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Sample records for global cvd risk

  1. Fermented dairy food and CVD risk.

    Tapsell, Linda C

    2015-04-01

    Fermented dairy foods such as yoghurt and cheese are commonly found in the Mediterranean diet. Recent landmark research has confirmed the effect of the Mediterranean diet on reducing the CVD risk, but the relative contributions of fermented dairy foods have not been fully articulated. The present study provides a review of the relationship between fermented dairy foods consumption and CVD risk in the context of the whole diet. Studies show that people who eat healthier diets may be more likely to consume yoghurt, so there is a challenge in attributing separate effects to yoghurt. Analyses from large population studies list yoghurt as the food most negatively associated with the risk of weight gain (a problem that may lead to CVD). There is some suggestion that fermented dairy foods consumption (yoghurt or cheese) may be associated with reduced inflammatory biomarkers associated with the development of CVD. Dietary trials suggest that cheese may not have the same effect on raising LDL-cholesterol levels as butter with the same saturated fat content. The same might be stated for yoghurt. The use of different probiotic cultures and other aspects of study design remain a problem for research. Nevertheless, population studies from a range of countries have shown that a reduced risk of CVD occurs with the consumption of fermented dairy foods. A combination of evidence is necessary, and more research is always valuable, but indications remain that fermented dairy foods such as cheese and yoghurt are integral to diets that are protective against CVD.

  2. Changes in CVD risk factors in the activity counseling trial

    Meghan Baruth

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Meghan Baruth1, Sara Wilcox1, James F Sallis3, Abby C King4,5, Bess H Marcus6, Steven N Blair1,21Department of Exercise Science, 2Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Public Health Research Center, Columbia, SC, USA; 3Department of Psychology, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA; 4Department of Health Research and Policy, 5Stanford Prevention Research Center, Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA; 6Behavioral and Social Sciences Section, Brown University Program in Public Health, Providence, RI, USAAbstract: Primary care facilities may be a natural setting for delivering interventions that focus on behaviors that improve cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors. The purpose of this study was to examine the 24-month effects of the Activity Counseling Trial (ACT on CVD risk factors, to examine whether changes in CVD risk factors differed according to baseline risk factor status, and to examine whether changes in fitness were associated with changes in CVD risk factors. ACT was a 24-month multicenter randomized controlled trial to increase physical activity. Participants were 874 inactive men and women aged 35–74 years. Participants were randomly assigned to one of three arms that varied by level of counseling, intensity, and resource requirements. Because there were no significant differences in change over time between arms on any of the CVD risk factors examined, all arms were combined, and the effects of time, independent of arm, were examined separately for men and women. Time × Baseline risk factor status interactions examined whether changes in CVD risk factors differed according to baseline risk factor status. Significant improvements in total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, the ratio of total cholesterol to HDL-C, and triglycerides were seen in

  3. Prevalence of undiagnosed cardiovascular risk factors and 10-year CVD risk in male steel industry workers.

    Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Mellalieu, Stephen D; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

    2014-05-01

    To assess the prevalence of undiagnosed cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a cohort of male steelworkers in South Wales, UK. Male steel industry workers (n = 221) with no prior diagnosis of CVD or diabetes accepted a CVD risk assessment within the work environment. Demographic, anthropometric, family, and medical histories were all recorded and capillary blood samples obtained. The 10-year CVD risk was predicted using the QRISK2-2012 algorithm. Up to 81.5% of workers were either overweight or obese. More than 20% of workers were found to have diastolic hypertension, high total cholesterol, and/or a total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein ratio of six or more. Over one quarter of workers assessed had an increased 10-year CVD risk. Despite a physically demanding occupation, risk assessment in the workplace uncovered significant occult factors in CVD risk in a sample of male heavy industry workers.

  4. COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF RISK FACTORS FOR CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE (CVD) IN GENETICALLY PREDISPOSED RATS

    Rodent CVD models are increasingly used for understanding individual differences in susceptibility to environmental stressors such as air pollution. We characterized pathologies and a number of known human risk factors of CVD in genetically predisposed, male young adult Spontaneo...

  5. Management of Hypertension and Other CVD Risk Factors in Egypt

    Mostafa A. Abolfotouh

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To assess the knowledge and practice of PHC physicians toward the detection and management of hypertension (HTN and other CVD risk factors. Methods. A cross-sectional study of all primary health care physicians of the FHU of three rural districts of Egypt was conducted. Each physician was subjected to a prevalidated interview questionnaire on the WHO-CVD risk management package for low and medium resources, and a checklist of observation of daily practices. Results. Hypertension was a priority problem in about two-thirds (62.9% of physicians, yet only 19% have guidelines for HTN patients. Clinical history recording system for HNT was available for 50% of physicians. Levels of knowledge varied with regard to definition of HTN (61.3%, fair, procedures for BP measurement (43.5%, poor, indications for referral (43.5%, poor, patient counseling (61.3%, fair, patient treatment (59.8%, fair. Availability of clinical history recording system for HNT was a significant predictor for physician's level of knowledge (P=0.001. Overall level of practice was fair (68.5%. Conclusion. PHC physicians have unsatisfactory knowledge and practice on hypertension. There is a need of more continuing medical education. Local and international manuals, workshops, and seminars on how to make use of these guidelines would improve doctors' performance.

  6. Effects of Light Intensity Activity on CVD Risk Factors: A Systematic Review of Intervention Studies

    Romeo B. Batacan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The effects of light intensity physical activity (LIPA on cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors remain to be established. This review summarizes the effects of LIPA on CVD risk factors and CVD-related markers in adults. A systematic search of four electronic databases (PubMed, Academic Search Complete, SPORTDiscus, and CINAHL examining LIPA and CVD risk factors (body composition, blood pressure, glucose, insulin, glycosylated hemoglobin, and lipid profile and CVD-related markers (maximal oxygen uptake, heart rate, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 and 2 published between 1970 and 2015 was performed on 15 March 2015. A total of 33 intervention studies examining the effect of LIPA on CVD risk factors and markers were included in this review. Results indicated that LIPA did not improve CVD risk factors and CVD-related markers in healthy individuals. LIPA was found to improve systolic and diastolic blood pressure in physically inactive populations with a medical condition. Reviewed studies show little support for the role of LIPA to reduce CVD risk factors. Many of the included studies were of low to fair study quality and used low doses of LIPA. Further studies are needed to establish the value of LIPA in reducing CVD risk.

  7. Lipids, atherosclerosis and CVD risk: is CRP an innocent bystander?

    Nordestgaard, B G; Zacho, J

    2009-01-01

    AIM: To evaluate recent human studies with respect to the interpretation of whether elevated plasma levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) cause cardiovascular disease (CVD), or whether elevated CRP levels more likely is an innocent bystander. DATA SYNTHESIS: Elevated CRP concentrations...... and vulnerability of atherosclerotic plaques, and thus simply an innocent bystander in CVD....

  8. Applicability of the Existing CVD Risk Assessment Tools to Type II Diabetics in Oman: A Review

    Abdulhakeem Al-Rawahi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Patients with type II diabetes (T2DM have an elevated risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD, and it is considered to be a leading cause of morbidity and premature mortality in these patients. Many traditional risk factors such as age, male sex, hypertension, dyslipidemia, glycemic control, diabetes duration, renal dysfunction, obesity, and smoking have been studied and identified as independent factors for CVD. Quantifying the risk of CVD among diabetics using the common risk factors in order to plan the treatment and preventive measures is important in the management of these patients as recommended by many clinical guidelines. Therefore, several risk assessment tools have been developed in different parts of the world for this purpose. These include the tools that have been developed for general populations and considered T2DM as a risk factor, and the tools that have been developed for T2DM populations specifically. However, due to the differences in sociodemographic factors and lifestyle patterns, as well as the differences in the distribution of various CVD risk factors in different diabetic populations, the external applicability of these tools on different populations is questionable. This review aims to address the applicability of the existing CVD risk models to the Omani diabetic population.

  9. Association of BMI with risk of CVD mortality and all-cause mortality.

    Kee, Chee Cheong; Sumarni, Mohd Ghazali; Lim, Kuang Hock; Selvarajah, Sharmini; Haniff, Jamaiyah; Tee, Guat Hiong Helen; Gurpreet, Kaur; Faudzi, Yusoff Ahmad; Amal, Nasir Mustafa

    2017-05-01

    To determine the relationship between BMI and risk of CVD mortality and all-cause mortality among Malaysian adults. Population-based, retrospective cohort study. Participants were followed up for 5 years from 2006 to 2010. Mortality data were obtained via record linkages with the Malaysian National Registration Department. Multiple Cox regression was applied to compare risk of CVD and all-cause mortality between BMI categories adjusting for age, gender and ethnicity. Models were generated for all participants, all participants the first 2 years of follow-up, healthy participants, healthy never smokers, never smokers, current smokers and former smokers. All fourteen states in Malaysia. Malaysian adults (n 32 839) aged 18 years or above from the third National Health and Morbidity Survey. Total follow-up time was 153 814 person-years with 1035 deaths from all causes and 225 deaths from CVD. Underweight (BMIBMI ≥30·0 kg/m2) was associated with a heightened risk of CVD mortality. Overweight (BMI=25·0-29·9 kg/m2) was inversely associated with risk of all-cause mortality. Underweight was significantly associated with all-cause mortality in all models except for current smokers. Overweight was inversely associated with all-cause mortality in all participants. Although a positive trend was observed between BMI and CVD mortality in all participants, a significant association was observed only for severe obesity (BMI≥35·0 kg/m2). Underweight was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality and obesity with increased risk of CVD mortality. Therefore, maintaining a normal BMI through leading an active lifestyle and healthy dietary habits should continue to be promoted.

  10. Cardiovascular disease (CVD and chronic kidney disease (CKD event rates in HIV-positive persons at high predicted CVD and CKD risk: A prospective analysis of the D:A:D observational study.

    Mark A Boyd

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D study has developed predictive risk scores for cardiovascular disease (CVD and chronic kidney disease (CKD, defined as confirmed estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 events in HIV-positive people. We hypothesized that participants in D:A:D at high (>5% predicted risk for both CVD and CKD would be at even greater risk for CVD and CKD events.We included all participants with complete risk factor (covariate data, baseline eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2, and a confirmed (>3 months apart eGFR 1%-5%, >5% and fitted Poisson models to assess whether CVD and CKD risk group effects were multiplicative. A total of 27,215 participants contributed 202,034 person-years of follow-up: 74% male, median (IQR age 42 (36, 49 years, median (IQR baseline year of follow-up 2005 (2004, 2008. D:A:D risk equations predicted 3,560 (13.1% participants at high CVD risk, 4,996 (18.4% participants at high CKD risk, and 1,585 (5.8% participants at both high CKD and high CVD risk. CVD and CKD event rates by predicted risk group were multiplicative. Participants at high CVD risk had a 5.63-fold (95% CI 4.47, 7.09, p < 0.001 increase in CKD events compared to those at low risk; participants at high CKD risk had a 1.31-fold (95% CI 1.09, 1.56, p = 0.005 increase in CVD events compared to those at low risk. Participants' CVD and CKD risk groups had multiplicative predictive effects, with no evidence of an interaction (p = 0.329 and p = 0.291 for CKD and CVD, respectively. The main study limitation is the difference in the ascertainment of the clinically defined CVD endpoints and the laboratory-defined CKD endpoints.We found that people at high predicted risk for both CVD and CKD have substantially greater risks for both CVD and CKD events compared with those at low predicted risk for both outcomes, and compared to those at high predicted risk for only CVD or CKD events. This suggests that CVD and

  11. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) event rates in HIV-positive persons at high predicted CVD and CKD risk

    Boyd, Mark A; Mocroft, Amanda; Ryom, Lene

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study has developed predictive risk scores for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD, defined as confirmed estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2) events in HIV...

  12. Review Article: Pregnancy and CVD Risk Factors | Glew | Highland ...

    Elevated concentrations of total cholesterol, particular lipoproteins (e.g., LDL) and homocysteine are risk factors for cardiovascular disease and vascular dysfunction that can adversely affect the health of a pregnant woman and her fetus. Although it has been documented in many populations worldwide that the serum total ...

  13. White rice consumption and CVD risk factors among Iranian population.

    Khosravi-Boroujeni, Hossein; Sarrafzadegan, Nizal; Mohammadifard, Noushin; Sajjadi, Firouzeh; Maghroun, Maryam; Asgari, Sedigheh; Rafieian-Kopaei, Mahmoud; Azadbakht, Leila

    2013-06-01

    Association between white rice intake and risk factors of cardiovascular diseases remained uncertain. Most of the previous published studies have been done in western countries with different lifestyles, and scant data are available from the Middle East region, including Iran. This cross-sectional study was conducted in the structure of Isfahan Healthy Heart Program (IHHP) to assess the association between white rice consumption and risk factors of cardiovascular diseases. In the present study, 3,006 men were included from three counties of Isfahan, Najafabad, and Arak by multistage cluster random-sampling method. Dietary intake was assessed with a 49-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Laboratory assessment was done in a standardized central laboratory. Outcome variables were fasting blood glucose, serum lipid levels, and anthropometric variables. Socioeconomic and demographic data, physical activity, and body mass index (BMI) were considered covariates and were adjusted in analysis. In this study, Student's t-test, chi-square test, and logistic regression were used for statistical analyses. Means of BMI among those subjects who consumed white rice less than 7 times per week and people who consumed 7-14 times per week were almost similar--24.8 +/- 4.3 vs 24.5 +/- 4.7 kg/m2. There was no significant association between white rice consumption and risk factors of cardiovascular diseases, such as fasting blood sugar arid serum lipid profiles. Although whole grain consumption has undeniable effect on preventing cardiovascular disease risk, white rice consumption was not associated with cardiovascular risks among Iranian men in the present study. Further prospective studies with a semi-quantitative FFQ or dietary record questionnaire, representing type and portion-size of rice intake as well as cooking methods and other foods consumed with rice that affect glycaemic index (GI) of rice, are required to support our finding and to illustrate the probable mechanism.

  14. How dietary evidence for the prevention and treatment of CVD is translated into practice in those with or at high risk of CVD: a systematic review.

    Schumacher, Tracy L; Burrows, Tracy L; Neubeck, Lis; Redfern, Julie; Callister, Robin; Collins, Clare E

    2017-01-01

    CVD is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity, and nutrition is an important lifestyle factor. The aim of the present systematic review was to synthesise the literature relating to knowledge translation (KT) of dietary evidence for the prevention and treatment of CVD into practice in populations with or at high risk of CVD. A systematic search of six electronic databases (CINAHL, Cochrane, EMBASE, MEDLINE, PsycINFO and Scopus) was performed. Studies were included if a nutrition or dietary KT was demonstrated to occur with a relevant separate measureable outcome. Quality was assessed using a tool adapted from two quality checklists. Population with or at high risk of CVD or clinicians likely to treat this population. A total of 4420 titles and abstracts were screened for inclusion, with 354 full texts retrieved to assess inclusion. Forty-three articles were included in the review, relating to thirty-five separate studies. No studies specifically stated their aim to be KT. Thirty-one studies were in patient or high-risk populations and four targeted health professionals. Few studies stated a theory on which the intervention was based (n 10) and provision of instruction was the most common behaviour change strategy used (n 26). KT in nutrition and dietary studies has been inferred, not stated, with few details provided regarding how dietary knowledge is translated to the end user. This presents challenges for implementation by clinicians and policy and decision makers. Consequently a need exists to improve the quality of publications in this area.

  15. Development of Health Parameter Model for Risk Prediction of CVD Using SVM

    P. Unnikrishnan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Current methods of cardiovascular risk assessment are performed using health factors which are often based on the Framingham study. However, these methods have significant limitations due to their poor sensitivity and specificity. We have compared the parameters from the Framingham equation with linear regression analysis to establish the effect of training of the model for the local database. Support vector machine was used to determine the effectiveness of machine learning approach with the Framingham health parameters for risk assessment of cardiovascular disease (CVD. The result shows that while linear model trained using local database was an improvement on Framingham model, SVM based risk assessment model had high sensitivity and specificity of prediction of CVD. This indicates that using the health parameters identified using Framingham study, machine learning approach overcomes the low sensitivity and specificity of Framingham model.

  16. Which population groups are most unaware of CVD risks associated with sitting time?

    Duncan, Mitch J; Gilson, Nicholas; Vandelanotte, Corneel

    2014-08-01

    Prolonged sitting is an emerging risk factor for poor health yet few studies have examined awareness of the risks associated with sitting behaviours. This study identifies the population subgroups with the highest levels of unawareness regarding the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks associated with sitting behaviours. Adults (n=1256) living in Queensland, Australia completed a telephone-based survey in 2011, analysis conducted in 2013. The survey assessed participant's socio-demographic characteristics, physical activity, sitting behaviours and awareness of CVD risks associated with three sitting behaviours: 1) sitting for prolonged periods, 2), sitting for prolonged periods whilst also engaging in regular physical activity, and 3) breaking up periods of prolonged sitting with short activity breaks. Population sub-groups with the highest levels of unawareness were identified based on socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics using signal detection analysis. Unawareness ranged from 23.3% to 67.0%. Age was the most important variable in differentiating awareness levels; younger adults had higher levels of unawareness. Body mass index, physical activity, TV viewing, employment status and time spent at work also identified population sub-groups. Unawareness of CVD risk for prolonged sitting was moderately high overall. Younger adults had high levels of unawareness on all of the outcomes examined. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) with age in HIV-positive men

    Petoumenos, K; Reiss, P; Ryom, L

    2014-01-01

    equations. METHODS: We analysed three endpoints: myocardial infarction (MI), coronary heart disease (CHD: MI or invasive coronary procedure) and CVD (CHD or stroke). We fitted a number of parametric age effects, adjusting for known risk factors and antiretroviral therapy (ART) use. The best-fitting age...... rates per 1000 person-years increased from 2.29, 3.11 and 3.65 in those aged 40-45 years to 6.53, 11.91 and 15.89 in those aged 60-65 years, respectively. The best-fitting models included inverse age for MI and age + age(2) for CHD and CVD. In D:A:D there was a slowly accelerating increased risk of CHD...... and CVD per year older, which appeared to be only modest yet was consistently raised compared with the risk in the general population. The relative risk of MI with age was not different between D:A:D and the general population. CONCLUSIONS: We found only limited evidence of accelerating increased risk...

  18. Role of biomarkers in predicting CVD risk in the setting of HIV infection?

    Worm, Signe W; Hsue, Priscilla

    2010-01-01

    with risk of CVD. Biomarkers associated with inflammation such as C-reactive protein and interleukin-6 have been suggested to improve risk stratification among intermediate-risk persons; however, their routine use is not recommended in the general population. Both biomarkers have recently been reported......-infected population and will increase as this population continues to age. Identification of intermediate-risk individuals using biomarkers will be an important tool for clinicians in the future to be able to treat HIV-infected individuals aggressively. Future studies of biomarkers among individuals with HIV...

  19. Mediators and Moderators of Dementia Caregiver Depression and CVD Risk Outcomes in the Pleasant Events Program

    Ho, Jennefer S.

    2016-01-01

    Rationale: Alzheimer’s disease caregivers demonstrate significant elevations in depression compared with noncaregivers. Addressing caregiver depression is of high public health importance due to its ties with overall wellbeing, increased risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVD), and ability to sustain caregiving duties. Improving caregiver mental and physical health may not only decrease healthcare costs, but it may also delay institutionalization of Alzheimer’s disease patients. Despite existi...

  20. Validation of a model to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors on the burden of CVD: the rotterdam ischemic heart disease and stroke computer simulation (RISC) model

    van Kempen, Bob J. H.; Ferket, Bart S.; Hofman, Albert; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; Colkesen, Ersen B.; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Hunink, M. G. Myriam

    2012-01-01

    Background: We developed a Monte Carlo Markov model designed to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors on the burden of CVD. Internal, predictive, and external validity of the model have not yet been established. Methods: The Rotterdam Ischemic Heart Disease

  1. Validation of a model to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors on the burden of CVD: The rotterdam ischemic heart disease and stroke computer simulation (RISC) model

    B.J.H. van Kempen (Bob); B.S. Ferket (Bart); A. Hofman (Albert); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout); E.B. Colkesen (Ersen); S.M. Boekholdt (Matthijs); N.J. Wareham (Nick); K-T. Khaw (Kay-Tee); M.G.M. Hunink (Myriam)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractBackground: We developed a Monte Carlo Markov model designed to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors on the burden of CVD. Internal, predictive, and external validity of the model have not yet been established.Methods: The Rotterdam Ischemic

  2. Joint association of physical activity/screen time and diet on CVD risk factors in 10-year-old children.

    Drenowatz, Clemens; Carlson, Joseph J; Pfeiffer, Karin A; Eisenmann, Joey C

    2012-12-01

    The increasing prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity has been associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). While several studies examined the effect of single behaviors such as physical activity (PA), sedentary behavior or diet on CVD risk, there is a lack of research on combined associations, specifically in children. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine the joint association of PA or screen time (ST) and diet on CVD risk factors in children. PA, STand diet were assessed via questionnaire in 210 fifth grade students (age: 10.6 ± 0.4 years). The healthy eating index (HEI) was subsequently calculated as indicator for diet quality. Height, weight, % body fat, and resting blood pressure were measured according to standard procedures and blood samples obtained via fingerprick were assayed for blood lipids. Total cholesterol HDL ratio (TC:HDL), mean arterial pressure (MAP), and % body fat were used as indicators of CVD risk. 55% of children did not meet current PA recommendations on at least 5 days/week and 70% exceeded current recommendations for ST. Further, only 2.5% possessed a "good" diet (HEI> 80). There was no significant association of PA or STand diet on CVD risk score. Neither TC:HDL, MAP, and % body fat nor the total CVD risk score was significantly correlated with diet, PA, or ST. Children in the high PA group, however, had significantly better diet scores. Despite the fact that self-reported PA, ST, or dietary intake were not directly related to CVD risk in this sample, higher activity levels were associated with a healthier diet and lower ST indicating an overall healthier lifestyle of this subgroup.

  3. Mindfulness-Based Interventions for Weight Loss and CVD Risk Management

    Fulwiler, Carl; Brewer, Judson A.; Sinnott, Sinead; Loucks, Eric B.

    2017-01-01

    Obesity affects more than one-third of U.S. adults and is a major cause of preventable morbidity and mortality, primarily from cardiovascular disease. Traditional behavioral interventions for weight loss typically focus on diet and exercise habits and often give little attention to the role of stress and emotions in the initiation and maintenance of unhealthy behaviors, which may account for their modest results and considerable variability in outcomes. Stress eating and emotional eating are increasingly recognized as important targets of weight loss interventions. Mindfulness-based interventions were specifically developed to promote greater self-efficacy in coping with stress and negative emotions, and appear to be effective for a variety of conditions. In recent years researchers have begun to study mindfulness interventions for weight loss and CVD risk management. This review describes the rationale for the use of mindfulness in interventions for weight loss and CVD risk management, summarizes the research to date, and suggests priorities for future research. PMID:28405260

  4. Validation of a model to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors on the burden of CVD: the rotterdam ischemic heart disease and stroke computer simulation (RISC) model.

    van Kempen, Bob J H; Ferket, Bart S; Hofman, Albert; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Colkesen, Ersen B; Boekholdt, S Matthijs; Wareham, Nicholas J; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Hunink, M G Myriam

    2012-12-06

    We developed a Monte Carlo Markov model designed to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors on the burden of CVD. Internal, predictive, and external validity of the model have not yet been established. The Rotterdam Ischemic Heart Disease and Stroke Computer Simulation (RISC) model was developed using data covering 5 years of follow-up from the Rotterdam Study. To prove 1) internal and 2) predictive validity, the incidences of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, CVD death, and non-CVD death simulated by the model over a 13-year period were compared with those recorded for 3,478 participants in the Rotterdam Study with at least 13 years of follow-up. 3) External validity was verified using 10 years of follow-up data from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk study of 25,492 participants, for whom CVD and non-CVD mortality was compared. At year 5, the observed incidences (with simulated incidences in brackets) of CHD, stroke, and CVD and non-CVD mortality for the 3,478 Rotterdam Study participants were 5.30% (4.68%), 3.60% (3.23%), 4.70% (4.80%), and 7.50% (7.96%), respectively. At year 13, these percentages were 10.60% (10.91%), 9.90% (9.13%), 14.20% (15.12%), and 24.30% (23.42%). After recalibrating the model for the EPIC-Norfolk population, the 10-year observed (simulated) incidences of CVD and non-CVD mortality were 3.70% (4.95%) and 6.50% (6.29%). All observed incidences fell well within the 95% credibility intervals of the simulated incidences. We have confirmed the internal, predictive, and external validity of the RISC model. These findings provide a basis for analyzing the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease risk factors on the burden of CVD with the RISC model.

  5. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  6. [Global risk management].

    Sghaier, W; Hergon, E; Desroches, A

    2015-08-01

    Risk management is a fundamental component of any successful company, whether it is in economic, societal or environmental aspect. Risk management is an especially important activity for companies that optimal security challenge of products and services is great. This is the case especially for the health sector institutions. Risk management is therefore a decision support tool and a means to ensure the sustainability of an organization. In this context, what methods and approaches implemented to manage the risks? Through this state of the art, we are interested in the concept of risk and risk management processes. Then we focus on the different methods of risk management and the criteria for choosing among these methods. Finally we highlight the need to supplement these methods by a systemic and global approach including through risk assessment by the audits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  7. Buckwheat and CVD Risk Markers: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    Liangkui Li

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The effects of buckwheat intake on cardiovascular diseases (CVDs have not been systematically investigated. The aim of the present study was to comprehensively summarize studies in humans and animals, evaluating the impact of buckwheat consumption on CVD risk markers and to conduct a meta-analysis of relevant data. Thirteen randomized, controlled human studies, two cross-sectional human studies and twenty-one animal studies were identified. Using random-effects models, the weighted mean difference of post-intervention concentrations of blood glucose, total cholesterol and triglycerides were significantly decreased following buckwheat intervention compared with controls [differences in blood glucose: −0.85 mmol/L (95% CI: −1.31, −0.39, total cholesterol: 0.50 mmol/L (95% CI: −0.80, −0.20 and triglycerides: 0.25 mmol/L (95% CI: −0.49, −0.02]. Responses of a similar magnitude were seen in two cross-sectional studies. For animal studies, nineteen of twenty-one studies showed a significant reduction in total cholesterol of between 12% and 54%, and fourteen of twenty studies showed a significant reduction in triglycerides of between 2% and 74%. All exhibited high unexplained heterogeneity. There was inconsistency in HDL cholesterol outcomes in both human and animal studies. It remains unclear whether increased buckwheat intake significantly benefits other markers of CVD risk, such as weight, blood pressure, insulin, and LDL-cholesterol, and underlying mechanisms responsible for any effects are unclear.

  8. Globalization and Risk Sharing

    Jaume Ventura; Fernando A. Broner

    2006-01-01

    We study the effects of globalization on risk sharing and welfare. Like the previous literature, we assume that governments cannot commit to enforce the repayment of debts owed by their citizens. Unlike the previous literature, we assume that governments cannot discriminate between domestic and foreign creditors when enforcing debt payments. This creates novel interactions between domestic and international trade in assets. (i) Increases in domestic trade raise the benefits of enforcement and...

  9. Validation of a model to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors on the burden of CVD: the rotterdam ischemic heart disease and stroke computer simulation (RISC model

    van Kempen Bob JH

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We developed a Monte Carlo Markov model designed to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors on the burden of CVD. Internal, predictive, and external validity of the model have not yet been established. Methods The Rotterdam Ischemic Heart Disease and Stroke Computer Simulation (RISC model was developed using data covering 5 years of follow-up from the Rotterdam Study. To prove 1 internal and 2 predictive validity, the incidences of coronary heart disease (CHD, stroke, CVD death, and non-CVD death simulated by the model over a 13-year period were compared with those recorded for 3,478 participants in the Rotterdam Study with at least 13 years of follow-up. 3 External validity was verified using 10 years of follow-up data from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC-Norfolk study of 25,492 participants, for whom CVD and non-CVD mortality was compared. Results At year 5, the observed incidences (with simulated incidences in brackets of CHD, stroke, and CVD and non-CVD mortality for the 3,478 Rotterdam Study participants were 5.30% (4.68%, 3.60% (3.23%, 4.70% (4.80%, and 7.50% (7.96%, respectively. At year 13, these percentages were 10.60% (10.91%, 9.90% (9.13%, 14.20% (15.12%, and 24.30% (23.42%. After recalibrating the model for the EPIC-Norfolk population, the 10-year observed (simulated incidences of CVD and non-CVD mortality were 3.70% (4.95% and 6.50% (6.29%. All observed incidences fell well within the 95% credibility intervals of the simulated incidences. Conclusions We have confirmed the internal, predictive, and external validity of the RISC model. These findings provide a basis for analyzing the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease risk factors on the burden of CVD with the RISC model.

  10. The integration of epigenetics and genetics in nutrition research for CVD risk factors

    There is increasing evidence documenting gene-by-environment (G x E) interactions for CVD related traits. However, the underlying mechanisms are still unclear. DNA methylation may represent one of such potential mechanisms. The objective of this review paper is to summarise the current evidence supp...

  11. Coffee consumption is not associated with prevalent subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) or the risk of CVD events, in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: results from the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

    Simon, Tracey G; Trejo, Maria Esther Perez; Zeb, Irfan; Frazier-Wood, Alexis C; McClelland, Robyn L; Chung, Raymond T; Budoff, Matthew J

    2017-10-01

    Atherosclerosis and its clinical sequelae represent the leading cause of mortality among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). While epidemiologic data support the hepatoprotective benefits of coffee in NAFLD, whether coffee improves NAFLD-associated CVD risk is unknown. We examined 3710 ethnically-diverse participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) cohort, without history of known liver disease, and with available coffee data from a validated 120-item food frequency questionnaire. All participants underwent baseline non-contrast cardiac CT from which NAFLD was defined by liver:spleen ratio (L:S0. Major CVD events were defined by the first occurrence of myocardial infarction, cardiac arrest, angina, stroke, or CVD death. We used log-binomial regression to calculate the adjusted prevalence ratio (PR) for CAC>0 by coffee intake and NAFLD status, and events were compared between groups using frequency of events within adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression models. Seventeen percent (N=637) of participants met criteria for NAFLD. NAFLD participants were more likely to have elevated BMI (mean 31.1±5.5kg/m 2 vs. 28.0±5.2kg/m 2 , pcoffee consumption (p=0.97). Among NAFLD participants, coffee consumption was not associated with prevalent, baseline CAC>0 (PR=1.02 [0.98-1.07]). Over 12.8years of follow-up, 93 NAFLD and 415 non-NAFLD participants experienced a CV event. However, coffee intake was not associated with incident CVD events, in either NAFLD (HR=1.05 [0.91-1.21]) or non-NAFLD participants (HR=1.03 [0.97-1.11]). In a large, population-based cohort, coffee consumption was not associated with the prevalence of subclinical CVD, nor did coffee impact the future risk of major CVD events, regardless of underlying NAFLD status. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. An updated prediction model of the global risk of cardiovascular disease in HIV-positive persons

    Friis-Møller, Nina; Ryom, Lene; Smith, Colette

    2016-01-01

    ,663 HIV-positive persons from 20 countries in Europe and Australia, who were free of CVD at entry into the Data-collection on Adverse Effects of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study. Cox regression models (full and reduced) were developed that predict the risk of a global CVD endpoint. The predictive performance...... significantly predicted risk more accurately than the recalibrated Framingham model (Harrell's c-statistic of 0.791, 0.783 and 0.766 for the D:A:D full, D:A:D reduced, and Framingham models respectively; p models also more accurately predicted five-year CVD-risk for key prognostic subgroups...... to quantify risk and to guide preventive care....

  13. A comparative analysis of cardiovascular disease risk profiles of five Pacific ethnic groups assessed in New Zealand primary care practice: PREDICT CVD-13.

    Grey, Corina; Wells, Sue; Riddell, Tania; Pylypchuk, Romana; Marshall, Roger; Drury, Paul; Elley, Raina; Ameratunga, Shanthi; Gentles, Dudley; Erick-Peletiy, Stephanie; Bell, Fionna; Kerr, Andrew; Jackson, Rod

    2010-11-05

    Data on the cardiovascular disease risk profiles of Pacific peoples in New Zealand is usually aggregated and treated as a single entity. Little is known about the comparability or otherwise of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk between different Pacific groups. To compare CVD risk profiles for the main Pacific ethnic groups assessed in New Zealand primary care practice to determine if it is reasonable to aggregate these data, or if significant differences exist. A web-based clinical decision support system for CVD risk assessment and management (PREDICT) has been implemented in primary care practices in nine PHOs throughout Auckland and Northland since 2002, covering approximately 65% of the population of these regions. Between 2002 and January 2009, baseline CVD risk assessments were carried out on 11,642 patients aged 35-74 years identifying with one or more Pacific ethnic groups (4933 Samoans, 1724 Tongans, 1366 Cook Island Maori, 880 Niueans, 1341 Fijians and 1398 people identified as Other Pacific or Pacific Not Further Defined). Fijians were subsequently excluded from the analyses because of a probable misclassification error that appears to combine Fijian Indians with ethnic Fijians. Prevalences of smoking, diabetes and prior history of CVD, as well as mean total cholesterol/HDL ratio, systolic and diastolic blood pressures, and Framingham 5-year CVD risk were calculated for each Pacific group. Age-adjusted risk ratios and mean differences stratified by gender were calculated using Samoans as the reference group. Cook Island women were almost 60% more likely to smoke than Samoan women. While Tongan men had the highest proportion of smoking (29%) among Pacific men, Tongan women had the lowest smoking proportion (10%) among Pacific women. Tongan women and Niuean men and women had a higher burden of diabetes than other Pacific ethnic groups, which were 20-30% higher than their Samoan counterparts. Niuean men and women had lower blood pressure levels than all

  14. The Global Age NGIOA @ Risk

    Pandya, Jayshree

    2012-01-01

    Dr. Jayshree Pandya, founder of Risk Group LLC, is ahead of the curve in addressing the changing global fundamentals of the emerging Global Age.   The Global Age, and its changing global fundamentals has brought complex, chaotic, and turbulent times for every nation—where failures on all levels have become self-evident, repetitive, destructive, and potentially hopeless in nature and uncertainty. Nations are caught off guard.   From what is visible worldwide today, the promise of progress and prosperity for all nations does not seem to have materialized in this Global Age. Instead of progress and prosperity, we see crisis and catastrophe  overpowering and overwhelming the capability of most nations to meet their promise of progress and prosperity. Nations are in crisis. This introductory book addresses the global shifts and the changing global fundamentals of the Global Age, to lay out a much needed foundation of an integrated NGIOA risk governance framework for the near future. This book will make a conv...

  15. The association between a vegetarian diet and cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors in India: the Indian Migration Study.

    Krithiga Shridhar

    Full Text Available Studies in the West have shown lower cardiovascular disease (CVD risk among people taking a vegetarian diet, but these findings may be confounded and only a minority selects these diets. We evaluated the association between vegetarian diets (chosen by 35% and CVD risk factors across four regions of India.Study participants included urban migrants, their rural siblings and urban residents, of the Indian Migration Study from Lucknow, Nagpur, Hyderabad and Bangalore (n = 6555, mean age-40.9 yrs. Information on diet (validated interviewer-administered semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire, tobacco, alcohol, physical history, medical history, as well as blood pressure, fasting blood and anthropometric measurements were collected. Vegetarians ate no eggs, fish, poultry or meat. Using robust standard error multivariate linear regression models, we investigated the association of vegetarian diets with blood cholesterol, low density lipoprotein (LDL, high density lipoprotein (HDL, triglycerides, fasting blood glucose (FBG, systolic (SBP and diastolic blood pressure (DBP.Vegetarians (32.8% of the study population did not differ from non-vegetarians with respect to age, use of smokeless tobacco, body mass index, and prevalence of diabetes or hypertension. Vegetarians had a higher standard of living and were less likely to smoke, drink alcohol (p<0.0001 and were less physically active (p = 0.04. In multivariate analysis, vegetarians had lower levels of total cholesterol (β =  -0.1 mmol/L (95% CI: -0.03 to -0.2, p = 0.006, triglycerides (β =  -0.05 mmol/L (95% CI: -0.007 to -0.01, p = 0.02, LDL (β =  -0.06 mmol/L (95% CI: -0.005 to -0.1, p = 0.03 and lower DBP (β =  -0.7 mmHg (95% CI: -1.2 to -0.07, p = 0.02. Vegetarians also had decreases in SBP (β =  -0.9 mmHg (95% CI: -1.9 to 0.08, p = 0.07 and FBG level (β =  -0.07 mmol/L (95% CI: -0.2 to 0.01, p = 0.09 when compared to non-vegetarians.We found beneficial association of

  16. The association between a vegetarian diet and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in India: the Indian Migration Study.

    Shridhar, Krithiga; Dhillon, Preet Kaur; Bowen, Liza; Kinra, Sanjay; Bharathi, Ankalmadugu Venkatsubbareddy; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Reddy, Kolli Srinath; Ebrahim, Shah

    2014-01-01

    Studies in the West have shown lower cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among people taking a vegetarian diet, but these findings may be confounded and only a minority selects these diets. We evaluated the association between vegetarian diets (chosen by 35%) and CVD risk factors across four regions of India. Study participants included urban migrants, their rural siblings and urban residents, of the Indian Migration Study from Lucknow, Nagpur, Hyderabad and Bangalore (n = 6555, mean age-40.9 yrs). Information on diet (validated interviewer-administered semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire), tobacco, alcohol, physical history, medical history, as well as blood pressure, fasting blood and anthropometric measurements were collected. Vegetarians ate no eggs, fish, poultry or meat. Using robust standard error multivariate linear regression models, we investigated the association of vegetarian diets with blood cholesterol, low density lipoprotein (LDL), high density lipoprotein (HDL), triglycerides, fasting blood glucose (FBG), systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP). Vegetarians (32.8% of the study population) did not differ from non-vegetarians with respect to age, use of smokeless tobacco, body mass index, and prevalence of diabetes or hypertension. Vegetarians had a higher standard of living and were less likely to smoke, drink alcohol (pvegetarians had lower levels of total cholesterol (β =  -0.1 mmol/L (95% CI: -0.03 to -0.2), p = 0.006), triglycerides (β =  -0.05 mmol/L (95% CI: -0.007 to -0.01), p = 0.02), LDL (β =  -0.06 mmol/L (95% CI: -0.005 to -0.1), p = 0.03) and lower DBP (β =  -0.7 mmHg (95% CI: -1.2 to -0.07), p = 0.02). Vegetarians also had decreases in SBP (β =  -0.9 mmHg (95% CI: -1.9 to 0.08), p = 0.07) and FBG level (β =  -0.07 mmol/L (95% CI: -0.2 to 0.01), p = 0.09) when compared to non-vegetarians. We found beneficial association of vegetarian diet with cardiovascular risk factors compared to non

  17. Prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk factors among a Nigerian adult population: Relationship with income level and accessibility to CVD risks screening

    Oguoma, Victor Maduabuchi; Nwose, Ezekiel Uba; Nwose, Ezekiel Uba

    2015-01-01

    males and 273 females) had mean age (± standard deviation) of 38.3 ± 20.5 and 42.9 ± 20.7 year s, respectively. Only total cholesterol (p = 0.001), triglyceride (p = 0.005), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL) (p index (BMI) (p = 0.03) and average income rate (p = 0...... (p = 0.017), other CVD risk factors did not show a statistical significance across income levels. Participants with 'university and postgraduate education' had higher access to blood pressure and blood glucose screening compared to other educational groups; and this showed a statistical significance...

  18. Global risks from energy consumption

    von Hippel, F.

    1983-01-01

    A discussion of some of the global risks associated with current and frequently proposed future levels of consumption of energy from oil, coal, fission, fusion, and renewable sources points out the the dangers are serious and relatively near term. These include world war over Persian Gulf oil, climate change due to the buildup of atmospheric carbon dioxide, the accelerated proliferation of nuclear weapons, and competition between food and energy for land and water. The author urges placing a greater emphasis on how we use energy and how to reduce energy waste. At the levels of consumption which economically justified levels of energy efficiency could bring about, enough flexibility could develop in our choice of a future energy-supply mix to dramatically reduce the associated global risks. 47 references, 3 figures

  19. A multifactorial analysis of obesity as CVD risk factor: Use of neural network based methods in a nutrigenetics context

    Valavanis Ioannis K

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Obesity is a multifactorial trait, which comprises an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD. The aim of the current work is to study the complex etiology beneath obesity and identify genetic variations and/or factors related to nutrition that contribute to its variability. To this end, a set of more than 2300 white subjects who participated in a nutrigenetics study was used. For each subject a total of 63 factors describing genetic variants related to CVD (24 in total, gender, and nutrition (38 in total, e.g. average daily intake in calories and cholesterol, were measured. Each subject was categorized according to body mass index (BMI as normal (BMI ≤ 25 or overweight (BMI > 25. Two artificial neural network (ANN based methods were designed and used towards the analysis of the available data. These corresponded to i a multi-layer feed-forward ANN combined with a parameter decreasing method (PDM-ANN, and ii a multi-layer feed-forward ANN trained by a hybrid method (GA-ANN which combines genetic algorithms and the popular back-propagation training algorithm. Results PDM-ANN and GA-ANN were comparatively assessed in terms of their ability to identify the most important factors among the initial 63 variables describing genetic variations, nutrition and gender, able to classify a subject into one of the BMI related classes: normal and overweight. The methods were designed and evaluated using appropriate training and testing sets provided by 3-fold Cross Validation (3-CV resampling. Classification accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and area under receiver operating characteristics curve were utilized to evaluate the resulted predictive ANN models. The most parsimonious set of factors was obtained by the GA-ANN method and included gender, six genetic variations and 18 nutrition-related variables. The corresponding predictive model was characterized by a mean accuracy equal of 61.46% in the 3-CV testing sets

  20. A multifactorial analysis of obesity as CVD risk factor: use of neural network based methods in a nutrigenetics context.

    Valavanis, Ioannis K; Mougiakakou, Stavroula G; Grimaldi, Keith A; Nikita, Konstantina S

    2010-09-08

    Obesity is a multifactorial trait, which comprises an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). The aim of the current work is to study the complex etiology beneath obesity and identify genetic variations and/or factors related to nutrition that contribute to its variability. To this end, a set of more than 2300 white subjects who participated in a nutrigenetics study was used. For each subject a total of 63 factors describing genetic variants related to CVD (24 in total), gender, and nutrition (38 in total), e.g. average daily intake in calories and cholesterol, were measured. Each subject was categorized according to body mass index (BMI) as normal (BMI ≤ 25) or overweight (BMI > 25). Two artificial neural network (ANN) based methods were designed and used towards the analysis of the available data. These corresponded to i) a multi-layer feed-forward ANN combined with a parameter decreasing method (PDM-ANN), and ii) a multi-layer feed-forward ANN trained by a hybrid method (GA-ANN) which combines genetic algorithms and the popular back-propagation training algorithm. PDM-ANN and GA-ANN were comparatively assessed in terms of their ability to identify the most important factors among the initial 63 variables describing genetic variations, nutrition and gender, able to classify a subject into one of the BMI related classes: normal and overweight. The methods were designed and evaluated using appropriate training and testing sets provided by 3-fold Cross Validation (3-CV) resampling. Classification accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and area under receiver operating characteristics curve were utilized to evaluate the resulted predictive ANN models. The most parsimonious set of factors was obtained by the GA-ANN method and included gender, six genetic variations and 18 nutrition-related variables. The corresponding predictive model was characterized by a mean accuracy equal of 61.46% in the 3-CV testing sets. The ANN based methods revealed factors

  1. Cardiovascular Disease Population Risk Tool (CVDPoRT): predictive algorithm for assessing CVD risk in the community setting. A study protocol.

    Taljaard, Monica; Tuna, Meltem; Bennett, Carol; Perez, Richard; Rosella, Laura; Tu, Jack V; Sanmartin, Claudia; Hennessy, Deirdre; Tanuseputro, Peter; Lebenbaum, Michael; Manuel, Douglas G

    2014-10-23

    Recent publications have called for substantial improvements in the design, conduct, analysis and reporting of prediction models. Publication of study protocols, with prespecification of key aspects of the analysis plan, can help to improve transparency, increase quality and protect against increased type I error. Valid population-based risk algorithms are essential for population health planning and policy decision-making. The purpose of this study is to develop, evaluate and apply cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk algorithms for the population setting. The Ontario sample of the Canadian Community Health Survey (2001, 2003, 2005; 77,251 respondents) will be used to assess risk factors focusing on health behaviours (physical activity, diet, smoking and alcohol use). Incident CVD outcomes will be assessed through linkage to administrative healthcare databases (619,886 person-years of follow-up until 31 December 2011). Sociodemographic factors (age, sex, immigrant status, education) and mediating factors such as presence of diabetes and hypertension will be included as predictors. Algorithms will be developed using competing risks survival analysis. The analysis plan adheres to published recommendations for the development of valid prediction models to limit the risk of overfitting and improve the quality of predictions. Key considerations are fully prespecifying the predictor variables; appropriate handling of missing data; use of flexible functions for continuous predictors; and avoiding data-driven variable selection procedures. The 2007 and 2009 surveys (approximately 50,000 respondents) will be used for validation. Calibration will be assessed overall and in predefined subgroups of importance to clinicians and policymakers. This study has been approved by the Ottawa Health Science Network Research Ethics Board. The findings will be disseminated through professional and scientific conferences, and in peer-reviewed journals. The algorithm will be accessible

  2. Global Drought Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of global drought total economic loss risks. A process of spatially allocating Gross Domestic...

  3. Global Volcano Mortality Risks and Distribution

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Volcano Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid representing global volcano mortality risks. The data set was constructed using historical...

  4. Global Landslide Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Landslide Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of global landslide total economic loss risks. A process of spatially allocating Gross...

  5. Global Multihazard Mortality Risks and Distribution

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Multihazard Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid identifying and characterizing the nature of multihazard risk at the global scale. For this...

  6. Global Drought Mortality Risks and Distribution

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid of global drought mortality risks. Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3) data...

  7. CVD and obesity in transitional Syria: a perspective from the Middle East.

    Barakat, Hani; Barakat, Hanniya; Baaj, Mohamad K

    2012-01-01

    Syria is caught in the middle of a disruptive nutritional transition. Its healthcare system is distracted by challenges and successes in other areas while neglecting to address the onslaught of Syria's cardiovascular disease (CVD) epidemic. Despite the official viewpoint touting improvement in health indicators, current trends jeopardize population health, and several surveys in the Syrian population signal the epidemic spreading far and wide. The goal is to counteract the indifference towards obesity as a threat to Syrian's health, as the country is slowly becoming a leader in CVD mortality globally. PubMed, World Health Organization, and official government websites were searched for primary surveys in Syria related to CVD morbidity, mortality, and risk factors. Inclusion criteria ensured that results maximized relevance while producing comparable studies. Statistical analysis was applied to detect the most common risk factor and significant differences in risk factor prevalence and CVD rates. Obesity remained the prevailing CVD risk factor except in older Syrian men, where smoking and hypertension were more common. CVD mortality was more common in males due to coronary disease, while stroke dominated female mortality. The young workforce is especially impacted, with 50% of CVD mortality occurring before age 65 years and an 81% prevalence of obesity in women over 45 years. Syria can overcome its slow response to the CVD epidemic and curb further deterioration by reducing obesity and, thus, inheritance and clustering of risk factors. This can be achieved via multilayered awareness and intensive parental and familial involvement. Extinguishing the CVD epidemic is readily achievable as demonstrated in other countries.

  8. The epidemiology of cardiovascular diseases in sub-Saharan Africa: the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors 2010 Study.

    Moran, Andrew; Forouzanfar, Mohammad; Sampson, Uchechukwu; Chugh, Sumeet; Feigin, Valery; Mensah, George

    2013-01-01

    The epidemiology of cardiovascular diseases in sub-Saharan Africa is unique among world regions, with about half of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) due to causes other than atherosclerosis. CVD epidemiology data are sparse and of uneven quality in sub-Saharan Africa. Using the available data, the Global Burden of Diseases, Risk Factors, and Injuries (GBD) 2010 Study estimated CVD mortality and burden of disease in sub-Saharan Africa in 1990 and 2010. The leading CVD cause of death and disability in 2010 in sub-Saharan Africa was stroke; the largest relative increases in CVD burden between 1990 and 2010 were in atrial fibrillation and peripheral arterial disease. CVD deaths constituted only 8.8% of all deaths and 3.5% of all disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in sub-Sahara Africa, less than a quarter of the proportion of deaths and burden attributed to CVD in high income regions. However, CVD deaths in sub-Saharan Africa occur at younger ages on average than in the rest of the world. It remains uncertain if increased urbanization and life expectancy in some parts of sub-Saharan African nations will transition the region to higher CVD burden in future years. © 2013.

  9. The Epidemiology of Cardiovascular Diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors 2010 Study

    Moran, Andrew; Forouzanfar, Mohammad; Sampson, Uchechukwu; Chugh, Sumeet; Feigin, Valery; Mensah, George

    2014-01-01

    The epidemiology of cardiovascular diseases in sub-Saharan Africa is unique among world regions, with about half of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) due to causes other than atherosclerosis. CVD epidemiology data are sparse and of uneven quality in sub-Saharan Africa. Using the available data, the Global Burden of Diseases, Risk Factors, and Injuries (GBD) 2010 Study estimated CVD mortality and burden of disease in sub-Saharan Africa in 1990 and 2010. The leading CVD cause of death and disability in 2010 in sub-Saharan Africa was stroke; the largest relative increases in CVD burden between 1990 and 2010 were in atrial fibrillation and peripheral arterial disease. CVD deaths constituted only 8.8% of all deaths and 3.5% of all disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in sub-Sahara Africa, less than a quarter of the proportion of deaths and burden attributed to CVD in high income regions. However, CVD deaths in sub-Saharan Africa occur at younger ages on average than in the rest of the world. It remains uncertain if increased urbanization and life expectancy in some parts of sub-Saharan African nations will transition the region to higher CVD burden in future years. PMID:24267430

  10. Is physical activity maintenance from adolescence to young adulthood associated with reduced CVD risk factors, improved mental health and satisfaction with life: the HUNT Study, Norway

    2012-01-01

    Background Little is known about the effect maintaining physical activity throughout adolescence has on cardiovascular risk factors and health status in early adulthood. This ten-year prospective longitudinal study investigated whether differences in physical activity patterns from adolescence to young-adulthood showed different associations with subsequent cardio-metabolic risk factors and mental health in young-adulthood. Methods Based on the second and third Norwegian Nord-Trøndelag Health Surveys (HUNT2 and 3), we included 1869 individuals (838 males) participating in Young-HUNT (1995–97), aged 13–19 years and followed-up at HUNT3 (2006–08), aged 23–31. Self-reported physical activity (PA), mental health and perceived health were recorded, along with measurements of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), total cholesterol (TC), HDL cholesterol, glucose, triglycerides, resting heart rate (HR) and blood pressure. We used separate linear regressions models to investigate associations between physical activity and each CVD risk factor, and logistic regression analysis to examine PA patterns and subsequent mental health. Physically active maintainers were compared to inactive maintainers. Adopters (inactive as adolescents and physically active as young adults) were compared to inactive maintainers and to those who discontinued activity (relapsers). Results Active maintainers had significantly lower HR, compared to all other PA patterns. Active maintaining men had significantly lower WC than relapsers and inactive maintainers. When adjusted for age and gender, WC, BMI, HR, diastolic blood pressure and HDL-C showed significant differences comparing active maintaining to other PA patterns. Comparing inactive maintainers against adopters, only HR was significantly lower. Male adopters did not differ significantly in CVD risk compared to inactive maintainers and relapsers. Among females adopting was associated with lower HR and TC compared to inactive

  11. Is physical activity maintenance from adolescence to young adulthood associated with reduced CVD risk factors, improved mental health and satisfaction with life: the HUNT Study, Norway.

    Rangul, Vegar; Bauman, Adrian; Holmen, Turid Lingaas; Midthjell, Kristian

    2012-12-14

    Little is known about the effect maintaining physical activity throughout adolescence has on cardiovascular risk factors and health status in early adulthood. This ten-year prospective longitudinal study investigated whether differences in physical activity patterns from adolescence to young-adulthood showed different associations with subsequent cardio-metabolic risk factors and mental health in young-adulthood. Based on the second and third Norwegian Nord-Trøndelag Health Surveys (HUNT2 and 3), we included 1869 individuals (838 males) participating in Young-HUNT (1995-97), aged 13-19 years and followed-up at HUNT3 (2006-08), aged 23-31. Self-reported physical activity (PA), mental health and perceived health were recorded, along with measurements of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), total cholesterol (TC), HDL cholesterol, glucose, triglycerides, resting heart rate (HR) and blood pressure. We used separate linear regressions models to investigate associations between physical activity and each CVD risk factor, and logistic regression analysis to examine PA patterns and subsequent mental health. Physically active maintainers were compared to inactive maintainers. Adopters (inactive as adolescents and physically active as young adults) were compared to inactive maintainers and to those who discontinued activity (relapsers). Active maintainers had significantly lower HR, compared to all other PA patterns. Active maintaining men had significantly lower WC than relapsers and inactive maintainers. When adjusted for age and gender, WC, BMI, HR, diastolic blood pressure and HDL-C showed significant differences comparing active maintaining to other PA patterns. Comparing inactive maintainers against adopters, only HR was significantly lower. Male adopters did not differ significantly in CVD risk compared to inactive maintainers and relapsers. Among females adopting was associated with lower HR and TC compared to inactive maintainers. Active maintainers

  12. Coffee consumption is not associated with prevalent subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) or the risk of CVD events, in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: Results from the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis

    Atherosclerosis and its clinical sequelae represent the leading cause of mortality among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). While epidemiologic data support the hepatoprotective benefits of coffee in NAFLD, whether coffee improves NAFLD-associated Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) ri...

  13. GLOBAL RISKS AND INSTRUMENTS OF ITS MINIMIZATION

    O. Havryliuk

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available It is argued that economic globalization leads to the formation of macro-economic, political and other risks that are able to grow into global risks affecting, without exception, all national economies, creating a serious threat to national economic security. The emphasis is on the negative elements of a set of global risks, their development and minimize the possibility of using a number of tools. Ensuring firmness of the state to external risks demands continuous monitoring and forecasting of world processes and usage of economic instruments of rapid response for prevention of negative consequences. The essence of the category of "risk" is revealed and deepened. The global risks that can not affect the economic security of Ukraine is disclosed. It is shown that the emergence of these global risks has negative impact on the economic security of Ukraine.

  14. Lp(a-cholesterol is associated with HDL-cholesterol in overweight and obese African American children and is not an independent risk factor for CVD

    Sharma Sushma

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The role of Lipoprotein (a cholesterol {Lp(a-C}as an additional and/or independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD is not clear. We evaluated the associations between Lp(a-C and other CVD risk factors including plasma lipoprotein concentrations and body fatness in overweight and obese African American children. Methods A cross-sectional analysis was carried out using data from a sample of 121 African American children aged 9-11 years with Body Mass Index (BMI's greater than the 85th percentile. Body height, weight and waist circumference (WC were measured. Fasting plasma concentrations of Lp(a-C, Total cholesterol (TC, High density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C, Very low density lipoprotein cholesterol (VLDL-C, Intermediate density lipoprotein cholesterol (IDL-C, Low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C, and Triacylglycerides (TAG were analyzed using the vertical auto profile (VAP cholesterol method. Results After adjusting for child age, gender, and pubertal status, Lp(a-C was positively associated with both HDL-C and TC, and negatively associated with VLDL-C and TAG. Including BMIz and WC as additional covariates did not alter the direction of the relationships between Lp(a-C and the other lipoproteins. Finally, after adjusting for the other plasma lipoproteins, Lp(a-C remained strongly associated with HDL-C, whereas the associations of Lp(a-C with the other lipoproteins were not significant when HDL-C was simultaneously included in the regression models. Conclusions Lp(a-C was positively associated with HDL-C and this association is not influenced by other lipoprotein subclasses or by the degree of obesity. We conclude that Lp(a cholesterol is not an independent risk factor for CVD in African American children.

  15. Globalization – Chances or Risks

    MĂDĂLINA ANTOANETA RĂDOI; ALEXANDRU OLTEANU

    2015-01-01

    There are for and against arguments as regards the process of globalization. But what is globalization: a concept, a reality or a state as such? We can consider that globalization reflects the natural continuity of a process that appeared a long time ago and that has evolved ever since or a new phenomenon that was generated by the speed with which new technology and information flow. Milton Friedman, a fervent supporter of globalization, gives an answer to the question “what is globalization”...

  16. Evidence-based new service package vs. routine service package for smoking cessation to prevent high risk patients from cardiovascular diseases (CVD): study protocol for randomized controlled trial.

    Aung, Myo Nyein; Yuasa, Motoyuki; Lorga, Thaworn; Moolphate, Saiyud; Fukuda, Hiroshi; Kitajima, Tsutomu; Yokokawa, Hirohide; Minematsu, Kazuo; Tanimura, Susumu; Hiratsuka, Yoshimune; Ono, Koichi; Naunboonruang, Prissana; Thinuan, Payom; Kawai, Sachio; Suya, Yaoyanee; Chumvicharana, Somboon; Marui, Eiji

    2013-12-05

    Smoking cessation is a high-priority intervention to prevent CVD events and deaths in developing countries. While several interventions to stop smoking have been proved successful, the question of how to increase their effectiveness and practicality in developing countries remains. In this study, a newly devised evidence-based smoking cessation service package will be compared with the existing service in a randomized controlled trial within the community setting of Thailand. This randomized control trial will recruit 440 current smokers at CVD risk because of being diabetic and/or hypertensive. Informed, consented participants will be randomly allocated into the new service-package arm and the routine service arm. The study will take place in the non-communicable disease clinics of the Maetha District Hospital, Lampang, northern Thailand. The new smoking-cessation service-package comprises (1) regular patient motivation and coaching from the same primary care nurse over a 3-month period; (2) monthly application of piCO + smokerlyzer to sustain motivation of smoker's quitting attempt and provide positive feedback over a 3-month period; (3) assistance by an assigned family member; (4) nicotine replacement chewing gum to relieve withdrawal symptoms. This new service will be compared with the traditional routine service comprising the 5A approach in a 1-year follow-up. Participants who consent to participate in the study but refuse to attempt quitting smoking will be allocated to the non-randomized arm, where they will be just followed up and monitored. Primary outcome of the study is smoking cessation rate at 1-year follow-up proven by breath analysis measuring carbomonoxide in parts per million in expired air. Secondary outcomes are smoking cessation rate at the 6-month follow-up, blood pressure and heart rate, CVD risk according to the Framingham general cardiovascular risk score, CVD events and deaths at the 12-month follow-up, and the cost-effectiveness of the

  17. Globalization – Chances or Risks

    MĂDĂLINA ANTOANETA RĂDOI

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available There are for and against arguments as regards the process of globalization. But what is globalization: a concept, a reality or a state as such? We can consider that globalization reflects the natural continuity of a process that appeared a long time ago and that has evolved ever since or a new phenomenon that was generated by the speed with which new technology and information flow. Milton Friedman, a fervent supporter of globalization, gives an answer to the question “what is globalization”; according to him, “globalization is not a simple tendency or phantasy but rather an international system. It is the new system that has replaced the Cold War system and that, like the former one, has its own laws and logic, being able to directly or indirectly influence today’s politics, the environment, geopolitics and the economy of every country in the world.” (Friedman, 2000. Globalization represents: the unlimited ascend of technology, the free flow of information, the annihilation of territorial limits, the uniformity of economy, the free flow of capital, the mobility of the person, as well as a political form of organization that aims at a future global government.

  18. A cost-benefit analysis of programmatic use of CVD 103-HgR live oral cholera vaccine in a high-risk population.

    Cookson, S T; Stamboulian, D; Demonte, J; Quero, L; Martinez de Arquiza, C; Aleman, A; Lepetic, A; Levine, M M

    1997-02-01

    Cholera spread to Latin America in 1991; subsequently, cholera vaccination was considered as an interim intervention until long-term solutions involving improved water supplies and sanitation could be introduced. Three successive summer cholera outbreaks in northern Argentina and the licensing of the new single-dose oral cholera vaccine, CVD 103-HgR, raised questions of the cost and benefit of using this new vaccine. This study explored the potential benefits to the Argentine Ministry of Health of treatment costs averted, versus the costs of vaccination with CVD 103-HgR in the relatively confined population of northern Argentina affected by the cholera outbreaks. Water supplies and sanitation in this area are poor but a credible infrastructure for vaccine delivery exists. In our cost-benefit model of a 3-year period (1992-1994) with an annual incidence of 2.5 case-patients per 1000 population and assumptions of vaccine efficacy of 75% and coverage of 75%, vaccination of targeted high risk groups would prevent 1265 cases. Assuming a cost of US$602 per treated case and of US$1.50 per dose of vaccine, the total discounted savings from use of vaccine in the targeted groups would be US$132,100. The projected savings would be altered less by vaccine coverage (range 75-90%) or efficacy (60-85%) changes than by disease incidence changes. Our analysis underestimated the true costs of cholera in Argentina because we included only medical expenditures; Indirect losses to trade and tourism had the greatest economic impact. However, vaccination with CVD 103-HgR was still cost-beneficial in the base case.

  19. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  20. Global Drought Proportional Economic Loss Risk Deciles

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Proportional Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of drought hazard economic loss as proportions of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per...

  1. Endothelin type B (ETB) receptors: friend or foe in the pathogenesis of pre-eclampsia and future cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk?

    Mirabito Colafella, Katrina M

    2018-01-16

    In a recent issue of Clinical Science, Stanhewicz et al. investigated persistent microvascular dysfunction in women up to 16 months postpartum. The authors found sensitivity to the pressor effects of endothelin-1 (ET-1) was enhanced when compared with women who had a normotensive pregnancy. Importantly, the authors demonstrated that this effect was mediated via the endothelin type B (ET B ) receptors. Therefore, the present study highlights the possibility that alterations in the localization of the ET B receptor contributes to the pathogenesis of pre-eclampsia and future cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Currently, there is great interest in the role of the endothelin system in pre-eclampsia. Targetting the endothelin system, potentially by modulating upstream pathways to prevent ET B receptor dysfunction, may improve health outcomes for women and their offspring during pre-eclampsia and later life. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Portland Press Limited on behalf of the Biochemical Society.

  2. Globalization, Work, and Cardiovascular Disease.

    Schnall, Peter L; Dobson, Marnie; Landsbergis, Paul

    2016-10-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD), a global epidemic, is responsible for about 30% of all deaths worldwide. While mortality rates from CVD have been mostly declining in the advanced industrialized nations, CVD risk factors, including hypertension, obesity, and diabetes, have been on the increase everywhere. Researchers investigating the social causes of CVD have produced a robust body of evidence documenting the relationships between the work environment and CVD, including through the mechanisms of psychosocial work stressors. We review the empirical evidence linking work, psychosocial stressors, and CVD. These work stressors can produce chronic biologic arousal and promote unhealthy behaviors and thus, increased CVD risk. We offer a theoretical model that illustrates how economic globalization influences the labor market and work organization in high-income countries, which, in turn, exacerbates job characteristics, such as demands, low job control, effort-reward imbalance, job insecurity, and long work hours. There is also a growing interest in "upstream" factors among work stress researchers, including precarious employment, downsizing/restructuring, privatization, and lean production. We conclude with suggestions for future epidemiologic research on the role of work in the development of CVD, as well as policy recommendations for prevention of work-related CVD. © The Author(s) 2016.

  3. Global Risk of Nuclear Terrorism

    Emily Diez

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of nuclear terrorism, a threat that President Obama called "the gravest danger we face," has signaled a paradigm shift in international security. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, sensitive nuclear technologies and materials have become increasingly available. Globalization and the inadequate enforcement of treaties and export controls have allowed the proliferation of nuclear weapons materials. Today, international terrorist organizations seek to employ weapons of mass destruction (WMD as a means to influence national policies around the world. AlQaida spokesman Suleiman Abu Gheith declared that in order to balance the injustices that have been inflicted on the Muslim population worldwide, al-Qaida's new objective is "to kill 4 million Americans–2 million of them children." As political scientist Graham Allison notes, this could be achieved with either 1,334 attacks similar in magnitude to those of 9/11, or one nuclear bomb.Building a nuclear program is an arduous task that requires tacit knowledge, the recruitment of nuclear scientists, engineers, and machinists, and the resources and time to obtain nuclear materials and components. While it is unlikely that terrorist organizations have the capacity to develop full-fledged programs in the near term, terrorist development and acquisition of nuclear weapons remains a long-term threat that requires international action.

  4. Global drivers of future river flood risk

    Winsemius, Hessel C.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Bouwman, Arno; Jongman, Brenden; Kwadijk, Jaap C. J.; Ligtvoet, Willem; Lucas, Paul L.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Ward, Philip J.

    2016-04-01

    Understanding global future river flood risk is a prerequisite for the quantification of climate change impacts and planning effective adaptation strategies. Existing global flood risk projections fail to integrate the combined dynamics of expected socio-economic development and climate change. We present the first global future river flood risk projections that separate the impacts of climate change and socio-economic development. The projections are based on an ensemble of climate model outputs, socio-economic scenarios, and a state-of-the-art hydrologic river flood model combined with socio-economic impact models. Globally, absolute damage may increase by up to a factor of 20 by the end of the century without action. Countries in Southeast Asia face a severe increase in flood risk. Although climate change contributes significantly to the increase in risk in Southeast Asia, we show that it is dwarfed by the effect of socio-economic growth, even after normalization for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. African countries face a strong increase in risk mainly due to socio-economic change. However, when normalized to GDP, climate change becomes by far the strongest driver. Both high- and low-income countries may benefit greatly from investing in adaptation measures, for which our analysis provides a basis.

  5. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  6. Cross-cultural adaptation, content validation, and reliability of the Nigerian Composite Lifestyle CVD Risk Factors Questionnaire for adolescents among Yoruba rural adolescents in Nigeria.

    Odunaiya, Nse A; Louw, Quinette A; Grimmer, Karen

    2017-06-01

    Assessment of lifestyle risk factors must be culturally- and contextually relevant and available in local languages. This paper reports on a study which aimed to cross culturally adapt a composite lifestyle cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors questionnaire into an African language (Yoruba) and testing some of its psychometric properties such as content validity and test retest reliability in comparison to the original English version. This study utilized a cross sectional design. Translation of the English version of the questionnaire into Yoruba was undertaken using the guideline by Beaton et al. The translated instrument was presented to 21 rural adolescents to assess comprehensibility and clarity using a sample of convenience. A test retest reliability was conducted among 150 rural adolescents using a purposive sampling. Data was analyzed using intraclass correlation (ICC ) model 3, Cohen kappa statistics and prevalence rates. ICC ranged between 0.4-0.8. The Yoruba version was completed 15-20 minutes and was reported to be culturally appropriate and acceptable for rural Nigerian adolescents. The Yoruba translation of the Nigerian composite lifestyle risk factors questionnaire performs at least as well as the original English version in terms of content validity and reliability. It took a shorter time to complete therefore may be more relevant to rural adolescents.

  7. Effects of isoflavone-containing soya protein on ex vivo cholesterol efflux, vascular function and blood markers of CVD risk in adults with moderately elevated blood pressure: a dose-response randomised controlled trial.

    Richter, Chesney K; Skulas-Ray, Ann C; Fleming, Jennifer A; Link, Christina J; Mukherjea, Ratna; Krul, Elaine S; Kris-Etherton, Penny M

    2017-05-01

    Emerging CVD risk factors (e.g. HDL function and central haemodynamics) may account for residual CVD risk experienced by individuals who meet LDL-cholesterol and blood pressure (BP) targets. Recent evidence suggests that these emerging risk factors can be modified by polyphenol-rich interventions such as soya, but additional research is needed. This study was designed to investigate the effects of an isoflavone-containing soya protein isolate (delivering 25 and 50 g/d soya protein) on HDL function (i.e. ex vivo cholesterol efflux), macrovascular function and blood markers of CVD risk. Middle-aged adults (n 20; mean age=51·6 (sem 6·6) years) with moderately elevated brachial BP (mean systolic BP=129 (sem 9) mmHg; mean diastolic BP=82·5 (sem 8·4) mmHg) consumed 0 (control), 25 and 50 g/d soya protein in a randomised cross-over design. Soya and control powders were consumed for 6 weeks each with a 2-week compliance break between treatment periods. Blood samples and vascular function measures were obtained at baseline and following each supplementation period. Supplementation with 50 g/d soya protein significantly reduced brachial diastolic BP (-2·3 mmHg) compared with 25 g/d soya protein (Tukey-adjusted P=0·03) but not the control. Soya supplementation did not improve ex vivo cholesterol efflux, macrovascular function or other blood markers of CVD risk compared with the carbohydrate-matched control. Additional research is needed to clarify whether effects on these CVD risk factors depend on the relative health of participants and/or equol producing capacity.

  8. Behavioral Counseling to Promote a Healthful Diet and Physical Activity for CVD Prevention in Adults with Risk Factors

    Understanding Task Force Recommendations Behavioral Counseling to Promote a Healthful Diet and Physical Activity for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention in Adults with Cardiovascular Risk Factors The U.S. Preventive ...

  9. Associations between dairy protein intake and body weight and risk markers of diabetes and CVD during weight maintenance

    Bendtsen, Line Quist; Lorenzen, Janne Kunchel; Larsen, Thomas Meinert

    2014-01-01

    Dairy products have previously been reported to be associated with beneficial effects on body weight and metabolic risk markers. Moreover, primary data from the Diet, Obesity and Genes (DiOGenes) study indicate a weight-maintaining effect of a high-protein-low-glycaemic index diet. The objective ...

  10. Chronic ingestion of flavan-3-ols and isoflavones improves insulin sensitivity and lipoprotein status and attenuates estimated 10-year CVD risk in medicated postmenopausal women with type 2 diabetes: a 1-year, double-blind, randomized, controlled trial.

    Curtis, Peter J; Sampson, Mike; Potter, John; Dhatariya, Ketan; Kroon, Paul A; Cassidy, Aedín

    2012-02-01

    To assess the effect of dietary flavonoids on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in postmenopausal women with type 2 diabetes on established statin and hypoglycemic therapy. Despite being medicated, patients with type 2 diabetes have elevated CVD risk, particularly postmenopausal women. Although dietary flavonoids have been shown to reduce CVD risk factors in healthy participants, no long-term trials have examined the additional benefits of flavonoids to CVD risk in medicated postmenopausal women with type 2 diabetes. We conducted a parallel-design, placebo-controlled trial with type 2 diabetic patients randomized to consume 27 g/day (split dose) flavonoid-enriched chocolate (containing 850 mg flavan-3-ols [90 mg epicatechin] and 100 mg isoflavones [aglycone equivalents)]/day) or matched placebo for 1 year. Ninety-three patients completed the trial, and adherence was high (flavonoid 91.3%; placebo 91.6%). Compared with the placebo group, the combined flavonoid intervention resulted in a significant reduction in estimated peripheral insulin resistance (homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance [HOMA-IR] -0.3 ± 0.2; P = 0.004) and improvement in insulin sensitivity (quantitative insulin sensitivity index [QUICKI] 0.003 ± 0.00; P = 0.04) as a result of a significant decrease in insulin levels (-0.8 ± 0.5 mU/L; P = 0.02). Significant reductions in total cholesterol:HDL-cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio (-0.2 ± 0.1; P = 0.01) and LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) (-0.1 ± 0.1 mmol/L; P = 0.04) were also observed. Estimated 10-year total coronary heart disease risk (derived from UK Prospective Diabetes Study algorithm) was attenuated after flavonoid intervention (flavonoid +0.1 ± 0.3 vs. placebo 1.1 ± 0.3; P = 0.02). No effect on blood pressure, HbA(1c), or glucose was observed. One-year intervention with flavan-3-ols and isoflavones improved biomarkers of CVD risk, highlighting the additional benefit of flavonoids to standard drug therapy in managing CVD risk in

  11. Applying Health Locus of Control and Latent Class Modelling to food and physical activity choices affecting CVD risk.

    Grisolía, José M; Longo, Alberto; Hutchinson, George; Kee, Frank

    2015-05-01

    Health Locus of Control (HLC) classifies our beliefs about the connection between our actions and health outcomes (Skinner, 1996) into three categories: "internal control", corresponding to health being the result of an individual's effort and habits; "control by powerful others", whereby health depends on others, such as doctors; and "chance control", according to which health depends on fate and chance. Using Choice Experiments we investigate the relationship between HLC and willingness to change lifestyle, in terms of eating habits, physical activity and associated cardiovascular disease risk, in a 384 person sample representative of the 40-65 aged population of Northern Ireland administered between February and July 2011. Using latent class analysis we identify three discrete classes of people based on their HLC: the first class is sceptical about their capacity to control their health and certain unhealthy habits. Despite being unsatisfied with their situation, they are reluctant to accept behaviour changes. The second is a group of individuals unhappy with their current situation but willing to change through exercise and diet. Finally, a group of healthy optimists is identified, who are satisfied with their current situation but happy to take more physical activity and improve their diet. Our findings show that any policy designed to modify people's health related behaviour should consider the needs of this sceptical class which represents a considerable proportion of the population in the region. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Health benefits of reducing sugar-sweetened beverage intake in high risk populations of California: results from the cardiovascular disease (CVD policy model.

    Tekeshe A Mekonnen

    Full Text Available Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB has risen over the past two decades, with over 10 million Californians drinking one or more SSB per day. High SSB intake is associated with risk of type 2 diabetes, obesity, hypertension, and coronary heart disease (CHD. Reduction of SSB intake and the potential impact on health outcomes in California and among racial, ethnic, and low-income sub-groups has not been quantified.We projected the impact of reduced SSB consumption on health outcomes among all Californians and California subpopulations from 2013 to 2022. We used the CVD Policy Model - CA, an established computer simulation of diabetes and heart disease adapted to California. We modeled a reduction in SSB intake by 10-20% as has been projected to result from proposed penny-per-ounce excise tax on SSB and modeled varying effects of this reduction on health parameters including body mass index, blood pressure, and diabetes risk. We projected avoided cases of diabetes and CHD, and associated health care cost savings in 2012 US dollars.Over the next decade, a 10-20% SSB consumption reduction is projected to result in a 1.8-3.4% decline in the new cases of diabetes and an additional drop of 0.5-1% in incident CHD cases and 0.5-0.9% in total myocardial infarctions. The greatest reductions are expected in African Americans, Mexican Americans, and those with limited income regardless of race and ethnicity. This reduction in SSB consumption is projected to yield $320-620 million in medical cost savings associated with diabetes cases averted and an additional savings of $14-27 million in diabetes-related CHD costs avoided.A reduction of SSB consumption could yield substantial population health benefits and cost savings for California. In particular, racial, ethnic, and low-income subgroups of California could reap the greatest health benefits.

  13. Diets high in resistant starch increase plasma levels of trimethylamine-N-oxide, a gut microbiome metabolite associated with CVD risk

    Bergeron, Nathalie; Williams, Paul T.; Lamendella, Regina; Faghihnia, Nastaran; Grube, Alyssa; Li, Xinmin; Wang, Zeneng; Knight, Rob; Jansson, Janet K.; Hazen, Stanley L.; Krauss, Ronald M.

    2016-12-20

    Production of trimethylamine-N-oxide (TMAO), a biomarker of CVD risk, is dependent on intestinal microbiota, but little is known of dietary conditions promoting changes in gut microbial communities. Resistant starches (RS) alter the human microbiota. We sought to determine whether diets varying in RS and carbohydrate (CHO) content affect plasma TMAO levels. We also assessed postprandial glucose and insulin responses and plasma lipid changes to diets high and low in RS. In a cross-over trial, fifty-two men and women consumed a 2-week baseline diet (41 percentage of energy (%E) CHO, 40 % fat, 19 % protein), followed by 2-week high- and low-RS diets separated by 2-week washouts. RS diets were assigned at random within the context of higher (51–53 %E)v. lower CHO (39–40 %E) intake. Measurements were obtained in the fasting state and, for glucose and insulin, during a meal test matching the composition of the assigned diet. With lower CHO intake, plasma TMAO, carnitine, betaine andγ-butyrobetaine concentrations were higher after the high-v. low-RS diet (P<0·01 each). These metabolites were not differentially affected by highv. low RS when CHO intake was high. Although the high-RS meal reduced postprandial insulin and glucose responses when CHO intake was low (P<0·01 each), RS did not affect fasting lipids, lipoproteins, glucose or insulin irrespective of dietary CHO content. In conclusion, a lower-CHO diet high in RS was associated with higher plasma TMAO levels. These findings, together with the absence of change in fasting lipids, suggest that short-term high-RS diets do not improve markers of cardiometabolic health.

  14. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  15. CVD in nuclear energy

    Nickel, H.

    1981-08-01

    CVD-deposited pyrocarbon, especially the coatings of nuclear fuel kernels show a structure depending on many parameters such as deposition temperature, nature and pressure of the pyrolysis gas, nature of the substrate, geometry of the deposition system, etc. Because of the variety of pyrocarbon different characterization methods have been developed or qualified for this new application. Additionally classical characterization procedures are available. Beside theoretical aspects concerning the formation and deposition mechanism of pyrocarbon from the gas phase the behaviour of such coatings under irradiation with fast neutrons is discussed. (orig.) [de

  16. Demographic controls of future global fire risk

    Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.

    2016-08-01

    Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

  17. Changing Global Risk Landscape - Challenges for Risk Management (Invited)

    Wenzel, F.

    2009-12-01

    The exponentially growing losses related to natural disasters on a global scale reflect a changing risk landscape that is characterized by the influence of climate change and a growing population, particularly in urban agglomerations and coastal zones. In consequence of these trends we witness (a) new hazards such as landslides due to dwindling permafrost, new patterns of strong precipitation and related floods, potential for tropical cyclones in the Mediterranean, sea level rise and others; (b) new risks related to large numbers of people in very dense urban areas, and risks related to the vulnerability of infrastructure such as energy supply, water supply, transportation, communication, etc. (c) extreme events with unprecedented size and implications. An appropriate answer to these challenges goes beyond classical views of risk assessment and protection. It must include an understanding of risk as changing with time so that risk assessment needs to be supplemented by risk monitoring. It requires decision making under high uncertainty. The risks (i.e. potentials for future losses) of extreme events are not only high but also very difficult to quantify, as they are characterized by high levels of uncertainty. Uncertainties relate to frequency, time of occurrence, strength and impact of extreme events but also to the coping capacities of society in response to them. The characterization, quantification, reduction in the extent possible of the uncertainties is an inherent topic of extreme event research. However, they will not disappear, so a rational approach to extreme events must include more than reducing uncertainties. It requires us to assess and rate the irreducible uncertainties, to evaluate options for mitigation under large uncertainties, and their communication to societal sectors. Thus scientist need to develop methodologies that aim at a rational approach to extreme events associated with high levels of uncertainty.

  18. Contemporary Management and Control of Uncomplicated Hypertension in Canada: Insight From the Primary Care Audit of Global Risk Management (PARADIGM) Study.

    Gupta, Milan; Szmitko, Paul; Singh, Narendra; Tsigoulis, Michelle; Kajil, Mahesh; Stone, James

    2015-05-01

    Although clinical practice guidelines for the management of hypertension exist in Canada, the rate of contemporary blood pressure (BP) control remains unclear. In the Primary Care Audit of Global Risk Management (PARADIGM) study, 3015 healthy, middle-aged Canadians, free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) or diabetes were evaluated. In this analysis, we characterized the CVD risk factors, treatment patterns, and BP control rates in subjects with uncomplicated hypertension. A total of 917 subjects (30.4%) had a diagnosis of hypertension. The median age was 59 ± 8 years. The mean treated systolic/diastolic BP were 134 ± 14 mm Hg/82 ± 9 mm Hg, respectively. CVD risk factors included past/current smoking (35.9%), abdominal obesity (62.5%), and dyslipidemia (59.4%). Using the Framingham Risk Score, 20.4%, 41.0%, and 38.5% of the subjects were at low, intermediate, and high risk, respectively. Of the 88% with treated hypertension, 46.9%, 38.7%, and 14.3% received 1, 2, or ≥3 drugs, respectively. The rate of BP control was 57.4% (systolic BP Risk Score, and was lower in patients with metabolic syndrome vs those without (P risk factors are prevalent in Canadians with uncomplicated hypertension. BP control was modest (57.4%) and was lowest in patients prescribed diuretic monotherapy and in those at highest CVD risk. Despite the success of national hypertension strategies, enhanced efforts are warranted to improve BP control in Canada. Copyright © 2015 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. The effect of oat β-glucan on LDL-cholesterol, non-HDL-cholesterol and apoB for CVD risk reduction: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised-controlled trials.

    Ho, Hoang V T; Sievenpiper, John L; Zurbau, Andreea; Blanco Mejia, Sonia; Jovanovski, Elena; Au-Yeung, Fei; Jenkins, Alexandra L; Vuksan, Vladimir

    2016-10-01

    Oats are a rich source of β-glucan, a viscous, soluble fibre recognised for its cholesterol-lowering properties, and are associated with reduced risk of CVD. Our objective was to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised-controlled trials (RCT) investigating the cholesterol-lowering potential of oat β-glucan on LDL-cholesterol, non-HDL-cholesterol and apoB for the risk reduction of CVD. MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL and Cochrane CENTRAL were searched. We included RCT of ≥3 weeks of follow-up, assessing the effect of diets enriched with oat β-glucan compared with controlled diets on LDL-cholesterol, non-HDL-cholesterol or apoB. Two independent reviewers extracted data and assessed study quality and risk of bias. Data were pooled using the generic inverse-variance method with random effects models and expressed as mean differences with 95 % CI. Heterogeneity was assessed by the Cochran's Q statistic and quantified by the I 2-statistic. In total, fifty-eight trials (n 3974) were included. A median dose of 3·5 g/d of oat β-glucan significantly lowered LDL-cholesterol (-0·19; 95 % CI -0·23, -0·14 mmol/l, Pcholesterol (-0·20; 95 % CI -0·26, -0·15 mmol/l, PLDL-cholesterol (I 2=79 %) and non-HDL-cholesterol (I 2=99 %). Pooled analyses showed that oat β-glucan has a lowering effect on LDL-cholesterol, non-HDL-cholesterol and apoB. Inclusion of oat-containing foods may be a strategy for achieving targets in CVD reduction.

  20. A framework for global river flood risk assessments

    Winsemius, H.C.; van Beek, L.P.H.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/14749799X; Jongman, B.; Ward, P.J.; Bouwman, A.

    2013-01-01

    There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and

  1. Global prevalence and major risk factors of diabetic retinopathy

    Yau, Joanne W Y; Rogers, Sophie L; Kawasaki, Ryo

    2012-01-01

    To examine the global prevalence and major risk factors for diabetic retinopathy (DR) and vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR) among people with diabetes.......To examine the global prevalence and major risk factors for diabetic retinopathy (DR) and vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR) among people with diabetes....

  2. The evolution of global disaster risk assessments: from hazard to global change

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2013-04-01

    The perception of disaster risk as a dynamic process interlinked with global change is a fairly recent concept. It gradually emerged as an evolution from new scientific theories, currents of thinking and lessons learned from large disasters since the 1970s. The interest was further heighten, in the mid-1980s, by the Chernobyl nuclear accident and the discovery of the ozone layer hole, both bringing awareness that dangerous hazards can generate global impacts. The creation of the UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) and the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990 reinforced the interest for global risk assessment. First global risk models including hazard, exposure and vulnerability components were available since mid-2000s. Since then increased computation power and more refined datasets resolution, led to more numerous and sophisticated global risk models. This article presents a recent history of global disaster risk models, the current status of researches for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR 2013) and future challenges and limitations for the development of next generation global disaster risk models.

  3. Screening of cardiovascular risk factors among workers of a ...

    user

    workplace and the global risk among workers of a. Construction ... Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a public health problem with ... are rare in the workplace and there is a virtual absence of ... a reality in workplace, the more threatening due to.

  4. Public policy and risk financing strategies for global catastrophe risk management - the role of global risk initiatives

    McSharry, Patrick; Mitchell, Andrew; Anderson, Rebecca

    2010-05-01

    Decision-makers in both public and private organisations depend on accurate data and scientific understanding to adequately address climate change and the impact of extreme events. The financial impacts of catastrophes on populations and infrastructure can be offset through effective risk transfer mechanisms, structured to reflect the specific perils and levels of exposure to be covered. Optimal strategies depend on the likely socio-econonomic impact, the institutional framework, the overall objectives of the covers placed and the level of both the frequency and severity of loss potential expected. The diversity of approaches across different countries has been documented by the Spanish "Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros". We discuss why international public/private partnerships are necessary for addressing the risk of natural catastrophes. International initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the World Forum of Catastrophe Programmes (WFCP) can provide effective guidelines for constructing natural catastrophe schemes. The World Bank has been instrumental in the creation of many of the existing schemes such as the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and the Mongolian Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program. We review existing schemes and report on best practice in relation to providing protection against natural catastrophe perils. The suitability of catastrophe modelling approaches to support schemes across the world are discussed and we identify opportunities to improve risk assessment for such schemes through transparent frameworks for quantifying, pricing, sharing and financing catastrophe risk on a local and global basis.

  5. Global Cardiovascular Risk Assessment by Family Physicians in Suez Canal University-Family Medicine Centers-Egypt.

    Nour-Eldein, Hebatallah; Abdelsalam, Shimaa A; Nasr, Gamila M; Abdelwahed, Hassan A

    2013-01-01

    The close sustained contact of family physician with their patients and local community makes preventive care an integral part of their routine work. Most cardiovascular diseases (CVD) can be prevented by addressing their risk factors. There are several guidelines that recommend different CV risk assessment tools to support CV prevention strategies. This study aimed to assess awareness and attitude of global CV risk assessment and use of their tools by family physicians; aiming to improve CV prevention service. The current study is a cross-sectional descriptive analytic. Sixty-five family physicians were asked to respond to, validated anonymous questionnaire to collect data about characteristics of family physicians, their awareness, attitude, current use, barriers, and recommendations of global CV risk assessment. Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 18 was used for data entry and analysis. Awareness of guidelines of global CV risk assessment was relatively higher regarding the American guidelines (30.8%) than that recommended by World Health Organization (WHO) for Egypt (20.2%). 50.8% of participants had favorable attitude. There was statistical significant relationship between attitude scores and physician characteristics; age (P = 0.003), qualification (P = 0.001) and number of patients seen per week (P = 0.009). Routine use of global CV risk assessment tools was reported only (23%) by family physicians. Relative higher attitude scores than use of global CV risk assessment tools in practice. The most frequent barriers were related to lack of resources and shortage in training/skills and the raised suggestions were towards training.

  6. On the governance of global and catastrophic risks

    Faber, Michael Havbro

    2011-01-01

    The focus of the present paper regards the identification and treatment of critical issues in the process of societal decision making concerning management of global and catastrophic risks. Taking basis in recent works by the author, the paper in particular addresses: 1) Which are the most relevant...... hazards in a holistic global perspective and how may these be categorised in view of strategies for their treatment?; 2) How might robust societal decisions on risk management subject to large uncertainties be formally supported?; 3) How may available economic resources be prioritised for the purpose...... of sustainable and global life safety and health improvements? Finally, new results and perspectives are presented on the issue of allocation of resources for the purpose of improving global public health and a discussion on global risk governance concludes the paper....

  7. The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis

    Trigg, M.A.; Birch, C.E.; Neal, J.C.; Bates, P.D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C.C.; Yamazaki, D.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Pappenberger, F.; Dutra, E.; Ward, P.J.; Winsemius, H.C.; Salamon, P.; Dottori, F.; Rudari, R.; Kappes, M.S.; Simpson, A.L.; Hadzilacos, G.; Fewtrell, T.J.

    2016-01-01

    Quantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate flood risk globally to better allow consistent and equitable

  8. Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Bates, Paul; De Groeve, Tom; Muis, Sanne; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Rudari, Roberto; Mark, Trigg; Winsemius, Hessel

    2016-04-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742

  9. Foreign exchange risk in terms of global financial crisis

    Michał Buszko

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Fx risk is one of the most important types of risk of financial activity. In practice, this risk comprises several risk aspects related to currencies exchanging, however most often it is identified with unexpected changes of their prices. In terms of the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, the fx risk has raised significantly, revealing a high daily volatility, increased spreads and the reversal of long-term exchange rate trends. Such increased risk especially influenced emerging markets economies, including Poland. Its consequence was quick strengthening of Polish currency at the beginning of the global crisis followed by a very sudden fall of its value. This event led to a substantial increase of banking risk, investment funds and corporate operations. It changed the structure of GDP sources as well as generated huge losses for exporting companies, using currency options hedging strategies.

  10. [Integrated Management Area of Vascular Risk: A new organisational model for global control of risk factors].

    Armario, P; Jericó, C; Vila, L; Freixa, R; Martin-Castillejos, C; Rotllan, M

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD), is a major cause of morbidity and mortality that increases the cost of care. Currently there is a low degree of control of the main cardiovascular risk factors, although we have a good therapeutic arsenal. To achieve the improvement of this reality, a good coordination and multidisciplinary participation are essential. The development of new organizational models such as the Integrated Management Area of Vascular Risk can facilitate the therapeutic harmonization and unification of the health messages offered by different levels of care, based on clinical practice guidelines, in order to provide patient-centred integrated care. Copyright © 2016 SEH-LELHA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  11. Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

    Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

    2013-12-01

    In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change

  12. Measuring Producers' Risk Preferences: A Global Risk Attitude Construct

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Garcia, P.

    2001-01-01

    In applied agricultural economic research various risk-attitude elicitation techniques are used. Here, we investigate whether risk-attitude measures rooted in the expected utility framework are related to measures rooted in the multi-item scale framework. Using a second-order factor analytical

  13. Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2017-04-01

    Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL

  14. Association between low education and higher global cardiovascular risk.

    Di Chiara, Tiziana; Scaglione, Alessandra; Corrao, Salvatore; Argano, Christiano; Pinto, Antonio; Scaglione, Rosario

    2015-05-01

    This study was designed to evaluate the impact of educational status on global cardiovascular risk in a southern Italian urban population. The study population consisted of 488 consecutive outpatients aged 18 years and older. Educational status was categorized according to the number of years of formal education as follows: (1) low education group (education group (10-15 years). In both groups, cardiometabolic comorbidities (obesity, visceral obesity, diabetes, dyslipidemia, metabolic syndrome, microalbuminuria, left ventricular hypertrophy) and global cardiovascular risk, according to international guidelines, were analyzed. Left ventricular mass index and ejection fraction by echocardiography and E/A ratio, by pulsed-wave Doppler, were calculated. The low education group was characterized by a significantly higher prevalence of patients with visceral obesity (P=.021), hypertension (P=.010), metabolic syndrome (P=.000), and microalbuminuria (P=.000) and greater global cardiovascular risk (P=.000). Significantly increased levels of microalbuminuria (P=.000) and significantly decreased values of E/A ratio (P=.000) were also detected in the low education group. Global cardiovascular risk correlated directly with waist-to-hip ratio (P=.010), microalbuminuria (P=.015), and the metabolic syndrome (P>.012) and inversely with educational status (P=.000). Education was independently (P=.000) associated with global cardiovascular risk. These data indicate a strong association between low education and cardiometabolic comorbidities suitable to influence the evolution of chronic degenerative diseases. Preventive strategies need to be more efficient and more effective in this patient population. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Aqueduct: a methodology to measure and communicate global water risks

    Gassert, Francis; Reig, Paul

    2013-04-01

    The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores and includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. Indicators are selected based on relevance to water users, availability and robustness of global data sources, and expert consultation, and are collected from existing datasets or derived from a Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) based integrated water balance model. Indicators are normalized using a threshold approach, and composite scores are computed using a linear aggregation scheme that allows for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. By providing consistent scores across the globe, the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables rapid comparison across diverse aspects of water risk. Companies can use this information to prioritize actions, investors to leverage financial interest to improve water management, and governments to engage with the private sector to seek solutions for more equitable and sustainable water governance. The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables practical applications of scientific data

  16. Cardiovascular Disease Prevalence and Risk Factors of Persons with Mental Retardation

    Draheim, Christopher C.

    2006-01-01

    This paper reviews the recent literature on cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevalence, CVD-related mortality, physiological CVD risk factors, and behavioral CVD risk factors in adults with mental retardation (MR). The literature on the potential influences of modifiable behavioral CVD risk factors and the physiological CVD risk factors are also…

  17. The globalization of risk and risk perception: why we need a new model of risk communication for vaccines.

    Larson, Heidi; Brocard Paterson, Pauline; Erondu, Ngozi

    2012-11-01

    Risk communication and vaccines is complex and the nature of risk perception is changing, with perceptions converging, evolving and having impacts well beyond specific geographic localities and points in time, especially when amplified through the Internet and other modes of global communication. This article examines the globalization of risk perceptions and their impacts, including the example of measles and the globalization of measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine risk perceptions, and calls for a new, more holistic model of risk assessment, risk communication and risk mitigation, embedded in an ongoing process of risk management for vaccines and immunization programmes. It envisions risk communication as an ongoing process that includes trust-building strategies hand-in-hand with operational and policy strategies needed to mitigate and manage vaccine-related risks, as well as perceptions of risk.

  18. CVD - main concepts, applications and restrictions

    Bliznakovska, B.; Milosevski, M.; Krawczynski, S.; Meixner, C.; Koetter, H.R.

    1993-01-01

    Despite of the fact that the existing literature covering the last two decades is plentiful with data related to CVD, this document is an attempt to provide to a reader a concise information about the nature of CVD technique at production of technologically important materials as well as to point at special references. The text is devided into three separate sections. The first section, The Main Features of CVD, is intended to give a complete comprehensive picture of the CVD technique through process description and characterization. The basic principles of thermodynamics, CVD chemical reactions classification, CVD chemical kinetics aspects and physics of CVD (with particular attention on the gas-flow phenomena) are included. As an additional aspect, in CVD unavoidable aspect however, the role of the coating/substrate compatibility on the overall process was outlined. The second section, CVD Equipment, concerns on the pecularities of the complete CVD unit pointing out the individual significances of the separate parts, i.e. pumping system, reactor chamber, control system. The aim of this section is to create to a reader a basic understanding of the arising problems but connected to be actual CVD performance. As a final goal of this review the reader's attention is turned upon the CVD applications for production of an up-to-date important class of coatings such as multilayer coatings. (orig.)

  19. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available on two of the most important underlying factors supporting the ecosystem: productivity and hypoxia afiecting harmful algae blooms (HABs) and the rock lobsters. The risk regimes are a function of two time scales | a ‘high’ wind stress in early summer... is a condition which can lead to various negative impacts depending on the particular marine life, for instance rock lobsters stranding. The exact deflnitions of the two seasonal occurrences resulting in the risk event, ‘high’ wind stress in ‘early...

  20. Cardiovascular disease, diabetes and established risk factors among populations of sub-Saharan African descent in Europe: a literature review

    Agyemang, Charles; Addo, Juliet; Bhopal, Raj; de-Graft Aikins, Ama; Stronks, Karien

    2009-01-01

    ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Most European countries are ethnically and culturally diverse. Globally, cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death. The major risk factors for CVD have been well established. This picture holds true for all regions of the world and in different ethnic groups.

  1. CVD diamond detectors and dosimeters

    Manfredotti, C.; Fizzotti, F.; LoGiudice, A.; Paolini, C.; Oliviero, P.; Vittone, E.; Torino Univ., Torino

    2002-01-01

    Natural diamond, because of its well-known properties of tissue-equivalence, has recorded a wide spreading use in radiotherapy planning with electron linear accelerators. Artificial diamond dosimeters, as obtained by Chemical Vapour Deposition (CVD) could be capable to offer the same performances and they can be prepared in different volumes and shapes. The dosimeter sensitivity per unit volume may be easily proved to be better than standard ionization microchamber. We have prepared in our laboratory CVD diamond microchamber (diamond tips) in emispherical shape with an external diameter of 200 μm, which can be used both as X-ray beam profilometers and as microdosimeters for small field applications like stereotaxy and also for in vivo applications. These dosimeters, which are obtained on a wire substrate that could be either metallic or SiC or even graphite, display good performances also as ion or synchrotron X-rays detectors

  2. A framework for global river flood risk assessments

    Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Jongman, B.; Ward, P. J.; Bouwman, A.

    2013-05-01

    There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from the EM

  3. A framework for global river flood risk assessments

    H. C. Winsemius

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population. The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE. We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from

  4. Thrombotic risk assessment in APS: the Global APS Score (GAPSS).

    Sciascia, S; Bertolaccini, M L

    2014-10-01

    Recently, we developed a risk score for antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) (Global APS Score or GAPSS). This score derived from the combination of independent risk factors for thrombosis and pregnancy loss, taking into account the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) profile (criteria and non-criteria aPL), the conventional cardiovascular risk factors, and the autoimmune antibodies profile. We demonstrate that risk profile in APS can be successfully assessed, suggesting that GAPSS can be a potential quantitative marker of APS-related clinical manifestations. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  5. Benchmarking Global Food Safety Performances: The Era of Risk Intelligence.

    Valleé, Jean-Charles Le; Charlebois, Sylvain

    2015-10-01

    Food safety data segmentation and limitations hamper the world's ability to select, build up, monitor, and evaluate food safety performance. Currently, there is no metric that captures the entire food safety system, and performance data are not collected strategically on a global scale. Therefore, food safety benchmarking is essential not only to help monitor ongoing performance but also to inform continued food safety system design, adoption, and implementation toward more efficient and effective food safety preparedness, responsiveness, and accountability. This comparative study identifies and evaluates common elements among global food safety systems. It provides an overall world ranking of food safety performance for 17 Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) countries, illustrated by 10 indicators organized across three food safety risk governance domains: risk assessment (chemical risks, microbial risks, and national reporting on food consumption), risk management (national food safety capacities, food recalls, food traceability, and radionuclides standards), and risk communication (allergenic risks, labeling, and public trust). Results show all countries have very high food safety standards, but Canada and Ireland, followed by France, earned excellent grades relative to their peers. However, any subsequent global ranking study should consider the development of survey instruments to gather adequate and comparable national evidence on food safety.

  6. FINANCIAL RISK COVERAGE IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBALIZATION FINANCIAL MARKETS

    María Esperanza González-del Foyo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In a globalized environment, the increase of risks that assume the international commerce makes necessary the to articulate the instruments of covering. The enterprise activity and the country in matter will condition in a great measure the type of covering that be needed to contract, the principal consist in: knowing the risks, evaluate its incidence, decide to cover it or assume it and in both cases the right choise most be the aplication of the strategy thatt be more efective. The States put under disposition of the enterprises a series of public mechanismes to help them to promote its internationalitation . One of the pillars where this politics rest is the use of mechanismes of riskes cover in the internacional commerce. In correspondence with the previous, to reflect on the aplications of the financial risk and the formulation of strategies to cover them in conditions of globalization of the financial markets, constitute the objetive of this article. 

  7. Sovereign Credit Risk in Latin America and Global Common Factors

    Manuel Agosin Trumper; Juan Díaz Maureira

    2012-01-01

    This paper studies the importance of global common factors in the evolution of sovereign credit risk in a group of emerging economies (15 countries in Latin America for which daily data are available on sovereign credit spreads and CDS quotations from the beginning of 2007 until February 2012). We arrive at three principal results. First, there is robust evidence for the existence of a common factor in the evolution of the two measurements of sovereign credit risk that we use. Second, the com...

  8. Communicating health risks to the public: a global perspective

    Hillier, Dawn

    2006-01-01

    ... under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988, to be identified as the author of this work. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Communicating health risks to the public : a global perspective 1. Health risk communication I. Hillier, Dawn, 1950- 614.4'4 ISBN-13: 978-0-566-08672-4 ISBN-10: 0 566 08672 7 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publ...

  9. Improving Cardiovascular Risk Prediction--Biomarkers and Beyond; Implications for Astronaut Selection and Monitoring During Prolonged Spaceflight

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Our primary objective is to identify and validate novel strategies to enhance global cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction over two time windows: 1) 10-20...

  10. Education and hypertension: impact on global cardiovascular risk.

    Di Chiara, Tiziana; Scaglione, Alessandra; Corrao, Salvatore; Argano, Christiano; Pinto, Antonio; Scaglione, Rosario

    2017-10-01

    Improving cardiovascular risk prediction continues to be a major challenge and effective prevention of cardiovascular disease. Accordingly, several studies have recently reported on the role of cardiovascular risk education. This study was designed to evaluate the impact of education on global cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients. The study population consisted of 223 consecutive hypertensive outpatients. Their educational status was categorized according to the number of years of formal education as follows: (1) low education (less than 10 years) and (2) medium-high education (10-15 years). In both groups, cardiometabolic comorbidities, global cardiovascular risk and echocardiographic measurements were analysed. Less educated hypertensive subjects were characterized by a significantly higher prevalence of patients with metabolic syndrome (MetS) (p educated hypertensive subjects. In the same subjects, a significant increase in microalbuminuria (MA) (p education (r = -0.45; p Education was independently (p education may be considered the best predictor of global cardiovascular risk in hypertensives and thus has to be evaluated in the strategies of hypertension and cardiovascular risk management.

  11. ENSO impacts on flood risk at the global scale

    Ward, Philip; Dettinger, Michael; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Winsemius, Hessel

    2014-05-01

    We present the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on society and the economy, via relationships between ENSO and the hydrological cycle. We also discuss ways in which this knowledge can be used in disaster risk management and risk reduction. This contribution provides the most recent results of an ongoing 4-year collaborative research initiative to assess and map the impacts of large scale interannual climate variability on flood hazard and risk at the global scale. We have examined anomalies in flood risk between ENSO phases, whereby flood risk is expressed in terms of indicators such as: annual expected damage; annual expected affected population; annual expected affected Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We show that large anomalies in flood risk occur during El Niño or La Niña years in basins covering large parts of the Earth's surface. These anomalies reach statistical significance river basins covering almost two-thirds of the Earth's surface. Particularly strong anomalies exist in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially La Niña anomalies), and parts of South America. We relate these anomalies to possible causal relationships between ENSO and flood hazard, using both modelled and observed data on flood occurrence and extremity. The implications for flood risk management are many-fold. In those regions where disaster risk is strongly influenced by ENSO, the potential predictably of ENSO could be used to develop probabilistic flood risk projections with lead times up to several seasons. Such data could be used by the insurance industry in managing risk portfolios and by multinational companies for assessing the robustness of their supply chains to potential flood-related interruptions. Seasonal forecasts of ENSO influence of peak flows could also allow for improved flood early warning and regulation by dam operators, which could also reduce overall risks

  12. Expanding the definition of hypertension to incorporate global cardiovascular risk.

    Khosla, Nitin; Black, Henry R

    2006-10-01

    Recent epidemiologic analyses have changed the way that hypertension is viewed. Cardiovascular risk has been found to be elevated at levels of blood pressure previously believed to be normal and not imparting additional risk. Furthermore, the approach to hypertension has been shifted from viewing and treating it in isolation to a more comprehensive approach that incorporates a focus on global cardiovascular risk and the risk factors commonly associated with having an elevated blood pressure. However, control rates not only for hypertension but also for associated risk factors, such as hyperlipidemia and diabetes, remain abysmal, providing an even greater challenge to providers of care. To change this alarming trend, physicians must become aggressive in using the available armamentarium of lifestyle modifications and drugs in treating hypertension and other risk factors that increase the burden of atherosclerosis.

  13. Dapagliflozin Compared to DPP-4 inhibitors is Associated with Lower Risk of Cardiovascular Events and All-cause Mortality in Type 2 Diabetes Patients (CVD-REAL Nordic)

    Persson, F; Nyström, Thomas; Jørgensen, Marit Eika

    2018-01-01

    AIMS: To compare the sodium glucose-cotransporter-2-inhibitor (SGLT-2i) dapagliflozin versus dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) regarding risk associations of MACE (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke or cardiovascular [CV] mortality), hospital events for heart failure (HHF), ...

  14. Youth, Risk, and Equity in a Global World

    Hull, Glynda; Zacher, Jessica; Hibbert, Liesel

    2009-01-01

    This article reviews educational literatures that should be relevant to helping individuals understand and improve the lot and life chances of girls and boys who are at risk in a global world. The authors began this review with a vignette from India, a country whose linguistic and ethnic diversity, whose international reputation for advances in…

  15. Global prevalence and major risk factors of diabetic retinopathy

    J.W.Y. Yau (Joanne W.); S.L. Rogers (Sophie); Y. Kawasaki; E.L. Lamoureux (Ecosse); J.W. Kowalski (Jonathan); T. Bek (Toke); S.-J. Chen (Shih-Jen); J.M. Dekker (Jacqueline); A.E. Fletcher (Astrid E.); J. Grauslund (Jakob); R.C.G. Haffner; U. Hamman (Ute); M.K. Ikram (Kamran); T. Kayama (Takamasa); B.E.K. Klein (Barbara); B.E.K. Klein (Barbara); S. Krishnaiah (Sannapaneni); K. Mayurasakorn (Korapat); J.P. O'Hare (Joseph); T. Orchard; M. Porta; M. Rema (Mohan); M.S. Roy (Monique); T. Sharma (Tarun); S-M. Saw (Seang-Mei); H. Taylor (Hugh); J.M. Tielsch (James); D. Varma (Dhiraj); J.J. Wang (Jie Jin); N. Wang (Ningli); S. West (Sheila); L. Zu (Liang); M. Yasuda (Maya); X. Zhang (Xinzhi); P. Mitchell (Paul); T.Y. Wong (Tien Yin)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractOBJECTIVE - To examine the global prevalence and major risk factors for diabetic retinopathy (DR) and vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR) among people with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - A pooled analysis using individual participant data from population-based studies

  16. Population risk perceptions of global warming in Australia.

    Agho, Kingsley; Stevens, Garry; Taylor, Mel; Barr, Margo; Raphael, Beverley

    2010-11-01

    According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), global warming has the potential to dramatically disrupt some of life's essential requirements for health, water, air and food. Understanding how Australians perceive the risk of global warming is essential for climate change policy and planning. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of, and socio-demographic factors associated with, high levels of perceived likelihood that global warming would worsen, concern for self and family and reported behaviour changes. A module of questions on global warming was incorporated into the New South Wales Population Health Survey in the second quarter of 2007. This Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) was completed by a representative sample of 2004 adults. The weighted sample was comparable to the Australian population. Bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were conducted to examine the socio-demographic and general health factors. Overall 62.1% perceived that global warming was likely to worsen; 56.3% were very or extremely concerned that they or their family would be directly affected by global warming; and 77.6% stated that they had made some level of change to the way they lived their lives, because of the possibility of global warming. After controlling for confounding factors, multivariate analyses revealed that those with high levels of psychological distress were 2.17 (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR)=2.17; CI: 1.16-4.03; P=0.015) times more likely to be concerned about global warming than those with low psychological distress levels. Those with a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in urban areas were significantly more likely to think that global warming would worsen compared to those without a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in the rural areas. Females were significantly (AOR=1.69; CI: 1.23-2.33; P=0.001) more likely to report they had made changes to the way they lived their lives due to the risk of

  17. Hydroclimatic risks and uncertainty in the global power sector

    Gidden, Matthew; Byers, Edward; Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Parkinson, Simon; Raptis, Catherine; Rogelj, Joeri; Satoh, Yusuke; van Vliet, Michelle; Wada, Yoshide; Krey, Volker; Langan, Simon; Riahi, Keywan

    2017-04-01

    Approximately 80% of the world's electricity supply depends on reliable water resources. Thermoelectric and hydropower plants have been impacted by low flows and floods in recent years, notably in the US, Brazil, France, and China, amongst other countries. The dependence on reliable flows imputes a large vulnerability to the electricity supply system due to hydrological variability and the impacts of climate change. Using an updated dataset of global electricity capacity with global climate and hydrological data from the ISI-MIP project, we present an overview analysis of power sector vulnerability to hydroclimatic risks, including low river flows and peak flows. We show how electricity generation in individual countries and transboundary river basins can be impacted, helping decision-makers identify key at-risk geographical regions. Furthermore, our use of a multi-model ensemble of climate and hydrological models allows us to quantify the uncertainty of projected impacts, such that basin-level risks and uncertainty can be compared.

  18. Income inequality and cardiovascular disease risk factors in a highly unequal country: a fixed-effects analysis from South Africa.

    Adjaye-Gbewonyo, Kafui; Kawachi, Ichiro; Subramanian, S V; Avendano, Mauricio

    2018-03-06

    Chronic stress associated with high income inequality has been hypothesized to increase CVD risk and other adverse health outcomes. However, most evidence comes from high-income countries, and there is limited evidence on the link between income inequality and biomarkers of chronic stress and risk for CVD. This study examines how changes in income inequality over recent years relate to changes in CVD risk factors in South Africa, home to some of the highest levels of income inequality globally. We linked longitudinal data from 9356 individuals interviewed in the 2008 and 2012 National Income Dynamics Study to district-level Gini coefficients estimated from census and survey data. We investigated whether subnational district income inequality was associated with several modifiable risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in South Africa, including body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, blood pressure, physical inactivity, smoking, and high alcohol consumption. We ran individual fixed-effects models to examine the association between changes in income inequality and changes in CVD risk factors over time. Linear models were used for continuous metabolic outcomes while conditional Poisson models were used to estimate risk ratios for dichotomous behavioral outcomes. Both income inequality and prevalence of most CVD risk factors increased over the period of study. In longitudinal fixed-effects models, changes in district Gini coefficients were not significantly associated with changes in CVD risk factors. Our findings do not support the hypothesis that subnational district income inequality is associated with CVD risk factors within the high-inequality setting of South Africa.

  19. Adiposity in Children and CVD Risk: ApoB48 Has a Stronger Association With Central Fat Than Classic Lipid Markers.

    Wilke, Michaelann S; Maximova, Katerina; Henderson, Mélanie; Levy, Emile; Paradis, Gilles; O'Loughlin, Jennifer; Tremblay, Angelo; Proctor, Spencer D

    2016-07-01

    Atherosclerotic vascular disease begins in childhood and while progression is multifactorial, obesity in early life is an important risk factor for its development. To determine whether fasting apoB48 remnant lipoproteins (relative to classic lipid markers), is elevated with increasing central adiposity over time in a cohort of Canadian children with a family history of obesity. Data were drawn from the ongoing prospective cohort of 630 Caucasian families in Québec, Canada, recruited to assess determinants and effects of childhood obesity (Québec Adiposity and Lifestyle Investigation in Youth [QUALITY]cohort). Children who attended baseline and first followup clinic visits (n =570; age 9.6 y). Trunk fat mass was determined by dual energy x-ray absorptiometry. Central fat mass index was calculated as CFMI = trunk fat mass/height(2) (kg/m(2)) and groups created (CFMI children who transitioned from lower- to moderate-CFMI groups (ΔapoB48 = 1.5 μg/mL). For every 1 kg/m(2) increase in central adiposity over the 2-y period, an increase in apoB48 was 14-fold greater among children with lower baseline CFMI, compared with higher CFMI. Increased fasting concentrations of apoB48 may be representative of changes in adiposity at lower levels of central fat (early periods of risk).

  20. Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots: Transition to a Regional Approach

    Lerner-Lam, A.; Chen, R.; Dilley, M.

    2005-12-01

    The "Hotspots Project" is a collaborative study of the global distribution and occurrence of multiple natural hazards and the associated exposures of populations and their economic output. In this study we assess the global risks of two disaster-related outcomes: mortality and economic losses. We estimate risk levels by combining hazard exposure with historical vulnerability for two indicators of elements at risk-gridded population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per unit area - for six major natural hazards: earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, floods, drought, and cyclones. By calculating relative risks for each grid cell rather than for countries as a whole, we are able to estimate risk levels at sub-national scales. These can then be used to estimate aggregate relative multiple hazard risk at regional and national scales. Mortality-related risks are assessed on a 2.5' x 2.5' latitude-longitude grid of global population (GPW Version 3). Economic risks are assessed at the same resolution for gridded GDP per unit area, using World Bank estimates of GDP based on purchasing power parity. Global hazard data were compiled from multiple sources. The project collaborated directly with UNDP and UNEP, the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) at Columbia, and the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) in the creation of data sets for several hazards for which global data sets did not previously exist. Drought, flood and volcano hazards are characterized in terms of event frequency, storms by frequency and severity, earthquakes by frequency and ground acceleration exceedance probability, and landslides by an index derived from probability of occurrence. The global analysis undertaken in this project is clearly limited by issues of scale as well as by the availability and quality of data. For some hazards, there exist only 15- to 25-year global records with relatively crude spatial information. Data on historical disaster losses, and particularly on

  1. The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

    Smolka, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

  2. Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased.

    Shearer, Peter M; Stark, Philip B

    2012-01-17

    The recent elevated rate of large earthquakes has fueled concern that the underlying global rate of earthquake activity has increased, which would have important implications for assessments of seismic hazard and our understanding of how faults interact. We examine the timing of large (magnitude M≥7) earthquakes from 1900 to the present, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks. The global rate of M≥8 earthquakes has been at a record high roughly since 2004, but rates have been almost as high before, and the rate of smaller earthquakes is close to its historical average. Some features of the global catalog are improbable in retrospect, but so are some features of most random sequences--if the features are selected after looking at the data. For a variety of magnitude cutoffs and three statistical tests, the global catalog, with local clusters removed, is not distinguishable from a homogeneous Poisson process. Moreover, no plausible physical mechanism predicts real changes in the underlying global rate of large events. Together these facts suggest that the global risk of large earthquakes is no higher today than it has been in the past.

  3. Delaminated Transfer of CVD Graphene

    Clavijo, Alexis; Mao, Jinhai; Tilak, Nikhil; Altvater, Michael; Andrei, Eva

    Single layer graphene is commonly synthesized by dissociation of a carbonaceous gas at high temperatures in the presence of a metallic catalyst in a process known as Chemical Vapor Deposition or CVD. Although it is possible to achieve high quality graphene by CVD, the standard transfer technique of etching away the metallic catalyst is wasteful and jeopardizes the quality of the graphene film by contamination from etchants. Thus, development of a clean transfer technique and preservation of the parent substrate remain prominent hurdles to overcome. In this study, we employ a copper pretreatment technique and optimized parameters for growth of high quality single layer graphene at atmospheric pressure. We address the transfer challenge by utilizing the adhesive properties between a polymer film and graphene to achieve etchant-free transfer of graphene films from a copper substrate. Based on this concept we developed a technique for dry delamination and transferring of graphene to hexagonal boron nitride substrates, which produced high quality graphene films while at the same time preserving the integrity of the copper catalyst for reuse. DOE-FG02-99ER45742, Ronald E. McNair Postbaccalaureate Achievement Program.

  4. Cardiovascular diseases in Ghana within the context of globalization.

    Ofori-Asenso, Richard; Garcia, Daireen

    2016-02-01

    This paper discusses how globalization and its elements are influencing health dynamics and in particular Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in Ghana. It assesses the growing burden of CVDs and its relationship with globalization. It further describes the conceptual framework on which to view the impact of globalization on CVDs in Ghana. It also set out the dimensions of the relationship between CVD risk factors and globalization. The paper concludes with a discussion on strategies for tackling the growing burden of CVDs in Ghana.

  5. Premature menopause linked to CVD and osteoporosis.

    Park, Claire; Overton, Caroline

    2010-03-01

    Premature menopause affects 1% of women under the age of 40, the usual age of the menopause is 51. Most women will present with irregular periods or no periods at all with or without climacteric symptoms. Around 10% of women present with primary amenorrhoea. A careful history and examination are required. It is important to ask specifically about previous chemotherapy or radiotherapy and to look for signs of androgen excess e.g. polycystic ovarian syndrome, adrenal problems e.g. galactorrhoea and thyroid goitres. Once pregnancy has been excluded, a progestagen challenge test can be performed in primary care. Norethisterone 5 mg tds po for ten days or alternatively medroxyprogesterone acetate 10 mg daily for ten days is prescribed. A withdrawal bleed within a few days of stopping the norethisterone indicates the presence of oestrogen and bleeding more than a few drops is considered a positive withdrawal bleed. The absence of a bleed indicates low levels of oestrogen, putting the woman at risk of CVD and osteoporosis. FSH levels above 30 IU/l are an indicator that the ovaries are failing and the menopause is approaching or has occurred. It should be remembered that FSH levels fluctuate during the month and from one month to the next, so a minimum of two measurements should be made at least four to six weeks apart. The presence of a bleed should not exclude premature menopause as part of the differential diagnosis as there can be varying and unpredictable ovarian function remaining. The progestagen challenge test should not be used alone, but in conjunction with FSH, LH and oestradiol. There is no treatment for premature menopause. Women desiring pregnancy should be referred to a fertility clinic and discussion of egg donation. Women not wishing to become pregnant should be prescribed HRT until the age of 50 to control symptoms of oestrogen deficiency and reduce the risks of osteoporosis and CVD.

  6. Aqueduct: an interactive tool to empower global water risk assessment

    Reig, Paul; Gassert, Francis

    2013-04-01

    The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. It organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores, which allow for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. All information is compiled into an online, open access platform, from which decision-makers can view indicators, scores, and maps, conduct global risk assessments, and export data and shape files for further analysis. Companies can use this tool to evaluate their exposure to water risks across operations and supply chains, investors to assess water-related risks in their portfolio, and public-sector actors to better understand water security. Additionally, the open nature of the data and maps allow other organizations to build off of this effort with new research, for example in the areas of water-energy or water-food relationships. This presentation will showcase the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas online tool and the features and functionalities it offers, as well as explain how it can be used for both private and public sector applications. The session will

  7. Global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

  8. Swiss Re Global Flood Hazard Zones: Know your flood risk

    Vinukollu, R. K.; Castaldi, A.; Mehlhorn, J.

    2012-12-01

    Floods, among all natural disasters, have a great damage potential. On a global basis, there is strong evidence of increase in the number of people affected and economic losses due to floods. For example, global insured flood losses have increased by 12% every year since 1970 and this is expected to further increase with growing exposure in the high risk areas close to rivers and coastlines. Recently, the insurance industry has been surprised by the large extent of losses, because most countries lack reliable hazard information. One example has been the 2011 Thailand floods where millions of people were affected and the total economic losses were 30 billion USD. In order to assess the flood risk across different regions and countries, the flood team at Swiss Re based on a Geomorphologic Regression approach, developed in house and patented, produced global maps of flood zones. Input data for the study was obtained from NASA's Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) elevation data, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) and HydroSHEDS. The underlying assumptions of the approach are that naturally flowing rivers shape their channel and flood plain according to basin inherent forces and characteristics and that the flood water extent strongly depends on the shape of the flood plain. On the basis of the catchment characteristics, the model finally calculates the probability of a location to be flooded or not for a defined return period, which in the current study was set to 100 years. The data is produced at a 90-m resolution for latitudes 60S to 60N. This global product is now used in the insurance industry to inspect, inform and/or insure the flood risk across the world.

  9. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform: a geoportal to serve and share global data on risk to natural hazards

    G. Giuliani

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available With growing world population and concentration in urban and coastal areas, the exposure to natural hazards is increasing and results in higher risk of human and economic losses. Improving the identification of areas, population and assets potentially exposed to natural hazards is essential to reduce the consequences of such events. Disaster risk is a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Modelling risk at the global level requires accessing and processing a large number of data, from numerous collaborating centres.

    These data need to be easily updated, and there is a need for centralizing access to this information as well as simplifying its use for non GIS specialists. The Hyogo Framework for Action provides the mandate for data sharing, so that governments and international development agencies can take appropriate decision for disaster risk reduction.

    Timely access and easy integration of geospatial data are essential to support efforts in Disaster Risk Reduction. However various issues in data availability, accessibility and integration limit the use of such data. In consequence, a framework that facilitate sharing and exchange of geospatial data on natural hazards should improve decision-making process. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform is a highly interactive web-based GIS portal supported by a Spatial Data Infrastructure that offers free and interoperable access to more than 60 global data sets on nine types of natural hazards (tropical cyclones and related storm surges, drought, earthquakes, biomass fires, floods, landslides, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions and related exposure and risk. This application portrays an easy-to-use online interactive mapping interface so that users can easily work with it and seamlessly integrate data in their own data flow using fully compliant OGC Web Services (OWS.

  10. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform: a geoportal to serve and share global data on risk to natural hazards

    Giuliani, G.; Peduzzi, P.

    2011-01-01

    With growing world population and concentration in urban and coastal areas, the exposure to natural hazards is increasing and results in higher risk of human and economic losses. Improving the identification of areas, population and assets potentially exposed to natural hazards is essential to reduce the consequences of such events. Disaster risk is a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Modelling risk at the global level requires accessing and processing a large number of data, from numerous collaborating centres. These data need to be easily updated, and there is a need for centralizing access to this information as well as simplifying its use for non GIS specialists. The Hyogo Framework for Action provides the mandate for data sharing, so that governments and international development agencies can take appropriate decision for disaster risk reduction. Timely access and easy integration of geospatial data are essential to support efforts in Disaster Risk Reduction. However various issues in data availability, accessibility and integration limit the use of such data. In consequence, a framework that facilitate sharing and exchange of geospatial data on natural hazards should improve decision-making process. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform is a highly interactive web-based GIS portal supported by a Spatial Data Infrastructure that offers free and interoperable access to more than 60 global data sets on nine types of natural hazards (tropical cyclones and related storm surges, drought, earthquakes, biomass fires, floods, landslides, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions) and related exposure and risk. This application portrays an easy-to-use online interactive mapping interface so that users can easily work with it and seamlessly integrate data in their own data flow using fully compliant OGC Web Services (OWS).

  11. Investors’ Risk Appetite and Global Financial Market Conditions

    Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo

    2008-01-01

    A structural vector autoregression model is developed to analyze the dynamics of bond spreads among a sample of mature and developing countries during periods of financial stress in the last decade. The model identifies and quantifies the contribution on bond spreads from global market conditions (including funding liquidity, market liquidity, as well as credit and volatility risks), contagion effects, and idiosyncratic factors. While idiosyncratic factors explain a large amount of the change...

  12. An experimental system for flood risk forecasting at global scale

    Alfieri, L.; Dottori, F.; Kalas, M.; Lorini, V.; Bianchi, A.; Hirpa, F. A.; Feyen, L.; Salamon, P.

    2016-12-01

    Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by an increasing range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasts, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. To this end, we have developed an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment based on the daily forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The methodology translates GloFAS streamflow forecasts into event-based flood hazard maps based on the predicted flow magnitude and the forecast lead time and a database of flood hazard maps with global coverage. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information to derive flood risk. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To further increase the reliability of the proposed methodology we integrated model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification of impact forecasts. The preliminary tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management. In particular, the link with social media is crucial for improving the accuracy of impact predictions.

  13. Geography of current and future global mammal extinction risk.

    Ana D Davidson

    variation in the pressures faced by populations within the ranges of individual species. The added impacts from climate change may increase the susceptibility of at-risk species to extinction and expand the regions where mammals are most vulnerable globally.

  14. Geography of current and future global mammal extinction risk.

    Davidson, Ana D; Shoemaker, Kevin T; Weinstein, Ben; Costa, Gabriel C; Brooks, Thomas M; Ceballos, Gerardo; Radeloff, Volker C; Rondinini, Carlo; Graham, Catherine H

    2017-01-01

    pressures faced by populations within the ranges of individual species. The added impacts from climate change may increase the susceptibility of at-risk species to extinction and expand the regions where mammals are most vulnerable globally.

  15. Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

    Carter, P.

    2014-12-01

    This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline

  16. Landslide risk reduction strategies: an inventory for the Global South

    Maes, Jan; Kervyn, Matthieu; Vranken, Liesbet; Dewitte, Olivier; Vanmaercke, Matthias; Mertens, Kewan; Jacobs, Liesbet; Poesen, Jean

    2015-04-01

    Landslides constitute a serious problem globally. Moreover, landslide impact remains underestimated especially in the Global South. It is precisely there where the largest impact is experienced. An overview of measures taken to reduce risk of landslides in the Global South is however still lacking. Because in many countries of the Global South disaster risk reduction (DRR) is at an emerging stage, it is crucial to monitor the ongoing efforts (e.g. discussions on the Post-2015 Framework for DRR). The first objective of this study is to make an inventory of techniques and strategies that are applied to reduce risk from landslides in tropical countries. The second objective is to investigate what are the main bottlenecks for implementation of DRR strategies. In order to achieve these objectives, a review of both scientific and grey literature was conducted, supplemented with expert knowledge. The compilation of recommended and implemented DRR measures from landslide-prone tropical countries is based on an adapted classification proposed by the SafeLand project. According to Vaciago (2013), landslide risk can be reduced by either reducing the hazard, the vulnerability, the number or value of elements at risk or by sharing the residual risk. In addition, these measures can be combined with education and/or awareness raising and are influenced by governance structures and cultural beliefs. Global landslide datasets have been used to identify landslide-prone countries, augmented with region-specific datasets. Countries located in the tropics were selected in order to include landslide-prone countries with a different Human Development Index (HDI) but with a similar climate. Preliminary results support the statement made by Anderson (2013) that although the importance of shifting from post-disaster emergency actions to pre-disaster mitigation is acknowledged, in practice this paradigm shift seems rather limited. It is expected that this is especially the case in countries

  17. Visualization of the chains of risks under global climate change

    Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Sueyoshi, T.; Yoshimori, M.; Iwase, K.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Honda, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Masaki, Y.; Ito, A.; Iizumi, T.; Sakurai, G.; Okada, M.; Emori, S.; Oki, T.

    2014-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change possibly causes various impacts on human society and ecosystem. Here, we call possible damages or benefits caused by the future climate change as "climate risks". Many climate risks are closely interconnected with each other by direct cause-effect relationship. In this study, the major climate risks are comprehensively summarized based on the survey of studies in the literature using IPCC AR5 etc, and their cause-effect relationship are visualized by a "network diagram". This research is conducted by the collaboration between the experts of various fields, such as water, energy, agriculture, health, society, and eco-system under the project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). First, the climate risks are classified into 9 categories (water, energy, food, health, disaster, industry, society, ecosystem, and tipping elements). Second, researchers of these fields in our project survey the research articles, and pick up items of climate risks, and possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items. A long list of the climate risks is summarized into ~130, and that of possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items is summarized into ~300, because the network diagram would be illegible if the number of the risk items and cause-effect relationship is too large. Here, we only consider the risks that could occur if climate mitigation policies are not conducted. Finally, the chain of climate risks is visualized by creating a "network diagram" based on a network graph theory (Fruchtman & Reingold algorithm). Through the analysis of network diagram, we find that climate risks at various sectors are closely related. For example, the decrease in the precipitation under the global climate change possibly causes the decrease in river runoff and the decrease in soil moisture, which causes the changes in crop production. The changes in crop production can have an impact on society by

  18. Global Amphibian Extinction Risk Assessment for the Panzootic Chytrid Fungus

    Matthew C. Fisher

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Species are being lost at increasing rates due to anthropogenic effects, leading to the recognition that we are witnessing the onset of a sixth mass extinction. Emerging infectious disease has been shown to increase species loss and any attempts to reduce extinction rates need to squarely confront this challenge. Here, we develop a procedure for identifying amphibian species that are most at risk from the effects of chytridiomycosis by combining spatial analyses of key host life-history variables with the pathogen's predicted distribution. We apply our rule set to the known global diversity of amphibians in order to prioritize pecies that are most at risk of loss from disease emergence. This risk assessment shows where limited conservation funds are best deployed in order to prevent further loss of species by enabling ex situ amphibian salvage operations and focusing any potential disease mitigation projects.

  19. Treatment with liraglutide may improve markers of CVD reflected by reduced levels of apoB

    Engelbrechtsen, Line; Lundgren, J; Wewer Albrechtsen, Nicolai Jacob

    2017-01-01

    Background: Dislipidaemia and increased levels of apolipoprotein B (apoB) in individuals with obesity are risk factors for development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of weight loss and weight maintenance with and without liraglutide treatment ......B, despite similar body weight maintenance. Treatment with liraglutide may therefore reduce apoB levels and thus reflect lower CVD risk. Including apoB measurements in clinical practice when monitoring patients with dislipidemia or CVD might prove to be useful....

  20. Global health risks and cosmopolitisation: from emergence to interference.

    Figuié, Muriel

    2013-02-01

    According to Beck's 'World at Risk' theory, global risks push nations towards a cosmopolitisation of their health policy and open opportunities for a democratic turn. This article provides an empirical analysis of Beck's theory, based on the experience of Vietnamese authorities from 2003 to 2007 in managing the emerging avian flu virus. It shows how Vietnam's framing of avian flu has shifted, under the pressure from international organisations and the US administration, from an epizootic and zoonotic risk (or a classic risk) to a pandemic threat (or a late modern risk). Vietnam's response was part of its overall strategy to join the World Trade Organization and it was limited by Vietnam's defence of its sovereignty. This strategy has been successful for Vietnam but has limited the possibility of cosmopolitan and democratic transformations. The case study highlights the constructed dimension of risks of late modernity and their possible instrumentalisation: it minimises the role of a community of fear relative to a community of trade. © 2013 The Author. Sociology of Health & Illness © 2013 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness/Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  1. Global ocean conveyor lowers extinction risk in the deep sea

    Henry, Lea-Anne; Frank, Norbert; Hebbeln, Dierk; Wienberg, Claudia; Robinson, Laura; van de Flierdt, Tina; Dahl, Mikael; Douarin, Mélanie; Morrison, Cheryl L.; López Correa, Matthias; Rogers, Alex D.; Ruckelshausen, Mario; Roberts, J. Murray

    2014-06-01

    General paradigms of species extinction risk are urgently needed as global habitat loss and rapid climate change threaten Earth with what could be its sixth mass extinction. Using the stony coral Lophelia pertusa as a model organism with the potential for wide larval dispersal, we investigated how the global ocean conveyor drove an unprecedented post-glacial range expansion in Earth's largest biome, the deep sea. We compiled a unique ocean-scale dataset of published radiocarbon and uranium-series dates of fossil corals, the sedimentary protactinium-thorium record of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength, authigenic neodymium and lead isotopic ratios of circulation pathways, and coral biogeography, and integrated new Bayesian estimates of historic gene flow. Our compilation shows how the export of Southern Ocean and Mediterranean waters after the Younger Dryas 11.6 kyr ago simultaneously triggered two dispersal events in the western and eastern Atlantic respectively. Each pathway injected larvae from refugia into ocean currents powered by a re-invigorated AMOC that led to the fastest postglacial range expansion ever recorded, covering 7500 km in under 400 years. In addition to its role in modulating global climate, our study illuminates how the ocean conveyor creates broad geographic ranges that lower extinction risk in the deep sea.

  2. CVD diamond windows for infrared synchrotron applications

    Sussmann, R.S.; Pickles, C.S.J.; Brandon, J.R.; Wort, C.J.H.; Coe, S.E.; Wasenczuk, A.; Dodge, C.N.; Beale, A.C.; Krehan, A.J.; Dore, P.; Nucara, A.; Calvani, P.

    1998-01-01

    This paper describes the attributes that make diamond a unique material for infrared synchrotron beam experiments. New developments in diamond synthesised by Chemical Vapour Deposition (CVD) promise to extend the range of applications which have been hitherto limited by the availability and cost of large-size single-crystal diamond. Polycrystalline CVD diamond components such as large (100 mm) diameter windows with extremely good transparency over a wide spectral range are now commercially available. Properties of CVD diamond of relevance to optical applications, such as mechanical strength, thermal conductivity and absolute bulk absorption, are discussed. It is shown that although some of the properties of CVD diamond (similar to other polycrystalline industrial ceramics) are affected by the grain structure, currently produced CVD diamond optical components have the quality and performance required for numerous demanding applications

  3. GLObal RIsk MANagement system for plant operations GLORIMAN

    Silverman, Eugene B.

    2004-01-01

    Considerable effort has been expended by nuclear power plants in the preparation of their Independent Plant Evaluation (IPE) programs. The result of these projects is the generation of very useful information concerning plant operations, states, availability and risk. The potential application of this information is often unrealized due to the unwieldy form of the data as reported in the IPE. Plant personnel would benefit greatly from quick access to risk information as a means of supporting day-to-day decisions, but the information exists only in a difficult to understand and inaccessible form. There is a need to translate the costs invested in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) projects into a useable tool for plant personnel. This paper describes a software tool developed by ARD Corporation to be used by plants to assist in determining the operational risks and benefits associated with modifying the plant state during normal and off-normal operations for performing maintenance. This tool integrates a relational database with an easy-to-use graphical user interface and several unique software features. The result is a responsive, easy-to-understand tool that integrates an organization's PRA/IPE into the operational and maintenance needs of the station. The Global Risk Management System is designed to allow the user to evaluate the risk associated with current and proposed plant states. The impact of changes in plant configuration, operational modes and equipment availability are assessed from a risk management perspective, but displayed in an easy-to-understand form for personnel not familiar with risk methodology. Additionally, pipe and instrumentation drawings can be retrieved by the user and displayed as a reference tool. (author)

  4. Global risk of radioactive fallout after major nuclear reactor accidents

    Lelieveld, J.; Kunkel, D.; Lawrence, M.G.

    2012-01-01

    Major reactor accidents of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by ''rare''? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the cumulative, global risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents (the most severe ones on the International Nuclear Event Scale, INES 7), using particulate "1"3"7Cs and gaseous "1"3"1I as proxies for the fallout. Our results indicate that previously the occurrence of INES 7 major accidents and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated. Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute that on average, in the event of a major reactor accident of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90% of emitted "1"3"7Cs would be transported beyond 50 km and about 50% beyond 1000 km distance before being deposited. This corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and trans-boundary impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric removal processes of "1"3"7Cs and "1"3"1I are quite different, the radioactive contamination patterns over land and the human exposure due to deposition are computed to be similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in densely populated regions, notably in West Europe and South Asia, where a major reactor accident can subject around 30 million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce the national risk, though a large risk will still remain from the reactors in neighbouring countries.

  5. Asymmetric impacts of global risk appetite on the risk premium for an emerging market

    Kanlı, İbrahim Burak

    2008-05-01

    This paper analyzes the impact of global risk appetite on the risk premium utilizing high-frequency data. Taking the Turkish economy as our laboratory, we find that the risk premium volatility responds only to a worsening in the risk appetite for the Turkish economy, which is a result that we do not observe for the other emerging markets. Then, we investigate the role of current account dynamics on this asymmetric effect, by focusing also on an economy with similar current account performance. The empirical results find supporting evidence for the role of current account dynamics on the estimated asymmetry.

  6. Effectiveness of a national cardiovascular disease risk assessment program (NHS Health Check): results after one year.

    Artac, Macide; Dalton, Andrew R H; Majeed, Azeem; Car, Josip; Millett, Christopher

    2013-08-01

    We aimed to assess whether the National Health Service (NHS) Health Check, a systematic cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment and management program, was associated with reduction in CVD risk in attendees after one year. We extracted data from patients aged 40-74 years, with high estimated CVD risk, who were registered with general practices in a deprived, culturally diverse setting in England. We included 4748 patients at baseline (July 2008-November 2009), with 3712 at follow-up (December 2009-March 2011). We used a pre-post study design to assess changes in global CVD risk, individual CVD risk factors and statin prescription in patients with a complete and partial Health Check. There were significant reductions in mean CVD risk score (28.2%; 95% confidence interval (CI)=27.3-29.1 to 26.2%; 95% CI, 25.4-27.1), diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol levels and lipid ratios after one year in patients with a complete Health Check. Statin prescription increased from 14.0% (95% CI=11.9-16.0) to 60.6% (95% CI=57.7-63.5). The introduction of NHS Health Check was associated with significant but modest reductions in CVD risk among screened high-risk individuals. Further cost-effectiveness analysis and work accounting for uptake is required to assess whether the program can make significant changes to population health. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Risk-analysis of global climate tipping points

    Frieler, Katja; Meinshausen, Malte; Braun, N [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research e.V., Potsdam (Germany). PRIMAP Research Group; and others

    2012-09-15

    There are many elements of the Earth system that are expected to change gradually with increasing global warming. Changes might prove to be reversible after global warming returns to lower levels. But there are others that have the potential of showing a threshold behavior. This means that these changes would imply a transition between qualitatively disparate states which can be triggered by only small shifts in background climate (2). These changes are often expected not to be reversible by returning to the current level of warming. The reason for that is, that many of them are characterized by self-amplifying processes that could lead to a new internally stable state which is qualitatively different from before. There are different elements of the climate system that are already identified as potential tipping elements. This group contains the mass losses of the Greenland and the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet, the decline of the Arctic summer sea ice, different monsoon systems, the degradation of coral reefs, the dieback of the Amazon rainforest, the thawing of the permafrost regions as well as the release of methane hydrates (3). Crucially, these tipping elements have regional to global scale effects on human society, biodiversity and/or ecosystem services. Several examples may have a discernable effect on global climate through a large-scale positive feedback. This means they would further amplify the human induced climate change. These tipping elements pose risks comparable to risks found in other fields of human activity: high-impact events that have at least a few percent chance to occur classify as high-risk events. In many of these examples adaptation options are limited and prevention of occurrence may be a more viable strategy. Therefore, a better understanding of the processes driving tipping points is essential. There might be other tipping elements even more critical but not yet identified. These may also lie within our socio-economic systems that are

  8. A Hybrid Information Mining Approach for Knowledge Discovery in Cardiovascular Disease (CVD

    Stefania Pasanisi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The healthcare ambit is usually perceived as “information rich” yet “knowledge poor”. Nowadays, an unprecedented effort is underway to increase the use of business intelligence techniques to solve this problem. Heart disease (HD is a major cause of mortality in modern society. This paper analyzes the risk factors that have been identified in cardiovascular disease (CVD surveillance systems. The Heart Care study identifies attributes related to CVD risk (gender, age, smoking habit, etc. and other dependent variables that include a specific form of CVD (diabetes, hypertension, cardiac disease, etc.. In this paper, we combine Clustering, Association Rules, and Neural Networks for the assessment of heart-event-related risk factors, targeting the reduction of CVD risk. With the use of the K-means algorithm, significant groups of patients are found. Then, the Apriori algorithm is applied in order to understand the kinds of relations between the attributes within the dataset, first looking within the whole dataset and then refining the results through the subsets defined by the clusters. Finally, both results allow us to better define patients’ characteristics in order to make predictions about CVD risk with a Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network. The results obtained with the hybrid information mining approach indicate that it is an effective strategy for knowledge discovery concerning chronic diseases, particularly for CVD risk.

  9. Local to global: a collaborative approach to volcanic risk assessment

    Calder, Eliza; Loughlin, Sue; Barsotti, Sara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Jenkins, Susanna

    2017-04-01

    Volcanic risk assessments at all scales present challenges related to the multitude of volcanic hazards, data gaps (hazards and vulnerability in particular), model representation and resources. Volcanic hazards include lahars, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, tephra fall, ballistics, gas dispersal and also earthquakes, debris avalanches, tsunamis and more ... they can occur in different combinations and interact in different ways throughout the unrest, eruption and post-eruption period. Volcanoes and volcanic hazards also interact with other natural hazards (e.g. intense rainfall). Currently many hazards assessments consider the hazards from a single volcano but at national to regional scales the potential impacts of multiple volcanoes over time become important. The hazards that have the greatest tendency to affect large areas up to global scale are those transported in the atmosphere: volcanic particles and gases. Volcanic ash dispersal has the greatest potential to directly or indirectly affect the largest number of people worldwide, it is currently the only volcanic hazard for which a global assessment exists. The quantitative framework used (primarily at a regional scale) considers the hazard at a given location from any volcano. Flow hazards such as lahars and floods can have devastating impacts tens of kilometres from a source volcano and lahars can be devastating decades after an eruption has ended. Quantitative assessment of impacts is increasingly undertaken after eruptions to identify thresholds for damage and reduced functionality. Some hazards such as lava flows could be considered binary (totally destructive) but others (e.g. ash fall) have varying degrees of impact. Such assessments are needed to enhance available impact and vulnerability data. Currently, most studies focus on physical vulnerability but there is a growing emphasis on social vulnerability showing that it is highly variable and dynamic with pre-eruption socio

  10. Global recession and microfinance risk governance in developing countries

    Roberto Moro Visconti

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Global recession, started in 2008, is still proving an unresolved perfect storm and the financial crisis has affected also the real economy, creating widespread social unrest. Microfinance institutions (MFIs in developing countries seem however less affected by the worldwide turmoil, due to their segmentation and resilience to external shocks. Recession has a big impact on governance mechanisms, altering the equilibriums among different stakeholders and increasing the risk of investment returns; any governance improvement is highly welcome and recommended. No governance, no money for growth or bare survival. In the confused phase we are living in, at the moment there are not evident winners, but the underbanked poorest, unless properly supported, once again risk being the ultimate losers.

  11. Global risk & global challenges - Space as a game changer for socioeconomic sustainable development

    Lehnert, Christopher; Karlsson, Evelina; Giannopapa, Christina

    2017-11-01

    The world's societies at the beginning of the 21st century are better off than ever before. (Gapminder, 2015) At the same time, the world is also threatened by global challenges where space as a tool has and can play a pivotal role in meeting those challenges. The challenges range from climate change, over mass unemployment, to terrorism or migration - to name but a few. Space activities have started to respond to this changing world, not only by providing a deeper understanding of our universe, but by using space as an additional sphere and sector, through which humankind can increase and secure its wealth - it is thus game changing in the way we sustain humanity's existence. This paper is meant to capture this development. In the first part, an overview is given on the risks that humankind is facing. The second part describes the way that space can be used as a tool to prevent and manage these risks. The overview in the first part is based on the examination of the most recent reports and overall strategies of key International Governmental Organisations and Non-Governmental Organisations that are involved in agenda-setting, policy formulation and implementation. The second part includes an overview on current activities of the European Space Agency (ESA) that play a role in responding to these risks. To better understand ESA's activities that contain humanity's risks, a standard classification for risks management is used, which distinguishes between four components: Identification, Assessment, Management and Communication (Renn, 2005). The analysis reveals how space activities already today play a pivotal role in all four types of risk management. Space activities contribute very tangible to the management of risks through its space mission, but also in a more indirect way, as providing the technical backbone for stable and reliable cooperation in the international governance arena, and serve as crucial economic stimulator. The overall results show that space

  12. A global assessment of closed forests, deforestation and malaria risk

    GUERRA, C. A.; SNOW, R. W.; HAY, S. I.

    2011-01-01

    Global environmental change is expected to affect profoundly the transmission of the parasites that cause human malaria. Amongst the anthropogenic drivers of change, deforestation is arguably the most conspicuous, and its rate is projected to increase in the coming decades. The canonical epidemiological understanding is that deforestation increases malaria risk in Africa and the Americas and diminishes it in South–east Asia. Partial support for this position is provided here, through a systematic review of the published literature on deforestation, malaria and the relevant vector bionomics. By using recently updated boundaries for the spatial limits of malaria and remotely-sensed estimates of tree cover, it has been possible to determine the population at risk of malaria in closed forest, at least for those malaria-endemic countries that lie within the main blocks of tropical forest. Closed forests within areas of malaria risk cover approximately 1.5 million km2 in the Amazon region, 1.4 million km2 in Central Africa, 1.2 million km2 in the Western Pacific, and 0.7 million km2 in South–east Asia. The corresponding human populations at risk of malaria within these forests total 11.7 million, 18.7 million, 35.1 million and 70.1 million, respectively. By coupling these numbers with the country-specific rates of deforestation, it has been possible to rank malaria-endemic countries according to their potential for change in the population at risk of malaria, as the result of deforestation. The on-going research aimed at evaluating these relationships more quantitatively, through the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP), is highlighted. PMID:16630376

  13. CVD diamond for nuclear detection applications

    Bergonzo, P; Tromson, D; Mer, C; Guizard, B; Marshall, R D; Foulon, F

    2002-01-01

    Chemically vapour deposited (CVD) diamond is a remarkable material for the fabrication of radiation detectors. In fact, there exist several applications where other standard semiconductor detectors do not fulfil the specific requirements imposed by corrosive, hot and/or high radiation dose environments. The improvement of the electronic properties of CVD diamond has been under intensive investigations and led to the development of a few applications that are addressing specific industrial needs. Here, we report on CVD diamond-based detector developments and we describe how this material, even though of a polycrystalline nature, is readily of great interest for applications in the nuclear industry as well as for physics experiments. Improvements in the material synthesis as well as on device fabrication especially concern the synthesis of films that do not exhibit space charge build up effects which are often encountered in CVD diamond materials and that are highly detrimental for detection devices. On a pre-i...

  14. Surface coatings deposited by CVD and PVD

    Gabriel, H.M.

    1982-01-01

    The demand for wear and corrosion protective coatings is increasing due to economic facts. Deposition processes in gas atmospheres like the CVD and PVD processes attained a tremendous importance especially in the field of the deposition of thin hard refractory and ceramic coatings. CVD and PVD processes are reviewed in detail. Some examples of coating installations are shown and numerous applications are given to demonstrate the present state of the art. (orig.) [de

  15. CVD diamond for nuclear detection applications

    Bergonzo, P.; Brambilla, A.; Tromson, D.; Mer, C.; Guizard, B.; Marshall, R.D.; Foulon, F.

    2002-01-01

    Chemically vapour deposited (CVD) diamond is a remarkable material for the fabrication of radiation detectors. In fact, there exist several applications where other standard semiconductor detectors do not fulfil the specific requirements imposed by corrosive, hot and/or high radiation dose environments. The improvement of the electronic properties of CVD diamond has been under intensive investigations and led to the development of a few applications that are addressing specific industrial needs. Here, we report on CVD diamond-based detector developments and we describe how this material, even though of a polycrystalline nature, is readily of great interest for applications in the nuclear industry as well as for physics experiments. Improvements in the material synthesis as well as on device fabrication especially concern the synthesis of films that do not exhibit space charge build up effects which are often encountered in CVD diamond materials and that are highly detrimental for detection devices. On a pre-industrial basis, CVD diamond detectors have been fabricated for nuclear industry applications in hostile environments. Such devices can operate in harsh environments and overcome limitations encountered with the standard semiconductor materials. Of these, this paper presents devices for the monitoring of the alpha activity in corrosive nuclear waste solutions, such as those encountered in nuclear fuel assembly reprocessing facilities, as well as diamond-based thermal neutron detectors exhibiting a high neutron to gamma selectivity. All these demonstrate the effectiveness of a demanding industrial need that relies on the remarkable resilience of CVD diamond

  16. Risks in global natural gas markets: Investment, hedging and trade

    Egging, Ruud; Holz, Franziska

    2016-01-01

    Recent supply security concerns in Europe have revived interest into the natural gas market. We investigate infrastructure investment and trade in an imperfect market structure for various possible risks for both supply and demand. We focus on three possible scenarios in a stochastic global gas market model: (i) transit of Russian gas via Ukraine that may be disrupted from 2020 on; (ii) natural gas intensity of electricity generation in OECD countries that may lead to higher or lower natural gas demand after 2025; and (iii) availability of shale gas around the globe after 2030. We illustrate how the timing of investments is affected by inter-temporal hedging behavior of market agents, such as when LNG capacity provides ex-ante flexibility or an ex-post fallback option if domestic or nearby pipeline supply sources are low. Moreover, we find that investment in LNG capacities is more determined by demand side pull – due to higher needs in electric power generation – than by supply side push, e.g. higher shale gas supplies needing an outlet. We focus on Europe, North America, and China that are the world's most important gas consuming and supplying regions. - Highlights: •We use the stochastic variant of the multi-period Global Gas Model. •We investigate the effects of uncertainty in Russian exports, demand, and shale gas. •We find that LNG is preferred as hedging option in anticipation of uncertain events. •Pipelines may be chosen as recourse decision after uncertain events realized. •China will dominate the global natural gas market regardless the scenario.

  17. Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  18. Global risk of pharmaceutical contamination from highly populated developing countries.

    Rehman, Muhammad Saif Ur; Rashid, Naim; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Saif, Ameena; Ahmad, Nasir; Han, Jong-In

    2015-11-01

    Global pharmaceutical industry has relocated from the west to Asian countries to ensure competitive advantage. This industrial relocation has posed serious threats to the environment. The present study was carried out to assess the possible pharmaceutical contamination in the environment of emerging pharmaceutical manufacturing countries (Bangladesh, China, India and Pakistan). Although these countries have made tremendous progress in the pharmaceutical sector but most of their industrial units discharge wastewater into domestic sewage network without any treatment. The application of untreated wastewater (industrial and domestic) and biosolids (sewage sludge and manure) in agriculture causes the contamination of surface water, soil, groundwater, and the entire food web with pharmaceutical compounds (PCs), their metabolites and transformed products (TPs), and multidrug resistant microbes. This pharmaceutical contamination in Asian countries poses global risks via product export and international traveling. Several prospective research hypotheses including the development of new analytical methods to monitor these PCs/TPs and their metabolites, highly resistant microbial strains, and mixture toxicity as a consequence of pharmaceutical contamination in these emerging pharmaceutical exporters have also been proposed based on the available literature. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Climate change, global risks, challenges and decisions. Synthesis report

    Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Schellnhuber, H.J.

    2009-03-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009 (the 15th Conference of the Parties, COP-15) will be a critical step in developing a global response to the threat of climate change caused by human activities. The primary scientific input to those negotiations is the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2007. The IPCC report has already been instrumental in increasing both public and political awareness of the societal risks associated with unchecked emission of greenhouse gases. Since the production of the IPCC report, new knowledge has emerged that furthers understanding of the impacts of human influence on the climate and the response options and approaches that are available to tackle this complex issue. To bring this new knowledge together, the International Alliance of Research Universities organised an international scientific congress on climate change, Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions, which was held in Copenhagen from 10-12 March 2009. Participants came from nearly 80 different countries and contributed with more than 1400 scientific presentations. Abstracts for all of the scientific presentations made can be found at www.iop.org/EJ/volume/1755-1315/6, and a transcript of the closing plenary session can be found at environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/opinion/39126. This synthesis report presents an up-to-date overview of a broad range of research relevant to climate change - including fundamental climate science, the impacts of a changing climate on society and environment, and the many tools and approaches available to deal effectively with the challenge of climate change. (LN)

  20. Global review of open access risk assessment software packages valid for global or continental scale analysis

    Daniell, James; Simpson, Alanna; Gunasekara, Rashmin; Baca, Abigail; Schaefer, Andreas; Ishizawa, Oscar; Murnane, Rick; Tijssen, Annegien; Deparday, Vivien; Forni, Marc; Himmelfarb, Anne; Leder, Jan

    2015-04-01

    Over the past few decades, a plethora of open access software packages for the calculation of earthquake, volcanic, tsunami, storm surge, wind and flood have been produced globally. As part of the World Bank GFDRR Review released at the Understanding Risk 2014 Conference, over 80 such open access risk assessment software packages were examined. Commercial software was not considered in the evaluation. A preliminary analysis was used to determine whether the 80 models were currently supported and if they were open access. This process was used to select a subset of 31 models that include 8 earthquake models, 4 cyclone models, 11 flood models, and 8 storm surge/tsunami models for more detailed analysis. By using multi-criteria analysis (MCDA) and simple descriptions of the software uses, the review allows users to select a few relevant software packages for their own testing and development. The detailed analysis evaluated the models on the basis of over 100 criteria and provides a synopsis of available open access natural hazard risk modelling tools. In addition, volcano software packages have since been added making the compendium of risk software tools in excess of 100. There has been a huge increase in the quality and availability of open access/source software over the past few years. For example, private entities such as Deltares now have an open source policy regarding some flood models (NGHS). In addition, leaders in developing risk models in the public sector, such as Geoscience Australia (EQRM, TCRM, TsuDAT, AnuGA) or CAPRA (ERN-Flood, Hurricane, CRISIS2007 etc.), are launching and/or helping many other initiatives. As we achieve greater interoperability between modelling tools, we will also achieve a future wherein different open source and open access modelling tools will be increasingly connected and adapted towards unified multi-risk model platforms and highly customised solutions. It was seen that many software tools could be improved by enabling user

  1. Managing Food Quality Risk in Global Supply Chain: A Risk Management Framework

    Pablo Jose Arevalo Chavez

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Today, the food sector is one of the sectors most vulnerable to intentional contamination by debilitating agents [1]. Some cases of contaminated food have indicated that product quality risk is one of the vulnerabilities in the global supply chain. A series of company scandals, affecting reputation and causing the recall of products and increasing costs have hit the food industry. The obvious problem is that even a minor incident in one part of the chain can have disastrous effects on other parts of the supply chain. Thus, risks are transmitted through the chain. Even though the dangers from members in the supply chain are small, the cumulative effect becomes significant. The aim of this study is to propose an integrated supply chain risk management framework for practitioners that can provide directions for how to evaluate food quality risk in the global supply chain. For validating the proposed model in‐depth, a case study is conducted on a food SME distributor in Central America. The case study investigates how product quality risks are handled according to the proposed framework.

  2. Global water risks and national security: Building resilience (Invited)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2013-12-01

    The UN defines water security as the capacity of a population to safeguard sustainable access to adequate quantities of acceptable quality water for sustaining livelihoods, human well-being, and socio-economic development, for ensuring protection against water-borne pollution and water-related disasters, and for preserving ecosystems in a climate of peace and political stability. This definition highlights complex and interconnected challenges and underscores the centrality of water for environmental services and human aactivities. Global risks are expressed at the national level. The 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review and the 2010 National Security Strategy identify climate change as likely to trigger outcomes that will threaten U.S. security including how freshwater resources can become a security issue. Impacts will be felt on the National Security interest through water, food and energy security, and critical infrastructure. This recognition focuses the need to consider the rates of change in climate extremes, in the context of more traditional political, economic, and social indicators that inform security analyses. There is a long-standing academic debate over the extent to which resource constraints and environmental challenges lead to inter-state conflict. It is generally recognized that water resources as a security issue to date exists mainly at the substate level and has not led to physical conflict between nation states. In conflict and disaster zones, threats to water security increase through inequitable and difficult access to water supply and related services, which may aggravate existing social fragility, tensions, violence, and conflict. This paper will (1) Outline the dimensions of water security and its links to national security (2) Analyze water footprints and management risks for key basins in the US and around the world, (3) map the link between global water security and national concerns, drawing lessons from the drought of 2012 and elsewhere

  3. Managing Food Quality Risk in Global Supply Chain: A Risk Management Framework

    Arevalo Chavez, Pablo Jose; Seow, Christopher

    2012-01-01

    Today, the food sector is one of the sectors most vulnerable to intentional contamination by debilitating agents [1]. Some cases of contaminated food have indicated that product quality risk is one of the vulnerabilities in the global supply chain. A series of company scandals, affecting reputation and causing the recall of products and increasing costs have hit the food industry. The obvious problem is that even a minor incident in one part of the chain can have disastrous effects on other p...

  4. Research Synthesis Methods in an Age of Globalized Risks: Lessons from the Global Burden of Foodborne Disease Expert Elicitation

    Hald, Tine; Angulo, Fred; Bin Hamzah, Wan Mansor

    2016-01-01

    We live in an age that increasingly calls for national or regional management of global risks. This article discusses the contributions that expert elicitation can bring to efforts to manage global risks and identifies challenges faced in conducting expert elicitation at this scale. In doing so...... it draws on lessons learned from conducting an expert elicitation as part of the World Health Organizations (WHO) initiative to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease; a study commissioned by the Foodborne Disease Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG). Expert elicitation is designed to fill gaps...

  5. Cardiovascular Diseases on the Global Agenda: The United Nations High Level Meeting, Sustainable Development Goals, and the Way Forward.

    Ralston, Johanna; Reddy, K Srinath; Fuster, Valentin; Narula, Jagat

    2016-12-01

    In 2011, the United Nations (UN) organized the first ever meeting for heads of state to discuss the problem of noncommunicable diseases (NCD), including cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes mellitus. Recognizing that these had emerged as leading causes of morbidity and mortality in the world, including in many low- and middle-income countries, advocates from government and civil society had called for increased attention and a UN response. Earlier, NCD including CVD were absent from the global health agenda in part because of their omission from the Millennium Development Goals. The UN meeting and the global advocacy response offered a game-changing opportunity to redress this omission. The World Heart Federation (WHF) played an instrumental role in the UN meeting and follow up, including inclusion of CVD in the Sustainable Development Goals. The next phase of the global CVD movement is expected through national action, including CVD roadmaps and partnering with the World Health Organization. The WHF is heavily committed to these goals and the other nongovernmental organizations invested in the mission must help take this historical mandate forward. Instrumental to this will be the engagement of people affected by or at risk of developing CVD, to draw more attention and resources to NCD and to ensure that successes to date in global policy translate into action at the national level. Copyright © 2016 World Heart Federation (Geneva). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Defining the relationship between COPD and CVD: what are the implications for clinical practice?

    Morgan, Ann D; Zakeri, Rosita; Quint, Jennifer K

    2018-01-01

    Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are arguably the most important comorbidities in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). CVDs are common in people with COPD, and their presence is associated with increased risk for hospitalization, longer length of stay and all-cause and CVD-related mortality. The economic burden associated with CVD in this population is considerable and the cumulative cost of treating comorbidities may even exceed that of treating COPD itself. Our understanding of the biological mechanisms that link COPD and various forms of CVD has improved significantly over the past decade. But despite broad acceptance of the prognostic significance of CVDs in COPD, there remains widespread under-recognition and undertreatment of comorbid CVD in this population. The reasons for this are unclear; however institutional barriers and a lack of evidence-based guidelines for the management of CVD in people with COPD may be contributory factors. In this review, we summarize current knowledge relating to the prevalence and incidence of CVD in people with COPD and the mechanisms that underlie their coexistence. We discuss the implications for clinical practice and highlight opportunities for improved prevention and treatment of CVD in people with COPD. While we advocate more active assessment for signs of cardiovascular conditions across all age groups and all stages of COPD severity, we suggest targeting those aged under 65 years. Evidence indicates that the increased risks for CVD are particularly pronounced in COPD patients in mid-to-late-middle-age and thus it is in this age group that the benefits of early intervention may prove to be the most effective. PMID:29355081

  7. MgO by injection CVD

    Abrutis, A.; Kubilius, V.; Teiserkis, A.; Bigelyte, V.; Vengalis, B.; Jukna, A.; Butkute, R.

    1997-01-01

    Epitaxial YBa 2 Cu 3 O 7 layers with 45 in-plane orientation have been grown by injection CVD on MgO substrates polished off-axis to within 1.4-1.9 of the [100] direction. This new single-source CVD process is based on computer-controlled injection of precise microdoses of a metal-organic precursor solution into a CVD reactor. A wide range of solution compositions was tested to investigate compositional effects on phase purity, surface morphology, texturing and superconducting properties of the prepared films. The highest quality films with pure 45 texture had a smooth surface, zero resistance T c (R=0) of 88-89 K, and critical current density J c (77 K) above 10 6 A/cm 2 . (orig.) and critical current density J c (77 K) above 10 6 A/cm 2 . (orig.)

  8. CVD mechanism of pyrolytic boron nitride

    Tanji, H.; Monden, K.; Ide, M.

    1987-01-01

    Pyrolytic boron nitride (P-BN) has become a essential material for III-V compound semiconductor manufacturing process. As the demand from electronics industry for larger single crystals increases, the demand for larger and more economical P-BN components is growing rapidly. P-BN is manufactured by low pressure CVD using boron-trihalides and ammonia as the reactants. In spite that P-BN has been in the market for quite a long time, limited number of fundamental studies regarding the kinetics and the formation mechanism of P-BN have been reported. As it has been demonstrated in CVD of Si, knowledge and both theoretical and empirical modeling of CVD process can be applied to improve the deposition technology and to give more uniform deposition with higher efficiency, and it should also apply to the deposition of P-BN

  9. Elder Abuse: Global Situation, Risk Factors, and Prevention Strategies.

    Pillemer, Karl; Burnes, David; Riffin, Catherine; Lachs, Mark S

    2016-04-01

    Elder mistreatment is now recognized internationally as a pervasive and growing problem, urgently requiring the attention of health care systems, social welfare agencies, policymakers, and the general public. In this article, we provide an overview of global issues in the field of elder abuse, with a focus on prevention. This article provides a scoping review of key issues in the field from an international perspective. By drawing primarily on population-based studies, this scoping review provided a more valid and reliable synthesis of current knowledge about prevalence and risk factors than has been available. Despite the lack of scientifically rigorous intervention research on elder abuse, the review also identified 5 promising strategies for prevention. The findings highlight a growing consensus across studies regarding the extent and causes of elder mistreatment, as well as the urgent need for efforts to make elder mistreatment prevention programs more effective and evidence based. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Recent results on CVD diamond radiation sensors

    Weilhammer, P.; Adam, W.; Bauer, C.; Berdermann, E.; Bogani, F.; Borchi, E.; Bruzzi, M.; Colledani, C.; Conway, J.; Dabrowski, W.; Delpierre, P.; Deneuville, A.; Dulinski, W.; v. d. Eijk, R.; van Eijk, B.; Fallou, A.; Fish, D.; Fried, M.; Gan, K. K.; Gheeraert, E.; Grigoriev, E.; Hallewell, G.; Hall-Wilton, R.; Han, S.; Hartjes, F.; Hrubec, J.; Husson, D.; Kagan, H.; Kania, D.; Kaplon, J.; Kass, R.; Knopfle, K. T.; Krammer, M.; Manfredi, P. F.; Meier, D.; LeNormand; Pan, L. S.; Pernegger, H.; Pernicka, M.; Plano, R.; Re, V.; Riester, J. L.; Roe, S.; Roff; Rudge, A.; Schieber, M.; Schnetzer, S.; Sciortino, S.; Speziali, V.; Stelzer, H.; Stone, R.; Tapper, R. J.; Tesarek, R.; Thomson, G. B.; Trawick, M.; Trischuk, W.; Turchetta, R.; RD 42 Collaboration

    1998-02-01

    CVD diamond radiation sensors are being developed for possible use in trackers in the LHC experiments. The diamond promises to be radiation hard well beyond particle fluences that can be tolerated by Si sensors. Recent results from the RD 42 collaboration on charge collection distance and on radiation hardness of CVD diamond samples will be reported. Measurements with diamond tracking devices, both strip detectors and pixel detectors, will be discussed. Results from beam tests using a diamond strip detector which was read out with fast, 25 ns shaping time, radiation-hard pipeline electronics will be presented.

  11. Relationship between healthy diet and risk of cardiovascular disease among patients on drug therapies for secondary prevention: a prospective cohort study of 31 546 high-risk individuals from 40 countries.

    Dehghan, Mahshid; Mente, Andrew; Teo, Koon K; Gao, Peggy; Sleight, Peter; Dagenais, Gilles; Avezum, Alvaro; Probstfield, Jeffrey L; Dans, Tony; Yusuf, Salim

    2012-12-04

    Diet quality is strongly related to cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence, but little is known about its impact on CVD events in older people at high risk of CVD and receiving effective drugs for secondary prevention. This study assessed the association between diet quality and CVD events in a large population of subjects from 40 countries with CVD or diabetes mellitus with end-organ damage receiving proven medications. Overall, 31 546 women and men 66.5±6.2 years of age enrolled in 2 randomized trials, the Ongoing Telmisartan Alone and in Combination With Ramipril Global End Point Trial (ONTARGET) and the Telmisartan Randomized Assessment Study in ACEI Intolerant Subjects With Cardiovascular Disease (TRANSCEND), were studied. We used 2 dietary indexes: the modified Alternative Healthy Eating Index and the Diet Risk Score. The association between diet quality and the primary composite outcome of CV death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or congestive heart failure was assessed with Cox proportional hazard regression with adjustment for age, sex, trial enrollment allocation, region, and other known confounders. During the 56-month follow-up, there were 5190 events. Patients in the healthier quintiles of modified Alternative Healthy Eating Index scores had a significantly lower risk of CVD (hazard ratio, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.87, top versus lowest quintile of modified Alternative Healthy Eating Index). The reductions in risk for CV death, myocardial infarction, and stroke were 35%, 14%, and 19%, respectively. The protective association was consistent regardless of whether patients were receiving proven drugs. A higher-quality diet was associated with a lower risk of recurrent CVD events among people ≥55 years of age with CVD or diabetes mellitus. Highlighting the importance of healthy eating by health professionals would substantially reduce CVD recurrence and save lives globally.

  12. Flood damage curves for consistent global risk assessments

    de Moel, Hans; Huizinga, Jan; Szewczyk, Wojtek

    2016-04-01

    Assessing potential damage of flood events is an important component in flood risk management. Determining direct flood damage is commonly done using depth-damage curves, which denote the flood damage that would occur at specific water depths per asset or land-use class. Many countries around the world have developed flood damage models using such curves which are based on analysis of past flood events and/or on expert judgement. However, such damage curves are not available for all regions, which hampers damage assessments in those regions. Moreover, due to different methodologies employed for various damage models in different countries, damage assessments cannot be directly compared with each other, obstructing also supra-national flood damage assessments. To address these problems, a globally consistent dataset of depth-damage curves has been developed. This dataset contains damage curves depicting percent of damage as a function of water depth as well as maximum damage values for a variety of assets and land use classes (i.e. residential, commercial, agriculture). Based on an extensive literature survey concave damage curves have been developed for each continent, while differentiation in flood damage between countries is established by determining maximum damage values at the country scale. These maximum damage values are based on construction cost surveys from multinational construction companies, which provide a coherent set of detailed building cost data across dozens of countries. A consistent set of maximum flood damage values for all countries was computed using statistical regressions with socio-economic World Development Indicators from the World Bank. Further, based on insights from the literature survey, guidance is also given on how the damage curves and maximum damage values can be adjusted for specific local circumstances, such as urban vs. rural locations, use of specific building material, etc. This dataset can be used for consistent supra

  13. Low temperature CVD deposition of silicon carbide

    Dariel, M.; Yeheskel, J.; Agam, S.; Edelstein, D.; Lebovits, O.; Ron, Y.

    1991-04-01

    The coating of graphite on silicon carbide from the gaseous phase in a hot-well, open flow reactor at 1150degC is described. This study constitutes the first part of an investigation of the process for the coating of nuclear fuel by chemical vapor deposition (CVD)

  14. CVD diamond pixel detectors for LHC experiments

    Wedenig, R; Bauer, C; Berdermann, E; Bergonzo, P; Bogani, F; Borchi, E; Brambilla, A; Bruzzi, Mara; Colledani, C; Conway, J; Dabrowski, W; Delpierre, P A; Deneuville, A; Dulinski, W; van Eijk, B; Fallou, A; Fizzotti, F; Foulon, F; Friedl, M; Gan, K K; Gheeraert, E; Grigoriev, E; Hallewell, G D; Hall-Wilton, R; Han, S; Hartjes, F G; Hrubec, Josef; Husson, D; Kagan, H; Kania, D R; Kaplon, J; Karl, C; Kass, R; Knöpfle, K T; Krammer, Manfred; Lo Giudice, A; Lü, R; Manfredi, P F; Manfredotti, C; Marshall, R D; Meier, D; Mishina, M; Oh, A; Pan, L S; Palmieri, V G; Pernicka, Manfred; Peitz, A; Pirollo, S; Polesello, P; Pretzl, Klaus P; Procario, M; Re, V; Riester, J L; Roe, S; Roff, D G; Rudge, A; Runólfsson, O; Russ, J; Schnetzer, S R; Sciortino, S; Speziali, V; Stelzer, H; Stone, R; Suter, B; Tapper, R J; Tesarek, R J; Trawick, M L; Trischuk, W; Vittone, E; Wagner, A; Walsh, A M; Weilhammer, Peter; White, C; Zeuner, W; Ziock, H J; Zöller, M

    1999-01-01

    This paper reviews the development of CVD diamond pixel detectors. The preparation of the diamond pixel sensors for bump-bonding to the pixel readout electronics for the LHC and the results from beam tests carried out at CERN are described. (9 refs).

  15. CVD diamond pixel detectors for LHC experiments

    Wedenig, R.; Adam, W.; Bauer, C.; Berdermann, E.; Bergonzo, P.; Bogani, F.; Borchi, E.; Brambilla, A.; Bruzzi, M.; Colledani, C.; Conway, J.; Dabrowski, W.; Delpierre, P.; Deneuville, A.; Dulinski, W.; Eijk, B. van; Fallou, A.; Fizzotti, F.; Foulon, F.; Friedl, M.; Gan, K.K.; Gheeraert, E.; Grigoriev, E.; Hallewell, G.; Hall-Wilton, R.; Han, S.; Hartjes, F.; Hrubec, J.; Husson, D.; Kagan, H.; Kania, D.; Kaplon, J.; Karl, C.; Kass, R.; Knoepfle, K.T.; Krammer, M.; Logiudice, A.; Lu, R.; Manfredi, P.F.; Manfredotti, C.; Marshall, R.D.; Meier, D.; Mishina, M.; Oh, A.; Pan, L.S.; Palmieri, V.G.; Pernicka, M.; Peitz, A.; Pirollo, S.; Polesello, P.; Pretzl, K.; Procario, M.; Re, V.; Riester, J.L.; Roe, S.; Roff, D.; Rudge, A.; Runolfsson, O.; Russ, J.; Schnetzer, S.; Sciortino, S.; Speziali, V.; Stelzer, H.; Stone, R.; Suter, B.; Tapper, R.J.; Tesarek, R.; Trawick, M.; Trischuk, W.; Vittone, E.; Wagner, A.; Walsh, A.M.; Weilhammer, P.; White, C.; Zeuner, W.; Ziock, H.; Zoeller, M.; Blanquart, L.; Breugnion, P.; Charles, E.; Ciocio, A.; Clemens, J.C.; Dao, K.; Einsweiler, K.; Fasching, D.; Fischer, P.; Joshi, A.; Keil, M.; Klasen, V.; Kleinfelder, S.; Laugier, D.; Meuser, S.; Milgrome, O.; Mouthuy, T.; Richardson, J.; Sinervo, P.; Treis, J.; Wermes, N

    1999-08-01

    This paper reviews the development of CVD diamond pixel detectors. The preparation of the diamond pixel sensors for bump-bonding to the pixel readout electronics for the LHC and the results from beam tests carried out at CERN are described.

  16. CVD diamond pixel detectors for LHC experiments

    Wedenig, R.; Adam, W.; Bauer, C.; Berdermann, E.; Bergonzo, P.; Bogani, F.; Borchi, E.; Brambilla, A.; Bruzzi, M.; Colledani, C.; Conway, J.; Dabrowski, W.; Delpierre, P.; Deneuville, A.; Dulinski, W.; Eijk, B. van; Fallou, A.; Fizzotti, F.; Foulon, F.; Friedl, M.; Gan, K.K.; Gheeraert, E.; Grigoriev, E.; Hallewell, G.; Hall-Wilton, R.; Han, S.; Hartjes, F.; Hrubec, J.; Husson, D.; Kagan, H.; Kania, D.; Kaplon, J.; Karl, C.; Kass, R.; Knoepfle, K.T.; Krammer, M.; Logiudice, A.; Lu, R.; Manfredi, P.F.; Manfredotti, C.; Marshall, R.D.; Meier, D.; Mishina, M.; Oh, A.; Pan, L.S.; Palmieri, V.G.; Pernicka, M.; Peitz, A.; Pirollo, S.; Polesello, P.; Pretzl, K.; Procario, M.; Re, V.; Riester, J.L.; Roe, S.; Roff, D.; Rudge, A.; Runolfsson, O.; Russ, J.; Schnetzer, S.; Sciortino, S.; Speziali, V.; Stelzer, H.; Stone, R.; Suter, B.; Tapper, R.J.; Tesarek, R.; Trawick, M.; Trischuk, W.; Vittone, E.; Wagner, A.; Walsh, A.M.; Weilhammer, P.; White, C.; Zeuner, W.; Ziock, H.; Zoeller, M.; Blanquart, L.; Breugnion, P.; Charles, E.; Ciocio, A.; Clemens, J.C.; Dao, K.; Einsweiler, K.; Fasching, D.; Fischer, P.; Joshi, A.; Keil, M.; Klasen, V.; Kleinfelder, S.; Laugier, D.; Meuser, S.; Milgrome, O.; Mouthuy, T.; Richardson, J.; Sinervo, P.; Treis, J.; Wermes, N.

    1999-01-01

    This paper reviews the development of CVD diamond pixel detectors. The preparation of the diamond pixel sensors for bump-bonding to the pixel readout electronics for the LHC and the results from beam tests carried out at CERN are described

  17. Turbostratic stacked CVD graphene for high-performance devices

    Uemura, Kohei; Ikuta, Takashi; Maehashi, Kenzo

    2018-03-01

    We have fabricated turbostratic stacked graphene with high-transport properties by the repeated transfer of CVD monolayer graphene. The turbostratic stacked CVD graphene exhibited higher carrier mobility and conductivity than CVD monolayer graphene. The electron mobility for the three-layer turbostratic stacked CVD graphene surpassed 10,000 cm2 V-1 s-1 at room temperature, which is five times greater than that for CVD monolayer graphene. The results indicate that the high performance is derived from maintenance of the linear band dispersion, suppression of the carrier scattering, and parallel conduction. Therefore, turbostratic stacked CVD graphene is a superior material for high-performance devices.

  18. Which part of a short, global risk assessment, the Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community, predicts adverse healthcare outcomes?

    O’Caoimh, Rónán

    2015-01-01

    The Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community (RISC) is a short, global risk assessment to identify community-dwelling older adults’ one-year risk of institutionalisation, hospitalisation, and death. We investigated the contribution that the three components of the RISC (\

  19. The process of developing policy based on global environmental risk assessment

    Fisk, D.J.

    1995-01-01

    A brief presentation is given on developing policy based on a global environmental risk assessment. The author looks at the global warming issue as if it were a formal problem in risk assessment. He uses that framework to make one or two suggestions as to how the interaction of policy and research might evolve as the climate convention progresses

  20. Cardiovascular risk factors in men

    Gyllenborg, J; Rasmussen, S L; Borch-Johnsen, Knut

    2001-01-01

    Males have higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) than premenopausal females. Gonadal steroids are probably involved in the gender difference in CVD, but previous results have been conflicting. We investigated the associations between CVD risk factors and sex hormones in a cross-sectional de......Males have higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) than premenopausal females. Gonadal steroids are probably involved in the gender difference in CVD, but previous results have been conflicting. We investigated the associations between CVD risk factors and sex hormones in a cross...

  1. Movers and stayers: The geography of residential mobility and CVD hospitalisations in Auckland, New Zealand.

    Exeter, Daniel J; Sabel, Clive E; Hanham, Grant; Lee, Arier C; Wells, Susan

    2015-05-01

    The association between area-level disadvantage and health and social outcomes is unequivocal. However, less is known about the health impact of residential mobility, particularly at intra-urban scales. We used an encrypted National Health Index (eNHI) number to link individual-level data recorded in routine national health databases to construct a cohort of 641,532 participants aged 30+ years to investigate the association between moving and CVD hospitalisations in Auckland, New Zealand. Residential mobility was measured for participants according to changes in the census Meshblock of usual residence, obtained from the Primary Health Organisation (PHO) database for every calendar quarter between 1/1/2006 and 31/12/2012. The NZDep2006 area deprivation score at the start and end of a participant's inclusion in the study was used to measure deprivation mobility. We investigated the relative risk of movers being hospitalised for CVD relative to stayers using multi-variable binomial regression models, controlling for age, gender, deprivation and ethnicity. Considered together, movers were 1.22 (1.19-1.26) times more likely than stayers to be hospitalised for CVD. Using the 5×5 deprivation origin-destination matrix to model a patient's risk of CVD based on upward, downward or sideways deprivation mobility, movers within the least deprived (NZDep2006 Quintile 1) areas were 10% less likely than stayers to be hospitalised for CVD, while movers within the most deprived (NZDep2006 Q5) areas were 45% more likely than stayers to have had their first CVD hospitalisation in 2006-2012 (RR: 1.45 [1.35-1.55]). Participants who moved upward also had higher relative risks of having a CVD event, although their risk was less than those observed for participants experiencing downward deprivation mobility. This research suggests that residential mobility is an important determinant of CVD in Auckland. Further investigation is required to determine the impact moving has on the risk of

  2. Flavonoids and Reduction of Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD).

    Russo, Patrizia; Prinzi, Giulia; Lamonaca, Palma; Cardaci, Vittorio; Fini, Massimo

    2018-05-13

    Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and cardiovascular diseases (CV) often coexist. COPD and CVD are complex diseases characterized by a strict interaction between environment and genetic. The mechanisms linking these two diseases are complex, multifactorial and not entirely understood, influencing the therapeutic approach. COPD is characterized by several comorbidities, it is hypothesizable that treatment of cardiovascular co-morbidities may reduce morbidity and mortality. Flavonoids are an important class of plant low molecular weight secondary metabolites (SMs). Convincing data from laboratory, epidemiological, and human clinical studies point to an important effects on CVD risk prevention. This review aims to provide up-to-date information on the ability of Flavonoids to reduce the CVD risk. Current studies support the potential of Flavonoids to prevent the risk of CVD. Well-designed clinical studies are suggested to evaluate advantages and limits of Flavonoids for managing CVD comorbidity in COPD. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

  3. Global Risk Diversification: An Empirical Investigation From The U. S. Perspective

    H. Christine Hsu

    2011-01-01

    The case for global risk diversification has been built on correlations between the U.S. and international stock markets. Now that we witness how tightly the world stock markets are correlated, especially after the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, does it still make sense to diversify globally? Can the investments in global equity portfolios be protected in todays volatile markets? These questions have preoccupied a growing number of portfolio managers in recent years, as well as many of...

  4. A global overview of risk management of the DOE complex

    Alesso, H.P.; Majumdar, K.C.

    1993-01-01

    No endeavor is risk-fire and as we realize the inherent risks in society, our only viable solution is to manage the risk. Application of an integrated risk management program of a large technological system like the DOE complex is a difficult, task; but it is the only rational means to optimize the risk-benefit equation. An effective risk management culture-within the DOE complex will in the long run, ensure a consistent response to mitigate identified risks. An effective risk management program provides responsible administrative planning and logical application of the best technical analyses. It requires the involvement of all personnel. Our objective in this paper is to point out broad perspectives that raise concerns about future DOE ask management issues and to suggest some possible remedies

  5. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  6. CVD calibration light systems specifications. Rev. 0

    Mcllwain, A. K.

    1992-04-01

    Two prototype Cerenkov Viewing Device Calibration Light systems for the Mark IV CVD have been fabricated. They consist of a maintenance unit that will be used by the IAEA maintenance staff and a field unit that will be used by IAEA inspectors. More detailed information on the design of the calibration units can be obtained from the document SSP-39 and additional information on the Mark IV CVD can be obtained from the operating manual published as Canadian Safeguards Support Program document CSSP 6. The specifications refer to the prototype units which will be demonstrated to the IAEA in 1992 May. Based upon the feedback from the IAEA, the instruments will be changed in the final production models to provide devices that more closely satisfy the needs of the end users

  7. Recent results with CVD diamond trackers

    Adam, W.; Bauer, C.; Berdermann, E.; Bergonzo, P.; Bogani, F.; Borchi, E.; Brambilla, A.; Bruzzi, M.; Colledani, C.; Conway, J.; Dabrowski, W.; Delpierre, P.; Deneuville, A.; Dulinski, W.; Eijk, B. van; Fallou, A.; Fizzotti, F.; Foulon, F.; Friedl, M.; Gan, K.K.; Gheeraert, E.; Grigoriev, E.; Hallewell, G.; Hall-Wilton, R.; Han, S.; Hartjes, F.; Hrubec, J.; Husson, D.; Kagan, H.; Kania, D.; Kaplon, J.; Karl, C.; Kass, R.; Knoepfle, K.T.; Krammer, M.; Logiudice, A.; Lu, R.; Manfredi, P.F.; Manfredotti, C.; Marshall, R.D.; Meier, D.; Mishina, M.; Oh, A.; Pan, L.S.; Palmieri, V.G.; Pernicka, M.; Peitz, A.; Pirollo, S.; Polesello, P.; Pretzl, K.; Procario, M.; Re, V.; Riester, J.L.; Roe, S.; Roff, D.; Rudge, A.; Runolfsson, O.; Russ, J.; Schnetzer, S.; Sciortino, S.; Speziali, V.; Stelzer, H.; Stone, R.; Suter, B.; Tapper, R.J.; Tesarek, R.; Trawick, M.; Trischuk, W.; Vittone, E.; Walsh, A.M.; Wedenig, R.; Weilhammer, P.; White, C.; Ziock, H.; Zoeller, M

    1999-08-01

    We present recent results on the use of Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) diamond microstrip detectors for charged particle tracking. A series of detectors was fabricated using 1 x 1 cm{sup 2} diamonds. Good signal-to-noise ratios were observed using both slow and fast readout electronics. For slow readout electronics, 2 {mu}s shaping time, the most probable signal-to-noise ratio was 50 to 1. For fast readout electronics, 25 ns peaking time, the most probable signal-to-noise ratio was 7 to 1. Using the first 2 x 4 cm{sup 2} diamond from a production CVD reactor with slow readout electronics, the most probable signal-to-noise ratio was 23 to 1. The spatial resolution achieved for the detectors was consistent with the digital resolution expected from the detector pitch.

  8. Recent results with CVD diamond trackers

    Adam, W; Berdermann, E; Bergonzo, P; Bogani, F; Borchi, E; Brambilla, A; Bruzzi, Mara; Colledani, C; Conway, J; Dabrowski, W; Delpierre, P A; Deneuville, A; Dulinski, W; van Eijk, B; Fallou, A; Fizzotti, F; Foulon, F; Friedl, M; Gan, K K; Gheeraert, E; Grigoriev, E; Hallewell, G D; Hall-Wilton, R; Han, S; Hartjes, F G; Hrubec, Josef; Husson, D; Kagan, H; Kania, D R; Kaplon, J; Karl, C; Kass, R; Knöpfle, K T; Krammer, Manfred; Lo Giudice, A; Lü, R; Manfredi, P F; Manfredotti, C; Marshall, R D; Meier, D; Mishina, M; Oh, A; Pan, L S; Palmieri, V G; Pernicka, Manfred; Peitz, A; Pirollo, S; Polesello, P; Pretzl, Klaus P; Procario, M; Re, V; Riester, J L; Roe, S; Roff, D G; Rudge, A; Runólfsson, O; Russ, J; Schnetzer, S R; Sciortino, S; Speziali, V; Stelzer, H; Stone, R; Suter, B; Tapper, R J; Tesarek, R J; Trawick, M L; Trischuk, W; Vittone, E; Walsh, A M; Wedenig, R; Weilhammer, Peter; White, C; Ziock, H J; Zöller, M

    1999-01-01

    We present recent results on the use of chemical vapor deposition (CVD) diamond microstrip detectors for charged particle tracking. A series of detectors was fabricated using 1*1 cm/sup 2/ diamonds. Good signal-to-noise ratios were observed using both slow and fast readout electronics. For slow readout electronics, 2 mu s shaping time, the most probable signal-to-noise ratio was 50 to 1. For fast readout electronics, 25 ns peaking time, the most probable signal-to-noise ratio was 7 to 1. Using the first 2*4 cm/sup 2/ diamond from a production CVD reactor with slow readout electronics, the most probable signal-to-noise ratio was 23 to 1. The spatial resolution achieved for the detectors was consistent with the digital resolution expected from the detector pitch. (6 refs).

  9. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  10. The Functions of Sourcing Intermediaries in Global Supply Risk Management

    Vedel, Mette; Ellegaard, Chris

    The aim of this work-in-progress paper is to uncover the supply risk management functions performed by sourcing intermediaries. The purchasing and supply chain management literature, including the part of it concerned with supply risk, pays little attention to sourcing intermediaries....... But the fields of marketing and international business have investigated the intermediary including its high supply risk reducing potentials, suggesting that this supply chain entity may be highly relevant to supply risk management. In order to get a better understanding of the supply risk reducing properties...... of sourcing intermediaries, we perform a study of the Danish clothing industry. The study incorporate interviews across a range of functions and companies in this industry including retailers, producers, suppliers, and various types of intermediaries. We contribute by coupling the supply risk management...

  11. Ballistic Josephson junctions based on CVD graphene

    Li, Tianyi; Gallop, John; Hao, Ling; Romans, Edward

    2018-04-01

    Josephson junctions with graphene as the weak link between superconductors have been intensely studied in recent years, with respect to both fundamental physics and potential applications. However, most of the previous work was based on mechanically exfoliated graphene, which is not compatible with wafer-scale production. To overcome this limitation, we have used graphene grown by chemical vapour deposition (CVD) as the weak link of Josephson junctions. We demonstrate that very short, wide CVD-graphene-based Josephson junctions with Nb electrodes can work without any undesirable hysteresis in their electrical characteristics from 1.5 K down to a base temperature of 320 mK, and their gate-tuneable critical current shows an ideal Fraunhofer-like interference pattern in a perpendicular magnetic field. Furthermore, for our shortest junctions (50 nm in length), we find that the normal state resistance oscillates with the gate voltage, consistent with the junctions being in the ballistic regime, a feature not previously observed in CVD-graphene-based Josephson junctions.

  12. Undoped CVD diamond films for electrochemical applications

    Mosinska, Lidia; Fabisiak, Kazimierz; Paprocki, Kazimierz; Kowalska, Magdalena; Popielarski, Pawel; Szybowicz, Miroslaw

    2013-01-01

    By using different deposition conditions, the CVD diamond films with different qualities and orientation were grown by the hot-filament CVD technique. The object of this article is to summarize and discuss relation between structural, physical and electrochemical properties of different diamond electrodes. The physical properties of the Hot Filament CVD microcrystalline diamond films are analyzed by scanning electron microscopy and Raman spectroscopy. In presented studies two different electrodes were used of the diamond grain sizes around 200 nm and 10 μm, as it was estimated from SEM picture. The diamond layers quality was checked on basis of FWHM (Full width at Half Maximum) of 1332 cm −1 diamond Raman peak. The ratio of sp 3 /sp 2 carbon bonds was determined by 1550 cm −1 G band and 1350 cm −1 D band in the Raman spectrum. The electrochemical properties were analyzed using (CV) cyclic voltammetry measurements in aqueous solutions. The sensitivity of undoped diamond electrodes depends strongly on diamond film quality and concentration of amorphous carbon phase in the diamond layer

  13. Global Variance Risk Premium and Forex Return Predictability

    Aloosh, Arash

    2014-01-01

    In a long-run risk model with stochastic volatility and frictionless markets, I express expected forex returns as a function of consumption growth variances and stock variance risk premiums (VRPs)—the difference between the risk-neutral and statistical expectations of market return variation. This provides a motivation for using the forward-looking information available in stock market volatility indices to predict forex returns. Empirically, I find that stock VRPs predict forex returns at a ...

  14. Recursive inter-generational utility in global climate risk modeling

    Minh, Ha-Duong [Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement (CIRED-CNRS), 75 - Paris (France); Treich, N. [Institut National de Recherches Agronomiques (INRA-LEERNA), 31 - Toulouse (France)

    2003-07-01

    This paper distinguishes relative risk aversion and resistance to inter-temporal substitution in climate risk modeling. Stochastic recursive preferences are introduced in a stylized numeric climate-economy model using preliminary IPCC 1998 scenarios. It shows that higher risk aversion increases the optimal carbon tax. Higher resistance to inter-temporal substitution alone has the same effect as increasing the discount rate, provided that the risk is not too large. We discuss implications of these findings for the debate upon discounting and sustainability under uncertainty. (author)

  15. OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS OF GLOBALIZATION IN RURAL AREAS. CASE STUDY: BOTOSANI COUNTY

    Maria-Simona Cuciureanu

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The global economy plays an important role in the development of a region or a county/district as it promotes the exploitation of resources and space in a logical and rational manner. The trend of global economic uniformity allows opportunities and risks to Botoșani County since globalization involves economic development and rising living standards, but loss of cultural values, traditions and customs. The area of study currently confronts with socio-economic and demographic changes that may be addressed by globalization, but at the same time spatial development according to global standards will cause the loss of Botoșani County’s authenticity.

  16. Factors associated with blue-collar workers' risk perception of cardiovascular disease.

    Hwang, Won Ju; Hong, Oisaeng; Kim, Mi Ja

    2012-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the contribution of actual cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, as well as, individual, psychosocial, and work-related factors as predictors of CVD risk perception among Korean blue-collar workers. The participants were 238 Korean blue-collar workers who worked in small companies. Data were collected through a survey; anthropometric and blood pressure measures; and blood sampling for lipid levels. Blue-collar workers had high actual CVD risk and low CVD risk perception. The significant predictors of risk perception included perceived health status, alcohol consumption, knowledge of CVD risk, actual CVD risk, decision latitude, and shift work. The model explained 26% of the variance in CVD risk perception. The result suggests when occupational health nurses are giving routine health examination in small companies, they can enhance CVD risk perception in blue-collar workers by providing essential information about CVD risk factors and personal counseling on the individual worker's CVD risk status.

  17. Cardiovascular diseases in Ghana within the context of globalization

    Garcia, Daireen

    2016-01-01

    This paper discusses how globalization and its elements are influencing health dynamics and in particular Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in Ghana. It assesses the growing burden of CVDs and its relationship with globalization. It further describes the conceptual framework on which to view the impact of globalization on CVDs in Ghana. It also set out the dimensions of the relationship between CVD risk factors and globalization. The paper concludes with a discussion on strategies for tackling the growing burden of CVDs in Ghana. PMID:26885494

  18. Habitats at Risk. Global Warming and Species Loss in Globally Significant Terrestrial Ecosystems

    Malcolm, J.R.; Liu, Canran; Miller, L.B.; Allnutt, T.; Hansen, L.

    2002-02-01

    In this study, a suite of models of global climate and vegetation change is used to investigate three important global warming-induced threats to the terrestrial Global 200 ecoregions: (1) Invasions by new habitat types (and corresponding loss of original habitat types); (2) Local changes of habitat types; (3) High rates of required species migration. Seven climate models (general circulation models or GCMs) and two vegetation models (BIOME3 and MAPSS) were used to produce 14 impact scenarios under the climate associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, which is expected to occur in less than 100 years. Previous analyses indicated that most of the variation among the impact scenarios was attributable to the particular vegetation model used, hence the authors provide results separately for the two models. The models do not provide information on biodiversity per se, but instead simulate current and future potential distributions of major vegetation types (biomes) such as tundra and broadleaf tropical rain forest

  19. Rationale and design of INTERSTROKE: a global case-control study of risk factors for stroke

    O'Donnell, M; Serpault, Damien Xavier; Diener, C

    2010-01-01

    Stroke is a major global health problem. It is the third leading cause of death and the leading cause of adult disability. INTERHEART, a global case-control study of acute myocardial infarction in 52 countries (29,972 participants), identified nine modifiable risk factors that accounted for >90% ...

  20. Risk analysis reveals global hotspots for marine debris ingestion by sea turtles

    Schuyler, Qamar A.; Wilcox, Chris; Townsend, Kathy A.; Wedemeyer-Strombel, Kathryn R.; Balazs, George; van Sebille, Erik|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831921; Hardesty, Britta Denise

    2016-01-01

    Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with

  1. A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States

    Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; Karin L. Riley; Christopher M. Oswalt; Susan J. Crocker; Gary W. Yohe

    2013-01-01

    Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C), but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and...

  2. Coping with global environmental change, disasters and security: threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks

    Brauch, H.G.; Oswald Spring, Ú.; Mesjasz, C.; Grin, J.; Kameri-Mbote, P.; Chourou, B.; Dunay, P.; Birkmann, J.

    2011-01-01

    This policy-focused Global Environmental and Human Security Handbook for the Anthropo-cene (GEHSHA) addresses new security threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks posed by global environmental change and disasters. In 6 forewords, 5 preface essays 95 peer reviewed chapcountries analyse in 10

  3. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013

    Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.; Alexander, Lily; Anderson, H. Ross

    2015-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the fi rst of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantifi cation, particularly of modifi able risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for ...

  4. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013

    Forouzanfar, M.H.; Alexander, L.; Ross Anderson, H.; Geleijnse, J.M.

    2015-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for

  5. What can'(t) we do with global flood risk models?

    Ward, P.; Jongman, B.; Salamon, P.; Simpson, A.; Bates, P. D.; de Groeve, T.; Muis, S.; Coughlan, E.; Rudari, R.; Trigg, M. A.; Winsemius, H.

    2015-12-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward, P.J. et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742.

  6. Global Credit Risk: World, Country and Industry Factors

    Schwaab, B.; Koopman, S.J.; Lucas, A.

    2017-01-01

    We investigate the dynamic properties of systematic default risk conditions for firms in different countries, industries and rating groups. We use a high-dimensional nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space model to estimate common components in corporate defaults in a 41 country samples between 1980:Q1

  7. An assessment of radiotherapy dosimeters based on CVD grown diamond

    Ramkumar, S.; Buttar, C.M.; Conway, J.; Whitehead, A.J.; Sussman, R.S.; Hill, G.; Walker, S.

    2001-01-01

    Diamond is potentially a very suitable material for use as a dosimeter for radiotherapy. Its radiation hardness, the near tissue equivalence and chemical inertness are some of the characteristics of diamond, which make it well suited for its application as a dosimeter. Recent advances in the synthesis of diamond by chemical vapour deposition (CVD) technology have resulted in the improvement in the quality of material and increased its suitability for radiotherapy applications. We report in this paper, the response of prototype dosimeters based on two different types (CVD1 and CVD2) of CVD diamond to X-rays. The diamond devices were assessed for sensitivity, dependence of response on dose and dose rate, and compared with a Scanditronix silicon photon diode and a PTW natural diamond dosimeter. The diamond devices of CVD1 type showed an initial increase in response with dose, which saturates after ∼6 Gy. The diamond devices of CVD2 type had a response at low fields ( 1162.8 V/cm), the CVD2-type devices showed polarisation and dose-rate dependence. The sensitivity of the CVD diamond devices varied between 82 and 1300 nC/Gy depending upon the sample type and the applied voltage. The sensitivity of CVD diamond devices was significantly higher than that of natural diamond and silicon dosimeters. The results suggest that CVD diamond devices can be fabricated for successful use in radiotherapy applications

  8. Global Production Planning Process considering the Supply Risk of Overseas Manufacturing Sites

    Hosang Jung

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Although global manufacturers can produce most of their final products in local plants, they need to source components or parts from desirable overseas manufacturing partners at low cost in order to fulfill customer orders. In this global manufacturing environment, capacity information for planning is usually imprecise owing to the various risks of overseas plants (e.g., foreign governments’ policies and labor stability. It is therefore not easy for decision-makers to generate a global production plan showing the production amounts at local plants and overseas manufacturing facilities operated by manufacturing partners. In this paper, we present a new global production planning process considering the supply risk of overseas manufacturing sites. First, local experts estimate the supply capacity of an overseas plant using their judgment to determine when the risk could occur and how large the risk impact would be. Next, we run a global production planning model with the estimated supply capacities. The proposed process systematically adopts the qualitative judgments of local experts in the global production planning process and thus can provide companies with a realistic global production plan. We demonstrate the applicability of the proposed process with a real world case.

  9. Global obesity: trends, risk factors and policy implications.

    Malik, Vasanti S; Willett, Walter C; Hu, Frank B

    2013-01-01

    The worldwide increase in obesity and related chronic diseases has largely been driven by global trade liberalization, economic growth and rapid urbanization. These factors continue to fuel dramatic changes in living environments, diets and lifestyles in ways that promote positive energy balance. Nutritional transitions in low-income and middle-income countries are typically characterized by increases in the consumption of animal fat and protein, refined grains, and added sugar. This change is coupled with reductions in physical activity owing to more mechanized and technologically driven lifestyles. Given the high costs of obesity and comorbidities in terms of health-care expenditure and quality of life, prevention strategies are paramount, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries that must manage coexisting infectious diseases and undernutrition in addition to the obesity epidemic. As countries become increasingly urbanized, undernutrition and obesity can exist side by side within the same country, community or household, which is a particular challenge for health systems with limited resources. Owing to the scope and complexity of the obesity epidemic, prevention strategies and policies across multiple levels are needed in order to have a measurable effect. Changes should include high-level global policies from the international community and coordinated efforts by governments, organizations, communities and individuals to positively influence behavioural change.

  10. Global oil risks in the early 21st century

    Fantazzini, Dean; Höök, Mikael; Angelantoni, André

    2011-01-01

    The Deepwater Horizon incident demonstrated that most of the oil left is deep offshore or in other difficult to reach locations. Moreover, obtaining the oil remaining in currently producing reservoirs requires additional equipment and technology that comes at a higher price in both capital and energy. In this regard, the physical limitations on producing the ever-increasing quantities of oil are highlighted as well as the possibility of the peak of production occurring this decade. The economics of oil supply and demand are also briefly discussed showing why the available supply is basically fixed in the short to medium term. Also, an alarm bell for economic recessions is shown to be when energy takes a disproportionate amount of total consumer expenditures. In this context, risk mitigation practices in government and business are called for. As for the former, early education of the citizenry of the risk of economic contraction is a prudent policy to minimize potential future social discord. As for the latter, all business operations should be examined with the aim of building in resilience and preparing for a scenario in which capital and energy are much more expensive than in the business-as-usual one. - Highlights: ► Review of the physical background to peak oil and current oil situation. ► Economics of oil supply and demand are examined to identify imminent challenges. ► Investigation of the financial and energy transition risks associated with peak oil. ► Oil scarcity and price volatility induce certain governmental and business risks. ► General risk mitigation is vital and peak oil preparations should be undertaken.

  11. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

    Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Alexander, Lily; Anderson, H Ross; Bachman, Victoria F; Biryukov, Stan; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Casey, Daniel; Coates, Matthew M; Cohen, Aaron; Delwiche, Kristen; Estep, Kara; Frostad, Joseph J; Kc, Astha; Kyu, Hmwe H; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Ng, Marie; Slepak, Erica Leigh; Thomas, Bernadette A; Wagner, Joseph; Aasvang, Gunn Marit; Abbafati, Cristiana; Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abera, Semaw F; Aboyans, Victor; Abraham, Biju; Abraham, Jerry Puthenpurakal; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E; Aburto, Tania C; Achoki, Tom; Adelekan, Ademola; Adofo, Koranteng; Adou, Arsène K; Adsuar, José C; Afshin, Ashkan; Agardh, Emilie E; Al Khabouri, Mazin J; Al Lami, Faris H; Alam, Sayed Saidul; Alasfoor, Deena; Albittar, Mohammed I; Alegretti, Miguel A; Aleman, Alicia V; Alemu, Zewdie A; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Alhabib, Samia; Ali, Raghib; Ali, Mohammed K; Alla, François; Allebeck, Peter; Allen, Peter J; Alsharif, Ubai; Alvarez, Elena; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amankwaa, Adansi A; Amare, Azmeraw T; Ameh, Emmanuel A; Ameli, Omid; Amini, Heresh; Ammar, Walid; Anderson, Benjamin O; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Anwari, Palwasha; Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu; Arnlöv, Johan; Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic; Artaman, Al; Asghar, Rana J; Assadi, Reza; Atkins, Lydia S; Atkinson, Charles; Avila, Marco A; Awuah, Baffour; Badawi, Alaa; Bahit, Maria C; Bakfalouni, Talal; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Balalla, Shivanthi; Balu, Ravi Kumar; Banerjee, Amitava; Barber, Ryan M; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L; Barquera, Simon; Barregard, Lars; Barrero, Lope H; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Basto-Abreu, Ana C; Basu, Arindam; Basu, Sanjay; Basulaiman, Mohammed O; Ruvalcaba, Carolina Batis; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Bekele, Tolesa; Bell, Michelle L; Benjet, Corina; Bennett, Derrick A; Benzian, Habib; Bernabé, Eduardo; Beyene, Tariku J; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhalla, Ashish; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Bikbov, Boris; Abdulhak, Aref A Bin; Blore, Jed D; Blyth, Fiona M; Bohensky, Megan A; Başara, Berrak Bora; Borges, Guilherme; Bornstein, Natan M; Bose, Dipan; Boufous, Soufiane; Bourne, Rupert R; Brainin, Michael; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas J; Brenner, Hermann; Briggs, Adam D M; Broday, David M; Brooks, Peter M; Bruce, Nigel G; Brugha, Traolach S; Brunekreef, Bert|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/067548180; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Bui, Linh N; Bukhman, Gene; Bulloch, Andrew G; Burch, Michael; Burney, Peter G J; Campos-Nonato, Ismael R; Campuzano, Julio C; Cantoral, Alejandra J; Caravanos, Jack; Cárdenas, Rosario; Cardis, Elisabeth; Carpenter, David O; Caso, Valeria; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A; Castro, Ruben E; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Cavalleri, Fiorella; Çavlin, Alanur; Chadha, Vineet K; Chang, Jung-Chen; Charlson, Fiona J; Chen, Honglei; Chen, Wanqing; Chen, Zhengming; Chiang, Peggy P; Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christophi, Costas A; Chuang, Ting-Wu; Chugh, Sumeet S; Cirillo, Massimo; Claßen, Thomas Kd; Colistro, Valentina; Colomar, Mercedes; Colquhoun, Samantha M; Contreras, Alejandra G; Cooper, Cyrus; Cooperrider, Kimberly; Cooper, Leslie T; Coresh, Josef; Courville, Karen J; Criqui, Michael H; Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia; Damsere-Derry, James; Danawi, Hadi; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Dargan, Paul I; Davis, Adrian; Davitoiu, Dragos V; Dayama, Anand; de Castro, E Filipa; De la Cruz-Góngora, Vanessa; De Leo, Diego; de Lima, Graça; Degenhardt, Louisa; Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja; Dellavalle, Robert P; Deribe, Kebede; Derrett, Sarah; Jarlais, Don C Des; Dessalegn, Muluken; deVeber, Gabrielle A; Devries, Karen M; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Dherani, Mukesh K; Dicker, Daniel; Ding, Eric L; Dokova, Klara; Dorsey, E Ray; Driscoll, Tim R; Duan, Leilei; Durrani, Adnan M; Ebel, Beth E; Ellenbogen, Richard G; Elshrek, Yousef M; Endres, Matthias; Ermakov, Sergey P; Erskine, Holly E; Eshrati, Babak; Esteghamati, Alireza; Fahimi, Saman; Faraon, Emerito Jose A; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fay, Derek F J; Feigin, Valery L; Feigl, Andrea B; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Ferrari, Alize J; Ferri, Cleusa P; Flaxman, Abraham D; Fleming, Thomas D; Foigt, Nataliya; Foreman, Kyle J; Paleo, Urbano Fra; Franklin, Richard C; Gabbe, Belinda; Gaffikin, Lynne; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Gamkrelidze, Amiran; Gankpé, Fortuné G; Gansevoort, Ron T; García-Guerra, Francisco A; Gasana, Evariste; Geleijnse, Johanna M; Gessner, Bradford D; Gething, Pete; Gibney, Katherine B; Gillum, Richard F; Ginawi, Ibrahim A M; Giroud, Maurice; Giussani, Giorgia; Goenka, Shifalika; Goginashvili, Ketevan; Dantes, Hector Gomez; Gona, Philimon; de Cosio, Teresita Gonzalez; González-Castell, Dinorah; Gotay, Carolyn C; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N; Guerrant, Richard L; Gugnani, Harish C; Guillemin, Francis; Gunnell, David; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gutiérrez, Reyna A; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hagan, Holly; Hagstromer, Maria; Halasa, Yara A; Hamadeh, Randah R; Hammami, Mouhanad; Hankey, Graeme J; Hao, Yuantao; Harb, Hilda L; Haregu, Tilahun Nigatu; Haro, Josep Maria; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hay, Simon I; Hedayati, Mohammad T; Heredia-Pi, Ileana B; Hernandez, Lucia; Heuton, Kyle R; Heydarpour, Pouria; Hijar, Martha; Hoek, Hans W; Hoffman, Howard J; Hornberger, John C|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304838993; Hosgood, H Dean; Hoy, Damian G; Hsairi, Mohamed; Hu, Guoqing; Hu, Howard; Huang, Cheng; Huang, John J; Hubbell, Bryan J; Huiart, Laetitia; Husseini, Abdullatif; Iannarone, Marissa L; Iburg, Kim M; Idrisov, Bulat T; Ikeda, Nayu; Innos, Kaire; Inoue, Manami; Islami, Farhad; Ismayilova, Samaya; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Jansen, Henrica A; Jarvis, Deborah L; Jassal, Simerjot K; Jauregui, Alejandra; Jayaraman, Sudha; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jensen, Paul N; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Fan; Jiang, Guohong; Jiang, Ying; Jonas, Jost B; Juel, Knud; Kan, Haidong; Roseline, Sidibe S Kany; Karam, Nadim E; Karch, André; Karema, Corine K; Karthikeyan, Ganesan; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Kazi, Dhruv S; Kemp, Andrew H; Kengne, Andre P; Keren, Andre; Khader, Yousef S; Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan; Khan, Ejaz A; Khang, Young-Ho; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Khonelidze, Irma; Kieling, Christian; Kim, Daniel; Kim, Sungroul; Kim, Yunjin; Kimokoti, Ruth W; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kinge, Jonas M; Kissela, Brett M; Kivipelto, Miia; Knibbs, Luke D; Knudsen, Ann Kristin; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kose, M Rifat; Kosen, Soewarta; Kraemer, Alexander; Kravchenko, Michael; Krishnaswami, Sanjay; Kromhout, Hans|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/074385224; Ku, Tiffany; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate; Bicer, Burcu Kucuk; Kuipers, Ernst J; Kulkarni, Chanda; Kulkarni, Veena S; Kumar, G Anil; Kwan, Gene F; Lai, Taavi; Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lallukka, Tea; Lam, Hilton; Lan, Qing; Lansingh, Van C; Larson, Heidi J; Larsson, Anders; Laryea, Dennis O; Lavados, Pablo M; Lawrynowicz, Alicia E; Leasher, Janet L; Lee, Jong-Tae; Leigh, James; Leung, Ricky; Levi, Miriam; Li, Yichong; Li, Yongmei; Liang, Juan; Liang, Xiaofeng; Lim, Stephen S; Lindsay, M Patrice; Lipshultz, Steven E; Liu, Shiwei; Liu, Yang; Lloyd, Belinda K; Logroscino, Giancarlo; London, Stephanie J; Lopez, Nancy; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lozano, Rafael; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Ma, Jixiang; Ma, Stefan; Machado, Vasco M P; MacIntyre, Michael F; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Mahdi, Abbas A; Majdan, Marek; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mangalam, Srikanth; Mapoma, Christopher C; Marape, Marape; Marcenes, Wagner; Margolis, David J; Margono, Christopher; Marks, Guy B; Martin, Randall V; Marzan, Melvin B; Mashal, Mohammad T; Masiye, Felix; Mason-Jones, Amanda J; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Matzopoulos, Richard; Mayosi, Bongani M; Mazorodze, Tasara T; McKay, Abigail C; McKee, Martin; McLain, Abigail; Meaney, Peter A; Medina, Catalina; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola; Mekonnen, Wubegzier; Melaku, Yohannes A; Meltzer, Michele; Memish, Ziad A; Mendoza, Walter; Mensah, George A; Meretoja, Atte; Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary; Micha, Renata; Miller, Ted R; Mills, Edward J; Misganaw, Awoke; Mishra, Santosh; Ibrahim, Norlinah Mohamed; Mohammad, Karzan A; Mokdad, Ali H; Mola, Glen L; Monasta, Lorenzo; Hernandez, Julio C Montañez; Montico, Marcella; Moore, Ami R; Morawska, Lidia; Mori, Rintaro; Moschandreas, Joanna; Moturi, Wilkister N; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Mueller, Ulrich O; Mukaigawara, Mitsuru; Mullany, Erin C; Murthy, Kinnari S; Naghavi, Mohsen; Nahas, Ziad; Naheed, Aliya; Naidoo, Kovin S; Naldi, Luigi; Nand, Devina; Nangia, Vinay; Narayan, Km Venkat; Nash, Denis; Neal, Bruce; Nejjari, Chakib; Neupane, Sudan P; Newton, Charles R; Ngalesoni, Frida N; de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean; Nguyen, Grant; Nguyen, Nhung T; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J; Nisar, Muhammad I; Nogueira, José R; Nolla, Joan M; Nolte, Sandra; Norheim, Ole F; Norman, Rosana E; Norrving, Bo; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Oh, In-Hwan; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Olusanya, Bolajoko O; Omer, Saad B; Opio, John Nelson; Orozco, Ricardo; Pagcatipunan, Rodolfo S; Pain, Amanda W; Pandian, Jeyaraj D; Panelo, Carlo Irwin A; Papachristou, Christina; Park, Eun-Kee; Parry, Charles D; Caicedo, Angel J Paternina; Patten, Scott B; Paul, Vinod K; Pavlin, Boris I; Pearce, Neil; Pedraza, Lilia S; Pedroza, Andrea; Stokic, Ljiljana Pejin; Pekericli, Ayfer; Pereira, David M; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio; Perez-Ruiz, Fernando; Perico, Norberto; Perry, Samuel A L; Pervaiz, Aslam; Pesudovs, Konrad; Peterson, Carrie B; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael R; Phua, Hwee Pin; Plass, Dietrich; Poenaru, Dan; Polanczyk, Guilherme V; Polinder, Suzanne; Pond, Constance D; Pope, C Arden; Pope, Daniel; Popova, Svetlana; Pourmalek, Farshad; Powles, John; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Prasad, Noela M; Qato, Dima M; Quezada, Amado D; Quistberg, D Alex A; Racapé, Lionel; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi, Kazem; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Raju, Murugesan; Rakovac, Ivo; Rana, Saleem M; Rao, Mayuree; Razavi, Homie; Reddy, K Srinath; Refaat, Amany H; Rehm, Jürgen; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Ribeiro, Antonio L; Riccio, Patricia M; Richardson, Lee; Riederer, Anne; Robinson, Margaret; Roca, Anna; Rodriguez, Alina; Rojas-Rueda, David; Romieu, Isabelle; Ronfani, Luca; Room, Robin; Roy, Nobhojit; Ruhago, George M; Rushton, Lesley; Sabin, Nsanzimana; Sacco, Ralph L; Saha, Sukanta; Sahathevan, Ramesh; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali; Salomon, Joshua A; Salvo, Deborah; Sampson, Uchechukwu K; Sanabria, Juan R; Sanchez, Luz Maria; Sánchez-Pimienta, Tania G; Sanchez-Riera, Lidia; Sandar, Logan; Santos, Itamar S; Sapkota, Amir; Satpathy, Maheswar; Saunders, James E; Sawhney, Monika; Saylan, Mete I; Scarborough, Peter; Schmidt, Jürgen C; Schneider, Ione J C; Schöttker, Ben; Schwebel, David C; Scott, James G; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Serdar, Berrin; Servan-Mori, Edson E; Shaddick, Gavin; Shahraz, Saeid; Levy, Teresa Shamah; Shangguan, Siyi; She, Jun; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Hwashin H; Shinohara, Yukito; Shiri, Rahman; Shishani, Kawkab; Shiue, Ivy; Sigfusdottir, Inga D; Silberberg, Donald H; Simard, Edgar P; Sindi, Shireen; Singh, Abhishek; Singh, Gitanjali M; Singh, Jasvinder A; Skirbekk, Vegard; Sliwa, Karen; Soljak, Michael; Soneji, Samir; Søreide, Kjetil; Soshnikov, Sergey; Sposato, Luciano A; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T; Stapelberg, Nicolas J C; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki; Steckling, Nadine; Stein, Dan J; Stein, Murray B; Stephens, Natalie; Stöckl, Heidi; Straif, Kurt; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Sturua, Lela; Sunguya, Bruno F; Swaminathan, Soumya; Swaroop, Mamta; Sykes, Bryan L; Tabb, Karen M; Takahashi, Ken; Talongwa, Roberto T; Tandon, Nikhil; Tanne, David; Tanner, Marcel; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Te Ao, Braden J; Teixeira, Carolina M; Téllez Rojo, Martha M; Terkawi, Abdullah S; Texcalac-Sangrador, José Luis; Thackway, Sarah V; Thomson, Blake; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L; Thrift, Amanda G; Thurston, George D; Tillmann, Taavi; Tobollik, Myriam; Tonelli, Marcello; Topouzis, Fotis; Towbin, Jeffrey A; Toyoshima, Hideaki; Traebert, Jefferson; Tran, Bach X; Trasande, Leonardo; Trillini, Matias; Trujillo, Ulises; Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala; Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis; Tuzcu, Emin Murat; Uchendu, Uche S; Ukwaja, Kingsley N; Uzun, Selen B; van de Vijver, Steven; Van Dingenen, Rita; van Gool, Coen H; van Os, Jim; Varakin, Yuri Y; Vasankari, Tommi J; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria N; Vavilala, Monica S; Veerman, Lennert J; Velasquez-Melendez, Gustavo; Venketasubramanian, N; Vijayakumar, Lakshmi; Villalpando, Salvador; Violante, Francesco S; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Wagner, Gregory R; Waller, Stephen G; Wallin, Mitchell T; Wan, Xia; Wang, Haidong; Wang, JianLi; Wang, Linhong; Wang, Wenzhi; Wang, Yanping; Warouw, Tati S; Watts, Charlotte H; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G; Werdecker, Andrea; Wessells, K Ryan; Westerman, Ronny; Whiteford, Harvey A; Wilkinson, James D; Williams, Hywel C; Williams, Thomas N; Woldeyohannes, Solomon M; Wolfe, Charles D A; Wong, John Q; Woolf, Anthony D; Wright, Jonathan L; Wurtz, Brittany; Xu, Gelin; Yan, Lijing L; Yang, Gonghuan; Yano, Yuichiro; Ye, Pengpeng; Yenesew, Muluken; Yentür, Gökalp K; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Younis, Mustafa Z; Younoussi, Zourkaleini; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaki, Maysaa E; Zhao, Yong; Zheng, Yingfeng; Zhou, Maigeng; Zhu, Jun; Zhu, Shankuan; Zou, Xiaonong; Zunt, Joseph R; Lopez, Alan D; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for

  12. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

    Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.; Alexander, Lily; Anderson, H. Ross; Bachman, Victoria F.; Biryukov, Stan; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Casey, Daniel; Coates, Matthew M.; Cohen, Aaron; Delwiche, Kristen; Estep, Kara; Frostad, Joseph J.; Astha, K. C.; Kyu, Hmwe H.; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Ng, Marie; Slepak, Erica Leigh; Thomas, Bernadette A.; Wagner, Joseph; Aasvang, Gunn Marit; Abbafati, Cristiana; Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abera, Semaw F.; Aboyans, Victor; Abraham, Biju; Abraham, Jerry Puthenpurakal; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E.; Aburto, Tania C.; Achoki, Tom; Adelekan, Ademola; Adofo, Koranteng; Adou, Arsene K.; Adsuar, Jose C.; Afshin, Ashkan; Agardh, Emilie E.; Al Khabouri, Mazin J.; Al Lami, Faris H.; Alam, Sayed Saidul; Alasfoor, Deena; Albittar, Mohammed I.; Alegretti, Miguel A.; Aleman, Alicia V.; Alemu, Zewdie A.; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Hoek, Hans W.; Liu, Yang

    2015-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for

  13. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

    Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.; Alexander, Lily; Anderson, H. Ross; Bachman, Victoria F.; Biryukov, Stan; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Casey, Daniel; Coates, Matthew M.; Cohen, Aaron; Delwiche, Kristen; Estep, Kara; Frostad, Joseph J.; Astha, K. C.; Kyu, Hmwe H.; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Ng, Marie; Slepak, Erica Leigh; Thomas, Bernadette A.; Wagner, Joseph; Aasvang, Gunn Marit; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Ayse; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abera, Semaw F.; Aboyans, Victor; Abraham, Biju; Abraham, Jerry Puthenpurakal; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E.; Aburto, Tania C.; Achoki, Tom; Adelekan, Ademola; Adofo, Koranteng; Adou, Arsène K.; Adsuar, José C.; Afshin, Ashkan; Agardh, Emilie E.; Al Khabouri, Mazin J.; Al Lami, Faris H.; Alam, Sayed Saidul; Alasfoor, Deena; Albittar, Mohammed I.; Alegretti, Miguel A.; Aleman, Alicia V.; Alemu, Zewdie A.; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Alhabib, Samia; Ali, Raghib; Ali, Mohammed K.; Alla, François; Allebeck, Peter; Allen, Peter J.; Alsharif, Ubai; Alvarez, Elena; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amankwaa, Adansi A.; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Ameh, Emmanuel A.; Ameli, Omid; Amini, Heresh; Ammar, Walid; Anderson, Benjamin O.; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.; Anwari, Palwasha; Argeseanu Cunningham, Solveig; Arnlöv, Johan; Arsenijevic, Valentina S. Arsic; Artaman, Al; Asghar, Rana J.; Assadi, Reza; Atkins, Lydia S.; Atkinson, Charles; Avila, Marco A.; Awuah, Baffour; Badawi, Alaa; Bahit, Maria C.; Bakfalouni, Talal; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Balalla, Shivanthi; Balu, Ravi Kumar; Banerjee, Amitava; Barber, Ryan M.; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L.; Barquera, Simon; Barregard, Lars; Barrero, Lope H.; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Basto-Abreu, Ana C.; Basu, Arindam; Basu, Sanjay; Basulaiman, Mohammed O.; Batis Ruvalcaba, Carolina; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Bekele, Tolesa; Bell, Michelle L.; Benjet, Corina; Bennett, Derrick A.; Benzian, Habib; Bernabé, Eduardo; Beyene, Tariku J.; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhalla, Ashish; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.; Bikbov, Boris; Bin Abdulhak, Aref A.; Blore, Jed D.; Blyth, Fiona M.; Bohensky, Megan A.; Bora Başara, Berrak; Borges, Guilherme; Bornstein, Natan M.; Bose, Dipan; Boufous, Soufiane; Bourne, Rupert R.; Brainin, Michael; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas J.; Brenner, Hermann; Briggs, Adam D. M.; Broday, David M.; Brooks, Peter M.; Bruce, Nigel G.; Brugha, Traolach S.; Brunekreef, Bert; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Bui, Linh N.; Bukhman, Gene; Bulloch, Andrew G.; Burch, Michael; Burney, Peter G. J.; Campos-Nonato, Ismael R.; Campuzano, Julio C.; Cantoral, Alejandra J.; Caravanos, Jack; Cárdenas, Rosario; Cardis, Elisabeth; Carpenter, David O.; Caso, Valeria; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A.; Castro, Ruben E.; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Cavalleri, Fiorella; Çavlin, Alanur; Chadha, Vineet K.; Chang, Jung-Chen; Charlson, Fiona J.; Chen, Honglei; Chen, Wanqing; Chen, Zhengming; Chiang, Peggy P.; Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christophi, Costas A.; Chuang, Ting-Wu; Chugh, Sumeet S.; Cirillo, Massimo; Claßen, Thomas K. D.; Colistro, Valentina; Colomar, Mercedes; Colquhoun, Samantha M.; Contreras, Alejandra G.; Cooper, Cyrus; Cooperrider, Kimberly; Cooper, Leslie T.; Coresh, Josef; Courville, Karen J.; Criqui, Michael H.; Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia; Damsere-Derry, James; Danawi, Hadi; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Dargan, Paul I.; Davis, Adrian; Davitoiu, Dragos V.; Dayama, Anand; de Castro, E. Filipa; de la Cruz-Góngora, Vanessa; de Leo, Diego; de Lima, Graça; Degenhardt, Louisa; del Pozo-Cruz, Borja; Dellavalle, Robert P.; Deribe, Kebede; Derrett, Sarah; des Jarlais, Don C.; Dessalegn, Muluken; deVeber, Gabrielle A.; Devries, Karen M.; Dharmaratne, Samath D.; Dherani, Mukesh K.; Dicker, Daniel; Ding, Eric L.; Dokova, Klara; Dorsey, E. Ray; Driscoll, Tim R.; Duan, Leilei; Durrani, Adnan M.; Ebel, Beth E.; Ellenbogen, Richard G.; Elshrek, Yousef M.; Endres, Matthias; Ermakov, Sergey P.; Erskine, Holly E.; Eshrati, Babak; Esteghamati, Alireza; Fahimi, Saman; Faraon, Emerito Jose A.; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fay, Derek F. J.; Feigin, Valery L.; Feigl, Andrea B.; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Ferrari, Alize J.; Ferri, Cleusa P.; Flaxman, Abraham D.; Fleming, Thomas D.; Foigt, Nataliya; Foreman, Kyle J.; Paleo, Urbano Fra; Franklin, Richard C.; Gabbe, Belinda; Gaffikin, Lynne; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Gamkrelidze, Amiran; Gankpé, Fortuné G.; Gansevoort, Ron T.; García-Guerra, Francisco A.; Gasana, Evariste; Geleijnse, Johanna M.; Gessner, Bradford D.; Gething, Pete; Gibney, Katherine B.; Gillum, Richard F.; Ginawi, Ibrahim A. M.; Giroud, Maurice; Giussani, Giorgia; Goenka, Shifalika; Goginashvili, Ketevan; Gomez Dantes, Hector; Gona, Philimon; Gonzalez de Cosio, Teresita; González-Castell, Dinorah; Gotay, Carolyn C.; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N.; Guerrant, Richard L.; Gugnani, Harish C.; Guillemin, Francis; Gunnell, David; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gutiérrez, Reyna A.; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hagan, Holly; Hagstromer, Maria; Halasa, Yara A.; Hamadeh, Randah R.; Hammami, Mouhanad; Hankey, Graeme J.; Hao, Yuantao; Harb, Hilda L.; Haregu, Tilahun Nigatu; Haro, Josep Maria; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hay, Simon I.; Hedayati, Mohammad T.; Heredia-Pi, Ileana B.; Hernandez, Lucia; Heuton, Kyle R.; Heydarpour, Pouria; Hijar, Martha; Hoek, Hans W.; Hoffman, Howard J.; Hornberger, John C.; Hosgood, H. Dean; Hoy, Damian G.; Hsairi, Mohamed; Hu, Guoqing; Hu, Howard; Huang, Cheng; Huang, John J.; Hubbell, Bryan J.; Huiart, Laetitia; Husseini, Abdullatif; Iannarone, Marissa L.; Iburg, Kim M.; Idrisov, Bulat T.; Ikeda, Nayu; Innos, Kaire; Inoue, Manami; Islami, Farhad; Ismayilova, Samaya; Jacobsen, Kathryn H.; Jansen, Henrica A.; Jarvis, Deborah L.; Jassal, Simerjot K.; Jauregui, Alejandra; Jayaraman, Sudha; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jensen, Paul N.; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Fan; Jiang, Guohong; Jiang, Ying; Jonas, Jost B.; Juel, Knud; Kan, Haidong; Kany Roseline, Sidibe S.; Karam, Nadim E.; Karch, André; Karema, Corine K.; Karthikeyan, Ganesan; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Kazi, Dhruv S.; Kemp, Andrew H.; Kengne, Andre P.; Keren, Andre; Khader, Yousef S.; Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan; Khan, Ejaz A.; Khang, Young-Ho; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Khonelidze, Irma; Kieling, Christian; Kim, Daniel; Kim, Sungroul; Kim, Yunjin; Kimokoti, Ruth W.; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kinge, Jonas M.; Kissela, Brett M.; Kivipelto, Miia; Knibbs, Luke D.; Knudsen, Ann Kristin; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kose, M. Rifat; Kosen, Soewarta; Kraemer, Alexander; Kravchenko, Michael; Krishnaswami, Sanjay; Kromhout, Hans; Ku, Tiffany; Kuate Defo, Barthelemy; Kucuk Bicer, Burcu; Kuipers, Ernst J.; Kulkarni, Chanda; Kulkarni, Veena S.; Kumar, G. Anil; Kwan, Gene F.; Lai, Taavi; Lakshmana Balaji, Arjun; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lallukka, Tea; Lam, Hilton; Lan, Qing; Lansingh, Van C.; Larson, Heidi J.; Larsson, Anders; Laryea, Dennis O.; Lavados, Pablo M.; Lawrynowicz, Alicia E.; Leasher, Janet L.; Lee, Jong-Tae; Leigh, James; Leung, Ricky; Levi, Miriam; Li, Yichong; Li, Yongmei; Liang, Juan; Liang, Xiaofeng; Lim, Stephen S.; Lindsay, M. Patrice; Lipshultz, Steven E.; Liu, Shiwei; Liu, Yang; Lloyd, Belinda K.; Logroscino, Giancarlo; London, Stephanie J.; Lopez, Nancy; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Lotufo, Paulo A.; Lozano, Rafael; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Ma, Jixiang; Ma, Stefan; Machado, Vasco M. P.; MacIntyre, Michael F.; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Mahdi, Abbas A.; Majdan, Marek; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mangalam, Srikanth; Mapoma, Christopher C.; Marape, Marape; Marcenes, Wagner; Margolis, David J.; Margono, Christopher; Marks, Guy B.; Martin, Randall V.; Marzan, Melvin B.; Mashal, Mohammad T.; Masiye, Felix; Mason-Jones, Amanda J.; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Matzopoulos, Richard; Mayosi, Bongani M.; Mazorodze, Tasara T.; McKay, Abigail C.; McKee, Martin; McLain, Abigail; Meaney, Peter A.; Medina, Catalina; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola; Mekonnen, Wubegzier; Melaku, Yohannes A.; Meltzer, Michele; Memish, Ziad A.; Mendoza, Walter; Mensah, George A.; Meretoja, Atte; Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary; Micha, Renata; Miller, Ted R.; Mills, Edward J.; Misganaw, Awoke; Mishra, Santosh; Mohamed Ibrahim, Norlinah; Mohammad, Karzan A.; Mokdad, Ali H.; Mola, Glen L.; Monasta, Lorenzo; Montañez Hernandez, Julio C.; Montico, Marcella; Moore, Ami R.; Morawska, Lidia; Mori, Rintaro; Moschandreas, Joanna; Moturi, Wilkister N.; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Mueller, Ulrich O.; Mukaigawara, Mitsuru; Mullany, Erin C.; Murthy, Kinnari S.; Naghavi, Mohsen; Nahas, Ziad; Naheed, Aliya; Naidoo, Kovin S.; Naldi, Luigi; Nand, Devina; Nangia, Vinay; Narayan, K. M. Venkat; Nash, Denis; Neal, Bruce; Nejjari, Chakib; Neupane, Sudan P.; Newton, Charles R.; Ngalesoni, Frida N.; Ngirabega, Jean de Dieu; Nguyen, Grant; Nguyen, Nhung T.; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J.; Nisar, Muhammad I.; Nogueira, José R.; Nolla, Joan M.; Nolte, Sandra; Norheim, Ole F.; Norman, Rosana E.; Norrving, Bo; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Oh, In-Hwan; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Olusanya, Bolajoko O.; Omer, Saad B.; Opio, John Nelson; Orozco, Ricardo; Pagcatipunan, Rodolfo S.; Pain, Amanda W.; Pandian, Jeyaraj D.; Panelo, Carlo Irwin A.; Papachristou, Christina; Park, Eun-Kee; Parry, Charles D.; Paternina Caicedo, Angel J.; Patten, Scott B.; Paul, Vinod K.; Pavlin, Boris I.; Pearce, Neil; Pedraza, Lilia S.; Pedroza, Andrea; Pejin Stokic, Ljiljana; Pekericli, Ayfer; Pereira, David M.; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio; Perez-Ruiz, Fernando; Perico, Norberto; Perry, Samuel A. L.; Pervaiz, Aslam; Pesudovs, Konrad; Peterson, Carrie B.; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael R.; Phua, Hwee Pin; Plass, Dietrich; Poenaru, Dan; Polanczyk, Guilherme V.; Polinder, Suzanne; Pond, Constance D.; Pope, C. Arden; Pope, Daniel; Popova, Svetlana; Pourmalek, Farshad; Powles, John; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Prasad, Noela M.; Qato, Dima M.; Quezada, Amado D.; Quistberg, D. Alex A.; Racapé, Lionel; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi, Kazem; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Raju, Murugesan; Rakovac, Ivo; Rana, Saleem M.; Rao, Mayuree; Razavi, Homie; Reddy, K. Srinath; Refaat, Amany H.; Rehm, Jürgen; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Ribeiro, Antonio L.; Riccio, Patricia M.; Richardson, Lee; Riederer, Anne; Robinson, Margaret; Roca, Anna; Rodriguez, Alina; Rojas-Rueda, David; Romieu, Isabelle; Ronfani, Luca; Room, Robin; Roy, Nobhojit; Ruhago, George M.; Rushton, Lesley; Sabin, Nsanzimana; Sacco, Ralph L.; Saha, Sukanta; Sahathevan, Ramesh; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali; Salomon, Joshua A.; Salvo, Deborah; Sampson, Uchechukwu K.; Sanabria, Juan R.; Sanchez, Luz Maria; Sánchez-Pimienta, Tania G.; Sanchez-Riera, Lidia; Sandar, Logan; Santos, Itamar S.; Sapkota, Amir; Satpathy, Maheswar; Saunders, James E.; Sawhney, Monika; Saylan, Mete I.; Scarborough, Peter; Schmidt, Jürgen C.; Schneider, Ione J. C.; Schöttker, Ben; Schwebel, David C.; Scott, James G.; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G.; Serdar, Berrin; Servan-Mori, Edson E.; Shaddick, Gavin; Shahraz, Saeid; Levy, Teresa Shamah; Shangguan, Siyi; She, Jun; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Hwashin H.; Shinohara, Yukito; Shiri, Rahman; Shishani, Kawkab; Shiue, Ivy; Sigfusdottir, Inga D.; Silberberg, Donald H.; Simard, Edgar P.; Sindi, Shireen; Singh, Abhishek; Singh, Gitanjali M.; Singh, Jasvinder A.; Skirbekk, Vegard; Sliwa, Karen; Soljak, Michael; Soneji, Samir; Søreide, Kjetil; Soshnikov, Sergey; Sposato, Luciano A.; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T.; Stapelberg, Nicolas J. C.; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki; Steckling, Nadine; Stein, Dan J.; Stein, Murray B.; Stephens, Natalie; Stöckl, Heidi; Straif, Kurt; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Sturua, Lela; Sunguya, Bruno F.; Swaminathan, Soumya; Swaroop, Mamta; Sykes, Bryan L.; Tabb, Karen M.; Takahashi, Ken; Talongwa, Roberto T.; Tandon, Nikhil; Tanne, David; Tanner, Marcel; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; te Ao, Braden J.; Teixeira, Carolina M.; Téllez Rojo, Martha M.; Terkawi, Abdullah S.; Texcalac-Sangrador, José Luis; Thackway, Sarah V.; Thomson, Blake; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L.; Thrift, Amanda G.; Thurston, George D.; Tillmann, Taavi; Tobollik, Myriam; Tonelli, Marcello; Topouzis, Fotis; Towbin, Jeffrey A.; Toyoshima, Hideaki; Traebert, Jefferson; Tran, Bach X.; Trasande, Leonardo; Trillini, Matias; Trujillo, Ulises; Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala; Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis; Tuzcu, Emin Murat; Uchendu, Uche S.; Ukwaja, Kingsley N.; Uzun, Selen B.; van de Vijver, Steven; van Dingenen, Rita; van Gool, Coen H.; van Os, Jim; Varakin, Yuri Y.; Vasankari, Tommi J.; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria N.; Vavilala, Monica S.; Veerman, Lennert J.; Velasquez-Melendez, Gustavo; Venketasubramanian, N.; Vijayakumar, Lakshmi; Villalpando, Salvador; Violante, Francesco S.; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Wagner, Gregory R.; Waller, Stephen G.; Wallin, Mitchell T.; Wan, Xia; Wang, Haidong; Wang, JianLi; Wang, Linhong; Wang, Wenzhi; Wang, Yanping; Warouw, Tati S.; Watts, Charlotte H.; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G.; Werdecker, Andrea; Wessells, K. Ryan; Westerman, Ronny; Whiteford, Harvey A.; Wilkinson, James D.; Williams, Hywel C.; Williams, Thomas N.; Woldeyohannes, Solomon M.; Wolfe, Charles D. A.; Wong, John Q.; Woolf, Anthony D.; Wright, Jonathan L.; Wurtz, Brittany; Xu, Gelin; Yan, Lijing L.; Yang, Gonghuan; Yano, Yuichiro; Ye, Pengpeng; Yenesew, Muluken; Yentür, Gökalp K.; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Younis, Mustafa Z.; Younoussi, Zourkaleini; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaki, Maysaa E.; Zhao, Yong; Zheng, Yingfeng; Zhou, Maigeng; Zhu, Jun; Zhu, Shankuan; Zou, Xiaonong; Zunt, Joseph R.; Lopez, Alan D.; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J.

    2015-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for

  14. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

    Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbas, Kaja M.; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abdulle, Abdishakur M.; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Aboyans, Victor; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E; Abyu, Gebre Yitayih; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi; Adetokunboh, Olatunji; Afarideh, Mohsen; Afshin, Ashkan; Agrawal, Anurag; Agrawal, Sutapa; Ahmadieh, Hamid; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine; Aichour, Amani Nidhal; Aichour, Ibtihel; Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola; Akseer, Nadia; Alahdab, Fares; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Noore; Alam, Tahiya; Alasfoor, Deena; Alene, Kefyalew Addis; Ali, Komal; Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza; Alkerwi, Ala'a; Alla, François; Allebeck, Peter; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa; Alsharif, Ubai; Altirkawi, Khalid A.; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amare, Azmeraw T; Amini, Erfan; Ammar, Walid; Amoako, Yaw Ampem; Ansari, Hossein; Antó, Josep M.; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Anwari, Palwasha; Arian, Nicholas; Ärnlöv, Johan; Artaman, Al; Aryal, Krishna Kumar; Asayesh, Hamid; Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal; Atey, Tesfay Mehari; Avila-Burgos, Leticia; Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G.Arthur; Awasthi, Ashish; Azzopardi, Peter; Bacha, Umar; Badawi, Alaa; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Ballew, Shoshana H.; Barac, Aleksandra; Barber, Ryan M; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L; Bärnighausen, Till; Barquera, Simon; Barregard, Lars; Barrero, Lope H; Batis, Carolina; Battle, Katherine E.; Baumgarner, Blair R.; Baune, Bernhard T.; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Beghi, Ettore; Bell, Michelle L; Bennett, Derrick A; Bennett, James R.; Bensenor, Isabela M.; Berhane, Adugnaw; Berhe, Derbew Fikadu; Bernabé, Eduardo; Betsu, Balem Demtsu; Beuran, Mircea; Beyene, Addisu Shunu; Bhansali, Anil; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Bicer, Burcu Kucuk; Bikbov, Boris; Birungi, Charles; Biryukov, Stan; Blosser, Christopher D.; Boneya, Dube Jara; Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R.; Brauer, Michael; Breitborde, Nicholas J.K.; Brenner, Hermann; Brugha, Traolach S; Bulto, Lemma Negesa Bulto; Butt, Zahid A.; Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero; Cárdenas, Rosario; Carrero, Juan Jesus; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Cercy, Kelly; Chang, Hsing Yi; Charlson, Fiona J; Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel; Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe; Chitheer, Abdulaal A.; Christensen, Hanne; Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas; Cirillo, Massimo; Cohen, Aaron J; Comfort, Haley; Cooper, Cyrus; Coresh, Josef; Cornaby, Leslie; Cortesi, Paolo Angelo; Criqui, Michael H; Crump, John A; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; das Neves, José; Davey, Gail; Davitoiu, Dragos V; Davletov, Kairat; de Courten, Barbora; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate; Degenhardt, Louisa; Deiparine, Selina; Dellavalle, Robert P; Deribe, Kebede; Deshpande, Aniruddha; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Ding, Eric L; Djalalinia, Shirin; Do, Huyen Phuc; Dokova, Klara; Doku, David Teye; Donkelaar, Aaron van; Dorsey, E Ray; Driscoll, Tim R; Dubey, Manisha; Duncan, Bruce Bartholow; Duncan, Sarah; Ebrahimi, Hedyeh; El-Khatib, Ziad Ziad; Enayati, Ahmadali; Endries, Aman Yesuf; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich; Erskine, Holly E; Eshrati, Babak; Eskandarieh, Sharareh; Esteghamati, Alireza; Estep, Kara; Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino; Farinha, Carla Sofia e.Sa; Faro, André; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fay, Kairsten; Feigin, Valery L; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Fernandes, João C.; Ferrari, Alize J; Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa; Filip, Irina; Fischer, Florian; Fitzmaurice, Christina; Flaxman, Abraham D; Foigt, Nataliya; Foreman, Kyle J; Frostad, Joseph J; Fullman, Nancy; Fürst, Thomas; Furtado, Joao M.; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Ganji, Morsaleh; Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L.; Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde; Geleijnse, Johanna M.; Geleto, Ayele; Gemechu, Bikila Lencha; Gesesew, Hailay Abrha; Gething, Peter W.; Ghajar, Alireza; Gibney, Katherine B; Gill, Paramjit Singh; Gillum, Richard F; Giref, Ababi Zergaw; Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo; Giussani, Giorgia; Godwin, William W.; Gona, Philimon N.; Goodridge, Amador; Gopalani, Sameer Vali; Goryakin, Yevgeniy; Goulart, Alessandra Carvalho; Graetz, Nicholas; Gugnani, Harish Chander; Guo, Jingwen; Gupta, Rajeev; Gupta, Tanush; Gupta, Vipin; Gutiérrez, Reyna A; Hachinski, Vladimir; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi; Hamidi, Samer; Hammami, Mouhanad; Handal, Alexis J.; Hankey, Graeme J.; Hanson, Sarah Wulf; Harb, Hilda L; Hareri, Habtamu Abera; Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hawley, Caitlin; Hay, Simon I; Hedayati, Mohammad T; Hendrie, Delia; Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz; Hernandez, Julio Cesar Montañez; Hoek, Hans W; Horita, Nobuyuki; Hosgood, H. Dean; Hostiuc, Sorin; Hoy, Damian G; Hsairi, Mohamed; Hu, Guoqing; Huang, John J; Huang, Hsiang; Ibrahim, Norlinah Mohamed; Iburg, Kim Moesgaard; Ikeda, Chad; Inoue, Manami; Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter; Jackson, Maria Delores; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Jahanmehr, Nader; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B.; Jauregui, Alejandra; Javanbakht, Mehdi; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Johansson, Lars R.K.; Johnson, Catherine O.; Jonas, Jost B; Jürisson, Mikk; Kabir, Zubair; Kadel, Rajendra; Kahsay, Amaha; Kamal, Ritul; Karch, André; Karema, Corine Kakizi; Kasaeian, Amir; Kassebaum, Nicholas J.; Kastor, Anshul; Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal; Kawakami, Norito; Keiyoro, Peter Njenga; Kelbore, Sefonias Getachew; Kemmer, Laura; Kengne, Andre Pascal; Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khalil, Ibrahim A.; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Khang, Young-Ho; Khosravi, Ardeshir; Khubchandani, Jagdish; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad; Kieling, Christian; Kim, Jun Y.; Kim, Yun Jin; Kim, Daniel; Kimokoti, Ruth W; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kisa, Adnan; Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna A.; Kivimaki, Mika; Knibbs, Luke D; Knudsen, Ann Kristin; Kopec, Jacek A.; Kosen, Soewarta; Koul, Parvaiz A.; Koyanagi, Ai; Kravchenko, Michael; Krohn, Kristopher J.; Kromhout, Hans|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/074385224; Kumar, G Anil; Kutz, Michael; Kyu, Hmwe H; Lal, Dharmesh Kumar; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lallukka, Tea; Lan, Qing; Lansingh, Van C; Larsson, Anders; Lee, Paul H.; Lee, Alexander; Leigh, James; Leung, Janni; Levi, Miriam; Levy, Teresa Shamah; Li, Yichong; Li, Yongmei; Liang, Xiaofeng; Liben, Misgan Legesse; Lim, Stephen S; Linn, Shai; Liu, Patrick; Lodha, Rakesh; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Looker, Katherine J.; Lopez, Alan D; Lorkowski, Stefan; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lozano, Rafael; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King; Magdy Abd El Razek, Hassan; Magdy Abd El Razek, Mohammed; Majdan, Marek; Majdzadeh, Reza; Majeed, Azeem; Malekzadeh, Reza; Malhotra, Rajesh; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Mamun, Abdullah A.; Manguerra, Helena; Mantovani, Lorenzo G.; Mapoma, Chabila C.; Martin, Randall V; Martinez-Raga, Jose; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Mathur, Manu Raj; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Matzopoulos, Richard; Mazidi, Mohsen; McAlinden, Colm; McGrath, John W; Mehata, Suresh; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Meier, Toni; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Memiah, Peter; Memish, Ziad A.; Mendoza, Walter; Mengesha, Melkamu Merid; Mensah, George A; Mensink, Gert B.M.; Mereta, Seid Tiku; Meretoja, Tuomo J.; Meretoja, Atte; Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane; Micha, Renata; Millear, Anoushka; Miller, Ted R; Minnig, Shawn; Mirarefin, Mojde; Mirrakhimov, Erkin M.; Misganaw, Awoke; Mishra, Shiva Raj; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin; Mohammed, Kedir Endris; Mohammed, Shafiu; Mohan, Murali B.V.; Mokdad, Ali H; Monasta, Lorenzo; Montico, Marcella; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Moraga, Paula; Morawska, Lidia; Morrison, Shane D.; Mountjoy-Venning, Cliff; Mueller, Ulrich O; Mullany, Erin C; Muller, Kate; Murray, Christopher J L; Murthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana; Musa, Kamarul Imran; Naghavi, Mohsen; Naheed, Aliya; Nangia, Vinay; Natarajan, Gopalakrishnan; Negoi, Ruxandra Irina; Negoi, Ionut; Nguyen, Cuong Tat; Nguyen, Quyen Le; Nguyen, Trang Huyen; Nguyen, Grant; Nguyen, Minh Hao; Nichols, Emma; Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini; Nomura, Marika; Nong, Vuong Minh; Norheim, Ole F; Norrving, Bo; Noubiap, Jean Jacques N.; Obermeyer, Carla Makhlouf; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene; Oh, In-Hwan; Oladimeji, Olanrewaju; Olagunju, Andrew Toyin; Olagunju, Tinuke Oluwasefunmi; Olivares, Pedro R.; Olsen, Helen E.; Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola; Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun; Opio, John Nelson; Oren, Eyal; Ortiz, Alberto; Ota, Erika; Owolabi, Mayowa O.; PA, Mahesh; Pacella, Rosana E.; Pana, Adrian; Panda, Basant Kumar; Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra; Pandian, Jeyaraj D; Papachristou, Christina; Park, Eun-Kee; Parry, Charles D; Patten, Scott B; Patton, George C.; Pereira, David M; Perico, Norberto; Pesudovs, Konrad; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael Robert; Pillay, Julian David; Piradov, Michael A.; Pishgar, Farhad; Plass, Dietrich; Pletcher, Martin A.; Polinder, Suzanne; Popova, Svetlana; Poulton, Richie G.; Pourmalek, Farshad; Prasad, Narayan; Purcell, Carrie; Qorbani, Mostafa; Radfar, Amir; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur; Rahman, Muhammad Aziz; Rahman, Mahfuzar; Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Rajsic, Sasa; Ram, Usha; Rawaf, Salman; Rehm, Colin D.; Rehm, Jürgen; Reiner, Robert C.; Reitsma, Marissa B.; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Renzaho, Andre M.N.; Resnikoff, Serge; Reynales-Shigematsu, Luz Myriam; Rezaei, Satar; Ribeiro, Antonio L; Rivera, Juan A.; Roba, Kedir Teji; Rojas-Rueda, David; Roman, Yesenia; Room, Robin; Roshandel, Gholamreza; Roth, Gregory A.; Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Rubagotti, Enrico; Rushton, Lesley; Sadat, Nafis; Safdarian, Mahdi; Safi, Sare; Safiri, Saeid; Sahathevan, Ramesh; Salama, Joseph; Salomon, Joshua A; Samy, Abdallah M.; Sanabria, Juan Ramon; Sanchez-Niño, Maria Dolores; Sánchez-Pimienta, Tania G; Santomauro, Damian; Santos, Itamar S; Santric Milicevic, Milena M.; Sartorius, Benn; Satpathy, Maheswar; Sawhney, Monika; Saxena, Sonia; Schmidt, Maria Inês; Schneider, Ione J C; Schutte, Aletta E.; Schwebel, David C; Schwendicke, Falk; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Serdar, Berrin; Servan-Mori, Edson E; Shaddick, Gavin; Shaheen, Amira; Shahraz, Saeid; Shaikh, Masood Ali; Shamsipour, Mansour; Shamsizadeh, Morteza; Shariful Islam, Sheikh Mohammed; Sharma, Jayendra; Sharma, Rajesh; She, Jun; Shen, Jiabin; Shi, Peilin; Shibuya, Kenji; Shields, Chloe; Shiferaw, Mekonnen Sisay; Shigematsu, Mika; Shin, Min Jeong; Shiri, Rahman; Shirkoohi, Reza; Shishani, Kawkab; Shoman, Haitham; Shrime, Mark G.; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora; Silva, Diego Augusto Santos; Silva, João Pedro; Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves; Singh, Jasvinder A; Singh, Virendra; Sinha, Dhirendra Narain; Skiadaresi, Eirini; Slepak, Erica Leigh; Smith, David L.; Smith, Mari; Sobaih, Badr H.A.; Sobngwi, Eugene; Soneji, Samir; Sorensen, Reed J.D.; Sposato, Luciano A; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T; Srinivasan, Vinay; Steel, Nicholas; Stein, Dan J.; Steiner, Caitlyn; Steinke, Sabine; Stokes, Mark Andrew; Strub, Bryan; Subart, Michelle; Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale; Suliankatchi, Rizwan Abdulkader; Sur, Patrick J.; Swaminathan, Soumya; Sykes, Bryan L; Szoeke, Cassandra E.I.; Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael; Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar; Takahashi, Ken; Takala, Jukka S.; Tandon, Nikhil; Tanner, Marcel; Tarekegn, Yihunie L.; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Tegegne, Teketo Kassaw; Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash; Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman; Tesssema, Belay; Thakur, J. S.; Thamsuwan, Ornwipa; Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman; Theis, Andrew M.; Thomas, Matthew Lloyd; Thomson, Alan J.; Thrift, Amanda G; Tillmann, Taavi; Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan; Tobollik, Myriam; Tollanes, Mette C.; Tonelli, Marcello; Topor-Madry, Roman; Torre, Anna; Tortajada, Miguel; Touvier, Mathilde; Tran, Bach Xuan; Truelsen, Thomas; Tuem, Kald Beshir; Tuzcu, Emin Murat; Tyrovolas, Stefanos; Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna; Uneke, Chigozie Jesse; Updike, Rachel; Uthman, Olalekan A.; van Boven, Job F.M.; Varughese, Santosh; Vasankari, Tommi J; Veerman, Lennert J; Venkateswaran, Vidhya; Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy; Violante, Francesco S; Vladimirov, Sergey K.; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Vos, Theo; Wadilo, Fiseha; Wakayo, Tolassa; Wallin, Mitchell T; Wang, Yuan Pang; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G; Weiss, Daniel J.; Werdecker, Andrea; Westerman, Ronny; Whiteford, Harvey A; Wiysonge, Charles Shey; Woldeyes, Belete Getahun; Wolfe, Charles D A; Woodbrook, Rachel; Workicho, Abdulhalik; Xavier, Denis; Xu, Gelin; Yadgir, Simon; Yakob, Bereket; Yan, Lijing L; Yaseri, Mehdi; Yimam, Hassen Hamid; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Yotebieng, Marcel; Younis, Mustafa Z; Zaidi, Zoubida; Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed; Zavala-Arciniega, Luis; Zhang, Xueying; Zimsen, Stephanie Raman M.; Zipkin, Ben; Zodpey, Sanjay

    2017-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health

  15. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

    Gakidou, Emmanuela; Geleijnse, J.M.

    2017-01-01

    Background
    The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to

  16. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

    Gakidou, Emmanuela; Afshin, Ashkan; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbas, Kaja M.; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abdulle, Abdishakur M.; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Aboyans, Victor; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E.; Abyu, Gebre Yitayih; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi; Adetokunboh, Olatunji; Afarideh, Mohsen; Agrawal, Anurag; Agrawal, Sutapa; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad; Ahmadieh, Hamid; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Aichour, Amani Nidhal; Aichour, Ibtihel; Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine; Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola; Akseer, Nadia; Alahdab, Fares; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Noore; Alam, Tahiya; Alasfoor, Deena; Alene, Kefyalew Addis; Ali, Komal; Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza; Alkerwi, Ala'a; Alla, Francois; Allebeck, Peter; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa; Alsharif, Ubai; Altirkawi, Khalid A.; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Amini, Erfan; Ammar, Walid; Amoako, Yaw Ampem; Ansari, Hossein; Berhe, Derbew Fikadu; Hoek, Hans W.; van Boven, Job F. M.

    2017-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health

  17. Modulators of mercury risk to wildlife and humans in the context of rapid global change

    Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Silbergeld, Ellen K.; Basu, Niladri; Bustamante, Paco; Diaz-Barriga, Fernando; Hopkins, William A.; Kidd, Karen A.; Nyland, Jennifer F.

    2018-01-01

    Environmental mercury (Hg) contamination is an urgent global health threat. The complexity of Hg in the environment can hinder accurate determination of ecological and human health risks, particularly within the context of the rapid global changes that are altering many ecological processes, socioeconomic patterns, and other factors like infectious disease incidence, which can affect Hg exposures and health outcomes. However, the success of global Hg-reduction efforts depends on accurate assessments of their effectiveness in reducing health risks. In this paper, we examine the role that key extrinsic and intrinsic drivers play on several aspects of Hg risk to humans and organisms in the environment. We do so within three key domains of ecological and human health risk. First, we examine how extrinsic global change drivers influence pathways of Hg bioaccumulation and biomagnification through food webs. Next, we describe how extrinsic socioeconomic drivers at a global scale, and intrinsic individual-level drivers, influence human Hg exposure. Finally, we address how the adverse health effects of Hg in humans and wildlife are modulated by a range of extrinsic and intrinsic drivers within the context of rapid global change. Incorporating components of these three domains into research and monitoring will facilitate a more holistic understanding of how ecological and societal drivers interact to influence Hg health risks.

  18. Global Risks as Factors that Affect the Current system of international Relations

    Irina A. Zaitseva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The problem of the globalization of risks is examined in this article. Based on the World Economic Forum (WEF report on global risks 2015-2017, the impact of global risks on the social and economic development of countries is examined. Economic, social, environmental, geopolitical, technological risks are analyzed in a coordinated fashion. The article notes that the main risks are in the field of environment and ecology. Anthropogenic pressure amplification, scientific and technological advance have an influence on the natural environment. The risks of infrastructure and environmental damage in danger zone are increased because of the growth of the frequency of extreme weather events. The measures for the protection of the environment are examined. The unilateral approach to solving international issues, instead of the collective efforts of the international community; the deployment of weapons of mass destruction (nuclear, chemical, biological and technologies for the production of radioactive materials; escalation of economic and resource nationalization (the desire of States to expropriate or restrict the export of important for the world economy of resources, etc. promote the increasing geopolitical risks.Economic risks include the risk in terms of their likelihood their impact on the macroeconomic, as from the financial systems and infrastructure to price volatility and regulatory issues. Social risks are the risks relating to instability of population dynamics, social crises and human survival.Technological risks include such problems as software defects, failure of important information systems, upon which today industrial production is depended, the services and communications sector; the escalation of large-scale cyber-attacks; theft of electronic information and the illegal usage of personal data. The trends that can intensify the global risks or to change the correlation between them are analyzed in this article.

  19. Global distribution and drivers of language extinction risk

    Amano, Tatsuya; Sandel, Brody Steven; Eager, Heidi

    2014-01-01

    latitudes and are strongly linked to high economic growth. Threatened languages are numerous in the tropics, the Himalayas and northwestern North America. These results indicate that small-population languages remaining in economically developed regions are seriously threatened by continued speaker declines....... However, risks of future language losses are especially high in the tropics and in the Himalayas, as these regions harbour many small-population languages and are undergoing rapid economic growth....

  20. Chemical Risk Assessment Screening Tool of a Global Chemical Company

    Evelyn Tjoe-Nij; Christophe Rochin; Nathalie Berne; Alessandro Sassi; Antoine Leplay

    2018-01-01

    Background: This paper describes a simple-to-use and reliable screening tool called Critical Task Exposure Screening (CTES), developed by a chemical company. The tool assesses if the exposure to a chemical for a task is likely to be within acceptable levels. Methods: CTES is a Microsoft Excel tool, where the inhalation risk score is calculated by relating the exposure estimate to the corresponding occupational exposure limit (OEL) or occupational exposure band (OEB). The inhalation exposure i...

  1. Chemical Risk Assessment Screening Tool of a Global Chemical Company

    Evelyn Tjoe-Nij

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: This paper describes a simple-to-use and reliable screening tool called Critical Task Exposure Screening (CTES, developed by a chemical company. The tool assesses if the exposure to a chemical for a task is likely to be within acceptable levels. Methods: CTES is a Microsoft Excel tool, where the inhalation risk score is calculated by relating the exposure estimate to the corresponding occupational exposure limit (OEL or occupational exposure band (OEB. The inhalation exposure is estimated for tasks by preassigned ART1.5 activity classes and modifying factors. Results: CTES requires few inputs. The toxicological data, including OELs, OEBs, and vapor pressure are read from a database. Once the substance is selected, the user specifies its concentration and then chooses the task description and its duration. CTES has three outputs that may trigger follow-up: (1 inhalation risk score; (2 identification of the skin hazard with the skin warnings for local and systemic adverse effects; and (3 status for carcinogenic, mutagenic, or reprotoxic effects. Conclusion: The tool provides an effective way to rapidly screen low-concern tasks, and quickly identifies certain tasks involving substances that will need further review with, nevertheless, the appropriate conservatism. This tool shows that the higher-tier ART1.5 inhalation exposure assessment model can be included effectively in a screening tool. After 2 years of worldwide extensive use within the company, CTES is well perceived by the users, including the shop floor management, and it fulfills its target of screening tool. Keywords: occupational exposure, risk assessment, risk management

  2. Global Amphibian Extinction Risk Assessment for the Panzootic Chytrid Fungus

    Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Bielby, Jon; Schmidtlein, Sebastian; Bosch, Jaime; Garner, Trenton W. J.; Veith, Michael; Walker, Susan; Fisher, Matthew C.; Lötters, Stefan

    2009-01-01

    Species are being lost at increasing rates due to anthropogenic effects, leading to the recognition that we are witnessing the onset of a sixth mass extinction. Emerging infectious disease has been shown to increase species loss and any attempts to reduce extinction rates need to squarely confront this challenge. Here, we develop a procedure for identifying amphibian species that are most at risk from the effects of chytridiomycosis by combining spatial analyses of key host life-history varia...

  3. Melodie: A global risk assessment model for radioactive waste repositories

    Lewi, J.; Assouline, M.; Bareau, J.; Raimbault, P.

    1987-03-01

    The Institute of Protection and Nuclear Safety (IPSN), which is part of the French Atomic Energy Commission (C.E.A.) develops since 1984 in collaboration with different groups inside and outside the C.E.A. a computer model for risk assessment of nuclear waste repositories in deep geological formations. The main characteristics of the submodels, the data processing structure and some examples of applications are presented

  4. Comparative evaluation of CVD diamond technologies

    Anthony, T.R. [General Electric Corporate Research & Development Center, Schenectady, NY (United States)

    1993-01-01

    Chemical vapor deposition (CVD) of diamonds occurs from hydrogen-hydrocarbon gas mixtures in the presence of atomic hydrogen at subatmospheric pressures. Most CVD methods are based on different means of generating and transporting atomic hydrogen in a particular system. Evaluation of these different techniques involves their capital costs, material costs, energy costs, labor costs and the type and quality of diamond that they produce. Currently, there is no universal agreement on which is the best technique and technique selection has been largely driven by the professional background of the user as well as the particular application of interest. This article discusses the criteria for evaluating a process for low-pressure deposition of diamond. Next, a brief history of low-pressure diamond synthesis is reviewed. Several specific processes are addressed, including the hot filament process, hot filament electron-assisted chemical vapor deposition, and plasma generation of atomic hydrogen by glow discharge, microwave discharge, low pressure radio frequency discharge, high pressure DC discharge, high pressure microwave discharge jets, high pressure RF discharge, and high and low pressure flames. Other types of diamond deposition methods are also evaluated. 101 refs., 15 figs.

  5. Development of CVD diamond radiation detectors

    Adam, W; Berdermann, E; Bogani, F; Borchi, E; Bruzzi, Mara; Colledani, C; Conway, J; Dabrowski, W; Delpierre, P A; Deneuville, A; Dulinski, W; van Eijk, B; Fallou, A; Fisch, D; Foulon, F; Friedl, M; Gan, K K; Gheeraert, E; Grigoriev, E A; Hallewell, G D; Hall-Wilton, R; Han, S; Hartjes, F G; Hrubec, Josef; Husson, D; Kagan, H; Kania, D R; Kaplon, J; Kass, R; Knöpfle, K T; Krammer, Manfred; Manfredi, P F; Meier, D; Mishina, M; Le Normand, F; Pan, L S; Pernegger, H; Pernicka, Manfred; Pirollo, S; Re, V; Riester, J L; Roe, S; Roff, D G; Rudge, A; Schnetzer, S R; Sciortino, S; Speziali, V; Stelzer, H; Stone, R; Tapper, R J; Tesarek, R J; Thomson, G B; Trawick, M L; Trischuk, W; Turchetta, R; Walsh, A M; Wedenig, R; Weilhammer, Peter; Ziock, H J; Zoeller, M M

    1998-01-01

    Diamond is a nearly ideal material for detecting ionizing radiation. Its outstanding radiation hardness, fast charge collection and low leakage current allow a diamond detector to be used in high ra diation, high temperature and in aggressive chemical media. We have constructed charged particle detectors using high quality CVD diamond. Characterization of the diamond samples and various detect ors are presented in terms of collection distance, $d=\\mu E \\tau$, the average distance electron-hole pairs move apart under the influence of an electric field, where $\\mu$ is the sum of carrier mo bilities, $E$ is the applied electric field, and $\\tau$ is the mobility weighted carrier lifetime. Over the last two years the collection distance increased from $\\sim$ 75 $\\mu$m to over 200 $\\mu$ m. With this high quality CVD diamond a series of micro-strip and pixel particle detectors have been constructed. These devices were tested to determine their position resolution and signal to n oise performance. Diamond detectors w...

  6. TSC response of irradiated CVD diamond films

    Borchi, E; Bucciolini, M; Guasti, A; Mazzocchi, S; Pirollo, S; Sciortino, S

    1999-01-01

    CVD diamond films have been irradiated with electrons, sup 6 sup 0 Co photons and protons in order to study the dose response to exposure to different particles and energies and to investigate linearity with dose. The Thermally Stimulated Current (TSC) has been studied as a function of the dose delivered to polymethilmetacrilate (PMMA) in the range from 1 to 12 Gy with 20 MeV electrons from a linear accelerator. The TSC spectrum has revealed the presence of two components with peak temperatures of about 470 and 520 K, corresponding to levels lying in the diamond band gap with activation energies of the order of 0.7 - 1 eV. After the subtraction of the exponential background the charge emitted during the heating scan has been evaluated and has been found to depend linearly on the dose. The thermally emitted charge of the CVD diamond films has also been studied using different particles. The samples have been irradiated with the same PMMA dose of about 2 Gy with 6 and 20 MeV electrons from a Linac, sup 6 sup 0 ...

  7. High collection efficiency CVD diamond alpha detectors

    Bergonzo, P.; Foulon, F.; Marshall, R.D.; Jany, C.; Brambilla, A.; McKeag, R.D.; Jackman, R.B.

    1998-01-01

    Advances in Chemical Vapor Deposited (CVD) diamond have enabled the routine use of this material for sensor device fabrication, allowing exploitation of its unique combination of physical properties (low temperature susceptibility (> 500 C), high resistance to radiation damage (> 100 Mrad) and to corrosive media). A consequence of CVD diamond growth on silicon is the formation of polycrystalline films which has a profound influence on the physical and electronic properties with respect to those measured on monocrystalline diamond. The authors report the optimization of physical and geometrical device parameters for radiation detection in the counting mode. Sandwich and co-planar electrode geometries are tested and their performances evaluated with regard to the nature of the field profile and drift distances inherent in such devices. The carrier drift length before trapping was measured under alpha particles and values as high as 40% of the overall film thickness are reported. Further, by optimizing the device geometry, they show that a gain in collection efficiency, defined as the induced charge divided by the deposited charge within the material, can be achieved even though lower bias values are used

  8. Cyber Terrorism demands a Global Risks and Threats Strategic Management

    Gareva, R.

    2007-01-01

    The world is in the third wave of development, which is digital managed and networked. Information, which creates the knowledge is transferring thorough the Internet by exponential function. The rapid advancement of the computer technology has a great influence over the development of the critical information infrastructure, thus changing the safety environment and the national values and interests. This advancement produces threats and risks from computer perspective which are sublimated in different forms of international terrorism and particularly in cyber terrorism. The main aim of this paper is based on a thorough analysis of what is scientifically known and practiced when nowadays critical information infrastructure is in the focus of the cyber terrorism. The rapid IT development demands changes in the strategic management focus. As a result of a time-consuming theoretical and empirical research this paper suggests a methodology for strategic managing of: threats, risks and vulnerabilities. The proposed methodology is seen as a mean to increase the human security conscious in every sense of the word, and to promote the need for rules, procedures and standards establishment from the aspect of the strategic management in the new information epoch concerning. In addition, through a scientific discourse, a short attempt is made to relate Macedonian reality with the phenomenon mentioned above. The most fundamental set phrase is that the efficiency and promptly made decisions during strategic planning are a projection of the systematic organization of functions and models for managing the risks and threats of the critical information infrastructure. Hence, this paper could be seen as a perspective when taking in consideration the regional strategic management, and the cyber space vital functioning. (author)

  9. RISK MANAGEMENT IN LENDING INSTITUTIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION

    BOGHEAN FLORIN

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The Romanian companies are nowadays facing process of extinction of decisions based on risk and uncertainty, as a consequence of the permanent transforming process of the economy and because of the privatization, restructuring and globalization activities. The main forms of risk are can be grouped in eight categories: economical risks, financial risks, commercial risks, manufacturing risks, political risks, social risks, juridical risks, natural risks. Through its nature the decision is referring to the future, mainly being provisional. In any decisional process developed at the company level, there are involved in the same time some economical, techniques, juridical, human and managerial variables. The economic recession generated by the chaos affecting financial systems has profoundly distressed the public, business circles and political leaders. The crisis has inexorably had negative effects on global economic growth and will have political, strategic and social consequences as well. The contents of this paper encompasses theoretical and practical aspects, quantitative and qualitative analyses, all aimed at identifying, analysing and controlling bank risks and, last but not least, at managing these risks.

  10. A CVD diamond beam telescope for charged particle tracking

    Adam, W; Bergonzo, P; de Boer, Wim; Bogani, F; Borchi, E; Brambilla, A; Bruzzi, Mara; Colledani, C; Conway, J; D'Angelo, P; Dabrowski, W; Delpierre, P A; Dulinski, W; Doroshenko, J; Doucet, M; van Eijk, B; Fallou, A; Fischer, P; Fizzotti, F; Kania, D R; Gan, K K; Grigoriev, E; Hallewell, G D; Han, S; Hartjes, F G; Hrubec, Josef; Husson, D; Kagan, H; Kaplon, J; Kass, R; Keil, M; Knöpfle, K T; Koeth, T W; Krammer, Manfred; Meuser, S; Lo Giudice, A; MacLynne, L; Manfredotti, C; Meier, D; Menichelli, D; Mishina, M; Moroni, L; Noomen, J; Oh, A; Pan, L S; Pernicka, Manfred; Perera, L P; Riester, J L; Roe, S; Rudge, A; Russ, J; Sala, S; Sampietro, M; Schnetzer, S; Sciortino, S; Stelzer, H; Stone, R; Suter, B; Trischuk, W; Tromson, D; Vittone, E; Weilhammer, Peter; Wermes, N; Wetstein, M; Zeuner, W; Zöller, M

    2002-01-01

    CVD diamond is a radiation hard sensor material which may be used for charged particle tracking near the interaction region in experiments at high luminosity colliders. The goal of the work described here is to investigate the use of several detector planes made of CVD diamond strip sensors for charged particle tracking. Towards this end a tracking telescope composed entirely of CVD diamond planes has been constructed. The telescope was tested in muon beams and its tracking capability has been investigated.

  11. Experiment and equipment of depositing diamond films with CVD system

    Xie Erqing; Song Chang'an

    2002-01-01

    CVD (chemical vapor deposition) emerged in recent years is a new technique for thin film deposition, which play a key role in development of modern physics. It is important to predominate the principle and technology of CVD for studying modern physics. In this paper, a suit of CVD experimental equipment for teaching in college physics is presented, which has simple design and low cost. The good result was gained in past teaching practices

  12. Modeling and Managing the Risks of Measles and Rubella: A Global Perspective, Part I.

    Thompson, Kimberly M; Cochi, Stephen L

    2016-07-01

    Over the past 50 years, the use of vaccines led to significant decreases in the global burdens of measles and rubella, motivated at least in part by the successive development of global control and elimination targets. The Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) includes specific targets for regional elimination of measles and rubella in five of six regions of the World Health Organization by 2020. Achieving the GVAP measles and rubella goals will require significant immunization efforts and associated financial investments and political commitments. Planning and budgeting for these efforts can benefit from learning some important lessons from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI). Following an overview of the global context of measles and rubella risks and discussion of lessons learned from the GPEI, we introduce the contents of the special issue on modeling and managing the risks of measles and rubella. This introduction describes the synthesis of the literature available to support evidence-based model inputs to support the development of an integrated economic and dynamic disease transmission model to support global efforts to optimally manage these diseases globally using vaccines. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Global timber investments, wood costs, regulation, and risk

    Cubbage, Frederick; Koesbandana, Sadharga; Gonzalez, Ronalds; Carrero, Omar; MacIntyre, Charles; Abt, Robert; Phillips, Richard; Mac Donagh, Patricio; Rubilar, Rafael; Balmelli, Gustavo; Olmos, Virginia Morales; De La Torre, Rafael; Murara, Mauro; Hoeflich, Vitor Afonso; Kotze, Heynz; Frey, Gregory; Adams, Thomas; Turner, James; Lord, Roger; Huang, Jin; McGinley, Kathleen

    2010-01-01

    We estimated financial returns and wood production costs in 2008 for the primary timber plantation species. Excluding land costs, returns for exotic plantations in almost all of South America - Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Colombia, Venezuela, and Paraguay - were substantial. Eucalyptus species returns were generally greater than those for Pinus species in each country, with most having Internal Rates of Return (IRRs) of 20% per year or more, as did teak. Pinus species in South America were generally closer to 15%, except in Argentina, where they were 20%. IRRs were less, but still attractive for plantations of coniferous or deciduous species in China, South Africa, New Zealand, Indonesia, and the United States, ranging from 7% to 12%. Costs of wood production at the cost of capital of 8% per year were generally cheapest for countries with high rates of return and for pulpwood fiber production, which would favor vertically integrated firms in Latin America. But wood costs at stumpage market prices were much greater, making net wood costs for open market wood more similar among countries. In the Americas, Chile and Brazil had the most regulatory components of sustainable forest management, followed by Misiones, Argentina and Oregon in the U.S. New Zealand, the United States, and Chile had the best rankings regarding risk from political, commercial, war, or government actions and for the ease of doing business. Conversely, Venezuela, Indonesia, Colombia, and Argentina had high risk ratings, and Brazil, Indonesia, and Venezuela were ranked as more difficult countries for ease of business. (author)

  14. Global timber investments, wood costs, regulation, and risk

    Cubbage, Frederick; Koesbandana, Sadharga; Gonzalez, Ronalds; Carrero, Omar; MacIntyre, Charles; Abt, Robert; Phillips, Richard [Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC (United States); Mac Donagh, Patricio [Universidad Nacional de Misiones (UNAM), Lisandro de la Torre s/n, CP 3380, Eldorado, Misiones (Argentina); Rubilar, Rafael [Universidad de Concepcion, Victoria 631, Casilla 160-C - Correo 3, Concepcion (Chile); Balmelli, Gustavo [Instituto Nacional de Investigacion Agropecuria, INIA Tacuarembo, Ruta 5, Km 386, Tacuarembo (Uruguay); Olmos, Virginia Morales [Weyerhaeuser Company, La Rosa 765, Melo (Uruguay); De La Torre, Rafael [CellFor, 247 Davis Street, Athens, GA (United States); Murara, Mauro [Universidade do Contestado, R. Joaquim Nabuco, 314 Bairro Cidade Nova, Porto Uniao, Santa Catarina (Brazil); Hoeflich, Vitor Afonso [Universidade Federal do Parana, Av. Pref. Lothario Meissner, 900, 80210-170, Jardim Botanico, Curitiba, Parana (Brazil); Kotze, Heynz [Komatiland Forests (Pty) Ltd, P.O. Box 14228, Nelspruit (South Africa); Frey, Gregory [World Bank, 1818 H. Street NW, Washington, DC (United States); Adams, Thomas; Turner, James [New Zealand Forest Research Institute Ltd., Scion, 49 Sala St., Rotorua (New Zealand); Lord, Roger [Mason, Bruce, and Girard, Inc., 707 SW Washington St., Portland, Oregon (United States); Huang, Jin [Abt Associates, 4550 Montgomery Avenue, Bethesda, MD (United States); McGinley, Kathleen [International Institute of Tropical Forestry, USDA Forest Service, c/o 920 Main Campus Dr. Suite 300, Raleigh, NC (United States)

    2010-12-15

    We estimated financial returns and wood production costs in 2008 for the primary timber plantation species. Excluding land costs, returns for exotic plantations in almost all of South America - Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Colombia, Venezuela, and Paraguay - were substantial. Eucalyptus species returns were generally greater than those for Pinus species in each country, with most having Internal Rates of Return (IRRs) of 20% per year or more, as did teak. Pinus species in South America were generally closer to 15%, except in Argentina, where they were 20%. IRRs were less, but still attractive for plantations of coniferous or deciduous species in China, South Africa, New Zealand, Indonesia, and the United States, ranging from 7% to 12%. Costs of wood production at the cost of capital of 8% per year were generally cheapest for countries with high rates of return and for pulpwood fiber production, which would favor vertically integrated firms in Latin America. But wood costs at stumpage market prices were much greater, making net wood costs for open market wood more similar among countries. In the Americas, Chile and Brazil had the most regulatory components of sustainable forest management, followed by Misiones, Argentina and Oregon in the U.S. New Zealand, the United States, and Chile had the best rankings regarding risk from political, commercial, war, or government actions and for the ease of doing business. Conversely, Venezuela, Indonesia, Colombia, and Argentina had high risk ratings, and Brazil, Indonesia, and Venezuela were ranked as more difficult countries for ease of business. (author)

  15. Growing pains: How risk perception and risk communication research can help to manage the challenges of global population growth.

    Dawson, Ian G J; Johnson, Johnnie E V

    2014-08-01

    In 2011, the global human population reached 7 billion and medium variant projections indicate that it will exceed 9 billion before 2045. Theoretical and empirical perspectives suggest that this growth could lead to an increase in the likelihood of adverse events (e.g., food shortages, climate change, etc.) and/or the severity of adverse events (e.g., famines, natural disasters, etc.). Several scholars have posited that the size to which the global population grows and the extent to which this growth increases the likelihood of adverse outcomes will largely be shaped by individuals' decisions (in households, organizations, governments, etc.). In light of the strong relationship between perceived risk and decision behaviors, it is surprising that there remains a dearth of empirical research that specifically examines the perceived risks of population growth and how these perceptions might influence related decisions. In an attempt to motivate this important strand of research, this article examines the major risks that may be exacerbated by global population growth and draws upon empirical work concerning the perception and communication of risk to identify potential directions for future research. The article also considers how individuals might perceive both the risks and benefits of population growth and be helped to better understand and address the related issues. The answers to these questions could help humanity better manage the emerging consequences of its continuing success in increasing infant survival and adult longevity. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Global Burden of Neural Tube Defects, Risk Factors, and Prevention

    Joseph E

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Neural tube defects (NTDs, serious birth defects of the brain and spine usually resulting in death or paralysis, affect an estimated 300,000 births each year worldwide. Although the majority of NTDs are preventable with adequate folic acid consumption during the preconception period and throughout the first few weeks of gestation, many populations, in particular those in low and middle resource settings, do not have access to fortified foods or vitamin supplements containing folic acid. Further, accurate birth defects surveillance data, which could help inform mandatory fortification and other NTD prevention initiatives, are lacking in many of these settings. The burden of birth defects in South East Asia is among the highest in the world. Expanding global neural tube defects prevention initiatives can support the achievement of the United Nations Millennium Development Goal 4 to reduce child mortality, a goal which many countries in South East Asia are currently not poised to reach, and the 63rd World Health Assembly Resolution on birth defects. More work is needed to develop and implement mandatory folic acid fortification policies, as well as supplementation programs in countries where the reach of fortification is limited.

  17. Globalization

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  18. Globalization

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  19. Global warming risk in Russia: National actions and some options for international cooperation

    Sokolov, V.I.

    1995-01-01

    In the management of global environmental risks the Russia case is a special one regarding certain specific features which determine the position of the country, particularly in a new international community emerged on the territory of the former Soviet Union, large scientific interest to the global physical processes and low interest and capabilities to deal with such risks on the part of social institutions inherited from the USSR. The largest country in the world with visible geopolitical role and probably biggest regional differences could not be ignored as a one of major players in the management of global environmental risks. The understanding of all deficiencies and positive sides of global risks management process in this country are absolutely important for extrapolating the appropriate trends in some other parts of the world. At the same time the ex-Soviet Union case shows clearly how the social learning process can radically ''change the course'', diverting to the opposite direction the social goals and preferences. Starting the studies on possibilities to change the climate for improving the human being, the former soviet society perceived the risks of human impact on climate and started to regulate it and to participate in the process of international management of global warming. The level of activity in this process on the part of Russia will however depend heavily on how much national interests will be reflected in the specific prevention measures realized by the international community

  20. New developments in CVD diamond for detector applications

    Adam, W.; Berdermann, E.; Bergonzo, P.; de Boer, W.; Bogani, F.; Borchi, E.; Brambilla, A.; Bruzzi, M.; Colledani, C.; Conway, J.; D'Angelo, P.; Dabrowski, W.; Delpierre, P.; Dulinski, W.; Doroshenko, J.; van Eijk, B.; Fallou, A.; Fischer, P.; Fizzotti, F.; Furetta, C.; Gan, K. K.; Ghodbane, N.; Grigoriev, E.; Hallewell, G.; Han, S.; Hartjes, F.; Hrubec, J.; Husson, D.; Kagan, H.; Kaplon, J.; Kass, R.; Keil, M.; Knoepfle, K. T.; Koeth, T.; Krammer, M.; Logiudice, A.; Lu, R.; Mac Lynne, L.; Manfredotti, C.; Meier, D.; Menichelli, D.; Meuser, S.; Mishina, M.; Moroni, L.; Noomen, J.; Oh, A.; Pernicka, M.; Perera, L.; Potenza, R.; Riester, J. L.; Roe, S.; Rudge, A.; Sala, S.; Sampietro, M.; Schnetzer, S.; Sciortino, S.; Stelzer, H.; Stone, R.; Sutera, C.; Trischuk, W.; Tromson, D.; Tuve, C.; Vincenzo, B.; Weilhammer, P.; Wermes, N.; Wetstein, M.; Zeuner, W.; Zoeller, M.

    Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) diamond has been discussed extensively as an alternative sensor material for use very close to the interaction region of the LHC and other machines where extreme radiation conditions exist. During the last seven years the RD42 collaboration has developed diamond detectors and tested them with LHC electronics towards the end of creating a device usable by experiments. The most recent results of this work are presented. Recently, a new form of CVD diamond has been developed: single crystal CVD diamond which resolves many of the issues associated with poly-crystalline CVD material. The first tests of this material are also presented.

  1. New developments in CVD diamond for detector applications

    Adam, W. [HEPHY, Vienna (Austria); Berdermann, E. [GSI, Darmstadt (Germany); Bergonzo, P.; Brambilla, A. [LETI/DEIN/SPE/CEA Saclay (France); Boer, W. de [Universitaet Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe (Germany); Bogani, F. [LENS, Florence (Italy); Borchi, E.; Bruzzi, M. [University of Florence (Italy); Colledani, C.; Dulinski, W. [LEPSI, IN2P3/CNRS-ULP, Strasbourg (France); Conway, J.; Doroshenko, J. [Rutgers University, Piscataway (United States); D' Angelo, P.; Furetta, C. [INFN, Milano (Italy); Dabrowski, W. [UMM, Cracow (Poland); Delpierre, P.; Fallou, A. [CPPM, Marseille (France); Eijk, B. van [NIKHEF, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Fischer, P. [Universitaet Bonn, Bonn (Germany); Fizzotti, F. [University of Torino (Italy); Gan, K.K.; Ghodbane, N.; Grigoriev, E.; Hallewell, G.; Han, S.; Hartjes, F.; Hrubec, J.; Husson, D.; Kagan, H.; Kaplon, J.; Kass, R.; Keil, M.; Knoepfle, K.T.; Koeth, T.; Krammer, M.; Logiudice, A.; Lu, R.; Mac Lynne, L.; Manfredotti, C.; Meier, D.; Menichelli, D.; Meuser, S.; Mishina, M.; Moroni, L.; Noomen, J.; Oh, A.; Pernicka, M.; Perera, L.; Potenza, R.; Riester, J.L.; Roe, S.; Rudge, A.; Sala, S.; Sampietro, M.; Schnetzer, S.; Sciortino, S.; Stelzer, H.; Stone, R.; Sutera, C.; Trischuk, W.; Tromson, D.; Tuve, C.; Vincenzo, B.; Weilhammer, P.; Wermes, N.; Wetstein, M.; Zeuner, W.; Zoeller, M.

    2004-07-01

    Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) diamond has been discussed extensively as an alternative sensor material for use very close to the interaction region of the LHC and other machines where extreme radiation conditions exist. During the last seven years the RD42 collaboration has developed diamond detectors and tested them with LHC electronics towards the end of creating a device usable by experiments. The most recent results of this work are presented. Recently, a new form of CVD diamond has been developed: single crystal CVD diamond which resolves many of the issues associated with poly-crystalline CVD material. The first tests of this material are also presented. (orig.)

  2. New developments in CVD diamond for detector applications

    Adam, W.; Berdermann, E.; Bergonzo, P.; Brambilla, A.; Boer, W. de; Bogani, F.; Borchi, E.; Bruzzi, M.; Colledani, C.; Dulinski, W.; Conway, J.; Doroshenko, J.; D'Angelo, P.; Furetta, C.; Dabrowski, W.; Delpierre, P.; Fallou, A.; Eijk, B. van; Fischer, P.; Fizzotti, F.; Gan, K.K.; Ghodbane, N.; Grigoriev, E.; Hallewell, G.; Han, S.; Hartjes, F.; Hrubec, J.; Husson, D.; Kagan, H.; Kaplon, J.; Kass, R.; Keil, M.; Knoepfle, K.T.; Koeth, T.; Krammer, M.; Logiudice, A.; Lu, R.; Mac Lynne, L.; Manfredotti, C.; Meier, D.; Menichelli, D.; Meuser, S.; Mishina, M.; Moroni, L.; Noomen, J.; Oh, A.; Pernicka, M.; Perera, L.; Potenza, R.; Riester, J.L.; Roe, S.; Rudge, A.; Sala, S.; Sampietro, M.; Schnetzer, S.; Sciortino, S.; Stelzer, H.; Stone, R.; Sutera, C.; Trischuk, W.; Tromson, D.; Tuve, C.; Vincenzo, B.; Weilhammer, P.; Wermes, N.; Wetstein, M.; Zeuner, W.; Zoeller, M.

    2004-01-01

    Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) diamond has been discussed extensively as an alternative sensor material for use very close to the interaction region of the LHC and other machines where extreme radiation conditions exist. During the last seven years the RD42 collaboration has developed diamond detectors and tested them with LHC electronics towards the end of creating a device usable by experiments. The most recent results of this work are presented. Recently, a new form of CVD diamond has been developed: single crystal CVD diamond which resolves many of the issues associated with poly-crystalline CVD material. The first tests of this material are also presented. (orig.)

  3. Application of CVD diamond film for radiation detection

    Zhou Haiyang; Zhu Xiaodong; Zhan Rujuan

    2005-01-01

    With the development of diamond synthesis at low pressure, the CVD diamond properties including electronic characteristics have improved continuously. Now the fabrication of electronic devices based on the CVD diamond has been one of hot research subjects in this field. Due to many unique advantages, such as high signal-noise ratio, fast time response, and normal output in extremely harsh surrounding, the CVD diamond radiation detector has attracted more and more interest. In this paper, we have reviewed the development and status of the CVD diamond radiation detector. The prospect of this detector is described. (authors)

  4. Heart disease - risk factors

    Heart disease - prevention; CVD - risk factors; Cardiovascular disease - risk factors; Coronary artery disease - risk factors; CAD - risk ... a certain health condition. Some risk factors for heart disease you cannot change, but some you can. ...

  5. The Role of Built Environments in Physical Activity, Obesity, and CVD

    Sallis, James F.; Floyd, Myron F.; Rodríguez, Daniel A.; Saelens, Brian E.

    2012-01-01

    In industrialized nations like the United States and Sweden, the vast majority of adults do not meet the physical activity guidelines of 150 minutes per week.1 Inactive lifestyles put most adults at risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), diabetes, obesity, some cancers, osteoporosis, and psychological disorders.2 Physical activity can be effective at all phases of chronic disease management, from primordial prevention (prevention of risk factors) through treatment and rehabilitation.2 There i...

  6. Multi-hazard national-level risk assessment in Africa using global approaches

    Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Murnane, Richard

    2016-04-01

    In recent years Sub-Saharan Africa has been characterized by unprecedented opportunity for transformation and sustained growth. However, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and extreme temperatures cause significant economic and human losses, and major development challenges. Quantitative disaster risk assessments are an important basis for governments to understand disaster risk in their country, and to develop effective risk management and risk financing solutions. However, the data-scarce nature of many Sub-Saharan African countries as well as a lack of financing for risk assessments has long prevented detailed analytics. Recent advances in globally applicable disaster risk modelling practices and data availability offer new opportunities. In December 2013 the European Union approved a € 60 million contribution to support the development of an analytical basis for risk financing and to accelerate the effective implementation of a comprehensive disaster risk reduction. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) was selected as the implementing partner of the Program for Result Area 5: the "Africa Disaster Risk Assessment and Financing Program." As part of this effort, the GFDRR is overseeing the production of national-level multi-hazard risk profiles for a range of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, using a combination of national and global datasets and state-of-the-art hazard and risk assessment methodologies. In this presentation, we will highlight the analytical approach behind these assessments, and show results for the first five countries for which the assessment has been completed (Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Niger and Ethiopia). The presentation will also demonstrate the visualization of the risk assessments into understandable and visually attractive risk profile documents.

  7. Russian spent marine fuel as a global security risk

    Gussgard, K.; Reistad, O.

    2001-01-01

    Russian marine fuel is a trans-national security concern. This paper focuses on specific technical properties of Russian marine nuclear fuel especially relevant for evaluating different aspects on nuclear proliferation, in addition to risks associated with regional environmental degradation and illegal diversion of radiological substances. Russian fresh fuel for marine reactors has been involved in several significant cases of illicit trafficking of special nuclear materials. The amount and quality of nuclear materials in Russian spent marine fuel give also reason for concern. Not less than 200 marine reactor cores are ready for having their spent fuel unloaded and preliminary stored on shore in the Far East and North West of Russia, and large amounts of spent naval fuel have been stored at Russian military bases for decades. In order to assess the security risks associated with Russian spent marine fuel, this paper discusses the material attractiveness of spent fuel from all types of Russian marine reactors. The calculations are based on a model of a light water moderated Russian icebreaker reactor. The computer tool HELIOS, used for modelling the reactor and the reactor operations, has been extensively qualified by comparisons with experimental data and international benchmark problems for reactor physics codes as well as through feedback from applications. Some of these benchmarks and studies include fuel enrichments up to 90% in Russian marine reactors. Several fuel data cases are discussed in the paper, focusing especially on: 1) early fuel designs with low initial enrichment; 2) more modern fuel designs used in third and fourth generation of Russian submarines probably with intermediate enriched fuel; and 3) marine fuel with initial enrichment levels close to weapons-grade material. In each case the fuel has been burned until k eff has reached below 1. Case 1) has been evaluated, the calculations made as basis for this paper have concentrated on fuel with

  8. What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Winsemius, Hessel

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, several global scale flood risk models have become available. Within the scientific community these have been, and are being, used to assess and map the current levels of risk faced by countries and societies. Increasingly, they are also being used to assess how that level of risk may change in the future, under scenarios of climate change and/or socioeconomic development. More and more, these 'quick and not so dirty' methods are also being used in practice, for a large range of uses and applications, and by an increasing range of practitioners and decision makers. For example, assessments can be used by: International Financing Institutes for prioritising investments in the most promising natural disaster risk reduction measures and strategies; intra-national institutes in the monitoring of progress on risk reduction activities; the (re-)insurance industry in assessing their risk portfolios and potential changes in those portfolios under climate change; by multinational companies in assessing risks to their regional investments and supply chains; and by international aid organisations for improved resource planning. However, global scale flood risk models clearly have their limits, and therefore both modellers and users need to critically address the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. This contribution is intended to start a dialogue between model developers, users, and decision makers to better answer this question. We will provide a number of examples of how the GLOFRIS global flood risk model has recently been used in several practical applications, and share both the positive and negative insights gained through these experiences. We wish to discuss similar experiences with other groups of modelers, users, and decision-makers, in order to better understand and harness the potential of this new generation of models, understand the differences in model approaches followed and their impacts on applicability, and develop

  9. Global sourcing risk management approaches: A study of small clothing and textile retailers in Gauteng

    Wesley Niemann

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Global sourcing has increased as buyers searched for new markets that offered better pricing, quality, variety and delivery lead times than their local markets. However, the increase in global sourcing has also exposed businesses to many supply risks. Purpose: The purpose of this descriptive qualitative study was to explore the global sourcing supply risks encountered by small clothing and textile retailers in Gauteng and to determine what supply risk identification and management approaches they utilise. Method: This study utilised semi-structured interviews conducted with 12 small clothing and textile retail owners. Results: The study found that the three major supply risks encountered by these retailers were fluctuating exchange rates, communication barriers and costly and complicated logistics, which included high customs costs. Furthermore, although aware of the supply risks, none of the small clothing and textile retailers had formal identification and management approaches in place. Instead, risks are dealt with at the sole discretion of the owner as and when they occur. The study also found that informal identification and management approaches were being applied by some of the retailers. These included factoring exchange rate fluctuations into the profit margins and using translators to combat communication barriers. Contribution: The study is one of the first empirical studies conducted on global supply risks and the associated identification and management approaches in the South African small business context, specifically focused on clothing and textile retailers. Conclusion: Small clothing and textile retailers need to proactively identify and manage global sourcing risk using the identified approaches in order to reduce and mitigate potential supply disruptions.

  10. CVD diamond detectors for ionizing radiation

    Friedl, M; Bauer, C; Berfermann, E; Bergonzo, P; Bogani, F; Borchi, E; Brambilla, A; Bruzzi, Mara; Colledani, C; Conway, J; Dabrowski, W; Delpierre, P A; Deneuville, A; Dulinski, W; van Eijk, B; Fallou, A; Fizzotti, F; Foulon, F; Gan, K K; Gheeraert, E; Grigoriev, E; Hallewell, G D; Hall-Wilton, R; Han, S; Hartjes, F G; Hrubec, Josef; Husson, D; Kagan, H; Kania, D R; Kaplon, J; Karl, C; Kass, R; Knöpfle, K T; Krammer, Manfred; Lo Giudice, A; Lü, R; Manfredi, P F; Manfredotti, C; Marshall, R D; Meier, D; Mishina, M; Oh, A; Pan, L S; Palmieri, V G; Pernegger, H; Pernicka, Manfred; Peitz, A; Pirollo, S; Polesello, P; Pretzl, Klaus P; Re, V; Riester, J L; Roe, S; Roff, D G; Rudge, A; Schnetzer, S R; Sciortino, S; Speziali, V; Stelzer, H; Stone, R; Tapper, R J; Tesarek, R J; Thomson, G B; Trawick, M L; Trischuk, W; Vittone, E; Walsh, A M; Wedenig, R; Weilhammer, Peter; Ziock, H J; Zöller, M

    1999-01-01

    In future HEP accelerators, such as the LHC (CERN), detectors and electronics in the vertex region of the experiments will suffer from extreme radiation. Thus radiation hardness is required for both detectors and electronics to survive in this harsh environment. CVD diamond, which is investigated by the RD42 Collaboration at CERN, can meet these requirements. Samples of up to 2*4 cm/sup 2/ have been grown and refined for better charge collection properties, which are measured with a beta source or in a test beam. A large number of diamond samples has been irradiated with hadrons to fluences of up to 5*10/sup 15/ cm/sup -2/ to study the effects of radiation. Both strip and pixel detectors were prepared in various geometries. Samples with strip metallization have been tested with both slow and fast readout electronics, and the first diamond pixel detector proved fully functional with LHC electronics. (16 refs).

  11. CVD diamond sensors for charged particle detection

    Krammer, Manfred; Berdermann, E; Bergonzo, P; Bertuccio, G; Bogani, F; Borchi, E; Brambilla, A; Bruzzi, Mara; Colledani, C; Conway, J; D'Angelo, P; Dabrowski, W; Delpierre, P A; Dencuville, A; Dulinski, W; van Eijk, B; Fallou, A; Fizzotti, F; Foulon, F; Friedl, M; Gan, K K; Gheeraert, E; Hallewell, G D; Han, S; Hartjes, F G; Hrubec, Josef; Husson, D; Kagan, H; Kania, D R; Kaplon, J; Kass, R; Koeth, T W; Lo Giudice, A; Lü, R; MacLynne, L; Manfredotti, C; Meier, D; Mishina, M; Moroni, L; Oh, A; Pan, L S; Pernicka, Manfred; Peitz, A; Perera, L P; Pirollo, S; Procario, M; Riester, J L; Roe, S; Rousseau, L; Rudge, A; Russ, J; Sala, S; Sampietro, M; Schnetzer, S; Sciortino, S; Stelzer, H; Stone, R; Suter, B; Tapper, R J; Tesarek, R; Trischuk, W; Tromson, D; Vittone, E; Walsh, A M; Wedenig, R; Weilhammer, Peter; Wetstein, M; White, C; Zeuner, W; Zöller, M

    2001-01-01

    CVD diamond material was used to build position-sensitive detectors for single-charged particles to be employed in high-intensity physics experiments. To obtain position information, metal contacts shaped as strips or pixels are applied to the detector surface for one- or two- dimensional coordinate measurement. Strip detectors 2*4 cm/sup 2/ in size with a strip distance of 50 mu m were tested. Pixel detectors of various pixel sizes were bump bonded to electronics chips and investigated. A key issue for the use of these sensors in high intensity experiments is the radiation hardness. Several irradiation experiments were carried out with pions, protons and neutrons exceeding a fluence of 10/sup 15/ particles/cm/sup 2/. The paper presents an overview of the results obtained with strip and pixel detectors in high-energy test beams and summarises the irradiation studies. (8 refs).

  12. CVD diamond detectors for ionizing radiation

    Friedl, M. E-mail: markus.friedl@cern.ch; Adam, W.; Bauer, C.; Berdermann, E.; Bergonzo, P.; Bogani, F.; Borchi, E.; Brambilla, A.; Bruzzi, M.; Colledani, C.; Conway, J.; Dabrowski, W.; Delpierre, P.; Deneuville, A.; Dulinski, W.; Eijk, B. van; Fallou, A.; Fizzotti, F.; Foulon, F.; Gan, K.K.; Gheeraert, E.; Grigoriev, E.; Hallewell, G.; Hall-Wilton, R.; Han, S.; Hartjes, F.; Hrubec, J.; Husson, D.; Kagan, H.; Kania, D.; Kaplon, J.; Karl, C.; Kass, R.; Knoepfle, K.T.; Krammer, M.; Logiudice, A.; Lu, R.; Manfredi, P.F.; Manfredotti, C.; Marshall, R.D.; Meier, D.; Mishina, M.; Oh, A.; Pan, L.S.; Palmieri, V.G.; Pernegger, H.; Pernicka, M.; Peitz, A.; Pirollo, S.; Polesello, P.; Pretzl, K.; Re, V.; Riester, J.L.; Roe, S.; Roff, D.; Rudge, A.; Schnetzer, S.; Sciortino, S.; Speziali, V.; Stelzer, H.; Stone, R.; Tapper, R.J.; Tesarek, R.; Thomson, G.B.; Trawick, M.; Trischuk, W.; Vittone, E.; Walsh, A.M.; Wedenig, R.; Weilhammer, P.; Ziock, H.; Zoeller, M

    1999-10-01

    In future HEP accelerators, such as the LHC (CERN), detectors and electronics in the vertex region of the experiments will suffer from extreme radiation. Thus radiation hardness is required for both detectors and electronics to survive in this harsh environment. CVD diamond, which is investigated by the RD42 Collaboration at CERN, can meet these requirements. Samples of up to 2x4 cm{sup 2} have been grown and refined for better charge collection properties, which are measured with a {beta} source or in a test beam. A large number of diamond samples has been irradiated with hadrons to fluences of up to 5x10{sup 15} cm{sup -2} to study the effects of radiation. Both strip and pixel detectors were prepared in various geometries. Samples with strip metallization have been tested with both slow and fast readout electronics, and the first diamond pixel detector proved fully functional with LHC electronics. (author)

  13. CVD diamond detectors for ionizing radiation

    Friedl, M.; Adam, W.; Bauer, C.; Berdermann, E.; Bergonzo, P.; Bogani, F.; Borchi, E.; Brambilla, A.; Bruzzi, M.; Colledani, C.; Conway, J.; Dabrowski, W.; Delpierre, P.; Deneuville, A.; Dulinski, W.; van Eijk, B.; Fallou, A.; Fizzotti, F.; Foulon, F.; Gan, K. K.; Gheeraert, E.; Grigoriev, E.; Hallewell, G.; Hall-Wilton, R.; Han, S.; Hartjes, F.; Hrubec, J.; Husson, D.; Kagan, H.; Kania, D.; Kaplon, J.; Karl, C.; Kass, R.; Knöpfle, K. T.; Krammer, M.; Logiudice, A.; Lu, R.; Manfredi, P. F.; Manfredotti, C.; Marshall, R. D.; Meier, D.; Mishina, M.; Oh, A.; Pan, L. S.; Palmieri, V. G.; Pernegger, H.; Pernicka, M.; Peitz, A.; Pirollo, S.; Polesello, P.; Pretzl, K.; Re, V.; Riester, J. L.; Roe, S.; Roff, D.; Rudge, A.; Schnetzer, S.; Sciortino, S.; Speziali, V.; Stelzer, H.; Stone, R.; Tapper, R. J.; Tesarek, R.; Thomson, G. B.; Trawick, M.; Trischuk, W.; Vittone, E.; Walsh, A. M.; Wedenig, R.; Weilhammer, P.; Ziock, H.; Zoeller, M.; RD42 Collaboration

    1999-10-01

    In future HEP accelerators, such as the LHC (CERN), detectors and electronics in the vertex region of the experiments will suffer from extreme radiation. Thus radiation hardness is required for both detectors and electronics to survive in this harsh environment. CVD diamond, which is investigated by the RD42 Collaboration at CERN, can meet these requirements. Samples of up to 2×4 cm2 have been grown and refined for better charge collection properties, which are measured with a β source or in a testbeam. A large number of diamond samples has been irradiated with hadrons to fluences of up to 5×10 15 cm-2 to study the effects of radiation. Both strip and pixel detectors were prepared in various geometries. Samples with strip metallization have been tested with both slow and fast readout electronics, and the first diamond pixel detector proved fully functional with LHC electronics.

  14. Going global - how to reduce the risks involved in exporting

    Mowers, J.

    1999-01-01

    Exporting oilfield expertise and technology overseas to new markets can be risky, a lesson that the company Fracmaster Ltd. learned the hard way when it lost investment in the former Soviet Union. The company's demise illustrates some of the risks inherent in conducting business in a foreign country. To be successful at this Canadian oilfield service and supply companies must not only know how to recognize opportunities but also to recognize the possible pitfalls and learn how to avoid them. Before looking at the export market, oil and gas service and supply companies should first ensure that they have not missed any opportunities at home. Canada is the second largest market in the world after the U.S. But companies should approach the American market with caution. The rule that companies should approach the U.S. first does not necessarily hold in the oil and gas industries. Mexico is another country where Canadian companies should use caution. The current hotspots in exporting are countries in the Middle East and the Latin American countries. Saudi Arabia is interested in technology and expertise. although political factors in Iran will have to improve before commitment to that market is advisable. Industry Canada has a wealth of information and services available to companies interested in exporting. There are a number of government programs to help companies finance efforts to enter the export market. Industry Canada also offers a capital projects bidding program for Canadian companies bidding on projects greater than $1 million

  15. Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity

    Ward, Philip J; Jongman, Brenden; Weiland, Frederiek Sperna; Winsemius, Hessel C; Bouwman, Arno; Ligtvoet, Willem; Van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc F P

    2013-01-01

    Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global flood risk maps, based on numerous flood return-periods. Validation results indicate that the model simulates interannual fluctuations in flood impacts well. The cascade involves: hydrological and hydraulic modelling; extreme value statistics; inundation modelling; flood impact modelling; and estimating annual expected impacts. The initial results estimate global impacts for several indicators, for example annual expected exposed population (169 million); and annual expected exposed GDP ($1383 billion). These results are relatively insensitive to the extreme value distribution employed to estimate low frequency flood volumes. However, they are extremely sensitive to the assumed flood protection standard; developing a database of such standards should be a research priority. Also, results are sensitive to the use of two different climate forcing datasets. The impact model can easily accommodate new, user-defined, impact indicators. We envisage several applications, for example: identifying risk hotspots; calculating macro-scale risk for the insurance industry and large companies; and assessing potential benefits (and costs) of adaptation measures. (letter)

  16. Globalization

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  17. Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2015-04-01

    Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

  18. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.; Afshin, Ashkan; Alexander, Lily T.; Anderson, H. Ross; Bhutta, Zulficiar A.; Biryukov, Stan; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Cercy, Kelly; Charlson, Fiona J.; Cohen, Aaron J.; Dandona, Lalit; Estep, Kara; Ferrari, Alize J.; Frostad, Joseph J.; Fullman, Nancy; Gething, Peter W.; Godwin, William W.; Griswold, Max; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kyu, Hmwe H.; Larson, Heidi J.; Liang, Xiaofeng; Lim, Stephen S.; Liu, Patrick Y.; Lopez, Alan D.; Lozano, Rafael; Marczak, Laurie; Mensah, George A.; Mokdad, Ali H.; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Naghavi, Mohsen; Neal, Bruce; Reitsma, Marissa B.; Roth, Gregory A.; Salomon, Joshua A.; Sur, Patrick J.; Vos, Theo; Wagner, Joseph A.; Wang, Haidong; Zhao, Yi; Zhou, Maigeng; Aasvang, Gunn Marit; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbafati, Cristiana; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Hoek, Hans W.; Singh, Abhishek; Tura, Abera Kenay

    2016-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform

  19. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    Forouzanfar, Mohammad Hossein; Afshin, Ashkan; Alexander, Lily T.; Ross Anderson, H.; Bhutta, Zulfiqar; Biryukov, Stan; Brauer, M.; Burnett, Richard; Cercy, Kelly; Charlson, Fiona J.; Geleijnse, J.M.

    2016-01-01

    Background
    The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform

  20. Diamond radiation detectors II. CVD diamond development for radiation detectors

    Kania, D.R.

    1997-01-01

    Interest in radiation detectors has supplied some of the impetus for improving the electronic properties of CVD diamond. In the present discussion, we will restrict our attention to polycrystalhne CVD material. We will focus on the evolution of these materials over the past decade and the correlation of detector performance with other properties of the material

  1. Micro-strip sensors based on CVD diamond

    Adam, W.; Berdermann, E.; Bergonzo, P.; Bertuccio, G.; Bogani, F.; Borchi, E.; Brambilla, A.; Bruzzi, M.; Colledani, C.; Conway, J.; D' Angelo, P.; Dabrowski, W.; Delpierre, P.; Deneuville, A.; Dulinski, W.; Eijk, B. van; Fallou, A.; Fizzotti, F.; Foulon, F.; Friedl, M.; Gan, K.K.; Gheeraert, E.; Hallewell, G.; Han, S.; Hartjes, F.; Hrubec, J.; Husson, D.; Kagan, H.; Kania, D.; Kaplon, J.; Kass, R.; Koeth, T.; Krammer, M.; Logiudice, A.; Lu, R.; Mac Lynne, L.; Manfredotti, C.; Meier, D. E-mail: dirk.meier@cern.ch; Mishina, M.; Moroni, L.; Oh, A.; Pan, L.S.; Pernicka, M.; Peitz, A.; Perera, L.; Pirollo, S.; Procario, M.; Riester, J.L.; Roe, S.; Rousseau, L.; Rudge, A.; Russ, J.; Sala, S.; Sampietro, M.; Schnetzer, S.; Sciortino, S.; Stelzer, H.; Stone, R.; Suter, B.; Tapper, R.J.; Tesarek, R.; Trischuk, W.; Tromson, D.; Vittone, E.; Walsh, A.M.; Wedenig, R.; Weilhammer, P.; Wetstein, M.; White, C.; Zeuner, W.; Zoeller, M

    2000-10-11

    In this article we present the performance of recent chemical vapour deposition (CVD) diamond micro-strip sensors in beam tests. In addition, we present the first comparison of a CVD diamond micro-strip sensor before and after proton irradiation.

  2. Micro-strip sensors based on CVD Diamond

    Adam, W; Bergonzo, P; Bertuccio, G; Bogani, F; Borchi, E; Brambilla, A; Bruzzi, Mara; Colledani, C; Conway, J; D'Angelo, P; Dabrowski, W; Delpierre, P A; Deneuville, A; Dulinski, W; van Eijk, B; Fallou, A; Fizzotti, F; Foulon, F; Friedl, M; Gan, K K; Gheeraert, E; Hallewell, G D; Han, S; Hartjes, F G; Hrubec, Josef; Husson, D; Kagan, H; Kania, D R; Kaplon, J; Kass, R; Koeth, T W; Krammer, Manfred; Lo Giudice, A; Lü, R; MacLynne, L; Manfredotti, C; Meier, D; Mishina, M; Moroni, L; Oh, A; Pan, L S; Pernicka, Manfred; Peitz, A; Perera, L P; Pirollo, S; Procario, M; Riester, J L; Roe, S; Rousseau, L; Rudge, A; Russ, J; Sala, S; Sampietro, M; Schnetzer, S R; Sciortino, S; Stelzer, H; Stone, R; Suter, B; Tapper, R J; Tesarek, R J; Trischuk, W; Tromson, D; Vittone, E; Walsh, A M; Wedenig, R; Weilhammer, Peter; Wetstein, M; White, C; Zeuner, W; Zoeller, M M

    2000-01-01

    In this article we present the performance of recent chemical vapour deposition (CVD) diamond micro-strip sensors in beam tests. In addition we present the first comparison of a CVD diamond micro-strip sensor before and after proton irradiation.

  3. Micro-strip sensors based on CVD diamond

    Adam, W.; Berdermann, E.; Bergonzo, P.; Bertuccio, G.; Bogani, F.; Borchi, E.; Brambilla, A.; Bruzzi, M.; Colledani, C.; Conway, J.; D'Angelo, P.; Dabrowski, W.; Delpierre, P.; Deneuville, A.; Dulinski, W.; Eijk, B. van; Fallou, A.; Fizzotti, F.; Foulon, F.; Friedl, M.; Gan, K.K.; Gheeraert, E.; Hallewell, G.; Han, S.; Hartjes, F.; Hrubec, J.; Husson, D.; Kagan, H.; Kania, D.; Kaplon, J.; Kass, R.; Koeth, T.; Krammer, M.; Logiudice, A.; Lu, R.; Mac Lynne, L.; Manfredotti, C.; Meier, D.; Mishina, M.; Moroni, L.; Oh, A.; Pan, L.S.; Pernicka, M.; Peitz, A.; Perera, L.; Pirollo, S.; Procario, M.; Riester, J.L.; Roe, S.; Rousseau, L.; Rudge, A.; Russ, J.; Sala, S.; Sampietro, M.; Schnetzer, S.; Sciortino, S.; Stelzer, H.; Stone, R.; Suter, B.; Tapper, R.J.; Tesarek, R.; Trischuk, W.; Tromson, D.; Vittone, E.; Walsh, A.M.; Wedenig, R.; Weilhammer, P.; Wetstein, M.; White, C.; Zeuner, W.; Zoeller, M.

    2000-01-01

    In this article we present the performance of recent chemical vapour deposition (CVD) diamond micro-strip sensors in beam tests. In addition, we present the first comparison of a CVD diamond micro-strip sensor before and after proton irradiation

  4. Micro-strip sensors based on CVD diamond

    Adam, W.; Berdermann, E.; Bergonzo, P.; Bertuccio, G.; Bogani, F.; Borchi, E.; Brambilla, A.; Bruzzi, M.; Colledani, C.; Conway, J.; D'Angelo, P.; Dabrowski, W.; Delpierre, P.; Deneuville, A.; Dulinski, W.; van Eijk, B.; Fallou, A.; Fizzotti, F.; Foulon, F.; Friedl, M.; Gan, K. K.; Gheeraert, E.; Hallewell, G.; Han, S.; Hartjes, F.; Hrubec, J.; Husson, D.; Kagan, H.; Kania, D.; Kaplon, J.; Kass, R.; Koeth, T.; Krammer, M.; Logiudice, A.; Lu, R.; mac Lynne, L.; Manfredotti, C.; Meier, D.; Mishina, M.; Moroni, L.; Oh, A.; Pan, L. S.; Pernicka, M.; Peitz, A.; Perera, L.; Pirollo, S.; Procario, M.; Riester, J. L.; Roe, S.; Rousseau, L.; Rudge, A.; Russ, J.; Sala, S.; Sampietro, M.; Schnetzer, S.; Sciortino, S.; Stelzer, H.; Stone, R.; Suter, B.; Tapper, R. J.; Tesarek, R.; Trischuk, W.; Tromson, D.; Vittone, E.; Walsh, A. M.; Wedenig, R.; Weilhammer, P.; Wetstein, M.; White, C.; Zeuner, W.; Zoeller, M.; RD42 Collaboration

    2000-10-01

    In this article we present the performance of recent chemical vapour deposition (CVD) diamond micro-strip sensors in beam tests. In addition, we present the first comparison of a CVD diamond micro-strip sensor before and after proton irradiation.

  5. Theoretical and practical aspects of risk management in contemporary global supply chains

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Globalization, off-shoring, outsourcing and pressure on cost reduction influence on the increasing complexity of supply chains and lead to higher risk. This may concern supplies, deliveries, manufacturing and transportation. Companies which source from distant countries have to implement risk management system. Examples of companies which use such systems prove, that it is possible to reduce uncertainty. Results concern shorter lead times, better quality and accepted cost level.

  6. A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States.

    Christopher W Woodall

    Full Text Available Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C, but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and evaluated a basic risk framework which combined the magnitude of C stocks and their associated probability of stock change in the context of global change across the US. For the purposes of this analysis, forest C was divided into five pools, two live (aboveground and belowground biomass and three dead (dead wood, soil organic matter, and forest floor with a risk framework parameterized using the US's national greenhouse gas inventory and associated forest inventory data across current and projected future Köppen-Geiger climate zones (A1F1 scenario. Results suggest that an initial forest C risk matrix may be constructed to focus attention on short- and long-term risks to forest C stocks (as opposed to implementation in decision making using inventory-based estimates of total stocks and associated estimates of variability (i.e., coefficient of variation among climate zones. The empirical parameterization of such a risk matrix highlighted numerous knowledge gaps: 1 robust measures of the likelihood of forest C stock change under climate change scenarios, 2 projections of forest C stocks given unforeseen socioeconomic conditions (i.e., land-use change, and 3 appropriate social responses to global change events for which there is no contemporary climate/disturbance analog (e.g., severe droughts in the Lake States. Coupling these current technical/social limits of developing a risk matrix to the biological processes of forest ecosystems (i.e., disturbance events and interaction among diverse forest C pools, potential positive feedbacks, and forest resiliency/recovery suggests an operational

  7. The relationship between cardiovascular risk factors and knowledge ...

    Adele Burger

    CV risk profile of the group according to the risk score system developed by the ... an individual has about CVD, and the possible risk factors contributing to the .... levels in the lowest tertile of CVD knowledge versus the highest tertile of CVD ..... CV risk factors and health behavior counseling, much can be done to prevent ...

  8. Change in cardiovascular risk factors following early diagnosis of type 2 diabetes: a cohort analysis of a cluster-randomised trial

    Black, James A; Sharp, Stephen J; Wareham, Nicholas J; Sandbæk, Annelli; Rutten, Guy EHM; Lauritzen, Torsten; Khunti, Kamlesh; Davies, Melanie J; Borch-Johnsen, Knut; Griffin, Simon J; Simmons, Rebecca K

    2014-01-01

    Background There is little evidence to inform the targeted treatment of individuals found early in the diabetes disease trajectory. Aim To describe cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk profiles and treatment of individual CVD risk factors by modelled CVD risk at diagnosis; changes in treatment, modelled CVD risk, and CVD risk factors in the 5 years following diagnosis; and how these are patterned by socioeconomic status. Design and setting Cohort analysis of a cluster-randomised trial (ADDITION-...

  9. Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps

    Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.

    2014-01-01

    In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.

  10. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioral, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    Moesgaard Iburg, Kim

    2016-01-01

    inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group......, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk...... pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood...

  11. CVD carbon powders modified by ball milling

    Kazmierczak Tomasz

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Carbon powders produced using a plasma assisted chemical vapor deposition (CVD methods are an interesting subject of research. One of the most interesting methods of synthesizing these powders is using radio frequency plasma. This method, originally used in deposition of carbon films containing different sp2/sp3 ratios, also makes possible to produce carbon structures in the form of powder. Results of research related to the mechanical modification of these powders have been presented. The powders were modified using a planetary ball mill with varying parameters, such as milling speed, time, ball/powder mass ratio and additional liquids. Changes in morphology and particle sizes were measured using scanning electron microscopy and dynamic light scattering. Phase composition was analyzed using Raman spectroscopy. The influence of individual parameters on the modification outcome was estimated using statistical method. The research proved that the size of obtained powders is mostly influenced by the milling speed and the amount of balls. Powders tend to form conglomerates sized up to hundreds of micrometers. Additionally, it is possible to obtain nanopowders with the size around 100 nm. Furthermore, application of additional liquid, i.e. water in the process reduces the graphitization of the powder, which takes place during dry milling.

  12. CVD diamond deposition onto dental burs

    Ali, N.; Sein, H.

    2001-01-01

    A hot-filament chemical vapor deposition (HFCVD) system has been modified to enable non-planar substrates, such as metallic wires and dental burs, to be uniformly coated with thin polycrystalline diamond films. Initially, diamond deposition was carried out on titanium and tantalum wires in order to test and optimize the system. High growth rates of the order of approx. 8 /hr were obtained when depositing diamond on titanium wires using the vertical filament arrangement. However, lower growth rates of the order of 4-5meu m/hr were obtained with diamond deposition on tantalum wires. To extend the work towards a practical biomedical application tungsten carbide dental burs were coated with diamond films. The as-grown films were found to be polycrystalline and uniform over the cutting tip. Finally, the costs relating to diamond CVD onto dental burs have been presented in this paper. The costs relating to coating different number of burs at a time and the effect of film thickness on costs have been included in this investigation. (author)

  13. CVD diamond substrates for electronic devices

    Holzer, H.

    1996-03-01

    In this study the applicability of chemical vapor deposition (CVD) diamond as a material for heat spreaders was investigated. Economical evaluations on the production of heat spreaders were also performed. For the diamond synthesis the hot-filament and microwave method were used respectively. The deposition parameters were varied in a way that free standing diamond layers with a thickness of 80 to 750 microns and different qualities were obtained. The influence of the deposition parameters on the relevant film properties was investigated and discussed. With both the hot-filament and microwave method it was possible to deposit diamond layers having a thermal conductivity exceeding 1200 W/mK and therefore to reach the quality level for commercial uses. The electrical resistivity was greater than 10 12 Ωcm. The investigation of the optical properties was done by Raman-, IR- and cathodoluminescence spectroscopy. Because of future applications of diamond-aluminium nitride composites as highly efficient heat spreaders diamond deposition an AIN was investigated. An improved substrate pretreatment prior to diamond deposition showed promising results for better performance of such composite heat spreaders. Both free standing layers and diamond-AIN composites could be cut by a CO2 Laser in Order to get an exact size geometry. A reduction of the diamond surface roughness was achieved by etching with manganese powder or cerium. (author)

  14. CVD-Graphene-Based Flexible, Thermoelectrochromic Sensor

    Adam Januszko

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The main idea behind this work was demonstrated in a form of a new thermoelectrochromic sensor on a flexible substrate using graphene as an electrically reconfigurable thermal medium (TEChrom™. Our approach relies on electromodulation of thermal properties of graphene on poly(ethylene terephthalate (PET via mechanical destruction of a graphene layer. Graphene applied in this work was obtained by chemical vapor deposition (CVD technique on copper substrate and characterized by Raman and scanning tunneling spectroscopy. Electrical parameters of graphene were evaluated by the van der Pauw method on the transferred graphene layers onto SiO2 substrates by electrochemical delamination method. Two configurations of architecture of sensors, without and with the thermochromic layer, were investigated, taking into account the increase of voltage from 0 to 50 V and were observed by thermographic camera to define heat energy. Current-voltage characteristics obtained for the sensor with damaged graphene layer are linear, and the resistivity is independent from the current applied. The device investigated under 1000 W/m2 exhibited rise of resistivity along with increased temperature. Flexible thermoelectrochromic device with graphene presented here can be widely used as a sensor for both the military and civil monitoring.

  15. A globally-distributed alien invasive species poses risks to United States imperiled species.

    McClure, Meredith L; Burdett, Christopher L; Farnsworth, Matthew L; Sweeney, Steven J; Miller, Ryan S

    2018-03-28

    In the midst of Earth's sixth mass extinction event, non-native species are a driving factor in many imperiled species' declines. One of the most widespread and destructive alien invasive species in the world, wild pigs (Sus scrofa) threaten native species through predation, habitat destruction, competition, and disease transmission. We show that wild pigs co-occur with up to 87.2% of imperiled species in the contiguous U.S. identified as susceptible to their direct impacts, and we project increases in both the number of species at risk and the geographic extent of risks by 2025. Wild pigs may therefore present a severe threat to U.S. imperiled species, with serious implications for management of at-risk species throughout wild pigs' global distribution. We offer guidance for efficient allocation of research effort and conservation resources across species and regions using a simple approach that can be applied to wild pigs and other alien invasive species globally.

  16. A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion.

    Oakleaf, James R; Kennedy, Christina M; Baruch-Mordo, Sharon; West, Paul C; Gerber, James S; Jarvis, Larissa; Kiesecker, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2) and could result in half of the world's biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth's at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature.

  17. Global potential for carbon sequestration. Geographical distribution, country risk and policy implications

    Benitez, Pablo C.; McCallum, Ian; Obersteiner, Michael; Yamagata, Yoshiki

    2007-01-01

    We have provided a framework for identifying least-cost sites for afforestation and reforestation and deriving carbon sequestration cost curves at a global level in a scenario of limited information. Special attention is given to country risk in developing countries and the sensitivity to spatial datasets. Our model results suggest that within 20 years and considering a carbon price of USD 50/tC, tree-planting activities could offset 1 year of global carbon emissions in the energy sector. However, if we account for country risk considerations-associated with political, economic and financial risks - carbon sequestration is reduced by approximately 60%. With respect to the geography of supply, illustrated by grid-scale maps, we find that most least-cost sites are located in regions of developing countries such as the Sub-Sahara, Southeast Brazil and Southeast Asia. (author)

  18. Global assessment of river flood protection benefits and corresponding residual risks under climate change

    Lim, Wee Ho; Yamazaki, Dai; Koirala, Sujan; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Kanae, Shinjiro; Dadson, Simon J.; Hall, Jim W.

    2016-04-01

    Global warming increases the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere and this could lead to more intense rainfalls and possibly increasing natural hazards in the form of flooding in some regions. This implies that traditional practice of using historical hydrological records alone is somewhat limited for supporting long-term water infrastructure planning. This has motivated recent global scale studies to evaluate river flood risks (e.g., Hirabayashi et al., 2013, Arnell and Gosling, 2014, Sadoff et al., 2015) and adaptations benefits (e.g., Jongman et al., 2015). To support decision-making in river flood risk reduction, this study takes a further step to examine the benefits and corresponding residual risks for a range of flood protection levels. To do that, we channelled runoff information of a baseline period (forced by observed hydroclimate conditions) and each CMIP5 model (historic and future periods) into a global river routing model called CaMa-Flood (Yamazaki et al., 2011). We incorporated the latest global river width data (Yamazaki et al., 2014) into CaMa-Flood and simulate the river water depth at a spatial resolution of 15 min x 15 min. From the simulated results of baseline period, we use the annual maxima river water depth to fit the Gumbel distribution and prepare the return period-flood risk relationship (involving population and GDP). From the simulated results of CMIP5 model, we also used the annual maxima river water depth to obtain the Gumbel distribution and then estimate the exceedance probability (historic and future periods). We apply the return period-flood risk relationship (above) to the exceedance probability and evaluate the flood protection benefits. We quantify the corresponding residual risks using a mathematical approach that is consistent with the modelling structure of CaMa-Flood. Globally and regionally, we find that the benefits of flood protection level peak somewhere between 20 and 500 years; residual risks diminish

  19. Cardiovascular risk prediction

    Graversen, Peter; Abildstrøm, Steen Z.; Jespersen, Lasse

    2016-01-01

    Aim European society of cardiology (ESC) guidelines recommend that cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk stratification in asymptomatic individuals is based on the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithm, which estimates individual 10-year risk of death from CVD. We assessed the potential...

  20. NHS health checks through general practice: randomised trial of population cardiovascular risk reduction

    Cochrane Thomas

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The global burden of the major vascular diseases is projected to rise and to remain the dominant non-communicable disease cluster well into the twenty first century. The Department of Health in England has developed the NHS Health Check service as a policy initiative to reduce population vascular disease risk. The aims of this study were to monitor population changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors over the first year of the new service and to assess the value of tailored lifestyle support, including motivational interview with ongoing support and referral to other services. Methods Randomised trial comparing NHS Health Check service only with NHS Health Check service plus additional lifestyle support in Stoke on Trent, England. Thirty eight general practices and 601 (365 usual care, 236 additional lifestyle support patients were recruited and randomised independently between September 2009 and February 2010. Changes in population CVD risk between baseline and one year follow-up were compared, using intention-to-treat analysis. The primary outcome was the Framingham 10 year CVD risk score. Secondary outcomes included individual modifiable risk measures and prevalence of individual risk categories. Additional lifestyle support included referral to a lifestyle coach and free sessions as needed for: weight management, physical activity, cook and eat and positive thinking. Results Average population CVD risk decreased from 32.9% to 29.4% (p Conclusions The NHS Health Check service in Stoke on Trent resulted in significant reduction in estimated population CVD risk. There was no evidence of further benefit of the additional lifestyle support services in terms of absolute CVD risk reduction.

  1. Risk Analysis Reveals Global Hotspots for Marine Debris Ingestion by Sea Turtles

    Schuyler, Q. A.; Wilcox, C.; Townsend, K.; Wedemeyer-Strombel, K.; Balazs, G.; van Sebille, E.; Hardesty, B. D.

    2016-02-01

    Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with sea turtle habitat maps to predict exposure levels to plastic pollution. Empirical data from necropsies of deceased animals were then utilised to assess the consequence of exposure to plastics. We modelled the risk (probability of debris ingestion) by incorporating exposure to debris and consequence of exposure, and included life history stage, species of sea turtle, and date of stranding observation as possible additional explanatory factors. Life history stage is the best predictor of debris ingestion, but the best-fit model also incorporates encounter rates within a limited distance from stranding location, marine debris predictions specific to the date of the stranding study, and turtle species. There was no difference in ingestion rates between stranded turtles vs. those caught as bycatch from fishing activity, suggesting that stranded animals are not a biased representation of debris ingestion rates in the background population. Oceanic life-stage sea turtles are at the highest risk of debris ingestion, and olive ridley turtles are the most at-risk species. The regions of highest risk to global sea turtle populations are off of the east coasts of the USA, Australia, and South Africa; the east Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia. Model results can be used to predict the number of sea turtles globally at risk of debris ingestion. Based on currently available data, initial calculations indicate that up to 52% of sea turtles may have ingested debris.

  2. Risk analysis reveals global hotspots for marine debris ingestion by sea turtles.

    Schuyler, Qamar A; Wilcox, Chris; Townsend, Kathy A; Wedemeyer-Strombel, Kathryn R; Balazs, George; van Sebille, Erik; Hardesty, Britta Denise

    2016-02-01

    Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with sea turtle habitat maps to predict exposure levels to plastic pollution. Empirical data from necropsies of deceased animals were then utilised to assess the consequence of exposure to plastics. We modelled the risk (probability of debris ingestion) by incorporating exposure to debris and consequence of exposure, and included life history stage, species of sea turtle and date of stranding observation as possible additional explanatory factors. Life history stage is the best predictor of debris ingestion, but the best-fit model also incorporates encounter rates within a limited distance from stranding location, marine debris predictions specific to the date of the stranding study and turtle species. There is no difference in ingestion rates between stranded turtles vs. those caught as bycatch from fishing activity, suggesting that stranded animals are not a biased representation of debris ingestion rates in the background population. Oceanic life-stage sea turtles are at the highest risk of debris ingestion, and olive ridley turtles are the most at-risk species. The regions of highest risk to global sea turtle populations are off of the east coasts of the USA, Australia and South Africa; the east Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia. Model results can be used to predict the number of sea turtles globally at risk of debris ingestion. Based on currently available data, initial calculations indicate that up to 52% of sea turtles may have ingested debris. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Prevalence of Gestational Diabetes and Risk of Progression to Type 2 Diabetes: a Global Perspective.

    Zhu, Yeyi; Zhang, Cuilin

    2016-01-01

    Despite the increasing epidemic of diabetes mellitus affecting populations at different life stages, the global burden of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is not well assessed. Systematically synthesized data on global prevalence estimates of GDM are lacking, particularly among developing countries. The hyperglycemic intrauterine environment as exemplified in pregnancies complicated by GDM might not only reflect but also fuel the epidemic of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We comprehensively reviewed available data in the past decade in an attempt to estimate the contemporary global prevalence of GDM by country and region. We reviewed the risk of progression from GDM to T2DM as well. Synthesized data demonstrate wide variations in both prevalence estimates of GDM and the risk of progression from GDM to T2DM. Direct comparisons of GDM burden across countries or regions are challenging given the great heterogeneity in screening approaches, diagnostic criteria, and underlying population characteristics. In this regard, collaborative efforts to estimate global GDM prevalence would be a large but important leap forward. Such efforts may have substantial public health implications in terms of informing health policy makers and healthcare providers for disease burden and for developing more targeted and effective diabetes prevention and management strategies globally.

  4. Global assessment of extinction risk to populations of Sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka.

    Peter S Rand

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Concern about the decline of wild salmon has attracted the attention of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN. The IUCN applies quantitative criteria to assess risk of extinction and publishes its results on the Red List of Threatened Species. However, the focus is on the species level and thus may fail to show the risk to populations. The IUCN has adapted their criteria to apply to populations but there exist few examples of this type of assessment. We assessed the status of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka as a model for application of the IUCN population-level assessments and to provide the first global assessment of the status of an anadromous Pacific salmon. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We found from demographic data that the sockeye salmon species is not presently at risk of extinction. We identified 98 independent populations with varying levels of risk within the species' range. Of these, 5 (5% are already extinct. We analyzed the risk for 62 out of 93 extant populations (67% and found that 17 of these (27% are at risk of extinction. The greatest number and concentration of extinct and threatened populations is in the southern part of the North American range, primarily due to overfishing, freshwater habitat loss, dams, hatcheries, and changing ocean conditions. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Although sockeye salmon are not at risk at the species-level, about one-third of the populations that we analyzed are at risk or already extinct. Without an understanding of risk to biodiversity at the level of populations, the biodiversity loss in salmon would be greatly underrepresented on the Red List. We urge government, conservation organizations, scientists and the public to recognize this limitation of the Red List. We also urge recognition that about one-third of sockeye salmon global population diversity is at risk of extinction or already extinct.

  5. Comparison and Evaluation of Global Scale Studies of Vulnerability and Risks to Climate Change

    Muccione, Veruska; Allen, Simon K.; Huggel, Christian; Birkmann, Joern

    2015-04-01

    Understanding the present and future distribution of different climate change impacts and vulnerability to climate change is a central subject in the context of climate justice and international climate policy. Commonly, it is claimed that poor countries that contributed little to anthropogenic climate change are those most affected and most vulnerable to climate change. Such statements are backed by a number of global-scale vulnerability studies, which identified poor countries as most vulnerable. However, some studies have challenged this view, likewise highlighting the high vulnerability of richer countries. Overall, no consensus has been reached so far about which concept of vulnerability should be applied and what type of indicators should be considered. Furthermore, there is little agreement which specific countries are most vulnerable. This is a major concern in view of the need to inform international climate policy, all the more if such assessments should contribute to allocate climate adaptation funds as was invoked at some instances. We argue that next to the analysis of who is most vulnerable, it is also important to better understand and compare different vulnerability profiles assessed in present global studies. We perform a systematic literature review of global vulnerability assessments with the scope to highlight vulnerability distribution patterns. We then compare these distributions with global risk distributions in line with revised and adopted concepts by most recent IPCC reports. It emerges that improved differentiation of key drivers of risk and the understanding of different vulnerability profiles are important contributions, which can inform future adaptation policies at the regional and national level. This can change the perspective on, and basis for distributional issues in view of climate burden share, and therefore can have implications for UNFCCC financing instruments (e.g. Green Climate Fund). However, in order to better compare

  6. Relationships between body mass index, cardiovascular mortality, and risk factors

    Dudina, Alexandra; Cooney, Marie Therese; Bacquer, Dirk De

    2011-01-01

    Although cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the biggest global cause of death, CVD mortality is falling in developed countries. There is concern that this trend may be offset by increasing levels of obesity.......Although cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the biggest global cause of death, CVD mortality is falling in developed countries. There is concern that this trend may be offset by increasing levels of obesity....

  7. A global evolutionary and metabolic analysis of human obesity gene risk variants.

    Castillo, Joseph J; Hazlett, Zachary S; Orlando, Robert A; Garver, William S

    2017-09-05

    It is generally accepted that the selection of gene variants during human evolution optimized energy metabolism that now interacts with our obesogenic environment to increase the prevalence of obesity. The purpose of this study was to perform a global evolutionary and metabolic analysis of human obesity gene risk variants (110 human obesity genes with 127 nearest gene risk variants) identified using genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to enhance our knowledge of early and late genotypes. As a result of determining the mean frequency of these obesity gene risk variants in 13 available populations from around the world our results provide evidence for the early selection of ancestral risk variants (defined as selection before migration from Africa) and late selection of derived risk variants (defined as selection after migration from Africa). Our results also provide novel information for association of these obesity genes or encoded proteins with diverse metabolic pathways and other human diseases. The overall results indicate a significant differential evolutionary pattern for the selection of obesity gene ancestral and derived risk variants proposed to optimize energy metabolism in varying global environments and complex association with metabolic pathways and other human diseases. These results are consistent with obesity genes that encode proteins possessing a fundamental role in maintaining energy metabolism and survival during the course of human evolution. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  8. Globalization

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  9. Globalization

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  10. Distribution of major health risks: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study.

    Anthony Rodgers

    2004-10-01

    Full Text Available Most analyses of risks to health focus on the total burden of their aggregate effects. The distribution of risk-factor-attributable disease burden, for example by age or exposure level, can inform the selection and targeting of specific interventions and programs, and increase cost-effectiveness.For 26 selected risk factors, expert working groups conducted comprehensive reviews of data on risk-factor exposure and hazard for 14 epidemiological subregions of the world, by age and sex. Age-sex-subregion-population attributable fractions were estimated and applied to the mortality and burden of disease estimates from the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease database. Where possible, exposure levels were assessed as continuous measures, or as multiple categories. The proportion of risk-factor-attributable burden in different population subgroups, defined by age, sex, and exposure level, was estimated. For major cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure, cholesterol, tobacco use, fruit and vegetable intake, body mass index, and physical inactivity 43%-61% of attributable disease burden occurred between the ages of 15 and 59 y, and 87% of alcohol-attributable burden occurred in this age group. Most of the disease burden for continuous risks occurred in those with only moderately raised levels, not among those with levels above commonly used cut-points, such as those with hypertension or obesity. Of all disease burden attributable to being underweight during childhood, 55% occurred among children 1-3 standard deviations below the reference population median, and the remainder occurred among severely malnourished children, who were three or more standard deviations below median.Many major global risks are widely spread in a population, rather than restricted to a minority. Population-based strategies that seek to shift the whole distribution of risk factors often have the potential to produce substantial reductions in disease burden.

  11. Assessment of Cardiovascular Disease Risk in South Asian Populations

    S. Monira Hussain

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Although South Asian populations have high cardiovascular disease (CVD burden in the world, their patterns of individual CVD risk factors have not been fully studied. None of the available algorithms/scores to assess CVD risk have originated from these populations. To explore the relevance of CVD risk scores for these populations, literature search and qualitative synthesis of available evidence were performed. South Asians usually have higher levels of both “classical” and nontraditional CVD risk factors and experience these at a younger age. There are marked variations in risk profiles between South Asian populations. More than 100 risk algorithms are currently available, with varying risk factors. However, no available algorithm has included all important risk factors that underlie CVD in these populations. The future challenge is either to appropriately calibrate current risk algorithms or ideally to develop new risk algorithms that include variables that provide an accurate estimate of CVD risk.

  12. CVD refractory metals and alloys for space nuclear power application

    Yang, L.; Gulden, T.D.; Watson, J.F.

    1984-01-01

    CVD technology has made significant contributions to the development of space nuclear power systems during the period 1962 to 1972. For the in-core thermionic concept, CVD technology is essential to the fabrication of the tungsten electron emitter. For the liquid metal cooled fuel pin using uranium nitride as fuel and T-111 and Nb-1 Zr as cladding, a tungsten barrier possibly produced by CVD methods is essential to the fuel-cladding compatibility at the designed operating temperature. Space power reactors may use heat pipes to transfer heat from the reactor core to the conversion system. CVD technology has been used for fabricating the heat pipe used as cross-flow heat exchanger, including the built-in channels on the condenser wall for liquid lithium return. 28 references, 17 figures

  13. Investigation of defects in CVD diamond: Influence for radiotherapy applications

    Guerrero, M.J.; Tromson, D.; Bergonzo, P.; Barrett, R.

    2005-01-01

    In this study we present the potentialities of CVD diamond as an ionisation chamber for radiotherapy applications. Trapping levels present in CVD diamond are characterised using Thermally Stimulated Current (TSC) method with X-ray sources. The influence of the corresponding defects on the detector response is investigated and compared to those observed in natural diamond. Also, their spatial distribution across a large area polycrystalline diamond ionisation chamber is discussed. Results show the relative influence of two different populations of trapping levels in CVD diamond whose effect is crucial for radiotherapy applications. To partially overcome the defect detrimental effects, we propose to use CVD diamond ionisation chambers at moderate temperatures from 70 to 100 deg. C that could be provided by self heating of the device, for a dramatically improved stability and reproducibility

  14. The gate oxide integrity of CVD tungsten polycide

    Wu, N.W.; Su, W.D.; Chang, S.W.; Tseng, M.F.

    1988-01-01

    CVD tungsten polycide has been demonstrated as a good gate material in recent very large scale integration (VLSI) technology. CVD tungsten silicide offers advantages of low resistivity, high temperature stability and good step coverage. On the other hand, the polysilicon underlayer preserves most characteristics of the polysilicon gate and acts as a stress buffer layer to absorb part of the thermal stress origin from the large thermal expansion coefficient of tungsten silicide. Nevertheless, the gate oxide of CVD tungsten polycide is less stable or reliable than that of polysilicon gate. In this paper, the gate oxide integrity of CVD tungsten polycide with various thickness combinations and different thermal processes have been analyzed by several electrical measurements including breakdown yield, breakdown fluence, room temperature TDDB, I-V characteristics, electron traps and interface state density

  15. Coping with global environmental change, disasters and security. Threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks

    Brauch, Hans Guenter [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Dept. of Political and Social Sciences; UNU-EHS, Bonn (DE). College of Associated Scientists and Advisors (CASA); Oswald Spring, Ursula [National Univ. of Mexico, Cuernavaca (MX). Regional Multidisciplinary Research Centre (CRIM); Mesjasz, Czeslaw [Cracow Univ. of Exonomics (Poland). Faculty of Management; Grin, John [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Dept. of Political Science; Dutch Knowledge network for Systems Innovations and Transitions (KSI), Amsterdam (Netherlands); Kameri-Mbote, Patricia [Strathmore Univ., Nairobi (Kenya). Dept. of Law; International Environmental Law Research Centre, Nairobi (Kenya); Chourou, Bechir [Univ. of Tunis-Carthage, Hammam-Chatt (Tunisia); Dunay, Pal [Geneva Centre for Security Policy (Switzerland). International Training Course in Security Policy; Birkmann, Joern (eds.) [United Nations Univ. (UNU), Bonn (DE). Inst. for Environment and Human Security (EHS)

    2011-07-01

    This policy-focused Global Environmental and Human Security Handbook for the Anthropo-cene (GEHSHA) addresses new security threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks posed by global environmental change and disasters. In 6 forewords, 5 preface essays 95 peer reviewed chapcountries analyse in 10 parts concepts of military and political hard security and economic, social, environmental soft security with a regional focus on the Near East, North and Sub-Sahara Africa and Asia and on hazards in urban centres. The major focus is on coping with global environmental change: climate change, desertification, water, food and health and with hazards and strategies on social vulnerability and resilience building and scientific, international, regional and national political strategies, policies and measures including early warning of conflicts and hazards. The book proposes a political geo-ecology and discusses a 'Fourth Green Revolution' for the Anthropocene era of earth history. (orig.)

  16. A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  17. Assessing global exposure and vulnerability towards natural hazards: the Disaster Risk Index

    P. Peduzzi

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model of factors influencing levels of human losses from natural hazards at the global scale, for the period 1980–2000. This model was designed for the United Nations Development Programme as a building stone of the Disaster Risk Index (DRI, which aims at monitoring the evolution of risk. Assessing what countries are most at risk requires considering various types of hazards, such as droughts, floods, cyclones and earthquakes. Before assessing risk, these four hazards were modelled using GIS and overlaid with a model of population distribution in order to extract human exposure. Human vulnerability was measured by crossing exposure with selected socio-economic parameters. The model evaluates to what extent observed past losses are related to population exposure and vulnerability. Results reveal that human vulnerability is mostly linked with country development level and environmental quality. A classification of countries is provided, as well as recommendations on data improvement for future use of the model.

  18. Verification of thermo-fluidic CVD reactor model

    Lisik, Z; Turczynski, M; Ruta, L; Raj, E

    2014-01-01

    Presented paper describes the numerical model of CVD (Chemical Vapour Deposition) reactor created in ANSYS CFX, whose main purpose is the evaluation of numerical approaches used to modelling of heat and mass transfer inside the reactor chamber. Verification of the worked out CVD model has been conducted with measurements under various thermal, pressure and gas flow rate conditions. Good agreement between experimental and numerical results confirms correctness of the elaborated model.

  19. Environmental and Health Benefits and Risks of a Global Hydrogen Economy

    Dubey, M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Rahn, T. A.; Kinnison, D. E.

    2003-12-01

    Rapid development in hydrogen fuel-cell technologies will create a strong impetus for a massive hydrogen supply and distribution infrastructure in the coming decades. Hydrogen provides an efficient energy carrier that promises to enhance urban and regional air quality that will benefit human health. It could also reduce risks of climate change if large-scale hydrogen production by renewable or nuclear energy sources becomes viable. While it is well known that the byproduct of energy produced from hydrogen is water vapor, it is not well known that the storage and transfer of hydrogen is inevitably accompanied by measurable leakage of hydrogen. Unintended consequences of hydrogen leakage include reduction in global oxidative capacity, changes in tropospheric ozone, and increase in stratospheric water that would exacerbate halogen induced ozone losses as well as impact the earth's radiation budget and climate. Stratospheric ozone depletion would increase exposure to harmful ultraviolet radiation and increased risk to melanoma. We construct plausible global hydrogen energy use and leak scenarios and assess their impacts using global 3-D simulations by the Model for Ozone And Related Trace species (MOZART). The hydrogen fluxes and photochemistry in our model successfully reproduce the contemporary hydrogen cycle as observed by a network of remote global stations. Our intent is to determine environmentally tolerable leak rates and also facilitate a gradual phasing in of a hydrogen economy over the next several decades as the elimination of the use of halocarbons gradually reduces halogen induced stratospheric ozone loss rates. We stress that the future evolution of microbial soil sink of hydrogen that determines its current lifetime (about 2 years) is the principal source of uncertainty in our assessment. We propose global monitoring of hydrogen and its deuterium content to define a baseline and track its budget to responsibly prepare for a global hydrogen economy.

  20. Reaping Environmental Benefits of a Global Hydrogen Economy: How Large, Fow Soon, and at What Risks?

    Dubey, M. K.; Horowitz, L. W.; Rahn, T. A.; Kinnison, D. E.

    2004-12-01

    The Western world has taken an aggressive posture to transition to a global hydrogen economy. While numerous technical challenges need to be addressed to achieve this it is timely to examine the environmental benefits and risks of this transition. Hydrogen provides an efficient energy carrier that promises to enhance urban and regional air quality that will benefit human health. It could also reduce risks of climate change if large-scale hydrogen production by renewable or nuclear energy sources becomes viable. While it is well known that the byproduct of energy produced from hydrogen is water vapor, it is not well known that the storage and transfer of hydrogen is inevitably accompanied by measurable leakage of hydrogen. Unintended consequences of hydrogen leakage include reduction in global oxidative capacity, changes in tropospheric ozone, and increase in stratospheric water that would exacerbate halogen induced ozone losses as well as impact the earth's radiation budget and climate. We construct plausible global hydrogen energy use and leak scenarios and assess their impacts using global 3-D simulations by the Model for Ozone And Related Trace species (MOZART). The hydrogen fluxes and photochemistry in our model successfully reproduce the contemporary hydrogen cycle as observed by a network of remote global stations. Our intent is to determine environmentally tolerable leak rates and also facilitate a gradual phasing in of a hydrogen economy over the next several decades as the elimination of the use of halocarbons gradually reduces halogen induced stratospheric ozone loss rates. We stress that the leak rates in global hydrogen infrastructure and the future evolution of microbial soil sink of hydrogen that determines its current lifetime (about 2 years) are principal sources of uncertainty in our assessment.

  1. Multi-Model Projections of River Flood Risk in Europe under Global Warming

    Lorenzo Alfieri

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge on the costs of natural disasters under climate change is key information for planning adaptation and mitigation strategies of future climate policies. Impact models for large scale flood risk assessment have made leaps forward in the past few years, thanks to the increased availability of high resolution climate projections and of information on local exposure and vulnerability to river floods. Yet, state-of-the-art flood impact models rely on a number of input data and techniques that can substantially influence their results. This work compares estimates of river flood risk in Europe from three recent case studies, assuming global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels. The assessment is based on comparing ensemble projections of expected damage and population affected at country level. Differences and common points between the three cases are shown, to point out main sources of uncertainty, strengths, and limitations. In addition, the multi-model comparison helps identify regions with the largest agreement on specific changes in flood risk. Results show that global warming is linked to substantial increase in flood risk over most countries in Central and Western Europe at all warming levels. In Eastern Europe, the average change in flood risk is smaller and the multi-model agreement is poorer.

  2. Canada's contribution to global research in cardiovascular diseases.

    Nguyen, Hai V; de Oliveira, Claire; Wijeysundera, Harindra C; Wong, William W L; Woo, Gloria; Grootendorst, Paul; Liu, Peter P; Krahn, Murray D

    2013-06-01

    The burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Canada and other developed countries is growing, in part because of the aging of the population and the alarming rise of obesity. Studying Canada's contribution to the global body of CVD research output will shed light on the effectiveness of investments in Canadian CVD research and inform if Canada has been responding to its CVD burden. Search was conducted using the Web-of-Science database for publications during 1981 through 2010 on major areas and specific interventions in CVD. Search was also conducted using Canadian and US online databases for patents issued between 1981 and 2010. Search data were used to estimate the proportions of the world's pool of research publications and of patents conducted by researchers based in Canada. The results indicate that Canada contributed 6% of global research in CVD during 1981 through 2010. Further, Canada's contribution shows a strong upward trend during the period. Based on patent data, Canada's contribution level was similar (5%-7%). Canada's contribution to the global pool of CVD research is on par with France and close to the UK, Japan, and Germany. Canada's contribution in global CVD research is higher than its average contribution in all fields of research (6% vs 3%). As the burden of chronic diseases including CVD rises with Canada's aging population, the increase in Canadian research into CVD is encouraging. Copyright © 2013 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Global Hotspots of Conflict Risk between Food Security and Biodiversity Conservation

    Molotoks, Amy; Dawson, Terence Peter

    2017-01-01

    The global challenges of food security and biodiversity are rarely addressed together, though recently there has been an increasing awareness that the two issues are closely related. The majority of land available for agriculture is already used for food production, but despite the productivity gains, one in nine people worldwide are classified as food insecure. There is an increasing risk that addressing food insecurity through methods such as agricultural expansion orintensification could l...

  4. Public risk-reduction measures: cost-effectiveness from a global point-of-view

    Oliveira, L.F.S. de; Motta Barros, E.B. da; Fleming, P.V.; Rosa, L.P.

    1985-05-01

    A review of systemic or global approach to cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures is presented, and its advantages and limitations are discussed. The method is applied for problem of the cost-effectiveness of increasing the Angra 3 reactor containment wall thickness from 60cm to 180cm thick, in case of a direct commercial aircraft crash on it. (Author) [pt

  5. Seismic and wind vulnerability assessment for the GAR-13 global risk assessment

    Yamín Lacouture, Luis Eduardo; Hurtado Chaparro, Alvaro Ivan; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro; Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario

    2014-01-01

    A general methodology to evaluate vulnerability functions suitable for a probabilistic global risk assessment is proposed. The methodology is partially based in the methodological approach of the Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology (Hazus) developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The vulnerability assessment process considers the resolution, information and limitations established for both the hazard and exposure models adopted. Seismic and wind vulnerability function...

  6. Ion beam figuring of CVD silicon carbide mirrors

    Gailly, P.; Collette, J.-P.; Fleury Frenette, K.; Jamar, C.

    2017-11-01

    Optical and structural elements made of silicon carbide are increasingly found in space instruments. Chemical vapor deposited silicon carbide (CVD-SiC) is used as a reflective coating on SiC optics in reason of its good behavior under polishing. The advantage of applying ion beam figuring (IBF) to CVD-SiC over other surface figure-improving techniques is discussed herein. The results of an IBF sequence performed at the Centre Spatial de Liège on a 100 mm CVD-SiC mirror are reported. The process allowed to reduce the mirror surface errors from 243 nm to 13 nm rms . Beside the surface figure, roughness is another critical feature to consider in order to preserve the optical quality of CVD-SiC . Thus, experiments focusing on the evolution of roughness were performed in various ion beam etching conditions. The roughness of samples etched at different depths down to 3 ≠m was determined with an optical profilometer. These measurements emphasize the importance of selecting the right combination of gas and beam energy to keep roughness at a low level. Kaufman-type ion sources are generally used to perform IBF but the performance of an end-Hall ion source in figuring CVD-SiC mirrors was also evaluated in this study. In order to do so, ion beam etching profiles obtained with the end-Hall source on CVD-SiC were measured and used as a basis for IBF simulations.

  7. CVD Diamond Sensors In Detectors For High Energy Physics

    AUTHOR|(INSPIRE)INSPIRE-00334150; Trischuk, William

    At the end of the next decade an upgrade of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) to High Luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) is planned which requires the development of new radiation tolerant sensor technology. Diamond is an interesting material for use as a particle detector in high radiation environments. The large band gap ($5.47\\,\\text{eV}$) and the large displacement energy suggest that diamond is a radiation tolerant detector material. In this Thesis the capability of Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) diamond as such a sensor technology is investigated. The radiation damage constant for $800\\,\\text{MeV}$ protons is measured using single crystalline CVD (scCVD) and polycrystalline CVD (pCVD) diamonds irradiated to particle fluences up to $12 \\times 10^{15}\\,\\text{p/cm}^2$. In addition the signal response of a pCVD diamond detector after an irradiation to $12 \\times 10^{15}\\,\\text{p/cm}^2$ is investigated to determine if such a detector can be operated efficiently in the expected HL-LHC environment. By using electrodes em...

  8. A global assessment of wildfire risks to human and environmental water security

    Robinne, François-Nicolas; Parisien, Marc-André; Flannigan, Mike; Miller, Carol; Bladon, Kevin D.

    2017-04-01

    Extreme wildfire events extensively affect hydrosystem stability and generate an important threat to the reliability of the water supply for human and natural communities. While actively studied at the watershed scale, the development of a global vision of wildfire risk to water security has only been undertaken recently, pointing at potential water security concerns in an era of global changes. In order to address this concern, we propose a global-scale analysis of the wildfire risk to surface water supplies based on the Driving forces-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) framework. This framework relies on the cause-and-effect relationships existing between the five categories of the DPSIR chain. Based on the literature, we gathered an extensive set of spatial indicators relevant to fire-induced hydrological hazards and water consumption patterns by human and natural communities. Each indicator was assigned a DPSIR category. Then, we collapsed the information in each category using a principal component analysis in order to extract the most relevant pixel-based information provided by each spatial indicator. Finally, we compiled our five categories using an additive indexation process to produce a spatially-explicit index of the wildfire-water risk (WWR). For comparison purposes, we aggregated index scores by global hydrological regions, or hydrobelts, for analysis. Overall, our results show a distinct pattern of medium-to-high risk levels in areas where sizeable wildfire activity, water resources, and water consumption are concomitant, which mainly encompasses temperate and sub-tropical zones. A closer look at hydrobelts reveals differences in the factors driving the risk, with fire activity being the primary factor of risk in the circumboreal forest, and freshwater resource density being prevalent in tropical areas. We also identified major urban areas across the world whose source waters should be protected from extreme fire events, particularly when

  9. The risk of water scarcity at different levels of global warming

    Schewe, Jacob; Sharpe, Simon

    2015-04-01

    Water scarcity is a threat to human well-being and economic development in many countries today. Future climate change is expected to exacerbate the global water crisis by reducing renewable freshwater resources different world regions, many of which are already dry. Studies of future water scarcity often focus on most-likely, or highest-confidence, scenarios. However, multi-model projections of water resources reveal large uncertainty ranges, which are due to different types of processes (climate, hydrology, human) and are therefore not easy to reduce. Thus, central estimates or multi-model mean results may be insufficient to inform policy and management. Here we present an alternative, risk-based approach. We use an ensemble of multiple global climate and hydrological models to quantify the likelihood of crossing a given water scarcity threshold under different levels of global warming. This approach allows assessing the risk associated with any particular, pre-defined threshold (or magnitude of change that must be avoided), regardless of whether it lies in the center or in the tails of the uncertainty distribution. We show applications of this method on the country and river basin scale, illustrate the effects of societal processes on the resulting risk estimates, and discuss the further potential of this approach for research and stakeholder dialogue.

  10. Globalization and eating disorder risk: Peer influence, perceived social norms, and adolescent disordered eating in Fiji

    Gerbasi, Margaret E.; Richards, Lauren K.; Thomas, Jennifer J.; Agnew-Blais, Jessica C.; Thompson-Brenner, Heather; Gilman, Stephen E.; Becker, Anne E.

    2014-01-01

    Objective The increasing global health burden imposed by eating disorders warrants close examination of social exposures associated with globalization that potentially elevate risk during the critical developmental period of adolescence in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The study aim was to investigate the association of peer influence and perceived social norms with adolescent eating pathology in Fiji, a LMIC undergoing rapid social change. Method We measured peer influence on eating concerns (with the Inventory of Peer Influence on Eating Concerns; IPIEC), perceived peer norms associated with disordered eating and body concerns, perceived community cultural norms, and individual cultural orientations in a representative sample of school-going ethnic Fijian adolescent girls (n=523). We then developed a multivariable linear regression model to examine their relation to eating pathology (measured by the Eating Disorder Examination-Questionnaire; EDE-Q). Results We found independent and statistically significant associations between both IPIEC scores and our proxy for perceived social norms specific to disordered eating (both p disordered eating may elevate risk for disordered eating in Fiji, during the critical developmental period of adolescence. Replication and extension of these research findings in other populations undergoing rapid social transition—and where globalization is also influencing local social norms—may enrich etiologic models and inform strategies to mitigate risk. PMID:25139374

  11. Globalization and eating disorder risk: peer influence, perceived social norms, and adolescent disordered eating in Fiji.

    Gerbasi, Margaret E; Richards, Lauren K; Thomas, Jennifer J; Agnew-Blais, Jessica C; Thompson-Brenner, Heather; Gilman, Stephen E; Becker, Anne E

    2014-11-01

    The increasing global health burden imposed by eating disorders warrants close examination of social exposures associated with globalization that potentially elevate risk during the critical developmental period of adolescence in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The study aim was to investigate the association of peer influence and perceived social norms with adolescent eating pathology in Fiji, a LMIC undergoing rapid social change. We measured peer influence on eating concerns (with the Inventory of Peer Influence on Eating Concerns; IPIEC), perceived peer norms associated with disordered eating and body concerns, perceived community cultural norms, and individual cultural orientations in a representative sample of school-going ethnic Fijian adolescent girls (n = 523). We then developed a multivariable linear regression model to examine their relation to eating pathology (measured by the Eating Disorder Examination-Questionnaire; EDE-Q). We found independent and statistically significant associations between both IPIEC scores and our proxy for perceived social norms specific to disordered eating (both p peer influence as well as perceived social norms relevant to disordered eating may elevate risk for disordered eating in Fiji, during the critical developmental period of adolescence. Replication and extension of these research findings in other populations undergoing rapid social transition--and where globalization is also influencing local social norms--may enrich etiologic models and inform strategies to mitigate risk. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Economic growth, urbanization, globalization, and the risks of emerging infectious diseases in China: A review.

    Wu, Tong; Perrings, Charles; Kinzig, Ann; Collins, James P; Minteer, Ben A; Daszak, Peter

    2017-02-01

    Three interrelated world trends may be exacerbating emerging zoonotic risks: income growth, urbanization, and globalization. Income growth is associated with rising animal protein consumption in developing countries, which increases the conversion of wild lands to livestock production, and hence the probability of zoonotic emergence. Urbanization implies the greater concentration and connectedness of people, which increases the speed at which new infections are spread. Globalization-the closer integration of the world economy-has facilitated pathogen spread among countries through the growth of trade and travel. High-risk areas for the emergence and spread of infectious disease are where these three trends intersect with predisposing socioecological conditions including the presence of wild disease reservoirs, agricultural practices that increase contact between wildlife and livestock, and cultural practices that increase contact between humans, wildlife, and livestock. Such an intersection occurs in China, which has been a "cradle" of zoonoses from the Black Death to avian influenza and SARS. Disease management in China is thus critical to the mitigation of global zoonotic risks.

  13. Risk Assessment Method for Offshore Structure Based on Global Sensitivity Analysis

    Zou Tao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on global sensitivity analysis (GSA, this paper proposes a new risk assessment method for an offshore structure design. This method quantifies all the significances among random variables and their parameters at first. And by comparing the degree of importance, all minor factors would be negligible. Then, the global uncertainty analysis work would be simplified. Global uncertainty analysis (GUA is an effective way to study the complexity and randomness of natural events. Since field measured data and statistical results often have inevitable errors and uncertainties which lead to inaccurate prediction and analysis, the risk in the design stage of offshore structures caused by uncertainties in environmental loads, sea level, and marine corrosion must be taken into account. In this paper, the multivariate compound extreme value distribution model (MCEVD is applied to predict the extreme sea state of wave, current, and wind. The maximum structural stress and deformation of a Jacket platform are analyzed and compared with different design standards. The calculation result sufficiently demonstrates the new risk assessment method’s rationality and security.

  14. The global limits and population at risk of soil-transmitted helminth infections in 2010

    Pullan Rachel L

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Understanding the global limits of transmission of soil-transmitted helminth (STH species is essential for quantifying the population at-risk and the burden of disease. This paper aims to define these limits on the basis of environmental and socioeconomic factors, and additionally seeks to investigate the effects of urbanisation and economic development on STH transmission, and estimate numbers at-risk of infection with Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworm in 2010. Methods A total of 4,840 geo-referenced estimates of infection prevalence were abstracted from the Global Atlas of Helminth Infection and related to a range of environmental factors to delineate the biological limits of transmission. The relationship between STH transmission and urbanisation and economic development was investigated using high resolution population surfaces and country-level socioeconomic indicators, respectively. Based on the identified limits, the global population at risk of STH transmission in 2010 was estimated. Results High and low land surface temperature and extremely arid environments were found to limit STH transmission, with differential limits identified for each species. There was evidence that the prevalence of A. lumbricoides and of T. trichiura infection was statistically greater in peri-urban areas compared to urban and rural areas, whilst the prevalence of hookworm was highest in rural areas. At national levels, no clear socioeconomic correlates of transmission were identified, with the exception that little or no infection was observed for countries with a per capita gross domestic product greater than US$ 20,000. Globally in 2010, an estimated 5.3 billion people, including 1.0 billion school-aged children, lived in areas stable for transmission of at least one STH species, with 69% of these individuals living in Asia. A further 143 million (31.1 million school-aged children lived in areas of unstable

  15. Contribution of occupational risk factors to the global burden of disease - a summary of findings

    Fingerhut, M.; Driscoll, T.; Nelson, D.I.; Concha-Barrientos, M.; Punnett, L.; Pruss-Ustin, A.; Steenland, K.; Leigh, J.; Corvalan, C. [NIOSH, Cincinnati, OH (United States)

    2005-07-01

    The World Health Organization conducted a comparative risk assessment to ascertain the contributions of 26 risk factors to the global burden of disease. Five occupational risk factors accounted for an estimated 37% of back pain, 16% of hearing loss, 13% of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 11% of asthma, 9% of lung cancer, 8% of injuries, and 2% of leukemia worldwide. Virtually all cases of silicosis, asbestosis, and coal workers' pneumoconiosis were work-related. Contaminated sharps injuries accounted for 40% of hepatitis B, 40% of hepatitis C, and 4% of HIV/AlDS infections among health care workers. Data limitations, primarily in developing countries, prevented the inclusion of other major occupational risk factors. These selected occupational risks accounted for about 850,000 deaths and 24 million years of healthy life lost each year. The deaths due to these selected occupational risk factors constitute only 43% of the International Labour Organization's estimate of 2 million deaths worldwide due to work-related risks.

  16. The value of counting WHO-defined cardiovascular risk factors for death and disability in a national sample of adults with psychosis.

    Hahn, Lisa Anne; Mackinnon, Andrew; Foley, Debra L; Morgan, Vera A; Waterreus, Anna; Watts, Gerald F; Castle, David J; Liu, Dennis; Galletly, Cherrie A

    2017-04-01

    This study explored the prevalence and associations of eight WHO-defined CVD risk factors for death and disability in people with psychosis. The study included 1156 people aged 18-64years, diagnosed with psychosis. The 2009 World Health Organisation (WHO) Global Health Risks Report was used as a framework to determine the prevalence and number of eight key risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in men and women with psychosis. Differences in the number and type of risk factors by age and gender were investigated. Multi-predictor analysis was performed to identify associations between demographic factors, psychiatric diagnosis and accumulative CVD risk factors. Women had fewer CVD risk factors than men. The number of risk factors significantly decreased in association with single marital status, current employment and significantly increased with earning a higher income. People aged 35-49years and 50-64years had an average of 4 risk factors (SD 1.38 and 1.30); people aged 18-34years had an average of 3 risk factors (SD 1.30). Mean risk factors were higher in the middle age and older age groups (35-49years and 50-64years) compared with the younger age group (18-34years) (prisks. These were more common in men and rose with age, implying the necessity of close clinical monitoring. The most common risk factors should be targeted by lifestyle interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Yield risks in global maize markets: Historical evidence and projections in key regions of the world

    Nelson B. Villoria

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Simultaneous worldwide crop failures stemming from a more unstable climate may reduce the scope for international trade to compensate food shortages and stabilize food prices across the various regions of the world. Understanding the effects of changes in crop productivity on global markets requires knowledge about the extent to which crop yields may be systematically related across producing and consuming centers. This short communication contributes to this knowledge by investigating the potential changes in the strength of two key sources of supply risks in global maize markets: yield variance and cross-country yield correlation. We focus on the largest producing and consuming countries of the world. We capitalize on yield projections from the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison project. Exploratory analysis of the skill of the underlying GGCMI models in reproducing key moments of the distribution of observed yields reveals that they overstate observed variances but faithfully reproduce observed patterns of cross-country correlations. We find no evidence of an increase in the degree of cross-country dependency of maize yields. We also find a higher incidence of what would be considered extremely low maize yields by present-time standards stemming from the projected downward trend in yields levels toward mid-century. The weak dependency of maize yields across countries, an the possibility of reducing the higher incidence of extremes through policies aimed to reverse the climate-induced downward trends in yields, suggest that international trade can become a valuable tool to ameliorate the effects of more unstable crop yields. Keywords: Extremely low yields, Maize markets, Food prices, Agricultural yields, Systemic risk in agriculture, Global agriculture, AgMIP, Global gridded crop model intercomparison

  18. Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management

    Carrão, Hugo; Naumann, Gustavo; Barbosa, Paulo

    2018-03-01

    Projections of drought hazard ( dH) changes have been mapped from five bias-corrected climate models and analyzed at the global level under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The motivation for this study is the observation that drought risk is increasing globally and the effective regulation of prevention and adaptation measures depends on dH magnitude and its distribution for the future. Based on the Weighted Anomaly of Standardized Precipitation index, dH changes have been assessed for mid-(2021-2050) and late-century (2071-2099). With a few exceptions, results show a likely increase in global dH between the historical years (1971-2000) and both future time periods under all RCPs. Notwithstanding this worsening trend, it was found that projections of dH changes for most regions are neither robust nor significant in the near-future. By the end of the century, greater increases are projected for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcing. Under RCP8.5, statistically significant dH changes emerge for global Mediterranean ecosystems and the Amazon region, which are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. Taken together, projections of dH changes point towards two dilemmas: (1) in the near-term, stake-holders are left worrying about projected increasing dH over large regions, but lack of actionable model agreement to take effective decisions related to local prevention and adaptation initiatives; (2) in the long-term, models demonstrate remarkable agreement, but stake-holders lack actionable knowledge to manage potential impacts far distant from actual human-dominated environments. We conclude that the major challenge for risk management is not to adapt human populations or their activities to dH changes, but to progress on global initiatives that mitigate their impacts in the whole carbon cycle by late-century.

  19. A New Breed of Database System: Volcano Global Risk Identification and Analysis Project (VOGRIPA)

    Crosweller, H. S.; Sparks, R. S.; Siebert, L.

    2009-12-01

    VOGRIPA originated as part of the Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP) that is being co-ordinated from the Earth Institute of Columbia University under the auspices of the United Nations and World Bank. GRIP is a five-year programme aiming at improving global knowledge about risk from natural hazards and is part of the international response to the catastrophic 2004 Asian tsunami. VOGRIPA is also a formal IAVCEI project. The objectives of VOGRIPA are to create a global database of volcanic activity, hazards and vulnerability information that can be analysed to identify locations at high risk from volcanism, gaps in knowledge about hazards and risk, and will allow scientists and disaster managers at specific locations to analyse risk within a global context of systematic information. It is this added scope of risk and vulnerability as well as hazard which sets VOGRIPA apart from most previous databases. The University of Bristol is the central coordinating centre for the project, which is an international partnership including the Smithsonian Institution, the Geological Survey of Japan, the Earth Observatory of Singapore (Chris Newhall), the British Geological Survey, the University of Buffalo (SUNY) and Munich Re. The partnership is intended to grow and any individuals or institutions who are able to contribute resources to VOGRIPA objectives are welcome to participate. Work has already begun (funded principally by Munich Re) on populating a database of large magnitude explosive eruptions reaching back to the Quaternary, with extreme-value statistics being used to evaluate the magnitude-frequency relationship of such events, and also an assessment of how the quality of records affect the results. The following 4 years of funding from the European Research Council for VOGRIPA will be used to establish further international collaborations in order to develop different aspects of the database, with the data being accessible online once it is sufficiently

  20. Communicating global cardiovascular risk: are icon arrays better than numerical estimates in improving understanding, recall and perception of risk?

    Ruiz, Jorge G; Andrade, Allen D; Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Anam, Ramanakumar; Rodriguez, Remberto; Sharit, Joseph

    2013-12-01

    Experts recommend that adults have their global cardiovascular risk assessed. We investigated whether icon arrays increase understanding, recall, perception of CVR, and behavioral intent as compared with numerical information. Male outpatient veterans, at an intermediate to high cardiovascular risk participated in a randomized controlled trial of a computer tutorial presenting individualized risk. Message format was presented in 3 formats: percentages, frequencies, and frequencies with icon arrays. We assessed understanding immediately (T1) and recall at 20 min (T2) and 2 weeks (T3) after the intervention. We assessed perceptions of importance/seriousness, intent to adhere, and self-efficacy at T1. Self-reported adherence was assessed at T3. One-hundred and twenty male veterans participated. Age, education, race, health literacy and numeracy were comparable at baseline. There were no differences in understanding at T1 [p = .31] and recall at T3 [p = .10]. Accuracy was inferior with frequencies with icon arrays than percentages or frequencies at T2 [p ≤ .001]. There were no differences in perception of seriousness and importance for heart disease, behavioral intent, self-efficacy, actual adherence and satisfaction. Icon arrays may impair short-term recall of CVR. Icon arrays will not necessarily result in better understanding and recall of medical risk in all patients. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  1. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

    2016-10-08

    The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56

  2. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

    Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Alexander, Lily; Anderson, H Ross; Bachman, Victoria F; Biryukov, Stan; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Casey, Daniel; Coates, Matthew M; Cohen, Aaron; Delwiche, Kristen; Estep, Kara; Frostad, Joseph J; Astha, K C; Kyu, Hmwe H; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Ng, Marie; Slepak, Erica Leigh; Thomas, Bernadette A; Wagner, Joseph; Aasvang, Gunn Marit; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Ayse; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abera, Semaw F; Aboyans, Victor; Abraham, Biju; Abraham, Jerry Puthenpurakal; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E; Aburto, Tania C; Achoki, Tom; Adelekan, Ademola; Adofo, Koranteng; Adou, Arsène K; Adsuar, José C; Afshin, Ashkan; Agardh, Emilie E; Al Khabouri, Mazin J; Al Lami, Faris H; Alam, Sayed Saidul; Alasfoor, Deena; Albittar, Mohammed I; Alegretti, Miguel A; Aleman, Alicia V; Alemu, Zewdie A; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Alhabib, Samia; Ali, Raghib; Ali, Mohammed K; Alla, François; Allebeck, Peter; Allen, Peter J; Alsharif, Ubai; Alvarez, Elena; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amankwaa, Adansi A; Amare, Azmeraw T; Ameh, Emmanuel A; Ameli, Omid; Amini, Heresh; Ammar, Walid; Anderson, Benjamin O; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Anwari, Palwasha; Argeseanu Cunningham, Solveig; Arnlöv, Johan; Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic; Artaman, Al; Asghar, Rana J; Assadi, Reza; Atkins, Lydia S; Atkinson, Charles; Avila, Marco A; Awuah, Baffour; Badawi, Alaa; Bahit, Maria C; Bakfalouni, Talal; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Balalla, Shivanthi; Balu, Ravi Kumar; Banerjee, Amitava; Barber, Ryan M; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L; Barquera, Simon; Barregard, Lars; Barrero, Lope H; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Basto-Abreu, Ana C; Basu, Arindam; Basu, Sanjay; Basulaiman, Mohammed O; Batis Ruvalcaba, Carolina; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Bekele, Tolesa; Bell, Michelle L; Benjet, Corina; Bennett, Derrick A; Benzian, Habib; Bernabé, Eduardo; Beyene, Tariku J; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhalla, Ashish; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Bikbov, Boris; Bin Abdulhak, Aref A; Blore, Jed D; Blyth, Fiona M; Bohensky, Megan A; Bora Başara, Berrak; Borges, Guilherme; Bornstein, Natan M; Bose, Dipan; Boufous, Soufiane; Bourne, Rupert R; Brainin, Michael; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas J; Brenner, Hermann; Briggs, Adam D M; Broday, David M; Brooks, Peter M; Bruce, Nigel G; Brugha, Traolach S; Brunekreef, Bert; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Bui, Linh N; Bukhman, Gene; Bulloch, Andrew G; Burch, Michael; Burney, Peter G J; Campos-Nonato, Ismael R; Campuzano, Julio C; Cantoral, Alejandra J; Caravanos, Jack; Cárdenas, Rosario; Cardis, Elisabeth; Carpenter, David O; Caso, Valeria; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A; Castro, Ruben E; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Cavalleri, Fiorella; Çavlin, Alanur; Chadha, Vineet K; Chang, Jung-Chen; Charlson, Fiona J; Chen, Honglei; Chen, Wanqing; Chen, Zhengming; Chiang, Peggy P; Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christophi, Costas A; Chuang, Ting-Wu; Chugh, Sumeet S; Cirillo, Massimo; Claßen, Thomas K D; Colistro, Valentina; Colomar, Mercedes; Colquhoun, Samantha M; Contreras, Alejandra G; Cooper, Cyrus; Cooperrider, Kimberly; Cooper, Leslie T; Coresh, Josef; Courville, Karen J; Criqui, Michael H; Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia; Damsere-Derry, James; Danawi, Hadi; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Dargan, Paul I; Davis, Adrian; Davitoiu, Dragos V; Dayama, Anand; de Castro, E Filipa; De la Cruz-Góngora, Vanessa; De Leo, Diego; de Lima, Graça; Degenhardt, Louisa; del Pozo-Cruz, Borja; Dellavalle, Robert P; Deribe, Kebede; Derrett, Sarah; Des Jarlais, Don C; Dessalegn, Muluken; deVeber, Gabrielle A; Devries, Karen M; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Dherani, Mukesh K; Dicker, Daniel; Ding, Eric L; Dokova, Klara; Dorsey, E Ray; Driscoll, Tim R; Duan, Leilei; Durrani, Adnan M; Ebel, Beth E; Ellenbogen, Richard G; Elshrek, Yousef M; Endres, Matthias; Ermakov, Sergey P; Erskine, Holly E; Eshrati, Babak; Esteghamati, Alireza; Fahimi, Saman; Faraon, Emerito Jose A; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fay, Derek F J; Feigin, Valery L; Feigl, Andrea B; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Ferrari, Alize J; Ferri, Cleusa P; Flaxman, Abraham D; Fleming, Thomas D; Foigt, Nataliya; Foreman, Kyle J; Paleo, Urbano Fra; Franklin, Richard C; Gabbe, Belinda; Gaffikin, Lynne; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Gamkrelidze, Amiran; Gankpé, Fortuné G; Gansevoort, Ron T; García-Guerra, Francisco A; Gasana, Evariste; Geleijnse, Johanna M; Gessner, Bradford D; Gething, Pete; Gibney, Katherine B; Gillum, Richard F; Ginawi, Ibrahim A M; Giroud, Maurice; Giussani, Giorgia; Goenka, Shifalika; Goginashvili, Ketevan; Gomez Dantes, Hector; Gona, Philimon; Gonzalez de Cosio, Teresita; González-Castell, Dinorah; Gotay, Carolyn C; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N; Guerrant, Richard L; Gugnani, Harish C; Guillemin, Francis; Gunnell, David; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gutiérrez, Reyna A; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hagan, Holly; Hagstromer, Maria; Halasa, Yara A; Hamadeh, Randah R; Hammami, Mouhanad; Hankey, Graeme J; Hao, Yuantao; Harb, Hilda L; Haregu, Tilahun Nigatu; Haro, Josep Maria; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hay, Simon I; Hedayati, Mohammad T; Heredia-Pi, Ileana B; Hernandez, Lucia; Heuton, Kyle R; Heydarpour, Pouria; Hijar, Martha; Hoek, Hans W; Hoffman, Howard J; Hornberger, John C; Hosgood, H Dean; Hoy, Damian G; Hsairi, Mohamed; Hu, Guoqing; Hu, Howard; Huang, Cheng; Huang, John J; Hubbell, Bryan J; Huiart, Laetitia; Husseini, Abdullatif; Iannarone, Marissa L; Iburg, Kim M; Idrisov, Bulat T; Ikeda, Nayu; Innos, Kaire; Inoue, Manami; Islami, Farhad; Ismayilova, Samaya; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Jansen, Henrica A; Jarvis, Deborah L; Jassal, Simerjot K; Jauregui, Alejandra; Jayaraman, Sudha; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jensen, Paul N; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Fan; Jiang, Guohong; Jiang, Ying; Jonas, Jost B; Juel, Knud; Kan, Haidong; Kany Roseline, Sidibe S; Karam, Nadim E; Karch, André; Karema, Corine K; Karthikeyan, Ganesan; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Kazi, Dhruv S; Kemp, Andrew H; Kengne, Andre P; Keren, Andre; Khader, Yousef S; Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan; Khan, Ejaz A; Khang, Young-Ho; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Khonelidze, Irma; Kieling, Christian; Kim, Daniel; Kim, Sungroul; Kim, Yunjin; Kimokoti, Ruth W; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kinge, Jonas M; Kissela, Brett M; Kivipelto, Miia; Knibbs, Luke D; Knudsen, Ann Kristin; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kose, M Rifat; Kosen, Soewarta; Kraemer, Alexander; Kravchenko, Michael; Krishnaswami, Sanjay; Kromhout, Hans; Ku, Tiffany; Kuate Defo, Barthelemy; Kucuk Bicer, Burcu; Kuipers, Ernst J; Kulkarni, Chanda; Kulkarni, Veena S; Kumar, G Anil; Kwan, Gene F; Lai, Taavi; Lakshmana Balaji, Arjun; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lallukka, Tea; Lam, Hilton; Lan, Qing; Lansingh, Van C; Larson, Heidi J; Larsson, Anders; Laryea, Dennis O; Lavados, Pablo M; Lawrynowicz, Alicia E; Leasher, Janet L; Lee, Jong-Tae; Leigh, James; Leung, Ricky; Levi, Miriam; Li, Yichong; Li, Yongmei; Liang, Juan; Liang, Xiaofeng; Lim, Stephen S; Lindsay, M Patrice; Lipshultz, Steven E; Liu, Shiwei; Liu, Yang; Lloyd, Belinda K; Logroscino, Giancarlo; London, Stephanie J; Lopez, Nancy; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lozano, Rafael; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Ma, Jixiang; Ma, Stefan; Machado, Vasco M P; MacIntyre, Michael F; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Mahdi, Abbas A; Majdan, Marek; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mangalam, Srikanth; Mapoma, Christopher C; Marape, Marape; Marcenes, Wagner; Margolis, David J; Margono, Christopher; Marks, Guy B; Martin, Randall V; Marzan, Melvin B; Mashal, Mohammad T; Masiye, Felix; Mason-Jones, Amanda J; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Matzopoulos, Richard; Mayosi, Bongani M; Mazorodze, Tasara T; McKay, Abigail C; McKee, Martin; McLain, Abigail; Meaney, Peter A; Medina, Catalina; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola; Mekonnen, Wubegzier; Melaku, Yohannes A; Meltzer, Michele; Memish, Ziad A; Mendoza, Walter; Mensah, George A; Meretoja, Atte; Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary; Micha, Renata; Miller, Ted R; Mills, Edward J; Misganaw, Awoke; Mishra, Santosh; Mohamed Ibrahim, Norlinah; Mohammad, Karzan A; Mokdad, Ali H; Mola, Glen L; Monasta, Lorenzo; Montañez Hernandez, Julio C; Montico, Marcella; Moore, Ami R; Morawska, Lidia; Mori, Rintaro; Moschandreas, Joanna; Moturi, Wilkister N; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Mueller, Ulrich O; Mukaigawara, Mitsuru; Mullany, Erin C; Murthy, Kinnari S; Naghavi, Mohsen; Nahas, Ziad; Naheed, Aliya; Naidoo, Kovin S; Naldi, Luigi; Nand, Devina; Nangia, Vinay; Narayan, K M Venkat; Nash, Denis; Neal, Bruce; Nejjari, Chakib; Neupane, Sudan P; Newton, Charles R; Ngalesoni, Frida N; Ngirabega, Jean de Dieu; Nguyen, Grant; Nguyen, Nhung T; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J; Nisar, Muhammad I; Nogueira, José R; Nolla, Joan M; Nolte, Sandra; Norheim, Ole F; Norman, Rosana E; Norrving, Bo; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Oh, In-Hwan; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Olusanya, Bolajoko O; Omer, Saad B; Opio, John Nelson; Orozco, Ricardo; Pagcatipunan, Rodolfo S; Pain, Amanda W; Pandian, Jeyaraj D; Panelo, Carlo Irwin A; Papachristou, Christina; Park, Eun-Kee; Parry, Charles D; Paternina Caicedo, Angel J; Patten, Scott B; Paul, Vinod K; Pavlin, Boris I; Pearce, Neil; Pedraza, Lilia S; Pedroza, Andrea; Pejin Stokic, Ljiljana; Pekericli, Ayfer; Pereira, David M; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio; Perez-Ruiz, Fernando; Perico, Norberto; Perry, Samuel A L; Pervaiz, Aslam; Pesudovs, Konrad; Peterson, Carrie B; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael R; Phua, Hwee Pin; Plass, Dietrich; Poenaru, Dan; Polanczyk, Guilherme V; Polinder, Suzanne; Pond, Constance D; Pope, C Arden; Pope, Daniel; Popova, Svetlana; Pourmalek, Farshad; Powles, John; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Prasad, Noela M; Qato, Dima M; Quezada, Amado D; Quistberg, D Alex A; Racapé, Lionel; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi, Kazem; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Raju, Murugesan; Rakovac, Ivo; Rana, Saleem M; Rao, Mayuree; Razavi, Homie; Reddy, K Srinath; Refaat, Amany H; Rehm, Jürgen; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Ribeiro, Antonio L; Riccio, Patricia M; Richardson, Lee; Riederer, Anne; Robinson, Margaret; Roca, Anna; Rodriguez, Alina; Rojas-Rueda, David; Romieu, Isabelle; Ronfani, Luca; Room, Robin; Roy, Nobhojit; Ruhago, George M; Rushton, Lesley; Sabin, Nsanzimana; Sacco, Ralph L; Saha, Sukanta; Sahathevan, Ramesh; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali; Salomon, Joshua A; Salvo, Deborah; Sampson, Uchechukwu K; Sanabria, Juan R; Sanchez, Luz Maria; Sánchez-Pimienta, Tania G; Sanchez-Riera, Lidia; Sandar, Logan; Santos, Itamar S; Sapkota, Amir; Satpathy, Maheswar; Saunders, James E; Sawhney, Monika; Saylan, Mete I; Scarborough, Peter; Schmidt, Jürgen C; Schneider, Ione J C; Schöttker, Ben; Schwebel, David C; Scott, James G; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Serdar, Berrin; Servan-Mori, Edson E; Shaddick, Gavin; Shahraz, Saeid; Levy, Teresa Shamah; Shangguan, Siyi; She, Jun; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Hwashin H; Shinohara, Yukito; Shiri, Rahman; Shishani, Kawkab; Shiue, Ivy; Sigfusdottir, Inga D; Silberberg, Donald H; Simard, Edgar P; Sindi, Shireen; Singh, Abhishek; Singh, Gitanjali M; Singh, Jasvinder A; Skirbekk, Vegard; Sliwa, Karen; Soljak, Michael; Soneji, Samir; Søreide, Kjetil; Soshnikov, Sergey; Sposato, Luciano A; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T; Stapelberg, Nicolas J C; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki; Steckling, Nadine; Stein, Dan J; Stein, Murray B; Stephens, Natalie; Stöckl, Heidi; Straif, Kurt; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Sturua, Lela; Sunguya, Bruno F; Swaminathan, Soumya; Swaroop, Mamta; Sykes, Bryan L; Tabb, Karen M; Takahashi, Ken; Talongwa, Roberto T; Tandon, Nikhil; Tanne, David; Tanner, Marcel; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Te Ao, Braden J; Teixeira, Carolina M; Téllez Rojo, Martha M; Terkawi, Abdullah S; Texcalac-Sangrador, José Luis; Thackway, Sarah V; Thomson, Blake; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L; Thrift, Amanda G; Thurston, George D; Tillmann, Taavi; Tobollik, Myriam; Tonelli, Marcello; Topouzis, Fotis; Towbin, Jeffrey A; Toyoshima, Hideaki; Traebert, Jefferson; Tran, Bach X; Trasande, Leonardo; Trillini, Matias; Trujillo, Ulises; Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala; Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis; Tuzcu, Emin Murat; Uchendu, Uche S; Ukwaja, Kingsley N; Uzun, Selen B; van de Vijver, Steven; Van Dingenen, Rita; van Gool, Coen H; van Os, Jim; Varakin, Yuri Y; Vasankari, Tommi J; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria N; Vavilala, Monica S; Veerman, Lennert J; Velasquez-Melendez, Gustavo; Venketasubramanian, N; Vijayakumar, Lakshmi; Villalpando, Salvador; Violante, Francesco S; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Wagner, Gregory R; Waller, Stephen G; Wallin, Mitchell T; Wan, Xia; Wang, Haidong; Wang, JianLi; Wang, Linhong; Wang, Wenzhi; Wang, Yanping; Warouw, Tati S; Watts, Charlotte H; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G; Werdecker, Andrea; Wessells, K Ryan; Westerman, Ronny; Whiteford, Harvey A; Wilkinson, James D; Williams, Hywel C; Williams, Thomas N; Woldeyohannes, Solomon M; Wolfe, Charles D A; Wong, John Q; Woolf, Anthony D; Wright, Jonathan L; Wurtz, Brittany; Xu, Gelin; Yan, Lijing L; Yang, Gonghuan; Yano, Yuichiro; Ye, Pengpeng; Yenesew, Muluken; Yentür, Gökalp K; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Younis, Mustafa Z; Younoussi, Zourkaleini; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaki, Maysaa E; Zhao, Yong; Zheng, Yingfeng; Zhou, Maigeng; Zhu, Jun; Zhu, Shankuan; Zou, Xiaonong; Zunt, Joseph R; Lopez, Alan D; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J

    2015-12-05

    The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval

  3. Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data

    Muis, S.; Güneralp, B.; Jongman, B.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Ward, P.J.

    2015-01-01

    An accurate understanding of flood risk and its drivers is crucial for effective risk management. Detailed risk projections, including uncertainties, are however rarely available, particularly in developing countries. This paper presents a method that integrates recent advances in global-scale

  4. Nonconsensual clinical trials: a foreseeable risk of offshoring under global corporatism.

    Spielman, Bethany

    2015-03-01

    This paper explores the connection of offshoring and outsourcing to nonconsensual global pharmaceutical trials in low-income countries. After discussing reasons why the topic of nonconsensual offshored clinical trials may be overlooked in bioethics literature, I suggest that when pharmaceutical corporations offshore clinical trials today, nonconsensual experiments are often foreseeable and not simply the result of aberrant ethical conduct by a few individuals. Offshoring of clinical trials is structured so that experiments can be presented as health care in a unique form of outsourcing from the host country to pharmaceutical corporations. Bioethicists' assessments of the risks and potential benefits of offshore corporate pharmaceutical trials should therefore systematically include not only the hoped for benefits and the risks of the experimental drug but also the risk that subjects will not have consented, as well as the broader international consequences of nonconsensual experimentation.

  5. Creating a spatially-explicit index: a method for assessing the global wildfire-water risk

    Robinne, François-Nicolas; Parisien, Marc-André; Flannigan, Mike; Miller, Carol; Bladon, Kevin D.

    2017-04-01

    The wildfire-water risk (WWR) has been defined as the potential for wildfires to adversely affect water resources that are important for downstream ecosystems and human water needs for adequate water quantity and quality, therefore compromising the security of their water supply. While tools and methods are numerous for watershed-scale risk analysis, the development of a toolbox for the large-scale evaluation of the wildfire risk to water security has only started recently. In order to provide managers and policy-makers with an adequate tool, we implemented a method for the spatial analysis of the global WWR based on the Driving forces-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) framework. This framework relies on the cause-and-effect relationships existing between the five categories of the DPSIR chain. As this approach heavily relies on data, we gathered an extensive set of spatial indicators relevant to fire-induced hydrological hazards and water consumption patterns by human and natural communities. When appropriate, we applied a hydrological routing function to our indicators in order to simulate downstream accumulation of potentially harmful material. Each indicator was then assigned a DPSIR category. We collapsed the information in each category using a principal component analysis in order to extract the most relevant pixel-based information provided by each spatial indicator. Finally, we compiled our five categories using an additive indexation process to produce a spatially-explicit index of the WWR. A thorough sensitivity analysis has been performed in order to understand the relationship between the final risk values and the spatial pattern of each category used during the indexation. For comparison purposes, we aggregated index scores by global hydrological regions, or hydrobelts, to get a sense of regional DPSIR specificities. This rather simple method does not necessitate the use of complex physical models and provides a scalable and efficient tool

  6. Modelling global distribution, risk and mitigation strategies of floating plastic pollution

    van Sebille, Erik; Wilcox, Chris; Sherman, Peter; Hardesty, Britta Denise; Lavender Law, Kara

    2016-04-01

    Microplastic debris floating at the ocean surface can harm marine life. Understanding the severity of this harm requires knowledge of plastic abundance and distributions. Dozens of expeditions measuring microplastics have been carried out since the 1970s, but they have primarily focused on the North Pacific and North Atlantic accumulation zones, with much sparser coverage elsewhere. Here, we use the largest dataset of microplastic measurements assembled to date to assess the confidence we can have in global estimates of microplastic abundance and mass. We use a rigorous statistical framework to standardise a global dataset of plastic marine debris measured using surface-trawling plankton nets and couple this with three different ocean circulation models to spatially interpolate the observations. Our estimates show that the accumulated number of microplastic particles in 2014 ranges from 15 to 51 trillion particles, weighing between 93 and 236 thousand metric tons. A large fraction of the uncertainty in these estimates comes from sparse sampling in coastal and Southern Hemisphere regions. We then use this global distribution of small floating plastic debris to map out where in the ocean the risk to marine life (in particular seabirds and plankton growth) is greatest, using a quantitative risk framework. We show that the largest risk occurs not necessarily in regions of high plastic concentration, but rather in regions of extensive foraging with medium-high plastic concentrations such as coastal upwelling regions and the Southern Ocean. Finally, we use the estimates of distribution to investigate where in the ocean plastic can most optimally be removed, assuming hypothetical clean-up booms following the ideas from The Ocean Cleanup project. We show that mitigation of the plastic problem can most aptly be done near coastlines, particularly in Asia, rather than in the centres of the gyres. Based on these results, we propose more focus on the coastal zones when

  7. Improved predictive value of GRACE risk score combined with platelet reactivity for 1-year cardiovascular risk in patients with acute coronary syndrome who underwent coronary stent implantation.

    Li, Shan; Liu, Hongbin; Liu, Jianfeng; Wang, Haijun

    2016-11-01

    Both high platelet reactivity (HPR) and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score have moderate predictive value for major adverse cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), whereas the prognostic significance of GRACE risk score combined with platelet function testing remains unclear. A total of 596 patients with non-ST elevation ACS who underwent PCI were enrolled. The P2Y 12 reaction unit (PRU) value was measured by VerifyNow P2Y 12 assay and GRACE score was calculated by GRACE risk 2.0 calculator. Patients were stratified by a pre-specified cutoff value of PRU 230 and GRACE score 140 to assess 1-year risk of cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), and stent thrombosis. Seventy-two (12.1%) patients developed CVD events during 1-year follow-up. Patients with CVD events had a higher PRU value (244.6 ± 50.9 vs. 203.7 ± 52.0, p risk independently. Compared to patients with normal platelet reactivity (NPR) and GRACE score risk (HR: 5.048; 95% CI: 2.268-11.237; p risk score yielded superior risk predictive capacity beyond GRACE score alone, which is shown by improved c-statistic value (0.871, p = 0.002) as well as net reclassification improvement (NRI 0.263, p risk of adverse CVD events. The combination of platelet function testing and GRACE score predicted 1-year CVD risk better.

  8. The global geographical overlap of aflatoxin and hepatitis C: Controlling risk factors for liver cancer worldwide

    Palliyaguru, Dushani L.; Wu, Felicia

    2012-01-01

    About 85% of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC, liver cancer) cases occur in low-income countries, where the risk factors of dietary aflatoxin exposure and chronic hepatitis B and C (HBV and HCV) viral infection are common. While studies have shown synergism between aflatoxin and HBV in causing HCC, much less is known about whether aflatoxin and HCV synergize similarly. From an exposure perspective, we examine whether there is a geographical overlap in populations worldwide exposed to high dietary aflatoxin levels and with high HCV prevalence. While HCV is one of the most important risk factors for HCC in high-income nations (where aflatoxin exposure is low), we find that HCV prevalence is much higher in Africa and Asia, where aflatoxin exposure is also high. However, within a given world region, there are some inconsistencies regarding exposure and cancer risk. Therefore, there is a need to control risk factors such as aflatoxin and hepatitis viruses in a cost-effective manner to prevent global HCC, while continuing to evaluate biological mechanisms by which these risk factors interact to increase HCC risk. PMID:23281740

  9. Of Malthus and Methuselah: does longevity treatment aggravate global catastrophic risks?

    Jebari, Karim

    2014-12-01

    Global catastrophic risk is a term that refers to the risk of the occurrence of an event that kills at least millions of people across several continents. While it has been argued by a number of scholars that one major potential risk comes from technology, the obscure nature of future technologies makes it difficult to utilize traditional probabilistic risk for the meaningful study of these risks. This article describes an alternative approach and applies it to a research program that has attracted a considerable amount of resources recently: namely longevity research. The aim of this research is to delay or reverse the ageing process. This article argues that this research program is much more risky or less beneficial than its proponents argue. In particular, they tend to underestimate the concerns associated with the potentially drastic population growth that longevity treatment could cause. The ethical benefit often ascribed to longevity treatment is that such treatment would add more subjective life-years that are worth living. However, in light of contemporary environmental problems, such an increase of the human population might be reckless. Drastically reducing fertility to reduce risks associated with environmental stress would make the benefits of such technology much less compelling.

  10. Of Malthus and Methuselah: does longevity treatment aggravate global catastrophic risks?

    Jebari, Karim

    2014-01-01

    Global catastrophic risk is a term that refers to the risk of the occurrence of an event that kills at least millions of people across several continents. While it has been argued by a number of scholars that one major potential risk comes from technology, the obscure nature of future technologies makes it difficult to utilize traditional probabilistic risk for the meaningful study of these risks. This article describes an alternative approach and applies it to a research program that has attracted a considerable amount of resources recently: namely longevity research. The aim of this research is to delay or reverse the ageing process. This article argues that this research program is much more risky or less beneficial than its proponents argue. In particular, they tend to underestimate the concerns associated with the potentially drastic population growth that longevity treatment could cause. The ethical benefit often ascribed to longevity treatment is that such treatment would add more subjective life-years that are worth living. However, in light of contemporary environmental problems, such an increase of the human population might be reckless. Drastically reducing fertility to reduce risks associated with environmental stress would make the benefits of such technology much less compelling. (invited comment)

  11. A CVD Diamond Detector for (n,a) Cross-Section Measurements

    Weiss, Christina; Griesmayer, Erich; Guerrero, Carlos

    A novel detector based on the chemical vapor deposition (CVD) diamond technology has been developed in the framework of this PhD, for the experimental determination of (n,a) cross-sections at the neutron time-of-flight facility n_TOF at CERN. The 59Ni(n,a)56Fe cross-section, which is relevant for astrophysical questions as well as for risk-assessment studies in nuclear technology, has been measured in order to validate the applicability of the detector for such experiments. The thesis is divided in four parts. In the introductory part the motivation for measuring (n,a) cross-sections, the experimental challenges for such measurements and the reasons for choosing the CVD diamond technology for the detector are given. This is followed by the presentation of the n_TOF facility, an introduction to neutron-induced nuclear reactions and a brief summary of the interaction of particles with matter. The CVD diamond technology and the relevant matters related to electronics are given as well in this first part of the t...

  12. Low-temperature graphene synthesis using microwave plasma CVD

    Yamada, Takatoshi; Kim, Jaeho; Ishihara, Masatou; Hasegawa, Masataka

    2013-01-01

    The graphene chemical vapour deposition (CVD) technique at substrate temperatures around 300 °C by a microwave plasma sustained by surface waves (surface wave plasma chemical vapour deposition, SWP-CVD) is discussed. A low-temperature, large-area and high-deposition-rate CVD process for graphene films was developed. It was found from Raman spectra that the deposited films on copper (Cu) substrates consisted of high-quality graphene flakes. The fabricated graphene transparent conductive electrode showed uniform optical transmittance and sheet resistance, which suggests the possibility of graphene for practical electrical and optoelectronic applications. It is intriguing that graphene was successfully deposited on aluminium (Al) substrates, for which we did not expect the catalytic effect to decompose hydrocarbon and hydrogen molecules. We developed a roll-to-roll SWP-CVD system for continuous graphene film deposition towards industrial mass production. A pair of winder and unwinder systems of Cu film was installed in the plasma CVD apparatus. Uniform Raman spectra were confirmed over the whole width of 297 mm of Cu films. We successfully transferred the deposited graphene onto PET films, and confirmed a transmittance of about 95% and a sheet resistance of less than 7 × 10 5 Ω/sq.

  13. Low-temperature graphene synthesis using microwave plasma CVD

    Yamada, Takatoshi; Kim, Jaeho; Ishihara, Masatou; Hasegawa, Masataka

    2013-02-01

    The graphene chemical vapour deposition (CVD) technique at substrate temperatures around 300 °C by a microwave plasma sustained by surface waves (surface wave plasma chemical vapour deposition, SWP-CVD) is discussed. A low-temperature, large-area and high-deposition-rate CVD process for graphene films was developed. It was found from Raman spectra that the deposited films on copper (Cu) substrates consisted of high-quality graphene flakes. The fabricated graphene transparent conductive electrode showed uniform optical transmittance and sheet resistance, which suggests the possibility of graphene for practical electrical and optoelectronic applications. It is intriguing that graphene was successfully deposited on aluminium (Al) substrates, for which we did not expect the catalytic effect to decompose hydrocarbon and hydrogen molecules. We developed a roll-to-roll SWP-CVD system for continuous graphene film deposition towards industrial mass production. A pair of winder and unwinder systems of Cu film was installed in the plasma CVD apparatus. Uniform Raman spectra were confirmed over the whole width of 297 mm of Cu films. We successfully transferred the deposited graphene onto PET films, and confirmed a transmittance of about 95% and a sheet resistance of less than 7 × 105 Ω/sq.

  14. Evaluation of CVD silicon carbide for synchrotron radiation mirrors

    Takacs, P.Z.

    1981-07-01

    Chemical vapor deposited silicon carbide (CVD SiC) is a recent addition to the list of materials suitable for use in the harsh environment of synchrotron radiation (SR) beam lines. SR mirrors for use at normal incidence must be ultrahigh vacuum compatible, must withstand intense x-ray irradiation without surface damage, must be capable of being polished to an extremely smooth surface finish, and must maintain surface figure under thermal loading. CVD SiC exceeds the performance of conventional optical materials in all these areas. It is, however, a relatively new optical material. Few manufacturers have experience in producing optical quality material, and few opticians have experience in figuring and polishing the material. The CVD material occurs in a variety of forms, sensitively dependent upon reaction chamber production conditions. We are evaluating samples of CVD SiC obtained commercially from various manufacturers, representing a range of deposition conditions, to determine which types of CVD material are most suitable for superpolishing. At the time of this writing, samples are being polished by several commercial vendors and surface finish characteristics are being evaluated by various analytical methods

  15. Test of radiation hardness of pcCVD detectors

    Schlemme, Steffen [GSI Helmholtzzentrum fuer Schwerionenforschung, Darmstadt (Germany); Technische Universitaet Darmstadt (Germany); Enders, Joachim [Technische Universitaet Darmstadt (Germany); Figuera, P.; Salamone, S. [LNS-INFN Catania (Italy); Fruehauf, J.; Kis, Mladen; Kratz, A.; Kurz, N.; Loechner, S.; Nociforo, Chiara; Schirru, Fabio; Szczepanczyk, B.; Traeger, M.; Visinka, R. [GSI Helmholtzzentrum fuer Schwerionenforschung, Darmstadt (Germany); Musumarra, A. [LNS-INFN Catania (Italy); University of Catania (Italy)

    2016-07-01

    The new in-flight separator Super-FRS is under construction at the Facility for Antiproton and Ion Research (FAIR, Darmstadt). Ion rates up to 3 x 10{sup 11} {sup 238}U/spill demand an adaption of detectors to a high radiation environment. A test experiment to investigate the radiation hardness of polycrystalline diamond detectors (pcCVD) was performed at the LNS-INFN in Catania using a {sup 12}C beam at 62 MeV/u and intensities of up to 1.5 pnA. The setup consisted of pcCVD strip detectors to measure the beam profile, a single crystal diamond detector to calibrate the ionisation chamber working in current mode as a beam intensity monitor and a pcCVD sample to be irradiated. The IC used was designed for FAIR and showed a stable counting rate allowing us to calibrate and perform beam intensity measurements with it. The total measured counts on the sample were 8.25 x 10{sup 11} counts/mm{sup 2} over a period of 60 hours. Digital waveforms of the pcCVD signals were taken with an oscilloscope and analysed. The results showed no change of the pcCVD signal properties during the entire irradiation.

  16. A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion

    Oakleaf, James R.; Kennedy, Christina M.; Baruch-Mordo, Sharon; West, Paul C.; Gerber, James S.; Jarvis, Larissa; Kiesecker, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2) and could result in half of the world’s biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth’s at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature. PMID:26445282

  17. The double burden of neoliberalism? Noncommunicable disease policies and the global political economy of risk.

    Glasgow, Sara; Schrecker, Ted

    2016-05-01

    The growing prevalence of NCDs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is now recognized as one of the major global health policy issues of the early 21st century. Current official approaches reflect ambivalence about how health policy should approach the social determinants of health identified by the WHO Commission on the topic that released its report in 2008, and in particular the role of macro-scale economic and social processes. Authoritative framing of options for NCD prevention in advance of the September, 2011 UN high-level meeting on NCDs arguably relied on a selective reading of the scientific (including social scientific) evidence, and foregrounded a limited number of risk factors defined in terms of individual behavior: tobacco use, unhealthy diet, alcohol (ab)use and physical inactivity. The effect was to reproduce at a transnational level the individualization of responsibility for health that characterizes most health promotion initiatives in high-income countries, ignoring both the limited control that many people have over their exposure to these risk factors and the contribution of macro-scale processes like trade liberalization and the marketing activities of transnational corporations to the global burden of NCDs. An alternative perspective focuses on "the inequitable distribution of power, money, and resources" described by the WHO Commission, and the ways in which policies that address those inequities can avoid unintentional incorporation of neoliberal constructions of risk and responsibility. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  18. The Risk Management Functions in the Conditions of Globalization: Case Study of the Republic of Serbia

    Zlatija Jelenković

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Globalization, which represents an important transmission mechanism of the crisis, has led to the necessity for controlling various risks of business, setting a new line of management in companies, regardless of the main business activity they are engaged in. The economic crisis in general, and especially the global financial crises (2007 and the present one led to bankruptcy, and thus to loss of funds of many businesses and individuals. Therefore, it was necessary, on the one hand, to ensure confidence in the financial system and to maintain its stability. On the other hand, the development of corporate governance and separation of functions of ownership and management insisted on the creation of functions that directly report to the owners of capital, such as risk management and internal audit. The value of this paper is in emphasizing the new management function and raising awareness of the scientific public and businesses about the need for introduction of risk management functions in order to facilitate effective management of enterprises, although the survey (2012-2015 has shown that the existence of legal obligations, in this regard penal policy, is the only thing that effectively establishes and promotes this area.

  19. A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion.

    James R Oakleaf

    Full Text Available A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2 and could result in half of the world's biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth's at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature.

  20. Assessment of Costs for a Global Climate Fund Against Public Sector Disaster Risks

    Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Mechler, Reinhard; Pflug, Georg; Williges, Keith

    2013-04-01

    National governments are key actors in managing climate variability and change, yet, many countries, faced with exhausted tax bases, high levels of indebtedness and limited donor assistance, have been unable to raise sufficient and timely capital to replace or repair damaged assets and restore livelihoods following major disasters exacerbating the impacts of disaster shocks on poverty and development. For weather extremes, which form a subset of the adaptation challenge and are supposed to increase in intensity and frequency with a changing climate, we conduct an assessment of the costs of managing and financing today's public sector risks on a global scale for more than 180 countries. A countries financial vulnerability is defined as a function of its financial resilience and its exposure to disaster risk. While disaster risk is estimated in terms of asset loss distributions based on catastrophe modeling approaches, financial resilience is operationalized as the public sector's ability to pay for relief to the affected population and support the reconstruction of affected assets and infrastructure for a given event. We consider governments financially vulnerable to disasters if they cannot access sufficient funding after a disaster to cover their liabilities. We operationalize this concept by the term resource gap, which we define the net loss associated with a disaster event after exhausting all possible ex-post and ex ante financing sources. Extending this approach for all possible disaster events, the risk that a resource gap will occur over a given time-span can be calculated for each country individually and dependent on the risk level different risk instruments may have to be applied. Furthermore, our estimates may inform decisions pertaining to a "climate insurance fund" absorbing "high level" country risks exceeding the ability of any given country to pay in the case of an extreme event. Our estimates relate to today's climate, yet we suggest that

  1. Physical activity and cardiovascular disease risk factors among ...

    Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) risk factors are increasing at an unprecedented rate in developing countries. However, fewer studies have evaluated the role of physical activity in preventing CVD in these countries. We assessed level physical activity and its relationship with CVD risk factors among young and ...

  2. Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors among Emerging Adults in College

    Abshire, Demetrius Alexander

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this dissertation was to examine factors associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among emerging adults in college aged 18-25 years. CVD risks that develop during this period often persist into adulthood making it an ideal time to target CVD prevention. The specific aims of this dissertation were to 1) explore perceptions…

  3. Relationships between body mass index, cardiovascular mortality, and risk factors: a report from the SCORE investigators.

    Dudina, Alexandra

    2011-10-01

    Although cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the biggest global cause of death, CVD mortality is falling in developed countries. There is concern that this trend may be offset by increasing levels of obesity.

  4. Assessment of global risk: a foundation for a new, better definition of hypertension.

    Giles, Thomas D

    2006-08-01

    The prevalence of individuals with increased blood pressure (BP) is growing. A greater understanding of the various pathogenetic mechanisms of hypertension and associated BP increases would provide a better strategy for preventing and treating this condition. Hypertension is strongly associated with other cardiovascular risk factors. Additionally, there is no threshold of BP >115/70 mm Hg that identifies cardiovascular risk (i.e., risk is linear and doubles for each 20/10-mm Hg BP rise). These insights have led a group of hypertension experts to propose a new definition of hypertension as "a progressive cardiovascular syndrome arising from complex and interrelated etiologies," which features early markers that are "often present before blood pressure elevation is sustained." Early cardiovascular markers include widened pulse pressure, left ventricular hypertrophy, increased arterial stiffness, endothelial dysfunction, and microalbuminuria. Importantly, antihypertensive treatment for patients with prehypertension (systolic BP of 120-139 mm Hg or diastolic BP of 80-89 mm Hg) has recently been shown to prevent the development of frank hypertension. This revision of the definition of hypertension and the need to assess BP levels in the context of global cardiovascular risk should lead to earlier detection of at-risk patients.

  5. Mapping Global Potential Risk of Mango Sudden Decline Disease Caused by Ceratocystis fimbriata

    Oliveira, Leonardo S. S.; Alfenas, Acelino C.; Neven, Lisa G.; Al-Sadi, Abdullah M.

    2016-01-01

    The Mango Sudden Decline (MSD), also referred to as Mango Wilt, is an important disease of mango in Brazil, Oman and Pakistan. This fungus is mainly disseminated by the mango bark beetle, Hypocryphalus mangiferae (Stebbing), by infected plant material, and the infested soils where it is able to survive for long periods. The best way to avoid losses due to MSD is to prevent its establishment in mango production areas. Our objectives in this study were to: (1) predict the global potential distribution of MSD, (2) identify the mango growing areas that are under potential risk of MSD establishment, and (3) identify climatic factors associated with MSD distribution. Occurrence records were collected from Brazil, Oman and Pakistan where the disease is currently known to occur in mango. We used the correlative maximum entropy based model (MaxEnt) algorithm to assess the global potential distribution of MSD. The MaxEnt model predicted suitable areas in countries where the disease does not already occur in mango, but where mango is grown. Among these areas are the largest mango producers in the world including India, China, Thailand, Indonesia, and Mexico. The mean annual temperature, precipitation of coldest quarter, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of driest month variables contributed most to the potential distribution of MSD disease. The mango bark beetle vector is known to occur beyond the locations where MSD currently exists and where the model predicted suitable areas, thus showing a high likelihood for disease establishment in areas predicted by our model. Our study is the first to map the potential risk of MSD establishment on a global scale. This information can be used in designing strategies to prevent introduction and establishment of MSD disease, and in preparation of efficient pest risk assessments and monitoring programs. PMID:27415625

  6. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

    2017-09-16

    The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124·1 million

  7. Ecological risk Evaluation and Green Infrastructure planning for coping with global climate change, a case study of Shanghai, China

    Li, Pengyao; Xiao, He; Li, Xiang; Hu, Wenhao; Gu, Shoubai; Yu, Zhenrong

    2018-01-01

    Coping with various ecological risks caused by extreme weather events of global climate change has become an important issue in regional planning, and storm water management for sustainable development. In this paper, taking Shanghai, China as a case study, four potential ecological risks were identified including flood disaster, sea-source disaster, urban heat island effect, and land subsidence. Based on spatial database, the spatial variation of these four ecological risks was evaluated, and the planning area was divided into seven responding regions with different green infrastructure strategy. The methodology developed in this study combining ecological risk evaluation with spatial regionalization planning could contribute to coping with global climate change.

  8. Bank Funding Structures and Risk; Evidence From the Global Financial Crisis

    Pablo Federico; Francisco F. Vazquez

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyzes the evolution of bank funding structures in the run up to the global financial crisis and studies the implications for financial stability, exploiting a bank-level dataset that covers about 11,000 banks in the U.S. and Europe during 2001?09. The results show that banks with weaker structural liquidity and higher leverage in the pre-crisis period were more likely to fail afterward. The likelihood of bank failure also increases with bank risk-taking. In the cross-section, th...

  9. Adhesion of non-selective CVD tungsten to silicon dioxide

    Woodruff, D.W.; Wilson, R.H.; Sanchez-Martinez, R.A.

    1986-01-01

    Adhesion of non-selective, CVD tungsten to silicon dioxide is a critical issue in the development of tungsten as a metalization for VLSI circuitry. Without special adhesion promoters, tungsten deposited from WF/sub 6/ and H/sub 2/ has typically failed a standard tape test over all types of silicon oxides and nitrides. The reasons for failure of thin films, and CVD tungsten in particular are explored along with standard techniques for improving adhesion of thin films. Experiments are reported which include a number of sputtered metals as adhesion promoters, as well as chemical and plasma treatment of the oxide surface. Sputtered molybdenum is clearly the superior adhesion promoting layer from these tests. Traditional adhesion layers such as chromium or titanium failed as adhesion layers for CVD tungsten possibly due to chemical reactions between the WF/sub 6/ and Cr or Ti

  10. The formation of tritium permeation barriers by CVD

    Forcey, K.S.; Perujo, A.; Reiter, F.; Lolli-Ceroni, P.L.

    1993-01-01

    The effectiveness as permeation barriers of the following CVD coatings have been investigated: TiC (1 to 2 μm in thickness); a bi-layer of TiN on TiC (3 μm total thickness) and CVD Al 2 O 3 on a TiN/TiC bi-layer. The substrate materials were TZM (a Mo alloy) and 316L stainless steel in the form of discs of diameter 48 mm and thickness 0.1 or 1 mm. Permeation measurements were performed in the temperature range 515-742 K using deuterium at pressures in the range 1-50 kPa. CVD layers were shown to form reasonably effective permeation barriers. At a temperature of 673 K TiC is around 6000 times less permeable to deuterium than 316L stainless steel. (orig.)

  11. An evolutionary game model for behavioral gambit of loyalists: Global awareness and risk-aversion

    Alfinito, E.; Barra, A.; Beccaria, M.; Fachechi, A.; Macorini, G.

    2018-02-01

    We study the phase diagram of a minority game where three classes of agents are present. Two types of agents play a risk-loving game that we model by the standard Snowdrift Game. The behaviour of the third type of agents is coded by indifference with respect to the game at all: their dynamics is designed to account for risk-aversion as an innovative behavioral gambit. From this point of view, the choice of this solitary strategy is enhanced when innovation starts, while is depressed when it becomes the majority option. This implies that the payoff matrix of the game becomes dependent on the global awareness of the agents measured by the relevance of the population of the indifferent players. The resulting dynamics is nontrivial with different kinds of phase transition depending on a few model parameters. The phase diagram is studied on regular as well as complex networks.

  12. Globalization of pediatric transplantation: The risk of tuberculosis or not tuberculosis.

    McCulloch, Mignon; Lin, Philana Ling

    2017-05-01

    The risk of TB among pediatric SOT recipients increases as the globalization of medical care continues to broaden. Unlike adults, children and especially infants are more susceptible to TB as a complication after transplantation. Little data exist regarding the true incidence of TB and the optimal risk-based management of this very vulnerable population. Here, we highlight the theoretical and practical issues that complicate the management of these patients and pose some questions that should be addressed when managing these patients. More data are needed to provide optimal guidance of the best diagnostic and management practices to this unique population. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Graphene Synthesis by Plasma-Enhanced CVD Growth with Ethanol

    Campo, T.; Cotto, M.; Márquez, F.; Elizalde, E.; Morant, C.

    2016-01-01

    A modified route to synthesize graphene flakes is proposed using the Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) technique, by using copper substrates as supports. The carbon source used was ethanol, the synthesis temperature was 950°C and the pressure was controlled along the whole process. In this CVD synthesis process the incorporation of the carbon source was produced at low pressure and 950°C inducing the appearance of a plasma blue flash inside the quartz tube. Apparently, the presence of this plas...

  14. Correlation of CVD Diamond Electron Emission with Film Properties

    Bozeman, S. P.; Baumann, P. K.; Ward, B. L.; Nemanich, R. J.; Dreifus, D. L.

    1996-03-01

    Electron field emission from metals is affected by surface morphology and the properties of any dielectric coating. Recent results have demonstrated low field electron emission from p-type diamond, and photoemission measurements have identified surface treatments that result in a negative electron affinity (NEA). In this study, the field emission from diamond is correlated with surface treatment, surface roughness, and film properties (doping and defects). Electron emission measurements are reported on diamond films synthesized by plasma CVD. Ultraviolet photoemission spectroscopy indicates that the CVD films exhibit a NEA after exposure to hydrogen plasma. Field emission current-voltage measurements indicate "threshold voltages" ranging from approximately 20 to 100 V/micron.

  15. Radiation tolerance of CVD diamond detectors for pions and protons

    Adam, W.; Berdermann, E.; Bergonzo, P.; Bertuccio, G.; Bogani, F.; Borchi, E.; Brambilla, A.; Bruzzi, M.; Colledani, C.; Conway, J.; D' Angelo, P.; Dabrowski, W.; Delpierre, P.; Deneuville, A.; Dulinski, W.; Eijk, B. van; Fallou, A.; Fizzotti, F.; Foulon, F.; Friedl, M.; Gan, K.K.; Gheeraert, E.; Hallewell, G.; Han, S.; Hartjes, F. E-mail: f.hartjes@nikhef.nl; Hrubec, J.; Husson, D.; Kagan, H.; Kania, D.; Kaplon, J.; Kass, R.; Koeth, T.; Krammer, M.; Logiudice, A.; Lu, R.; Mac Lynne, L.; Manfredotti, C.; Meier, D.; Mishina, M.; Moroni, L.; Noomen, J.; Oh, A.; Pan, L.S.; Pernicka, M.; Peitz, A.; Perera, L.; Pirollo, S.; Procario, M.; Riester, J.L.; Roe, S.; Rousseau, L.; Rudge, A.; Russ, J.; Sala, S.; Sampietro, M.; Schnetzer, S.; Sciortino, S.; Stelzer, H.; Stone, R.; Suter, B.; Tapper, R.J.; Tesarek, R.; Trischuk, W.; Tromson, D.; Vittone, E.; Walsh, A.M.; Wedenig, R.; Weilhammer, P.; Wetstein, M.; White, C.; Zeuner, W.; Zoeller, M

    2002-01-11

    The paper gives new results on the radiation tolerance of CVD diamond for irradiation with 300 MeV/c pions and 24 GeV/c protons. The measured charge signal spectrum is compared at several irradiation levels with the spectrum calculated by a model. Irradiation by particles causes damage leading to a decrease of the charge signal. However, both the measurements and the outcome from the model show that for tracker applications this drawback is at least partly counterbalanced by a narrowing of the distribution curve of the charge signal. As a result, the efficiency of a CVD diamond tracker is less affected by irradiation than the mean charge signal.

  16. Radiation tolerance of CVD diamond detectors for pions and protons

    Adam, W.; Berdermann, E.; Bergonzo, P.; Bertuccio, G.; Bogani, F.; Borchi, E.; Brambilla, A.; Bruzzi, M.; Colledani, C.; Conway, J.; D'Angelo, P.; Dabrowski, W.; Delpierre, P.; Deneuville, A.; Dulinski, W.; van Eijk, B.; Fallou, A.; Fizzotti, F.; Foulon, F.; Friedl, M.; Gan, K. K.; Gheeraert, E.; Hallewell, G.; Han, S.; Hartjes, F.; Hrubec, J.; Husson, D.; Kagan, H.; Kania, D.; Kaplon, J.; Kass, R.; Koeth, T.; Krammer, M.; Logiudice, A.; Lu, R.; mac Lynne, L.; Manfredotti, C.; Meier, D.; Mishina, M.; Moroni, L.; Noomen, J.; Oh, A.; Pan, L. S.; Pernicka, M.; Peitz, A.; Perera, L.; Pirollo, S.; Procario, M.; Riester, J. L.; Roe, S.; Rousseau, L.; Rudge, A.; Russ, J.; Sala, S.; Sampietro, M.; Schnetzer, S.; Sciortino, S.; Stelzer, H.; Stone, R.; Suter, B.; Tapper, R. J.; Tesarek, R.; Trischuk, W.; Tromson, D.; Vittone, E.; Walsh, A. M.; Wedenig, R.; Weilhammer, P.; Wetstein, M.; White, C.; Zeuner, W.; Zoeller, M.

    2002-01-01

    The paper gives new results on the radiation tolerance of CVD diamond for irradiation with 300 MeV/ c pions and 24 GeV/ c protons. The measured charge signal spectrum is compared at several irradiation levels with the spectrum calculated by a model. Irradiation by particles causes damage leading to a decrease of the charge signal. However, both the measurements and the outcome from the model show that for tracker applications this drawback is at least partly counterbalanced by a narrowing of the distribution curve of the charge signal. As a result, the efficiency of a CVD diamond tracker is less affected by irradiation than the mean charge signal.

  17. Application of Cat-CVD for ULSI technology

    Akasaka, Yoichi

    2008-01-01

    The ULSI technology has been following Moore's law into the sub-100 nm era, although several challenging technical issues must be resolved. This paper describes possible application of Cat-CVD for ULSI technology beyond the 45 nm node. Especially, Cat-CVD SiN film for a transistor gate sidewall and/or a pre-metallic liner layer, and removal of photo resist (ash) by Cat-induced hydrogen atoms in the interconnect structure with an extreme low-k material are mainly discussed

  18. Radiation tolerance of CVD diamond detectors for pions and protons

    Adam, W.; Berdermann, E.; Bergonzo, P.; Bertuccio, G.; Bogani, F.; Borchi, E.; Brambilla, A.; Bruzzi, M.; Colledani, C.; Conway, J.; D'Angelo, P.; Dabrowski, W.; Delpierre, P.; Deneuville, A.; Dulinski, W.; Eijk, B. van; Fallou, A.; Fizzotti, F.; Foulon, F.; Friedl, M.; Gan, K.K.; Gheeraert, E.; Hallewell, G.; Han, S.; Hartjes, F.; Hrubec, J.; Husson, D.; Kagan, H.; Kania, D.; Kaplon, J.; Kass, R.; Koeth, T.; Krammer, M.; Logiudice, A.; Lu, R.; Mac Lynne, L.; Manfredotti, C.; Meier, D.; Mishina, M.; Moroni, L.; Noomen, J.; Oh, A.; Pan, L.S.; Pernicka, M.; Peitz, A.; Perera, L.; Pirollo, S.; Procario, M.; Riester, J.L.; Roe, S.; Rousseau, L.; Rudge, A.; Russ, J.; Sala, S.; Sampietro, M.; Schnetzer, S.; Sciortino, S.; Stelzer, H.; Stone, R.; Suter, B.; Tapper, R.J.; Tesarek, R.; Trischuk, W.; Tromson, D.; Vittone, E.; Walsh, A.M.; Wedenig, R.; Weilhammer, P.; Wetstein, M.; White, C.; Zeuner, W.; Zoeller, M.

    2002-01-01

    The paper gives new results on the radiation tolerance of CVD diamond for irradiation with 300 MeV/c pions and 24 GeV/c protons. The measured charge signal spectrum is compared at several irradiation levels with the spectrum calculated by a model. Irradiation by particles causes damage leading to a decrease of the charge signal. However, both the measurements and the outcome from the model show that for tracker applications this drawback is at least partly counterbalanced by a narrowing of the distribution curve of the charge signal. As a result, the efficiency of a CVD diamond tracker is less affected by irradiation than the mean charge signal

  19. Abundance in Capital: Global Risk Sharing and Insurance in a Changing Financial Environment

    Michel, Gero; Schaper, Christopher

    2014-05-01

    Insurance has played a viable role in the hedging of homeowners and commercial risks around the world. Countries that have significant penetration in insurance have in addition performed better after large regional or over-regional catastrophic losses. Insurance has hence increased the resilience of western societies. This is opposed to emerging or developing markets with low insurance penetration which have suffered significant drawbacks in their development after large catastrophic events. Examples include the recent Typhoon(s) in the Philippines and the 2010 Haiti earthquake. This presentation will provide insights into the opportunities, views and risk management features a global reinsurance company must assume in order to hedge and mitigate risk across the world. During the past year, an unprecedented amount of new capital has been entering the insurance market, looking for profitable investments outside the much wider capital market. Catastrophe insurance is seen as a valuable alternative to investing in assets that that have shown low returns and high correlation in the recent financial meltdown. The new capital is mostly deployed - or competing with already deployed capital - in the US where insurance penetration is already high. This is opposed to more than half of the world including all developing and most emerging countries which have low insurance penetration and often lack infrastructure hindering new capital to be deployed effectively. What is needed to overcome this obvious deficiency in capital supply and demand? One reason why it is difficult to deploy capital in developing countries is the lack of available exposure information and catastrophe models. This presentation sheds light on the potential science needs of our market and gives an overview of what is being done at Montpelier, a global reinsurance company, to understand catastrophe risk around the globe.

  20. Types of Obesity and Its Association with the Clustering of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors in Jilin Province of China

    Zhang, Peng; Wang, Rui; Gao, Chunshi; Song, Yuanyuan; Lv, Xin; Jiang, Lingling; Yu, Yaqin; Wang, Yuhan; Li, Bo

    2016-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has become a serious public health problem in recent years in China. Aggregation of CVD risk factors in one individual increases the risk of CVD and the risk increases substantially with each additional risk factor. This study aims to explore the relationship between the number of clustered CVD risk factors and different types of obesity. A multistage stratified random cluster sampling design was used in this population-based cross-sectional study in 2012. Informa...

  1. Meeting the Challenge of Earthquake Risk Globalisation: Towards the Global Earthquake Model GEM (Sergey Soloviev Medal Lecture)

    Zschau, J.

    2009-04-01

    Earthquake risk, like natural risks in general, has become a highly dynamic and globally interdependent phenomenon. Due to the "urban explosion" in the Third World, an increasingly complex cross linking of critical infrastructure and lifelines in the industrial nations and a growing globalisation of the world's economies, we are presently facing a dramatic increase of our society's vulnerability to earthquakes in practically all seismic regions on our globe. Such fast and global changes cannot be captured with conventional earthquake risk models anymore. The sciences in this field are, therefore, asked to come up with new solutions that are no longer exclusively aiming at the best possible quantification of the present risks but also keep an eye on their changes with time and allow to project these into the future. This does not apply to the vulnerablity component of earthquake risk alone, but also to its hazard component which has been realized to be time-dependent, too. The challenges of earthquake risk dynamics and -globalisation have recently been accepted by the Global Science Forum of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD - GSF) who initiated the "Global Earthquake Model (GEM)", a public-private partnership for establishing an independent standard to calculate, monitor and communicate earthquake risk globally, raise awareness and promote mitigation.

  2. Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2016-01-01

    Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

  3. Global DNA hypomethylation in peripheral blood leukocytes as a biomarker for cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

    Hae Dong Woo

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Good biomarkers for early detection of cancer lead to better prognosis. However, harvesting tumor tissue is invasive and cannot be routinely performed. Global DNA methylation of peripheral blood leukocyte DNA was evaluated as a biomarker for cancer risk. METHODS: We performed a meta-analysis to estimate overall cancer risk according to global DNA hypomethylation levels among studies with various cancer types and analytical methods used to measure DNA methylation. Studies were systemically searched via PubMed with no language limitation up to July 2011. Summary estimates were calculated using a fixed effects model. RESULTS: The subgroup analyses by experimental methods to determine DNA methylation level were performed due to heterogeneity within the selected studies (p<0.001, I(2: 80%. Heterogeneity was not found in the subgroup of %5-mC (p = 0.393, I(2: 0% and LINE-1 used same target sequence (p = 0.097, I(2: 49%, whereas considerable variance remained in LINE-1 (p<0.001, I(2: 80% and bladder cancer studies (p = 0.016, I(2: 76%. These results suggest that experimental methods used to quantify global DNA methylation levels are important factors in the association study between hypomethylation levels and cancer risk. Overall, cancer risks of the group with the lowest DNA methylation levels were significantly higher compared to the group with the highest methylation levels [OR (95% CI: 1.48 (1.28-1.70]. CONCLUSIONS: Global DNA hypomethylation in peripheral blood leukocytes may be a suitable biomarker for cancer risk. However, the association between global DNA methylation and cancer risk may be different based on experimental methods, and region of DNA targeted for measuring global hypomethylation levels as well as the cancer type. Therefore, it is important to select a precise and accurate surrogate marker for global DNA methylation levels in the association studies between global DNA methylation levels in peripheral

  4. The socio-technical setting of economic stakes of global environment risks

    Salles, J.M.

    1993-01-01

    For policy-making for fighting acid rain, protecting the ozone layer and initiating action to prevent global climate change related to the growth of the greenhouse effect, the economic approach requires more precise consideration of how the economic stakes attached to these threats have been built up by their social actors. Global environmental risks (GER) are not directly perceivable nor can they be easily related to any activity or phenomena at local level (in time or space). There are scientific controversies about the reality of damage and establishing credible responsibility links. Moreover, these controversies are brought to media and social debate before any scientific clarification is possible. The media representations of GER emphasize the fact they could have catastrophic and irreversible consequences. So, the social demand for public action becomes very heavy when delay, possibly of several years between the causes and consequences of global environmental change, prevents any rapid clarification in the controversies. These difficulties have led to the evolution of a decision process in several steps: firstly, an international convention is prepared in which signatory countries commit themselves to cooperate and to take action; secondly, one or several agreements are signed with clear technical objectives and a timetable for implementations. 23 refs

  5. Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006-2007.

    Anyamba, Assaf; Chretien, Jean-Paul; Small, Jennifer; Tucker, Compton J; Linthicum, Kenneth J

    2006-12-28

    El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hemisphere particularly over North America. Building evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. We describe developing climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks using satellite generated data. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July - October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 - January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications are that the following regions are at increased

  6. Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006 – 2007

    Tucker Compton J

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hemisphere particularly over North America. Building evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. We describe developing climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks using satellite generated data. Results Sea surface temperatures (SSTs in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July – October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 – January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications

  7. IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS ON THE CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT IN A BANK

    Jerzy Piotr Gwizdała

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this article is to present the role of risk in the activity of a commercial bank with particular reference to the global financial crisis. The introductory part presents the origins of economic crises, especially the contemporary crisis from 2007-2010, which began in the United States subprime mortgage market. Dating back to the 1831, considerations allow to undetstand the causes of the crises. Then the impact of the global financial crisis on the scale of the crediting activities of banks in Poland was analyzed, presenting a credit portfolio structure, with a particular focus on the structure of loans to households and enterprises. In the second part of the article the process of credit risk management was discussed, paying attention to the crucial role of the bank's credit policy, and the conditions and prospects of commercial bank credit activity development were specified. It presents also the criteria for the proper credit management, indicating as the optimal solution the development of the so-called „credit textbook”.

  8. Global burden of stroke and risk factors in 188 countries, during 1990-2013

    Feigin, Valery L; Roth, Gregory A; Naghavi, Mohsen

    2016-01-01

    the population-attributable fraction (PAF) of stroke-related disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with potentially modifiable environmental, occupational, behavioural, physiological, and metabolic risk factors in different age and sex groups worldwide and in high-income countries and low......·2-73·5) and environmental factors (air pollution and lead exposure; 33·4%, 95% UI 32·4-34·3) were the second and third largest contributors to DALYs. Globally, 29·2% (95% UI 28·2-29·6) of the burden of stroke was attributed to air pollution. Although globally there were no significant differences between sexes......-income and middle-income countries, from 1990 to 2013. METHODS: We used data on stroke-related DALYs, risk factors, and PAF from the GBD 2013 Study to estimate the burden of stroke by age and sex (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UI]) in 188 countries, as measured with stroke-related DALYs in 1990...

  9. CVD-graphene for low equivalent series resistance in rGO/CVD-graphene/Ni-based supercapacitors

    Kwon, Young Hwi; Kumar, Sunil; Bae, Joonho; Seo, Yongho

    2018-05-01

    Reduced equivalent series resistance (ESR) is necessary, particularly at a high current density, for high performance supercapacitors, and the interface resistance between the current collector and electrode material is one of the main components of ESR. In this report, we have optimized chemical vapor deposition-grown graphene (CVD-G) on a current collector (Ni-foil) using reduced graphene oxide as an active electrode material to fabricate an electric double layer capacitor with reduced ESR. The CVD-G was grown at different cooling rates—20 °C min‑1, 40 °C min‑1 and 100 °C min‑1—to determine the optimum conditions. The lowest ESR, 0.38 Ω, was obtained for a cell with a 100 °C min‑1 cooling rate, while the sample without a CVD-G interlayer exhibited 0.80 Ω. The CVD-G interlayer-based supercapacitors exhibited fast CD characteristics with high scan rates up to 10 Vs‑1 due to low ESR. The specific capacitances deposited with CVD-G were in the range of 145.6 F g‑1–213.8 F g‑1 at a voltage scan rate of 0.05 V s‑1. A quasi-rectangular behavior was observed in the cyclic voltammetry curves, even at very high scan rates of 50 and 100 V s‑1, for the cell with optimized CVD-G at higher cooling rates, i.e. 100 °C min‑1.

  10. Risk perception and commitment to reduce global climate change in Spain

    Rodríguez-Priego, Nuria

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available An online national survey among the Spanish population (n = 602 was conducted to examine the factors underlying a person’s support for commitments to global climate change reductions. Multiple hierarchical regression analysis was conducted in four steps and a structural equations model was tested. A survey tool designed by the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication was applied in order to build scales for the variables introduced in the study. The results show that perceived consumer effectiveness and risk perception are determinant factors of commitment to mitigating global climate change. However, there are differences in the influence that other factors, such as socio-demographics, view of nature and cultural cognition, have on the last predicted variable.Una encuesta online a la población española (n = 602 examina los factores que predicen el apoyo al compromiso con el medio ambiente por parte de los participantes para reducir el cambio climático global. Se realizó una regresión múltiple jerárquica en cuatro pasos y se testó el modelo de ecuaciones estructurales propuesto. En la encuesta se aplicó una herramienta diseñada por el Yale Project on Climate Change Communication con la finalidad de construir escalas para las variables introducidas en el estudio. Los resultados muestran que la efectividad percibida por el consumidor y el riesgo percibido son factores determinantes del apoyo al compromiso para reducir el cambio climático global. No obstante, se encontraron algunas diferencias en cuanto a la influencia de otros factores tales como las variables socio-demográficas, la visión de la naturaleza y la cognición cultural.

  11. New trends in communicating risk and cultivating resilience: a multi-disciplinary approach to global environmental risk

    Kontar, Y. Y.; Eichelberger, J. C.; Rupp, S. T.; Taylor, K.

    2014-12-01

    The increasing extent and vulnerability of technologically advanced society together with aspects of global climate change intensifies the frequency and severity of natural disasters. Every year, communities around the world face the devastating consequences of hazardous events, including loss of life, property and infrastructure damage, and environmental decline. In this session, we will introduce a new book, entitled New Trends in Communicating Risk and Cultivating Resilience, which is dedicated to those who have directly or indirectly suffered the effects of climate change extreme events with the hope that the advance of knowledge, implementation of sound science and appropriate policies, and use of effective communication will help in reducing their vulnerability while also improving resilience in the face of often devastating natural hazards. This book comprises manuscripts from those whose research, advocacy, work, teaching, or service in the natural or social sciences deals with risk communication and/or management surrounding natural disasters, with a particular focus on climate change-related phenomena. This book is arranged into five sections: The Role of Communication in Fostering Resilient Communities (Reframing the conversation about natural hazards and climate change with a new focus on resilience)Before the Disaster: Prediction, Preparation, and Crisis Communication (The role of communication in predicting and preparing for the unpredictable regarding natural disasters)Mitigating Circumstances: Living Through Change, Uncertainty, and Disaster (Mitigation and the role of communication in minimizing the damage during natural disasters and during an era of climate change)After the Disaster: Response and Recovery Communication (The role of communication after natural disasters)Looking Back and Learning Forward: Best and Worst Practices Exposed (Considering risk and resilience communication of natural disasters with one eye on best practices and one eye

  12. Modelling and analysis of CVD processes for ceramic membrane preparation

    Brinkman, H.W.; Cao, G.Z.; Meijerink, J.; de Vries, Karel Jan; Burggraaf, Anthonie

    1993-01-01

    A mathematical model is presented that describes the modified chemical vapour deposition (CVD) process (which takes place in advance of the electrochemical vapour deposition (EVD) process) to deposit ZrO2 inside porous media for the preparation and modification of ceramic membranes. The isobaric

  13. Personality traits and childhood trauma as correlates of metabolic risk factors : The Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA)

    Dortland, Arianne K. B. van Reedt; Giltay, Erik J.; van Veen, Tineke; Zitman, Frans G.; Penninx, Brenda W. J. H.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Personality and childhood trauma may affect cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, evidence for an association with metabolic risk factors for CVD is limited and ambiguous. Moreover, despite their interrelatedness, personality and childhood trauma were not yet studied simultaneously.

  14. Caffeine and paraxanthine in aquatic systems: Global exposure distributions and probabilistic risk assessment.

    Rodríguez-Gil, J L; Cáceres, N; Dafouz, R; Valcárcel, Y

    2018-01-15

    This study presents one of the most complete applications of probabilistic methodologies to the risk assessment of emerging contaminants. Perhaps the most data-rich of these compounds, caffeine, as well as its main metabolite (paraxanthine), were selected for this study. Information for a total of 29,132 individual caffeine and 7442 paraxanthine samples was compiled, including samples where the compounds were not detected. The inclusion of non-detect samples (as censored data) in the estimation of environmental exposure distributions (EEDs) allowed for a realistic characterization of the global presence of these compounds in aquatic systems. EEDs were compared to species sensitivity distributions (SSDs), when possible, in order to calculate joint probability curves (JPCs) to describe the risk to aquatic organisms. This way, it was determined that unacceptable environmental risk (defined as 5% of the species being potentially exposed to concentrations able to cause effects in>5% of the cases) could be expected from chronic exposure to caffeine from effluent (28.4% of the cases), surface water (6.7% of the cases) and estuary water (5.4% of the cases). Probability of exceedance of acute predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs) for paraxanthine were higher than 5% for all assessed matrices except for drinking water and ground water, however no experimental effects data was available for paraxanthine, resulting in a precautionary deterministic hazard assessment for this compound. Given the chemical similarities between both compounds, real effect thresholds, and thus risk, for paraxanthine, would be expected to be close to those observed for caffeine. Negligible Human health risk from exposure to caffeine via drinking or groundwater is expected from the compiled data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Underreporting of high-risk water and sanitation practices undermines progress on global targets.

    Vedachalam, Sridhar; MacDonald, Luke H; Shiferaw, Solomon; Seme, Assefa; Schwab, Kellogg J

    2017-01-01

    Water and sanitation indicators under the Millennium Development Goals failed to capture high-risk practices undertaken on a regular basis. In conjunction with local partners, fourteen rounds of household surveys using mobile phones with a customized open-source application were conducted across nine study geographies in Asia and Africa. In addition to the main water and sanitation facilities, interviewees (n = 245,054) identified all water and sanitation options regularly used for at least one season of the year. Unimproved water consumption and open defecation were targeted as high-risk practices. We defined underreporting as the difference between the regular and main use of high-risk practices. Our estimates of high-risk practices as the main option matched the widely accepted Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) estimates within the 95% confidence interval. However, estimates of these practices as a regular option was far higher than the DHS estimates. Across the nine geographies, median underreporting of unimproved water use was 5.5%, with a range of 0.5% to 13.9%. Median underreporting of open defecation was much higher at 9.9%, with a range of 2.7% to 11.5%. This resulted in an underreported population of 25 million regularly consuming unimproved water and 50 million regularly practicing open defecation. Further examination of data from Ethiopia suggested that location and socio-economic factors were significant drivers of underreporting. Current global monitoring relies on a framework that considers the availability and use of a single option to meet drinking water and sanitation needs. Our analysis demonstrates the use of multiple options and widespread underreporting of high-risk practices. Policies based on current monitoring data, therefore, fail to consider the range of challenges and solutions to meeting water and sanitation needs, and result in an inflated sense of progress. Mobile surveys offer a cost-effective and innovative platform to rapidly

  16. Living with risk. A global review of disaster reduction initiatives. Preliminary version

    2002-01-01

    In recent years the world has witnessed an interminable succession of disasters - floods, storms, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and wildfires that have claimed many thousands of lives, caused material losses in the tens of billions of dollars, and inflicted a terrible toll on developing countries in particular, where disasters divert attention and resources needed desperately to escape poverty. Communities will always face natural hazards, but today's disasters are often generated by, or at least exacerbated by, human activities. At the most dramatic level, human activities are changing the natural balance of the earth, interfering as never before with the atmosphere, the oceans, the polar ice caps, the forest cover and the natural pillars that make our world a livable home. But we are also putting ourselves in harm's way in less visible ways. At no time in human history have so many people lived in cities clustered around seismically active areas. Destitution and demographic pressure have led more people than ever before to live in flood plains or in areas prone to landslides. Poor land-use planning; environmental mismanagement; and a lack of regulatory mechanisms both increase the risk and exacerbate the effects of disasters. Living with risk: a global review of disaster reduction is the first comprehensive effort by the United Nations system to take stock of disaster reduction initiatives throughout the world. Coordinated by the secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), the report discusses current disaster trends, assesses policies aimed at mitigating the impact of disasters, and offers examples of successful initiatives. It also recommends that risk reduction be integrated into sustainable development at all levels - global, national and local. Most of all, Living with risk shows that we are far from helpless in the face of natural hazards. Early warning and risk reduction measures have been important factors in

  17. Information and Risk Modification Trial (INFORM): design of a randomised controlled trial of communicating different types of information about coronary heart disease risk, alongside lifestyle advice, to achieve change in health-related behaviour.

    Silarova, Barbora; Lucas, Joanne; Butterworth, Adam S; Di Angelantonio, Emanuele; Girling, Christine; Lawrence, Kathryn; Mackintosh, Stuart; Moore, Carmel; Payne, Rupert A; Sharp, Stephen J; Shefer, Guy; Tolkien, Zoe; Usher-Smith, Juliet; Walker, Matthew; Danesh, John; Griffin, Simon

    2015-09-07

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of death globally. Primary prevention of CVD requires cost-effective strategies to identify individuals at high risk in order to help target preventive interventions. An integral part of this approach is the use of CVD risk scores. Limitations in previous studies have prevented reliable inference about the potential advantages and the potential harms of using CVD risk scores as part of preventive strategies. We aim to evaluate short-term effects of providing different types of information about coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, alongside lifestyle advice, on health-related behaviours. In a parallel-group, open randomised trial, we are allocating 932 male and female blood donors with no previous history of CVD aged 40-84 years in England to either no intervention (control group) or to one of three active intervention groups: i) lifestyle advice only; ii) lifestyle advice plus information on estimated 10-year CHD risk based on phenotypic characteristics; and iii) lifestyle advice plus information on estimated 10-year CHD risk based on phenotypic and genetic characteristics. The primary outcome is change in objectively measured physical activity. Secondary outcomes include: objectively measured dietary behaviours; cardiovascular risk factors; current medication and healthcare usage; perceived risk; cognitive evaluation of provision of CHD risk scores; and psychological outcomes. The follow-up assessment takes place 12 weeks after randomisation. The experiences, attitudes and concerns of a subset of participants will be also studied using individual interviews and focus groups. The INFORM study has been designed to provide robust findings about the short-term effects of providing different types of information on estimated 10-year CHD risk and lifestyle advice on health-related behaviours. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN17721237 . Registered 12 January 2015.

  18. Assessing and Responding to the Risks of Global and Societal Changes in the MENA Region

    Lange, Manfred

    2017-04-01

    combined risks posed by the MENA region being considered a climatic and a societal "hot spot", as described above. These risks will have to be effectively communicated to stakeholders and the research community in order to outline, specify and implement research towards efficacious mitigation and adaption strategies aimed to minimize adverse effects of challenges posed by global and societal changes in the MENA region. The paper will describe the current state of advancing such a process and will introduce a first draft of a "Future Earth Research Strategy for the MENA Region", as formulated by the FEMRC and its Regional Advisory Committee.

  19. CVD polycrystalline diamond. A novel neutron detector and applications

    Mongkolnavin, R.

    1998-01-01

    Chemical Vapour Deposition (CVD) Polycrystalline Diamond film has been investigated as a low noise sensor for beta particles, gammas and neutrons using High Energy Physics technologies. Its advantages and disadvantages have been explored in comparison with other particle detectors such as silicon detector and other plastic scintillators. The performance and characteristic of the diamond detector have been fully studied and discussed. These studies will lead to a better understanding of how CVD diamonds perform as a detector and how to improve their performance under various conditions. A CVD diamond detector model has been proposed which is an attempt to explain the behaviour of such an extreme detector material. A novel neutron detector is introduced as a result of these studies. A good thermal and fast neutron detector can be fabricated with CVD diamond with new topologies. This detector will perform well without degradation in a high neutron radiation environment, as diamond is known to be radiation hard. It also offers better neutrons and gammas discrimination for high gamma background applications compared to other semiconductor detectors. A full simulation of the detector has also been done using GEANT, a Monte-Carlo simulation program for particle detectors. Simulation results show that CVD diamond detectors with this novel topology can detect neutrons with great directionality. Experimental work has been done on this detector in a nuclear reactor environment and accelerator source. A novel neutron source which offers a fast pulse high-energy neutrons has also been studied. With this detector, applications in neutron spectrometer for low-Z material have been pursued with various neutron detection techniques. One of these is a low-Z material identification system. The system has been designed and simulated for contraband luggage interrogation using the detector and the novel neutron source. Also other neutron related applications have been suggested. (author)

  20. CVD polycrystalline diamond. A novel neutron detector and applications

    Mongkolnavin, R.

    1998-07-01

    Chemical Vapour Deposition (CVD) Polycrystalline Diamond film has been investigated as a low noise sensor for beta particles, gammas and neutrons using High Energy Physics technologies. Its advantages and disadvantages have been explored in comparison with other particle detectors such as silicon detector and other plastic scintillators. The performance and characteristic of the diamond detector have been fully studied and discussed. These studies will lead to a better understanding of how CVD diamonds perform as a detector and how to improve their performance under various conditions. A CVD diamond detector model has been proposed which is an attempt to explain the behaviour of such an extreme detector material. A novel neutron detector is introduced as a result of these studies. A good thermal and fast neutron detector can be fabricated with CVD diamond with new topologies. This detector will perform well without degradation in a high neutron radiation environment, as diamond is known to be radiation-hard. It also offers better neutrons and gammas discrimination for high gamma background applications compared to other semiconductor detectors. A full simulation of the detector has also been done using GEANT, a Monte Carlo simulation program for particle detectors. Simulation results show that CVD diamond detectors with this novel topology can detect neutrons with great directionality. Experimental work has been done on this detector in a nuclear reactor environment and accelerator source. A novel neutron source which offers a fast pulse high-energy neutrons has also been studied. With this detector, applications in neutron spectrometry for low-Z material have been pursued with various neutron detection techniques. One of these is a low-Z material identification system. The system has been designed and simulated for contraband luggage interrogation using the detector and the novel neutron source. (author)

  1. Risk assessment, eradication, and biological control: global efforts to limit Australian acacia invasions

    Wilson, John R.U.; Gairifo, Carla; Gibson, Michelle R.; Arianoutsou, Margarita; Bakar, Baki B.; Baret, Stephane; Celesti-Grapow, Laura; DiTomaso, Joseph M.; Dufour-Dror, Jean-Marc; Kueffer, Christoph; Kull, Christian A.; Hoffman, John H.; Impson, Fiona A.C.; Loope, Lloyd L.; Marchante, Elizabete; Harchante, Helia; Moore, Joslin L.; Murphy, Daniel J.; Tassin, Jacques; Witt, Arne; Zenni, Rafael D.; Richardson, David M.

    2011-01-01

    Aim Many Australian Acacia species have been planted around the world, some are highly valued, some are invasive, and some are both highly valued and invasive. We review global efforts to minimize the risk and limit the impact of invasions in this widely used plant group. Location Global. Methods Using information from literature sources, knowledge and experience of the authors, and the responses from a questionnaire sent to experts around the world, we reviewed: (1) a generalized life cycle of Australian acacias and how to control each life stage, (2) different management approaches and (3) what is required to help limit or prevent invasions. Results Relatively few Australian acacias have been introduced in large numbers, but all species with a long and extensive history of planting have become invasive somewhere. Australian acacias, as a group, have a high risk of becoming invasive and causing significant impacts as determined by existing assessment schemes. Moreover, in most situations, long-lived seed banks mean it is very difficult to control established infestations. Control has focused almost exclusively on widespread invaders, and eradication has rarely been attempted. Classical biological control is being used in South Africa with increasing success. Main conclusions A greater emphasis on pro-active rather than reactive management is required given the difficulties managing established invasions of Australian acacias. Adverse effects of proposed new introductions can be minimized by conducting detailed risk assessments in advance, planning for on-going monitoring and management, and ensuring resources are in place for long-term mitigation. Benign alternatives (e.g. sterile hybrids) could be developed to replace existing utilized taxa. Eradication should be set as a management goal more often to reduce the invasion debt. Introducing classical biological control agents that have a successful track-record in South Africa to other regions and identifying new

  2. Does Lipid Profile Affect Thrombin Generation During Ramadan Fasting in Patients With Cardiovascular Risks?

    Sassi, Mouna; Chakroun, Taher; Chouchène, Saoussen; Hellara, Ilhem; Boubaker, Hamdi; Grissa, Mohamed Habib; Khochtali, Ines; Hassine, Mohsen; Addad, Faouzi; Elalamy, Ismail; Nouira, Semir

    2017-11-01

    There is evidence that diet and variation in lipid metabolism can influence blood coagulation, but little is known about the effect of Ramadan fasting on plasmatic coagulation pattern. We investigated the effect of Ramadan fasting on thrombin generation (TG) in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks, and we aimed to assess the effect of lipid profile on TG parameters. The study was conducted in 36 adults having at least 2 CVD risks and in 30 healthy controls. Coagulation pattern was assessed by both classical clotting times and TG test. A complete lipid profile was performed simultaneously. Patients were invited 2 times: 1 week before Ramadan and during the last week of the Ramadan. The TG parameters were not different in patients with CVD risks compared to healthy controls. Fasting had no effect on plasmatic coagulation parameters and on TG profile. Individual analysis of the mean rate index (MRI) of TG revealed 3 groups: group 1 with no modification of MRI, group 2 with a significant increase in MRI (81.64 nM/min vs 136.07 nM/min; P fasting did not influence the global coagulation pattern in patients with CVD risks. Whereas, a significant increase in the propagation phase of TG was associated with a significant increase in cholesterol levels, which was not found with the other TG parameters.

  3. Comparative quantification of alcohol exposure as risk factor for global burden of disease.

    Rehm, Jürgen; Klotsche, Jens; Patra, Jayadeep

    2007-01-01

    Alcohol has been identified as one of the most important risk factors in the burden experienced as a result of disease. The objective of the present contribution is to establish a framework to comparatively quantify alcohol exposure as it is relevant for burden of disease. Different key indicators are combined to derive this quantification. First, adult per capita consumption, composed of recorded and unrecorded consumption, yields the best overall estimate of alcohol exposure for a country or region. Second, survey information is used to allocate the per capita consumption into sex and age groups. Third, an index for detrimental patterns of drinking is used to determine the additional impact on injury and cardiovascular burden. The methodology is applied to estimate global alcohol exposure for the year 2002. Finally, assumptions and potential problems of the approach are discussed. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Getting Risks Right:Thoughts about Increasing the Resilience of the Global Social & Economic System

    Patrick Liedtke

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The extraordinary extent of the financial crisis has inspired deep systemic reforms world-wide, rethinking financial stability, the resilience of our economic systems, and the role that national and international institutions play. While most of the ongoing activities are understandably centred on banks and the banking sector – the origin and centre of the crisis – other important elements have been relegated into secondary roles and fundamental democratic processes have been sidelined. Financial issues have crowded out real economic issues as policy-makers and politicians spend more time on the financial than the substantial (i.e. the real economy and the democratic. Two fundamental concerns need to be addressed proactively: 1. A comprehensive approach to deal with both financial and real world risks on this planet, and 2. The global governance system based on democratic principles to follow globalisation of the business (and particularly the financial sector.

  5. From Risks to Shared Value? Corporate Strategies in Building a Global Water Accounting and Disclosure Regime

    Marco A. Daniel

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The current debate on water accounting and accountability among transnational actors such as corporations and NGOs is likely to contribute to the emergence of a global water governance regime. Corporations within the food and beverage sector (F-B are especially vulnerable to water risks; therefore, in this article we analyse motivations and strategies of the major F-B corporations participating in the debate and developing different water accounting, disclosure and risk-assessment tools. Neo-institutionalism and neo-Gramscian regime theory provide the basis for our framework to analyse the discursive, material and organisational corporate water strategies. Findings based on an analysis of the chosen F-B corporations’ sustainability reports and interviews with key informants suggest that the corporations share similar goals and values with regard to the emerging regime. They seek a standardisation that is practical and supportive in improving their water efficiency and communication with stakeholders. This indicates that some harmonisation has taken place over time and new actors have been pursuing the path of the pioneering companies, but the lead corporations are also differentiating their strategies, thus engaging in hegemonic positioning. However, so far the plethora of NGO-driven accountability initiatives and tools has fragmented the field more than 'war of position' amongst the corporations. Furthermore, several companies claim to have proceeded from internal water-risk management to reducing risks throughout their value chains and watersheds. As a result they are 'creating shared value' with stakeholders, and potentially manifesting an emergent paradigm that goes beyond a private regime framework. Nevertheless, in the absence of verification schemes, questions of sustainability and legitimacy of such actions on the ground prevail and remain a topic for further research.

  6. Recalibration of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score in a multiethnic Asian population.

    Chan, Mark Y; Shah, Bimal R; Gao, Fei; Sim, Ling Ling; Chua, Terrance; Tan, Huay Cheem; Yeo, Tiong Cheng; Ong, Hean Yee; Foo, David; Goh, Ping Ping; Surrun, Soondal K; Pieper, Karen S; Granger, Christopher B; Koh, Tian Hai; Salim, Agus; Tai, E Shyong

    2011-08-01

    Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is a leading cause of mortality in Asia. However, quantitative risk scores to predict mortality after AMI were developed without the participation of Asian countries. We evaluated the performance of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) in-hospital mortality risk score, directly and after recalibration, in a large Singaporean cohort representing 3 major Asian ethnicities. The GRACE cohort included 11,389 patients, predominantly of European descent, hospitalized for AMI or unstable angina from 2002 to 2003. The Singapore cohort included 10,100 Chinese, 3,005 Malay, and 2,046 Indian patients hospitalized for AMI from 2002 to 2005.Using the original GRACE score, predicted in-hospital mortality was 2.4% (Chinese), 2.0% (Malay), and 1.6% (Indian). However, observed in-hospital mortality was much greater at 9.8% (Chinese), 7.6% (Malay), and 6.4% (Indian). The c statistic for Chinese, Malays, and Indians was 0.86, 0.86, and 0.84, respectively, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was 250, 56, and 41, respectively. Recalibration of the GRACE score, using the mean-centered constants derived from the Singapore cohort, did not change the c statistic but substantially improved the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic to 90, 24, and 18, respectively. The recalibrated GRACE score predicted in-hospital mortality as follows: 7.7% (Chinese), 6.0% (Malay), and 5.2% (Indian). In this large cohort of 3 major Asian ethnicities, the original GRACE score, derived from populations outside Asia, underestimated in-hospital mortality after AMI. Recalibration improved risk estimation substantially and may help adapt externally developed risk scores for local practice. Copyright © 2011 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Global risks due to illicit trafficking of nuclear and radiological materials

    Barakat, M. F.

    2012-01-01

    The global widespread applications of of the peaceful uses of atomic energy resulted in the production and accumulation of huge amounts of dangerous nuclear wastes and nuclear materials, the greater part of which is left either unattended or insufficiently protected. In the mean time, many terrorist groups appeared in the international arena aiming at fighting against all forms of pressure, discrimination or injustice in the international relations among developed and developing countries particularly in politically unstable regions of the world. Unfortunately, these terrorist groups were inclined to adopt the use of nuclear or radiological rather crude weapons to improve their methods and efforts in imposing situations of maximum horror possible to subjected communities. In the present work a brief study of the dimensions of nuclear terrorism, its forms and means directed to its support , has been carried out. The efforts to combat against nuclear proliferation in Central Asia as a region in which most of the violations of the non proliferation efforts occurred has been treated. In contrast, the prevailing conditions and efforts in the Americas region are discussed being a region in which combined efforts of the united states with other American countries were rather successful in combating nuclear proliferation. Some recommendations have been given concerning the necessary measures to face the global risk of illicit trafficking of nuclear materials all over the world. (author)

  8. Aedes aegypti Global Suitability Maps Using a Water Container Energy Balance Model for Dengue Risk Applications

    Steinhoff, D.

    2015-12-01

    Dengue infections are estimated to total nearly 400 million per year worldwide, with both the geographic range and the magnitude of infections having increased in the past 50 years. The primary dengue vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is closely associated with humans. It lives exclusively in urban and semi-urban areas, preferentially bites humans, and spends its developmental stages in artificial water containers. Climate regulates the development of Ae. aegypti immature mosquitoes in artificial containers. Potential containers for Ae. aegypti immature development include, but are not limited to, small sundry items (e.g., bottles, cans, plastic containers), buckets, tires, barrels, tanks, and cisterns. Successful development of immature mosquitoes from eggs to larvae, pupae, and eventually adults is largely dependent on the availability of water and the thermal properties of the water in the containers. Recent work has shown that physics-based approaches toward modeling container water properties are promising for resolving the complexities of container water dynamics and the effects on immature mosquito development. An energy balance container model developed by the author, termed the Water Height And Temperature in Container Habitats Energy Model (WHATCH'EM), solves for water temperature and height for user-specified containers with readily available weather data. Here we use WHATCH'EM with NASA Earth Science products used as input to construct global suitability maps based on established water temperature ranges for immature Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. A proxy for dengue risk is provided from habitat suitability, but also population estimates, as Ae. aegypti is closely associated with human activity. NASA gridded Global Population of the World data is used to mask out rural areas with low dengue risk. Suitability maps are illustrated for a variety of containers (size, material, color) and shading scenarios.

  9. Global thermal niche models of two European grasses show high invasion risks in Antarctica.

    Pertierra, Luis R; Aragón, Pedro; Shaw, Justine D; Bergstrom, Dana M; Terauds, Aleks; Olalla-Tárraga, Miguel Ángel

    2017-07-01

    The two non-native grasses that have established long-term populations in Antarctica (Poa pratensis and Poa annua) were studied from a global multidimensional thermal niche perspective to address the biological invasion risk to Antarctica. These two species exhibit contrasting introduction histories and reproductive strategies and represent two referential case studies of biological invasion processes. We used a multistep process with a range of species distribution modelling techniques (ecological niche factor analysis, multidimensional envelopes, distance/entropy algorithms) together with a suite of thermoclimatic variables, to characterize the potential ranges of these species. Their native bioclimatic thermal envelopes in Eurasia, together with the different naturalized populations across continents, were compared next. The potential niche of P. pratensis was wider at the cold extremes; however, P. annua life history attributes enable it to be a more successful colonizer. We observe that particularly cold summers are a key aspect of the unique Antarctic environment. In consequence, ruderals such as P. annua can quickly expand under such harsh conditions, whereas the more stress-tolerant P. pratensis endures and persist through steady growth. Compiled data on human pressure at the Antarctic Peninsula allowed us to provide site-specific biosecurity risk indicators. We conclude that several areas across the region are vulnerable to invasions from these and other similar species. This can only be visualized in species distribution models (SDMs) when accounting for founder populations that reveal nonanalogous conditions. Results reinforce the need for strict management practices to minimize introductions. Furthermore, our novel set of temperature-based bioclimatic GIS layers for ice-free terrestrial Antarctica provide a mechanism for regional and global species distribution models to be built for other potentially invasive species. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. The evolution of the Global Burden of Disease framework for disease, injury and risk factor quantification: developing the evidence base for national, regional and global public health action

    Lopez Alan D

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Reliable, comparable information about the main causes of disease and injury in populations, and how these are changing, is a critical input for debates about priorities in the health sector. Traditional sources of information about the descriptive epidemiology of diseases, injuries and risk factors are generally incomplete, fragmented and of uncertain reliability and comparability. Lack of a standardized measurement framework to permit comparisons across diseases and injuries, as well as risk factors, and failure to systematically evaluate data quality have impeded comparative analyses of the true public health importance of various conditions and risk factors. As a consequence the impact of major conditions and hazards on population health has been poorly appreciated, often leading to a lack of public health investment. Global disease and risk factor quantification improved dramatically in the early 1990s with the completion of the first Global Burden of Disease Study. For the first time, the comparative importance of over 100 diseases and injuries, and ten major risk factors, for global and regional health status could be assessed using a common metric (Disability-Adjusted Life Years which simultaneously accounted for both premature mortality and the prevalence, duration and severity of the non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. As a consequence, mental health conditions and injuries, for which non-fatal outcomes are of particular significance, were identified as being among the leading causes of disease/injury burden worldwide, with clear implications for policy, particularly prevention. A major achievement of the Study was the complete global descriptive epidemiology, including incidence, prevalence and mortality, by age, sex and Region, of over 100 diseases and injuries. National applications, further methodological research and an increase in data availability have led to improved national, regional and global estimates

  11. Statin use in adults at high risk of cardiovascular disease mortality: cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA).

    Murphy, Catriona

    2015-07-01

    This study aims to examine the extent to which statins are used by adults at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) compared to European clinical guidelines. The high-risk groups examined are those with (1) known CVD, (2) known diabetes and (3) a high or very high risk (≥5%) of CVD mortality based on Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE).

  12. Global risk mapping for major diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.

    Leta, Samson; Beyene, Tariku Jibat; De Clercq, Eva M; Amenu, Kebede; Kraemer, Moritz U G; Revie, Crawford W

    2018-02-01

    The objective of this study was to map the global risk of the major arboviral diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus by identifying areas where the diseases are reported, either through active transmission or travel-related outbreaks, as well as areas where the diseases are not currently reported but are nonetheless suitable for the vector. Data relating to five arboviral diseases (Zika, dengue fever, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Rift Valley fever (RVF)) were extracted from some of the largest contemporary databases and paired with data on the known distribution of their vectors, A. aegypti and A. albopictus. The disease occurrence data for the selected diseases were compiled from literature dating as far back as 1952 to as recent as 2017. The resulting datasets were aggregated at the country level, except in the case of the USA, where state-level data were used. Spatial analysis was used to process the data and to develop risk maps. Out of the 250 countries/territories considered, 215 (86%) are potentially suitable for the survival and establishment of A. aegypti and/or A. albopictus. A. albopictus has suitability foci in 197 countries/territories, while there are 188 that are suitable for A. aegypti. There is considerable variation in the suitability range among countries/territories, but many of the tropical regions of the world provide high suitability over extensive areas. Globally, 146 (58.4%) countries/territories reported at least one arboviral disease, while 123 (49.2%) reported more than one of the above diseases. The overall numbers of countries/territories reporting autochthonous vector-borne occurrences of Zika, dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and RVF, were 85, 111, 106, 43, and 39, respectively. With 215 countries/territories potentially suitable for the most important arboviral disease vectors and more than half of these reporting cases, arboviral diseases are indeed a global public health threat. The increasing proportion of

  13. Reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease in older women | Davey ...

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in women older than 50 years. Risk factors for CVD differ in some aspects from those in men. The prevention of CVD in women has undergone a reappraisal with the publication of studies looking at the use of menopausal hormone therapy for both primary and ...

  14. Dealing With A Controllable Risk Factor Like Diet In The ...

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a silent killer in Nigeria and many parts of the world. Certain factors increase the risk of CVD. While there are controllable factors that contribute and predispose to the development of CVD like diet, exercise, tobacco use, high blood pressure and obesity, there are uncontrollable factors like ...

  15. The Risk-Return Profiles Of Global Portfolios: Some Evidence From Asia-Pacific And European Equity Markets

    H. Christine Hsu

    2011-01-01

    As world financial markets are integrated, national stock markets tend to move together. Empirical evidence on correlations among equity markets worldwide suggests an increasing interdependence between most national markets in recent years. This is disconcerting, to say the least, to investors and portfolio managers seeking risk diversification via global equity investing. The objective of this study is to investigate whether there is still room for global portfolio diversification from the U...

  16. A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

    Lim, S.S.; Vos, T.; Flaxman, A.D.; Danaei, G.; Shibuya, K.; Adair-Rohani, H.; Amann, M.; Anderson, H.R.; Andrews, K.G.; Aryee, M.; Atkinson, C.; Bacchus, L.J.; Bahalim, A.N.; Balakrishnan, K.; Balmes, J.; Barker-Collo, S.; Baxter, A.; Bell, M.L.; Blore, J.D.; Blyth, F.; Bonner, C.; Borges, G.; Bourne, R.; Boussinesq, M.; Brauer, M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/31149157X; Brooks, P.; Bruce, N.G.; Brunekreef, B.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/067548180; Bryan-Hancock, C.; Bucello, C.; Buchbinder, R.; Bull, F.; Burnett, R.T.; Byers, T.E.; Calabria, B.; Carapetis, J.; Carnahan, E.; Chafe, Z.; Charlson, F.; Chen, H.; Chen, J.S.; Cheng, A.T.; Child, J.C.; Cohen, A.; Colson, K.E.; Cowie, B.C.; Darby, S.; Darling, S.; Davis, A.; Degenhardt, L.; Dentener, F.; Des Jarlais, D.C.; Devries, K.; Dherani, M.; Ding, E.L.; Dorsey, E.R.; Driscoll, T.; Edmond, K.; Ali, S.E.; Engell, R.E.; Erwin, P.J.; Fahimi, S.; Falder, G.; Farzadfar, F.; Ferrari, A.; Finucane, M.M.; Flaxman, S.; Fowkes, F.G.R.; Freedman, G.; Freeman, M.K.; Gakidou, E.; Ghosh, S.; Giovannucci, E.; Gmel, G.; Graham, K.; Grainger, R.; Grant, B.; Gunnell, D.; Gutierrez, H.R.; Hall, W.; Hoek, H.W.; Hogan, A.; Hosgood, H.D.; Hoy, D.; Hu, H.; Hubbell, B.J.; Hutchings, S.J.; Ibeanusi, S.E.; Jacklyn, G.L.; Jasrasaria, R.; Jonas, J.B.; Kan, H.; Kanis, J.A.; Kassebaum, N.; Kawakami, N.; Khang, Y-H.; Khatibzadeh, S.; Khoo, J-P.; de Kok, C.; Laden, F.; Lalloo, R.; Lan, Q.; Lathlean, T.; Leasher, J.L.; Leigh, J.; Li, Y.; Lin, J.K.; Lipshultz, S.E.; London, S.; Lozano, R.; Lu, Y.; Mak, J.; Malekzadeh, R.; Mallinger, L.; Marcenes, W.; March, L.; Marks, R.; Martin, R.; McGale, P.; McGrath, J.; Mehta, S.; Mensah, G.A.; Merriman, T.R.; Micha, R.; Michaud, C.; Mishra, V.; Hanafiah, K.M.; Mokdad, A.A.; Morawska, L.; Mozaffarian, D.; Murphy, T.; Naghavi, M.; Neal, B.; Nelson, P.K.; Nolla, J.M.; Norman, R.; Olives, C.; Omer, S. B; Orchard, J.; Osborne, R.; Ostro, B.; Page, A.; Pandey, K.D.; Parry, C.D.H.; Passmore, E.; Patra, J.; Pearce, N.; Pelizzari, P.M.; Petzold, M.; Phillips, M.R.; Pope, D.; Pope, C.A.; Powles, J.; Rao, M.; Razavi, H.; Rehfuess, E.A.; Rehm, J.T.; Ritz, B.; Rivara, F.P.; Roberts, T.; Robinson, C.; Rodriguez-Portales, J.A.; Romieu, I.; Room, R.; Rosenfeld, L.C.; Roy, A.; Rushton, L.; Salomon, J.A.; Sampson, U.; Sanchez-Riera, L.; Sanman, E.; Sapkota, A.; Seedat, S.; Shi, P.; Shield, K.; Shivakoti, R.; Singh, G.M.; Sleet, D.A.; Smith, E.; Smith, K.R.; Stapelberg, N.J.C.; Steenland, K.; Stöckl, H.; Stovner, L.J.; Straif, K.; Straney, L.; Thurston, G.D.; Tran, J.H.; van Dingenen, R.; van Donkelaar, A.; Veerman, J.L.; Vijayakumar, L.; Weintraub, R.; Weissman, M.M.; White, R.A.; Whiteford, H.; Wiersma, S.T.; Wilkinson, J.D.; Williams, H.C.; Williams, W.; Wilson, N.; Woolf, A.D.; Yip, P.; Zielinski, J.M.; Lopez, A.D.; Murray, C.J.L.; Ezzati, M.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk

  17. Development and Psychometric Assessment of the Measure of Globalization Influence on Health Risk (MGIHR) Among Mexican Women with Breast Cancer.

    Nodora, Jesse N; Carvajal, Scott C; Robles-Garcia, Rebeca; Agraz, Francisco Páez; Daneri-Navarro, Adrian; Meza-Montenegro, Maria Mercedes; Gutierrez-Millan, Luis Enrique; Martinez, Maria Elena

    2015-08-01

    Lacking in the literature are data addressing the extent to which changes in reproductive and lifestyle factors predispose women in developing nations to higher breast cancer rates, and the degree to which these are due to globalization influences. This article describes the development and psychometric assessment of an instrument intended to measure global, predominantly U.S., influences on breast cancer risk profile among women residing in Mexico. Using investigator consensus and a focus group methodology, the Measure of Globalization Influence on Health Risk (MGIHR) was developed and completed by 341 women. Psychometric analysis support the use of an 11-item Consumerism and Modernity scale and 7-item Reproductive Control and Gender Role scale. The MGIHR is a valid and reliable instrument for understanding changing lifestyle and reproductive factors for breast cancer risk and may provide a more complete understanding of breast cancer development and needed interventions.

  18. Climate change and health: global to local influences on disease risk.

    Patz, J A; Olson, S H

    2006-01-01

    The World Health Organization has concluded that the climatic changes that have occurred since the mid 1970s could already be causing annually over 150,000 deaths and five million disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), mainly in developing countries. The less developed countries are, ironically, those least responsible for causing global warming. Many health outcomes and diseases are sensitive to climate, including: heat-related mortality or morbidity; air pollution-related illnesses; infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted, indirectly, via water or by insect or rodent vectors; and refugee health issues linked to forced population migration. Yet, changing landscapes can significantly affect local weather more acutely than long-term climate change. Land-cover change can influence micro-climatic conditions, including temperature, evapo-transpiration and surface run-off, that are key determinants in the emergence of many infectious diseases. To improve risk assessment and risk management of these synergistic processes (climate and land-use change), more collaborative efforts in research, training and policy-decision support, across the fields of health, environment, sociology and economics, are required.

  19. Thermodynamic study of CVD-ZrO2 phase diagrams

    Torres-Huerta, A.M.; Vargas-Garcia, J.R.; Dominguez-Crespo, M.A.; Romero-Serrano, J.A.

    2009-01-01

    Chemical vapor deposition (CVD) of zirconium oxide (ZrO 2 ) from zirconium acetylacetonate Zr(acac) 4 has been thermodynamically investigated using the Gibbs' free energy minimization method and the FACTSAGE program. Thermodynamic data Cp o , ΔH o and S o for Zr(acac) 4 have been estimated using the Meghreblian-Crawford-Parr and Benson methods because they are not available in the literature. The effect of deposition parameters, such as temperature and pressure, on the extension of the region where pure ZrO 2 can be deposited was analyzed. The results are presented as calculated CVD stability diagrams. The phase diagrams showed two zones, one of them corresponds to pure monoclinic phase of ZrO 2 and the other one corresponds to a mix of monoclinic phase of ZrO 2 and graphite carbon.

  20. Performance of irradiated CVD diamond micro-strip sensors

    Adam, W.; Berdermann, E.; Bergonzo, P.; Bertuccio, G.; Bogani, F.; Borchi, E.; Brambilla, A.; Bruzzi, M.; Colledani, C.; Conway, J.; D'Angelo, P.; Dabrowski, W.; Delpierre, P.; Deneuville, A.; Dulinski, W.; Eijk, B. van; Fallou, A.; Fizzotti, F.; Foulon, F.; Friedl, M.; Gan, K.K.; Gheeraert, E.; Hallewell, G.; Han, S.; Hartjes, F.; Hrubec, J.; Husson, D.; Kagan, H.; Kania, D.; Kaplon, J.; Kass, R.; Koeth, T.; Krammer, M.; Logiudice, A.; Lu, R.; Mac Lynne, L.; Manfredotti, C.; Meier, D.; Mishina, M.; Moroni, L.; Noomen, J.; Oh, A.; Pan, L.S.; Pernicka, M.; Peitz, A.; Perera, L.; Pirollo, S.; Procario, M.; Riester, J.L.; Roe, S.; Rousseau, L.; Rudge, A.; Russ, J.; Sala, S.; Sampietro, M.; Schnetzer, S.; Sciortino, S.; Stelzer, H.; Stone, R.; Suter, B.; Tapper, R.J.; Tesarek, R.; Trischuk, W.; Tromson, D.; Vittone, E.; Walsh, A.M.; Wedenig, R.; Weilhammer, P.; Wetstein, M.; White, C.; Zeuner, W.; Zoeller, M.; Plano, R.; Somalwar, S.V.; Thomson, G.B.

    2002-01-01

    CVD diamond detectors are of interest for charged particle detection and tracking due to their high radiation tolerance. In this article, we present, for the first time, beam test results from recently manufactured CVD diamond strip detectors and their behavior under low doses of electrons from a β-source and the performance before and after intense (>10 15 /cm 2 ) proton- and pion-irradiations. We find that low dose irradiation increase the signal-to-noise ratio (pumping of the signal) and slightly deteriorate the spatial resolution. Intense irradiation with protons 2.2x10 15 p/cm 2 lowers the signal-to-noise ratio slightly. Intense irradiation with pions 2.9x10 15 π/cm 2 lowers the signal-to-noise ratio more. The spatial resolution of the diamond sensors improves after irradiations

  1. Performance of irradiated CVD diamond micro-strip sensors

    Adam, W.; Berdermann, E.; Bergonzo, P.; Bertuccio, G.; Bogani, F.; Borchi, E.; Brambilla, A.; Bruzzi, M.; Colledani, C.; Conway, J.; D' Angelo, P.; Dabrowski, W.; Delpierre, P.; Deneuville, A.; Dulinski, W.; Eijk, B. van; Fallou, A.; Fizzotti, F.; Foulon, F.; Friedl, M.; Gan, K.K.; Gheeraert, E.; Hallewell, G.; Han, S.; Hartjes, F.; Hrubec, J.; Husson, D.; Kagan, H.; Kania, D.; Kaplon, J.; Kass, R.; Koeth, T.; Krammer, M.; Logiudice, A.; Lu, R.; Mac Lynne, L.; Manfredotti, C.; Meier, D. E-mail: dirk.meier@cern.ch; Mishina, M.; Moroni, L.; Noomen, J.; Oh, A.; Pan, L.S.; Pernicka, M.; Peitz, A.; Perera, L.; Pirollo, S.; Procario, M.; Riester, J.L.; Roe, S.; Rousseau, L.; Rudge, A.; Russ, J.; Sala, S.; Sampietro, M.; Schnetzer, S.; Sciortino, S.; Stelzer, H.; Stone, R.; Suter, B.; Tapper, R.J.; Tesarek, R.; Trischuk, W.; Tromson, D.; Vittone, E.; Walsh, A.M.; Wedenig, R.; Weilhammer, P.; Wetstein, M.; White, C.; Zeuner, W.; Zoeller, M.; Plano, R.; Somalwar, S.V.; Thomson, G.B

    2002-01-11

    CVD diamond detectors are of interest for charged particle detection and tracking due to their high radiation tolerance. In this article, we present, for the first time, beam test results from recently manufactured CVD diamond strip detectors and their behavior under low doses of electrons from a {beta}-source and the performance before and after intense (>10{sup 15}/cm{sup 2}) proton- and pion-irradiations. We find that low dose irradiation increase the signal-to-noise ratio (pumping of the signal) and slightly deteriorate the spatial resolution. Intense irradiation with protons 2.2x10{sup 15} p/cm{sup 2} lowers the signal-to-noise ratio slightly. Intense irradiation with pions 2.9x10{sup 15} {pi}/cm{sup 2} lowers the signal-to-noise ratio more. The spatial resolution of the diamond sensors improves after irradiations.

  2. Pulse height distribution and radiation tolerance of CVD diamond detectors

    Adam, W.; Berdermann, E.; Bergonzo, P.; Bertuccio, G.; Bogani, F.; Borchi, E.; Brambilla, A.; Bruzzi, M.; Colledani, C.; Conway, J.; Dangelo, P.; Dabrowski, W.; Delpierre, P.; Deneuville, A.; Dulinski, W.; Eijk, B. van; Fallou, A.; Fizzotti, F.; Foulon, F.; Friedl, M.; Gan, K.K.; Gheeraert, E.; Grigoriev, E.; Hallewell, G.; Han, S.; Hartjes, F. E-mail: f.hartjes@nikhef.nl; Hrubec, J.; Husson, D.; Kagan, H.; Kania, D.; Kaplon, J.; Karl, C.; Kass, R.; Krammer, M.; Logiudice, A.; Lu, R.; Manfredotti, C.; Meier, D.; Mishina, M.; Moroni, L.; Oh, A.; Pan, L.S.; Pernicka, M.; Peitz, A.; Pirollo, S.; Polesello, P.; Procario, M.; Riester, J.L.; Roe, S.; Rousseau, L.; Rudge, A.; Russ, J.; Sala, S.; Sampietro, M.; Schnetzer, S.; Sciortino, S.; Stelzer, H.; Stone, R.; Suter, B.; Tapper, R.J.; Tesarek, R.; Trawick, M.; Trischuk, W.; D.Tromson,; Vittone, E.; Walsh, A.M.; Wedenig, R.; Weilhammer, P.; White, C.; Zeuner, W.; Zoeller, M.; Fenyvesi, A.; Molnar, J.; Sohler, D

    2000-06-01

    The paper reviews measurements of the radiation tolerance of CVD diamond for irradiation with 24 GeV/c protons, 300 MeV/c pions and 1 MeV neutrons. For proton and neutron irradiation, the measured charge signal spectrum is compared with the spectrum calculated by a model. Irradiation by particles causes radiation damage leading to a decrease of the charge signal. However, both the measurements and the outcome from the model shows that for tracker applications this drawback is at least partly counterbalanced by a narrowing of the distribution curve of the charge signal. In addition, we observed after proton irradiation at the charge signal spectrum a decrease of the number of small signals. As a result, the efficiency of a CVD diamond tracker is less affected by irradiation than the mean charge signal.

  3. Performance of irradiated CVD diamond micro-strip sensors

    Adam, W; Bergonzo, P; Bertuccio, G; Bogani, F; Borchi, E; Brambilla, A; Bruzzi, Mara; Colledani, C; Conway, J; D'Angelo, P; Dabrowski, W; Delpierre, P A; Deneuville, A; Dulinski, W; van Eijk, B; Fallou, A; Fizzotti, F; Foulon, F; Friedl, M; Gan, K K; Gheeraert, E; Hallewell, G D; Han, S; Hartjes, F G; Hrubec, Josef; Husson, D; Kagan, H; Kania, D R; Kaplon, J; Kass, R; Koeth, T W; Krammer, Manfred; Lo Giudice, A; Lü, R; MacLynne, L; Manfredotti, C; Meier, D; Mishina, M; Moroni, L; Noomen, J; Oh, A; Pan, L S; Pernicka, Manfred; Peitz, A; Perera, L P; Pirollo, S; Procario, M; Riester, J L; Roe, S; Rousseau, L; Rudge, A; Russ, J; Sala, S; Sampietro, M; Schnetzer, S R; Sciortino, S; Stelzer, H; Stone, R; Suter, B; Tapper, R J; Tesarek, R J; Trischuk, W; Tromson, D; Vittone, E; Walsh, A M; Wedenig, R; Weilhammer, Peter; Wetstein, M; White, C; Zeuner, W; Zöller, M

    2002-01-01

    CVD diamond detectors are of interest for charged particle detection and tracking due to their high radiation tolerance. In this article we present, for the first time, beam test results from recently manufactured CVD diamond strip detectors and their behavior under low doses of electrons from a $\\beta$-source and the performance before and after intense ($>10^{15}/{\\rm cm^2}$) proton- and pion-irradiations. We find that low dose irradiations increase the signal-to-noise ratio (pumping of the signal) and slightly deteriorate the spatial resolution. Intense irradiations with protons ($2.2\\times 10^{15}~p/{\\rm cm^2}$) lowers the signal-to-noise ratio slightly. Intense irradiation with pions ($2.9\\times 10^{15}~\\pi/{\\rm cm^2}$) lowers the signal-to-noise ratio more. The spatial resolution of the diamond sensors improves after irradiations.

  4. Performance of irradiated CVD diamond micro-strip sensors

    Adam, W.; Berdermann, E.; Bergonzo, P.; Bertuccio, G.; Bogani, F.; Borchi, E.; Brambilla, A.; Bruzzi, M.; Colledani, C.; Conway, J.; D'Angelo, P.; Dabrowski, W.; Delpierre, P.; Deneuville, A.; Dulinski, W.; van Eijk, B.; Fallou, A.; Fizzotti, F.; Foulon, F.; Friedl, M.; Gan, K. K.; Gheeraert, E.; Hallewell, G.; Han, S.; Hartjes, F.; Hrubec, J.; Husson, D.; Kagan, H.; Kania, D.; Kaplon, J.; Kass, R.; Koeth, T.; Krammer, M.; Logiudice, A.; Lu, R.; mac Lynne, L.; Manfredotti, C.; Meier, D.; Mishina, M.; Moroni, L.; Noomen, J.; Oh, A.; Pan, L. S.; Pernicka, M.; Peitz, A.; Perera, L.; Pirollo, S.; Procario, M.; Riester, J. L.; Roe, S.; Rousseau, L.; Rudge, A.; Russ, J.; Sala, S.; Sampietro, M.; Schnetzer, S.; Sciortino, S.; Stelzer, H.; Stone, R.; Suter, B.; Tapper, R. J.; Tesarek, R.; Trischuk, W.; Tromson, D.; Vittone, E.; Walsh, A. M.; Wedenig, R.; Weilhammer, P.; Wetstein, M.; White, C.; Zeuner, W.; Zoeller, M.; Plano, R.; Somalwar, S. V.; Thomson, G. B.

    2002-01-01

    CVD diamond detectors are of interest for charged particle detection and tracking due to their high radiation tolerance. In this article, we present, for the first time, beam test results from recently manufactured CVD diamond strip detectors and their behavior under low doses of electrons from a β-source and the performance before and after intense (>10 15/cm 2) proton- and pion-irradiations. We find that low dose irradiation increase the signal-to-noise ratio (pumping of the signal) and slightly deteriorate the spatial resolution. Intense irradiation with protons 2.2×10 15 p/ cm2 lowers the signal-to-noise ratio slightly. Intense irradiation with pions 2.9×10 15 π/ cm2 lowers the signal-to-noise ratio more. The spatial resolution of the diamond sensors improves after irradiations.

  5. Assessment of CVD diamond as a thermoluminescence dosemeter material

    Borchi, E.; Furetta, C.; Leroy, C.

    1996-01-01

    Diamond has a low atomic number (Z = 6) and is therefore essentially soft tissue (Z = 7.4) equivalent. As such, diamond is an attractive material for applications in dosimetry in which the radiation absorption in the sensor material should be as close as possible to that of soft tissue. Synthetic diamond prepared by chemical vapour deposition (CVD) offers an attractive option for this application. The aim of the present work is to report results on the thermoluminescence (TL) properties of CVD diamond samples. The annealing procedures, the linearity of the TL response as a function of dose, a short-term fading experiment and some kinetic properties have been investigated and are reported here. (Author)

  6. Cold Vacuum Drying (CVD) OCRWM Loop Error Determination

    PHILIPP, B.L.

    2000-01-01

    Characterization is specifically identified by the Richland Operations Office (RL) for the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) of the US Department of Energy (DOE), as requiring application of the requirements in the Quality Assurance Requirements and Description (QARD) (RW-0333P DOE 1997a). Those analyses that provide information that is necessary for repository acceptance require application of the QARD. The cold vacuum drying (CVD) project identified the loops that measure, display, and record multi-canister overpack (MCO) vacuum pressure and Tempered Water (TW) temperature data as providing OCRWM data per Application of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) Quality Assurance Requirements to the Hanford Spent Nuclear Fuel Project HNF-SD-SNF-RPT-007. Vacuum pressure transmitters (PT 1*08, 1*10) and TW temperature transmitters (TIT-3*05, 3*12) are used to verify drying and to determine the water content within the MCO after CVD

  7. Pulse height distribution and radiation tolerance of CVD diamond detectors

    Adam, W; Bergonzo, P; Bertuccio, G; Bogani, F; Borchi, E; Brambilla, A; Bruzzi, Mara; Colledani, C; Conway, J; D'Angelo, P; Dabrowski, W; Delpierre, P A; Deneuville, A; Dulinski, W; van Eijk, B; Fallou, A; Fizzotti, F; Foulon, F; Friedl, M; Gan, K K; Gheeraert, E; Grigoriev, E; Hallewell, G D; Han, S; Hartjes, F G; Hrubec, Josef; Husson, D; Kagan, H; Kania, D R; Kaplon, J; Karl, C; Kass, R; Krammer, Manfred; Lo Giudice, A; Lü, R; Manfredotti, C; Meier, D; Mishina, M; Moroni, L; Oh, A; Pan, L S; Pernicka, Manfred; Peitz, A; Pirollo, S; Polesello, P; Procario, M; Riester, J L; Roe, S; Rousseau, L; Rudge, A; Russ, J; Sala, S; Sampietro, M; Schnetzer, S R; Sciortino, S; Stelzer, H; Stone, R; Suter, B; Tapper, R J; Tesarek, R J; Trawick, M L; Trischuk, W; Tromson, D; Vittone, E; Walsh, A M; Wedenig, R; Weilhammer, Peter; White, C; Zeuner, W; Zöller, M; Fenyvesi, A; Molnár, J; Sohler, D

    2000-01-01

    The paper reviews measurements of the radiation tolerance of CVD diamond for irradiation with 24 GeV/c protons, 300 MeV/c pions and 1 MeV neutrons. For proton and neutron irradiation, the measured charge signal spectrum is compared with the spectrum calculated by a model. Irradiation by particles causes radiation damage leading to a decrease of the charge signal. However, both the measurements and the outcome from the model shows that for tracker applications this drawback is at least partly counterbalanced by a narrowing of the distribution curve of the charge signal. In addition, we observed after proton irradiation at the charge signal spectrum a decrease of the number of small signals. As a result, the efficiency of a CVD diamond tracker is less affected by irradiation than the mean charge signal. (11 refs).

  8. Pulse height distribution and radiation tolerance of CVD diamond detectors

    Adam, W.; Berdermann, E.; Bergonzo, P.; Bertuccio, G.; Bogani, F.; Borchi, E.; Brambilla, A.; Bruzzi, M.; Colledani, C.; Conway, J.; Dangelo, P.; Dabrowski, W.; Delpierre, P.; Deneuville, A.; Dulinski, W.; Eijk, B. van; Fallou, A.; Fizzotti, F.; Foulon, F.; Friedl, M.; Gan, K.K.; Gheeraert, E.; Grigoriev, E.; Hallewell, G.; Han, S.; Hartjes, F.; Hrubec, J.; Husson, D.; Kagan, H.; Kania, D.; Kaplon, J.; Karl, C.; Kass, R.; Krammer, M.; Logiudice, A.; Lu, R.; Manfredotti, C.; Meier, D.; Mishina, M.; Moroni, L.; Oh, A.; Pan, L.S.; Pernicka, M.; Peitz, A.; Pirollo, S.; Polesello, P.; Procario, M.; Riester, J.L.; Roe, S.; Rousseau, L.; Rudge, A.; Russ, J.; Sala, S.; Sampietro, M.; Schnetzer, S.; Sciortino, S.; Stelzer, H.; Stone, R.; Suter, B.; Tapper, R.J.; Tesarek, R.; Trawick, M.; Trischuk, W.; D.Tromson,; Vittone, E.; Walsh, A.M.; Wedenig, R.; Weilhammer, P.; White, C.; Zeuner, W.; Zoeller, M.; Fenyvesi, A.; Molnar, J.; Sohler, D.

    2000-01-01

    The paper reviews measurements of the radiation tolerance of CVD diamond for irradiation with 24 GeV/c protons, 300 MeV/c pions and 1 MeV neutrons. For proton and neutron irradiation, the measured charge signal spectrum is compared with the spectrum calculated by a model. Irradiation by particles causes radiation damage leading to a decrease of the charge signal. However, both the measurements and the outcome from the model shows that for tracker applications this drawback is at least partly counterbalanced by a narrowing of the distribution curve of the charge signal. In addition, we observed after proton irradiation at the charge signal spectrum a decrease of the number of small signals. As a result, the efficiency of a CVD diamond tracker is less affected by irradiation than the mean charge signal

  9. Crystal growth of CVD diamond and some of its peculiarities

    Piekarczyk, W

    1999-01-01

    Experiments demonstrate that CVD diamond can form in gas environments that are carbon undersaturated with respect to diamond. This fact is, among others, the most serious violation of principles of chemical thermodynamics. In this $9 paper it is shown that none of the principles is broken when CVD diamond formation is considered not a physical process consisting in growth of crystals but a chemical process consisting in accretion of macro-molecules of polycyclic $9 saturated hydrocarbons belonging to the family of organic compounds the smallest representatives of which are adamantane, diamantane, triamantane and so forth. Since the polymantane macro-molecules are in every respect identical with $9 diamond single crystals with hydrogen-terminated surfaces, the accretion of polymantane macro- molecules is a process completely equivalent to the growth of diamond crystals. However, the accretion of macro-molecules must be $9 described in a way different from that used to describe the growth of crystals because so...

  10. Global Potential Distribution of Bactrocera carambolae and the Risks for Fruit Production in Brazil.

    Marchioro, Cesar A

    2016-01-01

    The carambola fruit fly, Bactrocera carambolae, is a tephritid native to Asia that has invaded South America through small-scale trade of fruits from Indonesia. The economic losses associated with biological invasions of other fruit flies around the world and the polyphagous behaviour of B. carambolae have prompted much concern among government agencies and farmers with the potential spread of this pest. Here, ecological niche models were employed to identify suitable environments available to B. carambolae in a global scale and assess the extent of the fruit acreage that may be at risk of attack in Brazil. Overall, 30 MaxEnt models built with different combinations of environmental predictors and settings were evaluated for predicting the potential distribution of the carambola fruit fly. The best model was selected based on threshold-independent and threshold-dependent metrics. Climatically suitable areas were identified in tropical and subtropical regions of Central and South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, west and east coast of India and northern Australia. The suitability map of B. carambola was intersected against maps of fruit acreage in Brazil. The acreage under potential risk of attack varied widely among fruit species, which is expected because the production areas are concentrated in different regions of the country. The production of cashew is the one that is at higher risk, with almost 90% of its acreage within the suitable range of B. carambolae, followed by papaya (78%), tangerine (51%), guava (38%), lemon (30%), orange (29%), mango (24%) and avocado (20%). This study provides an important contribution to the knowledge of the ecology of B. carambolae, and the information generated here can be used by government agencies as a decision-making tool to prevent the carambola fruit fly spread across the world.

  11. Global Potential Distribution of Bactrocera carambolae and the Risks for Fruit Production in Brazil.

    Cesar A Marchioro

    Full Text Available The carambola fruit fly, Bactrocera carambolae, is a tephritid native to Asia that has invaded South America through small-scale trade of fruits from Indonesia. The economic losses associated with biological invasions of other fruit flies around the world and the polyphagous behaviour of B. carambolae have prompted much concern among government agencies and farmers with the potential spread of this pest. Here, ecological niche models were employed to identify suitable environments available to B. carambolae in a global scale and assess the extent of the fruit acreage that may be at risk of attack in Brazil. Overall, 30 MaxEnt models built with different combinations of environmental predictors and settings were evaluated for predicting the potential distribution of the carambola fruit fly. The best model was selected based on threshold-independent and threshold-dependent metrics. Climatically suitable areas were identified in tropical and subtropical regions of Central and South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, west and east coast of India and northern Australia. The suitability map of B. carambola was intersected against maps of fruit acreage in Brazil. The acreage under potential risk of attack varied widely among fruit species, which is expected because the production areas are concentrated in different regions of the country. The production of cashew is the one that is at higher risk, with almost 90% of its acreage within the suitable range of B. carambolae, followed by papaya (78%, tangerine (51%, guava (38%, lemon (30%, orange (29%, mango (24% and avocado (20%. This study provides an important contribution to the knowledge of the ecology of B. carambolae, and the information generated here can be used by government agencies as a decision-making tool to prevent the carambola fruit fly spread across the world.

  12. Cardiovascular risk estimation by professionally active cardiovascular nurses: Results from the Basel 2005 Nurses Cohort

    Scholte op Reimer, W.J.M.; Moons, P.; De Geest, S.; Fridlund, B.; Heikkila, J.; Jaarsma, Trijntje (Tiny); Lenzen, M.; Martensson, J.; Norekval, T.M.; Smith, K; Stewart, S.; Stromberg, A; Thompson, D.R.

    2006-01-01

    Background: Nurses play a key role in the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and one would, therefore, expect them to have a heightened awareness of the need for systematic screening and their own CVD risk profile. The aim of this study was to examine personal awareness of CVD risk among a

  13. Determinants of attaining and maintaining a low cardiovascular risk profile-the Doetinchem Cohort Study

    Hulsegge, Gerben; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Daviglus, Martha L; Smit, Henriëtte A; Verschuren, W M Monique

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: While maintenance of a low cardiovascular risk profile is essential for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, few people maintain a low CVD risk profile throughout their life. We studied the association of demographic, lifestyle, psychological factors and family history of CVD with

  14. Parameterisation of radiation effects on CVD diamond for proton irradiation

    Hartjes, F.; Adam, W.; Bauer, C.; Berdermann, E.; Bergonzo, P.; Bogani, F.; Borchi, E.; Brambilla, A.; Bruzzi, M.; Colledani, C.; Conway, J.; Dabrowski, W.; Delpierre, P.; Deneuville, A.; Dulinski, W.; Eijk, B. van; Fallou, A.; Fizzotti, F.; Foulon, F.; Friedl, M.; Gan, K.K.; Gheeraert, E.; Grigoriev, E.; Hallewell, G.; Hall-Wilton, R.; Han, S.; Hrubec, J.; Husson, D.; Kagan, H.; Kania, D.; Kaplon, J.; Karl, C.; Kass, R.; Knoepfle, K.T.; Krammer, M.; Logiudice, A.; Lu, R.; Manfredi, P.F.; Manfredotti, C.; Marshall, R.D.; Meier, D.; Mishina, M.; Oh, A.; Pan, L.S.; Palmieri, V.G.; Pernicka, M.; Peitz, A.; Pirollo, S.; Polesello, P.; Pretzl, K.; Procario, M.; Re, V.; Riester, J.L.; Roe, S.; Roff, D.; Rudge, A.; Runolfsson, O.; Russ, J.; Schnetzer, S.; Sciortino, S.; Speziali, V.; Stelzer, H.; Stone, R.; Suter, B.; Tapper, R.J.; Tesarek, R.; Trawick, M.; Trischuk, W.; Vittone, E.; Wagner, A.; Walsh, A.M.; Wedenig, R.; Weilhammer, P.; White, C.; Zeuner, W.; Ziock, H.; Zoeller, M.

    1999-01-01

    The paper reviews measurements of the radiation hardness of CVD diamond for 24 GeV/c proton irradiation at fluences up to 5 * 10 15 protons/cm 2 . The results not only show radiation damage but also an annealing effect that is dominant at levels around 10 15 protons/cm 2 . A model describing both effects is introduced, enabling a prediction of the distribution curve of the charge signal for other levels

  15. Parameterisation of radiation effects on CVD diamond for proton irradiation

    Hartjes, F.; Adam, W.; Bauer, C.; Berdermann, E.; Bergonzo, P.; Bogani, F.; Borchi, E.; Brambilla, A.; Bruzzi, M.; Colledani, C.; Conway, J.; Dabrowski, W.; Delpierre, P.; Deneuville, A.; Dulinski, W.; Eijk, B. van; Fallou, A.; Fizzotti, F.; Foulon, F.; Friedl, M.; Gan, K.K.; Gheeraert, E.; Grigoriev, E.; Hallewell, G.; Hall-Wilton, R.; Han, S.; Hrubec, J.; Husson, D.; Kagan, H.; Kania, D.; Kaplon, J.; Karl, C.; Kass, R.; Knoepfle, K.T.; Krammer, M.; Logiudice, A.; Lu, R.; Manfredi, P.F.; Manfredotti, C.; Marshall, R.D.; Meier, D.; Mishina, M.; Oh, A.; Pan, L.S.; Palmieri, V.G.; Pernicka, M.; Peitz, A.; Pirollo, S.; Polesello, P.; Pretzl, K.; Procario, M.; Re, V.; Riester, J.L.; Roe, S.; Roff, D.; Rudge, A.; Runolfsson, O.; Russ, J.; Schnetzer, S.; Sciortino, S.; Speziali, V.; Stelzer, H.; Stone, R.; Suter, B.; Tapper, R.J.; Tesarek, R.; Trawick, M.; Trischuk, W.; Vittone, E.; Wagner, A.; Walsh, A.M.; Wedenig, R.; Weilhammer, P.; White, C.; Zeuner, W.; Ziock, H.; Zoeller, M

    1999-08-01

    The paper reviews measurements of the radiation hardness of CVD diamond for 24 GeV/c proton irradiation at fluences up to 5{sup *}10{sup 15} protons/cm{sup 2}. The results not only show radiation damage but also an annealing effect that is dominant at levels around 10{sup 15} protons/cm{sup 2}. A model describing both effects is introduced, enabling a prediction of the distribution curve of the charge signal for other levels.

  16. CVD diamonds as thermoluminescent detectors for medical applications

    Marczewska, B.; Olko, P.; Nesladek, M.; Waligorski, M.P.R.; Kerremans, Y.

    2002-01-01

    Diamond is believed to be a promising material for medical dosimetry due to its tissue equivalence, mechanical and radiation hardness, and lack of solubility in water or in disinfecting agents. A number of diamond samples, obtained under different growth conditions at Limburg University, using the chemical vapour deposition (CVD) technique, was tested as thermoluminescence dosemeters. Their TL glow curve, TL response after doses of gamma rays, fading, and so on were studied at dose levels and for radiation modalities typical for radiotherapy. The investigated CVD diamonds displayed sensitivity comparable with that of MTS-N (Li:Mg,Ti) detectors, signal stability (reproducibility after several readouts) below 10% (1 SD) and no fading was found four days after irradiation. A dedicated CVD diamond plate was grown, cut into 20 detector chips (3x3x0.5 mm) and used for measuring the dose-depth distribution at different depths in a water phantom, for 60 Co and six MV X ray radiotherapy beams. Due to the sensitivity of diamond to ambient light, it was difficult to achieve reproducibility comparable with that of standard LiF detectors. (author)

  17. Nitrogen and hydrogen related infrared absorption in CVD diamond films

    Titus, E. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 (Portugal)]. E-mail: elby@mec.ua.pt; Ali, N. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 (Portugal); Cabral, G. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 (Portugal); Madaleno, J.C. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 (Portugal); Neto, V.F. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 (Portugal); Gracio, J. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 (Portugal); Ramesh Babu, P [Materials Ireland, Polymer research Centre, School of Physics, Dublin (Ireland); Sikder, A.K. [Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Bombay (India); Okpalugo, T.I. [Northern Ireland Bio-Engineering Centre, NIBEC, University of Ulster (United Kingdom); Misra, D.S. [Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Bombay (India)

    2006-09-25

    In this paper, we investigate on the presence of hydrogen and nitrogen related infrared absorptions in chemical vapour deposited (CVD) diamond films. Investigations were carried out in cross sections of diamond windows, deposited using hot filament CVD (HFCVD). The results of Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) and Raman spectroscopy carried out in a cross section of self-standing diamond sheets are presented. The FTIR spectra showed several features that have not been reported before. In order to confirm the frequency of nitrogen related vibrations, ab-initio calculations were carried out using GAMESS program. The investigations showed the presence of several C-N related peaks in one-phonon (1000-1333 cm{sup -1}). The deconvolution of the spectra in the three-phonon region (2700-3150 cm{sup -1}) also showed a number of vibration modes corresponding to sp {sup m}CH {sub n} phase of carbon. Elastic recoil detection analysis (ERDA) was employed to compare the H content measured using FTIR technique. Using these measurements we point out that the oscillator strength of the different IR modes varies depending upon the structure and H content of CVD diamond sheets.

  18. Thermoluminescent properties of CVD diamond: applications to ionising radiation dosimetry

    Petitfils, A.

    2007-09-01

    Remarkable properties of synthetic diamond (human soft tissue equivalence, chemical stability, non-toxicity) make this material suitable for medical application as thermoluminescent dosimeter (TLD). This work highlights the interest of this material as radiotherapy TLD. In the first stage of this work, we looked after thermoluminescent (TL) and dosimetric properties of polycrystalline diamond made by Chemically Vapor Deposited (CVD) synthesis. Dosimetric characteristics are satisfactory as TLD for medical application. Luminescence thermal quenching on diamond has been investigated. This phenomenon leads to a decrease of dosimetric TL peak sensitivity when the heating rate increases. The second part of this work analyses the use of synthetic diamond as TLD in radiotherapy. Dose profiles, depth dose distributions and the cartography of an electron beam obtained with our samples are in very good agreement with results from an ionisation chamber. It is clearly shown that CVD) diamond is of interest to check beams of treatment accelerators. The use of these samples in a control of treatment with Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy underlines good response of synthetic diamond in high dose gradient areas. These results indicate that CVD diamond is a promising material for radiotherapy dosimetry. (author)

  19. Investigation of CVD graphene topography and surface electrical properties

    Wang, Rui; Pearce, Ruth; Gallop, John; Patel, Trupti; Pollard, Andrew; Hao, Ling; Zhao, Fang; Jackman, Richard; Klein, Norbert; Zurutuza, Amaia

    2016-01-01

    Combining scanning probe microscopy techniques to characterize samples of graphene, a selfsupporting, single atomic layer hexagonal lattice of carbon atoms, provides far more information than a single technique can. Here we focus on graphene grown by chemical vapour deposition (CVD), grown by passing carbon containing gas over heated copper, which catalyses single atomic layer growth of graphene on its surface. To be useful for applications the graphene must be transferred onto other substrates. Following transfer it is important to characterize the CVD graphene. We combine atomic force microscopy (AFM) and scanning Kelvin probe microscopy (SKPM) to reveal several properties of the transferred film. AFM alone provides topographic information, showing ‘wrinkles’ where the transfer provided incomplete substrate attachment. SKPM measures the surface potential indicating regions with different electronic properties for example graphene layer number. By combining AFM and SKPM local defects and impurities can also be observed. Finally, Raman spectroscopy can confirm the structural properties of the graphene films, such as the number of layers and level of disorder, by observing the peaks present. We report example data on a number of CVD samples from different sources. (paper)

  20. Mass production of CNTs using CVD multi-quartz tubes

    Yousef, Samy; Mohamed, Alaa [Dept. of Production Engineering and Printing Technology, Akhbar Elyom Academy, Giza (Egypt)

    2016-11-15

    Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) have become the backbone of modern industries, including lightweight and heavy-duty industrial applications. Chemical vapor deposition (CVD) is considered as the most common method used to synthesize high yield CNTs. This work aims to develop the traditional CVD for the mass production of more economical CNTs, meeting the growing CNT demands among consumers by increasing the number of three particular reactors. All reactors housing is connected by small channels to provide the heat exchange possibility between the chambers, thereby decreasing synthesis time and reducing heat losses inside the ceramic body of the furnace. The novel design is simple and cheap with a lower reacting time and heat loss compared with the traditional CVD design. Methane, hydrogen, argon, and catalyzed iron nanoparticles were used as a carbon source and catalyst during the synthesis process. In addition, CNTs were produced using only a single quartz tube for comparison. The produced samples were examined using XRD, TEM, SEM, FTIR, and TGA. The results showed that the yield of CNTs increases by 287 % compared with those synthesized with a single quartz tube. Moreover, the total synthesis time of CNTs decreases by 37 % because of decreased heat leakage.

  1. The loss of species: mangrove extinction risk and geographic areas of global concern.

    Beth A Polidoro

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Mangrove species are uniquely adapted to tropical and subtropical coasts, and although relatively low in number of species, mangrove forests provide at least US $1.6 billion each year in ecosystem services and support coastal livelihoods worldwide. Globally, mangrove areas are declining rapidly as they are cleared for coastal development and aquaculture and logged for timber and fuel production. Little is known about the effects of mangrove area loss on individual mangrove species and local or regional populations. To address this gap, species-specific information on global distribution, population status, life history traits, and major threats were compiled for each of the 70 known species of mangroves. Each species' probability of extinction was assessed under the Categories and Criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Eleven of the 70 mangrove species (16% are at elevated threat of extinction. Particular areas of geographical concern include the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Central America, where as many as 40% of mangroves species present are threatened with extinction. Across the globe, mangrove species found primarily in the high intertidal and upstream estuarine zones, which often have specific freshwater requirements and patchy distributions, are the most threatened because they are often the first cleared for development of aquaculture and agriculture. The loss of mangrove species will have devastating economic and environmental consequences for coastal communities, especially in those areas with low mangrove diversity and high mangrove area or species loss. Several species at high risk of extinction may disappear well before the next decade if existing protective measures are not enforced.

  2. The loss of species: mangrove extinction risk and geographic areas of global concern.

    Polidoro, Beth A; Carpenter, Kent E; Collins, Lorna; Duke, Norman C; Ellison, Aaron M; Ellison, Joanna C; Farnsworth, Elizabeth J; Fernando, Edwino S; Kathiresan, Kandasamy; Koedam, Nico E; Livingstone, Suzanne R; Miyagi, Toyohiko; Moore, Gregg E; Ngoc Nam, Vien; Ong, Jin Eong; Primavera, Jurgenne H; Salmo, Severino G; Sanciangco, Jonnell C; Sukardjo, Sukristijono; Wang, Yamin; Yong, Jean Wan Hong

    2010-04-08

    Mangrove species are uniquely adapted to tropical and subtropical coasts, and although relatively low in number of species, mangrove forests provide at least US $1.6 billion each year in ecosystem services and support coastal livelihoods worldwide. Globally, mangrove areas are declining rapidly as they are cleared for coastal development and aquaculture and logged for timber and fuel production. Little is known about the effects of mangrove area loss on individual mangrove species and local or regional populations. To address this gap, species-specific information on global distribution, population status, life history traits, and major threats were compiled for each of the 70 known species of mangroves. Each species' probability of extinction was assessed under the Categories and Criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Eleven of the 70 mangrove species (16%) are at elevated threat of extinction. Particular areas of geographical concern include the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Central America, where as many as 40% of mangroves species present are threatened with extinction. Across the globe, mangrove species found primarily in the high intertidal and upstream estuarine zones, which often have specific freshwater requirements and patchy distributions, are the most threatened because they are often the first cleared for development of aquaculture and agriculture. The loss of mangrove species will have devastating economic and environmental consequences for coastal communities, especially in those areas with low mangrove diversity and high mangrove area or species loss. Several species at high risk of extinction may disappear well before the next decade if existing protective measures are not enforced.

  3. Cardiovascular risk-factor knowledge and risk perception among HIV-infected adults.

    Cioe, Patricia A; Crawford, Sybil L; Stein, Michael D

    2014-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has emerged as a major cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected adults. Research in noninfected populations has suggested that knowledge of CVD risk factors significantly influences perceptions of risk. This cross-sectional study describes CVD risk factor knowledge and risk perception in HIV-infected adults. We recruited 130 HIV-infected adults (mean age = 48 years, 62% male, 56% current smokers, mean years since HIV diagnosis, 14.7). The mean CVD risk factor knowledge score was fairly high. However, controlling for age, CVD risk factor knowledge was not predictive of perceived risk [F(1, 117) = 0.13, p > .05]. Estimated risk and perceived risk were weakly but significantly correlated; r (126) = .24, p = .01. HIV-infected adults are at increased risk for CVD. Despite having adequate risk-factor knowledge, CVD risk perception was inaccurate. Improving risk perception and developing CVD risk reduction interventions for this population are imperative. Copyright © 2014 Association of Nurses in AIDS Care. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. The CEOS Global Observation Strategy for Disaster Risk Management: An Enterprise Architect's View

    Moe, K.; Evans, J. D.; Frye, S.

    2013-12-01

    The Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Working Group on Information Systems and Services (WGISS), on behalf of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), is defining an enterprise architecture (known as GA.4.D) for the use of satellite observations in international disaster management. This architecture defines the scope and structure of the disaster management enterprise (based on disaster types and phases); its processes (expressed via use cases / system functions); and its core values (in particular, free and open data sharing via standard interfaces). The architecture also details how a disaster management enterprise describes, obtains, and handles earth observations and data products for decision-support; and how it draws on distributed computational services for streamlined operational capability. We have begun to apply this architecture to a new CEOS initiative, the Global Observation Strategy for Disaster Risk Management (DRM). CEOS is defining this Strategy based on the outcomes of three pilot projects focused on seismic hazards, volcanoes, and floods. These pilots offer a unique opportunity to characterize and assess the impacts (benefits / costs) of the GA.4.D architecture in practice. In particular, the DRM Floods Pilot is applying satellite-based optical and radar data to flood mitigation, warning, and response, including monitoring and modeling at regional to global scales. It is focused on serving user needs and building local institutional / technical capacity in the Caribbean, Southern Africa, and Southeast Asia. In the context of these CEOS DRM Pilots, we are characterizing where and how the GA.4D architecture helps participants to: - Understand the scope and nature of hazard events quickly and accurately - Assure timely delivery of observations into analysis, modeling, and decision-making - Streamline user access to products - Lower barriers to entry for users or suppliers - Streamline or focus field operations in

  5. Different anthropometric adiposity measures and their association with cardiovascular disease risk factors: a meta-analysis

    van Dijk, S. B.; Takken, T.; Prinsen, E. C.; Wittink, H.

    2012-01-01

    Objectives To investigate which anthropometric adiposity measure has the strongest association with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in Caucasian men and women without a history of CVD. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods We searched databases for studies reporting correlations between anthropometric adiposity measures and CVD risk factors in Caucasian subjects without a history of CVD. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, waist-to-height ra...

  6. Geology for Global Development: Mobilising and equipping young geologists to engage in disaster risk reduction

    Gill, Joel

    2016-04-01

    Geology for Global Development (GfGD) is a not-for-profit organisation working to mobilise and equip geologists to engage in all aspects of sustainable development, including disaster risk reduction (DRR). Geologists have a crucial role to play in DRR, and the recently agreed Sendai Framework for DRR 2015-2030. This framework aims to significantly reduce loss of lives and livelihoods due to disasters. The geology community have an understanding of the Earth, its physical structure, and the processes by which it is constantly being shaped which are of particular relevance to Priorities for Action 1 and 4 noted within the Sendai Framework. Effective engagement by geologists, however, requires many skills beyond the standard geology curriculum. Cultural understanding, cross-disciplinary communication, diplomacy, community mobilization and participation, knowledge exchange, and an understanding of social science research tools are commonly necessary for effective research and engagement in the science-policy-practice interface. Topical and disciplinary knowledge, such as understanding social vulnerability, international policy frameworks and development theory are also rarely included in the education and professional training of a young geologist. Through the work of GfGD, we are training young geologists with these skills and the supporting knowledge required to make an effective contribution to reducing disaster risk, support civil society, empower communities and help to strengthen resilience. University chapters have been established in 14 major UK and Irish universities, coordinating extra-curricular seminars, workshops and discussion activities. Our work is currently focused on supporting young geologists, but we are increasingly a respected voice at international geoscience forums that gather a wide range of students and professionals. Wider (national and international) activities include conferences, placements and facilitating youth engagement in education

  7. Does productivity influence priority setting? A case study from the field of CVD prevention

    Löfroth Emil

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In this case study, different measures aimed at preventing cardiovascular diseases (CVD in different target groups have been ranked based on cost per QALY from a health care sector perspective and from a societal perspective, respectively. The innovation in this study is to introduce a budget constraint and thereby show exactly which groups would be included or excluded in treatment or intervention programs based on the two perspectives. Approximately 90% of the groups are included in both perspectives. Mainly elderly women are excluded when the societal perspective is used and mainly middle-aged men are excluded when the health care sector perspective is used. Elderly women have a higher risk of CVD and generally lower income than middle-aged men. Thus the exclusion of older women in the societal perspective is not a trivial consequence since it is in conflict with the general interpretation of the "treatment according to need" rule, as well as societal goals regarding gender equality and fairness. On the other hand, the exclusion of working individuals in the health care perspective undermines a growth of public resources for future health care for the elderly. The extent and consequences of this conflict are unclear and empirical studies of this problem are rare.

  8. Pharmacological Targeting of the Atherogenic Dyslipidemia Complex: The Next Frontier in CVD Prevention Beyond Lowering LDL Cholesterol.

    Xiao, Changting; Dash, Satya; Morgantini, Cecilia; Hegele, Robert A; Lewis, Gary F

    2016-07-01

    Notwithstanding the effectiveness of lowering LDL cholesterol, residual CVD risk remains in high-risk populations, including patients with diabetes, likely contributed to by non-LDL lipid abnormalities. In this Perspectives in Diabetes article, we emphasize that changing demographics and lifestyles over the past few decades have resulted in an epidemic of the "atherogenic dyslipidemia complex," the main features of which include hypertriglyceridemia, low HDL cholesterol levels, qualitative changes in LDL particles, accumulation of remnant lipoproteins, and postprandial hyperlipidemia. We briefly review the underlying pathophysiology of this form of dyslipidemia, in particular its association with insulin resistance, obesity, and type 2 diabetes, and the marked atherogenicity of this condition. We explain the failure of existing classes of therapeutic agents such as fibrates, niacin, and cholesteryl ester transfer protein inhibitors that are known to modify components of the atherogenic dyslipidemia complex. Finally, we discuss targeted repurposing of existing therapies and review promising new therapeutic strategies to modify the atherogenic dyslipidemia complex. We postulate that targeting the central abnormality of the atherogenic dyslipidemia complex, the elevation of triglyceride-rich lipoprotein particles, represents a new frontier in CVD prevention and is likely to prove the most effective strategy in correcting most aspects of the atherogenic dyslipidemia complex, thereby preventing CVD events. © 2016 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

  9. Trait acclimation mitigates mortality risks of tropical canopy trees under global warming

    Frank eSterck

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25-35ºC and ambient CO2 concentrations (390-800 ppm predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10-20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2ºC, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change.

  10. Surviving global risks through the preservation of humanity's data on the Moon

    Turchin, Alexey; Denkenberger, David

    2018-05-01

    Many global catastrophic risks are threatening human civilization, and a number of ideas have been suggested for preventing or surviving them. However, if these interventions fail, society could preserve information about the human race and human DNA samples in the hopes that the next civilization on Earth will be able to reconstruct Homo sapiens and our culture. This requires information preservation of an order of magnitude of 100 million years, a little-explored topic thus far. It is important that a potential future civilization discovers this information as early as possible, thus a beacon should accompany the message in order to increase visibility. The message should ideally contain information about how humanity was destroyed, perhaps including a continuous recording until the end. This could help the potential future civilization to survive. The best place for long-term data storage is under the surface of the Moon, with the beacon constructed as a complex geometric figure drawn by small craters or trenches around a central point. There are several cost-effective options for sending the message as opportunistic payloads on different planned landers.

  11. Assessing the Risk of Establishment of Rhagoletis cerasi (Diptera: Tephritidae) in the United States and Globally.

    Wakie, Tewodros T; Yee, Wee L; Neven, Lisa G

    2018-05-28

    The European cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis cerasi (L.) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is a highly destructive pest of cherries (Prunus spp.) (Rosaceae) in Europe and Asia. In 2016, R. cerasi was detected in Ontario, Canada, and in 2017 in New York State, USA, the first records of this pest in North America. The initial detections in Canada caused concern for the major cherry-growing states of Michigan, Washington, Oregon, and California in the United States. Establishment of R. cerasi in the United States could restrict cherry exports to other markets and increase costs needed for fly control, but it is unknown if R. cerasi can establish in U.S. commercial cherry regions. Here, we used the CLIMEX ecological niche model to determine the risk of establishment of R. cerasi in the United States and globally. Within the United States under a no-irrigation scenario, R. cerasi would establish in the East and West Coasts; however, under an irrigation scenario, its distribution would expand to the major cherry-growing regions in the interior of central and eastern Washington and in California. Results also showed that if introduced, R. cerasi would likely establish in eastern China, Japan, the Koreas, Australia, New Zealand, South America, South Africa, Mexico, and Canada. Host plant (Prunus spp. and Lonicera spp. [Caprifoliaceae]) presence, although not included in models, would affect fly establishment. Our results stress the importance of surveying for R. cerasi to prevent its spread and establishment within the United States and other countries.

  12. Down-Side Risk Metrics as Portfolio Diversification Strategies across the Global Financial Crisis

    David E. Allen

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper features an analysis of the effectiveness of a range of portfolio diversification strategies, with a focus on down-side risk metrics, as a portfolio diversification strategy in a European market context. We apply these measures to a set of daily arithmetically-compounded returns, in U.S. dollar terms, on a set of ten market indices representing the major European markets for a nine-year period from the beginning of 2005 to the end of 2013. The sample period, which incorporates the periods of both the Global Financial Crisis (GFC and the subsequent European Debt Crisis (EDC, is a challenging one for the application of portfolio investment strategies. The analysis is undertaken via the examination of multiple investment strategies and a variety of hold-out periods and backtests. We commence by using four two-year estimation periods and a subsequent one-year investment hold out period, to analyse a naive 1/N diversification strategy and to contrast its effectiveness with Markowitz mean variance analysis with positive weights. Markowitz optimisation is then compared to various down-side investment optimisation strategies. We begin by comparing Markowitz with CVaR, and then proceed to evaluate the relative effectiveness of Markowitz with various draw-down strategies, utilising a series of backtests. Our results suggest that none of the more sophisticated optimisation strategies appear to dominate naive diversification.

  13. Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

    Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P. R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

    2016-01-01

    There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area) to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25–35°C) and ambient CO2 concentrations (390–800 ppm) predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10–20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2°C, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change. PMID:27242814

  14. Contemplating Catastrophe: conveying the causes, effects, risks of and responses to global change

    McCaffrey, M.; Berbeco, M.; Lahsen, M.

    2013-12-01

    Humans are changing nature and undermining the life supporting systems of the planet to an unprecedented extent, eroding more soil than all natural processes combined, fixing more nitrogen than all the bacteria on the planet, and substantially altering the land cover and chemistry of the atmosphere and waters. Yet, especially in the United States but also elsewhere, environmental awareness and policy action has been lackluster and hesitant due to a range of factors, including manufactured doubt and denial, psychological, cultural and economic investments in maintenance of status quo, and - when concern does exist - lack of knowledge about how to foster effective change. This paper will examine how recent research findings on human impacts on the planet are being conveyed to non-technical audiences and discuss challenges and opportunities to provide the public with the relevant knowledge and knowhow to address the risks of, and responses to global change. It will argue that a second-wave scientific literacy consisting in deeper understanding of the scientific process must be nurtured as part of a process to capacitate populations, especially youths, to navigate conflicting evidence and claims that surround many environmental threats. Such literacy must be fostered through 'learning conversations,' community and capacity-building, and integrated education, communication and outreach infusing science and solutions to foster a more effective approach to confronting potential catastrophe. 25 February 2013 at 16:30 Pacific Time

  15. Migrants and emerging public health issues in a globalized world: threats, risks and challenges, an evidence-based framework.

    Gushulak, Bd; Weekers, J; Macpherson, Dw

    2009-01-01

    International population mobility is an underlying factor in the emergence of public health threats and risks that must be managed globally. These risks are often related, but not limited, to transmissible pathogens. Mobile populations can link zones of disease emergence to lowprevalence or nonendemic areas through rapid or high-volume international movements, or both. Against this background of human movement, other global processes such as economics, trade, transportation, environment and climate change, as well as civil security influence the health impacts of disease emergence. Concurrently, global information systems, together with regulatory frameworks for disease surveillance and reporting, affect organizational and public awareness of events of potential public health significance. International regulations directed at disease mitigation and control have not kept pace with the growing challenges associated with the volume, speed, diversity, and disparity of modern patterns of human movement. The thesis that human population mobility is itself a major determinant of global public health is supported in this article by review of the published literature from the perspective of determinants of health (such as genetics/biology, behavior, environment, and socioeconomics), population-based disease prevalence differences, existing national and international health policies and regulations, as well as inter-regional shifts in population demographics and health outcomes. This paper highlights some of the emerging threats and risks to public health, identifies gaps in existing frameworks to manage health issues associated with migration, and suggests changes in approach to population mobility, globalization, and public health. The proposed integrated approach includes a broad spectrum of stakeholders ranging from individual health-care providers to policy makers and international organizations that are primarily involved in global health management, or are influenced

  16. Assessing Progress in Reducing the At-Risk Population after 13 Years of the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis

    Hooper, Pamela J.; Chu, Brian K.; Mikhailov, Alexei; Ottesen, Eric A.; Bradley, Mark

    2014-01-01

    Background In 1997, the World Health Assembly adopted Resolution 50.29, committing to the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem, subsequently targeted for 2020. The initial estimates were that 1.2 billion people were at-risk for LF infection globally. Now, 13 years after the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) began implementing mass drug administration (MDA) against LF in 2000—during which over 4.4 billion treatments have been distributed in 56 endemic countries—it is most appropriate to estimate the impact that the MDA has had on reducing the population at risk of LF. Methodology/Principal Findings To assess GPELF progress in reducing the population at-risk for LF, we developed a model based on defining reductions in risk of infection among cohorts of treated populations following each round of MDA. The model estimates that the number of people currently at risk of infection decreased by 46% to 789 million through 2012. Conclusions/Significance Important progress has been made in the global efforts to eliminate LF, but significant scale-up is required over the next 8 years to reach the 2020 elimination goal. PMID:25411843

  17. Genetic risks for cardiovascular diseases

    Zafarmand, M.H.

    2008-01-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD), which involves the heart, brain, and peripheral circulation, is a major health problem world-wide. The development of atherosclerosis is a complex process, and several established risk factors are involved. Nevertheless, these established risk factors

  18. Audit Manager Risk Behaviour in a Global Economy – a Research of the Theories on the Determinants of Risk Behaviour

    Ionescu Iancu Octavian

    2010-01-01

    In an increasingly globalised economy, the quality and professionalism of business decisions are intrinsically linked to the risk behaviour of decision makers. The business decision makers are usually faced with a degree of uncertainty when they have to assess risk and make decisions. This paper examines risk behaviour from an audit firm manager perspective and from an academic perspective. The emphasis is on the managerial risk behaviour in business decision making. The research objective is...

  19. Trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections pose a correlated risk to global agriculture

    Anderson, W. B.; Seager, R.; Cane, M. A.; Baethgen, W.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of interannual climate variability, particularly in the Pacific Basin. ENSO life-cycles tend to evolve over multiple years, as do the associated trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections. This analysis, however, represents the first attempt to characterize the structure of the risk posed by ENSO to wheat, maize and soybean production across the Pacific Basin. Our results indicate that most ENSO teleconnections relevant for crop flowering seasons are the result of a single trans-Pacific circulation anomaly that develops in boreal summer and persists through the spring. During the late summer and early fall of a developing ENSO event, the tropical Pacific forces an atmospheric anomaly in the midlatitudes that spans the Pacific Basin. This teleconnection directly links the soybean and maize growing seasons of the US, Mexico and China. It also connects the wheat growing seasons of Argentina, southern Brazil and Australia. The ENSO event peaks in boreal winter, when the atmospheric circulation anomalies intensify and affect maize and soybeans in southeast South America. As the event decays, the ENSO-induced circulation anomalies persist through the wheat flowering seasons in China and the US. While the prospect of ENSO forcing simultaneous droughts in major food producing regions seems disastrous, there may be a silver lining from the perspective of global food security: trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections to yields are often offsetting between major producing regions in the eastern and western portions of the Pacific Basin. El Niños tend to create good maize and soybean growing conditions in the US and southeast South America, but poor growing conditions in China, Mexico and northeast Brazil. The opposite is true during La Niña. Wheat growing conditions in southeast South America generally have the opposite sign of those in Australia. Finally, we investigate how trade networks interact with this structure of ENSO

  20. Under-utilisation of preventive medication in patients with cardiovascular disease is greatest in younger age groups (PREDICT-CVD 15).

    Mehta, Suneela; Wells, Sue; Riddell, Tania; Kerr, Andrew; Pylypchuk, Romana; Marshall, Roger; Ameratunga, Shanthi; Chan, Wing Cheuk; Thornley, Simon; Crengle, Sue; Harrison, Jeff; Drury, Paul; Elley, C Raina; Bell, Fionna; Jackson, Rod

    2011-06-01

    Blood pressure-lowering (BPL) and lipid-lowering (LL) medications together reduce estimated absolute five-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk by >40%. International studies indicate that the proportion of people with CVD receiving pharmacotherapy increases with advancing age. To compare BPL and LL medications, by sociodemographic characteristics, for patients with known CVD in primary care settings. The study population included patients aged 35-74 with known CVD assessed in primary care from July 2006 to October 2009 using a web-based computerised decision support system (PREDICT) for risk assessment and management. Clinical data linked anonymously to national sociodemographic and pharmaceutical dispensing databases. Differences in dispensing BPL and LL medications in six months before first PREDICT assessment was analysed according to age, sex, ethnicity and deprivation. Of 7622 people with CVD, 1625 <55 years old, 2862 were women and 4609 lived in deprived areas (NZDep quintiles 4/5). The study population included 4249 European, 1556 Maori, 1151 Pacific and 329 Indian peoples. BPL medications were dispensed to 81%, LL medications to 73%, both BPL and LL medications to 67%, and 87% received either class of medication. Compared with people aged 65-75, people aged 35-44 were 30-40% less likely and those aged 45-54 were 10-15% less likely to be dispensed BPL, LL medications or both. There were minimal differences in likelihood of dispensing according to sex, ethnicity or deprivation. BPL and LL medications are under-utilised in patients with known CVD in New Zealand. Only two-thirds of patients in this cohort are on both. Younger patients are considerably less likely to be on recommended medications.

  1. Shared Genetic Aetiology between Cognitive Ability and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors: Generation Scotland's Scottish Family Health Study

    Luciano, Michelle; Batty, G. David; McGilchrist, Mark; Linksted, Pamela; Fitzpatrick, Bridie; Jackson, Cathy; Pattie, Alison; Dominiczak, Anna F.; Morris, Andrew D.; Smith, Blair H.; Porteous, David; Deary, Ian J.

    2010-01-01

    People with higher general cognitive ability in early life have more favourable levels of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in adulthood and CVD itself. The mechanism of these associations is not known. Here we examine whether general cognitive ability and CVD risk factors share genetic and/or environmental aetiology. In this large,…

  2. Obesity and Hypertension, Heart Failure, and Coronary Heart Disease—Risk Factor, Paradox, and Recommendations for Weight Loss

    Artham, Surya M.; Lavie, Carl J.; Milani, Richard V.; Ventura, Hector O.

    2009-01-01

    Obesity prevalence has reached epidemic proportions and is independently associated with numerous cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, including diabetes mellitus, hypertension, dyslipidemia, cancers, sleep apnea, and other major CVDs. Obesity has significant negative impact on CVD, including hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, and arrhythmias via its maladaptive effects on individual CVD risk factors and cardiac structure and function. Despite this negative association...

  3. Nucleation of microwave plasma CVD diamond on molybdenum (Mo) substrate

    Inderjeet, K.; Ramesh, S.

    2000-01-01

    Molybdenum is a metal, which is gaining increasing significance in industrial applications. The main use of Mo is as all alloying element added in small amounts to steel, irons and non- ferrous alloys in order to enhance the strength, toughness and wear resistance. Mo is also vastly being employed in the automotive and aircraft industries, mainly due to its low coefficient of friction. Diamond, on be other hand, is a unique material for innumerable applications because of its usual combination of physical and chemical properties. Several potential applications can be anticipated for diamond in many sectors including electronics, optics, as protective corrosion resistant coatings, cutting tools, etc. With the enhancement in science and technology, diamond microcrystals and thin films are now being produced from the vapour phase by a variety of chemical vapour deposition (CVD) techniques; such as microwave plasma CVD. With such technology being made available, it is envisage that diamond-coated molybdenum would further enhance the performance and to open up new avenue for Mo in various industries. Therefore, it is the aim of the present work to study the nucleation and growth of diamond particles on Mo surface by employing microwave plasma CVD (MAPCVD). In the present work, diamond deposition was carried out in several stages by varying the deposition distance. The nucleation and growth rate were studied using scanning electron microscopy (SEM). In addition, the existence of diamond was verified by X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis. It has been found that the nucleation and growth rate of diamond particles were influenced by the deposition height between the substrate and plasma. Under the optimum condition, well defined diamond crystallites distributed homogeneously throughout the surface, could be obtained. Some of the important parameters controlling the deposition and growth of diamond particles on Mo surface are discussed. (author)

  4. Multivariate Models to Forecast Portfolio Value at Risk: from the Dot- Com crisis to the global financial crisis

    Manuel Sousa Gabrie

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed market risk of an international investment portfolio by means of a new methodological proposal based on Value-at- Risk, using the covariance matrix of multivariate GARCH-type models and the extreme value theory to realize if an international diversification strategy minimizes market risk, and to determine if the VaR methodology adequately captures market risk, by applying Backtesting tests. To this end, we considered twelve international stock indexes, accounting for about 62% of the world stock market capitalization, and chose the period from the Dot-Com crisis to the current global financial crisis. Results show that the proposed methodology is a good alternative to accommodate the high market turbulence and can be considered as an adequate portfolio risk management instrument.

  5. A global airport-based risk model for the spread of dengue infection via the air transport network.

    Lauren Gardner

    Full Text Available The number of travel-acquired dengue infections has seen a consistent global rise over the past decade. An increased volume of international passenger air traffic originating from regions with endemic dengue has contributed to a rise in the number of dengue cases in both areas of endemicity and elsewhere. This paper reports results from a network-based risk assessment model which uses international passenger travel volumes, travel routes, travel distances, regional populations, and predictive species distribution models (for the two vector species, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus to quantify the relative risk posed by each airport in importing passengers with travel-acquired dengue infections. Two risk attributes are evaluated: (i the risk posed by through traffic at each stopover airport and (ii the risk posed by incoming travelers to each destination airport. The model results prioritize optimal locations (i.e., airports for targeted dengue surveillance. The model is easily extendible to other vector-borne diseases.

  6. Stress analysis of CVD diamond window for ECH system

    Takahashi, Koji

    2001-03-01

    The stress analysis of a chemical vapor deposition (CVD) diamond window for Electron Cyclotron Heating and Current Drive (ECH/ECCD) system of fusion reactors is described. It was found that the real size diamond window (φ aper =70mm, t=2.25mm) withstood 14.5 atm. (1.45 MPa). The calculation results of the diamond window by ABAQUS code agree well with the results of the pressure test. The design parameters of the torus diamond window for a vacuum and a safety barrier were also obtained. (author)

  7. CVD diamond sensor for UV-photon detection

    Periale, L; Gervino, G; Lamarina, A M; Palmisano, C; Periale, R; Picchi, P

    2012-01-01

    A new generation of UV photosensors, based on single crystal Chemical Vapour Deposition (CVD) diamonds to work optically coupled with large volume two-phase liquid-Ar (LAr) or liquid-Xe (LXe) detectors nowadays under design for the next generation of WIMPs experiments, is under development. Preliminary tests and first calibrations show these devices can have better performance than the existing UV sensitive detectors (higher photosensitivity and better signal-to-noise ratio). I-V characteristics, dark current measurements, linearity response to X-ray irradiation, and alpha-particle energy resolution are reported and discussed. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. CVD Graphene/Ni Interface Evolution in Sulfuric Electrolyte

    Yivlialin, Rossella; Bussetti, Gianlorenzo; Duò, Lamberto

    2018-01-01

    Systems comprising single and multilayer graphene deposited on metals and immersed in acid environments have been investigated, with the aim of elucidating the mechanisms involved, for instance, in hydrogen production or metal protection from corrosion. In this work, a relevant system, namely...... chemical vapor deposited (CVD) multilayer graphene/Ni (MLGr/Ni), is studied when immersed in a diluted sulfuric electrolyte. The MLGr/Ni electrochemical and morphological properties are studied in situ and interpreted in light of the highly oriented pyrolytic graphite (HOPG) electrode behavior, when...... immersed in the same electrolyte. Following this interpretative framework, the dominant role of the Ni substrate in hydrogen production is clarified....

  9. Modeling Banking, Sovereign, and Macro Risk in a CCA Global VAR

    Dale F. Gray

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to develop a model framework for the analysis of interactions between banking sector risk, sovereign risk, corporate sector risk, real economic activity, and credit growth for 15 European countries and the United States. It is an integrated macroeconomic systemic risk model framework that draws on the advantages of forward-looking contingent claims analysis (CCA) risk indicators for the banking systems in each country, forward-looking CCA risk indicators for sover...

  10. The comparison of cardiovascular risk scores using two methods of substituting missing risk factor data in patient medical records

    Andrew Dalton

    2011-07-01

    Conclusions A simple method of substituting missing risk factor data can produce reliable estimates of CVD risk scores. Targeted screening for high CVD risk, using pre-existing electronic medical record data, does not require multiple imputation methods in risk estimation.

  11. A global, cross cultural study examining the relationship between employee health risk status and work performance metrics.

    Howarth, Ana; Quesada, Jose; Mills, Peter R

    2017-01-01

    Health risk assessments (HRA) are used by many organisations as a basis for developing relevant and targeted employee health and well-being interventions. However, many HRA's have a western-centric focus and therefore it is unclear whether the results can be directly extrapolated to those from non-western countries. More information regarding the differences in the associations between country status and health risks is needed along with a more global perspective of employee health risk factors and well-being overall. Therefore we aimed to i) quantify and compare associations for a number of health risk factors based on country status, and then ii) explore which characteristics can aid better prediction of well-being levels and in turn workplace productivity globally. Online employee HRA data collected from 254 multi-national companies, for the years 2013 through 2016 was analysed (n = 117,274). Multiple linear regression models were fitted, adjusting for age and gender, to quantify associations between country status and health risk factors. Separate regression models were used to assess the prediction of well-being measures related to productivity. On average, the developing countries were comprised of younger individuals with lower obesity rates and markedly higher job satisfaction compared to their developed country counterparts. However, they also reported higher levels of anxiety and depression, a greater number of health risks and lower job effectiveness. Assessment of key factors related to productivity found that region of residency was the biggest predictor of presenteeism and poor pain management was the biggest predictor of absenteeism. Clear differences in health risks exist between employees from developed and developing countries and these should be considered when addressing well-being and productivity in the global workforce.

  12. Information Seeking about Global Climate Change among Adolescents: The Role of Risk Perceptions, Efficacy Beliefs and Parental Influences

    Mead, Erin; Roser-Renouf, Connie; Rimal, Rajiv N.; Flora, June A.; Maibach, Edward W.; Leiserowitz, Anthony

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change is likely to have significant impacts on public health. Effective communication is critical to informing public decision making and behavior to mitigate climate change. An effective method of audience segmentation, the risk perception attitude (RPA) framework has been previously tested with other health behaviors and classifies people into 4 groups on the basis of their perceptions of risk and beliefs about personal efficacy. The 4 groups – indifference (low risk, weak efficacy), proactive (low risk, strong efficacy), avoidance (high risk, weak efficacy), and responsive (high risk, strong efficacy) – are hypothesized to differ in their self-protective behaviors and in their motivations to seek information. In this paper, we extend the RPA framework in two ways. First, we use it at the household level to determine whether parental classifications into the 4 groups are associated with their teenage children’s classification into the same 4 groups. Second, we predict adolescent information-seeking behaviors on the basis of their and their parents’ membership in the 4 RPA groups. Results (N = 523 parent-adolescent pairs) indicated that parental membership in the 4 RPA groups was significantly associated with children’s membership in the same 4 groups. Furthermore, the RPA framework was a significant predictor of adolescent information-seeking: those in the responsive and avoidance groups sought more information on climate change than the indifference group. Family communication on global warming was positively associated with adolescents’ information-seeking. Implications for interventions are discussed. PMID:22866024

  13. Childhood socioeconomic status and risk in early family environments: predictors of global sleep quality in college students.

    Counts, Cory J; Grubin, Fiona C; John-Henderson, Neha A

    2018-06-01

    Low socioeconomic status (SES) in childhood associates with poor sleep quality in adulthood. Separately, childhood family environments shape health into adulthood. Here, we investigated whether these early life factors independently or interactively inform global sleep quality in college students. Cross-sectional. College students at a state university (N = 391). As a measure of childhood SES, we asked participants to consider their families' socioeconomic standing relative to the rest of the society during their childhood. We used the Risky Family questionnaire to measure adversity and the presence of warmth and affection in the family environment during childhood, and the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index as a measure of current global sleep quality. We used linear regressions adjusting for age and sex to examine relationships between childhood SES, risk in childhood family environments, and global sleep quality. Lower childhood SES and greater risk in childhood family environments independently predicted poor sleep quality. Importantly, in low-risk family environments, there was no significant difference in sleep quality as a function of childhood SES. However, students who were from low childhood SES backgrounds who also reported high levels of risk in their early family environments had the worst sleep quality. Findings highlight the importance of considering socioeconomic and family environments in childhood as informants of sleep quality across the lifespan. Compromised sleep quality in college students could affect academic performance and health over time. Copyright © 2018 National Sleep Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. NEW MARKERS FOR CARDIOVASCULAR RISK: FROM STUDIES TO CLINICAL GUIDELINES

    D. A. Anichkov

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available New markers for cardiovascular disease (CVD risk are the subject of an intensive discussion in the scientific literature. The biomarkers (newlipid parameters, inflammatory markers and signs of subclinical atherosclerosis are candidates to be included in models to assess the cumulative risk of CVD. The paper considers the basic studies dealing with new markers of CVD risk and their place in current clinical recommendations.

  15. Treatment with liraglutide may improve markers of CVD reflected by reduced levels of apoB

    Engelbrechtsen, L.; Lundgren, J.; Wewer Albrechtsen, N. J.; Mahendran, Y.; Iepsen, E. W.; Finocchietto, P.; Jonsson, A. E.; Madsbad, S.; Holst, J. J.; Vestergaard, H.; Hansen, T.

    2017-01-01

    Summary Background Dislipidaemia and increased levels of apolipoprotein B (apoB) in individuals with obesity are risk factors for development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of weight loss and weight maintenance with and without liraglutide treatment on plasma lipid profiles and apoB. Methods Fifty‐eight individuals with obesity (body mass index 34.5 ± 3.0 kg/m2 [mean ± SD]) were included in this study. After 8 weeks on a very low‐calorie diet (800 kcal/day), participants were randomized to weight maintenance with meal replacements with or without liraglutide (1.2 mg daily) for 1 year. Plasma samples from before and after weight loss and after 1 year of weight maintenance were subjected to nuclear magnetic resonance‐based lipidomics analysis. Results After an 8‐week low‐calorie diet, study participants lost 12.0 ± 2.9 kg (mean ± SD) of their body weight, which was reflected in their lipid profiles (80 out of 124 lipids changed significantly), including reduced levels of apoB, total cholesterol, free cholesterol, remnant cholesterol, triglycerides, low‐density lipoprotein and very low‐density lipoprotein subclasses. After 1 year of maintained weight loss, the majority of the lipids had returned to pre‐weight loss levels even though weight loss was successfully maintained in both groups. Interestingly, apoB levels remained low in the liraglutide treated group (apoB change: 0.03 ± 0.02 mmol/L, p = 0.4) in contrast to an increase in the control group (apoB change: 0.06 ± 0.07 mmol/L, p = 0.02). Conclusion An 8‐week low‐calorie diet, in individuals with obesity, reduced plasma levels of lipids and the atherogenic marker apoB. After 1 year of weight maintenance, only study participants treated with liraglutide maintained reduced levels of apoB, despite similar body weight maintenance. Treatment with liraglutide may therefore reduce apoB levels and thus reflect lower

  16. Treatment with liraglutide may improve markers of CVD reflected by reduced levels of apoB.

    Engelbrechtsen, L; Lundgren, J; Wewer Albrechtsen, N J; Mahendran, Y; Iepsen, E W; Finocchietto, P; Jonsson, A E; Madsbad, S; Holst, J J; Vestergaard, H; Hansen, T; Torekov, S S

    2017-12-01

    Dislipidaemia and increased levels of apolipoprotein B (apoB) in individuals with obesity are risk factors for development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of weight loss and weight maintenance with and without liraglutide treatment on plasma lipid profiles and apoB. Fifty-eight individuals with obesity (body mass index 34.5 ± 3.0 kg/m 2 [mean ± SD]) were included in this study. After 8 weeks on a very low-calorie diet (800 kcal/day), participants were randomized to weight maintenance with meal replacements with or without liraglutide (1.2 mg daily) for 1 year. Plasma samples from before and after weight loss and after 1 year of weight maintenance were subjected to nuclear magnetic resonance-based lipidomics analysis. After an 8-week low-calorie diet, study participants lost 12.0 ± 2.9 kg (mean ± SD) of their body weight, which was reflected in their lipid profiles (80 out of 124 lipids changed significantly), including reduced levels of apoB, total cholesterol, free cholesterol, remnant cholesterol, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein and very low-density lipoprotein subclasses. After 1 year of maintained weight loss, the majority of the lipids had returned to pre-weight loss levels even though weight loss was successfully maintained in both groups. Interestingly, apoB levels remained low in the liraglutide treated group (apoB change: 0.03 ± 0.02 mmol/L, p = 0.4) in contrast to an increase in the control group (apoB change: 0.06 ± 0.07 mmol/L, p = 0.02). An 8-week low-calorie diet, in individuals with obesity, reduced plasma levels of lipids and the atherogenic marker apoB. After 1 year of weight maintenance, only study participants treated with liraglutide maintained reduced levels of apoB, despite similar body weight maintenance. Treatment with liraglutide may therefore reduce apoB levels and thus reflect lower CVD risk. Including apoB measurements in clinical practice when

  17. CVD-graphene growth on different polycrystalline transition metals

    M. P. Lavin-Lopez

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The chemical vapor deposition (CVD graphene growth on two polycrystalline transition metals (Ni and Cu was investigated in detail using Raman spectroscopy and optical microscopy as a way to synthesize graphene of the highest quality (i.e. uniform growth of monolayer graphene, which is considered a key issue for electronic devices. Key CVD process parameters (reaction temperature, CH4/H2flow rate ratio, total flow of gases (CH4+H2, reaction time were optimized for both metals in order to obtain the highest graphene uniformity and quality. The conclusions previously reported in literature about the performance of low and high carbon solubility metals in the synthesis of graphene and their associated reaction mechanisms, i.e. surface depositionand precipitation on cooling, respectively, was not corroborated by the results obtained in this work. Under the optimal reaction conditions, a large percentage of monolayer graphene was obtained over the Ni foil since the carbon saturation was not complete, allowing carbon atoms to be stored in the bulk metal, which could diffuse forming high quality monolayer graphene at the surface. However, under the optimal reaction conditions, the formation of a non-uniform mixture of few layers and multilayer graphene on the Cu foil was related to the presence of an excess of active carbon atoms on the Cu surface.

  18. Oxide Dispersion Strengthened Iron Aluminide by CVD Coated Powders

    Asit Biswas Andrew J. Sherman

    2006-09-25

    This I &I Category2 program developed chemical vapor deposition (CVD) of iron, aluminum and aluminum oxide coated iron powders and the availability of high temperature oxidation, corrosion and erosion resistant coating for future power generation equipment and can be used for retrofitting existing fossil-fired power plant equipment. This coating will provide enhanced life and performance of Coal-Fired Boilers components such as fire side corrosion on the outer diameter (OD) of the water wall and superheater tubing as well as on the inner diameter (ID) and OD of larger diameter headers. The program also developed a manufacturing route for readily available thermal spray powders for iron aluminide coating and fabrication of net shape component by powder metallurgy route using this CVD coated powders. This coating can also be applid on jet engine compressor blade and housing, industrial heat treating furnace fixtures, magnetic electronic parts, heating element, piping and tubing for fossil energy application and automotive application, chemical processing equipment , heat exchanger, and structural member of aircraft. The program also resulted in developing a new fabrication route of thermal spray coating and oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) iron aluminide composites enabling more precise control over material microstructures.

  19. A study of the thermoluminescent properties of CVD diamond detectors

    Marczewska, B.; Bilski, P.; Olko, P.; Rebisz, M.; Nesladek, M.; Waligorski, M.P.R.

    2002-01-01

    A batch of 20 diamond detectors obtained by the chemical vapour deposition (CVD) method at the Institute for Materials Research at the Limburg University, Belgium, was investigated with respect to their thermoluminescent (TL) properties. The investigated detectors demonstrate TL sensitivity similar to that of the standard LiF:Mg, Ti (MTS) thermoluminescent detectors, lack of fading after two weeks from irradiation and apparent linearity of dose response. In spite of the persistent fluctuation of individual detector sensitivity observed in this batch, a new annealing procedure improved the stability of the TL signal. It has been concluded that 1 h annealing at 350 C assures the highest reproducibility for this set of detectors. A 30% discrepancy of the value of the TL signal between individual detectors from the batch may be caused by non-uniform distribution of dopants in the volume of the CVD diamond. A prototype of a planar TL reader equipped with a CCD camera was employed in this investigation. (Abstract Copyright [2002], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

  20. Thermoluminescence in CVD diamond films: application to actinometric dosimetry

    Barboza-Flores, M.; Melendrez, R.; Chernov, V.; Castaneda, B.; Pedroza-Montero, M.; Gan, B.; Ahn, J.; Zhang, Q.; Yoon, S.F.

    2002-01-01

    Diamond is considered a tissue-equivalent material since its atomic number (Z=6) is close to the effective atomic number of biological tissue (Z=7.42). Such a situation makes it suitable for radiation detection purposes in medical applications. In the present work the analysis is reported of the thermoluminescence (TL) and dosimetric features of chemically vapour deposited (CVD) diamond film samples subjected to ultraviolet (UV) irradiation in the actinometric region. The TL glow curve shows peaks at 120, 220, 320 and 370 deg. C. The 120 and 370 deg. C peaks are too weak and the first one fades away in a few seconds after exposure. The overall room temperature fading shows a 50% TL decay 30 min after exposure. The 320 deg. C glow peak is considered to be the most adequate for dosimetric applications due to its low fading and linear TL behaviour as a function of UV dose in the 180-260 nm range. The TL excitation spectrum presents a broad band with at least two overlapped components around 205 and 220 nm. The results indicate that the TL behaviour of CVD diamond film can be a good alternative to the currently available dosemeter and detector in the actinometric region as well as in clinical and medical applications. (author)

  1. VOx effectively doping CVD-graphene for transparent conductive films

    Ji, Qinghua; Shi, Liangjing; Zhang, Qinghong; Wang, Weiqi; Zheng, Huifeng; Zhang, Yuzhi; Liu, Yangqiao; Sun, Jing

    2016-11-01

    Chemical vapor deposition(CVD)-synthesized graphene is potentially an alternative for tin-doped indium oxide (ITO) transparent conductive films (TCFs), however its sheet resistance is still too high to meet many demands. Vanadium oxide has been widely applied as smart window materials, however, no study has been reported to use it as dopant to improve the conductivity of graphene TCFs. In this study, we firstly reported that VOx doping can effectively lower the sheet resistance of CVD-graphene films while keeping its good optical properties, whose transmittance is as high as 86-90%. The optimized VOx-doped graphene exhibits a sheet resistance as low as 176 Ω/□, which decreases by 56% compared to the undoped graphene films. The doping process is convenient, stable, economical and easy to operate. What is more, VOx can effectively increase the work function(WF) of the film, making it more appropriate for use in solar cells. The evolution of the VOx species annealed at different temperatures below 400 °C has been detailed studied for the first time, based on which the doping mechanism is proposed. The prepared VOx doped graphene is expected to be a promising candidate for transparent conductive film purposes.

  2. Response of CVD diamond detectors to alpha radiation

    Souw, E.-K. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Meilunas, R.J. [Northrop-Grumman Corporation, Bethpage, NY 11714-3582 (United States)

    1997-11-21

    This article describes some results from an experiment with CVD diamond films used as {alpha} particle detectors. It demonstrates that bulk polarization can be effectively stopped within a reasonable time interval. This will enable detector calibration and quantitative measurement. A possible mechanism for the observed polarization quenching is discussed. It involves two types of carrier traps and a tentative band-gap model derived from the results of photoconductive current measurements. The experiment was set up mainly to investigate {alpha} detection properties of polycrystalline diamond films grown by the technique of microwave plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition. For comparison, two commercially purchased diamond wafers were also investigated, i.e., one grown by the DC arc jet method, and the other, a type-IIa natural diamond wafer (not preselected). The best response to {alpha} particles was obtained using diamond thin-films grown by the microwave PECVD method, followed by the type-IIa natural diamond, and finally, the CVD diamond grown by the DC arc jet technique. (orig.). 43 refs.

  3. Childhood cardiovascular risk factors, a predictor of late adolescent overweight

    Saeed Kalantari

    2016-01-01

    Conclusion: Increased CVD risk factors are predictors of future overweight in childhood and adolescent and increased weight is linked significantly with dyslipidemia and hypertension in this age group.

  4. Communicating cardiovascular disease risk: an interview study of General Practitioners' use of absolute risk within tailored communication strategies.

    Bonner, Carissa; Jansen, Jesse; McKinn, Shannon; Irwig, Les; Doust, Jenny; Glasziou, Paul; McCaffery, Kirsten

    2014-05-29

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines encourage assessment of absolute CVD risk - the probability of a CVD event within a fixed time period, based on the most predictive risk factors. However, few General Practitioners (GPs) use absolute CVD risk consistently, and communication difficulties have been identified as a barrier to changing practice. This study aimed to explore GPs' descriptions of their CVD risk communication strategies, including the role of absolute risk. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 25 GPs in New South Wales, Australia. Transcribed audio-recordings were thematically coded, using the Framework Analysis method to ensure rigour. GPs used absolute CVD risk within three different communication strategies: 'positive', 'scare tactic', and 'indirect'. A 'positive' strategy, which aimed to reassure and motivate, was used for patients with low risk, determination to change lifestyle, and some concern about CVD risk. Absolute risk was used to show how they could reduce risk. A 'scare tactic' strategy was used for patients with high risk, lack of motivation, and a dismissive attitude. Absolute risk was used to 'scare' them into taking action. An 'indirect' strategy, where CVD risk was not the main focus, was used for patients with low risk but some lifestyle risk factors, high anxiety, high resistance to change, or difficulty understanding probabilities. Non-quantitative absolute risk formats were found to be helpful in these situations. This study demonstrated how GPs use three different communication strategies to address the issue of CVD risk, depending on their perception of patient risk, motivation and anxiety. Absolute risk played a different role within each strategy. Providing GPs with alternative ways of explaining absolute risk, in order to achieve different communication aims, may improve their use of absolute CVD risk assessment in practice.

  5. Awareness and Knowledge of Cardiovascular Risk through Blood Pressure and Cholesterol Testing in College Freshmen

    Melnyk, J. A.; Panza, G.; Zaleski, A.; Taylor, B.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States, yet knowledge of CVD risk factors is surprisingly low in college students. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the effectiveness of an individualized blood pressure, cholesterol, and CVD education intervention on college freshmen. Methods:…

  6. Thermal Analysis of Cold Vacuum Drying (CVD) of Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF)

    PIEPHO, M.G.

    2000-01-01

    The thermal analysis examined transient thermal and chemical behavior of the Multi-Canister Overpack (MCO) container for a broad range of cases that represent the Cold Vacuum Drying (CVD) processes. The cases were defined to consider both normal and off-normal operations at the CVD Facility for an MCO with N Reactor spent fuel. This analysis provides the basis for the MCO thermal behavior at the CVD Facility in support of the safety basis documentation

  7. Global risk from the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides by nuclear power plant accidents in the coming decades

    Christoudias, T.; Proestos, Y. [The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia (Cyprus); Lelieveld, J. [The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia (Cyprus); Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz (Germany)

    2014-07-01

    We estimate the global risk from the release and atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides from nuclear power plant accidents using the EMAC atmospheric chemistry-general circulation model. We included all nuclear reactors that are currently operational, under construction and planned or proposed. We implemented constant continuous emissions from each location in the model and simulated atmospheric transport and removal via dry and wet deposition processes over 20 years (2010-2030), driven by boundary conditions based on the IPCC A2 future emissions scenario. We present global overall and seasonal risk maps for potential surface layer concentrations and ground deposition of radionuclides, and estimate potential doses to humans from inhalation and ground-deposition exposures to radionuclides. We find that the risk of harmful doses due to inhalation is typically highest in the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter, due to relatively shallow boundary layer development and limited mixing. Based on the continued operation of the current nuclear power plants, we calculate that the risk of radioactive contamination to the citizens of the USA will remain to be highest worldwide, followed by India and France. By including stations under construction and those that are planned and proposed, our results suggest that the risk will become highest in China, followed by India and the USA.

  8. Energy choices and risk beliefs: is it just global warming and fear of a nuclear power plant accident?

    Greenberg, Michael; Truelove, Heather Barnes

    2011-05-01

    A survey of 3,200 U.S. residents focused on two issues associated with the use of nuclear and coal fuels to produce electrical energy. The first was the association between risk beliefs and preferences for coal and nuclear energy. As expected, concern about nuclear power plant accidents led to decreased support for nuclear power, and those who believed that coal causes global warming preferred less coal use. Yet other risk beliefs about the coal and nuclear energy fuel cycles were stronger or equal correlates of public preferences. The second issue is the existence of what we call acknowledged risk takers, respondents who favored increased reliance on nuclear energy, although also noting that there could be a serious nuclear plant accident, and those who favored greater coal use, despite acknowledging a link to global warming. The pro-nuclear group disproportionately was affluent educated white males, and the pro-coal group was relatively poor less educated African-American and Latino females. Yet both shared four similarities: older age, trust in management, belief that the energy facilities help the local economy, and individualistic personal values. These findings show that there is no single public with regard to energy preferences and risk beliefs. Rather, there are multiple populations with different viewpoints that surely would benefit by hearing a clear and comprehensive national energy life cycle policy from the national government. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Rapid Global River Flood Risk Assessment under Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios: An Extreme Case of Eurasian region

    Kwak, Young-joo; Magome, Jun; Hasegawa, Akira; Iwami, Yoichi

    2017-04-01

    Causing widespread devastation with massive economic damage and loss of human lives, flood disasters hamper economic growth and accelerate poverty particularly in developing countries. Globally, this trend will likely continue due to increase in flood magnitude and lack of preparedness for extreme events. In line with risk reduction efforts since the early 21st century, the monitors and governors of global river floods should pay attention to international scientific and policy communities for support to facilitate evidence-based policy making with a special interest in long-term changes due to climate change and socio-economic effects. Although advanced hydrological inundation models and risk models have been developed to reveal flood risk, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability at a river basin, it is obviously hard to identify the distribution and locations of continent-level flood risk based on national-level data. Therefore, we propose a methodological possibility for rapid global flood risk assessment with the results from its application to the two periods, i.e., Present (from 1980 to 2004) and Future (from 2075 to 2099). The method is particularly designed to effectively simplify complexities of a hazard area by calculating the differential inundation depth using GFID2M (global flood inundation depth 2-dimension model), despite low data availability. In this research, we addressed the question of which parts in the Eurasian region (8E to 180E, 0N to 60N) can be found as high-risk areas in terms of exposed population and economy in case of a 50-year return period flood. Economic losses were estimated according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenario, and the flood scale was defined using the annual maximum daily river discharge under the extreme conditions of climate change simulated with MRI-AGCM3.2S based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. As a preliminary result, the total potential economic loss in the

  10. A measure of the interfacial shear strength between SiC(CVD)/B(CVD) filament--aluminum matrix by fragmentation method

    Jiang, Y.Q.; Chen, X.J.; Yang, D.M.; Fei, X.; Pan, J.

    1993-01-01

    The tensile specimens used are of dog-bone shape and consist of single axial SiC (CVD) /B (CVD) filament processed by CVD and embedded in a LD-2 aluminum alloy. Model composite specimens have been fabricated by a high pressure squeeze casting technique. This paper describes the application of an Acoustic Emission Technique for locating the position of fiber breaks and thus determining the length distribution of