WorldWideScience

Sample records for global cv risk

  1. Analisis Strategi Mitigasi Resiko Pada Supply Chain CV Surya Cip Dengan House of Risk Model

    Pertiwi, Yoana Ellen; Susanty, Aries

    2017-01-01

    Analysis of Risk Mitigation Strategies on CV Surya CIP's Supply Chain Using House of Risk Model. In the supply chain activities always has the potential of risk, therefore risk management is necessary for handling the risks. At the company that produces plastic molding machine such as CV Surya CIP, in its supply chain activities have a chance to arise risks. The purpose of this study is to identify the various risks that occur in the CV Surya CIP and its causes, severity and determine the ...

  2. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  3. The Relationship Between Socioeconomic Status and CV Risk Factors

    Quispe, Renato; Benziger, Catherine P.; Bazo-Alvarez, Juan Carlos; Howe, Laura D.; Checkley, William; Gilman, Robert H.; Smeeth, Liam; Bernabé-Ortiz, Antonio; Miranda, J. Jaime; Bernabé-Ortiz, Antonio; Casas, Juan P.; Smith, George Davey; Ebrahim, Shah; García, Héctor H.; Gilman, Robert H.; Huicho, Luis; Málaga, Germán; Miranda, J. Jaime; Montori, Víctor M.; Smeeth, Liam; Checkley, William; Diette, Gregory B.; Gilman, Robert H.; Huicho, Luis; León-Velarde, Fabiola; Rivera, María; Wise, Robert A.; Checkley, William; García, Héctor H.; Gilman, Robert H.; Miranda, J. Jaime; Sacksteder, Katherine

    2016-01-01

    Background Variations in the distribution of cardiovascular disease and risk factors by socioeconomic status (SES) have been described in affluent societies, yet a better understanding of these patterns is needed for most low- and middle-income countries. Objective This study sought to describe the relationship between cardiovascular risk factors and SES using monthly family income, educational attainment, and assets index, in 4 Peruvian sites. Methods Baseline data from an age- and sex-stratified random sample of participants, ages ≥35 years, from 4 Peruvian sites (CRONICAS Cohort Study, 2010) were used. The SES indicators considered were monthly family income (n = 3,220), educational attainment (n = 3,598), and assets index (n = 3,601). Behavioral risk factors included current tobacco use, alcohol drinking, physical activity, daily intake of fruits and vegetables, and no control of salt intake. Cardiometabolic risk factors included obesity, elevated waist circumference, hypertension, insulin resistance, diabetes mellitus, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high triglyceride levels. Results In the overall population, 41.6% reported a monthly family income education. Important differences were noted between the socioeconomic indicators: for example, higher income and higher scores on an asset index were associated with greater risk of obesity, whereas higher levels of education were associated with lower risk of obesity. In contrast, higher SES according to all 3 indicators was associated with higher levels of triglycerides. Conclusions The association between SES and cardiometabolic risk factors varies depending on the SES indicator used. These results highlight the need to contextualize risk factors by socioeconomic groups in Latin American settings. PMID:27102029

  4. [Global risk management].

    Sghaier, W; Hergon, E; Desroches, A

    2015-08-01

    Risk management is a fundamental component of any successful company, whether it is in economic, societal or environmental aspect. Risk management is an especially important activity for companies that optimal security challenge of products and services is great. This is the case especially for the health sector institutions. Risk management is therefore a decision support tool and a means to ensure the sustainability of an organization. In this context, what methods and approaches implemented to manage the risks? Through this state of the art, we are interested in the concept of risk and risk management processes. Then we focus on the different methods of risk management and the criteria for choosing among these methods. Finally we highlight the need to supplement these methods by a systemic and global approach including through risk assessment by the audits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  5. Globalization and Risk Sharing

    Jaume Ventura; Fernando A. Broner

    2006-01-01

    We study the effects of globalization on risk sharing and welfare. Like the previous literature, we assume that governments cannot commit to enforce the repayment of debts owed by their citizens. Unlike the previous literature, we assume that governments cannot discriminate between domestic and foreign creditors when enforcing debt payments. This creates novel interactions between domestic and international trade in assets. (i) Increases in domestic trade raise the benefits of enforcement and...

  6. The Global Age NGIOA @ Risk

    Pandya, Jayshree

    2012-01-01

    Dr. Jayshree Pandya, founder of Risk Group LLC, is ahead of the curve in addressing the changing global fundamentals of the emerging Global Age.   The Global Age, and its changing global fundamentals has brought complex, chaotic, and turbulent times for every nation—where failures on all levels have become self-evident, repetitive, destructive, and potentially hopeless in nature and uncertainty. Nations are caught off guard.   From what is visible worldwide today, the promise of progress and prosperity for all nations does not seem to have materialized in this Global Age. Instead of progress and prosperity, we see crisis and catastrophe  overpowering and overwhelming the capability of most nations to meet their promise of progress and prosperity. Nations are in crisis. This introductory book addresses the global shifts and the changing global fundamentals of the Global Age, to lay out a much needed foundation of an integrated NGIOA risk governance framework for the near future. This book will make a conv...

  7. Global Cardiovascular Risk Assessment by Family Physicians in Suez Canal University-Family Medicine Centers-Egypt.

    Nour-Eldein, Hebatallah; Abdelsalam, Shimaa A; Nasr, Gamila M; Abdelwahed, Hassan A

    2013-01-01

    The close sustained contact of family physician with their patients and local community makes preventive care an integral part of their routine work. Most cardiovascular diseases (CVD) can be prevented by addressing their risk factors. There are several guidelines that recommend different CV risk assessment tools to support CV prevention strategies. This study aimed to assess awareness and attitude of global CV risk assessment and use of their tools by family physicians; aiming to improve CV prevention service. The current study is a cross-sectional descriptive analytic. Sixty-five family physicians were asked to respond to, validated anonymous questionnaire to collect data about characteristics of family physicians, their awareness, attitude, current use, barriers, and recommendations of global CV risk assessment. Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 18 was used for data entry and analysis. Awareness of guidelines of global CV risk assessment was relatively higher regarding the American guidelines (30.8%) than that recommended by World Health Organization (WHO) for Egypt (20.2%). 50.8% of participants had favorable attitude. There was statistical significant relationship between attitude scores and physician characteristics; age (P = 0.003), qualification (P = 0.001) and number of patients seen per week (P = 0.009). Routine use of global CV risk assessment tools was reported only (23%) by family physicians. Relative higher attitude scores than use of global CV risk assessment tools in practice. The most frequent barriers were related to lack of resources and shortage in training/skills and the raised suggestions were towards training.

  8. Prospective Study of Surgical Treatment of Acromegaly: Effects on Ghrelin, Weight, Adiposity, and Markers of CV Risk

    Reyes-Vidal, Carlos; Fernandez, Jean Carlos; Bruce, Jeffrey N.; Crisman, Celina; Conwell, Irene M.; Kostadinov, Jane; Geer, Eliza B.; Post, Kalmon D.

    2014-01-01

    Context: Although epidemiological studies have found that GH and IGF-1 normalization reduce the excess mortality of active acromegaly to expected rates, cross-sectional data report some cardiovascular (CV) risk markers to be less favorable in remission than active acromegaly. Objective: The objective of the study was to test the hypothesis that remission of acromegaly after surgical therapy increases weight and adiposity and some CV risk markers and these changes are paralleled by a rise in ghrelin. Design: Forty-two adults with untreated, active acromegaly were studied prospectively. Changes in outcome measures from before to after surgery were assessed in 26 subjects achieving remission (normal IGF-1) and 16 with persistent active acromegaly (elevated IGF-1) after surgery. Setting: The study was conducted at tertiary referral centers for pituitary tumors. Main Outcome Measures: Endocrine, metabolic, and CV risk parameters, anthropometrics, and body composition by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry were measured. Results: Remission increased total ghrelin, body weight, waist circumference, C-reactive protein, homocysteine, high-density lipoprotein, and leptin and reduced systolic blood pressure, homeostasis model assessment score, triglycerides, and lipoprotein (a) by 6 months and for 32 ± 4 months after surgery. The ghrelin rise correlated with the fall in the levels of GH, IGF-1, and insulin and insulin resistance. Weight, waist circumference, and ghrelin did not increase significantly in the persistent active acromegaly group. Total body fat, trunk fat, and perentage total body fat increased by 1 year after surgery in 15 remission subjects: the increase in body fat correlated with the rise in total ghrelin. Conclusions: Although most markers of CV risk improve with acromegaly remission after surgery, some markers and adiposity increase and are paralleled by a rise in total ghrelin, suggesting that these changes may be related. Understanding the mechanisms and

  9. Global risks from energy consumption

    von Hippel, F.

    1983-01-01

    A discussion of some of the global risks associated with current and frequently proposed future levels of consumption of energy from oil, coal, fission, fusion, and renewable sources points out the the dangers are serious and relatively near term. These include world war over Persian Gulf oil, climate change due to the buildup of atmospheric carbon dioxide, the accelerated proliferation of nuclear weapons, and competition between food and energy for land and water. The author urges placing a greater emphasis on how we use energy and how to reduce energy waste. At the levels of consumption which economically justified levels of energy efficiency could bring about, enough flexibility could develop in our choice of a future energy-supply mix to dramatically reduce the associated global risks. 47 references, 3 figures

  10. Global Drought Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of global drought total economic loss risks. A process of spatially allocating Gross Domestic...

  11. Global Volcano Mortality Risks and Distribution

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Volcano Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid representing global volcano mortality risks. The data set was constructed using historical...

  12. Global Landslide Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Landslide Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of global landslide total economic loss risks. A process of spatially allocating Gross...

  13. Global Multihazard Mortality Risks and Distribution

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Multihazard Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid identifying and characterizing the nature of multihazard risk at the global scale. For this...

  14. Global Drought Mortality Risks and Distribution

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid of global drought mortality risks. Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3) data...

  15. GLOBAL RISKS AND INSTRUMENTS OF ITS MINIMIZATION

    O. Havryliuk

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available It is argued that economic globalization leads to the formation of macro-economic, political and other risks that are able to grow into global risks affecting, without exception, all national economies, creating a serious threat to national economic security. The emphasis is on the negative elements of a set of global risks, their development and minimize the possibility of using a number of tools. Ensuring firmness of the state to external risks demands continuous monitoring and forecasting of world processes and usage of economic instruments of rapid response for prevention of negative consequences. The essence of the category of "risk" is revealed and deepened. The global risks that can not affect the economic security of Ukraine is disclosed. It is shown that the emergence of these global risks has negative impact on the economic security of Ukraine.

  16. Improvements in fitness are not obligatory for exercise training-induced improvements in CV risk factors.

    Hartman, Yvonne A W; Hopman, Maria T E; Schreuder, Tim H; Verheggen, Rebecca J H M; Scholten, Ralph R; Oudegeest-Sander, Madelijn H; Poelkens, Fleur; Maiorana, Andrew J; Naylor, Louise H; Willems, Peter H; Tack, Cees J; Thijssen, Dick H J; Green, Daniel J

    2018-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess whether changes in physical fitness relate to changes in cardiovascular risk factors following standardized, center-based and supervised exercise training programs in subjects with increased cardiovascular risk. We pooled data from exercise training studies of subjects with increased cardiovascular risk (n = 166) who underwent 8-52 weeks endurance training. We determined fitness (i.e., peak oxygen uptake) and traditional cardiovascular risk factors (body mass index, blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol), before and after training. We divided subjects into quartiles based on improvement in fitness, and examined whether these groups differed in terms of risk factors. Associations between changes in fitness and in cardiovascular risk factors were further tested using Pearson correlations. Significant heterogeneity was apparent in the improvement of fitness and individual risk factors, with nonresponder rates of 17% for fitness, 44% for body mass index, 33% for mean arterial pressure, 49% for total cholesterol, and 49% for high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Neither the number, nor the magnitude, of change in cardiovascular risk factors differed significantly between quartiles of fitness change. Changes in fitness were not correlated with changes in cardiovascular risk factors (all P > 0.05). Our data suggest that significant heterogeneity exists in changes in peak oxygen uptake after training, while improvement in fitness did not relate to improvement in cardiovascular risk factors. In subjects with increased cardiovascular risk, improvements in fitness are not obligatory for training-induced improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. © 2018 The Authors. Physiological Reports published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Physiological Society and the American Physiological Society.

  17. Globalization – Chances or Risks

    MĂDĂLINA ANTOANETA RĂDOI; ALEXANDRU OLTEANU

    2015-01-01

    There are for and against arguments as regards the process of globalization. But what is globalization: a concept, a reality or a state as such? We can consider that globalization reflects the natural continuity of a process that appeared a long time ago and that has evolved ever since or a new phenomenon that was generated by the speed with which new technology and information flow. Milton Friedman, a fervent supporter of globalization, gives an answer to the question “what is globalization”...

  18. Improvements in fitness are not obligatory for exercise training-induced improvements in CV risk factors

    Hartman, Yvonne A.W.; Hopman, Maria T.E.; Schreuder, Tim H.; Verheggen, Rebecca J.H.M.; Scholten, Ralph R.; Oudegeest-Sander, Madelijn H.; Poelkens, Fleur; Maiorana, Andrew J.; Naylor, Louise H.; Willems, Peter H.; Tack, Cees J.; Thijssen, Dick H.J.; Green, Daniel J.

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess whether changes in physical fitness relate to changes in cardiovascular risk factors following standardized, center-based and supervised exercise training programs in subjects with increased cardiovascular risk. We pooled data from exercise training studies of

  19. The Relationship Between Socioeconomic Status and CV Risk Factors: The CRONICAS Cohort Study of Peruvian Adults.

    Quispe, Renato; Benziger, Catherine P; Bazo-Alvarez, Juan Carlos; Howe, Laura D; Checkley, William; Gilman, Robert H; Smeeth, Liam; Bernabé-Ortiz, Antonio; Miranda, J Jaime

    2016-03-01

    Variations in the distribution of cardiovascular disease and risk factors by socioeconomic status (SES) have been described in affluent societies, yet a better understanding of these patterns is needed for most low- and middle-income countries. This study sought to describe the relationship between cardiovascular risk factors and SES using monthly family income, educational attainment, and assets index, in 4 Peruvian sites. Baseline data from an age- and sex-stratified random sample of participants, ages ≥35 years, from 4 Peruvian sites (CRONICAS Cohort Study, 2010) were used. The SES indicators considered were monthly family income (n = 3,220), educational attainment (n = 3,598), and assets index (n = 3,601). Behavioral risk factors included current tobacco use, alcohol drinking, physical activity, daily intake of fruits and vegetables, and no control of salt intake. Cardiometabolic risk factors included obesity, elevated waist circumference, hypertension, insulin resistance, diabetes mellitus, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high triglyceride levels. In the overall population, 41.6% reported a monthly family income education. Important differences were noted between the socioeconomic indicators: for example, higher income and higher scores on an asset index were associated with greater risk of obesity, whereas higher levels of education were associated with lower risk of obesity. In contrast, higher SES according to all 3 indicators was associated with higher levels of triglycerides. The association between SES and cardiometabolic risk factors varies depending on the SES indicator used. These results highlight the need to contextualize risk factors by socioeconomic groups in Latin American settings. Copyright © 2016 World Heart Federation (Geneva). All rights reserved.

  20. Globalization – Chances or Risks

    MĂDĂLINA ANTOANETA RĂDOI

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available There are for and against arguments as regards the process of globalization. But what is globalization: a concept, a reality or a state as such? We can consider that globalization reflects the natural continuity of a process that appeared a long time ago and that has evolved ever since or a new phenomenon that was generated by the speed with which new technology and information flow. Milton Friedman, a fervent supporter of globalization, gives an answer to the question “what is globalization”; according to him, “globalization is not a simple tendency or phantasy but rather an international system. It is the new system that has replaced the Cold War system and that, like the former one, has its own laws and logic, being able to directly or indirectly influence today’s politics, the environment, geopolitics and the economy of every country in the world.” (Friedman, 2000. Globalization represents: the unlimited ascend of technology, the free flow of information, the annihilation of territorial limits, the uniformity of economy, the free flow of capital, the mobility of the person, as well as a political form of organization that aims at a future global government.

  1. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  2. Global Drought Proportional Economic Loss Risk Deciles

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Proportional Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of drought hazard economic loss as proportions of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per...

  3. Global Risk of Nuclear Terrorism

    Emily Diez

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of nuclear terrorism, a threat that President Obama called "the gravest danger we face," has signaled a paradigm shift in international security. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, sensitive nuclear technologies and materials have become increasingly available. Globalization and the inadequate enforcement of treaties and export controls have allowed the proliferation of nuclear weapons materials. Today, international terrorist organizations seek to employ weapons of mass destruction (WMD as a means to influence national policies around the world. AlQaida spokesman Suleiman Abu Gheith declared that in order to balance the injustices that have been inflicted on the Muslim population worldwide, al-Qaida's new objective is "to kill 4 million Americans–2 million of them children." As political scientist Graham Allison notes, this could be achieved with either 1,334 attacks similar in magnitude to those of 9/11, or one nuclear bomb.Building a nuclear program is an arduous task that requires tacit knowledge, the recruitment of nuclear scientists, engineers, and machinists, and the resources and time to obtain nuclear materials and components. While it is unlikely that terrorist organizations have the capacity to develop full-fledged programs in the near term, terrorist development and acquisition of nuclear weapons remains a long-term threat that requires international action.

  4. Global drivers of future river flood risk

    Winsemius, Hessel C.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Bouwman, Arno; Jongman, Brenden; Kwadijk, Jaap C. J.; Ligtvoet, Willem; Lucas, Paul L.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Ward, Philip J.

    2016-04-01

    Understanding global future river flood risk is a prerequisite for the quantification of climate change impacts and planning effective adaptation strategies. Existing global flood risk projections fail to integrate the combined dynamics of expected socio-economic development and climate change. We present the first global future river flood risk projections that separate the impacts of climate change and socio-economic development. The projections are based on an ensemble of climate model outputs, socio-economic scenarios, and a state-of-the-art hydrologic river flood model combined with socio-economic impact models. Globally, absolute damage may increase by up to a factor of 20 by the end of the century without action. Countries in Southeast Asia face a severe increase in flood risk. Although climate change contributes significantly to the increase in risk in Southeast Asia, we show that it is dwarfed by the effect of socio-economic growth, even after normalization for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. African countries face a strong increase in risk mainly due to socio-economic change. However, when normalized to GDP, climate change becomes by far the strongest driver. Both high- and low-income countries may benefit greatly from investing in adaptation measures, for which our analysis provides a basis.

  5. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  6. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  7. Demographic controls of future global fire risk

    Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.

    2016-08-01

    Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

  8. Changing Global Risk Landscape - Challenges for Risk Management (Invited)

    Wenzel, F.

    2009-12-01

    The exponentially growing losses related to natural disasters on a global scale reflect a changing risk landscape that is characterized by the influence of climate change and a growing population, particularly in urban agglomerations and coastal zones. In consequence of these trends we witness (a) new hazards such as landslides due to dwindling permafrost, new patterns of strong precipitation and related floods, potential for tropical cyclones in the Mediterranean, sea level rise and others; (b) new risks related to large numbers of people in very dense urban areas, and risks related to the vulnerability of infrastructure such as energy supply, water supply, transportation, communication, etc. (c) extreme events with unprecedented size and implications. An appropriate answer to these challenges goes beyond classical views of risk assessment and protection. It must include an understanding of risk as changing with time so that risk assessment needs to be supplemented by risk monitoring. It requires decision making under high uncertainty. The risks (i.e. potentials for future losses) of extreme events are not only high but also very difficult to quantify, as they are characterized by high levels of uncertainty. Uncertainties relate to frequency, time of occurrence, strength and impact of extreme events but also to the coping capacities of society in response to them. The characterization, quantification, reduction in the extent possible of the uncertainties is an inherent topic of extreme event research. However, they will not disappear, so a rational approach to extreme events must include more than reducing uncertainties. It requires us to assess and rate the irreducible uncertainties, to evaluate options for mitigation under large uncertainties, and their communication to societal sectors. Thus scientist need to develop methodologies that aim at a rational approach to extreme events associated with high levels of uncertainty.

  9. A framework for global river flood risk assessments

    Winsemius, H.C.; van Beek, L.P.H.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/14749799X; Jongman, B.; Ward, P.J.; Bouwman, A.

    2013-01-01

    There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and

  10. Global prevalence and major risk factors of diabetic retinopathy

    Yau, Joanne W Y; Rogers, Sophie L; Kawasaki, Ryo

    2012-01-01

    To examine the global prevalence and major risk factors for diabetic retinopathy (DR) and vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR) among people with diabetes.......To examine the global prevalence and major risk factors for diabetic retinopathy (DR) and vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR) among people with diabetes....

  11. CV equipment responsibilities

    Pirollet, B

    2008-01-01

    This document describes the limits of the responsibilities of the TS/CV for fire fighting equipment at the LHC. The various interfaces, providers and users of the water supply systems and clean water raising systems are described.

  12. Emgu CV essentials

    Shi, Shin

    2013-01-01

    This book provides a practical guide to Emgu CV libraries, with sample code and examples used throughout to explain the concepts clearly. Each chapter deals with a different aspect of the Computer Vision field and the implementation of that topic in Emgu CV.If you are a C# programmer working on computer vision projects, this book is for you. You should have prior experience with C#.

  13. The evolution of global disaster risk assessments: from hazard to global change

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2013-04-01

    The perception of disaster risk as a dynamic process interlinked with global change is a fairly recent concept. It gradually emerged as an evolution from new scientific theories, currents of thinking and lessons learned from large disasters since the 1970s. The interest was further heighten, in the mid-1980s, by the Chernobyl nuclear accident and the discovery of the ozone layer hole, both bringing awareness that dangerous hazards can generate global impacts. The creation of the UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) and the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990 reinforced the interest for global risk assessment. First global risk models including hazard, exposure and vulnerability components were available since mid-2000s. Since then increased computation power and more refined datasets resolution, led to more numerous and sophisticated global risk models. This article presents a recent history of global disaster risk models, the current status of researches for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR 2013) and future challenges and limitations for the development of next generation global disaster risk models.

  14. Public policy and risk financing strategies for global catastrophe risk management - the role of global risk initiatives

    McSharry, Patrick; Mitchell, Andrew; Anderson, Rebecca

    2010-05-01

    Decision-makers in both public and private organisations depend on accurate data and scientific understanding to adequately address climate change and the impact of extreme events. The financial impacts of catastrophes on populations and infrastructure can be offset through effective risk transfer mechanisms, structured to reflect the specific perils and levels of exposure to be covered. Optimal strategies depend on the likely socio-econonomic impact, the institutional framework, the overall objectives of the covers placed and the level of both the frequency and severity of loss potential expected. The diversity of approaches across different countries has been documented by the Spanish "Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros". We discuss why international public/private partnerships are necessary for addressing the risk of natural catastrophes. International initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the World Forum of Catastrophe Programmes (WFCP) can provide effective guidelines for constructing natural catastrophe schemes. The World Bank has been instrumental in the creation of many of the existing schemes such as the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and the Mongolian Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program. We review existing schemes and report on best practice in relation to providing protection against natural catastrophe perils. The suitability of catastrophe modelling approaches to support schemes across the world are discussed and we identify opportunities to improve risk assessment for such schemes through transparent frameworks for quantifying, pricing, sharing and financing catastrophe risk on a local and global basis.

  15. On the governance of global and catastrophic risks

    Faber, Michael Havbro

    2011-01-01

    The focus of the present paper regards the identification and treatment of critical issues in the process of societal decision making concerning management of global and catastrophic risks. Taking basis in recent works by the author, the paper in particular addresses: 1) Which are the most relevant...... hazards in a holistic global perspective and how may these be categorised in view of strategies for their treatment?; 2) How might robust societal decisions on risk management subject to large uncertainties be formally supported?; 3) How may available economic resources be prioritised for the purpose...... of sustainable and global life safety and health improvements? Finally, new results and perspectives are presented on the issue of allocation of resources for the purpose of improving global public health and a discussion on global risk governance concludes the paper....

  16. The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis

    Trigg, M.A.; Birch, C.E.; Neal, J.C.; Bates, P.D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C.C.; Yamazaki, D.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Pappenberger, F.; Dutra, E.; Ward, P.J.; Winsemius, H.C.; Salamon, P.; Dottori, F.; Rudari, R.; Kappes, M.S.; Simpson, A.L.; Hadzilacos, G.; Fewtrell, T.J.

    2016-01-01

    Quantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate flood risk globally to better allow consistent and equitable

  17. Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Bates, Paul; De Groeve, Tom; Muis, Sanne; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Rudari, Roberto; Mark, Trigg; Winsemius, Hessel

    2016-04-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742

  18. Foreign exchange risk in terms of global financial crisis

    Michał Buszko

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Fx risk is one of the most important types of risk of financial activity. In practice, this risk comprises several risk aspects related to currencies exchanging, however most often it is identified with unexpected changes of their prices. In terms of the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, the fx risk has raised significantly, revealing a high daily volatility, increased spreads and the reversal of long-term exchange rate trends. Such increased risk especially influenced emerging markets economies, including Poland. Its consequence was quick strengthening of Polish currency at the beginning of the global crisis followed by a very sudden fall of its value. This event led to a substantial increase of banking risk, investment funds and corporate operations. It changed the structure of GDP sources as well as generated huge losses for exporting companies, using currency options hedging strategies.

  19. CV : [luuletused] / Mari Vallisoo

    Vallisoo, Mari, 1950-2013

    2007-01-01

    Sisu: CV ; Sõnaraamat ; Tegijad ; "Kus leemekulp?..." ; "Veel üks viimnepäev mis asja teha sellega..." ; "Ülemise riiuli ääre pääl...", "Alkeemik Alberti elamus...", "Valge pulber veel enam valgega...", "Meie isa, kes sa...", "Ükskord, kui Maa...", "Kevadvesi ja -pori...", "Mõisnik Meeskurat müüs mu vaarisale..."

  20. Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

    Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

    2013-12-01

    In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change

  1. Measuring Producers' Risk Preferences: A Global Risk Attitude Construct

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Garcia, P.

    2001-01-01

    In applied agricultural economic research various risk-attitude elicitation techniques are used. Here, we investigate whether risk-attitude measures rooted in the expected utility framework are related to measures rooted in the multi-item scale framework. Using a second-order factor analytical

  2. Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2017-04-01

    Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL

  3. Association between low education and higher global cardiovascular risk.

    Di Chiara, Tiziana; Scaglione, Alessandra; Corrao, Salvatore; Argano, Christiano; Pinto, Antonio; Scaglione, Rosario

    2015-05-01

    This study was designed to evaluate the impact of educational status on global cardiovascular risk in a southern Italian urban population. The study population consisted of 488 consecutive outpatients aged 18 years and older. Educational status was categorized according to the number of years of formal education as follows: (1) low education group (education group (10-15 years). In both groups, cardiometabolic comorbidities (obesity, visceral obesity, diabetes, dyslipidemia, metabolic syndrome, microalbuminuria, left ventricular hypertrophy) and global cardiovascular risk, according to international guidelines, were analyzed. Left ventricular mass index and ejection fraction by echocardiography and E/A ratio, by pulsed-wave Doppler, were calculated. The low education group was characterized by a significantly higher prevalence of patients with visceral obesity (P=.021), hypertension (P=.010), metabolic syndrome (P=.000), and microalbuminuria (P=.000) and greater global cardiovascular risk (P=.000). Significantly increased levels of microalbuminuria (P=.000) and significantly decreased values of E/A ratio (P=.000) were also detected in the low education group. Global cardiovascular risk correlated directly with waist-to-hip ratio (P=.010), microalbuminuria (P=.015), and the metabolic syndrome (P>.012) and inversely with educational status (P=.000). Education was independently (P=.000) associated with global cardiovascular risk. These data indicate a strong association between low education and cardiometabolic comorbidities suitable to influence the evolution of chronic degenerative diseases. Preventive strategies need to be more efficient and more effective in this patient population. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Aqueduct: a methodology to measure and communicate global water risks

    Gassert, Francis; Reig, Paul

    2013-04-01

    The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores and includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. Indicators are selected based on relevance to water users, availability and robustness of global data sources, and expert consultation, and are collected from existing datasets or derived from a Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) based integrated water balance model. Indicators are normalized using a threshold approach, and composite scores are computed using a linear aggregation scheme that allows for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. By providing consistent scores across the globe, the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables rapid comparison across diverse aspects of water risk. Companies can use this information to prioritize actions, investors to leverage financial interest to improve water management, and governments to engage with the private sector to seek solutions for more equitable and sustainable water governance. The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables practical applications of scientific data

  5. The globalization of risk and risk perception: why we need a new model of risk communication for vaccines.

    Larson, Heidi; Brocard Paterson, Pauline; Erondu, Ngozi

    2012-11-01

    Risk communication and vaccines is complex and the nature of risk perception is changing, with perceptions converging, evolving and having impacts well beyond specific geographic localities and points in time, especially when amplified through the Internet and other modes of global communication. This article examines the globalization of risk perceptions and their impacts, including the example of measles and the globalization of measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine risk perceptions, and calls for a new, more holistic model of risk assessment, risk communication and risk mitigation, embedded in an ongoing process of risk management for vaccines and immunization programmes. It envisions risk communication as an ongoing process that includes trust-building strategies hand-in-hand with operational and policy strategies needed to mitigate and manage vaccine-related risks, as well as perceptions of risk.

  6. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available on two of the most important underlying factors supporting the ecosystem: productivity and hypoxia afiecting harmful algae blooms (HABs) and the rock lobsters. The risk regimes are a function of two time scales | a ‘high’ wind stress in early summer... is a condition which can lead to various negative impacts depending on the particular marine life, for instance rock lobsters stranding. The exact deflnitions of the two seasonal occurrences resulting in the risk event, ‘high’ wind stress in ‘early...

  7. A framework for global river flood risk assessments

    Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Jongman, B.; Ward, P. J.; Bouwman, A.

    2013-05-01

    There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from the EM

  8. A framework for global river flood risk assessments

    H. C. Winsemius

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population. The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE. We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from

  9. Thrombotic risk assessment in APS: the Global APS Score (GAPSS).

    Sciascia, S; Bertolaccini, M L

    2014-10-01

    Recently, we developed a risk score for antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) (Global APS Score or GAPSS). This score derived from the combination of independent risk factors for thrombosis and pregnancy loss, taking into account the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) profile (criteria and non-criteria aPL), the conventional cardiovascular risk factors, and the autoimmune antibodies profile. We demonstrate that risk profile in APS can be successfully assessed, suggesting that GAPSS can be a potential quantitative marker of APS-related clinical manifestations. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  10. Benchmarking Global Food Safety Performances: The Era of Risk Intelligence.

    Valleé, Jean-Charles Le; Charlebois, Sylvain

    2015-10-01

    Food safety data segmentation and limitations hamper the world's ability to select, build up, monitor, and evaluate food safety performance. Currently, there is no metric that captures the entire food safety system, and performance data are not collected strategically on a global scale. Therefore, food safety benchmarking is essential not only to help monitor ongoing performance but also to inform continued food safety system design, adoption, and implementation toward more efficient and effective food safety preparedness, responsiveness, and accountability. This comparative study identifies and evaluates common elements among global food safety systems. It provides an overall world ranking of food safety performance for 17 Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) countries, illustrated by 10 indicators organized across three food safety risk governance domains: risk assessment (chemical risks, microbial risks, and national reporting on food consumption), risk management (national food safety capacities, food recalls, food traceability, and radionuclides standards), and risk communication (allergenic risks, labeling, and public trust). Results show all countries have very high food safety standards, but Canada and Ireland, followed by France, earned excellent grades relative to their peers. However, any subsequent global ranking study should consider the development of survey instruments to gather adequate and comparable national evidence on food safety.

  11. FINANCIAL RISK COVERAGE IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBALIZATION FINANCIAL MARKETS

    María Esperanza González-del Foyo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In a globalized environment, the increase of risks that assume the international commerce makes necessary the to articulate the instruments of covering. The enterprise activity and the country in matter will condition in a great measure the type of covering that be needed to contract, the principal consist in: knowing the risks, evaluate its incidence, decide to cover it or assume it and in both cases the right choise most be the aplication of the strategy thatt be more efective. The States put under disposition of the enterprises a series of public mechanismes to help them to promote its internationalitation . One of the pillars where this politics rest is the use of mechanismes of riskes cover in the internacional commerce. In correspondence with the previous, to reflect on the aplications of the financial risk and the formulation of strategies to cover them in conditions of globalization of the financial markets, constitute the objetive of this article. 

  12. Sovereign Credit Risk in Latin America and Global Common Factors

    Manuel Agosin Trumper; Juan Díaz Maureira

    2012-01-01

    This paper studies the importance of global common factors in the evolution of sovereign credit risk in a group of emerging economies (15 countries in Latin America for which daily data are available on sovereign credit spreads and CDS quotations from the beginning of 2007 until February 2012). We arrive at three principal results. First, there is robust evidence for the existence of a common factor in the evolution of the two measurements of sovereign credit risk that we use. Second, the com...

  13. Communicating health risks to the public: a global perspective

    Hillier, Dawn

    2006-01-01

    ... under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988, to be identified as the author of this work. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Communicating health risks to the public : a global perspective 1. Health risk communication I. Hillier, Dawn, 1950- 614.4'4 ISBN-13: 978-0-566-08672-4 ISBN-10: 0 566 08672 7 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publ...

  14. Education and hypertension: impact on global cardiovascular risk.

    Di Chiara, Tiziana; Scaglione, Alessandra; Corrao, Salvatore; Argano, Christiano; Pinto, Antonio; Scaglione, Rosario

    2017-10-01

    Improving cardiovascular risk prediction continues to be a major challenge and effective prevention of cardiovascular disease. Accordingly, several studies have recently reported on the role of cardiovascular risk education. This study was designed to evaluate the impact of education on global cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients. The study population consisted of 223 consecutive hypertensive outpatients. Their educational status was categorized according to the number of years of formal education as follows: (1) low education (less than 10 years) and (2) medium-high education (10-15 years). In both groups, cardiometabolic comorbidities, global cardiovascular risk and echocardiographic measurements were analysed. Less educated hypertensive subjects were characterized by a significantly higher prevalence of patients with metabolic syndrome (MetS) (p educated hypertensive subjects. In the same subjects, a significant increase in microalbuminuria (MA) (p education (r = -0.45; p Education was independently (p education may be considered the best predictor of global cardiovascular risk in hypertensives and thus has to be evaluated in the strategies of hypertension and cardiovascular risk management.

  15. Mortalidade global e cardiovascular e fatores de risco de pacientes em hemodiálise Mortalidad global y cardiovascular y factores de riesgo de pacientes en hemodiálisis Global and cardiovascular mortality and risk factors in patients under hemodialysis treatment

    Fátima Aparecida A. Almeida

    2010-02-01

    % sobreviviendo 141 meses. En el análisis bivariado, el RR de óbito no cardiovascular (ONCV y CV aumentó con edad > 60 años, Hb 126 mg/dl; sólo de ONCV, con baja escolaridad, viudez, Hb 100 mg/dl, producto Ca x P 9,2 mg/dl; disminuyó con PA > 140/90 mmHg (antes de la sesión de HD y Ht > 36%; de óbito CV solamente, aumentó con creatinina > 9,4 mg/dl. En el análisis multivariado, el RR de ONCV y CV aumento con edad > 60 años y Hb 126 mg/dl y el de ONCV con tasa de remoción de urea en la hemodiálisis (Kt/V 60 años y Hb 126 mg/dl y ONCV Kt/V BACKGROUND: There is a high global and cardiovascular mortality rate among patients who need hemodialysis. OBJECTIVE: To assess global and cardiovascular mortality and to identify the risk factors in patients who undergo hemodialysis. METHODS: Observational, prospective study. A total of 334 patients were studied within three years. Primary outcomes: global and cardiovascular mortality. Survival was assessed through Kaplan-Meier method, and the risk variables were identified by means of bivariate and multivariate Cox regression. RESULTS: A total of 189 men (56.6%, aging 48.8 ± 14.2, majority non-white (295, 88.3% and who did finished the elementary school (211, 63.2%. Global mortality rate was 21.6%, with a 50% rate of 146-month survival; cardiovascular mortality rate was 41.7% (30/72, with a 75% rate of 141-month survival. In the bivariate analysis, the relative risk (RR for non-cardiovascular and cardiovascular death increased when age >60 years old was Hb126 mg/dl. Only non-cardiovascular death with low school grade and widow, Hb100 mg/dl, Ca product x P9.2 mg/dl decreased with blood pressure (BP >140/90 mmHg (before hemodialysis session and Ht>36%; Obit due only to cardiovascular factors increased with creatinine >9.4 mg/dl. In the multivariate analysis, non-cardiovascular and cardiovascular RR increased with age >60 years old and Hb126 mg/dl, and non-cardiovascular death RR increased with urea removal rate in hemodialysis (Kt

  16. ENSO impacts on flood risk at the global scale

    Ward, Philip; Dettinger, Michael; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Winsemius, Hessel

    2014-05-01

    We present the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on society and the economy, via relationships between ENSO and the hydrological cycle. We also discuss ways in which this knowledge can be used in disaster risk management and risk reduction. This contribution provides the most recent results of an ongoing 4-year collaborative research initiative to assess and map the impacts of large scale interannual climate variability on flood hazard and risk at the global scale. We have examined anomalies in flood risk between ENSO phases, whereby flood risk is expressed in terms of indicators such as: annual expected damage; annual expected affected population; annual expected affected Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We show that large anomalies in flood risk occur during El Niño or La Niña years in basins covering large parts of the Earth's surface. These anomalies reach statistical significance river basins covering almost two-thirds of the Earth's surface. Particularly strong anomalies exist in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially La Niña anomalies), and parts of South America. We relate these anomalies to possible causal relationships between ENSO and flood hazard, using both modelled and observed data on flood occurrence and extremity. The implications for flood risk management are many-fold. In those regions where disaster risk is strongly influenced by ENSO, the potential predictably of ENSO could be used to develop probabilistic flood risk projections with lead times up to several seasons. Such data could be used by the insurance industry in managing risk portfolios and by multinational companies for assessing the robustness of their supply chains to potential flood-related interruptions. Seasonal forecasts of ENSO influence of peak flows could also allow for improved flood early warning and regulation by dam operators, which could also reduce overall risks

  17. Expanding the definition of hypertension to incorporate global cardiovascular risk.

    Khosla, Nitin; Black, Henry R

    2006-10-01

    Recent epidemiologic analyses have changed the way that hypertension is viewed. Cardiovascular risk has been found to be elevated at levels of blood pressure previously believed to be normal and not imparting additional risk. Furthermore, the approach to hypertension has been shifted from viewing and treating it in isolation to a more comprehensive approach that incorporates a focus on global cardiovascular risk and the risk factors commonly associated with having an elevated blood pressure. However, control rates not only for hypertension but also for associated risk factors, such as hyperlipidemia and diabetes, remain abysmal, providing an even greater challenge to providers of care. To change this alarming trend, physicians must become aggressive in using the available armamentarium of lifestyle modifications and drugs in treating hypertension and other risk factors that increase the burden of atherosclerosis.

  18. Youth, Risk, and Equity in a Global World

    Hull, Glynda; Zacher, Jessica; Hibbert, Liesel

    2009-01-01

    This article reviews educational literatures that should be relevant to helping individuals understand and improve the lot and life chances of girls and boys who are at risk in a global world. The authors began this review with a vignette from India, a country whose linguistic and ethnic diversity, whose international reputation for advances in…

  19. Global prevalence and major risk factors of diabetic retinopathy

    J.W.Y. Yau (Joanne W.); S.L. Rogers (Sophie); Y. Kawasaki; E.L. Lamoureux (Ecosse); J.W. Kowalski (Jonathan); T. Bek (Toke); S.-J. Chen (Shih-Jen); J.M. Dekker (Jacqueline); A.E. Fletcher (Astrid E.); J. Grauslund (Jakob); R.C.G. Haffner; U. Hamman (Ute); M.K. Ikram (Kamran); T. Kayama (Takamasa); B.E.K. Klein (Barbara); B.E.K. Klein (Barbara); S. Krishnaiah (Sannapaneni); K. Mayurasakorn (Korapat); J.P. O'Hare (Joseph); T. Orchard; M. Porta; M. Rema (Mohan); M.S. Roy (Monique); T. Sharma (Tarun); S-M. Saw (Seang-Mei); H. Taylor (Hugh); J.M. Tielsch (James); D. Varma (Dhiraj); J.J. Wang (Jie Jin); N. Wang (Ningli); S. West (Sheila); L. Zu (Liang); M. Yasuda (Maya); X. Zhang (Xinzhi); P. Mitchell (Paul); T.Y. Wong (Tien Yin)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractOBJECTIVE - To examine the global prevalence and major risk factors for diabetic retinopathy (DR) and vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR) among people with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - A pooled analysis using individual participant data from population-based studies

  20. The rationale/design of the Guimarães/Vizela study: a multimodal population-based cohort study to determine global cardiovascular risk and disease.

    Cunha, Pedro Guimarães; Cotter, Jorge; Oliveira, Pedro; Vila, Isabel; Sousa, Nuno

    2014-06-01

    Cardiovascular disease and dementia are growing medical and social problems in aging societies. Appropriate knowledge of cardiovascular disease and cognitive decline risk factors (RFs) are critical for global CVR health preventive intervention. Many epidemiological studies use case definition based on data collected/measured in a single visit, a fact that can overestimate prevalence rates and distant from clinical practice demanding criteria. Portugal displays an elevated stroke mortality rate. However, population's global CV risk characterization is limited, namely, considering traditional/nontraditional RF and new intermediate phenotypes of CV and renal disease. Association of hemodynamic variables (pulse wave velocity and central blood pressure) with global CVR stratification, cognitive performance, and kidney disease are practically inexistent at a dwelling population level. After reviewing published data, we designed a population-based cohort study to analyze the prevalence of these cardiovascular RFs and intermediate phenotypes, using random sampling of adult dwellers living in 2 adjacent cities. Strict definition of phenotypes was planned: subjects were observed twice, and several hemodynamic and other biological variables measured at least 3 months apart. Three thousand thirty-eight subjects were enrolled, and extensive data collection (including central and peripheral blood pressure, pulse wave velocity), sample processing, and biobank edification were carried out. One thousand forty-seven cognitive evaluations were performed. Seeking for CV risk reclassification, early identification of subjects at risk, and evidence of early vascular aging and cognitive and renal function decline, using the strict daily clinical practice criteria, will lead to better resource allocation in preventive measures at a population level.

  1. Population risk perceptions of global warming in Australia.

    Agho, Kingsley; Stevens, Garry; Taylor, Mel; Barr, Margo; Raphael, Beverley

    2010-11-01

    According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), global warming has the potential to dramatically disrupt some of life's essential requirements for health, water, air and food. Understanding how Australians perceive the risk of global warming is essential for climate change policy and planning. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of, and socio-demographic factors associated with, high levels of perceived likelihood that global warming would worsen, concern for self and family and reported behaviour changes. A module of questions on global warming was incorporated into the New South Wales Population Health Survey in the second quarter of 2007. This Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) was completed by a representative sample of 2004 adults. The weighted sample was comparable to the Australian population. Bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were conducted to examine the socio-demographic and general health factors. Overall 62.1% perceived that global warming was likely to worsen; 56.3% were very or extremely concerned that they or their family would be directly affected by global warming; and 77.6% stated that they had made some level of change to the way they lived their lives, because of the possibility of global warming. After controlling for confounding factors, multivariate analyses revealed that those with high levels of psychological distress were 2.17 (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR)=2.17; CI: 1.16-4.03; P=0.015) times more likely to be concerned about global warming than those with low psychological distress levels. Those with a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in urban areas were significantly more likely to think that global warming would worsen compared to those without a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in the rural areas. Females were significantly (AOR=1.69; CI: 1.23-2.33; P=0.001) more likely to report they had made changes to the way they lived their lives due to the risk of

  2. Hydroclimatic risks and uncertainty in the global power sector

    Gidden, Matthew; Byers, Edward; Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Parkinson, Simon; Raptis, Catherine; Rogelj, Joeri; Satoh, Yusuke; van Vliet, Michelle; Wada, Yoshide; Krey, Volker; Langan, Simon; Riahi, Keywan

    2017-04-01

    Approximately 80% of the world's electricity supply depends on reliable water resources. Thermoelectric and hydropower plants have been impacted by low flows and floods in recent years, notably in the US, Brazil, France, and China, amongst other countries. The dependence on reliable flows imputes a large vulnerability to the electricity supply system due to hydrological variability and the impacts of climate change. Using an updated dataset of global electricity capacity with global climate and hydrological data from the ISI-MIP project, we present an overview analysis of power sector vulnerability to hydroclimatic risks, including low river flows and peak flows. We show how electricity generation in individual countries and transboundary river basins can be impacted, helping decision-makers identify key at-risk geographical regions. Furthermore, our use of a multi-model ensemble of climate and hydrological models allows us to quantify the uncertainty of projected impacts, such that basin-level risks and uncertainty can be compared.

  3. Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots: Transition to a Regional Approach

    Lerner-Lam, A.; Chen, R.; Dilley, M.

    2005-12-01

    The "Hotspots Project" is a collaborative study of the global distribution and occurrence of multiple natural hazards and the associated exposures of populations and their economic output. In this study we assess the global risks of two disaster-related outcomes: mortality and economic losses. We estimate risk levels by combining hazard exposure with historical vulnerability for two indicators of elements at risk-gridded population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per unit area - for six major natural hazards: earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, floods, drought, and cyclones. By calculating relative risks for each grid cell rather than for countries as a whole, we are able to estimate risk levels at sub-national scales. These can then be used to estimate aggregate relative multiple hazard risk at regional and national scales. Mortality-related risks are assessed on a 2.5' x 2.5' latitude-longitude grid of global population (GPW Version 3). Economic risks are assessed at the same resolution for gridded GDP per unit area, using World Bank estimates of GDP based on purchasing power parity. Global hazard data were compiled from multiple sources. The project collaborated directly with UNDP and UNEP, the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) at Columbia, and the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) in the creation of data sets for several hazards for which global data sets did not previously exist. Drought, flood and volcano hazards are characterized in terms of event frequency, storms by frequency and severity, earthquakes by frequency and ground acceleration exceedance probability, and landslides by an index derived from probability of occurrence. The global analysis undertaken in this project is clearly limited by issues of scale as well as by the availability and quality of data. For some hazards, there exist only 15- to 25-year global records with relatively crude spatial information. Data on historical disaster losses, and particularly on

  4. The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

    Smolka, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

  5. Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased.

    Shearer, Peter M; Stark, Philip B

    2012-01-17

    The recent elevated rate of large earthquakes has fueled concern that the underlying global rate of earthquake activity has increased, which would have important implications for assessments of seismic hazard and our understanding of how faults interact. We examine the timing of large (magnitude M≥7) earthquakes from 1900 to the present, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks. The global rate of M≥8 earthquakes has been at a record high roughly since 2004, but rates have been almost as high before, and the rate of smaller earthquakes is close to its historical average. Some features of the global catalog are improbable in retrospect, but so are some features of most random sequences--if the features are selected after looking at the data. For a variety of magnitude cutoffs and three statistical tests, the global catalog, with local clusters removed, is not distinguishable from a homogeneous Poisson process. Moreover, no plausible physical mechanism predicts real changes in the underlying global rate of large events. Together these facts suggest that the global risk of large earthquakes is no higher today than it has been in the past.

  6. Aqueduct: an interactive tool to empower global water risk assessment

    Reig, Paul; Gassert, Francis

    2013-04-01

    The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. It organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores, which allow for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. All information is compiled into an online, open access platform, from which decision-makers can view indicators, scores, and maps, conduct global risk assessments, and export data and shape files for further analysis. Companies can use this tool to evaluate their exposure to water risks across operations and supply chains, investors to assess water-related risks in their portfolio, and public-sector actors to better understand water security. Additionally, the open nature of the data and maps allow other organizations to build off of this effort with new research, for example in the areas of water-energy or water-food relationships. This presentation will showcase the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas online tool and the features and functionalities it offers, as well as explain how it can be used for both private and public sector applications. The session will

  7. Global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

  8. Swiss Re Global Flood Hazard Zones: Know your flood risk

    Vinukollu, R. K.; Castaldi, A.; Mehlhorn, J.

    2012-12-01

    Floods, among all natural disasters, have a great damage potential. On a global basis, there is strong evidence of increase in the number of people affected and economic losses due to floods. For example, global insured flood losses have increased by 12% every year since 1970 and this is expected to further increase with growing exposure in the high risk areas close to rivers and coastlines. Recently, the insurance industry has been surprised by the large extent of losses, because most countries lack reliable hazard information. One example has been the 2011 Thailand floods where millions of people were affected and the total economic losses were 30 billion USD. In order to assess the flood risk across different regions and countries, the flood team at Swiss Re based on a Geomorphologic Regression approach, developed in house and patented, produced global maps of flood zones. Input data for the study was obtained from NASA's Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) elevation data, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) and HydroSHEDS. The underlying assumptions of the approach are that naturally flowing rivers shape their channel and flood plain according to basin inherent forces and characteristics and that the flood water extent strongly depends on the shape of the flood plain. On the basis of the catchment characteristics, the model finally calculates the probability of a location to be flooded or not for a defined return period, which in the current study was set to 100 years. The data is produced at a 90-m resolution for latitudes 60S to 60N. This global product is now used in the insurance industry to inspect, inform and/or insure the flood risk across the world.

  9. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform: a geoportal to serve and share global data on risk to natural hazards

    G. Giuliani

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available With growing world population and concentration in urban and coastal areas, the exposure to natural hazards is increasing and results in higher risk of human and economic losses. Improving the identification of areas, population and assets potentially exposed to natural hazards is essential to reduce the consequences of such events. Disaster risk is a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Modelling risk at the global level requires accessing and processing a large number of data, from numerous collaborating centres.

    These data need to be easily updated, and there is a need for centralizing access to this information as well as simplifying its use for non GIS specialists. The Hyogo Framework for Action provides the mandate for data sharing, so that governments and international development agencies can take appropriate decision for disaster risk reduction.

    Timely access and easy integration of geospatial data are essential to support efforts in Disaster Risk Reduction. However various issues in data availability, accessibility and integration limit the use of such data. In consequence, a framework that facilitate sharing and exchange of geospatial data on natural hazards should improve decision-making process. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform is a highly interactive web-based GIS portal supported by a Spatial Data Infrastructure that offers free and interoperable access to more than 60 global data sets on nine types of natural hazards (tropical cyclones and related storm surges, drought, earthquakes, biomass fires, floods, landslides, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions and related exposure and risk. This application portrays an easy-to-use online interactive mapping interface so that users can easily work with it and seamlessly integrate data in their own data flow using fully compliant OGC Web Services (OWS.

  10. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform: a geoportal to serve and share global data on risk to natural hazards

    Giuliani, G.; Peduzzi, P.

    2011-01-01

    With growing world population and concentration in urban and coastal areas, the exposure to natural hazards is increasing and results in higher risk of human and economic losses. Improving the identification of areas, population and assets potentially exposed to natural hazards is essential to reduce the consequences of such events. Disaster risk is a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Modelling risk at the global level requires accessing and processing a large number of data, from numerous collaborating centres. These data need to be easily updated, and there is a need for centralizing access to this information as well as simplifying its use for non GIS specialists. The Hyogo Framework for Action provides the mandate for data sharing, so that governments and international development agencies can take appropriate decision for disaster risk reduction. Timely access and easy integration of geospatial data are essential to support efforts in Disaster Risk Reduction. However various issues in data availability, accessibility and integration limit the use of such data. In consequence, a framework that facilitate sharing and exchange of geospatial data on natural hazards should improve decision-making process. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform is a highly interactive web-based GIS portal supported by a Spatial Data Infrastructure that offers free and interoperable access to more than 60 global data sets on nine types of natural hazards (tropical cyclones and related storm surges, drought, earthquakes, biomass fires, floods, landslides, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions) and related exposure and risk. This application portrays an easy-to-use online interactive mapping interface so that users can easily work with it and seamlessly integrate data in their own data flow using fully compliant OGC Web Services (OWS).

  11. Investors’ Risk Appetite and Global Financial Market Conditions

    Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo

    2008-01-01

    A structural vector autoregression model is developed to analyze the dynamics of bond spreads among a sample of mature and developing countries during periods of financial stress in the last decade. The model identifies and quantifies the contribution on bond spreads from global market conditions (including funding liquidity, market liquidity, as well as credit and volatility risks), contagion effects, and idiosyncratic factors. While idiosyncratic factors explain a large amount of the change...

  12. An experimental system for flood risk forecasting at global scale

    Alfieri, L.; Dottori, F.; Kalas, M.; Lorini, V.; Bianchi, A.; Hirpa, F. A.; Feyen, L.; Salamon, P.

    2016-12-01

    Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by an increasing range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasts, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. To this end, we have developed an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment based on the daily forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The methodology translates GloFAS streamflow forecasts into event-based flood hazard maps based on the predicted flow magnitude and the forecast lead time and a database of flood hazard maps with global coverage. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information to derive flood risk. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To further increase the reliability of the proposed methodology we integrated model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification of impact forecasts. The preliminary tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management. In particular, the link with social media is crucial for improving the accuracy of impact predictions.

  13. Geography of current and future global mammal extinction risk.

    Ana D Davidson

    variation in the pressures faced by populations within the ranges of individual species. The added impacts from climate change may increase the susceptibility of at-risk species to extinction and expand the regions where mammals are most vulnerable globally.

  14. Geography of current and future global mammal extinction risk.

    Davidson, Ana D; Shoemaker, Kevin T; Weinstein, Ben; Costa, Gabriel C; Brooks, Thomas M; Ceballos, Gerardo; Radeloff, Volker C; Rondinini, Carlo; Graham, Catherine H

    2017-01-01

    pressures faced by populations within the ranges of individual species. The added impacts from climate change may increase the susceptibility of at-risk species to extinction and expand the regions where mammals are most vulnerable globally.

  15. Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

    Carter, P.

    2014-12-01

    This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline

  16. Landslide risk reduction strategies: an inventory for the Global South

    Maes, Jan; Kervyn, Matthieu; Vranken, Liesbet; Dewitte, Olivier; Vanmaercke, Matthias; Mertens, Kewan; Jacobs, Liesbet; Poesen, Jean

    2015-04-01

    Landslides constitute a serious problem globally. Moreover, landslide impact remains underestimated especially in the Global South. It is precisely there where the largest impact is experienced. An overview of measures taken to reduce risk of landslides in the Global South is however still lacking. Because in many countries of the Global South disaster risk reduction (DRR) is at an emerging stage, it is crucial to monitor the ongoing efforts (e.g. discussions on the Post-2015 Framework for DRR). The first objective of this study is to make an inventory of techniques and strategies that are applied to reduce risk from landslides in tropical countries. The second objective is to investigate what are the main bottlenecks for implementation of DRR strategies. In order to achieve these objectives, a review of both scientific and grey literature was conducted, supplemented with expert knowledge. The compilation of recommended and implemented DRR measures from landslide-prone tropical countries is based on an adapted classification proposed by the SafeLand project. According to Vaciago (2013), landslide risk can be reduced by either reducing the hazard, the vulnerability, the number or value of elements at risk or by sharing the residual risk. In addition, these measures can be combined with education and/or awareness raising and are influenced by governance structures and cultural beliefs. Global landslide datasets have been used to identify landslide-prone countries, augmented with region-specific datasets. Countries located in the tropics were selected in order to include landslide-prone countries with a different Human Development Index (HDI) but with a similar climate. Preliminary results support the statement made by Anderson (2013) that although the importance of shifting from post-disaster emergency actions to pre-disaster mitigation is acknowledged, in practice this paradigm shift seems rather limited. It is expected that this is especially the case in countries

  17. Visualization of the chains of risks under global climate change

    Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Sueyoshi, T.; Yoshimori, M.; Iwase, K.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Honda, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Masaki, Y.; Ito, A.; Iizumi, T.; Sakurai, G.; Okada, M.; Emori, S.; Oki, T.

    2014-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change possibly causes various impacts on human society and ecosystem. Here, we call possible damages or benefits caused by the future climate change as "climate risks". Many climate risks are closely interconnected with each other by direct cause-effect relationship. In this study, the major climate risks are comprehensively summarized based on the survey of studies in the literature using IPCC AR5 etc, and their cause-effect relationship are visualized by a "network diagram". This research is conducted by the collaboration between the experts of various fields, such as water, energy, agriculture, health, society, and eco-system under the project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). First, the climate risks are classified into 9 categories (water, energy, food, health, disaster, industry, society, ecosystem, and tipping elements). Second, researchers of these fields in our project survey the research articles, and pick up items of climate risks, and possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items. A long list of the climate risks is summarized into ~130, and that of possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items is summarized into ~300, because the network diagram would be illegible if the number of the risk items and cause-effect relationship is too large. Here, we only consider the risks that could occur if climate mitigation policies are not conducted. Finally, the chain of climate risks is visualized by creating a "network diagram" based on a network graph theory (Fruchtman & Reingold algorithm). Through the analysis of network diagram, we find that climate risks at various sectors are closely related. For example, the decrease in the precipitation under the global climate change possibly causes the decrease in river runoff and the decrease in soil moisture, which causes the changes in crop production. The changes in crop production can have an impact on society by

  18. Global Amphibian Extinction Risk Assessment for the Panzootic Chytrid Fungus

    Matthew C. Fisher

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Species are being lost at increasing rates due to anthropogenic effects, leading to the recognition that we are witnessing the onset of a sixth mass extinction. Emerging infectious disease has been shown to increase species loss and any attempts to reduce extinction rates need to squarely confront this challenge. Here, we develop a procedure for identifying amphibian species that are most at risk from the effects of chytridiomycosis by combining spatial analyses of key host life-history variables with the pathogen's predicted distribution. We apply our rule set to the known global diversity of amphibians in order to prioritize pecies that are most at risk of loss from disease emergence. This risk assessment shows where limited conservation funds are best deployed in order to prevent further loss of species by enabling ex situ amphibian salvage operations and focusing any potential disease mitigation projects.

  19. Global health risks and cosmopolitisation: from emergence to interference.

    Figuié, Muriel

    2013-02-01

    According to Beck's 'World at Risk' theory, global risks push nations towards a cosmopolitisation of their health policy and open opportunities for a democratic turn. This article provides an empirical analysis of Beck's theory, based on the experience of Vietnamese authorities from 2003 to 2007 in managing the emerging avian flu virus. It shows how Vietnam's framing of avian flu has shifted, under the pressure from international organisations and the US administration, from an epizootic and zoonotic risk (or a classic risk) to a pandemic threat (or a late modern risk). Vietnam's response was part of its overall strategy to join the World Trade Organization and it was limited by Vietnam's defence of its sovereignty. This strategy has been successful for Vietnam but has limited the possibility of cosmopolitan and democratic transformations. The case study highlights the constructed dimension of risks of late modernity and their possible instrumentalisation: it minimises the role of a community of fear relative to a community of trade. © 2013 The Author. Sociology of Health & Illness © 2013 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness/Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  20. Global ocean conveyor lowers extinction risk in the deep sea

    Henry, Lea-Anne; Frank, Norbert; Hebbeln, Dierk; Wienberg, Claudia; Robinson, Laura; van de Flierdt, Tina; Dahl, Mikael; Douarin, Mélanie; Morrison, Cheryl L.; López Correa, Matthias; Rogers, Alex D.; Ruckelshausen, Mario; Roberts, J. Murray

    2014-06-01

    General paradigms of species extinction risk are urgently needed as global habitat loss and rapid climate change threaten Earth with what could be its sixth mass extinction. Using the stony coral Lophelia pertusa as a model organism with the potential for wide larval dispersal, we investigated how the global ocean conveyor drove an unprecedented post-glacial range expansion in Earth's largest biome, the deep sea. We compiled a unique ocean-scale dataset of published radiocarbon and uranium-series dates of fossil corals, the sedimentary protactinium-thorium record of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength, authigenic neodymium and lead isotopic ratios of circulation pathways, and coral biogeography, and integrated new Bayesian estimates of historic gene flow. Our compilation shows how the export of Southern Ocean and Mediterranean waters after the Younger Dryas 11.6 kyr ago simultaneously triggered two dispersal events in the western and eastern Atlantic respectively. Each pathway injected larvae from refugia into ocean currents powered by a re-invigorated AMOC that led to the fastest postglacial range expansion ever recorded, covering 7500 km in under 400 years. In addition to its role in modulating global climate, our study illuminates how the ocean conveyor creates broad geographic ranges that lower extinction risk in the deep sea.

  1. GLObal RIsk MANagement system for plant operations GLORIMAN

    Silverman, Eugene B.

    2004-01-01

    Considerable effort has been expended by nuclear power plants in the preparation of their Independent Plant Evaluation (IPE) programs. The result of these projects is the generation of very useful information concerning plant operations, states, availability and risk. The potential application of this information is often unrealized due to the unwieldy form of the data as reported in the IPE. Plant personnel would benefit greatly from quick access to risk information as a means of supporting day-to-day decisions, but the information exists only in a difficult to understand and inaccessible form. There is a need to translate the costs invested in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) projects into a useable tool for plant personnel. This paper describes a software tool developed by ARD Corporation to be used by plants to assist in determining the operational risks and benefits associated with modifying the plant state during normal and off-normal operations for performing maintenance. This tool integrates a relational database with an easy-to-use graphical user interface and several unique software features. The result is a responsive, easy-to-understand tool that integrates an organization's PRA/IPE into the operational and maintenance needs of the station. The Global Risk Management System is designed to allow the user to evaluate the risk associated with current and proposed plant states. The impact of changes in plant configuration, operational modes and equipment availability are assessed from a risk management perspective, but displayed in an easy-to-understand form for personnel not familiar with risk methodology. Additionally, pipe and instrumentation drawings can be retrieved by the user and displayed as a reference tool. (author)

  2. Global risk of radioactive fallout after major nuclear reactor accidents

    Lelieveld, J.; Kunkel, D.; Lawrence, M.G.

    2012-01-01

    Major reactor accidents of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by ''rare''? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the cumulative, global risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents (the most severe ones on the International Nuclear Event Scale, INES 7), using particulate "1"3"7Cs and gaseous "1"3"1I as proxies for the fallout. Our results indicate that previously the occurrence of INES 7 major accidents and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated. Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute that on average, in the event of a major reactor accident of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90% of emitted "1"3"7Cs would be transported beyond 50 km and about 50% beyond 1000 km distance before being deposited. This corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and trans-boundary impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric removal processes of "1"3"7Cs and "1"3"1I are quite different, the radioactive contamination patterns over land and the human exposure due to deposition are computed to be similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in densely populated regions, notably in West Europe and South Asia, where a major reactor accident can subject around 30 million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce the national risk, though a large risk will still remain from the reactors in neighbouring countries.

  3. Asymmetric impacts of global risk appetite on the risk premium for an emerging market

    Kanlı, İbrahim Burak

    2008-05-01

    This paper analyzes the impact of global risk appetite on the risk premium utilizing high-frequency data. Taking the Turkish economy as our laboratory, we find that the risk premium volatility responds only to a worsening in the risk appetite for the Turkish economy, which is a result that we do not observe for the other emerging markets. Then, we investigate the role of current account dynamics on this asymmetric effect, by focusing also on an economy with similar current account performance. The empirical results find supporting evidence for the role of current account dynamics on the estimated asymmetry.

  4. Risk-analysis of global climate tipping points

    Frieler, Katja; Meinshausen, Malte; Braun, N [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research e.V., Potsdam (Germany). PRIMAP Research Group; and others

    2012-09-15

    There are many elements of the Earth system that are expected to change gradually with increasing global warming. Changes might prove to be reversible after global warming returns to lower levels. But there are others that have the potential of showing a threshold behavior. This means that these changes would imply a transition between qualitatively disparate states which can be triggered by only small shifts in background climate (2). These changes are often expected not to be reversible by returning to the current level of warming. The reason for that is, that many of them are characterized by self-amplifying processes that could lead to a new internally stable state which is qualitatively different from before. There are different elements of the climate system that are already identified as potential tipping elements. This group contains the mass losses of the Greenland and the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet, the decline of the Arctic summer sea ice, different monsoon systems, the degradation of coral reefs, the dieback of the Amazon rainforest, the thawing of the permafrost regions as well as the release of methane hydrates (3). Crucially, these tipping elements have regional to global scale effects on human society, biodiversity and/or ecosystem services. Several examples may have a discernable effect on global climate through a large-scale positive feedback. This means they would further amplify the human induced climate change. These tipping elements pose risks comparable to risks found in other fields of human activity: high-impact events that have at least a few percent chance to occur classify as high-risk events. In many of these examples adaptation options are limited and prevention of occurrence may be a more viable strategy. Therefore, a better understanding of the processes driving tipping points is essential. There might be other tipping elements even more critical but not yet identified. These may also lie within our socio-economic systems that are

  5. Local to global: a collaborative approach to volcanic risk assessment

    Calder, Eliza; Loughlin, Sue; Barsotti, Sara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Jenkins, Susanna

    2017-04-01

    Volcanic risk assessments at all scales present challenges related to the multitude of volcanic hazards, data gaps (hazards and vulnerability in particular), model representation and resources. Volcanic hazards include lahars, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, tephra fall, ballistics, gas dispersal and also earthquakes, debris avalanches, tsunamis and more ... they can occur in different combinations and interact in different ways throughout the unrest, eruption and post-eruption period. Volcanoes and volcanic hazards also interact with other natural hazards (e.g. intense rainfall). Currently many hazards assessments consider the hazards from a single volcano but at national to regional scales the potential impacts of multiple volcanoes over time become important. The hazards that have the greatest tendency to affect large areas up to global scale are those transported in the atmosphere: volcanic particles and gases. Volcanic ash dispersal has the greatest potential to directly or indirectly affect the largest number of people worldwide, it is currently the only volcanic hazard for which a global assessment exists. The quantitative framework used (primarily at a regional scale) considers the hazard at a given location from any volcano. Flow hazards such as lahars and floods can have devastating impacts tens of kilometres from a source volcano and lahars can be devastating decades after an eruption has ended. Quantitative assessment of impacts is increasingly undertaken after eruptions to identify thresholds for damage and reduced functionality. Some hazards such as lava flows could be considered binary (totally destructive) but others (e.g. ash fall) have varying degrees of impact. Such assessments are needed to enhance available impact and vulnerability data. Currently, most studies focus on physical vulnerability but there is a growing emphasis on social vulnerability showing that it is highly variable and dynamic with pre-eruption socio

  6. Global recession and microfinance risk governance in developing countries

    Roberto Moro Visconti

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Global recession, started in 2008, is still proving an unresolved perfect storm and the financial crisis has affected also the real economy, creating widespread social unrest. Microfinance institutions (MFIs in developing countries seem however less affected by the worldwide turmoil, due to their segmentation and resilience to external shocks. Recession has a big impact on governance mechanisms, altering the equilibriums among different stakeholders and increasing the risk of investment returns; any governance improvement is highly welcome and recommended. No governance, no money for growth or bare survival. In the confused phase we are living in, at the moment there are not evident winners, but the underbanked poorest, unless properly supported, once again risk being the ultimate losers.

  7. Global risk & global challenges - Space as a game changer for socioeconomic sustainable development

    Lehnert, Christopher; Karlsson, Evelina; Giannopapa, Christina

    2017-11-01

    The world's societies at the beginning of the 21st century are better off than ever before. (Gapminder, 2015) At the same time, the world is also threatened by global challenges where space as a tool has and can play a pivotal role in meeting those challenges. The challenges range from climate change, over mass unemployment, to terrorism or migration - to name but a few. Space activities have started to respond to this changing world, not only by providing a deeper understanding of our universe, but by using space as an additional sphere and sector, through which humankind can increase and secure its wealth - it is thus game changing in the way we sustain humanity's existence. This paper is meant to capture this development. In the first part, an overview is given on the risks that humankind is facing. The second part describes the way that space can be used as a tool to prevent and manage these risks. The overview in the first part is based on the examination of the most recent reports and overall strategies of key International Governmental Organisations and Non-Governmental Organisations that are involved in agenda-setting, policy formulation and implementation. The second part includes an overview on current activities of the European Space Agency (ESA) that play a role in responding to these risks. To better understand ESA's activities that contain humanity's risks, a standard classification for risks management is used, which distinguishes between four components: Identification, Assessment, Management and Communication (Renn, 2005). The analysis reveals how space activities already today play a pivotal role in all four types of risk management. Space activities contribute very tangible to the management of risks through its space mission, but also in a more indirect way, as providing the technical backbone for stable and reliable cooperation in the international governance arena, and serve as crucial economic stimulator. The overall results show that space

  8. A global assessment of closed forests, deforestation and malaria risk

    GUERRA, C. A.; SNOW, R. W.; HAY, S. I.

    2011-01-01

    Global environmental change is expected to affect profoundly the transmission of the parasites that cause human malaria. Amongst the anthropogenic drivers of change, deforestation is arguably the most conspicuous, and its rate is projected to increase in the coming decades. The canonical epidemiological understanding is that deforestation increases malaria risk in Africa and the Americas and diminishes it in South–east Asia. Partial support for this position is provided here, through a systematic review of the published literature on deforestation, malaria and the relevant vector bionomics. By using recently updated boundaries for the spatial limits of malaria and remotely-sensed estimates of tree cover, it has been possible to determine the population at risk of malaria in closed forest, at least for those malaria-endemic countries that lie within the main blocks of tropical forest. Closed forests within areas of malaria risk cover approximately 1.5 million km2 in the Amazon region, 1.4 million km2 in Central Africa, 1.2 million km2 in the Western Pacific, and 0.7 million km2 in South–east Asia. The corresponding human populations at risk of malaria within these forests total 11.7 million, 18.7 million, 35.1 million and 70.1 million, respectively. By coupling these numbers with the country-specific rates of deforestation, it has been possible to rank malaria-endemic countries according to their potential for change in the population at risk of malaria, as the result of deforestation. The on-going research aimed at evaluating these relationships more quantitatively, through the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP), is highlighted. PMID:16630376

  9. Risks in global natural gas markets: Investment, hedging and trade

    Egging, Ruud; Holz, Franziska

    2016-01-01

    Recent supply security concerns in Europe have revived interest into the natural gas market. We investigate infrastructure investment and trade in an imperfect market structure for various possible risks for both supply and demand. We focus on three possible scenarios in a stochastic global gas market model: (i) transit of Russian gas via Ukraine that may be disrupted from 2020 on; (ii) natural gas intensity of electricity generation in OECD countries that may lead to higher or lower natural gas demand after 2025; and (iii) availability of shale gas around the globe after 2030. We illustrate how the timing of investments is affected by inter-temporal hedging behavior of market agents, such as when LNG capacity provides ex-ante flexibility or an ex-post fallback option if domestic or nearby pipeline supply sources are low. Moreover, we find that investment in LNG capacities is more determined by demand side pull – due to higher needs in electric power generation – than by supply side push, e.g. higher shale gas supplies needing an outlet. We focus on Europe, North America, and China that are the world's most important gas consuming and supplying regions. - Highlights: •We use the stochastic variant of the multi-period Global Gas Model. •We investigate the effects of uncertainty in Russian exports, demand, and shale gas. •We find that LNG is preferred as hedging option in anticipation of uncertain events. •Pipelines may be chosen as recourse decision after uncertain events realized. •China will dominate the global natural gas market regardless the scenario.

  10. Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  11. Global risk of pharmaceutical contamination from highly populated developing countries.

    Rehman, Muhammad Saif Ur; Rashid, Naim; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Saif, Ameena; Ahmad, Nasir; Han, Jong-In

    2015-11-01

    Global pharmaceutical industry has relocated from the west to Asian countries to ensure competitive advantage. This industrial relocation has posed serious threats to the environment. The present study was carried out to assess the possible pharmaceutical contamination in the environment of emerging pharmaceutical manufacturing countries (Bangladesh, China, India and Pakistan). Although these countries have made tremendous progress in the pharmaceutical sector but most of their industrial units discharge wastewater into domestic sewage network without any treatment. The application of untreated wastewater (industrial and domestic) and biosolids (sewage sludge and manure) in agriculture causes the contamination of surface water, soil, groundwater, and the entire food web with pharmaceutical compounds (PCs), their metabolites and transformed products (TPs), and multidrug resistant microbes. This pharmaceutical contamination in Asian countries poses global risks via product export and international traveling. Several prospective research hypotheses including the development of new analytical methods to monitor these PCs/TPs and their metabolites, highly resistant microbial strains, and mixture toxicity as a consequence of pharmaceutical contamination in these emerging pharmaceutical exporters have also been proposed based on the available literature. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Climate change, global risks, challenges and decisions. Synthesis report

    Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Schellnhuber, H.J.

    2009-03-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009 (the 15th Conference of the Parties, COP-15) will be a critical step in developing a global response to the threat of climate change caused by human activities. The primary scientific input to those negotiations is the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2007. The IPCC report has already been instrumental in increasing both public and political awareness of the societal risks associated with unchecked emission of greenhouse gases. Since the production of the IPCC report, new knowledge has emerged that furthers understanding of the impacts of human influence on the climate and the response options and approaches that are available to tackle this complex issue. To bring this new knowledge together, the International Alliance of Research Universities organised an international scientific congress on climate change, Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions, which was held in Copenhagen from 10-12 March 2009. Participants came from nearly 80 different countries and contributed with more than 1400 scientific presentations. Abstracts for all of the scientific presentations made can be found at www.iop.org/EJ/volume/1755-1315/6, and a transcript of the closing plenary session can be found at environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/opinion/39126. This synthesis report presents an up-to-date overview of a broad range of research relevant to climate change - including fundamental climate science, the impacts of a changing climate on society and environment, and the many tools and approaches available to deal effectively with the challenge of climate change. (LN)

  13. Global review of open access risk assessment software packages valid for global or continental scale analysis

    Daniell, James; Simpson, Alanna; Gunasekara, Rashmin; Baca, Abigail; Schaefer, Andreas; Ishizawa, Oscar; Murnane, Rick; Tijssen, Annegien; Deparday, Vivien; Forni, Marc; Himmelfarb, Anne; Leder, Jan

    2015-04-01

    Over the past few decades, a plethora of open access software packages for the calculation of earthquake, volcanic, tsunami, storm surge, wind and flood have been produced globally. As part of the World Bank GFDRR Review released at the Understanding Risk 2014 Conference, over 80 such open access risk assessment software packages were examined. Commercial software was not considered in the evaluation. A preliminary analysis was used to determine whether the 80 models were currently supported and if they were open access. This process was used to select a subset of 31 models that include 8 earthquake models, 4 cyclone models, 11 flood models, and 8 storm surge/tsunami models for more detailed analysis. By using multi-criteria analysis (MCDA) and simple descriptions of the software uses, the review allows users to select a few relevant software packages for their own testing and development. The detailed analysis evaluated the models on the basis of over 100 criteria and provides a synopsis of available open access natural hazard risk modelling tools. In addition, volcano software packages have since been added making the compendium of risk software tools in excess of 100. There has been a huge increase in the quality and availability of open access/source software over the past few years. For example, private entities such as Deltares now have an open source policy regarding some flood models (NGHS). In addition, leaders in developing risk models in the public sector, such as Geoscience Australia (EQRM, TCRM, TsuDAT, AnuGA) or CAPRA (ERN-Flood, Hurricane, CRISIS2007 etc.), are launching and/or helping many other initiatives. As we achieve greater interoperability between modelling tools, we will also achieve a future wherein different open source and open access modelling tools will be increasingly connected and adapted towards unified multi-risk model platforms and highly customised solutions. It was seen that many software tools could be improved by enabling user

  14. Managing Food Quality Risk in Global Supply Chain: A Risk Management Framework

    Pablo Jose Arevalo Chavez

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Today, the food sector is one of the sectors most vulnerable to intentional contamination by debilitating agents [1]. Some cases of contaminated food have indicated that product quality risk is one of the vulnerabilities in the global supply chain. A series of company scandals, affecting reputation and causing the recall of products and increasing costs have hit the food industry. The obvious problem is that even a minor incident in one part of the chain can have disastrous effects on other parts of the supply chain. Thus, risks are transmitted through the chain. Even though the dangers from members in the supply chain are small, the cumulative effect becomes significant. The aim of this study is to propose an integrated supply chain risk management framework for practitioners that can provide directions for how to evaluate food quality risk in the global supply chain. For validating the proposed model in‐depth, a case study is conducted on a food SME distributor in Central America. The case study investigates how product quality risks are handled according to the proposed framework.

  15. Instant OpenCV starter

    Dalal, Jayneil

    2013-01-01

    Get to grips with a new technology, understand what it is and what it can do for you, and then get to work with the most important features and tasks.A practical, quick, and hands-on guide for Python developers and hobbyists who want to get started with computer vision with OpenCV.This book is great for developers, hobbyists, and students new to computer vision who are looking to get a good grounding in how to use the OpenCV library. It's assumed that you will have some basic experience in C/C++ programming.

  16. Global water risks and national security: Building resilience (Invited)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2013-12-01

    The UN defines water security as the capacity of a population to safeguard sustainable access to adequate quantities of acceptable quality water for sustaining livelihoods, human well-being, and socio-economic development, for ensuring protection against water-borne pollution and water-related disasters, and for preserving ecosystems in a climate of peace and political stability. This definition highlights complex and interconnected challenges and underscores the centrality of water for environmental services and human aactivities. Global risks are expressed at the national level. The 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review and the 2010 National Security Strategy identify climate change as likely to trigger outcomes that will threaten U.S. security including how freshwater resources can become a security issue. Impacts will be felt on the National Security interest through water, food and energy security, and critical infrastructure. This recognition focuses the need to consider the rates of change in climate extremes, in the context of more traditional political, economic, and social indicators that inform security analyses. There is a long-standing academic debate over the extent to which resource constraints and environmental challenges lead to inter-state conflict. It is generally recognized that water resources as a security issue to date exists mainly at the substate level and has not led to physical conflict between nation states. In conflict and disaster zones, threats to water security increase through inequitable and difficult access to water supply and related services, which may aggravate existing social fragility, tensions, violence, and conflict. This paper will (1) Outline the dimensions of water security and its links to national security (2) Analyze water footprints and management risks for key basins in the US and around the world, (3) map the link between global water security and national concerns, drawing lessons from the drought of 2012 and elsewhere

  17. Managing Food Quality Risk in Global Supply Chain: A Risk Management Framework

    Arevalo Chavez, Pablo Jose; Seow, Christopher

    2012-01-01

    Today, the food sector is one of the sectors most vulnerable to intentional contamination by debilitating agents [1]. Some cases of contaminated food have indicated that product quality risk is one of the vulnerabilities in the global supply chain. A series of company scandals, affecting reputation and causing the recall of products and increasing costs have hit the food industry. The obvious problem is that even a minor incident in one part of the chain can have disastrous effects on other p...

  18. Research Synthesis Methods in an Age of Globalized Risks: Lessons from the Global Burden of Foodborne Disease Expert Elicitation

    Hald, Tine; Angulo, Fred; Bin Hamzah, Wan Mansor

    2016-01-01

    We live in an age that increasingly calls for national or regional management of global risks. This article discusses the contributions that expert elicitation can bring to efforts to manage global risks and identifies challenges faced in conducting expert elicitation at this scale. In doing so...... it draws on lessons learned from conducting an expert elicitation as part of the World Health Organizations (WHO) initiative to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease; a study commissioned by the Foodborne Disease Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG). Expert elicitation is designed to fill gaps...

  19. Elder Abuse: Global Situation, Risk Factors, and Prevention Strategies.

    Pillemer, Karl; Burnes, David; Riffin, Catherine; Lachs, Mark S

    2016-04-01

    Elder mistreatment is now recognized internationally as a pervasive and growing problem, urgently requiring the attention of health care systems, social welfare agencies, policymakers, and the general public. In this article, we provide an overview of global issues in the field of elder abuse, with a focus on prevention. This article provides a scoping review of key issues in the field from an international perspective. By drawing primarily on population-based studies, this scoping review provided a more valid and reliable synthesis of current knowledge about prevalence and risk factors than has been available. Despite the lack of scientifically rigorous intervention research on elder abuse, the review also identified 5 promising strategies for prevention. The findings highlight a growing consensus across studies regarding the extent and causes of elder mistreatment, as well as the urgent need for efforts to make elder mistreatment prevention programs more effective and evidence based. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. Flood damage curves for consistent global risk assessments

    de Moel, Hans; Huizinga, Jan; Szewczyk, Wojtek

    2016-04-01

    Assessing potential damage of flood events is an important component in flood risk management. Determining direct flood damage is commonly done using depth-damage curves, which denote the flood damage that would occur at specific water depths per asset or land-use class. Many countries around the world have developed flood damage models using such curves which are based on analysis of past flood events and/or on expert judgement. However, such damage curves are not available for all regions, which hampers damage assessments in those regions. Moreover, due to different methodologies employed for various damage models in different countries, damage assessments cannot be directly compared with each other, obstructing also supra-national flood damage assessments. To address these problems, a globally consistent dataset of depth-damage curves has been developed. This dataset contains damage curves depicting percent of damage as a function of water depth as well as maximum damage values for a variety of assets and land use classes (i.e. residential, commercial, agriculture). Based on an extensive literature survey concave damage curves have been developed for each continent, while differentiation in flood damage between countries is established by determining maximum damage values at the country scale. These maximum damage values are based on construction cost surveys from multinational construction companies, which provide a coherent set of detailed building cost data across dozens of countries. A consistent set of maximum flood damage values for all countries was computed using statistical regressions with socio-economic World Development Indicators from the World Bank. Further, based on insights from the literature survey, guidance is also given on how the damage curves and maximum damage values can be adjusted for specific local circumstances, such as urban vs. rural locations, use of specific building material, etc. This dataset can be used for consistent supra

  1. Which part of a short, global risk assessment, the Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community, predicts adverse healthcare outcomes?

    O’Caoimh, Rónán

    2015-01-01

    The Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community (RISC) is a short, global risk assessment to identify community-dwelling older adults’ one-year risk of institutionalisation, hospitalisation, and death. We investigated the contribution that the three components of the RISC (\

  2. The process of developing policy based on global environmental risk assessment

    Fisk, D.J.

    1995-01-01

    A brief presentation is given on developing policy based on a global environmental risk assessment. The author looks at the global warming issue as if it were a formal problem in risk assessment. He uses that framework to make one or two suggestions as to how the interaction of policy and research might evolve as the climate convention progresses

  3. Global Risk Diversification: An Empirical Investigation From The U. S. Perspective

    H. Christine Hsu

    2011-01-01

    The case for global risk diversification has been built on correlations between the U.S. and international stock markets. Now that we witness how tightly the world stock markets are correlated, especially after the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, does it still make sense to diversify globally? Can the investments in global equity portfolios be protected in todays volatile markets? These questions have preoccupied a growing number of portfolio managers in recent years, as well as many of...

  4. A global overview of risk management of the DOE complex

    Alesso, H.P.; Majumdar, K.C.

    1993-01-01

    No endeavor is risk-fire and as we realize the inherent risks in society, our only viable solution is to manage the risk. Application of an integrated risk management program of a large technological system like the DOE complex is a difficult, task; but it is the only rational means to optimize the risk-benefit equation. An effective risk management culture-within the DOE complex will in the long run, ensure a consistent response to mitigate identified risks. An effective risk management program provides responsible administrative planning and logical application of the best technical analyses. It requires the involvement of all personnel. Our objective in this paper is to point out broad perspectives that raise concerns about future DOE ask management issues and to suggest some possible remedies

  5. The Functions of Sourcing Intermediaries in Global Supply Risk Management

    Vedel, Mette; Ellegaard, Chris

    The aim of this work-in-progress paper is to uncover the supply risk management functions performed by sourcing intermediaries. The purchasing and supply chain management literature, including the part of it concerned with supply risk, pays little attention to sourcing intermediaries....... But the fields of marketing and international business have investigated the intermediary including its high supply risk reducing potentials, suggesting that this supply chain entity may be highly relevant to supply risk management. In order to get a better understanding of the supply risk reducing properties...... of sourcing intermediaries, we perform a study of the Danish clothing industry. The study incorporate interviews across a range of functions and companies in this industry including retailers, producers, suppliers, and various types of intermediaries. We contribute by coupling the supply risk management...

  6. Global Variance Risk Premium and Forex Return Predictability

    Aloosh, Arash

    2014-01-01

    In a long-run risk model with stochastic volatility and frictionless markets, I express expected forex returns as a function of consumption growth variances and stock variance risk premiums (VRPs)—the difference between the risk-neutral and statistical expectations of market return variation. This provides a motivation for using the forward-looking information available in stock market volatility indices to predict forex returns. Empirically, I find that stock VRPs predict forex returns at a ...

  7. Recursive inter-generational utility in global climate risk modeling

    Minh, Ha-Duong [Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement (CIRED-CNRS), 75 - Paris (France); Treich, N. [Institut National de Recherches Agronomiques (INRA-LEERNA), 31 - Toulouse (France)

    2003-07-01

    This paper distinguishes relative risk aversion and resistance to inter-temporal substitution in climate risk modeling. Stochastic recursive preferences are introduced in a stylized numeric climate-economy model using preliminary IPCC 1998 scenarios. It shows that higher risk aversion increases the optimal carbon tax. Higher resistance to inter-temporal substitution alone has the same effect as increasing the discount rate, provided that the risk is not too large. We discuss implications of these findings for the debate upon discounting and sustainability under uncertainty. (author)

  8. OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS OF GLOBALIZATION IN RURAL AREAS. CASE STUDY: BOTOSANI COUNTY

    Maria-Simona Cuciureanu

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The global economy plays an important role in the development of a region or a county/district as it promotes the exploitation of resources and space in a logical and rational manner. The trend of global economic uniformity allows opportunities and risks to Botoșani County since globalization involves economic development and rising living standards, but loss of cultural values, traditions and customs. The area of study currently confronts with socio-economic and demographic changes that may be addressed by globalization, but at the same time spatial development according to global standards will cause the loss of Botoșani County’s authenticity.

  9. LEADER 5: prevalence and cardiometabolic impact of obesity in cardiovascular high-risk patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: baseline global data from the LEADER trial.

    Masmiquel, L; Leiter, L A; Vidal, J; Bain, S; Petrie, J; Franek, E; Raz, I; Comlekci, A; Jacob, S; van Gaal, L; Baeres, F M M; Marso, S P; Eriksson, M

    2016-02-10

    Epidemiological data on obesity are needed, particularly in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and high cardiovascular (CV) risk. We used the baseline data of liraglutide effect and action in diabetes: evaluation of CV outcome results-A long term Evaluation (LEADER) (a clinical trial to assess the CV safety of liraglutide) to investigate: (i) prevalence of overweight and obesity; (ii) relationship of the major cardiometabolic risk factors with anthropometric measures of adiposity [body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC)]; and (iii) cardiometabolic treatment intensity in relation to BMI and WC. LEADER enrolled two distinct populations of high-risk patients with T2DM in 32 countries: (1) aged ≥50 years with prior CV disease; (2) aged ≥60 years with one or more CV risk factors. Associations of metabolic variables, demographic variables and treatment intensity with anthropometric measurements (BMI and WC) were explored using regression models (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01179048). Mean BMI was 32.5 ± 6.3 kg/m(2) and only 9.1 % had BMI prevalence of healthy WC was also extremely low (6.4 % according to International Joint Interim Statement for the Harmonization of the Metabolic Syndrome criteria). Obesity was associated with being younger, female, previous smoker, Caucasian, American, with shorter diabetes duration, uncontrolled blood pressure (BP), antihypertensive agents, insulin plus oral antihyperglycaemic treatment, higher levels of triglycerides and lower levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Overweight and obesity are prevalent in high CV risk patients with T2DM. BMI and WC are related to the major cardiometabolic risk factors. Furthermore, treatment intensity, such as insulin, statins or oral antihypertensive drugs, is higher in those who are overweight or obese; while BP and lipid control in these patients are remarkably suboptimal. LEADER confers a unique opportunity to explore the longitudinal effect of weight on CV

  10. Habitats at Risk. Global Warming and Species Loss in Globally Significant Terrestrial Ecosystems

    Malcolm, J.R.; Liu, Canran; Miller, L.B.; Allnutt, T.; Hansen, L.

    2002-02-01

    In this study, a suite of models of global climate and vegetation change is used to investigate three important global warming-induced threats to the terrestrial Global 200 ecoregions: (1) Invasions by new habitat types (and corresponding loss of original habitat types); (2) Local changes of habitat types; (3) High rates of required species migration. Seven climate models (general circulation models or GCMs) and two vegetation models (BIOME3 and MAPSS) were used to produce 14 impact scenarios under the climate associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, which is expected to occur in less than 100 years. Previous analyses indicated that most of the variation among the impact scenarios was attributable to the particular vegetation model used, hence the authors provide results separately for the two models. The models do not provide information on biodiversity per se, but instead simulate current and future potential distributions of major vegetation types (biomes) such as tundra and broadleaf tropical rain forest

  11. Rationale and design of INTERSTROKE: a global case-control study of risk factors for stroke

    O'Donnell, M; Serpault, Damien Xavier; Diener, C

    2010-01-01

    Stroke is a major global health problem. It is the third leading cause of death and the leading cause of adult disability. INTERHEART, a global case-control study of acute myocardial infarction in 52 countries (29,972 participants), identified nine modifiable risk factors that accounted for >90% ...

  12. Risk analysis reveals global hotspots for marine debris ingestion by sea turtles

    Schuyler, Qamar A.; Wilcox, Chris; Townsend, Kathy A.; Wedemeyer-Strombel, Kathryn R.; Balazs, George; van Sebille, Erik|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831921; Hardesty, Britta Denise

    2016-01-01

    Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with

  13. A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States

    Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; Karin L. Riley; Christopher M. Oswalt; Susan J. Crocker; Gary W. Yohe

    2013-01-01

    Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C), but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and...

  14. Coping with global environmental change, disasters and security: threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks

    Brauch, H.G.; Oswald Spring, Ú.; Mesjasz, C.; Grin, J.; Kameri-Mbote, P.; Chourou, B.; Dunay, P.; Birkmann, J.

    2011-01-01

    This policy-focused Global Environmental and Human Security Handbook for the Anthropo-cene (GEHSHA) addresses new security threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks posed by global environmental change and disasters. In 6 forewords, 5 preface essays 95 peer reviewed chapcountries analyse in 10

  15. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013

    Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.; Alexander, Lily; Anderson, H. Ross

    2015-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the fi rst of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantifi cation, particularly of modifi able risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for ...

  16. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013

    Forouzanfar, M.H.; Alexander, L.; Ross Anderson, H.; Geleijnse, J.M.

    2015-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for

  17. What can'(t) we do with global flood risk models?

    Ward, P.; Jongman, B.; Salamon, P.; Simpson, A.; Bates, P. D.; de Groeve, T.; Muis, S.; Coughlan, E.; Rudari, R.; Trigg, M. A.; Winsemius, H.

    2015-12-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward, P.J. et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742.

  18. Global Credit Risk: World, Country and Industry Factors

    Schwaab, B.; Koopman, S.J.; Lucas, A.

    2017-01-01

    We investigate the dynamic properties of systematic default risk conditions for firms in different countries, industries and rating groups. We use a high-dimensional nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space model to estimate common components in corporate defaults in a 41 country samples between 1980:Q1

  19. Global Production Planning Process considering the Supply Risk of Overseas Manufacturing Sites

    Hosang Jung

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Although global manufacturers can produce most of their final products in local plants, they need to source components or parts from desirable overseas manufacturing partners at low cost in order to fulfill customer orders. In this global manufacturing environment, capacity information for planning is usually imprecise owing to the various risks of overseas plants (e.g., foreign governments’ policies and labor stability. It is therefore not easy for decision-makers to generate a global production plan showing the production amounts at local plants and overseas manufacturing facilities operated by manufacturing partners. In this paper, we present a new global production planning process considering the supply risk of overseas manufacturing sites. First, local experts estimate the supply capacity of an overseas plant using their judgment to determine when the risk could occur and how large the risk impact would be. Next, we run a global production planning model with the estimated supply capacities. The proposed process systematically adopts the qualitative judgments of local experts in the global production planning process and thus can provide companies with a realistic global production plan. We demonstrate the applicability of the proposed process with a real world case.

  20. Global obesity: trends, risk factors and policy implications.

    Malik, Vasanti S; Willett, Walter C; Hu, Frank B

    2013-01-01

    The worldwide increase in obesity and related chronic diseases has largely been driven by global trade liberalization, economic growth and rapid urbanization. These factors continue to fuel dramatic changes in living environments, diets and lifestyles in ways that promote positive energy balance. Nutritional transitions in low-income and middle-income countries are typically characterized by increases in the consumption of animal fat and protein, refined grains, and added sugar. This change is coupled with reductions in physical activity owing to more mechanized and technologically driven lifestyles. Given the high costs of obesity and comorbidities in terms of health-care expenditure and quality of life, prevention strategies are paramount, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries that must manage coexisting infectious diseases and undernutrition in addition to the obesity epidemic. As countries become increasingly urbanized, undernutrition and obesity can exist side by side within the same country, community or household, which is a particular challenge for health systems with limited resources. Owing to the scope and complexity of the obesity epidemic, prevention strategies and policies across multiple levels are needed in order to have a measurable effect. Changes should include high-level global policies from the international community and coordinated efforts by governments, organizations, communities and individuals to positively influence behavioural change.

  1. Global oil risks in the early 21st century

    Fantazzini, Dean; Höök, Mikael; Angelantoni, André

    2011-01-01

    The Deepwater Horizon incident demonstrated that most of the oil left is deep offshore or in other difficult to reach locations. Moreover, obtaining the oil remaining in currently producing reservoirs requires additional equipment and technology that comes at a higher price in both capital and energy. In this regard, the physical limitations on producing the ever-increasing quantities of oil are highlighted as well as the possibility of the peak of production occurring this decade. The economics of oil supply and demand are also briefly discussed showing why the available supply is basically fixed in the short to medium term. Also, an alarm bell for economic recessions is shown to be when energy takes a disproportionate amount of total consumer expenditures. In this context, risk mitigation practices in government and business are called for. As for the former, early education of the citizenry of the risk of economic contraction is a prudent policy to minimize potential future social discord. As for the latter, all business operations should be examined with the aim of building in resilience and preparing for a scenario in which capital and energy are much more expensive than in the business-as-usual one. - Highlights: ► Review of the physical background to peak oil and current oil situation. ► Economics of oil supply and demand are examined to identify imminent challenges. ► Investigation of the financial and energy transition risks associated with peak oil. ► Oil scarcity and price volatility induce certain governmental and business risks. ► General risk mitigation is vital and peak oil preparations should be undertaken.

  2. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

    Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Alexander, Lily; Anderson, H Ross; Bachman, Victoria F; Biryukov, Stan; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Casey, Daniel; Coates, Matthew M; Cohen, Aaron; Delwiche, Kristen; Estep, Kara; Frostad, Joseph J; Kc, Astha; Kyu, Hmwe H; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Ng, Marie; Slepak, Erica Leigh; Thomas, Bernadette A; Wagner, Joseph; Aasvang, Gunn Marit; Abbafati, Cristiana; Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abera, Semaw F; Aboyans, Victor; Abraham, Biju; Abraham, Jerry Puthenpurakal; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E; Aburto, Tania C; Achoki, Tom; Adelekan, Ademola; Adofo, Koranteng; Adou, Arsène K; Adsuar, José C; Afshin, Ashkan; Agardh, Emilie E; Al Khabouri, Mazin J; Al Lami, Faris H; Alam, Sayed Saidul; Alasfoor, Deena; Albittar, Mohammed I; Alegretti, Miguel A; Aleman, Alicia V; Alemu, Zewdie A; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Alhabib, Samia; Ali, Raghib; Ali, Mohammed K; Alla, François; Allebeck, Peter; Allen, Peter J; Alsharif, Ubai; Alvarez, Elena; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amankwaa, Adansi A; Amare, Azmeraw T; Ameh, Emmanuel A; Ameli, Omid; Amini, Heresh; Ammar, Walid; Anderson, Benjamin O; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Anwari, Palwasha; Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu; Arnlöv, Johan; Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic; Artaman, Al; Asghar, Rana J; Assadi, Reza; Atkins, Lydia S; Atkinson, Charles; Avila, Marco A; Awuah, Baffour; Badawi, Alaa; Bahit, Maria C; Bakfalouni, Talal; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Balalla, Shivanthi; Balu, Ravi Kumar; Banerjee, Amitava; Barber, Ryan M; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L; Barquera, Simon; Barregard, Lars; Barrero, Lope H; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Basto-Abreu, Ana C; Basu, Arindam; Basu, Sanjay; Basulaiman, Mohammed O; Ruvalcaba, Carolina Batis; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Bekele, Tolesa; Bell, Michelle L; Benjet, Corina; Bennett, Derrick A; Benzian, Habib; Bernabé, Eduardo; Beyene, Tariku J; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhalla, Ashish; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Bikbov, Boris; Abdulhak, Aref A Bin; Blore, Jed D; Blyth, Fiona M; Bohensky, Megan A; Başara, Berrak Bora; Borges, Guilherme; Bornstein, Natan M; Bose, Dipan; Boufous, Soufiane; Bourne, Rupert R; Brainin, Michael; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas J; Brenner, Hermann; Briggs, Adam D M; Broday, David M; Brooks, Peter M; Bruce, Nigel G; Brugha, Traolach S; Brunekreef, Bert|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/067548180; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Bui, Linh N; Bukhman, Gene; Bulloch, Andrew G; Burch, Michael; Burney, Peter G J; Campos-Nonato, Ismael R; Campuzano, Julio C; Cantoral, Alejandra J; Caravanos, Jack; Cárdenas, Rosario; Cardis, Elisabeth; Carpenter, David O; Caso, Valeria; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A; Castro, Ruben E; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Cavalleri, Fiorella; Çavlin, Alanur; Chadha, Vineet K; Chang, Jung-Chen; Charlson, Fiona J; Chen, Honglei; Chen, Wanqing; Chen, Zhengming; Chiang, Peggy P; Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christophi, Costas A; Chuang, Ting-Wu; Chugh, Sumeet S; Cirillo, Massimo; Claßen, Thomas Kd; Colistro, Valentina; Colomar, Mercedes; Colquhoun, Samantha M; Contreras, Alejandra G; Cooper, Cyrus; Cooperrider, Kimberly; Cooper, Leslie T; Coresh, Josef; Courville, Karen J; Criqui, Michael H; Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia; Damsere-Derry, James; Danawi, Hadi; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Dargan, Paul I; Davis, Adrian; Davitoiu, Dragos V; Dayama, Anand; de Castro, E Filipa; De la Cruz-Góngora, Vanessa; De Leo, Diego; de Lima, Graça; Degenhardt, Louisa; Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja; Dellavalle, Robert P; Deribe, Kebede; Derrett, Sarah; Jarlais, Don C Des; Dessalegn, Muluken; deVeber, Gabrielle A; Devries, Karen M; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Dherani, Mukesh K; Dicker, Daniel; Ding, Eric L; Dokova, Klara; Dorsey, E Ray; Driscoll, Tim R; Duan, Leilei; Durrani, Adnan M; Ebel, Beth E; Ellenbogen, Richard G; Elshrek, Yousef M; Endres, Matthias; Ermakov, Sergey P; Erskine, Holly E; Eshrati, Babak; Esteghamati, Alireza; Fahimi, Saman; Faraon, Emerito Jose A; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fay, Derek F J; Feigin, Valery L; Feigl, Andrea B; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Ferrari, Alize J; Ferri, Cleusa P; Flaxman, Abraham D; Fleming, Thomas D; Foigt, Nataliya; Foreman, Kyle J; Paleo, Urbano Fra; Franklin, Richard C; Gabbe, Belinda; Gaffikin, Lynne; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Gamkrelidze, Amiran; Gankpé, Fortuné G; Gansevoort, Ron T; García-Guerra, Francisco A; Gasana, Evariste; Geleijnse, Johanna M; Gessner, Bradford D; Gething, Pete; Gibney, Katherine B; Gillum, Richard F; Ginawi, Ibrahim A M; Giroud, Maurice; Giussani, Giorgia; Goenka, Shifalika; Goginashvili, Ketevan; Dantes, Hector Gomez; Gona, Philimon; de Cosio, Teresita Gonzalez; González-Castell, Dinorah; Gotay, Carolyn C; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N; Guerrant, Richard L; Gugnani, Harish C; Guillemin, Francis; Gunnell, David; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gutiérrez, Reyna A; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hagan, Holly; Hagstromer, Maria; Halasa, Yara A; Hamadeh, Randah R; Hammami, Mouhanad; Hankey, Graeme J; Hao, Yuantao; Harb, Hilda L; Haregu, Tilahun Nigatu; Haro, Josep Maria; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hay, Simon I; Hedayati, Mohammad T; Heredia-Pi, Ileana B; Hernandez, Lucia; Heuton, Kyle R; Heydarpour, Pouria; Hijar, Martha; Hoek, Hans W; Hoffman, Howard J; Hornberger, John C|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304838993; Hosgood, H Dean; Hoy, Damian G; Hsairi, Mohamed; Hu, Guoqing; Hu, Howard; Huang, Cheng; Huang, John J; Hubbell, Bryan J; Huiart, Laetitia; Husseini, Abdullatif; Iannarone, Marissa L; Iburg, Kim M; Idrisov, Bulat T; Ikeda, Nayu; Innos, Kaire; Inoue, Manami; Islami, Farhad; Ismayilova, Samaya; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Jansen, Henrica A; Jarvis, Deborah L; Jassal, Simerjot K; Jauregui, Alejandra; Jayaraman, Sudha; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jensen, Paul N; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Fan; Jiang, Guohong; Jiang, Ying; Jonas, Jost B; Juel, Knud; Kan, Haidong; Roseline, Sidibe S Kany; Karam, Nadim E; Karch, André; Karema, Corine K; Karthikeyan, Ganesan; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Kazi, Dhruv S; Kemp, Andrew H; Kengne, Andre P; Keren, Andre; Khader, Yousef S; Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan; Khan, Ejaz A; Khang, Young-Ho; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Khonelidze, Irma; Kieling, Christian; Kim, Daniel; Kim, Sungroul; Kim, Yunjin; Kimokoti, Ruth W; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kinge, Jonas M; Kissela, Brett M; Kivipelto, Miia; Knibbs, Luke D; Knudsen, Ann Kristin; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kose, M Rifat; Kosen, Soewarta; Kraemer, Alexander; Kravchenko, Michael; Krishnaswami, Sanjay; Kromhout, Hans|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/074385224; Ku, Tiffany; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate; Bicer, Burcu Kucuk; Kuipers, Ernst J; Kulkarni, Chanda; Kulkarni, Veena S; Kumar, G Anil; Kwan, Gene F; Lai, Taavi; Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lallukka, Tea; Lam, Hilton; Lan, Qing; Lansingh, Van C; Larson, Heidi J; Larsson, Anders; Laryea, Dennis O; Lavados, Pablo M; Lawrynowicz, Alicia E; Leasher, Janet L; Lee, Jong-Tae; Leigh, James; Leung, Ricky; Levi, Miriam; Li, Yichong; Li, Yongmei; Liang, Juan; Liang, Xiaofeng; Lim, Stephen S; Lindsay, M Patrice; Lipshultz, Steven E; Liu, Shiwei; Liu, Yang; Lloyd, Belinda K; Logroscino, Giancarlo; London, Stephanie J; Lopez, Nancy; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lozano, Rafael; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Ma, Jixiang; Ma, Stefan; Machado, Vasco M P; MacIntyre, Michael F; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Mahdi, Abbas A; Majdan, Marek; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mangalam, Srikanth; Mapoma, Christopher C; Marape, Marape; Marcenes, Wagner; Margolis, David J; Margono, Christopher; Marks, Guy B; Martin, Randall V; Marzan, Melvin B; Mashal, Mohammad T; Masiye, Felix; Mason-Jones, Amanda J; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Matzopoulos, Richard; Mayosi, Bongani M; Mazorodze, Tasara T; McKay, Abigail C; McKee, Martin; McLain, Abigail; Meaney, Peter A; Medina, Catalina; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola; Mekonnen, Wubegzier; Melaku, Yohannes A; Meltzer, Michele; Memish, Ziad A; Mendoza, Walter; Mensah, George A; Meretoja, Atte; Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary; Micha, Renata; Miller, Ted R; Mills, Edward J; Misganaw, Awoke; Mishra, Santosh; Ibrahim, Norlinah Mohamed; Mohammad, Karzan A; Mokdad, Ali H; Mola, Glen L; Monasta, Lorenzo; Hernandez, Julio C Montañez; Montico, Marcella; Moore, Ami R; Morawska, Lidia; Mori, Rintaro; Moschandreas, Joanna; Moturi, Wilkister N; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Mueller, Ulrich O; Mukaigawara, Mitsuru; Mullany, Erin C; Murthy, Kinnari S; Naghavi, Mohsen; Nahas, Ziad; Naheed, Aliya; Naidoo, Kovin S; Naldi, Luigi; Nand, Devina; Nangia, Vinay; Narayan, Km Venkat; Nash, Denis; Neal, Bruce; Nejjari, Chakib; Neupane, Sudan P; Newton, Charles R; Ngalesoni, Frida N; de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean; Nguyen, Grant; Nguyen, Nhung T; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J; Nisar, Muhammad I; Nogueira, José R; Nolla, Joan M; Nolte, Sandra; Norheim, Ole F; Norman, Rosana E; Norrving, Bo; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Oh, In-Hwan; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Olusanya, Bolajoko O; Omer, Saad B; Opio, John Nelson; Orozco, Ricardo; Pagcatipunan, Rodolfo S; Pain, Amanda W; Pandian, Jeyaraj D; Panelo, Carlo Irwin A; Papachristou, Christina; Park, Eun-Kee; Parry, Charles D; Caicedo, Angel J Paternina; Patten, Scott B; Paul, Vinod K; Pavlin, Boris I; Pearce, Neil; Pedraza, Lilia S; Pedroza, Andrea; Stokic, Ljiljana Pejin; Pekericli, Ayfer; Pereira, David M; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio; Perez-Ruiz, Fernando; Perico, Norberto; Perry, Samuel A L; Pervaiz, Aslam; Pesudovs, Konrad; Peterson, Carrie B; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael R; Phua, Hwee Pin; Plass, Dietrich; Poenaru, Dan; Polanczyk, Guilherme V; Polinder, Suzanne; Pond, Constance D; Pope, C Arden; Pope, Daniel; Popova, Svetlana; Pourmalek, Farshad; Powles, John; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Prasad, Noela M; Qato, Dima M; Quezada, Amado D; Quistberg, D Alex A; Racapé, Lionel; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi, Kazem; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Raju, Murugesan; Rakovac, Ivo; Rana, Saleem M; Rao, Mayuree; Razavi, Homie; Reddy, K Srinath; Refaat, Amany H; Rehm, Jürgen; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Ribeiro, Antonio L; Riccio, Patricia M; Richardson, Lee; Riederer, Anne; Robinson, Margaret; Roca, Anna; Rodriguez, Alina; Rojas-Rueda, David; Romieu, Isabelle; Ronfani, Luca; Room, Robin; Roy, Nobhojit; Ruhago, George M; Rushton, Lesley; Sabin, Nsanzimana; Sacco, Ralph L; Saha, Sukanta; Sahathevan, Ramesh; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali; Salomon, Joshua A; Salvo, Deborah; Sampson, Uchechukwu K; Sanabria, Juan R; Sanchez, Luz Maria; Sánchez-Pimienta, Tania G; Sanchez-Riera, Lidia; Sandar, Logan; Santos, Itamar S; Sapkota, Amir; Satpathy, Maheswar; Saunders, James E; Sawhney, Monika; Saylan, Mete I; Scarborough, Peter; Schmidt, Jürgen C; Schneider, Ione J C; Schöttker, Ben; Schwebel, David C; Scott, James G; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Serdar, Berrin; Servan-Mori, Edson E; Shaddick, Gavin; Shahraz, Saeid; Levy, Teresa Shamah; Shangguan, Siyi; She, Jun; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Hwashin H; Shinohara, Yukito; Shiri, Rahman; Shishani, Kawkab; Shiue, Ivy; Sigfusdottir, Inga D; Silberberg, Donald H; Simard, Edgar P; Sindi, Shireen; Singh, Abhishek; Singh, Gitanjali M; Singh, Jasvinder A; Skirbekk, Vegard; Sliwa, Karen; Soljak, Michael; Soneji, Samir; Søreide, Kjetil; Soshnikov, Sergey; Sposato, Luciano A; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T; Stapelberg, Nicolas J C; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki; Steckling, Nadine; Stein, Dan J; Stein, Murray B; Stephens, Natalie; Stöckl, Heidi; Straif, Kurt; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Sturua, Lela; Sunguya, Bruno F; Swaminathan, Soumya; Swaroop, Mamta; Sykes, Bryan L; Tabb, Karen M; Takahashi, Ken; Talongwa, Roberto T; Tandon, Nikhil; Tanne, David; Tanner, Marcel; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Te Ao, Braden J; Teixeira, Carolina M; Téllez Rojo, Martha M; Terkawi, Abdullah S; Texcalac-Sangrador, José Luis; Thackway, Sarah V; Thomson, Blake; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L; Thrift, Amanda G; Thurston, George D; Tillmann, Taavi; Tobollik, Myriam; Tonelli, Marcello; Topouzis, Fotis; Towbin, Jeffrey A; Toyoshima, Hideaki; Traebert, Jefferson; Tran, Bach X; Trasande, Leonardo; Trillini, Matias; Trujillo, Ulises; Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala; Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis; Tuzcu, Emin Murat; Uchendu, Uche S; Ukwaja, Kingsley N; Uzun, Selen B; van de Vijver, Steven; Van Dingenen, Rita; van Gool, Coen H; van Os, Jim; Varakin, Yuri Y; Vasankari, Tommi J; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria N; Vavilala, Monica S; Veerman, Lennert J; Velasquez-Melendez, Gustavo; Venketasubramanian, N; Vijayakumar, Lakshmi; Villalpando, Salvador; Violante, Francesco S; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Wagner, Gregory R; Waller, Stephen G; Wallin, Mitchell T; Wan, Xia; Wang, Haidong; Wang, JianLi; Wang, Linhong; Wang, Wenzhi; Wang, Yanping; Warouw, Tati S; Watts, Charlotte H; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G; Werdecker, Andrea; Wessells, K Ryan; Westerman, Ronny; Whiteford, Harvey A; Wilkinson, James D; Williams, Hywel C; Williams, Thomas N; Woldeyohannes, Solomon M; Wolfe, Charles D A; Wong, John Q; Woolf, Anthony D; Wright, Jonathan L; Wurtz, Brittany; Xu, Gelin; Yan, Lijing L; Yang, Gonghuan; Yano, Yuichiro; Ye, Pengpeng; Yenesew, Muluken; Yentür, Gökalp K; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Younis, Mustafa Z; Younoussi, Zourkaleini; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaki, Maysaa E; Zhao, Yong; Zheng, Yingfeng; Zhou, Maigeng; Zhu, Jun; Zhu, Shankuan; Zou, Xiaonong; Zunt, Joseph R; Lopez, Alan D; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for

  3. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

    Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.; Alexander, Lily; Anderson, H. Ross; Bachman, Victoria F.; Biryukov, Stan; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Casey, Daniel; Coates, Matthew M.; Cohen, Aaron; Delwiche, Kristen; Estep, Kara; Frostad, Joseph J.; Astha, K. C.; Kyu, Hmwe H.; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Ng, Marie; Slepak, Erica Leigh; Thomas, Bernadette A.; Wagner, Joseph; Aasvang, Gunn Marit; Abbafati, Cristiana; Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abera, Semaw F.; Aboyans, Victor; Abraham, Biju; Abraham, Jerry Puthenpurakal; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E.; Aburto, Tania C.; Achoki, Tom; Adelekan, Ademola; Adofo, Koranteng; Adou, Arsene K.; Adsuar, Jose C.; Afshin, Ashkan; Agardh, Emilie E.; Al Khabouri, Mazin J.; Al Lami, Faris H.; Alam, Sayed Saidul; Alasfoor, Deena; Albittar, Mohammed I.; Alegretti, Miguel A.; Aleman, Alicia V.; Alemu, Zewdie A.; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Hoek, Hans W.; Liu, Yang

    2015-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for

  4. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

    Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.; Alexander, Lily; Anderson, H. Ross; Bachman, Victoria F.; Biryukov, Stan; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Casey, Daniel; Coates, Matthew M.; Cohen, Aaron; Delwiche, Kristen; Estep, Kara; Frostad, Joseph J.; Astha, K. C.; Kyu, Hmwe H.; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Ng, Marie; Slepak, Erica Leigh; Thomas, Bernadette A.; Wagner, Joseph; Aasvang, Gunn Marit; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Ayse; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abera, Semaw F.; Aboyans, Victor; Abraham, Biju; Abraham, Jerry Puthenpurakal; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E.; Aburto, Tania C.; Achoki, Tom; Adelekan, Ademola; Adofo, Koranteng; Adou, Arsène K.; Adsuar, José C.; Afshin, Ashkan; Agardh, Emilie E.; Al Khabouri, Mazin J.; Al Lami, Faris H.; Alam, Sayed Saidul; Alasfoor, Deena; Albittar, Mohammed I.; Alegretti, Miguel A.; Aleman, Alicia V.; Alemu, Zewdie A.; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Alhabib, Samia; Ali, Raghib; Ali, Mohammed K.; Alla, François; Allebeck, Peter; Allen, Peter J.; Alsharif, Ubai; Alvarez, Elena; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amankwaa, Adansi A.; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Ameh, Emmanuel A.; Ameli, Omid; Amini, Heresh; Ammar, Walid; Anderson, Benjamin O.; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.; Anwari, Palwasha; Argeseanu Cunningham, Solveig; Arnlöv, Johan; Arsenijevic, Valentina S. Arsic; Artaman, Al; Asghar, Rana J.; Assadi, Reza; Atkins, Lydia S.; Atkinson, Charles; Avila, Marco A.; Awuah, Baffour; Badawi, Alaa; Bahit, Maria C.; Bakfalouni, Talal; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Balalla, Shivanthi; Balu, Ravi Kumar; Banerjee, Amitava; Barber, Ryan M.; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L.; Barquera, Simon; Barregard, Lars; Barrero, Lope H.; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Basto-Abreu, Ana C.; Basu, Arindam; Basu, Sanjay; Basulaiman, Mohammed O.; Batis Ruvalcaba, Carolina; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Bekele, Tolesa; Bell, Michelle L.; Benjet, Corina; Bennett, Derrick A.; Benzian, Habib; Bernabé, Eduardo; Beyene, Tariku J.; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhalla, Ashish; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.; Bikbov, Boris; Bin Abdulhak, Aref A.; Blore, Jed D.; Blyth, Fiona M.; Bohensky, Megan A.; Bora Başara, Berrak; Borges, Guilherme; Bornstein, Natan M.; Bose, Dipan; Boufous, Soufiane; Bourne, Rupert R.; Brainin, Michael; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas J.; Brenner, Hermann; Briggs, Adam D. M.; Broday, David M.; Brooks, Peter M.; Bruce, Nigel G.; Brugha, Traolach S.; Brunekreef, Bert; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Bui, Linh N.; Bukhman, Gene; Bulloch, Andrew G.; Burch, Michael; Burney, Peter G. J.; Campos-Nonato, Ismael R.; Campuzano, Julio C.; Cantoral, Alejandra J.; Caravanos, Jack; Cárdenas, Rosario; Cardis, Elisabeth; Carpenter, David O.; Caso, Valeria; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A.; Castro, Ruben E.; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Cavalleri, Fiorella; Çavlin, Alanur; Chadha, Vineet K.; Chang, Jung-Chen; Charlson, Fiona J.; Chen, Honglei; Chen, Wanqing; Chen, Zhengming; Chiang, Peggy P.; Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christophi, Costas A.; Chuang, Ting-Wu; Chugh, Sumeet S.; Cirillo, Massimo; Claßen, Thomas K. D.; Colistro, Valentina; Colomar, Mercedes; Colquhoun, Samantha M.; Contreras, Alejandra G.; Cooper, Cyrus; Cooperrider, Kimberly; Cooper, Leslie T.; Coresh, Josef; Courville, Karen J.; Criqui, Michael H.; Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia; Damsere-Derry, James; Danawi, Hadi; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Dargan, Paul I.; Davis, Adrian; Davitoiu, Dragos V.; Dayama, Anand; de Castro, E. Filipa; de la Cruz-Góngora, Vanessa; de Leo, Diego; de Lima, Graça; Degenhardt, Louisa; del Pozo-Cruz, Borja; Dellavalle, Robert P.; Deribe, Kebede; Derrett, Sarah; des Jarlais, Don C.; Dessalegn, Muluken; deVeber, Gabrielle A.; Devries, Karen M.; Dharmaratne, Samath D.; Dherani, Mukesh K.; Dicker, Daniel; Ding, Eric L.; Dokova, Klara; Dorsey, E. 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Rifat; Kosen, Soewarta; Kraemer, Alexander; Kravchenko, Michael; Krishnaswami, Sanjay; Kromhout, Hans; Ku, Tiffany; Kuate Defo, Barthelemy; Kucuk Bicer, Burcu; Kuipers, Ernst J.; Kulkarni, Chanda; Kulkarni, Veena S.; Kumar, G. Anil; Kwan, Gene F.; Lai, Taavi; Lakshmana Balaji, Arjun; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lallukka, Tea; Lam, Hilton; Lan, Qing; Lansingh, Van C.; Larson, Heidi J.; Larsson, Anders; Laryea, Dennis O.; Lavados, Pablo M.; Lawrynowicz, Alicia E.; Leasher, Janet L.; Lee, Jong-Tae; Leigh, James; Leung, Ricky; Levi, Miriam; Li, Yichong; Li, Yongmei; Liang, Juan; Liang, Xiaofeng; Lim, Stephen S.; Lindsay, M. Patrice; Lipshultz, Steven E.; Liu, Shiwei; Liu, Yang; Lloyd, Belinda K.; Logroscino, Giancarlo; London, Stephanie J.; Lopez, Nancy; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Lotufo, Paulo A.; Lozano, Rafael; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Ma, Jixiang; Ma, Stefan; Machado, Vasco M. P.; MacIntyre, Michael F.; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Mahdi, Abbas A.; Majdan, Marek; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mangalam, Srikanth; Mapoma, Christopher C.; Marape, Marape; Marcenes, Wagner; Margolis, David J.; Margono, Christopher; Marks, Guy B.; Martin, Randall V.; Marzan, Melvin B.; Mashal, Mohammad T.; Masiye, Felix; Mason-Jones, Amanda J.; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Matzopoulos, Richard; Mayosi, Bongani M.; Mazorodze, Tasara T.; McKay, Abigail C.; McKee, Martin; McLain, Abigail; Meaney, Peter A.; Medina, Catalina; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola; Mekonnen, Wubegzier; Melaku, Yohannes A.; Meltzer, Michele; Memish, Ziad A.; Mendoza, Walter; Mensah, George A.; Meretoja, Atte; Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary; Micha, Renata; Miller, Ted R.; Mills, Edward J.; Misganaw, Awoke; Mishra, Santosh; Mohamed Ibrahim, Norlinah; Mohammad, Karzan A.; Mokdad, Ali H.; Mola, Glen L.; Monasta, Lorenzo; Montañez Hernandez, Julio C.; Montico, Marcella; Moore, Ami R.; Morawska, Lidia; Mori, Rintaro; Moschandreas, Joanna; Moturi, Wilkister N.; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Mueller, Ulrich O.; Mukaigawara, Mitsuru; Mullany, Erin C.; Murthy, Kinnari S.; Naghavi, Mohsen; Nahas, Ziad; Naheed, Aliya; Naidoo, Kovin S.; Naldi, Luigi; Nand, Devina; Nangia, Vinay; Narayan, K. M. Venkat; Nash, Denis; Neal, Bruce; Nejjari, Chakib; Neupane, Sudan P.; Newton, Charles R.; Ngalesoni, Frida N.; Ngirabega, Jean de Dieu; Nguyen, Grant; Nguyen, Nhung T.; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J.; Nisar, Muhammad I.; Nogueira, José R.; Nolla, Joan M.; Nolte, Sandra; Norheim, Ole F.; Norman, Rosana E.; Norrving, Bo; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Oh, In-Hwan; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Olusanya, Bolajoko O.; Omer, Saad B.; Opio, John Nelson; Orozco, Ricardo; Pagcatipunan, Rodolfo S.; Pain, Amanda W.; Pandian, Jeyaraj D.; Panelo, Carlo Irwin A.; Papachristou, Christina; Park, Eun-Kee; Parry, Charles D.; Paternina Caicedo, Angel J.; Patten, Scott B.; Paul, Vinod K.; Pavlin, Boris I.; Pearce, Neil; Pedraza, Lilia S.; Pedroza, Andrea; Pejin Stokic, Ljiljana; Pekericli, Ayfer; Pereira, David M.; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio; Perez-Ruiz, Fernando; Perico, Norberto; Perry, Samuel A. L.; Pervaiz, Aslam; Pesudovs, Konrad; Peterson, Carrie B.; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael R.; Phua, Hwee Pin; Plass, Dietrich; Poenaru, Dan; Polanczyk, Guilherme V.; Polinder, Suzanne; Pond, Constance D.; Pope, C. Arden; Pope, Daniel; Popova, Svetlana; Pourmalek, Farshad; Powles, John; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Prasad, Noela M.; Qato, Dima M.; Quezada, Amado D.; Quistberg, D. Alex A.; Racapé, Lionel; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi, Kazem; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Raju, Murugesan; Rakovac, Ivo; Rana, Saleem M.; Rao, Mayuree; Razavi, Homie; Reddy, K. Srinath; Refaat, Amany H.; Rehm, Jürgen; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Ribeiro, Antonio L.; Riccio, Patricia M.; Richardson, Lee; Riederer, Anne; Robinson, Margaret; Roca, Anna; Rodriguez, Alina; Rojas-Rueda, David; Romieu, Isabelle; Ronfani, Luca; Room, Robin; Roy, Nobhojit; Ruhago, George M.; Rushton, Lesley; Sabin, Nsanzimana; Sacco, Ralph L.; Saha, Sukanta; Sahathevan, Ramesh; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali; Salomon, Joshua A.; Salvo, Deborah; Sampson, Uchechukwu K.; Sanabria, Juan R.; Sanchez, Luz Maria; Sánchez-Pimienta, Tania G.; Sanchez-Riera, Lidia; Sandar, Logan; Santos, Itamar S.; Sapkota, Amir; Satpathy, Maheswar; Saunders, James E.; Sawhney, Monika; Saylan, Mete I.; Scarborough, Peter; Schmidt, Jürgen C.; Schneider, Ione J. C.; Schöttker, Ben; Schwebel, David C.; Scott, James G.; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G.; Serdar, Berrin; Servan-Mori, Edson E.; Shaddick, Gavin; Shahraz, Saeid; Levy, Teresa Shamah; Shangguan, Siyi; She, Jun; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Hwashin H.; Shinohara, Yukito; Shiri, Rahman; Shishani, Kawkab; Shiue, Ivy; Sigfusdottir, Inga D.; Silberberg, Donald H.; Simard, Edgar P.; Sindi, Shireen; Singh, Abhishek; Singh, Gitanjali M.; Singh, Jasvinder A.; Skirbekk, Vegard; Sliwa, Karen; Soljak, Michael; Soneji, Samir; Søreide, Kjetil; Soshnikov, Sergey; Sposato, Luciano A.; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T.; Stapelberg, Nicolas J. C.; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki; Steckling, Nadine; Stein, Dan J.; Stein, Murray B.; Stephens, Natalie; Stöckl, Heidi; Straif, Kurt; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Sturua, Lela; Sunguya, Bruno F.; Swaminathan, Soumya; Swaroop, Mamta; Sykes, Bryan L.; Tabb, Karen M.; Takahashi, Ken; Talongwa, Roberto T.; Tandon, Nikhil; Tanne, David; Tanner, Marcel; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; te Ao, Braden J.; Teixeira, Carolina M.; Téllez Rojo, Martha M.; Terkawi, Abdullah S.; Texcalac-Sangrador, José Luis; Thackway, Sarah V.; Thomson, Blake; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L.; Thrift, Amanda G.; Thurston, George D.; Tillmann, Taavi; Tobollik, Myriam; Tonelli, Marcello; Topouzis, Fotis; Towbin, Jeffrey A.; Toyoshima, Hideaki; Traebert, Jefferson; Tran, Bach X.; Trasande, Leonardo; Trillini, Matias; Trujillo, Ulises; Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala; Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis; Tuzcu, Emin Murat; Uchendu, Uche S.; Ukwaja, Kingsley N.; Uzun, Selen B.; van de Vijver, Steven; van Dingenen, Rita; van Gool, Coen H.; van Os, Jim; Varakin, Yuri Y.; Vasankari, Tommi J.; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria N.; Vavilala, Monica S.; Veerman, Lennert J.; Velasquez-Melendez, Gustavo; Venketasubramanian, N.; Vijayakumar, Lakshmi; Villalpando, Salvador; Violante, Francesco S.; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Wagner, Gregory R.; Waller, Stephen G.; Wallin, Mitchell T.; Wan, Xia; Wang, Haidong; Wang, JianLi; Wang, Linhong; Wang, Wenzhi; Wang, Yanping; Warouw, Tati S.; Watts, Charlotte H.; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G.; Werdecker, Andrea; Wessells, K. Ryan; Westerman, Ronny; Whiteford, Harvey A.; Wilkinson, James D.; Williams, Hywel C.; Williams, Thomas N.; Woldeyohannes, Solomon M.; Wolfe, Charles D. A.; Wong, John Q.; Woolf, Anthony D.; Wright, Jonathan L.; Wurtz, Brittany; Xu, Gelin; Yan, Lijing L.; Yang, Gonghuan; Yano, Yuichiro; Ye, Pengpeng; Yenesew, Muluken; Yentür, Gökalp K.; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Younis, Mustafa Z.; Younoussi, Zourkaleini; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaki, Maysaa E.; Zhao, Yong; Zheng, Yingfeng; Zhou, Maigeng; Zhu, Jun; Zhu, Shankuan; Zou, Xiaonong; Zunt, Joseph R.; Lopez, Alan D.; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J.

    2015-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for

  5. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

    Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbas, Kaja M.; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abdulle, Abdishakur M.; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Aboyans, Victor; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E; Abyu, Gebre Yitayih; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi; Adetokunboh, Olatunji; Afarideh, Mohsen; Afshin, Ashkan; Agrawal, Anurag; Agrawal, Sutapa; Ahmadieh, Hamid; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine; Aichour, Amani Nidhal; Aichour, Ibtihel; Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola; Akseer, Nadia; Alahdab, Fares; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Noore; Alam, Tahiya; Alasfoor, Deena; Alene, Kefyalew Addis; Ali, Komal; Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza; Alkerwi, Ala'a; Alla, François; Allebeck, Peter; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa; Alsharif, Ubai; Altirkawi, Khalid A.; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amare, Azmeraw T; Amini, Erfan; Ammar, Walid; Amoako, Yaw Ampem; Ansari, Hossein; Antó, Josep M.; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Anwari, Palwasha; Arian, Nicholas; Ärnlöv, Johan; Artaman, Al; Aryal, Krishna Kumar; Asayesh, Hamid; Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal; Atey, Tesfay Mehari; Avila-Burgos, Leticia; Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G.Arthur; Awasthi, Ashish; Azzopardi, Peter; Bacha, Umar; Badawi, Alaa; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Ballew, Shoshana H.; Barac, Aleksandra; Barber, Ryan M; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L; Bärnighausen, Till; Barquera, Simon; Barregard, Lars; Barrero, Lope H; Batis, Carolina; Battle, Katherine E.; Baumgarner, Blair R.; Baune, Bernhard T.; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Beghi, Ettore; Bell, Michelle L; Bennett, Derrick A; Bennett, James R.; Bensenor, Isabela M.; Berhane, Adugnaw; Berhe, Derbew Fikadu; Bernabé, Eduardo; Betsu, Balem Demtsu; Beuran, Mircea; Beyene, Addisu Shunu; Bhansali, Anil; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Bicer, Burcu Kucuk; Bikbov, Boris; Birungi, Charles; Biryukov, Stan; Blosser, Christopher D.; Boneya, Dube Jara; Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R.; Brauer, Michael; Breitborde, Nicholas J.K.; Brenner, Hermann; Brugha, Traolach S; Bulto, Lemma Negesa Bulto; Butt, Zahid A.; Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero; Cárdenas, Rosario; Carrero, Juan Jesus; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Cercy, Kelly; Chang, Hsing Yi; Charlson, Fiona J; Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel; Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe; Chitheer, Abdulaal A.; Christensen, Hanne; Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas; Cirillo, Massimo; Cohen, Aaron J; Comfort, Haley; Cooper, Cyrus; Coresh, Josef; Cornaby, Leslie; Cortesi, Paolo Angelo; Criqui, Michael H; Crump, John A; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; das Neves, José; Davey, Gail; Davitoiu, Dragos V; Davletov, Kairat; de Courten, Barbora; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate; Degenhardt, Louisa; Deiparine, Selina; Dellavalle, Robert P; Deribe, Kebede; Deshpande, Aniruddha; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Ding, Eric L; Djalalinia, Shirin; Do, Huyen Phuc; Dokova, Klara; Doku, David Teye; Donkelaar, Aaron van; Dorsey, E Ray; Driscoll, Tim R; Dubey, Manisha; Duncan, Bruce Bartholow; Duncan, Sarah; Ebrahimi, Hedyeh; El-Khatib, Ziad Ziad; Enayati, Ahmadali; Endries, Aman Yesuf; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich; Erskine, Holly E; Eshrati, Babak; Eskandarieh, Sharareh; Esteghamati, Alireza; Estep, Kara; Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino; Farinha, Carla Sofia e.Sa; Faro, André; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fay, Kairsten; Feigin, Valery L; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Fernandes, João C.; Ferrari, Alize J; Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa; Filip, Irina; Fischer, Florian; Fitzmaurice, Christina; Flaxman, Abraham D; Foigt, Nataliya; Foreman, Kyle J; Frostad, Joseph J; Fullman, Nancy; Fürst, Thomas; Furtado, Joao M.; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Ganji, Morsaleh; Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L.; Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde; Geleijnse, Johanna M.; Geleto, Ayele; Gemechu, Bikila Lencha; Gesesew, Hailay Abrha; Gething, Peter W.; Ghajar, Alireza; Gibney, Katherine B; Gill, Paramjit Singh; Gillum, Richard F; Giref, Ababi Zergaw; Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo; Giussani, Giorgia; Godwin, William W.; Gona, Philimon N.; Goodridge, Amador; Gopalani, Sameer Vali; Goryakin, Yevgeniy; Goulart, Alessandra Carvalho; Graetz, Nicholas; Gugnani, Harish Chander; Guo, Jingwen; Gupta, Rajeev; Gupta, Tanush; Gupta, Vipin; Gutiérrez, Reyna A; Hachinski, Vladimir; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi; Hamidi, Samer; Hammami, Mouhanad; Handal, Alexis J.; Hankey, Graeme J.; Hanson, Sarah Wulf; Harb, Hilda L; Hareri, Habtamu Abera; Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hawley, Caitlin; Hay, Simon I; Hedayati, Mohammad T; Hendrie, Delia; Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz; Hernandez, Julio Cesar Montañez; Hoek, Hans W; Horita, Nobuyuki; Hosgood, H. Dean; Hostiuc, Sorin; Hoy, Damian G; Hsairi, Mohamed; Hu, Guoqing; Huang, John J; Huang, Hsiang; Ibrahim, Norlinah Mohamed; Iburg, Kim Moesgaard; Ikeda, Chad; Inoue, Manami; Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter; Jackson, Maria Delores; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Jahanmehr, Nader; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B.; Jauregui, Alejandra; Javanbakht, Mehdi; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Johansson, Lars R.K.; Johnson, Catherine O.; Jonas, Jost B; Jürisson, Mikk; Kabir, Zubair; Kadel, Rajendra; Kahsay, Amaha; Kamal, Ritul; Karch, André; Karema, Corine Kakizi; Kasaeian, Amir; Kassebaum, Nicholas J.; Kastor, Anshul; Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal; Kawakami, Norito; Keiyoro, Peter Njenga; Kelbore, Sefonias Getachew; Kemmer, Laura; Kengne, Andre Pascal; Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khalil, Ibrahim A.; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Khang, Young-Ho; Khosravi, Ardeshir; Khubchandani, Jagdish; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad; Kieling, Christian; Kim, Jun Y.; Kim, Yun Jin; Kim, Daniel; Kimokoti, Ruth W; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kisa, Adnan; Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna A.; Kivimaki, Mika; Knibbs, Luke D; Knudsen, Ann Kristin; Kopec, Jacek A.; Kosen, Soewarta; Koul, Parvaiz A.; Koyanagi, Ai; Kravchenko, Michael; Krohn, Kristopher J.; Kromhout, Hans|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/074385224; Kumar, G Anil; Kutz, Michael; Kyu, Hmwe H; Lal, Dharmesh Kumar; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lallukka, Tea; Lan, Qing; Lansingh, Van C; Larsson, Anders; Lee, Paul H.; Lee, Alexander; Leigh, James; Leung, Janni; Levi, Miriam; Levy, Teresa Shamah; Li, Yichong; Li, Yongmei; Liang, Xiaofeng; Liben, Misgan Legesse; Lim, Stephen S; Linn, Shai; Liu, Patrick; Lodha, Rakesh; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Looker, Katherine J.; Lopez, Alan D; Lorkowski, Stefan; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lozano, Rafael; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King; Magdy Abd El Razek, Hassan; Magdy Abd El Razek, Mohammed; Majdan, Marek; Majdzadeh, Reza; Majeed, Azeem; Malekzadeh, Reza; Malhotra, Rajesh; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Mamun, Abdullah A.; Manguerra, Helena; Mantovani, Lorenzo G.; Mapoma, Chabila C.; Martin, Randall V; Martinez-Raga, Jose; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Mathur, Manu Raj; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Matzopoulos, Richard; Mazidi, Mohsen; McAlinden, Colm; McGrath, John W; Mehata, Suresh; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Meier, Toni; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Memiah, Peter; Memish, Ziad A.; Mendoza, Walter; Mengesha, Melkamu Merid; Mensah, George A; Mensink, Gert B.M.; Mereta, Seid Tiku; Meretoja, Tuomo J.; Meretoja, Atte; Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane; Micha, Renata; Millear, Anoushka; Miller, Ted R; Minnig, Shawn; Mirarefin, Mojde; Mirrakhimov, Erkin M.; Misganaw, Awoke; Mishra, Shiva Raj; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin; Mohammed, Kedir Endris; Mohammed, Shafiu; Mohan, Murali B.V.; Mokdad, Ali H; Monasta, Lorenzo; Montico, Marcella; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Moraga, Paula; Morawska, Lidia; Morrison, Shane D.; Mountjoy-Venning, Cliff; Mueller, Ulrich O; Mullany, Erin C; Muller, Kate; Murray, Christopher J L; Murthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana; Musa, Kamarul Imran; Naghavi, Mohsen; Naheed, Aliya; Nangia, Vinay; Natarajan, Gopalakrishnan; Negoi, Ruxandra Irina; Negoi, Ionut; Nguyen, Cuong Tat; Nguyen, Quyen Le; Nguyen, Trang Huyen; Nguyen, Grant; Nguyen, Minh Hao; Nichols, Emma; Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini; Nomura, Marika; Nong, Vuong Minh; Norheim, Ole F; Norrving, Bo; Noubiap, Jean Jacques N.; Obermeyer, Carla Makhlouf; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene; Oh, In-Hwan; Oladimeji, Olanrewaju; Olagunju, Andrew Toyin; Olagunju, Tinuke Oluwasefunmi; Olivares, Pedro R.; Olsen, Helen E.; Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola; Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun; Opio, John Nelson; Oren, Eyal; Ortiz, Alberto; Ota, Erika; Owolabi, Mayowa O.; PA, Mahesh; Pacella, Rosana E.; Pana, Adrian; Panda, Basant Kumar; Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra; Pandian, Jeyaraj D; Papachristou, Christina; Park, Eun-Kee; Parry, Charles D; Patten, Scott B; Patton, George C.; Pereira, David M; Perico, Norberto; Pesudovs, Konrad; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael Robert; Pillay, Julian David; Piradov, Michael A.; Pishgar, Farhad; Plass, Dietrich; Pletcher, Martin A.; Polinder, Suzanne; Popova, Svetlana; Poulton, Richie G.; Pourmalek, Farshad; Prasad, Narayan; Purcell, Carrie; Qorbani, Mostafa; Radfar, Amir; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur; Rahman, Muhammad Aziz; Rahman, Mahfuzar; Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Rajsic, Sasa; Ram, Usha; Rawaf, Salman; Rehm, Colin D.; Rehm, Jürgen; Reiner, Robert C.; Reitsma, Marissa B.; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Renzaho, Andre M.N.; Resnikoff, Serge; Reynales-Shigematsu, Luz Myriam; Rezaei, Satar; Ribeiro, Antonio L; Rivera, Juan A.; Roba, Kedir Teji; Rojas-Rueda, David; Roman, Yesenia; Room, Robin; Roshandel, Gholamreza; Roth, Gregory A.; Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Rubagotti, Enrico; Rushton, Lesley; Sadat, Nafis; Safdarian, Mahdi; Safi, Sare; Safiri, Saeid; Sahathevan, Ramesh; Salama, Joseph; Salomon, Joshua A; Samy, Abdallah M.; Sanabria, Juan Ramon; Sanchez-Niño, Maria Dolores; Sánchez-Pimienta, Tania G; Santomauro, Damian; Santos, Itamar S; Santric Milicevic, Milena M.; Sartorius, Benn; Satpathy, Maheswar; Sawhney, Monika; Saxena, Sonia; Schmidt, Maria Inês; Schneider, Ione J C; Schutte, Aletta E.; Schwebel, David C; Schwendicke, Falk; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Serdar, Berrin; Servan-Mori, Edson E; Shaddick, Gavin; Shaheen, Amira; Shahraz, Saeid; Shaikh, Masood Ali; Shamsipour, Mansour; Shamsizadeh, Morteza; Shariful Islam, Sheikh Mohammed; Sharma, Jayendra; Sharma, Rajesh; She, Jun; Shen, Jiabin; Shi, Peilin; Shibuya, Kenji; Shields, Chloe; Shiferaw, Mekonnen Sisay; Shigematsu, Mika; Shin, Min Jeong; Shiri, Rahman; Shirkoohi, Reza; Shishani, Kawkab; Shoman, Haitham; Shrime, Mark G.; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora; Silva, Diego Augusto Santos; Silva, João Pedro; Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves; Singh, Jasvinder A; Singh, Virendra; Sinha, Dhirendra Narain; Skiadaresi, Eirini; Slepak, Erica Leigh; Smith, David L.; Smith, Mari; Sobaih, Badr H.A.; Sobngwi, Eugene; Soneji, Samir; Sorensen, Reed J.D.; Sposato, Luciano A; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T; Srinivasan, Vinay; Steel, Nicholas; Stein, Dan J.; Steiner, Caitlyn; Steinke, Sabine; Stokes, Mark Andrew; Strub, Bryan; Subart, Michelle; Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale; Suliankatchi, Rizwan Abdulkader; Sur, Patrick J.; Swaminathan, Soumya; Sykes, Bryan L; Szoeke, Cassandra E.I.; Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael; Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar; Takahashi, Ken; Takala, Jukka S.; Tandon, Nikhil; Tanner, Marcel; Tarekegn, Yihunie L.; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Tegegne, Teketo Kassaw; Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash; Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman; Tesssema, Belay; Thakur, J. S.; Thamsuwan, Ornwipa; Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman; Theis, Andrew M.; Thomas, Matthew Lloyd; Thomson, Alan J.; Thrift, Amanda G; Tillmann, Taavi; Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan; Tobollik, Myriam; Tollanes, Mette C.; Tonelli, Marcello; Topor-Madry, Roman; Torre, Anna; Tortajada, Miguel; Touvier, Mathilde; Tran, Bach Xuan; Truelsen, Thomas; Tuem, Kald Beshir; Tuzcu, Emin Murat; Tyrovolas, Stefanos; Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna; Uneke, Chigozie Jesse; Updike, Rachel; Uthman, Olalekan A.; van Boven, Job F.M.; Varughese, Santosh; Vasankari, Tommi J; Veerman, Lennert J; Venkateswaran, Vidhya; Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy; Violante, Francesco S; Vladimirov, Sergey K.; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Vos, Theo; Wadilo, Fiseha; Wakayo, Tolassa; Wallin, Mitchell T; Wang, Yuan Pang; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G; Weiss, Daniel J.; Werdecker, Andrea; Westerman, Ronny; Whiteford, Harvey A; Wiysonge, Charles Shey; Woldeyes, Belete Getahun; Wolfe, Charles D A; Woodbrook, Rachel; Workicho, Abdulhalik; Xavier, Denis; Xu, Gelin; Yadgir, Simon; Yakob, Bereket; Yan, Lijing L; Yaseri, Mehdi; Yimam, Hassen Hamid; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Yotebieng, Marcel; Younis, Mustafa Z; Zaidi, Zoubida; Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed; Zavala-Arciniega, Luis; Zhang, Xueying; Zimsen, Stephanie Raman M.; Zipkin, Ben; Zodpey, Sanjay

    2017-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health

  6. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

    Gakidou, Emmanuela; Geleijnse, J.M.

    2017-01-01

    Background
    The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to

  7. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

    Gakidou, Emmanuela; Afshin, Ashkan; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbas, Kaja M.; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abdulle, Abdishakur M.; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Aboyans, Victor; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E.; Abyu, Gebre Yitayih; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi; Adetokunboh, Olatunji; Afarideh, Mohsen; Agrawal, Anurag; Agrawal, Sutapa; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad; Ahmadieh, Hamid; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Aichour, Amani Nidhal; Aichour, Ibtihel; Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine; Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola; Akseer, Nadia; Alahdab, Fares; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Noore; Alam, Tahiya; Alasfoor, Deena; Alene, Kefyalew Addis; Ali, Komal; Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza; Alkerwi, Ala'a; Alla, Francois; Allebeck, Peter; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa; Alsharif, Ubai; Altirkawi, Khalid A.; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Amini, Erfan; Ammar, Walid; Amoako, Yaw Ampem; Ansari, Hossein; Berhe, Derbew Fikadu; Hoek, Hans W.; van Boven, Job F. M.

    2017-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health

  8. Modulators of mercury risk to wildlife and humans in the context of rapid global change

    Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Silbergeld, Ellen K.; Basu, Niladri; Bustamante, Paco; Diaz-Barriga, Fernando; Hopkins, William A.; Kidd, Karen A.; Nyland, Jennifer F.

    2018-01-01

    Environmental mercury (Hg) contamination is an urgent global health threat. The complexity of Hg in the environment can hinder accurate determination of ecological and human health risks, particularly within the context of the rapid global changes that are altering many ecological processes, socioeconomic patterns, and other factors like infectious disease incidence, which can affect Hg exposures and health outcomes. However, the success of global Hg-reduction efforts depends on accurate assessments of their effectiveness in reducing health risks. In this paper, we examine the role that key extrinsic and intrinsic drivers play on several aspects of Hg risk to humans and organisms in the environment. We do so within three key domains of ecological and human health risk. First, we examine how extrinsic global change drivers influence pathways of Hg bioaccumulation and biomagnification through food webs. Next, we describe how extrinsic socioeconomic drivers at a global scale, and intrinsic individual-level drivers, influence human Hg exposure. Finally, we address how the adverse health effects of Hg in humans and wildlife are modulated by a range of extrinsic and intrinsic drivers within the context of rapid global change. Incorporating components of these three domains into research and monitoring will facilitate a more holistic understanding of how ecological and societal drivers interact to influence Hg health risks.

  9. Global Risks as Factors that Affect the Current system of international Relations

    Irina A. Zaitseva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The problem of the globalization of risks is examined in this article. Based on the World Economic Forum (WEF report on global risks 2015-2017, the impact of global risks on the social and economic development of countries is examined. Economic, social, environmental, geopolitical, technological risks are analyzed in a coordinated fashion. The article notes that the main risks are in the field of environment and ecology. Anthropogenic pressure amplification, scientific and technological advance have an influence on the natural environment. The risks of infrastructure and environmental damage in danger zone are increased because of the growth of the frequency of extreme weather events. The measures for the protection of the environment are examined. The unilateral approach to solving international issues, instead of the collective efforts of the international community; the deployment of weapons of mass destruction (nuclear, chemical, biological and technologies for the production of radioactive materials; escalation of economic and resource nationalization (the desire of States to expropriate or restrict the export of important for the world economy of resources, etc. promote the increasing geopolitical risks.Economic risks include the risk in terms of their likelihood their impact on the macroeconomic, as from the financial systems and infrastructure to price volatility and regulatory issues. Social risks are the risks relating to instability of population dynamics, social crises and human survival.Technological risks include such problems as software defects, failure of important information systems, upon which today industrial production is depended, the services and communications sector; the escalation of large-scale cyber-attacks; theft of electronic information and the illegal usage of personal data. The trends that can intensify the global risks or to change the correlation between them are analyzed in this article.

  10. Global distribution and drivers of language extinction risk

    Amano, Tatsuya; Sandel, Brody Steven; Eager, Heidi

    2014-01-01

    latitudes and are strongly linked to high economic growth. Threatened languages are numerous in the tropics, the Himalayas and northwestern North America. These results indicate that small-population languages remaining in economically developed regions are seriously threatened by continued speaker declines....... However, risks of future language losses are especially high in the tropics and in the Himalayas, as these regions harbour many small-population languages and are undergoing rapid economic growth....

  11. Chemical Risk Assessment Screening Tool of a Global Chemical Company

    Evelyn Tjoe-Nij; Christophe Rochin; Nathalie Berne; Alessandro Sassi; Antoine Leplay

    2018-01-01

    Background: This paper describes a simple-to-use and reliable screening tool called Critical Task Exposure Screening (CTES), developed by a chemical company. The tool assesses if the exposure to a chemical for a task is likely to be within acceptable levels. Methods: CTES is a Microsoft Excel tool, where the inhalation risk score is calculated by relating the exposure estimate to the corresponding occupational exposure limit (OEL) or occupational exposure band (OEB). The inhalation exposure i...

  12. Chemical Risk Assessment Screening Tool of a Global Chemical Company

    Evelyn Tjoe-Nij

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: This paper describes a simple-to-use and reliable screening tool called Critical Task Exposure Screening (CTES, developed by a chemical company. The tool assesses if the exposure to a chemical for a task is likely to be within acceptable levels. Methods: CTES is a Microsoft Excel tool, where the inhalation risk score is calculated by relating the exposure estimate to the corresponding occupational exposure limit (OEL or occupational exposure band (OEB. The inhalation exposure is estimated for tasks by preassigned ART1.5 activity classes and modifying factors. Results: CTES requires few inputs. The toxicological data, including OELs, OEBs, and vapor pressure are read from a database. Once the substance is selected, the user specifies its concentration and then chooses the task description and its duration. CTES has three outputs that may trigger follow-up: (1 inhalation risk score; (2 identification of the skin hazard with the skin warnings for local and systemic adverse effects; and (3 status for carcinogenic, mutagenic, or reprotoxic effects. Conclusion: The tool provides an effective way to rapidly screen low-concern tasks, and quickly identifies certain tasks involving substances that will need further review with, nevertheless, the appropriate conservatism. This tool shows that the higher-tier ART1.5 inhalation exposure assessment model can be included effectively in a screening tool. After 2 years of worldwide extensive use within the company, CTES is well perceived by the users, including the shop floor management, and it fulfills its target of screening tool. Keywords: occupational exposure, risk assessment, risk management

  13. Global Amphibian Extinction Risk Assessment for the Panzootic Chytrid Fungus

    Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Bielby, Jon; Schmidtlein, Sebastian; Bosch, Jaime; Garner, Trenton W. J.; Veith, Michael; Walker, Susan; Fisher, Matthew C.; Lötters, Stefan

    2009-01-01

    Species are being lost at increasing rates due to anthropogenic effects, leading to the recognition that we are witnessing the onset of a sixth mass extinction. Emerging infectious disease has been shown to increase species loss and any attempts to reduce extinction rates need to squarely confront this challenge. Here, we develop a procedure for identifying amphibian species that are most at risk from the effects of chytridiomycosis by combining spatial analyses of key host life-history varia...

  14. Melodie: A global risk assessment model for radioactive waste repositories

    Lewi, J.; Assouline, M.; Bareau, J.; Raimbault, P.

    1987-03-01

    The Institute of Protection and Nuclear Safety (IPSN), which is part of the French Atomic Energy Commission (C.E.A.) develops since 1984 in collaboration with different groups inside and outside the C.E.A. a computer model for risk assessment of nuclear waste repositories in deep geological formations. The main characteristics of the submodels, the data processing structure and some examples of applications are presented

  15. Cyber Terrorism demands a Global Risks and Threats Strategic Management

    Gareva, R.

    2007-01-01

    The world is in the third wave of development, which is digital managed and networked. Information, which creates the knowledge is transferring thorough the Internet by exponential function. The rapid advancement of the computer technology has a great influence over the development of the critical information infrastructure, thus changing the safety environment and the national values and interests. This advancement produces threats and risks from computer perspective which are sublimated in different forms of international terrorism and particularly in cyber terrorism. The main aim of this paper is based on a thorough analysis of what is scientifically known and practiced when nowadays critical information infrastructure is in the focus of the cyber terrorism. The rapid IT development demands changes in the strategic management focus. As a result of a time-consuming theoretical and empirical research this paper suggests a methodology for strategic managing of: threats, risks and vulnerabilities. The proposed methodology is seen as a mean to increase the human security conscious in every sense of the word, and to promote the need for rules, procedures and standards establishment from the aspect of the strategic management in the new information epoch concerning. In addition, through a scientific discourse, a short attempt is made to relate Macedonian reality with the phenomenon mentioned above. The most fundamental set phrase is that the efficiency and promptly made decisions during strategic planning are a projection of the systematic organization of functions and models for managing the risks and threats of the critical information infrastructure. Hence, this paper could be seen as a perspective when taking in consideration the regional strategic management, and the cyber space vital functioning. (author)

  16. RISK MANAGEMENT IN LENDING INSTITUTIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION

    BOGHEAN FLORIN

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The Romanian companies are nowadays facing process of extinction of decisions based on risk and uncertainty, as a consequence of the permanent transforming process of the economy and because of the privatization, restructuring and globalization activities. The main forms of risk are can be grouped in eight categories: economical risks, financial risks, commercial risks, manufacturing risks, political risks, social risks, juridical risks, natural risks. Through its nature the decision is referring to the future, mainly being provisional. In any decisional process developed at the company level, there are involved in the same time some economical, techniques, juridical, human and managerial variables. The economic recession generated by the chaos affecting financial systems has profoundly distressed the public, business circles and political leaders. The crisis has inexorably had negative effects on global economic growth and will have political, strategic and social consequences as well. The contents of this paper encompasses theoretical and practical aspects, quantitative and qualitative analyses, all aimed at identifying, analysing and controlling bank risks and, last but not least, at managing these risks.

  17. INTERSTOCK EFFECT ON THE GROWTH OF MANDARIN CV BATU 55, TANGERINE CV PONTIANAK AND LIME CV NIMAS PROPAGATED BY GRAFTING

    Sugiyatno A.

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Japansche citroen (JC rootstock is still the main choice for producing citrus seeds for its high availability and compatibility. Other rootstocks have been used in the production, yet they produce unsatisfying results. Based on the theory, there is an alternative to use rootstock as interstock in order to stimulate the growth of scion. The objective of this reseach is to understand the effect of interstock on the growth of Mandarin cv. Batu 55, Tangerine cv. Pontianak and Lime cv. Nimas. This research was conducted in the screen house of Tlekung Experimental Field of Indonesian Citrus and Subtropical Fruits Research Institute (ICSFRI in Batu-East Java, located on 950 m asl, from January to April 2016. This research was arranged in a CRD design with 4 replications and 24 interstock-scion combination treatments. The interstocks used in this study were Carizzo citrange, Citrumello, Poncirus trifoliata, Volkameriana, Rough lemon, Troyer citrange, Kanci and control (JC combined with 3 scions namely Mandarin cv. Batu 55, Tangerine cv. Pontianak and Lime cv. Nimas propagated by grafting. The result showed the percentage of successful grafting ranged between 37.5% to 100%, while the percentage of the shoot formed on grafted plants was 75%-100%. The use of Poncirus trifoliata as interstock has stimulated fastest bud break on Tangerine cv. Pontianak in just 24.75 days while the Troyer citrange has stimulated better shoot growth in Lime cv. Nimas, resulted to the highest shoot around 52.20 cm which was significantly different from other treatments. Meanwhile, Carizzo citrange has been found to have some influences to the plant diameter and the number of leave of Lime cv. Nimas but showed insignificant effect on the growth of its own diameter. The use of interstock showed that it can be used to promote the growth of scion which usually has slow growth when it is directly grafted on the rootstock.

  18. Modeling and Managing the Risks of Measles and Rubella: A Global Perspective, Part I.

    Thompson, Kimberly M; Cochi, Stephen L

    2016-07-01

    Over the past 50 years, the use of vaccines led to significant decreases in the global burdens of measles and rubella, motivated at least in part by the successive development of global control and elimination targets. The Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) includes specific targets for regional elimination of measles and rubella in five of six regions of the World Health Organization by 2020. Achieving the GVAP measles and rubella goals will require significant immunization efforts and associated financial investments and political commitments. Planning and budgeting for these efforts can benefit from learning some important lessons from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI). Following an overview of the global context of measles and rubella risks and discussion of lessons learned from the GPEI, we introduce the contents of the special issue on modeling and managing the risks of measles and rubella. This introduction describes the synthesis of the literature available to support evidence-based model inputs to support the development of an integrated economic and dynamic disease transmission model to support global efforts to optimally manage these diseases globally using vaccines. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Global timber investments, wood costs, regulation, and risk

    Cubbage, Frederick; Koesbandana, Sadharga; Gonzalez, Ronalds; Carrero, Omar; MacIntyre, Charles; Abt, Robert; Phillips, Richard; Mac Donagh, Patricio; Rubilar, Rafael; Balmelli, Gustavo; Olmos, Virginia Morales; De La Torre, Rafael; Murara, Mauro; Hoeflich, Vitor Afonso; Kotze, Heynz; Frey, Gregory; Adams, Thomas; Turner, James; Lord, Roger; Huang, Jin; McGinley, Kathleen

    2010-01-01

    We estimated financial returns and wood production costs in 2008 for the primary timber plantation species. Excluding land costs, returns for exotic plantations in almost all of South America - Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Colombia, Venezuela, and Paraguay - were substantial. Eucalyptus species returns were generally greater than those for Pinus species in each country, with most having Internal Rates of Return (IRRs) of 20% per year or more, as did teak. Pinus species in South America were generally closer to 15%, except in Argentina, where they were 20%. IRRs were less, but still attractive for plantations of coniferous or deciduous species in China, South Africa, New Zealand, Indonesia, and the United States, ranging from 7% to 12%. Costs of wood production at the cost of capital of 8% per year were generally cheapest for countries with high rates of return and for pulpwood fiber production, which would favor vertically integrated firms in Latin America. But wood costs at stumpage market prices were much greater, making net wood costs for open market wood more similar among countries. In the Americas, Chile and Brazil had the most regulatory components of sustainable forest management, followed by Misiones, Argentina and Oregon in the U.S. New Zealand, the United States, and Chile had the best rankings regarding risk from political, commercial, war, or government actions and for the ease of doing business. Conversely, Venezuela, Indonesia, Colombia, and Argentina had high risk ratings, and Brazil, Indonesia, and Venezuela were ranked as more difficult countries for ease of business. (author)

  20. Global timber investments, wood costs, regulation, and risk

    Cubbage, Frederick; Koesbandana, Sadharga; Gonzalez, Ronalds; Carrero, Omar; MacIntyre, Charles; Abt, Robert; Phillips, Richard [Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC (United States); Mac Donagh, Patricio [Universidad Nacional de Misiones (UNAM), Lisandro de la Torre s/n, CP 3380, Eldorado, Misiones (Argentina); Rubilar, Rafael [Universidad de Concepcion, Victoria 631, Casilla 160-C - Correo 3, Concepcion (Chile); Balmelli, Gustavo [Instituto Nacional de Investigacion Agropecuria, INIA Tacuarembo, Ruta 5, Km 386, Tacuarembo (Uruguay); Olmos, Virginia Morales [Weyerhaeuser Company, La Rosa 765, Melo (Uruguay); De La Torre, Rafael [CellFor, 247 Davis Street, Athens, GA (United States); Murara, Mauro [Universidade do Contestado, R. Joaquim Nabuco, 314 Bairro Cidade Nova, Porto Uniao, Santa Catarina (Brazil); Hoeflich, Vitor Afonso [Universidade Federal do Parana, Av. Pref. Lothario Meissner, 900, 80210-170, Jardim Botanico, Curitiba, Parana (Brazil); Kotze, Heynz [Komatiland Forests (Pty) Ltd, P.O. Box 14228, Nelspruit (South Africa); Frey, Gregory [World Bank, 1818 H. Street NW, Washington, DC (United States); Adams, Thomas; Turner, James [New Zealand Forest Research Institute Ltd., Scion, 49 Sala St., Rotorua (New Zealand); Lord, Roger [Mason, Bruce, and Girard, Inc., 707 SW Washington St., Portland, Oregon (United States); Huang, Jin [Abt Associates, 4550 Montgomery Avenue, Bethesda, MD (United States); McGinley, Kathleen [International Institute of Tropical Forestry, USDA Forest Service, c/o 920 Main Campus Dr. Suite 300, Raleigh, NC (United States)

    2010-12-15

    We estimated financial returns and wood production costs in 2008 for the primary timber plantation species. Excluding land costs, returns for exotic plantations in almost all of South America - Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Colombia, Venezuela, and Paraguay - were substantial. Eucalyptus species returns were generally greater than those for Pinus species in each country, with most having Internal Rates of Return (IRRs) of 20% per year or more, as did teak. Pinus species in South America were generally closer to 15%, except in Argentina, where they were 20%. IRRs were less, but still attractive for plantations of coniferous or deciduous species in China, South Africa, New Zealand, Indonesia, and the United States, ranging from 7% to 12%. Costs of wood production at the cost of capital of 8% per year were generally cheapest for countries with high rates of return and for pulpwood fiber production, which would favor vertically integrated firms in Latin America. But wood costs at stumpage market prices were much greater, making net wood costs for open market wood more similar among countries. In the Americas, Chile and Brazil had the most regulatory components of sustainable forest management, followed by Misiones, Argentina and Oregon in the U.S. New Zealand, the United States, and Chile had the best rankings regarding risk from political, commercial, war, or government actions and for the ease of doing business. Conversely, Venezuela, Indonesia, Colombia, and Argentina had high risk ratings, and Brazil, Indonesia, and Venezuela were ranked as more difficult countries for ease of business. (author)

  1. Growing pains: How risk perception and risk communication research can help to manage the challenges of global population growth.

    Dawson, Ian G J; Johnson, Johnnie E V

    2014-08-01

    In 2011, the global human population reached 7 billion and medium variant projections indicate that it will exceed 9 billion before 2045. Theoretical and empirical perspectives suggest that this growth could lead to an increase in the likelihood of adverse events (e.g., food shortages, climate change, etc.) and/or the severity of adverse events (e.g., famines, natural disasters, etc.). Several scholars have posited that the size to which the global population grows and the extent to which this growth increases the likelihood of adverse outcomes will largely be shaped by individuals' decisions (in households, organizations, governments, etc.). In light of the strong relationship between perceived risk and decision behaviors, it is surprising that there remains a dearth of empirical research that specifically examines the perceived risks of population growth and how these perceptions might influence related decisions. In an attempt to motivate this important strand of research, this article examines the major risks that may be exacerbated by global population growth and draws upon empirical work concerning the perception and communication of risk to identify potential directions for future research. The article also considers how individuals might perceive both the risks and benefits of population growth and be helped to better understand and address the related issues. The answers to these questions could help humanity better manage the emerging consequences of its continuing success in increasing infant survival and adult longevity. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Global Burden of Neural Tube Defects, Risk Factors, and Prevention

    Joseph E

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Neural tube defects (NTDs, serious birth defects of the brain and spine usually resulting in death or paralysis, affect an estimated 300,000 births each year worldwide. Although the majority of NTDs are preventable with adequate folic acid consumption during the preconception period and throughout the first few weeks of gestation, many populations, in particular those in low and middle resource settings, do not have access to fortified foods or vitamin supplements containing folic acid. Further, accurate birth defects surveillance data, which could help inform mandatory fortification and other NTD prevention initiatives, are lacking in many of these settings. The burden of birth defects in South East Asia is among the highest in the world. Expanding global neural tube defects prevention initiatives can support the achievement of the United Nations Millennium Development Goal 4 to reduce child mortality, a goal which many countries in South East Asia are currently not poised to reach, and the 63rd World Health Assembly Resolution on birth defects. More work is needed to develop and implement mandatory folic acid fortification policies, as well as supplementation programs in countries where the reach of fortification is limited.

  3. Globalization

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  4. Globalization

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  5. Global warming risk in Russia: National actions and some options for international cooperation

    Sokolov, V.I.

    1995-01-01

    In the management of global environmental risks the Russia case is a special one regarding certain specific features which determine the position of the country, particularly in a new international community emerged on the territory of the former Soviet Union, large scientific interest to the global physical processes and low interest and capabilities to deal with such risks on the part of social institutions inherited from the USSR. The largest country in the world with visible geopolitical role and probably biggest regional differences could not be ignored as a one of major players in the management of global environmental risks. The understanding of all deficiencies and positive sides of global risks management process in this country are absolutely important for extrapolating the appropriate trends in some other parts of the world. At the same time the ex-Soviet Union case shows clearly how the social learning process can radically ''change the course'', diverting to the opposite direction the social goals and preferences. Starting the studies on possibilities to change the climate for improving the human being, the former soviet society perceived the risks of human impact on climate and started to regulate it and to participate in the process of international management of global warming. The level of activity in this process on the part of Russia will however depend heavily on how much national interests will be reflected in the specific prevention measures realized by the international community

  6. Multi-hazard national-level risk assessment in Africa using global approaches

    Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Murnane, Richard

    2016-04-01

    In recent years Sub-Saharan Africa has been characterized by unprecedented opportunity for transformation and sustained growth. However, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and extreme temperatures cause significant economic and human losses, and major development challenges. Quantitative disaster risk assessments are an important basis for governments to understand disaster risk in their country, and to develop effective risk management and risk financing solutions. However, the data-scarce nature of many Sub-Saharan African countries as well as a lack of financing for risk assessments has long prevented detailed analytics. Recent advances in globally applicable disaster risk modelling practices and data availability offer new opportunities. In December 2013 the European Union approved a € 60 million contribution to support the development of an analytical basis for risk financing and to accelerate the effective implementation of a comprehensive disaster risk reduction. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) was selected as the implementing partner of the Program for Result Area 5: the "Africa Disaster Risk Assessment and Financing Program." As part of this effort, the GFDRR is overseeing the production of national-level multi-hazard risk profiles for a range of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, using a combination of national and global datasets and state-of-the-art hazard and risk assessment methodologies. In this presentation, we will highlight the analytical approach behind these assessments, and show results for the first five countries for which the assessment has been completed (Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Niger and Ethiopia). The presentation will also demonstrate the visualization of the risk assessments into understandable and visually attractive risk profile documents.

  7. Russian spent marine fuel as a global security risk

    Gussgard, K.; Reistad, O.

    2001-01-01

    Russian marine fuel is a trans-national security concern. This paper focuses on specific technical properties of Russian marine nuclear fuel especially relevant for evaluating different aspects on nuclear proliferation, in addition to risks associated with regional environmental degradation and illegal diversion of radiological substances. Russian fresh fuel for marine reactors has been involved in several significant cases of illicit trafficking of special nuclear materials. The amount and quality of nuclear materials in Russian spent marine fuel give also reason for concern. Not less than 200 marine reactor cores are ready for having their spent fuel unloaded and preliminary stored on shore in the Far East and North West of Russia, and large amounts of spent naval fuel have been stored at Russian military bases for decades. In order to assess the security risks associated with Russian spent marine fuel, this paper discusses the material attractiveness of spent fuel from all types of Russian marine reactors. The calculations are based on a model of a light water moderated Russian icebreaker reactor. The computer tool HELIOS, used for modelling the reactor and the reactor operations, has been extensively qualified by comparisons with experimental data and international benchmark problems for reactor physics codes as well as through feedback from applications. Some of these benchmarks and studies include fuel enrichments up to 90% in Russian marine reactors. Several fuel data cases are discussed in the paper, focusing especially on: 1) early fuel designs with low initial enrichment; 2) more modern fuel designs used in third and fourth generation of Russian submarines probably with intermediate enriched fuel; and 3) marine fuel with initial enrichment levels close to weapons-grade material. In each case the fuel has been burned until k eff has reached below 1. Case 1) has been evaluated, the calculations made as basis for this paper have concentrated on fuel with

  8. What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Winsemius, Hessel

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, several global scale flood risk models have become available. Within the scientific community these have been, and are being, used to assess and map the current levels of risk faced by countries and societies. Increasingly, they are also being used to assess how that level of risk may change in the future, under scenarios of climate change and/or socioeconomic development. More and more, these 'quick and not so dirty' methods are also being used in practice, for a large range of uses and applications, and by an increasing range of practitioners and decision makers. For example, assessments can be used by: International Financing Institutes for prioritising investments in the most promising natural disaster risk reduction measures and strategies; intra-national institutes in the monitoring of progress on risk reduction activities; the (re-)insurance industry in assessing their risk portfolios and potential changes in those portfolios under climate change; by multinational companies in assessing risks to their regional investments and supply chains; and by international aid organisations for improved resource planning. However, global scale flood risk models clearly have their limits, and therefore both modellers and users need to critically address the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. This contribution is intended to start a dialogue between model developers, users, and decision makers to better answer this question. We will provide a number of examples of how the GLOFRIS global flood risk model has recently been used in several practical applications, and share both the positive and negative insights gained through these experiences. We wish to discuss similar experiences with other groups of modelers, users, and decision-makers, in order to better understand and harness the potential of this new generation of models, understand the differences in model approaches followed and their impacts on applicability, and develop

  9. Global sourcing risk management approaches: A study of small clothing and textile retailers in Gauteng

    Wesley Niemann

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Global sourcing has increased as buyers searched for new markets that offered better pricing, quality, variety and delivery lead times than their local markets. However, the increase in global sourcing has also exposed businesses to many supply risks. Purpose: The purpose of this descriptive qualitative study was to explore the global sourcing supply risks encountered by small clothing and textile retailers in Gauteng and to determine what supply risk identification and management approaches they utilise. Method: This study utilised semi-structured interviews conducted with 12 small clothing and textile retail owners. Results: The study found that the three major supply risks encountered by these retailers were fluctuating exchange rates, communication barriers and costly and complicated logistics, which included high customs costs. Furthermore, although aware of the supply risks, none of the small clothing and textile retailers had formal identification and management approaches in place. Instead, risks are dealt with at the sole discretion of the owner as and when they occur. The study also found that informal identification and management approaches were being applied by some of the retailers. These included factoring exchange rate fluctuations into the profit margins and using translators to combat communication barriers. Contribution: The study is one of the first empirical studies conducted on global supply risks and the associated identification and management approaches in the South African small business context, specifically focused on clothing and textile retailers. Conclusion: Small clothing and textile retailers need to proactively identify and manage global sourcing risk using the identified approaches in order to reduce and mitigate potential supply disruptions.

  10. Going global - how to reduce the risks involved in exporting

    Mowers, J.

    1999-01-01

    Exporting oilfield expertise and technology overseas to new markets can be risky, a lesson that the company Fracmaster Ltd. learned the hard way when it lost investment in the former Soviet Union. The company's demise illustrates some of the risks inherent in conducting business in a foreign country. To be successful at this Canadian oilfield service and supply companies must not only know how to recognize opportunities but also to recognize the possible pitfalls and learn how to avoid them. Before looking at the export market, oil and gas service and supply companies should first ensure that they have not missed any opportunities at home. Canada is the second largest market in the world after the U.S. But companies should approach the American market with caution. The rule that companies should approach the U.S. first does not necessarily hold in the oil and gas industries. Mexico is another country where Canadian companies should use caution. The current hotspots in exporting are countries in the Middle East and the Latin American countries. Saudi Arabia is interested in technology and expertise. although political factors in Iran will have to improve before commitment to that market is advisable. Industry Canada has a wealth of information and services available to companies interested in exporting. There are a number of government programs to help companies finance efforts to enter the export market. Industry Canada also offers a capital projects bidding program for Canadian companies bidding on projects greater than $1 million

  11. Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity

    Ward, Philip J; Jongman, Brenden; Weiland, Frederiek Sperna; Winsemius, Hessel C; Bouwman, Arno; Ligtvoet, Willem; Van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc F P

    2013-01-01

    Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global flood risk maps, based on numerous flood return-periods. Validation results indicate that the model simulates interannual fluctuations in flood impacts well. The cascade involves: hydrological and hydraulic modelling; extreme value statistics; inundation modelling; flood impact modelling; and estimating annual expected impacts. The initial results estimate global impacts for several indicators, for example annual expected exposed population (169 million); and annual expected exposed GDP ($1383 billion). These results are relatively insensitive to the extreme value distribution employed to estimate low frequency flood volumes. However, they are extremely sensitive to the assumed flood protection standard; developing a database of such standards should be a research priority. Also, results are sensitive to the use of two different climate forcing datasets. The impact model can easily accommodate new, user-defined, impact indicators. We envisage several applications, for example: identifying risk hotspots; calculating macro-scale risk for the insurance industry and large companies; and assessing potential benefits (and costs) of adaptation measures. (letter)

  12. Globalization

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  13. Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2015-04-01

    Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

  14. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.; Afshin, Ashkan; Alexander, Lily T.; Anderson, H. Ross; Bhutta, Zulficiar A.; Biryukov, Stan; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Cercy, Kelly; Charlson, Fiona J.; Cohen, Aaron J.; Dandona, Lalit; Estep, Kara; Ferrari, Alize J.; Frostad, Joseph J.; Fullman, Nancy; Gething, Peter W.; Godwin, William W.; Griswold, Max; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kyu, Hmwe H.; Larson, Heidi J.; Liang, Xiaofeng; Lim, Stephen S.; Liu, Patrick Y.; Lopez, Alan D.; Lozano, Rafael; Marczak, Laurie; Mensah, George A.; Mokdad, Ali H.; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Naghavi, Mohsen; Neal, Bruce; Reitsma, Marissa B.; Roth, Gregory A.; Salomon, Joshua A.; Sur, Patrick J.; Vos, Theo; Wagner, Joseph A.; Wang, Haidong; Zhao, Yi; Zhou, Maigeng; Aasvang, Gunn Marit; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbafati, Cristiana; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Hoek, Hans W.; Singh, Abhishek; Tura, Abera Kenay

    2016-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform

  15. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    Forouzanfar, Mohammad Hossein; Afshin, Ashkan; Alexander, Lily T.; Ross Anderson, H.; Bhutta, Zulfiqar; Biryukov, Stan; Brauer, M.; Burnett, Richard; Cercy, Kelly; Charlson, Fiona J.; Geleijnse, J.M.

    2016-01-01

    Background
    The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform

  16. Wyoming CV Pilot Traveler Information Message Sample

    Department of Transportation — This dataset contains a sample of the sanitized Traveler Information Messages (TIM) being generated by the Wyoming Connected Vehicle (CV) Pilot. The full set of TIMs...

  17. cv. “Sukali Ndiizi”- AAB

    Clara

    2013-03-27

    Mar 27, 2013 ... improve transformation and regeneration efficiency of banana (cv. “Sukali .... Vuylsteke (1989) proliferation medium in the tissue culture .... DNA repair machinery is more active during cell division ... Biology-Plant 40:31-45.

  18. Limited geographic distribution of the novel cyclovirus CyCV-VN.

    Le, Van Tan; de Jong, Menno D; Nguyen, Van Kinh; Nguyen, Vu Trung; Taylor, Walter; Wertheim, Heiman F L; van der Ende, Arie; van der Hoek, Lia; Canuti, Marta; Crusat, Martin; Sona, Soeng; Nguyen, Hanh Uyen; Giri, Abhishek; Nguyen, Thi Thuy Chinh Bkrong; Ho, Dang Trung Nghia; Farrar, Jeremy; Bryant, Juliet E; Tran, Tinh Hien; Nguyen, Van Vinh Chau; van Doorn, H Rogier

    2014-02-05

    A novel cyclovirus, CyCV-VN, was recently identified in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) from patients with central nervous system (CNS) infections in central and southern Vietnam. To explore the geographic distribution of this novel virus, more than 600 CSF specimens from patients with suspected CNS infections in northern Vietnam, Cambodia, Nepal and The Netherlands were screened for the presence of CyCV-VN but all were negative. Sequence comparison and phylogenetic analysis between CyCV-VN and another novel cyclovirus recently identified in CSF from Malawian patients indicated that these represent distinct cycloviral species, albeit phylogenetically closely related. The data suggest that CyCV-VN has a limited geographic distribution within southern and central Vietnam. Further research is needed to determine the global distribution and diversity of cycloviruses and importantly their possible association with human disease.

  19. Theoretical and practical aspects of risk management in contemporary global supply chains

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Globalization, off-shoring, outsourcing and pressure on cost reduction influence on the increasing complexity of supply chains and lead to higher risk. This may concern supplies, deliveries, manufacturing and transportation. Companies which source from distant countries have to implement risk management system. Examples of companies which use such systems prove, that it is possible to reduce uncertainty. Results concern shorter lead times, better quality and accepted cost level.

  20. A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States.

    Christopher W Woodall

    Full Text Available Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C, but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and evaluated a basic risk framework which combined the magnitude of C stocks and their associated probability of stock change in the context of global change across the US. For the purposes of this analysis, forest C was divided into five pools, two live (aboveground and belowground biomass and three dead (dead wood, soil organic matter, and forest floor with a risk framework parameterized using the US's national greenhouse gas inventory and associated forest inventory data across current and projected future Köppen-Geiger climate zones (A1F1 scenario. Results suggest that an initial forest C risk matrix may be constructed to focus attention on short- and long-term risks to forest C stocks (as opposed to implementation in decision making using inventory-based estimates of total stocks and associated estimates of variability (i.e., coefficient of variation among climate zones. The empirical parameterization of such a risk matrix highlighted numerous knowledge gaps: 1 robust measures of the likelihood of forest C stock change under climate change scenarios, 2 projections of forest C stocks given unforeseen socioeconomic conditions (i.e., land-use change, and 3 appropriate social responses to global change events for which there is no contemporary climate/disturbance analog (e.g., severe droughts in the Lake States. Coupling these current technical/social limits of developing a risk matrix to the biological processes of forest ecosystems (i.e., disturbance events and interaction among diverse forest C pools, potential positive feedbacks, and forest resiliency/recovery suggests an operational

  1. Cardiovascular risk management in rheumatoid arthritis patients still suboptimal: the Implementation of Cardiovascular Risk Management in Rheumatoid Arthritis project

    van den Oever, Inge A. M.; Heslinga, Maaike; Griep, Ed N.; Griep-Wentink, Hanneke R. M.; Schotsman, Rob; Cambach, Walter; Dijkmans, Ben A. C.; Smulders, Yvo M.; Lems, Willem F.; Boers, Maarten; Voskuyl, Alexandre E.; Peters, Mike J. L.; van Schaardenburg, Dirkjan; Nurmohamed, Micheal T.

    2017-01-01

    To assess the 10-year cardiovascular (CV) risk score and to identify treatment and undertreatment of CV risk factors in patients with established RA. Demographics, CV risk factors and prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) were assessed by questionnaire. To calculate the 10-year CV risk score

  2. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioral, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    Moesgaard Iburg, Kim

    2016-01-01

    inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group......, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk...... pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood...

  3. A globally-distributed alien invasive species poses risks to United States imperiled species.

    McClure, Meredith L; Burdett, Christopher L; Farnsworth, Matthew L; Sweeney, Steven J; Miller, Ryan S

    2018-03-28

    In the midst of Earth's sixth mass extinction event, non-native species are a driving factor in many imperiled species' declines. One of the most widespread and destructive alien invasive species in the world, wild pigs (Sus scrofa) threaten native species through predation, habitat destruction, competition, and disease transmission. We show that wild pigs co-occur with up to 87.2% of imperiled species in the contiguous U.S. identified as susceptible to their direct impacts, and we project increases in both the number of species at risk and the geographic extent of risks by 2025. Wild pigs may therefore present a severe threat to U.S. imperiled species, with serious implications for management of at-risk species throughout wild pigs' global distribution. We offer guidance for efficient allocation of research effort and conservation resources across species and regions using a simple approach that can be applied to wild pigs and other alien invasive species globally.

  4. A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion.

    Oakleaf, James R; Kennedy, Christina M; Baruch-Mordo, Sharon; West, Paul C; Gerber, James S; Jarvis, Larissa; Kiesecker, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2) and could result in half of the world's biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth's at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature.

  5. Global potential for carbon sequestration. Geographical distribution, country risk and policy implications

    Benitez, Pablo C.; McCallum, Ian; Obersteiner, Michael; Yamagata, Yoshiki

    2007-01-01

    We have provided a framework for identifying least-cost sites for afforestation and reforestation and deriving carbon sequestration cost curves at a global level in a scenario of limited information. Special attention is given to country risk in developing countries and the sensitivity to spatial datasets. Our model results suggest that within 20 years and considering a carbon price of USD 50/tC, tree-planting activities could offset 1 year of global carbon emissions in the energy sector. However, if we account for country risk considerations-associated with political, economic and financial risks - carbon sequestration is reduced by approximately 60%. With respect to the geography of supply, illustrated by grid-scale maps, we find that most least-cost sites are located in regions of developing countries such as the Sub-Sahara, Southeast Brazil and Southeast Asia. (author)

  6. Global assessment of river flood protection benefits and corresponding residual risks under climate change

    Lim, Wee Ho; Yamazaki, Dai; Koirala, Sujan; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Kanae, Shinjiro; Dadson, Simon J.; Hall, Jim W.

    2016-04-01

    Global warming increases the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere and this could lead to more intense rainfalls and possibly increasing natural hazards in the form of flooding in some regions. This implies that traditional practice of using historical hydrological records alone is somewhat limited for supporting long-term water infrastructure planning. This has motivated recent global scale studies to evaluate river flood risks (e.g., Hirabayashi et al., 2013, Arnell and Gosling, 2014, Sadoff et al., 2015) and adaptations benefits (e.g., Jongman et al., 2015). To support decision-making in river flood risk reduction, this study takes a further step to examine the benefits and corresponding residual risks for a range of flood protection levels. To do that, we channelled runoff information of a baseline period (forced by observed hydroclimate conditions) and each CMIP5 model (historic and future periods) into a global river routing model called CaMa-Flood (Yamazaki et al., 2011). We incorporated the latest global river width data (Yamazaki et al., 2014) into CaMa-Flood and simulate the river water depth at a spatial resolution of 15 min x 15 min. From the simulated results of baseline period, we use the annual maxima river water depth to fit the Gumbel distribution and prepare the return period-flood risk relationship (involving population and GDP). From the simulated results of CMIP5 model, we also used the annual maxima river water depth to obtain the Gumbel distribution and then estimate the exceedance probability (historic and future periods). We apply the return period-flood risk relationship (above) to the exceedance probability and evaluate the flood protection benefits. We quantify the corresponding residual risks using a mathematical approach that is consistent with the modelling structure of CaMa-Flood. Globally and regionally, we find that the benefits of flood protection level peak somewhere between 20 and 500 years; residual risks diminish

  7. Risk Analysis Reveals Global Hotspots for Marine Debris Ingestion by Sea Turtles

    Schuyler, Q. A.; Wilcox, C.; Townsend, K.; Wedemeyer-Strombel, K.; Balazs, G.; van Sebille, E.; Hardesty, B. D.

    2016-02-01

    Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with sea turtle habitat maps to predict exposure levels to plastic pollution. Empirical data from necropsies of deceased animals were then utilised to assess the consequence of exposure to plastics. We modelled the risk (probability of debris ingestion) by incorporating exposure to debris and consequence of exposure, and included life history stage, species of sea turtle, and date of stranding observation as possible additional explanatory factors. Life history stage is the best predictor of debris ingestion, but the best-fit model also incorporates encounter rates within a limited distance from stranding location, marine debris predictions specific to the date of the stranding study, and turtle species. There was no difference in ingestion rates between stranded turtles vs. those caught as bycatch from fishing activity, suggesting that stranded animals are not a biased representation of debris ingestion rates in the background population. Oceanic life-stage sea turtles are at the highest risk of debris ingestion, and olive ridley turtles are the most at-risk species. The regions of highest risk to global sea turtle populations are off of the east coasts of the USA, Australia, and South Africa; the east Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia. Model results can be used to predict the number of sea turtles globally at risk of debris ingestion. Based on currently available data, initial calculations indicate that up to 52% of sea turtles may have ingested debris.

  8. Risk analysis reveals global hotspots for marine debris ingestion by sea turtles.

    Schuyler, Qamar A; Wilcox, Chris; Townsend, Kathy A; Wedemeyer-Strombel, Kathryn R; Balazs, George; van Sebille, Erik; Hardesty, Britta Denise

    2016-02-01

    Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with sea turtle habitat maps to predict exposure levels to plastic pollution. Empirical data from necropsies of deceased animals were then utilised to assess the consequence of exposure to plastics. We modelled the risk (probability of debris ingestion) by incorporating exposure to debris and consequence of exposure, and included life history stage, species of sea turtle and date of stranding observation as possible additional explanatory factors. Life history stage is the best predictor of debris ingestion, but the best-fit model also incorporates encounter rates within a limited distance from stranding location, marine debris predictions specific to the date of the stranding study and turtle species. There is no difference in ingestion rates between stranded turtles vs. those caught as bycatch from fishing activity, suggesting that stranded animals are not a biased representation of debris ingestion rates in the background population. Oceanic life-stage sea turtles are at the highest risk of debris ingestion, and olive ridley turtles are the most at-risk species. The regions of highest risk to global sea turtle populations are off of the east coasts of the USA, Australia and South Africa; the east Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia. Model results can be used to predict the number of sea turtles globally at risk of debris ingestion. Based on currently available data, initial calculations indicate that up to 52% of sea turtles may have ingested debris. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Prevalence of Gestational Diabetes and Risk of Progression to Type 2 Diabetes: a Global Perspective.

    Zhu, Yeyi; Zhang, Cuilin

    2016-01-01

    Despite the increasing epidemic of diabetes mellitus affecting populations at different life stages, the global burden of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is not well assessed. Systematically synthesized data on global prevalence estimates of GDM are lacking, particularly among developing countries. The hyperglycemic intrauterine environment as exemplified in pregnancies complicated by GDM might not only reflect but also fuel the epidemic of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We comprehensively reviewed available data in the past decade in an attempt to estimate the contemporary global prevalence of GDM by country and region. We reviewed the risk of progression from GDM to T2DM as well. Synthesized data demonstrate wide variations in both prevalence estimates of GDM and the risk of progression from GDM to T2DM. Direct comparisons of GDM burden across countries or regions are challenging given the great heterogeneity in screening approaches, diagnostic criteria, and underlying population characteristics. In this regard, collaborative efforts to estimate global GDM prevalence would be a large but important leap forward. Such efforts may have substantial public health implications in terms of informing health policy makers and healthcare providers for disease burden and for developing more targeted and effective diabetes prevention and management strategies globally.

  10. Global assessment of extinction risk to populations of Sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka.

    Peter S Rand

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Concern about the decline of wild salmon has attracted the attention of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN. The IUCN applies quantitative criteria to assess risk of extinction and publishes its results on the Red List of Threatened Species. However, the focus is on the species level and thus may fail to show the risk to populations. The IUCN has adapted their criteria to apply to populations but there exist few examples of this type of assessment. We assessed the status of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka as a model for application of the IUCN population-level assessments and to provide the first global assessment of the status of an anadromous Pacific salmon. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We found from demographic data that the sockeye salmon species is not presently at risk of extinction. We identified 98 independent populations with varying levels of risk within the species' range. Of these, 5 (5% are already extinct. We analyzed the risk for 62 out of 93 extant populations (67% and found that 17 of these (27% are at risk of extinction. The greatest number and concentration of extinct and threatened populations is in the southern part of the North American range, primarily due to overfishing, freshwater habitat loss, dams, hatcheries, and changing ocean conditions. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Although sockeye salmon are not at risk at the species-level, about one-third of the populations that we analyzed are at risk or already extinct. Without an understanding of risk to biodiversity at the level of populations, the biodiversity loss in salmon would be greatly underrepresented on the Red List. We urge government, conservation organizations, scientists and the public to recognize this limitation of the Red List. We also urge recognition that about one-third of sockeye salmon global population diversity is at risk of extinction or already extinct.

  11. Comparison and Evaluation of Global Scale Studies of Vulnerability and Risks to Climate Change

    Muccione, Veruska; Allen, Simon K.; Huggel, Christian; Birkmann, Joern

    2015-04-01

    Understanding the present and future distribution of different climate change impacts and vulnerability to climate change is a central subject in the context of climate justice and international climate policy. Commonly, it is claimed that poor countries that contributed little to anthropogenic climate change are those most affected and most vulnerable to climate change. Such statements are backed by a number of global-scale vulnerability studies, which identified poor countries as most vulnerable. However, some studies have challenged this view, likewise highlighting the high vulnerability of richer countries. Overall, no consensus has been reached so far about which concept of vulnerability should be applied and what type of indicators should be considered. Furthermore, there is little agreement which specific countries are most vulnerable. This is a major concern in view of the need to inform international climate policy, all the more if such assessments should contribute to allocate climate adaptation funds as was invoked at some instances. We argue that next to the analysis of who is most vulnerable, it is also important to better understand and compare different vulnerability profiles assessed in present global studies. We perform a systematic literature review of global vulnerability assessments with the scope to highlight vulnerability distribution patterns. We then compare these distributions with global risk distributions in line with revised and adopted concepts by most recent IPCC reports. It emerges that improved differentiation of key drivers of risk and the understanding of different vulnerability profiles are important contributions, which can inform future adaptation policies at the regional and national level. This can change the perspective on, and basis for distributional issues in view of climate burden share, and therefore can have implications for UNFCCC financing instruments (e.g. Green Climate Fund). However, in order to better compare

  12. A global evolutionary and metabolic analysis of human obesity gene risk variants.

    Castillo, Joseph J; Hazlett, Zachary S; Orlando, Robert A; Garver, William S

    2017-09-05

    It is generally accepted that the selection of gene variants during human evolution optimized energy metabolism that now interacts with our obesogenic environment to increase the prevalence of obesity. The purpose of this study was to perform a global evolutionary and metabolic analysis of human obesity gene risk variants (110 human obesity genes with 127 nearest gene risk variants) identified using genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to enhance our knowledge of early and late genotypes. As a result of determining the mean frequency of these obesity gene risk variants in 13 available populations from around the world our results provide evidence for the early selection of ancestral risk variants (defined as selection before migration from Africa) and late selection of derived risk variants (defined as selection after migration from Africa). Our results also provide novel information for association of these obesity genes or encoded proteins with diverse metabolic pathways and other human diseases. The overall results indicate a significant differential evolutionary pattern for the selection of obesity gene ancestral and derived risk variants proposed to optimize energy metabolism in varying global environments and complex association with metabolic pathways and other human diseases. These results are consistent with obesity genes that encode proteins possessing a fundamental role in maintaining energy metabolism and survival during the course of human evolution. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  13. Globalization

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  14. Globalization

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  15. Alcohol and CV Health: Jekyll and Hyde J-Curves.

    O'Keefe, Evan L; DiNicolantonio, James J; O'Keefe, James H; Lavie, Carl J

    2018-02-16

    A routine of light or moderate alcohol consumption (≤1 drink/day for women and 1 to 2 drinks/day for men) is associated with a lower risk for all-cause mortality, coronary artery disease (CAD), type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), heart failure (HF), and stroke. Conversely, heavy drinking, (>4 drinks/day) is associated with an increased risk for death and cardiovascular (CV) disease (CVD). Excessive alcohol intake trails behind only smoking and obesity among the 3 leading causes of premature deaths in the United States (US). Heavy alcohol use is a common cause of reversible hypertension (HTN), nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy, atrial fibrillation (AF), and stroke (both ischemic and hemorrhagic). Among males aged 15 to 59 years, alcohol abuse is perhaps the leading cause of premature death. As such, the risk-to-benefit ratio of drinking is less favorable in younger individuals. A daily habit of light to moderate drinking is ideal for those who choose to consume alcohol regularly. Red wine in particular before or during the evening meal is linked with the best long-term CV outcomes. Most of the studies on alcohol and health are observational, and correlation does not prove causation. Health care professionals should not advise nondrinkers to begin drinking because of the paucity of randomized outcome data coupled with the potential for alcohol abuse even among seemingly low risk individuals. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  16. Distribution of major health risks: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study.

    Anthony Rodgers

    2004-10-01

    Full Text Available Most analyses of risks to health focus on the total burden of their aggregate effects. The distribution of risk-factor-attributable disease burden, for example by age or exposure level, can inform the selection and targeting of specific interventions and programs, and increase cost-effectiveness.For 26 selected risk factors, expert working groups conducted comprehensive reviews of data on risk-factor exposure and hazard for 14 epidemiological subregions of the world, by age and sex. Age-sex-subregion-population attributable fractions were estimated and applied to the mortality and burden of disease estimates from the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease database. Where possible, exposure levels were assessed as continuous measures, or as multiple categories. The proportion of risk-factor-attributable burden in different population subgroups, defined by age, sex, and exposure level, was estimated. For major cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure, cholesterol, tobacco use, fruit and vegetable intake, body mass index, and physical inactivity 43%-61% of attributable disease burden occurred between the ages of 15 and 59 y, and 87% of alcohol-attributable burden occurred in this age group. Most of the disease burden for continuous risks occurred in those with only moderately raised levels, not among those with levels above commonly used cut-points, such as those with hypertension or obesity. Of all disease burden attributable to being underweight during childhood, 55% occurred among children 1-3 standard deviations below the reference population median, and the remainder occurred among severely malnourished children, who were three or more standard deviations below median.Many major global risks are widely spread in a population, rather than restricted to a minority. Population-based strategies that seek to shift the whole distribution of risk factors often have the potential to produce substantial reductions in disease burden.

  17. Coping with global environmental change, disasters and security. Threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks

    Brauch, Hans Guenter [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Dept. of Political and Social Sciences; UNU-EHS, Bonn (DE). College of Associated Scientists and Advisors (CASA); Oswald Spring, Ursula [National Univ. of Mexico, Cuernavaca (MX). Regional Multidisciplinary Research Centre (CRIM); Mesjasz, Czeslaw [Cracow Univ. of Exonomics (Poland). Faculty of Management; Grin, John [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Dept. of Political Science; Dutch Knowledge network for Systems Innovations and Transitions (KSI), Amsterdam (Netherlands); Kameri-Mbote, Patricia [Strathmore Univ., Nairobi (Kenya). Dept. of Law; International Environmental Law Research Centre, Nairobi (Kenya); Chourou, Bechir [Univ. of Tunis-Carthage, Hammam-Chatt (Tunisia); Dunay, Pal [Geneva Centre for Security Policy (Switzerland). International Training Course in Security Policy; Birkmann, Joern (eds.) [United Nations Univ. (UNU), Bonn (DE). Inst. for Environment and Human Security (EHS)

    2011-07-01

    This policy-focused Global Environmental and Human Security Handbook for the Anthropo-cene (GEHSHA) addresses new security threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks posed by global environmental change and disasters. In 6 forewords, 5 preface essays 95 peer reviewed chapcountries analyse in 10 parts concepts of military and political hard security and economic, social, environmental soft security with a regional focus on the Near East, North and Sub-Sahara Africa and Asia and on hazards in urban centres. The major focus is on coping with global environmental change: climate change, desertification, water, food and health and with hazards and strategies on social vulnerability and resilience building and scientific, international, regional and national political strategies, policies and measures including early warning of conflicts and hazards. The book proposes a political geo-ecology and discusses a 'Fourth Green Revolution' for the Anthropocene era of earth history. (orig.)

  18. A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  19. Assessing global exposure and vulnerability towards natural hazards: the Disaster Risk Index

    P. Peduzzi

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model of factors influencing levels of human losses from natural hazards at the global scale, for the period 1980–2000. This model was designed for the United Nations Development Programme as a building stone of the Disaster Risk Index (DRI, which aims at monitoring the evolution of risk. Assessing what countries are most at risk requires considering various types of hazards, such as droughts, floods, cyclones and earthquakes. Before assessing risk, these four hazards were modelled using GIS and overlaid with a model of population distribution in order to extract human exposure. Human vulnerability was measured by crossing exposure with selected socio-economic parameters. The model evaluates to what extent observed past losses are related to population exposure and vulnerability. Results reveal that human vulnerability is mostly linked with country development level and environmental quality. A classification of countries is provided, as well as recommendations on data improvement for future use of the model.

  20. An updated prediction model of the global risk of cardiovascular disease in HIV-positive persons

    Friis-Møller, Nina; Ryom, Lene; Smith, Colette

    2016-01-01

    ,663 HIV-positive persons from 20 countries in Europe and Australia, who were free of CVD at entry into the Data-collection on Adverse Effects of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study. Cox regression models (full and reduced) were developed that predict the risk of a global CVD endpoint. The predictive performance...... significantly predicted risk more accurately than the recalibrated Framingham model (Harrell's c-statistic of 0.791, 0.783 and 0.766 for the D:A:D full, D:A:D reduced, and Framingham models respectively; p models also more accurately predicted five-year CVD-risk for key prognostic subgroups...... to quantify risk and to guide preventive care....

  1. Environmental and Health Benefits and Risks of a Global Hydrogen Economy

    Dubey, M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Rahn, T. A.; Kinnison, D. E.

    2003-12-01

    Rapid development in hydrogen fuel-cell technologies will create a strong impetus for a massive hydrogen supply and distribution infrastructure in the coming decades. Hydrogen provides an efficient energy carrier that promises to enhance urban and regional air quality that will benefit human health. It could also reduce risks of climate change if large-scale hydrogen production by renewable or nuclear energy sources becomes viable. While it is well known that the byproduct of energy produced from hydrogen is water vapor, it is not well known that the storage and transfer of hydrogen is inevitably accompanied by measurable leakage of hydrogen. Unintended consequences of hydrogen leakage include reduction in global oxidative capacity, changes in tropospheric ozone, and increase in stratospheric water that would exacerbate halogen induced ozone losses as well as impact the earth's radiation budget and climate. Stratospheric ozone depletion would increase exposure to harmful ultraviolet radiation and increased risk to melanoma. We construct plausible global hydrogen energy use and leak scenarios and assess their impacts using global 3-D simulations by the Model for Ozone And Related Trace species (MOZART). The hydrogen fluxes and photochemistry in our model successfully reproduce the contemporary hydrogen cycle as observed by a network of remote global stations. Our intent is to determine environmentally tolerable leak rates and also facilitate a gradual phasing in of a hydrogen economy over the next several decades as the elimination of the use of halocarbons gradually reduces halogen induced stratospheric ozone loss rates. We stress that the future evolution of microbial soil sink of hydrogen that determines its current lifetime (about 2 years) is the principal source of uncertainty in our assessment. We propose global monitoring of hydrogen and its deuterium content to define a baseline and track its budget to responsibly prepare for a global hydrogen economy.

  2. Reaping Environmental Benefits of a Global Hydrogen Economy: How Large, Fow Soon, and at What Risks?

    Dubey, M. K.; Horowitz, L. W.; Rahn, T. A.; Kinnison, D. E.

    2004-12-01

    The Western world has taken an aggressive posture to transition to a global hydrogen economy. While numerous technical challenges need to be addressed to achieve this it is timely to examine the environmental benefits and risks of this transition. Hydrogen provides an efficient energy carrier that promises to enhance urban and regional air quality that will benefit human health. It could also reduce risks of climate change if large-scale hydrogen production by renewable or nuclear energy sources becomes viable. While it is well known that the byproduct of energy produced from hydrogen is water vapor, it is not well known that the storage and transfer of hydrogen is inevitably accompanied by measurable leakage of hydrogen. Unintended consequences of hydrogen leakage include reduction in global oxidative capacity, changes in tropospheric ozone, and increase in stratospheric water that would exacerbate halogen induced ozone losses as well as impact the earth's radiation budget and climate. We construct plausible global hydrogen energy use and leak scenarios and assess their impacts using global 3-D simulations by the Model for Ozone And Related Trace species (MOZART). The hydrogen fluxes and photochemistry in our model successfully reproduce the contemporary hydrogen cycle as observed by a network of remote global stations. Our intent is to determine environmentally tolerable leak rates and also facilitate a gradual phasing in of a hydrogen economy over the next several decades as the elimination of the use of halocarbons gradually reduces halogen induced stratospheric ozone loss rates. We stress that the leak rates in global hydrogen infrastructure and the future evolution of microbial soil sink of hydrogen that determines its current lifetime (about 2 years) are principal sources of uncertainty in our assessment.

  3. Multi-Model Projections of River Flood Risk in Europe under Global Warming

    Lorenzo Alfieri

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge on the costs of natural disasters under climate change is key information for planning adaptation and mitigation strategies of future climate policies. Impact models for large scale flood risk assessment have made leaps forward in the past few years, thanks to the increased availability of high resolution climate projections and of information on local exposure and vulnerability to river floods. Yet, state-of-the-art flood impact models rely on a number of input data and techniques that can substantially influence their results. This work compares estimates of river flood risk in Europe from three recent case studies, assuming global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels. The assessment is based on comparing ensemble projections of expected damage and population affected at country level. Differences and common points between the three cases are shown, to point out main sources of uncertainty, strengths, and limitations. In addition, the multi-model comparison helps identify regions with the largest agreement on specific changes in flood risk. Results show that global warming is linked to substantial increase in flood risk over most countries in Central and Western Europe at all warming levels. In Eastern Europe, the average change in flood risk is smaller and the multi-model agreement is poorer.

  4. Global Hotspots of Conflict Risk between Food Security and Biodiversity Conservation

    Molotoks, Amy; Dawson, Terence Peter

    2017-01-01

    The global challenges of food security and biodiversity are rarely addressed together, though recently there has been an increasing awareness that the two issues are closely related. The majority of land available for agriculture is already used for food production, but despite the productivity gains, one in nine people worldwide are classified as food insecure. There is an increasing risk that addressing food insecurity through methods such as agricultural expansion orintensification could l...

  5. Public risk-reduction measures: cost-effectiveness from a global point-of-view

    Oliveira, L.F.S. de; Motta Barros, E.B. da; Fleming, P.V.; Rosa, L.P.

    1985-05-01

    A review of systemic or global approach to cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures is presented, and its advantages and limitations are discussed. The method is applied for problem of the cost-effectiveness of increasing the Angra 3 reactor containment wall thickness from 60cm to 180cm thick, in case of a direct commercial aircraft crash on it. (Author) [pt

  6. Seismic and wind vulnerability assessment for the GAR-13 global risk assessment

    Yamín Lacouture, Luis Eduardo; Hurtado Chaparro, Alvaro Ivan; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro; Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario

    2014-01-01

    A general methodology to evaluate vulnerability functions suitable for a probabilistic global risk assessment is proposed. The methodology is partially based in the methodological approach of the Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology (Hazus) developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The vulnerability assessment process considers the resolution, information and limitations established for both the hazard and exposure models adopted. Seismic and wind vulnerability function...

  7. A global assessment of wildfire risks to human and environmental water security

    Robinne, François-Nicolas; Parisien, Marc-André; Flannigan, Mike; Miller, Carol; Bladon, Kevin D.

    2017-04-01

    Extreme wildfire events extensively affect hydrosystem stability and generate an important threat to the reliability of the water supply for human and natural communities. While actively studied at the watershed scale, the development of a global vision of wildfire risk to water security has only been undertaken recently, pointing at potential water security concerns in an era of global changes. In order to address this concern, we propose a global-scale analysis of the wildfire risk to surface water supplies based on the Driving forces-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) framework. This framework relies on the cause-and-effect relationships existing between the five categories of the DPSIR chain. Based on the literature, we gathered an extensive set of spatial indicators relevant to fire-induced hydrological hazards and water consumption patterns by human and natural communities. Each indicator was assigned a DPSIR category. Then, we collapsed the information in each category using a principal component analysis in order to extract the most relevant pixel-based information provided by each spatial indicator. Finally, we compiled our five categories using an additive indexation process to produce a spatially-explicit index of the wildfire-water risk (WWR). For comparison purposes, we aggregated index scores by global hydrological regions, or hydrobelts, for analysis. Overall, our results show a distinct pattern of medium-to-high risk levels in areas where sizeable wildfire activity, water resources, and water consumption are concomitant, which mainly encompasses temperate and sub-tropical zones. A closer look at hydrobelts reveals differences in the factors driving the risk, with fire activity being the primary factor of risk in the circumboreal forest, and freshwater resource density being prevalent in tropical areas. We also identified major urban areas across the world whose source waters should be protected from extreme fire events, particularly when

  8. [Integrated Management Area of Vascular Risk: A new organisational model for global control of risk factors].

    Armario, P; Jericó, C; Vila, L; Freixa, R; Martin-Castillejos, C; Rotllan, M

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD), is a major cause of morbidity and mortality that increases the cost of care. Currently there is a low degree of control of the main cardiovascular risk factors, although we have a good therapeutic arsenal. To achieve the improvement of this reality, a good coordination and multidisciplinary participation are essential. The development of new organizational models such as the Integrated Management Area of Vascular Risk can facilitate the therapeutic harmonization and unification of the health messages offered by different levels of care, based on clinical practice guidelines, in order to provide patient-centred integrated care. Copyright © 2016 SEH-LELHA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  9. The risk of water scarcity at different levels of global warming

    Schewe, Jacob; Sharpe, Simon

    2015-04-01

    Water scarcity is a threat to human well-being and economic development in many countries today. Future climate change is expected to exacerbate the global water crisis by reducing renewable freshwater resources different world regions, many of which are already dry. Studies of future water scarcity often focus on most-likely, or highest-confidence, scenarios. However, multi-model projections of water resources reveal large uncertainty ranges, which are due to different types of processes (climate, hydrology, human) and are therefore not easy to reduce. Thus, central estimates or multi-model mean results may be insufficient to inform policy and management. Here we present an alternative, risk-based approach. We use an ensemble of multiple global climate and hydrological models to quantify the likelihood of crossing a given water scarcity threshold under different levels of global warming. This approach allows assessing the risk associated with any particular, pre-defined threshold (or magnitude of change that must be avoided), regardless of whether it lies in the center or in the tails of the uncertainty distribution. We show applications of this method on the country and river basin scale, illustrate the effects of societal processes on the resulting risk estimates, and discuss the further potential of this approach for research and stakeholder dialogue.

  10. Globalization and eating disorder risk: Peer influence, perceived social norms, and adolescent disordered eating in Fiji

    Gerbasi, Margaret E.; Richards, Lauren K.; Thomas, Jennifer J.; Agnew-Blais, Jessica C.; Thompson-Brenner, Heather; Gilman, Stephen E.; Becker, Anne E.

    2014-01-01

    Objective The increasing global health burden imposed by eating disorders warrants close examination of social exposures associated with globalization that potentially elevate risk during the critical developmental period of adolescence in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The study aim was to investigate the association of peer influence and perceived social norms with adolescent eating pathology in Fiji, a LMIC undergoing rapid social change. Method We measured peer influence on eating concerns (with the Inventory of Peer Influence on Eating Concerns; IPIEC), perceived peer norms associated with disordered eating and body concerns, perceived community cultural norms, and individual cultural orientations in a representative sample of school-going ethnic Fijian adolescent girls (n=523). We then developed a multivariable linear regression model to examine their relation to eating pathology (measured by the Eating Disorder Examination-Questionnaire; EDE-Q). Results We found independent and statistically significant associations between both IPIEC scores and our proxy for perceived social norms specific to disordered eating (both p disordered eating may elevate risk for disordered eating in Fiji, during the critical developmental period of adolescence. Replication and extension of these research findings in other populations undergoing rapid social transition—and where globalization is also influencing local social norms—may enrich etiologic models and inform strategies to mitigate risk. PMID:25139374

  11. Globalization and eating disorder risk: peer influence, perceived social norms, and adolescent disordered eating in Fiji.

    Gerbasi, Margaret E; Richards, Lauren K; Thomas, Jennifer J; Agnew-Blais, Jessica C; Thompson-Brenner, Heather; Gilman, Stephen E; Becker, Anne E

    2014-11-01

    The increasing global health burden imposed by eating disorders warrants close examination of social exposures associated with globalization that potentially elevate risk during the critical developmental period of adolescence in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The study aim was to investigate the association of peer influence and perceived social norms with adolescent eating pathology in Fiji, a LMIC undergoing rapid social change. We measured peer influence on eating concerns (with the Inventory of Peer Influence on Eating Concerns; IPIEC), perceived peer norms associated with disordered eating and body concerns, perceived community cultural norms, and individual cultural orientations in a representative sample of school-going ethnic Fijian adolescent girls (n = 523). We then developed a multivariable linear regression model to examine their relation to eating pathology (measured by the Eating Disorder Examination-Questionnaire; EDE-Q). We found independent and statistically significant associations between both IPIEC scores and our proxy for perceived social norms specific to disordered eating (both p peer influence as well as perceived social norms relevant to disordered eating may elevate risk for disordered eating in Fiji, during the critical developmental period of adolescence. Replication and extension of these research findings in other populations undergoing rapid social transition--and where globalization is also influencing local social norms--may enrich etiologic models and inform strategies to mitigate risk. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Economic growth, urbanization, globalization, and the risks of emerging infectious diseases in China: A review.

    Wu, Tong; Perrings, Charles; Kinzig, Ann; Collins, James P; Minteer, Ben A; Daszak, Peter

    2017-02-01

    Three interrelated world trends may be exacerbating emerging zoonotic risks: income growth, urbanization, and globalization. Income growth is associated with rising animal protein consumption in developing countries, which increases the conversion of wild lands to livestock production, and hence the probability of zoonotic emergence. Urbanization implies the greater concentration and connectedness of people, which increases the speed at which new infections are spread. Globalization-the closer integration of the world economy-has facilitated pathogen spread among countries through the growth of trade and travel. High-risk areas for the emergence and spread of infectious disease are where these three trends intersect with predisposing socioecological conditions including the presence of wild disease reservoirs, agricultural practices that increase contact between wildlife and livestock, and cultural practices that increase contact between humans, wildlife, and livestock. Such an intersection occurs in China, which has been a "cradle" of zoonoses from the Black Death to avian influenza and SARS. Disease management in China is thus critical to the mitigation of global zoonotic risks.

  13. Risk Assessment Method for Offshore Structure Based on Global Sensitivity Analysis

    Zou Tao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on global sensitivity analysis (GSA, this paper proposes a new risk assessment method for an offshore structure design. This method quantifies all the significances among random variables and their parameters at first. And by comparing the degree of importance, all minor factors would be negligible. Then, the global uncertainty analysis work would be simplified. Global uncertainty analysis (GUA is an effective way to study the complexity and randomness of natural events. Since field measured data and statistical results often have inevitable errors and uncertainties which lead to inaccurate prediction and analysis, the risk in the design stage of offshore structures caused by uncertainties in environmental loads, sea level, and marine corrosion must be taken into account. In this paper, the multivariate compound extreme value distribution model (MCEVD is applied to predict the extreme sea state of wave, current, and wind. The maximum structural stress and deformation of a Jacket platform are analyzed and compared with different design standards. The calculation result sufficiently demonstrates the new risk assessment method’s rationality and security.

  14. OpenCV for secret agents

    Howse, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    This book is for programmers who want to expand their skills by building fun, smart, and useful systems with OpenCV. The projects are ideal in helping you to think creatively about the uses of computer vision, natural user interfaces, and ubiquitous computers (in your home, car, and hand).

  15. AstroCV: Astronomy computer vision library

    González, Roberto E.; Muñoz, Roberto P.; Hernández, Cristian A.

    2018-04-01

    AstroCV processes and analyzes big astronomical datasets, and is intended to provide a community repository of high performance Python and C++ algorithms used for image processing and computer vision. The library offers methods for object recognition, segmentation and classification, with emphasis in the automatic detection and classification of galaxies.

  16. The global limits and population at risk of soil-transmitted helminth infections in 2010

    Pullan Rachel L

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Understanding the global limits of transmission of soil-transmitted helminth (STH species is essential for quantifying the population at-risk and the burden of disease. This paper aims to define these limits on the basis of environmental and socioeconomic factors, and additionally seeks to investigate the effects of urbanisation and economic development on STH transmission, and estimate numbers at-risk of infection with Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworm in 2010. Methods A total of 4,840 geo-referenced estimates of infection prevalence were abstracted from the Global Atlas of Helminth Infection and related to a range of environmental factors to delineate the biological limits of transmission. The relationship between STH transmission and urbanisation and economic development was investigated using high resolution population surfaces and country-level socioeconomic indicators, respectively. Based on the identified limits, the global population at risk of STH transmission in 2010 was estimated. Results High and low land surface temperature and extremely arid environments were found to limit STH transmission, with differential limits identified for each species. There was evidence that the prevalence of A. lumbricoides and of T. trichiura infection was statistically greater in peri-urban areas compared to urban and rural areas, whilst the prevalence of hookworm was highest in rural areas. At national levels, no clear socioeconomic correlates of transmission were identified, with the exception that little or no infection was observed for countries with a per capita gross domestic product greater than US$ 20,000. Globally in 2010, an estimated 5.3 billion people, including 1.0 billion school-aged children, lived in areas stable for transmission of at least one STH species, with 69% of these individuals living in Asia. A further 143 million (31.1 million school-aged children lived in areas of unstable

  17. Contribution of occupational risk factors to the global burden of disease - a summary of findings

    Fingerhut, M.; Driscoll, T.; Nelson, D.I.; Concha-Barrientos, M.; Punnett, L.; Pruss-Ustin, A.; Steenland, K.; Leigh, J.; Corvalan, C. [NIOSH, Cincinnati, OH (United States)

    2005-07-01

    The World Health Organization conducted a comparative risk assessment to ascertain the contributions of 26 risk factors to the global burden of disease. Five occupational risk factors accounted for an estimated 37% of back pain, 16% of hearing loss, 13% of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 11% of asthma, 9% of lung cancer, 8% of injuries, and 2% of leukemia worldwide. Virtually all cases of silicosis, asbestosis, and coal workers' pneumoconiosis were work-related. Contaminated sharps injuries accounted for 40% of hepatitis B, 40% of hepatitis C, and 4% of HIV/AlDS infections among health care workers. Data limitations, primarily in developing countries, prevented the inclusion of other major occupational risk factors. These selected occupational risks accounted for about 850,000 deaths and 24 million years of healthy life lost each year. The deaths due to these selected occupational risk factors constitute only 43% of the International Labour Organization's estimate of 2 million deaths worldwide due to work-related risks.

  18. Yield risks in global maize markets: Historical evidence and projections in key regions of the world

    Nelson B. Villoria

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Simultaneous worldwide crop failures stemming from a more unstable climate may reduce the scope for international trade to compensate food shortages and stabilize food prices across the various regions of the world. Understanding the effects of changes in crop productivity on global markets requires knowledge about the extent to which crop yields may be systematically related across producing and consuming centers. This short communication contributes to this knowledge by investigating the potential changes in the strength of two key sources of supply risks in global maize markets: yield variance and cross-country yield correlation. We focus on the largest producing and consuming countries of the world. We capitalize on yield projections from the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison project. Exploratory analysis of the skill of the underlying GGCMI models in reproducing key moments of the distribution of observed yields reveals that they overstate observed variances but faithfully reproduce observed patterns of cross-country correlations. We find no evidence of an increase in the degree of cross-country dependency of maize yields. We also find a higher incidence of what would be considered extremely low maize yields by present-time standards stemming from the projected downward trend in yields levels toward mid-century. The weak dependency of maize yields across countries, an the possibility of reducing the higher incidence of extremes through policies aimed to reverse the climate-induced downward trends in yields, suggest that international trade can become a valuable tool to ameliorate the effects of more unstable crop yields. Keywords: Extremely low yields, Maize markets, Food prices, Agricultural yields, Systemic risk in agriculture, Global agriculture, AgMIP, Global gridded crop model intercomparison

  19. Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management

    Carrão, Hugo; Naumann, Gustavo; Barbosa, Paulo

    2018-03-01

    Projections of drought hazard ( dH) changes have been mapped from five bias-corrected climate models and analyzed at the global level under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The motivation for this study is the observation that drought risk is increasing globally and the effective regulation of prevention and adaptation measures depends on dH magnitude and its distribution for the future. Based on the Weighted Anomaly of Standardized Precipitation index, dH changes have been assessed for mid-(2021-2050) and late-century (2071-2099). With a few exceptions, results show a likely increase in global dH between the historical years (1971-2000) and both future time periods under all RCPs. Notwithstanding this worsening trend, it was found that projections of dH changes for most regions are neither robust nor significant in the near-future. By the end of the century, greater increases are projected for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcing. Under RCP8.5, statistically significant dH changes emerge for global Mediterranean ecosystems and the Amazon region, which are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. Taken together, projections of dH changes point towards two dilemmas: (1) in the near-term, stake-holders are left worrying about projected increasing dH over large regions, but lack of actionable model agreement to take effective decisions related to local prevention and adaptation initiatives; (2) in the long-term, models demonstrate remarkable agreement, but stake-holders lack actionable knowledge to manage potential impacts far distant from actual human-dominated environments. We conclude that the major challenge for risk management is not to adapt human populations or their activities to dH changes, but to progress on global initiatives that mitigate their impacts in the whole carbon cycle by late-century.

  20. Analysis and modeling of wafer-level process variability in 28 nm FD-SOI using split C-V measurements

    Pradeep, Krishna; Poiroux, Thierry; Scheer, Patrick; Juge, André; Gouget, Gilles; Ghibaudo, Gérard

    2018-07-01

    This work details the analysis of wafer level global process variability in 28 nm FD-SOI using split C-V measurements. The proposed approach initially evaluates the native on wafer process variability using efficient extraction methods on split C-V measurements. The on-wafer threshold voltage (VT) variability is first studied and modeled using a simple analytical model. Then, a statistical model based on the Leti-UTSOI compact model is proposed to describe the total C-V variability in different bias conditions. This statistical model is finally used to study the contribution of each process parameter to the total C-V variability.

  1. A New Breed of Database System: Volcano Global Risk Identification and Analysis Project (VOGRIPA)

    Crosweller, H. S.; Sparks, R. S.; Siebert, L.

    2009-12-01

    VOGRIPA originated as part of the Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP) that is being co-ordinated from the Earth Institute of Columbia University under the auspices of the United Nations and World Bank. GRIP is a five-year programme aiming at improving global knowledge about risk from natural hazards and is part of the international response to the catastrophic 2004 Asian tsunami. VOGRIPA is also a formal IAVCEI project. The objectives of VOGRIPA are to create a global database of volcanic activity, hazards and vulnerability information that can be analysed to identify locations at high risk from volcanism, gaps in knowledge about hazards and risk, and will allow scientists and disaster managers at specific locations to analyse risk within a global context of systematic information. It is this added scope of risk and vulnerability as well as hazard which sets VOGRIPA apart from most previous databases. The University of Bristol is the central coordinating centre for the project, which is an international partnership including the Smithsonian Institution, the Geological Survey of Japan, the Earth Observatory of Singapore (Chris Newhall), the British Geological Survey, the University of Buffalo (SUNY) and Munich Re. The partnership is intended to grow and any individuals or institutions who are able to contribute resources to VOGRIPA objectives are welcome to participate. Work has already begun (funded principally by Munich Re) on populating a database of large magnitude explosive eruptions reaching back to the Quaternary, with extreme-value statistics being used to evaluate the magnitude-frequency relationship of such events, and also an assessment of how the quality of records affect the results. The following 4 years of funding from the European Research Council for VOGRIPA will be used to establish further international collaborations in order to develop different aspects of the database, with the data being accessible online once it is sufficiently

  2. Communicating global cardiovascular risk: are icon arrays better than numerical estimates in improving understanding, recall and perception of risk?

    Ruiz, Jorge G; Andrade, Allen D; Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Anam, Ramanakumar; Rodriguez, Remberto; Sharit, Joseph

    2013-12-01

    Experts recommend that adults have their global cardiovascular risk assessed. We investigated whether icon arrays increase understanding, recall, perception of CVR, and behavioral intent as compared with numerical information. Male outpatient veterans, at an intermediate to high cardiovascular risk participated in a randomized controlled trial of a computer tutorial presenting individualized risk. Message format was presented in 3 formats: percentages, frequencies, and frequencies with icon arrays. We assessed understanding immediately (T1) and recall at 20 min (T2) and 2 weeks (T3) after the intervention. We assessed perceptions of importance/seriousness, intent to adhere, and self-efficacy at T1. Self-reported adherence was assessed at T3. One-hundred and twenty male veterans participated. Age, education, race, health literacy and numeracy were comparable at baseline. There were no differences in understanding at T1 [p = .31] and recall at T3 [p = .10]. Accuracy was inferior with frequencies with icon arrays than percentages or frequencies at T2 [p ≤ .001]. There were no differences in perception of seriousness and importance for heart disease, behavioral intent, self-efficacy, actual adherence and satisfaction. Icon arrays may impair short-term recall of CVR. Icon arrays will not necessarily result in better understanding and recall of medical risk in all patients. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  3. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

    2016-10-08

    The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56

  4. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

    Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Alexander, Lily; Anderson, H Ross; Bachman, Victoria F; Biryukov, Stan; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Casey, Daniel; Coates, Matthew M; Cohen, Aaron; Delwiche, Kristen; Estep, Kara; Frostad, Joseph J; Astha, K C; Kyu, Hmwe H; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Ng, Marie; Slepak, Erica Leigh; Thomas, Bernadette A; Wagner, Joseph; Aasvang, Gunn Marit; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Ayse; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abera, Semaw F; Aboyans, Victor; Abraham, Biju; Abraham, Jerry Puthenpurakal; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E; Aburto, Tania C; Achoki, Tom; Adelekan, Ademola; Adofo, Koranteng; Adou, Arsène K; Adsuar, José C; Afshin, Ashkan; Agardh, Emilie E; Al Khabouri, Mazin J; Al Lami, Faris H; Alam, Sayed Saidul; Alasfoor, Deena; Albittar, Mohammed I; Alegretti, Miguel A; Aleman, Alicia V; Alemu, Zewdie A; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Alhabib, Samia; Ali, Raghib; Ali, Mohammed K; Alla, François; Allebeck, Peter; Allen, Peter J; Alsharif, Ubai; Alvarez, Elena; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amankwaa, Adansi A; Amare, Azmeraw T; Ameh, Emmanuel A; Ameli, Omid; Amini, Heresh; Ammar, Walid; Anderson, Benjamin O; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Anwari, Palwasha; Argeseanu Cunningham, Solveig; Arnlöv, Johan; Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic; Artaman, Al; Asghar, Rana J; Assadi, Reza; Atkins, Lydia S; Atkinson, Charles; Avila, Marco A; Awuah, Baffour; Badawi, Alaa; Bahit, Maria C; Bakfalouni, Talal; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Balalla, Shivanthi; Balu, Ravi Kumar; Banerjee, Amitava; Barber, Ryan M; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L; Barquera, Simon; Barregard, Lars; Barrero, Lope H; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Basto-Abreu, Ana C; Basu, Arindam; Basu, Sanjay; Basulaiman, Mohammed O; Batis Ruvalcaba, Carolina; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Bekele, Tolesa; Bell, Michelle L; Benjet, Corina; Bennett, Derrick A; Benzian, Habib; Bernabé, Eduardo; Beyene, Tariku J; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhalla, Ashish; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Bikbov, Boris; Bin Abdulhak, Aref A; Blore, Jed D; Blyth, Fiona M; Bohensky, Megan A; Bora Başara, Berrak; Borges, Guilherme; Bornstein, Natan M; Bose, Dipan; Boufous, Soufiane; Bourne, Rupert R; Brainin, Michael; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas J; Brenner, Hermann; Briggs, Adam D M; Broday, David M; Brooks, Peter M; Bruce, Nigel G; Brugha, Traolach S; Brunekreef, Bert; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Bui, Linh N; Bukhman, Gene; Bulloch, Andrew G; Burch, Michael; Burney, Peter G J; Campos-Nonato, Ismael R; Campuzano, Julio C; Cantoral, Alejandra J; Caravanos, Jack; Cárdenas, Rosario; Cardis, Elisabeth; Carpenter, David O; Caso, Valeria; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A; Castro, Ruben E; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Cavalleri, Fiorella; Çavlin, Alanur; Chadha, Vineet K; Chang, Jung-Chen; Charlson, Fiona J; Chen, Honglei; Chen, Wanqing; Chen, Zhengming; Chiang, Peggy P; Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christophi, Costas A; Chuang, Ting-Wu; Chugh, Sumeet S; Cirillo, Massimo; Claßen, Thomas K D; Colistro, Valentina; Colomar, Mercedes; Colquhoun, Samantha M; Contreras, Alejandra G; Cooper, Cyrus; Cooperrider, Kimberly; Cooper, Leslie T; Coresh, Josef; Courville, Karen J; Criqui, Michael H; Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia; Damsere-Derry, James; Danawi, Hadi; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Dargan, Paul I; Davis, Adrian; Davitoiu, Dragos V; Dayama, Anand; de Castro, E Filipa; De la Cruz-Góngora, Vanessa; De Leo, Diego; de Lima, Graça; Degenhardt, Louisa; del Pozo-Cruz, Borja; Dellavalle, Robert P; Deribe, Kebede; Derrett, Sarah; Des Jarlais, Don C; Dessalegn, Muluken; deVeber, Gabrielle A; Devries, Karen M; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Dherani, Mukesh K; Dicker, Daniel; Ding, Eric L; Dokova, Klara; Dorsey, E Ray; Driscoll, Tim R; Duan, Leilei; Durrani, Adnan M; Ebel, Beth E; Ellenbogen, Richard G; Elshrek, Yousef M; Endres, Matthias; Ermakov, Sergey P; Erskine, Holly E; Eshrati, Babak; Esteghamati, Alireza; Fahimi, Saman; Faraon, Emerito Jose A; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fay, Derek F J; Feigin, Valery L; Feigl, Andrea B; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Ferrari, Alize J; Ferri, Cleusa P; Flaxman, Abraham D; Fleming, Thomas D; Foigt, Nataliya; Foreman, Kyle J; Paleo, Urbano Fra; Franklin, Richard C; Gabbe, Belinda; Gaffikin, Lynne; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Gamkrelidze, Amiran; Gankpé, Fortuné G; Gansevoort, Ron T; García-Guerra, Francisco A; Gasana, Evariste; Geleijnse, Johanna M; Gessner, Bradford D; Gething, Pete; Gibney, Katherine B; Gillum, Richard F; Ginawi, Ibrahim A M; Giroud, Maurice; Giussani, Giorgia; Goenka, Shifalika; Goginashvili, Ketevan; Gomez Dantes, Hector; Gona, Philimon; Gonzalez de Cosio, Teresita; González-Castell, Dinorah; Gotay, Carolyn C; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N; Guerrant, Richard L; Gugnani, Harish C; Guillemin, Francis; Gunnell, David; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gutiérrez, Reyna A; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hagan, Holly; Hagstromer, Maria; Halasa, Yara A; Hamadeh, Randah R; Hammami, Mouhanad; Hankey, Graeme J; Hao, Yuantao; Harb, Hilda L; Haregu, Tilahun Nigatu; Haro, Josep Maria; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hay, Simon I; Hedayati, Mohammad T; Heredia-Pi, Ileana B; Hernandez, Lucia; Heuton, Kyle R; Heydarpour, Pouria; Hijar, Martha; Hoek, Hans W; Hoffman, Howard J; Hornberger, John C; Hosgood, H Dean; Hoy, Damian G; Hsairi, Mohamed; Hu, Guoqing; Hu, Howard; Huang, Cheng; Huang, John J; Hubbell, Bryan J; Huiart, Laetitia; Husseini, Abdullatif; Iannarone, Marissa L; Iburg, Kim M; Idrisov, Bulat T; Ikeda, Nayu; Innos, Kaire; Inoue, Manami; Islami, Farhad; Ismayilova, Samaya; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Jansen, Henrica A; Jarvis, Deborah L; Jassal, Simerjot K; Jauregui, Alejandra; Jayaraman, Sudha; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jensen, Paul N; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Fan; Jiang, Guohong; Jiang, Ying; Jonas, Jost B; Juel, Knud; Kan, Haidong; Kany Roseline, Sidibe S; Karam, Nadim E; Karch, André; Karema, Corine K; Karthikeyan, Ganesan; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Kazi, Dhruv S; Kemp, Andrew H; Kengne, Andre P; Keren, Andre; Khader, Yousef S; Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan; Khan, Ejaz A; Khang, Young-Ho; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Khonelidze, Irma; Kieling, Christian; Kim, Daniel; Kim, Sungroul; Kim, Yunjin; Kimokoti, Ruth W; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kinge, Jonas M; Kissela, Brett M; Kivipelto, Miia; Knibbs, Luke D; Knudsen, Ann Kristin; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kose, M Rifat; Kosen, Soewarta; Kraemer, Alexander; Kravchenko, Michael; Krishnaswami, Sanjay; Kromhout, Hans; Ku, Tiffany; Kuate Defo, Barthelemy; Kucuk Bicer, Burcu; Kuipers, Ernst J; Kulkarni, Chanda; Kulkarni, Veena S; Kumar, G Anil; Kwan, Gene F; Lai, Taavi; Lakshmana Balaji, Arjun; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lallukka, Tea; Lam, Hilton; Lan, Qing; Lansingh, Van C; Larson, Heidi J; Larsson, Anders; Laryea, Dennis O; Lavados, Pablo M; Lawrynowicz, Alicia E; Leasher, Janet L; Lee, Jong-Tae; Leigh, James; Leung, Ricky; Levi, Miriam; Li, Yichong; Li, Yongmei; Liang, Juan; Liang, Xiaofeng; Lim, Stephen S; Lindsay, M Patrice; Lipshultz, Steven E; Liu, Shiwei; Liu, Yang; Lloyd, Belinda K; Logroscino, Giancarlo; London, Stephanie J; Lopez, Nancy; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lozano, Rafael; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Ma, Jixiang; Ma, Stefan; Machado, Vasco M P; MacIntyre, Michael F; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Mahdi, Abbas A; Majdan, Marek; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mangalam, Srikanth; Mapoma, Christopher C; Marape, Marape; Marcenes, Wagner; Margolis, David J; Margono, Christopher; Marks, Guy B; Martin, Randall V; Marzan, Melvin B; Mashal, Mohammad T; Masiye, Felix; Mason-Jones, Amanda J; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Matzopoulos, Richard; Mayosi, Bongani M; Mazorodze, Tasara T; McKay, Abigail C; McKee, Martin; McLain, Abigail; Meaney, Peter A; Medina, Catalina; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola; Mekonnen, Wubegzier; Melaku, Yohannes A; Meltzer, Michele; Memish, Ziad A; Mendoza, Walter; Mensah, George A; Meretoja, Atte; Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary; Micha, Renata; Miller, Ted R; Mills, Edward J; Misganaw, Awoke; Mishra, Santosh; Mohamed Ibrahim, Norlinah; Mohammad, Karzan A; Mokdad, Ali H; Mola, Glen L; Monasta, Lorenzo; Montañez Hernandez, Julio C; Montico, Marcella; Moore, Ami R; Morawska, Lidia; Mori, Rintaro; Moschandreas, Joanna; Moturi, Wilkister N; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Mueller, Ulrich O; Mukaigawara, Mitsuru; Mullany, Erin C; Murthy, Kinnari S; Naghavi, Mohsen; Nahas, Ziad; Naheed, Aliya; Naidoo, Kovin S; Naldi, Luigi; Nand, Devina; Nangia, Vinay; Narayan, K M Venkat; Nash, Denis; Neal, Bruce; Nejjari, Chakib; Neupane, Sudan P; Newton, Charles R; Ngalesoni, Frida N; Ngirabega, Jean de Dieu; Nguyen, Grant; Nguyen, Nhung T; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J; Nisar, Muhammad I; Nogueira, José R; Nolla, Joan M; Nolte, Sandra; Norheim, Ole F; Norman, Rosana E; Norrving, Bo; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Oh, In-Hwan; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Olusanya, Bolajoko O; Omer, Saad B; Opio, John Nelson; Orozco, Ricardo; Pagcatipunan, Rodolfo S; Pain, Amanda W; Pandian, Jeyaraj D; Panelo, Carlo Irwin A; Papachristou, Christina; Park, Eun-Kee; Parry, Charles D; Paternina Caicedo, Angel J; Patten, Scott B; Paul, Vinod K; Pavlin, Boris I; Pearce, Neil; Pedraza, Lilia S; Pedroza, Andrea; Pejin Stokic, Ljiljana; Pekericli, Ayfer; Pereira, David M; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio; Perez-Ruiz, Fernando; Perico, Norberto; Perry, Samuel A L; Pervaiz, Aslam; Pesudovs, Konrad; Peterson, Carrie B; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael R; Phua, Hwee Pin; Plass, Dietrich; Poenaru, Dan; Polanczyk, Guilherme V; Polinder, Suzanne; Pond, Constance D; Pope, C Arden; Pope, Daniel; Popova, Svetlana; Pourmalek, Farshad; Powles, John; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Prasad, Noela M; Qato, Dima M; Quezada, Amado D; Quistberg, D Alex A; Racapé, Lionel; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi, Kazem; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Raju, Murugesan; Rakovac, Ivo; Rana, Saleem M; Rao, Mayuree; Razavi, Homie; Reddy, K Srinath; Refaat, Amany H; Rehm, Jürgen; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Ribeiro, Antonio L; Riccio, Patricia M; Richardson, Lee; Riederer, Anne; Robinson, Margaret; Roca, Anna; Rodriguez, Alina; Rojas-Rueda, David; Romieu, Isabelle; Ronfani, Luca; Room, Robin; Roy, Nobhojit; Ruhago, George M; Rushton, Lesley; Sabin, Nsanzimana; Sacco, Ralph L; Saha, Sukanta; Sahathevan, Ramesh; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali; Salomon, Joshua A; Salvo, Deborah; Sampson, Uchechukwu K; Sanabria, Juan R; Sanchez, Luz Maria; Sánchez-Pimienta, Tania G; Sanchez-Riera, Lidia; Sandar, Logan; Santos, Itamar S; Sapkota, Amir; Satpathy, Maheswar; Saunders, James E; Sawhney, Monika; Saylan, Mete I; Scarborough, Peter; Schmidt, Jürgen C; Schneider, Ione J C; Schöttker, Ben; Schwebel, David C; Scott, James G; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Serdar, Berrin; Servan-Mori, Edson E; Shaddick, Gavin; Shahraz, Saeid; Levy, Teresa Shamah; Shangguan, Siyi; She, Jun; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Hwashin H; Shinohara, Yukito; Shiri, Rahman; Shishani, Kawkab; Shiue, Ivy; Sigfusdottir, Inga D; Silberberg, Donald H; Simard, Edgar P; Sindi, Shireen; Singh, Abhishek; Singh, Gitanjali M; Singh, Jasvinder A; Skirbekk, Vegard; Sliwa, Karen; Soljak, Michael; Soneji, Samir; Søreide, Kjetil; Soshnikov, Sergey; Sposato, Luciano A; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T; Stapelberg, Nicolas J C; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki; Steckling, Nadine; Stein, Dan J; Stein, Murray B; Stephens, Natalie; Stöckl, Heidi; Straif, Kurt; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Sturua, Lela; Sunguya, Bruno F; Swaminathan, Soumya; Swaroop, Mamta; Sykes, Bryan L; Tabb, Karen M; Takahashi, Ken; Talongwa, Roberto T; Tandon, Nikhil; Tanne, David; Tanner, Marcel; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Te Ao, Braden J; Teixeira, Carolina M; Téllez Rojo, Martha M; Terkawi, Abdullah S; Texcalac-Sangrador, José Luis; Thackway, Sarah V; Thomson, Blake; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L; Thrift, Amanda G; Thurston, George D; Tillmann, Taavi; Tobollik, Myriam; Tonelli, Marcello; Topouzis, Fotis; Towbin, Jeffrey A; Toyoshima, Hideaki; Traebert, Jefferson; Tran, Bach X; Trasande, Leonardo; Trillini, Matias; Trujillo, Ulises; Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala; Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis; Tuzcu, Emin Murat; Uchendu, Uche S; Ukwaja, Kingsley N; Uzun, Selen B; van de Vijver, Steven; Van Dingenen, Rita; van Gool, Coen H; van Os, Jim; Varakin, Yuri Y; Vasankari, Tommi J; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria N; Vavilala, Monica S; Veerman, Lennert J; Velasquez-Melendez, Gustavo; Venketasubramanian, N; Vijayakumar, Lakshmi; Villalpando, Salvador; Violante, Francesco S; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Wagner, Gregory R; Waller, Stephen G; Wallin, Mitchell T; Wan, Xia; Wang, Haidong; Wang, JianLi; Wang, Linhong; Wang, Wenzhi; Wang, Yanping; Warouw, Tati S; Watts, Charlotte H; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G; Werdecker, Andrea; Wessells, K Ryan; Westerman, Ronny; Whiteford, Harvey A; Wilkinson, James D; Williams, Hywel C; Williams, Thomas N; Woldeyohannes, Solomon M; Wolfe, Charles D A; Wong, John Q; Woolf, Anthony D; Wright, Jonathan L; Wurtz, Brittany; Xu, Gelin; Yan, Lijing L; Yang, Gonghuan; Yano, Yuichiro; Ye, Pengpeng; Yenesew, Muluken; Yentür, Gökalp K; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Younis, Mustafa Z; Younoussi, Zourkaleini; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaki, Maysaa E; Zhao, Yong; Zheng, Yingfeng; Zhou, Maigeng; Zhu, Jun; Zhu, Shankuan; Zou, Xiaonong; Zunt, Joseph R; Lopez, Alan D; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J

    2015-12-05

    The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval

  5. Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data

    Muis, S.; Güneralp, B.; Jongman, B.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Ward, P.J.

    2015-01-01

    An accurate understanding of flood risk and its drivers is crucial for effective risk management. Detailed risk projections, including uncertainties, are however rarely available, particularly in developing countries. This paper presents a method that integrates recent advances in global-scale

  6. Nonconsensual clinical trials: a foreseeable risk of offshoring under global corporatism.

    Spielman, Bethany

    2015-03-01

    This paper explores the connection of offshoring and outsourcing to nonconsensual global pharmaceutical trials in low-income countries. After discussing reasons why the topic of nonconsensual offshored clinical trials may be overlooked in bioethics literature, I suggest that when pharmaceutical corporations offshore clinical trials today, nonconsensual experiments are often foreseeable and not simply the result of aberrant ethical conduct by a few individuals. Offshoring of clinical trials is structured so that experiments can be presented as health care in a unique form of outsourcing from the host country to pharmaceutical corporations. Bioethicists' assessments of the risks and potential benefits of offshore corporate pharmaceutical trials should therefore systematically include not only the hoped for benefits and the risks of the experimental drug but also the risk that subjects will not have consented, as well as the broader international consequences of nonconsensual experimentation.

  7. The Limbic-Prefrontal Network Modulated by Electroacupuncture at CV4 and CV12

    Jiliang Fang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available fMRI studies showed that acupuncture could induce hemodynamic changes in brain networks. Many of these studies focused on whether specific acupoints could activate specific brain regions and were often limited to manual acupuncture at acupoints on the limbs. In this fMRI study, we investigated acupuncture's modulation effects on brain functional networks by electroacupuncture (EA at acupoints on the midline of abdomen. Acupoints Guanyuan (CV4 and Zhongwan (CV12 were stimulated in 21 healthy volunteers. The needling sensations, brain activation, and functional connectivity were studied. We found that the limbic-prefrontal functional network was deactivated by EA at CV4 and CV12. More importantly, the local functional connectivity was significantly changed during EA stimulation, and the change persisted during the period after the stimulation. Although minor differences existed, both acupoints similarly modulated the limbic-prefrontal functional network, which is overlapped with the functional circuits associated with emotional and cognitive regulation.

  8. Effect of Sodium Cyanide on Wheat (Triticum durum cv. Altar and T. aestivum cv. Cumhuriyet)

    Gemici, Meliha; Karshenass, A.M.; Tan, Kit

    2008-01-01

    The effect of sodium cyanide on the morphology of stem, leaves and grain yields of Triticum durum cv. Altar and Triticum aestivum cv. Cumhuriyet grown under glass was studied. Seeds were planted in six different sets of pots containing ordinary garden soil. After formation of the first leaves......, the first set was used as the control and watered using ordinary bottled water sold commercially. The other five sets with T. durum cv. Altar and T. aestivum cv. Cumhuriyet seedlings were additionally watered with various concentrations of sodium cyanide, the test-quantity used being 10-50 mg/L. Growth...... of individual plants was monitored until grain production. It was found that the sodium cyanide concentrations in the feed solutions affected plant stature, with the plants becoming progressively dwarfed with increasing dosage. Anomalies in the morphological and anatomical structure of the plant were also noted...

  9. Creating a spatially-explicit index: a method for assessing the global wildfire-water risk

    Robinne, François-Nicolas; Parisien, Marc-André; Flannigan, Mike; Miller, Carol; Bladon, Kevin D.

    2017-04-01

    The wildfire-water risk (WWR) has been defined as the potential for wildfires to adversely affect water resources that are important for downstream ecosystems and human water needs for adequate water quantity and quality, therefore compromising the security of their water supply. While tools and methods are numerous for watershed-scale risk analysis, the development of a toolbox for the large-scale evaluation of the wildfire risk to water security has only started recently. In order to provide managers and policy-makers with an adequate tool, we implemented a method for the spatial analysis of the global WWR based on the Driving forces-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) framework. This framework relies on the cause-and-effect relationships existing between the five categories of the DPSIR chain. As this approach heavily relies on data, we gathered an extensive set of spatial indicators relevant to fire-induced hydrological hazards and water consumption patterns by human and natural communities. When appropriate, we applied a hydrological routing function to our indicators in order to simulate downstream accumulation of potentially harmful material. Each indicator was then assigned a DPSIR category. We collapsed the information in each category using a principal component analysis in order to extract the most relevant pixel-based information provided by each spatial indicator. Finally, we compiled our five categories using an additive indexation process to produce a spatially-explicit index of the WWR. A thorough sensitivity analysis has been performed in order to understand the relationship between the final risk values and the spatial pattern of each category used during the indexation. For comparison purposes, we aggregated index scores by global hydrological regions, or hydrobelts, to get a sense of regional DPSIR specificities. This rather simple method does not necessitate the use of complex physical models and provides a scalable and efficient tool

  10. Modelling global distribution, risk and mitigation strategies of floating plastic pollution

    van Sebille, Erik; Wilcox, Chris; Sherman, Peter; Hardesty, Britta Denise; Lavender Law, Kara

    2016-04-01

    Microplastic debris floating at the ocean surface can harm marine life. Understanding the severity of this harm requires knowledge of plastic abundance and distributions. Dozens of expeditions measuring microplastics have been carried out since the 1970s, but they have primarily focused on the North Pacific and North Atlantic accumulation zones, with much sparser coverage elsewhere. Here, we use the largest dataset of microplastic measurements assembled to date to assess the confidence we can have in global estimates of microplastic abundance and mass. We use a rigorous statistical framework to standardise a global dataset of plastic marine debris measured using surface-trawling plankton nets and couple this with three different ocean circulation models to spatially interpolate the observations. Our estimates show that the accumulated number of microplastic particles in 2014 ranges from 15 to 51 trillion particles, weighing between 93 and 236 thousand metric tons. A large fraction of the uncertainty in these estimates comes from sparse sampling in coastal and Southern Hemisphere regions. We then use this global distribution of small floating plastic debris to map out where in the ocean the risk to marine life (in particular seabirds and plankton growth) is greatest, using a quantitative risk framework. We show that the largest risk occurs not necessarily in regions of high plastic concentration, but rather in regions of extensive foraging with medium-high plastic concentrations such as coastal upwelling regions and the Southern Ocean. Finally, we use the estimates of distribution to investigate where in the ocean plastic can most optimally be removed, assuming hypothetical clean-up booms following the ideas from The Ocean Cleanup project. We show that mitigation of the plastic problem can most aptly be done near coastlines, particularly in Asia, rather than in the centres of the gyres. Based on these results, we propose more focus on the coastal zones when

  11. The global geographical overlap of aflatoxin and hepatitis C: Controlling risk factors for liver cancer worldwide

    Palliyaguru, Dushani L.; Wu, Felicia

    2012-01-01

    About 85% of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC, liver cancer) cases occur in low-income countries, where the risk factors of dietary aflatoxin exposure and chronic hepatitis B and C (HBV and HCV) viral infection are common. While studies have shown synergism between aflatoxin and HBV in causing HCC, much less is known about whether aflatoxin and HCV synergize similarly. From an exposure perspective, we examine whether there is a geographical overlap in populations worldwide exposed to high dietary aflatoxin levels and with high HCV prevalence. While HCV is one of the most important risk factors for HCC in high-income nations (where aflatoxin exposure is low), we find that HCV prevalence is much higher in Africa and Asia, where aflatoxin exposure is also high. However, within a given world region, there are some inconsistencies regarding exposure and cancer risk. Therefore, there is a need to control risk factors such as aflatoxin and hepatitis viruses in a cost-effective manner to prevent global HCC, while continuing to evaluate biological mechanisms by which these risk factors interact to increase HCC risk. PMID:23281740

  12. Of Malthus and Methuselah: does longevity treatment aggravate global catastrophic risks?

    Jebari, Karim

    2014-12-01

    Global catastrophic risk is a term that refers to the risk of the occurrence of an event that kills at least millions of people across several continents. While it has been argued by a number of scholars that one major potential risk comes from technology, the obscure nature of future technologies makes it difficult to utilize traditional probabilistic risk for the meaningful study of these risks. This article describes an alternative approach and applies it to a research program that has attracted a considerable amount of resources recently: namely longevity research. The aim of this research is to delay or reverse the ageing process. This article argues that this research program is much more risky or less beneficial than its proponents argue. In particular, they tend to underestimate the concerns associated with the potentially drastic population growth that longevity treatment could cause. The ethical benefit often ascribed to longevity treatment is that such treatment would add more subjective life-years that are worth living. However, in light of contemporary environmental problems, such an increase of the human population might be reckless. Drastically reducing fertility to reduce risks associated with environmental stress would make the benefits of such technology much less compelling.

  13. Of Malthus and Methuselah: does longevity treatment aggravate global catastrophic risks?

    Jebari, Karim

    2014-01-01

    Global catastrophic risk is a term that refers to the risk of the occurrence of an event that kills at least millions of people across several continents. While it has been argued by a number of scholars that one major potential risk comes from technology, the obscure nature of future technologies makes it difficult to utilize traditional probabilistic risk for the meaningful study of these risks. This article describes an alternative approach and applies it to a research program that has attracted a considerable amount of resources recently: namely longevity research. The aim of this research is to delay or reverse the ageing process. This article argues that this research program is much more risky or less beneficial than its proponents argue. In particular, they tend to underestimate the concerns associated with the potentially drastic population growth that longevity treatment could cause. The ethical benefit often ascribed to longevity treatment is that such treatment would add more subjective life-years that are worth living. However, in light of contemporary environmental problems, such an increase of the human population might be reckless. Drastically reducing fertility to reduce risks associated with environmental stress would make the benefits of such technology much less compelling. (invited comment)

  14. [Psychosis, cardiovascular risk and associated mortality: are we on the right track?].

    Castillo Sánchez, Miguel; Fàbregas Escurriola, Mireia; Bergè Baquero, Daniel; Goday Arno, Albert; Vallès Callol, Joan Antoni

    2014-01-01

    Patients with psychotic disorders have a higher risk of early mortality. In addition to unnatural causes (accidents, suicide), death due to cardiovascular (CV) reasons is two to four times more prevalent in these patients than in the general population. This non-systematic review of MEDLINE aims to clarify the role of all the determining factors are involved. Psychotic disorders are related to unhealthy life habits such as smoking, poor diet and physical inactivity. Neuroleptic drugs have also been studied as triggers of obesity and metabolic syndrome. Therefore, psychotic patients seem predisposed to suffer from several of the «classic» CV risk factors. It is not surprising that their scores on the CV risk scales (Framingham, SCORE) are higher than the general population. We also found publications that showed poorer management of primary and secondary prevention of CV disease. In addition, some biochemical factors (plasma levels of cortisol, ACTH, homocysteine, PCR) may indicate a vulnerability in psychosis per se, as well as the findings on hyperglycemia and insulin resistance in psychotic "drug naive" patients. These "non-classical" factors could alter the validity of CV risk scales designed for the general population. Furthermore, antipsychotic drugs could control intrinsic factors of psychosis (they have shown to reduce global mortality), and their role in CV mortality is not clear. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. y SEA. All rights reserved.

  15. A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion

    Oakleaf, James R.; Kennedy, Christina M.; Baruch-Mordo, Sharon; West, Paul C.; Gerber, James S.; Jarvis, Larissa; Kiesecker, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2) and could result in half of the world’s biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth’s at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature. PMID:26445282

  16. The double burden of neoliberalism? Noncommunicable disease policies and the global political economy of risk.

    Glasgow, Sara; Schrecker, Ted

    2016-05-01

    The growing prevalence of NCDs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is now recognized as one of the major global health policy issues of the early 21st century. Current official approaches reflect ambivalence about how health policy should approach the social determinants of health identified by the WHO Commission on the topic that released its report in 2008, and in particular the role of macro-scale economic and social processes. Authoritative framing of options for NCD prevention in advance of the September, 2011 UN high-level meeting on NCDs arguably relied on a selective reading of the scientific (including social scientific) evidence, and foregrounded a limited number of risk factors defined in terms of individual behavior: tobacco use, unhealthy diet, alcohol (ab)use and physical inactivity. The effect was to reproduce at a transnational level the individualization of responsibility for health that characterizes most health promotion initiatives in high-income countries, ignoring both the limited control that many people have over their exposure to these risk factors and the contribution of macro-scale processes like trade liberalization and the marketing activities of transnational corporations to the global burden of NCDs. An alternative perspective focuses on "the inequitable distribution of power, money, and resources" described by the WHO Commission, and the ways in which policies that address those inequities can avoid unintentional incorporation of neoliberal constructions of risk and responsibility. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. The Risk Management Functions in the Conditions of Globalization: Case Study of the Republic of Serbia

    Zlatija Jelenković

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Globalization, which represents an important transmission mechanism of the crisis, has led to the necessity for controlling various risks of business, setting a new line of management in companies, regardless of the main business activity they are engaged in. The economic crisis in general, and especially the global financial crises (2007 and the present one led to bankruptcy, and thus to loss of funds of many businesses and individuals. Therefore, it was necessary, on the one hand, to ensure confidence in the financial system and to maintain its stability. On the other hand, the development of corporate governance and separation of functions of ownership and management insisted on the creation of functions that directly report to the owners of capital, such as risk management and internal audit. The value of this paper is in emphasizing the new management function and raising awareness of the scientific public and businesses about the need for introduction of risk management functions in order to facilitate effective management of enterprises, although the survey (2012-2015 has shown that the existence of legal obligations, in this regard penal policy, is the only thing that effectively establishes and promotes this area.

  18. A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion.

    James R Oakleaf

    Full Text Available A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2 and could result in half of the world's biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth's at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature.

  19. Assessment of Costs for a Global Climate Fund Against Public Sector Disaster Risks

    Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Mechler, Reinhard; Pflug, Georg; Williges, Keith

    2013-04-01

    National governments are key actors in managing climate variability and change, yet, many countries, faced with exhausted tax bases, high levels of indebtedness and limited donor assistance, have been unable to raise sufficient and timely capital to replace or repair damaged assets and restore livelihoods following major disasters exacerbating the impacts of disaster shocks on poverty and development. For weather extremes, which form a subset of the adaptation challenge and are supposed to increase in intensity and frequency with a changing climate, we conduct an assessment of the costs of managing and financing today's public sector risks on a global scale for more than 180 countries. A countries financial vulnerability is defined as a function of its financial resilience and its exposure to disaster risk. While disaster risk is estimated in terms of asset loss distributions based on catastrophe modeling approaches, financial resilience is operationalized as the public sector's ability to pay for relief to the affected population and support the reconstruction of affected assets and infrastructure for a given event. We consider governments financially vulnerable to disasters if they cannot access sufficient funding after a disaster to cover their liabilities. We operationalize this concept by the term resource gap, which we define the net loss associated with a disaster event after exhausting all possible ex-post and ex ante financing sources. Extending this approach for all possible disaster events, the risk that a resource gap will occur over a given time-span can be calculated for each country individually and dependent on the risk level different risk instruments may have to be applied. Furthermore, our estimates may inform decisions pertaining to a "climate insurance fund" absorbing "high level" country risks exceeding the ability of any given country to pay in the case of an extreme event. Our estimates relate to today's climate, yet we suggest that

  20. CV controls from design to operation

    Blanc, D

    2002-01-01

    The cooling and Ventilation (CV) group has emphasised the need to redefine its organisational structure at the end of 98. The main objective of this operation was to ensure the CV group to be more competitive and efficient through the growing tasks of the LHC projects. The main evolution given to this reorganisation is that the new structure is more project oriented and then operates on three distinct axes: Design, Work and Operation. Process control project management requires a complete and early interaction and participation of all the actors involved. This procedure to be efficient and constructive must be considered and performed not only during the design stage but along the project planning phases and must go beyond the completion work including the process control operation activity. The paper explains the present project management for process control. It describes the present constraints and gives suggestions to a different approach to these projects to improve performances and efficiency of a contr...

  1. Assessment of global risk: a foundation for a new, better definition of hypertension.

    Giles, Thomas D

    2006-08-01

    The prevalence of individuals with increased blood pressure (BP) is growing. A greater understanding of the various pathogenetic mechanisms of hypertension and associated BP increases would provide a better strategy for preventing and treating this condition. Hypertension is strongly associated with other cardiovascular risk factors. Additionally, there is no threshold of BP >115/70 mm Hg that identifies cardiovascular risk (i.e., risk is linear and doubles for each 20/10-mm Hg BP rise). These insights have led a group of hypertension experts to propose a new definition of hypertension as "a progressive cardiovascular syndrome arising from complex and interrelated etiologies," which features early markers that are "often present before blood pressure elevation is sustained." Early cardiovascular markers include widened pulse pressure, left ventricular hypertrophy, increased arterial stiffness, endothelial dysfunction, and microalbuminuria. Importantly, antihypertensive treatment for patients with prehypertension (systolic BP of 120-139 mm Hg or diastolic BP of 80-89 mm Hg) has recently been shown to prevent the development of frank hypertension. This revision of the definition of hypertension and the need to assess BP levels in the context of global cardiovascular risk should lead to earlier detection of at-risk patients.

  2. Characterization of vascular disease risk in postmenopausal women and its association with cognitive performance.

    N Maritza Dowling

    Full Text Available While global measures of cardiovascular (CV risk are used to guide prevention and treatment decisions, these estimates fail to account for the considerable interindividual variability in pre-clinical risk status. This study investigated heterogeneity in CV risk factor profiles and its association with demographic, genetic, and cognitive variables.A latent profile analysis was applied to data from 727 recently postmenopausal women enrolled in the Kronos Early Estrogen Prevention Study (KEEPS. Women were cognitively healthy, within three years of their last menstrual period, and free of current or past CV disease. Education level, apolipoprotein E ε4 allele (APOE4, ethnicity, and age were modeled as predictors of latent class membership. The association between class membership, characterizing CV risk profiles, and performance on five cognitive factors was examined. A supervised random forest algorithm with a 10-fold cross-validation estimator was used to test accuracy of CV risk classification.The best-fitting model generated two distinct phenotypic classes of CV risk 62% of women were "low-risk" and 38% "high-risk". Women classified as low-risk outperformed high-risk women on language and mental flexibility tasks (p = 0.008 and a global measure of cognition (p = 0.029. Women with a college degree or above were more likely to be in the low-risk class (OR = 1.595, p = 0.044. Older age and a Hispanic ethnicity increased the probability of being at high-risk (OR = 1.140, p = 0.002; OR = 2.622, p = 0.012; respectively. The prevalence rate of APOE-ε4 was higher in the high-risk class compared with rates in the low-risk class.Among recently menopausal women, significant heterogeneity in CV risk is associated with education level, age, ethnicity, and genetic indicators. The model-based latent classes were also associated with cognitive function. These differences may point to phenotypes for CV disease risk. Evaluating

  3. Mapping Global Potential Risk of Mango Sudden Decline Disease Caused by Ceratocystis fimbriata

    Oliveira, Leonardo S. S.; Alfenas, Acelino C.; Neven, Lisa G.; Al-Sadi, Abdullah M.

    2016-01-01

    The Mango Sudden Decline (MSD), also referred to as Mango Wilt, is an important disease of mango in Brazil, Oman and Pakistan. This fungus is mainly disseminated by the mango bark beetle, Hypocryphalus mangiferae (Stebbing), by infected plant material, and the infested soils where it is able to survive for long periods. The best way to avoid losses due to MSD is to prevent its establishment in mango production areas. Our objectives in this study were to: (1) predict the global potential distribution of MSD, (2) identify the mango growing areas that are under potential risk of MSD establishment, and (3) identify climatic factors associated with MSD distribution. Occurrence records were collected from Brazil, Oman and Pakistan where the disease is currently known to occur in mango. We used the correlative maximum entropy based model (MaxEnt) algorithm to assess the global potential distribution of MSD. The MaxEnt model predicted suitable areas in countries where the disease does not already occur in mango, but where mango is grown. Among these areas are the largest mango producers in the world including India, China, Thailand, Indonesia, and Mexico. The mean annual temperature, precipitation of coldest quarter, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of driest month variables contributed most to the potential distribution of MSD disease. The mango bark beetle vector is known to occur beyond the locations where MSD currently exists and where the model predicted suitable areas, thus showing a high likelihood for disease establishment in areas predicted by our model. Our study is the first to map the potential risk of MSD establishment on a global scale. This information can be used in designing strategies to prevent introduction and establishment of MSD disease, and in preparation of efficient pest risk assessments and monitoring programs. PMID:27415625

  4. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

    2017-09-16

    The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124·1 million

  5. Ecological risk Evaluation and Green Infrastructure planning for coping with global climate change, a case study of Shanghai, China

    Li, Pengyao; Xiao, He; Li, Xiang; Hu, Wenhao; Gu, Shoubai; Yu, Zhenrong

    2018-01-01

    Coping with various ecological risks caused by extreme weather events of global climate change has become an important issue in regional planning, and storm water management for sustainable development. In this paper, taking Shanghai, China as a case study, four potential ecological risks were identified including flood disaster, sea-source disaster, urban heat island effect, and land subsidence. Based on spatial database, the spatial variation of these four ecological risks was evaluated, and the planning area was divided into seven responding regions with different green infrastructure strategy. The methodology developed in this study combining ecological risk evaluation with spatial regionalization planning could contribute to coping with global climate change.

  6. Bank Funding Structures and Risk; Evidence From the Global Financial Crisis

    Pablo Federico; Francisco F. Vazquez

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyzes the evolution of bank funding structures in the run up to the global financial crisis and studies the implications for financial stability, exploiting a bank-level dataset that covers about 11,000 banks in the U.S. and Europe during 2001?09. The results show that banks with weaker structural liquidity and higher leverage in the pre-crisis period were more likely to fail afterward. The likelihood of bank failure also increases with bank risk-taking. In the cross-section, th...

  7. An evolutionary game model for behavioral gambit of loyalists: Global awareness and risk-aversion

    Alfinito, E.; Barra, A.; Beccaria, M.; Fachechi, A.; Macorini, G.

    2018-02-01

    We study the phase diagram of a minority game where three classes of agents are present. Two types of agents play a risk-loving game that we model by the standard Snowdrift Game. The behaviour of the third type of agents is coded by indifference with respect to the game at all: their dynamics is designed to account for risk-aversion as an innovative behavioral gambit. From this point of view, the choice of this solitary strategy is enhanced when innovation starts, while is depressed when it becomes the majority option. This implies that the payoff matrix of the game becomes dependent on the global awareness of the agents measured by the relevance of the population of the indifferent players. The resulting dynamics is nontrivial with different kinds of phase transition depending on a few model parameters. The phase diagram is studied on regular as well as complex networks.

  8. Globalization of pediatric transplantation: The risk of tuberculosis or not tuberculosis.

    McCulloch, Mignon; Lin, Philana Ling

    2017-05-01

    The risk of TB among pediatric SOT recipients increases as the globalization of medical care continues to broaden. Unlike adults, children and especially infants are more susceptible to TB as a complication after transplantation. Little data exist regarding the true incidence of TB and the optimal risk-based management of this very vulnerable population. Here, we highlight the theoretical and practical issues that complicate the management of these patients and pose some questions that should be addressed when managing these patients. More data are needed to provide optimal guidance of the best diagnostic and management practices to this unique population. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Abundance in Capital: Global Risk Sharing and Insurance in a Changing Financial Environment

    Michel, Gero; Schaper, Christopher

    2014-05-01

    Insurance has played a viable role in the hedging of homeowners and commercial risks around the world. Countries that have significant penetration in insurance have in addition performed better after large regional or over-regional catastrophic losses. Insurance has hence increased the resilience of western societies. This is opposed to emerging or developing markets with low insurance penetration which have suffered significant drawbacks in their development after large catastrophic events. Examples include the recent Typhoon(s) in the Philippines and the 2010 Haiti earthquake. This presentation will provide insights into the opportunities, views and risk management features a global reinsurance company must assume in order to hedge and mitigate risk across the world. During the past year, an unprecedented amount of new capital has been entering the insurance market, looking for profitable investments outside the much wider capital market. Catastrophe insurance is seen as a valuable alternative to investing in assets that that have shown low returns and high correlation in the recent financial meltdown. The new capital is mostly deployed - or competing with already deployed capital - in the US where insurance penetration is already high. This is opposed to more than half of the world including all developing and most emerging countries which have low insurance penetration and often lack infrastructure hindering new capital to be deployed effectively. What is needed to overcome this obvious deficiency in capital supply and demand? One reason why it is difficult to deploy capital in developing countries is the lack of available exposure information and catastrophe models. This presentation sheds light on the potential science needs of our market and gives an overview of what is being done at Montpelier, a global reinsurance company, to understand catastrophe risk around the globe.

  10. EARTH, MOON, SUN, AND CV ACCRETION DISKS

    Montgomery, M. M.

    2009-01-01

    Net tidal torque by the secondary on a misaligned accretion disk, like the net tidal torque by the Moon and the Sun on the equatorial bulge of the spinning and tilted Earth, is suggested by others to be a source to retrograde precession in non-magnetic, accreting cataclysmic variable (CV) dwarf novae (DN) systems that show negative superhumps in their light curves. We investigate this idea in this work. We generate a generic theoretical expression for retrograde precession in spinning disks that are misaligned with the orbital plane. Our generic theoretical expression matches that which describes the retrograde precession of Earths' equinoxes. By making appropriate assumptions, we reduce our generic theoretical expression to those generated by others, or to those used by others, to describe retrograde precession in protostellar, protoplanetary, X-ray binary, non-magnetic CV DN, quasar, and black hole systems. We find that spinning, tilted CV DN systems cannot be described by a precessing ring or by a precessing rigid disk. We find that differential rotation and effects on the disk by the accretion stream must be addressed. Our analysis indicates that the best description of a retrogradely precessing spinning, tilted, CV DN accretion disk is a differentially rotating, tilted disk with an attached rotating, tilted ring located near the innermost disk annuli. In agreement with the observations and numerical simulations by others, we find that our numerically simulated CV DN accretion disks retrogradely precess as a unit. Our final, reduced expression for retrograde precession agrees well with our numerical simulation results and with selective observational systems that seem to have main-sequence secondaries. Our results suggest that a major source to retrograde precession is tidal torques like that by the Moon and the Sun on the Earth. In addition, these tidal torques should be common to a variety of systems where one member is spinning and tilted, regardless if

  11. Meeting the Challenge of Earthquake Risk Globalisation: Towards the Global Earthquake Model GEM (Sergey Soloviev Medal Lecture)

    Zschau, J.

    2009-04-01

    Earthquake risk, like natural risks in general, has become a highly dynamic and globally interdependent phenomenon. Due to the "urban explosion" in the Third World, an increasingly complex cross linking of critical infrastructure and lifelines in the industrial nations and a growing globalisation of the world's economies, we are presently facing a dramatic increase of our society's vulnerability to earthquakes in practically all seismic regions on our globe. Such fast and global changes cannot be captured with conventional earthquake risk models anymore. The sciences in this field are, therefore, asked to come up with new solutions that are no longer exclusively aiming at the best possible quantification of the present risks but also keep an eye on their changes with time and allow to project these into the future. This does not apply to the vulnerablity component of earthquake risk alone, but also to its hazard component which has been realized to be time-dependent, too. The challenges of earthquake risk dynamics and -globalisation have recently been accepted by the Global Science Forum of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD - GSF) who initiated the "Global Earthquake Model (GEM)", a public-private partnership for establishing an independent standard to calculate, monitor and communicate earthquake risk globally, raise awareness and promote mitigation.

  12. Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2016-01-01

    Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

  13. Global DNA hypomethylation in peripheral blood leukocytes as a biomarker for cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

    Hae Dong Woo

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Good biomarkers for early detection of cancer lead to better prognosis. However, harvesting tumor tissue is invasive and cannot be routinely performed. Global DNA methylation of peripheral blood leukocyte DNA was evaluated as a biomarker for cancer risk. METHODS: We performed a meta-analysis to estimate overall cancer risk according to global DNA hypomethylation levels among studies with various cancer types and analytical methods used to measure DNA methylation. Studies were systemically searched via PubMed with no language limitation up to July 2011. Summary estimates were calculated using a fixed effects model. RESULTS: The subgroup analyses by experimental methods to determine DNA methylation level were performed due to heterogeneity within the selected studies (p<0.001, I(2: 80%. Heterogeneity was not found in the subgroup of %5-mC (p = 0.393, I(2: 0% and LINE-1 used same target sequence (p = 0.097, I(2: 49%, whereas considerable variance remained in LINE-1 (p<0.001, I(2: 80% and bladder cancer studies (p = 0.016, I(2: 76%. These results suggest that experimental methods used to quantify global DNA methylation levels are important factors in the association study between hypomethylation levels and cancer risk. Overall, cancer risks of the group with the lowest DNA methylation levels were significantly higher compared to the group with the highest methylation levels [OR (95% CI: 1.48 (1.28-1.70]. CONCLUSIONS: Global DNA hypomethylation in peripheral blood leukocytes may be a suitable biomarker for cancer risk. However, the association between global DNA methylation and cancer risk may be different based on experimental methods, and region of DNA targeted for measuring global hypomethylation levels as well as the cancer type. Therefore, it is important to select a precise and accurate surrogate marker for global DNA methylation levels in the association studies between global DNA methylation levels in peripheral

  14. The socio-technical setting of economic stakes of global environment risks

    Salles, J.M.

    1993-01-01

    For policy-making for fighting acid rain, protecting the ozone layer and initiating action to prevent global climate change related to the growth of the greenhouse effect, the economic approach requires more precise consideration of how the economic stakes attached to these threats have been built up by their social actors. Global environmental risks (GER) are not directly perceivable nor can they be easily related to any activity or phenomena at local level (in time or space). There are scientific controversies about the reality of damage and establishing credible responsibility links. Moreover, these controversies are brought to media and social debate before any scientific clarification is possible. The media representations of GER emphasize the fact they could have catastrophic and irreversible consequences. So, the social demand for public action becomes very heavy when delay, possibly of several years between the causes and consequences of global environmental change, prevents any rapid clarification in the controversies. These difficulties have led to the evolution of a decision process in several steps: firstly, an international convention is prepared in which signatory countries commit themselves to cooperate and to take action; secondly, one or several agreements are signed with clear technical objectives and a timetable for implementations. 23 refs

  15. EN-CV during LS1: upgrade, consolidation, maintenance, operation

    Nonis, M.

    2012-01-01

    The Cooling and Ventilation (CV) Group in the Engineering Department (EN) will be heavily involved in several projects and activities during the long shutdown in 2013 and 2014 (LS1) within a time-frame limited to around twelve months. According to the requests received so far, most projects are related to the upgrade of users' equipment, consolidation work, and the construction of new plants. However, through the experience gained from the first years of the LHC run, some projects are also needed to adapt the existing installations to the new operating parameters. Some of these projects are presented hereafter, outlining the impact that they will have on operational working conditions or risks of breakdown. Among these projects we find: the PM32 raising pumps, the cooling of the CERN Control Center, R2E, the backup cooling towers for ATLAS and cryogenics, a thermosyphon for ATLAS, or new pumps in UWs. Finally, EN-CV activities during LS1 for maintenance, operation, and commissioning will be mentioned since they represent a major workload for the Group

  16. Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006-2007.

    Anyamba, Assaf; Chretien, Jean-Paul; Small, Jennifer; Tucker, Compton J; Linthicum, Kenneth J

    2006-12-28

    El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hemisphere particularly over North America. Building evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. We describe developing climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks using satellite generated data. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July - October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 - January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications are that the following regions are at increased

  17. Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006 – 2007

    Tucker Compton J

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hemisphere particularly over North America. Building evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. We describe developing climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks using satellite generated data. Results Sea surface temperatures (SSTs in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July – October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 – January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications

  18. IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS ON THE CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT IN A BANK

    Jerzy Piotr Gwizdała

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this article is to present the role of risk in the activity of a commercial bank with particular reference to the global financial crisis. The introductory part presents the origins of economic crises, especially the contemporary crisis from 2007-2010, which began in the United States subprime mortgage market. Dating back to the 1831, considerations allow to undetstand the causes of the crises. Then the impact of the global financial crisis on the scale of the crediting activities of banks in Poland was analyzed, presenting a credit portfolio structure, with a particular focus on the structure of loans to households and enterprises. In the second part of the article the process of credit risk management was discussed, paying attention to the crucial role of the bank's credit policy, and the conditions and prospects of commercial bank credit activity development were specified. It presents also the criteria for the proper credit management, indicating as the optimal solution the development of the so-called „credit textbook”.

  19. Global burden of stroke and risk factors in 188 countries, during 1990-2013

    Feigin, Valery L; Roth, Gregory A; Naghavi, Mohsen

    2016-01-01

    the population-attributable fraction (PAF) of stroke-related disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with potentially modifiable environmental, occupational, behavioural, physiological, and metabolic risk factors in different age and sex groups worldwide and in high-income countries and low......·2-73·5) and environmental factors (air pollution and lead exposure; 33·4%, 95% UI 32·4-34·3) were the second and third largest contributors to DALYs. Globally, 29·2% (95% UI 28·2-29·6) of the burden of stroke was attributed to air pollution. Although globally there were no significant differences between sexes......-income and middle-income countries, from 1990 to 2013. METHODS: We used data on stroke-related DALYs, risk factors, and PAF from the GBD 2013 Study to estimate the burden of stroke by age and sex (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UI]) in 188 countries, as measured with stroke-related DALYs in 1990...

  20. Risk perception and commitment to reduce global climate change in Spain

    Rodríguez-Priego, Nuria

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available An online national survey among the Spanish population (n = 602 was conducted to examine the factors underlying a person’s support for commitments to global climate change reductions. Multiple hierarchical regression analysis was conducted in four steps and a structural equations model was tested. A survey tool designed by the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication was applied in order to build scales for the variables introduced in the study. The results show that perceived consumer effectiveness and risk perception are determinant factors of commitment to mitigating global climate change. However, there are differences in the influence that other factors, such as socio-demographics, view of nature and cultural cognition, have on the last predicted variable.Una encuesta online a la población española (n = 602 examina los factores que predicen el apoyo al compromiso con el medio ambiente por parte de los participantes para reducir el cambio climático global. Se realizó una regresión múltiple jerárquica en cuatro pasos y se testó el modelo de ecuaciones estructurales propuesto. En la encuesta se aplicó una herramienta diseñada por el Yale Project on Climate Change Communication con la finalidad de construir escalas para las variables introducidas en el estudio. Los resultados muestran que la efectividad percibida por el consumidor y el riesgo percibido son factores determinantes del apoyo al compromiso para reducir el cambio climático global. No obstante, se encontraron algunas diferencias en cuanto a la influencia de otros factores tales como las variables socio-demográficas, la visión de la naturaleza y la cognición cultural.

  1. New trends in communicating risk and cultivating resilience: a multi-disciplinary approach to global environmental risk

    Kontar, Y. Y.; Eichelberger, J. C.; Rupp, S. T.; Taylor, K.

    2014-12-01

    The increasing extent and vulnerability of technologically advanced society together with aspects of global climate change intensifies the frequency and severity of natural disasters. Every year, communities around the world face the devastating consequences of hazardous events, including loss of life, property and infrastructure damage, and environmental decline. In this session, we will introduce a new book, entitled New Trends in Communicating Risk and Cultivating Resilience, which is dedicated to those who have directly or indirectly suffered the effects of climate change extreme events with the hope that the advance of knowledge, implementation of sound science and appropriate policies, and use of effective communication will help in reducing their vulnerability while also improving resilience in the face of often devastating natural hazards. This book comprises manuscripts from those whose research, advocacy, work, teaching, or service in the natural or social sciences deals with risk communication and/or management surrounding natural disasters, with a particular focus on climate change-related phenomena. This book is arranged into five sections: The Role of Communication in Fostering Resilient Communities (Reframing the conversation about natural hazards and climate change with a new focus on resilience)Before the Disaster: Prediction, Preparation, and Crisis Communication (The role of communication in predicting and preparing for the unpredictable regarding natural disasters)Mitigating Circumstances: Living Through Change, Uncertainty, and Disaster (Mitigation and the role of communication in minimizing the damage during natural disasters and during an era of climate change)After the Disaster: Response and Recovery Communication (The role of communication after natural disasters)Looking Back and Learning Forward: Best and Worst Practices Exposed (Considering risk and resilience communication of natural disasters with one eye on best practices and one eye

  2. Learning openCV computer vision with the openCV library

    Bradski, Gary

    2008-01-01

    Learning OpenCV puts you right in the middle of the rapidly expanding field of computer vision. Written by the creators of OpenCV, the widely used free open-source library, this book introduces you to computer vision and demonstrates how you can quickly build applications that enable computers to see" and make decisions based on the data. With this book, any developer or hobbyist can get up and running with the framework quickly, whether it's to build simple or sophisticated vision applications

  3. Caffeine and paraxanthine in aquatic systems: Global exposure distributions and probabilistic risk assessment.

    Rodríguez-Gil, J L; Cáceres, N; Dafouz, R; Valcárcel, Y

    2018-01-15

    This study presents one of the most complete applications of probabilistic methodologies to the risk assessment of emerging contaminants. Perhaps the most data-rich of these compounds, caffeine, as well as its main metabolite (paraxanthine), were selected for this study. Information for a total of 29,132 individual caffeine and 7442 paraxanthine samples was compiled, including samples where the compounds were not detected. The inclusion of non-detect samples (as censored data) in the estimation of environmental exposure distributions (EEDs) allowed for a realistic characterization of the global presence of these compounds in aquatic systems. EEDs were compared to species sensitivity distributions (SSDs), when possible, in order to calculate joint probability curves (JPCs) to describe the risk to aquatic organisms. This way, it was determined that unacceptable environmental risk (defined as 5% of the species being potentially exposed to concentrations able to cause effects in>5% of the cases) could be expected from chronic exposure to caffeine from effluent (28.4% of the cases), surface water (6.7% of the cases) and estuary water (5.4% of the cases). Probability of exceedance of acute predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs) for paraxanthine were higher than 5% for all assessed matrices except for drinking water and ground water, however no experimental effects data was available for paraxanthine, resulting in a precautionary deterministic hazard assessment for this compound. Given the chemical similarities between both compounds, real effect thresholds, and thus risk, for paraxanthine, would be expected to be close to those observed for caffeine. Negligible Human health risk from exposure to caffeine via drinking or groundwater is expected from the compiled data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Underreporting of high-risk water and sanitation practices undermines progress on global targets.

    Vedachalam, Sridhar; MacDonald, Luke H; Shiferaw, Solomon; Seme, Assefa; Schwab, Kellogg J

    2017-01-01

    Water and sanitation indicators under the Millennium Development Goals failed to capture high-risk practices undertaken on a regular basis. In conjunction with local partners, fourteen rounds of household surveys using mobile phones with a customized open-source application were conducted across nine study geographies in Asia and Africa. In addition to the main water and sanitation facilities, interviewees (n = 245,054) identified all water and sanitation options regularly used for at least one season of the year. Unimproved water consumption and open defecation were targeted as high-risk practices. We defined underreporting as the difference between the regular and main use of high-risk practices. Our estimates of high-risk practices as the main option matched the widely accepted Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) estimates within the 95% confidence interval. However, estimates of these practices as a regular option was far higher than the DHS estimates. Across the nine geographies, median underreporting of unimproved water use was 5.5%, with a range of 0.5% to 13.9%. Median underreporting of open defecation was much higher at 9.9%, with a range of 2.7% to 11.5%. This resulted in an underreported population of 25 million regularly consuming unimproved water and 50 million regularly practicing open defecation. Further examination of data from Ethiopia suggested that location and socio-economic factors were significant drivers of underreporting. Current global monitoring relies on a framework that considers the availability and use of a single option to meet drinking water and sanitation needs. Our analysis demonstrates the use of multiple options and widespread underreporting of high-risk practices. Policies based on current monitoring data, therefore, fail to consider the range of challenges and solutions to meeting water and sanitation needs, and result in an inflated sense of progress. Mobile surveys offer a cost-effective and innovative platform to rapidly

  5. Living with risk. A global review of disaster reduction initiatives. Preliminary version

    2002-01-01

    In recent years the world has witnessed an interminable succession of disasters - floods, storms, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and wildfires that have claimed many thousands of lives, caused material losses in the tens of billions of dollars, and inflicted a terrible toll on developing countries in particular, where disasters divert attention and resources needed desperately to escape poverty. Communities will always face natural hazards, but today's disasters are often generated by, or at least exacerbated by, human activities. At the most dramatic level, human activities are changing the natural balance of the earth, interfering as never before with the atmosphere, the oceans, the polar ice caps, the forest cover and the natural pillars that make our world a livable home. But we are also putting ourselves in harm's way in less visible ways. At no time in human history have so many people lived in cities clustered around seismically active areas. Destitution and demographic pressure have led more people than ever before to live in flood plains or in areas prone to landslides. Poor land-use planning; environmental mismanagement; and a lack of regulatory mechanisms both increase the risk and exacerbate the effects of disasters. Living with risk: a global review of disaster reduction is the first comprehensive effort by the United Nations system to take stock of disaster reduction initiatives throughout the world. Coordinated by the secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), the report discusses current disaster trends, assesses policies aimed at mitigating the impact of disasters, and offers examples of successful initiatives. It also recommends that risk reduction be integrated into sustainable development at all levels - global, national and local. Most of all, Living with risk shows that we are far from helpless in the face of natural hazards. Early warning and risk reduction measures have been important factors in

  6. Assessing and Responding to the Risks of Global and Societal Changes in the MENA Region

    Lange, Manfred

    2017-04-01

    combined risks posed by the MENA region being considered a climatic and a societal "hot spot", as described above. These risks will have to be effectively communicated to stakeholders and the research community in order to outline, specify and implement research towards efficacious mitigation and adaption strategies aimed to minimize adverse effects of challenges posed by global and societal changes in the MENA region. The paper will describe the current state of advancing such a process and will introduce a first draft of a "Future Earth Research Strategy for the MENA Region", as formulated by the FEMRC and its Regional Advisory Committee.

  7. Risk assessment, eradication, and biological control: global efforts to limit Australian acacia invasions

    Wilson, John R.U.; Gairifo, Carla; Gibson, Michelle R.; Arianoutsou, Margarita; Bakar, Baki B.; Baret, Stephane; Celesti-Grapow, Laura; DiTomaso, Joseph M.; Dufour-Dror, Jean-Marc; Kueffer, Christoph; Kull, Christian A.; Hoffman, John H.; Impson, Fiona A.C.; Loope, Lloyd L.; Marchante, Elizabete; Harchante, Helia; Moore, Joslin L.; Murphy, Daniel J.; Tassin, Jacques; Witt, Arne; Zenni, Rafael D.; Richardson, David M.

    2011-01-01

    Aim Many Australian Acacia species have been planted around the world, some are highly valued, some are invasive, and some are both highly valued and invasive. We review global efforts to minimize the risk and limit the impact of invasions in this widely used plant group. Location Global. Methods Using information from literature sources, knowledge and experience of the authors, and the responses from a questionnaire sent to experts around the world, we reviewed: (1) a generalized life cycle of Australian acacias and how to control each life stage, (2) different management approaches and (3) what is required to help limit or prevent invasions. Results Relatively few Australian acacias have been introduced in large numbers, but all species with a long and extensive history of planting have become invasive somewhere. Australian acacias, as a group, have a high risk of becoming invasive and causing significant impacts as determined by existing assessment schemes. Moreover, in most situations, long-lived seed banks mean it is very difficult to control established infestations. Control has focused almost exclusively on widespread invaders, and eradication has rarely been attempted. Classical biological control is being used in South Africa with increasing success. Main conclusions A greater emphasis on pro-active rather than reactive management is required given the difficulties managing established invasions of Australian acacias. Adverse effects of proposed new introductions can be minimized by conducting detailed risk assessments in advance, planning for on-going monitoring and management, and ensuring resources are in place for long-term mitigation. Benign alternatives (e.g. sterile hybrids) could be developed to replace existing utilized taxa. Eradication should be set as a management goal more often to reduce the invasion debt. Introducing classical biological control agents that have a successful track-record in South Africa to other regions and identifying new

  8. Comparative quantification of alcohol exposure as risk factor for global burden of disease.

    Rehm, Jürgen; Klotsche, Jens; Patra, Jayadeep

    2007-01-01

    Alcohol has been identified as one of the most important risk factors in the burden experienced as a result of disease. The objective of the present contribution is to establish a framework to comparatively quantify alcohol exposure as it is relevant for burden of disease. Different key indicators are combined to derive this quantification. First, adult per capita consumption, composed of recorded and unrecorded consumption, yields the best overall estimate of alcohol exposure for a country or region. Second, survey information is used to allocate the per capita consumption into sex and age groups. Third, an index for detrimental patterns of drinking is used to determine the additional impact on injury and cardiovascular burden. The methodology is applied to estimate global alcohol exposure for the year 2002. Finally, assumptions and potential problems of the approach are discussed. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Getting Risks Right:Thoughts about Increasing the Resilience of the Global Social & Economic System

    Patrick Liedtke

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The extraordinary extent of the financial crisis has inspired deep systemic reforms world-wide, rethinking financial stability, the resilience of our economic systems, and the role that national and international institutions play. While most of the ongoing activities are understandably centred on banks and the banking sector – the origin and centre of the crisis – other important elements have been relegated into secondary roles and fundamental democratic processes have been sidelined. Financial issues have crowded out real economic issues as policy-makers and politicians spend more time on the financial than the substantial (i.e. the real economy and the democratic. Two fundamental concerns need to be addressed proactively: 1. A comprehensive approach to deal with both financial and real world risks on this planet, and 2. The global governance system based on democratic principles to follow globalisation of the business (and particularly the financial sector.

  10. Organisation des travaux ST-CV

    Martel, C; CERN. Geneva. ST Division

    2003-01-01

    Débutée il y a deux ans, la phase de construction des installations de refroidissement du LHC a atteint en 2003 son apogée. De nombreux autres projets sont également gérés par le groupe dans divers secteurs du laboratoire. La spécificité du groupe est de réaliser des installations complexes impliquant des spécificités diverses telles qu’aéraulique, hydraulique, électrique, etc. Pour faire face à ces demandes la section travaux du groupe ST CV a adopté une structure capable de réaliser ces divers projets avec un minimum de personnel. La première partie de ce document décrit l’organisation de la section travaux ST CV. Dans une deuxième partie, les auteurs dressent un état des lieux des chantiers par projet en décrivant plus particulièrement les activités dans les domaines du traitement d’air et de refroidissement par eau.

  11. Retendering of ST-CV maintenance contract

    Battistin, M

    2003-01-01

    During the next three years, the ST/CV group will be deeply involved in the installation works for the LHC project. During this period the need for maintenance activity will decrease. The minimum level will be reached during the “long shutdown” of the PS and SPS machines in 2005. The budget for the maintenance will decrease accordingly, thus the CV group had to review its maintenance strategy. The new contract, which started on January 1st 2003, has been defined to cope with these workload variations during the next years and to guarantee the minimum maintenance activity on the existing equipment. A lump-sum contract based on a win-win strategy has been discarded. The contractor no longer has to guarantee the performance of the CERN cooling and ventilation systems. A new price list strategy based on performance indicators and penalties has been chosen. The contractor now has to guarantee the performance of every maintenance operation demanded by CERN. This modification obliged the Operation section of the...

  12. From Risks to Shared Value? Corporate Strategies in Building a Global Water Accounting and Disclosure Regime

    Marco A. Daniel

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The current debate on water accounting and accountability among transnational actors such as corporations and NGOs is likely to contribute to the emergence of a global water governance regime. Corporations within the food and beverage sector (F-B are especially vulnerable to water risks; therefore, in this article we analyse motivations and strategies of the major F-B corporations participating in the debate and developing different water accounting, disclosure and risk-assessment tools. Neo-institutionalism and neo-Gramscian regime theory provide the basis for our framework to analyse the discursive, material and organisational corporate water strategies. Findings based on an analysis of the chosen F-B corporations’ sustainability reports and interviews with key informants suggest that the corporations share similar goals and values with regard to the emerging regime. They seek a standardisation that is practical and supportive in improving their water efficiency and communication with stakeholders. This indicates that some harmonisation has taken place over time and new actors have been pursuing the path of the pioneering companies, but the lead corporations are also differentiating their strategies, thus engaging in hegemonic positioning. However, so far the plethora of NGO-driven accountability initiatives and tools has fragmented the field more than 'war of position' amongst the corporations. Furthermore, several companies claim to have proceeded from internal water-risk management to reducing risks throughout their value chains and watersheds. As a result they are 'creating shared value' with stakeholders, and potentially manifesting an emergent paradigm that goes beyond a private regime framework. Nevertheless, in the absence of verification schemes, questions of sustainability and legitimacy of such actions on the ground prevail and remain a topic for further research.

  13. Recalibration of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score in a multiethnic Asian population.

    Chan, Mark Y; Shah, Bimal R; Gao, Fei; Sim, Ling Ling; Chua, Terrance; Tan, Huay Cheem; Yeo, Tiong Cheng; Ong, Hean Yee; Foo, David; Goh, Ping Ping; Surrun, Soondal K; Pieper, Karen S; Granger, Christopher B; Koh, Tian Hai; Salim, Agus; Tai, E Shyong

    2011-08-01

    Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is a leading cause of mortality in Asia. However, quantitative risk scores to predict mortality after AMI were developed without the participation of Asian countries. We evaluated the performance of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) in-hospital mortality risk score, directly and after recalibration, in a large Singaporean cohort representing 3 major Asian ethnicities. The GRACE cohort included 11,389 patients, predominantly of European descent, hospitalized for AMI or unstable angina from 2002 to 2003. The Singapore cohort included 10,100 Chinese, 3,005 Malay, and 2,046 Indian patients hospitalized for AMI from 2002 to 2005.Using the original GRACE score, predicted in-hospital mortality was 2.4% (Chinese), 2.0% (Malay), and 1.6% (Indian). However, observed in-hospital mortality was much greater at 9.8% (Chinese), 7.6% (Malay), and 6.4% (Indian). The c statistic for Chinese, Malays, and Indians was 0.86, 0.86, and 0.84, respectively, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was 250, 56, and 41, respectively. Recalibration of the GRACE score, using the mean-centered constants derived from the Singapore cohort, did not change the c statistic but substantially improved the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic to 90, 24, and 18, respectively. The recalibrated GRACE score predicted in-hospital mortality as follows: 7.7% (Chinese), 6.0% (Malay), and 5.2% (Indian). In this large cohort of 3 major Asian ethnicities, the original GRACE score, derived from populations outside Asia, underestimated in-hospital mortality after AMI. Recalibration improved risk estimation substantially and may help adapt externally developed risk scores for local practice. Copyright © 2011 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Global risks due to illicit trafficking of nuclear and radiological materials

    Barakat, M. F.

    2012-01-01

    The global widespread applications of of the peaceful uses of atomic energy resulted in the production and accumulation of huge amounts of dangerous nuclear wastes and nuclear materials, the greater part of which is left either unattended or insufficiently protected. In the mean time, many terrorist groups appeared in the international arena aiming at fighting against all forms of pressure, discrimination or injustice in the international relations among developed and developing countries particularly in politically unstable regions of the world. Unfortunately, these terrorist groups were inclined to adopt the use of nuclear or radiological rather crude weapons to improve their methods and efforts in imposing situations of maximum horror possible to subjected communities. In the present work a brief study of the dimensions of nuclear terrorism, its forms and means directed to its support , has been carried out. The efforts to combat against nuclear proliferation in Central Asia as a region in which most of the violations of the non proliferation efforts occurred has been treated. In contrast, the prevailing conditions and efforts in the Americas region are discussed being a region in which combined efforts of the united states with other American countries were rather successful in combating nuclear proliferation. Some recommendations have been given concerning the necessary measures to face the global risk of illicit trafficking of nuclear materials all over the world. (author)

  15. Automatic segmentation of Leishmania parasite in microscopic images using a modified CV level set method

    Farahi, Maria; Rabbani, Hossein; Talebi, Ardeshir; Sarrafzadeh, Omid; Ensafi, Shahab

    2015-12-01

    Visceral Leishmaniasis is a parasitic disease that affects liver, spleen and bone marrow. According to World Health Organization report, definitive diagnosis is possible just by direct observation of the Leishman body in the microscopic image taken from bone marrow samples. We utilize morphological and CV level set method to segment Leishman bodies in digital color microscopic images captured from bone marrow samples. Linear contrast stretching method is used for image enhancement and morphological method is applied to determine the parasite regions and wipe up unwanted objects. Modified global and local CV level set methods are proposed for segmentation and a shape based stopping factor is used to hasten the algorithm. Manual segmentation is considered as ground truth to evaluate the proposed method. This method is tested on 28 samples and achieved 10.90% mean of segmentation error for global model and 9.76% for local model.

  16. Aedes aegypti Global Suitability Maps Using a Water Container Energy Balance Model for Dengue Risk Applications

    Steinhoff, D.

    2015-12-01

    Dengue infections are estimated to total nearly 400 million per year worldwide, with both the geographic range and the magnitude of infections having increased in the past 50 years. The primary dengue vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is closely associated with humans. It lives exclusively in urban and semi-urban areas, preferentially bites humans, and spends its developmental stages in artificial water containers. Climate regulates the development of Ae. aegypti immature mosquitoes in artificial containers. Potential containers for Ae. aegypti immature development include, but are not limited to, small sundry items (e.g., bottles, cans, plastic containers), buckets, tires, barrels, tanks, and cisterns. Successful development of immature mosquitoes from eggs to larvae, pupae, and eventually adults is largely dependent on the availability of water and the thermal properties of the water in the containers. Recent work has shown that physics-based approaches toward modeling container water properties are promising for resolving the complexities of container water dynamics and the effects on immature mosquito development. An energy balance container model developed by the author, termed the Water Height And Temperature in Container Habitats Energy Model (WHATCH'EM), solves for water temperature and height for user-specified containers with readily available weather data. Here we use WHATCH'EM with NASA Earth Science products used as input to construct global suitability maps based on established water temperature ranges for immature Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. A proxy for dengue risk is provided from habitat suitability, but also population estimates, as Ae. aegypti is closely associated with human activity. NASA gridded Global Population of the World data is used to mask out rural areas with low dengue risk. Suitability maps are illustrated for a variety of containers (size, material, color) and shading scenarios.

  17. Global thermal niche models of two European grasses show high invasion risks in Antarctica.

    Pertierra, Luis R; Aragón, Pedro; Shaw, Justine D; Bergstrom, Dana M; Terauds, Aleks; Olalla-Tárraga, Miguel Ángel

    2017-07-01

    The two non-native grasses that have established long-term populations in Antarctica (Poa pratensis and Poa annua) were studied from a global multidimensional thermal niche perspective to address the biological invasion risk to Antarctica. These two species exhibit contrasting introduction histories and reproductive strategies and represent two referential case studies of biological invasion processes. We used a multistep process with a range of species distribution modelling techniques (ecological niche factor analysis, multidimensional envelopes, distance/entropy algorithms) together with a suite of thermoclimatic variables, to characterize the potential ranges of these species. Their native bioclimatic thermal envelopes in Eurasia, together with the different naturalized populations across continents, were compared next. The potential niche of P. pratensis was wider at the cold extremes; however, P. annua life history attributes enable it to be a more successful colonizer. We observe that particularly cold summers are a key aspect of the unique Antarctic environment. In consequence, ruderals such as P. annua can quickly expand under such harsh conditions, whereas the more stress-tolerant P. pratensis endures and persist through steady growth. Compiled data on human pressure at the Antarctic Peninsula allowed us to provide site-specific biosecurity risk indicators. We conclude that several areas across the region are vulnerable to invasions from these and other similar species. This can only be visualized in species distribution models (SDMs) when accounting for founder populations that reveal nonanalogous conditions. Results reinforce the need for strict management practices to minimize introductions. Furthermore, our novel set of temperature-based bioclimatic GIS layers for ice-free terrestrial Antarctica provide a mechanism for regional and global species distribution models to be built for other potentially invasive species. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. The evolution of the Global Burden of Disease framework for disease, injury and risk factor quantification: developing the evidence base for national, regional and global public health action

    Lopez Alan D

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Reliable, comparable information about the main causes of disease and injury in populations, and how these are changing, is a critical input for debates about priorities in the health sector. Traditional sources of information about the descriptive epidemiology of diseases, injuries and risk factors are generally incomplete, fragmented and of uncertain reliability and comparability. Lack of a standardized measurement framework to permit comparisons across diseases and injuries, as well as risk factors, and failure to systematically evaluate data quality have impeded comparative analyses of the true public health importance of various conditions and risk factors. As a consequence the impact of major conditions and hazards on population health has been poorly appreciated, often leading to a lack of public health investment. Global disease and risk factor quantification improved dramatically in the early 1990s with the completion of the first Global Burden of Disease Study. For the first time, the comparative importance of over 100 diseases and injuries, and ten major risk factors, for global and regional health status could be assessed using a common metric (Disability-Adjusted Life Years which simultaneously accounted for both premature mortality and the prevalence, duration and severity of the non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. As a consequence, mental health conditions and injuries, for which non-fatal outcomes are of particular significance, were identified as being among the leading causes of disease/injury burden worldwide, with clear implications for policy, particularly prevention. A major achievement of the Study was the complete global descriptive epidemiology, including incidence, prevalence and mortality, by age, sex and Region, of over 100 diseases and injuries. National applications, further methodological research and an increase in data availability have led to improved national, regional and global estimates

  19. Analisis Potensi Kecelakaan Kerja Pada CV. Automotive Workshop Dengan Metode Failure Mode and Effect Analysis

    Syauqi, Qiqi Azwani; Susanty, Aries

    2016-01-01

    [Potential Analysis of Work Accidents at CV. Automotive Workshop using Failure Mode and Effect Analysis Method] Nowadays the global automotive industry, especially in developing countries has increased along with the increasing number of internet users and mobile penetration, the GDP rate increase of the developing countries and the growth of middle class-society, which makes the car sales in these countries increased anually. According to Carmudi, Semarang was the second-highest of the car l...

  20. Global risk mapping for major diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.

    Leta, Samson; Beyene, Tariku Jibat; De Clercq, Eva M; Amenu, Kebede; Kraemer, Moritz U G; Revie, Crawford W

    2018-02-01

    The objective of this study was to map the global risk of the major arboviral diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus by identifying areas where the diseases are reported, either through active transmission or travel-related outbreaks, as well as areas where the diseases are not currently reported but are nonetheless suitable for the vector. Data relating to five arboviral diseases (Zika, dengue fever, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Rift Valley fever (RVF)) were extracted from some of the largest contemporary databases and paired with data on the known distribution of their vectors, A. aegypti and A. albopictus. The disease occurrence data for the selected diseases were compiled from literature dating as far back as 1952 to as recent as 2017. The resulting datasets were aggregated at the country level, except in the case of the USA, where state-level data were used. Spatial analysis was used to process the data and to develop risk maps. Out of the 250 countries/territories considered, 215 (86%) are potentially suitable for the survival and establishment of A. aegypti and/or A. albopictus. A. albopictus has suitability foci in 197 countries/territories, while there are 188 that are suitable for A. aegypti. There is considerable variation in the suitability range among countries/territories, but many of the tropical regions of the world provide high suitability over extensive areas. Globally, 146 (58.4%) countries/territories reported at least one arboviral disease, while 123 (49.2%) reported more than one of the above diseases. The overall numbers of countries/territories reporting autochthonous vector-borne occurrences of Zika, dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and RVF, were 85, 111, 106, 43, and 39, respectively. With 215 countries/territories potentially suitable for the most important arboviral disease vectors and more than half of these reporting cases, arboviral diseases are indeed a global public health threat. The increasing proportion of

  1. The Risk-Return Profiles Of Global Portfolios: Some Evidence From Asia-Pacific And European Equity Markets

    H. Christine Hsu

    2011-01-01

    As world financial markets are integrated, national stock markets tend to move together. Empirical evidence on correlations among equity markets worldwide suggests an increasing interdependence between most national markets in recent years. This is disconcerting, to say the least, to investors and portfolio managers seeking risk diversification via global equity investing. The objective of this study is to investigate whether there is still room for global portfolio diversification from the U...

  2. A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

    Lim, S.S.; Vos, T.; Flaxman, A.D.; Danaei, G.; Shibuya, K.; Adair-Rohani, H.; Amann, M.; Anderson, H.R.; Andrews, K.G.; Aryee, M.; Atkinson, C.; Bacchus, L.J.; Bahalim, A.N.; Balakrishnan, K.; Balmes, J.; Barker-Collo, S.; Baxter, A.; Bell, M.L.; Blore, J.D.; Blyth, F.; Bonner, C.; Borges, G.; Bourne, R.; Boussinesq, M.; Brauer, M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/31149157X; Brooks, P.; Bruce, N.G.; Brunekreef, B.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/067548180; Bryan-Hancock, C.; Bucello, C.; Buchbinder, R.; Bull, F.; Burnett, R.T.; Byers, T.E.; Calabria, B.; Carapetis, J.; Carnahan, E.; Chafe, Z.; Charlson, F.; Chen, H.; Chen, J.S.; Cheng, A.T.; Child, J.C.; Cohen, A.; Colson, K.E.; Cowie, B.C.; Darby, S.; Darling, S.; Davis, A.; Degenhardt, L.; Dentener, F.; Des Jarlais, D.C.; Devries, K.; Dherani, M.; Ding, E.L.; Dorsey, E.R.; Driscoll, T.; Edmond, K.; Ali, S.E.; Engell, R.E.; Erwin, P.J.; Fahimi, S.; Falder, G.; Farzadfar, F.; Ferrari, A.; Finucane, M.M.; Flaxman, S.; Fowkes, F.G.R.; Freedman, G.; Freeman, M.K.; Gakidou, E.; Ghosh, S.; Giovannucci, E.; Gmel, G.; Graham, K.; Grainger, R.; Grant, B.; Gunnell, D.; Gutierrez, H.R.; Hall, W.; Hoek, H.W.; Hogan, A.; Hosgood, H.D.; Hoy, D.; Hu, H.; Hubbell, B.J.; Hutchings, S.J.; Ibeanusi, S.E.; Jacklyn, G.L.; Jasrasaria, R.; Jonas, J.B.; Kan, H.; Kanis, J.A.; Kassebaum, N.; Kawakami, N.; Khang, Y-H.; Khatibzadeh, S.; Khoo, J-P.; de Kok, C.; Laden, F.; Lalloo, R.; Lan, Q.; Lathlean, T.; Leasher, J.L.; Leigh, J.; Li, Y.; Lin, J.K.; Lipshultz, S.E.; London, S.; Lozano, R.; Lu, Y.; Mak, J.; Malekzadeh, R.; Mallinger, L.; Marcenes, W.; March, L.; Marks, R.; Martin, R.; McGale, P.; McGrath, J.; Mehta, S.; Mensah, G.A.; Merriman, T.R.; Micha, R.; Michaud, C.; Mishra, V.; Hanafiah, K.M.; Mokdad, A.A.; Morawska, L.; Mozaffarian, D.; Murphy, T.; Naghavi, M.; Neal, B.; Nelson, P.K.; Nolla, J.M.; Norman, R.; Olives, C.; Omer, S. B; Orchard, J.; Osborne, R.; Ostro, B.; Page, A.; Pandey, K.D.; Parry, C.D.H.; Passmore, E.; Patra, J.; Pearce, N.; Pelizzari, P.M.; Petzold, M.; Phillips, M.R.; Pope, D.; Pope, C.A.; Powles, J.; Rao, M.; Razavi, H.; Rehfuess, E.A.; Rehm, J.T.; Ritz, B.; Rivara, F.P.; Roberts, T.; Robinson, C.; Rodriguez-Portales, J.A.; Romieu, I.; Room, R.; Rosenfeld, L.C.; Roy, A.; Rushton, L.; Salomon, J.A.; Sampson, U.; Sanchez-Riera, L.; Sanman, E.; Sapkota, A.; Seedat, S.; Shi, P.; Shield, K.; Shivakoti, R.; Singh, G.M.; Sleet, D.A.; Smith, E.; Smith, K.R.; Stapelberg, N.J.C.; Steenland, K.; Stöckl, H.; Stovner, L.J.; Straif, K.; Straney, L.; Thurston, G.D.; Tran, J.H.; van Dingenen, R.; van Donkelaar, A.; Veerman, J.L.; Vijayakumar, L.; Weintraub, R.; Weissman, M.M.; White, R.A.; Whiteford, H.; Wiersma, S.T.; Wilkinson, J.D.; Williams, H.C.; Williams, W.; Wilson, N.; Woolf, A.D.; Yip, P.; Zielinski, J.M.; Lopez, A.D.; Murray, C.J.L.; Ezzati, M.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk

  3. Development and Psychometric Assessment of the Measure of Globalization Influence on Health Risk (MGIHR) Among Mexican Women with Breast Cancer.

    Nodora, Jesse N; Carvajal, Scott C; Robles-Garcia, Rebeca; Agraz, Francisco Páez; Daneri-Navarro, Adrian; Meza-Montenegro, Maria Mercedes; Gutierrez-Millan, Luis Enrique; Martinez, Maria Elena

    2015-08-01

    Lacking in the literature are data addressing the extent to which changes in reproductive and lifestyle factors predispose women in developing nations to higher breast cancer rates, and the degree to which these are due to globalization influences. This article describes the development and psychometric assessment of an instrument intended to measure global, predominantly U.S., influences on breast cancer risk profile among women residing in Mexico. Using investigator consensus and a focus group methodology, the Measure of Globalization Influence on Health Risk (MGIHR) was developed and completed by 341 women. Psychometric analysis support the use of an 11-item Consumerism and Modernity scale and 7-item Reproductive Control and Gender Role scale. The MGIHR is a valid and reliable instrument for understanding changing lifestyle and reproductive factors for breast cancer risk and may provide a more complete understanding of breast cancer development and needed interventions.

  4. Climate change and health: global to local influences on disease risk.

    Patz, J A; Olson, S H

    2006-01-01

    The World Health Organization has concluded that the climatic changes that have occurred since the mid 1970s could already be causing annually over 150,000 deaths and five million disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), mainly in developing countries. The less developed countries are, ironically, those least responsible for causing global warming. Many health outcomes and diseases are sensitive to climate, including: heat-related mortality or morbidity; air pollution-related illnesses; infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted, indirectly, via water or by insect or rodent vectors; and refugee health issues linked to forced population migration. Yet, changing landscapes can significantly affect local weather more acutely than long-term climate change. Land-cover change can influence micro-climatic conditions, including temperature, evapo-transpiration and surface run-off, that are key determinants in the emergence of many infectious diseases. To improve risk assessment and risk management of these synergistic processes (climate and land-use change), more collaborative efforts in research, training and policy-decision support, across the fields of health, environment, sociology and economics, are required.

  5. Global Potential Distribution of Bactrocera carambolae and the Risks for Fruit Production in Brazil.

    Marchioro, Cesar A

    2016-01-01

    The carambola fruit fly, Bactrocera carambolae, is a tephritid native to Asia that has invaded South America through small-scale trade of fruits from Indonesia. The economic losses associated with biological invasions of other fruit flies around the world and the polyphagous behaviour of B. carambolae have prompted much concern among government agencies and farmers with the potential spread of this pest. Here, ecological niche models were employed to identify suitable environments available to B. carambolae in a global scale and assess the extent of the fruit acreage that may be at risk of attack in Brazil. Overall, 30 MaxEnt models built with different combinations of environmental predictors and settings were evaluated for predicting the potential distribution of the carambola fruit fly. The best model was selected based on threshold-independent and threshold-dependent metrics. Climatically suitable areas were identified in tropical and subtropical regions of Central and South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, west and east coast of India and northern Australia. The suitability map of B. carambola was intersected against maps of fruit acreage in Brazil. The acreage under potential risk of attack varied widely among fruit species, which is expected because the production areas are concentrated in different regions of the country. The production of cashew is the one that is at higher risk, with almost 90% of its acreage within the suitable range of B. carambolae, followed by papaya (78%), tangerine (51%), guava (38%), lemon (30%), orange (29%), mango (24%) and avocado (20%). This study provides an important contribution to the knowledge of the ecology of B. carambolae, and the information generated here can be used by government agencies as a decision-making tool to prevent the carambola fruit fly spread across the world.

  6. Global Potential Distribution of Bactrocera carambolae and the Risks for Fruit Production in Brazil.

    Cesar A Marchioro

    Full Text Available The carambola fruit fly, Bactrocera carambolae, is a tephritid native to Asia that has invaded South America through small-scale trade of fruits from Indonesia. The economic losses associated with biological invasions of other fruit flies around the world and the polyphagous behaviour of B. carambolae have prompted much concern among government agencies and farmers with the potential spread of this pest. Here, ecological niche models were employed to identify suitable environments available to B. carambolae in a global scale and assess the extent of the fruit acreage that may be at risk of attack in Brazil. Overall, 30 MaxEnt models built with different combinations of environmental predictors and settings were evaluated for predicting the potential distribution of the carambola fruit fly. The best model was selected based on threshold-independent and threshold-dependent metrics. Climatically suitable areas were identified in tropical and subtropical regions of Central and South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, west and east coast of India and northern Australia. The suitability map of B. carambola was intersected against maps of fruit acreage in Brazil. The acreage under potential risk of attack varied widely among fruit species, which is expected because the production areas are concentrated in different regions of the country. The production of cashew is the one that is at higher risk, with almost 90% of its acreage within the suitable range of B. carambolae, followed by papaya (78%, tangerine (51%, guava (38%, lemon (30%, orange (29%, mango (24% and avocado (20%. This study provides an important contribution to the knowledge of the ecology of B. carambolae, and the information generated here can be used by government agencies as a decision-making tool to prevent the carambola fruit fly spread across the world.

  7. The loss of species: mangrove extinction risk and geographic areas of global concern.

    Beth A Polidoro

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Mangrove species are uniquely adapted to tropical and subtropical coasts, and although relatively low in number of species, mangrove forests provide at least US $1.6 billion each year in ecosystem services and support coastal livelihoods worldwide. Globally, mangrove areas are declining rapidly as they are cleared for coastal development and aquaculture and logged for timber and fuel production. Little is known about the effects of mangrove area loss on individual mangrove species and local or regional populations. To address this gap, species-specific information on global distribution, population status, life history traits, and major threats were compiled for each of the 70 known species of mangroves. Each species' probability of extinction was assessed under the Categories and Criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Eleven of the 70 mangrove species (16% are at elevated threat of extinction. Particular areas of geographical concern include the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Central America, where as many as 40% of mangroves species present are threatened with extinction. Across the globe, mangrove species found primarily in the high intertidal and upstream estuarine zones, which often have specific freshwater requirements and patchy distributions, are the most threatened because they are often the first cleared for development of aquaculture and agriculture. The loss of mangrove species will have devastating economic and environmental consequences for coastal communities, especially in those areas with low mangrove diversity and high mangrove area or species loss. Several species at high risk of extinction may disappear well before the next decade if existing protective measures are not enforced.

  8. The loss of species: mangrove extinction risk and geographic areas of global concern.

    Polidoro, Beth A; Carpenter, Kent E; Collins, Lorna; Duke, Norman C; Ellison, Aaron M; Ellison, Joanna C; Farnsworth, Elizabeth J; Fernando, Edwino S; Kathiresan, Kandasamy; Koedam, Nico E; Livingstone, Suzanne R; Miyagi, Toyohiko; Moore, Gregg E; Ngoc Nam, Vien; Ong, Jin Eong; Primavera, Jurgenne H; Salmo, Severino G; Sanciangco, Jonnell C; Sukardjo, Sukristijono; Wang, Yamin; Yong, Jean Wan Hong

    2010-04-08

    Mangrove species are uniquely adapted to tropical and subtropical coasts, and although relatively low in number of species, mangrove forests provide at least US $1.6 billion each year in ecosystem services and support coastal livelihoods worldwide. Globally, mangrove areas are declining rapidly as they are cleared for coastal development and aquaculture and logged for timber and fuel production. Little is known about the effects of mangrove area loss on individual mangrove species and local or regional populations. To address this gap, species-specific information on global distribution, population status, life history traits, and major threats were compiled for each of the 70 known species of mangroves. Each species' probability of extinction was assessed under the Categories and Criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Eleven of the 70 mangrove species (16%) are at elevated threat of extinction. Particular areas of geographical concern include the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Central America, where as many as 40% of mangroves species present are threatened with extinction. Across the globe, mangrove species found primarily in the high intertidal and upstream estuarine zones, which often have specific freshwater requirements and patchy distributions, are the most threatened because they are often the first cleared for development of aquaculture and agriculture. The loss of mangrove species will have devastating economic and environmental consequences for coastal communities, especially in those areas with low mangrove diversity and high mangrove area or species loss. Several species at high risk of extinction may disappear well before the next decade if existing protective measures are not enforced.

  9. The CEOS Global Observation Strategy for Disaster Risk Management: An Enterprise Architect's View

    Moe, K.; Evans, J. D.; Frye, S.

    2013-12-01

    The Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Working Group on Information Systems and Services (WGISS), on behalf of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), is defining an enterprise architecture (known as GA.4.D) for the use of satellite observations in international disaster management. This architecture defines the scope and structure of the disaster management enterprise (based on disaster types and phases); its processes (expressed via use cases / system functions); and its core values (in particular, free and open data sharing via standard interfaces). The architecture also details how a disaster management enterprise describes, obtains, and handles earth observations and data products for decision-support; and how it draws on distributed computational services for streamlined operational capability. We have begun to apply this architecture to a new CEOS initiative, the Global Observation Strategy for Disaster Risk Management (DRM). CEOS is defining this Strategy based on the outcomes of three pilot projects focused on seismic hazards, volcanoes, and floods. These pilots offer a unique opportunity to characterize and assess the impacts (benefits / costs) of the GA.4.D architecture in practice. In particular, the DRM Floods Pilot is applying satellite-based optical and radar data to flood mitigation, warning, and response, including monitoring and modeling at regional to global scales. It is focused on serving user needs and building local institutional / technical capacity in the Caribbean, Southern Africa, and Southeast Asia. In the context of these CEOS DRM Pilots, we are characterizing where and how the GA.4D architecture helps participants to: - Understand the scope and nature of hazard events quickly and accurately - Assure timely delivery of observations into analysis, modeling, and decision-making - Streamline user access to products - Lower barriers to entry for users or suppliers - Streamline or focus field operations in

  10. IJ-OpenCV: Combining ImageJ and OpenCV for processing images in biomedicine.

    Domínguez, César; Heras, Jónathan; Pascual, Vico

    2017-05-01

    The effective processing of biomedical images usually requires the interoperability of diverse software tools that have different aims but are complementary. The goal of this work is to develop a bridge to connect two of those tools: ImageJ, a program for image analysis in life sciences, and OpenCV, a computer vision and machine learning library. Based on a thorough analysis of ImageJ and OpenCV, we detected the features of these systems that could be enhanced, and developed a library to combine both tools, taking advantage of the strengths of each system. The library was implemented on top of the SciJava converter framework. We also provide a methodology to use this library. We have developed the publicly available library IJ-OpenCV that can be employed to create applications combining features from both ImageJ and OpenCV. From the perspective of ImageJ developers, they can use IJ-OpenCV to easily create plugins that use any functionality provided by the OpenCV library and explore different alternatives. From the perspective of OpenCV developers, this library provides a link to the ImageJ graphical user interface and all its features to handle regions of interest. The IJ-OpenCV library bridges the gap between ImageJ and OpenCV, allowing the connection and the cooperation of these two systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Geology for Global Development: Mobilising and equipping young geologists to engage in disaster risk reduction

    Gill, Joel

    2016-04-01

    Geology for Global Development (GfGD) is a not-for-profit organisation working to mobilise and equip geologists to engage in all aspects of sustainable development, including disaster risk reduction (DRR). Geologists have a crucial role to play in DRR, and the recently agreed Sendai Framework for DRR 2015-2030. This framework aims to significantly reduce loss of lives and livelihoods due to disasters. The geology community have an understanding of the Earth, its physical structure, and the processes by which it is constantly being shaped which are of particular relevance to Priorities for Action 1 and 4 noted within the Sendai Framework. Effective engagement by geologists, however, requires many skills beyond the standard geology curriculum. Cultural understanding, cross-disciplinary communication, diplomacy, community mobilization and participation, knowledge exchange, and an understanding of social science research tools are commonly necessary for effective research and engagement in the science-policy-practice interface. Topical and disciplinary knowledge, such as understanding social vulnerability, international policy frameworks and development theory are also rarely included in the education and professional training of a young geologist. Through the work of GfGD, we are training young geologists with these skills and the supporting knowledge required to make an effective contribution to reducing disaster risk, support civil society, empower communities and help to strengthen resilience. University chapters have been established in 14 major UK and Irish universities, coordinating extra-curricular seminars, workshops and discussion activities. Our work is currently focused on supporting young geologists, but we are increasingly a respected voice at international geoscience forums that gather a wide range of students and professionals. Wider (national and international) activities include conferences, placements and facilitating youth engagement in education

  12. Trait acclimation mitigates mortality risks of tropical canopy trees under global warming

    Frank eSterck

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25-35ºC and ambient CO2 concentrations (390-800 ppm predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10-20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2ºC, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change.

  13. Surviving global risks through the preservation of humanity's data on the Moon

    Turchin, Alexey; Denkenberger, David

    2018-05-01

    Many global catastrophic risks are threatening human civilization, and a number of ideas have been suggested for preventing or surviving them. However, if these interventions fail, society could preserve information about the human race and human DNA samples in the hopes that the next civilization on Earth will be able to reconstruct Homo sapiens and our culture. This requires information preservation of an order of magnitude of 100 million years, a little-explored topic thus far. It is important that a potential future civilization discovers this information as early as possible, thus a beacon should accompany the message in order to increase visibility. The message should ideally contain information about how humanity was destroyed, perhaps including a continuous recording until the end. This could help the potential future civilization to survive. The best place for long-term data storage is under the surface of the Moon, with the beacon constructed as a complex geometric figure drawn by small craters or trenches around a central point. There are several cost-effective options for sending the message as opportunistic payloads on different planned landers.

  14. Assessing the Risk of Establishment of Rhagoletis cerasi (Diptera: Tephritidae) in the United States and Globally.

    Wakie, Tewodros T; Yee, Wee L; Neven, Lisa G

    2018-05-28

    The European cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis cerasi (L.) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is a highly destructive pest of cherries (Prunus spp.) (Rosaceae) in Europe and Asia. In 2016, R. cerasi was detected in Ontario, Canada, and in 2017 in New York State, USA, the first records of this pest in North America. The initial detections in Canada caused concern for the major cherry-growing states of Michigan, Washington, Oregon, and California in the United States. Establishment of R. cerasi in the United States could restrict cherry exports to other markets and increase costs needed for fly control, but it is unknown if R. cerasi can establish in U.S. commercial cherry regions. Here, we used the CLIMEX ecological niche model to determine the risk of establishment of R. cerasi in the United States and globally. Within the United States under a no-irrigation scenario, R. cerasi would establish in the East and West Coasts; however, under an irrigation scenario, its distribution would expand to the major cherry-growing regions in the interior of central and eastern Washington and in California. Results also showed that if introduced, R. cerasi would likely establish in eastern China, Japan, the Koreas, Australia, New Zealand, South America, South Africa, Mexico, and Canada. Host plant (Prunus spp. and Lonicera spp. [Caprifoliaceae]) presence, although not included in models, would affect fly establishment. Our results stress the importance of surveying for R. cerasi to prevent its spread and establishment within the United States and other countries.

  15. Down-Side Risk Metrics as Portfolio Diversification Strategies across the Global Financial Crisis

    David E. Allen

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper features an analysis of the effectiveness of a range of portfolio diversification strategies, with a focus on down-side risk metrics, as a portfolio diversification strategy in a European market context. We apply these measures to a set of daily arithmetically-compounded returns, in U.S. dollar terms, on a set of ten market indices representing the major European markets for a nine-year period from the beginning of 2005 to the end of 2013. The sample period, which incorporates the periods of both the Global Financial Crisis (GFC and the subsequent European Debt Crisis (EDC, is a challenging one for the application of portfolio investment strategies. The analysis is undertaken via the examination of multiple investment strategies and a variety of hold-out periods and backtests. We commence by using four two-year estimation periods and a subsequent one-year investment hold out period, to analyse a naive 1/N diversification strategy and to contrast its effectiveness with Markowitz mean variance analysis with positive weights. Markowitz optimisation is then compared to various down-side investment optimisation strategies. We begin by comparing Markowitz with CVaR, and then proceed to evaluate the relative effectiveness of Markowitz with various draw-down strategies, utilising a series of backtests. Our results suggest that none of the more sophisticated optimisation strategies appear to dominate naive diversification.

  16. Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

    Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P. R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

    2016-01-01

    There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area) to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25–35°C) and ambient CO2 concentrations (390–800 ppm) predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10–20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2°C, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change. PMID:27242814

  17. Contemplating Catastrophe: conveying the causes, effects, risks of and responses to global change

    McCaffrey, M.; Berbeco, M.; Lahsen, M.

    2013-12-01

    Humans are changing nature and undermining the life supporting systems of the planet to an unprecedented extent, eroding more soil than all natural processes combined, fixing more nitrogen than all the bacteria on the planet, and substantially altering the land cover and chemistry of the atmosphere and waters. Yet, especially in the United States but also elsewhere, environmental awareness and policy action has been lackluster and hesitant due to a range of factors, including manufactured doubt and denial, psychological, cultural and economic investments in maintenance of status quo, and - when concern does exist - lack of knowledge about how to foster effective change. This paper will examine how recent research findings on human impacts on the planet are being conveyed to non-technical audiences and discuss challenges and opportunities to provide the public with the relevant knowledge and knowhow to address the risks of, and responses to global change. It will argue that a second-wave scientific literacy consisting in deeper understanding of the scientific process must be nurtured as part of a process to capacitate populations, especially youths, to navigate conflicting evidence and claims that surround many environmental threats. Such literacy must be fostered through 'learning conversations,' community and capacity-building, and integrated education, communication and outreach infusing science and solutions to foster a more effective approach to confronting potential catastrophe. 25 February 2013 at 16:30 Pacific Time

  18. Migrants and emerging public health issues in a globalized world: threats, risks and challenges, an evidence-based framework.

    Gushulak, Bd; Weekers, J; Macpherson, Dw

    2009-01-01

    International population mobility is an underlying factor in the emergence of public health threats and risks that must be managed globally. These risks are often related, but not limited, to transmissible pathogens. Mobile populations can link zones of disease emergence to lowprevalence or nonendemic areas through rapid or high-volume international movements, or both. Against this background of human movement, other global processes such as economics, trade, transportation, environment and climate change, as well as civil security influence the health impacts of disease emergence. Concurrently, global information systems, together with regulatory frameworks for disease surveillance and reporting, affect organizational and public awareness of events of potential public health significance. International regulations directed at disease mitigation and control have not kept pace with the growing challenges associated with the volume, speed, diversity, and disparity of modern patterns of human movement. The thesis that human population mobility is itself a major determinant of global public health is supported in this article by review of the published literature from the perspective of determinants of health (such as genetics/biology, behavior, environment, and socioeconomics), population-based disease prevalence differences, existing national and international health policies and regulations, as well as inter-regional shifts in population demographics and health outcomes. This paper highlights some of the emerging threats and risks to public health, identifies gaps in existing frameworks to manage health issues associated with migration, and suggests changes in approach to population mobility, globalization, and public health. The proposed integrated approach includes a broad spectrum of stakeholders ranging from individual health-care providers to policy makers and international organizations that are primarily involved in global health management, or are influenced

  19. Assessing Progress in Reducing the At-Risk Population after 13 Years of the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis

    Hooper, Pamela J.; Chu, Brian K.; Mikhailov, Alexei; Ottesen, Eric A.; Bradley, Mark

    2014-01-01

    Background In 1997, the World Health Assembly adopted Resolution 50.29, committing to the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem, subsequently targeted for 2020. The initial estimates were that 1.2 billion people were at-risk for LF infection globally. Now, 13 years after the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) began implementing mass drug administration (MDA) against LF in 2000—during which over 4.4 billion treatments have been distributed in 56 endemic countries—it is most appropriate to estimate the impact that the MDA has had on reducing the population at risk of LF. Methodology/Principal Findings To assess GPELF progress in reducing the population at-risk for LF, we developed a model based on defining reductions in risk of infection among cohorts of treated populations following each round of MDA. The model estimates that the number of people currently at risk of infection decreased by 46% to 789 million through 2012. Conclusions/Significance Important progress has been made in the global efforts to eliminate LF, but significant scale-up is required over the next 8 years to reach the 2020 elimination goal. PMID:25411843

  20. EVALUASI SISTEM INFORMASI PERSEDIAAN PADA CV. SARANA TELEMAXINDO

    Nelly Nelly

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Evaluation objectives of inventory information systems at CV. Facilities Telemaxindo was to evaluate the weaknesses of the implementation of internal control, as well as estimating and assessing possible risks that might arise. The research method used is literature study of reference books in the library, and field study consisted of observation, interviews with relevant parties, creating check lists, check the inventory information systems documentation, and testing of inventory application systems. The results are findings of control weaknesses in the implementation of security management, operational management control, boundary control, input control, and output control on the present inventory information system. These weaknesses could pose a risk and if not dealt soon it could hurt the company. The resulting conclusion of the security management control, boundary control, control input, and output control is not running well so that it needs to be improved in accordance with the recommendations, while operational management control has been running fairly well.Keywords: evaluation, information system, inventory

  1. Audit Manager Risk Behaviour in a Global Economy – a Research of the Theories on the Determinants of Risk Behaviour

    Ionescu Iancu Octavian

    2010-01-01

    In an increasingly globalised economy, the quality and professionalism of business decisions are intrinsically linked to the risk behaviour of decision makers. The business decision makers are usually faced with a degree of uncertainty when they have to assess risk and make decisions. This paper examines risk behaviour from an audit firm manager perspective and from an academic perspective. The emphasis is on the managerial risk behaviour in business decision making. The research objective is...

  2. Antidiabetic and anticancer activities of Mangifera indica cv. Okrong leaves

    Ganogpichayagrai, Aunyachulee; Palanuvej, Chanida; Ruangrungsi, Nijsiri

    2017-01-01

    Diabetes and cancer are a major global public health problem. Plant-derived agents with undesirable side-effects were required. This study aimed to evaluate antidiabetic and anticancer activities of the ethanolic leaf extract of Mangifera indica cv. Okrong and its active phytochemical compound, mangiferin. Antidiabetic activities against yeast α-glucosidase and rat intestinal α-glucosidase were determined using 1 mM of p-nitro phenyl-α-D-glucopyranoside as substrate. Inhibitory activity against porcine pancreatic α-amylase was performed using 1 mM of 2-chloro-4 nitrophenol-α-D-maltotroside-3 as substrate. Nitrophenol product was spectrophotometrically measured at 405 nm. Anticancer activity was evaluated against five human cancer cell lines compared to two human normal cell lines using 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide assay. Mango leaf extract and mangiferin exhibited dose-dependent inhibition against yeast α-glucosidase with the IC50 of 0.0503 and 0.5813 mg/ml, respectively, against rat α-glucosidase with the IC50 of 1.4528 and 0.4333 mg/ml, respectively, compared to acarbose with the IC50 of 11.9285 and 0.4493 mg/ml, respectively. For anticancer activity, mango leaf extract, at ≥200 μg/ml showed cytotoxic potential against all tested cancer cell lines. In conclusion, mango leaf possessed antidiabetic and anticancer potential in vitro. PMID:28217550

  3. Thresholds for pulse wave velocity, urine albumin creatinine ratio and left ventricular mass index using SCORE, Framingham and ESH/ESC risk charts

    Sehestedt, Thomas Berend; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Hansen, Tine Willum

    2012-01-01

    Markers of subclinical target organ damage (TOD) increase cardiovascular (CV) risk prediction beyond traditional risk factors. We wanted to establish thresholds for three markers of TOD based on absolute CV risk in different risk chart categories....

  4. Improving Postharvest Storage of Apple Cv.

    H. Etemadi Nasab

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Apple is one of the important fruit in Iran. according to respiration and ethylene production behaviors, apple classified as a climacteric fruit. Therefore, any treatments, which can inhibit or prevent the action of ethylene, they can increase the postharvest life of horticultural production. 1-methylcyclopropane (1-MCP is one of the chemical which is environmental save and use as a very small concentrations. In this experiment, the effects of 1-MCP at concentrations of 0 (as a control, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75 and 1 µl.l-1 were used in apple cv. "Golab Kohanz", a land race fruits which is cultivated from long times ago in Iran. After the 1-MCP treatment, they were moved to cold room at 2 ºC and RH of ca 90% for 60 days. Samples were removed from the cold room and analysis for physicochemical characteristics. "Golab Kohanz" apples treated with 1-MCP showed improved fruit firmness, titratable acidity (TA, and total soluble solid after 147 days at 2ºC , compared to the control non-treated fruits. Also, treatment with 1-MCP significantly reduced the incidence of superficial scald in "Golab Kohanze". In general, 1-MCP-treated apples delay ripening during storing in cold room and increased shelf life. Overall, the results indicate that 1-MCP has tremendous potential for maintaining apple quality during storage and post storage.

  5. Trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections pose a correlated risk to global agriculture

    Anderson, W. B.; Seager, R.; Cane, M. A.; Baethgen, W.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of interannual climate variability, particularly in the Pacific Basin. ENSO life-cycles tend to evolve over multiple years, as do the associated trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections. This analysis, however, represents the first attempt to characterize the structure of the risk posed by ENSO to wheat, maize and soybean production across the Pacific Basin. Our results indicate that most ENSO teleconnections relevant for crop flowering seasons are the result of a single trans-Pacific circulation anomaly that develops in boreal summer and persists through the spring. During the late summer and early fall of a developing ENSO event, the tropical Pacific forces an atmospheric anomaly in the midlatitudes that spans the Pacific Basin. This teleconnection directly links the soybean and maize growing seasons of the US, Mexico and China. It also connects the wheat growing seasons of Argentina, southern Brazil and Australia. The ENSO event peaks in boreal winter, when the atmospheric circulation anomalies intensify and affect maize and soybeans in southeast South America. As the event decays, the ENSO-induced circulation anomalies persist through the wheat flowering seasons in China and the US. While the prospect of ENSO forcing simultaneous droughts in major food producing regions seems disastrous, there may be a silver lining from the perspective of global food security: trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections to yields are often offsetting between major producing regions in the eastern and western portions of the Pacific Basin. El Niños tend to create good maize and soybean growing conditions in the US and southeast South America, but poor growing conditions in China, Mexico and northeast Brazil. The opposite is true during La Niña. Wheat growing conditions in southeast South America generally have the opposite sign of those in Australia. Finally, we investigate how trade networks interact with this structure of ENSO

  6. Multivariate Models to Forecast Portfolio Value at Risk: from the Dot- Com crisis to the global financial crisis

    Manuel Sousa Gabrie

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed market risk of an international investment portfolio by means of a new methodological proposal based on Value-at- Risk, using the covariance matrix of multivariate GARCH-type models and the extreme value theory to realize if an international diversification strategy minimizes market risk, and to determine if the VaR methodology adequately captures market risk, by applying Backtesting tests. To this end, we considered twelve international stock indexes, accounting for about 62% of the world stock market capitalization, and chose the period from the Dot-Com crisis to the current global financial crisis. Results show that the proposed methodology is a good alternative to accommodate the high market turbulence and can be considered as an adequate portfolio risk management instrument.

  7. A global airport-based risk model for the spread of dengue infection via the air transport network.

    Lauren Gardner

    Full Text Available The number of travel-acquired dengue infections has seen a consistent global rise over the past decade. An increased volume of international passenger air traffic originating from regions with endemic dengue has contributed to a rise in the number of dengue cases in both areas of endemicity and elsewhere. This paper reports results from a network-based risk assessment model which uses international passenger travel volumes, travel routes, travel distances, regional populations, and predictive species distribution models (for the two vector species, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus to quantify the relative risk posed by each airport in importing passengers with travel-acquired dengue infections. Two risk attributes are evaluated: (i the risk posed by through traffic at each stopover airport and (ii the risk posed by incoming travelers to each destination airport. The model results prioritize optimal locations (i.e., airports for targeted dengue surveillance. The model is easily extendible to other vector-borne diseases.

  8. Modeling Banking, Sovereign, and Macro Risk in a CCA Global VAR

    Dale F. Gray

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to develop a model framework for the analysis of interactions between banking sector risk, sovereign risk, corporate sector risk, real economic activity, and credit growth for 15 European countries and the United States. It is an integrated macroeconomic systemic risk model framework that draws on the advantages of forward-looking contingent claims analysis (CCA) risk indicators for the banking systems in each country, forward-looking CCA risk indicators for sover...

  9. A global, cross cultural study examining the relationship between employee health risk status and work performance metrics.

    Howarth, Ana; Quesada, Jose; Mills, Peter R

    2017-01-01

    Health risk assessments (HRA) are used by many organisations as a basis for developing relevant and targeted employee health and well-being interventions. However, many HRA's have a western-centric focus and therefore it is unclear whether the results can be directly extrapolated to those from non-western countries. More information regarding the differences in the associations between country status and health risks is needed along with a more global perspective of employee health risk factors and well-being overall. Therefore we aimed to i) quantify and compare associations for a number of health risk factors based on country status, and then ii) explore which characteristics can aid better prediction of well-being levels and in turn workplace productivity globally. Online employee HRA data collected from 254 multi-national companies, for the years 2013 through 2016 was analysed (n = 117,274). Multiple linear regression models were fitted, adjusting for age and gender, to quantify associations between country status and health risk factors. Separate regression models were used to assess the prediction of well-being measures related to productivity. On average, the developing countries were comprised of younger individuals with lower obesity rates and markedly higher job satisfaction compared to their developed country counterparts. However, they also reported higher levels of anxiety and depression, a greater number of health risks and lower job effectiveness. Assessment of key factors related to productivity found that region of residency was the biggest predictor of presenteeism and poor pain management was the biggest predictor of absenteeism. Clear differences in health risks exist between employees from developed and developing countries and these should be considered when addressing well-being and productivity in the global workforce.

  10. Information Seeking about Global Climate Change among Adolescents: The Role of Risk Perceptions, Efficacy Beliefs and Parental Influences

    Mead, Erin; Roser-Renouf, Connie; Rimal, Rajiv N.; Flora, June A.; Maibach, Edward W.; Leiserowitz, Anthony

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change is likely to have significant impacts on public health. Effective communication is critical to informing public decision making and behavior to mitigate climate change. An effective method of audience segmentation, the risk perception attitude (RPA) framework has been previously tested with other health behaviors and classifies people into 4 groups on the basis of their perceptions of risk and beliefs about personal efficacy. The 4 groups – indifference (low risk, weak efficacy), proactive (low risk, strong efficacy), avoidance (high risk, weak efficacy), and responsive (high risk, strong efficacy) – are hypothesized to differ in their self-protective behaviors and in their motivations to seek information. In this paper, we extend the RPA framework in two ways. First, we use it at the household level to determine whether parental classifications into the 4 groups are associated with their teenage children’s classification into the same 4 groups. Second, we predict adolescent information-seeking behaviors on the basis of their and their parents’ membership in the 4 RPA groups. Results (N = 523 parent-adolescent pairs) indicated that parental membership in the 4 RPA groups was significantly associated with children’s membership in the same 4 groups. Furthermore, the RPA framework was a significant predictor of adolescent information-seeking: those in the responsive and avoidance groups sought more information on climate change than the indifference group. Family communication on global warming was positively associated with adolescents’ information-seeking. Implications for interventions are discussed. PMID:22866024

  11. Childhood socioeconomic status and risk in early family environments: predictors of global sleep quality in college students.

    Counts, Cory J; Grubin, Fiona C; John-Henderson, Neha A

    2018-06-01

    Low socioeconomic status (SES) in childhood associates with poor sleep quality in adulthood. Separately, childhood family environments shape health into adulthood. Here, we investigated whether these early life factors independently or interactively inform global sleep quality in college students. Cross-sectional. College students at a state university (N = 391). As a measure of childhood SES, we asked participants to consider their families' socioeconomic standing relative to the rest of the society during their childhood. We used the Risky Family questionnaire to measure adversity and the presence of warmth and affection in the family environment during childhood, and the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index as a measure of current global sleep quality. We used linear regressions adjusting for age and sex to examine relationships between childhood SES, risk in childhood family environments, and global sleep quality. Lower childhood SES and greater risk in childhood family environments independently predicted poor sleep quality. Importantly, in low-risk family environments, there was no significant difference in sleep quality as a function of childhood SES. However, students who were from low childhood SES backgrounds who also reported high levels of risk in their early family environments had the worst sleep quality. Findings highlight the importance of considering socioeconomic and family environments in childhood as informants of sleep quality across the lifespan. Compromised sleep quality in college students could affect academic performance and health over time. Copyright © 2018 National Sleep Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. ANALISIS SEWA MENYEWA PARALEL PADA PERUSAHAAN RENT CAR CV. HARKAT DALAM PERSPEKTIF EKONOMI ISLAM

    Samsuardi Samsuardi

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims at determining the parallel process of car rental agreement between Harkat Rent Car Company and the owner of the car, and between the company and its customers in an Islamic economics perspective. This study also aims to analyze the risk coverage of the leased car. The data for this study was gathered through interviews, observation and documentation studies. The collected data was then analyzed using descriptive analysis method. Results showed that the process of car leasing begin when customer rented a car from CV. Harkat which was owned by its partner. The company provided a shared price for car owners according to a mutual agreement and applied only for a certain period. Furthermore, the partner has to allocate 20 percent of the income for the company. In addition, the company also required the partner to cover for maintenance costs, insurance, equipment, and spare parts. In the context of Islamic economics, the practice of leasing parallel conducted by the company was not fully Shariah compliance due to practice a lease above a lease and using two contracts in one transaction. =========================================== Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui perjanjian sewa menyewa mobil secara paralel antara Perusahaan Rent Car CV. Harkat dengan pemilik mobil dan dengan konsumennya dalam perspektif ekonomi Islam. Penelitian ini juga bertujuan untuk menanganalisis pertanggungan resiko terhadap mobil yang dijadikan objek sewa menyewa tersebut sewa menyewa mobil di Perusahaan Rent Car CV. Data untuk penelitian ini bersumber dari wawancara, obesrvasi dan studi dokumentasi. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah deskriptif analisis. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa CV. Harkat menyewakan mobil milik mitra kerjanya (pemilik mobil kepada pelanggan yang membutuhkan sewa mobil untuk keperluannya. Pemilik usaha memberikan harga kongsi kepada pemilik mobil sesuai dengan kesepakatan bersama dan untuk jangka waktu

  13. A practical introduction to computer vision with OpenCV

    Dawson-Howe, Kenneth

    2014-01-01

    Explains the theory behind basic computer vision and provides a bridge from the theory to practical implementation using the industry standard OpenCV libraries Computer Vision is a rapidly expanding area and it is becoming progressively easier for developers to make use of this field due to the ready availability of high quality libraries (such as OpenCV 2).  This text is intended to facilitate the practical use of computer vision with the goal being to bridge the gap between the theory and the practical implementation of computer vision. The book will explain how to use the relevant OpenCV

  14. Global risk from the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides by nuclear power plant accidents in the coming decades

    Christoudias, T.; Proestos, Y. [The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia (Cyprus); Lelieveld, J. [The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia (Cyprus); Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz (Germany)

    2014-07-01

    We estimate the global risk from the release and atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides from nuclear power plant accidents using the EMAC atmospheric chemistry-general circulation model. We included all nuclear reactors that are currently operational, under construction and planned or proposed. We implemented constant continuous emissions from each location in the model and simulated atmospheric transport and removal via dry and wet deposition processes over 20 years (2010-2030), driven by boundary conditions based on the IPCC A2 future emissions scenario. We present global overall and seasonal risk maps for potential surface layer concentrations and ground deposition of radionuclides, and estimate potential doses to humans from inhalation and ground-deposition exposures to radionuclides. We find that the risk of harmful doses due to inhalation is typically highest in the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter, due to relatively shallow boundary layer development and limited mixing. Based on the continued operation of the current nuclear power plants, we calculate that the risk of radioactive contamination to the citizens of the USA will remain to be highest worldwide, followed by India and France. By including stations under construction and those that are planned and proposed, our results suggest that the risk will become highest in China, followed by India and the USA.

  15. Energy choices and risk beliefs: is it just global warming and fear of a nuclear power plant accident?

    Greenberg, Michael; Truelove, Heather Barnes

    2011-05-01

    A survey of 3,200 U.S. residents focused on two issues associated with the use of nuclear and coal fuels to produce electrical energy. The first was the association between risk beliefs and preferences for coal and nuclear energy. As expected, concern about nuclear power plant accidents led to decreased support for nuclear power, and those who believed that coal causes global warming preferred less coal use. Yet other risk beliefs about the coal and nuclear energy fuel cycles were stronger or equal correlates of public preferences. The second issue is the existence of what we call acknowledged risk takers, respondents who favored increased reliance on nuclear energy, although also noting that there could be a serious nuclear plant accident, and those who favored greater coal use, despite acknowledging a link to global warming. The pro-nuclear group disproportionately was affluent educated white males, and the pro-coal group was relatively poor less educated African-American and Latino females. Yet both shared four similarities: older age, trust in management, belief that the energy facilities help the local economy, and individualistic personal values. These findings show that there is no single public with regard to energy preferences and risk beliefs. Rather, there are multiple populations with different viewpoints that surely would benefit by hearing a clear and comprehensive national energy life cycle policy from the national government. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Rapid Global River Flood Risk Assessment under Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios: An Extreme Case of Eurasian region

    Kwak, Young-joo; Magome, Jun; Hasegawa, Akira; Iwami, Yoichi

    2017-04-01

    Causing widespread devastation with massive economic damage and loss of human lives, flood disasters hamper economic growth and accelerate poverty particularly in developing countries. Globally, this trend will likely continue due to increase in flood magnitude and lack of preparedness for extreme events. In line with risk reduction efforts since the early 21st century, the monitors and governors of global river floods should pay attention to international scientific and policy communities for support to facilitate evidence-based policy making with a special interest in long-term changes due to climate change and socio-economic effects. Although advanced hydrological inundation models and risk models have been developed to reveal flood risk, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability at a river basin, it is obviously hard to identify the distribution and locations of continent-level flood risk based on national-level data. Therefore, we propose a methodological possibility for rapid global flood risk assessment with the results from its application to the two periods, i.e., Present (from 1980 to 2004) and Future (from 2075 to 2099). The method is particularly designed to effectively simplify complexities of a hazard area by calculating the differential inundation depth using GFID2M (global flood inundation depth 2-dimension model), despite low data availability. In this research, we addressed the question of which parts in the Eurasian region (8E to 180E, 0N to 60N) can be found as high-risk areas in terms of exposed population and economy in case of a 50-year return period flood. Economic losses were estimated according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenario, and the flood scale was defined using the annual maximum daily river discharge under the extreme conditions of climate change simulated with MRI-AGCM3.2S based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. As a preliminary result, the total potential economic loss in the

  17. Use of global coronary heart disease risk assessment in practice: a cross-sectional survey of a sample of U.S. physicians

    Shillinglaw Benjamin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Global coronary heart disease (CHD risk assessment is recommended to guide primary preventive pharmacotherapy. However, little is known about physicians' understanding and use of global CHD risk assessment. Our objective was to examine US physicians' awareness, use, and attitudes regarding global CHD risk assessment in clinical practice, and how these vary by provider specialty. Methods Using a web-based survey of US family physicians, general internists, and cardiologists, we examined awareness of tools available to calculate CHD risk, method and use of CHD risk assessment, attitudes towards CHD risk assessment, and frequency of using CHD risk assessment to guide recommendations of aspirin, lipid-lowering and blood pressure (BP lowering therapies for primary prevention. Characteristics of physicians indicating they use CHD risk assessments were compared in unadjusted and adjusted analyses. Results A total of 952 physicians completed the questionnaire, with 92% reporting awareness of tools available to calculate CHD global risk. Among those aware of such tools, over 80% agreed that CHD risk calculation is useful, improves patient care, and leads to better decisions about recommending preventive therapies. However, only 41% use CHD risk assessment in practice. The most commonly reported barrier to CHD risk assessment is that it is too time consuming. Among respondents who calculate global CHD risk, 69% indicated they use it to guide lipid lowering therapy recommendations; 54% use it to guide aspirin therapy recommendations; and 48% use it to guide BP lowering therapy. Only 40% of respondents who use global CHD risk routinely tell patients their risk. Use of a personal digital assistant or smart phone was associated with reported use of CHD risk assessment (adjusted OR 1.58; 95% CI 1.17-2.12. Conclusions Reported awareness of tools to calculate global CHD risk appears high, but the majority of physicians in this sample do not

  18. Guidelines on CV networking information flow optimization for Texas.

    2017-03-01

    Recognizing the fundamental role of information flow in future transportation applications, the research team investigated the quality and security of information flow in the connected vehicle (CV) environment. The research team identified key challe...

  19. Calibration of ADRET voltage generator type CV102. Program CODAV

    Lagarde, Gerard.

    1978-07-01

    The CODAV programm studied by the Metrology SES/SME laboratory is used for the calibration of ADRET voltage generator type CV.102. A JCAM.10 microcomputer run the measurement cycle and the printout of the results [fr

  20. Nutritive evaluation of Medicago truncutula (cv. jernalong) pasture ...

    Nutritive evaluation of Medicago truncutula (cv. jernalong) pasture for sheep. 1. Seasonal .... obtained by laboratory work, using in vitro techniques. (Engels et al. .... model that was used to explain 92,3% of the variance in. IVDOM content.

  1. Global prevalence of, and risk factors for, gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms: a meta-analysis.

    Eusebi, Leonardo H; Ratnakumaran, Raguprakash; Yuan, Yuhong; Solaymani-Dodaran, Masoud; Bazzoli, Franco; Ford, Alexander C

    2018-03-01

    Gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms are common in the community, but there has been no definitive systematic review and meta-analysis of data from all studies to estimate their global prevalence, or potential risk factors for them. Medline, Embase and Embase Classic were searched (until September 2016) to identify population-based studies that reported the prevalence of gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms in adults (≥15 years); gastro-oesophageal reflux was defined using symptom-based criteria or questionnaires. The prevalence was extracted for all studies, and according to the criteria used to define it. Pooled prevalence, according to study location and certain other characteristics, OR and 95% CIs were calculated. Of the 14 132 citations evaluated, 102 reported the prevalence of gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms in 108 separate study populations, containing 460 984 subjects. Prevalence varied according to country (from 2.5% in China to 51.2% in Greece) and criteria used to define gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms. When only studies using a weekly frequency of heart burn or regurgitation to define presence were considered, pooled prevalence was 13.3% (95% CI 12.0% to 14.6%). Prevalence was higher in subjects ≥50 years (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.12 to 1.54), smokers (OR 1.26; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.52), non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID)/aspirin users (OR 1.44; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.88) and obese individuals (OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.46 to 2.06). The prevalence of gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms varied strikingly among countries, even when similar definitions were used to define their presence. Prevalence was significantly higher in subjects ≥50 years, smokers, NSAID users and obese individuals, although these associations were modest. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  2. Evidence-based risk assessment and communication: a new global dengue-risk map for travellers and clinicians.

    Jentes, Emily S; Lash, R Ryan; Johansson, Michael A; Sharp, Tyler M; Henry, Ronnie; Brady, Oliver J; Sotir, Mark J; Hay, Simon I; Margolis, Harold S; Brunette, Gary W

    2016-06-01

    International travel can expose travellers to pathogens not commonly found in their countries of residence, like dengue virus. Travellers and the clinicians who advise and treat them have unique needs for understanding the geographic extent of risk for dengue. Specifically, they should assess the need for prevention measures before travel and ensure appropriate treatment of illness post-travel. Previous dengue-risk maps published in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Yellow Book lacked specificity, as there was a binary (risk, no risk) classification. We developed a process to compile evidence, evaluate it and apply more informative risk classifications. We collected more than 839 observations from official reports, ProMED reports and published scientific research for the period 2005-2014. We classified each location as frequent/continuous risk if there was evidence of more than 10 dengue cases in at least three of the previous 10 years. For locations that did not fit this criterion, we classified locations as sporadic/uncertain risk if the location had evidence of at least one locally acquired dengue case during the last 10 years. We used expert opinion in limited instances to augment available data in areas where data were sparse. Initial categorizations classified 134 areas as frequent/continuous and 140 areas as sporadic/uncertain. CDC subject matter experts reviewed all initial frequent/continuous and sporadic/uncertain categorizations and the previously uncategorized areas. From this review, most categorizations stayed the same; however, 11 categorizations changed from the initial determinations. These new risk classifications enable detailed consideration of dengue risk, with clearer meaning and a direct link to the evidence that supports the specific classification. Since many infectious diseases have dynamic risk, strong geographical heterogeneities and varying data quality and availability, using this approach for other diseases can

  3. Risk Assessment of Diabetes Mellitus by Chaotic Globals to Heart Rate Variability via Six Power Spectra

    Garner David M.

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: The priniciple objective here is to analyze cardiovascular dynamics in diabetic subjects by actions related to heart rate variability (HRV. The correlation of chaotic globals is vital to evaluate the probability of dynamical diseases.

  4. Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data.

    Muis, Sanne; Güneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Ward, Philip J

    2015-12-15

    An accurate understanding of flood risk and its drivers is crucial for effective risk management. Detailed risk projections, including uncertainties, are however rarely available, particularly in developing countries. This paper presents a method that integrates recent advances in global-scale modeling of flood hazard and land change, which enables the probabilistic analysis of future trends in national-scale flood risk. We demonstrate its application to Indonesia. We develop 1000 spatially-explicit projections of urban expansion from 2000 to 2030 that account for uncertainty associated with population and economic growth projections, as well as uncertainty in where urban land change may occur. The projections show that the urban extent increases by 215%-357% (5th and 95th percentiles). Urban expansion is particularly rapid on Java, which accounts for 79% of the national increase. From 2000 to 2030, increases in exposure will elevate flood risk by, on average, 76% and 120% for river and coastal floods. While sea level rise will further increase the exposure-induced trend by 19%-37%, the response of river floods to climate change is highly uncertain. However, as urban expansion is the main driver of future risk, the implementation of adaptation measures is increasingly urgent, regardless of the wide uncertainty in climate projections. Using probabilistic urban projections, we show that spatial planning can be a very effective adaptation strategy. Our study emphasizes that global data can be used successfully for probabilistic risk assessment in data-scarce countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Implementation of coordinated global serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccine cessation: risks of potential non-synchronous cessation.

    Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Hampton, Lee M; Thompson, Kimberly M

    2016-05-26

    The endgame for polio eradication involves coordinated global cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) with cessation of serotype 2 OPV (OPV2 cessation) implemented in late April and early May 2016 and cessation of serotypes 1 and 3 OPV (OPV13 cessation) currently planned for after 2018. The logistics associated with globally switching all use of trivalent OPV (tOPV) to bivalent OPV (bOPV) represent a significant undertaking, which may cause some complications, including delays that lead to different timing of the switch across shared borders. Building on an integrated global model for long-term poliovirus risk management, we consider the expected vulnerability of different populations to transmission of OPV2-related polioviruses as a function of time following the switch. We explore the relationship between the net reproduction number (Rn) of OPV2 at the time of the switch and the time until OPV2-related viruses imported from countries still using OPV2 can establish transmission. We also analyze some specific situations modeled after populations at high potential risk of circulating serotype 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) outbreaks in the event of a non-synchronous switch. Well-implemented tOPV immunization activities prior to the tOPV to bOPV switch (i.e., tOPV intensification sufficient to prevent the creation of indigenous cVDPV2 outbreaks) lead to sufficient population immunity to transmission to cause die-out of any imported OPV2-related viruses for over 6 months after the switch in all populations in the global model. Higher Rn of OPV2 at the time of the switch reduces the time until imported OPV2-related viruses can establish transmission and increases the time during which indigenous OPV2-related viruses circulate. Modeling specific connected populations suggests a relatively low vulnerability to importations of OPV2-related viruses that could establish transmission in the context of a non-synchronous switch from tOPV to bOPV, unless the gap

  6. From Thoughts To Action - Linking Practice, Science, Policy And Decision Making: Dissemination Activities Of The Global Risk Forum, GRF Davos

    Stal, Marc; Sutter, Corina; Ammann, Walter

    2010-05-01

    The world's growing population in combination with expanding urbanisation, globalisation and climate change has greatly aggravated the risk potential to all communities and nations. These increasing risks imply the intensification of worldwide disasters, hence collaborations and worldwide knowledge exchange to mitigate these negative impacts is mandatory. How can these exchange and collaboration activities take place? The Global Risk Forum, GRF Davos addresses the variety of risks that face communities with a special focus on climate change, natural hazards, environmental degradation as well as technical, biological risks, pandemics and terrorism - all across different political institutions, national and international organisations, countries and business sectors. One of GRF's main goals is to bridge the gap between science and practice and to promote and accelerate the worldwide exchange of know-how and experience. GRF Davos aims at targeting solutions and promoting good practice in integral risk management and climate change adaptation.. The Forum also provides and manages a network for decision-makers, practitioners and experts from politics, government, IGOs, business, science, NGOs, media and the public and works on maintaining and expanding these networks constantly to enable the dissemination of disaster and risk reduction techniques. In order to link practice, science, policy and decision making, GRF Davos has three pillars, the Risk Academy, the International Disaster and Risk Conferences and Workshops (IDRC) as well as the online Platform for Networks. With its pillars, the GRFs aims at reducing vulnerability for all types of risks and disasters to protect life, property, environment, critical infrastructure and all means of business for the worldwide community on a sustainable basis.

  7. The influence of spatial resolution on human health risk co-benefit estimates for global climate policy assessments.

    Shih, Hsiu-Ching; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Ma, Hwong-wen

    2015-03-15

    Assessment of the ability of climate policies to produce desired improvements in public health through co-benefits of air pollution reduction can consume resources in both time and research funds. These resources increase significantly as the spatial resolution of models increases. In addition, the level of spatial detail available in macroeconomic models at the heart of climate policy assessments is much lower than that available in traditional human health risk modeling. It is therefore important to determine whether increasing spatial resolution considerably affects risk-based decisions; which kinds of decisions might be affected; and under what conditions they will be affected. Human health risk co-benefits from carbon emissions reductions that bring about concurrent reductions in Particulate Matter (PM10) emissions is therefore examined here at four levels of spatial resolution (Uniform Nation, Uniform Region, Uniform County/city, Health Risk Assessment) in a case study of Taiwan as one of the geographic regions of a global macroeceonomic model, with results that are representative of small, industrialized nations within that global model. A metric of human health risk mortality (YOLL, years of life lost in life expectancy) is compared under assessments ranging from a "uniform simulation" in which there is no spatial resolution of changes in ambient air concentration under a policy to a "highly spatially resolved simulation" (called here Health Risk Assessment). PM10 is chosen in this study as the indicator of air pollution for which risks are assessed due to its significance as a co-benefit of carbon emissions reductions within climate mitigation policy. For the policy examined, the four estimates of mortality in the entirety of Taiwan are 747 YOLL, 834 YOLL, 984 YOLL and 916 YOLL, under Uniform Taiwan, Uniform Region, Uniform County and Health Risk Assessment respectively; or differences of 18%, 9%, 7% if the HRA methodology is taken as the baseline. While

  8. Favourable hypotensive effect after standardised tomato extract treatment in hypertensive subjects at high cardiovascular risk: a randomised controlled trial.

    Krasińska, Beata; Osińska, Angelika; Krasińska, Aleksandra; Osiński, Maciej; Rzymski, Piotr; Tykarski, Andrzej; Krasiński, Zbigniew

    2018-01-01

    Cardiovascular (CV) diseases remain a leading global cause of death. Lowering blood pressure (BP) reduces the risk of CV complications, especially stroke and acute coronary events, and it delays the progression of kidney disease. Adequate non-pharmacological treatment improves the effectiveness of the antihypertensive therapy. A Mediterranean diet with high content of vegetables (rich in tomatoes) is associated with a reduced CV risk. The main objective of the present study was to assess whether the addition of standardised tomato extract (STE) or acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) to standard antihypertensive therapy can improve BP control in patients with arterial hypertension (HT). The study involved 82 high-risk hypertensive patients. Patients with primary HT at high to a very high total CV risk were randomised in a blinded fashion to one of two groups, i.e. the ASA and STE group. The patients had two visits, a baseline visit and one after four weeks of treatment. In all the patients, during each visit, clinical BP and ambulatory BP measurements (ABPM) were performed. Platelet aggregation was determined using the VerifyNow analyser. After four weeks of treatment in the STE group, there was a statistically significant reduction in 24-h systolic BP, diastolic BP, and mean arterial pressure values measured in ABPM (p high CV risk. This effect, together with the anti-aggregatory effect, may indicate the pleiotropic effect of tomato extract. This fact justifies further research into functional foods and gives new insights into STE as a food supplement that could have new therapeutic and prophylactic uses for the treatment of hypertensive patients with high CV risk and especially with obesity.

  9. IRSN 2007 barometer: perception of risks and security by French people. Global results

    2007-07-01

    This report presents under the form of graphs and comments the results of the annual IRSN opinion poll on matters of risk and security. The IRSN is the French Institute of Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety. Different themes are analysed: the present concerns for French people (in the present society, for the environment, about industrial risks and the image of science), the perception of expertise (who should control an installation, the role and the image of scientific experts, access to expertise documents), the public interest in risk issues (topic of interest, participation to information sessions), the attitude in front of 30 risk situations (presently perceived risks, confidence in public authorities to ensure their protection, truth about information on hazards, hierarchy of 30 situations). The last part is dedicated to the nuclear domain (nuclear risk, skill and credibility of interveners)

  10. Managing cyber-risk and security in the global supply chain: a systems analysis approach to risk, structure and behaviour

    Sepúlveda Estay, Daniel Alberto

    -term legal ramifications. As a result, little information about attacks and their consequences is published. Supply chains continue to prepare for cyber-attacks through a mix of traditional risk and resilience frameworks, protecting their networks through patches, firewalls and antiviruses, or financially...

  11. A global approach to risk management: lessons from the nuclear industry

    Lazo, T.; Kaufer, B.

    2003-01-01

    The industry's nuclear safety experts are continuously striving to minimise the possible risk and extent of a nuclear accident, while nuclear regulatory, authorities work to ensure that all safety requirements are met. Relying on a combination of deterministic and probabilistic approaches, they are obtaining positive results in terms of both risk-informed regulation and nuclear safety management. This article addresses this aspect of risk management, as well as the management of radiation exposure risk. It looks into nuclear emergency planning, preparedness and management, and stresses the importance of coordinating potential protection approaches and providing effective communication should a nuclear accident occur. (authors)

  12. The IRSN 2006 barometer. The opinion on risks and security of the French population. Global results

    2006-01-01

    This report presents and comments the results of a survey during which a sample of the French population has been questioned on their current concerns (about the society, about the environment, about their opinion on industrial risks, on scientific expertise, on who should control a risky installation), the opinion on 28 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed, confidence in authorities, truth of information on hazards, hierarchy of the 28 situations, acceptability of installations), the opinion on the nuclear activity and industry (the nuclear risk, the credibility and expertise of interveners, and the issue of radioactive wastes and public debate)

  13. Forced sexual initiation, sexual intimate partner violence and HIV risk in women: A global review of the literature

    Stockman, Jamila K.; Lucea, Marguerite B.; Campbell, Jacquelyn C.

    2012-01-01

    Coerced or forced sexual initiation and sexual intimate partner violence (sexual IPV) contribute significantly to a woman’s risk for HIV infection. This review systematically examines global research (n=21 studies) published since 2000 on the role of coerced/forced sexual initiation and sexual IPV on HIV risk in women. In predominantly low- and middle-income countries, coerced/forced sexual initiation was associated with HIV/STIs, multiple and high-risk sex partners, and no condom use. Most studies using behaviorally specific terms for sexual IPV found strong associations between sexual IPV and HIV risk behaviors. In contrast, studies using less specific definitions often failed to find these significant associations. To develop more comprehensive HIV prevention programs, future efforts should integrate behaviorally specific terms into assessing prevalence of sexual IPV and its association with HIV risk, consider cultural differences, and identify causal pathways between coerced or forced sexual initiation, HIV risk behaviors and HIV/STI infection. PMID:23143750

  14. Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).

    Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2018-08-01

    Climate change will substantially exacerbate extreme temperature and heatwaves. The impacts will be more intense across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a region mostly characterized by hot and arid climate, already intolerable for human beings in many parts. In this study, daily climate data from 17 fine-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are acquired to calculate wet-bulb temperature and investigate the mortality risk for people aged over 65 years caused by excessive heat stress across the MENA region. Spatially adaptive temperature thresholds are implemented for quantifying the mortality risk, and the analysis is conducted for the historical period of 1951-2005 and two future scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during the 2006-2100 period. Results show that the mortality risk will increase in distant future to 8-20 times higher than that of the historical period if no climate change mitigation is implemented. The coastal regions of the Red sea, Persian Gulf, and Mediterranean Sea indicate substantial increase in mortality risk. Nonetheless, the risk ratio will be limited to 3-7 times if global warming is limited to 2 °C. Climate change planning and adaptation is imperative for mitigating heat-related mortality risk across the region. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Measurement of ECG abnormalities and cardiovascular risk classification: a cohort study of primary care patients in the Netherlands

    de Groot, A.; Bots, M.L.; Rutten, F.H.; den Ruijter, H.M.; Numans, M.E.; Vaartjes, I.

    2015-01-01

    Background: GPs need accurate tools for cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment. Abnormalities in resting electrocardiograms (ECGs) relate to increased CV risk. Aim: To determine whether measurement of ECG abnormalities on top of established risk estimation (SCORE) improves CV risk classification in a

  16. Balancing the benefits and risks of public-private partnerships to address the global double burden of malnutrition.

    Kraak, Vivica I; Harrigan, Paige B; Lawrence, Mark; Harrison, Paul J; Jackson, Michaela A; Swinburn, Boyd

    2012-03-01

    Transnational food, beverage and restaurant companies, and their corporate foundations, may be potential collaborators to help address complex public health nutrition challenges. While UN system guidelines are available for private-sector engagement, non-governmental organizations (NGO) have limited guidelines to navigate diverse opportunities and challenges presented by partnering with these companies through public-private partnerships (PPP) to address the global double burden of malnutrition. We conducted a search of electronic databases, UN system websites and grey literature to identify resources about partnerships used to address the global double burden of malnutrition. A narrative summary provides a synthesis of the interdisciplinary literature identified. We describe partnership opportunities, benefits and challenges; and tools and approaches to help NGO engage with the private sector to address global public health nutrition challenges. PPP benefits include: raising the visibility of nutrition and health on policy agendas; mobilizing funds and advocating for research; strengthening food-system processes and delivery systems; facilitating technology transfer; and expanding access to medications, vaccines, healthy food and beverage products, and nutrition assistance during humanitarian crises. PPP challenges include: balancing private commercial interests with public health interests; managing conflicts of interest; ensuring that co-branded activities support healthy products and healthy eating environments; complying with ethical codes of conduct; assessing partnership compatibility; and evaluating partnership outcomes. NGO should adopt a systematic and transparent approach using available tools and processes to maximize benefits and minimize risks of partnering with transnational food, beverage and restaurant companies to effectively target the global double burden of malnutrition.

  17. IRSN 2011 opinion survey. The perception of risks and safety by French people. Global results

    2011-01-01

    Like every year, this report presents and comments the results of an opinion survey on risks, and more particularly on nuclear and radiological risks. The first part addresses the current concerns of French people (the main concerns in the present society and with respect to the environment, how science is considered). The second part addresses the opinion on expertise (who should control a hazardous installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist bodies). The third part examines the reaction of people in front of 33 different hazardous situations (risks to which people feel being exposed, confidence in authorities, confidence in information on hazards, hierarchy of 33 situations and relationship with installation acceptability). The fourth part addresses the nuclear issue (nuclear risk, ability and credibility of nuclear actors, the Chernobyl accident, radioactive wastes, demand of information on the nuclear risk).

  18. The IRSN 2008 barometer. The opinion on risks and security of the French population. Global results

    2008-01-01

    This report presents and comments the results of a survey during which a sample of the French population has been questioned on their current concerns (about the society, about the environment, about quantitative criteria of risk management and about the image of science), on their opinion of scientific expertise (who should control a risky installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist structures), the opinion on 31 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed, confidence in authorities, truth of information on hazards, hierarchy of the 31 situations), the opinion on the nuclear activity and industry (the nuclear risk, the credibility and expertise of interveners), incidents which occurred in 2007, the demand of information on the nuclear risk), and on their opinion about radiotherapy accidents in France

  19. Risk Based Monitoring (RBM: A global study focusing on perception and merits among clinical investigational sites

    Prajna P. Kumar

    2016-12-01

    Conclusion: This unique study performed across ten emerging and developed countries strongly supported the need for systematic global training, education, and implementation of RBM regulatory guidance, with an aim for better safety of subjects and improved quality of clinical trial data. Furthermore, studies with larger sample sizes are recommended to provide an evidence-based approach.

  20. Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

    Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P.R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

    2016-01-01

    There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided

  1. Data poverty: A global evaluation for 2009 to 2013 - implications for sustainable development and disaster risk reduction

    Leidig, Mathias; Teeuw, Richard M.; Gibson, Andrew D.

    2016-08-01

    The article presents a time series (2009-2013) analysis for a new version of the ;Digital Divide; concept that developed in the 1990s. Digital information technologies, such as the Internet, mobile phones and social media, provide vast amounts of data for decision-making and resource management. The Data Poverty Index (DPI) provides an open-source means of annually evaluating global access to data and information. The DPI can be used to monitor aspects of data and information availability at global and national levels, with potential application at local (district) levels. Access to data and information is a major factor in disaster risk reduction, increased resilience to disaster and improved adaptation to climate change. In that context, the DPI could be a useful tool for monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030). The effects of severe data poverty, particularly limited access to geoinformatic data, free software and online training materials, are discussed in the context of sustainable development and disaster risk reduction. Unlike many other indices, the DPI is underpinned by datasets that are consistently provided annually for almost all the countries of the world and can be downloaded without restriction or cost.

  2. Assessing the Effects of Information About Global Population Growth on Risk Perceptions and Support for Mitigation and Prevention Strategies.

    Dawson, Ian G J

    2018-05-16

    The human population is forecast to increase by 3-4 billion people during this century and many scientists have expressed concerns that this could increase the likelihood of certain adverse events (e.g., climate change and resource shortages). Recent research shows that these concerns are mirrored in public risk perceptions and that these perceptions correlate with a willingness to adopt mitigation behaviors (e.g., reduce resource consumption) and preventative actions (e.g., support actions to limit growth). However, little research has assessed the factors that influence risk perceptions of global population growth (GPG). To contribute to this important goal, this article presents three studies that examined how risk perceptions of GPG might be influenced by textual-visual representations (like those in media and Internet articles) of the potential effects of GPG. Study 1 found that a textual narrative that highlighted the potential negative (cf. positive) consequences of GPG led to higher perceived risk and greater willingness to adopt mitigation behaviors, but not to support preventative actions. Notably, the influence of the narratives on perceived risk was largely moderated by the participant's prior knowledge and perceptions of GPG. Contrary to expectations, studies 2 and 3 revealed, respectively, that photographs depicting GPG-related imagery and graphs depicting GPG rates had no significant effect on the perceived risk of GPG or the willingness to embrace mitigation or preventative actions. However, study 3 found that individuals with higher "graph literacy" perceived GPG as a higher risk and were more willing to adopt mitigation behaviors and support preventative actions. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Global analysis of threat status reveals higher extinction risk in tropical than in temperate bird sister species

    Reif Jiří

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Given increasing pressures upon biodiversity, identification of species’ traits related to elevated extinction risk is useful for more efficient allocation of limited resources for nature conservation. Despite its need, such a global analysis was lacking in the case of birds. Therefore, we performed this exercise for avian sister species using information about their global extinction risk from IUCN Red List. We focused on 113 pairs of sister species, each containing a threatened and an unthreatened species to factor out the effects of common evolutionary history on the revealed relationship. We collected data on five traits with expected relationships to species’ extinction risk based on previous studies performed at regional or national levels: breeding habitat (recognizing forest, grassland, wetland and oceanic species, latitudinal range position (temperate and tropics species, migration strategy (migratory and resident species, diet (carnivorous, insectivorous, herbivorous and omnivorous species and body mass. We related the extinction risk using IUCN threat level categories to species’ traits using generalised linear mixed effects models expecting lower risk for forest, temperate, omnivorous and smaller-bodied species. Our expectation was confirmed only in the case of latitudinal range position, as we revealed higher threat level for tropical than for temperate species. This relationship was robust to different methods of threat level expression and cannot be explained by a simple association of high bird species richness with the tropical zone. Instead, it seems that tropical species are more threatened because of their intrinsic characteristics such as slow life histories, adaptations to stable environments and small geographic ranges. These characteristics are obviously disadvantageous in conditions of current human-induced environmental perturbations. Moreover, given the absence of habitat effects, our study indicates that such

  4. A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

    Allen, Craig D.; Macalady, A.K.; Chenchouni, H.; Bachelet, D.; McDowell, N.; Vennetier, Michel; Kitzberger, T.; Rigling, A.; Breshears, D.D.; Hogg, E.H.(T.); Gonzalez, P.; Fensham, R.; Zhang, Z.; Castro, J.; Demidova, N.; Lim, J.-H.; Allard, G.; Running, S.W.; Semerci, A.; Cobb, N.

    2010-01-01

    Greenhouse gas emissions have significantly altered global climate, and will continue to do so in the future. Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress associated with climate change could fundamentally alter the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in many regions. Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climate-induced physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to track observations of climate-driven tree mortality globally. Here we present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress. Although episodic mortality occurs in the absence of climate change, studies compiled here suggest that at least some of the world's forested ecosystems already may be responding to climate change and raise concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. This further suggests risks to ecosystem services, including the loss of sequestered forest carbon and associated atmospheric feedbacks. Our review also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system. Overall, our review reveals the potential for amplified tree mortality due to drought and heat in forests worldwide.

  5. Global challenges in the risk assessment of nanomaterials: Relevance to South Africa

    Mary Gulumian

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Internationally, there are efforts to develop standardised toxicity testing and risk assessmentmethods for engineered nanomaterials (ENMs. To this end, health risk assessments need tobe conducted on ENMs synthesised in South Africa. Country-specific risk characterisationrequires specific exposure assessments for those ENMs for which the likelihood exists foroccupational and environmental exposure in that country. A challenge in hazard identificationand risk assessment related to ENMs, regardless of country of origin, is that data on toxicity,carcinogenicity, pharmacokinetics, and occupational or environmental exposure are generallynot available for most ENMs. Although the mechanisms previously identified as importantin the toxicity and carcinogenicity of particles and fibres may be applicable, the possibilityexists that the unusual physicochemical properties of ENMs may give rise to unique, andas yet unidentified, adverse effects. Moreover, generalised exposure scenarios that considerthe life cycle of the agent have not been developed and are needed for the complete riskcharacterisation of ENMs. As health risk assessment is both resource and labour intensive, it isimperative to identify the aims of such an exercise prior to embarking on large-scale projects,to ensure that the data most useful for public health decision-making is provided. Identifyingpriorities in South Africa, in coordination with international efforts, can facilitate the effectiveuse of research efforts for risk assessment and risk management decision-making.

  6. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2016

    Moesgaard Iburg, Kim

    2017-01-01

    surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs......), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR......) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated...

  7. Developing methodology and tools for integrated assessment of the risks of global environmental change: Analyzing uncertainty, risk assessment, risk perception, expert judgment, and a case study on sea level rise. Report of collaborative research, July 1991--June 1993: Final report

    Lancaster, J.; Shlyakhter, A.; Wilson, R.

    1993-01-01

    Members of Congress, federal administrators, state regulators, city planners, corporate strategists and private citizens face decisions that may or may not warrant considering the potential impacts of climate change. The extent to which the global warming issue will weigh in these many decisions will be determined by (a) expert scientific judgement about global warming and its potential impacts, (b) public perception of the global warming problem, (c) uncertainties, and (d) other legal and political factors controlling the entry of a large-scale environmental issue into many avenues of decision making. The complexity and uncertainty surrounding the problem of climate change present new challenges to our ability to formulate rational decisions. The authors provide a methodical approach to characterizing the risks of global warming in a way that will be useful to decision makers

  8. Food Safety Management in a Global Environment: The Role of Risk Assessment Models

    Fuentes-Pila, Joaquin; Jimeno, Vicente; Manzano, Amparo; Rodriguez Monroy, Carlos; Mar Fernandez, Maria Del

    2006-01-01

    Quantitative risk assessment models are playing a minor role in the development of the new EU legal framework for food safety. There is a tendency of the EU institutions to apply the precautionary principle versus the predisposition of the USA institutions to rely on risk analysis. This paper provides a comparison of the role played by quantitative risk assessment models in the development of new policies on food safety in the EU and in the USA, focusing on a study case: the supply chain of s...

  9. Risk management for existing energy facilities. A global approach to numerical safety goals

    Pate-Cornell, M.E.

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents a structured set of numerical safety goals for risk management of existing energy facilities. The rationale behind these safety goals is based on principles of equity and economic efficiency. Some of the issues involved when using probabilistic risk analyses results for safety decisions are discussed. A brief review of existing safety targets and open-quotes floating numbersclose quotes is presented, and a set of safety goals for industrial risk management is proposed. Relaxation of these standards for existing facilities, the relevance of the lifetime of the plant, the treatment of uncertainties, and problems of failure dependencies are discussed briefly. 17 refs., 1 fig

  10. Cascading effect of economic globalization on human risks of scrub typhus and tick-borne rickettsial diseases.

    Kuo, Chi-Chien; Huang, Jing-Lun; Shu, Pei-Yun; Lee, Pei-Lung; Kelt, Douglas A; Wang, Hsi-Chieh

    2012-09-01

    The increase in global travel and trade has facilitated the dissemination of disease vectors. Globalization can also indirectly affect vector-borne diseases through the liberalization of cross-border trade, which has far-reaching, worldwide effects on agricultural practices and may in turn influence vectors through the modification of the ecological landscape. While the cascading effect of economic globalization on vector-borne diseases, sometimes acting synergistically with regional agricultural policy, could be substantial and have significant economic, agricultural, and public health implications, research into this remains very limited. We evaluated how abandonment of rice paddies in Taiwan after joining the World Trade Organization, along with periodic plowing, an agricultural policy to reduce farm pests in abandoned fields can unexpectedly influence risks to diseases transmitted by ticks and chiggers (larval trombiculid mites), which we collected from their small-mammal hosts. Sampling was limited to abandoned (fallow) and plowed fields due to the challenge of trapping small mammals in flooded rice paddies. Striped field mice (Apodemus agrarius) are the main hosts for both vectors. They harbored six times more ticks and three times more chiggers in fallow than in plowed plots. The proportion of ticks infected with Rickettsia spp. (etiologic agent of spotted fever) was three times higher in fallow plots, while that of Orientia tsutsugamushi (scrub typhus) in chiggers was similar in both treatments. Fallow plots had more ground cover and higher vegetation than plowed ones. Moreover, ticks and chiggers in both field types were dominated by species known to infest humans. Because ticks and chiggers should exhibit very low survival in flooded rice paddies, we propose that farm abandonment in Taiwan, driven by globalization, may have inadvertently led to increased risks of spotted fever and scrub typhus. However, periodic plowing can unintentionally mitigate vector

  11. Potential impact of single-risk-factor versus total risk management for the prevention of cardiovascular events in Seychelles.

    Ndindjock, Roger; Gedeon, Jude; Mendis, Shanthi; Paccaud, Fred; Bovet, Pascal

    2011-04-01

    To assess the prevalence of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors in Seychelles, a middle-income African country, and compare the cost-effectiveness of single-risk-factor management (treating individuals with arterial blood pressure ≥ 140/90 mmHg and/or total serum cholesterol ≥ 6.2 mmol/l) with that of management based on total CV risk (treating individuals with a total CV risk ≥ 10% or ≥ 20%). CV risk factor prevalence and a CV risk prediction chart for Africa were used to estimate the 10-year risk of suffering a fatal or non-fatal CV event among individuals aged 40-64 years. These figures were used to compare single-risk-factor management with total risk management in terms of the number of people requiring treatment to avert one CV event and the number of events potentially averted over 10 years. Treatment for patients with high total CV risk (≥ 20%) was assumed to consist of a fixed-dose combination of several drugs (polypill). Cost analyses were limited to medication. A total CV risk of ≥ 10% and ≥ 20% was found among 10.8% and 5.1% of individuals, respectively. With single-risk-factor management, 60% of adults would need to be treated and 157 cardiovascular events per 100000 population would be averted per year, as opposed to 5% of adults and 92 events with total CV risk management. Management based on high total CV risk optimizes the balance between the number requiring treatment and the number of CV events averted. Total CV risk management is much more cost-effective than single-risk-factor management. These findings are relevant for all countries, but especially for those economically and demographically similar to Seychelles.

  12. The IRSN 2010 barometer. The opinion on risks and security of the French population. Global results

    2010-01-01

    This report presents and comments the results of a survey during which a sample of the French population has been questioned on their current concerns (about the society, about the environment, about the image of science), on their opinion on scientific expertise (who should control a risky installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist structures), the opinion on 32 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed, confidence in authorities, truth of information on hazards, hierarchy of the 32 situations), the opinion on the nuclear activity and industry (the nuclear risk, the credibility and expertise of interveners, incidents which occurred in 2008, the demand of information on the nuclear risk)

  13. The IRSN 2009 barometer. The opinion on risks and security of the French population. Global results

    2009-01-01

    This report presents and comments the results of a survey during which a sample of the French population has been questioned on their current concerns (about the society, about the environment, about the image of science), on their opinion on scientific expertise (who should control a risky installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist structures), the opinion on 31 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed, confidence in authorities, truth of information on hazards, hierarchy of the 31 situations), the opinion on the nuclear activity and industry (the nuclear risk, the credibility and expertise of interveners, incidents which occurred in 2008, the demand of information on the nuclear risk)

  14. AUSERA: Large-Scale Automated Security Risk Assessment of Global Mobile Banking Apps

    Chen, Sen; Meng, Guozhu; Su, Ting; Fan, Lingling; Xue, Yinxing; Liu, Yang; Xu, Lihua; Xue, Minhui; Li, Bo; Hao, Shuang

    2018-01-01

    Contemporary financial technology (FinTech) that enables cashless mobile payment has been widely adopted by financial institutions, such as banks, due to its convenience and efficiency. However, FinTech has also made massive and dynamic transactions susceptible to security risks. Given large financial losses caused by such vulnerabilities, regulatory technology (RegTech) has been developed, but more comprehensive security risk assessment is specifically desired to develop robust, scalable, an...

  15. Risks for the global freshwater system at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

    Döll, Petra; Trautmann, Tim; Gerten, Dieter; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Ostberg, Sebastian; Saaed, Fahad; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

    2018-04-01

    To support implementation of the Paris Agreement, the new HAPPI ensemble of 20 bias-corrected simulations of four climate models was used to drive two global hydrological models, WaterGAP and LPJmL, for assessing freshwater-related hazards and risks in worlds approximately 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer than pre-industrial. Quasi-stationary HAPPI simulations are better suited than transient CMIP-like simulations for assessing hazards at the two targeted long-term global warming (GW) levels. We analyzed seven hydrological hazard indicators that characterize freshwater-related hazards for humans, freshwater biota and vegetation. Using a strict definition for significant differences, we identified for all but one indicator that areas with either significantly wetter or drier conditions (calculated as percent changes from 2006–2015) are smaller in the 1.5 °C world. For example, 7 day high flow is projected to increase significantly on 11% and 21% of the global land area at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, respectively. However, differences between hydrological hazards at the two GW levels are significant on less than 12% of the area. GW affects a larger area and more people by increases—rather than by decreases—of mean annual and 1-in-10 dry year streamflow, 7 day high flow, and groundwater recharge. The opposite is true for 7 day low flow, maximum snow storage, and soil moisture in the driest month of the growing period. Mean annual streamflow shows the lowest projected percent changes of all indicators. Among country groups, low income countries and lower middle income countries are most affected by decreased low flows and increased high flows, respectively, while high income countries are least affected by such changes. The incremental impact between 1.5 °C and 2 °C on high flows would be felt most by low income and lower middle income countries, the effect on soil moisture and low flows most by high income countries.

  16. Global financial crisis, banking crisis and first country risk in the viewpoint of domestic risk rating agencies

    Dr.Sc. Ingrid Shuli

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In a period of dire financial crisis, with which all countries seem to cope, it seemed interesting to analyse the assessment of the risk for our country, viewed from the vantage point of our domestic rating agencies, but also compared to assessments made to our country by international rating agencies, such as Moody’s rating agency, Standard & Poor rating agency, Fitch ratings agency etc. The objective of this study is to recognize indicators and factors affecting the risk assessment and rating of a country, and evaluate whether there has been an impact of the financial crisis faced by other countries in the rating given to Albanian by domestic and foreign agencies. We stopped at the history of earlier financial crisis development to understand bewtter what is happening in this financial crisis. We shall develop upon a wide existing literature, and a range of credible resources such as the IMF, the World Bank, the International Institute of Finance, Economic Intelligence Unit, and local official data sources, eg. The Bank of Albania and INSTAT.

  17. Global Asset Pricing: Is There a Role for Long-run Consumption Risk?

    Rangvid, Jesper; Schmelling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    We estimate long-run consumption-based asset pricing models using a comprehensive set of international test assets, including broad equity market portfolios, international value/growth portfolios, and international bond portfolios. We find that differences in returns across assets within a countr...... that consumption growth is more predictable over short to medium-run horizons than over longer horizons and that empirical evidence of a de- clining risk aversion parameter estimate in long-run risk models has to be interpreted with care....... are sometimes (and most prominently for the U.S.) better captured by the assets' exposure to long-run consumption risk as opposed to their exposure to one-period changes in consumption (the canonical consumption CAPM). Across countries, however, exposure to long-run consumption risk does not provide a better...... fit than the canonical consumption CAPM. Thus, when characterizing the cross-country distribution of returns, long-run consumption risk does not seem to play any particular role, even if long-run risk is important for explaining the cross section of expected returns in the U.S. Furthermore, we show...

  18. Alimentary Habits, Physical Activity, and Framingham Global Risk Score in Metabolic Syndrome

    Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo, E-mail: anamariafeoli@hotmail.com [Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul (PUCRS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil)

    2014-04-15

    Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p < 0.001). We obtained a reduction for intermediate risk in 25.7% of subjects. After intervention, there was a significant reduction (p < 0.01) on cardiovascular age, this being more significant in groups DIP (5.2%) and DIPE (5.3%). Proposed interventions produced beneficial effects for reducing cardiovascular risk score. This study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases.

  19. [Syncope and work: role of the occupational physician and global risk stratification].

    Barbic, F; Angaroni, L; Orlandi, M; Costantino, G; Dipaola, E; Borleri, D; Borchini, R; D'Adda, F; Perego, F; Borella, M; Galli, A; Solbiati, M; Scanella, E; Casazza, G; Seghizzi, P; Furlan, R

    2011-01-01

    Safety risk for subjects suffering from syncope while working has not been as yet addressed by occupational medicine. The present study was aimed at evaluating a new developed methodology for job tasks risk stratification in patients with syncope. During a work-shop on syncope and occupational risk, 149 occupational physicians (OP) with about 10 years of clinical experience were asked to fulfil a Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) concerning the doctor's estimated potential damage (D) to the worker and the probability of a damage to occur (P) should syncope take place during the job task. Five job tasks characterized by different risk for safety (1, driving; 2, toxic products handling; 3, job performed closed to hot surfaces o free flames; 4, surgical activity; 5, office job) were identified. OP correctly stratified the risk associated to the different job tasks in patients with syncope. Unexpectedly, task #3 was given a risk similar to that obtained in drivers. This might be of paramount clinical and social importance when patients with syncope have to return to their job tasks.

  20. Alimentary Habits, Physical Activity, and Framingham Global Risk Score in Metabolic Syndrome

    Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo

    2014-01-01

    Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p < 0.001). We obtained a reduction for intermediate risk in 25.7% of subjects. After intervention, there was a significant reduction (p < 0.01) on cardiovascular age, this being more significant in groups DIP (5.2%) and DIPE (5.3%). Proposed interventions produced beneficial effects for reducing cardiovascular risk score. This study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases

  1. IRSN 2015 opinion survey. The perception of risks and safety by French people. Global results

    El Jammal, Marie-Helene; Mur, Emmanuelle; Rollinger, Francois; Schuler, Matthieu; Tchernia, Jean-Francois

    2015-07-01

    Like every year, this report presents and comments the results of an opinion survey on risks, and more particularly on risks related to nuclear and radiological activities. The first part addresses the current concerns of French people (main concerns in the present society, with respect to the environment, and risks related to industrial installations). The second part addresses the opinion on expertise (the role and image of experts, diffusion and sharing of scientific expertise, and who should control a hazardous installation). The third part examines the reaction of people in front of 34 different hazardous situations (risks to which people feel being exposed, confidence people have in authorities to protect them, confidence in information on hazards, hierarchy of the 34 situations according to three different aspects, and relationship with installation acceptability). The fourth part addresses the nuclear domain: expectations related to the control of the nuclear risk, fear of a severe accident, benefits and drawbacks of nuclear energy, expertise and credibility of interveners in the nuclear sector. The fifth part addresses the presence of radon in dwellings (awareness of the risk, measures related to the control of radon in dwellings)

  2. Global risk mapping for major diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus

    Samson Leta

    2018-02-01

    Conclusions: With 215 countries/territories potentially suitable for the most important arboviral disease vectors and more than half of these reporting cases, arboviral diseases are indeed a global public health threat. The increasing proportion of reports that include multiple arboviral diseases highlights the expanding range of their common transmission vectors. The shared features of these arboviral diseases should motivate efforts to combine interventions against these diseases.

  3. Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006 – 2007

    Tucker Compton J; Small Jennifer; Chretien Jean-Paul; Anyamba Assaf; Linthicum Kenneth J

    2006-01-01

    Abstract Background El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hem...

  4. Anonymous voting for multi-dimensional CV quantum system

    Shi Rong-Hua; Xiao Yi; Shi Jin-Jing; Guo Ying; Lee, Moon-Ho

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the design of anonymous voting protocols, CV-based binary-valued ballot and CV-based multi-valued ballot with continuous variables (CV) in a multi-dimensional quantum cryptosystem to ensure the security of voting procedure and data privacy. The quantum entangled states are employed in the continuous variable quantum system to carry the voting information and assist information transmission, which takes the advantage of the GHZ-like states in terms of improving the utilization of quantum states by decreasing the number of required quantum states. It provides a potential approach to achieve the efficient quantum anonymous voting with high transmission security, especially in large-scale votes. (paper)

  5. Retinopathy of prematurity: a global perspective of the epidemics, population of babies at risk and implications for control.

    Gilbert, Clare

    2008-02-01

    Globally at least 50,000 children are blind from retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) which is now a significant cause of blindness in many middle income countries in Latin American and Eastern Europe. Retinopathy of prematurity is also being reported from the emerging economies of India and China. The characteristics of babies developing severe disease varies, with babies in middle and low income countries having a much wider range of birth weights and gestational ages than is currently the case in industrialized countries. Rates of disease requiring treatment also tend to be higher in middle and low income countries suggesting that babies are being exposed to risk factors which are, to a large extent, being controlled in industrialised countries. The reasons for this "third epidemic" of ROP are discussed as well as strategies for control, including the need for locally relevant, evidence based criteria which ensure that all babies at risk are examined.

  6. An Interactive Risk Detection Tool to Aid Decision-Making in Global Mangrove Restoration

    Goldberg, L.; Lagomasino, D.

    2017-12-01

    Mangrove ecosystems hold high ecological and economic value in coastal communities worldwide; detecting potential regions of mangrove stress is therefore critical to strategic planning of forest and coastal resources. In order to address the need for a unified risk management system for mangrove loss, a Risk Evaluation for MAngroves Portal (REMaP) was developed to identify the locations and causes of mangrove degradation worldwide, as well as project future areas of stress or loss. Long-term Earth observations from LANDSAT, MODIS, and TRMM were used in identifying regions with low, medium, and high vulnerability. Regions were categorized by vulnerability level based upon disturbance metrics in NDVI, land surface temperature, and precipitation using designated thresholds. Natural risks such as erosion and degradation were also evaluated through an analysis of NDVI time series trends from calendar year 1984 to 2017. Future trends in ecosystem vulnerability and resiliency were modeled using IPCC climate scenarios. Risk maps for anthropogenic-based disturbances such as urbanization and the expansion of agriculture and aquaculture through rice, rubber, shrimp, and oil palm farming were also included. The natural and anthropogenic risk factors evaluated were then aggregated to generate a cumulative estimate for total mangrove vulnerability in each region. This interactive modeling tool can aid decision-making on the regional, national, and international levels on an ongoing basis to continuously identify areas best suited for mangrove restoration measures, assisting governments and local communities in addressing a wide range of Sustainable Development Goals for coastal areas.

  7. IRSN 2017 opinion survey. The perception of risks and safety by French people. Global results

    El Jammal, Marie-Helene; Charron, Sylvie; Mur, Emmanuelle; Schuler, Matthieu; Tchernia, Jean-francois

    2017-07-01

    Like every year, this report presents and comments the results of an opinion survey on risks, and more particularly on risks related to nuclear and radiological activities. The first part addresses the current concerns of French people (main concerns in the present society, with respect to the environment, and risks related to industrial installations). The second part addresses the opinion on expertise (the role and image of experts, diffusion and sharing of scientific expertise, and the perception of pluralistic structures). The third part examines the reaction of people in front of 34 different hazardous situations (risks to which people feel being exposed, confidence people have in authorities to protect them, confidence in information on hazards, hierarchy of the 34 situations according to three different aspects, and relationship with installation acceptability). The fourth part addresses the nuclear domain: expectations related to the control of the nuclear risk, benefits and drawbacks of nuclear energy, fear of a severe accident, attention given by French people to nuclear energy, expertise and credibility of interveners in the nuclear sector

  8. IRSN 2016 opinion survey. The perception of risks and safety by French people. Global results

    El Jammal, Marie-Helene; Charron, Sylvie; Mur, Emmanuelle; Schuler, Matthieu; Tchernia, Jean-francois

    2016-07-01

    Like every year, this report presents and comments the results of an opinion survey on risks, and more particularly on risks related to nuclear and radiological activities. The first part addresses the current concerns of French people (main concerns in the present society, with respect to the environment, and risks related to industrial installations). The second part addresses the opinion on expertise (the role and image of experts, diffusion and sharing of scientific expertise, and the perception of pluralistic structures). The third part examines the reaction of people in front of 34 different hazardous situations (risks to which people feel being exposed, confidence people have in authorities to protect them, confidence in information on hazards, hierarchy of the 34 situations according to three different aspects, and relationship with installation acceptability). The fourth part addresses the nuclear domain: expectations related to the control of the nuclear risk, fear of a severe accident, benefits and drawbacks of nuclear energy, expertise and credibility of interveners in the nuclear sector, fear of serious nuclear accidents, perception of the two main nuclear accidents: Chernobyl (1986) and Fukushima (2011)

  9. Current medical research funding and frameworks are insufficient to address the health risks of global environmental change.

    Ebi, Kristie L; Semenza, Jan C; Rocklöv, Joacim

    2016-11-11

    Three major international agreements signed in 2015 are key milestones for transitioning to more sustainable and resilient societies: the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development; the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction; and the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Together, these agreements underscore the critical importance of understanding and managing the health risks of global changes, to ensure continued population health improvements in the face of significant social and environmental change over this century. BODY: Funding priorities of major health institutions and organizations in the U.S. and Europe do not match research investments with needs to inform implementation of these international agreements. In the U.S., the National Institutes of Health commit 0.025 % of their annual research budget to climate change and health. The European Union Seventh Framework Programme committed 0.08 % of the total budget to climate change and health; the amount committed under Horizon 2020 was 0.04 % of the budget. Two issues apparently contributing to this mismatch are viewing climate change primarily as an environmental problem, and therefore the responsibility of other research streams; and narrowly framing research into managing the health risks of climate variability and change from the perspective of medicine and traditional public health. This reductionist, top-down perspective focuses on proximate, individual level risk factors. While highly successful in reducing disease burdens, this framing is insufficient to protect health and well-being over a century that will be characterized by profound social and environmental changes. International commitments in 2015 underscored the significant challenges societies will face this century from climate change and other global changes. However, the low priority placed on understanding and managing the associated health risks by national and international research

  10. Instant OpenCV for iOS

    Kornyakov, Kirill

    2013-01-01

    Filled with practical, step-by-step instructions and clear explanations for the most important and useful tasks. This book uses a very practical approach, with each recipe and their associated sample projects or examples focusing on a particular aspect of the technology.This book is intended for OpenCV developers who are interested in porting their applications to the iOS platform. Basic experience with OpenCV, computer vision, Objective C, and other iOS tools is encouraged.

  11. The IRSN 2012 barometer. The opinion on risks and security of the French population. Global results

    El Jammal, Marie-Helene; Rollinger, Francois; Mur, Emmanuelle

    2012-01-01

    This report presents and comments the results of a survey during which a sample of the French population has been questioned on their current concerns (what is the most concerning issue in the present society and in the environment, science within concerns), on their opinion on scientific expertise (who should control a risky installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist structures), on their opinion on 33 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed, confidence in authorities to protect them, truth of information on hazards, hierarchy of the 33 situations), on their opinion on the nuclear activity and industry (the nuclear risk, the credibility and expertise of interveners), and on the Fukushima accident (perception of the accident, quality of information, expectations on the assessment of nuclear power stations)

  12. Risk-evaluation of Hi-tech Enterprise in the Process of Approaching Global Market

    Xiang Laisheng; Guo Yajun; Li Zhanfang

    2007-01-01

    In the high technology industry, small and medium sized technology enterprises (SMSTEs) play a pivotal role in advancing the whole industry. To achieve sustainable development, they need to extend their scope of business activities beyond a national view and exploit international market actively to meet international competitions that increase quickly in the form of allocating resources within the scope of the world. However, the SMSTEs are also facing risks associated with themselves during the process of exploiting international market owing to their own restrictions, so what they should do is to consider risk evaluations in exploiting the international market.

  13. The impact of global environmental change on vector-borne disease risk: a modelling study

    Rachel Lowe, PhD

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Vector-borne diseases, such as dengue virus, Zika virus, and malaria, are highly sensitive to environmental changes, including variations in climate and land-surface characteristics. The emergence and spread of vector-borne diseases is also exacerbated by anthropogenic activities, such as deforestation, mining, urbanisation, and human mobility, which alter the natural habitats of vectors and increase vector–host interactions. Innovative epidemiological modelling tools can help to understand how environmental conditions interact with socioeconomic risk factors to predict the risk of disease transmission. In recent years, climate-health modelling has benefited from computational advances in fitting complex mathematical models; increasing availability of environmental, socioeconomic, and disease surveillance datasets; and improved ability to understand and model the climate system. Climate forecasts at seasonal time scales tend to improve in quality during El Niño-Southern Oscillation events in certain regions of the tropics. Thus, climate forecasts provide an opportunity to anticipate potential outbreaks of vector-borne diseases from several months to a year in advance. The aim of this study was to develop a framework to incorporate seasonal climate forecasts in predictive disease models to understand the future risk of vector-borne diseases, with a focus on dengue fever in Latin America. Methods: A Bayesian spatiotemporal model framework that quantifies the extent to which environmental and socioeconomic indicators can explain variations in disease risk was designed to disentangle the effects of climate from other risk factors using multi-source data and random effects, which account for unknown and unmeasured sources of spatial, seasonal, and inter-annual variation. The model was used to provide probabilistic predictions of monthly dengue incidence and the probability of exceeding outbreak thresholds, which were established in

  14. Reducing Production Basis Risk through Rainfall Intensity Frequency (RIF) Indexes: Global Sensitivity Analysis' Implication on Policy Design

    Muneepeerakul, Chitsomanus; Huffaker, Ray; Munoz-Carpena, Rafael

    2016-04-01

    The weather index insurance promises financial resilience to farmers struck by harsh weather conditions with swift compensation at affordable premium thanks to its minimal adverse selection and moral hazard. Despite these advantages, the very nature of indexing causes the presence of "production basis risk" that the selected weather indexes and their thresholds do not correspond to actual damages. To reduce basis risk without additional data collection cost, we propose the use of rain intensity and frequency as indexes as it could offer better protection at the lower premium by avoiding basis risk-strike trade-off inherent in the total rainfall index. We present empirical evidences and modeling results that even under the similar cumulative rainfall and temperature environment, yield can significantly differ especially for drought sensitive crops. We further show that deriving the trigger level and payoff function from regression between historical yield and total rainfall data may pose significant basis risk owing to their non-unique relationship in the insured range of rainfall. Lastly, we discuss the design of index insurance in terms of contract specifications based on the results from global sensitivity analysis.

  15. “Hello, HELLO! Anyone there? - on the need to assess the tsunami risk to global submarine telecommunications infrastructure

    Dominey-Howes, D.; Goff, J. R.

    2009-12-01

    National economies are increasingly dependent on the global telecommunications system - and in particular, its submarine cable infrastructure. Submarine cable traffic represents about 30% of global GDP so the cost of losing, or even simply slowing, communications traffic is high. Many natural hazards are capable of damaging and destroying this infrastructure but tsunamis are the most significant threat, particularly in waters >1000 m deep. Submarine cables and their shore-based infrastructure (the anchor points), are at risk from direct and indirect tsunami-related effects. During the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami in India and Indonesia, cables were broken (direct effect) as the tsunami eroded supporting sediments, and were further damaged by floating/submerged objects and intense nearshore currents. Shore-based infrastructure was also directly damaged in India, Indonesia, and the Maldives. The 1929 Grand Banks earthquake generated a submarine landslide and tsunami off Newfoundland which broke 12 submarine telegraph cables. In 2006, an earthquake in Taiwan generated submarine landslides and a tsunami. These landslides caused one of the largest disruptions of modern telecommunications history when nine cables in the Strait of Luzon were broken disabling vital connections between SE Asia and the rest of the world. Although electronic traffic in and out of Australia was slowed, it did not cease because >70% of our traffic is routed via cables that pass through Hawaii. This is extremely significant because Hawaii is an internationally recognised bottleneck or “choke point” in the global telecommunications network. The fact that Hawaii is a choke point is important because it is regularly affected by numerous large magnitude natural hazards. Any damage to the submarine telecommunications infrastructure routed through Hawaii could result in significant impacts on the electronic flow of data and voice traffic, negatively affecting dependent economies such as Australia

  16. Evaluating the impact of climate change on landslide occurrence, hazard, and risk: from global to regional scale.

    Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2017-04-01

    . Where global warming is expected to increase, the frequency and intensity of severe rainfall events, a primary trigger of shallow, rapid-moving landslides that cause many landslide fatalities, an increase in the number of people exposed to landslide risk is to be expected. Furthermore, we defined a group of objective and reproducible methods for the quantitative evaluation of the past and future (expected) variations in landslide occurrence and distribution, and in the impact and risk to the population, as a result of changes in climatic and environmental factors (particularly, land use changes), at regional scale. The methods were tested in a southern Italian region, but they can easily applied in other physiographic and climatic regions, where adequate information is available.

  17. THE EFFECTS OF STOCK OPTION COMPENSATION ONMANAGERIAL RISK TAKING BEHAVIOR AND FIRM FINANCIALPERFORMANCETHE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS FROM ADIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE

    Guler Aras

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to figure out whether managerial risk taking behaviourand firm financial performance is effected by stock option compensation.Inliterature stock optioncompensationismentionedasa meansto solve agencyproblems. It is analysed how stock option compensation aligns theshareholders’andmanagers’ interestsand its effects on firm financialperformance. Additionally, it isinvestigatedwhether this effecthas a link to theglobal financial crisis which hasobviously related to the managers’extreme riskseeking behaviourespecially in financial sector. Inthis study, 189 firms fromS P index are analysedutilizingthe panel dataanalysismethod between years1998-2009. Additionally, regression method is used to measureeach year. Thedata set is grouped as financial and non financial sector tobetterpresent theeffects of global financial crisis.According to the results of this study, stockoption compensation is positively related to investment magnitudes which aretaken as indicators of risk taking behavior.On the other hand, it is negativelyrelated to firm financial performance.According to the results of yearlycomparison, in financial sector the invesment magnitudes are bigger than the nonfinancial sector just two years before the financial crisis and net cash flow fromthe investing activities is significantly negative when compared with non financialsector.Therefore,it is aimed to findoutthe relation between the extreme riskseeking behaviorbefore the global financial crisisand the incentive compensationstructures.

  18. Inter-rater reliability of the German version of the Nurses' Global Assessment of Suicide Risk scale.

    Kozel, Bernd; Grieser, Manuela; Abderhalden, Christoph; Cutcliffe, John R

    2016-10-01

    In comparison to the general population, the suicide rates of psychiatric inpatient populations in Germany and Switzerland are very high. An important preventive contribution to the lowering of the suicide rates in mental health care is to ensure that the risk of suicide of psychiatric inpatients is assessed as accurately as possible. While risk-assessment instruments can serve an important function in determining such risk, very few have been translated to German. Therefore, in the present study, we reported on the German version of Nurses' Global Assessment of Suicide Risk (NGASR) scale. After translating the original instrument into German and pretesting the German version, we tested the inter-rater reliability of the instrument. Twelve video case studies were evaluated by 13 raters with the NGASR scale in a 'laboratory' trial. In each case, the observer's agreement was calculated for the single items, the overall scale, the risk levels, and the sum scores. The statistical data analysis was conducted with kappa and AC1 statistics for dichotomous (items, scale) scales. A high-to-very high observers' agreement (AC1: 0.62-1.00, kappa: 0.00-1.00) was determined for 16 items of the German version of the NGASR scale. We conclude that the German version of the NGASR scale is a reliable instrument for evaluating risk factors for suicide. A reliable application in the clinical practise appears to be enhanced by training in the use of the instrument and the right implementation instructions. © 2016 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

  19. Increase in Fracture Risk Following Unintentional Weight Loss in Postmenopausal Women: The Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women†

    Compston, Juliet E.; Wyman, A; FitzGerald, Gordon; Adachi, Jonathan D.; Chapurlat, Roland D.; Cooper, Cyrus; Díez-Pérez, Adolfo; Gehlbach, Stephen H; Greenspan, Susan L.; Hooven, Frederick H.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; March, Lyn; Coen Netelenbos, J.; Nieves, Jeri W.; Pfeilschifter, Johannes; Rossini, Maurizio; Roux, Christian; Saag, Kenneth G.; Siris, Ethel S.; Silverman, Stuart; Watts, Nelson B.; Anderson, Frederick A.

    2016-01-01

    Increased fracture risk has been associated with weight loss in postmenopausal women but the time course over which this occurs has not been established. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of unintentional weight loss of ≥10 lb (4.5 kg) in postmenopausal women on fracture risk at multiple sites up to 5 years following weight loss. Using data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) we analyzed the relationships between self-reported unintentional weight loss of ≥10 lb at baseline, year 2, or year 3 and incident clinical fracture in the years following weight loss. Complete data were available in 40,179 women (mean age ± SD 68 ± 8.3 years). Five-year cumulative fracture rate was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and adjusted hazard ratios for weight loss as a time-varying covariate were calculated from Cox multiple regression models. Unintentional weight loss at baseline was associated with a significantly increased risk of fracture of the clavicle, wrist, spine, rib, hip, and pelvis for up to 5 years following weight loss. Adjusted hazard ratios showed a significant association between unintentional weight loss and fracture of the hip, spine, and clavicle within 1 year of weight loss, and these associations were still present at 5 years. These findings demonstrate increased fracture risk at several sites after unintentional weight loss in postmenopausal women. This increase is seen as early as 1 year following weight loss, emphasizing the need for prompt fracture risk assessment and appropriate management to reduce fracture risk in this population. PMID:26861139

  20. The global burden of oral diseases and risks to oral health

    Petersen, Poul Erik; Bourgeois, Denis; Ogawa, Hiroshi

    2005-01-01

    of preventive oral health care programmes. The important role of sociobehavioural and environmental factors in oral health and disease has been shown in a large number of socioepidemiological surveys. In addition to poor living conditions, the major risk factors relate to unhealthy lifestyles (i.e. poor diet...

  1. Global Self-Worth in Latino Youth: The Role of Acculturation and Acculturation Risk Factors

    Kapke, Theresa L.; Gerdes, Alyson C.; Lawton, Kathryn E.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Despite Latino youth being at increased risk of developing mental health problems, they are less likely to receive adequate treatment (Gonzales et al. in "Handbook of U.S. Latino psychology: developmental and community-based perspectives." Sage, Thousand Oaks, pp 115-134, 2009; Romero et al. in "Ethn Health"…

  2. Alimentary habits, physical activity, and Framingham global risk score in metabolic syndrome.

    Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo

    2014-04-01

    Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases.

  3. Globalization of United States Community Colleges and the Associated Reputational Risks: A Case Study

    Giasi, Donna L.

    2017-01-01

    Leaders in four-year, public and private institutions have implemented international branch campuses to potentially increase revenue and promote institutional prestige. Although these efforts have received significant attention, they have not always been successful. Studies have identified the reputational risks often associated with international…

  4. Transmission of shocks across global financial markets : The role of contagion and investors' risk appetite

    Gonzalez-Hermosillo Gonzalez, B.M.

    2008-01-01

    This research examines the role of contagion in transmitting shocks across markets. One possible conduit for contagion is shifts in international investors’ risk appetite. The aim of this research is to propose a methodology to address the current gaps in the literature of contagion. The thesis

  5. Globalization, uncertainly and risk Globalización, incertidumbre y riesgo

    Juan Pablo Zorrilla

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available A wide analysis and reference about risk as like as the compilation of all his types and forms. A complete information guide about everything with regard to risk and his implications. The risk can be presented like many intangible forms, whether knows, consider and management, this can be reduced or coverage the negative effects and some cases you can present profits. All the types and forms of risk that you can found in this paper: diversiable, fundamental, own, hazard, basis, repayment, country, political, sovereign, transfer, credit, exchange, conversion, economic, interest rate, manufacture, market, commercial, operational, legal and liquidity.Un amplio análisis, y referencia acerca del riesgo, así como, la compilación de todos sus tipos y formas. Una guía completa para informarse sobre todo lo referente al riesgo y sus implicaciones. El riesgo puede presentarse de muchas formas intangibles, si se conoce, considera y gestiona, se puede cubrir o minorizar el efecto negativo y en algunos casos verse beneficiado. Todos los tipos y formas de riesgo que podrá encontrar en este artículo: diversificable, sistemático, fundamental, propio, moral, repago, base, país, político, soberano, transferencia, crédito, tipo de cambio, transacción, conversión, económico, tipo de interés, manufacturado, mercado, comercial, operacional, legal, y liquidez.

  6. Assessing the Global Risk of Establishment of Cydia pomonella (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) using CLIMEX and MaxEnt Niche Models.

    Kumar, Sunil; Neven, Lisa G; Zhu, Hongyu; Zhang, Runzhi

    2015-08-01

    Accurate assessment of insect pest establishment risk is needed by national plant protection organizations to negotiate international trade of horticultural commodities that can potentially carry the pests and result in inadvertent introductions in the importing countries. We used mechanistic and correlative niche models to quantify and map the global patterns of the potential for establishment of codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.), a major pest of apples, peaches, pears, and other pome and stone fruits, and a quarantine pest in countries where it currently does not occur. The mechanistic model CLIMEX was calibrated using species-specific physiological tolerance thresholds, whereas the correlative model MaxEnt used species occurrences and climatic spatial data. Projected potential distribution from both models conformed well to the current known distribution of codling moth. None of the models predicted suitable environmental conditions in countries located between 20°N and 20°S potentially because of shorter photoperiod, and lack of chilling requirement (Japan where codling moth currently does not occur but where its preferred host species (i.e., apple) is present. Average annual temperature and latitude were the main environmental variables associated with codling moth distribution at global level. The predictive models developed in this study present the global risk of establishment of codling moth, and can be used for monitoring potential introductions of codling moth in different countries and by policy makers and trade negotiators in making science-based decisions. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Benefits and risks of adopting the global code of practice for recreational fisheries

    Arlinghaus, Robert; Beard, T. Douglas; Cooke, Steven J.; Cowx, Ian G.

    2012-01-01

    Recreational fishing constitutes the dominant or sole use of many fish stocks, particularly in freshwater ecosystems in Western industrialized countries. However, despite their social and economic importance, recreational fisheries are generally guided by local or regional norms and standards, with few comprehensive policy and development frameworks existing across jurisdictions. We argue that adoption of a recently developed Global Code of Practice (CoP) for Recreational Fisheries can provide benefits for moving recreational fisheries toward sustainability on a global scale. The CoP is a voluntary document, specifically framed toward recreational fisheries practices and issues, thereby complementing and extending the United Nation's Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries by the Food and Agricultural Organization. The CoP for Recreational Fisheries describes the minimum standards of environmentally friendly, ethically appropriate, and—depending on local situations—socially acceptable recreational fishing and its management. Although many, if not all, of the provisions presented in the CoP are already addressed through national fisheries legislation and state-based fisheries management regulations in North America, adopting a common framework for best practices in recreational fisheries across multiple jurisdictions would further promote their long-term viability in the face of interjurisdictional angler movements and some expanding threats to the activity related to shifting sociopolitical norms.

  8. Potential Bias in Projecting Future Regional Megadrought Risk: Insights From A Global Data-Model Framework

    Overpeck, J. T.; Ault, T.; Cole, J. E.; Fasullo, J.; Loope, G. R.; Parsons, L. A.; Stevenson, S.

    2015-12-01

    Megadrought is one of the most significant and costly climate extremes, and one that stakeholders (e.g., water and other resource managers) the world over wish to understand better; in particular, they need estimates of the risk of severe droughts as a function of drought frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. In many dry-climate regions of the globe, megadrought is synonymous with multi-decadal drought. However, in other regions, megadrought can be defined as extended drought, mostly not seen in the period of instrumental observations, and that would have large impacts if it were to occur in the future. New and published paleoclimatic observations allow us to understand the spectrum of drought in many regions of the globe; droughts exceeding 50 years have occurred in recent Earth history in southwestern North America, sub-Saharan Africa, the Mediterranean and Australia, whereas shorter megadroughts have occurred in Monsoon Asia, Amazonia and elsewhere. Data-model comparisons for regions with sufficiently long (e.g., 1000-2000 years) records of observed hydroclimatic variability suggest that state-of-the-art models can provide realistic estimates of interannual to decadal drought risk, but underestimate the risk of megadrought. Likely reasons for this shortcoming are the lack of sufficient multi-decadal variability in simulations of the past and future, plus an underappreciated understanding about how temperature variability and land-surface feedbacks interact with hydrological and ecological drought, as well as the roles played by unusually wet hydroclimatic extremes (e.g., ENSO related) in ending droughts of long duration. Paleoclimatic records also provide the opportunity to estimate how much models underestimate megadrought risk as a function of locale, frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration; they also aid in providing stakeholders with bias-corrected estimates of megadrought risk.

  9. A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

    Lim, Stephen S; Vos, Theo; Flaxman, Abraham D; Danaei, Goodarz; Shibuya, Kenji; Adair-Rohani, Heather; Amann, Markus; Anderson, H Ross; Andrews, Kathryn G; Aryee, Martin; Atkinson, Charles; Bacchus, Loraine J; Bahalim, Adil N; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Balmes, John; Barker-Collo, Suzanne; Baxter, Amanda; Bell, Michelle L; Blore, Jed D; Blyth, Fiona; Bonner, Carissa; Borges, Guilherme; Bourne, Rupert; Boussinesq, Michel; Brauer, Michael; Brooks, Peter; Bruce, Nigel G; Brunekreef, Bert; Bryan-Hancock, Claire; Bucello, Chiara; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Bull, Fiona; Burnett, Richard T; Byers, Tim E; Calabria, Bianca; Carapetis, Jonathan; Carnahan, Emily; Chafe, Zoe; Charlson, Fiona; Chen, Honglei; Chen, Jian Shen; Cheng, Andrew Tai-Ann; Child, Jennifer Christine; Cohen, Aaron; Colson, K Ellicott; Cowie, Benjamin C; Darby, Sarah; Darling, Susan; Davis, Adrian; Degenhardt, Louisa; Dentener, Frank; Des Jarlais, Don C; Devries, Karen; Dherani, Mukesh; Ding, Eric L; Dorsey, E Ray; Driscoll, Tim; Edmond, Karen; Ali, Suad Eltahir; Engell, Rebecca E; Erwin, Patricia J; Fahimi, Saman; Falder, Gail; Farzadfar, Farshad; Ferrari, Alize; Finucane, Mariel M; Flaxman, Seth; Fowkes, Francis Gerry R; Freedman, Greg; Freeman, Michael K; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Ghosh, Santu; Giovannucci, Edward; Gmel, Gerhard; Graham, Kathryn; Grainger, Rebecca; Grant, Bridget; Gunnell, David; Gutierrez, Hialy R; Hall, Wayne; Hoek, Hans W; Hogan, Anthony; Hosgood, H Dean; Hoy, Damian; Hu, Howard; Hubbell, Bryan J; Hutchings, Sally J; Ibeanusi, Sydney E; Jacklyn, Gemma L; Jasrasaria, Rashmi; Jonas, Jost B; Kan, Haidong; Kanis, John A; Kassebaum, Nicholas; Kawakami, Norito; Khang, Young-Ho; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Khoo, Jon-Paul; Kok, Cindy; Laden, Francine; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lan, Qing; Lathlean, Tim; Leasher, Janet L; Leigh, James; Li, Yang; Lin, John Kent; Lipshultz, Steven E; London, Stephanie; Lozano, Rafael; Lu, Yuan; Mak, Joelle; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mallinger, Leslie; Marcenes, Wagner; March, Lyn; Marks, Robin; Martin, Randall; McGale, Paul; McGrath, John; Mehta, Sumi; Mensah, George A; Merriman, Tony R; Micha, Renata; Michaud, Catherine; Mishra, Vinod; Mohd Hanafiah, Khayriyyah; Mokdad, Ali A; Morawska, Lidia; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Murphy, Tasha; Naghavi, Mohsen; Neal, Bruce; Nelson, Paul K; Nolla, Joan Miquel; Norman, Rosana; Olives, Casey; Omer, Saad B; Orchard, Jessica; Osborne, Richard; Ostro, Bart; Page, Andrew; Pandey, Kiran D; Parry, Charles D H; Passmore, Erin; Patra, Jayadeep; Pearce, Neil; Pelizzari, Pamela M; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael R; Pope, Dan; Pope, C Arden; Powles, John; Rao, Mayuree; Razavi, Homie; Rehfuess, Eva A; Rehm, Jürgen T; Ritz, Beate; Rivara, Frederick P; Roberts, Thomas; Robinson, Carolyn; Rodriguez-Portales, Jose A; Romieu, Isabelle; Room, Robin; Rosenfeld, Lisa C; Roy, Ananya; Rushton, Lesley; Salomon, Joshua A; Sampson, Uchechukwu; Sanchez-Riera, Lidia; Sanman, Ella; Sapkota, Amir; Seedat, Soraya; Shi, Peilin; Shield, Kevin; Shivakoti, Rupak; Singh, Gitanjali M; Sleet, David A; Smith, Emma; Smith, Kirk R; Stapelberg, Nicolas J C; Steenland, Kyle; Stöckl, Heidi; Stovner, Lars Jacob; Straif, Kurt; Straney, Lahn; Thurston, George D; Tran, Jimmy H; Van Dingenen, Rita; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Veerman, J Lennert; Vijayakumar, Lakshmi; Weintraub, Robert; Weissman, Myrna M; White, Richard A; Whiteford, Harvey; Wiersma, Steven T; Wilkinson, James D; Williams, Hywel C; Williams, Warwick; Wilson, Nicholas; Woolf, Anthony D; Yip, Paul; Zielinski, Jan M; Lopez, Alan D; Murray, Christopher J L; Ezzati, Majid; AlMazroa, Mohammad A; Memish, Ziad A

    2012-12-15

    Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved

  10. Ensacamento de frutos de pereira cv. Housui Bagging of nashi pear cv. Housui

    Ivan Dagoberto Faoro

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available Foi avaliada a qualidade de frutos de pêra japonesa cv. Housui (Pyrus pyrifolia var. culta ensacados com diferentes tipos de sacos de papel e em duas épocas: 34 e 83 dias após a florada. O ensacamento não influenciou na firmeza, no teor de sólidos solúveis totais e no peso médio dos frutos. Sacos vermelhos não induziram aumento do pH da polpa, mas o uso de sacos duplos, sacos marrons, sacos de papel kraft marrons e sacos de pipoca brancos aumentaram significativamente o pH. Ao buscar-se maior precocidade de colheita, os melhores resultados foram obtidos com o uso de sacos pequenos de papel manteiga aos 34 dias após a floração e o uso de sacos grandes duplos ou sacos grandes marrons, 83 dias após a plena floração. O ensacamento 34 dias após a plena floração, com sacos grandes de papel duplo de cor marrom ou sacos de papel kraft marrons, ou ainda o uso de sacos pequenos parafinados transparentes de papel manteiga, aos 34 dias, seguidos pela colocação, aos 83 dias, dos dois tipos de sacos grandes citados anteriormente, resultaram em frutos de melhor qualidade externa (película de coloração homogênea e mais clara, lisa e com lenticelas pouco salientes. O uso de sacos vermelhos de papel manteiga e de sacos de pipoca brancos, com ou sem ensacamento prévio com sacos pequenos de papel manteiga parafinado, não resultaram em melhoria substancial da qualidade externa do fruto.The fruit quality of Nashi pears cv. Housui (Pyrus pyrifolia var. culta have been evaluated after bagging with different paper bags at two bagging dates: 34 and 83 days after full bloom. The bagging did not affect the fruit firmness, the total soluble solids and the average fruit weight. Red bags did not affect the pH of the fruit flesh. However the fruit bagged with double bags of brown color, brown kraft paper and white popcorn paper increased the pH. In order to harvest precociously, the use of small transparent paraffin paper bags 34 days after full bloom

  11. Maternal union instability and childhood mortality risk in the Global South, 2010-14.

    DeRose, Laurie F; Salazar-Arango, Andrés; Corcuera García, Paúl; Gas-Aixendri, Montserrat; Rivera, Reynaldo

    2017-07-01

    Efforts to improve child survival in lower-income countries typically focus on fundamental factors such as economic resources and infrastructure provision, even though research from post-industrial countries confirms that family instability has important health consequences. We tested the association between maternal union instability and children's mortality risk in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia using children's actual experience of mortality (discrete-time probit hazard models) as well as their experience of untreated morbidity (probit regression). Children of divorced/separated mothers experience compromised survival chances, but children of mothers who have never been in a union generally do not. Among children of partnered women, those whose mothers have experienced prior union transitions have a higher mortality risk. Targeting children of mothers who have experienced union instability-regardless of current union status-may augment ongoing efforts to reduce childhood mortality, especially in Africa and Latin America where union transitions are common.

  12. Rationale and design of INTERSTROKE: a global case-control study of risk factors for stroke

    O'Donnell, M; Serpault, Damien Xavier; Diener, C

    2010-01-01

    with a first stroke within 72 h of hospital presentation in whom CT or MRI is performed. Proxy respondents are used for cases unable to communicate. Etiological and topographical stroke subtype is documented for all cases. Controls are hospital- and community-based, matched for gender, ethnicity and age (+/-5...... years). A questionnaire (cases and controls) is used to acquire information on known and proposed risk factors for stroke. Cardiovascular (e.g. blood pressure) and anthropometric (e.g. waist-to-hip ratio) measurements are obtained at the time of interview. Nonfasting blood samples and random urine......-income countries is inadequate, where a very large burden of stroke occurs. Accordingly, a similar epidemiological study is required for stroke, to inform effective population-based strategies to reduce the risk of stroke. Methods: INTERSTROKE is an international, multicenter case-control study. Cases are patients...

  13. Analytical solution of a stochastic model of risk spreading with global coupling

    Morita, Satoru; Yoshimura, Jin

    2013-11-01

    We study a stochastic matrix model to understand the mechanics of risk spreading (or bet hedging) by dispersion. Up to now, this model has been mostly dealt with numerically, except for the well-mixed case. Here, we present an analytical result that shows that optimal dispersion leads to Zipf's law. Moreover, we found that the arithmetic ensemble average of the total growth rate converges to the geometric one, because the sample size is finite.

  14. IRSN 2014 opinion survey - The perception of risks and security by the French population. Global results

    El Jammal, Marie-Helene; Mur, Emmanuelle; Rollinger, Francois; Schuler, Matthieu; Tchernia, Jean-Francois

    2014-06-01

    A first and synthetic part of this report comments the most remarkable results of the opinion survey. It first addresses results related to a context of economic crisis (importance of the economic crisis and unemployment as major concerns for French people, environmental concerns) and then analyzes the different aspects of the nuclear risk, from the accident to nuclear safety: strong fears of a nuclear accident, Fukushima and Chernobyl are immediately present in people's mind, concerns about nuclear are also related to the environment and health, the actual benefit of nuclear is an economic one, nuclear safety is a major challenge on which French people doubt, French people wish a citizen look on nuclear safety, the opinion of French people on nuclear worsened in 2013. Then, this report, illustrated by several graphs, presents and discusses the results of an annual opinion survey on the present concerns of French people (in the present society, for the environment, and as far as science is concerned), the opinion of French people on expertise (about who must control a risky installation, about the role and image of scientific experts, about the diffusion and sharing of scientific expertise, and about the perception of pluralistic structures), on the attitude of French people in front of 33 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed to, confidence of French people in authorities to protect them, the truth of information on hazards, the hierarchy of 33 situations according to 3 aspects and their relationship with installation acceptability). The fourth part addresses more particularly the nuclear sector: expectations in terms of nuclear risk management, fear of a serious accident, benefits and drawbacks of nuclear energy, skill and credibility of interveners. Graphs notably present the evolution of opinions with respect to last year or over the past years

  15. Banding the World Together; The Global Growth of Control Banding and Qualitative Occupational Risk Management

    Zalk, David M; Heussen, Ga Henri

    2011-01-01

    Control Banding (CB) strategies to prevent work-related illness and injury for 2.5 billion workers without access to health and safety professionals has grown exponentially this last decade. CB originates from the pharmaceutical industry to control active pharmaceutical ingredients without a complete toxicological basis and therefore no occupational exposure limits. CB applications have broadened into chemicals in general - including new emerging risks like nanomaterials and recently into erg...

  16. Plant regeneration of Brassica oleracea subsp. italica (Broccoli) CV ...

    STORAGESEVER

    2009-06-03

    Jun 3, 2009 ... Department of Agriculture Technology, Faculty of Agriculture, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 Serdang, Selangor Darul. Ehsan, Malaysia. Accepted 20 March, 2009. Hypocotyls and shoot tips were used as explants in in vitro plant regeneration of broccoli (Brassica oleracea subsp.italica) cv. Green Marvel.

  17. Banding the world together; the global growth of control banding and qualitative occupational risk management.

    Zalk, David M; Heussen, Ga Henri

    2011-12-01

    Control Banding (CB) strategies to prevent work-related illness and injury for 2.5 billion workers without access to health and safety professionals has grown exponentially this last decade. CB originates from the pharmaceutical industry to control active pharmaceutical ingredients without a complete toxicological basis and therefore no occupational exposure limits. CB applications have broadened into chemicals in general - including new emerging risks like nanomaterials and recently into ergonomics and injury prevention. CB is an action-oriented qualitative risk assessment strategy offering solutions and control measures to users through "toolkits". Chemical CB toolkits are user-friendly approaches used to achieve workplace controls in the absence of firm toxicological and quantitative exposure information. The model (technical) validation of these toolkits is well described, however firm operational analyses (implementation aspects) are lacking. Consequentially, it is often not known if toolkit use leads to successful interventions at individual workplaces. This might lead to virtual safe workplaces without knowing if workers are truly protected. Upcoming international strategies from the World Health Organization Collaborating Centers request assistance in developing and evaluating action-oriented procedures for workplace risk assessment and control. It is expected that to fulfill this strategy's goals, CB approaches will continue its important growth in protecting workers.

  18. Banding the World Together; The Global Growth of Control Banding and Qualitative Occupational Risk Management

    David M. Zalk

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Control Banding (CB strategies to prevent work-related illness and injury for 2.5 billion workers without access to health and safety professionals has grown exponentially this last decade. CB originates from the pharmaceutical industry to control active pharmaceutical ingredients without a complete toxicological basis and therefore no occupational exposure limits. CB applications have broadened into chemicals in general - including new emerging risks like nanomaterials and recently into ergonomics and injury prevention. CB is an action-oriented qualitative risk assessment strategy offering solutions and control measures to users through “toolkits”. Chemical CB toolkits are user-friendly approaches used to achieve workplace controls in the absence of firm toxicological and quantitative exposure information. The model (technical validation of these toolkits is well described, however firm operational analyses (implementation aspects are lacking. Consequentially, it is often not known if toolkit use leads to successful interventions at individual workplaces. This might lead to virtual safe workplaces without knowing if workers are truly protected. Upcoming international strategies from the World Health Organization Collaborating Centers request assistance in developing and evaluating action-oriented procedures for workplace risk assessment and control. It is expected that to fulfill this strategy’s goals, CB approaches will continue its important growth in protecting workers.

  19. Environmental degradation, global food production, and risk for large-scale migrations

    Doeoes, B.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to estimate to what extent global food production is affected by the ongoing environmental degradation through processes, such as soil erosion, salinization, chemical contamination, ultraviolet radiation, and biotic stress. Estimates have also been made of available opportunities to improve food production efficiency by, e.g., increased use of fertilizers, irrigation, and biotechnology, as well as improved management. Expected losses and gains of agricultural land in competition with urbanization, industrial development, and forests have been taken into account. Although estimated gains in food production deliberately have been overestimated and losses underestimated, calculations indicate that during the next 30-35 years the annual net gain in food production will be significantly lower than the rate of world population growth. An attempt has also been made to identify possible scenarios for large-scale migrations, caused mainly by rapid population growth in combination with insufficient local food production and poverty. 18 refs, 7 figs, 6 tabs

  20. Cryoinsulation Material Development to Mitigate Obsolescence Risk for Global Warming Potential Foams

    Protz, Alison; Bruyns, Roland; Nettles, Mindy

    2015-01-01

    Cryoinsulation foams currently being qualified for the Space Launch System (SLS) core stage are nonozone- depleting substances (ODP) and are compliant with current environmental regulations. However, these materials contain the blowing agent HFC-245fa, a hydrofluorocarbon (HFC), which is a Global Warming Potential (GWP) substance. In August 2014, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed a policy change to reduce or eliminate certain HFCs, including HFC-245fa, in end-use categories including foam blowing agents beginning in 2017. The policy proposes a limited exception to allow continued use of HFC and HFC-blend foam blowing agents for military or space- and aeronautics-related applications, including rigid polyurethane spray foams, but only until 2022.

  1. Creating a Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Assessment and Risk Management

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2008-01-01

    Earthquakes have claimed approximately 8 million lives over the last 2,000 years (Dunbar, Lockridge and others, 1992) and fatality rates are likely to continue to rise with increased population and urbanizations of global settlements especially in developing countries. More than 75% of earthquake-related human casualties are caused by the collapse of buildings or structures (Coburn and Spence, 2002). It is disheartening to note that large fractions of the world's population still reside in informal, poorly-constructed & non-engineered dwellings which have high susceptibility to collapse during earthquakes. Moreover, with increasing urbanization half of world's population now lives in urban areas (United Nations, 2001), and half of these urban centers are located in earthquake-prone regions (Bilham, 2004). The poor performance of most building stocks during earthquakes remains a primary societal concern. However, despite this dark history and bleaker future trends, there are no comprehensive global building inventories of sufficient quality and coverage to adequately address and characterize future earthquake losses. Such an inventory is vital both for earthquake loss mitigation and for earthquake disaster response purposes. While the latter purpose is the motivation of this work, we hope that the global building inventory database described herein will find widespread use for other mitigation efforts as well. For a real-time earthquake impact alert system, such as U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER), (Wald, Earle and others, 2006), we seek to rapidly evaluate potential casualties associated with earthquake ground shaking for any region of the world. The casualty estimation is based primarily on (1) rapid estimation of the ground shaking hazard, (2) aggregating the population exposure within different building types, and (3) estimating the casualties from the collapse of vulnerable buildings. Thus, the

  2. Previous Fractures at Multiple Sites Increase the Risk for Subsequent Fractures: The Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women

    Gehlbach, Stephen; Saag, Kenneth G.; Adachi, Jonathan D.; Hooven, Fred H.; Flahive, Julie; Boonen, Steven; Chapurlat, Roland D.; Compston, Juliet E.; Cooper, Cyrus; Díez-Perez, Adolfo; Greenspan, Susan L.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; Netelenbos, J. Coen; Pfeilschifter, Johannes; Rossini, Maurizio; Roux, Christian; Sambrook, Philip N.; Silverman, Stuart; Siris, Ethel S.; Watts, Nelson B.; Lindsay, Robert

    2016-01-01

    Previous fractures of the hip, spine, or wrist are well-recognized predictors of future fracture, but the role of other fracture sites is less clear. We sought to assess the relationship between prior fracture at 10 skeletal locations and incident fracture. The Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) is an observational cohort study being conducted in 17 physician practices in 10 countries. Women ≥ 55 years answered questionnaires at baseline and at 1 and/or 2 years (fractures in previous year). Of 60,393 women enrolled, follow-up data were available for 51,762. Of these, 17.6%, 4.0%, and 1.6% had suffered 1, 2, or ≥3 fractures since age 45. During the first 2 years of follow-up, 3149 women suffered 3683 incident fractures. Compared with women with no prior fractures, women with 1, 2, or ≥ 3 prior fractures were 1.8-, 3.0-, and 4.8-fold more likely to have any incident fracture; those with ≥3 prior fractures were 9.1-fold more likely to sustain a new vertebral fracture. Nine of 10 prior fracture locations were associated with an incident fracture. The strongest predictors of incident spine and hip fractures were prior spine fracture (hazard ratio 7.3) and hip (hazard ratio 3.5). Prior rib fractures were associated with a 2.3-fold risk of subsequent vertebral fracture, previous upper leg fracture predicted a 2.2-fold increased risk of hip fracture; women with a history of ankle fracture were at 1.8-fold risk of future fracture of a weight-bearing bone. Our findings suggest that a broad range of prior fracture sites are associated with an increased risk of incident fractures, with important implications for clinical assessments and risk model development. PMID:22113888

  3. Risk of early-onset neonatal infection with maternal infection or colonization: a global systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Grace J Chan

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Neonatal infections cause a significant proportion of deaths in the first week of life, yet little is known about risk factors and pathways of transmission for early-onset neonatal sepsis globally. We aimed to estimate the risk of neonatal infection (excluding sexually transmitted diseases [STDs] or congenital infections in the first seven days of life among newborns of mothers with bacterial infection or colonization during the intrapartum period.We searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and the World Health Organization Regional Databases for studies of maternal infection, vertical transmission, and neonatal infection published from January 1, 1960 to March 30, 2013. Studies were included that reported effect measures on the risk of neonatal infection among newborns exposed to maternal infection. Random effects meta-analyses were used to pool data and calculate the odds ratio estimates of risk of infection. Eighty-three studies met the inclusion criteria. Seven studies (8.4% were from high neonatal mortality settings. Considerable heterogeneity existed between studies given the various definitions of laboratory-confirmed and clinical signs of infection, as well as for colonization and risk factors. The odds ratio for neonatal lab-confirmed infection among newborns of mothers with lab-confirmed infection was 6.6 (95% CI 3.9-11.2. Newborns of mothers with colonization had a 9.4 (95% CI 3.1-28.5 times higher odds of lab-confirmed infection than newborns of non-colonized mothers. Newborns of mothers with risk factors for infection (defined as prelabour rupture of membranes [PROM], preterm <37 weeks PROM, and prolonged ROM had a 2.3 (95% CI 1.0-5.4 times higher odds of infection than newborns of mothers without risk factors.Neonatal infection in the first week of life is associated with maternal infection and colonization. High-quality studies, particularly from settings with high neonatal mortality, are needed to

  4. From hypertension control to global cardiovascular risk management: an educational intervention in a cluster-randomised controlled trial.

    Mortsiefer, Achim; Meysen, Tobias; Schumacher, Martin; Abholz, Heinz-Harald; Wegscheider, Karl; In der Schmitten, Jürgen

    2015-05-07

    Guidelines on hypertension management recommend adjusting therapeutic efforts in accordance with global cardiovascular risk (CVR) rather than by blood pressure levels alone. However, this paradigm change has not yet arrived in German General Practice. We have evaluated the effect of an educational outreach visit with general practitioners (GPs), encouraging them to consider CVR in treatment decisions for patients with hypertension. Prospective cluster-randomised trial comprising 3443 patients with known hypertension treated by 87 GPs. Practices were randomly assigned to complex (A) or simple (B) intervention. Both groups received a guideline by mail; group A also received complex peer intervention promoting the concept of global CVR. Clinical data were collected at baseline and 6-9 months after intervention. Main outcome was improvement of calculated CVR in the predefined subpopulation of patients with a high CVR (10-year mortality ≥5%), but no manifest cardiovascular disease. Adjusted for baseline the follow-up CVR were 13.1% (95% CI 12.6%-13.6%) (A) and 12.6% (95% CI 12.2%-13.1%) (B) with a group difference (A vs. B) of 0.5% (-0.2%-1.1%), p = 0.179. The group difference was -0.05% in patients of GPs familiar with global CVR and 1.1% in patients of GPs not familiar with with global CVR. However, this effect modification was not significant (p = 0.165). Pooled over groups, the absolute CVR reduction from baseline was 1.0%, p intervention group, and from 35.6 to 46.5% in the simple intervention group, with adjusted follow-up control rates of 46.7% (95% CI 40.4%-53.1%) (A) and 46.9% (95% CI 40.3%-53.5% (B) and an adjusted odds ratio (A vs B) of 0.99 (95% CI 0.68-1.45), p = 0.966. Our complex educational intervention, including a clinical outreach visit, had no significant effect on CVR of patients with known hypertension at high risk compared to a simple postal intervention. ISRCTN44478543 .

  5. Implications of global climate change for the assessment and management of human health risks of chemicals in the natural environment.

    Balbus, John M; Boxall, Alistair B A; Fenske, Richard A; McKone, Thomas E; Zeise, Lauren

    2013-01-01

    Global climate change (GCC) is likely to alter the degree of human exposure to pollutants and the response of human populations to these exposures, meaning that risks of pollutants could change in the future. The present study, therefore, explores how GCC might affect the different steps in the pathway from a chemical source in the environment through to impacts on human health and evaluates the implications for existing risk-assessment and management practices. In certain parts of the world, GCC is predicted to increase the level of exposure of many environmental pollutants due to direct and indirect effects on the use patterns and transport and fate of chemicals. Changes in human behavior will also affect how humans come into contact with contaminated air, water, and food. Dietary changes, psychosocial stress, and coexposure to stressors such as high temperatures are likely to increase the vulnerability of humans to chemicals. These changes are likely to have significant implications for current practices for chemical assessment. Assumptions used in current exposure-assessment models may no longer apply, and existing monitoring methods may not be robust enough to detect adverse episodic changes in exposures. Organizations responsible for the assessment and management of health risks of chemicals therefore need to be more proactive and consider the implications of GCC for their procedures and processes. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  6. Risk, society and environment: the case of cooperative ecological production and the global management over biodiversity and traditional knowledge

    Guilherme Francisco Waterloo Radomsky

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This article approaches biodiversity and traditional knowledge, having the notion of risk as its background. The data presented come from an ethnographic study carried out among a network of ecological farmers, Ecovida, in Santa Catarina, southern Brazil. Ecovida is an agro-ecological network of farm producers, consumers and intermediaries. The paper aims to show that in the global context of the advent of the intellectual property regime, especially the provisions on cultivars (plant variety and seed breeding, biodiversity and farming traditional knowledge, as well as their modes of plant breeding, suffer a double "erosion": the decrease on the availability of crop varieties; and it creates a uniformity and depleting of local knowledge. The potential standardization of seeds and knowledge entices new risks to both rural production and social sustainability. Our argument is that all these social actors -- that compose the so called ecological network -- in their activities, seeking to carry on the multiplication and variability of seeds and promote the diversity of knowledge, are also creating collective strategies of social resistance vis a vis nature and knowledge modes of control.  As a political outcome of the collective efforts, the network of participatory certification works revealing the risk homogenization and corporate control over crop production.

  7. Global patterns of extinction risk in marine and non-marine systems.

    Webb, Thomas J; Mindel, Beth L

    2015-02-16

    Despite increasing concern over the effects of human activities on marine ecosystems, extinction in the sea remains scarce: 19-24 out of a total of >850 recorded extinctions implies a 9-fold lower marine extinction rate compared to non-marine systems. The extent of threats faced by marine systems, and their resilience to them, receive considerable attention, but the detectability of marine extinctions is less well understood. Before its extinction or threat status is recorded, a species must be both taxonomically described and then formally assessed; lower rates of either process for marine species could thus impact patterns of extinction risk, especially as species missing from taxonomic inventories may often be more vulnerable than described species. We combine data on taxonomic description with conservation assessments from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) to test these possibilities across almost all marine and non-marine eukaryotes. We find that the 9-fold lower rate of recorded extinctions and 4-fold lower rate of ongoing extinction risk across marine species can be explained in part by differences in the proportion of species assessed by the IUCN (3% cf. 4% of non-marine species). Furthermore, once taxonomic knowledge and conservation assessments pass a threshold level, differences in extinction risk between marine and non-marine groups largely disappear. Indeed, across the best-studied taxonomic groups, there is no difference between marine and non-marine systems, with on average between 20% and 25% of species being threatened with extinction, regardless of realm. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Global Risk Evolution and Diversification: a Copula-DCC-GARCH Model Approach

    Marcelo Brutti Righi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we estimate a dynamic portfolio composed by the U.S., German, British, Brazilian, Hong Kong and Australian markets, the period considered started on September 2001 and finished in September 2011. We ran the Copula-DCC-GARCH model on the daily returns conditional covariance matrix. The results allow us to conclude that there were changes in portfolio composition, occasioned by modifications in volatility and dependence between markets. The dynamic approach significantly reduced the portfolio risk if compared to the traditional static approach, especially in turbulent periods. Furthermore, we verified that the estimated copula model outperformed the conventional DCC model for the sample studied.

  9. Startupland how three guys risked everything to turn an idea into a global business

    Svane, Mikkel

    2014-01-01

    The real story of what it takes to risk it all and go for broke. Conventional wisdom says most startups need to be in Silicon Valley, started by young engineers around a sexy new idea, and backed by VC funding. But as Mikkel Svane reveals in Startupland, the story of founding Zendesk was anything but conventional. Founded in a Copenhagen loft by three thirty-something friends looking to break free from corporate doldrums, Zendesk Inc. is now one of the hottest enterprise software companies, still rapidly growing with customers in 150 countries. But its success was anything but predestined. Wit

  10. The communication of the risk of coastal erosion in Portugal: a global problem, a local trouble

    Eduardo BASTO

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In the past two decades a set of instruments has been devised by the Portuguese authorities to handle the issue of coastal erosion. We argue that this legal apparatus not only lacks the internal integration necessary for its effectiveness, but it also fails to recognise the ways in which the problem materialises in the everyday life of coastal areas. Through a case study in the village of Furadouro in Western Portugal, we demonstrate how this top-down implementation of policies does not promote a true communication of risks, in the sense that the problem of coastal erosion is not “put in common” across levels of governance.

  11. Risk and vulnerability to global and climate change in South Africa

    Mambo, Julia

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [C.B. Field, V. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir et al. (eds)]. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.... Qin, Z. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. Averyt et al. (eds)]. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2012. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance...

  12. Measurement and Internalization of Systemic Risk in a Global Banking Network

    Feng, Xiaobing; Hu, Haibo

    2013-12-01

    The negative externalities from an individual bank failure to the whole system can be huge. One of the key purposes of bank regulation is to internalize the social costs of potential bank failures via capital charges. This study proposes a method to evaluate and allocate the systemic risk to different countries/regions using a Susceptible-Infected-Removable (SIR) type of epidemic spreading model and the Shapley value (SV) in game theory. The paper also explores features of a constructed bank network using real globe-wide banking data.

  13. Global electricity transformation: The critical need for integrated market design and risk management research

    Hung-po Chao

    2006-01-01

    The past three decades transformed the electricity industry. The essential goals of liberalization have been to lower costs, improve reliability, and stimulate investment and innovations through establishment of competitive electricity markets, while also relying on market mechanisms to provide creative solutions to environmental and security problems. In many instances, these goals have been achieved, but the occurrence of some spectacular market failures have brought into question the whole restructuring effort. This paper reviews recent experiences with market reform and concludes that a significant cause of failure has been the rush to unbundle vertically integrated utilities without sufficient consideration of alternative ways to manage the risk of electricity market restructuring. In particular, there is a critical need for integrated market design and risk management research to improve the process of market transformation by taking a more evolutionary approach to discover a 'Third Way' above vertical integration and full unbundling. Such research can offer a crucial feedback link to the restructuring process by identifying important lessons to be learned from past experience and developing new analytical tools to help introduce more successful market designs for the future. (author)

  14. Transcription instability in high-risk neuroblastoma is associated with a global perturbation of chromatin domains.

    Zanon, Carlo; Tonini, Gian Paolo

    2017-11-01

    Chromosome instability has a pivotal role among the hallmarks of cancer, but its transcriptional counterpart is rarely considered a relevant factor in cell destabilization. To examine transcription instability (TIN), we first devised a metric we named TIN index and used it to evaluate TIN on a dataset containing more than 500 neuroblastoma samples. We found that metastatic tumors from high-risk (HR) patients are characterized by significantly different TIN index values compared to low/intermediate-risk patients. Our results indicate that the TIN index is a good predictor of neuroblastoma patient's outcome, and a related TIN index gene signature (TIN-signature) is also able to predict the neuroblastoma patient's outcome with high confidence. Interestingly, we find that TIN-signature genes have a strong positional association with superenhancers in neuroblastoma tumors. Finally, we show that TIN is linked to chromatin structural domains and interferes with their integrity in HR neuroblastoma patients. This novel approach to gene expression analysis broadens the perspective of genome instability investigations to include functional aspects. © 2017 The Authors. Published by FEBS Press and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. A globally applicable location-specific screening model for assessing the relative risk of pesticide leaching

    Whelan, M.J.; Davenport, E.J.; Smith, B.G.

    2007-01-01

    A screening model of pesticide leaching loss is described which forms part of a multi-criteria risk-based indicator system called PRoMPT (Pesticide Risk Management and Profiling Tool). The leaching model evaluates pesticide fate in soil for any application rate and time of application (including multiple applications), for any land-based location in the world. It considers a generic evaluative environment with fixed dimensions and soil properties. The soil profile is conceptualised as a number of discrete layers. Equilibrium partitioning between adsorbed and dissolved chemical (based on the organic carbon-water partition coefficient [K OC ]) is assumed in each time step, in each layer. Non-leaching losses are described using first order kinetics. Drainage is assumed to be uniform throughout the soil profile but varies temporally. The drainage rate, which can be augmented by evapotranspiration-adjusted irrigation, is derived from long-term mean monthly water balance model calculations performed for 30 arc-minute grid cells across the entire ice-free land surface of the earth. Although, such predictions are approximate, they do capture the seasonality and relative magnitude of drainage and allow the model to be applied anywhere, without the need for extensive data compilation. PRoMPT predictions are shown to be consistent with those made by more sophisticated models (PRZM, PELMO and PEARL) for the FOCUS groundwater scenarios

  16. A globally applicable location-specific screening model for assessing the relative risk of pesticide leaching

    Whelan, M.J. [Unilever Safety and Environmental Assurance Centre, Colworth House, Sharnbrook, Bedfordshire, MK44 1LQ (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: mick.whelan@unilever.com; Davenport, E.J. [Unilever Safety and Environmental Assurance Centre, Colworth House, Sharnbrook, Bedfordshire, MK44 1LQ (United Kingdom); Smith, B.G. [Unilever Sustainable Agriculture Team, Colworth House, Sharnbrook, Bedfordshire, MK44 1LQ (United Kingdom)

    2007-05-15

    A screening model of pesticide leaching loss is described which forms part of a multi-criteria risk-based indicator system called PRoMPT (Pesticide Risk Management and Profiling Tool). The leaching model evaluates pesticide fate in soil for any application rate and time of application (including multiple applications), for any land-based location in the world. It considers a generic evaluative environment with fixed dimensions and soil properties. The soil profile is conceptualised as a number of discrete layers. Equilibrium partitioning between adsorbed and dissolved chemical (based on the organic carbon-water partition coefficient [K {sub OC}]) is assumed in each time step, in each layer. Non-leaching losses are described using first order kinetics. Drainage is assumed to be uniform throughout the soil profile but varies temporally. The drainage rate, which can be augmented by evapotranspiration-adjusted irrigation, is derived from long-term mean monthly water balance model calculations performed for 30 arc-minute grid cells across the entire ice-free land surface of the earth. Although, such predictions are approximate, they do capture the seasonality and relative magnitude of drainage and allow the model to be applied anywhere, without the need for extensive data compilation. PRoMPT predictions are shown to be consistent with those made by more sophisticated models (PRZM, PELMO and PEARL) for the FOCUS groundwater scenarios.

  17. Uncertainty analysis in estimating Japanese ingestion of global fallout Cs-137 using health risk evaluation model

    Shimada, Yoko; Morisawa, Shinsuke

    1998-01-01

    Most of model estimation of the environmental contamination includes some uncertainty associated with the parameter uncertainty in the model. In this study, the uncertainty was analyzed in a model for evaluating the ingestion of radionuclide caused by the long-term global low-level radioactive contamination by using various uncertainty analysis methods: the percentile estimate, the robustness analysis and the fuzzy estimate. The model is mainly composed of five sub-models, which include their own uncertainty; we also analyzed the uncertainty. The major findings obtained in this study include that the possibility of the discrepancy between predicted value by the model simulation and the observed data is less than 10%; the uncertainty of the predicted value is higher before 1950 and after 1980; the uncertainty of the predicted value can be reduced by decreasing the uncertainty of some environmental parameters in the model; the reliability of the model can definitively depend on the following environmental factors: direct foliar absorption coefficient, transfer factor of radionuclide from stratosphere down to troposphere, residual rate by food processing and cooking, transfer factor of radionuclide in ocean and sedimentation in ocean. (author)

  18. Experience-Based and Description-Based Perceptions of Long-Term Risk. Why Global Warming does not Scare us (Yet)

    Weber, E.U.

    2006-01-01

    It should come as no surprise that the governments and citizenries of many countries show little concern about climate change and its consequences. Behavioral decision research over the last 30 years provides a series of lessons about the importance of affect in perceptions of risk and in decisions to take actions that reduce or manage perceived risks. Evidence from a range of domains suggests that worry drives risk management decisions. When people fail to be alarmed about a risk or hazard, they do not take precautions. Recent personal experience strongly influences the evaluation of a risky option. Low-probability events generate less concern than their probability warrants on average, but more concern than they deserve in those rare instances when they do occur. Personal experience with noticeable and serious consequences of global warming is still rare in many regions of the world. When people base their decisions on statistical descriptions about a hazard provided by others, characteristics of the hazard identified as psychological risk dimensions predict differences in alarm or worry across different classes of risk. The time-delayed, abstract, and often statistical nature of the risks of global warming does not evoke strong visceral reactions. These results suggest that we should find ways to evoke visceral reactions towards the risk of global warming, perhaps by simulations of its concrete future consequences for people's home or other regions they visit or value. Increased concern about global warming needs to solicited carefully, however, to prevent a decrease in concern about other relevant risks. The generation of worry or concern about global warming may be a necessary but not sufficient condition for desirable or appropriate protective or mitigating behavior on part of the general public

  19. Assessment of global and local region-based bilateral mammographic feature asymmetry to predict short-term breast cancer risk

    Li, Yane; Fan, Ming; Cheng, Hu; Zhang, Peng; Zheng, Bin; Li, Lihua

    2018-01-01

    This study aims to develop and test a new imaging marker-based short-term breast cancer risk prediction model. An age-matched dataset of 566 screening mammography cases was used. All ‘prior’ images acquired in the two screening series were negative, while in the ‘current’ screening images, 283 cases were positive for cancer and 283 cases remained negative. For each case, two bilateral cranio-caudal view mammograms acquired from the ‘prior’ negative screenings were selected and processed by a computer-aided image processing scheme, which segmented the entire breast area into nine strip-based local regions, extracted the element regions using difference of Gaussian filters, and computed both global- and local-based bilateral asymmetrical image features. An initial feature pool included 190 features related to the spatial distribution and structural similarity of grayscale values, as well as of the magnitude and phase responses of multidirectional Gabor filters. Next, a short-term breast cancer risk prediction model based on a generalized linear model was built using an embedded stepwise regression analysis method to select features and a leave-one-case-out cross-validation method to predict the likelihood of each woman having image-detectable cancer in the next sequential mammography screening. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values significantly increased from 0.5863  ±  0.0237 to 0.6870  ±  0.0220 when the model trained by the image features extracted from the global regions and by the features extracted from both the global and the matched local regions (p  =  0.0001). The odds ratio values monotonically increased from 1.00-8.11 with a significantly increasing trend in slope (p  =  0.0028) as the model-generated risk score increased. In addition, the AUC values were 0.6555  ±  0.0437, 0.6958  ±  0.0290, and 0.7054  ±  0.0529 for the three age groups of 37

  20. Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

    Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

    2011-01-01

    Background Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. Methodology/Principal Findings We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. Conclusions/Significance Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop

  1. Radiation accidents with global consequences for the population. Problems of risk evaluation

    Vasilev, G.; Doncheva, B.; Stoilova, S.; Miloslavov, V.; Tsenova, T.; Novkirishki, V.

    1987-01-01

    The theoretical problems concerning the delayed impacts as a result of considerable radiation accidents are discussed. The attention is paid to the maximum individual doses which are relatively low but many people are affected. In these cases, the risk evaluation is based on the cancerogenesis, genetic and teratogenetic consequences among the concerned population. The main equation of the linear threshold-free model 'dose effect' is subjected to analysis. Considering the real prognostic importance of this equation the following recommendations are made: further observation on epidemic diseases; investigation of teratogenetic consequences in connection with the radiation doses obtained during the antenatal development; radiation-hygienic standardization of the oral absorbtion of radionuclides for short and long periods of time; effective equivalent dose determination according to the irradiated organ or tissue (mammary glands, lungs, red marrow, gonads, skin); necessity of national system for in time announcement of radiation accidents, as well as suitable control of the internal and the external irradiation

  2. Failing States as Epidemiologic Risk Zones: Implications for Global Health Security.

    Hirschfeld, Katherine

    Failed states commonly experience health and mortality crises that include outbreaks of infectious disease, violent conflict, reductions in life expectancy, and increased infant and maternal mortality. This article draws from recent research in political science, security studies, and international relations to explore how the process of state failure generates health declines and outbreaks of infectious disease. The key innovation of this model is a revised definition of "the state" as a geographically dynamic rather than static political space. This makes it easier to understand how phases of territorial contraction, collapse, and regeneration interrupt public health programs, destabilize the natural environment, reduce human security, and increase risks of epidemic infectious disease and other humanitarian crises. Better understanding of these dynamics will help international health agencies predict and prepare for future health and mortality crises created by failing states.

  3. International negotiation methods on climatic risks, the limits of global incentives: Natural gas example

    Hourcade, J.C.; Journe, V.

    1992-01-01

    The discussion on economic instruments for coordinating an international strategy for climatic risks prevention does not take sufficiently into account the importance of the relevant scientific controversies. These ones determine strongly the negotiation process for the settlement of such a system. We illustrate this point with the simple case of the natural gas whose superiority in terms of emission contents compared to the other fossil fuels, could be contested in case of too important CH 4 releases. We show that the negotiation process cannot come to a positive end if the incentive system relies only on the price signal. This process can converge only if one thinks about the combination of various tools, namely technological norms and ad hoc funds for the renewal of transmission and distribution networks combined with tax systems. 17 refs., 6 tabs

  4. Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) and International Space Station (ISS) Coordination for CubeSat Deployments to Minimize Collision Risk

    Pawloski, James H.; Aviles, Jorge; Myers, Ralph; Parris, Joshua; Corley, Bryan; Hehn, Garrett; Pascucci, Joseph

    2016-01-01

    The Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) is a joint U.S. and Japan mission to observe global precipitation, extending the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), which was launched by H-IIA from Tanegashima in Japan on February 28TH, 2014 directly into its 407km operational orbit. The International Space Station (ISS) is an international human research facility operated jointly by Russia and the USA from NASA's Johnson Space Center (JSC) in Houston Texas. Mission priorities lowered the operating altitude of ISS from 415km to 400km in early 2105, effectively placing both vehicles into the same orbital regime. The ISS has begun a program of deployments of cost effective CubeSats from the ISS that allow testing and validation of new technologies. With a major new asset flying at the same effective altitude as the ISS, CubeSat deployments became a serious threat to GPM and therefore a significant indirect threat to the ISS. This paper describes the specific problem of collision threat to GPM and risk to ISS CubeSat deployment and the process that was implemented to keep both missions safe from collision and maximize their project goals.

  5. Alcohol as a Risk Factor for Cancer: Existing Evidence in a Global Perspective

    Nina Roswall

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the present review is to give an overview of the association between alcohol intake and the risk of developing cancer. Two large-scale expert reports; the World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF/American Institute of Cancer Research (AICR report from 2007, including its continuous update project, and the International Agency for Research of Cancer (IARC monograph from 2012 have extensively reviewed this association in the last decade. We summarize and compare their findings, as well as relate these to the public health impact, with a particular focus on region-specific drinking patterns and disease tendencies. Our findings show that alcohol intake is strongly linked to the risk of developing cancers of the oral cavity, pharynx, larynx, oesophagus, colorectum (in men, and female breast. The two expert reports diverge on the evidence for an association with liver cancer and colorectal cancer in women, which the IARC grades as convincing, but the WCRF/AICR as probable. Despite these discrepancies, there does, however, not seem to be any doubt, that the Population Attributable Fraction of alcohol in relation to cancer is large. As alcohol intake varies largely worldwide, so does, however, also the Population Attributable Fractions, ranging from 10% in Europe to almost 0% in countries where alcohol use is banned. Given the World Health Organization’s prediction, that alcohol intake is increasing, especially in low- and middle-income countries, and steadily high in high-income countries, the need for preventive efforts to curb the number of alcohol-related cancers seems growing, as well as the need for taking a region- and gender-specific approach in both future campaigns as well as future research. The review acknowledges the potential beneficial effects of small doses of alcohol in relation to ischaemic heart disease, but a discussion of this lies without the scope of the present study.

  6. The risk of global financial markets: The case of China in a developing country

    Philemon Nji Kum

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Globalization has forced many countries to rely on one another for products and services which they are unable to source locally. More so, trade is used as the channel to procure those. South Africa and China share very close relations which are boosted by South Africa’s neo-liberal policy, and its membership of the BRICS bloc. Often, this relationship has been subjected to different interpretations leading to the inability to reach a consensus on South Africa’s intention and exact benefits from neo-liberalization and membership of BRICS bloc. On this basis, we affirm that a notable gap exists in scholarly literature which has not provided the full-fledged understanding of the impact of Chinese manufactured goods into South Africa. We draw from the concepts of protectionism and free trade to expatiate the concerns raised by many with respect to the nature and benefits of the relationship. The paper relied extensively on secondary sources of data from which the authors then analyzed, interpreted and drew conclusions to provide a contextual explanation of the phenomenon of Chinese invasion of South African market. This method was useful for two reasons; namely its capacity to generate new insights and secondly, access to comparative studies. While the results show that South African clothing firms are increasingly shutting down because of lower prices from international competitors (especially China, and also due to structural issues of the present South African economy, we are equally aware of the extensive pressure from interest groups for the South African government to protect major local industries such as steel and textile. We argue anyway that the South African government is playing its cards carefully to avoid a backlash, especially considering its position within the BRICS bloc.

  7. Incorporating global warming risks in power sector planning: A case study of the New England region

    Krause, F.; Busch, J.; Koomey, J.

    1992-11-01

    Growing international concern over the threat of global climate change has led to proposals to buy insurance against this threat by reducing emissions of carbon (short for carbon dioxide) and other greenhouse gases below current levels. Concern over these and other, non-climatic environmental effects of electricity generation has led a number of states to adopt or explore new mechanisms for incorporating environmental externalities in utility resource planning. For example, the New York and Massachusetts utility commissions have adopted monetized surcharges (or adders) to induce emission reductions of federally regulated air pollutants (notably, SO 2 , NO x , and particulates) beyond federally mandated levels. These regulations also include preliminary estimates of the cost of reducing carbon emissions, for which no federal regulations exist at this time. Within New England, regulators and utilities have also held several workshops and meetings to discuss alternative methods of incorporating externalities as well as the feasibility of regional approaches. This study examines the potential for reduced carbon emissions in the New England power sector as well as the cost and rate impacts of two policy approaches: environmental externality surcharges and a target- based approach. We analyze the following questions: Does New England have sufficient low-carbon resources to achieve significant reductions (10% to 20% below current levels) in fossil carbon emissions in its utility sector? What reductions could be achieved at a maximum? What is the expected cost of carbon reductions as a function of the reduction goal? How would carbon reduction strategies affect electricity rates? How effective are environmental externality cost surcharges as an instrument in bringing about carbon reductions? To what extent could the minimization of total electricity costs alone result in carbon reductions relative to conventional resource plans?

  8. The relationship between cardiovascular risk factors and knowledge ...

    Adele Burger

    CV risk profile of the group according to the risk score system developed by the ... an individual has about CVD, and the possible risk factors contributing to the .... levels in the lowest tertile of CVD knowledge versus the highest tertile of CVD ..... CV risk factors and health behavior counseling, much can be done to prevent ...

  9. The contribution of the Global Change Observatory Central Asia to seismic hazard and risk assessment in the Central Asian region

    Parolai, S.; Bindi, D.; Haberland, C. A.; Pittore, M.; Pilz, M.; Rosenau, M.; Schurr, B.; Wieland, M.; Yuan, X.

    2012-12-01

    Central Asia has one of the world's highest levels of earthquake hazard, owing to its exceptionally high deformation rates. Moreover, vulnerability to natural disasters in general is increasing, due to rising populations and a growing dependence on complex lifelines and technology. Therefore, there is an urgent need to undertake seismic hazard and risk assessment in this region, while at the same time improving upon existing methodologies, including the consideration of temporal variability in the seismic hazard, and in structural and social vulnerability. Over the last few years, the German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ), in collaboration with local partners, has initiated a number of scientific activities within the framework of the Global Change Observatory Central Asia (GCO-CA). The work is divided into projects with specific concerns: - The installation and maintenance of the Central-Asian Real-time Earthquake MOnitoring Network (CAREMON) and the setup of a permanent wireless mesh network for structural health monitoring in Bishkek. - The TIPAGE and TIPTIMON projects focus on the geodynamics of the Tien-Shan, Pamir and Hindu Kush region, the deepest and most active intra-continental subduction zone in the world. The work covers time scales from millions of years to short-term snapshots based on geophysical measurements of seismotectonic activity and of the physical properties of the crust and upper mantle, as well as their coupling with other surface processes (e.g., landslides). - Existing risk analysis methods assume time-independent earthquake hazard and risk, although temporal changes are likely to occur due to, for example, co- and post-seismic changes in the regional stress field. We therefore aim to develop systematic time-dependent hazard and risk analysis methods in order to undertake the temporal quantification of earthquake activity (PROGRESS). - To improve seismic hazard assessment for better loss estimation, detailed site effects studies

  10. The effect of the subprime crisis on the credit risk in global scale

    Lee, Sangwook; Kim, Min Jae; Lee, Sun Young; Kim, Soo Yong; Ban, Joon Hwa

    2013-05-01

    Credit default swap (CDS) has become one of the most actively traded credit derivatives, and its importance in finance markets has increased after the subprime crisis. In this study, we analyzed the correlation structure of credit risks embedded in CDS and the influence of the subprime crisis on this topological space. We found that the correlation was stronger in the cluster constructed according to the location of the CDS reference companies than in the one constructed according to their industries. The correlation both within a given cluster and between different clusters became significantly stronger after the subprime crisis. The causality test shows that the lead lag effect between the portfolios (into which reference companies are grouped by the continent where each of them is located) is reversed in direction because the portion of non-investable and investable reference companies in each portfolio has changed since then. The effect of a single impulse has increased and the response time relaxation has become prolonged after the crisis as well.

  11. European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models

    Haylock, M. R.

    2011-10-01

    Uncertainty in the return levels of insured loss from European wind storms was quantified using storms derived from twenty-two 25 km regional climate model runs driven by either the ERA40 reanalyses or one of four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Storms were identified using a model-dependent storm severity index based on daily maximum 10 m wind speed. The wind speed from each model was calibrated to a set of 7 km historical storm wind fields using the 70 storms with the highest severity index in the period 1961-2000, employing a two stage calibration methodology. First, the 25 km daily maximum wind speed was downscaled to the 7 km historical model grid using the 7 km surface roughness length and orography, also adopting an empirical gust parameterisation. Secondly, downscaled wind gusts were statistically scaled to the historical storms to match the geographically-dependent cumulative distribution function of wind gust speed. The calibrated wind fields were run through an operational catastrophe reinsurance risk model to determine the return level of loss to a European population density-derived property portfolio. The risk model produced a 50-yr return level of loss of between 0.025% and 0.056% of the total insured value of the portfolio.

  12. Global long-range transport and lung cancer risk from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons shielded by coatings of organic aerosol

    Shrivastava, Manish; Lou, Silja; Zelenyuk, Alla; Easter, Richard C.; Corley, Richard A.; Thrall, Brian D.; Rasch, Philip J.; Fast, Jerome D.; Massey Simonich, Staci L.; Shen, Huizhong; Tao, Shu

    2017-02-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have toxic impacts on humans and ecosystems. One of the most carcinogenic PAHs, benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), is efficiently bound to and transported with atmospheric particles. Laboratory measurements show that particle-bound BaP degrades in a few hours by heterogeneous reaction with ozone, yet field observations indicate BaP persists much longer in the atmosphere, and some previous chemical transport modeling studies have ignored heterogeneous oxidation of BaP to bring model predictions into better agreement with field observations. We attribute this unexplained discrepancy to the shielding of BaP from oxidation by coatings of viscous organic aerosol (OA). Accounting for this OA viscosity-dependent shielding, which varies with temperature and humidity, in a global climate/chemistry model brings model predictions into much better agreement with BaP measurements, and demonstrates stronger long-range transport, greater deposition fluxes, and substantially elevated lung cancer risk from PAHs. Model results indicate that the OA coating is more effective in shielding BaP in the middle/high latitudes compared with the tropics because of differences in OA properties (semisolid when cool/dry vs. liquid-like when warm/humid). Faster chemical degradation of BaP in the tropics leads to higher concentrations of BaP oxidation products over the tropics compared with higher latitudes. This study has profound implications demonstrating that OA strongly modulates the atmospheric persistence of PAHs and their cancer risks.

  13. Risk factors of future smoking among Thai youth: a secondary analysis of the Thai Global Youth Tobacco Survey.

    Lee, Gyeongsil; Lee, Joann; Lee, Sungkyu

    2015-03-01

    The study aimed to identify the risk factors for future smoking among Thai youth aged 13 to 15 years (seventh to ninth grade). Data from the nationally representative 2005 Thai Global Youth Tobacco Survey (n = 15 774) were analyzed using descriptive statistics and logistic regression. Among nonsmoking Thai youth, boys were much more likely to have intention of future smoking (odds ratio [OR] = 0.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.37-0.84). Younger youth were more likely to be cigarette smokers in the future (OR = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.56-0.88). Youth having the intention of smoking from a friend's cigarette offer were 5.29 times more likely to have intention of future smoking, compared with those who did not (95% CI = 3.75-7.46). Understanding and targeting youth at higher risk for future smoking can provide for a lowering of the youth smoking rate in Thailand and contribute to the country's continued efforts in effective youth tobacco control. © 2013 APJPH.

  14. European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models

    M. R. Haylock

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty in the return levels of insured loss from European wind storms was quantified using storms derived from twenty-two 25 km regional climate model runs driven by either the ERA40 reanalyses or one of four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Storms were identified using a model-dependent storm severity index based on daily maximum 10 m wind speed. The wind speed from each model was calibrated to a set of 7 km historical storm wind fields using the 70 storms with the highest severity index in the period 1961–2000, employing a two stage calibration methodology. First, the 25 km daily maximum wind speed was downscaled to the 7 km historical model grid using the 7 km surface roughness length and orography, also adopting an empirical gust parameterisation. Secondly, downscaled wind gusts were statistically scaled to the historical storms to match the geographically-dependent cumulative distribution function of wind gust speed.

    The calibrated wind fields were run through an operational catastrophe reinsurance risk model to determine the return level of loss to a European population density-derived property portfolio. The risk model produced a 50-yr return level of loss of between 0.025% and 0.056% of the total insured value of the portfolio.

  15. Use of Subjective Global Assessment, Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment and Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 to evaluate the nutritional status of non-critically ill patients on parenteral nutrition.

    Badia-Tahull, M B; Cobo-Sacristán, S; Leiva-Badosa, E; Miquel-Zurita, M E; Méndez-Cabalerio, N; Jódar-Masanés, R; Llop-Talaverón, J

    2014-02-01

    To evaluate the nutritional status of non-critically ill digestive surgery patients at the moment of parenteral nutrition initiation using three different nutritional test tools and to study their correlation. To study the association between the tests and the clinical and laboratory parameters used in the follow-up of PN treatment. Prospective study over 4 months. Anthropometric and clinical variables were recorded. Results of Subjective Global Assessment; Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment; and Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 were compared applying kappa test. Relationship between the clinical and laboratory parameters with Subjective Global Assessment was studied by multinominal regression and with the other two tests by multiple linear regression models. Age and sex were included as adjustment variables. Malnutrition in 45 studied patients varied from 51% to 57%. Subjective Global Assessment correlated well with Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment and Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (κ = 0531 p = 0.000). The test with the greatest correlation with the clinical and analytical variables was the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002. Worse nutritional state in this test was associated with worse results in albumin (B = -0.087; CI = -0.169/-0.005], prealbumin (B = -0.005; CI = [-0.011/-0.001]), C-reactive protein (B = 0.006;CI = [0.001/ 0.011]) and leukocytes (B = 0.134; CI = [0.031/0.237]) at the en of parenteral nutrition treatment. Half of the digestive surgery patients were at malnutritional risk at the moment of initiating parenteral nutrition. Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 was the test with best association with the parameters used in the clinical follow-up of parenteral nutrition treated patients. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

  16. Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities

    Rundle, John B.; Luginbuhl, Molly; Giguere, Alexis; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2018-02-01

    Natural Time ("NT") refers to the concept of using small earthquake counts, for example of M > 3 events, to mark the intervals between large earthquakes, for example M > 6 events. The term was first used by Varotsos et al. (2005) and later by Holliday et al. (2006) in their studies of earthquakes. In this paper, we discuss ideas and applications arising from the use of NT to understand earthquake dynamics, in particular by use of the idea of nowcasting. Nowcasting differs from forecasting, in that the goal of nowcasting is to estimate the current state of the system, rather than the probability of a future event. Rather than focus on an individual earthquake faults, we focus on a defined local geographic region surrounding a particular location. This local region is considered to be embedded in a larger regional setting from which we accumulate the relevant statistics. We apply the nowcasting idea to the practical development of methods to estimate the current state of risk for dozens of the world's seismically exposed megacities, defined as cities having populations of over 1 million persons. We compute a ranking of these cities based on their current nowcast value, and discuss the advantages and limitations of this approach. We note explicitly that the nowcast method is not a model, in that there are no free parameters to be fit to data. Rather, the method is simply a presentation of statistical data, which the user can interpret. Among other results, we find, for example, that the current nowcast ranking of the Los Angeles region is comparable to its ranking just prior to the January 17, 1994 Northridge earthquake.

  17. Immediate Effect of Needling at CV-12 (Zhongwan) Acupuncture Point on Blood Glucose Level in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Pilot Randomized Placebo-Controlled Trial.

    Kumar, Ranjan; Mooventhan, A; Manjunath, Nandi Krishnamurthy

    2017-08-01

    Diabetes mellitus is a major global health problem. Needling at CV-12 has reduced blood glucose level in diabetic rats. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of needling at CV-12 (Zhongwan) on blood glucose level in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Forty T2DM patients were recruited and randomized into either the acupuncture group or placebo control group. The participants in the acupuncture group were needled at CV-12 (4 cun above the center of the umbilicus), and those in the placebo control group were needled at a placebo point on the right side of the abdomen (1 cun beside the CV-12). For both groups, the needle was retained for 30 minutes. Assessments were performed prior to and after the intervention. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS version 16. There was a significant reduction in random blood glucose level in the acupuncture group compared to baseline. No such significant change was observed in the placebo control group. The result of this study suggests that 30 minutes of needling at CV-12 might be useful in reducing blood glucose level in patients with T2DM. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  18. Analisis Kinerja CV. Fabamus Famili Utama Semarang Dengan Balanced Scorecard

    Permata, Nilla Mega; Nugraha, Hari Susanta; Nurseto, Sendhang

    2014-01-01

    A method of measuring the performance of the company to assist in knowing the health condition of the company itself. The study was conducted on the CV. Fabamus First Family with Balanced Scorecard approach to measuring through four perspectives: financial perspective, customer perspective, internal business process perspective and learning and growth perspectives. In the financial aspects of performance measurement with a weight of 70%, 10% customer perspective, internal business process per...

  19. STRATEGI PEMASARAN PRODUK DIGITAL PRINTING PADA CV. FNB DIGITAL JAMBI

    Yuniarti, Yenni; Mauliana, Sarah

    2012-01-01

    CV. Digital FNB is one of the companies that involved in Digital Printing business. Based on survey in the middle of 2011-2012, there are 31 digital printing businesses in the city of Jambi. In order to examine the marketing stratey implemented, descriptive study has been conducted, uses interview, observation, and documentation as instruments. The strategy that observed in this study consist of marketing strategy including market segmentation, targeting, product strategy, pricing strategy, ...

  20. Applications in Foreign Currency Prima CV Ellindo Money Changer

    Wisnu Sutrisno; Ire Puspa Wardhani, Skom, MMSI

    2004-01-01

    This explains the scientific writing about the design of application programs forforeign currency transactions by using Visual Basic 6.0 programming language.In scientific writing database is also used by Visual Data Manager (VisData)integrated in Visual Basic 6.0 program itself. Consists of three tables namelyCurrency,Customer and Transaction.In the end application program for foreign currency transactions will be applied to theCV. Prima Ellindo Money Changer for ease in performing activitie...

  1. Racial and ethnic disparities in the impact of obesity on breast cancer risk and survival: a global perspective.

    Bandera, Elisa V; Maskarinec, Gertraud; Romieu, Isabelle; John, Esther M

    2015-11-01

    Obesity is a global concern, affecting both developed and developing countries. Although there are large variations in obesity and breast cancer rates worldwide and across racial/ethnic groups, most studies evaluating the impact of obesity on breast cancer risk and survival have been conducted in non-Hispanic white women in the United States or Europe. Given the known racial/ethnic differences in tumor hormone receptor subtype distribution, obesity prevalence, and risk factor profiles, we reviewed published data for women of African, Hispanic, and Asian ancestry in the United States and their countries of origin. Although the data are limited, current evidence suggests a stronger adverse effect of obesity on breast cancer risk and survival in women of Asian ancestry. For African Americans and Hispanics, the strength of the associations appears to be more comparable to that of non-Hispanic whites, particularly when accounting for subtype and menopausal status. Central obesity seems to have a stronger impact in African-American women than general adiposity as measured by body mass index. International data from countries undergoing economic transition offer a unique opportunity to evaluate the impact of rapid weight gain on breast cancer. Such studies should take into account genetic ancestry, which may help elucidate differences in associations between ethnically admixed populations. Overall, additional large studies that use a variety of adiposity measures are needed, because the current evidence is based on few studies, most with limited statistical power. Future investigations of obesity biomarkers will be useful to understand possible racial/ethnic biological differences underlying the complex association between obesity and breast cancer development and progression. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

  2. Geology for Global Development: Training young geoscientists to communicate and do effective disaster risk reduction in the developing world

    Gill, J. C.

    2012-04-01

    Geoscientists have a crucial role to play in improving disaster risk reduction and supporting communities to build resilience and reduce vulnerability. Across the world millions live in severe poverty, without access to many of the basic needs that are often taken for granted - a clean water supply, a reliable food source, safe shelter and suitable infrastructure. This lack of basic needs results in communities being particularly vulnerable to devastating natural hazards, such as floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides. Here we discuss two major gaps which can limit the engagement of geoscience students and recent graduates in the serious debates surrounding resilience and effective disaster risk reduction: (i) Geoscience undergraduate and postgraduate courses rarely give students the opportunity to engage with issues such as vulnerability, sustainability, knowledge exchange and cross-cultural communication. (ii) There are very few opportunities for geoscience students to gain experience in this sector through UK or overseas placements. Geology for Global Development (GfGD), established in 2011, is starting to work with UK students and recent graduates to fill these gaps. GfGD aims to inspire and engage young geoscientists, supporting them to apply their interdisciplinary knowledge and skills to generate solutions and resources which support NGOs, empower communities and help build resilience to natural hazards. This is being and will be done through: (i) active university groups hosting seminars and discussion groups; (ii) blog articles; (iii) opportunities to contribute to technical papers; (iv) workshops and conferences; and (v) UK and overseas placements. GfGD seeks to play a key role in the training and development of geoscience graduates with the necessary 'soft-skills' and opportunities to make an important contribution to improving disaster risk reduction, fighting poverty and improving people's lives.

  3. The draft genome of Corchorus olitorius cv. JRO-524 (Navin

    Debabrata Sarkar

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Here, we present the draft genome (377.3 Mbp of Corchorus olitorious cv. JRO-524 (Navin, which is a leading dark jute variety developed from a cross between African (cv. Sudan Green and indigenous (cv. JRO-632 types. We predicted from the draft genome a total of 57,087 protein-coding genes with annotated functions. We identified a large number of 1765 disease resistance-like and defense response genes in the jute genome. The annotated genes showed the highest sequence similarities with that of Theobroma cacao followed by Gossypium raimondii. Seven chromosome-scale genetically anchored pseudomolecules were constructed with a total size of 8.53 Mbp and used for synteny analyses with the cocoa and cotton genomes. Like other plant species, gypsy and copia retrotransposons were the most abundant classes of repeat elements in jute. The raw data of our study are available in SRA database of NCBI with accession number SRX1506532. The genome sequence has been deposited at DDBJ/EMBL/GenBank under the accession LLWS00000000, and the version described in this paper will be the first version (LLWS01000000.

  4. Central heating pipes cause unwanted heating; CV-leidingen zorgen voor ongewenste opwarming

    Wessels, R. [biq-stadsontwerp, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Nuijten, O. [ISSO, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    2011-12-15

    Research has shown that the risk of hot spots in the drinking water pipes is very high. Hot spots are, for example, caused by central heating pipes that are too close to the water pipes. The water pipes may be 25 C for a long period, thus creating the risk of legionella growth. The various disciplines need to be careful in the design stage and building stage to prevent such situations from occurring. [Dutch] Onderzoek heeft uitgewezen dat het risico op 'hotspots' in de drinkwaterleidingen erg groot is. Hotspots worden bijvoorbeeld veroorzaakt door cv-leidingen die te dicht in de buurt van waterleidingen lopen. Die waterleidingen kunnen dan langdurig warmer zijn dan 25C en daardoor gevaar opleveren voor legionellagroei. Het vereist zorg van meerdere disciplines in de ontwerpfase en de bouwfase om deze situaties te vermijden.

  5. GLOBAL ELECTROMAGNETIC RADIATION POLLUTION: RISK ASSESSMENT FROM FIELD MEASUREMENTS AND ANIMAL EXPERIMENTS

    Fragkopoulou, A. F.; Margaritis, L. H.

    2009-12-01

    The extended use of wireless technology throughout the globe in almost all developed and non-developed countries has forced a large number of scientists to get involved in the investigation of the effects. The major issue is that unlike other forms of radiation exposure, this “non-ionizing electromagnetic radiation” was not present throughout the evolution of life in earth and therefore there are no adaptive mechanisms evolved. All organisms are vulnerable to the possible effects of radiation depending on the actual exposure level. “Safety limits” on the power density have been proposed but ongoing research has shown that these limits are not really safe for humans, not mentioning the entire population of living creatures on earth. The so called “Electrosmog Pollution” originating from the numerous radio and TV stations, communication satellite emission, but most importantly from mobile phone mast antennas, are of major concern, because it is gradually increasing at exponential rate. Therefore the key question is, do living organisms react upon their exposure to fields of non ionizing electromagnetic radiation? To have this question answered extensive research is being performed in various laboratories. One approach of our research includes field measurements within houses and classrooms, since a considerable proportion of the population in each country is exposed to the radiation coming from the nearby mast stations, in order to make a risk assessment. The measurements showed that in many cases the actual radiation present was potentially harmful. In other words, although the measured values were below the national safety levels, nevertheless they were above the levels of other countries. Therefore it has been suggested that a new cellular network should be constructed in order to minimize radiation levels in living areas and schools. Our experimental work is focusing on the elucidation of the effects of non-ionizing EMFs on mice exposed to mobile

  6. Aspirin and the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Diseases: An Approach Based on Individualized, Integrated Estimation of Risk.

    Volpe, Massimo; Battistoni, Allegra; Gallo, Giovanna; Coluccia, Roberta; De Caterina, Raffaele

    2017-09-01

    While the use of aspirin in the secondary prevention of cardiovascular (CVD) is well established, aspirin in primary prevention is not systematically recommended because the absolute CV event reduction is similar to the absolute excess in major bleedings. Recently, emerging evidence suggests the possibility that the assumption of aspirin, may also be effective in the prevention of cancer. By adding to the CV prevention benefits the potential beneficial effect of aspirin in reducing the incidence of mortality and cancer could tip the balance between risks and benefits of aspirin therapy in the primary prevention in favour of the latter and broaden the indication for treatment with in populations at average risk. While prospective and randomized study are currently investigating the effect of aspirin in prevention of both cancer and CVD, clinical efforts at the individual level to promote the use of aspirin in global (or total) primary prevention could be already based on a balanced evaluation of the benefit/risk ratio.

  7. Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

    Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

    2018-01-01

    This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%-72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%-42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C-2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to

  8. Analisis Daya Saing untuk Meningkatkan Kualitas Layanan terhadap Pelanggan dengan Pendekatan CRM di CV. BLITZSPOT

    Suryadi Muhammad

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available CV. Blitzspot adalah perusahaan yang bergerak di bidang jasa penyediaan layanan internet (internet service provider, yang berkantor pusat di Komplek Padasuka Indah Ruko Blok A-1, Cimahi, Jawa Barat. Berdasarkan hasil wawancara dan hasil observasi pada data transaksi CV. Blitzspot, konsumen CV. Blitzspot yang melakukan transaksi tiap tahunnya selalu berkurang, hal ini dikarenakan konsumen sering membandingkan layanan-layanan yang ditawarkan oleh para pesaing CV. Blitzspot. Bila permasalahan tersebut belum teratasi, konsumen CV. Blitzspot akan menurun tiap tahunnya dan akan selalu berpindah ke pesaing CV. Blitzspot. Direktur Utama CV. Blitzspot ingin menganalisis daya saing untuk menentukan layanan-layanan yang akan diberikan kepada pelanggan CV. Blitzspot dan penentuan strategi untuk mempertahankan konsumen CV. Blitzspot.  Metode Analisis daya saing yang digunakan adalah Model Analisis Berlian Porter dan Metode Pengelompokkan Pelanggan yang digunakan adalah Metode LRFM. Berdasarkan hasil pengujian dan pembahasan yang telah dibuat, maka dapat ditarik kesimpulan bahwa Direktur Utama dapat menganalisis daya saing CV. Blitzspot dengan menggunakan Berlian Porter untuk meningkatkan kualitas layanan terhadap pelanggan CV. Blitzspot.

  9. CERES BiDirectional Scans (BDS) data in HDF (CER_BDS_Terra-FM1_Edition1-CV)

    Wielicki, Bruce A. (Principal Investigator)

    Each BiDirectional Scans (BDS) data product contains twenty-four hours of Level-1b data for each CERES scanner instrument mounted on each spacecraft. The BDS includes samples taken in normal and short Earth scan elevation profiles in both fixed and rotating azimuth scan modes (including space, internal calibration, and solar calibration views). The BDS contains Level-0 raw (unconverted) science and instrument data as well as the geolocated converted science and instrument data. The BDS contains additional data not found in the Level-0 input file, including converted satellite position and velocity data, celestial data, converted digital status data, and parameters used in the radiance count conversion equations. The following CERES BDS data sets are currently available: CER_BDS_TRMM-PFM_Edition1 CER_BDS_Terra-FM1_Edition1 CER_BDS_Terra-FM2_Edition1 CER_BDS_Terra-FM1_Edition2 CER_BDS_Terra-FM2_Edition2 CER_BDS_Aqua-FM3_Edition1 CER_BDS_Aqua-FM4_Edition1 CER_BDS_Aqua-FM3_Edition2 CER_BDS_Aqua-FM4_Edition2 CER_BDS_Aqua-FM3_Edition1-CV CER_BDS_Aqua-FM4_Edition1-CV CER_BDS_Terra-FM1_Edition1-CV CER_BDS_Terra-FM2_Edition1-CV. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1997-12-27; Stop_Date=2006-11-02] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Temporal_Resolution=1 day; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Daily - < Weekly].

  10. Blood pressure gradients and cardiovascular risk factors in urban and rural populations in Abia State South Eastern Nigeria using the WHO STEPwise approach.

    Okpechi, Ikechi Gareth; Chukwuonye, Innocent Ijezie; Tiffin, Nicki; Madukwe, Okechukwu Ojoemelam; Onyeonoro, Ugochukwu Uchenna; Umeizudike, Theophilus Ifeanyichukwu; Ogah, Okechukwu Samuel

    2013-01-01

    Developing countries of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) face a double burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and communicable diseases. As high blood pressure (BP) is a common global cardiovascular (CV) disorder associated with high morbidity and mortality, the relationship between gradients of BP and other CV risk factors was assessed in Abia State, Nigeria. Using the WHO STEPwise approach to surveillance of chronic disease risk factors, we conducted a population-based cross-sectional survey in Abia state, Nigeria from August 2011 to March 2012. Data collected at various steps included: demographic and behavioral risk factors (Step 1); BP and anthropometric measurements (Step 2), and fasting blood cholesterol and glucose (Step 3). Of the 2983 subjects with complete data for analysis, 52.1% were females and 53.2% were rural dwellers. Overall, the distribution of selected CV disease risk factors was diabetes (3.6%), hypertension (31.4%), cigarette smoking (13.3%), use of smokeless tobacco (4.8%), physical inactivity (64.2%) and being overweight or obese (33.7%). Presence of hypertension, excessive intake of alcohol, smoking (cigarette and smokeless tobacco) and physical inactivity occurred more frequently in males than in females (p<0.05); while low income, lack of any formal education and use of smokeless tobacco were seen more frequently in rural dwellers than in those living in urban areas (p<0.05). The frequency of selected CV risk factors increased as BP was graded from optimal, normal to hypertension; and high BP correlated with age, gender, smokeless tobacco, overweight or obesity, annual income and level of education. Given the high prevalence of hypertension in this part of Nigeria, there is an urgent need to focus on the reduction of preventable CV risk factors we have observed to be associated with hypertension, in order to effectively reduce the burden of NCDs in Africa.

  11. Blood pressure gradients and cardiovascular risk factors in urban and rural populations in Abia State South Eastern Nigeria using the WHO STEPwise approach.

    Ikechi Gareth Okpechi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Developing countries of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA face a double burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs and communicable diseases. As high blood pressure (BP is a common global cardiovascular (CV disorder associated with high morbidity and mortality, the relationship between gradients of BP and other CV risk factors was assessed in Abia State, Nigeria. METHODS: Using the WHO STEPwise approach to surveillance of chronic disease risk factors, we conducted a population-based cross-sectional survey in Abia state, Nigeria from August 2011 to March 2012. Data collected at various steps included: demographic and behavioral risk factors (Step 1; BP and anthropometric measurements (Step 2, and fasting blood cholesterol and glucose (Step 3. RESULTS: Of the 2983 subjects with complete data for analysis, 52.1% were females and 53.2% were rural dwellers. Overall, the distribution of selected CV disease risk factors was diabetes (3.6%, hypertension (31.4%, cigarette smoking (13.3%, use of smokeless tobacco (4.8%, physical inactivity (64.2% and being overweight or obese (33.7%. Presence of hypertension, excessive intake of alcohol, smoking (cigarette and smokeless tobacco and physical inactivity occurred more frequently in males than in females (p<0.05; while low income, lack of any formal education and use of smokeless tobacco were seen more frequently in rural dwellers than in those living in urban areas (p<0.05. The frequency of selected CV risk factors increased as BP was graded from optimal, normal to hypertension; and high BP correlated with age, gender, smokeless tobacco, overweight or obesity, annual income and level of education. CONCLUSION: Given the high prevalence of hypertension in this part of Nigeria, there is an urgent need to focus on the reduction of preventable CV risk factors we have observed to be associated with hypertension, in order to effectively reduce the burden of NCDs in Africa.

  12. Global long-range transport and lung cancer risk from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons shielded by coatings of organic aerosol

    Shrivastava, ManishKumar B.; Lou, Sijia; Zelenyuk-Imre, Alla; Easter, Richard C.; Corley, Richard A.; Thrall, Brian D.; Rasch, Philip J.; Fast, Jerome D.; Massey Simonich, Staci L.; Shen, Huizhong; Tao, Shu

    2017-01-23

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have toxic impacts on ecosystems and human health. Laboratory measurements show that one of the most carcinogenic PAHs, benzo(a)pyrene, which is adsorbed on surfaces of soot particles, reacts very quickly with atmospheric oxidants like ozone within ~2 hours. Yet, field observations indicate that it actually persists for much longer periods in the atmosphere, and this large discrepancy is not well understood. Driven by novel experimental understanding, we develop a new modelling approach, whereby particle-bound BaP is shielded from oxidation by a coating of viscous organic aerosol (OA). We show that application of this new approach in a global climate model leads to higher atmospheric BaP concentrations that agree much better with measurements, compared to the default model, as well as stronger long-range transport and greater deposition fluxes. This new approach also predicts elevated lung-cancer risk from PAHs. Predicted oxidation of BaP is highest over a tropical belt where OA is liquid-like.

  13. Induction of single flower mutant in Hibiscus cv. 'Alipur Beauty'

    Banerji, B.K.; Datta, S.K.

    1986-01-01

    Stem cuttings of Hibicus cv. 'Alipur Beauty' were irradiated with 0, 1.0, 2.0 Krad of gamma rays in 60 Co source and planted just after irradiation. Data were recorded on days to sprout, number of sprouts, sprouting percentage, survival, plant height, leaf number and size, abnormal leaves and plants, floral abnormalities and induction of somatic mutations in flower colour/form. Some of the characters like plant height, leaf number, abnormal leaves and plants and leaf size were recorded after 60 and 120 days. 7 refs. (author)

  14. DETECTION OF MOTORCYCLISTS WITHOUT HELMET AND FINEPAYMENT USING OPEN CV

    Stemy Simon, Divya Kumaran A.K.

    2018-01-01

    The helmet is the main safety equipment of motorcyclists, but many drivers do not use it. The main aim of this project is to construct an automatic detection of the motorcyclist without helmet from video using OpenCV library tools. If they are not wearing the helmet, the license plate of the motorcycle is focused automatically. By using Computer Vision technique we can detect and recognize the license plate number. We make the training set of different characters of different sizes. Based on ...

  15. Comparison of tracking algorithms implemented in OpenCV

    Janku Peter

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Computer vision is very progressive and modern part of computer science. From scientific point of view, theoretical aspects of computer vision algorithms prevail in many papers and publications. The underlying theory is really important, but on the other hand, the final implementation of an algorithm significantly affects its performance and robustness. For this reason, this paper tries to compare real implementation of tracking algorithms (one part of computer vision problem, which can be found in the very popular library OpenCV. Moreover, the possibilities of optimizations are discussed.

  16. OpenCV 3.0 computer vision with Java

    Baggio, Daniel Lélis

    2015-01-01

    If you are a Java developer, student, researcher, or hobbyist wanting to create computer vision applications in Java then this book is for you. If you are an experienced C/C++ developer who is used to working with OpenCV, you will also find this book very useful for migrating your applications to Java. All you need is basic knowledge of Java, with no prior understanding of computer vision required, as this book will give you clear explanations and examples of the basics.

  17. Resistance selection on banana CV. Ambon Kuning Against Fusarium Wilt

    Sutarto, Ismiyarti; Meldia, Yeni; Jumjunidang

    1998-01-01

    This research was conducted in order to study the occurrence of mutation on irradiated plantlets and their resistance of plants of banana cv. Ambon Kuning against Fusarium wilt. Plantlets of banana cv. Ambon Kuning sized 5 cm were exposed to gamma rays at the doses 5 - 35 Gy intervals, then were subcultured for obtained M 1 V 5 plantlets. More over, the planlets were acclimatized and were planted in the field was already infected by Fasarium (f).culbense (FOC). The result indicated that irradiated plantlets of the doses 20 - 35 Gy were not able to survive up to 6 months after exposing to gamma rays. Abnormalities of M 1 V 5 plantlets originated from irradiated plantlets at the doses 10 and 15 Gy were shown on rossette plantlets with rigid and dark green leaves, and the formation of smooth mass morphologically shaped like calculus. The appearance of plant height and number of suckers of suckers of M 1 V 5 plants in the field was quite various. The number of survival plants after 8 moths planting was 8, 7, 15, and 28, respectively originated from untreated plants and irradiated plantlets at the doses 5, 10, and 15 Gy. After one year planting , only 2 plants were able to survive from irradiated plantlet at the dose 15 Gy. The plants could produce 27 plantlets obtained from culturing their shoot tips. Further study of these plantlets was needed in order create the stability of their resistance to FOC. (author)

  18. Perancangan Kemasan Transportasi Buah Jambu Air (Syzygium aqueum cv Camplong

    Iswahyudi

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Jamboo cv Camplong was an exotic fruit from Sampang Indonesia which had high economic values. The quality of fresh Jamboo was greatly influenced by the types of packaging and ways of its transportation that affected its shelf life. The purpose of this research were designing a primary packaging and analyzing the quality of Jamboo cv Camplong after short transportation (from Sampang to Surabaya. Farmers used conventional packaging with capacity of 8.4 kg/box (dimension 478 mm x 146 mm x 354 mm. Based on theoretical packaging design showed that the flute BC cardboard (capacity 4.5 kg/box, dimension 357 mm x 217 mm x 216 mm with partition flute A cardboard. In fact, there was needed modification of the dimension (342 mm x 210 mm x 200 mm because of the fruits diameter (60-65 mm. This result did not change the efficiency usage of transportation space (91-95% and compression strength of box can support (7 boxes/ stack. The result showed that the mechanical damage after transportation were 20.87% for conventional packaging (as control and 7.70% for modification packaging design (packaging with partition.

  19. Effects of tofacitinib on cardiovascular risk factors and cardiovascular outcomes based on phase III and long-term extension data in patients with plaque psoriasis

    Wu, Jashin J; Strober, Bruce E; Hansen, Peter R

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Psoriasis is a systemic inflammatory condition that is associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular (CV) disease. Tofacitinib is being investigated as a treatment for psoriasis. OBJECTIVE: We sought to evaluate the effects of tofacitinib on CV risk factors and major adverse CV even...

  20. James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Integrated Science Instruments Module (ISIM) Cryo-Vacuum (CV) Test Campaign Summary

    Yew, Calinda; Whitehouse, Paul; Lui, Yan; Banks, Kimberly

    2016-01-01

    JWST Integrated Science Instruments Module (ISIM) has completed its system-level testing program at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). In March 2016, ISIM was successfully delivered for integration with the Optical Telescope Element (OTE) after the successful verification of the system through a series of three cryo-vacuum (CV) tests. The first test served as a risk reduction test; the second test provided the initial verification of the fully-integrated flight instruments; and the third test verified the system in its final flight configuration. The complexity of the mission has generated challenging requirements that demand highly reliable system performance and capabilities from the Space Environment Simulator (SES) vacuum chamber. As JWST progressed through its CV testing campaign, deficiencies in the test configuration and support equipment were uncovered from one test to the next. Subsequent upgrades and modifications were implemented to improve the facility support capabilities required to achieve test requirements. This paper: (1) provides an overview of the integrated mechanical and thermal facility systems required to achieve the objectives of JWST ISIM testing, (2) compares the overall facility performance and instrumentation results from the three ISIM CV tests, and (3) summarizes lessons learned from the ISIM testing campaign.

  1. Implementation of coordinated global serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccine cessation: risks of inadvertent trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine use.

    Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Hampton, Lee M; Thompson, Kimberly M

    2016-06-01

    The endgame for polio eradication includes coordinated global cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), starting with the cessation of vaccine containing OPV serotype 2 (OPV2) by switching all trivalent OPV (tOPV) to bivalent OPV (bOPV). The logistics associated with this global switch represent a significant undertaking, with some possibility of inadvertent tOPV use after the switch. We used a previously developed poliovirus transmission and OPV evolution model to explore the relationships between the extent of inadvertent tOPV use, the time after the switch of the inadvertent tOPV use and corresponding population immunity to serotype 2 poliovirus transmission, and the ability of the inadvertently introduced viruses to cause a serotype 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) outbreak in a hypothetical population. We then estimated the minimum time until inadvertent tOPV use in a supplemental immunization activity (SIA) or in routine immunization (RI) can lead to a cVDPV2 outbreak in realistic populations with properties like those of northern India, northern Pakistan and Afghanistan, northern Nigeria, and Ukraine. At low levels of inadvertent tOPV use, the minimum time after the switch for the inadvertent use to cause a cVDPV2 outbreak decreases sharply with increasing proportions of children inadvertently receiving tOPV. The minimum times until inadvertent tOPV use in an SIA or in RI can lead to a cVDPV2 outbreak varies widely among populations, with higher basic reproduction numbers, lower tOPV-induced population immunity to serotype 2 poliovirus transmission prior to the switch, and a lower proportion of transmission occurring via the oropharyngeal route all resulting in shorter times. In populations with the lowest expected immunity to serotype 2 poliovirus transmission after the switch, inadvertent tOPV use in an SIA leads to a cVDPV2 outbreak if it occurs as soon as 9 months after the switch with 0.5 % of children aged 0-4 years inadvertently

  2. Case study on the utility of hepatic global gene expression profiling in the risk assessment of the carcinogen furan

    Jackson, Anna Francina, E-mail: Francina.Jackson@hc-sc.gc.ca [Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa K1A 0K9 (Canada); Department of Biology, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa K1S 5B6 (Canada); Williams, Andrew, E-mail: Andrew.Williams@hc-sc.gc.ca [Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa K1A 0K9 (Canada); Recio, Leslie, E-mail: lrecio@ils-inc.com [ILS, Inc., P.O. Box 13501, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (United States); Waters, Michael D., E-mail: mwaters@ils-inc.com [ILS, Inc., P.O. Box 13501, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (United States); Lambert, Iain B., E-mail: Iain.Lambert@carleton.ca [Department of Biology, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa K1S 5B6 (Canada); Yauk, Carole L., E-mail: Carole.Yauk@hc-sc.gc.ca [Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa K1A 0K9 (Canada)

    2014-01-01

    Furan is a chemical hepatocarcinogen in mice and rats. Its previously postulated cancer mode of action (MOA) is chronic cytotoxicity followed by sustained regenerative proliferation; however, its molecular basis is unknown. To this end, we conducted toxicogenomic analysis of B3C6F1 mouse livers following three week exposures to non-carcinogenic (0, 1, 2 mg/kg bw) or carcinogenic (4 and 8 mg/kg bw) doses of furan. We saw enrichment for pathways responsible for cytotoxicity: stress-activated protein kinase (SAPK) and death receptor (DR5 and TNF-alpha) signaling, and proliferation: extracellular signal-regulated kinases (ERKs) and TNF-alpha. We also noted the involvement of NF-kappaB and c-Jun in response to furan, which are genes that are known to be required for liver regeneration. Furan metabolism by CYP2E1 produces cis-2-butene-1,4-dial (BDA), which is required for ensuing cytotoxicity and oxidative stress. NRF2 is a master regulator of gene expression during oxidative stress and we suggest that chronic NFR2 activity and chronic inflammation may represent critical transition events between the adaptive (regeneration) and adverse (cancer) outcomes. Another objective of this study was to demonstrate the applicability of toxicogenomics data in quantitative risk assessment. We modeled benchmark doses for our transcriptional data and previously published cancer data, and observed consistency between the two. Margin of exposure values for both transcriptional and cancer endpoints were also similar. In conclusion, using furan as a case study we have demonstrated the value of toxicogenomics data in elucidating dose-dependent MOA transitions and in quantitative risk assessment. - Highlights: • Global gene expression changes in furan-exposed mouse livers were analyzed. • A molecular mode of action for furan-induced hepatocarcinogenesis is proposed. • Key pathways include NRF2, SAPK, ERK and death receptor signaling. • Important roles for TNF-alpha, c-Jun, and NF

  3. Case study on the utility of hepatic global gene expression profiling in the risk assessment of the carcinogen furan

    Jackson, Anna Francina; Williams, Andrew; Recio, Leslie; Waters, Michael D.; Lambert, Iain B.; Yauk, Carole L.

    2014-01-01

    Furan is a chemical hepatocarcinogen in mice and rats. Its previously postulated cancer mode of action (MOA) is chronic cytotoxicity followed by sustained regenerative proliferation; however, its molecular basis is unknown. To this end, we conducted toxicogenomic analysis of B3C6F1 mouse livers following three week exposures to non-carcinogenic (0, 1, 2 mg/kg bw) or carcinogenic (4 and 8 mg/kg bw) doses of furan. We saw enrichment for pathways responsible for cytotoxicity: stress-activated protein kinase (SAPK) and death receptor (DR5 and TNF-alpha) signaling, and proliferation: extracellular signal-regulated kinases (ERKs) and TNF-alpha. We also noted the involvement of NF-kappaB and c-Jun in response to furan, which are genes that are known to be required for liver regeneration. Furan metabolism by CYP2E1 produces cis-2-butene-1,4-dial (BDA), which is required for ensuing cytotoxicity and oxidative stress. NRF2 is a master regulator of gene expression during oxidative stress and we suggest that chronic NFR2 activity and chronic inflammation may represent critical transition events between the adaptive (regeneration) and adverse (cancer) outcomes. Another objective of this study was to demonstrate the applicability of toxicogenomics data in quantitative risk assessment. We modeled benchmark doses for our transcriptional data and previously published cancer data, and observed consistency between the two. Margin of exposure values for both transcriptional and cancer endpoints were also similar. In conclusion, using furan as a case study we have demonstrated the value of toxicogenomics data in elucidating dose-dependent MOA transitions and in quantitative risk assessment. - Highlights: • Global gene expression changes in furan-exposed mouse livers were analyzed. • A molecular mode of action for furan-induced hepatocarcinogenesis is proposed. • Key pathways include NRF2, SAPK, ERK and death receptor signaling. • Important roles for TNF-alpha, c-Jun, and NF

  4. The present global financial and economic crisis poses an additional risk factor for mental health problems on the employees.

    Avčin, Bojana Avguštin; Kučina, Andrea Užmah; Sarotar, Brigita Novak; Radovanović, Mirjana; Plesničar, Blanka Kores

    2011-09-01

    The global financial and economic crisis starting in 2007 led to a deterioration of several socio-economic determinants of mental health. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to examine the impact of the present economic crisis on the depression and anxiety levels of the employed in the private and public sector in Slovenia. Altogether 1592 employees completed an internet based self-reported questionnaire. Data about perceived impact of the economic crisis, several socio-demographic, socioeconomic, and health parameters were collected. Depression symptoms were assessed by the Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression Scale and anxiety symptoms by the Spielberger State-Inventory. Regression models were used 1) to explore the associations of the economic crisis with the level of depression and anxiety symptoms while controlling for some sociodemographic and work characteristic variables, and 2) to understand the relationship between some potentially important socioeconomic variables and the perception of the economic crisis. Depressive and anxiety scores were significantly increased among 590 (46.6%) employees being affected by the economic crisis. The level of depressive symptoms was significantly associated with perceived impact by the crisis, recent sick leave, reported injuries sustained at work, benzodiazepine and analgesic use, the lack of emotional support, and trust in crisis telephone lines. The level of anxiety symptoms yielded the robust association with the level of depression symptoms, reported injuries sustained on the way to work and education. The economic crisis poses an additional risk factor for mental health problems which clinicians should internalize and become more aware of them. Symptoms of depression and anxiety can be masked in high-utilizers of medical care with physical complaints or psychoactive drug use.

  5. Self-other differences in H1N1 flu risk perception in a global context: a comparative study between the United States and China.

    Han, Gang Kevin; Zhang, Jueman Mandy; Chu, Kejun Rebecca; Shen, Guolin

    2014-01-01

    Extending research on self-other differences in perception to a global health risk, this study compares U.S. and Chinese college students' perceived H1N1 flu risk at four levels: personal, group, societal, and global. It also examines how personal experience, interpersonal communication, traditional and Internet-based media, and self-efficacy affect perception at four levels, as well as the self-other differences between the personal level and each of the other three levels. An online survey in both countries reveals an "ascending pattern," showing higher perceived risk for others than for selves. Chinese respondents perceive higher risk than U.S. respondents at all levels. Interpersonal communication predicts risk perception at four levels in the United States and at the group and societal levels in China. New media exposure exerts influence on all but the group level in China, while social networking sites (SNS) exposure predicts group- and societal-level risk perception in the United States. The overall attention paid to H1N1 information in the media affects all levels in both countries. Interaction between media exposure and attention is influential at all levels in the United States. Self-efficacy is negatively associated with risk perception in China except at the global level. Attention to media in the United States, and SNS exposure in China, explain the self-other differences in three comparisons, along with self-efficacy, which decreases the self-other gap in the United States while increasing the gap in China.

  6. Globally-Applicable Predictive Wildfire Model   a Temporal-Spatial GIS Based Risk Analysis Using Data Driven Fuzzy Logic Functions

    van den Dool, G.

    2017-11-01

    This study (van den Dool, 2017) is a proof of concept for a global predictive wildfire model, in which the temporal-spatial characteristics of wildfires are placed in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and the risk analysis is based on data-driven fuzzy logic functions. The data sources used in this model are available as global datasets, but subdivided into three pilot areas: North America (California/Nevada), Europe (Spain), and Asia (Mongolia), and are downscaled to the highest resolution (3-arc second). The GIS is constructed around three themes: topography, fuel availability and climate. From the topographical data, six derived sub-themes are created and converted to a fuzzy membership based on the catchment area statistics. The fuel availability score is a composite of four data layers: land cover, wood loads, biomass, biovolumes. As input for the climatological sub-model reanalysed daily averaged, weather-related data is used, which is accumulated to a global weekly time-window (to account for the uncertainty within the climatological model) and forms the temporal component of the model. The final product is a wildfire risk score (from 0 to 1) by week, representing the average wildfire risk in an area. To compute the potential wildfire risk the sub-models are combined usinga Multi-Criteria Approach, and the model results are validated against the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve.

  7. The Global Epidemiologic Transition: Noncommunicable Diseases and Emerging Health Risk of Allergic Disease in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Atiim, George A.; Elliott, Susan J.

    2016-01-01

    Globally, there has been a shift in the causes of illness and death from infectious diseases to noncommunicable diseases. This changing pattern has been attributed to the effects of an (ongoing) epidemiologic transition. Although researchers have applied epidemiologic transition theory to questions of global health, there have been relatively few…

  8. Wilting and biological additive effect on in situ degradability and chemical composition of Arachis pintoi cv Belomonte silage

    Rosana Aparecida Possenti; Evaldo Ferrari Júnior; Valdinei Tadeu Paulino; Ivani Pozar Otsuk; Patrícia Brás

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this work was to evaluate the effect of wilting and biological additive amendment on chemical composition, fermentation and ruminal degradability of Arachis pintoi cv Belmonte silage. The following treatments were analysed: T1- Arachis pintoi cv Belmonte fresh forage; T2 - Arachis pintoi cv Belmonte fresh forage plus bacterial additive added to the forage prior to the ensilage; T3- Arachis pintoi cv Belmonte wilted by the sun for 4 hours; T4- Arachis pintoi cv Belmonte wilted b...

  9. Relationship between Cardiovascular Risk Score and Traditional and Nontraditional Cardiometabolic Parameters in Obese Adolescent Girls

    Klisic Aleksandra

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Since the cardiovascular (CV risk score in the young population, children and adolescents, is underestimated, especially in developing countries such as Montenegro, where a strong interaction exists between the genetically conditioned CV risk and environmental factors, the purpose of this study was to estimate CV risk in apparently healthy adolescent girls. Moreover, we aimed to test some new, emerging CV risk factors and their interaction with the traditional ones, such as obesity. Precisely, we aimed to assess the impact of low bilirubin levels, as a routine biochemical parameter, as an additional risk factor for atherosclerotic disease in the adult phase.

  10. Analisis Tingkat Kepuasan Kerja Karyawan pada CV Sumber Pangan di Denpasar

    SUPRATMAN, I WAYAN NOVA; USTRIYANA, I NYOMAN GEDE; DEWI, IDA AYU LISTIA

    2016-01-01

    Analysis of Job Satisfaction at CV Food Sources in DenpasarHuman resources is a factor of production which is very important for a company,compared with other factors of production include natural resources, capital, andskills. The purpose of this study was to determine the level of employee satisfactionCV Food Source in Denpasar. The location determination is done deliberately. Thetotal number of the population sampled that stout 40 employees CV Source of Foodin Denpasar. The factors used in...

  11. Global alcohol exposure estimates by country, territory and region for 2005--a contribution to the Comparative Risk Assessment for the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study.

    Shield, Kevin D; Rylett, Margaret; Gmel, Gerhard; Gmel, Gerrit; Kehoe-Chan, Tara A K; Rehm, Jürgen

    2013-05-01

    This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of life-time abstainers, former drinkers and current drinkers, adult per-capita consumption of alcohol and pattern of drinking scores, by country and Global Burden of Disease region for 2005, and to forecast these indicators for 2010. Statistical modelling based on survey data and routine statistics. A total of 241 countries and territories. Per-capita consumption data were obtained with the help of the World Health Organization's Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Drinking status data were obtained from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study, the STEPwise approach to Surveillance study, the World Health Survey/Multi-Country Study and other surveys. Consumption and drinking status data were triangulated to estimate alcohol consumption across multiple categories. In 2005 adult per-capita annual consumption of alcohol was 6.1 litres, with 1.7 litres stemming from unrecorded consumption; 17.1 litres of alcohol were consumed per drinker, 45.8% of all adults were life-time abstainers, 13.6% were former drinkers and 40.6% were current drinkers. Life-time abstention was most prevalent in North Africa/Middle East and South Asia. Eastern Europe and Southern sub-Saharan Africa had the most detrimental pattern of drinking scores, while drinkers in Europe (Eastern and Central) and sub-Saharan Africa (Southern and West) consumed the most alcohol. Just over 40% of the world's adult population consumes alcohol and the average consumption per drinker is 17.1 litres per year. However, the prevalence of abstention, level of alcohol consumption and patterns of drinking vary widely across regions of the world. © 2013 The Authors, Addiction © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  12. Pengaruh Budaya Organisasi, Kepemimpinan, dan Motivasi Kerja terhadap Kepuasan Kerja Karyawan CV Surya Raya

    Laksmi Sito Dwi Irvianti

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available This research was conducted on CV Surya Raya which is engaged in car shipping. The aim of this study is to determine the influence of organization culture, leadership, and working motivation partially to employees’ satisfaction in CV Surya Raya. The data was collected by conducting interviews with the company and distributing questionnaires to 67 employees as respondents and then analyzed using linear regression analysis method. From the research results, leadership variable does not have a significant impact on employees' job satisfaction in CV Surya Raya. Whereas, the motivation variable has greater influence on job satisfaction of CV Surya Raya employees compared to the organization's culture.

  13. CIVAC CV-01 type pressure gage for middle vacuum pumps

    Olaru, Grigore; Aculai, Agustin

    1997-01-01

    The digital display pressure gage CIVAC CV-01 measures absolute pressures in vacuum range of 10 2 - 10 -3 mbar in any installation or equipment generating or using low pressures. It uses a transducer type PIRANI, model TR-02. It is a portable device, easy to exploit and handle. It is applied in research, chemistry, metallurgical industry, mechanical engineering. The system of coupling the transducer to the enclosure where the pressure is to be measured is of type ISO-PNEUROP with flange, collar and adjusting ring with a DN 25 ring gasket. The technical and functional features are: - Measuring error: ± 35% of real conventional value ; - Response time: 20 ms; - Number of measuring points: 1; - Output signal: 0 - 10 V d.c.; - Repeatability error: 5%; - Max weight: 1,600 Kg; Size: 91 x 117 x 187 mm. (authors)

  14. Cytotoxic diterpenoids from Jatropha curcas cv. nigroviensrugosus CY Yang Roots.

    Liu, JieQing; Yang, YuanFeng; Xia, JianJun; Li, XuYang; Li, ZhongRong; Zhou, Lin; Qiu, MingHua

    2015-09-01

    An investigation of phytochemicals from the roots of Jatropha curcas cv. nigroviensrugosus resulted in the isolation of twenty diterpenoids, including lathyranlactone, an unusual diterpenoid lactone possessing a 5/13/3 tricyclic skeleton, jatrocurcasenones A-E and jatrophodiones B-E, as well as 10 known analogues. All isolates were evaluated for cytotoxicity against the HL-60, SMMC-772, A-549, MCF-7 and SW480 human tumor cell lines using the MTS viability assay. Four of the known analogues showed cytotoxic activity in these cell lines, with IC50 values ranging from 2.0 to 23.0 μM. Moreover, the assessment of their cytotoxic structure-activity relationships showed the epoxy ring between C-5 and C-6 and the hydroxyl group at C-2 were the key functionalities for cytotoxicity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Sign Language Translator Application Using OpenCV

    Triyono, L.; Pratisto, E. H.; Bawono, S. A. T.; Purnomo, F. A.; Yudhanto, Y.; Raharjo, B.

    2018-03-01

    This research focuses on the development of sign language translator application using OpenCV Android based, this application is based on the difference in color. The author also utilizes Support Machine Learning to predict the label. Results of the research showed that the coordinates of the fingertip search methods can be used to recognize a hand gesture to the conditions contained open arms while to figure gesture with the hand clenched using search methods Hu Moments value. Fingertip methods more resilient in gesture recognition with a higher success rate is 95% on the distance variation is 35 cm and 55 cm and variations of light intensity of approximately 90 lux and 100 lux and light green background plain condition compared with the Hu Moments method with the same parameters and the percentage of success of 40%. While the background of outdoor environment applications still can not be used with a success rate of only 6 managed and the rest failed.

  16. Gamma irradiation studies on Gladiolus cv. White Friendship

    Banerji, B.K.; Datta, S.K.; Sharma, S.C.

    1994-01-01

    Dormant corms of Gladiolus cv. White Friendship were irradiated with 250, 500, 750, 1000 and 1250 Gy of gamma rays. Reduction in survival, plant height, number of leaves and floret, spike length, leaf and corm size and delayed flowering were recorded after irradiation. Morphological abnormalities in foliage and florets and chromosomal aberration during root tip mitosis increased with increase in exposure. Flowering was ceased cent per cent in highest dose of 1250 Gy. LD 50 on survival basis was found in 750 Gy exposure. MV 2 and MV 3 also followed the similar pattern of results as exhibited by MV 1 plants. Pink flower colour mutation was detected in few plants as sectorial chimeric form in MV 2 in treated population. In MV 3 one plant produced spike with lighter pink florets in 750 Gy treatment. This mutant has been isolated in pure form. (author). 10 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  17. Induced somatic mutation in mango, mangifera indica L. cv. Langra

    Siddiqui, S.H.

    1985-01-01

    Dormant buds of mango (Mangifera indica L. cv. Langra) exposed to acute gamma-irradiation dosages of 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 and 6.0 kiloroentgens (kR), were grafted on to one-year-old seedling stock. Dosages of 2.0 and 3.0 kR were found satisfactory for the purpose, as measured by bud lethality and scion growth. A bud graft from 3.0 kR bore fruits of excellent quality. Compared with the control, the fruits were heavier, larger and had more creamish-yellow pulp. None of the other morphological changes expressed by the mutant fruits, observed over three fruiting seasons, were disadvantageous. The tree habit is being further investigated before the mutant can be considered for release as an improved cultivar. (author)

  18. Analisis Pengukuran Produktivitas Perusahaan Alsintan CV. Cherry Sarana Agro

    Prima Fithri

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available CV Cherry Sarana Agro is a manufacturing company, which produces agricultural machinery. In reality, company evaluatesits work and performance based on level of profits. In order to maintain the company's performance, it is necessary to measures the productivity of company to see how effective the performance of this company. So it can be determined what is needed in order to improve the performance of the company and also can increase profits. Measuring the productivity can be seen from the financial data that obtained from the company. Then based on data processing, show this company's productivity levels decreased during the period of measurement and it means company requires efforts to increase the efficient use of inputs. It is necessary for company to increase its productivity for the future. This improvement was made by taking into account the partial productivity as inputs that affect the profitability of the company on an ongoing basis.

  19. CV activities on the LHC complex during the long shutdown

    Deleval, S; Body, Y; Obrecht, M; Moccia, S; Peon, G

    2011-01-01

    The presentation gives an overview of the major projects and work foreseen to be performed during next long shutdown on cooling and ventilation plants. Several projects are needed following the experience of the last years when LHC was running, in particular the modifications in the water cooling circuits presently in overflow. Some other projects are linked to the CV consolidation plan. Finally, most of the work shall be done to respond to additional requests: SR buildings air conditioning, the need to be able to clean and maintain the LHC cooling towers without a complete stop of cooling circuits, the upgrade of the air conditioning of the CCC rack room cooling etc. For all these activities, the author will detail constraints and the impact on the schedule and on the operation of the plants that will however need to run for most of the shutdown duration. The consequence of postponing the long shutdown from 2012 to 2013 will be also covered.

  20. Propolis extract in postharvest conservation Solo papaya cv. 'Golden'

    Flávia Regina Passos

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The high perishability of papaya (Carica papaya L. reduces its lifespan as well as limits marketing. Coating the fruits is an alternative to aid food preservation. We aimed to evaluate the effects of coating propolis extract on the physicochemical characteristics of papaya stored at room temperature. Solo papayas cv. 'Golden' were randomly divided into five postharvest treatment groups, three forms of dip-coating (70% alcohol, hydroalcoholic extract of propolis to 2.5%, and hydroalcoholic extract of propolis to 5% and two controls (one uncoated and one with refrigerated uncoated fruits. The weight loss, firmness, soluble solids (SS, titratable acidity (TA, SS/TA, and hydrogen potential (pH were evaluated at the intervals of 4 days every 12th storage day. Sensory analysis was performed on the 4th day of storage of papayas and evaluated by untrained through the acceptance testing. Treatments “refrigerated”, “propolis 2.5%”, and “5% propolis” presented with the lowest weight loss. The firmness level for treatment propolis 5% was superior to that of control, alcohol, and 2.5% propolis treatments. The SS was greater for propolis 5% treatment, which only differed from the alcohol treatment. The TA and SS/TA did not vary with the treatments, but with the storage time. The pH of refrigerated papaya showed significant differences in relation to other treatments. The fruits subjected to refrigerated treatment presented with chilling injury. Papayas coated with propolis extract showed sensory acceptability similar to that in other treatments on the 4th day of storage. The coating of propolis extract is a promising alternative for the control of weight loss and for the maintenance of firmness in Solo papaya cv. 'Golden'.

  1. Core Problem: Does the CV Parent Body Magnetization require differentiation?

    O'Brien, T.; Tarduno, J. A.; Smirnov, A. V.

    2016-12-01

    Evidence for the presence of past dynamos from magnetic studies of meteorites can provide key information on the nature and evolution of parent bodies. However, the suggestion of a past core dynamo for the CV parent body based on the study of the Allende meteorite has led to a paradox: a core dynamo requires differentiation, evidence for which is missing in the meteorite record. The key parameter used to distinguish core dynamo versus external field mechanisms is absolute field paleointensity, with high values (>>1 μT) favoring the former. Here we explore the fundamental requirements for absolute field intensity measurement in the Allende meteorite: single domain grains that are non-interacting. Magnetic hysteresis and directional data define strong magnetic interactions, negating a standard interpretation of paleointensity measurements in terms of absolute paleofield values. The Allende low field magnetic susceptibility is dominated by magnetite and FeNi grains, whereas the magnetic remanence is carried by an iron sulfide whose remanence-carrying capacity increases with laboratory cycling at constant field values, indicating reordering. The iron sulfide and FeNi grains are in close proximity, providing mineralogical context for interactions. We interpret the magnetization of Allende to record the intense early solar wind with metal-sulfide interactions amplifying the field, giving the false impression of a higher field value in some prior studies. An undifferentiated CV parent body is thus compatible with Allende's magnetization. Early solar wind magnetization should be the null hypothesis for evaluating the source of magnetization for chondrites and other meteorites.

  2. Global Derivatives

    Andersen, Torben Juul

    approaches to dealing in the global business environment." - Sharon Brown-Hruska, Commissioner, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, USA. "This comprehensive survey of modern risk management using derivative securities is a fine demonstration of the practical relevance of modern derivatives theory to risk......" provides comprehensive coverage of different types of derivatives, including exchange traded contracts and over-the-counter instruments as well as real options. There is an equal emphasis on the practical application of derivatives and their actual uses in business transactions and corporate risk...... management situations. Its key features include: derivatives are introduced in a global market perspective; describes major derivative pricing models for practical use, extending these principles to valuation of real options; practical applications of derivative instruments are richly illustrated...

  3. PREFACE: The IARU International Scientific Congress on Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions (10-12 March, Copenhagen, Denmark)

    2009-01-01

    In an attempt to make the main results from the Congress on Climate Change: Global Risk, Challenges and Decisions available to the public as early as possible, the steering committee decided to publish all talks and posters presented at the Congress in this unique collection of abstracts, in time for the conference Further to the abstract collection the Congress will publish two more products in the near future as described in the following; a synthesis report with the main conclusions, and a book aimed at an academic audience 1 Two Products from the Congress Two products are being produced based on the presentations and discussions at the Congress The first product will be a synthesis report of the main conclusions from the Congress The synthesis report will be ready in June 2009 The synthesis has the purpose of explaining the current state of understanding man-made climate change and what we can do about it to the non-scientist, ie politicians, media and interested citizens The synthesis will build on the messages presented to the Danish Prime Minister, Mr Anders Fogh Rasmussen, host of the COP15, at the closing session of the Congress These six messages were drafted by the Writing Team (see below) based on input from the session chairs and a reading of the 1600+ abstracts submitted to the Congress The second product is a book aimed at an academic audience The book will include more detailed scientific results from all of the sessions and will be published by Cambridge University Press in 2010 It will be an extension and elaboration of the synthesis report Who's writing the Synthesis Report and the Book? A Writing Team consisting of 12 internationally respected scientists from all continents is responsible for developing both products When the synthesis report has been drafted by the Writing Team, it will be discussed in the Scientific Steering Committee of the Congress and reviewed by the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) and a group of experts identified

  4. Epigenetic factors in cancer risk: effect of chemical carcinogens on global DNA methylation pattern in human TK6 cells.

    Ali M Tabish

    Full Text Available In the current study, we assessed the global DNA methylation changes in human lymphoblastoid (TK6 cells in vitro in response to 5 direct and 10 indirect-acting genotoxic agents. TK6 cells were exposed to the selected agents for 24 h in the presence and/or absence of S9 metabolic mix. Liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry was used for quantitative profiling of 5-methyl-2'-deoxycytidine. The effect of exposure on 5-methyl-2'-deoxycytidine between control and exposed cultures was assessed by applying the marginal model with correlated residuals on % global DNA methylation data. We reporte