do and do not have access to digital information and communications technologies (ICT). ICTs are viewed as an indicator of infrastructure and potential for development, and are a growing platform for health information and services delivery. This study compares the penetration of mobile and broadband Internet technologies by global region from 2000 to 2010. Results illustrate the rapid growth of mobile cellular telephone subscriptions in all global regions with trends suggesting a continued increase. Little to modest gains were made in fixed broadband Internet subscriptions globally. There is a growing popularity of mobile subscriptions with use of data communications, exceeding the numbers of fixed Internet subscriptions. This comparison reveals current strengths that can be built on and highlights the importance of awareness of global trends and using such knowledge to inform design and delivery of ICT-based health services. PMID:24199118

Dancing with Global Trends: Higher Education Policy and University Governance in Hong Kong, 1997-2012

Science.gov (United States)

Lo, William Yat Wai; Tang, Hei-Hang Hayes

2017-01-01

This article examines the significance of global trends in higher education (HE) development in Hong Kong between 1997 and 2012. Two trends, massification and internationalisation, are considered key driving forces that shaped Hong Kong's HE policy during the period. The former refers to government measures to widen participation in HE. The latter…

Depiction of global trends in publications on mobile health

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shahla Foozonkhah

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Background: Variety of mobile health initiatives in different levels have been undertaken across many countries. Trends of these initiatives can be reflected in the research published in m-health domain. Aim: This paper aims to depict global trends in the published works on m-health topic. Materials and Methods: The Web of Science database was used to identify all relevant published papers on mobile health domain worldwide. The search was conducted on documents published from January 1898 to December 2014. The criteria for searching were set to be “mHealth” or “Mobile health” or “m health” or “m_health” or “m-health” in topics. Results: Findings revealed an increasing trend of citations and publications on m-health research since 2012. English was the first most predominant language of the publication. The US had the highest number of publication with 649 papers; however, the Netherlands ranked first after considering publication number in terms of countries population. “Studies in Health Technology and Informatics” was the source title with highest number of publications on mobile health topics. Conclusion: Trend of research observed in this study indicates the continuing growth is happening in mobile health domain. This may imply that the new model of health-care delivery is emerging. Further research is needed to specify directions of mobile health research. It is necessary to identify and prioritize the research gaps in this domain.

The Global Saving Glut in the light of demographic developments : a numerical simulation of the developments in China and the US

OpenAIRE

Pettersen, Malin Karlberg; Håland, Marianne

2016-01-01

The objective of this thesis is to predict how demographic developments will affect the Global Saving Glut. The thesis examines how the changes in the age structure in China and the US are affecting their respective aggregate savings rates. Ben Bernanke was the first economist to mention the term Global Saving Glut, which describes an economy where desired saving exceeds desired investment. He states that the increase in the global supply of savings was one of the main reasons ...

A two-dimensional model study of past trends in global ozone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wuebbles, D.J.; Kinnison, D.E.

1988-08-01

Emissions and atmospheric concentrations of several trace gases important to atmospheric chemistry are known to have increased substantially over recent decades. Solar flux variations and the atmospheric nuclear test series are also likely to have affected stratospheric ozone. In this study, the LLNL two-dimensional chemical-radiative-transport model of the troposphere and stratosphere has been applied to an analysis of the effects that these natural and anthropogenic influences may have had on global ozone concentrations over the last three decades. In general, model determined species distributions and the derived ozone trends agree well with published analyses of land-based and satellite-based observations. Also, the total ozone and ozone distribution trends derived from CFC and other trace gas effects have a different response with latitude than the derived trends from solar flux variations, thus providing a ''signature'' for anthropogenic effects on ozone. 24 refs., 5 figs

Trends and Variability of Global Fire Emissions Due To Historical Anthropogenic Activities

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, Daniel S.; Shevliakova, Elena; Malyshev, Sergey; Rabin, Sam

2018-01-01

Globally, fires are a major source of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere, occurring on a seasonal cycle and with substantial interannual variability. To understand past trends and variability in sources and sinks of terrestrial carbon, we need quantitative estimates of global fire distributions. Here we introduce an updated version of the Fire Including Natural and Agricultural Lands model, version 2 (FINAL.2), modified to include multiday burning and enhanced fire spread rate in forest crowns. We demonstrate that the improved model reproduces the interannual variability and spatial distribution of fire emissions reported in present-day remotely sensed inventories. We use FINAL.2 to simulate historical (post-1700) fires and attribute past fire trends and variability to individual drivers: land use and land cover change, population growth, and lightning variability. Global fire emissions of carbon increase by about 10% between 1700 and 1900, reaching a maximum of 3.4 Pg C yr-1 in the 1910s, followed by a decrease to about 5% below year 1700 levels by 2010. The decrease in emissions from the 1910s to the present day is driven mainly by land use change, with a smaller contribution from increased fire suppression due to increased human population and is largest in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Interannual variability of global fire emissions is similar in the present day as in the early historical period, but present-day wildfires would be more variable in the absence of land use change.

Spatial and Temporal Variability and Trends in 2001-2016 Global Fire Activity

Science.gov (United States)

Earl, Nick; Simmonds, Ian

2018-03-01

Fire regimes across the globe have great spatial and temporal variability, and these are influence by many factors including anthropogenic management, climate, and vegetation types. Here we utilize the satellite-based "active fire" product, from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors, to statistically analyze variability and trends in fire activity from the global to regional scales. We split up the regions by economic development, region/geographical land use, clusters of fire-abundant areas, or by religious/cultural influence. Weekly cycle tests are conducted to highlight and quantify part of the anthropogenic influence on fire regime across the world. We find that there is a strong statistically significant decline in 2001-2016 active fires globally linked to an increase in net primary productivity observed in northern Africa, along with global agricultural expansion and intensification, which generally reduces fire activity. There are high levels of variability, however. The large-scale regions exhibit either little change or decreasing in fire activity except for strong increasing trends in India and China, where rapid population increase is occurring, leading to agricultural intensification and increased crop residue burning. Variability in Canada has been linked to a warming global climate leading to a longer growing season and higher fuel loads. Areas with a strong weekly cycle give a good indication of where fire management is being applied most extensively, for example, the United States, where few areas retain a natural fire regime.

Multilingual trends in a globalized world prospects and challenges

CERN Document Server

Singh, Navin Kumar

2013-01-01

This book presents evolving language education trends by drawing examples and case studies from around the world. Over the past few decades, significant economic and political changes have taken place around the world which have had a significant impact on language teaching and learning practices across the globe. With globalization, the focus of language education has shifted from monolingualism towards bilingualism and multilingualism, in that multilingual practices have become the norm rather than the exception in most parts of the world. This book brings together some of latest controversi

Epidemiological and demographic HIV/AIDS projections: South Africa

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Epidemiological and demographic HIV/AIDS projections: South Africa. ... African Journal of AIDS Research ... Projections and the Spectrum model program developed by the Futures Group were used to model the South African HIV epidemic, project future trends in HIV/AIDS and estimate the demographic impact of AIDS.

The Effects of Chinese Dietary Trends on Global and Local Land Use

Science.gov (United States)

Anthony, J.

2015-12-01

Global land scarcity is a major concern, which, due to climate change, lifestyle changes, and population growth, will only continue to worsen. It is a major driver of global environmental degradation, famine, and sociopolitical conflicts. With some 33% of the world's dwindling supply of arable land dedicated to grossly inefficient animal husbandry or animal feed production, it is easy to see that dietary consumption patterns play an important role. Although population growth in East Asia has stagnated, changing dietary trends mean that China is now the world's largest consumers of meat, consuming 25% of global meat production, despite having less than half of the American per capita equivalent. This paper assesses changing dietary consumption patterns of Taiwan, whose current per capita meat consumption surpasses all other East Asian countries, over the past 30 years and considers the relationship this has had on overall land consumption. We then consider dietary trends of Mainland China, which shares a common cultural heritage and whose current Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is similar to Taiwanese PPP levels in 1985. Finally we retrospectively project three alternative Taiwanese consumption patterns over the past 30 years, consider the effect of each scenario on per capita land consumption, and finally consider these results in terms of culturally analogues Mainland China.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Pakistan: National Trends and Global Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Hafeez Bhatti, Abu Bakar; Dar, Faisal Saud; Waheed, Anum; Shafique, Kashif; Sultan, Faisal; Shah, Najmul Hassan

2016-01-01

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) ranks second amongst all causes of cancer deaths globally. It is on a rise in Pakistan and might represent the most common cancer in adult males. Pakistan contributes significantly to global burden of hepatitis C, which is a known risk factor for HCC, and has one of the highest prevalence rates (>3%) in the world. In the absence of a national cancer registry and screening programs, prevalence of hepatitis and HCC only represents estimates of the real magnitude of this problem. In this review, we present various aspects of HCC in Pakistan, comparing and contrasting it with the global trends in cancer care. There is a general lack of awareness regarding risk factors of HCC in Pakistani population and prevalence of hepatitis C has increased. In addition, less common risk factors are also on a rise. Majority of patients present with advanced HCC and are not eligible for definitive treatment. We have attempted to highlight issues that have a significant bearing on HCC outcome in Pakistan. A set of strategies have been put forth that can potentially help reduce incidence and improve HCC outcome on national level. PMID:26955390

Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Pakistan: National Trends and Global Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abu Bakar Hafeez Bhatti

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC ranks second amongst all causes of cancer deaths globally. It is on a rise in Pakistan and might represent the most common cancer in adult males. Pakistan contributes significantly to global burden of hepatitis C, which is a known risk factor for HCC, and has one of the highest prevalence rates (>3% in the world. In the absence of a national cancer registry and screening programs, prevalence of hepatitis and HCC only represents estimates of the real magnitude of this problem. In this review, we present various aspects of HCC in Pakistan, comparing and contrasting it with the global trends in cancer care. There is a general lack of awareness regarding risk factors of HCC in Pakistani population and prevalence of hepatitis C has increased. In addition, less common risk factors are also on a rise. Majority of patients present with advanced HCC and are not eligible for definitive treatment. We have attempted to highlight issues that have a significant bearing on HCC outcome in Pakistan. A set of strategies have been put forth that can potentially help reduce incidence and improve HCC outcome on national level.

Scientometric trends and knowledge maps of global health systems research.

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Qiang; Chen, Kai; Yao, Lan; Lyu, Peng-hui; Yang, Tian-an; Luo, Fei; Chen, Shan-quan; He, Lu-yang; Liu, Zhi-yong

2014-06-05

In the last few decades, health systems research (HSR) has garnered much attention with a rapid increase in the related literature. This study aims to review and evaluate the global progress in HSR and assess the current quantitative trends. Based on data from the Web of Science database, scientometric methods and knowledge visualization techniques were applied to evaluate global scientific production and develop trends of HSR from 1900 to 2012. HSR has increased rapidly over the past 20 years. Currently, there are 28,787 research articles published in 3,674 journals that are listed in 140 Web of Science subject categories. The research in this field has mainly focused on public, environmental and occupational health (6,178, 21.46%), health care sciences and services (5,840, 20.29%), and general and internal medicine (3,783, 13.14%). The top 10 journals had published 2,969 (10.31%) articles and received 5,229 local citations and 40,271 global citations. The top 20 authors together contributed 628 papers, which accounted for a 2.18% share in the cumulative worldwide publications. The most productive author was McKee, from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, with 48 articles. In addition, USA and American institutions ranked the first in health system research productivity, with high citation times, followed by the UK and Canada. HSR is an interdisciplinary area. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries showed they are the leading nations in HSR. Meanwhile, American and Canadian institutions and the World Health Organization play a dominant role in the production, collaboration, and citation of high quality articles. Moreover, health policy and analysis research, health systems and sub-systems research, healthcare and services research, health, epidemiology and economics of communicable and non-communicable diseases, primary care research, health economics and health costs, and pharmacy of hospital have been identified as the

OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS OF GLOBALIZATION IN RURAL AREAS. CASE STUDY: BOTOSANI COUNTY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria-Simona Cuciureanu

2014-04-01

Full Text Available The global economy plays an important role in the development of a region or a county/district as it promotes the exploitation of resources and space in a logical and rational manner. The trend of global economic uniformity allows opportunities and risks to Botoșani County since globalization involves economic development and rising living standards, but loss of cultural values, traditions and customs. The area of study currently confronts with socio-economic and demographic changes that may be addressed by globalization, but at the same time spatial development according to global standards will cause the loss of Botoșani County’s authenticity.

[Ideas on socioeconomic and cultural determinants of demographic trends].

Science.gov (United States)

Ramirez, N

1987-01-01

Despite numerous attempts, little progress has been made in developing generally applicable theories concerning the social, economic, and cultural determinants of demographic change. The diversity of the intervening factors and the variability of their influence in different societies hinder theoretical development. The so-called intermediate variables of Davis and Blake gained widespread acceptance, but had less explanatory power than factors situated closer to the beginning of the causal chain. Bongaarts has demonstrated that just 4 proximal fertility determinants account for almost all the observed fertility differences at the global level. Historical declines in fertility are usually attributed to factors related to modernization, but no precise identification or organization of these factors has been achieved. The factors most frequently invoked to explain fertility changes in the developed countries include loss of functions of the family, mortality decline, increases in social mobility, greater economic and social participation of women, and increased educational level. Analysis of historical data shows that there is no unique combination of social changes that permit explanation of fertility declines in different countries and periods, and none of the factors alone can be considered a prerequisite for fertility decline. Although income in recent decades is usually negatively related to fertility, in Europe until the mid-19th century it was usually positively related. Gary Becker and Richard Easterlin have attempted to explain why the relationship is negative, focusing on the fertility effects of parental aspirations. The historical-structural school that began to develop in the mid-1960s emphasizes characteristics of LAtin American underdevelopment and resulting social structures as determinants of demographic behavior. Fertility levels are explained by reference to the different survival strategies adopted by families with different forms of insertion in

Trends and demographics in hip arthroscopy in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Montgomery, Scott R; Ngo, Stephanie S; Hobson, Taylor; Nguyen, Shawn; Alluri, Ram; Wang, Jeffrey C; Hame, Sharon L

2013-04-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the trends and report on the demographics of patients undergoing hip arthroscopy in the United States. Patients who underwent hip arthroscopy from 2004 to 2009 were identified by searching Current Procedural Terminology codes in the PearlDiver Patient Records Database (PearlDiver Technologies, Fort Wayne, IN), a national database of orthopaedic insurance records. The year of procedure, age, gender, and region of the United States were recorded for each patient. Results were reported for each variable as the incidence of procedures identified per 10,000 patients searched in the database. In total, 3,447 cases of hip arthroscopy were identified between 2004 and 2009. The incidence of procedures increased significantly over the study period, from 1.20 cases per 10,000 patients in 2004 to 5.58 in 2009 (P arthroscopy was performed most commonly in patients aged 20 to 39 years (P arthroscopy was observed in the Western region with an incidence of 5.24 cases identified compared with 2.94, 2.70, and 2.56 in the Northeast, Midwest, and South, respectively (P arthroscopy was observed in the examined cohort of patients between 2004 and 2009. The majority of cases were performed in patients aged 20 to 39 years, with no difference in gender. The Western region of the United States was found to have a higher incidence of hip arthroscopy compared with the Midwest, South, and Northeast. Level IV, cross-sectional study. Copyright © 2013 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

MGIMO-University in “Go To Think Tanks” 2015 Ranking: Global Trends, Local Responses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maxim V. Kharkevich

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article discusses the latest issue of Go to think tank ranking and MGIMO position in it. It also considers global trends related to changes in the environment and forms of activities of research centers, identified by the ranking. In particular, it notes the changes in the system of financing think tanks from the few large grants for an extended period of time to a small but numerous grants for short periods for specific projects. It also notes the increasing state pressure on think tanks from around the world. In addition, it points to increased competition on the market of ideas and scientific expertise. Research centers have to adapt to these changes. In view of these trends the experience of one of the research centers of MGIMO, the Center for Military-Political Studies is considered. Innovation activities of the Centre on a whole corresponds to global trends. The center is seeking to diversify its sources of funding and enhances the focus of research topics - long-term forecasting of the international military and political relations.

Global trends and priorities for agriculture development in the beginning of the xxi century

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pavel Vasil’evich Smekalov

2011-12-01

Full Text Available This paper pays attention to global issues related to the growth of population and food production: reduced growth rate of agricultural production, reduction of resource potential of agriculture and others. Critical factors and trends of structural changes in agriculture are identified. Results of comparative analysis of the development of farms in European countries and Russia are presented. Studies have shown that at the end of the last century there have been the following trends in the global agriculture: there has been a trend of farm consolidation in size, new controls and control of production are were introduced as well as more stringent quality standards of ecology were launched, which, in turn, require introduction of new technics and technologies; the processes of plants and animals development become more controllable and manageable. Conseptual foresights of pricing in the food market are given. Priority areas of agricultural policy aimed at creating conditions for sustainable rural development and accelerated growth in agricultural production by improving its competitiveness are identified

[The demographic potential of Russia].

Science.gov (United States)

Vishnevskii, A

1998-05-01

This is a general review of current demographic trends in Russia. The author analyzes the decline in population size that is taking place at the end of the twentieth century, and traces its origins as far back as the disturbances associated with World War I, the Communist revolution, and the civil war that followed it. Political repression during the Stalinist period and the tribulations experienced during World War II also contributed to the current demographic crisis. The author discusses the changes in migration patterns and the declining fertility and increasing mortality rates. The decline in life expectancy is also addressed. Some comparisons are made with the demographic situation in other European countries.

Demographic Trends of Adults in New York City Opioid Treatment Programs--An Aging Population.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Benjamin; Polydorou, Soteri; Ferris, Rosie; Blaum, Caroline S; Ross, Stephen; McNeely, Jennifer

2015-01-01

The population of adults accessing opioid treatment is growing older, but exact estimates vary widely, and little is known about the characteristics of the aging treatment population. Further, there has been little research regarding the epidemiology, healt h status, and functional impairments in this population. To determine the utilization of opioid treatment services by older adults in New York City. This study used administrative data from New York State licensed drug treatment programs to examine overall age trends and characteristics of older adults in opioid treatment programs in New York City from 1996 to 2012. We found significant increases in utilization of opioid treatment programs by older adults in New York City. By 2012, those aged 50-59 made up the largest age group in opioid treatment programs. Among older adults there were notable shifts in demographic background including gender and ethnicity, and an increase in self-reported impairments. More research is needed to fully understand the specific characteristics and needs of older adults with opioid dependence.

Can trade opportunities and returns be generated in a trend persistent series? Evidence from global indices

Science.gov (United States)

Mitra, S. K.; Bawa, Jaslene

2017-03-01

In this study, we explore the possibility of generating trade opportunities and returns when a financial stock index series is trend persistent. Through application of Hurst coefficient based on the modified range to standard deviation analysis (Weron, 2002) in a sample of 31 leading global indices during the period December 2000 to November 2015, we found periods of trend persistence. We developed and tested a set of trading strategies on these periods of trend persistent in the financial series and found that significant positive returns can be generated when a series displayed upward trend persistence.

 Project Management as a Global Trend for Organization Work

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kampf, Constance

in multination and global companies, understanding the power of visual rhetoric, genre and writing processes in the context of project management documentation can be an advantage for technical communicators.  In addition, project management tools and online documentation spaces are objects which cross...... Project Management as a Global Trend for Organization Work: Implications for Technical Communication Project Management tools and processes offer a visual approach to producing knowledge about a project in order to complete it.  As project management practices are used with increasing frequency......-cultural teams use to function.  This presentation will explore the potential of Project Management to be tightly integrated in Technical Communication curricula through a communications approach to project management.  Questions for discussion include: How tightly is project management integrated into different...

Demographic Subgroup Trends among Adolescents in the Use of Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1975-2013. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 81

Science.gov (United States)

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.

2014-01-01

This occasional paper presents national demographic subgroup trends for U.S. secondary school students in a series of figures and tables. It supplements two of four annual monographs from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study, namely the "Overview of Key Findings" and "Volume I: Secondary School Students." MTF is funded by the…

Trends and opportunities abroad, 1987: an annual special publication of International Demographics.

Science.gov (United States)

1986-12-01

To facilitate understanding of the consumer market potential of today's world, "International Demographics" clusters the world's 150 largest countries based on their demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. The names of the 5 clusters--The Dependents, The Seekers, The Climbers, The Ultimate Consumers, and The Rocking Chairs--help identify the kind of consumer markets the countries represent. The 150 countries included in this 1987 volume are considered potential markets and are organized by cluster. All data cited are the most current numbers available, and all population estimates are the latest projections by the Center for International Research, US Census Bureau. Population trends of the next 14 years will change existing markets, and open new markets. However, due to rapid population growth in the poorest of the world economy, the Dependent countries, only intensified efforts on the part of the countries themselves and increased assistance from the international development community can pull these countries up. The sheer size of the market in Seeker and Climber countries is sufficient to indicate increased consumer demand. Add to that increasing income, the predominance of youth, and the ongoing rural-to-urban shift, and it is clear that demand will center on consumer durables for beginning families as the large proportions of youth will center on consumer durables for beginning families as the large proportions of youth enter their prime spending years of 15-64. Construction, sanitation, power, telecommunications, and transport are expected to boom as youth add pressure to urban job markets and housing. Slowed or stagnated growth in the rapidly aging Ultimate Consumer and Rocking Chair countries tells a different story. Some Rocking Chair countries such as West Germany already are experiencing natural decrease. Market growth in the Ultimate Consumer and Rocking Chair countries is geared to the increasingly sophisticated tastes and needs of the elderly

Spatially explicit trends in the global conservation status of vertebrates.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodrigues, Ana S L; Brooks, Thomas M; Butchart, Stuart H M; Chanson, Janice; Cox, Neil; Hoffmann, Michael; Stuart, Simon N

2014-01-01

The world's governments have committed to preventing the extinction of threatened species and improving their conservation status by 2020. However, biodiversity is not evenly distributed across space, and neither are the drivers of its decline, and so different regions face very different challenges. Here, we quantify the contribution of regions and countries towards recent global trends in vertebrate conservation status (as measured by the Red List Index), to guide action towards the 2020 target. We found that>50% of the global deterioration in the conservation status of birds, mammals and amphibians is concentrated in nations (e.g. Cook Islands, Fiji, Mauritius, Seychelles, and Tonga), have achieved net improvements. Per capita wealth does not explain these patterns, with two of the richest countries - United States and Australia - fairing conspicuously poorly. Different countries were affected by different combinations of threats. Reducing global rates of biodiversity loss will require investment in the regions and countries with the highest responsibility for the world's biodiversity, focusing on conserving those species and areas most in peril and on reducing the drivers with the highest impacts.

International nurse migrations: Global trends

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Ivković Marija

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents global trends of migration of nurses, as specific qualified personnel in high demand. In the last couple of decades, and especially in the last couple of years, many countries have faced the problem of insufficient healthcare workers, particularly nurses. Reasons for this occurrence might be found in the deficiencies of their education systems, as well as the population aging of northern and western countries. As a response to this deficiency, those countries have begun intensive recruitment of foreign qualified female healthcare workers, which has led to the point that nurse migration today presents a very intense, and by many accounts specific migration flow. Female migrating work force is often in pursuit of low-wage and lowqualified work. Nurse migration is actually an example of motion of qualified female migrants in pursuit for better employment opportunities. While such a way of filling up the vacant positions works for the “importing” countries as a temporary solution, departure of trained female personnel presents a significant loss for the originating countries. In this paper we pay special attention to the countries who are the main “importers”, but also to those who are “exporters” of nursing personnel, and to specific national strategies these countries have applied.

A global single-sensor analysis of 2002-2011 tropospheric nitrogen dioxide trends observed from space

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, P.; van der A, R. J.

2012-08-01

A global nine-year archive of monthly tropospheric NO2 data acquired by the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY (SCIAMACHY) instrument was analyzed with respect to trends between August 2002 and August 2011. In the past, similar studies relied on combining data from multiple sensors; however, the length of the SCIAMACHY data set now for the first time allows utilization of a consistent time series from just a single sensor for mapping NO2 trends at comparatively high horizontal resolution (0.25°). This study provides an updated analysis of global patterns in NO2 trends and finds that previously reported decreases in tropospheric NO2 over Europe and the United States as well as strong increases over China and several megacities in Asia have continued in recent years. Positive trends of up to 4.05 (±0.41) × 1015 molecules cm-2 yr-1 and up to 19.7 (±1.9) % yr-1 were found over China, with the regional mean trend being 7.3 (±3.1) % yr-1. The megacity with the most rapid relative increase was found to be Dhaka in Bangladesh. Subsequently focusing on Europe, the study further analyzes trends by country and finds significantly decreasing trends for seven countries ranging from -3.0 (±1.6) % yr-1 to -4.5 (±2.3) % yr-1. A comparison of the satellite data with station data indicates that the trends derived from both sources show substantial differences on the station scale, i.e., when comparing a station trend directly with the equivalent satellite-derived trend at the same location, but provide quite similar large-scale spatial patterns. Finally, the SCIAMACHY-derived NO2 trends are compared with equivalent trends in NO2concentration computed using the Co-operative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP) model. The results show that the spatial patterns in trends computed from both data sources mostly agree in Central and Western Europe, whereas substantial differences

The Demographic Wave: Rethinking Hispanic AP Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Kelcey; Sawtell, Ellen

2013-01-01

Presented at the Advanced Placement Annual Conference (APAC) in Las Vegas, NV in July 2013. This presentation reviews new research examining the AP® experience of Hispanic graduates over the past decade. Topics include an in-depth look at the AP Spanish Language and Culture gateway hypothesis and trends in family characteristics such as parent…

The influence of globalization on medical regulation: a descriptive analysis of international medical graduates registered through alternative licensure routes in Ontario

Science.gov (United States)

Yen, Wendy; Hodwitz, Kathryn; Thakkar, Niels; Martimianakis, Maria Athina (Tina); Faulkner, Dan

2016-01-01

The increasing globalization of the medical profession has influenced health policy, health human resource planning, and medical regulation in Canada. Since the early 2000s, numerous policy initiatives have been created to facilitate the entry of international medical graduates (IMGs) into the Canadian workforce. In Ontario, the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario (CPSO) developed alternative licensure routes to increase the ability of qualified IMGs to obtain licenses to practice. The current study provides demographic and descriptive information about the IMGs registered through the CPSO’s alternative licensure routes between 2000 and 2012. An analysis of the characteristics and career trajectories of all IMGs practicing in the province sheds light on broader globalization trends and raises questions about the future of health human resource planning in Canada. As the medical profession becomes increasingly globalized, health policy and regulation will continue to be influenced by trends in international migration, concerns about global health equity, and the shifting demographics of the Canadian physician workforce. Implications for future policy development in the complex landscape of medical education and practice are discussed. PMID:28344705

The influence of globalization on medical regulation: a descriptive analysis of international medical graduates registered through alternative licensure routes in Ontario.

Science.gov (United States)

Yen, Wendy; Hodwitz, Kathryn; Thakkar, Niels; Martimianakis, Maria Athina Tina; Faulkner, Dan

2016-12-01

The increasing globalization of the medical profession has influenced health policy, health human resource planning, and medical regulation in Canada. Since the early 2000s, numerous policy initiatives have been created to facilitate the entry of international medical graduates (IMGs) into the Canadian workforce. In Ontario, the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario (CPSO) developed alternative licensure routes to increase the ability of qualified IMGs to obtain licenses to practice. The current study provides demographic and descriptive information about the IMGs registered through the CPSO's alternative licensure routes between 2000 and 2012. An analysis of the characteristics and career trajectories of all IMGs practicing in the province sheds light on broader globalization trends and raises questions about the future of health human resource planning in Canada. As the medical profession becomes increasingly globalized, health policy and regulation will continue to be influenced by trends in international migration, concerns about global health equity, and the shifting demographics of the Canadian physician workforce. Implications for future policy development in the complex landscape of medical education and practice are discussed.

The influence of globalization on medical regulation: a descriptive analysis of international medical graduates registered through alternative licensure routes in Ontario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wendy Yen

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The increasing globalization of the medical profession has influenced health policy, health human resource planning, and medical regulation in Canada. Since the early 2000s, numerous policy initiatives have been created to facilitate the entry of international medical graduates (IMGs into the Canadian workforce. In Ontario, the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario (CPSO developed alternative licensure routes to increase the ability of qualified IMGs to obtain licenses to practice. The current study provides demographic and descriptive information about the IMGs registered through the CPSO’s alternative licensure routes between 2000 and 2012. An analysis of the characteristics and career trajectories of all IMGs practicing in the province sheds light on broader globalization trends and raises questions about the future of health human resource planning in Canada. As the medical profession becomes increasingly globalized, health policy and regulation will continue to be influenced by trends in international migration, concerns about global health equity, and the shifting demographics of the Canadian physician workforce. Implications for future policy development in the complex landscape of medical education and practice are discussed.

Trends in stunting and overweight in Peruvian pre-schoolers from 1991 to 2011: findings from the Demographic and Health Surveys.

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Urke, Helga Bjørnøy; Mittelmark, Maurice B; Valdivia, Martín

2014-11-01

To examine trends in stunting and overweight in Peruvian children, using 2006 WHO Multicentre Growth Reference Study criteria. Trend analyses using nationally representative cross-sectional surveys from Demographic and Health Surveys (1991-2011). We performed logistic regression analyses of stunting and overweight trends in sociodemographic groups (sex, age, urban-rural residence, region, maternal education and household wealth), adjusted for sampling design effects (strata, clusters and sampling weights). Peru. Children aged 0-59 months surveyed in 1991-92 (n 7999), 1996 (n 14 877), 2000 (n 11 754), 2007-08 (n 8232) and 2011 (n 8186). Child stunting declined (F(1, 5149) = 174·8, P ≤ 0·00) and child overweight was stable in the period 1991-2011 (F(1, 5147) = 0·4, P ≤ 0·54). Over the study period, levels of stunting were highest in rural compared with urban areas, the Andean and Amazon regions compared with the Coast, among children of low-educated mothers and among children living in households in the poorest wealth quintile. The trend in overweight rose among males in coastal areas (F(1, 2250) = 4·779, P ≤ 0·029) and among males in the richest wealth quintile (F(1, 1730) = 5·458, P ≤ 0·020). The 2011 levels of stunting and overweight were eight times and three and a half times higher, respectively, than the expected levels from the 2006 WHO growth standards. The trend over the study period in stunting declined in most sociodemographic subgroups. The trend in overweight was stable in most sociodemographic subgroups.

On Global Electricity Usage of Communication Technology: Trends to 2030

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Anders S. G. Andrae

2015-04-01

Full Text Available This work presents an estimation of the global electricity usage that can be ascribed to Communication Technology (CT between 2010 and 2030. The scope is three scenarios for use and production of consumer devices, communication networks and data centers. Three different scenarios, best, expected, and worst, are set up, which include annual numbers of sold devices, data traffic and electricity intensities/efficiencies. The most significant trend, regardless of scenario, is that the proportion of use-stage electricity by consumer devices will decrease and will be transferred to the networks and data centers. Still, it seems like wireless access networks will not be the main driver for electricity use. The analysis shows that for the worst-case scenario, CT could use as much as 51% of global electricity in 2030. This will happen if not enough improvement in electricity efficiency of wireless access networks and fixed access networks/data centers is possible. However, until 2030, globally-generated renewable electricity is likely to exceed the electricity demand of all networks and data centers. Nevertheless, the present investigation suggests, for the worst-case scenario, that CT electricity usage could contribute up to 23% of the globally released greenhouse gas emissions in 2030.

Global trends in significant wave height and marine wind speed from the ERA-20CM

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Aarnes, Ole Johan; Breivik, Øyvind

2016-04-01

The ERA-20CM is one of the latest additions to the ERA-series produced at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). This 10 member ensemble is generated with a version of the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), a coupled atmosphere-wave model. The model integration is run as a AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) constrained by CMIP5 recommended radiative forcing and different realizations of sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice cover (SIC) prescribed by the HadISST2 (Met Office Hadley Center). While the ERA-20CM is unable to reproduce the actual synoptic conditions, it is designed to offer a realistic statistical representation of the past climate, spanning the period 1899-2010. In this study we investigate global trends in significant wave height and marine wind speed based on ERA-20CM, using monthly mean data, upper percentiles and monthly/annual maxima. The aim of the study is to assess the quality of the trends and how these estimates are affected by different SST and SIC. Global trends are compared against corresponding estimates obtained with ERA-Interim (1979-2009), but also crosschecked against ERA-20C - an ECMWF pilot reanalysis of the 20th-century, known to most trustworthy in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Over the period 1900-2009, the 10 member ensemble yields trends mainly within +/- 5% per century. However, significant trends of opposite signs are found locally. Certain areas, like the eastern equatorial Pacific, highly affected by the El Niño Southern Oscillation, show stronger trends. In general, trends based on statistical quantities further into the tail of the distribution are found less reliable.

The age demographics of academic librarians a profession apart

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Wilder, Stanley

2000-01-01

The Age Demographics of Academic Librarians: A Profession Apart discusses the current demographics of librarianship in North America and examines how a huge retiree rate will affect the profession. With the average age of librarians increasing dramatically since 1990, this book examines the changes that will have to take place in your library, such as recruiting, training, and working with a smaller staff. The Age Demographics of Academic Librarians provides you with insights on how to make your library's transition easier when several of your colleagues leave your library. Valuable and intelligent, The Age Demographics of Academic Librarians discusses trends through easy-to-read charts, tables, and comprehensive data analysis. Exploring possible reasons for the anomalies of this trend, this book explores several surprising facts, such as: 16 percent of the 1995 American Research Libraries population of librarians will retire by the year 2000, another 16 percent between 2000 and 2005, 24 percent between 2005 ...

Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend

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Huang, Jianbin; Zhang, Xiangdong; Zhang, Qiyi; Lin, Yanluan; Hao, Mingju; Luo, Yong; Zhao, Zongci; Yao, Yao; Chen, Xin; Wang, Lei; Nie, Suping; Yin, Yizhou; Xu, Ying; Zhang, Jiansong

2017-12-01

The existence and magnitude of the recently suggested global warming hiatus, or slowdown, have been strongly debated1-3. Although various physical processes4-8 have been examined to elucidate this phenomenon, the accuracy and completeness of observational data that comprise global average surface air temperature (SAT) datasets is a concern9,10. In particular, these datasets lack either complete geographic coverage or in situ observations over the Arctic, owing to the sparse observational network in this area9. As a consequence, the contribution of Arctic warming to global SAT changes may have been underestimated, leading to an uncertainty in the hiatus debate. Here, we constructed a new Arctic SAT dataset using the most recently updated global SATs2 and a drifting buoys based Arctic SAT dataset11 through employing the `data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions' method12. Our estimate of global SAT rate of increase is around 0.112 °C per decade, instead of 0.05 °C per decade from IPCC AR51, for 1998-2012. Analysis of this dataset shows that the amplified Arctic warming over the past decade has significantly contributed to a continual global warming trend, rather than a hiatus or slowdown.

Internet-Based Digital Simulation for Cleft Surgery Education: A 5-Year Assessment of Demographics, Usage, and Global Effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Kantar, Rami S; Plana, Natalie M; Cutting, Court B; Diaz-Siso, Jesus Rodrigo; Flores, Roberto L

2018-01-29

In October 2012, a freely available, internet-based cleft simulator was created in partnership between academic, nonprofit, and industry sectors. The purpose of this educational resource was to address global disparities in cleft surgery education. This report assesses demographics, usage, and global effect of our simulator, in its fifth year since inception. Evaluate the global effect, usage, and demographics of an internet-based educational digital simulation cleft surgery software. Simulator modules, available in five languages demonstrate surgical anatomy, markings, detailed procedures, and intraoperative footage to supplement digital animation. Available data regarding number of users, sessions, countries reached, and content access were recorded. Surveys evaluating the demographic characteristics of registered users and simulator use were collected by direct e-mail. The total number of simulator new and active users reached 2865 and 4086 in June 2017, respectively. By June 2017, users from 136 countries had accessed the simulator. From 2015 to 2017, the number of sessions was 11,176 with a monthly average of 399.0 ± 190.0. Developing countries accounted for 35% of sessions and the average session duration was 9.0 ± 7.3 minutes. This yields a total simulator screen time of 100,584 minutes (1676 hours). Most survey respondents were surgeons or trainees (87%) specializing in plastic, maxillofacial, or general surgery (89%). Most users found the simulator to be useful (88%), at least equivalent or more useful than other resources (83%), and used it for teaching (58%). Our internet-based interactive cleft surgery platform reaches its intended target audience, is not restricted by socioeconomic barriers to access, and is judged to be useful by surgeons. More than 4000 active users have been reached since inception. The total screen time over approximately 2 years exceeded 1600 hours. This suggests that future surgical simulators of this kind may be sustainable by

Global epidemiological trends and variations in the burden of gallbladder cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Are, Chandrakanth; Ahmad, Humera; Ravipati, Advaitaa; Croo, Darren; Clarey, Dillon; Smith, Lynette; Price, Ray R; Butte, Jean M; Gupta, Sameer; Chaturvedi, Arun; Chowdhury, Sanjib

2017-04-01

The aim of this study is to describe the trends and variations in the global burden of gallbladder cancer (GBC) with an emphasis on geographic variations and female gender. Data (2012-2030) relating to GBC was extracted from GLOBOCAN 2012 database and analyzed. The results of our study document a rising global burden of GBC with geographic and gender variations. The highest burden was noted in the WPRO region (based on WHO regions), Asia (based on continents) and India, Chile, and China (based on countries). The less developed regions of the world account for the majority of the global burden of GBC. The geographic variations are also present within individual countries such as in India and Chile. Females are afflicted at a much higher rate with GBC and this predilection is exaggerated in countries with higher incidence such as India and Chile. In females, people of certain ethnic groups and lower socio-economic standing are at a higher risk. Our study demonstrates a rising global burden of GBC with some specific data on geographic and gender-based variations which can be used to develop strategies at the global as well as the high-risk individual country level. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Global Assessment of Long-Term Greening and Browning Trends in Pasture Lands Using the GIMMS LAI3g Dataset

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Benjamin I. Cook

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Pasture ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to land degradation due to the high risk of human disturbance (e.g., overgrazing, burning, etc., especially when compared with natural ecosystems (non-pasture, non-cultivated where direct human impacts are minimal. Using maximum annual leaf area index (LAImax as a proxy for standing biomass and peak annual aboveground productivity, we analyze greening and browning trends in pasture areas from 1982–2008. Inter-annual variability in pasture productivity is strongly controlled by precipitation (positive correlation and, to a lesser extent, temperature (negative correlation. Linear temporal trends are significant in 23% of pasture cells, with the vast majority of these areas showing positive LAImax trends. Spatially extensive productivity declines are only found in a few regions, most notably central Asia, southwest North America, and southeast Australia. Statistically removing the influence of precipitation reduces LAImax trends by only 13%, suggesting that precipitation trends are only a minor contributor to long-term greening and browning of pasture lands. No significant global relationship was found between LAImax and pasture intensity, although the magnitude of trends did vary between cells classified as natural versus pasture. In the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, the median rate of greening in pasture cells is significantly higher than for cells dominated by natural vegetation. In the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics, conversely, greening of natural areas is 2–4 times the magnitude of greening in pasture areas. This analysis presents one of the first global assessments of greening and browning trends in global pasture lands, including a comparison with vegetation trends in regions dominated by natural ecosystems. Our results suggest that degradation of pasture lands is not a globally widespread phenomenon and, consistent with much of the terrestrial biosphere, there have been widespread

How consistent are global long-term satellite LAI products in terms of interannual variability and trend?

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Jiang, C.; Ryu, Y.; Fang, H.

2016-12-01

Proper usage of global satellite LAI products requires comprehensive evaluation. To address this issue, the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Land Product Validation (LPV) subgroup proposed a four-stage validation hierarchy. During the past decade, great efforts have been made following this validation framework, mainly focused on absolute magnitude, seasonal trajectory, and spatial pattern of those global satellite LAI products. However, interannual variability and trends of global satellite LAI products have been investigated marginally. Targeting on this gap, we made an intercomparison between seven global satellite LAI datasets, including four short-term ones: MODIS C5, MODIS C6, GEOV1, MERIS, and three long-term products ones: LAI3g, GLASS, and GLOBMAP. We calculated global annual LAI time series for each dataset, among which we found substantial differences. During the overlapped period (2003 - 2011), MODIS C5, GLASS and GLOBMAP have positive correlation (r > 0.6) between each other, while MODIS C6, GEOV1, MERIS, and LAI3g are highly consistent (r > 0.7) in interannual variations. However, the previous three datasets show negative trends, all of which use MODIS C5 reflectance data, whereas the latter four show positive trends, using MODIS C6, SPOT/VGT, ENVISAT/MERIS, and NOAA/AVHRR, respectively. During the pre-MODIS era (1982 - 1999), the three AVHRR-based datasets (LAI3g, GLASS and GLOBMAP) agree well (r > 0.7), yet all of them show oscillation related with NOAA platform changes. In addition, both GLASS and GLOBMAP show clear cut-points around 2000 when they move from AVHRR to MODIS. Such inconsistency is also visible for GEOV1, which uses SPOT-4 and SPOT-5 before and after 2002. We further investigate the map-to-map deviations among these products. This study highlights that continuous sensor calibration and cross calibration are essential to obtain reliable global LAI time series.

Trends in Global Gender Inequality

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Dorius, Shawn F.; Firebaugh, Glenn

2010-01-01

This study investigates trends in gender inequality throughout the world. Using data encompassing a large majority of the world's population, we examine trends in recent decades for key indicators of gender inequality in education, mortality, political representation and economic activity. We find that gender inequality is declining in virtually…

[The beginning of the Cuban demographic revolution].

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Hernandez Castellon, R

1981-01-01

The characteristics of the Cuban demographic revolution associated with the main economic, political, and social changes in the country are analyzed. The authors begin with a brief historical outline of the political-economic situation in the country in the middle of the 19th century. There is emphasis on the dependency of the Cuban economy and its monoproducer nature (with sugar being the major export). This was due to the Spanish colonization and to the subsequent American neocolonization. The discovery of the cause for yellow fever by a Cuban physician and the sanitation campaign conducted by the Americans contributed to a diminishing of mortality. A great migratory flow occurred due to the price of sugar in the world market. This must have influenced Cuban demographic patterns which are a major factor linked to the demographic revolution. The influence on proliferation of urbanization and educational trends is emphasized. The low participation in economic activities of women during the early part of the century did affect fertility levels. The trends in mortality throughout the period 1907-43 are pointed out. It was found that 1 major aspect which had a bearing on Cuban demographic patterns was the 2 large migratory flows. An analysis of growth rates in the population--which also confirms the demographic changes in Cuba--is presented. It is concluded that the 4th decade of this century witnessed Cuba's entry in a new stage of the demographic revolution, a stage in which decreased fertility and mortality go together to create a new period. (author's)

Trends in Penile Prosthetics: Influence of Patient Demographics, Surgeon Volume, and Hospital Volume on Type of Penile Prosthesis Inserted in New York State.

Science.gov (United States)

Kashanian, James A; Golan, Ron; Sun, Tianyi; Patel, Neal A; Lipsky, Michael J; Stahl, Peter J; Sedrakyan, Art

2018-02-01

Penile prostheses (PPs) are a discrete, well-tolerated treatment option for men with medical refractory erectile dysfunction. Despite the increasing prevalence of erectile dysfunction, multiple series evaluating inpatient data have found a decrease in the frequency of PP surgery during the past decade. To investigate trends in PP surgery and factors affecting the choice of different PPs in New York State. This study used the New York State Department of Health Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative (SPARCS) data cohort that includes longitudinal information on hospital discharges, ambulatory surgery, emergency department visits, and outpatient services. Patients older than 18 years who underwent inflatable or non-inflatable PP insertion from 2000 to 2014 were included in the study. Influence of patient demographics, surgeon volume, and hospital volume on type of PP inserted. Since 2000, 14,114 patients received PP surgery in New York State; 12,352 PPs (88%) were inflatable and 1,762 (12%) were non-inflatable, with facility-level variation from 0% to 100%. There was an increasing trend in the number of annual procedures performed, with rates of non-inflatable PP insertion decreasing annually (P New York State and the results might not be generalizable to men in other states. Also, patient preference was not accounted for in these analyses, which can play a role in PP selection. During the past 14 years, there has been an increasing trend in inflatable PP surgery for the management of erectile dysfunction. Most procedures are performed in the ambulatory setting and not previously captured by prior studies using inpatient data. Kashanian JA, Golan R, Sun T, et al. Trends in Penile Prosthetics: Influence of Patient Demographics, Surgeon Volume, and Hospital Volume on Type of Penile Prosthesis Inserted in New York State. J Sex Med 2018;15:245-250. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Sexual Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Variations and Trends in Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets

Science.gov (United States)

Adler, R.; Curtis, S.; Huffman, G.; Bolvin, D.; Nelkin, E.

2001-05-01

This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. The relation of global (and tropical) total precipitation and ENSO events is quantified with no significant signal when land and ocean are combined. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 2000 the tropics have pattern of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe

Diversity in the Emerging Critical Care Workforce: Analysis of Demographic Trends in Critical Care Fellows From 2004 to 2014.

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Lane-Fall, Meghan B; Miano, Todd A; Aysola, Jaya; Augoustides, John G T

2017-05-01

Diversity in the physician workforce is essential to providing culturally effective care. In critical care, despite the high stakes and frequency with which cultural concerns arise, it is unknown whether physician diversity reflects that of critically ill patients. We sought to characterize demographic trends in critical care fellows, who represent the emerging intensivist workforce. We used published data to create logistic regression models comparing annual trends in the representation of women and racial/ethnic groups across critical care fellowship types. United States Accreditation Council on Graduate Medical Education-approved residency and fellowship training programs. Residents and fellows employed by Accreditation Council on Graduate Medical Education-accredited training programs from 2004 to 2014. None. From 2004 to 2014, the number of critical care fellows increased annually, up 54.1% from 1,606 in 2004-2005 to 2,475 in 2013-2014. The proportion of female critical care fellows increased from 29.5% (2004-2005) to 38.3% (2013-2014) (p workforce reflect underrepresentation of women and racial/ethnic minorities. Trends highlight increases in women and Hispanics and stable or decreasing representation of non-Hispanic underrepresented minority critical care fellows. Further research is needed to elucidate the reasons underlying persistent underrepresentation of racial and ethnic minorities in critical care fellowship programs.

Demographics in Astronomy and Astrophysics

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Ulvestad, James S.

2011-05-01

Astronomy has been undergoing a significant demographic shift over the last several decades, as shown by data presented in the 2000 National Research Council (NRC) report "Federal Funding of Astronomical Research," and the 2010 NRC report, "New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics." For example, the number of advertised postdoctoral positions in astronomy has increased much more rapldly than the number of faculty positions, contributing to a holding pattern of early-career astronomers in multiple postdoctoral positions. This talk will summarize some of the current demographic trends in astronomy, including information about gender and ethnic diversity, and describe some of the possible implications for the future. I thank the members of the Astro2010 Demographics Study Group, as well as numerous white-paper contributors to Astro2010, for providing data and analyses.

Tropical rainforests that persisted: inferences from the Quaternary demographic history of eight tree species in the Guiana shield.

Science.gov (United States)

Barthe, Stéphanie; Binelli, Giorgio; Hérault, Bruno; Scotti-Saintagne, Caroline; Sabatier, Daniel; Scotti, Ivan

2017-02-01

How Quaternary climatic and geological disturbances influenced the composition of Neotropical forests is hotly debated. Rainfall and temperature changes during and/or immediately after the last glacial maximum (LGM) are thought to have strongly affected the geographical distribution and local abundance of tree species. The paucity of the fossil records in Neotropical forests prevents a direct reconstruction of such processes. To describe community-level historical trends in forest composition, we turned therefore to inferential methods based on the reconstruction of past demographic changes. In particular, we modelled the history of rainforests in the eastern Guiana Shield over a timescale of several thousand generations, through the application of approximate Bayesian computation and maximum-likelihood methods to diversity data at nuclear and chloroplast loci in eight species or subspecies of rainforest trees. Depending on the species and on the method applied, we detected population contraction, expansion or stability, with a general trend in favour of stability or expansion, with changes presumably having occurred during or after the LGM. These findings suggest that Guiana Shield rainforests have globally persisted, while expanding, through the Quaternary, but that different species have experienced different demographic events, with a trend towards the increase in frequency of light-demanding, disturbance-associated species. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Twelve worlds: a geo-demographic comparison of global inequalities in mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Day, P; Pearce, J; Dorling, D

2008-11-01

The aim of this study was to identify clusters of nations grouped by health outcomes in order to provide sensible groupings for international comparisons. The utility of this approach is demonstrated by comparing life expectancy and a range of health system indicators within and between each cluster. Age- and sex-specific mortality data for 190 member states were extracted from the Burden of Disease Estimates statistics produced by the World Health Organization. A hierarchical cluster method was used to identify groupings of countries that are homogeneous in terms of mortality rates. 12 clusters of countries were identified. The average life expectancy of each cluster ranged from 81.5 years (cluster 1) to 37.7 years (cluster 12). The two highest ranked clusters were dominated by Western European countries, Australia, Japan and Canada. Cluster 3 included the UK and USA. The four clusters with the lowest life expectancies were characterised by different configurations of African countries. Health system indicators for workforce, hospital beds, access to medicines and measles vaccination corresponded well with a clear association with cluster life expectancy. On a per capita basis, worldwide health spending was concentrated within the three highest life expectancy clusters, especially cluster 3 containing the USA. Considerable inequalities in life expectancy and healthcare are made clearer when viewed across clusters of countries grouped by health outcomes. This geo-demographic taxonomy of global mortality has advantages over traditional more ad hoc systems for comparing global health inequalities and for deciding which countries appear to have the most comparable health outcomes.

The advantages of demographic change after the wave: fewer and older, but healthier, greener, and more productive?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fanny Kluge

Full Text Available Population aging is an inevitable global demographic process. Most of the literature on the consequences of demographic change focuses on the economic and societal challenges that we will face as people live longer and have fewer children. In this paper, we (a briefly describe key trends and projections of the magnitude and speed of population aging; (b discuss the economic, social, and environmental consequences of population aging; and (c investigate some of the opportunities that aging societies create. We use Germany as a case study. However, the general insights that we obtain can be generalized to other developed countries. We argue that there may be positive unintended side effects of population aging that can be leveraged to address pressing environmental problems and issues of gender inequality and intergenerational ties.

Global trends in milk quality: implications for the irish dairy industry

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More SJ

2009-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract The quality of Irish agricultural product will become increasingly important with the ongoing liberalisation of international trade. This paper presents a review of the global and Irish dairy industries; considers the impact of milk quality on farm profitability, food processing and human health, examines global trends in quality; and explores several models that are successfully being used to tackle milk quality concerns. There is a growing global demand for dairy products, fuelled in part by growing consumer wealth in developing countries. Global dairy trade represents only 6.2% of global production and demand currently outstrips supply. Although the Irish dairy industry is small by global standards, approximately 85% of annual production is exported annually. It is also the world's largest producer of powdered infant formula. Milk quality has an impact on human health, milk processing and on-farm profitability. Somatic cell count (SCC is a key measure of milk quality, with a SCC not exceeding 400,000 cells/ml (the EU milk quality standard generally accepted as the international export standard. There have been ongoing improvements in milk quality among both established and emerging international suppliers. A number of countries have developed successful industry-led models to tackle milk quality concerns. Based on international experiences, it is likely that problems with effective translation of knowledge to practice, rather than incomplete knowledge per se, are the more important constraints to national progress towards improved milk quality.

Trends in global approvals of biotech crops (1992-2014).

Science.gov (United States)

Aldemita, Rhodora R; Reaño, Ian Mari E; Solis, Renando O; Hautea, Randy A

2015-01-01

With the increasing number of genetically modified (GM) events, traits, and crops that are developed to benefit the global population, approval of these technologies for food, feed, cultivation and import in each country may vary depending on needs, demand and trade interest. ISAAA established a GMO Approval Database to document global approvals of biotech crops. GM event name, crops, traits, developer, year of approval for cultivation, food/feed, import, and relevant dossiers were sourced from credible government regulatory websites and biosafety clearinghouses. This paper investigates the trends in GM approvals for food, feed and cultivation based on the number of approving countries, GM crops, events, and traits in the last 23 y (1992-2014), rationale for approval, factors influencing approvals, and their implications in GM crop adoption. Results show that in 2014, there was an accumulative increase in the number of countries granting approvals at 29 (79% developing countries) for commercial cultivation and 31 (70% developing countries) for food and 19 (80% developing developing) for feed; 2012 had the highest number of approving countries and cultivation approvals; 2011 had the highest number of country approvals for feed, and 2014 for food approvals. Herbicide tolerance trait had the highest events approved, followed by insect tolerance traits. Approvals for food product quality increased in the second decade. Maize had the highest number of events approved (single and stacked traits), and stacked traits product gradually increased which is already 30% of the total trait approvals. These results may indicate understanding and acceptance of countries to enhance regulatory capability to be able to benefit from GM crop commercialization. Hence, the paper provided information on the trends on the growth of the GM crop industry in the last 23 y which may be vital in predicting future GM crops and traits.

Relative contribution of decreased productivity and survival to recent changes in the demographic trend of the Rivière George Caribou Herd

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M. Crête

1996-01-01

Full Text Available The Rivière George caribou herd (RGCH was numerically low during the middle part of the century but apparently erupted in the sixties and the seventies. Puberty was early and pregnancy rate was high among RGCH females from 1973 until the mid-eighties when fecundity decreased significantly, in particular among sub-adults; productivity remained low in 1992. Autumn calf:female ratios reflected this trend in pregnancy, exceeding 50 calves: 100 cows between 1973 and 1983, but dropping thereafter progressively to a low of 24 in 1992. In 1993, this ratio rebounded back to 42. Annual adult survival rate of radio-collared females was high (0.95 at the beginning of the monitoring in 1984, but exhibited a variable but declining trend until 1992. Simulations were conducted to estimate the demographic trend of the RGCH between 1984 and 1992, using annual survival rates of radio-collared animals and annual autumn calffemale ratios to estimate calf production. Age structure played a minor role in estimating the finite rate of increase (Lamda. According to the simulations, the RGCH increased in size until 1987, and showed a slight decrease thereafter. The herd should have decreased by 12-15% between 1988 and 1993, according to the simulations. Productivity first caused a decline in Lamda, but in recent years decreased survival contributed slightly more than productivity to the reduction in Lamda. Estimation of the herd size by means of aerial censuses in 1976, 1984, 1988 and 1993 suggested a similar pattern in demographic trend, differences being statistically meaningless. We speculated on the future of the RGCH, that could have erupted after many decades of unfavourable weather. The herd will exhibit a rapid descent to low numbers if wolves show a numerical response to current caribou abundance, or if lichen availability on the winter range decreases due to competition with the adjacent and increasing Rivière aux Feuilles herd; otherwise it will exhibit

Lived experience of economic and political trends related to globalization.

Science.gov (United States)

Cushon, Jennifer A; Muhajarine, Nazeem; Labonte, Ronald

2010-01-01

A multi-method case study examined how the economic and political processes of globalization have influenced the determinants of health among low-income children in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada. This paper presents the results from the qualitative interview component of the case study. The purpose of the interviews was to uncover the lived experience of low-income families and their children in Saskatoon with regards to political and economic trends related to globalization, an important addition to the usual globalization and health research that relies primarily on cross-country regressions in which the personal impacts remain hidden. In-depth phenomenological interviews with 26 low-income parents of young children (aged zero to five) who were residents of Saskatoon. A combination of volunteer and criterion sampling was used. Interview questions were open-ended and based upon an analytical framework. Analysis proceeded through immersion in the data, a process of open coding, and finally through a process of selective coding. The larger case study and interviews indicate that globalization has largely not been benefiting low-income parents with young children. Low-income families with young children were struggling to survive, despite the tremendous economic growth occurring in Saskatchewan and Saskatoon at the time of the interviews. This often led to participants expressing a sense of helplessness, despair, isolation, and/or anger. Respondents' experiences suggest that globalization-related changes in social conditions and public policies and programs have great potential to negatively affect family health through either psychosocial effects in individuals and/or decreased levels of social cohesion in the community.

Are Demographics the Nation's Destiny?

Science.gov (United States)

Glass, Gene V.

2008-01-01

In this article, the author discusses the demographic trends affecting America's public schools. As an expert on empirical evaluation of education, the author believes the major debates over vouchers, charter schools, bilingual education, and other issues are not really about preparing the next generation to compete with China or India, or about…

Global Trends and Development Prospects for Oil and the Oil Products Market

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Maria Dorozhkina

2006-03-01

Full Text Available This article discusses the important issue of the development of the global market of oil and oil products. It offers an overview of how this market was formed and its current status, classification, location and potential of countries in the oil and oil processing business. It analyzes the Ukrainian oil products market. The article discusses the shortcomings and strategic areas for the development of Ukraine’s oil transport system. It presents an optimum method for creating integration groups in order to develop the oil processing business in Ukraine for the future. The article considers the main trends and outlines development prospects for the global oil and oil products market.

Trends of the global radiation and sunshine hours in 1961-1998 and their relationships in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Rensheng; Kang Ersi; Ji Xibin; Yang Jianping; Zhang Zhihui

2006-01-01

Trends of the yearly global radiation E g , annual sunshine hours S, yearly precipitation P and yearly averaged air temperature T at 51 stations in 1961-1998 in China were detected, and the significance test method was the F-test. A total of 47 stations showed decreasing trend in the E g series of which 35 passed the F-test at the 5% significant level. At 42 stations, the trend of S was also decreasing, and 36 of them passed the F-test at the 5% significant level. The P series did not change largely in 1961-1998 and at 37 stations showed a positive trend, while the positive trend or reduced trend at 39 stations did not pass the F-test at the 25% significant level. The positive trend of the T series was shown at 49 stations, of which 29 passed the F-test at the 1% significant level. In the yearly scale, the empirical relationship between E g and S at any station was very low because the length of the E g series was too short. When using all the data at the used 51 stations together to simulate E g , the results were good. Using the longitude λ, latitude φ and altitude H, or/and P and T, of the used stations to adjust the parameters a and b of the Angstroem model, respectively, or just to adjust the parameter a, the results will be better. The parameter b of the Angstroem model was little affected by the geographical position of the used stations. At last, a simple equation is recommended to use for simulation of the yearly global radiation in China

Food, Paper, Wood, or Energy? Global Trends and Future Swedish Forest Use

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Erik Westholm

2010-12-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a futures study of international forest trends. The study, produced as part of the Swedish Future Forest program, focuses on global changes of importance for future Swedish forest use. It is based on previous international research, policy documents, and 24 interviews with selected key experts and/or actors related to the forest sector, and its findings will provide a basis for future research priorities. The forest sector, here defined as the economic, social, and cultural contributions to life and human welfare derived from forest and forest-based activities, faces major change. Four areas stand out as particularly important: changing energy systems, emerging international climate policies, changing governance systems, and shifting global land use systems. We argue that global developments are, and will be, important for future Swedish forest use. The forest sector is in transition and forest-, energy, climate- and global land use issues are likely to become increasingly intertwined. Therefore, the “forest sector” must be disembedded and approached as an open system in interplay with other systems.

Demographic trends in Claremont California’s street tree population

Science.gov (United States)

Natalie S. van Doorn; E. Gregory McPherson

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to quantify street tree population dynamics in the city of Claremont, CA. A repeated measures survey (2000 and 2014) based on a stratified random sampling approach across size classes and for the most abundant 21 species was analyzed to calculate removal, growth, and replacement planting rates. Demographic rates were estimated using a...

Gender inequalities from the demographic perspective

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Devedžić Mirjana

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The paper analyzes the meaning of the phrase "the woman’s status in the society" that is recognized in demography as an important cultural factor of demographic development and transitional changes. The analysis indicates qualitative shifts in the woman’s status and simultaneously reveals its importance at present, not only in traditional, but also in modern and developed societies. On the other hand, it explains the importance of sex as a biodemographic determinant, and introduces the concept of gender that sheds another light on the concepts of sex and woman’s status in the society and integrates them. Gender regimes that subsume the inferiority of women in public and private social structures are examined from demographic perspective, albeit only in those phenomenological aspects that can be supported by demographic research, theories, and analyses. To this end, the paper analyzes the effects of strengthening gender equalities on the fertility and mortality transitions, the gender’s impact on the population distribution by sex in South Asian countries, and highlights the key role of gender in interpreting certain social and economic structures. It also stresses the establishing of gender equality as an important element of population policies. The global dimension of the patriarchal society is illustrated through a series of examples of demographic phenomena from various societies. Gender regimes underlie all of these phenomena. The paper puts foreword certain theoretical hypotheses about gender inequalities, and finds their connections with demographic behaviors and demographic indicators. Finally, it summarizes the role of demography in gender (inequality research and the demographic perspective of the way and the speed the demographic equality is being established. Demography is seen as an irreplaceable discipline in examining gender inequalities, especially at the global level. With the advance of qualitative methods in demography

A research on the effect of global trends in Turkish kitchen furniture sector

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Ersin Uçar

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Through survey results, this study evaluated global trends’ effects on Turkish kitchen furniture production. The level of knowledge and difficulties of catching up with and implementing developmental trends in the Turkish kitchen furniture sector has been seen as having a structure equivalent to world standards because the level of material and technological development has been determined by four criteria: consumer demand, housing plans, technology inadequacy, and material inadequacy. According to the results, findings in this framework, consumer demand was most influential (45.4% in capturing and implementing enterprises’ trends. Evaluation results on kitchen furniture projects implemented by Turkish enterprises within the last 5 years showed that they mostly worked with models with one-lid views in cabinet-door applications (41.6%. As a result, world trends reflect the direct influence of Turkish kitchen furniture manufacturers on cabinet-door models and color preferences for kitchen units.

HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT PERSPECTIVES TOWARDS GLOBAL WORKPLACE BY 2020

OpenAIRE

Annette Sonia Chetan; Deekshitha

2016-01-01

Globalisation has led to different and varied outcomes in the modern days business by fierce competition, rapid change, emerging market trends and adoption of new technologies. A global workplace is a borderless workplace, which facilitate facing new challenges and compete in changing work culture. Today’s buzz words are ‘Manage change or perish’. The demographics and size of the workplace are changing considerably since 21st century. Hence the organizations are trying to cope with the chang...

Trends from 2002 to 2010 in Daily Breakfast Consumption and its Socio-Demographic Correlates in Adolescents across 31 Countries Participating in the HBSC Study.

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Giacomo Lazzeri

Full Text Available Breakfast is often considered the most important meal of the day and children and adolescents can benefit from breakfast consumption in several ways. The purpose of the present study was to describe trends in daily breakfast consumption (DBC among adolescents across 31 countries participating in the HBSC survey between 2002 to 2010 and to identify socio-demographic (gender, family affluence and family structure correlates of DBC. Cross-sectional surveys including nationally representative samples of 11-15 year olds (n = 455,391. Multilevel logistic regression analyses modeled DBC over time after adjusting for family affluence, family structure and year of survey. In all countries, children in two-parent families were more likely to report DBC compared to single parent families. In most countries (n = 19, DBC was associated with family affluence. Six countries showed an increase in DBC (Canada, Netherland, Macedonia, Scotland, Wales, England from 2002. A significant decrease in DBC from 2002 was found in 11 countries (Belgium Fr, France, Germany, Croatia, Spain, Poland, Russian Federation, Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania and Norway, while in 5 countries (Portugal, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Sweden no significant changes were seen. Frequency of DBC among adolescents in European countries and North America showed a more uniform pattern in 2010 as compared to patterns in 2002. DBC increased significantly in only six out of 19 countries from 2002 to 2010. There is need for continued education and campaigns to motivate adolescents to consume DBC. Comparing patterns across HBSC countries can make an important contribution to understanding regional /global trends and to monitoring strategies and development of health promotion programs.

International trade of health services: global trends and local impact.

Science.gov (United States)

Lautier, Marc

2014-10-01

Globalization is a key challenge facing health policy-makers. A significant dimension of this is trade in health services. Traditionally, the flow of health services exports went from North to South, with patients travelling in the opposite direction. This situation is changing and a number of papers have discussed the growth of health services exports from Southern countries in its different dimensions. Less attention has been paid to assess the real scope of this trade at the global level and its potential impact at the local level. Given the rapid development of this area, there are little empirical data. This paper therefore first built an estimate of the global size and of the growth trend of international trade in health services since 1997, which is compared with several country-based studies. The second purpose of the paper is to demonstrate the significant economic impact of this trade at the local level for the exporting country. We consider the case of health providers in the South-Mediterranean region for which the demand potential, the economic effects and the consequence for the health system are presented. These issues lead to the overall conclusion that different policy options would be appropriate, in relation to the nature of the demand. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in the Global Small Satellite Ecosystem: Implications for Science Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Behrens, J.; Lal, B.

2017-12-01

Activity in the small satellite industry has increased in the recent years. New actors and nations have joined the evolving market globally in both the private and public sector. Progress in the smallsat sector has been driven, in part, by growing capabilities and falling costs of smallsats. Advancements include the miniaturization of technology for the small satellite platform, increased data processing capabilities, the ubiquitous presence of GPS enabling location and attitude determination, improvements in ground system costs and signal processing capabilities, and the deployment of inexpensive COTS parts. The emerging trends in the state of the art for smallsat technology, paired with planned smallsat constellation missions by both private and public actors, open the opportunity for new earth and remote sensing scientific endeavors. This presentation will characterize the drivers influencing the development of smallsat technology and the industry more generally. An overview will be provided for trends in the state of the art of smallsat technology, and secondary trends that influence the smallsat sector including infrastructure, demand, the satellite launch market, and the policy environment. These trends are mapped onto current and projected Earth observation needs, as identified by academic and governmental communities, to identify those that could be fulfilled by smallsats in the near and long term. A set of notional science missions that could be enabled, based on the various drivers identified, will be presented for both the near (3 years) and farther term (10 years).

Demographic development of ukrainian rural area: lessons of history, modern socio-economic threats

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D.P. Melnychuk

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to urgent problems of demographic development of rural areas, their impact on socioeconomic processes at all levels of the national economic system. The content of demographic and economic antonyms of «demographic development» and «demographic catastrophe» has been characterized. The article analyzes the historical background of demographic change in rural areas, their socio-economic consequences. It’s reasonably concluded that the economic development of Ukraine requires urgent settlement of the negative socio-demographic trends that are characteristic for a Ukrainian village. Nowadays, these trends are of a destructive nature. They lead to a protracted crisis of agricultural production which is very difficult to overcome solely with the tools of technical and technological modernization. This will complicate the food security of the state for many years; lower the level and quality of life of the population, lead to greater territorial disparities and degradation of rural areas and the marginalization of residents of Ukrainian villages.

Urban partnerships in low-carbon development: Opportunities and challenges of an emerging trend in global climate politics

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Jan Beermann

2014-05-01

Full Text Available This study explores the linkages between two recent trends in global climate governance. The first trend is the growing focus on cities in the multi-level governance of climate change. Whereas international climate change negotiations often end in deadlock, many urban centers across the world are taking the lead. Industrialized cities from the Global North and increasingly cities from the emerging Southern economies are experimenting with innovative and ambitious programs to reduce their local carbon footprints. A second trend is the expan¬ding urban North-South cooperation in the area of low-carbon development. This cooperation takes various forms, such as city twinning, transnational municipal networks and trans-local development cooperation. A key target of these initiatives is to develop joint projects and exchange knowledge to foster low-carbon development pathways. This study analyzes the conditions of success and failure in selected Indo-German urban low-carbon partnerships with a particular focus on institutional arrangements. The paper presents evidence from three initiatives and argues that successful trans-local cooperation depends largely on the interplay between institutional forms and the development of social capital. Building on these findings, the paper discusses what lessons may be drawn from the emergence of urban North-South cooperation for the future development of global climate governance.

Trends in energy intake from alcoholic beverages by socio-demographic characteristics among US adults, 1989–2012

Science.gov (United States)

Butler, Lauren; Poti, Jennifer M.; Popkin, Barry M.

2016-01-01

Background Long term US trends in alcoholic beverage calorie intakes remain unexamined, particularly with respect to changes in population subgroup-specific patterns over time. Objective This study examines shifts in the consumption of alcoholic beverages, in total and by beverage type, on any given day among US adults in relation to socio-demographic characteristics. Design This study was a repeated cross-sectional analyses of data from the 1989–1991 and 1994–1996 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals; 2003–2006 and 2009–2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. Participants/setting Adults ≥19 years (N = 39,298); a subset of alcoholic beverage consumers (n = 7,081) were studied. Statistical analyses performed Survey weighted mean per capita per day intakes (among all participants, both consumers of alcoholic beverages and non-consumers) and contributions of beer, wine, and liquor/mixed drinks to total alcoholic beverage energy were determined. Multivariable regression models were used to examine trends in the proportion of alcoholic beverage consumers and the per consumer intakes (among consumers of alcoholic beverages only). Results Per capita intakes from alcoholic beverages increased from 49 kcal/cap/d in 1989–1991 to 109 kcal/cap/d in 2003–2006 (pbeverages on any given day increased significantly from 1989–1991 to 2009–2012 (p for overall increasing trend beverage calories increased between 1989–1991 and 1994–1996 (pbeverage intake for less educated consumers across time. Conclusions These results indicate there has been an increase in the proportion of US adults who drink on any given day, and an increase in calories consumed from alcoholic beverages when drinking occurs. PMID:27132721

Are species' responses to global change predicted by past niche evolution?

Science.gov (United States)

Lavergne, Sébastien; Evans, Margaret E. K.; Burfield, Ian J.; Jiguet, Frederic; Thuiller, Wilfried

2013-01-01

Predicting how and when adaptive evolution might rescue species from global change, and integrating this process into tools of biodiversity forecasting, has now become an urgent task. Here, we explored whether recent population trends of species can be explained by their past rate of niche evolution, which can be inferred from increasingly available phylogenetic and niche data. We examined the assemblage of 409 European bird species for which estimates of demographic trends between 1970 and 2000 are available, along with a species-level phylogeny and data on climatic, habitat and trophic niches. We found that species' proneness to demographic decline is associated with slow evolution of the habitat niche in the past, in addition to certain current-day life-history and ecological traits. A similar result was found at a higher taxonomic level, where families prone to decline have had a history of slower evolution of climatic and habitat niches. Our results support the view that niche conservatism can prevent some species from coping with environmental change. Thus, linking patterns of past niche evolution and contemporary species dynamics for large species samples may provide insights into how niche evolution may rescue certain lineages in the face of global change. PMID:23209172

Recent trends and socio-demographic determinants of exercise participation in Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Bauman, A; Owen, N; Rushworth, R L

1990-01-01

Although sentiments about the positive health benefits of regular exercise have been expressed for many centuries, it is only in the past three decades that epidemiologic evidence has provided scientific support for the health benefits of being physically active. The evidence for the protective effect of physical activity is particularly strong with reference to cardiovascular disease, with the relative risk of being "inactive" compared to 'active' estimated to typically lie between 1.5 and 2.0. Despite the popular view that exercise participation has increased in recent years, estimates of trends in physical activity in Australian (and other) populations have been difficult to interpret because of the different measurements and surveys used. We examined data from population surveys using well validated, standardised methods to assess exercise participation, through National surveys between 1984 and 1987 conducted by the Commonwealth Department of the Arts, Sport, the Environment, Tourism and Territories (DASETT). Over the period in which the surveys were conducted, there appears to have been a slight increase in the proportion of Australians who participated in regular physical activity. There was a significant decline in the proportion who reported being totally sedentary--from 32.9 per cent in 1984 to 25.4 per cent in 1987. The data from all of the surveys were then pooled to give an overall sample size of 17053, and socio-demographic variables were examined in relation to exercise participation. Women, older people, the less well educated, and those on lower incomes were less likely to perform regular physical activity. Inequalities in the social distribution of exercise participation parallel those found for other health risk factors.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution : an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cohen, Aaron J; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Anderson, H Ross; Frostad, Joseph; Estep, Kara; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Brunekreef, Bert|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/067548180; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Feigin, Valery; Freedman, Greg; Hubbell, Bryan; Jobling, Amelia; Kan, Haidong; Knibbs, Luke; Liu, Yang|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/411298119; Martin, Randall; Morawska, Lidia; Pope, C Arden; Shin, Hwashin; Straif, Kurt; Shaddick, Gavin; Thomas, Matthew; van Dingenen, Rita; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J L; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H

BACKGROUND: Exposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country

[Some unique characteristics of the demographic situation in Russia].

Science.gov (United States)

Brui, B; Mikhailov, E

1991-01-01

The authors briefly describe the demographic situation in the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic, using data from the 1989 census and current demographic research. Changes in the birth rate and population growth are examined, and migration flows in the various regions of the republic are compared. Factors affecting low birth rates are analyzed, and trends in marriage, divorce, mortality, and life expectancy are explored.

Global scenarios and trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

The 21st century brings with it a number of disturbing challenges. They may even threaten to disrupt world order. Many agree the most critical and urgent challenge of all confronting human kind today is climate change. Global warming has reached a level which can trigger drastic shifts in world weather. There is convincing evidence to show that global warming is significantly attributed to mans own activities. If man is responsible for the warming of the planet, then only man can help stop global warming. Only man can reverse climate change. Climate change has the power to literally destruct the world. The adverse effects of global climate change are increasingly evident from the frequency and ferocity of natural disasters like the recent severe drought and flood in Queensland, Australia; the prolonged drought in East Africa; the destructive typhoon Nargis in Myanmar; the terrifying hurricane Katrina which brought New Orleans to its knees; the disastrous Mississippi flood and killer cyclones in USA and the out of season drought and flood in the Yangtze river basin. The list does not end there. Dr. R. K. Pachauri, Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in his lecture on 28 April 2011 at UNITEN, entitled Fukushima, Energy and Climate Change reaffirmed that the warming of the earths climate system is unequivocal. That climate change is mans common enemy is no longer in doubt. This is the reason why many see climate change as the single most important driver of the expanding global interest in green technology and a low carbon economy. (author)

Increasing global crop harvest frequency: recent trends and future directions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ray, Deepak K; Foley, Jonathan A

2013-01-01

The world’s agricultural systems face the challenge of meeting the rising demands from population growth, changing dietary preferences, and expanding biofuel use. Previous studies have put forward strategies for meeting this growing demand by increasing global crop production, either expanding the area under cultivation or intensifying the crop yields of our existing agricultural lands. However, another possible means for increasing global crop production has received less attention: increasing the frequency of global cropland harvested each year. Historically, many of the world’s croplands were left fallow, or had failed harvests, each year, foregoing opportunities for delivering crop production. Furthermore, many regions, particularly in the tropics, may be capable of multiple harvests per year, often more than are harvested today. Here we analyze a global compilation of agricultural statistics to show how the world’s harvested cropland has changed. Between 2000 and 2011, harvested land area grew roughly 4 times faster than total standing cropland area. Using a metric of cropland harvest frequency (CHF)—the ratio of land harvested each year to the total standing cropland—and its recent trends, we identify countries that harvest their croplands more frequently, and those that have the potential to increase their cropland harvest frequency. We suggest that a possible ‘harvest gap’ may exist in many countries that represents an opportunity to increase crop production on existing agricultural lands. However, increasing the harvest frequency of existing croplands could have significant environmental and social impacts, which need careful evaluation. (letter)

Trend patterns in global sea surface temperature

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barbosa, S.M.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

2009-01-01

Isolating long-term trend in sea surface temperature (SST) from El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) variability is fundamental for climate studies. In the present study, trend-empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, a robust space-time method for extracting trend patterns, is applied to iso...

Trends in mass media exposure upon women: A review of Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yasmin Jahan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Background With the rapid advancement of technology, mass media acquired widespread exposure upon major portion of the world population. The overall media platform has smooth access into peoples’ everyday lifestyle through routine tele transmission of all the existing media (such as broadcast, print, digital, outdoor media etc.. Mass media platform is one of the few most powerful influential factors causing dynamic behavioral changes. Objective To assess mass media exposure and it’s changing trends in Bangladesh using data from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS from 1993- 94 to 2014. Methods The study used data from the published reports of Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (BDHS 1993-1994 to BDHS 2014. Results In the years of 1999-2000, 2004, 2007, 2014 women aged 20-24 years (41%, 54%, 56%, 57% respectively have passed more time watching television in weekly basis than the other age groups. Higher percentage was observed among the educated women than uneducated from 1999-2000 to 2014 who has made access to all three media (television, radio and newspaper at least once a week. Proportion of women who had accessed all three media at least once a week was much higher in the highest quintile families than the lowest quintile families and more exposure in urban women than the rural women. The region-wise coverage was higher in 1999-2000 in case of Chittagong (5.2%, Dhaka (4.7%, Khulna (5.1%, Rajshahi (3.1%, and Sylhet (3.9% division with access to all three media at least once a week except Barisal division. Conclusion Findings show higher percentage of television watching tendency among comparatively more educated and economically flourished urban women. Therefore, the major policy challenge addressees the need for designing of communications strategies targeting the less privileged, rural and illiterate people who constitute the majority of population in Bangladesh.

Trends in global approvals of biotech crops (1992–2014)

Science.gov (United States)

Aldemita, Rhodora R; Reaño, Ian Mari E; Solis, Renando O; Hautea, Randy A

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT With the increasing number of genetically modified (GM) events, traits, and crops that are developed to benefit the global population, approval of these technologies for food, feed, cultivation and import in each country may vary depending on needs, demand and trade interest. ISAAA established a GMO Approval Database to document global approvals of biotech crops. GM event name, crops, traits, developer, year of approval for cultivation, food/feed, import, and relevant dossiers were sourced from credible government regulatory websites and biosafety clearinghouses. This paper investigates the trends in GM approvals for food, feed and cultivation based on the number of approving countries, GM crops, events, and traits in the last 23 y (1992–2014), rationale for approval, factors influencing approvals, and their implications in GM crop adoption. Results show that in 2014, there was an accumulative increase in the number of countries granting approvals at 29 (79% developing countries) for commercial cultivation and 31 (70% developing countries) for food and 19 (80% developing developing) for feed; 2012 had the highest number of approving countries and cultivation approvals; 2011 had the highest number of country approvals for feed, and 2014 for food approvals. Herbicide tolerance trait had the highest events approved, followed by insect tolerance traits. Approvals for food product quality increased in the second decade. Maize had the highest number of events approved (single and stacked traits), and stacked traits product gradually increased which is already 30% of the total trait approvals. These results may indicate understanding and acceptance of countries to enhance regulatory capability to be able to benefit from GM crop commercialization. Hence, the paper provided information on the trends on the growth of the GM crop industry in the last 23 y which may be vital in predicting future GM crops and traits. PMID:26039675

Current Trends in the Nuclear Power Global Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariya Mikhailovna Osetskaya

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The review of the nuclear energy technologies market, namely the main processes of the initial and final stages of the nuclear fuel cycle (NTC was shown. The authors reveal key players in the markets of natural uranium mining, conversion, enrichment, fabrication of nuclear fuel, direct disposal, and reprocessing as well as determine their market shares. The article shows the fundamental factors influencing the development trends of the global nuclear power market such as: units’ commissioning in China, India, the Republic of Korea and other countries, the restart of the Japanese nuclear power plants, growth of uranium supplies long-term contracting planned for the period up to 2025, volatility of world prices of the NFC initial and final stages, political, economic and environmental reasons for the nuclear power generation choice. The article presents the results of analyses of Russian and world prices on the NFC initial and final stages main processes’ allowing to draw a conclusion about the current competitiveness of Russian nuclear energy technologies

The Changing Demographic Profile of the United States

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Shrestha, Laura B

2006-01-01

...." The objective of this report is to highlight some of the demographic changes that have already occurred since 1950 and to illustrate how these and future trends will reshape the nation in the decades to come (through 2050...

Globalization of international migration: Social challenges and policy implication

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I A Aleshkovski

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In the second half of the XX century, the humankind witnessed the insurmountable and irreversible power of globalization processes, which influence all spheres of social life and establish a global system of interdependency between countries and nations. Globalization within impetuous changes in global political, social and economic systems has determined dramatic shifts in the international migration processes that lead to the new stage of migration history. In nowadays globalized world, international migration has become a reality for almost all corners of the globe. The author considers features of the recent trends of international migration: the unprecedented growth of the international migration flows; the widening geography of international migration that involves nearly all countries of the world; qualitative changes in the structure of international migration flows; the key role of economic migration; the permanent growth and structural intricateness of irregular migration; the increasing scale and geographical widening of forced migration; the growing importance of international migration for the demographic development of the world, countries of both origin and destination. All these trends combined prove that the international migration patterns have become more complex. The author analyzes the legal framework of the international migration processes, and gives recommendations on the ways to improve the control and regulation of migration processes. Specific issues related to the social challenges of international migration are also discussed in the article.

A mechanism for land-ocean contrasts in global monsoon trends in a warming climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fasullo, J. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, CAS/NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States)

2012-09-15

A central paradox of the global monsoon record involves reported decreases in rainfall over land during an era in which the global hydrologic cycle is both expected and observed to intensify. It is within this context that this work develops a physical basis for both interpreting the observed record and anticipating changes in the monsoons in a warming climate while bolstering the concept of the global monsoon in the context of shared feedbacks. The global-land monsoon record across multiple reanalyses is first assessed. Trends that in other studies have been taken as real are shown to likely be spurious as a result of changes in the assimilated data streams both prior to and during the satellite era. Nonetheless, based on satellite estimates, robust increases in monsoon rainfall over ocean do exist and a physical basis for this land-ocean contrast remains lacking. To address the contrast's causes, simulated trends are therefore assessed. While projections of total rainfall are inconsistent across models, the robust land-ocean contrast identified in observations is confirmed. A feedback mechanism is proposed rooted in the facts that land areas warm disproportionately relative to ocean, and onshore flow is the chief source of monsoonal moisture. Reductions in lower tropospheric relative humidity over land domains are therefore inevitable and these have direct consequences for the monsoonal convective environment including an increase in the lifting condensation level and a shift in the distribution of convection generally towards less frequent and potentially more intense events. The mechanism is interpreted as an important modulating influence on the ''rich-get-richer'' mechanism. Caveats for regional monsoons exist and are discussed. (orig.)

The Role of Organizational Leadership to Enhance Top 10 CSR Issues and Trends in The Global Economy

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Dewi Rachmayanti

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Research on leadership and its relationship with organizational performance have been carried out and not considered Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR performance, especially in the field of community development (Comdev and even done partially. This study aims to investigate the role of organizational leadership to enhance Top 10 CSR issues and trends in the global economy which defines roles and leadership competencies. Thirteen experts were involved in the Forum of Multi Stakeholder Corporate Social Responsibility (MSHCSR through Focus Group Discussion (FGD. Data by cluster random sampling were statistically analyzed with Assumption Surfacing and Testing Strategy (SAST. The results showed from FGD experts stating if eight roles and eight competencies of the organization’s leadership is very important and influential to enhance Top 10 CSR issues and trends in the global economy.

Peculiarities of spreading separatist trends in the Modern World in the context of development of the global processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bostan Sergii Ivanovich

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The international collaboration is entering the new era of globalization revealing not only the new ways of development and quantum growth for humanity but also new threats, problems and global conflicts. There is now doubt that humanity is facing new global range of problems, agenda of the 21st century and urgent issues of global organization of the world order and systems of global administration acceptable for all states. Preventing distribution of international confrontation between the major political players through advancement of separatist and terrorist trends must become the main priority for the international system of collective security, which should be changed according to the realities of the modern global processes.

Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonius G T Schut

Full Text Available Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010 derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.

Interannual variations and trends in global land surface phenology derived from enhanced vegetation index during 1982-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiaoyang; Tan, Bin; Yu, Yunyue

2014-05-01

Land surface phenology is widely retrieved from satellite observations at regional and global scales, and its long-term record has been demonstrated to be a valuable tool for reconstructing past climate variations, monitoring the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems in response to climate impacts, and predicting biological responses to future climate scenarios. This study detected global land surface phenology from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 1982 to 2010. Based on daily enhanced vegetation index at a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees, we simulated the seasonal vegetative trajectory for each individual pixel using piecewise logistic models, which was then used to detect the onset of greenness increase (OGI) and the length of vegetation growing season (GSL). Further, both overall interannual variations and pixel-based trends were examined across Koeppen's climate regions for the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010, respectively. The results show that OGI and GSL varied considerably during 1982-2010 across the globe. Generally, the interannual variation could be more than a month in precipitation-controlled tropical and dry climates while it was mainly less than 15 days in temperature-controlled temperate, cold, and polar climates. OGI, overall, shifted early, and GSL was prolonged from 1982 to 2010 in most climate regions in North America and Asia while the consistently significant trends only occurred in cold climate and polar climate in North America. The overall trends in Europe were generally insignificant. Over South America, late OGI was consistent (particularly from 1982 to 1999) while either positive or negative GSL trends in a climate region were mostly reversed between the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010. In the Northern Hemisphere of Africa, OGI trends were mostly insignificant, but prolonged GSL was evident over individual climate regions during the last 3

The demographic situation in the European Union

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Nimwegen, N.; van der Erf, R.F.; Heering, E.L.; van Nimwegen, N.; van der Erf, R.

2009-01-01

This chapter focuses on the recent demographic situation and related population trends in the 27 Member States of the European Union. Some attention will also be paid to its two Candidate Countries, Croatia and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, as well as to the EFTA Countries (Iceland,

Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Assessment of global-scale model performance for global and regional ozone distributions, variability, and trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. J. Young

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The goal of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR is to provide the research community with an up-to-date scientific assessment of tropospheric ozone, from the surface to the tropopause. While a suite of observations provides significant information on the spatial and temporal distribution of tropospheric ozone, observational gaps make it necessary to use global atmospheric chemistry models to synthesize our understanding of the processes and variables that control tropospheric ozone abundance and its variability. Models facilitate the interpretation of the observations and allow us to make projections of future tropospheric ozone and trace gas distributions for different anthropogenic or natural perturbations. This paper assesses the skill of current-generation global atmospheric chemistry models in simulating the observed present-day tropospheric ozone distribution, variability, and trends. Drawing upon the results of recent international multi-model intercomparisons and using a range of model evaluation techniques, we demonstrate that global chemistry models are broadly skillful in capturing the spatio-temporal variations of tropospheric ozone over the seasonal cycle, for extreme pollution episodes, and changes over interannual to decadal periods. However, models are consistently biased high in the northern hemisphere and biased low in the southern hemisphere, throughout the depth of the troposphere, and are unable to replicate particular metrics that define the longer term trends in tropospheric ozone as derived from some background sites. When the models compare unfavorably against observations, we discuss the potential causes of model biases and propose directions for future developments, including improved evaluations that may be able to better diagnose the root cause of the model-observation disparity. Overall, model results should be approached critically, including determining whether the model performance is acceptable for

In the Eye of the Perfect Storm: The Convergence of Policy and Latina/o Trends in Access and Financial Concerns, 1975-2008

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, José L.; Sáenz, Victor B.

2014-01-01

The authors paint a national portrait of Latina/o trends over more than 30 years in terms of demographic and financial concerns that pertain to access at 4-year institutions. Using a multiple policy streams framework, the authors contend that growing numbers of Latina/os are in the eye of the perfect storm in a global economy that calls for more…

The Effect of Recent Trends on Dental Hygiene.

Science.gov (United States)

Douglass, Chester W.

1991-01-01

Six trends affecting dental hygiene practice are discussed: demographic changes; disease pattern changes; higher societal expectations; financing and delivery system changes; technological advancement; and regulatory and legislative trends. It is argued that, though the trends reflect positively on dental hygiene, practitioners need to increase…

Trends in coal use - global, EU and Poland

Science.gov (United States)

Suwała, Wojciech; Wyrwa, Artur; Olkuski, Tadeusz

2017-11-01

That aim of this paper is to compare trends in global, European use of coal with tendencies in Poland, one of heavy coal dependent countries. Polish power generation is unique among OECD countries, the share of both hard coal and lignite in power generation reaches 81% [1]. Climate policy of European Union is to phase out intensive greenhouse gases sectors, thus to transform Polish power generation into less carbon intensive. Although such policy is generally accepted in Poland, the paste and practically proposed regulation that excludes coal generation from capacity mechanisms, is considered as threat to energy security. Coal is the base for generation for one simple reason, abundant in European scale hard coal reserves and significant capacities in lignite. Natural gas reserves allow to supply about 1/3 of consumption, but prices and supplies dependent hitherto on contracts with GAZPROM did not allow to develop significant generation capacities. Renewable resources are limited, there is not much possibilities for hydro, wind and solar. Poland is also one of the countries of poor air quality, traditional coal based space heating systems plus obsolete car fleet generate vast emissions, especially during the winter. Only recently this became top priority of environmental authorities. This situation is subject to transformation, government, managers are aware that the role of coal needs to be decreased, but there are two main questions, the paste of transformation and the future energy mix. The paper attempts to answer the question whether the expected changes in Polish energy mix are comparable or differ from the global and European tendencies.

Integration of genetic and demographic data to assess population risk in a continuously distributed species

Science.gov (United States)

Fedy, Bradley C.; Row, Jeffery R.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.

2017-01-01

The identification and demographic assessment of biologically meaningful populations is fundamental to species’ ecology and management. Although genetic tools are used frequently to identify populations, studies often do not incorporate demographic data to understand their respective population trends. We used genetic data to define subpopulations in a continuously distributed species. We assessed demographic independence and variation in population trends across the distribution. Additionally, we identified potential barriers to gene flow among subpopulations. We sampled greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) leks from across their range (≈175,000 Km2) in Wyoming and amplified DNA at 14 microsatellite loci for 1761 samples. Subsequently, we assessed population structure in unrelated individuals (n = 872) by integrating results from multiple Bayesian clustering approaches and used the boundaries to inform our assessment of long-term population trends and lek activity over the period of 1995–2013. We identified four genetic clusters of which two northern ones showed demographic independence from the others. Trends in population size for the northwest subpopulation were statistically different from the other three genetic clusters and the northeast and southwest subpopulations demonstrated a general trend of increasing proportion of inactive leks over time. Population change from 1996 to 2012 suggested population growth in the southern subpopulations and decline, or neutral, change in the northern subpopulations. We suggest that sage-grouse subpopulations in northern Wyoming are at greater risk of extirpation than the southern subpopulations due to smaller census and effective population sizes and higher variability within subpopulations. Our research is an example of incorporating genetic and demographic data and provides guidance on the identification of subpopulations of conservation concern.

Trend and Demographic Characteristics of Maxillofacial Fractures in Level I Trauma Center.

Science.gov (United States)

Emodi, Omri; Wolff, Amir; Srouji, Hanna; Bahouth, Hany; Noy, Dani; Abu El Naaj, Imad; Rachmiel, Adi

2018-03-01

The aim of this study was to analyze the pattern and treatment of craniomaxillofacial injuries in the northern part of Israel, within a Jewish majority and large Arab minority population. A 5-year retrospective study evaluated patients treated for craniomaxillofacial fractures. Fracture cause, type, site, and patient demographics were evaluated. Patient age ranged from 1 to 94 years with an average age of 36.7 years; 52% of the victims were Jews and 48% Arabs. There was male predilection in both sectors (78.3% vs 21.7%). The main site of injury was the zygomatic bone (33.5%) followed by nasal bone, orbital, mandible, frontal sinus, and maxillary fractures. The main etiology of injuries was falls (45.4%) with significantly more falls reported by females (52.1% vs 43.2% in males). Motor vehicle accidents caused injuries more frequent in males. Arabs experienced CMF fractures at a younger age compared to Jews (27.8 and 44.8 average age, respectively). In the elderly, the trend reversed where Jews were more prone to craniomaxillofacial fractures. Compared to their weight in the population, the Arab sector experiences more craniomaxillofacial injuries. The Jewish elderly population tends to reside in nursing homes where they are more susceptible to accidental falls, whereas young Arab males are more exposed to motor vehicle accidents and interpersonal violence. Falls were the main cause of injuries particularly in women. This may reflect the women's fear of reporting domestic violence. We believe that increased government investments in infrastructures and education will lower the incidence of craniomaxillofacial trauma and balance the gap between both sectors and sexes.

[Future trends in nursing education in Taiwan in the light of globalization].

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Sheuan; Lu, Ying-Chi; Yen, Wen-Jiuan; Lin, Shu-Chin

2004-08-01

The twenty-first century is the era of the knowledge-based economy. Its information networks developing rapidly, Taiwan has already entered an age of liberalization, diversity and globalization. Competition and change will be the norm. As globalization continues it will pose substantial problems for nursing education. Nursing is a service-oriented activity which has to develop constantly to meet the changing demands of the public as people start to live longer, society becomes more multi-cultural, the nature of diseases and other health problems changes and public policy, such as that on National Health Insurance, is modified. This article outlines the problems currently facing nursing education (i.e., the complexity of the educational system, shortcomings in the learning environment, curriculum design, the quality of faculty, evaluation methods, and the quality of students' English and Mathematics) to predict likely difficulties (i.e. student recruitment, the running of schools and the quality of clinical nurses) and trends in nursing education. (i.e. changes in the way schools are run in line with the impact of globalization, new teaching methods; faculty training and development, lifelong learning, and the internationalization of education.) The article should be of interest to nursing educators.

[Recent population trends in the Swiss Alps].

Science.gov (United States)

Billet, J; Rougier, H

1984-01-01

Recent demographic trends in the Alpine areas of Switzerland are examined. Areas of population loss and gain are identified, and the importance of tourism for areas experiencing population growth is established. Efforts to support the demographic and economic viability of mountain areas are described.

Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gourdji, Sharon M; Sibley, Adam M; Lobell, David B

2013-01-01

Long-term warming trends across the globe have shifted the distribution of temperature variability, such that what was once classified as extreme heat relative to local mean conditions has become more common. This is also true for agricultural regions, where exposure to extreme heat, particularly during key growth phases such as the reproductive period, can severely damage crop production in ways that are not captured by most crop models. Here, we analyze exposure of crops to physiologically critical temperatures in the reproductive stage (T crit ), across the global harvested areas of maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Trends for the 1980–2011 period show a relatively weak correspondence (r = 0.19) between mean growing season temperature and T crit exposure trends, emphasizing the importance of separate analyses for T crit . Increasing T crit exposure in the past few decades is apparent for wheat in Central and South Asia and South America, and for maize in many diverse locations across the globe. Maize had the highest percentage (15%) of global harvested area exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in the 2000s, although this value is somewhat sensitive to the exact temperature used for the threshold. While there was relatively little sustained exposure to reproductive days over T crit for the other crops in the past few decades, all show increases with future warming. Using projections from climate models we estimate that by the 2030s, 31, 16, and 11% respectively of maize, rice, and wheat global harvested area will be exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in a typical year, with soybean much less affected. Both maize and rice exhibit non-linear increases with time, with total area exposed for rice projected to grow from 8% in the 2000s to 27% by the 2050s, and maize from 15 to 44% over the same period. While faster development should lead to earlier flowering, which would reduce reproductive extreme heat exposure for wheat on a

Aquaculture: global status and trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Bostock, John; McAndrew, Brendan; Richards, Randolph; Jauncey, Kim; Telfer, Trevor; Lorenzen, Kai; Little, David; Ross, Lindsay; Handisyde, Neil; Gatward, Iain; Corner, Richard

2010-09-27

Aquaculture contributed 43 per cent of aquatic animal food for human consumption in 2007 (e.g. fish, crustaceans and molluscs, but excluding mammals, reptiles and aquatic plants) and is expected to grow further to meet the future demand. It is very diverse and, contrary to many perceptions, dominated by shellfish and herbivorous and omnivorous pond fish either entirely or partly utilizing natural productivity. The rapid growth in the production of carnivorous species such as salmon, shrimp and catfish has been driven by globalizing trade and favourable economics of larger scale intensive farming. Most aquaculture systems rely on low/uncosted environmental goods and services, so a critical issue for the future is whether these are brought into company accounts and the consequent effects this would have on production economics. Failing that, increased competition for natural resources will force governments to allocate strategically or leave the market to determine their use depending on activities that can extract the highest value. Further uncertainties include the impact of climate change, future fisheries supplies (for competition and feed supply), practical limits in terms of scale and in the economics of integration and the development and acceptability of new bio-engineering technologies. In the medium term, increased output is likely to require expansion in new environments, further intensification and efficiency gains for more sustainable and cost-effective production. The trend towards enhanced intensive systems with key monocultures remains strong and, at least for the foreseeable future, will be a significant contributor to future supplies. Dependence on external feeds (including fish), water and energy are key issues. Some new species will enter production and policies that support the reduction of resource footprints and improve integration could lead to new developments as well as reversing decline in some more traditional systems.

Aquaculture: global status and trends

Science.gov (United States)

Bostock, John; McAndrew, Brendan; Richards, Randolph; Jauncey, Kim; Telfer, Trevor; Lorenzen, Kai; Little, David; Ross, Lindsay; Handisyde, Neil; Gatward, Iain; Corner, Richard

2010-01-01

Aquaculture contributed 43 per cent of aquatic animal food for human consumption in 2007 (e.g. fish, crustaceans and molluscs, but excluding mammals, reptiles and aquatic plants) and is expected to grow further to meet the future demand. It is very diverse and, contrary to many perceptions, dominated by shellfish and herbivorous and omnivorous pond fish either entirely or partly utilizing natural productivity. The rapid growth in the production of carnivorous species such as salmon, shrimp and catfish has been driven by globalizing trade and favourable economics of larger scale intensive farming. Most aquaculture systems rely on low/uncosted environmental goods and services, so a critical issue for the future is whether these are brought into company accounts and the consequent effects this would have on production economics. Failing that, increased competition for natural resources will force governments to allocate strategically or leave the market to determine their use depending on activities that can extract the highest value. Further uncertainties include the impact of climate change, future fisheries supplies (for competition and feed supply), practical limits in terms of scale and in the economics of integration and the development and acceptability of new bio-engineering technologies. In the medium term, increased output is likely to require expansion in new environments, further intensification and efficiency gains for more sustainable and cost-effective production. The trend towards enhanced intensive systems with key monocultures remains strong and, at least for the foreseeable future, will be a significant contributor to future supplies. Dependence on external feeds (including fish), water and energy are key issues. Some new species will enter production and policies that support the reduction of resource footprints and improve integration could lead to new developments as well as reversing decline in some more traditional systems. PMID:20713392

The global diffusion of organ transplantation: trends, drivers and policy implications.

Science.gov (United States)

White, Sarah L; Hirth, Richard; Mahíllo, Beatriz; Domínguez-Gil, Beatriz; Delmonico, Francis L; Noel, Luc; Chapman, Jeremy; Matesanz, Rafael; Carmona, Mar; Alvarez, Marina; Núñez, Jose R; Leichtman, Alan

2014-11-01

Rising incomes, the spread of personal insurance, lifestyle factors adding to the burden of illness, ageing populations, globalization and skills transfer within the medical community have increased worldwide demand for organ transplantation. The Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation, which was built in response to World Health Assembly resolution WHA57.18, has conducted ongoing documentation of global transplantation activities since 2007. In this paper, we use the Global Observatory's data to describe the current distribution of - and trends in - transplantation activities and to evaluate the role of health systems factors and macroeconomics in the diffusion of transplantation technology. We then consider the implications of our results for health policies relating to organ donation and transplantation. Of the World Health Organization's Member States, most now engage in organ transplantation and more than a third performed deceased donor transplantation in 2011. In general, the Member States that engage in organ transplantation have greater access to physician services and greater total health spending per capita than the Member States where organ transplantation is not performed. The provision of deceased donor transplantation was closely associated with high levels of gross national income per capita. There are several ways in which governments can support the ethical development of organ donation and transplantation programmes. Specifically, they can ensure that appropriate legislation, regulation and oversight are in place, and monitor donation and transplantation activities, practices and outcomes. Moreover, they can allocate resources towards the training of specialist physicians, surgeons and transplant coordinators, and implement a professional donor-procurement network.

The global diffusion of organ transplantation: trends, drivers and policy implications

Science.gov (United States)

Hirth, Richard; Mahíllo, Beatriz; Domínguez-Gil, Beatriz; Delmonico, Francis L; Noel, Luc; Chapman, Jeremy; Matesanz, Rafael; Carmona, Mar; Alvarez, Marina; Núñez, Jose R; Leichtman, Alan

2014-01-01

Abstract Rising incomes, the spread of personal insurance, lifestyle factors adding to the burden of illness, ageing populations, globalization and skills transfer within the medical community have increased worldwide demand for organ transplantation. The Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation, which was built in response to World Health Assembly resolution WHA57.18, has conducted ongoing documentation of global transplantation activities since 2007. In this paper, we use the Global Observatory’s data to describe the current distribution of – and trends in – transplantation activities and to evaluate the role of health systems factors and macroeconomics in the diffusion of transplantation technology. We then consider the implications of our results for health policies relating to organ donation and transplantation. Of the World Health Organization’s Member States, most now engage in organ transplantation and more than a third performed deceased donor transplantation in 2011. In general, the Member States that engage in organ transplantation have greater access to physician services and greater total health spending per capita than the Member States where organ transplantation is not performed. The provision of deceased donor transplantation was closely associated with high levels of gross national income per capita. There are several ways in which governments can support the ethical development of organ donation and transplantation programmes. Specifically, they can ensure that appropriate legislation, regulation and oversight are in place, and monitor donation and transplantation activities, practices and outcomes. Moreover, they can allocate resources towards the training of specialist physicians, surgeons and transplant coordinators, and implement a professional donor-procurement network. PMID:25378744

GLOBAL CHALLENGES AND TRENDS IN THE TOURISM INDUSTRY; ROMANIA, WHERE TO?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

FIROIU DANIELA

2015-06-01

Full Text Available In the context of an increasingly dynamic global society, adapting to new market conditions becomes a necessity, so that mutations in the tourism industry, as the economic sector to record the fastest ascent, become part of worldwide change. Tourism in the 21st century meets new dimensions as a result of unprecedented economic and technological expansion, the implications of these changes being profound and sometimes even difficult to explain or quantify. Therefore, defining an adequate tourism offer and adapting to market requirements become real challenges for economic agents, challenges that must be managed carefully in order to attain success. Currently, the focus is mainly on the technological factor and the sustainability of tourist activities, which become real progress binders, with strong influence on the entire supply chain. Global outlined trends define new ways to practice tourism, so that the technological evolution marks the transition of the entire travel experience from the offline to the online environment. The mobile segment is the one currently creating the newest opportunities for the development of tourist services, which is based on an increasingly close relationship between operators and tourists. It is to be seen whether Romania, as an emerging tourism market, which owns all necessary assets for a rapid and strong ascent, will be able to turn challenges offered by global dynamics into opportunities or will face the risks induced by it.

Variability and trends in global drought

Science.gov (United States)

McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.

2015-01-01

Monthly precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from the CRUTS3.1 data set are used to compute monthly P minus PET (PMPE) for the land areas of the globe. The percent of the global land area with annual sums of PMPE less than zero are used as an index of global drought (%drought) for 1901 through 2009. Results indicate that for the past century %drought has not changed, even though global PET and temperature (T) have increased. Although annual global PET and T have increased, annual global P also has increased and has mitigated the effects of increased PET on %drought.

Cancers of the Brain and CNS: Global Patterns and Trends in Incidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Mortazavi, S M J; Mortazavi, S A R; Paknahad, M

2018-03-01

Miranda-Filho et al. in their recently published paper entitled "Cancers of the brain and CNS: global patterns and trends in incidence" provided a global status report of the geographic and temporal variations in the incidence of brain and CNS cancers in different countries across continents worldwide. While the authors confirm the role of genetic risk factors and ionizing radiation exposures, they claimed that no firm conclusion could be drawn about the role of exposure to non-ionizing radiation. The paper authored by Miranda-Filho et al. not only addresses a challenging issue, it can be considered as a good contribution in the field of brain and CNS cancers. However, our correspondence addresses a basic shortcoming of this paper about the role of electromagnetic fields and cancers and provides evidence showing that exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMFs), at least at high levels and long durations, can increases the risk of cancer.

[Some sex-specific problem under especially consideration of demographic and social-economic aspects (author's transl)].

Science.gov (United States)

Brännström, M; Festbaum, G; Frille, D

1981-01-01

Demographic and social-economic trends are tightly linked together, the social-economic being the determinates of this trend. For that aim the direct pecuniary living conditions are analyzed more thoroughly than usual by means of a special demographic group. Now as before the mode of action and the accuracy of aim of social-politic measures are unclear. The downward trend of the degree of pensioner's employment is discussed in connection to concretly existing material living conditions with regard to better social security payment. Recommendations are given for elderly working people from the side of work hygiene, which will be planned and realized in our process of development.

Population and trends in the global mean temperature

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tol, Richard S.J.

2017-01-01

The Fisher ideal index, developed to measure price inflation, is applied to define a population-weighted temperature trend. This method has the advantages that the trend is representative for the population distribution throughout the sample but without conflating the trend in the population

Global burden of sickle cell anaemia in children under five, 2010-2050: modelling based on demographics, excess mortality, and interventions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frédéric B Piel

Full Text Available The global burden of sickle cell anaemia (SCA is set to rise as a consequence of improved survival in high-prevalence low- and middle-income countries and population migration to higher-income countries. The host of quantitative evidence documenting these changes has not been assembled at the global level. The purpose of this study is to estimate trends in the future number of newborns with SCA and the number of lives that could be saved in under-five children with SCA by the implementation of different levels of health interventions.First, we calculated projected numbers of newborns with SCA for each 5-y interval between 2010 and 2050 by combining estimates of national SCA frequencies with projected demographic data. We then accounted for under-five mortality (U5m projections and tested different levels of excess mortality for children with SCA, reflecting the benefits of implementing specific health interventions for under-five patients in 2015, to assess the number of lives that could be saved with appropriate health care services. The estimated number of newborns with SCA globally will increase from 305,800 (confidence interval [CI]: 238,400-398,800 in 2010 to 404,200 (CI: 242,500-657,600 in 2050. It is likely that Nigeria (2010: 91,000 newborns with SCA [CI: 77,900-106,100]; 2050: 140,800 [CI: 95,500-200,600] and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (2010: 39,700 [CI: 32,600-48,800]; 2050: 44,700 [CI: 27,100-70,500] will remain the countries most in need of policies for the prevention and management of SCA. We predict a decrease in the annual number of newborns with SCA in India (2010: 44,400 [CI: 33,700-59,100]; 2050: 33,900 [CI: 15,900-64,700]. The implementation of basic health interventions (e.g., prenatal diagnosis, penicillin prophylaxis, and vaccination for SCA in 2015, leading to significant reductions in excess mortality among under-five children with SCA, could, by 2050, prolong the lives of 5,302,900 [CI: 3

Global burden of sickle cell anaemia in children under five, 2010-2050: modelling based on demographics, excess mortality, and interventions.

Science.gov (United States)

Piel, Frédéric B; Hay, Simon I; Gupta, Sunetra; Weatherall, David J; Williams, Thomas N

2013-01-01

The global burden of sickle cell anaemia (SCA) is set to rise as a consequence of improved survival in high-prevalence low- and middle-income countries and population migration to higher-income countries. The host of quantitative evidence documenting these changes has not been assembled at the global level. The purpose of this study is to estimate trends in the future number of newborns with SCA and the number of lives that could be saved in under-five children with SCA by the implementation of different levels of health interventions. First, we calculated projected numbers of newborns with SCA for each 5-y interval between 2010 and 2050 by combining estimates of national SCA frequencies with projected demographic data. We then accounted for under-five mortality (U5m) projections and tested different levels of excess mortality for children with SCA, reflecting the benefits of implementing specific health interventions for under-five patients in 2015, to assess the number of lives that could be saved with appropriate health care services. The estimated number of newborns with SCA globally will increase from 305,800 (confidence interval [CI]: 238,400-398,800) in 2010 to 404,200 (CI: 242,500-657,600) in 2050. It is likely that Nigeria (2010: 91,000 newborns with SCA [CI: 77,900-106,100]; 2050: 140,800 [CI: 95,500-200,600]) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (2010: 39,700 [CI: 32,600-48,800]; 2050: 44,700 [CI: 27,100-70,500]) will remain the countries most in need of policies for the prevention and management of SCA. We predict a decrease in the annual number of newborns with SCA in India (2010: 44,400 [CI: 33,700-59,100]; 2050: 33,900 [CI: 15,900-64,700]). The implementation of basic health interventions (e.g., prenatal diagnosis, penicillin prophylaxis, and vaccination) for SCA in 2015, leading to significant reductions in excess mortality among under-five children with SCA, could, by 2050, prolong the lives of 5,302,900 [CI: 3,174,800-6,699,100] newborns with

Noiseonomics: the relationship between ambient noise levels in the sea and global economic trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Frisk, George V

2012-01-01

In recent years, the topic of noise in the sea and its effects on marine mammals has attracted considerable attention from both the scientific community and the general public. Since marine mammals rely heavily on acoustics as a primary means of communicating, navigating, and foraging in the ocean, any change in their acoustic environment may have an impact on their behavior. Specifically, a growing body of literature suggests that low-frequency, ambient noise levels in the open ocean increased approximately 3.3 dB per decade during the period 1950-2007. Here we show that this increase can be attributed primarily to commercial shipping activity, which in turn, can be linked to global economic growth. As a corollary, we conclude that ambient noise levels can be directly related to global economic conditions. We provide experimental evidence supporting this theory and discuss its implications for predicting future noise levels based on global economic trends.

Recent Trends of the Tropical Hydrological Cycle Inferred from Global Precipitation Climatology Project and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project data

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Y. P.; Xu, Kuan-Man; Sud, Y. C.; Betts, A. K.

2011-01-01

Scores of modeling studies have shown that increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere impact the global hydrologic cycle; however, disagreements on regional scales are large, and thus the simulated trends of such impacts, even for regions as large as the tropics, remain uncertain. The present investigation attempts to examine such trends in the observations using satellite data products comprising Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project cloud and radiation. Specifically, evolving trends of the tropical hydrological cycle over the last 20-30 years were identified and analyzed. The results show (1) intensification of tropical precipitation in the rising regions of the Walker and Hadley circulations and weakening over the sinking regions of the associated overturning circulation; (2) poleward shift of the subtropical dry zones (up to 2deg/decade in June-July-August (JJA) in the Northern Hemisphere and 0.3-0.7deg/decade in June-July-August and September-October-November in the Southern Hemisphere) consistent with an overall broadening of the Hadley circulation; and (3) significant poleward migration (0.9-1.7deg/decade) of cloud boundaries of Hadley cell and plausible narrowing of the high cloudiness in the Intertropical Convergence Zone region in some seasons. These results support findings of some of the previous studies that showed strengthening of the tropical hydrological cycle and expansion of the Hadley cell that are potentially related to the recent global warming trends.

Global trends in research related to social media in psychology: mapping and bibliometric analysis

OpenAIRE

Zyoud, Sa’ed H.; Sweileh, Waleed M.; Awang, Rahmat; Al-Jabi, Samah W.

2018-01-01

Background Social media, defined as interactive Web applications, have been on the rise globally, particularly among adults. The objective of this study was to investigate the trend of the literature related to the most used social network worldwide (i.e. Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Snapchat, and Instagram) in the field of psychology. Specifically, this study will assess the growth in publications, citation analysis, international collaboration, author productivity, emerging topics and the m...

Sector trends and driving forces of global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions: focus in industry and buildings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Price, Lynn; Worrell, Ernst; Khrushch, Marta

1999-09-01

Disaggregation of sectoral energy use and greenhouse gas emissions trends reveals striking differences between sectors and regions of the world. Understanding key driving forces in the energy end-use sectors provides insights for development of projections of future greenhouse gas emissions. This report examines global and regional historical trends in energy use and carbon emissions in the industrial, buildings, transport, and agriculture sectors, with a more detailed focus on industry and buildings. Activity and economic drivers as well as trends in energy and carbon intensity are evaluated. The authors show that macro-economic indicators, such as GDP, are insufficient for comprehending trends and driving forces at the sectoral level. These indicators need to be supplemented with sector-specific information for a more complete understanding of future energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.

Sector trends and driving forces of global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions: focus in industry and buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Price, Lynn; Worrell, Ernst; Khrushch, Marta

1999-01-01

Disaggregation of sectoral energy use and greenhouse gas emissions trends reveals striking differences between sectors and regions of the world. Understanding key driving forces in the energy end-use sectors provides insights for development of projections of future greenhouse gas emissions. This report examines global and regional historical trends in energy use and carbon emissions in the industrial, buildings, transport, and agriculture sectors, with a more detailed focus on industry and buildings. Activity and economic drivers as well as trends in energy and carbon intensity are evaluated. The authors show that macro-economic indicators, such as GDP, are insufficient for comprehending trends and driving forces at the sectoral level. These indicators need to be supplemented with sector-specific information for a more complete understanding of future energy use and greenhouse gas emissions

Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply.

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, Martin; Reichstein, Markus; Ciais, Philippe; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Sheffield, Justin; Goulden, Michael L; Bonan, Gordon; Cescatti, Alessandro; Chen, Jiquan; de Jeu, Richard; Dolman, A Johannes; Eugster, Werner; Gerten, Dieter; Gianelle, Damiano; Gobron, Nadine; Heinke, Jens; Kimball, John; Law, Beverly E; Montagnani, Leonardo; Mu, Qiaozhen; Mueller, Brigitte; Oleson, Keith; Papale, Dario; Richardson, Andrew D; Roupsard, Olivier; Running, Steve; Tomelleri, Enrico; Viovy, Nicolas; Weber, Ulrich; Williams, Christopher; Wood, Eric; Zaehle, Sönke; Zhang, Ke

2010-10-21

More than half of the solar energy absorbed by land surfaces is currently used to evaporate water. Climate change is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle and to alter evapotranspiration, with implications for ecosystem services and feedback to regional and global climate. Evapotranspiration changes may already be under way, but direct observational constraints are lacking at the global scale. Until such evidence is available, changes in the water cycle on land−a key diagnostic criterion of the effects of climate change and variability−remain uncertain. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of global land evapotranspiration from 1982 to 2008, compiled using a global monitoring network, meteorological and remote-sensing observations, and a machine-learning algorithm. In addition, we have assessed evapotranspiration variations over the same time period using an ensemble of process-based land-surface models. Our results suggest that global annual evapotranspiration increased on average by 7.1 ± 1.0 millimetres per year per decade from 1982 to 1997. After that, coincident with the last major El Niño event in 1998, the global evapotranspiration increase seems to have ceased until 2008. This change was driven primarily by moisture limitation in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly Africa and Australia. In these regions, microwave satellite observations indicate that soil moisture decreased from 1998 to 2008. Hence, increasing soil-moisture limitations on evapotranspiration largely explain the recent decline of the global land-evapotranspiration trend. Whether the changing behaviour of evapotranspiration is representative of natural climate variability or reflects a more permanent reorganization of the land water cycle is a key question for earth system science.

Flawed citation practices facilitate the unsubstantiated perception of a global trend toward increased jellyfish blooms

KAUST Repository

Sanz-Martí n, Marina; Pitt, Kylie A.; Condon, Robert H.; Lucas, Cathy H.; Novaes de Santana, Charles; Duarte, Carlos M.

2016-01-01

Speculation over a global rise in jellyfish populations has become widespread in the scientific literature, but until recently the purported ‘global increase’ had not been tested. Here we present a citation analysis of peer-reviewed literature to track the evolution of the current perception of increases in jellyfish and identify key papers involved in its establishment. Trend statements and citation threads were reviewed and arranged in a citation network. Trend statements were assessed according their degree of affirmation and spatial scale, and the appropriateness of the citations used to support statements was assessed. Analyses showed that 48.9% of publications misinterpreted the conclusions of cited sources, with a bias towards claiming jellyfish populations are increasing, with a single review having the most influence on the network. Collectively, these disparities resulted in a network based on unsubstantiated statements and citation threads. As a community, we must ensure our statements about scientific findings in general are accurately substantiated and carefully communicated such that incorrect perceptions, as in the case of jellyfish blooms, do not develop in the absence of rigorous testing. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Flawed citation practices facilitate the unsubstantiated perception of a global trend toward increased jellyfish blooms

KAUST Repository

Sanz-Martín, Marina

2016-06-24

Speculation over a global rise in jellyfish populations has become widespread in the scientific literature, but until recently the purported ‘global increase’ had not been tested. Here we present a citation analysis of peer-reviewed literature to track the evolution of the current perception of increases in jellyfish and identify key papers involved in its establishment. Trend statements and citation threads were reviewed and arranged in a citation network. Trend statements were assessed according their degree of affirmation and spatial scale, and the appropriateness of the citations used to support statements was assessed. Analyses showed that 48.9% of publications misinterpreted the conclusions of cited sources, with a bias towards claiming jellyfish populations are increasing, with a single review having the most influence on the network. Collectively, these disparities resulted in a network based on unsubstantiated statements and citation threads. As a community, we must ensure our statements about scientific findings in general are accurately substantiated and carefully communicated such that incorrect perceptions, as in the case of jellyfish blooms, do not develop in the absence of rigorous testing. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Design Trends in Gold Jewellery Making in Ghana and Global Cultural Influence.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peggy Ama Fening

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Although Ghana is the second largest producer of gold in Africa, its jewellery industry accounts for very little percentage of the world production total. This observation is partly attributed to the extent to which the Ghanaian jewellery products have been influenced by global culture. The objective of this paper was therefore to investigate the influence of global culture on gold jewellery designs. Data used in this study were collected mainly through direct observations at goldsmiths’ workshops and showrooms, jewellery retail shops, during festivals and durbars, and visits to chiefs and traditional rulers’ homes. Close and open ended questionnaires and personal interviews were also used to solicit information from 400 respondents comprising; jewellers/Goldsmith, Chiefs and traditional rulers, jewellery traders and the general public. The study showed that a new trend of jewellery design has evolved. There are new innovations in the production of old aphorisms and symbols that has been influenced by global culture. This is reflected in the usage of brand names and their logos as well as the initials of customers’ names in making jewellery. The craftsmen were of the view that technological advancement and the use of modern equipment, as well as global fashion have contributed immensely to this observation. On the other hand the chiefs and traditional rulers were of the view that the impact of globalisation if not checked will lead to the erosion of the rich cultural designs of the Ghanaian people.

Decadal trends in global CO emissions as seen by MOPITT

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Y.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Broquet, G.; Fortems-Cheiney, A.; Pison, I.; Saunois, M.

2015-12-01

Negative trends of carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations are observed in the recent decade by both surface measurements and satellite retrievals over many regions of the globe, but they are not well explained by current emission inventories. Here, we analyse the observed CO concentration decline with an atmospheric inversion that simultaneously optimizes the two main CO sources (surface emissions and atmospheric hydrocarbon oxidations) and the main CO sink (atmospheric hydroxyl radical OH oxidation). Satellite CO column retrievals from Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT), version 6, and surface observations of methane and methyl chloroform mole fractions are assimilated jointly for the period covering 2002-2011. Compared to the model simulation prescribed with prior emission inventories, trends in the optimized CO concentrations show better agreement with that of independent surface in situ measurements. At the global scale, the atmospheric inversion primarily interprets the CO concentration decline as a decrease in the CO emissions (-2.3 % yr-1), more than twice the negative trend estimated by the prior emission inventories (-1.0 % yr-1). The spatial distribution of the inferred decrease in CO emissions indicates contributions from western Europe (-4.0 % yr-1), the United States (-4.6 % yr-1) and East Asia (-1.2 % yr-1), where anthropogenic fuel combustion generally dominates the overall CO emissions, and also from Australia (-5.3 % yr-1), the Indo-China Peninsula (-5.6 % yr-1), Indonesia (-6.7 % y-1), and South America (-3 % yr-1), where CO emissions are mostly due to biomass burning. In contradiction with the bottom-up inventories that report an increase of 2 % yr-1 over China during the study period, a significant emission decrease of 1.1 % yr-1 is inferred by the inversion. A large decrease in CO emission factors due to technology improvements would outweigh the increase in carbon fuel combustions and may explain this decrease. Independent

Datasets on demographic trends in enrollment into undergraduate engineering programs at Covenant University, Nigeria.

Science.gov (United States)

Popoola, Segun I; Atayero, Aderemi A; Badejo, Joke A; Odukoya, Jonathan A; Omole, David O; Ajayi, Priscilla

2018-06-01

In this data article, we present and analyze the demographic data of undergraduates admitted into engineering programs at Covenant University, Nigeria. The population distribution of 2649 candidates admitted into Chemical Engineering, Civil Engineering, Computer Engineering, Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Information and Communication Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, and Petroleum Engineering programs between 2002 and 2009 are analyzed by gender, age, and state of origin. The data provided in this data article were retrieved from the student bio-data submitted to the Department of Admissions and Student Records (DASR) and Center for Systems and Information Services (CSIS) by the candidates during the application process into the various engineering undergraduate programs. These vital information is made publicly available, after proper data anonymization, to facilitate empirical research in the emerging field of demographics analytics in higher education. A Microsoft Excel spreadsheet file is attached to this data article and the data is thoroughly described for easy reuse. Descriptive statistics and frequency distributions of the demographic data are presented in tables, plots, graphs, and charts. Unrestricted access to these demographic data will facilitate reliable and evidence-based research findings for sustainable education in developing countries.

Future role and significance of space activities in reflection of global social, technological and economic trends

Science.gov (United States)

Diekmann, Andreas; Richarz, Hans.-Peter

The paper describes the interrelation of space activities and global socio-economic trends like "globalisation of markets" and "renaissance of fine arts". The interrelation reveals the economic strategic, technological and scientific dimension of space activities and their benefits to mankind. Then, the significance and perspectives of space activities in these dimensions are examined in more detail. The paper calls (1) for a more visible initiative to employ space activities to tackle urgent questions of global change and development, and (2) for a stronger impetus to secure European economic position in space sector as a key industry of the 21st century.

Exploring Demographic Shifts : Aging and Migration Exploratory Group Model Specification & Simulation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pruyt, E.; Logtens, T.; Gijsbers, G.

2011-01-01

Plausible dynamics of a major demographic shift –(societal) aging– is studied in this paper, both from a global perspective and from a national perspective. Several economic, political and social implications of aging and aging-related demographic shifts are explored using System Dynamics models as

Recent and prospective population trends in Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, G W; Tan, P C

1985-09-01

Recent population trends in Malaysia are reviewed, with the focus on Peninsular Malaysia. Separate consideration is given to population growth between 1970 and 1980; mortality trends; period and cohort fertility trends; factors affecting fertility, including changes in age structure, nuptiality, and other socioeconomic and demographic changes; and the recent development of a pro-natalist policy involving a goal of a population of 70 million by 2050.

A parsimonious characterization of change in global age-specific and total fertility rates

Science.gov (United States)

2018-01-01

This study aims to understand trends in global fertility from 1950-2010 though the analysis of age-specific fertility rates. This approach incorporates both the overall level, as when the total fertility rate is modeled, and different patterns of age-specific fertility to examine the relationship between changes in age-specific fertility and fertility decline. Singular value decomposition is used to capture the variation in age-specific fertility curves while reducing the number of dimensions, allowing curves to be described nearly fully with three parameters. Regional patterns and trends over time are evident in parameter values, suggesting this method provides a useful tool for considering fertility decline globally. The second and third parameters were analyzed using model-based clustering to examine patterns of age-specific fertility over time and place; four clusters were obtained. A country’s demographic transition can be traced through time by membership in the different clusters, and regional patterns in the trajectories through time and with fertility decline are identified. PMID:29377899

Relationships between socio-clinico-demographic factors and global cognitive function in the oldest old living in the Tokyo Metropolitan area: Reanalysis of the Tokyo Oldest Old Survey on Total Health (TOOTH).

Science.gov (United States)

Eguchi, Yoko; Tasato, Kumiko; Nakajima, Shinichiro; Noda, Yoshihiro; Tsugawa, Sakiko; Shinagawa, Shunichiro; Niimura, Hidehito; Hirose, Nobuyoshi; Arai, Yasumichi; Mimura, Masaru

2018-03-07

Despite a steady increase in life expectancy, a few studies have investigated cross-sectional correlates and longitudinal predictors of cognitive function, a core domain of the successful aging, among socio-clinico-demographic factors in the oldest-old exclusively. The aims of this study were to examine socio-clinico-demographic characteristics associated with global cognition and its changes in the oldest-old. We reanalyzed a dataset of cognitively preserved community-dwelling subjects aged 85 years and older in the Tokyo Oldest Old Survey on Total Health, a 6-year longitudinal observational study. This study consisted of (1) baseline cross-sectional analyses examining correlates of global cognition (n = 248) among socio-clinico-demographic factors and (2) longitudinal analyses examining baseline predictors for changes of global cognition in 3-year follow-up (n = 195). The Mini-Mental State Examination was used as a screening test to assess global cognition. At baseline, higher weights were related to higher cognitive function in the oldest-old. The baseline predictors of global cognitive decline in 3-year follow-up were higher global cognition, shorter education period, and lower sociocultural activities and lower instrumental activity of daily living, in this order. The present study suggests that it is crucial to attain higher education during early life and avoid leanness or obesity, participate in sociocultural cognitive activities during late life, and maintain instrumental activity of daily living to preserve optimal cognitive function in the oldest-old, which will facilitate developing prevention strategies for cognitive decline and promoting successful aging in this increasing population. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Development trends of the international derivatives market

OpenAIRE

Motorniuk, U.; Terebukh, M.; Kharchuk, V.

2016-01-01

The factors forming international derivatives market trends are researched in this article. The history of the formation of the global derivatives market was analyzed, in particular, events which have led to the growth of the derivatives market. Global derivatives market has revealed major changes in its trends and witnessed the gradual transformation of its structure, observed in recent years. Global derivatives market has revealed major changes in its trends and witnessed the gradual transf...

Evaluating temporal consistency of long-term global NDVI datasets for trend analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tian, Feng; Fensholt, Rasmus; Verbesselt, Jan

2015-01-01

-sensor NDVI time series by analyzing the co-occurrence between breaks in the NDVI time series and sensor shifts from GIMMS3g (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies 3rd generation), VIP3 (Vegetation Index and Phenology version 3), LTDR4 (Long Term Data Record version 4) and SPOT-VGT (Système Pour l......, potentially introducing uncertainties in NDVI trend analysis. Platform/sensor change from VGT-1 to VGT-2 is found to cause a significant positive break in the SPOT-VGT NDVI time series. Potential artifacts exist in humid, dry-subhumid, semi-arid and hyper-arid regions of GIMMS3g NDVI, whereas no signs...

Online Teaching Tool for Sinus Surgery: Trends toward Mobile and Global Education

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George K. Koch DMD

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Objective Online resources may provide an ideal forum for expert presentation of surgical techniques. The purpose of this study was to investigate utilization patterns of a sinus surgery website, SinusVideos.com , to gain insight into the needs of viewers. Study Design Retrospective analysis. Setting Surgical teaching website. Subjects and Methods The website’s anonymized analytic database was queried from 2009 to 2014. Quantified data included user demographics, geographic location, viewing device, page visits, and time spent on the website. Results A total of 428,691 website pages were viewed during the study period. Growth in viewership was observed each successive year since the site was launched. The mean time spent viewing webpages was 96.1 seconds for desktop computer users, 98.0 for tablet users, and 103.8 for mobile users. The percentage of mobile devices used to view the site increased significantly between 2009 and 2014 (2.1% vs 25.4%, respectively; P < .0001. The website’s viewership expanded globally, with a significant increase in site views from outside North America over this same period (18.4% vs 51.7%, P < .0001. Conclusion The observed increase in global participation and mobile device usage may reflect new areas of growth for surgical education.

Demography, Growth, and Global Income Inequality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rougoor, Ward; Van Marrewijk, Charles

2015-01-01

Global income inequality has been declining for several decades. We argue that global income inequality will reach its lowest level around 2027 and then will rise again. This development is the result of both economic and demographic forces. By combining economic projections with demographic

Relationship between Psycho-Demographic Factors and Perception ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Even though global, corruption is assuming a worrisome dimension in Nigeria. This study investigated the relationship between psychological and demographic factors in predicting the perception of corruption. The cross-sectional correlational study included 600 civil servants; 320 males and 280 females following ...

Toward 2000. Trends Report II: Elementary-Secondary Projections.

Science.gov (United States)

Press, Harold L.

Comprehensive, systematic planning provides the overall direction for education through the development of policies and objectives. An understanding of demographic, social, and economic trends is necessary for educators to make decisions for the future. The 1986 demographic forecasts for the province of Newfoundland are updated in this report,…

Trends in contraceptive use and distribution of births with demographic risk factors in Ethiopia: a sub-national analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Shiferaw, Solomon; Abdullah, Muna; Mekonnen, Yared; Maïga, Abdoulaye; Akinyemi, Akanni; Amouzou, Agbessi; Friedman, Howard; Barros, Aluisio J D; Hounton, Sennen

2015-01-01

Evidence shows that family planning contributes to the decline in child mortality by decreasing the proportions of births that are considered high risk. The main objective of the present analysis was to examine the trends in use of modern contraceptives and their relationship with total fertility rate (TFR) and distribution of births by demographic risk factors as defined by mother's age, birth interval, and birth order at the sub-national level in Ethiopia. Analyses used data from three Demographic and Health Surveys in Ethiopia (2000, 2005, and 2011), which are nationally representative data collected through questionnaire-based interviews from women 15-49 using a stratified, two-stage cluster sampling. First, we examined the trends of and relationship between TFR (in the 3 years before each survey) and modern contraceptive use among currently married women in all administrative regions over the time period 2000-2011 using linear regression analysis. We also examined the relationship between birth risks and under-five mortality using the no-risk group as a reference. Finally, multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to estimate the relationship between the effect of being a resident in one of the regions and having an avoidable birth risk (which includes births to mothers younger than 18 and older than 34 years, birth interval of less than 24 months and birth order higher than third) after adjusting for select covariates including wealth, educational status, residence, religion and exposure to family planning information. Sub-national-level regression analysis showed an inverse relationship between modern contraceptive use among married women and the TFR, with an average decrease of TFR by one child per woman associated with a 13 percentage point increase in modern contraceptive use between 2000 and 2011. A high percentage of births in Ethiopia (62%) fall in one of the risk categories (excluding first births), with wide regional variation from 55% in

Trends in contraceptive use and distribution of births with demographic risk factors in Ethiopia: a sub-national analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Solomon Shiferaw

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Background: Evidence shows that family planning contributes to the decline in child mortality by decreasing the proportions of births that are considered high risk. The main objective of the present analysis was to examine the trends in use of modern contraceptives and their relationship with total fertility rate (TFR and distribution of births by demographic risk factors as defined by mother's age, birth interval, and birth order at the sub-national level in Ethiopia. Design: Analyses used data from three Demographic and Health Surveys in Ethiopia (2000, 2005, and 2011, which are nationally representative data collected through questionnaire-based interviews from women 15–49 using a stratified, two-stage cluster sampling. First, we examined the trends of and relationship between TFR (in the 3 years before each survey and modern contraceptive use among currently married women in all administrative regions over the time period 2000–2011 using linear regression analysis. We also examined the relationship between birth risks and under-five mortality using the no-risk group as a reference. Finally, multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to estimate the relationship between the effect of being a resident in one of the regions and having an avoidable birth risk (which includes births to mothers younger than 18 and older than 34 years, birth interval of less than 24 months and birth order higher than third after adjusting for select covariates including wealth, educational status, residence, religion and exposure to family planning information. Results: Sub-national-level regression analysis showed an inverse relationship between modern contraceptive use among married women and the TFR, with an average decrease of TFR by one child per woman associated with a 13 percentage point increase in modern contraceptive use between 2000 and 2011. A high percentage of births in Ethiopia (62% fall in one of the risk categories (excluding first

Global energy and technology trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, Hans-Holger

2008-01-01

from the world's nuclear power reactors has continued to climb steadily, although the amount of new nuclear capacity coming on line each year has dropped substanially since its peak in 1980s. Looking ahead to nuclear power's prospects in the new century, four features stand out: (1) new nuclear power plants are not being built fast enough to maintain nuclear power's 16% share of global electricity generation; (2) current expansion, as well as near-term and long term growth prospects, are centered in Asia; (3) but 2002 also saw some signs of revitalized growth in Western Europe and North america, where growth has stagnated because of economics, market liberalization, and excess capacity; (4) long-term projections for nuclear power, particularly in the event of international agreement to significantly limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, are more bullish than near term trends. The key determining factor will be economics. In considering how to meet the world's growing need for enegy, it is important to recognize that each country is unique in itself and that every country uses a mix of energy supplies because: (1) different technologies are needed to meet diferent needs, e.g. for baseload power in contrast to peak power, or for meeting concentrated demand in megacities in contrast to that required by small users in remote areas; (2) evolution of the energy supply is uneven, and new technologies replace older ones in fits and starts and with overlaps; (3) different investors choose different technologies based on different requirements and perceptions about profitability and risk; (4) fast growing countries like China may need to expand all energy sources simultaneously just to keep up with growing demand. Moreover, the right mix for each country depends partly on how fast a country's energy demand is growing; on the country's energy resources and alternatives; on the available financing options and whether the investment is in a deregulated market that values rapid

Journal Publication in Chile, Colombia, and Venezuela: University Responses to Global, Regional, and National Pressures and Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Delgado, Jorge Enrique

2011-01-01

Background. This project was motivated by the impressive growth that scholarly/scientific journals in Latin America have shown in recent decades. That advance is attributed to global, regional, and national pressures and trends, as well as a response to obstacles that scholars/researchers from the region face to be published in prestigious…

Global Trends in Mercury Management

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Kyunghee

2012-01-01

The United Nations Environmental Program Governing Council has regulated mercury as a global pollutant since 2001 and has been preparing the mercury convention, which will have a strongly binding force through Global Mercury Assessment, Global Mercury Partnership Activities, and establishment of the Open-Ended Working Group on Mercury. The European Union maintains an inclusive strategy on risks and contamination of mercury, and has executed the Mercury Export Ban Act since December in 2010. The US Environmental Protection Agency established the Mercury Action Plan (1998) and the Mercury Roadmap (2006) and has proposed systematic mercury management methods to reduce the health risks posed by mercury exposure. Japan, which experienced Minamata disease, aims vigorously at perfection in mercury management in several ways. In Korea, the Ministry of Environment established the Comprehensive Plan and Countermeasures for Mercury Management to prepare for the mercury convention and to reduce risks of mercury to protect public health. PMID:23230466

Globalization and local response to epidemiological overlap in 21st century Ecuador

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Waters William F

2006-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Third World countries are confronted by a complex overlay of two sets of health problems. Traditional maladies, including communicable diseases, malnutrition, and environmental health hazards coexist with emerging health challenges, including cardiovascular disease, cancer, and increasing levels of obesity. Using Ecuador as an example, this paper proposes a conceptual framework for linking epidemiologic overlap to emerging social structures and processes at the national and global levels. Discussion Epidemiologic trends can be seen as part of broader processes related to globalization, but this does not imply that globalization is a monolithic force that inevitably and uniformly affects nations, communities, and households in the same manner. Rather, characteristics and forms of social organization at the subnational level can shape the way that globalization takes place. Thus, globalization has affected Ecuador in specific ways and is, at the same time, intimately related to the form in which the epidemiologic transition has transpired in that country. Summary Ecuador is among neither the poorest nor the wealthiest countries and its situation may illuminate trends in other parts of the world. As in other countries, insertion into the global economy has not taken place in a vacuum; rather, Ecuador has experienced unprecedented social and demographic change in the past several decades, producing profound transformation in its social structure. Examples of local represent alternatives to centralized health systems that do not effectively address the complex overlay of traditional and emerging health problems.

Rising trends and inequalities in cesarean section rates in Pakistan: Evidence from Pakistan Demographic and Health Surveys, 1990-2013.

Science.gov (United States)

Mumtaz, Sarwat; Bahk, Jinwook; Khang, Young-Ho

2017-01-01

Despite global efforts to improve maternal health, many developing countries including Pakistan have failed to achieve the target of a 75% reduction in maternal deaths by 2015. Addressing socioeconomic inequalities in access to emergency obstetric care is crucial for reducing the maternal mortality rate. This study was done to examine the time trends and socioeconomic inequalities in the utilization of cesarean section (C-section) in Pakistan during 1990-2013. We used data from the Pakistan Demographic and Health Surveys (PDHS) conducted during 1990 to 2013. All these surveys are nationally representative surveys of ever-married women aged 15-49 years with a sample size of 6611, 10,023, and 13,558 women in 1990-1991, 2006-2007, and 2012-2013, respectively, with an overall response rate of over 90%. The unit of analysis for this study was women with their most recent live birth in the five years preceding the surveys. Bivariate analyses and multivariable logistic regression models were employed to investigate the prevalence of cesarean sections according to selected sociodemographic characteristics of women. C-section rates were found to have increased during this period, with an especially significant rise from 2.7% in 1990-1991 to 15.8% in 2012-2013 with lower utilization among the non-educated women (7.5%), compared with the women with higher education (40.3%). C-section rates ranged from 5.5% in the poorest women to 35.3% in the richest women. Only 11.5% of the rural women had a C-section compared to 25.6% of the urban women. A greater likelihood of having a cesarean section was observed in the richest, highly educated, and urban-living women while there was no significant difference observed in cesarean section rates between the private and public sectors in all three surveys. To improve maternal health, routine monitoring and evaluation of the provision of emergency obstetric services are needed to address the underuse of C-section in poor and rural areas and

Rising trends and inequalities in cesarean section rates in Pakistan: Evidence from Pakistan Demographic and Health Surveys, 1990-2013.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarwat Mumtaz

Full Text Available Despite global efforts to improve maternal health, many developing countries including Pakistan have failed to achieve the target of a 75% reduction in maternal deaths by 2015. Addressing socioeconomic inequalities in access to emergency obstetric care is crucial for reducing the maternal mortality rate. This study was done to examine the time trends and socioeconomic inequalities in the utilization of cesarean section (C-section in Pakistan during 1990-2013. We used data from the Pakistan Demographic and Health Surveys (PDHS conducted during 1990 to 2013. All these surveys are nationally representative surveys of ever-married women aged 15-49 years with a sample size of 6611, 10,023, and 13,558 women in 1990-1991, 2006-2007, and 2012-2013, respectively, with an overall response rate of over 90%. The unit of analysis for this study was women with their most recent live birth in the five years preceding the surveys. Bivariate analyses and multivariable logistic regression models were employed to investigate the prevalence of cesarean sections according to selected sociodemographic characteristics of women. C-section rates were found to have increased during this period, with an especially significant rise from 2.7% in 1990-1991 to 15.8% in 2012-2013 with lower utilization among the non-educated women (7.5%, compared with the women with higher education (40.3%. C-section rates ranged from 5.5% in the poorest women to 35.3% in the richest women. Only 11.5% of the rural women had a C-section compared to 25.6% of the urban women. A greater likelihood of having a cesarean section was observed in the richest, highly educated, and urban-living women while there was no significant difference observed in cesarean section rates between the private and public sectors in all three surveys. To improve maternal health, routine monitoring and evaluation of the provision of emergency obstetric services are needed to address the underuse of C-section in poor and

Longitudinal trends in global obesity research and collaboration: a review using bibliometric metadata.

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, A; Choudhury, N; Uddin, S; Hossain, L; Baur, L A

2016-04-01

The goal of this study was to understand research trends and collaboration patterns together with scholarly impact within the domain of global obesity research. We developed and analysed bibliographic affiliation data collected from 117,340 research articles indexed in Scopus database on the topic of obesity and published from 1993-2012. We found steady growth and an exponential increase of publication numbers. Research output in global obesity research roughly doubled each 5 years, with almost 80% of the publications and authors from the second decade (2003-2012). The highest publication output was from the USA - 42% of publications had at least one author from the USA. Many US institutions also ranked highly in terms of research output and collaboration. Fifteen of the top-20 institutions in terms of publication output were from the USA; however, several European and Japanese research institutions ranked more highly in terms of average citations per paper. The majority of obesity research and collaboration has been confined to developed countries although developing countries have showed higher growth in recent times, e.g. the publication ratio between 2003-2012 and 1993-2002 for developing regions was much higher than that of developed regions (9:1 vs. 4:1). We also identified around 42 broad disciplines from authors' affiliation data, and these showed strong collaboration between them. Overall, this study provides one of the most comprehensive longitudinal bibliometric analyses of obesity research. This should help in understanding research trends, spatial density, collaboration patterns and the complex multi-disciplinary nature of research in the obesity domain. © 2016 World Obesity.

Peatland Organic Matter Chemistry Trends Over a Global Latitudinal Gradient

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Verbeke, B. A.; Hodgkins, S. B.; Carson, M. A.; Lamit, L. J.; Lilleskov, E.; Chanton, J.

2017-12-01

Peatlands contain a significant amount of the global soil carbon, and the climate feedback of carbon cycling within these peatland systems is still relatively unknown. Organic matter composition of peatlands plays a major role in determining carbon storage, and while high latitude peatlands seem to be the most sensitive to climate change, a global picture of peat organic matter chemistry is required to improve predictions and models of greenhouse gas emissions fueled by peatland decomposition. The objective of this research is to test the hypothesis that carbohydrate content of peatlands near the equator will be lower than high latitude peatlands, while aromatic content will be higher. As a part of the Global Peatland Microbiome Project (GPMP), around 2000 samples of peat from 10 to 70 cm across a latitudinal gradient of 79 N to 53 S were measured with Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) to examine the organic matter functional groups of peat. Carbohydrate and aromatic content, as determined by FTIR, are useful proxies of decomposition potential and recalcitrance, respectively. We found a highly significant relationship between carbohydrate and aromatic content, latitude, and depth. Carbohydrate content of high latitude sites were significantly greater than at sites near the equator, in contrast to aromatic content which showed the opposite trend. It is also clear that carbohydrate content decreases with depth while aromatic content increases with depth. Higher carbohydrate content at higher latitudes indicates a greater potential for lability and resultant mineralization to form the greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane, whereas the composition of low latitude peatlands is consistent with their apparent stability. We speculate that the combination of low carbohydrates and high aromatics at warmer locations near the equator could foreshadow the organic matter composition of high latitude peat transitioning to a more recalcitrant form with a

SOCIOECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC VARIATION IN NUTRITIONAL STATUS OF UNDER-FIVE BANGLADESHI CHILDREN AND TREND OVER THE TWELVE-YEAR PERIOD 1996-2007.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohsena, Masuda; Goto, Rie; Mascie-Taylor, C G Nicholas

2017-03-01

The nutritional status of under-five-year-old children is a sensitive indicator of a country's health status as well as economic condition. The objectives of this study were to analyse trends in the nutritional status in Bangladeshi children over the period 1996-2007 and to examine the associations between nutritional and socioeconomic status variables. Bangladesh Demographic Health Surveys (BDHS) were the source of data, and a total of 16,278 children were examined. The Z-scores of the children were analysed as continuous as well as categorical variables (stunted, underweight and wasted). The socioeconomic status variables used were region, urban-rural residence, education and occupation of the parents, house type and household possession score. A series of General Linear Model and Sequential Linear and Binary Logistic Regression analyses were done to assess the relationship between demographic and socioeconomic variables and nutritional status. The trends of Z-scores were analysed by survey, as well as by child birth cohort. Region, house type, educational level of parents and household possession score showed significant associations with all three Z-scores of children after removing the effects of age, period of DHS and other explanatory variables in the model. No significant sex difference was observed between any of the Z-scores. There were improvements in mean WAZ and HAZ between 1996 and 2007 but deterioration in mean WHZ over this period. The obesity rate was below 2% in 2007, although the absolute numbers of obese children had nearly doubled in this 12-year period. Children from poorer households showed greater improvement than their better-off counterparts. The study reveals that over the years there has been substantial improvement in nutritional status of under-five children in Bangladesh and the main gains have been amongst the lower socioeconomic groups; it is also evident that malnutrition in Bangladesh is a multidimensional problem, like poverty

Demographic Analysis and Planning for the Future. No. 13.

Science.gov (United States)

Efird, Cathy M.

The basic sources and types of demographic data available for future planning for the developmentally disabled are reviewed and a frame work for data organization is suggested. It is explained that future forecasts may be undertaken by the following principles: trend forecasting or extrapolation; scenario construction; models, games, and…

Travel and tourism trends

Science.gov (United States)

Deborah J. Chavez

1995-01-01

Demographic trends which impact leisure time activities are highlighted, with particular emphasis given to the impacts of the growth of minority populations. Data was collected from recreationists to National Forests and from residents of an urban community. The data indicate a shift in outdoor recreation activities.

Demographic factors and traffic crashes. Part 1, descriptive statistics and models

Science.gov (United States)

1998-08-01

This research analyzes the Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicle's (DHSMV) 1993 to 1995 crash data. There are four demographic variables investigated throughout the research, which are age, gender, race, and residency. To show general trends...

Demographic and economic disparities among Arctic regions

OpenAIRE

Schmidt, Jennifer Irene; Aanesen, Margrethe; Klokov, Konstantin; Kruschov, Sergei; Hausner, Vera Helene

2015-01-01

Accepted manuscript version. Published version at http://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2015.1065926. We use demographic and economic indicators to analyze spatial differences and temporal trends across 18 regions surrounding the Arctic Ocean. Multifactor and cluster analysis were used on 10 indicators reflecting income, employment and demography from 1995 to 2008. The main difference is between regions with high population densities, low natural growth rate, and low unemployment (Ru...

Impact of demographic changes on higher education institutions : Llithuania in a global context

OpenAIRE

Grebliauskas, Artūras; Leskauskaitė, Aušra

2012-01-01

The present article raises the following problematic questions: how have higher education institutions prepared themselves for facing challenges coming from the environment modified by demographic changes? What new strategic directions in higher education institutions operation are determined by a steadily-decreasing number of students? This research purposes: firstly, to inquire into the impact of demographic changes on higher education institutions activities, and, secondly, to determine ho...

Monitoring of health and demographic outcomes in poor urban settlements: evidence from the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System.

Science.gov (United States)

Emina, Jacques; Beguy, Donatien; Zulu, Eliya M; Ezeh, Alex C; Muindi, Kanyiva; Elung'ata, Patricia; Otsola, John K; Yé, Yazoumé

2011-06-01

The Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS) was set up in Korogocho and Viwandani slum settlements to provide a platform for investigating linkages between urban poverty, health, and demographic and other socioeconomic outcomes, and to facilitate the evaluation of interventions to improve the wellbeing of the urban poor. Data from the NUHDSS confirm the high level of population mobility in slum settlements, and also demonstrate that slum settlements are long-term homes for many people. Research and intervention programs should take account of the duality of slum residency. Consistent with the trends observed countrywide, the data show substantial improvements in measures of child mortality, while there has been limited decline in fertility in slum settlements. The NUHDSS experience has shown that it is feasible to set up and implement long-term health and demographic surveillance system in urban slum settlements and to generate vital data for guiding policy and actions aimed at improving the wellbeing of the urban poor.

Trends of the seagrass Cymodocea nodosa (Magnoliophyta in the Canary Islands: population changes in the last two decades

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Federico Fabbri

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Seagrass meadows perform essential ecosystem functions and services. Though the meadows are globally deteriorating, numerous regressions remain unreported as a result of data fragmentation. Cymodocea nodosa is the most important seagrass in shallow coastal waters of the Canary Islands. No study has so far investigated temporal population trends at the entire archipelago scale. Using data collected in the past 23 years by local companies, public authorities and research groups, the population trends of Cymodocea nodosa were analysed over the past two decades at the scales of islands, island sectors and meadows. During this period, a prevalence of negative trends was revealed for three seagrass demographic descriptors (seagrass shoot density, coverage and leaf length at the three scales, evidencing an overall deterioration in seagrass meadow integrity. These results suggest the need to develop correct management strategies to guarantee the conservation of this seagrass and the meadows it creates.

Trends and Issues: Social and Economic Context. Revised.

Science.gov (United States)

Cunningham, Chris, Comp.

This document presents an outline of a number of social, economic, and demographic trends that influence the effectiveness of instruction and the social development of youth across the country. It contains numbers and statistics, recommendations, and implications, along with 30 references. The document covers trends in the following areas: (1)…

Building global and diffuse solar radiation series and assessing decadal trends in Girona (NE Iberian Peninsula)

Science.gov (United States)

Calbó, Josep; González, Josep-Abel; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo

2017-08-01

Measurement of solar radiation was initiated in Girona, northeast of the Iberian Peninsula, in the late 1980s. Initially, two pyranometers were installed, one of them equipped with a shadowband for measuring the diffuse component. Two other pyranometers currently exist, both ventilated and one of them shadowed, with a sphere, and a pyrheliometer for measuring direct radiation. Additional instruments for other shortwave and longwave components, clouds, and atmospheric aerosols have been installed in recent years. The station is subject to daily inspection, data are saved at high temporal resolution, and instruments are periodically calibrated, all in accordance with the directions of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network. The present paper describes how the entire series of global solar radiation (1987-2014) and diffuse radiation (1994-2014) were built, including the quality control process. Appropriate corrections to the diffuse component were made when a shadowband was employed to make measurements. Analysis of the series reveals that annual mean global irradiance presents a statistically significant increase of 2.5 W m-2 (1.4 %) decade-1 (1988-2014 period), mainly due to what occurs in summer (5.6 W m-2 decade-1). These results constitute the first assessment of solar radiation trends for the northeastern region of the Iberian Peninsula and are consistent with trends observed in the regional surroundings and also by satellite platforms, in agreement with the global brightening phenomenon. Diffuse radiation has decreased at -1.3 W m-2 (-2 %) decade-1 (1994-2014 period), which is a further indication of the reduced cloudiness and/or aerosol load causing the changes.

Trends and driving mechanism of land-use change in metropolitan areas of Pearl River Delta

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Feng-gui; Zhang, Hong-ou; Wang, Juan; Wu, Qi-tao

2008-10-01

Taking Pearl River Delta for an example this study focuses on the trends and the driving mechanism of land-use changes in metropolises, in order to achieve the fundamental objectives of LUCC study increasing the awareness on dynamics of global land-use and land-cover changes, and improving the ability of forecasting LUCC. By analyzing the land-use change in Pearl River Delta from 1996 to 2006, it is found that the differences among internal space are notable. By establishing time-sequence-curve with SPSS software, it is shown that trends of land-use change are very clear. With factor analysis on land-use change, the study summarizes four factors of driving mechanism, including factors of economic development level, regional industrial structure, demographic and agricultural structure adjustment, which impact land change in Pearl River Delta to a different extent.

Are Global Economic Losses from Natural Hazards Increasing?

Science.gov (United States)

McMullan, Caroline; Simic, Milan; Tosco, Antonello; Latchman, Shane

2016-04-01

Global society has long been influenced by natural hazards, but it has been widely noted that the economic cost of natural hazards has been rising rapidly over recent decades. This upward trend highlights the increasing exposure of the global economy to natural hazards and the need for society to understand the driving factors to help improve the resilience of communities. However disaster risk is driven by a plethora of factors, including population, wealth, land-use, and demographics. Consider also the natural variability in the frequency and severity of events, climate change, and implementation of resilience policies, and it becomes clear that disaster-risk management is a challenging field. To investigate the apparent upward trend in reported annual economic losses from natural disasters, socioeconomic factors known to influence the magnitude of losses must first be accounted for. Adjustment for these factors, known as loss normalisation, aims to estimate the losses sustained if historical events were to impact present day society. We have undertaken a detailed assessment of global economic losses from natural disasters for the period 1995 through 2013. Although the studied time-period is relatively short, expanding the investigated period would not necessarily produce more reliable insights owing to the inherent difficulty in obtaining accurate economic loss estimates for earlier periods and the challenge of finding consistent and reliable sources of socioeconomic data for the normalisation process. The results of the study, presented at a global and regional level, appear to suggest that the main driver of perceived increase in economic losses over the last ~20 years was the development of nations' economies (i.e. increase in population and wealth/GDP) and not in the natural hazards themselves. As populations all over the world migrate into areas of higher natural hazards regions (e.g. coastal areas or floodplain zones) and global wealth continues to

Global hydrology 2015: State, trends, and directions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bierkens, Marc F. P.

Global hydrology has come a long way since the first introduction of the primitive land surface model of Manabe (1969) and the declaration of the “Emergence of Global Hydrology” by Eagleson (1986). Hydrological submodels of varying complexity are now part of global climate models, of models

The socio-demographic aspects of building social infrastructure in the city of Moscow

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Strashnova Yuliya gennad’evna

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Subject: the influence of the socio-demographic factor on the development of the network of facilities of the social infrastructure of the city (on the example of Moscow is explored. The interrelation between socio-demographic development and the formation of the consumer demand for services and various types of facilities is revealed. The main socio-demographic concepts and measures determining a need to develop and site the facilities throughout the city are considered. Thus, the social, age and family structure of the resident population determine the typology and functional structure of facilities. The “daytime” population, its structure and concentration areas determine the volume and the new construction sites of residential buildings. The “temporary” population (including tourists, transit passengers, business travelers and other population categories, staying in the city for more than 24 hours specifies the need for the construction of hotels, hostels and other collective accommodation facilities. Economically active population creates demand for jobs, including those created on the basis of social infrastructure. Objectives: to explain the need for taking into account the modern and perspective trends in population development during the preparation of the territorial and urban planning documents; to consider the particularities of the socio-demographic characteristics included when forecasting the need to develop the social facilities, creating workplaces, taking into account the transition to the economy of services and information technologies, in designing a citywide system, including transport hubs. Materials and methods: the research was conducted on the basis of official statistics (Rosstat, Mosgorstat, of line departments and offices of the city of Moscow. Statistical, analytical, sociological methods of research, expert assessments, analogies, field survey, mathematical modeling are used. Results: modern and perspective

Accounting for rate variation among lineages in comparative demographic analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Hope, Andrew G.; Ho, Simon Y. W.; Malaney, Jason L.; Cook, Joseph A.; Talbot, Sandra L.

2014-01-01

Genetic analyses of contemporary populations can be used to estimate the demographic histories of species within an ecological community. Comparison of these demographic histories can shed light on community responses to past climatic events. However, species experience different rates of molecular evolution, and this presents a major obstacle to comparative demographic analyses. We address this problem by using a Bayesian relaxed-clock method to estimate the relative evolutionary rates of 22 small mammal taxa distributed across northwestern North America. We found that estimates of the relative molecular substitution rate for each taxon were consistent across the range of sampling schemes that we compared. Using three different reference rates, we rescaled the relative rates so that they could be used to estimate absolute evolutionary timescales. Accounting for rate variation among taxa led to temporal shifts in our skyline-plot estimates of demographic history, highlighting both uniform and idiosyncratic evolutionary responses to directional climate trends for distinct ecological subsets of the small mammal community. Our approach can be used in evolutionary analyses of populations from multiple species, including comparative demographic studies.

Trends and characteristics affecting disability among older Canadians living in private households

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Samuel Vézina

2013-10-01

Full Text Available As the first of the Boomers reach age 65 in 2011, it is of great interest to identify trends in disability to better predict future needs and resources within community care. This paper uses data from four national datasets to investigate trends in disability rates and examine socio-demographic characteristics associated with disability. Results show a decrease in the overall disability prevalence rate. However, no significant trend in levels of disability was identified for the period 1994/95–2000/01 when controlling for socio-demographic variables, suggesting stability in the probability of being disabled over time.

Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Present-day distribution and trends of tropospheric ozone relevant to climate and global atmospheric chemistry model evaluation

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A. Gaudel

2018-05-01

Full Text Available 'The Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report' (TOAR is an activity of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Project. This paper is a component of the report, focusing on the present-day distribution and trends of tropospheric ozone relevant to climate and global atmospheric chemistry model evaluation. Utilizing the TOAR surface ozone database, several figures present the global distribution and trends of daytime average ozone at 2702 non-urban monitoring sites, highlighting the regions and seasons of the world with the greatest ozone levels. Similarly, ozonesonde and commercial aircraft observations reveal ozone’s distribution throughout the depth of the free troposphere. Long-term surface observations are limited in their global spatial coverage, but data from remote locations indicate that ozone in the 21st century is greater than during the 1970s and 1980s. While some remote sites and many sites in the heavily polluted regions of East Asia show ozone increases since 2000, many others show decreases and there is no clear global pattern for surface ozone changes since 2000. Two new satellite products provide detailed views of ozone in the lower troposphere across East Asia and Europe, revealing the full spatial extent of the spring and summer ozone enhancements across eastern China that cannot be assessed from limited surface observations. Sufficient data are now available (ozonesondes, satellite, aircraft across the tropics from South America eastwards to the western Pacific Ocean, to indicate a likely tropospheric column ozone increase since the 1990s. The 2014–2016 mean tropospheric ozone burden (TOB between 60°N–60°S from five satellite products is 300 Tg ± 4%. While this agreement is excellent, the products differ in their quantification of TOB trends and further work is required to reconcile the differences. Satellites can now estimate ozone’s global long-wave radiative effect, but evaluation is difficult due to limited

Demographic Structural Theory: 25 Years On

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Jack A. Goldstone

2017-12-01

Full Text Available I am grateful to Cliodynamics for this special issue revisiting the ideas put forth in Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (Goldstone 1991, 2016 a quarter century ago. The two things that one could hope for in advancing any theory are that it proves capable of being advanced and enriched by other scholars, and that it proves capable of being applied in new ways and to new phenomena that were not anticipated. This issue gives examples of both, and shows how scholars are even now only beginning to tap the possibilities of Demographic Structural Theory (DST in explaining politics, history, and long-term economic trends. In this essay, I will tell the story of how demographic structural theory was conceived, relate its early reception among scholars, and comment on the important contributions by other scholars to this special issue.

Global trends in radiation processing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Defalco, G.

2003-01-01

There will be a brief introduction of the companies of MDS serving the Medical, Biotechnology and Pharmaceutical sectors worldwide. MDS Nordion will be introduced in more detail focused on the products and services of our Nuclear Medicine and Ion Technologies business units. World Trends and issues in Radiation Processing will be discussed on: Sterilization of Medical Devices, Pharmaceuticals, Cosmetics and Consumer products and finally I will present an overview on Food Irradiation progress worldwide

Trend analysis from 1970 to 2008 and model evaluation of EDGARv4 global gridded anthropogenic mercury emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muntean, Marilena; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Song, Shaojie; Selin, Noelle E.; Olivier, Jos G.J.; Guizzardi, Diego; Maas, Rob; Dentener, Frank

2014-01-01

generally reproduce both spatial variations and long-term trends in total gaseous mercury concentrations and wet deposition fluxes. - Highlights: • A global mercury emission inventory over the past four decades was established. • The inventory was at the lower range of the UNEP Minamata estimates. • The inventory was evaluated using a global 3-D mercury model GEOS-Chem. • The model reproduced spatial variations and long-term trends

Trend analysis from 1970 to 2008 and model evaluation of EDGARv4 global gridded anthropogenic mercury emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Muntean, Marilena, E-mail: marilena.muntean@jrc.ec.europa.eu [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (Italy); Janssens-Maenhout, Greet [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (Italy); Song, Shaojie; Selin, Noelle E. [Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA (United States); Olivier, Jos G.J. [PBL Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Guizzardi, Diego [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (Italy); Maas, Rob [RIVM National Institute for Public Health and Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Dentener, Frank [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (Italy)

2014-10-01

model can generally reproduce both spatial variations and long-term trends in total gaseous mercury concentrations and wet deposition fluxes. - Highlights: • A global mercury emission inventory over the past four decades was established. • The inventory was at the lower range of the UNEP Minamata estimates. • The inventory was evaluated using a global 3-D mercury model GEOS-Chem. • The model reproduced spatial variations and long-term trends.

DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES INFLUENCING INDIVIDUAL ENTREPRENEURIAL ORIENTATION AND STRATEGIC THINKING CAPABILITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lara Jelenc

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Strategic thinking capability is interesting part of the cognitive development of each entrepreneur. This paper develops on notion that there a number of demographic variables that shape the behavior of each particular elements of entrepreneurial orientation and strategic component of each entrepreneur. The demographic variable that have significant role will take the role of moderator in further research. Since both constructs are multidimensional, the demographic variables are not influencing them in the same way. The empirical research has been performed on IT firms in Croatia in 2014. Individual entrepreneurial orientation is measured by the construct developed by Bolton and Lane’s (2012 individual entrepreneurial orientation instrument. The instrument is grounded in the seminal work of Miller (1983, Covin and Slevin (1986; 1988; 1989, Lumpkin and Dess (1996 and Covin and Wales (2011; consisting of three dimensions – risk-taking, innovation, and proactiveness. Strategic thinking was measured by Pisapia’s (2009 Strategic thinking questionnaire (STQ. The STQ asked respondents to rate how often they use systems thinking, reframing, and reflecting skills. Within the framework of individual entrepreneurial orientation the following demographic variables shape the trends: age, gender, education abroad and previous experience. Entrepreneurs between 40-60 years old are less prone to risk, female entrepreneurs are more proactive than men, education abroad provides with the additional proactiveness and the entrepreneur with previous experience is prone to higher risk, proactiveness and innovativeness. Within the framework of strategic thinking capability the following demographic variables shape the trends: age, gender, education and experience. Entrepreneurs older than 60 score high on system thinking as well as females, females also score higher on reframing. Entrepreneurs with PhD degree score lower on reframing, while managers working more

Characterization and adequacy of the use of radiotherapy and its trend in time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palacios Eito, Amalia; Cabezas, Sonia García; Font Ugalde, Pilar; Rivin del Campo, Eleonor; Otero Romero, Ana; Mar Pérez Martín, María del; Roldán Arjona, Juan Manuel; Martínez Paredes, María

2013-01-01

Background and purpose: Characterization of radiotherapy activity and its trend over time. Gathering of parameters for future planning of our resources, applicable to similar population areas. Performing a clinical audit of appropriate use of radiotherapy. Material and methods: Analysis of 9782 patients treated between 1998 and 2008. Descriptive statistics of pathologies and social/demographic characteristics. Intention of treatment. The rate of radiotherapy utilization was estimated and compared with those considered optimal. Rate of reirradiation. Results: The average global rate of radiotherapy utilization for the period was 32.7%. It increased by 23% between 1998 and 2008, while the population of the area rose by 1.04%, equaling an average 1.13 irradiations/1000 inhabitants/year. Radiation treatment has increased by 13.6, 2.3, 1.6 and 1.06 times in patients with prostate, breast, rectal and lung cancer, respectively. Eight percent of radiotherapy treatments involve concurrent chemotherapy. The proportion of treatments with palliative intent was 18.2%. The overall underutilization of radiation therapy in our environment was an estimated 13.4%. Conclusions: The grade of adequacy of radiation rates in relation with scientific evidence was globally considered suboptimal, especially in lung cancer. There was an upward trend of irradiation in breast and prostate cancer, tending toward rates considered optimal

Status and trends of U.S. pulpwood market.

Science.gov (United States)

Peter J. Ince

2009-01-01

Global trends in pulp, paper, and paperboard have deeply affected U.S. pulpwood markets since the late 1990s. Global trends included a shift of growth in paper and paperboard production from North America to Europe and Asia over the past decade. This trend was associated with generally slower growth in U.S. industrial production and displacement of growth in print...

The Winter Cooling Trend in Eastern China during the Recent Global Warming Hiatus Period and Its Possible Reason

Science.gov (United States)

Lei, T.; Li, S.; Luo, F.; Han, Z.

2017-12-01

The authors analyzed the observed winter surface air temperature in eastern mainland China during the recent global warming hiatus period through 1998-2013. The results suggest a substantial cooling trend of about -1.0°/decade in Eastern China, Northeast China and Southeast China. Mechanism exploration indicates that the displacement of the East Asian upper-tropospheric jet and the associated Rossby wave may have contributed to the cooling trend. A southward shift of the East Asian polar together with a northward shift of the subtropical jet caused the enhancement of the northern East Asian trough and Siberian High. A diagnostic analysis suggests that the Arctic sea ice loss, ENSO and North Atlantic SST all play a role. With the three factors removed, the air temperature trend is -0.35, -0.08 and -0.44°/decade over East China, Northeast China and Southeast China, respectively.

Trends and characteristics affecting disability among older Canadians living in private households

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guillaume Lefrançois

2013-10-01

Full Text Available As the first of the Boomers reach age 65 in 2011, it is of great interest to identify trends in disability to better predict future needs and resources within community care. This paper uses data from four national datasets to investigate trends in disability rates and examine socio-demographic characteristics associated with disability. Results show a decrease in the overall disability prevalence rate. However, no significant trend in levels of disability was identified for the period 1994/95–2000/01 when controlling for socio-demographic variables, suggesting stability in the probability of being disabled over time.

Migration Component in the Contemporary Demographic Development of Rijeka and the Coastal Area of Primorje-Gorski Kotar County

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivan Lajić

2012-08-01

Full Text Available The significance of migration in the contemporary demographic development of Rijeka and its coastal area is discussed in the paper. The analysis has shown that the City of Rijeka presents a demographically regressive area from which the deconcentration of population, mainly to suburban areas, is taking place. At the same time, the Littoral is the area of demographic growth as a result of high immigration rates, while natural demographic trends are negative; however, this does not have such intensity as in the case of the urban population of Rijeka. The comparison of vital index and migration data indicates a high degree of correlation between immigration and natural change in population so that settlements in the nearer gravitation area, being the space of strong in-migration between the 1990s and 2000s, shows distinct demographic growth and positive population bio-dynamics. Compared with them, settlements in the broader gravitational area have weaker intensity of permanent population resettlement as well as considerably unfavourable total and natural population trends. Based on the established demographic situation, population forecasts have been made for the years 2021 and 2031 indicating continued depopulation processes in the macro-regional centre of Rijeka and further demographic progression in the coastal area.

Global Lakes Sentinel Services: Evaluation of Chl-a Trends in Deep Clear Lakes

Science.gov (United States)

Cazzaniga, Ilaria; Giardino, Claudia; Bresciani, Mariano; Poser, Kathrin; Peters, Steef; Hommersom, Annelies; Schenk, Karin; Heege, Thomas; Philipson, Petra; Ruescas, Ana; Bottcher, Martin; Stelzer, Kerstin

2016-08-01

The aim of this study is the analysis of trend in the trophic level evolution in clear deep lakes which, being characterised by good quality state, are important socio- economic resources for their regions. The selected lakes are situated in Europe (Garda, Maggiore, Constance and Vättern), North America (Michigan) and Africa (Malawi and Tanganyika) and cover a range of eco- regions (continental, perialpine, boreal, rift valley) distributed globally.To evaluate trophic level tendency we mainly focused on chlorophyll-a concentrations (chl-a) which is a direct proxy of trophic status. The chl-a concentrations were obtained from 5216 cloud-free MERIS imagery from 2002 to 2012.The 'GLaSS RoIStats tool' available within the GLaSS project was used to extract chl-a in a number of region of interests (ROI) located in pelagic waters as well as some few other stations depending on lakes morphology. For producing the time-series trend, these extracted data were analysed with the Seasonal Kendall test.The results overall show almost stable conditions with a slight increase in concentration for lakes Maggiore, Constance, and the Green Bay of Lake Michigan; a slight decrease for lakes Garda and Tanganyika and absolutely stable conditions for lakes Vättern and Malawi.The results presented in this work show the great capability of MERIS to perform trend tests analysis on trophic status with focus on chl-a concentration. Being chl-a also a key parameter in water quality monitoring plans, this study also supports the managing practices implemented worldwide for using the water of the lakes.

Trends from 2002 to 2010 in Daily Breakfast Consumption and its Socio-Demographic Correlates in Adolescents across 31 Countries Participating in the HBSC Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lazzeri, Giacomo; Ahluwalia, Namanjeet; Niclasen, Birgit

2016-01-01

Breakfast is often considered the most important meal of the day and children and adolescents can benefit from breakfast consumption in several ways. The purpose of the present study was to describe trends in daily breakfast consumption (DBC) among adolescents across 31 countries participating...... adjusting for family affluence, family structure and year of survey. In all countries, children in two-parent families were more likely to report DBC compared to single parent families. In most countries (n = 19), DBC was associated with family affluence. Six countries showed an increase in DBC (Canada...... to motivate adolescents to consume DBC. Comparing patterns across HBSC countries can make an important contribution to understanding regional /global trends and to monitoring strategies and development of health promotion programs....

Key Trends in the Development of Foreign Trade of France in the Global Competitive Environment

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Zvirgzde Kateryna I.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article is aimed at analyzing the nature and contemporary trends of foreign trade activity of France. In the process of evolutionary development of the economy of France in content, structure and directions of its foreign trade strategies occurred permanent modifications and transformations, resulting from the need to maintain optimal proportions between material, financial and human resources, production and consumption, commodity supply and purchasing power, as well as receipts and payments in the settlements with other countries. The article is concerned with an integrated analysis of progressive structural reforms in the economic system of France in the last decade, which led to fundamental changes in its foreign trade operations both in terms of monetary magnitude of export-import transactions and their product-species, geographical, institutional and regulatory structures. The nature, key indicators, trends and issues in the foreign trade strategy of France in the face of global volatility as well as ways for its improvement have been researched.

Global Survey on Future Trends in Human Spaceflight: the Implications for Space Tourism

Science.gov (United States)

Gurtuna, O.; Garneau, S.

2002-01-01

With the much-publicized first ever space tourist flight, of Dennis Tito, and the announcement of the second space tourist flight to take place in April 2002, it is clear that an alternative motivation for human spaceflight has emerged. Human spaceflight is no longer only about meeting the priorities of national governments and space agencies, but is also about the tangible possibility of ordinary people seeing the Earth from a previously exclusive vantage point. It is imperative that major space players look beyond the existing human spaceflight rationale to identify some of the major driving forces behind space tourism, including the evolving market potential and developments in enabling technologies. In order to determine the influence of these forces on the future of commercial human spaceflight, the responses of a Futuraspace survey on future trends in human spaceflight are analyzed and presented. The motivation of this study is to identify sought-after space destinations, explore the expected trends in enabling technologies, and understand the future role of emerging space players. The survey will reflect the opinions of respondents from around the world including North America, Europe (including Russia) and Asia. The profiles of targeted respondents from space industry, government and academia are high-level executives/managers, senior researchers, as well as former and current astronauts. The survey instrument is a questionnaire which is validated by a pilot study. The sampling method is non-probabilistic, targeting as many space experts as possible who fit our intended respondent profile. Descriptive and comparative statistical analysis methods are implemented to investigate both global and regional perceptions of future commercial trends in human spaceflight. This study is not intended to be a formal market study of the potential viability of the space tourism market. Instead, the focus is on the future trends of human spaceflight, by drawing on the

Aging in France: Population Trends, Policy Issues, and Research Institutions

Science.gov (United States)

Beland, Daniel; Durandal, Jean-Philippe Viriot

2013-01-01

Like in other advanced industrial countries, in France, demographic aging has become a widely debated research and policy topic. This article offers a brief overview of major aging-related trends in France. The article describes France's demographics of aging, explores key policy matters, maps the institutional field of French social gerontology…

Brief Communication: Likelihood of societal preparedness for global change: trend detection

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R. M. Vogel

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Anthropogenic influences on earth system processes are now pervasive, resulting in trends in river discharge, pollution levels, ocean levels, precipitation, temperature, wind, landslides, bird and plant populations and a myriad of other important natural hazards relating to earth system state variables. Thousands of trend detection studies have been published which report the statistical significance of observed trends. Unfortunately, such studies only concentrate on the null hypothesis of "no trend". Little or no attention is given to the power of such statistical trend tests, which would quantify the likelihood that we might ignore a trend if it really existed. The probability of missing the trend, if it exists, known as the type II error, informs us about the likelihood of whether or not society is prepared to accommodate and respond to such trends. We describe how the power or probability of detecting a trend if it exists, depends critically on our ability to develop improved multivariate deterministic and statistical methods for predicting future trends in earth system processes. Several other research and policy implications for improving our understanding of trend detection and our societal response to those trends are discussed.

Constraining the carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) budget using its global trend and inter-hemispheric gradient

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Qing; Newman, Paul A.; Daniel, John S.; Reimann, Stefan; Hall, Bradley D.; Dutton, Geoff; Kuijpers, Lambert J. M.

2014-07-01

Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) is a major anthropogenic ozone-depleting substance and greenhouse gas and has been regulated under the Montreal Protocol. However, the near-zero 2007-2012 emissions estimate based on the UNEP reported production and feedstock usage cannot be reconciled with the observed slow decline of atmospheric concentrations and the inter-hemispheric gradient (IHG) for CCl4. Our 3-D model simulations suggest that the observed IHG (1.5 ± 0.2 ppt for 2000-2012) is primarily caused by ongoing current emissions, while ocean and soil losses and stratosphere-troposphere exchange together contribute a small negative gradient (~0 - -0.3 ppt). Using the observed CCl4 global trend and IHG, we deduce that the mean global emissions for the 2000-2012 period are 393445 Gg/yr (~30% of the peak 1980s emissions) and a corresponding total lifetime of 353732 years.

Exile and demographic population growth in Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stevanović Radoslav

2005-01-01

Full Text Available The data of the 2002 population census on refugee population are analyzed in this paper with a basic aim to determine the significance (contribution of refugee corpus in demographic development of the Republic of Serbia. By analyzing the data, it has been determined that the refugee corpus does not significantly differ from the domicile population in the basic, above all demographic and other qualitative characteristics. The differences which can be noticed with certain (primarily socio-economic characteristics, due to the proportionally small participation of refugee persons in relation to the total (domicile population, could not significantly influence the total demographic, socio-economic and other characteristics of the population of central Serbia and Vojvodina. The most significant contribution of refugee (classifying the refugee corpus in the country's total population is reflected in the mitigation of the depopulation trend, namely population growth, not only both micro-entities, but also lower administrative-territorial entities (districts depending on the enumerated refugee population in them. However, population projections indicate that by the middle of this century (2050 the positive effects of the basically larger number of inhabitants will be lost caused by the inflow of refugee population.

Epidemiologic contributions to recent cancer trends among HIV-infected people in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Robbins, Hilary A; Shiels, Meredith S; Pfeiffer, Ruth M; Engels, Eric A

2014-03-27

HIV-infected people have elevated risk for some cancers. Changing incidence of these cancers over time may reflect changes in three factors: HIV population demographic structure (e.g. age distribution), general population (background) cancer rates, and HIV-associated relative risks. We assessed the contributions of these factors to time trends for 10 cancers during 1996-2010. Population-based registry linkage study. We applied Poisson models to data from the U.S. HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study to estimate annual percentage changes (APCs) in incidence rates of AIDS-defining cancers [ADCs: Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), and cervical cancer] and seven non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADCs). We evaluated HIV-infected cancer trends with and without adjustment for demographics, trends in background rates, and trends in standardized incidence ratios (SIRs, to capture relative risk). Cancer rates among HIV-infected people rose over time for anal (APC 3.8%), liver (8.5%), and prostate (9.8%) cancers, but declined for Kaposi sarcoma (1996-2000: -29.3%; 2000-2010: -7.8%), NHL (1996-2003: -15.7%; 2003-2010: -5.5%), cervical cancer (-11.1%), Hodgkin lymphoma (-4.0%), and lung cancer (-2.8%). Breast and colorectal cancer incidence did not change over time. Based on comparison to adjusted models, changing demographics contributed to trends for Kaposi sarcoma and breast, colorectal, liver, lung, and prostate cancers (all P cancers. SIRs declined for ADCs, Hodgkin lymphoma (APC -3.2%), and lung cancer (-4.4%). Demographic shifts influenced several cancer trends among HIV-infected individuals. Falling relative risks largely explained ADC declines, while background incidence contributed to some NADC trends.

Global trends in critical values practices and their harmonization.

Science.gov (United States)

Kost, Gerald J; Hale, Kristin N

2011-02-01

The objectives of this article were 1) to identify current trends in critical values practices in North America, Europe, and other regions; 2) to describe progress toward harmonization of critical limits; and 3) to synthesize strategies that will encourage global consensus. Critical limits are described in national surveys. Critical value practices are guided by federal statutes, The Joint Commission regulations, and accreditation requirements in the US; by provincial healthcare agencies in Canada; by thought leaders and ISO EN 15189:2007 in Europe; and in SE Asia, mostly by ad hoc policies lacking statutory grip. Review of databases, literature, websites, federal statutes, litigation, official policies, current affairs, and accreditation agency requirements. Practical strategies will accelerate harmonization of critical values practices, as follows: a) continue national and international survey comparisons; b) clarify age, ethnic, and subject dependencies; c) standardize qualitative and quantitative decision levels for urgent clinician notification; d) monitor compliance and timeliness for safety; and e) alert high frequencies of critical values related to adverse events. New expectations and communication technologies present opportunities for enhanced performance using wireless closed-loop reporting with recipient acknowledgment to reduce phone calls and improve efficiency. Hospitals worldwide can benefit from developing consensus for critical values practices.

Global temperatures and the global warming ``debate''

Science.gov (United States)

Aubrecht, Gordon

2009-04-01

Many ordinary citizens listen to pronouncements on talk radio casting doubt on anthropogenic global warming. Some op-ed columnists likewise cast doubts, and are read by credulous citizens. For example, on 8 March 2009, the Boston Globe published a column by Jeff Jacoby, ``Where's global warming?'' According to Jacoby, ``But it isn't such hints of a planetary warming trend that have been piling up in profusion lately. Just the opposite.'' He goes on to write, ``the science of climate change is not nearly as important as the religion of climate change,'' and blamed Al Gore for getting his mistaken views accepted. George Will at the Washington Post also expressed denial. As a result, 44% of U.S. voters, according to the January 19 2009 Rasmussen Report, blame long-term planetary trends for global warming, not human beings. Is there global cooling, as skeptics claim? We examine the temperature record.

Partner relationships in the Netherlands: new manifestations of the Second Demographic Transition

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Latten, J.J.; Mulder, C.H.

2013-01-01

Partnership formation has rapidly and profoundly changed in theNetherlandssince the 1960s.Several scholars have placed these changes in the context of the Second Demographic Transition. We describe the main trends in the formation and dissolution of partnerships in theNetherlandsbetween the

Partner relationships in the Netherlands : New manifestations of the Second Demographic Transition

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Latten, Jan J.; Mulder, Clara H.

2013-01-01

Partnership formation has rapidly and profoundly changed in theNetherlandssince the 1960s.Several scholars have placed these changes in the context of the Second Demographic Transition. We describe the main trends in the formation and dissolution of partnerships in theNetherlandsbetween the

[Twenty-second conference of the Czechoslovak Demographic Society: "The Demographic Position of Czechoslovakia within Europe and the World"].

Science.gov (United States)

Fialova, L; Rychtarikova, J; Roubicek, V; Stloukal, L; Veres, P; Koschin, F; Novakova, B; Pavlik, Z

1992-01-01

This is a collection of short papers presented at a conference held in Prague, Czechoslovakia, in 1991. The focus of the conference was on the demographic changes that have occurred in Czechoslovakia since World War II and their relationship to such changes in the rest of Europe and elsewhere in the world. Essay topics include fertility trends; contraceptive prevalence, including abortion rates; living standards and health care; and changes in the age structure. Some data for selected countries are included for comparison. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)

Global contamination trends of persistent organic chemicals

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Loganathan, Bommanna G; Lam, Paul K. S

2012-01-01

"Composed by a diverse group of experts, this reference covers the history, present status, and projected future trends of environmental contamination from highly toxic synthetic chemical pollutants...

Nuclear energy development in the 21st century: Global scenarios and regional trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

The International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) was launched in 2000, on the basis of a resolution of the IAEA General Conference (GC(44)/RES/21). INPRO helps ensure that sustainable nuclear energy is available in the twenty-first century and seeks to bring together all interested Member States - both technology holders and technology users - to consider joint actions to achieve desired innovations. As of July 2010, 30 countries and the European Commission are members of INPRO. Programme Area B of INPRO, Global Vision - Scenarios and Pathways to Sustainable Nuclear Power Development, is aimed at providing a better understanding of the role of nuclear energy in the context of long term sustainable development. Its objective is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios on the basis of a scientific-technical pathway analysis that lead to a global vision on sustainable nuclear energy development in the twenty-first century, and to support Member States in working towards that vision. This report presents the results of a study undertaken under Programme Area B in INPRO on Nuclear Energy Development in the Twenty-first Century: Global Scenarios and Regional Trends Studies on Nuclear Capacity Growth and Material Flow between Regions. The report does not develop a global vision for nuclear deployment per se, but presents a limited set of technical scenarios of nuclear deployment and considers their implications. It considers a global energy supply system composed of several reactor and fuel cycle types available today and of fast reactors that may be developed in the future to illustrate a possible modelling approach to identify the potential role of interregional transfer of nuclear fuel resources in supporting the global growth of nuclear energy. The study was performed with the participation of sixteen experts from nine INPRO Member States and included a dynamic simulation of material flows in nuclear energy systems using

Demographic and Anthropometric Assessment of US Army Anthropometric Data Base

Science.gov (United States)

1985-08-01

suggest that any projections for future demographic characterizations for the Army should be based on Army data and policy alone, and not on trends...decade in adults. 33 .7.-a , ... ,5 ,.W *.1n LU) I--4 cncd Cc 0 U) 4- 34 Military surveys, which are generally conducted on subjects either at or near the

TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARKETING COMMUNICATIONS IN THE GLOBAL INTERACTIVE SPACE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Kochkina

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The article identifies trends in the development of marketing communications in the global interactive space by analyzing the factors of their functioning and researching motivation of viral audience. It is revealed the prevalence of interactive technologies in today's information space and the growth dynamics of interactive advertising market. It is proved that favorable conditions for marketing communications' functioning forms the basis for the development of viral advertising as an effective communication tool for untraditional impact on potential customers. The popularity of social networks as a major source of viral messages is determined. The motivation of YouTube audience, which provides a resonant video viewing and retransmission, is investigated. Gender and age differences that stipulate communication affect on consumers are identified. Cyclic social consciousness is observed that demands further research of viral audience, including constructing scenarios of viral behavior.

SHADOW GLOBALIZATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Larissa Mihaylovna Kapitsa

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The article reviews some development trends brought about by globalization, particularly, a growing tax evasion and tax avoidance, an expansion of illicit financial flows and the proliferation of a global criminal network. The author draws attention to some new phenomena, particularly, cosmopolitanization of some parts of national elites and a deepening divide between national interests and the private interests of elites as a consequence of financial globalization. Modern mass media, both Russian and foreign, tend to interpret globalization processes exclusively from the position of conformism, and for some of the researchers globalization became the "sacred cow", which one may only worship. Critical analysis of the processes associated with globalization is given a hostile reception. In response to criticism of globalization, one can hear the very same argument: "globalization in inevitable!" Such a state of affairs, the very least, causes perplexity. Some of the world development trends been observed over the past years raise serious concerns about the security and welfare of the peoples of the world. One of such trends has been the globalization of shadow economic activities. Methods of fight against the criminal economy been applied in international practice can be grouped into: 1 punitive enforcement (or criminal-legal methods and 2 socio-economic methods. As the results of various research works evidence punitive enforcement methods not supported by socio-economic measures not effective enough. Toughening the control over criminal economic activities in the absence of preventive and corrective actions aiming to neutralize institutional, social and other stimuli facilitating criminalization of economic activities can result in large losses of financial assets in the form of mass capital flight

Shadow Globalization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Larissa Mihaylovna Kapitsa

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The article reviews some development trends brought about by globalization, particularly, a growing tax evasion and tax avoidance, an expansion of illicit financial flows and the proliferation of a global criminal network. The author draws attention to some new phenomena, particularly, cosmopolitanization of some parts of national elites and a deepening divide between national interests and the private interests of elites as a consequence of financial globalization. Modern mass media, both Russian and foreign, tend to interpret globalization processes exclusively from the position of conformism, and for some of the researchers globalization became the "sacred cow", which one may only worship. Critical analysis of the processes associated with globalization is given a hostile reception. In response to criticism of globalization, one can hear the very same argument: "globalization in inevitable!" Such a state of affairs, the very least, causes perplexity. Some of the world development trends been observed over the past years raise serious concerns about the security and welfare of the peoples of the world. One of such trends has been the globalization of shadow economic activities. Methods of fight against the criminal economy been applied in international practice can be grouped into: 1 punitive enforcement (or criminal-legal methods and 2 socio-economic methods. As the results of various research works evidence punitive enforcement methods not supported by socio-economic measures not effective enough. Toughening the control over criminal economic activities in the absence of preventive and corrective actions aiming to neutralize institutional, social and other stimuli facilitating criminalization of economic activities can result in large losses of financial assets in the form of mass capital flight

Comparison of global observations and trends of total precipitable water derived from microwave radiometers and COSMIC radio occultation from 2006 to 2013

Science.gov (United States)

Ho, Shu-Peng; Peng, Liang; Mears, Carl; Anthes, Richard A.

2018-01-01

We compare atmospheric total precipitable water (TPW) derived from the SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) and SSMIS (Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder) radiometers and WindSat to collocated TPW estimates derived from COSMIC (Constellation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) radio occultation (RO) under clear and cloudy conditions over the oceans from June 2006 to December 2013. Results show that the mean microwave (MW) radiometer - COSMIC TPW differences range from 0.06 to 0.18 mm for clear skies, from 0.79 to 0.96 mm for cloudy skies, from 0.46 to 0.49 mm for cloudy but non-precipitating conditions, and from 1.64 to 1.88 mm for precipitating conditions. Because RO measurements are not significantly affected by clouds and precipitation, the biases mainly result from MW retrieval uncertainties under cloudy and precipitating conditions. All COSMIC and MW radiometers detect a positive TPW trend over these 8 years. The trend using all COSMIC observations collocated with MW pixels for this data set is 1.79 mm decade-1, with a 95 % confidence interval of (0.96, 2.63), which is in close agreement with the trend estimated by the collocated MW observations (1.78 mm decade-1 with a 95 % confidence interval of 0.94, 2.62). The sample of MW and RO pairs used in this study is highly biased toward middle latitudes (40-60° N and 40-65° S), and thus these trends are not representative of global average trends. However, they are representative of the latitudes of extratropical storm tracks and the trend values are approximately 4 to 6 times the global average trends, which are approximately 0.3 mm decade-1. In addition, the close agreement of these two trends from independent observations, which represent an increase in TPW in our data set of about 6.9 %, are a strong indication of the positive water vapor-temperature feedback on a warming planet in regions where precipitation from extratropical storms is already large.

Integration and disintegration processes of ethnic communities in a globalized world: challenges and trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. A. Paronikian

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The article examines the challenges and trends in integration and disintegration processes of ethnic communities in the world of globalization. Established that ethnic disintegration is inevitable consequence of ethnic integration, and its intensity depends on what method is carried Integration: voluntary or forced. What is important is the fact that in the era of globalization integration and disintegration processes of ethnic communities that are inherent in the very essence of ethnicity, greatly amplified. It was found that entering to the cultural field of ethnic communities of other ethnic entities, penalized sustainable ethnic balance, contributes to the phenomenon of «rejection of other» causes of ethnic conflict and the consequent threat of disintegration of ethnic communities. Disintegration often leads to weakening of the linkages and interactions between components of the integrated system in a multi-ethnic society. However, the author concludes that the process of disintegration cannot be regarded as unambiguously negative because, on the one hand, it contributes to the weakening and decline; and sometimes division of multi-ethnic countries, but on the other hand - it contributes to the birth of the new and revival of the old nation-states, which is particularly important in conditions of transformation of the global community towards the post-industrial and information epoch in the future. In general, the integration and disintegration change each other depending on global processes and their transformations. Therefore, in the era of globalization’s challenges it is important is the effective management of these processes to prevent adverse effects.

Global trends in teenage suicide: 2003-2014.

Science.gov (United States)

McLoughlin, A B; Gould, M S; Malone, K M

2015-10-01

The object of this article is to review the past decade of research on teenage suicide, with a particular emphasis on epidemiologic trends by age, gender and indigenous ethnicity. As such, a review of research literature from 2003 to 2014 was conducted via a comprehensive search of relevant psychological and medical databases. Wide gaps in our knowledge base exist concerning the true extent of teenage suicide due to lack of data, particularly in developing countries, resulting in a Western bias. The gender paradox of elevated suicidality in females with higher completed suicide rates in males is observed in teenage populations worldwide, with the notable exceptions of China and India. Native and indigenous ethnic minority teens are at significantly increased risk of suicide in comparison to general population peers. Often those with the highest need for mental health care (such as the suicidal adolescent) have least access to therapeutic support.Globally, suicide in teenagers remains a major public health concern. Further focused research concerning completed suicides of youth below the age of 18 is required across countries and cultures to understand more about risk as children progress through adolescence. Gender and ethnic variations in suicidality are embedded within cultural, historical, psychological, relational and socio-economic domains. Worldwide, the absence of child/adolescent-specific mental health policies may delay the development of care and suicide prevention. Overall, it is vital that clinicians adopt a holistic approach that incorporates an awareness of age and gender influences, and that cultural competency informs tailored and evaluated intervention programmes. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Association of Physicians. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Global trends on local grounds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Steensen, Jette Johanne

2006-01-01

Collection of papers produced by tutors involved in a master´s degree course for teacher in Ethiopia offers an important challenge to the dominant neo-liberal agenda that has taken over educational reform throughtout the world. The project was based on the practice of critical practitioner inquiry...... and built upon similar efforts in Namibia in the 1990s. Steensen´s contribution stresses that any educational system will have to lie firmly on local grounds, that international trends must be analysed strategically as well as critically and that such analysis, for example through Critical Practitioner...

Current Practice in Research Ethics: Global Trends and New Opportunities for African Universities. Research and Innovation Policy Series. Number 1

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, Liam

2007-01-01

Research Ethics has emerged as one of the most well-developed policy areas within the sphere of Research and Innovation Management. As such, for African institutions looking to strengthen their policy frameworks, develop increased collaborations, and increase research outputs, a thorough understanding of global trends in Ethics will be vital.…

Trends in the development of the Danish universities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sarauw, Laura Louise; Christiansen, Niels Frederik Voetmann; Harboe, Thomas

2015-01-01

The chapter outlines some important development trends in the way universities, globally as well as nationally in terms of organisation, research, education and teaching.......The chapter outlines some important development trends in the way universities, globally as well as nationally in terms of organisation, research, education and teaching....

Global Trends in Academic Governance

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Cummings, William K.; Finkelstein, Martin

2009-01-01

Even before the current global economic crisis, discontent with the governance of higher education institutions was widespread among faculty in the United States and throughout the world. Drawing from the 2007 Changing Academic Profession (CAP) survey of faculty in seventeen countries, the authors examine faculty perceptions of the current state…

Is the demographic dividend an education dividend?

Science.gov (United States)

Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús; Lutz, Wolfgang; Sanderson, Warren

2014-02-01

The effect of changes in age structure on economic growth has been widely studied in the demography and population economics literature. The beneficial effect of changes in age structure after a decrease in fertility has become known as the "demographic dividend." In this article, we reassess the empirical evidence on the associations among economic growth, changes in age structure, labor force participation, and educational attainment. Using a global panel of countries, we find that after the effect of human capital dynamics is controlled for, no evidence exists that changes in age structure affect labor productivity. Our results imply that improvements in educational attainment are the key to explaining productivity and income growth and that a substantial portion of the demographic dividend is an education dividend.

Trends and associated uncertainty in the global mean temperature record

Science.gov (United States)

Poppick, A. N.; Moyer, E. J.; Stein, M.

2016-12-01

Physical models suggest that the Earth's mean temperature warms in response to changing CO2 concentrations (and hence increased radiative forcing); given physical uncertainties in this relationship, the historical temperature record is a source of empirical information about global warming. A persistent thread in many analyses of the historical temperature record, however, is the reliance on methods that appear to deemphasize both physical and statistical assumptions. Examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for natural variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. We show here that methods that deemphasize assumptions can limit the scope of analysis and can lead to misleading inferences, particularly in the setting considered where the data record is relatively short and the scale of temporal correlation is relatively long. A proposed model that is simple but physically informed provides a more reliable estimate of trends and allows a broader array of questions to be addressed. In accounting for uncertainty, we also illustrate how parametric statistical models that are attuned to the important characteristics of natural variability can be more reliable than ostensibly more flexible approaches.

CORPORATE COMMUNICATION BIASES IN THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT UNDER GLOBALIZATION TRENDS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ramona-Elena, Chiţu

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The development of the private sector, employers’ requirements of specific communication skills, the economic field division into numberless branches of activity – finance and banks, management, human resources, accounting, international relations, tourism – the presence of a certain literature in the field by means of translations, all such aspects represent grounded reasons for the existence of a global economic vocabulary in the Romanian language. Finding its origins in the structuralism philosophic principles and associated with the structuralism linguistic trends, economic language’s globalisation becomes obvious nowadays through the occurrence of a large number of linguistic borrowings. Classified into either needless or necessary borrowed lexical units, lexical units borrowed and completely or at all assimilated in the target language, such borrowings lay the foundation of what specialists in the field call corporate language. Considering that the total or partial lack of knowledge on such language can become a real barrier in achieving communication, this study aims at analysing the level to which such words are known by the employees in the business environments involved in economic international partnerships and in multinational organisations.

The Future at Work. An Assessment of Changing Workplace Trends.

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Interstate Conference of Employment Security Agencies, Inc., Washington, DC.

Technological and demographic changes affect the nation's employment landscape. The most consistent trend of the century has been the shrinking workweek. By the year 2000, many workers will spend only 32 hours per week at work. Other workplace changes will continue the quest for more work satisfaction: technical trends (flextime/telecommuting);…

Proceedings of the 2015 international summit on fibropapillomatosis: Global status, trends, and population impacts

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Hargrove, Stacy A.; Work, Thierry M.; Brunson, Shandell; Foley, Allen M.; Balazs, George H.

2016-01-01

The 2015 International Summit on Fibropapillomatosis (FP) was convened in Honolulu, Hawaii June 11-14, 2015. Scientists from around the world were invited to present results from sea turtle monitoring and research programs as they relate to the global status, trends, and population impacts of FP on green turtles. The participants engaged in discussions that resulted in the following conclusions: 1.Globally, FP has long been present in wild sea turtle populations the earliest mention was in the late 1800s in the Florida Keys. 2.FP primarily affects medium-sized immature turtles in coastal foraging pastures. 3.Expression of FP differs across ocean basins and to some degree within basins. Turtles in the Southeast US, Caribbean, Brazil, and Australia rarely have oral tumors (inside the mouth cavity), whereas they are common and often severe in Hawaii. Internal tumors (on vital organs) occur in the Atlantic and Hawaii, but only rarely in Australia. Liver tumors are common in Florida but not in Hawaii. 4.Recovery from FP through natural processes, when the affliction is not severe, has been documented in wild populations globally. 5.FP causes reduced survivorship, but documented mortality rates in Australia and Hawaii are low. The mortality impact of FP is not currently exceeding population growth rates in some intensively monitored populations (e.g., Florida, Hawaii) as evidenced by increasing nesting trends despite the incidence of FP in immature foraging populations. 6.Pathogens, hosts, and potential disease and environmental cofactors have the capacity to change; while we are having success now, there needs to be continued monitoring to detect changes in the distribution, occurrence, and severity of the disease. 7.While we do not have clear evidence to provide the direct link, globally, the preponderance of sites with a high frequency of FP tumors are areas with some degree of degradation resulting from altered watersheds. Watershed management and responsible coastal

Policy Implications of the Next World Demographic Transition

OpenAIRE

Harbison, Sarah F.; Robinson, Warren C.

2002-01-01

Although the world demographic transition from high to low fertility appears to be nearing its completion, observed in perspective, this is the latest in a series of such transitions stretching back into prehistory. A stable new equilibrium is far from inevitable; indeed, it is unlikely. Many countries are experiencing below‐replacement‐level fertility, and this trend is spreading. Couples are now able to choose their family size, free of the traditional pressures to bear children that was ch...

THE EFFECT OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC EVOLUTION OF THE RURAL AND URBAN ENVIROMENT IN ROMANIA

OpenAIRE

Silvia Marginean

2008-01-01

The problem of population as we are used to call it belongs to different areas of interest for scientists of different fields for quite some time. The never ending growth of population has turned global. Threats generated by the population's evolution for economic, social or eco systems can be analyzed in two distinct ways: overpopulation and demographic growth in developing countries and aging demographics in developed countries. With a negative demographic evolution during the 20th century,...

Demographic trends among older cannabis users in the United States, 2006–13

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Han, Benjamin H.; Sherman, Scott; Mauro, Pia M.; Martins, Silvia S.; Rotenberg, James; Palamar, Joseph J.

2017-01-01

Background and Aims The ageing US population is providing an unprecedented population of older adults who use recreational drugs. We aimed to estimate the trends in the prevalence of past-year use of cannabis, describe the patterns and attitudes and determine correlates of cannabis use by adults age 50 years and older. Design Secondary analysis of the National Survey on Drug Use and Health survey from 2006 to 2013, a cross-sectional survey given to a nationally representative probability sample of populations living in US households. Setting USA. Participants A total of 47 140 survey respondents aged ≥ 50 years. Measures Estimates and trends of past-year use of cannabis. Findings The prevalence of past-year cannabis use among adults aged ≥ 50 increased significantly from 2006/07 to 2012/13, with a 57.8% relative increase for adults aged 50–64 (linear trend P aged ≥ 65 (linear trend P = 0.002). When combining data from 2006 to 2013, 6.9% of older cannabis users met criteria for cannabis abuse or dependence, and the majority of the sample reported perceiving no risk or slight risk associated with monthly cannabis use (85.3%) or weekly use (79%). Past-year users were more likely to be younger, male, non-Hispanic, not have multiple chronic conditions and use tobacco, alcohol or other drugs compared with non-past-year cannabis users. Conclusions The prevalence of cannabis use has increased significantly in recent years among US adults aged ≥ 50 years. PMID:27767235

Students from Australian Universities Studying Abroad: A Demographic Profile

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Nerlich, Steve

2015-01-01

Australia is one of many countries to encourage its students to study abroad and hence develop a global perspective. Traditionally, students who have pursued this option represented a relatively privileged and demographically narrow group. More recently, governments and other agencies have been offering funding support with the aim of…

Sea level trends in Southeast Asian seas

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Strassburg, M. W.; Hamlington, B. D.; Leben, R. R.; Manurung, P.; Lumban Gaol, J.; Nababan, B.; Vignudelli, S.; Kim, K.-Y.

2015-05-01

Southeast Asian seas span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian oceans. The Southeast Asian sea regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost 2 decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17-year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement with decadal variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and related fluctuations of trade winds in the region. The Southeast Asian sea region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically over the studied time period. This historical variation suggests that the strong regional sea level trends observed during the modern satellite altimeter record will abate as trade winds fluctuate on decadal and longer timescales. Furthermore, after removing the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to sea level trends in the past 20 years, the rate of sea level rise is greatly reduced in the Southeast Asian sea region. As a result of the influence of the PDO, the Southeast Asian sea regional sea level trends during the 2010s and 2020s are likely to be less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) trend if the observed oscillations in wind forcing and sea level persist. Nevertheless, long-term sea level trends in the Southeast Asian seas will continue to be affected by GMSL rise occurring now and in the future.

Global patterns and trends in stomach cancer incidence: Age, period and birth cohort analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Ganfeng; Zhang, Yanting; Guo, Pi; Wang, Li; Huang, Yuanwei; Li, Ke

2017-10-01

The cases of stomach cancer (SC) incidence are increasing per year and the SC burden has remained very high in some countries. We aimed to evaluate the global geographical variation in SC incidence and temporal trends from 1978 to 2007, with an emphasis on the effect of birth cohort. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort model were applied. From 2003 to 2007, male rate were 1.5- to 3-fold higher than female in all countries. Rates were highest in Eastern Asian and South American countries. Except for Uganda, all countries showed favorable trends. Pronounced cohort-specific increases in risk for recent birth cohorts were seen in Brazil, Colombia, Iceland, New Zealand, Norway, Uganda and US white people for males and in Australia, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Ecuador, Iceland, India, Malta, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Uganda, US black and white people for females. The cohort-specific ratio for male significantly decreased in Japan, Malta and Spain for cohorts born since 1950 and in Austria, China, Croatia, Ecuador, Russia, Switzerland and Thailand for cohorts born since 1960 and for female in Japan for cohorts born since 1950 and in Canada, China, Croatia, Latvia, Russia and Thailand for cohorts born since 1960. Disparities in incidence and carcinogenic risk persist worldwide. The favorable trends may be due to changes in environmental exposure and lifestyle, including decreased Helicobacter pylori prevalence, increased intake of fresh fruits and vegetables, the availability of refrigeration and decreased intake of salted and preserved food and smoking prevalence. © 2017 UICC.

Socio-demographic predictors and average annual rates of caesarean section in Bangladesh between 2004 and 2014.

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Md Nuruzzaman Khan

Full Text Available Globally the rates of caesarean section (CS have steadily increased in recent decades. This rise is not fully accounted for by increases in clinical factors which indicate the need for CS. We investigated the socio-demographic predictors of CS and the average annual rates of CS in Bangladesh between 2004 and 2014.Data were derived from four waves of nationally representative Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS conducted between 2004 and 2014. Rate of change analysis was used to calculate the average annual rate of increase in CS from 2004 to 2014, by socio-demographic categories. Multi-level logistic regression was used to identify the socio-demographic predictors of CS in a cross-sectional analysis of the 2014 BDHS data.CS rates increased from 3.5% in 2004 to 23% in 2014. The average annual rate of increase in CS was higher among women of advanced maternal age (≥35 years, urban areas, and relatively high socio-economic status; with higher education, and who regularly accessed antenatal services. The multi-level logistic regression model indicated that lower (≤19 and advanced maternal age (≥35, urban location, relatively high socio-economic status, higher education, birth of few children (≤2, antenatal healthcare visits, overweight or obese were the key factors associated with increased utilization of CS. Underweight was a protective factor for CS.The use of CS has increased considerably in Bangladesh over the survey years. This rising trend and the risk of having CS vary significantly across regions and socio-economic status. Very high use of CS among women of relatively high socio-economic status and substantial urban-rural difference call for public awareness and practice guideline enforcement aimed at optimizing the use of CS.

Socio-demographic predictors and average annual rates of caesarean section in Bangladesh between 2004 and 2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Md Nuruzzaman; Islam, M Mofizul; Shariff, Asma Ahmad; Alam, Md Mahmudul; Rahman, Md Mostafizur

2017-01-01

Globally the rates of caesarean section (CS) have steadily increased in recent decades. This rise is not fully accounted for by increases in clinical factors which indicate the need for CS. We investigated the socio-demographic predictors of CS and the average annual rates of CS in Bangladesh between 2004 and 2014. Data were derived from four waves of nationally representative Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) conducted between 2004 and 2014. Rate of change analysis was used to calculate the average annual rate of increase in CS from 2004 to 2014, by socio-demographic categories. Multi-level logistic regression was used to identify the socio-demographic predictors of CS in a cross-sectional analysis of the 2014 BDHS data. CS rates increased from 3.5% in 2004 to 23% in 2014. The average annual rate of increase in CS was higher among women of advanced maternal age (≥35 years), urban areas, and relatively high socio-economic status; with higher education, and who regularly accessed antenatal services. The multi-level logistic regression model indicated that lower (≤19) and advanced maternal age (≥35), urban location, relatively high socio-economic status, higher education, birth of few children (≤2), antenatal healthcare visits, overweight or obese were the key factors associated with increased utilization of CS. Underweight was a protective factor for CS. The use of CS has increased considerably in Bangladesh over the survey years. This rising trend and the risk of having CS vary significantly across regions and socio-economic status. Very high use of CS among women of relatively high socio-economic status and substantial urban-rural difference call for public awareness and practice guideline enforcement aimed at optimizing the use of CS.

Global Trends in Life Expectancy: A Club Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ulla Lehmijoki

2009-01-01

Excluding the HIV prevalence rate from the threshold candidates re-allocates a considerable number of the members of the High AIDS club, indicating that incomes, literacy, and fertility are unable to predict AIDS completely. The similarity of economic and demographic conditions in the Low Literacy and High AIDS clubs, however, raises concerns about life expectancy convergence in the future.

Driving forces: Motor vehicle trends and their implications for global warming, energy strategies, and transportation planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacKenzie, J.J.; Walsh, M.P.

1990-01-01

Cars, trucks, and other vehicles have long been linked to smog and other urban pollution, but the part they play in the larger complex of atmospheric and energy ills that we now face is often overlooked. In Driving Forces: Motor Vehicle Trends and Their Implications for Global Warming, Energy Strategies, and Transportation Planning, James J. MacKenzie, senior associate in World Resources Institute's Program in Climate, Energy, and Pollution, and Michael P. Walsh, an international consultant on transportation and environmental issues, fill in this knowledge gap with new data and analyses. They spell out four policy shifts that can help hold the line on global warming: improve new-vehicle efficiency; make transportation more efficient; cut other greenhouse gas emissions; create the green car of the future. The report focuses especially on the US, which pioneered the automotive revolution and leads the world in oil imports and emissions

Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study.

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Adebayo, Gbenga; Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Levine, Hagai

2017-01-01

We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; ponline trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R 2 =0.345; ponline trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.

Geographic trends in research output and citations in veterinary medicine: insight into global research capacity, species specialization, and interdisciplinary relationships

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

in most other regions and countries. Conclusions Bibliographic data reflect the demographic changes affecting veterinary medicine worldwide and provide insight into current and changing global research capacity, specialization, and interdisciplinary affiliations. A more detailed analysis of species-specific trends is warranted and could contribute to a better understanding of educational and workforce needs in veterinary medicine. PMID:23758872

Global trends in the awareness of sepsis: insights from search engine data between 2012 and 2017.

Science.gov (United States)

Jabaley, Craig S; Blum, James M; Groff, Robert F; O'Reilly-Shah, Vikas N

2018-01-17

Sepsis is an established global health priority with high mortality that can be curtailed through early recognition and intervention; as such, efforts to raise awareness are potentially impactful and increasingly common. We sought to characterize trends in the awareness of sepsis by examining temporal, geographic, and other changes in search engine utilization for sepsis information-seeking online. Using time series analyses and mixed descriptive methods, we retrospectively analyzed publicly available global usage data reported by Google Trends (Google, Palo Alto, CA, USA) concerning web searches for the topic of sepsis between 24 June 2012 and 24 June 2017. Google Trends reports aggregated and de-identified usage data for its search products, including interest over time, interest by region, and details concerning the popularity of related queries where applicable. Outlying epochs of search activity were identified using autoregressive integrated moving average modeling with transfer functions. We then identified awareness campaigns and news media coverage that correlated with epochs of significantly heightened search activity. A second-order autoregressive model with transfer functions was specified following preliminary outlier analysis. Nineteen significant outlying epochs above the modeled baseline were identified in the final analysis that correlated with 14 awareness and news media events. Our model demonstrated that the baseline level of search activity increased in a nonlinear fashion. A recurrent cyclic increase in search volume beginning in 2012 was observed that correlates with World Sepsis Day. Numerous other awareness and media events were correlated with outlying epochs. The average worldwide search volume for sepsis was less than that of influenza, myocardial infarction, and stroke. Analyzing aggregate search engine utilization data has promise as a mechanism to measure the impact of awareness efforts. Heightened information-seeking about sepsis

Links that speak: the global language network and its association with global fame.

Science.gov (United States)

Ronen, Shahar; Gonçalves, Bruno; Hu, Kevin Z; Vespignani, Alessandro; Pinker, Steven; Hidalgo, César A

2014-12-30

Languages vary enormously in global importance because of historical, demographic, political, and technological forces. However, beyond simple measures of population and economic power, there has been no rigorous quantitative way to define the global influence of languages. Here we use the structure of the networks connecting multilingual speakers and translated texts, as expressed in book translations, multiple language editions of Wikipedia, and Twitter, to provide a concept of language importance that goes beyond simple economic or demographic measures. We find that the structure of these three global language networks (GLNs) is centered on English as a global hub and around a handful of intermediate hub languages, which include Spanish, German, French, Russian, Portuguese, and Chinese. We validate the measure of a language's centrality in the three GLNs by showing that it exhibits a strong correlation with two independent measures of the number of famous people born in the countries associated with that language. These results suggest that the position of a language in the GLN contributes to the visibility of its speakers and the global popularity of the cultural content they produce.

M-business as a global trend

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stojanović Zvezdan

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Due to the great advances in infrastructure and software, due to the huge capital invested in their development, and due to increasing demands for mobility customers and operations in real time, mobile networks are in a growing mode. According to relevant survey, the number of mobile subscribers in the global level has almost reached the total population of the Earth. There are predictions that in developed countries with a large number of Internet subscribers, subscribers who access the Internet via mobile devices very soon will exceed the number of subscribers that access the Internet through personal computers. Leadings world companies must deploy mobile business and build mobile strategy in order to remain cempetative in global market.

Demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions: are they relevant to population health patterns in Africa?

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Kuate Defo, Barthélémy

2014-01-01

Studies of trends in population changes and epidemiological profiles in the developing world have overwhelmingly relied upon the concepts of demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions, even though their usefulness in describing and understanding population and health trends in developing countries has been repeatedly called into question. The issue is particularly relevant for the study of population health patterns in Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, as the history and experience there differs substantially from that of Western Europe and North America, for which these concepts were originally developed. The aim of this study is two-fold: to review and clarify any distinction between the concepts of demographic transition, epidemiological transition and health transition and to identify summary indicators of population health to test how well these concepts apply in Africa. Notwithstanding the characteristically diverse African context, Africa is a continent of uncertainties and emergencies where discontinuities and interruptions of health, disease, and mortality trends reflect the enduring fragility and instability of countries and the vulnerabilities of individuals and populations in the continent. Africa as a whole remains the furthest behind the world's regions in terms of health improvements and longevity, as do its sub-Saharan African regions and societies specifically. This study documents: 1) theoretically and empirically the similarities and differences between the demographic transition, epidemiological transition, and health transition; 2) simple summary indicators that can be used to evaluate their descriptive and predictive features; 3) marked disparities in the onset and pace of variations and divergent trends in health, disease, and mortality patterns as well as fertility and life expectancy trajectories among African countries and regions over the past 60 years; 4) the rapid decline in infant mortality and gains in life expectancy from the

Digital Revolution and Innovative Business Models in Healthcare: Global Trends and Russian Realities.

Science.gov (United States)

Bereznoy, A V; Saygitov, R T

Digital revolution is one of the major global trends resulting in the unprecedented scale and depth of penetration of information and communication technologies into all sectors of national economy, including healthcare. The development of this trend brought about high expectations related to the improvement of quality of medical assistance, accessibility and economic efficiency of healthcare services. However, euphoria of the first steps of digital revolution is passing now, opening doors to more realistic analysis of opportunities and conditions of realization of the true potential hidden in the digital transformation of healthcare. More balanced perception of the peculiarities of innovation processes in the sector is coming together with understanding of the serious barriers, hampering implementation of the new ideas and practices due to complicated interweaving of social, economic, ethical and psychological factors. When taking into account the industry specifics it becomes evident that digital revolution cannot be a quick turnaround but rather would pass a number of phases and is likely to last more than one decade. In this context the article focuses on the prospects of the new business models, capable of making significant changes in today’s economic landscape of the sector (including uber-medicine, retail clinics, retainer medicine, network models of medical services). The authors also provide assessment of the current situation and perspectives of digital healthcare development in Russia.

Emerging Global Trends in Advanced Manufacturing

Science.gov (United States)

2012-03-01

facility. Such distributed manufacturing could be made accessible to large masses even in remote areas (Ehmann 2011). For example, Zara is a Spanish...consumers. It has tightened its supply-chain management so that the consumer “pulls” the design. Zara uses state-of-the-art IT and distribution...systems to collect data daily on trends so they can quickly turn out new designs. Zara keeps costs down by using existing materials in stock and through

Current Trends in Retirement: Implications for Career Counseling and Vocational Psychology

Science.gov (United States)

Lytle, Megan C.; Clancy, Megan E.; Foley, Pamela F.; Cotter, Elizabeth W.

2015-01-01

This article provides an overview of emerging trends in retirement, examines demographic trends in the labor force, and provides practical recommendations for working with older workers across cultures (e.g., women and racial/ethnic minorities, and among others). Increasingly, older workers in the United States remain in the workforce for reasons…

Comparing the Global Charcoal Database with Burned Area Trends from an Offline Fire Model Driven by the NCAR Last Millennium Ensemble

Science.gov (United States)

Schaefer, A.; Magi, B. I.; Marlon, J. R.; Bartlein, P. J.

2017-12-01

This study uses an offline fire model driven by output from the NCAR Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) to evaluate how climate, ecological, and human factors contributed to burned area over the past millennium, and uses the Global Charcoal Database (GCD) record of fire activity as a constraint. The offline fire model is similar to the fire module within the NCAR Community Land Model. The LME experiment includes 13 simulations of the Earth system from 850 CE through 2005 CE, and the fire model simulates burned area using LME climate and vegetation with imposed land use and land cover change. The fire model trends are compared to GCD records of charcoal accumulation rates derived from sediment cores. The comparisons are a way to assess the skill of the fire model, but also set up a methodology to directly test hypotheses of the main drivers of fire patterns over the past millennium. The focus is on regions selected from the GCD with high data density, and that have lake sediment cores that best capture the last millennium. Preliminary results are based on a fire model which excludes burning cropland and pasture land cover types, but this allows some assessment of how climate variability is captured by the fire model. Generally, there is good agreement between modeled burned area trends and fire trends from GCD for many regions of interest, suggesting the strength of climate variability as a control. At the global scale, trends and features are similar from 850 to 1700, which includes the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. After 1700, the trends significantly deviate, which may be due to non-cultivated land being converted to cultivated. In key regions of high data density in the GCD such as the Western USA, the trends agree from 850 to 1200 but diverge from 1200 to 1300. From 1300 to 1800, the trends show good agreement again. Implementing processes to include burning cultivated land within the fire model is anticipated to

Global mobility orientation and the success of self-initiated expatriates in greater China

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lauring, Jakob; Selmer, Jan

2014-01-01

We investigated 640 self-initiated expatriate academics residing in Greater China. We examined whether their inherent demographic characteristics (age/gender) and acquired demographic characteristics (marital status/seniority) differentiated their work outcomes regarding job adjustment, time...... to proficiency, performance and satisfaction. We also explored the associations between global mobility orientation and these four work outcomes and examined to what extent the demographic characteristics differentiated the relationships. Results support most hypothesized differences. We found that a global...... mobility orientation was associated with all the work outcomes, except satisfaction. For inherent demographic characteristics, we found support for our hypotheses that for individuals with less successful demographics (younger, male), there was a stronger relationship between global mobility orientation...

Future Challenges for the Arab World: The Implications of Demographic and Economic Trends

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

online database service provides one of the most-consistent, all-encompassing sources of demographic data and forecasts available. Figure 2.1 Population... retail trade and construction. When oil prices are high, retail trade and construction boom; when they are low, output falls, pulling down aggregate GDP...Brazil, California, Malaysia , Mexico—have successfully used revenues from natural resources for public investments in education and infrastructure

Spatial and Temporal Trends in Global Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides from 1960 to 2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Tianbo; Zhu, Xi; Zhong, Qirui; Yun, Xiao; Meng, Wenjun; Li, Bengang; Ma, Jianmin; Zeng, Eddy Y; Tao, Shu

2017-07-18

The quantification of nitrogen oxide (NO x ) emissions is critical for air quality modeling. Based on updated fuel consumption and emission factor databases, a global emission inventory was compiled with high spatial (0.1° × 0.1°), temporal (monthly), and source (87 sources) resolutions for the period 1960 to 2014. The monthly emission data have been uploaded online ( http://inventory.pku.edu.cn ), along with a number of other air pollutant and greenhouse gas data for free download. Differences in source profiles, not global total quantities, between our results and those reported previously were found. There were significant differences in total and per capita emissions and emission intensities among countries, especially between the developing and developed countries. Globally, the total annual NO x emissions finally stopped increasing in 2013 after continuously increasing over several decades, largely due to strict control measures taken in China in recent years. Nevertheless, the peak year of NO x emissions was later than for many other major air pollutants. Per capita emissions, either among countries or over years, follow typical inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets curves, indicating that the emissions increased during the early stage of development and were restrained when socioeconomic development reached certain points. Although the trends are similar among countries, the turning points of developing countries appeared sooner than those of developed countries in terms of development status, confirming late-move advantages.

Comparison of global observations and trends of total precipitable water derived from microwave radiometers and COSMIC radio occultation from 2006 to 2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S.-P. Ho

2018-01-01

Full Text Available We compare atmospheric total precipitable water (TPW derived from the SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager and SSMIS (Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder radiometers and WindSat to collocated TPW estimates derived from COSMIC (Constellation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate radio occultation (RO under clear and cloudy conditions over the oceans from June 2006 to December 2013. Results show that the mean microwave (MW radiometer – COSMIC TPW differences range from 0.06 to 0.18 mm for clear skies, from 0.79 to 0.96 mm for cloudy skies, from 0.46 to 0.49 mm for cloudy but non-precipitating conditions, and from 1.64 to 1.88 mm for precipitating conditions. Because RO measurements are not significantly affected by clouds and precipitation, the biases mainly result from MW retrieval uncertainties under cloudy and precipitating conditions. All COSMIC and MW radiometers detect a positive TPW trend over these 8 years. The trend using all COSMIC observations collocated with MW pixels for this data set is 1.79 mm decade−1, with a 95 % confidence interval of (0.96, 2.63, which is in close agreement with the trend estimated by the collocated MW observations (1.78 mm decade−1 with a 95 % confidence interval of 0.94, 2.62. The sample of MW and RO pairs used in this study is highly biased toward middle latitudes (40–60° N and 40–65° S, and thus these trends are not representative of global average trends. However, they are representative of the latitudes of extratropical storm tracks and the trend values are approximately 4 to 6 times the global average trends, which are approximately 0.3 mm decade−1. In addition, the close agreement of these two trends from independent observations, which represent an increase in TPW in our data set of about 6.9 %, are a strong indication of the positive water vapor–temperature feedback on a warming planet in regions where precipitation from extratropical

The neolithic demographic transition in Europe: correlation with juvenility index supports interpretation of the summed calibrated radiocarbon date probability distribution (SCDPD as a valid demographic proxy.

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Sean S Downey

Full Text Available Analysis of the proportion of immature skeletons recovered from European prehistoric cemeteries has shown that the transition to agriculture after 9000 BP triggered a long-term increase in human fertility. Here we compare the largest analysis of European cemeteries to date with an independent line of evidence, the summed calibrated date probability distribution of radiocarbon dates (SCDPD from archaeological sites. Our cemetery reanalysis confirms increased growth rates after the introduction of agriculture; the radiocarbon analysis also shows this pattern, and a significant correlation between both lines of evidence confirms the demographic validity of SCDPDs. We analyze the areal extent of Neolithic enclosures and demographic data from ethnographically known farming and foraging societies and we estimate differences in population levels at individual sites. We find little effect on the overall shape and precision of the SCDPD and we observe a small increase in the correlation with the cemetery trends. The SCDPD analysis supports the hypothesis that the transition to agriculture dramatically increased demographic growth, but it was followed within centuries by a general pattern of collapse even after accounting for higher settlement densities during the Neolithic. The study supports the unique contribution of SCDPDs as a valid demographic proxy for the demographic patterns associated with early agriculture.

Demographic epidemiology of unstable pelvic fracture in the United States from 2000 to 2009: trends and in-hospital mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Yoshihara, Hiroyuki; Yoneoka, Daisuke

2014-02-01

Unstable pelvic fracture is predominantly caused by high-energy blunt trauma and is associated with a high risk of mortality. The epidemiology in the United States is largely unknown. The purpose of this study was to examine the epidemiology of unstable pelvic fracture based on patient and hospital demographics in the United States during the last decade. The Nationwide Inpatient Sample was used to identify patients who were hospitalized with unstable pelvic fracture from 2000 to 2009, using the International Classification of Diseases--9th Rev.--Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) codes. The primary outcome parameter consisted of analyzing the temporal trends of in-hospital admissions for unstable pelvic fracture and the associated in-hospital mortality. The data were stratified by demographic variables, including age, sex, race, and hospital region in the United States. From 2000 to 2009, there were 24,059 patients in total; among these, 1,823 (7.6%) had open fractures, and 22,236 (92.4%) had closed fractures. The population growth-adjusted incidence was stable over time (p = 0.431). The incidence was the lowest in the northeastern region. The in-hospital mortality rate in patients with unstable pelvic fracture was 8.3% (21.3% for open fracture, 7.2% for closed fracture) and remained stable over time (p = 0.089). The in-hospital mortality rate was higher in several subgroups of patients, such as older patients, male patients, African-American patients, and patients in the northeastern region. During the last decade, the incidence of unstable pelvic fracture has remained stable over time in the United States. The in-hospital mortality rate in patients with unstable pelvic fracture was 8.3% and remained stable over time. The rate in patients with an open fracture was approximately three times higher than that in patients with a closed fracture. The incidence was the lowest, but the in-hospital mortality rate was the highest in the northeastern region compared with the

Current demographics suggest future energy supplies will be inadequate to slow human population growth.

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John P DeLong

Full Text Available Influential demographic projections suggest that the global human population will stabilize at about 9-10 billion people by mid-century. These projections rest on two fundamental assumptions. The first is that the energy needed to fuel development and the associated decline in fertility will keep pace with energy demand far into the future. The second is that the demographic transition is irreversible such that once countries start down the path to lower fertility they cannot reverse to higher fertility. Both of these assumptions are problematic and may have an effect on population projections. Here we examine these assumptions explicitly. Specifically, given the theoretical and empirical relation between energy-use and population growth rates, we ask how the availability of energy is likely to affect population growth through 2050. Using a cross-country data set, we show that human population growth rates are negatively related to per-capita energy consumption, with zero growth occurring at ∼13 kW, suggesting that the global human population will stop growing only if individuals have access to this amount of power. Further, we find that current projected future energy supply rates are far below the supply needed to fuel a global demographic transition to zero growth, suggesting that the predicted leveling-off of the global population by mid-century is unlikely to occur, in the absence of a transition to an alternative energy source. Direct consideration of the energetic constraints underlying the demographic transition results in a qualitatively different population projection than produced when the energetic constraints are ignored. We suggest that energetic constraints be incorporated into future population projections.

Current demographics suggest future energy supplies will be inadequate to slow human population growth.

Science.gov (United States)

DeLong, John P; Burger, Oskar; Hamilton, Marcus J

2010-10-05

Influential demographic projections suggest that the global human population will stabilize at about 9-10 billion people by mid-century. These projections rest on two fundamental assumptions. The first is that the energy needed to fuel development and the associated decline in fertility will keep pace with energy demand far into the future. The second is that the demographic transition is irreversible such that once countries start down the path to lower fertility they cannot reverse to higher fertility. Both of these assumptions are problematic and may have an effect on population projections. Here we examine these assumptions explicitly. Specifically, given the theoretical and empirical relation between energy-use and population growth rates, we ask how the availability of energy is likely to affect population growth through 2050. Using a cross-country data set, we show that human population growth rates are negatively related to per-capita energy consumption, with zero growth occurring at ∼13 kW, suggesting that the global human population will stop growing only if individuals have access to this amount of power. Further, we find that current projected future energy supply rates are far below the supply needed to fuel a global demographic transition to zero growth, suggesting that the predicted leveling-off of the global population by mid-century is unlikely to occur, in the absence of a transition to an alternative energy source. Direct consideration of the energetic constraints underlying the demographic transition results in a qualitatively different population projection than produced when the energetic constraints are ignored. We suggest that energetic constraints be incorporated into future population projections.

Mortality-fertility synergies during the demographic transition in the developed world.

Science.gov (United States)

Sánchez-Barricarte, Jesús J

2017-07-01

The classic theory used to explain the demographic transition assumes that mortality is the key explanatory variable influencing the decline in fertility. However, the empirical results obtained in what is known as the Princeton European Fertility Project have led many specialists to question this assumption. Using both national and provincial aggregated data for 25 countries over a long time span, the analysis reported in this paper found that mortality does indeed play a fundamental role in accounting for the main demographic changes that occurred both before and during the transitional period. Others' research based on individual data has shown clearly that the number of surviving children was indeed an important factor for reproductive decisions. My analysis, using aggregated data, reached largely similar conclusions regarding the role of mortality in changing reproductive trends, via its impact on nuptiality and marital fertility at different stages of the demographic transition.

Impact of the global financial crisis on low birth weight in Portugal: a time-trend analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kana, Musa Abubakar; Correia, Sofia; Peleteiro, Barbara; Severo, Milton; Barros, Henrique

2017-01-01

The 2007-2008 global financial crisis had adverse consequences on population health of affected European countries. Few contemporary studies have studied its effect on perinatal indicators with long-lasting influence on adult health. Therefore, in this study, we investigated the impact of the 2007-2008 global financial crisis on low birth weight (LBW) in Portugal. Data on 2 045 155 singleton births of 1995-2014 were obtained from Statistics Portugal. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to identify the years in which changes in LBW trends occurred, and to estimate the annual per cent changes (APC). LBW risk by time period expressed as prevalence ratios were computed using the Poisson regression. Contextual changes in sociodemographic and economic factors were provided by their trends. The joinpoint analysis identified 3 distinct periods (2 jointpoints) with different APC in LBW, corresponding to 1995-1999 (APC=4.4; 95% CI 3.2 to 5.6), 2000-2006 (APC=0.1; 95% CI -050 to 0.7) and 2007-2014 (APC=1.6; 95% CI 1.2 to 2.0). For non-Portuguese, it was, respectively, 1995-1999 (APC=1.4; 95% CI -3.9 to 7.0%), 2000-2007 (APC=-4.2; 95% CI -6.4 to -2.0) and 2008-2014 (APC=3.1; 95% CI 0.8 to 5.5). Compared with 1995-1999, all specific maternal characteristics had a 10-15% increase in LBW risk in 2000-2006 and a 20-25% increase in 2007-2014, except among migrants, for which LBW risk remained lower than in 1995-1999 but increased after the crisis. The increasing LBW risk coincides with a deceleration in gross domestic product growth rate, reduction in health expenditure, social protection allocation on family/children support and sickness. The 2007-2008 global financial crisis was associated with a significant increase in LBW, particularly among infants of non-Portuguese mothers. We recommend strengthening social policies aimed at maternity protection for vulnerable mothers and health system maintenance of social equity in perinatal healthcare.

Recent trends in the U.S. Behavioral and Social Sciences Research (BSSR workforce.

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Hyungjo Hur

Full Text Available While behavioral and social sciences occupations comprise one of the largest portions of the "STEM" workforce, most studies of diversity in STEM overlook this population, focusing instead on fields such as biomedical or physical sciences. This study evaluates major demographic trends and productivity in the behavioral and social sciences research (BSSR workforce in the United States during the past decade. Our analysis shows that the demographic trends for different BSSR fields vary. In terms of gender balance, there is no single trend across all BSSR fields; rather, the problems are field-specific, and disciplines such as economics and political science continue to have more men than women. We also show that all BSSR fields suffer from a lack of racial and ethnic diversity. The BSSR workforce is, in fact, less representative of racial and ethnic minorities than are biomedical sciences or engineering. Moreover, in many BSSR subfields, minorities are less likely to receive funding. We point to various funding distribution patterns across different demographic groups of BSSR scientists, and discuss several policy implications.

Demography and growth: two forces leading to rising global income inequality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rougoor, W.; van Marrewijk, C.; Jiaotong, X.

2014-01-01

Global income inequality has been declining for several decades. We argue that global income inequality will reach its lowest level around 2027 and then will rise again. This development is the result of both economic and demographic forces. By combining economic projections with demographic

Getting caught with our plants down: the risks of a global crop yield slowdown from climate trends in the next two decades

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lobell, David B; Tebaldi, Claudia

2014-01-01

In many discussions of climate change impacts in agriculture, the large magnitudes of expected impacts toward the end of the century are used to emphasize that most of the risks are to future generations. However, this perspective misses the important fact that demand growth for food is expected to be much slower after 2050 than before it, and that the next two decades represent the bulk of growth before 2050. Thus, impacts of smaller magnitude in the near-term can be as or more consequential for food prices or food security as larger magnitude impacts in the future. Here we estimate the risks that climate trends over the next 10 or 20 years could have large impacts on global yields of wheat and maize, with a focus on scenarios that would cut the expected rates of yield gains in half. We find that because of global warming, the chance of climate trends over a 20 year period causing a 10% yield loss has increased from a less than 1 in 200 chance arising from internal climate variability alone, to a 1 in 10 chance for maize and 1 in 20 chance for wheat. Estimated risks for maize are higher because of a greater geographic concentration than wheat, as well as a slightly more negative aggregate temperature sensitivity. Global warming has also greatly increased the chance of climate trends large enough to halve yield trends over a 10 year period, with a roughly 1 in 4 chance for maize and 1 in 6 chance for wheat. Estimated risks are slightly larger when using climate projections from a large ensemble of a single climate model that more fully explores internal climate variability, than a multi-model ensemble that more fully explores model uncertainty. Although scenarios of climate impacts large enough to halve yield growth rates are still fairly unlikely, they may warrant consideration by institutions potentially affected by associated changes in international food prices. (paper)

Public endorsement of restrictions on three aspects of free expression by homosexuals: socio-demographic and trends analysis 1973-1988.

Science.gov (United States)

Dejowski, E F

1992-01-01

The willingness of the public to endorse proposals to remove gay-positive books from library shelves, to dismiss college teachers who are homosexuals, and to prohibit public speaking by homosexuals was examined. A socio-demographic analysis aggregating the entire period 1973 through 1988, and an analysis of trends over the period, were undertaken using data from the General Social Surveys. Responses to survey questions concerning homosexuals were compared with responses to similar questions concerning other unpopular groups, and to questions which called upon the respondent to make a moral judgment concerning homosexual relations. A significant decline over the period was found in the public's willingness to endorse restrictions on homosexuals, and on each of the other unpopular groups used for comparison. Level of education appeared to be a strong indicator of a more tolerant attitude. Paradoxically, negative moral attitudes toward homosexual relations did not decline. Bias in the wording of the General Social Surveys' questions concerning the moral dimension of homosexuality may have distorted these results, however. The public's moral attitude toward homosexual behavior does appear to be quite labile from year to year, suggesting that concerted efforts to educate the public on this subject can have an important and rapid effect.

Do we need numbers? The demographic fingerprint on crisis evidence

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Dragoş Lucian IVAN

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The economic revolution that took place in the world through globalization and through the industrial revolution made a deep and lasting impression that continues to haunt current visions on the future, leaving aside the importance of understanding demographic dynamics. The tendency towards a purely economic “reading” of contemporary reality pays scant regard to the demographic conditions of its production. Put simply, if we are to understand the contemporary crisis and if we desire for our current system to survive we should focus on a reconciliation of demography within the analysis of the actual functioning society.

The Urban Household in the 1980s: A Demographic and Economic Perspective. Revised.

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Muller, Thomas; And Others

This report focuses on demographic and economic changes affecting urban households during the 1980s. Statistics regarding birth, fertility and mortality rates, marriage and divorce, and household formation are presented. Metropolitan and interregional trends in mobility are examined by racial, income and age groups. Growth rates of the national…

GLOFs in the WOS: bibliometrics, geographies and global trends of research on glacial lake outburst floods (Web of Science, 1979-2016)

Science.gov (United States)

Emmer, Adam

2018-03-01

Research on glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) - specific low-frequency, high-magnitude floods originating in glacial lakes, including jökulhlaups - is well justified in the context of glacier ice loss and glacial lake evolution in glacierized areas all over the world. Increasing GLOF research activities, which are documented by the increasing number of published research items, have been observed in the past few decades; however, comprehensive insight into the GLOF research community, its global bibliometrics, geographies and trends in research is missing. To fill this gap, a set of 892 GLOF research items published in the Web of Science database covering the period 1979-2016 was analysed. General bibliometric characteristics, citations and references were analysed, revealing a certain change in the publishing paradigm over time. Furthermore, the global geographies of research on GLOFs were studied, focusing on (i) where GLOFs are studied, (ii) who studies GLOFs, (iii) the export of research on GLOFs and (iv) international collaboration. The observed trends and links to the challenges ahead are discussed and placed in a broader context.

Socio-demographic transformations and living conditions among two indigenous and black populations in Northern Cauca during the period of 1993-2005.

Science.gov (United States)

Urrea Giraldo, Fernando; Rodríguez Sánchez, Diego Alejandro

2012-04-01

To describe the changes that occurred in some patterns of socio-demographic variables and in living conditions among the Nasa, Guambiana and Afrocolombian populations in the northern region of the Department of Cauca, and those occurring in two residential communities, one white-mestizo and one black, in Cali during the 1993-2005 period. This paper presents a descriptive study that analyzes several socio-demographic indicators from the census of 1993 and 2005, the specific data include: rate of juvenile dependency; total masculinity index; average size of the household; specific global and local birth rates, and infant mortality rates; life expectancy at birth; average years of schooling; health cover age status; and percentage of the population with unmet basic needs (UBN). In this way, it is possible to note differences in the course of socio-demographic evolution and in the standard of living trends in the differing populations under study. The Guambiana Indian population in the municipality of Silvia presents lower birth rates than the Nasa population, characterized by their seasonal birth rates. Differing from the pattern of the indigenous people of Northern Cauca, the Afro-Colombian population both from this region and from the population residing in the urban zones of Cali's tend to show similar socio-demographic patterns. Although there have been profound changes recorded during this period among these populations under study, the ethnic-racial inequalities and those of social class seem to persist. From this first diagnosis, attention is called to the need for a more adequate reproductive health policy to attend the specific needs presented by the indigenous population.

Trends and Possible Future Developments in Global Forest-Product Markets—Implications for the Swedish Forest Sector

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Ragnar Jonsson

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes trends and possible future developments in global wood-product markets and discusses implications for the Swedish forest sector. Four possible futures, or scenarios, are considered, based on qualitative scenario analysis. The scenarios are distinguished principally by divergent futures with respect to two highly influential factors driving change in global wood-product markets, whose future development is unpredictable. These so-called critical uncertainties were found to be degrees to which: (i current patterns of globalization will continue, or be replaced by regionalism, and (ii concern about the environment, particularly climate change, related policy initiatives and customer preferences, will materialize. The overall future of the Swedish solid wood-product industry looks bright, irrespective of which of the four possible futures occurs, provided it accommodates the expected growth in demand for factory-made, energy-efficient construction components. The prospects for the pulp and paper industry in Sweden appear more ambiguous. Globalization is increasingly shifting production and consumption to the Southern hemisphere, adversely affecting employment and forest owners in Sweden. Further, technical progress in information and communication technology (ICT is expected to lead to drastic reductions in demand for newsprint and printing paper. Chemical pulp producers may profit from a growing bio-energy industry, since they could manufacture new, high-value products in integrated bio-refineries. Mechanical pulp producers cannot do this, however, and might suffer from higher prices for raw materials and electricity.

Global, regional and national levels and trends of preterm birth rates for 1990 to 2014: protocol for development of World Health Organization estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, Joshua P; Chawanpaiboon, Saifon; Watananirun, Kanokwaroon; Lumbiganon, Pisake; Petzold, Max; Moller, Ann-Beth; Thinkhamrop, Jadsada; Laopaiboon, Malinee; Seuc, Armando H; Hogan, Daniel; Tunçalp, Ozge; Allanson, Emma; Betrán, Ana Pilar; Bonet, Mercedes; Oladapo, Olufemi T; Gülmezoglu, A Metin

2016-06-17

The official WHO estimates of preterm birth are an essential global resource for assessing the burden of preterm birth and developing public health programmes and policies. This protocol describes the methods that will be used to identify, critically appraise and analyse all eligible preterm birth data, in order to develop global, regional and national level estimates of levels and trends in preterm birth rates for the period 1990 - 2014. We will conduct a systematic review of civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) data on preterm birth for all WHO Member States, via national Ministries of Health and Statistics Offices. For Member States with absent, limited or lower-quality CRVS data, a systematic review of surveys and/or research studies will be conducted. Modelling will be used to develop country, regional and global rates for 2014, with time trends for Member States where sufficient data are available. Member States will be invited to review the methodology and provide additional eligible data via a country consultation before final estimates are developed and disseminated. This research will be used to generate estimates on the burden of preterm birth globally for 1990 to 2014. We invite feedback on the methodology described, and call on the public health community to submit pertinent data for consideration. Registered at PROSPERO CRD42015027439 CONTACT: pretermbirth@who.int.

The demographic picture of Belgrade at the beginning of the 21st century

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Rašević Mirjana

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The central part of this paper is devoted to establishing the demographic picture of the City of Belgrade at the beginning of the 21st century. The authors discuss the number of inhabitants and the components of demographic growth through natural increase (fertility and mortality on the one hand and net migration on the other. Special attention was paid to the problem of refugees (the number and special distribution of refugees. Age and sex structure, the structure by marital status, as well as educational, and economic structures were analyzed. Current ethnic structure, as well as the changes in this structure since the early 1990s, were also presented. The analysis of the demographic picture has made it possible, first of all, to show the implications for the future of the established population trends, and second of all, to single out the basic demographic problems that need to be addressed strategically by the City of Belgrade and by the State.

National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years and 2·7 million participants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Danaei, Goodarz; Finucane, Mariel M; Lu, Yuan

2011-01-01

Data for trends in glycaemia and diabetes prevalence are needed to understand the effects of diet and lifestyle within populations, assess the performance of interventions, and plan health services. No consistent and comparable global analysis of trends has been done. We estimated trends and thei...

Prevalence and time trends in overweight and obesity among urban women: an analysis of demographic and health surveys data from 24 African countries, 1991–2014

Science.gov (United States)

Dimbuene, Zacharie T; Mberu, Blessing; Muthuri, Stella; Ezeh, Alex C

2017-01-01

Objective To examine the prevalence and trends in overweight and obesity among non-pregnant urban women in Africa over the past two and a half decades. Design Cross-sectional surveys conducted between 1991 and 2014. Settings Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), repeated cross-sectional data collected in 24 African countries. Participants Adult non-pregnant women aged 15–49 years. The earlier DHS collected anthropometric data on only those women who had children aged 0–5 years. The main analyses were limited to this subgroup. The participants were classified as overweight (25.0–29.9 kg/m2) and obese (≥30.0 kg/m2). Results The prevalence of overweight and obesity among women increased in all the 24 countries. Trends were statistically significant in 17 of the 24 countries in the case of obesity and 13 of the 24 for overweight. In Ghana, overweight almost doubled (p=0.001) while obesity tripled (p=0.001) between 1993 and 2014. Egypt has the highest levels of overweight and obesity at 44% (95% CI 42%, 46.5%) and 39% (95% CI 36.6%, 41.8%), respectively, in 2014 and the trend showed significant increase (p=0.005) from 1995 levels. Also, obesity doubled in Kenya, Benin, Niger, Rwanda, Ivory Coast and Uganda, while tripled in Zambia, Burkina Faso, Mali, Malawi and Tanzania. Ethiopia and Madagascar had the lowest prevalence of both obesity and overweight, with overweight ranging from 7% to 12% and obesity from 1% to 4%. Conclusions Overweight and obesity are increasing among women of reproductive age in urban Africa, with obesity among this age group having more than doubled or tripled in 12 of the 24 countries. There is an urgent need for deliberate policies and interventions to encourage active lifestyles and healthy eating behaviour to curb this trend in urban Africa. PMID:29079606

Investigational report on the trend of measures for global warming; Chikyu ondanka taisaku doko chosa hokokusho

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-03-01

To know the trend of measures taken for global warming, conducted were overseas surveys, participation in academic society meetings, and literature surveys. The phaseout time of all ozone depleting substances responsible for the ozonospherial destruction was determined for both developed and developing countries in the 7th Meeting of countries which concluded the Montreal Protocol. As information on measures for protecting the ozonosphere, introduced was activities under United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). New fluorine containing ethers were introduced as cleaning solvent which causes no ozonospherial destruction and is low in global warming index. Toxicity data were obtained on HFC-236ea and HFC-236fa which are promising substitutes in HCFC foaming and refrigerant fields. The paper introduced an outline of the 1st Meeting of countries which concluded the Framework Convention on Climate Change held in 1995. According to the report on the National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection of the Netherlands, the amount of emission of fluorine containing greenhouse effect gas (in CO2 conversion) reached 8-14% of all the amount of greenhouse effect gas emitted in 1990 unless the control is reinforced. An outline of the TEWI-3 project was introduced which is useful for comparing effects of substitution technologies on global warming. 14 refs., 11 figs., 29 tabs.

[Globalization and infectious diseases].

Science.gov (United States)

Mirski, Tomasz; Bartoszcze, Michał; Bielawska-Drózd, Agata

2011-01-01

Globalization is a phenomenon characteristic of present times. It can be considered in various aspects: economic, environmental changes, demographic changes, as well as the development of new technologies. All these aspects of globalization have a definite influence on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases. Economic aspects ofglobalization are mainly the trade development, including food trade, which has an impact on the spread of food-borne diseases. The environmental changes caused by intensive development of industry, as a result of globalization, which in turn affects human health. The demographic changes are mainly people migration between countries and rural and urban areas, which essentially favors the global spread of many infectious diseases. While technological advances prevents the spread of infections, for example through better access to information, it may also increase the risk, for example through to create opportunities to travel into more world regions, including the endemic regions for various diseases. The phenomenon ofglobalization is also closely associated with the threat of terrorism, including bioterrorism. It forces the governments of many countries to develop effective programs to protect and fight against this threat.

Links that speak: The global language network and its association with global fame

Science.gov (United States)

Ronen, Shahar; Gonçalves, Bruno; Hu, Kevin Z.; Vespignani, Alessandro; Pinker, Steven; Hidalgo, César A.

2014-01-01

Languages vary enormously in global importance because of historical, demographic, political, and technological forces. However, beyond simple measures of population and economic power, there has been no rigorous quantitative way to define the global influence of languages. Here we use the structure of the networks connecting multilingual speakers and translated texts, as expressed in book translations, multiple language editions of Wikipedia, and Twitter, to provide a concept of language importance that goes beyond simple economic or demographic measures. We find that the structure of these three global language networks (GLNs) is centered on English as a global hub and around a handful of intermediate hub languages, which include Spanish, German, French, Russian, Portuguese, and Chinese. We validate the measure of a language’s centrality in the three GLNs by showing that it exhibits a strong correlation with two independent measures of the number of famous people born in the countries associated with that language. These results suggest that the position of a language in the GLN contributes to the visibility of its speakers and the global popularity of the cultural content they produce. PMID:25512502

Trends in Medication Treatment for ADHD

Science.gov (United States)

Castle, Lon; Aubert, Ronald E.; Verbrugge, Robert R.; Khalid, Mona; Epstein, Robert S.

2007-01-01

Objective: This study examines demographic trends in the use of medications to treat ADHD in adult and pediatric populations. Method: Using pharmacy claims data for a large population of commercially insured Americans, the study measures ADHD treatment prevalence and drug use from 2000 to 2005. Results: In 2005, 4.4% of children (ages 0 to 19) and…

Impact of demographic ageing on sustainability of public finance in Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zdravković Aleksandar

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Population ageing is a global phenomenon without precedent in the history of humanity having implications in all facets of life. From an economic point of view, population ageing is certainly one of the biggest challenges of modern time. A consequence of these global demographic tendencies reflected in growing number of pensioners which negatively affects sustainability of public pension systems financed by the principle of intergenerational solidarity (Pay-As-You-Go - widely represented in public pension schemes of European countries. In this paper, impact of demographic ageing on pension systems is analyzed in the context of sustainability of public finance in Serbia in the period 2010-2050. Although the comparative analysis of the pension expenditure share in gross domestic product (GDP does not point to significant differences between Serbia and the countries in the neighborhood and the European Union, the growth trend of subsidizing the Pension Fund from the government budget endangers medium-term sustainability of the public pension system in Serbia, bearing in mind that the implementation of measures proposed in pension reforms can be valorized only in the long run. The main objective of the analysis is projecting long-term pension expenditure as a share of GDP. The projections were formed indirectly by modeling the average pension expenditure, because this variable incorporates both growth in the total pension expenditure and growth in the number of pensioners as a result of demographic trends, and better reflects the actual growth of pension expenditure. For the purposes of the analysis, in addition to the projection of real GDP growth, size of the inactive population aged 65 and over, as the main contingent of the pension system users and the total number of pensioners, was projected by means of stochastic cohort component methodology. Based on these projections and assumptions about the growth rate of average pension expenditure

Demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions: are they relevant to population health patterns in Africa?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barthélémy Kuate Defo

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Background: Studies of trends in population changes and epidemiological profiles in the developing world have overwhelmingly relied upon the concepts of demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions, even though their usefulness in describing and understanding population and health trends in developing countries has been repeatedly called into question. The issue is particularly relevant for the study of population health patterns in Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, as the history and experience there differs substantially from that of Western Europe and North America, for which these concepts were originally developed. Objective: The aim of this study is two-fold: to review and clarify any distinction between the concepts of demographic transition, epidemiological transition and health transition and to identify summary indicators of population health to test how well these concepts apply in Africa. Results: Notwithstanding the characteristically diverse African context, Africa is a continent of uncertainties and emergencies where discontinuities and interruptions of health, disease, and mortality trends reflect the enduring fragility and instability of countries and the vulnerabilities of individuals and populations in the continent. Africa as a whole remains the furthest behind the world's regions in terms of health improvements and longevity, as do its sub-Saharan African regions and societies specifically. This study documents: 1 theoretically and empirically the similarities and differences between the demographic transition, epidemiological transition, and health transition; 2 simple summary indicators that can be used to evaluate their descriptive and predictive features; 3 marked disparities in the onset and pace of variations and divergent trends in health, disease, and mortality patterns as well as fertility and life expectancy trajectories among African countries and regions over the past 60 years; 4 the rapid decline in infant

Demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions: are they relevant to population health patterns in Africa?

Science.gov (United States)

Kuate Defo, Barthélémy

2014-01-01

Background Studies of trends in population changes and epidemiological profiles in the developing world have overwhelmingly relied upon the concepts of demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions, even though their usefulness in describing and understanding population and health trends in developing countries has been repeatedly called into question. The issue is particularly relevant for the study of population health patterns in Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, as the history and experience there differs substantially from that of Western Europe and North America, for which these concepts were originally developed. Objective The aim of this study is two-fold: to review and clarify any distinction between the concepts of demographic transition, epidemiological transition and health transition and to identify summary indicators of population health to test how well these concepts apply in Africa. Results Notwithstanding the characteristically diverse African context, Africa is a continent of uncertainties and emergencies where discontinuities and interruptions of health, disease, and mortality trends reflect the enduring fragility and instability of countries and the vulnerabilities of individuals and populations in the continent. Africa as a whole remains the furthest behind the world's regions in terms of health improvements and longevity, as do its sub-Saharan African regions and societies specifically. This study documents: 1) theoretically and empirically the similarities and differences between the demographic transition, epidemiological transition, and health transition; 2) simple summary indicators that can be used to evaluate their descriptive and predictive features; 3) marked disparities in the onset and pace of variations and divergent trends in health, disease, and mortality patterns as well as fertility and life expectancy trajectories among African countries and regions over the past 60 years; 4) the rapid decline in infant mortality and gains

Material Stock Demographics: Cars in Great Britain.

Science.gov (United States)

Cabrera Serrenho, André; Allwood, Julian M

2016-03-15

Recent literature on material flow analysis has been focused on quantitative characterization of past material flows. Fewer analyses exist on past and prospective quantification of stocks of materials in-use. Some of these analyses explore the composition of products' stocks, but a focus on the characterization of material stocks and its relation with service delivery is often neglected. We propose the use of the methods of human demography to characterize material stocks, defined herein as stock demographics, exploring the insights that this approach could provide for the sustainable management of materials. We exemplify an application of stock demographics by characterizing the composition and service delivery of iron, steel, and aluminum stocks of cars in Great Britain, 2002-2012. The results show that in this period the stock has become heavier, it is traveling less, and it is idle for more time. The visualization of material stocks' dynamics demonstrates the pace of product replacement as a function of its usefulness and enables the formulation of policy interventions and the exploration of future trends.

A systematic review of long-term outcomes in ADHD: global publication trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul eHodgkins

2012-01-01

Full Text Available There is increased global recognition of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD as a serious medical condition with long-term consequences. Although originally conceived of as a childhood disorder, ADHD is being increasingly recognized in adults. Individual geographic regions may have specific interests and objectives for the study of ADHD. A systematic review of long-term outcomes (LTOs in ADHD was conducted to evaluate research on ADHD LTOs on a global scale. Studies that were at least two years in duration were examined. We identified nine outcomes of interest and classified studies by specific geographical regions, age groups studied and study design by region and over time. Published studies of LTOs in ADHD have increased in all geographical regions over the past three decades, with a peak number of publications in 2008. Although many world regions have published on ADHD LTOs, the majority of studies have emerged from the US and Canada, followed by Europe. While investigators in the US and Canada were predominantly interested in drug addiction as a LTO, European researchers were more interested in antisocial behavior, and Eastern Asian investigators focused on both of these LTOs as well as self-esteem. Proportionally fewer prospective longitudinal studies and proportionally more retrospective and cross-sectional studies have been published in more recent decades. Finally, more studies focusing on ADHD in adolescents and adults have been conducted in recent years, and particularly adolescents in Eastern Asia. This systematic review analysis of publication trends in ADHD LTOs reflects geographically-based interests that change over time.

Global Innovation in Emerging Economies | CRDI - Centre de ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

21 déc. 2010 ... There are mainly two new trends: the location of globally strategic R&D by multinational corporations in developing countries and, more recently, the trend for companies in emerging economies to perform R&D to develop products and services for global markets. These trends are occurring in a dynamic ...

Global power: Markets and strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poirer, J.L.

1998-01-01

The author will first present an updated view of the global power market activity, including opportunities in power generation, transmission and distribution. This will include a review of the trends in closings and transaction flowed by type of activity and geographic area. Estimates will be based on Hagler Bailly's comprehensive database on global power transactions and project announcements. The firm has also worked with dozens of global power companies since 1990. Second, the author will review trends in terms of regulatory changes, project cost trends, developers' project experiences, and financing issues. This systematic review will be the foundation for projection of future market activity (e.g., number of closing by type of project through 2000). A forecast of future greenfield and privatization activity will be provided and the key markets will be highlighted. Third, the author will present an updated view of the competition in the global power market (including the various types of competitors and changes in their respective market posture). Finally, the author will discuss the various types of strategies and business models that are followed by key global power players

Regional Trends in Electromobility - Regional Study North America

OpenAIRE

Turrentine, Tom; Garas, Dhalia

2015-01-01

The subproject “Regional Trends in Electro mobility” aims at identifying and analyzing major trends in the field of electro mobility. The trend analysis will monitor research effort and upcoming technologies, policies, products and market developments in different focus regions around the world continuously to enable a systematic analysis of global trends. The regional trend analysis for electro mobility is a major keystone for the project success and therefore cooperation with...

Demographic monitoring of wild muriqui populations: Criteria for defining priority areas and monitoring intensity.

Science.gov (United States)

Strier, Karen B; Possamai, Carla B; Tabacow, Fernanda P; Pissinatti, Alcides; Lanna, Andre M; Rodrigues de Melo, Fabiano; Moreira, Leandro; Talebi, Maurício; Breves, Paula; Mendes, Sérgio L; Jerusalinsky, Leandro

2017-01-01

Demographic data are essential to assessments of the status of endangered species. However, establishing an integrated monitoring program to obtain useful data on contemporary and future population trends requires both the identification of priority areas and populations and realistic evaluations of the kinds of data that can be obtained under different monitoring regimes. We analyzed all known populations of a critically endangered primate, the muriqui (genus: Brachyteles) using population size, genetic uniqueness, geographic importance (including potential importance in corridor programs) and implementability scores to define monitoring priorities. Our analyses revealed nine priority populations for the northern muriqui (B. hypoxanthus) and nine for the southern muriqui (B. arachnoides). In addition, we employed knowledge of muriqui developmental and life history characteristics to define the minimum monitoring intensity needed to evaluate demographic trends along a continuum ranging from simple descriptive changes in population size to predictions of population changes derived from individual based life histories. Our study, stimulated by the Brazilian government's National Action Plan for the Conservation of Muriquis, is fundamental to meeting the conservation goals for this genus, and also provides a model for defining priorities and methods for the implementation of integrated demographic monitoring programs for other endangered and critically endangered species of primates.

Demographic monitoring of wild muriqui populations: Criteria for defining priority areas and monitoring intensity.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karen B Strier

Full Text Available Demographic data are essential to assessments of the status of endangered species. However, establishing an integrated monitoring program to obtain useful data on contemporary and future population trends requires both the identification of priority areas and populations and realistic evaluations of the kinds of data that can be obtained under different monitoring regimes. We analyzed all known populations of a critically endangered primate, the muriqui (genus: Brachyteles using population size, genetic uniqueness, geographic importance (including potential importance in corridor programs and implementability scores to define monitoring priorities. Our analyses revealed nine priority populations for the northern muriqui (B. hypoxanthus and nine for the southern muriqui (B. arachnoides. In addition, we employed knowledge of muriqui developmental and life history characteristics to define the minimum monitoring intensity needed to evaluate demographic trends along a continuum ranging from simple descriptive changes in population size to predictions of population changes derived from individual based life histories. Our study, stimulated by the Brazilian government's National Action Plan for the Conservation of Muriquis, is fundamental to meeting the conservation goals for this genus, and also provides a model for defining priorities and methods for the implementation of integrated demographic monitoring programs for other endangered and critically endangered species of primates.

Hot stuff. Global warming as a giant trend

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brunstad, Bjoern

2007-01-01

The article presents various aspects of global warming with focus on meteorological data, global discharges, estimated surface temperature increments, ocean level elevations and net warming effects of various human activities. The consequences for the economic and social developments are discussed. Some action possibilities are mentioned. (tk)

Banking Strategy Demography - Future Population Trend: Implication for Banking

OpenAIRE

Teo, Lee Koon; Tripathi, Sanjay; Kazi, Zaid

2010-01-01

The world is going through a major shift in demographic structure that will affect the economies and global markets in a major way over the next few decades. While extensive research has been done on the macro-economic implications of demographic changes, very little research has been conducted on the demographic challenges at an industry level or for firms and on how these firms should react. The banking sector, in particular has received little attention. The project is initiated by the Glo...

Bank Consolidation, Internationalization, and Conglomeration; Trends and Implications for Financial Risk

OpenAIRE

Gianni De Nicolo; Mary G Zephirin; Philip F. Bartholomew; Jahanara Zaman

2003-01-01

This paper documents global trends in bank activity, consolidation, internationalization, and financial firm conglomeration, and explores the extent to which financial firm risk and systemic risk potential in banking are related to consolidation and conglomeration. We find that while there is a substantial upward trend in conglomeration globally, consolidation and internationalization exhibit uneven patterns across world regions. Trends in consolidation and conglomeration indicate increased r...

Demographic factors associated with smoking cessation during pregnancy in New South Wales, Australia, 2000-2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Passmore, Erin; McGuire, Rhydwyn; Correll, Patricia; Bentley, Jason

2015-04-18

Smoking during pregnancy increases the risk of adverse health outcomes for both the mother and the child. Rates of smoking during pregnancy, and rates of smoking cessation during pregnancy, vary between demographic groups. This study describes demographic factors associated with smoking cessation during pregnancy in New South Wales, Australia, and describes trends in smoking cessation in demographic subgroups over the period 2000 - 2011. Data were obtained from the New South Wales Perinatal Data Collection, a population-based surveillance system covering all births in New South Wales. Multivariate logistic regression was used to explore associations between smoking cessation during pregnancy and demographic factors. Between 2000 and 2011, rates of smoking cessation in pregnancy increased from 4.0% to 25.2%. Demographic characteristics associated with lower rates of smoking cessation during pregnancy included being a teenage mother, being an Aboriginal person, and having a higher number of previous pregnancies. Between 2000 and 2011, rates of smoking cessation during pregnancy increased dramatically across all demographic groups. However, specific demographic groups remain significantly less likely to quit smoking, suggesting a need for targeted efforts to promote smoking cessation in these groups.

Seabirds, gyres and global trends in plastic pollution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Franeker, Jan A. van; Law, Kara Lavender

2015-01-01

Fulmars are effective biological indicators of the abundance of floating plastic marine debris. Long-term data reveal high plastic abundance in the southern North Sea, gradually decreasing to the north at increasing distance from population centres, with lowest levels in high-arctic waters. Since the 1980s, pre-production plastic pellets in North Sea fulmars have decreased by ∼75%, while user plastics varied without a strong overall change. Similar trends were found in net-collected floating plastic debris in the North Atlantic subtropical gyre, with a ∼75% decrease in plastic pellets and no obvious trend in user plastic. The decreases in pellets suggest that changes in litter input are rapidly visible in the environment not only close to presumed sources, but also far from land. Floating plastic debris is rapidly “lost” from the ocean surface to other as-yet undetermined sinks in the marine environment. - Highlights: • Seabirds are effective biological monitors of floating plastic marine debris. • Plastics in fulmar stomachs and in the North Atlantic gyre show similar trends. • Pre-production plastic pellets show strong decreases in fulmars and in the gyre. • These data show that floating plastics rapidly disappear from the ocean surface. - Long term studies give evidence that reduced input of plastic debris into the ocean becomes rapidly visible. Floating plastics disappear to as-yet undetermined sinks

SHADOW GLOBALIZATION

OpenAIRE

Larissa Mihaylovna Kapitsa

2014-01-01

The article reviews some development trends brought about by globalization, particularly, a growing tax evasion and tax avoidance, an expansion of illicit financial flows and the proliferation of a global criminal network. The author draws attention to some new phenomena, particularly, cosmopolitanization of some parts of national elites and a deepening divide between national interests and the private interests of elites as a consequence of financial globalization. Modern mass media, both Ru...

The Use of Surrogate Data in Demographic Population Viability Analysis: A Case Study of California Sea Lions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudia J Hernández-Camacho

Full Text Available Reliable data necessary to parameterize population models are seldom available for imperiled species. As an alternative, data from populations of the same species or from ecologically similar species have been used to construct models. In this study, we evaluated the use of demographic data collected at one California sea lion colony (Los Islotes to predict the population dynamics of the same species from two other colonies (San Jorge and Granito in the Gulf of California, Mexico, for which demographic data are lacking. To do so, we developed a stochastic demographic age-structured matrix model and conducted a population viability analysis for each colony. For the Los Islotes colony we used site-specific pup, juvenile, and adult survival probabilities, as well as birth rates for older females. For the other colonies, we used site-specific pup and juvenile survival probabilities, but used surrogate data from Los Islotes for adult survival probabilities and birth rates. We assessed these models by comparing simulated retrospective population trajectories to observed population trends based on count data. The projected population trajectories approximated the observed trends when surrogate data were used for one colony but failed to match for a second colony. Our results indicate that species-specific and even region-specific surrogate data may lead to erroneous conservation decisions. These results highlight the importance of using population-specific demographic data in assessing extinction risk. When vital rates are not available and immediate management actions must be taken, in particular for imperiled species, we recommend the use of surrogate data only when the populations appear to have similar population trends.

The Use of Surrogate Data in Demographic Population Viability Analysis: A Case Study of California Sea Lions

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

Reliable data necessary to parameterize population models are seldom available for imperiled species. As an alternative, data from populations of the same species or from ecologically similar species have been used to construct models. In this study, we evaluated the use of demographic data collected at one California sea lion colony (Los Islotes) to predict the population dynamics of the same species from two other colonies (San Jorge and Granito) in the Gulf of California, Mexico, for which demographic data are lacking. To do so, we developed a stochastic demographic age-structured matrix model and conducted a population viability analysis for each colony. For the Los Islotes colony we used site-specific pup, juvenile, and adult survival probabilities, as well as birth rates for older females. For the other colonies, we used site-specific pup and juvenile survival probabilities, but used surrogate data from Los Islotes for adult survival probabilities and birth rates. We assessed these models by comparing simulated retrospective population trajectories to observed population trends based on count data. The projected population trajectories approximated the observed trends when surrogate data were used for one colony but failed to match for a second colony. Our results indicate that species-specific and even region-specific surrogate data may lead to erroneous conservation decisions. These results highlight the importance of using population-specific demographic data in assessing extinction risk. When vital rates are not available and immediate management actions must be taken, in particular for imperiled species, we recommend the use of surrogate data only when the populations appear to have similar population trends. PMID:26413746

Eczema, Atopic Dermatitis, or Atopic Eczema: Analysis of Global Search Engine Trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Shuai; Thyssen, Jacob P; Paller, Amy S; Silverberg, Jonathan I

The lack of standardized nomenclature for atopic dermatitis (AD) creates challenges for scientific communication, patient education, and advocacy. We sought to determine the relative popularity of the terms eczema, AD, and atopic eczema (AE) using global search engine volumes. A retrospective analysis of average monthly search volumes from 2014 to 2016 of Google, Bing/Yahoo, and Baidu was performed for eczema, AD, and AE in English and 37 other languages. Google Trends was used to determine the relative search popularity of each term from 2006 to 2016 in English and the top foreign languages, German, Turkish, Russian, and Japanese. Overall, eczema accounted for 1.5 million monthly searches (84%) compared with 247 000 searches for AD (14%) and 44 000 searches for AE (2%). For English language, eczema accounted for 93% of searches compared with 6% for AD and 1% for AE. Search popularity for eczema increased from 2006 to 2016 but remained stable for AD and AE. Given the ambiguity of the term eczema, we recommend the universal use of the next most popular term, AD.

The use of a surveillance system to measure changes in mental health in Australian adults during the global financial crisis.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Zumin; Taylor, Anne W; Goldney, Robert; Winefield, Helen; Gill, Tiffany K; Tuckerman, Jane; Wittert, Gary

2011-08-01

This study aimed to describe trends in a range of mental health indicators in South Australia where a surveillance system has been in operation since July 2002 and assess the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC). Data were collected using a risk factor surveillance system. Participants, aged 16 years and above, were asked about doctor-diagnosed anxiety, stress or depression, suicidal ideation, psychological distress (PD), demographic and socioeconomic factors using Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI). Overall, there was a decreasing trend in the prevalence of PD between 2002 and 2009. Stress has decreased since 2004 although anxiety has increased. Comparing 2008 or 2009 (the economic crisis period) with 2005 or 2007, there was significant increase in anxiety for part-time workers but a decrease for full-time workers. There were significant differences for stress by various demographic variables. The overall prevalence of mental health conditions has not increased during the GFC. Some subgroups in the population have been disproportionately impacted by changes in mental health status. The use of a surveillance system enables rapid and specifically targeted public health and policy responses to socioeconomic and environmental stressors, and the evaluation of outcomes.

Energy and globalization: towards a new deal? File nr 29

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meritet, Sophie; Lincot, Emmanuel; Pereyron, Gilles; Criqui, Patrick

2013-03-01

This document proposes large summaries of contributions presented at a meeting on globalization held in March 2013. These contributions addressed the following topics: future world perspectives for energy (market evolution, actors, trends and scenarios), China in front of the energy challenge (search for an always strong economic growth, severe environmental impacts due to energy over-consumption which resulted in a new governance, evolution of Chinese diplomacy and energy supply origins), levers in favour of a universal access to energy (demographic evolutions, energy availability, differences within countries and between geographical locations, fuel poverty in Africa and also in northern countries, proposition of an introduction of a right for energy and for water in European constitutions), and some elements of thoughts about energy transition at the world level (scenarios, different policies to face the energy challenge)

ITDB information ; global risks, trends and patterns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

The trend in the quantities of nuclear materials seized in trafficking have decreased per incidence, however some seizures involved only samples. Most incidents have involved nuclear material from pre-conversion, conversion, fuel fabrication and storage facilities. Few of the incidents have shown evidence of materials from enrichment and reprocessing facilities. the involvement of insiders and the stealing techniques used are yet to be thoroughly analysed.

Sea level trends in South East Asian Seas (SEAS)

Science.gov (United States)

Strassburg, M. W.; Hamlington, B. D.; Leben, R. R.; Manurung, P.; Lumban Gaol, J.; Nababan, B.; Vignudelli, S.; Kim, K.-Y.

2014-10-01

Southeast Asian Seas (SEAS) span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The SEAS regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost two decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17 year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement in areas and at times of strong signal to noise associated decadal variability forced by low frequency variations in Pacific trade winds. The SEAS region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically over the studied time period. This historical variation suggests that the strong regional sea level trends observed during the modern satellite altimeter record will abate as trade winds fluctuate on decadal and longer time scales. Furthermore, after removing the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to sea level trends in the past twenty years, the rate of sea level rise is greatly reduced in the SEAS region. As a result of the influence of the PDO, the SEAS regional sea level trends during 2010s and 2020s are likely to be less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) trend if the observed oscillations in wind forcing and sea level persist. Nevertheless, long-term sea level trends in the SEAS will continue to be affected by GMSL rise occurring now and in the future.

Assessing the Short-Term Global Health Experience: A Cross-Sectional Study of Demographics, Socioeconomic Factors, and Disease Prevalence.

Science.gov (United States)

Geen, Olivia; Pumputis, Allison; Kochi, Cristina; Costa, Andrew; Stobbe, Karl

2017-08-01

Interest in short-term global health experiences to underserviced populations has grown rapidly in the last few decades. However, there remains very little research on what participants can expect to encounter. At the same time, it has been suggested that in order for physicians and workers to provide safe and effective care, volunteers should have a basic understanding of local culture, health systems, epidemiology, and socioeconomic needs of the community before arriving. Our objective was to add to the limited literature on what short-term global health trips can expect to encounter through a cross-sectional study of patient demographics, socioeconomic markers, and the prevalence of diseases encountered on a short-term medical service trip to Lima, Peru. Descriptive analysis was conducted on clinic data collected from patients living in Pamplona Alta and Pamplona Baja, Lima, Peru, in July 2015. We found that volunteers encountered mainly female patients (70.8%), and that there were significant socioeconomic barriers to care including poverty, poor housing, environmental exposures, and lack of continuity of health care. Analysis of the disease prevalence found a high proportion of acute and chronic musculoskeletal pain in the adult populations (18.8% and 11.4%, respectively), and a high presentation of upper respiratory tract infections (25.4%) and parasites (22.0%) in the pediatric group. These findings can be used by future short-term medical service trips to address potential gaps in care including the organization of weekend clinics to allow access to working men, and the use of patient education and nonpharmacological management of acute and chronic disease.

Spatial and Temporal Trends of Global Pollination Benefit

Science.gov (United States)

Lautenbach, Sven; Seppelt, Ralf; Liebscher, Juliane; Dormann, Carsten F.

2012-01-01

Pollination is a well-studied and at the same time a threatened ecosystem service. A significant part of global crop production depends on or profits from pollination by animals. Using detailed information on global crop yields of 60 pollination dependent or profiting crops, we provide a map of global pollination benefits on a 5′ by 5′ latitude-longitude grid. The current spatial pattern of pollination benefits is only partly correlated with climate variables and the distribution of cropland. The resulting map of pollination benefits identifies hot spots of pollination benefits at sufficient detail to guide political decisions on where to protect pollination services by investing in structural diversity of land use. Additionally, we investigated the vulnerability of the national economies with respect to potential decline of pollination services as the portion of the (agricultural) economy depending on pollination benefits. While the general dependency of the agricultural economy on pollination seems to be stable from 1993 until 2009, we see increases in producer prices for pollination dependent crops, which we interpret as an early warning signal for a conflict between pollination service and other land uses at the global scale. Our spatially explicit analysis of global pollination benefit points to hot spots for the generation of pollination benefits and can serve as a base for further planning of land use, protection sites and agricultural policies for maintaining pollination services. PMID:22563427

Manufacturing mobility in global operations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Steenhuis, H.J.; de Bruijn, E.J.

2002-01-01

The globalization trend inevitably affects the organization of manufacturing by enterprises. It offers opportunities to examine manufacturing from a global perspective and consequently to produce where it is most appropriate. However, globalization has also led to an increase in competitive

Planet earth 1984-2034: a demographic vision.

Science.gov (United States)

Bouvier, L F

1984-02-01

In recognition of 1984 as the year of both Orwell's famous futuristic novel and the International Population Conference following up the 1974 World Population Conference, this Bulletin examines the current state of world population and presents the author's speculations on what it might be 50 years from now. World population, now close to 4.8 billion and growing at 1.8%/year, is being shaped by 3 demographic phenomena: prolonged below-replacement fertility in developed nations, perhaps partly in response to the reduced need for workers in the emerging information era; rapid growth despite failing fertility in developing nations, due to earlier rapid mortality decline; and rapid urbanization in developing nations and unprecedented migration from poor to better-off nations. The author's assumptions for nondemographic factors related to population change in the next 50 years are no world war, nuclear or otherwise; global resource adequacy; rapid scientific and technological progress shared equitably; and the demise of capitalism and communism and greatly increased economic aid from advanced to less advanced nations. For 2034 the author envisages nations divided into service/information societies (4% of global population) where immigration balances low fertility to prevent population decline; industrialized nations (38% of total), with fertility close to or at replacement level and growth slowing; developing nations (43%), in sight of replacement level fertility; and least developed nations, with still critical demographic problems but only 15% of the world population. Total population will be 8.03 billion, but growth will be down to 0.8%/year and global zero growth is possible in another 50 years. This relatively optimistic scenario for 2034 will only be possible if mankind acts to see that the stated nondemographic assumptions are borne out.

Trends in energy efficiency in countries of the Mediterranean Rim

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2014-04-01

This report describes trends in energy efficiency in four countries of the southern side of the Mediterranean Sea (Algeria, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia) and five Mediterranean European countries (France, Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal). This study is based on energy efficiency indicators per sector of energy consumption as they are developed within the frame of the MEDENER project for the four southern countries and of the ODYSSEE-MURE project for the European countries. The report presents the context of energy efficiency (challenges and objectives, trends in energy consumption, primary and final intensities), discusses trends of energy efficiency in the transformation sector, in the housing sector, in the transport sector (trends in consumption, road and air transport), in the industry (sector intensities), in the tertiary sector (global trends, sector indicators), and in agriculture and fishing (global trends and sector indicators)

Economic and Demographic Trends in Jesuit Higher Education: A Qualitative Multiple Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Damien J.

2017-01-01

This study addressed the current paucity of research dedicated to the perceptions of strategic planners in Jesuit colleges and universities pertaining to how current market trends are impacting their institutions. The collective success of member institutions is paramount as these institutions are purveyors of Ignatian principals such as social…

Global trends in radiation processing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Defalco, Gerry

2002-01-01

A global leader in radioisotope technology with three business units: - Nuclear Medicine supplies about two-thirds of the world requirements for molybdenum-99 and other isotopes used to diagnose disease - Radiation Therapy business unit supplied more than over 2,300 cobalt cancer treatment machines and is a leader in treatment planning - Ion Technologies is the world's leading supplier of cobalt 60 and innovative gamma irradiation systems About Ion Technologies · Supply over 70% of world's cobalt-60 sources · Custom-designed and built irradiation systems · Comprehensive engineering, physics, logistics, installation and marketing services · Canadian Irradiation Center for unique 'hands on' training, R and D product irradiation

An Analysis of the Strategic Planning Efforts of (Arch)Dioceses with Similar Demographic Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Semmler, Carl A.

2016-01-01

The population of the Catholic elementary schools has been on the downward trend for over half a century. Various Catholic (arch)dioceses have responded by creating strategic plans for their elementary and secondary institutions of education. Shifts in demographics and population migration have been noted in both secular and non-secular data.…

Time trends of chronic HBV infection over prior decades - A global analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ott, Jördis J; Horn, Johannes; Krause, Gérard; Mikolajczyk, Rafael T

2017-01-01

Information on trends in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) prevalence across countries is lacking. We studied changes in chronic HBV infection over previous decades by country, and assessed patterns of change between and within WHO-defined regions. Based on data from a published systematic review on chronic HBV, we applied a linear model on the logit scale to assess time trends in country-specific prevalence. Estimated HBsAg prevalence in 2000 and relative changes in prevalence over time were evaluated by country and region. Sufficient data were available for 50 countries, mostly showing reductions in prevalence over time. Various degrees of heterogeneity were observed within regions, with a relatively homogenous pattern in the Eastern Mediterranean region with strong decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Europe showed a mixed pattern: higher and stable chronic HBsAg prevalence in Eastern, and constantly low prevalence in Western Europe. In Africa, some countries demonstrated no change in prevalence; increases were seen in Uganda (odds ratio 1.05 per year; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.06), Nigeria (1.02; 1.02-1.02), Senegal (1.01; 1.01-1.02), and South Africa (1.02; 1.01-1.02). With some exceptions, country-patterns overlapped among countries of South East Asian and Western Pacific regions, characterized by low-medium HBsAg decreases, most prominent in China and Malaysia. Most countries experienced decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Dynamics varied, even within regions; decreases occurred mostly before the direct effects of childhood vaccination may have manifested. These findings together with stable and increasing HBsAg prevalence in some countries of Africa and Eastern Europe indicate the need for further tailored country-specific prevention. This study investigated time trends in prevalence of chronic HBV infection in 50 countries worldwide over the last decade, by estimating relative changes in prevalence. Results show decreases in chronic HBV infection in most countries

Decline, Adaptation or Transformation:New Perspectives on Demographic Change in Resource Peripheries in Australia and Sweden

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dean B. Carson

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Many sparsely populated resource peripheries in developed countries are perceived to suffer from periods of demographic decline due to loss of employment opportunities and services, youth out-migration and population ageing. While these trends tend to apply at broad regional scales and for particular time periods, diverse patterns of demographic change may be apparent if different spatial, temporal and social scales of analysis are taken into consideration. Comparing the experiences of two case study regions in northern Sweden and inland South Australia, this paper proposes an alternative conceptual framework to the “discourse of decline”, which could be used to examine the nuances of demographic change within resource peripheries. The framework includes spatial scale considerations that contrast broader regional demographic patterns with the experiences of sub-regions and individual settlements. It also includes temporal scale aspects, examining demographic change over different time periods to understand the pace, duration and frequency of population growth and decline. The framework finally includes social unit considerations, emphasising that demographic change affects different social groups in different ways. The results of the case studies suggest that considering demographic change as adaptation or transformation rather than decline may be more useful for identifying new – and qualitatively different – demographic pathways that emerge over time.

Peripheralisation: The Missing Link in Dealing with Demographic Change?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tim Leibert

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Demographic change is an uneven spatial process in Germany. Depopulation and ageing have become pressing issues in most rural regions. In connection with low population densities and the financial difficulties of municipalities and service providers in rural regions, these demographic trends have led to a discussion about the future provision of services of general interest and – more broadly – the postulate of equal living conditions which was for a long time the basic principle of spatial development in Germany. In this paper, we argue that the peripheralisation approach is a helpful tool to better understand how interaction of out-migration, dependence, disconnection and stigmatisation shape the future of rural regions. We also discuss the impact of peripheralisation on the development and implementation of adaptation strategies. Based on the 3R-model (retrenchment, repositioning, reorganisation, we argue that adaptation strategies can reinforce (retrenchment peripheralisation processes, but also serve as groundwork for the formulation of policies aiming at de-peripheralisation.

Global trends in research related to social media in psychology: mapping and bibliometric analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zyoud, Sa'ed H; Sweileh, Waleed M; Awang, Rahmat; Al-Jabi, Samah W

2018-01-01

Social media, defined as interactive Web applications, have been on the rise globally, particularly among adults. The objective of this study was to investigate the trend of the literature related to the most used social network worldwide (i.e. Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Snapchat, and Instagram) in the field of psychology. Specifically, this study will assess the growth in publications, citation analysis, international collaboration, author productivity, emerging topics and the mapping of frequent terms in publications pertaining to social media in the field of psychology. Publications related to social media in the field of psychology published between 2004 and 2014 were obtained from the Web of Science. The records extracted were analysed for bibliometric characteristics such as the growth in publications, citation analysis, international collaboration, emerging topics and the mapping of frequent terms in publications pertaining to social media in the field of psychology. VOSviewer v.1.6.5 was used to construct scientific maps. Overall, 959 publications were retrieved during the period between 2004 and 2015. The number of research publications in social media in the field of psychology showed a steady upward growth. Publications from the USA accounted for 57.14% of the total publications and the highest h -index (48).The most common document type was research articles (873; 91.03%). Over 99.06% of the publications were published in English. Computers in Human Behavior was the most prolific journal. The University of Wisconsin - Madison ranked first in terms of the total publications (n = 39). A visualisation analysis showed that personality psychology, experimental psychology, psychological risk factors, and developmental psychology were continual concerns of the research. This is the first study reporting the global trends in the research related to social media in the psychology field. Based on the raw data from the Web of Science, publication

Global research trends in West Nile virus from 1943 to 2016: a bibliometric analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Jabi, Samah W

2017-08-03

West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging infectious disease which is most commonly transmitted to humans through mosquito, and is considered a major public-health problem worldwide. The aim of the current study is to bibliometrically analyze the quantity and quality of publications indexed in Scopus from different countries to reveal the characteristics of global research output regarding WNV. This study is a bibliometric analysis based on the Scopus database. This study focused on identifying WNV publication trends with regard to publication year, publication type, prolific countries, language of publication, as well as, prolific journals, citations, and collaboration patterns. A total of 4729 publications were considered in this study, which were published between 1943 and 2016. The annual quantity of literature published before 2000 followed a low rate of research growth; while the quantity of publications after 2000 were published in a stage of rapid development. The country with the greatest number of publications in WNV research field was the USA with 2304 (48.7%) publications, followed by France with 224 (4.7%) publications, and Canada with 222 (4.7%) publications. Contributions from low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) were considerably small, that is, (n = 519 publications; 11%). All publications related to WNV achieved h-index of 140 and were cited 124,222 times. The median [interquartile range] number of citations per article thus amounts to 9 [2-28]. The USA had the highest h-index of 131. Emerging Infectious Diseases is the most productive journal with 227 articles, followed by Journal of Virology with 162 publications. The result designated that Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was ranked the first in terms of publication output, followed by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases. There is an obvious trend of WNV research after 2000, and countries with high income have more contributions in WNV research field. The

Global variations and time trends in the prevalence of childhood myopia, a systematic review and quantitative meta-analysis:implications for aetiology and early prevention

OpenAIRE

Rudnicka, Alicja R.; Kapetanakis, Venediktos V.; Wathern, Andrea K.; Logan, Nicola S.; Gilmartin, Bernard; Whincup, Peter H.; Cook, Derek G.; Owen, Christopher G.

2016-01-01

The aim of this review was to quantify the global variation in childhood myopia prevalence over time taking account of demographic and study design factors. A systematic review identified population-based surveys with estimates of childhood myopia prevalence published by February 2015. Multilevel binomial logistic regression of log odds of myopia was used to examine the association with age, gender, urban versus rural setting and survey year, among populations of different ethnic origins, adj...

Seabirds, gyres and global trends in plastic pollution.

Science.gov (United States)

van Franeker, Jan A; Law, Kara Lavender

2015-08-01

Fulmars are effective biological indicators of the abundance of floating plastic marine debris. Long-term data reveal high plastic abundance in the southern North Sea, gradually decreasing to the north at increasing distance from population centres, with lowest levels in high-arctic waters. Since the 1980s, pre-production plastic pellets in North Sea fulmars have decreased by ∼75%, while user plastics varied without a strong overall change. Similar trends were found in net-collected floating plastic debris in the North Atlantic subtropical gyre, with a ∼75% decrease in plastic pellets and no obvious trend in user plastic. The decreases in pellets suggest that changes in litter input are rapidly visible in the environment not only close to presumed sources, but also far from land. Floating plastic debris is rapidly "lost" from the ocean surface to other as-yet undetermined sinks in the marine environment. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Joint spatiotemporal variability of global sea surface temperatures and global Palmer drought severity index values

Science.gov (United States)

Apipattanavis, S.; McCabe, G.J.; Rajagopalan, B.; Gangopadhyay, S.

2009-01-01

Dominant modes of individual and joint variability in global sea surface temperatures (SST) and global Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) values for the twentieth century are identified through a multivariate frequency domain singular value decomposition. This analysis indicates that a secular trend and variability related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the dominant modes of variance shared among the global datasets. For the SST data the secular trend corresponds to a positive trend in Indian Ocean and South Atlantic SSTs, and a negative trend in North Pacific and North Atlantic SSTs. The ENSO reconstruction shows a strong signal in the tropical Pacific, North Pacific, and Indian Ocean regions. For the PDSI data, the secular trend reconstruction shows high amplitudes over central Africa including the Sahel, whereas the regions with strong ENSO amplitudes in PDSI are the southwestern and northwestern United States, South Africa, northeastern Brazil, central Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and Australia. An additional significant frequency, multidecadal variability, is identified for the Northern Hemisphere. This multidecadal frequency appears to be related to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The multidecadal frequency is statistically significant in the Northern Hemisphere SST data, but is statistically nonsignificant in the PDSI data.

Use of selected ambulatory dental services in Taiwan before and after global budgeting: a longitudinal study to identify trends in hospital and clinic-based services

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lin Chienhung

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Taiwan government adopted National Health Insurance (NHI in 1995, providing universal health care to all citizens. It was financed by mandatory premium contributions made by employers, employees, and the government. Since then, the government has faced increasing challenges to control NHI expenditures. The aim of this study was to determine trends in the provision of dental services in Taiwan after the implementation of global budgeting in 1998 and to identify areas of possible concern. Methods This longitudinal before/after study was based on data from the National Health Insurance Research Database from 1996 to 2001. These data were subjected to logistic regression analysis. Linear regression analysis was used to examine changes in delivery of specific services after global budgeting implementation. Utilization of hospital and clinic services was compared. Results Reimbursement for dental services increased significantly while the number of visits per patient remained steady in both hospitals and clinics. In hospitals, visits for root canal procedures, ionomer restoration, tooth extraction and tooth scaling increased significantly. In dental clinics, visits for amalgam restoration decreased significantly while those for ionomer restoration, tooth extraction, and tooth scaling increased significantly. After the adoption of global budgeting, expenditures for dental services increased dramatically while the number of visits per patient did not, indicating a possible shift in patients to hospital facilities that received additional National Health Insurance funding. Conclusions The identified trends indicate increased utilization of dental services and uneven distribution of care and dentists. These trends may be compromising the quality of dental care delivered in Taiwan.

A systematic review of global publication trends regarding long-term outcomes of ADHD.

Science.gov (United States)

Hodgkins, Paul; Arnold, L Eugene; Shaw, Monica; Caci, Hervé; Kahle, Jennifer; Woods, Alisa G; Young, Susan

2011-01-01

There is increased global recognition of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) as a serious medical condition with long-term consequences. Although originally conceived of as a childhood disorder, ADHD is being increasingly recognized in adults. Individual geographic regions may have specific interests and objectives for the study of ADHD. A systematic review of long-term outcomes (LTOs) in ADHD was conducted to evaluate research on ADHD LTOs on a global scale. Studies that were at least 2 years in duration were examined. A total of 351 studies were identified in the final analysis. We identified nine outcomes of interest and classified studies by specific geographical regions, age groups studied and study design by region and over time. Published studies of LTOs in ADHD have increased in all geographical regions over the past three decades, with a peak number of 42 publications in 2008. This rise in publications on ADHD LTOs may reflect a rise in global interest and recognition of consequences and impairment associated with ADHD. Although many world regions have published on ADHD LTOs, the majority of studies have emerged from the US and Canada, followed by Europe. While investigators in the US and Canada were predominantly interested in drug addiction as a LTO, European researchers were more interested in antisocial behavior, and Eastern Asian investigators focused on both of these LTOs as well as self-esteem. Geographical differences in the focus of ADHD LTO studies may reflect regional variations in cultural values. Proportionally fewer prospective longitudinal studies and proportionally more retrospective and cross-sectional studies have been published in more recent decades. Finally, more studies focusing on ADHD in adolescents and adults have been conducted in recent years, and particularly adolescents in Eastern Asia. These changes in basic study design may reflect an increase in the recognition that ADHD is a lifetime chronic disorder. This

A Systematic Review of Global Publication Trends Regarding Long-Term Outcomes of ADHD

Science.gov (United States)

Hodgkins, Paul; Arnold, L. Eugene; Shaw, Monica; Caci, Hervé; Kahle, Jennifer; Woods, Alisa G; Young, Susan

2012-01-01

There is increased global recognition of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) as a serious medical condition with long-term consequences. Although originally conceived of as a childhood disorder, ADHD is being increasingly recognized in adults. Individual geographic regions may have specific interests and objectives for the study of ADHD. A systematic review of long-term outcomes (LTOs) in ADHD was conducted to evaluate research on ADHD LTOs on a global scale. Studies that were at least 2 years in duration were examined. A total of 351 studies were identified in the final analysis. We identified nine outcomes of interest and classified studies by specific geographical regions, age groups studied and study design by region and over time. Published studies of LTOs in ADHD have increased in all geographical regions over the past three decades, with a peak number of 42 publications in 2008. This rise in publications on ADHD LTOs may reflect a rise in global interest and recognition of consequences and impairment associated with ADHD. Although many world regions have published on ADHD LTOs, the majority of studies have emerged from the US and Canada, followed by Europe. While investigators in the US and Canada were predominantly interested in drug addiction as a LTO, European researchers were more interested in antisocial behavior, and Eastern Asian investigators focused on both of these LTOs as well as self-esteem. Geographical differences in the focus of ADHD LTO studies may reflect regional variations in cultural values. Proportionally fewer prospective longitudinal studies and proportionally more retrospective and cross-sectional studies have been published in more recent decades. Finally, more studies focusing on ADHD in adolescents and adults have been conducted in recent years, and particularly adolescents in Eastern Asia. These changes in basic study design may reflect an increase in the recognition that ADHD is a lifetime chronic disorder. This

On the theory of global population growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kapitza, Sergei P

2010-01-01

Ours is an epoch of global demographic revolution, a time of a rapid transition from explosive population growth to a low reproduction level. This, possibly the most momentous change ever witnessed by humankind has, first and foremost, important implications for the dynamics of population. But it also affects billions of people in all aspects of their lives, and it is for this reason that demographic processes have grown into a vast problem, both globally and in Russia. Their fundamental understanding will to a large extent impact the present, the short-term future following the current critical epoch, the stable and uniform global development and its priorities, and indeed global security. Quantitative treatment of historical processes is reached using the phenomenological theory of mankind's population growth. This theory relies on the concepts and methods of physics and its conclusions should take into account the ideas of economics and genetics. (interdisciplinary physics)

Correlation of demographic-economic evolutions in Romania after the 2008 economic crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Litra, A. V.

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The paper aims to clarify the extent to which economic developments after 2008, largely due to the global economic crisis, have had an impact on demographic indicators in Romania. From the correlation analysis between the series of economic and demographic data (with a delay of one year, concluded that unemployment strongly influence live births and total fertility rate (especially for first-born, and in a medium measure the natural population change, and GDP is strongly correlated with the natural growth of the population, and medium correlated with the number of live births, total fertility rate and the number of marriages.

Fast or slow food? Explaining trends in food-related time in the Netherlands, 1975-2005

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mandemakers, J.J.; Roeters, A.

2015-01-01

The current study analysed trends in the time spent preparing and consuming food and the frequency of outsourcing (going out for dinner and take-out) in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2005. We investigated differences between trends on week and weekend days and for different socio-demographic groups.

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjerregaard, Peter; Andersen, Lars Bo; Bugge, Anna

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes...... in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. METHODS: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes...... prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes...

Trends in substance use admissions among older adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Chhatre, Sumedha; Cook, Ratna; Mallik, Eshita; Jayadevappa, Ravishankar

2017-08-22

Substance abuse is a growing, but mostly silent, epidemic among older adults. We sought to analyze the trends in admissions for substance abuse treatment among older adults (aged 55 and older). Treatment Episode Data Set - Admissions (TEDS-A) for period between 2000 and 2012 was used. The trends in admission for primary substances, demographic attributes, characteristics of substance abused and type of admission were analyzed. While total number of substance abuse treatment admissions between 2000 and 2012 changed slightly, proportion attributable to older adults increased from 3.4% to 7.0%. Substantial changes in the demographic, substance use pattern, and treatment characteristics for the older adult admissions were noted. Majority of the admissions were for alcohol as the primary substance. However there was a decreasing trend in this proportion (77% to 64%). The proportion of admissions for following primary substances showed increase: cocaine/crack, marijuana/hashish, heroin, non-prescription methadone, and other opiates and synthetics. Also, admissions for older adults increased between 2000 and 2012 for African Americans (21% to 28%), females (20% to 24%), high school graduates (63% to 75%), homeless (15% to 19%), unemployed (77% to 84%), and those with psychiatric problems (17% to 32%).The proportion of admissions with prior history of substance abuse treatment increased from 39% to 46% and there was an increase in the admissions where more than one problem substance was reported. Ambulatory setting continued to be the most frequent treatment setting, and individual (including self-referral) was the most common referral source. The use of medication assisted therapy remained low over the years (7% - 9%). The changing demographic and substance use pattern of older adults implies that a wide array of psychological, social, and physiological needs will arise. Integrated, multidisciplinary and tailored policies for prevention and treatment are necessary to

Demographic studies of Joshua trees in Mojave Desert National Parks: demography with emphasis on germination and recruitment

Science.gov (United States)

Esque, T.C.; Reynolds, B.; DeFalco, L.A.; Waitman, B.A.; Hughson, Debra

2010-01-01

The study of population change with regard to reproduction, seed dispersal, and germination, establishment, growth, and survival/mortality is known as demography. Demographic studies provide managers with information to assess future trends on the density, distribution, health, and population changes of importance or value, including Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia). Demographic research provides the potential to understand the combined impacts of climate change and land-use practices and determine if strategies for protecting important species are likely to succeed or fall short of management goals and will identify factors that have the potential to de-stabilize populations outside the realm of natural variation so that management strategies can be developed to circumvent challenges for key species, processes, and ecosystems. The National Park Service and US Geological Survey are collaborating to collect demographic information about the demographics of Joshua tree in the Mojave Desert.

Immunocompromised Travelers: Demographic Characteristics, Travel Destinations, and Pretravel Health Care from the U.S. Global TravEpiNet Consortium.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartz, Brian S; Rosen, Jessica; Han, Pauline V; Hynes, Noreen A; Hagmann, Stefan H; Rao, Sowmya R; Jentes, Emily S; Ryan, Edward T; LaRocque, Regina C

2015-11-01

An increasing number of immunocompromised individuals are pursuing international travel, and a better understanding of their international travel patterns and pretravel health care is needed. We evaluated the clinical features, itineraries, and pretravel health care of 486 immunocompromised international travelers seen at Global TravEpiNet sites from January 2009 to June 2012. We used bivariate analyses and logistic regressions using random intercept models to compare demographic and travel characteristics, vaccines administered, and medications prescribed for immunocompromised travelers versus 30,702 immunocompetent travelers. Immunocompromised travelers pursued itineraries that were largely similar to those of immunocompetent travelers, with nearly one-third of such travelers visiting countries with low human development indices. Biological agents, including tumor necrosis factor blockers, were commonly used immunosuppressive medications among immunocompromised travelers. A strong collaboration between travel-medicine specialists, primary care doctors, and specialist physicians is needed to prepare immunocompromised people for international travel. Incorporating routine questioning and planning regarding travel into the primary care visits of immunocompromised people may be useful. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Trends and inequities in where women delivered their babies in 25 low-income countries: evidence from Demographic and Health Surveys.

Science.gov (United States)

Limwattananon, Supon; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj; Sirilak, Supakit

2011-05-01

In low-income countries, the coverage of institutional births is low. Using data from the two most recent Demographic and Health Surveys (1995-2001 and 2001-2006) for 25 low-income countries, this study examined trends in where women delivered their babies--public or private facilities or non-institutional settings. More than half of deliveries were in institutional settings in ten countries, mostly public facilities. In the other 15 countries, the majority of births were in women's homes, which was often their only option. Between the two survey periods, all five Asian countries studied (except Bangladesh) had an increase of 10-20 percentage points in institutional coverage, whereas none of the 19 sub-Saharan African countries saw an increase of more than 10 percentage points. More urban women and more in the richest (least poor) quintile gave birth in public or private facilities than rural and poorest quintile women. The rich-poor gap of institutional births was wider than the urban-rural gap. Inadequate public investment in health system infrastructure in rural areas and lack of skilled health professionals are major obstacles in reducing maternal mortality. Governments in low-income countries must invest more, especially in rural maternity services. Strengthening private, for-profit providers is not a policy choice for poor, rural communities. Copyright © 2011 Reproductive Health Matters. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Food Environments: What is the Role of Demographics in Figians' Decision Making Related to Food Choice and Overall Nutrition Behavior

OpenAIRE

Bradshaw, Sandra

2013-01-01

Due to the recent increased quantity of nutrition-related diseases worldwide, current research recommends exploring environmental factors that influence this trend. The Islands of Fiji are of particular concern because of the growing number of non- communicable diseases. On the same small island, nutrition problems vary according to demographic. Thus, the different environments of each demographic constitute diverse food environments, which are manifested in varied nutrition concerns. This st...

Global Change and Helminth Infections in Grazing Ruminants in Europe: Impacts, Trends and Sustainable Solutions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hubertus Hertzberg

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Infections with parasitic helminths (nematodes and trematodes represent a significant economic and welfare burden to the global ruminant livestock industry. The increasing prevalence of anthelmintic resistance means that current control programmes are costly and unsustainable in the long term. Recent changes in the epidemiology, seasonality and geographic distribution of helminth infections have been attributed to climate change. However, other changes in environment (e.g., land use and in livestock farming, such as intensification and altered management practices, will also have an impact on helminth infections. Sustainable control of helminth infections in a changing world requires detailed knowledge of these interactions. In particular, there is a need to devise new, sustainable strategies for the effective control of ruminant helminthoses in the face of global change. In this paper, we consider the impact of helminth infections in grazing ruminants, taking a European perspective, and identify scientific and applied priorities to mitigate these impacts. These include the development and deployment of efficient, high-throughput diagnostic tests to support targeted intervention, modelling of geographic and seasonal trends in infection, more thorough economic data and analysis of the impact of helminth infections and greater translation and involvement of end-users in devising and disseminating best practices. Complex changes in helminth epidemiology will require innovative solutions. By developing and using new technologies and models, the use of anthelmintics can be optimised to limit the development and spread of drug resistance and to reduce the overall economic impact of helminth infections. This will be essential to the continued productivity and profitability of livestock farming in Europe and its contribution to regional and global food security.

Global trends of greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akimoto, H.

1992-01-01

This paper reports that the earth is a closed system in which atmosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere are inter-related by exchanging energy and chemical species. Mankind in itself is a member of biosphere, and is to be harmonized with the earth system. Accompanying the increase of population and energy consumption after the industrial revolution, however, the impact of human activities to the system exceeded the extent of the expected harmonization, which has resulted the global environmental pollution. The structure of the global atmospheric environment system perturbed by the impact of human activities would be summarized

A human-driven decline in global burned area.

Science.gov (United States)

Andela, N; Morton, D C; Giglio, L; Chen, Y; van der Werf, G R; Kasibhatla, P S; DeFries, R S; Collatz, G J; Hantson, S; Kloster, S; Bachelet, D; Forrest, M; Lasslop, G; Li, F; Mangeon, S; Melton, J R; Yue, C; Randerson, J T

2017-06-30

Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

Demographics and macroeconomic effects in aesthetic surgery in the UK.

Science.gov (United States)

Duncan, C O; Ho-Asjoe, M; Hittinger, R; Nishikawa, H; Waterhouse, N; Coghlan, B; Jones, B

2004-09-01

Media interest in aesthetic surgery is substantial and suggestions of demographic changes such as reductions in age or an increase in the number of male patients are common. In spite of this, there is no peer reviewed literature reporting demographics of a contemporary large patient cohort or of the effect of macroeconomic indicators on aesthetic surgery in the UK. In this study, computer records 13006 patients presenting between 1998 and the first quarter of 2003 at a significant aesthetic surgery centre were analysed for procedures undergone, patient age and sex. Male to female ratios for each procedure were calculated and a comparison was made between unit activity and macroeconomic indicators. The results showed that there has been no significant demographic change in the procedures studied with patient age and male to female ratio remaining constant throughout the period studied for each procedure. Comparison with macroeconomic indicators suggested increasing demand for aesthetic surgery in spite of a global recession. In conclusion, media reports of large scale demographic shifts in aesthetic surgery patients are exaggerated. The stability of unit activity in spite of falling national economic indicators suggested that some units in the UK might be relatively immune to economic vagaries. The implications for training are discussed.

Trends of 13C/12C ratios in pinyon tree rings of the American Southwest and the global carbon cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leavitt, S.W.; Long, A.

1986-01-01

An accurate atmospheric 13 C/ 12 C chronology can provide important constraints to models of the global carbon cycle. Trees accumulate carbon from atmospheric CO 2 into growth rings and offer potential for 13 C/ 12 C reconstructions, but results have not been reproducible. This paper presents δ 13 C curves from 5 sites, representing 20 pinyon (Pinus edulis) trees, where cores of 4 trees from each site have been pooled into a composite sample. Isotopic analysis of cellulose in 5-yr ring groups produces curves with a general trend of decreasing δ 13 C after 1800, but with pronounced short-term fluctuations superimposed upon the trend. Evidence indicates the fluctuations are strongly related to moisture availability (drought). A mean curve of the 5 δ 13 C chronologies from which the fossil-fuel component is subtracted suggests a substantial biospheric CO 2 contribution to the atmosphere since 1800

Globalization and deepening rural poverty in contemporary Sub ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Globalization and deepening rural poverty in contemporary Sub-Saharan ... the issue of globalization and economic integration of world countries has been the ... to globalization trend it is important to examine how globalization impacts on ...

Measuring global trends in the status of biodiversity: red list indices for birds.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stuart H M Butchart

2004-12-01

Full Text Available The rapid destruction of the planet's biodiversity has prompted the nations of the world to set a target of achieving a significant reduction in the rate of loss of biodiversity by 2010. However, we do not yet have an adequate way of monitoring progress towards achieving this target. Here we present a method for producing indices based on the IUCN Red List to chart the overall threat status (projected relative extinction risk of all the world's bird species from 1988 to 2004. Red List Indices (RLIs are based on the number of species in each Red List category, and on the number changing categories between assessments as a result of genuine improvement or deterioration in status. The RLI for all bird species shows that their overall threat status has continued to deteriorate since 1988. Disaggregated indices show that deteriorations have occurred worldwide and in all major ecosystems, but with particularly steep declines in the indices for Indo-Malayan birds (driven by intensifying deforestation of the Sundaic lowlands and for albatrosses and petrels (driven by incidental mortality in commercial longline fisheries. RLIs complement indicators based on species population trends and habitat extent for quantifying global trends in the status of biodiversity. Their main weaknesses are that the resolution of status changes is fairly coarse and that delays may occur before some status changes are detected. Their greatest strength is that they are based on information from nearly all species in a taxonomic group worldwide, rather than a potentially biased subset. At present, suitable data are only available for birds, but indices for other taxonomic groups are in development, as is a sampled index based on a stratified sample from all major taxonomic groups.

Fast or slow food? Explaining trends in food-related time in the Netherlands, 1975–2005

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mandemakers, Jornt; Roeters, Anne|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304837865

2015-01-01

The current study analysed trends in the time spent preparing and consuming food and the frequency of outsourcing (going out for dinner and take-out) in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2005. We investigated differences between trends on week and weekend days and for different socio-demographic groups.

Socio-demographic predictors of sleep complaints in indigenous Siberians with a mixed economy.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Hannah J; Klimova, Tatiana M; Knuston, Kristen L; Fedorova, Valentina I; Fedorov, Afanasy; Yegorovna, Baltakhinova M; Leonard, William R

2015-08-01

Socio-demographic indicators closely relate to sleep in industrialized populations. However we know very little about how such factors impact sleep in populations undergoing industrialization. Within populations transitioning to the global economy, the preliminary evidence has found an inconsistent relationship between socio-demographics and sleep complaints across countries and social strata. Surveys were conducted on a sample of rural Sakha (Yakut) adults (n = 168) during the autumn of 2103 to assess variation in socio-demographics and sleep complaints, including trouble sleeping and daytime sleepiness. Socio-demographic variables included age, gender, socioeconomic measures, and markers of traditional/market-based lifestyle. We tested whether the socio-demographic variables predicted sleep complaints using bivariate analyses and multiple logistic regressions. Trouble sleeping was reported by 18.5% of the participants and excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) by 17.3%. Trouble sleeping was significantly predicted by older age, female gender, and mixing traditional and market-based lifestyles. EDS was not significantly predicted by any socio-demographic variable. These findings support the few large-scale studies that found inconsistent relationships between measures of socioeconomic status and sleep complaints in transitioning populations. Employing a mix of traditional and market-based lifestyles may leave Sakha in a space of vulnerability, leading to trouble sleeping. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Global Changes of the Water Cycle Intensity

Science.gov (United States)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Walker, Gregory K.

2003-01-01

In this study, we evaluate numerical simulations of the twentieth century climate, focusing on the changes in the intensity of the global water cycle. A new diagnostic of atmospheric water vapor cycling rate is developed and employed, that relies on constituent tracers predicted at the model time step. This diagnostic is compared to a simplified traditional calculation of cycling rate, based on monthly averages of precipitation and total water content. The mean sensitivity of both diagnostics to variations in climate forcing is comparable. However, the new diagnostic produces systematically larger values and more variability than the traditional average approach. Climate simulations were performed using SSTs of the early (1902-1921) and late (1979- 1998) twentieth century along with the appropriate C02 forcing. In general, the increase of global precipitation with the increases in SST that occurred between the early and late twentieth century is small. However, an increase of atmospheric temperature leads to a systematic increase in total precipitable water. As a result, the residence time of water in the atmosphere increased, indicating a reduction of the global cycling rate. This result was explored further using a number of 50-year climate simulations from different models forced with observed SST. The anomalies and trends in the cycling rate and hydrologic variables of different GCMs are remarkably similar. The global annual anomalies of precipitation show a significant upward trend related to the upward trend of surface temperature, during the latter half of the twentieth century. While this implies an increase in the hydrologic cycle intensity, a concomitant increase of total precipitable water again leads to a decrease in the calculated global cycling rate. An analysis of the land/sea differences shows that the simulated precipitation over land has a decreasing trend while the oceanic precipitation has an upward trend consistent with previous studies and the

Religious affiliation at time of death - Global estimates and projections.

Science.gov (United States)

Skirbekk, Vegard; Todd, Megan; Stonawski, Marcin

2018-03-01

Religious affiliation influences societal practices regarding death and dying, including palliative care, religiously acceptable health service procedures, funeral rites and beliefs about an afterlife. We aimed to estimate and project religious affiliation at the time of death globally, as this information has been lacking. We compiled data on demographic information and religious affiliation from more than 2500 surveys, registers and censuses covering 198 nations/territories. We present estimates of religious affiliation at the time of death as of 2010, projections up to and including 2060, taking into account trends in mortality, religious conversion, intergenerational transmission of religion, differential fertility, and gross migration flows, by age and sex. We find that Christianity continues to be the most common religion at death, although its share will fall from 37% to 31% of global deaths between 2010 and 2060. The share of individuals identifying as Muslim at the time of death increases from 21% to 24%. The share of religiously unaffiliated will peak at 17% in 2035 followed by a slight decline thereafter. In specific regions, such as Europe, the unaffiliated share will continue to rises from 14% to 21% throughout the period. Religious affiliation at the time of death is changing globally, with distinct regional patterns. This could affect spatial variation in healthcare and social customs relating to death and dying.

Globalization of Management Education

Science.gov (United States)

Bruner, Robert F.; Iannarelli, Juliane

2011-01-01

A new study, sponsored by the Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business, presented a comprehensive new perspective on the globalization of management education, (AACSB International, 2011). Its findings are sobering: with regard to emerging global trends in higher education and cross-border business, the report reveals a sizable gap…

OLD AND NEW ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION

OpenAIRE

Elena MĂRGULESCU

2015-01-01

The retrospective of the theoretical approaches of the phenomenon of economic globalization in the last three decades emphasizes the movement of attention from the globalization of markets, from the'80s, to the globalization of production and services in the current decade. This trend is essentially the result of implementing new strategies by multinational and transnational companies. We try in this context to draw a line between the "globalization of markets" and the "globalization of produ...

Global trends in antimicrobial use in food animals

Science.gov (United States)

Van Boeckel, Thomas P.; Brower, Charles; Gilbert, Marius; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Levin, Simon A.; Robinson, Timothy P.; Teillant, Aude; Laxminarayan, Ramanan

2015-01-01

Demand for animal protein for human consumption is rising globally at an unprecedented rate. Modern animal production practices are associated with regular use of antimicrobials, potentially increasing selection pressure on bacteria to become resistant. Despite the significant potential consequences for antimicrobial resistance, there has been no quantitative measurement of global antimicrobial consumption by livestock. We address this gap by using Bayesian statistical models combining maps of livestock densities, economic projections of demand for meat products, and current estimates of antimicrobial consumption in high-income countries to map antimicrobial use in food animals for 2010 and 2030. We estimate that the global average annual consumption of antimicrobials per kilogram of animal produced was 45 mg⋅kg−1, 148 mg⋅kg−1, and 172 mg⋅kg−1 for cattle, chicken, and pigs, respectively. Starting from this baseline, we estimate that between 2010 and 2030, the global consumption of antimicrobials will increase by 67%, from 63,151 ± 1,560 tons to 105,596 ± 3,605 tons. Up to a third of the increase in consumption in livestock between 2010 and 2030 is imputable to shifting production practices in middle-income countries where extensive farming systems will be replaced by large-scale intensive farming operations that routinely use antimicrobials in subtherapeutic doses. For Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the increase in antimicrobial consumption will be 99%, up to seven times the projected population growth in this group of countries. Better understanding of the consequences of the uninhibited growth in veterinary antimicrobial consumption is needed to assess its potential effects on animal and human health. PMID:25792457

Trends in Australian government health expenditure by age: a fiscal incidence analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Tapper, Alan; Phillimore, John

2014-11-01

Australian government health expenditure per capita has grown steadily across the past few decades, but little is known about trends in the age distribution of health expenditure. In this paper, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) fiscal incidence studies, which track expenditure at the household level between 1984 and 2010, are used to shed light on this topic. The main finding was that spending has shifted focus from the younger half to the older half of the population. This shift is evident in three areas: (1) acute care (hospitals); (2) community health services (doctors); and (3) pharmaceuticals. Together, these areas account for approximately 88% of expenditure. The trend is independent of demographic aging. It is unlikely to reflect changes in population health. Its explanation is open to debate. Growth in expenditure per household has been more than threefold faster for elderly than young households. Across this period, expenditure per household per week has increased by 51% for the young, by 79% for the middle aged and by 179% for the elderly. This age-related growth is most prominent in expenditure on acute care, community health services and pharmaceuticals. WHAT IS KNOWN ABOUT THE TOPIC?: The Productivity Commission has published figures that relate age and Australian heath expenditure. However, there has been no published study of age-related trends in Australian health expenditure. WHAT DOES THIS PAPER ADD?: In addition to tracking age-related trends across 26 years, this paper adds a breakdown of those trends into four categories of expenditure, namely acute care, community health services, pharmaceutical benefits, and other. This breakdown shows that the trends vary by expenditure type. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTITIONERS?: The paper shows that forward projections in health expenditure need to take into account age-related trends as well as demographic trends.

Prevalence and Trends in Domestic Violence in South Korea: Findings From National Surveys.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Jae Yop; Oh, Sehun; Nam, Seok In

2016-05-01

To examine trends in the prevalence of domestic violence since 1997, 1 year prior to the introduction of legislative countermeasures and accompanying services in South Korea, and to analyze what socio-demographic characteristics of perpetrators contribute to spousal violence and whether there were any changes in risk factors over time. This study used two sets of nationally representative household samples: married or cohabiting couples of 1,540 from the 1999 national survey and 3,269 from the 2010 National Survey of Domestic Violence. Frequency analysis was used to measure the prevalence of intimate partner violence (IPV), and cross-tabulation, correlation, and logistic regression analyses were used to look for socio-demographic risk factors of spousal physical violence and patterns of change over time. The frequency analysis showed that the IPV prevalence dropped by approximately 50%, from 34.1% in 1999 to 16.5% in 2010, though it was still higher than many other countries. The cross-tabulation and logistic regression analyses suggested that men with low socio-demographic characteristics were generally more violent, though this tendency did not apply to women. Instead, younger women seemed to be more violent than older women. Last, different levels of household income were associated with different levels of IPV in 2010, but no linear trend was detected. In this study, IPV prevalence trends and risk factors of two different time periods were discussed to provide implications for tackling the IPV problem. Future countermeasures must build on understanding about men with low socio-demographic status and younger women, who were more violent in marital relationships. © The Author(s) 2015.

Recent trends and drivers of regional sources and sinks of carbon dioxide

Science.gov (United States)

Sitch, S.; Friedlingstein, P.; Gruber, N.; Jones, S. D.; Murray-Tortarolo, G.; Ahlström, A.; Doney, S. C.; Graven, H.; Heinze, C.; Huntingford, C.; Levis, S.; Levy, P. E.; Lomas, M.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.; Zaehle, S.; Zeng, N.; Arneth, A.; Bonan, G.; Bopp, L.; Canadell, J. G.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Ellis, R.; Gloor, M.; Peylin, P.; Piao, S. L.; Le Quéré, C.; Smith, B.; Zhu, Z.; Myneni, R.

2015-02-01

The land and ocean absorb on average just over half of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) every year. These CO2 "sinks" are modulated by climate change and variability. Here we use a suite of nine dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and four ocean biogeochemical general circulation models (OBGCMs) to estimate trends driven by global and regional climate and atmospheric CO2 in land and oceanic CO2 exchanges with the atmosphere over the period 1990-2009, to attribute these trends to underlying processes in the models, and to quantify the uncertainty and level of inter-model agreement. The models were forced with reconstructed climate fields and observed global atmospheric CO2; land use and land cover changes are not included for the DGVMs. Over the period 1990-2009, the DGVMs simulate a mean global land carbon sink of -2.4 ± 0.7 Pg C yr-1 with a small significant trend of -0.06 ± 0.03 Pg C yr-2 (increasing sink). Over the more limited period 1990-2004, the ocean models simulate a mean ocean sink of -2.2 ± 0.2 Pg C yr-1 with a trend in the net C uptake that is indistinguishable from zero (-0.01 ± 0.02 Pg C yr-2). The two ocean models that extended the simulations until 2009 suggest a slightly stronger, but still small, trend of -0.02 ± 0.01 Pg C yr-2. Trends from land and ocean models compare favourably to the land greenness trends from remote sensing, atmospheric inversion results, and the residual land sink required to close the global carbon budget. Trends in the land sink are driven by increasing net primary production (NPP), whose statistically significant trend of 0.22 ± 0.08 Pg C yr-2 exceeds a significant trend in heterotrophic respiration of 0.16 ± 0.05 Pg C yr-2 - primarily as a consequence of widespread CO2 fertilisation of plant production. Most of the land-based trend in simulated net carbon uptake originates from natural ecosystems in the tropics (-0.04 ± 0.01 Pg C yr-2), with almost no trend over the northern land region

The demographic transition influences variance in fitness and selection on height and BMI in rural Gambia.

Science.gov (United States)

Courtiol, Alexandre; Rickard, Ian J; Lummaa, Virpi; Prentice, Andrew M; Fulford, Anthony J C; Stearns, Stephen C

2013-05-20

Recent human history is marked by demographic transitions characterized by declines in mortality and fertility. By influencing the variance in those fitness components, demographic transitions can affect selection on other traits. Parallel to changes in selection triggered by demography per se, relationships between fitness and anthropometric traits are also expected to change due to modification of the environment. Here we explore for the first time these two main evolutionary consequences of demographic transitions using a unique data set containing survival, fertility, and anthropometric data for thousands of women in rural Gambia from 1956-2010. We show how the demographic transition influenced directional selection on height and body mass index (BMI). We observed a change in selection for both traits mediated by variation in fertility: selection initially favored short females with high BMI values but shifted across the demographic transition to favor tall females with low BMI values. We demonstrate that these differences resulted both from changes in fitness variance that shape the strength of selection and from shifts in selective pressures triggered by environmental changes. These results suggest that demographic and environmental trends encountered by current human populations worldwide are likely to modify, but not stop, natural selection in humans. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global cardiovascular research output, citations, and collaborations: a time-trend, bibliometric analysis (1999-2008).

Science.gov (United States)

Huffman, Mark D; Baldridge, Abigail; Bloomfield, Gerald S; Colantonio, Lisandro D; Prabhakaran, Poornima; Ajay, Vamadevan S; Suh, Sarah; Lewison, Grant; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj

2013-01-01

Health research is one mechanism to improve population-level health and should generally match the health needs of populations. However, there have been limited data to assess the trends in national-level cardiovascular research output, even as cardiovascular disease [CVD] has become the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. We performed a time trends analysis of cardiovascular research publications (1999-2008) downloaded from Web of Knowledge using a iteratively-tested cardiovascular bibliometric filter with >90% precision and recall. We evaluated cardiovascular research publications, five-year running actual citation indices [ACIs], and degree of international collaboration measured through the ratio of the fractional count of addresses from one country against all addresses for each publication. Global cardiovascular publication volume increased from 40 661 publications in 1999 to 55 284 publications in 2008, which represents a 36% increase. The proportion of cardiovascular publications from high-income, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [OECD] countries declined from 93% to 84% of the total share over the study period. High-income, OECD countries generally had higher fractional counts, which suggest less international collaboration, than lower income countries from 1999-2008. There was an inverse relationship between cardiovascular publications and age-standardized CVD morbidity and mortality rates, but a direct, curvilinear relationship between cardiovascular publications and Human Development Index from 1999-2008. Cardiovascular health research output has increased substantially in the past decade, with a greater share of citations being published from low- and middle-income countries. However, low- and middle-income countries with the higher burdens of cardiovascular disease continue to have lower research output than high-income countries, and thus require targeted research investments to improve cardiovascular health.

Diversity, globalization and the ways of nature

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anton, D.J.

1995-11-01

During the last few years, technological advances and the reorganization of the international framework of economies, societies, and states have brought about profound changes with widespread socioeconomic effects. This book reviews global trends and their effects on the environment and on reducing global diversity. These trends include the information revolution, development of global financial markets and of more efficient international transport, and international migration. Environmental consequences noted include global pollution, deforestation, water shortages, and destruction of large ecosystems. The author uses examples from Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean to illustrate the history of environmental degradation and its relation to globalization. He also discusses the importance of clean energy for planetary survival, the urban environmental challenge, the importance of diversity for human survival, and strategies for the future.

Medico-demographic criteria in estimating the consequences of the Chernobyl accident

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Linge, I I; Melikhova, I A; Pavlovski, O [Nuclear Safety Inst., Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation)

1997-09-01

Correct comparison of population statistics in affected and unaffected areas prior to and after the accident allows to detect any noticeable deviations in basic medico-demographic parameters in contaminated territories from common trends. In view of that when in 1990 in Nuclear Safety Institute a start has been made on construction of an information support system for government and regional executives to overcome the consequences of the Chernobyl disaster a specialized data bank on demography and medical statistics (MDBD) was created. 12 refs, 7 figs, 8 tabs.

Medico-demographic criteria in estimating the consequences of the Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linge, I.I.; Melikhova, I.A.; Pavlovski, O.

1997-01-01

Correct comparison of population statistics in affected and unaffected areas prior to and after the accident allows to detect any noticeable deviations in basic medico-demographic parameters in contaminated territories from common trends. In view of that when in 1990 in Nuclear Safety Institute a start has been made on construction of an information support system for government and regional executives to overcome the consequences of the Chernobyl disaster a specialized data bank on demography and medical statistics (MDBD) was created. 12 refs, 7 figs, 8 tabs

Association Between Student Loan Debt on Graduation, Demographic Characteristics and Initial Choice of Practice Setting of Pharmacists

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akeem A. Yusuf

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Objectives: (1 To examine trends in level of student loan indebtedness for groups of pharmacists that were first licensed between 1980 and 2006; (2 To examine if demographic variables are associated with level of student loan indebtedness; (3 To examine the association between student loan debt and choice of practice setting while controlling for demographic variables. Methods: Data for this study were collected from a national random sample of 3,000 pharmacists using a self administered survey. Descriptive statistics were used to examine trends in level of indebtedness. The relationships between level of indebtedness, demographic variables and practice setting choice were examined using Chi-square statistics. Multinomial logistic regression was used to determine the independent association of student loan debt and choice of practice setting while controlling for demographic variables. Results: The proportion of licensed pharmacists reporting student loan debt after graduation, and the mean amount of debt incurred increased between 1980 and 2006. Non-white pharmacists incurred debt at a higher proportion compared to white, and they also incurred significantly higher levels of debt. A lower level of indebtedness was associated with choosing independent practice over chain practice. Conclusions: Student loan indebtedness has been increasing over time, especially for non-white pharmacy students. Future research should be done to examine other factors that might influence student debt load, work contributions and choice of practice settings. The affordability of pharmacy education for students of color and how salaries may or may not help off-set these costs also should be examined closely.   Type: Original Research

Applying of modern development trends in the firm of the world class

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Teplická Katarína

2004-06-01

Full Text Available The main goal all the world is situated to the nature of the excellent firm. The global business is orientated to increase the quality of product, to decrease the costs in the firm, to rise productivity, to reduce times between order and delivery et cetera. Every firm can obtain those conditions by a new trends on business. The implementation of the modern trends brings a lots advantages for the firm, that the firm becomes competitveable on the global business. This paper decribes the new modern trends which are used on business today.

Employee Development in Small and Medium Enterprises in the Light of Demographic Evolution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hana Urbancová

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Trends in the job market taking worker knowledge, abilities and skills into account show that the demand for qualified, experienced workers has been rising and that the trend will continue into the future. Accordingly, companies must put a life-long learning and development strategy in place so that even older employees (55+, the proportion of whom has been rising in organizations and in the marketplace, may maintain their positions in the job market for as long as possible. This paper aims to assess how small and medium enterprises in the Czech Republic reflect current demographic developments in terms of age management support and employee development. The data was obtained from small and medium enterprises in the Czech Republic (n = 432. The results show that age management is not an official primary focus of small and medium enterprises; but they naturally act in line with age management practices nevertheless. Any efficient solution to demographic development in the enterprises studied here, however, must be based upon an overall change of attitude coming from both entrepreneurs and company leadership focusing on young employees, as well as older employees themselves, where their ability to pass on their experience to younger coworkers is stressed. To maintain economic prosperity, continuous development is important for both categories.

The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus.

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

2015-11-16

Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes.

The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

2015-01-01

Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes. PMID:26568024

Global Surface Warming Hiatus Analysis Data

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data were used to conduct the study of the global surface warming hiatus, an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998....

New developments in demographic targeting--the implications of 1991.

Science.gov (United States)

Humby, C R

1989-01-01

This paper examines benefits that systems such as ACORN, a demographic marketing system that classifies neighborhoods, offer today and monitors some of the trends. It then considers the impact of the 1992 UK census and gives a view of what marketeers can expect in the next 5 years. Neighborhood classifications represent a summary of the consumption patterns of a set of neighbors. If we could reach individuals based on the current life stage the gains to be had would be as great again as that offered by the neighborhood classifications themselves. The greatest weakness of all the neighborhood-based systems is their inability to target at life stage or age.

Demographic implications of socioeconomic transition among the tribal populations of Manipur, India.

Science.gov (United States)

Hemam, N S; Reddy, B M

1998-06-01

The demographic implications of socioeconomic transition are studied among the three subsistence categories of the Gangte, a little known tribe from northeast India. Reproductive histories of 444 ever-married women and other data on the 343 households from which these women were drawn were collected from 11 villages representing the 3 transitional groups. A trend of increasing household income and literacy of couples was observed from shifting cultivators to settled agriculturists to the town-dwelling Gangte. The effect of socioeconomic transition is also seen in the constriction at the base of the age-sex pyramid of the town dwellers compared with the other subsistence categories, suggesting a relatively lower proportion of children in the 0-5-year-old age group. Although exogamy is practiced among all the subsistence categories, a considerably higher percentage of admixture with non-Gangte is observed among the town dwellers compared with the others. Overall infant and child mortality among the Gangte is low. However, variation exists among the three subsistence groups in the sense that a considerable reduction is seen from the traditional shifting cultivators to the urbanized town dwellers, reflecting better socioeconomic conditions and greater awareness and accessibility of the town dwellers to public health amenities. No consistent or perceptible trend is evident in mean number of live births. The genetic implications of this demographic transition are reflected in Crow's indexes of selection.

Social and demographic drivers of trend and seasonality in elective abortions in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bruckner, Tim A.; Mortensen, Laust H.; Catalano, Ralph A.

2017-01-01

Background: Elective abortions show a secular decline in high income countries. That general pattern, however, may mask meaningful differences—and a potentially rising trend—among age, income, and other racial/ethnic groups. We explore these differences in Denmark, a high-income, low-fertility co......Background: Elective abortions show a secular decline in high income countries. That general pattern, however, may mask meaningful differences—and a potentially rising trend—among age, income, and other racial/ethnic groups. We explore these differences in Denmark, a high-income, low...... in Denmark may signal important social and cultural impediments to contraception. The summer peak in abortions among low-income women, moreover, conflicts with the conventional assumption that the social and demographic composition of mothers who electively end their pregnancy remains stable within...

Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where.

Science.gov (United States)

Henson, Stephanie A; Beaulieu, Claudie; Lampitt, Richard

2016-04-01

Understanding the influence of anthropogenic forcing on the marine biosphere is a high priority. Climate change-driven trends need to be accurately assessed and detected in a timely manner. As part of the effort towards detection of long-term trends, a network of ocean observatories and time series stations provide high quality data for a number of key parameters, such as pH, oxygen concentration or primary production (PP). Here, we use an ensemble of global coupled climate models to assess the temporal and spatial scales over which observations of eight biogeochemically relevant variables must be made to robustly detect a long-term trend. We find that, as a global average, continuous time series are required for between 14 (pH) and 32 (PP) years to distinguish a climate change trend from natural variability. Regional differences are extensive, with low latitudes and the Arctic generally needing shorter time series (ocean surface. Our results present a quantitative framework for assessing the adequacy of current and future ocean observing networks for detection and monitoring of climate change-driven responses in the marine ecosystem. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Personal trainer demographics, current practice trends and common trainee injuries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gregory R. Waryasz

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Increasing emphasis on maintaining a healthy lifestyle has led many individuals to seek advice on exercise from personal trainers. There are few studies to date that evaluate personal trainer education, practice trends, and injuries they have seen while training clients. A survey was distributed to personal trainers using Survey Monkey® (Palo Alto, CA, USA with 605 personal trainers accessing the survey. An exercise related bachelor’s degree was held by 64.2% of survey participants and a certification in personal training by 89.0%. The most common personal trainer certifications were from American College of Sports Medicine (59.2% and National Strength and Conditioning Association (28.9%. Only 2.9% of all personal trainers surveyed had no exercise-related bachelor’s degree and no personal trainer certification. The most common injuries seen by personal trainers during sessions were lumbar muscle strain (10.7%, rotator cuff tear/tendonitis (8.9%, shin splints (8.1%, ankle sprain (7.5%, and cervical muscle strain (7.4%. There is variability in the practices between different personal trainers when analyzing differences in collegiate education, personal trainer certifications, and strength and conditioning certifications. The clinical implication of the differences in practices is unknown as to the impact on injuries or exercise prescription effectiveness.

Personal Trainer Demographics, Current Practice Trends and Common Trainee Injuries

Science.gov (United States)

Waryasz, Gregory R.; Daniels, Alan H.; Gil, Joseph A.; Suric, Vladimir; Eberson, Craig P.

2016-01-01

Increasing emphasis on maintaining a healthy lifestyle has led many individuals to seek advice on exercise from personal trainers. There are few studies to date that evaluate personal trainer education, practice trends, and injuries they have seen while training clients. A survey was distributed to personal trainers using Survey Monkey® (Palo Alto, CA, USA) with 605 personal trainers accessing the survey. An exercise related bachelor’s degree was held by 64.2% of survey participants and a certification in personal training by 89.0%. The most common personal trainer certifications were from American College of Sports Medicine (59.2%) and National Strength and Conditioning Association (28.9%). Only 2.9% of all personal trainers surveyed had no exercise-related bachelor’s degree and no personal trainer certification. The most common injuries seen by personal trainers during sessions were lumbar muscle strain (10.7%), rotator cuff tear/tendonitis (8.9%), shin splints (8.1%), ankle sprain (7.5%), and cervical muscle strain (7.4%). There is variability in the practices between different personal trainers when analyzing differences in collegiate education, personal trainer certifications, and strength and conditioning certifications. The clinical implication of the differences in practices is unknown as to the impact on injuries or exercise prescription effectiveness. PMID:27761219

Global Warming Estimation from MSU

Science.gov (United States)

Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, Robert, Jr.

1999-01-01

In this study, we have developed time series of global temperature from 1980-97 based on the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 (53.74 GHz) observations taken from polar-orbiting NOAA operational satellites. In order to create these time series, systematic errors (approx. 0.1 K) in the Ch 2 data arising from inter-satellite differences are removed objectively. On the other hand, smaller systematic errors (approx. 0.03 K) in the data due to orbital drift of each satellite cannot be removed objectively. Such errors are expected to remain in the time series and leave an uncertainty in the inferred global temperature trend. With the help of a statistical method, the error in the MSU inferred global temperature trend resulting from orbital drifts and residual inter-satellite differences of all satellites is estimated to be 0.06 K decade. Incorporating this error, our analysis shows that the global temperature increased at a rate of 0.13 +/- 0.06 K decade during 1980-97.

Economic implications of climate-driven trends in global hydropower generation

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, S. W. D.; Galelli, S.; Hejazi, M. I.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Kim, S. H.

2017-12-01

Recent progress in global scale hydrological and dam modeling has allowed for the study of climate change impacts on global hydropower production. Here we explore how these impacts could affect the composition of global electricity supply, and what those changes could mean for power sector emissions and investment needs in the 21st century. Regional hydropower projections are developed for two emissions scenarios by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model (1593 major hydropower dams; 54% global installed capacity) with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations derived from sixteen General Circulation Models (GCMs). To incorporate possible non-linearity in hydropower response to climate change, dam simulations incorporate plant specifications (e.g., maximum turbine flow), reservoir storage dynamics, reservoir bathymetry, evaporation losses and bespoke, site specific operations. Consequent impacts on regional and global-level electricity generation and associated emissions and investment costs are examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We show that changes in hydropower generation resulting from climate change can shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies, resulting in significant impacts on CO2 emissions for several regions. Many of these countries are also highly vulnerable to investment impacts (costs of new electricity generating facilities to make up for shortfalls in hydro), which in some cases amount to tens of billions of dollars by 2100. The Balkans region—typified by weak economies in a drying region that relies heavily on hydropower—emerges as the most vulnerable. Reduced impacts of climate change on hydropower production under a low emissions scenario coincide with increased costs of marginal power generating capacity (low emissions requires greater uptake of clean generating technologies, which are more expensive). This means impacts on power sector investment costs are similar for high

Modern population trends in Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Abul-basher, M M

1985-01-01

Population growth trends in Bangladesh in the 1871-1981 period were analyzed, with emphasis on fertility and mortality differentials, to provide a basis for population planning. Following proclamation of British Imperial Rule in 1857, mortality rates in Bangladesh began to decline as a result of preventive measures against natural disasters such as draught and famine, but the fertility rate remained unaltered. The demographic pattern was unstable over time, reflecting the impact of the influenza epidemic of 1918-19, war, migration, and economic development. Population growth accelerated greatly during the 1961-74 period, when industrialization emerged and job opportunities were created in the urban centers. Economic hardship, food shortages, and the introduction of family planning curbed urban growth drastically and total growth to some extent in 1974-81. On the average, growth has been higher in the Dhaka and Chittagong Divisions of Bangladesh than in the Khulna and Rajshahi Divisions. Differences in population growth among the regions are attributable largely to internal and external migration. The regression polynomial model best fits past population trends in Bangladesh and can reproduce the observed population by 99.60%. This polynomial is most suitable for graduation and prediction of population trends.

TRENDS IN CROATIAN HOTEL INDUSTRY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jasmina GRZINIC

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Tourism and hotel business is becoming one of the leading industries of theworld. Therefore, an increased attention needs to be paid to the study oftrends in tourism because they determine the trends in hotel industry. Thepurpose of the paper is to point out the importance of hotel industry as one ofthe most important elements of development in tourist economies. The paperaims at introducing the newest trends in modern hotel industry and offering areview of the recent trends of demand and the directions of hotel industrydevelopment. The importance of hotel industry on both micro and macro, i.e.global level is increasing. Besides a series of theoretical representations andconclusions, this paper brings some concrete data and examples frompractice in hotel management.

Sea surface temperature trends in the coastal ocean

OpenAIRE

Amos, C.L.; Al-Rashidi, Thamer B.; Rakha, Karim; El-Gamily, Hamdy; Nicholls, R.J.

2013-01-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) trends in the coastal zone are shown to be increasing at rates that exceed the global trends by up to an order of magnitude. This paper compiles some of the evidence of the trends published in the literature. The evidence suggests that urbanization in the coastal hinterland is having a direct effect on SST through increased temperatures of river and lake waters, as well as through heated run-off and thermal effluent discharges from coastal infrastructure. These l...

The global pipeline: too narrow, too wide or just right?

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Eckhert, N Lynn

2002-07-01

Access to a well-trained workforce is one of many factors underscoring the global health divide that separates industrialized and developing nations. This paper describes the distribution and physician output of the world's medical schools, compares regional physician to population ratios, examines population trends and points out potential mismatches between output and anticipated demographic changes. This paper has used multiple data sources in published and electronic form from organized medicine, international health institutions and the medical literature. In addition, a stratified, random survey of 130 medical schools was conducted to determine annual numbers of graduates. Tracking the number and distribution of medical schools and their student capacity is a complex task. The number of medical schools and the estimated number of graduates per population vary by region. In areas of predicted substantial population growth, the production of physicians is neither adequate to meet future needs, nor sufficient to overcome low physician-population ratios. Regions with high physician-population ratios and either expected population decline or small population gains over the next 50 years appear to have an over-capacity to train medical students. This paper emphasizes the need for new methods of tracking the global pipeline of medical education and of establishing ways of sharing expertise. The growing interdependence of nations, accentuated by globalization of the world's economies, our shared goal of achieving health for all and the migration of physicians across borders highlight the need to understand the global capacity to educate the next generation of physicians.

Future scenarios for energy consumption and carbon emissions due to demographic transitions in Chinese households

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Yu, Biying; Wei, Yi-Ming; Kei, Gomi; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

2018-02-01

Population dynamics has been acknowledged as a key concern for projecting future emissions, partly because of the huge uncertainties related to human behaviour. However, the heterogeneous shifts of human behaviour in the process of demographic transition are not well explored when scrutinizing the impacts of population dynamics on carbon emissions. Here, we expand the existing population-economy-environment analytical structure to address the above limitations by representing the trend of demographic transitions to small-family and ageing society. We specifically accommodate for inter- and intra-life-stage variations in time allocation and consumption in the population rather than assuming a representative household, and take a less developed province, Sichuan, in China as the empirical context. Our results show that the demographic shift to small and ageing households will boost energy consumption and carbon emissions, driven by the joint variations in time-use and consumption patterns. Furthermore, biased pictures of changing emissions will emerge if the time effect is disregarded.

Global Search Trends of Oral Problems using Google Trends from 2004 to 2016: An Exploratory Analysis.

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Patthi, Basavaraj; Kumar, Jishnu Krishna; Singla, Ashish; Gupta, Ritu; Prasad, Monika; Ali, Irfan; Dhama, Kuldeep; Niraj, Lav Kumar

2017-09-01

Oral diseases are pandemic cause of morbidity with widespread geographic distribution. This technology based era has brought about easy knowledge transfer than traditional dependency on information obtained from family doctors. Hence, harvesting this system of trends can aid in oral disease quantification. To conduct an exploratory analysis of the changes in internet search volumes of oral diseases by using Google Trends © (GT © ). GT © were utilized to provide real world facts based on search terms related to categories, interest by region and interest over time. Time period chosen was from January 2004 to December 2016. Five different search terms were explored and compared based on the highest relative search volumes along with comma separated value files to obtain an insight into highest search traffic. The search volume measured over the time span noted the term "Dental caries" to be the most searched in Japan, "Gingivitis" in Jordan, "Oral Cancer" in Taiwan, "No Teeth" in Australia, "HIV symptoms" in Zimbabwe, "Broken Teeth" in United Kingdom, "Cleft palate" in Philippines, "Toothache" in Indonesia and the comparison of top five searched terms provided the "Gingivitis" with highest search volume. The results from the present study offers an insight into a competent tool that can analyse and compare oral diseases over time. The trend research platform can be used on emerging diseases and their drift in geographic population with great acumen. This tool can be utilized in forecasting, modulating marketing strategies and planning disability limitation techniques.

Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS Model: A New Method for Estimating the Global Dietary Supply of Nutrients.

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Matthew R Smith

Full Text Available Insufficient data exist for accurate estimation of global nutrient supplies. Commonly used global datasets contain key weaknesses: 1 data with global coverage, such as the FAO food balance sheets, lack specific information about many individual foods and no information on micronutrient supplies nor heterogeneity among subnational populations, while 2 household surveys provide a closer approximation of consumption, but are often not nationally representative, do not commonly capture many foods consumed outside of the home, and only provide adequate information for a few select populations. Here, we attempt to improve upon these datasets by constructing a new model--the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS model--to estimate nutrient availabilities for 23 individual nutrients across 225 food categories for thirty-four age-sex groups in nearly all countries. Furthermore, the model provides historical trends in dietary nutritional supplies at the national level using data from 1961-2011. We determine supplies of edible food by expanding the food balance sheet data using FAO production and trade data to increase food supply estimates from 98 to 221 food groups, and then estimate the proportion of major cereals being processed to flours to increase to 225. Next, we estimate intake among twenty-six demographic groups (ages 20+, both sexes in each country by using data taken from the Global Dietary Database, which uses nationally representative surveys to relate national averages of food consumption to individual age and sex-groups; for children and adolescents where GDD data does not yet exist, average calorie-adjusted amounts are assumed. Finally, we match food supplies with nutrient densities from regional food composition tables to estimate nutrient supplies, running Monte Carlo simulations to find the range of potential nutrient supplies provided by the diet. To validate our new method, we compare the GENuS estimates of nutrient supplies against