WorldWideScience

Sample records for global change processes

  1. The Change of Cluster Specialization through the Process of Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Poul Rind; Ingstrup, Mads Bruun

    2013-01-01

    This contribution explores the dynamics of specialization in clusters as a result of how globalization influences the organization of production activities......This contribution explores the dynamics of specialization in clusters as a result of how globalization influences the organization of production activities...

  2. Global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levine, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Present processes of global climate change are reviewed. The processes determining global temperature are briefly described and the concept of effective temperature is elucidated. The greenhouse effect is examined, including the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. 18 refs

  3. Providing Context for Complexity: Using Infographics and Conceptual Models to Teach Global Change Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, J. R.; White, L. D.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding modern and historical global changes requires interdisciplinary knowledge of the physical and life sciences. The Understanding Global Change website from the UC Museum of Paleontology will use a focal infographic that unifies diverse content often taught in separate K-12 science units. This visualization tool provides scientists with a structure for presenting research within the broad context of global change, and supports educators with a framework for teaching and assessing student understanding of complex global change processes. This new approach to teaching the science of global change is currently being piloted and refined based on feedback from educators and scientists in anticipation of a 2016 website launch. Global change concepts are categorized within the infographic as causes of global change (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, volcanism), ongoing Earth system processes (e.g., ocean circulation, the greenhouse effect), and the changes scientists measure in Earth's physical and biological systems (e.g., temperature, extinctions/radiations). The infographic will appear on all website content pages and provides a template for the creation of flowcharts, which are conceptual models that allow teachers and students to visualize the interdependencies and feedbacks among processes in the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and geosphere. The development of this resource is timely given that the newly adopted Next Generation Science Standards emphasize cross-cutting concepts, including model building, and Earth system science. Flowchart activities will be available on the website to scaffold inquiry-based lessons, determine student preconceptions, and assess student content knowledge. The infographic has already served as a learning and evaluation tool during professional development workshops at UC Berkeley, Stanford University, and the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History. At these workshops, scientists and educators used the infographic

  4. Modeling and Analysis of Global and Regional Climate Change in Relation to Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Donald R.

    2001-01-01

    This research was directed to the development and application of global isentropic modeling and analysis capabilities to describe hydrologic processes and energy exchange in the climate system, and discern regional climate change. An additional objective was to investigate the accuracy and theoretical limits of global climate predictability which are imposed by the inherent limitations of simulating trace constituent transport and the hydrologic processes of condensation, precipitation and cloud life cycles.

  5. Re-engineering of Products and Processes How to Achieve Global Success in the Changing Marketplace

    CERN Document Server

    Rotini, Federico; Cascini, Gaetano

    2012-01-01

    Whilst previous methods for business process re-engineering have focused on time and cost reduction policies to preserve competitive services and products, Re-engineering of Products and Processes: How to Achieve Global Success in the Changing Marketplace presents a new approach which aims to include aspects that impact the customer perceived value. This method supports business re-engineering initiatives by identifying process bottlenecks as well as new products and services available to overcome market competition. This original approach is described step-by-step, explaining the theory through examples of performable tasks and the selection of relevant tools according to the nature of the problem. Supported by illustrations, tables and diagrams, Re-engineering of Products and Processes: How to Achieve Global Success in the Changing Marketplace clearly explains a method which is then applied to several case studies across different industrial sectors. Re-engineering of Products and Processes: How to Achieve...

  6. Constructing Consistent Multiscale Scenarios by Transdisciplinary Processes: the Case of Mountain Regions Facing Global Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fridolin Simon. Brand

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Alpine regions in Europe, in particular, face demanding local challenges, e.g., the decline in the agriculture and timber industries, and are also prone to global changes, such as in climate, with potentially severe impacts on tourism. We focus on the Visp region in the Upper Valais, Switzerland, and ask how the process of stakeholder involvement in research practice can contribute to a better understanding of the specific challenges and future development of mountainous regions under global change. Based on a coupled human-environment system (HES perspective, we carried out a formative scenario analysis to develop a set of scenarios for the future directions of the Visp region. In addition, we linked these regional scenarios to context scenarios developed at the global and Swiss levels via an external consistency analysis. This method allows the coupling of both the scenario building process and the scenarios as such. We used a functional-dynamic approach to theory-practice cooperation, i.e., the involvement of key stakeholders from, for example, tourism, forestry, and administration, differed in type and intensity during the steps of the research process. In our study, we experienced strong problem awareness among the stakeholders concerning the impacts of global change and local challenges. The guiding research question was commonly defined and problem ownership was more or less balanced. We arrived at six multiscale scenarios that open up future trajectories for the Visp region, and present generic strategies to cope with global and local challenges. The results show that local identity, spatial planning, community budget, and demographic development are important steering elements in the region's future development. We suggest that method-guided transdisciplinary processes result in a richer picture and a more systemic understanding, which enable a discussion of critical and surprising issues.

  7. Soil Response to Global Change: Soil Process Domains and Pedogenic Thresholds (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadwick, O.; Kramer, M. G.; Chorover, J.

    2013-12-01

    The capacity of soil to withstand perturbations, whether driven by climate, land use change, or spread of invasive species, depends on its chemical composition and physical state. The dynamic interplay between stable, well buffered soil process domains and thresholds in soil state and function is a strong determinant of soil response to forcing from global change. In terrestrial ecosystems, edaphic responses are often mediated by availability of water and its flux into and through soils. Water influences soil processes in several ways: it supports biological production, hence proton-donor, electron-donor and complexing-ligand production; it determines the advective removal of dissolution products, and it can promote anoxia that leads microorganisms to utilize alternative electron acceptors. As a consequence climate patterns strongly influence global distribution of soil, although within region variability is governed by other factors such as landscape age, parent material and human land use. By contrast, soil properties can vary greatly among climate regions, variation which is guided by the functioning of a suite of chemical processes that tend to maintain chemical status quo. This soil 'buffering' involves acid-base reactions as minerals weather and oxidation-reduction reactions that are driven by microbial respiration. At the planetary scale, soil pH provides a reasonable indicator of process domains and varies from about 3.5 to10, globally, although most soils lie between about 4.5 and 8.5. Those that are above 7.5 are strongly buffered by the carbonate system, those that are characterized by neutral pH (7.5-6) are buffered by release of non-hydrolyzing cations from primary minerals and colloid surfaces, and those that are buffered by hydrolytic aluminum on colloidal surfaces. Alkali and alkaline (with the exception of limestone parent material) soils are usually associated with arid and semiarid conditions, neutral pH soils with young soils in both dry and wet

  8. Globalization and Paradigm Changes in Teacher Education: Revolutionizing Teaching Learning Process at School Level in Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iqbal, Muhammad; Arif, Muhammad Irfan

    2011-01-01

    The world has become a global village. No county can live in isolation without seeking impact of global trends and a change in all field of life education is the most important tool in national development. So this age of knowledge has great impact on education. Teacher education is the brain of all educational disciplines as it delivers education…

  9. Data Synthesis and Data Assimilation at Global Change Experiments and Fluxnet Toward Improving Land Process Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo, Yiqi [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States). Dept. of Microbiology and Plant Biology

    2017-09-12

    The project was conducted during the period from 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2017 with three major tasks: (1) data synthesis and development of data assimilation (DA) techniques to constrain modeled ecosystem feedback to climate change; (2) applications of DA techniques to improve process models at different scales from ecosystem to regions and the globe; and 3) improvements of modeling soil carbon (C) dynamics by land surface models. During this period, we have synthesized published data from soil incubation experiments (e.g., Chen et al., 2016; Xu et al., 2016; Feng et al., 2016), global change experiments (e.g., Li et al., 2013; Shi et al., 2015, 2016; Liang et al., 2016) and fluxnet (e.g., Niu et al., 2012., Xia et al., 2015; Li et al., 2016). These data have been organized into multiple data products and have been used to identify general mechanisms and estimate parameters for model improvement. We used the data sets that we collected and the DA techniques to improve model performance of both ecosystem models and global land models. The objectives are: 1) to improve model simulations of litter and soil carbon storage (e.g., Schädel et al., 2013; Hararuk and Luo, 2014; Hararuk et al., 2014; Liang et al., 2015); 2) to explore the effects of CO2, warming and precipitation on ecosystem processes (e.g., van Groenigen et al., 2014; Shi et al., 2015, 2016; Feng et al., 2017); and 3) to estimate parameters variability in different ecosystems (e.g., Li et al., 2016). We developed a traceability framework, which was based on matrix approaches and decomposed the modeled steady-state terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage capacity into four can trace the difference in ecosystem carbon storage capacity among different biomes to four traceable components: net primary productivity (NPP), baseline C residence times, environmental scalars and climate forcing (Xia et al., 2013). With this framework, we can diagnose the differences in modeled carbon storage across ecosystems

  10. Global Processing Speed as a Mediator of Developmental Changes in Children's Auditory Memory Span

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, A.N.; Bowey, J.A.

    2005-01-01

    This study examined the role of global processing speed in mediating age increases in auditory memory span in 5- to 13-year-olds. Children were tested on measures of memory span, processing speed, single-word speech rate, phonological sensitivity, and vocabulary. Structural equation modeling supported a model in which age-associated increases in…

  11. Forest Soil Bacteria: Diversity, Involvement in Ecosystem Processes, and Response to Global Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lladó, Salvador; López-Mondéjar, Rubén; Baldrian, Petr

    2017-06-01

    The ecology of forest soils is an important field of research due to the role of forests as carbon sinks. Consequently, a significant amount of information has been accumulated concerning their ecology, especially for temperate and boreal forests. Although most studies have focused on fungi, forest soil bacteria also play important roles in this environment. In forest soils, bacteria inhabit multiple habitats with specific properties, including bulk soil, rhizosphere, litter, and deadwood habitats, where their communities are shaped by nutrient availability and biotic interactions. Bacteria contribute to a range of essential soil processes involved in the cycling of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus. They take part in the decomposition of dead plant biomass and are highly important for the decomposition of dead fungal mycelia. In rhizospheres of forest trees, bacteria interact with plant roots and mycorrhizal fungi as commensalists or mycorrhiza helpers. Bacteria also mediate multiple critical steps in the nitrogen cycle, including N fixation. Bacterial communities in forest soils respond to the effects of global change, such as climate warming, increased levels of carbon dioxide, or anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. This response, however, often reflects the specificities of each studied forest ecosystem, and it is still impossible to fully incorporate bacteria into predictive models. The understanding of bacterial ecology in forest soils has advanced dramatically in recent years, but it is still incomplete. The exact extent of the contribution of bacteria to forest ecosystem processes will be recognized only in the future, when the activities of all soil community members are studied simultaneously. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

  12. Changing global carbon cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Canadell, Pep

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (C02) is the single largest human perturbation on the earth's radiative balance contributing to climate change. Its rate of change reflects the balance between anthropogenic carbon emissions and the dynamics of a number of terrestrial and ocean processes that remove or emit C02. It is the long term evolution of this balance that will determine to large extent the speed and magnitude of the human induced climate change and the mitigation requirements to stabilise atmospheric C02 concentrations at any given level. In this talk, we show new trends in global carbon sources and sinks, with particularly focus on major shifts occurring since 2000 when the growth rate of atmospheric C02 has reached its highest level on record. The acceleration in the C02 growth results from the combination of several changes in properties of the carbon cycle, including: acceleration of anthropogenic carbon emissions; increased carbon intensity of the global economy, and decreased efficiency of natural carbon sinks. We discuss in more detail some of the possible causes of the reduced efficiency of natural carbon sinks on land and oceans, such as the decreased net sink in the Southern Ocean and on terrestrial mid-latitudes due to world-wide occurrence of drought. All these changes reported here characterise a carbon cycle that is generating stronger than expected climate forcing, and sooner than expected

  13. Changes in residential, occupational and gender structure of the greater Bangkok in the globalization process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoshi Nakagawa

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated recent changes in migration and population structure of the GreaterBangkok considering the impact of economic globalization. The spatial policy of the Thaigovernment has lead newer investments for manufacturing to locate away from BangkokMetropolis and thereby the industrial structure of Bangkok Metropolis has gradually turnedinto service-dominated, while the region surrounding Bangkok Metropolis has attractedfactories mainly owned by foreign capital. Light industry and electronics industry are concentratedin the adjacent provinces to Bangkok Metropolis and the heavy and petrochemicalindustry tends to be located in the outer zone of the surrounding region. The service sectorand light industry as well as electronics industry prefer female workers and Bangkok metropolisand the adjoining provinces have become female-dominated population structurewhile male workers tend to gather in the outer zone attracted by heavy and petrochemicalindustry. It is possible to mention accordingly that the unbalanced spatial distribution of sexstructure of population which might cause changes in the norm to the family formation infuture is one of the consequences of economic globalization of Thailand, which the investmentpromotion policy of the government did not assume.

  14. Changes in residential, occupational and gender structure of the greater Bangkok in the globalization process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoshi Nakagawa

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated recent changes in migration and population structure of the Greater Bangkok considering the impact of economic globalization. The spatial policy of the Thai government has lead newer investments for manufacturing to locate away from Bangkok Metropolis and thereby the industrial structure of Bangkok Metropolis has gradually turned into service-dominated, while the region surrounding Bangkok Metropolis has attracted factories mainly owned by foreign capital. Light industry and electronics industry are con-centrated in the adjacent provinces to Bangkok Metropolis and the heavy and petrochemical industry tends to be located in the outer zone of the surrounding region. The service sector and light industry as well as electronics industry prefer female workers and Bangkok met-ropolis and the adjoining provinces have become female-dominated population structure while male workers tend to gather in the outer zone attracted by heavy and petrochemical industry. It is possible to mention accordingly that the unbalanced spatial distribution of sex structure of population which might cause changes in the norm to the family formation in future is one of the consequences of economic globalization of Thailand, which the inves-tment promotion policy of the government did not assume.

  15. Biodiversity and global change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Solbrig, Otto Thomas; Emden, H. M. van; Oordt, P. G. W. J. van; Solbrig, Otto T

    1992-01-01

    The IUBS symposium "Biodiversity and Global Change" held during the 24th General Assembly, 1-6 September, 1991, in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, represented the first attempt to address the issue of bio...

  16. Climate and Global Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duplessy, J.C.; Pons, A.; Fantechi, R.

    1991-01-01

    The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)

  17. Analysis of changing bank services in globalization process of financial business

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.Mumi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The process of economic development of every country is closely connected with the functioning of effective infrastructure of financial market, in the carter of which is a bank system. The success of market relations, the provision of intensive economic growth, the increasing country’s competitiveness at the world market and the growth of population well-being are determined by the fact of how much effectively banks are able to act at different segments of bank services. The innovations in the bank field are closely connected with the innovations in the global and world financial sector. The issues about the influence of globalization on bank activities, the development of market of bank services, empirical researches are of great interest nowadays. Special attention is paid to the Ukrainian market of bank services. The analysis of the current state of the bank sector of the Ukrainian economy gives an opportunity to disclose some problems in the bank sphere as: political and financial instability in the country, the low quality of bank assets, the decrease of liquidity of bank assets, the low credit to the bank system among population, unstable legal framework in the state, the high level of vulnerability of the bank system to the country’s currency policy conducted by NBU.

  18. Technology and Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grübler, Arnulf

    2003-10-01

    Technology and Global Change describes how technology has shaped society and the environment over the last 200 years. Technology has led us from the farm to the factory to the internet, and its impacts are now global. Technology has eliminated many problems, but has added many others (ranging from urban smog to the ozone hole to global warming). This book is the first to give a comprehensive description of the causes and impacts of technological change and how they relate to global environmental change. Written for specialists and nonspecialists alike, it will be useful for researchers and professors, as a textbook for graduate students, for people engaged in long-term policy planning in industry (strategic planning departments) and government (R & D and technology ministries, environment ministries), for environmental activists (NGOs), and for the wider public interested in history, technology, or environmental issues.

  19. Assessment of global morphological and topological changes in trabecular structure under the bone resorption process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidorenko, Irina N.; Bauer, Jan; Monetti, Roberto; Baum, Thomas; Rummeny, Ernst J.; Eckstein, Felix; Matsuura, Maiko; Lochmueller, Eva-Maria; Zysset, Philippe K.; Raeth, Christoph W.

    2012-03-01

    Osteoporosis is a frequent skeletal disease characterised both by loss of bone mineral mass and deterioration of cancellous bone micro-architecture. It can be caused by mechanical disuse, estrogen deficiency or natural age-related resorption process. Numerical analysis of high-resolution images of the trabecular network is recognised as a powerful tool for assessment of structural characteristics. Using μCT images of 73 thoracic and 78 lumbar human vertebral specimens in vitro with isotropic resolution of 26μm we simulate bone atrophy as random resorption of bone surface voxels. Global morphological and topological characteristics provided by four Minkowski Functionals (MF) are calculated for two numerical resorption models with and without conservation of global topological connectivity of the trabecular network, which simulates different types of bone loss in osteoporosis, as it has been described in males and females. Diagnostic performance of morphological and topological characteristics as a function of relative bone loss is evaluated by a correlation analysis with respect to experimentally measured Maximum Compressive Strength (MCS). In both resorption models the second MF, which coincides with bone surface fraction BS/TV, demonstrates almost constant value of Pearson's correlation coefficient with respect to the relative bone loss ▵BV/TV. This morphological characteristic does not vary considerably under age-related random resorption and can be used for predicting bone strength in the elderly. The third and fourth MF demonstrate an increasing correlation coefficients with MCS after applying random bone surface thinning without preserving topological connectivity, what can be used for improvement of evaluation of the current state of the structure.

  20. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciconkov, Risto

    2001-01-01

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  1. Amazonia and Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Michael; Bustamante, Mercedes; Gash, John; Silva Dias, Pedro

    Amazonia and Global Change synthesizes results of the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) for scientists and students of Earth system science and global environmental change. LBA, led by Brazil, asks how Amazonia currently functions in the global climate and biogeochemical systems and how the functioning of Amazonia will respond to the combined pressures of climate and land use change, such as • Wet season and dry season aerosol concentrations and their effects on diffuse radiation and photosynthesis • Increasing greenhouse gas concentration, deforestation, widespread biomass burning and changes in the Amazonian water cycle • Drought effects and simulated drought through rainfall exclusion experiments • The net flux of carbon between Amazonia and the atmosphere • Floodplains as an important regulator of the basin carbon balance including serving as a major source of methane to the troposphere • The impact of the likely increased profitability of cattle ranching. The book will serve a broad community of scientists and policy makers interested in global change and environmental issues with high-quality scientific syntheses accessible to nonspecialists in a wide community of social scientists, ecologists, atmospheric chemists, climatologists, and hydrologists.

  2. The northern global change research program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard A. Birdsey; John L. Hom; Marla Emery

    1996-01-01

    The Forest Service goal for global change research is to establish a sound scientific basis for making regional, national, and international resource management and policy decisions in the context of global change issues. The objectives of the Northern Global Change Program (NGCP) are to understand: (1) what processes in forest ecosystems are sensitive to physical and...

  3. Physiological differences and changes in global DNA methylation levels in Agave angustifolia Haw. albino variant somaclones during the micropropagation process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte-Aké, Fátima; Castillo-Castro, Eduardo; Pool, Felipe Barredo; Espadas, Francisco; Santamaría, Jorge M; Robert, Manuel L; De-la-Peña, Clelia

    2016-12-01

    Global DNA methylation changes caused by in vitro conditions are associated with the subculturing and phenotypic variation in Agave angustifolia Haw. While the relationship between the development of albinism and in vitro culture is well documented, the role of epigenetic processes in this development leaves some important questions unanswered. During the micropropagation of Agave angustifolia Haw., we found three different phenotypes, green (G), variegated (V) and albino (A). To understand the physiological and epigenetic differences among the somaclones, we analyzed several morphophysiological parameters and changes in the DNA methylation patterns in the three phenotypes during their in vitro development. We found that under in vitro conditions, the V plantlets maintained their CAM photosynthetic capacity, while the A variant showed no pigments and lost its CAM photosynthetic ability. Epigenetic analysis revealed that global DNA methylation increased in the G phenotype during the first two subcultures. However, after that time, DNA methylation levels declined. This hypomethylation correlated with the appearance of V shoots in the G plantlets. A similar correlation occurred in the V phenotype, where an increase of 2 % in the global DNA methylation levels was correlated with the generation of A shoots in the V plantlets. This suggests that an "epigenetic stress memory" during in vitro conditions causes a chromatin shift that favors the generation of variegated and albino shoots.

  4. Global vs climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, H.L.; Bach, M.C.; Goklany, I.M.

    1991-01-01

    The various agents of global change that will affect the state of natural resources 50-100 years from now are discussed. These include economic and population growth, technological progress, and climatic change. The importance of climatic change lies in its effects on natural resources and on human activities that depend on those resources. Other factors affecting those resources include the demand on those resources from an increasing population and from a growing economy, and a more efficient use of those resources that comes from technological changes and from the consequences of economic growth itself. It is shown that there is a considerable ability to adapt to climatic change, since humans already have an intrinsic ability to adapt to the wide variations in climates that already exist and since technological developments can make it easier to cope with climatic variability. It appears that agents other than climatic change are more significant to the future state of natural resources than climatic change. Criteria for selecting options for addressing climatic change are outlined. Technological change and economic growth are seen to be key response options, since the vulnerability to climatic change depends on economic resources and technological progress. Specific options to stimulate sustainable economic growth and technological progress are listed. 16 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  5. Fires, invasives, migrations, oh my! Scaling spatial processes into earth system models and global change projections. (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietze, M.

    2013-12-01

    Spatial processes often drive ecosystem processes, biogeochemical cycles, and land-atmosphere feedbacks at the landscape-scale. Long-term responses of ecosystems to climate change requires dispersal and species migrations. Climate-sensitive disturbances, such as fire, pests, and pathogens, often spread contagiously across the landscape. Land-use change has created a highly fragmented landscape with a large fraction of 'edge' habitat that alters the surface energy dynamics and microclimate. These factors all interact, with fragmentation creating barriers for fire and migrations while creating corridors for rapid invasion. While the climate-change implications of these factors are often discussed, none of these processes are incorporated into earth system models because they occur at a spatial scale well below model resolution. Here we present a novel second-order spatially-implicit scheme for representing the spatial adjacencies of different vegetation types and edaphic classes. Adjacencies direct affect dispersal, contagious disturbance, radiation, and microclimate. We also demonstrate a means for approximating the size distribution of spatially contagious disturbances, such as fire, insects, and disease. Finally, we demonstrate a means for dynamically evolving spatial adjacency through time in response to disturbance and succession. This scheme is tested under a range of dispersal, disturbance, and land-use scenarios in comparison to a spatially explicit and conventional non-spatial alternatives. This scheme lays the ground for a more realistic global-scale exploration of how spatially-complex and heterogenous landscapes interact with climate-change drivers.

  6. Combined global change effects on ecosystem processes in nine U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melannie D. Hartman; Jill S. Baron; Holly A. Ewing; Kathleen C. Weathers; Chelcy Miniat

    2014-01-01

    Concurrent changes in climate, atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, and increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) affect ecosystems in complex ways. The DayCent-Chem model was used to investigate the combined effects of these human-caused drivers of change over the period 1980–2075 at seven forested montane and two alpine watersheds...

  7. Forest processes and global environmental change: predicting the effects of individual and multiple stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    John Aber; Ronald P. Neilson; Steve McNulty; James M. Lenihan; Dominque Bachelet; Raymond J. Drapek

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to review the state of prediction of forest ecosystem response to envisioned changes in the physical and chemical climate. These results are offered as one part of the forest sector analysis of the National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. This article has three sections. The first offers a very...

  8. Potential global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    Global economic integration and growth contribute much to the construction of energy plants, vehicles and other industrial products that produces carbon emission and in effect cause the destruction of the environment. A coordinated policy and response worldwide to curb emissions and to effect global climate change must be introduced. Improvement in scientific understanding is required to monitor how much emission reduction is necessary. In the near term, especially in the next seven years, sustained research and development for low carbon or carbon-free energy is necessary. Other measures must also be introduced, such as limiting the use of vehicles, closing down inefficient power plants, etc. In the long term, the use of the electric car, use solar energy, etc. is required. Reforestation must also be considered to absorb large amounts of carbon in the atmosphere

  9. Forest Soil Bacteria: Diversity, Involvement in Ecosystem Processes, and Response to Global Change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lladó, Salvador; López-Mondéjar, Rubén; Baldrian, Petr

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 81, č. 2 (2017), s. 1-27, č. článku e00063. ISSN 1092-2172 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GP14-09040P; GA MŠk(CZ) LD15086 Institutional support: RVO:61388971 Keywords : bacteria * decomposition * ecosystem processes Subject RIV: EE - Microbiology, Virology OBOR OECD: Microbiology Impact factor: 14.533, year: 2016

  10. The runoff declining process and water quality in songhuajiang river catchment, China under global climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mu, Xingmin; Gao, Peng; Wang, Fei [Northwest A and F University, Yangling (China); Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Yangling (China); Li, Ying [Northwest A and F University, Yangling (China); Shao, Hongbo [The CAS/Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Coastal Environmental Processes, Yantai Institute of Costal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Yantai (China); Institute for Life Sciences, Qingdao University of Science and Technology (QUST), Qingdao (China)

    2012-04-15

    The runoff in Songhuajiang River catchment has experienced a decreasing trend during the second half of the 20th century. Serially complete daily rainfall data of 42 rainfall stations from 1959 to 2002 and daily runoff data of five meteorological stations from 1953 to 2005 were obtained. The Mann-Kendall trend test and the sequential version of Mann-Kendall test were employed in this study to test the monthly and annual trends for both rainfall and runoff, to determine the start point of abrupt runoff declining, and to identify the main driving factors of runoff decline. The results showed an insignificant increasing trend in rainfall but a significant decreasing trend in runoff in the catchment. For the five meteorological stations, abrupt runoff decline occurred during 1957-1963 and the middle 1990s. Through Mann-Kendall comparisons for the area-rainfall and runoff for the two decreasing periods, human activity, rather than climatic change, is identified as the main driving factor of runoff decline. Analysis of land use/cover shows that farmland is most related with runoff decline among all the land use/cover change in Nenjiang catchment. From 1986 to 1995, the area of farmland increased rapidly from 6.99 to 7.61 million hm{sup 2}. Hydraulic engineering has a significant influence on the runoff decline in the second Songhuajiang catchment. Many large-scale reservoirs and hydropower stations have been built in the upstream of the Second Songhuajiang and lead to the runoff decline. Nenjiang and the Second Songhuajiang are the two sources of mainstream of Songhuajiang. Decreased runoff in these two sub-catchments then results in runoff decrease in mainstream of Songhuajiang catchment. It is, therefore, concluded that high percent agricultural land and hydraulic engineering are the most probable driving factors of runoff decline in Songhuajiang River catchment, China. (Copyright copyright 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  11. Designing Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, P. C.; ORyan, C.

    2012-12-01

    In a time when sensationalism rules the online world, it is best to keep things short. The people of the online world are not passing back and forth lengthy articles, but rather brief glimpses of complex information. This is the target audience we attempt to educate. Our challenge is then to attack not only ignorance, but also apathy toward global climate change, while conforming to popular modes of learning. When communicating our scientific material, it was difficult to determine what level of information was appropriate for our audience, especially with complex subject matter. Our unconventional approach for communicating the carbon crisis as it applies to global climate change caters to these 'recreational learners'. Using story-telling devices acquired from Carolyne's biomedical art background coupled with Peter's extensive knowledge of carbon cycle and ecosystems science, we developed a dynamic series of illustrations that capture the attention of a callous audience. Adapting complex carbon cycle and climate science into comic-book-style animations creates a channel between artist, scientist, and the general public. Brief scenes of information accompanied by text provide a perfect platform for visual learners, as well as fresh portrayals of stale material for the jaded. In this way art transcends the barriers of the cerebral and the abstract, paving the road to understanding.;

  12. Global Change in the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alverson, Keith

    2004-05-01

    Many people, even perhaps the occasional Eos reader, associate the term ``global change'' with warming caused by mankind's recent addiction to fossil fuels. Some may also be well aware of enormous global changes in the distant past uninfluenced by humans; for example, Pleistocene ice ages. But was there any ``global change'' between the end of the last ice age and the onset of industrialization? The answer to this question is addressed early-in the title, even-in the new book Global Change in the Holocene. I don't suggest anyone stop reading after the title, though; the rest of the book is both highly informative and a real pleasure to read. The opening chapter tells us that the Holocene is certainly not, as sometimes charged, a ``bland, pastoral coda to the contrasted movements of a stirring Pleistocene symphony.'' Rather, it is a ``period of continuous change.'' Melodious language aside, the combination of sustained and high-amplitude climatic variability and a wealth of well-preserved, precisely datable paleoclimate archives make the Holocene unique. Only by studying the Holocene can we hope to unravel the low-frequency workings of the Earth system and the degree to which humans have changed our world. This book sets out to teach the reader how to obtain the relevant data and how to use it to do much more than showing static analogues of possible future climate states. It challenges researchers to discern in their data the effects of the dynamic processes underlying coupled variability in the Earth's climate and ecosystems. These processes continue to act today, and it is through providing an understanding of these system dynamics in the Holocene that paleo-environmental studies can make the greatest contribution to future-oriented concerns.

  13. CHANGING GEOMETRY OF GLOBAL POLYCENTRICITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexey Gromyko

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Despite the changes, the configuration of global and regional power centers can still be represented as an hierarchy in which the first among equals, the equal, the peripheral and the marginal centers coexist with each other. BRICS’ as the means for increasing adaptivity to global realities and influencing global and regional process can potentially contribute to the shaping of multipolarity. The article suggests that BRICS is the most prospective project for coordinating of actions of various power centers of the world, as this format combines the political will, the economic foundation and the use of soft power tools. A Greater Europe continues to be the priority region for Russia in a political, economic, financial and cultural sense, and due to its geographical and civilizational particularity Russia can act as the link between other world major players both within BRICS and Russia-BRICS-EU triangle.

  14. Global economic processes and Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svitlana Radzievska

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents main trends in global economic development and impact thereof on Ukraine. A characteristic feature of the contemporary world is acceleration of globalization caused by achievements of the scientific and technological progress, which have provided technical means for successful overcoming the factors of time and space, whereby making the world more compact and ensuring the possibility of functioning as a single economic mechanism. Growing of opportunities for solving global problems is accompanied by aggravation of the latter such as: population growth, depletion of natural resources, deterioration of the environment, the mounting danger of climatic changes, potential failure to provide people with foods and potable water. Growth of social inequality in the world is also observed, as is increased differentiation of population by income level, which intensifies migration processes and thereby creates new problems related to coexistence of people belonging to different civilizations, cultures and value systems. An integral part of globalization is formation of regional associations which requires Ukraine to participate in this phase of globalization by means of becoming a member of a regional integration association with the purpose of improving its competitiveness and ensuring decent living for Ukrainian people under conditions of humanity functioning as a single planetary organism

  15. Global change research: Science and policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rayner, S.

    1993-05-01

    This report characterizes certain aspects of the Global Change Research Program of the US Government, and its relevance to the short and medium term needs of policy makers in the public and private sectors. It addresses some of the difficulties inherent in the science and policy interface on the issues of global change. Finally, this report offers some proposals for improving the science for policy process in the context of global environmental change

  16. Global change research: Science and policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rayner, S.

    1993-05-01

    This report characterizes certain aspects of the Global Change Research Program of the US Government, and its relevance to the short and medium term needs of policy makers in the public and private sectors. It addresses some of the difficulties inherent in the science and policy interface on the issues of global change. Finally, this report offers some proposals for improving the science for policy process in the context of global environmental change.

  17. Global atmospheric changes.

    OpenAIRE

    Piver, W T

    1991-01-01

    Increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can be directly related to global warming. In terms of human health, because a major cause of increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 is the increased combustion of fossil fuels, global warming also may result in increases in air pollutants, acid deposition, and exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To understand better the impacts of global warming phenomena on human health, this review emphasizes the proces...

  18. Aeolian process and climatic changes in loess records from the northeastern Tibetan Plateau: Response to global temperature forcing since 30 ka

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, X.; Yi, S; Lu, H.; Vandenberghe, J.F.; Han, Z.

    The response of surface processes to global climatic changes since the last glacial is critical to understanding the mechanism of climatic changes on the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, loess from the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (NETP) was closely spaced dated to provide an independent

  19. Global change of the climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moharam-nejad, Naser.

    1995-01-01

    Greenhouse effect is defined. greenhouse gases which are capable to produce greenhouse effect is mentioned. The production of greenhouse effects depends on the following factors; The amount of discharge to the atmosphere, Concentration, Life span, stability, Absorption and Emission. The effect of global change of climate on agriculture and living organisms is discussed. Global actions related to climate change and national procedures are described. The aim of climate change convention is given and the important points of convention is also mentioned

  20. Global Climatic Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houghton, Richard A.; Woodwell, George M.

    1989-01-01

    Cites some of the evidence which suggests that the production of carbon dioxide and methane from human activities has begun to change the climate. Describes some measures which should be taken to stop or slow this progression. (RT)

  1. Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, Janet; Serra-Diaz, Josep M; Syphard, Alexandra D; Regan, Helen M

    2016-04-05

    Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this paper, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on a literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change.

  2. Global climate change and children's health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shea, Katherine M

    2007-11-01

    There is a broad scientific consensus that the global climate is warming, the process is accelerating, and that human activities are very likely (>90% probability) the main cause. This warming will have effects on ecosystems and human health, many of them adverse. Children will experience both the direct and indirect effects of climate change. Actions taken by individuals, communities, businesses, and governments will affect the magnitude and rate of global climate change and resultant health impacts. This technical report reviews the nature of the global problem and anticipated health effects on children and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health.

  3. Global change: Acronyms and abbreviations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woodard, C.T. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Stoss, F.W. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Energy, Environment and Resources Center

    1995-05-01

    This list of acronyms and abbreviations is compiled to provide the user with a ready reference to dicipher the linguistic initialisms and abridgements for the study of global change. The terms included in this first edition were selected from a wide variety of sources: technical reports, policy documents, global change program announcements, newsletters, and other periodicals. The disciplinary interests covered by this document include agriculture, atmospheric science, ecology, environmental science, oceanography, policy science, and other fields. In addition to its availability in hard copy, the list of acronyms and abbreviations is available in DOS-formatted diskettes and through CDIAC`s anonymous File Transfer Protocol (FTP) area on the Internet.

  4. Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) is dedicated to understanding the problems of global climate change and their potential solutions. The Institute...

  5. Narratives of change and reform processes: global and local transactions in French psychiatric hospital reform after the Second World War.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henckes, Nicolas

    2009-02-01

    As with the rest of biomedicine, psychiatry has, since the Second World War, developed under the strong influence of the transnational accumulation of a whole series of practices and knowledge. Anthropology has taught us to pay attention to the transactions between local-level actors and those operating at the global level in the construction of this new world of medicine. This article examines the role played by the recommendations of the WHO Expert Committee of Mental Health in the reform of the French mental health system during the 1950s. Rooted in the experience of practitioners and administrators participating in the process of reforming local psychiatric systems, the recommendations of the WHO Expert Committee developed a new vision of regulating psychiatry, based on professionalism and an idea of a normativity of the doctor-patient relation. This article shows how, by mobilizing the WHO reports' recommendations, French administrators and doctors succeeded in creating a typically French object: "the psychiatric sector", founded on elaborating a new mandate for the psychiatric profession. The article thus questions the deinstitutionalization model as an explanation of transformations of the structure of the French psychiatry system in the post-war period.

  6. Solar influences on global change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Board on Global Change; Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources; Division on Earth and Life Studies; National Research Council; National Academy of Sciences

    ..., but significant uncertainties remain. This book addresses current monitoring and understanding of solar influences on both the climate system and the ozone layer and prioritizes the research effort that will be needed to provide a sound scientific basis for policymaking related to global change issues.

  7. The Deep Space Gateway Lightning Mapper (DLM) - Monitoring Global Change and Thunderstorm Processes Through Observations of Earth's High-Latitude Lightning from Cis-Lunar Orbit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Timothy; Blakeslee, R. J.; Cecil, D. J.; Christian, H. J.; Gatlin, P. N.; Goodman, S. J.; Koshak, W. J.; Petersen, W. A.; Quick, M.; Schultz, C. J.; hide

    2018-01-01

    Function: Monitor global change and thunderstorm processes through observations of Earth's high-latitude lightning. This instrument will combine long-lived sampling of individual thunderstorms with long-term observations of lightning at high latitudes: How is global change affecting thunderstorm patterns; How do high-latitude thunderstorms differ from low-latitude? Why is the Gateway the optimal facility for this instrument / research: Expected DSG (Deep Space Gateway) orbits will provide nearly continuous viewing of the Earth's high latitudes (50 degrees latitude and poleward); These regions are not well covered by existing lightning mappers (e.g., Lightning Imaging Sensor / LIS, or Geostationary Lightning Mapper / GLM); Polar, Molniya, Tundra, etc. Earth orbits have significant drawbacks related to continuous coverage and/or stable FOVs (Fields of View).

  8. A review of global environmental mercury processes in response to human and natural perturbations: Changes of emissions, climate, and land use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obrist, Daniel; Kirk, Jane L; Zhang, Lei; Sunderland, Elsie M; Jiskra, Martin; Selin, Noelle E

    2018-03-01

    We review recent progress in our understanding of the global cycling of mercury (Hg), including best estimates of Hg concentrations and pool sizes in major environmental compartments and exchange processes within and between these reservoirs. Recent advances include the availability of new global datasets covering areas of the world where environmental Hg data were previously lacking; integration of these data into global and regional models is continually improving estimates of global Hg cycling. New analytical techniques, such as Hg stable isotope characterization, provide novel constraints of sources and transformation processes. The major global Hg reservoirs that are, and continue to be, affected by anthropogenic activities include the atmosphere (4.4-5.3 Gt), terrestrial environments (particularly soils: 250-1000 Gg), and aquatic ecosystems (e.g., oceans: 270-450 Gg). Declines in anthropogenic Hg emissions between 1990 and 2010 have led to declines in atmospheric Hg 0 concentrations and Hg II wet deposition in Europe and the US (- 1.5 to - 2.2% per year). Smaller atmospheric Hg 0 declines (- 0.2% per year) have been reported in high northern latitudes, but not in the southern hemisphere, while increasing atmospheric Hg loads are still reported in East Asia. New observations and updated models now suggest high concentrations of oxidized Hg II in the tropical and subtropical free troposphere where deep convection can scavenge these Hg II reservoirs. As a result, up to 50% of total global wet Hg II deposition has been predicted to occur to tropical oceans. Ocean Hg 0 evasion is a large source of present-day atmospheric Hg (approximately 2900 Mg/year; range 1900-4200 Mg/year). Enhanced seawater Hg 0 levels suggest enhanced Hg 0 ocean evasion in the intertropical convergence zone, which may be linked to high Hg II deposition. Estimates of gaseous Hg 0 emissions to the atmosphere over land, long considered a critical Hg source, have been revised downward, and

  9. The Process of Globalization in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SERGIU-LUCIAN RAIU

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Globalization means effects on economies, on the environment, on the social, political and cultural life, caused by a phenomenon that acts at a planetary scale. This article aims to explain several dimensions of globalization, which also affected Romania, and, at the same time, it also proposes possible ways to tackle the effects of the globalization process. Before 1989, people who spoke of globalization in our country were referring to the Change of the New International Economic and Political Order or to the New Economic Order and International Politics. Globalization intends to be a solution to the great challenges of the 21st century, such as bridging the economic and social gaps, eliminating poverty and increasing the quality of life for all the inhabitants of our planet.

  10. Dynamic change of global and local information processing in propofol-induced loss and recovery of consciousness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin M Monti

    Full Text Available Whether unique to humans or not, consciousness is a central aspect of our experience of the world. The neural fingerprint of this experience, however, remains one of the least understood aspects of the human brain. In this paper we employ graph-theoretic measures and support vector machine classification to assess, in 12 healthy volunteers, the dynamic reconfiguration of functional connectivity during wakefulness, propofol-induced sedation and loss of consciousness, and the recovery of wakefulness. Our main findings, based on resting-state fMRI, are three-fold. First, we find that propofol-induced anesthesia does not bear differently on long-range versus short-range connections. Second, our multi-stage design dissociated an initial phase of thalamo-cortical and cortico-cortical hyperconnectivity, present during sedation, from a phase of cortico-cortical hypoconnectivity, apparent during loss of consciousness. Finally, we show that while clustering is increased during loss of consciousness, as recently suggested, it also remains significantly elevated during wakefulness recovery. Conversely, the characteristic path length of brain networks (i.e., the average functional distance between any two regions of the brain appears significantly increased only during loss of consciousness, marking a decrease of global information-processing efficiency uniquely associated with unconsciousness. These findings suggest that propofol-induced loss of consciousness is mainly tied to cortico-cortical and not thalamo-cortical mechanisms, and that decreased efficiency of information flow is the main feature differentiating the conscious from the unconscious brain.

  11. Global change. Impacts on water and food security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ringler, Claudia [International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC (United States); Biswas, Asit K. [Third World Centre for Water Management, Los Clubes, Atizapan (Mexico); Cline, Sarah A. (eds.) [United States Department of Agriculture, Riverdale, MD (US). Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS)

    2010-07-01

    This volume examines the various drivers of global change, including climate change, and the use of agricultural knowledge, science, and technology, as well as the outcomes of global change processes, including impacts on water quality and human well-being. Several authors examine potential policy and institutional solutions afforded by globalization to the challenges ahead, particularly the role of trade policy. Financing water development in a more globalized world and adapting to global warming are also examined. (orig.)

  12. Uncertainty and global climate change research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B.E. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Weiher, R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO (United States)

    1994-06-01

    The Workshop on Uncertainty and Global Climate Change Research March 22--23, 1994, in Knoxville, Tennessee. This report summarizes the results and recommendations of the workshop. The purpose of the workshop was to examine in-depth the concept of uncertainty. From an analytical point of view, uncertainty is a central feature of global climate science, economics and decision making. The magnitude and complexity of uncertainty surrounding global climate change has made it quite difficult to answer even the most simple and important of questions-whether potentially costly action is required now to ameliorate adverse consequences of global climate change or whether delay is warranted to gain better information to reduce uncertainties. A major conclusion of the workshop is that multidisciplinary integrated assessments using decision analytic techniques as a foundation is key to addressing global change policy concerns. First, uncertainty must be dealt with explicitly and rigorously since it is and will continue to be a key feature of analysis and recommendations on policy questions for years to come. Second, key policy questions and variables need to be explicitly identified, prioritized, and their uncertainty characterized to guide the entire scientific, modeling, and policy analysis process. Multidisciplinary integrated assessment techniques and value of information methodologies are best suited for this task. In terms of timeliness and relevance of developing and applying decision analytic techniques, the global change research and policy communities are moving rapidly toward integrated approaches to research design and policy analysis.

  13. Global Container Management Process Improvements

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-19

    network was illustrated in a second case study that was reviewed. This case study highlights a global manufacturing company struggling in their delivery...interface of the application was developed to be clean and user-friendly, enabling users to easily navigate and utilize the system. The intuitive automated ...This instruction cements USTRANSCOM’s role as the distribution process owner for GCM, but both Joint Publication and the Defense Travel Regulation

  14. Human response to global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frassetto, R.

    1991-01-01

    Alertness of the global climate and environment change triggered by the effects of the economy of waste of industrial modern society has been raised to governments and populations. World-wide agreements and protocols have been established; they will be improved for action in two major issues: limitation (elimination of CFC's use, reductions of CO2 emissions, increasing energy efficiency, etc.) and adaptation (socio economic impacts, human behaviour, enhancement of predictive models, etc.)

  15. The southern global change program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Southeastern Forest Experiment Station

    1992-01-01

    For mote than a decade, scientists around the world have expressed concern over observed changes in the Earth's environment that suggest fum global environmental problems. They have documented increased levels of air pollutants such as ozone nd acid I as well as in- in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Scientists also have noted a 0.5°F to l.0°F rise...

  16. Global Warming and Climate Change Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Atul

    2008-03-01

    Global climate change has emerged as a major scientific and political issue within a few short decades. Scientific evidence clearly indicates that this change is a result of a complex interplay between a number of human-related and natural earth systems. While the complexity of the earth-ocean-atmosphere system makes the understanding and prediction of global climate change very difficult, improved scientific knowledge and research capabilities are advancing our understanding of global climate change resulting from rising atmospheric levels of radiatively important (mostly heat-trapping) gases and particles. The effects of climate change can be assessed with climate models, which account for complex physical, chemical and biological processes, and interactions of these processes with human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels along with land use changes. This presentation begins with a discussion of the current understanding of the concerns about climate change, and then discusses the role climate models in scientific projections of climate change as well as their current strengths and weaknesses.

  17. EUROPEAN UNION AND THE PROCESS OF GLOBALIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihail CARADAICĂ

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available What is the relation between globalization and the process of European integration? Does the European integration have its own way, or is it deeply dependent on globalization? Those are the main questions I will try to answer in this paper by using an alternative critical approach: neo-gramscianism. Neo-gramscianism is a historical materialist view on the European integration process and international political economy which offers a better understanding of the social changes in terms of social forces agency and super structural influence (the neoliberal ideology of globalization and European integration. My aim is to analyze the globalization process through a neo-gramscian theoretical framework and to observe how its main components affect European Integration. I will do this by assuming the definition of globalization provided by Andreas Bieler, who understands this process through three main pillars: transnationalization of finance, transnationalization of production and ideological shift from Keynesianism to neoliberalism. Finally I will try to formulate some conclusions regarding the emergence of European Round Table of Industrialists – the first lobby group of big capital at the European Union level – and Economic and Monetary Union – the internal market program that symbolizes the shift to neo-liberalism.

  18. The Ecological consequences of global climate change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Woodward, F. I

    1992-01-01

    ... & land use - modeling potential responses of vegetation to global climate change - effects of climatic change on population dynamics of crop pests - responses of soils to climate change - predicting...

  19. Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

  20. Changing Foundations for Global Business Systems Solutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slepniov, Dmitrij; Wæhrens, Brian Vejrum; Gubi, Ebbe

    2011-01-01

    Companies are actively seeking new competitive advantages by changing the location and ownership of their manufacturing processes. This process results in increasing fragmentation and dispersion of global business systems of companies. The purpose of this paper is to identify how companies may...... improve the integration of such business systems. The paper draws on a case study of a Danish industrial equipment firm. The paper describes and analyzes the company’s operations network configurations, which lay at the foundations of the company’s global business system. It is demonstrated how...... the operations configurations have been changing over time and affecting the overall business system. The paper identifies the key determinants and outcomes of this change. Moreover, it proposes how the design of operations configurations can be improved through the development of a distinct systemic approach...

  1. Citizen Journalism and Digital Voices: Instituting a Collaborative Process between Global Youth, Technology and Media for Positive Social Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worley, Robin

    2011-01-01

    Millions of youths in developing countries are described by UNICEF as "invisible and excluded." They live at the margins of society, facing challenges to their daily existence, powerless to make positive changes. But the emergence of citizen journalism and digital storytelling may offer these youths a chance to share their voices and…

  2. Global change and Canadians: A teacher's guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    A report called Global Change and Canadians has been produced by the Royal Society of Canada to answer basic questions being asked about global change issues. A teacher's guide is presented to help teachers make effective use of the report in developing programs with students concerning global change. A basic set of teaching and learning activities related to the major topics in the report is provided, curricular connections between global change topics and school programs are suggested, and some additional resources on global change are listed. The guide is divided into six chapters, each corresponding to the chapters of the global change report. Each chapter contains a summary of the major concepts from the report, some of the learning outcomes that occur when those concepts are addressed, a series of suggested activities or ideas, and a guide for assessing students' abilities relative to the concepts of the chapter. The topics of the chapters cover the nature of global change, the importance of global change to Canada, the causes of global change, the consequences of global change (including climate change and the greenhouse effect), the effects of global change on society, and Canadian responses to global change. 64 refs., 3 figs

  3. Global Climate Change: Three Policy Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-11-26

    Committee on Science, Space , and Technology, Technologies and Strategies for Addressing Global Climate Change, Hearings, 17 July 1991 (Washington...Generations, Economic Analysis, and the Policy Process,” in U.S. Congress, House, Committee on Science, Space , and Technology, Technologies and...through the ecological lens, lives and such values as intergenerational equity should not be quantified as a commodity.68 What people need are

  4. The changing global context of public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, A J; Beaglehole, R

    2000-08-05

    Future health prospects depend increasingly on globalisation processes and on the impact of global environmental change. Economic globalisation--entailng deregulated trade and investment--is a mixed blessing for health. Economic growth and the dissemination of technologies have widely enhanced life expectancy. However, aspects of globalisation are jeopardising health by eroding social and environmental conditions, exacerbating the rich-poor gap, and disseminating consumerism. Global environmental changes reflect the growth of populations and the intensity of economic activity. These changes include altered composition of the atmosphere, land degradation, depletion of terrestrial aquifers and ocean fisheries, and loss of biodiversity. This weakening of life-supporting systems poses health risks. Contemporary public health must therefore encompass the interrelated tasks of reducing social and health inequalities and achieving health-sustaining environments.

  5. Engineering paradigms and anthropogenic global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohle, Martin

    2016-04-01

    This essay discusses 'paradigms' as means to conceive anthropogenic global change. Humankind alters earth-systems because of the number of people, the patterns of consumption of resources, and the alterations of environments. This process of anthropogenic global change is a composite consisting of societal (in the 'noosphere') and natural (in the 'bio-geosphere') features. Engineering intercedes these features; e.g. observing stratospheric ozone depletion has led to understanding it as a collateral artefact of a particular set of engineering choices. Beyond any specific use-case, engineering works have a common function; e.g. civil-engineering intersects economic activity and geosphere. People conceive their actions in the noosphere including giving purpose to their engineering. The 'noosphere' is the ensemble of social, cultural or political concepts ('shared subjective mental insights') of people. Among people's concepts are the paradigms how to shape environments, production systems and consumption patterns given their societal preferences. In that context, engineering is a means to implement a given development path. Four paradigms currently are distinguishable how to make anthropogenic global change happening. Among the 'engineering paradigms' for anthropogenic global change, 'adaptation' is a paradigm for a business-as-usual scenario and steady development paths of societies. Applying this paradigm implies to forecast the change to come, to appropriately design engineering works, and to maintain as far as possible the current production and consumption patterns. An alternative would be to adjust incrementally development paths of societies, namely to 'dovetail' anthropogenic and natural fluxes of matter and energy. To apply that paradigm research has to identify 'natural boundaries', how to modify production and consumption patterns, and how to tackle process in the noosphere to render alterations of common development paths acceptable. A further alternative

  6. International Business and Global Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.

    2008-11-01

    Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and climate change policy. Embedded in relevant management literature, this book gives a concise treatment of developments in policy and business activity on global, regional and national levels, using examples and systematic data from a large number of international companies. The first part outlines the international climate policy landscape and voluntary initiatives taken by companies, both alone and together with others. The second part examines companies' strategies, covering innovation for climate change, as well as compensation via emissions trading and carbon offsetting. Written by well-known experts in the field, International Business and Global Climate Change illustrates how an environmental topic becomes strategically important in a mainstream sense, affecting corporate decision-making, business processes, products, reputation, advertising, communication, accounting and finance

  7. Global climate change -- taking action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    Commitment of the Canadian Mining Association (MAC), on behalf of its member companies, to play a global leadership role in eco-efficiency and environmental stewardship and participate fully in Canada's efforts to reduce emissions that contribute to climate change, are outlined. The principles underlying the MAC's commitment include: prudent action to reduce GHG emissions; the greatest possible efficiency in using energy; use of best practices and technologies; support for the development of balanced climate change policies; cooperation with all stakeholders in achieving the maximum feasible reduction in GHG emissions; support for research and analysis of the social, economic and environmental implications of GHG reduction strategies; and active support for a balanced and effective public outreach and education program. A brief review of how the mining sector has already made giant strides in cutting energy consumption and in reducing carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per unit of output during the past decade is supplemented by summaries of GHG reduction success stories from member companies such as Cominco, Teck Corporation, Falconbridge and Syncrude Canada Limited

  8. A DBMS architecture for global change research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hachem, Nabil I.; Gennert, Michael A.; Ward, Matthew O.

    1993-08-01

    The goal of this research is the design and development of an integrated system for the management of very large scientific databases, cartographic/geographic information processing, and exploratory scientific data analysis for global change research. The system will represent both spatial and temporal knowledge about natural and man-made entities on the eath's surface, following an object-oriented paradigm. A user will be able to derive, modify, and apply, procedures to perform operations on the data, including comparison, derivation, prediction, validation, and visualization. This work represents an effort to extend the database technology with an intrinsic class of operators, which is extensible and responds to the growing needs of scientific research. Of significance is the integration of many diverse forms of data into the database, including cartography, geography, hydrography, hypsography, images, and urban planning data. Equally important is the maintenance of metadata, that is, data about the data, such as coordinate transformation parameters, map scales, and audit trails of previous processing operations. This project will impact the fields of geographical information systems and global change research as well as the database community. It will provide an integrated database management testbed for scientific research, and a testbed for the development of analysis tools to understand and predict global change.

  9. Cosmoglobalistics: Interrelation of Global and Cosmic Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ursul Tatiana

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper develops the concept antropogeocosmizm, emanating from the fact that the main purpose of space activity in the short term is the historical use of space to solve global problems and in the long term socio-natural transition to the sustainable development of the planet. In this study based on the ideological origins and formation of a new direction and globalization, exploring the relationship of global and cosmic factors, the impact of the latter on the development of global processes and systems, the problem of space on the planet and escalating global processes in space. It is about the relationship of space and planetary processes, the transformation of the global response to space activities (and their interaction, and global development in the cosmic evolution. Taken as the position that global studies examining global processes and systems, and global processes are understood by the natural, social and socio-natural processes unfolding on planet Earth and have evolutionary significance. It is shown that global processes and issues affecting the world at large, is to some extent a manifestation of the global-space character of the contradictions associated with the expansion of spatial boundaries of human activity, including the conquest of space. Special attention is paid to the potential global catastrophes and geospatial software security. Considering the introduction of a substantive field cosmoglobalistiks natural processes, prospects globally exoplanet space research, as well as "global methodology" search for extraterrestrial intelligence. We consider the discovery of dark matter forms that give rise to a very substantial transformation attitude and stimulate the formation of global-cosmological research, which will consider mainly the global characteristics of matter, manifested in three main fragments of the Universe.

  10. Satellite Contributions to Global Change Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Claire L.

    2009-01-01

    sophisticated climate models, in situ process studies, and data sets that extend back well before the introduction of satellite technology. Nonetheless, the repetitive, global view provided by satellites is contributing in a major way to our improved recognition of how the Earth im changing, a recognition that is none too soon in view of the magnitude of the impacts that humans can now have.

  11. Global tree network for computing structures enabling global processing operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blumrich; Matthias A.; Chen, Dong; Coteus, Paul W.; Gara, Alan G.; Giampapa, Mark E.; Heidelberger, Philip; Hoenicke, Dirk; Steinmacher-Burow, Burkhard D.; Takken, Todd E.; Vranas, Pavlos M.

    2010-01-19

    A system and method for enabling high-speed, low-latency global tree network communications among processing nodes interconnected according to a tree network structure. The global tree network enables collective reduction operations to be performed during parallel algorithm operations executing in a computer structure having a plurality of the interconnected processing nodes. Router devices are included that interconnect the nodes of the tree via links to facilitate performance of low-latency global processing operations at nodes of the virtual tree and sub-tree structures. The global operations performed include one or more of: broadcast operations downstream from a root node to leaf nodes of a virtual tree, reduction operations upstream from leaf nodes to the root node in the virtual tree, and point-to-point message passing from any node to the root node. The global tree network is configurable to provide global barrier and interrupt functionality in asynchronous or synchronized manner, and, is physically and logically partitionable.

  12. Climate change and agricultural production | Offiong | Global ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The threat of global environmental change has tended to focus on the possible impacts of a changing environment on agriculture and the implications for global food security. From a policy viewpoint, however, it is also difficult to understand the level to which agriculturally related activities may contribute to global-scale ...

  13. Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change · Climate Change: Generic Implications for Agriculture · Controlled environment facilities at IARI used for evaluating model performance in future climate change scenarios · Slide 4 · Slide 5 · Global studies indicate considerable impact of climate change in tropics.

  14. Clouds and Climate Change. Understanding Global Change: Earth Science and Human Impacts. Global Change Instruction Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Glenn E.

    The Global Change Instruction Program was designed by college professors to fill a need for interdisciplinary materials on the emerging science of global change. This instructional module introduces the basic features and classifications of clouds and cloud cover, and explains how clouds form, what they are made of, what roles they play in…

  15. Global Change: A Biogeochemical Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcelroy, M.

    1983-01-01

    A research program that is designed to enhance our understanding of the Earth as the support system for life is described. The program change, both natural and anthropogenic, that might affect the habitability of the planet on a time scale roughly equal to that of a human life is studied. On this time scale the atmosphere, biosphere, and upper ocean are treated as a single coupled system. The need for understanding the processes affecting the distribution of essential nutrients--carbon, nitrogen, phosphorous, sulfur, and water--within this coupled system is examined. The importance of subtle interactions among chemical, biological, and physical effects is emphasized. The specific objectives are to define the present state of the planetary life-support system; to ellucidate the underlying physical, chemical, and biological controls; and to provide the body of knowledge required to assess changes that might impact the future habitability of the Earth.

  16. Biocrusts in the context of global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Sasha C.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Ochoa-Hueso, Raul; Kuske, Cheryl; Darrouzet-Nardi, Anthony N.; Darby, Brian; Sinsabaugh, Bob; Oliver, Mel; Sancho, Leo; Belnap, Jayne

    2016-01-01

    A wide range of studies show global environmental change will profoundly affect the structure, function, and dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. The research synthesized here underscores that biocrust communities are also likely to respond significantly to global change drivers, with a large potential for modification to their abundance, composition, and function. We examine how elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate change (increased temperature and altered precipitation), and nitrogen deposition affect biocrusts and the ecosystems they inhabit. We integrate experimental and observational data, as well as physiological, community ecology, and biogeochemical perspectives. Taken together, these data highlight the potential for biocrust organisms to respond dramatically to environmental change and show how changes to biocrust community composition translate into effects on ecosystem function (e.g., carbon and nutrient cycling, soil stability, energy balance). Due to the importance of biocrusts in regulating dryland ecosystem processes and the potential for large modifications to biocrust communities, an improved understanding and predictive capacity regarding biocrust responses to environmental change are of scientific and societal relevance.

  17. New ecology, global change, and forest politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sampson, N.

    1993-01-01

    Ecosystems constantly change. Some changes are caused by natural conditions that evolve at a very slow pace including climate change, species evolution and migration, and soil formation. Forests don't always respond to gradual changes in gradual ways, though gradual change may be hidden for years within the normal variation in the ecosystem. The industrial age has resulted in a rapid and continuing buildup of atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbons which trap heat in the greenhouse effect. Industrial processes also emit oxides of nitrogen and sulfur that change atmospheric chemistry and alter the nutrient input into ecosystems. Natural forests face a hard time adjusting to a rate of climatic change that is 3 to 10 times faster than species can migrate and that increases the occurrence of major windstorms. In the forest ecosystem where trees are removed or destroyed under rapid climatic change, conditions may not return to their original state, even if we try to restore it. When the ecosystem changes faster than the bureaucracy of the management agency, a serious problem exists. New understandings of ecology and global change may force new ways of thinking in these situations

  18. U.S. Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment Global Change Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, Curt

    2012-01-01

    The program: a) Coordinates Federal research to better understand and prepare the nation for global change. b) Priori4zes and supports cutting edge scientific work in global change. c) Assesses the state of scientific knowledge and the Nation s readiness to respond to global change. d) Communicates research findings to inform, educate, and engage the global community.

  19. Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deng, Yi [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2014-11-24

    DOE-GTRC-05596 11/24/2104 Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate PI: Dr. Yi Deng (PI) School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of Technology 404-385-1821, yi.deng@eas.gatech.edu El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Annular Modes (AMs) represent respectively the most important modes of low frequency variability in the tropical and extratropical circulations. The projection of future changes in the ENSO and AM variability, however, remains highly uncertain with the state-of-the-science climate models. This project conducted a process-resolving, quantitative evaluations of the ENSO and AM variability in the modern reanalysis observations and in climate model simulations. The goal is to identify and understand the sources of uncertainty and biases in models’ representation of ENSO and AM variability. Using a feedback analysis method originally formulated by one of the collaborative PIs, we partitioned the 3D atmospheric temperature anomalies and surface temperature anomalies associated with ENSO and AM variability into components linked to 1) radiation-related thermodynamic processes such as cloud and water vapor feedbacks, 2) local dynamical processes including convection and turbulent/diffusive energy transfer and 3) non-local dynamical processes such as the horizontal energy transport in the oceans and atmosphere. In the past 4 years, the research conducted at Georgia Tech under the support of this project has led to 15 peer-reviewed publications and 9 conference/workshop presentations. Two graduate students and one postdoctoral fellow also received research training through participating the project activities. This final technical report summarizes key scientific discoveries we made and provides also a list of all publications and conference presentations resulted from research activities at Georgia Tech. The main findings include

  20. Changing ideas of global limits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goddy, D

    1984-03-02

    In this discussion of changing ideas of global limits, attention is directed to world trade, moral restraint, and the "green revolution." A fresh look at the work of those who first considered population problems, e.gg., Malthur, can help make some sense of the population problems the world faces today. Malthus, writing in the late 1700s, concluded that population multiplies with each generation. He saw that food production was limited by the amount of available cropland and that the more people there are, the less food they will have to eat -- assuming that all available cropland is planted. This grim view of the future led Malthus to oppose government aid to the poor maintaining that such assistance would only encourage poor people to have large families. His solution was "moral restratin," seeing it as the duty of each individual to refrain from marriage until he was able to support his children. At the time this advice seemed cruel and Malthus was bitterly attacked by writers everywhere in Europe. Karl Marx and other ctitics of Malthus believed that poverty was caused by unjust governments and the selfishness of the rich. Marx clamied that the problem was too few jobs rather than too many people. The dire predictions of Malthus were soon forgotten as manufacturing industries began to transform the economies of Western Europe in the 1800s. Along with soaring economic growth came a host of developments that improved people's lives, e.g., better transportation, better sanitiation and nutrition, and better medicine. New inventions helped farmers fo produce more food. Next came the "demographic transition." Population grew quickly in Europe and North America as people became healthier and lived longer. Gradually, people in the industrial nations began deciding to have smaller families to enable them to afford an even higher living standard. By the late 1920s birthrates in Europe and the US had dropped so low that mention of the "population problem" usually referred

  1. Global Environmental change: Understanding the Human Dimensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrisette, P.M.

    1993-01-01

    This book is from the National Research Council's Committee on the Human dimensions of Global Change. The object is to examine what is known about human dimensions of global environmental change, identify the major immediate needs for knowledge, and recommend a strategy over the next 5-10 years. Case studies are used in human causes of global change. issues related to theory, methods, and data are covered, as well as institutional needs for interdicipinary approaches

  2. Global processing in amblyopia: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamm, Lisa M.; Black, Joanna; Dai, Shuan; Thompson, Benjamin

    2014-01-01

    Amblyopia is a neurodevelopmental disorder of the visual system that is associated with disrupted binocular vision during early childhood. There is evidence that the effects of amblyopia extend beyond the primary visual cortex to regions of the dorsal and ventral extra-striate visual cortex involved in visual integration. Here, we review the current literature on global processing deficits in observers with either strabismic, anisometropic, or deprivation amblyopia. A range of global processing tasks have been used to investigate the extent of the cortical deficit in amblyopia including: global motion perception, global form perception, face perception, and biological motion. These tasks appear to be differentially affected by amblyopia. In general, observers with unilateral amblyopia appear to show deficits for local spatial processing and global tasks that require the segregation of signal from noise. In bilateral cases, the global processing deficits are exaggerated, and appear to extend to specialized perceptual systems such as those involved in face processing. PMID:24987383

  3. Cave temperatures and global climatic change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badino Giovanni

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The physical processes that establish the cave temperature are briefly discussed, showing that cave temperature is generally strictly connected with the external climate. The Global Climatic changes can then influence also the underground climate. It is shown that the mountain thermal inertia causes a delay between the two climates and then a thermal unbalance between the cave and the atmosphere. As a consequence there is a net energy flux from the atmosphere to the mountain, larger than the geothermal one, which is deposited mainly in the epidermal parts of caves.

  4. Beneath the surface of global change: Impacts of climate change on groundwater

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Green, T.R.; Taniguchi, M.; Kooi, H.; Gurdak, J.J.; Allen, D.M.; Hiscock, K.M.; Treidel, H.; Aureli, A.

    2011-01-01

    Global change encompasses changes in the characteristics of inter-related climate variables in space and time, and derived changes in terrestrial processes, including human activities that affect the environment. As such, projected global change includes groundwater systems. Here, groundwater is

  5. Microenvironmental change as a mechanism to study global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lortie, C. J.

    2016-12-01

    Global change is a set of significant processes that influence all aspects of ecosystem functioning and often-natural services within Santa Barbara County. The sensitivity of coastal and urban systems is certainly very high. However, profound changes are also predicted for arid and semi-arid systems globally, and California is no exception. These dryland systems are less buffered by oceanic processes and typically express high inter-annual variation in precipitation and temperatures in addition to perturbations associated with long-term droughts. However, climate estimates and downscaled values can present challenges in providing evidence at the scale relevant to individual species or individuals, and the importance of biotic interactions must be coupled to these estimates in space and time. Coupled indicators of key micro-environmental measures to both positive and negative interactions between foundation species and other organisms provide a metric of buffering capacity and resilience to global change at fine spatial scales. Consequently, the primary objective of this research project is to provide both the a well-articulated, ecologically relevant micro-environmental big data measure of global change within Santa Barbara County and a coupled estimate of concurrent changes in interactions in key species within the region. Shrubs directly and indirectly buffered local changes in the microenvironment thereby functioning as refuges for other species within arid and semi-arid regions subject to dramatic global change drivers. The following major patterns were identified: (i) shrub micro-environments reduce the level of stress and amplitude of variation associated with temperature and moisture, (ii) many plant and animal species including threatened lizards are relatively more common with shrubs within the region, and (iii) the variation in the interaction patterns between species relates to the extent of amelioration provided by shrub-biodiversity complexes within

  6. Climate changes instead of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radovanović Milan M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Air temperature changes on Earth in recent years are the subject of numerous and increasingly interdisciplinary research. In contrast to, conditionally speaking, generally accepted views that these changes are conditioned primarily by anthropogenic activity, more results appear to suggest that it is dominant natural processes about. Whether because of the proven existence of areas in which downtrends are registered or the stagnation of air temperature, as opposed to areas where the increase is determined, in scientific papers, as well as the media, the increasingly present is the use of the term climate changes instead of the global warming. In this paper, we shall try to present arguments for the debate relating to the official view of the IPCC, as well as research indicating the opposite view.

  7. Global meaning in people with stroke: Content and changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elsbeth Littooij

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available After a traumatic event like a stroke, people need to find meaning and control again. This study enhances knowledge on one of the driving principles behind meaning-making processes: global meaning. Global meaning refers to individuals’ general orienting systems, comprising fundamental beliefs and life goals. Little is known about global meaning in people with stroke and whether global meaning changes after stroke. In this qualitative study, five aspects of global meaning were found: core values, relationships, worldview, identity and inner posture. Continuity in all aspects was reported, but worldview, identity and inner posture were also subjected to change.

  8. Global change impacts on mangrove ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKee, Karen L.

    2004-01-01

    Mangroves are tropical/subtropical communities of primarily tree species that grow in the intertidal zone. These tidal forests are important coastal ecosystems that are valued for a variety of ecological and societal goods and services. Major local threats to mangrove ecosystems worldwide include clearcutting and trimming of forests for urban, agricultural, or industrial expansion; hydrological alterations; toxic chemical spills; and eutrophication. In many countries with mangroves, much of the human population resides in the coastal zone, and their activities often negatively impact the integrity of mangrove forests. In addition, eutrophication, which is the process whereby nutrients build up to higher than normal levels in a natural system, is possibly one of the most serious threats to mangroves and associated ecosystems such as coral reefs. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the National Wetlands Research Center are working to more fully understand global impacts on these significant ecosystems.Changes in climate and other factors may also affect mangroves, but in complex ways. Global warming may promote expansion of mangrove forests to higher latitudes and accelerate sea-level rise through melting of polar ice or steric expansion of oceans. Changes in sea level would alter flooding patterns and the structure and areal extent of mangroves. Climate change may also alter rainfall patterns, which would in turn change local salinity regimes and competitive interactions of mangroves with other wetland species. Increases in frequency or intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes in combination with sea-level rise may alter erosion and sedimentation rates in mangrove forests. Another global change factor that may directly affect mangrove growth is increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), caused by burning of fossil fuels and other factors. Elevated CO2 concentration may increase mangrove growth by stimulating photosynthesis or improving water use

  9. Dynamics of energy technologies and global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gruebler, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Victor, D.G. [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria). Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies Project

    1999-05-01

    Based on work at IIASA, typology for technology analysis is presented and methods to analyze the impact of technological changes on the global environment, especially global warming are discussed, focusing on energy technologies. Much improved treatment of technology is possible using both historical analysis and new modeling techniques. In the historical record characteristic `learning rates` are identified that allow simple quantified characterization of the improvement in cost and performance due to cumulative experience and investments. Patterns, processes and timescales typifying the diffusion of new technologies in competitive markets are identified. Technologies that are long-lived and are components of interlocking networks require the longest time to diffuse and co-evolve with other technologies in the network; such network effects yield high barriers to entry even for superior competitors. These observations allow improvements to modeling of technological change and its consequences for global environmental change. One is that the replacement of long-lived infrastructures over time has also replaced the fuels that power the economy to yield progressively more energy per unit of carbon pollution - from coal to oil to gas. Such replacement has `decarbonized` the global primary energy supply 0.3% per year. Most baseline projections for emissions of carbon ignore this historical trend and show little decarbonization. A second improvement is that by incorporating learning curves and uncertainty into micro scale models it is possible to endogenously generate patterns of technological choice that mirror the real world. Thirdly, learning phenomena can be included stylistically in macro-scale models. Arriving on that path by the year 2100 depends on intervening actions, such as incentives to promote greater diversity in technology. 112 refs., 15 figs., 3 tabs.

  10. Monitoring global change: a selection of examples

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    CSIR, Natural Resources and Environment

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available The reality of global change (including climate change) has gripped the imaginations of movie moguls, graced the agendas of international organisations such as the United Nations, and now also receives prominent attention from the international...

  11. Global Climate Change: Threat Multiplier for AFRICOM?

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Yackle, Terri A

    2007-01-01

    .... Whatever the catalyst for this abrupt climate change, stability for Africa hinges upon mitigating the effects of global climate change to prevent future conflicts such as Darfur, and the instability...

  12. Globalization and Climate Change Regulations in Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Sulistiawati, Linda Yanti

    2012-01-01

    Globalization is rampant in every aspect of human life. Climate change is a global issue and hence Indonesia must equip itself with sufficient national laws and regulations that are easily implemented. Securing funds from the international community is also a strategy to prepare the nation to face climate change. Globalisasi terjadi di setiap aspek kehidupan manusia. Perubahan iklim adalah isu global sehingga Indonesia harus mempersiapkan diri dengan cara menyusun peraturan perundang-undangan...

  13. Peak globalization. Climate change, oil depletion and global trade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curtis, Fred

    2009-01-01

    The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed. (author)

  14. Peak globalization. Climate change, oil depletion and global trade

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curtis, Fred [Department of Economics, Drew University, Madison, NJ 07940 (United States)

    2009-12-15

    The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed. (author)

  15. Climate change impacts on global agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Calzadilla, Alvaro; Rehdanz, Katrin; Betts, Richard; Falloon, Pete; Wiltshire, Andy; Tol, Richard S J

    Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the

  16. Global trends in radiation processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Defalco, Gerry

    2002-01-01

    A global leader in radioisotope technology with three business units: - Nuclear Medicine supplies about two-thirds of the world requirements for molybdenum-99 and other isotopes used to diagnose disease - Radiation Therapy business unit supplied more than over 2,300 cobalt cancer treatment machines and is a leader in treatment planning - Ion Technologies is the world's leading supplier of cobalt 60 and innovative gamma irradiation systems About Ion Technologies · Supply over 70% of world's cobalt-60 sources · Custom-designed and built irradiation systems · Comprehensive engineering, physics, logistics, installation and marketing services · Canadian Irradiation Center for unique 'hands on' training, R and D product irradiation

  17. Global climate change and rangelands

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    While efforts to minimise climate change are vital, some degree of change is already inevitable. The key questions for rangelands are no longer whether climate change will occur, but how to adapt to it, and if possible, how to mitigate its negative impacts. The presentations in this session will move beyond the prediction of ...

  18. Modeling global change impacts on Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kicklighter, D. W.; Monier, E.; Sokolov, A. P.; Zhuang, Q.; Melillo, J. M.; Reilly, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    Northern Eurasia is a major player in the global carbon budget and includes roughly 70% of the Earth's boreal forest and more than two-thirds of the Earth's permafrost. The region has experienced dramatic climate change (increase in temperature, growing season length, floods and droughts), natural disturbances (wildfires and insect outbreaks), and land-use change (timber harvest, urbanization, expansion and abandonment of agricultural lands) over the past century. These large environmental and socioeconomic impacts have major implications for the carbon cycle in the region. Northern Eurasia is made up of a diverse set of ecosystems that range from deserts to forests, with significant areas of croplands, pastures, and urban areas. As such, it represents a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. We provide an overview of past, ongoing and possible future efforts of the integrated modeling of global change for Northern Eurasia. First, we review the variety of existing modeling approaches to investigate specific components of Earth system dynamics in the region. While there are a limited number of studies that try to integrate various aspects of the Earth system through scale, teleconnections or processes, there are few systematic analyses of the various feedbacks among components within the Earth system. As a result, there is a lack of knowledge of the relative importance of such feedbacks, and it is unclear how relevant current studies, which do not account for these feedbacks, may be for policymaking. Next, we review the role of Earth system models, and their advantages/limitations compared to detailed single component models. We further introduce human activity models (e.g., global trade, economic models, demographic models), and the need for Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), a suite of models that couple human activity models to Earth System Models. Finally, we examine emerging issues that require a representation of the coupled

  19. Dynamics of energy technologies and global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grubler, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Victor, D.G.

    1999-01-01

    Technological choices largely determine the long-term characteristics of industrial society, including impacts on the natural environment. However, the treatment of technology in existing models that are used to project economic and environmental futures remains highly stylized. Based on work over two decades at IIASA, we present a useful typology for technology analysis and discuss methods that can be used to analyze the impact of technological changes on the global environment, especially global warming. Our focus is energy technologies, the main source of many atmospheric environmental problems. We show that much improved treatment of technology is possible with a combination of historical analysis and new modeling techniques. In the historical record, we identify characteristic 'learning rates' that allow simple quantified characterization of the improvement in cost and performance due to cumulative experience and investments. We also identify patterns, processes and timescales that typify the diffusion of new technologies in competitive markets. Technologies that are long-lived and are components of interlocking networks typically require the longest time to diffuse and co-evolve with other technologies in the network; such network effects yield high barriers to entry even for superior competitors. These simple observations allow three improvements to modeling of technological change and its consequences for global environmental change. One is that the replacement of long-lived infrastructures over time has also replaced the fuels that power the economy to yield progressively more energy per unit of carbon pollution - from coal to oil to gas. Such replacement has 'decarbonized' the global primary energy supply 0.3% per year. In contrast, most baseline projections for emissions of carbon, the chief cause of global warming, ignore this robust historical trend and show Iittle or no decarbonization. A second improvement is that by incorporating learning curves and

  20. Global Climate Change as Environmental Megacrisis

    OpenAIRE

    Endter-Wada, Joanna; Ingram, Helen

    2012-01-01

    The authors analyze global climate change utilizing insights from the governance and crisis management literatures that seek to understand the prospects, nature, characteristics and the effects of cataclysmic events. They argue that global climate change is a mega-crisis hiding in plain sight yet there has been no proportionate mega-crisis response. People are still grappling with how to make sense of climate change, how to bridge multiple ways of knowing it, and how to negotiate collective c...

  1. Global climate change and life on earth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wyman, R.L. (ed.)

    1991-01-01

    The main theme of the conference was the consequence for life of the greenhouse effect and global climate change. Information on climate change is integrated with information on overpopulation, air pollution, ozone depletion species extinction, and habitat destruction. Descriptions are given of global climate change and the environmental changes that may be associated with it. The evidence for climate change is presented and general circulation models are described. Information provided by the GCMs to predict what the consequences may be, is used. The final chapters deal with the direct impacts of climate change on human beings and on policy response that are needed to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

  2. EFFECTS OF THE PROCESS OF GLOBALIZATION UPON THE COMPANY

    OpenAIRE

    Cristina Rodica Gradea

    2011-01-01

    Globalization is not a new phenomenon, "the companies" being always connected to each other, to varying degrees. The process of economic globalization is an objective and necessary to know the many stages and forms, from simple to more complex ones, including the organization of supra-national integration tools. The phenomenon of globalization is marked by an integration of the economies of various countries, which changes the entire quality of the various scaffold structures of national econ...

  3. Global image processing operations on parallel architectures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Jon A.

    1990-09-01

    Image processing operations fall into two classes: local and global. Local operations affect only a small corresponding area in the output image, and include edge detection, smoothing, and point operations. In global operations any input pixel can affect any or a large number of output data. Global operations include histogram, image warping, Hough transform, and connected components. Parallel architectures offer a promising method for speeding up these image processing operations. Local operations are easy to parallelize, because the input data can be divided among processors, processed in parallel separately, then the outputs can be combined by concatenation. Global operations are harder to parallelize. In fact, some global operations cannot be executed in parallel; it is possible for a global operation to require serial execution for correct computation of the result. However, an important class of global operations, namely those that are reversible-that can be computed in forward or reverse order on a data structure-can be computed in parallel using a restricted form of divide and conquer called split and merge. These reversible operations include the global operations mentioned above, and many more besides-even such non-image processing operations as parsing, string search, and sorting. The split and merge method will be illustrated by application of it to these algorithms. Performance analysis of the method on different architectures-one-dimensional, two-dimensional, and binary tree processor arrays will be demonstrated.

  4. Export Processing Zones and Global Class Formation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neveling, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    This chapter is concerned with one of the most striking developments in the global political economy of capitalism after the Second World War; the rise of export processing zones and special economic zones. Building on long-term ethnohistorical research on the zones’ global spread from one zone in

  5. Soil bacterial community responses to global changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergmark, Lasse

    -pyrosequencing and qPCR with a range of soil measurements and analyses to provide a better understanding of the drivers in soil microbial communities. The thesis contains a brief introduction where the most important concepts of global change, soil as a habitat, the nitrogen cycle and nitrification are being...... overall importance for ecosystem function in soil is poorly understood. Global change factors may affect the diversity and functioning of soil prokaryotes and thereby ecosystem functioning. To gain a better understanding of the effects of global changes it is of fundamental importance to classify...... the bacterial soil population. The thesis addresses the effects of different global change manipulations on the soil microbial community composition (climate change in Manuscript 1-4 and unconventional urban fertilizers in Manuscript 5-6). A special emphasis was put on combining molecular techniques like 454...

  6. Children in Psychodynamic Psychotherapy: Changes in Global Functioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odhammar, Fredrik; Sundin, Eva C.; Jonson, Mattias; Carlberg, Gunnar

    2011-01-01

    This study was part of the Erica Process and Outcome Study. The aim was to investigate if children's global functioning improves after psychodynamic psychotherapy. Variables that may predict changes in global functioning were examined both statistically and qualitatively, for example, the child's age and gender; diagnosis and comorbidity;…

  7. The US Global Change Data and Information Management Program Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) requires massive quantities of highly diverse data and information to improve our understanding of global change processes. The Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences (CEES) comprises Federal agencies that need to provide reliable data and information for this purpose from existing programs and archives and from new activities designed to improve upon the data and information. This US Global Change Data and Information Management Program Plan commits the participating Federal agencies to work with each other, with academia, and with the international community to make it as easy as possible for researchers and others to access and use global change data and information. Toward this end, the agencies are organizing a Global Change Data and Information System (GCDIS), which takes advantage of the mission resources and responsibilities of each agency. Sources for global change data and information are national and international agency programs, including those focused on the USGCRP, such as NASA's Earth Observing System [EOS] and other agency global change initiatives and those contributing to the USGCRP from other agency programs not focused on global change. Data and information include raw data from observation systems, value-added data from data assembly activities, and derived data and information from models and other investigations. Additional data and information are identified from appropriate sources including academia and the international community

  8. Global climate change has already begun

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinclair, J.

    1991-01-01

    Global warning and climate change is now evident around the planet. Six of the eight warmest years on record occurred in the 1980s, while 1990 was the hottest year on record. The global imbalances seem set to worsen unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced and restoration of the earth's forests is begun

  9. Global change in wilderness areas: disentangling natural and anthropogenic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lisa J. Graumlich

    2000-01-01

    Human impacts on the Earth’s ecosystems are globally pervasive. Wilderness areas, although largely protected from direct human impact at local scales, nevertheless are subject to global changes in atmospheric composition, climate and biodiversity. Research in wilderness areas plays a critical role in disentangling natural and anthropogenic changes in ecosystems by...

  10. Biodiversity and global change. Adaptative responses to global change: results and prospective. IFB-GICC restitution colloquium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Despres, L.; Hossaert-Mckey, M.; Martin, J.F.; Pont, D.; Valero, M.; Chave, J.; Benizri, E.; Amiaud, B.; Boury-Esnault, N.; Fritz, H.; Lavelle, P.; Martin, F.; Poulet, S.; Blanchard, F.; Cheddadi, R.; Dupouey, J.L.; Hulle, M.; Michaux, J.; Souissi, S.; Bridault, A.; Dambrine, E.; Gomez, B.; Thevenard, F.; Legendre, S.; Suc, J.P.; Zeitoun, V.; Bezancon, G.; Frascaria-Lacoste, N.; Ponsard, S.; Bourguet, D.; Vigne, J.D.; Doyen, L.; Joly, P.; Gourlet-Fleury, S.; Garnier, E.; Lebaron, Ph.; Boulinier, Th.; Chuine, I.; Jiguet, F.; Couvet, D.; Soussana, J.F.; Weimerskirsch, H.; Grosbois, V.; Bretagnolle, V.

    2006-01-01

    Global change is the consequence of the worldwide human print on ecology. The uncontrolled use of fossil fuels, the urbanization, the intensifying of agriculture, the homogenization of life styles and cultures, the homogenization of fauna and vegetation, the commercial trades, the bio-invasions, the over-exploitation of resources and the emergence of new economic powers (China, India, Brazil..) represent an adaptative dynamics of interactions which affects the overall biosphere and the adaptative capacities and the future of all species. Biodiversity is an ecological and societal insurance against the risks and uncertainties linked with global change. The French institute of biodiversity (IFB) has created a working group in charge of a study on global change and biodiversity, in particular in terms of: speed and acceleration of processes, interaction between the different organization levels of the world of living, scale changes, and adaptative capacities. 38 projects with an interdisciplinary approach have been retained by the IFB and the Ministry of ecology and sustainable development. The conclusion of these projects were presented at this restitution colloquium and are summarized in this document. The presentations are organized in 7 sessions dealing with: global changes and adaptation mechanisms; functional responses to global changes; spatial responses to global changes; temporal responses to global changes; selective answers to global changes; available tools and ecological services; scenarios and projections. (J.S.)

  11. How social structure changes in Chinese global cities: Synthesizing globalization, migration and institutional factors in Beijing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shi, Q.; Liu, T.; Musterd, S.; Cao, G.

    2017-01-01

    Recent studies on the social structural change in global cities have recognized globalization, migration, and institutional factors as three main forces underlying this process. However, effects of these factors have rarely been synthetically examined and the social structure of emerging Chinese

  12. Inadvertent weather modification urban areas - lessons for global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changnon, S.A.

    1992-01-01

    Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the USA's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multidisciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioural implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally

  13. Global simulations of aerosol processing in clouds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Hoose

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available An explicit and detailed representation of in-droplet and in-crystal aerosol particles in stratiform clouds has been introduced in the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM. The new scheme allows an evaluation of the cloud cycling of aerosols and an estimation of the relative contributions of nucleation and collision scavenging, as opposed to evaporation of hydrometeors in the global aerosol processing by clouds. On average an aerosol particle is cycled through stratiform clouds 0.5 times. The new scheme leads to important changes in the simulated fraction of aerosol scavenged in clouds, and consequently in the aerosol wet deposition. In general, less aerosol is scavenged into clouds with the new prognostic treatment than what is prescribed in standard ECHAM5-HAM. Aerosol concentrations, size distributions, scavenged fractions and cloud droplet concentrations are evaluated and compared to different observations. While the scavenged fraction and the aerosol number concentrations in the marine boundary layer are well represented in the new model, aerosol optical thickness, cloud droplet number concentrations in the marine boundary layer and the aerosol volume in the accumulation and coarse modes over the oceans are overestimated. Sensitivity studies suggest that a better representation of below-cloud scavenging, higher in-cloud collision coefficients, or a reduced water uptake by seasalt aerosols could reduce these biases.

  14. Global perceptions of local temperature change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, Peter D.; Markowitz, Ezra M.; Lee, Tien Ming; Ko, Chia-Ying; Leiserowitz, Anthony

    2013-04-01

    It is difficult to detect global warming directly because most people experience changes only in local weather patterns, which are highly variable and may not reflect long-term global climate trends. However, local climate-change experience may play an important role in adaptation and mitigation behaviour and policy support. Previous research indicates that people can perceive and adapt to aspects of climate variability and change based on personal observations. Experience with local weather may also influence global warming beliefs. Here we examine the extent to which respondents in 89 countries detect recent changes in average local temperatures. We demonstrate that public perceptions correspond with patterns of observed temperature change from climate records: individuals who live in places with rising average temperatures are more likely than others to perceive local warming. As global climate change intensifies, changes in local temperatures and weather patterns may be increasingly detected by the global public. These findings also suggest that public opinion of climate change may shift, at least in part, in response to the personal experience of climate change.

  15. The global change challenge: a regional perspective

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, F

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In this presentation the author presents the most recent projections of future climate change over southern Africa, based on high-resolution downscalings of the global model projections of Assessment Reports Four and Five of the Intergovernmental...

  16. Global precipitations and climate change. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desbois, M.; Desalmand, F.

    1994-01-01

    The workshop reviewed the present status of knowledge concerning the past and present evolution of the distribution of precipitations at global scale, related to climate evolution at different time scales. This review was intended to assess the availability and quality of data which could help, through validation and initialization of model studies, to improve our understanding of the processes determining these precipitation changes. On another hand, the modelling specialists presented their actual use of precipitation data. Exchanges of views between the modelling and observing communities were thus made possible, leading to a set of recommendations for future studies. Sessions were then devoted to specific themes: 1) Paleoclimatology, 2) data collection, history and statistics, programmes, 3) methodologies and accuracy of large scale estimation of precipitation from conventional data, 4) estimation of precipitation from satellite data, 5) modelling studies. (orig.)

  17. Globalization and Climate Change Regulations in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda Yanti Sulistiawati

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Globalization is rampant in every aspect of human life. Climate change is a global issue and hence Indonesia must equip itself with sufficient national laws and regulations that are easily implemented. Securing funds from the international community is also a strategy to prepare the nation to face climate change. Globalisasi terjadi di setiap aspek kehidupan manusia. Perubahan iklim adalah isu global sehingga Indonesia harus mempersiapkan diri dengan cara menyusun peraturan perundang-undangan nasional yang dapat diterapkan dengan mudah. Mendapatkan dana bantuan internasional juga merupakan strategi yang dapat diambil untuk mempersiapkan diri menghadapi perubahan iklim.

  18. USGCRP's Geocuration of Global Change Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfe, R. E.; Duggan, B.; Aulenbach, S.; Goldstein, J.; Newman, B.; Akamine, B.

    2015-12-01

    The U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP's) developed the Global Change Information System (GCIS) to provide specialists and the general public with accessible and usable global change information. GCIS focus is on the cross-cutting theme of Global Change Information that is spread across federal government repositories and the broader research community. An open source web-based resource, the GCIS provides human and programmable interfaces, relational and semantic representations of information, and discrete identifiers for various resources. GCIS's capabilities demonstrated with the release of the NCA have been extended to support a set of USGCRP Global Change Indicators and will support future USGCRP scientific reports and assessments such as the Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health: A Scientific Assessment. GCIS provides named sources and contacts for figures, images and data sources, with the provenance continuing to the platforms and instruments or other observations on which the these documents are based. The GCIS team has been working with the U. S. Climate Data and Tools (CDAT) teams to demonstrate that by extending the GCIS ontology links can be provided between assessments, data and tools, as well as, help curate climate sub-themes such as those focused on a specific societal benefit area (e.g. health) or region (e.g. Arctic).

  19. A process model of global purchasing

    OpenAIRE

    MATTHYSSENS, Paul; QUINTENS, Lieven; FAES, Wouter

    2003-01-01

    Inward internationalisation has received more and more attention in recent literature. This article contributes to this developing domain by providing a holistic description of the underlying processes of global purchasing. By means of case study research, carried out in eight companies, drivers and inhibitors of globalisation are highlighted. Conditions that could make global purchasing more efficient and effective are suggested. Attention is drawn to key factors on which companies strategie...

  20. International business and global climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pinkse, J.; Kolk, A.

    2008-01-01

    Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and

  1. Soil fungal community responses to global changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haugwitz, Merian Skouw

    Global change will affect the functioning and structure of terrestrial ecosystems and since soil fungi are key players in organic matter decomposition and nutrient turnover, shifts in fungal community composition might have a strong impact on soil functioning. The main focus of this thesis...... was therefore to investigate the impact of global environmental changes on soil fungal communities in a temperate and subartic heath ecosystem. The objective was further to determine global change effects on major functional groups of fungi and analyze the influence of fungal community changes on soil carbon...... and nutrient availability and storage. By combining molecular methods such as 454 pyrosequencing and quantitative PCR of fungal ITS amplicons with analyses of soil enzymes, nutrient pools of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus we were able to characterize soil fungal communities as well as their impact on nutrient...

  2. Cross-scale modelling of the climate-change mitigation potential of biochar systems: Global implications of nano-scale processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolf, Dominic; Lehmann, Johannes

    2014-05-01

    With CO2 emissions still tracking the upper bounds of projected emissions scenarios, it is becoming increasingly urgent to reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and increasingly likely that restricting future atmospheric GHG concentrations to within safe limits will require an eventual transition towards net negative GHG emissions. Few measures capable of providing negative emissions at a globally-significant scale are currently known. Two that are most often considered include carbon sequestration in biomass and soil, and biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). In common with these two approaches, biochar also relies on the use of photosynthetically-bound carbon in biomass. But, because biomass and land are limited, it is critical that these resources are efficiently allocated between biomass/soil sequestration, bioenergy, BECCS, biochar, and other competing uses such as food, fiber and biodiversity. In many situations, biochar can offer advantages that may make it the preferred use of a limited biomass supply. These advantages include that: 1) Biochar can provide valuable benefits to agriculture by improving soil fertility and crop production, and reducing fertlizer and irrigation requirements. 2) Biochar is significantly more stable than biomass or other forms of soil carbon, thus lowering the risk of future losses compared to sequestration in biomass or soil organic carbon. 3) Gases and volatiles produced by pyrolysis can be combusted for energy (which may offset fossil fuel emissions). 4) Biochar can further lower GHG emissions by reducing nitrous oxide emissions from soil and by enhancing net primary production. Determining the optimal use of biomass requires that we are able to model not only the climate-change mitigation impact of each option, but also their economic and wider environmental impacts. Thus, what is required is a systems modelling approach that integrates components representing soil biogeochemistry, hydrology, crop

  3. Global Deliberative Democracy and Climate Change: Insights from World Wide Views on Global Warming in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Riedy

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available On 26 September 2009, approximately 4,000 citizens in 38 countries participated in World Wide Views on Global Warming (WWViews. WWViews was an ambitious first attempt to convene a deliberative mini-public at a global scale, giving people from around the world an opportunity to deliberate on international climate policy and to make recommendations to the decision-makers meeting at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (COP-15 in December 2009. In this paper, we examine the role that deliberative mini-publics can play in facilitating the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response. We pursue this intent through a reflective evaluation of the Australian component of the World Wide Views on Global Warming project (WWViews. Our evaluation of WWViews is mixed. The Australian event was delivered with integrity and feedback from Australian participants was almost universally positive. Globally, WWViews demonstrated that it is feasible to convene a global mini-public to deliberate on issues of global relevance, such as climate change. On the other hand, the contribution of WWViews towards the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response was limited and it achieved little influence on global climate change policy. We identify lessons for future global mini-publics, including the need to prioritise the quality of deliberation and provide flexibility to respond to cultural and political contexts in different parts of the world. Future global mini-publics may be more influential if they seek to represent discourse diversity in addition to demographic profiles, use designs that maximise the potential for transmission from public to empowered space, run over longer time periods to build momentum for change and experiment with ways of bringing global citizens together in a single process instead of discrete national events.

  4. Climate change and global warming potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vate, J.F. van de

    1996-01-01

    Climate change and the global budgets of the two main energy consumption related greenhouse gases, CO 2 and CH 4 , are discussed. The global warming potential (GWP) of the non-CO 2 greenhouse gases is defined and the large range of GWPs of CH 4 in the literature is discussed. GWPs are expected to play an important role in energy policies and negotiations concerning lowering greenhouse gas emissions. (author). 20 refs, 4 figs, 4 tabs

  5. Global change and terrestrial hydrology - A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Robert E.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reviews the role of terrestrial hydrology in determining the coupling between the surface and atmosphere. Present experience with interactive numerical simulation is discussed and approaches to the inclusion of land hydrology in global climate models ae considered. At present, a wide range of answers as to expected changes in surface hydrology is given by nominally similar models. Studies of the effects of tropical deforestation and global warming illustrate this point.

  6. How Will Climate Change Affect Globalization?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dilyard, John Raymond; Bals, Lydia; Zhuplev, Anatoly

    2011-01-01

    Whether it is caused totally by human activity, the Earth’s own natural cycles, or a combination of the two, climate change is a fact. Some changes – melting polar ice, thawing of the tundra, increasing average temperature – already are being felt, and others will manifest themselves in the next...... few decades. Because climate change itself will have a profound effect on where food is grown, what food is grown, and where people live, and because addressing the impact climate change have an effect on the way resources – natural, human, corporate, financial – are accessed and mobilized......, it will effect globalization. Businesses, if they want to be sustained, will have to adjust to climate change. This panel will examine two topics within which the relationship between climate change and globalization can be assessed - the sourcing of resources and services when the location of those resources...

  7. Global climate change and international security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  8. National Security and Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    and jobs needed by large urban populations. Climate change does not respect politi- cal borders. People may be forced to move across those boundaries...make the world safer from climate change . Effective mitigation could help clean the environment and eliminate oil depen- dency. Building resiliency...global climate change (GCC) often paralyze serious discussion by polar- izing decisionmakers and the public into camps of “believers” and “skeptics

  9. Climate change and global infectious disease threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, E K

    The world's climate is warming up and, while debate continues about how much change we can expect, it is becoming clear that even small changes in climate can have major effects on the spread of disease. Erwin K Jackson, a member of Greenpeace International's Climate Impacts Unit and a delegate to the 11th session of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Rome, 11-15 December), reviews the scientific evidence of this new global threat to health.

  10. Climate change and the global malaria recession.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gething, Peter W; Smith, David L; Patil, Anand P; Tatem, Andrew J; Snow, Robert W; Hay, Simon I

    2010-05-20

    The current and potential future impact of climate change on malaria is of major public health interest. The proposed effects of rising global temperatures on the future spread and intensification of the disease, and on existing malaria morbidity and mortality rates, substantively influence global health policy. The contemporary spatial limits of Plasmodium falciparum malaria and its endemicity within this range, when compared with comparable historical maps, offer unique insights into the changing global epidemiology of malaria over the last century. It has long been known that the range of malaria has contracted through a century of economic development and disease control. Here, for the first time, we quantify this contraction and the global decreases in malaria endemicity since approximately 1900. We compare the magnitude of these changes to the size of effects on malaria endemicity proposed under future climate scenarios and associated with widely used public health interventions. Our findings have two key and often ignored implications with respect to climate change and malaria. First, widespread claims that rising mean temperatures have already led to increases in worldwide malaria morbidity and mortality are largely at odds with observed decreasing global trends in both its endemicity and geographic extent. Second, the proposed future effects of rising temperatures on endemicity are at least one order of magnitude smaller than changes observed since about 1900 and up to two orders of magnitude smaller than those that can be achieved by the effective scale-up of key control measures. Predictions of an intensification of malaria in a warmer world, based on extrapolated empirical relationships or biological mechanisms, must be set against a context of a century of warming that has seen marked global declines in the disease and a substantial weakening of the global correlation between malaria endemicity and climate.

  11. Clean coal technologies and global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long, R.S.

    1993-01-01

    The role for Clean Coal Technologies is discussed in the context of the global climate change debate. Global climate change is, of course as the name implies, a global issue. This clearly distinguishes this issue from acid rain or ozone non-attainment, which are regional in nature. Therefore, the issue requires a global perspective, one that looks at the issue not just from a US policy standpoint but from an international policy view. This includes the positions of other individual nations, trading blocks, common interest groups, and the evolving United Nations bureaucracy. It is assumed that as the global economy continues to grow, energy demand will also grow. With growth in economic activity and energy use, will come growth in worldwide greenhouse gas emissions, including growth in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Much of this growth will occur in developing economies which intend to fuel their growth with coal-fired power, especially China and India. Two basic premises which set out the boundaries of this topic are presented. First, there is the premise that global climate change is occurring, or is about to occur, and that governments must do something to mitigate the causes of climate change. Although this premise is highly rebuttable, and not based on scientific certainty, political science has driven it to the forefront of the debate. Second is the premise that advanced combustion CCTs, with their higher efficiencies, will result in lower CO 2 emissions, and hence lessen any contribution of greater coal use to potential global climate change. This promise is demonstrably true. This discussion focuses on recent and emerging public sector policy actions, which may in large part establish a new framework in which the private sector will find new challenges and new opportunities

  12. Romanian Insurance Market Facing Globalization Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dumitru G. Badea

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available The Romanian insurance market has passed through a permanent process of growth which ended up in 2004 to exceed the threshold of 1 billion Euros, in the frame of a small awareness and confidence of the population towards insurance, even now after 15 years. The globalization process of the financial markets affected also the Romanian market even before Romania became member of the European Union. The globalization brought about benefits (especially under the form of increase in the quality of the services provided to clients but also disadvantages for local companies (significant costs in logistics and training in order to cope with the international groups.

  13. Global change integrating factors: Tropical tropopause trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reck, R.A.

    1994-01-01

    This research proposes new criteria, shifts in the height and temperature of the tropical tropopause, as measures of global climate change. The search for signs of global warming in the temperature signal near the earth's surface is extremely difficult, largely because numerous factors contribute to surface temperature forcing with only a small signal-to-noise ratio relative to long-term effects. In the long term, no part of the atmosphere can be considered individually because the evolution will be a function of all states of all portions. A large surface greenhouse signal might ultimately be expected, but the analysis of surface temperature may not be particularly useful for early detection. What is suggested here is not an analysis of trends in the surface temperature field or any of its spatial averages, but rather an integrating factor or integrator, a single measure of global change that could be considered a test of significant change for the entire global system. Preferably, this global change integrator would vary slowly and would take into account many of the causes of climate change, with a relatively large signal-to-noise ratio. Such an integrator could be monitored, and abrupt or accelerated changes could serve as an early warning signal for policy makers and the public. Earlier work has suggested that temperature has much less short-term and small-scale noise in the lower stratosphere, and thus the global warming signal at that level might be more easily deconvoluted, because the cooling rate near the 200-mb level is almost constant with latitude. A study of the temperature signal at this pressure level might show a clearer trend due to increased levels of greenhouse gases, but it would yield information about the troposphere only by inference

  14. Global climate change and California's natural ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botkin, D.B.; Nisbet, R.A.; Woodhouse, C.; Ferren, W.; Bicknell, S.; Bentley, B.

    1991-01-01

    If projections of global climate models are correct, the natural ecosystems of California might undergo major changes during the next century. Such changes might include large economic losses in timber, fisheries, and recreation; major changes in our national and state parks and forests and in our nature preserves and conservation areas; increase in extinction of endangered species; loss of large areas of existing habitats; and development of new habitats whose location and areal extent can only be surmised. Many areas currently set aside for the conservation of specific ecosystems might no longer be suitable to them. Yet, in spite of the potential seriousness of these problems, which could dwarf all other environmental changes, California is at present in a poor situation to project what the effects of global change on its natural ecosystems might be

  15. Open access: changing global science publishing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasparyan, Armen Yuri; Ayvazyan, Lilit; Kitas, George D

    2013-08-01

    The article reflects on open access as a strategy of changing the quality of science communication globally. Successful examples of open-access journals are presented to highlight implications of archiving in open digital repositories for the quality and citability of research output. Advantages and downsides of gold, green, and hybrid models of open access operating in diverse scientific environments are described. It is assumed that open access is a global trend which influences the workflow in scholarly journals, changing their quality, credibility, and indexability.

  16. Deep solar minimum and global climate changes

    OpenAIRE

    Hady, Ahmed A.

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the deep minimum of solar cycle 23 and its potential impact on climate change. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the solar cycle 23, the deepest during the last 500 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activity are so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. Prevalent global warming, caused by building-up of green-house gases in the trop...

  17. Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.

    2011-12-01

    In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region

  18. Global climate change and California's water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaux, H.J. Jr.

    1991-01-01

    This chapter records the deliberations of a group of California water experts about answers to these and other questions related to the impact of global warming on California's water resources. For the most part, those participating in the deliberations believe that the current state of scientific knowledge about global warming and its impacts on water resources is insufficient to permit hard distinctions to be made between short- and long-term changes. consequently, the ideas discussed here are based on a number of assumptions about specific climatic manifestations of global warming in California, as described earlier in this volume. Ultimately, however, effective public responses to forestall the potentially costly impacts of global climate change will probably depend upon the credible validation of the prospects of global climate warming. This chapter contains several sections. First, the likely effects of global warming on California's water resources and water-supply systems are identified and analyzed. Second, possible responses to mitigate these effects are enumerated and discussed. Third, the major policy issues are identified. A final section lists recommendations for action and major needs for information

  19. Global change researchers assess projections of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, Eric J.

    In October 1994 climate researchers met at the Forum on Global Change Modeling to create a consensus document summarizing the debate on issues related to the use of climate models to influence policy. The charge to the Forum was to develop a brief statement on the credibility of projections of climate change provided by General Circulation Models. The Forum focused specifically on the climate aspects of the entire global change issue, not on emission scenarios, the consequences of change to ecosystems and natural resource systems, or the socio-economic implications and potential for responses.The Forum report put thoughts on this often divisive issue into perspective for use by the Government Accounting Office in developing and considering national policy options. The forum was organized in response to requests from the White House Office of Science and Technology by the Subcommitteeon Global Change Research, abranch of the new Committee on Earth and Natural Resources set up by the Clinton administration.

  20. A global change policy for Alaska

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cole, H.

    1993-01-01

    The Alaska Science and Engineering Advisory Committee attempted to formulate a suitable state policy for global climate change. The main elements and rationale for this policy are described, along with lessons learned from the Montreal protocol on global ozone and the policy itself. A discussion of issues relating to public presentation and reaction to a climate change policy indicates that elements necessary for a strategy presenting a case for global change needs to be credible, simple, and unambiguous, with risks clearly defined. Society and business must see themselves as stakeholders in the issue, and policies must be formulated accordingly. The Montreal protocol provides an example of success in advanced planning on a major global issue. The six main components of the Alaskan policy relate to fossil fuel production and marketing, the economic mix of energy production for in-state use, the efficiency and effectiveness of energy end-use services, the impact of climatic change on Alaska as a geographic unit, Alaska as a high-latitude site for climate change monitoring and analysis, and Alaskan participation with other countries in research and policy development. 7 refs

  1. Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

    2002-01-01

    The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors

  2. Global climate change and infectious diseases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shope, R. (Yale Univ. School of Medicine, New Haven, CT (United States))

    1991-12-01

    The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in North America. Vibrio cholera is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years, cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe, Africa, and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help as to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed. 12 refs., 1 tab.

  3. A dissenting view on global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linden, H.R.

    1993-01-01

    Global warming alarmists are vastly overstating the risks of climate change, often to further other agendas. The science of global warming simply does not support their claims of impending doom - as policy makers would be wise to note. There is scientific consensus on the existence of a benign natural greenhouse effect that keeps the Earth habitable by raising its average surface temperature by about 33 degrees C. Global warming alarmists, however, have falsely claimed that this consensus also extends to the belief that human activity is significantly enhancing this effect. This is simply untrue. Based on a wealth of new information, there is now strong and rapidly growing scientific dissent on the inevitability of catastrophic and even mildly detrimental anthropogenic climate change. This casts serious doubts on the need for binding international agreements to curtail emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion, or to limit conversion of tropical forests to agricultural uses in areas where increased food supply is a critical issue

  4. Biological consequences of global change for birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Møller, Anders Pape

    2013-06-01

    Climate is currently changing at an unprecedented rate; so also human exploitation is rapidly changing the Earth for agriculture, forestry, fisheries and urbanization. In addition, pollution has affected even the most remote ecosystems, as has the omnipresence of humans, with consequences in particular for animals that keep a safe distance from potential predators, including human beings. Importantly, all of these changes are occurring simultaneously, with increasing intensity, and further deterioration in both the short and the long-term is predicted. While the consequences of these components of global change are relatively well studied on their own, the effects of their interactions, such as the combined effects of climate change and agriculture, or the combined effects of agriculture through nutrient leakage to freshwater and marine ecosystems and fisheries, and the effects of climate change and urbanization, are poorly understood. Here, I provide a brief overview of the effects of climate change on phenology, diversity, abundance, interspecific interactions and population dynamics of birds. I address whether these effects of changing temperatures are direct, or indirect through effects of climate change on the phenology, distribution or abundance of food, parasites and predators. Finally, I review interactions between different components of global change. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

  5. Management of Organizational Change Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir-Codrin Ionescu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Contemporary organizations need to understand the meaning of change and to tackle it as a source for improving processes and activities, aiming at increasing the performance and competitiveness. From this perspective, the paper presents approaches to organizational change and highlights the fundamental objectives which the organizations set for themselves by designing and implementing organizational change programs. The conceptual framework of the change management is defined and the stages of the change management process are presented. In the final part of the paper the problem of resistance to change is highlighted by explaining the content of the stages that employees go through in the process of adapting to change within organizations

  6. Global Environmental Change : Understanding the Human Dimensions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Stern, Paul C; Druckman, Daniel; Young, Oran R; National Research Council; National Academy of Sciences; Stern, Paul C; Druckman, Daniel

    ... on the Human Dimensions of Global Change Commission on the Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1992 Copyrightthe cannot be not from book, paper however, version for formatting, original authoritative the typesetting-specific the as from created publication files ...

  7. Climate change impact on global potato production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Raymundo, Rubí; Asseng, Senthold; Robertson, Richard; Petsakos, Athanasios; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Quiroz, Roberto; Hareau, Guy; Wolf, Joost

    2017-01-01

    Potato is the most important non-grain crop in the world. Therefore, understanding the potential impacts of climate change on potato production is critical for future global food security. The SUBSTOR-Potato model was recently evaluated across a wide range of growing conditions, and improvements

  8. Global environmental change: understanding the human dimensions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Stern, Paul C; Young, Oran R; Druckman, Daniel

    ... on the Human Dimensions of Global Change Commission on the Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1992 Copyrightthe cannot be not from book, paper however, version for formatting, original authoritative the typesetting-specific the as from created publication files ...

  9. Global Change in the Upper Atmosphere

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Laštovička, Jan; Akmaev, R. A.; Beig, G.; Bremer, J.; Emmert, J. T.

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 314, č. 5803 (2006), s. 1253-1254 ISSN 0036-8075 R&D Projects: GA MŠk OC 091 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Global change * Upper Atmosphere * Ionosphere Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 30.028, year: 2006

  10. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-01-01

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs

  11. The global land rush and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Kyle Frankel; Rulli, Maria Cristina; D'Odorico, Paolo

    2015-08-01

    Climate change poses a serious global challenge in the face of rapidly increasing human demand for energy and food. A recent phenomenon in which climate change may play an important role is the acquisition of large tracts of land in the developing world by governments and corporations. In the target countries, where land is relatively inexpensive, the potential to increase crop yields is generally high and property rights are often poorly defined. By acquiring land, investors can realize large profits and countries can substantially alter the land and water resources under their control, thereby changing their outlook for meeting future demand. While the drivers, actors, and impacts involved with land deals have received substantial attention in the literature, we propose that climate change plays an important yet underappreciated role, both through its direct effects on agricultural production and through its influence on mitigative or adaptive policy decisions. Drawing from various literature sources as well as a new global database on reported land deals, we trace the evolution of the global land rush and highlight prominent examples in which the role of climate change is evident. We find that climate change—both historical and anticipated—interacts substantially with drivers of land acquisitions, having important implications for the resilience of communities in targeted areas. As a result of this synthesis, we ultimately contend that considerations of climate change should be integrated into future policy decisions relating to the large-scale land acquisitions.

  12. Public action in the globalization process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Bucur

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The types of public investments change from a stage to another. The state always had economical objectives, even if these were not so explicit. However, its role of economy manager developed in the postwar period. The intervention systems diversified and their manipulation becomes more and more frequent. The establishment of intervention types and mechanisms must submit to the requirements. The essential problem is not the global reduction of the state investment, but its efficiency increase. In the current age, the characteristics of a public action are conditioned by the effects of globalization on the state sovereignty, power and capacity. At the end of the past century, debates on this subject were the main focus of the mass media and they emphasized some profound dissensions regarding the nature and implications of globalization.

  13. Global warming and climate change: control methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laal, M.; Aliramaie, A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper aimed at finding causes of global warming and ways to bring it under control. Data based on scientific opinion as given by synthesis reports of news, articles, web sites, and books. global warming is the observed and projected increases in average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans. Carbon dioxide and other air pollution that is collecting in the atmosphere like a thickening blanket, trapping the sun's heat and causing the planet to warm up. Pollution is one of the biggest man-made problems. Burning fossil fuels is the main factor of pollution. As average temperature increases, habitats, species and people are threatened by drought, changes in rainfall, altered seasons, and more violent storms and floods. Indeed the life cycle of nuclear power results in relatively little pollution. Energy efficiency, solar, wind and other renewable fuels are other weapons against global warming . Human activity, primarily burning fossil fuels, is the major driving factor in global warming . Curtailing the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by reducing use of oil, gasoline, coal and employment of alternate energy, sources are the tools for keeping global warming under control. global warming can be slowed and stopped, with practical actions thal yield a cleaner, healthier atmosphere

  14. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    OpenAIRE

    B. B. B. Booth; D. Bernie; D. McNeall; E. Hawkins; J. Caesar; C. Boulton; P. Friedlingstein; D. Sexton

    2012-01-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concen...

  15. Aspen Global Change Institute Summer Science Sessions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Katzenberger, John; Kaye, Jack A

    2006-10-01

    The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) successfully organized and convened six interdisciplinary meetings over the course of award NNG04GA21G. The topics of the meetings were consistent with a range of issues, goals and objectives as described within the NASA Earth Science Enterprise Strategic Plan and more broadly by the US Global Change Research Program/Our Changing Planet, the more recent Climate Change Program Strategic Plan and the NSF Pathways report. The meetings were chaired by two or more leaders from within the disciplinary focus of each session. 222 scholars for a total of 1097 participants-days were convened under the auspices of this award. The overall goal of each AGCI session is to further the understanding of Earth system science and global environmental change through interdisciplinary dialog. The format and structure of the meetings allows for presentation by each participant, in-depth discussion by the whole group, and smaller working group and synthesis activities. The size of the group is important in terms of the group dynamics and interaction, and the ability for each participant's work to be adequately presented and discussed within the duration of the meeting, while still allowing time for synthesis

  16. Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahdoot, Samantha; Pacheco, Susan E

    2015-11-01

    Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  17. Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics

    KAUST Repository

    Jeong, Jaehong

    2017-11-28

    Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture the spatial and temporal behavior of these global data sets. Though the geodesic distance is the most natural metric for measuring distance on the surface of a sphere, mathematical limitations have compelled statisticians to use the chordal distance to compute the covariance matrix in many applications instead, which may cause physically unrealistic distortions. Therefore, covariance functions directly defined on a sphere using the geodesic distance are needed. We discuss the issues that arise when dealing with spherical data sets on a global scale and provide references to recent literature. We review the current approaches to building process models on spheres, including the differential operator, the stochastic partial differential equation, the kernel convolution, and the deformation approaches. We illustrate realizations obtained from Gaussian processes with different covariance structures and the use of isotropic and nonstationary covariance models through deformations and geographical indicators for global surface temperature data. To assess the suitability of each method, we compare their log-likelihood values and prediction scores, and we end with a discussion of related research problems.

  18. Impact of Geological Changes on Regional and Global Economies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatiana, Skufina; Peter, Skuf'in; Vera, Samarina; Taisiya, Shatalova; Baranov, Sergey

    2017-04-01

    Periods of geological changes such as super continent cycle (300-500 million years), Wilson's cycles (300-900 million years), magmatic-tectonic cycle (150-200 million years), and cycles with smaller periods (22, 100, 1000 years) lead to a basic contradiction preventing forming methodology of the study of impact of geological changes on the global and regional economies. The reason of this contradiction is the differences of theoretical and methodological aspects of the Earth science and economics such as different time scales and accuracy of geological changes. At the present the geological models cannot provide accurate estimation of time and place where geological changes (strong earthquakes, volcanos) are expected. Places of feature (not next) catastrophic events are the only thing we have known. Thus, it is impossible to use the periodicity to estimate both geological changes and their consequences. Taking into accounts these factors we suggested a collection of concepts for estimating impact of possible geological changes on regional and global economies. We illustrated our approach by example of estimating impact of Tohoku earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 on regional and global economies. Based on this example we concluded that globalization processes increase an impact of geological changes on regional and global levels. The research is supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Projects No. 16-06-00056, 16-32-00019, 16-05-00263A).

  19. Alternative legal and institutional approaches to global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thacher, P.S.

    1991-01-01

    The processes of global change currently under way cannot be dealt with in isolation. Factors linked to environmental quality such as demographic growth, economic interdependence and indebtedness, sociopolitical changes, and others must be managed collectively. In looking at the problems of global change, a central question before us is: How comprehensive should a legal regime be in a world of considerable uncertainty in which everything is interrelated with everything else, and what we do may, or may not be, have irreversible consequences for future generations. This article focuses on the problem of global warming to provide a model approach to the larger issues of global change. This reduces the scope of global change to a manageable but representative class of the problems at issue. The author suggests an approach to stabilize global climate by the end of the next century. However, even within this relatively narrow context of stabilizing the climate, a comprehensive approach is needed to address all heat-trapping gases - not just CO 2 - to ensure that all human activities generating these gases are managed properly, without causing other problems

  20. Globalization and the Changing Epidemiology of Hepatitis A Virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobsen, Kathryn H

    2018-03-02

    Increased economic interdependence, social integration, and other aspects of globalization are contributing to significant changes in hepatitis A epidemiology. Globally, the incidence of hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection is decreasing, the age at midpoint of population immunity (AMPI) is increasing, and the proportion of symptomatic cases is increasing as the average age at infection increases. In low-income countries, HAV remains endemic but improved water and sanitation systems are reducing transmission rates among young children. In high-income countries, most adults remain susceptible to HAV and foodborne outbreaks are becoming more frequent. Middle-income countries have diverse epidemiological profiles, and they play important roles in the global spread of HAV through international trade and travel. Future changes in the epidemiology of hepatitis A will be heavily influenced by globalization processes. Copyright © 2018 Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press; all rights reserved.

  1. Climate change impacts on global food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

    2013-08-02

    Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

  2. Environmental variation and population responses to global change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lawson, Callum R.; Vindenes, Yngvild; Bailey, Liam; van de Pol, Martijn

    2015-01-01

    Species' responses to environmental changes such as global warming are affected not only by trends in mean conditions, but also by natural and human-induced environmental fluctuations. Methods are needed to predict how such environmental variation affects ecological and evolutionary processes, in

  3. Changing roles of academic societies due to globalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehara, Shigeru; Aoki, Shigeki; Honda, Hiroshi

    2016-10-01

    Because of the globalization of environment around the academic society, the expected roles have changed significantly. In this short communication, we present the current situation in our international activities of the Japan Radiological Society, particularly in the academic activities and clinical practice. Establishing and reinforcing international network is one process of their promotion.

  4. SOLVING GLOBAL PROBLEMS USING COLLABORATIVE DESIGN PROCESSES

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lenau, Torben Anker; Mejborn, Christina Okai

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we argue that use of collaborative design processes is a powerful means of bringing together different stakeholders and generating ideas in complex design situations. The collaborative design process was used in a workshop with international participants where the goal was to propose...... new solutions that would help solve the global problem of sanitation. Lack of sanitation is a problem for 42% of the world’s population but it is also a taboo topic that only very few people will engage in. In the one-day workshop participants from very different areas came together and brought...

  5. Changing recruitment capacity in global fish stocks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britten, Gregory L; Dowd, Michael; Worm, Boris

    2016-01-05

    Marine fish and invertebrates are shifting their regional and global distributions in response to climate change, but it is unclear whether their productivity is being affected as well. Here we tested for time-varying trends in biological productivity parameters across 262 fish stocks of 127 species in 39 large marine ecosystems and high-seas areas (hereafter LMEs). This global meta-analysis revealed widespread changes in the relationship between spawning stock size and the production of juvenile offspring (recruitment), suggesting fundamental biological change in fish stock productivity at early life stages. Across regions, we estimate that average recruitment capacity has declined at a rate approximately equal to 3% of the historical maximum per decade. However, we observed large variability among stocks and regions; for example, highly negative trends in the North Atlantic contrast with more neutral patterns in the North Pacific. The extent of biological change in each LME was significantly related to observed changes in phytoplankton chlorophyll concentration and the intensity of historical overfishing in that ecosystem. We conclude that both environmental changes and chronic overfishing have already affected the productive capacity of many stocks at the recruitment stage of the life cycle. These results provide a baseline for ecosystem-based fisheries management and may help adjust expectations for future food production from the oceans.

  6. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #8: OUR CHANGING PLANET: THE FY2000 U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    This edition of Global Change Research News focuses on the publication of the new OurChanging Planet: The FY2000 U.S. Global Change Research Program. This annual report to the Congress was prepared under the auspices ofthe President's National Science and Technology Council. It...

  7. Soil fungal community responses to global changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haugwitz, Merian Skouw

    and nutrient availability and storage. By combining molecular methods such as 454 pyrosequencing and quantitative PCR of fungal ITS amplicons with analyses of soil enzymes, nutrient pools of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus we were able to characterize soil fungal communities as well as their impact on nutrient...... storage in both a shorter and longer term global change experiment. Extended drought at the dry, temperate heath showed that soil fungi were well adapted to dry conditions. Furthermore, soil fungal communities responded significantly to seasonal fluctuations at the temperate heath, but despite large......Global change will affect the functioning and structure of terrestrial ecosystems and since soil fungi are key players in organic matter decomposition and nutrient turnover, shifts in fungal community composition might have a strong impact on soil functioning. The main focus of this thesis...

  8. Health effects of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghauri, B.; Salam, M.; Mirza I.

    1992-01-01

    This paper identifies potential health problems that may arise from global climates changes caused by increasing green house gases and depletion in the ozone layer. The mankind is responsible for saving or destroying the environment. There are many forms which can pollute the environment like greenhouse activities. The greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane and ozone etc. cause pollutants in the environment. (A.B.)

  9. National Institute for Global Environmental Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werth, G.C.

    1992-04-01

    This document is the Semi-Annual Report of the National Institute for Global Environmental Change for the reporting period July 1 to December 31, 1991. The report is in two parts. Part I presents the mission of the Institute, examples of progress toward that mission, a brief description of the revised management plan, and the financial report. Part II presents the statements of the Regional Center Directors along with progress reports of the projects written by the researchers themselves.

  10. National Institute for Global Environmental Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Werth, G.C.

    1992-01-01

    This document is the Semi-Annual Report of the National Institute for Global Environmental Change for the reporting period July 1 to December 31, 1991. The report is in two parts. Part I presents the mission of the Institute, examples of progress toward that mission, a brief description of the revised management plan, and the financial report. Part II presents the statements of the Regional Center Directors along with progress reports of the projects written by the researchers themselves

  11. Problem free nuclear power and global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teller, E.; Wood, L.; Nuckolls, J.; Ishikawa, M.; Hyde, R.

    1997-01-01

    Nuclear fission power reactors represent a solution-in-principle to all aspects of global change possibly induced by inputting of either particulate or carbon or sulfur oxides into the Earth's atmosphere. Of proven technological feasibility, they presently produce high- grade heat for electricity generation, space heating and industrial process-driving around the world, without emitting greenhouse gases or atmospheric particulates. However, a substantial number of major issues currently stand between nuclear power implemented with light- water reactors and widespread substitution for large stationary fossil fuel-fired systems, including long-term fuel supply, adverse public perceptions regarding both long-term and acute operational safety, plant decommissioning, fuel reprocessing, radwaste disposal, fissile materials diversion to military purposes and - perhaps more seriously - cost. We describe a GW-scale, high-temperature nuclear reactor heat source that can operate with no human intervention for a few decades and that may be widely acceptable, since its safety features are simple, inexpensive and easily understood. We provide first-level details of a reactor system designed to satisfy these requirements. Such a back-solving approach to realizing large-scale nuclear fission power systems potentially leads to an energy source capable of meeting all large-scale stationary demands for high- temperature heat. If widely employed to support such demands, it could, for example, directly reduce present-day world-wide CO 2 emissions by two-fold; by using it to produce non-carbonaceous fuels for small mobile demands, a second two-fold reduction could be attained. Even the first such reduction would permit continued slow power-demand growth in the First World and rapid development of the Third World, both without any governmental suppression of fossil fuel usage

  12. Global climate change: the quantifiable sustainability challenge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Princiotta, Frank T; Loughlin, Daniel H

    2014-09-01

    Population growth and the pressures spawned by increasing demands for energy and resource-intensive goods, foods, and services are driving unsustainable growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recent GHG emission trends are consistent with worst-case scenarios of the previous decade. Dramatic and near-term emission reductions likely will be needed to ameliorate the potential deleterious impacts of climate change. To achieve such reductions, fundamental changes are required in the way that energy is generated and used. New technologies must be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear and transportation technologies are particularly important; however, global research and development efforts related to these technologies currently appear to fall short relative to needs. Even with a proactive and international mitigation effort, humanity will need to adapt to climate change, but the adaptation needs and damages will be far greater if mitigation activities are not pursued in earnest. In this review, research is highlighted that indicates increasing global and regional temperatures and ties climate changes to increasing GHG emissions. GHG mitigation targets necessary for limiting future global temperature increases are discussed, including how factors such as population growth and the growing energy intensity of the developing world will make these reduction targets more challenging. Potential technological pathways for meeting emission reduction targets are examined, barriers are discussed, and global and US. modeling results are presented that suggest that the necessary pathways will require radically transformed electric and mobile sectors. While geoengineering options have been proposed to allow more time for serious emission reductions, these measures are at the conceptual stage with many unanswered cost, environmental, and political issues. Implications: This paper lays out the case that mitigating the

  13. Integrating scientific, economic, and ecological aspects of global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacoby, H.D.; Yang, Z.

    1994-01-01

    The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is conducting research on methods for integrating the science of potential global change with economic analysis of litigation policies and quantification of economic and environmental impacts. The paper describes this work, with a focus on the way that research within the various contributing disciplines, and the design of their associated models, are influenced by the process of inclusion in an integrated framework for policy analysis. The results should contribute new insight into the relative importance of key feedbacks within the economy-climate-ecology system

  14. Land Use Change and Global Adaptations to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roxana Juliá

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses the World Trade Model with Climate Sensitive Land (WTMCL to evaluate possible future land-use changes associated with adaptations to climate change in a globalized world. In this approach, changes in regional agricultural production, which are based on comparative advantage, define patterns of land use change in agriculture in all regions of the world. We evaluate four scenarios that combine assumptions about future increases in food demand and future changes in land endowments of different productivities associated with climatic conditions: each scenario generates distinct patterns of regional specialization in the production of agricultural commodities and associated land-use change. The analysis also projects future food availability under the simulated conditions and the direction of likely changes in prices of the major agricultural commodity groups.

  15. Northern peatlands in global climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laiho, R.; Laine, J.; Vasander, H. [eds.] [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Forest Ecology

    1996-12-31

    Northern peatlands are important in regulating the global climate. While sequestering carbon dioxide, these peatlands release ca. 24-39 Tg methane annually to the atmosphere. This is 5-20 % of the annual anthropogenic methane emissions to the atmosphere. The greenhouse gas balance of peatlands may change as a consequence of water level draw-down after land-use change, or if summers become warmer and drier, as has been predicted for high latitudes after climatic warming. Subsequent emissions of methane would decrease, whereas emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide would increase. Within the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU), the research project `Carbon Balance of Peatlands and Climate Change` (SUOSILMU) has been under progress since 1990. It is a co-operative research project, with research groups from the Universities of Helsinki and Joensuu, the Finnish Forest Research Institute, the National Public Health Institute and the Finnish Environment Agency. The research consortium of this project organised a workshop entitled `Northern Peatlands in Global Climatic Change - Hyytiaelae Revisited` October 8-12, 1995. The main objective of the workshop was to review the state of the art of the carbon cycling research in natural and managed peatlands. The role of peatlands in the greenhouse effect, their response and feedback to the predicted climate change, and the consequences of land-use changes were assessed, and the future research needs were evaluated. The latest information on the role of peatlands in the atmospheric change was given in 50 posters and 4 key lectures. Results of SUOSILMU projects were demonstrated during a 1-day field excursion to one of the intensive study sites, Lakkasuo near Hyytiaelae

  16. Can air pollutant controls change global warming?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strefler, Jessica; Luderer, Gunnar; Kriegler, Elmar; Meinshausen, Malte

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Air pollution policies do not affect long-term climate targets. • Reduction of aerosols counteracts a fraction of the reduction of Kyoto forcing. • Air pollution policies may affect the rate of climate change in the short term. • There is no tradeoff between clean air and climate policies. - Abstract: In this paper we analyze the interaction between climate and air pollution policies using the integrated assessment model REMIND coupled to the reduced-form climate model MAGICC. Since overall, aerosols tend to cool the atmosphere, there is a concern that a reduction of pollutant emissions could accelerate global warming and offset the climate benefits of carbon dioxide emission reductions. We investigate scenarios which independently reduce emissions from either large-scale sources, such as power plants, or small-scale sources, such as cooking and heating stoves. Large-scale sources are likely to be easier to control, but their aerosol emissions are characterized by a relatively high sulfur content, which tends to result in atmospheric cooling. Pollution from small-scale sources, by contrast, is characterized by a high share of carbonaceous aerosol, which is an important contributor to global warming. We find that air pollution policies can significantly reduce aerosol emissions when no climate policies are in place. Stringent climate policies lead to a large reduction of fossil fuel use, and therefore result in a concurrent reduction of air pollutant emissions. These reductions partly reduce aerosol masking, thus initially counteracting the reduction of greenhouse gas forcing, however not overcompensating it. If climate policies are in place, air pollution policies have almost no impacts on medium- and long-term radiative forcing. Therefore there is no conflict of objectives between clean air and limiting global warming. We find that the stringency of air pollution policies may influence the rate of global temperature change in the first decade

  17. Linked Open Data in the Global Change Information System (GCIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, Curt A.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Global Change Research Program (http://globalchange.gov) coordinates and integrates federal research on changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP is developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will centralize access to data and information related to global change across the U.S. federal government. The first implementation will focus on the 2013 National Climate Assessment (NCA) . (http://assessment.globalchange.gov) The NCA integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the USGCRP; analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. The NCA has received over 500 distinct technical inputs to the process, many of which are reports distilling and synthesizing even more information, coming from thousands of individuals around the federal, state and local governments, academic institutions and non-governmental organizations. The GCIS will present a web-based version of the NCA including annotations linking the findings and content of the NCA with the scientific research, datasets, models, observations, etc. that led to its conclusions. It will use semantic tagging and a linked data approach, assigning globally unique, persistent, resolvable identifiers to all of the related entities and capturing and presenting the relationships between them, both internally and referencing out to other linked data sources and back to agency data centers. The developing W3C PROV Data Model and ontology will be used to capture the provenance trail and present it in both human readable web pages and machine readable formats such as RDF and SPARQL. This will improve visibility into the assessment process, increase

  18. Evaluating Global Climate Change Education Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weston, T. J.

    2011-12-01

    The Global Climate Change Education initiative (GCCE) is a multi-site effort funded by the National Science Foundation to develop web resources. The objective of curricular modules is to improve content knowledge and change attitudes about climate change among undergraduate science students. The two-year evaluation of the project was conducted by Tim Weston from the University of Colorado. The small-scale evaluation first developed measures for attitude and content about climate change, and then administered the measures online. Analysis of results is ongoing. The evaluator wanted to know the attitudes and content knowledge of students after completing the modules, and if attitudes and content knowledge shifted from pre to post. An additional component of the evaluation focused on student understanding of specific global warming topics after completing the modules. Developing the test and survey involved reviewing existing measures, soliciting content from stakeholders in the grant, and then establishing a content framework that covered the important topics in climate change linked to project curricula. The pilot attitude measure contained fourteen agree/disagree items (I believe people should change their lifestyles to help minimize climate change), five self-assessment questions (How informed are you about the different causes of climate change? ), and wo previous experience questions about previous science courses taken, and actions related to climate change. The content measure contained 10 multiple-choice items asking about changes in global average temperature, the scientific methods of climate change, and the primary countries and human activities responsible for climate change. Questions were designed to reflect a mixture of general science literacy about climate change and more specific content related knowledge taught in the curricula. Both content and attitude measures were piloted with students, who answered questions using a think-aloud" interview

  19. Global Geodetic Observing System: meeting the requirements of a global society on a changing planet in 2020

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Plag, Hans-Peter, 1952; Pearlman, Michael

    2009-01-01

    ..., Earth Observation on a global scale is at the heart of GGOS's activities, which contributes to Global Change research through the monitoring, as well as the modeling, of dynamic Earth processes such as, for example, mass and angular momentum exchanges, mass transport and ocean circulation, and changes in sea, land and ice surfaces. To achieve such a...

  20. Non-communicable diseases and global health governance: enhancing global processes to improve health development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magnusson Roger S

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper assesses progress in the development of a global framework for responding to non-communicable diseases, as reflected in the policies and initiatives of the World Health Organization (WHO, World Bank and the UN: the institutions most capable of shaping a coherent global policy. Responding to the global burden of chronic disease requires a strategic assessment of the global processes that are likely to be most effective in generating commitment to policy change at country level, and in influencing industry behaviour. WHO has adopted a legal process with tobacco (the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, but a non-legal, advocacy-based approach with diet and physical activity (the Global Strategy on Diet, Physical Activity and Health. The paper assesses the merits of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs and the FCTC as distinct global processes for advancing health development, before considering what lessons might be learned for enhancing the implementation of the Global Strategy on Diet. While global partnerships, economic incentives, and international legal instruments could each contribute to a more effective global response to chronic diseases, the paper makes a special case for the development of international legal standards in select areas of diet and nutrition, as a strategy for ensuring that the health of future generations does not become dependent on corporate charity and voluntary commitments. A broader frame of reference for lifestyle-related chronic diseases is needed: one that draws together WHO's work in tobacco, nutrition and physical activity, and that envisages selective use of international legal obligations, non-binding recommendations, advocacy and policy advice as tools of choice for promoting different elements of the strategy.

  1. Management of Organizational Change Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Vladimir-Codrin Ionescu; Cristina Bolcaș

    2015-01-01

    Contemporary organizations need to understand the meaning of change and to tackle it as a source for improving processes and activities, aiming at increasing the performance and competitiveness. From this perspective, the paper presents approaches to organizational change and highlights the fundamental objectives which the organizations set for themselves by designing and implementing organizational change programs. The conceptual framework of the change management is defined and the stages o...

  2. Marine ecosystem responses to Cenozoic global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, R D; Turner, S Kirtland; Hull, P M; Ridgwell, A

    2013-08-02

    The future impacts of anthropogenic global change on marine ecosystems are highly uncertain, but insights can be gained from past intervals of high atmospheric carbon dioxide partial pressure. The long-term geological record reveals an early Cenozoic warm climate that supported smaller polar ecosystems, few coral-algal reefs, expanded shallow-water platforms, longer food chains with less energy for top predators, and a less oxygenated ocean than today. The closest analogs for our likely future are climate transients, 10,000 to 200,000 years in duration, that occurred during the long early Cenozoic interval of elevated warmth. Although the future ocean will begin to resemble the past greenhouse world, it will retain elements of the present "icehouse" world long into the future. Changing temperatures and ocean acidification, together with rising sea level and shifts in ocean productivity, will keep marine ecosystems in a state of continuous change for 100,000 years.

  3. Climate Change - Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Katherine; Steffen, Will; Schellnhuber, Hans J.

    Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009 (the 15th Conference of the Parties, COP-15) will be a critical step in developing a global response to the threat of climate change caused by human activities. The primary scientific input to those...... of this volume. The writing team has, in addition to presentations at the Congress, drawn upon recent publications in the scientific literature to create this synthesis. This report has been critically reviewed by representatives of the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP), by the parallel session chairs......Past societies have reacted when they understood that their own activities were causing deleterious environmental change by controlling or modifying the offending activities. The scientific evidence has now become overwhelming that human activities, especially the combustion of fossil fuels...

  4. Global warming and changes in ocean circulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duffy, P.B.; Caldeira, K.C.

    1998-02-01

    This final report provides an overview of the goals and accomplishments of this project. Modeling and observational work has raised the possibility that global warming may cause changes in the circulation of the ocean. If such changes would occur they could have important climatic consequences. The first technical goal of this project was to investigate some of these possible changes in ocean circulation in a quantitative way, using a state-of -the-art numerical model of the ocean. Another goal was to develop our ocean model, a detailed three-dimensional numerical model of the ocean circulation and ocean carbon cycles. A major non-technical goal was to establish LLNL as a center of excellence in modelling the ocean circulation and carbon cycle.

  5. Interfacing remote sensing and geographic information systems for global environmental change research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jae K.; Randolph, J. C.; Lulla, Kamlesh P.; Helfert, Michael R.

    1993-01-01

    Because changes in the Earth's environment have become major global issues, continuous, longterm scientific information is required to assess global problems such as deforestation, desertification, greenhouse effects and climate variations. Global change studies require understanding of interactions of complex processes regulating the Earth system. Space-based Earth observation is an essential element in global change research for documenting changes in Earth environment. It provides synoptic data for conceptual predictive modeling of future environmental change. This paper provides a brief overview of remote sensing technology from the perspective of global change research.

  6. Global Changes of the Water Cycle Intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, Michael G.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Walker, Gregory K.

    2003-01-01

    In this study, we evaluate numerical simulations of the twentieth century climate, focusing on the changes in the intensity of the global water cycle. A new diagnostic of atmospheric water vapor cycling rate is developed and employed, that relies on constituent tracers predicted at the model time step. This diagnostic is compared to a simplified traditional calculation of cycling rate, based on monthly averages of precipitation and total water content. The mean sensitivity of both diagnostics to variations in climate forcing is comparable. However, the new diagnostic produces systematically larger values and more variability than the traditional average approach. Climate simulations were performed using SSTs of the early (1902-1921) and late (1979- 1998) twentieth century along with the appropriate C02 forcing. In general, the increase of global precipitation with the increases in SST that occurred between the early and late twentieth century is small. However, an increase of atmospheric temperature leads to a systematic increase in total precipitable water. As a result, the residence time of water in the atmosphere increased, indicating a reduction of the global cycling rate. This result was explored further using a number of 50-year climate simulations from different models forced with observed SST. The anomalies and trends in the cycling rate and hydrologic variables of different GCMs are remarkably similar. The global annual anomalies of precipitation show a significant upward trend related to the upward trend of surface temperature, during the latter half of the twentieth century. While this implies an increase in the hydrologic cycle intensity, a concomitant increase of total precipitable water again leads to a decrease in the calculated global cycling rate. An analysis of the land/sea differences shows that the simulated precipitation over land has a decreasing trend while the oceanic precipitation has an upward trend consistent with previous studies and the

  7. Future generations, environmental ethics, and global environmental change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B.E.

    1994-12-31

    The elements of a methodology to be employed by the global community to investigate the consequences of global environmental change upon future generations and global ecosystems are outlined in this paper. The methodology is comprised of two major components: A possible future worlds model; and a formal, citizen-oriented process to judge whether the possible future worlds potentially inheritable by future generations meet obligational standards. A broad array of descriptors of future worlds can be encompassed within this framework, including survival of ecosystems and other species and satisfaction of human concerns. The methodology expresses fundamental psychological motivations and human myths journey, renewal, mother earth, and being-in-nature-and incorporates several viewpoints on obligations to future generations-maintaining options, fairness, humility, and the cause of humanity. The methodology overcomes several severe drawbacks of the economic-based methods most commonly used for global environmental policy analysis.

  8. Global modelling of river water quality under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Franssen, Wietse H. P.; Yearsley, John R.

    2017-04-01

    Climate change will pose challenges on the quality of freshwater resources for human use and ecosystems for instance by changing the dilution capacity and by affecting the rate of chemical processes in rivers. Here we assess the impacts of climate change and induced streamflow changes on a selection of water quality parameters for river basins globally. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a newly developed global water quality module for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand. The modelling framework was validated using observed records of streamflow, water temperature, chloride, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand for 1981-2010. VIC and the water quality module were then forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 to study water quality trends and identify critical regions (hotspots) of water quality deterioration for the 21st century.

  9. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H. [eds.

    1992-05-01

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.

  10. Global climate change. A petroleum industry perspective. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flannery, B.P.; Clarke, R.

    1992-01-01

    The proceedings of a symposium organised by the International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association (IPIECA) in 1992 are presented. The topics covered include: the science and environmental impacts of global climate change; future greenhouse gas emissions and reduction prospects; the role of energy in development; international and regional processes relating to climate change; the scale and timing of options in response to climate change; cutting carbon emissions; implementation strategies, mechanisms and institution; long and short term energy planning; North Sea oil and gas development; Indonesian oil and gas development; Italian experience of the role of natural gas in reducing greenhouse gas emissions; opportunities for improving energy efficiency and the environment in power generation; issues to consider in the economic analysis of global climate change policies; economic assessment of CO 2 control policies; developing economic responses; the impact of response measures by industrialized countries on the world economy; reducing US CO 2 emissions - the value of flexibility in timing; criteria for policy analysis. (UK)

  11. A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, P.H.; Ellis, E.C.; Letourneau, A.

    2011-01-01

    Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here

  12. The Geosphere - Biosphere international program and the global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chanin, M.L.

    1991-01-01

    The objective of the Geosphere-Biosphere International Program (GBIP) is to achieve a correct approach of the various biogeochemical interactions between the different components of the environment (oceans, atmosphere, biosphere). The main themes are: study of the chemical regulation in the global atmosphere and influence of natural and anthropogenic processes on trace element cycles; influence of the oceanic biogeochemical processes on climates and their response to climatic changes; influence of soil utilization modification (especially coastal) on climates and ecosystems; interaction between vegetation and the water cycle; interaction between climatic changes, ecosystems and agricultural productivity; approaches to climate modelling. French component of the GBIP is presented [fr

  13. The Sea Level Fingerprints of Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitrovica, J. X.; Hay, C.; Kopp, R. E., III; Morrow, E.

    2014-12-01

    It may be difficult to persuade those living in northern Europe that the sea level changes that their coastal communities face depends less on the total melting of polar ice sheets and glaciers than on the individual contributions to this total. In particular, melting of a specific ice sheet or mountain glacier drives deformational, gravitational and rotational perturbations to the Earth system that are manifest in a unique geometry, or fingerprint, of global sea level change. For example, melting from the Greenland Ice Sheet equivalent to 1 mm/yr of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise will lead to sea level rise of ~0 mm/yr in Dublin, ~0.2 mm/yr in Amsterdam, ~0.4 mm/yr in Boston and ~1.2 mm/yr in Cape Town. In contrast, if the same volume of ice melted from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, all of the above sites would experience a sea level rise in the range 1.1-1.2 mm/yr. These fingerprints of modern ice melting, together with ocean thermal expansion and dynamic effects, and the ongoing signal from glacial isostatic adjustment in response to the last ice age, combine to produce a sea level field with significant geographic variability. In this talk I will highlight an analysis of global tide gauge records that takes full advantage of this variability to estimate both GMSL and the sources of meltwater over the last century, and to project GMSL to the end of the current century.

  14. Dynamics of energy technologies and global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Odell, P.R. [Erasmus University, Rotterdam (Netherlands). International Energy Studies

    1999-11-01

    The author comments on the paper with the same title published in Energy Policy, volume 27, part 5, page 247-280, May 1999 by Gruebler, Nakicenovic and Vidor. Peter Odell says that the article incorporates an inherent internal contradiction between their acceptance of the status quo view of oil and gas and their insistence on the power of the 'incentives for innovation... to enable new technologies (such as solar and nuclear) to diffuse into widespread use'. He concludes that Gruebler et al.'s recommendation for a frontal approach to global change, requiring attention more directly to technology policy with specific reference to the development of solar and nuclear sources of energy, is unlikely to be the preferred 21st option. Instead, a technologically oriented frontal approach which concentrates first, on enhancing the efficiency of the exploration for, and the exploration of, the world's remaining large (or even unlimited) reserves of oil and gas; and second, on the abatement of atmospheric emissions from the use of these energy resources, would seem to offer a more certain and lower cost way of tackling global change problems in the 21st century: a century in which dependence on liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons will be the natural sequel to the world's previous near-200 years' dependence on coal. 22 refs., 7 figs.

  15. Terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change: A research strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-09-01

    Uncertainty about the magnitude of global change effects on terrestrial ecosystems and consequent feedbacks to the atmosphere impedes sound policy planning at regional, national, and global scales. A strategy to reduce these uncertainties must include a substantial increase in funding for large-scale ecosystem experiments and a careful prioritization of research efforts. Prioritization criteria should be based on the magnitude of potential changes in environmental properties of concern to society, including productivity; biodiversity; the storage and cycling of carbon, water, and nutrients; and sensitivity of specific ecosystems to environmental change. A research strategy is proposed that builds on existing knowledge of ecosystem responses to global change by (1) expanding the spatial and temporal scale of experimental ecosystem manipulations to include processes known to occur at large scales and over long time periods; (2) quantifying poorly understood linkages among processes through the use of experiments that manipulate multiple interacting environmental factors over a broader range of relevant conditions than did past experiments; and (3) prioritizing ecosystems for major experimental manipulations on the basis of potential positive and negative impacts on ecosystem properties and processes of intrinsic and/or utilitarian value to humans and on feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere.

  16. Atmospheric General Circulation Changes under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palipane, Erool

    The work in this thesis is mainly two-fold. First we study the internal variability of the general circulation and focus our study on the annular modes and how important it is to simulate the subsynoptic scales in the circulation. In the next major section we will try to understand the mechanisms of the forced response and the mechanisms leading towards the jet shift from transient evolution in Atmospheric general circulation models. In the first part, in an attempt to assess the benefit of resolving the sub-synoptic to mesoscale processes, the spatial and temporal characteristics of the Annular Modes (AMs), in particular those related to the troposphere-stratosphere interaction, are evaluated for moderate- and high-horizontal resolution simulations with a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), in comparison with the ERA40 re- analysis. Relative to the CMIP-type climate models, the IFS AGCM demonstrates notable improvement in capturing the key characteristics of the AMs. Notably, the performance with the high horizontal resolution version of the model is systematically superior to the moderate resolution on all metrics examined, including the variance of the AMs at different seasons of the year, the intrinsic e-folding time scales of the AMs, and the downward influence from the stratosphere to troposphere in the AMs. Moreover, the high-resolution simulation with a greater persistence in the intrinsic variability of the SAM projects an appreciably larger shift of the surface westerly wind during the Southern Hemisphere summer under climate change. In the second part, the response of the atmospheric circulation to greenhouse gas-induced SST warming is investigated using large ensemble experiments with two AGCMs, with a focus on the robust feature of the poleward shift of the eddy driven jet. In these experiments, large ensembles of simulations are conducted by abruptly switching the SST forcing on from January 1st to focus on the wintertime circulation

  17. Understanding Global Change: Frameworks and Models for Teaching Systems Thinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, J. R.; Mitchell, K.; Zoehfeld, K.; Oshry, A.; Menicucci, A. J.; White, L. D.; Marshall, C. R.

    2017-12-01

    The scientific and education communities must impart to teachers, students, and the public an understanding of how the various factors that drive climate and global change operate, and why the rates and magnitudes of these changes related to human perturbation of Earth system processes today are cause for deep concern. Even though effective educational modules explaining components of the Earth and climate system exist, interdisciplinary learning tools are necessary to conceptually link the causes and consequences of global changes. To address this issue, the Understanding Global Change Project at the University of California Museum of Paleontology (UCMP) at UC Berkeley developed an interdisciplinary framework that organizes global change topics into three categories: (1) causes of climate change, both human and non-human (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, Earth's tilt and orbit), (2) Earth system processes that shape the way the Earth works (e.g., Earth's energy budget, water cycle), and (3) the measurable changes in the Earth system (e.g., temperature, precipitation, ocean acidification). To facilitate student learning about the Earth as a dynamic, interacting system, a website will provide visualizations of Earth system models and written descriptions of how each framework topic is conceptually linked to other components of the framework. These visualizations and textual summarizations of relationships and feedbacks in the Earth system are a unique and crucial contribution to science communication and education, informed by a team of interdisciplinary scientists and educators. The system models are also mechanisms by which scientists can communicate how their own work informs our understanding of the Earth system. Educators can provide context and relevancy for authentic datasets and concurrently can assess student understanding of the interconnectedness of global change phenomena. The UGC resources will be available through a web-based platform and

  18. NASA NDATC Global Climate Change Education Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, B.; Wood, E.; Meyer, D.; Maynard, N.; Pandya, R. E.

    2009-12-01

    This project aligns with NASA’s Strategic Goal 3A - “Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs and focuses on funding from the GCCE Funding Category 2: Strengthen the Teaching and Learning About Global Climate Change Within Formal Education Systems. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report (2007) those communities with the least amount of resources will be most vulnerable, and least likely to adapt to the impacts brought on by a changing climate. Further, the level of vulnerability of these communities is directly correlated with their ability to implement short, medium and long range mitigation measures. The North Dakota Association of Tribal Colleges (NDATC) has established a climate change education initiative among its six member Tribal Colleges and Universities (TCUs). The goal of this project is to enhance the TCUs capacity to educate their constituents on the science of climate change and mitigation strategies specifically as they apply to Indian Country. NDATC is comprised of six American Indian tribally chartered colleges (TCUs) which include: Cankdeska Cikana Community College, serving the Spirit Lake Dakota Nation; Fort Berthold Community College, serving the Mandan, Hidatsa, and Arikara Nation; Sitting Bull College, serving the Hunkpapa Lakota and Dakota Nation; Turtle Mountain Community College, serving the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa; Sisseton Wahpeton College serving the Sisseton and Wahpeton Dakota Nation, and United Tribes Technical College, serving over 70 Tribal groups from across the United States. The purpose of this project is to (1) increase awareness of climate change and its potential impacts in Indian Country through education for students, faculty and presidents of the TCUs as well as Tribal leadership; (2) increase the capacity of TCUs to respond to this global threat on behalf of tribal people; (3) develop climate change mitigation strategies relevant to Indian

  19. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available This report is submitted as a deliverable of the SRP project Global Change Risk Analysis which aims at applying risk analysis as a unifying notion for quantifying and communicating threats to ecosystem services originating from global change...

  20. Signal Processing Schemes for Doppler Global Velocimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyers, James F.; Lee, Joseph W.; Cavone, Angelo A.

    1991-01-01

    Two schemes for processing signals obtained from the Doppler global velocimeter are described. The analog approach is a simple, real time method for obtaining an RS-170 video signal containing the normalized intensity image. Pseudo colors are added using a monochromatic frame grabber producing a standard NTSC video signal that can be monitored and/or recorded. The digital approach is more complicated, but maintains the full resolution of the acquisition cameras with the capabilities to correct the signal image for pixel sensitivity variations and to remove of background light. Prototype circuits for each scheme are described and example results from the investigation of the vortical flow field above a 75-degree delta wing presented.

  1. Biodiversity and global change. Adaptative responses to global change: results and prospective. IFB-GICC restitution colloquium; Biodiversite et changement global. Reponses adaptatives au changement global: resultats et prospective. Colloque de restitution IFB-GICC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Despres, L.; Hossaert-Mckey, M.; Martin, J.F.; Pont, D.; Valero, M.; Chave, J.; Benizri, E.; Amiaud, B.; Boury-Esnault, N.; Fritz, H.; Lavelle, P.; Martin, F.; Poulet, S.; Blanchard, F.; Cheddadi, R.; Dupouey, J.L.; Hulle, M.; Michaux, J.; Souissi, S.; Bridault, A.; Dambrine, E.; Gomez, B.; Thevenard, F.; Legendre, S.; Suc, J.P.; Zeitoun, V.; Bezancon, G.; Frascaria-Lacoste, N.; Ponsard, S.; Bourguet, D.; Vigne, J.D.; Doyen, L.; Joly, P.; Gourlet-Fleury, S.; Garnier, E.; Lebaron, Ph.; Boulinier, Th.; Chuine, I.; Jiguet, F.; Couvet, D.; Soussana, J.F.; Weimerskirsch, H.; Grosbois, V.; Bretagnolle, V

    2006-07-01

    Global change is the consequence of the worldwide human print on ecology. The uncontrolled use of fossil fuels, the urbanization, the intensifying of agriculture, the homogenization of life styles and cultures, the homogenization of fauna and vegetation, the commercial trades, the bio-invasions, the over-exploitation of resources and the emergence of new economic powers (China, India, Brazil..) represent an adaptative dynamics of interactions which affects the overall biosphere and the adaptative capacities and the future of all species. Biodiversity is an ecological and societal insurance against the risks and uncertainties linked with global change. The French institute of biodiversity (IFB) has created a working group in charge of a study on global change and biodiversity, in particular in terms of: speed and acceleration of processes, interaction between the different organization levels of the world of living, scale changes, and adaptative capacities. 38 projects with an interdisciplinary approach have been retained by the IFB and the Ministry of ecology and sustainable development. The conclusion of these projects were presented at this restitution colloquium and are summarized in this document. The presentations are organized in 7 sessions dealing with: global changes and adaptation mechanisms; functional responses to global changes; spatial responses to global changes; temporal responses to global changes; selective answers to global changes; available tools and ecological services; scenarios and projections. (J.S.)

  2. Malaysia's contributions towards global climate change concerns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuzlaini Mohd Yusop; Yvonne Lunsong; Norhayati Kamaruddin

    2000-01-01

    Concerns about Green House Gas (GHG) emissions and global climate change were voiced by the scientific community as far back as the International Geophysical year in 1957 when climate changes scenarios and impacts were analysed. More recently, the United Nations Framework Convention on climate change (UNFCCC) was adopted in 1992, renewing a global acknowledgement and commitment towards curbing GHG emissions. Little progress was made until the adoption of Kyoto Protocol in December 1997, over 5 years later. Basically, developed countries would not commit to strong measures if there were no global effort (i. e. corresponding efforts by developing countries) while developing countries are waiting for developed countries to show concrete results first. Since 1950, developed countries cumulatively produced more than 80% of worldwide GHG emissions. Between 1950 and 1990, North America alone contributed 40 billion tons of carbon while Western and Eastern Europe contributed 57 billion tons. Developing countries produced only 24 billion tons of carbon emissions during the same period. At present, per capita emission in developed countries are also about ten times higher than those of developing countries. This imbalance has caused most developing countries to adopt a wait till others do it stance and justifiably so. Nonetheless, curbing GHG emissions should be a larger community effort (which includes business and the public) and not just the efforts of Governments and officials. Thus, the deciding factors should make more business or economic sense. It is likely that business and the general public would listen and contribute positively if they are made aware of potential cost savings and international competitiveness to be derived from these efforts. During the current economic slowdown, especially in East Asia, it makes business sense to defer the capital investment in new electricity generating capacity and related energy supply infrastructure. Pusat Tenaga Malaysia

  3. Stormy Weather: 101 Solutions to Global Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dauncey, Guy

    This document presents 101 solutions to global climate change. These solutions are actions that are well suited to every level of society. This book creates awareness about global climate change. The history of Earth and the greenhouse effect are discussed, and explanations and solutions to global climate change are provided including traveling…

  4. Global warming and abrupt climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, A. J.; Hillaire-Marcel, C.

    2004-05-01

    Despite recent the recent IPCC (2001) assessment that "Most models show weakening of the Northern Hemisphere Thermohaline Circulation (THC), which contributes to a reduction of surface warming in the northern North Atlantic. Even in models where the THC weakens, there is still a warming over Europe due to increased greenhouse gases." there is still a widespread misunderstanding of the possible consequence of climate change on the Atlantic Ocean Meridional Overturning. In particular, it is often touted, especially in the media that a possible consequence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is: "Global warming will cause the onset of the next ice age". Here we document the history from where this misconception arose and quantitatively show how it is impossible for an ice age to ensue as a consequence of global warming. Through analysis of the paleoclimate record as well as a number of climate model simulations, we also suggest that it is very unlikely that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning will cease to be active in the near future. We further suggest that a region where intermediate water formation may shut down is in the Labrador Sea, although this has more minor consequences for climate than if deep water formation in the Nordic Seas were to cease.

  5. Climate Change and Global Wine Quality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, G.V. [Department of Geography, Southern Oregon University, 1250 Siskiyou Blvd, Ashland, Oregon, 97520 (United States); White, M.A. [Department of Aquatic, Watershed, and Earth Resources, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, 84322 (United States); Cooper, O.R. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences CIRES, University of Colorado/NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, 80305 (United States); Storchmann, K. [Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, 06520 (United States)

    2005-12-01

    From 1950 to 1999 the majority of the world's highest quality wine-producing regions experienced growing season warming trends. Vintage quality ratings during this same time period increased significantly while year-to-year variation declined. While improved winemaking knowledge and husbandry practices contributed to the better vintages it was shown that climate had, and will likely always have, a significant role in quality variations. This study revealed that the impacts of climate change are not likely to be uniform across all varieties and regions. Currently, many European regions appear to be at or near their optimum growing season temperatures, while the relationships are less defined in the New World viticulture regions. For future climates, model output for global wine producing regions predicts an average warming of 2C in the next 50 yr. For regions producing high-quality grapes at the margins of their climatic limits, these results suggest that future climate change will exceed a climatic threshold such that the ripening of balanced fruit required for existing varieties and wine styles will become progressively more difficult. In other regions, historical and predicted climate changes could push some regions into more optimal climatic regimes for the production of current varietals. In addition, the warmer conditions could lead to more poleward locations potentially becoming more conducive to grape growing and wine production.

  6. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lineman, Maurice; Do, Yuno; Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined.

  7. Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolf, Dominic; Amonette, James E; Street-Perrott, F Alayne; Lehmann, Johannes; Joseph, Stephen

    2010-08-10

    Production of biochar (the carbon (C)-rich solid formed by pyrolysis of biomass) and its storage in soils have been suggested as a means of abating climate change by sequestering carbon, while simultaneously providing energy and increasing crop yields. Substantial uncertainties exist, however, regarding the impact, capacity and sustainability of biochar at the global level. In this paper we estimate the maximum sustainable technical potential of biochar to mitigate climate change. Annual net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane and nitrous oxide could be reduced by a maximum of 1.8 Pg CO(2)-C equivalent (CO(2)-C(e)) per year (12% of current anthropogenic CO(2)-C(e) emissions; 1 Pg=1 Gt), and total net emissions over the course of a century by 130 Pg CO(2)-C(e), without endangering food security, habitat or soil conservation. Biochar has a larger climate-change mitigation potential than combustion of the same sustainably procured biomass for bioenergy, except when fertile soils are amended while coal is the fuel being offset.

  8. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined. PMID:26418127

  9. The Changing Global Context of Virtual Workforce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James A. Ejiwale

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The technological revolution occurring in today’s market place has made it possible for many companies to be innovative about the way and where work is done. To get the job done, due to digital revolution, companies have turned to virtual workforce to harness the benefits of connectivity and effective information sharing among stakeholders to get the job done. More important, the success of coordinating work among a virtual workforce for profitability in a rapidly changing global environment depends on “effective indirect communication” between the leadership and the virtual workforce. This article will address the importance of effective communication as a necessary tool for the success of e-leadership, productivity improvement in virtual work environment.

  10. Global change - Geoengineering and space exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Lyle M.

    1992-01-01

    Geoengineering options and alternatives are proposed for mitigating the effects of global climate change and depletion of the ozone layer. Geoengineering options were discussed by the National Academy of Science Panel on the Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming. Several of the ideas conveyed in their published report are space-based or depend on space systems for implementation. Among the geoengineering options using space that are discussed include the use of space power systems as an alternative to fossil fuels for generating electricity, the use of lunar He-3 to aid in the development of fusion energy, and the establishment of a lunar power system for solar energy conversion and electric power beaming back to earth. Other geoengineering options are discussed. They include the space-based modulation of hurricane forces and two space-based approaches in dealing with ozone layer depletion. The engineering challenges and policy implementation issues are discussed for these geongineering options.

  11. National action to mitigate global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-06-01

    Over 170 participants from 60 countries met for three days in Copenhagen from 7 to 9 June 1994 to discuss howe the aims of the United Nations Framework convention on Climate Change can be translated into practical action. The Conference was organised by the UNEP collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE), with financial support from the Danish International Development Agency (Danida), the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and Risoe National Laboratory, Denmark. The main objective of the conference was to identify common approaches to national mitigation analysis for countries to use in meeting their commitments under the FCCC, and in setting priorities for national actions. Although addressing a broader theme, the conference marked the completion and publication of the second phase on UNEP Greenhouse Gas Abatement Costing Study. (au)

  12. Conceptual design of a measurement network of the global change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Hari

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The global environment is changing rapidly due to anthropogenic emissions and actions. Such activities modify aerosol and greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, leading to regional and global climate change and affecting, e.g., food and fresh-water security, sustainable use of natural resources and even demography. Here we present a conceptual design of a global, hierarchical observation network that can provide tools and increased understanding to tackle the inter-connected environmental and societal challenges that we will face in the coming decades. The philosophy behind the conceptual design relies on physical conservation laws of mass, energy and momentum, as well as on concentration gradients that act as driving forces for the atmosphere-biosphere exchange. The network is composed of standard, flux and/or advanced and flagship stations, each of which having specific and identified tasks. Each ecosystem type on the globe has its own characteristic features that have to be taken into consideration. The hierarchical network as a whole is able to tackle problems related to large spatial scales, heterogeneity of ecosystems and their complexity. The most comprehensive observations are envisioned to occur in flagship stations, with which the process-level understanding can be expanded to continental and global scales together with advanced data analysis, Earth system modelling and satellite remote sensing. The denser network of the flux and standard stations allows application and up-scaling of the results obtained from flagship stations to the global level.

  13. Feedbacks and Acceleration of Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, William

    2014-05-01

    The burning of fossil fuels since the beginning of the Industrial revolution has increased the level of atmospheric CO2 by about 45 % over that of earlier times. The increasing greenhouse effect is augmented by a series of feedbacks; most have been positive, but a few are negative. The most important are 1) Slowing of the thermohaline circulation system; 2) Decreasing Atlantic to Pacific vapor transport; 3) Increasing Arctic river runoff; 4) Melting of Arctic sea ice; 5) Periodic replacement of the Arctic atmospheric high by a cyclonic low pressure system; 6) Increased exchange of waters between the Arctic and North Atlantic; 7) Lessening of the Northern Hemisphere ice-albedo feedback effect; 8) Addition of methane from melting permafrost; 9) Overall changes in the rate of ocean mixing; 10) Overall changes in vegetation cover of land; 11) Increase in the area covered by C4 vegetation; 12) Addition of nitrous oxide from agricultural practices; 13) Changes in insect populations and their effect on vegetation; 14) Wildfires; 15) Soot accumulation on snow and ice; 16) Accelerated melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet; 17) Changes in the East Antarctic Ice Sheet; 18) Closing of the ozone hole over Antarctica; 19) Decay of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet; 20) Expansion of Southern Ocean sea ice; 21) Slowing of the rate of organic matter sinking into the deep ocean; 22) Decrease in insolation reaching the surface of the Earth as a result of introduction of aerosols into the atmosphere; 23) Depletion of stratospheric ozone by nitrous oxide. The global and regional effects and relative importance of many of these feedbacks are uncertain, and they may change both in magnitude and sign with time. New and unexpected mechanisms are constantly being discovered. The uncertainties and complexity associated with climate system feedbacks are responsible for the acceleration of climate change beyond the rates predicted by numerical modeling. To add to the difficulties inherent in

  14. Global change and river flow in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billi, Paolo; Fazzini, Massimiliano

    2017-08-01

    The hydrological data of 23 flow gauges, evenly distributed across the Italian territory and covering almost 40% of it, have been analyzed in order to verify the occurrence of temporal trends and their rates of change. A total of 102 time series diagrams of the parameters considered, i.e. precipitation, runoff, maximum discharge, discharge exceed 10 days a year, were obtained. The results indicate that all the parameters considered show a decreasing trend. Also the comparison of bankfull discharge calculated for three periods, prior to 1951, 1951-1980 and 1981-2007, indicate a substantial decrease. The general decrease in river flow is accounted for in terms of global change (namely precipitation, land use change and water consumption increase). In the aim to summarize the pattern of change of the parameters considered, the data have been standardized and mean time series of Z score for a few representative rivers have been obtained. All these results depict for Italy a framework of substantial decrease of water resources (average precipitation and runoff decreasing rates are - 2.11 and - 2.65 mmyr- 1, respectively) and sediment transport capacity with evident consequences on the river ecosystems and beach stability. The countertrending behavior of medium to high discharge of the Po River are analyzed and explained in terms of temperature increase. In order to investigate the role of the upstream catchment area in determining the variability of a few of the parameters considered in this study, simple regression analyses have been performed which demonstrate a high degree of accuracy in predicting specific discharges also for rivers without flow records or insufficient flow data.

  15. Global change and marine communities: Alien species and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Occhipinti-Ambrogi, Anna

    2007-01-01

    Anthropogenic influences on the biosphere since the advent of the industrial age are increasingly causing global changes. Climatic change and the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are ranking high in scientific and public agendas, and other components of global change are also frequently addressed, among which are the introductions of non indigenous species (NIS) in biogeographic regions well separated from the donor region, often followed by spectacular invasions. In the marine environment, both climatic change and spread of alien species have been studied extensively; this review is aimed at examining the main responses of ecosystems to climatic change, taking into account the increasing importance of biological invasions. Some general principles on NIS introductions in the marine environment are recalled, such as the importance of propagule pressure and of development stages during the time course of an invasion. Climatic change is known to affect many ecological properties; it interacts also with NIS in many possible ways. Direct (proximate) effects on individuals and populations of altered physical-chemical conditions are distinguished from indirect effects on emergent properties (species distribution, diversity, and production). Climatically driven changes may affect both local dispersal mechanisms, due to the alteration of current patterns, and competitive interactions between NIS and native species, due to the onset of new thermal optima and/or different carbonate chemistry. As well as latitudinal range expansions of species correlated with changing temperature conditions, and effects on species richness and the correlated extinction of native species, some invasions may provoke multiple effects which involve overall ecosystem functioning (material flow between trophic groups, primary production, relative extent of organic material decomposition, extent of benthic-pelagic coupling). Some examples are given, including a special

  16. Climate change at the coast: from global to local

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watkinson, A.R.

    2009-01-01

    The IPCC has recently documented substantial changes in the global heat content of the oceans, salinity, sea level, thermal expansion and biogeochemistry. Over the 21. century anticipated climate related changes include: a rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more; increases in sea surface temperatures up to 3 deg. C; an intensification of tropical and extra tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/ run-off; and ocean acidification. The Tyndall Centre has been exploring how to down-scale the global analysis to the local level within the framework of a coastal simulator. The simulator provides information on possible future states of the coast through the 21. Century under a range of climate and socio-economic futures and shoreline management options. It links models within a nested framework, recognizing three scales: (1) global, (2) regional, and (3) local. The linked models describe a range of processes, including marine climate (waves, surges and mean sea level), sand bank morpho-dynamics, wave transformation, shoreline morpho-dynamics, built environment scenarios, ecosystem change, and erosion and flood risk. Analyses from the simulator reinforce conclusions from IPCC WG2: coasts will be exposed to increasing risks over coming decades due to many compounding climate-change factors; the impact of climate change on coasts will be exacerbated by increasing human induced pressures; the unavoidability of sea-level rise even in the longer-term frequently conflicts with present day human development patterns and trends. (author)

  17. Exploring Global Change In Place-Based Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moosavi, S. C.

    2011-12-01

    The complexity of global climate change makes the subject challenging for the average student, particularly given the nuanced feedbacks and exceptions to the general "warming" or "drying" trend that may be experienced at the local and regional level at which most people experience geologic processes. Geoscience educators can reduce these barriers and draw in student learners by adopting a place-based approach to teaching and researching geologic principles that relate to global change. Assisting students in recognizing and understanding the geologic environment in which they live and study has the side benefit of making the potential effect of climate change tangible. This presentation will review several approaches for using place-based case studies to explore global climate change issues in large lecture, small seminar, field research and service learning environments. The special place project used in large introductory physical geology courses requires each student to select a place familiar and unique to them for an in depth study of the common course content as the semester progresses. Students are specifically tasked with identifying how their site came to be, the geologic processes that act upon it today, how the site may have been different during the last glacial advance and how global climate change (specifically warming of 3OC over 50 years) might impact the site. The concept that change has occurred at the student's site in the past, even far from glacial environments, opens students to the scale of potential anthropogenic climate change. A freshman seminar Global Warming & Climate Change - Service in Preparation for Climate Change: The Second Battle of New Orleans focused on the environmental threats to New Orleans and southeastern Louisiana resulting from regional land use decisions in the centuries before Hurricane Katrina, and the threat that global change relating to sea level rise, acceleration of the hydrologic cycle and intensification of

  18. Global GNSS processing based on the raw observation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strasser, Sebastian; Zehentner, Norbert; Mayer-Gürr, Torsten

    2017-04-01

    Many global navigation satellite system (GNSS) applications, e.g. Precise Point Positioning (PPP), require high-quality GNSS products, such as precise GNSS satellite orbits and clocks. These products are routinely determined by analysis centers of the International GNSS Service (IGS). The current processing methods of the analysis centers make use of the ionosphere-free linear combination to reduce the ionospheric influence. Some of the analysis centers also form observation differences, in general double-differences, to eliminate several additional error sources. The raw observation approach is a new GNSS processing approach that was developed at Graz University of Technology for kinematic orbit determination of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites and subsequently adapted to global GNSS processing in general. This new approach offers some benefits compared to well-established approaches, such as a straightforward incorporation of new observables due to the avoidance of observation differences and linear combinations. This becomes especially important in view of the changing GNSS landscape with two new systems, the European system Galileo and the Chinese system BeiDou, currently in deployment. GNSS products generated at Graz University of Technology using the raw observation approach currently comprise precise GNSS satellite orbits and clocks, station positions and clocks, code and phase biases, and Earth rotation parameters. To evaluate the new approach, products generated using the Global Positioning System (GPS) constellation and observations from the global IGS station network are compared to those of the IGS analysis centers. The comparisons show that the products generated at Graz University of Technology are on a similar level of quality to the products determined by the IGS analysis centers. This confirms that the raw observation approach is applicable to global GNSS processing. Some areas requiring further work have been identified, enabling future

  19. Changing PLA Processes, Not PLA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suopis, Cynthia A.

    2009-01-01

    Margaret J. Wheatley, the organizational consultant who wrote the 1999 classic, "Leadership and the New Science: Discovering Order in a Chaotic World," laments about the rigid structures and processes that often strangle organizations rendering them incapable of change. Wheatley asserts that organizations lack faith that their purpose…

  20. Global Change and the Earth System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollack, Henry N.

    2004-08-01

    The Earth system in recent years has come to mean the complex interactions of the atmosphere, biosphere, lithosphere and hydrosphere, through an intricate network of feedback loops. This system has operated over geologic time, driven principally by processes with long time scales. Over the lifetime of the solar system, the Sun has slowly become more radiant, and the geography of continents and oceans basins has evolved via plate tectonics. This geography has placed a first-order constraint on the circulation of ocean waters, and thus has strongly influenced regional and global climate. At shorter time scales, the Earth system has been influenced by Milankovitch orbital factors and occasional exogenous events such as bolide impacts. Under these influences the system chugged along for eons, until some few hundred thousand years ago, when one remarkable species evolved: Homo sapiens. As individuals, humans are of course insignificant in shaping the Earth system, but collectively the six billion human occupants of the planet now rival ``natural'' processes in modifying the Earth system. This profound human influence underlies the dubbing of the present epoch of geologic history as the ``Anthropocene.''

  1. International regime formation: Ozone depletion and global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Busmann, N.E.

    1994-03-01

    Two theoretical perspectives, neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism, dominate in international relations. An assessment is made of whether these perspectives provide compelling explanations of why a regime with specific targets and timetables was formed for ozone depletion, while a regime with such specificity was not formed for global climate change. In so doing, the assumptions underlying neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism are examined. A preliminary assessment is offered of the policymaking and institutional bargaining process. Patterns of interstate behavior are evolving toward broader forms of cooperation, at least with regard to global environmental issues, although this process is both slow and cautious. State coalitions on specific issues are not yet powerful enough to create a strong community of states in which states are willing to devolve power to international institutions. It is shown that regime analysis is a useful analytic framework, but it should not be mistaken for theory. Regime analysis provides an organizational framework offering a set of questions regarding the principles and norms that govern cooperation and conflict in an issue area, and whether forces independent of states exist which affect the scope of state behavior. An examination of both neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism, embodied by four approaches to regime formation, demonstrates that neither has sufficient scope to account for contextual dynamics in either the ozone depletion or global climate change regime formation processes. 261 refs

  2. Global DNA methylation changes in Cucurbitaceae inter-species grafting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evangelia Avramidou

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Grafting has been used to improve yield, fruit quality and disease resistance in a range of tree and vegetable species. The molecular mechanisms underpinning grafting responses have only recently started to be delineated. One of those mechanisms involves long distance transfer of genetic material from rootstock to scion alluding to an epigenetic component to the grafting process. In the research presented herein we extended published work on heritable changes in the DNA methylation pattern of Solanaceae scion genomes, in Cucurbitaceae inter-species grafting. Specifically, we examined global DNA methylation changes in scions of cucumber, melon and watermelon heterografted onto pumpkin rootstocks using MSAP analysis. We observed a significant increase of global DNA methylation in cucumber and melon scions pointing to an epigenetic effect in Cucurbitaceae heterografting. Exploitation of differential epigenetic marking in different rootstock-scion combinations could lead to development of epi-molecular markers for generation and selection of superior quality grafted vegetables.

  3. Do global change experiments overestimate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leuzinger, Sebastian; Luo, Yiqi; Beier, Claus

    2011-01-01

    In recent decades, many climate manipulation experiments have investigated biosphere responses to global change. These experiments typically examined effects of elevated atmospheric CO2, warming or drought (driver variables) on ecosystem processes such as the carbon and water cycle (response...... of the responses to decline with higher-order interactions, longer time periods and larger spatial scales. This means that on average, both positive and negative global change impacts on the biosphere might be dampened more than previously assumed....... variables). Because experiments are inevitably constrained in the number of driver variables tested simultaneously, as well as in time and space, a key question is how results are scaled up to predict net ecosystem responses. In this review, we argue that there might be a general trend for the magnitude...

  4. Regionalism and Economic Processes with Global Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina TABAC

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Regionalism has become one of the most discussed topics at the moment, in recent years and become one of the central challenges of the future in the modern system of international relations. Finally, in the XIX-XX centuries, scientists have expressed it a worldwide phenomenon through a process of radical change "external environment" and significant internal changes. It can be expressed in the world in one way or another, even if it has not been shown modest form until recently. Currently, regionalism and regional integration are considered as key indicators of international developments in the research of foreign policy and international relations. Theory followed the end of the era of "Cold War" and entered the post-bipolar world, multi-faceted development stage. The attention of researchers has grown to regionalization and regional integration by increasing the role and activities of regional organizations such as the EU, ASEAN, APEC and NAFTA, which coordinates the process of decision-making at supranational level, as well as issues of international regulation.

  5. INTRODUCTION: Anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Richard P.; Liepert, Beate G.

    2010-06-01

    The atmospheric branch of the water cycle, although containing just a tiny fraction of the Earth's total water reserves, presents a crucial interface between the physical climate (such as large-scale rainfall patterns) and the ecosystems upon which human societies ultimately depend. Because of the central importance of water in the Earth system, the question of how the water cycle is changing, and how it may alter in future as a result of anthropogenic changes, present one of the greatest challenges of this century. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on Climate Change and Water (Bates et al 2008) highlighted the increasingly strong evidence of change in the global water cycle and associated environmental consequences. It is of critical importance to climate prediction and adaptation strategies that key processes in the atmospheric water cycle are precisely understood and determined, from evaporation at the surface of the ocean, transport by the atmosphere, condensation as cloud and eventual precipitation, and run-off through rivers following interaction with the land surface, sub-surface, ice, snow and vegetation. The purpose of this special focus issue of Environmental Research Letters on anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle is to consolidate the recent substantial advances in understanding past, present and future changes in the global water cycle through evidence built upon theoretical understanding, backed up by observations and borne out by climate model simulations. Thermodynamic rises in water vapour provide a central constraint, as discussed in a guest editorial by Bengtsson (2010). Theoretical implications of the Clausius-Clapeyron equation are presented by O'Gorman and Muller (2010) and with reference to a simple model (Sherwood 2010) while observed humidity changes confirm these anticipated responses at the land and ocean surface (Willett et al 2008). Rises in low-level moisture are thought to fuel an

  6. Development of international labor migration in the dynamics of globalization processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rubinskaya Eteri, D.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The current characteristics of international migration caused by the qualitative changes that occur in the global economy under influence of increasing globalization. The paper attempts to suggest periodization of the global economy development and to identify features of international labor migration occurred under the influence of deep changes in the world economy. During this period, the author identifies three stages in the formation of globalization, the transition criterion from one to other is the degree of world economy changes under the influence of the productive forces development and the major social and political transformations resulted in qualitative changes in the processes of international labor migration. At the same time in the context of globalization the place and role of international labor migration changes in the global economy system: migration becomes a means of promoting the globalization of countries and regions, the most important factor of demographic development and economic growth.

  7. Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth system processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saltzman, Barry

    1993-01-01

    During the past eight years, we have been engaged in a NASA-supported program of research aimed at establishing the connection between satellite signatures of the earth's environmental state and the nonlinear dynamics of the global weather and climate system. Thirty-five publications and four theses have resulted from this work, which included contributions in five main areas of study: (1) cloud and latent heat processes in finite-amplitude baroclinic waves; (2) application of satellite radiation data in global weather analysis; (3) studies of planetary waves and low-frequency weather variability; (4) GCM studies of the atmospheric response to variable boundary conditions measurable from satellites; and (5) dynamics of long-term earth system changes. Significant accomplishments from the three main lines of investigation pursued during the past year are presented and include the following: (1) planetary atmospheric waves and low frequency variability; (2) GCM studies of the atmospheric response to changed boundary conditions; and (3) dynamics of long-term changes in the global earth system.

  8. Environmental health implications of global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, Robert T.; Patz, Jonathan; Gubler, Duane J.; Parson, Edward A.; Vincent, James H.

    2005-07-01

    This paper reviews the background that has led to the now almost-universally held opinion in the scientific community that global climate change is occurring and is inescapably linked with anthropogenic activity. The potential implications to human health are considerable and very diverse. These include, for example, the increased direct impacts of heat and of rises in sea level, exacerbated air and water-borne harmful agents, and - associated with all the preceding - the emergence of environmental refugees. Vector-borne diseases, in particular those associated with blood-sucking arthropods such as mosquitoes, may be significantly impacted, including redistribution of some of those diseases to areas not previously affected. Responses to possible impending environmental and public health crises must involve political and socio-economic considerations, adding even greater complexity to what is already a difficult challenge. In some areas, adjustments to national and international public health practices and policies may be effective, at least in the short and medium terms. But in others, more drastic measures will be required. Environmental monitoring, in its widest sense, will play a significant role in the future management of the problem. (Author)

  9. Ozone, Climate, and Global Atmospheric Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Joel S.

    1992-01-01

    Presents an overview of global atmospheric problems relating to ozone depletion and global warming. Provides background information on the composition of the earth's atmosphere and origin of atmospheric ozone. Describes causes, effects, and evidence of ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect. A vignette provides a summary of a 1991 assessment of…

  10. Global changes and the air-sea exchange of chemicals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    Present and potential future changes to the global environment have important implications for marine pollution and for the air-sea exchange of both anthropogenic and natural substances. This report addresses three issues related to the potential impact of global change on the air-sea exchange of chemicals: Global change and the air-sea transfer of the nutrients nitrogen and iron. Global change and the air-sea exchange of gases. Oceanic responses to radiative and oxidative changes in the atmosphere. The deposition of atmospheric anthropogenic nitrogen has probably increased biological productivity in coastal regions along many continental margins. Atmospheric deposition of new nitrogen may also have increased productivity somewhat in mid-ocean regions. The projected future increases of nitrogen oxide emissions from Asia, Africa and South America will provide significant increases in the rate of deposition of oxidized nitrogen to the central North Pacific, the equatorial Atlantic, and the equatorial and central South Indian Oceans. Atmospheric iron may be an important nutrient in certain open regions. Future changes will likely occur if there are changing patterns of aridity and wind speed as a result of climate change. The most important future effects on surface ocean p CO2 will likely be caused by changes in ocean circulation. The pH of the ocean would decrease by ∼0.3 units for a doubling of p CO2 , reducing the capacity of the ocean to take up CO 2 . There is increasing evidence that dimethyl sulfide from the ocean is a source of cloud condensation nuclei and thus a factor controlling cloud albedo. By 2060 in the southern hemisphere reduction in total column stratospheric ozone from recent levels could reach 2 to 5% in the tropics, 10% at mid latitudes, and over 20% at 60 deg C. S. In this same time frame increases in ground-level effective UV-B radiation could reach 5%, 26% and 66%, at low, mid, and high latitudes in the southern hemisphere. Changes in

  11. Creative Industries: Development Processes Under Contemporary Conditions of Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerija Kontrimienė

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the processes of developing creative industries under conditions of a growth in the worldwide economy and globalization, discloses the role of the sector of creative industries and shows its place in the system of the modern global economy. The paper presents a comparative analysis of theories and theoretical approaches intended for the sector of creative industries and its development as well as defines regularities and specificities characteristic of the development of creative industries. Particular attention is shifted on the growth and development of creative industries considering the current challenges of globalization and on the most important specificities of the developing sector in the context of the challenges of economic globalization. The paper examines the trends reflecting the place of the sector of creative industries in the economy of the modern world, including the tendencies indicating changes in the export of the products created in this sector. The article considers the issues of developing creative industries and reveals priorities of future research.

  12. Effects of global change on tropical ecosystems

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Scholes, RJ

    1997-09-01

    Full Text Available without substantial change in cover type. Atmospheric composition changes and resultant climate changes could become ecologically significant within the next century. Changes in atmospheric composition in the tropics are essentially the same as those...

  13. Regional to global changes in drought and implications for future changes under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Kam, J.

    2012-12-01

    Drought can have large impacts on multiple sectors, including agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, transport, industry and tourism. In extreme cases, regional drought can lead to food insecurity and famine, and in intensive agricultural regions, extend to global economic impacts in a connected world. Recent droughts globally have been severe and costly but whether they are becoming more frequent and severe, and the attribution of this, is a key question. Observational evidence at large scales, such as satellite remote sensing are often subject to short-term records and inhomogeneities, and ground based data are sparse in many regions. Reliance on model output is also subject to error and simplifications in the model physics that can, for example, amplify the impact of global warming on drought. This presentation will show the observational and model evidence for changes in drought, with a focus on the interplay between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand and its impact on the terrestrial water cycle and drought. We discuss the fidelity of climate models to reproduce our best estimates of drought variability and its drivers historically, and the implications of this on uncertainties in future projections of drought from CMIP5 models, and how this has changed since CMIP3.

  14. Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaohui Tian; Brent Sohngen; John B Kim; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, theMC2model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase...

  15. Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-12-01

    The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI

  16. The Impact Of Climate Change On Water Resources: Global And ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    GHGs) is increasing and this has resulted to changing global climate with increasing temperature. The rise in global average temperatures since 1860 now exceeds 0.6OC. The effect of the GHGs concentration on global warming as at 2100 is ...

  17. U.S. Global Change Research Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... communicate key aspects and related effects of the changing climate. Explore Indicators Understand Climate Change Explore Regions & Topics ... Announcing... Read more The Deepening Story of How Climate Change Threatens Human Health Read more Celebrating the 25th Anniversary of ...

  18. The dynamics of energy technologies and global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gruebler, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Victor, D.G.

    1999-08-01

    Typology for technology analysis is presented and methods to analyze the impact of technological changes on the global environment, especially global warming are discussed, focusing on energy technologies Much improved treatment of technology is possible using both historical analysis and new modelling techniques. In the historical record characteristics 'learning rates' are identified that allow simple quantified characterization of the improvement in cost and performance due to cumulative experience and investments. Patterns, processes and timescales typifying the diffusion of new technologies in competitive markets are identified. Technologies that are long-lived and are components of interlocking networks require the longest time to diffuse and co-evolve with other technologies in the network; such network effects yield high barriers to entry even for superior competitors. These observations allow improvements to modelling of technological change and its consequences for global environmental change. One is that the replacement of long-lived infrastructures over time has also replaced the fuels that power the economy to yield progressively more energy per unit of carbon pollution - from coal to oil to gas. Such replacement has 'decarbonized' the global primary energy supply 0.3% per year. Most baseline projections for emissions of carbon ignore this historical trend and show little decarbonization. A second improvement is that by incorporating learning curves and uncertainty into micro scale models it is possible to endogenously generate patterns of technological choice that mirror the real world. Thirdly, learning phenomena can be included stylistically in macro-scale models. Arriving on that path by the year 2100 depends on intervening actions, such as incentives to promote greater diversity in technology. 112 refs., 15 figs., 3 tabs.

  19. Global farm animal production and global warming: impacting and mitigating climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koneswaran, Gowri; Nierenberg, Danielle

    2008-05-01

    The farm animal sector is the single largest anthropogenic user of land, contributing to many environmental problems, including global warming and climate change. The aim of this study was to synthesize and expand upon existing data on the contribution of farm animal production to climate change. We analyzed the scientific literature on farm animal production and documented greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as various mitigation strategies. An analysis of meat, egg, and milk production encompasses not only the direct rearing and slaughtering of animals, but also grain and fertilizer production for animal feed, waste storage and disposal, water use, and energy expenditures on farms and in transporting feed and finished animal products, among other key impacts of the production process as a whole. Immediate and far-reaching changes in current animal agriculture practices and consumption patterns are both critical and timely if GHGs from the farm animal sector are to be mitigated.

  20. Engaging Undergraduates in Methods of Communicating Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, C.; Colgan, M. W.; Humphreys, R. R.

    2010-12-01

    Global Climate Change has become a politically contentious issue in large part because of the failure of scientists to effectively communicate this complex subject to the general public. In a Global Change class, offered within a science department and therefore focused primarily on the underlying science, we have incorporated a citizen science module into the course to raise awareness among future scientists to the importance of communicating information to a broad and diverse audience. The citizen science component of this course focuses on how the predicted climate changes will alter the ecologic and economic landscape of the southeastern region. Helping potential scientists to learn to effectively communicate with the general public is particularly poignant for this predominate southern student body. A Pew Research Center for the People and the Press study found that less than 50% of Southerners surveyed felt that global warming is a very serious problem and over 30% of Southerners did not believe that there was any credible evidence that the Earth is warming. This interdisciplinary and topical nature of the course attracts student from a variety of disciplines, which provides the class with a cross section of students not typically found in most geology classes. This mixture provides a diversity of skills and interest that leads to success of the Citizen Science component. This learning approach was adapted from an education module developed through the Earth System Science Education Alliance and a newly developed component to that program on citizen science. Student teams developed several citizen science-related public service announcements concerning projected global change effects on Charleston and the South Carolina area. The scenario concerned the development of an information campaign for the City of Charleston, culminating with the student presentations on their findings to City officials. Through this real-life process, the students developed new

  1. Plutonium challenges. Changing dimensions of global cooperation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oi, Noboru

    1998-01-01

    Global developoments in the 1990s have presented the international community with a new and serious challenge: a growing accumulation of plutonium originating from both civilian and military nuclear programmes. It arises from a number of developments. In this article, selected aspects of the issue of plutonium management in civilian nuclear programmes are discussed over a longer term perspective in the context of global cooperation and the IAEA's own role, which is evolving in response to the interests of its Member States. It draws upon discussions at international fora, including the International Symposium on Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Reactor Strategies in Jun 1997

  2. U.S. Global Change Research Program Budget Crosscut

    Data.gov (United States)

    Office of Science and Technology Policy, Executive Office of the President — U.S. Global Change Research Program budget authority for Agency activities in which the primary focus is on:Observations, research, and analysis of climate change...

  3. Global and Mediterranean climate change: a short summary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciardini, Virginia; Contessa, Gian Marco; Falsaperla, Rosaria; Gómez-Amo, José Luis; Meloni, Daniela; Monteleone, Francesco; Pace, Giandomenico; Piacentino, Salvatore; Sferlazzo, Damiano; di Sarra, Alcide

    2016-01-01

    Observed changes at the global scale. An increase of the annual mean global temperature and changes of other climate parameters have been observed in the last century. The global temperature and the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases are changing at a very fast pace compared to those found in palaeoclimate records. Changes in the Mediterranean. Variations of some climate change indicators can be much larger at the local than at the global scale, and the Mediterranean has been indicated among the regions most sensitive to climate change, also due to the increasing anthropogenic pressure. Model projections for the Mediterranean foresee further warming, droughts, and long-lasting modifications. Regional climate changes impact health and ecosystems, creating new risks, determined not only by weather events, but also by changing exposures and vulnerabilities. These issues, and in particular those regarding occupational safety, have not been sufficiently addressed to date.

  4. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE--THE TECHNOLOGY CHALLENGE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations which are at least partly responsible for the roughly 0.7% degree C global warming earth has experienced since the industrial revolution. With industrial activit...

  5. Changing global capitalism and the growth of the Indian economy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jørgen Dige

    The paper argues that one of the reasons for India's continued growth is that India's economy increasingly fall in line with recent global economic changes.......The paper argues that one of the reasons for India's continued growth is that India's economy increasingly fall in line with recent global economic changes....

  6. Global Responses to Potential Climate Change: A Simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Mary Louise; Mowry, George

    This interdisciplinary five-day unit provides students with an understanding of the issues in the debate on global climate change. Introductory lessons enhance understanding of the "greenhouse gases" and their sources with possible global effects of climate change. Students then roleplay negotiators from 10 nations in a simulation of the…

  7. Global Envelope Tests for Spatial Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Myllymäki, Mari; Mrkvička, Tomáš; Grabarnik, Pavel

    2017-01-01

    Envelope tests are a popular tool in spatial statistics, where they are used in goodness-of-fit testing. These tests graphically compare an empirical function T(r) with its simulated counterparts from the null model. However, the type I error probability α is conventionally controlled for a fixed d......) the construction of envelopes for a deviation test. These new tests allow the a priori selection of the global α and they yield p-values. We illustrate these tests using simulated and real point pattern data....

  8. Global envelope tests for spatial processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Myllymäki, Mari; Mrkvička, Tomáš; Grabarnik, Pavel

    Envelope tests are a popular tool in spatial statistics, where they are used in goodness-of-fit testing. These tests graphically compare an empirical function T(r) with its simulated counterparts from the null model. However, the type I error probability α is conventionally controlled for a fixed......) the construction of envelopes for a deviation test. These new tests allow the a priori selection of the global α and they yield p-values. We illustrate these tests using simulated and real point pattern data....

  9. Role of social science in global environmental change: case of urbanisation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Njiro, E

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Global environmental changes, such as globalisation, involve accelerated interconnections and interdependent processes that require an integrated and interdisciplinary approach. Because human activities are most significant in their negative effects...

  10. European network for research in global change (ENRICH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghazi, A. [European Commission, Bruxelles (Belgium). DG XII/JRC

    1995-12-31

    While approaching the beginning of the twenty first century, the scientific community is faced with the formidable tasks of monitoring and detecting, understanding and predicting changes in the Earth System and its interactions with human beings. A crucial challenge is to make scientific research results accessible and usable for those involved in the decision making process related to the concept of Sustainable Development. Major international scientific programmes under the umbrella of ICSU, such as the IGBP and WCRP, are dealing with these issues. Although there exist many well developed global change research programmes in several European countries and effective collaboration networks between research institutes, there is an urgent need for overall communication with a view to promoting wider international links ensuring complementarity, synergy and coherence. Recognizing the importance of promoting coherence in research and utilising research results for various European Union (EU) policies, the European Commissioner responsible for Science, Research and Development wrote in March 1992 to all the EU Research Ministers to propose an initiative in this domain. In a rapid response, a group of Senior Experts from the EU Member States was set up in April 1992. This Group established a Task Force to develop the concept of the European Network for Research In Global CHange (ENRICH) which was approved in July 1993

  11. Outcome and value uncertainties in global-change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammitt, J.K.

    1995-01-01

    Choices among environmental policies can be informed by analysis of the potential physical, biological, and social outcomes of alternative choices, and analysis of social preferences among these outcomes. Frequently, however, the consequences of alternative policies cannot be accurately predicted because of substantial outcome uncertainties concerning physical, chemical, biological, and social processes linking policy choices to consequences. Similarly, assessments of social preferences among alternative outcomes are limited by value uncertainties arising from limitations of moral principles, the absence of economic markets for many environmental attributes, and other factors. Outcome and value uncertainties relevant to global-change policy are described and their magnitudes are examined for two cases: stratospheric-ozone depletion and global climate change. Analysis of information available in the mid 1980s, when international ozone regulations were adopted, suggests that contemporary uncertainties surrounding CFC emissions and the atmospheric response were so large that plausible ozone depletion, absent regulation, ranged from negligible to catastrophic, a range that exceeded the plausible effect of the regulations considered. Analysis of climate change suggests that, important as outcome uncertainties are, uncertainties about values may be even more important for policy choice. 53 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs

  12. Global change and conservation triage on National Wildlife Refuges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Fred A.; Eaton, Mitchell; McMahon, Gerard; Raye Nilius,; Mike Bryant,; Dave Case,; Martin, Julien; Wood, Nathan J.; Laura Taylor,

    2015-01-01

    National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in the United States play an important role in the adaptation of social-ecological systems to climate change, land-use change, and other global-change processes. Coastal refuges are already experiencing threats from sea-level rise and other change processes that are largely beyond their ability to influence, while at the same time facing tighter budgets and reduced staff. We engaged in workshops with NWR managers along the U.S. Atlantic coast to understand the problems they face from global-change processes and began a multidisciplinary collaboration to use decision science to help address them. We are applying a values-focused approach to base management decisions on the resource objectives of land managers, as well as those of stakeholders who may benefit from the goods and services produced by a refuge. Two insights that emerged from our workshops were a conspicuous mismatch between the scale at which management can influence outcomes and the scale of environmental processes, and the need to consider objectives related to ecosystem goods and services that traditionally have not been explicitly considered by refuges (e.g., protection from storm surge). The broadening of objectives complicates the decision-making process, but also provides opportunities for collaboration with stakeholders who may have agendas different from those of the refuge, as well as an opportunity for addressing problems across scales. From a practical perspective, we recognized the need to (1) efficiently allocate limited staff time and budgets for short-term management of existing programs and resources under the current refuge design and (2) develop long-term priorities for acquiring or protecting new land/habitat to supplement or replace the existing refuge footprint and thus sustain refuge values as the system evolves over time. Structuring the decision-making problem in this manner facilitated a better understanding of the issues of scale and suggested

  13. Global change and conservation triage on National Wildlife Refuges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred A. Johnson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs in the United States play an important role in the adaptation of social-ecological systems to climate change, land-use change, and other global-change processes. Coastal refuges are already experiencing threats from sea-level rise and other change processes that are largely beyond their ability to influence, while at the same time facing tighter budgets and reduced staff. We engaged in workshops with NWR managers along the U.S. Atlantic coast to understand the problems they face from global-change processes and began a multidisciplinary collaboration to use decision science to help address them. We are applying a values-focused approach to base management decisions on the resource objectives of land managers, as well as those of stakeholders who may benefit from the goods and services produced by a refuge. Two insights that emerged from our workshops were a conspicuous mismatch between the scale at which management can influence outcomes and the scale of environmental processes, and the need to consider objectives related to ecosystem goods and services that traditionally have not been explicitly considered by refuges (e.g., protection from storm surge. The broadening of objectives complicates the decision-making process, but also provides opportunities for collaboration with stakeholders who may have agendas different from those of the refuge, as well as an opportunity for addressing problems across scales. From a practical perspective, we recognized the need to (1 efficiently allocate limited staff time and budgets for short-term management of existing programs and resources under the current refuge design and (2 develop long-term priorities for acquiring or protecting new land/habitat to supplement or replace the existing refuge footprint and thus sustain refuge values as the system evolves over time. Structuring the decision-making problem in this manner facilitated a better understanding of the issues of

  14. Climate of Tajikistan in connection with global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khakimov, F.Kh.; Mirzokhonova, S.O.; Mirzokhonava, N.A.

    2006-01-01

    The analysis of global climate change for different periods and its consequences on regional climate is given. The chronology of climate change in Tajikistan in various regions and the reasons leading or resulted to these changes are changes are shown as well

  15. Global scene layout modulates contextual learning in change detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conci, Markus; Müller, Hermann J

    2014-01-01

    Change in the visual scene often goes unnoticed - a phenomenon referred to as "change blindness." This study examined whether the hierarchical structure, i.e., the global-local layout of a scene can influence performance in a one-shot change detection paradigm. To this end, natural scenes of a laid breakfast table were presented, and observers were asked to locate the onset of a new local object. Importantly, the global structure of the scene was manipulated by varying the relations among objects in the scene layouts. The very same items were either presented as global-congruent (typical) layouts or as global-incongruent (random) arrangements. Change blindness was less severe for congruent than for incongruent displays, and this congruency benefit increased with the duration of the experiment. These findings show that global layouts are learned, supporting detection of local changes with enhanced efficiency. However, performance was not affected by scene congruency in a subsequent control experiment that required observers to localize a static discontinuity (i.e., an object that was missing from the repeated layouts). Our results thus show that learning of the global layout is particularly linked to the local objects. Taken together, our results reveal an effect of "global precedence" in natural scenes. We suggest that relational properties within the hierarchy of a natural scene are governed, in particular, by global image analysis, reducing change blindness for local objects through scene learning.

  16. A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verburg, Peter H; Ellis, Erle C; Letourneau, Aurelien

    2011-01-01

    Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.

  17. Global monopoles can change Universe's topology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marunović, Anja, E-mail: a.marunovic@uu.nl; Prokopec, Tomislav, E-mail: t.prokopec@uu.nl

    2016-05-10

    If the Universe undergoes a phase transition, at which global monopoles are created or destroyed, topology of its spatial sections can change. More specifically, by making use of Myers' theorem, we show that, after a transition in which global monopoles form, spatial sections of a spatially flat, infinite Universe becomes finite and closed. This implies that global monopoles can change the topology of Universe's spatial sections (from infinite and open to finite and closed). Global monopoles cannot alter the topology of the space-time manifold.

  18. Global monopoles can change Universe's topology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marunović, Anja; Prokopec, Tomislav

    2016-01-01

    If the Universe undergoes a phase transition, at which global monopoles are created or destroyed, topology of its spatial sections can change. More specifically, by making use of Myers' theorem, we show that, after a transition in which global monopoles form, spatial sections of a spatially flat, infinite Universe becomes finite and closed. This implies that global monopoles can change the topology of Universe's spatial sections (from infinite and open to finite and closed). Global monopoles cannot alter the topology of the space-time manifold.

  19. Marine viruses and global climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Danovaro, R.; Corinaldesi, C.; Dell'Anno, A.; Fuhrman, J.A.; Middelburg, J.J.; Noble, R.T.; Suttle, C.A.

    2011-01-01

    Sea-surface warming, sea-ice melting and related freshening, changes in circulation and mixing regimes, and ocean acidification induced by the present climate changes are modifying marine ecosystem structure and function and have the potential to alter the cycling of carbon and nutrients in surface

  20. Global Climate Change: National Security Implications

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pumphrey, Carolyn

    2008-01-01

    .... But this notion was generally scoffed at. Over the course of the 20th century, the scientific community gradually came to terms with this theory and began to regard climate change even rapid climate change as more than a distant possibility...

  1. Global Climate Change and Infectious Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EK Shuman

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is occurring as a result of warming of the earth’s atmosphere due to human activity generating excess amounts of greenhouse gases. Because of its potential impact on the hydrologic cycle and severe weather events, climate change is expected to have an enormous effect on human health, including on the burden and distribution of many infectious diseases. The infectious diseases that will be most affected by climate change include those that are spread by insect vectors and by contaminated water. The burden of adverse health effects due to these infectious diseases will fall primarily on developing countries, while it is the developed countries that are primarily responsible for climate change. It is up to governments and individuals to take the lead in halting climate change, and we must increase our understanding of the ecology of infectious diseases in order to protect vulnerable populations.

  2. The BRICS on climate change global governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Augusto Leal Rinaldi

    2016-12-01

    Este artigo objetiva avaliar a evolução da posição do BRICS na governança global sobre mudança climática. Discute-se as implicações desse posicionamento para o papel do grupo neste tema. A partir da análise dos principais regimes e acordos, argumentamos que embora haja a disposição de agir nos fóruns multilaterais, eles enfrentam uma série de constrangimentos que dificultam a adoção de uma posição comum.

  3. Climate Change and Expected Impacts on the Global Water Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rind, David; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    How the elements of the global hydrologic cycle may respond to climate change is reviewed, first from a discussion of the physical sensitivity of these elements to changes in temperature, and then from a comparison of observations of hydrologic changes over the past 100 million years. Observations of current changes in the hydrologic cycle are then compared with projected future changes given the prospect of global warming. It is shown that some of the projections come close to matching the estimated hydrologic changes that occurred long ago when the earth was very warm.

  4. Global Change Research Program releases new strategic plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    2012-05-01

    Global Change Research Program releases new strategic plan A new 10-year strategic plan released by the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) on 27 April calls for the federal interagency program to focus on four key goals during 2012-2021 to coordinate federal research efforts related to global change. The goals include advancing scientific knowledge of the integrated natural and human components of the Earth system; providing the scientific basis to inform and enable timely decisions on adaptation and mitigation; building sustained assessment capacity that improves the nation's ability to understand, anticipate, and respond to global change impacts and vulnerabilities; and advancing communications and education to broaden understanding of global change and develop the scientific workforce of the future. The goals and related objectives “recognize that to respond effectively to global change will require a deep understanding of the integrated Earth system—an understanding that incorporates physical, chemical, biological and behavioral information,” the plan states. “It is no longer enough to study the isolated physical, chemical, and biological factors affecting global change,” said USGCRP executive director Tom Armstrong.

  5. SOLVING GLOBAL PROBLEMS USING COLLABORATIVE DESIGN PROCESSES

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lenau, Torben Anker; Mejborn, Christina Okai

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we argue that use of collaborative design processes is a powerful means of bringing together different stakeholders and generating ideas in complex design situations. The collaborative design process was used in a workshop with international participants where the goal was to propose...... forward proposed solutions for how to design, brand and make business models for how to solve aspects of the sanitation problem. The workshop showed that it was possible to work freely with such a taboo topic and that in particular the use of visualisation tools, i.e. drawing posters and building simple...

  6. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

    2012-09-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

  7. Terrestrial Ecosystem Responses to Global Change: A Research Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ecosystems Working Group,

    1998-09-23

    Uncertainty about the magnitude of global change effects on terrestrial ecosystems and consequent feedbacks to the atmosphere impedes sound policy planning at regional, national, and global scales. A strategy to reduce these uncertainties must include a substantial increase in funding for large-scale ecosystem experiments and a careful prioritization of research efforts. Prioritization criteria should be based on the magnitude of potential changes in environmental properties of concern to society, including productivity; biodiversity; the storage and cycling of carbon, water, and nutrients; and sensitivity of specific ecosystems to environmental change. A research strategy is proposed that builds on existing knowledge of ecosystem responses to global change by (1) expanding the spatial and temporal scale of experimental ecosystem manipulations to include processes known to occur at large scales and over long time periods; (2) quantifying poorly understood linkages among processes through the use of experiments that manipulate multiple interacting environmental factors over a broader range of relevant conditions than did past experiments; and (3) prioritizing ecosystems for major experimental manipulations on the basis of potential positive and negative impacts on ecosystem properties and processes of intrinsic and/or utilitarian value to humans and on feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere. Models and experiments are equally important for developing process-level understanding into a predictive capability. To support both the development and testing of mechanistic ecosystem models, a two-tiered design of ecosystem experiments should be used. This design should include both (1) large-scale manipulative experiments for comprehensive testing of integrated ecosystem models and (2) multifactor, multilevel experiments for parameterization of process models across the critical range of interacting environmental factors (CO{sub 2}, temperature, water

  8. Global Climate Change: Three Policy Perspectives

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Parker, Larry; Blodgett, John

    2008-01-01

    The 1992 U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change requires that signatories, including the United States, establish policies for constraining future emission levels of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2). The George H. W...

  9. Business Leadership in Global Climate Change Responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esty, Daniel C; Bell, Michelle L

    2018-04-01

    In the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement, 195 countries committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in recognition of the scientific consensus on the consequences of climate change, including substantial public health burdens. In June 2017, however, US president Donald Trump announced that the United States would not implement the Paris Agreement. We highlight the business community's backing for climate change action in the United States. Just as the US federal government is backing away from its Paris commitments, many corporate executives are recognizing the need to address the greenhouse gas emissions of their companies and the business logic of strong environmental, social, and governance practices more generally. We conclude that climate change could emerge as an issue on which the business and public health communities might align and provide leadership.

  10. Estimating multi-period global cost efficiency and productivity change of systems with network structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tohidnia, S.; Tohidi, G.

    2018-02-01

    The current paper develops three different ways to measure the multi-period global cost efficiency for homogeneous networks of processes when the prices of exogenous inputs are known at all time periods. A multi-period network data envelopment analysis model is presented to measure the minimum cost of the network system based on the global production possibility set. We show that there is a relationship between the multi-period global cost efficiency of network system and its subsystems, and also its processes. The proposed model is applied to compute the global cost Malmquist productivity index for measuring the productivity changes of network system and each of its process between two time periods. This index is circular. Furthermore, we show that the productivity changes of network system can be defined as a weighted average of the process productivity changes. Finally, a numerical example will be presented to illustrate the proposed approach.

  11. Global Change Effects on Plant-Soil Interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dam, Marie

    (Paper III). Furthermore, by way of meta-analysis, the role of organisms in global change effects on ecosystem function is modelled (Paper IV). Among CO2, warming and summer drought, CO2 is the factor most consistently impacting soil organisms. CO2 increases abundance of microorganisms and nematodes...... suggest that not only the global change effects on established ecosystems, but also the global change effects on plant community composition as well as land use management may determine the composition and function of soil food webs in the future.......Global change is expected to increasingly affect composition and functioning of soil communities. In terrestrial ecosystems, the plant-soil interactions will be of particular importance for the ecosystem response, including feed-back responses that may further increase climate change. The aim...

  12. Changes in the global methane budget since 2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bousquet, P.; Saunois, M.; Canadell, J.; Poulter, B.; Peregon, A.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Etiope, G.; Bastviken, D.; Lamarque, J. F.; Ciais, P.; CH4, G. C. P.

    2015-12-01

    Atmospheric methane is the second anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, with a 20% contribution to climate forcing since pre-industrial times. With a lifetime around 10 years in the atmosphere and a diversity of emission types, methane is an important target for climate change mitigation. Observations of atmospheric methane began in 1978, reached global coverage after 1983, and now include a large variety of in-situ and remote-sensed observations from the surface or from space. These data are assimilated in atmospheric inversion to infer methane emissions and sinks (top-down). In parallel, a large international effort is conducted to model processes (bottom-up) emitting methane at the surface (e.g. wetland emissions) or destroying methane in the atmosphere (e.g. OH radicals). Although sources and sinks of methane are identified, large uncertainties remain in their spatio-temporal quantification. Here, we present a synthesis of global and regional methane emissions and sinks since 2000 using an integrated approach to combine: atmospheric measurements, chemistry-transport models, ecosystem models, emission inventories, and climate-chemistry models. Robust and not robust emission estimates are extracted and presented from an ensemble of atmospheric inversions and of process-based models. The three most striking results imply : - a probable overestimation of Chinese methane emission and trend since 2000, - a mostly tropical origin (75%) of emission changes from 2005 to 2010, - a balanced (but still uncertain) partition of emission changes, between 2005 and 2010, between natural (wetlands) and anthropogenic (agriculture & waste, coal, biomass burning) emissions.

  13. Information Technologies and Globalization: New Perspectives of Teaching Learning Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Irshad

    2008-01-01

    This article discusses how information technologies and globalization have opened new avenues and horizons for educators and learners. It discusses different experiences of using information and communication technologies (ICTs) in teaching learning process the world over in the age of globalization. It focuses on the ways these new trends have…

  14. Cognitive Development Includes Global and Domain-Specific Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kail, Robert V.

    2004-01-01

    Global accounts of cognitive development, best illustrated by Piaget's theory, dominated the field until the 1970s and 1980s, when they were gradually superseded by domain-specific accounts. In this article I present evidence suggesting that both global and domain-specific processes make important contributions to cognitive development, and I…

  15. Climate change at global and regional scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dufresne, J.L.; Royer, J.F.

    2008-01-01

    In support of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that should appear in early 2007, modelling groups world-wide have performed a huge coordinated exercise of climate change runs for the 20. and 21. century. In this paper we present the results of the two french climate models, from CNRM and IPSL. In particular we emphasize the progress made since the previous IPCC report and we identify which results are comparable among models and which strongly differ. (authors)

  16. Global Warming and Changing Temperature Patterns over Mauritius

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    at Pamplemousses decreased by a fraction of a degree between 1900 and 1935. By 1950, this temperature decrease appears to have been recovered. In this paper, long term data for Mauritius have been analysed in the context of global warming. The warming of the global climate systems has changed the temperature ...

  17. Postgraduate international courses on global environmental change - Final report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroeze, C.; Hofstra, N.; Leemans, R.; Metzger, M.J.; Pattberg, P.; Potting, J.

    2011-01-01

    In dit project zijn drie internationale summer schools georganiseerd voor promovendi: * De cursus ‘Understanding global environmental change; * De cursus ‘Earth System Governance’, gericht op sociaal-wetenschappelijke promovendi; * De cursus ‘Integrated Assessment of Global Environmental Change’,

  18. Self-organizing change? On drivers, causes and global environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Elverfeldt, Kirsten; Embleton-Hamann, Christine; Slaymaker, Olav

    2016-01-01

    Within global environmental change research, certain external drivers generally are assumed to cause the environmental system to change. The most commonly considered drivers are relief, sea level, hydroclimate, and/or people. However, complexity theory and self-organizing systems provide a very different framework and means of explanation. Self-organization - understood as the aggregate processes internal to an environmental system that lead to a distinctive spatial, temporal, or other organization - reduces the possibility of implicating a specific process as being causal. The principle of equifinality, whereby two or more different drivers can generate the same form, has long been recognized within a process-response framework, as well as the concept of divergence, which states that similar causes or processes result in different effects. Both ideas differ from self-organization in that they (i) deal with drivers external to the system and (ii) imply concrete cause-and-effect relations that might be difficult to discern. The assumption is, however, that careful study will eventually lead to the true causes and processes. Studies of self-organization deal with the ways in which internal processes interact and may drive a system toward an instability threshold, the so-called bifurcation point. At this point, the system develops by chance and no single external or internal cause for the change can be defined. For research into environmental change this is a crucial theory for two reasons:

  19. World Community Process of Decision Making on Global Warming Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    - Sylvestre Emane Nssoukui

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on organizational processes for global warming solutions following the example of the United Nations conferences on the environment and the development in 1992 and the Kyoto Protocol in 1997.

  20. Monitoring biodiversity change through effective global coordination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Navarro, Laetitia M.; Fernandez, Nestor; Guerra, Carlos; Guralnick, Rob; Kissling, W. Daniel; Londono, Maria Cecilia; Muller-Karger, Frank; Turak, Eren; El Serafy, G.Y.H.; Balvanera, Patricia; Authors, More

    2017-01-01

    The ability to monitor changes in biodiversity, and their societal impact, is critical to conserving species and managing ecosystems. While emerging technologies increase the breadth and reach of data acquisition, monitoring efforts are still spatially and temporally fragmented, and taxonomically

  1. Georgian climate change under global warming conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariam Elizbarashvili

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Georgian Climate change has been considered comprehensively, taking into account World Meteorological Organization recommendations and recent observation data. On the basis of mean temperature and precipitation decadal trend geo-information maps for 1936–2012 years period, Georgian territory zoning has been carried out and for each areas climate indices main trends have been studied, that best characterize climate change - cold and hot days, tropical nights, vegetation period duration, diurnal maximum precipitation, maximum five-day total precipitation, precipitation intensity simple index, precipitation days number of at least 10 mm, 20 mm and 50 mm, rainy and rainless periods duration. Trends of temperature indices are statistically significant. On the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland at high confidence level cold and hot days and tropical nights number changes are statistically significant. On eastern Georgia plains at high level of statistical significance, the change of all considered temperature indices has been fixed except for the number of hot days. In mountainous areas only hot day number increasing is significant. Trends of most moisture indices are statistically insignificant. While keeping Georgian climate change current trends, precipitation amount on the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland, as well as in some parts of Western Caucasus to the end of the century will increase by 50% and amounts to 3000 and 6000 mm, respectively this will strengthen humidity of those areas. Besides increasing of rainy period duration may constitute the risk for flooding and high waters. On eastern Georgia plains, in particular Kvemo Kartli, annual precipitation amount will decrease by 50% or more, and will be only 150–200 mm and the precipitation daily maximum will decrease by about 20 mm and be only 10–15 mm, which of course will increase the intensity of desertification of steppe and semi-desert landscapes.

  2. Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schröter, D.; Cramer, W.; Leemans, R.; Prentice, I.C.; Araujo, M.B.; Arnell, N.W.; Bondeau, A.; Brugmann, H.; Carter, T.R.; Gracia, C.A.; Vega-Leinert, de la A.C.; Erhard, M.; Ewert, F.; Glendining, M.; House, J.I.; Kankaanpää, S.; Klein, R.J.T.; Lavorel, S.; Lindner, M.; Metzger, M.J.; Meyer, J.; Mitchell, T.; Reginster, I.; Rounsevell, M.; Sabate, S.; Stich, S.; Smith, B.; Smith, J.; Smith, P.; Sykes, M.T.; Thonicke, K.; Thuiller, W.; Tuck, G.; Zaehle, S.; Zierl, B.

    2005-01-01

    Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in

  3. Global climate change impacts in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-01

    This report summarizes the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. It is largely based on results of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a and integrates those results wit...

  4. International Peer Collaboration to Learn about Global Climate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korsager, Majken; Slotta, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is not local; it is global. This means that many environmental issues related to climate change are not geographically limited and hence concern humans in more than one location. There is a growing body of research indicating that today's increased climate change is caused by human activities and our modern lifestyle. Consequently,…

  5. Assessing Elementary Science Methods Students' Understanding about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Julie L.; Lindgren, Joan; Bleicher, Robert

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change, referred to as climate change in this paper, has become an important planetary issue, and given that K-12 students have numerous alternative conceptions or lack of prior knowledge, it is critical that teachers have an understanding of the fundamental science underlying climate change. Teachers need to understand the natural…

  6. Global perceived stress predicts cognitive change among older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz, Elizabeth; Sliwinski, Martin J; Scott, Stacey B; Hofer, Scott

    2015-09-01

    Research on stress and cognitive aging has primarily focused on examining the effects of biological and psychosocial indicators of stress, with little attention provided to examining the association between perceived stress and cognitive aging. We examined the longitudinal association between global perceived stress (GPS) and cognitive change among 116 older adults (M(age) = 80, SD = 6.40, range = 67-96) in a repeated measurement burst design. Bursts of 6 daily cognitive assessments were repeated every 6 months over a 2-year period, with self-reported GPS assessed at the start of every burst. Using a double-exponential learning model, 2 parameters were estimated: (a) asymptotic level (peak performance), and (b) asymptotic change (the rate at which peak performance changed across bursts). We hypothesized that greater GPS would predict slowed performance in tasks of attention, working memory, and speed of processing and that increases in GPS across time would predict cognitive slowing. Results from latent growth curve analyses were consistent with our first hypothesis and indicated that level of GPS predicted cognitive slowing across time. Changes in GPS did not predict cognitive slowing. This study extends previous findings by demonstrating a prospective association between level of GPS and cognitive slowing across a 2-year period, highlighting the role of psychological stress as a risk factor for poor cognitive function. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Global Perceived Stress Predicts Cognitive Change among Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz, Elizabeth; Sliwinski, Martin J.; Scott, Stacey B.; Hofer, Scott

    2015-01-01

    Research on stress and cognitive aging has primarily focused on examining the effects of biological and psychosocial indicators of stress with little attention provided to examining the association between perceived stress and cognitive aging. We examined the longitudinal association between global perceived stress (GPS) and cognitive change among 116 older adults (Mage = 80, SD = 6.40, range: 67–96) in a repeated measurement burst design. Bursts of six daily cognitive assessments were repeated every six months over a two-year period with self-reported GPS assessed at the start of every burst. Using a double-exponential learning model, two parameters were estimated: 1) asymptotic level (peak performance), and 2) asymptotic change (the rate in which peak performance changed across bursts). We hypothesized that greater GPS would predict slowed performance in tasks of attention, working memory, and speed of processing and that increases in GPS across time would predict cognitive slowing. Results from latent growth curve analyses were consistent with our first hypothesis and indicated that level of GPS predicted cognitive slowing across time. Changes in GPS did not predict cognitive slowing. This study extends previous findings by demonstrating a prospective association between level of GPS and cognitive slowing across a two-year period highlighting the role of psychological stress as a risk factor for poor cognitive function. PMID:26121285

  8. Improving models to predict phenological responses to global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richardson, Andrew D. [Harvard College, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-11-25

    The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digital cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.

  9. FOREST ECOSYSTEMS AND GLOBAL CHANGE: THE CASE STUDY OF INSUBRIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pautasso

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Forest ecosystems face multiple challenges due to climate change, invasive species, urbanization, land use change and the interactions between these global change drivers. This review provides an overview of such challenges for the case study of Insubria. Insubria is a region on the Southern side of the European Alps, famous for its stunning lakes (e.g., Como, Garda, Lugano, Maggiore, blessed by a relatively mild and humid climate, and shaped by the geologic fault line between the African and European plates. Global change impacts in Insubria pose a threat to its biodiversity and chestnut woodlands, particularly through modified winter forest fire regimes. Insubric biodiversity conservation, in turn, is essential to counteract the effects of climate change. Sustainable management of Insubric forests is made more difficult by rural abandonment, air pollution and invasive exotic species. There is a need to develop reliable long-term bio-indicators and to predict the shift of Insubric species, ecosystems and tree-lines due to rapid climate changes. Insubric studies on forests and global change call for enhanced international collaboration in forest management and research. Interdisciplinary approaches are needed to move from studies of single global change drivers to experiments, scenarios and models taking into account their combination and our responses to global change.

  10. Global warming: China’s contribution to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spracklen, Dominick V.

    2016-03-01

    Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel use in China have grown dramatically in the past few decades, yet it emerges that the country's relative contribution to global climate change has remained surprisingly constant. See Letter p.357

  11. Global Climate Change and Ocean Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spitzer, W.; Anderson, J.

    2011-12-01

    The New England Aquarium, collaborating with other aquariums across the country, is leading a national effort to enable aquariums and related informal science education institutions to effectively communicate the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on marine animals, habitats and ecosystems. Our goal is to build on visitors' emotional connection with ocean animals, connect to their deeply held values, help them understand causes and effects of climate change and motivate them to embrace effective solutions. Our objectives are to: (1) Build a national coalition of aquariums and related informal education institutions collaborating on climate change education; (2) Develop an interpretive framework for climate change and the ocean that is scientifically sound, research-based, field tested and evaluated; and (3) Build capacity of aquariums to interpret climate change via training for interpreters, interactive exhibits and activities and communities of practice for ongoing support. Centers of informal learning have the potential to bring important environmental issues to the public by presenting the facts, explaining the science, connecting with existing values and interests, and motivating concern and action. Centers that work with live animals (including aquariums, zoos, nature centers, national parks, national marine sanctuaries, etc.) are unique in that they attract large numbers of people of all ages (over 140 million in the US), have strong connections to the natural, and engage many visitors who may not come with a primary interest in science. Recent research indicates that that the public expects and trusts aquariums, zoos, and museums to communicate solutions to environmental and ocean issues, and to advance ocean conservation, and that climate change is the environmental issue of most concern to the public; Ironically, however, most people do not associate climate change with ocean health, or understand the critical role that the ocean plays in

  12. Global Climate Change: National Security Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-05-01

    would make sure nothing terribly bad happened. You could even take it to the extent of believing in a kind of homeostasis —there was a natural system...to recover. Beyond that, no one is willing to talk. We’re going to see shifts in the type of vegetation, and entire ecosystems will change. What... ecosystems .”6 • effects on public health as high temperatures and extreme weather likely lead to more heat-related mortality, pollution, storm

  13. Climate Change Mitigation Policies and Global Poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Hussein, Zekarias; Golub, Alla A.; Hertel, Thomas W.

    2012-01-01

    Mitigating the potential impacts of climate change is one of the leading environmental policy concerns of the 21st Century. However, there continues to be heated debate about the nature, content and, most importantly, about the impact of the policy actions needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. One major contributing factor is the lack of systematic evidence on the impact of mitigation policy on the welfare of the poor in developing countries. This paper provides quantitative evidence on t...

  14. Youth and new politics: Global changes: Local lives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Čičkarić Lilijana

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This is a short presentation of the study of youth political participation in the context of global social changes. The decline of the youth civic and political participation in last few decades resulted from individualization and privatization processes in everyday life and leisure time in contemporary world. It is, also, a product of disaffection of politics and politicians, and the high level of youth cynical political behavior. The decline of youth support for democracy in European countries is a direct construct of disaffection regarding the respect of democracy standards and mechanisms. There is a real shift from traditional politics of loyalty towards new choice politics or youth life-style politics.

  15. Geomagnetism, volcanoes, global climate change, and predictability. A progress report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. P. Gregori

    1994-06-01

    Full Text Available A model is investigated, by which the encounters of the solar system with dense interstellar clouds ought to trigger either geomagnetic field reversals or excursions, that produce extra electric currents within the Earth dynamo, that cause extra Joule's heating, that supplies volcanoes and endogenous processes. Volcanoes increase the Earth degassing into the atmosphere, hence the concentration of the minor atmospheric constituents, including the greenhouse gases, hence they affect climate temperature, glacier melting, sea level and global change. This investigation implies both theoretical studies and observational data handling on different time scales, including present day phenomena, instrumental data series, historical records, proxy data, and geological and palaeontological evidences. The state of the art is briefly outlined, mentioning some already completed achievements, investigations in progress, and future perspectives.

  16. Earth system science: A program for global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-01-01

    The Earth System Sciences Committee (ESSC) was appointed to consider directions for the NASA Earth-sciences program, with the following charge: review the science of the Earth as a system of interacting components; recommend an implementation strategy for Earth studies; and define the role of NASA in such a program. The challenge to the Earth system science is to develop the capability to predict those changes that will occur in the next decade to century, both naturally and in response to human activity. Sustained, long-term measurements of global variables; fundamental descriptions of the Earth and its history; research foci and process studies; development of Earth system models; an information system for Earth system science; coordination of Federal agencies; and international cooperation are examined.

  17. Domestic change in the face of European Integration and Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynggaard, Kennet

    2011-01-01

    as Europeanization - and trends which are usually seen as having a broader global application including market liberalization, the construction of global institutions and policies. While research concerned with domestic change in the face of European integration and globalization in itself is a reaction to pressing......Before the early 2000s, research on Europeanization and globalization developed largely independently of each other. Since then a limited, yet increasing, number of studies have shown an interest in investigating and differentiating between the domestic implications of European integration - known...

  18. Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsberg, H.S.

    2002-01-01

    Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

  19. U.S. insurance industry perspectives on global climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Mills, Evan

    2001-01-01

    The insurance industry stands to be impacted by global climate change, and also has considerable opportunity for participating in mitigation and adaptation. Weather-related events touch almost all types of insurance providers, although the degree of vulnerability varies substantially. U.S. insurers currently pay 60% of global losses from weather-related natural catastrophes, and these types of losses are expected to rise as a result of climate change. The effects of increased losses can lead ...

  20. GLOBAL WARMING, CLIMATE CHANGE AND TOURISM: A REVIEW OF LITERATURE

    OpenAIRE

    Ramasamy, Rajesh; Swamy, Anjaneya

    2015-01-01

    Global warming, climate change and tourism of late, have taken the centre stage of academic research. A raging debate is on apart from the popular writings and research articles published on the theme. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice since the mid 20th century”. This conceptual paper discussed...

  1. Territorial Manifestations of the Economical Influence Areas of Global Warming and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia Lopez, Y. G.; Perez-Peraza, J. A.; Velasco Herrera, V. M.

    2007-05-01

    Economic space is structured by the relationship between the anthropogenic and economic factors, with a dynamical evolution defined by the financial flows around the world and technology evolution. The global warming and the climate change are two different processes associated on the planet, due to different etiologies: the global warming is produced principally by anthropogenic effects, whereas the climate change its produced by physics and natural process on global earth system. Both phenomena produce economic impacts and territorial manifestation on the earth surface, which are different at different territorial scales, but with important influence on human activity. In this work, we carry out an holistic research (global impacts to the economy space) about the physical processes and anthropogenic impacts that affect directly on the climate change and global warming respectively, with territorial manifestations using geographic scales. We propose a classification on this territorial manifestations, according with the economical effects by the international trade and production of GHG´s in the world (global warming). The results of this research show that the global warming generates territorial manifestations, according with the three sectors of the world economy. We construct maps of influence areas of economic activity which have been affected in different ways by the Climatic Change and Global warming.

  2. Global Connectedness and Global Migration: Insights from the International Changing Academic Profession Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGinn, Michelle K.; Ratkovic, Snežana; Wolhunter, Charl C.

    2013-01-01

    The Changing Academic Profession (CAP) international survey was designed in part to consider the effects of globalization on the work context and activities of academics in 19 countries or regions around the world. This paper draws from a subset of these data to explore the extent to which academics are globally connected in their research and…

  3. Proceedings, 1995 meeting of the Northern Global Change Program; 1995 March 14-16; Pittsburgh, PA. : Introduction/Environmental Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    John Hom; Richard Birdsey; Kelly O' Brian; eds.

    1996-01-01

    Contains articles presented at the 1995 Northern Global Change Program meeting on the following topics: monitoring and predicting regional environmental change, responses of northern tree species to regional stress, responses of ecosystem processes to regional stress, forest and landscape responses to regional stress and management activities, human-forest interactions...

  4. Is This Global Warming? Communicating the Intangibles of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, L.; Henson, R.

    2004-05-01

    Unlike weather, which is immediate, tangible, and relevant on a daily basis, climate change is long-term, slow to evolve, and often difficult to relate to the public's daily concerns. By explaining global-change research to wide and diverse audiences through a variety of vehicles, including publications, exhibits, Web sites, and television B-roll, UCAR has gained experience and perspective on the challenges involved. This talk will explore some of the lessons learned and some of the key difficulties that face global-change communicators, including: --The lack of definitive findings on regional effects of global change -- The long time frame in which global change plays out, versus the short attention span of media, the public, and policy makers --The use of weather events as news pegs (they pique interest, but they may not be good exemplars of global change and are difficult to relate directly to changes in greenhouse-gas emissions) --The perils of the traditional journalistic technique of point-counterpoint in discussing climate change --The presence of strong personal/political convictions among various interest groups and how these affect the message(s) conveyed

  5. Global warming: a changing climate for hydro

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oud, E.

    1993-01-01

    This paper quantifies the benefits attributable to hydroelectric power generation in preventing carbon dioxide emissions from the use of thermal plants. It proposes that utilities and funding agencies consider the societal costs associated with the emission of CO 2 in power system planning. It also suggests that the industrialized countries should consider changing their funding practice and give more appropriate credits for the construction of hydro plants in developing countries, with a view to avoiding the construction and operation of fossil fuelled powerplants. (author)

  6. Global climate change and California agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, L.; Rains, W.; Kennedy, L.

    1991-01-01

    This paper has highlighted some of the impacts that a warmer climate may have on agriculture in California. Because of the state's diverse geomorphology it is difficult to predict what crops will grow in which locations under future climate regimes. However, the potential interactions between warmer temperatures, higher CO 2 concentrations, and the factors that affect plant and animal growth may have major consequences for the competitive position of the state's agriculture. Forward-thinking research and public policies are required to assure that responses to climate change will optimize production systems under future constraints

  7. The factor of local cultural specificity and process of globalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudnev, Viacheslav

    2012-12-01

    Cultural polymorphism is a difficult phenomenon, which has multiform influence on the society's life. The active interest of society to local folk knowledge in life-support activities and Nature using is one of the distinctive marks of modern time. This interest has fallen on the period of active transformations of environment as a result of industrial society's pressing on Nature, and the generating of new approaches in the studying of Nature and human activity based on the "technologies" of wild life. The success of humankind in creating artificial surroundings has led to both great success in improving the quality of peoples' lives, and also to problems with renewable resources and human health and to changing for the worse ecology. In 1992 the Unites Nations Conference on Environment and Development (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) set fixed standards defining global violations of the environment. The zAgenda 21', adopted at this Conference, focused on the necessity of new solutions for problems of the relationships between Nature and Society, mentioning interdisciplinary research as a positive way to search for solutions to new problems, and citing as a goal a zbalance of Nature, Society and Humans'. Pre-industrial society had a different experience in using Nature and solving problems of life-support activity under a regime of sparing nature. Experience has shown that Folk knowledge and Folk technology can, in a number of instances, actually assist in solving high level problems caused by human impact on the environment, e.g., farming methods, and, as a result offering possibilities for a more sound and at the same time effective basis for long-term sustainable production at the local level. The traditional cultures of Eurasia were engaged in agricultural pursuits and had acquired unique experiences in maintaining soil fertility and a technology which limited the impact they were having on the environment. The value of Folk heritage in exploiting the environment

  8. Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vörösmarty, C J; Green, P; Salisbury, J; Lammers, R B

    2000-07-14

    The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing to a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question.

  9. Gardening and urban landscaping: significant players in global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niinemets, Ulo; Peñuelas, Josep

    2008-02-01

    Global warming leads to shifts in vegetation types in given temperate environments. The fastest species movement is due to the globalized supply and use of exotic plants in gardening and urban landscaping. These standard practices circumvent dispersal limitations and biological and environmental stresses; they have three major global impacts: (i) the enhancement of biological invasions, (ii) the elevation of volatile organic compound emissions and the resulting increase in photochemical smog formation, and (iii) the enhancement of CO(2) fixation and water use by gardened plants. These global effects, none of which are currently considered in global-change scenarios, are increasingly amplified with further warming and urbanization. We urge for quantitative assessment of the global effects of gardening and urban landscaping.

  10. Maize production in terms of global climate changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bekavac Goran

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate changes and expected variability of climatic parameters represent a serious concern of the 21st century agriculture. At the global level, the further rise in temperature, changed quantity and distribution of precipitation, increased variability of climate parameters and the occurrence of extreme climate events are expected. In order to avoid, or at least reduce the negative effects of global climate change, several adaptation strategies are proposed. Adjustment of production technology and breeding for tolerance to changed environment are proposed as two most important adaptation measures.

  11. Process of globalization and basic traits of Serbian national character

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atlagić Marko

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In contemporary world globalization, along with many perplexities, increasingly takes on the universal/cosmopolitan character in spite of all geographical, national, racial, religious and alignment barriers. Information exchange, scientific achievements and technology are nowadays world process. Economy increasingly becomes global. Serbia and Serbian people have their own specific character, which is defined by three significant characteristics: sovereignty and territorial integrity, aspirations to social justice, the rule of people and democracy. The creators of global society should take into consideration these three important characteristics of Serbian people with which Serbian political elite is to familiarize them, for the sake of more rapid and complete process of integration of Serbs into global processes from both Serbia and its neighboring countries would benefit.

  12. [Global Health. Information for change. 4th report of the Italian Observatory on Global Health].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Global Health. Information for change. 4th report of the Italian Observatory on Global Health. InformAzione (InformAction) is the title of the last OISG report (Italian observatory on Global Health), dedicated to information and education, the essential bases for a conscious action aimed at decreasing inequalities. Increasing the investments in information, education and interventions oriented to global health may broaden the number of aware and informed citizens, able to start a dialogue, to make pressures to increase the interventions in favor of those in need.

  13. Role of Bioethanol in Global Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sheehan, John [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    1998-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has supported a research and development program for the establishment of renewable, biomass-derived, liquid fuels for the better part of the last twenty years. These 'biofuels' represent opportunities to respond to uncertainties about our energy security and the future health of our environment. Throughout its history, the Biofuels program has experienced an ongoing fiscal 'roller coaster'. Funding has ebbed and flowed with changing political and public attitudes about energy. The program was initiated in a flood of funding in the late 1970s related to the energy shortages experienced in that period. The flooding turned rapidly to drought as falling oil prices dissipated public concern about energy supplies. In the late 1980s, funding for the program slowly increased, driven by national security issues.

  14. Ecohydrology for compensation of Global Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Zalewski

    Full Text Available Water in the XXI century has become the primary factor for sustainable development, eradication of poverty and reversal of ecosystem degradation. Increasing water demand for agriculture and urbanisation, combined with pollution, eutrophication and amplification of the stochastic character of climatic processes, increases water limitations for ecosystems and societies. The transdisciplinary science of Ecohydrology, which has been developed in the framework of the International Hydrological Programme of UNESCO, provides a systemic approach, to regulate hydrology-ecosystem-society interplay towards: 1 slowing down the transfer of water from the atmosphere to the sea, still considered as a priority to reduce the severity of floods and droughts impact; 2 reducing input and regulating the allocation of excess nutrients and pollutants to aquatic ecosystems, toward reversing ecosystems degradation and improvement of human well being; and 3 harmonisation of ecosystem potential with societal needs within the framework of IWRM.

  15. Making climate change negotiable: The development of the Global Warming Potential index

    OpenAIRE

    Skodvin, Tora

    1999-01-01

    One important contribution from science to environmental negotiations is the provision of scientific models, methods and concepts that may serve as decision-making tools and that hence may assist policy-makers in developing adequate solutions to environmental problems. In the context of climate change, the Global Warming Potential index has served a significant role in the process of making climate change negotiable. The Global Warming Potential index, which is a methodology for comparing the...

  16. CHANGE RESISTANCE IN THE PROCESS OF CHANGE MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Polat TUNÇER

    2013-01-01

    Purpose of this article the resistance to change of the employees in the process of organizational change, in terms of change management is to handle. Made of the literature on the subject, the concepts of change management and resistance to change are examined and focused on the causes to resist and prevention methods its. In addition, in order to manage change successfully, the prevention or elimination of resistance to organizational change, it is necessary matters were discussed. Operati...

  17. Mercury from wildfires: Global emission inventories and sensitivity to 2000-2050 global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Aditya; Wu, Shiliang; Huang, Yaoxian; Liao, Hong; Kaplan, Jed O.

    2018-01-01

    We estimate the global Hg wildfire emissions for the 2000s and the potential impacts from the 2000-2050 changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions by combining statistical analysis with global data on vegetation type and coverage as well as fire activities. Global Hg wildfire emissions are estimated to be 612 Mg year-1. Africa is the dominant source region (43.8% of global emissions), followed by Eurasia (31%) and South America (16.6%). We find significant perturbations to wildfire emissions of Hg in the context of global change, driven by the projected changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions. 2000-2050 climate change could increase Hg emissions by 14% globally and regionally by 18% for South America, 14% for Africa and 13% for Eurasia. Projected changes in land use by 2050 could decrease the global Hg emissions from wildfires by 13% mainly driven by a decline in African emissions due to significant agricultural land expansion. Future land cover changes could lead to significant increases in Hg emissions over some regions (+32% North America, +14% Africa, +13% Eurasia). Potential enrichment of terrestrial ecosystems in 2050 in response to changes in Hg anthropogenic emissions could increase Hg wildfire emissions globally (+28%) and regionally (+19% North America, +20% South America, +24% Africa, +41% Eurasia). Our results indicate that the future evolution of climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions are all important factors affecting Hg wildfire emissions in the coming decades.

  18. The Worldviews Network: Transformative Global Change Education in Immersive Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, H.; Yu, K. C.; Gardiner, N.; McConville, D.; Connolly, R.; "Irving, Lindsay", L. S.

    2011-12-01

    own research to develop a library of immersive visualization stories and templates that explore ecological relationships across time at cosmic, global, and bioregional scales, with learning goals aligned to climate and earth science literacy principles. These experiential narratives are used to increase participants' awareness of global change issues as well as to engage them in dialogues and design processes focused on steps they can take within their own communities to systemically address these interconnected challenges. More than 600 digital planetariums in the U.S. collectively represent a pioneering opportunity for distributing Earth systems messages over large geographic areas. By placing the viewer-and Earth itself-within the context of the rest of the universe, digital planetariums can uniquely provide essential transcalar perspectives on the complex interdependencies of Earth's interacting physical and biological systems. The Worldviews Network is creating innovative, data-driven approaches for engaging the American public in dialogues about human-induced global changes.

  19. MANAGING CHANGE WHEN IMPLEMENTING BUSINESS PROCESS MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    VLAD BÃLÃNESCU

    2012-01-01

    In this paper I attempted to establish the link between business process management and change management. After the introduction, in the second chapter I made a short presentation of business process management, what the concept entails and prospects. The third chapter contains a definition of change management and types of changes that can occur in an organization when implementing Business Process Management. The fourth part of this paper contains two models for change and present how they...

  20. Critical Global Health: Responding to Poverty, Inequality and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCoy, David

    2017-01-01

    A recent article by Sol Benatar calls on the global health community to reassess its approach to twin crises of global poverty and climate change. I build on his article by challenging mainstream narratives that claim satisfactory progress in efforts to reduce poverty and improve health for all, and arguing that any eradication of poverty that is consistent with environmental sustainability will require a more explicit emphasis on the redistribution of power and wealth. I suggest that the global health community has been largely socialised into accepting that progress and future solutions can be attained through more neoliberal development, technological advancement and philanthropic endeavour and that a more critical global health is required. I propose three steps that the global health community should take: first, create more space for the social, political and political sciences within global health; second, be more prepared to act politically and challenge power; and third, do more to bridge the global-local divide in recognition of the fact that progressive change requires mobilisation from the bottom-up in conjunction with top-down policy and legislative change. PMID:28949467

  1. Promotion of Scientific Literacy on Global Warming by Process Drama

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pongsophon, Pongprapan; Yutakom, Naruemon; Boujaoude, Saouma B.

    2010-01-01

    This project aims to investigate how process drama promotes scientific literacy in the context of global warming. Thirty-one lower (n = 24) and upper (n = 7) secondary students of one secondary school in Bangkok, Thailand participated in a seven-day workshop which process drama strategy was implemented. In the workshop, the students were actively…

  2. Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E A

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.

  3. Development of Global Change Research in Developing Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sierra, Carlos A.; Yepes, Adriana P.

    2010-10-01

    Ecosystems and Global Change in the Context of the Neotropics; Medellín, Colombia, 19-20 May 2010; Research in most areas of global environmental change is overwhelmingly produced outside developing countries, which are usually consumers rather than producers of the knowledge associated with their natural resources. While there have been important recent advances in understanding the causes of global-¬scale changes and their consequences to the functioning of tropical ecosystems, there is still an important gap in the understanding of these changes at regional and national levels (where important political decisions are usually made). A symposium was held with the aim of surveying the current state of research activities in a small, developing country such as Colombia. It was jointly organized by the Research Center on Ecosystems and Global Change, Carbono and Bosques; the National University of Colombia at Medellín and the Colombian Ministry of the Environment, Housing, and Regional Development. This 2-¬day symposium gathered Colombian and international scientists involved in different areas of global environmental change, tropical ecosystems, and human societies.

  4. Defining health diplomacy: changing demands in the era of globalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katz, Rebecca; Kornblet, Sarah; Arnold, Grace; Lief, Eric; Fischer, Julie E

    2011-09-01

    Accelerated globalization has produced obvious changes in diplomatic purposes and practices. Health issues have become increasingly preeminent in the evolving global diplomacy agenda. More leaders in academia and policy are thinking about how to structure and utilize diplomacy in pursuit of global health goals. In this article, we describe the context, practice, and components of global health diplomacy, as applied operationally. We examine the foundations of various approaches to global health diplomacy, along with their implications for the policies shaping the international public health and foreign policy environments. Based on these observations, we propose a taxonomy for the subdiscipline. Expanding demands on global health diplomacy require a delicate combination of technical expertise, legal knowledge, and diplomatic skills that have not been systematically cultivated among either foreign service or global health professionals. Nonetheless, high expectations that global health initiatives will achieve development and diplomatic goals beyond the immediate technical objectives may be thwarted by this gap. The deepening links between health and foreign policy require both the diplomatic and global health communities to reexamine the skills, comprehension, and resources necessary to achieve their mutual objectives. © 2011 Milbank Memorial Fund. Published by Wiley Periodicals Inc.

  5. Defining Health Diplomacy: Changing Demands in the Era of Globalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katz, Rebecca; Kornblet, Sarah; Arnold, Grace; Lief, Eric; Fischer, Julie E

    2011-01-01

    Context: Accelerated globalization has produced obvious changes in diplomatic purposes and practices. Health issues have become increasingly preeminent in the evolving global diplomacy agenda. More leaders in academia and policy are thinking about how to structure and utilize diplomacy in pursuit of global health goals. Methods: In this article, we describe the context, practice, and components of global health diplomacy, as applied operationally. We examine the foundations of various approaches to global health diplomacy, along with their implications for the policies shaping the international public health and foreign policy environments. Based on these observations, we propose a taxonomy for the subdiscipline. Findings: Expanding demands on global health diplomacy require a delicate combination of technical expertise, legal knowledge, and diplomatic skills that have not been systematically cultivated among either foreign service or global health professionals. Nonetheless, high expectations that global health initiatives will achieve development and diplomatic goals beyond the immediate technical objectives may be thwarted by this gap. Conclusions: The deepening links between health and foreign policy require both the diplomatic and global health communities to reexamine the skills, comprehension, and resources necessary to achieve their mutual objectives. PMID:21933277

  6. Global Change Effects on Plant-Soil Interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dam, Marie

    Global change is expected to increasingly affect composition and functioning of soil communities. In terrestrial ecosystems, the plant-soil interactions will be of particular importance for the ecosystem response, including feed-back responses that may further increase climate change. The aim...

  7. Changing Requirements to HCI Funding: A Global Perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Evers, Vanessa; Brewster, S.; Lazar, J.; Liu, Zhengjie; Marsden, G.; Prates, R.; Nijboer, Femke

    The requirements for funding for HCI research are changing globally. In this SIG meeting, we will review with panel members and high-level grant decision makers from different continents and countries how the requirements are changing and discuss how this affects HCI research and its impact.

  8. Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierney, Benjamin P.

    2013-01-01

    The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theory perspective (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) by asking the question, "How do differences…

  9. Global change in forests: responses of species, communities, and biomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew J. Hansen; Ronald P. Neilson; Virginia H. Dale; Curtis H. Flather; Louis R. Iverson; David J. Currie; Sarah Shafer; Rosamonde Cook; Partick J. Bartlein

    2001-01-01

    This article serves as a primer on forest biodiversity as a key component of global change. We first synthesize current knowledge of interactions among climate, land use, and biodiversity. We then summarize the results of new analyses on the potential effects of human-induced climate change on forest biodiversity. Our models project how possible future climates may...

  10. A Tale of Two Minds: Psychology and Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, George S.

    2010-01-01

    The American Psychological Association recently released its Presidential Task Force report on Psychology and Global Climate Change. Its principles and proposals would inaugurate a long and productive program of psychological research on climate change. But is it too little, too late? Climatologists have been growing progressively gloomier over…

  11. Changing Higher Education Curricula for a Global and Multicultural World.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morey, Ann Intili

    2000-01-01

    Outlines a framework for changing curricula in higher education in order to prepare students to succeed in a culturally diverse, globally interdependent world. The framework components include focused and infused curriculum changes, increase expertise of a diverse and international faculty, linkages with other universities and organizations, and…

  12. Long term evolution of coastal morphology and global change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Capobianco, M.; De Vriend, H.J.; Nicholls, R.J.; Stive, M.J.F.

    1993-01-01

    Long-term prediction of sediment transport and of morphological behaviour in the coastal zone, in response to human interference or to change in environmental conditions (collectively global change) is an increasingly important issue in coastal zone management, especially in relation to the needs

  13. Global River Discharge and Water Temperature under Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van M.T.H.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Yearsley, J.R.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on freshwater ecosystems and human water use. Here we assess the impact of climate change on global river flows and river water temperatures, and identify regions that might become more critical for

  14. Trends in global wildfire potential in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Y. Liu; J.A. Stanturf; S.L. Goodrick

    2009-01-01

    The trend in global wildfire potential under the climate change due to the greenhouse effect is investigated. Fire potential is measured by the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), which is calculated using the observed maximum temperature and precipitation and projected changes at the end of this century (2070–2100) by general circulation models (GCMs) for present and...

  15. Salt Marshes as Potential Indicatore of Global Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Daehyun; Cairens, David; Jung, S.H.

    2011-01-01

    as indicators of global climate change, focusing upon three major aspects: sedimentary, vegetation, and biogeochemical dynamics. The previous literature concerned with these aspects commonly argues that the primary impact of climate change on salt marshes occurs via sea-level variations, because hydrologic......Coastal scientists postulate that salt marshes are significantly affected by dynamics of global climate. However, few studies have explicitly proposed a perspective that regards salt marshes as potential indicators of climate change. This review article evaluates the possibility of salt marshes...

  16. Recent change of the global monsoon precipitation (1979-2008)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, HI (United States); University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Liu, Jian [Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Nanjing (China); Kim, Hyung-Jin [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Research Institute for Global Change, Yokohama, Kanagawa (Japan); Webster, Peter J. [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA (United States); Yim, So-Young [University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States)

    2012-09-15

    The global monsoon (GM) is a defining feature of the annual variation of Earth's climate system. Quantifying and understanding the present-day monsoon precipitation change are crucial for prediction of its future and reflection of its past. Here we show that regional monsoons are coordinated not only by external solar forcing but also by internal feedback processes such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). From one monsoon year (May to the next April) to the next, most continental monsoon regions, separated by vast areas of arid trade winds and deserts, vary in a cohesive manner driven by ENSO. The ENSO has tighter regulation on the northern hemisphere summer monsoon (NHSM) than on the southern hemisphere summer monsoon (SHSM). More notably, the GM precipitation (GMP) has intensified over the past three decades mainly due to the significant upward trend in NHSM. The intensification of the GMP originates primarily from an enhanced east-west thermal contrast in the Pacific Ocean, which is coupled with a rising pressure in the subtropical eastern Pacific and decreasing pressure over the Indo-Pacific warm pool. While this mechanism tends to amplify both the NHSM and SHSM, the stronger (weaker) warming trend in the NH (SH) creates a hemispheric thermal contrast, which favors intensification of the NHSM but weakens the SHSM. The enhanced Pacific zonal thermal contrast is largely a result of natural variability, whilst the enhanced hemispherical thermal contrast is likely due to anthropogenic forcing. We found that the enhanced global summer monsoon not only amplifies the annual cycle of tropical climate but also promotes directly a ''wet-gets-wetter'' trend pattern and indirectly a ''dry-gets-drier'' trend pattern through coupling with deserts and trade winds. The mechanisms recognized in this study suggest a way forward for understanding past and future changes of the GM in terms of its driven mechanisms. (orig.)

  17. Delayed processing of global shape in developmental prosopagnosia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerlach, Christian; Klargaard, Solja K.; Starrfelt, Randi

    2017-01-01

    and fragmented objects. In contrast, their visual short-term memory capacity, visual processing speed, efficiency of top-down selectivity, and spatial allocation of attentional resources were within the normal range. This suggests that the reduced global bias effect found in the DP-sample reflects a perceptual...... rather than an attentional deficit. To examine whether the reduction in the global precedence effect was systematically related to the face recognition impairment of the DPs we examined the correlation between the magnitude of the global precedence effect and performance on the Cambridge Face Memory Test...

  18. Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xia; Gao, Qiong; Peng, Changhui; Cui, Xuefeng; Liu, Yinghui; Jiang, Li

    2014-03-01

    With rapid economic development and urbanization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model (GLOBFOOD) and regional spatial allocation model (CLUE). The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socioeconomic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

  19. National reforms and globalization process in Russia: problems and prospects in education system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Zyryanov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Like many others countries Russia try to change her own national education system in accordance with some global trends. The article analyses some reality and international assessments of this process and shows: those international investigations and education assessments are realized in Russia without necessary logic, so they became harmful for real educational process and national interests.

  20. Wintertime urban heat island modified by global climate change over Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hara, M.

    2015-12-01

    Urban thermal environment change, especially, surface air temperature (SAT) rise in metropolitan areas, is one of the major recent issues in urban areas. The urban thermal environmental change affects not only human health such as heat stroke, but also increasing infectious disease due to spreading out virus vectors habitat and increase of industry and house energy consumption. The SAT rise is mostly caused by global climate change and urban heat island (hereafter UHI) by urbanization. The population in Tokyo metropolitan area is over 30 millions and the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the biggest megacities in the world. The temperature rise due to urbanization seems comparable to the global climate change in the major megacities. It is important to project how the urbanization and the global climate change affect to the future change of urban thermal environment to plan the adaptation and mitigation policy. To predict future SAT change in urban scale, we should estimate future UHI modified by the global climate change. This study investigates change in UHI intensity (UHII) of major metropolitan areas in Japan by effects of the global climate change. We performed a series of climate simulations. Present climate simulations with and without urban process are conducted for ten seasons using a high-resolution numerical climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Future climate projections with and without urban process are also conducted. The future projections are performed using the pseudo global warming method, assuming 2050s' initial and boundary conditions estimated by a GCM under the RCP scenario. Simulation results indicated that UHII would be enhanced more than 30% in Tokyo during the night due to the global climate change. The enhancement of urban heat island is mostly caused by change of lower atmospheric stability.

  1. Applying Historic Science Communication Lessons to Today's Global Change Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocchio, L. E.

    2009-12-01

    As global population surges towards seven billion and anthropogenic impacts ricochet throughout Earth’s environment, effective science communication has become essential. In today’s digital world where science communication must contend with stiff competition for audience attention, it is crucial to understand the lessons gleaned from a century worth of science communication research. Starting in the early part of the twentieth century a cadre of American scientists began to advocate for better public understanding of science, arguing that better understanding of science meant a better quality of life, better public affairs deliberations, and the elevation of democracy and culture. To improve science communication, many models of the communication process have been developed since then. Starting in the 1940s, science communication researchers adopted the linear communication model of electrical engineering. Over time, the one-way scientific communication of the linear model came to be identified with the deficit model approach—which assumes little prior scientific knowledge on the part of the receiver. A major failure of the deficit model was witnessed during the Mad Cow Disease outbreak in the UK: beef safety was over-simplified in the communication process, people were given a false sense of security, many ended up sick, and public trust in government plummeted. Of the many lessons learned from failures of the deficit model, arguably, the most significant lesson is that the public’s prior knowledge and life experience is always brought to bear on the message, i.e. the message must be contextualized. Here, we examine the major science communication lessons of the past century and discuss how they can inform more effective global change communication.

  2. Climate change and the World Bank: opportunity for global governance?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehmer-Christiansen, S.A.

    1999-01-01

    The direct and indirect efforts of the World Bank and its off-spring, the Global Environment Facility (GEF), to become leading international agents of global environmental 'governance' and 'sustainable development' are described and analysed politically with reference to the development of an implementation regime of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). The Bank/GEF are seen as engaging in a potentially dangerous experiment of 'global ecological modernisation', or industrial transformation, in 'emerging economies', an experiment legitimised by reference to the catastrophic threat of man-made 'global warming'. This threat is already being translated into political, commercial and bureaucratic benefits accruing to a small global elite. How was this achieved and what are the likely political implications? (author)

  3. Drought and Carbon Cycling of Grassland Ecosystems under Global Change: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianjie Lei

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the increased intensity and duration of droughts have dramatically altered the structure and function of grassland ecosystems, which have been forced to adapt to this change in climate. Combinations of global change drivers such as elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, warming, nitrogen (N deposition, grazing, and land-use change have influenced the impact that droughts have on grassland C cycling. This influence, to some extent, can modify the relationship between droughts and grassland carbon (C cycling in the multi-factor world. Unfortunately, prior reviews have been primarily anecdotal from the 1930s to the 2010s. We investigated the current state of the study on the interactive impacts of multiple factors under drought scenarios in grassland C cycling and provided scientific advice for dealing with droughts and managing grassland C cycling in a multi-factor world. Currently, adequate information is not available on the interaction between droughts and global change drivers, which would advance our understanding of grassland C cycling responses. It was determined that future experiments and models should specifically test how droughts regulate grassland C cycling under global changes. Previous multi-factor experiments of current and future global change conditions have studied various drought scenarios poorly, including changes in precipitation frequency and amplitude, timing, and interactions with other global change drivers. Multi-factor experiments have contributed to quantifying these potential changes and have provided important information on how water affects ecosystem processes under global change. There is an urgent need to establish a systematic framework that can assess ecosystem dynamic responses to droughts under current and future global change and human activity, with a focus on the combined effects of droughts, global change drivers, and the corresponding hierarchical responses of an ecosystem.

  4. Dryland photoautotrophic soil surface communities endangered by global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Caballero, Emilio; Belnap, Jayne; Büdel, Burkhard; Crutzen, Paul J.; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Pöschl, Ulrich; Weber, Bettina

    2018-02-01

    Photoautotrophic surface communities forming biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are crucial for soil stability as well as water, nutrient and trace gas cycling at regional and global scales. Quantitative information on their global coverage and the environmental factors driving their distribution patterns, however, are not readily available. We use observations and environmental modelling to estimate the global distribution of biocrusts and their response to global change using future projected scenarios. We find that biocrusts currently covering approximately 12% of Earth's terrestrial surface will decrease by about 25-40% within 65 years due to anthropogenically caused climate change and land-use intensification, responding far more drastically than vascular plants. Our results illustrate that current biocrust occurrence is mainly driven by a combination of precipitation, temperature and land management, and future changes are expected to be affected by land-use and climate change in similar proportion. The predicted loss of biocrusts may substantially reduce the microbial contribution to nitrogen cycling and enhance the emissions of soil dust, which affects the functioning of ecosystems as well as human health and should be considered in the modelling, mitigation and management of global change.

  5. Diagnosing resistance to change in the change management process

    OpenAIRE

    Kuzhda, Tetiana

    2016-01-01

    This article explains the change management process and resistance to organizational change through examining causes of resistance to change, diagnosing them, and finding the ways to deal with resistance to change. In business environment, the one thing any company can be assured of is change. If an organization experiences change it may also need to implement new business strategies, which can create resistance among employees. Managers need to know in which phase they have to expect unusual...

  6. Pathways of understanding: The interactions of humanity and global environmental change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobson, H.K.; Katzenberger, J.; Lousma, J.; Mooney, H.A.; Moss, R.H.; Kuhn, W.; Luterbacher, U.; Wiegandt, E.

    1992-01-01

    How humans, interacting within social systems, affect and are affected by global change is explored. Recognizing the impact human activities have on the environment and responding to the need to document the interactions among human activities, the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) commissioned a group of 12 scientists to develop a framework illustrating the key human systems that contribute to global change. This framework, called the Social Process Diagram, will help natural and social scientists, educators, resource managers and policy makers envision and analyze how human systems interact among themselves and with the natural system. The Social Process Diagram consists of the following blocks that constitute the Diagram's structural framework: (1) fund of knowledge and experience; (2) preferences and expectations; (3) factors of production and technology; (4) population and social structure; (5) economic systems; (6) political systems and institutions; and (7) global scale environmental processes. To demonstrate potential ways the Diagram can be used, this document includes 3 hypothetical scenarios of global change issues: global warming and sea level rise; the environmental impact of human population migration; and energy and the environment. These scenarios demonstrate the Diagram's usefulness for visualizing specific processes that might be studied to evaluate a particular global change issues. The scenario also shows that interesting and unanticipated questions may emerge as links are explored between categories on the Diagram

  7. Collaborative Process Change by Inscription

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zander, Pär-Ola

    change is focused. The purpose is reached by theoretical research on current relevant theories of inscription, combined with action research as a second strand of research. The theoretical research investigates the concept of representation in classical cognitivism, various strains of dialectical...... is heterogeneity and its power to resist groupware which assumes more homogeneous user bases. The fourth mechanism is how the common conceptual basis, or the lack thereof, can cause non-appropriation. With these intellectual tools at hand, it is possible to discuss the possible futures of technologies...

  8. Global change in the trophic functioning of marine food webs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aurore Maureaud

    Full Text Available The development of fisheries in the oceans, and other human drivers such as climate warming, have led to changes in species abundance, assemblages, trophic interactions, and ultimately in the functioning of marine food webs. Here, using a trophodynamic approach and global databases of catches and life history traits of marine species, we tested the hypothesis that anthropogenic ecological impacts may have led to changes in the global parameters defining the transfers of biomass within the food web. First, we developed two indicators to assess such changes: the Time Cumulated Indicator (TCI measuring the residence time of biomass within the food web, and the Efficiency Cumulated Indicator (ECI quantifying the fraction of secondary production reaching the top of the trophic chain. Then, we assessed, at the large marine ecosystem scale, the worldwide change of these two indicators over the 1950-2010 time-periods. Global trends were identified and cluster analyses were used to characterize the variability of trends between ecosystems. Results showed that the most common pattern over the study period is a global decrease in TCI, while the ECI indicator tends to increase. Thus, changes in species assemblages would induce faster and apparently more efficient biomass transfers in marine food webs. Results also suggested that the main driver of change over that period had been the large increase in fishing pressure. The largest changes occurred in ecosystems where 'fishing down the marine food web' are most intensive.

  9. Shifting global invasive potential of European plants with climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Peterson, A.T.; Stewart, Aimee; Mohamed, Kamal I.; Araújo, Miguel B.

    2008-01-01

    Global climate change and invasions by nonnative species rank among the top concerns for agents of biological loss in coming decades. Although each of these themes has seen considerable attention in the modeling and forecasting communities, their joint effects remain little explored and poorly understood. We developed ecological niche models for 1804 species from the European flora, which we projected globally to identify areas of potential distribution, both at present and across 4 scenarios...

  10. Hot house global climate change and the human condition

    CERN Document Server

    Strom, Robert G

    2007-01-01

    Global warming is addressed by almost all sciences including many aspects of geosciences, atmospheric, the biological sciences, and even astronomy. It has recently become the concern of other diverse disciplines such as economics, agriculture, demographics and population statistics, medicine, engineering, and political science. This book addresses these complex interactions, integrates them, and derives meaningful conclusions and possible solutions. The text provides an easy-to-read explanation of past and present global climate change, causes and possible solutions to the problem, including t

  11. Strengthening dryland women's land rights: local contexts, global change

    OpenAIRE

    Forsythe, Lora; Morton, John; Nelson, Valerie; Quan, Julian; Martin, Adrienne; Hartog, Maaike

    2015-01-01

    Thematic study 1: Strengthening dryland women's land rights: local contexts, global change found that significant opportunities exist for facilitating dryland women's empowerment with respect to land, in international research, policy, dialogue and practical action. There is increased international attention on women’s land rights amongst global institutions and in international development debates. There is growing pressure for progressive legislation on women’s land rights, with increasing ...

  12. Malaria and global change: Insights, uncertainties and possible surprises

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin, P.H.; Steel, A.

    1996-12-31

    Malaria may change with global change. Indeed, global change may affect malaria risk and malaria epidemiology. Malaria risk may change in response to a greenhouse warming; malaria epidemiology, in response to the social, economic, and political developments which a greenhouse warming may trigger. To date, malaria receptivity and epidemiology futures have been explored within the context of equilibrium studies. Equilibrium studies of climate change postulate an equilibrium present climate (the starting point) and a doubled-carbon dioxide climate (the end point), simulate conditions in both instances, and compare the two. What happens while climate changes, i.e., between the starting point and the end point, is ignored. The present paper focuses on malaria receptivity and addresses what equilibrium studies miss, namely transient malaria dynamics.

  13. Global climate change: an unequivocal reality; Cambio climatico global: una realidad inequivoca

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raynal-Villasenor, J.A. [Universidad de las Americas, Puebla, Puebla (Mexico)]. E-mail: josea.raynal@udlap.mx

    2011-10-15

    During several years, a long discussion has taken place over the reality of global climate change phenomenon and, if there is one, what could be its cause. Once the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC, 2007) - IPCC is part the United Nations Organization (UN) - was published, it was stated that there is a developing global climatic change and that the cause is unequivocally related with the human activity in the planet Earth. In this paper, relevant information is given about the development of global climatic change issues and some actions are mentioned that each human being of this planet can implement to mitigate it, since it has been accepted that it's impossible to stop it. [Spanish] Durante varios anos se ha discutido si existe un cambio climatico global y, si lo hay, cual es su causa. Una vez publicado el 4o. Reporte de Valoracion del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climatico (IPCC, 2007) - el IPCC es parte de la Organizacion de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) - se preciso que hay un cambio climatico global en desarrollo y la causa inequivoca que lo esta produciendo es la actividad humana en el planeta Tierra, tambien se hablo en el IPCC de las causas naturales por las cuales el planeta se esta calentando. En el presente articulo, se da informacion relevante al cambio climatico global en desarrollo y se mencionan algunas acciones que cada ser humano de este planeta puede implementar para mitigarlo, ya que es imposible detenerlo.

  14. Global change and biodiversity loss: Some impediments to response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borza, Karen; Jamieson, Dale

    1991-01-01

    Discussed here are the effects of anthropogenic global climate change on biodiversity. The focus is on human responses to the problem. Greenhouse warming-induced climate change may shift agricultural growing belts, reduce forests of the Northern Hemisphere and drive many species to extinction, among other effects. If these changes occur together with the mass extinctions already occurring, we may suffer a profound loss of biological diversity.

  15. Climate change damage functions in LCA – (1) from global warming potential to natural environment damages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Callesen, Ingeborg; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Bagger Jørgensen, Rikke

    Energy use often is the most significant contributor to the impact category ‘global warming’ in life cycle impact assessment. However, the potential global warming effects on the climate at regional level and consequential effects on the natural environment are not thoroughly described within LCA...... methodology. The current scientific understanding of the extent of climate change impacts is limited due to the immense complexity of the multi-factorial environmental changes and unknown adaptive capacities at process, species and ecosystem level. In the presentation we argue that the global warming impacts...

  16. Remote sensing for global change, climate change and atmosphere and ocean forecasting. Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    This volume is separated in three sessions. First part is on remote sensing for global change (with global modelling, land cover change on global scale, ocean colour studies of marine biosphere, biological and hydrological interactions and large scale experiments). Second part is on remote sensing for climate change (with earth radiation and clouds, sea ice, global climate research programme). Third part is on remote sensing for atmosphere and ocean forecasting (with temperatures and humidity, winds, data assimilation, cloud imagery, sea surface temperature, ocean waves and topography). (A.B.). refs., figs., tabs

  17. Using Argumentation to Foster Learning about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, B. W.

    2012-12-01

    Given the complexity of the science involving climate change (IPCC, 2007), its lack of curricular focus within US K-12 schooling (Golden, 2009), and the difficulty in effecting conceptual change in science (Vosniadou, 2007), we sought to research middle school students' conceptions about climate change, in addition to how those conceptions changed during and as a result of a deliberately designed global climate change (GCC) unit. In a sixth grade classroom, a unit was designed which incorporated Argumentation-Driven Inquiry (Sampson & Grooms, 2010). That is, students were assigned to groups and asked to make sense of standard GCC data such as paleoclimate data from ice cores, direct temperature measurement, and Keeling curves, in addition to learning about the greenhouse effect in a modeling lesson (Hocking, et al, 1993). The students were then challenged, in groups, to create, on whiteboards, explanations and defend these explanations to and with their peers. They did two iterations of this argumentation. The first iteration focused on the simple identification of climate change patterns. The second focused on developing causal explanations for those patterns. After two rounds of such argumentation, the students were then asked to write (individually) a "final" argument which accounted for the given data. Interview and written data were analyzed prior to the given unit, during it, and after it, in order to capture complicated nuance that might escape detection by simpler research means such as surveys. Several findings emerged which promised to be of interest to climate change educators. The first is that many students tended to "know" many "facts" about climate change, but were unable to connect these disparate facts in any meaningful ways. A second finding is that while no students changed their entire belief systems, even after a robust unit which would seemingly challenge such, each student engaged did indeed modify the manner in which they discussed the

  18. International conference on the role of the polar regions in global change: Proceedings. Volume 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weller, G.; Wilson, C.L.; Severin, B.A.B. [eds.

    1991-12-01

    The International Conference on the Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change took place on the campus of the University of Alaska Fairbanks on June 11--15, 1990. The goal of the conference was to define and summarize the state of knowledge on the role of the polar regions in global change, and to identify gaps in knowledge. To this purpose experts in a wide variety of relevant disciplines were invited to present papers and hold panel discussions. While there are numerous conferences on global change, this conference dealt specifically with polar regions which occupy key positions in the global system. These two volumes of conference proceedings include papers on (1) detection and monitoring of change; (2) climate variability and climate forcing; (3) ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere interactions and processes; (4) effects on biota and biological feedbacks; (5) ice sheet, glacier and permafrost responses and feedbacks; (6) paleoenvironmental studies; and, (7) aerosols and trace gases.

  19. International conference on the role of the polar regions in global change: Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weller, G.; Wilson, C.L.; Severin, B.A.B.

    1991-12-01

    The International Conference on the Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change took place on the campus of the University of Alaska Fairbanks on June 11--15, 1990. The goal of the conference was to define and summarize the state of knowledge on the role of the polar regions in global change, and to identify gaps in knowledge. To this purpose experts in a wide variety of relevant disciplines were invited to present papers and hold panel discussions. While there are numerous conferences on global change, this conference dealt specifically with the polar regions which occupy key positions in the global system. These two volumes of conference proceedings include papers on (1) detection and monitoring of change; (2) climate variability and climate forcing; (3) ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere interactions and processes; and (4) effects on biota and biological feedbacks; (5) ice sheet, glacier and permafrost responses and feedbacks, (6) paleoenvironmental studies; and, (7) aerosol and trace gases

  20. International conference on the role of the polar regions in global change: Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weller, G.; Wilson, C.L.; Severin, B.A.B.

    1991-12-01

    The International Conference on the Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change took place on the campus of the University of Alaska Fairbanks on June 11--15, 1990. The goal of the conference was to define and summarize the state of knowledge on the role of the polar regions in global change, and to identify gaps in knowledge. To this purpose experts in a wide variety of relevant disciplines were invited to present papers and hold panel discussions. While there are numerous conferences on global change, this conference dealt specifically with polar regions which occupy key positions in the global system. These two volumes of conference proceedings include papers on (1) detection and monitoring of change; (2) climate variability and climate forcing; (3) ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere interactions and processes; (4) effects on biota and biological feedbacks; (5) ice sheet, glacier and permafrost responses and feedbacks; (6) paleoenvironmental studies; and, (7) aerosols and trace gases

  1. International conference on the role of the polar regions in global change: Proceedings. Volume 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weller, G.; Wilson, C.L.; Severin, B.A.B. [eds.

    1991-12-01

    The International Conference on the Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change took place on the campus of the University of Alaska Fairbanks on June 11--15, 1990. The goal of the conference was to define and summarize the state of knowledge on the role of the polar regions in global change, and to identify gaps in knowledge. To this purpose experts in a wide variety of relevant disciplines were invited to present papers and hold panel discussions. While there are numerous conferences on global change, this conference dealt specifically with the polar regions which occupy key positions in the global system. These two volumes of conference proceedings include papers on (1) detection and monitoring of change; (2) climate variability and climate forcing; (3) ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere interactions and processes; and (4) effects on biota and biological feedbacks; (5) ice sheet, glacier and permafrost responses and feedbacks, (6) paleoenvironmental studies; and, (7) aerosol and trace gases.

  2. Conceptualizing psychological processes in response to globalization: Components, antecedents, and consequences of global orientations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Sylvia Xiaohua; Lam, Ben C P; Hui, Bryant P H; Ng, Jacky C K; Mak, Winnie W S; Guan, Yanjun; Buchtel, Emma E; Tang, Willie C S; Lau, Victor C Y

    2016-02-01

    The influences of globalization have permeated various aspects of life in contemporary society, from technical innovations, economic development, and lifestyles, to communication patterns. The present research proposed a construct termed global orientation to denote individual differences in the psychological processes of acculturating to the globalizing world. It encompasses multicultural acquisition as a proactive response and ethnic protection as a defensive response to globalization. Ten studies examined the applicability of global orientations among majority and minority groups, including immigrants and sojourners, in multicultural and relatively monocultural contexts, and across Eastern and Western cultures. Multicultural acquisition is positively correlated with both independent and interdependent self-construals, bilingual proficiency and usage, and dual cultural identifications. Multicultural acquisition is promotion-focused, while ethnic protection is prevention-focused and related to acculturative stress. Global orientations affect individuating and modest behavior over and above multicultural ideology, predict overlap with outgroups over and above political orientation, and predict psychological adaptation, sociocultural competence, tolerance, and attitudes toward ethnocultural groups over and above acculturation expectations/strategies. Global orientations also predict English and Chinese oral presentation performance in multilevel analyses and the frequency and pleasantness of intercultural contact in cross-lagged panel models. We discuss how the psychological study of global orientations contributes to theory and research on acculturation, cultural identity, and intergroup relations. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Agile Data Management with the Global Change Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duggan, B.; Aulenbach, S.; Tilmes, C.; Goldstein, J.

    2013-12-01

    We describe experiences applying agile software development techniques to the realm of data management during the development of the Global Change Information System (GCIS), a web service and API for authoritative global change information under development by the US Global Change Research Program. Some of the challenges during system design and implementation have been : (1) balancing the need for a rigorous mechanism for ensuring information quality with the realities of large data sets whose contents are often in flux, (2) utilizing existing data to inform decisions about the scope and nature of new data, and (3) continuously incorporating new knowledge and concepts into a relational data model. The workflow for managing the content of the system has much in common with the development of the system itself. We examine various aspects of agile software development and discuss whether or how we have been able to use them for data curation as well as software development.

  4. Global warming /climate change: Involving students using local example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isiorho, S. A.

    2016-12-01

    The current political climate has made it apparent that the general public does not believe in global warming. Also, there appears to be some confusion between global warming and climate change; global warming is one aspect of climate change. Most scientists believe there is climate change and global warming, although, there is still doubt among students on global warming. Some upper level undergraduate students are required to conduct water level/temperature measurements as part of their course grade. In addition to students having their individual projects, the various classes also utilize a well field within a wetland on campus to conduct group projects. Twelve wells in the well field on campus are used regularly by students to measure the depth of groundwater, the temperature of the waters and other basic water chemistry parameters like pH, conductivity and total dissolved solid (TDS) as part of the class group project. The data collected by each class is added to data from previous classes. Students work together as a group to interpret the data. More than 100 students have participated in this venture for more than 10 years of the four upper level courses: hydrogeology, environmental and urban geology, environmental conservation and wetlands. The temperature trend shows the seasonal variation as one would expect, but it also shows an upward trend (warming). These data demonstrate a change in climate and warming. Thus, the students participated in data collection, learn to write report and present their result to their peers in the classrooms.

  5. Mission to Planet Earth: A program to understand global environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-01-01

    A description of Mission to Planet Earth, a program to understand global environmental change, is presented. Topics discussed include: changes in the environment; global warming; ozone depletion; deforestation; and NASA's role in global change research.

  6. Global Deliberative Democracy and Climate Change: Insights from World Wide Views on Global Warming in Australia

    OpenAIRE

    Riedy, Chris; Herriman, Jade

    2011-01-01

    On 26 September 2009, approximately 4,000 citizens in 38 countries participated in World Wide Views on Global Warming (WWViews). WWViews was an ambitious first attempt to convene a deliberative mini-public at a global scale, giving people from around the world an opportunity to deliberate on international climate policy and to make recommendations to the decision-makers meeting at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (COP-15) in December 2009. In this paper, we examine t...

  7. Decision Making Processes for Global Product Development - a Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søndergaard, Erik Stefan; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema

    2015-01-01

    Global Product Development (GPD), outsourcing and offshoring of product development is a widespread phenomenon on today’s global economy, and consequently most engineering manufacturing companies will have to make decisions regarding how to organise their product development activities globally....... This paper investigates decision making in the GPD context, partly by summarizing existing literatures and studies in the field, and partly through a case study of decision making processes in a global engineering company. Through interviews a range of GPD decisions were mapped and analysed in order...... to investigate how decisions are made and which information decisions are based on. The study found that decision making is not always structured, and that prioritised decision making is more dominant than planned decision making. The findings set the stage for further analysis of decision making in GPD...

  8. Global imprint of climate change on marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Sydeman, William J.

    2013-01-01

    Past meta-analyses of the response of marine organisms to climate change have examined a limited range of locations1,2, taxonomic groups2–4 and/or biological responses5,6. This has precluded a robust overview of the effect of climate change in the global ocean. Here, we synthesized all available...... studies of the consistency of marine ecological observations with expectations under climate change. This yielded a metadatabase of 1,735 marine biological responses for which either regional or global climate change was considered as a driver. Included were instances of marine taxa responding as expected......, in a manner inconsistent with expectations, and taxa demonstrating no response. From this database, 81–83% of all observations for distribution, phenology, community composition, abundance, demography and calcification across taxa and ocean basins were consistent with the expected impacts of climate change...

  9. Global inter-annual gravity changes from GRACE: Early results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Hinderer, J.

    2005-01-01

    Fifteen monthly gravity field solutions from the GRACE twin satellites launched more than two years ago have been studied to estimate gravity field changes between 2002 and 2003. The results demonstrate that GRACE is capable of capturing the changes in ground water on inter-annual scales...... with an accuracy of 0.4 muGal corresponding to 9 mm water thickness on spatial scales longer than 1300 km. Four of the most widely used global hydrological models have been investigated for their spatial comparison with GRACE observations of inter-annual gravity field variations due to changes in continental water...... storage. The Global Land Data Assimilation System model has a spatial correlation coefficient with GRACE observations of 0.65 over the northern hemisphere. This demonstrates that the observed gravity field changes on these scales are largely related to changes in continental water storage....

  10. Evolutionary responses to global change: lessons from invasive species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Emily V; Alexander, Jake M

    2014-05-01

    Biologists have recently devoted increasing attention to the role of rapid evolution in species' responses to environmental change. However, it is still unclear what evolutionary responses should be expected, at what rates, and whether evolution will save populations at risk of extinction. The potential of biological invasions to provide useful insights has barely been realised, despite the close analogies to species responding to global change, particularly climate change; in both cases, populations encounter novel climatic and biotic selection pressures, with expected evolutionary responses occurring over similar timescales. However, the analogy is not perfect, and invasive species are perhaps best used as an upper bound on expected change. In this article, we review what invasive species can and cannot teach us about likely evolutionary responses to global change and the constraints on those responses. We also discuss the limitations of invasive species as a model and outline directions for future research. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  11. Evolutionary change - patterns and processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco M. Salzano

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available The present review considered: (a the factors that conditioned the early transition from non-life to life; (b genome structure and complexity in prokaryotes, eukaryotes, and organelles; (c comparative human chromosome genomics; and (d the Brazilian contribution to some of these studies. Understanding the dialectical conflict between freedom and organization is fundamental to give meaning to the patterns and processes of organic evolution.A presente revisão considerou: (a os fatores que condicionaram a transição inicial entre não-vida e vida; (b a estrutura e complexidade genômica em procariotos, eucariotos e organelas; (c a genômica comparada dos cromossomos humanos; (d a contribuição brasileira a alguns desses estudos. A compreensão do conflito dialético entre liberdade e organização é fundamental para dar significado aos padrões e processos da evolução orgânica.

  12. Influence of multiple global change drivers on terrestrial carbon storage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yue, Kai; Fornara, Dario A; Yang, Wanqin

    2017-01-01

    The interactive effects of multiple global change drivers on terrestrial carbon (C) storage remain poorly understood. Here, we synthesise data from 633 published studies to show how the interactive effects of multiple drivers are generally additive (i.e. not differing from the sum...... of their individual effects) rather than synergistic or antagonistic. We further show that (1) elevated CO2 , warming, N addition, P addition and increased rainfall, all exerted positive individual effects on plant C pools at both single-plant and plant-community levels; (2) plant C pool responses to individual...... additive effects of multiple global change drivers into future assessments of the C storage ability of terrestrial ecosystems....

  13. A Dual Processing Approach to Stereotype Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Lucy; Coolen, Petra

    1995-01-01

    Considered stereotype change within a framework of dual process models. Using three experiments, manipulated task involvement, source credibility, and message quality. Findings proved dual process as appropriate when considering the processing of stereotype-disconfirming information and processing's impact on existing stereotypes. Different…

  14. Optimisation explains global leaf trait patterns and plant adaptations to global change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewar, R. C.; McMurtrie, R. E.

    2009-12-01

    Measured values of four key leaf traits (leaf area per unit mass, nitrogen concentration, photosynthetic rate and leaf lifespan) co-vary globally according to relationships that hold across all the world’s terrestrial plants. The same leaf traits respond consistently to altered environmental conditions (e.g. light intensity, carbon dioxide concentration and nitrogen supply). Explaining observed global leaf trait patterns and leaf responses to environmental change is a prerequisite to understanding and predicting vegetation responses to global change more generally across a range of time scales. Recently [1] we have shown, using a simple model of plant carbon-nitrogen economy, that all of these leaf trait patterns and responses are consistent with an optimisation hypothesis that cumulative carbon export from leaves over their lifespan is maximised. Various closely-related optimisation hypotheses also explain other plant adaptations to environmental change, such as stomatal responses and altered patterns of growth allocation [2]. Incorporating plant optimisation into large scale vegetation-atmosphere models would ensure they are consistent with global leaf trait relationships, and would improve predictions of vegetation responses to global change. The challenge, both scientific and operational, is to do this consistently over a wide range of time scales. This talk will review our recent work using plant optimisation models [1,2] and highlight the potential of Maximum Entropy Production as a unifying optimisation principle for plant and ecosystem function across different time scales [3]. [1] McMurtrie RE, Dewar RC. 2009. Global variation of leaf traits explained from an hypothesis of optimal plant function. Manuscript in preparation. [2] Dewar RC, Franklin O, Makela A, McMurtrie RE, Valentine HT. 2009. Optimal function explains forest responses to global change. BioScience 59:127-139. [3] Dewar RC. 2009. Maximum entropy production and plants. Submitted to Phil

  15. Changing patterns in global lead supply and demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, H.

    The past decade has seen some very significant changes in the supply and the demand for lead. One of the most obvious developments is the emergence of China—both as the world's largest producer of primary lead and as a very significant consumer. Perhaps less obvious have been the increasing role of secondary lead in meeting demand for refined metal and the rapid growth in demand for industrial batteries, which have helped to sustain an annual average growth rate in Western World consumption of 3.4% between 1993 and 2000. Patchy knowledge about the lead industry in China has made it difficult to anticipate developments there and has created uncertainty in the global market. This uncertainty, and lead's poor environmental image, largely undeserved as it may be today, has meant few companies outside the lead business want to be seen participating in it. This is just one factor accounting for the very limited increase in lead mine production for the foreseeable future. With around 75% of lead now being used in batteries and a very high global scrap recycling rate, it is probable that most, if not all, growth in lead demand can be met without an overall increase in mine production. The challenge for the lead industry will be to ensure that sufficient recycling capacity is in place in the right parts of the world to process an increasing quantity of battery and other lead-bearing scrap. Huge investment in the world's telecommunications infrastructure and IT networks in the second half of the 1990s created a major market for industrial lead-acid batteries. With the collapse of the market for telecommunications equipment in 2001, lead consumption has fallen sharply and has revealed the extent to which demand growth in recent years has been dependent on this sector.

  16. Global Stream Temperatures and Flows under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, M. T.; Yearsley, J. R.; Franssen, W. H.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Kabat, P.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change will affect thermal and hydrologic regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on human water use and freshwater ecosystems. Here we assess the impact of climate change on stream temperature and streamflow globally. We used a physically-based stream temperature river basin model (RBM) linked to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The modelling framework was adapted for global application including impacts of reservoirs and thermal heat discharges, and was validated using observed water temperature and river discharge records in large river basins globally. VIC-RBM was forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected Global Climate Model (GCM) output resulting in global projections of daily streamflow and water temperature for the 21st century. Global mean and high (95th percentile) stream temperatures are projected to increase on average by 0.8-1.6 (1.0-2.2)°C for the SRES B1-A2 scenario for 2071-2100 relative to 1971-2000. The largest water temperature increases are projected for Europe, North America, Southeast Asia, South Africa and parts of Australia. In these regions, the sensitivities for warming are exacerbated by projected decreases in summer low flows. Large increases in water temperature combined with decreases in low flows are found for the southeastern U.S., Europe and eastern China. These regions could potentially be affected by increased deterioration of water quality and freshwater habitats, and reduced water available for beneficial uses such as thermoelectric power production.

  17. Provenance Representation in the Global Change Information System (GCIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, Curt

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change is a topic that has become very controversial despite strong support within the scientific community. It is common for agencies releasing information about climate change to be served with Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests for everything that led to that conclusion. Capturing and presenting the provenance, linking to the research papers, data sets, models, analyses, observation instruments and satellites, etc. supporting key findings has the potential to mitigate skepticism in this domain. The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is now coordinating the production of a National Climate Assessment (NCA) that presents our best understanding of global change. We are now developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will present the content of that report and its provenance, including the scientific support for the findings of the assessment. We are using an approach that will present this information both through a human accessible web site as well as a machine readable interface for automated mining of the provenance graph. We plan to use the developing W3C PROV Data Model and Ontology for this system.

  18. The global nursing faculty shortage: status and solutions for change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nardi, Deena A; Gyurko, Charlene C

    2013-09-01

    In addition to a global shortage of nurses, there is also a shortage of academically qualified faculty available to teach in schools of nursing. A systematic review examined proposed solutions to the global shortage of nursing faculty. Metasynthesis was used to compare and critically appraise strategies offered for solving or ameliorating the global nursing faculty shortage by premier nursing organizations. 181 recommendations in 62 publications were categorized into eight major themed solutions, including centralizing data management, international collaboration in nursing research, and increased funding for full-time faculty positions in nursing programs. The nursing faculty shortage is due to a confluence of factors, including the global migration of nurses, a seeming persistent devaluation of faculty by academic programs, disincentives, and an overall reduction in full-time equivalent faculty positions. Results point to a needed change in direction and approach to solving the nursing faculty shortage. By designing new education models that fit global healthcare needs and pooling teaching resources, designing and using the same databases across organizations to track and project faculty needs, and collaborating between schools and businesses to create mutually beneficial agreements for services, nursing faculty capacity can be enhanced, and nursing's capacity to meet global healthcare needs can be expanded. The results of this systematic review can be used as a rubric for the design and development of strategies to end the nursing faculty shortage and expand global nursing capacity. © 2013 Sigma Theta Tau International.

  19. Thermodynamic contributions of deforestation to global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bell, A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines a portion of the thermodynamics of global warming. The calculations use the endothermic photosynthesis reaction and yearly measures of CO 2 uptake to determine the amount of energy that is absorbed by forest cover each year. The energy absorption value of forest coverage determines the yearly cost of deforestation. The calculations reveal that 3.92 * 10 15 kJ less solar energy is absorbed by global forest coverage because of deforestation each year. The energy is enough to warm the atmosphere by 0.00008 °C / year. By comparison the same amount of energy represents 0.001 % of the atmospheric energy gains between 1995 and 2003. The results of this paper raise questions about the nature of global warming and the possibility that thermodynamic contributions to global climate change are significant. (author)

  20. Global Terrestrial Patterns of Precipitation Change under a Warming Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, R.

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial global warming has occurred over the last century, especially since the 1950s. This study analyzes changes in global terrestrial precipitation patterns in period of 1950-2010 in an attempt to identify the influence of climate change on precipitation. The results indicate that there is no significant change globally or across latitude bands; nevertheless significant regional differences in precipitation changes are identified. The lack of a change in precipitation levels, or precipitation balance, at both the global and latitudinal band scales is a result of offsetting by opposing precipitation changes at the regional scales. Clear opposing precipitation change patterns appeared in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude band (NHM). Significant increases in precipitation were distributed throughout the western extent of NHM, including the North America, Europe and west of Central Asia, while decreases were observed over the eastern extent, namely, East Asia. A dynamical adjustment methodology was applied to precipitation data, which could identify the roles of atmospheric circulation (dynamic) and the residual (thermodynamic) forcing played in generating the opposing regional precipitation changes in the NHM. Distinct different changes of dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation were found in different regions. Increased precipitation in North America and southern Europe were caused by thermodynamic precipitation, while the dynamic precipitation presented decreased trend due to the positive sea level pressure trend. However, in northern Europe and west of Central Asia, dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation both contributed to the increased precipitation, but thermodynamic precipitation had larger amplitude. In East Asia, the decreased precipitation was a result of simultaneous decrease in dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation.

  1. Global climate change is confounding species conservation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koopowitz, Harold; Hawkins, Bradford A

    2012-06-01

    Most organisms face similar problems with respect to their conservation in the face of global climate change. Here, we examine probable effects of climate change on the hyperdiverse plant family Orchidaceae. In the 20th century, the major concerns for orchid conservation revolved around unsustainable harvest for the orchid trade and, more importantly, land conversion from natural ecosystems to those unable to support wild orchid populations. Land conversion included logging, fire regimes and forest conversions to agricultural systems. Although those forms of degradation continue, an additional suite of threats has emerged, fueled by global climate change. Global climate change involves more than responses of orchid populations to increases in ambient temperature. Increasing temperature induces secondary effects that can be more significant than simple changes in temperature. Among these new threats are extended and prolonged fire seasons, rising sea levels, increases in cyclonic storms, seasonal climate shifts, changes in orthographic wind dew point and increased drought. The long-term outlook for orchid biodiversity in the wild is dismal, as it is for many animal groups, and we need to start rethinking strategies for conservation in a rapidly changing world. © 2012 ISZS, Blackwell Publishing and IOZ/CAS.

  2. The impact of colonial legacies and globalization processes on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, I postulate that forced migration in modern Africa is largely explained by factors deeply rooted in colonial legacies and the globalization process. For example, among the colonial historical factors someone may identify land alienation that still fuels conflicts in Zimbabwe, the colonial military doctrine based on ...

  3. The gate-keepers in a changing world: integrating microbial diversity and dynamics with global change biology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gutknecht, Jessica L.M. [Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Leipzig (Germany); Docherty, Kathryn M. [Univ. of Oregon, Eugene, OR (United States)

    2011-11-01

    Microorganisms (Bacteria, Archaea and Fungi) are the gate-keepers of many ecosystem-scale biogeochemical cycles. Although there have been measurable changes in ecosystem function due to human activities such as greenhouse gas production, nutrient loading, land-use change, and water consumption, few studies have connected microbial community dynamics with these changes in ecosystem function. Specifically, very little is known about how global changes will induce important functional changes in microbial biodiversity. Even less is known about how microbial functional changes could alter rates of nutrient cycling or whether microbial communities have enough functional redundancy that changes will have little impact on overall process rates. The proposed symposium will provide an overview of this emerging research area, with emphasis on linking the microorganisms directly to important ecological functions under the influence of global change dynamics. The session will include both broad overviews as well as specific case-studies by researchers who examine microbial communities from a variety of taxonomic levels and from various environments. The session will begin broadly, with speakers discussing how microbial communities may inform ecosystem-scale global change studies, and help to make microbial ecological knowledge more tangible for a broad range of ecologists. The session will continue with case studies of microbial community information informing process in global change experiments. Finally, the session will close with speakers discussing how microbial community information might fit into global change models, and what types of information are useful for future studies. We have requested that speakers particularly incorporate their views on what types of microbial data is useful and informative in the context of larger ecosystem processes. We foresee that this session could serve as a focal point for global change microbial ecologists to meet and discuss their

  4. Teaching Climate Change Using System Models: An Understanding Global Change Project Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, J. R.; Stuhlsatz, M.; Bracey, Z. B.; Marshall, C. R.

    2017-12-01

    Teaching and learning about historical and anthropogenic climate change in the classroom requires integrating instructional resources that address physical, chemical, and biological processes. The Understanding Global Change (UGC) framework and system models developed at the University of California Museum of Paleontology (UCMP) provide visualizations of the relationships and feedbacks between Earth system processes, and the consequences of anthropogenic activities on global climate. This schema provides a mechanism for developing pedagogic narratives that are known to support comprehension and retention of information and relationships. We designed a nine-day instructional unit for middle and high school students that includes a sequence of hands-on, inquiry-based, data rich activities combined with conceptual modeling exercises intended to foster students' development of systems thinking and their understanding of human influences on Earth system processes. The pilot unit, Sea Level Rise in the San Francisco Bay Area, addresses the human causes and consequences of sea level rise and related Earth system processes (i.e., the water cycle and greenhouse effect). Most of the content is not Bay Area specific, and could be used to explore sea level rise in any coastal region. Students completed pre and post assessments, which included questions about the connectedness of components of the Earth system and probed their attitudes towards participating in environmental stewardship activities. Students sequentially drew models representing the content explored in the activities and wrote short descriptions of their system diagrams that were collected by teachers for analysis. We also randomly assigned classes to engage in a very short additional intervention that asked students to think about the role that humans play in the Earth system and to draw themselves into the models. The study will determine if these students have higher stewardship scores and more frequently

  5. Global Change Encyclopedia - A project for the international space year

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cihlar, J.; Simard, R.; Manore, M.; Baker, R.; Clark, D.; Kineman, J.; Allen, J.; Ruzek, M.

    1991-01-01

    'Global Change Encyclopedia' is a project for the International Space Year in 1992. The project will produce a comprehensive set of satellite and other global data with relevance to studies of global change and of the earth as a system. These data will be packaged on CD-ROMs, accompanied by appropriate software for access, display and manipulation. On behalf of the Canadian Space Agency, the project is being carried out by the Canada Centre for Remote Sensing, with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration as major contributors. This paper highlights the background leading to the project, the concept and principal characteristics of the Encyclopedia itself, and the current status and plans.

  6. A Look at Global Climate Change Through Papal Encyclicals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutry-Korycka, Małgorzata

    2017-12-01

    The aim of this article is a comprehensive review of Papal Encyclicals in the context of global environmental and climatic change, against the backdrop of the activity of multinational institutions. The Encyclicals look to the future in teaching the faithful, in a manner which indicates that they are part of a goal-oriented policy, both in terms of scientific research, and concrete economic, social, and geopolitical activity. Attention has also been paid to the relationship between the activity of humankind, and global environmental change, particularly of the biotic and climatic variety. If this aggressive anthropogenic activity cannot be deemed responsible for initiating global warming, it may certainly be seen to have "encouraged" it. The impulses behind sustainable development, as well as the instruments of its implementation, and the inspiration behind the idea, have also been discussed. The achievement of this goal, necessitating the balancing of anthropological aspirations and the long-term security of the environment are also referenced in the Encyclicals.

  7. Global change in the trophic functioning of marine food webs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maureaud, Aurore; Gascuel, Didier; Colléter, Mathieu

    2017-01-01

    and life history traits of marine species, we tested the hypothesis that anthropogenic ecological impacts may have led to changes in the global parameters defining the transfers of biomass within the food web. First, we developed two indicators to assess such changes: the Time Cumulated Indicator (TCI......The development of fisheries in the oceans, and other human drivers such as climate warming, have led to changes in species abundance, assemblages, trophic interactions, and ultimately in the functioning of marine food webs. Here, using a trophodynamic approach and global databases of catches......) measuring the residence time of biomass within the food web, and the Efficiency Cumulated Indicator (ECI) quantifying the fraction of secondary production reaching the top of the trophic chain. Then, we assessed, at the large marine ecosystem scale, the worldwide change of these two indicators over the 1950...

  8. Salt Marshes as Potential Indicatore of Global Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Daehyun; Cairens, David; Jung, S.H.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal scientists postulate that salt marshes are significantly affected by dynamics of global climate. However, few studies have explicitly proposed a perspective that regards salt marshes as potential indicators of climate change. This review article evaluates the possibility of salt marshes...... as indicators of global climate change, focusing upon three major aspects: sedimentary, vegetation, and biogeochemical dynamics. The previous literature concerned with these aspects commonly argues that the primary impact of climate change on salt marshes occurs via sea-level variations, because hydrologic...... fluctuations regulate the frequency, duration, and depth of over-marsh flooding events. Sedimentary, floristic, and biogeochemical dynamics prove to be significantly influenced by sealevel changes regardless of climate zones, and hence, undoubtedly possess a potential for indicating climate signatures. However...

  9. Climate change. A global threat to cardiopulmonary health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, Mary B; Thurston, George D; Balmes, John R; Pinkerton, Kent E

    2014-03-01

    Recent changes in the global climate system have resulted in excess mortality and morbidity, particularly among susceptible individuals with preexisting cardiopulmonary disease. These weather patterns are projected to continue and intensify as a result of rising CO2 levels, according to the most recent projections by climate scientists. In this Pulmonary Perspective, motivated by the American Thoracic Society Committees on Environmental Health Policy and International Health, we review the global human health consequences of projected changes in climate for which there is a high level of confidence and scientific evidence of health effects, with a focus on cardiopulmonary health. We discuss how many of the climate-related health effects will disproportionally affect people from economically disadvantaged parts of the world, who contribute relatively little to CO2 emissions. Last, we discuss the financial implications of climate change solutions from a public health perspective and argue for a harmonized approach to clean air and climate change policies.

  10. Global climate change adaptation priorities for biodiversity and food security.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Hannah

    Full Text Available International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.

  11. Global climate change adaptation priorities for biodiversity and food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H M; Peterson, A Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R

    2013-01-01

    International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.

  12. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H.

    1992-05-01

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available

  13. Critical perspectives on changing media environments in the Global South

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Poul Erik

    The main aim of this article is to give a general overview and theoretically discuss how significant changes in the media landscapes in Global South countries alter existing spaces and create new spaces for political and socio-cultural exchange, thus changing the complex interrelationship between...... media and society. Knowing that media is only one of many aspects in current societal changes, the focus will be more on the interrelationship between media and society and less on other aspects like globalization, education and political reforms. At the macro level, the article will discuss how...... for political and socio-cultural exchange. Finally, at the micro level, the changing patterns of every day media use by ordinary people will be discussed....

  14. Uncertainty and learning in a strategic environment. Global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baker, Erin

    2005-01-01

    Global climate change is rife with uncertainties. Yet, we can expect to resolve much of this uncertainty in the next 100 years or so. Therefore, current actions should reflect the value of flexibility. Nevertheless, most models of climate change, particularly game-theoretic models, abstract from uncertainty. A model of the impacts of uncertainty and learning in a non-cooperative game shows that the level of correlation of damages across countries is crucial for determining optimal policy

  15. Forecasting the Future: Exploring Evidence for Global Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    California Univ., San Diego, La Jolla. Inst. of Marine Resources.

    This curriculum and classroom activity guide considers evidence gathered in answer to questions concerning global environmental change. It describes methods that biologists, chemists, geologists, meteorologists, and physicists use to gather and interpret their findings. The activities and approaches in this guide were developed to meet the skill…

  16. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-03-04

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future.

  17. Oceans around Southern Africa and regional effects of global change

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Lutjeharms, JRE

    2001-03-01

    Full Text Available -surface temperature fields on weather and climate. At the same time, the marine biology and ecosystems of coastal waters have been extensively studied. Few studies have been concerned with the possible effects of global change on the physical and biological components...

  18. Modeling the potential impacts of global climate change in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    One of the hottest issues in the recent environmental research worldwide has become the harmful effects of climate change on the ecosystems and environment due to global warming. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries not only in the South East Asia but also in the world. It is predicted that a large portion of ...

  19. Seventh Grade Students' Conceptions of Global Warming and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Choi, Soyoung; Charusombat, Umarporn

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate seventh grade students' conceptions of global warming and climate change. The study was descriptive in nature and involved the collection of qualitative data from 91 seventh grade students from three different schools in the Midwest, USA. An open response and draw and explain assessment instrument was…

  20. Global climate change--The technology challenge: China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Population growth and developmental pressures, spawned by an increasing demand for resource intensive goods, foods and services, are altering the planet in ways that threaten the long-term well-being of humans and other species. Global climate change and its associated impacts is...

  1. The Changing Global Climate and its Implication on Sea Level ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract— Global mean sea levels show a general rising trend that has been accelerated by the recent changes in world climate. This is ascertained through geological and historical records, measurements from in situ tide gauges around the globe and since 1992, through satellite altimetry. About 60% of the 34 tide gauge ...

  2. Plant - microbe interactions under Global Change: the microbial perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    There is ample evidence that both microorganisms and plants will respond to Global Changes, such as enhanced temperatures, increased nitrogen deposition and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, or biodiversity loss. Plant and microbial activities are linked, amongst other factors, by belowground carbon allocation and aboveground nutrient allocation, which may be altered under Global Changes to different extents. The effect of Global Changes on the interaction of plants and microbes is therefore often difficult to predict. In my talk, I will look at plant-microbe interactions from a microbial perspective. I will ask the question what the direct and indirect (plant-mediated) effects of Global Changes are on microbial activities in soil and what this in turn means for plants and for ecosystem-scale fluxes. I will present results from an in-situ drought experiment, from a long-term soil warming experiment and from a plant diversity experiment, where we investigated microbial growth and turnover, carbon and nutrient use efficiency and gross nutrient transformation rates.

  3. Changes in the global value of ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costanza, R.; Groot, de R.S.; Sutton, P.; Ploeg, van der S.; Anderson, S.J.; Kubiszewski, I.; Farber, S.; Turner, R.K.

    2014-01-01

    In 1997, the global value of ecosystem services was estimated to average $33 trillion/yr in 1995 $US ($46 trillion/yr in 2007 $US). In this paper, we provide an updated estimate based on updated unit ecosystem service values and land use change estimates between 1997 and 2011. We also address some

  4. In brief... A Global Apollo Programme to tackle climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Richard Layard

    2015-01-01

    Leading thinkers across the worlds of science, public service and academia have launched a new global programme to combat climate change. Richard Layard outlines their proposal for big public investment in research that will dramatically reduce the costs of clean energy.

  5. Socio-economic data for global environmental change research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Otto, Ilona; Biewald, Anne; Coumou, Dim

    2015-01-01

    Subnational socio-economic datasets are required if we are to assess the impacts of global environmental changes and to improve adaptation responses. Institutional and community efforts should concentrate on standardization of data collection methodologies, free public access, and geo-referencing....

  6. Global Terrestrial Water Storage Changes and Connections to ENSO Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Shengnan; Chen, Jianli; Wilson, Clark R.; Li, Jin; Hu, Xiaogong; Fu, Rong

    2018-01-01

    Improved data quality of extended record of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite gravity solutions enables better understanding of terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations. Connections of TWS and climate change are critical to investigate regional and global water cycles. In this study, we provide a comprehensive analysis of global connections between interannual TWS changes and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, using multiple sources of data, including GRACE measurements, land surface model (LSM) predictions and precipitation observations. We use cross-correlation and coherence spectrum analysis to examine global connections between interannual TWS changes and the Niño 3.4 index, and select four river basins (Amazon, Orinoco, Colorado, and Lena) for more detailed analysis. The results indicate that interannual TWS changes are strongly correlated with ENSO over much of the globe, with maximum cross-correlation coefficients up to 0.70, well above the 95% significance level ( 0.29) derived by the Monte Carlo experiments. The strongest correlations are found in tropical and subtropical regions, especially in the Amazon, Orinoco, and La Plata basins. While both GRACE and LSM TWS estimates show reasonably good correlations with ENSO and generally consistent spatial correlation patterns, notably higher correlations are found between GRACE TWS and ENSO. The existence of significant correlations in middle-high latitudes shows the large-scale impact of ENSO on the global water cycle.

  7. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D.; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-01-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future. PMID:24344275

  8. Divergent pheromone-mediated insect behaviour under global atmospheric change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edward B. Mondor; Michelle N. Tremblay; Caroline S. Awmack; Richard L. Lindroth

    2004-01-01

    While the effects of global atmospheric changes on vegetation and resulting insect populations('bottom-up interactions') are being increasingly studied, how these gases modify interactions among insects and their natural enemies ('top-down interactions') is less clear. As natural enemy efficacy is governed largely by behavioural mechanisms, altered...

  9. Attribution of Global Precipitation Change over the Past 1000 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, J.; Wang, B.; Yim, S.

    2010-12-01

    Precipitation is essential to human life and sustainable civilization. Attribution of climate change of global precipitation is far more challenge than attributing temperature change. So far little has been known about the global precipitation change in the past. Using millennial simulations with a coupled climate model (ECHO-G), here we show that the global precipitation over the past millennium exhibits three major modes of variability. The largest portion of variability is associated with an internal mode which fluctuates irregularly and intermittently on multi-decadal time scale. More importantly, two salient forced modes that display distinct dynamic structures and origins are found, which together account for more variances than the internal mode. The first dominates the preanthropogenic change (pre-1850 AD) and is associated with solar-volcanic radiative variations. This natural forced mode shows a bicentennial oscillation superposed on a contrast between Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA). The enhanced (suppressed) precipitation during MWP (LIA) is coupled with a La Nina (El Nino) type global warming pattern. The second forced mode closely follows variation of greenhouse gas concentration and concentrates its variance in the industrial era (post-1850 AD). This anthropogenic mode is characterized by enhanced precipitation in western Pacific coupled with a central Pacific warming. The post-1850 trend in precipitation can be faithfully reconstructed by the two forced modes.

  10. Optimal function explains forest responses to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roderick Dewar; Oskar Franklin; Annikki Makela; Ross E. McMurtrie; Harry T. Valentine

    2009-01-01

    Plant responses to global changes in carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen, and water availability are critical to future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, hydrology, and hence climate. Our understanding of those responses is incomplete, however. Multiple-resource manipulation experiments and empirical observations have revealed a...

  11. The feathered world and the global climate: Current changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berthold, P.

    1998-01-01

    For the avifauna, environmental conditions in northern latitudes obviously have been changing to the better, primarily in the northern hemisphere, so that bird species have been expanding towards the northern face of the earth. This has been observed by ornitologists who came to realize that more species than before remained for longer periods in their northern breeding grounds, with reproduction rates increasing and mortality during the winter seasons declining. Most of the trends observed are significant, although there also are some species whose number in traditional living environments is declining. The positive trends are attributed to the recent global warming. Should this process continue, it is expected to cause considerable shifts in the bird population, from subtropical regions up to the polar regions. At our latitudes, the populations of non-migratory birds are expected to grow, while those of birds migrating over long distances should decline. This might reduce the diversity in species over a given period, but experts expect that this will be followed by growing and lasting diversity at our latitudes. (orig./CB) [de

  12. Global Changes in Food Supply and the Obesity Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zobel, Emilie H; Hansen, Tine W; Rossing, Peter; von Scholten, Bernt Johan

    2016-12-01

    We explore how a global shift in the food system caused by global economic growth, increase in available food per capita and in food processing is a driver of the obesity epidemic. Economic development in most areas of the world has resulted in increased purchasing power and available per capita food. Supermarkets and a growing fast-food industry have transformed our dietary pattern. Ultra-processed food rich on sugars and saturated fat is now the major source of energy in most countries. The shift in food supply is considered a major driver of the obesity epidemic and the increasing prevalence of accompanying complications, such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer. However, the global shift might also have direct effects on the increase in type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer, independently of overweight and obesity. The shift in the food supply is a major driver of the obesity epidemic.

  13. Global change in marine ecosystems: implications for semi-enclosed Arabian seas

    KAUST Repository

    Duarte, Carlos M.

    2015-12-07

    Global Change has been defined as the impact of human activities on the key processes that determine the functioning of the Biosphere. Global Change is a major threat for marine ecosystems and includes climate change as well as other global impacts such as inputs of pollutants, overfishing and coastal sprawl. The Semi-enclosed Arabian Seas, including the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea, have supported human livelihoods in the Arabian Peninsula over centuries and continue to do so, but are also threatened by Global Change. These threats are particularly severe as Semi-enclosed Arabian Seas already present rather extreme conditions, in terms of temperature, salinity and oxygen concentration. The vulnerability of the unique marine ecosystems of the Semi-enclosed Arabian Seas to Global Change vectors is largely unknown, but predictions based on first principles suggest that they may be at or near the tipping point for many pressures, such as warming and hypoxia. There is an urgent need to implement international collaborative research programs to accelerate our understanding of the vulnerability of Semi-enclosed Arabian Seas to Global Change vectors in order to inform conservation and management plans to ensure these Seas continue to support the livelihoods and well-being of the Arab nations.

  14. Global and Local Discourses on Climate Change: A Perspective from the Concept of Embeddedness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jailab Kumar Rai

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has been becoming a major order of business of all including researchers and academics. This is known that global, national and local organizations, institutions and even the individuals are partaking into the issues with their own perspectives and skills of negotiations. Despite the series of international efforts and attempts, there are also a series of national concerns, efforts and attempts in combating against the effects of global climate change. This paper is an attempt to draw on the overview of contexts and concerns of international communities for combating global climate change and its discursive influence in national policy discourses. Moreover, the paper attempts to assess the local socio-cultural discourses and dynamics of climate change in relation to global and national discourses. Finally the paper highlights on how global and local climate change knowledge networks and epistemic communities either from political processes or the socio-economic fabrics are interrelated and determinant to each other. Keywords: climate change; discourses; embeddeness; dynamics; global; local DOI: 10.3126/dsaj.v4i0.4518 Dhaulagiri Journal of Sociology and Anthropology Vol.4 2010 pp.143-180

  15. National inventory of Global Change relevant research in Norway; Nasjonal kartlegging av global change-relevant forskning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-05-01

    The Norwegian Global Change Committee has made an inventory of global change research (GCR) projects funded by the Research Council of Norway (RCN) in 2001. In lack of a rigid definition, GCR was defined as research that can be considered relevant to the science agenda of the four major international global change programmes DIVERSITAS, IGBP, IHDP and WCRP. Relevance was judged based on the objectives stated for each of the international programmes and their core projects. It was not attempted to check whether the projects had any kind of link to the programmes they were considered relevant for. The grants provided by the RCN in 2001 to GCR as defined above amounts to about 77 mill. NOK. Based on a recent survey on climate change research it is reasonable to estimate that the RCN finances between 30 and 40 % of all GCR in Norway. Accordingly, the total value of Norwegian research relevant to the four international global change programmes in 2001 can be estimated to 192 - 254 mill. NOK.

  16. CHANGE MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES RELATED TO THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT COMPLEXITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena DOVAL

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The changes in organizations appear as a reaction to the organizational environment changes. In order to manage these changes successfully, the managers need to anticipate and design alternative strategies by preparing different options.  Nevertheless, the complexity of the global environment forces the managers to adopt strategies for their organizations that are facilitating the creation of new strategic competences and competitive advantages to face the environmental rapid changes. In this context, this paper is aiming to illustrate the main directions the change management may consider to change the organization strategies in order to harmonize them to the external environment, such as: integration versus externalization, flexible specialization and flexible organization, standardization versus adaptation, market segmentation, relationship building and maintaining and communication integration.  However, the new strategies are based on a changed attitude of the managers towards the competitive advantage that is dynamic and focused on creation rather then to operations.

  17. Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Stefano; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.; Marti Roca, Maria Eugenia

    2016-01-01

    Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream–terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream–riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream–terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic

  18. The Elements of Business Process Change

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    and good working environment. Keywords: Business Process Change, Success Factors, BPC Outcomes ... conduct their business. Literature has confirmed that failures and successes of numerous BPR projects ... innovation, business process redesign and business process management. (BPM) are terms frequently used ...

  19. Change in requirements during the design process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sudin, Mohd Nizam Bin; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema

    2011-01-01

    Specification is an integral part of the product development process. Frequently, more than a single version of a specification is produced due to changes in requirements. These changes are often necessary to ensure the scope of the design problem is as clear as possible. However, the negative...... effects of such changes include an increase in lead-time and cost. Thus, support to mitigate change in requirements is essential. A thorough understanding of the nature of changes in requirements is essential before a method or tool to mitigate these changes can be proposed. Therefore, a case study...... approach was employed to understand the nature of change in requirements during the design process - particularly concerning the initiation, discovery, and motivation of these changes. Semi-structured interviews were adopted as the data collection method. The interviews were transcribed and analysed based...

  20. Global change and the measurement of absolute sea-level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diamante, John M.; Pyle, Thomas E.; Carter, William E.; Scherer, Wolfgang

    To quantify properly the long-term response of sea-level to climate change, land motions must be separated from the apparent or relative sea-level change recorded by conventional tide/sea-level gauges. Here we present a concept for global measurement of the true or “absolute” sea-level change, which combines recent advances in space-based geodetic techniques with plans for a global sea-level network under the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Data from initial feasibility tests show that land motion, due to global (plate tectonic), regional (glacial rebound), or local (fluid withdrawal) effects, can probably be measured to ±1cm (on a single measurement basis) by an innovative combination of Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) and Global Positioning System (GPS) tevhniques. By making repeated observations of position at a number of tide gauges using portable, economical GPS receivers in a differential mode relative to the fewer, more stable, but more expensive VLBI observatories, it will be possible to subtract land motion from the relative sea-level signal. Decadal to century scale trends at the 1-2mm y -1 level will be resolvable in the sea-level and vertical land motion time series within about a decade. Detection of subsidence or uplift at specific gauges will allow correction for land motion or deletion of bad data when computing regional or global, i.e. eustatic, sea-level changes. In addition to their applications in oceanography and climate studies, such data will test models by Peltier and other that relate mantle viscosity and deglaciation history to present rates of crustal subsidence or uplift. If the predicted crustal motions are confirmed, we can also have more confidence in the use of historical tide/sea-level gauge records in retrospective studies of sea-level change related to climate variability on decadal or longer time scales. It is concluded that as few as one-third (about 100) of the total number of tide/sea-level gauges (250

  1. Global soil carbon projections are improved by modelling microbial processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieder, William R.; Bonan, Gordon B.; Allison, Steven D.

    2013-10-01

    Society relies on Earth system models (ESMs) to project future climate and carbon (C) cycle feedbacks. However, the soil C response to climate change is highly uncertain in these models and they omit key biogeochemical mechanisms. Specifically, the traditional approach in ESMs lacks direct microbial control over soil C dynamics. Thus, we tested a new model that explicitly represents microbial mechanisms of soil C cycling on the global scale. Compared with traditional models, the microbial model simulates soil C pools that more closely match contemporary observations. It also projects a much wider range of soil C responses to climate change over the twenty-first century. Global soils accumulate C if microbial growth efficiency declines with warming in the microbial model. If growth efficiency adapts to warming, the microbial model projects large soil C losses. By comparison, traditional models project modest soil C losses with global warming. Microbes also change the soil response to increased C inputs, as might occur with CO2 or nutrient fertilization. In the microbial model, microbes consume these additional inputs; whereas in traditional models, additional inputs lead to C storage. Our results indicate that ESMs should simulate microbial physiology to more accurately project climate change feedbacks.

  2. Climate change at the coast: from global to local; Impact du changement climatique sur la cote: de global a local

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watkinson, A.R. [Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (United Kingdom); East Anglia Univ., School of East Science, Norwich (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    The IPCC has recently documented substantial changes in the global heat content of the oceans, salinity, sea level, thermal expansion and biogeochemistry. Over the 21. century anticipated climate related changes include: a rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more; increases in sea surface temperatures up to 3 deg. C; an intensification of tropical and extra tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/ run-off; and ocean acidification. The Tyndall Centre has been exploring how to down-scale the global analysis to the local level within the framework of a coastal simulator. The simulator provides information on possible future states of the coast through the 21. Century under a range of climate and socio-economic futures and shoreline management options. It links models within a nested framework, recognizing three scales: (1) global, (2) regional, and (3) local. The linked models describe a range of processes, including marine climate (waves, surges and mean sea level), sand bank morpho-dynamics, wave transformation, shoreline morpho-dynamics, built environment scenarios, ecosystem change, and erosion and flood risk. Analyses from the simulator reinforce conclusions from IPCC WG2: coasts will be exposed to increasing risks over coming decades due to many compounding climate-change factors; the impact of climate change on coasts will be exacerbated by increasing human induced pressures; the unavoidability of sea-level rise even in the longer-term frequently conflicts with present day human development patterns and trends. (author)

  3. Understanding global climate change scenarios through bioclimate stratification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soteriades, A. D.; Murray-Rust, D.; Trabucco, A.; Metzger, M. J.

    2017-08-01

    Despite progress in impact modelling, communicating and understanding the implications of climatic change projections is challenging due to inherent complexity and a cascade of uncertainty. In this letter, we present an alternative representation of global climate change projections based on shifts in 125 multivariate strata characterized by relatively homogeneous climate. These strata form climate analogues that help in the interpretation of climate change impacts. A Random Forests classifier was calculated and applied to 63 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate scenarios at 5 arcmin resolution. Results demonstrate how shifting bioclimate strata can summarize future environmental changes and form a middle ground, conveniently integrating current knowledge of climate change impact with the interpretation advantages of categorical data but with a level of detail that resembles a continuous surface at global and regional scales. Both the agreement in major change and differences between climate change projections are visually combined, facilitating the interpretation of complex uncertainty. By making the data and the classifier available we provide a climate service that helps facilitate communication and provide new insight into the consequences of climate change.

  4. Phylogenetic responses of forest trees to global change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John K Senior

    Full Text Available In a rapidly changing biosphere, approaches to understanding the ecology and evolution of forest species will be critical to predict and mitigate the effects of anthropogenic global change on forest ecosystems. Utilizing 26 forest species in a factorial experiment with two levels each of atmospheric CO2 and soil nitrogen, we examined the hypothesis that phylogeny would influence plant performance in response to elevated CO2 and nitrogen fertilization. We found highly idiosyncratic responses at the species level. However, significant, among-genetic lineage responses were present across a molecularly determined phylogeny, indicating that past evolutionary history may have an important role in the response of whole genetic lineages to future global change. These data imply that some genetic lineages will perform well and that others will not, depending upon the environmental context.

  5. Changes in aridity in response to the global warming hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Xiaodan; Huang, Jianping; Guo, Ruixia

    2017-02-01

    The global warming slowdown or warming hiatus, began around the year 2000 and has persisted for nearly 15 years. Most studies have focused on the interpretation of the hiatus in temperature. In this study, changes in a global aridity index (AI) were analyzed by using a newly developed dynamical adjustment method that can successfully identify and separate dynamically induced and radiatively forced aridity changes in the raw data. The AI and Palmer Drought Severity Index produced a wetting zone over the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in recent decades. The dynamical adjustment analysis suggested that this wetting zone occurred in response to the global warming hiatus. The dynamically induced AI (DAI) played a major role in the AI changes during the hiatus period, and its relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) also indicated that different phases of the NAO, PDO, and AMO contributed to different performances of the DAI over the Northern Hemisphere. Although the aridity wetting over the mid-to-high latitudes may relieve long-term drying in certain regions, the hiatus is temporary, and so is the relief. Accelerated global warming will return when the NAO, PDO, and AMO revert to their opposite phases in the future, and the wetting zone is likely to disappear.

  6. Global Surface Temperature Change and Uncertainties Since 1861

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Samuel S. P.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The objective of this talk is to analyze the warming trend and its uncertainties of the global and hemi-spheric surface temperatures. By the method of statistical optimal averaging scheme, the land surface air temperature and sea surface temperature observational data are used to compute the spatial average annual mean surface air temperature. The optimal averaging method is derived from the minimization of the mean square error between the true and estimated averages and uses the empirical orthogonal functions. The method can accurately estimate the errors of the spatial average due to observational gaps and random measurement errors. In addition, quantified are three independent uncertainty factors: urbanization, change of the in situ observational practices and sea surface temperature data corrections. Based on these uncertainties, the best linear fit to annual global surface temperature gives an increase of 0.61 +/- 0.16 C between 1861 and 2000. This lecture will also touch the topics on the impact of global change on nature and environment. as well as the latest assessment methods for the attributions of global change.

  7. TRENDS '90: A compendium of data on global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W. (eds.); Boden, T.A.; Kanciruk, P.; Farrell, M.P.

    1990-08-01

    This document is a source of frequently used global change data. This first issue includes estimates for global and national CO{sub 2} emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and from the production of cement, historical and modern records of atmospheric CO{sub 2} and methane concentrations, and several long-term temperature records. Included are tabular and graphical presentations of the data, discussions of trends in the data, and references to publications that provide further information. Data are presented in a two-page format, each dealing with a different data set. All data are available in digital form from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

  8. Future aridity under conditions of global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asadi Zarch, Mohammad Amin; Sivakumar, Bellie; Malekinezhad, Hossein; Sharma, Ashish

    2017-11-01

    Global climate change is anticipated to cause some major changes in hydroclimatic conditions around the world. As aridity is a reliable indicator of potential available water, assessment of its changes under future climatic conditions is important for proper management of water. This study employs the UNESCO aridity/humidity index, which is a derivative of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), for assessment of aridity. Historical (1901-2005) simulations and future (2006-2100) projections of 22 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are studied. The Nested Bias Correction (NBC) approach is used to correct possible biases of precipitation (simulated directly by the GCMs) and PET (estimated by applying FAO56-Penman-Monteith model on simulated parameters of the GCMs). To detect future aridity changes, the areal extents of the aridity zones in the past and future periods as well as through four sub-periods (2006-2025, 2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100) of the future are compared. The results indicate that changes in climate will alter the areal extents of aridity zones in the future. In general, from the first sub-period towards the last one, the area covered by hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid zones will increase (by 7.46%, 7.01%, 5.80%, and 2.78%, respectively), while the area of the humid regions will decrease (by 4.76%), suggesting that there will be less water over the global land area in the future. To understand the cause of these changes, precipitation and PET are also separately assumed to be stationary throughout the four future sub-periods and the resulting aridity changes are then analyzed. The results reveal that the aridity changes are mostly caused by the positive PET trends, even though the slight precipitation increase lessens the magnitude of the changes.

  9. Change in requirements during the design process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sudin, Mohd Nizam Bin; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema

    2011-01-01

    approach was employed to understand the nature of change in requirements during the design process - particularly concerning the initiation, discovery, and motivation of these changes. Semi-structured interviews were adopted as the data collection method. The interviews were transcribed and analysed based...... on a pre-defined coding scheme. The results of the study shows that change in requirements were initiated by internal stakeholders through analysis and evaluation activities during the design process, meanwhile external stakeholders were requested changes during the meeting with consultant. All......Specification is an integral part of the product development process. Frequently, more than a single version of a specification is produced due to changes in requirements. These changes are often necessary to ensure the scope of the design problem is as clear as possible. However, the negative...

  10. The effects of global change upon United States air quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Abraham, R.; Chung, S. H.; Avise, J.; Lamb, B.; Salathé, E. P., Jr.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D.; Guenther, A.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Zhang, Y.; Streets, D. G.

    2015-11-01

    To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the United States (US), we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of changes in climate, biogenic emissions, land use and global/regional anthropogenic emissions on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations and composition. Results from the ECHAM5 global climate model driven with the A1B emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to provide regional meteorological fields. We developed air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) chemical transport model for two nested domains with 220 and 36 km horizontal grid cell resolution for a semi-hemispheric domain and a continental United States (US) domain, respectively. The semi-hemispheric domain was used to evaluate the impact of projected global emissions changes on US air quality. WRF meteorological fields were used to calculate current (2000s) and future (2050s) biogenic emissions using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). For the semi-hemispheric domain CMAQ simulations, present-day global emissions inventories were used and projected to the 2050s based on the IPCC A1B scenario. Regional anthropogenic emissions were obtained from the US Environmental Protection Agency National Emission Inventory 2002 (EPA NEI2002) and projected to the future using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model assuming a business as usual scenario that extends current decade emission regulations through 2050. Our results suggest that daily maximum 8 h average ozone (DM8O) concentrations will increase in a range between 2 to 12 parts per billion (ppb) across most of the continental US. The highest increase occurs in the South, Central and Midwest regions of the US due to

  11. Communicating global climate change using simple indices: an update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drost, Frank; Karoly, David [University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Braganza, Karl [National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2012-08-15

    Previous studies have shown that there are several indices of global-scale temperature variations, in addition to global-mean surface air temperature, that are useful for distinguishing natural internal climate variations from anthropogenic climate change. Appropriately defined, such indices have the ability to capture spatio-temporal information in a similar manner to optimal fingerprints of climate change. These indices include the contrast between the average temperatures over land and over oceans, the Northern Hemisphere meridional temperature gradient, the temperature contrast between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere and the magnitude of the annual cycle of average temperatures over land. They contain information independent of the global-mean temperature for internal climate variations at decadal time scales and represent different aspects of the climate system, yet they show common responses to anthropogenic climate change. In addition, the ratio of average temperature changes over land to those over the oceans should be nearly constant for transient climate change. Hence, supplementing analysis of global-mean surface temperature with analyses of these indices can strengthen results of attribution studies of causes of observed climate variations. In this study, we extend the previous work by including the last 10 years of observational data and the CMIP3 climate model simulations analysed for the IPCC AR4. We show that observed changes in these indices over the last 10 years provide increased evidence of an anthropogenic influence on climate. We also show the usefulness of these indices for evaluating the performance of climate models in simulating large-scale variability of surface temperature. (orig.)

  12. ASM Lecture Series: Global Warming and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowland, F. S.

    2010-01-01

    The melting of ice and permafrost in the north polar region and the shrinking of the tropical glaciers are signals that global warming is no longer solely a warning about the future, but changes which have already arrived. The initial effects of this warming are noticeably present, and the concerns are now of substantial climate change in the near future. Modeling of the consequences on the future atmosphere from increased release of greenhouse gases and some of the possible consequences of climate change, such as rising sea levels and melting of the north polar ice, are discussed. (author)

  13. The Effect of Land Use (Deforestation) on Global Changing and its consequences in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onursal Denli, G.; Denli, H. H.

    2015-12-01

    Land use has generally been considered as a local environmental issue, but it is becoming a force of global importance. Global changes to forests, farmlands, waterways, and air are being driven by the need to provide food, water and shelter to more than six billion people. Global croplands, pastures, plantations and urban areas have expanded in recent decades, accompanied by large increases in energy, water and fertilizer consumption, along with considerable losses of biodiversity. Especially the forests influence climate through physical, chemical and biological processes that affect planetary energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. Such changes in land use have enabled humans to appropriate an increasing share of the planet's resources, but they also potentially undermine the capacity of ecosystems to sustain food production, maintain freshwater and forest resources, regulate climate and air quality. Global Warming and Climate Change are the two main fundamental problems facing Turkey as well as the World. The expedition and size of this change is becoming noticeably conspicuous now. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), the global temperature has been increased of about 0.74 degree Celsius since the Industrial Revolution. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change. The general scientific opinions on the climate change states that in the past 50 years, global warming has effected the human life resulting with very obvious influences. High rates of deforestation within a country are most commonly linked to population growth and poverty. In Turkey, the forests are destroyed for various reasons resulting to a change in the climate. This study examines the causes of

  14. Plant health and global change--some implications for landscape management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pautasso, Marco; Dehnen-Schmutz, Katharina; Holdenrieder, Ottmar; Pietravalle, Stéphane; Salama, Nabeil; Jeger, Mike J; Lange, Eckart; Hehl-Lange, Sigrid

    2010-11-01

    Global change (climate change together with other worldwide anthropogenic processes such as increasing trade, air pollution and urbanization) will affect plant health at the genetic, individual, population and landscape level. Direct effects include ecosystem stress due to natural resources shortage or imbalance. Indirect effects include (i) an increased frequency of natural detrimental phenomena, (ii) an increased pressure due to already present pests and diseases, (iii) the introduction of new invasive species either as a result of an improved suitability of the climatic conditions or as a result of increased trade, and (iv) the human response to global change. In this review, we provide an overview of recent studies on terrestrial plant health in the presence of global change factors. We summarize the links between climate change and some key issues in plant health, including tree mortality, changes in wildfire regimes, biological invasions and the role of genetic diversity for ecosystem resilience. Prediction and management of global change effects are complicated by interactions between globalization, climate and invasive plants and/or pathogens. We summarize practical guidelines for landscape management and draw general conclusions from an expanding body of literature. © 2010 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2010 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  15. The role of trade costs in global production networks : evidence from China's processing trade regime

    OpenAIRE

    Ma, Alyson C.; Van Assche, Ari

    2010-01-01

    In a seminal contribution, Yi (2003) has shown that vertically specialized trade should be more sensitive to changes in trade costs than regular trade. Yet empirical evidence of this remains remarkably scant. This paper uses data from China's processing trade regime to analyze the role of trade costs on trade within global production networks (GPNs). Under this regime, firms are granted du...

  16. Globalisation and the foreignisation of space: The seven processes driving the current global land grab.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zoomers, E.B.

    2010-01-01

    The current global land grab is causing radical changes in the use and ownership of land. The main process driving the land grab, or ‘foreignisation of space’, as highlighted in the media and the emerging literature is the production of food and biofuel for export in the aftermath of recent food

  17. Addressing Pre-service Teachers Ideas About Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, R. V.; Lambert, J. L.; Bleicher, R. E.; Lindgren, J.; Edwards, A.; Soden, B.

    2011-12-01

    Despite the scientific consensus about global climate change (GCC) and the potential risk, the media often portrays the science as controversial and as a debate (Kellstedt, Zahran, & Vedlitz, 2008; Washington & Cook, 2011). According to a recent report, young adults are divided on the issue of global warming (Feldman, Nisbet, Leiserowitz, & Maibach, 2010). Understanding both the science and the nature of this issue is especially important for future teachers. Also, given that K-12 students have numerous alternative conceptions or lack of prior knowledge, it is critical that teachers have an understanding of the fundamental science underlying climate change. This study examines undergraduate science methods students' views of GCC, the relationship between students' views and their knowledge of GCC, and the impact of the course instructional approach. Students' views of GCC were assessed using the Views of Global Climate Change instrument (VGCC), a survey developed by the authors of this study (Lambert et al., 2010). The survey was developed to specifically measure students' views on: 1) their knowledge of GCC, 2) causes of GCC, 3) evidence (or indicators) of GCC, 4) impacts of GCC, 5) actions or solutions, 6) influence of politics on the issue of GCC, 7) scientific consensus, 8) trust of sources of information, and 9) concern about GCC. The Knowledge of Global Climate Change instrument (KGCC) (Lambert, Bleicher, & Lindgren, 2011) was employed to measure students' understanding of the greenhouse effect, carbon cycle, causes, and consequences of GCC. Pre-surveys indicated that 49% of the students felt that human activity was the main cause of climate change. At the conclusion of the course, 72% of the students thought that humans were causing climate change, and students' overall views about global warming significantly shifted toward being more concerned. Students' knowledge of the greenhouse effect, carbon cycle, causes, and impacts also increased significantly

  18. Global patterns in endemism explained by past climatic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansson, Roland

    2003-03-22

    I propose that global patterns in numbers of range-restricted endemic species are caused by variation in the amplitude of climatic change occurring on time-scales of 10-100 thousand years (Milankovitch oscillations). The smaller the climatic shifts, the more probable it is that palaeoendemics survive and that diverging gene pools persist without going extinct or merging, favouring the evolution of neoendemics. Using the change in mean annual temperature since the last glacial maximum, estimated from global circulation models, I show that the higher the temperature change in an area, the fewer endemic species of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and vascular plants it harbours. This relationship was robust to variation in area (for areas greater than 10(4) km2), latitudinal position, extent of former glaciation and whether or not areas are oceanic islands. Past climatic change was a better predictor of endemism than annual temperature range in all phylads except amphibians, suggesting that Rapoport's rule (i.e. species range sizes increase with latitude) is best explained by the increase in the amplitude of climatic oscillations towards the poles. Globally, endemic-rich areas are predicted to warm less in response to greenhouse-gas emissions, but the predicted warming would cause many habitats to disappear regionally, leading to species extinctions.

  19. A review of Thailand's strategies for global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boonchalermkit, S.

    1994-01-01

    Thailand is greatly concerned about global climate change, which is caused primarily by the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and the release of chlorofluorocarbons. The country itself is not currently a major contributor to global climate change. However, as Thailand's economy expands and its burning of fossil fuels increases, the country's contribution to global climate change could increase. Thailand's use of primary energy supplies grew at an average rate of 13.4 percent per year in the period 1985 to 1990. The rapid, sustained growth was due to the overall pace of growth in the economy and the expansion of industrial, construction, and transportation activities. The primary energy demand was approximately 31,600 kilotons of oil equivalent (KTOE) in 1990. The transportation sector accounted for the largest proportion of energy demand at 30 percent. Within the next 15 years, the power sector is expected to overtake the transportation sector as the largest consumer of energy. Petroleum is currently the predominant source of energy in Thailand, accounting for 56 percent of the primary energy demand. Thailand recognizes that it has an important part to play in finding solutions to minimizing emissions of greenhouse gases and identifying viable response strategies. Thus, in this paper the authors will present several policy strategies relevant to climate change in Thailand and discuss how they have been implemented and enforced. Policies concerning forestry, energy, and environment are reviewed in detail in this paper

  20. The role of fish in a globally changing food system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Abigail J.; MacMillan, J. Randy

    2017-01-01

    Though humans have been fishing for food since they first created tools to hunt, modern food systems are predominately terrestrial focused and fish are frequently overlooked. Yet, within the global food system, fish play an important role in meeting current and future food needs. Capture fisheries are the last large-scale “wild” food, and aquaculture is the fastest growing food production sector in the world. Currently, capture fisheries and aquaculture provide 4.3 billion people with at least 15% of their animal protein. In addition to providing protein and calories, fish are important sources of critical vitamins and vital nutrients that are difficult to acquire through other food sources. As the climate changes, human populations will continue to grow, cultural tastes will evolve, and fish populations will respond. Sustainable fisheries and aquaculture are poised to fill demand for food not met by terrestrial food systems. Climate change and other global changes will increase, decrease, or modify many wild fish populations and aquaculture systems. Understanding the knowledge gaps around these implications for global change on fish production is critical. Applied research and adaptive management techniques can assist with the necessary evolution of sustainable food systems to include a stronger emphasis on fish and other aquatic organisms.

  1. Shifting global invasive potential of European plants with climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, A Townsend; Stewart, Aimee; Mohamed, Kamal I; Araújo, Miguel B

    2008-06-18

    Global climate change and invasions by nonnative species rank among the top concerns for agents of biological loss in coming decades. Although each of these themes has seen considerable attention in the modeling and forecasting communities, their joint effects remain little explored and poorly understood. We developed ecological niche models for 1804 species from the European flora, which we projected globally to identify areas of potential distribution, both at present and across 4 scenarios of future (2055) climates. As expected from previous studies, projections based on the CGCM1 climate model were more extreme than those based on the HadCM3 model, and projections based on the a2 emissions scenario were more extreme than those based on the b2 emissions scenario. However, less expected were the highly nonlinear and contrasting projected changes in distributional areas among continents: increases in distributional potential in Europe often corresponded with decreases on other continents, and species seeing expanding potential on one continent often saw contracting potential on others. In conclusion, global climate change will have complex effects on invasive potential of plant species. The shifts and changes identified in this study suggest strongly that biological communities will see dramatic reorganizations in coming decades owing to shifting invasive potential by nonnative species.

  2. The economics of long-term global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-09-01

    This report is intended to provide an overview of economic issues and research relevant to possible, long-term global climate change. It is primarily a critical survey, not a statement of Administration or Department policy. This report should serve to indicate that economic analysis of global change is in its infancy few assertions about costs or benefits can be made with confidence. The state of the literature precludes any attempt to produce anything like a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis. Moreover, almost all the quantitative estimates regarding physical and economic effects in this report, as well as many of the qualitative assertions, are controversial. Section I provides background on greenhouse gas emissions and their likely climatic effects and on available policy instruments. Section II considers the costs of living with global change, assuming no substantial efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Section III considers costs of reducing these emissions, though the available literature does not contain estimates of the costs of policies that would, on the assumptions of current climate models, prevent climate change altogether. The individual sections are not entirely compartmentalized, but can be read independently if necessary.

  3. Shifting global invasive potential of European plants with climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Townsend Peterson

    Full Text Available Global climate change and invasions by nonnative species rank among the top concerns for agents of biological loss in coming decades. Although each of these themes has seen considerable attention in the modeling and forecasting communities, their joint effects remain little explored and poorly understood. We developed ecological niche models for 1804 species from the European flora, which we projected globally to identify areas of potential distribution, both at present and across 4 scenarios of future (2055 climates. As expected from previous studies, projections based on the CGCM1 climate model were more extreme than those based on the HadCM3 model, and projections based on the a2 emissions scenario were more extreme than those based on the b2 emissions scenario. However, less expected were the highly nonlinear and contrasting projected changes in distributional areas among continents: increases in distributional potential in Europe often corresponded with decreases on other continents, and species seeing expanding potential on one continent often saw contracting potential on others. In conclusion, global climate change will have complex effects on invasive potential of plant species. The shifts and changes identified in this study suggest strongly that biological communities will see dramatic reorganizations in coming decades owing to shifting invasive potential by nonnative species.

  4. Global patterns of change in discharge regimes for 2100

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. C. Sperna Weiland

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This study makes a thorough global assessment of the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes and their accompanying uncertainties. Meteorological data from twelve GCMs (SRES scenarios A1B and control experiment 20C3M are used to drive the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. This reveals in which regions of the world changes in hydrology can be detected that have a high likelihood and are consistent amongst the ensemble of GCMs. New compared to existing studies is: (1 the comparison of spatial patterns of regime changes and (2 the quantification of notable consistent changes calculated relative to the GCM specific natural variability. The resulting consistency maps indicate in which regions the likelihood of hydrological change is large.

    Projections of different GCMs diverge widely. This underscores the need of using a multi-model ensemble. Despite discrepancies amongst models, consistent results are revealed: by 2100 the GCMs project consistent decreases in discharge for southern Europe, southern Australia, parts of Africa and southwestern South-America. Discharge decreases strongly for most African rivers, the Murray and the Danube while discharge of monsoon influenced rivers slightly increases. In the Arctic regions river discharge increases and a phase-shift towards earlier peaks is observed. Results are comparable to previous global studies, with a few exceptions. Globally we calculated an ensemble mean discharge increase of more than ten percent. This increase contradicts previously estimated decreases, which is amongst others caused by the use of smaller GCM ensembles and different reference periods.

  5. Coastline degradation as an indicator of global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Letcher, Trevor M.

    2009-01-01

    Finding a climate change signal on coasts is more problematic than often assumed. Coasts undergo natural dynamics at many scales, with erosion and recovery in response to climate variability such as El Niño, or extreme events such as storms and infrequent tsunamis. Additionally, humans have had enormous impacts on most coasts, overshadowing most changes that one can presently attribute directly to climate change. Each area of coast is experiencing its own pattern of relative sea-level change and climate change, making discrimination of the component of degradation that results from climate change problems. The best examples of a climate influence are related to temperature rise at low and high latitudes, as seen by the impacts on coral reefs and polar coasts, respectively. Observations through the twentieth century demonstrate the importance of understanding the impacts of sea-level rise and climate change in the context of multiple drivers of change; this will remain a challenge under a more rapidly changing climate. Nevertheless, there are emerging signs that climate change provides a global threat—sea ice is retreating, permafrost in coastal areas is widely melting. Reefs are bleaching more often, and the sea is rising—amplifying widespread trends of subsidence and threatening low-lying areas. To enhance the sustainability of coastal systems, management strategies will also need to address this challenge, focusing on the drivers that are dominant at each section of coast. Global warming through the twentieth century has caused a series of changes with important implications for coastal areas. These include rising temperatures, rising sea level, increasing CO2 concentrations with an associated reduction in seawater pH, and more intense precipitation on average.

  6. Preparing for Change: Challenges and Opportunities in a Global World

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hara, Sabine

    2009-03-01

    Our world is becoming increasingly global. This may sound like a clich'e, yet it is true nonetheless, and poses unprecedented challenges for graduate education. For the new generation of researchers, teachers and professionals to be successful they must be prepared in more than the content area of their chosen field. They must also acquire proficiency in global awareness, cultural literacy, multicultural teamwork and language facility. These global skill sets form the basis for effective multicultural collaboration and will become increasingly important even for those who do not intend to study or work abroad. Knowledge has become more portable in the internet age; large data bases and reports can be accessed in real time from various locations around the globe; information is exchanged in multifaceted knowledge networks; collaborative research takes place within and outside of the traditional venue of the research university in the private sector, research institutes, and associations; research networks span multiple disciplines as progress invariably occurs at the intersection of previously discrete fields of inquiry. Global collaboration thus is no longer dependent on the physical proximity of collaborators but can take place anywhere any time. This then requires yet another set of skills, namely the ability to adapt to change, exhibit flexibility and transfer skills to a range of contexts and applications. Effective graduate education must address these realities and expose students to learning opportunities that will enable them to acquire these much needed global skills sets.

  7. Stormy weather: 101 solutions to global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dauncey, G.; Mazza, P.

    2001-01-01

    This book provides a comprehensive guide to energy efficiency measures that would rid the world of the threat of global warming caused by the wasteful use of hydrocarbon fuels and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. The actions to be taken are not directed to governments and industry alone; indeed, the change must involve every segment of society to be effective. Accordingly, the book recommends actions that could be taken by individuals, citizen organizations, municipalities, businesses and organizations, energy companies, automobile companies, states and provinces, national governments, developing nations and global solutions. The recommendations range from choosing energy efficient appliances and buying green power, through increased recycling, reuse and reduced consumption, building solar and other renewable energy capacity, using sustainable fuels in automobiles, introducing tax measures favouring energy efficiency and sustainable development, to launching macro-level plans for a global green deal, establishing a global climate fund, accelerating the phase-out of CHCs, HCFCs and HFCs, forming a global ecological alliance and declaring a century of ecological restoration. Bibliographic notes, illustrations

  8. Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Peter; Rabin, Sam; Anthoni, Peter; Henry, Roslyn; Pugh, Thomas A M; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Arneth, Almut

    2018-02-27

    . Consequently, agricultural expansion and intensification may be lower than found in previous studies where spatial details and processes consideration were more constrained. © 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Global imprint of climate change on marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Sydeman, William J.

    2013-01-01

    Past meta-analyses of the response of marine organisms to climate change have examined a limited range of locations1,2, taxonomic groups2–4 and/or biological responses5,6. This has precluded a robust overview of the effect of climate change in the global ocean. Here, we synthesized all available......, in a manner inconsistent with expectations, and taxa demonstrating no response. From this database, 81–83% of all observations for distribution, phenology, community composition, abundance, demography and calcification across taxa and ocean basins were consistent with the expected impacts of climate change....... Of the species responding to climate change, rates of distribution shiftswere, on average, consistent with those required to track ocean surface temperature changes. Conversely, we did not find a relationship between regional shifts in spring phenology and the seasonality of temperature. Rates of observed shifts...

  10. Combined and interactive effects of global climatee change and toxicants on popuylations and communities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moe, S.R.; Schamphelaere, de K.A.C.; Clements, W.H.; Sorensen, T.; Brink, van den P.J.; Liess, M.

    2013-01-01

    Increased temperature and other environmental effects of global climate change (GCC) have documented impacts on many species (e.g., polar bears, amphibians, coral reefs) as well as on ecosystem processes and species interactions (e.g., the timing of predator-prey interactions). A challenge for

  11. Global energy scenarios, climate change and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2003-01-01

    Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments may affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals; such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. They can help explore different transitions toward sustainable development paths and alternative energy perspectives in general. The considerable differences in expected total energy requirements among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate effects of different policy frameworks, changes in human behavior and investments in the future, as well as alternative unfolding of the main scenario driving forces such as demographic transitions, economic development and technological change. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for achieving further social and economic development in the world. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies. In general, significant policy and behavioral changes will be needed during the next few decades to achieve more sustainable development paths and mitigate climate change toward the end of the century. (au)

  12. Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martens, W.J.M.; Rotmans, J. [National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection, Bilthoven (Netherlands)]|[Univ. of Limburg, Maastricht (Netherlands); Niessen, L.W. [National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Jetten, T.H. [Wageningen Agricultural Univ. (Netherlands); McMichael, A.J. [London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (United Kingdom)

    1995-05-01

    The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the numbers of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions, the effects of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities. 33 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  13. Global climate changes, natural disasters, and travel health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, James H

    2006-01-01

    Whether the result of cyclical atmospheric changes, anthropogenic activities, or combinations of both, authorities now agree that the earth is warming from a variety of climatic effects, including the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions to support human activities. To date, most reports of the public health outcomes of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on heat stroke deaths following heat waves, drowning deaths in floods and tsunamis, and mosquito-borne infectious disease outbreaks following tropical storms and cyclones. Accurate predictions of the true public health outcomes of global climate change are confounded by several effect modifiers including human acclimatization and adaptation, the contributions of natural climatic changes, and many conflicting atmospheric models of climate change. Nevertheless, temporal relationships between environmental factors and human health outcomes have been identified and may be used as criteria to judge the causality of associations between the human health outcomes of climate changes and climate-driven natural disasters. Travel medicine physicians are obligated to educate their patients about the known public health outcomes of climate changes, about the disease and injury risk factors their patients may face from climate-spawned natural disasters, and about the best preventive measures to reduce infectious diseases and injuries following natural disasters throughout the world.

  14. Climate change impacts on soil carbon storage in global croplands: 1901-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, W.; Tian, H.

    2015-12-01

    New global data finds 12% of earth's surface in cropland at present. Croplands will take on the responsibility to support approximate 60% increase in food production by 2050 as FAO estimates. In addition to nutrient supply to plants, cropland soils also play a major source and sink of greenhouse gases regulating global climate system. It is a big challenge to understand how soils function under global changes, but it is also a great opportunity for agricultural sector to manage soils to assure sustainability of agroecosystems and mitigate climate change. Previous studies have attempted to investigate the impacts of different land uses and climates on cropland soil carbon storage. However, large uncertainty still exists in magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of global cropland soil organic carbon, due to the lack of reliable environmental databases and relatively poorly understanding of multiple controlling factors involved climate change and land use etc. Here, we use a process-based agroecosystem model (DLEM-Ag) in combination with diverse data sources to quantify magnitude and tempo-spatial patterns of soil carbon storage in global croplands during 1901-2010. We also analyze the relative contributions of major environmental variables (climate change, land use and management etc.). Our results indicate that intensive land use management may hidden the vulnerability of cropland soils to climate change in some regions, which may greatly weaken soil carbon sequestration under future climate change.

  15. Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkama, Ramdane; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2016-02-01

    Changes in forest cover affect the local climate by modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water. The magnitude of this biophysical effect is still debated in the scientific community and currently ignored in climate treaties. Here we present an observation-driven assessment of the climate impacts of recent forest losses and gains, based on Earth observations of global forest cover and land surface temperatures. Our results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones, followed by temperate, tropical, and boreal zones. In the decade 2003-2012, variations of forest cover generated a mean biophysical warming on land corresponding to about 18% of the global biogeochemical signal due to CO2 emission from land-use change.

  16. Sulfur dioxide initiates global climate change in four ways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, Peter L.

    2009-01-01

    Global climate change, prior to the 20th century, appears to have been initiated primarily by major changes in volcanic activity. Sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) is the most voluminous chemically active gas emitted by volcanoes and is readily oxidized to sulfuric acid normally within weeks. But trace amounts of SO 2 exert significant influence on climate. All major historic volcanic eruptions have formed sulfuric acid aerosols in the lower stratosphere that cooled the earth's surface ∼ 0.5 o C for typically three years. While such events are currently happening once every 80 years, there are times in geologic history when they occurred every few to a dozen years. These were times when the earth was cooled incrementally into major ice ages. There have also been two dozen times during the past 46,000 years when major volcanic eruptions occurred every year or two or even several times per year for decades. Each of these times was contemporaneous with very rapid global warming. Large volumes of SO 2 erupted frequently appear to overdrive the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere resulting in very rapid warming. Such warming and associated acid rain becomes extreme when millions of cubic kilometers of basalt are erupted in much less than one million years. These are the times of the greatest mass extinctions. When major volcanic eruptions do not occur for decades to hundreds of years, the atmosphere can oxidize all pollutants, leading to a very thin atmosphere, global cooling and decadal drought. Prior to the 20th century, increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) followed increases in temperature initiated by changes in SO 2 . By 1962, man burning fossil fuels was adding SO 2 to the atmosphere at a rate equivalent to one 'large' volcanic eruption each 1.7 years. Global temperatures increased slowly from 1890 to 1950 as anthropogenic sulfur increased slowly. Global temperatures increased more rapidly after 1950 as the rate of anthropogenic sulfur emissions increased. By

  17. Joint sciences academies statement: global response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-06-01

    Taking into account that there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring, the Joint Science Academies, urge, by this statement, all nations in the line with the UNFCCC principles, to take prompt action to reduce the causes of climate change, adapt to its impacts and ensure that the issue is included in all relevant national and international strategies. Some recommendations are also given. (A.L.B.)

  18. On Change in Libraries in the Globalization Era

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Octavia-Luciana Porumbeanu

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The article approaches the theme of libraries - organizations that passed through many transformations over the centuries - in the context of changes generated by globalization and continuous development of information and communication technologies and underlines the fact that in these conditions libraries must reform their management, adapt permanently the services and products they provide to their users in order to maintain and stenghten an important position on the information delivery and knowledge transfer market.

  19. Global Welfare Impact of China: Trade Integration and Technology Change

    OpenAIRE

    Jing Zhang

    2013-01-01

    This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of China's trade integration and technological change in a multi-country quantitative Ricardian-Heckscher-Ohlin model. We simulate two alternative growth scenarios: a balanced one in which China's productivity grows at the same rate in each sector, and an unbalanced one in which China's comparative disadvantage sectors catch up disproportionately faster to the world productivity frontier. Contrary to a well-known conjecture (Samuelson 2004), the ...

  20. Global Demographic Change and Its Implications for Military Power

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Latin America , northern Africa, Turkey, Lebanon, Iran, formerly Soviet Central Asia, south - western India, and Southeast Asia—have also fallen sharply...2020s, include Latin America , 112 Global Demographic Change and Its Implications for Military Power North Africa, South Africa, Turkey, Iran... migration rates and that the demographics of Summary xvii Europe’s Muslim population resemble those of the countries from which it draws its

  1. Global geodetic observing system meeting the requirements of a global society on a changing planet in 2020

    CERN Document Server

    Plag, Hans-Peter

    2009-01-01

    Geodesy plays a key role in geodynamics, geohazards, the global water cycle, global change, atmosphere and ocean dynamics. This book covers geodesy's contribution to science and society and identifies user needs regarding geodetic observations and products.

  2. Intelligent earthquake data processing for global adjoint tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Y.; Hill, J.; Li, T.; Lei, W.; Ruan, Y.; Lefebvre, M. P.; Tromp, J.

    2016-12-01

    Due to the increased computational capability afforded by modern and future computing architectures, the seismology community is demanding a more comprehensive understanding of the full waveform information from the recorded earthquake seismograms. Global waveform tomography is a complex workflow that matches observed seismic data with synthesized seismograms by iteratively updating the earth model parameters based on the adjoint state method. This methodology allows us to compute a very accurate model of the earth's interior. The synthetic data is simulated by solving the wave equation in the entire globe using a spectral-element method. In order to ensure the inversion accuracy and stability, both the synthesized and observed seismograms must be carefully pre-processed. Because the scale of the inversion problem is extremely large and there is a very large volume of data to both be read and written, an efficient and reliable pre-processing workflow must be developed. We are investigating intelligent algorithms based on a machine-learning (ML) framework that will automatically tune parameters for the data processing chain. One straightforward application of ML in data processing is to classify all possible misfit calculation windows into usable and unusable ones, based on some intelligent ML models such as neural network, support vector machine or principle component analysis. The intelligent earthquake data processing framework will enable the seismology community to compute the global waveform tomography using seismic data from an arbitrarily large number of earthquake events in the fastest, most efficient way.

  3. Exploring Changes in Nitrogen and Phosphorus Retention in Global Rivers in the Twentieth Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beusen, A.; Bouwman, L.; Van Beek, R.; Wisser, D.; Hartmann, J.

    2012-12-01

    Nutrients are transported from land to sea through the continuum formed by components of river basins (soils, groundwater, riparian zones, streams, rivers, lakes, and reservoirs). The hydrology, ecology and biogeochemical processing in each of these components are strongly coupled and result in retention of a significant fraction of the nutrients transported. For analyzing the impact of multiple changes and disturbances at the global scale, we use a distributed approach to describe the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) transport and retention in all the above river basin components. A hydrological model is used to describe the water flow through the respective compartments. We analyze the changes in retention during the past century (1900-2000), as this period encompasses dramatic increases in human population and economic human activities that have resulted in global changes, such as climate change, land use change, changes in the hydrology by dam construction, irrigation, and consumptive water use. In the period 1900-2000, the global soil N budget surplus (inputs minus withdrawal by plants) for agricultural and natural ecosystems increased from 118 to 202 Tg yr-1, and the global P budget increased from nutrient spiraling concept. We concentrate on the flows of total N and total P, because of the importance of the ratios between these two elements for biogeochemistry and the functioning of aquatic ecosystems. Since the various processes in the different compartments in terms of delivery to surface water are poorly known, we present a sensitivity analysis of the modeled river export for a number of key variables.

  4. Evolutionary history of lagomorphs in response to global environmental change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deyan Ge

    Full Text Available Although species within Lagomorpha are derived from a common ancestor, the distribution range and body size of its two extant groups, ochotonids and leporids, are quite differentiated. It is unclear what has driven their disparate evolutionary history. In this study, we compile and update all fossil records of Lagomorpha for the first time, to trace the evolutionary processes and infer their evolutionary history using mitochondrial genes, body length and distribution of extant species. We also compare the forage selection of extant species, which offers an insight into their future prospects. The earliest lagomorphs originated in Asia and later diversified in different continents. Within ochotonids, more than 20 genera occupied the period from the early Miocene to middle Miocene, whereas most of them became extinct during the transition from the Miocene to Pliocene. The peak diversity of the leporids occurred during the Miocene to Pliocene transition, while their diversity dramatically decreased in the late Quaternary. Mantel tests identified a positive correlation between body length and phylogenetic distance of lagomorphs. The body length of extant ochotonids shows a normal distribution, while the body length of extant leporids displays a non-normal pattern. We also find that the forage selection of extant pikas features a strong preference for C(3 plants, while for the diet of leporids, more than 16% of plant species are identified as C(4 (31% species are from Poaceae. The ability of several leporid species to consume C(4 plants is likely to result in their size increase and range expansion, most notably in Lepus. Expansion of C(4 plants in the late Miocene, the so-called 'nature's green revolution', induced by global environmental change, is suggested to be one of the major 'ecological opportunities', which probably drove large-scale extinction and range contraction of ochotonids, but inversely promoted diversification and range expansion of

  5. Marine alien species as an aspect of global change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Occhipinti-Ambrogi

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The transport of organisms across oceans is an anthropogenic agent of global change that has profoundly affected the natural distribution of littoral biota and altered the makeup of biogeographic regions. The homogenization of marine biotas is a phenomenon especially affecting coastal regions and is spearheaded by a suite of opportunistic species at the expense of native species. Climate change may exacerbate the trend: sea surface temperatures, hydrodynamics, pH and carbonate cycles, already show marked fluctuations compared to the past. Alien invasive species are impacted by the change of marine climate in a variety of ways, which are we have just begun to notice, observe and interpret. A conceptual framework has yet to be conceived that links theories on biological introductions and invasions with the physical aspects of global change. Therefore predicting the scale of invasions or their impact on biodiversity is a daunting task. Integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change. The recorded spread of alien species and analysis of patterns of invasions may serve as the starting point for searching connections with climate change descriptors. The Mediterranean Sea is home to an exceptionally large number of alien species, resulting from its exceptional history and multiple vectors. For much of the twentieth century alien thermophilic species, which had entered the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal, have been confined to the Levantine Basin. In recent years climate driven hydrographic changes have coincided with a pronounced expansion of alien thermophilic biota to the central and western basins of the Mediterranean. We discuss some changes in emergent functions and services in Mediterranean ecosystems under the combined effect of invasive species and climate changes.

  6. Global Changes in Food Supply and the Obesity Epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zobel, Emilie H.; Hansen, Tine W; Rossing, Peter

    2016-01-01

    power and available per capita food. Supermarkets and a growing fast-food industry have transformed our dietary pattern. Ultra-processed food rich on sugars and saturated fat is now the major source of energy in most countries. The shift in food supply is considered a major driver of the obesity......Purpose of Review We explore how a global shift in the food system caused by global economic growth, increase in available food per capita and in food processing is a driver of the obesity epidemic. Recent Findings Economic development in most areas of the world has resulted in increased purchasing...... The shift in the food supply is a major driver of the obesity epidemic....

  7. GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN SOUTH AMERICA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PATRICK PATERSON

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Global warming presents one of the most serious threats to South American nations. Countries in the region are at risk of a variety of climate change related problems: rising sea levels, diminishing potable water supplies, forest res, intense storms and ooding, heat waves and the spread of diseases. These disasters are occurring more frequently in the region and will likely increase in intensity also. The armed forces in the region are the only government departments with both the capacity and the manpower to respond to these massive catastrophes. Military support to civilian authorities will be required more frequently and under more severe conditions as climate change conditions worsen.

  8. Global climate change and cryospheric evolution in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qin D.

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Major outcomes of Working Group I, IPCC AR4 (2007, as well as the recent understandings from our regional climatic assessments in China were summarized. Changes of cryosphere in China, one of the major components in regional climate system, is specifically reviewed. Under the global/regional warming, all components of cryosphere in China (Tibetan Plateau and surroundings including glaciers, frozen ground (including permafrost and snow cover show rapid decay in the last decades. These changes have big socioeconomic impacts in west China, thus encourages both government and scientists pay more and more attention to this field.

  9. Global changes alter soil fungal communities and alter rates of organic matter decomposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, J.; Frey, S. D.

    2016-12-01

    Global changes - such as warming, more frequent and severe droughts, increasing atmospheric CO2, and increasing nitrogen (N) deposition rates - are altering ecosystem processes. The balance between soil carbon (C) accumulation and decomposition is determined in large part by the activity and biomass of detrital organisms, namely soil fungi, and yet their sensitivity to global changes remains unresolved. We present results from a meta-analysis of 200+ studies spanning manipulative and observational field experiments to quantify fungal responses to global change and expected consequences for ecosystem C dynamics. Warming altered the functional soil microbial community by reducing the ratio of fungi to bacteria (f:b) total fungal biomass. Additionally, warming reduced lignolytic enzyme activity generally by one-third. Simulated N deposition affected f:b differently than warming, but the effect on fungal biomass and activity was similar. The effect of N-enrichment on f:b was contingent upon ecosystem type; f:b increased in alpine meadows and heathlands but decreased in temperate forests following N-enrichment. Across ecosystems, fungal biomass marginally declined by 8% in N-enriched soils. In general, N-enrichment reduced fungal lignolytic enzyme activity, which could explain why soil C accumulates in some ecosystems following warming and N-enrichment. Several global change experiments have reported the surprising result that soil C builds up following increases in temperature and N deposition rates. While site-specific studies have examined the role of soil fungi in ecosystem responses to global change, we present the first meta-analysis documenting general patterns of global change impacts on soil fungal communities, biomass, and activity. In sum, we provide evidence that soil microbial community shifts and activity plays a large part in ecosystem responses to global changes, and have the potential to alter the magnitude of the C-climate feedback.

  10. Does facial processing prioritize change detection?: change blindness illustrates costs and benefits of holistic processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilford, Miko M; Wells, Gary L

    2010-11-01

    There is broad consensus among researchers both that faces are processed more holistically than other objects and that this type of processing is beneficial. We predicted that holistic processing of faces also involves a cost, namely, a diminished ability to localize change. This study (N = 150) utilized a modified change-blindness paradigm in which some trials involved a change in one feature of an image (nose, chin, mouth, hair, or eyes for faces; chimney, porch, window, roof, or door for houses), whereas other trials involved no change. People were better able to detect the occurrence of a change for faces than for houses, but were better able to localize which feature had changed for houses than for faces. Half the trials used inverted images, a manipulation that disrupts holistic processing. With inverted images, the critical interaction between image type (faces vs. houses) and task (change detection vs. change localization) disappeared. The results suggest that holistic processing reduces change-localization abilities.

  11. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, David W; Barnett, Tim P; Santer, Benjamin D; Gleckler, Peter J

    2009-05-26

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures.

  12. Self-management of change processes in educational centers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Inés Vázquez

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the self-management processes of change, referring to a series of processes that take place in education centers undergoing change. The perspective from which the approach is proposed is educational management. The evidences integrated into the document are the result of a study conducted in Uruguay, which involved seven primary, secondary, and technical schools. The approach used has been the study of multiple cases with the intention of analyzing the phenomenon in specific contexts, integrating the possibility of studying it from a global perspective. The overall objective was to achieve greater understanding of the self-evaluation and change processes in schools. Within the specific objectives we highlight: to identify the possible links between self-assessment and decision making

  13. Globalized conflicts, globalized responses. Changing manners of contestation among indigenous communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Benyei, Petra; Turreira Garcia, Nerea; Orta-Martínez, Martí

    2017-01-01

    In a globalized world, environmental conflicts affecting indigenous communities (including hunter-gatherer groups) have intensified and grown in their transnational character. These changes have affected the choice of manners of contestation of these groups, favouring in some cases the emergence...... activities and confront conflicts through a truly bottom-up approach. The chapter ends discussing how, despite the potential of such new manners of contestation, the power imbalances that currently underpin many indigenous conflicts are first to be addressed....

  14. Phytoplankton niches, traits and eco-evolutionary responses to global environmental change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Litchman, Elena; Edwards, Kyle F.; Klausmeier, Christopher A.

    2012-01-01

    for various environmental factors like temperature, can be used to define niches along major axes. Characterization of pairwise and higher dimension trade-offs among traits should help predict possible niche changes along multiple dimensions simultaneously. The potential for evolutionary responses to global......Phytoplankton are major primary producers in aquatic ecosystems and are sensitive to various aspects of global environmental change. They can respond through phenotypic plasticity, species sorting, genetic adaptation, or a combination of these processes. Here we present conceptual, experimental...... and theoretical ways to predict different phytoplankton responses to global change. Using phytoplankton ecological niches to predict their responses to multiple environmental stressors is a promising new approach. Functional traits of phytoplankton, such as resource utilization traits and tolerance curves...

  15. Future changes in global warming potentials under representative concentration pathways

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reisinger, Andy [New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, PO Box 10002, Wellington 6143 (New Zealand); Meinshausen, Malte [Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany); Manning, Martin, E-mail: andy.reisinger@nzagrc.org.nz [Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington (New Zealand)

    2011-04-15

    Global warming potentials (GWPs) are the metrics currently used to compare emissions of different greenhouse gases under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Future changes in greenhouse gas concentrations will alter GWPs because the radiative efficiencies of marginal changes in CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O depend on their background concentrations, the removal of CO{sub 2} is influenced by climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, and atmospheric residence times of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O also depend on ambient temperature and other environmental changes. We calculated the currently foreseeable future changes in the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2}, which acts as the denominator for the calculation of all GWPs, and specifically the GWPs of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O, along four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) up to the year 2100. We find that the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2} decreases under all RCPs, although for longer time horizons this decrease is smaller than for short time horizons due to increased climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. The 100-year GWP of CH{sub 4} would increase up to 20% under the lowest RCP by 2100 but would decrease by up to 10% by mid-century under the highest RCP. The 100-year GWP of N{sub 2}O would increase by more than 30% by 2100 under the highest RCP but would vary by less than 10% under other scenarios. These changes are not negligible but are mostly smaller than the changes that would result from choosing a different time horizon for GWPs, or from choosing altogether different metrics for comparing greenhouse gas emissions, such as global temperature change potentials.

  16. Climate change, global risks, challenges and decisions. Synthesis report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Schellnhuber, H.J.

    2009-03-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009 (the 15th Conference of the Parties, COP-15) will be a critical step in developing a global response to the threat of climate change caused by human activities. The primary scientific input to those negotiations is the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2007. The IPCC report has already been instrumental in increasing both public and political awareness of the societal risks associated with unchecked emission of greenhouse gases. Since the production of the IPCC report, new knowledge has emerged that furthers understanding of the impacts of human influence on the climate and the response options and approaches that are available to tackle this complex issue. To bring this new knowledge together, the International Alliance of Research Universities organised an international scientific congress on climate change, Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions, which was held in Copenhagen from 10-12 March 2009. Participants came from nearly 80 different countries and contributed with more than 1400 scientific presentations. Abstracts for all of the scientific presentations made can be found at www.iop.org/EJ/volume/1755-1315/6, and a transcript of the closing plenary session can be found at environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/opinion/39126. This synthesis report presents an up-to-date overview of a broad range of research relevant to climate change - including fundamental climate science, the impacts of a changing climate on society and environment, and the many tools and approaches available to deal effectively with the challenge of climate change. (LN)

  17. Trade in water and commodities as adaptations to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammers, R. B.; Hertel, T. W.; Prousevitch, A.; Baldos, U. L. C.; Frolking, S. E.; Liu, J.; Grogan, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    The human capacity for altering the water cycle has been well documented and given the expected change due to population, income growth, biofuels, climate, and associated land use change, there remains great uncertainty in both the degree of increased pressure on land and water resources and in our ability to adapt to these changes. Alleviating regional shortages in water supply can be carried out in a spatial hierarchy through i) direct trade of water between all regions, ii) development of infrastructure to improve water availability within regions (e.g. impounding rivers), iii) via inter-basin hydrological transfer between neighboring regions and, iv) via virtual water trade. These adaptation strategies can be managed via market trade in water and commodities to identify those strategies most likely to be adopted. This work combines the physically-based University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model (WBM) with the macro-scale Purdue University Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices Land use and the Environment (SIMPLE) to explore the interaction of supply and demand for fresh water globally. In this work we use a newly developed grid cell-based version of SIMPLE to achieve a more direct connection between the two modeling paradigms of physically-based models with optimization-driven approaches characteristic of economic models. We explore questions related to the global and regional impact of water scarcity and water surplus on the ability of regions to adapt to future change. Allowing for a variety of adaptation strategies such as direct trade of water and expanding the built water infrastructure, as well as indirect trade in commodities, will reduce overall global water stress and, in some regions, significantly reduce their vulnerability to these future changes.

  18. Middle school students' conceptual change in global climate change: Using argumentation to foster knowledge construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Barry W.

    This research examined middle school student conceptions about global climate change (GCC) and the change these conceptions undergo during an argument driven instructional unit. The theoretical framework invoked for this study is the framework theory of conceptual change (Vosniadou, 2007a). This theory posits that students do not simply correct incorrect ideas with correct ones, but instead weigh incoming ideas against already existing explanatory frameworks, which have likely served the learner well to this point. The research questions were as follows: (1) What are the patterns of students' conceptual change in GCC? (a) What conceptions are invoked in student learning in this arena? (b) What conceptions are most influential? (c) What are the extra-rational factors influencing conceptual change in GCC? This research took place in an urban public school in a medium sized city in the southeastern United States. A sixth grade science teacher at Central Middle school, Ms. Octane, taught a course titled "Research Methods I., which was an elective science course that students took as part of a science magnet program. A unit was designed for 6th grade instruction that incorporated an Argument-Driven Inquiry (ADI) approach, centered on the subject matter of Global Climate change and Global Warming. Students were immersed in three separate lessons within the unit, each of which featured an emphasis upon creating scientific explanations based upon evidence. Additionally, each of the lessons placed a premium on students working towards the development of such explanations as a part of a group, with an emphasis on peer review of the robustness of the explanations proposed. The students were involved in approximately a two week unit emphasizing global climate change. This unit was based on an argumentation model that provided data to students and asked them to develop explanations that accounted for the data. The students then underwent a peer-review process to determine if

  19. Training change control process at Cernavoda NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valache, Cornelia Mariana

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents the process of 'Training Change Control' at Cernavoda NPP. This process is a systematic approach that allows determination of the most effective training and/or non-training solutions for challenges that may influence the content and conditions for a training program or course. Changes may be the result of: - response to station systems or equipment modifications; - new or revised procedures; - regulatory requirements; - external organizations requirements; - internal evaluations meaning feedback from trainees, trainers, management or post-training evaluations; - self-assessments; - station condition reports; - operating experience (OPEX); - modifications of job scope; - management input. The Training Change Control Process at Cernavoda NPP includes the following aspects. The first step is the identification of all the initiating factors for a potential training change. Then, retain only those, which could have an impact on training and classify them in two categories: as deficiencies or as enhancement suggestions. The process is different for the two categories. The deficiency category supposes the application of the Training Needs Analysis (TNA) process. This is a performance-oriented process, resulting in more competent employees, solving existing and potential performance problems. By using needs analysis to systematically determine what people or courses and programs are expected to do and gathering data to reveal what they are really doing, we can receive a clear picture of the problem and then we can establish corrective action plans to fix it. The process is supported by plant subjects matter and by training specialists. On the other hand, enhancements suggestions are assessed by designated experienced persons and then are implemented in the training process. Regarding these two types of initiating factors for the training change control process, the final result consists of a training improvement, raising the effectiveness, efficiency or

  20. Coordinated approaches to quantify long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Y.; Melillo, J.; Niu, S.

    2011-01-01

    from long-term experiments and process studies together with information from long-term observations, surveys, and space-for-time studies along environmental and biological gradients. Future research programs with coordinated long-term experiments, process studies, and modeling have the potential...... to be the most effective strategy to gain the best information on long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change....

  1. Now what do people know about global climate change? Survey studies of educated laypeople.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Travis William; Bostrom, Ann; Read, Daniel; Morgan, M Granger

    2010-10-01

    In 1992, a mental-models-based survey in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, revealed that educated laypeople often conflated global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion, and appeared relatively unaware of the role of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in global warming. This study compares those survey results with 2009 data from a sample of similarly well-educated laypeople responding to the same survey instrument. Not surprisingly, following a decade of explosive attention to climate change in politics and in the mainstream media, survey respondents in 2009 showed higher awareness and comprehension of some climate change causes. Most notably, unlike those in 1992, 2009 respondents rarely mentioned ozone depletion as a cause of global warming. They were also far more likely to correctly volunteer energy use as a major cause of climate change; many in 2009 also cited natural processes and historical climatic cycles as key causes. When asked how to address the problem of climate change, while respondents in 1992 were unable to differentiate between general "good environmental practices" and actions specific to addressing climate change, respondents in 2009 have begun to appreciate the differences. Despite this, many individuals in 2009 still had incorrect beliefs about climate change, and still did not appear to fully appreciate key facts such as that global warming is primarily due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and the single most important source of this carbon dioxide is the combustion of fossil fuels. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Regional climate change under high-end global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, Michael; Hemming, Deborah; Betts, Richard

    2010-05-01

    Global emissions of greenhouse gases have continued to rise throughout the 20th and 21st centuries. If no steps are taken to reduce these emissions, it is likely that global temperatures will exceed the limit of 2 deg.C by 2100 (relative to the preindustrial period) desired by the EU. The climate projections from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) suggest that global temperatures will increase between 1.6 and 6.9 deg.C by 2100, relative to the preindustrial period. Global mean temperature increases of 4 deg.C or more (referred to as 'high-end' projections) are therefore entirely possible. Here, we examine changes in temperature and precipitation from several ensembles of climate models, focusing on those projections where global mean temperatures increase by 4 deg.C or more by the 2090s. We have examined projections from the AR4 models, and the Hadley Centre's perturbed physics ensembles (Qump; based on the HadCM3 climate model). One of the Qump ensembles included an interactive carbon cycle. Previous work has shown that feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle can result in enhanced global warming. These ensembles used greenhouse gas concentrations from a subset of the SRES emission scenarios B1, A1B, A2 and A1FI. The results show that high-end climate change would be avoided if emissions follow the B1 trajectory. However, high-end changes become increasingly frequent under the A1B, A2 and A1FI scenarios (in that order). Overall, 52 of the 131 projections analysed were classed as high-end. The high-end projections suggest that 4 deg.C global warming could be reached by the 2080s, or by the 2070s if emissions are high. If feedbacks from the carbon cycle are strong, 4 deg.C could be reached as early as the 2060s, although our current understanding suggests that such strong feedbacks are unlikely. We also compared global maps of temperature and precipitation changes from the high-end and the remaining members of each ensemble. We found that, using multi

  3. How does global change affect the strength of trophic interactions?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Emmerson, M.; Bezemer, T.M.; Hunter, M.D.; Jones, T.H.; Masters, G.J.; Dam, van N.M.

    2004-01-01

    Recent research has generally shown that a small change in the number of species in a food web can have consequences both for community structure and ecosystem processes. However `change` is not limited to just the number of species in a community, but might include an alteration to such properties

  4. A global overview of the changing roles of radiographers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cowling, Cynthia

    2008-01-01

    The International Society of Radiographers and Radiological Technologists (ISRRT) provides a forum for information and discussion on developments and changes in the radiographic profession globally, with over 83 country member associations and through its official capacity of an affiliate of World Health Organisation (WHO). Role boundaries for radiographers are changing and expanding. A few countries, principally UK and USA, have established positions with specific scopes of practice. A global overview identifies a large gap between these countries and others who are still struggling to have the radiographic profession regulated and for whom recognized advanced practitioners are only a remote possibility. Factors such as skill shortages, cost containment, need for quality improvement, technological innovation, new medical interventions, new health sector programmes, health sector reform are driving these role changes everywhere. Some countries have moved further along the continuum of change than others. This article provides an overview of activities and developments in three regions. Some countries are working towards role extension and have substantive research in place while others have very little apparent information on this development. The article does not cover the established programs of USA and UK in depth, where there are many other publications available

  5. Differential responses of Miocene rodent metacommunities to global climatic changes were mediated by environmental context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanco, Fernando; Gómez Cano, Ana Rosa; Cantalapiedra, Juan L; Domingo, M Soledad; Domingo, Laura; Menéndez, Iris; Flynn, Lawrence J; Hernández Fernández, Manuel

    2018-02-06

    The study of how long-term changes affect metacommunities is a relevant topic, that involves the evaluation of connections among biological assemblages across different spatio-temporal scales, in order to fully understand links between global changes and macroevolutionary patterns. We applied multivariate statistical analyses and diversity tests using a large data matrix of rodent fossil sites in order to analyse long-term faunal changes. Late Miocene rodent faunas from southwestern Europe were classified into metacommunities, presumably sharing ecological affinities, which followed temporal and environmental non-random assembly and disassembly patterns. Metacommunity dynamics of these faunas were driven by environmental changes associated with temperature variability, but there was also some influence from the aridity shifts described for this region during the late Miocene. Additionally, while variations in the structure of rodent assemblages were directly influenced by global climatic changes in the southern province, the northern sites showed a pattern of climatic influence mediated by diversity-dependent processes.

  6. Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd A.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali; Rumbold, Steven T.; Sudo, Kengo; Takemura, Toshihiko; Bergmann, Daniel; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Doherty, Ruth M.; Josse, Beatrice; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Stevenson, David S.; Zeng, Guang

    2017-09-01

    Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) are associated with premature human mortality; their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term, and on climate change. Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change used single atmospheric models. However, in related studies, mortality results differ among models. Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. ), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM 2.5, we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM 2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.

  7. Global Food Security in a Changing Climate: Considerations and Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, M. K.; Brown, M. E.; Backlund, P. W.; Antle, J. M.; Carr, E. R.; Easterling, W. E.; Funk, C. C.; Murray, A.; Ngugi, M.; Barrett, C. B.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Dancheck, V.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Mata, T.; Ojima, D. S.; Grace, K.; Jiang, H.; Bellemare, M.; Attavanich, W.; Ammann, C. M.; Maletta, H.

    2015-12-01

    Global food security is an elusive challenge and important policy focus from the community to the globe. Food is provisioned through food systems that may be simple or labyrinthine, yet each has vulnerabilities to climate change through its effects on food production, transportation, storage, and other integral food system activities. At the same time, the future of food systems is sensitive to socioeconomic trajectories determined by choices made outside of the food system, itself. Constrictions for any reason can lead to decreased food availability, access, utilization, or stability - that is, to diminished food security. Possible changes in trade and other U.S. relationships to the rest of the world under changing conditions to the end of the century are considered through integrated assessment modelling under a range of emissions scenarios. Climate change is likely to diminish continued progress on global food security through production disruptions leading to local availability limitations and price increases, interrupted transport conduits, and diminished food safety, among other causes. In the near term, some high-latitude production export regions may benefit from changes in climate. The types and price of food imports is likely to change, as are export demands, affecting U.S. consumers and producers. Demands placed on foreign assistance programs may increase, as may demand for advanced technologies. Adaptation across the food system has great potential to manage climate change effects on food security, and the complexity of the food system offers multiple potential points of intervention for decision makers at every level. However, effective adaptation is subject to highly localized conditions and socioeconomic factors, and the technical feasibility of an adaptive intervention is not necessarily a guarantee of its application if it is unaffordable or does not provide benefits within a relatively short time frame.

  8. Adjusting process count on demand for petascale global optimization

    KAUST Repository

    Sosonkina, Masha

    2013-01-01

    There are many challenges that need to be met before efficient and reliable computation at the petascale is possible. Many scientific and engineering codes running at the petascale are likely to be memory intensive, which makes thrashing a serious problem for many petascale applications. One way to overcome this challenge is to use a dynamic number of processes, so that the total amount of memory available for the computation can be increased on demand. This paper describes modifications made to the massively parallel global optimization code pVTdirect in order to allow for a dynamic number of processes. In particular, the modified version of the code monitors memory use and spawns new processes if the amount of available memory is determined to be insufficient. The primary design challenges are discussed, and performance results are presented and analyzed.

  9. Enhancing climate literacy through the use of an interdisciplinary global change framework and conceptual models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, J. R.; Zoehfeld, K.; Mitchell, K.; Levine, J.; White, L. D.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding climate change and how to mitigate the causes and consequences of anthropogenic activities are essential components of the Next Generations Science Standards. To comprehend climate change today and why current rates and magnitudes of change are of concern, students must understand the various factors that drive Earth system processes and also how they interrelate. The Understanding Global Change web resource in development from the UC Museum of Paleontology will provide science educators with a conceptual framework, graphical models, lessons, and assessment templates for teaching NGSS aligned, interdisciplinary, climate change curricula. To facilitate students learning about the Earth as a dynamic, interacting system of ongoing processes, the Understanding Global Change site will provide explicit conceptual links for the causes of climate change (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, deforestation), Earth system processes (e.g., Earth's energy budget, water cycle), and the changes scientists measure in the Earth system (e.g., temperature, precipitation). The conceptual links among topics will be presented in a series of storyboards that visually represent relationships and feedbacks among components of the Earth system and will provide teachers with guides for implementing NGSS-aligned climate change instruction that addresses physical science, life sciences, Earth and space science, and engineering performance expectations. These visualization and instructional methods are used by teachers during professional development programs at UC Berkeley and the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History and are being tested in San Francisco Bay Area classrooms.

  10. Modulators of mercury risk to wildlife and humans in the context of rapid global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eagles-Smith, Collin A; Silbergeld, Ellen K; Basu, Niladri; Bustamante, Paco; Diaz-Barriga, Fernando; Hopkins, William A; Kidd, Karen A; Nyland, Jennifer F

    2018-03-01

    Environmental mercury (Hg) contamination is an urgent global health threat. The complexity of Hg in the environment can hinder accurate determination of ecological and human health risks, particularly within the context of the rapid global changes that are altering many ecological processes, socioeconomic patterns, and other factors like infectious disease incidence, which can affect Hg exposures and health outcomes. However, the success of global Hg-reduction efforts depends on accurate assessments of their effectiveness in reducing health risks. In this paper, we examine the role that key extrinsic and intrinsic drivers play on several aspects of Hg risk to humans and organisms in the environment. We do so within three key domains of ecological and human health risk. First, we examine how extrinsic global change drivers influence pathways of Hg bioaccumulation and biomagnification through food webs. Next, we describe how extrinsic socioeconomic drivers at a global scale, and intrinsic individual-level drivers, influence human Hg exposure. Finally, we address how the adverse health effects of Hg in humans and wildlife are modulated by a range of extrinsic and intrinsic drivers within the context of rapid global change. Incorporating components of these three domains into research and monitoring will facilitate a more holistic understanding of how ecological and societal drivers interact to influence Hg health risks.

  11. Modulators of mercury risk to wildlife and humans in the context of rapid global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Silbergeld, Ellen K.; Basu, Niladri; Bustamante, Paco; Diaz-Barriga, Fernando; Hopkins, William A.; Kidd, Karen A.; Nyland, Jennifer F.

    2018-01-01

    Environmental mercury (Hg) contamination is an urgent global health threat. The complexity of Hg in the environment can hinder accurate determination of ecological and human health risks, particularly within the context of the rapid global changes that are altering many ecological processes, socioeconomic patterns, and other factors like infectious disease incidence, which can affect Hg exposures and health outcomes. However, the success of global Hg-reduction efforts depends on accurate assessments of their effectiveness in reducing health risks. In this paper, we examine the role that key extrinsic and intrinsic drivers play on several aspects of Hg risk to humans and organisms in the environment. We do so within three key domains of ecological and human health risk. First, we examine how extrinsic global change drivers influence pathways of Hg bioaccumulation and biomagnification through food webs. Next, we describe how extrinsic socioeconomic drivers at a global scale, and intrinsic individual-level drivers, influence human Hg exposure. Finally, we address how the adverse health effects of Hg in humans and wildlife are modulated by a range of extrinsic and intrinsic drivers within the context of rapid global change. Incorporating components of these three domains into research and monitoring will facilitate a more holistic understanding of how ecological and societal drivers interact to influence Hg health risks.

  12. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karl, T. R.

    2009-12-01

    This past year the US Global Change Research Program released a report that summarized the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. The report underscores the importance of measures to reduce climate change. In the context of impacts, the report identifies examples of actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change. This state-of-knowledge report also identifies areas in which scientific uncertainty limits our ability to estimate future climate changes and its impacts. Key findings of the report include: (1) Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human induced. - This statement is stronger than the IPCC (2007) statement because new attribution studies since that report continue to implicate human caused changes over the past 50 years. (2) Climate Changes are underway in the Unites States and are projected to grow. - These include increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons lengthening ice-free seasons in the oceans and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt and alteration in river flows. (3) Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. - The impacts vary from region to region, but are already affecting many sectors e.g., water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, etc. (4) Climate change will stress water resources. - Water is an issue in every region of the US, but the nature of the impacts vary (5) Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. - Warming related to high emission scenarios often negatively affect crop growth and yields levels. Increased pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crops and livestock production. (6) Coastal areas are at increased risk from

  13. The Role of Volcanic Activity in Climate and Global Change

    KAUST Repository

    Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2015-09-23

    Explosive volcanic eruptions are magnificent events that in many ways affect the Earth\\'s natural processes and climate. They cause sporadic perturbations of the planet\\'s energy balance, activating complex climate feedbacks and providing unique opportunities to better quantify those processes. We know that explosive eruptions cause cooling in the atmosphere for a few years, but we have just recently realized that volcanic signals can be seen in the subsurface ocean for decades. The volcanic forcing of the previous two centuries offsets the ocean heat uptake and diminishes global warming by about 30%. The explosive volcanism of the twenty-first century is unlikely to either cause any significant climate signal or to delay the pace of global warming. The recent interest in dynamic, microphysical, chemical, and climate impacts of volcanic eruptions is also excited by the fact that these impacts provide a natural analogue for climate geoengineering schemes involving deliberate development of an artificial aerosol layer in the lower stratosphere to counteract global warming. In this chapter we aim to discuss these recently discovered volcanic effects and specifically pay attention to how we can learn about the hidden Earth-system mechanisms activated by explosive volcanic eruptions. To demonstrate these effects we use our own model results when possible along with available observations, as well as review closely related recent publications.

  14. Malaria Ecology, Disease Burden and Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccord, G. C.

    2014-12-01

    Malaria has afflicted human society for over 2 million years, and remains one of the great killer diseases today. The disease is the fourth leading cause of death for children under five in low income countries (after neonatal disorders, diarrhea, and pneumonia) and is responsible for at least one in every five child deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. It kills up to 3 million people a year, though in recent years scale up of anti-malaria efforts in Africa may have brought deaths to below 1 million. Malaria is highly conditioned by ecology, because of which climate change is likely to change the local dynamics of the disease through changes in ambient temperature and precipitation. To assess the potential implications of climate change for the malaria burden, this paper employs a Malaria Ecology Index from the epidemiology literature, relates it to malaria incidence and mortality using global country-level data , and then draws implications for 2100 by extrapolating the index using several general circulation model (GCM) predictions of temperature and precipitation. The results highlight the climate change driven increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease and the resulting complications for further gains in elimination. For illustrative purposes, I report the change in malaria incidence and mortality if climate change were to happen immediately under current technology and public health efforts.

  15. The New Phase of the Global Policy on Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Calanter

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change, a phenomenon that occurs worldwide, is one of the great challenges of our times.The scientific community has repeatedly drawn policy makers attention to the imperative need to adopt ofpreventive, mitigation and adaptation measures to what constitutes a threat to the normal course of life onEarth. Adoption and entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, with its ratification by Russia, in February 2005represented a major step forward in the global struggle against climate change. In this moment, however, theconclusion in 2012 of the commitment period for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases provided by theProtocol, and the brokenness of this period, put in front of the international community the need for furtherpolicy measures to prevent and combating climate change and its effects.

  16. Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Birge, Hannah E.; Drakare, Stina; McKie, Brendan G.; Johnson, Richard K.

    2014-01-01

    Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.

  17. Surface water change as a significant contributor to global evapotranspiration change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, S.; Song, C.

    2017-12-01

    Water comprises a critical component of global/regional hydrological and biogeochemical cycles and is essential to all organisms including humans. In the past several decades, climate change has intensified the hydrological cycle, with significant implications for ecosystem services and feedback to regional and global climate. Evapotranspiration (ET) as a linking mechanism between land surface and atmosphere is central to the water cycle and an excellent indicator of the intensity of water cycle. Knowledge of the temporal changes of ET is crucial for accurately estimating global or regional water budgets and better understanding climate and hydrological interactions. While studies have examined changes in global ET, they were conducted using a constant land and surface water (SW) area. However, as many studies have found that global SW is very dynamic and their surface areas have generally been increasing since the 1980s. The conversion from land to water and vice versa significantly changes the local ET since water bodies evaporate at a rate that can be much higher than that of the land. Here, we quantify the global changes in ET caused by such land-water conversion using remotely-sensed SW area and various ET and potential ET products. New SW and lost SW between circa-1985 and circa-2015 were derived from remote sensing and were used to modify the local ET estimates. We found an increase in ET in all continents as consistent with the net increase in SW area. The increasing SW area lead to a global increase in ET by 30.38 ± 5.28 km3/yr. This is a significant contribution when compared to the 92.95 km3/yr/yr increase in ET between 1982-1997 and 103.43 km3/yr/yr decrease between 1998-2008 by Jung et al., (2010) assuming a constant SW. The results enhance our understanding of the water fluxes between the land and atmosphere and supplement land water budget estimates. We conclude that changes in SW lead to a significant change in global ET that cannot be neglected in

  18. Delayed processing of global shape information in developmental prosopagnosia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerlach, Christian; Klargaard, Solja K.; Petersen, Anders

    2017-01-01

    There is accumulating evidence suggesting that a central deficit in developmental prosopagnosia (DP), a disorder characterized by profound and lifelong difficulties with face recognition, concerns impaired holistic processing. Some of this evidence comes from studies using Navon’s paradigm where...... that this reduced global precedence effect correlates both with the DPs’ face recognition abilities, as well as their ability to recognize degraded (non-face) objects. We suggest that the DPs’ impaired performance in all three domains (Navon, face and object recognition) may be related to the same dysfunction...

  19. Integrative Action Process in the Perspective of Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rauno Ilmari Pirinen

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Transformations of knowledge and collaboration with international R&D experts are becoming increasingly common and an important part of international competitiveness. The object of Integrative Action is to integrate the three statutory tasks set for universities of applied sciences in Finland: education, research and development, and regional development. The constructive research question addressed in this article is: What are the constructions and models contributing to international and global activities, which are used in implementation and actualization by Finnish universities of applied sciences? The case in this article is Laurea University of Applied Sciences. The new proposition involves the Integrative Action model, with its elements and its applications from the perspective of globalization. The main contributions of the integrative action and process model are 1 the creation of a sustainable and linear framework for cyclic innovation activities and 2 the implementation of regional development and globalization perspectives Laurea University of Applied Sciences’ everyday activities. The proposed models were applied and tested in higher education.

  20. Global Warming, Climate Change and Glacier Retreat of Nepal Himalayas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, S.; Hisaki, Y.

    2007-12-01

    Global average air temperature near the earth surface rose 0.74¡¾0.18¨¬C during the twentieth century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that observed increased globally averaged temperatures since mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the observed increment in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, which leads to warming of the surface and lower atmosphere by increasing the greenhouse effect. Climate models referred by IPCC project that global surface temperature are likely to be increase by 1.1 to 6.4¨¬C between 1990 and 2100. An increase in global temperature is expected to cause other changes including glacier retreat, sea level rise, increase intensity of extreme weather events and change in the pattern of precipitation, etc. The Nepal Himalaya revealed 3,252 glaciers and 2,323 lakes, which are 3,500 m above the sea level. They cover an area of 5,323 km2 with an estimated ice reserve of 481 km3. The average temperature in Nepal is rising by 0.5¨¬C per decade, and because of this reason, big glacial lakes in the country are at high risk of flooding from glacial lake bursts, which would have an adverse effect, such as huge loss of life and property. Nepal is facing a disturbance in mountain climate, flash floods, cloudbursts, erratic weather patterns and so on. The death of number of people due to floods and landslides is increasing annually. It is reported that more than 164 people already died because of floods and landslides during the current year, 2007 rainy season. Nepal does emit negligible greenhouse gases compare to developed and industrialized countries, however, country and people are facing the consequences of actions of other developed and industrialized countries. Study shows the¡¡disasters in current years and possible hazards in future due to the probable causes of global warming and recommends some suggestions for controlling of green house gases emission.