WorldWideScience

Sample records for global climate impacts

  1. Climate change impacts on global food security.

    Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

    2013-08-02

    Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

  2. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower

    Aanund Killingtveit

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Currently, hydropower accounts for close to 16% of the world’s total power supply and is the world’s most dominant (86% source of renewable electrical energy. The key resource for hydropower generation is runoff, which is dependent on precipitation. The future global climate is uncertain and thus poses some risk for the hydropower generation sector. The crucial question and challenge then is what will be the impact of climate change on global hydropower generation and what are the resulting regional variations in hydropower generation potential? This paper is a study that aims to evaluate the changes in global hydropower generation resulting from predicted changes in climate. The study uses an ensemble of simulations of regional patterns of changes in runoff, computed from global circulation models (GCM simulations with 12 different models. Based on these runoff changes, hydropower generation is estimated by relating the runoff changes to hydropower generation potential through geographical information system (GIS, based on 2005 hydropower generation. Hydropower data obtained from EIA (energy generation, national sites, FAO (water resources and UNEP were used in the analysis. The countries/states were used as computational units to reduce the complexities of the analysis. The results indicate that there are large variations of changes (increases/decreases in hydropower generation across regions and even within regions. Globally, hydropower generation is predicted to change very little by the year 2050 for the hydropower system in operation today. This change amounts to an increase of less than 1% of the current (2005 generation level although it is necessary to carry out basin level detailed assessment for local impacts which may differ from the country based values. There are many regions where runoff and hydropower generation will increase due to increasing precipitation, but also many regions where there will be a decrease. Based on this

  3. Amazonia: Burning and global climate impacts

    Molion, L.C.B.

    1991-01-01

    In recent years, humans have been playing a major role in reducing the natural forest cover in the tropics through different forms of slash and burn. The most serious destruction, it is said, is occurring in the Amazon, which is the largest expanse of tropical forest remaining on the planet. This chapter reviews briefly the causes and the extent of Amazonian deforestation and focuses on its global and local climate impacts. In addition, the effects of loss of diversity and need to preserve Indian cultures and societies are briefly discussed

  4. Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

    Xiaohui Tian; Brent Sohngen; John B Kim; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, theMC2model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase...

  5. Climate change and global crop yield: impacts, uncertainties and adaptation

    Deryng, Delphine

    2014-01-01

    As global mean temperature continues to rise steadily, agricultural systems are projected to face unprecedented challenges to cope with climate change. However, understanding of climate change impacts on global crop yield, and of farmers’ adaptive capacity, remains incomplete as previous global assessments: (1) inadequately evaluated the role of extreme weather events; (2) focused on a small subset of the full range of climate change predictions; (3) overlooked uncertainties related to the ch...

  6. Comparing Forecasts of the Global Impacts of Climate Change

    Mendelsohn, R.; Williams, L.

    2004-01-01

    This paper utilizes the predictions of several Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models and the Global Impact Model to create forecasts of the global market impacts from climate change. The forecasts of market impacts in 2100 vary considerably depending on climate scenarios and climate impact sensitivity. The models do concur that tropical nations will be hurt, temperate nations will be barely affected, and high latitude nations will benefit. Although the size of these effects varies a great deal across models, the beneficial and harmful effects are offsetting, so that the net impact on the globe is relatively small in almost all outcomes. Looking only at market impacts, the forecasts suggest that while the global net benefits of abatement are small, the distribution of damages suggests a large equity problem that could be addressed through a compensation program. The large uncertainty surrounding these forecasts further suggests that continued monitoring of both the climate and impacts is worthwhile

  7. Global climate change impacts in the United States

    2009-06-01

    This report summarizes the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. It is largely based on results of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a and integrates those results wit...

  8. Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

    Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

    2002-01-01

    The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors

  9. The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

    Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

    2003-01-01

    Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

  10. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Overview

    Karl, T. R.

    2009-12-01

    This past year the US Global Change Research Program released a report that summarized the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. The report underscores the importance of measures to reduce climate change. In the context of impacts, the report identifies examples of actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change. This state-of-knowledge report also identifies areas in which scientific uncertainty limits our ability to estimate future climate changes and its impacts. Key findings of the report include: (1) Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human induced. - This statement is stronger than the IPCC (2007) statement because new attribution studies since that report continue to implicate human caused changes over the past 50 years. (2) Climate Changes are underway in the Unites States and are projected to grow. - These include increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons lengthening ice-free seasons in the oceans and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt and alteration in river flows. (3) Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. - The impacts vary from region to region, but are already affecting many sectors e.g., water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, etc. (4) Climate change will stress water resources. - Water is an issue in every region of the US, but the nature of the impacts vary (5) Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. - Warming related to high emission scenarios often negatively affect crop growth and yields levels. Increased pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crops and livestock production. (6) Coastal areas are at increased risk from

  11. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Adaptation

    Pulwarty, R.

    2009-12-01

    Adaptation measures improve our ability to cope with or avoid harmful climate impacts and take advantage of beneficial ones, now and as climate varies and changes. Adaptation and mitigation are necessary elements of an effective response to climate change. Adaptation options also have the potential to moderate harmful impacts of current and future climate variability and change. The Global Climate Change Impacts Report identifies examples of adaptation-related actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change, as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change such as urban air pollution and heat waves. Some adaptation options that are currently being pursued in various regions and sectors to deal with climate change and/or other environmental issues are identified in this report. A range of adaptation responses can be employed to reduce risks through redesign or relocation of infrastructure, sustainability of ecosystem services, increased redundancy of critical social services, and operational improvements. Adapting to climate change is an evolutionary process and requires both analytic and deliberative decision support. Many of the climate change impacts described in the report have economic consequences. A significant part of these consequences flow through public and private insurance markets, which essentially aggregate and distribute society's risk. However, in most cases, there is currently insufficient robust information to evaluate the practicality, efficiency, effectiveness, costs, or benefits of adaptation measures, highlighting a need for research. Adaptation planning efforts such as that being conducted in New York City and the Colorado River will be described. Climate will be continually changing, moving at a relatively rapid rate, outside the range to which society has adapted in the past. The precise amounts and timing of these changes will not be known with certainty. The

  12. GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL:A COMPREHENSIVE TOOL IN CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT STUDIES

    Dharmaveer Singh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available There is growing concern, how and to what extent future changes in climate will affect human society and natural environments. Continuous emissions of Green House Gasses (GHGs at or above current rates will cause further warming. This, in turn, may modify global climate system during 21st century that very likely would have larger impacts than those observed during 20th century. At present, Global Climate Models (GCMs are only the most reliable tools available for studying behaviour of the climate system. This paper presents a comprehensive review of GCMs including their development and applications in climate change impacts studies. Following a discussion of the limitations of GCMs at regional and local scales, different approaches of downscaling are discussed in detail.

  13. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  14. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  15. The Impact Of Climate Change On Water Resources: Global And ...

    GHGs) is increasing and this has resulted to changing global climate with increasing temperature. The rise in global average temperatures since 1860 now exceeds 0.6OC. The effect of the GHGs concentration on global warming as at 2100 is ...

  16. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    S. Hagemann

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three and hydrological models (eight were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. This multi-model ensemble allows us to investigate how the hydrology models contribute to the uncertainty in projected hydrological changes compared to the climate models. Due to their systematic biases, GCM outputs cannot be used directly in hydrological impact studies, so a statistical bias correction has been applied. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for hydrological change, and that the spread resulting from the choice of the hydrology model is larger than the spread originating from the climate models over many areas. But there are also areas showing a robust change signal, such as at high latitudes and in some midlatitude regions, where the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative of higher confidence in this ensemble mean signal. In many catchments an increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe decreases in Central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi River basin, southern Africa, southern China and south-eastern Australia.

  17. Climate change impacts on global agricultural land availability

    Zhang Xiao; Cai Ximing

    2011-01-01

    Climate change can affect both crop yield and the land area suitable for agriculture. This study provides a spatially explicit estimate of the impact of climate change on worldwide agricultural land availability, considering uncertainty in climate change projections and ambiguity with regard to land classification. Uncertainty in general circulation model (GCM) projections is addressed using data assembled from thirteen GCMs and two representative emission scenarios (A1B and B1 employ CO 2 -equivalent greenhouse gas concentrations of 850 and 600 ppmv, respectively; B1 represents a greener economy). Erroneous data and the uncertain nature of land classifications based on multiple indices (i.e. soil properties, land slope, temperature, and humidity) are handled with fuzzy logic modeling. It is found that the total global arable land area is likely to decrease by 0.8-1.7% under scenario A1B and increase by 2.0-4.4% under scenario B1. Regions characterized by relatively high latitudes such as Russia, China and the US may expect an increase of total arable land by 37-67%, 22-36% and 4-17%, respectively, while tropical and sub-tropical regions may suffer different levels of lost arable land. For example, South America may lose 1-21% of its arable land area, Africa 1-18%, Europe 11-17%, and India 2-4%. When considering, in addition, land used for human settlements and natural conservation, the net potential arable land may decrease even further worldwide by the end of the 21st century under both scenarios due to population growth. Regionally, it is likely that both climate change and population growth will cause reductions in arable land in Africa, South America, India and Europe. However, in Russia, China and the US, significant arable land increases may still be possible. Although the magnitudes of the projected changes vary by scenario, the increasing or decreasing trends in arable land area are regionally consistent.

  18. Modeling the potential impacts of global climate change in ...

    One of the hottest issues in the recent environmental research worldwide has become the harmful effects of climate change on the ecosystems and environment due to global warming. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries not only in the South East Asia but also in the world. It is predicted that a large portion of ...

  19. Climate Change and Expected Impacts on the Global Water Cycle

    Rind, David; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    How the elements of the global hydrologic cycle may respond to climate change is reviewed, first from a discussion of the physical sensitivity of these elements to changes in temperature, and then from a comparison of observations of hydrologic changes over the past 100 million years. Observations of current changes in the hydrologic cycle are then compared with projected future changes given the prospect of global warming. It is shown that some of the projections come close to matching the estimated hydrologic changes that occurred long ago when the earth was very warm.

  20. Global warming and climate change in Amazonia: Climate-vegetation feedback and impacts on water resources

    Marengo, José; Nobre, Carlos A.; Betts, Richard A.; Cox, Peter M.; Sampaio, Gilvan; Salazar, Luis

    This chapter constitutes an updated review of long-term climate variability and change in the Amazon region, based on observational data spanning more than 50 years of records and on climate-change modeling studies. We start with the early experiments on Amazon deforestation in the late 1970s, and the evolution of these experiments to the latest studies on greenhouse gases emission scenarios and land use changes until the end of the twenty-first century. The "Amazon dieback" simulated by the HadCM3 model occurs after a "tipping point" of CO2 concentration and warming. Experiments on Amazon deforestation and change of climate suggest that once a critical deforestation threshold (or tipping point) of 40-50% forest loss is reached in eastern Amazonia, climate would change in a way which is dangerous for the remaining forest. This may favor a collapse of the tropical forest, with a substitution of the forest by savanna-type vegetation. The concept of "dangerous climate change," as a climate change, which induces positive feedback, which accelerate the change, is strongly linked to the occurrence of tipping points, and it can be explained as the presence of feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, particularly involving a weakening of the current terrestrial carbon sink and a possible reversal from a sink (as in present climate) to a source by the year 2050. We must, therefore, currently consider the drying simulated by the Hadley Centre model(s) as having a finite probability under global warming, with a potentially enormous impact, but with some degree of uncertainty.

  1. Regionalizing global climate models

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  2. Impacts of continental arcs on global carbon cycling and climate

    Lee, C. T.; Jiang, H.; Carter, L.; Dasgupta, R.; Cao, W.; Lackey, J. S.; Lenardic, A.; Barnes, J.; McKenzie, R.

    2017-12-01

    On myr timescales, climatic variability is tied to variations in atmospheric CO2, which in turn is driven by geologic sources of CO2 and modulated by the efficiency of chemical weathering and carbonate precipitation (sinks). Long-term variability in CO2 has largely been attributed to changes in mid-ocean ridge inputs or the efficiency of global weathering. For example, the Cretaceous greenhouse is thought to be related to enhanced oceanic crust production, while the late Cenozoic icehouse is attributed to enhanced chemical weathering associated with the Himalayan orogeny. Here, we show that continental arcs may play a more important role in controlling climate, both in terms of sources and sinks. Continental arcs differ from island arcs and mid-ocean ridges in that the continental plate through which arc magmas pass may contain large amounts of sedimentary carbonate, accumulated over the history of the continent. Interaction of arc magmas with crustal carbonates via assimilation, reaction or heating can significantly add to the mantle-sourced CO2 flux. Detrital zircons and global mapping of basement rocks shows that the length of continental arcs in the Cretaceous was more than twice that in the mid-Cenozoic; maps also show many of these arcs intersected crustal carbonates. The increased length of continental arc magmatism coincided with increased oceanic spreading rates, placing convergent margins into compression, which favors continental arcs. Around 50 Ma, however, nearly all the continental arcs in Eurasia and North America terminated as India collided with Eurasia and the western Pacific rolled back, initiating the Marianas-Tonga-Kermadec intra-oceanic subduction complex and possibly leading to a decrease in global CO2 production. Meanwhile, extinct continental arcs continued to erode, resulting in regionally enhanced chemical weathering unsupported by magmatic fluxes of CO2. Continental arcs, during their magmatic lifetimes, are thus a source of CO2, driving

  3. A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    J. Heinke

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

  4. Impact of Global Climate on Rift Valley Fever and other Vector-borne Disease Outbreaks

    Linthicum, K. J.

    2017-12-01

    Rift Valley fever is a viral disease of animals and humans in Africa and the Middle East that is transmitted by mosquitoes. Since the virus was first isolated in Kenya in 1930 it has caused significant impact to animal and human health and national economies, and it is of concern to the international agricultural and public health community. In this presentation we will describe the (1) ecology of disease transmission as it relates to climate, (2) the impact of climate and other environmental conditions on outbreaks, (3) the ability to use global climate information to predict outbreaks, (4) effective response activities, and (4) the potential to mitigate globalization.

  5. The impact of climate change on the global wine industry: Challenges & solutions

    Michelle Renée Mozell

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the impact of climate change upon the global production of winegrapes and wine. It includes a review of the literature on the cause and effects of climate change, as well as illustrations of the specific challenges global warming may bring to the production of winegrapes and wine. More importantly, this paper provides some practical solutions that industry professionals can take to mitigate and adapt to the coming change in both vineyards and wineries.

  6. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

  7. Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century

    Estrada, Francisco; Tol, Richard S.J.; Botzen, Wouter J.W.

    2017-01-01

    Estimates of the global economic impacts of observed climate change during the 20th century obtained by applying five impact functions of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) are separated into their main natural and anthropogenic components. The estimates of the costs that can be

  8. Biomass burning: Its history, use, and distribution and its impact on environmental quality and global climate

    Andreae, M.O.

    1991-01-01

    In this chapter, the following topics are discussed: global estimates of amounts of biomass burning; kinds and amounts of emissions to the atmosphere; environmental transport and atmospheric chemistry of these emissions; and environmental impacts. These impacts include acid deposition, climate changes, disruption of nutrient cycles, soil degradation, perturbation of stratospheric chemistry and the ozone layer

  9. Global Farm Animal Production and Global Warming: Impacting and Mitigating Climate Change

    Koneswaran, Gowri; Nierenberg, Danielle

    2008-01-01

    Background The farm animal sector is the single largest anthropogenic user of land, contributing to many environmental problems, including global warming and climate change. Objectives The aim of this study was to synthesize and expand upon existing data on the contribution of farm animal production to climate change. Methods We analyzed the scientific literature on farm animal production and documented greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as various mitigation strategies. Discussions An a...

  10. Regional Climate Impacts of Stabilizing Global Warming at 1.5 K Using Solar Geoengineering

    Jones, Anthony C.; Hawcroft, Matthew K.; Haywood, James M.; Jones, Andy; Guo, Xiaoran; Moore, John C.

    2018-02-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end-of-century global warming of 2.6-3.1 K, in clear contradiction to the 1.5 K target. In this study, we use a global climate model to investigate the climatic impacts of using solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize global-mean temperature at 1.5 K for the duration of the 21st century against three scenarios spanning the range of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). In addition to stabilizing global mean temperature and offsetting both Arctic sea-ice loss and thermosteric sea-level rise, we find that solar geoengineering could effectively counteract enhancements to the frequency of extreme storms in the North Atlantic and heatwaves in Europe, but would be less effective at counteracting hydrological changes in the Amazon basin and North Atlantic storm track displacement. In summary, solar geoengineering may reduce global mean impacts but is an imperfect solution at the regional level, where the effects of climate change are experienced. Our results should galvanize research into the regionality of climate responses to solar geoengineering.

  11. Human Impacts on the Hydrologic Cycle: Comparing Global Climate Change and Local Water Management

    Ferguson, I. M.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2010-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is significantly altering the hydrologic cycle at global and regional scales, with potentially devastating impacts on water resources. Recent studies demonstrate that hydrologic response to climate change will depend on local-scale feedbacks between groundwater, surface water, and land surface processes. These studies suggest that local water management practices that alter the quantity and distribution of water in the terrestrial system—e.g., groundwater pumping and irrigation—may also feed back across the hydrologic cycle, with impacts on land-atmosphere fluxes and thus weather and climate. Here we use an integrated hydrologic model to compare the impacts of large-scale climate change and local water management practices on water and energy budgets at local and watershed scales. We consider three climate scenarios (hot, hot+wet, and hot+dry) and three management scenarios (pumping only, irrigation only, and pumping+irrigation). Results demonstrate that impacts of local water management on basin-integrated groundwater storage, evapotranspiration, and stream discharge are comparable to those of changing climate conditions. However, impacts of climate change are shown to have a smaller magnitude and greater spatial extent, while impacts of pumping and irrigation are shown to have a greater magnitude but are local to areas where pumping and irrigation occur. These results have important implications regarding the scales of human impacts on both water resources and climate and the sustainability of water resources.

  12. Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs

    Turner, Sean W. D.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Kim, Son H.; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, Jae

    2017-12-01

    Recent progress in global scale hydrological and dam modeling has allowed for the study of climate change impacts on global hydropower production. Here we explore the possible consequences of these impacts for the electricity supply sector. Regional hydropower projections are developed for two emissions scenarios by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations derived from sixteen general circulation models. Consequent impacts on power sector composition and associated emissions and investment costs are explored using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Changes in hydropower generation resulting from climate change can shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies, resulting in significant impacts on power sector CO2 emissions for certain world regions—primarily those located in Latin America, as well as Canada and parts of Europe. Reduced impacts of climate change on hydropower production under a low emissions scenario coincide with increased costs of marginal power generating capacity—meaning impacts on power sector investment costs are similar for high and low emissions scenarios. Individual countries where impacts on investment costs imply significant risks or opportunities are identified.

  13. Inconsistencies at the interface of climate impact studies and global climate research

    Storch, H. von.

    1994-01-01

    Most climate impacts studies, whether they deal with, for instance, terristric or marine ecosystems, coastal morphodynamics, storm surges and damages, or socio-economic aspects, utilize ''scenarios'' of possible future climate. Such scenarios are always based on the output of complex mathematical climate models, whenever they are in any sense detailed. Unfortunately, the user community of such scenarios usually is not well informed about the limitations and potentials of such models. On the other hand, the climate modeller community is not sufficiently aware of the demands on the side of the ''users''. The state of the art of climate models is revieved and the principal limitations concerning the spatial/time resolution and the accuracy of simulated data are discussed. The need for a ''downscaling strategy'' on the climate modeller side and for an ''upscaling'' strategy on the user side is demonstrated. Examples for successful exercieses in downscaling seasonal mean precipitation and daily rainfall sequences are shown. (orig.)

  14. Climate change impacts on soil carbon storage in global croplands: 1901-2010

    Ren, W.; Tian, H.

    2015-12-01

    New global data finds 12% of earth's surface in cropland at present. Croplands will take on the responsibility to support approximate 60% increase in food production by 2050 as FAO estimates. In addition to nutrient supply to plants, cropland soils also play a major source and sink of greenhouse gases regulating global climate system. It is a big challenge to understand how soils function under global changes, but it is also a great opportunity for agricultural sector to manage soils to assure sustainability of agroecosystems and mitigate climate change. Previous studies have attempted to investigate the impacts of different land uses and climates on cropland soil carbon storage. However, large uncertainty still exists in magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of global cropland soil organic carbon, due to the lack of reliable environmental databases and relatively poorly understanding of multiple controlling factors involved climate change and land use etc. Here, we use a process-based agroecosystem model (DLEM-Ag) in combination with diverse data sources to quantify magnitude and tempo-spatial patterns of soil carbon storage in global croplands during 1901-2010. We also analyze the relative contributions of major environmental variables (climate change, land use and management etc.). Our results indicate that intensive land use management may hidden the vulnerability of cropland soils to climate change in some regions, which may greatly weaken soil carbon sequestration under future climate change.

  15. Human and climate impacts on global water resources

    Wada, Y.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/341387819

    2013-01-01

    Over past decades, terrestrial water fluxes have been affected by humans at an unprecedented scale and the fingerprints that humans have left on Earth’s water resources are turning up in a diverse range of records. In this thesis, a state-of-the-art global hydrological model (GHM) and global water

  16. Assessing the impact on global climate from general anesthetic gases

    Andersen, Mads P. Sulbæk; Nielsen, Ole John; Wallington, Timothy J.

    2012-01-01

    anthropogenic radiative forcing of climate, as measured relative to the start of the industrial era (approximately 1750). The family of anesthetic gases includes several halogenated organic compounds that are strong greenhouse gases. In this short report, we provide an overview of the state of knowledge...

  17. Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming

    Williams, I N; Torn, M S; Riley, W J; Wehner, M F

    2014-01-01

    The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at the warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections

  18. Impact of climate forcing uncertainty and human water use on global and continental water balance components

    H. Müller Schmied

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of water balance components using global hydrological models is subject to climate forcing uncertainty as well as to an increasing intensity of human water use within the 20th century. The uncertainty of five state-of-the-art climate forcings and the resulting range of cell runoff that is simulated by the global hydrological model WaterGAP is presented. On the global land surface, about 62 % of precipitation evapotranspires, whereas 38 % discharges into oceans and inland sinks. During 1971–2000, evapotranspiration due to human water use amounted to almost 1 % of precipitation, while this anthropogenic water flow increased by a factor of approximately 5 between 1901 and 2010. Deviation of estimated global discharge from the ensemble mean due to climate forcing uncertainty is approximately 4 %. Precipitation uncertainty is the most important reason for the uncertainty of discharge and evapotranspiration, followed by shortwave downward radiation. At continental levels, deviations of water balance components due to uncertain climate forcing are higher, with the highest discharge deviations occurring for river discharge in Africa (−6 to 11 % from the ensemble mean. Uncertain climate forcings also affect the estimation of irrigation water use and thus the estimated human impact of river discharge. The uncertainty range of global irrigation water consumption amounts to approximately 50 % of the global sum of water consumption in the other water use sector.

  19. The Increase of Exotic Zoonotic Helminth Infections: The Impact of Urbanization, Climate Change and Globalization.

    Gordon, Catherine A; McManus, Donald P; Jones, Malcolm K; Gray, Darren J; Gobert, Geoffrey N

    2016-01-01

    Zoonotic parasitic diseases are increasingly impacting human populations due to the effects of globalization, urbanization and climate change. Here we review the recent literature on the most important helminth zoonoses, including reports of incidence and prevalence. We discuss those helminth diseases which are increasing in endemic areas and consider their geographical spread into new regions within the framework of globalization, urbanization and climate change to determine the effect these variables are having on disease incidence, transmission and the associated challenges presented for public health initiatives, including control and elimination. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Impact of global climate change on regional air quality: Introduction to the thematic issue

    Vautard, R.; Hauglustaine, D.

    2007-01-01

    Despite the major international efforts devoted to the understanding and to the future estimate of global climate change and its impact on regional scale processes, the evolution of the atmospheric composition in a changing climate is far to be understood. In particular, the future evolution of the concentration of near-surface pollutants determining air quality at a scale affecting human health and ecosystems is a subject of intense scientific research. This thematic issue reviews the current scientific knowledge of the consequences of global climate change on regional air quality and its related impact on the biosphere and on human mortality. This article provides a presentation of the key issues, summarizes the current knowledge, and introduces the thematic issue. (authors)

  1. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Overview of Sectors

    Wuebbles, D.

    2009-12-01

    The assessment of the Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States includes analyses of the potential climate change impacts by sector, including water resources, energy supply and use, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, human health and society. The resulting findings for the climate change impacts on these sectors are discussed in this presentation, with the effects on water resources discussed separately. Major findings include: Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. These impacts are different from region to region and will grow under projected climate change. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. Agriculture is considered one of the sectors most adaptable to changes in climate. However, increased heat, pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crop and livestock production. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge. Sea-level rise and storm surge place many U.S. coastal areas at increasing risk. Energy and transportation infrastructure and other property in coastal areas are very likely to be adversely affected. Threats to human health will increase. Health impacts of climate change are related to heat stress, waterborne diseases, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects and rodents. Robust public health infrastructure can reduce the potential for negative impacts. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses. Climate change will combine with pollution, population growth, overuse of resources, urbanization, and other social, economic, and environmental stresses to create larger impacts than from any of these factors alone. Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems. There are a variety of thresholds in

  2. Global Climate Change Impacts in the Sinaloa State, México

    Luis Miguel Flores Campaña

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The variation of environmental conditions deriving from global climate change in the state of Sinaloa and its impact on the region's main productive activities have not been sufficiently studied. The article describes various phenomena associated with climate change and its consequences for Sinaloa, analyzes the scarce climate scenarios that include the region, and discusses the modifications caused by tropical cyclones and interannual changes. It also discusses the repercussions of climate change on agricultural activity and aspects related to sea level rise. Finally, the text empathizes on the lack of local estimations and studies that could serve as base for improved planning strategies and initiatives to facilitate adaptation to climate change in the region.

  3. Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming

    Lobell, David B; Field, Christopher B

    2007-01-01

    Changes in the global production of major crops are important drivers of food prices, food security and land use decisions. Average global yields for these commodities are determined by the performance of crops in millions of fields distributed across a range of management, soil and climate regimes. Despite the complexity of global food supply, here we show that simple measures of growing season temperatures and precipitation-spatial averages based on the locations of each crop-explain ∼30% or more of year-to-year variations in global average yields for the world's six most widely grown crops. For wheat, maize and barley, there is a clearly negative response of global yields to increased temperatures. Based on these sensitivities and observed climate trends, we estimate that warming since 1981 has resulted in annual combined losses of these three crops representing roughly 40 Mt or $5 billion per year, as of 2002. While these impacts are small relative to the technological yield gains over the same period, the results demonstrate already occurring negative impacts of climate trends on crop yields at the global scale

  4. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change : From global mean temperature change to climate extremes and high impact weather.

    CERN. Geneva

    2013-01-01

    This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...

  5. Implications of regional improvement in global climate models for agricultural impact research

    Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Thornton, Philip K; Jarvis, Andy; Challinor, Andrew J

    2013-01-01

    Global climate models (GCMs) have become increasingly important for climate change science and provide the basis for most impact studies. Since impact models are highly sensitive to input climate data, GCM skill is crucial for getting better short-, medium- and long-term outlooks for agricultural production and food security. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 ensemble is likely to underpin the majority of climate impact assessments over the next few years. We assess 24 CMIP3 and 26 CMIP5 simulations of present climate against climate observations for five tropical regions, as well as regional improvements in model skill and, through literature review, the sensitivities of impact estimates to model error. Climatological means of seasonal mean temperatures depict mean errors between 1 and 18 ° C (2–130% with respect to mean), whereas seasonal precipitation and wet-day frequency depict larger errors, often offsetting observed means and variability beyond 100%. Simulated interannual climate variability in GCMs warrants particular attention, given that no single GCM matches observations in more than 30% of the areas for monthly precipitation and wet-day frequency, 50% for diurnal range and 70% for mean temperatures. We report improvements in mean climate skill of 5–15% for climatological mean temperatures, 3–5% for diurnal range and 1–2% in precipitation. At these improvement rates, we estimate that at least 5–30 years of CMIP work is required to improve regional temperature simulations and at least 30–50 years for precipitation simulations, for these to be directly input into impact models. We conclude with some recommendations for the use of CMIP5 in agricultural impact studies. (letter)

  6. Integrated regional assessment of global climatic change. Lessons from the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS)

    Cohen, Stewart J.

    1996-01-01

    This paper outlines the potential role integrated regional assessments of global climatic change scenarios could play in building better links between science and related policy concerns. The concept is illustrated through description of an ongoing case study from Canada-the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS). As part of the Government of Canada's Green Plan, the Global Warming Science Program includes a study of regional impacts of global warming scenarios in the Mackenzie Basin, located in northwestern Canada. The MBIS is a six-year program focussing on potential climate-induced changes in the land and water resource base, and the implications of four scenarios of global climatic change on land use and economic policies in this region. These policy issues include interjurisdictional water management, sustainability of native lifestyles, economic development opportunities (agriculture, forestry, tourism, etc.), sustainability of ecosystems and infrastructure maintenance. MBIS is due to be completed in 1997. MBIS represents an attempt to address regional impacts by incorporating a 'family of integrators' into the study framework, and by directly involving stakeholders in planning and research activities. The experience in organizing and carrying out this project may provide some lessons for others interested in organizing regional or country studies

  7. Modeling the impact of large-scale energy conversion systems on global climate

    Williams, J.

    There are three energy options which could satisfy a projected energy requirement of about 30 TW and these are the solar, nuclear and (to a lesser extent) coal options. Climate models can be used to assess the impact of large scale deployment of these options. The impact of waste heat has been assessed using energy balance models and general circulation models (GCMs). Results suggest that the impacts are significant when the heat imput is very high and studies of more realistic scenarios are required. Energy balance models, radiative-convective models and a GCM have been used to study the impact of doubling the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. State-of-the-art models estimate a surface temperature increase of 1.5-3.0 0 C with large amplification near the poles, but much uncertainty remains. Very few model studies have been made of the impact of particles on global climate, more information on the characteristics of particle input are required. The impact of large-scale deployment of solar energy conversion systems has received little attention but model studies suggest that large scale changes in surface characteristics associated with such systems (surface heat balance, roughness and hydrological characteristics and ocean surface temperature) could have significant global climatic effects. (Auth.)

  8. From global framing to local action : translation of climate change impacts in Africa

    Ogunseitan, O.A. [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2000-06-01

    There is considerable controversy regarding policy and climate change mitigation in Africa. Its resolution will require integrating local knowledge and values into climate impact assessments. Africa's vulnerability to climate change can be traced to the frequency of socio-ecological devastation that comes from major climate variations on the continent. The incidence of famines, homelessness and disease epidemics that require international assistance are reflections of weak policies and institution action frames used to cope with climate and weather related emergencies. However, the valuation of climate change impacts has a subjective dimension that can be gained only through indigenous experience and an understanding of values associated with life-saving intervention programs. A recent study showed that discount rates applied to future life-saving programs by Africans are very different from the rates applied in developed countries, and that the difference should be reflected in national development programs and transnational initiatives for capacity building. The study suggests that if the boundary institutions responsible for public health security have not been too effective in resolving the policy controversy surrounding Africa's participation in climate change assessments, it is due partly to the limitations imposed by cross-scale issues in framing. It was concluded that efforts to reduce Africa's dependence on global emergency health response systems will necessitate the development of autonomous capacity to adapt to natural disasters. Appropriate frame reflection is needed at the local level. 56 refs., 3 tabs., 1 fig.

  9. Global health impacts due to infectious diseases and climate change: A narrative review

    Sameera Karnik

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the World Health Organization (WHO, environment is explained in terms of human health, such as physical, chemical and biological factors that are external to a person and all the related behavioral changes that affect population health. Quality of life and health is generally affected by people’s interaction with the environment.The purpose of this narrative review was to address various global health impacts such as heat wave impact, impact of floods and droughts, impact of allergens and impact of air pollution. A major emphasis of this review was on climatic impact on a variety of infectious diseases, particularly the interplay between ‘global warming’ and its effects on transmission of infectious diseases across the world. An analysis of vector borne disease transmission, infectious disease transmission modeling, in the backdrop of global warming, the concept of ‘one health’ and the effects of rising sea levels, which are purported to be due to global warming, were some of the highlighted issues addressed in this review. Towards the end, attention was drawn towards the limitations of addressing vector disease transmission related insufficient studies particularly studies which conduct predictive modeling of infectious disease transmission, which were marred by lack of innovation.

  10. Global health impacts due to infectious diseases and climate change: A narrative review

    Sameera Karnik

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available According to the World Health Organization (WHO, environment is explained in terms of human health, such as physical, chemical and biological factors that are external to a person and all the related behavioral changes that affect population health. Quality of life and health is generally affected by people’s interaction with the environment.The purpose of this narrative review was to address various global health impacts such as heat wave impact, impact of floods and droughts, impact of allergens and impact of air pollution. A major emphasis of this review was on climatic impact on a variety of infectious diseases, particularly the interplay between ‘global warming’ and its effects on transmission of infectious diseases across the world. An analysis of vector borne disease transmission, infectious disease transmission modeling, in the backdrop of global warming, the concept of ‘one health’ and the effects of rising sea levels, which are purported to be due to global warming, were some of the highlighted issues addressed in this review. Towards the end, attention was drawn towards the limitations of addressing vector disease transmission related insufficient studies particularly studies which conduct predictive modeling of infectious disease transmission, which were marred by lack of innovation.

  11. Estimating uncertainty and its temporal variation related to global climate models in quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology

    Shen, Mingxi; Chen, Jie; Zhuan, Meijia; Chen, Hua; Xu, Chong-Yu; Xiong, Lihua

    2018-01-01

    Uncertainty estimation of climate change impacts on hydrology has received much attention in the research community. The choice of a global climate model (GCM) is usually considered as the largest contributor to the uncertainty of climate change impacts. The temporal variation of GCM uncertainty needs to be investigated for making long-term decisions to deal with climate change. Accordingly, this study investigated the temporal variation (mainly long-term) of uncertainty related to the choice of a GCM in predicting climate change impacts on hydrology by using multi-GCMs over multiple continuous future periods. Specifically, twenty CMIP5 GCMs under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were adapted to adequately represent this uncertainty envelope, fifty-one 30-year future periods moving from 2021 to 2100 with 1-year interval were produced to express the temporal variation. Future climatic and hydrological regimes over all future periods were compared to those in the reference period (1971-2000) using a set of metrics, including mean and extremes. The periodicity of climatic and hydrological changes and their uncertainty were analyzed using wavelet analysis, while the trend was analyzed using Mann-Kendall trend test and regression analysis. The results showed that both future climate change (precipitation and temperature) and hydrological response predicted by the twenty GCMs were highly uncertain, and the uncertainty increased significantly over time. For example, the change of mean annual precipitation increased from 1.4% in 2021-2050 to 6.5% in 2071-2100 for RCP4.5 in terms of the median value of multi-models, but the projected uncertainty reached 21.7% in 2021-2050 and 25.1% in 2071-2100 for RCP4.5. The uncertainty under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5) was much larger than that under a relatively low emission scenario (RCP4.5). Almost all climatic and hydrological regimes and their uncertainty did not show significant periodicity at the P = .05 significance

  12. Regional and urban downscaling of global climate scenarios for health impact assessments

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J.L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R.M.; Pecci, J.; Garzon, A.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    In this contribution we have used global climate RCP IPCC scenarios to produce climate and air pollution maps at regional (25 km resolution) and urban scale with 200 m spatial resolution over Europe and five European cities in order to investigate the impact on meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations . We have used the very well known mesoscale meeorological model WRF-Chem (NOAA, US). We have used 2011 as control past year and two RCP scenarios from CCSM global climate model with 4.5 W/m2 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2030, 2050 and 2100 years. After running WRF-Chem model, using the boundary conditions provided by RCP scenarios with the emissions of 2011, we have performed a detailed downscaling process using CALMET diagnostic model to obtain a full 200 m spatial resolution map of five European cities (London, Antwerp, Madrid, Milan, and Helsinki). We will show the results and the health impacts for future RCP IPCC climate scenarios in comparison with the 2011 control year information for climate and health indicators. Finnally, we have also investigated the impact of the aerosol effects in the short wave radiation mean value. Two simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed over Europe in 2010. A baseline simulation without any feedback effects and a second simulation including the direct effects affecting the solar radiation reaching the surface as well as the indirect aerosol effect with potential impacts on increasing or decreasing the precipitation rates. Aerosol effects produce an increase of incoming radiation over Atlantic Ocean (up to 70%) because the prescribed aerosol concentrations in the WRF-Chem without feedbacks is substantially higher than the aerosol concentrations produced when we activate the feedback effects. The decrease in solar radiation in the Sahara area (10%) is found to be produced because the prescribed aerosol concentration in the {sup n}o feedback{sup s}imulation is lower than when we activate the feedback effects. (Author)

  13. Regional and urban down scaling of global climate scenarios for health impact assessments

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Garzon, A.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    In this contribution we have used global climate RCP IPCC scenarios to produce climate and air pollution maps at regional (25 km resolution) and urban scale with 200 m spatial resolution over Europe and five European cities in order to investigate the impact on meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations . We have used the very well known mesoscale meteorological model WRF-Chem (NOAA, US). We have used 2011 as control past year and two RCP scenarios from CCSM global climate model with 4.5 W/m2 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2030, 2050 and 2100 years. After running WRF-Chem model, using the boundary conditions provided by RCP scenarios with the emissions of 2011, we have performed a detailed down scaling process using CALMET diagnostic model to obtain a full 200 m spatial resolution map of five European cities (London, Antwerp, Madrid, Milan, and Helsinki). We will show the results and the health impacts for future RCP IPCC climate scenarios in comparison with the 2011 control year information for climate and health indicators. Finally, we have also investigated the impact of the aerosol effects in the short wave radiation mean value. Two simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed over Europe in 2010. A baseline simulation without any feedback effects and a second simulation including the direct effects affecting the solar radiation reaching the surface as well as the indirect aerosol effect with potential impacts on increasing or decreasing the precipitation rates. Aerosol effects produce an increase of incoming radiation over Atlantic Ocean (up to 70%) because the prescribed aerosol concentrations in the WRF-Chem without feedbacks is substantially higher than the aerosol concentrations produced when we activate the feedback effects. The decrease in solar radiation in the Sahara area (10%) is found to be produced because the prescribed aerosol concentration in the no feedback simulation is lower than when we activate the feedback effects. (Author)

  14. Global climate impacts of country-level primary carbonaceous aerosol from solid-fuel cookstove emissions

    Lacey, Forrest; Henze, Daven

    2015-01-01

    Cookstove use is globally one of the largest unregulated anthropogenic sources of primary carbonaceous aerosol. While reducing cookstove emissions through national-scale mitigation efforts has clear benefits for improving indoor and ambient air quality, and significant climate benefits from reduced green-house gas emissions, climate impacts associated with reductions to co-emitted black (BC) and organic carbonaceous aerosol are not well characterized. Here we attribute direct, indirect, semi-direct, and snow/ice albedo radiative forcing (RF) and associated global surface temperature changes to national-scale carbonaceous aerosol cookstove emissions. These results are made possible through the use of adjoint sensitivity modeling to relate direct RF and BC deposition to emissions. Semi- and indirect effects are included via global scaling factors, and bounds on these estimates are drawn from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. Absolute regional temperature potentials are used to estimate global surface temperature changes. Bounds are placed on these estimates, drawing from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. We estimate a range of 0.16 K warming to 0.28 K cooling with a central estimate of 0.06 K cooling from the removal of cookstove aerosol emissions. At the national emissions scale, countries’ impacts on global climate range from net warming (e.g., Mexico and Brazil) to net cooling, although the range of estimated impacts for all countries span zero given uncertainties in RF estimates and fuel characterization. We identify similarities and differences in the sets of countries with the highest emissions and largest cookstove temperature impacts (China, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal), those with the largest temperature impact per carbon emitted (Kazakhstan, Estonia, and Mongolia), and those that would provide the

  15. Global climate impacts of country-level primary carbonaceous aerosol from solid-fuel cookstove emissions

    Lacey, Forrest; Henze, Daven

    2015-11-01

    Cookstove use is globally one of the largest unregulated anthropogenic sources of primary carbonaceous aerosol. While reducing cookstove emissions through national-scale mitigation efforts has clear benefits for improving indoor and ambient air quality, and significant climate benefits from reduced green-house gas emissions, climate impacts associated with reductions to co-emitted black (BC) and organic carbonaceous aerosol are not well characterized. Here we attribute direct, indirect, semi-direct, and snow/ice albedo radiative forcing (RF) and associated global surface temperature changes to national-scale carbonaceous aerosol cookstove emissions. These results are made possible through the use of adjoint sensitivity modeling to relate direct RF and BC deposition to emissions. Semi- and indirect effects are included via global scaling factors, and bounds on these estimates are drawn from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. Absolute regional temperature potentials are used to estimate global surface temperature changes. Bounds are placed on these estimates, drawing from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. We estimate a range of 0.16 K warming to 0.28 K cooling with a central estimate of 0.06 K cooling from the removal of cookstove aerosol emissions. At the national emissions scale, countries’ impacts on global climate range from net warming (e.g., Mexico and Brazil) to net cooling, although the range of estimated impacts for all countries span zero given uncertainties in RF estimates and fuel characterization. We identify similarities and differences in the sets of countries with the highest emissions and largest cookstove temperature impacts (China, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal), those with the largest temperature impact per carbon emitted (Kazakhstan, Estonia, and Mongolia), and those that would provide the

  16. Impact of a global warming on biospheric sources of methane and its climatic consequences

    Hameed, S; Cess, R D

    1983-01-01

    Most atmospheric methane originates by bacterial processes in anaerobic environments within the soil, which become more productive with increases in ambient temperature. A warming of the climate, due to increasing levels of industrial gases resulting from fossil fuel burning, is likely to increase methane concentrations within the atmosphere, possibly leading to further heating, since both methane and ozone (which is generated in the troposphere from reactions of methane) have greenhouse effects. Investigators explored this feedback mechanism using a coupled climate-chemical model of the troposphere, by calculating the impact of the predicted global warming due to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other industrial gases on the biospheric sources of methane. Although they found this climate feedback to be, by itself, relatively minor, it can produce measurable increases in atmospheric CH/sub 4/ concentration, a quantity that should additionally increase as a consequence of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO and CH/sub 4/.

  17. Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century.

    Estrada, Francisco; Tol, Richard S J; Botzen, Wouter J W

    2017-01-01

    Estimates of the global economic impacts of observed climate change during the 20th century obtained by applying five impact functions of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) are separated into their main natural and anthropogenic components. The estimates of the costs that can be attributed to natural variability factors and to the anthropogenic intervention with the climate system in general tend to show that: 1) during the first half of the century, the amplitude of the impacts associated with natural variability is considerably larger than that produced by anthropogenic factors and the effects of natural variability fluctuated between being negative and positive. These non-monotonic impacts are mostly determined by the low-frequency variability and the persistence of the climate system; 2) IAMs do not agree on the sign (nor on the magnitude) of the impacts of anthropogenic forcing but indicate that they steadily grew over the first part of the century, rapidly accelerated since the mid 1970's, and decelerated during the first decade of the 21st century. This deceleration is accentuated by the existence of interaction effects between natural variability and natural and anthropogenic forcing. The economic impacts of anthropogenic forcing range in the tenths of percentage of the world GDP by the end of the 20th century; 3) the impacts of natural forcing are about one order of magnitude lower than those associated with anthropogenic forcing and are dominated by the solar forcing; 4) the interaction effects between natural and anthropogenic factors can importantly modulate how impacts actually occur, at least for moderate increases in external forcing. Human activities became dominant drivers of the estimated economic impacts at the end of the 20th century, producing larger impacts than those of low-frequency natural variability. Some of the uses and limitations of IAMs are discussed.

  18. An alternative to the global warming potential for comparing climate impacts of emissions of greenhouse gases

    Shine, Keith P.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Stuber, Nicola

    2003-01-01

    The global warming potential (GWP) is used within the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a metric for weighting the climate impact of emissions of different greenhouse gases. The GQP has been subject at many criticism because of its formulation but nevertheless it has retained some favour because of the simplicity of this design and application and its transparency compared to proposed alternatives. Here a new metric which we call the Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP) is proposed which is based on a simple analytical climate model that represents the temperature change as a given time due to either a pulse emission of a gas or a sustained emission change relative to a similar emission change of carbon dioxide. The GTP for a pulse emission illustrates that the GWP does not represent well the relative temperature response; however, the GWP is shown to be very close to the GTP for a sustained emission change for time horizons of 100 years or more. The new metric retains the advantage of the GWP in terms of transparency and the relatively small number of input parameters required for calculation. However, it has an enhanced relevance as it is further down the cause-effect chain of the impacts of greenhouse gases emissions. The GTP for a sustained emission appears to be robust to a number of uncertainties and simplifications in its derivation and may be an attractive alternative to the GWP. (Author)

  19. Trade Liberalization and Climate Change: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impacts on Global Agriculture

    Katrin Rehdanz

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the A1B and A2 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture, and its interactions with trade liberalization, as proposed for the Doha Development Round. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Significant reductions in agricultural tariffs lead to modest changes in regional water use. Patterns are non-linear. On the regional level, water use may go up for partial liberalization, and down for more complete liberalization. This is because different crops respond differently to tariff reductions, and because trade and competition matter too. Moreover, trade liberalization tends to reduce water use in water scarce regions, and increase water use in water abundant regions, even though water markets do not exist in most countries. Considering impacts of climate change, the results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall over time while food prices increase. Larger changes are observed under the SRES A2 scenario for the medium term (2020 and under the SRES A1B scenario for the long term (2050. Combining scenarios of future climate change with trade liberalization, countries are affected differently. However, the overall effect on welfare does not change much.

  20. Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Invasion Potential of the African Clawed Frog Xenopus laevis.

    Ihlow, Flora; Courant, Julien; Secondi, Jean; Herrel, Anthony; Rebelo, Rui; Measey, G John; Lillo, Francesco; De Villiers, F André; Vogt, Solveig; De Busschere, Charlotte; Backeljau, Thierry; Rödder, Dennis

    2016-01-01

    By altering or eliminating delicate ecological relationships, non-indigenous species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, as well as a driver of environmental change. Global climate change affects ecosystems and ecological communities, leading to changes in the phenology, geographic ranges, or population abundance of several species. Thus, predicting the impacts of global climate change on the current and future distribution of invasive species is an important subject in macroecological studies. The African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), native to South Africa, possesses a strong invasion potential and populations have become established in numerous countries across four continents. The global invasion potential of X. laevis was assessed using correlative species distribution models (SDMs). SDMs were computed based on a comprehensive set of occurrence records covering South Africa, North America, South America and Europe and a set of nine environmental predictors. Models were built using both a maximum entropy model and an ensemble approach integrating eight algorithms. The future occurrence probabilities for X. laevis were subsequently computed using bioclimatic variables for 2070 following four different IPCC scenarios. Despite minor differences between the statistical approaches, both SDMs predict the future potential distribution of X. laevis, on a global scale, to decrease across all climate change scenarios. On a continental scale, both SDMs predict decreasing potential distributions in the species' native range in South Africa, as well as in the invaded areas in North and South America, and in Australia where the species has not been introduced. In contrast, both SDMs predict the potential range size to expand in Europe. Our results suggest that all probability classes will be equally affected by climate change. New regional conditions may promote new invasions or the spread of established invasive populations, especially in France and Great Britain.

  1. Public health impact of global heating due to climate change: potential effects on chronic non-communicable diseases.

    Kjellstrom, Tord; Butler, Ainslie J; Lucas, Robyn M; Bonita, Ruth

    2010-04-01

    Several categories of ill health important at the global level are likely to be affected by climate change. To date the focus of this association has been on communicable diseases and injuries. This paper briefly analyzes potential impacts of global climate change on chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We reviewed the limited available evidence of the relationships between climate exposure and chronic and NCDs. We further reviewed likely mechanisms and pathways for climatic influences on chronic disease occurrence and impacts on pre-existing chronic diseases. There are negative impacts of climatic factors and climate change on some physiological functions and on cardio-vascular and kidney diseases. Chronic disease risks are likely to increase with climate change and related increase in air pollution, malnutrition, and extreme weather events. There are substantial research gaps in this arena. The health sector has a major role in facilitating further research and monitoring the health impacts of global climate change. Such work will also contribute to global efforts for the prevention and control of chronic NCDs in our ageing and urbanizing global population.

  2. Impact of a global warming on biospheric sources of methane and its climatic consequences

    Hameed, S.; Cess, R. D.

    1980-01-01

    Most of atmospheric methane originates by bacterial processes in anaerobic environments within the soil which are found to become more productive with increases in ambient temperature. A warming of climate, due to increasing levels of industrial gases resulting from fossil fuel burning, is thus likely to increase methane abundance within the atmosphere. This may lead to further heating of the atmosphere, since both methane and ozone (which is generated in the troposphere from reactions of methane) have greenhouse effects. This feedback mechanism has been explored with the use of a coupled climate-chemical model of the troposphere, by the calculation of the impact of the predicted global warming due to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other industrial gases on the biospheric sources of methane.

  3. Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

    Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Flörke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.; Yang, T.; Müller, C.; Leng, G.; Tang, Q.; Portmann, F. T.; Hagemann, S.; Gerten, D.; Wada, Y.; Masaki, Y.; Alemayehu, T.; Satoh, Y.; Samaniego, L.

    2017-01-04

    Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity of impact models designed for either scale to climate variability and change is comparable. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a much better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases with distinct differences in others, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability, but whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models validated against observed discharge should be used.

  4. Global forest sector modeling: application to some impacts of climate change

    Joseph. Buongiorno

    2016-01-01

    This paper explored the potential long-term effects of a warming climate on the global wood sector, based on Way and Oren's synthesis (Tree Physiology 30,669-688) indicating positive responses of tree growth to higher temperature in boreal and temperative climates, and negative responses in the topics. Changes in forest productivity were introduced in the Global...

  5. Climate Impacts in Europe Under +1.5°C Global Warming

    Jacob, Daniela; Kotova, Lola; Teichmann, Claas; Sobolowski, Stefan P.; Vautard, Robert; Donnelly, Chantal; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Grillakis, Manolis G.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Damm, Andrea; Sakalli, Abdulla; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.

    2018-02-01

    The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change aims not only at avoiding +2°C warming (and even limit the temperature increase further to +1.5°C), but also sets long-term goals to guide mitigation. Therefore, the best available science is required to inform policymakers on the importance of and the adaptation needs in a +1.5°C warmer world. Seven research institutes from Europe and Turkey integrated their competencies to provide a cross-sectoral assessment of the potential impacts at a pan-European scale. The initial findings of this initiative are presented and key messages communicated. The approach is to select periods based on global warming thresholds rather than the more typical approach of selecting time periods (e.g., end of century). The results indicate that the world is likely to pass the +1.5°C threshold in the coming decades. Cross-sectoral dimensions are taken into account to show the impacts of global warming that occur in parallel in more than one sector. Also, impacts differ across sectors and regions. Alongside the negative impacts for certain sectors and regions, some positive impacts are projected. Summer tourism in parts of Western Europe may be favored by climate change; electricity demand decreases outweigh increases over most of Europe and catchment yields in hydropower regions will increase. However, such positive findings should be interpreted carefully as we do not take into account exogenous factors that can and will influence Europe such as migration patterns, food production, and economic and political instability.

  6. Global Climate Change (GCC) Issues and Their Impacts on the US Army Corps of Engineers

    1991-11-01

    Figure 24: The Great Plains scenario POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR FUTURE CLIMATE 70 Agriculture Clmate change could: *decreae. corn and soybean yields In...AD-A247 279 ____________ GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE us A (GCC) ISSUES AND THEIRoUS ;T AryL ors IM PACTS ON THE US ARMY Topographic Engineering CenerCORPS...blank) 12. AEPGAT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED 1 29 Nov 91 SPECIAL REPORT 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE ,. FUNDING NUMBERS Global Climate Change (GCC

  7. Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-01-01

    While climate-change models have done a reasonable job of forecasting changes in global climate conditions over the past decades, recent data indicate that actual climate change may be much more severe. To better understand some of the potential economic impacts of these severe climate changes, Sandia economists estimated the impacts to the U.S. economy of climate change-induced impacts to U.S. precipitation over the 2010 to 2050 time period. The economists developed an impact methodology that converts changes in precipitation and water availability to changes in economic activity, and conducted simulations of economic impacts using a large-scale macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy.

  8. Global climate change

    Levine, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Present processes of global climate change are reviewed. The processes determining global temperature are briefly described and the concept of effective temperature is elucidated. The greenhouse effect is examined, including the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. 18 refs

  9. Alternatives to the Global Warming Potential for Comparing Climate Impacts of Emissions of Greenhouse Gases

    Shine, Keith P.; Fuglestvedt, J.S.; Hailemariam, K.; Stuber, N.

    2005-01-01

    The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is used within the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a metric for weighting the climatic impact of emissions of different greenhouse gases. The GWP has been subjected to many criticisms because of its formulation, but nevertheless it has retained some favour because of the simplicity of its design and application, and its transparency compared to proposed alternatives. Here, two new metrics are proposed, which are based on a simple analytical climate model. The first metric is called the Global Temperature Change Potential and represents the temperature change at a given time due to a pulse emission of a gas (GTPP); the second is similar but represents the effect of a sustained emission change (hence GTPS). Both GTPP and GTPS are presented as relative to the temperature change due to a similar emission change of a reference gas, here taken to be carbon dioxide. Both metrics are compared against an upwelling-diffusion energy balance model that resolves land and ocean and the hemispheres. The GTPP does not perform well, compared to the energy balance model, except for long-lived gases. By contrast, the GTPS is shown to perform well relative to the energy balance model, for gases with a wide variety of lifetimes. It is also shown that for time horizons in excess of about 100 years, the GTPS and GWP produce very similar results, indicating an alternative interpretation for the GWP. The GTPS retains the advantage of the GWP in terms of transparency, and the relatively small number of input parameters required for calculation. However, it has an enhanced relevance, as it is further down the cause-effect chain of the impacts of greenhouse gases emissions and has an unambiguous interpretation. It appears to be robust to key uncertainties and simplifications in its derivation and may be an attractive alternative to the GWP

  10. Potential impact of global climate change on benthic deep-sea microbes.

    Danovaro, Roberto; Corinaldesi, Cinzia; Dell'Anno, Antonio; Rastelli, Eugenio

    2017-12-15

    Benthic deep-sea environments are the largest ecosystem on Earth, covering ∼65% of the Earth surface. Microbes inhabiting this huge biome at all water depths represent the most abundant biological components and a relevant portion of the biomass of the biosphere, and play a crucial role in global biogeochemical cycles. Increasing evidence suggests that global climate changes are affecting also deep-sea ecosystems, both directly (causing shifts in bottom-water temperature, oxygen concentration and pH) and indirectly (through changes in surface oceans' productivity and in the consequent export of organic matter to the seafloor). However, the responses of the benthic deep-sea biota to such shifts remain largely unknown. This applies particularly to deep-sea microbes, which include bacteria, archaea, microeukaryotes and their viruses. Understanding the potential impacts of global change on the benthic deep-sea microbial assemblages and the consequences on the functioning of the ocean interior is a priority to better forecast the potential consequences at global scale. Here we explore the potential changes in the benthic deep-sea microbiology expected in the coming decades using case studies on specific systems used as test models. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Impact of a global warming on biospheric sources of methane and its climatic consequences

    Hameed, S; Cess, R D [State Univ. of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, NY (USA). Lab. for Planetary Atmospheres Research

    1983-01-01

    Most of atmospheric methane originates by bacterial processes in anaerobic environments within the soil which are found to become more productive with increases in ambient temperature. A warming of climate, due to increasing levels of industrial gases resulting from fossil fuel burning, is thus likely to increase methane abundance within the atmosphere. This may lead to further heating of the atmosphere, since both methane and ozone (which is generated in the troposphere from reactions of methane) have greenhouse effects. We have explored this feedback mechanism using a coupled climate-chemical model of the troposphere, by calculating the impact of the predicted global warming due to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other industrial gases on the biospheric sources of methane. Although we find this climate feedback to be, by itself, relatively minor, it can produce measurable increases in atmospheric CH/sub 4/ concentration, a quantity which should additionally increase as a consequence of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO and CH/sub 4/ itself. It would thus seem useful to carefully monitor future atmospheric CH/sub 4/ concentrations.

  12. Impact of a global warming on biospheric sources of methane and its climatic consequences

    Hameed, S; Cess, R D

    1983-02-01

    Most of atmospheric methane originates by bacterial processes in anaerobic environments within the soil which are found to become more productive with increases in ambient temperature. A warming of climate, due to increasing levels of industrial gases resulting from fossil fuel burning, is thus likely to increase methane abundance within the atmosphere. This may lead to further heating of the atmosphere, since both methane and ozone (which is generated in the troposphere from reactions of methane) have greenhouse effects. We have explored this feedback mechanism using a coupled climate-chemical model of the troposphere, by calculating the impact of the predicted global warming due to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other industrial gases on the biospheric sources of methane. Although we find this climate feedback to be, by itself, relatively minor, it can produce measurable increases in atmospheric CH/sub 4/ concentration, a quantity which should additionally increase as a consequence of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO and CH/sub 4/ itself. It would thus seem useful to carefully monitor future atmospheric CH/sub 4/ concentrations.

  13. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2017-04-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

  14. Climate and Global Change

    Duplessy, J.C.; Pons, A.; Fantechi, R.

    1991-01-01

    The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)

  15. Using isotopes to improve impact and hydrological predictions of land-surface schemes in global climate models

    McGuffie, K.; Henderson-Sellers, A.

    2002-01-01

    Global climate model (GCM) predictions of the impact of large-scale land-use change date back to 1984 as do the earliest isotopic studies of large-basin hydrology. Despite this coincidence in interest and geography, with both papers focussed on the Amazon, there have been few studies that have tried to exploit isotopic information with the goal of improving climate model simulations of the land-surface. In this paper we analyze isotopic results from the IAEA global data base specifically with the goal of identifying signatures of potential value for improving global and regional climate model simulations of the land-surface. Evaluation of climate model predictions of the impacts of deforestation of the Amazon has been shown to be of significance by recent results which indicate impacts occurring distant from the Amazon i.e. tele-connections causing climate change elsewhere around the globe. It is suggested that these could be similar in magnitude and extent to the global impacts of ENSO events. Validation of GCM predictions associated with Amazonian deforestation are increasingly urgently required because of the additional effects of other aspects of climate change, particularly synergies occurring between forest removal and greenhouse gas increases, especially CO 2 . Here we examine three decades distributions of deuterium excess across the Amazon and use the results to evaluate the relative importance of the fractionating (partial evaporation) and non-fractionating (transpiration) processes. These results illuminate GCM scenarios of importance to the regional climate and hydrology: (i) the possible impact of increased stomatal resistance in the rainforest caused by higher levels of atmospheric CO2 [4]; and (ii) the consequences of the combined effects of deforestation and global warming on the regions climate and hydrology

  16. Heat, Human Performance, and Occupational Health: A Key Issue for the Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts.

    Kjellstrom, Tord; Briggs, David; Freyberg, Chris; Lemke, Bruno; Otto, Matthias; Hyatt, Olivia

    2016-01-01

    Ambient heat exposure is a well-known health hazard, which reduces human performance and work capacity at heat levels already common in tropical and subtropical areas. Various health problems have been reported. Increasing heat exposure during the hottest seasons of each year is a key feature of global climate change. Heat exhaustion and reduced human performance are often overlooked in climate change health impact analysis. Later this century, many among the four billion people who live in hot areas worldwide will experience significantly reduced work capacity owing to climate change. In some areas, 30-40% of annual daylight hours will become too hot for work to be carried out. The social and economic impacts will be considerable, with global gross domestic product (GDP) losses greater than 20% by 2100. The analysis to date is piecemeal. More analysis of climate change-related occupational health impact assessments is greatly needed.

  17. Creating Impact Functions to Estimate the Domestic Effects of Global Climate Action

    Quantifying and monetizing the impacts of climate change can be challenging due to the complexity of impacts, availability of data, variability across geographic and temporal time scales, sources of uncertainty, and computational constraints. Recent advancements in using consist...

  18. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Kucharski, Fred; Azharuddin, Syed

    2017-01-01

    ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant

  19. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar

    2017-03-09

    ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant

  20. Evaluating the impact of climate change on landslide occurrence, hazard, and risk: from global to regional scale.

    Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2017-04-01

    According to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "warming of the climate system is unequivocal". The influence of climate changes on slope stability and landslides is also undisputable. Nevertheless, the quantitative evaluation of the impact of global warming, and the related changes in climate, on landslides remains a complex question to be solved. The evidence that climate and landslides act at only partially overlapping spatial and temporal scales complicates the evaluation. Different research fields, including e.g., climatology, physics, hydrology, geology, hydrogeology, geotechnics, soil science, environmental science, and social science, must be considered. Climatic, environmental, demographic, and economic changes are strictly correlated, with complex feedbacks, to landslide occurrence and variation. Thus, a holistic, multidisciplinary approach is necessary. We reviewed the literature on landslide-climate studies, and found a bias in their geographical distribution, with several studies centered in Europe and North America, and large parts of the world not investigated. We examined advantages and drawbacks of the approaches adopted to evaluate the effects of climate variations on landslides, including prospective modelling and retrospective methods that use landslide and climate records, and paleo-environmental information. We found that the results of landslide-climate studies depend more on the emission scenarios, the global circulation models, the regional climate models, and the methods to downscale the climate variables, than on the description of the variables controlling slope processes. Using ensembles of projections based on a range of emissions scenarios would reduce (or at least quantify) the uncertainties in the obtained results. We performed a preliminary global assessment of the future landslide impact, presenting a global distribution of the projected impact of climate change on landslide activity and abundance

  1. Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change

    Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change · Climate Change: Generic Implications for Agriculture · Controlled environment facilities at IARI used for evaluating model performance in future climate change scenarios · Slide 4 · Slide 5 · Global studies indicate considerable impact of climate change in tropics.

  2. IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON POVERTY AND WOMEN IN INDIA

    Durgadas Mukhopadhyay [Delhi University, Delhi (India)

    2008-09-30

    The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says the world can expect more heat waves and droughts, heavier rains, stronger storms and rising sea levels due to global warming caused by emissions of greenhouse gases. Africa, Latin America and parts of Asia- where the climate is already more extreme and arid regions are common-are likely to be most affected. Large numbers of people could be forced to find new homes as their living environments are submerged, or food and water become scarce. Up to 250 million people could be displaced by climate-related disasters by the middle of the century. Recent World Bank researcher has found that the impacts of a one-meter rise in sea level will be profound in the developing world, potentially turning 56 million people in 84 developing countries into environmental refugees. In Vietnam, an estimated 10.8 per cent of the nation's population will be displaced with onemeter sea level rise, with very high impacts in the Mekong and Red River deltas. Egypt's Nile Delta will be similarly affected with 10.5 per cent of the population at risk and 25 percent of the delta inundated. In South Asia, Bangladesh will have the largest share of land affected. A 2007 cross-country study in Latin America has found strong evidence that agriculture in the region will be vulnerable to the effects of higher temperatures, though these effects are likely to vary from place to place. Deforestation at five percent a decade is steadily depleting a valuable resource base for millions of people who depend on forest for survival. It also contributes to about 20 per cent of annual global CO2 emissions and seriously threatens biodiversity. A world-wide average 3 centigrade increase (compared to pre-industrial temperatures) over the coming decades would results in a range of localized increases that could reach twice as high in some locations. The effect that increase droughts, extreme weather events, tropical storms and sea level rises will

  3. How does the Redi parameter for mesoscale mixing impact global climate in an Earth System Model?

    Pradal, Marie-Aude; Gnanadesikan, Anand

    2014-09-01

    A coupled climate model is used to examine the impact of an increase in the mixing due to mesoscale eddies on the global climate system. A sixfold increase in the Redi mixing coefficient ARedi, which is within the admissible range of variation, has the overall effect of warming the global-mean surface air and sea surface temperatures by more than 1°C. Locally, sea surface temperatures increase by up to 7°C in the North Pacific and by up to 4°C in the Southern Ocean, with corresponding impacts on the ice concentration and ice extent in polar regions. However, it is not clear that the changes in heat transport from tropics to poles associated with changing this coefficient are primarily responsible for these changes. We found that the changes in the transport of heat are often much smaller than changes in long-wave trapping and short-wave absorption. Additionally, changes in the advective and diffusive transport of heat toward the poles often oppose each other. However, we note that the poleward transport of salt increases near the surface as ARedi increases. We suggest a causal chain in which enhanced eddy stirring leads to increased high-latitude surface salinity reducing salt stratification and water column stability and enhancing convection, triggering two feedback loops. In one, deeper convection prevents sea ice formation, which decreases albedo, which increases SW absorption, further increasing SST and decreasing sea ice formation. In the other, increased SST and reduced sea ice allow for more water vapor in the atmosphere, trapping long-wave radiation. Destratifying the polar regions is thus a potential way in which changes in ocean circulation might warm the planet.

  4. Disciplinary reporting affects the interpretation of climate change impacts in global oceans.

    Hauser, Donna D W; Tobin, Elizabeth D; Feifel, Kirsten M; Shah, Vega; Pietri, Diana M

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is affecting marine ecosystems, but different investigative approaches in physical, chemical, and biological disciplines may influence interpretations of climate-driven changes in the ocean. Here, we review the ocean change literature from 2007 to 2012 based on 461 of the most highly cited studies in physical and chemical oceanography and three biological subdisciplines. Using highly cited studies, we focus on research that has shaped recent discourse on climate-driven ocean change. Our review identified significant differences in spatial and temporal scales of investigation among disciplines. Physical/chemical studies had a median duration of 29 years (n = 150) and covered the greatest study areas (median 1.41 × 10(7) km(2) , n = 148). Few biological studies were conducted over similar spatial and temporal scales (median 8 years, n = 215; median 302 km(2) , n = 196), suggesting a more limited ability to separate climate-related responses from natural variability. We linked physical/chemical and biological disciplines by tracking studies examining biological responses to changing ocean conditions. Of the 545 biological responses recorded, a single physical or chemical stressor was usually implicated as the cause (59%), with temperature as the most common primary stressor (44%). The most frequently studied biological responses were changes in physiology (31%) and population abundance (30%). Differences in disciplinary studies, as identified in this review, can ultimately influence how researchers interpret climate-related impacts in marine systems. We identified research gaps and the need for more discourse in (1) the Indian and other Southern Hemisphere ocean basins; (2) research themes such as archaea, bacteria, viruses, mangroves, turtles, and ocean acidification; (3) physical and chemical stressors such as dissolved oxygen, salinity, and upwelling; and (4) adaptive responses of marine organisms to climate-driven ocean change. Our findings reveal

  5. Is the global rise of asthma an early impact of anthropogenic climate change?

    Paul John Beggs

    Full Text Available The increase in asthma incidence, prevalence, and morbidity over recent decades presents a significant challenge to public health. Pollen is an important trigger of some types of asthma, and both pollen quantity and season depend on climatic and meteorological variables. Over the same period as the global rise in asthma, there have been considerable increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and global average surface temperature. We hypothesize anthropogenic climate change as a plausible contributor to the rise in asthma. Greater concentrations of carbon dioxide and higher temperatures may increase pollen quantity and induce longer pollen seasons. Pollen allergenicity can also increase as a result of these changes in climate. Exposure in early life to a more allergenic environment may also provoke the development of other atopic conditions, such as eczema and allergic rhinitis. Although the etiology of asthma is complex, the recent global rise in asthma could be an early health effect of anthropogenic climate change.

  6. Impacts of Climate Change under the Threat of Global Warming for an Agricultural Watershed of the Kangsabati River

    Sujana Dhar; Asis Mazumdar

    2009-01-01

    The effects of global warming on India vary from the submergence of low-lying islands and coastal lands to the melting of glaciers in the Indian Himalayas, threatening the volumetric flow rate of many of the most important rivers of India and South Asia. In India, such effects are projected to impact millions of lives. As a result of ongoing climate change, the climate of India has become increasingly volatile over the past several decades; this trend is expected to conti...

  7. Global Climate Summaries

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Hourly Summaries are simple indicators of observational normals which include climatic data summarizations and frequency distributions. These typically...

  8. Impact of climate change on tropospheric ozone and its global budgets

    G. Zeng

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available We present the chemistry-climate model UMCAM in which a relatively detailed tropospheric chemical module has been incorporated into the UK Met Office's Unified Model version 4.5. We obtain good agreements between the modelled ozone/nitrogen species and a range of observations including surface ozone measurements, ozone sonde data, and some aircraft campaigns.

    Four 2100 calculations assess model responses to projected changes of anthropogenic emissions (SRES A2, climate change (due to doubling CO2, and idealised climate change-associated changes in biogenic emissions (i.e. 50% increase of isoprene emission and doubling emissions of soil-NOx. The global tropospheric ozone burden increases significantly for all the 2100 A2 simulations, with the largest response caused by the increase of anthropogenic emissions. Climate change has diverse impacts on O3 and its budgets through changes in circulation and meteorological variables. Increased water vapour causes a substantial ozone reduction especially in the tropical lower troposphere (>10 ppbv reduction over the tropical ocean. On the other hand, an enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchange of ozone, which increases by 80% due to doubling CO2, contributes to ozone increases in the extratropical free troposphere which subsequently propagate to the surface. Projected higher temperatures favour ozone chemical production and PAN decomposition which lead to high surface ozone levels in certain regions. Enhanced convection transports ozone precursors more rapidly out of the boundary layer resulting in an increase of ozone production in the free troposphere. Lightning-produced NOx increases by about 22% in the doubled CO2 climate and contributes to ozone production.

    The response to the increase of isoprene emissions shows that the change of ozone is largely determined by background NOx levels: high

  9. (Un)certainty in climate change impacts on global energy consumption

    van Ruijven, B. J.; De Cian, E.; Sue Wing, I.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have an influence on the energy sector, especially on energy demand. For many locations, this change in energy demand is a balance between increase of demand for space cooling and a decrease of space heating demand. We perform a large-scale uncertainty analysis to characterize climate change risk on energy consumption as driven by climate and socioeconomic uncertainty. We combine a dynamic econometric model1 with multiple realizations of temperature projections from all 21 CMIP5 models (from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections2) under moderate (RCP4.5) and vigorous (RCP8.5) warming. Global spatial population projections for five SSPs are combined with GDP projections to construct scenarios for future energy demand driven by socioeconomic change. Between the climate models, we find a median global increase in climate-related energy demand of around 24% by 2050 under RCP8.5 with an interquartile range of 18-38%. Most climate models agree on increases in energy demand of more than 25% or 50% in tropical regions, the Southern USA and Southern China (see Figure). With respect to socioeconomic scenarios, we find wide variations between the SSPs for the number of people in low-income countries who are exposed to increases in energy demand. Figure attached: Number of models that agree on total climate-related energy consumption to increase or decrease by more than 0, 10, 25 or 50% by 2050 under RCP8.5 and SSP5 as result of the CMIP5 ensemble of temperature projections. References1. De Cian, E. & Sue Wing, I. Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate. (FEEM, 2016). 2. Thrasher, B., Maurer, E. P., McKellar, C. & Duffy, P. B. Technical Note: Bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16, 3309-3314 (2012).

  10. Forest health in a changing world: Effects of globalization and climate change on forest insect and pathogen impacts

    T. D. Ramsfield; Barbara Bentz; M. Faccoli; H. Jactel; E. G. Brockerhoff

    2016-01-01

    Forests and trees throughout the world are increasingly affected by factors related to global change. Expanding international trade has facilitated invasions of numerous insects and pathogens into new regions. Many of these invasions have caused substantial forest damage, economic impacts and losses of ecosystem goods and services provided by trees. Climate...

  11. Development of the virtual research environment for analysis, evaluation and prediction of global climate change impacts on the regional environment

    Okladnikov, Igor; Gordov, Evgeny; Titov, Alexander; Fazliev, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    Description and the first results of the Russian Science Foundation project "Virtual computational information environment for analysis, evaluation and prediction of the impacts of global climate change on the environment and climate of a selected region" is presented. The project is aimed at development of an Internet-accessible computation and information environment providing unskilled in numerical modelling and software design specialists, decision-makers and stakeholders with reliable and easy-used tools for in-depth statistical analysis of climatic characteristics, and instruments for detailed analysis, assessment and prediction of impacts of global climate change on the environment and climate of the targeted region. In the framework of the project, approaches of "cloud" processing and analysis of large geospatial datasets will be developed on the technical platform of the Russian leading institution involved in research of climate change and its consequences. Anticipated results will create a pathway for development and deployment of thematic international virtual research laboratory focused on interdisciplinary environmental studies. VRE under development will comprise best features and functionality of earlier developed information and computing system CLIMATE (http://climate.scert.ru/), which is widely used in Northern Eurasia environment studies. The Project includes several major directions of research listed below. 1. Preparation of geo-referenced data sets, describing the dynamics of the current and possible future climate and environmental changes in detail. 2. Improvement of methods of analysis of climate change. 3. Enhancing the functionality of the VRE prototype in order to create a convenient and reliable tool for the study of regional social, economic and political consequences of climate change. 4. Using the output of the first three tasks, compilation of the VRE prototype, its validation, preparation of applicable detailed description of

  12. Global Climate Models for the Classroom: The Educational Impact of Student Work with a Key Tool of Climate Scientists

    Bush, D. F.; Sieber, R.; Seiler, G.; Chandler, M. A.; Chmura, G. L.

    2017-12-01

    Efforts to address climate change require public understanding of Earth and climate science. To meet this need, educators require instructional approaches and scientific technologies that overcome cultural barriers to impart conceptual understanding of the work of climate scientists. We compared student inquiry learning with now ubiquitous climate education toy models, data and tools against that which took place using a computational global climate model (GCM) from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Our study at McGill University and John Abbott College in Montreal, QC sheds light on how best to teach the research processes important to Earth and climate scientists studying atmospheric and Earth system processes but ill-understood by those outside the scientific community. We followed a pre/post, control/treatment experimental design that enabled detailed analysis and statistically significant results. Our research found more students succeed at understanding climate change when exposed to actual climate research processes and instruments. Inquiry-based education with a GCM resulted in significantly higher scores pre to post on diagnostic exams (quantitatively) and more complete conceptual understandings (qualitatively). We recognize the difficulty in planning and teaching inquiry with complex technology and we also found evidence that lectures support learning geared toward assessment exams.

  13. Climate change - global warming

    Ciconkov, Risto

    2001-01-01

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  14. Impact of global warming on the geobotanic zones: an experiment with a statistical-dynamical climate model

    Franchito, Sergio H.; Brahmananda Rao, V. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Ciencia do Sistema Terrestre, CCST, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil); Moraes, E.C. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Divisao de Sensoriamento Remoto, DSR, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2011-11-15

    In this study, a zonally-averaged statistical climate model (SDM) is used to investigate the impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe. The model includes a parameterization of the biogeophysical feedback mechanism that links the state of surface to the atmosphere (a bidirectional interaction between vegetation and climate). In the control experiment (simulation of the present-day climate) the geobotanic state is well simulated by the model, so that the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe shows a very good agreement with the observed ones. The impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones is investigated considering the increase of CO{sub 2} concentration for the B1, A2 and A1FI scenarios. The results showed that the geobotanic zones over the entire earth can be modified in future due to global warming. Expansion of subtropical desert and semi-desert zones in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, retreat of glaciers and sea-ice, with the Arctic region being particularly affected and a reduction of the tropical rainforest and boreal forest can occur due to the increase of the greenhouse gases concentration. The effects were more pronounced in the A1FI and A2 scenarios compared with the B1 scenario. The SDM results confirm IPCC AR4 projections of future climate and are consistent with simulations of more complex GCMs, reinforcing the necessity of the mitigation of climate change associated to global warming. (orig.)

  15. Only an integrated approach across academia, enterprise, governments, and global agencies can tackle the public health impact of climate change

    Stordalen, Gunhild A.; Rocklöv, Joacim; Nilsson, Maria; Byass, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Background Despite considerable global attention to the issues of climate change, relatively little priority has been given to the likely effects on human health of current and future changes in the global climate. We identify three major societal determinants that influence the impact of climate change on human health, namely the application of scholarship and knowledge; economic and commercial considerations; and actions of governments and global agencies. Discussion The three major areas are each discussed in terms of the ways in which they facilitate and frustrate attempts to protect human health from the effects of climate change. Academia still pays very little attention to the effects of climate on health in poorer countries. Enterprise is starting to recognise that healthy commerce depends on healthy people, and so climate change presents long-term threats if it compromises health. Governments and international agencies are very active, but often face immovable vested interests in other sectors. Overall, there tends to be too little interaction between the three areas, and this means that potential synergies and co-benefits are not always realised. Conclusion More attention from academia, enterprise, and international agencies needs to be given to the potential threats the climate change presents to human health. However, there needs to also be much closer collaboration between all three areas in order to capitalise on possible synergies that can be achieved between them. PMID:23653920

  16. Global impact of road traffic on atmospheric chemical composition and on ozone climate forcing

    Niemeier, Ulrike; Granier, Claire; Kornblueh, Luis; Walters, Stacy; Brasseur, Guy P.

    2006-05-01

    Automobile emissions are known to contribute to local air pollution and to photochemical smog in urban areas. The impact of road traffic on the chemical composition of the troposphere at the global scale and on climate forcing is less well quantified. Calculations performed with the chemical transport MOZART-2 model show that the concentrations of ozone and its precursors (NOx, CO, and hydrocarbons) are considerably enhanced in most regions of the Northern Hemisphere in response to current surface traffic. During summertime in the Northern Hemisphere, road traffic has increased the zonally averaged ozone concentration by more than 10% in the boundary layer and in the extratropics by approximately 6% at 500 hPa and 2.5% at 300 hPa. The summertime surface ozone concentrations have increased by typically 1-5 ppbv in the remote regions and by 5-20 ppbv in industrialized regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The corresponding ozone-related radiative forcing is 0.05 Wm-2. In order to assess the sensitivity of potential changes in road traffic intensity, two additional model cases were considered, in which traffic-related emissions in all regions of the world were assumed to be on a per capita basis the same as in Europe and in the United States, respectively. In the second and most dramatic case, the surface ozone concentration increases by 30-50 ppbv (50-100%) in south Asia as compared to the present situation. Under this assumption, the global radiative forcing due to traffic-generated ozone reaches 0.27 Wm-2.

  17. Climate change - the impacts

    Reysset, Bertrand; Billes-Garabedian, Laurent; Henique, Julien; Pascal, Mathilde; Pirard, Philippe; Motreff, Yvon; Barbault, Robert; Weber, Jacques; Gate, Philippe; Salagnac, Jean-Luc; Desplat, Julien; Kounkou-Arnaud, Raphaelle

    2012-01-01

    This special dossier about the impacts of climate change is made of 6 contributions dealing with: the mitigation of climate effects and how to deal with them (Bertrand Reysset); how to dare and transmit (Laurent Billes-Garabedian); littoral risks, the Pas-de-Calais example (Julien Henique); extreme meteorological events and health impacts (Mathilde Pascal, Philippe Pirard, Yvon Motreff); Biodiversity and climate: the janus of global change (Robert Barbault, Jacques Weber); adapting agriculture to dryness and temperatures (Philippe Gate); Paris and the future heats of the year 2100 (Jean-Luc Salagnac, Julien Desplat, Raphaelle Kounkou-Arnaud)

  18. International Impacts of Global Climate Change: Testimony to House Appropriations Subcommittee on Foreign Operations, Export Financing and Related Programs

    Fulkerson, W.; Cushman, R. M.; Marland, G.; Rayner, S.

    1989-02-21

    International impacts of global climate change are those for which the important consequences arise because of national sovereignty. Such impacts could be of two types: (1) migrations across national borders of people, of resources (such as agricultural productivity, or surface water, or natural ecosystems), of effluents, or of patterns of commerce; and (2) changes to the way nations use and manage their resources, particularly fossil fuels and forests, as a consequence of international concern over the global climate. Actions by a few resource-dominant nations may affect the fate of all. These two types of international impacts raise complex equity issues because one nation may perceive itself as gaining at the expense of its neighbors, or it may perceive itself as a victim of the actions of others.

  19. Global climate convention

    Simonis, U.E.

    1991-01-01

    The effort of negotiate a global convention on climate change is one of mankind's great endeavours - and a challenge to economists and development planners. The inherent linkages between climate and the habitability of the earth are increasingly well recognized, and a convention could help to ensure that conserving the environment and developing the economy in the future must go hand in hand. Due to growing environmental concern the United Nations General Assembly has set into motion an international negotiating process for a framework convention on climate change. One the major tasks in these negotiations is how to share the duties in reducing climate relevant gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), between the industrial and the developing countries. The results and proposals could be among the most far-reaching ever for socio-economic development, indeed for global security and survival itself. While the negotiations will be about climate and protection of the atmosphere, they will be on fundamental global changes in energy policies, forestry, transport, technology, and on development pathways with low greenhouse gas emissions. Some of these aspects of a climate convention, particularly the distributional options and consequences for the North-South relations, are addressed in this chapter. (orig.)

  20. Global vs climate change

    Watson, H.L.; Bach, M.C.; Goklany, I.M.

    1991-01-01

    The various agents of global change that will affect the state of natural resources 50-100 years from now are discussed. These include economic and population growth, technological progress, and climatic change. The importance of climatic change lies in its effects on natural resources and on human activities that depend on those resources. Other factors affecting those resources include the demand on those resources from an increasing population and from a growing economy, and a more efficient use of those resources that comes from technological changes and from the consequences of economic growth itself. It is shown that there is a considerable ability to adapt to climatic change, since humans already have an intrinsic ability to adapt to the wide variations in climates that already exist and since technological developments can make it easier to cope with climatic variability. It appears that agents other than climatic change are more significant to the future state of natural resources than climatic change. Criteria for selecting options for addressing climatic change are outlined. Technological change and economic growth are seen to be key response options, since the vulnerability to climatic change depends on economic resources and technological progress. Specific options to stimulate sustainable economic growth and technological progress are listed. 16 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  1. Air pollution and climate-forcing impacts of a global hydrogen economy.

    Schultz, Martin G; Diehl, Thomas; Brasseur, Guy P; Zittel, Werner

    2003-10-24

    If today's surface traffic fleet were powered entirely by hydrogen fuel cell technology, anthropogenic emissions of the ozone precursors nitrogen oxide (NOx) and carbon monoxide could be reduced by up to 50%, leading to significant improvements in air quality throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Model simulations of such a scenario predict a decrease in global OH and an increased lifetime of methane, caused primarily by the reduction of the NOx emissions. The sign of the change in climate forcing caused by carbon dioxide and methane depends on the technology used to generate the molecular hydrogen. A possible rise in atmospheric hydrogen concentrations is unlikely to cause significant perturbations of the climate system.

  2. Bird Species and Climate Change. The Global Status Report. A synthesis of current scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change impacts on global bird species now, and projected future effects

    Wormworth, J.; Mallon, K.

    2006-01-01

    The results of a global analysis of current and future impacts of climate change on birds are presented. The report reviews more than 200 research reports to assemble a clear and consistent picture of climatic risk to this important animal group, illustrated with numerous examples and case studies. It is found that: climate change now affects bird species' behaviour, ranges and population dynamics; some bird species are already experiencing strong negative impacts from climate change; and in future, subject to greenhouse gas emissions levels and climatic response, climate change will put large numbers of bird species at risk of extinction, with estimates of extinction rates varying from 2 to 72%, depending on the region, climate scenario and potential for birds to shift to new habitat

  3. Bird Species and Climate Change. The Global Status Report. A synthesis of current scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change impacts on global bird species now, and projected future effects

    Wormworth, J.; Mallon, K. [Climate Risk Pty Limited, Fairlight (Australia)

    2006-07-01

    The results of a global analysis of current and future impacts of climate change on birds are presented. The report reviews more than 200 research reports to assemble a clear and consistent picture of climatic risk to this important animal group, illustrated with numerous examples and case studies. It is found that: climate change now affects bird species' behaviour, ranges and population dynamics; some bird species are already experiencing strong negative impacts from climate change; and in future, subject to greenhouse gas emissions levels and climatic response, climate change will put large numbers of bird species at risk of extinction, with estimates of extinction rates varying from 2 to 72%, depending on the region, climate scenario and potential for birds to shift to new habitat.

  4. Global inequities between polluters and the polluted: climate change impacts on coral reefs.

    Wolff, Nicholas H; Donner, Simon D; Cao, Long; Iglesias-Prieto, Roberto; Sale, Peter F; Mumby, Peter J

    2015-11-01

    For many ecosystem services, it remains uncertain whether the impacts of climate change will be mostly negative or positive and how these changes will be geographically distributed. These unknowns hamper the identification of regional winners and losers, which can influence debate over climate policy. Here, we use coral reefs to explore the spatial variability of climate stress by modelling the ecological impacts of rising sea temperatures and ocean acidification, two important coral stressors associated with increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We then combine these results with national per capita emissions to quantify inequities arising from the distribution of cause (CO2 emissions) and effect (stress upon reefs) among coral reef countries. We find pollution and coral stress are spatially decoupled, creating substantial inequity of impacts as a function of emissions. We then consider the implications of such inequity for international climate policy. Targets for GHG reductions are likely to be tied to a country's emissions. Yet within a given level of GHG emissions, our analysis reveals that some countries experience relatively high levels of impact and will likely experience greater financial cost in terms of lost ecosystem productivity and more extensive adaptation measures. We suggest countries so disadvantaged be given access to international adaptation funds proportionate with impacts to their ecosystem. We raise the idea that funds could be more equitably allocated by formally including a metric of equity within a vulnerability framework. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. The potential negative impacts of global climate change on tropical montane cloud forests

    Foster, Pru

    2001-10-01

    Nearly every aspect of the cloud forest is affected by regular cloud immersion, from the hydrological cycle to the species of plants and animals within the forest. Since the altitude band of cloud formation on tropical mountains is limited, the tropical montane cloud forest occurs in fragmented strips and has been likened to island archipelagoes. This isolation and uniqueness promotes explosive speciation, exceptionally high endemism, and a great sensitivity to climate. Global climate change threatens all ecosystems through temperature and rainfall changes, with a typical estimate for altitude shifts in the climatic optimum for mountain ecotones of hundreds of meters by the time of CO 2 doubling. This alone suggests complete replacement of many of the narrow altitude range cloud forests by lower altitude ecosystems, as well as the expulsion of peak residing cloud forests into extinction. However, the cloud forest will also be affected by other climate changes, in particular changes in cloud formation. A number of global climate models suggest a reduction in low level cloudiness with the coming climate changes, and one site in particular, Monteverde, Costa Rica, appears to already be experiencing a reduction in cloud immersion. The coming climate changes appear very likely to upset the current dynamic equilibrium of the cloud forest. Results will include biodiversity loss, altitude shifts in species' ranges and subsequent community reshuffling, and possibly forest death. Difficulties for cloud forest species to survive in climate-induced migrations include no remaining location with a suitable climate, no pristine location to colonize, migration rates or establishment rates that cannot keep up with climate change rates and new species interactions. We review previous cloud forest species redistributions in the paleo-record in light of the coming changes. The characteristic epiphytes of the cloud forest play an important role in the light, hydrological and nutrient

  6. Global decomposition experiment shows soil animal impacts on decomposition are climate-dependent

    Wall, D.H.; Bradford, M.A.; John, M.G.St.; Trofymow, J.A.; Behan-Pelletier, V.; Bignell, D.E.; Dangerfield, J.M.; Parton, W.J.; Rusek, Josef; Voigt, W.; Wolters, V.; Gardel, H.Z.; Ayuke, F. O.; Bashford, R.; Beljakova, O.I.; Bohlen, P.J.; Brauman, A.; Flemming, S.; Henschel, J.R.; Johnson, D.L.; Jones, T.H.; Kovářová, Marcela; Kranabetter, J.M.; Kutny, L.; Lin, K.-Ch.; Maryati, M.; Masse, D.; Pokarzhevskii, A.; Rahman, H.; Sabará, M.G.; Salamon, J.-A.; Swift, M.J.; Varela, A.; Vasconcelos, H.L.; White, D.; Zou, X.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 11 (2008), s. 2661-2677 ISSN 1354-1013 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60660521; CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Keywords : climate decomposition index * decomposition * litter Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 5.876, year: 2008

  7. Projected impacts of climate change on regional capacities for global plant species richness.

    Sommer, Jan Henning; Kreft, Holger; Kier, Gerold; Jetz, Walter; Mutke, Jens; Barthlott, Wilhelm

    2010-08-07

    Climate change represents a major challenge to the maintenance of global biodiversity. To date, the direction and magnitude of net changes in the global distribution of plant diversity remain elusive. We use the empirical multi-variate relationships between contemporary water-energy dynamics and other non-climatic predictor variables to model the regional capacity for plant species richness (CSR) and its projected future changes. We find that across all analysed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios, relative changes in CSR increase with increased projected temperature rise. Between now and 2100, global average CSR is projected to remain similar to today (+0.3%) under the optimistic B1/+1.8 degrees C scenario, but to decrease significantly (-9.4%) under the 'business as usual' A1FI/+4.0 degrees C scenario. Across all modelled scenarios, the magnitude and direction of CSR change are geographically highly non-uniform. While in most temperate and arctic regions, a CSR increase is expected, the projections indicate a strong decline in most tropical and subtropical regions. Countries least responsible for past and present greenhouse gas emissions are likely to incur disproportionately large future losses in CSR, whereas industrialized countries have projected moderate increases. Independent of direction, we infer that all changes in regional CSR will probably induce on-site species turnover and thereby be a threat to native floras.

  8. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John

    2015-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  9. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Antle, J. M.; Elliott, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIP's community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPs/SSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate change's impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIP's 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  10. Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

    Engström, Kerstin; Lindeskog, Mats; Olin, Stefan; Hassler, John; Smith, Benjamin

    2017-09-01

    Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate-change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining three previously published models (a climate-economy model, a socio-economic land use model and an ecosystem model). We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the narratives and key elements of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Taking emissions from the land use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 Taking the green road). For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.

  11. Climate SPHINX: evaluating the impact of resolution and stochastic physics parameterisations in the EC-Earth global climate model

    Davini, Paolo; von Hardenberg, Jost; Corti, Susanna; Christensen, Hannah M.; Juricke, Stephan; Subramanian, Aneesh; Watson, Peter A. G.; Weisheimer, Antje; Palmer, Tim N.

    2017-03-01

    The Climate SPHINX (Stochastic Physics HIgh resolutioN eXperiments) project is a comprehensive set of ensemble simulations aimed at evaluating the sensitivity of present and future climate to model resolution and stochastic parameterisation. The EC-Earth Earth system model is used to explore the impact of stochastic physics in a large ensemble of 30-year climate integrations at five different atmospheric horizontal resolutions (from 125 up to 16 km). The project includes more than 120 simulations in both a historical scenario (1979-2008) and a climate change projection (2039-2068), together with coupled transient runs (1850-2100). A total of 20.4 million core hours have been used, made available from a single year grant from PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe), and close to 1.5 PB of output data have been produced on SuperMUC IBM Petascale System at the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre (LRZ) in Garching, Germany. About 140 TB of post-processed data are stored on the CINECA supercomputing centre archives and are freely accessible to the community thanks to an EUDAT data pilot project. This paper presents the technical and scientific set-up of the experiments, including the details on the forcing used for the simulations performed, defining the SPHINX v1.0 protocol. In addition, an overview of preliminary results is given. An improvement in the simulation of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric blocking following resolution increase is observed. It is also shown that including stochastic parameterisation in the low-resolution runs helps to improve some aspects of the tropical climate - specifically the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the tropical rainfall variability. These findings show the importance of representing the impact of small-scale processes on the large-scale climate variability either explicitly (with high-resolution simulations) or stochastically (in low-resolution simulations).

  12. Global guidance on environmental life cycle impact assessment indicators: impacts of climate change, fine particulate matter formation, water consumption and land use

    Jolliet, Olivier; Antón, Assumpció; Boulay, Anne-Marie

    2018-01-01

    of water consumption on human health assesses the DALYs from malnutrition caused by lack of water for irrigated food production. Land use impacts: CFs representing global potential species loss from land use are proposed as interim recommendation suitable to assess biodiversity loss due to land use......Purpose: Guidance is needed on best-suited indicators to quantify and monitor the man-made impacts on human health, biodiversity and resources. Therefore, the UNEP-SETAC Life Cycle Initiative initiated a global consensus process to agree on an updated overall life cycle impact assessment (LCIA...... are recommended: (a) The global warming potential 100 years (GWP 100) represents shorter term impacts associated with rate of change and adaptation capacity, and (b) the global temperature change potential 100 years (GTP 100) characterizes the century-scale long term impacts, both including climate-carbon cycle...

  13. A Global and Spatially Explicit Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production and Consumptive Water Use

    Liu, Junguo; Folberth, Christian; Yang, Hong; Röckström, Johan; Abbaspour, Karim; Zehnder, Alexander J. B.

    2013-01-01

    Food security and water scarcity have become two major concerns for future human's sustainable development, particularly in the context of climate change. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on the production and water use of major cereal crops on a global scale with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes for the 2030s (short term) and the 2090s (long term), respectively. Our findings show that impact uncertainties are higher on larger spatial scales (e.g., global and continental) but lower on smaller spatial scales (e.g., national and grid cell). Such patterns allow decision makers and investors to take adaptive measures without being puzzled by a highly uncertain future at the global level. Short-term gains in crop production from climate change are projected for many regions, particularly in African countries, but the gains will mostly vanish and turn to losses in the long run. Irrigation dependence in crop production is projected to increase in general. However, several water poor regions will rely less heavily on irrigation, conducive to alleviating regional water scarcity. The heterogeneity of spatial patterns and the non-linearity of temporal changes of the impacts call for site-specific adaptive measures with perspectives of reducing short- and long-term risks of future food and water security. PMID:23460901

  14. A global and spatially explicit assessment of climate change impacts on crop production and consumptive water use.

    Junguo Liu

    Full Text Available Food security and water scarcity have become two major concerns for future human's sustainable development, particularly in the context of climate change. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on the production and water use of major cereal crops on a global scale with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes for the 2030s (short term and the 2090s (long term, respectively. Our findings show that impact uncertainties are higher on larger spatial scales (e.g., global and continental but lower on smaller spatial scales (e.g., national and grid cell. Such patterns allow decision makers and investors to take adaptive measures without being puzzled by a highly uncertain future at the global level. Short-term gains in crop production from climate change are projected for many regions, particularly in African countries, but the gains will mostly vanish and turn to losses in the long run. Irrigation dependence in crop production is projected to increase in general. However, several water poor regions will rely less heavily on irrigation, conducive to alleviating regional water scarcity. The heterogeneity of spatial patterns and the non-linearity of temporal changes of the impacts call for site-specific adaptive measures with perspectives of reducing short- and long-term risks of future food and water security.

  15. Impacts of climate change on European hydrology at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees mean global warming above preindustrial level

    Donnelly, Chantal; Greuell, Wouter; Andersson, Jafet; Gerten, Dieter; Pisacane, Giovanna; Roudier, Philippe; Ludwig, Fulco

    2017-01-01

    Impacts of climate change at 1.5, 2 and 3 °C mean global warming above preindustrial level are investigated and compared for runoff, discharge and snowpack in Europe. Ensembles of climate projections representing each of the warming levels were assembled to describe the hydro-meteorological climate

  16. Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

    K. Engström

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate-change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining three previously published models (a climate–economy model, a socio-economic land use model and an ecosystem model. We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the narratives and key elements of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs. Taking emissions from the land use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 Taking the green road. For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.

  17. Modeling the Impacts of Global Climate and Regional Land Use Change on Regional Climate, Air Quality and Public Health in the New York Metropolitan Region

    Rosenthal, J. E.; Knowlton, K. M.; Kinney, P. L.

    2002-12-01

    There is an imminent need to downscale the global climate models used by international consortiums like the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to predict the future regional impacts of climate change. To meet this need, a "place-based" climate model that makes specific regional projections about future environmental conditions local inhabitants could face is being created by the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, in collaboration with other researchers and universities, for New York City and the 31 surrounding counties. This presentation describes the design and initial results of this modeling study, aimed at simulating the effects of global climate change and regional land use change on climate and air quality over the northeastern United States in order to project the associated public health impacts in the region. Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone and fine particles are significant current public health stressors in the New York metropolitan area. The New York Climate and Health Project is linking human dimension and natural sciences models to assess the potential for future public health impacts from heat stress and air quality, and yield improved tools for assessing climate change impacts. The model will be applied to the NY metropolitan east coast region. The following questions will be addressed: 1. What changes in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events are likely to occur over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and land cover (LU/LC) and climate change in the region? 2. How might the frequency and severity of episodic concentrations of ozone (O3) and airborne particulate matter smaller than 2.5 æm in diameter (PM2.5) change over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and climate change in the metropolitan region? 3. What is the range of possible human health impacts of these changes in the region? 4. How might projected future human

  18. Man -made greenhouse gases trigger unified force to start global warming impacts referred to as climate change

    Karishnan, K.J.; Kalam, A.

    2011-01-01

    Global warming problems due to man-made greenhouse gases (GHGs), appear to be a serious concern and threat to the globe. CO/sub 2/, O/sub 3, NOx and HFC's are the main greenhouse gases and CO/sub 2/ is one of the main cause of global warming. CO/sub 2/ is emitted from burning fossil fuels to produce electricity from power plants and burning of gasoline in vehicles and airplanes. Global greenhouse gases and its sources in regions are discussed in this paper. This paper initially discusses the CO/sub 2/ emissions and the recycle of CO/sub 2/ in biodiesel. This paper mainly focuses on 'Unified Force'. The increase of H/sub 2/O in the sea due to warming of the globe triggers the 'Unified Force' or 'Self-Compressive Surrounding Pressure Force' which is proportional to the H/sub 2/O level in the sea to start global warming impacts referred to as climate change. This paper also points out the climate change and the ten surprising results of global warming. Finally, this paper suggests switching from fossil fuel technology to green energy technologies like biodiesel which recycles CO/sub 2/ emissions and also Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Technologies which eradicates global warming impacts. The benefits of switching from fossil fuel to biodiesel and Hydrogen Energy utilization includes reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and pollution, economic independence by having distributed production and burning of biodiesel does not add extra CO/sub 2/ to the air that contributes global warming impacts. (author)

  19. Monitoring the impacts of weather and climate extremes on global agricultural production

    Robert Johansson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB, under the direction of the Department of Agriculture's Office of the Chief Economist, employs a staff of agricultural meteorologists whose mission is to monitor and assess the impacts of weather and climate on crops in key growing areas throughout the world. The results of those analyses contribute to the deliberations conducted by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees (ICEC led by analysts at the World Agricultural Outlook Board. The results of those deliberations can be found in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE report, one of the designated Principle Federal Economic Indicators issued monthly by the Federal Government (White House (Office of Management and Budget, 2015. The process used to develop those estimates each month requires the integration of an assessment of the current climatic conditions with knowledge of the agricultural practices and market conditions of a particular country. Weather and climate data are used in conjunction with information on when and where crops are planted, production practices including irrigation, which varieties are best suited for that particular climate, and what naturally occurring hazards can be expected in any given year. Being able to closely compare current conditions to historic observations of weather and realized output on a fine scale, temporally and geographically, is a key component of the international estimates in the WASDE process.

  20. Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Water and Salt Budgets of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

    Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.

    1996-01-01

    The annual flux of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean by the atmosphere and rivers is balanced by the export of sea ice and oceanic freshwater. Two 150-year simulations of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that the total inflow of water from the atmosphere and rivers increases by 10% primarily due to an increase in river discharge, the annual sea-ice export decreases by about half, the oceanic liquid water export increases, salinity decreases, sea-ice cover decreases, and the total mass and sea-surface height of the Arctic Ocean increase. The closed, compact, and multi-phased nature of the hydrologic cycle in the Arctic Ocean makes it an ideal test of water budgets that could be included in model intercomparisons.

  1. Impact of global warming on performance of ground source heat pumps in US climate zones

    Shen, Pengyuan; Lukes, Jennifer R.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Used morphing method to have downscaled hourly local weather data from GCM. • Selected representative cities in different climate zones in the US for case study on GSHP performance. • Used hourly building simulation tools (eQuest and TRNSYS) to project GSHP performance in future. • Analysis on GSHP performance in 2050 for both residential and office building in the US are conducted. - Abstract: Ground source heat pumps (GSHP) have attracted increasing attention because of their high energy efficiencies. The aim of this paper is to study the performance of (GSHP) in future climate conditions (2040–2069) by using projected future hourly weather data of selected representative cities in the US to estimate future ground temperature change. The projected hourly weather data and estimated ground temperatures are input to an hourly simulation tool (TRNSYS and eQuest for this research), which provides reliable coupling of GSHP system and building performance. The simulation results show that global warming will decrease the energy efficiency of GSHP in US residential buildings because a rise in inlet and outlet water temperature is predicted for GSHP systems during the cooling season and because buildings will become more cooling dominated in the future. For office buildings, although the cooling performance of GSHP will not drop significantly under future climate, the overall energy efficiency for the system will decrease due to the increasing energy consumption of the ground loop pump. In the future, considering the significant ground heat imbalance for GSHP operation, GSHP will become less competitive both economically and technically than it is now in the context of US climate zones

  2. Global Air Quality and Climate

    Fiore, Arlene M.; Naik, Vaishali; Steiner, Allison; Unger, Nadine; Bergmann, Dan; Prather, Michael; Righi, Mattia; Rumbold, Steven T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Skeie, Ragnhild B.; hide

    2012-01-01

    Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative

  3. A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

    Gosling, S. N.; Taylor, R. G.; Arnell, N. W.; Todd, M. C.

    2011-01-01

    We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM) and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM). Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and developmental conditions. These include the Liard (Canada), Mekong (SE Asia), Okavango (SW Africa), Rio Grande (Brazil), Xiangxi (China) and Harper's Brook (UK). A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09) is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs include SLURP v. 12.2 (Liard), SLURP v. 12.7 (Mekong), Pitman (Okavango), MGB-IPH (Rio Grande), AV-SWAT-X 2005 (Xiangxi) and Cat-PDM (Harper's Brook). The CHMs typically simulate water resource impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM and the CHMs include river routing, whereas the GHM does not. Simulations of mean annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5) and low (Q95) monthly runoff under baseline (1961-1990) and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1) prescribed increases in global-mean air temperature of 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 and 6.0 °C relative to baseline from the UKMO HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) to explore response to different amounts of climate forcing, and (2) a prescribed increase in global-mean air temperature of 2.0 °C relative to baseline for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model structural uncertainty. We find that the differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM (e.g. an absolute GHM-CHM difference in mean annual runoff percentage change for UKMO HadCM3 2 °C warming of up to 25%), and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low monthly runoff. However

  4. A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

    S. N. Gosling

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM. Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and developmental conditions. These include the Liard (Canada, Mekong (SE Asia, Okavango (SW Africa, Rio Grande (Brazil, Xiangxi (China and Harper's Brook (UK. A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09 is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs include SLURP v. 12.2 (Liard, SLURP v. 12.7 (Mekong, Pitman (Okavango, MGB-IPH (Rio Grande, AV-SWAT-X 2005 (Xiangxi and Cat-PDM (Harper's Brook. The CHMs typically simulate water resource impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM and the CHMs include river routing, whereas the GHM does not. Simulations of mean annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5 and low (Q95 monthly runoff under baseline (1961–1990 and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1 prescribed increases in global-mean air temperature of 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 and 6.0 °C relative to baseline from the UKMO HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM to explore response to different amounts of climate forcing, and (2 a prescribed increase in global-mean air temperature of 2.0 °C relative to baseline for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model structural uncertainty.

    We find that the differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM (e.g. an absolute GHM-CHM difference in mean annual runoff percentage change for UKMO HadCM3 2 °C warming of up to 25%, and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low monthly runoff

  5. Strategic Global Climate Command?

    Long, J. C. S.

    2016-12-01

    Researchers have been exploring geoengineering because Anthropogenic GHG emissions could drive the globe towards unihabitability for people, wildlife and vegetation. Potential global deployment of these technologies is inherently strategic. For example, solar radiation management to reflect more sunlight might be strategically useful during a period of time where the population completes an effort to cease emissions and carbon removal technologies might then be strategically deployed to move the atmospheric concentrations back to a safer level. Consequently, deployment of these global technologies requires the ability to think and act strategically on the part of the planet's governments. Such capacity most definitely does not exist today but it behooves scientists and engineers to be involved in thinking through how global command might develop because the way they do the research could support the development of a capacity to deploy intervention rationally -- or irrationally. Internationalizing research would get countries used to working together. Organizing the research in a step-wise manner where at each step scientists become skilled at explaining what they have learned, the quality of the information they have, what they don't know and what more they can do to reduce or handle uncertainty, etc. Such a process can increase societal confidence in being able to make wise decisions about deployment. Global capacity will also be enhanced if the sceintific establishment reinvents misssion driven research so that the programs will identify the systemic issues invovled in any proposed technology and systematically address them with research while still encouraging individual creativity. Geoengineering will diverge from climate science in that geoengineering research needs to design interventions for some publically desirable goal and investigates whether a proposed intervention will acheive desired outcomes. The effort must be a systems-engineering design problem

  6. Global climate change

    Gugele, B.; Radunsky, K.; Spangl, W.

    2002-01-01

    In the last decade marked changes of climatic factors have been observed, such as increases in average global earth temperatures, the amount of precipitation and the number of extreme weather events. Green house gases influence the energy flow in the atmosphere by absorbing infra-red radiation. An overview of the Austrian greenhouse gas emissions is given, including statistical data and their major sources. In 1999 the emissions of all six Kyoto greenhouse gases ( CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, HFC s , PFC s and SF 6 ) amounted to 79.2 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalents . A comparison between the EC Members states is also presented. Finally the climate change strategy prepared by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management together with other ministries and the federal provinces is discussed, which main aim is to lead to an annual emission reduction of 16 million tonnes of CO 2 . Figs. 2, Tables 1. (nevyjel)

  7. CITYZEN climate impact studies

    Schutz, Martin (ed.)

    2011-07-01

    We have estimated the impact of climate change on the chemical composition of the troposphere due to changes in climate from current climate (2000-2010) looking 40 years ahead (2040-2050). The climate projection has been made by the ECHAM5 model and was followed by chemistry-transport modelling using a global model, Oslo CTM2 (Isaksen et al., 2005; Srvde et al., 2008), and a regional model, EMEP. In this report we focus on carbon monoxide (CO) and surface ozone (O3) which are measures of primary and secondary air pollution. In parallel we have estimated the change in the same air pollutants resulting from changes in emissions over the same time period. (orig.)

  8. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  9. Potential global climate change

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    Global economic integration and growth contribute much to the construction of energy plants, vehicles and other industrial products that produces carbon emission and in effect cause the destruction of the environment. A coordinated policy and response worldwide to curb emissions and to effect global climate change must be introduced. Improvement in scientific understanding is required to monitor how much emission reduction is necessary. In the near term, especially in the next seven years, sustained research and development for low carbon or carbon-free energy is necessary. Other measures must also be introduced, such as limiting the use of vehicles, closing down inefficient power plants, etc. In the long term, the use of the electric car, use solar energy, etc. is required. Reforestation must also be considered to absorb large amounts of carbon in the atmosphere

  10. Climate change impact of livestock CH4 emission in India: Global temperature change potential (GTP) and surface temperature response.

    Kumari, Shilpi; Hiloidhari, Moonmoon; Kumari, Nisha; Naik, S N; Dahiya, R P

    2018-01-01

    Two climate metrics, Global surface Temperature Change Potential (GTP) and the Absolute GTP (AGTP) are used for studying the global surface temperature impact of CH 4 emission from livestock in India. The impact on global surface temperature is estimated for 20 and 100 year time frames due to CH 4 emission. The results show that the CH 4 emission from livestock, worked out to 15.3 Tg in 2012. In terms of climate metrics GTP of livestock-related CH 4 emission in India in 2012 were 1030 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 20 ) and 62 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 100 ) at the 20 and 100 year time horizon, respectively. The study also illustrates that livestock-related CH 4 emissions in India can cause a surface temperature increase of up to 0.7mK and 0.036mK over the 20 and 100 year time periods, respectively. The surface temperature response to a year of Indian livestock emission peaks at 0.9mK in the year 2021 (9 years after the time of emission). The AGTP gives important information in terms of temperature change due to annual CH 4 emissions, which is useful when comparing policies that address multiple gases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Targets for Global Climate Policy: An Overview

    Richard S.J. Tol

    2012-01-01

    A survey of the economic impact of climate change and the marginal damage costs shows that carbon dioxide emissions are a negative externality. The estimated Pigou tax and its growth rate are too low to justify the climate policy targets set by political leaders. A lower discount rate or greater concern for the global distribution of income would justify more stringent climate policy, but would imply an overhaul of other public policy. Catastrophic risk justifies more stringent climate policy...

  12. Projected global ground-level ozone impacts on vegetation under different emission and climate scenarios

    P. Sicard

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The impact of ground-level ozone (O3 on vegetation is largely under-investigated at the global scale despite large areas worldwide that are exposed to high surface O3 levels. To explore future potential impacts of O3 on vegetation, we compared historical and projected surface O3 concentrations simulated by six global atmospheric chemistry transport models on the basis of three representative concentration pathways emission scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5. To assess changes in the potential surface O3 threat to vegetation at the global scale, we used the AOT40 metric. Results point out a significant exceedance of AOT40 in comparison with the recommendations of UNECE for the protection of vegetation. In fact, many areas of the Northern Hemisphere show that AOT40-based critical levels will be exceeded by a factor of at least 10 under RCP8.5. Changes in surface O3 by 2100 worldwide range from about +4–5 ppb in the RCP8.5 scenario to reductions of about 2–10 ppb in the most optimistic scenario, RCP2.6. The risk of O3 injury for vegetation, through the potential O3 impact on photosynthetic assimilation, decreased by 61 and 47 % under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, respectively, and increased by 70 % under RCP8.5. Key biodiversity areas in southern and northern Asia, central Africa and North America were identified as being at risk from high O3 concentrations.

  13. Coupling a global climatic model with insurance impact models for flood and drought: an estimation of the financial impact of climate change

    Tinard Pierre

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available CCR, a French reinsurance company mostly involved in natural disasters coverage in France, has been developing tools for the estimation of its exposure to climatic risks for many years. Both a flood and a drought models were developed and calibrated on a large policies and claims database supplied every year with insurers’ data. More recently, CCR has been developing a stochastic approach in order to evaluate its financial exposure to extreme events. A large and realistic event set has been generated by applying extreme value statistic tools to simulate hazard and to estimate, using our impact models, the average annual losses and losses related to different return periods. These event sets have been simulated separately for flood and drought, with a hypothesis of independence, consistent with recent annual damage data. The newest development presented here consists in the use of the ARPEGE–Climat model performed by Météo-France to simulate two 200-years sets of hourly atmospheric time series reflecting both the current climate and the RCP 4.5 climate conditions circa year 2050. These climatic data constitute the input data for the flood and drought impact models to detect events and simulate the associated hazard and damages. Our two main goals are (1 to simulate simultaneously flood and drought events for the same simulated years and (2 to evaluate the financial impact of climate change.

  14. Global climate change

    Gugele, B.; Radunsky, K.; Spangl, W.

    2001-01-01

    In Austria the CO 2 emissions increased by 5.9 % from 1990 to 1999, the other greenhouse gases by 2.6 %. The Federal Ministry for Agriculture, Environment and Water Management, in cooperation with other ministries and the countries, has worked out an action plan for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, to meet the targets of the Kyoto protocol. This study analyzes the greenhouse gas emissions in Austria, in the European Union and globally. The measured emission values throughout Austria and in the other European countries are given in tables, the environmental impact for Austria and globally is discussed, statistical data and time series of the emission sources are given and legal regulations and measures for an effective environmental emission control in Austria, the European Union and worldwide are discussed. In particular the impact of fossil-fuel power plants on the greenhouse gas emissions is analysed. (a.n.)

  15. Global climate feedbacks

    Manowitz, B.

    1990-10-01

    The important physical, chemical, and biological events that affect global climate change occur on a mesoscale -- requiring high spatial resolution for their analysis. The Department of Energy has formulated two major initiatives under the US Global Change Program: ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurements), and CHAMMP (Computer Hardware Advanced Mathematics and Model Physics). ARM is designed to use ground and air-craft based observations to document profiles of atmospheric composition, clouds, and radiative fluxes. With research and models of important physical processes, ARM will delineate the relationships between trace gases, aerosol and cloud structure, and radiative transfer in the atmosphere, and will improve the parameterization of global circulation models. The present GCMs do not model important feedbacks, including those from clouds, oceans, and land processes. The purpose of this workshop is to identify such potential feedbacks, to evaluate the uncertainties in the feedback processes (and, if possible, to parameterize the feedback processes so that they can be treated in a GCM), and to recommend research programs that will reduce the uncertainties in important feedback processes. Individual reports are processed separately for the data bases.

  16. Economic impact of integrated policies to respond to threats of global climate change

    Hanson, D.A.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes the Argonne Multisector Industry Growth Assessment Model (AMIGA), which is a tool for policy impact analysis in the context of the economy as a whole and its individual sectors. AMIGA is currently being used by the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to help understand and evaluate these DOE programs, including more efficient motor vehicle programs. The steps being taken under the US Climate Change Action Plan are being assessed using AMIGA. However, because AMIGA represents prices of goods and services and the wages of workers, AMIGA has the capability to represent incentive approaches to greenhouse gas emissions reductions such as a carbon tax. The ''best'' policy option in a ''second-best'' world may be a mix, or bundle of incentives, voluntary programs, and command-and-control regulations. Detailed reports on model documentation and simulation studies will be available from the author

  17. Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C

    Chen, Yi; Zhang, Zhao; Tao, Fulu

    2018-05-01

    A new temperature goal of holding the increase in global average temperature well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels has been established in the Paris Agreement, which calls for an understanding of climate risk under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate change on growth and productivity of three major crops (i.e. maize, wheat, rice) in China during 2106-2115 in warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0 °C using a method of ensemble simulation with well-validated Model to capture the Crop-Weather relationship over a Large Area (MCWLA) family crop models, their 10 sets of optimal crop model parameters and 70 climate projections from four global climate models. We presented the spatial patterns of changes in crop growth duration, crop yield, impacts of heat and drought stress, as well as crop yield variability and the probability of crop yield decrease. Results showed that climate change would have major negative impacts on crop production, particularly for wheat in north China, rice in south China and maize across the major cultivation areas, due to a decrease in crop growth duration and an increase in extreme events. By contrast, with moderate increases in temperature, solar radiation, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration, agricultural climate resources such as light and thermal resources could be ameliorated, which would enhance canopy photosynthesis and consequently biomass accumulations and yields. The moderate climate change would slightly worsen the maize growth environment but would result in a much more appropriate growth environment for wheat and rice. As a result, wheat, rice and maize yields would change by +3.9 (+8.6), +4.1 (+9.4) and +0.2 % (-1.7 %), respectively, in a warming scenario of 1.5 °C (2.0 °C). In general, the warming scenarios would bring more opportunities than risks for crop development and food

  18. The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector

    Mercure, J.-F.; Pollitt, H.; Chewpreecha, U.; Salas, P.; Foley, A.M.; Holden, P.B.; Edwards, N.R.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of climate policy instruments for the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector in a non-equilibrium economic and technology diffusion perspective. Energy markets are driven by innovation, path-dependent technology choices and diffusion. However, conventional optimisation models lack detail on these aspects and have limited ability to address the effectiveness of policy interventions because they do not represent decision-making. As a result, known effects of technology lock-ins are liable to be underestimated. In contrast, our approach places investor decision-making at the core of the analysis and investigates how it drives the diffusion of low-carbon technology in a highly disaggregated, hybrid, global macroeconometric model, FTT:Power-E3MG. Ten scenarios to 2050 of the electricity sector in 21 regions exploring combinations of electricity policy instruments are analysed, including their climate impacts. We show that in a diffusion and path-dependent perspective, the impact of combinations of policies does not correspond to the sum of impacts of individual instruments: synergies exist between policy tools. We argue that the carbon price required to break the current fossil technology lock-in can be much lower when combined with other policies, and that a 90% decarbonisation of the electricity sector by 2050 is affordable without early scrapping. - Highlights: • Policy scenarios for decarbonising of the global electricity sector by 90%. • Strong synergies exist between different energy policy instruments. • Carbon pricing not a sufficient policy instrument for large emissions reductions. • Improved agent behaviour assumptions for energy modelling beyond cost-optimisation

  19. Leachate pollution management to overcome global climate change impact in Piyungan Landfill, Indonesia

    Harjito; Suntoro; Gunawan, T.; Maskuri, M.

    2018-03-01

    Environmental problems associated with the landfill system are generated by domestic waste landfills, especially those with open dumping systems. In these systems, waste degrades and produces some gases, namely methane gas (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2), which can cause global climate change. This research aimed at identifying the areas that experience groundwater pollution and the spread pattern of leachate movement to the vicinity as well as to develop a leachate management model. The Electricity Resistivity Tomography (ERT) survey is deployed to assess the distribution of electrical resistivity in the polluted areas. In this study, the groundwater contamination is at a very low in the aquifer zone, i.e., 3-9 Ωm. It is caused by the downward migration of leachate to water table that raises the ion concentration of groundwater. These ions will increase the electrical conductivity (EC), i.e., up to 1,284 μmhos/cm, and decrease the electrical resistivity. The leachate spreads westward and northward at a depth of 6-17 m (aquifer) with a thickness of pollution between 4 and11 m.The recommended landfill management model involves the installation of rainwater drainage, use of cover and baseliner made of waterproof materials, and massive waste treatment.

  20. Global climate change: impact of diurnal temperature range on mortality in Guangzhou, China.

    Yang, Jun; Liu, Hua-Zhang; Ou, Chun-Quan; Lin, Guo-Zhen; Zhou, Qin; Shen, Gi-Chuan; Chen, Ping-Yan; Guo, Yuming

    2013-04-01

    Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important meteorological indicator associated with global climate change, but little is known about the effects of DTR on mortality. We examined the effects of DTR on cause-/age-/education-specific mortality in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in China during 2003-2010. A quasi-Poisson regression model combined with distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the effects of DTR, after controlling for daily mean temperature, air pollutants, season and day of the week. A 1 °C increase in DTR at lag 0-4 days was associated with a 0.47% (95% confidence interval: 0.01%-0.93%) increase in non-accidental mortality. Stroke mortality was most sensitive to DTR. Female, the elderly and those with low education were more susceptible to DTR than male, the youth and those with high education, respectively. Our findings suggest that vulnerable subpopulations should pay more attention to protect themselves from unstable daily weather. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Energy Budget of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

    Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The annual energy budget of the Arctic Ocean is characterized by a net heat loss at the air-sea interface that is balanced by oceanic heat transport into the Arctic. The energy loss at the air-sea interface is due to the combined effects of radiative, sensible, and latent heat fluxes. The inflow of heat by the ocean can be divided into two components: the transport of water masses of different temperatures between the Arctic and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the export of sea ice, primarily through Fram Strait. Two 150-year simulations (1950-2099) of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. One is a control simulation for the present climate with constant 1950 atmospheric composition, and the other is a transient experiment with observed GHGs from 1950 to 1990 and 0.5% annual compounded increases of CO2 after 1990. For the present climate the model agrees well with observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, atmospheric advective energy transport into the Arctic, and surface air temperature. It also simulates the seasonal cycle and summer increase of cloud cover and the seasonal cycle of sea-ice cover. In addition, the changes in high-latitude surface air temperature and sea-ice cover in the GHG experiment are consistent with observed changes during the last 40 and 20 years, respectively. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that even though the net annual incident solar radiation at the surface decreases by 4.6 W(per square meters) (because of greater cloud cover and increased cloud optical depth), the absorbed solar radiation increases by 2.8 W(per square meters) (because of less sea ice). Increased cloud cover and warmer air also cause increased downward thermal radiation at the surface so that the net radiation into the ocean increases by 5.0 Wm-2. The annual increase in radiation into the ocean, however, is

  2. Potential impacts of global climate change on the hydrology and ecology of ephemeral freshwater systems of the forests of the northeastern United States

    Robert T. Brooks

    2009-01-01

    Global, national, and regional assessments of the potential effects of Global Climate Change (GCC) have been recently released, but not one of these assessments has specifically addressed the critical issue of the potential impacts of GCC on ephemeral freshwater systems (EFS). I suggest that this is a major oversight as EFS occur in various forms across the globe. In...

  3. Spring Indices (SI): National (and Global) Indicators of Climate Impacts on Ecosystems and Society

    Betancourt, J. L.; Schwartz, M. D.; Ault, T. R.; McCabe, G. J.; Macalady, A. K.; Pederson, G. T.; Cook, B. P.; Henebry, G. M.; Moore, D. J.; Enquist, C.

    2011-12-01

    Indicators are vital in everyday life, such as tracking blood pressure to assess your health or monitoring the nation's economy using unemployment rates. Tracking the state of the environment in a uniform and integrated manner requires simple and broadly-applicable indicators of year-to-year variability and change. For example, indices such as the Start of Season (SOS) in remotely-sensed land surface phenology, Center of Mass (CM) in the hydrology of snowfed inland waters, and other biogeophysical metrics are being widely used as metrics of global change in seasonal timing. Here, we present a new, standardized spring index (SSI) that uses only daily minimum and maximum temperatures as input. This builds on an earlier version of the spring indices (SI) for lilac and honeysuckle phenology (first leaf and first flower) that required plant chilling to be satisfied over winter. The SSI tracks the transition from winter to spring by tallying phenologically relevant variables, (such as the number and intensity of warm days and total hours of sunlight) from January 1st onward, while ignoring the chilling requirement. This adjustment allows determination of first leaf and first bloom dates across the entire USA, including southernmost latitudes. Outputs from the new SSI is highly correlated with the earlier version, and both models process weather data into indices directly related to growth and development of many plants. Spatially averaged anomalies of SSI are well correlated with remotely sensed data and phenological observations from a wide variety of trees and shrubs in Europe, China, and North America. An advantage of SSI is that it only "sees" the atmosphere, meaning that it is free of local biological effects. Therefore, it can enhance the ability to identify important relationships between the large-scale climate modes of variability and the index itself, an advantage over other plant-based indices (such as SOS). If the state of these atmospheric modes can be

  4. A new prospect on global environmental problems in the case of climate change: the impacts of strategic complementarity between countries

    Heugues, M.

    2009-06-01

    Among global environmental problems, climate change is one of the most serious. According to nearly all scientists, the roots of the problem is related to the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere and linked with human activities. The global character of this problem turns it into a big challenge. Within a framework of international trade liberalization, the analysis emphasizes the consequences of the inter-dependencies between economic agents, i.e. States, and of their strategic behaviours - when implementing national environmental policy - on natural environment. Starting with a deliberately conventional model and considering that countries' strategy can be complementary when emitting GHG, we bring new results in many respects and with regard to the existing ones. The thesis includes four chapters. The study highlights the impacts of the nature of the inter-dependencies between countries i) on the existence and the properties of equilibrium solutions - first, when no country cooperates and then from a globally optimal point of view -, ii) on the sequence of decisions, i.e. the circumstances under which a leader endogenously emerges when initiating its national environmental policy, iii) on profitability and stability of an international environmental agreement (IEA), iv) on the level of participation to an IEA and on the environmental impact of such a cooperation. A distinct feature of this research is to rely on the theorems of super-modular game theory. (author)

  5. Global Distribution of Solid Ammonium Sulfate Aerosols and their Climate Impact Acting as Ice Nuclei

    Zhou, C.; Penner, J.

    2017-12-01

    Laboratory experiments show that liquid ammonium sulfate particles effloresce when RHw is below 34% to become solid and dissolve when RHw is above 79%. Solid ammonium sulfate aerosols can act as heterogeneous ice nuclei particles (INPs) to form ice particles in deposition mode when the relative humidity over ice is above 120%. In this study we used the coupled IMPACT/CAM5 model to track the efflorescence and deliquescence processes of ammonium sulfate. Results show that about 20% of the total simulated pure sulfate aerosol mass is in the solid state and is mainly distributed in the northern hemisphere (NH) from 50 hPa to 200 hPa. When these solid ammonium sulfate aerosols are allowed to act as ice nuclei particles, they act to increase the ice water path in the NH and reduce ice water path in the tropics. The addition of these particles leads to a positive net radiative effect at the TOA ranging from 0.5-0.9 W/m2 depending on the amounts of other ice nuclei particles (e.g., dust, soot) used in the ice nucleation process. The short-term climate feedback shows that the ITCZ shifts northwards and precipitation increases in the NH. There is also an average warming of 0.05-0.1 K near the surface (at 2 meter) in the NH which is most obvious in the Arctic region.

  6. Global warming and climate change

    1992-10-01

    A panel discussion was held to discuss climate change. Six panelists made presentations that summarized ozone depletion and climate change, discussed global responses, argued against the conventional scientific and policy dogmas concerning climate change, examined the effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton, examined the effects of carbon taxes on Canadian industry and its emissions, and examined the political and strategic aspects of global warming. A question session followed the presentations. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the six presentations

  7. Global change of the climate

    Moharam-nejad, Naser.

    1995-01-01

    Greenhouse effect is defined. greenhouse gases which are capable to produce greenhouse effect is mentioned. The production of greenhouse effects depends on the following factors; The amount of discharge to the atmosphere, Concentration, Life span, stability, Absorption and Emission. The effect of global change of climate on agriculture and living organisms is discussed. Global actions related to climate change and national procedures are described. The aim of climate change convention is given and the important points of convention is also mentioned

  8. Selection of a representative subset of global climate models that captures the profile of regional changes for integrated climate impacts assessment

    Alex C. Ruane

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract We present the Representative Temperature and Precipitation (T&P GCM Subsetting Approach developed within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP to select a practical subset of global climate models (GCMs for regional integrated assessment of climate impacts when resource limitations do not permit the full ensemble of GCMs to be evaluated given the need to also focus on impacts sector and economics models. Subsetting inherently leads to a loss of information but can free up resources to explore important uncertainties in the integrated assessment that would otherwise be prohibitive. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach identifies five individual GCMs that capture a profile of the full ensemble of temperature and precipitation change within the growing season while maintaining information about the probability that basic classes of climate changes (relatively cool/wet, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and hot/dry are projected in the full GCM ensemble. We demonstrate the selection methodology for maize impacts in Ames, Iowa, and discuss limitations and situations when additional information may be required to select representative GCMs. We then classify 29 GCMs over all land areas to identify regions and seasons with characteristic diagonal skewness related to surface moisture as well as extreme skewness connected to snow-albedo feedbacks and GCM uncertainty. Finally, we employ this basic approach to recognize that GCM projections demonstrate coherence across space, time, and greenhouse gas concentration pathway. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach provides a quantitative basis for the determination of useful GCM subsets, provides a practical and coherent approach where previous assessments selected solely on availability of scenarios, and may be extended for application to a range of scales and sectoral impacts.

  9. Potential impacts of wintertime soil moisture anomalies from agricultural irrigation at low latitudes on regional and global climates

    Wey, Hao-Wei; Lo, Min-Hui; Lee, Shih-Yu; Yu, Jin-Yi; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung

    2015-10-01

    Anthropogenic water management can change surface energy budgets and the water cycle. In this study, we focused on impacts of Asian low-latitude irrigation on regional and global climates during boreal wintertime. A state-of-the-art Earth system model is used to simulate the land-air interaction processes affected by irrigation and the consequent responses in atmospheric circulation. Perturbed experiments show that wet soil moisture anomalies at low latitudes can reduce the surface temperature on a continental scale through atmospheric feedback. The intensity of prevailing monsoon circulation becomes stronger because of larger land-sea thermal contrast. Furthermore, anomalous upper level convergence over South Asia and midlatitude climatic changes indicate tropical-extratropical teleconnections. The wintertime Aleutian low is deepened and an anomalous warm surface temperature is found in North America. Previous studies have noted this warming but left it unexplained, and we provide plausible mechanisms for these remote impacts coming from the irrigation over Asian low-latitude regions.

  10. Impact of climate change and variability on the global oceanic sink of CO2

    Le Quéré, Corinne; Takahashi, Taro; Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Rödenbeck, Christian; Sutherland, Stewart C.

    2010-01-01

    About one quarter of the CO2 emitted to the atmosphere by human activities is absorbed annually by the ocean. All the processes that influence the oceanic uptake of CO2 are controlled by climate. Hence changes in climate (both natural and human-induced) are expected to alter the uptake of CO2 by the ocean. However, available information that constrains the direction, magnitude, or rapidity of the response of ocean CO2 to changes in climate is limited. We present an analysis of oceanic CO2 tre...

  11. Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

    2009-01-01

    To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

  12. The impact of global warming on the range distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata.

    Güizado-Rodríguez, Martha Anahí; Ballesteros-Barrera, Claudia; Casas-Andreu, Gustavo; Barradas-Miranda, Victor Luis; Téllez-Valdés, Oswaldo; Salgado-Ugarte, Isaías Hazarmabeth

    2012-12-01

    The ectothermic nature of reptiles makes them especially sensitive to global warming. Although climate change and its implications are a frequent topic of detailed studies, most of these studies are carried out without making a distinction between populations. Here we present the first study of an Aspidoscelis species that evaluates the effects of global warming on its distribution using ecological niche modeling. The aims of our study were (1) to understand whether predicted warmer climatic conditions affect the geographic potential distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata and (2) to identify potential altitudinal changes of these groups under global warming. We used the maximum entropy species distribution model (MaxEnt) to project the potential distributions expected for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080 under a single simulated climatic scenario. Our analysis suggests that some climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata will exhibit reductions and in others expansions in their distribution, with potential upward shifts toward higher elevation in response to climate warming. Different climatic groups were revealed in our analysis that subsequently showed heterogeneous responses to climatic change illustrating the complex nature of species geographic responses to environmental change and the importance of modeling climatic or geographic groups and/or populations instead of the entire species' range treated as a homogeneous entity.

  13. How is the impact of climate change on river flow regimes related to the impact on mean annual runoff? A global-scale analysis

    Döll, Petra; Schmied, Hannes Müller

    2012-01-01

    To assess the impact of climate change on freshwater resources, change in mean annual runoff (MAR) is only a first indicator. In addition, it is necessary to analyze changes of river flow regimes, i.e. changes in the temporal dynamics of river discharge, as these are important for the well-being of humans (e.g. with respect to water supply) and freshwater-dependent biota (e.g. with respect to habitat availability). Therefore, we investigated, in a global-scale hydrological modeling study, the relation between climate-induced changes of MAR and changes of a number of river flow regime indicators, including mean river discharge, statistical low and high flows, and mean seasonal discharge. In addition, we identified, for the first time at the global scale, where flow regime shifts from perennial to intermittent flow regimes (or vice versa) may occur due to climate change. Climate-induced changes of all considered river flow regime indicators (except seasonal river flow changes) broadly follow the spatial pattern of MAR changes. The differences among the computed changes of MAR due to the application of the two climate models are larger than the differences between the change of MAR and the change of the diverse river flow indicators for one climate model. At the sub-basin and grid cell scales, however, there are significant differences between the changes of MAR, mean annual river discharge, and low and high flows. Low flows are projected to be more than halved by the 2050s in almost twice the area as compared to MAR. Similarly, northern hemisphere summer flows decrease more strongly than MAR. Differences between the high emissions scenario A2 (with emissions of 25 Gt C yr −1 in the 2050s) and the low emissions scenario B2 (16 Gt C yr −1 ) are generally small as compared to the differences due to the two climate models. The benefits of avoided emissions are, however, significant in those areas where flows are projected to be more than halved due to climate change

  14. Parameterization of dust emissions in the global atmospheric chemistry-climate model EMAC: impact of nudging and soil properties

    Astitha, M.; Lelieveld, J.; Kader, M. Abdel; Pozzer, A.; de Meij, A.

    2012-01-01

    Airborne desert dust influences radiative transfer, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, as well as nutrient transport and deposition. It directly and indirectly affects climate on regional and global scales. Two versions of a parameterization scheme to compute desert dust emissions are incorporated into the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy2.41 Atmospheric Chemistry). One uses a global...

  15. Downscaling a Global Climate Model to Simulate Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Regional and Urban Air Quality

    Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A. P.; Liu, P.; Tsigaridis, K.; Hu, Y.; Nenes, A.; Russell, A. G.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with WRF to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the continental United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12km by 12km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major U.S. cities. The high resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the U.S. during fall (Western U.S., Texas, Northeastern, and Southeastern U.S), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the U.S. which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

  16. Russia and Global Climate Politics

    Tynkkynen, Nina

    2014-09-01

    Russia, as the fourth largest greenhouse-gas emitter in the world, and a major supplier of fossil fuels causing these emissions, played a decisive role in the enforcement of the Kyoto Protocol, the main instrument of global climate policy so far. Domestically, serious political measures to combat climate change have yet to be taken. Thus, Russia's performance in global climate politics indicates that goals other than genuinely environmental ones, such as political or economic benefits, are the main motivation of Russia's participation. Also, Russia's national pride and its status as a great power are at stake here. This paper scrutinizes Russia's stance in global climate politics, offering an overview of Russia's engagement in international climate politics and its domestic climate policy. In the second part of the paper, Russia's engagement in global environmental politics is discussed in the context of Russia's world status and the great-power concept. Accordingly, the paper aims to shed light on how and why Russia behaves in global climate politics in the way it does. This may be of interest to actors in international environmental politics in general, and relevant to future climate negotiations in particular. (author)

  17. Quantification of physical and economic impacts of climate change on public infrastructure in Alaska and benefits of global greenhouse gas mitigation

    Melvin, A. M.; Larsen, P.; Boehlert, B.; Martinich, J.; Neumann, J.; Chinowsky, P.; Schweikert, A.; Strzepek, K.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change poses many risks and challenges for the Arctic and sub-Arctic, including threats to infrastructure. The safety and stability of infrastructure in this region can be impacted by many factors including increased thawing of permafrost soils, reduced coastline protection due to declining arctic sea ice, and changes in inland flooding. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is coordinating an effort to quantify physical and economic impacts of climate change on public infrastructure across the state of Alaska and estimate how global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation may avoid or reduce these impacts. This research builds on the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project developed for the contiguous U.S., which is described in an EPA report released in June 2015. We are using a multi-model analysis focused primarily on the impacts of changing permafrost, coastal erosion, and inland flooding on a range of infrastructure types, including transportation (e.g. roads, airports), buildings and harbors, energy sources and transmission, sewer and water systems, and others. This analysis considers multiple global GHG emission scenarios ranging from a business as usual future to significant global action. These scenarios drive climate projections through 2100 spanning a range of outcomes to capture variability amongst climate models. Projections are being combined with a recently developed public infrastructure database and integrated into a version of the Infrastructure Planning Support System (IPSS) we are modifying for use in the Arctic and sub-Arctic region. The IPSS tool allows for consideration of both adaptation and reactive responses to climate change. Results of this work will address a gap in our understanding of climate change impacts in Alaska, provide estimates of the physical and economic damages we may expect with and without global GHG mitigation, and produce important insights about infrastructure vulnerabilities in response to

  18. The withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Agreement and its impact on global climate change governance

    Yong-Xiang Zhang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The global community has prepared for the withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Agreement since Donald Trump was elected as the president of the U.S. However, Trump's formal declaration of withdrawal still caused worldwide reaction. Trump will use the withdrawal to build his political reputation and to renegotiate the Paris Agreement despite its negative effects on the political credibility, international relationships, and potential long-term economic growth of the U.S. In general, the withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Agreement will not change the development of low-carbon technologies and the transformation trend of the global climate governance regime. However, the long-term goals and international cooperation on climate change will be affected by budget cuts in American climate change research and the cancelation of donations from the multilateral environmental fund of the U.S. If the Paris Agreement is renegotiated, the common but differentiated principle of responsibility of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will be challenged again. Nevertheless, climate change governance remains a main theme of future sustainable development. Instead of national governments, local governments and non-governmental organizations will develop strategies for technical innovation and emphasize pragmatic cooperation, thus expanding their roles in climate change governance. The capacity building on climate change research and public awareness should be enhanced as a long-term objective of global climate change governance.

  19. Contribution of the G20 economies to the global impact of the Paris agreement climate proposals

    den Elzen, Michel; Admiraal, Annemiek; Roelfsema, Mark; van Soest, Heleen; Hof, Andries F.; Forsell, Nicklas

    2016-01-01

    By 15 December 2015, 187 countries had submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) summarising their climate actions after 2020 in the context of the Paris Agreement. We used a unified framework to assess the mitigation components of INDCs covering 105 countries

  20. Climate Impacts in Europe Under +1.5°C Global Warming

    Jacob, Daniela; Kotova, Lola; Teichmann, Claas; Sobolowski, Stefan P.; Vautard, Robert; Donnelly, Chantal; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Grillakis, Manolis G.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Damm, Andrea; Sakalli, Abdulla; Vliet, van Michelle T.H.

    2018-01-01

    The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change aims not only at avoiding +2°C warming (and even limit the temperature increase further to +1.5°C), but also sets long-term goals to guide mitigation. Therefore, the best available science is required to inform

  1. Does climate directly influence NPP globally?

    Chu, Chengjin; Bartlett, Megan; Wang, Youshi; He, Fangliang; Weiner, Jacob; Chave, Jérôme; Sack, Lawren

    2016-01-01

    The need for rigorous analyses of climate impacts has never been more crucial. Current textbooks state that climate directly influences ecosystem annual net primary productivity (NPP), emphasizing the urgent need to monitor the impacts of climate change. A recent paper challenged this consensus, arguing, based on an analysis of NPP for 1247 woody plant communities across global climate gradients, that temperature and precipitation have negligible direct effects on NPP and only perhaps have indirect effects by constraining total stand biomass (Mtot ) and stand age (a). The authors of that study concluded that the length of the growing season (lgs ) might have a minor influence on NPP, an effect they considered not to be directly related to climate. In this article, we describe flaws that affected that study's conclusions and present novel analyses to disentangle the effects of stand variables and climate in determining NPP. We re-analyzed the same database to partition the direct and indirect effects of climate on NPP, using three approaches: maximum-likelihood model selection, independent-effects analysis, and structural equation modeling. These new analyses showed that about half of the global variation in NPP could be explained by Mtot combined with climate variables and supported strong and direct influences of climate independently of Mtot , both for NPP and for net biomass change averaged across the known lifetime of the stands (ABC = average biomass change). We show that lgs is an important climate variable, intrinsically correlated with, and contributing to mean annual temperature and precipitation (Tann and Pann ), all important climatic drivers of NPP. Our analyses provide guidance for statistical and mechanistic analyses of climate drivers of ecosystem processes for predictive modeling and provide novel evidence supporting the strong, direct role of climate in determining vegetation productivity at the global scale. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Impact of social media as an instructional component on content knowledge, attitudes, and public engagement related to global climate change

    Greenberg, Sallie E.

    Social media (SM) are considered important avenues to reach citizens and engage them in social change. Given the widespread use of SM and their potential to enhance communication, they could also have significant influence when used as an educational tool. Educators are exploring whether classroom SM use has instructional benefits, such as enhancing interactivity and engagement. It is critical to understand the potential of SM for creating meaningful learning environments and public engagement pathways. Much work remains to understand the use of SM in this context and how to use them effectively. This study draws on active learning theory to examine the impact of SM as an instructional component with community college students learning to make connections among science, social responsibility, and global understanding in an environmental biology course (the Course). Using global climate change as a theme, the Course included a Facebook instructional component. A pretest--posttest, nonrandomized comparison group design was used to measure the impact of Facebook as an integrated component of the Course. The treatment and comparison groups were determined to be comparable based on demographics, access and ownership of digital devices, and SM use despite non-random assignment. No statistically significant differences were found between groups on these factors. The intervention consisted of semester-long required use of Facebook for the treatment group. The impact of the SM intervention was measured in three areas: (a) content knowledge, (b) attitudes toward climate change, and (c) public engagement actions and intentions to act. At the conclusion of the Course, no discernable difference was measured in content knowledge gains between the two groups. However, students who used Facebook experienced statistically significant differences in attitude, becoming increasingly concerned about global climate change. The comparison group demonstrated statistically significant

  3. The Ecological consequences of global climate change

    Woodward, F. I

    1992-01-01

    ... & land use - modeling potential responses of vegetation to global climate change - effects of climatic change on population dynamics of crop pests - responses of soils to climate change - predicting...

  4. Costs of global climate protection

    Krause, F.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses the cost implications of the air pollution abatement recommendations contained in a recently published IPSEP (International Project for Sustainable Energy Paths) study on the feasibility of the abatement of carbon dioxide emissions deemed significantly responsible for the greenhouse effect and its associated negative impacts on this planet's climatic equilibrium. The air pollution abatement strategies are to be enforced in five highly industrialized European countries - Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy and Holland. The study's overall results indicate the feasibility of 50% reductions in carbon dioxide emissions within the next 30 years even with a more than doubling of GNP's and a contemporaneous phase-out of nuclear power production, and all this taking place in a cost effective way and with increased employment. In addition, IPSEP's report states that the implementation of effective program management strategies would bolster Western Europe's competitiveness on a global scale

  5. Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project

    Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.

    2011-12-01

    In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region

  6. Climate Impacts of CALIPSO-Guided Corrections to Black Carbon Aerosol Vertical Distributions in a Global Climate Model

    Kovilakam, Mahesh; Mahajan, Salil; Saravanan, R.; Chang, Ping

    2017-01-01

    Here, we alleviate the bias in the tropospheric vertical distribution of black carbon aerosols (BC) in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) using the Cloud-Aerosol and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO)-derived vertical profiles. A suite of sensitivity experiments are conducted with 1x, 5x, and 10x the present-day model estimated BC concentration climatology, with (corrected, CC) and without (uncorrected, UC) CALIPSO-corrected BC vertical distribution. The globally averaged top of the atmosphere radiative flux perturbation of CC experiments is ~8–50% smaller compared to uncorrected (UC) BC experiments largely due to an increase in low-level clouds. The global average surface temperature increases, the global average precipitation decreases, and the ITCZ moves northward with the increase in BC radiative forcing, irrespective of the vertical distribution of BC. Further, tropical expansion metrics for the poleward extent of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley cell (HC) indicate that simulated HC expansion is not sensitive to existing model biases in BC vertical distribution.

  7. Global Climatic Change.

    Houghton, Richard A.; Woodwell, George M.

    1989-01-01

    Cites some of the evidence which suggests that the production of carbon dioxide and methane from human activities has begun to change the climate. Describes some measures which should be taken to stop or slow this progression. (RT)

  8. Molecular mechanisms responsive to dehydration may impact the invasiveness of perennial weeds under global climate change

    Leafy spurge is an invasive perennial weed in the great plains of the US and Canada. The ability of this herbaceous weed to regenerate new shoot growth from an abundance of crown and root buds after severe abiotic stress is critical for survival. Due to its adaptable and aggressive nature, global cl...

  9. Impact and prevention on global warming

    Park, Heon Ryeol

    2003-11-01

    This book deals with impact and prevention on global warming with eight chapters, which introduce the change after the earth was born and natural environment, how is global atmospheric environment under the control of radiant energy? What does global warming look with the earth history like? What's the status of global warming so far? How does climate change happen? What is the impact by global warming and climate change and for preservation of global environment of 21 century with consumption of energy, measure and prospect on global warming. It has reference, index and three appendixes.

  10. Global climate change and California's water resources

    Vaux, H.J. Jr.

    1991-01-01

    This chapter records the deliberations of a group of California water experts about answers to these and other questions related to the impact of global warming on California's water resources. For the most part, those participating in the deliberations believe that the current state of scientific knowledge about global warming and its impacts on water resources is insufficient to permit hard distinctions to be made between short- and long-term changes. consequently, the ideas discussed here are based on a number of assumptions about specific climatic manifestations of global warming in California, as described earlier in this volume. Ultimately, however, effective public responses to forestall the potentially costly impacts of global climate change will probably depend upon the credible validation of the prospects of global climate warming. This chapter contains several sections. First, the likely effects of global warming on California's water resources and water-supply systems are identified and analyzed. Second, possible responses to mitigate these effects are enumerated and discussed. Third, the major policy issues are identified. A final section lists recommendations for action and major needs for information

  11. Soil carbon model alternatives for ECHAM5/JSBACH climate model: Evaluation and impacts on global carbon cycle estimates

    Thum, T.; Raisanen, P.; Sevanto, S.

    2011-01-01

    The response of soil organic carbon to climate change might lead to significant feedbacks affecting global warming. This response can be studied by coupled climate-carbon cycle models but so far the description of soil organic carbon cycle in these models has been quite simple. In this work we used...... the coupled climate-carbon cycle model ECHAM5/JSBACH (European Center/Hamburg Model 5/Jena Scheme for Biosphere-Atmosphere Coupling in Hamburg) with two different soil carbon modules, namely (1) the original soil carbon model of JSBACH called CBALANCE and (2) a new soil carbon model Yasso07, to study...... the interaction between climate variability and soil organic carbon. Equivalent ECHAM5/JSBACH simulations were conducted using both soil carbon models, with freely varying atmospheric CO2 for the last 30 years (1977-2006). In this study, anthropogenic CO2 emissions and ocean carbon cycle were excluded. The new...

  12. The impact of surgery on global climate: a carbon footprinting study of operating theatres in three health systems.

    MacNeill, Andrea J; Lillywhite, Robert; Brown, Carl J

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is a major global public health priority. The delivery of health-care services generates considerable greenhouse gas emissions. Operating theatres are a resource-intensive subsector of health care, with high energy demands, consumable throughput, and waste volumes. The environmental impacts of these activities are generally accepted as necessary for the provision of quality care, but have not been examined in detail. In this study, we estimate the carbon footprint of operating theatres in hospitals in three health systems. Surgical suites at three academic quaternary-care hospitals were studied over a 1-year period in Canada (Vancouver General Hospital, VGH), the USA (University of Minnesota Medical Center, UMMC), and the UK (John Radcliffe Hospital, JRH). Greenhouse gas emissions were estimated using primary activity data and applicable emissions factors, and reported according to the Greenhouse Gas Protocol. Site greenhouse gas evaluations were done between Jan 1 and Dec 31, 2011. The surgical suites studied were found to have annual carbon footprints of 5 187 936 kg of CO 2 equivalents (CO 2 e) at JRH, 4 181 864 kg of CO 2 e at UMMC, and 3 218 907 kg of CO 2 e at VGH. On a per unit area basis, JRH had the lowest carbon intensity at 1702 kg CO 2 e/m 2 , compared with 1951 kg CO 2 e/m 2 at VGH and 2284 kg CO 2 e/m 2 at UMMC. Based on case volumes at all three sites, VGH had the lowest carbon intensity per operation at 146 kg CO 2 e per case compared with 173 kg CO 2 e per case at JRH and 232 kg CO 2 e per case at UMMC. Anaesthetic gases and energy consumption were the largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Preferential use of desflurane resulted in a ten-fold difference in anaesthetic gas emissions between hospitals. Theatres were found to be three to six times more energy-intense than the hospital as a whole, primarily due to heating, ventilation, and air conditioning requirements. Overall, the carbon footprint of surgery in the

  13. The economic impact of global climate change on Mediterranean rangeland ecosystems. A Space-for-Time approach

    Fleischer, Aliza; Sternberg, Marcelo

    2006-01-01

    Global Climate Change (GCC) can bring about changes in ecosystems and consequently in their services value. Here we show that the urban population in Israel values the green landscape of rangelands in the mesic Mediterranean climate region and is willing to pay for preserving it in light of the expected increasing aridity conditions in this region. Their valuation of the landscape is higher than that of the grazing services these rangelands provide for livestock growers. These results stem from a Time-for-Space approach with which we were able to measure changes in biomass production and rainfall at four experimental sites along an aridity gradient. (author)

  14. Designing global climate and atmospheric chemistry simulations for 1 and 10 km diameter asteroid impacts using the properties of ejecta from the K-Pg impact

    O. B. Toon

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available About 66 million years ago, an asteroid about 10 km in diameter struck the Yucatan Peninsula creating the Chicxulub crater. The crater has been dated and found to be coincident with the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K-Pg mass extinction event, one of six great mass extinctions in the last 600 million years. This event precipitated one of the largest episodes of rapid climate change in Earth's history, yet no modern three-dimensional climate calculations have simulated the event. Similarly, while there is an ongoing effort to detect asteroids that might hit Earth and to develop methods to stop them, there have been no modern calculations of the sizes of asteroids whose impacts on land would cause devastating effects on Earth. Here, we provide the information needed to initialize such calculations for the K-Pg impactor and for a 1 km diameter impactor. There is considerable controversy about the details of the events that followed the Chicxulub impact. We proceed through the data record in the order of confidence that a climatically important material was present in the atmosphere. The climatic importance is roughly proportional to the optical depth of the material. Spherules with diameters of several hundred microns are found globally in an abundance that would have produced an atmospheric layer with an optical depth around 20, yet their large sizes would only allow them to stay airborne for a few days. They were likely important for triggering global wildfires. Soot, probably from global or near-global wildfires, is found globally in an abundance that would have produced an optical depth near 100, which would effectively prevent sunlight from reaching the surface. Nanometer-sized iron particles are also present globally. Theory suggests these particles might be remnants of the vaporized asteroid and target that initially remained as vapor rather than condensing on the hundred-micron spherules when they entered the atmosphere. If present in the

  15. Developing a system of multi-evaluation of the impact of global climate change on human health in Russia

    Granberg, I.; Golitsyn, G.; Istoshin, N.; Efimenko, N.; Alekhin, A.; Rogoza, A.; Povolotskaya, N.; Artamonova, M.; Pogarski, F.

    2009-04-01

    High people sensitivity to weather and space factors, particularly encumbered by various illnesses, was from time immemorial. Now, in terms of global climate change, accompanied by frequent and severe restructuring of atmospheric processes, thermal anomalies, droughts, environmental change through meteorological and heliogeophysical factors affect the human body particularly intense, causing adverse effects to health. There are currently beginning to develop methods for evaluating multifactor of the external environment and prevention of their negative influence on people. For those sensitive to such influences, with adverse weather in response to sudden changes in weather factors pathological of meteopathic reactions may arise. In doing so, even among healthy individuals it is up to 35-45% of meteosensitive. Meteopathic reactions lead to the appearance and progression of pathological disorders, and the associated increase in chronic diseases. In this connection the tasks solution related to assessing the impact of meteorological and climatic variations of different space-time scale on the health of the population of Russia becomes extremely important, especially for the people with cardiovascular disease. This is confirmed by as clinical observations, and the state of vital systems of meteosensitive people. Based on the results of comprehensive research of Pyatigorsk State Research Institute of Curortology (PSRIC), the A. M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP), and Hydrometeocenter of Russia in the region of Caucasian Mineral Waters (CMW) by scientists of IAP and PSRIC there was established a system of Operational Medical Weather Forecast (OMWF), which aims to have possibility on time to host events for the prevention of meteopathic reactions of people with high meteodependence. Also, we have introduced improved definition of Weather Pathogenicity Index (WPI) for medical weather forecast. As a basis of medical weather

  16. The effects of global climate change on Southeast Asia: A survey of likely impacts and problems of adaptation

    Njoto, Sukrisno; Howe, Charles W.

    1991-01-01

    Study results indicate the likelihood of significant net damages from climate change, in particular damages from sea-level rise and higher temperatures that seem unlikely to be offset by favorable shifts in precipitation and carbon dioxide. Also indicated was the importance of better climate models, in particular models that can calculate climate change on a regional scale appropriate to policy-making. In spite of this potential for damage, there seems to be a low level of awareness and concern, probably caused by the higher priority given to economic growth and reinforced by the great uncertainty in the forecasts. The common property nature of global environment systems also leads to a feeling of helplessness on the part of country governments.

  17. Global impact of a climate treaty if the Human Development Index replaces GDP as a welfare proxy

    van den Bergh, Jeroen; Botzen, W.J.W.

    2018-01-01

    This study explores the implications of shifting the narrative of climate policy evaluation from one of costs/benefits or economic growth to a message of improving social welfare. Focusing on the costs of mitigation and the associated impacts on gross domestic product (GDP) may translate into a

  18. Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impacts-a snapshot of dissonant ambitions

    Rogelj, Joeri; Chen, Claudine; Nabel, Julia; Hare, William; Markmann, Kathleen; Meinshausen, Malte; Macey, Kirsten; Schaeffer, Michiel; Hoehne, Niklas; Krogh Andersen, Katrine

    2010-01-01

    This analysis of the Copenhagen Accord evaluates emission reduction pledges by individual countries against the Accord's climate-related objectives. Probabilistic estimates of the climatic consequences for a set of resulting multi-gas scenarios over the 21st century are calculated with a reduced complexity climate model, yielding global temperature increase and atmospheric CO 2 and CO 2 -equivalent concentrations. Provisions for banked surplus emission allowances and credits from land use, land-use change and forestry are assessed and are shown to have the potential to lead to significant deterioration of the ambition levels implied by the pledges in 2020. This analysis demonstrates that the Copenhagen Accord and the pledges made under it represent a set of dissonant ambitions. The ambition level of the current pledges for 2020 and the lack of commonly agreed goals for 2050 place in peril the Accord's own ambition: to limit global warming to below 2 deg. C, and even more so for 1.5 deg. C, which is referenced in the Accord in association with potentially strengthening the long-term temperature goal in 2015. Due to the limited level of ambition by 2020, the ability to limit emissions afterwards to pathways consistent with either the 2 or 1.5 deg. C goal is likely to become less feasible.

  19. State of the Climate - Global Hazards

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The State of the Climate is a collection of periodic summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale. The State of the Climate...

  20. State of the Climate - Global Analysis

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The State of the Climate is a collection of periodic summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale. The State of the Climate...

  1. The Impact of Shale Gas on the Cost and Feasibility of Meeting Climate Targets—A Global Energy System Model Analysis and an Exploration of Uncertainties

    Sheridan Few

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available There exists considerable uncertainty over both shale and conventional gas resource availability and extraction costs, as well as the fugitive methane emissions associated with shale gas extraction and its possible role in mitigating climate change. This study uses a multi-region energy system model, TIAM (TIMES integrated assessment model, to consider the impact of a range of conventional and shale gas cost and availability assessments on mitigation scenarios aimed at achieving a limit to global warming of below 2 °C in 2100, with a 50% likelihood. When adding shale gas to the global energy mix, the reduction to the global energy system cost is relatively small (up to 0.4%, and the mitigation cost increases by 1%–3% under all cost assumptions. The impact of a “dash for shale gas”, of unavailability of carbon capture and storage, of increased barriers to investment in low carbon technologies, and of higher than expected leakage rates, are also considered; and are each found to have the potential to increase the cost and reduce feasibility of meeting global temperature goals. We conclude that the extraction of shale gas is not likely to significantly reduce the effort required to mitigate climate change under globally coordinated action, but could increase required mitigation effort if not handled sufficiently carefully.

  2. Holocene environmental changes recorded in Dicksonfjorden and Woodfjorden, Svalbard: impacts of global climate changes in a glacial-marine system

    Joo, Y. J.; Nam, S. I.; Son, Y. J.; Forwick, M.

    2017-12-01

    Fjords in the Svalbard archipelago are characterized by an extreme environmental gradient between 1) the glacial system affected by tidewater glaciers and seasonal sea ice inside the fjords and 2) the warm Atlantic Water intrusion by the West Spitsbergen Current from open ocean. As sediment is largely supplied from the terrestrial source area exposed along the steep slopes of the fjords, the changes in the surface processes affected by glaciers are likely preserved in the sediments in the inner fjords. On the other hand, variations in the influence of the warm Atlantic Water in the marine realm (e.g. marine productivity) can be archived in the sediment deposited in the vicinity of the entrance to the fjords. Since the last deglaciation of the Svalbard-Barents ice sheet ( 13000 yrs BP), the Svalbard fjords have faced dramatic climate changes including the early Holocene Climate Optimum (HCO) and subsequent cooling that eventually led to the current cold and dry climate. We investigate the Holocene environmental changes in both terrestrial and marine realms based on stable isotopic and inorganic geochemical analyses of sediments deposited in Dicksonfjorden and Woodfjorden in the western and northern Spitsbergen, respectively. The two fjords are expected to provide intriguing information regarding how terrestrial and marine realms of the Arctic fjords system responded to regional and global climate changes. Being a branch of the larger Isfjorden, Dicksonfjorden penetrates deeply to the land, whereas Woodfjorden is rather directly connected to the open ocean. Accordingly, the results suggest that the Dicksonfjorden sediment records mainly terrestrial signals with marked fluctuations in sediment composition that coincide with major climate changes (e.g. HCO). On the contrary, the two Woodfjorden cores collected from different parts of the fjord exhibit contrasting results, likely illustrating differing response of terrestrial and marine realms to the climate changes in

  3. Climate Change and Global Wine Quality

    Jones, G.V. [Department of Geography, Southern Oregon University, 1250 Siskiyou Blvd, Ashland, Oregon, 97520 (United States); White, M.A. [Department of Aquatic, Watershed, and Earth Resources, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, 84322 (United States); Cooper, O.R. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences CIRES, University of Colorado/NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, 80305 (United States); Storchmann, K. [Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, 06520 (United States)

    2005-12-01

    From 1950 to 1999 the majority of the world's highest quality wine-producing regions experienced growing season warming trends. Vintage quality ratings during this same time period increased significantly while year-to-year variation declined. While improved winemaking knowledge and husbandry practices contributed to the better vintages it was shown that climate had, and will likely always have, a significant role in quality variations. This study revealed that the impacts of climate change are not likely to be uniform across all varieties and regions. Currently, many European regions appear to be at or near their optimum growing season temperatures, while the relationships are less defined in the New World viticulture regions. For future climates, model output for global wine producing regions predicts an average warming of 2C in the next 50 yr. For regions producing high-quality grapes at the margins of their climatic limits, these results suggest that future climate change will exceed a climatic threshold such that the ripening of balanced fruit required for existing varieties and wine styles will become progressively more difficult. In other regions, historical and predicted climate changes could push some regions into more optimal climatic regimes for the production of current varietals. In addition, the warmer conditions could lead to more poleward locations potentially becoming more conducive to grape growing and wine production.

  4. Climate. Meeting the challenge of global warming

    Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Mann, Michael; Greene, Charles; Salas y Melia, David; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Journe, Venance; Guegan, Jean-Francois; ); Bopp, Laurent; Magnan, Alexandre; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre; Bally, Rene; Duponnois, Robin; Giodda, Alain; MOATTI, JEAN-PAUL; Recio, Carlos; Santana, Luis; Hulot, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Meritet, Sophie; Jacobson, Mark; Delucchi, Mark; Julliard, Romain; Balibar, Sebastien; Prevot, Anne-Caroline; Colleony, Agathe; Mangin, Loic

    2015-01-01

    The contributions of this publication first discuss and comment the cost of inaction in front of global warming. The authors deny the existence of a climate pause, explain the existence of harsh winters in Europe in the context of global warming, outline that models developed and used in the 1960 already predicted the present trend, discuss the complex relationships between climate change and health, outline the threats on the oceans (acidification, impact on marine species, level rise) and consequently on mankind. A second set of contributions addresses opportunities to be implemented now: to plant trees along the Sahara, the example of an ecologic island (El Hierro, Canaries Islands), the commitment of communities, associations and citizens, the necessary energy transition, innovation at the service of climate, the role of finances and investments. The third set of contributions addresses perspectives: to do without fossil energies, how to reduce the impact of global warming in cities (by planting trees and closing shutters), the emergence of participative science, arguments against climate sceptics, a difficult change of behaviours

  5. Inadvertent weather modification urban areas - lessons for global climate change

    Changnon, S A [Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL (USA)

    1992-05-01

    Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the USA's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multidisciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioural implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally.

  6. Inadvertent weather modification urban areas - lessons for global climate change

    Changnon, S.A.

    1992-01-01

    Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the USA's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multidisciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioural implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally

  7. Can warming particles enter global climate discussions?

    Bond, Tami C

    2007-01-01

    'Soot' or 'black carbon', which comes from incomplete combustion, absorbs light and warms the atmosphere. Although there have been repeated suggestions that reduction of black carbon could be a viable part of decreasing global warming, it has not yet been considered when choosing actions to reduce climatic impact. In this paper, I examine four conceptual barriers to the consideration of aerosols in global agreements. I conclude that some of the major objections to considering aerosols under hemispheric or global agreements are illusory because: (1) a few major sources will be addressed by local regulations, but the remainder may not be addressed by traditional air quality management; (2) climate forcing by carbon particles is not limited to 'hot spots'-about 90% of it occurs at relatively low concentrations; (3) while aerosol science is complex, the most salient characteristics of aerosol behavior can be condensed into tractable metrics including, but not limited to, the global warming potential; (4) despite scientific uncertainties, reducing all aerosols from major sources of black carbon will reduce direct climate warming with a very high probability. This change in climate forcing accounts for at least 25% of the accompanying CO 2 forcing with significant probability (25% for modern diesel engines, 90% for superemitting diesels, and 55% for cooking with biofuels). Thus, this fraction of radiative forcing should not be ignored

  8. Climate Science's Globally Distributed Infrastructure

    Williams, D. N.

    2016-12-01

    The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) is primarily funded by the Department of Energy's (DOE's) Office of Science (the Office of Biological and Environmental Research [BER] Climate Data Informatics Program and the Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research Next Generation Network for Science Program), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF), the European Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System Modeling (IS-ENES), and the Australian National University (ANU). Support also comes from other U.S. federal and international agencies. The federation works across multiple worldwide data centers and spans seven international network organizations to provide users with the ability to access, analyze, and visualize data using a globally federated collection of networks, computers, and software. Its architecture employs a series of geographically distributed peer nodes that are independently administered and united by common federation protocols and application programming interfaces (APIs). The full ESGF infrastructure has now been adopted by multiple Earth science projects and allows access to petabytes of geophysical data, including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP; output used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports), multiple model intercomparison projects (MIPs; endorsed by the World Climate Research Programme [WCRP]), and the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME; ESGF is included in the overarching ACME workflow process to store model output). ESGF is a successful example of integration of disparate open-source technologies into a cohesive functional system that serves the needs the global climate science community. Data served by ESGF includes not only model output but also observational data from satellites and instruments, reanalysis, and generated images.

  9. Impact of Climate Conditions on Occupational Health and Related Economic Losses: A New Feature of Global and Urban Health in the Context of Climate Change.

    Kjellstrom, Tord

    2016-03-01

    One feature of climate change is the increasing heat exposure in many workplaces where efficient cooling systems cannot be applied. Excessive heat exposure is a particular problem for working people because of the internal heat production when muscle work is carried out. The physiological basis for severe heat stroke, other clinical effects, and heat exhaustion is well known. One feature of this health effect of excessive workplace heat exposure is reduced work capacity, and new research has started to quantify this effect in the context of climate change. Current climate conditions in tropical and subtropical parts of the world are already so hot during the hot seasons that occupational health effects occur and work capacity for many working people is affected. The Hothaps-Soft database and software andClimateCHIP.orgwebsite make it possible to rapidly produce estimates of local heat conditions and trends. The results can be mapped to depict the spatial distribution of workplace heat stress. In South-East Asia as much as 15% to 20% of annual work hours may already be lost in heat-exposed jobs, and this may double by 2050 as global climate change progresses. By combining heat exposure data and estimates of the economic consequences, the vulnerability of many low- and middle-income countries is evident. The annual cost of reduced labor productivity at country level already in 2030 can be several percent of GDP, which means billions of US dollars even for medium-size countries. The results provide new arguments for effective climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and preventive actions in all countries. © 2015 APJPH.

  10. Impact of global climate change and fire on the occurrence and function of understorey legumes in forest ecosystems

    Reverchon, Frederique; Xu, Zhihong; Blumfield, Timothy J.; Chen, Chengrong; Abdullah, Kadum M. [Griffith Univ., Nathan, QLD (Australia). Environmental Futures Centre and School of Biomolecular and Physical Sciences

    2012-02-15

    The objective of this review was to provide a better understanding of how global climate change and fire influence the occurrence of understorey legumes and thereby biological nitrogen (N) fixation rates in forest ecosystems. Legumes are interesting models since they represent an interface between the soil, plant, and microbial compartments, and are directly linked to nutrient cycles through their ability to fix N. As such, they are likely to be affected by environmental changes. Biological N fixation has been shown to increase under enriched CO{sub 2} conditions, but is constrained by the availability of phosphorus and water. Climate change can also influence the species composition of legumes and their symbionts through warming, altered rainfall patterns, or changes in soil physicochemistry, which could modify the effectiveness of the symbiosis. Additionally, global climate change may increase the occurrence and intensity of forest wildfires thereby further influencing the distribution of legumes. The establishment of leguminous species is generally favored by fire, as is N{sub 2} fixation. This fixed N could therefore replenish the N lost through volatilization during the fire. However, fire may also generate shifts in the associated microbial community which could affect the outcome of the symbiosis. Understorey legumes are important functional species, and even when they cannot reasonably be expected to reestablish the nutrient balance in forest soils, they may be used as indicators to monitor nutrient fluxes and the response of forest ecosystems to changing environmental conditions. This would be helpful to accurately model ecosystem N budgets, and since N is often a limiting factor to plant growth and a major constraint on C storage in ecosystems, would allow us to assess more precisely the potential of these forests for C sequestration. (orig.)

  11. The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations.

    Huang, Shengzhi; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Qiang; Xie, Yangyang; Liu, Saiyan; Meng, Erhao; Li, Pei

    2017-07-19

    Projection of future drought is often involved large uncertainties from climate models, emission scenarios as well as drought definitions. In this study, we investigate changes in future droughts in the conterminous United States based on 97 1/8 degree hydro-climate model projections. Instead of focusing on a specific drought type, we investigate changes in meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought as well as the concurrences. Agricultural and hydrological droughts are projected to become more frequent with increase in global mean temperature, while less meteorological drought is expected. Changes in drought intensity scale linearly with global temperature rises under RCP8.5 scenario, indicating the potential feasibility to derive future drought severity given certain global warming amount under this scenario. Changing pattern of concurrent droughts generally follows that of agricultural and hydrological droughts. Under the 1.5 °C warming target as advocated in recent Paris agreement, several hot spot regions experiencing highest droughts are identified. Extreme droughts show similar patterns but with much larger magnitude than the climatology. This study highlights the distinct response of droughts of various types to global warming and the asymmetric impact of global warming on drought distribution resulting in a much stronger influence on extreme drought than on mean drought.

  12. Global River Discharge and Water Temperature under Climate Change

    Vliet, van M.T.H.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Yearsley, J.R.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on freshwater ecosystems and human water use. Here we assess the impact of climate change on global river flows and river water temperatures, and identify regions that might become more critical for

  13. Examining uncertainties in the linkage between global climate change and potential human health impacts in the western USA -- Hexachlorobenzene (HCB) as a case study

    McKone, T.E.; Daniels, J.I. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Goldman, M. [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)

    1994-09-30

    Industrial societies have altered the earth`s environment in ways that could have important, long-term ecological, economic, and health implications. In this paper the authors define, characterize, and evaluate parameter and outcome uncertainties using a model that links global climate change with predictions of chemical exposure and human health risk in the western region of the US. They illustrate the impact of uncertainty about global climate change on such potential secondary outcomes using as a case study the public health consequences related to the behavior environmentally of hexachlorobenzene (HCB), an ubiquitous multimedia pollutant. They begin by constructing a matrix that reveals the linkage between global environmental change and potential regional human-health effects that might be induced directly and/or indirectly by HCB released into the air and water. This matrix is useful for translating critical uncertainties into terms that can be understood and used by policy makers to formulate strategies against potential adverse irreversible health and economic consequences. Specifically, the authors employ a combined uncertainty/sensitivity analysis to investigate how the HCB that has been released is affected by increasing atmospheric temperature and the accompanying climate alterations that are anticipated and how such uncertainty propagates to affect the expected magnitude and calculational precision of estimates of associated potential human exposures and health effects.

  14. Costs of climate impacts

    Roberts, W O

    1980-03-01

    The surest prospect for future world climate patterns is that they will differ from present ones. What is uncertain is how much, and exactly in what way in different geographical regions. The anthropogenic CO/sub 2/ increase will probably exceed the unknown forcing functions of natural climate change within 30 to 60 years. It is not unlikely that by AD 2040 the world's climate, driven by the CO/sub 2/ increase, will enter a domain warmer than any within the past few million years. The costs of averting this climate change or of absorbing its impact are likely to be huge, even though today imponderable. Not least among these are intangible and unquantifiable costs associated with changes in human values and the quality of everyday life for future generations.

  15. The impact of human activities in africa,the north and south pole regions on global climate change

    Abubakar, Babagana

    As a result of the rapid increase in the petroleum exploration, Industrial, deforestation and other human activities going on within or around the Arctic and Antarctica ice caps near or in the temperate region countries like Canada, Greenland, Russia, U.S.A (Alaska), Iceland, Finland, Argentina, Tasmania and New Zealand among many others plus the increase in deforestation activities in Tropical world countries like the Amazon of Brazil, The Tropical Rain forest of Nigeria, Zaire (Democratic Republic of Congo), Cotedvoire, Indonesia etc. in addition to the Sahara and the Kalahari deserts encouragement as a result of human factors plus the uncontrolled disposals of broken Refrigerators, Air conditioners and propellants containing chlorofluorocarbon substances capable of destroying the Ozone layer in African refuse dumps (B.Abubkar,2006) are collectively becoming a threat to the world climate. This explains why the volume of the Ocean keeps on rising, global temperature keeps ascending and the global climate is becoming abnormal since the beginning of the above mentioned activities in the above mentioned locations. It was in view of the above that this research was conducted and came up with the under listed suggestions/recommendations: 1. The temperature region countries like Canada, Russia, U.S.A, Argentina etc. should come up with polices restricting certain industries with the possibilities of causing environmental hazards from operating near the Ice Caps of the Arctic or Antarctica even in areas which the Ice was frozen thousands of years ago as the case with Greenland. 2. The research and exploration activities going on around or on the Arctic and the Antarctica regions should be carried out with utmost care and concern to the global climate. 3. The deforestation activities going on without control in most of the Tropical World Countries should be monitored by the United Nation's Specialized Agencies on forest and other related international organization in such

  16. Global climate change and California

    Knox, J.B.; Scheuring, A.F.

    1991-01-01

    In the fall of 1988 the University of California organized a new public-service initiative on global climate change in response to inquiries and requests from members of Congress and the Department of Energy (DOE). This new systemwide initiative involved all of the University of California campuses and the University's three national laboratories at Berkeley, Los Alamos, and Livermore. The goal of this Greenhouse Initiative was to focus the multidisciplinary resources of the UC campuses and the team-oriented research capabilities of the laboratories on the prospect of global warming and its associated effects on the planet and its nations. In consultation with the DOE, the organizers proposed a series of workshops to focus University of California research resources on the issue of global warming, to contribute to the congressionally mandated DOE studies on options for the US to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 20% by the year 2000, and to begin building a long-term research base contributing to an improved understanding of global change in all of its complexity and diverse discipline implications. This volume contains papers from the first of these workshops. Individual papers are processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  17. Impact of climate change on voltinism and prospective diapause induction of a global pest insect--Cydia pomonella (L..

    Sibylle Stoeckli

    Full Text Available Global warming will lead to earlier beginnings and prolongation of growing seasons in temperate regions and will have pronounced effects on phenology and life-history adaptation in many species. These changes were not easy to simulate for actual phenologies because of the rudimentary temporal (season and spatial (regional resolution of climate model projections. We investigate the effect of climate change on the regional incidence of a pest insect with nearly worldwide distribution and very high potential for adaptation to season length and temperature--the Codling Moth, Cydia pomonella. Seasonal and regional climate change signals were downscaled to the hourly temporal scale of a pest phenology model and the spatial scale of pest habitats using a stochastic weather generator operating at daily scale in combination with a re-sampling approach for simulation of hourly weather data. Under future conditions of increased temperatures (2045-2074, the present risk of below 20% for a pronounced second generation (peak larval emergence in Switzerland will increase to 70-100%. The risk of an additional third generation will increase from presently 0-2% to 100%. We identified a significant two-week shift to earlier dates in phenological stages, such as overwintering adult flight. The relative extent (magnitude of first generation pupae and all later stages will significantly increase. The presence of first generation pupae and later stages will be prolonged. A significant decrease in the length of overlap of first and second generation larval emergence was identified. Such shifts in phenology may induce changes in life-history traits regulating the life cycle. An accordingly life-history adaptation in photoperiodic diapause induction to shorter day-length is expected and would thereby even more increase the risk of an additional generation. With respect to Codling Moth management, the shifts in phenology and voltinism projected here will require

  18. International global climate change negotiations. Hearings before the Subcommittee on Energy and Power of the Committee on Commerce, House of Representatives, One Hundred Fifth Congress, First Session, July 15, 1997--The economic and environmental impact of the proposed agreement -- November 11, 1997--Status of International Global Climate Change Negotiations

    1997-01-01

    In these hearings attention was focused on the following: the economic and environmental impact of the proposed agreement; and the status of international global climate change negotiations. US policy must be based on both the best scientific information available and on a clear understanding of the economic impacts of any actions that may be taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

  19. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research: Computer simulation -climate impact research. Final report

    1993-07-01

    Climate impact assessment is a new field of research which, owing to international and national efforts to understand and cope with the impending global climate changes on a global, regional and local level, has rapidly become a central field of research of the Federal Ministry of Research and Technology. In contrast to other countries, Germany had no research facilities and infrastructure that could be used. The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research was to provide the infrastructure basis for climate impact research in Germany. The Institute was founded by the BMFT and the Land of Brandenburg. (orig.) [de

  20. Climate Impacts of Cover Crops

    Lombardozzi, D.; Wieder, W. R.; Bonan, G. B.; Morris, C. K.; Grandy, S.

    2016-12-01

    Cover crops are planted in agricultural rotation with the intention of protecting soil rather than harvest. Cover crops have numerous environmental benefits that include preventing soil erosion, increasing soil fertility, and providing weed and pest control- among others. In addition to localized environmental benefits, cover crops can have important regional or global biogeochemical impacts by increasing soil organic carbon, changing emissions of greenhouse trace gases like nitrous oxide and methane, and reducing hydrologic nitrogen losses. Cover crops may additionally affect climate by changing biogeophysical processes, like albedo and latent heat flux, though these potential changes have not yet been evaluated. Here we use the coupled Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) - Community Land Model (CLM4.5) to test how planting cover crops in the United States may change biogeophysical fluxes and climate. We present seasonal changes in albedo, heat fluxes, evaporative partitioning, radiation, and the resulting changes in temperature. Preliminary analyses show that during seasons when cover crops are planted, latent heat flux increases and albedo decreases, changing the evaporative fraction and surface temperatures. Understanding both the biogeophysical changes caused by planting cover crops in this study and the biogeochemical changes found in other studies will give a clearer picture of the overall impacts of cover crops on climate and atmospheric chemistry, informing how this land use strategy will impact climate in the future.

  1. Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

    Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M.; Wohland, Jan; Perrette, Mahé; Golly, Antonius; Rogelj, Joeri; Childers, Katelin; Schewe, Jacob; Frieler, Katja; Mengel, Matthias; Hare, William; Schaeffer, Michiel

    2016-04-01

    Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 °C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 °C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90 % in 2050 and projected to decline to 70 % by 2100 for a 1.5 °C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9 % to 17 % between 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11 %. Projections for

  2. Parameterization of dust emissions in the global atmospheric chemistry-climate model EMAC: impact of nudging and soil properties

    Astitha, M.; Lelieveld, J.; Abdel Kader, M.; Pozzer, A.; de Meij, A.

    2012-11-01

    Airborne desert dust influences radiative transfer, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, as well as nutrient transport and deposition. It directly and indirectly affects climate on regional and global scales. Two versions of a parameterization scheme to compute desert dust emissions are incorporated into the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy2.41 Atmospheric Chemistry). One uses a globally uniform soil particle size distribution, whereas the other explicitly accounts for different soil textures worldwide. We have tested these two versions and investigated the sensitivity to input parameters, using remote sensing data from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and dust concentrations and deposition measurements from the AeroCom dust benchmark database (and others). The two versions are shown to produce similar atmospheric dust loads in the N-African region, while they deviate in the Asian, Middle Eastern and S-American regions. The dust outflow from Africa over the Atlantic Ocean is accurately simulated by both schemes, in magnitude, location and seasonality. Approximately 70% of the modelled annual deposition data and 70-75% of the modelled monthly aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the Atlantic Ocean stations lay in the range 0.5 to 2 times the observations for all simulations. The two versions have similar performance, even though the total annual source differs by ~50%, which underscores the importance of transport and deposition processes (being the same for both versions). Even though the explicit soil particle size distribution is considered more realistic, the simpler scheme appears to perform better in several locations. This paper discusses the differences between the two versions of the dust emission scheme, focusing on their limitations and strengths in describing the global dust cycle and suggests possible future improvements.

  3. Influence of updating global emission inventory of black carbon on evaluation of the climate and health impact

    Wang, Rong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Ciais, Philippe

    2013-04-01

    Black carbon (BC) is an air component of particular concern in terms of air quality and climate change. Black carbon emissions are often estimated based on the fuel data and emission factors. However, large variations in emission factors reported in the literature have led to a high uncertainty in previous inventories. Here, we develop a new global 0.1°×0.1° BC emission inventory for 2007 with full uncertainty analysis based on updated source and emission factor databases. Two versions of LMDz-OR-INCA models, named as INCA and INCA-zA, are run to evaluate the new emission inventory. INCA is built up based on a regular grid system with a resolution of 1.27° in latitude and 2.50° in longitude, while INCA-zA is specially zoomed to 0.51°×0.66° (latitude×longitude) in Asia. By checking against field observations, we compare our inventory with ACCMIP, which is used by IPCC in the 5th assessment report, and also evaluate the influence of model resolutions. With the newly calculated BC air concentrations and the nested model, we estimate the direct radiative forcing of BC and the premature death and mortality rate induced by BC exposure with Asia emphasized. Global BC direct radiative forcing at TOA is estimated to be 0.41 W/m2 (0.2 - 0.8 as inter-quartile range), which is 17% higher than that derived from the inventory adopted by IPCC-AR5 (0.34 W/m2). The estimated premature deaths induced by inhalation exposure to anthropogenic BC (0.36 million in 2007) and the percentage of high risk population are higher than those previously estimated. Ninety percents of the global total anthropogenic PD occur in Asia with 0.18 and 0.08 million deaths in China and India, respectively.

  4. Parameterization of dust emissions in the global atmospheric chemistry-climate model EMAC: impact of nudging and soil properties

    M. Astitha

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Airborne desert dust influences radiative transfer, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, as well as nutrient transport and deposition. It directly and indirectly affects climate on regional and global scales. Two versions of a parameterization scheme to compute desert dust emissions are incorporated into the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy2.41 Atmospheric Chemistry. One uses a globally uniform soil particle size distribution, whereas the other explicitly accounts for different soil textures worldwide. We have tested these two versions and investigated the sensitivity to input parameters, using remote sensing data from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET and dust concentrations and deposition measurements from the AeroCom dust benchmark database (and others. The two versions are shown to produce similar atmospheric dust loads in the N-African region, while they deviate in the Asian, Middle Eastern and S-American regions. The dust outflow from Africa over the Atlantic Ocean is accurately simulated by both schemes, in magnitude, location and seasonality. Approximately 70% of the modelled annual deposition data and 70–75% of the modelled monthly aerosol optical depth (AOD in the Atlantic Ocean stations lay in the range 0.5 to 2 times the observations for all simulations. The two versions have similar performance, even though the total annual source differs by ~50%, which underscores the importance of transport and deposition processes (being the same for both versions. Even though the explicit soil particle size distribution is considered more realistic, the simpler scheme appears to perform better in several locations. This paper discusses the differences between the two versions of the dust emission scheme, focusing on their limitations and strengths in describing the global dust cycle and suggests possible future improvements.

  5. Global Climate Change: Threat Multiplier for AFRICOM?

    Yackle, Terri A

    2007-01-01

    .... Whatever the catalyst for this abrupt climate change, stability for Africa hinges upon mitigating the effects of global climate change to prevent future conflicts such as Darfur, and the instability...

  6. Impacts, risks, and governance of climate engineering

    Zhe Liu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate engineering is a potential alternative method to curb global warming, and this discipline has garnered considerable attention from the international scientific community including the Chinese scientists. This manuscript provides an overview of several aspects of climate engineering, including its definition, its potential impacts and risk, and its governance status. The overall conclusion is that China is not yet ready to implement climate engineering. However, it is important for China to continue conducting research on climate engineering, particularly with respect to its feasible application within China, its potential social, economic, and environmental impacts, and possible international governance structures and governing principles, with regard to both experimentation and implementation.

  7. Power Watch - A global, open database of power plants that supports research on climate, water and air pollution impact of the global power sector.

    Friedrich, J.; Kressig, A.; Van Groenou, S.; McCormick, C.

    2017-12-01

    Challenge The lack of transparent, accessible, and centralized power sector data inhibits the ability to research the impact of the global power sector. information gaps for citizens, analysts, and decision makers worldwide create barriers to sustainable development efforts. The need for transparent, accessible, and centralized information is especially important to enhance the commitments outlined in the recently adopted Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals. Offer Power Watch will address this challenge by creating a comprehensive, open-source platform on the world's power systems. The platform hosts data on 85% of global installed electrical capacity and for each power plant will include data points on installed capacity, fuel type, annual generation, commissioning year, with more characteristics like emissions, particulate matter, annual water demand and more added over time. Most of the data is reported from national level sources, but annual generation and other operational characteristiscs are estimated via Machine Learning modeling and remotely sensed data when not officially reported. In addition, Power Watch plans to provide a suite of tools that address specific decision maker needs, such as water risk assessments and air pollution modeling. Impact Through open data, the platform and its tools will allow reserachers to do more analysis of power sector impacts and perform energy modeling. It will help catalyze accountability for policy makers, businesses, and investors and will inform and drive the transition to a clean energy future while reaching development targets.

  8. Global climate change -- taking action

    2000-01-01

    Commitment of the Canadian Mining Association (MAC), on behalf of its member companies, to play a global leadership role in eco-efficiency and environmental stewardship and participate fully in Canada's efforts to reduce emissions that contribute to climate change, are outlined. The principles underlying the MAC's commitment include: prudent action to reduce GHG emissions; the greatest possible efficiency in using energy; use of best practices and technologies; support for the development of balanced climate change policies; cooperation with all stakeholders in achieving the maximum feasible reduction in GHG emissions; support for research and analysis of the social, economic and environmental implications of GHG reduction strategies; and active support for a balanced and effective public outreach and education program. A brief review of how the mining sector has already made giant strides in cutting energy consumption and in reducing carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per unit of output during the past decade is supplemented by summaries of GHG reduction success stories from member companies such as Cominco, Teck Corporation, Falconbridge and Syncrude Canada Limited

  9. Impact of global climate change on ecosystem-level interactions among sympatric plants from all three photosynthetic pathways. Terminal report

    Nobel, P.S.

    1997-12-17

    The proposed research will determine biochemical and physiological responses to variations in environmental factors for plants of all three photosynthetic pathways under competitive situations in the field. These responses will be used to predict the effects of global climatic change on an ecosystem in the northwestern Sonoran Desert where the C{sub 3} subshrub Encelia farinosa, the C{sub 4} bunchgrass Hilaria rigida, and the CAM succulent Agave deserti are co-dominants. These perennials are relatively short with overlapping shallow roots facilitating the experimental measurements as well as leading to competition for soil water. Net CO{sub 2} uptake over 24-h periods measured in the laboratory will be analyzed using an environmental productivity index (EPI) that can incorporate simultaneous effects of soil water, air temperature, and light. Based on EPI, net CO{sub 2} uptake and hence plant productivity will be predicted for the three species in the field under various treatments. Activity of the two CO{sub 2} fixation enzymes, Rubisco and PEPCase, will be determined for these various environmental conditions; also, partitioning of carbon to various organs will be measured based on {sup 14}CO{sub 2} labeling and dry weight analysis. Thus, enzymatic and partitioning controls on competition among sympatric model plants representing all three photosynthetic pathways will be investigated.

  10. Global Climate Change Consequences Changing the Middle Sea Level in the Brazilian Coast: Impacts on Ceará State

    Lacerda, E. G.; Pires, L. B. M.; Pinto, V. K. E.

    2015-12-01

    Since the Industrial Revolution, man started to generate increasing amounts of waste and pollutants, which on a large scale in the long term is causing a series of climate change consequences, both globally as well as locally. One of the many effects of these changes has been reflected in the ocean levels, depending on various factors. Thus, the population living in coastal areas suffers from the negative effects of the advancement of ocean waters. The coast of northeastern Brazil is an example of this, especially the state of Ceará coast. The state of Ceará has 573 km of coastline, a region that has suffered extensive erosion, in which the Middle Sea Level (MSL) changes exert a significant influence. The coastal plain is a strip of land of small extent, with an average width of 2.5 km, formed depending on the availability of high sediment stocks provided through the action of wind, marine, or river processes, individually in combination with each other. In many beaches it is observed that the strip of beach is narrow due to the presence of topographic elevations carved into sharp cliffs. Between periods of high tide and low tide, often rocky beach features are observed that have recently formed. The waves control the stretches of beach which are mostly sandy. This paper presents a survey about the evidence already apparent on the rise in the MSL and correlates it with the advance of the sea on the coast of Ceará, as well as assesses the possible consequences of this process. Therefore, a literature search was conducted in relevant scientific publications. The data used are from the station "Global Sea Level Observing System - GLOSS" which maintains a tide gauge installed in Ceará in Fortaleza. The analyses show that the phenomenon has caused a lot of inconvenience to the people, streets have disappeared, as well as several buildings located along the coast. The sea advances destroyed beaches and have promoted an accelerated level of erosion, changing the

  11. Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil

    Willian Bucker Moraes

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 ºC, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T and air relative humidity (RH: i high risk (18 90%; ii medium risk (18 25 ºC and RH > 90%; and iii low risk (T 25 ºC and RH < 90%. Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3 was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the

  12. Global climate change: Implications, challenges, and mitigation measures

    Majumdar, S.K.

    1992-01-01

    This book presents a perspective of the potential problem of global climate change induced by human activity. The editors have presented viewpoints of experts (advocates and skeptics) representing the issues of climate change. Possible results from long-term global change discussed in this book include mass migrations of plants and animals; changes in crop yields; flood and drought; and economic, political, and cultural changes. The text contains 20 chapters on the impact of global climate change and 10 chapters on the mitigation of effects and policy development

  13. NASA NDATC Global Climate Change Education Initiative

    Bennett, B.; Wood, E.; Meyer, D.; Maynard, N.; Pandya, R. E.

    2009-12-01

    This project aligns with NASA’s Strategic Goal 3A - “Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs and focuses on funding from the GCCE Funding Category 2: Strengthen the Teaching and Learning About Global Climate Change Within Formal Education Systems. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report (2007) those communities with the least amount of resources will be most vulnerable, and least likely to adapt to the impacts brought on by a changing climate. Further, the level of vulnerability of these communities is directly correlated with their ability to implement short, medium and long range mitigation measures. The North Dakota Association of Tribal Colleges (NDATC) has established a climate change education initiative among its six member Tribal Colleges and Universities (TCUs). The goal of this project is to enhance the TCUs capacity to educate their constituents on the science of climate change and mitigation strategies specifically as they apply to Indian Country. NDATC is comprised of six American Indian tribally chartered colleges (TCUs) which include: Cankdeska Cikana Community College, serving the Spirit Lake Dakota Nation; Fort Berthold Community College, serving the Mandan, Hidatsa, and Arikara Nation; Sitting Bull College, serving the Hunkpapa Lakota and Dakota Nation; Turtle Mountain Community College, serving the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa; Sisseton Wahpeton College serving the Sisseton and Wahpeton Dakota Nation, and United Tribes Technical College, serving over 70 Tribal groups from across the United States. The purpose of this project is to (1) increase awareness of climate change and its potential impacts in Indian Country through education for students, faculty and presidents of the TCUs as well as Tribal leadership; (2) increase the capacity of TCUs to respond to this global threat on behalf of tribal people; (3) develop climate change mitigation strategies relevant to Indian

  14. Climate of Tajikistan in connection with global climate change

    Khakimov, F.Kh.; Mirzokhonova, S.O.; Mirzokhonava, N.A.

    2006-01-01

    The analysis of global climate change for different periods and its consequences on regional climate is given. The chronology of climate change in Tajikistan in various regions and the reasons leading or resulted to these changes are changes are shown as well

  15. Global Climate Exchange: Peer collaboration in a “Global classroom”

    Korsager, Majken; Jorde, Doris; Slotta, Jim

    2014-01-01

    This paper reports on student peer collaboration in an online environment in an international shared curriculum, the Global Climate Exchange. Four cohorts of students (age 16 -19) from Canada, China, Norway and Sweden (n=157) were engaged in four wiki-based activities where they collaborated with peers locally and internationally. Previously, impact from Global Climate Exchange on students’ conceptual understanding was analysed, indicating a positive impact which might be explained by the amo...

  16. Biomass burning in Indo-China peninsula and its impacts on regional air quality and global climate change-a review

    Yadav, Ishwar Chandra; Linthoingambi Devi, Ningombam; Li, Jun; Syed, Jabir Hussain; Zhang, Gan; Watanabe, Hirozumi

    2017-01-01

    Although, many biomass burning (BB) emissions products (particulate matter and trace gases) are believed to be trans-boundary pollutants that originates from India and China (the two most populous countries in Asia), the information about BB emission and related contents is limited for Indo-China Peninsula (ICP) region. This motivated us to review this region pertaining to BB emission. The main objective of the review is to document the current status of BB emission in ICP region. In order to highlight the impact of BB on regional air quality and global climate change, the role of BB emission in ICP region is also discussed. Based on the available literature and modeling simulations studies, it is evidenced that ICP is one of the hotspot regional source for aerosols in terms of BB emissions. In addition, regional emissions through BB have significant implications for regional air quality especially in the neighboring countries such as China, Taiwan and India. Our assessment highlight that there is still a general lack of reliable data and research studies addressing BB related issues in context of environmental and human health. There is therefore a critical need to improve the current knowledge base, which should build upon the research experience and further research into these issues is considered vital to help inform future policies/control strategies. - Highlights: • Forest burning is the main sources of BB emissions in the ICP region. • ICP is one of the hotspot regional source for aerosols in terms of BB emissions. • BB emission in ICP significantly affects regional air quality and global climate. - Indo-China Peninsula is one of the hotspot sources of aerosols in terms of biomass burning emissions that significantly influence regional air quality and global climate change.

  17. Environmental impact of climate change in pakistan

    Khan, S.; Raja, I.A.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change results in the increase or decrease in temperature and rainfall. These have significant impact on environment - impinge agricultural crop yields, affect human health, cause changes to forests and other ecosystems, and even impact our energy supply. Climate change is a global phenomenon and its impact can be observed on Pakistan's economy and environment. This paper contains details concerning the climate change and environmental impacts. It takes into account current and projected key vulnerabilities, prospects for adaptation, and the relationships between climate change mitigation and environment. The purpose of the study is to devise national policies and incentive systems combined with national level capacity-building programs to encourage demand-oriented conservation technologies. Recommendations are also made to abate the climate change related issues in country. (author)

  18. Climate Change in Myanmar: Impacts and Adaptation

    2014-12-01

    Intelligence Agency CO2 carbon dioxide CO2e carbon dioxide equivalent EIA environmental impact assessment ENSO El Nino southern oscillation EPA...therefore exposed to long-term climatic impacts such 25 Central Intelligence Agency [CIA], “The World...economy as well as result in human suffering through increased rates of malnutrition , health problems, and mortality. The IPCC and the global

  19. Macrophyte assemblage composition as a simple tool to assess global change in coastal areas. Freshwater impacts and climatic changes.

    Buosi, Alessandro; Sfriso, Adriano

    2017-12-15

    Macrophyte assemblages are one of the most sensitive biological communities to assess anthropogenic impacts and climate changes. Community composition responds very quickly to environmental changes driving towards a predictable composition. The increase or decrease of the trophic status (i.e. nutrient concentrations, suspended particulate matter, Chlorophyll-a) and temperature are the most important factors responsible for the replacement of taxa of high ecological value (sensitive taxa) with opportunistic species. A qualitative and quantitative study of macrophytes in 4 areas along the coasts of the Northern Adriatic Sea, from Venice (Italy) to Savudrija (Croatia) and the analysis of river outflows in this region during one year (May 2012-April 2013) provided information about their spatial variability. The coasts of the Veneto Region and Friuli-Venezia Giulia, which are affected by significant freshwater inputs, showed a strong biodiversity reduction or a dominance of thionitrophilic taxa. No seagrasses colonized these areas. On the other hand, the coasts of Croatia had negligible fresh water inputs and macrophyte communities were dominated by sensitive taxa such as the seagrass Cymodocea nodosa and some species belonging to genus Cystoseira. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. The tundra - a threat to global climate?

    Roejle Christensen, T.

    1997-01-01

    The tundra biome has an important direct influence on the global climate through its exchange of radiatively active 'greenhouse gases', carbon dioxide and methane. A number of suggestions have been raised as to how a changing climate may alter the natural state of this exchange causing significant feedback effects in a changing climate. This paper provides a brief discussion of three different issues relating to the interaction between tundra and climate. It is concluded that release of methane hydrates, permafrost degradation and major biome changes are processes which in the long term may have important effects on further development of the global climate. (au) 32 refs

  1. The global climate Policy Evaluation Framework

    Cohan, D.; Stafford, R.K.; Scheraga, J.D.; Herrod, S.

    1994-01-01

    The Policy Evaluation Framework (PEF) is a decision analysis tool that enables decision makers to continuously formulate policies that take into account the existing uncertainties, and to refine policies as new scientific information is developed. PEF integrates deterministic parametric models of physical, biological, and economic systems with a flexible decision tree system. The deterministic models represent greenhouse gas emissions, atmospheric accumulation of these gases, global and regional climate changes, ecosystem impacts, economic impacts, and mitigation and adaptation options, The decision tree system captures the key scientific and economic uncertainties, and reflects the wide range of possible outcomes of alternative policy actions. The framework contains considerable flexibility to allow a wide range of scientific and economic assumptions or scenarios to be represented and explored. A key feature of PEF is its capability to address both mitigation policies and investments in anticipatory adaptation to protect ecological and economic systems, as well as interactions among such options. PEF's time structure allows issues related to the timing and flexibility of alternatives to be evaluated, while the decision tree structure facilitates examining questions involving the value of information, contingent actions, and probabilistic representations. This paper is intended to introduce PEF to the global climate policy community. The paper provides an overview of the structure, modules, and capabilities of PEF, and discusses selected results from an initial set of illustrative applications

  2. Global Climate Change as Environmental Megacrisis

    Endter-Wada, Joanna; Ingram, Helen

    2012-01-01

    The authors analyze global climate change utilizing insights from the governance and crisis management literatures that seek to understand the prospects, nature, characteristics and the effects of cataclysmic events. They argue that global climate change is a mega-crisis hiding in plain sight yet there has been no proportionate mega-crisis response. People are still grappling with how to make sense of climate change, how to bridge multiple ways of knowing it, and how to negotiate collective c...

  3. Climate geopolitics. Negotiations, strategies, impacts

    Gemenne, Francois

    2015-01-01

    As countries are not equal in front of the climate change issue (some contribute more than the others, some will be more heavily impacted, some are more dependent on fossil energies, some could be affected by population movements related to the degradation of their environment), and as countries are to adopt measures for a more sustainable development while facing huge geopolitical challenges which affect international negotiations, this book aims at describing and analysing these issues which illustrate serious imbalances between countries. These issues relate to the development of energy policies, to geographical and demographic constraints. The author describes how the climate has become an international political issue, and a field of complex interactions with international relationships. After having recalled the origins of greenhouse gas emissions and their main expected impacts, he analyses the various responsibilities, describes these different impacts, outlines how global warming is basically unfair: the less responsible countries will be more impacted than the responsible ones. He also discusses mechanisms of international cooperation which have been implemented to address this issue: adaptation and mitigation policies, associated negotiations. He notices that the strongest mitigation efforts are, the least necessary adaptation efforts will be. He discusses the issue of financing and necessary financial and technological transfers to help southern countries in reducing their emissions without compromising their development. He highlights the current status of negotiations, their organisation, the present actors and forces, and their main point of tension

  4. Social and economic impacts of climate.

    Carleton, Tamma A; Hsiang, Solomon M

    2016-09-09

    For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions-such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms-influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research is illuminating important linkages in the coupled climate-human system. We highlight key methodological innovations and results describing effects of climate on health, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. Because of persistent "adaptation gaps," current climate conditions continue to play a substantial role in shaping modern society, and future climate changes will likely have additional impact. For example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields by ~48%, warming since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by ~11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by ~0.28 percentage points per year. In general, we estimate that the economic and social burden of current climates tends to be comparable in magnitude to the additional projected impact caused by future anthropogenic climate changes. Overall, findings from this literature point to climate as an important influence on the historical evolution of the global economy, they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we predict the consequences of future climate changes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  5. Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C

    Y. Chen

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available A new temperature goal of holding the increase in global average temperature well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels has been established in the Paris Agreement, which calls for an understanding of climate risk under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate change on growth and productivity of three major crops (i.e. maize, wheat, rice in China during 2106–2115 in warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0 °C using a method of ensemble simulation with well-validated Model to capture the Crop–Weather relationship over a Large Area (MCWLA family crop models, their 10 sets of optimal crop model parameters and 70 climate projections from four global climate models. We presented the spatial patterns of changes in crop growth duration, crop yield, impacts of heat and drought stress, as well as crop yield variability and the probability of crop yield decrease. Results showed that climate change would have major negative impacts on crop production, particularly for wheat in north China, rice in south China and maize across the major cultivation areas, due to a decrease in crop growth duration and an increase in extreme events. By contrast, with moderate increases in temperature, solar radiation, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration, agricultural climate resources such as light and thermal resources could be ameliorated, which would enhance canopy photosynthesis and consequently biomass accumulations and yields. The moderate climate change would slightly worsen the maize growth environment but would result in a much more appropriate growth environment for wheat and rice. As a result, wheat, rice and maize yields would change by +3.9 (+8.6, +4.1 (+9.4 and +0.2 % (−1.7 %, respectively, in a warming scenario of 1.5 °C (2.0 °C. In general, the warming scenarios would bring more opportunities than

  6. Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts

    Chin, Mian; Kahn, Ralph A.; Remer, Lorraine A.; Yu, Hongbin; Rind, David; Feingold, Graham; Quinn, Patricia K.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Streets, David G.; DeCola, Phillip; hide

    2009-01-01

    This report critically reviews current knowledge about global distributions and properties of atmospheric aerosols, as they relate to aerosol impacts on climate. It assesses possible next steps aimed at substantially reducing uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing estimates. Current measurement techniques and modeling approaches are summarized, providing context. As a part of the Synthesis and Assessment Product in the Climate Change Science Program, this assessment builds upon recent related assessments, including the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4, 2007) and other Climate Change Science Program reports. The objectives of this report are (1) to promote a consensus about the knowledge base for climate change decision support, and (2) to provide a synthesis and integration of the current knowledge of the climate-relevant impacts of anthropogenic aerosols for policy makers, policy analysts, and general public, both within and outside the U.S government and worldwide.

  7. Investigating the impact of global climatic and landuse changes on groundwater resources in hard rock areas of South India

    Ferrant, S.; Perrin, J.; Marechal, J.; Dewandel, B.; Aulong, S.; Ahmed, S.

    2010-12-01

    In most parts of India, and particularly in South India, groundwater levels are hazardously declining, while agricultural groundwater use is increasing. The current issue is to address the probable evolution of water table levels in relation with climate and agricultural changes. The aim of the SHIVA-ANR project (http://www.shiva-anr.org) is to provide some indicators of the water availability at the village scale to evaluate the vulnerability of farmers facing global changes. This study focuses on a particularly water stressed semi-arid area of South India characterized by hard rock geology with naturally low recharge capacity and limited surface water availability. The study catchment is located in the agricultural area of the Kudaliar river watershed (980km^2) located 50 km north of Hyderabad, India. It is composed of about 120 villages. Socio economic surveys have been carried out at the village scale to evaluate the present socio-economic situation of farmers. It also provides more details on various cultural and irrigation practices at this scale. The landuse has been evaluated by remote sensing with two satellite images, one after monsoon (October 2009), and the other during dry season (March 2010). Groundwater-irrigated rice paddies represent about 10% of the area, whereas rainfed crop (corn and cotton) represent about 45%. Numerous small tanks (reservoir) situated on the river network define a water harvesting system of 2% of the catchment area which captures surface runoff during monsoon. No discharges data are available at the outlet, as the river is dry most of the year. A hydro-geological survey has been carried out to provide a map of aquifer thickness and the general state of the groundwater level before and after monsoon. The Soil Water Assessment Tool model (SWAT) has been calibrated to assess the water budget of the agricultural catchment under present conditions. Soil parameters calibration is made first on seasonal groundwater recharge for

  8. Climatic change and impacts: a general introduction

    Fantechi, R.; Almeida-Teixeira, M.E.; Maracchi, G.

    1991-01-01

    These proceedings are divided into six parts containing 29 technical papers. 1. An Overview of the Climatic System, 2. Past climate Changes, 3. Climate Processes and Climate Modelling, 4. Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, 5. Climatic Impacts, 6. STUDENTS' PAPERS

  9. Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

    Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

    2015-01-01

    Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in…

  10. The impacts and costs of global warming

    Eyre, N.J.

    1991-01-01

    There is now a scientific consensus that current rates of accumulation of greenhouses gases in the atmosphere will result in significant global warming and climate change. These changes are likely to have important impacts on a wide range of human activities and the natural environment. There has now been a considerable weight of literature published on the impacts of global warming, much of it very recent. This report seeks to summarise the important results, to analyse the uncertainties and to make a preliminary analysis of the feasibility of monetarising these environmental costs. The impacts of global warming are divided into ten major categories: agriculture, forests and forestry, terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity, hydrology and water resources, sea level rise and coastal zones, energy, infrastructure/transport/industry, human health and air quality, oceans, and cryospheric impacts. The results of major summary reports are analysed, notably the report of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC). (author)

  11. Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Nigeria | Osuafor ...

    Climate change is brought about by natural as well as man-made factors. Climate change or global warming has negative impact on the global environment. Some of these devastating effects include volcano, landslide, erosion, flooding, drought, pests and diseases. These factors in turn impact on agriculture and ...

  12. Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

    Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2018-04-01

    The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

  13. Salt Marshes as Potential Indicatore of Global Climate Change

    Kim, Daehyun; Cairens, David; Jung, S.H.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal scientists postulate that salt marshes are significantly affected by dynamics of global climate. However, few studies have explicitly proposed a perspective that regards salt marshes as potential indicators of climate change. This review article evaluates the possibility of salt marshes...... as indicators of global climate change, focusing upon three major aspects: sedimentary, vegetation, and biogeochemical dynamics. The previous literature concerned with these aspects commonly argues that the primary impact of climate change on salt marshes occurs via sea-level variations, because hydrologic...... fluctuations regulate the frequency, duration, and depth of over-marsh flooding events. Sedimentary, floristic, and biogeochemical dynamics prove to be significantly influenced by sealevel changes regardless of climate zones, and hence, undoubtedly possess a potential for indicating climate signatures. However...

  14. Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change.

    Li, Delong; Wu, Shuyao; Liu, Laibao; Zhang, Yatong; Li, Shuangcheng

    2018-05-27

    Climate change has far-reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short-term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  15. Climate challenge 2012: growth and climate change - Socio-economical impacts of climate change. Conference proceedings

    Orange-Louboutin, Mylene; Robinet, Olivier; Delalande, Daniel; Reysset, Bertrand; De Perthuis, Christian; Le Treut, Herve; Cottenceau, Jean-Baptiste; Ayong, Alain; Daubaire, Aurelien; Gaudin, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    The contributions of this conference session proposed comments and discussion on the relationship between climate change and 'green' growth, on the status of scientific knowledge on climate change (from global to local), on the way to perform carbon print assessment and to decide which actions to implement, on the costs and opportunity of impacts of climate change, on the economy of adaptation, on the benefits and costs of the adaptation policy, and on impacts of climate change on employment in quantitative terms and in terms of profession types

  16. Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro; Díaz-Sierra, Rubén; Martín-Aranda, Rosa M.; Santos, Maria J.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed to (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change. - Highlights: • Climate change adaptation may have undesirable environmental impacts. • The impacts of adaptation are yet poorly analysed in the literature. • There is an excessive sectoral approach to adaptation, mainly

  17. Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro, E-mail: aenriquez@draba.org [Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED)/Draba Ingeniería y Consultoría Medioambiental, Cañada Nueva, 13, 28200 San Lorenzo de El Escorial (Spain); Díaz-Sierra, Rubén, E-mail: sierra@dfmf.uned.es [Departamento de Física Matemática y de Fluidos, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Martín-Aranda, Rosa M., E-mail: rmartin@ccia.uned.es [Departamento de Química Inorgánica y Química Técnica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Santos, Maria J., E-mail: M.J.FerreiraDosSantos@uu.nl [Department of Innovation, Environmental and Energy Sciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3572 TC Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2017-05-15

    Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed to (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change. - Highlights: • Climate change adaptation may have undesirable environmental impacts. • The impacts of adaptation are yet poorly analysed in the literature. • There is an excessive sectoral approach to adaptation, mainly

  18. Global climate change and introduced species in United States forests

    Simberloff, D. [Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, 37996 Knoxville, TN (United States)

    2000-11-15

    Introduced species already cause billions of dollars of damage annually in United States forests, plus massive ecological damage whose economic value has often not been estimated. The variety of impacts is staggering and includes herbivory, predation, disease, parasitism, competition, habitat destruction, hybridization, and changed disturbance regimes and nutrient cycles. How global climate change will affect these impacts has scarcely been assessed. Range changes of existing introduced species will be prominent, as many species' biogeographic ranges are set primarily by climate. Similarly, some species that might otherwise not have survived will be able to establish populations in a changed climate. It is more difficult to predict what the impacts of the introduced species will be. What is most needed are studies of the combined impacts of changing climate, CO{sub 2}, and nutrients. Certain aspects of the biology of introduced species, such as evolution and autonomous dispersal, greatly complicate the prediction of spread and impact of introduced species.

  19. Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change

    Tierney, Benjamin P.

    2013-01-01

    The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theory perspective (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) by asking the question, "How do differences…

  20. [The global climate: a sick patient

    Lidegaard, O.; Lidegaard, M.

    2008-01-01

    , and major climatic disasters, including health threats to millions of people, are probable if the CO2 emission increases further. Therefore, serious global initiatives should be taken now in order to prevent global over heating. Denmark should be at the forefront of these initiatives Udgivelsesdato: 2008/8/25......Over the last 100 years the human use of fossil fuel has increased the atmospheric CO2 content from 280 parts per million (ppm) to 380 ppm. This increase is expected to increase the global average temperature by a few degrees. The global climate is very sensitive to an increase in temperature...

  1. Global climate change and international security

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  2. Rapid characterisation of vegetation structure to predict refugia and climate change impacts across a global biodiversity hotspot.

    Antonius G T Schut

    Full Text Available Identification of refugia is an increasingly important adaptation strategy in conservation planning under rapid anthropogenic climate change. Granite outcrops (GOs provide extraordinary diversity, including a wide range of taxa, vegetation types and habitats in the Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR. However, poor characterization of GOs limits the capacity of conservation planning for refugia under climate change. A novel means for the rapid identification of potential refugia is presented, based on the assessment of local-scale environment and vegetation structure in a wider region. This approach was tested on GOs across the SWAFR. Airborne discrete return Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR data and Red Green and Blue (RGB imagery were acquired. Vertical vegetation profiles were used to derive 54 structural classes. Structural vegetation types were described in three areas for supervised classification of a further 13 GOs across the region. Habitat descriptions based on 494 vegetation plots on and around these GOs were used to quantify relationships between environmental variables, ground cover and canopy height. The vegetation surrounding GOs is strongly related to structural vegetation types (Kappa = 0.8 and to its spatial context. Water gaining sites around GOs are characterized by taller and denser vegetation in all areas. The strong relationship between rainfall, soil-depth, and vegetation structure (R(2 of 0.8-0.9 allowed comparisons of vegetation structure between current and future climate. Significant shifts in vegetation structural types were predicted and mapped for future climates. Water gaining areas below granite outcrops were identified as important putative refugia. A reduction in rainfall may be offset by the occurrence of deeper soil elsewhere on the outcrop. However, climate change interactions with fire and water table declines may render our conclusions conservative. The LiDAR-based mapping approach presented

  3. How Will Climate Change Affect Globalization?

    Dilyard, John Raymond; Bals, Lydia; Zhuplev, Anatoly

    2011-01-01

    , it will effect globalization. Businesses, if they want to be sustained, will have to adjust to climate change. This panel will examine two topics within which the relationship between climate change and globalization can be assessed - the sourcing of resources and services when the location of those resources...... is subject to change and the nature of competition in agriculture-based business, focusing on wine....

  4. Acidic deposition and global climate change

    Nikolaidis, N.P.; Ecsedy, C.; Olem, H.; Nikolaidis, V.S.

    1990-01-01

    A literature is presented which examines the research published on understanding ecosystem acidification and the effects of acidic deposition on freshwaters. Topics of discussion include the following: acidic deposition; regional assessments; atmospheric deposition and transport; aquatic effects; mathematical modeling; liming acidic waters; global climate change; atmospheric changes; climate feedbacks; and aquatic effects

  5. International business and global climate change

    Pinkse, J.; Kolk, A.

    2008-01-01

    Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and

  6. The impacts of climate change in Aquitaine

    Le Treut, Herve; Baldi, Isabelle; Bonneton, Philippe; Budzinski, Helene; Caill-Milly, Nathalie; D'Amico, Frank; Dupuy, Alain; Etcheber, Henri; Grousset, Francis; Kremer, Antoine; Ollat, Nathalie; Pereau, Jean-Christophe; Prouzet, Patrick; Salles, Denis; Sautour, Benoit; Villenave, Eric

    2013-01-01

    This article presents a book which addresses the impacts of climate change in the Aquitaine region by 2030-2050 in order to prepare the adaptation of the main economic sectors. Several fields are addressed: agriculture and wine-growing, forestry, estuaries, coasts and sea resources. The book examines two aspects of climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions: mitigation and adaptation. Two scenarios are studied: a global temperature increase of 2 degrees, and a global temperature increase between 4 and 5 degrees. As examples of this study, this article gives an overview of these issues of mitigation and adaptation in four domains: forests, wine-growing, air quality, and health

  7. Global climate change has already begun

    Sinclair, J.

    1991-01-01

    Global warning and climate change is now evident around the planet. Six of the eight warmest years on record occurred in the 1980s, while 1990 was the hottest year on record. The global imbalances seem set to worsen unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced and restoration of the earth's forests is begun

  8. Policy options for stabilizing global climate

    Lashof, D.A.; Tirpak, D.A.

    1990-12-01

    This report to congress by the US EPA explains the greenhouse effect and its influence on global climate. It outlines the trends in the greenhouse gases - their concentration history, distribution, sources and sinks and chemical and radiative properties. Climate change processes are discussed including climate feedbacks. Human activities affecting trace gases and climate are explained, followed by a chapter on the technical options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions which looks at energy services, energy supply, industry, forestry and agriculture. The future is considered, and the final chapters are concerned with policy options and international cooperation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 934 refs., 102 figs., 84 tabs

  9. Uncertainty and learning in a strategic environment. Global climate change

    Baker, Erin

    2005-01-01

    Global climate change is rife with uncertainties. Yet, we can expect to resolve much of this uncertainty in the next 100 years or so. Therefore, current actions should reflect the value of flexibility. Nevertheless, most models of climate change, particularly game-theoretic models, abstract from uncertainty. A model of the impacts of uncertainty and learning in a non-cooperative game shows that the level of correlation of damages across countries is crucial for determining optimal policy

  10. Global climate evolution during the last deglaciation

    Clark, Peter U.; Shakun, Jeremy D.; Baker, Paul A.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Brewer, Simon; Brook, Ed; Carlson, Anders E.; Cheng, Hai; Kaufman, Darrell S.; Liu, Zhengyu; Marchitto, Thomas M.; Mix, Alan C.; Morrill, Carrie; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Pahnke, Katharina

    2012-01-01

    Deciphering the evolution of global climate from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum approximately 19 ka to the early Holocene 11 ka presents an outstanding opportunity for understanding the transient response of Earth’s climate system to external and internal forcings. During this interval of global warming, the decay of ice sheets caused global mean sea level to rise by approximately 80 m; terrestrial and marine ecosystems experienced large disturbances and range shifts; perturbations to th...

  11. Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective.

    Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J; Abel, Guy J

    2017-05-01

    The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate-migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability.

  12. The withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Agreement and its impact on global climate change governance

    Yong-Xiang Zhang; Qing-Chen Chao; Qiu-Hong Zheng; Lei Huang

    2017-01-01

    The global community has prepared for the withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Agreement since Donald Trump was elected as the president of the U.S. However, Trump's formal declaration of withdrawal still caused worldwide reaction. Trump will use the withdrawal to build his political reputation and to renegotiate the Paris Agreement despite its negative effects on the political credibility, international relationships, and potential long-term economic growth of the U.S. In general, the withd...

  13. A globally integrated climate policy for Canada

    Bernstein, S.; Brunnee, J.; Duff, D.G.; Green, A.J.

    2008-01-01

    This book explored policy ideas and options from various perspectives, including science, law, political science, economics and sociology. The costs, opportunities and imperatives to participate in international diplomatic initiatives were considered along with the opportunities of regional global carbon markets. Canada's current policy on climate change negotiations have been focused on domestic regulation and incentives for technological responses and the setting of a domestic carbon price. The sense of urgency about global warming was discussed and the need for action to respond to the threat of global climate change was emphasized. The book also reviewed Canada's role in international climate policies and presented parameters and imperatives for global regime building in Canada. Domestic policy tools were also reviewed along with policy obstacles and opportunities. refs., tabs., figs.

  14. Malaysia's contributions towards global climate change concerns

    Yuzlaini Mohd Yusop; Yvonne Lunsong; Norhayati Kamaruddin

    2000-01-01

    Concerns about Green House Gas (GHG) emissions and global climate change were voiced by the scientific community as far back as the International Geophysical year in 1957 when climate changes scenarios and impacts were analysed. More recently, the United Nations Framework Convention on climate change (UNFCCC) was adopted in 1992, renewing a global acknowledgement and commitment towards curbing GHG emissions. Little progress was made until the adoption of Kyoto Protocol in December 1997, over 5 years later. Basically, developed countries would not commit to strong measures if there were no global effort (i. e. corresponding efforts by developing countries) while developing countries are waiting for developed countries to show concrete results first. Since 1950, developed countries cumulatively produced more than 80% of worldwide GHG emissions. Between 1950 and 1990, North America alone contributed 40 billion tons of carbon while Western and Eastern Europe contributed 57 billion tons. Developing countries produced only 24 billion tons of carbon emissions during the same period. At present, per capita emission in developed countries are also about ten times higher than those of developing countries. This imbalance has caused most developing countries to adopt a wait till others do it stance and justifiably so. Nonetheless, curbing GHG emissions should be a larger community effort (which includes business and the public) and not just the efforts of Governments and officials. Thus, the deciding factors should make more business or economic sense. It is likely that business and the general public would listen and contribute positively if they are made aware of potential cost savings and international competitiveness to be derived from these efforts. During the current economic slowdown, especially in East Asia, it makes business sense to defer the capital investment in new electricity generating capacity and related energy supply infrastructure. Pusat Tenaga Malaysia

  15. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J. [eds.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  16. Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

    Ahdoot, Samantha; Pacheco, Susan E

    2015-11-01

    Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  17. Business responses to global climate change

    Pinkse, J.M.

    2006-04-27

    This research project studies the evolution and determinants of corporate climate strategies of multinationals. Since most companies are affected by global climate change in a direct or indirect way, a range of strategies are emerging to mitigate climate change. These strategies are not only of a political nature (e.g. influencing government institutions), but also of a competitive nature. The aim is to introduce a typology of corporate climate strategies, paying specific attention to the market components related to climate change. More and more, multinationals' actions in reducing greenhouse gas emissions are aimed at achieving a sustained competitive advantage in addition to compliance with government regulation. What factors determine these market strategies for climate change will be explored in a theoretical framework based on institutional theory and the resource-based view of the firm.

  18. Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges

    Zanin, Marina; Mangabeira Albernaz, Ana Luisa

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified l...

  19. Global climate change--The technology challenge: China

    Population growth and developmental pressures, spawned by an increasing demand for resource intensive goods, foods and services, are altering the planet in ways that threaten the long-term well-being of humans and other species. Global climate change and its associated impacts is...

  20. Targets for global climate policy : An overview

    Tol, Richard S.J.

    A survey of the economic impact of climate change and the marginal damage costs shows that carbon dioxide emissions are a negative externality. The estimated Pigou tax and its growth rate are too low to justify the climate policy targets set by political leaders. A lower discount rate or greater

  1. Uncertainty and global climate change research

    Tonn, B.E. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Weiher, R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO (United States)

    1994-06-01

    The Workshop on Uncertainty and Global Climate Change Research March 22--23, 1994, in Knoxville, Tennessee. This report summarizes the results and recommendations of the workshop. The purpose of the workshop was to examine in-depth the concept of uncertainty. From an analytical point of view, uncertainty is a central feature of global climate science, economics and decision making. The magnitude and complexity of uncertainty surrounding global climate change has made it quite difficult to answer even the most simple and important of questions-whether potentially costly action is required now to ameliorate adverse consequences of global climate change or whether delay is warranted to gain better information to reduce uncertainties. A major conclusion of the workshop is that multidisciplinary integrated assessments using decision analytic techniques as a foundation is key to addressing global change policy concerns. First, uncertainty must be dealt with explicitly and rigorously since it is and will continue to be a key feature of analysis and recommendations on policy questions for years to come. Second, key policy questions and variables need to be explicitly identified, prioritized, and their uncertainty characterized to guide the entire scientific, modeling, and policy analysis process. Multidisciplinary integrated assessment techniques and value of information methodologies are best suited for this task. In terms of timeliness and relevance of developing and applying decision analytic techniques, the global change research and policy communities are moving rapidly toward integrated approaches to research design and policy analysis.

  2. The Social Impact of Climate

    Hsiang, S. M.

    2013-12-01

    Managing climate change requires that we understand the social value of climate-related decisions. Rational decision-making demands that we weigh the potential benefits of climate-related investments against their costs. To date, it has been challenging to quantify the relative social benefit of living under different climatic conditions, so policy debates tend to focus on investment costs without considering their benefits. Here I will discuss challenges and advances in the measurement of climate's impact on society. By linking data and methods across physical and social sciences, we are beginning to understand when, where, and how climatic conditions have a causal impact on human wellbeing. I will present examples from this burgeoning interdisciplinary field that quantify the effect of temperature on macroeconomic performance, the effects of climate on human conflict, and the long-term health and economic impact of tropical cyclones. Each of these examples provide new insight into previously unknown benefits of various climate management strategies. I conclude by describing new efforts to systematically gather and compare findings from across the research community to support informed and rational climate management decisions.

  3. Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective

    Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J.; Abel, Guy J.

    2018-01-01

    The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate–migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability. PMID:29707262

  4. Climate change, ecosystem impacts, and management for Pacific salmon

    D.E. Schindler; X. Augerot; E. Fleishman; N.J. Mantua; B. Riddell; M. Ruckelshaus; J. Seeb; M. Webster

    2008-01-01

    As climate change intensifies, there is increasing interest in developing models that reduce uncertainties in projections of global climate and refine these projections to finer spatial scales. Forecasts of climate impacts on ecosystems are far more challenging and their uncertainties even larger because of a limited understanding of physical controls on biological...

  5. Assessment of climate change scenarios for Saudi Arabia using data from global climate models

    Husain, T.; Chowdhury, S.

    2009-01-01

    This study assesses available scientific information and data to predict changes in the climatic parameters in Saudi Arabia for understanding the impacts for mitigation and/or adaptation. Meteorological data from 26 synoptic stations were analyzed in this study. Various climatic change scenarios were reviewed and A 2 and B 2 climatic scenario families were selected. In order to assess long-term global impact, global climatic models were used to simulate changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind circulation. Using global climate model (GCM), monthly time series data was retrieved for Longitude 15 o N to 35 o N and 32.5 o E to 60 o E covering the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from 1970 to 2100 for all grids. Taking averages of 1970 to 2003 as baseline, change in temperature, relative humidity and precipitation were estimated for the base period. A comparative evaluation was performed for predictive capabilities of these models for temperature, precipitation and relative humidity. Available meteorological data from 1970 to 2003 was used to determine trends. This paper discusses the inconsistency in these parameters for decision-making and recommends future studies by linking global climate models with a suitable regional climate modeling tool. (author)

  6. Environmental health implications of global climate change

    Watson, Robert T.; Patz, Jonathan; Gubler, Duane J.; Parson, Edward A.; Vincent, James H.

    2005-07-01

    This paper reviews the background that has led to the now almost-universally held opinion in the scientific community that global climate change is occurring and is inescapably linked with anthropogenic activity. The potential implications to human health are considerable and very diverse. These include, for example, the increased direct impacts of heat and of rises in sea level, exacerbated air and water-borne harmful agents, and - associated with all the preceding - the emergence of environmental refugees. Vector-borne diseases, in particular those associated with blood-sucking arthropods such as mosquitoes, may be significantly impacted, including redistribution of some of those diseases to areas not previously affected. Responses to possible impending environmental and public health crises must involve political and socio-economic considerations, adding even greater complexity to what is already a difficult challenge. In some areas, adjustments to national and international public health practices and policies may be effective, at least in the short and medium terms. But in others, more drastic measures will be required. Environmental monitoring, in its widest sense, will play a significant role in the future management of the problem. (Author)

  7. Peak globalization. Climate change, oil depletion and global trade

    Curtis, Fred [Department of Economics, Drew University, Madison, NJ 07940 (United States)

    2009-12-15

    The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed. (author)

  8. Peak globalization. Climate change, oil depletion and global trade

    Curtis, Fred

    2009-01-01

    The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed. (author)

  9. Biomass burning in Indo-China peninsula and its impacts on regional air quality and global climate change-a review.

    Yadav, Ishwar Chandra; Linthoingambi Devi, Ningombam; Li, Jun; Syed, Jabir Hussain; Zhang, Gan; Watanabe, Hirozumi

    2017-08-01

    Although, many biomass burning (BB) emissions products (particulate matter and trace gases) are believed to be trans-boundary pollutants that originates from India and China (the two most populous countries in Asia), the information about BB emission and related contents is limited for Indo-China Peninsula (ICP) region. This motivated us to review this region pertaining to BB emission. The main objective of the review is to document the current status of BB emission in ICP region. In order to highlight the impact of BB on regional air quality and global climate change, the role of BB emission in ICP region is also discussed. Based on the available literature and modeling simulations studies, it is evidenced that ICP is one of the hotspot regional source for aerosols in terms of BB emissions. In addition, regional emissions through BB have significant implications for regional air quality especially in the neighboring countries such as China, Taiwan and India. Our assessment highlight that there is still a general lack of reliable data and research studies addressing BB related issues in context of environmental and human health. There is therefore a critical need to improve the current knowledge base, which should build upon the research experience and further research into these issues is considered vital to help inform future policies/control strategies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. An Agenda for Climate Impacts Science

    Kaye, J. A.

    2009-12-01

    The report Global Change Impacts in the United States released by the US Global Change Research Program in June 2009 identifies a number of areas in which inadequate information or understanding hampers our ability to estimate likely future climate change and its impacts. In this section of the report, the focus is on those areas of climate science that could contribute most towards advancing our knowledge of climate change impacts and those aspects of climate change responsible for these impacts in order to continue to guide decision making. The Report identifies the six most important gaps in knowledge and offers some thoughts on how to address those gaps: 1. Expand our understanding of climate change impacts. There is a clear need to increase understanding of how ecosystems, social and economic systems, human health, and the built environment will be affected by climate change in the context of other stresses. 2. Refine ability to project climate change, including extreme events, at local scales. While climate change is a global issue, it has a great deal of regional variability. There is an indisputable need to improve understanding of climate system effects at these smaller scales, because these are often the scales of decision-making in society. This includes advances in modeling capability and observations needed to address local scales and high-impact extreme events. 3. Expand capacity to provide decision makers and the public with relevant information on climate change and its impacts. Significant potential exists in the US to create more comprehensive measurement, archive, and data-access systems that could provide great benefit to society, which requires defining needed information, gathering it, expanding capacity to deliver it, and improving tools by which decision makers use it to best advantage. 4. Improve understanding of thresholds likely to lead to abrupt changes in climate or ecosystems. Potential areas of research include thresholds that could

  11. Stratospheric sulfate geoengineering impacts on global agriculture

    Xia, L.; Robock, A.; Lawrence, P.; Lombardozzi, D.

    2015-12-01

    Stratospheric sulfate geoengineering has been proposed to reduce the impacts of anthropogenic climate change. If it is ever used, it would change agricultural production, and so is one of the future climate scenarios for the third phase of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison. As an example of those impacts, we use the Community Land Model (CLM-crop 4.5) to simulate how climate changes from the G4 geoengineering scenario from the Geoengineering Modeling Intercomparison Project. The G4 geoengineering scenario specifies, in combination with RCP4.5 forcing, starting in 2020 daily injections of a constant amount of SO2 at a rate of 5 Tg SO2 per year at one point on the Equator into the lower stratosphere. Eight climate modeling groups have completed G4 simulations. We use the crop model to simulate the impacts of climate change (temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation) on the global agriculture system for five crops - rice, maize, soybeans, cotton, and sugarcane. In general, without irrigation, compared with the reference run (RCP4.5), global production of cotton, rice and sugarcane would increase significantly due to the cooling effect. Maize and soybeans show different regional responses. In tropical regions, maize and soybean have a higher yield in G4 compared with RCP4.5, while in the temperate regions they have a lower yield under a geoengineered climate. Impacts on specific countries in terms of different crop production depend on their locations. For example, the United States and Argentina show soybean production reduction of about 15% under G4 compared to RCP4.5, while Brazil increases soybean production by about 10%.

  12. Climate change: wildfire impact

    Dautbasic, Mirza; Crabtree, J.; Ioras, Florin; Abrudan, Ioan Vasile; Ratnasingam, Jega

    2011-01-01

    Every ecosystem is a complex organization of carefully mixed life forms; a dynamic and particularly sensible system. Consequently, their progressive decline may accelerate climate change and vice versa, influencing flora and fauna composition and distribution, resulting in the loss of biodiversity. Climate changes effects are the principal topics of this volume. Written by internationally renowned contributors, Biodiversity loss in a changing planet offers attractive study cases focused on bi...

  13. International Business and Global Climate Change

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.

    2008-11-15

    Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and climate change policy. Embedded in relevant management literature, this book gives a concise treatment of developments in policy and business activity on global, regional and national levels, using examples and systematic data from a large number of international companies. The first part outlines the international climate policy landscape and voluntary initiatives taken by companies, both alone and together with others. The second part examines companies' strategies, covering innovation for climate change, as well as compensation via emissions trading and carbon offsetting. Written by well-known experts in the field, International Business and Global Climate Change illustrates how an environmental topic becomes strategically important in a mainstream sense, affecting corporate decision-making, business processes, products, reputation, advertising, communication, accounting and finance.

  14. International Business and Global Climate Change

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.

    2008-11-01

    Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and climate change policy. Embedded in relevant management literature, this book gives a concise treatment of developments in policy and business activity on global, regional and national levels, using examples and systematic data from a large number of international companies. The first part outlines the international climate policy landscape and voluntary initiatives taken by companies, both alone and together with others. The second part examines companies' strategies, covering innovation for climate change, as well as compensation via emissions trading and carbon offsetting. Written by well-known experts in the field, International Business and Global Climate Change illustrates how an environmental topic becomes strategically important in a mainstream sense, affecting corporate decision-making, business processes, products, reputation, advertising, communication, accounting and finance

  15. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H.

    1992-05-01

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available

  16. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H. [eds.

    1992-05-01

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.

  17. Clean coal technologies and global climate change

    Long, R.S.

    1993-01-01

    The role for Clean Coal Technologies is discussed in the context of the global climate change debate. Global climate change is, of course as the name implies, a global issue. This clearly distinguishes this issue from acid rain or ozone non-attainment, which are regional in nature. Therefore, the issue requires a global perspective, one that looks at the issue not just from a US policy standpoint but from an international policy view. This includes the positions of other individual nations, trading blocks, common interest groups, and the evolving United Nations bureaucracy. It is assumed that as the global economy continues to grow, energy demand will also grow. With growth in economic activity and energy use, will come growth in worldwide greenhouse gas emissions, including growth in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Much of this growth will occur in developing economies which intend to fuel their growth with coal-fired power, especially China and India. Two basic premises which set out the boundaries of this topic are presented. First, there is the premise that global climate change is occurring, or is about to occur, and that governments must do something to mitigate the causes of climate change. Although this premise is highly rebuttable, and not based on scientific certainty, political science has driven it to the forefront of the debate. Second is the premise that advanced combustion CCTs, with their higher efficiencies, will result in lower CO 2 emissions, and hence lessen any contribution of greater coal use to potential global climate change. This promise is demonstrably true. This discussion focuses on recent and emerging public sector policy actions, which may in large part establish a new framework in which the private sector will find new challenges and new opportunities

  18. Economic impacts of climate change in Australia: framework and analysis

    Ford, Melanie

    2007-01-01

    Full text: There is growing interest in understanding the potential impacts of climate change in Australia, and especially the economic impacts of 'inaction'. In this study, a preliminary analysis of the possible economic impacts of future climate change in Australia is undertaken using ABARE's general equilibrium model of the global economy, GTEM. In order to understand the potential economy-wide economic impacts, the broad climatic trends that Australia is likely to experience over the next several decades are canvassed and the potential economic and non-economic impacts on key risk areas, such as water resources, agriculture and forests, health, industry and human settlements and the ecosystems, are identified. A more detailed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change are undertaken by developing two case studies. In the first case study, the economic impact of climate change and reduced water availability on the agricultural sector is assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin. In the second case study, the sectoral economic impacts on the Australian resources sector of a projected decline in global economic activity due to climate change is analysed. The key areas of required development to more fully understand the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of climate change are also discussed including issues associated with estimating both non-market and market impacts. Finally, an analytical framework for undertaking integrated assessment of climate change impacts domestically and globally is developed

  19. Climate change impacts: an Ontario perspective

    Mortsch, L.

    1995-11-01

    Significant changes in the climate system which are likely to affect biophysical, social and economic systems in various ways, were discussed. Trends in greenhouse gas levels show that during the 20. century, human activity has changed the make-up of the atmosphere and its greenhouse effect properties. A pilot study on the impacts of climate change identified changes in the water regime such as declines in net basin supply, lake levels and outflows, as important concerns. These changes would have impacts on water quality, wetlands, municipal water supply, hydroelectric power generation, commercial shipping, tourism and recreation, and to a lesser extent, on food productions. Climate impact assessments suggest that world conditions will change significantly as a result. Those with less resources are likely to be most affected by climate change, and the impacts on other regions of the world will be more significant to Ontario than the direct impacts on Ontario itself. In an effort to keep pace with global changes, Ontario will have to limit emissions, conduct research in innovative technology and develop greater awareness of the risk of climate change. refs., tabs., figs

  20. Impact of Spatial Scales on the Intercomparison of Climate Scenarios

    Luo, Wei; Steptoe, Michael; Chang, Zheng; Link, Robert; Clarke, Leon; Maciejewski, Ross

    2017-01-01

    Scenario analysis has been widely applied in climate science to understand the impact of climate change on the future human environment, but intercomparison and similarity analysis of different climate scenarios based on multiple simulation runs remain challenging. Although spatial heterogeneity plays a key role in modeling climate and human systems, little research has been performed to understand the impact of spatial variations and scales on similarity analysis of climate scenarios. To address this issue, the authors developed a geovisual analytics framework that lets users perform similarity analysis of climate scenarios from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) using a hierarchical clustering approach.

  1. Climate change and global warming potentials

    Vate, J.F. van de

    1996-01-01

    Climate change and the global budgets of the two main energy consumption related greenhouse gases, CO 2 and CH 4 , are discussed. The global warming potential (GWP) of the non-CO 2 greenhouse gases is defined and the large range of GWPs of CH 4 in the literature is discussed. GWPs are expected to play an important role in energy policies and negotiations concerning lowering greenhouse gas emissions. (author). 20 refs, 4 figs, 4 tabs

  2. Governing Global Climate Change: Past Achievements, Future Prospects

    Ella Kokotsis

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The cumulative effects of a significantly changing climate are projected to have disastrous implications on the world’s natural habitats, and along with that, are projected to drastically increase the rate and likelihood of violent conflict globally, particularly in high-density, urban, poverty hotspots. Limiting the effects of a changing climate is thus critical in influencing multiple societal goals including equitable sustainable development, human health, biodiversity, food security and access to reliable energy sources. This paper argues that the G7/8 has led global climate governance in ways other international environmental institu­tions have largely failed to do. It has done so largely by placing climate protection at the forefront of its policy objectives, alongside economic, health, energy and security goals, and reaching consensus repeatedly amongst its leaders on the impor­tance of stabilizing emissions through energy efficiency, conservation, investment and technological innovation. Moreover, this chapter argues that the summit’s predominant capability, its constricted participation, democratic convergence and political cohesion – as well as the combined effects of global shocks – have all had positive impacts on the G7/8’s success in mitigating climate change. Following a detailed process-tracing exercise over the summit’s 40-year history in which clear surges and retreats on global climate governance are outlined, this paper concludes by assessing the G7/8’s accountability record on climate mitigation and outlines a set of prescriptive recommendations, allowing for the delivery of a more tangible, coherent, results-driven accountability process for global climate governance.

  3. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    Hansen, G.E.

    2015-01-01

    Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    Gerrit Hansen

    Global climate change is unequivocal, and greenhouse gas emissions continue rising despite international mitigation efforts. Hence whether and to what extent the impacts of human induced

  4. Antarctic snow and global climate

    Granberg, H.B.

    2001-01-01

    Global circulation models (GCM) indicate that global warming will be most pronounced at polar regions and high latitudes, causing concern about the stability of the Antarctic ice cap. A project entitled the Seasonal Snow in Antarctica examined the properties of the near surface snow to determine the current conditions that influence snow cover development. The goal was to assess the response of the snow cover in Queen Maud Land (QML) to an increased atmospheric carbon dioxide content. The Antarctic snow cover in QML was examined as part of the FINNARP expeditions in 1999 and 2000 which examined the processes that influence the snow cover. Its energy and mass balance were also assessed by examining the near surface snow strata in shallow (1-2 m) pits and by taking measurements of environmental variables. This made it possible to determine if the glacier is in danger of melting at this northerly location in the Antarctic. The study also made it possible to determine which variables need to change and by how much, for significant melting to occur. It was shown that the Antarctic anticyclone creates particular conditions that protect the snow cover from melting. The anticyclone brings dry air from the stratosphere during most of the year and is exempt from the water vapour feedback. It was concluded that even a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide will not produce major snow melt runoff. 8 refs

  5. Papers of the CWRA climate change symposium : understanding climate change impacts on Manitoba's water resources

    2003-01-01

    This symposium provided an opportunity for discussions on climate change issues with particular reference to the impacts on Manitoba's water resources. The presentations addressed issues of importance to governments, scientists, academics, managers, consultants and the general public. Topics of discussion ranged from climate change impacts on water quality, wetlands, hydropower, fisheries and drought, to adaptation to climate change. Recent advances in global and regional climate modelling were highlighted along with paleo-environmental indicators of climate change. The objective was to provide a better understanding of the science of climate change. The conference featured 16 presentations of which 1 was indexed separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

  6. Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble.

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Giorgi, Filippo

    2012-01-10

    We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21 st century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways. In addition, areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and Central America/western North America also emerge as prominent regional climate change hotspots in response to intermediate and high levels of forcing. Comparisons of different periods of the two forcing pathways suggest that the pattern of aggregate change is fairly robust to the level of global warming below approximately 2°C of global warming (relative to the late-20 th -century baseline), but not at the higher levels of global warming that occur in the late-21 st -century period of the RCP8.5 pathway, with areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic exhibiting particular intensification of relative aggregate climate change in response to high levels of forcing. Although specific impacts will clearly be shaped by the interaction of climate change with human and biological vulnerabilities, our identification of climate change hotspots can help to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions by quantifying the rate, magnitude and causes of the aggregate climate response in different parts of the world.

  7. Global biomass burning. Atmospheric, climatic, and biospheric implications

    Levine, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Biomass burning is a significant source of atmospheric gases and, as such, may contribute to global climate changes. Biomass burning includes burning forests and savanna grasslands for land clearing, burning agricultural stubble and waste after harvesting, and burning biomass fuels. The chapters in this volume include the following topics: remote sensing of biomass burning from space;geographical distribution of burning; combustion products of burning in tropical, temperate and boreal ecosystems; burning as a global source of atmospheric gases and particulates; impacts of biomass burning gases and particulates on global climate; and the role of biomass burning on biodiversity and past global extinctions. A total of 1428 references are cited for the 63 chapters. Individual chapters are indexed separately for the data bases

  8. Global alteration of climate - hopes and fears

    Viktorov, V.V.

    1992-01-01

    Problems concerning gaseous emission affecting the global climate alteration connected with hotbed effect are considered. Economical and social-political ways of solution of the problem of minimization of gaseous wastes are described. Role of nuclear power plants and alternative power plants in the hotbed effect are analyzed. International cooperation in environmental protection policy is discussed

  9. The emergence of global climate law

    Farber, D.A.; Peeters, Marjan; Farber, Daniel A.; Peeters, Marjan

    2016-01-01

    As the chapters in this Encyclopedia demonstrate, climate law is a dynamic and multidisciplinary field, implicating many diverse fields of law at all levels from municipal planning through multinational treaties. The outlines of an emerging global law can be discerned, including shared principles

  10. Climate change, global risks, challenges and decisions. Synthesis report

    Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Schellnhuber, H.J.

    2009-03-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009 (the 15th Conference of the Parties, COP-15) will be a critical step in developing a global response to the threat of climate change caused by human activities. The primary scientific input to those negotiations is the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2007. The IPCC report has already been instrumental in increasing both public and political awareness of the societal risks associated with unchecked emission of greenhouse gases. Since the production of the IPCC report, new knowledge has emerged that furthers understanding of the impacts of human influence on the climate and the response options and approaches that are available to tackle this complex issue. To bring this new knowledge together, the International Alliance of Research Universities organised an international scientific congress on climate change, Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions, which was held in Copenhagen from 10-12 March 2009. Participants came from nearly 80 different countries and contributed with more than 1400 scientific presentations. Abstracts for all of the scientific presentations made can be found at www.iop.org/EJ/volume/1755-1315/6, and a transcript of the closing plenary session can be found at environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/opinion/39126. This synthesis report presents an up-to-date overview of a broad range of research relevant to climate change - including fundamental climate science, the impacts of a changing climate on society and environment, and the many tools and approaches available to deal effectively with the challenge of climate change. (LN)

  11. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-01-01

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs

  12. Climatic impact of aircraft induced ozone changes

    Sausen, R; Feneberg, B; Ponater, M [Deutsche Forschungs- und Versuchsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere

    1998-12-31

    The effect of aircraft induced ozone changes on the global climate is studied by means of the general circulation model ECHAM4. The zonal mean temperature signal is considered. In order to estimate the statistical significance of the climatic impact a multivariate statistical test hierarchy combined with the fingerprint method has been applied. Sensitivity experiments show a significant coherent temperature response pattern in the northern extra-tropics for mid-latitude summer conditions. It consists of a tropospheric warming of about 0.2 K with a corresponding stratospheric cooling of the same magnitude. (author) 16 refs.

  13. Climatic impact of aircraft induced ozone changes

    Sausen, R.; Feneberg, B.; Ponater, M. [Deutsche Forschungs- und Versuchsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere

    1997-12-31

    The effect of aircraft induced ozone changes on the global climate is studied by means of the general circulation model ECHAM4. The zonal mean temperature signal is considered. In order to estimate the statistical significance of the climatic impact a multivariate statistical test hierarchy combined with the fingerprint method has been applied. Sensitivity experiments show a significant coherent temperature response pattern in the northern extra-tropics for mid-latitude summer conditions. It consists of a tropospheric warming of about 0.2 K with a corresponding stratospheric cooling of the same magnitude. (author) 16 refs.

  14. Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth.

    Vörösmarty, C J; Green, P; Salisbury, J; Lammers, R B

    2000-07-14

    The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing to a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question.

  15. The Role of Volcanic Activity in Climate and Global Change

    Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2015-09-23

    Explosive volcanic eruptions are magnificent events that in many ways affect the Earth\\'s natural processes and climate. They cause sporadic perturbations of the planet\\'s energy balance, activating complex climate feedbacks and providing unique opportunities to better quantify those processes. We know that explosive eruptions cause cooling in the atmosphere for a few years, but we have just recently realized that volcanic signals can be seen in the subsurface ocean for decades. The volcanic forcing of the previous two centuries offsets the ocean heat uptake and diminishes global warming by about 30%. The explosive volcanism of the twenty-first century is unlikely to either cause any significant climate signal or to delay the pace of global warming. The recent interest in dynamic, microphysical, chemical, and climate impacts of volcanic eruptions is also excited by the fact that these impacts provide a natural analogue for climate geoengineering schemes involving deliberate development of an artificial aerosol layer in the lower stratosphere to counteract global warming. In this chapter we aim to discuss these recently discovered volcanic effects and specifically pay attention to how we can learn about the hidden Earth-system mechanisms activated by explosive volcanic eruptions. To demonstrate these effects we use our own model results when possible along with available observations, as well as review closely related recent publications.

  16. Global but fair. Controvert the climatic change, allow development; Global aber gerecht. Klimawandel bekaempfen, Entwicklung ermoeglichen

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    The book includes the following chapters: global but fair: climate compatible development for everybody; climatic change consequences und vulnerabilities; ethic dimension: fairness in the context of climatic change and poverty; options and challenges for emissions abatement; options for the adaptation to the climatic change; global deal for climate and development policy; convert the climatic change, allow development: ten political messages.

  17. Assessing the environmental consequences of global climate and economic changes in Venezuela: Impacts of the greenhouse effect and of free trade agreements

    Acevedo, M.F.; Harwell, M.A.

    1993-01-01

    The ecological resources of most Latin American countries are subject to intense pressures for economic and industrial development which need to be balanced with local and global concerns about the long term sustainability of that resource base. Global issues and their potential long term effects should not be ignored when environmental policy strategies at the national level are elaborated. In this paper, the potential environmental consequences of two important global changes are examined, by taking Venezuela as a country case study: changes in climate, temperature, precipitation and radiation, generated by the greenhouse effect and changes in environmental stresses originating from shifts in local economic activity due to changing global trade, specifically free trade agreements. Both assessments are conducted using scenario-consequence approaches and expert judgment. The first analysis reported here is an example of the application of simulation models of global climate and local ecosystems, whereas the second analysis demonstrates the application of screening methodology which relies on processing of qualitative information. The approaches illustrated here are generic and can be applied to other Latin American countries

  18. Global Climate Change and Infectious Diseases

    EK Shuman

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is occurring as a result of warming of the earth’s atmosphere due to human activity generating excess amounts of greenhouse gases. Because of its potential impact on the hydrologic cycle and severe weather events, climate change is expected to have an enormous effect on human health, including on the burden and distribution of many infectious diseases. The infectious diseases that will be most affected by climate change include those that are spread by insect vectors and by contaminated water. The burden of adverse health effects due to these infectious diseases will fall primarily on developing countries, while it is the developed countries that are primarily responsible for climate change. It is up to governments and individuals to take the lead in halting climate change, and we must increase our understanding of the ecology of infectious diseases in order to protect vulnerable populations.

  19. Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)

    Lúcio, F.

    2012-04-01

    Climate information at global, regional and national levels and in timeframes ranging from the past, present and future climate is fundamental for planning, sustainable development and to help organizations, countries and individuals adopt appropriate strategies to adapt to climate variability and change. Based on this recognition, in 2009, the Heads of States and Governments, Ministers and Heads of Delegation representing more than 150 countries, 34 United Nations Organizations and 36 Governmental and non-Governmental international organizations, and more than 2500 experts present at the Third World Climate Conference (WCC - 3) unanimously agreed to develop the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) to strengthen the production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and services. They requested that a taskforce of high-level independent advisors be appointed to prepare a report, including recommendations on the proposed elements of the Framework and the next steps for its implementation. The high-level taskforce produced a report which was endorsed by the Sixteeth World Meteorological Congress XVI in May 2011. A process for the development of the implementation plan and the governance structure of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) is well under way being led by the World Meteorological Organization within the UN system. This process involves consultations that engage a broad range of stakeholders including governments, UN and international agencies, regional organizations and specific communities of practitioners. These consultations are being conducted to facilitate discussions of key issues related to the production, availability, delivery and application of climate services in the four priority sectors of the framework (agriculture, water, health and disaster risk reduction) so that the implementation plan of the Framework is a true reflection of the aspirations of stakeholders. The GFCS is envisaged as

  20. Asia's changing role in global climate change.

    Siddiqi, Toufiq A

    2008-10-01

    Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

  1. A dissenting view on global climate change

    Linden, H.R.

    1993-01-01

    Global warming alarmists are vastly overstating the risks of climate change, often to further other agendas. The science of global warming simply does not support their claims of impending doom - as policy makers would be wise to note. There is scientific consensus on the existence of a benign natural greenhouse effect that keeps the Earth habitable by raising its average surface temperature by about 33 degrees C. Global warming alarmists, however, have falsely claimed that this consensus also extends to the belief that human activity is significantly enhancing this effect. This is simply untrue. Based on a wealth of new information, there is now strong and rapidly growing scientific dissent on the inevitability of catastrophic and even mildly detrimental anthropogenic climate change. This casts serious doubts on the need for binding international agreements to curtail emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion, or to limit conversion of tropical forests to agricultural uses in areas where increased food supply is a critical issue

  2. Biological diversity, ecology and global climate change

    Jutro, P.R.

    1991-01-01

    Worldwide climate change and loss of biodiversity are issues of global scope and importance that have recently become subjects of considerable public concern. Their perceived threat lies in their potential to disrupt ecological functioning and stability rather than from any direct threat they may pose to human health. Over the last 5 years, the international scientific community and the general public have become aware of the implications that atmospheric warming might have for world climate patterns and the resulting changes in the persistence, location, and composition of ecosystems worldwide. Human activities are currently responsible for a species loss rate that is the most extreme in millions of years, and an alarmingly increasing rate of transformation and fragmentation of natural landscapes. In the case of both global warming and reduction of biological diversity, man is affecting nature in an unprecedented fashion, on a global scale, and with unpredictable and frequently irreversible results

  3. Impacts of climate change on Ontario's forests. Forest research information paper number 143

    Buse, L.J.; Colombo, S.J.

    1998-01-01

    Reviews literature concerning the effects of global climate change on forest plants and communities, and provides opinions on the potential impacts that climate change may have on Ontario forests. Sections of the review discuss the following: The climate of Ontario in the 21st century as predicted by climate models; forest hydrology in relation to climate change; insects and climate change; impacts on fungi in the forest ecosystem; impacts on forest fires and their management; plant physiological responses; genetic implications of climate change; forest vegetation dynamics; the use of models in global climate change studies; and forest management responses to climate change

  4. Oceans, microbes, and global climate change

    Danovaro, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Sea-surface warming, sea-ice melting and related freshening, changes in circulation and mixing regimes, and ocean acidification induced by the present climate changes are modifying marine ecosystem structure and function and have the potential to alter the cycling of carbon and nutrients in surface oceans. Changing climate has direct and indirect consequences on marine life and on microbial components. Prokaryotes (Bacteria and Archaea), viruses and other microbial life forms are impacted by ...

  5. Using long-term ecosystem service and biodiversity data to study the impacts and adaptation options in response to climate change: insights from the global ILTER sites network

    Vihervaara, P.; D'Amato, D.; Forsius, M.; Angelstam, P.; Baessler, C.; Balvanera, P.; Boldgiv, B.; Bourgeron, P.; Dick, J.; Kanka, R.; Klotz, S.; Maass, M.; Melecis, V.; Petřík, Petr; Shibata, H.; Tang, J.; Thompson, J.; Zacharias, S.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 5, č. 1 (2013), s. 53-66 ISSN 1877-3435 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 7AMB12SK156 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : climate change * long-term ecological monitoring * prmanen research plot Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 2.758, year: 2013

  6. Strategies for reducing the impacts of surface transportation on global climate change : a synthesis of policy research and state and local mitigation strategies

    2009-03-01

    Climate change is likely to have more impact on the future of surface transportation than any other issue. The challenges and implications for surface transportation and for state DOTs include: the need to support major GHG reductions, the need to me...

  7. Global climate change and California agriculture

    Lewis, L.; Rains, W.; Kennedy, L.

    1991-01-01

    This paper has highlighted some of the impacts that a warmer climate may have on agriculture in California. Because of the state's diverse geomorphology it is difficult to predict what crops will grow in which locations under future climate regimes. However, the potential interactions between warmer temperatures, higher CO 2 concentrations, and the factors that affect plant and animal growth may have major consequences for the competitive position of the state's agriculture. Forward-thinking research and public policies are required to assure that responses to climate change will optimize production systems under future constraints

  8. CLIMATE CHANGES: CAUSES AND IMPACT

    Camelia Slave

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Present brings several environmental problems for people. Many of these are closely related, but by far the most important problem is the climate change. In the course of Earth evolution, climate has changed many times, sometimes dramatically. Warmer eras always replaced and were in turn replaced by glacial ones. However, the climate of the past almost ten thousand years has been very stable. During this period human civilization has also developed. In the past nearly 100 years - since the beginning of industrialization - the global average temperature has increased by approx. 0.6 ° C (after IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, faster than at any time in the last 1000 years.

  9. European air quality in the 2030's and 2050's: Impacts of global and regional emission trends and of climate change

    Lacressonniere, G.; Peuch, V.H.; Vautard, R.

    2014-01-01

    A chemistry-transport model using two-way nested regional (Europe) and global domains is used to evaluate the effects of climate and emission changes on air quality over Europe for the 2030's and 2050's, by comparison with the emissions and climate of the recent past. We investigated the pollutant levels under the implementations of reduced anthropogenic emissions (NOx, SO 2 , etc) over Europe and, at the global scale, under the Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP8.5) scenario produced by the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of IPCC. The simulations show an increase in surface ozone in northwestern Europe and a decrease in southern areas in the future horizons studied here. Over Europe, average O 3 levels steadily increase with a rate of around 3 mg m 3 per decade in summer. For this pollutant, the contributions of long range transport over the Northern Hemisphere and climate changes have been assessed and appear to counterbalance and even slightly outweigh the effects of European reductions in precursors' anthropogenic emissions. The tropospheric ozone budget is found to be dominated by enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchanges in future climate while the chemical budget is significantly reduced. Our results show that a NOx-limited chemical regime will stretch over most of Europe, including especially Western France in the future. These findings allow supporting efficient future precursor emissions abatement strategies in order to limit O 3 pollution and maintain or improve air quality standards in Europe. (authors)

  10. Future health impact assessment of air pollution at the global, European and Ile-de-France scales: the Air Pollution Climate Health Impact Assessment (A-C HIA) project

    Likhvar, Victoria; Hauglustaine, Didier; Kinney, Patrick; Colette, Augustin; Valari, Myrto; Markakis, Konstandinos; Pascal, Mathilde; Medina, Sylvia

    2016-01-01

    Ozone and fine particles are current risk factors for premature death all over the globe. In coming decades, substantial improvements in public health may be achieved by reducing air pollution. The overall objective of the A-C HIA project (2011-2014) was to apply state of the art climate, air quality, and health modelling tools to assess future health impacts of O 3 and PM2.5 under different scenarios of emissions for the period 2030-2050. A-C HIA created an interdisciplinary team to study the impacts of climate change on health through air quality changes, and to establish longer-term collaborations between communities. This question has been explored at three spatial scales: global, regional (Europe), and urban (ile-de-France). We f ind that 1.5 millions of cardio-vascular deaths could be delayed each year in 2030 compared to 2010. In Europe, air-pollution-related mortality should decrease in 2030 compared to 2010. At the finer scale (ile-de-France) we found that the respiratory mortality should increase over the highly populated area of Paris. In the coming years, substantial benefits to public health could be achieved through coordinated strategies to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and improving air quality. (authors)

  11. Assessing the impact of aviation on climate

    Karen Marais

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available We present an assessment of the marginal climate impacts of new aviation activities. We use impulse response functions derived from carbon-cycle and atmospheric models to estimate changes in surface temperature for various aviation impacts (CO2, NOx on methane, NOx on ozone, sulfates, soot, and contrails/induced cirrus. We use different damage functions and discount rates to explore health, welfare and ecological costs for a range of assumptions and scenarios. Since uncertainty is high regarding many aviation effects, we explicitly capture some uncertainty by representing several model parameters as probabilistic distributions. The uncertainties are then propagated using Monte Carlo analysis to derive estimates for the impact of these uncertainties on the marginal future climate impacts. Our goal is to provide a framework that will communicate the potential impacts of aviation on climate change under different scenarios and assumptions, and that will allow decision-makers to compare these potential impacts to other aviation environmental impacts. We present results to describe the influence of parametric uncertainties, scenarios, and assumptions for valuation on the expected marginal future costs of aviation impacts. Estimates of the change in global average surface temperature due to aviation are most sensitive to changes in climate sensitivity, the radiative forcing attributed to short-lived effects (in particular those related to contrails and aviation-induced cirrus, and the choice of emissions scenario. Estimates of marginal future costs of aviation are most sensitive to assumptions regarding the discount rate, followed by assumptions regarding climate sensitivity, and the choice of emissions scenario.

  12. Mode, load, and specific climate impact from passenger trips.

    Borken-Kleefeld, Jens; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Berntsen, Terje

    2013-07-16

    The climate impact from a long-distance trip can easily vary by a factor of 10 per passenger depending on mode choice, vehicle efficiency, and occupancy. In this paper we compare the specific climate impact of long-distance car travel with coach, train, or air trips. We account for both, CO2 emissions and short-lived climate forcers. This particularly affects the ranking of aircraft's climate impact relative to other modes. We calculate the specific impact for the Global Warming Potential and the Global Temperature Change Potential, considering time horizons between 20 and 100 years, and compare with results accounting only for CO2 emissions. The car's fuel efficiency and occupancy are central whether the impact from a trip is as high as from air travel or as low as from train travel. These results can be used for carbon-offsetting schemes, mode choice and transportation planning for climate mitigation.

  13. Reversible and irreversible impacts of greenhouse gas emissions in multi-century projections with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

    Froelicher, Thomas L.; Joos, Fortunat [University of Bern, Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, Bern (Switzerland); University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern (Switzerland)

    2010-12-15

    The legacy of historical and the long-term impacts of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions on climate, ocean acidification, and carbon-climate feedbacks are investigated with a coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Emission commitment scenarios with zero emissions after year 2100 and 21st century emissions of 1,800, 900, and 0 gigatons of carbon are run up to year 2500. The reversibility and irreversibility of impacts is quantified by comparing anthropogenically-forced regional changes with internal, unforced climate variability. We show that the influence of historical emissions and of non-CO{sub 2} agents is largely reversible on the regional scale. Forced changes in surface temperature and precipitation become smaller than internal variability for most land and ocean grid cells in the absence of future carbon emissions. In contrast, continued carbon emissions over the 21st century cause irreversible climate change on centennial to millennial timescales in most regions and impacts related to ocean acidification and sea level rise continue to aggravate for centuries even if emissions are stopped in year 2100. Undersaturation of the Arctic surface ocean with respect to aragonite, a mineral form of calcium carbonate secreted by marine organisms, is imminent and remains widespread. The volume of supersaturated water providing habitat to calcifying organisms is reduced from preindustrial 40 to 25% in 2100 and to 10% in 2300 for the high emission case. We conclude that emission trading schemes, related to the Kyoto Process, should not permit trading between emissions of relatively short-lived agents and CO{sub 2} given the irreversible impacts of anthropogenic carbon emissions. (orig.)

  14. Visualization of the chains of risks under global climate change

    Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Sueyoshi, T.; Yoshimori, M.; Iwase, K.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Honda, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Masaki, Y.; Ito, A.; Iizumi, T.; Sakurai, G.; Okada, M.; Emori, S.; Oki, T.

    2014-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change possibly causes various impacts on human society and ecosystem. Here, we call possible damages or benefits caused by the future climate change as "climate risks". Many climate risks are closely interconnected with each other by direct cause-effect relationship. In this study, the major climate risks are comprehensively summarized based on the survey of studies in the literature using IPCC AR5 etc, and their cause-effect relationship are visualized by a "network diagram". This research is conducted by the collaboration between the experts of various fields, such as water, energy, agriculture, health, society, and eco-system under the project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). First, the climate risks are classified into 9 categories (water, energy, food, health, disaster, industry, society, ecosystem, and tipping elements). Second, researchers of these fields in our project survey the research articles, and pick up items of climate risks, and possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items. A long list of the climate risks is summarized into ~130, and that of possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items is summarized into ~300, because the network diagram would be illegible if the number of the risk items and cause-effect relationship is too large. Here, we only consider the risks that could occur if climate mitigation policies are not conducted. Finally, the chain of climate risks is visualized by creating a "network diagram" based on a network graph theory (Fruchtman & Reingold algorithm). Through the analysis of network diagram, we find that climate risks at various sectors are closely related. For example, the decrease in the precipitation under the global climate change possibly causes the decrease in river runoff and the decrease in soil moisture, which causes the changes in crop production. The changes in crop production can have an impact on society by

  15. Global warming: Climate scenarios and international agriculture

    Downing, T.E.; Parry, M.L.

    1991-01-01

    The potential impacts of climatic change on international agriculture are summarized, drawing on results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change impacts working group. The four different climate change scenarios used for investigating impacts: historical studies, artificial scenarios, analogues, and general circulation models, are briefly reviewed. Climate change will affect agriculture in three ways: direct effects of increased carbon dioxide concentration, effects of altered weather patterns, and secondary effects on social and economic situations. The effect of increased carbon dioxide concentration is uncertain, but potentially will enhance plant growth and water use efficiency. The sensitivity of grain maize to incremental changes in annual temperature is described, with the suitable zone expanding from the middle of Europe to southern Scandinavia. Potential damage from insect pests may increase under warmer climates, with northerly movement of insect breeding grounds. Temperature increases are likely to lengthen the growing season where temperature is a limiting factor, especially at higher lattitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Higher temperatures, shorter periods of grain filling, and reduced winter chilling will reduce potential yields in current core grain-growing areas, and changing moisture regimes will shift agricultural patterns. The horn of Africa and parts of western Africa are likely to suffer enhanced food supply vulnerability. 16 refs., 4 figs

  16. State of the Climate Monthly Overview - Global Snow & Ice

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The State of the Climate is a collection of periodic summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale. The State of the Climate...

  17. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  18. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H.; Posch, M.

    1995-01-01

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  19. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  20. State of Climate 2011 - Global Ocean Phytoplankton

    Siegel, D. A.; Antoine, D.; Behrenfeld, M. J.; d'Andon, O. H. Fanton; Fields, E.; Franz, B. A.; Goryl, P.; Maritorena, S.; McClain, C. R.; Wang, M.; hide

    2012-01-01

    Phytoplankton photosynthesis in the sun lit upper layer of the global ocean is the overwhelmingly dominant source of organic matter that fuels marine ecosystems. Phytoplankton contribute roughly half of the global (land and ocean) net primary production (NPP; gross photosynthesis minus plant respiration) and phytoplankton carbon fixation is the primary conduit through which atmospheric CO2 concentrations interact with the ocean s carbon cycle. Phytoplankton productivity depends on the availability of sunlight, macronutrients (e.g., nitrogen, phosphorous), and micronutrients (e.g., iron), and thus is sensitive to climate-driven changes in the delivery of these resources to the euphotic zone

  1. Tropical forest policies for the global climate

    De Groot, W.T.; Kamminga, E.M.

    1995-01-01

    A summary is given of the approach and findings of the NRP project 'Local Actors and Global Tree Cover Policies'. The aim of this project was to identify the most effective and efficient options for global climate policies focusing on the tropical forest. Tropical deforestation is a process with very complex and variable causes. In the project's conclusions, therefore, much care has been given to arrive at a coherent image of what really counts most in the myriad of factors, actors, policy levels and policy options. 5 refs

  2. Cloud Compute for Global Climate Station Summaries

    Baldwin, R.; May, B.; Cogbill, P.

    2017-12-01

    Global Climate Station Summaries are simple indicators of observational normals which include climatic data summarizations and frequency distributions. These typically are statistical analyses of station data over 5-, 10-, 20-, 30-year or longer time periods. The summaries are computed from the global surface hourly dataset. This dataset totaling over 500 gigabytes is comprised of 40 different types of weather observations with 20,000 stations worldwide. NCEI and the U.S. Navy developed these value added products in the form of hourly summaries from many of these observations. Enabling this compute functionality in the cloud is the focus of the project. An overview of approach and challenges associated with application transition to the cloud will be presented.

  3. Climate change at the coast: from global to local

    Watkinson, A.R.

    2009-01-01

    The IPCC has recently documented substantial changes in the global heat content of the oceans, salinity, sea level, thermal expansion and biogeochemistry. Over the 21. century anticipated climate related changes include: a rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more; increases in sea surface temperatures up to 3 deg. C; an intensification of tropical and extra tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/ run-off; and ocean acidification. The Tyndall Centre has been exploring how to down-scale the global analysis to the local level within the framework of a coastal simulator. The simulator provides information on possible future states of the coast through the 21. Century under a range of climate and socio-economic futures and shoreline management options. It links models within a nested framework, recognizing three scales: (1) global, (2) regional, and (3) local. The linked models describe a range of processes, including marine climate (waves, surges and mean sea level), sand bank morpho-dynamics, wave transformation, shoreline morpho-dynamics, built environment scenarios, ecosystem change, and erosion and flood risk. Analyses from the simulator reinforce conclusions from IPCC WG2: coasts will be exposed to increasing risks over coming decades due to many compounding climate-change factors; the impact of climate change on coasts will be exacerbated by increasing human induced pressures; the unavoidability of sea-level rise even in the longer-term frequently conflicts with present day human development patterns and trends. (author)

  4. Global climate change and cryospheric evolution in China

    Qin D.

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Major outcomes of Working Group I, IPCC AR4 (2007, as well as the recent understandings from our regional climatic assessments in China were summarized. Changes of cryosphere in China, one of the major components in regional climate system, is specifically reviewed. Under the global/regional warming, all components of cryosphere in China (Tibetan Plateau and surroundings including glaciers, frozen ground (including permafrost and snow cover show rapid decay in the last decades. These changes have big socioeconomic impacts in west China, thus encourages both government and scientists pay more and more attention to this field.

  5. Health effects of global climate change

    Ghauri, B.; Salam, M.; Mirza I.

    1992-01-01

    This paper identifies potential health problems that may arise from global climates changes caused by increasing green house gases and depletion in the ozone layer. The mankind is responsible for saving or destroying the environment. There are many forms which can pollute the environment like greenhouse activities. The greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane and ozone etc. cause pollutants in the environment. (A.B.)

  6. The dairy cow and global climate changes

    Flávio Baccari Jr

    2015-01-01

     High producing dairy cows are more sensitive to heat stress due mainly to their higher resting metabolic rate as compared to low producing and dry cows. Their responses to increasing levels of the temperature-humidity and the black globe-humidity indices are discussed as well as some aspects of heat tolerance as related to body temperature increase and milk production decrease. Some mitigation and adaptation practices are recommended to face the challenges of global climate changes.

  7. Impacts of globalization in health.

    Ioannou, Andriani; Mechili, Aggelos; Kolokathi, Aikaterini; Diomidous, Marianna

    2013-01-01

    Globalization is the process of international integration arising from the interchange of world views, products, ideas, and other aspects of culture. Globalization describes the interplay of macro-social forces across cultures. The purpose of this study is a systematic review of the bibliography on the impacts of globalization in health. The consequences of globalization on health present a twofold dimension, on the one hand affects the health of the population and on the other hand organization and functioning of health systems. As a result of globalization, there has been an undeniable economic development and technological progress to support the level of health around the world, improving the health status of certain populations with a beneficial increase in life expectancy. In many aspects globalization is good but there are many problems too.

  8. Northern peatlands in global climatic change

    Laiho, R.; Laine, J.; Vasander, H. [eds.] [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Forest Ecology

    1996-12-31

    Northern peatlands are important in regulating the global climate. While sequestering carbon dioxide, these peatlands release ca. 24-39 Tg methane annually to the atmosphere. This is 5-20 % of the annual anthropogenic methane emissions to the atmosphere. The greenhouse gas balance of peatlands may change as a consequence of water level draw-down after land-use change, or if summers become warmer and drier, as has been predicted for high latitudes after climatic warming. Subsequent emissions of methane would decrease, whereas emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide would increase. Within the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU), the research project `Carbon Balance of Peatlands and Climate Change` (SUOSILMU) has been under progress since 1990. It is a co-operative research project, with research groups from the Universities of Helsinki and Joensuu, the Finnish Forest Research Institute, the National Public Health Institute and the Finnish Environment Agency. The research consortium of this project organised a workshop entitled `Northern Peatlands in Global Climatic Change - Hyytiaelae Revisited` October 8-12, 1995. The main objective of the workshop was to review the state of the art of the carbon cycling research in natural and managed peatlands. The role of peatlands in the greenhouse effect, their response and feedback to the predicted climate change, and the consequences of land-use changes were assessed, and the future research needs were evaluated. The latest information on the role of peatlands in the atmospheric change was given in 50 posters and 4 key lectures. Results of SUOSILMU projects were demonstrated during a 1-day field excursion to one of the intensive study sites, Lakkasuo near Hyytiaelae

  9. Toward 10-km mesh global climate simulations

    Ohfuchi, W.; Enomoto, T.; Takaya, K.; Yoshioka, M. K.

    2002-12-01

    An atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) that runs very efficiently on the Earth Simulator (ES) was developed. The ES is a gigantic vector-parallel computer with the peak performance of 40 Tflops. The AGCM, named AFES (AGCM for ES), was based on the version 5.4.02 of an AGCM developed jointly by the Center for Climate System Research, the University of Tokyo and the Japanese National Institute for Environmental Sciences. The AFES was, however, totally rewritten in FORTRAN90 and MPI while the original AGCM was written in FORTRAN77 and not capable of parallel computing. The AFES achieved 26 Tflops (about 65 % of the peak performance of the ES) at resolution of T1279L96 (10-km horizontal resolution and 500-m vertical resolution in middle troposphere to lower stratosphere). Some results of 10- to 20-day global simulations will be presented. At this moment, only short-term simulations are possible due to data storage limitation. As ten tera flops computing is achieved, peta byte data storage are necessary to conduct climate-type simulations at this super-high resolution global simulations. Some possibilities for future research topics in global super-high resolution climate simulations will be discussed. Some target topics are mesoscale structures and self-organization of the Baiu-Meiyu front over Japan, cyclogenecsis over the North Pacific and typhoons around the Japan area. Also improvement in local precipitation with increasing horizontal resolution will be demonstrated.

  10. Impact Assessment of Ecosystem Influenced by Changing Global Climate and its National Management Practices II - Focusing on me bioclimatic model development of the forest -

    Jeon, S.W.; Park, Y.H; Chung, W.C.; Hideo, H.; Kiyoshi, T. [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    2001-12-01

    In order to assess the influences from climate change, lots of studies have been conducted in Asia/Pacific region recently. The analyzed contents in these studies have a wide range of uncertainty even though the results were limited to the direct influences. While the geographical resolutions of various data used in the model are important factors, integration and expansion of the basic physical and biological reactions is another problem. The results from the previous researches suggest that there will be some problems, which are not to reflect the climate change correctly due to the regional small scale and various utilization of land, if data of the existing large-scale influence model is applied to Korea as it is. This study adopts data of 5 large-scale GCM (Global Circulation Model) in order to find the special climate change pattern and estimates the influences from climate change based on the pattern. In the interpretation of the results from this study, therefore, it is necessary to apply the method, which simultaneously analyzes averages and ranges of the estimated influences by 5 GCM, when forecasting influences by scenarios in 2003, the third year of this study. On considering this background, even though the averages and transition ranges of GCM data in this study provide many suggestions for estimating the influences ranges of forest, their application should be conducted after the serious examination because they do not perfectly reflect the regional microclimate. 108 refs., 56 figs., 24 tabs.

  11. Joint sciences academies statement: global response to climate change

    2005-06-01

    Taking into account that there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring, the Joint Science Academies, urge, by this statement, all nations in the line with the UNFCCC principles, to take prompt action to reduce the causes of climate change, adapt to its impacts and ensure that the issue is included in all relevant national and international strategies. Some recommendations are also given. (A.L.B.)

  12. An integrated framework to address climate change (ESCAPE) and further developments of the global and regional climate modules (MAGICC)

    Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.

    1995-01-01

    ESCAPE (the Evaluation of Strategies to address Climate change by Adapting to and Preventing Emissions) is an integrated climate change assessment model constructed between 1990 and 1992 for DG XI of the Commission of the European Community by a consortium of research institutes headed by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). It has been designed to enable the user to generate future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (through an energy-economic model), examine their impact on global climate and sea level (through two independent global climate models), and illustrate some of the consequences of this global climate change at a regional scale for the European Community (through a regional climate scenario generator and impact models). We provide a very brief overview of the ESCAPE model which, although innovative, suffers from a number of major limitations. Subsequent work in the CRU has concentrated on improvements to the global climate module and work has also commenced on an improved regional climate scenario generating module. These improvements will lead to a new integrated climate change assessment model, MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) which can easily be incorporated into new larger integrated frameworks developed by other institutes. (Author)

  13. At a global scale, do climate change threatened species also face a greater number of non-climatic threats?

    Lucas B. Fortini

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available For many species the threats of climate change occur in a context of multiple existing threats. Given the current focus of global change ecology in identifying and understanding species vulnerable to climate change, we performed a global analysis to characterize the multi-threat context for species threatened by climate change. Utilizing 30,053 species from the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, we sought to evaluate if species threatened by climate change are more likely threatened by a greater number of non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Our results show that species threatened by climate change are generally impacted by 21% more non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Across all species, this pattern is related to IUCN risk status, where endangered species threatened by climate change face 33% more non-climatic threats than endangered species not threatened by climate change. With the clear challenges of assessing current and projected impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, research often requires reductionist approaches that result in downplaying this multi-threat context. This cautionary note bears relevance beyond climate change threatened species as we also found other (but not all anthropogenic threats are also similarly associated with more threats. Our findings serve as a reminder that ecological research should seriously consider these potential threat interactions, especially for species under elevated conservation concern.

  14. At a global scale, do climate change threatened species also face a greater number of non-climatic threats?

    Fortini, Lucas B.; Dye, Kaipo

    2017-01-01

    For many species the threats of climate change occur in a context of multiple existing threats. Given the current focus of global change ecology in identifying and understanding species vulnerable to climate change, we performed a global analysis to characterize the multi-threat context for species threatened by climate change. Utilizing 30,053 species from the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species, we sought to evaluate if species threatened by climate change are more likely threatened by a greater number of non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Our results show that species threatened by climate change are generally impacted by 21% more non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Across all species, this pattern is related to IUCN risk status, where endangered species threatened by climate change face 33% more non-climatic threats than endangered species not threatened by climate change. With the clear challenges of assessing current and projected impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, research often requires reductionist approaches that result in downplaying this multi-threat context. This cautionary note bears relevance beyond climate change threatened species as we also

  15. Risk-analysis of global climate tipping points

    Frieler, Katja; Meinshausen, Malte; Braun, N [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research e.V., Potsdam (Germany). PRIMAP Research Group; and others

    2012-09-15

    There are many elements of the Earth system that are expected to change gradually with increasing global warming. Changes might prove to be reversible after global warming returns to lower levels. But there are others that have the potential of showing a threshold behavior. This means that these changes would imply a transition between qualitatively disparate states which can be triggered by only small shifts in background climate (2). These changes are often expected not to be reversible by returning to the current level of warming. The reason for that is, that many of them are characterized by self-amplifying processes that could lead to a new internally stable state which is qualitatively different from before. There are different elements of the climate system that are already identified as potential tipping elements. This group contains the mass losses of the Greenland and the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet, the decline of the Arctic summer sea ice, different monsoon systems, the degradation of coral reefs, the dieback of the Amazon rainforest, the thawing of the permafrost regions as well as the release of methane hydrates (3). Crucially, these tipping elements have regional to global scale effects on human society, biodiversity and/or ecosystem services. Several examples may have a discernable effect on global climate through a large-scale positive feedback. This means they would further amplify the human induced climate change. These tipping elements pose risks comparable to risks found in other fields of human activity: high-impact events that have at least a few percent chance to occur classify as high-risk events. In many of these examples adaptation options are limited and prevention of occurrence may be a more viable strategy. Therefore, a better understanding of the processes driving tipping points is essential. There might be other tipping elements even more critical but not yet identified. These may also lie within our socio-economic systems that are

  16. Projected climate change impacts in rainfall erosivity over Brazil

    Climate change projections and historical analyses have shown alterations in global precipitation dynamics, and therefore, it is also expected that there will be associated changes to soil erosion rates. The impacts of climate change on soil erosion may bring serious economic, social, and environmen...

  17. Appropriate modelling of climate change impacts on river flooding

    Booij, Martijn J.

    2002-01-01

    Global climate change is likely to increase temperatures, change precipitation patterns and probably raise the frequency of extreme events. Impacts of climate change on river flooding may be considerable and may cause enormous economical, social and environmental damage and even loss of lives. This

  18. Indexes of leading climate indicators for impact assessment

    Easterling, W.E.; Kates, R.W.

    1995-01-01

    Could users of climate information for impact assessment be overlooking an important source of information in climate indicators? We argue that indexes of leading climate indicators of impacts may be usable knowledge for consumers and may provide guidance to the global climate observing community concerning the types of data and information that users need. Five classes of indexes are suggested: Climate Extremes Index (CEI) and Greenhouse Climate Response Index (GCRI) - such are already available from scientists at the US National Climatic Data Center - plus proposed indexes of Hazard Warning, Ecosystem Health, and Energy Demand and Renewable Natural Resources. We conclude that the CEI and GCRI posses several necessary attributes to become usable knowledge; the other indexes have the potential to become usable knowledge, but remain to be implemented with climate data and fully evaluated. 34 refs

  19. Long-term climate monitoring by the global climate observing system

    Karl, T.R.

    1995-12-01

    Is the climate warming? Is the hydrologic cycle changing? Is the atmospheric/oceanic circulation changing? Is the climate becoming more variable or extreme? Is radiative forcing of the climate changing? are complex questions not only from the standpoint of a multi-variate problem, but because of the various aspects of spatial and temporal sampling that must be considered on a global scale. The development of a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) offers the opportunity for scientists to do something about existing observing deficiencies in light of the importance of documenting long-term climate changes that may already be affected by anthropogenic changes of atmospheric composition and land use as well as other naturally occurring changes. As an important step toward improving the present inadequacies, a workshop was held to help define the long-term monitoring requirements minimally needed to address the five questions posed above, with special emphasis on detecting anthropogenic climate change and its potential impact on managed and unmanaged systems The workshop focussed on three broad areas related to long-term climate monitoring: (a) the scientific rationale for the long-term climate products (including their accuracy, resolution, and homogeneity) required from our observing systems as related to climate monitoring and climate change detection and attribution; (b) the status of long-term climate products and the observing systems from which these data are derived; and (c) implementation strategies necessary to fulfill item (a) in light of existing systems. Item (c) was treated more in terms of feasibility rather than as a specific implementation plan. figs., tabs., refs

  20. Assessing the impacts induced by global climate change through a multi-risk approach: lessons learned from the North Adriatic coast (Italy)

    Gallina, Valentina; Torressan, Silvia; Zabeo, Alex; Critto, Andrea; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is expected to pose a wide range of impacts on natural and human systems worldwide, increasing risks from long-term climate trends and disasters triggered by weather extremes. Accordingly, in the future, one region could be potentially affected by interactions, synergies and trade-offs of multiple hazards and impacts. A multi-risk risk approach is needed to effectively address multiple threats posed by climate change across regions and targets supporting decision-makers toward a new paradigm of multi-hazard and risk management. Relevant initiatives have been already developed for the assessment of multiple hazards and risks affecting the same area in a defined timeframe by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Most of them are addressing the relations of different natural hazards, however, the effect of future climate change is usually not considered. In order to fill this gap, an advanced multi-risk methodology was developed at the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC) for estimating cumulative impacts related to climate change at the regional (i.e. sub-national) scale. This methodology was implemented into an assessment tool which allows to scan and classify quickly natural systems and human assets at risk resulting from different interacting hazards. A multi-hazard index is proposed to evaluate the relationships of different climate-related hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storm surge) occurring in the same spatial and temporal area, by means of an influence matrix and the disjoint probability function. Future hazard scenarios provided by regional climate models are used as input for this step in order to consider possible effects of future climate change scenarios. Then, the multi-vulnerability of different exposed receptors (e.g. natural systems, beaches, agricultural and urban areas) is estimated through a variety of vulnerability indicators (e.g. vegetation cover, sediment budget, % of urbanization

  1. Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

    Stephanie K. Moore; Vera L. Trainer; Nathan J. Mantua; Micaela S. Parker; Edward A. Laws; Lorraine C. Backer; Lora E. Fleming

    2008-01-01

    Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes...

  2. Impact of Climate Change on Drylands. Climate variability, livelihood strategies and policy options

    Verhagen, A. [Plant Research International, Wageningen (Netherlands); Dietz, A.J. [Amsterdam Research Institute for Global Issues and Development Studies AGIDS, University of Amsterdam UvA, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2001-09-01

    The findings of the Impact of Climate Change on Drylands (ICCD) project were discussed during a workshop held on 26 and 27 April 2001. The aims of the workshop were to disseminate the findings of the ICCD project, create awareness of the possible effects of climate change and contribute to the dialogue on climate change research in West Africa. Both the workshop and the project were financed by the National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP), Centre Technique de Cooperation de Agricole et Rurale (CTA), Wageningen University (INREF), and Amsterdam Research Institute for Global Issues and Development Studies (AGIDS)

  3. Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

    Planton, S.; Deque, M.; Chauvin, F.; Terray, L.

    2008-01-01

    An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

  4. Global environmental impacts of the hydrogen economy

    Derwent, R.; Simmonds, P.; O'Doherty, S.; Manning, A.; Collins, W.; Stevenson, D.

    2006-01-01

    Hydrogen-based energy systems appear to be an attractive proposition in providing a future replacement for the current fossil-fuel based energy systems. Hydrogen is an important, though little studied, trace component of the atmosphere. It is present at the mixing ratio of about 510 ppb currently and has important man-made and natural sources. Because hydrogen reacts with tropospheric hydroxyl radicals, emissions of hydrogen to the atmosphere perturb the distributions of methane and ozone, the second and third most important greenhouse gases after carbon dioxide. Hydrogen is therefore an indirect greenhouse gas with a global warming potential GWP of 5.8 over a 100-year time horizon. A future hydrogen economy would therefore have greenhouse consequences and would not be free from climate perturbations. If a global hydrogen economy replaced the current fossil fuel-based energy system and exhibited a leakage rate of 1%, then it would produce a climate impact of 0.6% of the current fossil fuel based system. Careful attention must be given to reduce to a minimum the leakage of hydrogen from the synthesis, storage and use of hydrogen in a future global hydrogen economy if the full climate benefits are to be realised. (author)

  5. Online Impact Prioritization of Essential Climate Variables on Climate Change

    Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Barkstrom, B. B.; Roberts, K. P.

    2007-12-01

    The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s NCDC Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Team has developed an online prototype that is capable of displaying the "big picture" perspective of all Essential Climate Variable (ECV) impacts on society and value to the IPCC. This prototype ECV-Model provides the ability to visualize global ECV information with options to drill down in great detail. It offers a quantifiable prioritization of ECV impacts that potentially may significantly enhance collaboration with respect to dealing effectively with climate change. The ECV-Model prototype assures anonymity and provides an online input mechanism for subject matter experts and decision makers to access, review and submit: (1) ranking of ECV"s, (2) new ECV's and associated impact categories and (3) feedback about ECV"s, satellites, etc. Input and feedback are vetted by experts before changes or additions are implemented online. The SDS prototype also provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of satellites; and general as well as detailed information in conjunction with imagery. NCDC's version 1.0 release will be available to the public and provide an easy "at-a-glance" interface to rapidly identify gaps and overlaps of satellites and associated instruments monitoring climate change ECV's. The SDS version 1.1 will enhance depiction of gaps and overlaps with instruments associated with In-Situ and Satellites related to ECVs. NOAA's SDS model empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in monitoring climate change ECV's and potentially significantly enhance collaboration.

  6. What's in a name? Commonalities and differences in public understanding of "climate change" and "global warming"

    Whitmarsh, Lorraine E.

    2009-01-01

    This paper reports on findings from a survey of public understanding of climate change and global warming amongst residents in the south of England. Whereas much previous research has relied on survey checklists to measure public understanding of climate change, this study employed a more qualitative approach to reveal participants' unprompted conceptions of climate change and global warming. Overall, the findings show a tendency for the public to dissociate themselves from the causes, impact...

  7. Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions Modulate Irrigation's Climate Impacts

    Krakauer, Nir Y.; Puma, Michael J.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Gentine, Pierre; Nazarenko, Larissa

    2016-01-01

    Numerous studies have focused on the local and regional climate effects of irrigated agriculture and other land cover and land use change (LCLUC) phenomena, but there are few studies on the role of ocean- atmosphere interaction in modulating irrigation climate impacts. Here, we compare simulations with and without interactive sea surface temperatures of the equilibrium effect on climate of contemporary (year 2000) irrigation geographic extent and intensity. We find that ocean-atmosphere interaction does impact the magnitude of global-mean and spatially varying climate impacts, greatly increasing their global reach. Local climate effects in the irrigated regions remain broadly similar, while non-local effects, particularly over the oceans, tend to be larger. The interaction amplifies irrigation-driven standing wave patterns in the tropics and mid-latitudes in our simulations, approximately doubling the global-mean amplitude of surface temperature changes due to irrigation. The fractions of global area experiencing significant annual-mean surface air temperature and precipitation change also approximately double with ocean-atmosphere interaction. Subject to confirmation with other models, these findings imply that LCLUC is an important contributor to climate change even in remote areas such as the Southern Ocean, and that attribution studies should include interactive oceans and need to consider LCLUC, including irrigation, as a truly global forcing that affects climate and the water cycle over ocean as well as land areas.

  8. The climatic scenario of global warming

    Deque, M.

    2007-01-01

    This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

  9. Assessing the impact of climatic change in cold regions

    Parry, M L; Carter, T R [eds.

    1984-01-01

    The report describes the use of models to predict the consequences of global warming in particular (cold) regions. The workshop focused on two related issues: (a) the current sensitivity of ecosystems and farming systems to climatic variability, and (b) the range of impacts likely for certain changes of climate. This report addresses four broad themes: (1) the nature of the research problem; (2) methods of evaluating sensitivity to climatic variability; (3) methods of measuring the impact of climate change; and (4) how these methods might be refined. (ACR)

  10. Global modelling of river water quality under climate change

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Franssen, Wietse H. P.; Yearsley, John R.

    2017-04-01

    Climate change will pose challenges on the quality of freshwater resources for human use and ecosystems for instance by changing the dilution capacity and by affecting the rate of chemical processes in rivers. Here we assess the impacts of climate change and induced streamflow changes on a selection of water quality parameters for river basins globally. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a newly developed global water quality module for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand. The modelling framework was validated using observed records of streamflow, water temperature, chloride, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand for 1981-2010. VIC and the water quality module were then forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 to study water quality trends and identify critical regions (hotspots) of water quality deterioration for the 21st century.

  11. Global climate change and California's natural ecosystems

    Botkin, D.B.; Nisbet, R.A.; Woodhouse, C.; Ferren, W.; Bicknell, S.; Bentley, B.

    1991-01-01

    If projections of global climate models are correct, the natural ecosystems of California might undergo major changes during the next century. Such changes might include large economic losses in timber, fisheries, and recreation; major changes in our national and state parks and forests and in our nature preserves and conservation areas; increase in extinction of endangered species; loss of large areas of existing habitats; and development of new habitats whose location and areal extent can only be surmised. Many areas currently set aside for the conservation of specific ecosystems might no longer be suitable to them. Yet, in spite of the potential seriousness of these problems, which could dwarf all other environmental changes, California is at present in a poor situation to project what the effects of global change on its natural ecosystems might be

  12. Construction of climate change scenarios from transient climate change experiments for the IPCC impacts assessment

    Viner, D.; Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Jones, P.D.

    1994-01-01

    This paper outlines the different methods which may be used for the construction of regional climate change scenarios. The main focus of the paper is the construction of global climate change scenarios from climate change experiments carried out using General Circulation Models (GCMS) An introduction to some GCM climate change experiments highlights the difference between model types and experiments (e.g., equilibrium or transient). The latest generation of climate change experiments has been performed using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMS. These allow transient simulations of climate change to be performed with respect to a given greenhouse gas forcing scenario. There are, however, a number of problems with these simulations which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios for use in climate change impacts assessment. The characteristics of the transient climate change experiments which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios are discussed. Three examples of these problems are: different climate change experiments use different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios; the 'cold-start' problem makes it difficult to link future projections of climate change to a given calendar year; a drift of the climate is noticeable in the control simulations. In order to construct climate change scenarios for impacts assessment a method has therefore to be employed which addresses these problems. At present the climate modeling and climate change impacts communities are somewhat polarized in their approach to spatial scales. Current GCMs model the climate at resolutions larger than 2.5 x 3.75 degree, while the majority of impacts assessment studies are undertaken at scales below 50km (or 0.5 degree). This paper concludes by addressing the problems in bringing together these two different modeling perspectives by presenting a number of regional climate change scenarios. 35 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs

  13. Climate change damage functions in LCA – (1) from global warming potential to natural environment damages

    Callesen, Ingeborg; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Bagger Jørgensen, Rikke

    Energy use often is the most significant contributor to the impact category ‘global warming’ in life cycle impact assessment. However, the potential global warming effects on the climate at regional level and consequential effects on the natural environment are not thoroughly described within LCA...... methodology. The current scientific understanding of the extent of climate change impacts is limited due to the immense complexity of the multi-factorial environmental changes and unknown adaptive capacities at process, species and ecosystem level. In the presentation we argue that the global warming impacts...

  14. Characterization of the Dynamics of Climate Systems and Identification of Missing Mechanisms Impacting the Long Term Predictive Capabilities of Global Climate Models Utilizing Dynamical Systems Approaches to the Analysis of Observed and Modeled Climate

    Bhatt, Uma S. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Wackerbauer, Renate [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Physics; Polyakov, Igor V. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Newman, David E. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Physics; Sanchez, Raul E. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Fusion Energy Division; Univ. Carlos III de Madrid (Spain)

    2015-11-13

    The goal of this research was to apply fractional and non-linear analysis techniques in order to develop a more complete characterization of climate change and variability for the oceanic, sea ice and atmospheric components of the Earth System. This research applied two measures of dynamical characteristics of time series, the R/S method of calculating the Hurst exponent and Renyi entropy, to observational and modeled climate data in order to evaluate how well climate models capture the long-term dynamics evident in observations. Fractional diffusion analysis was applied to ARGO ocean buoy data to quantify ocean transport. Self organized maps were applied to North Pacific sea level pressure and analyzed in ways to improve seasonal predictability for Alaska fire weather. This body of research shows that these methods can be used to evaluate climate models and shed light on climate mechanisms (i.e., understanding why something happens). With further research, these methods show promise for improving seasonal to longer time scale forecasts of climate.

  15. A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations

    Frey-Buness, A.; Heimann, D.; Sausen, R.; Schumann, U.

    1994-01-01

    A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations is described. The procedure is based on the assumption that any regional climate is associated with a specific frequency distribution of classified large-scale weather situations. The frequency distributions are derived from multi-year episodes of low resolution global climate simulations. Highly resolved regional distributions of wind and temperature are calculated with a regional model for each class of large-scale weather situation. They are statistically evaluated by weighting them with the according climate-specific frequency. The procedure is exemplarily applied to the Alpine region for a global climate simulation of the present climate. (orig.)

  16. The impact of climate change on the European energy system

    Dowling, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Climate change can affect the economy via many different channels in many different sectors. The POLES global energy model has been modified to widen the coverage of climate change impacts on the European energy system. The impacts considered are changes in heating and cooling demand in the residential and services sector, changes in the efficiency of thermal power plants, and changes in hydro, wind (both on- and off-shore) and solar PV electricity output. Results of the impacts of six scenarios on the European energy system are presented, and the implications for European energy security and energy imports are presented. Main findings include: demand side impacts (heating and cooling in the residential and services sector) are larger than supply side impacts; power generation from fossil-fuel and nuclear sources decreases and renewable energy increases; and impacts are larger in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe. There remain many more climate change impacts on the energy sector that cannot currently be captured due to a variety of issues including: lack of climate data, difficulties translating climate data into energy-system-relevant data, lack of detail in energy system models where climate impacts act. This paper does not attempt to provide an exhaustive analysis of climate change impacts in the energy sector, it is rather another step towards an increasing coverage of possible impacts. - Highlights: • Expanded coverage of climate change impacts on European energy system. • Demand side impacts are larger than supply side impacts. • Power from fossil and nuclear sources decreases, renewable energy increases. • Impacts are larger in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe. • Synergies exist between climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation

  17. What's happening out there? (Climatic change impacts)

    Visconti, G.

    1990-01-01

    This article briefly comments on some stumbling-blocks to climatic change modelling accuracy - in assessments of the greenhouse effect, 25% (missing link) of atmospheric carbon dioxide absorption is still unaccounted for; 1989 World Bank estimates of the Amazon rain forest deforestation rate have since proven to be inaccurate; there are difficulties in assessing the movement of the earth's crust relative to variations in sea level; and different studies vary in results relative to global temperature measurement and trend assessment. The need for an assessment of the economic impacts of increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide is also pointed out

  18. Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

    Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

    2003-04-01

    More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

  19. Likely impact of global warming on developing countries

    Topping, J.

    1992-01-01

    Over the last couple of years there has been mounting evidence that the human costs of rapid global warming are likely to be concentrated especially in developing countries and that some countries may be gravely affected. Climate impacts research has until recently been focused principally on a handful of more affluent countries, but studies of climate impacts on developing countries are now under way and preliminary results are likely to be available for many areas of the world within the next year

  20. Global climate change: A U.S. business community's perspective

    Shales, J.

    1994-01-01

    Scientists from all over the world are currently attempting to evaluate the impact of both manmade and natural phenomena on climate change, including such issues as the role of oceans as sinks in absorbing CO 2 , the role of sunspots, the absorptive capacity of different tree species, the impact of nitrous oxide and non- CO 2 greenhouse gases, the length of time carbon remains in the atmosphere, the impact of ocean currents and innumerable other issues. Understanding these phenomena, and their interaction will be critical to properly addressing the issue which has tremendous importance for both the US and the world economic future development. The climate change issue has the potential to become the vehicle which will link developing countries to the rest of the world, since, embodies in the global climate debate are several of the social issues that the U.N. has attempted to address over the last two decades: hunger, overpopulation, environment, technology, and development. The climate change issue has the potential to test new international institutions, relationships between developed and developing counties and between traditional trading partners

  1. Burden Sharing with Climate Change Impacts

    Tavoni, M.; van Vuuren, D.; De Cian, E.; Marangoni, G.; Hof, A.

    2014-12-01

    Efficiency and equity have been at the center of the climate change policy making since the very first international environmental agreements on climate change, though over time how to implement these principles has taken different forms. Studies based on Integrated Assessment Models have also shown that the economic effort of achieving a 2 degree target in a cost-effective way would differ widely across regions (Tavoni et al. 2013) because of diverse economic and energy structure, baseline emissions, energy and carbon intensity. Policy instruments, such as a fully-fledged, global emission trading schemes can be used to pursuing efficiency and equity at the same time but the literature has analyzed the compensations required to redistribute only mitigation costs. However, most of these studies have neglected the potential impacts of climate change. In this paper we use two integrated assessment models -FAIR and WITCH- to explore the 2°C policy space when accounting for climate change impacts. Impacts are represented via two different reduced forms equations, which despite their simplicity allows us exploring the key sensitivities- Our results show that in a 2 degree stabilization scenarios residual damages remain significant (see Figure 1) and that if you would like to compensate those as part of an equal effort scheme - this would lead to a different allocation than focusing on a mitigation based perspective only. The residual damages and adaptation costs are not equally distributed - and while we do not cover the full uncertainty space - with 2 different models and 2 sets of damage curves we are still able to show quite similar results in terms of vulnerable regions and the relative position of the different scenarios. Therefore, accounting for the residual damages and the associated adaptation costs on top of the mitigation burden increases and redistributes the full burden of total climate change.

  2. The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture

    Morton, John F.

    2007-01-01

    Some of the most important impacts of global climate change will be felt among the populations, predominantly in developing countries, referred to as “subsistence” or “smallholder” farmers. Their vulnerability to climate change comes both from being predominantly located in the tropics, and from various socioeconomic, demographic, and policy trends limiting their capacity to adapt to change. However, these impacts will be difficult to model or predict because of (i) the lack of standardised d...

  3. White House Conference on Global Climate Change

    1993-11-01

    President Clinton has directed the White House office on Environmental Policy to coordinate an interagency process to develop a plan to fulfill the commitment he made in his Earth Day address on April 21, 1993. This plan will become the cornerstone of the Climate Change Plan that will be completed shortly after the Rio Accord enters into force. The Office on Environmental Policy established the Interagency Climate Change Mitigation Group to draw on the expertise of federal agencies including the National Economic Council; the Council of Economic Advisors; the Office of Science and Technology Policy; the Office of Management and Budget; the National Security Council; the Domestic Policy Council; the Environmental Protection Agency; and the Departments of Energy, Transportation, Agriculture, Interior, Treasury, Commerce, and State. Working groups have been established to examine six key policy areas: energy demand, energy supply, joint implementation, methane and other gases, sinks, and transportation. The purpose of the White House Conference on Global Climate Change was to ``tap the real-world experiences`` of diverse participants and seek ideas and information for meeting the President`s goals. During the opening session, senior administration officials defined the challenge ahead and encouraged open and frank conversation about the best possible ways to meet it.

  4. Focus: Assessing the regional impacts of global warming

    Woo, Mingko

    1992-01-01

    Five studies are presented which assess the impacts of global warming on physical, economic, and social systems in Canada. A study on the use of climatic change scenarios to estimate ecoclimatic impacts was carried out. These scenarios may include synthetic scenarios produced from historical data, global climate model (GCM) simulations, and hybrid scenarios. The advantages and drawbacks of various scenarios are discussed along with the criteria for selecting impact assessment models. An examination of water resources in the Great Lakes and the Saskatchewan River subbasin uses case studies of two areas that have experienced wide hydrological variations due to climatic variability in order to determine the impacts of global warming scenarios on net basin supply. Problems of developing regional models are discussed and results of projected changes in net basin supply are presented for GCM-based simulations and hypothetical warming scenarios. A study of the impacts of climate warming on transportation and the regional economy in northern Canada uses stochastic models to provide examples of how Mackenzie River barge traffic will be affected. The economic impacts of the resultant lengthened shipping season are outlined under three scenarios. The implications of climatic change on Ontario agriculture are assessed according to GCM scenarios. Results are presented for crop yields and production as well as land resource suitability. Finally, sociocultural implications of global warming on the Arctic and the Inuit are summarized, with reference to a past warming episode occurring around the year 1000. 45 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs

  5. Climate change and livestock: Impacts, adaptation, and mitigation

    M. Melissa Rojas-Downing

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Global demand for livestock products is expected to double by 2050, mainly due to improvement in the worldwide standard of living. Meanwhile, climate change is a threat to livestock production because of the impact on quality of feed crop and forage, water availability, animal and milk production, livestock diseases, animal reproduction, and biodiversity. This study reviews the global impacts of climate change on livestock production, the contribution of livestock production to climate change, and specific climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in the livestock sector. Livestock production will be limited by climate variability as animal water consumption is expected to increase by a factor of three, demand for agricultural lands increase due to need for 70% growth in production, and food security concern since about one-third of the global cereal harvest is used for livestock feed. Meanwhile, the livestock sector contributes 14.5% of global greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, driving further climate change. Consequently, the livestock sector will be a key player in the mitigation of GHG emissions and improving global food security. Therefore, in the transition to sustainable livestock production, there is a need for: a assessments related to the use of adaptation and mitigation measures tailored to the location and livestock production system in use, and b policies that support and facilitate the implementation of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures.

  6. The regionalization of climate scenarios: towards impact studies

    Cariolle, D.

    1999-01-01

    This article describes the different types of climate numerical models and their use to obtain scenarios for climate change due to the greenhouse gas increase. Results from global or meso-scale models are given. They illustrate the existing ways of representing climatic conditions at global and regional scales. Combined with statistical approaches based for example on the techniques of analogues, their use gives a coherent strategy going from global scale numerical simulations to the study of impacts at a local scale. In the future the increase of computer power should allow a better description of the small processes and a wider range of impact studies on natural ecosystems and various economic sectors. The results of these studies will be very useful to define a coherent policy in response to observed or predicted climate changes. (author)

  7. The Software Architecture of Global Climate Models

    Alexander, K. A.; Easterbrook, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    It has become common to compare and contrast the output of multiple global climate models (GCMs), such as in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). However, intercomparisons of the software architecture of GCMs are almost nonexistent. In this qualitative study of seven GCMs from Canada, the United States, and Europe, we attempt to fill this gap in research. We describe the various representations of the climate system as computer programs, and account for architectural differences between models. Most GCMs now practice component-based software engineering, where Earth system components (such as the atmosphere or land surface) are present as highly encapsulated sub-models. This architecture facilitates a mix-and-match approach to climate modelling that allows for convenient sharing of model components between institutions, but it also leads to difficulty when choosing where to draw the lines between systems that are not encapsulated in the real world, such as sea ice. We also examine different styles of couplers in GCMs, which manage interaction and data flow between components. Finally, we pay particular attention to the varying levels of complexity in GCMs, both between and within models. Many GCMs have some components that are significantly more complex than others, a phenomenon which can be explained by the respective institution's research goals as well as the origin of the model components. In conclusion, although some features of software architecture have been adopted by every GCM we examined, other features show a wide range of different design choices and strategies. These architectural differences may provide new insights into variability and spread between models.

  8. The Role of Volcanic Activity in Climate and Global Change

    Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2015-01-01

    . The recent interest in dynamic, microphysical, chemical, and climate impacts of volcanic eruptions is also excited by the fact that these impacts provide a natural analogue for climate geoengineering schemes involving deliberate development of an artificial

  9. Air Pollution Impacts on Global Crop Productivity and Nitrogen Depositio

    Heald, C. L.; Tai, A. P. K.; Val Martin, M.

    2014-12-01

    The biosphere is undeniably transformed by air pollution. Emissions, climate change, and land use change are all expected to substantially alter future air quality. In this presentation, we discuss near-term projections (2050) of air quality impacts on both crop productivity and nitrogen deposition. First, we contrast the relative impacts of ozone air pollution and a warming climate on global crop yields. To do so, we define statistical crop yield functions to a warming climate based on the historical record. We combine these relationships with ozone-damage estimates and apply these to future air quality and climate projections from a global coupled chemistry-climate model (CESM). We find substantial variability in the response, with certain regions or crops more sensitive to ozone pollution and others more sensitive to warming. This work demonstrates that air quality management is a key element to ensuring global food security. Second, we examine the relative impacts of anthropogenic emissions, climate change, and land use change on global nitrogen deposition. Nitrogen deposition has rapidly increased over the Anthropocene. Excess deposition of nitrogen to ecosystems can lead to eutrophication of waters, and a decrease in biodiversity. We use the CESM to investigate two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5) and focus our analysis on the impacts on diverse ecoregions in North America, Europe, and Asia.

  10. How Will Climate Change Impact Cholera Outbreaks?

    Nasr Azadani, F.; Jutla, A.; Rahimikolu, J.; Akanda, A. S.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2014-12-01

    Environmental parameters associated with cholera are well documented. However, cholera continues to be a global public health threat. Uncertainty in defining environmental processes affecting growth and multiplication of the cholera bacteria can be affected significantly by changing climate at different temporal and spatial scales, either through amplification of the hydroclimatic cycle or by enhanced variability of large scale geophysical processes. Endemic cholera in the Bengal Delta region of South Asia has a unique pattern of two seasonal peaks and there are associated with asymmetric and episodic variability in river discharge. The first cholera outbreak in spring is related with intrusion of bacteria laden coastal seawater during low river discharge. Cholera occurring during the fall season is hypothesized to be associated with high river discharge related to a cross-contamination of water resources and, therefore, a second wave of disease, a phenomenon characteristic primarily in the inland regions. Because of difficulties in establishing linkage between coarse resolutions of the Global Climate Model (GCM) output and localized disease outbreaks, the impact of climate change on diarrheal disease has not been explored. Here using the downscaling method of Support Vector Machines from HADCM3 and ECHAM models, we show how cholera outbreak patterns are changing in the Bengal Delta. Our preliminary results indicate statistically significant changes in both seasonality and magnitude in the occurrence of cholera over the next century. Endemic cholera is likely to transform into epidemic forms and new geographical areas will be at risk for cholera outbreaks.

  11. Climate Trends and Impacts in China

    Chris Sall

    2013-01-01

    This discussion paper summarizes observed and projected trends in extreme weather events, present-day climate variability, and future climate change and their impacts on China's different regions. Findings are presented from China's national assessment report on climate change (2007) and second national assessment report on climate change (2011) as well as other studies by Chinese and inte...

  12. Joint science academies' statement:Global response to climate change

    2005-01-01

    @@ Climate change is real There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world's climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring1.

  13. Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity

    García Molinos, Jorge; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Schoeman, David S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Kiessling, Wolfgang; Moore, Pippa J.; Pandolfi, John M.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Richardson, Anthony J.; Burrows, Michael T.

    2016-01-01

    Anticipating the effect of climate change on biodiversity, in particular on changes in community composition, is crucial for adaptive ecosystem management but remains a critical knowledge gap. Here, we use climate velocity trajectories, together with information on thermal tolerances and habitat preferences, to project changes in global patterns of marine species richness and community composition under IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Our simple, intuitive approach emphasizes climate connectivity, and enables us to model over 12 times as many species as previous studies. We find that range expansions prevail over contractions for both RCPs up to 2100, producing a net local increase in richness globally, and temporal changes in composition, driven by the redistribution rather than the loss of diversity. Conversely, widespread invasions homogenize present-day communities across multiple regions. High extirpation rates are expected regionally (for example, Indo-Pacific), particularly under RCP8.5, leading to strong decreases in richness and the anticipated formation of no-analogue communities where invasions are common. The spatial congruence of these patterns with contemporary human impacts highlights potential areas of future conservation concern. These results strongly suggest that the millennial stability of current global marine diversity patterns, against which conservation plans are assessed, will change rapidly over the course of the century in response to ocean warming.

  14. A New High Resolution Climate Dataset for Climate Change Impacts Assessments in New England

    Komurcu, M.; Huber, M.

    2016-12-01

    Assessing regional impacts of climate change (such as changes in extreme events, land surface hydrology, water resources, energy, ecosystems and economy) requires much higher resolution climate variables than those available from global model projections. While it is possible to run global models in higher resolution, the high computational cost associated with these simulations prevent their use in such manner. To alleviate this problem, dynamical downscaling offers a method to deliver higher resolution climate variables. As part of an NSF EPSCoR funded interdisciplinary effort to assess climate change impacts on New Hampshire ecosystems, hydrology and economy (the New Hampshire Ecosystems and Society project), we create a unique high-resolution climate dataset for New England. We dynamically downscale global model projections under a high impact emissions scenario using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with three nested grids of 27, 9 and 3 km horizontal resolution with the highest resolution innermost grid focusing over New England. We prefer dynamical downscaling over other methods such as statistical downscaling because it employs physical equations to progressively simulate climate variables as atmospheric processes interact with surface processes, emissions, radiation, clouds, precipitation and other model components, hence eliminates fix relationships between variables. In addition to simulating mean changes in regional climate, dynamical downscaling also allows for the simulation of climate extremes that significantly alter climate change impacts. We simulate three time slices: 2006-2015, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100. This new high-resolution climate dataset (with more than 200 variables saved in hourly (six hourly) intervals for the highest resolution domain (outer two domains)) along with model input and restart files used in our WRF simulations will be publicly available for use to the broader scientific community to support in-depth climate

  15. Dangerous Climate Velocities from Geoengineering Termination: Potential Biodiversity Impacts

    Trisos, C.; Gurevitch, J.; Zambri, B.; Xia, L.; Amatulli, G.; Robock, A.

    2016-12-01

    Geoengineering has been suggested as a potential societal response to the impacts of ongoing global warming. If ongoing mitigation and adaptation measures do not prevent the most dangerous consequences of climate change, it is important to study whether solar radiation management would make the world less dangerous. While impacts of albedo modification on temperature, precipitation, and agriculture have been studied before, here for the first time we investigate its potential ecological impacts. We estimate the speeds marine and terrestrial ecosystems will need to move to remain in their current climate conditions (i.e., climate velocities) in response to the implementation and subsequent termination of geoengineering. We take advantage of climate model simulations conducted using the G4 scenario of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which increased radiative forcing from the RCP4.5 scenario is balanced by a stratospheric aerosol cloud produced by an injection of 5 Tg of SO2 per year into the lower stratosphere for 50 years, and then stopped. The termination of geoengineering is projected to produce a very rapid warming of the climate, resulting in climate velocities much faster than those that will be produced from anthropogenic global warming. Should ongoing geoengineering be terminated abruptly due to society losing the means or will to continue, the resulting ecological impacts, as measured by climate velocities, could be severe for many terrestrial and marine biodiversity hotspots. Thus, the implementation of solar geoengineering represents a potential danger not just to humans, but also to biodiversity globally.

  16. Climate change denial, freedom of speech and global justice

    Trygve Lavik

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper I claim that there are moral reasons for making climate denialism illegal . First I define climate denialism, and then I discuss its impact on society and its reception in the media.  I build my philosophical arguments mainly on John Stuart Mill and Thomas M. Scanlon.  According to Mill’s utilitarian justification of free speech, even untrue opinions are valuable in society’s pursuit of more truth. Consequently one might think that Mill’s philosophy would justify climate denialists’ right to free speech.  A major section of the paper argues against that view. The main arguments are: Climate denialism is not beneficial because its main goal is to produce doubt, and not truth. Climate denialism is not sincerely meant, which is a necessary condition for Mill to accept utterances. Climate denialists bring harm, by blocking necessary action on climate change.  Primarily they harm future generations and people in developing countries. Hence the case can be made in terms of global justice: Would future generations and people in developing countries support my claim? I think so, or so I argue. My argument from global justice is built on Scanlon’s distinction between the interests of participants, the interests of audiences, and the interests of bystanders.  The climate denialists have participant interests ‘in being able to call something to the attention of a wide audience’. Audience interests consist in ‘having access to expressions that we wish to hear or read, and even in being exposed to some degree to expressions we have not chosen’. Future generations and people in poor countries are bystanders to the climate debate. If the debate postpones necessary actions, it is the bystanders who must pay the price. I argue that bystanders’ costs outweigh participants’ and audiences’ interests, and that this is an argument for a statutory ban on climate denialism.Article first published online: 21 DEC 2015 

  17. Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS): status of implementation

    Lucio, Filipe

    2015-04-01

    The World Climate Conference-3 (Geneva 2009) unanimously decided to establish the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), a UN-led initiative spearheaded by WMO to guide the development and application of science-based climate information and services in support of decision-making in climate sensitive sectors. By promoting science-based decision-making, the GFCS is empowering governments, communities and companies to build climate resilience, reduce vulnerabilities and adapt to impacts. The initial priority areas of GFCS are Agriculture and Food Security; Disaster Risk Reduction; Health; and Water Resources. The implementation of GFCS is well underway with a governance structure now fully established. The governance structure of GFCS includes the Partner Advisory Committee (PAC), which is GFCS's stakeholder engagement mechanism. The membership of the PAC allows for a broad participation of stakeholders. The European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), the European Commission (EC), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO), the Global Water Partnership (GWP), the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR), the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), the World Food Programme (WFP) and WMO have already joined the PAC. Activities are being implemented in various countries in Africa, the Caribbean, Asia and Pacific Small Islands Developing States through flagship projects and activities in the four priority areas of GFCS to enable the development of a Proof of Concept. The focus at national level is on strengthening institutional capacities needed for development of capacities for co-design and co-production of climate services and their application in support of decision-making in climate sensitive

  18. How weather impacts the forced climate response

    Kirtman, Ben P. [University of Miami, Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Rosenstiel School for Atmospheric and Marine Science, Miami, FL (United States); Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Schneider, Edwin K.; Straus, David M. [George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA (United States); Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Min, Dughong; Burgman, Robert [University of Miami, Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Rosenstiel School for Atmospheric and Marine Science, Miami, FL (United States)

    2011-12-15

    The new interactive ensemble modeling strategy is used to diagnose how noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics impacts the forced climate response during the twentieth century (i.e., 1870-1999). The interactive ensemble uses multiple realizations of the atmospheric component model coupled to a single realization of the land, ocean and ice component models in order to reduce the noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics in the flux exchange at the interface of the component models. A control ensemble of so-called climate of the twentieth century simulations of the Community Climate Simulation Model version 3 (CCSM3) are compared with a similar simulation with the interactive ensemble version of CCSM3. Despite substantial differences in the overall mean climate, the global mean trends in surface temperature, 500 mb geopotential and precipitation are largely indistinguishable between the control ensemble and the interactive ensemble. Large differences in the forced response; however, are detected particularly in the surface temperature of the North Atlantic. Associated with the forced North Atlantic surface temperature differences are local differences in the forced precipitation and a substantial remote rainfall response in the deep tropical Pacific. We also introduce a simple variance analysis to separately compare the variance due to noise and the forced response. We find that the noise variance is decreased when external forcing is included. In terms of the forced variance, we find that the interactive ensemble increases this variance relative to the control. (orig.)

  19. Preparing for climate change impacts in Norway's built environment

    Robert Lisoe, K.; Aandahl, G.; Eriksen, S.; Alfsen, K.

    2003-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the Norwegian climate policy and of the practical implications of preparing Norway for climate change, with special emphasis on the challenges confronting the built environment. Although the Norwegian government has been relatively proactive in instituting measures aimed at halting global climate change, less attention has been paid to the challenge of adapting to climate change. The global climate system is likely to undergo changes, regardless of the implementation of abatement policies under the Kyoto Protocol or other regimes. The full range of impacts resulting from these changes is still uncertain; however, it is becoming increasingly clear that adaptation to climate change is necessary and inevitable within several sectors. The potential impacts of climate change in the built environment are now being addressed. Both the functionality of the existing built environment and the design of future buildings are likely to be altered by climate change impacts, and the expected implications of these new conditions are now investigated. However, measures aimed at adjustments within individual sectors, such as altering the criteria and codes of practice for the design and construction of buildings, constitute only a partial adaptation to climate change. In order to adapt effectively, larger societal and intersectoral adjustments are necessary. (author)

  20. Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Shipping

    Eyring, Veronika; Isaksen, Ivar S. A.; Berntsen, Terje; Collins, William J.; Corbett, James J.; Endresen, Oyvind; Grainger, Roy G.; Moldanova, Jana; Schlager, Hans; Stevenson, David S.

    2010-12-01

    Emissions of exhaust gases and particles from oceangoing ships are a significant and growing contributor to the total emissions from the transportation sector. We present an assessment of the contribution of gaseous and particulate emissions from oceangoing shipping to anthropogenic emissions and air quality. We also assess the degradation in human health and climate change created by these emissions. Regulating ship emissions requires comprehensive knowledge of current fuel consumption and emissions, understanding of their impact on atmospheric composition and climate, and projections of potential future evolutions and mitigation options. Nearly 70% of ship emissions occur within 400 km of coastlines, causing air quality problems through the formation of ground-level ozone, sulphur emissions and particulate matter in coastal areas and harbours with heavy traffic. Furthermore, ozone and aerosol precursor emissions as well as their derivative species from ships may be transported in the atmosphere over several hundreds of kilometres, and thus contribute to air quality problems further inland, even though they are emitted at sea. In addition, ship emissions impact climate. Recent studies indicate that the cooling due to altered clouds far outweighs the warming effects from greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO 2) or ozone from shipping, overall causing a negative present-day radiative forcing (RF). Current efforts to reduce sulphur and other pollutants from shipping may modify this. However, given the short residence time of sulphate compared to CO 2, the climate response from sulphate is of the order decades while that of CO 2 is centuries. The climatic trade-off between positive and negative radiative forcing is still a topic of scientific research, but from what is currently known, a simple cancellation of global mean forcing components is potentially inappropriate and a more comprehensive assessment metric is required. The CO 2 equivalent emissions using

  1. Integrating global energy and climate governance: The changing role of the International Energy Agency

    Heubaum, Harald; Biermann, Frank

    2015-01-01

    Despite the long-recognized interlinkages between global energy consumption and climate change, there has historically been only limited policy interaction, let alone integration, between the two fields. This compartmentalization is mirrored in scholarship, where much research has focused on the fragmentation of, respectively, global energy and global climate governance, but only little has been said about how these fields might be integrated. Our analysis of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) changing activities in recent years shows that governance integration – both within global energy governance and between global energy and climate governance – is now happening. The IEA has broadened its portfolio to embrace the full spectrum of energy issues, including renewable energy and climate change; it has built and is expanding key partnerships with both the UN climate convention and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA); and it has become an authoritative advocate for the inter-related goals of a low-carbon transition and climate change mitigation. We show that these developments are not the result of a top-down plan, but have rather emerged through the Agency’s various efforts to pursue its energy-centric mandate in a fast-changing global policy environment. - Highlights: • Assesses integration between global energy and global climate governance. • Analyzes organizational change in the IEA and its impact on governance integration. • Discusses recent activities and advocacy by the IEA in relation to climate change.

  2. Climatic impact of volcanic eruptions

    Rampino, Michael R.

    1991-01-01

    Studies have attempted to 'isolate' the volcanic signal in noisy temperature data. This assumes that it is possible to isolate a distinct volcanic signal in a record that may have a combination of forcings (ENSO, solar variability, random fluctuations, volcanism) that all interact. The key to discovering the greatest effects of volcanoes on short-term climate may be to concentrate on temperatures in regions where the effects of aerosol clouds may be amplified by perturbed atmospheric circulation patterns. This is especially true in subpolar and midlatitude areas affected by changes in the position of the polar front. Such climatic perturbation can be detected in proxy evidence such as decrease in tree-ring widths and frost rings, changes in the treeline, weather anomalies, severity of sea-ice in polar and subpolar regions, and poor grain yields and crop failures. In low latitudes, sudden temperature drops were correlated with the passage overhead of the volcanic dust cloud (Stothers, 1984). For some eruptions, such as Tambora, 1815, these kinds of proxy and anectdotal information were summarized in great detail in a number of papers and books (e.g., Post, 1978; Stothers, 1984; Stommel and Stommel, 1986; C. R. Harrington, in press). These studies lead to the general conclusion that regional effects on climate, sometimes quite severe, may be the major impact of large historical volcanic aerosol clouds.

  3. Climate changes instead of global warming

    Radovanović Milan M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Air temperature changes on Earth in recent years are the subject of numerous and increasingly interdisciplinary research. In contrast to, conditionally speaking, generally accepted views that these changes are conditioned primarily by anthropogenic activity, more results appear to suggest that it is dominant natural processes about. Whether because of the proven existence of areas in which downtrends are registered or the stagnation of air temperature, as opposed to areas where the increase is determined, in scientific papers, as well as the media, the increasingly present is the use of the term climate changes instead of the global warming. In this paper, we shall try to present arguments for the debate relating to the official view of the IPCC, as well as research indicating the opposite view.

  4. Global precipitations and climate change. Proceedings

    Desbois, M.; Desalmand, F.

    1994-01-01

    The workshop reviewed the present status of knowledge concerning the past and present evolution of the distribution of precipitations at global scale, related to climate evolution at different time scales. This review was intended to assess the availability and quality of data which could help, through validation and initialization of model studies, to improve our understanding of the processes determining these precipitation changes. On another hand, the modelling specialists presented their actual use of precipitation data. Exchanges of views between the modelling and observing communities were thus made possible, leading to a set of recommendations for future studies. Sessions were then devoted to specific themes: 1) Paleoclimatology, 2) data collection, history and statistics, programmes, 3) methodologies and accuracy of large scale estimation of precipitation from conventional data, 4) estimation of precipitation from satellite data, 5) modelling studies. (orig.)

  5. National action to mitigate global climate change

    1995-06-01

    Over 170 participants from 60 countries met for three days in Copenhagen from 7 to 9 June 1994 to discuss howe the aims of the United Nations Framework convention on Climate Change can be translated into practical action. The Conference was organised by the UNEP collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE), with financial support from the Danish International Development Agency (Danida), the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and Risoe National Laboratory, Denmark. The main objective of the conference was to identify common approaches to national mitigation analysis for countries to use in meeting their commitments under the FCCC, and in setting priorities for national actions. Although addressing a broader theme, the conference marked the completion and publication of the second phase on UNEP Greenhouse Gas Abatement Costing Study. (au)

  6. Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

    Carter, P.

    2014-12-01

    This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline

  7. Global Climate Change and Ocean Education

    Spitzer, W.; Anderson, J.

    2011-12-01

    The New England Aquarium, collaborating with other aquariums across the country, is leading a national effort to enable aquariums and related informal science education institutions to effectively communicate the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on marine animals, habitats and ecosystems. Our goal is to build on visitors' emotional connection with ocean animals, connect to their deeply held values, help them understand causes and effects of climate change and motivate them to embrace effective solutions. Our objectives are to: (1) Build a national coalition of aquariums and related informal education institutions collaborating on climate change education; (2) Develop an interpretive framework for climate change and the ocean that is scientifically sound, research-based, field tested and evaluated; and (3) Build capacity of aquariums to interpret climate change via training for interpreters, interactive exhibits and activities and communities of practice for ongoing support. Centers of informal learning have the potential to bring important environmental issues to the public by presenting the facts, explaining the science, connecting with existing values and interests, and motivating concern and action. Centers that work with live animals (including aquariums, zoos, nature centers, national parks, national marine sanctuaries, etc.) are unique in that they attract large numbers of people of all ages (over 140 million in the US), have strong connections to the natural, and engage many visitors who may not come with a primary interest in science. Recent research indicates that that the public expects and trusts aquariums, zoos, and museums to communicate solutions to environmental and ocean issues, and to advance ocean conservation, and that climate change is the environmental issue of most concern to the public; Ironically, however, most people do not associate climate change with ocean health, or understand the critical role that the ocean plays in

  8. Strategic plant choices can alleviate climate change impacts: A review.

    Espeland, Erin K; Kettenring, Karin M

    2018-06-01

    Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) uses biodiversity and ecosystem services to reduce climate change impacts to local communities. Because plants can alleviate the abiotic and biotic stresses of climate change, purposeful plant choices could improve adaptation. However, there has been no systematic review of how plants can be applied to alleviate effects of climate change. Here we describe how plants can modify climate change effects by altering biological and physical processes. Plant effects range from increasing soil stabilization to reducing the impact of flooding and storm surges. Given the global scale of plant-related activities such as farming, landscaping, forestry, conservation, and restoration, plants can be selected strategically-i.e., planting and maintaining particular species with desired impacts-to simultaneously restore degraded ecosystems, conserve ecosystem function, and help alleviate effects of climate change. Plants are a tool for EbA that should be more broadly and strategically utilized. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  9. Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United ...

    Climate change threatens human health and well-being in the United States. To address this growing threat, the Interagency Group on Climate Change and Human Health (CCHHG), a working group of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP), has developed this assessment as part of the ongoing efforts of the USGCRP’s National Climate Assessment (NCA) and as called for under the President’s Climate Action Plan. The authors of this assessment have compiled and assessed current research on human health impacts of climate change and summarized the current “state of the science” for a number of key impact areas. This assessment provides a comprehensive update to the most recent detailed technical assessment for the health impacts of climate change, 2008 Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.6 (SAP 4.6) Analyses of the Effects of Global Change on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems (CCSP 2008). It also updates and builds upon the health chapter of the third NCA (Melillo et al. 2014). The lead and coordinating Federal agencies for the USGCRP Climate and Health Assessment are the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National Institute of Health (NIH), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Available at https://health2016.globalchange.gov/ The interagency U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) has developed this assessment as part of the ongoing efforts of their National C

  10. Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.

    Sofaer, Helen R; Barsugli, Joseph J; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Abatzoglou, John T; Talbert, Marian K; Miller, Brian W; Morisette, Jeffrey T

    2017-07-01

    Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Ethical choices and global climate warming

    Dotto, L

    1994-01-01

    The ethical implications of global warming are discussed, and a summary is presented of a study on ethics and climate change. Deciding the 'best' approaches depends on point of view, whether this be of a Canadian, a Somali, great grandchildren, the Amazon rain forest or a kangaroo. The spectrum of possible actions runs from avoidance to adaptation. Avoidance focuses on strategies to reduce the greenhouse effect by curtailing greenhouse gas emissions or preventing these emissions from reaching the atmosphere. Adaptation strategies help to cope with the negative consequences of allowing emissions to continue. Philosophers and ethicists have expressed a wide range of opinions on the consequences, responsibilities, limitations, and legal mechanisms involved in determining global warming action. A profound shift in corporate thinking is called for, with less emphasis on short-term bottom line. The role of governments and other institutions is debated, and questions are raised about the economic strategies that will best protect the interests of future generations. Energy efficiency and conservation must be reflected in the economic equation. Public cynicism with regard to political leaders is such that they are unlikely to credited with any degree of ethical motivation, a view that may be unwarranted. Ethical principles must become more central in the formulation of policies.

  12. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Hydro-Climate in Southern Peninsular Malaysia

    Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Impacts of climate change on the hydroclimate of the coastal region in the south of Peninsular Malaysia in the 21st century was assessed by means of a regional climate model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution Global Climate Models' future projections covering four emission scenarios based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) datasets were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. The analyses were made in terms of rainfall, air temperature, evapotranporation, and soil water storage.

  13. Homogeneity of a Global Multisatellite Soil Moisture Climate Data Record

    Su, Chun-Hsu; Ryu, Dongryeol; Dorigo, Wouter; Zwieback, Simon; Gruber, Alexander; Albergel, Clement; Reichle, Rolf H.; Wagner, Wolfgang

    2016-01-01

    Climate Data Records (CDR) that blend multiple satellite products are invaluable for climate studies, trend analysis and risk assessments. Knowledge of any inhomogeneities in the CDR is therefore critical for making correct inferences. This work proposes a methodology to identify the spatiotemporal extent of the inhomogeneities in a 36-year, global multisatellite soil moisture CDR as the result of changing observing systems. Inhomogeneities are detected at up to 24 percent of the tested pixels with spatial extent varying with satellite changeover times. Nevertheless, the contiguous periods without inhomogeneities at changeover times are generally longer than 10 years. Although the inhomogeneities have measurable impact on the derived trends, these trends are similar to those observed in ground data and land surface reanalysis, with an average error less than 0.003 cubic meters per cubic meter per year. These results strengthen the basis of using the product for long-term studies and demonstrate the necessity of homogeneity testing of multisatellite CDRs in general.

  14. Global change impacts on mangrove ecosystems

    McKee, Karen L.

    2004-01-01

    Mangroves are tropical/subtropical communities of primarily tree species that grow in the intertidal zone. These tidal forests are important coastal ecosystems that are valued for a variety of ecological and societal goods and services. Major local threats to mangrove ecosystems worldwide include clearcutting and trimming of forests for urban, agricultural, or industrial expansion; hydrological alterations; toxic chemical spills; and eutrophication. In many countries with mangroves, much of the human population resides in the coastal zone, and their activities often negatively impact the integrity of mangrove forests. In addition, eutrophication, which is the process whereby nutrients build up to higher than normal levels in a natural system, is possibly one of the most serious threats to mangroves and associated ecosystems such as coral reefs. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the National Wetlands Research Center are working to more fully understand global impacts on these significant ecosystems.Changes in climate and other factors may also affect mangroves, but in complex ways. Global warming may promote expansion of mangrove forests to higher latitudes and accelerate sea-level rise through melting of polar ice or steric expansion of oceans. Changes in sea level would alter flooding patterns and the structure and areal extent of mangroves. Climate change may also alter rainfall patterns, which would in turn change local salinity regimes and competitive interactions of mangroves with other wetland species. Increases in frequency or intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes in combination with sea-level rise may alter erosion and sedimentation rates in mangrove forests. Another global change factor that may directly affect mangrove growth is increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), caused by burning of fossil fuels and other factors. Elevated CO2 concentration may increase mangrove growth by stimulating photosynthesis or improving water use

  15. Climate resilient crops for improving global food security and safety.

    Dhankher, Om Parkash; Foyer, Christine H

    2018-05-01

    Food security and the protection of the environment are urgent issues for global society, particularly with the uncertainties of climate change. Changing climate is predicted to have a wide range of negative impacts on plant physiology metabolism, soil fertility and carbon sequestration, microbial activity and diversity that will limit plant growth and productivity, and ultimately food production. Ensuring global food security and food safety will require an intensive research effort across the food chain, starting with crop production and the nutritional quality of the food products. Much uncertainty remains concerning the resilience of plants, soils, and associated microbes to climate change. Intensive efforts are currently underway to improve crop yields with lower input requirements and enhance the sustainability of yield through improved biotic and abiotic stress tolerance traits. In addition, significant efforts are focused on gaining a better understanding of the root/soil interface and associated microbiomes, as well as enhancing soil properties. © 2018 The Authors Plant, Cell & Environment Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Modelling global nitrogen export to ground and surface water from natural ecosystems: impact of N deposition, climate, and CO2 concentration

    Braakhekke, Maarten; Rebel, Karin; Dekker, Stefan; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc; Smith, Ben; Wassen, Martin

    2015-04-01

    For large regions in the world strong increases in atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition are predicted as a result of emissions from fossil fuel combustion and food production. This will cause many previously N limited ecosystems to become N saturated, leading to increased export to ground and surface water and negative impacts on the environment and human health. However, precise N export fluxes are difficult to predict. Due to its strong link to carbon, N in vegetation and soil is also determined by productivity, as affected by rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature, and denitrification. Furthermore, the N concentration of water delivered to streams depends strongly on local hydrological conditions. We aim to study how N delivery to ground and surface water is affected by changes in environmental factors. To this end we are developing a global dynamic modelling system that integrates representations of N cycling in vegetation and soil, and N delivery to ground and surface water. This will be achieved by coupling the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, which includes representations of N cycling, as well as croplands and pasture, to the global water balance model PCR-GLOBWB, which simulates surface runoff, interflow, groundwater recharge, and baseflow. This coupling will allow us to trace N across different systems and estimate the input of N into the riverine system which can be used as input for river biogeochemical models. We will present large scale estimates of N leaching and transport to ground and surface water for natural ecosystems in different biomes, based on a loose coupling of the two models. Furthermore, by means of a factorial model experiment we will explore how these fluxes are influenced by N deposition, temperature, and CO2 concentration.

  17. Global warming and livestock husbandry in Kenya. Impacts and adaptations

    Kabubo-Mariara, Jane

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines the economic impact of climate change on livestock production in Kenya. We estimate a Ricardian model of net livestock incomes and further estimate the marginal impacts of climate change. We also simulate the impact of different climate scenarios on livestock incomes. The Ricardian results show that livestock production in Kenya is highly sensitive to climate change and that there is a non-linear relationship between climate change and livestock productivity. The estimated marginal impacts suggest modest gains from rising temperatures and losses from increased precipitation. The predictions from atmospheric ocean general circulation models suggest that livestock farmers in Kenya are likely to incur heavy losses from global warming. The highest and lowest losses are predicted from the Hadley Centre Coupled model (HADCM) and Parallel Climate Model (PCM) respectively, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The paper concludes that in the long term, climate change is likely to lead to increased poverty, vulnerability and loss of livelihoods. Several policy interventions are recommended to counter this impact. (author)

  18. Global warming and livestock husbandry in Kenya. Impacts and adaptations

    Kabubo-Mariara, Jane [School of Economics, University of Nairobi, P.O. Box 30197, 00100, Nairobi (Kenya)

    2009-05-15

    This paper examines the economic impact of climate change on livestock production in Kenya. We estimate a Ricardian model of net livestock incomes and further estimate the marginal impacts of climate change. We also simulate the impact of different climate scenarios on livestock incomes. The Ricardian results show that livestock production in Kenya is highly sensitive to climate change and that there is a non-linear relationship between climate change and livestock productivity. The estimated marginal impacts suggest modest gains from rising temperatures and losses from increased precipitation. The predictions from atmospheric ocean general circulation models suggest that livestock farmers in Kenya are likely to incur heavy losses from global warming. The highest and lowest losses are predicted from the Hadley Centre Coupled model (HADCM) and Parallel Climate Model (PCM) respectively, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The paper concludes that in the long term, climate change is likely to lead to increased poverty, vulnerability and loss of livelihoods. Several policy interventions are recommended to counter this impact. (author)

  19. Climate Prediction Center - Global Tropical Hazards Assessment

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Organization Search Go Search the CPC Go Climate Outlooks Climate & Weather Link El Niño/La Niña MJO Teleconnections AO NAO PNA AAO Blocking Storm Tracks Climate Glossary Outreach About Us Our Mission Who We Are

  20. The European climate under a 2 °C global warming

    Vautard, Robert; Stegehuis, Annemiek; Gobiet, Andreas; Mendlik, Thomas; Sobolowski, Stefan; Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Watkiss, Paul; Landgren, Oskar; Teichmann, Claas; Jacob, Daniela

    2014-01-01

    A global warming of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 °C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and extreme temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North–South (West–East) warming gradient is found for summer (winter) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer extreme temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models’ climate sensitivity. (paper)

  1. Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions

    Samset, B. H.; Sand, M.; Smith, C. J.; Bauer, S. E.; Forster, P. M.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Osprey, S.; Schleussner, C.-F.

    2018-01-01

    Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5-1.1°C, and precipitation increase of 2.0-4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near-term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing.

  2. Global Responses to Potential Climate Change: A Simulation.

    Williams, Mary Louise; Mowry, George

    This interdisciplinary five-day unit provides students with an understanding of the issues in the debate on global climate change. Introductory lessons enhance understanding of the "greenhouse gases" and their sources with possible global effects of climate change. Students then roleplay negotiators from 10 nations in a simulation of the…

  3. Assessment of the Impact of Metropolitan-Scale Urban Planning Scenarios on the Moist Thermal Environment under Global Warming: A Study of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area Using Regional Climate Modeling

    Asuka Suzuki-Parker

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Using a high-resolution regional climate model coupled with urban canopy model, the present study provides the first attempt in quantifying the impact of metropolitan-scale urban planning scenarios on moist thermal environment under global warming. Tokyo metropolitan area is selected as a test case. Three urban planning scenarios are considered: status quo, dispersed city, and compact city. Their impact on the moist thermal environment is assessed using wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT. Future projections for the 2070s show a 2–4°C increase in daytime mean WBGT relative to the current climate. The urban scenario impacts are shown to be small, with a −0.4 to +0.4°C range. Relative changes in temperature and humidity as the result of a given urban scenario are shown to be critical in determining the sign of the WBGT changes; however, such changes are not necessarily determined by local changes in urban land surface parameters. These findings indicate that urban land surface changes may improve or worsen the local moist thermal environment and that metropolitan-scale urban planning is inefficient in mitigating heat-related health risks for mature cities like Tokyo.

  4. Global climate change: a synopsis of current activities in the Office of Fossil Energy

    South, D.W.; Kane, R.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports on the US DOE Office of Fossil Energy investigation and monitoring of several aspects of global climate change as it relates to fossil fuels. The paper consists of the overheads from the presentation. The topics of this paper include greenhouse gases from fossil fuels, scientific uncertainties, legislation and protocols, mitigation strategies and policies, energy and economic impacts, and the role of clean coal technologies and fossil fuels in global climate change

  5. Deterioration and modification of the biosphere leading to irreversible climatic change of the global ecosystem

    1975-01-01

    The level, intensity, nature and impact of man's activities upon weather and climatic changes are explored. It is shown that industrialization leads to increased CO2 levels, atmospheric dust content and land surfaces changes. This in turn causes global climatic interactions which results in a general cooling trend. Global cooperation is advocated to stem environmental degradation and weather pattern interruption by the use of corrective mechanisms.

  6. Methodologies for assessing socio-economic impacts of climate change

    Smit, B.

    1993-01-01

    Much of the studies on climate change impacts have focused on physical and biological impacts, yet a knowledge of the social and economic impacts of climate change is likely to have a greater impact on the public and on policymakers. A conventional assessment of the impacts of climate change begins with scenarios of future climate, commonly derived from global climate models translated to a regional scale. Estimates of biophysical conditions provided by such scenarios provide a basis for analyses of human impacts, usually considered sector by sector. The scenario approach, although having considerable merit and appeal, has some noteworthy limitations. It encourages consideration of only a small set of scenarios, requires bold assumptions to be made about adjustments in human systems, provides little direct analysis of sensitivities of human social and economic systems to climate perturbations, and usually invokes the assumption that all factors other than climate are stable and have no synergistic effects on human systems. Conventional studies concentrate on average climate, yet climate is inherently variable. A common response to this situation is to propose further development of climate models, but this is not a sufficient or necessary condition for good and useful assessments of impacts on human activities. Different approaches to socioeconomic impact analysis are needed, and approaches should be considered that include identification of sensitivities in a social or ecological system, identification of critical threshold levels or critical speeds of change in variables, and exploration of alternative methodologies such as process studies, spatial and temporal analogues, and socio-economic systems modelling. 5 refs., 3 figs

  7. Session B4 Management for sustainable use — Global climate ...

    The IPCC Third Assessment Report confirms that the evidence for global climate change is now stronger than ever. While efforts to minimise climate change are vital, some degree of change is already inevitable. The key questions for rangelands are no longer whether climate change will occur, but how to adapt to it, and if ...

  8. National ownership in the implementation of global climate policy in Uganda

    Olsen, K.H.

    2006-01-01

    This article explores the history, from a developing country perspective, of how external interventions to implement global policies on the Climate Convention and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) have been integrated into national development policy frameworks in the period 1990-2005. The main...... question asked is to what extent external interventions have formed part of a country-driven approach in Uganda. The conflicting national and global priorities concerning the need for adaptation to the impacts of climate change versus the need for global mitigation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are explored...... first. Against this background, Uganda's policy response to climate change is reviewed. National climate policies are found not to exist, and the implementation of global policies is not integrated into national policy frameworks, partly due to conflicting national and global priorities. Given limited...

  9. Did the Stern Review underestimate US and global climate damages?

    Ackerman, Frank; Stanton, Elizabeth A.; Hope, Chris; Alberth, Stephane

    2009-01-01

    The Stern Review received widespread attention for its innovative approach to the economics of climate change when it appeared in 2006, and generated controversies that have continued to this day. One key controversy concerns the magnitude of the expected impacts of climate change. Stern's estimates, based on results from the PAGE2002 model, sounded substantially greater than those produced by many other models, leading several critics to suggest that Stern had inflated his damage figures. We reached the opposite conclusion in a recent application of PAGE2002 in a study of the costs to the US economy of inaction on climate change. This article describes our revisions to the PAGE estimates, and explains our conclusion that the model runs used in the Stern Review may well underestimate US and global damages. Stern's estimates from PAGE2002 implied that mean business-as-usual damages in 2100 would represent just 0.4 percent of GDP for the United States and 2.2 percent of GDP for the world. Our revisions and reinterpretation of the PAGE model imply that climate damages in 2100 could reach 2.6 percent of GDP for the United States and 10.8 percent for the world.

  10. Maize production in terms of global climate changes

    Bekavac Goran

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate changes and expected variability of climatic parameters represent a serious concern of the 21st century agriculture. At the global level, the further rise in temperature, changed quantity and distribution of precipitation, increased variability of climate parameters and the occurrence of extreme climate events are expected. In order to avoid, or at least reduce the negative effects of global climate change, several adaptation strategies are proposed. Adjustment of production technology and breeding for tolerance to changed environment are proposed as two most important adaptation measures.

  11. Braking effect of climate and topography on global change-induced upslope forest expansion.

    Alatalo, Juha M; Ferrarini, Alessandro

    2017-03-01

    Forests are expected to expand into alpine areas due to global climate change. It has recently been shown that temperature alone cannot realistically explain this process and that upslope tree advance in a warmer scenario may depend on the availability of sites with adequate geomorphic/topographic characteristics. Here, we show that, besides topography (slope and aspect), climate itself can produce a braking effect on the upslope advance of subalpine forests and that tree limit is influenced by non-linear and non-monotonic contributions of the climate variables which act upon treeline upslope advance with varying relative strengths. Our results suggest that global climate change impact on the upslope advance of subalpine forests should be interpreted in a more complex way where climate can both speed up and slow down the process depending on complex patterns of contribution from each climate and non-climate variable.

  12. Evidence of Climate Change (Global Warming) and Temperature Increases in Arctic Areas

    Eric Kojo Wu Aikins

    2012-01-01

    This paper contributes to the debate on the proximate causes of climate change. Also, it discusses the impact of the global temperature increases since the beginning of the twentieth century and the effectiveness of climate change models in isolating the primary cause (anthropogenic influences or natural variability in temperature) of the observed temperature increases that occurred within this period. The paper argues that if climate scientist and policymakers ignore the...

  13. PERSPECTIVE: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security

    Cassman, Kenneth G.

    2007-03-01

    There is a new urgency to improve the accuracy of predicting climate change impact on crop yields because the balance between food supply and demand is shifting abruptly from surplus to deficit. This reversal is being driven by a rapid rise in petroleum prices and, in response, a massive global expansion of biofuel production from maize, oilseed, and sugar crops. Soon the price of these commodities will be determined by their value as feedstock for biofuel rather than their importance as human food or livestock feed [1]. The expectation that petroleum prices will remain high and supportive government policies in several major crop producing countries are providing strong momentum for continued expansion of biofuel production capacity and the associated pressures on global food supply. Farmers in countries that account for a majority of the world's biofuel crop production will enjoy the promise of markedly higher commodity prices and incomesNote1. In contrast, urban and rural poor in food-importing countries will pay much higher prices for basic food staples and there will be less grain available for humanitarian aid. For example, the developing countries of Africa import about 10 MMt of maize each year; another 3 5 MMt of cereal grains are provided as humanitarian aid (figure 1). In a world where more than 800 million are already undernourished and the demand for crop commodities may soon exceed supply, alleviating hunger will no longer be solely a matter of poverty alleviation and more equitable food distribution, which has been the situation for the past thirty years. Instead, food security will also depend on accelerating the rate of gain in crop yields and food production capacity at both local and global scales. Maize imports and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa Figure 1. Maize imports (yellow bar) and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa, 2001 2003. MMT = million metric tons. Data

  14. On coupling global biome models with climate models

    Claussen, M.

    1994-01-01

    The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992; J. Biogeogr. 19: 117-134), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, was coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fiir Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany. It was found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only betw...

  15. GLOBAL WARMING, CLIMATE CHANGE AND TOURISM: A REVIEW OF LITERATURE

    Ramasamy, Rajesh; Swamy, Anjaneya

    2015-01-01

    Global warming, climate change and tourism of late, have taken the centre stage of academic research. A raging debate is on apart from the popular writings and research articles published on the theme. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice since the mid 20th century”. This conceptual paper discussed...

  16. Trump's Doctrine and Climate Change: New Challenges for Global Governance

    Contipelli, Ernani

    2017-01-01

    The present communication aims to discuss the main topics related to Trump’s Doctrine and its effects on the implementation of global governance to fight against Climate Change. To present the argument, first, we will analyze the relation between global governance and climate change, followed by a general view of the climate change by some Republican Party members, and finally, the current policies already put in place by President Trump

  17. Global Warming and Its Health Impact.

    Rossati, Antonella

    2017-01-01

    Since the mid-19th century, human activities have increased greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide in the Earth's atmosphere that resulted in increased average temperature. The effects of rising temperature include soil degradation, loss of productivity of agricultural land, desertification, loss of biodiversity, degradation of ecosystems, reduced fresh-water resources, acidification of the oceans, and the disruption and depletion of stratospheric ozone. All these have an impact on human health, causing non-communicable diseases such as injuries during natural disasters, malnutrition during famine, and increased mortality during heat waves due to complications in chronically ill patients. Direct exposure to natural disasters has also an impact on mental health and, although too complex to be quantified, a link has even been established between climate and civil violence. Over time, climate change can reduce agricultural resources through reduced availability of water, alterations and shrinking arable land, increased pollution, accumulation of toxic substances in the food chain, and creation of habitats suitable to the transmission of human and animal pathogens. People living in low-income countries are particularly vulnerable. Climate change scenarios include a change in distribution of infectious diseases with warming and changes in outbreaks associated with weather extreme events. After floods, increased cases of leptospirosis, campylobacter infections and cryptosporidiosis are reported. Global warming affects water heating, rising the transmission of water-borne pathogens. Pathogens transmitted by vectors are particularly sensitive to climate change because they spend a good part of their life cycle in a cold-blooded host invertebrate whose temperature is similar to the environment. A warmer climate presents more favorable conditions for the survival and the completion of the life cycle of the vector, going as far as to speed it up

  18. Global Warming and Its Health Impact

    Antonella Rossati

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the mid-19th century, human activities have increased greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide in the Earth's atmosphere that resulted in increased average temperature. The effects of rising temperature include soil degradation, loss of productivity of agricultural land, desertification, loss of biodiversity, degradation of ecosystems, reduced fresh-water resources, acidification of the oceans, and the disruption and depletion of stratospheric ozone. All these have an impact on human health, causing non-communicable diseases such as injuries during natural disasters, malnutrition during famine, and increased mortality during heat waves due to complications in chronically ill patients. Direct exposure to natural disasters has also an impact on mental health and, although too complex to be quantified, a link has even been established between climate and civil violence. Over time, climate change can reduce agricultural resources through reduced availability of water, alterations and shrinking arable land, increased pollution, accumulation of toxic substances in the food chain, and creation of habitats suitable to the transmission of human and animal pathogens. People living in low-income countries are particularly vulnerable. Climate change scenarios include a change in distribution of infectious diseases with warming and changes in outbreaks associated with weather extreme events. After floods, increased cases of leptospirosis, campylobacter infections and cryptosporidiosis are reported. Global warming affects water heating, rising the transmission of water-borne pathogens. Pathogens transmitted by vectors are particularly sensitive to climate change because they spend a good part of their life cycle in a cold-blooded host invertebrate whose temperature is similar to the environment. A warmer climate presents more favorable conditions for the survival and the completion of the life cycle of the vector, going as far

  19. Global Climate Models Intercomparison of Anthropogenic Aerosols Effects on Regional Climate over North Pacific

    Hu, J.; Zhang, R.; Wang, Y.; Ming, Y.; Lin, Y.; Pan, B.

    2015-12-01

    Aerosols can alter atmospheric radiation and cloud physics, which further exert impacts on weather and global climate. With the development and industrialization of the developing Asian countries, anthropogenic aerosols have received considerable attentions and remain to be the largest uncertainty in the climate projection. Here we assess the performance of two stat-of-art global climate models (National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Atmosphere Model 5 (CAM5) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmosphere Model 3 (AM3)) in simulating the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on North Pacific storm track region. By contrasting two aerosol scenarios, i.e. present day (PD) and pre-industrial (PI), both models show aerosol optical depth (AOD) enhanced by about 22%, with CAM5 AOD 40% lower in magnitude due to the long range transport of anthropogenic aerosols. Aerosol effects on the ice water path (IWP), stratiform precipitation, convergence and convection strengths in the two models are distinctive in patterns and magnitudes. AM3 shows qualitatively good agreement with long-term satellite observations, while CAM5 overestimates convection and liquid water path resulting in an underestimation of large-scale precipitation and IWP. Due to coarse resolution and parameterization in convection schemes, both models' performance on convection needs to be improved. Aerosols performance on large-scale circulation and radiative budget are also examined in this study.

  20. Deducing Climatic Elasticity to Assess Projected Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow Change across China

    Liu, Jianyu; Zhang, Qiang; Zhang, Yongqiang; Chen, Xi; Li, Jianfeng; Aryal, Santosh K.

    2017-10-01

    Climatic elasticity has been widely applied to assess streamflow responses to climate changes. To fully assess impacts of climate under global warming on streamflow and reduce the error and uncertainty from various control variables, we develop a four-parameter (precipitation, catchment characteristics n, and maximum and minimum temperatures) climatic elasticity method named PnT, based on the widely used Budyko framework and simplified Makkink equation. We use this method to carry out the first comprehensive evaluation of the streamflow response to potential climate change for 372 widely spread catchments in China. The PnT climatic elasticity was first evaluated for a period 1980-2000, and then used to evaluate streamflow change response to climate change based on 12 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The results show that (1) the PnT climatic elasticity method is reliable; (2) projected increasing streamflow takes place in more than 60% of the selected catchments, with mean increments of 9% and 15.4% under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively; and (3) uncertainties in the projected streamflow are considerable in several regions, such as the Pearl River and Yellow River, with more than 40% of the selected catchments showing inconsistent change directions. Our results can help Chinese policy makers to manage and plan water resources more effectively, and the PnT climatic elasticity should be applied to other parts of the world.

  1. Potential Impacts of Climate Change in Kenya

    Ogola, J.S.; Abira, M.A.; Awuor, V.O.

    1997-01-01

    According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), climate change is attributed directly or indirectly to human activities that alter the composition of the global atmosphere. It is a phenomenon that is still inadequately understood by the general public. Planners, policy makers and even within institutions of learning, but one which is bound to affect our environment and development activities. There is therefore need for information dissemination, systematic research, policy formulation, and development of strategies for managing climate change. The book is divided into five parts, Part I presents basic information on climate change; Part II looks at climatic change and natural resources; Part III discusses implications of climate change; Part IV presents ethical issues related to climatic change; and Part V deals with responses to climate change

  2. Quantifying the Climate Impacts of Land Use Change (Invited)

    Anderson-Teixeira, K. J.; Snyder, P. K.; Twine, T. E.

    2010-12-01

    Climate change mitigation efforts that involve land use decisions call for comprehensive quantification of the climate services of terrestrial ecosystems. This is particularly imperative for analyses of the climate impact of bioenergy production, as land use change is often the single most important factor in determining bioenergy’s sustainability. However, current metrics of the climate services of terrestrial ecosystems used for policy applications—including biofuels life cycle analyses—account only for biogeochemical climate services (greenhouse gas regulation), ignoring biophysical climate regulation services (regulation of water and energy balances). Policies thereby run the risk of failing to advance the best climate solutions. Here, we present a quantitative metric that combines biogeochemical and biophysical climate services of terrestrial ecosystems, the ‘climate regulation value’ (CRV), which characterizes the climate benefit of maintaining an ecosystem over a multiple-year time frame. Using a combination of data synthesis and modeling, we calculate the CRV for a variety of natural and managed ecosystem types within the western hemisphere. Biogeochemical climate services are generally positive in unmanaged ecosystems (clearing the ecosystem has a warming effect), and may be positive or negative (clearing the ecosystem has a cooling effect) for managed ecosystems. Biophysical climate services may be either positive (e.g., tropical forests) or negative (e.g., high latitude forests). When averaged on a global scale, biogeochemical services usually outweigh biophysical services; however, biophysical climate services are not negligible. This implies that effective analysis of the climate impacts of bioenergy production must consider the integrated effects of biogeochemical and biophysical ecosystem climate services.

  3. Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Cocoa ...

    Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Cocoa ( Theobroma Cacao ) Yields in Meme Division, South West Region of Cameroon. ... Farm selection was based on age, consistency of sizes and management practices in an attempt to keep the factors affecting cocoa yield constant. Data on cocoa yield, flowering, ...

  4. Climatic change impacts in Lombardia region

    Fiorese, G.; Gatto, M.; De Leo, G.

    2008-01-01

    Climatic change will change significantly our Country through impacts of natural and physical systems, on human health and the productive sectors. This article describes the expected impacts in Lombardia region [it

  5. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming

    Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined. PMID:26418127

  6. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming.

    Lineman, Maurice; Do, Yuno; Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined.

  7. Impacts of climate change on resource management in the north

    1993-01-01

    A Canada/USA symposium was held to communicate with people of the Arctic regions of North America about current issues in climate and climatic change; to promote dialogue between northern groups about various aspects of the climate problem relevant to northern people; and to discuss and formulate recommendations regarding management of northern resources that might be affected by global warming and associated regional climatic change. Papers were presented on the impacts of climatic change on water resources and hydrology, snow cover and sea ice, forest ecosystems, wildlife and marine resources, offshore petroleum operations, engineered structures, and the socio-economic system in the north. Arctic research programs and international initiatives on climatic change were also described. Separate abstracts have been prepared for 21 papers from this symposium

  8. Development directions of the global climate protection law

    Richter, Katharina

    2014-01-01

    The contribution on development directions of the global climate protection law covers the origination process of the Kyoto protocol, the precise form of the Kyoto protocol, the climate protection regime afterwards: Montreal 2005 - implementation-improvement-innovation, Nairobi 2006 - climatic change very close, Bali 2007 - roadmap, Posen 2008 - intermediate step, Copenhagen 2009 - stagnancy, Cancun 2010 - comeback, Durban 2011 - gleam of hope, Doha 2012 - minimum compromise, Warsaw 2013 - hope. The last chapter discusses the fundamental problems and perspectives of the climate protection laws.

  9. Climate Change Impacts on the Mediterranean Coastal Zones

    Brochier, F.; Ramieri, E.

    2001-04-01

    The main objective of this paper is to highlight the potential impacts of changes in climatic conditions and in related variables, which could affect coastal areas, as well as to identify potential response measures which could reduce the vulnerability of coastal systems and enhance their adaptability. Attention will be focused on the Mediterranean basin which is in the climate change context, a zone of great interest and of recent concern at the world scale by some features: strong ocean-atmosphere-land interactions; contrast between the small size of the sea and its significant role in the global climate system; possibility to use it at a scaled down model for the monitoring of environmental and climate evolution; critical environmental conditions of some areas and high human pressure; and strong geographical, socio-economic and climatic contrasts. The first section provides an introduction to the climate change issue, the past trends and the projections of future climate at the global scale. The second section presents the main features of the Mediterranean basin and some relevant regional projections of future climatic variables. The third section focuses on the main likely impacts on the Mediterranean coasts. Different coastal systems - such as islands, deltas, estuaries, coastal wetlands and coastal cities - and different climate change impacts - such as inundation, increased flooding, salinisation, salt water intrusion, desertification, and increased erosion - are addressed in this section. Finally the last section brings some conclusions and identify some strategies of adaptations and directions for future research aimed at improving our ability to predict and assess the local impacts of climate change in the region

  10. Do global change experiments overestimate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems?

    Leuzinger, Sebastian; Luo, Yiqi; Beier, Claus

    2011-01-01

    In recent decades, many climate manipulation experiments have investigated biosphere responses to global change. These experiments typically examined effects of elevated atmospheric CO2, warming or drought (driver variables) on ecosystem processes such as the carbon and water cycle (response...... of the responses to decline with higher-order interactions, longer time periods and larger spatial scales. This means that on average, both positive and negative global change impacts on the biosphere might be dampened more than previously assumed....

  11. Impact of Global Warming on Flora and Fauna

    , A. Srivastava; , S. Srivastav

    2011-01-01

    The paper, illustrated with graphs, discusses the impact of global warming on şora & fauna, its underlying causes, and attempts to trim down it with the collaboration of all individuals. The paper relates that, as an outcome of global warming, climate changes have reached anomalous levels with rainfall and hurricanes of unusual intensity. Everyday gases such as carbon dioxide are released to warm the earth, allowing it to be a place that can be inhabited by şora & fauna. Howev...

  12. Future Projection of Ocean Wave Climate: Analysis of SST Impacts on Wave Climate Changes in the Western North Pacific

    Shimura, Tomoya; Mori, Nobuhito; Mase, Hajime

    2015-01-01

    Changes in ocean surface waves elicit a variety of impacts on coastal environments. To assess the future changes in the ocean surface wave climate, several future projections of global wave climate have been simulated in previous studies. However, previously there has been little discussion about the causes behind changes in the future wave climate and the differences between projections. The objective of this study is to estimate the future changes in mean wave climate and the sensitivity of...

  13. Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

    Enriquez-de-Salamanca, Alvaro; Diaz Sierra, R.; Martin-Aranda, Rosa; Ferreira Dos Santos, M.J.

    Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship

  14. Global Squeeze: Assessing Climate-Critical Resource Constraints for Coastal Climate Adaptation

    Chase, N. T.; Becker, A.; Schwegler, B.; Fischer, M.

    2014-12-01

    The projected impacts of climate change in the coastal zone will require local planning and local resources to adapt to increasing risks of social, environmental, and economic consequences from extreme events. This means that, for the first time in human history, aggregated local demands could outpace global supply of certain "climate-critical resources." For example, construction materials such as sand and gravel, steel, and cement may be needed to fortify many coastal locations at roughly the same point in time if decision makers begin to construct new storm barriers or elevate coastal lands. Where might adaptation bottlenecks occur? Can the world produce enough cement to armour the world's seaports as flood risks increase due to sea-level rise and more intense storms? Just how many coastal engineers would multiple such projects require? Understanding such global implications of adaptation requires global datasets—such as bathymetry, coastal topography, local sea-level rise and storm surge projections, and construction resource production capacity—that are currently unavailable at a resolution appropriate for a global-scale analysis. Our research group has identified numerous gaps in available data necessary to make such estimates on both the supply and demand sides of this equation. This presentation examines the emerging need and current availability of these types of datasets and argues for new coordinated efforts to develop and share such data.

  15. Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006 – 2007

    Tucker Compton J; Small Jennifer; Chretien Jean-Paul; Anyamba Assaf; Linthicum Kenneth J

    2006-01-01

    Abstract Background El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hem...

  16. Climate impact from peat utilisation in Sweden

    Uppenberg, S.; Zetterberg, L.; Aahman, M.

    2001-08-01

    The climate impact from the use of peat for energy production in Sweden has been evaluated in terms of contribution to atmospheric radiative forcing. This was done by attempting to answer the question 'What will be the climate impact if one would use 1 m{sup 2} of mire for peat extraction during 20 years?'. Two different methods of after-treatment were studied: afforestation and restoration of wetland. The climate impact from a peatland - wetland energy scenario and a peatland - forestry energy scenario was compared to the climate impact from coal, natural gas and forest residues. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate which parameters that are important to take into consideration in order to minimize the climate impact from peat utilisation.

  17. Climate impact from peat utilisation in Sweden

    Uppenberg, S.; Zetterberg, L.; Aahman, M.

    2001-08-01

    The climate impact from the use of peat for energy production in Sweden has been evaluated in terms of contribution to atmospheric radiative forcing. This was done by attempting to answer the question 'What will be the climate impact if one would use 1 m 2 of mire for peat extraction during 20 years?'. Two different methods of after-treatment were studied: afforestation and restoration of wetland. The climate impact from a peatland - wetland energy scenario and a peatland - forestry energy scenario was compared to the climate impact from coal, natural gas and forest residues. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate which parameters that are important to take into consideration in order to minimize the climate impact from peat utilisation

  18. Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  19. The climate4impact platform: Providing, tailoring and facilitating climate model data access

    Pagé, Christian; Pagani, Andrea; Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Mihajlovski, Andrej; de Vreede, Ernst; Spinuso, Alessandro; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Vega, Manuel; Cofiño, Antonio; d'Anca, Alessandro; Fiore, Sandro; Kolax, Michael

    2017-04-01

    One of the main objectives of climate4impact is to provide standardized web services and tools that are reusable in other portals. These services include web processing services, web coverage services and web mapping services (WPS, WCS and WMS). Tailored portals can be targeted to specific communities and/or countries/regions while making use of those services. Easier access to climate data is very important for the climate change impact communities. To fulfill this objective, the climate4impact (http://climate4impact.eu/) web portal and services has been developed, targeting climate change impact modellers, impact and adaptation consultants, as well as other experts using climate change data. It provides to users harmonized access to climate model data through tailored services. It features static and dynamic documentation, Use Cases and best practice examples, an advanced search interface, an integrated authentication and authorization system with the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), a visualization interface with ADAGUC web mapping tools. In the latest version, statistical downscaling services, provided by the Santander Meteorology Group Downscaling Portal, were integrated. An innovative interface to integrate statistical downscaling services will be released in the upcoming version. The latter will be a big step in bridging the gap between climate scientists and the climate change impact communities. The climate4impact portal builds on the infrastructure of an international distributed database that has been set to disseminate the results from the global climate model results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This database, the ESGF, is an international collaboration that develops, deploys and maintains software infrastructure for the management, dissemination, and analysis of climate model data. The European FP7 project IS-ENES, Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System modelling, supports the European

  20. Agricultural impact of climate change: A general equilibrium analysis with special reference to Southeast Asia

    Zhai, Fan; Zhuang, Juzhong

    2009-01-01

    Capitalizing on the most recent worldwide estimates of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production, this paper assesses the economic effects of climate change for Southeast Asian countries through 2080. The results suggest that the aggregate impacts of agricultural damages caused by climate change on the global economy are moderate. However, the uneven distribution of productivity losses across global regions would bring significant structural adjustments in worldwide agricultura...

  1. Global Energy Transitions and the Challenge of Climate Change

    Riahi, K.

    2008-01-01

    Global emissions of greenhouse-gases have increased markedly as a result of human activities since pre-industrial times. This increase in emissions has lead to unequivocal global warming, which is evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. Reducing the risk of irreversible climate impacts requires thus the mitigation of global GHG emissions aiming at the long-term stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations. Achieving this goal translates into the need of reducing emissions to virtually zero over long time-frames. Yet international agreement on a long-term climate policy target remains a distant prospect, due to both scientific uncertainty and political disagreement on the appropriate balance between mitigation costs and reduced risks of dangerous impacts. At the same time, growing emissions of greenhouse gases continue to increase the amount of climate change we are committed to over the long term. Over the next few decades, these growing emissions may make some potentially desirable long term goals unattainable. Recent analysis conducted at IIASA indicates the need of major energy transitions over the next few decades. For example, staying below the target suggested by the European Union of 2 C warming (with just a 50% likelihood) will require the massive deployment of zero-carbon energy by 2050, and a tippling of the contribution of zero-carbon energy globally to more than 60% by that time. Although there are large uncertainties with respect to the deployment of individual future technologies, there is strong evidence that no single mitigation measure alone would be sufficient for achieving the stabilization of GHG concentrations at low levels. A wide portfolio of technologies across all GHG-intensive sectors is needed for cost-effective emissions reductions. The bulk of these emissions reductions would need to come from the energy sector, with

  2. Scientist's Perceptions of Uncertainty During Discussions of Global Climate

    Romanello, S.; Fortner, R.; Dervin, B.

    2003-04-01

    This research examines the nature of disagreements between natural and social scientists during discussions of global climate change. In particular, it explores whether the disagreements between natural and social scientists are related to the ontological, epistemological, or methodological nature of the uncertainty of global climate change during these discussions. A purposeful sample of 30 natural and social scientists recognized as experts in global climate change by the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and National Academies Committee on Global Change were interviewed to elicit their perceptions of disagreements during their three most troublesome discussions on global climate change. A mixed-method (qualitative plus quantitative research) approach with three independent variables was used to explore nature of uncertainty as a mediating variable in the relationships between academic training, level of sureness, level of knowledge, and position on global climate change, and the nature of disagreements and bridging strategies of natural and social scientists (Patton, 1997; Frechtling et al., 1997). This dissertation posits that it is the differences in the nature of uncertainty communicated by natural and social scientists and not sureness, knowledge, and position on global climate change that causes disagreements between the groups. By describing the nature of disagreements between natural and social scientists and illuminating bridging techniques scientists use during these disagreements, it is hoped that information collected from this research will create a better dialogue between the scientists studying global climate change by providing communication strategies which will allow those versed in one particular area to speak to non-experts whether they be other scientists, media officials, or the public. These tangible strategies can then be used by government agencies to create better communications and education plans, which can

  3. Climate change and food security: health impacts in developed countries.

    Lake, Iain R; Hooper, Lee; Abdelhamid, Asmaa; Bentham, Graham; Boxall, Alistair B A; Draper, Alizon; Fairweather-Tait, Susan; Hulme, Mike; Hunter, Paul R; Nichols, Gordon; Waldron, Keith W

    2012-11-01

    Anthropogenic climate change will affect global food production, with uncertain consequences for human health in developed countries. We investigated the potential impact of climate change on food security (nutrition and food safety) and the implications for human health in developed countries. Expert input and structured literature searches were conducted and synthesized to produce overall assessments of the likely impacts of climate change on global food production and recommendations for future research and policy changes. Increasing food prices may lower the nutritional quality of dietary intakes, exacerbate obesity, and amplify health inequalities. Altered conditions for food production may result in emerging pathogens, new crop and livestock species, and altered use of pesticides and veterinary medicines, and affect the main transfer mechanisms through which contaminants move from the environment into food. All these have implications for food safety and the nutritional content of food. Climate change mitigation may increase consumption of foods whose production reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Impacts may include reduced red meat consumption (with positive effects on saturated fat, but negative impacts on zinc and iron intake) and reduced winter fruit and vegetable consumption. Developed countries have complex structures in place that may be used to adapt to the food safety consequences of climate change, although their effectiveness will vary between countries, and the ability to respond to nutritional challenges is less certain. Climate change will have notable impacts upon nutrition and food safety in developed countries, but further research is necessary to accurately quantify these impacts. Uncertainty about future impacts, coupled with evidence that climate change may lead to more variable food quality, emphasizes the need to maintain and strengthen existing structures and policies to regulate food production, monitor food quality and safety, and

  4. Climate Change and Bangladesh: Geographical and Socio-economic Impacts

    Farjana Jahan

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change, the effects of greenhouse effect and global warming, is out to alter the global map with its devouring prospects of sending a number of countries under the waves. Unfortunately yet unavoidably, Bangladesh stands at the forefront of climate forays. Its land, water and weather are being severely affected by undesirable climatic changes. Alarmingly, the dangers are to be intensified unless the trend is reversed. However, local initiative will hardly be enough to offset the grave concerns of unintended climatic changes in Bangladesh. The changes will also impact the socio-economic conditions of the country, putting the future of the nation on the line. Some ominous signs are already there for the concerned to respond with required amount of fervour. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/dsaj.v7i0.10439 Dhaulagiri Journal of Sociology and Anthropology Vol. 7, 2013; 113-132

  5. Global energy scenarios, climate change and sustainable development

    Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2003-01-01

    Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments may affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals; such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. They can help explore different transitions toward sustainable development paths and alternative energy perspectives in general. The considerable differences in expected total energy requirements among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate effects of different policy frameworks, changes in human behavior and investments in the future, as well as alternative unfolding of the main scenario driving forces such as demographic transitions, economic development and technological change. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for achieving further social and economic development in the world. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies. In general, significant policy and behavioral changes will be needed during the next few decades to achieve more sustainable development paths and mitigate climate change toward the end of the century. (au)

  6. Environmental Progression: The Psychological Justification for Reframing Climate Change and Global Warming

    Veldey, S. H.

    2016-12-01

    On-going research in climate science communication through environmental media has uncovered critical barriers to reducing denial and increasing agency in addressing the threat of climate change. Similar to framing of our changing environment as "global warming", the term "climate change" also fails to properly frame the most critical challenge our species has faced. In a set of preliminary studies, significant changes in climate crisis denial, both positive and negative, have resulted from different media messaging. Continuation of this research utilizes social judgement theory (SJT) to classify a broader spectrum of effective avenues for environmental communication. The specificity of the terms global warming and climate change limit inclusion of issues critical to understanding their impacts. Now that the masses know what climate change is, it's time to teach them what it means.

  7. Climate impact of transportation A model comparison

    Girod, B.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Grahn, M.; Kitous, A.; Kim, S.H.; Kyle, P.

    2013-01-01

    Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO2 emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global

  8. Global impact of Danish drama series

    Jensen, Pia Majbritt

    2016-01-01

    In recent years Danish TV series have experienced a global export boom. This article maps the regional and global export patterns over the last fifteen years in order to assess the international impact of Danish TV drama.......In recent years Danish TV series have experienced a global export boom. This article maps the regional and global export patterns over the last fifteen years in order to assess the international impact of Danish TV drama....

  9. TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958–2015

    Abatzoglou, John T.; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.; Hegewisch, Katherine C.

    2018-01-01

    We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958–2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and sol...

  10. Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change and globalization in India

    O' Brien, Karen; Aandahl, Guro; Tompkins, Heather [CICERO, Oslo (NO)] (and others)

    2004-12-01

    There is growing recognition in the human dimensions research community that climate change impact studies must take into account the effects of other ongoing global changes. Yet there has been no systematic methodology to study climate change vulnerability in the context of multiple stressors. Using the example of Indian agriculture, this paper presents a methodology for investigating regional vulnerability to climate change in combination with other global stressors. This method, which relies on both vulnerability mapping and local- level case studies, may be used to assess differential vulnerability for any particular sector within a nation or region, and it can serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions. (Author)

  11. Economic implications of climate-driven trends in global hydropower generation

    Turner, S. W. D.; Galelli, S.; Hejazi, M. I.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Kim, S. H.

    2017-12-01

    Recent progress in global scale hydrological and dam modeling has allowed for the study of climate change impacts on global hydropower production. Here we explore how these impacts could affect the composition of global electricity supply, and what those changes could mean for power sector emissions and investment needs in the 21st century. Regional hydropower projections are developed for two emissions scenarios by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model (1593 major hydropower dams; 54% global installed capacity) with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations derived from sixteen General Circulation Models (GCMs). To incorporate possible non-linearity in hydropower response to climate change, dam simulations incorporate plant specifications (e.g., maximum turbine flow), reservoir storage dynamics, reservoir bathymetry, evaporation losses and bespoke, site specific operations. Consequent impacts on regional and global-level electricity generation and associated emissions and investment costs are examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We show that changes in hydropower generation resulting from climate change can shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies, resulting in significant impacts on CO2 emissions for several regions. Many of these countries are also highly vulnerable to investment impacts (costs of new electricity generating facilities to make up for shortfalls in hydro), which in some cases amount to tens of billions of dollars by 2100. The Balkans region—typified by weak economies in a drying region that relies heavily on hydropower—emerges as the most vulnerable. Reduced impacts of climate change on hydropower production under a low emissions scenario coincide with increased costs of marginal power generating capacity (low emissions requires greater uptake of clean generating technologies, which are more expensive). This means impacts on power sector investment costs are similar for high

  12. Life on a warmer earth: possible climatic consequences of man made global warming

    Flohn, H

    1981-01-01

    The interaction between energy and climate is explored, including the impact on global climate of three main energy sources: solar, nuclear and fossil fuels. The global warming problem is introduced. Comprehensive analogies with warmer times are made. From the best models available, the future global average surface temperature is found and modified, describing the global warming effects caused by greenhouse effect caused by gases other than carbon dioxide, released into the atmosphere by man, i.e. nitrous oxide, methane, ammonia, and the chlorofluoromethanes. Paleoclimatic scenarios are reviewed, showing possible effects of global warming. An 800 to 1100 ppm CO/sub 2/ concentration causes irreversible Arctic melting, leading to displacement of present climatic zones by 400 to 800 km.

  13. Challenges and Opportunities for Integrating Social Science Perspectives into Climate and Global Change Assessments

    Larson, E. K.; Li, J.; Zycherman, A.

    2017-12-01

    Integration of social science into climate and global change assessments is fundamental for improving understanding of the drivers, impacts and vulnerability of climate change, and the social, cultural and behavioral challenges related to climate change responses. This requires disciplinary and interdisciplinary knowledge as well as integrational and translational tools for linking this knowledge with the natural and physical sciences. The USGCRP's Social Science Coordinating Committee (SSCC) is tasked with this challenge and is working to integrate relevant social, economic and behavioral knowledge into processes like sustained assessments. This presentation will discuss outcomes from a recent SSCC workshop, "Social Science Perspectives on Climate Change" and their applications to sustained assessments. The workshop brought academic social scientists from four disciplines - anthropology, sociology, geography and archaeology - together with federal scientists and program managers to discuss three major research areas relevant to the USGCRP and climate assessments: (1) innovative tools, methods, and analyses to clarify the interactions of human and natural systems under climate change, (2) understanding of factors contributing to differences in social vulnerability between and within communities under climate change, and (3) social science perspectives on drivers of global climate change. These disciplines, collectively, emphasize the need to consider socio-cultural, political, economic, geographic, and historic factors, and their dynamic interactions, to understand climate change drivers, social vulnerability, and mitigation and adaptation responses. They also highlight the importance of mixed quantitative and qualitative methods to explain impacts, vulnerability, and responses at different time and spatial scales. This presentation will focus on major contributions of the social sciences to climate and global change research. We will discuss future directions for

  14. Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater supplies to the Doñana wetland, Spain

    Jackson, Christopher R.; Guardiola-Albert, Carolina

    2011-01-01

    Climate change impacts on natural recharge and groundwater-wetland dynamics were investigated for the Almonte-Marismas aquifer, Spain, which supports the internationally important Doñana wetland. Simulations were carried out using outputs from 13 global climate models to assess the impacts of climate change. Reductions in flow from the aquifer to streams and springs flooding the wetland, induced by changes in recharge according to different climate projections, were modelled. The results proj...

  15. Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions

    Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Liverman, D.; Barker, T.; Jotzo, F.; Kammen, D.M.; Leemans, R.; Lenton, T.M.; Munasinghe, M.; Osman-Elasha, B.; Schellnhuber, H.J.; Stern, N.; Vogel, C.; Waever, O.

    2011-01-01

    Providing an up-to-date synthesis of knowledge relevant to the climate change issue, this book ranges from the basic science documenting the need for policy action to the technologies, economic instruments and political strategies that can be employed in response to climate change. Ethical and

  16. Global Climate Change: National Security Implications

    Pumphrey, Carolyn

    2008-01-01

    .... But this notion was generally scoffed at. Over the course of the 20th century, the scientific community gradually came to terms with this theory and began to regard climate change even rapid climate change as more than a distant possibility...

  17. Global and Regional Impacts of the Clean Development Mechanism

    Wang, Shunli; De Groot, H.L.F.; Nijkamp, P.; Verhoef, E.T. [VU University, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2009-05-15

    Climate change is a serious concern worldwide. Policy research on climate change in the past decades has largely focused on applied modelling exercises. However, the implications of specific policy strategies such as the clean development mechanism (CDM) for global and regional economic and environmental developments has received relatively little attention. This is partly caused by the complexities of modelling an instrument like CDM. By using and modifying the GTAP-E modelling system (GTAP stands for Global Trade Analysis Project), this paper sets out to trace the combined economic and environmental impacts of CDM policies. Particular emphasis is placed on technology transfer induced by alternative CDM policies. Specific attention is devoted to the possible negative consequences of non-participation of the USA in the global coalition, and the associated distributional impacts world-wide.

  18. Global and Regional Impacts of the Clean Development Mechanism

    Wang, Shunli; De Groot, H.L.F.; Nijkamp, P.; Verhoef, E.T.

    2009-05-01

    Climate change is a serious concern worldwide. Policy research on climate change in the past decades has largely focused on applied modelling exercises. However, the implications of specific policy strategies such as the clean development mechanism (CDM) for global and regional economic and environmental developments has received relatively little attention. This is partly caused by the complexities of modelling an instrument like CDM. By using and modifying the GTAP-E modelling system (GTAP stands for Global Trade Analysis Project), this paper sets out to trace the combined economic and environmental impacts of CDM policies. Particular emphasis is placed on technology transfer induced by alternative CDM policies. Specific attention is devoted to the possible negative consequences of non-participation of the USA in the global coalition, and the associated distributional impacts world-wide.

  19. Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

    Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2012-04-01

    Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

  20. On coupling global biome models with climate models

    Claussen, M.

    1994-01-01

    The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, is coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg. It is found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only between the initial biome distribution and the biome distribution computed after the first simulation period, provided that the climate-biome model is started from a biome distribution that resembles the present-day distribution. After the first simulation period, there is no significant shrinking, expanding, or shifting of biomes. Likewise, no trend is seen in global averages of land-surface parameters and climate variables. (orig.)

  1. Global Climate Change, Food Security, and Local Sustainability: Increasing Climate Literacy in Urban Students

    Boger, R. A.; Low, R.; Gorokhovich, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Three higher education institutions, University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), Brooklyn College, and Lehman College, are working together to share expertise and resources to expand climate change topics offered to undergraduate and graduate students in New York City (NYC). This collaboration combines existing UNL educational learning resources and infrastructure in virtual coursework. It will supply global climate change education and locally-based research experiences to the highly diverse undergraduate students of Brooklyn and Lehman Colleges and to middle and high school teachers in NYC. Through the university partnership, UNL materials are being adapted and augmented to include authentic research experiences for undergraduates and teachers using NASA satellite data, geographic information system (GIS) tools, and/or locally collected microclimate data from urban gardens. Learners download NASA data, apply an Earth system approach, and employ GIS in the analysis of food production landscapes in a dynamically changing climate system. The resulting course will be offered via Blackboard courseware, supported by Web 2.0 technologies designed specifically to support dialogue, data, and web publication sharing between partners, teachers and middle school, high school and undergraduate student researchers. NYC is in the center of the urban farming movement. By exploring water and food topics of direct relevance to students' lives and community, we anticipate that students will be motivated and more empowered to make connections between climate change and potential impacts on the health and happiness of people in their community, in the United States and around the world. Final course will be piloted in 2012.

  2. Myths and realities of global climate change

    Bruce, J.P.

    1991-01-01

    Greenhouse gases in the environment are increasing, resulting in global warming. This paper discusses three misconceptions about global warming. The three topics are the level of consensus among world scientists about global warming, how 'costly' remedies for global warming will be, and will growth in developing countries offset any changes made in developed countries. Possibilities for Canadian leadership on this critical issue are discussed. 1 fig.

  3. Modeling Impacts of Climate Change on Giant Panda Habitat

    Melissa Songer

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca are one of the most widely recognized endangered species globally. Habitat loss and fragmentation are the main threats, and climate change could significantly impact giant panda survival. We integrated giant panda habitat information with general climate models (GCMs to predict future geographic distribution and fragmentation of giant panda habitat. Results support a major general prediction of climate change—a shift of habitats towards higher elevation and higher latitudes. Our models predict climate change could reduce giant panda habitat by nearly 60% over 70 years. New areas may become suitable outside the current geographic range but much of these areas is far from the current giant panda range and only 15% fall within the current protected area system. Long-term survival of giant pandas will require the creation of new protected areas that are likely to support suitable habitat even if the climate changes.

  4. Ideas from the global climate change hotspot research | IDRC ...

    2017-05-09

    May 9, 2017 ... Ideas from the global climate change hotspot research ... The Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) ... the decisions they need to make about investment choices and development options, ...

  5. Estonia in the system of global climate change. Publication 4/1996

    Punning, J.M.

    1996-01-01

    Estonia is among the countries who signed the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) at the UN Conference in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992. The FCCC calls on its parties to inventory national sources, to reduction in greenhouse gases and to development of projects responding to climate change. In 1994, an Estonian Country Study Project was initiated within the U.S. Country Studies Program. The Estonian Country Study Project is comprehensive, covering all sectors and directions of activity in Estonia that might impact climate change or be influenced by Global Climate Change. This book contains a collection of papers, covering the aims of the Estonian Country Study Project

  6. Response of the mean global vegetation distribution to interannual climate variability

    Notaro, Michael [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research, Madison, WI (United States)

    2008-06-15

    The impact of interannual variability in temperature and precipitation on global terrestrial ecosystems is investigated using a dynamic global vegetation model driven by gridded climate observations for the twentieth century. Contrasting simulations are driven either by repeated mean climatology or raw climate data with interannual variability included. Interannual climate variability reduces net global vegetation cover, particularly over semi-arid regions, and favors the expansion of grass cover at the expense of tree cover, due to differences in growth rates, fire impacts, and interception. The area burnt by global fires is substantially enhanced by interannual precipitation variability. The current position of the central United States' ecotone, with forests to the east and grasslands to the west, is largely attributed to climate variability. Among woody vegetation, climate variability supports expanded deciduous forest growth and diminished evergreen forest growth, due to difference in bioclimatic limits, leaf longevity, interception rates, and rooting depth. These results offer insight into future ecosystem distributions since climate models generally predict an increase in climate variability and extremes. (orig.)

  7. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON EU AGRICULTURE

    Shailesh Shrestha

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The current paper investigates the medium term economic impact of climate changes on the EU agriculture. The yield change data under climate change scenarios are taken from the BIOMA (Biophysical Models Application simulation environment. We employ CAPRI modelling framework to identify the EU aggregate economic effects as well as regional impacts. We take into account supply and market price adjustments of the EU agricultural sector as well as technical adaptation of crops to climate change. Overall results indicate an increase in yields and production level in the EU agricultural sector due to the climate change. In general, there are relatively small effects at the EU aggregate. For example, the value of land use and welfare change by approximately between -2% and 0.2%. However, there is a stronger impact at regional level with some stronger effects prevailing particularly in the Central and Northern EU and smaller impacts are observed in Southern Europe. Regional impacts of climate change vary by a factor higher up to 10 relative to the aggregate EU impacts. The price adjustments reduce the response of agricultural sector to climate change in particular with respect to production and income changes. The technical adaption of crops to climate change may result in a change production and land use by a factor between 1.4 and 6 relative to no-adaptation situation.

  8. Distributional Aspects of Climate Change Impacts

    Tol, R.S.J. Tol; Kuik, O.J.; Downing, T.; Smith, J.B.

    2003-01-01

    This paper gives a brief review about the state of knowledge on the distributional aspects of climate change impacts. The paper is largely limited to the distribution of impacts between countries (in Section 2). Although there are virtually no estimates reported in the literature, the distribution of impacts within countries is also important. Impact estimates for different sectors (agriculture, health, sea level rise) provides little guidance for estimating differential impacts within countries. It is even harder to find estimates based on social classes. The paper restricts itself to equity about the consequences of climate change. Equity issues about the consequences of emission reduction are ignored here, but should of course be part of a policy analysis. Equity issues about procedures for decision making are also ignored. The paper is organised as follows. Section 2 reviews recent estimates of the regional impacts of climate change. Section 3 discusses alternative ways of aggregating regional impact estimates. Section 4 focusses on the vulnerability of the poor to climate change impacts, both with respect to exposure as well as to their limited capacity for adaptation. Section 5 discusses the impacts of economic development and other dynamic changes on vulnerability. The paper abstains from a discussion of aggregating climate change impacts over time, partly because the literature on that is too substantial to be reviewed here, and partly because, under virtually all scenarios, the current generation is the poorest and therefore particularly worthy in equity considerations. In Section 6 we present salient conclusions

  9. Multisectoral Climate Impact Hotspots in a Warming World

    Piontek, Franziska; Mueller, Christoph; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Clark, Douglas B.; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; deJesusColonGonzalez, Felipe; Floerke, Martina; Folberth, Christian; Franssen, Wietse; hide

    2014-01-01

    The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 degC above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 degC. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty.

  10. Global imprint of climate change on marine life

    Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Sydeman, William J.

    2013-01-01

    Past meta-analyses of the response of marine organisms to climate change have examined a limited range of locations1,2, taxonomic groups2–4 and/or biological responses5,6. This has precluded a robust overview of the effect of climate change in the global ocean. Here, we synthesized all available ...

  11. Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change.

    Jay R. Malcolm; Adam Markham; Ronald P. Neilson; Michael. Oaraci

    2002-01-01

    Greefihouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 doubled climatic forcing.

  12. Climate change at global and regional scale

    Dufresne, J.L.; Royer, J.F.

    2008-01-01

    In support of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that should appear in early 2007, modelling groups world-wide have performed a huge coordinated exercise of climate change runs for the 20. and 21. century. In this paper we present the results of the two french climate models, from CNRM and IPSL. In particular we emphasize the progress made since the previous IPCC report and we identify which results are comparable among models and which strongly differ. (authors)

  13. Extended impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing

    Thomas, Felicity; Sabel, Clive E.; Morton, Katherine; Hiscock, Rosemary; Depledge, Michael H.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Incorporates wellbeing into understandings of climate change impacts on health. • Considers a range of secondary impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing. • Examines co-benefits and dis-benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies for health and wellbeing. • Emphasises the spatially and socially differentiated repercussions of adaptation and mitigation measures. - Abstract: Anthropogenic climate change is progressively transforming the environment despite political and technological attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to tackle global warming. Here we propose that greater insight and understanding of the health-related impacts of climate change can be gained by integrating the positivist approaches used in public health and epidemiology, with holistic social science perspectives on health in which the concept of ‘wellbeing’ is more explicitly recognised. Such an approach enables us to acknowledge and explore a wide range of more subtle, yet important health-related outcomes of climate change. At the same time, incorporating notions of wellbeing enables recognition of both the health co-benefits and dis-benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies across different population groups and geographical contexts. The paper recommends that future adaptation and mitigation policies seek to ensure that benefits are available for all since current evidence suggests that they are spatially and socially differentiated, and their accessibility is dependent on a range of contextually specific socio-cultural factors

  14. Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources

    Fred Fokko Hattermann

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of our study is to quantify the impacts of climate change on hydrology in the large river basins in Germany (Rhine, Elbe, Danube, Weser and Ems and thereby giving the range of impact uncertainty created by the most recent regional climate projections. The study shows mainly results for the A1B SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario scenario by comparing the reference period 1981–2010 and the scenario periods 2031–2060 and 2061–2090 and using climate projections of a combination of 4 Global Climate Models (GCMs and 12 Regional Climate Models (RCMs as climate driver. The outcome is compared against impacts driven by a more recent RCP (Representative Emission Pathways scenario by using data of a statistical RCM. The results indicate that more robust conclusions can be drawn for some river basins, especially the Rhine and Danube basins, while diversity of results leads to higher uncertainty in the other river basins. The results also show that hydrology is very sensitive to changes in climate and effects of a general increase in precipitation can even be over-compensated by an increase in evapotranspiration. The decrease of runoff in late summer shown in most results can be an indicator for more pronounced droughts under scenario conditions.

  15. Analysis of potential impacts of climate change on forests of the United States Pacific Northwest

    Gregory Latta; Hailemariam Temesgen; Darius Adams; Tara Barrett

    2010-01-01

    As global climate changes over the next century, forest productivity is expected to change as well. Using PRISM climate and productivity data measured on a grid of 3356 plots, we developed a simultaneous autoregressive model to estimate the impacts of climate change on potential productivity of Pacific Northwest forests of the United States. The model, coupled with...

  16. What about coal? Interactions between climate policies and the global steam coal market until 2030

    Haftendorn, C.; Kemfert, C.; Holz, F.

    2012-01-01

    Because of economic growth and a strong increase in global energy demand the demand for fossil fuels and therefore also greenhouse gas emissions are increasing, although climate policy should lead to the opposite effect. The coal market is of special relevance as coal is available in many countries and often the first choice to meet energy demand. In this paper we assess possible interactions between climate policies and the global steam coal market. Possible market adjustments between demand regions through market effects are investigated with a numerical model of the global steam coal market: the “COALMOD-World” model. This equilibrium model computes future trade flows, infrastructure investments and prices until 2030. We investigate three specific designs of climate policy: a unilateral European climate policy, an Indonesian export-limiting policy and a fast-roll out of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the broader context of climate policy and market constraints. We find that market adjustment effects in the coal market can have significant positive and negative impacts on the effectiveness of climate policies. - Highlights: ► Interactions between climate policy and the global coal market until 2030 modeled. ► Analysis with the numerical model: “COALMOD-World”. ► Unilateral European climate policy partly compensated by market adjustment effects. ► A fast roll-out of CCS can lead to positive market adjustment effects. ► An export restricting supply-side policy generates virtuous market adjustments.

  17. Global Climate Change: Three Policy Perspectives

    Parker, Larry; Blodgett, John

    2008-01-01

    The 1992 U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change requires that signatories, including the United States, establish policies for constraining future emission levels of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2). The George H. W...

  18. Business Leadership in Global Climate Change Responses.

    Esty, Daniel C; Bell, Michelle L

    2018-04-01

    In the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement, 195 countries committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in recognition of the scientific consensus on the consequences of climate change, including substantial public health burdens. In June 2017, however, US president Donald Trump announced that the United States would not implement the Paris Agreement. We highlight the business community's backing for climate change action in the United States. Just as the US federal government is backing away from its Paris commitments, many corporate executives are recognizing the need to address the greenhouse gas emissions of their companies and the business logic of strong environmental, social, and governance practices more generally. We conclude that climate change could emerge as an issue on which the business and public health communities might align and provide leadership.

  19. Global priority conservation areas in the face of 21st century climate change.

    Junsheng Li

    Full Text Available In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the "Global 200" ecoregions - a set of priority ecoregions designed to "achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth's ecosystems" - over the 21(st century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991-2010 and 2081-2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change.

  20. The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture.

    Morton, John F

    2007-12-11

    Some of the most important impacts of global climate change will be felt among the populations, predominantly in developing countries, referred to as "subsistence" or "smallholder" farmers. Their vulnerability to climate change comes both from being predominantly located in the tropics, and from various socioeconomic, demographic, and policy trends limiting their capacity to adapt to change. However, these impacts will be difficult to model or predict because of (i) the lack of standardised definitions of these sorts of farming system, and therefore of standard data above the national level, (ii) intrinsic characteristics of these systems, particularly their complexity, their location-specificity, and their integration of agricultural and nonagricultural livelihood strategies, and (iii) their vulnerability to a range of climate-related and other stressors. Some recent work relevant to these farming systems is reviewed, a conceptual framework for understanding the diverse forms of impacts in an integrated manner is proposed, and future research needs are identified.

  1. Climate change impacts on human exposures to air pollution ...

    This is an abstract for a presentations at the Annual Conference of the International Society on Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology. This presentation will serve as an introduction to the symposium. As we consider the potential health impacts of a warming planet, the relationships between climate change and air pollutants become increasingly important to understand. These relationships are complex and highly variable, causing a variety of environmental impacts at local, regional and global scales. Human exposures and health impacts for air pollutants have the potential to be altered by changes in climate through multiple factors that drive population exposures to these pollutants. Research on this topic will provide both state and local governments with the tools and scientific knowledge base to undertake any necessary adaptation of the air pollution regulations and/or public health management systems in the face of climate change.

  2. Comparison and Evaluation of Global Scale Studies of Vulnerability and Risks to Climate Change

    Muccione, Veruska; Allen, Simon K.; Huggel, Christian; Birkmann, Joern

    2015-04-01

    Understanding the present and future distribution of different climate change impacts and vulnerability to climate change is a central subject in the context of climate justice and international climate policy. Commonly, it is claimed that poor countries that contributed little to anthropogenic climate change are those most affected and most vulnerable to climate change. Such statements are backed by a number of global-scale vulnerability studies, which identified poor countries as most vulnerable. However, some studies have challenged this view, likewise highlighting the high vulnerability of richer countries. Overall, no consensus has been reached so far about which concept of vulnerability should be applied and what type of indicators should be considered. Furthermore, there is little agreement which specific countries are most vulnerable. This is a major concern in view of the need to inform international climate policy, all the more if such assessments should contribute to allocate climate adaptation funds as was invoked at some instances. We argue that next to the analysis of who is most vulnerable, it is also important to better understand and compare different vulnerability profiles assessed in present global studies. We perform a systematic literature review of global vulnerability assessments with the scope to highlight vulnerability distribution patterns. We then compare these distributions with global risk distributions in line with revised and adopted concepts by most recent IPCC reports. It emerges that improved differentiation of key drivers of risk and the understanding of different vulnerability profiles are important contributions, which can inform future adaptation policies at the regional and national level. This can change the perspective on, and basis for distributional issues in view of climate burden share, and therefore can have implications for UNFCCC financing instruments (e.g. Green Climate Fund). However, in order to better compare

  3. Adapting to the impacts of climate change

    America's Climate Choices: Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change; National Research Council

    2010-01-01

    "Across the United States, impacts of climate change are already evident. Heat waves have become more frequent and intense, cold extremes have become less frequent, and patterns of rainfall are likely changing...

  4. Fisheries: climate change impacts and adaptation

    2003-01-01

    The report entitled Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation : A Canadian Perspective, presents a summary of research regarding the impacts of climate change on key sectors over the past five years as it relates to Canada. This chapter on fisheries focuses on the impact of climate change on Canada's marine and freshwater fisheries, and the role of adaptation in reducing the vulnerability of the sector. Canadian fisheries encompass the Atlantic, Pacific and Arctic oceans as well as freshwater systems. Fish health, productivity and distribution is strongly influenced by climatic factors such as air and water temperature, precipitation and wind. Most fish species have a distinct set of environmental conditions for optimal growth and survival. If the conditions change in response to changing climate, the fish may be affected. Some of the impacts include reduced growth, increased competition, a shift in species distribution, greater susceptibility to disease, and altered ecosystem function. Studies show that in some areas, fisheries may already be experiencing the effect of climate change. Recommendations were suggested on how to deal with the impacts associated with climate change in sensitive environments. It was noted that actions taken in the fisheries sector will have implications for the water resources, transportation, tourism and human health sectors. 103 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs

  5. Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios

    Harvey, L.D.D.

    2013-01-01

    This paper develops scenarios whereby CO 2 emissions from the transportation sector are eliminated worldwide by the end of this century. Data concerning the energy intensity and utilization of different passenger and freight transportation modes in 2005, and per capita income, in 10 different socio-economic regions of the world are combined with scenarios of population and per capita GDP to generate scenarios of future transportation energy demand. The impact of various technical options (improvements in the energy intensity of all transportation modes, changes in the proportions of vehicles with different drive trains, and a shift to biomass or hydrogen for the non-electricity energy requirements) and behavioural options (a shift to less energy-intensive LDV market segments, a reduction in total passenger-km of travel per capita, and an increase in the share of less energy-intensive passenger and freight modes of transport) is assessed. To eliminate transportation fossil fuel emissions within this century while limiting the demand for electricity, biofuels or hydrogen to manageable levels requires the simultaneous application of all the technical and behavioural measures considered here, with improvements in vehicle efficiencies and a shift to plug-in hybrid and battery-electric drive trains for light duty vehicles being the most important measures. - Highlights: ► Scenarios are developed whereby transportation CO 2 emissions reach zero by 2100. ► These scenarios address concerns about peak oil and global warming. ► A comprehensive mix of technical and behavioural changes is considered in 10 world regions. ► Efficiency improvements and a shift to plug-in hybrid vehicles are the most important measures

  6. Comment on "Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming" by Beenstock et al. (2012) – some hazards in econometric modelling of climate change

    Pretis, F.; Hendry, D. F.

    2013-01-01

    We outline six important hazards that can be encountered in econometric modelling of time-series data, and apply that analysis to demonstrate errors in the empirical modelling of climate data in Beenstock et al. (2012). We show that the claim made in Beenstock et al. (2012) as to the different degrees of integrability of CO2 and temperature is incorrect. In particular, the level of integration is not constant and not intrinsic to the process. Further, we illustrate that the ...

  7. Communicating global climate change using simple indices: an update

    Drost, Frank; Karoly, David [University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Braganza, Karl [National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2012-08-15

    Previous studies have shown that there are several indices of global-scale temperature variations, in addition to global-mean surface air temperature, that are useful for distinguishing natural internal climate variations from anthropogenic climate change. Appropriately defined, such indices have the ability to capture spatio-temporal information in a similar manner to optimal fingerprints of climate change. These indices include the contrast between the average temperatures over land and over oceans, the Northern Hemisphere meridional temperature gradient, the temperature contrast between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere and the magnitude of the annual cycle of average temperatures over land. They contain information independent of the global-mean temperature for internal climate variations at decadal time scales and represent different aspects of the climate system, yet they show common responses to anthropogenic climate change. In addition, the ratio of average temperature changes over land to those over the oceans should be nearly constant for transient climate change. Hence, supplementing analysis of global-mean surface temperature with analyses of these indices can strengthen results of attribution studies of causes of observed climate variations. In this study, we extend the previous work by including the last 10 years of observational data and the CMIP3 climate model simulations analysed for the IPCC AR4. We show that observed changes in these indices over the last 10 years provide increased evidence of an anthropogenic influence on climate. We also show the usefulness of these indices for evaluating the performance of climate models in simulating large-scale variability of surface temperature. (orig.)

  8. Challenges of coordinating global climate observations - Role of satellites in climate monitoring

    Richter, C.

    2017-12-01

    Global observation of the Earth's atmosphere, ocean and land is essential for identifying climate variability and change, and for understanding their causes. Observation also provides data that are fundamental for evaluating, refining and initializing the models that predict how the climate system will vary over the months and seasons ahead, and that project how climate will change in the longer term under different assumptions concerning greenhouse gas emissions and other human influences. Long-term observational records have enabled the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to deliver the message that warming of the global climate system is unequivocal. As the Earth's climate enters a new era, in which it is forced by human activities, as well as natural processes, it is critically important to sustain an observing system capable of detecting and documenting global climate variability and change over long periods of time. High-quality climate observations are required to assess the present state of the ocean, cryosphere, atmosphere and land and place them in context with the past. The global observing system for climate is not a single, centrally managed observing system. Rather, it is a composite "system of systems" comprising a set of climate-relevant observing, data-management, product-generation and data-distribution systems. Data from satellites underpin many of the Essential Climate Variables(ECVs), and their historic and contemporary archives are a key part of the global climate observing system. In general, the ECVs will be provided in the form of climate data records that are created by processing and archiving time series of satellite and in situ measurements. Early satellite data records are very valuable because they provide unique observations in many regions which were not otherwise observed during the 1970s and which can be assimilated in atmospheric reanalyses and so extend the satellite climate data records back in time.

  9. Modeled impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate

    Findell, K.L.; Shevliakova, E.; Milly, P.C.D.; Stouffer, R.J.

    2007-01-01

    Equilibrium experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are used to investigate the impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate. Regions of altered land cover include large portions of Europe, India, eastern China, and the eastern United States. Smaller areas of change are present in various tropical regions. This study focuses on the impacts of biophysical changes associated with the land cover change (albedo, root and stomatal properties, roughness length), which is almost exclusively a conversion from forest to grassland in the model; the effects of irrigation or other water management practices and the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes associated with land cover conversion are not included in these experiments. The model suggests that observed land cover changes have little or no impact on globally averaged climatic variables (e.g., 2-m air temperature is 0.008 K warmer in a simulation with 1990 land cover compared to a simulation with potential natural vegetation cover). Differences in the annual mean climatic fields analyzed did not exhibit global field significance. Within some of the regions of land cover change, however, there are relatively large changes of many surface climatic variables. These changes are highly significant locally in the annual mean and in most months of the year in eastern Europe and northern India. They can be explained mainly as direct and indirect consequences of model-prescribed increases in surface albedo, decreases in rooting depth, and changes of stomatal control that accompany deforestation. ?? 2007 American Meteorological Society.

  10. UNEP-IOC-ASPEI global task team on the implications of climate change on coral reefs

    1992-01-01

    The first meeting of the Global Task Team on the Implications of Climate Change on Coral Reefs was held to develop an authoritative scientific and technical review of the implications of climate change for coral reefs and their ecologically sustainable use. The Task Team is expected to provide expert advice and guidance in the implementation of the pilot activity on coral reef monitoring as part of the UNEP-IOC-WMO Long-Term Global Monitoring System of coastal and near-shore phenomena related to climate change. This would ensure coordination of various activities aimed at assessing the scale of impacts on natural environments and socio-economic systems particularly in the case of low-lying islands and other areas vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise. The work of the Task Team should ultimately assist the Governments concerned in mitigating the impacts of such changes.

  11. Ozone, Climate, and Global Atmospheric Change.

    Levine, Joel S.

    1992-01-01

    Presents an overview of global atmospheric problems relating to ozone depletion and global warming. Provides background information on the composition of the earth's atmosphere and origin of atmospheric ozone. Describes causes, effects, and evidence of ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect. A vignette provides a summary of a 1991 assessment of…

  12. Life on a warmer earth: possible climatic consequences of man-made global warming. [Monograph

    1981-01-01

    A summary of research conducted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and published by H. Flohn in 1977 updates the original data to March 1980. The work explores the interaction between energy and climate, including the impact on the global climate of three main energy sources: solar, nuclear, and fossil fuels. Its findings describe the global warming effects caused by carbon dioxide released by burning fossil fuels and by other trace gases released into the atmosphere. The approach is paleoclimatic in that it gains insights into what global warming will produce by considering what is known about past periods of the earth's history when the global average surface temperature was higher than it is now. Although paleoclimatic knowledge is limited, no complete model of the climatic system is available. This research uses both approaches, combining the two to some extent. 10 figures.