Climate change and the World Bank: opportunity for global governance?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boehmer-Christiansen, S.A.

1999-01-01

The direct and indirect efforts of the World Bank and its off-spring, the Global Environment Facility (GEF), to become leading international agents of global environmental 'governance' and 'sustainable development' are described and analysed politically with reference to the development of an implementation regime of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). The Bank/GEF are seen as engaging in a potentially dangerous experiment of 'global ecological modernisation', or industrial transformation, in 'emerging economies', an experiment legitimised by reference to the catastrophic threat of man-made 'global warming'. This threat is already being translated into political, commercial and bureaucratic benefits accruing to a small global elite. How was this achieved and what are the likely political implications? (author)

Global experience curves for wind farms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Junginger, M.; Faaij, A.; Turkenburg, W.C.

2005-01-01

In order to forecast the technological development and cost of wind turbines and the production costs of wind electricity, frequent use is made of the so-called experience curve concept. Experience curves of wind turbines are generally based on data describing the development of national markets, which cause a number of problems when applied for global assessments. To analyze global wind energy price development more adequately, we compose a global experience curve. First, underlying factors for past and potential future price reductions of wind turbines are analyzed. Also possible implications and pitfalls when applying the experience curve methodology are assessed. Second, we present and discuss a new approach of establishing a global experience curve and thus a global progress ratio for the investment cost of wind farms. Results show that global progress ratios for wind farms may lie between 77% and 85% (with an average of 81%), which is significantly more optimistic than progress ratios applied in most current scenario studies and integrated assessment models. While the findings are based on a limited amount of data, they may indicate faster price reduction opportunities than so far assumed. With this global experience curve we aim to improve the reliability of describing the speed with which global costs of wind power may decline

Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Vörösmarty, C J; Green, P; Salisbury, J; Lammers, R B

2000-07-14

The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing to a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question.

Structural Design Feasibility Study for the Global Climate Experiment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lewin,K.F.; Nagy, J.

2008-12-01

Neon, Inc. is proposing to establish a Global Change Experiment (GCE) Facility to increase our understanding of how ecological systems differ in their vulnerability to changes in climate and other relevant global change drivers, as well as provide the mechanistic basis for forecasting ecological change in the future. The experimental design was initially envisioned to consist of two complementary components; (A) a multi-factor experiment manipulating CO{sub 2}, temperature and water availability and (B) a water balance experiment. As the design analysis and cost estimates progressed, it became clear that (1) the technical difficulties of obtaining tight temperature control and maintaining elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels within an enclosure were greater than had been expected and (2) the envisioned study would not fit into the expected budget envelope if this was done in a partially or completely enclosed structure. After discussions between NEON management, the GCE science team, and Keith Lewin, NEON, Inc. requested Keith Lewin to expand the scope of this design study to include open-field exposure systems. In order to develop the GCE design to the point where it can be presented within a proposal for funding, a feasibility study of climate manipulation structures must be conducted to determine design approaches and rough cost estimates, and to identify advantages and disadvantages of these approaches including the associated experimental artifacts. NEON, Inc requested this design study in order to develop concepts for the climate manipulation structures to support the NEON Global Climate Experiment. This study summarizes the design concepts considered for constructing and operating the GCE Facility and their associated construction, maintenance and operations costs. Comparisons and comments about experimental artifacts, construction challenges and operational uncertainties are provided to assist in selecting the final facility design. The overall goal

FOREST ECOSYSTEMS AND GLOBAL CHANGE: THE CASE STUDY OF INSUBRIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Pautasso

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Forest ecosystems face multiple challenges due to climate change, invasive species, urbanization, land use change and the interactions between these global change drivers. This review provides an overview of such challenges for the case study of Insubria. Insubria is a region on the Southern side of the European Alps, famous for its stunning lakes (e.g., Como, Garda, Lugano, Maggiore, blessed by a relatively mild and humid climate, and shaped by the geologic fault line between the African and European plates. Global change impacts in Insubria pose a threat to its biodiversity and chestnut woodlands, particularly through modified winter forest fire regimes. Insubric biodiversity conservation, in turn, is essential to counteract the effects of climate change. Sustainable management of Insubric forests is made more difficult by rural abandonment, air pollution and invasive exotic species. There is a need to develop reliable long-term bio-indicators and to predict the shift of Insubric species, ecosystems and tree-lines due to rapid climate changes. Insubric studies on forests and global change call for enhanced international collaboration in forest management and research. Interdisciplinary approaches are needed to move from studies of single global change drivers to experiments, scenarios and models taking into account their combination and our responses to global change.

Global Deliberative Democracy and Climate Change: Insights from World Wide Views on Global Warming in Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chris Riedy

2011-12-01

Full Text Available On 26 September 2009, approximately 4,000 citizens in 38 countries participated in World Wide Views on Global Warming (WWViews. WWViews was an ambitious first attempt to convene a deliberative mini-public at a global scale, giving people from around the world an opportunity to deliberate on international climate policy and to make recommendations to the decision-makers meeting at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (COP-15 in December 2009. In this paper, we examine the role that deliberative mini-publics can play in facilitating the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response. We pursue this intent through a reflective evaluation of the Australian component of the World Wide Views on Global Warming project (WWViews. Our evaluation of WWViews is mixed. The Australian event was delivered with integrity and feedback from Australian participants was almost universally positive. Globally, WWViews demonstrated that it is feasible to convene a global mini-public to deliberate on issues of global relevance, such as climate change. On the other hand, the contribution of WWViews towards the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response was limited and it achieved little influence on global climate change policy. We identify lessons for future global mini-publics, including the need to prioritise the quality of deliberation and provide flexibility to respond to cultural and political contexts in different parts of the world. Future global mini-publics may be more influential if they seek to represent discourse diversity in addition to demographic profiles, use designs that maximise the potential for transmission from public to empowered space, run over longer time periods to build momentum for change and experiment with ways of bringing global citizens together in a single process instead of discrete national events.

GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #8: OUR CHANGING PLANET: THE FY2000 U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM

Science.gov (United States)

This edition of Global Change Research News focuses on the publication of the new OurChanging Planet: The FY2000 U.S. Global Change Research Program. This annual report to the Congress was prepared under the auspices ofthe President's National Science and Technology Council. It...

Global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levine, J.S.

1991-01-01

Present processes of global climate change are reviewed. The processes determining global temperature are briefly described and the concept of effective temperature is elucidated. The greenhouse effect is examined, including the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. 18 refs

Monte Carlo climate change forecasts with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cubasch, U.; Santer, B.D.; Hegerl, G.; Hoeck, H.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Mikolajwicz, U.; Stoessel, A.; Voss, R.

1992-01-01

The Monte Carlo approach, which has increasingly been used during the last decade in the field of extended range weather forecasting, has been applied for climate change experiments. Four integrations with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model have been started from different initial conditions, but with the same greenhouse gas forcing according to the IPCC scenario A. All experiments have been run for a period of 50 years. The results indicate that the time evolution of the global mean warming depends strongly on the initial state of the climate system. It can vary between 6 and 31 years. The Monte Carlo approach delivers information about both the mean response and the statistical significance of the response. While the individual members of the ensemble show a considerable variation in the climate change pattern of temperature after 50 years, the ensemble mean climate change pattern closely resembles the pattern obtained in a 100 year integration and is, at least over most of the land areas, statistically significant. The ensemble averaged sea-level change due to thermal expansion is significant in the global mean and locally over wide regions of the Pacific. The hydrological cycle is also significantly enhanced in the global mean, but locally the changes in precipitation and soil moisture are masked by the variability of the experiments. (orig.)

Space Observations for Global Change

Science.gov (United States)

Rasool, S. I.

1991-01-01

There is now compelling evidence that man's activities are changing both the composition of the atmospheric and the global landscape quite drastically. The consequences of these changes on the global climate of the 21st century is currently a hotly debated subject. Global models of a coupled Earth-ocean-atmosphere system are still very primitive and progress in this area appears largely data limited, specially over the global biosphere. A concerted effort on monitoring biospheric functions on scales from pixels to global and days to decades needs to be coordinated on an international scale in order to address the questions related to global change. An international program of space observations and ground research was described.

Biodiversity and global change. Adaptative responses to global change: results and prospective. IFB-GICC restitution colloquium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Despres, L.; Hossaert-Mckey, M.; Martin, J.F.; Pont, D.; Valero, M.; Chave, J.; Benizri, E.; Amiaud, B.; Boury-Esnault, N.; Fritz, H.; Lavelle, P.; Martin, F.; Poulet, S.; Blanchard, F.; Cheddadi, R.; Dupouey, J.L.; Hulle, M.; Michaux, J.; Souissi, S.; Bridault, A.; Dambrine, E.; Gomez, B.; Thevenard, F.; Legendre, S.; Suc, J.P.; Zeitoun, V.; Bezancon, G.; Frascaria-Lacoste, N.; Ponsard, S.; Bourguet, D.; Vigne, J.D.; Doyen, L.; Joly, P.; Gourlet-Fleury, S.; Garnier, E.; Lebaron, Ph.; Boulinier, Th.; Chuine, I.; Jiguet, F.; Couvet, D.; Soussana, J.F.; Weimerskirsch, H.; Grosbois, V.; Bretagnolle, V.

2006-01-01

Global change is the consequence of the worldwide human print on ecology. The uncontrolled use of fossil fuels, the urbanization, the intensifying of agriculture, the homogenization of life styles and cultures, the homogenization of fauna and vegetation, the commercial trades, the bio-invasions, the over-exploitation of resources and the emergence of new economic powers (China, India, Brazil..) represent an adaptative dynamics of interactions which affects the overall biosphere and the adaptative capacities and the future of all species. Biodiversity is an ecological and societal insurance against the risks and uncertainties linked with global change. The French institute of biodiversity (IFB) has created a working group in charge of a study on global change and biodiversity, in particular in terms of: speed and acceleration of processes, interaction between the different organization levels of the world of living, scale changes, and adaptative capacities. 38 projects with an interdisciplinary approach have been retained by the IFB and the Ministry of ecology and sustainable development. The conclusion of these projects were presented at this restitution colloquium and are summarized in this document. The presentations are organized in 7 sessions dealing with: global changes and adaptation mechanisms; functional responses to global changes; spatial responses to global changes; temporal responses to global changes; selective answers to global changes; available tools and ecological services; scenarios and projections. (J.S.)

Global change and Canadians: A teacher's guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

A report called Global Change and Canadians has been produced by the Royal Society of Canada to answer basic questions being asked about global change issues. A teacher's guide is presented to help teachers make effective use of the report in developing programs with students concerning global change. A basic set of teaching and learning activities related to the major topics in the report is provided, curricular connections between global change topics and school programs are suggested, and some additional resources on global change are listed. The guide is divided into six chapters, each corresponding to the chapters of the global change report. Each chapter contains a summary of the major concepts from the report, some of the learning outcomes that occur when those concepts are addressed, a series of suggested activities or ideas, and a guide for assessing students' abilities relative to the concepts of the chapter. The topics of the chapters cover the nature of global change, the importance of global change to Canada, the causes of global change, the consequences of global change (including climate change and the greenhouse effect), the effects of global change on society, and Canadian responses to global change. 64 refs., 3 figs

Phylogenetic responses of forest trees to global change.

Science.gov (United States)

Senior, John K; Schweitzer, Jennifer A; O'Reilly-Wapstra, Julianne; Chapman, Samantha K; Steane, Dorothy; Langley, Adam; Bailey, Joseph K

2013-01-01

In a rapidly changing biosphere, approaches to understanding the ecology and evolution of forest species will be critical to predict and mitigate the effects of anthropogenic global change on forest ecosystems. Utilizing 26 forest species in a factorial experiment with two levels each of atmospheric CO2 and soil nitrogen, we examined the hypothesis that phylogeny would influence plant performance in response to elevated CO2 and nitrogen fertilization. We found highly idiosyncratic responses at the species level. However, significant, among-genetic lineage responses were present across a molecularly determined phylogeny, indicating that past evolutionary history may have an important role in the response of whole genetic lineages to future global change. These data imply that some genetic lineages will perform well and that others will not, depending upon the environmental context.

Laurel Clark Earth Camp: A Program for Teachers and Students to Explore Their World and Study Global Change Through Field-Experience and Satellite Images

Science.gov (United States)

Buxner, S.; Orchard, A.; Colodner, D.; Schwartz, K.; Crown, D. A.; King, B.; Baldridge, A.

2012-03-01

The Laurel Clark Earth Camp program provides middle and high school students and teachers opportunities to explore local environmental issues and global change through field-experiences, inquiry exercises, and exploring satellite images.

Conceptual Change regarding middle school students' experience with Global Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Golden, B. W.; Lutz, B.

2011-12-01

Given the complexity of the science involving climate change (IPCC, 2007), its lack of curricular focus within US K-12 schooling (Golden, 2009), and the difficulty in effecting conceptual change in science (Vosniadou, 2007), we sought to research middle school students' conceptions about climate change, in addition to how those conceptions changed during and as a result of a deliberately designed global climate change (GCC) unit. In a sixth grade classroom, a unit was designed which incorporated Argumentation-Driven Inquiry (Sampson & Grooms, 2010). That is, students were assigned to groups and asked to make sense of standard GCC data such as paleoclimate data from ice cores, direct temperature measurement, and Keeling curves, in addition to learning about the greenhouse effect in a modeling lesson (Hocking, et al, 1993). The students were then challenged, in groups, to create, on whiteboards, explanations and defend these explanations to and with their peers. They did two iterations of this argumentation. The first iteration focused on the simple identification of climate change patterns. The second focused on developing causal explanations for those patterns. After two rounds of such argumentation, the students were then asked to write (individually) a "final" argument which accounted for the given data. Interview and written data were analyzed prior to the given unit, during it, and after it, in order to capture complicated nuance that might escape detection by simpler research means such as surveys. Several findings emerged which promised to be of interest to climate change educators. The first is that many students tended to "know" many "facts" about climate change, but were unable to connect these disparate facts in any meaningful ways. A second finding is that while no students changed their entire belief systems, even after a robust unit which would seemingly challenge such, each student engaged did indeed modify the manner in which they discussed the

Agile Data Management with the Global Change Information System

Science.gov (United States)

Duggan, B.; Aulenbach, S.; Tilmes, C.; Goldstein, J.

2013-12-01

We describe experiences applying agile software development techniques to the realm of data management during the development of the Global Change Information System (GCIS), a web service and API for authoritative global change information under development by the US Global Change Research Program. Some of the challenges during system design and implementation have been : (1) balancing the need for a rigorous mechanism for ensuring information quality with the realities of large data sets whose contents are often in flux, (2) utilizing existing data to inform decisions about the scope and nature of new data, and (3) continuously incorporating new knowledge and concepts into a relational data model. The workflow for managing the content of the system has much in common with the development of the system itself. We examine various aspects of agile software development and discuss whether or how we have been able to use them for data curation as well as software development.

Climate and Global Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duplessy, J.C.; Pons, A.; Fantechi, R.

1991-01-01

The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)

GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #37: PUBLICATION OF "OUR CHANGING PLANET: THE FY 2002 U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM"

Science.gov (United States)

The EPA Global Change Research Program is pleased to inform you of the publication of the new Our Changing Planet: The FY 2002 U.S. Global Change Research Program. This annual report to the Congress was prepared under the auspices of the Committee on Environment and Natural Reso...

Mentoring health researchers globally: Diverse experiences, programmes, challenges and responses.

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, Donald C; Johnson, Nancy; Mejia, Raul; McCullough, Hazel; Turcotte-Tremblay, Anne-Marie; Barnoya, Joaquin; Falabella Luco, María Soledad

2016-10-01

Mentoring experiences and programmes are becoming increasingly recognised as important by those engaged in capacity strengthening in global health research. Using a primarily qualitative study design, we studied three experiences of mentorship and eight mentorship programmes for early career global health researchers based in high-income and low- and middle-income countries. For the latter, we drew upon programme materials, existing unpublished data and more formal mixed-method evaluations, supplemented by individual email questionnaire responses. Research team members wrote stories, and the team assembled and analysed them for key themes. Across the diverse experiences and programmes, key emergent themes included: great mentors inspire others in an inter-generational cascade, mentorship is transformative in personal and professional development and involves reciprocity, and finding the right balance in mentoring relationships and programmes includes responding creatively to failure. Among the challenges encountered were: struggling for more level playing fields for new health researchers globally, changing mindsets in institutions that do not have a culture of mentorship and building collaboration not competition. Mentoring networks spanning institutions and countries using multiple virtual and face-to-face methods are a potential avenue for fostering organisational cultures supporting quality mentorship in global health research.

Peak globalization. Climate change, oil depletion and global trade

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Curtis, Fred [Department of Economics, Drew University, Madison, NJ 07940 (United States)

2009-12-15

The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed. (author)

Peak globalization. Climate change, oil depletion and global trade

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Curtis, Fred

2009-01-01

The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed. (author)

Global change and the evolution of phenotypic plasticity in plants.

Science.gov (United States)

Matesanz, Silvia; Gianoli, Ernesto; Valladares, Fernando

2010-09-01

Global change drivers create new environmental scenarios and selective pressures, affecting plant species in various interacting ways. Plants respond with changes in phenology, physiology, and reproduction, with consequences for biotic interactions and community composition. We review information on phenotypic plasticity, a primary means by which plants cope with global change scenarios, recommending promising approaches for investigating the evolution of plasticity and describing constraints to its evolution. We discuss the important but largely ignored role of phenotypic plasticity in range shifts and review the extensive literature on invasive species as models of evolutionary change in novel environments. Plasticity can play a role both in the short-term response of plant populations to global change as well as in their long-term fate through the maintenance of genetic variation. In new environmental conditions, plasticity of certain functional traits may be beneficial (i.e., the plastic response is accompanied by a fitness advantage) and thus selected for. Plasticity can also be relevant in the establishment and persistence of plants in novel environments that are crucial for populations at the colonizing edge in range shifts induced by climate change. Experimental studies show taxonomically widespread plastic responses to global change drivers in many functional traits, though there is a lack of empirical support for many theoretical models on the evolution of phenotypic plasticity. Future studies should assess the adaptive value and evolutionary potential of plasticity under complex, realistic global change scenarios. Promising tools include resurrection protocols and artificial selection experiments. © 2010 New York Academy of Sciences.

Data Synthesis and Data Assimilation at Global Change Experiments and Fluxnet Toward Improving Land Process Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luo, Yiqi [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States). Dept. of Microbiology and Plant Biology

2017-09-12

The project was conducted during the period from 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2017 with three major tasks: (1) data synthesis and development of data assimilation (DA) techniques to constrain modeled ecosystem feedback to climate change; (2) applications of DA techniques to improve process models at different scales from ecosystem to regions and the globe; and 3) improvements of modeling soil carbon (C) dynamics by land surface models. During this period, we have synthesized published data from soil incubation experiments (e.g., Chen et al., 2016; Xu et al., 2016; Feng et al., 2016), global change experiments (e.g., Li et al., 2013; Shi et al., 2015, 2016; Liang et al., 2016) and fluxnet (e.g., Niu et al., 2012., Xia et al., 2015; Li et al., 2016). These data have been organized into multiple data products and have been used to identify general mechanisms and estimate parameters for model improvement. We used the data sets that we collected and the DA techniques to improve model performance of both ecosystem models and global land models. The objectives are: 1) to improve model simulations of litter and soil carbon storage (e.g., Schädel et al., 2013; Hararuk and Luo, 2014; Hararuk et al., 2014; Liang et al., 2015); 2) to explore the effects of CO₂, warming and precipitation on ecosystem processes (e.g., van Groenigen et al., 2014; Shi et al., 2015, 2016; Feng et al., 2017); and 3) to estimate parameters variability in different ecosystems (e.g., Li et al., 2016). We developed a traceability framework, which was based on matrix approaches and decomposed the modeled steady-state terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage capacity into four can trace the difference in ecosystem carbon storage capacity among different biomes to four traceable components: net primary productivity (NPP), baseline C residence times, environmental scalars and climate forcing (Xia et al., 2013). With this framework, we can diagnose the differences in modeled carbon storage across ecosystems

Climate change - global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciconkov, Risto

2001-01-01

An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

Lifestyles and Global Land-use Change

OpenAIRE

Heilig, G.K.

1995-01-01

One of the most influential publications on land-use change is a small booklet, published by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme (HDP). It was written -- as its subtitle says -- as a "proposal for an IGBP-HDP Core Project" on "Relating Land Use and Global Land-Cover Change". The booklet can be seen as some kind of programmatic statement to guide international collaborative research on global land-use change. ...

Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

Use of satellite erythemal UV products in analysing the global UV changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Ialongo

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Long term changes in solar UV radiation affect global bio-geochemistry and climate. The satellite-based dataset of TOMS (Total Ozone Monitoring System and OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument of erythemal UV product was applied for the first time to estimate the long-term ultraviolet (UV changes at the global scale. The analysis of the uncertainty related to the different input information is presented. OMI and GOME-2 (Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 products were compared in order to analyse the differences in the global UV distribution and their effect on the linear trend estimation.

The results showed that the differences in the inputs (mainly surface albedo and aerosol information used in the retrieval, affect significantly the UV change calculation, pointing out the importance of using a consistent dataset when calculating long term UV changes. The areas where these differences played a major role were identified using global maps of monthly UV changes. Despite the uncertainties, significant positive UV changes (ranging from 0 to about 5 %/decade were observed, with higher values in the Southern Hemisphere at mid-latitudes during spring-summer, where the largest ozone decrease was observed.

Asia's changing role in global climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Siddiqi, Toufiq A

2008-10-01

Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI)

Data.gov (United States)

Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) is dedicated to understanding the problems of global climate change and their potential solutions. The Institute...

Future ecological studies of Brazilian headwater streams under global-changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcos Callisto

Full Text Available This paper results from discussions triggered during the "Stream Ecology Symposium" that took place at the XIII Congress of the Brazilian Society of Limnology in September of 2011 in Natal, Brazil. Based on our experiences, we have raised several questions regarding ecological studies of headwater streams facing threats under global-changes and proposed numerous subjects to be addressed in future studies in Brazil. These studies deal with the necessity of knowing species biology and the elaboration of models to assess changes (which implies the availability of time-series or large-scale data sets; the ecology of riparian zones and the interchange of materials and energy across the land-water boundaries; forest conversions and standardized sampling strategies and data treatment to assess global change.

Global change research: Science and policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rayner, S.

1993-05-01

This report characterizes certain aspects of the Global Change Research Program of the US Government, and its relevance to the short and medium term needs of policy makers in the public and private sectors. It addresses some of the difficulties inherent in the science and policy interface on the issues of global change. Finally, this report offers some proposals for improving the science for policy process in the context of global environmental change

Exploring Global Change In Place-Based Case Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Moosavi, S. C.

2011-12-01

The complexity of global climate change makes the subject challenging for the average student, particularly given the nuanced feedbacks and exceptions to the general "warming" or "drying" trend that may be experienced at the local and regional level at which most people experience geologic processes. Geoscience educators can reduce these barriers and draw in student learners by adopting a place-based approach to teaching and researching geologic principles that relate to global change. Assisting students in recognizing and understanding the geologic environment in which they live and study has the side benefit of making the potential effect of climate change tangible. This presentation will review several approaches for using place-based case studies to explore global climate change issues in large lecture, small seminar, field research and service learning environments. The special place project used in large introductory physical geology courses requires each student to select a place familiar and unique to them for an in depth study of the common course content as the semester progresses. Students are specifically tasked with identifying how their site came to be, the geologic processes that act upon it today, how the site may have been different during the last glacial advance and how global climate change (specifically warming of 3OC over 50 years) might impact the site. The concept that change has occurred at the student's site in the past, even far from glacial environments, opens students to the scale of potential anthropogenic climate change. A freshman seminar Global Warming & Climate Change - Service in Preparation for Climate Change: The Second Battle of New Orleans focused on the environmental threats to New Orleans and southeastern Louisiana resulting from regional land use decisions in the centuries before Hurricane Katrina, and the threat that global change relating to sea level rise, acceleration of the hydrologic cycle and intensification of

Global warming and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-10-01

A panel discussion was held to discuss climate change. Six panelists made presentations that summarized ozone depletion and climate change, discussed global responses, argued against the conventional scientific and policy dogmas concerning climate change, examined the effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton, examined the effects of carbon taxes on Canadian industry and its emissions, and examined the political and strategic aspects of global warming. A question session followed the presentations. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the six presentations

Pathways of understanding: The interactions of humanity and global environmental change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacobson, H.K.; Katzenberger, J.; Lousma, J.; Mooney, H.A.; Moss, R.H.; Kuhn, W.; Luterbacher, U.; Wiegandt, E.

1992-01-01

How humans, interacting within social systems, affect and are affected by global change is explored. Recognizing the impact human activities have on the environment and responding to the need to document the interactions among human activities, the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) commissioned a group of 12 scientists to develop a framework illustrating the key human systems that contribute to global change. This framework, called the Social Process Diagram, will help natural and social scientists, educators, resource managers and policy makers envision and analyze how human systems interact among themselves and with the natural system. The Social Process Diagram consists of the following blocks that constitute the Diagram's structural framework: (1) fund of knowledge and experience; (2) preferences and expectations; (3) factors of production and technology; (4) population and social structure; (5) economic systems; (6) political systems and institutions; and (7) global scale environmental processes. To demonstrate potential ways the Diagram can be used, this document includes 3 hypothetical scenarios of global change issues: global warming and sea level rise; the environmental impact of human population migration; and energy and the environment. These scenarios demonstrate the Diagram's usefulness for visualizing specific processes that might be studied to evaluate a particular global change issues. The scenario also shows that interesting and unanticipated questions may emerge as links are explored between categories on the Diagram

Pathways of Understanding: the Interactions of Humanity and Global Environmental Change

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobson, Harold K.; Katzenberger, John; Lousma, Jack; Mooney, Harold A.; Moss, Richard H.; Kuhn, William; Luterbacher, Urs; Wiegandt, Ellen

1992-01-01

How humans, interacting within social systems, affect and are affected by global change is explored. Recognizing the impact human activities have on the environment and responding to the need to document the interactions among human activities, the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) commissioned a group of 12 scientists to develop a framework illustrating the key human systems that contribute to global change. This framework, called the Social Process Diagram, will help natural and social scientists, educators, resource managers and policy makers envision and analyze how human systems interact among themselves and with the natural system. The Social Process Diagram consists of the following blocks that constitute the Diagram's structural framework: (1) fund of knowledge and experience; (2) preferences and expectations; (3) factors of production and technology; (4) population and social structure; (5) economic systems; (6) political systems and institutions; and (7) global scale environmental processes. To demonstrate potential ways the Diagram can be used, this document includes 3 hypothetical scenarios of global change issues: global warming and sea level rise; the environmental impact of human population migration; and energy and the environment. These scenarios demonstrate the Diagram's usefulness for visualizing specific processes that might be studied to evaluate a particular global change issues. The scenario also shows that interesting and unanticipated questions may emerge as links are explored between categories on the Diagram.

The Governance of Climate Change Adaptation Through Urban Policy Experiments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chu, E.K.

2016-01-01

Climate change is increasingly posing risks to infrastructure and public services in cities across the global South. Building on ideas of policy experimentation at the nexus of institutional and transition theories, this paper assesses six climate change adaptation experiments across the cities of

Global change of the climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moharam-nejad, Naser.

1995-01-01

Greenhouse effect is defined. greenhouse gases which are capable to produce greenhouse effect is mentioned. The production of greenhouse effects depends on the following factors; The amount of discharge to the atmosphere, Concentration, Life span, stability, Absorption and Emission. The effect of global change of climate on agriculture and living organisms is discussed. Global actions related to climate change and national procedures are described. The aim of climate change convention is given and the important points of convention is also mentioned

Terrestrial Ecosystem Responses to Global Change: A Research Strategy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ecosystems Working Group,

1998-09-23

Uncertainty about the magnitude of global change effects on terrestrial ecosystems and consequent feedbacks to the atmosphere impedes sound policy planning at regional, national, and global scales. A strategy to reduce these uncertainties must include a substantial increase in funding for large-scale ecosystem experiments and a careful prioritization of research efforts. Prioritization criteria should be based on the magnitude of potential changes in environmental properties of concern to society, including productivity; biodiversity; the storage and cycling of carbon, water, and nutrients; and sensitivity of specific ecosystems to environmental change. A research strategy is proposed that builds on existing knowledge of ecosystem responses to global change by (1) expanding the spatial and temporal scale of experimental ecosystem manipulations to include processes known to occur at large scales and over long time periods; (2) quantifying poorly understood linkages among processes through the use of experiments that manipulate multiple interacting environmental factors over a broader range of relevant conditions than did past experiments; and (3) prioritizing ecosystems for major experimental manipulations on the basis of potential positive and negative impacts on ecosystem properties and processes of intrinsic and/or utilitarian value to humans and on feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere. Models and experiments are equally important for developing process-level understanding into a predictive capability. To support both the development and testing of mechanistic ecosystem models, a two-tiered design of ecosystem experiments should be used. This design should include both (1) large-scale manipulative experiments for comprehensive testing of integrated ecosystem models and (2) multifactor, multilevel experiments for parameterization of process models across the critical range of interacting environmental factors (CO{sub 2}, temperature, water

National inventory of Global Change relevant research in Norway; Nasjonal kartlegging av global change-relevant forskning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2001-05-01

The Norwegian Global Change Committee has made an inventory of global change research (GCR) projects funded by the Research Council of Norway (RCN) in 2001. In lack of a rigid definition, GCR was defined as research that can be considered relevant to the science agenda of the four major international global change programmes DIVERSITAS, IGBP, IHDP and WCRP. Relevance was judged based on the objectives stated for each of the international programmes and their core projects. It was not attempted to check whether the projects had any kind of link to the programmes they were considered relevant for. The grants provided by the RCN in 2001 to GCR as defined above amounts to about 77 mill. NOK. Based on a recent survey on climate change research it is reasonable to estimate that the RCN finances between 30 and 40 % of all GCR in Norway. Accordingly, the total value of Norwegian research relevant to the four international global change programmes in 2001 can be estimated to 192 - 254 mill. NOK.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

2012-09-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

2013-04-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. B. B. Booth

2013-04-01

Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high

Change Agents and Collective Experience-Making as Part of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

agents can enable and facilitate collective learning about climate change, as well ... interconnected global problems, meaning that efforts to reduce and adapt to ..... 'acquisition of mediated experiences in the learning rhythm of the immediate ...

Global monopoles can change Universe's topology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marunović, Anja; Prokopec, Tomislav

2016-01-01

If the Universe undergoes a phase transition, at which global monopoles are created or destroyed, topology of its spatial sections can change. More specifically, by making use of Myers' theorem, we show that, after a transition in which global monopoles form, spatial sections of a spatially flat, infinite Universe becomes finite and closed. This implies that global monopoles can change the topology of Universe's spatial sections (from infinite and open to finite and closed). Global monopoles cannot alter the topology of the space-time manifold.

Dynamics of energy technologies and global change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grubler, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Victor, D.G.

1999-01-01

Technological choices largely determine the long-term characteristics of industrial society, including impacts on the natural environment. However, the treatment of technology in existing models that are used to project economic and environmental futures remains highly stylized. Based on work over two decades at IIASA, we present a useful typology for technology analysis and discuss methods that can be used to analyze the impact of technological changes on the global environment, especially global warming. Our focus is energy technologies, the main source of many atmospheric environmental problems. We show that much improved treatment of technology is possible with a combination of historical analysis and new modeling techniques. In the historical record, we identify characteristic 'learning rates' that allow simple quantified characterization of the improvement in cost and performance due to cumulative experience and investments. We also identify patterns, processes and timescales that typify the diffusion of new technologies in competitive markets. Technologies that are long-lived and are components of interlocking networks typically require the longest time to diffuse and co-evolve with other technologies in the network; such network effects yield high barriers to entry even for superior competitors. These simple observations allow three improvements to modeling of technological change and its consequences for global environmental change. One is that the replacement of long-lived infrastructures over time has also replaced the fuels that power the economy to yield progressively more energy per unit of carbon pollution - from coal to oil to gas. Such replacement has 'decarbonized' the global primary energy supply 0.3% per year. In contrast, most baseline projections for emissions of carbon, the chief cause of global warming, ignore this robust historical trend and show Iittle or no decarbonization. A second improvement is that by incorporating learning curves and

The NASA Global Climate Change Education Project: An Integrated Effort to Improve the Teaching and Learning about Climate Change (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Chambers, L. H.; Pippin, M. R.; Welch, S.; Spruill, K.; Matthews, M. J.; Person, C.

2010-12-01

The NASA Global Climate Change Education (GCCE) Project, initiated in 2008, seeks to: - improve the teaching and learning about global climate change in elementary and secondary schools, on college campuses, and through lifelong learning; - increase the number of people, particularly high school and undergraduate students, using NASA Earth observation data, Earth system models, and/or simulations to investigate and analyze global climate change issues; - increase the number of undergraduate students prepared for employment and/or to enter graduate school in technical fields relevant to global climate change. Through an annual solicitation, proposals are requested for projects that address these goals using a variety of approaches. These include using NASA Earth system data, interactive models and/or simulations; providing research experiences for undergraduate or community college students, or for pre- or in-service teachers; or creating long-term teacher professional development experiences. To date, 57 projects have been funded to pursue these goals (22 in 2008, 18 in 2009, and 17 in 2010), each for a 2-3 year period. The vast majority of awards address either teacher professional development, or use of data, models, or simulations; only 7 awards have been made for research experiences. NASA, with assistance from the Virginia Space Grant Consortium, is working to develop these awardees into a synergistic community that works together to maximize its impact. This paper will present examples of collaborations that are evolving within this developing community. It will also introduce the opportunities available in fiscal year 2011, when a change in emphasis is expected for the project as it moves within the NASA Office of Education Minority University Research and Education Program (MUREP).

Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Continental-scale International Project (GCIP)

Science.gov (United States)

Vane, Deborah

1993-01-01

A discussion of the objectives of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Continental-scale International Project (GCIP) is presented in vugraph form. The objectives of GEWEX are as follows: determine the hydrological cycle by global measurements; model the global hydrological cycle; improve observations and data assimilation; and predict response to environmental change. The objectives of GCIP are as follows: determine the time/space variability of the hydrological cycle over a continental-scale region; develop macro-scale hydrologic models that are coupled to atmospheric models; develop information retrieval schemes; and support regional climate change impact assessment.

Uncertainty and global climate change research

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tonn, B.E. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Weiher, R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO (United States)

1994-06-01

The Workshop on Uncertainty and Global Climate Change Research March 22--23, 1994, in Knoxville, Tennessee. This report summarizes the results and recommendations of the workshop. The purpose of the workshop was to examine in-depth the concept of uncertainty. From an analytical point of view, uncertainty is a central feature of global climate science, economics and decision making. The magnitude and complexity of uncertainty surrounding global climate change has made it quite difficult to answer even the most simple and important of questions-whether potentially costly action is required now to ameliorate adverse consequences of global climate change or whether delay is warranted to gain better information to reduce uncertainties. A major conclusion of the workshop is that multidisciplinary integrated assessments using decision analytic techniques as a foundation is key to addressing global change policy concerns. First, uncertainty must be dealt with explicitly and rigorously since it is and will continue to be a key feature of analysis and recommendations on policy questions for years to come. Second, key policy questions and variables need to be explicitly identified, prioritized, and their uncertainty characterized to guide the entire scientific, modeling, and policy analysis process. Multidisciplinary integrated assessment techniques and value of information methodologies are best suited for this task. In terms of timeliness and relevance of developing and applying decision analytic techniques, the global change research and policy communities are moving rapidly toward integrated approaches to research design and policy analysis.

M-Commerce: Global Experiences and Perspectives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dholakia, Nikhilesh; Rask, Morten; Dholakia, Ruby

-Pacific - and highlights several countries from each region. These countries are significant because of their large existing base of mobile telecom users, their future potential, their innovativeness in mobile telecom technology development, and their leadership in launching new mobile applications. M-Commerce: Global...... Experiences and Perspectives contains chapters from authors of many countries, and while each chapter examines a specific country in-depth, all the chapters use a common integrative framework called the CLIP (communications, locatability, information provision, and payment processing) application......M-Commerce: Global Experiences and Perspectives focuses on the emerging growth of mobile telecommunications and mobile commerce around the world. To provide a global perspective, this book describes approaches from three major regions of the world - North America, Europe, and Asia...

Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change · Climate Change: Generic Implications for Agriculture · Controlled environment facilities at IARI used for evaluating model performance in future climate change scenarios · Slide 4 · Slide 5 · Global studies indicate considerable impact of climate change in tropics.

How Will Climate Change Affect Globalization?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dilyard, John Raymond; Bals, Lydia; Zhuplev, Anatoly

2011-01-01

, it will effect globalization. Businesses, if they want to be sustained, will have to adjust to climate change. This panel will examine two topics within which the relationship between climate change and globalization can be assessed - the sourcing of resources and services when the location of those resources...... is subject to change and the nature of competition in agriculture-based business, focusing on wine....

Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Prudhomme, C.; Giuntoli, L.; Robinson, E.L.; Clark, D.B.; Arnell, N.W.; Dankers, R.; Fekete, B.M.; Franssen, W.H.P.

2014-01-01

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models

Nitrogen transformations in response to temperature and rainfall manipulation in oak savanna: A global change experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Wellman, R. L.; Boutton, T. W.; Tjoelker, M. G.; Volder, A.; Briske, D. D.

2013-12-01

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are projected to elevate global surface air temperatures by 1.1 to 6.4°C by the end of the century, and potentially magnify the intensity and variability of seasonal precipitation distribution. The mid-latitude grasslands of North America are predicted to experience substantial modification in precipitation regimes, with a shift towards drier summers and wetter spring and fall seasons. Despite these predictions, little is known concerning the effects of these global climate change drivers or their potential interactive effects on nitrogen (N) cycling processes. The purpose of this study is to quantify seasonal variation in rates of N-mineralization, nitrification, and N-losses via leaching in soil subjected to experimental warming and rainfall manipulation. Research was conducted at the Texas A&M Warming and Rainfall Manipulation (WaRM) Site in College Station where eight 9x18m rainout shelters and two unsheltered controls were established in post oak savanna in 2003. Replicate annual rainfall redistribution treatments (n = 4) are applied at the shelter level (long term mean vs. 40% of summer redistributed to fall and spring with same annual total). Warming treatments (ambient vs. 24-hr IR canopy warming of 1-3°C) were applied to planted monocultures of juniper and little bluestem, and a juniper-grass combination. Both juniper and little bluestem are key species within the post oak savanna region. Plots were sampled from the full factorial design during years six and seven of the WaRM experiment. Soil N-mineralization, nitrification, and N-losses via leaching were assessed quarterly for two years using the resin core incubation method. Rainfall, species composition, and time interacted significantly to influence both ammonification and nitrification. Highest rates of ammonification (0.115 mg NH4+ -N/ kg soil/day) occurred in grass monocultures during summer in the control rainfall plots, whereas highest rates of

Information technology and global change science

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baxter, F.P.

1990-01-01

The goal of this paper is to identify and briefly describe major existing and near term information technologies that cold have a positive impact on the topics being discussed at this conference by helping to manage the data of global change science and helping global change scientists conduct their research. Desktop computer systems have changed dramatically during the past seven years. Faster data processing can be expected in the future through full development of traditional serial computer architectures. Some other proven information technologies may be currently underutilized by global change scientists. Relational database management systems and good organization of data through the use of thoughtful database design would enable the scientific community to better share and maintain quality research data. Custodians of the data should use rigorous data administration to ensure integrity and long term value of the data resource. Still other emerging information technologies that involve the use of artificial intelligence, parallel computer architectures, and new sensors for data collection will be in relatively common use in the near term and should become part of the global science community's technical toolkit. Consideration should also be given to the establishment of Information Analysis Centers to facilitate effective organization and management of interdisciplinary data and the prototype testing and use of advanced information technology to facilitate rapid and cost-effective integration of these tools into global change science. 8 refs.

Predicting the Responses of Soil Nitrite-Oxidizers to Multi-Factorial Global Change: A Trait-Based Approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Le Roux, Xavier; Bouskill, Nicholas J.; Niboyet, Audrey

2016-01-01

Soil microbial diversity is huge and a few grams of soil contain more bacterial taxa than there are bird species on Earth. This high diversity often makes predicting the responses of soil bacteria to environmental change intractable and restricts our capacity to predict the responses of soil...... functions to global change. Here, using a long-term field experiment in a California grassland, we studied the main and interactive effects of three global change factors (increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, precipitation and nitrogen addition, and all their factorial combinations, based on global...

Biodiversity and global change. Adaptative responses to global change: results and prospective. IFB-GICC restitution colloquium; Biodiversite et changement global. Reponses adaptatives au changement global: resultats et prospective. Colloque de restitution IFB-GICC

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Despres, L; Hossaert-Mckey, M; Martin, J F; Pont, D; Valero, M; Chave, J; Benizri, E; Amiaud, B; Boury-Esnault, N; Fritz, H; Lavelle, P; Martin, F; Poulet, S; Blanchard, F; Cheddadi, R; Dupouey, J L; Hulle, M; Michaux, J; Souissi, S; Bridault, A; Dambrine, E; Gomez, B; Thevenard, F; Legendre, S; Suc, J P; Zeitoun, V; Bezancon, G; Frascaria-Lacoste, N; Ponsard, S; Bourguet, D; Vigne, J D; Doyen, L; Joly, P; Gourlet-Fleury, S; Garnier, E; Lebaron, Ph; Boulinier, Th; Chuine, I; Jiguet, F; Couvet, D; Soussana, J F; Weimerskirsch, H; Grosbois, V; Bretagnolle, V

2006-07-01

Global change is the consequence of the worldwide human print on ecology. The uncontrolled use of fossil fuels, the urbanization, the intensifying of agriculture, the homogenization of life styles and cultures, the homogenization of fauna and vegetation, the commercial trades, the bio-invasions, the over-exploitation of resources and the emergence of new economic powers (China, India, Brazil..) represent an adaptative dynamics of interactions which affects the overall biosphere and the adaptative capacities and the future of all species. Biodiversity is an ecological and societal insurance against the risks and uncertainties linked with global change. The French institute of biodiversity (IFB) has created a working group in charge of a study on global change and biodiversity, in particular in terms of: speed and acceleration of processes, interaction between the different organization levels of the world of living, scale changes, and adaptative capacities. 38 projects with an interdisciplinary approach have been retained by the IFB and the Ministry of ecology and sustainable development. The conclusion of these projects were presented at this restitution colloquium and are summarized in this document. The presentations are organized in 7 sessions dealing with: global changes and adaptation mechanisms; functional responses to global changes; spatial responses to global changes; temporal responses to global changes; selective answers to global changes; available tools and ecological services; scenarios and projections. (J.S.)

Microenvironmental change as a mechanism to study global change.

Science.gov (United States)

Lortie, C. J.

2016-12-01

Global change is a set of significant processes that influence all aspects of ecosystem functioning and often-natural services within Santa Barbara County. The sensitivity of coastal and urban systems is certainly very high. However, profound changes are also predicted for arid and semi-arid systems globally, and California is no exception. These dryland systems are less buffered by oceanic processes and typically express high inter-annual variation in precipitation and temperatures in addition to perturbations associated with long-term droughts. However, climate estimates and downscaled values can present challenges in providing evidence at the scale relevant to individual species or individuals, and the importance of biotic interactions must be coupled to these estimates in space and time. Coupled indicators of key micro-environmental measures to both positive and negative interactions between foundation species and other organisms provide a metric of buffering capacity and resilience to global change at fine spatial scales. Consequently, the primary objective of this research project is to provide both the a well-articulated, ecologically relevant micro-environmental big data measure of global change within Santa Barbara County and a coupled estimate of concurrent changes in interactions in key species within the region. Shrubs directly and indirectly buffered local changes in the microenvironment thereby functioning as refuges for other species within arid and semi-arid regions subject to dramatic global change drivers. The following major patterns were identified: (i) shrub micro-environments reduce the level of stress and amplitude of variation associated with temperature and moisture, (ii) many plant and animal species including threatened lizards are relatively more common with shrubs within the region, and (iii) the variation in the interaction patterns between species relates to the extent of amelioration provided by shrub-biodiversity complexes within

Impact of Environmental Changes and Global Warming on Temperature in Pakistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ishtiaq Hassan

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Environmental changes and global warming have direct impact on human life. Estimation of these changes in various parameters of hydrologic cycle is necessary for future planning and development of a country. In this paper the impact of environmental changes and global warming on temperatures of Pakistan has been studied. The temperature changes in Pakistan have been extracted from simulations made using EdGCM model developed at Columbia University. Simulation study to the end of 21st century is executed using the model for GHG (Greenhouse Gases scenario with doubled_CO2 and scenario of Modern_Predicted SST (Sea Surface Temperature. The model analysis has been carried out for seasonal and annual changes for an average of last 5 years period from 2096-2100. Maps are generated to depict global temperature variations. The study divides Pakistan into five (05 main areas for twenty six (26 stations. A part-plan of globe focusing Pakistan is generated showing the five divisions for twenty six (26 data stations of Pakistan. This part plan is made compatible with grid-box resolution of EdGCM. Eagle-Point Engineering software has been used to generate isohyets of interval (0.5oC for downscaling GCM (Global Climate Model grid data to data stations. The station values of different seasons and annual changes are then compared with the values of base period data to determine changes in temperature. It is observed that impact of global environmental changes on temperature are higher (i.e. there is an increase in annual temperature for double_CO2 experiment at places near the Arabian Sea than areas located away from this sea. It is also observed that the temperature increase will be more in winter than that in other seasons for Pakistan.

A global change policy for Alaska

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cole, H.

1993-01-01

The Alaska Science and Engineering Advisory Committee attempted to formulate a suitable state policy for global climate change. The main elements and rationale for this policy are described, along with lessons learned from the Montreal protocol on global ozone and the policy itself. A discussion of issues relating to public presentation and reaction to a climate change policy indicates that elements necessary for a strategy presenting a case for global change needs to be credible, simple, and unambiguous, with risks clearly defined. Society and business must see themselves as stakeholders in the issue, and policies must be formulated accordingly. The Montreal protocol provides an example of success in advanced planning on a major global issue. The six main components of the Alaskan policy relate to fossil fuel production and marketing, the economic mix of energy production for in-state use, the efficiency and effectiveness of energy end-use services, the impact of climatic change on Alaska as a geographic unit, Alaska as a high-latitude site for climate change monitoring and analysis, and Alaskan participation with other countries in research and policy development. 7 refs

Mercury from wildfires: Global emission inventories and sensitivity to 2000-2050 global change

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Aditya; Wu, Shiliang; Huang, Yaoxian; Liao, Hong; Kaplan, Jed O.

2018-01-01

We estimate the global Hg wildfire emissions for the 2000s and the potential impacts from the 2000-2050 changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions by combining statistical analysis with global data on vegetation type and coverage as well as fire activities. Global Hg wildfire emissions are estimated to be 612 Mg year-1. Africa is the dominant source region (43.8% of global emissions), followed by Eurasia (31%) and South America (16.6%). We find significant perturbations to wildfire emissions of Hg in the context of global change, driven by the projected changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions. 2000-2050 climate change could increase Hg emissions by 14% globally and regionally by 18% for South America, 14% for Africa and 13% for Eurasia. Projected changes in land use by 2050 could decrease the global Hg emissions from wildfires by 13% mainly driven by a decline in African emissions due to significant agricultural land expansion. Future land cover changes could lead to significant increases in Hg emissions over some regions (+32% North America, +14% Africa, +13% Eurasia). Potential enrichment of terrestrial ecosystems in 2050 in response to changes in Hg anthropogenic emissions could increase Hg wildfire emissions globally (+28%) and regionally (+19% North America, +20% South America, +24% Africa, +41% Eurasia). Our results indicate that the future evolution of climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions are all important factors affecting Hg wildfire emissions in the coming decades.

Global change and genetic diversity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kremer, Antoine

2000-01-01

Are there grounds for concern as to the impact of global change on the future of European forests? This question is approached from the genetic angle, considering the modifications produced by climate change on the diversity and adaptive potential of forest species. In the absence of experimental data, the answers are derived from a set of arguments based on knowledge of evolutionary mechanisms involved in genetic diversity, the post-glacial history of European forests and lessons drawn from recent introductions of foreign wood species. These arguments entail less pessimistic conclusions than those generally reached for consequences attributed to global change. Even if major changes in composition could occur, past events show that genetic erosion capable of challenging the adaptive potential of species is unlikely. (author)

Surface water change as a significant contributor to global evapotranspiration change

Science.gov (United States)

Zhan, S.; Song, C.

2017-12-01

Water comprises a critical component of global/regional hydrological and biogeochemical cycles and is essential to all organisms including humans. In the past several decades, climate change has intensified the hydrological cycle, with significant implications for ecosystem services and feedback to regional and global climate. Evapotranspiration (ET) as a linking mechanism between land surface and atmosphere is central to the water cycle and an excellent indicator of the intensity of water cycle. Knowledge of the temporal changes of ET is crucial for accurately estimating global or regional water budgets and better understanding climate and hydrological interactions. While studies have examined changes in global ET, they were conducted using a constant land and surface water (SW) area. However, as many studies have found that global SW is very dynamic and their surface areas have generally been increasing since the 1980s. The conversion from land to water and vice versa significantly changes the local ET since water bodies evaporate at a rate that can be much higher than that of the land. Here, we quantify the global changes in ET caused by such land-water conversion using remotely-sensed SW area and various ET and potential ET products. New SW and lost SW between circa-1985 and circa-2015 were derived from remote sensing and were used to modify the local ET estimates. We found an increase in ET in all continents as consistent with the net increase in SW area. The increasing SW area lead to a global increase in ET by 30.38 ± 5.28 km3/yr. This is a significant contribution when compared to the 92.95 km3/yr/yr increase in ET between 1982-1997 and 103.43 km3/yr/yr decrease between 1998-2008 by Jung et al., (2010) assuming a constant SW. The results enhance our understanding of the water fluxes between the land and atmosphere and supplement land water budget estimates. We conclude that changes in SW lead to a significant change in global ET that cannot be neglected in

Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

1995-01-01

This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

Global Climate Change as Environmental Megacrisis

OpenAIRE

Endter-Wada, Joanna; Ingram, Helen

2012-01-01

The authors analyze global climate change utilizing insights from the governance and crisis management literatures that seek to understand the prospects, nature, characteristics and the effects of cataclysmic events. They argue that global climate change is a mega-crisis hiding in plain sight yet there has been no proportionate mega-crisis response. People are still grappling with how to make sense of climate change, how to bridge multiple ways of knowing it, and how to negotiate collective c...

International Business and Global Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.

2008-11-15

Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and climate change policy. Embedded in relevant management literature, this book gives a concise treatment of developments in policy and business activity on global, regional and national levels, using examples and systematic data from a large number of international companies. The first part outlines the international climate policy landscape and voluntary initiatives taken by companies, both alone and together with others. The second part examines companies' strategies, covering innovation for climate change, as well as compensation via emissions trading and carbon offsetting. Written by well-known experts in the field, International Business and Global Climate Change illustrates how an environmental topic becomes strategically important in a mainstream sense, affecting corporate decision-making, business processes, products, reputation, advertising, communication, accounting and finance.

International Business and Global Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.

2008-11-01

Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and climate change policy. Embedded in relevant management literature, this book gives a concise treatment of developments in policy and business activity on global, regional and national levels, using examples and systematic data from a large number of international companies. The first part outlines the international climate policy landscape and voluntary initiatives taken by companies, both alone and together with others. The second part examines companies' strategies, covering innovation for climate change, as well as compensation via emissions trading and carbon offsetting. Written by well-known experts in the field, International Business and Global Climate Change illustrates how an environmental topic becomes strategically important in a mainstream sense, affecting corporate decision-making, business processes, products, reputation, advertising, communication, accounting and finance

Global climate change: Implications, challenges, and mitigation measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Majumdar, S.K.

1992-01-01

This book presents a perspective of the potential problem of global climate change induced by human activity. The editors have presented viewpoints of experts (advocates and skeptics) representing the issues of climate change. Possible results from long-term global change discussed in this book include mass migrations of plants and animals; changes in crop yields; flood and drought; and economic, political, and cultural changes. The text contains 20 chapters on the impact of global climate change and 10 chapters on the mitigation of effects and policy development

Global climate change and international security

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rice, M.

1991-01-01

On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

Decadal changes in global surface NO

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Miyazaki, Kazuyuki; Eskes, Henk; Sudo, Kengo; Boersma, Folkert; Bowman, Kevin; Kanaya, Yugo

2017-01-01

Global surface emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO_x ) over a 10-year period (2005-2014) are estimated from an assimilation of multiple satellite data sets: tropospheric NO₂ columns from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME- 2), and

Global Change Effects on Plant-Soil Interactions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dam, Marie

of this dissertation has been to determine how soil food web structure and function is affected when the quantity and quality of plant input is altered under global change. By studying the abundance and composition of soil organisms, particularly those in the rhizosphere, closely associated with living plants, we...... (Paper III). Furthermore, by way of meta-analysis, the role of organisms in global change effects on ecosystem function is modelled (Paper IV). Among CO2, warming and summer drought, CO2 is the factor most consistently impacting soil organisms. CO2 increases abundance of microorganisms and nematodes...... suggest that not only the global change effects on established ecosystems, but also the global change effects on plant community composition as well as land use management may determine the composition and function of soil food webs in the future....

Biodiversity and global change

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Solbrig, Otto Thomas; Emden, H. M. van; Oordt, P. G. W. J. van; Solbrig, Otto T

1992-01-01

The IUBS symposium "Biodiversity and Global Change" held during the 24th General Assembly, 1-6 September, 1991, in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, represented the first attempt to address the issue of bio...

Agricultural Water Use under Global Change

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, T.; Ringler, C.; Rosegrant, M. W.

2008-12-01

Irrigation is by far the single largest user of water in the world and is projected to remain so in the foreseeable future. Globally, irrigated agricultural land comprises less than twenty percent of total cropland but produces about forty percent of the world's food. Increasing world population will require more food and this will lead to more irrigation in many areas. As demands increase and water becomes an increasingly scarce resource, agriculture's competition for water with other economic sectors will be intensified. This water picture is expected to become even more complex as climate change will impose substantial impacts on water availability and demand, in particular for agriculture. To better understand future water demand and supply under global change, including changes in demographic, economic and technological dimensions, the water simulation module of IMPACT, a global water and food projection model developed at the International Food Policy Research Institute, is used to analyze future water demand and supply in agricultural and several non-agricultural sectors using downscaled GCM scenarios, based on water availability simulation done with a recently developed semi-distributed global hydrological model. Risk analysis is conducted to identify countries and regions where future water supply reliability for irrigation is low, and food security may be threatened in the presence of climate change. Gridded shadow values of irrigation water are derived for global cropland based on an optimization framework, and they are used to illustrate potential irrigation development by incorporating gridded water availability and existing global map of irrigation areas.

Climate change experiments in Hamburg

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gubasch, U [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

1996-12-31

Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

Climate change experiments in Hamburg

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gubasch, U. [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

1995-12-31

Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

PERSPECTIVE: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security

Science.gov (United States)

Cassman, Kenneth G.

2007-03-01

source: faostat.fao.org/site/395/default.aspx. Given this situation, the question of whether global climate change will have a net positive, negative, or negligible impact on crop yields takes on a larger significance because additional hundreds of millions of people could be at risk of hunger and the window of opportunity for mounting an effective response is closing. To answer this question, Lobell and Field use an innovative empirical/geostatistical approach to estimate the impact of increased temperature since 1980 on crop yields—a period when global mean temperature increased ~0.4 °C [2]. For three major crops—maize, wheat, and barley—there was a significant negative response to increased temperature. For all six crops evaluated (also including rice, soybean, and sorghum), the net impact of climate trends on yield since 1980 was negative. While the approach used by Lobell and Field can be questioned on several pointsNote2, the body of their work represents an ambitious global assessment of recent climate impact on crop yields. Most noteworthy is their conclusion that: the combined effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate trends have largely cancelled each other over the past two decades. They contrast their finding with the conclusion of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that CO2 benefits will exceed temperature-related yield reductions up to a 2 °C increase in mean temperature [3]. It should be noted, however, that the IPCC is coming out with a new assessment to be released in April 2007 (www.ipcc.ch/), and it remains to be seen if this conclusion still holds. The purpose here is not to support or challenge the conclusions of either Lobell and Field or the IPCC, but rather to highlight the fact that there are substantive differences between results obtained from geostatistical assessments based on recent climate trends and actual crop yields versus assessments based on results from controlled experiments in growth

Alternative legal and institutional approaches to global change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thacher, P.S.

1991-01-01

The processes of global change currently under way cannot be dealt with in isolation. Factors linked to environmental quality such as demographic growth, economic interdependence and indebtedness, sociopolitical changes, and others must be managed collectively. In looking at the problems of global change, a central question before us is: How comprehensive should a legal regime be in a world of considerable uncertainty in which everything is interrelated with everything else, and what we do may, or may not be, have irreversible consequences for future generations. This article focuses on the problem of global warming to provide a model approach to the larger issues of global change. This reduces the scope of global change to a manageable but representative class of the problems at issue. The author suggests an approach to stabilize global climate by the end of the next century. However, even within this relatively narrow context of stabilizing the climate, a comprehensive approach is needed to address all heat-trapping gases - not just CO 2 - to ensure that all human activities generating these gases are managed properly, without causing other problems

Global Change. Teaching Activities on Global Change for Grades 4-6.

Science.gov (United States)

Geological Survey (Dept. of Interior), Reston, VA.

This packet contains a series of teaching guides on global change. The series includes lessons on dendrochronology; land, air, and water; and island living. Included is information such as : laws of straws; where land, air, and water meet; and Earth as home. Each section provides an introductory description of the activity, the purpose of the…

Development of Global Change Research in Developing Countries

Science.gov (United States)

Sierra, Carlos A.; Yepes, Adriana P.

2010-10-01

Ecosystems and Global Change in the Context of the Neotropics; Medellín, Colombia, 19-20 May 2010; Research in most areas of global environmental change is overwhelmingly produced outside developing countries, which are usually consumers rather than producers of the knowledge associated with their natural resources. While there have been important recent advances in understanding the causes of global-¬scale changes and their consequences to the functioning of tropical ecosystems, there is still an important gap in the understanding of these changes at regional and national levels (where important political decisions are usually made). A symposium was held with the aim of surveying the current state of research activities in a small, developing country such as Colombia. It was jointly organized by the Research Center on Ecosystems and Global Change, Carbono and Bosques; the National University of Colombia at Medellín and the Colombian Ministry of the Environment, Housing, and Regional Development. This 2-¬day symposium gathered Colombian and international scientists involved in different areas of global environmental change, tropical ecosystems, and human societies.

Lived experience of economic and political trends related to globalization.

Science.gov (United States)

Cushon, Jennifer A; Muhajarine, Nazeem; Labonte, Ronald

2010-01-01

A multi-method case study examined how the economic and political processes of globalization have influenced the determinants of health among low-income children in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada. This paper presents the results from the qualitative interview component of the case study. The purpose of the interviews was to uncover the lived experience of low-income families and their children in Saskatoon with regards to political and economic trends related to globalization, an important addition to the usual globalization and health research that relies primarily on cross-country regressions in which the personal impacts remain hidden. In-depth phenomenological interviews with 26 low-income parents of young children (aged zero to five) who were residents of Saskatoon. A combination of volunteer and criterion sampling was used. Interview questions were open-ended and based upon an analytical framework. Analysis proceeded through immersion in the data, a process of open coding, and finally through a process of selective coding. The larger case study and interviews indicate that globalization has largely not been benefiting low-income parents with young children. Low-income families with young children were struggling to survive, despite the tremendous economic growth occurring in Saskatchewan and Saskatoon at the time of the interviews. This often led to participants expressing a sense of helplessness, despair, isolation, and/or anger. Respondents' experiences suggest that globalization-related changes in social conditions and public policies and programs have great potential to negatively affect family health through either psychosocial effects in individuals and/or decreased levels of social cohesion in the community.

Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project

Science.gov (United States)

Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.

2011-12-01

In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region

Satellite Contributions to Global Change Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Parkinson, Claire L.

2009-01-01

By providing a global view with a level playing field (no region missed because of unfavorable surface conditions or political boundaries), satellites have made major contributions to improved monitoring and understanding of our constantly changing planet. The global view has allowed surprising realizations like the relative sparsity of lightning strikes over oceans and the large-scale undulations on the massive Antarctic ice sheet. It has allowed the tracking of all sorts of phenomena, including aerosols, both natural and anthropogenic, as they move with the atmospheric circulation and impact weather and human health. But probably nothing that the global view allows is more important in the long term than its provision. of unbiased data sets to address the issue of global change, considered by many to be among the most important issues facing humankind today. With satellites we can monitor atmospheric temperatures at all latitudes and longitudes, and obtain a global average that lessens the likelihood of becoming endlessly mired in the confusions brought about by the certainty of regional differences. With satellites we can monitor greenhouse gases such as CO2 not just above individual research stations but around the globe. With satellites we can monitor the polar sea ice covers, as we have done since the late 1970s, determining and quantifying the significant reduction in Arctic sea ice and the slight growth in Antarctic sea ice over that period, With satellites we can map the full extent and changes in the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletions that were first identified from using a single ground station; and through satellite data we have witnessed from afar land surface changes brought about by humans both intentionally, as with wide-scale deforestation, and unintentionally, as with the decay of the Aral Sea. The satellite data are far from sufficient for all that we need in order to understand the global system and forecast its changes, as we also need

Global change: Acronyms and abbreviations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Woodard, C.T. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Stoss, F.W. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Energy, Environment and Resources Center

1995-05-01

This list of acronyms and abbreviations is compiled to provide the user with a ready reference to dicipher the linguistic initialisms and abridgements for the study of global change. The terms included in this first edition were selected from a wide variety of sources: technical reports, policy documents, global change program announcements, newsletters, and other periodicals. The disciplinary interests covered by this document include agriculture, atmospheric science, ecology, environmental science, oceanography, policy science, and other fields. In addition to its availability in hard copy, the list of acronyms and abbreviations is available in DOS-formatted diskettes and through CDIAC`s anonymous File Transfer Protocol (FTP) area on the Internet.

Global climate change and California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knox, J.B.; Scheuring, A.F.

1991-01-01

In the fall of 1988 the University of California organized a new public-service initiative on global climate change in response to inquiries and requests from members of Congress and the Department of Energy (DOE). This new systemwide initiative involved all of the University of California campuses and the University's three national laboratories at Berkeley, Los Alamos, and Livermore. The goal of this Greenhouse Initiative was to focus the multidisciplinary resources of the UC campuses and the team-oriented research capabilities of the laboratories on the prospect of global warming and its associated effects on the planet and its nations. In consultation with the DOE, the organizers proposed a series of workshops to focus University of California research resources on the issue of global warming, to contribute to the congressionally mandated DOE studies on options for the US to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 20% by the year 2000, and to begin building a long-term research base contributing to an improved understanding of global change in all of its complexity and diverse discipline implications. This volume contains papers from the first of these workshops. Individual papers are processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

Clean coal technologies and global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Long, R.S.

1993-01-01

The role for Clean Coal Technologies is discussed in the context of the global climate change debate. Global climate change is, of course as the name implies, a global issue. This clearly distinguishes this issue from acid rain or ozone non-attainment, which are regional in nature. Therefore, the issue requires a global perspective, one that looks at the issue not just from a US policy standpoint but from an international policy view. This includes the positions of other individual nations, trading blocks, common interest groups, and the evolving United Nations bureaucracy. It is assumed that as the global economy continues to grow, energy demand will also grow. With growth in economic activity and energy use, will come growth in worldwide greenhouse gas emissions, including growth in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Much of this growth will occur in developing economies which intend to fuel their growth with coal-fired power, especially China and India. Two basic premises which set out the boundaries of this topic are presented. First, there is the premise that global climate change is occurring, or is about to occur, and that governments must do something to mitigate the causes of climate change. Although this premise is highly rebuttable, and not based on scientific certainty, political science has driven it to the forefront of the debate. Second is the premise that advanced combustion CCTs, with their higher efficiencies, will result in lower CO 2 emissions, and hence lessen any contribution of greater coal use to potential global climate change. This promise is demonstrably true. This discussion focuses on recent and emerging public sector policy actions, which may in large part establish a new framework in which the private sector will find new challenges and new opportunities

Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parson, E A

2008-01-01

Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.

Data management and global change research: Technology and infrastructure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morrissey, W.A.

1993-01-01

There is a consensus among many scientists who would perform global change research that global-scale scientific data management programs and enabling policies need to be developed and implemented concomitantly with, if not in advance of, global change research programs. They are hopeful that US Federal government policies for scientific and technical data and information management will provide timely archival, analysis, and dissemination of global change research data and will enable them to share that data with colleagues, internationally. Federal data managers believe that data management technology and infrastructure requirements for global change research programs can be met through existing or planned enhancements to systems in operation used for scientific data gathering, processing, and dissemination. Scientists are concerned, however, that because of the scope and diversity of global change research programs entirely new systems and approaches to data management may need to be devised

Global change integrating factors: Tropical tropopause trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reck, R.A.

1994-01-01

This research proposes new criteria, shifts in the height and temperature of the tropical tropopause, as measures of global climate change. The search for signs of global warming in the temperature signal near the earth's surface is extremely difficult, largely because numerous factors contribute to surface temperature forcing with only a small signal-to-noise ratio relative to long-term effects. In the long term, no part of the atmosphere can be considered individually because the evolution will be a function of all states of all portions. A large surface greenhouse signal might ultimately be expected, but the analysis of surface temperature may not be particularly useful for early detection. What is suggested here is not an analysis of trends in the surface temperature field or any of its spatial averages, but rather an integrating factor or integrator, a single measure of global change that could be considered a test of significant change for the entire global system. Preferably, this global change integrator would vary slowly and would take into account many of the causes of climate change, with a relatively large signal-to-noise ratio. Such an integrator could be monitored, and abrupt or accelerated changes could serve as an early warning signal for policy makers and the public. Earlier work has suggested that temperature has much less short-term and small-scale noise in the lower stratosphere, and thus the global warming signal at that level might be more easily deconvoluted, because the cooling rate near the 200-mb level is almost constant with latitude. A study of the temperature signal at this pressure level might show a clearer trend due to increased levels of greenhouse gases, but it would yield information about the troposphere only by inference

Global and local concerns: what attitudes and beliefs motivate farmers to mitigate and adapt to climate change?

Science.gov (United States)

Haden, Van R; Niles, Meredith T; Lubell, Mark; Perlman, Joshua; Jackson, Louise E

2012-01-01

In response to agriculture's vulnerability and contribution to climate change, many governments are developing initiatives that promote the adoption of mitigation and adaptation practices among farmers. Since most climate policies affecting agriculture rely on voluntary efforts by individual farmers, success requires a sound understanding of the factors that motivate farmers to change practices. Recent evidence suggests that past experience with the effects of climate change and the psychological distance associated with people's concern for global and local impacts can influence environmental behavior. Here we surveyed farmers in a representative rural county in California's Central Valley to examine how their intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation practices is influenced by previous climate experiences and their global and local concerns about climate change. Perceived changes in water availability had significant effects on farmers' intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation strategies, which were mediated through global and local concerns respectively. This suggests that mitigation is largely motivated by psychologically distant concerns and beliefs about climate change, while adaptation is driven by psychologically proximate concerns for local impacts. This match between attitudes and behaviors according to the psychological distance at which they are cognitively construed indicates that policy and outreach initiatives may benefit by framing climate impacts and behavioral goals concordantly; either in a global context for mitigation or a local context for adaptation.

Construction of climate change scenarios from transient climate change experiments for the IPCC impacts assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Viner, D.; Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Jones, P.D.

1994-01-01

This paper outlines the different methods which may be used for the construction of regional climate change scenarios. The main focus of the paper is the construction of global climate change scenarios from climate change experiments carried out using General Circulation Models (GCMS) An introduction to some GCM climate change experiments highlights the difference between model types and experiments (e.g., equilibrium or transient). The latest generation of climate change experiments has been performed using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMS. These allow transient simulations of climate change to be performed with respect to a given greenhouse gas forcing scenario. There are, however, a number of problems with these simulations which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios for use in climate change impacts assessment. The characteristics of the transient climate change experiments which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios are discussed. Three examples of these problems are: different climate change experiments use different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios; the 'cold-start' problem makes it difficult to link future projections of climate change to a given calendar year; a drift of the climate is noticeable in the control simulations. In order to construct climate change scenarios for impacts assessment a method has therefore to be employed which addresses these problems. At present the climate modeling and climate change impacts communities are somewhat polarized in their approach to spatial scales. Current GCMs model the climate at resolutions larger than 2.5 x 3.75 degree, while the majority of impacts assessment studies are undertaken at scales below 50km (or 0.5 degree). This paper concludes by addressing the problems in bringing together these two different modeling perspectives by presenting a number of regional climate change scenarios. 35 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs

Global climate change: an unequivocal reality; Cambio climatico global: una realidad inequivoca

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Raynal-Villasenor, J.A. [Universidad de las Americas, Puebla, Puebla (Mexico)]. E-mail: josea.raynal@udlap.mx

2011-10-15

During several years, a long discussion has taken place over the reality of global climate change phenomenon and, if there is one, what could be its cause. Once the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC, 2007) - IPCC is part the United Nations Organization (UN) - was published, it was stated that there is a developing global climatic change and that the cause is unequivocally related with the human activity in the planet Earth. In this paper, relevant information is given about the development of global climatic change issues and some actions are mentioned that each human being of this planet can implement to mitigate it, since it has been accepted that it's impossible to stop it. [Spanish] Durante varios anos se ha discutido si existe un cambio climatico global y, si lo hay, cual es su causa. Una vez publicado el 4o. Reporte de Valoracion del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climatico (IPCC, 2007) - el IPCC es parte de la Organizacion de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) - se preciso que hay un cambio climatico global en desarrollo y la causa inequivoca que lo esta produciendo es la actividad humana en el planeta Tierra, tambien se hablo en el IPCC de las causas naturales por las cuales el planeta se esta calentando. En el presente articulo, se da informacion relevante al cambio climatico global en desarrollo y se mencionan algunas acciones que cada ser humano de este planeta puede implementar para mitigarlo, ya que es imposible detenerlo.

Soil fungal community responses to global changes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Haugwitz, Merian Skouw

Global change will affect the functioning and structure of terrestrial ecosystems and since soil fungi are key players in organic matter decomposition and nutrient turnover, shifts in fungal community composition might have a strong impact on soil functioning. The main focus of this thesis...... was therefore to investigate the impact of global environmental changes on soil fungal communities in a temperate and subartic heath ecosystem. The objective was further to determine global change effects on major functional groups of fungi and analyze the influence of fungal community changes on soil carbon...... and nutrient availability and storage. By combining molecular methods such as 454 pyrosequencing and quantitative PCR of fungal ITS amplicons with analyses of soil enzymes, nutrient pools of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus we were able to characterize soil fungal communities as well as their impact on nutrient...

Inadvertent weather modification urban areas - lessons for global climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Changnon, S A [Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL (USA)

1992-05-01

Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the USA's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multidisciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioural implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally.

Inadvertent weather modification urban areas - lessons for global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Changnon, S.A.

1992-01-01

Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the USA's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multidisciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioural implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally

Changes in equatorial zonal circulations and precipitation in the context of the global warming and natural modes

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, B. H.; Ha, K. J.

2017-12-01

The strengthening and westward shift of Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) is observed during the recent decades. However, the relative roles of global warming and natural variability on the change in PWC unclearly remain. By conducting numerical atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments using the spatial SST patterns in the global warming and natural modes which are obtained by the multi-variate EOF analysis from three variables including precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), and divergent zonal wind, we indicated that the westward shift and strengthening of PWC are caused by the global warming SST pattern in the global warming mode and the negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation-like SST pattern in the natural mode. The SST distribution of the Pacific Ocean (PO) has more influence on the changes in equatorial zonal circulations and tropical precipitation than that of the Indian Ocean (IO) and Atlantic Ocean (AO). The change in precipitation is also related to the equatorial zonal circulations variation through the upward and downward motions of the circulations. The IO and AO SST anomalies in the global warming mode can affect on the changes in equatorial zonal circulations, but the influence of PO SST disturbs the Indian Walker circulation and Atlantic Walker circulation changes by the IO and AO. The zonal shift of PWC is found to be highly associated with a zonal gradient of SST over the PO through the idealized numerical AGCM experiments and predictions of CMIP5 models.

Changing global carbon cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Canadell, Pep

2007-01-01

Full text: The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (C02) is the single largest human perturbation on the earth's radiative balance contributing to climate change. Its rate of change reflects the balance between anthropogenic carbon emissions and the dynamics of a number of terrestrial and ocean processes that remove or emit C02. It is the long term evolution of this balance that will determine to large extent the speed and magnitude of the human induced climate change and the mitigation requirements to stabilise atmospheric C02 concentrations at any given level. In this talk, we show new trends in global carbon sources and sinks, with particularly focus on major shifts occurring since 2000 when the growth rate of atmospheric C02 has reached its highest level on record. The acceleration in the C02 growth results from the combination of several changes in properties of the carbon cycle, including: acceleration of anthropogenic carbon emissions; increased carbon intensity of the global economy, and decreased efficiency of natural carbon sinks. We discuss in more detail some of the possible causes of the reduced efficiency of natural carbon sinks on land and oceans, such as the decreased net sink in the Southern Ocean and on terrestrial mid-latitudes due to world-wide occurrence of drought. All these changes reported here characterise a carbon cycle that is generating stronger than expected climate forcing, and sooner than expected

Open access: changing global science publishing.

Science.gov (United States)

Gasparyan, Armen Yuri; Ayvazyan, Lilit; Kitas, George D

2013-08-01

The article reflects on open access as a strategy of changing the quality of science communication globally. Successful examples of open-access journals are presented to highlight implications of archiving in open digital repositories for the quality and citability of research output. Advantages and downsides of gold, green, and hybrid models of open access operating in diverse scientific environments are described. It is assumed that open access is a global trend which influences the workflow in scholarly journals, changing their quality, credibility, and indexability.

Integrated assessment of global climate change with learning-by-doing and energy-related research and development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller-Fuerstenberger, Georg; Stephan, Gunter

2007-01-01

This paper presents a small-scale version of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) of global climate change, which is based on a global, regionally differentiated computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with endogenous technological change. This model can be viewed as a basic framework for analyzing a broad range of economic issues related to climate change, in particular since technological change is represented in two ways: on the one hand, there is learning-by-doing (LbD) in non-fossil energy supply technologies, and on the other hand there is research and development (R and D)-driven energy-saving technical progress in production. Computational experiments are added for illustrating the role of technological innovation in a world both with and without cooperation in the solution of the global climate problem

Contributions of a global network of tree diversity experiments to sustainable forest plantations.

Science.gov (United States)

Verheyen, Kris; Vanhellemont, Margot; Auge, Harald; Baeten, Lander; Baraloto, Christopher; Barsoum, Nadia; Bilodeau-Gauthier, Simon; Bruelheide, Helge; Castagneyrol, Bastien; Godbold, Douglas; Haase, Josephine; Hector, Andy; Jactel, Hervé; Koricheva, Julia; Loreau, Michel; Mereu, Simone; Messier, Christian; Muys, Bart; Nolet, Philippe; Paquette, Alain; Parker, John; Perring, Mike; Ponette, Quentin; Potvin, Catherine; Reich, Peter; Smith, Andy; Weih, Martin; Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael

2016-02-01

The area of forest plantations is increasing worldwide helping to meet timber demand and protect natural forests. However, with global change, monospecific plantations are increasingly vulnerable to abiotic and biotic disturbances. As an adaption measure we need to move to plantations that are more diverse in genotypes, species, and structure, with a design underpinned by science. TreeDivNet, a global network of tree diversity experiments, responds to this need by assessing the advantages and disadvantages of mixed species plantations. The network currently consists of 18 experiments, distributed over 36 sites and five ecoregions. With plantations 1-15 years old, TreeDivNet can already provide relevant data for forest policy and management. In this paper, we highlight some early results on the carbon sequestration and pest resistance potential of more diverse plantations. Finally, suggestions are made for new, innovative experiments in understudied regions to complement the existing network.

Global Changes of the Water Cycle Intensity

Science.gov (United States)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Walker, Gregory K.

2003-01-01

available observations. The decreasing continental trend in precipitation is located primarily over tropical land regions, with some other regions, such as North America experiencing an increasing trend. Precipitation trends are diagnosed further using the water tracers to delineate the precipitation that occurs because of continental evaporation, as opposed to oceanic evaporation. These diagnostics show that over global land areas, the recycling of continental moisture is decreasing in time. However, the recycling changes are not spatially uniform so that some regions, most notably over the United States, experience continental recycling of water that increases in time.

Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

Science.gov (United States)

Xiaohui Tian; Brent Sohngen; John B Kim; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

2016-01-01

This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, theMC2model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase...

Perspectives on global nursing leadership: international experiences from the field.

Science.gov (United States)

Buckner, E B; Anderson, D J; Garzon, N; Hafsteinsdóttir, T B; Lai, C K Y; Roshan, R

2014-12-01

Nursing leaders from six countries engaged in a year-long discussion on global leadership development. The purpose of these dialogues was to strengthen individual and collective capacity as nursing leaders in a global society. Field experiences in practice and education were shared. Perspectives on global leadership can strengthen nurses' contributions to practice, workplace and policy issues worldwide. Transformational leadership empowers nurses' increasing confidence. Mentoring is needed to stimulate leadership development but this is lacking in many settings where nurses practice, teach and influence policy. Organizations with global mission provide opportunity for nurses' professional growth in leadership through international dialogues. Dialogues among participants were held monthly by conference calls or videoconferences. Example stories from each participant illustrated nursing leadership in action. From these exemplars, concepts were chosen to create a framework. Emerging perspectives and leadership themes represented all contexts of practice, education, research and policy. The cultural context of each country was reflected in the examples. Themes emerged that crossed global regions and countries. Themes were creativity, change, collaboration, community, context and courage. Relationships initially formed in professional organizations can be extended to intentionally facilitate global nursing leadership development. Exemplars from the dialogues demonstrated nursing leadership in health policy development within each cultural context. Recommendations are given for infrastructure development in organizations to enhance future collaborations. © 2014 International Council of Nurses.

Global-Change research in Norway. National inventory of Global Change research in Norway i 2011; Global Change-forskning i Norge. En kartlegging av norsk Global change-forskning i 2011

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-07-01

From the preface: The Norwegian Global Change (GC) Committee is appointed by the Research Council and works to strengthen the association of Norwegian researchers and research to the international GC programs and IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis). As part of this effort, the Committee wanted a survey of Norwegian research activities linked to these programs. CICERO was engaged to carry out survey work in dialogue with the Research and GC Committee. The results of the survey are presented in this report. The GC programs are: World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), International geosphere-biosphere program (IGBP), International program of biodiversity science (DIVERSITAS), International Human Dimension Programme Wed Global Environmental Change (IHDP). In addition to IIASA. The results of the survey will be, and is, used as a basis for further activities of the Committee in terms of incentives that can increase the internationalization of Norwegian research. Furthermore, it help to ensure good coupling to these programs in their transition to a common platform in the international Future Earth Initiative (http://www.icsu.org/future-earth).(eb)

The Ecological consequences of global climate change

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Woodward, F. I

1992-01-01

... & land use - modeling potential responses of vegetation to global climate change - effects of climatic change on population dynamics of crop pests - responses of soils to climate change - predicting...

Myths and realities of global climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bruce, J.P.

1991-01-01

Greenhouse gases in the environment are increasing, resulting in global warming. This paper discusses three misconceptions about global warming. The three topics are the level of consensus among world scientists about global warming, how 'costly' remedies for global warming will be, and will growth in developing countries offset any changes made in developed countries. Possibilities for Canadian leadership on this critical issue are discussed. 1 fig.

NASA NDATC Global Climate Change Education Initiative

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, B.; Wood, E.; Meyer, D.; Maynard, N.; Pandya, R. E.

2009-12-01

Country in the Northern Plains; (4) strengthen our partnerships in the scientific community in addressing climate change issues that will impact our reservations; and (5) utilize NASA resources and instrumentation through LPDAAC (Landsat TM and ETM +, MODIS, ASTER and other remotely sensed data) to educate our TCU students about appropriate research and modeling applications. Few of the TCU STEM faculty have read and comprehend the “Summaries for Policy Makers” published by the IPCC working groups, the Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, or the ACIA report. Many of these same faculty have little or no experience with remote sensing applications. Through this project we will empower our colleges and students to fully understand the threats posed by this important phenomenon. We will provide training for our TCU faculty, who, in turn, will prepare our students with the knowledge to implement the diverse and comprehensive mitigation strategies needed to sustain our resources and tribal communities.

Global climate change has already begun

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sinclair, J.

1991-01-01

Global warning and climate change is now evident around the planet. Six of the eight warmest years on record occurred in the 1980s, while 1990 was the hottest year on record. The global imbalances seem set to worsen unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced and restoration of the earth's forests is begun

How will changes in globalization impact growth in south Asia ?

OpenAIRE

Ghani, Ejaz; Anand, Rahul

2009-01-01

The current global crisis may change globalization itself, as both developed and developing countries adjust to global imbalances that contributed to the crisis. Will these changes help or hinder economic recovery and growth in South Asia? This is the focus of this paper. The three models of globalization--trade, capital, and economic management--may not be the same in the future. Changes ...

Global climate change and California's water resources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaux, H.J. Jr.

1991-01-01

This chapter records the deliberations of a group of California water experts about answers to these and other questions related to the impact of global warming on California's water resources. For the most part, those participating in the deliberations believe that the current state of scientific knowledge about global warming and its impacts on water resources is insufficient to permit hard distinctions to be made between short- and long-term changes. consequently, the ideas discussed here are based on a number of assumptions about specific climatic manifestations of global warming in California, as described earlier in this volume. Ultimately, however, effective public responses to forestall the potentially costly impacts of global climate change will probably depend upon the credible validation of the prospects of global climate warming. This chapter contains several sections. First, the likely effects of global warming on California's water resources and water-supply systems are identified and analyzed. Second, possible responses to mitigate these effects are enumerated and discussed. Third, the major policy issues are identified. A final section lists recommendations for action and major needs for information

Air Pollution, Global Change and Forests in the New Millennium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karnosky, D.F.; Pikkarainen, J.; Percy, K.E.; Simpson, C.; Chappelka, A.H.

2003-01-01

The chapters in this book present a snapshot of the state of knowledge of air pollution effects at the beginning of the 21st century. From their different disciplines, a distinguished collection of authors document their understanding of how leaves, trees, and forests respond to air pollutants and climate change. Scenarios of global change and air pollution are described. The authors describe responses of forests to climate variability, tropospheric ozone, rising atmospheric CO2, the combination of CO2 and ozone, and deposition of acidic compounds and heavy metals. The responses to ozone receive particular attention because of increasing concern about its damaging effects and increasing concentrations in rural areas. Scaling issues are addressed - from leaves to trees, from juvenile trees to mature trees, from short-term responses to long-term responses, and from small-scale experiments and observations to large-scale forest ecosystems. This book is one major product of a conference sponsored by the International Union of Forestry Research Organizations, the USDA Forest Service Global Change Northern Stations Program, the Arthur Ross Foundation, NCASI, the Canadian Forest Service, and Michigan Technological University. The conference was held in May 2000 in Houghton, Michigan, USA

The US Global Change Data and Information Management Program Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) requires massive quantities of highly diverse data and information to improve our understanding of global change processes. The Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences (CEES) comprises Federal agencies that need to provide reliable data and information for this purpose from existing programs and archives and from new activities designed to improve upon the data and information. This US Global Change Data and Information Management Program Plan commits the participating Federal agencies to work with each other, with academia, and with the international community to make it as easy as possible for researchers and others to access and use global change data and information. Toward this end, the agencies are organizing a Global Change Data and Information System (GCDIS), which takes advantage of the mission resources and responsibilities of each agency. Sources for global change data and information are national and international agency programs, including those focused on the USGCRP, such as NASA's Earth Observing System [EOS] and other agency global change initiatives and those contributing to the USGCRP from other agency programs not focused on global change. Data and information include raw data from observation systems, value-added data from data assembly activities, and derived data and information from models and other investigations. Additional data and information are identified from appropriate sources including academia and the international community

A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Verburg, Peter H [Institute for Environmental Studies, Amsterdam Global Change Institute, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); Ellis, Erle C [Department of Geography and Environmental Systems, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD 21250 (United States); Letourneau, Aurelien, E-mail: Peter.Verburg@ivm.vu.nl [UMR 5175 Centre d' Ecologie Fonctionnelle and Evolutive, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 1919 Route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier cedex 5 (France)

2011-07-15

Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.

A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

Science.gov (United States)

Verburg, Peter H.; Ellis, Erle C.; Letourneau, Aurelien

2011-07-01

Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.

A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verburg, Peter H; Ellis, Erle C; Letourneau, Aurelien

2011-01-01

Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.

Future Global Mortality from Changes in Air Pollution Attributable to Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd A.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali;

Understanding Global Change: Tools for exploring Earth processes and biotic change through time

Science.gov (United States)

Bean, J. R.; White, L. D.; Berbeco, M.

2014-12-01

Teaching global change is one of the great pedagogical challenges of our day because real understanding entails integrating a variety of concepts from different scientific subject areas, including chemistry, physics, and biology, with a variety of causes and impacts in the past, present, and future. With the adoption of the Next Generation Science Standards, which emphasize climate change and other human impacts on natural systems, there has never been a better time to provide instructional support to educators on these topics. In response to this clear need, the University of California Museum of Paleontology, in collaboration with the National Center for Science Education, developed a new web resource for teachers and students titled "Understanding Global Change" (UGC) that introduces the drivers and impacts of global change. This website clarifies the connections among deep time, modern Earth system processes, and anthropogenic influences, and provides K-16 instructors with a wide range of easy-to-use tools, strategies, and lesson plans for communicating these important concepts regarding global change and the basic Earth systems processes. In summer 2014, the UGC website was field-tested during a workshop with 25 K-12 teachers and science educators. Feedback from participants helped the UGC team develop and identify pedagogically sound lesson plans and instructional tools on global change. These resources are accessible through UGC's searchable database, are aligned with NGSS and Common Core, and are categorized by grade level, subject, and level of inquiry-based instruction (confirmation, structured, guided, open). Providing a range of content and tools at levels appropriate for teachers is essential because our initial needs assessment found that educators often feel that they lack the content knowledge and expertise to address complex, but relevant global change issues, such as ocean acidification and deforestation. Ongoing needs assessments and surveys of

Atlas of the global distribution of atmospheric heating during the global weather experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Schaack, Todd K.; Johnson, Donald R.

1991-01-01

Global distributions of atmospheric heating for the annual cycle of the Global Weather Experiment are estimated from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Level 3b data set. Distributions of monthly, seasonally, and annually averaged heating are presented for isentropic and isobaric layers within the troposphere and for the troposphere as a whole. The distributions depict a large-scale structure of atmospheric heating that appears spatially and temporally consistent with known features of the global circulation and the seasonal evolution.

Global environmental change and sustainable development in Europe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jaeger, J.; Liberatore, A.; Grundlach, K. [eds.

1995-12-31

The document contains all but two papers presented at the Workshop as well as a summary of the contributions and discussions, a list of socio-economic research priorities identified at the meeting and a policy brief based on the themes woven together at the Workshop. The workshop was organised within the framework of the European Network for Research in Global Change (ENRICH). Papers include: global environmental change and sustainable development in Europe and in the Mediterranean basin, water management and global environmental change policies, human impacts on the nitrogen cycle, the merchandising of biodiversity, environmental performance indicators, urban sustainability indicators and strategies for sustainability.

Global Responses to Potential Climate Change: A Simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Mary Louise; Mowry, George

This interdisciplinary five-day unit provides students with an understanding of the issues in the debate on global climate change. Introductory lessons enhance understanding of the "greenhouse gases" and their sources with possible global effects of climate change. Students then roleplay negotiators from 10 nations in a simulation of the…

Regional to global changes in drought and implications for future changes under global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Kam, J.

2012-12-01

Drought can have large impacts on multiple sectors, including agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, transport, industry and tourism. In extreme cases, regional drought can lead to food insecurity and famine, and in intensive agricultural regions, extend to global economic impacts in a connected world. Recent droughts globally have been severe and costly but whether they are becoming more frequent and severe, and the attribution of this, is a key question. Observational evidence at large scales, such as satellite remote sensing are often subject to short-term records and inhomogeneities, and ground based data are sparse in many regions. Reliance on model output is also subject to error and simplifications in the model physics that can, for example, amplify the impact of global warming on drought. This presentation will show the observational and model evidence for changes in drought, with a focus on the interplay between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand and its impact on the terrestrial water cycle and drought. We discuss the fidelity of climate models to reproduce our best estimates of drought variability and its drivers historically, and the implications of this on uncertainties in future projections of drought from CMIP5 models, and how this has changed since CMIP3.

GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #24: PUBLICATION OF FY2001 EDITION OF "OUR CHANGING PLANET"

Science.gov (United States)

The EPA Global Change Research Program is pleased to inform you of the publication of the new Our Changing Planet: The FY2001 U.S. Global Change Research Program. This annual report to the Congress was prepared under the auspices of the President's National Science and Technolog...

International business and global climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pinkse, J.; Kolk, A.

2008-01-01

Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and

U.S. Global Change Research Program

Science.gov (United States)

... Announcing... Read more The Deepening Story of How Climate Change Threatens Human Health Read more Celebrating the 25th Anniversary of the U.S. Global Change Research... Read more Nomination Period Open for the Sustained National ... more Connecting America’s Communities with Actionable Climate ...

Contextualizing the global relevance of local land change observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Magliocca, N R; Ellis, E C; Oates, T; Schmill, M

2014-01-01

To understand global changes in the Earth system, scientists must generalize globally from observations made locally and regionally. In land change science (LCS), local field-based observations are costly and time consuming, and generally obtained by researchers working at disparate local and regional case-study sites chosen for different reasons. As a result, global synthesis efforts in LCS tend to be based on non-statistical inferences subject to geographic biases stemming from data limitations and fragmentation. Thus, a fundamental challenge is the production of generalized knowledge that links evidence of the causes and consequences of local land change to global patterns and vice versa. The GLOBE system was designed to meet this challenge. GLOBE aims to transform global change science by enabling new scientific workflows based on statistically robust, globally relevant integration of local and regional observations using an online social-computational and geovisualization system. Consistent with the goals of Digital Earth, GLOBE has the capability to assess the global relevance of local case-study findings within the context of over 50 global biophysical, land-use, climate, and socio-economic datasets. We demonstrate the implementation of one such assessment – a representativeness analysis – with a recently published meta-study of changes in swidden agriculture in tropical forests. The analysis provides a standardized indicator to judge the global representativeness of the trends reported in the meta-study, and a geovisualization is presented that highlights areas for which sampling efforts can be reduced and those in need of further study. GLOBE will enable researchers and institutions to rapidly share, compare, and synthesize local and regional studies within the global context, as well as contributing to the larger goal of creating a Digital Earth

Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

Science.gov (United States)

Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

2002-01-01

The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors

Global priority conservation areas in the face of 21st century climate change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Junsheng Li

Full Text Available In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the "Global 200" ecoregions - a set of priority ecoregions designed to "achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth's ecosystems" - over the 21(st century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991-2010 and 2081-2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change.

A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verburg, P.H.; Ellis, E.C.; Letourneau, A.

2011-01-01

Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here

Global climate change and California's natural ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Botkin, D.B.; Nisbet, R.A.; Woodhouse, C.; Ferren, W.; Bicknell, S.; Bentley, B.

1991-01-01

If projections of global climate models are correct, the natural ecosystems of California might undergo major changes during the next century. Such changes might include large economic losses in timber, fisheries, and recreation; major changes in our national and state parks and forests and in our nature preserves and conservation areas; increase in extinction of endangered species; loss of large areas of existing habitats; and development of new habitats whose location and areal extent can only be surmised. Many areas currently set aside for the conservation of specific ecosystems might no longer be suitable to them. Yet, in spite of the potential seriousness of these problems, which could dwarf all other environmental changes, California is at present in a poor situation to project what the effects of global change on its natural ecosystems might be

Cosmopolitan Species As Models for Ecophysiological Responses to Global Change: The Common Reed Phragmites australis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Franziska Eller

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Phragmites australis is a cosmopolitan grass and often the dominant species in the ecosystems it inhabits. Due to high intraspecific diversity and phenotypic plasticity, P. australis has an extensive ecological amplitude and a great capacity to acclimate to adverse environmental conditions; it can therefore offer valuable insights into plant responses to global change. Here we review the ecology and ecophysiology of prominent P. australis lineages and their responses to multiple forms of global change. Key findings of our review are that: (1 P. australis lineages are well-adapted to regions of their phylogeographic origin and therefore respond differently to changes in climatic conditions such as temperature or atmospheric CO2; (2 each lineage consists of populations that may occur in geographically different habitats and contain multiple genotypes; (3 the phenotypic plasticity of functional and fitness-related traits of a genotype determine the responses to global change factors; (4 genotypes with high plasticity to environmental drivers may acclimate or even vastly expand their ranges, genotypes of medium plasticity must acclimate or experience range-shifts, and those with low plasticity may face local extinction; (5 responses to ancillary types of global change, like shifting levels of soil salinity, flooding, and drought, are not consistent within lineages and depend on adaptation of individual genotypes. These patterns suggest that the diverse lineages of P. australis will undergo intense selective pressure in the face of global change such that the distributions and interactions of co-occurring lineages, as well as those of genotypes within-lineages, are very likely to be altered. We propose that the strong latitudinal clines within and between P. australis lineages can be a useful tool for predicting plant responses to climate change in general and present a conceptual framework for using P. australis lineages to predict plant responses

Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

Science.gov (United States)

Ginsberg, H.S.

2002-01-01

Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

Nitrogen leaching from natural ecosystems under global change: a modelling study

Science.gov (United States)

Braakhekke, Maarten C.; Rebel, Karin T.; Dekker, Stefan C.; Smith, Benjamin; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Wassen, Martin J.

2017-12-01

To study global nitrogen (N) leaching from natural ecosystems under changing N deposition, climate, and atmospheric CO2, we performed a factorial model experiment for the period 1901-2006 with the N-enabled global terrestrial ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator). In eight global simulations, we used either the true transient time series of N deposition, climate, and atmospheric CO2 as input or kept combinations of these drivers constant at initial values. The results show that N deposition is globally the strongest driver of simulated N leaching, individually causing an increase of 88 % by 1997-2006 relative to pre-industrial conditions. Climate change led globally to a 31 % increase in N leaching, but the size and direction of change varied among global regions: leaching generally increased in regions with high soil organic carbon storage and high initial N status, and decreased in regions with a positive trend in vegetation productivity or decreasing precipitation. Rising atmospheric CO2 generally caused decreased N leaching (33 % globally), with strongest effects in regions with high productivity and N availability. All drivers combined resulted in a rise of N leaching by 73 % with strongest increases in Europe, eastern North America and South-East Asia, where N deposition rates are highest. Decreases in N leaching were predicted for the Amazon and northern India. We further found that N loss by fire regionally is a large term in the N budget, associated with lower N leaching, particularly in semi-arid biomes. Predicted global N leaching from natural lands rose from 13.6 Tg N yr-1 in 1901-1911 to 18.5 Tg N yr-1 in 1997-2006, accounting for reductions of natural land cover. Ecosystem N status (quantified as the reduction of vegetation productivity due to N limitation) shows a similar positive temporal trend but large spatial variability. Interestingly, this variability is more strongly related to vegetation type than N input

Maize production in terms of global climate changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bekavac Goran

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Climate changes and expected variability of climatic parameters represent a serious concern of the 21st century agriculture. At the global level, the further rise in temperature, changed quantity and distribution of precipitation, increased variability of climate parameters and the occurrence of extreme climate events are expected. In order to avoid, or at least reduce the negative effects of global climate change, several adaptation strategies are proposed. Adjustment of production technology and breeding for tolerance to changed environment are proposed as two most important adaptation measures.

Global Climate Change and Society: Scientific, Policy, and Philosophic Themes

Science.gov (United States)

Frodeman, R.; Bullock, M. A.

2001-12-01

The summer of 2001 saw the inauguration of the Global Climate Change and Society Program (GCCS), an eight week, NSF-funded experiment in undergraduate pedagogy held at the University of Colorado and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Acknowledging from the start that climate change is more than a scientific problem, GCCS began with the simultaneous study of basic atmospheric physics, classical and environmental philosophy, and public policy. In addition to lectures and discussions on these subjects, our twelve undergraduates (majoring in the physical sciences, social sciences, and humanities) also participated in internships with scholars and researchers at NCAR, University of Colorado's Center of the American West, and the Colorado School of Mines, on specific issues in atmospheric science, science policy, and ethics and values. This talk will discuss the outcomes of GCCS: specifically, new insights into interdisciplinary pedagogy and the student creation of an extraordinary "deliverable," a group summary assessment of the global climate change debate. The student assessment called for an integrated discussion of both the science of climate change and the human values related to how we inhabit the world. The problems facing society today cannot be addressed through the single-minded adherence to science and technology; instead, society must develop new means of integrating the humanities and science in a meaningful dialogue about our common future.

Global Climate Change: Threat Multiplier for AFRICOM?

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Yackle, Terri A

2007-01-01

.... Whatever the catalyst for this abrupt climate change, stability for Africa hinges upon mitigating the effects of global climate change to prevent future conflicts such as Darfur, and the instability...

Impact of Geological Changes on Regional and Global Economies

Science.gov (United States)

Tatiana, Skufina; Peter, Skuf'in; Vera, Samarina; Taisiya, Shatalova; Baranov, Sergey

2017-04-01

Periods of geological changes such as super continent cycle (300-500 million years), Wilson's cycles (300-900 million years), magmatic-tectonic cycle (150-200 million years), and cycles with smaller periods (22, 100, 1000 years) lead to a basic contradiction preventing forming methodology of the study of impact of geological changes on the global and regional economies. The reason of this contradiction is the differences of theoretical and methodological aspects of the Earth science and economics such as different time scales and accuracy of geological changes. At the present the geological models cannot provide accurate estimation of time and place where geological changes (strong earthquakes, volcanos) are expected. Places of feature (not next) catastrophic events are the only thing we have known. Thus, it is impossible to use the periodicity to estimate both geological changes and their consequences. Taking into accounts these factors we suggested a collection of concepts for estimating impact of possible geological changes on regional and global economies. We illustrated our approach by example of estimating impact of Tohoku earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 on regional and global economies. Based on this example we concluded that globalization processes increase an impact of geological changes on regional and global levels. The research is supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Projects No. 16-06-00056, 16-32-00019, 16-05-00263A).

Dryland photoautotrophic soil surface communities endangered by global change

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez-Caballero, Emilio; Belnap, Jayne; Büdel, Burkhard; Crutzen, Paul J.; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Pöschl, Ulrich; Weber, Bettina

2018-03-01

Photoautotrophic surface communities forming biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are crucial for soil stability as well as water, nutrient and trace gas cycling at regional and global scales. Quantitative information on their global coverage and the environmental factors driving their distribution patterns, however, are not readily available. We use observations and environmental modelling to estimate the global distribution of biocrusts and their response to global change using future projected scenarios. We find that biocrusts currently covering approximately 12% of Earth's terrestrial surface will decrease by about 25-40% within 65 years due to anthropogenically caused climate change and land-use intensification, responding far more drastically than vascular plants. Our results illustrate that current biocrust occurrence is mainly driven by a combination of precipitation, temperature and land management, and future changes are expected to be affected by land-use and climate change in similar proportion. The predicted loss of biocrusts may substantially reduce the microbial contribution to nitrogen cycling and enhance the emissions of soil dust, which affects the functioning of ecosystems as well as human health and should be considered in the modelling, mitigation and management of global change.

Dryland photoautotrophic soil surface communities endangered by global change

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez-Caballero, Emilio; Belnap, Jayne; Büdel, Burkhard; Crutzen, Paul J.; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Pöschl, Ulrich; Weber, Bettina

2018-01-01

Photoautotrophic surface communities forming biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are crucial for soil stability as well as water, nutrient and trace gas cycling at regional and global scales. Quantitative information on their global coverage and the environmental factors driving their distribution patterns, however, are not readily available. We use observations and environmental modelling to estimate the global distribution of biocrusts and their response to global change using future projected scenarios. We find that biocrusts currently covering approximately 12% of Earth’s terrestrial surface will decrease by about 25–40% within 65 years due to anthropogenically caused climate change and land-use intensification, responding far more drastically than vascular plants. Our results illustrate that current biocrust occurrence is mainly driven by a combination of precipitation, temperature and land management, and future changes are expected to be affected by land-use and climate change in similar proportion. The predicted loss of biocrusts may substantially reduce the microbial contribution to nitrogen cycling and enhance the emissions of soil dust, which affects the functioning of ecosystems as well as human health and should be considered in the modelling, mitigation and management of global change.

Japanese experience of evolving nurses' roles in changing social contexts.

Science.gov (United States)

Kanbara, S; Yamamoto, Y; Sugishita, T; Nakasa, T; Moriguchi, I

2017-06-01

To discuss the evolving roles of Japanese nurses in meeting the goals and concerns of ongoing global sustainable development. Japanese nurses' roles have evolved as the needs of the country and the communities they served, changed over time. The comprehensive public healthcare services in Japan were provided by the cooperation of hospitals and public health nurses. The nursing profession is exploring ways to identify and systemize nursing skills and competencies that address global health initiatives for sustainable development goals. This paper is based on the summary of a symposium, (part of the 2015 annual meeting of the Japan Association for International Health) with panel members including experts from Japan's Official Development Assistance. The evolving role of nurses in response to national and international needs is illustrated by nursing practices from Japan. Japanese public health nurses have also assisted overseas healthcare plans. In recent catastrophes, Japanese nurses assumed the roles of community health coordinators for restoration and maintenance of public health. The Japanese experience shows that nursing professionals are best placed to work with community health issues, high-risk situations and vulnerable communities. Their cooperation can address current social needs and help global communities to transform our world. Nurses have tremendous potential to make transformative changes in health and bring about the necessary paradigm shift. They must be involved in global sustainable development goals, health policies and disaster risk management. A mutual understanding of global citizen and nurses will help to renew and strengthen their capacities. Nursing professionals can contribute effectively to achieve national and global health goals and make transformative changes. © 2017 International Council of Nurses.

Estimating the Global Agricultural Impact of Solar Radiation Management using Volcanic Eruptions as Natural Experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Proctor, J.; Hsiang, S. M.; Burney, J. A.; Burke, M.; Schlenker, W.

2017-12-01

Solar radiation management (SRM) is increasingly considered an option for managing global temperatures, yet the economic impacts of ameliorating climatic changes by scattering sunlight back to space remain largely unknown. Though SRM may increase crop yields by reducing heat stress, its impacts from concomitant changes in available sunlight have never been empirically estimated. Here we use the volcanic eruptions that inspired modern SRM proposals as natural experiments to provide the first estimates of how the stratospheric sulfate aerosols (SS) created by the eruptions of El Chichon and Pinatubo altered the quantity and quality of global sunlight, how those changes in sunlight impacted global crop yields, and the total effect that SS may have on yields in an SRM scenario when the climatic and sunlight effects are jointly considered. We find that the sunlight-mediated impact of SS on yields is negative for both C4 (maize) and C3 (soy, rice, wheat) crops. Applying our yield model to a geoengineering scenario using SS-based SRM from 2050-2069, we find that SRM damages due to scattering sunlight are roughly equal in magnitude to SRM benefits from cooling. This suggests that SRM - if deployed using SS similar to those emitted by the volcanic eruptions it seeks to mimic - would attenuate little of the damages from climate change to global agriculture on net. Our approach could be extended to study SRM impacts on other global systems, such as human health or ecosystem function.

Aspen Global Change Institute Summer Science Sessions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Katzenberger, John; Kaye, Jack A

2006-10-01

The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) successfully organized and convened six interdisciplinary meetings over the course of award NNG04GA21G. The topics of the meetings were consistent with a range of issues, goals and objectives as described within the NASA Earth Science Enterprise Strategic Plan and more broadly by the US Global Change Research Program/Our Changing Planet, the more recent Climate Change Program Strategic Plan and the NSF Pathways report. The meetings were chaired by two or more leaders from within the disciplinary focus of each session. 222 scholars for a total of 1097 participants-days were convened under the auspices of this award. The overall goal of each AGCI session is to further the understanding of Earth system science and global environmental change through interdisciplinary dialog. The format and structure of the meetings allows for presentation by each participant, in-depth discussion by the whole group, and smaller working group and synthesis activities. The size of the group is important in terms of the group dynamics and interaction, and the ability for each participant's work to be adequately presented and discussed within the duration of the meeting, while still allowing time for synthesis

Solar influences on global change

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Board on Global Change, National Research Council

..., but significant uncertainties remain. This book addresses current monitoring and understanding of solar influences on both the climate system and the ozone layer and prioritizes the research effort that will be needed to provide a sound scientific basis for policymaking related to global change issues.

Impact of three global change drivers on a Mediterranean shrub.

Science.gov (United States)

Matesanz, Silvia; Escudero, Adrián; Valladares, Fernando

2009-09-01

Global change is not restricted to climate change, and plant species generally face multiple human-driven disturbances constraining their viability. Most importantly, interactions among these drivers frequently generate nonadditive effects that cannot be predicted based on single-factor studies. Our goal was to assess the joint effects of three global change drivers that are especially relevant in Mediterranean ecosystems, namely, fragmentation, reduced habitat quality, and climate change on Centaurea hyssopifolia, a gypsum specialist plant. We carried out a two-year study (2005-2006) in natural populations of this plant in large (>11 ha) and small (< 1.5 ha) fragments. Within each fragment, we identified areas of contrasting habitat quality as revealed by plant cover and nutrient content, and within each combination of habitat quality and fragment size we performed a rainfall manipulation experiment simulating the most likely future climate scenario for the region. Survival, growth, phenology, and reproductive success of selected plants were monitored. The three drivers profoundly affected responses of Centaurea hyssopifolia in both study years, phenology being mainly affected by changes in habitat quality and reductions in rainfall and reproductive traits being mainly affected by fragmentation. Plants in sites of poor habitat quality and plants in the dry treatment advanced most of their phenophases (flowering and dispersing earlier) and showed reduced growth rate and increased fraction of senescent leaves. Plants growing in small fragments had lower survival, lower number of viable seeds, and a reduced seed set compared to those from large fragments. We found significant synergistic interactions among drivers. For example, the interaction between fragmentation and habitat quality led to lower survival and lower relative growth in plants from small and poor-quality habitat sites. Our results highlight the importance of studies addressing simultaneously all

Acidic deposition and global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nikolaidis, N.P.; Ecsedy, C.; Olem, H.; Nikolaidis, V.S.

1990-01-01

A literature is presented which examines the research published on understanding ecosystem acidification and the effects of acidic deposition on freshwaters. Topics of discussion include the following: acidic deposition; regional assessments; atmospheric deposition and transport; aquatic effects; mathematical modeling; liming acidic waters; global climate change; atmospheric changes; climate feedbacks; and aquatic effects

Decadal Changes in Global Ocean Annual Primary Production

Science.gov (United States)

Gregg, Watson; Conkright, Margarita E.; Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Ginoux, Paul; Casey, Nancy W.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) has produced the first multi-year time series of global ocean chlorophyll observations since the demise of the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) in 1986. Global observations from 1997-present from SeaWiFS combined with observations from 1979-1986 from the CZCS should in principle provide an opportunity to observe decadal changes in global ocean annual primary production, since chlorophyll is the primary driver for estimates of primary production. However, incompatibilities between algorithms have so far precluded quantitative analysis. We have developed and applied compatible processing methods for the CZCS, using modern advances in atmospheric correction and consistent bio-optical algorithms to advance the CZCS archive to comparable quality with SeaWiFS. We applied blending methodologies, where in situ data observations are incorporated into the CZCS and SeaWiFS data records, to provide improvement of the residuals. These re-analyzed, blended data records provide maximum compatibility and permit, for the first time, a quantitative analysis of the changes in global ocean primary production in the early-to-mid 1980's and the present, using synoptic satellite observations. An intercomparison of the global and regional primary production from these blended satellite observations is important to understand global climate change and the effects on ocean biota. Photosynthesis by chlorophyll-containing phytoplankton is responsible for biotic uptake of carbon in the oceans and potentially ultimately from the atmosphere. Global ocean annual primary decreased from the CZCS record to SeaWiFS, by nearly 6% from the early 1980s to the present. Annual primary production in the high latitudes was responsible for most of the decadal change. Conversely, primary production in the low latitudes generally increased, with the exception of the tropical Pacific. The differences and similarities of the two data records provide evidence

Potential global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1994-01-01

Global economic integration and growth contribute much to the construction of energy plants, vehicles and other industrial products that produces carbon emission and in effect cause the destruction of the environment. A coordinated policy and response worldwide to curb emissions and to effect global climate change must be introduced. Improvement in scientific understanding is required to monitor how much emission reduction is necessary. In the near term, especially in the next seven years, sustained research and development for low carbon or carbon-free energy is necessary. Other measures must also be introduced, such as limiting the use of vehicles, closing down inefficient power plants, etc. In the long term, the use of the electric car, use solar energy, etc. is required. Reforestation must also be considered to absorb large amounts of carbon in the atmosphere

Global but fair. Controvert the climatic change, allow development; Global aber gerecht. Klimawandel bekaempfen, Entwicklung ermoeglichen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2010-07-01

The book includes the following chapters: global but fair: climate compatible development for everybody; climatic change consequences und vulnerabilities; ethic dimension: fairness in the context of climatic change and poverty; options and challenges for emissions abatement; options for the adaptation to the climatic change; global deal for climate and development policy; convert the climatic change, allow development: ten political messages.

Climate change and global warming potentials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vate, J.F. van de

1996-01-01

Climate change and the global budgets of the two main energy consumption related greenhouse gases, CO 2 and CH 4 , are discussed. The global warming potential (GWP) of the non-CO 2 greenhouse gases is defined and the large range of GWPs of CH 4 in the literature is discussed. GWPs are expected to play an important role in energy policies and negotiations concerning lowering greenhouse gas emissions. (author). 20 refs, 4 figs, 4 tabs

Homepage for the Global Tropospheric Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, Eugene

1995-01-01

The objective of my NASA summer research project was to create a homepage to describe and present results from the NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment (GTE). The GTE is a major component of NASA's Tropospheric Chemistry Program and is managed in the Atmospheric Studies Branch, Atmospheric Sciences Division at the NASA Langley Research Center.

Providing Global Change Information for Decision-Making: Capturing and Presenting Provenance

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Xiaogang; Fox, Peter; Tilmes, Curt; Jacobs, Katherine; Waple, Anne

2014-01-01

Global change information demands access to data sources and well-documented provenance to provide evidence needed to build confidence in scientific conclusions and, in specific applications, to ensure the information's suitability for use in decision-making. A new generation of Web technology, the Semantic Web, provides tools for that purpose. The topic of global change covers changes in the global environment (including alterations in climate, land productivity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric composition and or chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life and support human systems. Data and findings associated with global change research are of great public, government, and academic concern and are used in policy and decision-making, which makes the provenance of global change information especially important. In addition, since different types of decisions benefit from different types of information, understanding how to capture and present the provenance of global change information is becoming more of an imperative in adaptive planning.

Global vs climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watson, H.L.; Bach, M.C.; Goklany, I.M.

1991-01-01

The various agents of global change that will affect the state of natural resources 50-100 years from now are discussed. These include economic and population growth, technological progress, and climatic change. The importance of climatic change lies in its effects on natural resources and on human activities that depend on those resources. Other factors affecting those resources include the demand on those resources from an increasing population and from a growing economy, and a more efficient use of those resources that comes from technological changes and from the consequences of economic growth itself. It is shown that there is a considerable ability to adapt to climatic change, since humans already have an intrinsic ability to adapt to the wide variations in climates that already exist and since technological developments can make it easier to cope with climatic variability. It appears that agents other than climatic change are more significant to the future state of natural resources than climatic change. Criteria for selecting options for addressing climatic change are outlined. Technological change and economic growth are seen to be key response options, since the vulnerability to climatic change depends on economic resources and technological progress. Specific options to stimulate sustainable economic growth and technological progress are listed. 16 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

White House Conference on Global Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1993-11-01

President Clinton has directed the White House office on Environmental Policy to coordinate an interagency process to develop a plan to fulfill the commitment he made in his Earth Day address on April 21, 1993. This plan will become the cornerstone of the Climate Change Plan that will be completed shortly after the Rio Accord enters into force. The Office on Environmental Policy established the Interagency Climate Change Mitigation Group to draw on the expertise of federal agencies including the National Economic Council; the Council of Economic Advisors; the Office of Science and Technology Policy; the Office of Management and Budget; the National Security Council; the Domestic Policy Council; the Environmental Protection Agency; and the Departments of Energy, Transportation, Agriculture, Interior, Treasury, Commerce, and State. Working groups have been established to examine six key policy areas: energy demand, energy supply, joint implementation, methane and other gases, sinks, and transportation. The purpose of the White House Conference on Global Climate Change was to ``tap the real-world experiences`` of diverse participants and seek ideas and information for meeting the President`s goals. During the opening session, senior administration officials defined the challenge ahead and encouraged open and frank conversation about the best possible ways to meet it.

Provenance Representation in the Global Change Information System (GCIS)

Science.gov (United States)

Tilmes, Curt

2012-01-01

Global climate change is a topic that has become very controversial despite strong support within the scientific community. It is common for agencies releasing information about climate change to be served with Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests for everything that led to that conclusion. Capturing and presenting the provenance, linking to the research papers, data sets, models, analyses, observation instruments and satellites, etc. supporting key findings has the potential to mitigate skepticism in this domain. The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is now coordinating the production of a National Climate Assessment (NCA) that presents our best understanding of global change. We are now developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will present the content of that report and its provenance, including the scientific support for the findings of the assessment. We are using an approach that will present this information both through a human accessible web site as well as a machine readable interface for automated mining of the provenance graph. We plan to use the developing W3C PROV Data Model and Ontology for this system.

A global conservation system for climate-change adaptation.

Science.gov (United States)

Hannah, Lee

2010-02-01

Climate change has created the need for a new strategic framework for conservation. This framework needs to include new protected areas that account for species range shifts and management that addresses large-scale change across international borders. Actions within the framework must be effective in international waters and across political frontiers and have the ability to accommodate large income and ability-to-pay discrepancies between countries. A global protected-area system responds to these needs. A fully implemented global system of protected areas will help in the transition to a new conservation paradigm robust to climate change and will ensure the integrity of the climate services provided by carbon sequestration from the world's natural habitats. The internationally coordinated response to climate change afforded by such a system could have significant cost savings relative to a system of climate adaptation that unfolds solely at a country level. Implementation of a global system is needed very soon because the effects of climate change on species and ecosystems are already well underway.

Climate change and global crop yield: impacts, uncertainties and adaptation

OpenAIRE

Deryng, Delphine

2014-01-01

As global mean temperature continues to rise steadily, agricultural systems are projected to face unprecedented challenges to cope with climate change. However, understanding of climate change impacts on global crop yield, and of farmers’ adaptive capacity, remains incomplete as previous global assessments: (1) inadequately evaluated the role of extreme weather events; (2) focused on a small subset of the full range of climate change predictions; (3) overlooked uncertainties related to the ch...

Integrated regional assessment of global climatic change. Lessons from the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cohen, Stewart J.

1996-01-01

This paper outlines the potential role integrated regional assessments of global climatic change scenarios could play in building better links between science and related policy concerns. The concept is illustrated through description of an ongoing case study from Canada-the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS). As part of the Government of Canada's Green Plan, the Global Warming Science Program includes a study of regional impacts of global warming scenarios in the Mackenzie Basin, located in northwestern Canada. The MBIS is a six-year program focussing on potential climate-induced changes in the land and water resource base, and the implications of four scenarios of global climatic change on land use and economic policies in this region. These policy issues include interjurisdictional water management, sustainability of native lifestyles, economic development opportunities (agriculture, forestry, tourism, etc.), sustainability of ecosystems and infrastructure maintenance. MBIS is due to be completed in 1997. MBIS represents an attempt to address regional impacts by incorporating a 'family of integrators' into the study framework, and by directly involving stakeholders in planning and research activities. The experience in organizing and carrying out this project may provide some lessons for others interested in organizing regional or country studies

Global change and paraglacial morphodynamic modification in Svalbard

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lafly, D.; Mercier, D.

2000-01-01

The study of glaciers is a good means by which to determine the impact of global climatic change. Svalbard is an area located in the polar oceanic environment that records contemporary global climatic change with acute sensitivity through the paraglacial process called runoff, which is considered to be the most effective erosional process, relegating glacial and periglacial processes to a lesser level of influence. This study introduced the method of cartography and field data acquisition through systematic non-aligned surveys to determine changes in glacial morphology. A large prograding shoreline was observed at the down side of sand dunes, which gain ground over the space occupied by the fjords because of a large amount of sediment. These sediments are carried by flowing water that feeds off glacier meltwater, following climatic global change. The study showed that remote sensing makes it possible to map landscapes while still taking into account certain aspects of their dynamics. 27 refs., 10 figs

European climate change experiments on precipitation change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beier, Claus

Presentation of European activities and networks related to experiments and databases within precipitation change......Presentation of European activities and networks related to experiments and databases within precipitation change...

Monitoring global change: a selection of examples

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

CSIR, Natural Resources and Environment

2008-02-01

Full Text Available The reality of global change (including climate change) has gripped the imaginations of movie moguls, graced the agendas of international organisations such as the United Nations, and now also receives prominent attention from the international...

Our changing planet: The FY 1994 US Global Change Research Program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

The approach of the US Global Change Research Program recognizes the profound economic and social implications of responding to global envirorunental changes and advances US leadership on this issue. The report outlines a careful blend of ground- and space-based efforts in research, data gathering, and modeling activities, as well as economic research, with both near- and long-term scientific and public policy benefits. In FY 1994, the Program will add an explicit focus on assessment, seeking to improve our understanding of the state of scientific knowledge and the implications of that knowledge for national and international policymaking activities

Our changing planet: The FY 1994 US Global Change Research Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1993-09-01

The approach of the US Global Change Research Program recognizes the profound economic and social implications of responding to global envirorunental changes and advances US leadership on this issue. The report outlines a careful blend of ground- and space-based efforts in research, data gathering, and modeling activities, as well as economic research, with both near- and long-term scientific and public policy benefits. In FY 1994, the Program will add an explicit focus on assessment, seeking to improve our understanding of the state of scientific knowledge and the implications of that knowledge for national and international policymaking activities.

Improving models to predict phenological responses to global change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Richardson, Andrew D. [Harvard College, Cambridge, MA (United States)

2015-11-25

The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digital cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.

The evolution of global disaster risk assessments: from hazard to global change

Science.gov (United States)

Peduzzi, Pascal

2013-04-01

The perception of disaster risk as a dynamic process interlinked with global change is a fairly recent concept. It gradually emerged as an evolution from new scientific theories, currents of thinking and lessons learned from large disasters since the 1970s. The interest was further heighten, in the mid-1980s, by the Chernobyl nuclear accident and the discovery of the ozone layer hole, both bringing awareness that dangerous hazards can generate global impacts. The creation of the UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) and the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990 reinforced the interest for global risk assessment. First global risk models including hazard, exposure and vulnerability components were available since mid-2000s. Since then increased computation power and more refined datasets resolution, led to more numerous and sophisticated global risk models. This article presents a recent history of global disaster risk models, the current status of researches for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR 2013) and future challenges and limitations for the development of next generation global disaster risk models.

Forest Service Global Change Research Strategy, 2009-2019 Implementation Plan

Science.gov (United States)

Allen Solomon; Richard A. Birdsey; Linda A. Joyce

2010-01-01

In keeping with the research goals of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, the climate change strategy of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the climate change framework of the Forest Service, this Forest Service Global Change Research Strategy, 2009-2019 Implementation Plan (hereafter called the Research Plan), was written by Forest Service Research...

Carbon Dioxide and Global Warming: A Failed Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Ribeiro, Carla

2014-01-01

Global warming is a current environmental issue that has been linked to an increase in anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. To raise awareness of the problem, various simple experiments have been proposed to demonstrate the effect of carbon dioxide on the planet's temperature. This article describes a similar experiment, which…

An assessment of global meteorological droughts based on HAPPI experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho; Zhang, Jie

2017-04-01

Droughts caused water shortages could lead to serious consequences on the socioeconomic and environmental well-being. In the context of changing climate, droughts monitoring, attributions and impact assessments have been performed using observations (e.g., Sun et al., 2012; Zhang et al., 2016) and climate model projections (e.g., Liu et al., 2016, 2017); with expectation that such scientific knowledge would feed into long-term adaptation and mitigation plans to tackle potentially unfavorable future drought impacts in a warming world. Inspired by the 2015 Paris Agreement, the HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts) experiments were set up to better inform international policymakers about the socioeconomic and environmental impacts under less severe global warming conditions. This study aims to understand the potential shift in meteorological droughts from the past into the future on a global scale. Based on the HAPPI data, we evaluate the change in drought related indices (i.e., PET/P, PDSI) from the past to the future scenarios (1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius warming). Here we present some early results (MIROC5 as demonstration) on identified hotspots and discuss the differences in severity of droughts between these warming worlds and associated consequences. References: Liu W, and Sun F, 2017. Projecting and attributing future changes of evaporative demand over China in CMIP5 climate models, Journal of Hydrometeorology, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0204.1 Liu W, and Sun F, 2016. Assessing estimates of evaporative demand in climate models using observed pan evaporation over China. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmosphere 121, 8329-8349 Zhang J, Sun F, Xu J, Chen Y, Sang Y, -F, and Liu C, 2016. Dependence of trends in and sensitivity of drought over China (1961-2013) on potential evaporation model. Geophysical Research Letters 43, 206-213 Sun F, Roderick M, Farquhar G, 2012. Changes in the variability of global land precipitation

GLOBEC: Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics: A component of the US Global Change Research Program

Science.gov (United States)

1991-01-01

GLOBEC (GLOBal ocean ECosystems dynamics) is a research initiative proposed by the oceanographic and fisheries communities to address the question of how changes in global environment are expected to affect the abundance and production of animals in the sea. The approach to this problem is to develop a fundamental understanding of the mechanisms that determine both the abundance of key marine animal populations and their variances in space and time. The assumption is that the physical environment is a major contributor to patterns of abundance and production of marine animals, in large part because the planktonic life stages typical of most marine animals are intrinsically at the mercy of the fluid motions of the medium in which they live. Consequently, the authors reason that a logical approach to predicting the potential impact of a globally changing environment is to understand how the physical environment, both directly and indirectly, contributes to animal abundance and its variability in marine ecosystems. The plans for this coordinated study of of the potential impact of global change on ocean ecosystems dynamics are discussed.

Dryland responses to global change suggest the potential for rapid non-linear responses to some changes but resilience to others

Science.gov (United States)

Reed, S.; Ferrenberg, S.; Tucker, C.; Rutherford, W. A.; Wertin, T. M.; McHugh, T. A.; Morrissey, E.; Kuske, C.; Belnap, J.

2017-12-01

Drylands represent our planet's largest terrestrial biome, making up over 35% of Earth's land surface. In the context of this vast areal extent, it is no surprise that recent research suggests dryland inter-annual variability and responses to change have the potential to drive biogeochemical cycles and climate at the global-scale. Further, the data we do have suggest drylands can respond rapidly and non-linearly to change. Nevertheless, our understanding of the cross-system consistency of and mechanisms behind dryland responses to a changed environment remains relatively poor. This poor understanding hinders not only our larger understanding of terrestrial ecosystem function, but also our capacity to forecast future global biogeochemical cycles and climate. Here we present data from a series of Colorado Plateau manipulation experiments - including climate, land use, and nitrogen deposition manipulations - to explore how vascular plants, microbial communities, and biological soil crusts (a community of mosses, lichens, and/or cyanobacteria living in the interspace among vascular plants in arid and semiarid ecosystems worldwide) respond to a host of environmental changes. These responses include not only assessments of community composition, but of their function as well. We will explore photosynthesis, net soil CO2 exchange, soil carbon stocks and chemistry, albedo, and nutrient cycling. The experiments were begun with independent questions and cover a range of environmental change drivers and scientific approaches, but together offer a relatively holistic picture of how some drylands can change their structure and function in response to change. In particular, the data show very high ecosystem vulnerability to particular drivers, but surprising resilience to others, suggesting a multi-faceted response of these diverse systems.

Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alcamo, J.; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Bollen, J.C.; Born, G.J. van den; Krol, M.S.; Toet, A.M.C.; Vries, H.J.M. de; Gerlagh, R.

1996-01-01

This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. (author)

Biocrusts in the context of global change

Science.gov (United States)

Reed, Sasha C.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Ochoa-Hueso, Raul; Kuske, Cheryl; Darrouzet-Nardi, Anthony N.; Darby, Brian; Sinsabaugh, Bob; Oliver, Mel; Sancho, Leo; Belnap, Jayne

2016-01-01

A wide range of studies show global environmental change will profoundly affect the structure, function, and dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. The research synthesized here underscores that biocrust communities are also likely to respond significantly to global change drivers, with a large potential for modification to their abundance, composition, and function. We examine how elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate change (increased temperature and altered precipitation), and nitrogen deposition affect biocrusts and the ecosystems they inhabit. We integrate experimental and observational data, as well as physiological, community ecology, and biogeochemical perspectives. Taken together, these data highlight the potential for biocrust organisms to respond dramatically to environmental change and show how changes to biocrust community composition translate into effects on ecosystem function (e.g., carbon and nutrient cycling, soil stability, energy balance). Due to the importance of biocrusts in regulating dryland ecosystem processes and the potential for large modifications to biocrust communities, an improved understanding and predictive capacity regarding biocrust responses to environmental change are of scientific and societal relevance.

Land Use Change and Global Adaptations to Climate Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roxana Juliá

2013-12-01

Full Text Available This paper uses the World Trade Model with Climate Sensitive Land (WTMCL to evaluate possible future land-use changes associated with adaptations to climate change in a globalized world. In this approach, changes in regional agricultural production, which are based on comparative advantage, define patterns of land use change in agriculture in all regions of the world. We evaluate four scenarios that combine assumptions about future increases in food demand and future changes in land endowments of different productivities associated with climatic conditions: each scenario generates distinct patterns of regional specialization in the production of agricultural commodities and associated land-use change. The analysis also projects future food availability under the simulated conditions and the direction of likely changes in prices of the major agricultural commodity groups.

Global change impacts on mangrove ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

McKee, Karen L.

2004-01-01

Mangroves are tropical/subtropical communities of primarily tree species that grow in the intertidal zone. These tidal forests are important coastal ecosystems that are valued for a variety of ecological and societal goods and services. Major local threats to mangrove ecosystems worldwide include clearcutting and trimming of forests for urban, agricultural, or industrial expansion; hydrological alterations; toxic chemical spills; and eutrophication. In many countries with mangroves, much of the human population resides in the coastal zone, and their activities often negatively impact the integrity of mangrove forests. In addition, eutrophication, which is the process whereby nutrients build up to higher than normal levels in a natural system, is possibly one of the most serious threats to mangroves and associated ecosystems such as coral reefs. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the National Wetlands Research Center are working to more fully understand global impacts on these significant ecosystems.Changes in climate and other factors may also affect mangroves, but in complex ways. Global warming may promote expansion of mangrove forests to higher latitudes and accelerate sea-level rise through melting of polar ice or steric expansion of oceans. Changes in sea level would alter flooding patterns and the structure and areal extent of mangroves. Climate change may also alter rainfall patterns, which would in turn change local salinity regimes and competitive interactions of mangroves with other wetland species. Increases in frequency or intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes in combination with sea-level rise may alter erosion and sedimentation rates in mangrove forests. Another global change factor that may directly affect mangrove growth is increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), caused by burning of fossil fuels and other factors. Elevated CO2 concentration may increase mangrove growth by stimulating photosynthesis or improving water use

Using a Global Climate Model in an On-line Climate Change Course

Science.gov (United States)

Randle, D. E.; Chandler, M. A.; Sohl, L. E.

2012-12-01

Seminars on Science: Climate Change is an on-line, graduate-level teacher professional development course offered by the American Museum of Natural History. It is an intensive 6-week course covering a broad range of global climate topics, from the fundamentals of the climate system, to the causes of climate change, the role of paleoclimate investigations, and a discussion of potential consequences and risks. The instructional method blends essays, videos, textbooks, and linked websites, with required participation in electronic discussion forums that are moderated by an experienced educator and a course scientist. Most weeks include additional assignments. Three of these assignments employ computer models, including two weeks spent working with a full-fledged 3D global climate model (GCM). The global climate modeling environment is supplied through a partnership with Columbia University's Educational Global Climate Modeling Project (EdGCM). The objective is to have participants gain hands-on experience with one of the most important, yet misunderstood, aspects of climate change research. Participants in the course are supplied with a USB drive that includes installers for the software and sample data. The EdGCM software includes a version of NASA's global climate model fitted with a graphical user interface and pre-loaded with several climate change simulations. Step-by-step assignments and video tutorials help walk people through these challenging exercises and the course incorporates a special assignment discussion forum to help with technical problems and questions about the NASA GCM. There are several takeaways from our first year and a half of offering this course, which has become one of the most popular out of the twelve courses offered by the Museum. Participants report a high level of satisfaction in using EdGCM. Some report frustration at the initial steps, but overwhelmingly claim that the assignments are worth the effort. Many of the difficulties that

Biological consequences of global change for birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Møller, Anders Pape

2013-06-01

Climate is currently changing at an unprecedented rate; so also human exploitation is rapidly changing the Earth for agriculture, forestry, fisheries and urbanization. In addition, pollution has affected even the most remote ecosystems, as has the omnipresence of humans, with consequences in particular for animals that keep a safe distance from potential predators, including human beings. Importantly, all of these changes are occurring simultaneously, with increasing intensity, and further deterioration in both the short and the long-term is predicted. While the consequences of these components of global change are relatively well studied on their own, the effects of their interactions, such as the combined effects of climate change and agriculture, or the combined effects of agriculture through nutrient leakage to freshwater and marine ecosystems and fisheries, and the effects of climate change and urbanization, are poorly understood. Here, I provide a brief overview of the effects of climate change on phenology, diversity, abundance, interspecific interactions and population dynamics of birds. I address whether these effects of changing temperatures are direct, or indirect through effects of climate change on the phenology, distribution or abundance of food, parasites and predators. Finally, I review interactions between different components of global change. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

Linked Open Data in the Global Change Information System (GCIS)

Science.gov (United States)

Tilmes, Curt A.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Global Change Research Program (http://globalchange.gov) coordinates and integrates federal research on changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP is developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will centralize access to data and information related to global change across the U.S. federal government. The first implementation will focus on the 2013 National Climate Assessment (NCA) . (http://assessment.globalchange.gov) The NCA integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the USGCRP; analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. The NCA has received over 500 distinct technical inputs to the process, many of which are reports distilling and synthesizing even more information, coming from thousands of individuals around the federal, state and local governments, academic institutions and non-governmental organizations. The GCIS will present a web-based version of the NCA including annotations linking the findings and content of the NCA with the scientific research, datasets, models, observations, etc. that led to its conclusions. It will use semantic tagging and a linked data approach, assigning globally unique, persistent, resolvable identifiers to all of the related entities and capturing and presenting the relationships between them, both internally and referencing out to other linked data sources and back to agency data centers. The developing W3C PROV Data Model and ontology will be used to capture the provenance trail and present it in both human readable web pages and machine readable formats such as RDF and SPARQL. This will improve visibility into the assessment process, increase

Global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gugele, B.; Radunsky, K.; Spangl, W.

2002-01-01

In the last decade marked changes of climatic factors have been observed, such as increases in average global earth temperatures, the amount of precipitation and the number of extreme weather events. Green house gases influence the energy flow in the atmosphere by absorbing infra-red radiation. An overview of the Austrian greenhouse gas emissions is given, including statistical data and their major sources. In 1999 the emissions of all six Kyoto greenhouse gases ( CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, HFC s , PFC s and SF 6 ) amounted to 79.2 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalents . A comparison between the EC Members states is also presented. Finally the climate change strategy prepared by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management together with other ministries and the federal provinces is discussed, which main aim is to lead to an annual emission reduction of 16 million tonnes of CO 2 . Figs. 2, Tables 1. (nevyjel)

Global Equity Gauge Alliance: reflections on early experiences.

Science.gov (United States)

McCoy, David; Bambas, Lexi; Acurio, David; Baya, Banza; Bhuiya, Abbas; Chowdhury, A Mushtaque R; Grisurapong, Siriwan; Liu, Yuanli; Ngom, Pierre; Ngulube, Thabale J; Ntuli, Antoinette; Sanders, David; Vega, Jeanette; Shukla, Abhay; Braveman, Paula A

2003-09-01

The paper traces the evolution and working of the Global Equity Gauge Alliance (GEGA) and its efforts to promote health equity. GEGA places health equity squarely within a larger framework of social justice, linking findings on socioeconomic and health inequalities with differentials in power, wealth, and prestige in society. The Alliance's 11 country-level partners, called Equity Gauges, share a common action-based vision and framework called the Equity Gauge Strategy. An Equity Gauge seeks to reduce health inequities through three broad spheres of action, referred to as the 'pillars' of the Equity Gauge Strategy, which define a set of interconnected and overlapping actions. Measuring and tracking the inequalities and interpreting their ethical import are pursued through the Assessment and Monitoring pillar. This information provides an evidence base that can be used in strategic ways for influencing policy-makers through actions in the Advocacy pillar and for supporting grassroots groups and civil society through actions in the Community Empowerment pillar. The paper provides examples of strategies for promoting pro-equity policy and social change and reviews experiences and lessons, both in terms of technical success of interventions and in relation to the conceptual development and refinement of the Equity Gauge Strategy and overall direction of the Alliance. To become most effective in furthering health equity at both national and global levels, the Alliance must now reach out to and involve a wider range of organizations, groups, and actors at both national and international levels. Sustainability of this promising experiment depends, in part, on adequate resources but also on the ability to attract and develop talented leadership.

Biological diversity, ecology and global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jutro, P.R.

1991-01-01

Worldwide climate change and loss of biodiversity are issues of global scope and importance that have recently become subjects of considerable public concern. Their perceived threat lies in their potential to disrupt ecological functioning and stability rather than from any direct threat they may pose to human health. Over the last 5 years, the international scientific community and the general public have become aware of the implications that atmospheric warming might have for world climate patterns and the resulting changes in the persistence, location, and composition of ecosystems worldwide. Human activities are currently responsible for a species loss rate that is the most extreme in millions of years, and an alarmingly increasing rate of transformation and fragmentation of natural landscapes. In the case of both global warming and reduction of biological diversity, man is affecting nature in an unprecedented fashion, on a global scale, and with unpredictable and frequently irreversible results

Student Reflection Papers on a Global Clinical Experience: A Qualitative Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Margolis, Carmi Z; Rohrbaugh, Robert M; Tsang, Luisa; Fleischer, Jennifer; Graham, Mark J; Kellett, Anne; Hafler, Janet P

Many of the 70,000 graduating US medical students [per year] have reported participating in a global health activity at some stage of medical school. This case study design provided a method for understanding the student's experience that included student's learning about culture, health disparities, exposure and reaction to a range of diseases actually encountered. The broad diversity of themes among students indicated that the GCE provided a flexible, personalized experience. We need to understand the student's experience in order to help design appropriate curricular experiences [and valid student assessment]. Our research aim was to analyze medical student reflection papers to understand how they viewed their Global Clinical Experience (GCE). A qualitative case study design was used to analyze student reflection papers. All 28 students who participated in a GCE from 2008-2010 and in 2014-2015 and submitted a reflection paper on completion of the GCE were eligible to participate in the study. One student did not submit a reflection paper and was not included in the study. All 27 papers were coded by paragraph for reflection and for themes. System of Care/Range of Care was mentioned most often, Aids to Adjustment Process was mentioned least. The theme, "Diseases," referred to any mention of a disease in the reflection papers, and 44 diseases were mentioned in the papers. The analysis for depth of reflection yielded the following data: Observation, 81/248 paragraphs; Observation and Interpretation, 130/248 paragraphs; and Observation, Interpretation, and Suggestions for change, 36/248 paragraphs; 9 reflection papers contained 27 separate accounts of a transformational experience. This study provided a method for understanding the student's experience that included student's learning about culture, health disparities, and exposure and reaction to a range of diseases actually encountered. The broad diversity of themes among students indicated that the GCE provided a

Changing Foundations for Global Business Systems Solutions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Slepniov, Dmitrij; Wæhrens, Brian Vejrum; Gubi, Ebbe

2011-01-01

Companies are actively seeking new competitive advantages by changing the location and ownership of their manufacturing processes. This process results in increasing fragmentation and dispersion of global business systems of companies. The purpose of this paper is to identify how companies may...... improve the integration of such business systems. The paper draws on a case study of a Danish industrial equipment firm. The paper describes and analyzes the company’s operations network configurations, which lay at the foundations of the company’s global business system. It is demonstrated how...... the operations configurations have been changing over time and affecting the overall business system. The paper identifies the key determinants and outcomes of this change. Moreover, it proposes how the design of operations configurations can be improved through the development of a distinct systemic approach...

Soil bacterial community responses to global changes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bergmark, Lasse

competing and very contrasting plant types (Calluna and Deschampsia) dominated the vegetation. This led to Manuscript 3 where the impact and responses of the climate change manipulations on the microbial community composition was investigated under the contrasting vegetation types. Our results show a high......Soil bacteria and archaea are essential for ecosystem functioning and plant growth through their degradation of organic matter and turnover of nutrients. But since the majority of soil bacteria and archaea are unclassified and “nonculturable” the functionality of the microbial community and its...... overall importance for ecosystem function in soil is poorly understood. Global change factors may affect the diversity and functioning of soil prokaryotes and thereby ecosystem functioning. To gain a better understanding of the effects of global changes it is of fundamental importance to classify...

Wintertime urban heat island modified by global climate change over Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Hara, M.

2015-12-01

Urban thermal environment change, especially, surface air temperature (SAT) rise in metropolitan areas, is one of the major recent issues in urban areas. The urban thermal environmental change affects not only human health such as heat stroke, but also increasing infectious disease due to spreading out virus vectors habitat and increase of industry and house energy consumption. The SAT rise is mostly caused by global climate change and urban heat island (hereafter UHI) by urbanization. The population in Tokyo metropolitan area is over 30 millions and the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the biggest megacities in the world. The temperature rise due to urbanization seems comparable to the global climate change in the major megacities. It is important to project how the urbanization and the global climate change affect to the future change of urban thermal environment to plan the adaptation and mitigation policy. To predict future SAT change in urban scale, we should estimate future UHI modified by the global climate change. This study investigates change in UHI intensity (UHII) of major metropolitan areas in Japan by effects of the global climate change. We performed a series of climate simulations. Present climate simulations with and without urban process are conducted for ten seasons using a high-resolution numerical climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Future climate projections with and without urban process are also conducted. The future projections are performed using the pseudo global warming method, assuming 2050s' initial and boundary conditions estimated by a GCM under the RCP scenario. Simulation results indicated that UHII would be enhanced more than 30% in Tokyo during the night due to the global climate change. The enhancement of urban heat island is mostly caused by change of lower atmospheric stability.

The Global Control of the Virgo experiment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnaud, Nicolas; Arnault, Christian; Barsuglia, Matteo; Bizouard, Marie-Anne; Brisson, Violette; Cavalier, Fabien; Chiche, Ronic; Davier, Michel; Eder, Claude; Hello, Patrice; Heusse, Philippe; Kreckelbergh, Stephane; Mansoux, Bruno

2005-01-01

In order to detect gravitational waves, the kilometric interferometer Virgo needs an active control of the positions of the suspended optical components, keeping the detector at its working point. The constraints are about 10 -10 m RMS for the longitudinal control ('Locking') and 10 -9 rad RMS for the angular degrees of freedom ('Alignment'). A dedicated hardware and software named Global Control is in charge of the Locking and the Alignment loops for the Virgo experiment. This system has been designed to match the synchronization constraint and provide a flexible tool in order to easily integrate the various algorithms needed for the control of Virgo. This paper presents the technical requirements to be fulfilled by the Global Control. Then, the dedicated hardware is described and the overall architecture of the Global Control is shown

The global need for lived experience leadership.

Science.gov (United States)

Byrne, Louise; Stratford, Anthony; Davidson, Larry

2018-03-01

Common challenges and experiences of the lived experience/peer workforce globally are considered, with an emphasis on ensuring that future developments both protect and promote the unique lived experience perspective. In the Western world, rapid growth in lived experience roles has led to an urgent need for training and workforce development. However, research indicates the roles risk being coopted without clear lived experience leadership, which is often not occurring. In developing countries and in many Western contexts, the lived experience role has not yet been accepted within the mental health workforce. The need for lived experience leadership to guide these issues is highlighted. Peer-reviewed research, relevant gray literature, and professional experience in countries where little published material currently exists. A window of opportunity currently exists to maximize lived experience leadership, and that window may be closing fast if broad-based actions are not initiated now. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Human dimensions of global change: Toward a research agenda

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burton, I.

1991-01-01

The Earth's environment is being transformed by human activity. Human activity, in turn, is being affected by these transformations. This interaction is being studied under the aegis of global change in the geosphere-biosphere. The purpose here is to explore the basis for and the substance of a proposed research program focused on the human dimensions of global change. Global warming due to the greenhouse effect, CO2 reduction, environment impacts, land use management, and the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere are among the topics covered

The global climate change and its effect on power generation in Bangladesh

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khan, Iftekhar; Alam, Firoz; Alam, Quamrul

2013-01-01

Frequent and intense natural calamities, sea level rises and salinity have been causing adverse impacts on economic, environmental and social aspects of hundreds of millions people across the world. Although a series of studies was undertaken on social and environment impacts, very little information is available on power generation affected by climate change. The power generation in developing countries, especially Bangladesh, whose existence is severely threatened by the rise of sea levels, salinity, the ambient temperature, drought and flood, is not well studied and reported. Therefore, the primary objective of this study was to identify the risks imposed by global climate change on existing and projected power generation in Bangladesh. The climate effect parameters and their impacts on power generation capacity are studied and analysed. The findings indicate that all existing and future power plants and their generation across the country will be affected by global climate change. - Highlights: • Analysed the future climate change impact on power generation in Bangladesh. • Projected future power generation in Bangladesh up to 2100. • Power plant in coastal areas will experience threat of inundation and salinity. • Northwest region power generation in Bangladesh will face more drought threat. • Power generation in middle region of Bangladesh will be in high risk of flood

The Role of Musical Experience in Hemispheric Lateralization of Global and Local Auditory Processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Black, Emily; Stevenson, Jennifer L; Bish, Joel P

2017-08-01

The global precedence effect is a phenomenon in which global aspects of visual and auditory stimuli are processed before local aspects. Individuals with musical experience perform better on all aspects of auditory tasks compared with individuals with less musical experience. The hemispheric lateralization of this auditory processing is less well-defined. The present study aimed to replicate the global precedence effect with auditory stimuli and to explore the lateralization of global and local auditory processing in individuals with differing levels of musical experience. A total of 38 college students completed an auditory-directed attention task while electroencephalography was recorded. Individuals with low musical experience responded significantly faster and more accurately in global trials than in local trials regardless of condition, and significantly faster and more accurately when pitches traveled in the same direction (compatible condition) than when pitches traveled in two different directions (incompatible condition) consistent with a global precedence effect. In contrast, individuals with high musical experience showed less of a global precedence effect with regards to accuracy, but not in terms of reaction time, suggesting an increased ability to overcome global bias. Further, a difference in P300 latency between hemispheres was observed. These findings provide a preliminary neurological framework for auditory processing of individuals with differing degrees of musical experience.

Global Sensory Qualities and Aesthetic Experience in Music

Science.gov (United States)

Brattico, Pauli; Brattico, Elvira; Vuust, Peter

2017-01-01

A well-known tradition in the study of visual aesthetics holds that the experience of visual beauty is grounded in global computational or statistical properties of the stimulus, for example, scale-invariant Fourier spectrum or self-similarity. Some approaches rely on neural mechanisms, such as efficient computation, processing fluency, or the responsiveness of the cells in the primary visual cortex. These proposals are united by the fact that the contributing factors are hypothesized to be global (i.e., they concern the percept as a whole), formal or non-conceptual (i.e., they concern form instead of content), computational and/or statistical, and based on relatively low-level sensory properties. Here we consider that the study of aesthetic responses to music could benefit from the same approach. Thus, along with local features such as pitch, tuning, consonance/dissonance, harmony, timbre, or beat, also global sonic properties could be viewed as contributing toward creating an aesthetic musical experience. Several such properties are discussed and their neural implementation is reviewed in the light of recent advances in neuroaesthetics. PMID:28424573

Role of social science in global environmental change: case of urbanisation

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Njiro, E

2006-02-01

Full Text Available the role of social scientists in global environmental change by examining urbanisation and other environmental changes as suggested in the science plan of the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP 2005)...

A dissenting view on global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linden, H.R.

1993-01-01

Global warming alarmists are vastly overstating the risks of climate change, often to further other agendas. The science of global warming simply does not support their claims of impending doom - as policy makers would be wise to note. There is scientific consensus on the existence of a benign natural greenhouse effect that keeps the Earth habitable by raising its average surface temperature by about 33 degrees C. Global warming alarmists, however, have falsely claimed that this consensus also extends to the belief that human activity is significantly enhancing this effect. This is simply untrue. Based on a wealth of new information, there is now strong and rapidly growing scientific dissent on the inevitability of catastrophic and even mildly detrimental anthropogenic climate change. This casts serious doubts on the need for binding international agreements to curtail emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion, or to limit conversion of tropical forests to agricultural uses in areas where increased food supply is a critical issue

Hydrological impacts of global land cover change and human water use

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. H. C. Bosmans

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Human impacts on global terrestrial hydrology have been accelerating during the 20th century. These human impacts include the effects of reservoir building and human water use, as well as land cover change. To date, many global studies have focussed on human water use, but only a few focus on or include the impact of land cover change. Here we use PCR-GLOBWB, a combined global hydrological and water resources model, to assess the impacts of land cover change as well as human water use globally in different climatic zones. Our results show that land cover change has a strong effect on the global hydrological cycle, on the same order of magnitude as the effect of human water use (applying irrigation, abstracting water, for industrial use for example, including reservoirs, etc.. When globally averaged, changing the land cover from that of 1850 to that of 2000 increases discharge through reduced evapotranspiration. The effect of land cover change shows large spatial variability in magnitude and sign of change depending on, for example, the specific land cover change and climate zone. Overall, land cover effects on evapotranspiration are largest for the transition of tall natural vegetation to crops in energy-limited equatorial and warm temperate regions. In contrast, the inclusion of irrigation, water abstraction and reservoirs reduces global discharge through enhanced evaporation over irrigated areas and reservoirs as well as through water consumption. Hence, in some areas land cover change and water distribution both reduce discharge, while in other areas the effects may partly cancel out. The relative importance of both types of impacts varies spatially across climatic zones. From this study we conclude that land cover change needs to be considered when studying anthropogenic impacts on water resources.

U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Karl, T. R.

2009-12-01

This past year the US Global Change Research Program released a report that summarized the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. The report underscores the importance of measures to reduce climate change. In the context of impacts, the report identifies examples of actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change. This state-of-knowledge report also identifies areas in which scientific uncertainty limits our ability to estimate future climate changes and its impacts. Key findings of the report include: (1) Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human induced. - This statement is stronger than the IPCC (2007) statement because new attribution studies since that report continue to implicate human caused changes over the past 50 years. (2) Climate Changes are underway in the Unites States and are projected to grow. - These include increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons lengthening ice-free seasons in the oceans and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt and alteration in river flows. (3) Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. - The impacts vary from region to region, but are already affecting many sectors e.g., water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, etc. (4) Climate change will stress water resources. - Water is an issue in every region of the US, but the nature of the impacts vary (5) Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. - Warming related to high emission scenarios often negatively affect crop growth and yields levels. Increased pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crops and livestock production. (6) Coastal areas are at increased risk from

Global climate change impacts in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

2009-06-01

This report summarizes the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. It is largely based on results of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a and integrates those results wit...

Global change in marine ecosystems: implications for semi-enclosed Arabian seas

KAUST Repository

Duarte, Carlos M.

2015-12-07

Global Change has been defined as the impact of human activities on the key processes that determine the functioning of the Biosphere. Global Change is a major threat for marine ecosystems and includes climate change as well as other global impacts such as inputs of pollutants, overfishing and coastal sprawl. The Semi-enclosed Arabian Seas, including the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea, have supported human livelihoods in the Arabian Peninsula over centuries and continue to do so, but are also threatened by Global Change. These threats are particularly severe as Semi-enclosed Arabian Seas already present rather extreme conditions, in terms of temperature, salinity and oxygen concentration. The vulnerability of the unique marine ecosystems of the Semi-enclosed Arabian Seas to Global Change vectors is largely unknown, but predictions based on first principles suggest that they may be at or near the tipping point for many pressures, such as warming and hypoxia. There is an urgent need to implement international collaborative research programs to accelerate our understanding of the vulnerability of Semi-enclosed Arabian Seas to Global Change vectors in order to inform conservation and management plans to ensure these Seas continue to support the livelihoods and well-being of the Arab nations.

Understanding Global Change: Frameworks and Models for Teaching Systems Thinking

Science.gov (United States)

Bean, J. R.; Mitchell, K.; Zoehfeld, K.; Oshry, A.; Menicucci, A. J.; White, L. D.; Marshall, C. R.

2017-12-01

The scientific and education communities must impart to teachers, students, and the public an understanding of how the various factors that drive climate and global change operate, and why the rates and magnitudes of these changes related to human perturbation of Earth system processes today are cause for deep concern. Even though effective educational modules explaining components of the Earth and climate system exist, interdisciplinary learning tools are necessary to conceptually link the causes and consequences of global changes. To address this issue, the Understanding Global Change Project at the University of California Museum of Paleontology (UCMP) at UC Berkeley developed an interdisciplinary framework that organizes global change topics into three categories: (1) causes of climate change, both human and non-human (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, Earth's tilt and orbit), (2) Earth system processes that shape the way the Earth works (e.g., Earth's energy budget, water cycle), and (3) the measurable changes in the Earth system (e.g., temperature, precipitation, ocean acidification). To facilitate student learning about the Earth as a dynamic, interacting system, a website will provide visualizations of Earth system models and written descriptions of how each framework topic is conceptually linked to other components of the framework. These visualizations and textual summarizations of relationships and feedbacks in the Earth system are a unique and crucial contribution to science communication and education, informed by a team of interdisciplinary scientists and educators. The system models are also mechanisms by which scientists can communicate how their own work informs our understanding of the Earth system. Educators can provide context and relevancy for authentic datasets and concurrently can assess student understanding of the interconnectedness of global change phenomena. The UGC resources will be available through a web-based platform and

The Global Control of the Virgo experiment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arnaud, Nicolas [Laboratoire de l' Accelerateur Lineaire, CNRS-IN2P3 and Universite Paris Sud, Ba-hat timent 200, Campus d' Orsay, B.P. 34, 91898 Orsay Cedex (France); Arnault, Christian [Laboratoire de l' Accelerateur Lineaire, CNRS-IN2P3 and Universite Paris Sud, Ba-hat timent 200, Campus d' Orsay, B.P. 34, 91898 Orsay Cedex (France); Barsuglia, Matteo [Laboratoire de l' Accelerateur Lineaire, CNRS-IN2P3 and Universite Paris Sud, Ba-hat timent 200, Campus d' Orsay, B.P. 34, 91898 Orsay Cedex (France); Bizouard, Marie-Anne [Laboratoire de l' Accelerateur Lineaire, CNRS-IN2P3 and Universite Paris Sud, Ba-hat timent 200, Campus d' Orsay, B.P. 34, 91898 Orsay Cedex (France); Brisson, Violette [Laboratoire de l' Accelerateur Lineaire, CNRS-IN2P3 and Universite Paris Sud, Ba-hat timent 200, Campus d' Orsay, B.P. 34, 91898 Orsay Cedex (France); Cavalier, Fabien [Laboratoire de l' Accelerateur Lineaire, CNRS-IN2P3 and Universite Paris Sud, Ba-hat timent 200, Campus d' Orsay, B.P. 34, 91898 Orsay Cedex (France)]. E-mail: cavalier@lal.in2p3.fr; Chiche, Ronic [Laboratoire de l' Accelerateur Lineaire, CNRS-IN2P3 and Universite Paris Sud, Ba-hat timent 200, Campus d' Orsay, B.P. 34, 91898 Orsay Cedex (France); Davier, Michel [Laboratoire de l' Accelerateur Lineaire, CNRS-IN2P3 and Universite Paris Sud, Ba-hat timent 200, Campus d' Orsay, B.P. 34, 91898 Orsay Cedex (France); Eder, Claude [Laboratoire de l' Accelerateur Lineaire, CNRS-IN2P3 and Universite Paris Sud, Ba-hat timent 200, Campus d' Orsay, B.P. 34, 91898 Orsay Cedex (France); Hello, Patrice [Laboratoire de l' Accelerateur Lineaire, CNRS-IN2P3 and Universite Paris Sud, Ba-hat timent 200, Campus d' Orsay, B.P. 34, 91898 Orsay Cedex (France); Heusse, Philippe; Kreckelbergh, Stephane; Mansoux, Bruno [Laboratoire de l' Accelerateur Lineaire, CNRS-IN2P3 and Universite Paris Sud, Ba-hat timent 200, Campus d' Orsay, B.P. 34, 91898 Orsay Cedex (France)

2005-09-11

In order to detect gravitational waves, the kilometric interferometer Virgo needs an active control of the positions of the suspended optical components, keeping the detector at its working point. The constraints are about 10{sup -10}m RMS for the longitudinal control ('Locking') and 10{sup -9}rad RMS for the angular degrees of freedom ('Alignment'). A dedicated hardware and software named Global Control is in charge of the Locking and the Alignment loops for the Virgo experiment. This system has been designed to match the synchronization constraint and provide a flexible tool in order to easily integrate the various algorithms needed for the control of Virgo. This paper presents the technical requirements to be fulfilled by the Global Control. Then, the dedicated hardware is described and the overall architecture of the Global Control is shown.

Climate change and agricultural production | Offiong | Global ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

From a policy viewpoint, however, it is also difficult to understand the level to which agriculturally related activities may contribute to global-scale environmental change and the extent to which policies to prevent, mitigate, or adapt to environmental change may affect agriculture and hunger. These issues are likely to become ...

Teaching for Global Competence in a Rapidly Changing World

Science.gov (United States)

Colvin, Richard Lee; Edwards, Virginia

2018-01-01

This new publication sets forward the PISA framework for global competence developed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which aligns closely with the definition developed by the Center for Global Education at Asia Society. Based on the Center's extensive experience supporting educators in integrating global…

Climate Change and Expected Impacts on the Global Water Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Rind, David; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

How the elements of the global hydrologic cycle may respond to climate change is reviewed, first from a discussion of the physical sensitivity of these elements to changes in temperature, and then from a comparison of observations of hydrologic changes over the past 100 million years. Observations of current changes in the hydrologic cycle are then compared with projected future changes given the prospect of global warming. It is shown that some of the projections come close to matching the estimated hydrologic changes that occurred long ago when the earth was very warm.

A global high-resolution model experiment on the predictability of the atmosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Judt, F.

2016-12-01

Forecasting high-impact weather phenomena is one of the most important aspects of numerical weather prediction (NWP). Over the last couple of years, a tremendous increase in computing power has facilitated the advent of global convection-resolving NWP models, which allow for the seamless prediction of weather from local to planetary scales. Unfortunately, the predictability of specific meteorological phenomena in these models is not very well known. This raises questions about which forecast problems are potentially tractable, and what is the value of global convection-resolving model predictions for the end user. To address this issue, we use the Yellowstone supercomputer to conduct a global high-resolution predictability experiment with the recently developed Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). The computing power of Yellowstone enables the model to run at a globally uniform resolution of 4 km with 55 vertical levels (>2 billion grid cells). These simulations, which require 3 million core-hours for the entire experiment, allow for the explicit treatment of organized deep moist convection (i.e., thunderstorm systems). Resolving organized deep moist convection alleviates grave limitations of previous predictability studies, which either used high-resolution limited-area models or global simulations with coarser grids and cumulus parameterization. By computing the error growth characteristics in a set of "identical twin" model runs, the experiment will clarify the intrinsic predictability limits of atmospheric phenomena on a wide range of scales, from severe thunderstorms to global-scale wind patterns that affect the distribution of tropical rainfall. Although a major task by itself, this study is intended to be exploratory work for a future predictability experiment going beyond of what has so far been feasible. We hope to use CISL's new Cheyenne supercomputer to conduct a similar predictability experiments on a global mesh with 1-2 km resolution. This

Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

2015-01-01

Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in…

Northern peatlands in global climatic change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laiho, R.; Laine, J.; Vasander, H. [eds.] [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Forest Ecology

1996-12-31

Northern peatlands are important in regulating the global climate. While sequestering carbon dioxide, these peatlands release ca. 24-39 Tg methane annually to the atmosphere. This is 5-20 % of the annual anthropogenic methane emissions to the atmosphere. The greenhouse gas balance of peatlands may change as a consequence of water level draw-down after land-use change, or if summers become warmer and drier, as has been predicted for high latitudes after climatic warming. Subsequent emissions of methane would decrease, whereas emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide would increase. Within the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU), the research project `Carbon Balance of Peatlands and Climate Change` (SUOSILMU) has been under progress since 1990. It is a co-operative research project, with research groups from the Universities of Helsinki and Joensuu, the Finnish Forest Research Institute, the National Public Health Institute and the Finnish Environment Agency. The research consortium of this project organised a workshop entitled `Northern Peatlands in Global Climatic Change - Hyytiaelae Revisited` October 8-12, 1995. The main objective of the workshop was to review the state of the art of the carbon cycling research in natural and managed peatlands. The role of peatlands in the greenhouse effect, their response and feedback to the predicted climate change, and the consequences of land-use changes were assessed, and the future research needs were evaluated. The latest information on the role of peatlands in the atmospheric change was given in 50 posters and 4 key lectures. Results of SUOSILMU projects were demonstrated during a 1-day field excursion to one of the intensive study sites, Lakkasuo near Hyytiaelae

A DBMS architecture for global change research

Science.gov (United States)

Hachem, Nabil I.; Gennert, Michael A.; Ward, Matthew O.

1993-08-01

The goal of this research is the design and development of an integrated system for the management of very large scientific databases, cartographic/geographic information processing, and exploratory scientific data analysis for global change research. The system will represent both spatial and temporal knowledge about natural and man-made entities on the eath's surface, following an object-oriented paradigm. A user will be able to derive, modify, and apply, procedures to perform operations on the data, including comparison, derivation, prediction, validation, and visualization. This work represents an effort to extend the database technology with an intrinsic class of operators, which is extensible and responds to the growing needs of scientific research. Of significance is the integration of many diverse forms of data into the database, including cartography, geography, hydrography, hypsography, images, and urban planning data. Equally important is the maintenance of metadata, that is, data about the data, such as coordinate transformation parameters, map scales, and audit trails of previous processing operations. This project will impact the fields of geographical information systems and global change research as well as the database community. It will provide an integrated database management testbed for scientific research, and a testbed for the development of analysis tools to understand and predict global change.

Climate change under aggressive mitigation: the ENSEMBLES multi-model experiment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johns, T.C.; Hewitt, C.D. [Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Royer, J.F.; Salas y. Melia, D. [Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques-Groupe d' Etude de l' Atmosphere Meteorologique (CNRM-GAME Meteo-France CNRS), Toulouse (France); Hoeschel, I.; Koerper, J. [Freie Universitaet Berlin, Institute for Meteorology, Berlin (Germany); Huebener, H. [Hessian Agency for the Environment and Geology, Wiesbaden (Germany); Roeckner, E.; Giorgetta, M.A. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Manzini, E. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); May, W.; Yang, S. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Danish Climate Centre, Copenhagen (Denmark); Dufresne, J.L. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD/IPSL), UMR 8539 CNRS, ENS, UPMC, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Otteraa, O.H. [Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Uni. Bjerknes Centre, Bergen (Norway); Vuuren, D.P. van [Utrecht University, Utrecht (Netherlands); Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), Bilthoven (Netherlands); Denvil, S. [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), FR 636 CNRS, UVSQ, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Fogli, P.G. [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Tjiputra, J.F. [University of Bergen, Department of Geophysics, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Stehfest, E. [Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), Bilthoven (Netherlands)

2011-11-15

We present results from multiple comprehensive models used to simulate an aggressive mitigation scenario based on detailed results of an Integrated Assessment Model. The experiment employs ten global climate and Earth System models (GCMs and ESMs) and pioneers elements of the long-term experimental design for the forthcoming 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment. Atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentrations pathways rather than carbon emissions are specified in all models, including five ESMs that contain interactive carbon cycles. Specified forcings also include minor greenhouse gas concentration pathways, ozone concentration, aerosols (via concentrations or precursor emissions) and land use change (in five models). The new aggressive mitigation scenario (E1), constructed using an integrated assessment model (IMAGE 2.4) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K, is studied alongside the medium-high non-mitigation scenario SRES A1B. Resulting twenty-first century global mean warming and precipitation changes for A1B are broadly consistent with previous studies. In E1 twenty-first century global warming remains below 2 K in most models, but global mean precipitation changes are higher than in A1B up to 2065 and consistently higher per degree of warming. The spread in global temperature and precipitation responses is partly attributable to inter-model variations in aerosol loading and representations of aerosol-related radiative forcing effects. Our study illustrates that the benefits of mitigation will not be realised in temperature terms until several decades after emissions reductions begin, and may vary considerably between regions. A subset of the models containing integrated carbon cycles agree that land and ocean sinks remove roughly half of present day anthropogenic carbon emissions from the atmosphere, and that anthropogenic carbon emissions must decrease by at least 50% by 2050 relative

Are climate-related changes to the character of global-mean precipitation predictable?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stephens, Graeme L; Hu, Yongxiang

2010-01-01

The physical basis for the change in global-mean precipitation projected to occur with the warming associated with increased greenhouse gases is discussed. The expected increases to column water vapor W control the rate of increase of global precipitation accumulation through its affect on the planet's energy balance. The key role played by changes to downward longwave radiation controlled by this changing water vapor is emphasized. The basic properties of molecular absorption by water vapor dictate that the fractional rate of increase of global-mean precipitation must be significantly less that the fractional rate of increase in water vapor and it is further argued that this reduced rate of precipitation increase implies that the timescale for water re-cycling is increased in the global mean. This further implies less frequent precipitation over a fixed period of time, and the intensity of these less frequent precipitating events must subsequently increase in the mean to realize the increased global accumulation. These changes to the character of global-mean precipitation, predictable consequences of equally predictable changes to W, apply only to the global-mean state and not to the regional or local scale changes in precipitation.

Changes in yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Childers, Katelin

2015-04-01

An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the political discussion about mitigation targets as well as for the inclusion of climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that generally only provide global mean temperature change as an indicator of climate change. While there is a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with global mean temperature change we provide an assessment of the extent to which impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of global mean temperature changes without accounting for the specific underlying emissions scenario. Based on multi-crop-model simulations of the four major cereal crops (maize, rice, soy, and wheat) on a 0.5 x 0.5 degree global grid generated within ISI-MIP, we show the average spatial patterns of projected crop yield changes at one half degree warming steps. We find that emissions scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of global warming. Furthermore, scenario dependence can be reduced by accounting for the direct effects of CO2 fertilization in each global climate model (GCM)/impact model combination through an inclusion of the global atmospheric CO2 concentration as a second predictor. The choice of GCM output used to force the crop model simulations accounts for a slightly larger portion of the total yield variance, but the greatest contributor to variance in both global and regional crop yields and at all levels of warming, is the inter-crop-model spread. The unique multi impact model ensemble available with ISI-MIP data also indicates that the overall variability of crop yields is projected to increase in conjunction with increasing global mean temperature. This result is consistent throughout the ensemble of impact models and across many world regions. Such a hike in yield volatility could have

Global Change Research Related to the Earth's Energy and Hydrologic Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

1998-01-01

The Institute for Global Change Research and Education (IGCRE) is a joint initiative of the Universities Space Research Association (USRA) and the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) for coordinating and facilitating research and education relevant to global environmental change. Created in 1992 with primary support from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), IGCRE fosters participation by university, private sector and government scientists who seek to develop long-term collaborative research in global change science, focusing on the role of water and energy in the Earth's atmosphere and physical climate system. IGCRE is also chartered to address educational needs of Earth system and global change science, including the preparation of future scientists and training of primary and secondary education teachers.

Relation of tolerance of ambiguity to global and specific paranormal experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Houran, J; Williams, C

1998-12-01

We examined the relationship of tolerance of ambiguity to severe global factors and specific types of anomalous or paranormal experience. 107 undergraduate students completed MacDonald's 1970 AT-20 and the Anomalous Experiences Inventory of Kumar, Pekala, and Gallagher. Scores on the five subscales of the Anomalous Experiences Inventory correlated differently with tolerance of ambiguity. Global paranormal beliefs, abilities, experiences, and drug use were positively associated with tolerance of ambiguity, whereas a fear of paranormal experience showed a negative relation. The specific types of anomalous experiences that correlated with tolerance of ambiguity often involved internal or physiological experience, e.g., precognitive dreams, memories of reincarnation, visual apparitions, and vestibular alterations. We generally found no effects of age of sex. These results are consistent with the idea that some paranormal experiences are misattributions of internal experience to external ('paranormal') sources, a process analogous to mechanisms underpinning delusions and hallucinations.

Expansion of plants with Crassulacean Acid Metabolism under global environment change

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, K.; D'Odorico, P.; Collins, S. L.; Carr, D.

2016-12-01

The abundance of plants with Crassulacean Acid Metabolism (CAM) has increased in many drylands worldwide. This is hypothesized to occur because CAM plants store water, take up CO2 at night, exhibit photosynthetic plasticity, and have high water use efficiency. The increased dominance of CAM plants, however, also depends on their competitive relationship with other functional groups, an aspect of CAM plant sensitivity to global environmental change that has remained largely understudied. Here, we investigated the response of CAM plants and their competitive relationships with C3 and C4 plants under global environmental change. We focused on two pairs of CAM and non-CAM species, namely Cylindropuntia imbricata (a constitutive CAM species) and Bouteloua eriopoda (C4 grass), which co-occur in desert grasslands in northern Mexico, and invasive Mesembryanthemum crystallinum (a facultative CAM species) and Bromus mollis (a C3 invasive grass), which coexist in California's coastal grasslands. A set of growth chamber experiments under altered CO2 and water conditions show that C. imbricata outcompeted B. eriopoda under drought conditions, while in well-watered conditions B. eriopoda was a stronger competitor for soil water than C. imbricata. Under drought conditions a more positive response to CO2 enrichment by C. imbricata indirectly disfavored B. eriopoda, which suggests that interspecific competition can outweigh the favorable direct effect of CO2 enrichment on plant growth. A set of greenhouse experiments under water, N, and soil salinity manipulations showed that drought, N deposition, and/or increased soil salinity served as important drivers for success of M. crystallinum invasion, while B. mollis exerted strong competitive effects on M. crystallinum for light and soil nutrients in well-watered conditions. M. crystallinum switched from C3 photosynthesis to CAM photosynthesis as an adaptive strategy in response to moderate intensity of competition from B. mollis, in

U.S. Global Change Research Program Budget Crosscut

Data.gov (United States)

Office of Science and Technology Policy, Executive Office of the President — U.S. Global Change Research Program budget authority for Agency activities in which the primary focus is on:Observations, research, and analysis of climate change...

USGS global change science strategy: A framework for understanding and responding to climate and land-use change

Science.gov (United States)

Burkett, Virginia R.; Taylor, Ione L.; Belnap, Jayne; Cronin, Thomas M.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Frazier, Eldrich L.; Haines, John W.; Kirtland, David A.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Milly, Paul C.D.; O'Malley, Robin; Thompson, Robert S.

2011-01-01

This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global Change Science Strategy expands on the Climate Variability and Change science component of the USGS 2007 Science Strategy, “Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges: USGS Science in the Coming Decade” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). Here we embrace the broad definition of global change provided in the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 (Public Law 101–606,104 Stat. 3096–3104)—“Changes in the global environment (including alterations in climate, land productivity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life”—with a focus on climate and land-use change.There are three major characteristics of this science strategy. First, it addresses the science required to broadly inform global change policy, while emphasizing the needs of natural-resource managers and reflecting the role of the USGS as the science provider for the Department of the Interior and other resource-management agencies. Second, the strategy identifies core competencies, noting 10 critical capabilities and strengths the USGS uses to overcome key problem areas. We highlight those areas in which the USGS is a science leader, recognizing the strong partnerships and effective collaboration that are essential to address complex global environmental challenges. Third, it uses a query-based approach listing key research questions that need to be addressed to create an agenda for hypothesis-driven global change science organized under six strategic goals. Overall, the strategy starts from where we are, provides a vision for where we want to go, and then describes high-priority strategic actions, including outcomes, products, and partnerships that can get us there. Global change science is a well-defined research field with strong linkages to the ecosystems, water, energy and minerals, natural hazards, and environmental health components of the USGS Science Strategy

Managing Identifiers for Elements of Provenance of the Third National Climate Assessment in the Global Change Information System (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Tilmes, C.; Aulenbach, S.; Duggan, B.; Goldstein, J.

2013-12-01

A Federal Advisory Committee (The "National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee" or NCADAC) has overseen the development of a draft climate report that after extensive review will be considered by the Federal Government in the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA). This comprehensive report (1) Integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings; (2) Analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and (3) Analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. The U.S. Global Change Program (USGCRP), composed of the 13 federal agencies most concerned with global change, is building a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will ultimately organize access to all of the research, data, and information about global change from across the system. A prototype of the system has been constructed that captures and presents all of the elements of provenance of the NCA through a coherent data model and friendly front end web site. This work will focus on the globally unique and persistent identifiers used to reference and organize those items. These include externally referenced items, such as DOIs used by scientific journal publishers for research articles or by agencies as dataset identifiers, as well as our own internal approach to identifiers, our overall data model and experiences managing persistent identifiers within the GCIS.

Influence of multiple global change drivers on terrestrial carbon storage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yue, Kai; Fornara, Dario A; Yang, Wanqin

2017-01-01

The interactive effects of multiple global change drivers on terrestrial carbon (C) storage remain poorly understood. Here, we synthesise data from 633 published studies to show how the interactive effects of multiple drivers are generally additive (i.e. not differing from the sum of their indivi......The interactive effects of multiple global change drivers on terrestrial carbon (C) storage remain poorly understood. Here, we synthesise data from 633 published studies to show how the interactive effects of multiple drivers are generally additive (i.e. not differing from the sum...... additive effects of multiple global change drivers into future assessments of the C storage ability of terrestrial ecosystems....

Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

Science.gov (United States)

Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2011-12-01

The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI

Changing recruitment capacity in global fish stocks.

Science.gov (United States)

Britten, Gregory L; Dowd, Michael; Worm, Boris

2016-01-05

Marine fish and invertebrates are shifting their regional and global distributions in response to climate change, but it is unclear whether their productivity is being affected as well. Here we tested for time-varying trends in biological productivity parameters across 262 fish stocks of 127 species in 39 large marine ecosystems and high-seas areas (hereafter LMEs). This global meta-analysis revealed widespread changes in the relationship between spawning stock size and the production of juvenile offspring (recruitment), suggesting fundamental biological change in fish stock productivity at early life stages. Across regions, we estimate that average recruitment capacity has declined at a rate approximately equal to 3% of the historical maximum per decade. However, we observed large variability among stocks and regions; for example, highly negative trends in the North Atlantic contrast with more neutral patterns in the North Pacific. The extent of biological change in each LME was significantly related to observed changes in phytoplankton chlorophyll concentration and the intensity of historical overfishing in that ecosystem. We conclude that both environmental changes and chronic overfishing have already affected the productive capacity of many stocks at the recruitment stage of the life cycle. These results provide a baseline for ecosystem-based fisheries management and may help adjust expectations for future food production from the oceans.

Trump's Doctrine and Climate Change: New Challenges for Global Governance

OpenAIRE

Contipelli, Ernani

2017-01-01

The present communication aims to discuss the main topics related to Trump’s Doctrine and its effects on the implementation of global governance to fight against Climate Change. To present the argument, first, we will analyze the relation between global governance and climate change, followed by a general view of the climate change by some Republican Party members, and finally, the current policies already put in place by President Trump

Global Change in the Upper Atmosphere

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Laštovička, Jan; Akmaev, R. A.; Beig, G.; Bremer, J.; Emmert, J. T.

2006-01-01

Roč. 314, č. 5803 (2006), s. 1253-1254 ISSN 0036-8075 R&D Projects: GA MŠk OC 091 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Global change * Upper Atmosphere * Ionosphere Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 30.028, year: 2006

Faculty Experiences of Merger and Organizational Change in a Social Work Program.

Science.gov (United States)

Adedoyin, A Christson; Miller, Monte; Jackson, Mary S; Dodor, Bernice; Hall, Kristen

2016-01-01

Social work programs are experiencing unprecedented organizational changes due to budget cuts, dwindling resources, global, and technological challenges. However, there is limited information in the literature about the merger experiences of faculty in social work programs. On one hand undergoing merger and reorganization provides the opportunity to reorganize, reprioritize, re-assess, develop strategies, and explore previously untapped opportunities for social work programs. Conversely, merger experiences have caused frustration, intention to quit, confusion, and loss of professional identity for social work faculty. In this article the authors utilize a journaling method and sense-making approach of the merger experiences of some of the faculty members of a social work program in the United States. The authors suggest a framework to understand how the faculty confronted the challenges, overcame the pitfalls, and maximized the opportunities offered during the merger and organizational change process.

Governing Global Climate Change: Past Achievements, Future Prospects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ella Kokotsis

2014-11-01

Full Text Available The cumulative effects of a significantly changing climate are projected to have disastrous implications on the world’s natural habitats, and along with that, are projected to drastically increase the rate and likelihood of violent conflict globally, particularly in high-density, urban, poverty hotspots. Limiting the effects of a changing climate is thus critical in influencing multiple societal goals including equitable sustainable development, human health, biodiversity, food security and access to reliable energy sources. This paper argues that the G7/8 has led global climate governance in ways other international environmental institu­tions have largely failed to do. It has done so largely by placing climate protection at the forefront of its policy objectives, alongside economic, health, energy and security goals, and reaching consensus repeatedly amongst its leaders on the impor­tance of stabilizing emissions through energy efficiency, conservation, investment and technological innovation. Moreover, this chapter argues that the summit’s predominant capability, its constricted participation, democratic convergence and political cohesion – as well as the combined effects of global shocks – have all had positive impacts on the G7/8’s success in mitigating climate change. Following a detailed process-tracing exercise over the summit’s 40-year history in which clear surges and retreats on global climate governance are outlined, this paper concludes by assessing the G7/8’s accountability record on climate mitigation and outlines a set of prescriptive recommendations, allowing for the delivery of a more tangible, coherent, results-driven accountability process for global climate governance.

Global climate change: US-Japan cooperative leadership for environmental protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gray, J.E.; Fri, R.W.; Ikuta, Toyoaki; Guertin, D.L.; Tomitate, Takao.

1991-01-01

Over the past decade the Atlantic Council of the United States has engaged in continuing dialogue with the Committee for Energy Policy Promotion (Japan), The Institute of Energy Economics (Japan) and the Global Industrial and Social Progress Research Institute (Japan) on a range of energy issues, including environmentally related considerations. Cooperation on environmental issues is the subject of this joint US-Japanese policy paper on global climate change. The Japanese and US participants who prepared this paper agreed on a number of conclusions, principles to guide action, and common recommendations on how best to address global climate change issues. The agreed upon principles include development of strategies in a long-term time frame (50-100 years); aggressive action to increase efficiency or reduce pollution when economically and technologically justified; utilization of market forces to the maximum extent possible; and assistance to developing countries in reducing pollution and increasing energy efficiency. The key recommendations include: The need to strengthen research to better understand global climate change, its implications and appropriate response strategies; The importance of involving as many nations as possible in formulating a framework agreement on global climate change; Recognition that, given economic and technical capabilities, each country should develop its own response strategies; Additional public and private sector efforts to increase the efficient use of resources and the use of alternate, less polluting energy resources when economically justified; Actions to address obstacles to technology cooperation with developing countries; and Increased flow of information to opinion leaders and the general public on global climate change

U.S. Geological Survey climate and land use change science strategy: a framework for understanding and responding to global change

Science.gov (United States)

Burkett, Virginia R.; Kirtland, David A.; Taylor, Ione L.; Belnap, Jayne; Cronin, Thomas M.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Frazier, Eldrich L.; Haines, John W.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Milly, Paul C.D.; ,; ,; ,; Robert, S.; Maule, Alec G.; McMahon, Gerard; Striegl, Robert G.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a nonregulatory Federal science agency with national scope and responsibilities, is uniquely positioned to serve the Nation’s needs in understanding and responding to global change, including changes in climate, water availability, sea level, land use and land cover, ecosystems, and global biogeochemical cycles. Global change is among the most challenging and formidable issues confronting our Nation and society. Scientists agree that global environmental changes during this century will have far-reaching societal implications (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007; U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009). In the face of these challenges, the Nation can benefit greatly by using natural science information in decisionmaking.

The Impact Of Climate Change On Water Resources: Global And ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

GHGs) is increasing and this has resulted to changing global climate with increasing temperature. The rise in global average temperatures since 1860 now exceeds 0.6OC. The effect of the GHGs concentration on global warming as at 2100 is ...

Performance and Evaluation of the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office Observing System Simulation Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Prive, Nikki; Errico, R. M.; Carvalho, D.

2018-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO) has spent more than a decade developing and implementing a global Observing System Simulation Experiment framework for use in evaluting both new observation types as well as the behavior of data assimilation systems. The NASA/GMAO OSSE has constantly evolved to relect changes in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation data assimiation system, the Global Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5), and the real world observational network. Software and observational datasets for the GMAO OSSE are publicly available, along with a technical report. Substantial modifications have recently been made to the NASA/GMAO OSSE framework, including the character of synthetic observation errors, new instrument types, and more sophisticated atmospheric wind vectors. These improvements will be described, along with the overall performance of the current OSSE. Lessons learned from investigations into correlated errors and model error will be discussed.

Climate of Tajikistan in connection with global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khakimov, F.Kh.; Mirzokhonova, S.O.; Mirzokhonava, N.A.

2006-01-01

The analysis of global climate change for different periods and its consequences on regional climate is given. The chronology of climate change in Tajikistan in various regions and the reasons leading or resulted to these changes are changes are shown as well

Globalization and the Changing Epidemiology of Hepatitis A Virus.

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobsen, Kathryn H

2018-03-02

Increased economic interdependence, social integration, and other aspects of globalization are contributing to significant changes in hepatitis A epidemiology. Globally, the incidence of hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection is decreasing, the age at midpoint of population immunity (AMPI) is increasing, and the proportion of symptomatic cases is increasing as the average age at infection increases. In low-income countries, HAV remains endemic but improved water and sanitation systems are reducing transmission rates among young children. In high-income countries, most adults remain susceptible to HAV and foodborne outbreaks are becoming more frequent. Middle-income countries have diverse epidemiological profiles, and they play important roles in the global spread of HAV through international trade and travel. Future changes in the epidemiology of hepatitis A will be heavily influenced by globalization processes. Copyright © 2018 Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press; all rights reserved.

Global vegetation change predicted by the modified Budyko model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Monserud, R.A.; Tchebakova, N.M.; Leemans, R. (US Department of Agriculture, Moscow, ID (United States). Intermountain Research Station, Forest Service)

1993-09-01

A modified Budyko global vegetation model is used to predict changes in global vegetation patterns resulting from climate change (CO[sub 2] doubling). Vegetation patterns are predicted using a model based on a dryness index and potential evaporation determined by solving radiation balance equations. Climate change scenarios are derived from predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCM's) of the atmosphere (GFDL, GISS, OSU, and UKMO). All four GCM scenarios show similar trends in vegetation shifts and in areas that remain stable, although the UKMO scenario predicts greater warming than the others. Climate change maps produced by all four GCM scenarios show good agreement with the current climate vegetation map for the globe as a whole, although over half of the vegetation classes show only poor to fair agreement. The most stable areas are Desert and Ice/Polar Desert. Because most of the predicted warming is concentrated in the Boreal and Temperate zones, vegetation there is predicted to undergo the greatest change. Most vegetation classes in the Subtropics and Tropics are predicted to expand. Any shift in the Tropics favouring either Forest over Savanna, or vice versa, will be determined by the magnitude of the increased precipitation accompanying global warming. Although the model predicts equilibrium conditions to which many plant species cannot adjust (through migration or microevolution) in the 50-100 y needed for CO[sub 2] doubling, it is not clear if projected global warming will result in drastic or benign vegetation change. 72 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.

Communicating global climate change using simple indices: an update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Drost, Frank; Karoly, David [University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Braganza, Karl [National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

2012-08-15

Previous studies have shown that there are several indices of global-scale temperature variations, in addition to global-mean surface air temperature, that are useful for distinguishing natural internal climate variations from anthropogenic climate change. Appropriately defined, such indices have the ability to capture spatio-temporal information in a similar manner to optimal fingerprints of climate change. These indices include the contrast between the average temperatures over land and over oceans, the Northern Hemisphere meridional temperature gradient, the temperature contrast between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere and the magnitude of the annual cycle of average temperatures over land. They contain information independent of the global-mean temperature for internal climate variations at decadal time scales and represent different aspects of the climate system, yet they show common responses to anthropogenic climate change. In addition, the ratio of average temperature changes over land to those over the oceans should be nearly constant for transient climate change. Hence, supplementing analysis of global-mean surface temperature with analyses of these indices can strengthen results of attribution studies of causes of observed climate variations. In this study, we extend the previous work by including the last 10 years of observational data and the CMIP3 climate model simulations analysed for the IPCC AR4. We show that observed changes in these indices over the last 10 years provide increased evidence of an anthropogenic influence on climate. We also show the usefulness of these indices for evaluating the performance of climate models in simulating large-scale variability of surface temperature. (orig.)

Global change and the measurement of absolute sea-level

Science.gov (United States)

Diamante, John M.; Pyle, Thomas E.; Carter, William E.; Scherer, Wolfgang

To quantify properly the long-term response of sea-level to climate change, land motions must be separated from the apparent or relative sea-level change recorded by conventional tide/sea-level gauges. Here we present a concept for global measurement of the true or “absolute” sea-level change, which combines recent advances in space-based geodetic techniques with plans for a global sea-level network under the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Data from initial feasibility tests show that land motion, due to global (plate tectonic), regional (glacial rebound), or local (fluid withdrawal) effects, can probably be measured to ±1cm (on a single measurement basis) by an innovative combination of Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) and Global Positioning System (GPS) tevhniques. By making repeated observations of position at a number of tide gauges using portable, economical GPS receivers in a differential mode relative to the fewer, more stable, but more expensive VLBI observatories, it will be possible to subtract land motion from the relative sea-level signal. Decadal to century scale trends at the 1-2mm y -1 level will be resolvable in the sea-level and vertical land motion time series within about a decade. Detection of subsidence or uplift at specific gauges will allow correction for land motion or deletion of bad data when computing regional or global, i.e. eustatic, sea-level changes. In addition to their applications in oceanography and climate studies, such data will test models by Peltier and other that relate mantle viscosity and deglaciation history to present rates of crustal subsidence or uplift. If the predicted crustal motions are confirmed, we can also have more confidence in the use of historical tide/sea-level gauge records in retrospective studies of sea-level change related to climate variability on decadal or longer time scales. It is concluded that as few as one-third (about 100) of the total number of tide/sea-level gauges (250

Future aridity under conditions of global climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Asadi Zarch, Mohammad Amin; Sivakumar, Bellie; Malekinezhad, Hossein; Sharma, Ashish

2017-11-01

Global climate change is anticipated to cause some major changes in hydroclimatic conditions around the world. As aridity is a reliable indicator of potential available water, assessment of its changes under future climatic conditions is important for proper management of water. This study employs the UNESCO aridity/humidity index, which is a derivative of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), for assessment of aridity. Historical (1901-2005) simulations and future (2006-2100) projections of 22 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are studied. The Nested Bias Correction (NBC) approach is used to correct possible biases of precipitation (simulated directly by the GCMs) and PET (estimated by applying FAO56-Penman-Monteith model on simulated parameters of the GCMs). To detect future aridity changes, the areal extents of the aridity zones in the past and future periods as well as through four sub-periods (2006-2025, 2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100) of the future are compared. The results indicate that changes in climate will alter the areal extents of aridity zones in the future. In general, from the first sub-period towards the last one, the area covered by hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid zones will increase (by 7.46%, 7.01%, 5.80%, and 2.78%, respectively), while the area of the humid regions will decrease (by 4.76%), suggesting that there will be less water over the global land area in the future. To understand the cause of these changes, precipitation and PET are also separately assumed to be stationary throughout the four future sub-periods and the resulting aridity changes are then analyzed. The results reveal that the aridity changes are mostly caused by the positive PET trends, even though the slight precipitation increase lessens the magnitude of the changes.

Changes on Mid-Latitude Cyclones due to Global Warming Simulated by a Global 20-km-mesh Atmospheric Model

Science.gov (United States)

Miyamoto, K.

2005-12-01

I investigate how the intensity and the activity of mid-latitude cyclones change as a result of global warming, based on a time-slice experiment with a super-high resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model (20-km mesh TL959L60 MRI/JMA AGCM). The model was developed by the RR2002 project "Development of Super High Resolution Global and Regional Climate Models" funded by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. In this context, I use a 10-year control simulation with the climatological SST and a 10-year time-slice global warming simulation using the SST anomalies derived from the SRES A1B scenario run with the MRI-CGCM2.3 (T42L30 atmosphere, 0.5-2.0 x 2.5 L23 ocean) corresponding to the end of the 21st century. I have analyzed the sea-level pressure field and the kinetic energy field of the wind at the 500 hPa pressure level associated with mid-latitude transients from October through April. According to a comparison of 10-day average fields between present and future in the North Pacific, some statistically significant changes are found in a warmer climate for the both of sea-level pressure and the kinetic energy fields. In particular, from late winter through early spring, the sea-level pressure decreases on many parts of the whole Pacific. The kinetic energy of the wind becomes higher on center of the basin. Therefore, I suppose the Aleutian Low is likely to settle in longer by about one month than the present. Hereafter, I plan to investigate what kind of phenomena may accompany the changes on mid-latitude transients.

INTRODUCTION: Anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Allan, Richard P.; Liepert, Beate G.

2010-06-01

The atmospheric branch of the water cycle, although containing just a tiny fraction of the Earth's total water reserves, presents a crucial interface between the physical climate (such as large-scale rainfall patterns) and the ecosystems upon which human societies ultimately depend. Because of the central importance of water in the Earth system, the question of how the water cycle is changing, and how it may alter in future as a result of anthropogenic changes, present one of the greatest challenges of this century. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on Climate Change and Water (Bates et al 2008) highlighted the increasingly strong evidence of change in the global water cycle and associated environmental consequences. It is of critical importance to climate prediction and adaptation strategies that key processes in the atmospheric water cycle are precisely understood and determined, from evaporation at the surface of the ocean, transport by the atmosphere, condensation as cloud and eventual precipitation, and run-off through rivers following interaction with the land surface, sub-surface, ice, snow and vegetation. The purpose of this special focus issue of Environmental Research Letters on anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle is to consolidate the recent substantial advances in understanding past, present and future changes in the global water cycle through evidence built upon theoretical understanding, backed up by observations and borne out by climate model simulations. Thermodynamic rises in water vapour provide a central constraint, as discussed in a guest editorial by Bengtsson (2010). Theoretical implications of the Clausius-Clapeyron equation are presented by O'Gorman and Muller (2010) and with reference to a simple model (Sherwood 2010) while observed humidity changes confirm these anticipated responses at the land and ocean surface (Willett et al 2008). Rises in low-level moisture are thought to fuel an

The relationship of long term global temperature change and human fertility.

Science.gov (United States)

Fisch, Harry; Andrews, Howard F; Fisch, Karen S; Golden, Robert; Liberson, Gary; Olsson, Carl A

2003-07-01

According to the United Nations, global fertility has declined in the last century as reflected by a decline in birth rates. The earth's surface air temperature has increased considerably and is referred to as global warming. Since changes in temperature are well known to influence fertility we sought to determine if a statistical relationship exists between long-term changes in global air temperatures and birth rates. The most complete and reliable birth rate data in the 20th century was available in 19 industrialized countries. Using bivariate and multiple regression analysis, we compared yearly birth rates from these countries to global air temperatures from 1900 to 1994.A common pattern of change in birth rates was noted for the 19 industrialized countries studied. In general, birth rates declined markedly throughout the century except during the baby boom period of approximately 1940 to 1964. An inverse relationship was found between changes in global temperatures and birth rates in all 19 countries. Controlling for the linear yearly decline in birth rates over time, this relationship remained statistically significant for all the 19 countries in aggregate and in seven countries individually (phuman fertility may have been influenced by change in environmental temperatures.

World environmental policy. Conceptual approaches of German political science in response to the challenges of Global Change; Weltumweltpolitik - Global Change als Herausforderung fuer die deutsche Politikwissenschaft

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Biermann, F. [Potsdam-Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Dingwerth, K. [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Fachbereich Politik- und Sozialwissenschaften

2001-12-01

This paper describes, first, the international community of social scientists working on global change, and elaborates on possible contributions to this community by German political scientists. Second, the paper examines three new conceptual approaches to analysing global change, namely the Syndromes of Global Change approach, Earth System Analysis, and Sustainability Science. The paper then elaborates on a number of ways in which German political science could respond to the academic and political challenges posed by global change. It concludes by emphasizing the need for a new approach, focusing on 'world environmental policy analysis' that would bridge traditional (environmental) policy analysis, international relations research, and comparative politics. (orig.) [German] Der Aufsatz beschreibt die Wissenschaftslandschaft der internationalen sozialwissenschaftlichen Global-Change-Forschung mit besonderem Augenmerk auf moegliche Beitraege der deutschen Politologie. Mit den 'Syndromen des Globalen Wandels', der 'Erdsystemanalyse' und der 'Nachhaltigkeitswissenschaft' werden drei neuere konzeptionelle Innovationen vorgestellt, mit denen der Herausforderung des Globalen Wandels begegnet werden soll. Anschliessend werden Wege skizziert, wie die Politikwissenschaft auf die neuen gesellschaftlichen und wissenschaftlichen Probleme des Globalen Wandels reagieren koennte. Eine Schlussfolgerung ist ein Plaedoyer fuer die Entwicklung einer eigenstaendigen Weltumweltpolitik-Analyse an der Schnittstelle von traditioneller Policy-Analyse, Internationalen Beziehungen/Aussenpolitik sowie Komparatistik. (orig./CB)

Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H.

1992-05-01

This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available

Towards monitoring land-cover and land-use changes at a global scale: the global land survey 2005

Science.gov (United States)

Gutman, G.; Byrnes, Raymond A.; Masek, J.; Covington, S.; Justice, C.; Franks, S.; Headley, Rachel

2008-01-01

Land cover is a critical component of the Earth system, infl uencing land-atmosphere interactions, greenhouse gas fl uxes, ecosystem health, and availability of food, fi ber, and energy for human populations. The recent Integrated Global Observations of Land (IGOL) report calls for the generation of maps documenting global land cover at resolutions between 10m and 30m at least every fi ve years (Townshend et al., in press). Moreover, despite 35 years of Landsat observations, there has not been a unifi ed global analysis of land-cover trends nor has there been a global assessment of land-cover change at Landsat-like resolution. Since the 1990s, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have supported development of data sets based on global Landsat observations (Tucker et al., 2004). These land survey data sets, usually referred to as GeoCover ™, provide global, orthorectifi ed, typically cloud-free Landsat imagery centered on the years 1975, 1990, and 2000, with a preference for leaf-on conditions. Collectively, these data sets provided a consistent set of observations to assess land-cover changes at a decadal scale. These data are freely available via the Internet from the USGS Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) (see http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov or http://glovis.usgs.gov). This has resulted in unprecedented downloads of data, which are widely used in scientifi c studies of land-cover change (e.g., Boone et al., 2007; Harris et al., 2005; Hilbert, 2006; Huang et al. 2007; Jantz et al., 2005, Kim et al., 2007; Leimgruber, 2005; Masek et al., 2006). NASA and USGS are continuing to support land-cover change research through the development of GLS2005 - an additional global Landsat assessment circa 20051 . Going beyond the earlier initiatives, this data set will establish a baseline for monitoring changes on a 5-year interval and will pave the way toward continuous global land

How Will Global Environmental Changes Affect the Growth of Alien Plants?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jujie Jia

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Global environmental changes can create novel habitats, promoting the growth of alien plants that often exhibit broad environmental tolerance and high phenotypic plasticity. However, the mechanisms underlying these growth promotory effects are unknown at present. Here, we conducted a phylogenetically controlled meta-analysis using data from 111 published studies encompassing the responses of 129 alien plants to global warming, increased precipitation, N deposition, and CO2 enrichment. We compared the differences in the responses of alien plants to the four global environmental change factors across six categories of functional traits between woody and non-woody life forms as well as C3 and C4 photosynthetic pathways. Our results showed that all four global change factors promote alien plant growth. Warming had a more positive effect on C4 than C3 plants. Although the effects of the four factors on the functional traits of alien plants were variable, plant growth was mainly promoted via an increase in growth rate and size. Our data suggest that potential future global environmental changes could further facilitate alien plant growth.

Global Geodetic Observing System: meeting the requirements of a global society on a changing planet in 2020

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Plag, Hans-Peter, 1952; Pearlman, Michael

2009-01-01

..., Earth Observation on a global scale is at the heart of GGOS's activities, which contributes to Global Change research through the monitoring, as well as the modeling, of dynamic Earth processes such as, for example, mass and angular momentum exchanges, mass transport and ocean circulation, and changes in sea, land and ice surfaces. To achieve such a...

Human response to global change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frassetto, R.

1991-01-01

Alertness of the global climate and environment change triggered by the effects of the economy of waste of industrial modern society has been raised to governments and populations. World-wide agreements and protocols have been established; they will be improved for action in two major issues: limitation (elimination of CFC's use, reductions of CO2 emissions, increasing energy efficiency, etc.) and adaptation (socio economic impacts, human behaviour, enhancement of predictive models, etc.)

Heat, Human Performance, and Occupational Health: A Key Issue for the Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts.

Science.gov (United States)

Kjellstrom, Tord; Briggs, David; Freyberg, Chris; Lemke, Bruno; Otto, Matthias; Hyatt, Olivia

2016-01-01

Ambient heat exposure is a well-known health hazard, which reduces human performance and work capacity at heat levels already common in tropical and subtropical areas. Various health problems have been reported. Increasing heat exposure during the hottest seasons of each year is a key feature of global climate change. Heat exhaustion and reduced human performance are often overlooked in climate change health impact analysis. Later this century, many among the four billion people who live in hot areas worldwide will experience significantly reduced work capacity owing to climate change. In some areas, 30-40% of annual daylight hours will become too hot for work to be carried out. The social and economic impacts will be considerable, with global gross domestic product (GDP) losses greater than 20% by 2100. The analysis to date is piecemeal. More analysis of climate change-related occupational health impact assessments is greatly needed.

Natural resources management in an era of global change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sommers, W.T. [USDA Forest Service, Washington, DC (United States)

1993-12-31

The international science community has issued a series of predictions of global atmospheric change that, if they verify, will have heretofore unexperienced impact on our forests. Convincing the public and their natural resource managers to respond to these effects must be high on the agenda of the science community. Mitigative and adapative responses we examine and propose, however, should stem from an understanding of the evolving role of the natural resource manager and how that role might be affected by global change.

Global change in the trophic functioning of marine food webs.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aurore Maureaud

Full Text Available The development of fisheries in the oceans, and other human drivers such as climate warming, have led to changes in species abundance, assemblages, trophic interactions, and ultimately in the functioning of marine food webs. Here, using a trophodynamic approach and global databases of catches and life history traits of marine species, we tested the hypothesis that anthropogenic ecological impacts may have led to changes in the global parameters defining the transfers of biomass within the food web. First, we developed two indicators to assess such changes: the Time Cumulated Indicator (TCI measuring the residence time of biomass within the food web, and the Efficiency Cumulated Indicator (ECI quantifying the fraction of secondary production reaching the top of the trophic chain. Then, we assessed, at the large marine ecosystem scale, the worldwide change of these two indicators over the 1950-2010 time-periods. Global trends were identified and cluster analyses were used to characterize the variability of trends between ecosystems. Results showed that the most common pattern over the study period is a global decrease in TCI, while the ECI indicator tends to increase. Thus, changes in species assemblages would induce faster and apparently more efficient biomass transfers in marine food webs. Results also suggested that the main driver of change over that period had been the large increase in fishing pressure. The largest changes occurred in ecosystems where 'fishing down the marine food web' are most intensive.

Salt Marshes as Potential Indicatore of Global Climate Change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kim, Daehyun; Cairens, David; Jung, S.H.

2011-01-01

Coastal scientists postulate that salt marshes are significantly affected by dynamics of global climate. However, few studies have explicitly proposed a perspective that regards salt marshes as potential indicators of climate change. This review article evaluates the possibility of salt marshes...... as indicators of global climate change, focusing upon three major aspects: sedimentary, vegetation, and biogeochemical dynamics. The previous literature concerned with these aspects commonly argues that the primary impact of climate change on salt marshes occurs via sea-level variations, because hydrologic...... fluctuations regulate the frequency, duration, and depth of over-marsh flooding events. Sedimentary, floristic, and biogeochemical dynamics prove to be significantly influenced by sealevel changes regardless of climate zones, and hence, undoubtedly possess a potential for indicating climate signatures. However...

Climate Change, Globalization and Geopolitics in the New Maritime Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Brigham, L. W.

2011-12-01

Early in the 21st century a confluence of climate change, globalization and geopolitics is shaping the future of the maritime Arctic. This nexus is also fostering greater linkage of the Arctic to the rest of the planet. Arctic sea ice is undergoing a historic transformation of thinning, extent reduction in all seasons, and reduction in the area of multiyear ice in the central Arctic Ocean. Global Climate Model simulations of Arctic sea ice indicate multiyear ice could disappear by 2030 for a short period of time each summer. These physical changes invite greater marine access, longer seasons of navigation, and potential, summer trans-Arctic voyages. As a result, enhanced marine safety, environmental protection, and maritime security measures are under development. Coupled with climate change as a key driver of regional change is the current and future integration of the Arctic's natural wealth with global markets (oil, gas and hard minerals). Abundant freshwater in the Arctic could also be a future commodity of value. Recent events such as drilling for hydrocarbons off Greenland's west coast and the summer marine transport of natural resources from the Russian Arctic to China across the top of Eurasia are indicators of greater global economic ties to the Arctic. Plausible Arctic futures indicate continued integration with global issues and increased complexity of a range of regional economic, security and environmental challenges.

Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H. [eds.

1992-05-01

This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.

Global Mindset: An Entrepreneur's Perspective on the Born-Global Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert Poole

2012-10-01

Full Text Available The born-global approach calls for a startup to address the needs of a global market from inception. This approach provides an attractive alternative to the conventional staged approach to internationalization whereby a startup first operates in its home market and then enters one or more foreign markets sequentially. This article highlights the mindset change that an entrepreneur must make to move from the conventional staged approach to the born-global approach. The author of this article is an experienced entrepreneur and the article describes his own mindset change that occurred when enacting the born-global approach. The author uses his own experience and company as a case study to develop recommendations for other entrepreneurs who are evaluating the born-global approach to launch and grow a technology company.

Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

2015-04-01

Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in the Web-based Inquiry Science Environment (WISE), engages sixth-grade students in conducting virtual investigations using NetLogo models to foster an understanding of core mechanisms including the greenhouse effect. Students then test how the greenhouse effect is enhanced by everyday energy use. This study draws on three data sources: (1) pre- and post-unit interviews, (2) analysis of embedded assessments following virtual investigations, and (3) contrasting cases of two students (normative vs. non-normative understanding of the greenhouse effect). Results show the value of using virtual investigations for teaching the mechanisms associated with global climate change. Interviews document that students hold a wide range of ideas about the mechanisms driving global climate change. Investigations with models help students use evidence-based reasoning to distinguish their ideas. Results show that understanding the greenhouse effect offers a foundation for building connections between everyday energy use and increases in global temperature. An impediment to establishing coherent understanding was the persistence of an alternative conception about ozone as an explanation for climate change. These findings illustrate the need for regular revision of curriculum based on classroom trials. We discuss key design features of models and instructional revisions that can transform the teaching and learning of global climate change.

Simulation of the influence of historical land cover changes on the global climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Y. [Nanjing Univ. of Aeronautics and Astronautics (China). College of Civil Aviation; Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Yan, X. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Beijing Normal Univ. (China). State Key Lab. of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE); Wang, Z. [British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (United Kingdom)

2013-09-01

In order to estimate biogeophysical effects of historical land cover change on climate during last three centuries, a set of experiments with a climate system model of intermediate complexity (MPM-2) is performed. In response to historical deforestation, the model simulates a decrease in annual mean global temperature in the range of 0.07-0.14 C based on different grassland albedos. The effect of land cover changes is most pronounced in the middle northern latitudes with maximum cooling reaching approximately 0.6 C during northern summer. The cooling reaches 0.57 C during northern spring owing to the large effects of land surface albedo. These results suggest that land cover forcing is important for study on historical climate change and that more research is necessary in the assessment of land management options for climate change mitigation. (orig.)

The observed sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arkin, Phillip A; Janowiak, John; Smith, Thomas M; Sapiano, Mathew R P

2010-01-01

Climate models project large changes in global surface temperature in coming decades that are expected to be accompanied by significant changes in the global hydrological cycle. Validation of model simulations is essential to support their use in decision making, but observing the elements of the hydrological cycle is challenging, and model-independent global data sets exist only for precipitation. We compute the sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature using available global precipitation data sets and compare the results against the sensitivities derived from model simulations of 20th century climate. The implications of the results for the global climate observing system are discussed.

Global inter-annual gravity changes from GRACE: Early results

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Hinderer, J.

2005-01-01

with an accuracy of 0.4 muGal corresponding to 9 mm water thickness on spatial scales longer than 1300 km. Four of the most widely used global hydrological models have been investigated for their spatial comparison with GRACE observations of inter-annual gravity field variations due to changes in continental water...... storage. The Global Land Data Assimilation System model has a spatial correlation coefficient with GRACE observations of 0.65 over the northern hemisphere. This demonstrates that the observed gravity field changes on these scales are largely related to changes in continental water storage.......Fifteen monthly gravity field solutions from the GRACE twin satellites launched more than two years ago have been studied to estimate gravity field changes between 2002 and 2003. The results demonstrate that GRACE is capable of capturing the changes in ground water on inter-annual scales...

How social structure changes in Chinese global cities: Synthesizing globalization, migration and institutional factors in Beijing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Shi, Q.; Liu, T.; Musterd, S.; Cao, G.

2017-01-01

Recent studies on the social structural change in global cities have recognized globalization, migration, and institutional factors as three main forces underlying this process. However, effects of these factors have rarely been synthetically examined and the social structure of emerging Chinese

Global warming and climate change: control methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laal, M.; Aliramaie, A.

2008-01-01

This paper aimed at finding causes of global warming and ways to bring it under control. Data based on scientific opinion as given by synthesis reports of news, articles, web sites, and books. global warming is the observed and projected increases in average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans. Carbon dioxide and other air pollution that is collecting in the atmosphere like a thickening blanket, trapping the sun's heat and causing the planet to warm up. Pollution is one of the biggest man-made problems. Burning fossil fuels is the main factor of pollution. As average temperature increases, habitats, species and people are threatened by drought, changes in rainfall, altered seasons, and more violent storms and floods. Indeed the life cycle of nuclear power results in relatively little pollution. Energy efficiency, solar, wind and other renewable fuels are other weapons against global warming . Human activity, primarily burning fossil fuels, is the major driving factor in global warming . Curtailing the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by reducing use of oil, gasoline, coal and employment of alternate energy, sources are the tools for keeping global warming under control. global warming can be slowed and stopped, with practical actions thal yield a cleaner, healthier atmosphere

Global change and marine communities: Alien species and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Occhipinti-Ambrogi, Anna

2007-01-01

Anthropogenic influences on the biosphere since the advent of the industrial age are increasingly causing global changes. Climatic change and the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are ranking high in scientific and public agendas, and other components of global change are also frequently addressed, among which are the introductions of non indigenous species (NIS) in biogeographic regions well separated from the donor region, often followed by spectacular invasions. In the marine environment, both climatic change and spread of alien species have been studied extensively; this review is aimed at examining the main responses of ecosystems to climatic change, taking into account the increasing importance of biological invasions. Some general principles on NIS introductions in the marine environment are recalled, such as the importance of propagule pressure and of development stages during the time course of an invasion. Climatic change is known to affect many ecological properties; it interacts also with NIS in many possible ways. Direct (proximate) effects on individuals and populations of altered physical-chemical conditions are distinguished from indirect effects on emergent properties (species distribution, diversity, and production). Climatically driven changes may affect both local dispersal mechanisms, due to the alteration of current patterns, and competitive interactions between NIS and native species, due to the onset of new thermal optima and/or different carbonate chemistry. As well as latitudinal range expansions of species correlated with changing temperature conditions, and effects on species richness and the correlated extinction of native species, some invasions may provoke multiple effects which involve overall ecosystem functioning (material flow between trophic groups, primary production, relative extent of organic material decomposition, extent of benthic-pelagic coupling). Some examples are given, including a special

From the international geophysical year to global change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleagle, R.G.

1992-01-01

A series of major scientific programs carried out over the past 40 years has greatly increased understanding of our global environment and has led to the present concern over global change. Each program responded to a specific and urgent scientific need or opportunity. In each case, institutions and resources were created that provided the foundation for later programs. Increased scientific understanding has exposed threats to future welfare and has raised serious policy implications for governments. Institutions for responding to global policy issues need to be created or strengthened. Recommendations for better procedures and institutional structures are provided in this article. 39 refs

Global Farm Animal Production and Global Warming: Impacting and Mitigating Climate Change

OpenAIRE

Koneswaran, Gowri; Nierenberg, Danielle

2008-01-01

Background The farm animal sector is the single largest anthropogenic user of land, contributing to many environmental problems, including global warming and climate change. Objectives The aim of this study was to synthesize and expand upon existing data on the contribution of farm animal production to climate change. Methods We analyzed the scientific literature on farm animal production and documented greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as various mitigation strategies. Discussions An a...

Business responses to global climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pinkse, J.M.

2006-04-27

This research project studies the evolution and determinants of corporate climate strategies of multinationals. Since most companies are affected by global climate change in a direct or indirect way, a range of strategies are emerging to mitigate climate change. These strategies are not only of a political nature (e.g. influencing government institutions), but also of a competitive nature. The aim is to introduce a typology of corporate climate strategies, paying specific attention to the market components related to climate change. More and more, multinationals' actions in reducing greenhouse gas emissions are aimed at achieving a sustained competitive advantage in addition to compliance with government regulation. What factors determine these market strategies for climate change will be explored in a theoretical framework based on institutional theory and the resource-based view of the firm.

International earth science information network for global change decision making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Autrey-Hunley, C.; Kuhn, W.R.; Kasischke, E.; Trichel, M.T.; Coppola, R.

1991-01-01

Effective environmental decision making depends upon the ability to predict physical changes in the environment, societal responses to these changes, and how both the physical changes and societal responses will be affected by changes in government regulations, public perceptions and the environment. Technological advances in remote sensing have provided a wealth of earth science data necessary to study global change problems; the Earth Observatory System will provide an unprecedented data source in the late 1990's. The Consortium for an International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) will combine earth science data (both satellite and ground-based) with data on the social sciences (e.g., economics, demographics, public health) to support informed policy decisions and to transfer knowledge on global change and its causes to the public.

Ecotones in a changing environment: Workshop on ecotones and global change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Risser, P.G.

1990-02-01

The Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) has organized an international project to synthesize and advance current theory on the influence of ecotones, or transition zones between ecosystems, on biodiversity and flows of energy, nutrients, water, and project is other materials between ecosystems. In particular, the entire project is designed to evaluate the influence of global climate change and land-use practices on biodiversity and ecological flows associated with ecotones, and will assess the feasibility of monitoring ecotones as early indicators of global change. The later stages of the project will recommend landscape management strategies for ecotones that produce desirable patterns of biodiversity and ecological flows. The result of the project--a comprehensive body of information on the theory and management of biodiversity and ecological flows associated with ecotones--will be part of the planning for research to be carried out under the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program.

Pilot Institute on Global Change on Trace Gases and the Biosphere, 1988

Science.gov (United States)

Eddy, J. A.; Moore, B.

1998-01-01

Table of Contents: Summary; Background; General Framework for a Series of Institutes on Global Change; The 1988 Pilot Institute on Global Changes: Trace Gases and the Biosphere; Budget; List of Acronyms; and Attachments.

GEWEX: The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Chahine, M.; Vane, D.

1994-01-01

GEWEX is one of the world's largest global change research programs. Its purpose is to observe and understand the hydrological cycle and energy fluxes in the atmosphere, at land surfaces and in the upper oceans.

Global changes and the air-sea exchange of chemicals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-01-01

Present and potential future changes to the global environment have important implications for marine pollution and for the air-sea exchange of both anthropogenic and natural substances. This report addresses three issues related to the potential impact of global change on the air-sea exchange of chemicals: Global change and the air-sea transfer of the nutrients nitrogen and iron. Global change and the air-sea exchange of gases. Oceanic responses to radiative and oxidative changes in the atmosphere. The deposition of atmospheric anthropogenic nitrogen has probably increased biological productivity in coastal regions along many continental margins. Atmospheric deposition of new nitrogen may also have increased productivity somewhat in mid-ocean regions. The projected future increases of nitrogen oxide emissions from Asia, Africa and South America will provide significant increases in the rate of deposition of oxidized nitrogen to the central North Pacific, the equatorial Atlantic, and the equatorial and central South Indian Oceans. Atmospheric iron may be an important nutrient in certain open regions. Future changes will likely occur if there are changing patterns of aridity and wind speed as a result of climate change. The most important future effects on surface ocean p CO2 will likely be caused by changes in ocean circulation. The pH of the ocean would decrease by ∼0.3 units for a doubling of p CO2 , reducing the capacity of the ocean to take up CO 2 . There is increasing evidence that dimethyl sulfide from the ocean is a source of cloud condensation nuclei and thus a factor controlling cloud albedo. By 2060 in the southern hemisphere reduction in total column stratospheric ozone from recent levels could reach 2 to 5% in the tropics, 10% at mid latitudes, and over 20% at 60 deg C. S. In this same time frame increases in ground-level effective UV-B radiation could reach 5%, 26% and 66%, at low, mid, and high latitudes in the southern hemisphere. Changes in

How does ocean ventilation change under global warming?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Gnanadesikan

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Since the upper ocean takes up much of the heat added to the earth system by anthropogenic global warming, one would expect that global warming would lead to an increase in stratification and a decrease in the ventilation of the ocean interior. However, multiple simulations in global coupled climate models using an ideal age tracer which is set to zero in the mixed layer and ages at 1 yr/yr outside this layer show that the intermediate depths in the low latitudes, Northwest Atlantic, and parts of the Arctic Ocean become younger under global warming. This paper reconciles these apparently contradictory trends, showing that the decreases result from changes in the relative contributions of old deep waters and younger surface waters. Implications for the tropical oxygen minimum zones, which play a critical role in global biogeochemical cycling are considered in detail.

Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahdoot, Samantha; Pacheco, Susan E

2015-11-01

Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Introduction to the Special Issue: Across the horizon: scale effects in global change research.

Science.gov (United States)

Gornish, Elise S; Leuzinger, Sebastian

2015-01-01

As a result of the increasing speed and magnitude in which habitats worldwide are experiencing environmental change, making accurate predictions of the effects of global change on ecosystems and the organisms that inhabit them have become an important goal for ecologists. Experimental and modelling approaches aimed at understanding the linkages between factors of global change and biotic responses have become numerous and increasingly complex in order to adequately capture the multifarious dynamics associated with these relationships. However, constrained by resources, experiments are often conducted at small spatiotemporal scales (e.g. looking at a plot of a few square metres over a few years) and at low organizational levels (looking at organisms rather than ecosystems) in spite of both theoretical and experimental work that suggests ecological dynamics across scales can be dissimilar. This phenomenon has been hypothesized to occur because the mechanisms that drive dynamics across scales differ. A good example is the effect of elevated CO2 on transpiration. While at the leaf level, transpiration can be reduced, at the stand level, transpiration can increase because leaf area per unit ground area increases. The reported net effect is then highly dependent on the spatiotemporal scale. This special issue considers the biological relevancy inherent in the patterns associated with the magnitude and type of response to changing environmental conditions, across scales. This collection of papers attempts to provide a comprehensive treatment of this phenomenon in order to help develop an understanding of the extent of, and mechanisms involved with, ecological response to global change. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

Indirect Effects of Global Change: From Physiological and Behavioral Mechanisms to Ecological Consequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Gunderson, Alex R; Tsukimura, Brian; Stillman, Jonathon H

2017-07-01

A major focus of current ecological research is to understand how global change makes species vulnerable to extirpation. To date, mechanistic ecophysiological analyses of global change vulnerability have focused primarily on the direct effects of changing abiotic conditions on whole-organism physiological traits, such as metabolic rate, locomotor performance, cardiac function, and critical thermal limits. However, species do not live in isolation within their physical environments, and direct effects of climate change are likely to be compounded by indirect effects that result from altered interactions with other species, such as competitors and predators. The Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology 2017 Symposium "Indirect Effects of Global Change: From Physiological and Behavioral Mechanisms to Ecological Consequences" was designed to synthesize multiple approaches to investigating the indirect effects of global change by bringing together researchers that study the indirect effects of global change from multiple perspectives across habitat, type of anthropogenic change, and level of biological organization. Our goal in bringing together researchers from different backgrounds was to foster cross-disciplinary insights into the mechanistic bases and higher-order ecological consequences of indirect effects of global change, and to promote collaboration among fields. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Global imprint of climate change on marine life

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Sydeman, William J.

2013-01-01

Past meta-analyses of the response of marine organisms to climate change have examined a limited range of locations1,2, taxonomic groups2–4 and/or biological responses5,6. This has precluded a robust overview of the effect of climate change in the global ocean. Here, we synthesized all available ...

Global climate change--The technology challenge: China

Science.gov (United States)

Population growth and developmental pressures, spawned by an increasing demand for resource intensive goods, foods and services, are altering the planet in ways that threaten the long-term well-being of humans and other species. Global climate change and its associated impacts is...

Changing heathlands in a changing climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ransijn, Johannes

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures are rising and precipitation regimes are changing at global scale. How ecosystem will be affected by global climatic change is dependent on the responses of plants and plant communities. This thesis focuses on how climate change affects heathland...... plant communities. Many heathlands have shifted from dwarf shrub dominance to grass dominance and climatic change might affect the competitive balance between dwarf shrubs and grasses. We looked at heathland vegetation dynamics and heathland plant responses to climatic change at different spatial...... between C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in the same climate change experiment and 5) a study where we compared the responses of shrubland plant communities to experimental warming and recurrent experimental droughts in seven climate change experiments across Europe. Heathland vegetation dynamics are slow...

Thermodynamic contributions of deforestation to global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bell, A.

2009-01-01

This paper examines a portion of the thermodynamics of global warming. The calculations use the endothermic photosynthesis reaction and yearly measures of CO 2 uptake to determine the amount of energy that is absorbed by forest cover each year. The energy absorption value of forest coverage determines the yearly cost of deforestation. The calculations reveal that 3.92 * 10 15 kJ less solar energy is absorbed by global forest coverage because of deforestation each year. The energy is enough to warm the atmosphere by 0.00008 °C / year. By comparison the same amount of energy represents 0.001 % of the atmospheric energy gains between 1995 and 2003. The results of this paper raise questions about the nature of global warming and the possibility that thermodynamic contributions to global climate change are significant. (author)

Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Delong; Wu, Shuyao; Liu, Laibao; Zhang, Yatong; Li, Shuangcheng

2018-05-27

Climate change has far-reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short-term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Global Governance for Health: how to motivate political change?

Science.gov (United States)

McNeill, D; Ottersen, O P

2015-07-01

In this article, we address a central theme that was discussed at the Durham Health Summit: how can politics be brought back into global health governance and figure much more prominently in discussions around policy? We begin by briefly summarizing the report of the Lancet - University of Oslo Commission on Global Governance for Health: 'The Political Origins of Health Inequity' Ottersen et al. In order to provide compelling evidence of the central argument, the Commission selected seven case studies relating to, inter alia, economic and fiscal policy, food security, and foreign trade and investment agreements. Based on an analysis of these studies, the report concludes that the problems identified are often due to political choices: an unwillingness to change the global system of governance. This raises the question: what is the most effective way that a report of this kind can be used to motivate policy-makers, and the public at large, to demand change? What kind of moral or rational argument is most likely to lead to action? In this paper we assess the merits of various alternative perspectives: health as an investment; health as a global public good; health and human security; health and human development; health as a human right; health and global justice. We conclude that what is required in order to motivate change is a more explicitly political and moral perspective - favouring the later rather than the earlier alternatives just listed. Copyright © 2015 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global geodetic observing system meeting the requirements of a global society on a changing planet in 2020

CERN Document Server

Plag, Hans-Peter

2009-01-01

Geodesy plays a key role in geodynamics, geohazards, the global water cycle, global change, atmosphere and ocean dynamics. This book covers geodesy's contribution to science and society and identifies user needs regarding geodetic observations and products.

Global atmospheric changes.

OpenAIRE

Piver, W T

1991-01-01

Increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can be directly related to global warming. In terms of human health, because a major cause of increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 is the increased combustion of fossil fuels, global warming also may result in increases in air pollutants, acid deposition, and exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To understand better the impacts of global warming phenomena on human health, this review emphasizes the proces...

Mutualism and impacts of global change: response of an important and neglected component of the biodiversity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hossaert-Mckey, M.

2007-01-01

We are studying the impact of global change on two obligate species-specific insect-plant mutualisms. Our approach combines correlative methods (examining spatial patterns of genetic diversity in populations of pairs of mutualists, to examine their responses to past climate change) and experiments (studying responses of plant partners to CO 2 fertilization). Mutualisms function because the partners have contrasting and complementary biological traits, so that a service implying only a low cost to one partner may confer a great benefit to the other. Because they can lead mutualist partners to respond differently to rapid ecological change, the biological differences that are fundamental to mutualisms may also make them vulnerable. Imbalances thereby introduced can disrupt the functioning of the mutualism. By comparing two strongly contrasting systems-fig/wasp pollination mutualisms and ant-plant protection mutualisms-we aim to characterize the diversity of responses of mutualisms to global change. By identifying points in common, we also aim to propose robust generalizations about the response to global change of obligate, specific mutualisms, an important and neglected component of tropical biodiversity. Our results show that the two mutualisms studied differ greatly in their response to Pleistocene and Holocene climatic fluctuations. Fig/wasp systems show little spatial genetic differentiation, indicating that the great dispersal capacities of both figs and their pollinating wasps resulted in maintenance of high effective population sizes throughout cycles of climatic and vegetation change. In contrast, limited dispersal capacity of both ant and plant partners has resulted in greater impact of climatic fluctuations on ant/plant protection mutualisms: species-distribution patterns suggest restriction of the system to refugia, and strong spatial genetic structure indicates widespread bottlenecks during fragmentation and expansion. Alternate contraction and expansion

Land cover change or land use intensification: simulating land system change with a global-scale land change model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Asselen, S.; Verburg, P.H.

2013-01-01

Land-use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land-use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land

Icarus's discovery: Acting on global climate change in the face of uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brooks, D.G.; Maracas, K.B.; Hayslip, R.M.

1994-01-01

The mythological character Icarus had the misfortune of learning the consequences of his decision to fly too near the sun at the same time he employed his decision. Although Daedalus tried to reduce the uncertainties of his son's decision by warning Icarus of the possible outcome, Icarus had no empirical knowledge of what would actually happen until his waxen wings melted and he fell to the sea. Like Icarus, man has no empirical knowledge or conclusive evidence today of the possible effects of global climate change. And though the consequences of policy decisions toward global climate change may not be as catastrophic as falling into the sea, the social and economic impacts of those decisions will be substantial. There are broad uncertainties related to the scientific and ecological aspects of global climate change. But clearly the ''politics'' of global climate change issues are moving at a faster rate than the science. There is a public outcry for action now, in the face of uncertainty. This paper profiles a case study of a southwestern utility's use of multi-attribute preference theory to reduce uncertainties and analyze its options for addressing global climate change issues

CO2-induced climate change in northern Europe: comparison of 12 CMIP2 experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raeisaenen, Jouni

2000-01-01

The results of 12 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model experiments participating in the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2) are studied with focus on the area of northern Europe. The variables considered are surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure. The 80-year control simulations are first compared with observational estimates of the present climate. Several aspects of the simulated CO 2 -induced climate changes, defined by subtracting the control run seasonal or annual means from 20-year perturbation run means around the transient doubling of CO 2 , are then studied. The common features and individual variations in the simulated climate change are documented. Particular attention is put on expressing the inter experiment agreement in quantitative terms and on estimating the relative contribution of model-simulated internal variability to the inter experiment variance. For that purpose, a new statistical framework is developed. Finally, an attempt is made to statistically relate the inter experiment differences in the simulated climate change in northern Europe to aspects of the control climates, global climate change and some of the basic model characteristics. A summary of the main findings is given in the last section of the report

Can air pollutant controls change global warming?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strefler, Jessica; Luderer, Gunnar; Kriegler, Elmar; Meinshausen, Malte

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Air pollution policies do not affect long-term climate targets. • Reduction of aerosols counteracts a fraction of the reduction of Kyoto forcing. • Air pollution policies may affect the rate of climate change in the short term. • There is no tradeoff between clean air and climate policies. - Abstract: In this paper we analyze the interaction between climate and air pollution policies using the integrated assessment model REMIND coupled to the reduced-form climate model MAGICC. Since overall, aerosols tend to cool the atmosphere, there is a concern that a reduction of pollutant emissions could accelerate global warming and offset the climate benefits of carbon dioxide emission reductions. We investigate scenarios which independently reduce emissions from either large-scale sources, such as power plants, or small-scale sources, such as cooking and heating stoves. Large-scale sources are likely to be easier to control, but their aerosol emissions are characterized by a relatively high sulfur content, which tends to result in atmospheric cooling. Pollution from small-scale sources, by contrast, is characterized by a high share of carbonaceous aerosol, which is an important contributor to global warming. We find that air pollution policies can significantly reduce aerosol emissions when no climate policies are in place. Stringent climate policies lead to a large reduction of fossil fuel use, and therefore result in a concurrent reduction of air pollutant emissions. These reductions partly reduce aerosol masking, thus initially counteracting the reduction of greenhouse gas forcing, however not overcompensating it. If climate policies are in place, air pollution policies have almost no impacts on medium- and long-term radiative forcing. Therefore there is no conflict of objectives between clean air and limiting global warming. We find that the stringency of air pollution policies may influence the rate of global temperature change in the first decade

High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, M C; Potapov, P V; Moore, R; Hancher, M; Turubanova, S A; Tyukavina, A; Thau, D; Stehman, S V; Goetz, S J; Loveland, T R; Kommareddy, A; Egorov, A; Chini, L; Justice, C O; Townshend, J R G

2013-11-15

Quantification of global forest change has been lacking despite the recognized importance of forest ecosystem services. In this study, Earth observation satellite data were used to map global forest loss (2.3 million square kilometers) and gain (0.8 million square kilometers) from 2000 to 2012 at a spatial resolution of 30 meters. The tropics were the only climate domain to exhibit a trend, with forest loss increasing by 2101 square kilometers per year. Brazil's well-documented reduction in deforestation was offset by increasing forest loss in Indonesia, Malaysia, Paraguay, Bolivia, Zambia, Angola, and elsewhere. Intensive forestry practiced within subtropical forests resulted in the highest rates of forest change globally. Boreal forest loss due largely to fire and forestry was second to that in the tropics in absolute and proportional terms. These results depict a globally consistent and locally relevant record of forest change.

Population aging, macroeconomic changes, and global diabetes prevalence, 1990-2008.

Science.gov (United States)

Sudharsanan, Nikkil; Ali, Mohammed K; Mehta, Neil K; Narayan, K M Venkat

2015-01-01

Diabetes is an important contributor to global morbidity and mortality. The contributions of population aging and macroeconomic changes to the growth in diabetes prevalence over the past 20 years are unclear. We used cross-sectional data on age- and sex-specific counts of people with diabetes by country, national population estimates, and country-specific macroeconomic variables for the years 1990, 2000, and 2008. Decomposition analysis was performed to quantify the contribution of population aging to the change in global diabetes prevalence between 1990 and 2008. Next, age-standardization was used to estimate the contribution of age composition to differences in diabetes prevalence between high-income (HIC) and low-to-middle-income countries (LMICs). Finally, we used non-parametric correlation and multivariate first-difference regression estimates to examine the relationship between macroeconomic changes and the change in diabetes prevalence between 1990 and 2008. Globally, diabetes prevalence grew by two percentage points between 1990 (7.4 %) and 2008 (9.4 %). Population aging was responsible for 19 % of the growth, with 81 % attributable to increases in the age-specific prevalences. In both LMICs and HICs, about half the growth in age-specific prevalences was from increasing levels of diabetes between ages 45-65 (51 % in HICs and 46 % in LMICs). After age-standardization, the difference in the prevalence of diabetes between LMICs and HICs was larger (1.9 % point difference in 1990; 1.5 % point difference in 2008). We found no evidence that macroeconomic changes were associated with the growth in diabetes prevalence. Population aging explains a minority of the recent growth in global diabetes prevalence. The increase in global diabetes between 1990 and 2008 was primarily due to an increase in the prevalence of diabetes at ages 45-65. We do not find evidence that basic indicators of economic growth, development, globalization, or urbanization were related

Integrating scientific, economic, and ecological aspects of global change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacoby, H.D.; Yang, Z.

1994-01-01

The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is conducting research on methods for integrating the science of potential global change with economic analysis of litigation policies and quantification of economic and environmental impacts. The paper describes this work, with a focus on the way that research within the various contributing disciplines, and the design of their associated models, are influenced by the process of inclusion in an integrated framework for policy analysis. The results should contribute new insight into the relative importance of key feedbacks within the economy-climate-ecology system

Health effects of global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghauri, B.; Salam, M.; Mirza I.

1992-01-01

This paper identifies potential health problems that may arise from global climates changes caused by increasing green house gases and depletion in the ozone layer. The mankind is responsible for saving or destroying the environment. There are many forms which can pollute the environment like greenhouse activities. The greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane and ozone etc. cause pollutants in the environment. (A.B.)

Implications for human health of global atmospheric changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guidotti, T.L.; Last, J.

1991-01-01

The possible impacts of the greenhouse effect, ozone depletion and ultraviolet irradiation, acid precipitation, and resulting demographic changes are reviewed, along with the implications of global ecological changes on society and sustainable development. Some manifestations of global warming caused by the greenhouse effect could include more frequently extreme weather conditions, rises in sea level, disruption of ocean currents, and changes in composition and distribution of vegetation. Consequences of these manifestations on human health include an increase in the frequency of droughts and heat waves, migration of disease carrying vectors to other areas, submergence of coastal areas and disruption of water supplies, destruction of tropical species potentially useful for medicinal purposes, and impaired production of crops leading to food shortages. Consequences of stratospheric ozone depletion due to chlorofluorocarbon pollution are thought to be a direct result of increased exposure to ultraviolet light; these consequences include higher risks of non-melanoma skin cancer. The effects of acid precipitation are thought to be primarily ecological and indirect. 61 refs,

Sulfur dioxide initiates global climate change in four ways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, Peter L.

2009-01-01

Global climate change, prior to the 20th century, appears to have been initiated primarily by major changes in volcanic activity. Sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) is the most voluminous chemically active gas emitted by volcanoes and is readily oxidized to sulfuric acid normally within weeks. But trace amounts of SO 2 exert significant influence on climate. All major historic volcanic eruptions have formed sulfuric acid aerosols in the lower stratosphere that cooled the earth's surface ∼ 0.5 o C for typically three years. While such events are currently happening once every 80 years, there are times in geologic history when they occurred every few to a dozen years. These were times when the earth was cooled incrementally into major ice ages. There have also been two dozen times during the past 46,000 years when major volcanic eruptions occurred every year or two or even several times per year for decades. Each of these times was contemporaneous with very rapid global warming. Large volumes of SO 2 erupted frequently appear to overdrive the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere resulting in very rapid warming. Such warming and associated acid rain becomes extreme when millions of cubic kilometers of basalt are erupted in much less than one million years. These are the times of the greatest mass extinctions. When major volcanic eruptions do not occur for decades to hundreds of years, the atmosphere can oxidize all pollutants, leading to a very thin atmosphere, global cooling and decadal drought. Prior to the 20th century, increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) followed increases in temperature initiated by changes in SO 2 . By 1962, man burning fossil fuels was adding SO 2 to the atmosphere at a rate equivalent to one 'large' volcanic eruption each 1.7 years. Global temperatures increased slowly from 1890 to 1950 as anthropogenic sulfur increased slowly. Global temperatures increased more rapidly after 1950 as the rate of anthropogenic sulfur emissions increased. By

CHAOS THEORY, GLOBAL SYSTEMIC CHANGE, AND HYBRID WARS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Korybko

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The global system is being rocked by the dueling ambitions of two competing blocs, with the US and its allies fighting to reinforce their unipolar system while Russia and its partners struggle to forge a multipolar future. The rapidity and scope with which events are unfolding makes it overwhelming for the casual observer to make sense of all of the complex processes currently at play, and truth be told, it’s understandable that all of this can appear confusing. In an attempt to clarify the present state of global affairs and forecast the direction that it’s all headed in, the article begins by explaining the nature of chaos theory and describing how it’s applicable to conceptualizing contemporary international relations. Afterwards, the idea of “chaos sequencing” is proposed, which in essence is a model that can be used in understanding the process of chaotic change. Following that, the article addresses the topic of global systemic change and includes the most relevant examples for how this relates to the present day. Next, the research combines these two aforementioned elements (chaos theory and global systemic change and presents a forward-looking geopolitical analysis that incorporates cutting-edge Hybrid War theory and aims to put the New Cold War into its proper perspective. Finally, the article ends on a suggestive note in encouraging analysts to study the authors’ conceptualization of Hybrid War in order to better prepare themselves for understanding and responding to forthcoming international events.

Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble.

Science.gov (United States)

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Giorgi, Filippo

2012-01-10

We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21 st century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways. In addition, areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and Central America/western North America also emerge as prominent regional climate change hotspots in response to intermediate and high levels of forcing. Comparisons of different periods of the two forcing pathways suggest that the pattern of aggregate change is fairly robust to the level of global warming below approximately 2°C of global warming (relative to the late-20 th -century baseline), but not at the higher levels of global warming that occur in the late-21 st -century period of the RCP8.5 pathway, with areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic exhibiting particular intensification of relative aggregate climate change in response to high levels of forcing. Although specific impacts will clearly be shaped by the interaction of climate change with human and biological vulnerabilities, our identification of climate change hotspots can help to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions by quantifying the rate, magnitude and causes of the aggregate climate response in different parts of the world.

Global climate change and human health: Information needs, research priorities, and strategic considerations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Farrell, M.P.; Kanciruk, P. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)); O' Hara, F.M. Jr. (O' Hara (Fred M., Jr.), Oak Ridge, TN (USA))

1989-01-01

The US Global Research Plan and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme were created to assess the effects of global climate change but have not been able to devote much attention to the consequences climate change will have on human health and welfare. Although researchers and policy makers recognize that climate change will have complex effects on resources, in general, the social and medical sciences have not received appropriate international attention under the banner of global change. To address this imbalance, the public health research community needs to launch a international coordinated effort so that the social and medical sciences are as fully represented as other scientific disciplines. This document discusses the information needs, research priorities and strategic considerations of the global change and its impact on human health.

Global atmospheric changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Piver, W T

1991-12-01

Increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can be directly related to global warming. In terms of human health, because a major cause of increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 is the increased combustion of fossil fuels, global warming also may result in increases in air pollutants, acid deposition, and exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To understand better the impacts of global warming phenomena on human health, this review emphasizes the processes that are responsible for the greenhouse effect, air pollution, acid deposition, and increased exposure to UV radiation.

Global environmental change: understanding the human dimensions

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Stern, Paul C; Young, Oran R; Druckman, Daniel

... on the Human Dimensions of Global Change Commission on the Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1992 Copyrightthe cannot be not from book, paper however, version for formatting, original authoritative the typesetting-specific the as from created publication files ...

Global Environmental Change : Understanding the Human Dimensions

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Stern, Paul C; Druckman, Daniel; Young, Oran R; National Research Council; National Academy of Sciences; Stern, Paul C; Druckman, Daniel

... on the Human Dimensions of Global Change Commission on the Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1992 Copyrightthe cannot be not from book, paper however, version for formatting, original authoritative the typesetting-specific the as from created publication files ...

Global warming and climate change in Amazonia: Climate-vegetation feedback and impacts on water resources

Science.gov (United States)

Marengo, José; Nobre, Carlos A.; Betts, Richard A.; Cox, Peter M.; Sampaio, Gilvan; Salazar, Luis

This chapter constitutes an updated review of long-term climate variability and change in the Amazon region, based on observational data spanning more than 50 years of records and on climate-change modeling studies. We start with the early experiments on Amazon deforestation in the late 1970s, and the evolution of these experiments to the latest studies on greenhouse gases emission scenarios and land use changes until the end of the twenty-first century. The "Amazon dieback" simulated by the HadCM3 model occurs after a "tipping point" of CO2 concentration and warming. Experiments on Amazon deforestation and change of climate suggest that once a critical deforestation threshold (or tipping point) of 40-50% forest loss is reached in eastern Amazonia, climate would change in a way which is dangerous for the remaining forest. This may favor a collapse of the tropical forest, with a substitution of the forest by savanna-type vegetation. The concept of "dangerous climate change," as a climate change, which induces positive feedback, which accelerate the change, is strongly linked to the occurrence of tipping points, and it can be explained as the presence of feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, particularly involving a weakening of the current terrestrial carbon sink and a possible reversal from a sink (as in present climate) to a source by the year 2050. We must, therefore, currently consider the drying simulated by the Hadley Centre model(s) as having a finite probability under global warming, with a potentially enormous impact, but with some degree of uncertainty.

Climate change impacts on soil carbon storage in global croplands: 1901-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, W.; Tian, H.

2015-12-01

New global data finds 12% of earth's surface in cropland at present. Croplands will take on the responsibility to support approximate 60% increase in food production by 2050 as FAO estimates. In addition to nutrient supply to plants, cropland soils also play a major source and sink of greenhouse gases regulating global climate system. It is a big challenge to understand how soils function under global changes, but it is also a great opportunity for agricultural sector to manage soils to assure sustainability of agroecosystems and mitigate climate change. Previous studies have attempted to investigate the impacts of different land uses and climates on cropland soil carbon storage. However, large uncertainty still exists in magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of global cropland soil organic carbon, due to the lack of reliable environmental databases and relatively poorly understanding of multiple controlling factors involved climate change and land use etc. Here, we use a process-based agroecosystem model (DLEM-Ag) in combination with diverse data sources to quantify magnitude and tempo-spatial patterns of soil carbon storage in global croplands during 1901-2010. We also analyze the relative contributions of major environmental variables (climate change, land use and management etc.). Our results indicate that intensive land use management may hidden the vulnerability of cropland soils to climate change in some regions, which may greatly weaken soil carbon sequestration under future climate change.

Climate changes instead of global warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radovanović Milan M.

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Air temperature changes on Earth in recent years are the subject of numerous and increasingly interdisciplinary research. In contrast to, conditionally speaking, generally accepted views that these changes are conditioned primarily by anthropogenic activity, more results appear to suggest that it is dominant natural processes about. Whether because of the proven existence of areas in which downtrends are registered or the stagnation of air temperature, as opposed to areas where the increase is determined, in scientific papers, as well as the media, the increasingly present is the use of the term climate changes instead of the global warming. In this paper, we shall try to present arguments for the debate relating to the official view of the IPCC, as well as research indicating the opposite view.

Climate change at the coast: from global to local

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watkinson, A.R.

2009-01-01

The IPCC has recently documented substantial changes in the global heat content of the oceans, salinity, sea level, thermal expansion and biogeochemistry. Over the 21. century anticipated climate related changes include: a rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more; increases in sea surface temperatures up to 3 deg. C; an intensification of tropical and extra tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/ run-off; and ocean acidification. The Tyndall Centre has been exploring how to down-scale the global analysis to the local level within the framework of a coastal simulator. The simulator provides information on possible future states of the coast through the 21. Century under a range of climate and socio-economic futures and shoreline management options. It links models within a nested framework, recognizing three scales: (1) global, (2) regional, and (3) local. The linked models describe a range of processes, including marine climate (waves, surges and mean sea level), sand bank morpho-dynamics, wave transformation, shoreline morpho-dynamics, built environment scenarios, ecosystem change, and erosion and flood risk. Analyses from the simulator reinforce conclusions from IPCC WG2: coasts will be exposed to increasing risks over coming decades due to many compounding climate-change factors; the impact of climate change on coasts will be exacerbated by increasing human induced pressures; the unavoidability of sea-level rise even in the longer-term frequently conflicts with present day human development patterns and trends. (author)

GLOBAL WARMING, CLIMATE CHANGE AND TOURISM: A REVIEW OF LITERATURE

OpenAIRE

Ramasamy, Rajesh; Swamy, Anjaneya

2015-01-01

Global warming, climate change and tourism of late, have taken the centre stage of academic research. A raging debate is on apart from the popular writings and research articles published on the theme. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice since the mid 20th century”. This conceptual paper discussed...

Integrating global energy and climate governance: The changing role of the International Energy Agency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heubaum, Harald; Biermann, Frank

2015-01-01

Despite the long-recognized interlinkages between global energy consumption and climate change, there has historically been only limited policy interaction, let alone integration, between the two fields. This compartmentalization is mirrored in scholarship, where much research has focused on the fragmentation of, respectively, global energy and global climate governance, but only little has been said about how these fields might be integrated. Our analysis of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) changing activities in recent years shows that governance integration – both within global energy governance and between global energy and climate governance – is now happening. The IEA has broadened its portfolio to embrace the full spectrum of energy issues, including renewable energy and climate change; it has built and is expanding key partnerships with both the UN climate convention and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA); and it has become an authoritative advocate for the inter-related goals of a low-carbon transition and climate change mitigation. We show that these developments are not the result of a top-down plan, but have rather emerged through the Agency’s various efforts to pursue its energy-centric mandate in a fast-changing global policy environment. - Highlights: • Assesses integration between global energy and global climate governance. • Analyzes organizational change in the IEA and its impact on governance integration. • Discusses recent activities and advocacy by the IEA in relation to climate change.

Future generations, environmental ethics, and global environmental change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tonn, B.E.

1994-12-31

The elements of a methodology to be employed by the global community to investigate the consequences of global environmental change upon future generations and global ecosystems are outlined in this paper. The methodology is comprised of two major components: A possible future worlds model; and a formal, citizen-oriented process to judge whether the possible future worlds potentially inheritable by future generations meet obligational standards. A broad array of descriptors of future worlds can be encompassed within this framework, including survival of ecosystems and other species and satisfaction of human concerns. The methodology expresses fundamental psychological motivations and human myths journey, renewal, mother earth, and being-in-nature-and incorporates several viewpoints on obligations to future generations-maintaining options, fairness, humility, and the cause of humanity. The methodology overcomes several severe drawbacks of the economic-based methods most commonly used for global environmental policy analysis.

Stormy weather: 101 solutions to global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dauncey, G.; Mazza, P.

2001-01-01

This book provides a comprehensive guide to energy efficiency measures that would rid the world of the threat of global warming caused by the wasteful use of hydrocarbon fuels and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. The actions to be taken are not directed to governments and industry alone; indeed, the change must involve every segment of society to be effective. Accordingly, the book recommends actions that could be taken by individuals, citizen organizations, municipalities, businesses and organizations, energy companies, automobile companies, states and provinces, national governments, developing nations and global solutions. The recommendations range from choosing energy efficient appliances and buying green power, through increased recycling, reuse and reduced consumption, building solar and other renewable energy capacity, using sustainable fuels in automobiles, introducing tax measures favouring energy efficiency and sustainable development, to launching macro-level plans for a global green deal, establishing a global climate fund, accelerating the phase-out of CHCs, HCFCs and HFCs, forming a global ecological alliance and declaring a century of ecological restoration. Bibliographic notes, illustrations

Coastline degradation as an indicator of global change

Science.gov (United States)

Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Letcher, Trevor M.

2009-01-01

Finding a climate change signal on coasts is more problematic than often assumed. Coasts undergo natural dynamics at many scales, with erosion and recovery in response to climate variability such as El Niño, or extreme events such as storms and infrequent tsunamis. Additionally, humans have had enormous impacts on most coasts, overshadowing most changes that one can presently attribute directly to climate change. Each area of coast is experiencing its own pattern of relative sea-level change and climate change, making discrimination of the component of degradation that results from climate change problems. The best examples of a climate influence are related to temperature rise at low and high latitudes, as seen by the impacts on coral reefs and polar coasts, respectively. Observations through the twentieth century demonstrate the importance of understanding the impacts of sea-level rise and climate change in the context of multiple drivers of change; this will remain a challenge under a more rapidly changing climate. Nevertheless, there are emerging signs that climate change provides a global threat—sea ice is retreating, permafrost in coastal areas is widely melting. Reefs are bleaching more often, and the sea is rising—amplifying widespread trends of subsidence and threatening low-lying areas. To enhance the sustainability of coastal systems, management strategies will also need to address this challenge, focusing on the drivers that are dominant at each section of coast. Global warming through the twentieth century has caused a series of changes with important implications for coastal areas. These include rising temperatures, rising sea level, increasing CO2 concentrations with an associated reduction in seawater pH, and more intense precipitation on average.

Information management for global environmental change, including the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stoss, F.W. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center

1994-06-01

The issue of global change is international in scope. A body of international organizations oversees the worldwide coordination of research and policy initiatives. In the US the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) was established in November of 1993 to provide coordination of science, space, and technology policies throughout the federal government. NSTC is organized into nine proposed committees. The Committee on Environmental and Natural Resources (CERN) oversees the US Department of Energy`s Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). As part of the USGCRP, the US Department of Energy`s Global Change Research Program aims to improve the understanding of Earth systems and to strengthen the scientific basis for the evaluation of policy and government action in response to potential global environmental changes. This paper examines the information and data management roles of several international and national programs, including Oak Ridge National Laboratory`s (ORNL`s) global change information programs. An emphasis will be placed on the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), which also serves as the World Data Center-A for Atmospheric Trace Gases.

The emergence of land change science for global environmental change and sustainability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Turner II, B.L.; Lambin, E.F.; Reenberg, Anette

2007-01-01

  Land change science has emerged as a fundamental component of global environmental change and sustainability research.  This interdisciplinary field seeks to understand the dynamics of land-cover and land-use as a coupled human-environment system in order to address theory, concepts, models......, and applications relevant to environmental and societal problems, including the intersection of the two.  The major components and advances in land change are addressed: observation and monitoring; understanding the coupled system-causes, impacts, and consequences; modeling; and synthesis issues.  The six articles...

Global River Discharge and Water Temperature under Climate Change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vliet, van M.T.H.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Yearsley, J.R.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

2013-01-01

Climate change will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on freshwater ecosystems and human water use. Here we assess the impact of climate change on global river flows and river water temperatures, and identify regions that might become more critical for

Global climate change adaptation: examples from Russian boreal forests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krankina, O.N.; Dixon, R.K.; Kirilenko, A.P.; Kobak, K.I.

1997-01-01

The Russian Federation contains approximately 20% of the world's timber resources and more than half of all boreal forests. These forests play a prominent role in environmental protection and economic development at global, national, and local levels, as well as, provide commodities for indigenous people and habitat for a variety of plant and animal species. The response and feedbacks of Russian boreal forests to projected global climate change are expected to be profound. Current understanding of the vulnerability of Russian forest resources to projected climate change is discussed and examples of possible adaptation measures for Russian forests are presented including: (1) artificial forestation techniques that can be applied with the advent of failed natural regeneration and to facilitate forest migration northward; (2) silvicultural measures that can influence the species mix to maintain productivity under future climates; (3) identifying forests at risk and developing special management adaption measures for them: (4) alternative processing and uses of wood and non-wood products from future forests; and (5) potential future infrastructure and transport systems that can be employed as boreal forests shift northward into melting permafrost zones. Current infrastructure and technology can be employed to help Russian boreal forests adapt to projected global environmental change, however many current forest management practices may have to be modified. Application of this technical knowledge can help policymakers identify priorities for climate change adaptation

Global modelling of river water quality under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Franssen, Wietse H. P.; Yearsley, John R.

2017-04-01

Climate change will pose challenges on the quality of freshwater resources for human use and ecosystems for instance by changing the dilution capacity and by affecting the rate of chemical processes in rivers. Here we assess the impacts of climate change and induced streamflow changes on a selection of water quality parameters for river basins globally. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a newly developed global water quality module for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand. The modelling framework was validated using observed records of streamflow, water temperature, chloride, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand for 1981-2010. VIC and the water quality module were then forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 to study water quality trends and identify critical regions (hotspots) of water quality deterioration for the 21st century.

Species as Stressors: Heterospecific Interactions and the Cellular Stress Response under Global Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Gunderson, Alex R; King, Emily E; Boyer, Kirsten; Tsukimura, Brian; Stillman, Jonathon H

2017-07-01

Anthropogenic global change is predicted to increase the physiological stress of organisms through changes in abiotic conditions such as temperature, pH, and pollution. However, organisms can also experience physiological stress through interactions with other species, especially parasites, predators, and competitors. The stress of species interactions could be an important driver of species' responses to global change as the composition of biological communities change through factors such as distributional and phenological shifts. Interactions between biotic and abiotic stressors could also induce non-linear physiological stress responses under global change. One of the primary means by which organisms deal with physiological stress is through the cellular stress response (CSR), which is broadly the upregulation of a conserved set of genes that facilitate the removal and repair of damaged macromolecules. Here, we present data on behavioral interactions and CSR gene expression for two competing species of intertidal zone porcelain crab (Petrolisthes cinctipes and Petrolisthes manimaculis). We found that P. cinctipes and P. manimaculis engage in more agonistic behaviors when interacting with heterospecifics than conspecifics; however, we found no evidence that heterospecific interactions induced a CSR in these species. In addition to our new data, we review the literature with respect to CSR induction via species interactions, focusing on predator-prey systems and heterospecific competition. We find extensive evidence for predators to induce cellular stress and aspects of the CSR in prey, even in the absence of direct physical contact between species. Effects of heterospecific competition on the CSR have been studied far less, but we do find evidence that agonistic interactions with heterospecifics can induce components of the CSR. Across all published studies, there is clear evidence that species interactions can lead to cellular stress and induction of the CSR

Critical perspectives on changing media environments in the Global South

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Poul Erik

the changes in the media landscape continuously alter the power balance between state, civil society and market. At the meso level, these changes will be discussed in relation to the development of the different media and of a variety of new locally specific media environments, which create new spaces......The main aim of this article is to give a general overview and theoretically discuss how significant changes in the media landscapes in Global South countries alter existing spaces and create new spaces for political and socio-cultural exchange, thus changing the complex interrelationship between...... media and society. Knowing that media is only one of many aspects in current societal changes, the focus will be more on the interrelationship between media and society and less on other aspects like globalization, education and political reforms. At the macro level, the article will discuss how...

CTFS-ForestGEO: a worldwide network monitoring forests in an era of global change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J. [Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (STRI), Panama (Panama). Center for Tropical Forest Science. Forest Global Earth Observatory; Smithsonian Conservation Biology Inst. (SCBI), Front Royal, VA (United States). National Zoological Park. Conservation Ecology Center; Davies, Stuart J. [Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (STRI), Panama (Panama). Center for Tropical Forest Science. Forest Global Earth Observatory; National Museum of Natural History, Washington, DC (United States). Dept. of Botany; Bennett, Amy C. [Smithsonian Conservation Biology Inst. (SCBI), Front Royal, VA (United States). National Zoological Park. Conservation Ecology Center; Gonzalez-Akre, Erika B. [Smithsonian Conservation Biology Inst. (SCBI), Front Royal, VA (United States). National Zoological Park. Conservation Ecology Center; Muller-Landau, Helene C. [Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (STRI), Panama (Panama). Center for Tropical Forest Science. Forest Global Earth Observatory; Joseph Wright, S. [Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (STRI), Panama (Panama). Center for Tropical Forest Science. Forest Global Earth Observatory; Abu Salim, Kamariah [Univ. of Brunei Darussalam, Bandar Seri Begawan (Brunei). Faculty of Science. Environmental and Life Sciences; Almeyda Zambrano, Angélica M. [Smithsonian Conservation Biology Inst. (SCBI), Front Royal, VA (United States). National Zoological Park. Conservation Ecology Center; Stanford Univ., CA (United States). Stanford Woods Inst. for the Environment; Univ. of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL (United States). Dept. of Geography; Alonso, Alfonso [Smithsonian Conservation Biology Inst., Washington, DC (United States). National Zoological Park. Center for Conservation Education and Sustainability; Baltzer, Jennifer L. [Wilfrid Laurier Univ., Waterloo, ON (Canada). Dept. of Biology; Basset, Yves [Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (STRI), Panama (Panama). Center for Tropical Forest Science. Forest Global Earth Observatory; Bourg, Norman A. [Smithsonian Conservation Biology Inst. (SCBI), Front Royal, VA (United States). National Zoological Park. Conservation Ecology Center; Broadbent, Eben N. [Smithsonian Conservation Biology Inst. (SCBI), Front Royal, VA (United States). National Zoological Park. Conservation Ecology Center; Stanford Univ., CA (United States). Stanford Woods Inst. for the Environment; Univ. of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL (United States). Dept. of Geography; Brockelman, Warren Y. [Mahidol Univ., Bangkok (Thailand). Dept. of Biology; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh [Dept. of National Parks, Wildlife and Plant Conservation, Bangkok (Thailand). Research Office; Burslem, David F. R. P. [Univ. of Aberdeen (United Kingdom). School of Biological Sciences; Butt, Nathalie [Univ. of Queensland, St. Lucia (Australia). School of Biological Sciences; Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom). School of Geography and the Environment. Environmental Change Inst.; Cao, Min [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Kunming (China). Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden. Key Lab. of Tropical Forest Ecology; Cardenas, Dairon [Sinchi Amazonic Inst. of Scientific Research, Bogota (Colombia); Chuyong, George B. [Univ. of Buea (Cameroon). Dept. of Botany and Plant Physiology; Clay, Keith [Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN (United States). Dept. of Biology; Cordell, Susan [USDA Forest Service, Hilo, HI (United States). Inst. of Pacific Islands Forestry; Dattaraja, Handanakere S. [Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore (India). Centre for Ecological Sciences; Deng, Xiaobao [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Kunming (China). Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden. Key Lab. of Tropical Forest Ecology; Detto, Matteo [Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (STRI), Panama (Panama). Center for Tropical Forest Science. Forest Global Earth Observatory; Du, Xiaojun [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China). Inst. of Botany; Duque, Alvaro [Univ. Nacional de Colombia, Medellin (Colombia). Dept. de Ciencias Forestales; Erikson, David L. [National Museum of Natural History, Washington, DC (United States). Dept. of Botany; Ewango, Corneille E. N. [Okapi Wildlife Reserve, Epulu (Democratic Republic of the Congo). Centre de Formation et de Recherche en Conservation Forestiere (CEFRECOF); Fischer, Gunter A. [Kadoorie Farm and Botanic Garden, Tai Po, Hong Kong (China); Fletcher, Christine [Forest Research Inst. Malaysia (FRIM), Selangor (Malaysia); Foster, Robin B. [The Field Museum, Chicago, IL (United States). Botany Dept.; Giardina, Christian P. [USDA Forest Service, Hilo, HI (United States). Inst. of Pacific Islands Forestry; Gilbert, Gregory S. [Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (STRI), Panama (Panama). Center for Tropical Forest Science. Forest Global Earth Observatory; Univ. of California, Santa Cruz, CA (United States). Environmental Studies Dept.; Gunatilleke, Nimal [Univ. of Peradeniya (Sri Lanka). Faculty of Science. Dept. of Botany; Gunatilleke, Savitri [Univ. of Peradeniya (Sri Lanka). Faculty of Science. Dept. of Botany; Hao, Zhanqing [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Shenyang (China). State Key Lab. of Forest and Soil Ecology. Inst. of Applied Ecology; Hargrove, William W. [USDA-Forest Service Station Headquarters, Asheville, NC (United States). Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center; Hart, Terese B. [Lukuru Wildlife Research Foundation, Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo). Tshuapa-Lomami-Lualaba Project; Hau, Billy C. H. [Univ. of Hong Kong (China). School of Biological Sciences. Kadoorie Inst.; He, Fangliang [Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada). Dept. of Renewable Resources; Hoffman, Forrest M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Computational Earth Sciences Group; Howe, Robert W. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Green Bay, WI (United States). Dept. of Natural and Applied Sciences; Hubbell, Stephen P. [Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (STRI), Panama (Panama). Center for Tropical Forest Science. Forest Global Earth Observatory; Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Dept. of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; Inman-Narahari, Faith M. [Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI (United States). College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources; Jansen, Patrick A. [Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (STRI), Panama (Panama). Center for Tropical Forest Science. Forest Global Earth Observatory; Wageningen Univ. (Netherlands). Resource Ecology Group; Jiang, Mingxi [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Wuhan (China). Wuhan Botanical Garden; Johnson, Daniel J. [Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN (United States). Dept. of Biology; Kanzaki, Mamoru [Kyoto Univ. (Japan). Graduate School of Agriculture; Kassim, Abdul Rahman [Forest Research Inst. Malaysia (FRIM), Selangor (Malaysia); Kenfack, David [Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (STRI), Panama (Panama). Center for Tropical Forest Science. Forest Global Earth Observatory; National Museum of Natural History, Washington, DC (United States). Dept. of Botany; Kibet, Staline [National Museums of Kenya, Nairobi (Kenya); Univ. of Nairobi (Kenya). Land Resource Management and Agricultural Technology Dept.; Kinnaird, Margaret F. [Mpala Research Centre, Nanyuki (Kenya); Wildlife Conservation Society, New York, NY (United States). Global Conservation Programs; Korte, Lisa [Smithsonian Conservation Biology Inst., Washington, DC (United States). National Zoological Park. Center for Conservation Education and Sustainability; Kral, Kamil [Silva Tarouca Research Inst., Brno (Czech Republic). Dept. of Forest Ecology; Kumar, Jitendra [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Computational Earth Sciences Group; Larson, Andrew J. [Univ. of Montana, Missoula, MT (United States). College of Forestry and Conservation. Dept. of Forest Management; Li, Yide [Chinese Academy of Forestry, Guangzhou (China). Research Inst. of Tropical Forestry; Li, Xiankun [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Guilin (China). Guangxi Inst. of Botany; Liu, Shirong [Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing (China). Research Inst. of Forest Ecology, Environment and Protection; Lum, Shawn K. Y. [Nanyang Technological Univ. (Singapore). National Inst. of Education. Natural Sciences and Science Education Academic Group; Lutz, James A. [Utah State Univ., Logan, UT (United States). Wildland Resources Dept.; Ma, Keping [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China). Inst. of Botany; Maddalena, Damian M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Computational Earth Sciences Group; Makana, Jean-Remy [Wildlife Conservation Society, Brazzaville (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Malhi, Yadvinder [Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom). School of Geography and the Environment. Environmental Change Inst.; Marthews, Toby [Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom). School of Geography and the Environment. Environmental Change Inst.; Mat Serudin, Rafizah [Univ. of Brunei Darussalam, Bandar Seri Begawan (Brunei). Faculty of Science. Environmental and Life Sciences; McMahon, Sean M. [Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (STRI), Panama (Panama). Center for Tropical Forest Science. Forest Global Earth Observatory; Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, MD (United States). Forest Ecology Group; McShea, William J. [Smithsonian Conservation Biology Inst., Front Royal, VA (United States). National Zoological Park. Conservation Ecology Center; Memiaghe, Hervé R. [Inst. de Recherche en Ecologie Tropicale, Libreville (Gabon). Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique et Technologique; Mi, Xiangcheng [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China). Inst. of Botany; Mizuno, Takashi [Kyoto Univ. (Japan). Graduate School of Agriculture; Morecroft, Michael [Natural England, Sheffield (United Kingdom); Myers, Jonathan A. [Washington Univ., St. Louis, MO (United States). Dept. of Biology; Novotny, Vojtech [New Guinea Binatang Research Centre, Madang (Papua New Guinea); Univ. of South Bohemia, Ceske Budejovice (Czech Republic). Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic. Faculty of Science. Biology Centre; de Oliveira, Alexandre A. [Univ. of Sao Paulo (Brazil). Inst. of Biosciences. Ecology Dept.; Ong, Perry S. [Univ. of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City (Philippines). Inst. of Biology; Orwig, David A. [Harvard Univ., Petersham, MA (United States). Harvard Forest; Ostertag, Rebecca [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States). Dept. of Biology; den Ouden, Jan [Wageningen Univ. (Netherlands). Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group; Parker, Geoffrey G. [Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, MD (United States). Forest Ecology Group; Phillips, Richard P. [Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN (United States). Dept. of Biology; Sack, Lawren [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Dept. of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; Sainge, Moses N. [Tropical Plant Exploration Group (TroPEG), Mundemba (Cameroon); Sang, Weiguo [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China). Inst. of Botany; Sri-ngernyuang, Kriangsak [Maejo Univ., Chiang Mai (Thailand). Faculty of Architecture and Environmental Design; Sukumar, Raman [Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore (India). Centre for Ecological Sciences; Sun, I-Fang [National Dong Hwa Univ., Hualian (Taiwan). Dept. of Natural Resources and Environmental Studies; Sungpalee, Witchaphart [Maejo Univ., Chiang Mai (Thailand). Faculty of Architecture and Environmental Design; Suresh, Hebbalalu Sathyanarayana [Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore (India). Centre for Ecological Sciences; Tan, Sylvester [Sarawak Forest Dept., Kuching (Malaysia); Thomas, Sean C. [Univ. of Toronto, ON (Canada). Faculty of Forestry; Thomas, Duncan W. [Washington State Univ., Vancouver, WA (United States). School of Biological Sciences; Thompson, Jill [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Penicuik, Scotland (United Kingdom); Univ. of Puerto Rico Rio Pedras, San Juan (Puerto Rico). Dept. of Environmental Science. Inst. for Tropical Ecosystem Studies; Turner, Benjamin L. [Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (STRI), Panama (Panama). Center for Tropical Forest Science. Forest Global Earth Observatory; Uriarte, Maria [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States). Dept. of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology; Valencia, Renato [Pontifical Catholic Univ. of Ecuador, Quito (Ecuador). Dept. of Biological Sciences; Vallejo, Marta I. [Inst. Alexander von Humboldt, Bogota (Colombia); Vicentini, Alberto [National Inst. of Amazonian Research (INPA), Manaus (Brazil); Vrška, Tomáš [Silva Tarouca Research Inst., Brno (Czech Republic). Dept. of Forest Ecology; Wang, Xihua [East China Normal Univ. (ECNU), Shanghai (China). School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences; Wang, Xugao [Lukuru Wildlife Research Foundation, Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo). Tshuapa-Lomami-Lualaba Project; Weiblen, George [Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (United States). Dept. of Plant Biology; Wolf, Amy [Univ. of Wisconsin, Green Bay, WI (United States). Dept. of Biology. Dept. of Natural and Applied Sciences; Xu, Han [Chinese Academy of Forestry, Guangzhou (China). Research Inst. of Tropical Forestry; Yap, Sandra [Univ. of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City (Philippines). Inst. of Biology; Zimmerman, Jess [Univ. of Puerto Rico Rio Piedras, San Juan (Puerto Rico). Dept. of Environmental Science. Inst. for Tropical Ecosystem Studies

2014-09-25

Global change is impacting forests worldwide, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services, including climate regulation. Understanding how forests respond is critical to forest conservation and climate protection. This review describes an international network of 59 long-term forest dynamic research sites useful for characterizing forest responses to global change. The broad suite of measurements made at the CTFS-ForestGEO sites make it possible to investigate the complex ways in which global change is impacting forest dynamics. ongoing research across the network is yielding insights into how and why the forests are changing, and continued monitoring will provide vital contributions to understanding worldwide forest diversity and dynamics in a era of global change

Middle School Students' Conceptual Change in Global Climate Change: Using Argumentation to Foster Knowledge Construction

Science.gov (United States)

Golden, Barry W.

2011-01-01

This research examined middle school student conceptions about global climate change (GCC) and the change these conceptions undergo during an argument driven instructional unit. The theoretical framework invoked for this study is the "framework theory" of conceptual change (Vosniadou, 2007a). This theory posits that students do not…

Providing Context for Complexity: Using Infographics and Conceptual Models to Teach Global Change Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Bean, J. R.; White, L. D.

2015-12-01

Understanding modern and historical global changes requires interdisciplinary knowledge of the physical and life sciences. The Understanding Global Change website from the UC Museum of Paleontology will use a focal infographic that unifies diverse content often taught in separate K-12 science units. This visualization tool provides scientists with a structure for presenting research within the broad context of global change, and supports educators with a framework for teaching and assessing student understanding of complex global change processes. This new approach to teaching the science of global change is currently being piloted and refined based on feedback from educators and scientists in anticipation of a 2016 website launch. Global change concepts are categorized within the infographic as causes of global change (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, volcanism), ongoing Earth system processes (e.g., ocean circulation, the greenhouse effect), and the changes scientists measure in Earth's physical and biological systems (e.g., temperature, extinctions/radiations). The infographic will appear on all website content pages and provides a template for the creation of flowcharts, which are conceptual models that allow teachers and students to visualize the interdependencies and feedbacks among processes in the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and geosphere. The development of this resource is timely given that the newly adopted Next Generation Science Standards emphasize cross-cutting concepts, including model building, and Earth system science. Flowchart activities will be available on the website to scaffold inquiry-based lessons, determine student preconceptions, and assess student content knowledge. The infographic has already served as a learning and evaluation tool during professional development workshops at UC Berkeley, Stanford University, and the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History. At these workshops, scientists and educators used the infographic

A Look at Global Climate Change Through Papal Encyclicals

Science.gov (United States)

Gutry-Korycka, Małgorzata

2017-12-01

The aim of this article is a comprehensive review of Papal Encyclicals in the context of global environmental and climatic change, against the backdrop of the activity of multinational institutions. The Encyclicals look to the future in teaching the faithful, in a manner which indicates that they are part of a goal-oriented policy, both in terms of scientific research, and concrete economic, social, and geopolitical activity. Attention has also been paid to the relationship between the activity of humankind, and global environmental change, particularly of the biotic and climatic variety. If this aggressive anthropogenic activity cannot be deemed responsible for initiating global warming, it may certainly be seen to have "encouraged" it. The impulses behind sustainable development, as well as the instruments of its implementation, and the inspiration behind the idea, have also been discussed. The achievement of this goal, necessitating the balancing of anthropological aspirations and the long-term security of the environment are also referenced in the Encyclicals.

Understanding the Changes in Global Crop Yields Through Changes in Climate and Technology

Science.gov (United States)

Najafi, Ehsan; Devineni, Naresh; Khanbilvardi, Reza M.; Kogan, Felix

2018-03-01

During the last few decades, the global agricultural production has risen and technology enhancement is still contributing to yield growth. However, population growth, water crisis, deforestation, and climate change threaten the global food security. An understanding of the variables that caused past changes in crop yields can help improve future crop prediction models. In this article, we present a comprehensive global analysis of the changes in the crop yields and how they relate to different large-scale and regional climate variables, climate change variables and technology in a unified framework. A new multilevel model for yield prediction at the country level is developed and demonstrated. The structural relationships between average yield and climate attributes as well as trends are estimated simultaneously. All countries are modeled in a single multilevel model with partial pooling to automatically group and reduce estimation uncertainties. El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), geopotential height anomalies (GPH), historical carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and country-based time series of GDP per capita as an approximation of technology measurement are used as predictors to estimate annual agricultural crop yields for each country from 1961 to 2013. Results indicate that these variables can explain the variability in historical crop yields for most of the countries and the model performs well under out-of-sample verifications. While some countries were not generally affected by climatic factors, PDSI and GPH acted both positively and negatively in different regions for crop yields in many countries.

The physical drivers of historical and 21st century global precipitation changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorpe, Livia; Andrews, Timothy

2014-01-01

Historical and 21st century global precipitation changes are investigated using data from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Atmosphere-Ocean-General-Circulation-Models (AOGCMs) and a simple energy-balance model. In the simple model, precipitation change in response to a given top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing is calculated as the sum of a response to the surface warming and a direct ‘adjustment’ response to the atmospheric radiative forcing. This simple model allows the adjustment in global mean precipitation to atmospheric radiative forcing from different forcing agents to be examined separately and emulates the AOGCMs well. During the historical period the AOGCMs simulate little global precipitation change despite an increase in global temperature—at the end of the historical period, global multi-model mean precipitation has increased by about 0.03 mm day −1 , while the global multi-model mean surface temperature has warmed by about 1 K, both relative to the pre-industrial control means. This is because there is a large direct effect from CO 2 and black carbon atmospheric forcing that opposes the increase in precipitation from surface warming. In the 21st century scenarios, the opposing effect from black carbon declines and the increase in global precipitation due to surface warming dominates. The cause of the spread between models in the global precipitation projections (which can be up to 0.25 mm day −1 ) is examined and found to come mainly from uncertainty in the climate sensitivity. The spatial distribution of precipitation change is found to be dominated by the response to surface warming. It is concluded that AOGCM global precipitation projections are in line with expectations based on our understanding of how the energy and water cycles are physically linked. (letters)

Avoiding a crisis of motivation for ocean management under global environmental change.

Science.gov (United States)

Mumby, Peter J; Sanchirico, James N; Broad, Kenneth; Beck, Michael W; Tyedmers, Peter; Morikawa, Megan; Okey, Thomas A; Crowder, Larry B; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Kelso, Denny; Kleypas, Joanie A; Munch, Stephan B; Glynn, Polita; Matthews, Kathryn; Lubchenco, Jane

2017-11-01

Climate change and ocean acidification are altering marine ecosystems and, from a human perspective, creating both winners and losers. Human responses to these changes are complex, but may result in reduced government investments in regulation, resource management, monitoring and enforcement. Moreover, a lack of peoples' experience of climate change may drive some towards attributing the symptoms of climate change to more familiar causes such as management failure. Taken together, we anticipate that management could become weaker and less effective as climate change continues. Using diverse case studies, including the decline of coral reefs, coastal defences from flooding, shifting fish stocks and the emergence of new shipping opportunities in the Arctic, we argue that human interests are better served by increased investments in resource management. But greater government investment in management does not simply mean more of "business-as-usual." Management needs to become more flexible, better at anticipating and responding to surprise, and able to facilitate change where it is desirable. A range of technological, economic, communication and governance solutions exists to help transform management. While not all have been tested, judicious application of the most appropriate solutions should help humanity adapt to novel circumstances and seek opportunity where possible. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Empowering people to change occupational behaviours to address critical global issues.

Science.gov (United States)

Ikiugu, Moses N; Westerfield, Madeline A; Lien, Jamie M; Theisen, Emily R; Cerny, Shana L; Nissen, Ranelle M

2015-06-01

The greatest threat to human well-being in this century is climate change and related global issues. We examined the effectiveness of the Modified Instrumentalism in Occupational Therapy model as a framework for facilitating occupational behaviour change to address climate change and related issues. Eleven individuals participated in this mixed-methods single-subject-design study. Data were gathered using the Modified Assessment and Intervention Instrument for Instrumentalism in Occupational Therapy and Daily Occupational Inventories. Quantitative data were analyzed using two- and three-standard deviation band methods. Qualitative data were analyzed using heuristic phenomenological procedures. Occupational performance changed for five participants. Participants' feelings shifted from frustration and helplessness to empowerment and a desire for action. They felt empowered to find occupation-based solutions to the global issues. Occupation-based interventions that increase personal awareness of the connection between occupational performance and global issues could empower people to be agents for action to ameliorate the issues.

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

2014-08-01

Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

Global and Local Discourses on Climate Change: A Perspective from the Concept of Embeddedness

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jailab Kumar Rai

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Climate change has been becoming a major order of business of all including researchers and academics. This is known that global, national and local organizations, institutions and even the individuals are partaking into the issues with their own perspectives and skills of negotiations. Despite the series of international efforts and attempts, there are also a series of national concerns, efforts and attempts in combating against the effects of global climate change. This paper is an attempt to draw on the overview of contexts and concerns of international communities for combating global climate change and its discursive influence in national policy discourses. Moreover, the paper attempts to assess the local socio-cultural discourses and dynamics of climate change in relation to global and national discourses. Finally the paper highlights on how global and local climate change knowledge networks and epistemic communities either from political processes or the socio-economic fabrics are interrelated and determinant to each other. Keywords: climate change; discourses; embeddeness; dynamics; global; local DOI: 10.3126/dsaj.v4i0.4518 Dhaulagiri Journal of Sociology and Anthropology Vol.4 2010 pp.143-180

Complexity in Climate Change Manipulation Experiments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kreyling, Juergen; Beier, Claus

2014-01-01

Climate change goes beyond gradual changes in mean conditions. It involves increased variability in climatic drivers and increased frequency and intensity of extreme events. Climate manipulation experiments are one major tool to explore the ecological impacts of climate change. Until now...... variability in temperature are ecologically important. Embracing complexity in future climate change experiments in general is therefore crucial......., precipitation experiments have dealt with temporal variability or extreme events, such as drought, resulting in a multitude of approaches and scenarios with limited comparability among studies. Temperature manipulations have mainly been focused only on warming, resulting in better comparability among studies...

Changes of Global Infectious Disease Governance in 2000s: Rise of Global Health Security and Transformation of Infectious Disease Control System in South Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eun Kyung CHOI

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This paper focus upon the changes of global infectious disease governance in 2000s and the transformation of infectious disease control system in South Korea. Traditionally, infectious disease was globally governed by the quarantine regulated by the international conventions. When an infectious disease outbreak occurred in one country, each country prevented transmission of the disease through the standardized quarantine since the installation of international sanitary convention in 1892. Republic of Korea also organized the infectious disease control system with quarantine and disease report procedure after the establishment of government. Additionally, Korea National Health Institute(KNIH was founded as research and training institute for infectious disease. However, traditional international health regulation system faced a serious challenge by the appearance of emerging and re-emerging infectious disease in 1990s. As a result, global infectious disease governance was rapidly changed under the demand to global disease surveillance and response. Moreover, global health security frame became important after 2001 bioterror and 2003 SARS outbreak. Consequently, international health regulation was fully revised in 2005, which included not only infectious disease but also public health emergency. The new international health regime was differently characterized in several aspects; reinforcement of global cooperation and surveillance, enlargement of the role of supranational and international agencies, and reorganization of national capacity. KNIH was reorganized with epidemic control and research since late 1990s. However, in 2004 Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention(KCDC was established as a disease control institution with combining quarantine and other functions after 2003 SARS outbreak. KCDC unified national function against infectious disease including prevention, protection, response and research, as a national representative in

Changes of Global Infectious Disease Governance in 2000s: Rise of Global Health Security and Transformation of Infectious Disease Control System in South Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Eun Kyung; Lee, Jong-Koo

2016-12-01

This paper focus upon the changes of global infectious disease governance in 2000s and the transformation of infectious disease control system in South Korea. Traditionally, infectious disease was globally governed by the quarantine regulated by the international conventions. When an infectious disease outbreak occurred in one country, each country prevented transmission of the disease through the standardized quarantine since the installation of international sanitary convention in 1892. Republic of Korea also organized the infectious disease control system with quarantine and disease report procedure after the establishment of government. Additionally, Korea National Health Institute(KNIH) was founded as research and training institute for infectious disease. However, traditional international health regulation system faced a serious challenge by the appearance of emerging and re-emerging infectious disease in 1990s. As a result, global infectious disease governance was rapidly changed under the demand to global disease surveillance and response. Moreover, global health security frame became important after 2001 bioterror and 2003 SARS outbreak. Consequently, international health regulation was fully revised in 2005, which included not only infectious disease but also public health emergency. The new international health regime was differently characterized in several aspects; reinforcement of global cooperation and surveillance, enlargement of the role of supranational and international agencies, and reorganization of national capacity. KNIH was reorganized with epidemic control and research since late 1990s. However, in 2004 Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention(KCDC) was established as a disease control institution with combining quarantine and other functions after 2003 SARS outbreak. KCDC unified national function against infectious disease including prevention, protection, response and research, as a national representative in disease control. The

Partnering for change in chains : on the capacity of partnerships to promote sustainable change in global agricultural commodity chains

OpenAIRE

Bitzer, V.C.

2011-01-01

Partnerships mirror the changing nature of the relationships among state, business and civil society organizations, and are often considered as innovative mechanisms to overcome single actor failure in the context of globalization. This thesis analyzes the capacity of partnerships to promote sustainable change in global agricultural commodity chains, using the global coffee, cotton and cocoa chains as main fields of application for the empirical analyses. All three chains are characterized by...

Information data systems for a global change technology initiative architecture trade study

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, Nicholas D.

1991-01-01

The Global Change Technology Initiative (GCTI) was established to develop technology which will enable use of satellite systems of Earth observations on a global scale, enable use of the observations to predictively model Earth's changes, and provide scientists, government, business, and industry with quick access to the resulting information. At LaRC, a GCTI Architecture Trade Study was undertaken to develop and evaluate the architectural implications to meet the requirements of the global change studies and the eventual implementation of a global change system. The output of the trade study are recommended technologies for the GCTI. That portion of the study concerned with the information data system is documented. The information data system for an earth global change modeling system can be very extensive and beyond affordability in terms of today's costs. Therefore, an incremental approach to gaining a system is most likely. An options approach to levels of capability versus needed technologies was developed. The primary drivers of the requirements for the information data system evaluation were the needed science products, the science measurements, the spacecraft orbits, the instruments configurations, and the spacecraft configurations and their attendant architectures. The science products requirements were not studied here; however, some consideration of the product needs were included in the evaluation results. The information data system technology items were identified from the viewpoint of the desirable overall information system characteristics.

Analyzing Regional Climate Change in Africa in a 1.5, 2, and 3°C Global Warming World

Science.gov (United States)

Weber, T.; Haensler, A.; Rechid, D.; Pfeifer, S.; Eggert, B.; Jacob, D.

2018-04-01

At the 21st session of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris, an agreement to strengthen the effort to limit the global temperature increase well below 2°C was decided. However, even if global warming is limited, some regions might still be substantially affected by climate change, especially for continents like Africa where the socio-economic conditions are strongly linked to the climatic conditions. In the paper we will discuss the analysis of indices assigned to the sectors health, agriculture, and infrastructure in a 1.5, 2, and 3°C global warming world for the African continent. For this analysis an ensemble of 10 different general circulation model-regional climate model simulations conducted in the framework of the COordinated Downscaling EXperiment for Africa was investigated. The results show that the African continent, in particular the regions between 15°S and 15°N, has to expect an increase in hot nights and longer and more frequent heat waves even if the global temperature will be kept below 2°C. These effects intensify if the global mean temperature will exceed the 2°C threshold. Moreover, the daily rainfall intensity is expected to increase toward higher global warming scenarios and will affect especially the African Sub-Saharan coastal regions.

Ecosystem-based coastal defence in the face of global change.

Science.gov (United States)

Temmerman, Stijn; Meire, Patrick; Bouma, Tjeerd J; Herman, Peter M J; Ysebaert, Tom; De Vriend, Huib J

2013-12-05

The risk of flood disasters is increasing for many coastal societies owing to global and regional changes in climate conditions, sea-level rise, land subsidence and sediment supply. At the same time, in many locations, conventional coastal engineering solutions such as sea walls are increasingly challenged by these changes and their maintenance may become unsustainable. We argue that flood protection by ecosystem creation and restoration can provide a more sustainable, cost-effective and ecologically sound alternative to conventional coastal engineering and that, in suitable locations, it should be implemented globally and on a large scale.

Characterization of spatio-temporal patterns for various GRACE- and GLDAS-born estimates for changes of global terrestrial water storage

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Tao; Wang, Chao; Yu, Zhongbo; Xu, Feng

2013-10-01

Since the launch in March 2002, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission has provided us with a new method to estimate terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations by measuring earth gravity change with unprecedented accuracy. Thus far, a number of standardized GRACE-born TWS products are published by different international research teams. However, no characterization of spatio-temporal patterns for different GRACE hydrology products from the global perspective could be found. It is still a big challenge for the science community to identify the reliable global measurement of TWS anomalies due to our limited knowledge on the true value. Hence, it is urgently necessary to evaluate the uncertainty for various global estimates of the GRACE-born TWS changes by a number of international research organizations. Toward this end, this article presents an in-depth analysis for various GRACE-born and GLDAS-based estimates for changes of global terrestrial water storage. The work characterizes the inter-annual and intra-annual variability, probability density variations, and spatial patterns among different GRACE-born TWS estimates over six major continents, and compares them with results from GLDAS simulations. The underlying causes of inconsistency between GRACE- and GLDAS-born TWS estimates are thoroughly analyzed with an aim to improve our current knowledge in monitoring global TWS change. With a comprehensive consideration of the advantages and disadvantages among GRACE- and GLDAS-born TWS anomalies, a summary is thereafter recommended as a rapid reference for scientists, end-users, and policy-makers in the practices of global TWS change research. To our best knowledge, this work is the first attempt to characterize difference and uncertainty among various GRACE-born terrestrial water storage changes over the major continents estimated by a number of international research organizations. The results can provide beneficial reference to usage of

Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change and globalization in India

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Brien, Karen; Aandahl, Guro; Tompkins, Heather [CICERO, Oslo (NO)] (and others)

2004-12-01

There is growing recognition in the human dimensions research community that climate change impact studies must take into account the effects of other ongoing global changes. Yet there has been no systematic methodology to study climate change vulnerability in the context of multiple stressors. Using the example of Indian agriculture, this paper presents a methodology for investigating regional vulnerability to climate change in combination with other global stressors. This method, which relies on both vulnerability mapping and local- level case studies, may be used to assess differential vulnerability for any particular sector within a nation or region, and it can serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions. (Author)

Socio-economic data for global environmental change research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Otto, Ilona; Biewald, Anne; Coumou, Dim

2015-01-01

Subnational socio-economic datasets are required if we are to assess the impacts of global environmental changes and to improve adaptation responses. Institutional and community efforts should concentrate on standardization of data collection methodologies, free public access, and geo-referencing....

Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Xia; Gao, Qiong; Peng, Changhui; Cui, Xuefeng; Liu, Yinghui; Jiang, Li

2014-03-01

With rapid economic development and urbanization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model (GLOBFOOD) and regional spatial allocation model (CLUE). The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socioeconomic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

Potential impact of global climate change on benthic deep-sea microbes.

Science.gov (United States)

Danovaro, Roberto; Corinaldesi, Cinzia; Dell'Anno, Antonio; Rastelli, Eugenio

2017-12-15

Benthic deep-sea environments are the largest ecosystem on Earth, covering ∼65% of the Earth surface. Microbes inhabiting this huge biome at all water depths represent the most abundant biological components and a relevant portion of the biomass of the biosphere, and play a crucial role in global biogeochemical cycles. Increasing evidence suggests that global climate changes are affecting also deep-sea ecosystems, both directly (causing shifts in bottom-water temperature, oxygen concentration and pH) and indirectly (through changes in surface oceans' productivity and in the consequent export of organic matter to the seafloor). However, the responses of the benthic deep-sea biota to such shifts remain largely unknown. This applies particularly to deep-sea microbes, which include bacteria, archaea, microeukaryotes and their viruses. Understanding the potential impacts of global change on the benthic deep-sea microbial assemblages and the consequences on the functioning of the ocean interior is a priority to better forecast the potential consequences at global scale. Here we explore the potential changes in the benthic deep-sea microbiology expected in the coming decades using case studies on specific systems used as test models. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Earth science information: Planning for the integration and use of global change information

Science.gov (United States)

Lousma, Jack R.

1992-01-01

Activities and accomplishments of the first six months of the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN's) 1992 technical program have focused on four main missions: (1) the development and implementation of plans for initiation of the Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) as part of the EOSDIS Program; (2) the pursuit and development of a broad-based global change information cooperative by providing systems analysis and integration between natural science and social science data bases held by numerous federal agencies and other sources; (3) the fostering of scientific research into the human dimensions of global change and providing integration between natural science and social science data and information; and (4) the serving of CIESIN as a gateway for global change data and information distribution through development of the Global Change Research Information Office and other comprehensive knowledge sharing systems.

National Institute for Global Environmental Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Werth, G.C.

1992-04-01

This document is the Semi-Annual Report of the National Institute for Global Environmental Change for the reporting period July 1 to December 31, 1991. The report is in two parts. Part I presents the mission of the Institute, examples of progress toward that mission, a brief description of the revised management plan, and the financial report. Part II presents the statements of the Regional Center Directors along with progress reports of the projects written by the researchers themselves.

National Institute for Global Environmental Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Werth, G.C.

1992-01-01

This document is the Semi-Annual Report of the National Institute for Global Environmental Change for the reporting period July 1 to December 31, 1991. The report is in two parts. Part I presents the mission of the Institute, examples of progress toward that mission, a brief description of the revised management plan, and the financial report. Part II presents the statements of the Regional Center Directors along with progress reports of the projects written by the researchers themselves

A review of Thailand's strategies for global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boonchalermkit, S.

1994-01-01

Thailand is greatly concerned about global climate change, which is caused primarily by the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and the release of chlorofluorocarbons. The country itself is not currently a major contributor to global climate change. However, as Thailand's economy expands and its burning of fossil fuels increases, the country's contribution to global climate change could increase. Thailand's use of primary energy supplies grew at an average rate of 13.4 percent per year in the period 1985 to 1990. The rapid, sustained growth was due to the overall pace of growth in the economy and the expansion of industrial, construction, and transportation activities. The primary energy demand was approximately 31,600 kilotons of oil equivalent (KTOE) in 1990. The transportation sector accounted for the largest proportion of energy demand at 30 percent. Within the next 15 years, the power sector is expected to overtake the transportation sector as the largest consumer of energy. Petroleum is currently the predominant source of energy in Thailand, accounting for 56 percent of the primary energy demand. Thailand recognizes that it has an important part to play in finding solutions to minimizing emissions of greenhouse gases and identifying viable response strategies. Thus, in this paper the authors will present several policy strategies relevant to climate change in Thailand and discuss how they have been implemented and enforced. Policies concerning forestry, energy, and environment are reviewed in detail in this paper

Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change

Science.gov (United States)

Larsen, Stefano; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.; Marti Roca, Maria Eugenia

2016-01-01

Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream–terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream–riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream–terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic

Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schröter, D.; Cramer, W.; Leemans, R.; Prentice, I.C.; Araujo, M.B.; Arnell, N.W.; Bondeau, A.; Brugmann, H.; Carter, T.R.; Gracia, C.A.; Vega-Leinert, de la A.C.; Erhard, M.; Ewert, F.; Glendining, M.; House, J.I.; Kankaanpää, S.; Klein, R.J.T.; Lavorel, S.; Lindner, M.; Metzger, M.J.; Meyer, J.; Mitchell, T.; Reginster, I.; Rounsevell, M.; Sabate, S.; Stich, S.; Smith, B.; Smith, J.; Smith, P.; Sykes, M.T.; Thonicke, K.; Thuiller, W.; Tuck, G.; Zaehle, S.; Zierl, B.

2005-01-01

Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in

Global Governance, Educational Change

Science.gov (United States)

Mundy, Karen

2007-01-01

In the last half decade, a rising literature has focused on the idea that processes of economic, political and social globalization require analysis in terms of governance at the global level. It is argued in this article that emerging forms of global governance have produced significant challenges to conventional conceptions of international…

EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON CORAL REEF ECOSYSTEMS

Science.gov (United States)

Corals and coral reefs of the Caribbean and through the world are deteriorating at an accelerated rate. Several stressors are believed to contrbute to this decline, including global changes in atmospheric gases and land use patterns. In particular, warmer water temperatures and...

Environmental variation and population responses to global change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lawson, Callum R.; Vindenes, Yngvild; Bailey, Liam; van de Pol, Martijn

2015-01-01

Species' responses to environmental changes such as global warming are affected not only by trends in mean conditions, but also by natural and human-induced environmental fluctuations. Methods are needed to predict how such environmental variation affects ecological and evolutionary processes, in

Global change in the trophic functioning of marine food webs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Maureaud, Aurore; Gascuel, Didier; Colléter, Mathieu

2017-01-01

and life history traits of marine species, we tested the hypothesis that anthropogenic ecological impacts may have led to changes in the global parameters defining the transfers of biomass within the food web. First, we developed two indicators to assess such changes: the Time Cumulated Indicator (TCI......The development of fisheries in the oceans, and other human drivers such as climate warming, have led to changes in species abundance, assemblages, trophic interactions, and ultimately in the functioning of marine food webs. Here, using a trophodynamic approach and global databases of catches......) measuring the residence time of biomass within the food web, and the Efficiency Cumulated Indicator (ECI) quantifying the fraction of secondary production reaching the top of the trophic chain. Then, we assessed, at the large marine ecosystem scale, the worldwide change of these two indicators over the 1950...

A contemporary decennial global Landsat sample of changing agricultural field sizes

Science.gov (United States)

White, Emma; Roy, David

2014-05-01

Agriculture has caused significant human induced Land Cover Land Use (LCLU) change, with dramatic cropland expansion in the last century and significant increases in productivity over the past few decades. Satellite data have been used for agricultural applications including cropland distribution mapping, crop condition monitoring, crop production assessment and yield prediction. Satellite based agricultural applications are less reliable when the sensor spatial resolution is small relative to the field size. However, to date, studies of agricultural field size distributions and their change have been limited, even though this information is needed to inform the design of agricultural satellite monitoring systems. Moreover, the size of agricultural fields is a fundamental description of rural landscapes and provides an insight into the drivers of rural LCLU change. In many parts of the world field sizes may have increased. Increasing field sizes cause a subsequent decrease in the number of fields and therefore decreased landscape spatial complexity with impacts on biodiversity, habitat, soil erosion, plant-pollinator interactions, and impacts on the diffusion of herbicides, pesticides, disease pathogens, and pests. The Landsat series of satellites provide the longest record of global land observations, with 30m observations available since 1982. Landsat data are used to examine contemporary field size changes in a period (1980 to 2010) when significant global agricultural changes have occurred. A multi-scale sampling approach is used to locate global hotspots of field size change by examination of a recent global agricultural yield map and literature review. Nine hotspots are selected where significant field size change is apparent and where change has been driven by technological advancements (Argentina and U.S.), abrupt societal changes (Albania and Zimbabwe), government land use and agricultural policy changes (China, Malaysia, Brazil), and/or constrained by

Climate Change, Global Food Markets, and Urban Unrest

Science.gov (United States)

2013-02-01

Francis Gavin 512-471-6267 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) Standard Form 298 (Rev 8/98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 - Climate Change, Global Food...Russia led then-President Dmitry Medvedev to impose export restrictions on wheat, barley, and rye . Food security is fundamental to human security. Prior...how much food is grown and where it is grown. Second, climate change will increase the frequency of localized crop failures due to more frequent

Bringing a Realistic Global Climate Modeling Experience to a Broader Audience

Science.gov (United States)

Sohl, L. E.; Chandler, M. A.; Zhou, J.

2010-12-01

EdGCM, the Educational Global Climate Model, was developed with the goal of helping students learn about climate change and climate modeling by giving them the ability to run a genuine NASA global climate model (GCM) on a desktop computer. Since EdGCM was first publicly released in January 2005, tens of thousands of users on seven continents have downloaded the software. EdGCM has been utilized by climate science educators from middle school through graduate school levels, and on occasion even by researchers who otherwise do not have ready access to climate model at national labs in the U.S. and elsewhere. The EdGCM software is designed to walk users through the same process a climate scientist would use in designing and running simulations, and analyzing and visualizing GCM output. Although the current interface design gives users a clear view of some of the complexities involved in using a climate model, it can be daunting for users whose main focus is on climate science rather than modeling per se. As part of the work funded by NASA’s Global Climate Change Education (GCCE) program, we will begin modifications to the user interface that will improve the accessibility of EdGCM to a wider array of users, especially at the middle school and high school levels, by: 1) Developing an automated approach (a “wizard”) to simplify the user experience in setting up new climate simulations; 2) Produce a catalog of “rediscovery experiments” that allow users to reproduce published climate model results, and in some cases compare model projections to real world data; and 3) Enhance distance learning and online learning opportunities through the development of a web-based interface. The prototypes for these modifications will then be presented to educators belonging to an EdGCM Users Group for feedback, so that we can further refine the EdGCM software, and thus deliver the tools and materials educators want and need across a wider range of learning environments.

Globalized conflicts, globalized responses. Changing manners of contestation among indigenous communities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Benyei, Petra; Turreira Garcia, Nerea; Orta-Martínez, Martí

2017-01-01

In a globalized world, environmental conflicts affecting indigenous communities (including hunter-gatherer groups) have intensified and grown in their transnational character. These changes have affected the choice of manners of contestation of these groups, favouring in some cases the emergence...... activities and confront conflicts through a truly bottom-up approach. The chapter ends discussing how, despite the potential of such new manners of contestation, the power imbalances that currently underpin many indigenous conflicts are first to be addressed....

The impact of climate change on the global wine industry: Challenges & solutions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michelle Renée Mozell

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This paper explores the impact of climate change upon the global production of winegrapes and wine. It includes a review of the literature on the cause and effects of climate change, as well as illustrations of the specific challenges global warming may bring to the production of winegrapes and wine. More importantly, this paper provides some practical solutions that industry professionals can take to mitigate and adapt to the coming change in both vineyards and wineries.

Changes in crop yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Ostberg, Sebastian; Schewe, Jacob; Childers, Katelin; Frieler, Katja

2018-05-01

An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the policy discussion about mitigation targets, as well as for the economic evaluation of climate change impacts. Integrated assessment models often use global mean temperature change (ΔGMT) as a sole measure of climate change and, therefore, need to describe impacts as a function of ΔGMT. There is already a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with ΔGMT. It is less clear to what extent more complex biological or physiological impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of ΔGMT, even though such impacts may often be more directly relevant for human livelihoods than changes in the physical climate. Here we show that crop yield projections can indeed be described in terms of ΔGMT to a large extent, allowing for a fast estimation of crop yield changes for emissions scenarios not originally covered by climate and crop model projections. We use an ensemble of global gridded crop model simulations for the four major staple crops to show that the scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of ΔGMT. In contrast, the variance is dominated by the spread across crop models. Varying CO2 concentrations are shown to explain only a minor component of crop yield variability at different levels of global warming. In addition, we find that the variability in crop yields is expected to increase with increasing warming in many world regions. We provide, for each crop model, geographical patterns of mean yield changes that allow for a simplified description of yield changes under arbitrary pathways of global mean temperature and CO2 changes, without the need for additional climate and crop model simulations.

Downscaling drivers of global environmental change: Enabling use of global SRES scenarios at the national and grid levels

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Vuuren, D.P.; Lucas, P.L.; Hilderink, H.

2007-01-01

Global environmental change scenarios typically distinguish between about 10–20 global regions. However, various studies need scenario information at a higher level of spatial detail. This paper presents a set of algorithms that aim to fill this gap by providing downscaled scenario data for

Global Energy Transitions and the Challenge of Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Riahi, K.

2008-01-01

Global emissions of greenhouse-gases have increased markedly as a result of human activities since pre-industrial times. This increase in emissions has lead to unequivocal global warming, which is evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. Reducing the risk of irreversible climate impacts requires thus the mitigation of global GHG emissions aiming at the long-term stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations. Achieving this goal translates into the need of reducing emissions to virtually zero over long time-frames. Yet international agreement on a long-term climate policy target remains a distant prospect, due to both scientific uncertainty and political disagreement on the appropriate balance between mitigation costs and reduced risks of dangerous impacts. At the same time, growing emissions of greenhouse gases continue to increase the amount of climate change we are committed to over the long term. Over the next few decades, these growing emissions may make some potentially desirable long term goals unattainable. Recent analysis conducted at IIASA indicates the need of major energy transitions over the next few decades. For example, staying below the target suggested by the European Union of 2 C warming (with just a 50% likelihood) will require the massive deployment of zero-carbon energy by 2050, and a tippling of the contribution of zero-carbon energy globally to more than 60% by that time. Although there are large uncertainties with respect to the deployment of individual future technologies, there is strong evidence that no single mitigation measure alone would be sufficient for achieving the stabilization of GHG concentrations at low levels. A wide portfolio of technologies across all GHG-intensive sectors is needed for cost-effective emissions reductions. The bulk of these emissions reductions would need to come from the energy sector, with

Experts' workshop on critical issues in the science of global climate change. Proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

A summary is given of the International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association's Workshop on 'Critical issues in the science of global climate change' held in 1994. The topics of the panel sessions were (1) modelling global climate change: capabilities and limitations; (2)the physics and chemistry of greenhouse gas concentrations; (3) other factors in predicting climate change; and (4) ecosystem response. (UK)

New ecology, global change, and forest politics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sampson, N.

1993-01-01

Ecosystems constantly change. Some changes are caused by natural conditions that evolve at a very slow pace including climate change, species evolution and migration, and soil formation. Forests don't always respond to gradual changes in gradual ways, though gradual change may be hidden for years within the normal variation in the ecosystem. The industrial age has resulted in a rapid and continuing buildup of atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbons which trap heat in the greenhouse effect. Industrial processes also emit oxides of nitrogen and sulfur that change atmospheric chemistry and alter the nutrient input into ecosystems. Natural forests face a hard time adjusting to a rate of climatic change that is 3 to 10 times faster than species can migrate and that increases the occurrence of major windstorms. In the forest ecosystem where trees are removed or destroyed under rapid climatic change, conditions may not return to their original state, even if we try to restore it. When the ecosystem changes faster than the bureaucracy of the management agency, a serious problem exists. New understandings of ecology and global change may force new ways of thinking in these situations

Openness to experience and creativity: When does global citizenship matter?

Science.gov (United States)

Tidikis, Viktoria; Dunbar, Nora D

2017-10-04

The relationship between the openness to experience trait (OTE) and creativity has been well documented in previous research. Likewise, the global citizenship construct has theoretical overlap with both OTE and creativity. We hypothesised global citizenship would make a unique contribution to explaining variance in five types of creativity (self/everyday, scholarly, performance, mechanical/scientific and artistic), above and beyond the contribution of OTE. Participants were predominantly female, European American, traditionally aged college students (N = 407). Global citizenship prosocial outcomes explained unique variance in self/everyday (sr 2  = .10), scholarly (sr 2  = .03) and mechanical/scientific (sr 2  = .03) creativity. Results are discussed in terms of dual processes theories of cognition. © 2017 International Union of Psychological Science.

The petroleum industry's response to climate change: The role of the IPIECA Global Climate Change Working Group

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lemlin, J.S.; Graham Bryce, I.

1994-01-01

IPIECA formed the Global Climate Change Working Group in 1988 to coordinate members' efforts to understand the global climate change issue, to promote support for education and research, and to serve as the focus for engaging with international activities. The working group has sponsored a number of activities, including seminars and workshops. The Lisbon Experts Workshop on Socio-Economic Assessment of Climate Change in 1993 represents the most recent IPIECA forum for interaction between industry experts and those involved in the production of the IPCC 1995 Second Assessment Report. This workshop is described in the article. (author)

Outcome and value uncertainties in global-change policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hammitt, J.K.

1995-01-01

Choices among environmental policies can be informed by analysis of the potential physical, biological, and social outcomes of alternative choices, and analysis of social preferences among these outcomes. Frequently, however, the consequences of alternative policies cannot be accurately predicted because of substantial outcome uncertainties concerning physical, chemical, biological, and social processes linking policy choices to consequences. Similarly, assessments of social preferences among alternative outcomes are limited by value uncertainties arising from limitations of moral principles, the absence of economic markets for many environmental attributes, and other factors. Outcome and value uncertainties relevant to global-change policy are described and their magnitudes are examined for two cases: stratospheric-ozone depletion and global climate change. Analysis of information available in the mid 1980s, when international ozone regulations were adopted, suggests that contemporary uncertainties surrounding CFC emissions and the atmospheric response were so large that plausible ozone depletion, absent regulation, ranged from negligible to catastrophic, a range that exceeded the plausible effect of the regulations considered. Analysis of climate change suggests that, important as outcome uncertainties are, uncertainties about values may be even more important for policy choice. 53 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs

Global energy scenarios, climate change and sustainable development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2003-01-01

Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments may affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals; such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. They can help explore different transitions toward sustainable development paths and alternative energy perspectives in general. The considerable differences in expected total energy requirements among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate effects of different policy frameworks, changes in human behavior and investments in the future, as well as alternative unfolding of the main scenario driving forces such as demographic transitions, economic development and technological change. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for achieving further social and economic development in the world. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies. In general, significant policy and behavioral changes will be needed during the next few decades to achieve more sustainable development paths and mitigate climate change toward the end of the century. (au)

Australian Medical Students' Association Global Health Essay Competition - Global climate change, geo-engineering and human health.

Science.gov (United States)

Boyages, Costa S

2013-10-07

Rio+20's proposed Sustainable Development Goals have the potential to redefine the course of international action on climate change. They recognise that environmental health is inextricably linked with human health, and that environmental sustainability is of paramount importance in safeguarding global health. Competition entrants were asked to discuss ways of making global health a central component of international sustainable development initiatives and environmental policy, using one or two concrete examples

Joint science academies' statement:Global response to climate change

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2005-01-01

@@ Climate change is real There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world's climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring1.

'Earth system governance' as a crosscutting theme of global change research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Biermann, F.

2007-01-01

In 2001, the four global change research programmes 'urgently' called for 'an ethical framework for global stewardship and strategies for Earth System management'. Yet this notion of 'earth system management' remains vaguely defined: It is too elusive for natural scientists, and too ambitious or too

ASM Lecture Series: Global Warming and Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowland, F. S.

2010-01-01

The melting of ice and permafrost in the north polar region and the shrinking of the tropical glaciers are signals that global warming is no longer solely a warning about the future, but changes which have already arrived. The initial effects of this warming are noticeably present, and the concerns are now of substantial climate change in the near future. Modeling of the consequences on the future atmosphere from increased release of greenhouse gases and some of the possible consequences of climate change, such as rising sea levels and melting of the north polar ice, are discussed. (author)

Depictions of global environmental change in science fiction : an overview of educational applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kadonaga, L. [Victoria Univ., BC (Canada). Dept. of Geography

2000-06-01

This paper examined how the use of science fiction books and movies can be used as a tool to educate the public. Narratives encourage interest in global environmental changes and can help demystify how science works. Although most science fiction depictions of global environmental change are outdated and oversimplified, the genre can encourage discussion of ecological and social impacts. Writers of science fiction consider both natural systems and human societies, anticipating the work of impacts researchers. It was argued that while both science fiction writers and global change researchers require knowledge and creativity to construct realistic extrapolations, a well-written science fiction book is likely to reach a larger audience. Science fiction books emphasize that climate projections are intended as warnings. If properly handled, they can improve public awareness of issues such as global warming and climatic change. It was suggested that collaboration between researchers and science fiction writers could produce some interesting work. 48 refs.

1988 Pilot Institute on Global Change on trace gases and the biosphere

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eddy, J.A.; Moore, B. III

1998-07-01

This proposal seeks multi-agency funding to conduct an international, multidisciplinary 1988 Pilot Institute on Global Change to take place from August 7 through 21, 1988, on the topic: Trace Gases and the Biosphere. The institute, to be held in Snowmass, Colorado, is envisioned as a pilot version of a continuing series of institutes on Global Change (IGC). This proposal seeks support for the 1988 pilot institute only. The concept and structure for the continuing series, and the definition of the 1988 pilot institute, were developed at an intensive and multidisciplinary Summer Institute Planning Meeting in Boulder, Colorado, on August 24--25, 1987. The theme for the 1988 PIGC, Trace Gases and the Biosphere, will focus a concerted, high-level multidisciplinary effort on a scientific problem central to the Global Change Program. Dramatic year-to-year increases in the global concentrations of radiatively-active trace gases such as methane and carbon dioxide are now well documented. The predicted climatic effects of these changes lend special urgency to efforts to study the biospheric sources and sinks of these gases and to clarify their interactions and role in the geosphere-biosphere system.

Climate change impacts on global food security.

Science.gov (United States)

Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

2013-08-02

Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

Experimental strategies to assess the biological ramifications of multiple drivers of global ocean change-A review.

Science.gov (United States)

Boyd, Philip W; Collins, Sinead; Dupont, Sam; Fabricius, Katharina; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre; Havenhand, Jonathan; Hutchins, David A; Riebesell, Ulf; Rintoul, Max S; Vichi, Marcello; Biswas, Haimanti; Ciotti, Aurea; Gao, Kunshan; Gehlen, Marion; Hurd, Catriona L; Kurihara, Haruko; McGraw, Christina M; Navarro, Jorge M; Nilsson, Göran E; Passow, Uta; Pörtner, Hans-Otto

2018-06-01

Marine life is controlled by multiple physical and chemical drivers and by diverse ecological processes. Many of these oceanic properties are being altered by climate change and other anthropogenic pressures. Hence, identifying the influences of multifaceted ocean change, from local to global scales, is a complex task. To guide policy-making and make projections of the future of the marine biosphere, it is essential to understand biological responses at physiological, evolutionary and ecological levels. Here, we contrast and compare different approaches to multiple driver experiments that aim to elucidate biological responses to a complex matrix of ocean global change. We present the benefits and the challenges of each approach with a focus on marine research, and guidelines to navigate through these different categories to help identify strategies that might best address research questions in fundamental physiology, experimental evolutionary biology and community ecology. Our review reveals that the field of multiple driver research is being pulled in complementary directions: the need for reductionist approaches to obtain process-oriented, mechanistic understanding and a requirement to quantify responses to projected future scenarios of ocean change. We conclude the review with recommendations on how best to align different experimental approaches to contribute fundamental information needed for science-based policy formulation. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.