WorldWideScience

Sample records for global budget estimates

  1. Mangrove production and carbon sinks: A revision of global budget estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouillon, S.; Borges, A.V.; Castaneda-Moya, E.; Diele, K.; Dittmar, T.; Duke, N.C.; Kristensen, E.; Lee, S.-Y.; Marchand, C.; Middelburg, J.J.; Rivera-Monroy, V. H.; Smith, T. J.; Twilley, R.R.

    2008-01-01

    Mangrove forests are highly productive but globally threatened coastal ecosystems, whose role in the carbon budget of the coastal zone has long been debated. Here we provide a comprehensive synthesis of the available data on carbon fluxes in mangrove ecosystems. A reassessment of global mangrove primary production from the literature results in a conservative estimate of ???-218 ?? 72 Tg C a-1. When using the best available estimates of various carbon sinks (organic carbon export, sediment burial, and mineralization), it appears that >50% of the carbon fixed by mangrove vegetation is unaccounted for. This unaccounted carbon sink is conservatively estimated at ??? 112 ?? 85 Tg C a-1, equivalent in magnitude to ??? 30-40% of the global riverine organic carbon input to the coastal zone. Our analysis suggests that mineralization is severely underestimated, and that the majority of carbon export from mangroves to adjacent waters occurs as dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). CO2 efflux from sediments and creek waters and tidal export of DIC appear to be the major sinks. These processes are quantitatively comparable in magnitude to the unaccounted carbon sink in current budgets, but are not yet adequately constrained with the limited published data available so far. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

  2. Global carbon budget 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Quere, C.; Moriarty, R.; Jones, S.D.; Boden, T.A.; Peters, G.P.; Andrew, R.M.; Andres, R.J.; Ciais, P.; Bopp, L.; Maignan, F.; Viovy, N.

    2014-01-01

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO 2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO 2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990's, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO 2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO 2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO 2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as ±1, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003-2012), EFF was 8.6±0.4 GtC yr -1 , ELUC 0.9±0.5 GtC yr -1 , GATM 4.3±0

  3. Global Carbon Budget 2017

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Le Quere, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Sitch, Stephen; Pongratz, Julia; Manning, Andrew C.; Korsbakken, Jan Ivar; Peters, Glen P.; Canadell, Josep G.; Jackson, Robert B.; Boden, Thomas A.; Tans, Pieter P.; Andrews, Oliver D.; Arora, Vivek K.; Bakker, Dorothee C. E.; Barbero, Leticia; Becker, Meike; Betts, Richard A.; Bopp, Laurent; Chevallier, Frederic; Chini, Louise P.; Ciais, Philippe; Cosca, Catherine E.; Cross, Jessica; Currie, Kim; Gasser, Thomas; Harris, Ian; Hauck, Judith; Haverd, Vanessa; Houghton, Richard A.; Hunt, Christopher W.; Hurtt, George; Ilyina, Tatiana; Jain, Atul K.; Kato, Etsushi; Kautz, Markus; Keeling, Ralph F.; Goldewijk, Kees Klein; Koertzinger, Arne; Landschuetzer, Peter; Lefevre, Nathalie; Lenton, Andrew; Lienert, Sebastian; Lima, Ivan; Lombardozzi, Danica; Metzl, Nicolas; Millero, Frank; Monteiro, Pedro M. S.; Munro, David R.; Nabel, Julia E. M. S.; Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro; Nojiri, Yukihiro; Padin, X. Antonio; Peregon, Anna; Pfeil, Benjamin; Pierrot, Denis; Poulter, Benjamin; Rehder, Gregor; Reimer, Janet; Roedenbeck, Christian; Schwinger, Jorg; Seferian, Roland; Skjelvan, Ingunn; Stocker, Benjamin D.; Tian, Hanqin; Tilbrook, Bronte; Tubiello, Francesco N.; van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T.; van der Werf, Guido R.; van Heuven, Steven; Viovy, Nicolas; Vuichard, Nicolas; Walker, Anthony P.; Watson, Andrew J.; Wiltshire, Andrew J.; Zaehle, Soenke; Zhu, Dan

    2018-01-01

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere - the "global carbon budget" - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project

  4. Audit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballantyne, A. P.; Andres, R.; Houghton, R.; Stocker, B. D.; Wanninkhof, R.; Anderegg, W.; Cooper, L. A.; DeGrandpre, M.; Tans, P. P.; Miller, J. B.; Alden, C.; White, J. W. C.

    2015-04-01

    Over the last 5 decades monitoring systems have been developed to detect changes in the accumulation of carbon (C) in the atmosphere and ocean; however, our ability to detect changes in the behavior of the global C cycle is still hindered by measurement and estimate errors. Here we present a rigorous and flexible framework for assessing the temporal and spatial components of estimate errors and their impact on uncertainty in net C uptake by the biosphere. We present a novel approach for incorporating temporally correlated random error into the error structure of emission estimates. Based on this approach, we conclude that the 2σ uncertainties of the atmospheric growth rate have decreased from 1.2 Pg C yr-1 in the 1960s to 0.3 Pg C yr-1 in the 2000s due to an expansion of the atmospheric observation network. The 2σ uncertainties in fossil fuel emissions have increased from 0.3 Pg C yr-1 in the 1960s to almost 1.0 Pg C yr-1 during the 2000s due to differences in national reporting errors and differences in energy inventories. Lastly, while land use emissions have remained fairly constant, their errors still remain high and thus their global C uptake uncertainty is not trivial. Currently, the absolute errors in fossil fuel emissions rival the total emissions from land use, highlighting the extent to which fossil fuels dominate the global C budget. Because errors in the atmospheric growth rate have decreased faster than errors in total emissions have increased, a ~20% reduction in the overall uncertainty of net C global uptake has occurred. Given all the major sources of error in the global C budget that we could identify, we are 93% confident that terrestrial C uptake has increased and 97% confident that ocean C uptake has increased over the last 5 decades. Thus, it is clear that arguably one of the most vital ecosystem services currently provided by the biosphere is the continued removal of approximately half of atmospheric CO2 emissions from the atmosphere

  5. Global Carbon Budget 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Sitch, Stephen; Pongratz, Julia; Manning, Andrew C.; Korsbakken, Jan Ivar; Peters, Glen P.; Canadell, Josep G.; Jackson, Robert B.; Boden, Thomas A.; Tans, Pieter P.; Andrews, Oliver D.; Arora, Vivek K.; Bakker, Dorothee C. E.; Barbero, Leticia; Becker, Meike; Betts, Richard A.; Bopp, Laurent; Chevallier, Frédéric; Chini, Louise P.; Ciais, Philippe; Cosca, Catherine E.; Cross, Jessica; Currie, Kim; Gasser, Thomas; Harris, Ian; Hauck, Judith; Haverd, Vanessa; Houghton, Richard A.; Hunt, Christopher W.; Hurtt, George; Ilyina, Tatiana; Jain, Atul K.; Kato, Etsushi; Kautz, Markus; Keeling, Ralph F.; Klein Goldewijk, Kees; Körtzinger, Arne; Landschützer, Peter; Lefèvre, Nathalie; Lenton, Andrew; Lienert, Sebastian; Lima, Ivan; Lombardozzi, Danica; Metzl, Nicolas; Millero, Frank; Monteiro, Pedro M. S.; Munro, David R.; Nabel, Julia E. M. S.; Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro; Nojiri, Yukihiro; Padin, X. Antonio; Peregon, Anna; Pfeil, Benjamin; Pierrot, Denis; Poulter, Benjamin; Rehder, Gregor; Reimer, Janet; Rödenbeck, Christian; Schwinger, Jörg; Séférian, Roland; Skjelvan, Ingunn; Stocker, Benjamin D.; Tian, Hanqin; Tilbrook, Bronte; Tubiello, Francesco N.; van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T.; van der Werf, Guido R.; van Heuven, Steven; Viovy, Nicolas; Vuichard, Nicolas; Walker, Anthony P.; Watson, Andrew J.; Wiltshire, Andrew J.; Zaehle, Sönke; Zhu, Dan

    2018-03-01

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere - the global carbon budget - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007-2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr-1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr-1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr-1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr-1, with a small BIM of -0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007-2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND

  6. Global Carbon Budget 2017

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Le Quéré

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2 emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the global carbon budget – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC, mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM, the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016, EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a small BIM of −0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be

  7. Global Carbon Budget 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quéré, Corinne Le; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Sitch, Stephen; Korsbakken, Jan Ivar; Peters, Glen P.; Manning, Andrew C.; Boden, Thomas A.; Tans, Pieter P.; Houghton, Richard A.; hide

    2016-01-01

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere the global carbon budget is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1(sigma), reflecting the current capacity to characterize the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006-2015), EFF was 9

  8. Global Carbon Budget 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Sitch, Stephen; Korsbakken, Jan Ivar; Peters, Glen P.; Manning, Andrew C.; Boden, Thomas A.; Tans, Pieter P.; Houghton, Richard A.; Keeling, Ralph F.; Alin, Simone; Andrews, Oliver D.; Anthoni, Peter; Barbero, Leticia; Bopp, Laurent; Chevallier, Frédéric; Chini, Louise P.; Ciais, Philippe; Currie, Kim; Delire, Christine; Doney, Scott C.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gkritzalis, Thanos; Harris, Ian; Hauck, Judith; Haverd, Vanessa; Hoppema, Mario; Klein Goldewijk, Kees; Jain, Atul K.; Kato, Etsushi; Körtzinger, Arne; Landschützer, Peter; Lefèvre, Nathalie; Lenton, Andrew; Lienert, Sebastian; Lombardozzi, Danica; Melton, Joe R.; Metzl, Nicolas; Millero, Frank; Monteiro, Pedro M. S.; Munro, David R.; Nabel, Julia E. M. S.; Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro; O'Brien, Kevin; Olsen, Are; Omar, Abdirahman M.; Ono, Tsuneo; Pierrot, Denis; Poulter, Benjamin; Rödenbeck, Christian; Salisbury, Joe; Schuster, Ute; Schwinger, Jörg; Séférian, Roland; Skjelvan, Ingunn; Stocker, Benjamin D.; Sutton, Adrienne J.; Takahashi, Taro; Tian, Hanqin; Tilbrook, Bronte; van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T.; van der Werf, Guido R.; Viovy, Nicolas; Walker, Anthony P.; Wiltshire, Andrew J.; Zaehle, Sönke

    2016-11-01

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere - the "global carbon budget" - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006-2015), EFF was 9

  9. Global Carbon Budget 2016

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Sitch, Stephen; Ivar Korsbakken, Jan; Peters, Glen P.; Manning, Andrew C.; Boden, Thomas A.; Tans, Pieter P.; Houghton, Richard A.; Keeling, Ralph F.; Alin, Simone; Andrews, Oliver D.; Anthoni, Peter; Barbero, Leticia; Bopp, Laurent; Chevallier, Frédéric; Chini, Louise P.; Ciais, Philippe; Currie, Kim; Delire, Christine; Doney, Scott C.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gkritzalis, Thanos; Harris, Ian A; Hauck, Judith; Haverd, Vanessa; Hoppema, Mario; Klein Goldewijk, Kees; Jain, Atul K.; Kato, Etsushi; Körtzinger, Arne; Landschützer, Peter; Lefèvre, Nathalie; Lenton, Andrew; Lienert, Sebastian; Lombardozzi, Danica; Melton, Joe R.; Metzl, Nicolas; Millero, Frank; Monteiro, Pedro M S; Munro, David R.; Nabel, Julia E M S; Nakaoka, Shin Ichiro; O'Brien, Kevin; Olsen, Are; Omar, Abdirahman M.; Ono, Tsuneo; Pierrot, Denis; Poulter, Benjamin; Rödenbeck, Christian; Salisbury, Joe; Schuster, Ute; Schwinger, Jörg; Séférian, Roland; Skjelvan, Ingunn; Stocker, Benjamin D.; Sutton, Adrienne J.; Takahashi, Taro; Tian, Hanqin; Tilbrook, Bronte; Van Der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T.; Van Der Werf, Guido R.; Viovy, Nicolas; Walker, Anthony P.; Wiltshire, Andrew J.; Zaehle, Sönke

    2016-01-01

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere-the "global carbon budget"-is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future

  10. Global Carbon Budget 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Canadell, J. G.; Sitch, S.; Korsbakken, J. I.; Friedlingstein, P.; Peters, G. P.; Andres, R. J.; Boden, T. A.; Houghton, R. A.; House, J. I.; Keeling, R. F.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; Bakker, D. C. E.; Barbero, L.; Bopp, L.; Chang, J.; Chevallier, F.; Chini, L. P.; Ciais, P.; Fader, M.; Feely, R. A.; Gkritzalis, T.; Harris, I.; Hauck, J.; Ilyina, T.; Jain, A. K.; Kato, E.; Kitidis, V.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Koven, C.; Landschützer, P.; Lauvset, S. K.; Lefèvre, N.; Lenton, A.; Lima, I. D.; Metzl, N.; Millero, F.; Munro, D. R.; Murata, A.; Nabel, J. E. M. S.; Nakaoka, S.; Nojiri, Y.; O'Brien, K.; Olsen, A.; Ono, T.; Pérez, F. F.; Pfeil, B.; Pierrot, D.; Poulter, B.; Rehder, G.; Rödenbeck, C.; Saito, S.; Schuster, U.; Schwinger, J.; Séférian, R.; Steinhoff, T.; Stocker, B. D.; Sutton, A. J.; Takahashi, T.; Tilbrook, B.; van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; van Heuven, S.; Vandemark, D.; Viovy, N.; Wiltshire, A.; Zaehle, S.; Zeng, N.

    2015-12-01

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global

  11. Global Carbon Budget 2016

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quéré, Le Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Sitch, Stephen; Korsbakken, Jan Ivar; Peters, Glen P.; Manning, Andrew C.; Boden, Thomas A.; Tans, Pieter P.; Houghton, Richard A.; Keeling, Ralph F.; Alin, Simone; Andrews, Oliver D.; Anthoni, Peter; Barbero, Leticia; Bopp, Laurent; Chevallier, Frédéric; Chini, Louise P.; Ciais, Philippe; Currie, Kim; Delire, Christine; Doney, Scott C.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gkritzalis, Thanos; Harris, Ian; Hauck, Judith; Haverd, Vanessa; Hoppema, Mario; Klein Goldewijk, Kees; Jain, Atul K.; Kato, Etsushi; Körtzinger, Arne; Landschützer, Peter; Lefèvre, Nathalie; Lenton, Andrew; Lienert, Sebastian; Lombardozzi, Danica; Melton, Joe R.; Metzl, Nicolas; Millero, Frank; Monteiro, Pedro M.S.; Munro, David R.; Nabel, Julia E.M.S.; Nakaoka, S.; O'Brien, Kevin; Olsen, Are; Omar, Abdirahman M.; Ono, Tsuneo; Pierrot, Denis; Poulter, Benjamin; Rödenbeck, Christian; Salisbury, Joe; Schuster, Ute; Schwinger, Jörg; Séférian, Roland; Skjelvan, Ingunn; Stocker, Benjamin D.; Sutton, Adrienne J.; Takahashi, Taro; Tian, Hanqin; Tilbrook, Bronte; Laan-Luijkx, van der Ingrid T.; Werf, van der Guido R.; Viovy, Nicolas; Walker, Anthony P.; Wiltshire, Andrew J.; Zaehle, Sönke

    2016-01-01

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project

  12. Budget estimates, fiscal years 1994--1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-04-01

    This report contains the fiscal year budget justification to Congress. The budget provides estimates for salaries and expenses and for the Office of the Inspector General for fiscal years 1994 and 1995

  13. Budget estimates. Fiscal year 1998

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-02-01

    The U.S. Congress has determined that the safe use of nuclear materials for peaceful purposes is a legitimate and important national goal. It has entrusted the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) with the primary Federal responsibility for achieving that goal. The NRC's mission, therefore, is to regulate the Nation's civilian use of byproduct, source, and special nuclear materials to ensure adequate protection of public health and safety, to promote the common defense and security, and to protect the environment. The NRC's FY 1998 budget requests new budget authority of $481,300,000 to be funded by two appropriations - one is the NRC's Salaraies and Expenses appropriation for $476,500,000, and the other is NRC's Office of Inspector General appropriation for $4,800,000. Of the funds appropriated to the NRC's Salaries and Expenses, $17,000,000, shall be derived from the Nuclear Waste Fund and $2,000,000 shall be derived from general funds. The proposed FY 1998 appropriation legislation would also exempt the $2,000,000 for regulatory reviews and other assistance provided to the Department of Energy from the requirement that the NRC collect 100 percent of its budget from fees. The sums appropriated to the NRC's Salaries and Expenses and NRC's Office of Inspector General shall be reduced by the amount of revenues received during FY 1998 from licensing fees, inspection services, and other services and collections, so as to result in a final FY 1998 appropriation for the NRC of an estimated $19,000,000 - the amount appropriated from the Nuclear Waste Fund and from general funds. Revenues derived from enforcement actions shall be deposited to miscellaneous receipts of the Treasury

  14. Budget estimates. Fiscal year 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-02-01

    The U.S. Congress has determined that the safe use of nuclear materials for peaceful purposes is a legitimate and important national goal. It has entrusted the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) with the primary Federal responsibility for achieving that goal. The NRC`s mission, therefore, is to regulate the Nation`s civilian use of byproduct, source, and special nuclear materials to ensure adequate protection of public health and safety, to promote the common defense and security, and to protect the environment. The NRC`s FY 1998 budget requests new budget authority of $481,300,000 to be funded by two appropriations - one is the NRC`s Salaraies and Expenses appropriation for $476,500,000, and the other is NRC`s Office of Inspector General appropriation for $4,800,000. Of the funds appropriated to the NRC`s Salaries and Expenses, $17,000,000, shall be derived from the Nuclear Waste Fund and $2,000,000 shall be derived from general funds. The proposed FY 1998 appropriation legislation would also exempt the $2,000,000 for regulatory reviews and other assistance provided to the Department of Energy from the requirement that the NRC collect 100 percent of its budget from fees. The sums appropriated to the NRC`s Salaries and Expenses and NRC`s Office of Inspector General shall be reduced by the amount of revenues received during FY 1998 from licensing fees, inspection services, and other services and collections, so as to result in a final FY 1998 appropriation for the NRC of an estimated $19,000,000 - the amount appropriated from the Nuclear Waste Fund and from general funds. Revenues derived from enforcement actions shall be deposited to miscellaneous receipts of the Treasury.

  15. Budget estimates fiscal year 1995: Volume 10

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-02-01

    This report contains the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) fiscal year budget justification to Congress. The budget provides estimates for salaries and expenses and for the Office of the Inspector General for fiscal year 1995. The NRC 1995 budget request is $546,497,000. This is an increase of $11,497,000 above the proposed level for FY 1994. The NRC FY 1995 budget request is 3,218 FTEs. This is a decrease of 75 FTEs below the 1994 proposed level

  16. Budget estimates fiscal year 1995: Volume 10

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-02-01

    This report contains the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) fiscal year budget justification to Congress. The budget provides estimates for salaries and expenses and for the Office of the Inspector General for fiscal year 1995. The NRC 1995 budget request is $546,497,000. This is an increase of $11,497,000 above the proposed level for FY 1994. The NRC FY 1995 budget request is 3,218 FTEs. This is a decrease of 75 FTEs below the 1994 proposed level.

  17. Construction of a Matched Global Cloud and Radiance Product from LEO/GEO and EPIC Observations to Estimate Daytime Earth Radiation Budget from DSCOVR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duda, D. P.; Khlopenkov, K. V.; Palikonda, R.; Khaiyer, M. M.; Minnis, P.; Su, W.; Sun-Mack, S.

    2016-12-01

    With the launch of the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), new estimates of the daytime Earth radiation budget can computed from a combination of measurements from the two Earth-observing sensors onboard the spacecraft, the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) and the National Institute of Standards and Technology Advanced Radiometer (NISTAR). Although these instruments can provide accurate top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiance measurements, they lack sufficient resolution to provide details on small-scale surface and cloud properties. Previous studies have shown that these properties have a strong influence on the anisotropy of the radiation at the TOA, and ignoring such effects can result in large TOA-flux errors. To overcome these effects, high-resolution scene identification is needed for accurate Earth radiation budget estimation. Selected radiance and cloud property data measured and derived from several low earth orbit (LEO, including NASA Terra and Aqua MODIS, NOAA AVHRR) and geosynchronous (GEO, including GOES (east and west), METEOSAT, INSAT-3D, MTSAT-2, and HIMAWARI-8) satellite imagers were collected to create hourly 5-km resolution global composites of data necessary to compute angular distribution models (ADM) for reflected shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiation. The satellite data provide an independent source of radiance measurements and scene identification information necessary to construct ADMs that are used to determine the daytime Earth radiation budget. To optimize spatial matching between EPIC measurements and the high-resolution composite cloud properties, LEO/GEO retrievals within the EPIC fields of view (FOV) are convolved to the EPIC point spread function (PSF) in a similar manner to the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Single Scanner Footprint TOA/Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SSF) product. Examples of the merged LEO/GEO/EPIC product will be presented, describing the chosen radiance and cloud properties and

  18. Construction of a Matched Global Cloud and Radiance Product from LEO/GEO and EPIC Observations to Estimate Daytime Earth Radiation Budget from DSCOVR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duda, David P.; Khlopenkov, Konstantin V.; Thiemann, Mandana; Palikonda, Rabindra; Sun-Mack, Sunny; Minnis, Patrick; Su, Wenying

    2016-01-01

    With the launch of the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), new estimates of the daytime Earth radiation budget can be computed from a combination of measurements from the two Earth-observing sensors onboard the spacecraft, the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) and the National Institute of Standards and Technology Advanced Radiometer (NISTAR). Although these instruments can provide accurate top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiance measurements, they lack sufficient resolution to provide details on small-scale surface and cloud properties. Previous studies have shown that these properties have a strong influence on the anisotropy of the radiation at the TOA, and ignoring such effects can result in large TOA-flux errors. To overcome these effects, high-resolution scene identification is needed for accurate Earth radiation budget estimation. Selected radiance and cloud property data measured and derived from several low earth orbit (LEO, including NASA Terra and Aqua MODIS, NOAA AVHRR) and geosynchronous (GEO, including GOES (east and west), METEOSAT, INSAT-3D, MTSAT-2, and HIMAWARI-8) satellite imagers were collected to create hourly 5-km resolution global composites of data necessary to compute angular distribution models (ADM) for reflected shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiation. The satellite data provide an independent source of radiance measurements and scene identification information necessary to construct ADMs that are used to determine the daytime Earth radiation budget. To optimize spatial matching between EPIC measurements and the high-resolution composite cloud properties, LEO/GEO retrievals within the EPIC fields of view (FOV) are convolved to the EPIC point spread function (PSF) in a similar manner to the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Single Scanner Footprint TOA/Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SSF) product. Examples of the merged LEO/GEO/EPIC product will be presented, describing the chosen radiance and cloud properties and

  19. The Global Methane Budget 2000-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunois, Marielle; Bousquet, Philippe; Poulter, Benjamin; Peregon, Anna; Ciais, Philippe; Canadell, Josep G.; Dlugokencky, Edward J.; Etiope, Giuseppe; Bastviken, David; Houweling, Sander; hide

    2016-01-01

    The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (approximately biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modeling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations).For the 2003-2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 540-568. About 60 of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50-65%). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP

  20. The global carbon budget 1959–2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Le Quéré

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Accurate assessments of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2 emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the climate policy process, and project future climate change. Present-day analysis requires the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. Here we describe datasets and a methodology developed by the global carbon cycle science community to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, and methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF are based on energy statistics, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC, including deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM is computed from the concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. Finally, the global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND is estimated by the difference of the other terms. For the last decade available (2002–2011, EFF was 8.3 ± 0.4 PgC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1PgC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND 2.6 ± 0.8 PgC yr−1. For year 2011 alone, EFF was 9.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, 3.0 percent above 2010, reflecting a continued trend in these emissions; ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, approximately constant throughout the decade; GATM was 3.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.7 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1. GATM was low in 2011

  1. Global research and development budget

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Norman, C

    1980-03-01

    The future political and economic relationships between industrial countries and between the industrial and developing countries will be influenced by the investments now being made for research and development (R and D). There is little public understanding of this $150 billion global investment, 25 percent of which is spent on military programs, 15 percent on basic research, and nearly 10 percent on space exploration, while the most-pressing world problems are receiving relatively little attention. A breakdown of geographic distribution of research and a comparison of government expenditures for different areas of R and D reveals a situation that could be corrected. National and corporate priorities need to be revised and political and institutional barriers must give way to new international and cooperative arrangements. 3 tables, 27 references. (DCK)

  2. Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rogelj, Joeri; Schaeffer, Michiel; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gillett, Nathan P.; Vuuren, Van Detlef P.; Riahi, Keywan; Allen, Myles; Knutti, Reto

    2016-01-01

    Several methods exist to estimate the cumulative carbon emissions that would keep global warming to below a given temperature limit. Here we review estimates reported by the IPCC and the recent literature, and discuss the reasons underlying their differences. The most scientifically robust

  3. Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rogelj, Joeri; Schaeffer, Michiel; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gillett, Nathan P.; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Riahi, Keywan; Allen, Myles; Knutti, Reto

    2016-01-01

    Several methods exist to estimate the cumulative carbon emissions that would keep global warming to below a given temperature limit. Here we review estimates reported by the IPCC and the recent literature, and discuss the reasons underlying their differences. The most scientifically robust

  4. Observational constraints on the global atmospheric budget of ethanol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Naik

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Energy security and climate change concerns have led to the promotion of biomass-derived ethanol, an oxygenated volatile organic compound (OVOC, as a substitute for fossil fuels. Although ethanol is ubiquitous in the troposphere, our knowledge of its current atmospheric budget and distribution is limited. Here, for the first time we use a global chemical transport model in conjunction with atmospheric observations to place constraints on the ethanol budget, noting that additional measurements of ethanol (and its precursors are still needed to enhance confidence in our estimated budget. Global sources of ethanol in the model include 5.0 Tg yr−1 from industrial sources and biofuels, 9.2 Tg yr−1 from terrestrial plants, ~0.5 Tg yr−1 from biomass burning, and 0.05 Tg yr−1 from atmospheric reactions of the ethyl peroxy radical (C2H5O2 with itself and with the methyl peroxy radical (CH3O2. The resulting atmospheric lifetime of ethanol in the model is 2.8 days. Gas-phase oxidation by the hydroxyl radical (OH is the primary global sink of ethanol in the model (65%, followed by dry deposition (25%, and wet deposition (10%. Over continental areas, ethanol concentrations predominantly reflect direct anthropogenic and biogenic emission sources. Uncertainty in the biogenic ethanol emissions, estimated at a factor of three, may contribute to the 50% model underestimate of observations in the North American boundary layer. Current levels of ethanol measured in remote regions are an order of magnitude larger than those in the model, suggesting a major gap in understanding. Stronger constraints on the budget and distribution of ethanol and OVOCs are a critical step towards assessing the impacts of increasing the use of ethanol as a fuel.

  5. 14 CFR 1260.72 - Adherence to original budget estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Adherence to original budget estimates... COOPERATIVE AGREEMENTS General Post-Award Requirements § 1260.72 Adherence to original budget estimates. (a) Although NASA assumes no responsibility for budget overruns, the recipient may spend grant funds without...

  6. Budget estimates: Fiscal years, 1990--1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    The budget estimates for the NRC for fiscal year 1990 provide for obligations of $475,000,000, to be funded in total by two new appropriations---one is NRC's Salaries and Expenses appropriation for $472,100,000 and the other is NRC's Office of the Inspector General appropriation of $2,900,000. Of the funds appropriated to the NRC's Salaries and Expenses, $23,195,000 shall be derived from the Nuclear Waste Fund. The sum appropriated to the NRC's Salaries and Expenses shall be reduced by the amount of revenues received during fiscal year 1990 from licensing fees, inspection services, other services and collections, and from the Nuclear Waste Fund, excluding those moneys received for the cooperative nuclear safety research program, services rendered to foreign governments and international organizations, and the material and information access authorization programs, so as to result in a final fiscal year 1990 appropriation estimated at not more than $292,155,000

  7. Estimating Evapotranspiration Using an Observation Based Terrestrial Water Budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodell, Matthew; McWilliams, Eric B.; Famiglietti, James S.; Beaudoing, Hiroko K.; Nigro, Joseph

    2011-01-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is difficult to measure at the scales of climate models and climate variability. While satellite retrieval algorithms do exist, their accuracy is limited by the sparseness of in situ observations available for calibration and validation, which themselves may be unrepresentative of 500m and larger scale satellite footprints and grid pixels. Here, we use a combination of satellite and ground-based observations to close the water budgets of seven continental scale river basins (Mackenzie, Fraser, Nelson, Mississippi, Tocantins, Danube, and Ubangi), estimating mean ET as a residual. For any river basin, ET must equal total precipitation minus net runoff minus the change in total terrestrial water storage (TWS), in order for mass to be conserved. We make use of precipitation from two global observation-based products, archived runoff data, and TWS changes from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite mission. We demonstrate that while uncertainty in the water budget-based estimates of monthly ET is often too large for those estimates to be useful, the uncertainty in the mean annual cycle is small enough that it is practical for evaluating other ET products. Here, we evaluate five land surface model simulations, two operational atmospheric analyses, and a recent global reanalysis product based on our results. An important outcome is that the water budget-based ET time series in two tropical river basins, one in Brazil and the other in central Africa, exhibit a weak annual cycle, which may help to resolve debate about the strength of the annual cycle of ET in such regions and how ET is constrained throughout the year. The methods described will be useful for water and energy budget studies, weather and climate model assessments, and satellite-based ET retrieval optimization.

  8. Effects of globalization on state budgeting system in Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bobukh S.О.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available When writing the scientific article the scientific approaches of scientists concerning the essence of budgeting have been described. The paper deals with the principles of budgeting on the basis of which three main methodological components are singled out. It also analyzes the budgeting goals. The author investigates the impact of globalization on the system of state budgeting in Ukraine, its positive and negative effects. Despite significant achievements it is necessary to explore the effects of globalization on the system of state budgeting in Ukraine. Budgeting is the management technology that provides the formation of budgets for the selected objects and their use to ensure optimal structure and correlation of profits and expenses, income and expenditure, assets and liabilities of the organization or its components to achieve the set goals taking into account the influence of the environment. It should be emphasized that budgeting in no way replaces the control system, but only creates a new approach to management from the standpoint of the balance of incomes and expenditures, profits and expenses, assets and liabilities of the organization as a whole or its components. The state budgeting of the country as the part of the financial system is the channel through which economic globalization, namely financial globalization, affects economic development of the state. Favorable global effect occurs, in particular, in terms of the impact on financial development. Therefore, it is necessary to + the nature of the relationship between these two processes.

  9. U.S. Global Change Research Program Budget Crosscut

    Data.gov (United States)

    Office of Science and Technology Policy, Executive Office of the President — U.S. Global Change Research Program budget authority for Agency activities in which the primary focus is on:Observations, research, and analysis of climate change...

  10. Greater future global warming inferred from Earth's recent energy budget.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Patrick T; Caldeira, Ken

    2017-12-06

    Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth's top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

  11. [The department budget, in the context of the hospital global budget. Initial results in general medicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besançon, F

    1984-02-23

    In a general hospital (Hôtel-Dieu, in the center of Paris), run with a global budget, budgets determined for each unit were introduced as an experiment in 1980. Physicians were in charge of certain expenses, mainly: linen, drugs, transportation of patients to and from other hospitals within Paris, and blood fractions. The whole does not exceed 4% of the turnover (FF 20 millions in 1980) of a 67 bed internal medicine unit. Other accounts deal with the stays, admissions, prescriptions of technical acts, laboratory analyses, and X-rays. In 1980, expenses were 11% more than budgeted, but the increase in stays and particularly in admissions was significantly greater. The resulting savings were 8.8% and 18.7% for stays and admissions respectively. Psychic reactions were variable. The subsequent budgets followed the fluctuations of recorded expenses, which were fairly important in both directions. The unit budget may be an advance or a regression, in a restrictive and past-perpetuating context. The coherence between the unit budget and the global hospital budget is questionable. Physicians were willing to take part in accounting and saving. They have good reason for not enlarging their financial responsibilities. Conversely, they may give more attention to diseases of public opinion.

  12. Global volcanic emissions: budgets, plume chemistry and impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mather, T. A.

    2012-12-01

    Over the past few decades our understanding of global volcanic degassing budgets, plume chemistry and the impacts of volcanic emissions on our atmosphere and environment has been revolutionized. Global volcanic emissions budgets are needed if we are to make effective use of regional and global atmospheric models in order to understand the consequences of volcanic degassing on global environmental evolution. Traditionally volcanic SO2 budgets have been the best constrained but recent efforts have seen improvements in the quantification of the budgets of other environmentally important chemical species such as CO2, the halogens (including Br and I) and trace metals (including measurements relevant to trace metal atmospheric lifetimes and bioavailability). Recent measurements of reactive trace gas species in volcanic plumes have offered intriguing hints at the chemistry occurring in the hot environment at volcanic vents and during electrical discharges in ash-rich volcanic plumes. These reactive trace species have important consequences for gas plume chemistry and impacts, for example, in terms of the global fixed nitrogen budget, volcanically induced ozone destruction and particle fluxes to the atmosphere. Volcanically initiated atmospheric chemistry was likely to have been particularly important before biological (and latterly anthropogenic) processes started to dominate many geochemical cycles, with important consequences in terms of the evolution of the nitrogen cycle and the role of particles in modulating the Earth's climate. There are still many challenges and open questions to be addressed in this fascinating area of science.

  13. Modern Estimates of Global Water Cycle Fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodell, M.; Beaudoing, H. K.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Olson, W. S.

    2014-12-01

    The goal of the first phase of the NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) Water and Energy Cycle Climatology project was to develop "state of the global water cycle" and "state of the global energy cycle" assessments based on data from modern ground and space based observing systems and data integrating models. Here we describe results of the water cycle assessment, including mean annual and monthly fluxes over continents and ocean basins during the first decade of the millennium. To the extent possible, the water flux estimates are based on (1) satellite measurements and (2) data-integrating models. A careful accounting of uncertainty in each flux was applied within a routine that enforced multiple water and energy budget constraints simultaneously in a variational framework, in order to produce objectively-determined, optimized estimates. Simultaneous closure of the water and energy budgets caused the ocean evaporation and precipitation terms to increase by about 10% and 5% relative to the original estimates, mainly because the energy budget required turbulent heat fluxes to be substantially larger in order to balance net radiation. In the majority of cases, the observed annual, surface and atmospheric water budgets over the continents and oceans close with much less than 10% residual. Observed residuals and optimized uncertainty estimates are considerably larger for monthly surface and atmospheric water budget closure, often nearing or exceeding 20% in North America, Eurasia, Australia and neighboring islands, and the Arctic and South Atlantic Oceans. The residuals in South America and Africa tend to be smaller, possibly because cold land processes are a non-issue. Fluxes are poorly observed over the Arctic Ocean, certain seas, Antarctica, and the Australasian and Indonesian Islands, leading to reliance on atmospheric analysis estimates. Other details of the study and future directions will be discussed.

  14. Toward an Improved Understanding of the Global Fresh Water Budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrand, Peter H.

    2005-01-01

    The major components of the global fresh water cycle include the evaporation from the land and ocean surfaces, precipitation onto the Ocean and land surfaces, the net atmospheric transport of water from oceanic areas over land, and the return flow of water from the land back into the ocean. The additional components of oceanic water transport are few, principally, the mixing of fresh water through the oceanic boundary layer, transport by ocean currents, and sea ice processes. On land the situation is considerably more complex, and includes the deposition of rain and snow on land; water flow in runoff; infiltration of water into the soil and groundwater; storage of water in soil, lakes and streams, and groundwater; polar and glacial ice; and use of water in vegetation and human activities. Knowledge of the key terms in the fresh water flux budget is poor. Some components of the budget, e.g. precipitation, runoff, storage, are measured with variable accuracy across the globe. We are just now obtaining precise measurements of the major components of global fresh water storage in global ice and ground water. The easily accessible fresh water sources in rivers, lakes and snow runoff are only adequately measured in the more affluent portions of the world. presents proposals are suggesting methods of making global measurements of these quantities from space. At the same time, knowledge of the global fresh water resources under the effects of climate change is of increasing importance and the human population grows. This paper provides an overview of the state of knowledge of the global fresh water budget, evaluating the accuracy of various global water budget measuring and modeling techniques. We review the measurement capabilities of satellite instruments as compared with field validation studies and modeling approaches. Based on these analyses, and on the goal of improved knowledge of the global fresh water budget under the effects of climate change, we suggest

  15. Global Polynomial Kernel Hazard Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hiabu, Munir; Miranda, Maria Dolores Martínez; Nielsen, Jens Perch

    2015-01-01

    This paper introduces a new bias reducing method for kernel hazard estimation. The method is called global polynomial adjustment (GPA). It is a global correction which is applicable to any kernel hazard estimator. The estimator works well from a theoretical point of view as it asymptotically redu...

  16. Global atmospheric budget of simple monocyclic aromatic compounds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Cabrera-Perez

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The global atmospheric budget and distribution of monocyclic aromatic compounds is estimated, using an atmospheric chemistry general circulation model. Simulation results are evaluated with an ensemble of surface and aircraft observations with the goal of understanding emission, production and removal of these compounds.Anthropogenic emissions provided by the RCP database represent the largest source of aromatics in the model (≃ 23 TgC year−1 and biomass burning from the GFAS inventory the second largest (≃ 5 TgC year−1. The simulated chemical production of aromatics accounts for  ≃ 5 TgC year−1. The atmospheric burden of aromatics sums up to 0.3 TgC. The main removal process of aromatics is photochemical decomposition (≃ 27 TgC  year−1, while wet and dry deposition are responsible for a removal of  ≃ 4 TgC year−1.Simulated mixing ratios at the surface and elsewhere in the troposphere show good spatial and temporal agreement with the observations for benzene, although the model generally underestimates mixing ratios. Toluene is generally well reproduced by the model at the surface, but mixing ratios in the free troposphere are underestimated. Finally, larger discrepancies are found for xylenes: surface mixing ratios are not only overestimated but also a low temporal correlation is found with respect to in situ observations.

  17. Estimating hydrologic budgets for six Persian Gulf watersheds, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, Majid; Ghafouri, Mohammad; Tabatabaei, MahmoudReza; Goodarzi, Masoud; Mokarian, Zeinab

    2017-10-01

    Estimation of the major components of the hydrologic budget is important for determining the impacts on the water supply and quality of either planned or proposed land management projects, vegetative changes, groundwater withdrawals, and reservoir management practices and plans. As acquisition of field data is costly and time consuming, models have been created to test various land use practices and their concomitant effects on the hydrologic budget of watersheds. To simulate such management scenarios realistically, a model should be able to simulate the individual components of the hydrologic budget. The main objective of this study is to perform the SWAT2012 model for estimation of hydrological budget in six subbasin of Persian Gulf watershed; Golgol, Baghan, Marghab Shekastian, Tangebirim and Daragah, which are located in south and south west of Iran during 1991-2009. In order to evaluate the performance of the model, hydrological data, soil map, land use map and digital elevation model (DEM) are obtained and prepared for each catchment to run the model. SWAT-CUP with SUFI2 program was used for simulation, uncertainty and validation with 95 Percent Prediction Uncertainty. Coefficient of determination ( R 2) and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NS) were used for evaluation of the model simulation results. Comparison of measured and predicted values demonstrated that each component of the model gave reasonable output and that the interaction among components was realistic. The study has produced a technique with reliable capability for annual and monthly water budget components in Persian Gulf watershed.

  18. Does a global budget superimposed on fee-for-service payments mitigate hospitals' medical claims in Taiwan?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Pi-Fem

    2014-12-01

    Taiwan's global budgeting for hospital health care, in comparison to other countries, assigns a regional budget cap for hospitals' medical benefits claimed on the basis of fee-for-service (FFS) payments. This study uses a stays-hospitals-years database comprising acute myocardial infarction inpatients to examine whether the reimbursement policy mitigates the medical benefits claimed to a third-payer party during 2000-2008. The estimated results of a nested random-effects model showed that hospitals attempted to increase their medical benefit claims under the influence of initial implementation of global budgeting. The magnitudes of hospitals' responses to global budgeting were significantly attributed to hospital ownership, accreditation status, and market competitiveness of a region. The results imply that the regional budget cap superimposed on FFS payments provides only blunt incentive to the hospitals to cooperate to contain medical resource utilization, unless a monitoring mechanism attached with the payment system.

  19. A Climate Data Record (CDR) for the global terrestrial water budget: 1984-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu; Pan, Ming; Sheffield, Justin; Siemann, Amanda L.; Fisher, Colby K.; Liang, Miaoling; Beck, Hylke E.; Wanders, Niko; MacCracken, Rosalyn F.; Houser, Paul R.; Zhou, Tian; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Pinker, Rachel T.; Bytheway, Janice; Kummerow, Christian D.; Wood, Eric F.

    2018-01-01

    Closing the terrestrial water budget is necessary to provide consistent estimates of budget components for understanding water resources and changes over time. Given the lack of in situ observations of budget components at anything but local scale, merging information from multiple data sources (e.g., in situ observation, satellite remote sensing, land surface model, and reanalysis) through data assimilation techniques that optimize the estimation of fluxes is a promising approach. Conditioned on the current limited data availability, a systematic method is developed to optimally combine multiple available data sources for precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), runoff (R), and the total water storage change (TWSC) at 0.5° spatial resolution globally and to obtain water budget closure (i.e., to enforce P - ET - R - TWSC = 0) through a constrained Kalman filter (CKF) data assimilation technique under the assumption that the deviation from the ensemble mean of all data sources for the same budget variable is used as a proxy of the uncertainty in individual water budget variables. The resulting long-term (1984-2010), monthly 0.5° resolution global terrestrial water cycle Climate Data Record (CDR) data set is developed under the auspices of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth System Data Records (ESDRs) program. This data set serves to bridge the gap between sparsely gauged regions and the regions with sufficient in situ observations in investigating the temporal and spatial variability in the terrestrial hydrology at multiple scales. The CDR created in this study is validated against in situ measurements like river discharge from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS), and ET from FLUXNET. The data set is shown to be reliable and can serve the scientific community in understanding historical climate variability in water cycle fluxes and stores, benchmarking the current climate, and

  20. An audit of the global carbon budget: identifying and reducing sources of uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballantyne, A. P.; Tans, P. P.; Marland, G.; Stocker, B. D.

    2012-12-01

    Uncertainties in our carbon accounting practices may limit our ability to objectively verify emission reductions on regional scales. Furthermore uncertainties in the global C budget must be reduced to benchmark Earth System Models that incorporate carbon-climate interactions. Here we present an audit of the global C budget where we try to identify sources of uncertainty for major terms in the global C budget. The atmospheric growth rate of CO2 has increased significantly over the last 50 years, while the uncertainty in calculating the global atmospheric growth rate has been reduced from 0.4 ppm/yr to 0.2 ppm/yr (95% confidence). Although we have greatly reduced global CO2 growth rate uncertainties, there remain regions, such as the Southern Hemisphere, Tropics and Arctic, where changes in regional sources/sinks will remain difficult to detect without additional observations. Increases in fossil fuel (FF) emissions are the primary factor driving the increase in global CO2 growth rate; however, our confidence in FF emission estimates has actually gone down. Based on a comparison of multiple estimates, FF emissions have increased from 2.45 ± 0.12 PgC/yr in 1959 to 9.40 ± 0.66 PgC/yr in 2010. Major sources of increasing FF emission uncertainty are increased emissions from emerging economies, such as China and India, as well as subtle differences in accounting practices. Lastly, we evaluate emission estimates from Land Use Change (LUC). Although relative errors in emission estimates from LUC are quite high (2 sigma ~ 50%), LUC emissions have remained fairly constant in recent decades. We evaluate the three commonly used approaches to estimating LUC emissions- Bookkeeping, Satellite Imagery, and Model Simulations- to identify their main sources of error and their ability to detect net emissions from LUC.; Uncertainties in Fossil Fuel Emissions over the last 50 years.

  1. A Structural VAR Approach to Estimating Budget Balance Targets

    OpenAIRE

    Robert A Buckle; Kunhong Kim; Julie Tam

    2001-01-01

    The Fiscal Responsibility Act 1994 states that, as a principle of responsible fiscal management, a New Zealand government should ensure total Crown debt is at a prudent level by ensuring total operating expenses do not exceed total operating revenues. In this paper a structural VAR model is estimated to evaluate the impact on the government's cash operating surplus (or budget balance) of four independent disturbances: supply, fiscal, real private demand, and nominal disturbances. Based on the...

  2. Budget estimates: Fiscal year 1994. Volume 2: Construction of facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-01-01

    The Construction of Facilities (CoF) appropriation provides contractual services for the repair, rehabilitation, and modification of existing facilities; the construction of new facilities and the acquisition of related collateral equipment; the acquisition or condemnation of real property; environmental compliance and restoration activities; the design of facilities projects; and advanced planning related to future facilities needs. Fiscal year 1994 budget estimates are broken down according to facility location of project and by purpose.

  3. Budget estimates fiscal year 1989: Appropriation, Salaries and expenses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-02-01

    The budget estimates for Salaries and Expenses for FY 1989 provide for obligations of $450,000,000 to be funded in total by a new appropriation. The sum appropriated shall be reduced by the amount of revenues received during fiscal year 1989 from licensing fees, inspection services, and other services and collections, excluding those monies received for the cooperative nuclear safety research program, services rendered to foreign governments and international organizations, and the material and information access authorization programs, so as to result in a final fiscal year 1989 appropriation estimated at not more than $247,500,000

  4. Budget estimates, fiscal year 1984/85. Appropriation: salaries and expenses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    This report contains the fiscal year budget justifications to Congress. The budget estimates for salaries and expenses for fiscal year 1984 to 1985 provide for obligations of $466,800,000 to be funded in total by a new appropriation

  5. Revisiting global mean sea level budget closure : Preliminary results from an integrative study within ESA's Climate Change Initiative -Sea level Budget Closure-Climate Change Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palanisamy, H.; Cazenave, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    The global mean sea level budget is revisited over two time periods: the entire altimetry era, 1993-2015 and the Argo/GRACE era, 2003-2015 using the version '0' of sea level components estimated by the SLBC-CCI teams. The SLBC-CCI is an European Space Agency's project on sea level budget closure using CCI products. Over the entire altimetry era, the sea level budget was performed as the sum of steric and mass components that include contributions from total land water storage, glaciers, ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica) and total water vapor content. Over the Argo/GRACE era, it was performed as the sum of steric and GRACE based ocean mass. Preliminary budget analysis performed over the altimetry era (1993-2015) results in a trend value of 2.83 mm/yr. On comparison with the observed altimetry-based global mean sea level trend over the same period (3.03 ± 0.5 mm/yr), we obtain a residual of 0.2 mm/yr. In spite of a residual of 0.2 mm/yr, the sea level budget result obtained over the altimetry era is very promising as this has been performed using the version '0' of the sea level components. Furthermore, uncertainties are not yet included in this study as uncertainty estimation for each sea level component is currently underway. Over the Argo/GRACE era (2003-2015), the trend estimated from the sum of steric and GRACE ocean mass amounts to 2.63 mm/yr while that observed by satellite altimetry is 3.37 mm/yr, thereby leaving a residual of 0.7 mm/yr. Here an ensemble GRACE ocean mass data (mean of various available GRACE ocean mass data) was used for the estimation. Using individual GRACE data results in a residual range of 0.5 mm/yr -1.1 mm/yr. Investigations are under way to determine the cause of the vast difference between the observed sea level and the sea level obtained from steric and GRACE ocean mass. One main suspect is the impact of GRACE data gaps on sea level budget analysis due to lack of GRACE data over several months since 2011. The current action plan

  6. The oceanic cycle and global atmospheric budget of carbonyl sulfide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weiss, P.S.

    1994-12-31

    A significant portion of stratospheric air chemistry is influenced by the existence of carbonyl sulfide (COS). This ubiquitous sulfur gas represents a major source of sulfur to the stratosphere where it is converted to sulfuric acid aerosol particles. Stratospheric aerosols are climatically important because they scatter incoming solar radiation back to space and are able to increase the catalytic destruction of ozone through gas phase reactions on particle surfaces. COS is primarily formed at the surface of the earth, in both marine and terrestrial environments, and is strongly linked to natural biological processes. However, many gaps in the understanding of the global COS cycle still exist, which has led to a global atmospheric budget that is out of balance by a factor of two or more, and a lack of understanding of how human activity has affected the cycling of this gas. The goal of this study was to focus on COS in the marine environment by investigating production/destruction mechanisms and recalculating the ocean-atmosphere flux.

  7. Global Warming Estimation from MSU

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, Robert, Jr.

    1999-01-01

    In this study, we have developed time series of global temperature from 1980-97 based on the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 (53.74 GHz) observations taken from polar-orbiting NOAA operational satellites. In order to create these time series, systematic errors (approx. 0.1 K) in the Ch 2 data arising from inter-satellite differences are removed objectively. On the other hand, smaller systematic errors (approx. 0.03 K) in the data due to orbital drift of each satellite cannot be removed objectively. Such errors are expected to remain in the time series and leave an uncertainty in the inferred global temperature trend. With the help of a statistical method, the error in the MSU inferred global temperature trend resulting from orbital drifts and residual inter-satellite differences of all satellites is estimated to be 0.06 K decade. Incorporating this error, our analysis shows that the global temperature increased at a rate of 0.13 +/- 0.06 K decade during 1980-97.

  8. Global Tree Cover and Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land: The contribution of agroforestry to global and national carbon budgets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zomer, Robert J; Neufeldt, Henry; Xu, Jianchu; Ahrends, Antje; Bossio, Deborah; Trabucco, Antonio; van Noordwijk, Meine; Wang, Mingcheng

    2016-07-20

    Agroforestry systems and tree cover on agricultural land make an important contribution to climate change mitigation, but are not systematically accounted for in either global carbon budgets or national carbon accounting. This paper assesses the role of trees on agricultural land and their significance for carbon sequestration at a global level, along with recent change trends. Remote sensing data show that in 2010, 43% of all agricultural land globally had at least 10% tree cover and that this has increased by 2% over the previous ten years. Combining geographically and bioclimatically stratified Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 1 default estimates of carbon storage with this tree cover analysis, we estimated 45.3 PgC on agricultural land globally, with trees contributing >75%. Between 2000 and 2010 tree cover increased by 3.7%, resulting in an increase of >2 PgC (or 4.6%) of biomass carbon. On average, globally, biomass carbon increased from 20.4 to 21.4 tC ha(-1). Regional and country-level variation in stocks and trends were mapped and tabulated globally, and for all countries. Brazil, Indonesia, China and India had the largest increases in biomass carbon stored on agricultural land, while Argentina, Myanmar, and Sierra Leone had the largest decreases.

  9. Estimated Costs of Continuing Operations in Iraq and Other Operations of the Global War on Terrorism

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Holtz-Eakin, Douglas

    2004-01-01

    At the request of Senator Conrad, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated the costs of military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and other operations associated with the global war on terrorism (GWOT...

  10. Provider Behavior Under Global Budgeting and Policy Responses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao-Kai Chang MD, PhD

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Third-party payer systems are consistently associated with health care cost escalation. Taiwan’s single-payer, universal coverage National Health Insurance (NHI adopted global budgeting (GB to achieve cost control. This study captures ophthalmologists’ response to GB, specifically service volume changes and service substitution between low-revenue and high-revenue services following GB implementation, the subsequent Bureau of NHI policy response, and the policy impact. De-identified eye clinic claims data for the years 2000, 2005, and 2007 were analyzed to study the changes in Simple Claim Form (SCF claims versus Special Case Claims (SCCs. The 3 study years represent the pre-GB period, post-GB but prior to region-wise service cap implementation period, and the post-service cap period, respectively. Repeated measures multilevel regression analysis was used to study the changes adjusting for clinic characteristics and competition within each health care market. SCF service volume (low-revenue, fixed-price patient visits remained constant throughout the study period, but SCCs (covering services involving variable provider effort and resource use with flexibility for discretionary billing increased in 2005 with no further change in 2007. The latter is attributable to a 30% cap negotiated by the NHI Bureau with the ophthalmology association and enforced by the association. This study demonstrates that GB deployed with ongoing monitoring and timely policy responses that are designed in collaboration with professional stakeholders can contain costs in a health insurance–financed health care system.

  11. Practical global oceanic state estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wunsch, Carl; Heimbach, Patrick

    2007-06-01

    The problem of oceanographic state estimation, by means of an ocean general circulation model (GCM) and a multitude of observations, is described and contrasted with the meteorological process of data assimilation. In practice, all such methods reduce, on the computer, to forms of least-squares. The global oceanographic problem is at the present time focussed primarily on smoothing, rather than forecasting, and the data types are unlike meteorological ones. As formulated in the consortium Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO), an automatic differentiation tool is used to calculate the so-called adjoint code of the GCM, and the method of Lagrange multipliers used to render the problem one of unconstrained least-squares minimization. Major problems today lie less with the numerical algorithms (least-squares problems can be solved by many means) than with the issues of data and model error. Results of ongoing calculations covering the period of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment, and including among other data, satellite altimetry from TOPEX/POSEIDON, Jason-1, ERS- 1/2, ENVISAT, and GFO, a global array of profiling floats from the Argo program, and satellite gravity data from the GRACE mission, suggest that the solutions are now useful for scientific purposes. Both methodology and applications are developing in a number of different directions.

  12. A Decision Tool to Evaluate Budgeting Methodologies for Estimating Facility Recapitalization Requirements

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hickman, Krista M

    2008-01-01

    .... Specifically, the thesis sought to answer an overarching research question addressing the importance of recapitalization and the best method to estimate the facility recapitalization budget using...

  13. Organic carbon burial rates in mangrove sediments: Strengthening the global budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breithaupt, Joshua L.; Smoak, Joseph M.; Smith, Thomas J., III; Sanders, Christian J.; Hoare, Armando

    2012-09-01

    Mangrove wetlands exist in the transition zone between terrestrial and marine environments and as such were historically overlooked in discussions of terrestrial and marine carbon cycling. In recent decades, mangroves have increasingly been credited with producing and burying large quantities of organic carbon (OC). The amount of available data regarding OC burial in mangrove soils has more than doubled since the last primary literature review (2003). This includes data from some of the largest, most developed mangrove forests in the world, providing an opportunity to strengthen the global estimate. First-time representation is now included for mangroves in Brazil, Colombia, Malaysia, Indonesia, China, Japan, Vietnam, and Thailand, along with additional data from Mexico and the United States. Our objective is to recalculate the centennial-scale burial rate of OC at both the local and global scales. Quantification of this rate enables better understanding of the current carbon sink capacity of mangroves as well as helps to quantify and/or validate the other aspects of the mangrove carbon budget such as import, export, and remineralization. Statistical analysis of the data supports use of the geometric mean as the most reliable central tendency measurement. Our estimate is that mangrove systems bury 163 (+40; -31) g OC m-2 yr-1 (95% C.I.). Globally, the 95% confidence interval for the annual burial rate is 26.1 (+6.3; -5.1) Tg OC. This equates to a burial fraction that is 42% larger than that of the most recent mangrove carbon budget (2008), and represents 10-15% of estimated annual mangrove production. This global rate supports previous conclusions that, on a centennial time scale, 8-15% of all OC burial in marine settings occurs in mangrove systems.

  14. Organic carbon burial rates in mangrove sediments: strengthening the global budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breithaupt, J.; Smoak, Joseph M.; Smith, Thomas J.; Sanders, Christian J.; Hoare, Armando

    2012-01-01

    Mangrove wetlands exist in the transition zone between terrestrial and marine environments and as such were historically overlooked in discussions of terrestrial and marine carbon cycling. In recent decades, mangroves have increasingly been credited with producing and burying large quantities of organic carbon (OC). The amount of available data regarding OC burial in mangrove soils has more than doubled since the last primary literature review (2003). This includes data from some of the largest, most developed mangrove forests in the world, providing an opportunity to strengthen the global estimate. First-time representation is now included for mangroves in Brazil, Colombia, Malaysia, Indonesia, China, Japan, Vietnam, and Thailand, along with additional data from Mexico and the United States. Our objective is to recalculate the centennial-scale burial rate of OC at both the local and global scales. Quantification of this rate enables better understanding of the current carbon sink capacity of mangroves as well as helps to quantify and/or validate the other aspects of the mangrove carbon budget such as import, export, and remineralization. Statistical analysis of the data supports use of the geometric mean as the most reliable central tendency measurement. Our estimate is that mangrove systems bury 163 (+40; -31) g OC m-2 yr-1 (95% C.I.). Globally, the 95% confidence interval for the annual burial rate is 26.1 (+6.3; -5.1) Tg OC. This equates to a burial fraction that is 42% larger than that of the most recent mangrove carbon budget (2008), and represents 10–15% of estimated annual mangrove production. This global rate supports previous conclusions that, on a centennial time scale, 8–15% of all OC burial in marine settings occurs in mangrove systems.

  15. Probabilistic estimates of 1.5-degree carbon budgets based on uncertainty in transient climate response and aerosol forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partanen, A. I.; Mengis, N.; Jalbert, J.; Matthews, D.

    2017-12-01

    Nations agreed to limit the increase in global mean surface temperature relative to the preindustrial era below 2 degrees Celsius and pursue efforts to a more ambitious goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius. To achieve these goals, it is necessary to assess the amount of cumulative carbon emissions compatible with these temperature targets, i.e. so called carbon budgets. In this work, we use the intermediate complexity University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) to assess how uncertainty in aerosol forcing and transient climate response transfers to uncertainty in future carbon budgets for burning fossil fuels. We create a perturbed parameter ensemble of model simulations by scaling aerosol forcing and transient climate response, and assess the likelihood of each simulation by comparing the simulated historical cumulative carbon emissions, CO2 concentration and radiative balance to observations. By weighting the results of each simulation with the likelihood of the simulation, the preliminary results give a carbon budget of 48 Pg C to reach 1.5 degree Celsius temperature increase. The small weighted mean is due to large fraction of simulations with strong aerosol forcing and transient climate response giving negative carbon budgets for this time period. The probability of the carbon budget being over 100 Pg C was 38% and 23% for over 200 Pg carbon budget. The carbon budgets after temperature stabilization at 1.5 degrees are even smaller with a weighted mean of -100 Pg C until the year 2200. The main reason for the negative carbon budgets after temperature stabilization is an assumed strong decrease in aerosol forcing in the 21st century. Conversely, simulations with weak aerosol forcing and transient climate response give positive carbon budgets. Our results highlight both the importance of reducing uncertainty in aerosol forcing and transient climate response, and of taking the non-CO2 forcers into account when estimating carbon budgets.

  16. Estimating the Mediterranean Sea Water Budget: impact of RCM design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somot, S.; Elguindi, N.; Sanchez-Gomez, E.; Herrmann, M.; Déqué, M.

    2009-09-01

    The Mediterranean Sea can be considered as a thermodynamic machine that exchanges water and heat with the Atlantic Ocean through the Strait of Gibraltar and with the atmosphere through its surface. Considering the Mediterranean Sea Water Budget (MSWB) multi-year mean, the Mediterranean basin looses water at the surface due to an excess of evaporation over freshwater input (precipitation, river runoff, Black Sea input). Moreover the MSWB largely drives the Mediterranean Sea water mass formation and therefore a large part of its thermohaline circulation. This could even have an impact on the characteristics of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation through the Mediterranean Outflow Waters that flow into the Atlantic at a depth of about 1000 m. From a climate point of view, the MSWB acts as a water source for the Mediterranean countries and therefore plays an important role on the water resources of the region. The regional physical characteristics of the Mediterranean basin (complex orography, strong land-sea contrast, land-atmosphere coupling, air-sea coupling, river inflow, Gibraltar Strait constraint and complex ocean bathymetry) strongly influence the various components of the MSWB. Moreover extreme precipitation events over land and strong evaporation events over the sea due to local winds can play a non-negligible role on the mean MSWB despite their small spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, modelling the mean behaviour, the interannual variability and the trends of the MSWB is a challenging task of the Regional Climate Model community in the context of climate change. It is actually one of the highlighted issues of the HyMex project planned for the 2010-2020 period. We propose here to start investigating some key scientific issues of the regional modelling of the Mediterranean Sea Water Budget using a wide range of regional climate simulations performed at Météo-France or in the framework of FP6 European projects (ENSEMBLES, CIRCE). The addressed

  17. Ocean heat content and ocean energy budget: make better use of historical global subsurface temperature dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, L.; Zhu, J.

    2016-02-01

    Ocean heat content (OHC) change contributes substantially to global sea level rise, also is a key metric of the ocean/global energy budget, so it is a vital task for the climate research community to estimate historical OHC. While there are large uncertainties regarding its value, here we review the OHC calculation by using the historical global subsurface temperature dataset, and discuss the sources of its uncertainty. The presentation briefly introduces how to correct to the systematic biases in expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data, a alternative way of filling data gaps (which is main focus of this talk), and how to choose a proper climatology. A new reconstruction of historical upper (0-700 m) OHC change will be presented, which is the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) version of historical upper OHC assessment. The authors also want to highlight the impact of observation system change on OHC calculation, which could lead to bias in OHC estimates. Furthermore, we will compare the updated observational-based estimates on ocean heat content change since 1970s with CMIP5 results. This comparison shows good agreement, increasing the confidence of the climate models in representing the climate history.

  18. Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Patrick T.; Caldeira, Ken

    2017-12-01

    Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

  19. Global nitrogen budgets in cereals: A 50-year assessment for maize, rice, and wheat production systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladha, J K; Tirol-Padre, A; Reddy, C K; Cassman, K G; Verma, Sudhir; Powlson, D S; van Kessel, C; de B Richter, Daniel; Chakraborty, Debashis; Pathak, Himanshu

    2016-01-18

    Industrially produced N-fertilizer is essential to the production of cereals that supports current and projected human populations. We constructed a top-down global N budget for maize, rice, and wheat for a 50-year period (1961 to 2010). Cereals harvested a total of 1551 Tg of N, of which 48% was supplied through fertilizer-N and 4% came from net soil depletion. An estimated 48% (737 Tg) of crop N, equal to 29, 38, and 25 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) for maize, rice, and wheat, respectively, is contributed by sources other than fertilizer- or soil-N. Non-symbiotic N2 fixation appears to be the major source of this N, which is 370 Tg or 24% of total N in the crop, corresponding to 13, 22, and 13 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) for maize, rice, and wheat, respectively. Manure (217 Tg or 14%) and atmospheric deposition (96 Tg or 6%) are the other sources of N. Crop residues and seed contribute marginally. Our scaling-down approach to estimate the contribution of non-symbiotic N2 fixation is robust because it focuses on global quantities of N in sources and sinks that are easier to estimate, in contrast to estimating N losses per se, because losses are highly soil-, climate-, and crop-specific.

  20. Quantifying the Global Fresh Water Budget: Capabilities from Current and Future Satellite Sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrand, Peter; Zaitchik, Benjamin

    2007-01-01

    The global water cycle is complex and its components are difficult to measure, particularly at the global scales and with the precision needed for assessing climate impacts. Recent advances in satellite observational capabilities, however, are greatly improving our knowledge of the key terms in the fresh water flux budget. Many components of the of the global water budget, e.g. precipitation, atmospheric moisture profiles, soil moisture, snow cover, sea ice are now routinely measured globally using instruments on satellites such as TRMM, AQUA, TERRA, GRACE, and ICESat, as well as on operational satellites. New techniques, many using data assimilation approaches, are providing pathways toward measuring snow water equivalent, evapotranspiration, ground water, ice mass, as well as improving the measurement quality for other components of the global water budget. This paper evaluates these current and developing satellite capabilities to observe the global fresh water budget, then looks forward to evaluate the potential for improvements that may result from future space missions as detailed by the US Decadal Survey, and operational plans. Based on these analyses, and on the goal of improved knowledge of the global fresh water budget under the effects of climate change, we suggest some priorities for the future, based on new approaches that may provide the improved measurements and the analyses needed to understand and observe the potential speed-up of the global water cycle under the effects of climate change.

  1. Use of Atmospheric Budget to Reduce Uncertainty in Estimated Water Availability over South Asia from Different Reanalyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastian, Dawn Emil; Pathak, Amey; Ghosh, Subimal

    2016-07-01

    Disagreements across different reanalyses over South Asia result into uncertainty in assessment of water availability, which is computed as the difference between Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (P-E). Here, we compute P-E directly from atmospheric budget with divergence of moisture flux for different reanalyses and find improved correlation with observed values of P-E, acquired from station and satellite data. We also find reduced closure terms for water cycle computed with atmospheric budget, analysed over South Asian landmass, when compared to that obtained with individual values of P and E. The P-E value derived with atmospheric budget is more consistent with energy budget, when we use top-of-atmosphere radiation for the same. For analysing water cycle, we use runoff from Global Land Data Assimilation System, and water storage from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment. We find improvements in agreements across different reanalyses, in terms of inter-annual cross correlation when atmospheric budget is used to estimate P-E and hence, emphasize to use the same for estimations of water availability in South Asia to reduce uncertainty. Our results on water availability with reduced uncertainty over highly populated monsoon driven South Asia will be useful for water management and agricultural decision making.

  2. Use of Atmospheric Budget to Reduce Uncertainty in Estimated Water Availability over South Asia from Different Reanalyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastian, Dawn Emil; Pathak, Amey; Ghosh, Subimal

    2016-07-08

    Disagreements across different reanalyses over South Asia result into uncertainty in assessment of water availability, which is computed as the difference between Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (P-E). Here, we compute P-E directly from atmospheric budget with divergence of moisture flux for different reanalyses and find improved correlation with observed values of P-E, acquired from station and satellite data. We also find reduced closure terms for water cycle computed with atmospheric budget, analysed over South Asian landmass, when compared to that obtained with individual values of P and E. The P-E value derived with atmospheric budget is more consistent with energy budget, when we use top-of-atmosphere radiation for the same. For analysing water cycle, we use runoff from Global Land Data Assimilation System, and water storage from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment. We find improvements in agreements across different reanalyses, in terms of inter-annual cross correlation when atmospheric budget is used to estimate P-E and hence, emphasize to use the same for estimations of water availability in South Asia to reduce uncertainty. Our results on water availability with reduced uncertainty over highly populated monsoon driven South Asia will be useful for water management and agricultural decision making.

  3. Methane bubbling from northern lakes: present and future contributions to the global methane budget.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, Katey M; Smith, Laurence C; Chapin, F Stuart

    2007-07-15

    Large uncertainties in the budget of atmospheric methane (CH4) limit the accuracy of climate change projections. Here we describe and quantify an important source of CH4 -- point-source ebullition (bubbling) from northern lakes -- that has not been incorporated in previous regional or global methane budgets. Employing a method recently introduced to measure ebullition more accurately by taking into account its spatial patchiness in lakes, we estimate point-source ebullition for 16 lakes in Alaska and Siberia that represent several common northern lake types: glacial, alluvial floodplain, peatland and thermokarst (thaw) lakes. Extrapolation of measured fluxes from these 16 sites to all lakes north of 45 degrees N using circumpolar databases of lake and permafrost distributions suggests that northern lakes are a globally significant source of atmospheric CH4, emitting approximately 24.2+/-10.5Tg CH4yr(-1). Thermokarst lakes have particularly high emissions because they release CH4 produced from organic matter previously sequestered in permafrost. A carbon mass balance calculation of CH4 release from thermokarst lakes on the Siberian yedoma ice complex suggests that these lakes alone would emit as much as approximately 49000Tg CH4 if this ice complex was to thaw completely. Using a space-for-time substitution based on the current lake distributions in permafrost-dominated and permafrost-free terrains, we estimate that lake emissions would be reduced by approximately 12% in a more probable transitional permafrost scenario and by approximately 53% in a 'permafrost-free' Northern Hemisphere. Long-term decline in CH4 ebullition from lakes due to lake area loss and permafrost thaw would occur only after the large release of CH4 associated thermokarst lake development in the zone of continuous permafrost.

  4. Estimation of Forest Fire-fighting Budgets Using Climate Indexes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, Z.; Kooten, van G.C.

    2012-01-01

    Given the complexity and relative short length of current predicting system for fire behavior, it is inappropriate to be referred for planning fire-fighting budgets of BC government due to the severe uncertainty of fire behavior across fire seasons. Therefore, a simple weather derived index for

  5. Estimation of Forest Fire-fighting Budgets Using Climate Indexes

    OpenAIRE

    Zhen Xu; G. Cornelis van Kooten

    2012-01-01

    Given the complexity and relative short length of current predicting system for fire behavior, it is inappropriate to be referred for planning fire-fighting budgets of BC government due to the severe uncertainty of fire behavior across fire seasons. Therefore, a simple weather derived index for predicting fire frequency and burned area is developed in this paper to investigate the potential feasibility to predict fire behavior and fire-fighting expenses for the upcoming fire season using clim...

  6. Refined global methyl halide budgets with respect to rapeseed (Brassica napus) by life-cycle measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, Y.; Acdan, J.; Xu, R.; Deventer, M. J.; Rhew, R. C.

    2017-12-01

    A precise quantification of global methyl halide budgets is needed to evaluate the ozone depletion potential of these compounds and to predict future changes of stratospheric ozone. However, the global budgets of methyl halides are not balanced between currently identified and quantified sources and sinks. Our study re-evaluated the methyl bromide budget from global cultivated rapeseed (Brassica napus) through life-cycle flux measurements both in the greenhouse and in the field, yielding a methyl bromide emission rate that scales globally to 1.0 - 1.2 Gg yr-1. While this indicates a globally significant source, it is much smaller than the previously widely cited value of 5 - 6 Gg yr-1(Mead et al., 2008), even taking into account the near tripling of annual global yield of rapeseed since the previous evaluation was conducted. Our study also evaluated the methyl chloride and methyl iodide emission levels from rapeseed, yielding emission rates that scale to 5.4 Gg yr-1 for methyl chloride and 1.8 Gg yr-1 of methyl iodide. The concentrations of the methyl donor SAM (S-adenosyl methionine) and the resultant product SAH (S-Adenosyl-L-homocysteine) were also analyzed to explore their role in biogenic methyl halide formation. Halide gradient incubations showed that the magnitude of methyl halide emissions from rapeseed is highly correlated to soil halide levels, thus raising the concern that the heterogeneity of soil halide contents geographically should be considered when extrapolating to global budget.

  7. The use and re-use of unsustainably mined groundwater: A global budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grogan, D. S.; Prousevitch, A.; Wisser, D.; Lammers, R. B.; Frolking, S. E.

    2015-12-01

    Many of the world's major groundwater aquifers are rapidly depleting due to unsustainable groundwater pumping, while demand for food production - and therefore demand for irrigation water ­- is increasing. While it is likely that groundwater users will be impacted by the future's inevitable reduction in groundwater availability, there is a major gap in our understanding of potential impacts downstream of pumping sites. Due to inefficiencies in irrigation systems, significant amounts of abstracted groundwater become runoff, entering surface waters and flowing downstream to be re-abstracted and used again. In this study, we use a gridded water balance model to calculate the amount of unsustainably pumped groundwater that enters surface water systems by way of irrigation runoff, and quantify the additional irrigation water supplied by the re-use of this water. We assess the global budget of unsustainable groundwater sources and sinks, including downstream re-use, groundwater recharge, and flow to the oceans. Globally, we find that 80% of unsustainable groundwater is re-abstracted for irrigation either downstream or locally from groundwater recharge. This re-abstracted water contributes the water equivalent needed to irrigate 200,000 km2 of cropland globally. Including irrigation runoff reuse in an assessment of irrigation efficiency, we see that the traditional concept of irrigation efficiency (net irrigation/gross irrigation) significantly overestimates water "waste". We define a basin efficiency for unsustainable groundwater use that includes re-use, and see that while global irrigation efficiency is often estimated at 50%, global average unsustainable water use efficiency is > 60%. Losing this re-use resource by increasing irrigation efficiency does little to alleviate unsustainable groundwater demands.

  8. Methodology for estimating soil carbon for the forest carbon budget model of the United States, 2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    L. S. Heath; R. A. Birdsey; D. W. Williams

    2002-01-01

    The largest carbon (C) pool in United States forests is the soil C pool. We present methodology and soil C pool estimates used in the FORCARB model, which estimates and projects forest carbon budgets for the United States. The methodology balances knowledge, uncertainties, and ease of use. The estimates are calculated using the USDA Natural Resources Conservation...

  9. Revisiting the contemporary sea-level budget on global and regional scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rietbroek, Roelof; Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther; Kusche, Jürgen; Schröter, Jens; Dahle, Christoph

    2016-02-09

    Dividing the sea-level budget into contributions from ice sheets and glaciers, the water cycle, steric expansion, and crustal movement is challenging, especially on regional scales. Here, Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity observations and sea-level anomalies from altimetry are used in a joint inversion, ensuring a consistent decomposition of the global and regional sea-level rise budget. Over the years 2002-2014, we find a global mean steric trend of 1.38 ± 0.16 mm/y, compared with a total trend of 2.74 ± 0.58 mm/y. This is significantly larger than steric trends derived from in situ temperature/salinity profiles and models which range from 0.66 ± 0.2 to 0.94 ± 0.1 mm/y. Mass contributions from ice sheets and glaciers (1.37 ± 0.09 mm/y, accelerating with 0.03 ± 0.02 mm/y(2)) are offset by a negative hydrological component (-0.29 ± 0.26 mm/y). The combined mass rate (1.08 ± 0.3 mm/y) is smaller than previous GRACE estimates (up to 2 mm/y), but it is consistent with the sum of individual contributions (ice sheets, glaciers, and hydrology) found in literature. The altimetric sea-level budget is closed by coestimating a remaining component of 0.22 ± 0.26 mm/y. Well above average sea-level rise is found regionally near the Philippines (14.7 ± 4.39 mm/y) and Indonesia (8.3 ± 4.7 mm/y) which is dominated by steric components (11.2 ± 3.58 mm/y and 6.4 ± 3.18 mm/y, respectively). In contrast, in the central and Eastern part of the Pacific, negative steric trends (down to -2.8 ± 1.53 mm/y) are detected. Significant regional components are found, up to 5.3 ± 2.6 mm/y in the northwest Atlantic, which are likely due to ocean bottom pressure variations.

  10. Global Population Density Grid Time Series Estimates

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Population Density Grid Time Series Estimates provide a back-cast time series of population density grids based on the year 2000 population grid from SEDAC's...

  11. Comment on 'Current Budget of the Atmospheric Electric Global Circuit'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, Kevin T.; Blakeslee, Richard J.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, three major issues relevant to Kasemir's new model will be addressed. The first concerns Kasemir's assertion that there are significant differences between the potentials associated with the new model and the conventional model. A recalculation of these potentials reveals that both models provide equivalent results for the potential difference between the Earth and ionosphere. The second issue to be addressed is Kasemir's assertion that discrepancies in the electric potentials associated with both models can be attributed to modeling the Earth as a sphere, instead of as a planar surface. A simple analytical comparison will demonstrate that differences in the equations for the potentials of the atmosphere derived with a spherical and a planar Earth are negligible for applications to global current flow. Finally, the third issue to be discussed is Kasemir's claim that numerous aspects of the conventional model are incorrect, including the role of the ionosphere in global current flow as well as the significance of cloud-to-ground lightning in supplying charge to the global circuit. In order to refute these misconceptions, it will be shown that these aspects related to the flow of charge in the atmosphere are accurately described by the conventional model of the global circuit.

  12. Joint Application of Concentrations and Isotopic Signatures to Investigate the Global Atmospheric Carbon Monoxide Budget: Inverse Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, K.; Mak, J. E.; Emmons, L. K.

    2008-12-01

    Carbon monoxide is not only an important component for determining the atmospheric oxidizing capacity but also a key trace gas in the atmospheric chemistry of the Earth's background environment. The global CO cycle and its change are closely related to both the change of CO mixing ratio and the change of source strength. Previously, to estimate the global CO budget, most top-down estimation techniques have been applied the concentrations of CO solely. Since CO from certain sources has a unique isotopic signature, its isotopes provide additional information to constrain its sources. Thus, coupling the concentration and isotope fraction information enables to tightly constrain CO flux by its sources and allows better estimations on the global CO budget. MOZART4 (Model for Ozone And Related chemical Tracers), a 3-D global chemical transport model developed at NCAR, MPI for meteorology and NOAA/GFDL and is used to simulate the global CO concentration and its isotopic signature. Also, a tracer version of MOZART4 which tagged for C16O and C18O from each region and each source was developed to see their contributions to the atmosphere efficiently. Based on the nine-year-simulation results we analyze the influences of each source of CO to the isotopic signature and the concentration. Especially, the evaluations are focused on the oxygen isotope of CO (δ18O), which has not been extensively studied yet. To validate the model performance, CO concentrations and isotopic signatures measured from MPI, NIWA and our lab are compared to the modeled results. The MOZART4 reproduced observational data fairly well; especially in mid to high latitude northern hemisphere. Bayesian inversion techniques have been used to estimate the global CO budget with combining observed and modeled CO concentration. However, previous studies show significant differences in their estimations on CO source strengths. Because, in addition to the CO mixing ratio, isotopic signatures are independent tracers

  13. The carbon-budget approach to climate stabilization: Cost-effective subglobal versus global action

    OpenAIRE

    Eichner, Thomas; Pethig, Rüdiger

    2010-01-01

    Scientific expertise suggests that mitigating extreme world-wide climate change damages requires avoiding increases in the world mean temperature exceeding 2 degrees Celsius. To achieve the two degree target, the cumulated global emissions must not exceed some limit, the so-called global carbon budget. In a two-period two country general equilibrium model with a finite stock of fossil fuels we compare the cooperative cost-effective policy with the unilateral cost-effective policy of restricti...

  14. The carbon-budget approach to climate stabilization: Costeffective subglobal versus global action

    OpenAIRE

    Eichner, Thomas; Pethig, Rüdiger

    2010-01-01

    Scientific expertise suggests that mitigating extreme world-wide climate change damages requires avoiding increases in the world mean temperature exceeding 2ê Celsius. To achieve the two degree target, the cumulated global emissions must not exceed some limit, the so-called global carbon budget. In a two-period twocountry general equilibrium model with a finite stock of fossil fuels we compare the cooperative cost-effective policy with the unilateral cost-effective policy of restricting emiss...

  15. Nuclear Weapons Sustainment: Improvements Made to Budget Estimates Report, but Opportunities Remain to Further Enhance Transparency

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Enhance Transparency Report to Congressional Committees December 2015 GAO-16-23 United States Government Accountability Office United...SUSTAINMENT Improvements Made to Budget Estimates Report, but Opportunities Remain to Further Enhance Transparency Why GAO Did This Study DOD and DOE are...modernization plans and (2) complete, transparent information on the methodologies used to develop those estimates. GAO analyzed the departments

  16. Preliminary estimate of CO2 budget discharged from Vulcano island

    OpenAIRE

    Inguaggiato, S.; Mazot, A.; Diliberto, I. S.; Rowet, D.; Vita, F.; Capasso, G.; Bobrowski, N.; Inguaggiato, C.; Grassa, F.

    2008-01-01

    Total CO2 output from fumaroles, soil gases, bubbling and water dissolved gases were estimated at Vulcano Island, Italy. The fumaroles output has been estimated from SO2 plume flux, while soil flux emission has been carried out through 730 CO2 fluxes measured on the island surface, performed by means of accumulation chamber method. Vulcano Island, located in the Aeolian Archipelago, is an active volcano that has been in state of solphataric activity, since the last eruption (1888-1890). At p...

  17. Global Budgets and Technology-Intensive Medical Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Zirui; Fendrick, A Mark; Safran, Dana Gelb; Landon, Bruce; Chernew, Michael E

    2013-06-01

    In 2009-2010, Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts entered into global payment contracts (the Alternative Quality contract, AQC) with 11 provider organizations. We evaluated the impact of the AQC on spending and utilization of several categories of medical technologies, including one considered high value (colonoscopies) and three that include services that may be overused in some situations (cardiovascular, imaging, and orthopedic services). Approximately 420,000 unique enrollees in 2009 and 180,000 in 2010 were linked to primary care physicians whose organizations joined the AQC. Using three years of pre-intervention data and a large control group, we analyzed changes in utilization and spending associated with the AQC with a propensity-weighted difference-in-differences approach adjusting for enrollee demographics, health status, secular trends, and cost-sharing. In the 2009 AQC cohort, total volume of colonoscopies increased 5.2 percent (p=0.04) in the first two years of the contract relative to control. The contract was associated with varied changes in volume for cardiovascular and imaging services, but total spending on cardiovascular services in the first two years decreased by 7.4% (p=0.02) while total spending on imaging services decreased by 6.1% (pservices, these decreases were also attributable to shifting care to lower-priced providers. No effect was found in orthopedics. As one example of a large-scale global payment initiative, the AQC was associated with higher use of colonoscopies. Among several categories of services whose value may be controversial, the contract generally shifted volume to lower-priced facilities or services.

  18. Global aerosol transport and consequences for the radiation budget

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newiger, M.; Grassl, H.; Schussel, P.; Rehkopf, J.

    1984-01-01

    Man's activities may influence global climate by changing the atmospheric composition and surface characteristics and by waste heat. Most prominent within this discussion is the increase or decrease of radiatively active trace gases like CO/sub 2/, N/sub 2/O, O/sub 3/, and others. The general opinion is converging towards a greenhouse effect as a combined action of all trace gases, whose exact magnitude is uncertain mainly because of the unknown reaction of water cycle. The aim of our global 2-D (resolving latitude and height) aerosol transport model is the calculation of aerosol particle number density profiles as a function of latitude for present natural plus anthropogenic emissions. The aerosol transport model uses prescribed meridonal circulation, diffusivity factors and cloud climatology for January as well as July. All these latitude and height dependent input parameters were taken from well known sources. The fixed climatology excludes the feedback of aerosol particle parameter changes on mean circulation. However, the radiative parameters of six clouds types are modified, although they possess by adoption of the Telegadas and London (1954) cloud climatology prescribed amount and height. The inclusion of the feedback on mean circulation seems premature at present. Adding particles either accounting for natural emissions or natural anthropogenic emission and removing particles by all known sinks outside and within clouds gives us - for the stationary state - vertical profiles of aerosol number density in three sizes classes as a function of latitude. These profiles in turn are input for radiation flux calculations in clear and cloudy areas in order to assess net flux changes caused by the present aerosol load in comparison to a scenario without anthropogenic emissions. The net flux changes finally are compared to those calculated for increased CO/sub 2/ levels

  19. Constraining the global carbon budget from global to regional scales - The measurement challenge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Francey, R.J.; Rayner, P.J.; Allison, C.E.

    2002-01-01

    The Global Carbon Cycle can be modelled by a Bayesian synthesis inversion technique, where measured atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and isotopic compositions are analysed by use of an atmospheric transport model and estimates of regional sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon. The uncertainty associated to carbon flux estimates even on a regional scale can be improved considerably using the inversion technique. In this approach, besides the necessary control on the precision of atmospheric transport models and on the constraints for surface fluxes, an important component is the calibration of atmospheric CO 2 concentration and isotope measurements. The recent improved situation in respect to data comparability is discussed using results of conducted interlaboratory comparison exercises and larger scale calibration programs are proposed for the future to further improve the comparability of analytical data. (author)

  20. Pricing hospital care: Global budgets and marginal pricing strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutherland, Jason M

    2015-08-01

    The Canadian province of British Columbia (BC) is adding financial incentives to increase the volume of surgeries provided by hospitals using a marginal pricing approach. The objective of this study is to calculate marginal costs of surgeries based on assumptions regarding hospitals' availability of labor and equipment. This study is based on observational clinical, administrative and financial data generated by hospitals. Hospital inpatient and outpatient discharge summaries from the province are linked with detailed activity-based costing information, stratified by assigned case mix categorizations. To reflect a range of operating constraints governing hospitals' ability to increase their volume of surgeries, a number of scenarios are proposed. Under these scenarios, estimated marginal costs are calculated and compared to prices being offered as incentives to hospitals. Existing data can be used to support alternative strategies for pricing hospital care. Prices for inpatient surgeries do not generate positive margins under a range of operating scenarios. Hip and knee surgeries generate surpluses for hospitals even under the most costly labor conditions and are expected to generate additional volume. In health systems that wish to fine-tune financial incentives, setting prices that create incentives for additional volume should reflect knowledge of hospitals' underlying cost structures. Possible implications of mis-pricing include no response to the incentives or uneven increases in supply. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  1. A synthesis of the impact of Russian forests on the global carbon budget for 1961-1998

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shvidenko, Anatoly; Nilsson, Sten

    2003-01-01

    An attempt is made to synthesize the current understanding of the impact of Russian forests on the global carbon (C) budget for the period 1961-1998 (37 years), based on a detailed inventory of pools and fluxes in 1988-1992, and a historical reconstruction of a full forest carbon budget for 1961-1998. All major intermediate indicators of the budget (phytomass, net primary production, impact of disturbances, soil respiration, etc.) were independently estimated and compared with earlier reported results. During the entire period, the C pools of Russian forest land (FL, 882.0 106 ha in 1998) increased by 433 Tg C/yr, of which 153 Tg C/yr are accumulated in live biomass, 57 Tg C/yr in above- and below-ground dead wood, and 223 Tg C/yr are sequestered in soil. A significant part of this increase deals with land-cover changes. The annual average C uptake by the FL from the atmosphere, defined by a flux-based method, is estimated to be 322 Tg C/yr for 1961-1998. The lateral transport to the lithosphere and hydrosphere comprised 47 Tg C/yr (including charcoal), which is considered part of the 'missing C sink.' The uncertainties (excluding unrecognized biases) of averages for the entire period are estimated to be in the range of ±5-8% and ±24% for major fluxes out/into the atmosphere and for net ecosystem exchange, respectively (a priori confidential probability of 0.9). If the impact of land-cover change is excluded, the average annual sink in 1961-1998, estimated by both pool- and flux-based methods, was 268 ± 94 and 272 ± 68 Tg C/yr, respectively. The reported results are in line with recent estimates for Northern Eurasia made by inverse modeling at the continental scale, if land classes other than forests contribute to the total sink of terrestrial vegetation

  2. Anisotropic Density Estimation in Global Illumination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjøth, Lars

    2009-01-01

    Density estimation employed in multi-pass global illumination algorithms gives cause to a trade-off problem between bias and noise. The problem is seen most evident as blurring of strong illumination features. This thesis addresses the problem, presenting four methods that reduce both noise...

  3. A Stable U Isotopic Perspective on the U Budget and Global Extent of Modern Anoxia in the Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tissot, F.; Dauphas, N.

    2015-12-01

    Isotopic fractionation between U4+ and U6+makes U stable isotopes potential tracers of global paleoredox conditions. In this work [1], we put the U-proxy up to a test against a highly constrained system: the modern ocean. We measured a large number of seawater samples from geographically diverse locations and found that the open ocean has a homogenous isotopic composition at δ238USW= -0.392 ± 0.005 ‰ (rel. to CRM-112a). From our measurement of rock samples (n=64) and compilations of literature data (n=380), we then estimated the U isotopic compositions of the various reservoirs involved in the modern oceanic U budget, as well as the fractionation factors associated with U incorporation into those reservoirs. Using a steady-state model, we compared the isotopic composition of the seawater predicted by the four most recent U oceanic budgets [2-5] to the modern seawater value we measured. Three of these budgets [2-4] predict a seawater isotopic composition in very good agreement with the observed δ238USW, which strengthens our confidence in the isotopic fractionation factors associated with each deposition environment and the fact that U is at steady-state in the modern ocean. The U oceanic budget of Henderson and Anderson (2003) does not reproduce the observed seawater composition because the U flux to anoxic/euxinic sediments relative to the total U flux out of the ocean is high in their model, which our analysis shows cannot be correct. The U isotopic composition of seawater is used to constrain the extent of anoxia in the modern ocean (% of seafloor covered by anoxic/euxinic sediments), which is 0.21 ± 0.09 %. This work demonstrates that stable isotopes of U can indeed trace the extent of anoxia in the modern global ocean, thereby validating the application of U isotope measurements to paleoredox reconstructions. Based on the above work, we will present the best estimate of the modern oceanic U budget. [1] Tissot F.L.H., Dauphas N. (2015) Geochim Cosmochim

  4. Estimating the budget impact of orphan drugs in Sweden and France 2013-2020.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchings, Adam; Schey, Carina; Dutton, Richard; Achana, Felix; Antonov, Karolina

    2014-02-13

    The growth in expenditure on orphan medicinal products (OMP) across Europe has been identified as a concern. Estimates of future expenditure in Europe have suggested that OMPs could account for a significant proportion of total pharmaceutical expenditure in some countries, but few of these forecasts have been well validated. This analysis aims to establish a robust forecast of the future budget impact of OMPs on the healthcare systems in Sweden and France. A dynamic forecasting model was created to estimate the budget impact of OMPs in Sweden and France between 2013 and 2020. The model used historical data on OMP designation and approval rates to predict the number of new OMPs coming to the market. Average OMP sales were estimated for each year post-launch by regression analysis of historical sales data. Total forecast sales were compared with expected sales of all pharmaceuticals in each country to quantify the relative budget impact. The model predicts that by 2020, 152 OMPs will have marketing authorization in Europe. The base case OMP budget impacts are forecast to grow from 2.7% in Sweden and 3.2% in France of total drug expenditure in 2013 to 4.1% in Sweden and 4.9% in France by 2020. The principal driver of expenditure growth is the number of new OMPs obtaining OMP designation. This is tempered by the slowing success rate for new approvals and the loss of intellectual property protection on existing orphan medicines. Given the forward-looking nature of the analysis, uncertainty exists around model parameters and sensitivity analysis found peak year budget impact varying between 2% and 11%. The budget impact of OMPs in Sweden and France is likely to remain sustainable over time and a relatively small proportion of total pharmaceutical expenditure. This forecast could be affected by changes in the success rate for OMP approvals, average cost of OMPs, and the type of companies developing OMPs.

  5. Estimating the budget impact of orphan drugs in Sweden and France 2013–2020

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background The growth in expenditure on orphan medicinal products (OMP) across Europe has been identified as a concern. Estimates of future expenditure in Europe have suggested that OMPs could account for a significant proportion of total pharmaceutical expenditure in some countries, but few of these forecasts have been well validated. This analysis aims to establish a robust forecast of the future budget impact of OMPs on the healthcare systems in Sweden and France. Methods A dynamic forecasting model was created to estimate the budget impact of OMPs in Sweden and France between 2013 and 2020. The model used historical data on OMP designation and approval rates to predict the number of new OMPs coming to the market. Average OMP sales were estimated for each year post-launch by regression analysis of historical sales data. Total forecast sales were compared with expected sales of all pharmaceuticals in each country to quantify the relative budget impact. Results The model predicts that by 2020, 152 OMPs will have marketing authorization in Europe. The base case OMP budget impacts are forecast to grow from 2.7% in Sweden and 3.2% in France of total drug expenditure in 2013 to 4.1% in Sweden and 4.9% in France by 2020. The principal driver of expenditure growth is the number of new OMPs obtaining OMP designation. This is tempered by the slowing success rate for new approvals and the loss of intellectual property protection on existing orphan medicines. Given the forward-looking nature of the analysis, uncertainty exists around model parameters and sensitivity analysis found peak year budget impact varying between 2% and 11%. Conclusion The budget impact of OMPs in Sweden and France is likely to remain sustainable over time and a relatively small proportion of total pharmaceutical expenditure. This forecast could be affected by changes in the success rate for OMP approvals, average cost of OMPs, and the type of companies developing OMPs. PMID:24524281

  6. Budget estimates: Fiscal year 1994. Volume 3: Research and program management

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-01-01

    The research and program management (R&PM) appropriation provides the salaries, other personnel and related costs, and travel support for NASA's civil service workforce. This FY 1994 budget funds costs associated with 23,623 full-time equivalent (FTE) work years. Budget estimates are provided for all NASA centers by categories such as space station and new technology investments, space flight programs, space science, life and microgravity sciences, advanced concepts and technology, center management and operations support, launch services, mission to planet earth, tracking and data programs, aeronautical research and technology, and safety, reliability, and quality assurance.

  7. Cumulative carbon emissions budgets consistent with 1.5 °C global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokarska, Katarzyna B.; Gillett, Nathan P.

    2018-04-01

    The Paris Agreement1 commits ratifying parties to pursue efforts to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Carbon budgets2-5 consistent with remaining below 1.5 °C warming, reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)2,6,8, are directly based on Earth system model (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)7 responses, which, on average, warm more than observations in response to historical CO2 emissions and other forcings8,9. These models indicate a median remaining budget of 55 PgC (ref. 10, base period: year 1870) left to emit from January 2016, the equivalent to approximately five years of emissions at the 2015 rate11,12. Here we calculate warming and carbon budgets relative to the decade 2006-2015, which eliminates model-observation differences in the climate-carbon response over the historical period9, and increases the median remaining carbon budget to 208 PgC (33-66% range of 130-255 PgC) from January 2016 (with mean warming of 0.89 °C for 2006-2015 relative to 1861-188013-18). There is little sensitivity to the observational data set used to infer warming that has occurred, and no significant dependence on the choice of emissions scenario. Thus, although limiting median projected global warming to below 1.5 °C is undoubtedly challenging19-21, our results indicate it is not impossible, as might be inferred from the IPCC AR5 carbon budgets2,8.

  8. Multisource Estimation of Long-term Global Terrestrial Surface Radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, L.; Sheffield, J.

    2017-12-01

    Land surface net radiation is the essential energy source at the earth's surface. It determines the surface energy budget and its partitioning, drives the hydrological cycle by providing available energy, and offers heat, light, and energy for biological processes. Individual components in net radiation have changed historically due to natural and anthropogenic climate change and land use change. Decadal variations in radiation such as global dimming or brightening have important implications for hydrological and carbon cycles. In order to assess the trends and variability of net radiation and evapotranspiration, there is a need for accurate estimates of long-term terrestrial surface radiation. While large progress in measuring top of atmosphere energy budget has been made, huge discrepancies exist among ground observations, satellite retrievals, and reanalysis fields of surface radiation, due to the lack of observational networks, the difficulty in measuring from space, and the uncertainty in algorithm parameters. To overcome the weakness of single source datasets, we propose a multi-source merging approach to fully utilize and combine multiple datasets of radiation components separately, as they are complementary in space and time. First, we conduct diagnostic analysis of multiple satellite and reanalysis datasets based on in-situ measurements such as Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA), existing validation studies, and other information such as network density and consistency with other meteorological variables. Then, we calculate the optimal weighted average of multiple datasets by minimizing the variance of error between in-situ measurements and other observations. Finally, we quantify the uncertainties in the estimates of surface net radiation and employ physical constraints based on the surface energy balance to reduce these uncertainties. The final dataset is evaluated in terms of the long-term variability and its attribution to changes in individual

  9. Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory Falling Snow Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skofronick Jackson, G.; Kulie, M.; Milani, L.; Munchak, S. J.; Wood, N.; Levizzani, V.

    2017-12-01

    Retrievals of falling snow from space represent an important data set for understanding and linking the Earth's atmospheric, hydrological, and energy cycles. Estimates of falling snow must be captured to obtain the true global precipitation water cycle, snowfall accumulations are required for hydrological studies, and without knowledge of the frozen particles in clouds one cannot adequately understand the energy and radiation budgets. This work focuses on comparing the first stable falling snow retrieval products (released May 2017) for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory (GPM-CO), which was launched February 2014, and carries both an active dual frequency (Ku- and Ka-band) precipitation radar (DPR) and a passive microwave radiometer (GPM Microwave Imager-GMI). Five separate GPM-CO falling snow retrieval algorithm products are analyzed including those from DPR Matched (Ka+Ku) Scan, DPR Normal Scan (Ku), DPR High Sensitivity Scan (Ka), combined DPR+GMI, and GMI. While satellite-based remote sensing provides global coverage of falling snow events, the science is relatively new, the different on-orbit instruments don't capture all snow rates equally, and retrieval algorithms differ. Thus a detailed comparison among the GPM-CO products elucidates advantages and disadvantages of the retrievals. GPM and CloudSat global snowfall evaluation exercises are natural investigative pathways to explore, but caution must be undertaken when analyzing these datasets for comparative purposes. This work includes outlining the challenges associated with comparing GPM-CO to CloudSat satellite snow estimates due to the different sampling, algorithms, and instrument capabilities. We will highlight some factors and assumptions that can be altered or statistically normalized and applied in an effort to make comparisons between GPM and CloudSat global satellite falling snow products as equitable as possible.

  10. Simulated effects of nitrogen saturation the global carbon budget using the IBIS model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xuehe; Jiang, Hong; Liu, Jinxun; Zhang, Xiuying; Jin, Jiaxin; Zhu, Qiuan; Zhang, Zhen; Peng, Changhui

    2016-01-01

    Over the past 100 years, human activity has greatly changed the rate of atmospheric N (nitrogen) deposition in terrestrial ecosystems, resulting in N saturation in some regions of the world. The contribution of N saturation to the global carbon budget remains uncertain due to the complicated nature of C-N (carbon-nitrogen) interactions and diverse geography. Although N deposition is included in most terrestrial ecosystem models, the effect of N saturation is frequently overlooked. In this study, the IBIS (Integrated BIosphere Simulator) was used to simulate the global-scale effects of N saturation during the period 1961–2009. The results of this model indicate that N saturation reduced global NPP (Net Primary Productivity) and NEP (Net Ecosystem Productivity) by 0.26 and 0.03 Pg C yr−1, respectively. The negative effects of N saturation on carbon sequestration occurred primarily in temperate forests and grasslands. In response to elevated CO2 levels, global N turnover slowed due to increased biomass growth, resulting in a decline in soil mineral N. These changes in N cycling reduced the impact of N saturation on the global carbon budget. However, elevated N deposition in certain regions may further alter N saturation and C-N coupling.

  11. Assessing Hydrological and Energy Budgets in Amazonia through Regional Downscaling, and Comparisons with Global Reanalysis Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, A.; Ivanov, V. Y.

    2014-12-01

    Although current global reanalyses provide reasonably accurate large-scale features of the atmosphere, systematic errors are still found in the hydrological and energy budgets of such products. In the tropics, precipitation is particularly challenging to model, which is also adversely affected by the scarcity of hydrometeorological datasets in the region. With the goal of producing downscaled analyses that are appropriate for a climate assessment at regional scales, a regional spectral model has used a combination of precipitation assimilation with scale-selective bias correction. The latter is similar to the spectral nudging technique, which prevents the departure of the regional model's internal states from the large-scale forcing. The target area in this study is the Amazon region, where large errors are detected in reanalysis precipitation. To generate the downscaled analysis, the regional climate model used NCEP/DOE R2 global reanalysis as the initial and lateral boundary conditions, and assimilated NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) MORPHed precipitation (CMORPH), available at 0.25-degree resolution, every 3 hours. The regional model's precipitation was successfully brought closer to the observations, in comparison to the NCEP global reanalysis products, as a result of the impact of a precipitation assimilation scheme on cumulus-convection parameterization, and improved boundary forcing achieved through a new version of scale-selective bias correction. Water and energy budget terms were also evaluated against global reanalyses and other datasets.

  12. Focus on cumulative emissions, global carbon budgets and the implications for climate mitigation targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damon Matthews, H.; Zickfeld, Kirsten; Knutti, Reto; Allen, Myles R.

    2018-01-01

    The Environmental Research Letters focus issue on ‘Cumulative Emissions, Global Carbon Budgets and the Implications for Climate Mitigation Targets’ was launched in 2015 to highlight the emerging science of the climate response to cumulative emissions, and how this can inform efforts to decrease emissions fast enough to avoid dangerous climate impacts. The 22 research articles published represent a fantastic snapshot of the state-or-the-art in this field, covering both the science and policy aspects of cumulative emissions and carbon budget research. In this Review and Synthesis, we summarize the findings published in this focus issue, outline some suggestions for ongoing research needs, and present our assessment of the implications of this research for ongoing efforts to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement.

  13. Hospital non-price competition under the Global Budget Payment and Prospective Payment Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wen-Yi; Lin, Yu-Hui

    2008-06-01

    This paper provides theoretical analyses of two alternative hospital payment systems for controlling medical cost: the Global Budget Payment System (GBPS) and the Prospective Payment System (PPS). The former method assigns a fixed total budget for all healthcare services over a given period with hospitals being paid on a fee-for-service basis. The latter method is usually connected with a fixed payment to hospitals within a Diagnosis-Related Group. Our results demonstrate that, given the same expenditure, the GBPS would approach optimal levels of quality and efficiency as well as the level of social welfare provided by the PPS, as long as market competition is sufficiently high; our results also demonstrate that the treadmill effect, modeling an inverse relationship between price and quantity under the GBPS, would be a quality-enhancing and efficiency-improving outcome due to market competition.

  14. Strategies for estimating the water budget at different scales using the JGrass-NewAGE system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bancheri, M.; Rigon, R.; Serafin, F.; Abera, W.; Bottazzi, M.

    2017-12-01

    Recently we presented two papers one dedicated to the estimation of the water budget components in a small, basin, the Posina catchment [Abera et al., 2017], and the other in a large basin, the Blue Nile [Abera et al., 2017b]. At the smallest scale the ground measurements available do not guarantee the closure of the budget without making additional hypothesis. The large scale case, instead, was largely supported by remote sensing data either for calibration and/or validation. This contribution explains how we actually did it, clarifies some aspects of the informatics and openly discusses the issues risen in our work. We also consider varying configuration of the water budget schemes at the subbasin level, and how this affects the estimates.Finally we analyse the problem of travel times [Rigon et al., 2016a, Rigon et al, 2016b] as it comes out from considering the multiple fluxes and storages. All considerations and simulations are based on the JGrass-NewAGE system [Formetta et al., 2014] and its evolution (Bancheri [2017]).ReferencesAbera, W., Formetta, G., Borga, M., & Rigon, R. (2017a). Estimating the water budget components and their variability in a pre-alpine basin with JGrass-NewAGE. Advances in Water Resources, http://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.03.010Abera, W., Formetta, G., Brocca, L., & Rigon, R. (2017b). Modeling the water budget of the Upper Blue Nile basin using the JGrass-NewAge model system and satellite data. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. http://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3145-2017Bancheri, M., A travel time model for water budget of complex catchments, ph.D Thesis, 2017Formetta, G., Antonello, A., Franceschi, S., David, O., & Rigon, R. (2014). Hydrological modelling with components: A GIS-based open-source framework. Environmental Modelling and Software,. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.01.019Rigon, R., Bancheri, M., Formetta, G., & de Lavenne, A. (2016). The geomorphological unit hydrograph from a historical-critical perspective

  15. Estimating the Global Burden of Endemic Canine Rabies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hampson, Katie; Coudeville, Laurent; Lembo, Tiziana; Sambo, Maganga; Kieffer, Alexia; Attlan, Michaël; Barrat, Jacques; Blanton, Jesse D.; Briggs, Deborah J.; Cleaveland, Sarah; Costa, Peter; Freuling, Conrad M.; Hiby, Elly; Knopf, Lea; Leanes, Fernando; Meslin, François-Xavier; Metlin, Artem; Miranda, Mary Elizabeth; Müller, Thomas; Nel, Louis H.; Recuenco, Sergio; Rupprecht, Charles E.; Schumacher, Carolin; Taylor, Louise; Vigilato, Marco Antonio Natal; Zinsstag, Jakob; Dushoff, Jonathan

    2015-01-01

    Background Rabies is a notoriously underreported and neglected disease of low-income countries. This study aims to estimate the public health and economic burden of rabies circulating in domestic dog populations, globally and on a country-by-country basis, allowing an objective assessment of how much this preventable disease costs endemic countries. Methodology/Principal Findings We established relationships between rabies mortality and rabies prevention and control measures, which we incorporated into a model framework. We used data derived from extensive literature searches and questionnaires on disease incidence, control interventions and preventative measures within this framework to estimate the disease burden. The burden of rabies impacts on public health sector budgets, local communities and livestock economies, with the highest risk of rabies in the poorest regions of the world. This study estimates that globally canine rabies causes approximately 59,000 (95% Confidence Intervals: 25-159,000) human deaths, over 3.7 million (95% CIs: 1.6-10.4 million) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and 8.6 billion USD (95% CIs: 2.9-21.5 billion) economic losses annually. The largest component of the economic burden is due to premature death (55%), followed by direct costs of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP, 20%) and lost income whilst seeking PEP (15.5%), with only limited costs to the veterinary sector due to dog vaccination (1.5%), and additional costs to communities from livestock losses (6%). Conclusions/Significance This study demonstrates that investment in dog vaccination, the single most effective way of reducing the disease burden, has been inadequate and that the availability and affordability of PEP needs improving. Collaborative investments by medical and veterinary sectors could dramatically reduce the current large, and unnecessary, burden of rabies on affected communities. Improved surveillance is needed to reduce uncertainty in burden estimates and to

  16. Estimating the global burden of endemic canine rabies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katie Hampson

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Rabies is a notoriously underreported and neglected disease of low-income countries. This study aims to estimate the public health and economic burden of rabies circulating in domestic dog populations, globally and on a country-by-country basis, allowing an objective assessment of how much this preventable disease costs endemic countries.We established relationships between rabies mortality and rabies prevention and control measures, which we incorporated into a model framework. We used data derived from extensive literature searches and questionnaires on disease incidence, control interventions and preventative measures within this framework to estimate the disease burden. The burden of rabies impacts on public health sector budgets, local communities and livestock economies, with the highest risk of rabies in the poorest regions of the world. This study estimates that globally canine rabies causes approximately 59,000 (95% Confidence Intervals: 25-159,000 human deaths, over 3.7 million (95% CIs: 1.6-10.4 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs and 8.6 billion USD (95% CIs: 2.9-21.5 billion economic losses annually. The largest component of the economic burden is due to premature death (55%, followed by direct costs of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP, 20% and lost income whilst seeking PEP (15.5%, with only limited costs to the veterinary sector due to dog vaccination (1.5%, and additional costs to communities from livestock losses (6%.This study demonstrates that investment in dog vaccination, the single most effective way of reducing the disease burden, has been inadequate and that the availability and affordability of PEP needs improving. Collaborative investments by medical and veterinary sectors could dramatically reduce the current large, and unnecessary, burden of rabies on affected communities. Improved surveillance is needed to reduce uncertainty in burden estimates and to monitor the impacts of control efforts.

  17. Effects of aerosol/cloud interactions on the global radiation budget

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chuang, C.C.; Penner, J.E.

    1994-01-01

    Aerosols may modify the microphysics of clouds by acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), thereby enhancing the cloud reflectivity. Aerosols may also alter precipitation development by affecting the mean droplet size, thereby influencing cloud lifetimes and modifying the hydrological cycle. Clouds have a major effect on climate, but aerosol/cloud interactions have not been accounted for in past climate model simulations. However, the worldwide steady rise of global pollutants and emissions makes it imperative to investigate how atmospheric aerosols affect clouds and the global radiation budget. In this paper, the authors examine the relationship between aerosol and cloud drop size distributions by using a detailed micro-physical model. They parameterize the cloud nucleation process in terms of local aerosol characteristics and updraft velocity for use in a coupled climate/chemistry model to predict the magnitude of aerosol cloud forcing. Their simulations indicate that aerosol/cloud interactions may result in important increases in reflected solar radiation, which would mask locally the radiative forcing from increased greenhouse gases. This work is aimed at improving the assessment of the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud optical properties and the global radiation budget

  18. Global warming: Temperature estimation in annealers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jack Raymond

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Sampling from a Boltzmann distribution is NP-hard and so requires heuristic approaches. Quantum annealing is one promising candidate. The failure of annealing dynamics to equilibrate on practical time scales is a well understood limitation, but does not always prevent a heuristically useful distribution from being generated. In this paper we evaluate several methods for determining a useful operational temperature range for annealers. We show that, even where distributions deviate from the Boltzmann distribution due to ergodicity breaking, these estimates can be useful. We introduce the concepts of local and global temperatures that are captured by different estimation methods. We argue that for practical application it often makes sense to analyze annealers that are subject to post-processing in order to isolate the macroscopic distribution deviations that are a practical barrier to their application.

  19. Evaluation of the Global Mean Sea Level Budget between 1993 and 2014

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chambers, Don P.; Cazenave, Anny; Champollion, Nicolas

    2017-01-01

    Evaluating global mean sea level (GMSL) in terms of its components—mass and steric—is useful for both quantifying the accuracy of the measurements and understanding the processes that contribute to GMSL rise. In this paper, we review the GMSL budget over two periods—1993 to 2014 and 2005 to 2014......—using multiple data sets of both total GMSL and the components (mass and steric). In addition to comparing linear trends, we also compare the level of agreement of the time series. For the longer period (1993–2014), we find closure in terms of the long-term trend but not for year-to-year variations...

  20. Impact of short-lived non-CO2 mitigation on carbon budgets for stabilizing global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogelj, Joeri; Riahi, Keywan; Meinshausen, Malte; Schaeffer, Michiel; Knutti, Reto

    2015-01-01

    Limiting global warming to any level requires limiting the total amount of CO 2 emissions, or staying within a CO 2 budget. Here we assess how emissions from short-lived non-CO 2 species like methane, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), black-carbon, and sulphates influence these CO 2 budgets. Our default case, which assumes mitigation in all sectors and of all gases, results in a CO 2 budget between 2011–2100 of 340 PgC for a >66% chance of staying below 2°C, consistent with the assessment of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Extreme variations of air-pollutant emissions from black-carbon and sulphates influence this budget by about ±5%. In the hypothetical case of no methane or HFCs mitigation—which is unlikely when CO 2 is stringently reduced—the budgets would be much smaller (40% or up to 60%, respectively). However, assuming very stringent CH 4 mitigation as a sensitivity case, CO 2 budgets could be 25% higher. A limit on cumulative CO 2 emissions remains critical for temperature targets. Even a 25% higher CO 2 budget still means peaking global emissions in the next two decades, and achieving net zero CO 2 emissions during the third quarter of the 21st century. The leverage we have to affect the CO 2 budget by targeting non-CO 2 diminishes strongly along with CO 2 mitigation, because these are partly linked through economic and technological factors. (letter)

  1. Global and regional phosphorus budgets in agricultural systems and their implications for phosphorus-use efficiency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Lun

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The application of phosphorus (P fertilizer to agricultural soils increased by 3.2 % annually from 2002 to 2010. We quantified in detail the P inputs and outputs of cropland and pasture and the P fluxes through human and livestock consumers of agricultural products on global, regional, and national scales from 2002 to 2010. Globally, half of the total P inputs into agricultural systems accumulated in agricultural soils during this period, with the rest lost to bodies of water through complex flows. Global P accumulation in agricultural soil increased from 2002 to 2010 despite decreases in 2008 and 2009, and the P accumulation occurred primarily in cropland. Despite the global increase in soil P, 32 % of the world's cropland and 43 % of the pasture had soil P deficits. Increasing soil P deficits were found for African cropland vs. increasing P accumulation in eastern Asia. European and North American pasture had a soil P deficit because the continuous removal of biomass P by grazing exceeded P inputs. International trade played a significant role in P redistribution among countries through the flows of P in fertilizer and food among countries. Based on country-scale budgets and trends we propose policy options to potentially mitigate regional P imbalances in agricultural soils, particularly by optimizing the use of phosphate fertilizer and the recycling of waste P. The trend of the increasing consumption of livestock products will require more P inputs to the agricultural system, implying a low P-use efficiency and aggravating P-stock scarcity in the future. The global and regional phosphorus budgets and their PUEs in agricultural systems are publicly available at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.875296.

  2. Global and regional phosphorus budgets in agricultural systems and their implications for phosphorus-use efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lun, Fei; Liu, Junguo; Ciais, Philippe; Nesme, Thomas; Chang, Jinfeng; Wang, Rong; Goll, Daniel; Sardans, Jordi; Peñuelas, Josep; Obersteiner, Michael

    2018-01-01

    The application of phosphorus (P) fertilizer to agricultural soils increased by 3.2 % annually from 2002 to 2010. We quantified in detail the P inputs and outputs of cropland and pasture and the P fluxes through human and livestock consumers of agricultural products on global, regional, and national scales from 2002 to 2010. Globally, half of the total P inputs into agricultural systems accumulated in agricultural soils during this period, with the rest lost to bodies of water through complex flows. Global P accumulation in agricultural soil increased from 2002 to 2010 despite decreases in 2008 and 2009, and the P accumulation occurred primarily in cropland. Despite the global increase in soil P, 32 % of the world's cropland and 43 % of the pasture had soil P deficits. Increasing soil P deficits were found for African cropland vs. increasing P accumulation in eastern Asia. European and North American pasture had a soil P deficit because the continuous removal of biomass P by grazing exceeded P inputs. International trade played a significant role in P redistribution among countries through the flows of P in fertilizer and food among countries. Based on country-scale budgets and trends we propose policy options to potentially mitigate regional P imbalances in agricultural soils, particularly by optimizing the use of phosphate fertilizer and the recycling of waste P. The trend of the increasing consumption of livestock products will require more P inputs to the agricultural system, implying a low P-use efficiency and aggravating P-stock scarcity in the future. The global and regional phosphorus budgets and their PUEs in agricultural systems are publicly available at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.875296.

  3. The Ozone Budget in the Upper Troposphere from Global Modeling Initiative (GMI)Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriquez, J.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Logan, Jennifer A.

    2006-01-01

    Ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere are influenced by in-situ production, long-range tropospheric transport, and influx of stratospheric ozone, as well as by photochemical removal. Since ozone is an important greenhouse gas in this region, it is particularly important to understand how it will respond to changes in anthropogenic emissions and changes in stratospheric ozone fluxes.. This response will be determined by the relative balance of the different production, loss and transport processes. Ozone concentrations calculated by models will differ depending on the adopted meteorological fields, their chemical scheme, anthropogenic emissions, and treatment of the stratospheric influx. We performed simulations using the chemical-transport model from the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) with meteorological fields from (It)h e NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM), (2) the atmospheric GCM from NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office(GMAO), and (3) assimilated winds from GMAO . These simulations adopt the same chemical mechanism and emissions, and adopt the Synthetic Ozone (SYNOZ) approach for treating the influx of stratospheric ozone -. In addition, we also performed simulations for a coupled troposphere-stratosphere model with a subset of the same winds. Simulations were done for both 4degx5deg and 2degx2.5deg resolution. Model results are being tested through comparison with a suite of atmospheric observations. In this presentation, we diagnose the ozone budget in the upper troposphere utilizing the suite of GMI simulations, to address the sensitivity of this budget to: a) the different meteorological fields used; b) the adoption of the SYNOZ boundary condition versus inclusion of a full stratosphere; c) model horizontal resolution. Model results are compared to observations to determine biases in particular simulations; by examining these comparisons in conjunction with the derived budgets, we may pinpoint

  4. A global algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDougall, T. J.; Jackett, D. R.; Millero, F. J.; Pawlowicz, R.; Barker, P. M.

    2012-12-01

    The International Thermodynamic Equation of Seawater - 2010 has defined the thermodynamic properties of seawater in terms of a new salinity variable, Absolute Salinity, which takes into account the spatial variation of the composition of seawater. Absolute Salinity more accurately reflects the effects of the dissolved material in seawater on the thermodynamic properties (particularly density) than does Practical Salinity. When a seawater sample has standard composition (i.e. the ratios of the constituents of sea salt are the same as those of surface water of the North Atlantic), Practical Salinity can be used to accurately evaluate the thermodynamic properties of seawater. When seawater is not of standard composition, Practical Salinity alone is not sufficient and the Absolute Salinity Anomaly needs to be estimated; this anomaly is as large as 0.025 g kg-1 in the northernmost North Pacific. Here we provide an algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity Anomaly for any location (x, y, p) in the world ocean. To develop this algorithm, we used the Absolute Salinity Anomaly that is found by comparing the density calculated from Practical Salinity to the density measured in the laboratory. These estimates of Absolute Salinity Anomaly however are limited to the number of available observations (namely 811). In order to provide a practical method that can be used at any location in the world ocean, we take advantage of approximate relationships between Absolute Salinity Anomaly and silicate concentrations (which are available globally).

  5. The 'Alternative Quality Contract,' based on a global budget, lowered medical spending and improved quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Zirui; Safran, Dana Gelb; Landon, Bruce E; Landrum, Mary Beth; He, Yulei; Mechanic, Robert E; Day, Matthew P; Chernew, Michael E

    2012-08-01

    Seven provider organizations in Massachusetts entered the Blue Cross Blue Shield Alternative Quality Contract in 2009, followed by four more organizations in 2010. This contract, based on a global budget and pay-for-performance for achieving certain quality benchmarks, places providers at risk for excessive spending and rewards them for quality, similar to the new Pioneer Accountable Care Organizations in Medicare. We analyzed changes in spending and quality associated with the Alternative Quality Contract and found that the rate of increase in spending slowed compared to control groups, more so in the second year than in the first. Overall, participation in the contract over two years led to savings of 2.8 percent (1.9 percent in year 1 and 3.3 percent in year 2) compared to spending in nonparticipating groups. Savings were accounted for by lower prices achieved through shifting procedures, imaging, and tests to facilities with lower fees, as well as reduced utilization among some groups. Quality of care also improved compared to control organizations, with chronic care management, adult preventive care, and pediatric care within the contracting groups improving more in year 2 than in year 1. These results suggest that global budgets with pay-for-performance can begin to slow underlying growth in medical spending while improving quality of care.

  6. A new method to estimate global mass transport and its implication for sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, S.; Heki, K.

    2017-12-01

    Estimates of changes in global land mass by using GRACE observations can be achieved by two methods, a mascon method and a forward modeling method. However, results from these two methods show inconsistent secular trend. Sea level budget can be adopted to validate the consistency among observations of sea level rise by altimetry, steric change by the Argo project, and mass change by GRACE. Mascon products from JPL, GSFC and CSR are compared here, we find that all these three products cannot achieve a reconciled sea level budget, while this problem can be solved by a new forward modeling method. We further investigate the origin of this difference, and speculate that it is caused by the signal leakage from the ocean mass. Generally, it is well recognized that land signals leak into oceans, but it also happens the other way around. We stress the importance of correction of leakage from the ocean in the estimation of global land masses. Based on a reconciled sea level budget, we confirmed that global sea level rise has been accelerating significantly over 2005-2015, as a result of the ongoing global temperature increase.

  7. Estimated Budget Impact of Increased Use of Mirabegron, A Novel Treatment for Overactive Bladder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perk, Sinem; Wielage, Ronald C; Campbell, Noll L; Klein, Timothy M; Perkins, Anthony; Posta, Linda M; Yuran, Thomas; Klein, Robert W; Ng, Daniel B

    2016-09-01

    Oral pharmacological treatment for overactive bladder (OAB) consists of antimuscarinics and the beta-3 adrenergic agonist mirabegron. Antimuscarinic adverse events (AEs) such as dry mouth, constipation, and blurry vision can result in frequent treatment discontinuation rates, leaving part of the OAB population untreated. Antimuscarinics also contribute to a patient's anticholinergic cognitive burden (ACB), so the Beers Criteria recommends cautious use of antimuscarinics in elderly patients who take multiple anticholinergic medications or have cognitive impairment. Since mirabegron does not affect the cholinergic pathways, it is unlikely to contribute to a patient's ACB. To estimate the health care costs associated with the pharmacological treatment of OAB with mirabegron and antimuscarinics from U.S. commercial payer and Medicare Advantage perspectives, using a budget impact model. For this budget impact model, 2 analyses were performed. The primary analysis estimated the budgetary impact of increasing the use of mirabegron in a closed patient cohort treated with oral pharmacological treatments. The secondary analysis modeled the economic impact in an open cohort by allowing untreated patients to begin treatment with mirabegron after potential contraindication, intolerance, or lack of effectiveness of antimuscarinics. The analyses were performed over a 3-year time horizon. The economic impact of increased mirabegron use was quantified using direct medical costs, including prescription costs and health resource utilization (HRU) costs. Costs of comorbidities included pharmacy and medical costs of treating OAB-related urinary tract infections (UTI), skin rashes, and depression. An analysis of a large single-site integrated health network database was commissioned to quantify ACB-related HRU in terms of the increases in yearly outpatient and emergency department visits. Based on this analysis, the model associated each unit increase in ACB score with increased HRU and

  8. A global algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. J. McDougall

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The International Thermodynamic Equation of Seawater – 2010 has defined the thermodynamic properties of seawater in terms of a new salinity variable, Absolute Salinity, which takes into account the spatial variation of the composition of seawater. Absolute Salinity more accurately reflects the effects of the dissolved material in seawater on the thermodynamic properties (particularly density than does Practical Salinity.

    When a seawater sample has standard composition (i.e. the ratios of the constituents of sea salt are the same as those of surface water of the North Atlantic, Practical Salinity can be used to accurately evaluate the thermodynamic properties of seawater. When seawater is not of standard composition, Practical Salinity alone is not sufficient and the Absolute Salinity Anomaly needs to be estimated; this anomaly is as large as 0.025 g kg−1 in the northernmost North Pacific. Here we provide an algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity Anomaly for any location (x, y, p in the world ocean.

    To develop this algorithm, we used the Absolute Salinity Anomaly that is found by comparing the density calculated from Practical Salinity to the density measured in the laboratory. These estimates of Absolute Salinity Anomaly however are limited to the number of available observations (namely 811. In order to provide a practical method that can be used at any location in the world ocean, we take advantage of approximate relationships between Absolute Salinity Anomaly and silicate concentrations (which are available globally.

  9. The groundwater budget: A tool for preliminary estimation of the hydraulic connection between neighboring aquifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viaroli, Stefano; Mastrorillo, Lucia; Lotti, Francesca; Paolucci, Vittorio; Mazza, Roberto

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater management authorities usually use groundwater budget calculations to evaluate the sustainability of withdrawals for different purposes. The groundwater budget calculation does not always provide reliable information, and it must often be supported by further aquifer monitoring in the case of hydraulic connections between neighboring aquifers. The Riardo Plain aquifer is a strategic drinking resource for more than 100,000 people, water storage for 60 km2 of irrigated land, and the source of a mineral water bottling plant. Over a long period, the comparison between the direct recharge and the estimated natural outflow and withdrawals highlights a severe water deficit of approximately 40% of the total groundwater outflow. A groundwater budget deficit should be a clue to the aquifer depletion, but the results of long-term water level monitoring allowed the observation of the good condition of this aquifer. In fact, in the Riardo Plain, the calculated deficit is not comparable to the aquifer monitoring data acquired in the same period (1992-2014). The small oscillations of the groundwater level and the almost stable streambed spring discharge allows the presumption of an additional aquifer recharge source. The confined carbonate aquifer locally mixes with the above volcanic aquifer, providing an externally stable recharge that reduces the effects of the local rainfall variability. The combined approach of the groundwater budget results and long-term aquifer monitoring (spring discharge and/or hydraulic head oscillation) provides information about significant external groundwater exchanges, even if unidentified by field measurements, and supports the stakeholders in groundwater resource management.

  10. Long-term global distribution of earth's shortwave radiation budget at the top of atmosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Hatzianastassiou

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The mean monthly shortwave (SW radiation budget at the top of atmosphere (TOA was computed on 2.5° longitude-latitude resolution for the 14-year period from 1984 to 1997, using a radiative transfer model with long-term climatological data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP-D2 supplemented by data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction – National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR Global Reanalysis project, and other global data bases such as TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS and Global Aerosol Data Set (GADS. The model radiative fluxes at TOA were validated against Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE S4 scanner satellite data (1985–1989. The model is able to predict the seasonal and geographical variation of SW TOA fluxes. On a mean annual and global basis, the model is in very good agreement with ERBE, overestimating the outgoing SW radiation at TOA (OSR by 0.93 Wm-2 (or by 0.92%, within the ERBE uncertainties. At pixel level, the OSR differences between model and ERBE are mostly within ±10 Wm-2, with ±5 Wm-2 over extended regions, while there exist some geographic areas with differences of up to 40 Wm-2, associated with uncertainties in cloud properties and surface albedo. The 14-year average model results give a planetary albedo equal to 29.6% and a TOA OSR flux of 101.2 Wm-2. A significant linearly decreasing trend in OSR and planetary albedo was found, equal to 2.3 Wm-2 and 0.6% (in absolute values, respectively, over the 14-year period (from January 1984 to December 1997, indicating an increasing solar planetary warming. This planetary SW radiative heating occurs in the tropical and sub-tropical areas (20° S–20° N, with clouds being the most likely cause. The computed global mean OSR anomaly ranges within ±4 Wm-2, with signals from El Niño and La Niña events or Pinatubo eruption, whereas significant negative OSR anomalies, starting from year 1992, are also

  11. The role of boreal forests and forestry in the global carbon budget : a synthesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fyles, I.H.; Shaw, C.H.; Apps, M.J.; Karjalainen, T.; Stocks, B.J.; Running, S.W.; Kurz, W.A.; Weyerhaeuser, G.Jr.; Jarvis, P.G.

    2002-10-01

    This paper provides a synthesis of all papers presented at the conference on the role of boreal forests in the global carbon budget. The scientific community is recognizing the critical links between boreal forest ecosystems, carbon dynamics and global climate change. This paper addresses the five main topics discussed at the conference including: (1) carbon stocks and fluxes, (2) the effects of natural disturbances on carbon dynamics, (3) effects of management practices on carbon dynamics, (4) afforestation and carbon sequestration, and (5) effects of climate change and elevated carbon dioxide concentration on carbon dynamics. Large-scale model simulations suggest that increased global temperatures will result in increased net ecosystem productivity (NEP). Several model simulations also indicate that net primary productivity (NPP) will increase. While most forest stands are currently carbon sinks, disturbances such as fire, insects and tree harvesting make forests susceptible to becoming a source of carbon. In contrast, some studies suggest that climate change will cause shifting vegetation patterns, increased soil carbon and higher forest productivity that may result in higher sequestration of carbon in the boreal forest. 84 refs.

  12. Evaluation of the reactive nitrogen budget of the remote atmosphere in global models using airborne measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, L. T.; Strode, S. A.; Fiore, A. M.; Lamarque, J. F.; Prather, M. J.; Thompson, C. R.; Peischl, J.; Ryerson, T. B.; Allen, H.; Blake, D. R.; Crounse, J. D.; Brune, W. H.; Elkins, J. W.; Hall, S. R.; Hintsa, E. J.; Huey, L. G.; Kim, M. J.; Moore, F. L.; Ullmann, K.; Wennberg, P. O.; Wofsy, S. C.

    2017-12-01

    Nitrogen oxides (NOx ≡ NO + NO2) in the background atmosphere are critical precursors for the formation of tropospheric ozone and OH, thereby exerting strong influence on surface air quality, reactive greenhouse gases, and ecosystem health. The impact of NOx on atmospheric composition and climate is sensitive to the relative partitioning of reactive nitrogen between NOx and longer-lived reservoir species of the total reactive nitrogen family (NOy) such as HNO3, HNO4, PAN and organic nitrates (RONO2). Unfortunately, global chemistry-climate models (CCMs) and chemistry-transport models (CTMs) have historically disagreed in their reactive nitrogen budgets outside of polluted continental regions, and we have lacked in situ observations with which to evaluate them. Here, we compare and evaluate the NOy budget of six global models (GEOS-Chem CTM, GFDL AM3 CCM, GISS E2.1 CCM, GMI CTM, NCAR CAM CCM, and UCI CTM) using new observations of total reactive nitrogen and its member species from the NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission. ATom has now completed two of its four planned deployments sampling the remote Pacific and Atlantic basins of both hemispheres with a comprehensive suite of measurements for constraining reactive photochemistry. All six models have simulated conditions climatologically similar to the deployments. The GMI and GEOS-Chem CTMs have in addition performed hindcast simulations using the MERRA-2 reanalysis, and have been sampled along the flight tracks. We evaluate the performance of the models relative to the observations, and identify factors contributing to their disparate behavior using known differences in model oxidation mechanisms, heterogeneous loss pathways, lightning and surface emissions, and physical loss processes.

  13. Estimating annual soil carbon loss in agricultural peatland soils using a nitrogen budget approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirk, Emilie R; van Kessel, Chris; Horwath, William R; Linquist, Bruce A

    2015-01-01

    Around the world, peatland degradation and soil subsidence is occurring where these soils have been converted to agriculture. Since initial drainage in the mid-1800s, continuous farming of such soils in the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (the Delta) has led to subsidence of up to 8 meters in places, primarily due to soil organic matter (SOM) oxidation and physical compaction. Rice (Oryza sativa) production has been proposed as an alternative cropping system to limit SOM oxidation. Preliminary research on these soils revealed high N uptake by rice in N fertilizer omission plots, which we hypothesized was the result of SOM oxidation releasing N. Testing this hypothesis, we developed a novel N budgeting approach to assess annual soil C and N loss based on plant N uptake and fallow season N mineralization. Through field experiments examining N dynamics during growing season and winter fallow periods, a complete annual N budget was developed. Soil C loss was calculated from SOM-N mineralization using the soil C:N ratio. Surface water and crop residue were negligible in the total N uptake budget (3 - 4 % combined). Shallow groundwater contributed 24 - 33 %, likely representing subsurface SOM-N mineralization. Assuming 6 and 25 kg N ha-1 from atmospheric deposition and biological N2 fixation, respectively, our results suggest 77 - 81 % of plant N uptake (129 - 149 kg N ha-1) was supplied by SOM mineralization. Considering a range of N uptake efficiency from 50 - 70 %, estimated net C loss ranged from 1149 - 2473 kg C ha-1. These findings suggest that rice systems, as currently managed, reduce the rate of C loss from organic delta soils relative to other agricultural practices.

  14. Estimating annual soil carbon loss in agricultural peatland soils using a nitrogen budget approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilie R Kirk

    Full Text Available Around the world, peatland degradation and soil subsidence is occurring where these soils have been converted to agriculture. Since initial drainage in the mid-1800s, continuous farming of such soils in the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (the Delta has led to subsidence of up to 8 meters in places, primarily due to soil organic matter (SOM oxidation and physical compaction. Rice (Oryza sativa production has been proposed as an alternative cropping system to limit SOM oxidation. Preliminary research on these soils revealed high N uptake by rice in N fertilizer omission plots, which we hypothesized was the result of SOM oxidation releasing N. Testing this hypothesis, we developed a novel N budgeting approach to assess annual soil C and N loss based on plant N uptake and fallow season N mineralization. Through field experiments examining N dynamics during growing season and winter fallow periods, a complete annual N budget was developed. Soil C loss was calculated from SOM-N mineralization using the soil C:N ratio. Surface water and crop residue were negligible in the total N uptake budget (3 - 4 % combined. Shallow groundwater contributed 24 - 33 %, likely representing subsurface SOM-N mineralization. Assuming 6 and 25 kg N ha-1 from atmospheric deposition and biological N2 fixation, respectively, our results suggest 77 - 81 % of plant N uptake (129 - 149 kg N ha-1 was supplied by SOM mineralization. Considering a range of N uptake efficiency from 50 - 70 %, estimated net C loss ranged from 1149 - 2473 kg C ha-1. These findings suggest that rice systems, as currently managed, reduce the rate of C loss from organic delta soils relative to other agricultural practices.

  15. Estimating regional-scale methane flux and budgets using CARVE aircraft measurements over Alaska

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Hartery

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Methane (CH4 is the second most important greenhouse gas but its emissions from northern regions are still poorly constrained. In this study, we analyze a subset of in situ CH4 aircraft observations made over Alaska during the growing seasons of 2012–2014 as part of the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE. Net surface CH4 fluxes are estimated using a Lagrangian particle dispersion model which quantitatively links surface emissions from Alaska and the western Yukon with observations of enhanced CH4 in the mixed layer. We estimate that between May and September, net CH4 emissions from the region of interest were 2.2 ± 0.5 Tg, 1.9 ± 0.4 Tg, and 2.3 ± 0.6 Tg of CH4 for 2012, 2013, and 2014, respectively. If emissions are only attributed to two biogenic eco-regions within our domain, then tundra regions were the predominant source, accounting for over half of the overall budget despite only representing 18 % of the total surface area. Boreal regions, which cover a large part of the study region, accounted for the remainder of the emissions. Simple multiple linear regression analysis revealed that, overall, CH4 fluxes were largely driven by soil temperature and elevation. In regions specifically dominated by wetlands, soil temperature and moisture at 10 cm depth were important explanatory variables while in regions that were not wetlands, soil temperature and moisture at 40 cm depth were more important, suggesting deeper methanogenesis in drier soils. Although similar environmental drivers have been found in the past to control CH4 emissions at local scales, this study shows that they can be used to generate a statistical model to estimate the regional-scale net CH4 budget.

  16. Estimating regional-scale methane flux and budgets using CARVE aircraft measurements over Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartery, Sean; Commane, Róisín; Lindaas, Jakob; Sweeney, Colm; Henderson, John; Mountain, Marikate; Steiner, Nicholas; McDonald, Kyle; Dinardo, Steven J.; Miller, Charles E.; Wofsy, Steven C.; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.

    2018-01-01

    Methane (CH4) is the second most important greenhouse gas but its emissions from northern regions are still poorly constrained. In this study, we analyze a subset of in situ CH4 aircraft observations made over Alaska during the growing seasons of 2012-2014 as part of the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE). Net surface CH4 fluxes are estimated using a Lagrangian particle dispersion model which quantitatively links surface emissions from Alaska and the western Yukon with observations of enhanced CH4 in the mixed layer. We estimate that between May and September, net CH4 emissions from the region of interest were 2.2 ± 0.5 Tg, 1.9 ± 0.4 Tg, and 2.3 ± 0.6 Tg of CH4 for 2012, 2013, and 2014, respectively. If emissions are only attributed to two biogenic eco-regions within our domain, then tundra regions were the predominant source, accounting for over half of the overall budget despite only representing 18 % of the total surface area. Boreal regions, which cover a large part of the study region, accounted for the remainder of the emissions. Simple multiple linear regression analysis revealed that, overall, CH4 fluxes were largely driven by soil temperature and elevation. In regions specifically dominated by wetlands, soil temperature and moisture at 10 cm depth were important explanatory variables while in regions that were not wetlands, soil temperature and moisture at 40 cm depth were more important, suggesting deeper methanogenesis in drier soils. Although similar environmental drivers have been found in the past to control CH4 emissions at local scales, this study shows that they can be used to generate a statistical model to estimate the regional-scale net CH4 budget.

  17. Development of Turbulent Diffusion Transfer Algorithms to Estimate Lake Tahoe Water Budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahoo, G. B.; Schladow, S. G.; Reuter, J. E.

    2012-12-01

    The evaporative loss is a dominant component in the Lake Tahoe hydrologic budget because watershed area (813km2) is very small compared to the lake surface area (501 km2). The 5.5 m high dam built at the lake's only outlet, the Truckee River at Tahoe City can increase the lake's capacity by approximately 0.9185 km3. The lake serves as a flood protection for downstream areas and source of water supply for downstream cities, irrigation, hydropower, and instream environmental requirements. When the lake water level falls below the natural rim, cessation of flows from the lake cause problems for water supply, irrigation, and fishing. Therefore, it is important to develop algorithms to correctly estimate the lake hydrologic budget. We developed a turbulent diffusion transfer model and coupled to the dynamic lake model (DLM-WQ). We generated the stream flows and pollutants loadings of the streams using the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) supported watershed model, Loading Simulation Program in C++ (LSPC). The bulk transfer coefficients were calibrated using correlation coefficient (R2) as the objective function. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for the meteorological inputs and model parameters. The DLM-WQ estimated lake water level and water temperatures were in agreement to those of measured records with R2 equal to 0.96 and 0.99, respectively for the period 1994 to 2008. The estimated average evaporation from the lake, stream inflow, precipitation over the lake, groundwater fluxes, and outflow from the lake during 1994 to 2008 were found to be 32.0%, 25.0%, 19.0%, 0.3%, and 11.7%, respectively.

  18. Satellite observations make it possible to estimate Poyang Lake’s water budget

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Lian; Chen Xiaoling; Hu, Chuanmin; Li Rongfang

    2011-01-01

    Using moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery with hydrologic and meteorological data, we developed a box model to estimate the water exchange between Poyang Lake (the largest freshwater lake of China) and the Changjiang (Yangtze) River from 2000 to 2009. Significant intra- and inter-annual variability of the water budget was found, with an annual mean outflow of Poyang Lake of 120.2 ± 31.2 billion m 3 during 2000–2009 and a declining trend of 5.7 billion m 3 yr −1 (p = 0.09). The impoundment of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) on the Changjiang River in June 2003 led to a rapid lake–river outflow of 760.6 million m 3 day −1 , resulting in a loss of 7864.5 million m 3 of water from the lake in a short period. Shortly thereafter, a statistically significant decrease in the drainage basin’s runoff coefficient was discovered. These findings provide large-scale evidence on how local precipitation and the TGD control the lake’s water budget, where continuous monitoring using the established approach and satellite data may provide critical information to help make water management decisions.

  19. Rough estimate demand of atomic energy-related budget for fiscal year 1996

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitagishi, Tatsuro

    1996-01-01

    The rough estimate demand of the budget for fiscal year 1996 of eight atomic energy-related ministries and agencies was determined at about 494,879 million yen, which is 2.4% growth as compared with that for the previous year. Concretely, the general account is 204,594 million yen, 2.2% growth, and the special account is 290,285 million yen, 2.6% growth. The budget is 357,060 million yen and 3.7% growth for Science and Technology Agency, 130, 787 million yen and 2% decrease for Ministry of International Trade and Industry, and 7,032 million yen and 29.2% increase for other six ministries and agencies. Emphasis is placed on the research of upgrading LWRs including the disassembling of reactors, the performance test for fuel, the improvement of reactor technology and the verifying test of practical reactor decommissioning facilities, and the research and development of advanced nuclear fuel cycle technology. Also the technical development of waste treatment and disposal including high level radioactive waste is carried out with 40.3 billion yen. Atomic Energy Commission exerts efforts for the development of atomic energy policy for the peaceful utilization, the establishment of coordinative LWR power generation system, the development of nuclear fuel recycling and the strengthening of the basic research on atomic energy. (K.I.)

  20. The Fiscal Year 1999 Outlay Estimate Difference Between the Department of Defense and the Congressional Budget Office

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Baker, Robert

    1999-01-01

    ...) estimated DoD FY 99 outlays to be $3.7 billion higher than estimates submitted by DoD, which would have caused DoD spending to exceed FY 99 defense spending targets established in the 1997 Balanced Budget Act (BBA...

  1. Global Estimated Net Migration Grids by Decade: 1970-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Estimated Net Migration by Decade: 1970-2000 data set provides estimates of net migration over the three decades from 1970 to 2000. Because of the lack of...

  2. Global model simulations of the impact of ocean-going ships on aerosols, clouds, and the radiation budget

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Lauer

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available International shipping contributes significantly to the fuel consumption of all transport related activities. Specific emissions of pollutants such as sulfur dioxide (SO2 per kg of fuel emitted are higher than for road transport or aviation. Besides gaseous pollutants, ships also emit various types of particulate matter. The aerosol impacts the Earth's radiation budget directly by scattering and absorbing the solar and thermal radiation and indirectly by changing cloud properties. Here we use ECHAM5/MESSy1-MADE, a global climate model with detailed aerosol and cloud microphysics to study the climate impacts of international shipping. The simulations show that emissions from ships significantly increase the cloud droplet number concentration of low marine water clouds by up to 5% to 30% depending on the ship emission inventory and the geographic region. Whereas the cloud liquid water content remains nearly unchanged in these simulations, effective radii of cloud droplets decrease, leading to cloud optical thickness increase of up to 5–10%. The sensitivity of the results is estimated by using three different emission inventories for present-day conditions. The sensitivity analysis reveals that shipping contributes to 2.3% to 3.6% of the total sulfate burden and 0.4% to 1.4% to the total black carbon burden in the year 2000 on the global mean. In addition to changes in aerosol chemical composition, shipping increases the aerosol number concentration, e.g. up to 25% in the size range of the accumulation mode (typically >0.1 μm over the Atlantic. The total aerosol optical thickness over the Indian Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Northeastern Pacific increases by up to 8–10% depending on the emission inventory. Changes in aerosol optical thickness caused by shipping induced modification of aerosol particle number concentration and chemical composition lead to a change in the shortwave radiation budget at the top of the

  3. Effects of aerosol from biomass burning on the global radiation budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penner, Joyce E.; Dickinson, Robert E.; O'Neill, Christine A.

    1992-01-01

    An analysis is made of the likely contribution of smoke particles from biomass burning to the global radiation balance. These particles act to reflect solar radiation directly; they also can act as cloud condensation nuclei, increasing the reflectivity of clouds. Together these effects, although uncertain, may add up globally to a cooling effect as large as 2 watts per square meter, comparable to the estimated contribution to sulfate aerosols. Anthropogenic increases of smoke emission thus may have helped weaken the net greenhouse warming from anthropogenic trace gases.

  4. Estimating 40 years of nitrogen deposition in global biomes using the SCIAMACHY NO2 column

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xuehe; Zhang, Xiuying; Liu, Jinxun; Jin, Jiaxin

    2016-01-01

    Owing to human activity, global nitrogen (N) cycles have been altered. In the past 100 years, global N deposition has increased. Currently, the monitoring and estimating of N deposition and the evaluation of its effects on global carbon budgets are the focus of many researchers. NO2 columns retrieved by space-borne sensors provide us with a new way of exploring global N cycles and these have the ability to estimate N deposition. However, the time range limitation of NO2 columns makes the estimation of long timescale N deposition difficult. In this study we used ground-based NOx emission data to expand the density of NO2columns, and 40 years of N deposition (1970–2009) was inverted using the multivariate linear model with expanded NO2 columns. The dynamic of N deposition was examined in both global and biome scales. The results show that the average N deposition was 0.34 g N m–2 year–1 in the 2000s, which was an increase of 38.4% compared with the 1970s’. The total N deposition in different biomes is unbalanced. N deposition is only 38.0% of the global total in forest biomes; this is made up of 25.9%, 11.3, and 0.7% in tropical, temperate, and boreal forests, respectively. As N-limited biomes, there was little increase of N deposition in boreal forests. However, N deposition has increased by a total of 59.6% in tropical forests and croplands, which are N-rich biomes. Such characteristics may influence the effects on global carbon budgets.

  5. Uranium isotopic compositions of the crust and ocean: Age corrections, U budget and global extent of modern anoxia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tissot, François L. H.; Dauphas, Nicolas

    2015-10-01

    , 2014). The riverine input (40-46 Mmol/yr) is balanced by several sinks; including suboxic sediments, anoxic/euxinic sediments, carbonates, altered oceanic crust, salt marshes and Fe-Mn nodules. Barnes and Cochran (1990), Morford and Emerson (1999), Dunk et al. (2002), and Henderson and Anderson (2003) each proposed estimates for the oceanic uranium budget that differ substantially in the fluxes that they use. Uranium isotopes are sensitive to ocean redox conditions because uranium removal in anoxic/euxinic sediments imparts large uranium isotopic fractionation, so that the areal extent of this sink influences greatly the U isotopic composition of seawater relative to the riverine input. In the present paper, we report double-spike uranium isotopic measurements of 18 seawater samples, 18 continental crust lithologies, 7 individual minerals, 6 oyster samples, 3 modern evaporites samples, 2 lake water samples, 1 large river water sample and 1 coral sample. These measurements are supplemented by compilations of literature data. With this large data set (n = 444), we are able to constrain the flux of uranium into anoxic/euxinic sediments, as well as the global extent of anoxia in the modern ocean (percent of seafloor covered by anoxic/euxinic sediments). Our findings compare well with independent estimates and rule out the most recent U budget of Henderson and Anderson (2003).As part of our effort, we also present a data reduction method for double-spike measurements that is both comprehensive in the way the errors are propagated and simple to implement.

  6. Influence of Ice Cloud Microphysics on Imager-Based Estimates of Earth's Radiation Budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loeb, N. G.; Kato, S.; Minnis, P.; Yang, P.; Sun-Mack, S.; Rose, F. G.; Hong, G.; Ham, S. H.

    2016-12-01

    A central objective of the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) is to produce a long-term global climate data record of Earth's radiation budget from the TOA down to the surface along with the associated atmospheric and surface properties that influence it. CERES relies on a number of data sources, including broadband radiometers measuring incoming and reflected solar radiation and OLR, high-resolution spectral imagers, meteorological, aerosol and ozone assimilation data, and snow/sea-ice maps based on microwave radiometer data. While the TOA radiation budget is largely determined directly from accurate broadband radiometer measurements, the surface radiation budget is derived indirectly through radiative transfer model calculations initialized using imager-based cloud and aerosol retrievals and meteorological assimilation data. Because ice cloud particles exhibit a wide range of shapes, sizes and habits that cannot be independently retrieved a priori from passive visible/infrared imager measurements, assumptions about the scattering properties of ice clouds are necessary in order to retrieve ice cloud optical properties (e.g., optical depth) from imager radiances and to compute broadband radiative fluxes. This presentation will examine how the choice of an ice cloud particle model impacts computed shortwave (SW) radiative fluxes at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and surface. The ice cloud particle models considered correspond to those from prior, current and future CERES data product versions. During the CERES Edition2 (and Edition3) processing, ice cloud particles were assumed to be smooth hexagonal columns. In the Edition4, roughened hexagonal columns are assumed. The CERES team is now working on implementing in a future version an ice cloud particle model comprised of a two-habit ice cloud model consisting of roughened hexagonal columns and aggregates of roughened columnar elements. In each case, we use the same ice particle model in both the

  7. Global Warming Estimation From Microwave Sounding Unit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Dalu, G.

    1998-01-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 data sets, collected from sequential, polar-orbiting, Sun-synchronous National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration operational satellites, contain systematic calibration errors that are coupled to the diurnal temperature cycle over the globe. Since these coupled errors in MSU data differ between successive satellites, it is necessary to make compensatory adjustments to these multisatellite data sets in order to determine long-term global temperature change. With the aid of the observations during overlapping periods of successive satellites, we can determine such adjustments and use them to account for the coupled errors in the long-term time series of MSU Ch 2 global temperature. In turn, these adjusted MSU Ch 2 data sets can be used to yield global temperature trend. In a pioneering study, Spencer and Christy (SC) (1990) developed a procedure to derive the global temperature trend from MSU Ch 2 data. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedure, the magnitude of the coupled errors is not determined explicitly. Furthermore, based on some assumptions, these coupled errors are eliminated in three separate steps. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedures. Based on our analysis, we find there is a global warming of 0.23+/-0.12 K between 1980 and 1991. Also, in this study, the time series of global temperature anomalies constructed by removing the global mean annual temperature cycle compares favorably with a similar

  8. Estimation of the global regularity of a multifractional Brownian motion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lebovits, Joachim; Podolskij, Mark

    This paper presents a new estimator of the global regularity index of a multifractional Brownian motion. Our estimation method is based upon a ratio statistic, which compares the realized global quadratic variation of a multifractional Brownian motion at two different frequencies. We show that a ...... that a logarithmic transformation of this statistic converges in probability to the minimum of the Hurst functional parameter, which is, under weak assumptions, identical to the global regularity index of the path....

  9. Agency problems in hospitals participating in self-management project under global budget system in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Yu-Hua; Hsu, Shuofen; Yang, Chen-Wei; Fang, Shih-Chieh

    2010-02-01

    The main purposes of this study are to clarify the agency problems in the hospitals participating in self-management project within the context of Global Budgeting Payment System regulated by Taiwan government, and also to provide some suggestions for hospital administrator and health policy maker in reducing the waste of healthcare resources resulting from agency problems. For the purposes above, this study examines the relationships between two agency problems (ex ante moral hazard and ex post moral hazard) aroused among the hospitals and Bureau of National Health Insurance in Taiwan's health care sector. This study empirically tested the theoretical model at organization level. The findings suggest that the hospital's ex ante moral hazards before participating the self-management project do have some influence on its ex post moral hazards after participating the self-management project. This study concludes that the goal conflict between the agents and the principal certainly exist. The principal tries hard to control the expenditure escalation and keep the financial balance, but the agents have to subsist within limited healthcare resources. Therefore, the agency cost would definitely occur due to the conflicts between both parties. According to the results of the research, some suggestions and related management concepts were proposed at the end of the paper.

  10. Agency problems of global budget system in Taiwan's National Health Insurance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Yu-Hua; Yang, Chen-Wei; Fang, Shih-Chieh

    2014-05-01

    The main purpose of this study was to investigate the agency problem presented by the global budget system followed by hospitals in Taiwan. In this study, we examine empirically the interaction between the principal: Bureau of National Health Insurance (BNHI) and agency: medical service providers (hospitals); we also describe actual medical service provider and hospital governance conditions from a agency theory perspective. This study identified a positive correlation between aversion to agency hazard (self-interest behavior, asymmetric information, and risk hedging) and agency problem risks (disregard of medical ethics, pursuit of extra-contract profit, disregard of professionalism, and cost orientation). Agency costs refer to BNHI auditing and monitoring expenditures used to prevent hospitals from deviating from NHI policy goals. This study also found agency costs negatively moderate the relationship between agency hazards and agency problems The main contribution of this study is its use of agency theory to clarify agency problems and several potential factors caused by the NHI system. This study also contributes to the field of health policy study by clarifying the nature and importance of agency problems in the health care sector. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Estimating the Cross-Shelf Export of Riverine Materials: Part 2. Estimates of Global Freshwater and Nutrient Export

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izett, Jonathan G.; Fennel, Katja

    2018-02-01

    Rivers deliver large amounts of fresh water, nutrients, and other terrestrially derived materials to the coastal ocean. Where inputs accumulate on the shelf, harmful effects such as hypoxia and eutrophication can result. In contrast, where export to the open ocean is efficient riverine inputs contribute to global biogeochemical budgets. Assessing the fate of riverine inputs is difficult on a global scale. Global ocean models are generally too coarse to resolve the relatively small scale features of river plumes. High-resolution regional models have been developed for individual river plume systems, but it is impractical to apply this approach globally to all rivers. Recently, generalized parameterizations have been proposed to estimate the export of riverine fresh water to the open ocean (Izett & Fennel, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GB005667; Sharples et al., 2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005483). Here the relationships of Izett and Fennel, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GB005667 are used to derive global estimates of open-ocean export of fresh water and dissolved inorganic silicate, dissolved organic carbon, and dissolved organic and inorganic phosphorus and nitrogen. We estimate that only 15-53% of riverine fresh water reaches the open ocean directly in river plumes; nutrient export is even less efficient because of processing on continental shelves. Due to geographic differences in riverine nutrient delivery, dissolved silicate is the most efficiently exported to the open ocean (7-56.7%), while dissolved inorganic nitrogen is the least efficiently exported (2.8-44.3%). These results are consistent with previous estimates and provide a simple way to parameterize export to the open ocean in global models.

  12. Global atmospheric budget of acetaldehyde: 3-D model analysis and constraints from in-situ and satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. B. Millet

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available We construct a global atmospheric budget for acetaldehyde using a 3-D model of atmospheric chemistry (GEOS-Chem, and use an ensemble of observations to evaluate present understanding of its sources and sinks. Hydrocarbon oxidation provides the largest acetaldehyde source in the model (128 Tg a−1, a factor of 4 greater than the previous estimate, with alkanes, alkenes, and ethanol the main precursors. There is also a minor source from isoprene oxidation. We use an updated chemical mechanism for GEOS-Chem, and photochemical acetaldehyde yields are consistent with the Master Chemical Mechanism. We present a new approach to quantifying the acetaldehyde air-sea flux based on the global distribution of light absorption due to colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM derived from satellite ocean color observations. The resulting net ocean emission is 57 Tg a−1, the second largest global source of acetaldehyde. A key uncertainty is the acetaldehyde turnover time in the ocean mixed layer, with quantitative model evaluation over the ocean complicated by known measurement artifacts in clean air. Simulated concentrations in surface air over the ocean generally agree well with aircraft measurements, though the model tends to overestimate the vertical gradient. PAN:NOx ratios are well-simulated in the marine boundary layer, providing some support for the modeled ocean source. We introduce the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGANv2.1 for acetaldehyde and ethanol and use it to quantify their net flux from living terrestrial plants. Including emissions from decaying plants the total direct acetaldehyde source from the land biosphere is 23 Tg a−1. Other terrestrial acetaldehyde sources include biomass burning (3 Tg a−1 and anthropogenic emissions (2 Tg a−1. Simulated concentrations in the continental boundary layer are generally unbiased and capture the spatial

  13. Estimating the budget impact of orphan medicines in Europe: 2010 - 2020

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milanova Tsveta

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Orphan drugs are a growing issue of importance to European healthcare policy makers. The success of orphan drug legislation in Europe has resulted in an increasing number of licensed medicines for rare diseases, and many more yet unlicensed products have received orphan drug designation. Increasingly the concerns amongst policy makers relate to issues of patient access and affordability, yet few studies have sought to estimate the future budget impact of orphan drugs. The aim of this study was to predict the total cost of orphan medicines in Europe between 2010 and 2020 as a percentage of total European pharmaceutical expenditure. Methods A disease-based epidemiological model was created based upon trends in the designation and approval of new orphan medicines, prevalence estimates for orphan diseases, and historical price and sales data for orphan drugs in Europe (defined as Eurozone + UK. The analysis incorporated two stages: 1 Predicting the number of diseases for which new orphan drugs will be approved over the next decade, based on an analysis of trends from the EU registry of orphan medicines; 2 Estimating the average ex-factory drug cost across an orphan disease life cycle, from the year in which the first orphan medicine is launched to the point where the first medicine loses marketing exclusivity. The two sets of information were combined to quantify the annual cost of orphan drugs from 2010 through 2020. Results The results from the model predicted a steady increase in the cumulative number of diseases for which an orphan drug is approved, averaging just over 5 new diseases per year over the next 10 years. The annual per patient cost of existing orphan drugs was seen to vary between €1,251 and €407,631, with the median cost being €32,242 per year. The share of the total pharmaceutical market represented by orphan drugs is predicted to increase from 3.3% in 2010 to a peak of 4.6% in 2016 after which it is

  14. Constraining the carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) budget using its global trend and inter-hemispheric gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Qing; Newman, Paul A.; Daniel, John S.; Reimann, Stefan; Hall, Bradley D.; Dutton, Geoff; Kuijpers, Lambert J. M.

    2014-07-01

    Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) is a major anthropogenic ozone-depleting substance and greenhouse gas and has been regulated under the Montreal Protocol. However, the near-zero 2007-2012 emissions estimate based on the UNEP reported production and feedstock usage cannot be reconciled with the observed slow decline of atmospheric concentrations and the inter-hemispheric gradient (IHG) for CCl4. Our 3-D model simulations suggest that the observed IHG (1.5 ± 0.2 ppt for 2000-2012) is primarily caused by ongoing current emissions, while ocean and soil losses and stratosphere-troposphere exchange together contribute a small negative gradient (~0 - -0.3 ppt). Using the observed CCl4 global trend and IHG, we deduce that the mean global emissions for the 2000-2012 period are 393445 Gg/yr (~30% of the peak 1980s emissions) and a corresponding total lifetime of 353732 years.

  15. Rethinking CCD's Significance in Estimating Late Neogene Whole Ocean Carbonate Budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Si, W.; Rosenthal, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The global averaged calcite compensation depth (CCD) record is conventionally used to reconstruct two correlatable parameters of the carbonate system - the alkalinity budget of the ocean and/or the saturation state of the ocean. Accordingly, the available CCD reconstructions have been interpreted to suggest either relative stable (Pearson and Palmer, 2000) or increased alkalinity of the ocean over the past 15 Ma (Tyrrell and Zeebe, 2004; Pälike et al., 2012). However, CCD alone is insufficient to constrain the carbonate system because the weathering flux of alkalinity into the ocean is not only balanced by CaCO3 dissolution on the seafloor but also by the biologic production in the euphotic zone and, the CCD records cannot be readily interpreted as changes in either process. Here, we present evidence of the co-evolution of surface CaCO3 production and deepsea dissolution through the late Neogene. By examining separately the mass accumulation rates (MAR) of coccoliths, planktonic foraminifera, and quantifying dissolution (using a proxy revised from Broecker et al., 1999) in seventeen deepsea cores from multiple depth-transects, we find that 1) MAR of dissolution-resistant coccoliths was substantially higher in the mid Miocene and declining on a global scale towards the present; 2) unlike coccoliths, MAR of planktonic foraminifera, shows no apparent secular trend through that time; 3) the revised dissolution index, shows significantly improved preservation of planktonic foraminiferal shells over that time, particularly at intermediate water depth and exhibits close association between changes in preservation with key climatic events. Our new records have two immediate implications. First, the substantially weakened pelagic biogenic carbonate production from mid Miocene to present alone could account for the improved preservation of deepsea carbonates without calling for a scenario of increased weathering input. Second, with the constrain of global averaged CCD

  16. Reduced biomass burning emissions reconcile conflicting estimates of the post-2006 atmospheric methane budget.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worden, John R; Bloom, A Anthony; Pandey, Sudhanshu; Jiang, Zhe; Worden, Helen M; Walker, Thomas W; Houweling, Sander; Röckmann, Thomas

    2017-12-20

    Several viable but conflicting explanations have been proposed to explain the recent ~8 p.p.b. per year increase in atmospheric methane after 2006, equivalent to net emissions increase of ~25 Tg CH 4 per year. A concurrent increase in atmospheric ethane implicates a fossil source; a concurrent decrease in the heavy isotope content of methane points toward a biogenic source, while other studies propose a decrease in the chemical sink (OH). Here we show that biomass burning emissions of methane decreased by 3.7 (±1.4) Tg CH 4 per year from the 2001-2007 to the 2008-2014 time periods using satellite measurements of CO and CH 4 , nearly twice the decrease expected from prior estimates. After updating both the total and isotopic budgets for atmospheric methane with these revised biomass burning emissions (and assuming no change to the chemical sink), we find that fossil fuels contribute between 12-19 Tg CH 4 per year to the recent atmospheric methane increase, thus reconciling the isotopic- and ethane-based results.

  17. Estimated hydrologic budgets of kettle-hole ponds in coastal aquifers of southeastern Massachusetts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, Donald A.; Masterson, John P.

    2011-01-01

    Kettle-hole ponds in southeastern Massachusetts are in good hydraulic connection to an extensive coastal aquifer system that includes the Plymouth-Carver aquifer system on the mainland and aquifers underlying Cape Cod. The ponds receive water from, and contribute water to, the underlying glacial aquifer; ponds also receive water from precipitation and lose water to evaporation from the pond surface. Some ponds are connected to surface-water drainage systems and receive water from or contribute water to streams or adjacent wetlands. The Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection currently (2011) is developing Total Maximum Daily Loads of phosphorus for the freshwater ponds in the region to maintain the health of pond ecosystems; the amounts and sources of water fluxes into and out of the ponds are important factors in determining the amount of phosphorus that can be assimilated into a pond. To assist in this effort, the U.S. Geological Survey used groundwater-flow models of the coastal aquifer system to estimate hydrologic budgets-including inflows and outflows from the aquifer system and adjacent streams and wetlands, and recharge from precipitation-for 425 ponds in southeastern Massachusetts.

  18. Contribution of vehicle exhaust to the global N2O budget

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, K.H.; Loerzer, J.C.; Kurtenbach, R.; Wiesen, P.; Jensen, T.E.; Wallington, T.J.

    2000-01-01

    Assessment of the impact of vehicle emissions on the global environment requires accurate data concerning nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions. We report herein 'real world' N 2 O emissions from road vehicles in a tunnel in Wuppertal, Germany, together with 'laboratory' emission measurements conducted at the Ford Motor Company using a chassis dynamometer with a standard driving cycle for 26 different cars and trucks. Consistent results were obtained from both approaches suggesting that a good approximation of the average emission factor (g N 2 O/g CO 2 )=(4±2) x 10 -5 . This corresponds to an emission rate of 11-5 mg N 2 O/km for vehicles with fuel economies of 12-6 1/100 km (20-40 miles/US gallon). N 2 O emissions from vehicles have a global warming impact, which is 1-2% of that of the CO 2 emissions from vehicles. We estimate an annual emission of (0.12±0.06) Tg yr -1 of N 2 O (0.08±0.04 Tg N yr -1 ) from the global vehicle fleet which represents 1-4% of the atmospheric growth rate of this species. These results update and supersede our previous study of N 2 O emissions from vehicles. (author)

  19. Illegal markets: Estimates of global proceeds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinković Darko M.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Illegal markets represent a phenomenon of considerable economic, political and social significance whose annual income exceeds the value of a thousand billion USD. Illegal market participants are beyond the reach of government institutions and rule of law while social connections and personal acquaintances play an important role of functional substitute. In the last decade there was a significant increase of illegal trafficking of narcotics, people, fire arms, counterfeit products and natural resources. Both selling and purchase of these as well as other kinds of products and services at illegal markets are generally characterized by high level of organization and presence of strong criminal groups and networks. Although these activities existed in the past their present scope and geographic distribution are without precedent. Measuring unlawful financial flows at illegal markets represents quite a complex task. Various estimates are the result of inexistence of uniform and generally accepted methodology. In addition to this, the special problem is also the consensus of market actors, because of which the phenomenon of illegal markets and distribution of products and services at these markets is rather hidden. The paper defines and analyzes the key features of illegal markets, the role of organized crime at illegal markets, as well as the estimates of the values of financial flows at the markets of counterfeit products, narcotics, and people as goods, or human organs and sexual services, weapons, tobacco products and dirty money.

  20. Global biodiversity loss: Exaggerated versus realistic estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John C. Briggs

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available For the past 50 years, the public has been made to feel guilty about the tragedy of human-caused biodiversity loss due to the extinction of hundreds or thousands of species every year. Numerous articles and books from the scientific and popular press and publicity on the internet have contributed to a propaganda wave about our grievous loss and the beginning of a sixth mass extinction. However, within the past few years, questions have arisen about the validity of the data which led to the doom scenario. Here I show that, for the past 500 years, terrestrial animals (insects and vertebrates have been losing less than two species per year due to human causes. The majority of the extinctions have occurred on oceanic islands with little effect on continental ecology. In the marine environment, losses have also been very low. At the same time, speciation has continued to occur and biodiversity gain by this means may have equaled or even surpassed the losses. While species loss is not, so far, a global conservation problem, ongoing population declines within thousands of species that are at risk on land and in the sea constitute an extinction debt that will be paid unless those species can be rescued.

  1. Impact of a financial risk-sharing scheme on budget-impact estimations: a game-theoretic approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavious, Arieh; Greenberg, Dan; Hammerman, Ariel; Segev, Ella

    2014-06-01

    As part of the process of updating the National List of Health Services in Israel, health plans (the 'payers') and manufacturers each provide estimates on the expected number of patients that will utilize a new drug. Currently, payers face major financial consequences when actual utilization is higher than the allocated budget. We suggest a risk-sharing model between the two stakeholders; if the actual number of patients exceeds the manufacturer's prediction, the manufacturer will reimburse the payers by a rebate rate of α from the deficit. In case of under-utilization, payers will refund the government at a rate of γ from the surplus budget. Our study objective was to identify the optimal early estimations of both 'players' prior to and after implementation of the risk-sharing scheme. Using a game-theoretic approach, in which both players' statements are considered simultaneously, we examined the impact of risk-sharing within a given range of rebate proportions, on players' early budget estimations. When increasing manufacturer's rebate α to be over 50 %, then manufacturers will announce a larger number, and health plans will announce a lower number of patients than they would without risk sharing, thus substantially decreasing the gap between their estimates. Increasing γ changes players' estimates only slightly. In reaction to applying a substantial risk-sharing rebate α on the manufacturer, both players are expected to adjust their budget estimates toward an optimal equilibrium. Increasing α is a better vehicle for reaching the desired equilibrium rather than increasing γ, as the manufacturer's rebate α substantially influences both players, whereas γ has little effect on the players behavior.

  2. Isocyanic acid in a global chemistry transport model: Tropospheric distribution, budget, and identification of regions with potential health impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Paul. J.; Emmons, Louisa K.; Roberts, James M.; Lamarque, Jean-FrançOis; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Veres, Patrick; Vandenboer, Trevor C.

    2012-05-01

    This study uses a global chemical transport model to estimate the distribution of isocyanic acid (HNCO). HNCO is toxic, and concentrations exceeding 1 ppbv have been suggested to have negative health effects. Based on fire studies, HNCO emissions were scaled to those of hydrogen cyanide (30%), resulting in yearly total emissions of 1.5 Tg for 2008, from both anthropogenic and biomass burning sources. Loss processes included heterogeneous uptake (pH dependent), dry deposition (like formic acid), and reaction with the OH radical (k = 1 × 10-15 molecule-1 cm3 s-1). Annual mean surface HNCO concentrations were highest over parts of China (maximum of 470 pptv), but episodic fire emissions gave much higher levels, exceeding 4 ppbv in tropical Africa and the Amazon, and exceeding 10 ppbv in Southeast Asia and Siberia. This suggests that large biomass burning events could result in deleterious health effects for populations in these regions. For the tropospheric budget, using the model-calculated pH the HNCO lifetime was 37 days, with the split between dry deposition and heterogeneous loss being 95%:5%. Fixing the heterogeneous loss rate at pH = 7 meant that this process dominated, accounting for ˜70% of the total loss, giving a lifetime of 6 days, and resulting in upper tropospheric concentrations that were essentially zero. However, changing the pH does not notably impact the high concentrations found in biomass burning regions. More observational data is needed to evaluate the model, as well as a better representation of the likely underestimated biofuel emissions, which could mean more populations exposed to elevated HNCO concentrations.

  3. WHO Initiative to Estimate the Global Burden of Foodborne Diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havelaar, Arie H.; Cawthorne, Amy; Angulo, Fred

    2013-01-01

    BackgroundThe public health impact of foodborne diseases globally is unknown. The WHO Initiative to Estimate the Global Burden of Foodborne Diseases was launched out of the need to fill this data gap. It is anticipated that this effort will enable policy makers and other stakeholders to set...... appropriate, evidence-informed priorities in the area of food safety. MethodsThe Initiative aims to provide estimates on the global burden of foodborne diseases by age, sex, and region; strengthen country capacity for conducting burden of foodborne disease assessments in parallel with food safety policy...

  4. Impact of climate change on tropospheric ozone and its global budgets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Zeng

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available We present the chemistry-climate model UMCAM in which a relatively detailed tropospheric chemical module has been incorporated into the UK Met Office's Unified Model version 4.5. We obtain good agreements between the modelled ozone/nitrogen species and a range of observations including surface ozone measurements, ozone sonde data, and some aircraft campaigns.

    Four 2100 calculations assess model responses to projected changes of anthropogenic emissions (SRES A2, climate change (due to doubling CO2, and idealised climate change-associated changes in biogenic emissions (i.e. 50% increase of isoprene emission and doubling emissions of soil-NOx. The global tropospheric ozone burden increases significantly for all the 2100 A2 simulations, with the largest response caused by the increase of anthropogenic emissions. Climate change has diverse impacts on O3 and its budgets through changes in circulation and meteorological variables. Increased water vapour causes a substantial ozone reduction especially in the tropical lower troposphere (>10 ppbv reduction over the tropical ocean. On the other hand, an enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchange of ozone, which increases by 80% due to doubling CO2, contributes to ozone increases in the extratropical free troposphere which subsequently propagate to the surface. Projected higher temperatures favour ozone chemical production and PAN decomposition which lead to high surface ozone levels in certain regions. Enhanced convection transports ozone precursors more rapidly out of the boundary layer resulting in an increase of ozone production in the free troposphere. Lightning-produced NOx increases by about 22% in the doubled CO2 climate and contributes to ozone production.

    The response to the increase of isoprene emissions shows that the change of ozone is largely determined by background NOx levels: high

  5. User's guide: Nimbus-7 Earth radiation budget narrow-field-of-view products. Scene radiance tape products, sorting into angular bins products, and maximum likelihood cloud estimation products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyle, H. Lee; Hucek, Richard R.; Groveman, Brian; Frey, Richard

    1990-01-01

    The archived Earth radiation budget (ERB) products produced from the Nimbus-7 ERB narrow field-of-view scanner are described. The principal products are broadband outgoing longwave radiation (4.5 to 50 microns), reflected solar radiation (0.2 to 4.8 microns), and the net radiation. Daily and monthly averages are presented on a fixed global equal area (500 sq km), grid for the period May 1979 to May 1980. Two independent algorithms are used to estimate the outgoing fluxes from the observed radiances. The algorithms are described and the results compared. The products are divided into three subsets: the Scene Radiance Tapes (SRT) contain the calibrated radiances; the Sorting into Angular Bins (SAB) tape contains the SAB produced shortwave, longwave, and net radiation products; and the Maximum Likelihood Cloud Estimation (MLCE) tapes contain the MLCE products. The tape formats are described in detail.

  6. Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) Data Sets for Global Environment and Climate Change Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bess, T. Dale; Carlson, Ann B.; Denn, Fredrick M.

    1997-01-01

    For a number of years there has been considerable interest in the earth's radiation budget (ERB) or energy balance, and entails making the best measurements possible of absorbed solar radiation, reflected shortwave radiation (RSW), thermal outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and net radiation. ERB data are fundamental to the development of realistic climate models and studying natural and anthropogenic perturbations of the climate. Much of the interest and investigations in the earth's energy balance predated the age of earth-orbiting satellites (Hunt et al., 1986). Beginning in the mid 1960's earth-orbiting satellites began to play an important role in making measurements of the earth's radiation flux although much effort had gone into measuring ERB parameters prior to 1960 (House et al., 1986). Beginning in 1974 and extending until the present time, three different satellite experiments (not all operating at the same time) have been making radiation budget measurements almost continually in time. Two of the experiments were totally dedicated to making radiation budget measurements of the earth, and the other experiment flown on NOAA sun-synchronous AVHRR weather satellites produced radiation budget parameters as a by-product. The heat budget data from the AVHRR satellites began collecting data in June 1974 and have operated almost continuously for 23 years producing valuable data for long term climate monitoring.

  7. Estimating the global incidence of traumatic spinal cord injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzharris, M; Cripps, R A; Lee, B B

    2014-02-01

    Population modelling--forecasting. To estimate the global incidence of traumatic spinal cord injury (TSCI). An initiative of the International Spinal Cord Society (ISCoS) Prevention Committee. Regression techniques were used to derive regional and global estimates of TSCI incidence. Using the findings of 31 published studies, a regression model was fitted using a known number of TSCI cases as the dependent variable and the population at risk as the single independent variable. In the process of deriving TSCI incidence, an alternative TSCI model was specified in an attempt to arrive at an optimal way of estimating the global incidence of TSCI. The global incidence of TSCI was estimated to be 23 cases per 1,000,000 persons in 2007 (179,312 cases per annum). World Health Organization's regional results are provided. Understanding the incidence of TSCI is important for health service planning and for the determination of injury prevention priorities. In the absence of high-quality epidemiological studies of TSCI in each country, the estimation of TSCI obtained through population modelling can be used to overcome known deficits in global spinal cord injury (SCI) data. The incidence of TSCI is context specific, and an alternative regression model demonstrated how TSCI incidence estimates could be improved with additional data. The results highlight the need for data standardisation and comprehensive reporting of national level TSCI data. A step-wise approach from the collation of conventional epidemiological data through to population modelling is suggested.

  8. Global budget of tropospheric ozone: Evaluating recent model advances with satellite (OMI), aircraft (IAGOS), and ozonesonde observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Lu; Jacob, Daniel J.; Liu, Xiong; Zhang, Yi; Zhang, Lin; Kim, Patrick S.; Sulprizio, Melissa P.; Yantosca, Robert M.

    2017-10-01

    The global budget of tropospheric ozone is governed by a complicated ensemble of coupled chemical and dynamical processes. Simulation of tropospheric ozone has been a major focus of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM) over the past 20 years, and many developments over the years have affected the model representation of the ozone budget. Here we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the standard version of GEOS-Chem (v10-01) with ozone observations from ozonesondes, the OMI satellite instrument, and MOZAIC-IAGOS commercial aircraft for 2012-2013. Global validation of the OMI 700-400 hPa data with ozonesondes shows that OMI maintained persistent high quality and no significant drift over the 2006-2013 period. GEOS-Chem shows no significant seasonal or latitudinal bias relative to OMI and strong correlations in all seasons on the 2° × 2.5° horizontal scale (r = 0.88-0.95), improving on previous model versions. The most pronounced model bias revealed by ozonesondes and MOZAIC-IAGOS is at high northern latitudes in winter-spring where the model is 10-20 ppbv too low. This appears to be due to insufficient stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE). Model updates to lightning NOx, Asian anthropogenic emissions, bromine chemistry, isoprene chemistry, and meteorological fields over the past decade have overall led to gradual increase in the simulated global tropospheric ozone burden and more active ozone production and loss. From simulations with different versions of GEOS meteorological fields we find that tropospheric ozone in GEOS-Chem v10-01 has a global production rate of 4960-5530 Tg a-1, lifetime of 20.9-24.2 days, burden of 345-357 Tg, and STE of 325-492 Tg a-1. Change in the intensity of tropical deep convection between these different meteorological fields is a major factor driving differences in the ozone budget.

  9. Estimates of global cyanobacterial biomass and its distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Pichel, Ferran; Belnap, Jayne; Neuer, Susanne; Schanz, Ferdinand

    2003-01-01

    We estimated global cyanobacterial biomass in the main reservoirs of cyanobacteria on Earth: marine and freshwater plankton, arid land soil crusts, and endoliths. Estimates were based on typical population density values as measured during our research, or as obtained from literature surveys, which were then coupled with data on global geographical area coverage. Among the marine plankton, the global biomass of Prochlorococcus reaches 120 × 1012 grams of carbon (g C), and that of Synechoccus some 43 × 1012 g C. This makes Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus, in that order, the most abundant cyanobacteria on Earth. Tropical marine blooms of Trichodesmium account for an additional 10 × 1012 g C worldwide. In terrestrial environments, the mass of cyanobacteria in arid land soil crusts is estimated to reach 54 × 1012 g C and that of arid land endolithic communities an additional 14 × 1012 g C. The global biomass of planktic cyanobacteria in lakes is estimated to be around 3 × 1012 g C. Our conservative estimates, which did not include some potentially significant biomass reservoirs such as polar and subarctic areas, topsoils in subhumid climates, and shallow marine and freshwater benthos, indicate that the total global cyanobacterial biomass is in the order of 3 × 1014 g C, surpassing a thousand million metric tons (1015 g) of wet biomass.

  10. Preparing for budget-based payment methodologies: global payment and episode-based payment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Mark E

    2015-10-01

    Use of budget-based payment methodologies (capitation and episode-based bundled payment) has been demonstrated to drive value in healthcare delivery. With a focus on high-volume, high-cost surgical procedures, inclusion of anaesthesiology services in these methodologies is likely. This review provides a summary of budget-based payment methodologies and practical information necessary for anaesthesiologists to prepare for participation in these programmes. Although few examples of anaesthesiologists' participation in these models exist, an understanding of the structure of these programmes and opportunities for participation are available. Prospective preparation in developing anaesthesiology-specific bundled payment profiles and early participation in pathway development associated with selected episodes of care are essential for successful participation as a gainsharing partner. With significant opportunity to contribute to care coordination and cost management, anaesthesiology can play an important role in budget-based payment programmes and should expect to participate as full gainsharing partners. Precise costing methodologies and accurate economic modelling, along with identification of quality management and cost control opportunities, will help identify participation opportunities and appropriate payment and gainsharing agreements. Anaesthesiology-specific examples with budget-based payment models are needed to help guide increased participation in these programmes.

  11. Global stereo matching algorithm based on disparity range estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jing; Zhao, Hong; Gu, Feifei

    2017-09-01

    The global stereo matching algorithms are of high accuracy for the estimation of disparity map, but the time-consuming in the optimization process still faces a curse, especially for the image pairs with high resolution and large baseline setting. To improve the computational efficiency of the global algorithms, a disparity range estimation scheme for the global stereo matching is proposed to estimate the disparity map of rectified stereo images in this paper. The projective geometry in a parallel binocular stereo vision is investigated to reveal a relationship between two disparities at each pixel in the rectified stereo images with different baselines, which can be used to quickly obtain a predicted disparity map in a long baseline setting estimated by that in the small one. Then, the drastically reduced disparity ranges at each pixel under a long baseline setting can be determined by the predicted disparity map. Furthermore, the disparity range estimation scheme is introduced into the graph cuts with expansion moves to estimate the precise disparity map, which can greatly save the cost of computing without loss of accuracy in the stereo matching, especially for the dense global stereo matching, compared to the traditional algorithm. Experimental results with the Middlebury stereo datasets are presented to demonstrate the validity and efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

  12. Global atmospheric carbon budget: results from an ensemble of atmospheric CO2 inversions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Peylin

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric CO2 inversions estimate surface carbon fluxes from an optimal fit to atmospheric CO2 measurements, usually including prior constraints on the flux estimates. Eleven sets of carbon flux estimates are compared, generated by different inversions systems that vary in their inversions methods, choice of atmospheric data, transport model and prior information. The inversions were run for at least 5 yr in the period between 1990 and 2010. Mean fluxes for 2001–2004, seasonal cycles, interannual variability and trends are compared for the tropics and northern and southern extra-tropics, and separately for land and ocean. Some continental/basin-scale subdivisions are also considered where the atmospheric network is denser. Four-year mean fluxes are reasonably consistent across inversions at global/latitudinal scale, with a large total (land plus ocean carbon uptake in the north (−3.4 Pg C yr−1 (±0.5 Pg C yr−1 standard deviation, with slightly more uptake over land than over ocean, a significant although more variable source over the tropics (1.6 ± 0.9 Pg C yr−1 and a compensatory sink of similar magnitude in the south (−1.4 ± 0.5 Pg C yr−1 corresponding mainly to an ocean sink. Largest differences across inversions occur in the balance between tropical land sources and southern land sinks. Interannual variability (IAV in carbon fluxes is larger for land than ocean regions (standard deviation around 1.06 versus 0.33 Pg C yr−1 for the 1996–2007 period, with much higher consistency among the inversions for the land. While the tropical land explains most of the IAV (standard deviation ~ 0.65 Pg C yr−1, the northern and southern land also contribute (standard deviation ~ 0.39 Pg C yr−1. Most inversions tend to indicate an increase of the northern land carbon uptake from late 1990s to 2008 (around 0.1 Pg C yr−1, predominantly in North Asia. The mean seasonal cycle appears to be well constrained by the atmospheric data over

  13. The Boron Isotopic Composition of Elephant Dung: Inputs to the Global Boron Budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, L. B.; Hervig, R. L.

    2011-12-01

    favor of 11B, thus increasing the δ11B of the (solid) digested material relative to the food source. This would not affect the overall BM input to the sediment because the dung contains the undigested plants. If we assume that the average B isotopic composition of dung, ~10ppm B at -20%, represents an average BM in sediment, and that the mass of sediments (1E24 g) is comparable to the mass of seawater with an average 5ppm B at +40%, then it is clear that BM plays a major role in balancing the global B budget. Note: This research was NOT funded by taxpayer dollars. The Phoenix Zoo kindly approved the proposal to sample elephant dung for this study and their support is greatly appreciated.

  14. The Application of a Phosphorus Budget Model Estimating the Carrying Capacity of Kesikköprü Dam Lake

    OpenAIRE

    PULATSÜ, Serap

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate the carrying capacity of Kesikköprü Dam Lake, Ankara, where cage farms for the intensive culture of rainbow trout are located. For this purpose Dillon and Rigler's phosphorus budget model was applied in a series of steps and the carrying capacity of the lake was found to be 3335 tonnes per year. This estimated value was about 10 times higher than the present production level of the lake. It seems possible to orientate the fish culture in cages in...

  15. A Global Geospatial Ecosystem Services Estimate of Urban Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinton, Nicholas; Stuhlmacher, Michelle; Miles, Albie; Uludere Aragon, Nazli; Wagner, Melissa; Georgescu, Matei; Herwig, Chris; Gong, Peng

    2018-01-01

    Though urban agriculture (UA), defined here as growing of crops in cities, is increasing in popularity and importance globally, little is known about the aggregate benefits of such natural capital in built-up areas. Here, we introduce a quantitative framework to assess global aggregate ecosystem services from existing vegetation in cities and an intensive UA adoption scenario based on data-driven estimates of urban morphology and vacant land. We analyzed global population, urban, meteorological, terrain, and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) datasets in Google Earth Engine to derive global scale estimates, aggregated by country, of services provided by UA. We estimate the value of four ecosystem services provided by existing vegetation in urban areas to be on the order of 33 billion annually. We project potential annual food production of 100-180 million tonnes, energy savings ranging from 14 to 15 billion kilowatt hours, nitrogen sequestration between 100,000 and 170,000 tonnes, and avoided storm water runoff between 45 and 57 billion cubic meters annually. In addition, we estimate that food production, nitrogen fixation, energy savings, pollination, climate regulation, soil formation and biological control of pests could be worth as much as 80-160 billion annually in a scenario of intense UA implementation. Our results demonstrate significant country-to-country variability in UA-derived ecosystem services and reduction of food insecurity. These estimates represent the first effort to consistently quantify these incentives globally, and highlight the relative spatial importance of built environments to act as change agents that alleviate mounting concerns associated with global environmental change and unsustainable development.

  16. Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baynes, Timothy Malcolm; Kaviti Musango, Josephine

    2018-06-01

    Urban material resource requirements are significant at the global level and these are expected to expand with future urban population growth. However, there are no global scale studies on the future material consumption of urban areas. This paper provides estimates of global urban domestic material consumption (DMC) in 2050 using three approaches based on: current gross statistics; a regression model; and a transition theoretic logistic model. All methods use UN urban population projections and assume a simple ‘business-as-usual’ scenario wherein historical aggregate trends in income and material flow continue into the future. A collation of data for 152 cities provided a year 2000 world average DMC/capita estimate, 12 tons/person/year (±22%), which we combined with UN population projections to produce a first-order estimation of urban DMC at 2050 of ~73 billion tons/year (±22%). Urban DMC/capita was found to be significantly correlated (R 2 > 0.9) to urban GDP/capita and area per person through a power law relation used to obtain a second estimate of 106 billion tons (±33%) in 2050. The inelastic exponent of the power law indicates a global tendency for relative decoupling of direct urban material consumption with increasing income. These estimates are global and influenced by the current proportion of developed-world cities in the global population of cities (and in our sample data). A third method employed a logistic model of transitions in urban DMC/capita with regional resolution. This method estimated global urban DMC to rise from approximately 40 billion tons/year in 2010 to ~90 billion tons/year in 2050 (modelled range: 66–111 billion tons/year). DMC/capita across different regions was estimated to converge from a range of 5–27 tons/person/year in the year 2000 to around 8–17 tons/person/year in 2050. The urban population does not increase proportionally during this period and thus the global average DMC/capita increases from ~12 to ~14 tons

  17. Estimating the global prevalence of transthyretin familial amyloid polyneuropathy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waddington‐Cruz, Márcia; Botteman, Marc F.; Carter, John A.; Chopra, Avijeet S.; Hopps, Markay; Stewart, Michelle; Fallet, Shari; Amass, Leslie

    2018-01-01

    ABSTRACT Introduction: This study sought to estimate the global prevalence of transthyretin familial amyloid polyneuropathy (ATTR‐FAP). Methods: Prevalence estimates and information supporting prevalence calculations was extracted from records yielded by reference‐database searches (2005–2016), conference proceedings, and nonpeer reviewed sources. Prevalence was calculated as prevalence rate multiplied by general population size, then extrapolated to countries without prevalence estimates but with reported cases. Results: Searches returned 3,006 records; 1,001 were fully assessed and 10 retained, yielding prevalence for 10 “core” countries, then extrapolated to 32 additional countries. ATTR‐FAP prevalence in core countries, extrapolated countries, and globally was 3,762 (range 3639–3884), 6424 (range, 1,887–34,584), and 10,186 (range, 5,526–38,468) persons, respectively. Discussion: The mid global prevalence estimate (10,186) approximates the maximum commonly accepted estimate (5,000–10,000). The upper limit (38,468) implies potentially higher prevalence. These estimates should be interpreted carefully because contributing evidence was heterogeneous and carried an overall moderate risk of bias. This highlights the requirement for increasing rare‐disease epidemiological assessment and clinician awareness. Muscle Nerve 57: 829–837, 2018 PMID:29211930

  18. Resolving the "Cost-Effective but Unaffordable" Paradox: Estimating the Health Opportunity Costs of Nonmarginal Budget Impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lomas, James; Claxton, Karl; Martin, Stephen; Soares, Marta

    2018-03-01

    Considering whether or not a proposed investment (an intervention, technology, or program of care) is affordable is really asking whether the benefits it offers are greater than its opportunity cost. To say that an investment is cost-effective but not affordable must mean that the (implicit or explicit) "threshold" used to judge cost-effectiveness does not reflect the scale and value of the opportunity costs. Existing empirical estimates of health opportunity costs are based on cross-sectional variation in expenditure and mortality outcomes by program budget categories (PBCs) and do not reflect the likely effect of nonmarginal budget impacts on health opportunity costs. The UK Department of Health regularly updates the needs-based target allocation of resources to local areas of the National Health Service (NHS), creating two subgroups of local areas (those under target allocation and those over). These data provide the opportunity to explore how the effects of changes in health care expenditure differ with available resources. We use 2008-2009 data to evaluate two econometric approaches to estimation and explore a range of criteria for accepting subgroup specific effects for differences in expenditure and outcome elasticities across the 23 PBCs. Our results indicate that health opportunity costs arising from an investment imposing net increases in expenditure are underestimated unless account is taken of likely nonmarginal effects. They also indicate the benefits (reduced health opportunity costs or increased value-based price of a technology) of being able to "smooth" these nonmarginal budget impacts by health care systems borrowing against future budgets or from manufacturers offering "mortgage" type arrangements. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. On global error estimation and control for initial value problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Lang (Jens); J.G. Verwer (Jan)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractThis paper addresses global error estimation and control for initial value problems for ordinary differential equations. The focus lies on a comparison between a novel approach based onthe adjoint method combined with a small sample statistical initialization and the classical approach

  20. On global error estimation and control for initial value problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lang, J.; Verwer, J.G.

    2007-01-01

    Abstract. This paper addresses global error estimation and control for initial value problems for ordinary differential equations. The focus lies on a comparison between a novel approach based on the adjoint method combined with a small sample statistical initialization and the classical approach

  1. Empirical Models for the Estimation of Global Solar Radiation in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Empirical Models for the Estimation of Global Solar Radiation in Yola, Nigeria. ... and average daily wind speed (WS) for the interval of three years (2010 – 2012) measured using various instruments for Yola of recorded data collected from the Center for Atmospheric Research (CAR), Anyigba are presented and analyzed.

  2. Estimating the true global burden of mental illness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigo, Daniel; Thornicroft, Graham; Atun, Rifat

    2016-02-01

    We argue that the global burden of mental illness is underestimated and examine the reasons for under-estimation to identify five main causes: overlap between psychiatric and neurological disorders; the grouping of suicide and self-harm as a separate category; conflation of all chronic pain syndromes with musculoskeletal disorders; exclusion of personality disorders from disease burden calculations; and inadequate consideration of the contribution of severe mental illness to mortality from associated causes. Using published data, we estimate the disease burden for mental illness to show that the global burden of mental illness accounts for 32·4% of years lived with disability (YLDs) and 13·0% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), instead of the earlier estimates suggesting 21·2% of YLDs and 7·1% of DALYs. Currently used approaches underestimate the burden of mental illness by more than a third. Our estimates place mental illness a distant first in global burden of disease in terms of YLDs, and level with cardiovascular and circulatory diseases in terms of DALYs. The unacceptable apathy of governments and funders of global health must be overcome to mitigate the human, social, and economic costs of mental illness. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. The ‘Alternative Quality Contract’ in Massachusetts, Based on Global Budgets, Lowered Medical Spending and Improved Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Zirui; Safran, Dana Gelb; Landon, Bruce E.; Landrum, Mary Beth; He, Yulei; Mechanic, Robert E.; Day, Matthew P.; Chernew, Michael E.

    2012-01-01

    Seven provider organizations in Massachusetts entered the Blue Cross Blue Shield Alternative Quality Contract in 2009, followed by four more organizations in 2010. This contract, based on a global budget and pay-for-performance for achieving certain quality benchmarks, places providers at risk for excessive spending and rewards them for quality, similar to the new Pioneer Accountable Care Organizations in Medicare. We analyzed changes in spending and quality associated with the Alternative Quality Contract and found that the rate of increase in spending slowed compared to control groups. Overall, participation in the contract over two years led to a savings of 3.3% (1.9% in year-1, 3.3% in year-2) compared to spending in groups not participating in the contract. The savings were even higher for groups whose previous experience had been only in fee-for-service contracting. Such groups’ quarterly savings over two years averaged 8.2% (6.3% in year-1, 9.9% in year-2). Quality of care also improved within organizations participating in the Alternative Quality Contract compared to control organizations in both years. Chronic care management, adult preventive care, and pediatric care improved from year 1 to year 2 within the contracting groups. These results suggest that global budgets coupled with pay-for-performance can begin to slow the underlying growth in medical spending while improving quality. PMID:22786651

  4. Global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

  5. Correlation Dimension Estimates of Global and Local Temperature Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qiang

    1995-11-01

    The author has attempted to detect the presence of low-dimensional deterministic chaos in temperature data by estimating the correlation dimension with the Hill estimate that has been recently developed by Mikosch and Wang. There is no convincing evidence of low dimensionality with either global dataset (Southern Hemisphere monthly average temperatures from 1858 to 1984) or local temperature dataset (daily minimums at Auckland, New Zealand). Any apparent reduction in the dimension estimates appears to be due large1y, if not entirely, to effects of statistical bias, but neither is it a purely random stochastic process. The dimension of the climatic attractor may be significantly larger than 10.

  6. Average Estimates of Water-Budget Components Based on Hydrograph Separation and PRISM Precipitation for Gaged Basins in the Appalachian Plateaus Region, 1900-2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of the Interior — As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Groundwater Resources Program study of the Appalachian Plateaus aquifers, estimates of annual water-budget components were...

  7. Annual Estimates of Water-Budget Components Based on Hydrograph Separation and PRISM Precipitation for Gaged Basins in the Appalachian Plateaus Region, 1900-2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of the Interior — As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Groundwater Resources Program study of the Appalachian Plateaus aquifers, estimates of annual water-budget components were...

  8. Office of the Secretary of Defense Operation and Maintenance Overview, Fiscal Year (FY) 2006 Budget Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-02-01

    2005 and is funded within OSD); -- eGov Initiatives supporting the President’s Management Agenda and funding for Government -wide Councils (FY 2006...equipment transformation initiative ($0.2 billion);. • Navy: Funding transfers in of Fleet Flying Hour and other support from Fleet Air Training and the...priorities for Army forces that are simultaneously at war and transforming . The FY 2006 budget does not include any funding requests associated with

  9. Standardized Water Budget Index and Validation in Drought Estimation of Haihe River Basin, North China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaohua Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The physical-based drought indices such as the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI with the fixed time scale is inadequate for the multiscalar drought assessment, and the multiscalar drought indices including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI, and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI based on the meteorological factors are lack of physical mechanism and cannot depict the actual water budget. To fill this gap, the Standardized Water Budget Index (SWBI is constructed based on the difference between areal precipitation and actual evapotranspiration (AET, which can describe the actual water budget but also assess the drought at multiple time scales. Then, sc-PDSI was taken as the reference drought index to compare with multiscalar drought indices at different time scale in Haihe River basin. The result shows that SWBI correlates better with sc-PDSI and the RMSE of SWBI is less than other multiscalar drought indices. In addition, all of drought indices show a decreasing trend in Haihe River Basin, possibly due to the decreasing precipitation from 1961 to 2010. The decreasing trends of SWBI were significant and consistent at all the time scales, while the decreasing trends of other multiscalar drought indices are insignificant at time scale less than 3 months.

  10. Estimation of diffuse from measured global solar radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moriarty, W.W.

    1991-01-01

    A data set of quality controlled radiation observations from stations scattered throughout Australia was formed and further screened to remove residual doubtful observations. It was then divided into groups by solar elevation, and used to find average relationships for each elevation group between relative global radiation (clearness index - the measured global radiation expressed as a proportion of the radiation on a horizontal surface at the top of the atmosphere) and relative diffuse radiation. Clear-cut relationships were found, which were then fitted by polynomial expressions giving the relative diffuse radiation as a function of relative global radiation and solar elevation. When these expressions were used to estimate the diffuse radiation from the global, the results had a slightly smaller spread of errors than those from an earlier technique given by Spencer. It was found that the errors were related to cloud amount, and further relationships were developed giving the errors as functions of global radiation, solar elevation, and the fraction of sky obscured by high cloud and by opaque (low and middle level) cloud. When these relationships were used to adjust the first estimates of diffuse radiation, there was a considerable reduction in the number of large errors

  11. Use of GOES, SSM/I, TRMM Satellite Measurements Estimating Water Budget Variations in Gulf of Mexico - Caribbean Sea Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Eric A.

    2004-01-01

    This study presents results from a multi-satellite/multi-sensor retrieval system designed to obtain the atmospheric water budget over the open ocean. A combination of 3ourly-sampled monthly datasets derived from the GOES-8 5-channel Imager, the TRMM TMI radiometer, and the DMSP 7-channel passive microwave radiometers (SSM/I) have been acquired for the combined Gulf of Mexico-Caribbean Sea basin. Whereas the methodology has been tested over this basin, the retrieval system is designed for portability to any open-ocean region. Algorithm modules using the different datasets to retrieve individual geophysical parameters needed in the water budget equation are designed in a manner that takes advantage of the high temporal resolution of the GOES-8 measurements, as well as the physical relationships inherent to the TRMM and SSM/I passive microwave measurements in conjunction with water vapor, cloud liquid water, and rainfall. The methodology consists of retrieving the precipitation, surface evaporation, and vapor-cloud water storage terms in the atmospheric water balance equation from satellite techniques, with the water vapor advection term being obtained as the residue needed for balance. Thus, the intent is to develop a purely satellite-based method for obtaining the full set of terms in the atmospheric water budget equation without requiring in situ sounding information on the wind profile. The algorithm is validated by cross-checking all the algorithm components through multiple- algorithm retrieval intercomparisons. A further check on the validation is obtained by directly comparing water vapor transports into the targeted basin diagnosed from the satellite algorithms to those obtained observationally from a network of land-based upper air stations that nearly uniformly surround the basin, although it is fair to say that these checks are more effective m identifying problems in estimating vapor transports from a leaky operational radiosonde network than in verifying

  12. 1km Global Terrestrial Carbon Flux: Estimations and Evaluations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, K.; Sasai, T.; Kato, S.; Saito, M.; Matsunaga, T.; Hiraki, K.; Maksyutov, S. S.

    2017-12-01

    Estimating global scale of the terrestrial carbon flux change with high accuracy and high resolution is important to understand global environmental changes. Furthermore the estimations of the global spatiotemporal distribution may contribute to the political and social activities such as REDD+. In order to reveal the current state of terrestrial carbon fluxes covering all over the world and a decadal scale. The satellite-based diagnostic biosphere model is suitable for achieving this purpose owing to observing on the present global land surface condition uniformly at some time interval. In this study, we estimated the global terrestrial carbon fluxes with 1km grids by using the terrestrial biosphere model (BEAMS). And we evaluated our new carbon flux estimations on various spatial scales and showed the transition of forest carbon stocks in some regions. Because BEAMS required high resolution meteorological data and satellite data as input data, we made 1km interpolated data using a kriging method. The data used in this study were JRA-55, GPCP, GOSAT L4B atmospheric CO2 data as meteorological data, and MODIS land product as land surface satellite data. Interpolating process was performed on the meteorological data because of insufficient resolution, but not on MODIS data. We evaluated our new carbon flux estimations using the flux tower measurement (FLUXNET2015 Datasets) in a point scale. We used 166 sites data for evaluating our model results. These flux sites are classified following vegetation type (DBF, EBF, ENF, mixed forests, grass lands, croplands, shrub lands, Savannas, wetlands). In global scale, the BEAMS estimations was underestimated compared to the flux measurements in the case of carbon uptake and release. The monthly variations of NEP showed relatively high correlations in DBF and mixed forests, but the correlation coefficients of EBF, ENF, and grass lands were less than 0.5. In the meteorological factors, air temperature and solar radiation showed

  13. Rapid estimation of the economic consequences of global earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, operational since mid 2007, rapidly estimates the most affected locations and the population exposure at different levels of shaking intensities. The PAGER system has significantly improved the way aid agencies determine the scale of response needed in the aftermath of an earthquake. For example, the PAGER exposure estimates provided reasonably accurate assessments of the scale and spatial extent of the damage and losses following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) in China, the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (Mw 6.3) in Italy, the 2010 Haiti earthquake (Mw 7.0), and the 2010 Chile earthquake (Mw 8.8). Nevertheless, some engineering and seismological expertise is often required to digest PAGER's exposure estimate and turn it into estimated fatalities and economic losses. This has been the focus of PAGER's most recent development. With the new loss-estimation component of the PAGER system it is now possible to produce rapid estimation of expected fatalities for global earthquakes (Jaiswal and others, 2009). While an estimate of earthquake fatalities is a fundamental indicator of potential human consequences in developing countries (for example, Iran, Pakistan, Haiti, Peru, and many others), economic consequences often drive the responses in much of the developed world (for example, New Zealand, the United States, and Chile), where the improved structural behavior of seismically resistant buildings significantly reduces earthquake casualties. Rapid availability of estimates of both fatalities and economic losses can be a valuable resource. The total time needed to determine the actual scope of an earthquake disaster and to respond effectively varies from country to country. It can take days or sometimes weeks before the damage and consequences of a disaster can be understood both socially and economically. The objective of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system is

  14. Estimating perception of scene layout properties from global image features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Michael G; Oliva, Aude

    2010-01-08

    The relationship between image features and scene structure is central to the study of human visual perception and computer vision, but many of the specifics of real-world layout perception remain unknown. We do not know which image features are relevant to perceiving layout properties, or whether those features provide the same information for every type of image. Furthermore, we do not know the spatial resolutions required for perceiving different properties. This paper describes an experiment and a computational model that provides new insights on these issues. Humans perceive the global spatial layout properties such as dominant depth, openness, and perspective, from a single image. This work describes an algorithm that reliably predicts human layout judgments. This model's predictions are general, not specific to the observers it trained on. Analysis reveals that the optimal spatial resolutions for determining layout vary with the content of the space and the property being estimated. Openness is best estimated at high resolution, depth is best estimated at medium resolution, and perspective is best estimated at low resolution. Given the reliability and simplicity of estimating the global layout of real-world environments, this model could help resolve perceptual ambiguities encountered by more detailed scene reconstruction schemas.

  15. Applicability of empirical correlations for estimating global solar radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gopinathan, K.K.; Baholo, M.

    1987-01-01

    Three empirical models suggested by different investigators, for estimating monthly mean daily global radiation on a horizontal surface, are compared statistically to test their universal applicability. The models thus compared are those suggested by Rietveld, Glover and McCulloch and Gopinathan. The models are compared by calculating the root mean square error, mean bias error and mean relative percentage error values. The model suggested by Gopinathan yields the best results in terms of root mean square, mean bias and mean percentage errors. The model by Rietveld is the second best and the model by Glover and McCulloch comes at third place. However, the differences in the magnitude of errors among the three models are very small and all the three models can be considered to be accurate for global radiation estimation for any location in the world

  16. US Global Change Research Program Distributed Cost Budget Interagency Funds Transfer from DOE to NSF

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uhle, Maria [National Science Foundation (NSF), Washington, DC (United States)

    2016-09-22

    These funds were transferred from DOE to NSF as DOE's contribution to the U.S. Global Change Research Program in support of 4 internationalnactivities/programs as approved by the U.S. Global Change Research Program on 14 March 2014. The programs are the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, the DIVERSITAS programme, and the World Climate Research Program. All program awards ended as of 09-23-2015.

  17. Estimating Global Burden of Disease due to congenital anomaly

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boyle, Breidge; Addor, Marie-Claude; Arriola, Larraitz

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To validate the estimates of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) due to congenital anomaly for Europe by comparing infant mortality data collected by EUROCAT registries with the WHO Mortality Database, and by assessing the significance of stillbirths and terminations of pregnancy for fetal...... the burden of disease due to congenital anomaly, and thus declining YLL over time may obscure lack of progress in primary, secondary and tertiary prevention....

  18. Estimated Budget Impact of Adopting the Affordable Care Act's Required Smoking Cessation Coverage on United States Healthcare Payers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Christine L; Ferrufino, Cheryl P; Bruno, Marianna; Kowal, Stacey

    2017-01-01

    Despite abundant information on the negative impacts of smoking, more than 40 million adult Americans continue to smoke. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) requires tobacco cessation as a preventive service with no patient cost share for all FDA-approved cessation medications. Health plans have a vital role in supporting smoking cessation by managing medication access, but uncertainty remains on the gaps between smoking cessation requirements and what is actually occurring in practice. This study presents current cessation patterns, real-world drug costs and plan benefit design data, and estimates the 1- to 5-year pharmacy budget impact of providing ACA-required coverage for smoking cessation products to understand the fiscal impact to a US healthcare plan. A closed cohort budget impact model was developed in Microsoft Excel ® to estimate current and projected costs for US payers (commercial, Medicare, Medicaid) covering smoking cessation medicines, with assumptions for coverage and smoking cessation product utilization based on current, real-world national and state-level trends for hypothetical commercial, Medicare, and Medicaid plans with 1 million covered lives. A Markov methodology with five health states captures quit attempt and relapse patterns. Results include the number of smokers attempting to quit, number of successful quitters, annual costs, and cost per-member per-month (PMPM). The projected PMPM cost of providing coverage for smoking cessation medications is $0.10 for commercial, $0.06 for Medicare, and $0.07 for Medicaid plans, reflecting a low incremental PMPM impact of covering two attempts ranging from $0.01 for Medicaid to $0.02 for commercial and Medicare payers. The projected PMPM impact of covering two quit attempts with access to all seven cessation medications at no patient cost share remains low. Results of this study reinforce that the impact of adopting the ACA requirements for smoking cessation coverage will have a limited near-term impact

  19. Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Water and Salt Budgets of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.

    1996-01-01

    The annual flux of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean by the atmosphere and rivers is balanced by the export of sea ice and oceanic freshwater. Two 150-year simulations of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that the total inflow of water from the atmosphere and rivers increases by 10% primarily due to an increase in river discharge, the annual sea-ice export decreases by about half, the oceanic liquid water export increases, salinity decreases, sea-ice cover decreases, and the total mass and sea-surface height of the Arctic Ocean increase. The closed, compact, and multi-phased nature of the hydrologic cycle in the Arctic Ocean makes it an ideal test of water budgets that could be included in model intercomparisons.

  20. Estimating Basin-Scale Water Budgets with SMAP Level 2 Soil Moisture Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, Randal; Crow, Wade; Reichle, Rolf; Mahanama, Sarith P.

    2018-01-01

    The SMAP estimates of rainfall and streamflow are not perfect, but they do contain relevant information. At the very least, they should prove useful for constraining, or otherwise contributing to, rainfall and streamflow estimates obtained with more conventional approaches.

  1. A Global Estimate of the Number of Coral Reef Fishers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louise S L Teh

    Full Text Available Overfishing threatens coral reefs worldwide, yet there is no reliable estimate on the number of reef fishers globally. We address this data gap by quantifying the number of reef fishers on a global scale, using two approaches - the first estimates reef fishers as a proportion of the total number of marine fishers in a country, based on the ratio of reef-related to total marine fish landed values. The second estimates reef fishers as a function of coral reef area, rural coastal population, and fishing pressure. In total, we find that there are 6 million reef fishers in 99 reef countries and territories worldwide, of which at least 25% are reef gleaners. Our estimates are an improvement over most existing fisher population statistics, which tend to omit accounting for gleaners and reef fishers. Our results suggest that slightly over a quarter of the world's small-scale fishers fish on coral reefs, and half of all coral reef fishers are in Southeast Asia. Coral reefs evidently support the socio-economic well-being of numerous coastal communities. By quantifying the number of people who are employed as reef fishers, we provide decision-makers with an important input into planning for sustainable coral reef fisheries at the appropriate scale.

  2. A Global Estimate of the Number of Coral Reef Fishers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teh, Louise S L; Teh, Lydia C L; Sumaila, U Rashid

    2013-01-01

    Overfishing threatens coral reefs worldwide, yet there is no reliable estimate on the number of reef fishers globally. We address this data gap by quantifying the number of reef fishers on a global scale, using two approaches - the first estimates reef fishers as a proportion of the total number of marine fishers in a country, based on the ratio of reef-related to total marine fish landed values. The second estimates reef fishers as a function of coral reef area, rural coastal population, and fishing pressure. In total, we find that there are 6 million reef fishers in 99 reef countries and territories worldwide, of which at least 25% are reef gleaners. Our estimates are an improvement over most existing fisher population statistics, which tend to omit accounting for gleaners and reef fishers. Our results suggest that slightly over a quarter of the world's small-scale fishers fish on coral reefs, and half of all coral reef fishers are in Southeast Asia. Coral reefs evidently support the socio-economic well-being of numerous coastal communities. By quantifying the number of people who are employed as reef fishers, we provide decision-makers with an important input into planning for sustainable coral reef fisheries at the appropriate scale.

  3. Damage severity estimation from the global stiffness decrease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitescu, C; Gillich, G R; Manescu, T; Korka, Z I; Abdel Wahab, M

    2017-01-01

    In actual damage detection methods, localization and severity estimation can be treated separately. The severity is commonly estimated using fracture mechanics approach, with the main disadvantage of involving empirically deduced relations. In this paper, a damage severity estimator based on the global stiffness reduction is proposed. This feature is computed from the deflections of the intact and damaged beam, respectively. The damage is always located where the bending moment achieves maxima. If the damage is positioned elsewhere on the beam, its effect becomes lower, because the stress is produced by a diminished bending moment. It is shown that the global stiffness reduction produced by a crack is the same for all beams with a similar cross-section, regardless of the boundary conditions. One mathematical relation indicating the severity and another indicating the effect of removing damage from the beam. Measurements on damaged beams with different boundary conditions and cross-sections are carried out, and the location and severity are found using the proposed relations. These comparisons prove that the proposed approach can be used to accurately compute the severity estimator. (paper)

  4. Mechanisms Controlling Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature Determined From a State Estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponte, R. M.; Piecuch, C. G.

    2018-04-01

    Global mean sea surface temperature (T¯) is a variable of primary interest in studies of climate variability and change. The temporal evolution of T¯ can be influenced by surface heat fluxes (F¯) and by diffusion (D¯) and advection (A¯) processes internal to the ocean, but quantifying the contribution of these different factors from data alone is prone to substantial uncertainties. Here we derive a closed T¯ budget for the period 1993-2015 based on a global ocean state estimate, which is an exact solution of a general circulation model constrained to most extant ocean observations through advanced optimization methods. The estimated average temperature of the top (10-m thick) level in the model, taken to represent T¯, shows relatively small variability at most time scales compared to F¯, D¯, or A¯, reflecting the tendency for largely balancing effects from all the latter terms. The seasonal cycle in T¯ is mostly determined by small imbalances between F¯ and D¯, with negligible contributions from A¯. While D¯ seems to simply damp F¯ at the annual period, a different dynamical role for D¯ at semiannual period is suggested by it being larger than F¯. At periods longer than annual, A¯ contributes importantly to T¯ variability, pointing to the direct influence of the variable ocean circulation on T¯ and mean surface climate.

  5. A priori estimates of global solutions of superlinear parabolic systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julius Pacuta

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available We consider the parabolic system $ u_{t}-\\Delta u = u^{r}v^{p}$, $v_{t}-\\Delta v = u^{q}v^{s}$ in $\\Omega\\times(0,\\infty$, complemented by the homogeneous Dirichlet boundary conditions and the initial conditions $(u,v(\\cdot,0 = (u_{0},v_{0}$ in $\\Omega$, where $\\Omega $ is a smooth bounded domain in $ \\mathbb{R}^{N} $ and $ u_{0},v_{0}\\in L^{\\infty}(\\Omega$ are nonnegative functions. We find conditions on $ p,q,r,s $ guaranteeing a priori estimates of nonnegative classical global solutions. More precisely every such solution is bounded by a constant depending on suitable norm of the initial data. Our proofs are based on bootstrap in weighted Lebesgue spaces, universal estimates of auxiliary functions and estimates of the Dirichlet heat kernel.

  6. Estimation of Hepatitis C Disease Burden and Budget Impact of Treatment Using Health Economic Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chhatwal, Jagpreet; Chen, Qiushi; Aggarwal, Rakesh

    2018-06-01

    Oral direct-acting antiviral agents have revolutionized treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Nonetheless, barriers exist to elimination of HCV as a public health threat including low uptake of treatment, limited budget allocations for HCV treatment, and low awareness rates of HCV status among infected people. Mathematical modeling provides a systematic framework to analyze and compare potential solutions and elimination strategies by simulating the HCV epidemic under different conditions. Such models evaluate impact of interventions in advance of implementation. This article describes key components of developing an HCV burden model and illustrates its use by simulating the HCV epidemic in the United States. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, W.; Luo, Y.; Li, X.; Liu, S.; Yu, G.; Zhou, T.; Bahn, M.; Black, A.; Desai, A.R.; Cescatti, A.; Marcolla, B.; Jacobs, C.; Chen, J.; Aurela, M.; Bernhofer, C.; Gielen, B.; Bohrer, G.; Cook, D.R.; Dragoni, D.; Dunn, A.L.; Gianelle, D.; Grnwald, T.; Ibrom, A.; Leclerc, M.Y.; Lindroth, A.; Liu, H.; Marchesini, L.B.; Montagnani, L.; Pita, G.; Rodeghiero, M.; Rodrigues, A.; Starr, G.; Stoy, Paul C.

    2011-01-01

    Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models still use a global constant BR largely due to the lack of a functional description for BR. In this study, we redefined BR to be ecosystem respiration rate at the mean annual temperature. To test the validity of this concept, we conducted a synthesis analysis using 276 site-years of eddy covariance data, from 79 research sites located at latitudes ranging from ∼3°S to ∼70°N. Results showed that mean annual ER rate closely matches ER rate at mean annual temperature. Incorporation of site-specific BR into global ER model substantially improved simulated ER compared to an invariant BR at all sites. These results confirm that ER at the mean annual temperature can be considered as BR in empirical models. A strong correlation was found between the mean annual ER and mean annual gross primary production (GPP). Consequently, GPP, which is typically more accurately modeled, can be used to estimate BR. A light use efficiency GPP model (i.e., EC-LUE) was applied to estimate global GPP, BR and ER with input data from MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications) and MODIS (Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The global ER was 103 Pg C yr −1, with the highest respiration rate over tropical forests and the lowest value in dry and high-latitude areas.

  8. Plumbing the global carbon cycle: Integrating inland waters into the terrestrial carbon budget

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cole, J.; Prairie, Y.T.; Caraco, N.; McDowell, W.H.; Tranvil, L.; Striegl, R.G.; Duarte, C.M.; Kortelainen, P.; Downing, J.A.; Middelburg, J.J.; Melack, J.

    2007-01-01

    Because freshwater covers such a small fraction of the Earth’s surface area, inland freshwater ecosystems (particularly lakes, rivers, and reservoirs) have rarely been considered as potentially important quantitative components of the carbon cycle at either global or regional scales. By taking

  9. Carbon budgets of biological soil crusts at micro-, meso-, and global scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sancho, Leopoldo G; Belnap, Jayne; Colesie, Claudia; Raggio, Jose; Weber, Bettina

    2016-01-01

    The importance of biocrusts in the ecology of arid lands across all continents is widely recognized. In spite of this broad distribution, contributions of biocrusts to the global biogeochemical cycles have only recently been considered. While these studies opened a new view on the global role of biocrusts, they also clearly revealed the lack of data for many habitats and of overall standards for measurements and analysis. In order to understand carbon cycling in biocrusts and the progress which has been made during the last 15 years, we offer a multi-scale approach covering different climatic regions. We also include a discussion on available measurement techniques at each scale: A micro-scale section focuses on the individual organism level, including modeling based on the combination of field and lab data. The meso-scale section addresses the CO2 exchange of a complete ecosystem or at the community level. Finally, we consider the contribution of biocrusts at a global scale, giving a general perspective of the most relevant findings regarding the role of biological soil crusts in the global terrestrial carbon cycle.

  10. Estimation of Global Vegetation Productivity from Global LAnd Surface Satellite Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Yu

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Accurately estimating vegetation productivity is important in research on terrestrial ecosystems, carbon cycles and climate change. Eight-day gross primary production (GPP and annual net primary production (NPP are contained in MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS products (MOD17, which are considered the first operational datasets for monitoring global vegetation productivity. However, the cloud-contaminated MODIS leaf area index (LAI and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR retrievals may introduce some considerable errors to MODIS GPP and NPP products. In this paper, global eight-day GPP and eight-day NPP were first estimated based on Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS LAI and FPAR products. Then, GPP and NPP estimates were validated by FLUXNET GPP data and BigFoot NPP data and were compared with MODIS GPP and NPP products. Compared with MODIS GPP, a time series showed that estimated GLASS GPP in our study was more temporally continuous and spatially complete with smoother trajectories. Validated with FLUXNET GPP and BigFoot NPP, we demonstrated that estimated GLASS GPP and NPP achieved higher precision for most vegetation types.

  11. Estimating mean long-term hydrologic budget components for watersheds and counties: An application to the commonwealth of Virginia, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanford, Ward E.; Nelms, David L.; Pope, Jason P.; Selnick, David L.

    2015-01-01

    Mean long-term hydrologic budget components, such as recharge and base flow, are often difficult to estimate because they can vary substantially in space and time. Mean long-term fluxes were calculated in this study for precipitation, surface runoff, infiltration, total evapotranspiration (ET), riparian ET, recharge, base flow (or groundwater discharge) and net total outflow using long-term estimates of mean ET and precipitation and the assumption that the relative change in storage over that 30-year period is small compared to the total ET or precipitation. Fluxes of these components were first estimated on a number of real-time-gaged watersheds across Virginia. Specific conductance was used to distinguish and separate surface runoff from base flow. Specific-conductance (SC) data were collected every 15 minutes at 75 real-time gages for approximately 18 months between March 2007 and August 2008. Precipitation was estimated for 1971-2000 using PRISM climate data. Precipitation and temperature from the PRISM data were used to develop a regression-based relation to estimate total ET. The proportion of watershed precipitation that becomes surface runoff was related to physiographic province and rock type in a runoff regression equation. A new approach to estimate riparian ET using seasonal SC data gave results consistent with those from other methods. Component flux estimates from the watersheds were transferred to flux estimates for counties and independent cities using the ET and runoff regression equations. Only 48 of the 75 watersheds yielded sufficient data, and data from these 48 were used in the final runoff regression equation. Final results for the study are presented as component flux estimates for all counties and independent cities in Virginia. The method has the potential to be applied in many other states in the U.S. or in other regions or countries of the world where climate and stream flow data are plentiful.

  12. Religious affiliation at time of death - Global estimates and projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skirbekk, Vegard; Todd, Megan; Stonawski, Marcin

    2018-03-01

    Religious affiliation influences societal practices regarding death and dying, including palliative care, religiously acceptable health service procedures, funeral rites and beliefs about an afterlife. We aimed to estimate and project religious affiliation at the time of death globally, as this information has been lacking. We compiled data on demographic information and religious affiliation from more than 2500 surveys, registers and censuses covering 198 nations/territories. We present estimates of religious affiliation at the time of death as of 2010, projections up to and including 2060, taking into account trends in mortality, religious conversion, intergenerational transmission of religion, differential fertility, and gross migration flows, by age and sex. We find that Christianity continues to be the most common religion at death, although its share will fall from 37% to 31% of global deaths between 2010 and 2060. The share of individuals identifying as Muslim at the time of death increases from 21% to 24%. The share of religiously unaffiliated will peak at 17% in 2035 followed by a slight decline thereafter. In specific regions, such as Europe, the unaffiliated share will continue to rises from 14% to 21% throughout the period. Religious affiliation at the time of death is changing globally, with distinct regional patterns. This could affect spatial variation in healthcare and social customs relating to death and dying.

  13. Global solar radiation estimation in Lavras region, Minas Gerais

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dantas, A.A.A.; Carvalho, L.G. de; Ferreira, E.

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this work was the determination of the ''a'' and '' b'' constants of the Angstrom linear model in order to estimate the global solar radiation in Lavras, MG. The work was carried out in the Climatological Station of Lavras (ECP/INMET/UFLA), at the Federal University of Lavras, from December 2001 to November 2002, through insolation daily data and global solar radiation daily records. The ''a'' and '' b'' constants, that express the atmospheric transmitance, were obtained by regression analysis of those data. The obtained equation, Qg/Qt = 0,23 + 0,49 presented a determination coefficient of 0,89. The results are smaller than those suggested by the recommendations that uses the local latitude. According to the results, its possible to indicate the values of 0,23 and 0,49 to be used as the ''a'' and '' b'' constants on the Angstrom equation to estimate the global solar radiation in Lavras, MG. (author) [pt

  14. Global parameter estimation for thermodynamic models of transcriptional regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suleimenov, Yerzhan; Ay, Ahmet; Samee, Md Abul Hassan; Dresch, Jacqueline M; Sinha, Saurabh; Arnosti, David N

    2013-07-15

    Deciphering the mechanisms involved in gene regulation holds the key to understanding the control of central biological processes, including human disease, population variation, and the evolution of morphological innovations. New experimental techniques including whole genome sequencing and transcriptome analysis have enabled comprehensive modeling approaches to study gene regulation. In many cases, it is useful to be able to assign biological significance to the inferred model parameters, but such interpretation should take into account features that affect these parameters, including model construction and sensitivity, the type of fitness calculation, and the effectiveness of parameter estimation. This last point is often neglected, as estimation methods are often selected for historical reasons or for computational ease. Here, we compare the performance of two parameter estimation techniques broadly representative of local and global approaches, namely, a quasi-Newton/Nelder-Mead simplex (QN/NMS) method and a covariance matrix adaptation-evolutionary strategy (CMA-ES) method. The estimation methods were applied to a set of thermodynamic models of gene transcription applied to regulatory elements active in the Drosophila embryo. Measuring overall fit, the global CMA-ES method performed significantly better than the local QN/NMS method on high quality data sets, but this difference was negligible on lower quality data sets with increased noise or on data sets simplified by stringent thresholding. Our results suggest that the choice of parameter estimation technique for evaluation of gene expression models depends both on quality of data, the nature of the models [again, remains to be established] and the aims of the modeling effort. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Development of multi-sensor global cloud and radiance composites for earth radiation budget monitoring from DSCOVR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khlopenkov, Konstantin; Duda, David; Thieman, Mandana; Minnis, Patrick; Su, Wenying; Bedka, Kristopher

    2017-10-01

    The Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) enables analysis of the daytime Earth radiation budget via the onboard Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) and National Institute of Standards and Technology Advanced Radiometer (NISTAR). Radiance observations and cloud property retrievals from low earth orbit and geostationary satellite imagers have to be co-located with EPIC pixels to provide scene identification in order to select anisotropic directional models needed to calculate shortwave and longwave fluxes. A new algorithm is proposed for optimal merging of selected radiances and cloud properties derived from multiple satellite imagers to obtain seamless global hourly composites at 5-km resolution. An aggregated rating is employed to incorporate several factors and to select the best observation at the time nearest to the EPIC measurement. Spatial accuracy is improved using inverse mapping with gradient search during reprojection and bicubic interpolation for pixel resampling. The composite data are subsequently remapped into EPIC-view domain by convolving composite pixels with the EPIC point spread function defined with a half-pixel accuracy. PSF-weighted average radiances and cloud properties are computed separately for each cloud phase. The algorithm has demonstrated contiguous global coverage for any requested time of day with a temporal lag of under 2 hours in over 95% of the globe.

  16. Seasonal Evaporation and Surface Energy Budget Estimation Across an Arid Agricultural Region in Saudi Arabia: Quantifying Groundwater Extraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aragon, B.; Huang, D.; Houborg, R.; Dasari, H. P.; Hoteit, I.; McCabe, M.

    2017-12-01

    In arid-land agricultural environments, knowledge of the water and energy budget is critical in order to sustainably manage the allocation and use of water resources. Using long-term weather reanalysis data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and a time-series record of Landsat 8 imagery, we apply the Priestly-Taylor Jet Propulsion Lab (PT-JPL) model to estimate the energy budget over the Al Jawf agricultural region in the north of Saudi Arabia. This zone generates a significant proportion of the agricultural production in Saudi Arabia and consumes an important fraction of the non-renewable water resources. This research contributes towards efforts seeking to quantify the precise amount of water that is used in agriculture - a difficult variable given that the overwhelming majority of supply comes from groundwater extraction. Results of this research can be used to improve crop management and to mitigate aquifer over-exploitation by monitoring the indiscriminate use of water and establishing bounds around the rates of groundwater withdrawal.

  17. Estimating the gross budget of applied nitrogen and phosphorus in tea plantations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi-Feng Chen

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available To increase crop yield, high fertilizer application rates have generally been used. The residual fertilizers potentially become a source of diffused pollution, and degrade soil and water quality. Such nonpoint source pollution is a major threat to reservoir eutrophication. The best management practices (BMPs are usually used to prevent eutrophication; however, the environmental distribution of the applied fertilizers has not been understood properly. This could lead to a biased assessment of the rational quantity of nitrogen and phosphorous applied and the selection of BMPs. A field investigation of 32 plantations and 4 forests in the Feitsui Reservoir watershed, Taiwan, was conducted. Storm runoff water and soils were sampled, and a mass balance was used to demonstrate the gross nutrient budget. The results showed that when applying fertilizers of 2700 kg ha−1 in tea plantations only 18.3% of applied nitrogen and 5.5% of applied phosphorus were utilized by tea plants. Less than 5% of applied phosphorus was released in storm runoff, and more than 90% remained in the field. Approximately 30% of the nitrogen was lost through storm runoff, and 52% was stored in the soil mass. Therefore, reducing fertilizer application was recommended as the principal BMP, and collecting and treating storm runoff was suggested for controlling nitrogen pollution. The current management of soil erosion is an efficient measure for controlling phosphorus pollution.

  18. Global Carleman estimates for degenerate parabolic operators with applications

    CERN Document Server

    Cannarsa, P; Vancostenoble, J

    2016-01-01

    Degenerate parabolic operators have received increasing attention in recent years because they are associated with both important theoretical analysis, such as stochastic diffusion processes, and interesting applications to engineering, physics, biology, and economics. This manuscript has been conceived to introduce the reader to global Carleman estimates for a class of parabolic operators which may degenerate at the boundary of the space domain, in the normal direction to the boundary. Such a kind of degeneracy is relevant to study the invariance of a domain with respect to a given stochastic diffusion flow, and appears naturally in climatology models.

  19. Global and regional emission estimates for HCFC-22

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Saikawa

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available HCFC-22 (CHClF2, chlorodifluoromethane is an ozone-depleting substance (ODS as well as a significant greenhouse gas (GHG. HCFC-22 has been used widely as a refrigerant fluid in cooling and air-conditioning equipment since the 1960s, and it has also served as a traditional substitute for some chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs controlled under the Montreal Protocol. A low frequency record on tropospheric HCFC-22 since the late 1970s is available from measurements of the Southern Hemisphere Cape Grim Air Archive (CGAA and a few Northern Hemisphere air samples (mostly from Trinidad Head using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE instrumentation and calibrations. Since the 1990s high-frequency, high-precision, in situ HCFC-22 measurements have been collected at these AGAGE stations. Since 1992, the Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL has also collected flasks on a weekly basis from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of halocarbons including HCFC-22. Additionally, since 2006 flasks have been collected approximately daily at a number of tower sites across the US and analyzed for halocarbons and other gases at NOAA. All results show an increase in the atmospheric mole fractions of HCFC-22, and recent data show a growth rate of approximately 4% per year, resulting in an increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction by a factor of 1.7 from 1995 to 2009. Using data on HCFC-22 consumption submitted to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP, as well as existing bottom-up emission estimates, we first create globally-gridded a priori HCFC-22 emissions over the 15 yr since 1995. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4, and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions. Our inversion indicates

  20. Global Observations of Aerosols and Clouds from Combined Lidar and Passive Instruments to Improve Radiation Budget and Climate Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winker, David M.

    1999-01-01

    Current uncertainties in the effects of clouds and aerosols on the Earth radiation budget limit our understanding of the climate system and the potential for global climate change. Pathfinder Instruments for Cloud and Aerosol Spaceborne Observations - Climatologie Etendue des Nuages et des Aerosols (PICASSO-CENA) is a recently approved satellite mission within NASA's Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP) program which will address these uncertainties with a unique suite of active and passive instruments. The Lidar In-space Technology Experiment (LITE) demonstrated the potential benefits of space lidar for studies of clouds and aerosols. PICASSO-CENA builds on this experience with a payload consisting of a two-wavelength polarization-sensitive lidar, an oxygen A-band spectrometer (ABS), an imaging infrared radiometer (IIR), and a wide field camera (WFC). Data from these instruments will be used to measure the vertical distributions of aerosols and clouds in the atmosphere, as well as optical and physical properties of aerosols and clouds which influence the Earth radiation budget. PICASSO-CENA will be flown in formation with the PM satellite of the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) to provide a comprehensive suite of coincident measurements of atmospheric state, aerosol and cloud optical properties, and radiative fluxes. The mission will address critical uncertainties iin the direct radiative forcing of aerosols and clouds as well as aerosol influences on cloud radiative properties and cloud-climate radiation feedbacks. PICASSO-CENA is planned for a three year mission, with a launch in early 2003. PICASSO-CENA is being developed within the framework of a collaboration between NASA and CNES.

  1. SIMULTANEOUS ESTIMATION OF PHOTOMETRIC REDSHIFTS AND SED PARAMETERS: IMPROVED TECHNIQUES AND A REALISTIC ERROR BUDGET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acquaviva, Viviana; Raichoor, Anand; Gawiser, Eric

    2015-01-01

    We seek to improve the accuracy of joint galaxy photometric redshift estimation and spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting. By simulating different sources of uncorrected systematic errors, we demonstrate that if the uncertainties in the photometric redshifts are estimated correctly, so are those on the other SED fitting parameters, such as stellar mass, stellar age, and dust reddening. Furthermore, we find that if the redshift uncertainties are over(under)-estimated, the uncertainties in SED parameters tend to be over(under)-estimated by similar amounts. These results hold even in the presence of severe systematics and provide, for the first time, a mechanism to validate the uncertainties on these parameters via comparison with spectroscopic redshifts. We propose a new technique (annealing) to re-calibrate the joint uncertainties in the photo-z and SED fitting parameters without compromising the performance of the SED fitting + photo-z estimation. This procedure provides a consistent estimation of the multi-dimensional probability distribution function in SED fitting + z parameter space, including all correlations. While the performance of joint SED fitting and photo-z estimation might be hindered by template incompleteness, we demonstrate that the latter is “flagged” by a large fraction of outliers in redshift, and that significant improvements can be achieved by using flexible stellar populations synthesis models and more realistic star formation histories. In all cases, we find that the median stellar age is better recovered than the time elapsed from the onset of star formation. Finally, we show that using a photometric redshift code such as EAZY to obtain redshift probability distributions that are then used as priors for SED fitting codes leads to only a modest bias in the SED fitting parameters and is thus a viable alternative to the simultaneous estimation of SED parameters and photometric redshifts

  2. HIV due to female sex work: regional and global estimates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annette Prüss-Ustün

    Full Text Available Female sex workers (FSWs are at high risk of HIV infection. Our objective was to determine the proportion of HIV prevalence in the general female adult population that is attributable to the occupational exposure of female sex work, due to unprotected sexual intercourse.Population attributable fractions of HIV prevalence due to female sex work were estimated for 2011. A systematic search was conducted to retrieve required input data from available sources. Data gaps of HIV prevalence in FSWs for 2011 were filled using multilevel modeling and multivariate linear regression. The fraction of HIV attributable to female sex work was estimated as the excess HIV burden in FSWs deducting the HIV burden in FSWs due to injecting drug use.An estimated fifteen percent of HIV in the general female adult population is attributable to (unsafe female sex work. The region with the highest attributable fraction is Sub Saharan Africa, but the burden is also substantial for the Caribbean, Latin America and South and Southeast Asia. We estimate 106,000 deaths from HIV are a result of female sex work globally, 98,000 of which occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. If HIV prevalence in other population groups originating from sexual contact with FSWs had been considered, the overall attributable burden would probably be much larger.Female sex work is an important contributor to HIV transmission and the global HIV burden. Effective HIV prevention measures exist and have been successfully targeted at key populations in many settings. These must be scaled up.FSWs suffer from high HIV burden and are a crucial core population for HIV transmission. Surveillance, prevention and treatment of HIV in FSWs should benefit both this often neglected vulnerable group and the general population.

  3. HIV Due to Female Sex Work: Regional and Global Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prüss-Ustün, Annette; Wolf, Jennyfer; Driscoll, Tim; Degenhardt, Louisa; Neira, Maria; Calleja, Jesus Maria Garcia

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Female sex workers (FSWs) are at high risk of HIV infection. Our objective was to determine the proportion of HIV prevalence in the general female adult population that is attributable to the occupational exposure of female sex work, due to unprotected sexual intercourse. Methods Population attributable fractions of HIV prevalence due to female sex work were estimated for 2011. A systematic search was conducted to retrieve required input data from available sources. Data gaps of HIV prevalence in FSWs for 2011 were filled using multilevel modeling and multivariate linear regression. The fraction of HIV attributable to female sex work was estimated as the excess HIV burden in FSWs deducting the HIV burden in FSWs due to injecting drug use. Results An estimated fifteen percent of HIV in the general female adult population is attributable to (unsafe) female sex work. The region with the highest attributable fraction is Sub Saharan Africa, but the burden is also substantial for the Caribbean, Latin America and South and Southeast Asia. We estimate 106,000 deaths from HIV are a result of female sex work globally, 98,000 of which occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. If HIV prevalence in other population groups originating from sexual contact with FSWs had been considered, the overall attributable burden would probably be much larger. Discussion Female sex work is an important contributor to HIV transmission and the global HIV burden. Effective HIV prevention measures exist and have been successfully targeted at key populations in many settings. These must be scaled up. Conclusion FSWs suffer from high HIV burden and are a crucial core population for HIV transmission. Surveillance, prevention and treatment of HIV in FSWs should benefit both this often neglected vulnerable group and the general population. PMID:23717432

  4. Estimation of global solar radiation by means of sunshine duration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luis, Mazorra Aguiar; Felipe, Diaz Reyes [Electrical Engineering Dept., Las Palmas de Gran Canaria Univ. (U.L.P.G.C.), Campus Univ. Tafira (Spain); Pilar, Navarro Rivero [Canary Islands Technological Inst. (I.T.C.), Gran Canaria (Spain)

    2008-07-01

    This paper analyses the relationship between global solar irradiation and sunshine duration with different estimation models for the island of Gran Canaria (Spain). These parameters were taken from six measurement stations around the Island, and selected for their reliability and the long period of time they covered. All data used in this paper were handed over by the Canary Islands Technological Institute (I.T.C.). As a first approach, it was decided to study the Angstrom lineal model. In order to improve the knowledge on solar resources, a Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) was created from all daily data. TMY shows differences between southern and northern locations, where Trade Winds generate clouds during the summer months. TMY resumes a data bank much longer than a year in duration, generating the characteristics for a year series of each location, for both irradiation and sunshine duration. To create the TMY, weighted means have been used to smooth high or low values. At first, Angstrom lineal model has been used to estimate solar global irradiation from sunshine duration values, using TMY. But the lineal model didn't reproduce satisfactory results when used to obtain global solar radiation from all daily sunshine duration data. For this reason, different models based in both parameters were used. The parameters estimation of this model was achieved both from TMY daily and monthly series and from all daily data for every location. Because of the weather stability all over the year in the Island, most of the daily data are concentrated in a close range, occasioning a deviation in the lineal equations. To avoid this deviation it was proposed to consider a limit condition data, taking into account values out of the main cloud of data. Additionally, different models were proposed (quadratic, cubic, logarithmic and exponential) to make a regression from all daily data. The best results were obtained with the exponential model proposed in this paper. The

  5. Estimation of dynamic energy budget parameters for the Mediterranean toothcarp (Aphanius fasciatus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinaldi, A.; Montalto, V.; Lika, K.; Sanfilippo, M.; Manganaro, A.; Sarà, G.

    2014-11-01

    Organisms adopt different sets of physiological, behavioural and morphological trade-offs in order to cope with natural environmental fluctuations. This has consequential rebounds on ecological processes and population dynamics. Such aspects become crucial for sex-dimorphic species, where sex-specific growth variation could mirror different tactics both in energy acquisition and investment between maximum female and male body size with cascading effects on population demography. To date, different approaches have been used in order to understand the causes of individual growth rate changes in ectotherm indeterminate growers, most of which failed. Here, we propose the use of a mechanistic model based on the Dynamic Energy Budget theory (DEB; Koojiman, 2010) to investigate potential differences in energy allocation strategies adopted by individuals of different genders with the Mediterranean toothcarp Aphanius fasciatus (Valenciennes, 1821) as the model species. We collected literature and field data in order to study differences in energy allocation strategies between females and males of the same species by generating projections of possible growth performances: (1) throughout their entire life span and (2) under a context of varying functional responses. Generally, the present exercise of simulations returned different patterns of growth performance among females and males of A. fasciatus, with the former being able to better optimize energetic trade-offs under optimal environmental conditions. The present DEB parameterization exercise represents an essential step towards developing a mechanistic approach to depict metabolic strategies, which are at the base of observed sexual differences, and how such differences may impair ultimate fitness at individual and, therefore, population levels.

  6. Budget Impact Analysis to Estimate the Cost Dynamics of Treating Refractory Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease With Radiofrequency Energy: a Payer Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, David; Scotti, Dennis J; Buck, Daniel; Triadafilopoulos, George

    2016-05-01

    A minimally invasive endoscopic treatment that utilizes radio-frequency energy (RFE) has received increased attention as an appropriate middle-ground approach in the treatment of refractory gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and as an alternative to complicated and invasive surgical procedures. The objective of this study was to develop a longitudinal budget impact analysis from the payer perspective to estimate the direct medical costs of treatment for the refractory GERD patient population and to estimate the budgetary impact of further extending the RFE treatment option to other target populations. A retrospective analysis of claims designed to assess the longitudinal costs and budget impact on payer expenditures associated with managing and treating GERD surgically (Nissen fundoplication [NF]), endoscopically (RFE), or medically was performed. Both Medicare and commercially insured claims databases were interrogated for such population-level analyses. At current adoption rates (less than 1% of procedures), RFE demonstrated overall cost savings ranging from 7.3% to 50.5% in the 12-month time period following the index procedure (inclusive of procedure costs) when compared to medical management and fundoplication across the commercial and Medicare patient populations. Increasing the total number of RFE procedures to 2% of total cases performed generated per-member, per-month (PMPM) savings of $0.28 in the Medicare population and $0.37 in the commercially insured population. Further increases yielded higher PMPM savings. Adding to the clinical importance of RFE in filling the gap between medical and surgical management, this economic analysis demonstrates to payers that the adoption of RFE can create notable savings to their plans when compared to surgery or medical management.

  7. A Global Estimate of Seafood Consumption by Coastal Indigenous Peoples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cisneros-Montemayor, Andrés M; Pauly, Daniel; Weatherdon, Lauren V; Ota, Yoshitaka

    2016-01-01

    Coastal Indigenous peoples rely on ocean resources and are highly vulnerable to ecosystem and economic change. Their challenges have been observed and recognized at local and regional scales, yet there are no global-scale analyses to inform international policies. We compile available data for over 1,900 coastal Indigenous communities around the world representing 27 million people across 87 countries. Based on available data at local and regional levels, we estimate a total global yearly seafood consumption of 2.1 million (1.5 million-2.8 million) metric tonnes by coastal Indigenous peoples, equal to around 2% of global yearly commercial fisheries catch. Results reflect the crucial role of seafood for these communities; on average, consumption per capita is 15 times higher than non-Indigenous country populations. These findings contribute to an urgently needed sense of scale to coastal Indigenous issues, and will hopefully prompt increased recognition and directed research regarding the marine knowledge and resource needs of Indigenous peoples. Marine resources are crucial to the continued existence of coastal Indigenous peoples, and their needs must be explicitly incorporated into management policies.

  8. Removal of Atmospheric Ethanol by Wet Deposition: A Global Flux Estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felix, J. D. D.; Willey, J. D.; Avery, B.; Thomas, R.; Mullaugh, K.; Kieber, R. J.; Mead, R. N.; Helms, J. R.; Campos, L.; Shimizu, M. S.; Guibbina, F.

    2017-12-01

    Global ethanol fuel consumption has increased exponentially over the last two decades and the US plans to double annual renewable fuel production in the next five years as required by the renewable fuel standard. Regardless of the technology or feedstock used to produce the renewable fuel, the primary end product will be ethanol. Increasing ethanol fuel consumption will have an impact on the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and increase atmospheric concentrations of the secondary pollutant peroxyacetyl nitrate as well a variety of VOCs with relatively high ozone reactivities (e.g. ethanol, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde). Despite these documented effects of ethanol emissions on atmospheric chemistry, current global atmospheric ethanol budget models have large uncertainties in the magnitude of ethanol sources and sinks. The presented work investigates the global wet deposition sink by providing the first estimate of the global wet deposition flux of ethanol (2.4 ± 1.6 Tg/yr) based on empirical wet deposition data (219 samples collected at 12 locations). This suggests the wet deposition sink removes between 6 and 17% of atmospheric ethanol annually. Concentrations of ethanol in marine wet deposition (25 ± 6 nM) were an order of magnitude less than in the majority of terrestrial deposition (345 ± 280 nM). Terrestrial deposition collected in locations impacted by high local sources of biofuel usage and locations downwind from ethanol distilleries were an order of magnitude higher in ethanol concentration (3090 ± 448 nM) compared to deposition collected in terrestrial locations not impacted by these sources. These results indicate that wet deposition of ethanol is heavily influenced by local sources and ethanol emission impacts on air quality may be more significant in highly populated areas. As established and developing countries continue to rapidly increase ethanol fuel consumption and subsequent emissions, understanding the magnitude of all ethanol sources and

  9. Estimation of the advection effects induced by surface heterogeneities in the surface energy budget

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cuxart, J.; Wrenger, B.; Martinez-Villagrasa, D.; Reuder, J.; Jonassen, M.O.; Jimenez, M.A.; Lothon, M.; Hartogensis, O.K.; Dunnermann, J.; Conangla, L.; Garai, A.

    2016-01-01

    The effect of terrain heterogeneities in one-point
    measurements is a continuous subject of discussion. Here
    we focus on the order of magnitude of the advection term
    in the equation of the evolution of temperature as generated
    by documented terrain heterogeneities and we estimate

  10. VAR—ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL ECONOMIC CRISIS IMPACT ON PUBLIC BUDGET AND UNEMPLOYMENT: EVIDENCE FROM THE ECONOMY OF THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nargiza Bakytovna Alymkulova

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The Global financial crisis hit the economy of the Kyrgyz Republic by the third wave of its transmission in the early of 2009. The article examines the impact of the Global financial economic crisis on the public budget and unemployment of the Kyrgyz Republic. We analyzed the transmission of the crisis on the public budget firstly and its effect on unemployment level by using the vector autoregression approach (VAR and quarterly data for 2005–2013 within the framework of IS-LM model for small open economies with floating exchange rate. There is an inverse relationship between the public budget and remittances inflow, liquidity level, volume of deposits, and exchange rate. As a result of the study, the fall in remittances inflows, liquidity level of the banking system, depreciation of the national currency lead to an increase in public revenue. Therefore, the increase in public spending during the crisis period, with the aim of unemployment reduction, may be considered as a crucial policy. The study result allows to policy-makers to exactly know what channels of transmission mechanism transfer the Global crisis on the public budget and its effect on unemployment level of the republic in order to undertake anticrisis macroeconomic policy. The final result of the study indicates that the increase of unemployment level by 1 % requires the increase of public spending by 0.63 %.

  11. Global estimates of evapotranspiration and gross primary production based on MODIS and global meteorology data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, W.; Liu, S.; Yu, G.; Bonnefond, J.-M.; Chen, J.; Davis, K.; Desai, A.R.; Goldstein, Allen H.; Gianelle, D.; Rossi, F.; Suyker, A.E.; Verma, S.B.

    2010-01-01

    The simulation of gross primary production (GPP) at various spatial and temporal scales remains a major challenge for quantifying the global carbon cycle. We developed a light use efficiency model, called EC-LUE, driven by only four variables: normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), air temperature, and the Bowen ratio of sensible to latent heat flux. The EC-LUE model may have the most potential to adequately address the spatial and temporal dynamics of GPP because its parameters (i.e., the potential light use efficiency and optimal plant growth temperature) are invariant across the various land cover types. However, the application of the previous EC-LUE model was hampered by poor prediction of Bowen ratio at the large spatial scale. In this study, we substituted the Bowen ratio with the ratio of evapotranspiration (ET) to net radiation, and revised the RS-PM (Remote Sensing-Penman Monteith) model for quantifying ET. Fifty-four eddy covariance towers, including various ecosystem types, were selected to calibrate and validate the revised RS-PM and EC-LUE models. The revised RS-PM model explained 82% and 68% of the observed variations of ET for all the calibration and validation sites, respectively. Using estimated ET as input, the EC-LUE model performed well in calibration and validation sites, explaining 75% and 61% of the observed GPP variation for calibration and validation sites respectively.Global patterns of ET and GPP at a spatial resolution of 0.5° latitude by 0.6° longitude during the years 2000–2003 were determined using the global MERRA dataset (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The global estimates of ET and GPP agreed well with the other global models from the literature, with the highest ET and GPP over tropical forests and the lowest values in dry and high latitude areas. However, comparisons with observed

  12. Providing low-budget estimations of carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions in agricultural wetlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lloyd, Colin R; Rebelo, Lisa-Maria; Max Finlayson, C

    2013-01-01

    The conversion of wetlands to agriculture through drainage and flooding, and the burning of wetland areas for agriculture have important implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) production and changing carbon stocks. However, the estimation of net GHG changes from mitigation practices in agricultural wetlands is complex compared to dryland crops. Agricultural wetlands have more complicated carbon and nitrogen cycles with both above- and below-ground processes and export of carbon via vertical and horizontal movement of water through the wetland. This letter reviews current research methodologies in estimating greenhouse gas production and provides guidance on the provision of robust estimates of carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions in agricultural wetlands through the use of low cost reliable and sustainable measurement, modelling and remote sensing applications. The guidance is highly applicable to, and aimed at, wetlands such as those in the tropics and sub-tropics, where complex research infrastructure may not exist, or agricultural wetlands located in remote regions, where frequent visits by monitoring scientists prove difficult. In conclusion, the proposed measurement-modelling approach provides guidance on an affordable solution for mitigation and for investigating the consequences of wetland agricultural practice on GHG production, ecological resilience and possible changes to agricultural yields, variety choice and farming practice. (letter)

  13. Ionosphere-thermosphere energy budgets for the ICME storms of March 2013 and 2015 estimated with GITM and observational proxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Meng, X.; Mannucci, A. J.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Hunt, L. A.; Lu, G.

    2017-09-01

    The ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) energy partitioning for the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) storms of 16-19 March 2013 and 2015 is estimated with the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM), empirical models and proxies derived from in situ measurements. We focus on auroral heating, Joule heating, and thermospheric cooling. Solar wind data, F10.7, OVATION Prime model and the Weimer 2005 model are used to drive GITM from above. Thermospheric nitric oxide and carbon dioxide cooling emission powers and fluxes are estimated from TIMED/SABER measurements. Assimilative mapping of ionospheric electrodynamics (AMIE) estimations of hemispheric power and Joule heating are presented, based on data from global magnetometers, the AMPERE magnetic field data, SSUSI auroral images, and the SuperDARN radar network. Modeled Joule heating and auroral heating of the IT system are mostly controlled by external driving in the March 2013 and 2015 storms, while NO cooling persists into the storm recovery phase. The total heating in the model is about 1000 GW to 3000 GW. Additionally, we intercompare contributions in selected energy channels for five coronal mass ejection-type storms modeled with GITM. Modeled auroral heating shows reasonable agreement with AMIE hemispheric power and is higher than other observational proxies. Joule heating and infrared cooling are likely underestimated in GITM. We discuss challenges and discrepancies in estimating and global modeling of the IT energy partitioning, especially Joule heating, during geomagnetic storms.

  14. Estimation of global soil respiration by accounting for land-use changes derived from remote sensing data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adachi, Minaco; Ito, Akihiko; Yonemura, Seiichiro; Takeuchi, Wataru

    2017-09-15

    Soil respiration is one of the largest carbon fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems. Estimating global soil respiration is difficult because of its high spatiotemporal variability and sensitivity to land-use change. Satellite monitoring provides useful data for estimating the global carbon budget, but few studies have estimated global soil respiration using satellite data. We provide preliminary insights into the estimation of global soil respiration in 2001 and 2009 using empirically derived soil temperature equations for 17 ecosystems obtained by field studies, as well as MODIS climate data and land-use maps at a 4-km resolution. The daytime surface temperature from winter to early summer based on the MODIS data tended to be higher than the field-observed soil temperatures in subarctic and temperate ecosystems. The estimated global soil respiration was 94.8 and 93.8 Pg C yr -1 in 2001 and 2009, respectively. However, the MODIS land-use maps had insufficient spatial resolution to evaluate the effect of land-use change on soil respiration. The spatial variation of soil respiration (Q 10 ) values was higher but its spatial variation was lower in high-latitude areas than in other areas. However, Q 10 in tropical areas was more variable and was not accurately estimated (the values were >7.5 or soil respiration in tropical ecosystems. To solve these problems, it will be necessary to validate our results using a combination of remote sensing data at higher spatial resolution and field observations for many different ecosystems, and it will be necessary to account for the effects of more soil factors in the predictive equations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Global fire emissions estimates during 1997–2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. R. van der Werf

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate, land use, and other anthropogenic and natural drivers have the potential to influence fire dynamics in many regions. To develop a mechanistic understanding of the changing role of these drivers and their impact on atmospheric composition, long-term fire records are needed that fuse information from different satellite and in situ data streams. Here we describe the fourth version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED and quantify global fire emissions patterns during 1997–2016. The modeling system, based on the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA biogeochemical model, has several modifications from the previous version and uses higher quality input datasets. Significant upgrades include (1 new burned area estimates with contributions from small fires, (2 a revised fuel consumption parameterization optimized using field observations, (3 modifications that improve the representation of fuel consumption in frequently burning landscapes, and (4 fire severity estimates that better represent continental differences in burning processes across boreal regions of North America and Eurasia. The new version has a higher spatial resolution (0.25° and uses a different set of emission factors that separately resolves trace gas and aerosol emissions from temperate and boreal forest ecosystems. Global mean carbon emissions using the burned area dataset with small fires (GFED4s were 2.2  ×  1015 grams of carbon per year (Pg C yr−1 during 1997–2016, with a maximum in 1997 (3.0 Pg C yr−1 and minimum in 2013 (1.8 Pg C yr−1. These estimates were 11 % higher than our previous estimates (GFED3 during 1997–2011, when the two datasets overlapped. This net increase was the result of a substantial increase in burned area (37 %, mostly due to the inclusion of small fires, and a modest decrease in mean fuel consumption (−19 % to better match estimates from field studies, primarily in savannas and

  16. Estimation of clear sky hourly global solar radiation in Iraq

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Jumaily, Kais J.; Al-Zuhairi, Munya F.; Mahdi, Zahraa S. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College of Science, Al-Mustansiriyah University, Baghdad (Iraq)

    2012-07-01

    The availability of hourly solar radiation data is very important for applications utilizing solar energy and for climate and environmental aspects. The aim of this work is to use a simple model for estimating hourly global solar radiation under clear sky condition in Iraq. Calculations were compared with measurements obtained from local station in Baghdad city and from Meteosat satellite data for different locations in Iraq. The statistical test methods of the mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE) and t-test were used to evaluate the performance of the model. Results indicated that a fairly good agreement exists between calculated and measured values for all locations in Iraq. Since the model is independent of any meteorological variable, it would be of a practical use for rural areas where no meteorological data are available.

  17. The "covariation method" for estimating the parameters of the standard Dynamic Energy Budget model II: Properties and preliminary patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lika, Konstadia; Kearney, Michael R.; Kooijman, Sebastiaan A. L. M.

    2011-11-01

    The covariation method for estimating the parameters of the standard Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model provides a single-step method of accessing all the core DEB parameters from commonly available empirical data. In this study, we assess the robustness of this parameter estimation procedure and analyse the role of pseudo-data using elasticity coefficients. In particular, we compare the performance of Maximum Likelihood (ML) vs. Weighted Least Squares (WLS) approaches and find that the two approaches tend to converge in performance as the number of uni-variate data sets increases, but that WLS is more robust when data sets comprise single points (zero-variate data). The efficiency of the approach is shown to be high, and the prior parameter estimates (pseudo-data) have very little influence if the real data contain information about the parameter values. For instance, the effects of the pseudo-value for the allocation fraction κ is reduced when there is information for both growth and reproduction, that for the energy conductance is reduced when information on age at birth and puberty is given, and the effects of the pseudo-value for the maturity maintenance rate coefficient are insignificant. The estimation of some parameters (e.g., the zoom factor and the shape coefficient) requires little information, while that of others (e.g., maturity maintenance rate, puberty threshold and reproduction efficiency) require data at several food levels. The generality of the standard DEB model, in combination with the estimation of all of its parameters, allows comparison of species on the basis of parameter values. We discuss a number of preliminary patterns emerging from the present collection of parameter estimates across a wide variety of taxa. We make the observation that the estimated value of the fraction κ of mobilised reserve that is allocated to soma is far away from the value that maximises reproduction. We recognise this as the reason why two very different

  18. Global health worker salary estimates: an econometric analysis of global earnings data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serje, Juliana; Bertram, Melanie Y; Brindley, Callum; Lauer, Jeremy A

    2018-01-01

    Human resources are consistently cited as a leading contributor to health care costs; however the availability of internationally comparable data on health worker earnings for all countries is a challenge for estimating the costs of health care services. This paper describes an econometric model using cross sectional earnings data from the International Labour Organization (ILO) that the World Health Organizations (WHO)-Choosing Interventions that are Cost-effective programme (CHOICE) has used to prepare estimates of health worker earnings (in 2010 USD) for all WHO member states. The ILO data contained 324 observations of earnings data across 4 skill levels for 193 countries. Using this data, along with the assumption that data were missing not at random, we used a Heckman two stage selection model to estimate earning data for each of the 4 skill levels for all WHO member states. It was possible to develop a prediction model for health worker earnings for all countries for which GDP data was available. Health worker earnings vary both within country due to skill level, as well as across countries. As a multiple of GDP per capita, earnings show a negative correlation with GDP-that is lower income countries pay their health workers relatively more than higher income countries. Limited data on health worker earnings is a limiting factor in estimating the costs of global health programmes. It is hoped that these estimates will support robust health care intervention costings and projections of resources needs over the Sustainable Development Goal period.

  19. Global estimates of high-level brain drain and deficit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ioannidis, John P A

    2004-06-01

    Brain drain, the international migration of scientists in search of better opportunities, has been a long-standing concern, but quantitative measurements are uncommon and limited to specific countries or disciplines. We need to understand brain drain at a global level and estimate the extent to which scientists born in countries with low opportunities never realize their potential. Data on 1523 of the most highly cited scientists for 1981-1999 are analyzed. Overall, 31.9% of these scientists did not reside in the country where they were born (range 18.1-54.6% across 21 different scientific fields). There was great variability across developed countries in the proportions of foreign-born resident scientists and emigrating scientists. Countries without a critical mass of native scientists lost most scientists to migration. This loss occurred in both developed and developing countries. Adjusting for population and using the U.S. as reference, the number of highly cited native-born scientists was at least 75% of the expected number in only 8 countries other than the U.S. It is estimated that approximately 94% of the expected top scientists worldwide have not been able to materialize themselves due to various adverse conditions. Scientific deficit is only likely to help perpetuate these adverse conditions.

  20. Leishmaniasis worldwide and global estimates of its incidence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Alvar

    Full Text Available As part of a World Health Organization-led effort to update the empirical evidence base for the leishmaniases, national experts provided leishmaniasis case data for the last 5 years and information regarding treatment and control in their respective countries and a comprehensive literature review was conducted covering publications on leishmaniasis in 98 countries and three territories (see 'Leishmaniasis Country Profiles Text S1, S2, S3, S4, S5, S6, S7, S8, S9, S10, S11, S12, S13, S14, S15, S16, S17, S18, S19, S20, S21, S22, S23, S24, S25, S26, S27, S28, S29, S30, S31, S32, S33, S34, S35, S36, S37, S38, S39, S40, S41, S42, S43, S44, S45, S46, S47, S48, S49, S50, S51, S52, S53, S54, S55, S56, S57, S58, S59, S60, S61, S62, S63, S64, S65, S66, S67, S68, S69, S70, S71, S72, S73, S74, S75, S76, S77, S78, S79, S80, S81, S82, S83, S84, S85, S86, S87, S88, S89, S90, S91, S92, S93, S94, S95, S96, S97, S98, S99, S100, S101'. Additional information was collated during meetings conducted at WHO regional level between 2007 and 2011. Two questionnaires regarding epidemiology and drug access were completed by experts and national program managers. Visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence ranges were estimated by country and epidemiological region based on reported incidence, underreporting rates if available, and the judgment of national and international experts. Based on these estimates, approximately 0.2 to 0.4 cases and 0.7 to 1.2 million VL and CL cases, respectively, occur each year. More than 90% of global VL cases occur in six countries: India, Bangladesh, Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia and Brazil. Cutaneous leishmaniasis is more widely distributed, with about one-third of cases occurring in each of three epidemiological regions, the Americas, the Mediterranean basin, and western Asia from the Middle East to Central Asia. The ten countries with the highest estimated case counts, Afghanistan, Algeria, Colombia, Brazil, Iran, Syria, Ethiopia, North

  1. Estimating the impact of petroleum substances on survival in ealry life stages of cod (Gadus morhua) using the Dynamic Energy Budget theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klok, T.C.; Nordtug, T.; Tamis, J.E.

    2014-01-01

    To estimate the impact of accidental oil-spills on cod fisheries a model framework is developed in which a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model is applied to assess mortality caused by petroleum substances in early life stages. In this paper we report on a literature search and DEB analyses, aiming for

  2. On the accuracy of the simple ocean data assimilation analysis for estimating heat Budgets of the Near-Surface Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Shenoi, S.S.C.; Shankar, D.; Shetye, S.R.

    The accuracy of data from the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) model for estimating the heat budget of the upper ocean is tested in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. SODA is able to reproduce the changes in heat content when...

  3. Techniques for the estimation of global irradiation from sunshine duration and global irradiation estimation for Italian locations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jain, P.C.

    1984-04-01

    Angstrom equation H=H 0 (a+bS/S 0 ) has been fitted using the least-square method to the global irradiation and the sunshine duration data of 31 Italian locations for the duration 1965-1974. Three more linear equations: i) the equation H'=H 0 (a+bS/S 0 ), obtained by incorporating the effect of the multiple reflections between the earth's surface and the atmosphere, ii) the equation H=H 0 (a+bS/S' 0 ), obtained by incorporating the effect of not burning of the sunshine recorder chart when the elevation of the sun is less than 5 deg., and iii) the equation H'=H 0 (a+bS/S' 0 ), obtained by incorporating both the above effects simultaneously, have also each been fitted to the same data. Good correlation with correlation coefficients around 0.9 or more are obtained for most of the locations with all the four equations. Substantial spatial scatter is obtained in the values of the regression parameters. The use of any of the three latter equations does not result in any advantage over that of the simpler Angstrom equation; it neither results in a decrease in the spatial scatter in the values of the regression parameters nor does it yield better correlation. The computed values of the regression parameters in the Angstrom equation yield estimates of the global irradiation that are on the average within +- 4% of the measured values for most of the locations. (author)

  4. An automated performance budget estimator: a process for use in instrumentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laporte, Philippe; Schnetler, Hermine; Rees, Phil

    2016-08-01

    Current day astronomy projects continue to increase in size and are increasingly becoming more complex, regardless of the wavelength domain, while risks in terms of safety, cost and operability have to be reduced to ensure an affordable total cost of ownership. All of these drivers have to be considered carefully during the development process of an astronomy project at the same time as there is a big drive to shorten the development life-cycle. From the systems engineering point of view, this evolution is a significant challenge. Big instruments imply management of interfaces within large consortia and dealing with tight design phase schedules which necessitate efficient and rapid interactions between all the stakeholders to firstly ensure that the system is defined correctly and secondly that the designs will meet all the requirements. It is essential that team members respond quickly such that the time available for the design team is maximised. In this context, performance prediction tools can be very helpful during the concept phase of a project to help selecting the best design solution. In the first section of this paper we present the development of such a prediction tool that can be used by the system engineer to determine the overall performance of the system and to evaluate the impact on the science based on the proposed design. This tool can also be used in "what-if" design analysis to assess the impact on the overall performance of the system based on the simulated numbers calculated by the automated system performance prediction tool. Having such a tool available from the beginning of a project can allow firstly for a faster turn-around between the design engineers and the systems engineer and secondly, between the systems engineer and the instrument scientist. Following the first section we described the process for constructing a performance estimator tool, followed by describing three projects in which such a tool has been utilised to illustrate

  5. Integrated rice-duck farming decreases global warming potential and increases net ecosystem economic budget in central China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheng, Feng; Cao, Cou-Gui; Li, Cheng-Fang

    2018-05-31

    Over the past decades, many attempts have been made to assess the effects of integrated rice-duck farming on greenhouse gas emissions, use efficient of energy, soil fertility, and economic significance. However, very few studies have been focused on the effects of the farming on net ecosystem economic budget (NEEB). Here, a 2-year field experiment was conducted to comprehensively investigate the effects of ducks raised in paddy fields on CH 4 and N 2 O emissions, global warming potential (GWP), rice grain yield, and NEEB in central China. The experiment included two treatments: integrated rice-duck farming (RD) and conventional rice farming (R). The introduction of ducks into the paddy fields markedly increased the rice grain yield due to enhanced tiller number and root bleeding rate. RD treatment significantly elevated the N 2 O emissions (p < 0.05) but decreased CH 4 emissions (p < 0.05) during rice growing seasons compared with R treatment. Analysis of GWP based on CH 4 and N 2 O emissions showed that compared with R treatment, RD treatment significantly decreased the GWP by 28.1 and 28.0% and reduced the greenhouse gas intensity by 30.6 and 29.8% in 2009 and 2010, respectively. In addition, RD treatment increased NEEB by 40.8 and 39.7% respectively in 2009 and 2010 relative to R treatment. Taken together, our results suggest that the integrated rice-duck farming system is an effective strategy to optimize the economic and environmental benefits of paddy fields in central China.

  6. Forecasting the future reimbursement system of Korean National Health Insurance: a contemplation focusing on global budget and Neo-KDRG-based payment systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yang-Kyun

    2012-05-01

    With the adoption of national health insurance in 1977, Korea has been utilizing fee-for-service payment with contract-based healthcare reimbursement system in 2000. Under the system, fee-for-service reimbursement has been accused of augmenting national healthcare expenditure by excessively increasing service volume. The researcher examined in this paper two major alternatives including diagnosis related group-based payment and global budget to contemplate the future of reimbursement system of Korean national health insurance. Various literature and preceding studies on pilot project and actual implementation of Neo-KDRG were reviewed. As a result, DRG-based payment was effective for healthcare cost control but low in administrative efficiency. Global budget may be adequate for cost control and improving the quality of healthcare and administrative efficiency. However, many healthcare providers disagree that excess care arising from fee-for-service payment alone has led to financial deterioration of national health insurance and healthcare institutions should take responsibility with global budget payment as an appropriate solution. Dissimilar payment systems may be applied to different types of institutions to reflect their unique attributes, and this process can be achieved step-by-step. Developing public sphere among the stakeholders and striving for consensus shall be kept as collateral to attain the desirable reimbursement system in the future.

  7. Estimates of direct biological transport of radioactive waste in the deep sea with special reference to organic carbon budgets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, G.T.; Shepherd, J.; Needler, G.; Hargrave, B.; Marietta, M.

    1986-01-01

    Calculations can be made for the maximum theoretical transport of pollutants such as radionuclides by movement of organisms out of a deep-sea benthic boundary layer dump site based on a presumption of a steady state organic carbon budget and estimated biological concentration factors. A calculated flux rate depends on the difference between a limiting input of organic matter and that carbon used by the biota or accumulating in the sediment. On average, the potential biological mass transport is low compared to physical transport. Exceptions to this generalization are possible in the far field after spatial gradients are obliterated or if natural mass migrations or periodic spawning concentrations occur in the near field. Biologically mediated fluxes of contaminants due to mixing of sediments by bioturbation or vertical flux due to scavenging by sinking particles are significant for movements of pollutants to and from sediments. These pathways contribute to the direct input of contaminants into food webs which may contain harvestable species. These fluxes are unimportant for mass transfers in the ocean but they determine the exposure of critical groups to contaminants

  8. Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppick, Andrew; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Stein, Michael L.

    2017-06-01

    Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to de-emphasize physical and statistical assumptions: examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for internal variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. However, given a limited data record and the presence of internal variability, estimating radiatively forced temperature trends in the historical record necessarily requires some assumptions. Ostensibly empirical methods can also involve an inherent conflict in assumptions: they require data records that are short enough for naive trend models to be applicable, but long enough for long-timescale internal variability to be accounted for. In the context of global mean temperatures, empirical methods that appear to de-emphasize assumptions can therefore produce misleading inferences, because the trend over the twentieth century is complex and the scale of temporal correlation is long relative to the length of the data record. We illustrate here how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable trend estimates and can allow for a wider array of questions to be addressed. In particular, the model allows one to distinguish, within a single statistical framework, between uncertainties in the shorter-term vs. longer-term response to radiative forcing, with implications not only on historical trends but also on uncertainties in future projections. We also investigate the consequence on inferred uncertainties of the choice of a statistical description of internal variability. While nonparametric methods may seem to avoid making explicit assumptions, we demonstrate how even misspecified parametric statistical methods, if attuned to the

  9. Budget Options

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2000-01-01

    This volume-part of the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO's) annual report to the House and Senate Committees on the Budget-is intended to help inform policymakers about options for the federal budget...

  10. The effects of global warming on fisheries: Simulation estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos A. Medel

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops two fisheries models in order to estimate the effect of global warming (GW on firm value. GW is defined as an increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s surface as a result of emissions. It is assumed that (i GW exists, and (ii higher temperatures negatively affect biomass. CO2 The literature on biology and GW supporting these two crucial assumptions is reviewed. The main argument presented is that temperature increase has two effects on biomass, both of which have an impact on firm value. First, higher temperatures cause biomass to oscillate. To measure the effect of biomass oscillation on firm value the model in [1] is modified to include water temperature as a variable. The results indicate that a 1 to 20% variation in biomass causes firm value to fall from 6 to 44%, respectively. Second, higher temperatures reduce biomass, and a modification of the model in [2] reveals that an increase in temperature anomaly between +1 and +8°C causes fishing firm value to decrease by 8 to 10%.

  11. Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate; Laboratory Implementation and Current Global Status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, W Greg; Jones, Graham R D

    2018-01-01

    In 2002, the Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative guidelines for identifying and treating CKD recommended that clinical laboratories report estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) with every creatinine result to assist clinical practitioners to identify people with early-stage CKD. At that time, the original Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation based on serum creatinine measurements was recommended for calculating eGFR. Because the MDRD Study equation was developed using a nonstandardized creatinine method, a Laboratory Working Group of the National Kidney Disease Education program was formed and implemented standardized calibration traceability for all creatinine methods from global manufacturers by approximately 2010. A modified MDRD Study equation for use with standardized creatinine was developed. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration developed a new equation in 2009 that was more accurate than the MDRD Study equation at values above 60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 . As of 2017, reporting eGFR with creatinine is almost universal in many countries. A reference system for cystatin C became available in 2010, and manufacturers are in the process to standardize cystatin C assays. Equations for eGFR based on standardized cystatin C alone and with creatinine are now available from the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration and other groups. Copyright © 2017 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Estimated impact of global population growth on future wilderness extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumont, E.

    2012-06-01

    Wilderness areas in the world are threatened by the environmental impacts of the growing global human population. This study estimates the impact of birth rate on the future surface area of biodiverse wilderness and on the proportion of this area without major extinctions. The following four drivers are considered: human population growth (1), agricultural efficiency (2), groundwater drawdown by irrigation (3), and non-agricultural space used by humans (buildings, gardens, roads, etc.) (4). This study indicates that the surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land will reduce with about 5.4% between 2012 and 2050. Further, it indicates that the biodiverse land without major extinctions will reduce with about 10.5%. These percentages are based on a commonly used population trajectory which assumes that birth rates across the globe will reduce in a similar way as has occurred in the past in many developed countries. Future birth rate is however very uncertain. Plausible future birth rates lower than the expected rates lead to much smaller reductions in surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land (0.7% as opposed to 5.4%), and a reduction in the biodiverse land without major extinctions of about 5.6% (as opposed to 10.5%). This indicates that birth rate is an important factor influencing the quality and quantity of wilderness remaining in the future.

  13. Global lateral transfer and evasion of C in freshwater systems - a revised high-resolution budget analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauerwald, Ronny; Laruelle, Goulven; Hartmann, Jens; Ciais, Philippe; Regnier, Pierre

    2016-04-01

    The net CO2 evasion from rivers (FCO2) is an important component when quantifying the lateral displacement of biologically fixed carbon from terrestrial systems and wetlands through the river network. Here, we present global maps of FCO2 from stream orders 3 and higher at 0.5° resolution (Lauerwald et al., 2015 - GBC). This resolution is comparable to that of Earth System Model simulations of vegetation and soil C dynamics and is also compatible with GlobalNEWS simulations of fluvial DOC and POC exports to the sea (Mayorga et al., 2010 - Environmental Modeling and Software). A GIS based approach was used to derive an empirical pCO2 model trained on data from 1182 sampling locations. While only few sampling data are available for Asia and Africa, the sampling locations cover the full spectrum from high to low latitudes. The empirical model predicts pCO2 from terrestrial net primary production, population density, and slope gradient within the river catchment and mean air temperature at the sampling location (r² = 0.47). The predicted pCO2 map was combined with spatially explicit estimates of stream surface area and gas exchange velocity calculated from published empirical equations and data sets to derive the FCO2 map. We used Monte Carlo simulations to assess the uncertainties of our estimates. At the global scale, we estimate an average river pCO2 of 2400 (2019-2826) μatm and a FCO2 of 650 (483-846) Tg C yr-1 (5th and 95th percentiles of confidence interval). Our maps reveal strong latitudinal gradients in pCO2, stream surface area, and FCO2. The zone between 10°N and 10°S contributes about half of the global CO2 evasion. Combining riverine FCO2 with the estimated fluvial DOC and POC exports from GlobalNEWS and FCO2 from lakes (downscaled from Raymond et al. 2013 - Nature), the total lateral transfer of biologically fixed C on land and in wetlands adds up to 1.3 Pg C yr-1. This estimate is likely conservative because CO2 evasion from smaller streams is not

  14. Final deglaciation of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet and implications for the Holocene global sea-level budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuzzone, Joshua K.; Clark, Peter U.; Carlson, Anders E.; Ullman, David J.; Rinterknecht, Vincent R.; Milne, Glenn A.; Lunkka, Juha-Pekka; Wohlfarth, Barbara; Marcott, Shaun A.; Caffee, Marc

    2016-08-01

    The last deglaciation of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet (SIS) from ∼ 21, 000 to 13,000 yr ago is well-constrained by several hundred 10Be and 14C ages. The subsequent retreat history, however, is established primarily from minimum-limiting 14C ages and incomplete Baltic-Sea varve records, leaving a substantial fraction of final SIS retreat history poorly constrained. Here we develop a high-resolution chronology for the final deglaciation of the SIS based on 79 10Be cosmogenic exposure dates sampled along three transects spanning southern to northern Sweden and Finland. Combining this new chronology with existing 10Be ages on deglaciation since the Last Glacial Maximum shows that rates of SIS margin retreat were strongly influenced by deglacial millennial-scale climate variability and its effect on surface mass balance, with regional modulation of retreat associated with dynamical controls. Ice-volume estimates constrained by our new chronology suggest that the SIS contributed ∼ 8 m sea-level equivalent to global sea-level rise between ∼14.5 ka and 10 ka. Final deglaciation was largely complete by ∼10.5 ka, with highest rates of sea-level rise occurring during the Bølling-Allerød, a 50% decrease during the Younger Dryas, and a rapid increase during the early Holocene. Combining our SIS volume estimates with estimated contributions from other remaining Northern Hemisphere ice sheets suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) contributed 14.4 ± 5.9 m to global sea-level rise since ∼13 ka. This new constraint supports those studies that indicate that an ice volume of 15 m or more of equivalent sea-level rise was lost from the AIS during the last deglaciation.

  15. Estimating the daily global solar radiation spatial distribution from diurnal temperature ranges over the Tibetan Plateau in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pan, Tao; Wu, Shaohong; Dai, Erfu; Liu, Yujie

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Bristow–Campbell model was calibrated and validated over the Tibetan Plateau. ► Develop a simple method to rasterise the daily global solar radiation and get gridded information. ► The daily global solar radiation spatial distribution over the Tibetan Plateau was estimated. - Abstract: Daily global solar radiation is fundamental to most ecological and biophysical processes because it plays a key role in the local and global energy budget. However, gridded information about the spatial distribution of solar radiation is limited. This study aims to parameterise the Bristow–Campbell model for the daily global solar radiation estimation in the Tibetan Plateau and propose a method to rasterise the daily global solar radiation. Observed daily solar radiation and diurnal temperature data from eleven stations over the Tibetan Plateau during 1971–2010 were used to calibrate and validate the Bristow–Campbell radiation model. The extra-terrestrial radiation and clear sky atmospheric transmittance were calculated on a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform. Results show that the Bristow–Campbell model performs well after adjusting the parameters, the average Pearson’s correlation coefficients (r), Nash–Sutcliffe equation (NSE), ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR), and root mean-square error (RMSE) of 11 stations are 0.85, 2.81 MJ m −2 day −1 , 0.3 and 0.77 respectively. Gridded maximum and minimum average temperature data were obtained using Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) and validated by the Chinese Ecosystem Research Network (CERN) stations’ data. The spatial daily global solar radiation distribution pattern was estimated and analysed by combining the solar radiation model (Bristow–Campbell model) and meteorological interpolation model (PRISM). Based on the overall results, it can be concluded that a calibrated Bristow–Campbell performs well

  16. An estimate of the terrestrial carbon budget of Russia using inventory-based, eddy covariance and inversion methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Dolman

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available We determine the net land to atmosphere flux of carbon in Russia, including Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, using inventory-based, eddy covariance, and inversion methods. Our high boundary estimate is −342 Tg C yr−1 from the eddy covariance method, and this is close to the upper bounds of the inventory-based Land Ecosystem Assessment and inverse models estimates. A lower boundary estimate is provided at −1350 Tg C yr−1 from the inversion models. The average of the three methods is −613.5 Tg C yr−1. The methane emission is estimated separately at 41.4 Tg C yr−1.

    These three methods agree well within their respective error bounds. There is thus good consistency between bottom-up and top-down methods. The forests of Russia primarily cause the net atmosphere to land flux (−692 Tg C yr−1 from the LEA. It remains however remarkable that the three methods provide such close estimates (−615, −662, −554 Tg C yr–1 for net biome production (NBP, given the inherent uncertainties in all of the approaches. The lack of recent forest inventories, the few eddy covariance sites and associated uncertainty with upscaling and undersampling of concentrations for the inversions are among the prime causes of the uncertainty. The dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs suggest a much lower uptake at −91 Tg C yr−1, and we argue that this is caused by a high estimate of heterotrophic respiration compared to other methods.

  17. Evaluation of black carbon estimations in global aerosol models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhao

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate black carbon (BC model predictions from the AeroCom model intercomparison project by considering the diversity among year 2000 model simulations and comparing model predictions with available measurements. These model-measurement intercomparisons include BC surface and aircraft concentrations, aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD retrievals from AERONET and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI and BC column estimations based on AERONET. In regions other than Asia, most models are biased high compared to surface concentration measurements. However compared with (column AAOD or BC burden retreivals, the models are generally biased low. The average ratio of model to retrieved AAOD is less than 0.7 in South American and 0.6 in African biomass burning regions; both of these regions lack surface concentration measurements. In Asia the average model to observed ratio is 0.7 for AAOD and 0.5 for BC surface concentrations. Compared with aircraft measurements over the Americas at latitudes between 0 and 50N, the average model is a factor of 8 larger than observed, and most models exceed the measured BC standard deviation in the mid to upper troposphere. At higher latitudes the average model to aircraft BC ratio is 0.4 and models underestimate the observed BC loading in the lower and middle troposphere associated with springtime Arctic haze. Low model bias for AAOD but overestimation of surface and upper atmospheric BC concentrations at lower latitudes suggests that most models are underestimating BC absorption and should improve estimates for refractive index, particle size, and optical effects of BC coating. Retrieval uncertainties and/or differences with model diagnostic treatment may also contribute to the model-measurement disparity. Largest AeroCom model diversity occurred in northern Eurasia and the remote Arctic, regions influenced by anthropogenic sources. Changing emissions, aging, removal, or optical properties within a single model

  18. Hardware architecture design of a fast global motion estimation method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Chaobing; Sang, Hongshi; Shen, Xubang

    2015-12-01

    VLSI implementation of gradient-based global motion estimation (GME) faces two main challenges: irregular data access and high off-chip memory bandwidth requirement. We previously proposed a fast GME method that reduces computational complexity by choosing certain number of small patches containing corners and using them in a gradient-based framework. A hardware architecture is designed to implement this method and further reduce off-chip memory bandwidth requirement. On-chip memories are used to store coordinates of the corners and template patches, while the Gaussian pyramids of both the template and reference frame are stored in off-chip SDRAMs. By performing geometric transform only on the coordinates of the center pixel of a 3-by-3 patch in the template image, a 5-by-5 area containing the warped 3-by-3 patch in the reference image is extracted from the SDRAMs by burst read. Patched-based and burst mode data access helps to keep the off-chip memory bandwidth requirement at the minimum. Although patch size varies at different pyramid level, all patches are processed in term of 3x3 patches, so the utilization of the patch-processing circuit reaches 100%. FPGA implementation results show that the design utilizes 24,080 bits on-chip memory and for a sequence with resolution of 352x288 and frequency of 60Hz, the off-chip bandwidth requirement is only 3.96Mbyte/s, compared with 243.84Mbyte/s of the original gradient-based GME method. This design can be used in applications like video codec, video stabilization, and super-resolution, where real-time GME is a necessity and minimum memory bandwidth requirement is appreciated.

  19. Operational budgeting using fuzzy goal programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Mohammadi

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Having an efficient budget normally has different advantages such as measuring the performance of various organizations, setting appropriate targets and promoting managers based on their achievements. However, any budgeting planning requires prediction of different cost components. There are various methods for budgeting planning such as incremental budgeting, program budgeting, zero based budgeting and performance budgeting. In this paper, we present a fuzzy goal programming to estimate operational budget. The proposed model uses fuzzy triangular as well as interval number to estimate budgeting expenses. The proposed study of this paper is implemented for a real-world case study in province of Qom, Iran and the results are analyzed.

  20. Operational budgeting using fuzzy goal programming

    OpenAIRE

    Saeed Mohammadi; Kamran Feizi; Ali Khatami Firouz Abadi

    2013-01-01

    Having an efficient budget normally has different advantages such as measuring the performance of various organizations, setting appropriate targets and promoting managers based on their achievements. However, any budgeting planning requires prediction of different cost components. There are various methods for budgeting planning such as incremental budgeting, program budgeting, zero based budgeting and performance budgeting. In this paper, we present a fuzzy goal programming to estimate oper...

  1. Estimating the impact of state budget cuts and redirection of prevention resources on the HIV epidemic in 59 California local health departments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Feng; Lasry, Arielle; Sansom, Stephanie L; Wolitski, Richard J

    2013-01-01

    In the wake of a national economic downturn, the state of California, in 2009-2010, implemented budget cuts that eliminated state funding of HIV prevention and testing. To mitigate the effect of these cuts remaining federal funds were redirected. This analysis estimates the impact of these budget cuts and reallocation of resources on HIV transmission and associated HIV treatment costs. We estimated the effect of the budget cuts and reallocation for California county health departments (excluding Los Angeles and San Francisco) on the number of individuals living with or at-risk for HIV who received HIV prevention services. We used a Bernoulli model to estimate the number of new infections that would occur each year as a result of the changes, and assigned lifetime treatment costs to those new infections. We explored the effect of redirecting federal funds to more cost-effective programs, as well as the potential effect of allocating funds proportionately by transmission category. We estimated that cutting HIV prevention resulted in 55 new infections that were associated with $20 million in lifetime treatment costs. The redirection of federal funds to more cost-effective programs averted 15 HIV infections. If HIV prevention funding were allocated proportionately to transmission categories, we estimated that HIV infections could be reduced below the number that occurred annually before the state budget cuts. Reducing funding for HIV prevention may result in short-term savings at the expense of additional HIV infections and increased HIV treatment costs. Existing HIV prevention funds would likely have a greater impact on the epidemic if they were allocated to the more cost-effective programs and the populations most likely to acquire and transmit the infection.

  2. Estimating Solar Energy Potential in Buildings on a Global Level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petrichenko, Ksenia

    2015-01-01

    This chapter contributes to the debate around net-zero energy concept from a global perspective. By means of comprehensive modelling, it analyses how much global building energy consumption could be reduced through utilisation of building-integrated solar energy technologies and energy......-efficiency improvements. Valuable insights on the locations and building types, in which it is feasible to achieve a net-zero level of energy performance through solar energy utilisation, are presented in world maps....

  3. Estimating Global Cropland Extent with Multi-year MODIS Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher O. Justice

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the suitability of 250 m MODIS (MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data for mapping global cropland extent. A set of 39 multi-year MODIS metrics incorporating four MODIS land bands, NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and thermal data was employed to depict cropland phenology over the study period. Sub-pixel training datasets were used to generate a set of global classification tree models using a bagging methodology, resulting in a global per-pixel cropland probability layer. This product was subsequently thresholded to create a discrete cropland/non-cropland indicator map using data from the USDA-FAS (Foreign Agricultural Service Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD database describing per-country acreage of production field crops. Five global land cover products, four of which attempted to map croplands in the context of multiclass land cover classifications, were subsequently used to perform regional evaluations of the global MODIS cropland extent map. The global probability layer was further examined with reference to four principle global food crops: corn, soybeans, wheat and rice. Overall results indicate that the MODIS layer best depicts regions of intensive broadleaf crop production (corn and soybean, both in correspondence with existing maps and in associated high probability matching thresholds. Probability thresholds for wheat-growing regions were lower, while areas of rice production had the lowest associated confidence. Regions absent of agricultural intensification, such as Africa, are poorly characterized regardless of crop type. The results reflect the value of MODIS as a generic global cropland indicator for intensive agriculture production regions, but with little sensitivity in areas of low agricultural intensification. Variability in mapping accuracies between areas dominated by different crop types also points to the desirability of a crop-specific approach rather than attempting

  4. Optimal estimation of the surface fluxes of methyl chloride using a 3-D global chemical transport model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Xiao

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Methyl chloride (CH3Cl is a chlorine-containing trace gas in the atmosphere contributing significantly to stratospheric ozone depletion. Large uncertainties in estimates of its source and sink magnitudes and temporal and spatial variations currently exist. GEIA inventories and other bottom-up emission estimates are used to construct a priori maps of the surface fluxes of CH3Cl. The Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH, driven by NCEP interannually varying meteorological data, is then used to simulate CH3Cl mole fractions and quantify the time series of sensitivities of the mole fractions at each measurement site to the surface fluxes of various regional and global sources and sinks. We then implement the Kalman filter (with the unit pulse response method to estimate the surface fluxes on regional/global scales with monthly resolution from January 2000 to December 2004. High frequency observations from the AGAGE, SOGE, NIES, and NOAA/ESRL HATS in situ networks and low frequency observations from the NOAA/ESRL HATS flask network are used to constrain the source and sink magnitudes. The inversion results indicate global total emissions around 4100 ± 470 Gg yr−1 with very large emissions of 2200 ± 390 Gg yr−1 from tropical plants, which turn out to be the largest single source in the CH3Cl budget. Relative to their a priori annual estimates, the inversion increases global annual fungal and tropical emissions, and reduces the global oceanic source. The inversion implies greater seasonal and interannual oscillations of the natural sources and sink of CH3Cl compared to the a priori. The inversion also reflects the strong effects of the 2002/2003 globally widespread heat waves and droughts on global emissions from tropical plants, biomass burning and salt marshes, and on the soil sink.

  5. Use of selected ambulatory dental services in Taiwan before and after global budgeting: a longitudinal study to identify trends in hospital and clinic-based services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Chienhung

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Taiwan government adopted National Health Insurance (NHI in 1995, providing universal health care to all citizens. It was financed by mandatory premium contributions made by employers, employees, and the government. Since then, the government has faced increasing challenges to control NHI expenditures. The aim of this study was to determine trends in the provision of dental services in Taiwan after the implementation of global budgeting in 1998 and to identify areas of possible concern. Methods This longitudinal before/after study was based on data from the National Health Insurance Research Database from 1996 to 2001. These data were subjected to logistic regression analysis. Linear regression analysis was used to examine changes in delivery of specific services after global budgeting implementation. Utilization of hospital and clinic services was compared. Results Reimbursement for dental services increased significantly while the number of visits per patient remained steady in both hospitals and clinics. In hospitals, visits for root canal procedures, ionomer restoration, tooth extraction and tooth scaling increased significantly. In dental clinics, visits for amalgam restoration decreased significantly while those for ionomer restoration, tooth extraction, and tooth scaling increased significantly. After the adoption of global budgeting, expenditures for dental services increased dramatically while the number of visits per patient did not, indicating a possible shift in patients to hospital facilities that received additional National Health Insurance funding. Conclusions The identified trends indicate increased utilization of dental services and uneven distribution of care and dentists. These trends may be compromising the quality of dental care delivered in Taiwan.

  6. Performance of Sayigh's universal formula in the estimation of global solar radiation in Ghana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oduro Afriyie, K.

    1995-10-01

    The performance of Sayigh's universal formula for the estimation of global solar radiation is tested against that of Angstrom-Black model for 13 stations in Ghana, using monthly mean daily global solar radiation averaged over the years 1957-1981. Sayigh's model is found not to perform as credibility as the Angstrom-Black model in the estimation of monthly global solar radiation in Ghana. Of the 156 values of monthly global solar radiation estimated by Sayigh's model, 123 (or 78.8%) had discrepancies of more than 10% with the measured values. The corresponding value for the Angstrom-Black model was 7 (or 4.5%). (author). 5 refs

  7. Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Energy Budget of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The annual energy budget of the Arctic Ocean is characterized by a net heat loss at the air-sea interface that is balanced by oceanic heat transport into the Arctic. The energy loss at the air-sea interface is due to the combined effects of radiative, sensible, and latent heat fluxes. The inflow of heat by the ocean can be divided into two components: the transport of water masses of different temperatures between the Arctic and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the export of sea ice, primarily through Fram Strait. Two 150-year simulations (1950-2099) of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. One is a control simulation for the present climate with constant 1950 atmospheric composition, and the other is a transient experiment with observed GHGs from 1950 to 1990 and 0.5% annual compounded increases of CO2 after 1990. For the present climate the model agrees well with observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, atmospheric advective energy transport into the Arctic, and surface air temperature. It also simulates the seasonal cycle and summer increase of cloud cover and the seasonal cycle of sea-ice cover. In addition, the changes in high-latitude surface air temperature and sea-ice cover in the GHG experiment are consistent with observed changes during the last 40 and 20 years, respectively. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that even though the net annual incident solar radiation at the surface decreases by 4.6 W(per square meters) (because of greater cloud cover and increased cloud optical depth), the absorbed solar radiation increases by 2.8 W(per square meters) (because of less sea ice). Increased cloud cover and warmer air also cause increased downward thermal radiation at the surface so that the net radiation into the ocean increases by 5.0 Wm-2. The annual increase in radiation into the ocean, however, is

  8. Transforming Ocean Observations of the Carbon Budget, Acidification, Hypoxia, Nutrients, and Biological Productivity: a Global Array of Biogeochemical Argo Floats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talley, L. D.; Johnson, K. S.; Claustre, H.; Boss, E.; Emerson, S. R.; Westberry, T. K.; Sarmiento, J. L.; Mazloff, M. R.; Riser, S.; Russell, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    Our ability to detect changes in biogeochemical (BGC) processes in the ocean that may be driven by increasing atmospheric CO2, as well as by natural climate variability, is greatly hindered by undersampling in vast areas of the open ocean. Argo is a major international program that measures ocean heat content and salinity with about 4000 floats distributed throughout the ocean, profiling to 2000 m every 10 days. Extending this approach to a global BGC-Argo float array, using recent, proven sensor technology, and in close synergy with satellite systems, will drive a transformative shift in observing and predicting the effects of climate change on ocean metabolism, carbon uptake, acidification, deoxygenation, and living marine resource management. BGC-Argo will add sensors for pH, oxygen, nitrate, chlorophyll, suspended particles, and downwelling irradiance, with sufficient accuracy for climate studies. Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) using BGC models indicate that 1000 BGC floats would provide sufficient coverage, hence equipping 1/4 of the Argo array. BGC-Argo (http://biogeochemical-argo.org) will enhance current sustained observational programs such as Argo, GO-SHIP, and long-term ocean time series. BGC-Argo will benefit from deployments on GO-SHIP vessels, which provide sensor verification. Empirically derived algorithms that relate the observed BGC float parameters to the carbon system parameters will provide global information on seasonal ocean-atmosphere carbon exchange. BGC Argo measurements could be paired with other emerging technology, such as pCO2 measurements from ships of opportunity and wave gliders, to extend and validate exchange estimates. BGC-Argo prototype programs already show the potential of a global observing system that can measure seasonal to decadal variability. Various countries have developed regional BGC arrays: Southern Ocean (SOCCOM), North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (remOcean), Mediterranean (NAOS), the Kuroshio (INBOX

  9. Estimation of the global climate effect of brown carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, A.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Weber, R. J.; Song, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Carbonaceous aerosols significantly affect global radiative forcing and climate through absorption and scattering of sunlight. Black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) are light-absorbing carbonaceous aerosols. The global distribution and climate effect of BrC is uncertain. A recent study suggests that BrC absorption is comparable to BC in the upper troposphere over biomass burning region and that the resulting heating tends to stabilize the atmosphere. Yet current climate models do not include proper treatments of BrC. In this study, we derived a BrC global biomass burning emission inventory from Global Fire Emissions Database 4 (GFED4) and developed a BrC module in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) of Community Earth System Model (CESM) model. The model simulations compared well to BrC observations of the Studies of Emissions, Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) and Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry Project (DC-3) campaigns and includes BrC bleaching. Model results suggested that BrC in the upper troposphere due to convective transport is as important an absorber as BC globally. Upper tropospheric BrC radiative forcing is particularly significant over the tropics, affecting the atmosphere stability and Hadley circulation.

  10. Impact of Galileo on Global Ionosphere Map Estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Undetermined, U.

    2006-01-01

    The upcoming GNSS Galileo, with its new satellite geometry and frequency plan, will not only bring many benefits for navigation and positioning but also help to improve ionosphere delay estimation. This paper investigates ionosphere estimation with Galileo and compares it with the results from

  11. Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuan, Wenping [College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Luo, Yiqi [Department of Botany and Microbiology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Li, Xianglan [College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Liu, Shuguang; Yu, Guirui [Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Synthesis Research Center of Chinese Ecosystem Research Network, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Zhou, Tao [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Bahn, Michael [Institute of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria; Black, Andy [Faculty of Land and Food Systems, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B. C., Canada; Desai, Ankur R. [Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Department, Center for Climatic Research, Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Cescatti, Alessandro [Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy; Marcolla, Barbara [Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources Department, Fondazione Edmund Mach-IASMA Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all' Adige, Italy; Jacobs, Cor [Alterra, Earth System Science-Climate Change, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; Chen, Jiquan [Department of Earth, Ecological, and Environmental Sciences, University of Toledo, Toledo, Ohio, USA; Aurela, Mika [Climate and Global Change Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; Bernhofer, Christian [Chair of Meteorology, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany; Gielen, Bert [Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium; Bohrer, Gil [Department of Civil, Environmental, and Geodetic Engineering, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA; Cook, David R. [Climate Research Section, Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois, USA; Dragoni, Danilo [Department of Geography, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Dunn, Allison L. [Department of Physical and Earth Sciences, Worcester State College, Worcester, Massachusetts, USA; Gianelle, Damiano [Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources Department, Fondazione Edmund Mach-IASMA Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all' Adige, Italy; Grünwald, Thomas [Chair of Meteorology, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany; Ibrom, Andreas [Risø DTU National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Biosystems Division, Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark; Leclerc, Monique Y. [Department of Crop and Soil Sciences, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Georgia, Griffin, Georgia, USA; Lindroth, Anders [Geobiosphere Science Centre, Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University, Lund, Sweden; Liu, Heping [Laboratory for Atmospheric Research, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington, USA; Marchesini, Luca Belelli [Department for Innovation in Biological, Agro-Food and Forest Systems, University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy; Montagnani, Leonardo; Pita, Gabriel [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Instituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon, Portugal; Rodeghiero, Mirco [Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources Department, Fondazione Edmund Mach-IASMA Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all' Adige, Italy; Rodrigues, Abel [Unidade de Silvicultura e Produtos Florestais, Instituto Nacional dos Recursos Biológicos, Oeiras, Portugal; Starr, Gregory [Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Stoy, Paul C. [Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, USA

    2011-10-13

    Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models still use a global constant BR largely due to the lack of a functional description for BR. In this study, we redefined BR to be ecosystem respiration rate at the mean annual temperature. To test the validity of this concept, we conducted a synthesis analysis using 276 site-years of eddy covariance data, from 79 research sites located at latitudes ranging from ~3°S to ~70°N. Results showed that mean annual ER rate closely matches ER rate at mean annual temperature. Incorporation of site-specific BR into global ER model substantially improved simulated ER compared to an invariant BR at all sites. These results confirm that ER at the mean annual

  12. Parameter Estimations of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB Model over the Life History of a Key Antarctic Species: The Antarctic Sea Star Odontaster validus Koehler, 1906.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Agüera

    Full Text Available Marine organisms in Antarctica are adapted to an extreme ecosystem including extremely stable temperatures and strong seasonality due to changes in day length. It is now largely accepted that Southern Ocean organisms are particularly vulnerable to global warming with some regions already being challenged by a rapid increase of temperature. Climate change affects both the physical and biotic components of marine ecosystems and will have an impact on the distribution and population dynamics of Antarctic marine organisms. To predict and assess the effect of climate change on marine ecosystems a more comprehensive knowledge of the life history and physiology of key species is urgently needed. In this study we estimate the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB model parameters for key benthic Antarctic species the sea star Odontaster validus using available information from literature and experiments. The DEB theory is unique in capturing the metabolic processes of an organism through its entire life cycle as a function of temperature and food availability. The DEB model allows for the inclusion of the different life history stages, and thus, becomes a tool that can be used to model lifetime feeding, growth, reproduction, and their responses to changes in biotic and abiotic conditions. The DEB model presented here includes the estimation of reproduction handling rules for the development of simultaneous oocyte cohorts within the gonad. Additionally it links the DEB model reserves to the pyloric caeca an organ whose function has long been ascribed to energy storage. Model parameters described a slowed down metabolism of long living animals that mature slowly. O. validus has a large reserve that-matching low maintenance costs- allow withstanding long periods of starvation. Gonad development is continuous and individual cohorts developed within the gonads grow in biomass following a power function of the age of the cohort. The DEB model developed here for O

  13. Global Ocean Evaporation: How Well Can We Estimate Interannual to Decadal Variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Roberts, Jason B.; Wang, Hailan

    2015-01-01

    Evaporation from the world's oceans constitutes the largest component of the global water balance. It is important not only as the ultimate source of moisture that is tied to the radiative processes determining Earth's energy balance but also to freshwater availability over land, governing habitability of the planet. Here we focus on variability of ocean evaporation on scales from interannual to decadal by appealing to three sources of data: the new MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications -2); climate models run with historical sea-surface temperatures, ice and atmospheric constituents (so-called AMIP experiments); and state-of-the-art satellite retrievals from the Seaflux and HOAPS (Hamburg Ocean-Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite) projects. Each of these sources has distinct advantages as well as drawbacks. MERRA-2, like other reanalyses, synthesizes evaporation estimates consistent with observationally constrained physical and dynamical models-but data stream discontinuities are a major problem for interpreting multi-decadal records. The climate models used in data assimilation can also be run with lesser constraints such as with SSTs and sea-ice (i.e. AMIPs) or with additional, minimal observations of surface pressure and marine observations that have longer and less fragmentary observational records. We use the new ERA-20C reanalysis produced by ECMWF embodying the latter methodology. Still, the model physics biases in climate models and the lack of a predicted surface energy balance are of concern. Satellite retrievals and comparisons to ship-based measurements offer the most observationally-based estimates, but sensor inter-calibration, algorithm retrieval assumptions, and short records are dominant issues. Our strategy depends on maximizing the advantages of these combined records. The primary diagnostic tool used here is an analysis of bulk aerodynamic computations produced by these sources and uses a first

  14. Changes of global terrestrial carbon budget and major drivers in recent 30 years simulated using the remote sensing driven BEPS model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ju, W.; Chen, J.; Liu, R.; Liu, Y.

    2013-12-01

    The process-based Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) model was employed in conjunction with spatially distributed leaf area index (LAI), land cover, soil, and climate data to simulate the carbon budget of global terrestrial ecosystems during the period from 1981 to 2008. The BEPS model was first calibrated and validated using gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) measured in different ecosystems across the word. Then, four global simulations were conducted at daily time steps and a spatial resolution of 8 km to quantify the global terrestrial carbon budget and to identify the relative contributions of changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and LAI to the global terrestrial carbon sink. The long term LAI data used to drive the model was generated through fusing Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and historical Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data pixel by pixel. The meteorological fields were interpolated from the 0.5° global daily meteorological dataset produced by the land surface hydrological research group at Princeton University. The results show that the BEPS model was able to simulate carbon fluxes in different ecosystems. Simulated GPP, NPP, and NEP values and their temporal trends exhibited distinguishable spatial patterns. During the period from 1981 to 2008, global terrestrial ecosystems acted as a carbon sink. The averaged global totals of GPP NPP, and NEP were 122.70 Pg C yr-1, 56.89 Pg C yr-1, and 2.76 Pg C yr-1, respectively. The global totals of GPP and NPP increased greatly, at rates of 0.43 Pg C yr-2 (R2=0.728) and 0.26 Pg C yr-2 (R2=0.709), respectively. Global total NEP did not show an apparent increasing trend (R2= 0.036), averaged 2.26 Pg C yr-1, 3.21 Pg C yr-1, and 2.72 Pg C yr-1 for the periods from 1981 to 1989, from 1990 to 1999, and from 2000 to 2008, respectively. The magnitude and temporal trend of global

  15. Estimating global cropland production from 1961 to 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Pengfei; Zeng, Ning; Zhao, Fang; Lin, Xiaohui

    2017-09-01

    Global cropland net primary production (NPP) has tripled over the last 50 years, contributing 17-45 % to the increase in global atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplitude. Although many regional-scale comparisons have been made between statistical data and modeling results, long-term national comparisons across global croplands are scarce due to the lack of detailed spatiotemporal management data. Here, we conducted a simulation study of global cropland NPP from 1961 to 2010 using a process-based model called Vegetation-Global Atmosphere-Soil (VEGAS) and compared the results with Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) statistical data on both continental and country scales. According to the FAO data, the global cropland NPP was 1.3, 1.8, 2.2, 2.6, 3.0, and 3.6 PgC yr-1 in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s, respectively. The VEGAS model captured these major trends on global and continental scales. The NPP increased most notably in the US Midwest, western Europe, and the North China Plain and increased modestly in Africa and Oceania. However, significant biases remained in some regions such as Africa and Oceania, especially in temporal evolution. This finding is not surprising as VEGAS is the first global carbon cycle model with full parameterization representing the Green Revolution. To improve model performance for different major regions, we modified the default values of management intensity associated with the agricultural Green Revolution differences across various regions to better match the FAO statistical data at the continental level and for selected countries. Across all the selected countries, the updated results reduced the RMSE from 19.0 to 10.5 TgC yr-1 (˜ 45 % decrease). The results suggest that these regional differences in model parameterization are due to differences in socioeconomic development. To better explain the past changes and predict the future trends, it is important to calibrate key parameters on regional

  16. Saving lives in health: global estimates and country measurement.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Low-Beer

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Daniel Low-Beer and colleagues provide a response from The Global Fund on the PLOS Medicine article by David McCoy and colleagues critiquing their lives saved assessment models. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

  17. Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jay R. Malcolm; Adam Markham; Ronald P. Neilson; Michael. Oaraci

    2002-01-01

    Greefihouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 doubled climatic forcing.

  18. Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yuan, Wenping; Luo, Yiqi; Li, Xianglan

    2011-01-01

    Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models sti...

  19. Discrete non-parametric kernel estimation for global sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senga Kiessé, Tristan; Ventura, Anne

    2016-01-01

    This work investigates the discrete kernel approach for evaluating the contribution of the variance of discrete input variables to the variance of model output, via analysis of variance (ANOVA) decomposition. Until recently only the continuous kernel approach has been applied as a metamodeling approach within sensitivity analysis framework, for both discrete and continuous input variables. Now the discrete kernel estimation is known to be suitable for smoothing discrete functions. We present a discrete non-parametric kernel estimator of ANOVA decomposition of a given model. An estimator of sensitivity indices is also presented with its asymtotic convergence rate. Some simulations on a test function analysis and a real case study from agricultural have shown that the discrete kernel approach outperforms the continuous kernel one for evaluating the contribution of moderate or most influential discrete parameters to the model output. - Highlights: • We study a discrete kernel estimation for sensitivity analysis of a model. • A discrete kernel estimator of ANOVA decomposition of the model is presented. • Sensitivity indices are calculated for discrete input parameters. • An estimator of sensitivity indices is also presented with its convergence rate. • An application is realized for improving the reliability of environmental models.

  20. Late Budgets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Asger Lau; Lassen, David Dreyer; Nielsen, Lasse Holbøll Westh

    are negative rather than positive; and when there is divided government. We test the hypotheses of the model using a unique data set of late budgets for US state governments, based on dates of budget approval collected from news reports and a survey of state budget o¢ cers for the period 1988...

  1. Decadal evolution of the surface energy budget during the fast warming and global warming hiatus periods in the ERA-interim

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xiaoming; Sejas, Sergio A.; Cai, Ming; Taylor, Patrick C.; Deng, Yi; Yang, Song

    2018-05-01

    The global-mean surface temperature has experienced a rapid warming from the 1980s to early-2000s but a muted warming since, referred to as the global warming hiatus in the literature. Decadal changes in deep ocean heat uptake are thought to primarily account for the rapid warming and subsequent slowdown. Here, we examine the role of ocean heat uptake in establishing the fast warming and warming hiatus periods in the ERA-Interim through a decomposition of the global-mean surface energy budget. We find the increase of carbon dioxide alone yields a nearly steady increase of the downward longwave radiation at the surface from the 1980s to the present, but neither accounts for the fast warming nor warming hiatus periods. During the global warming hiatus period, the transfer of latent heat energy from the ocean to atmosphere increases and the total downward radiative energy flux to the surface decreases due to a reduction of solar absorption caused primarily by an increase of clouds. The reduction of radiative energy into the ocean and the surface latent heat flux increase cause the ocean heat uptake to decrease and thus contribute to the slowdown of the global-mean surface warming. Our analysis also finds that in addition to a reduction of deep ocean heat uptake, the fast warming period is also driven by enhanced solar absorption due predominantly to a decrease of clouds and by enhanced longwave absorption mainly attributed to the air temperature feedback.

  2. Online Global Land Surface Temperature Estimation from Landsat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Parastatidis

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This study explores the estimation of land surface temperature (LST for the globe from Landsat 5, 7 and 8 thermal infrared sensors, using different surface emissivity sources. A single channel algorithm is used for consistency among the estimated LST products, whereas the option of using emissivity from different sources provides flexibility for the algorithm’s implementation to any area of interest. The Google Earth Engine (GEE, an advanced earth science data and analysis platform, allows the estimation of LST products for the globe, covering the time period from 1984 to present. To evaluate the method, the estimated LST products were compared against two reference datasets: (a LST products derived from ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer, as higher-level products based on the temperature-emissivity separation approach; (b Landsat LST data that have been independently produced, using different approaches. An overall RMSE (root mean square error of 1.52 °C was observed and it was confirmed that the accuracy of the LST product is dependent on the emissivity; different emissivity sources provided different LST accuracies, depending on the surface cover. The LST products, for the full Landsat 5, 7 and 8 archives, are estimated “on-the-fly” and are available on-line via a web application.

  3. Phase estimation for global defocus correction in optical coherence tomography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Mikkel; Israelsen, Niels Møller; Podoleanu, Adrian

    2017-01-01

    In this work we investigate three techniques for estimation of the non-linear phase present due to defocus in opticalcoherence tomography, and apply them with the angular spectrum method. The techniques are: Least squarestting the of unwrapped phase of the angular spectrum, iterative optimization......, and sub-aperture correlations. The estimated phase of a single en-face image is used to extrapolate the non-linear phase at all depths, whichin the end can be used to correct the entire 3-D tomogram, and any other tomogram from the same system.......In this work we investigate three techniques for estimation of the non-linear phase present due to defocus in opticalcoherence tomography, and apply them with the angular spectrum method. The techniques are: Least squarestting the of unwrapped phase of the angular spectrum, iterative optimization...

  4. Estimation of radiation hazard of global 85Kr

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasilenko, I.Ya.; Moskalev, Yu.I.; Istomina, A.G.

    1979-01-01

    The data on sources and levels of the 85 Kr biosphere contamination are presented on the basis of generalization and analysis of literature. The potential irradiation doses for people are calculated and the biological estimation of the hazard of 85 Kr accumulation in the atmosphere up to 2050 is given taking into account the prospects for development of nuclear power engineering. The basis of the estimation is the radionuclide blastomogeneous and genetic effect. The conclusion is made that the prospects for development of nuclear power engineering do not lead to any sufficient increase in the number of malignant tumors and genetic abnormalities caused by 85 Kr radiation comparing with their natural frequency

  5. Global weighted estimates for second-order nondivergence elliptic ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Fengping Yao

    2018-03-21

    Mar 21, 2018 ... One of the key a priori estimates in the theory of second-order elliptic .... It is well known that the maximal functions satisfy strong p–p .... Here we prove the following auxiliary result, which will be a crucial ingredient in the proof.

  6. estimation of global solar radiation from sunshine hours for warri

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DJFLEX

    Multiple linear regression models were developed to estimate the monthly daily sunshine hours using four parameters during a period of eleven years (1997 to 2007) for Warri, Nigeria (Latitude of 5o. 34' 21.0''); the parameters include, Relative Humidity, Maximum and Minimum Temperature, Rainfall and Wind Speed.

  7. Estimation of global solar radiation from sunshine hours for Warri ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Multiple linear regression models were developed to estimate the monthly daily sunshine hours using four parameters during a period of eleven years (1997 to 2007) for Warri, Nigeria (Latitude of 5o 34' 21.0''); the parameters include, Relative Humidity, Maximum and Minimum Temperature, Rainfall and Wind Speed.

  8. Comparison of two global digital algorithms for Minkowski tensor estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    The geometry of real world objects can be described by Minkowski tensors. Algorithms have been suggested to approximate Minkowski tensors if only a binary image of the object is available. This paper presents implementations of two such algorithms. The theoretical convergence properties...... are confirmed by simulations on test sets, and recommendations for input arguments of the algorithms are given. For increasing resolutions, we obtain more accurate estimators for the Minkowski tensors. Digitisations of more complicated objects are shown to require higher resolutions....

  9. Quantifying and reducing the differences in forest CO2-fluxes estimated by eddy covariance, biometric and chamber methods: A global synthesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Xingchang; Wang, Chuankuan; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

    2017-12-15

    Carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere are primarily measured with eddy covariance (EC), biometric, and chamber methods. However, it is unclear why the estimates of CO2-fluxes, when measured using these different methods, converge at some sites but diverge at others. We synthesized a novel global dataset of forest CO2-fluxes to evaluate the consistency between EC and biometric or chamber methods for quantifying CO2 budget in forests. The EC approach, comparing with the other two methods, tended to produce 25% higher estimate of net ecosystem production (NEP, 0.52Mg C ha-1 yr-1), mainly resulting from lower EC-estimated Re; 10% lower ecosystem respiration (Re, 1.39Mg C ha-1 yr-1); and 3% lower gross primary production (0.48 Mg C ha-1 yr-1) The discrepancies between EC and the other methods were higher at sites with complex topography and dense canopies versus those with flat topography and open canopies. Forest age also influenced the discrepancy through the change of leaf area index. The open-path EC system induced >50% of the discrepancy in NEP, presumably due to its surface heating effect. These results provided strong evidence that EC produces biased estimates of NEP and Re in forest ecosystems. A global extrapolation suggested that the discrepancies in CO2 fluxes between methods were consistent with a global underestimation of Re, and overestimation of NEP, by the EC method. Accounting for these discrepancies would substantially improve the our estimates of the terrestrial carbon budget .

  10. The Agency's budget

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1964-01-01

    A total Agency Budget of $10 406 000 for 1965 was approved by the General Conference at its session of September 1964; the Budget for the year 1964 amounted to $9 812 000. The consolidated Budget figures are shown in the table at the end of this article. The Budget falls into two parts - the Regular Budget and the Operational Budget. The Regular Budget provides for the ordinary administrative expenses of the Agency, and for expert panels, special missions, symposia and conferences, distribution of information, and scientific and technical services. In conformity with the Agency's Statute, these expenses are met by contributions made according to Voluntary contributions are paid initially into a General Fund established for this purpose, and money for operations is transferred to the respective Operating Funds as appropriate, and as approved by the Board of Governors. The scale of assessments for 1965 is based on the United Nations scale for 1964. The assessments are estimated to yield $7 713 000 - an increase of 6.8 per cent; however, more than three quarters of this increase will be offset by credits which Member States will receive as a result of a cash surplus brought forward. The Operational Budget is financed by voluntary contributions and is divided into two parts - Operating Fund I, devoted to certain laboratory and research projects, and Operating Fund II, for technical assistance, training and research contracts.

  11. Cost analysis of small hydroelectric power plants components and preliminary estimation of global cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basta, C.; Olive, W.J.; Antunes, J.S.

    1990-01-01

    An analysis of cost for each components of Small Hydroelectric Power Plant, taking into account the real costs of these projects is shown. It also presents a global equation which allows a preliminary estimation of cost for each construction. (author)

  12. Estimation of Subdaily Polar Motion with the Global Positioning System During the Spoch '92 Campaign

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibanez-Meier, R.; Freedman, A. P.; Herring, T. A.; Gross, R. S.; Lichten, S. M.; Lindqwister, U. J.

    1994-01-01

    Data collected over six days from a worldwide Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking network during the Epoch '92 campaign are used to estimate variations of the Earth's pole position every 30 minutes.

  13. Global Burden of Leptospirosis: Estimated in Terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Torgerson, Paul R.; Hagan, José E.; Costa, Federico; Calcagno, Juan; Kane, Michael; Martinez-Silveira, Martha S.; Goris, Marga G. A.; Stein, Claudia; Ko, Albert I.; Abela-Ridder, Bernadette

    2015-01-01

    Background Leptospirosis, a spirochaetal zoonosis, occurs in diverse epidemiological settings and affects vulnerable populations, such as rural subsistence farmers and urban slum dwellers. Although leptospirosis can cause life-threatening disease, there is no global burden of disease estimate in

  14. Distancing from experienced self: how global versus local perception affects estimation of psychological distance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liberman, N.; Förster, J.

    2009-01-01

    In 4 studies, the authors examined the prediction derived from construal level theory (CLT) that higher level of perceptual construal would enhance estimated egocentric psychological distance. The authors primed participants with global perception, local perception, or both (the control condition).

  15. A comparison of estimates of basin-scale soil-moisture evapotranspiration and estimates of riparian groundwater evapotranspiration with implications for water budgets in the Verde Valley, Central Arizona, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tillman, Fred; Wiele, Stephen M.; Pool, Donald R.

    2015-01-01

    Population growth in the Verde Valley in Arizona has led to efforts to better understand water availability in the watershed. Evapotranspiration (ET) is a substantial component of the water budget and a critical factor in estimating groundwater recharge in the area. In this study, four estimates of ET are compared and discussed with applications to the Verde Valley. Higher potential ET (PET) rates from the soil-water balance (SWB) recharge model resulted in an average annual ET volume about 17% greater than for ET from the basin characteristics (BCM) recharge model. Annual BCM PET volume, however, was greater by about a factor of 2 or more than SWB actual ET (AET) estimates, which are used in the SWB model to estimate groundwater recharge. ET also was estimated using a method that combines MODIS-EVI remote sensing data and geospatial information and by the MODFLOW-EVT ET package as part of a regional groundwater-flow model that includes the study area. Annual ET volumes were about same for upper-bound MODIS-EVI ET for perennial streams as for the MODFLOW ET estimates, with the small differences between the two methods having minimal impact on annual or longer groundwater budgets for the study area.

  16. Estimation of global network statistics from incomplete data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine A Bliss

    Full Text Available Complex networks underlie an enormous variety of social, biological, physical, and virtual systems. A profound complication for the science of complex networks is that in most cases, observing all nodes and all network interactions is impossible. Previous work addressing the impacts of partial network data is surprisingly limited, focuses primarily on missing nodes, and suggests that network statistics derived from subsampled data are not suitable estimators for the same network statistics describing the overall network topology. We generate scaling methods to predict true network statistics, including the degree distribution, from only partial knowledge of nodes, links, or weights. Our methods are transparent and do not assume a known generating process for the network, thus enabling prediction of network statistics for a wide variety of applications. We validate analytical results on four simulated network classes and empirical data sets of various sizes. We perform subsampling experiments by varying proportions of sampled data and demonstrate that our scaling methods can provide very good estimates of true network statistics while acknowledging limits. Lastly, we apply our techniques to a set of rich and evolving large-scale social networks, Twitter reply networks. Based on 100 million tweets, we use our scaling techniques to propose a statistical characterization of the Twitter Interactome from September 2008 to November 2008. Our treatment allows us to find support for Dunbar's hypothesis in detecting an upper threshold for the number of active social contacts that individuals maintain over the course of one week.

  17. New global fire emission estimates and evaluation of volatile organic compounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Wiedinmyer; L. K. Emmons; S. K. Akagi; R. J. Yokelson; J. J. Orlando; J. A. Al-Saadi; A. J. Soja

    2010-01-01

    A daily, high-resolution, global fire emissions model has been built to estimate emissions from open burning for air quality modeling applications: The Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN version 1). The model framework uses daily fire detections from the MODIS instruments and updated emission factors, specifically for speciated non-methane organic compounds (NMOC). Global...

  18. Contribution of milk production to global greenhouse gas emissions. An estimation based on typical farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagemann, Martin; Ndambi, Asaah; Hemme, Torsten; Latacz-Lohmann, Uwe

    2012-02-01

    Studies on the contribution of milk production to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are rare (FAO 2010) and often based on crude data which do not appropriately reflect the heterogeneity of farming systems. This article estimates GHG emissions from milk production in different dairy regions of the world based on a harmonised farm data and assesses the contribution of milk production to global GHG emissions. The methodology comprises three elements: (1) the International Farm Comparison Network (IFCN) concept of typical farms and the related globally standardised dairy model farms representing 45 dairy regions in 38 countries; (2) a partial life cycle assessment model for estimating GHG emissions of the typical dairy farms; and (3) standard regression analysis to estimate GHG emissions from milk production in countries for which no typical farms are available in the IFCN database. Across the 117 typical farms in the 38 countries analysed, the average emission rate is 1.50 kg CO(2) equivalents (CO(2)-eq.)/kg milk. The contribution of milk production to the global anthropogenic emissions is estimated at 1.3 Gt CO(2)-eq./year, accounting for 2.65% of total global anthropogenic emissions (49 Gt; IPCC, Synthesis Report for Policy Maker, Valencia, Spain, 2007). We emphasise that our estimates of the contribution of milk production to global GHG emissions are subject to uncertainty. Part of the uncertainty stems from the choice of the appropriate methods for estimating emissions at the level of the individual animal.

  19. Spatially distributed groundwater recharge estimated using a water-budget model for the Island of Maui, Hawai`i, 1978–2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Adam G.; Engott, John A.; Bassiouni, Maoya; Rotzoll, Kolja

    2014-12-14

    Demand for freshwater on the Island of Maui is expected to grow. To evaluate the availability of fresh groundwater, estimates of groundwater recharge are needed. A water-budget model with a daily computation interval was developed and used to estimate the spatial distribution of recharge on Maui for average climate conditions (1978–2007 rainfall and 2010 land cover) and for drought conditions (1998–2002 rainfall and 2010 land cover). For average climate conditions, mean annual recharge for Maui is about 1,309 million gallons per day, or about 44 percent of precipitation (rainfall and fog interception). Recharge for average climate conditions is about 39 percent of total water inflow consisting of precipitation, irrigation, septic leachate, and seepage from reservoirs and cesspools. Most recharge occurs on the wet, windward slopes of Haleakalā and on the wet, uplands of West Maui Mountain. Dry, coastal areas generally have low recharge. In the dry isthmus, however, irrigated fields have greater recharge than nearby unirrigated areas. For drought conditions, mean annual recharge for Maui is about 1,010 million gallons per day, which is 23 percent less than recharge for average climate conditions. For individual aquifer-system areas used for groundwater management, recharge for drought conditions is about 8 to 51 percent less than recharge for average climate conditions. The spatial distribution of rainfall is the primary factor determining spatially distributed recharge estimates for most areas on Maui. In wet areas, recharge estimates are also sensitive to water-budget parameters that are related to runoff, fog interception, and forest-canopy evaporation. In dry areas, recharge estimates are most sensitive to irrigated crop areas and parameters related to evapotranspiration.

  20. Comparison of modeling approaches for carbon partitioning: Impact on estimates of global net primary production and equilibrium biomass of woody vegetation from MODIS GPP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ise, Takeshi; Litton, Creighton M.; Giardina, Christian P.; Ito, Akihiko

    2010-12-01

    Partitioning of gross primary production (GPP) to aboveground versus belowground, to growth versus respiration, and to short versus long-lived tissues exerts a strong influence on ecosystem structure and function, with potentially large implications for the global carbon budget. A recent meta-analysis of forest ecosystems suggests that carbon partitioning to leaves, stems, and roots varies consistently with GPP and that the ratio of net primary production (NPP) to GPP is conservative across environmental gradients. To examine influences of carbon partitioning schemes employed by global ecosystem models, we used this meta-analysis-based model and a satellite-based (MODIS) terrestrial GPP data set to estimate global woody NPP and equilibrium biomass, and then compared it to two process-based ecosystem models (Biome-BGC and VISIT) using the same GPP data set. We hypothesized that different carbon partitioning schemes would result in large differences in global estimates of woody NPP and equilibrium biomass. Woody NPP estimated by Biome-BGC and VISIT was 25% and 29% higher than the meta-analysis-based model for boreal forests, with smaller differences in temperate and tropics. Global equilibrium woody biomass, calculated from model-specific NPP estimates and a single set of tissue turnover rates, was 48 and 226 Pg C higher for Biome-BGC and VISIT compared to the meta-analysis-based model, reflecting differences in carbon partitioning to structural versus metabolically active tissues. In summary, we found that different carbon partitioning schemes resulted in large variations in estimates of global woody carbon flux and storage, indicating that stand-level controls on carbon partitioning are not yet accurately represented in ecosystem models.

  1. Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS Model: A New Method for Estimating the Global Dietary Supply of Nutrients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew R Smith

    Full Text Available Insufficient data exist for accurate estimation of global nutrient supplies. Commonly used global datasets contain key weaknesses: 1 data with global coverage, such as the FAO food balance sheets, lack specific information about many individual foods and no information on micronutrient supplies nor heterogeneity among subnational populations, while 2 household surveys provide a closer approximation of consumption, but are often not nationally representative, do not commonly capture many foods consumed outside of the home, and only provide adequate information for a few select populations. Here, we attempt to improve upon these datasets by constructing a new model--the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS model--to estimate nutrient availabilities for 23 individual nutrients across 225 food categories for thirty-four age-sex groups in nearly all countries. Furthermore, the model provides historical trends in dietary nutritional supplies at the national level using data from 1961-2011. We determine supplies of edible food by expanding the food balance sheet data using FAO production and trade data to increase food supply estimates from 98 to 221 food groups, and then estimate the proportion of major cereals being processed to flours to increase to 225. Next, we estimate intake among twenty-six demographic groups (ages 20+, both sexes in each country by using data taken from the Global Dietary Database, which uses nationally representative surveys to relate national averages of food consumption to individual age and sex-groups; for children and adolescents where GDD data does not yet exist, average calorie-adjusted amounts are assumed. Finally, we match food supplies with nutrient densities from regional food composition tables to estimate nutrient supplies, running Monte Carlo simulations to find the range of potential nutrient supplies provided by the diet. To validate our new method, we compare the GENuS estimates of nutrient supplies against

  2. Dead Sea evaporation by eddy covariance measurements vs. aerodynamic, energy budget, Priestley-Taylor, and Penman estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzger, Jutta; Nied, Manuela; Corsmeier, Ulrich; Kleffmann, Jörg; Kottmeier, Christoph

    2018-02-01

    The Dead Sea is a terminal lake, located in an arid environment. Evaporation is the key component of the Dead Sea water budget and accounts for the main loss of water. So far, lake evaporation has been determined by indirect methods only and not measured directly. Consequently, the governing factors of evaporation are unknown. For the first time, long-term eddy covariance measurements were performed at the western Dead Sea shore for a period of 1 year by implementing a new concept for onshore lake evaporation measurements. To account for lake evaporation during offshore wind conditions, a robust and reliable multiple regression model was developed using the identified governing factors wind velocity and water vapour pressure deficit. An overall regression coefficient of 0.8 is achieved. The measurements show that the diurnal evaporation cycle is governed by three local wind systems: a lake breeze during daytime, strong downslope winds in the evening, and strong northerly along-valley flows during the night. After sunset, the strong winds cause half-hourly evaporation rates which are up to 100 % higher than during daytime. The median daily evaporation is 4.3 mm d-1 in July and 1.1 mm d-1 in December. The annual evaporation of the water surface at the measurement location was 994±88 mm a-1 from March 2014 until March 2015. Furthermore, the performance of indirect evaporation approaches was tested and compared to the measurements. The aerodynamic approach is applicable for sub-daily and multi-day calculations and attains correlation coefficients between 0.85 and 0.99. For the application of the Bowen ratio energy budget method and the Priestley-Taylor method, measurements of the heat storage term are inevitable on timescales up to 1 month. Otherwise strong seasonal biases occur. The Penman equation was adapted to calculate realistic evaporation, by using an empirically gained linear function for the heat storage term, achieving correlation coefficients between 0

  3. Global estimation of CO emissions using three sets of satellite data for burned area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Atul K.

    Using three sets of satellite data for burned areas together with the tree cover imagery and a biogeochemical component of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) the global emissions of CO and associated uncertainties are estimated for the year 2000. The available fuel load (AFL) is calculated using the ISAM biogeochemical model, which accounts for the aboveground and surface fuel removed by land clearing for croplands and pasturelands, as well as the influence on fuel load of various ecosystem processes (such as stomatal conductance, evapotranspiration, plant photosynthesis and respiration, litter production, and soil organic carbon decomposition) and important feedback mechanisms (such as climate and fertilization feedback mechanism). The ISAM estimated global total AFL in the year 2000 was about 687 Pg AFL. All forest ecosystems account for about 90% of the global total AFL. The estimated global CO emissions based on three global burned area satellite data sets (GLOBSCAR, GBA, and Global Fire Emissions Database version 2 (GFEDv2)) for the year 2000 ranges between 320 and 390 Tg CO. Emissions from open fires are highest in tropical Africa, primarily due to forest cutting and burning. The estimated overall uncertainty in global CO emission is about ±65%, with the highest uncertainty occurring in North Africa and Middle East region (±99%). The results of this study suggest that the uncertainties in the calculated emissions stem primarily from the area burned data.

  4. Bomb radiocarbon: imbalance in the budget

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joos, Fortunat

    1994-01-01

    An improved understanding of the global carbon cycle is crucial to global climate change research. The uncertainties surrounding the level of oceanic carbon uptake are discussed. A revision downwards of 25% in the currently accepted figure is suggested by authors who base their estimates on a new analysis of the oceanic uptake of radiocarbon released in the atomic bomb tests of the late 1950s and early 1960s. The reduction in uptake level is required to take account of a global imbalance in the bomb-radiocarbon budget in the post test-ban period which emerges from recent carbon-cycle models. Large uncertainties exist in the estimate of the imbalance, however, and bomb-radiocarbon and anthropogenic CO 2 do not behave identically. Any revision of CO 2 uptake estimates may be substantially smaller than the 25% put forward for the bomb-radiocarbon inventory. (UK)

  5. System Budgets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeppesen, Palle

    1996-01-01

    The lecture note is aimed at introducing system budgets for optical communication systems. It treats optical fiber communication systems (six generations), system design, bandwidth effects, other system impairments and optical amplifiers.......The lecture note is aimed at introducing system budgets for optical communication systems. It treats optical fiber communication systems (six generations), system design, bandwidth effects, other system impairments and optical amplifiers....

  6. A history of presatellite investigations of the earth's radiation budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, G. E.; Kandel, R.; Mecherikunnel, A. T.

    1986-01-01

    The history of radiation budget studies from the early twentieth century to the advent of the space age is reviewed. By the beginning of the 1960's, accurate radiative models had been developed capable of estimating the global and zonally averaged components of the radiation budget, though great uncertainty in the derived parameters existed due to inaccuracy of the data describing the physical parameters used in the model, associated with clouds, the solar radiation, and the gaseous atmospheric absorbers. Over the century, the planetary albedo estimates had reduced from 89 to 30 percent.

  7. Estimating the global clinical burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in 2007.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon I Hay

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The epidemiology of malaria makes surveillance-based methods of estimating its disease burden problematic. Cartographic approaches have provided alternative malaria burden estimates, but there remains widespread misunderstanding about their derivation and fidelity. The aims of this study are to present a new cartographic technique and its application for deriving global clinical burden estimates of Plasmodium falciparum malaria for 2007, and to compare these estimates and their likely precision with those derived under existing surveillance-based approaches.In seven of the 87 countries endemic for P. falciparum malaria, the health reporting infrastructure was deemed sufficiently rigorous for case reports to be used verbatim. In the remaining countries, the mapped extent of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria transmission was first determined. Estimates of the plausible incidence range of clinical cases were then calculated within the spatial limits of unstable transmission. A modelled relationship between clinical incidence and prevalence was used, together with new maps of P. falciparum malaria endemicity, to estimate incidence in areas of stable transmission, and geostatistical joint simulation was used to quantify uncertainty in these estimates at national, regional, and global scales. Combining these estimates for all areas of transmission risk resulted in 451 million (95% credible interval 349-552 million clinical cases of P. falciparum malaria in 2007. Almost all of this burden of morbidity occurred in areas of stable transmission. More than half of all estimated P. falciparum clinical cases and associated uncertainty occurred in India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC, and Myanmar (Burma, where 1.405 billion people are at risk. Recent surveillance-based methods of burden estimation were then reviewed and discrepancies in national estimates explored. When these cartographically derived national estimates were ranked

  8. DCS Budget Tracking System

    Data.gov (United States)

    Social Security Administration — DCS Budget Tracking System database contains budget information for the Information Technology budget and the 'Other Objects' budget. This data allows for monitoring...

  9. Combined equations for estimating global solar radiation: Projection of radiation field over Japan under global warming conditions by statistical downscaling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Yokozawa, M.

    2008-01-01

    For this study, we developed a new statistical model to estimate the daily accumulated global solar radiation on the earth's surface and used the model to generate a high-resolution climate change scenario of the radiation field in Japan. The statistical model mainly relies on precipitable water vapor calculated from air temperature and relative humidity on the surface to estimate seasonal changes in global solar radiation. On the other hand, to estimate daily radiation fluctuations, the model uses either a diurnal temperature range or relative humidity. The diurnal temperature range, calculated from the daily maximum and minimum temperatures, and relative humidity is a general output of most climate models, and pertinent observation data are comparatively easy to access. The statistical model performed well when estimating the monthly mean value, daily fluctuation statistics, and regional differences in the radiation field in Japan. To project the change in the radiation field for the years 2081 to 2100, we applied the statistical model to the climate change scenario of a high-resolution Regional Climate Model with a 20-km mesh size (RCM20) developed at the Meteorological Research Institute based on the Special Report for Emission Scenario (SRES)-A2. The projected change shows the following tendency: global solar radiation will increase in the warm season and decrease in the cool season in many areas of Japan, indicating that global warming may cause changes in the radiation field in Japan. The generated climate change scenario for the radiation field is linked to long-term and short-term changes in air temperature and relative humidity obtained from the RCM20 and, consequently, is expected to complement the RCM20 datasets for an impact assessment study in the agricultural sector

  10. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph

    2016-01-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produ......-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.......The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce...... similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries...

  11. MOPS-1.0: towards a model for the regulation of the global oceanic nitrogen budget by marine biogeochemical processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Kriest

    2015-09-01

    Analysis of the model misfit with respect to observed biogeochemical tracer distributions and fluxes suggests a particle flux profile close to the one suggested by Martin et al. (1987. Simulated pelagic denitrification best agrees with the lower values between 59 and 84 Tg N yr−1 recently estimated by other authors.

  12. Earth System Dynamics: The Determination and Interpretation of the Global Angular Momentum Budget using the Earth Observing System. Revised

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this investigation has been to examine the mass and momentum exchange between the atmosphere, oceans, solid Earth, hydrosphere, and cryosphere. The investigation has focused on changes in the Earth's gravity field, its rotation rate, atmospheric and oceanic circulation, global sea level change, ice sheet change, and global ground water circulation observed by contemporary sensors and models. The primary component of the mass exchange is water. The geodetic observables provided by these satellite sensors are used to study the transport of water mass in the hydrological cycle from one component of the Earth to another, and they are also used to evaluate the accuracy of models. As such, the investigation is concerned with the overall global water cycle. This report provides a description of scientific, educational and programmatic activities conducted during the period July 1, 1999 through June 30,2000. Research has continued into measurements of time-varying gravity and its relationship to Earth rotation. Variability of angular momentum and the related excitation of polar motion and Earth rotation have been examined for the atmosphere and oceans at time-scales of weeks to several years. To assess the performance of hydrologic models, we have compared geodetic signals derived from them with those observed by satellites. One key component is the interannual mass variability of the oceans obtained by direct observations from altimetry after removing steric signals. Further studies have been conducted on the steric model to quantify its accuracy at global and basin-scales. The results suggest a significant loss of water mass from the Oceans to the land on time-scales longer than 1-year. These signals are not reproduced in any of the models, which have poorly determined interannual fresh water fluxes. Output from a coupled atmosphere-ocean model testing long-term climate change hypotheses has been compared to simulated errors from the Gravity Recovery and

  13. Preliminary estimation of Vulcano of CO2 budget and continuous monitoring of summit soil CO2 flux

    OpenAIRE

    Inguaggiato, S.; Mazot, A.; Diliberto, I. S.; Rouwet, D.; Vita, F.; Capasso, G.; Bobrowski, N.; Inguaggiato, C.; Grassa, F.

    2008-01-01

    Total CO2 output from fumaroles, soil gases, bubbling and water dissolved gases were estimated at Vulcano Island, Italy. The fumaroles output has been estimated from SO2 plume flux, while soil flux emission has been carried out through 730 CO2 fluxes measured on the island surface, performed by means of accumulation chamber method. Vulcano Island, located in the Aeolian Archipelago, is an active volcano that has been in state of solphataric activity, since the last eru...

  14. Distancing from experienced self: how global-versus-local perception affects estimation of psychological distance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberman, Nira; Förster, Jens

    2009-08-01

    In 4 studies, the authors examined the prediction derived from construal level theory (CLT) that higher level of perceptual construal would enhance estimated egocentric psychological distance. The authors primed participants with global perception, local perception, or both (the control condition). Relative to the control condition, global processing made participants estimate larger psychological distances in time (Study 1), space (Study 2), social distance (Study 3), and hypotheticality (Study 4). Local processing had the opposite effect. Consistent with CLT, all studies show that the effect of global-versus-local processing did emerge when participants estimated egocentric distances, which are distances from the experienced self in the here and now, but did not emerge with temporal distances not from now (Study 1), spatial distances not from here (Study 2), social distances not from the self (Study 3), or hypothetical events that did not involve altering an experienced reality (Study 4).

  15. GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget (SRB)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) Release-3.0 data sets contains global 3-hourly, daily, monthly/3-hourly, and monthly averages of surface and top-of...

  16. Economic impact analysis for global warming: Sensitivity analysis for cost and benefit estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ierland, E.C. van; Derksen, L.

    1994-01-01

    Proper policies for the prevention or mitigation of the effects of global warming require profound analysis of the costs and benefits of alternative policy strategies. Given the uncertainty about the scientific aspects of the process of global warming, in this paper a sensitivity analysis for the impact of various estimates of costs and benefits of greenhouse gas reduction strategies is carried out to analyze the potential social and economic impacts of climate change

  17. Global gradient estimates for divergence-type elliptic problems involving general nonlinear operators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Yumi

    2018-05-01

    We study nonlinear elliptic problems with nonstandard growth and ellipticity related to an N-function. We establish global Calderón-Zygmund estimates of the weak solutions in the framework of Orlicz spaces over bounded non-smooth domains. Moreover, we prove a global regularity result for asymptotically regular problems which are getting close to the regular problems considered, when the gradient variable goes to infinity.

  18. Artificial intelligence techniques applied to hourly global irradiance estimation from satellite-derived cloud index

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zarzalejo, L.F.; Ramirez, L.; Polo, J. [DER-CIEMAT, Madrid (Spain). Renewable Energy Dept.

    2005-07-01

    Artificial intelligence techniques, such as fuzzy logic and neural networks, have been used for estimating hourly global radiation from satellite images. The models have been fitted to measured global irradiance data from 15 Spanish terrestrial stations. Both satellite imaging data and terrestrial information from the years 1994, 1995 and 1996 were used. The results of these artificial intelligence models were compared to a multivariate regression based upon Heliosat I model. A general better behaviour was observed for the artificial intelligence models. (author)

  19. Artificial intelligence techniques applied to hourly global irradiance estimation from satellite-derived cloud index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarzalejo, Luis F.; Ramirez, Lourdes; Polo, Jesus

    2005-01-01

    Artificial intelligence techniques, such as fuzzy logic and neural networks, have been used for estimating hourly global radiation from satellite images. The models have been fitted to measured global irradiance data from 15 Spanish terrestrial stations. Both satellite imaging data and terrestrial information from the years 1994, 1995 and 1996 were used. The results of these artificial intelligence models were compared to a multivariate regression based upon Heliosat I model. A general better behaviour was observed for the artificial intelligence models

  20. Budget Options

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    ... (including the off-budget Social Security trust funds) to $281 billion. That surplus would be the largest in history in nominal dollars and the largest since 1948 as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP...

  1. NCTN Budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Learn about the budget for the National Clinical Trials Network (NCTN), a National Cancer Institute program that gives funds and other support to cancer research organizations to conduct cancer clinical trials.

  2. Improving Global Gross Primary Productivity Estimates by Computing Optimum Light Use Efficiencies Using Flux Tower Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madani, Nima; Kimball, John S.; Running, Steven W.

    2017-11-01

    In the light use efficiency (LUE) approach of estimating the gross primary productivity (GPP), plant productivity is linearly related to absorbed photosynthetically active radiation assuming that plants absorb and convert solar energy into biomass within a maximum LUE (LUEmax) rate, which is assumed to vary conservatively within a given biome type. However, it has been shown that photosynthetic efficiency can vary within biomes. In this study, we used 149 global CO2 flux towers to derive the optimum LUE (LUEopt) under prevailing climate conditions for each tower location, stratified according to model training and test sites. Unlike LUEmax, LUEopt varies according to heterogeneous landscape characteristics and species traits. The LUEopt data showed large spatial variability within and between biome types, so that a simple biome classification explained only 29% of LUEopt variability over 95 global tower training sites. The use of explanatory variables in a mixed effect regression model explained 62.2% of the spatial variability in tower LUEopt data. The resulting regression model was used for global extrapolation of the LUEopt data and GPP estimation. The GPP estimated using the new LUEopt map showed significant improvement relative to global tower data, including a 15% R2 increase and 34% root-mean-square error reduction relative to baseline GPP calculations derived from biome-specific LUEmax constants. The new global LUEopt map is expected to improve the performance of LUE-based GPP algorithms for better assessment and monitoring of global terrestrial productivity and carbon dynamics.

  3. CDO budgeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nesladek, Pavel; Wiswesser, Andreas; Sass, Björn; Mauermann, Sebastian

    2008-04-01

    The Critical dimension off-target (CDO) is a key parameter for mask house customer, affecting directly the performance of the mask. The CDO is the difference between the feature size target and the measured feature size. The change of CD during the process is either compensated within the process or by data correction. These compensation methods are commonly called process bias and data bias, respectively. The difference between data bias and process bias in manufacturing results in systematic CDO error, however, this systematic error does not take into account the instability of the process bias. This instability is a result of minor variations - instabilities of manufacturing processes and changes in materials and/or logistics. Using several masks the CDO of the manufacturing line can be estimated. For systematic investigation of the unit process contribution to CDO and analysis of the factors influencing the CDO contributors, a solid understanding of each unit process and huge number of masks is necessary. Rough identification of contributing processes and splitting of the final CDO variation between processes can be done with approx. 50 masks with identical design, material and process. Such amount of data allows us to identify the main contributors and estimate the effect of them by means of Analysis of variance (ANOVA) combined with multivariate analysis. The analysis does not provide information about the root cause of the variation within the particular unit process, however, it provides a good estimate of the impact of the process on the stability of the manufacturing line. Additionally this analysis can be used to identify possible interaction between processes, which cannot be investigated if only single processes are considered. Goal of this work is to evaluate limits for CDO budgeting models given by the precision and the number of measurements as well as partitioning the variation within the manufacturing process. The CDO variation splits according to

  4. Department of the Navy FY 1994 Budget Estimates. R, D, T & E Descriptive Summaries Submitted to Congress April 1993

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-04-01

    8217 (0) Complete fielding of system via instatllation and testing at each site; reach Pull Operational capability. C. (U) Transition software to the...covert naval operations. The goaLis to develop technology required to of Special Warfare units. An important See-Air-Land (SEAL) mission is the pre...by the COPERNICUS concept of "user pull ". Architecture will be consistent with DOD Global Grid. This ATD complements the DARPA WJAR]EA] Initiative. b

  5. A fuzzy regression with support vector machine approach to the estimation of horizontal global solar radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baser, Furkan; Demirhan, Haydar

    2017-01-01

    Accurate estimation of the amount of horizontal global solar radiation for a particular field is an important input for decision processes in solar radiation investments. In this article, we focus on the estimation of yearly mean daily horizontal global solar radiation by using an approach that utilizes fuzzy regression functions with support vector machine (FRF-SVM). This approach is not seriously affected by outlier observations and does not suffer from the over-fitting problem. To demonstrate the utility of the FRF-SVM approach in the estimation of horizontal global solar radiation, we conduct an empirical study over a dataset collected in Turkey and applied the FRF-SVM approach with several kernel functions. Then, we compare the estimation accuracy of the FRF-SVM approach to an adaptive neuro-fuzzy system and a coplot supported-genetic programming approach. We observe that the FRF-SVM approach with a Gaussian kernel function is not affected by both outliers and over-fitting problem and gives the most accurate estimates of horizontal global solar radiation among the applied approaches. Consequently, the use of hybrid fuzzy functions and support vector machine approaches is found beneficial in long-term forecasting of horizontal global solar radiation over a region with complex climatic and terrestrial characteristics. - Highlights: • A fuzzy regression functions with support vector machines approach is proposed. • The approach is robust against outlier observations and over-fitting problem. • Estimation accuracy of the model is superior to several existent alternatives. • A new solar radiation estimation model is proposed for the region of Turkey. • The model is useful under complex terrestrial and climatic conditions.

  6. Evaluation of long-term trends in hydrologic and water-quality conditions, and estimation of water budgets through 2013, Chester County, Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sloto, Ronald A.; Reif, Andrew G.

    2017-06-02

    An evaluation of trends in hydrologic and water quality conditions and estimation of water budgets through 2013 was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Chester County Water Resources Authority. Long-term hydrologic, meteorologic, and biologic data collected in Chester County, Pennsylvania, which included streamflow, groundwater levels, surface-water quality, biotic integrity, precipitation, and air temperature were analyzed to determine possible trends or changes in hydrologic conditions. Statistically significant trends were determined by applying the Kendall rank correlation test; the magnitudes of the trends were determined using the Sen slope estimator. Water budgets for eight selected watersheds were updated and a new water budget was developed for the Marsh Creek watershed. An average water budget for Chester County was developed using the eight selected watersheds and the new Marsh Creek water budget.Annual and monthly mean streamflow, base flow, and runoff were analyzed for trends at 10 streamgages. The periods of record at the 10 streamgages ranged from 1961‒2013 to 1988‒2013. The only statistically significant trend for annual mean streamflow was for West Branch Brandywine Creek near Honey Brook, Pa. (01480300) where annual mean streamflow increased 1.6 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) per decade. The greatest increase in monthly mean streamflow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 47 ft3/s per decade. No statistically significant trends in annual mean base flow or runoff were determined for the 10 streamgages. The greatest increase in monthly mean base flow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 26 ft3/s per decade.The magnitude of peaks greater than a base streamflow was analyzed for trends for 12 streamgages. The period of record at the 12 stream gages ranged from 1912‒2012 to 2004–11. Fifty percent of the streamgages showed a

  7. Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis: a review of the epidemiology and estimation of the global burden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platt, Lauren R; Estívariz, Concepción F; Sutter, Roland W

    2014-11-01

    Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP) is a rare adverse event associated with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV). This review summarizes the epidemiology and provides a global burden estimate. A literature review was conducted to abstract the epidemiology and calculate the risk of VAPP. A bootstrap method was applied to calculate global VAPP burden estimates. Trends in VAPP epidemiology varied by country income level. In the low-income country, the majority of cases occurred in individuals who had received >3 doses of OPV (63%), whereas in middle and high-income countries, most cases occurred in recipients after their first OPV dose or unvaccinated contacts (81%). Using all risk estimates, VAPP risk was 4.7 cases per million births (range, 2.4-9.7), leading to a global annual burden estimate of 498 cases (range, 255-1018). If the analysis is limited to estimates from countries that currently use OPV, the VAPP risk is 3.8 cases per million births (range, 2.9-4.7) and a burden of 399 cases (range, 306-490). Because many high-income countries have replaced OPV with inactivated poliovirus vaccine, the VAPP burden is concentrated in lower-income countries. The planned universal introduction of inactivated poliovirus vaccine is likely to substantially decrease the global VAPP burden by 80%-90%. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. A critical review on the estimation of daily global solar radiation from sunshine duration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yorukoglu, Mehmet; Celik, Ali Naci

    2006-01-01

    Models such as the Angstroem-Prescott equation are used to estimate global solar radiation from sunshine duration. In the literature, researchers investigate either the goodness of the model itself or the goodness of the estimation of global solar radiation based on a set of statistical parameters such as R 2 , RMSE, MBE, MABE, MPE and MAPE. If the former is the objective, then the statistical analysis should naturally be based on H/H o - S/S o (the ratio of daily solar radiation to extraterrestrial daily solar radiation vs. the ratio of sunshine duration to day length). If the latter is investigated, then the statistical analysis should be based on H c - H m (calculated daily solar radiation vs. measured daily solar radiation). A literature survey undertaken in the present article showed that these two data sets are apt to be confused, drawing the statistical parameters to be used in assessment of the estimation model from the latter data set or the vice versa set. The statistical parameters are clearly derived from the basics for both of the data sets, and the inconsistencies caused by this confusion and other factors are exposed. A case study of the estimation models and global solar radiation estimation from sunshine duration is presented using five different models (linear, quadratic, cubic, logarithmic and exponential), which are the most common models used in the literature, based on 6 years long measured hourly global solar radiation data

  9. Global and Regional Estimates of Prevalent and Incident Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 Infections in 2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharine J Looker

    Full Text Available Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1 commonly causes orolabial ulcers, while HSV-2 commonly causes genital ulcers. However, HSV-1 is an increasing cause of genital infection. Previously, the World Health Organization estimated the global burden of HSV-2 for 2003 and for 2012. The global burden of HSV-1 has not been estimated.We fitted a constant-incidence model to pooled HSV-1 prevalence data from literature searches for 6 World Health Organization regions and used 2012 population data to derive global numbers of 0-49-year-olds with prevalent and incident HSV-1 infection. To estimate genital HSV-1, we applied values for the proportion of incident infections that are genital.We estimated that 3709 million people (range: 3440-3878 million aged 0-49 years had prevalent HSV-1 infection in 2012 (67%, with highest prevalence in Africa, South-East Asia and Western Pacific. Assuming 50% of incident infections among 15-49-year-olds are genital, an estimated 140 million (range: 67-212 million people had prevalent genital HSV-1 infection, most of which occurred in the Americas, Europe and Western Pacific.The global burden of HSV-1 infection is huge. Genital HSV-1 burden can be substantial but varies widely by region. Future control efforts, including development of HSV vaccines, should consider the epidemiology of HSV-1 in addition to HSV-2, and especially the relative contribution of HSV-1 to genital infection.

  10. Global Burden of Leptospirosis: Estimated in Terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul R Torgerson

    Full Text Available Leptospirosis, a spirochaetal zoonosis, occurs in diverse epidemiological settings and affects vulnerable populations, such as rural subsistence farmers and urban slum dwellers. Although leptospirosis can cause life-threatening disease, there is no global burden of disease estimate in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs available.We utilised the results of a parallel publication that reported global estimates of morbidity and mortality due to leptospirosis. We estimated Years of Life Lost (YLLs from age and gender stratified mortality rates. Years of Life with Disability (YLDs were developed from a simple disease model indicating likely sequelae. DALYs were estimated from the sum of YLLs and YLDs. The study suggested that globally approximately 2.90 million DALYs are lost per annum (UIs 1.25-4.54 million from the approximately annual 1.03 million cases reported previously. Males are predominantly affected with an estimated 2.33 million DALYs (UIs 0.98-3.69 or approximately 80% of the total burden. For comparison, this is over 70% of the global burden of cholera estimated by GBD 2010. Tropical regions of South and South-east Asia, Western Pacific, Central and South America, and Africa had the highest estimated leptospirosis disease burden.Leptospirosis imparts a significant health burden worldwide, which approach or exceed those encountered for a number of other zoonotic and neglected tropical diseases. The study findings indicate that highest burden estimates occur in resource-poor tropical countries, which include regions of Africa where the burden of leptospirosis has been under-appreciated and possibly misallocated to other febrile illnesses such as malaria.

  11. Identifying grain-size dependent errors on global forest area estimates and carbon studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daolan Zheng; Linda S. Heath; Mark J. Ducey

    2008-01-01

    Satellite-derived coarse-resolution data are typically used for conducting global analyses. But the forest areas estimated from coarse-resolution maps (e.g., 1 km) inevitably differ from a corresponding fine-resolution map (such as a 30-m map) that would be closer to ground truth. A better understanding of changes in grain size on area estimation will improve our...

  12. Importance of representing optical depth variability for estimates of global line-shaped contrail radiative forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kärcher, Bernd; Burkhardt, Ulrike; Ponater, Michael; Frömming, Christine

    2010-11-09

    Estimates of the global radiative forcing by line-shaped contrails differ mainly due to the large uncertainty in contrail optical depth. Most contrails are optically thin so that their radiative forcing is roughly proportional to their optical depth and increases with contrail coverage. In recent assessments, the best estimate of mean contrail radiative forcing was significantly reduced, because global climate model simulations pointed at lower optical depth values than earlier studies. We revise these estimates by comparing the probability distribution of contrail optical depth diagnosed with a climate model with the distribution derived from a microphysical, cloud-scale model constrained by satellite observations over the United States. By assuming that the optical depth distribution from the cloud model is more realistic than that from the climate model, and by taking the difference between the observed and simulated optical depth over the United States as globally representative, we quantify uncertainties in the climate model's diagnostic contrail parameterization. Revising the climate model results accordingly increases the global mean radiative forcing estimate for line-shaped contrails by a factor of 3.3, from 3.5 mW/m(2) to 11.6 mW/m(2) for the year 1992. Furthermore, the satellite observations and the cloud model point at higher global mean optical depth of detectable contrails than often assumed in radiative transfer (off-line) studies. Therefore, we correct estimates of contrail radiative forcing from off-line studies as well. We suggest that the global net radiative forcing of line-shaped persistent contrails is in the range 8-20 mW/m(2) for the air traffic in the year 2000.

  13. Estimating the carbon budget and maximizing future carbon uptake for a temperate forest region in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Forests of the Midwest U.S. provide numerous ecosystem services. Two of these, carbon sequestration and wood production, are often portrayed as conflicting. Currently, carbon management and biofuel policies are being developed to reduce atmospheric CO2 and national dependence on foreign oil, and increase carbon storage in ecosystems. However, the biological and industrial forest carbon cycles are rarely studied in a whole-system structure. The forest system carbon balance is the difference between the biological (net ecosystem production) and industrial (net emissions from forest industry) forest carbon cycles, but to date this critical whole system analysis is lacking. This study presents a model of the forest system, uses it to compute the carbon balance, and outlines a methodology to maximize future carbon uptake in a managed forest region. Results We used a coupled forest ecosystem process and forest products life cycle inventory model for a regional temperate forest in the Midwestern U.S., and found the net system carbon balance for this 615,000 ha forest was positive (2.29 t C ha-1 yr-1). The industrial carbon budget was typically less than 10% of the biological system annually, and averaged averaged 0.082 t C ha-1 yr-1. Net C uptake over the next 100-years increased by 22% or 0.33 t C ha-1 yr-1 relative to the current harvest rate in the study region under the optized harvest regime. Conclusions The forest’s biological ecosystem current and future carbon uptake capacity is largely determined by forest harvest practices that occurred over a century ago, but we show an optimized harvesting strategy would increase future carbon sequestration, or wood production, by 20-30%, reduce long transportation chain emissions, and maintain many desirable stand structural attributes that are correlated to biodiversity. Our results for this forest region suggest that increasing harvest over the next 100 years increases the strength of

  14. Estimating the carbon budget and maximizing future carbon uptake for a temperate forest region in the U.S.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peckham Scott D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Forests of the Midwest U.S. provide numerous ecosystem services. Two of these, carbon sequestration and wood production, are often portrayed as conflicting. Currently, carbon management and biofuel policies are being developed to reduce atmospheric CO2 and national dependence on foreign oil, and increase carbon storage in ecosystems. However, the biological and industrial forest carbon cycles are rarely studied in a whole-system structure. The forest system carbon balance is the difference between the biological (net ecosystem production and industrial (net emissions from forest industry forest carbon cycles, but to date this critical whole system analysis is lacking. This study presents a model of the forest system, uses it to compute the carbon balance, and outlines a methodology to maximize future carbon uptake in a managed forest region. Results We used a coupled forest ecosystem process and forest products life cycle inventory model for a regional temperate forest in the Midwestern U.S., and found the net system carbon balance for this 615,000 ha forest was positive (2.29 t C ha-1 yr-1. The industrial carbon budget was typically less than 10% of the biological system annually, and averaged averaged 0.082 t C ha-1 yr-1. Net C uptake over the next 100-years increased by 22% or 0.33 t C ha-1 yr-1 relative to the current harvest rate in the study region under the optized harvest regime. Conclusions The forest’s biological ecosystem current and future carbon uptake capacity is largely determined by forest harvest practices that occurred over a century ago, but we show an optimized harvesting strategy would increase future carbon sequestration, or wood production, by 20-30%, reduce long transportation chain emissions, and maintain many desirable stand structural attributes that are correlated to biodiversity. Our results for this forest region suggest that increasing harvest over the next 100

  15. The atmospheric impacts of monoterpene ozonolysis on global stabilised Criegee intermediate budgets and SO2 oxidation: experiment, theory and modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Newland

    2018-05-01

    CHOO. The experimental results are interpreted through theoretical studies of the SCI unimolecular reactions and bimolecular reactions with H2O, characterised for α-pinene and β-pinene at the M06-2X/aug-cc-pVTZ level of theory. The theoretically derived rates agree with the experimental results within the uncertainties. A global modelling study, applying the experimental results within the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, suggests that > 97 % of the total monoterpene-derived global SCI burden is comprised of SCIs with a structure that determines that they react slowly with water and that their atmospheric fate is dominated by unimolecular reactions. Seasonally averaged boundary layer concentrations of monoterpene-derived SCIs reach up to 1.4  ×  104 cm−3 in regions of elevated monoterpene emissions in the tropics. Reactions of monoterpene-derived SCIs with SO2 account for < 1 % globally but may account for up to 60 % of the gas-phase SO2 removal over areas of tropical forests, with significant localised impacts on the formation of sulfate aerosol and hence the lifetime and distribution of SO2.

  16. The atmospheric impacts of monoterpene ozonolysis on global stabilised Criegee intermediate budgets and SO2 oxidation: experiment, theory and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newland, Mike J.; Rickard, Andrew R.; Sherwen, Tomás; Evans, Mathew J.; Vereecken, Luc; Muñoz, Amalia; Ródenas, Milagros; Bloss, William J.

    2018-05-01

    interpreted through theoretical studies of the SCI unimolecular reactions and bimolecular reactions with H2O, characterised for α-pinene and β-pinene at the M06-2X/aug-cc-pVTZ level of theory. The theoretically derived rates agree with the experimental results within the uncertainties. A global modelling study, applying the experimental results within the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, suggests that > 97 % of the total monoterpene-derived global SCI burden is comprised of SCIs with a structure that determines that they react slowly with water and that their atmospheric fate is dominated by unimolecular reactions. Seasonally averaged boundary layer concentrations of monoterpene-derived SCIs reach up to 1.4 × 104 cm-3 in regions of elevated monoterpene emissions in the tropics. Reactions of monoterpene-derived SCIs with SO2 account for < 1 % globally but may account for up to 60 % of the gas-phase SO2 removal over areas of tropical forests, with significant localised impacts on the formation of sulfate aerosol and hence the lifetime and distribution of SO2.

  17. Global CO2 efficiency: Country-wise estimates using a stochastic cost frontier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrala, Risto; Goel, Rajeev K.

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) efficiency by employing a stochastic cost frontier analysis of about 170 countries in 1997 and 2007. The main contribution lies in providing a new approach to environmental efficiency estimation, in which the efficiency estimates quantify the distance from the policy objective of minimum emissions. We are able to examine a very large pool of nations and provide country-wise efficiency estimates. We estimate three econometric models, corresponding with alternative interpretations of the Cancun vision (Conference of the Parties 2011). The models reveal progress in global environmental efficiency during a preceding decade. The estimates indicate vast differences in efficiency levels, and efficiency changes across countries. The highest efficiency levels are observed in Africa and Europe, while the lowest are clustered around China. The largest efficiency gains were observed in central and eastern Europe. CO 2 efficiency also improved in the US and China, the two largest emitters, but their ranking in terms of CO 2 efficiency deteriorated. Policy implications are discussed. - Highlights: ► We estimate global environmental efficiency in line with the Cancun vision, using a stochastic cost frontier. ► The study covers 170 countries during a 10 year period, ending in 2007. ► The biggest improvements occurred in Europe, and efficiency falls in South America. ► The efficiency ranking of US and China, the largest emitters, deteriorated. ► In 2007, highest efficiency was observed in Africa and Europe, and the lowest around China.

  18. Applications of TRMM-based Multi-Satellite Precipitation Estimation for Global Runoff Simulation: Prototyping a Global Flood Monitoring System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Yang; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Pierce, Harold

    2008-01-01

    Advances in flood monitoring/forecasting have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-, national-, continental-, or even global-scale areas) and flood-relevant time scale. With the recent availability of satellite rainfall estimates at fine time and space resolution, this paper describes a prototype research framework for global flood monitoring by combining real-time satellite observations with a database of global terrestrial characteristics through a hydrologically relevant modeling scheme. Four major components included in the framework are (1) real-time precipitation input from NASA TRMM-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA); (2) a central geospatial database to preprocess the land surface characteristics: water divides, slopes, soils, land use, flow directions, flow accumulation, drainage network etc.; (3) a modified distributed hydrological model to convert rainfall to runoff and route the flow through the stream network in order to predict the timing and severity of the flood wave, and (4) an open-access web interface to quickly disseminate flood alerts for potential decision-making. Retrospective simulations for 1998-2006 demonstrate that the Global Flood Monitor (GFM) system performs consistently at both station and catchment levels. The GFM website (experimental version) has been running at near real-time in an effort to offer a cost-effective solution to the ultimate challenge of building natural disaster early warning systems for the data-sparse regions of the world. The interactive GFM website shows close-up maps of the flood risks overlaid on topography/population or integrated with the Google-Earth visualization tool. One additional capability, which extends forecast lead-time by assimilating QPF into the GFM, also will be implemented in the future.

  19. BEYOND BUDGETING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edo Cvrkalj

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Traditional budgeting principles, with strictly defined business goals, have been, since 1998, slowly growing into more sophisticated and organization-adjusted alternative budgeting concepts. One of those alternative concepts is the “Beyond budgeting” model with an implemented performance effects measuring process. In order for the model to be practicable, budget planning and control has to be reoriented to the “bottom up” planning and control approach. In today’s modern business surroundings one has to take both present and future opportunities and threats into consideration, by valorizing them in a budget which would allow a company to realize a whole pallet of advantages over the traditional budgeting principles which are presented later in the article. It is essential to emphasize the importance of successfully implementing the new budgeting principles within an organization. If the implementation has been lacking and done without a higher goal in mind, it is easily possible that the process has been implemented without coordination, planning and control framework within the organization itself. Further in the article we present an overview of managerial techniques and instruments within the “Beyond budgeting” model such as balanced scorecard, rolling forecast, dashboard, KPI and other supporting instruments. Lastly we define seven steps for implementing the “Beyond budgeting” model and offer a comparison of “Beyond budgeting” model against traditional budgeting principles which lists twelve reasons why “Beyond budgeting” is better suited to modern and market-oriented organizations. Each company faces those challenges in their own characteristic way but implementing new dynamic planning models will soon become essential for surviving in the market.

  20. Global Kalman filter approaches to estimate absolute angles of lower limb segments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nogueira, Samuel L; Lambrecht, Stefan; Inoue, Roberto S; Bortole, Magdo; Montagnoli, Arlindo N; Moreno, Juan C; Rocon, Eduardo; Terra, Marco H; Siqueira, Adriano A G; Pons, Jose L

    2017-05-16

    In this paper we propose the use of global Kalman filters (KFs) to estimate absolute angles of lower limb segments. Standard approaches adopt KFs to improve the performance of inertial sensors based on individual link configurations. In consequence, for a multi-body system like a lower limb exoskeleton, the inertial measurements of one link (e.g., the shank) are not taken into account in other link angle estimations (e.g., foot). Global KF approaches, on the other hand, correlate the collective contribution of all signals from lower limb segments observed in the state-space model through the filtering process. We present a novel global KF (matricial global KF) relying only on inertial sensor data, and validate both this KF and a previously presented global KF (Markov Jump Linear Systems, MJLS-based KF), which fuses data from inertial sensors and encoders from an exoskeleton. We furthermore compare both methods to the commonly used local KF. The results indicate that the global KFs performed significantly better than the local KF, with an average root mean square error (RMSE) of respectively 0.942° for the MJLS-based KF, 1.167° for the matrical global KF, and 1.202° for the local KFs. Including the data from the exoskeleton encoders also resulted in a significant increase in performance. The results indicate that the current practice of using KFs based on local models is suboptimal. Both the presented KF based on inertial sensor data, as well our previously presented global approach fusing inertial sensor data with data from exoskeleton encoders, were superior to local KFs. We therefore recommend to use global KFs for gait analysis and exoskeleton control.

  1. Global Performance of a Fast Parameterization Scheme for Estimating Surface Solar Radiation from MODIS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, W.; Yang, K.; Sun, Z.; Qin, J.; Niu, X.

    2016-12-01

    A fast parameterization scheme named SUNFLUX is used in this study to estimate instantaneous surface solar radiation (SSR) based on products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor onboard both Terra and Aqua platforms. The scheme mainly takes into account the absorption and scattering processes due to clouds, aerosols and gas in the atmosphere. The estimated instantaneous SSR is evaluated against surface observations obtained from seven stations of the Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD), four stations in the North China Plain (NCP) and 40 stations of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN). The statistical results for evaluation against these three datasets show that the relative root-mean-square error (RMSE) values of SUNFLUX are less than 15%, 16% and 17%, respectively. Daily SSR is derived through temporal upscaling from the MODIS-based instantaneous SSR estimates, and is validated against surface observations. The relative RMSE values for daily SSR estimates are about 16% at the seven SURFRAD stations, four NCP stations, 40 BSRN stations and 90 China Meteorological Administration (CMA) radiation stations.

  2. Measuring galaxy cluster masses with CMB lensing using a Maximum Likelihood estimator: statistical and systematic error budgets for future experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raghunathan, Srinivasan; Patil, Sanjaykumar; Bianchini, Federico; Reichardt, Christian L. [School of Physics, University of Melbourne, 313 David Caro building, Swanston St and Tin Alley, Parkville VIC 3010 (Australia); Baxter, Eric J. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Pennsylvania, 209 S. 33rd Street, Philadelphia, PA 19104 (United States); Bleem, Lindsey E. [Argonne National Laboratory, High-Energy Physics Division, 9700 S. Cass Avenue, Argonne, IL 60439 (United States); Crawford, Thomas M. [Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics, University of Chicago, 5640 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Holder, Gilbert P. [Department of Astronomy and Department of Physics, University of Illinois, 1002 West Green St., Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Manzotti, Alessandro, E-mail: srinivasan.raghunathan@unimelb.edu.au, E-mail: s.patil2@student.unimelb.edu.au, E-mail: ebax@sas.upenn.edu, E-mail: federico.bianchini@unimelb.edu.au, E-mail: bleeml@uchicago.edu, E-mail: tcrawfor@kicp.uchicago.edu, E-mail: gholder@illinois.edu, E-mail: manzotti@uchicago.edu, E-mail: christian.reichardt@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Chicago, 5640 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States)

    2017-08-01

    We develop a Maximum Likelihood estimator (MLE) to measure the masses of galaxy clusters through the impact of gravitational lensing on the temperature and polarization anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). We show that, at low noise levels in temperature, this optimal estimator outperforms the standard quadratic estimator by a factor of two. For polarization, we show that the Stokes Q/U maps can be used instead of the traditional E- and B-mode maps without losing information. We test and quantify the bias in the recovered lensing mass for a comprehensive list of potential systematic errors. Using realistic simulations, we examine the cluster mass uncertainties from CMB-cluster lensing as a function of an experiment's beam size and noise level. We predict the cluster mass uncertainties will be 3 - 6% for SPT-3G, AdvACT, and Simons Array experiments with 10,000 clusters and less than 1% for the CMB-S4 experiment with a sample containing 100,000 clusters. The mass constraints from CMB polarization are very sensitive to the experimental beam size and map noise level: for a factor of three reduction in either the beam size or noise level, the lensing signal-to-noise improves by roughly a factor of two.

  3. Methodological framework for World Health Organization estimates of the global burden of foodborne disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Devleesschauwer (Brecht); J.A. Haagsma (Juanita); F.J. Angulo (Frederick); D.C. Bellinger (David); D. Cole (Dana); D. Döpfer (Dörte); A. Fazil (Aamir); E.M. Fèvre (Eric); H.J. Gibb (Herman); T. Hald (Tine); M.D. Kirk (Martyn); R.J. Lake (Robin); C. Maertens De Noordhout (Charline); C. Mathers (Colin); S.A. McDonald (Scott); S.M. Pires (Sara); N. Speybroeck (Niko); M.K. Thomas (Kate); D. Torgerson; F. Wu (Felicia); A.H. Havelaar (Arie); N. Praet (Nicolas)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractBackground: The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This paper describes the methodological framework developed by FERG's Computational Task Force

  4. A review of global potentially available cropland estimates and their consequences for model-based assessments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eitelberg, D.A.; van Vliet, J.; Verburg, P.H.

    2015-01-01

    The world's population is growing and demand for food, feed, fiber, and fuel is increasing, placing greater demand on land and its resources for crop production. We review previously published estimates of global scale cropland availability, discuss the underlying assumptions that lead to

  5. Can a sample of Landsat sensor scenes reliably estimate the global extent of tropical deforestation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. L. Czaplewski

    2003-01-01

    Tucker and Townshend (2000) conclude that wall-to-wall coverage is needed to avoid gross errors in estimations of deforestation rates' because tropical deforestation is concentrated along roads and rivers. They specifically question the reliability of the 10% sample of Landsat sensor scenes used in the global remote sensing survey conducted by the Food and...

  6. Synthesizing Global and Local Datasets to Estimate Jurisdictional Forest Carbon Fluxes in Berau, Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griscom, Bronson W; Ellis, Peter W; Baccini, Alessandro; Marthinus, Delon; Evans, Jeffrey S; Ruslandi

    2016-01-01

    Forest conservation efforts are increasingly being implemented at the scale of sub-national jurisdictions in order to mitigate global climate change and provide other ecosystem services. We see an urgent need for robust estimates of historic forest carbon emissions at this scale, as the basis for credible measures of climate and other benefits achieved. Despite the arrival of a new generation of global datasets on forest area change and biomass, confusion remains about how to produce credible jurisdictional estimates of forest emissions. We demonstrate a method for estimating the relevant historic forest carbon fluxes within the Regency of Berau in eastern Borneo, Indonesia. Our method integrates best available global and local datasets, and includes a comprehensive analysis of uncertainty at the regency scale. We find that Berau generated 8.91 ± 1.99 million tonnes of net CO2 emissions per year during 2000-2010. Berau is an early frontier landscape where gross emissions are 12 times higher than gross sequestration. Yet most (85%) of Berau's original forests are still standing. The majority of net emissions were due to conversion of native forests to unspecified agriculture (43% of total), oil palm (28%), and fiber plantations (9%). Most of the remainder was due to legal commercial selective logging (17%). Our overall uncertainty estimate offers an independent basis for assessing three other estimates for Berau. Two other estimates were above the upper end of our uncertainty range. We emphasize the importance of including an uncertainty range for all parameters of the emissions equation to generate a comprehensive uncertainty estimate-which has not been done before. We believe comprehensive estimates of carbon flux uncertainty are increasingly important as national and international institutions are challenged with comparing alternative estimates and identifying a credible range of historic emissions values.

  7. Estimation of Global 1km-grid Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Part I: Developing Inputs and Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasai, T.; Murakami, K.; Kato, S.; Matsunaga, T.; Saigusa, N.; Hiraki, K.

    2015-12-01

    Global terrestrial carbon cycle largely depends on a spatial pattern in land cover type, which is heterogeneously-distributed over regional and global scales. However, most studies, which aimed at the estimation of carbon exchanges between ecosystem and atmosphere, remained within several tens of kilometers grid spatial resolution, and the results have not been enough to understand the detailed pattern of carbon exchanges based on ecological community. Improving the sophistication of spatial resolution is obviously necessary to enhance the accuracy of carbon exchanges. Moreover, the improvement may contribute to global warming awareness, policy makers and other social activities. In this study, we show global terrestrial carbon exchanges (net ecosystem production, net primary production, and gross primary production) with 1km-grid resolution. As methodology for computing the exchanges, we 1) developed a global 1km-grid climate and satellite dataset based on the approach in Setoyama and Sasai (2013); 2) used the satellite-driven biosphere model (Biosphere model integrating Eco-physiological And Mechanistic approaches using Satellite data: BEAMS) (Sasai et al., 2005, 2007, 2011); 3) simulated the carbon exchanges by using the new dataset and BEAMS by the use of a supercomputer that includes 1280 CPU and 320 GPGPU cores (GOSAT RCF of NIES). As a result, we could develop a global uniform system for realistically estimating terrestrial carbon exchange, and evaluate net ecosystem production in each community level; leading to obtain highly detailed understanding of terrestrial carbon exchanges.

  8. Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Muller, Christoph; Ewart, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; hide

    2016-01-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

  9. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Alderman, Phillip D.; Anothai, Jakarat; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Cammarano, Davide; Challinor, Andy; Deryng, Delphine; Sanctis, Giacomo De; Doltra, Jordi; Fereres, Elias; Folberth, Christian; Garcia-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Hunt, Leslie A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Jabloun, Mohamed; Jones, Curtis D.; Kersebaum, Kurt C.; Kimball, Bruce A.; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Nendel, Claas; O'Leary, Garry J.; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Ottman, Michael J.; Palosuo, Taru; Prasad, P. V. Vara; Priesack, Eckart; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Reynolds, Matthew; Rezaei, Ehsan E.; Rötter, Reimund P.; Schmid, Erwin; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Shcherbak, Iurii; Stehfest, Elke; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Thorburn, Peter; Waha, Katharina; Wall, Gerard W.; Wang, Enli; White, Jeffrey W.; Wolf, Joost; Zhao, Zhigan; Zhu, Yan

    2016-12-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify `method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

  10. A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  11. WHE-PAGER Project: A new initiative in estimating global building inventory and its seismic vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.A.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Wald, D.J.; Greene, M.; Comartin, Craig

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquake’s Response (PAGER) Project and the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute’s World Housing Encyclopedia (WHE) are creating a global database of building stocks and their earthquake vulnerability. The WHE already represents a growing, community-developed public database of global housing and its detailed structural characteristics. It currently contains more than 135 reports on particular housing types in 40 countries. The WHE-PAGER effort extends the WHE in several ways: (1) by addressing non-residential construction; (2) by quantifying the prevalence of each building type in both rural and urban areas; (3) by addressing day and night occupancy patterns, (4) by adding quantitative vulnerability estimates from judgment or statistical observation; and (5) by analytically deriving alternative vulnerability estimates using in part laboratory testing.

  12. Estimation of Global 1km-grid Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Part II: Evaluations and Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, K.; Sasai, T.; Kato, S.; Niwa, Y.; Saito, M.; Takagi, H.; Matsunaga, T.; Hiraki, K.; Maksyutov, S. S.; Yokota, T.

    2015-12-01

    Global terrestrial carbon cycle largely depends on a spatial pattern in land cover type, which is heterogeneously-distributed over regional and global scales. Many studies have been trying to reveal distribution of carbon exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and atmosphere for understanding global carbon cycle dynamics by using terrestrial biosphere models, satellite data, inventory data, and so on. However, most studies remained within several tens of kilometers grid spatial resolution, and the results have not been enough to understand the detailed pattern of carbon exchanges based on ecological community and to evaluate the carbon stocks by forest ecosystems in each countries. Improving the sophistication of spatial resolution is obviously necessary to enhance the accuracy of carbon exchanges. Moreover, the improvement may contribute to global warming awareness, policy makers and other social activities. We show global terrestrial carbon exchanges (net ecosystem production, net primary production, and gross primary production) with 1km-grid resolution. The methodology for these estimations are shown in the 2015 AGU FM poster "Estimation of Global 1km-grid Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Part I: Developing Inputs and Modelling". In this study, we evaluated the carbon exchanges in various regions with other approaches. We used the satellite-driven biosphere model (BEAMS) as our estimations, GOSAT L4A CO2 flux data, NEP retrieved by NICAM and CarbonTracer2013 flux data, for period from Jun 2001 to Dec 2012. The temporal patterns for this period were indicated similar trends between BEAMS, GOSAT, NICAM, and CT2013 in many sub-continental regions. Then, we estimated the terrestrial carbon exchanges in each countries, and could indicated the temporal patterns of the exchanges in large carbon stock regions.Global terrestrial carbon cycle largely depends on a spatial pattern of land cover type, which is heterogeneously-distributed over regional and global scales. Many

  13. La redefinición del crimen como presupuesto de una Criminología global/ The redefinition of the crime as a budget of a global criminology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María José Rodríguez Mesa

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available El trabajo parte del hecho de que la criminología del Siglo XXI no puede seguir operando con el mismo concepto de delito que se viene manejando por la doctrina criminológica desde hace más de 25 años. Los cambios políticos, tecnólogicos y sociales acaecidos a nivel global en los últimos quince años exigen un nuevo concepto de crimen capaz de aprehender el desvalor de determinados hechos, con independencia de su condena formal y/o informal. Mediante el análisis de los diferentes intentos de proporcionar un concepto integrado de delito, se propone una redefinición que permita comprender las interacciones que provocan la “no condena” de actos intrínsecamente lesivos y reprochables, como es el caso de los crímenes de Estado o de las grandes corporaciones.

  14. The Role of Heterotrophic Microbial Communities in Estuarine C Budgets and the Biogeochemical C Cycle with Implications for Global Warming: Research Opportunities and Challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, O Roger

    2016-05-01

    Estuaries are among the most productive and economically important marine ecosystems at the land-ocean interface and contribute significantly to exchange of CO2 with the atmosphere. Estuarine microbial communities are major links in the biogeochemical C cycle and flow of C in food webs from primary producers to higher consumers. Considerable attention has been given to bacteria and autotrophic eukaryotes in estuarine ecosystems, but less research has been devoted to the role of heterotrophic eukaryotic microbes. Current research is reviewed here on the role of heterotrophic eukaryotic microbes in C biogeochemistry and ecology of estuaries, with particular attention to C budgets, trophodynamics, and the metabolic fate of C in microbial communities. Some attention is given to the importance of these processes in climate change and global warming, especially in relation to sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 , while also documenting the current paucity of research on the role of eukaryotic microbes that contribute to this larger question of C biogeochemistry and the environment. Some recommendations are made for future directions of research and opportunities of applying newer technologies and analytical approaches to a more refined analysis of the role of C in estuarine microbial community processes and the biogeochemical C cycle. © 2015 The Author Journal of Eukaryotic Microbiology © 2015 International Society of Protistologists.

  15. The Global Burden of Latent Tuberculosis Infection: A Re-estimation Using Mathematical Modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rein M G J Houben

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The existing estimate of the global burden of latent TB infection (LTBI as "one-third" of the world population is nearly 20 y old. Given the importance of controlling LTBI as part of the End TB Strategy for eliminating TB by 2050, changes in demography and scientific understanding, and progress in TB control, it is important to re-assess the global burden of LTBI.We constructed trends in annual risk in infection (ARI for countries between 1934 and 2014 using a combination of direct estimates of ARI from LTBI surveys (131 surveys from 1950 to 2011 and indirect estimates of ARI calculated from World Health Organisation (WHO estimates of smear positive TB prevalence from 1990 to 2014. Gaussian process regression was used to generate ARIs for country-years without data and to represent uncertainty. Estimated ARI time-series were applied to the demography in each country to calculate the number and proportions of individuals infected, recently infected (infected within 2 y, and recently infected with isoniazid (INH-resistant strains. Resulting estimates were aggregated by WHO region. We estimated the contribution of existing infections to TB incidence in 2035 and 2050. In 2014, the global burden of LTBI was 23.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 20.4%-26.4%, amounting to approximately 1.7 billion people. WHO South-East Asia, Western-Pacific, and Africa regions had the highest prevalence and accounted for around 80% of those with LTBI. Prevalence of recent infection was 0.8% (95% UI: 0.7%-0.9% of the global population, amounting to 55.5 (95% UI: 48.2-63.8 million individuals currently at high risk of TB disease, of which 10.9% (95% UI:10.2%-11.8% was isoniazid-resistant. Current LTBI alone, assuming no additional infections from 2015 onwards, would be expected to generate TB incidences in the region of 16.5 per 100,000 per year in 2035 and 8.3 per 100,000 per year in 2050. Limitations included the quantity and methodological heterogeneity of direct ARI

  16. Methodological Framework for World Health Organization Estimates of the Global Burden of Foodborne Disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brecht Devleesschauwer

    Full Text Available The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs. This paper describes the methodological framework developed by FERG's Computational Task Force to transform epidemiological information into FBD burden estimates.The global and regional burden of 31 FBDs was quantified, along with limited estimates for 5 other FBDs, using Disability-Adjusted Life Years in a hazard- and incidence-based approach. To accomplish this task, the following workflow was defined: outline of disease models and collection of epidemiological data; design and completion of a database template; development of an imputation model; identification of disability weights; probabilistic burden assessment; and estimating the proportion of the disease burden by each hazard that is attributable to exposure by food (i.e., source attribution. All computations were performed in R and the different functions were compiled in the R package 'FERG'. Traceability and transparency were ensured by sharing results and methods in an interactive way with all FERG members throughout the process.We developed a comprehensive framework for estimating the global burden of FBDs, in which methodological simplicity and transparency were key elements. All the tools developed have been made available and can be translated into a user-friendly national toolkit for studying and monitoring food safety at the local level.

  17. Estimating Climatological Bias Errors for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Robert; Gu, Guojun; Huffman, George

    2012-01-01

    A procedure is described to estimate bias errors for mean precipitation by using multiple estimates from different algorithms, satellite sources, and merged products. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly product is used as a base precipitation estimate, with other input products included when they are within +/- 50% of the GPCP estimates on a zonal-mean basis (ocean and land separately). The standard deviation s of the included products is then taken to be the estimated systematic, or bias, error. The results allow one to examine monthly climatologies and the annual climatology, producing maps of estimated bias errors, zonal-mean errors, and estimated errors over large areas such as ocean and land for both the tropics and the globe. For ocean areas, where there is the largest question as to absolute magnitude of precipitation, the analysis shows spatial variations in the estimated bias errors, indicating areas where one should have more or less confidence in the mean precipitation estimates. In the tropics, relative bias error estimates (s/m, where m is the mean precipitation) over the eastern Pacific Ocean are as large as 20%, as compared with 10%-15% in the western Pacific part of the ITCZ. An examination of latitudinal differences over ocean clearly shows an increase in estimated bias error at higher latitudes, reaching up to 50%. Over land, the error estimates also locate regions of potential problems in the tropics and larger cold-season errors at high latitudes that are due to snow. An empirical technique to area average the gridded errors (s) is described that allows one to make error estimates for arbitrary areas and for the tropics and the globe (land and ocean separately, and combined). Over the tropics this calculation leads to a relative error estimate for tropical land and ocean combined of 7%, which is considered to be an upper bound because of the lack of sign-of-the-error canceling when integrating over different areas with a

  18. (U) Estimating the Photonics Budget, Resolution, and Signal Requirements for a Multi-Monochromatic X-ray Imager

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tregillis, Ian Lee [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-09-22

    This document examines the performance of a generic flat-mirror multimonochromatic imager (MMI), with special emphasis on existing instruments at NIF and Omega. We begin by deriving the standard equation for the mean number of photons detected per resolution element. The pinhole energy bandwidth is a contributing factor; this is dominated by the finite size of the source and may be considerable. The most common method for estimating the spatial resolution of such a system (quadrature addition) is, technically, mathematically invalid for this case. However, under the proper circumstances it may produce good estimates compared to a rigorous calculation based on the convolution of point-spread functions. Diffraction is an important contribution to the spatial resolution. Common approximations based on Fraunhofer (farfield) diffraction may be inappropriate and misleading, as the instrument may reside in multiple regimes depending upon its configuration or the energy of interest. It is crucial to identify the correct diffraction regime; Fraunhofer and Fresnel (near-field) diffraction profiles are substantially different, the latter being considerably wider. Finally, we combine the photonics and resolution analyses to derive an expression for the minimum signal level such that the resulting images are not dominated by photon statistics. This analysis is consistent with observed performance of the NIF MMI.

  19. Estimation of the Carbon Footprint and Global Warming Potential in Rice Production Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dastan, S.; Soltani, F.; Noormohamadi, G.; Madani, H.; Yadi, R.

    2016-01-01

    Optimal management approaches can be adopted in order to increase crop productivity and lower the carbon footprint of grain products. The objective of this study was to estimate the carbon (C) footprint and global warming potential of rice production systems. In this experiment, rice production systems (including SRI, improved and conventional) were studied. All activities, field operations and data in production methods and at different input rates were monitored and recorded during 2012. Results showed that average global warming potential across production systems was equal to 2803.25 kg CO 2 -eq ha-1. The highest and least global warming potential were observed in the SRI and conventional systems, respectively. global warming potential per unit energy input was the least and most in SRI and conventional systems, respectively. Also, the SRI and conventional systems had the maximum and minimum global warming potential per unit energy output, respectively. SRI and conventional system had the greatest and least global warming potential per unit energy output, respectively. Therefore, the optimal management approach found in SRI resulted in a reduction in GHGs, global warming potential and the carbon footprint.

  20. Our changing planet: the FY 1993 U.S. Global Change Research Program. A report by the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences. A supplement to the U.S. President's Fiscal Year 1993 Budget

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The USGCRP was established as a Presidential initiative in the FY 1990 Budget to help develop sound national and international policies related to global environmental issues, particularly global climate change. The USGCRP is implemented through a priority-driven scientific research agenda that is designed to be integrated, comprehensive, and multidisciplinary. It is designed explicitly to address scientific uncertainties in such areas as climate change, ozone depletion, changes in terrestrial and marine productivity, global water and energy cycles, sea level changes, the impact of global changes on human health and activities, and the impact of anthropogenic activities on the Earth system. The USGCRP addresses three parallel but interconnected streams of activity: documenting global change (observations); enhancing understanding of key processes (process research); and predicting global and regional environmental change (integrated modeling and prediction)

  1. Testing a statistical method of global mean palotemperature estimations in a long climate simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zorita, E.; Gonzalez-Rouco, F. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

    2001-07-01

    Current statistical methods of reconstructing the climate of the last centuries are based on statistical models linking climate observations (temperature, sea-level-pressure) and proxy-climate data (tree-ring chronologies, ice-cores isotope concentrations, varved sediments, etc.). These models are calibrated in the instrumental period, and the longer time series of proxy data are then used to estimate the past evolution of the climate variables. Using such methods the global mean temperature of the last 600 years has been recently estimated. In this work this method of reconstruction is tested using data from a very long simulation with a climate model. This testing allows to estimate the errors of the estimations as a function of the number of proxy data and the time scale at which the estimations are probably reliable. (orig.)

  2. Estimating the Global Agricultural Impact of Solar Radiation Management using Volcanic Eruptions as Natural Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proctor, J.; Hsiang, S. M.; Burney, J. A.; Burke, M.; Schlenker, W.

    2017-12-01

    Solar radiation management (SRM) is increasingly considered an option for managing global temperatures, yet the economic impacts of ameliorating climatic changes by scattering sunlight back to space remain largely unknown. Though SRM may increase crop yields by reducing heat stress, its impacts from concomitant changes in available sunlight have never been empirically estimated. Here we use the volcanic eruptions that inspired modern SRM proposals as natural experiments to provide the first estimates of how the stratospheric sulfate aerosols (SS) created by the eruptions of El Chichon and Pinatubo altered the quantity and quality of global sunlight, how those changes in sunlight impacted global crop yields, and the total effect that SS may have on yields in an SRM scenario when the climatic and sunlight effects are jointly considered. We find that the sunlight-mediated impact of SS on yields is negative for both C4 (maize) and C3 (soy, rice, wheat) crops. Applying our yield model to a geoengineering scenario using SS-based SRM from 2050-2069, we find that SRM damages due to scattering sunlight are roughly equal in magnitude to SRM benefits from cooling. This suggests that SRM - if deployed using SS similar to those emitted by the volcanic eruptions it seeks to mimic - would attenuate little of the damages from climate change to global agriculture on net. Our approach could be extended to study SRM impacts on other global systems, such as human health or ecosystem function.

  3. A hybrid computational approach to estimate solar global radiation: An empirical evidence from Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mostafavi, Elham Sadat; Ramiyani, Sara Saeidi; Sarvar, Rahim; Moud, Hashem Izadi; Mousavi, Seyyed Mohammad

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents an innovative hybrid approach for the estimation of the solar global radiation. New prediction equations were developed for the global radiation using an integrated search method of genetic programming (GP) and simulated annealing (SA), called GP/SA. The solar radiation was formulated in terms of several climatological and meteorological parameters. Comprehensive databases containing monthly data collected for 6 years in two cities of Iran were used to develop GP/SA-based models. Separate models were established for each city. The generalization of the models was verified using a separate testing database. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to investigate the contribution of the parameters affecting the solar radiation. The derived models make accurate predictions of the solar global radiation and notably outperform the existing models. -- Highlights: ► A hybrid approach is presented for the estimation of the solar global radiation. ► The proposed method integrates the capabilities of GP and SA. ► Several climatological and meteorological parameters are included in the analysis. ► The GP/SA models make accurate predictions of the solar global radiation.

  4. Incorrectly Interpreting the Carbon Mass Balance Technique Leads to Biased Emissions Estimates from Global Vegetation Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surawski, N. C.; Sullivan, A. L.; Roxburgh, S. H.; Meyer, M.; Polglase, P. J.

    2016-12-01

    Vegetation fires are a complex phenomenon and have a range of global impacts including influences on climate. Even though fire is a necessary disturbance for the maintenance of some ecosystems, a range of anthropogenically deleterious consequences are associated with it, such as damage to assets and infrastructure, loss of life, as well as degradation to air quality leading to negative impacts on human health. Estimating carbon emissions from fire relies on a carbon mass balance technique which has evolved with two different interpretations in the fire emissions community. Databases reporting global fire emissions estimates use an approach based on `consumed biomass' which is an approximation to the biogeochemically correct `burnt carbon' approach. Disagreement between the two methods occurs because the `consumed biomass' accounting technique assumes that all burnt carbon is volatilized and emitted. By undertaking a global review of the fraction of burnt carbon emitted to the atmosphere, we show that the `consumed biomass' accounting approach overestimates global carbon emissions by 4.0%, or 100 Teragrams, annually. The required correction is significant and represents 9% of the net global forest carbon sink estimated annually. To correctly partition burnt carbon between that emitted to the atmosphere and that remaining as a post-fire residue requires the post-burn carbon content to be estimated, which is quite often not undertaken in atmospheric emissions studies. To broaden our understanding of ecosystem carbon fluxes, it is recommended that the change in carbon content associated with burnt residues be accounted for. Apart from correctly partitioning burnt carbon between the emitted and residue pools, it enables an accounting approach which can assess the efficacy of fire management operations targeted at sequestering carbon from fire. These findings are particularly relevant for the second commitment period for the Kyoto protocol, since improved landscape fire

  5. First volcanic CO2 budget estimate for three actively degassing volcanoes in the Central American Volcanic Arc

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robidoux, Philippe; Aiuppa, Alessandro; Conde, Vladimir; Galle, Bo; Giudice, Gaetano; Avard, Geoffroy; Muñoz, Angélica

    2014-05-01

    CO2 is a key chemical tracer for exploring volcanic degassing mechanisms of basaltic magmatic systems (1). The rate of CO2 release from sub-aerial volcanism is monitored via studies on volcanic plumes and fumaroles, but information is still sparse and incomplete for many regions of the globe, including the majority of the volcanoes in the Central American Volcanic Arc (2). Here, we use a combination of remote sensing techniques and in-situ measurements of volcanic gas plumes to provide a first estimate of the CO2 output from three degassing volcanoes in Central America: Turrialba, in Costa Rica, and Telica and San Cristobal, in Nicaragua. During a field campaign in March-April 2013, we obtained (for the three volcanoes) a simultaneous record of SO2 fluxes (from the NOVAC network (3)) and CO2 vs. SO2 concentrations in the near-vent plumes (obtained via a temporary installed fully-automated Multi-GAS instrument (4)). The Multi-GAS time-series allowed to calculate the plume CO2/SO2 ratios for different intervals of time, showing relatively stable gas compositions. Distinct CO2 - SO2 - H2O proportions were observed at the three volcanoes, but still within the range of volcanic arc gas (5). The CO2/SO2 ratios were then multiplied by the SO2 flux in order to derive the CO2 output. At Turrialba, CO2/SO2 ratios fluctuated, between March 12 and 19, between 1.1 and 5.7, and the CO2flux was evaluated at ~1000-1350 t/d (6). At Telica, between March 23 and April 8, a somewhat higher CO2/SO2 ratio was observed (3.3 ± 1.0), although the CO2 flux was evaluated at only ~100-500 t/d (6). At San Cristobal, where observations were taken between April 11 and 15, the CO2/SO2 ratio ranged between 1.8 and 7.4, with a mean CO2 flux of 753 t/d. These measurements contribute refining the current estimates of the total CO2 output from the Central American Volcanic Arc (7). Symonds, R.B. et al., (2001). J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 108, 303-341 Burton, M. R. et al. (2013). Reviews in

  6. Random balance designs for the estimation of first order global sensitivity indices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarantola, S.; Gatelli, D.; Mara, T.A.

    2006-01-01

    We present two methods for the estimation of main effects in global sensitivity analysis. The methods adopt Satterthwaite's application of random balance designs in regression problems, and extend it to sensitivity analysis of model output for non-linear, non-additive models. Finite as well as infinite ranges for model input factors are allowed. The methods are easier to implement than any other method available for global sensitivity analysis, and reduce significantly the computational cost of the analysis. We test their performance on different test cases, including an international benchmark on safety assessment for nuclear waste disposal originally carried out by OECD/NEA

  7. Random balance designs for the estimation of first order global sensitivity indices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tarantola, S. [Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Institute of the Protection and Security of the Citizen, TP 361, Via E. Fermi 1, 21020 Ispra (Vatican City State, Holy See,) (Italy)]. E-mail: stefano.tarantola@jrc.it; Gatelli, D. [Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Institute of the Protection and Security of the Citizen, TP 361, Via E. Fermi 1, 21020 Ispra (VA) (Italy); Mara, T.A. [Laboratory of Industrial engineering, University of Reunion Island, BP 7151, 15 avenue Rene Cassin, 97 715 Saint-Denis (France)

    2006-06-15

    We present two methods for the estimation of main effects in global sensitivity analysis. The methods adopt Satterthwaite's application of random balance designs in regression problems, and extend it to sensitivity analysis of model output for non-linear, non-additive models. Finite as well as infinite ranges for model input factors are allowed. The methods are easier to implement than any other method available for global sensitivity analysis, and reduce significantly the computational cost of the analysis. We test their performance on different test cases, including an international benchmark on safety assessment for nuclear waste disposal originally carried out by OECD/NEA.

  8. Estimating a Global Hydrological Carrying Capacity Using GRACE Observed Water Stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, K.; Reager, J. T.; Famiglietti, J. S.

    2013-12-01

    Global population is expected to reach 9 billion people by the year 2050, causing increased demands for water and potential threats to human security. This study attempts to frame the overpopulation problem through a hydrological resources lens by hypothesizing that observed groundwater trends should be directly attributed to human water consumption. This study analyzes the relationships between available blue water, population, and cropland area on a global scale. Using satellite data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) along with land surface model data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), a global groundwater depletion trend is isolated, the validity of which has been verified in many regional studies. By using the inherent distributions of these relationships, we estimate the regional populations that have exceeded their local hydrological carrying capacity. Globally, these populations sum to ~3.5 billion people that are living in presently water-stressed or potentially water-scarce regions, and we estimate total cropland is exceeding a sustainable threshold by about 80 million km^2. Key study areas such as the North China Plain, northwest India, and Mexico City were qualitatively chosen for further analysis of regional water resources and policies, based on our distributions of water stress. These case studies are used to verify the groundwater level changes seen in the GRACE trend . Tfor the many populous, arid regions of the world that have already begun to experience the strains of high water demand.he many populous, arid regions of the world have already begun to experience the strains of high water demand. It will take a global cooperative effort of improving domestic and agricultural use efficiency, and summoning a political will to prioritize environmental issues to adapt to a thirstier planet. Global Groundwater Depletion Trend (Mar 2003-Dec 2011)

  9. Estimating global "blue carbon" emissions from conversion and degradation of vegetated coastal ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linwood Pendleton

    Full Text Available Recent attention has focused on the high rates of annual carbon sequestration in vegetated coastal ecosystems--marshes, mangroves, and seagrasses--that may be lost with habitat destruction ('conversion'. Relatively unappreciated, however, is that conversion of these coastal ecosystems also impacts very large pools of previously-sequestered carbon. Residing mostly in sediments, this 'blue carbon' can be released to the atmosphere when these ecosystems are converted or degraded. Here we provide the first global estimates of this impact and evaluate its economic implications. Combining the best available data on global area, land-use conversion rates, and near-surface carbon stocks in each of the three ecosystems, using an uncertainty-propagation approach, we estimate that 0.15-1.02 Pg (billion tons of carbon dioxide are being released annually, several times higher than previous estimates that account only for lost sequestration. These emissions are equivalent to 3-19% of those from deforestation globally, and result in economic damages of $US 6-42 billion annually. The largest sources of uncertainty in these estimates stems from limited certitude in global area and rates of land-use conversion, but research is also needed on the fates of ecosystem carbon upon conversion. Currently, carbon emissions from the conversion of vegetated coastal ecosystems are not included in emissions accounting or carbon market protocols, but this analysis suggests they may be disproportionally important to both. Although the relevant science supporting these initial estimates will need to be refined in coming years, it is clear that policies encouraging the sustainable management of coastal ecosystems could significantly reduce carbon emissions from the land-use sector, in addition to sustaining the well-recognized ecosystem services of coastal habitats.

  10. Estimating Global “Blue Carbon” Emissions from Conversion and Degradation of Vegetated Coastal Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Brian C.; Crooks, Stephen; Jenkins, W. Aaron; Sifleet, Samantha; Craft, Christopher; Fourqurean, James W.; Kauffman, J. Boone; Marbà, Núria; Megonigal, Patrick; Pidgeon, Emily; Herr, Dorothee; Gordon, David; Baldera, Alexis

    2012-01-01

    Recent attention has focused on the high rates of annual carbon sequestration in vegetated coastal ecosystems—marshes, mangroves, and seagrasses—that may be lost with habitat destruction (‘conversion’). Relatively unappreciated, however, is that conversion of these coastal ecosystems also impacts very large pools of previously-sequestered carbon. Residing mostly in sediments, this ‘blue carbon’ can be released to the atmosphere when these ecosystems are converted or degraded. Here we provide the first global estimates of this impact and evaluate its economic implications. Combining the best available data on global area, land-use conversion rates, and near-surface carbon stocks in each of the three ecosystems, using an uncertainty-propagation approach, we estimate that 0.15–1.02 Pg (billion tons) of carbon dioxide are being released annually, several times higher than previous estimates that account only for lost sequestration. These emissions are equivalent to 3–19% of those from deforestation globally, and result in economic damages of $US 6–42 billion annually. The largest sources of uncertainty in these estimates stems from limited certitude in global area and rates of land-use conversion, but research is also needed on the fates of ecosystem carbon upon conversion. Currently, carbon emissions from the conversion of vegetated coastal ecosystems are not included in emissions accounting or carbon market protocols, but this analysis suggests they may be disproportionally important to both. Although the relevant science supporting these initial estimates will need to be refined in coming years, it is clear that policies encouraging the sustainable management of coastal ecosystems could significantly reduce carbon emissions from the land-use sector, in addition to sustaining the well-recognized ecosystem services of coastal habitats. PMID:22962585

  11. Contributions of national and global health estimates to monitoring health-related sustainable development goals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bundhamcharoen, Kanitta; Limwattananon, Supon; Kusreesakul, Khanitta; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj

    2016-01-01

    The millennium development goals triggered an increased demand for data on child and maternal mortalities for monitoring progress. With the advent of the sustainable development goals and growing evidence of an epidemiological transition toward non-communicable diseases, policymakers need data on mortality and disease trends and distribution to inform effective policies and support monitoring progress. Where there are limited capacities to produce national health estimates (NHEs), global health estimates (GHEs) can fill gaps for global monitoring and comparisons. This paper discusses lessons learned from Thailand's burden of disease (BOD) study on capacity development on NHEs and discusses the contributions and limitations of GHEs in informing policies at the country level. Through training and technical support by external partners, capacities are gradually strengthened and institutionalized to enable regular updates of BOD at national and subnational levels. Initially, the quality of cause-of-death reporting in death certificates was inadequate, especially for deaths occurring in the community. Verbal autopsies were conducted, using domestic resources, to determine probable causes of deaths occurring in the community. This method helped to improve the estimation of years of life lost. Since the achievement of universal health coverage in 2002, the quality of clinical data on morbidities has also considerably improved. There are significant discrepancies between the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study estimates for Thailand and the 1999 nationally generated BOD, especially for years of life lost due to HIV/AIDS, and the ranking of priority diseases. National ownership of NHEs and an effective interface between researchers and decision-makers contribute to enhanced country policy responses, whereas subnational data are intended to be used by various subnational partners. Although GHEs contribute to benchmarking country achievement compared with global health

  12. Global estimate of lichen and bryophyte contributions to forest precipitation interception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Stan, John; Porada, Philipp; Kleidon, Axel

    2017-04-01

    Interception of precipitation by forest canopies plays an important role in its partitioning to evaporation, transpiration and runoff. Field observations show arboreal lichens and bryophytes can substantially enhance forests' precipitation storage and evaporation. However, representations of canopy interception in global land surface models currently ignore arboreal lichen and bryophyte contributions. This study uses the lichen and bryophyte model (LiBry) to provide the first process-based modelling approach estimating these organisms' contributions to canopy water storage and evaporation. The global mean value of forest water storage capacity increased significantly from 0.87 mm to 1.33 mm by the inclusion of arboreal poikilohydric organisms. Global forest canopy evaporation of intercepted precipitation was also greatly enhanced by 44%. Ratio of total versus bare canopy global evaporation exceeded 2 in many forested regions. This altered global patterns in canopy water storage, evaporation, and ultimately the proportion of rainfall evaporated. A sensitivity analysis was also performed. Results indicate rainfall interception is of larger magnitude than previously reported by global land surface modelling work because of the important role of lichen and bryophytes in rainfall interception.

  13. 7 CFR 956.41 - Budget.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 8 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Budget. 956.41 Section 956.41 Agriculture Regulations... OF SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON Expenses and Assessments § 956.41 Budget. Prior to each fiscal period and as may be necessary thereafter, the committee shall prepare an estimated budget of...

  14. 7 CFR 958.41 - Budget.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 8 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Budget. 958.41 Section 958.41 Agriculture Regulations... Budget. Prior to each fiscal period, and as may be necessary thereafter the committee shall prepare a budget of estimated income and expenditures necessary for the administration of this part. The committee...

  15. 7 CFR 966.41 - Budget.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 8 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Budget. 966.41 Section 966.41 Agriculture Regulations... Handling Expenses and Assessments § 966.41 Budget. At the beginning of each fiscal period and as may be necessary thereafter, the committee shall prepare an estimated budget of income and expenditures necessary...

  16. 7 CFR 959.41 - Budget.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 8 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Budget. 959.41 Section 959.41 Agriculture Regulations... Handling Expenses and Assessments § 959.41 Budget. As soon as practicable after the beginning of each fiscal period and as may be necessary thereafter, the committee shall prepare an estimated budget of...

  17. Approaches to Refining Estimates of Global Burden and Economics of Dengue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepard, Donald S.; Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Betancourt-Cravioto, Miguel; Guzmán, María G.; Halstead, Scott B.; Harris, Eva; Mudin, Rose Nani; Murray, Kristy O.; Tapia-Conyer, Roberto; Gubler, Duane J.

    2014-01-01

    Dengue presents a formidable and growing global economic and disease burden, with around half the world's population estimated to be at risk of infection. There is wide variation and substantial uncertainty in current estimates of dengue disease burden and, consequently, on economic burden estimates. Dengue disease varies across time, geography and persons affected. Variations in the transmission of four different viruses and interactions among vector density and host's immune status, age, pre-existing medical conditions, all contribute to the disease's complexity. This systematic review aims to identify and examine estimates of dengue disease burden and costs, discuss major sources of uncertainty, and suggest next steps to improve estimates. Economic analysis of dengue is mainly concerned with costs of illness, particularly in estimating total episodes of symptomatic dengue. However, national dengue disease reporting systems show a great diversity in design and implementation, hindering accurate global estimates of dengue episodes and country comparisons. A combination of immediate, short-, and long-term strategies could substantially improve estimates of disease and, consequently, of economic burden of dengue. Suggestions for immediate implementation include refining analysis of currently available data to adjust reported episodes and expanding data collection in empirical studies, such as documenting the number of ambulatory visits before and after hospitalization and including breakdowns by age. Short-term recommendations include merging multiple data sources, such as cohort and surveillance data to evaluate the accuracy of reporting rates (by health sector, treatment, severity, etc.), and using covariates to extrapolate dengue incidence to locations with no or limited reporting. Long-term efforts aim at strengthening capacity to document dengue transmission using serological methods to systematically analyze and relate to epidemiologic data. As promising tools

  18. Assembling GHERG: Could "academic crowd-sourcing" address gaps in global health estimates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudan, Igor; Campbell, Harry; Marušić, Ana; Sridhar, Devi; Nair, Harish; Adeloye, Davies; Theodoratou, Evropi; Chan, Kit Yee

    2015-06-01

    In recent months, the World Health Organization (WHO), independent academic researchers, the Lancet and PLoS Medicine journals worked together to improve reporting of population health estimates. The new guidelines for accurate and transparent health estimates reporting (likely to be named GATHER), which are eagerly awaited, represent a helpful move that should benefit the field of global health metrics. Building on this progress and drawing from a tradition of Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG)'s successful work model, we would like to propose a new initiative - "Global Health Epidemiology Reference Group" (GHERG). We see GHERG as an informal and entirely voluntary international collaboration of academic groups who are willing to contribute to improving disease burden estimates and respect the principles of the new guidelines - a form of "academic crowd-sourcing". The main focus of GHERG will be to identify the "gap areas" where not much information is available and/or where there is a lot of uncertainty present about the accuracy of the existing estimates. This approach should serve to complement the existing WHO and IHME estimates and to represent added value to both efforts.

  19. Estimating the approximation error when fixing unessential factors in global sensitivity analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sobol' , I.M. [Institute for Mathematical Modelling of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation); Tarantola, S. [Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, TP361, Institute of the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Via E. Fermi 1, 21020 Ispra (Italy)]. E-mail: stefano.tarantola@jrc.it; Gatelli, D. [Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, TP361, Institute of the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Via E. Fermi 1, 21020 Ispra (Italy)]. E-mail: debora.gatelli@jrc.it; Kucherenko, S.S. [Imperial College London (United Kingdom); Mauntz, W. [Department of Biochemical and Chemical Engineering, Dortmund University (Germany)

    2007-07-15

    One of the major settings of global sensitivity analysis is that of fixing non-influential factors, in order to reduce the dimensionality of a model. However, this is often done without knowing the magnitude of the approximation error being produced. This paper presents a new theorem for the estimation of the average approximation error generated when fixing a group of non-influential factors. A simple function where analytical solutions are available is used to illustrate the theorem. The numerical estimation of small sensitivity indices is discussed.

  20. Quantifying the Effects of Historical Land Cover Conversion Uncertainty on Global Carbon and Climate Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Vittorio, A. V.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Chini, L.; Hurtt, G.; Collins, W. D.

    2018-01-01

    Previous studies have examined land use change as a driver of global change, but the translation of land use change into land cover conversion has been largely unconstrained. Here we quantify the effects of land cover conversion uncertainty on the global carbon and climate system using the integrated Earth System Model. Our experiments use identical land use change data and vary land cover conversions to quantify associated uncertainty in carbon and climate estimates. Land cover conversion uncertainty is large, constitutes a 5 ppmv range in estimated atmospheric CO2 in 2004, and generates carbon uncertainty that is equivalent to 80% of the net effects of CO2 and climate and 124% of the effects of nitrogen deposition during 1850-2004. Additionally, land cover uncertainty generates differences in local surface temperature of over 1°C. We conclude that future studies addressing land use, carbon, and climate need to constrain and reduce land cover conversion uncertainties.

  1. Estimating Global Impervious Surface based on Social-economic Data and Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Z.; Zhang, K.; Xue, X.; Hong, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Impervious surface areas around the globe are expanding and significantly altering the surface energy balance, hydrology cycle and ecosystem services. Many studies have underlined the importance of impervious surface, r from hydrological modeling to contaminant transport monitoring and urban development estimation. Therefore accurate estimation of the global impervious surface is important for both physical and social sciences. Given the limited coverage of high spatial resolution imagery and ground survey, using satellite remote sensing and geospatial data to estimate global impervious areas is a practical approach. Based on the previous work of area-weighted imperviousness for north branch of the Chicago River provided by HDR, this study developed a method to determine the percentage of impervious surface using latest global land cover categories from multi-source satellite observations, population density and gross domestic product (GDP) data. Percent impervious surface at 30-meter resolution were mapped. We found that 1.33% of the CONUS (105,814 km2) and 0.475% of the land surface (640,370km2) are impervious surfaces. To test the utility and practicality of the proposed method, National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2011 percent developed imperviousness for the conterminous United States was used to evaluate our results. The average difference between the derived imperviousness from our method and the NLCD data across CONUS is 1.14%, while difference between our results and the NLCD data are within ±1% over 81.63% of the CONUS. The distribution of global impervious surface map indicates that impervious surfaces are primarily concentrated in China, India, Japan, USA and Europe where are highly populated and/or developed. This study proposes a straightforward way of mapping global imperviousness, which can provide useful information for hydrologic modeling and other applications.

  2. Estimating the global conservation status of more than 15,000 Amazonian tree species

    OpenAIRE

    ter Steege, H.; et al., [Unknown; Duivenvoorden, J.F.

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of extinction risk for Amazonian plant and animal species are rare and not often incorporated into land-use policy and conservation planning. We overlay spatial distribution models with historical and projected deforestation to show that at least 36% and up to 57% of all Amazonian tree species are likely to qualify as globally threatened under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria. If confirmed, these results would increase the number of threatened ...

  3. An Improved Global Wind Resource Estimate for Integrated Assessment Models: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hettinger, Dylan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Heimiller, Donna [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-02-01

    This paper summarizes initial steps to improving the robustness and accuracy of global renewable resource and techno-economic assessments for use in integrated assessment models. We outline a method to construct country-level wind resource supply curves, delineated by resource quality and other parameters. Using mesoscale reanalysis data, we generate estimates for wind quality, both terrestrial and offshore, across the globe. Because not all land or water area is suitable for development, appropriate database layers provide exclusions to reduce the total resource to its technical potential. We expand upon estimates from related studies by: using a globally consistent data source of uniquely detailed wind speed characterizations; assuming a non-constant coefficient of performance for adjusting power curves for altitude; categorizing the distance from resource sites to the electric power grid; and characterizing offshore exclusions on the basis of sea ice concentrations. The product, then, is technical potential by country, classified by resource quality as determined by net capacity factor. Additional classifications dimensions are available, including distance to transmission networks for terrestrial wind and distance to shore and water depth for offshore. We estimate the total global wind generation potential of 560 PWh for terrestrial wind with 90% of resource classified as low-to-mid quality, and 315 PWh for offshore wind with 67% classified as mid-to-high quality. These estimates are based on 3.5 MW composite wind turbines with 90 m hub heights, 0.95 availability, 90% array efficiency, and 5 MW/km2 deployment density in non-excluded areas. We compare the underlying technical assumption and results with other global assessments.

  4. Global CO2 fluxes estimated from GOSAT retrievals of total column CO2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Basu

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available We present one of the first estimates of the global distribution of CO2 surface fluxes using total column CO2 measurements retrieved by the SRON-KIT RemoTeC algorithm from the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT. We derive optimized fluxes from June 2009 to December 2010. We estimate fluxes from surface CO2 measurements to use as baselines for comparing GOSAT data-derived fluxes. Assimilating only GOSAT data, we can reproduce the observed CO2 time series at surface and TCCON sites in the tropics and the northern extra-tropics. In contrast, in the southern extra-tropics GOSAT XCO2 leads to enhanced seasonal cycle amplitudes compared to independent measurements, and we identify it as the result of a land–sea bias in our GOSAT XCO2 retrievals. A bias correction in the form of a global offset between GOSAT land and sea pixels in a joint inversion of satellite and surface measurements of CO2 yields plausible global flux estimates which are more tightly constrained than in an inversion using surface CO2 data alone. We show that assimilating the bias-corrected GOSAT data on top of surface CO2 data (a reduces the estimated global land sink of CO2, and (b shifts the terrestrial net uptake of carbon from the tropics to the extra-tropics. It is concluded that while GOSAT total column CO2 provide useful constraints for source–sink inversions, small spatiotemporal biases – beyond what can be detected using current validation techniques – have serious consequences for optimized fluxes, even aggregated over continental scales.

  5. Estimation of the Global Solar Energy Potential and Photovoltaic Cost with the use of Open Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athina Korfiati

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available There is an increasing demand for renewable electricity sources, due to the global efforts to reduce CO2 emissions. Despite the promising effects, only a limited amount of electricity is currently produced globally from solar power. In order to help countries realize the importance of tapping into solar energy, it is crucial to reveal the potential amount of electricity that could be thus produced. For this reason, open data were used to produce an interactive web map of the global solar energy potential. For the calculation of the potential, the top-down approach, generally used in the literature, was modified by introducing a better way of calculating rooftop areas, and accounting for temperature, which highly reduces PV panels’ efficiency. Mean annual temperature data were introduced to improve its accuracy, and an approach to estimate rooftop and façade areas as a function of GDP was developed. The current global solar potential technically available was estimated at about 613 PWh/y. Furthermore, the cost of photovoltaic generation was computed and extremely low values, 0.03 - 0.2 $/kWh, were derived.

  6. Estimating the potential intensification of global grazing systems based on climate adjusted yield gap analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheehan, J. J.

    2016-12-01

    We report here a first-of-its-kind analysis of the potential for intensification of global grazing systems. Intensification is calculated using the statistical yield gap methodology developed previously by others (Mueller et al 2012 and Licker et al 2010) for global crop systems. Yield gaps are estimated by binning global pasture land area into 100 equal area sized bins of similar climate (defined by ranges of rainfall and growing degree days). Within each bin, grid cells of pastureland are ranked from lowest to highest productivity. The global intensification potential is defined as the sum of global production across all bins at a given percentile ranking (e.g. performance at the 90th percentile) divided by the total current global production. The previous yield gap studies focused on crop systems because productivity data on these systems is readily available. Nevertheless, global crop land represents only one-third of total global agricultural land, while pasture systems account for the remaining two-thirds. Thus, it is critical to conduct the same kind of analysis on what is the largest human use of land on the planet—pasture systems. In 2013, Herrero et al announced the completion of a geospatial data set that augmented the animal census data with data and modeling about production systems and overall food productivity (Herrero et al, PNAS 2013). With this data set, it is now possible to apply yield gap analysis to global pasture systems. We used the Herrero et al data set to evaluate yield gaps for meat and milk production from pasture based systems for cattle, sheep and goats. The figure included with this abstract shows the intensification potential for kcal per hectare per year of meat and milk from global cattle, sheep and goats as a function of increasing levels of performance. Performance is measured as the productivity achieved at a given ranked percentile within each bin.We find that if all pasture land were raised to their 90th percentile of

  7. A method for daily global solar radiation estimation from two instantaneous values using MODIS atmospheric products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Xiaojun; Du, Huaqiang; Zhou, Guomo; Mao, Fangjie; Li, Pingheng; Fan, Weiliang; Zhu, Dien

    2016-01-01

    Accurate information on the temporal and spatial distributions of solar radiation is very important in many scientific fields. In this study, instantaneous solar irradiances on a horizontal surface at 10:30 and 13:30 local time (LT) were calculated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) atmospheric data products with relatively high spatial resolution using a solar radiation model. These solar irradiances were combined to derive half-hourly averages of solar irradiance (HASI) and daily global solar radiation (GSR) on a horizontal surface using linear interpolation, piecewise linear regression, and quadratic polynomial regression. Compared with field observations, the HASI were estimated accurately when the total cloud fraction (TCF) was 0.6. Overall, the daily GSR estimated in this study was better than that estimated by the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis of NASA. The daily GSR estimated in this study was underestimated, whereas it was overestimated by MERRA. The combination of the daily GSR estimates of this study and MERRA offers a simple and feasible technique for reducing uncertainty in daily GSR estimates. - Highlights: • Daily GSR is integrated from two observations from the MODIS products. • Daily GSR from the MODIS products is underestimated. • Biases were attributed primarily to variations in the total cloud percent. • Combining daily GSR estimates from the MODIS and the MERRA increases accuracy.

  8. Global optimization for motion estimation with applications to ultrasound videos of carotid artery plaques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murillo, Sergio; Pattichis, Marios; Soliz, Peter; Barriga, Simon; Loizou, C. P.; Pattichis, C. S.

    2010-03-01

    Motion estimation from digital video is an ill-posed problem that requires a regularization approach. Regularization introduces a smoothness constraint that can reduce the resolution of the velocity estimates. The problem is further complicated for ultrasound videos (US), where speckle noise levels can be significant. Motion estimation using optical flow models requires the modification of several parameters to satisfy the optical flow constraint as well as the level of imposed smoothness. Furthermore, except in simulations or mostly unrealistic cases, there is no ground truth to use for validating the velocity estimates. This problem is present in all real video sequences that are used as input to motion estimation algorithms. It is also an open problem in biomedical applications like motion analysis of US of carotid artery (CA) plaques. In this paper, we study the problem of obtaining reliable ultrasound video motion estimates for atherosclerotic plaques for use in clinical diagnosis. A global optimization framework for motion parameter optimization is presented. This framework uses actual carotid artery motions to provide optimal parameter values for a variety of motions and is tested on ten different US videos using two different motion estimation techniques.

  9. Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Locatelli

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model inter-comparison exercise, are combined with a prior scenario of methane emissions and sinks, and integrated into the three-component PYVAR-LMDZ-SACS (PYthon VARiational-Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique model with Zooming capability-Simplified Atmospheric Chemistry System inversion system to produce 10 different methane emission estimates at the global scale for the year 2005. The same methane sinks, emissions and initial conditions have been applied to produce the 10 synthetic observation datasets. The same inversion set-up (statistical errors, prior emissions, inverse procedure is then applied to derive flux estimates by inverse modelling. Consequently, only differences in the modelling of atmospheric transport may cause differences in the estimated fluxes. In our framework, we show that transport model errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 Tg yr−1 at the global scale, representing 5% of total methane emissions. At continental and annual scales, transport model errors are proportionally larger than at the global scale, with errors ranging from 36 Tg yr−1 in North America to 7 Tg yr−1 in Boreal Eurasia (from 23 to 48%, respectively. At the model grid-scale, the spread of inverse estimates can reach 150% of the prior flux. Therefore, transport model errors contribute significantly to overall uncertainties in emission estimates by inverse modelling, especially when small spatial scales are examined. Sensitivity tests have been carried out to estimate the impact of the measurement network and the advantage of higher horizontal resolution in transport models. The large differences found between methane flux estimates inferred in these different configurations highly

  10. Preindustrial nitrous oxide emissions from the land biosphere estimated by using a global biogeochemistry model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Rongting; Tian, Hanqin; Lu, Chaoqun; Pan, Shufen; Chen, Jian; Yang, Jia; Zhang, Bowen

    2017-07-01

    To accurately assess how increased global nitrous oxide (N2O) emission has affected the climate system requires a robust estimation of the preindustrial N2O emissions since only the difference between current and preindustrial emissions represents net drivers of anthropogenic climate change. However, large uncertainty exists in previous estimates of preindustrial N2O emissions from the land biosphere, while preindustrial N2O emissions on the finer scales, such as regional, biome, or sector scales, have not been well quantified yet. In this study, we applied a process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) to estimate the magnitude and spatial patterns of preindustrial N2O fluxes at the biome, continental, and global level as driven by multiple environmental factors. Uncertainties associated with key parameters were also evaluated. Our study indicates that the mean of the preindustrial N2O emission was approximately 6.20 Tg N yr-1, with an uncertainty range of 4.76 to 8.13 Tg N yr-1. The estimated N2O emission varied significantly at spatial and biome levels. South America, Africa, and Southern Asia accounted for 34.12, 23.85, and 18.93 %, respectively, together contributing 76.90 % of global total emission. The tropics were identified as the major source of N2O released into the atmosphere, accounting for 64.66 % of the total emission. Our multi-scale estimates provide a robust reference for assessing the climate forcing of anthropogenic N2O emission from the land biosphere

  11. Preindustrial nitrous oxide emissions from the land biosphere estimated by using a global biogeochemistry model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Xu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available To accurately assess how increased global nitrous oxide (N2O emission has affected the climate system requires a robust estimation of the preindustrial N2O emissions since only the difference between current and preindustrial emissions represents net drivers of anthropogenic climate change. However, large uncertainty exists in previous estimates of preindustrial N2O emissions from the land biosphere, while preindustrial N2O emissions on the finer scales, such as regional, biome, or sector scales, have not been well quantified yet. In this study, we applied a process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM to estimate the magnitude and spatial patterns of preindustrial N2O fluxes at the biome, continental, and global level as driven by multiple environmental factors. Uncertainties associated with key parameters were also evaluated. Our study indicates that the mean of the preindustrial N2O emission was approximately 6.20 Tg N yr−1, with an uncertainty range of 4.76 to 8.13 Tg N yr−1. The estimated N2O emission varied significantly at spatial and biome levels. South America, Africa, and Southern Asia accounted for 34.12, 23.85, and 18.93 %, respectively, together contributing 76.90 % of global total emission. The tropics were identified as the major source of N2O released into the atmosphere, accounting for 64.66 % of the total emission. Our multi-scale estimates provide a robust reference for assessing the climate forcing of anthropogenic N2O emission from the land biosphere

  12. BUDGET PLANNING IN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataliya Melnichuk

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to determine the nature, targets, functions, principles and methods of budget planning and development of classifications due to its types. The essence of budget planning presented by various authors, is own interpretation (the process of developing a plan of formation, distribution and redistribution of financial funds according to budget system units during the reporting period based on budgetary purposes and targets defined by socio-economic development strategy is proposed. Methodology. The following methods such as cognition, induction, deduction, analysis and synthesis have been used in the process of survey. Results of the survey proves that budget planning plays an essential role in the financial management. On condition business environment changing even the best management system can become obsolete. The immediate reaction to the new trends in the financial system as a whole, in the industry is possible with budget planning as well. It also allows to make appropriate adjustments to the plans. Adjustment of long-term, medium-term and short-term plans makes it possible, without changing goals, to change ways of their achievement and thus to raise the level of efficiency of budget funds formation and use. It is necessary to revise the whole system plans, including their mission and goals in the case of global changes in the external and internal environment. Practical implications. The proposed approach to the classification of budget planning types allows to cope with the shortcomings of modern planning in the public sector (the development of the targets according to the state budget expenditures in Ukraine remains a formality and it rarely complies with realities. Value/originality is specified in the proposed interpretation which differs from existing ones that provides clarification of budget planning purpose in financial management; classification of budget planning principles, which differs from previous

  13. Radiative transfer model for estimation of global solar radiation; Modelo de transferencia radiativa para la estimacion de la radiacion solar global

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pettazzi, A.; Sabon, C. S.; Souto, G. J. A.

    2004-07-01

    In this work, the efficiency of a radiative transfer model in estimating the annual solar global radiation has been evaluated, over different locations at Galicia, Spain, in clear sky periods. Due to its quantitative significance, special attention has been focused on the analysis of the influence of visibility over the global radiation. By comparison of both estimated and measured global solar radiation along year 2002, a typical annual visibility series was obtained over every location. These visibility values has been analysed in order to identify patterns and typical values, in order to be used to estimate the global solar radiation along a different year. Validation was done over the year 2003, obtaining an annual estimation less than 10 % different to the measured value. (Author)

  14. A process to estimate net infiltration using a site-scale water-budget approach, Rainier Mesa, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, 2002–05

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, David W.; Moreo, Michael T.; Garcia, C. Amanda; Halford, Keith J.; Fenelon, Joseph M.

    2017-08-29

    This report documents a process used to estimate net infiltration from precipitation, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil data acquired at two sites on Rainier Mesa. Rainier Mesa is a groundwater recharge area within the Nevada National Security Site where recharged water flows through bedrock fractures to a deep (450 meters) water table. The U.S. Geological Survey operated two ET stations on Rainier Mesa from 2002 to 2005 at sites characterized by pinyon-juniper and scrub-brush vegetative cover. Precipitation and ET data were corrected to remove measurement biases and gap-filled to develop continuous datasets. Net infiltration (percolation below the root zone) and changes in root-zone water storage were estimated using a monthly water-balance model.Site-scale water-budget results indicate that the heavily-fractured welded-tuff bedrock underlying thin (water source for vegetation during dry periods. Annual precipitation during the study period ranged from fourth lowest (182 millimeters [mm]) to second highest (708 mm) on record (record = 55 years). Annual ET exceeded precipitation during dry years, indicating that the fractured-bedrock reservoir capacity is sufficient to meet atmospheric-evaporative demands and to sustain vegetation through extended dry periods. Net infiltration (82 mm) was simulated during the wet year after the reservoir was rapidly filled to capacity. These results support previous conclusions that preferential fracture flow was induced, resulting in an episodic recharge pulse that was detected in nearby monitoring wells. The occurrence of net infiltration only during the wet year is consistent with detections of water-level rises in nearby monitoring wells that occur only following wet years.

  15. Installation restoration program: Hydrologic measurements with an estimated hydrologic budget for the Joliet Army Ammunition Plant, Joliet, Illinois. [Contains maps of monitoring well locations, topography and hydrologic basins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diodato, D.M.; Cho, H.E.; Sundell, R.C.

    1991-07-01

    Hydrologic data were gathered from the 36.8-mi{sup 2} Joliet Army Ammunition Plant (JAAP) located in Joliet, Illinois. Surface water levels were measured continuously, and groundwater levels were measured monthly. The resulting information was entered into a database that could be used as part of numerical flow model validation for the site. Deep sandstone aquifers supply much of the water in the JAAP region. These aquifers are successively overlain by confining shales and a dolomite aquifer of Silurian age. This last unit is unconformably overlain by Pleistocene glacial tills and outwash sand and gravel. Groundwater levels in the shallow glacial system fluctuate widely, with one well completed in an upland fluctuating more than 17 ft during the study period. The response to groundwater recharge in the underlying Silurian dolomite is slower. In the upland recharge areas, increased groundwater levels were observed; in the lowland discharge areas, groundwater levels decreased during the study period. The decreases are postulated to be a lag effect related to a 1988 drought. These observations show that fluid at the JAAP is not steady-state, either on a monthly or an annual basis. Hydrologic budgets were estimated for the two principal surface water basins at the JAAP site. These basins account for 70% of the facility's total land area. Meteorological data collected at a nearby dam show that total measured precipitation was 31.45 in. and total calculated evapotranspiration was 23.09 in. for the study period. The change in surface water storage was assumed to be zero for the annual budget for each basin. The change in groundwater storage was calculated to be 0.12 in. for the Grant Creek basin and 0. 26 in. for the Prairie Creek basin. Runoff was 7.02 in. and 7.51 in. for the Grant Creek and Prairie Creek basins, respectively. The underflow to the deep hydrogeologic system in the Grant Creek basin was calculated to be negligible. 12 refs., 17 figs., 15 tabs.

  16. Aerial photography based census of Adélie Penguin and its application in CH4 and N2O budget estimation in Victoria Land, Antarctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Hong; Cheng, Xiao; Li, Xianglan; Zhu, Renbin; Hui, Fengming; Wu, Wenhui; Zhao, Tiancheng; Kang, Jing; Tang, Jianwu

    2017-10-11

    Penguin guano provides favorable conditions for production and emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Many studies have been conducted to determine the GHG fluxes from penguin colonies, however, at regional scale, there is still no accurate estimation of total GHG emissions. We used object-based image analysis (OBIA) method to estimate the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) population based on aerial photography data. A model was developed to estimate total GHG emission potential from Adélie penguin colonies during breeding seasons in 1983 and 2012, respectively. Results indicated that OBIA method was effective for extracting penguin information from aerial photographs. There were 17,120 and 21,183 Adélie penguin breeding pairs on Inexpressible Island in 1983 and 2012, respectively, with overall accuracy of the estimation of 76.8%. The main reasons for the increase in Adélie penguin populations were attributed to increase in temperature, sea ice and phytoplankton. The average estimated CH 4 and N 2 O emissions tended to be increasing during the period from 1983 to 2012 and CH 4 was the main GHG emitted from penguin colonies. Total global warming potential (GWP) of CH 4 and N 2 O emissions was 5303 kg CO 2 -eq in 1983 and 6561 kg CO 2 -eq in 2012, respectively.

  17. Derivation and analysis of a high-resolution estimate of global permafrost zonation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Gruber

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Permafrost underlies much of Earth's surface and interacts with climate, eco-systems and human systems. It is a complex phenomenon controlled by climate and (sub- surface properties and reacts to change with variable delay. Heterogeneity and sparse data challenge the modeling of its spatial distribution. Currently, there is no data set to adequately inform global studies of permafrost. The available data set for the Northern Hemisphere is frequently used for model evaluation, but its quality and consistency are difficult to assess. Here, a global model of permafrost extent and dataset of permafrost zonation are presented and discussed, extending earlier studies by including the Southern Hemisphere, by consistent data and methods, by attention to uncertainty and scaling. Established relationships between air temperature and the occurrence of permafrost are re-formulated into a model that is parametrized using published estimates. It is run with a high-resolution (<1 km global elevation data and air temperatures based on the NCAR-NCEP reanalysis and CRU TS 2.0. The resulting data provide more spatial detail and a consistent extrapolation to remote regions, while aggregated values resemble previous studies. The estimated uncertainties affect regional patterns and aggregate number, and provide interesting insight. The permafrost area, i.e. the actual surface area underlain by permafrost, north of 60° S is estimated to be 13–18 × 106 km2 or 9–14 % of the exposed land surface. The global permafrost area including Antarctic and sub-sea permafrost is estimated to be 16–21 × 106 km2. The global permafrost region, i.e. the exposed land surface below which some permafrost can be expected, is estimated to be 22 ± 3 × 106 km2. A large proportion of this exhibits considerable topography and spatially-discontinuous permafrost, underscoring the importance of attention to scaling issues

  18. Causes of Death Data in the Global Burden of Disease Estimates for Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truelsen, Thomas; Krarup, Lars-Henrik; Iversen, Helle K; Mensah, George A; Feigin, Valery L; Sposato, Luciano A; Naghavi, Mohsen

    2015-01-01

    Stroke mortality estimates in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study are based on routine mortality statistics and redistribution of ill-defined codes that cannot be a cause of death, the so-called 'garbage codes' (GCs). This study describes the contribution of these codes to stroke mortality estimates. All available mortality data were compiled and non-specific cause codes were redistributed based on literature review and statistical methods. Ill-defined codes were redistributed to their specific cause of disease by age, sex, country and year. The reassignment was done based on the International Classification of Diseases and the pathology behind each code by checking multiple causes of death and literature review. Unspecified stroke and primary and secondary hypertension are leading contributing 'GCs' to stroke mortality estimates for hemorrhagic stroke (HS) and ischemic stroke (IS). There were marked differences in the fraction of death assigned to IS and HS for unspecified stroke and hypertension between GBD regions and between age groups. A large proportion of stroke fatalities are derived from the redistribution of 'unspecified stroke' and 'hypertension' with marked regional differences. Future advancements in stroke certification, data collections and statistical analyses may improve the estimation of the global stroke burden. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  19. Annual global tree cover estimated by fusing optical and SAR satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, M.; Sexton, J. O.; Channan, S.; Townshend, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    Tree cover defined structurally as the proportional, vertically projected area of vegetation (including leaves, stems, branches, etc.) of woody plants above a given height affects terrestrial energy and water exchanges, photosynthesis and transpiration, net primary production, and carbon and nutrient fluxes. Tree cover provides a measurable attribute upon which forest cover may be defined. Changes in tree cover over time can be used to monitor and retrieve site-specific histories of forest disturbance, succession, and degradation. Measurements of Earth's tree cover have been produced at regional, national, and global extents. However, most representations are static, and those for which multiple time periods have been produced are neither intended nor adequate for consistent, long-term monitoring. Moreover, although a substantial proportion of change has been shown to occur at resolutions below 250 m, existing long-term, Landsat-resolution datasets are either produced as static layers or with annual, five- or ten-year temporal resolution. We have developed an algorithms to retrieve seamless and consistent, sub-hectare resolution estimates of tree-canopy from optical and radar satellite data sources (e.g., Landsat, Sentinel-2, and ALOS-PALSAR). Our approach to estimation enables assimilation of multiple data sources and produces estimates of both cover and its uncertainty at the scale of pixels. It has generated the world's first Landsat-based percent tree cover dataset in 2013. Our previous algorithms are being adapted to produce prototype percent-tree and water-cover layers globally in 2000, 2005, and 2010—as well as annually over North and South America from 2010 to 2015—from passive-optical (Landsat and Sentinel-2) and SAR measurements. Generating a global, annual dataset is beyond the scope of this support; however, North and South America represent all of the world's major biomes and so offer the complete global range of environmental sources of error and

  20. Sunshine-based estimation of global solar radiation on horizontal surface at Lake Van region (Turkey)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duzen, Hacer; Aydin, Harun

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► The global solar radiation at Lake Van region is estimated. ► This study is unique for the Lake Van region. ► Solar radiation around Lake Van has the highest value at the east-southeast region. ► The annual average solar energy potential is obtained as 750–2458 kWh/m 2 . ► Results can be used to estimate evaporation. - Abstract: In this study several sunshine-based regression models have been evaluated to estimate monthly average daily global solar radiation on horizontal surface of Lake Van region in the Eastern Anatolia region in Turkey by using data obtained from seven different meteorological stations. These models are derived from Angström–Prescott linear regression model and its derivatives such as quadratic, cubic, logarithmic and exponential. The performance of this regression models were evaluated by comparing the calculated clearness index and the measured clearness index. Several statistical tests were used to control the validation and goodness of the regression models in terms of the coefficient of determination, mean percent error, mean absolute percent error, mean biased error, mean absolute biased error, root mean square error and t-statistic. The results of all the regression models are within acceptable limits according to the statistical tests. However, the best performances are obtained by cubic regression model for Bitlis, Gevaş, Hakkari, Muş stations and by quadratic regression model for Malazgirt, Tatvan and Van stations to predict global solar radiation. The spatial distributions of the monthly average daily global solar radiation around the Lake Van region were obtained with interpolation of calculated solar radiation data that acquired from best fit models of the stations. The annual average solar energy potential for Lake Van region is obtained between 750 kWh/m 2 and 2485 kWh/m 2 with annual average of 1610 kWh/m 2 .

  1. Global and regional estimates of COPD prevalence: Systematic review and meta–analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davies Adeloye

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD across many world regions is high. We aim to estimate COPD prevalence and number of disease cases for the years 1990 and 2010 across world regions based on the best available evidence in publicly accessible scientific databases. We conducted a systematic search of Medline, EMBASE and Global Health for original, population–based studies providing spirometry–based prevalence rates of COPD across the world from January 1990 to December 2014. Random effects meta–analysis was conducted on extracted crude prevalence rates of COPD, with overall summaries of the meta–estimates (and confidence intervals reported separately for World Health Organization (WHO regions, the World Bank's income categories and settings (urban and rural. We developed a meta–regression epidemiological model that we used to estimate the prevalence of COPD in people aged 30 years or more. Our search returned 37 472 publications. A total of 123 studies based on a spirometry–defined prevalence were retained for the review. From the meta–regression epidemiological model, we estimated about 227.3 million COPD cases in the year 1990 among people aged 30 years or more, corresponding to a global prevalence of 10.7% (95% confidence interval (CI 7.3%–14.0% in this age group. The number of COPD cases increased to 384 million in 2010, with a global prevalence of 11.7% (8.4%–15.0%. This increase of 68.9% was mainly driven by global demographic changes. Across WHO regions, the highest prevalence was estimated in the Americas (13.3% in 1990 and 15.2% in 2010, and the lowest in South East Asia (7.9% in 1990 and 9.7% in 2010. The percentage increase in COPD cases between 1990 and 2010 was the highest in the Eastern Mediterranean region (118.7%, followed by the African region (102.1%, while the European region recorded the lowest increase (22.5%. In 1990, we estimated about 120.9 million COPD cases among urban dwellers

  2. Estimating Global Ecosystem Isohydry/Anisohydry Using Active and Passive Microwave Satellite Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yan; Guan, Kaiyu; Gentine, Pierre; Konings, Alexandra G.; Meinzer, Frederick C.; Kimball, John S.; Xu, Xiangtao; Anderegg, William R. L.; McDowell, Nate G.; Martinez-Vilalta, Jordi; Long, David G.; Good, Stephen P.

    2017-12-01

    The concept of isohydry/anisohydry describes the degree to which plants regulate their water status, operating from isohydric with strict regulation to anisohydric with less regulation. Though some species level measures of isohydry/anisohydry exist at a few locations, ecosystem-scale information is still largely unavailable. In this study, we use diurnal observations from active (Ku-Band backscatter from QuikSCAT) and passive (X-band vegetation optical depth (VOD) from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS Aqua) microwave satellite data to estimate global ecosystem isohydry/anisohydry. Here diurnal observations from both satellites approximate predawn and midday plant canopy water contents, which are used to estimate isohydry/anisohydry. The two independent estimates from radar backscatter and VOD show reasonable agreement at low and middle latitudes but diverge at high latitudes. Grasslands, croplands, wetlands, and open shrublands are more anisohydric, whereas evergreen broadleaf and deciduous broadleaf forests are more isohydric. The direct validation with upscaled in situ species isohydry/anisohydry estimates indicates that the VOD-based estimates have much better agreement than the backscatter-based estimates. The indirect validation with prior knowledge suggests that both estimates are generally consistent in that vegetation water status of anisohydric ecosystems more closely tracks environmental fluctuations of water availability and demand than their isohydric counterparts. However, uncertainties still exist in the isohydry/anisohydry estimate, primarily arising from the remote sensing data and, to a lesser extent, from the methodology. The comprehensive assessment in this study can help us better understand the robustness, limitation, and uncertainties of the satellite-derived isohydry/anisohydry estimates. The ecosystem isohydry/anisohydry has the potential to reveal new insights into spatiotemporal ecosystem response to droughts.

  3. Home - House Budget Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    Initiatives Hearings Full Menu About Toggle Links Members History Staff Rules & Budget Law News Toggle Links Press Releases Budget Digests HBC Publications Op-Eds Speeches & Statements Budgets Toggle Links FY 2018 Budget FY 2017 Budget FY 2017 Reconciliation FY 2016 Budget FY 2016 Reconciliation FY 2015

  4. Global estimation of long-term persistence in annual river runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markonis, Y.; Moustakis, Y.; Nasika, C.; Sychova, P.; Dimitriadis, P.; Hanel, M.; Máca, P.; Papalexiou, S. M.

    2018-03-01

    Long-term persistence (LTP) of annual river runoff is a topic of ongoing hydrological research, due to its implications to water resources management. Here, we estimate its strength, measured by the Hurst coefficient H, in 696 annual, globally distributed, streamflow records with at least 80 years of data. We use three estimation methods (maximum likelihood estimator, Whittle estimator and least squares variance) resulting in similar mean values of H close to 0.65. Subsequently, we explore potential factors influencing H by two linear (Spearman's rank correlation, multiple linear regression) and two non-linear (self-organizing maps, random forests) techniques. Catchment area is found to be crucial for medium to larger watersheds, while climatic controls, such as aridity index, have higher impact to smaller ones. Our findings indicate that long-term persistence is weaker than found in other studies, suggesting that enhanced LTP is encountered in large-catchment rivers, were the effect of spatial aggregation is more intense. However, we also show that the estimated values of H can be reproduced by a short-term persistence stochastic model such as an auto-regressive AR(1) process. A direct consequence is that some of the most common methods for the estimation of H coefficient, might not be suitable for discriminating short- and long-term persistence even in long observational records.

  5. Estimation of monthly-mean daily global solar radiation based on MODIS and TRMM products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qin, Jun; Chen, Zhuoqi; Yang, Kun; Liang, Shunlin; Tang, Wenjun

    2011-01-01

    Global solar radiation (GSR) is required in a large number of fields. Many parameterization schemes are developed to estimate it using routinely measured meteorological variables, since GSR is directly measured at a limited number of stations. Even so, meteorological stations are sparse, especially, in remote areas. Satellite signals (radiance at the top of atmosphere in most cases) can be used to estimate continuous GSR in space. However, many existing remote sensing products have a relatively coarse spatial resolution and these inversion algorithms are too complicated to be mastered by experts in other research fields. In this study, the artificial neural network (ANN) is utilized to build the mathematical relationship between measured monthly-mean daily GSR and several high-level remote sensing products available for the public, including Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) monthly averaged land surface temperature (LST), the number of days in which the LST retrieval is performed in 1 month, MODIS enhanced vegetation index, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite (TRMM) monthly precipitation. After training, GSR estimates from this ANN are verified against ground measurements at 12 radiation stations. Then, comparisons are performed among three GSR estimates, including the one presented in this study, a surface data-based estimate, and a remote sensing product by Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Validation results indicate that the ANN-based method presented in this study can estimate monthly-mean daily GSR at a spatial resolution of about 5 km with high accuracy.

  6. Fiscal year 1993 budget estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The US Congress has determined that the safe use of nuclear materials for peaceful purposes is a legitimate and important national goal. It has entrusted the NRC with the primary Federal responsibility for achieving that goal. The NRC's mission, therefore, is to ensure adequate protection for the public health and safety, the common defense and security, and the environment in the use of nuclear materials in the United States. The NRC's scope of responsibility incudes regulation of commercial nuclear power plants; research, test, and training reactors; fuel cycle facilities; medical, academic, and industrial uses of nuclear materials; and the transport, storage, and disposal of nuclear materials and wastes. The NRC carries out its mission by setting standards and requirements that licensees must meet to design,construct, and operate safe facilities, in the form of rules, license conditions, and regulatory guidance; inspecting facilities and taking enforcement action, as necessary, to ensure that such standards are followed; and conducting research to support, confirm, or refine judgments used in regulatory decisions. The technologies involved in the use of nuclear energy are relatively new and complex. Regulatory decisions often require conservatism to account for technical uncertainty. Conservatisms should be modified appropriately as increased understanding of physical phenomena and interactions is achieved. Further, essential functions must be maintained through appropriate combinations of high component and system reliability, redundancy, and diversity to provide multiple barriers to the release of radiation (defense-in-depth)

  7. Global Warming Estimation from MSU: Correction for Drift and Calibration Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz), made in the nadir direction from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA morning satellites (NOAA 6, 10 and 12 that have about 7am/7pm orbital geometry) and afternoon satellites (NOAA 7, 9, 11 and 14 that have about 2am/2pm orbital geometry) are analyzed in this study to derive global temperature trend from 1980 to 1998. In order to remove the discontinuities between the data of the successive satellites and to get a continuous time series, first we have used shortest possible time record of each satellite. In this way we get a preliminary estimate of the global temperature trend of 0.21 K/decade. However, this estimate is affected by systematic time-dependent errors. One such error is the instrument calibration error. This error can be inferred whenever there are overlapping measurements made by two satellites over an extended period of time. From the available successive satellite data we have taken the longest possible time record of each satellite to form the time series during the period 1980 to 1998 to this error. We find we can decrease the global temperature trend by about 0.07 K/decade. In addition there are systematic time dependent errors present in the data that are introduced by the drift in the satellite orbital geometry arises from the diurnal cycle in temperature which is the drift related change in the calibration of the MSU. In order to analyze the nature of these drift related errors the multi-satellite Ch 2 data set is partitioned into am and pm subsets to create two independent time series. The error can be assessed in the am and pm data of Ch 2 on land and can be eliminated. Observations made in the MSU Ch 1 (50.3 GHz) support this approach. The error is obvious only in the difference between the pm and am observations of Ch 2 over the ocean. We have followed two different paths to assess the impact of the errors on the global temperature trend. In one path the

  8. Permafrost degradation and associated ground settlement estimation under 2 °C global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Donglin; Wang, Huijun

    2017-10-01

    Global warming of 2 °C above preindustrial levels has been considered to be the threshold that should not be exceeded by the global mean temperature to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system. However, this global mean target has different implications for different regions owing to the globally nonuniform climate change characteristics. Permafrost is sensitive to climate change; moreover, it is widely distributed in high-latitude and high-altitude regions where the greatest warming is predicted. Permafrost is expected to be severely affected by even the 2 °C global warming, which, in turn, affects other systems such as water resources, ecosystems, and infrastructures. Using air and soil temperature data from ten coupled model intercomparison project phase five models combined with observations of frozen ground, we investigated the permafrost thaw and associated ground settlement under 2 °C global warming. Results show that the climate models produced an ensemble mean permafrost area of 14.01 × 106 km2, which compares reasonably with the area of 13.89 × 106 km2 (north of 45°N) in the observations. The models predict that the soil temperature at 6 m depth will increase by 2.34-2.67 °C on area average relative to 1990-2000, and the increase intensifies with increasing latitude. The active layer thickness will also increase by 0.42-0.45 m, but dissimilar to soil temperature, the increase weakens with increasing latitude due to the distinctly cooler permafrost at higher latitudes. The permafrost extent will obviously retreat north and decrease by 24-26% and the ground settlement owing to permafrost thaw is estimated at 3.8-15 cm on area average. Possible uncertainties in this study may be mostly attributed to the less accurate ground ice content data and coarse horizontal resolution of the models.

  9. A global approach to estimate irrigated areas - a comparison between different data and statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Jonas; Zabel, Florian; Mauser, Wolfram

    2018-02-01

    Agriculture is the largest global consumer of water. Irrigated areas constitute 40 % of the total area used for agricultural production (FAO, 2014a) Information on their spatial distribution is highly relevant for regional water management and food security. Spatial information on irrigation is highly important for policy and decision makers, who are facing the transition towards more efficient sustainable agriculture. However, the mapping of irrigated areas still represents a challenge for land use classifications, and existing global data sets differ strongly in their results. The following study tests an existing irrigation map based on statistics and extends the irrigated area using ancillary data. The approach processes and analyzes multi-temporal normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) SPOT-VGT data and agricultural suitability data - both at a spatial resolution of 30 arcsec - incrementally in a multiple decision tree. It covers the period from 1999 to 2012. The results globally show a 18 % larger irrigated area than existing approaches based on statistical data. The largest differences compared to the official national statistics are found in Asia and particularly in China and India. The additional areas are mainly identified within already known irrigated regions where irrigation is more dense than previously estimated. The validation with global and regional products shows the large divergence of existing data sets with respect to size and distribution of irrigated areas caused by spatial resolution, the considered time period and the input data and assumption made.

  10. Estimation of global solar radiation on horizontal surfaces in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Sebaii, A.A.; Al-Ghamdi, A.A.; Al-Hazmi, F.S.; Faidah, Adel S.

    2009-01-01

    The measured data of global solar radiation on a horizontal surface, as well as the number of sunshine hours, mean daily ambient temperature, maximum and minimum ambient temperatures, relative humidity and amount of cloud cover, for Jeddah (latitude 21 deg. 42'37''N, longitude 39 deg. 11'12''E), Saudi Arabia for the period 1996-2006 are analyzed. The data are divided into two sets. The sub-data set 1 (1996-2004) are employed to develop empirical correlations between the monthly average of daily global solar radiation fraction (H/H 0 ) and various meteorological parameters. The nonlinear Angstroem type model developed by Sen and the trigonometric function model proposed by Bulut and Bueyuekalaca are also evaluated. New empirical constants for these two models have been obtained for Jeddah. The sub-data set 2 (2005, 2006) are then used to evaluate the derived correlations. Comparisons between measured and calculated values of H have been performed. It is indicated that, the Sen and Bulut and Bueyuekalaca models satisfactorily describe the horizontal global solar radiation for Jeddah. All the proposed correlations are found to be able to predict the annual average of daily global solar radiation with excellent accuracy. Therefore, the long term performance of solar energy devices can be estimated.

  11. Position Estimation and Local Mapping Using Omnidirectional Images and Global Appearance Descriptors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yerai Berenguer

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This work presents some methods to create local maps and to estimate the position of a mobile robot, using the global appearance of omnidirectional images. We use a robot that carries an omnidirectional vision system on it. Every omnidirectional image acquired by the robot is described only with one global appearance descriptor, based on the Radon transform. In the work presented in this paper, two different possibilities have been considered. In the first one, we assume the existence of a map previously built composed of omnidirectional images that have been captured from previously-known positions. The purpose in this case consists of estimating the nearest position of the map to the current position of the robot, making use of the visual information acquired by the robot from its current (unknown position. In the second one, we assume that we have a model of the environment composed of omnidirectional images, but with no information about the location of where the images were acquired. The purpose in this case consists of building a local map and estimating the position of the robot within this map. Both methods are tested with different databases (including virtual and real images taking into consideration the changes of the position of different objects in the environment, different lighting conditions and occlusions. The results show the effectiveness and the robustness of both methods.

  12. Plate Motion and Crustal Deformation Estimated with Geodetic Data from the Global Positioning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Argus, Donald F.; Heflin, Michael B.

    1995-01-01

    We use geodetic data taken over four years with the Global Positioning System (GPS) to estimate: (1) motion between six major plates and (2) motion relative to these plates of ten sites in plate boundary zones. The degree of consistency between geodetic velocities and rigid plates requires the (one-dimensional) standard errors in horizontal velocities to be approx. 2 mm/yr. Each of the 15 angular velocities describing motion between plate pairs that we estimate with GPS differs insignificantly from the corresponding angular velocity in global plate motion model NUVEL-1A, which averages motion over the past 3 m.y. The motion of the Pacific plate relative to both the Eurasian and North American plates is observed to be faster than predicted by NUVEL-1A, supporting the inference from Very Long B ase- line Interferometry (VLBI) that motion of the Pacific plate has speed up over the past few m.y. The Eurasia-North America pole of rotation is estimated to be north of NUVEL-1A, consistent with the independent hypothesis that the pole has recently migrated northward across northeast Asia to near the Lena River delta. Victoria, which lies above the main thrust at the Cascadia subduction zone, moves relative to the interior of the overriding plate at 30% of the velocity of the subducting plate, reinforcing the conclusion that the thrust there is locked beneath the continental shelf and slope.

  13. Temperature-based estimation of global solar radiation using soft computing methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadi, Kasra; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Danesh, Amir Seyed; Abdullah, Mohd Shahidan; Zamani, Mazdak

    2016-07-01

    Precise knowledge of solar radiation is indeed essential in different technological and scientific applications of solar energy. Temperature-based estimation of global solar radiation would be appealing owing to broad availability of measured air temperatures. In this study, the potentials of soft computing techniques are evaluated to estimate daily horizontal global solar radiation (DHGSR) from measured maximum, minimum, and average air temperatures ( T max, T min, and T avg) in an Iranian city. For this purpose, a comparative evaluation between three methodologies of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), radial basis function support vector regression (SVR-rbf), and polynomial basis function support vector regression (SVR-poly) is performed. Five combinations of T max, T min, and T avg are served as inputs to develop ANFIS, SVR-rbf, and SVR-poly models. The attained results show that all ANFIS, SVR-rbf, and SVR-poly models provide favorable accuracy. Based upon all techniques, the higher accuracies are achieved by models (5) using T max- T min and T max as inputs. According to the statistical results, SVR-rbf outperforms SVR-poly and ANFIS. For SVR-rbf (5), the mean absolute bias error, root mean square error, and correlation coefficient are 1.1931 MJ/m2, 2.0716 MJ/m2, and 0.9380, respectively. The survey results approve that SVR-rbf can be used efficiently to estimate DHGSR from air temperatures.

  14. Global and Multi-National Prevalence of Fungal Diseases—Estimate Precision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Bongomin

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Fungal diseases kill more than 1.5 million and affect over a billion people. However, they are still a neglected topic by public health authorities even though most deaths from fungal diseases are avoidable. Serious fungal infections occur as a consequence of other health problems including asthma, AIDS, cancer, organ transplantation and corticosteroid therapies. Early accurate diagnosis allows prompt antifungal therapy; however this is often delayed or unavailable leading to death, serious chronic illness or blindness. Recent global estimates have found 3,000,000 cases of chronic pulmonary aspergillosis, ~223,100 cases of cryptococcal meningitis complicating HIV/AIDS, ~700,000 cases of invasive candidiasis, ~500,000 cases of Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia, ~250,000 cases of invasive aspergillosis, ~100,000 cases of disseminated histoplasmosis, over 10,000,000 cases of fungal asthma and ~1,000,000 cases of fungal keratitis occur annually. Since 2013, the Leading International Fungal Education (LIFE portal has facilitated the estimation of the burden of serious fungal infections country by country for over 5.7 billion people (>80% of the world’s population. These studies have shown differences in the global burden between countries, within regions of the same country and between at risk populations. Here we interrogate the accuracy of these fungal infection burden estimates in the 43 published papers within the LIFE initiative.

  15. Global Appearance Applied to Visual Map Building and Path Estimation Using Multiscale Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Amorós

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work we present a topological map building and localization system for mobile robots based on global appearance of visual information. We include a comparison and analysis of global-appearance techniques applied to wide-angle scenes in retrieval tasks. Next, we define multiscale analysis, which permits improving the association between images and extracting topological distances. Then, a topological map-building algorithm is proposed. At first, the algorithm has information only of some isolated positions of the navigation area in the form of nodes. Each node is composed of a collection of images that covers the complete field of view from a certain position. The algorithm solves the node retrieval and estimates their spatial arrangement. With these aims, it uses the visual information captured along some routes that cover the navigation area. As a result, the algorithm builds a graph that reflects the distribution and adjacency relations between nodes (map. After the map building, we also propose a route path estimation system. This algorithm takes advantage of the multiscale analysis. The accuracy in the pose estimation is not reduced to the nodes locations but also to intermediate positions between them. The algorithms have been tested using two different databases captured in real indoor environments under dynamic conditions.

  16. Estimating shaking-induced casualties and building damage for global earthquake events: a proposed modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    So, Emily; Spence, Robin

    2013-01-01

    Recent earthquakes such as the Haiti earthquake of 12 January 2010 and the Qinghai earthquake on 14 April 2010 have highlighted the importance of rapid estimation of casualties after the event for humanitarian response. Both of these events resulted in surprisingly high death tolls, casualties and survivors made homeless. In the Mw = 7.0 Haiti earthquake, over 200,000 people perished with more than 300,000 reported injuries and 2 million made homeless. The Mw = 6.9 earthquake in Qinghai resulted in over 2,000 deaths with a further 11,000 people with serious or moderate injuries and 100,000 people have been left homeless in this mountainous region of China. In such events relief efforts can be significantly benefitted by the availability of rapid estimation and mapping of expected casualties. This paper contributes to ongoing global efforts to estimate probable earthquake casualties very rapidly after an earthquake has taken place. The analysis uses the assembled empirical damage and casualty data in the Cambridge Earthquake Impacts Database (CEQID) and explores data by event and across events to test the relationships of building and fatality distributions to the main explanatory variables of building type, building damage level and earthquake intensity. The prototype global casualty estimation model described here uses a semi-empirical approach that estimates damage rates for different classes of buildings present in the local building stock, and then relates fatality rates to the damage rates of each class of buildings. This approach accounts for the effect of the very different types of buildings (by climatic zone, urban or rural location, culture, income level etc), on casualties. The resulting casualty parameters were tested against the overall casualty data from several historical earthquakes in CEQID; a reasonable fit was found.

  17. The Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN: a high resolution global model to estimate the emissions from open burning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Wiedinmyer

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The Fire INventory from NCAR version 1.0 (FINNv1 provides daily, 1 km resolution, global estimates of the trace gas and particle emissions from open burning of biomass, which includes wildfire, agricultural fires, and prescribed burning and does not include biofuel use and trash burning. Emission factors used in the calculations have been updated with recent data, particularly for the non-methane organic compounds (NMOC. The resulting global annual NMOC emission estimates are as much as a factor of 5 greater than some prior estimates. Chemical speciation profiles, necessary to allocate the total NMOC emission estimates to lumped species for use by chemical transport models, are provided for three widely used chemical mechanisms: SAPRC99, GEOS-CHEM, and MOZART-4. Using these profiles, FINNv1 also provides global estimates of key organic compounds, including formaldehyde and methanol. Uncertainties in the emissions estimates arise from several of the method steps. The use of fire hot spots, assumed area burned, land cover maps, biomass consumption estimates, and emission factors all introduce error into the model estimates. The uncertainty in the FINNv1 emission estimates are about a factor of two; but, the global estimates agree reasonably well with other global inventories of biomass burning emissions for CO, CO2, and other species with less variable emission factors. FINNv1 emission estimates have been developed specifically for modeling atmospheric chemistry and air quality in a consistent framework at scales from local to global. The product is unique because of the high temporal and spatial resolution, global coverage, and the number of species estimated. FINNv1 can be used for both hindcast and forecast or near-real time model applications and the results are being critically evaluated with models and observations whenever possible.

  18. Selective Segmentation for Global Optimization of Depth Estimation in Complex Scenes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheng Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a segmentation-based global optimization method for depth estimation. Firstly, for obtaining accurate matching cost, the original local stereo matching approach based on self-adapting matching window is integrated with two matching cost optimization strategies aiming at handling both borders and occlusion regions. Secondly, we employ a comprehensive smooth term to satisfy diverse smoothness request in real scene. Thirdly, a selective segmentation term is used for enforcing the plane trend constraints selectively on the corresponding segments to further improve the accuracy of depth results from object level. Experiments on the Middlebury image pairs show that the proposed global optimization approach is considerably competitive with other state-of-the-art matching approaches.

  19. World Health Organization Global Estimates and Regional Comparisons of the Burden of Foodborne Disease in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havelaar, Arie H.; Kirk, Martyn D.; Torgerson, Paul R.

    2015-01-01

    parasitic helminths, were highly localised. Thus, the burden of FBD is borne particularly by children under five years old-although they represent only 9% of the global population-and people living in low-income regions of the world. These estimates are conservative, i.e., underestimates rather than......Illness and death from diseases caused by contaminated food are a constant threat to public health and a significant impediment to socio-economic development worldwide. To measure the global and regional burden of foodborne disease (FBD), the World Health Organization (WHO) established...... different burdens of FBD, with the greatest falling on the subregions in Africa, followed by the subregions in South-East Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean D subregion. Some hazards, such as non-typhoidal S. enterica, were important causes of FBD in all regions of the world, whereas others, such as certain...

  20. Global cross-station assessment of neuro-fuzzy models for estimating daily reference evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiri, Jalal; Nazemi, Amir Hossein; Sadraddini, Ali Ashraf; Landeras, Gorka; Kisi, Ozgur; Fard, Ahmad Fakheri; Marti, Pau

    2013-02-01

    SummaryAccurate estimation of reference evapotranspiration is important for irrigation scheduling, water resources management and planning and other agricultural water management issues. In the present paper, the capabilities of generalized neuro-fuzzy models were evaluated for estimating reference evapotranspiration using two separate sets of weather data from humid and non-humid regions of Spain and Iran. In this way, the data from some weather stations in the Basque Country and Valencia region (Spain) were used for training the neuro-fuzzy models [in humid and non-humid regions, respectively] and subsequently, the data from these regions were pooled to evaluate the generalization capability of a general neuro-fuzzy model in humid and non-humid regions. The developed models were tested in stations of Iran, located in humid and non-humid regions. The obtained results showed the capabilities of generalized neuro-fuzzy model in estimating reference evapotranspiration in different climatic zones. Global GNF models calibrated using both non-humid and humid data were found to successfully estimate ET0 in both non-humid and humid regions of Iran (the lowest MAE values are about 0.23 mm for non-humid Iranian regions and 0.12 mm for humid regions). non-humid GNF models calibrated using non-humid data performed much better than the humid GNF models calibrated using humid data in non-humid region while the humid GNF model gave better estimates in humid region.

  1. Global estimates of syphilis in pregnancy and associated adverse outcomes: analysis of multinational antenatal surveillance data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lori Newman

    Full Text Available The World Health Organization initiative to eliminate mother-to-child transmission of syphilis aims for ≥ 90% of pregnant women to be tested for syphilis and ≥ 90% to receive treatment by 2015. We calculated global and regional estimates of syphilis in pregnancy and associated adverse outcomes for 2008, as well as antenatal care (ANC coverage for women with syphilis.Estimates were based upon a health service delivery model. National syphilis seropositivity data from 97 of 193 countries and ANC coverage from 147 countries were obtained from World Health Organization databases. Proportions of adverse outcomes and effectiveness of screening and treatment were from published literature. Regional estimates of ANC syphilis testing and treatment were examined through sensitivity analysis. In 2008, approximately 1.36 million (range: 1.16 to 1.56 million pregnant women globally were estimated to have probable active syphilis; of these, 80% had attended ANC. Globally, 520,905 (best case: 425,847; worst case: 615,963 adverse outcomes were estimated to be caused by maternal syphilis, including approximately 212,327 (174,938; 249,716 stillbirths (>28 wk or early fetal deaths (22 to 28 wk, 91,764 (76,141; 107,397 neonatal deaths, 65,267 (56,929; 73,605 preterm or low birth weight infants, and 151,547 (117,848; 185,245 infected newborns. Approximately 66% of adverse outcomes occurred in ANC attendees who were not tested or were not treated for syphilis. In 2008, based on the middle case scenario, clinical services likely averted 26% of all adverse outcomes. Limitations include missing syphilis seropositivity data for many countries in Europe, the Mediterranean, and North America, and use of estimates for the proportion of syphilis that was "probable active," and for testing and treatment coverage.Syphilis continues to affect large numbers of pregnant women, causing substantial perinatal morbidity and mortality that could be prevented by early testing and

  2. Global Estimates of Syphilis in Pregnancy and Associated Adverse Outcomes: Analysis of Multinational Antenatal Surveillance Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Lori; Kamb, Mary; Hawkes, Sarah; Gomez, Gabriela; Say, Lale; Seuc, Armando; Broutet, Nathalie

    2013-01-01

    Background The World Health Organization initiative to eliminate mother-to-child transmission of syphilis aims for ≥90% of pregnant women to be tested for syphilis and ≥90% to receive treatment by 2015. We calculated global and regional estimates of syphilis in pregnancy and associated adverse outcomes for 2008, as well as antenatal care (ANC) coverage for women with syphilis. Methods and Findings Estimates were based upon a health service delivery model. National syphilis seropositivity data from 97 of 193 countries and ANC coverage from 147 countries were obtained from World Health Organization databases. Proportions of adverse outcomes and effectiveness of screening and treatment were from published literature. Regional estimates of ANC syphilis testing and treatment were examined through sensitivity analysis. In 2008, approximately 1.36 million (range: 1.16 to 1.56 million) pregnant women globally were estimated to have probable active syphilis; of these, 80% had attended ANC. Globally, 520,905 (best case: 425,847; worst case: 615,963) adverse outcomes were estimated to be caused by maternal syphilis, including approximately 212,327 (174,938; 249,716) stillbirths (>28 wk) or early fetal deaths (22 to 28 wk), 91,764 (76,141; 107,397) neonatal deaths, 65,267 (56,929; 73,605) preterm or low birth weight infants, and 151,547 (117,848; 185,245) infected newborns. Approximately 66% of adverse outcomes occurred in ANC attendees who were not tested or were not treated for syphilis. In 2008, based on the middle case scenario, clinical services likely averted 26% of all adverse outcomes. Limitations include missing syphilis seropositivity data for many countries in Europe, the Mediterranean, and North America, and use of estimates for the proportion of syphilis that was “probable active,” and for testing and treatment coverage. Conclusions Syphilis continues to affect large numbers of pregnant women, causing substantial perinatal morbidity and mortality that

  3. The assessment of Global Precipitation Measurement estimates over the Indian subcontinent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murali Krishna, U. V.; Das, Subrata Kumar; Deshpande, Sachin M.; Doiphode, S. L.; Pandithurai, G.

    2017-08-01

    Accurate and real-time precipitation estimation is a challenging task for current and future spaceborne measurements, which is essential to understand the global hydrological cycle. Recently, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellites were launched as a next-generation rainfall mission for observing the global precipitation characteristics. The purpose of the GPM is to enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global precipitation. The main objective of the present study is to assess the rainfall products from the GPM, especially the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the GPM (IMERG) data by comparing with the ground-based observations. The multitemporal scale evaluations of rainfall involving subdaily, diurnal, monthly, and seasonal scales were performed over the Indian subcontinent. The comparison shows that the IMERG performed better than the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-3B42, although both rainfall products underestimated the observed rainfall compared to the ground-based measurements. The analyses also reveal that the TRMM-3B42 and IMERG data sets are able to represent the large-scale monsoon rainfall spatial features but are having region-specific biases. The IMERG shows significant improvement in low rainfall estimates compared to the TRMM-3B42 for selected regions. In the spatial distribution, the IMERG shows higher rain rates compared to the TRMM-3B42, due to its enhanced spatial and temporal resolutions. Apart from this, the characteristics of raindrop size distribution (DSD) obtained from the GPM mission dual-frequency precipitation radar is assessed over the complex mountain terrain site in the Western Ghats, India, using the DSD measured by a Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer.

  4. Global Impact Estimation of ISO 50001 Energy Management System for Industrial and Service Sectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aghajanzadeh, Arian [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Therkelsen, Peter L. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Rao, Prakash [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); McKane, Aimee T. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-08-01

    A methodology has been developed to determine the impacts of ISO 50001 Energy Management System (EnMS) at a region or country level. The impacts of ISO 50001 EnMS include energy, CO2 emissions, and cost savings. This internationally recognized and transparent methodology has been embodied in a user friendly Microsoft Excel® based tool called ISO 50001 Impact Estimator Tool (IET 50001). However, the tool inputs are critical in order to get accurate and defensible results. This report is intended to document the data sources used and assumptions made to calculate the global impact of ISO 50001 EnMS.

  5. Potential recovery for Reissner--Mindlin and Kirchhoff--Love plate models using global Carleman estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osses, Axel; Palacios, Benjamín

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we consider two linear plate models, namely the Reissner–Mindlin system (R–M) and the Kirchhoff–Love equation (K–L), which come from linear elasticity. We prove global Carleman inequalities for both models with boundary observations and under a suitable hypothesis on the parameters. We use these estimates to study the inverse problem of recovering a spatially dependent potential from knowledge of Neumann boundary data. We obtain L 2 -Lipschitz stability for K–L and H 1 -Lipschitz stability for R–M under the assumption that the potentials are equal at the boundary. (paper)

  6. Consistency of Estimated Global Water Cycle Variations Over the Satellite Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, F. R.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Roberts, J. B.; Reichle, R. H.; Adler, R.; Ricciardulli, L.; Berg, W.; Huffman, G. J.

    2013-01-01

    Motivated by the question of whether recent indications of decadal climate variability and a possible "climate shift" may have affected the global water balance, we examine evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability integrated over the global oceans and global land from three points of view-remotely sensed retrievals / objective analyses over the oceans, reanalysis vertically-integrated moisture convergence (MFC) over land, and land surface models forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation and near-surface meteorology. Because monthly variations in area-averaged atmospheric moisture storage are small and the global integral of moisture convergence must approach zero, area-integrated E-P over ocean should essentially equal precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET) over land (after adjusting for ocean and land areas). Our analysis reveals considerable uncertainty in the decadal variations of ocean evaporation when integrated to global scales. This is due to differences among datasets in 10m wind speed and near-surface atmospheric specific humidity (2m qa) used in bulk aerodynamic retrievals. Precipitation variations, all relying substantially on passive microwave retrievals over ocean, still have uncertainties in decadal variability, but not to the degree present with ocean evaporation estimates. Reanalysis MFC and P-ET over land from several observationally forced diagnostic and land surface models agree best on interannual variations. However, upward MFC (i.e. P-ET) reanalysis trends are likely related in part to observing system changes affecting atmospheric assimilation models. While some evidence for a low-frequency E-P maximum near 2000 is found, consistent with a recent apparent pause in sea-surface temperature (SST) rise, uncertainties in the datasets used here remain significant. Prospects for further reducing uncertainties are discussed. The results are interpreted in the context of recent climate variability (Pacific Decadal

  7. ISLSCP II Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) Radiation Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set contains global Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) and a few top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation budget parameters on a 1-degree x 1-degree spatial...

  8. Budget Update, November 9, 2010. Report 10-20

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolfork, Kevin

    2010-01-01

    On October 8, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signed the 2010-11 Budget Act for the State of California. This budget was the outcome of many months of negotiation between the Governor and the Legislature. The Governor vetoed $963 million in spending from the Legislature's budget, arriving at a budget that addresses an estimated $19.1 billion…

  9. 14 CFR 152.323 - Budget revision: Airport development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Budget revision: Airport development. 152... TRANSPORTATION (CONTINUED) AIRPORTS AIRPORT AID PROGRAM Accounting and Reporting Requirements § 152.323 Budget... change in the budget estimates, the sponsor shall submit a request for budget revision on a form...

  10. An assessment of the performance of global rainfall estimates without ground-based observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Massari

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Satellite-based rainfall estimates over land have great potential for a wide range of applications, but their validation is challenging due to the scarcity of ground-based observations of rainfall in many areas of the planet. Recent studies have suggested the use of triple collocation (TC to characterize uncertainties associated with rainfall estimates by using three collocated rainfall products. However, TC requires the simultaneous availability of three products with mutually uncorrelated errors, a requirement which is difficult to satisfy with current global precipitation data sets. In this study, a recently developed method for rainfall estimation from soil moisture observations, SM2RAIN, is demonstrated to facilitate the accurate application of TC within triplets containing two state-of-the-art satellite rainfall estimates and a reanalysis product. The validity of different TC assumptions are indirectly tested via a high-quality ground rainfall product over the contiguous United States (CONUS, showing that SM2RAIN can provide a truly independent source of rainfall accumulation information which uniquely satisfies the assumptions underlying TC. On this basis, TC is applied with SM2RAIN on a global scale in an optimal configuration to calculate, for the first time, reliable global correlations (vs. an unknown truth of the aforementioned products without using a ground benchmark data set. The analysis is carried out during the period 2007–2012 using daily rainfall accumulation products obtained at 1° × 1° spatial resolution. Results convey the relatively high performance of the satellite rainfall estimates in eastern North and South America, southern Africa, southern and eastern Asia, eastern Australia, and southern Europe, as well as complementary performances between the reanalysis product and SM2RAIN, with the first performing reasonably well in the Northern Hemisphere and the second providing very good performance in the Southern

  11. Global NOx emission estimates derived from an assimilation of OMI tropospheric NO2 columns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Sudo

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available A data assimilation system has been developed to estimate global nitrogen oxides (NOx emissions using OMI tropospheric NO2 columns (DOMINO product and a global chemical transport model (CTM, the Chemical Atmospheric GCM for Study of Atmospheric Environment and Radiative Forcing (CHASER. The data assimilation system, based on an ensemble Kalman filter approach, was applied to optimize daily NOx emissions with a horizontal resolution of 2.8° during the years 2005 and 2006. The background error covariance estimated from the ensemble CTM forecasts explicitly represents non-direct relationships between the emissions and tropospheric columns caused by atmospheric transport and chemical processes. In comparison to the a priori emissions based on bottom-up inventories, the optimized emissions were higher over eastern China, the eastern United States, southern Africa, and central-western Europe, suggesting that the anthropogenic emissions are mostly underestimated in the inventories. In addition, the seasonality of the estimated emissions differed from that of the a priori emission over several biomass burning regions, with a large increase over Southeast Asia in April and over South America in October. The data assimilation results were validated against independent data: SCIAMACHY tropospheric NO2 columns and vertical NO2 profiles obtained from aircraft and lidar measurements. The emission correction greatly improved the agreement between the simulated and observed NO2 fields; this implies that the data assimilation system efficiently derives NOx emissions from concentration observations. We also demonstrated that biases in the satellite retrieval and model settings used in the data assimilation largely affect the magnitude of estimated emissions. These dependences should be carefully considered for better understanding NOx sources from top-down approaches.

  12. Support vector regression methodology for estimating global solar radiation in Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guermoui, Mawloud; Rabehi, Abdelaziz; Gairaa, Kacem; Benkaciali, Said

    2018-01-01

    Accurate estimation of Daily Global Solar Radiation (DGSR) has been a major goal for solar energy applications. In this paper we show the possibility of developing a simple model based on the Support Vector Regression (SVM-R), which could be used to estimate DGSR on the horizontal surface in Algeria based only on sunshine ratio as input. The SVM model has been developed and tested using a data set recorded over three years (2005-2007). The data was collected at the Applied Research Unit for Renewable Energies (URAER) in Ghardaïa city. The data collected between 2005-2006 are used to train the model while the 2007 data are used to test the performance of the selected model. The measured and the estimated values of DGSR were compared during the testing phase statistically using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Relative Square Error (rRMSE), and correlation coefficient (r2), which amount to 1.59(MJ/m2), 8.46 and 97,4%, respectively. The obtained results show that the SVM-R is highly qualified for DGSR estimation using only sunshine ratio.

  13. Global robust stability of delayed neural networks: Estimating upper limit of norm of delayed connection weight matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Vimal

    2007-01-01

    The question of estimating the upper limit of -parallel B -parallel 2 , which is a key step in some recently reported global robust stability criteria for delayed neural networks, is revisited ( B denotes the delayed connection weight matrix). Recently, Cao, Huang, and Qu have given an estimate of the upper limit of -parallel B -parallel 2 . In the present paper, an alternative estimate of the upper limit of -parallel B -parallel 2 is highlighted. It is shown that the alternative estimate may yield some new global robust stability results

  14. Estimating the impact of +2 degrees of global warming on European Tourism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsanis, Ioannis; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Grillakis, Manolis; Konstantopoulos, Konstantinos; Jacob, Daniela

    2014-05-01

    The impact of a potential global temperature rise by 2oC on tourism is examined, within the framework of IMPACT2C FP7 project. The period of the specific increase was defined according to the global mean temperature projections from two GCM, BCM and HadCM3Q3. Simulations from two RCMs, driven by the aforementioned GCMs, in the frame of ENSEMBLES FP6 under A1B emission scenario were used to estimate the Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) which is a measure of climate favorability for outdoor leisure and recreational activities. Climate favorability related to summer tourism is expected to increase in most European countries moving from south to north. In the opposite, countries that traditionally attract "sun and sand" tourists like Italy, Spain, Greece, France, Portugal, Cyprus are projected to become uncomfortably hot for the months of the peak summer season. Both of the examined models provide consistent information about the direction of change, however SMHI shows a greater change in future TCI. The TCI between 1960 and 2000 was associated to bednights data, to reveal the correlation of the empirical index with a real tourism indicator. The resulted correlation function was then applied to the 2oC period, estimating the effect of the specific temperature rise to future tourism activity expressed in terms of projected bednights.

  15. Deriving global parameter estimates for the Noah land surface model using FLUXNET and machine learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaney, Nathaniel W.; Herman, Jonathan D.; Ek, Michael B.; Wood, Eric F.

    2016-11-01

    With their origins in numerical weather prediction and climate modeling, land surface models aim to accurately partition the surface energy balance. An overlooked challenge in these schemes is the role of model parameter uncertainty, particularly at unmonitored sites. This study provides global parameter estimates for the Noah land surface model using 85 eddy covariance sites in the global FLUXNET network. The at-site parameters are first calibrated using a Latin Hypercube-based ensemble of the most sensitive parameters, determined by the Sobol method, to be the minimum stomatal resistance (rs,min), the Zilitinkevich empirical constant (Czil), and the bare soil evaporation exponent (fxexp). Calibration leads to an increase in the mean Kling-Gupta Efficiency performance metric from 0.54 to 0.71. These calibrated parameter sets are then related to local environmental characteristics using the Extra-Trees machine learning algorithm. The fitted Extra-Trees model is used to map the optimal parameter sets over the globe at a 5 km spatial resolution. The leave-one-out cross validation of the mapped parameters using the Noah land surface model suggests that there is the potential to skillfully relate calibrated model parameter sets to local environmental characteristics. The results demonstrate the potential to use FLUXNET to tune the parameterizations of surface fluxes in land surface models and to provide improved parameter estimates over the globe.

  16. Merging Psychophysical and Psychometric Theory to Estimate Global Visual State Measures from Forced-Choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Massof, Robert W; Schmidt, Karen M; Laby, Daniel M; Kirschen, David; Meadows, David

    2013-01-01

    Visual acuity, a forced-choice psychophysical measure of visual spatial resolution, is the sine qua non of clinical visual impairment testing in ophthalmology and optometry patients with visual system disorders ranging from refractive error to retinal, optic nerve, or central visual system pathology. Visual acuity measures are standardized against a norm, but it is well known that visual acuity depends on a variety of stimulus parameters, including contrast and exposure duration. This paper asks if it is possible to estimate a single global visual state measure from visual acuity measures as a function of stimulus parameters that can represent the patient's overall visual health state with a single variable. Psychophysical theory (at the sensory level) and psychometric theory (at the decision level) are merged to identify the conditions that must be satisfied to derive a global visual state measure from parameterised visual acuity measures. A global visual state measurement model is developed and tested with forced-choice visual acuity measures from 116 subjects with no visual impairments and 560 subjects with uncorrected refractive error. The results are in agreement with the expectations of the model

  17. MODIS-based global terrestrial estimates of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, Y.; Baldocchi, D. D.; Kobayashi, H.; Li, J.; van Ingen, C.; Agarwal, D.; Jackson, K.; Humphrey, M.

    2010-12-01

    We propose a novel approach to quantify gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) at global scale (5 km resolution with 8-day interval). The MODIS-based, process-oriented approach couples photosynthesis, evaporation, two-leaf energy balance and nitrogen, which are different from the previous satellite-based approaches. We couple information from MODIS with flux towers to assess the drivers and parameters of GPP and ET. Incoming shortwave radiation components (direct and diffuse PAR, NIR) under all sky condition are modeled using a Monte-Carlo based atmospheric radiative transfer model. The MODIS Level 2 Atmospheric products are gridded and overlaid with MODIS Land products to produce spatially compatible forcing variables. GPP is modeled using a two-leaf model (sunlit and shaded leaf) and the maximum carboxylation rate is estimated using albedo-Nitrogen-leaf trait relations. The GPP is used to calculate canopy conductance via Ball-Berry model. Then, we apply Penman-Monteith equation to calculate evapotranspiration. The process-oriented approach allows us to investigate the main drivers of GPP and ET at global scale. Finally we explore the spatial and temporal variability of GPP and ET at global scale.

  18. Estimating the marginal cost of reducing global fossil fuel CO2 emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edmonds, J.; Barns, D.W.; McDonald, S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper estimates the marginal, total, and average cost and effectiveness of carbon taxes applied either by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) members alone, or as part of a global cooperative strategy, to reduce potential future emissions and their direct implications for employment in the US coal industry. Two sets of cases are examined, one set in which OECD members acts alone, and another set in which the world acts in concert. In each case set taxes are examined which achieve four alternative levels of emissions reduction: halve the rate of emissions growth, no emissions growth, 20% reduction from 1988 levels, and 50% reduction from 1988 levels. For the global cooperation case, carbon tax rates of $32, $113, $161, and $517 per metric ton of carbon (mtC) were needed in the year 2025 to achieve the objectives. Total costs were respectively $40, $178, $253, and $848 billions of 1990 US dollars per year in the year 2025. Average costs were $32, $55, $59, and $135 per mtC. Costs were significantly higher in the cases in which the OECD members states acted alone. OECD member states, acting alone, could not reduce global emissions by 50% or 20% relative to 1988, given reference case assumptions regarding developing and recently planned nations economic growth

  19. Estimation of hourly global solar irradiation on tilted planes from horizontal one using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Notton, Gilles; Paoli, Christophe; Vasileva, Siyana; Nivet, Marie Laure; Canaletti, Jean-Louis; Cristofari, Christian

    2012-01-01

    Calculating global solar irradiation from global horizontal irradiation only is a difficult task, especially when the time step is small and the data are not averaged. We used an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to realize this conversion. The ANN is optimized and tested on the basis of five years of solar data; the accuracy of the optimal configuration is around 6% for the RRMSE (relative root mean square error) and around 3.5% for the RMAE (relative mean absolute value) i.e. a better performance than the empirical correlations available in the literature. -- Highlights: ► ANN (Artificial Neural Network) methodology applied to hourly global solar irradiation in order to estimate tilted irradiations. ► Model validation with more than 23,000 data. ► Comparison with “conventional” models. ► The precision in the results is better than with empirical correlations. ► 6% for the RMSE (root means square error) and around 3.5% for the RMAE (Relative Mean Absolute Value).

  20. Global Ocean Circulation in Thermohaline Coordinates and Small-scale and Mesoscale mixing: An Inverse Estimate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groeskamp, S.; Zika, J. D.; McDougall, T. J.; Sloyan, B.

    2016-02-01

    I will present results of a new inverse technique that infers small-scale turbulent diffusivities and mesoscale eddy diffusivities from an ocean climatology of Salinity (S) and Temperature (T) in combination with surface freshwater and heat fluxes.First, the ocean circulation is represented in (S,T) coordinates, by the diathermohaline streamfunction. Framing the ocean circulation in (S,T) coordinates, isolates the component of the circulation that is directly related to water-mass transformation.Because water-mass transformation is directly related to fluxes of salt and heat, this framework allows for the formulation of an inverse method in which the diathermohaline streamfunction is balanced with known air-sea forcing and unknown mixing. When applying this inverse method to observations, we obtain observationally based estimates for both the streamfunction and the mixing. The results reveal new information about the component of the global ocean circulation due to water-mass transformation and its relation to surface freshwater and heat fluxes and small-scale and mesoscale mixing. The results provide global constraints on spatially varying patterns of diffusivities, in order to obtain a realistic overturning circulation. We find that mesoscale isopycnal mixing is much smaller than expected. These results are important for our understanding of the relation between global ocean circulation and mixing and may lead to improved parameterisations in numerical ocean models.

  1. Regional and global modeling estimates of policy relevant background ozone over the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emery, Christopher; Jung, Jaegun; Downey, Nicole; Johnson, Jeremiah; Jimenez, Michele; Yarwood, Greg; Morris, Ralph

    2012-02-01

    Policy Relevant Background (PRB) ozone, as defined by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), refers to ozone concentrations that would occur in the absence of all North American anthropogenic emissions. PRB enters into the calculation of health risk benefits, and as the US ozone standard approaches background levels, PRB is increasingly important in determining the feasibility and cost of compliance. As PRB is a hypothetical construct, modeling is a necessary tool. Since 2006 EPA has relied on global modeling to establish PRB for their regulatory analyses. Recent assessments with higher resolution global models exhibit improved agreement with remote observations and modest upward shifts in PRB estimates. This paper shifts the paradigm to a regional model (CAMx) run at 12 km resolution, for which North American boundary conditions were provided by a low-resolution version of the GEOS-Chem global model. We conducted a comprehensive model inter-comparison, from which we elucidate differences in predictive performance against ozone observations and differences in temporal and spatial background variability over the US. In general, CAMx performed better in replicating observations at remote monitoring sites, and performance remained better at higher concentrations. While spring and summer mean PRB predicted by GEOS-Chem ranged 20-45 ppb, CAMx predicted PRB ranged 25-50 ppb and reached well over 60 ppb in the west due to event-oriented phenomena such as stratospheric intrusion and wildfires. CAMx showed a higher correlation between modeled PRB and total observed ozone, which is significant for health risk assessments. A case study during April 2006 suggests that stratospheric exchange of ozone is underestimated in both models on an event basis. We conclude that wildfires, lightning NO x and stratospheric intrusions contribute a significant level of uncertainty in estimating PRB, and that PRB will require careful consideration in the ozone standard setting process.

  2. Estimates of global HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence and incidence rates, and their association with the Human Development Index

    OpenAIRE

    Kamyar Mansori; Erfan Ayubi; Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani; Shiva Mansouri Hanis; Somayeh Khazaei; Mohadeseh Sani; Yousef Moradi; Salman Khazaei; Abolfazl Mohammadbeigi

    2017-01-01

    Background: HIV/AIDS is one of greatest global public health concerns today due to the high incidence, prevalence and mortality rates. The aim of this research was investigate and estimate the global HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence and incidence rates, and explore their associations with the Human Development Index. Methods: The global age-standardized rates of mortality, prevalence and incidence of HIV/AIDS were obtained from the UNAIDS for different countries in 2015. The human developm...

  3. Evaluation of different models to estimate the global solar radiation on inclined surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demain, C.; Journée, M.; Bertrand, C.

    2012-04-01

    Global and diffuse solar radiation intensities are, in general, measured on horizontal surfaces, whereas stationary solar conversion systems (both flat plate solar collector and solar photovoltaic) are mounted on inclined surface to maximize the amount of solar radiation incident on the collector surface. Consequently, the solar radiation incident measured on a tilted surface has to be determined by converting solar radiation from horizontal surface to tilted surface of interest. This study evaluates the performance of 14 models transposing 10 minutes, hourly and daily diffuse solar irradiation from horizontal to inclined surface. Solar radiation data from 8 months (April to November 2011) which include diverse atmospheric conditions and solar altitudes, measured on the roof of the radiation tower of the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium in Uccle (Longitude 4.35°, Latitude 50.79°) were used for validation purposes. The individual model performance is assessed by an inter-comparison between the calculated and measured solar global radiation on the south-oriented surface tilted at 50.79° using statistical methods. The relative performance of the different models under different sky conditions has been studied. Comparison of the statistical errors between the different radiation models in function of the clearness index shows that some models perform better under one type of sky condition. Putting together different models acting under different sky conditions can lead to a diminution of the statistical error between global measured solar radiation and global estimated solar radiation. As models described in this paper have been developed for hourly data inputs, statistical error indexes are minimum for hourly data and increase for 10 minutes and one day frequency data.

  4. Empirical models for the estimation of global solar radiation with sunshine hours on horizontal surface in various cities of Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gadiwala, M.S.; Usman, A.; Akhtar, M.; Jamil, K.

    2013-01-01

    In developing countries like Pakistan the global solar radiation and its components is not available for all locations due to which there is a requirement of using different models for the estimation of global solar radiation that use climatological parameters of the locations. Only five long-period locations data of solar radiation data is available in Pakistan (Karachi, Quetta, Lahore, Multan and Peshawar). These locations almost encompass the different geographical features of Pakistan. For this reason in this study the Mean monthly global solar radiation has been estimated using empirical models of Angstrom, FAO, Glover Mc-Culloch, Sangeeta & Tiwari for the diversity of approach and use of climatic and geographical parameters. Empirical constants for these models have been estimated and the results obtained by these models have been tested statistically. The results show encouraging agreement between estimated and measured values. The outcome of these empirical models will assist the researchers working on solar energy estimation of the location having similar conditions

  5. Entropy budget of the earth,atmosphere and ocean system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAN Zijun; YAN Youfangand; QI Yiquan

    2004-01-01

    The energy budget in the system of the earth, atmosphere and ocean conforms to the first law of thermodynamics, namely the law of conservation of energy, and it is balanced when the system is in a steady-state condition. However, the entropy budget following the second law of thermodynamics is unbalanced. In this paper, we deduce the expressions of entropy flux and re-estimate the earth, atmosphere and ocean annual mean entropy budget with the updated climatologically global mean energy budget and the climatologically air-sea flux data. The calculated results show that the earth system obtains a net influx of negative entropy (-1179.3 mWm-2K-1) from its surroundings, and the atmosphere and the ocean systems obtain a net input of negative entropy at about -537.4 mWm-2K-1 and -555.6 mWm-2K-1, respectively. Calculations of the entropy budget can provide some guidance for further understanding the spatial-temporal change of the local entropy flux, and the entropy production resulting from all kinds of irreversible processes inside these systems.

  6. Generation of common coefficients to estimate global solar radiation over different locations of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samanta, Suman; Patra, Pulak Kumar; Banerjee, Saon; Narsimhaiah, Lakshmi; Sarath Chandran, M. A.; Vijaya Kumar, P.; Bandyopadhyay, Sanjib

    2018-06-01

    In developing countries like India, global solar radiation (GSR) is measured at very few locations due to non-availability of radiation measuring instruments. To overcome the inadequacy of GSR measurements, scientists developed many empirical models to estimate location-wise GSR. In the present study, three simple forms of Angstrom equation [Angstrom-Prescott (A-P), Ogelman, and Bahel] were used to estimate GSR at six geographically and climatologically different locations across India with an objective to find out a set of common constants usable for whole country. Results showed that GSR values varied from 9.86 to 24.85 MJ m-2 day-1 for different stations. It was also observed that A-P model showed smaller errors than Ogelman and Bahel models. All the models well estimated GSR, as the 1:1 line between measured and estimated values showed Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values ≥ 0.81 for all locations. Measured data of GSR pooled over six selected locations was analyzed to obtain a new set of constants for A-P equation which can be applicable throughout the country. The set of constants (a = 0.29 and b = 0.40) was named as "One India One Constant (OIOC)," and the model was named as "MOIOC." Furthermore, the developed constants are validated statistically for another six locations of India and produce close estimation. High R 2 values (≥ 76%) along with low mean bias error (MBE) ranging from - 0.64 to 0.05 MJ m-2 day-1 revealed that the new constants are able to predict GSR with lesser percentage of error.

  7. Improving global fire carbon emissions estimates by combining moderate resolution burned area and active fire observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randerson, J. T.; Chen, Y.; Giglio, L.; Rogers, B. M.; van der Werf, G.

    2011-12-01

    In several important biomes, including croplands and tropical forests, many small fires exist that have sizes that are well below the detection limit for the current generation of burned area products derived from moderate resolution spectroradiometers. These fires likely have important effects on greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions and regional air quality. Here we developed an approach for combining 1km thermal anomalies (active fires; MOD14A2) and 500m burned area observations (MCD64A1) to estimate the prevalence of these fires and their likely contribution to burned area and carbon emissions. We first estimated active fires within and outside of 500m burn scars in 0.5 degree grid cells during 2001-2010 for which MCD64A1 burned area observations were available. For these two sets of active fires we then examined mean fire radiative power (FRP) and changes in enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from 16-day intervals immediately before and after each active fire observation. To estimate the burned area associated with sub-500m fires, we first applied burned area to active fire ratios derived solely from within burned area perimeters to active fires outside of burn perimeters. In a second step, we further modified our sub-500m burned area estimates using EVI changes from active fires outside and within of burned areas (after subtracting EVI changes derived from control regions). We found that in northern and southern Africa savanna regions and in Central and South America dry forest regions, the number of active fires outside of MCD64A1 burned areas increased considerably towards the end of the fire season. EVI changes for active fires outside of burn perimeters were, on average, considerably smaller than EVI changes associated with active fires inside burn scars, providing evidence for burn scars that were substantially smaller than the 25 ha area of a single 500m pixel. FRP estimates also were lower for active fires outside of burn perimeters. In our

  8. Budgeting for School Media Centers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drott, M. Carl

    1978-01-01

    Describes various forms of budgets and discusses concepts in budgeting useful to supervisors of school media centers: line item budgets, capital budgets, creating budgets, the budget calendar, innovations, PPBS (Planning, Programing, Budgeting System), zero-based budgeting, cost-benefit analysis, benefits, benefit guidelines, and budgeting for the…

  9. Estimating a planetary magnetic field with time-dependent global MHD simulations using an adjoint approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Nabert

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The interaction of the solar wind with a planetary magnetic field causes electrical currents that modify the magnetic field distribution around the planet. We present an approach to estimating the planetary magnetic field from in situ spacecraft data using a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD simulation approach. The method is developed with respect to the upcoming BepiColombo mission to planet Mercury aimed at determining the planet's magnetic field and its interior electrical conductivity distribution. In contrast to the widely used empirical models, global MHD simulations allow the calculation of the strongly time-dependent interaction process of the solar wind with the planet. As a first approach, we use a simple MHD simulation code that includes time-dependent solar wind and magnetic field parameters. The planetary parameters are estimated by minimizing the misfit of spacecraft data and simulation results with a gradient-based optimization. As the calculation of gradients with respect to many parameters is usually very time-consuming, we investigate the application of an adjoint MHD model. This adjoint MHD model is generated by an automatic differentiation tool to compute the gradients efficiently. The computational cost for determining the gradient with an adjoint approach is nearly independent of the number of parameters. Our method is validated by application to THEMIS (Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms magnetosheath data to estimate Earth's dipole moment.

  10. Uncertainty analysis in estimating Japanese ingestion of global fallout Cs-137 using health risk evaluation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimada, Yoko; Morisawa, Shinsuke

    1998-01-01

    Most of model estimation of the environmental contamination includes some uncertainty associated with the parameter uncertainty in the model. In this study, the uncertainty was analyzed in a model for evaluating the ingestion of radionuclide caused by the long-term global low-level radioactive contamination by using various uncertainty analysis methods: the percentile estimate, the robustness analysis and the fuzzy estimate. The model is mainly composed of five sub-models, which include their own uncertainty; we also analyzed the uncertainty. The major findings obtained in this study include that the possibility of the discrepancy between predicted value by the model simulation and the observed data is less than 10%; the uncertainty of the predicted value is higher before 1950 and after 1980; the uncertainty of the predicted value can be reduced by decreasing the uncertainty of some environmental parameters in the model; the reliability of the model can definitively depend on the following environmental factors: direct foliar absorption coefficient, transfer factor of radionuclide from stratosphere down to troposphere, residual rate by food processing and cooking, transfer factor of radionuclide in ocean and sedimentation in ocean. (author)

  11. An artificial neural network ensemble model for estimating global solar radiation from Meteosat satellite images

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linares-Rodriguez, Alvaro; Ruiz-Arias, José Antonio; Pozo-Vazquez, David; Tovar-Pescador, Joaquin

    2013-01-01

    An optimized artificial neural network ensemble model is built to estimate daily global solar radiation over large areas. The model uses clear-sky estimates and satellite images as input variables. Unlike most studies using satellite imagery based on visible channels, our model also exploits all information within infrared channels of the Meteosat 9 satellite. A genetic algorithm is used to optimize selection of model inputs, for which twelve are selected – eleven 3-km Meteosat 9 channels and one clear-sky term. The model is validated in Andalusia (Spain) from January 2008 through December 2008. Measured data from 83 stations across the region are used, 65 for training and 18 independent ones for testing the model. At the latter stations, the ensemble model yields an overall root mean square error of 6.74% and correlation coefficient of 99%; the generated estimates are relatively accurate and errors spatially uniform. The model yields reliable results even on cloudy days, improving on current models based on satellite imagery. - Highlights: • Daily solar radiation data are generated using an artificial neural network ensemble. • Eleven Meteosat channels observations and a clear sky term are used as model inputs. • Model exploits all information within infrared Meteosat channels. • Measured data for a year from 83 ground stations are used. • The proposed approach has better performance than existing models on daily basis

  12. Inverse modelling estimates of N2O surface emissions and stratospheric losses using a global dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, R. L.; Bousquet, P.; Chevallier, F.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Vermeulen, A. T.; Aalto, T.; Haszpra, L.; Meinhardt, F.; O'Doherty, S.; Moncrieff, J. B.; Popa, M.; Steinbacher, M.; Jordan, A.; Schuck, T. J.; Brenninkmeijer, C. A.; Wofsy, S. C.; Kort, E. A.

    2010-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) levels have been steadily increasing in the atmosphere over the past few decades at a rate of approximately 0.3% per year. This trend is of major concern as N2O is both a long-lived Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and an Ozone Depleting Substance (ODS), as it is a precursor of NO and NO2, which catalytically destroy ozone in the stratosphere. Recently, N2O emissions have been recognised as the most important ODS emissions and are now of greater importance than emissions of CFC's. The growth in atmospheric N2O is predominantly due to the enhancement of surface emissions by human activities. Most notably, the intensification and proliferation of agriculture since the mid-19th century, which has been accompanied by the increased input of reactive nitrogen to soils and has resulted in significant perturbations to the natural N-cycle and emissions of N2O. There exist two approaches for estimating N2O emissions, the so-called 'bottom-up' and 'top-down' approaches. Top-down approaches, based on the inversion of atmospheric measurements, require an estimate of the loss of N2O via photolysis and oxidation in the stratosphere. Uncertainties in the loss magnitude contribute uncertainties of 15 to 20% to the global annual surface emissions, complicating direct comparisons between bottom-up and top-down estimates. In this study, we present a novel inversion framework for the simultaneous optimization of N2O surface emissions and the magnitude of the loss, which avoids errors in the emissions due to incorrect assumptions about the lifetime of N2O. We use a Bayesian inversion with a variational formulation (based on 4D-Var) in order to handle very large datasets. N2O fluxes are retrieved at 4-weekly resolution over a global domain with a spatial resolution of 3.75° x 2.5° longitude by latitude. The efficacy of the simultaneous optimization of emissions and losses is tested using a global synthetic dataset, which mimics the available atmospheric data. Lastly, using real

  13. Are sea-level-rise trends along the coasts of the north Indian Ocean consistent with global estimates?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Shankar, D.

    yielded sea-level-rise estimates between 1.06–1.75 mm/ yrear-1 , with a regional average of 1.29 mm yr-1, when corrected for global isostatic adjustment (GIA) using model data, with a regional average of 1.29 mm-1.. These estimates are consistent...

  14. Aetiology-Specific Estimates of the Global and Regional Incidence and Mortality of Diarrhoeal Diseases Commonly Transmitted through Food

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pires, Sara Monteiro; Fischer-Walker, Christa L; Lanata, Claudio F

    2015-01-01

    Diarrhoeal diseases are major contributors to the global burden of disease, particularly in children. However, comprehensive estimates of the incidence and mortality due to specific aetiologies of diarrhoeal diseases are not available. The objective of this study is to provide estimates of the gl...

  15. A New Global LAI Product and Its Use for Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, J. M.; Liu, R.; Ju, W.; Liu, Y.

    2014-12-01

    For improving the estimation of the spatio-temporal dynamics of the terrestrial carbon cycle, a new time series of the leaf area index (LAI) is generated for the global land surface at 8 km resolution from 1981 to 2012 by combining AVHRR and MODIS satellite data. This product differs from existing LAI products in the following two aspects: (1) the non-random spatial distribution of leaves with the canopy is considered, and (2) the seasonal variation of the vegetation background is included. The non-randomness of the leaf spatial distribution in the canopy is considered using the second vegetation structural parameter named clumping index (CI), which quantifies the deviation of the leaf spatial distribution from the random case. Using the MODIS Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function product, a global map of CI is produced at 500 m resolution. In our LAI algorithm, CI is used to convert the effective LAI obtained from mono-angle remote sensing into the true LAI, otherwise LAI would be considerably underestimated. The vegetation background is soil in crop, grass and shrub but includes soil, grass, moss, and litter in forests. Through processing a large volume of MISR data from 2000 to 2010, monthly red and near-infrared reflectances of the vegetation background is mapped globally at 1 km resolution. This new LAI product has been validated extensively using ground-based LAI measurements distributed globally. In carbon cycle modeling, the use of CI in addition to LAI allows for accurate separation of sunlit and shaded leaves as an important step in terrestrial photosynthesis and respiration modeling. Carbon flux measurements over 100 sites over the globe are used to validate an ecosystem model named Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS). The validated model is run globally at 8 km resolution for the period from 1981 to 2012 using the LAI product and other spatial datasets. The modeled results suggest that changes in vegetation structure as quantified

  16. Estimate of the global-scale joule heating rates in the thermosphere due to time mean currents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roble, R.G.; Matsushita, S.

    1975-01-01

    An estimate of the global-scale joule heating rates in the thermosphere is made based on derived global equivalent overhead electric current systems in the dynamo region during geomagnetically quiet and disturbed periods. The equivalent total electric field distribution is calculated from Ohm's law. The global-scale joule heating rates are calculated for various monthly average periods in 1965. The calculated joule heating rates maximize at high latitudes in the early evening and postmidnight sectors. During geomagnetically quiet times the daytime joule heating rates are considerably lower than heating by solar EUV radiation. However, during geomagnetically disturbed periods the estimated joule heating rates increase by an order of magnitude and can locally exceed the solar EUV heating rates. The results show that joule heating is an important and at times the dominant energy source at high latitudes. However, the global mean joule heating rates calculated near solar minimum are generally small compared to the global mean solar EUV heating rates. (auth)

  17. Automated Budget System -

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — The Automated Budget System (ABS) automates management and planning of the Mike Monroney Aeronautical Center (MMAC) budget by providing enhanced capability to plan,...

  18. Economics in "Global Health 2035": a sensitivity analysis of the value of a life year estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Angela Y; Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K; Resch, Stephen C

    2017-06-01

    In "Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation," The Lancet Commission on Investing in Health (CIH) adds the value of increased life expectancy to the value of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) when assessing national well-being. To value changes in life expectancy, the CIH relies on several strong assumptions to bridge gaps in the empirical research. It finds that the value of a life year (VLY) averages 2.3 times GDP per capita for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) assuming the changes in life expectancy they experienced from 2000 to 2011 are permanent. The CIH VLY estimate is based on a specific shift in population life expectancy and includes a 50 percent reduction for children ages 0 through 4. We investigate the sensitivity of this estimate to the underlying assumptions, including the effects of income, age, and life expectancy, and the sequencing of the calculations. We find that reasonable alternative assumptions regarding the effects of income, age, and life expectancy may reduce the VLY estimates to 0.2 to 2.1 times GDP per capita for LMICs. Removing the reduction for young children increases the VLY, while reversing the sequencing of the calculations reduces the VLY. Because the VLY is sensitive to the underlying assumptions, analysts interested in applying this approach elsewhere must tailor the estimates to the impacts of the intervention and the characteristics of the affected population. Analysts should test the sensitivity of their conclusions to reasonable alternative assumptions. More work is needed to investigate options for improving the approach.

  19. An emperor penguin population estimate: the first global, synoptic survey of a species from space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fretwell, Peter T; Larue, Michelle A; Morin, Paul; Kooyman, Gerald L; Wienecke, Barbara; Ratcliffe, Norman; Fox, Adrian J; Fleming, Andrew H; Porter, Claire; Trathan, Phil N

    2012-01-01

    Our aim was to estimate the population of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes fosteri) using a single synoptic survey. We examined the whole continental coastline of Antarctica using a combination of medium resolution and Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery to identify emperor penguin colony locations. Where colonies were identified, VHR imagery was obtained in the 2009 breeding season. The remotely-sensed images were then analysed using a supervised classification method to separate penguins from snow, shadow and guano. Actual counts of penguins from eleven ground truthing sites were used to convert these classified areas into numbers of penguins using a robust regression algorithm.We found four new colonies and confirmed the location of three previously suspected sites giving a total number of emperor penguin breeding colonies of 46. We estimated the breeding population of emperor penguins at each colony during 2009 and provide a population estimate of ~238,000 breeding pairs (compared with the last previously published count of 135,000-175,000 pairs). Based on published values of the relationship between breeders and non-breeders, this translates to a total population of ~595,000 adult birds.There is a growing consensus in the literature that global and regional emperor penguin populations will be affected by changing climate, a driver thought to be critical to their future survival. However, a complete understanding is severely limited by the lack of detailed knowledge about much of their ecology, and importantly a poor understanding of their total breeding population. To address the second of these issues, our work now provides a comprehensive estimate of the total breeding population that can be used in future population models and will provide a baseline for long-term research.

  20. Estimating Fallout Building Attributes from Architectural Features and Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Building Descriptions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dillon, Michael B. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Kane, Staci R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-03-01

    A nuclear explosion has the potential to injure or kill tens to hundreds of thousands (or more) of people through exposure to fallout (external gamma) radiation. Existing buildings can protect their occupants (reducing fallout radiation exposures) by placing material and distance between fallout particles and individuals indoors. Prior efforts have determined an initial set of building attributes suitable to reasonably assess a given building’s protection against fallout radiation. The current work provides methods to determine the quantitative values for these attributes from (a) common architectural features and data and (b) buildings described using the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) taxonomy. These methods will be used to improve estimates of fallout protection for operational US Department of Defense (DoD) and US Department of Energy (DOE) consequence assessment models.

  1. Comparison of modeling approaches for carbon partitioning: Impact on estimates of global net primary production and equilibrium biomass of woody vegetation from MODIS GPP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeshi Ise; Creighton M. Litton; Christian P. Giardina; Akihiko Ito

    2010-01-01

    Partitioning of gross primary production (GPP) to aboveground versus belowground, to growth versus respiration, and to short versus long�]lived tissues exerts a strong influence on ecosystem structure and function, with potentially large implications for the global carbon budget. A recent meta-analysis of forest ecosystems suggests that carbon partitioning...

  2. New horizontal global solar radiation estimation models for Turkey based on robust coplot supported genetic programming technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demirhan, Haydar; Kayhan Atilgan, Yasemin

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Precise horizontal global solar radiation estimation models are proposed for Turkey. • Genetic programming technique is used to construct the models. • Robust coplot analysis is applied to reduce the impact of outlier observations. • Better estimation and prediction properties are observed for the models. - Abstract: Renewable energy sources have been attracting more and more attention of researchers due to the diminishing and harmful nature of fossil energy sources. Because of the importance of solar energy as a renewable energy source, an accurate determination of significant covariates and their relationships with the amount of global solar radiation reaching the Earth is a critical research problem. There are numerous meteorological and terrestrial covariates that can be used in the analysis of horizontal global solar radiation. Some of these covariates are highly correlated with each other. It is possible to find a large variety of linear or non-linear models to explain the amount of horizontal global solar radiation. However, models that explain the amount of global solar radiation with the smallest set of covariates should be obtained. In this study, use of the robust coplot technique to reduce the number of covariates before going forward with advanced modelling techniques is considered. After reducing the dimensionality of model space, yearly and monthly mean daily horizontal global solar radiation estimation models for Turkey are built by using the genetic programming technique. It is observed that application of robust coplot analysis is helpful for building precise models that explain the amount of global solar radiation with the minimum number of covariates without suffering from outlier observations and the multicollinearity problem. Consequently, over a dataset of Turkey, precise yearly and monthly mean daily global solar radiation estimation models are introduced using the model spaces obtained by robust coplot technique and

  3. Estimating Daily Global Evapotranspiration Using Penman–Monteith Equation and Remotely Sensed Land Surface Temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roozbeh Raoufi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Daily evapotranspiration (ET is modeled globally for the period 2000–2013 based on the Penman–Monteith equation with radiation and vapor pressures derived using remotely sensed Land Surface Temperature (LST from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS on the Aqua and Terra satellites. The ET for a given land area is based on four surface conditions: wet/dry and vegetated/non-vegetated. For each, the ET resistance terms are based on land cover, leaf area index (LAI and literature values. The vegetated/non-vegetated fractions of the land surface are estimated using land cover, LAI, a simplified version of the Beer–Lambert law for describing light transition through vegetation and newly derived light extension coefficients for each MODIS land cover type. The wet/dry fractions of the land surface are nonlinear functions of LST derived humidity calibrated using in-situ ET measurements. Results are compared to in-situ measurements (average of the root mean squared errors and mean absolute errors for 39 sites are 0.81 mm day−1 and 0.59 mm day−1, respectively and the MODIS ET product, MOD16, (mean bias during 2001–2013 is −0.2 mm day−1. Although the mean global difference between MOD16 and ET estimates is only 0.2 mm day−1, local temperature derived vapor pressures are the likely contributor to differences, especially in energy and water limited regions. The intended application for the presented model is simulating ET based on long-term climate forecasts (e.g., using only minimum, maximum and mean daily or monthly temperatures.

  4. Muon g-2 Estimates. Can One Trust Effective Lagrangians and Global Fits?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benayoun, M.; DelBuono, L.

    2015-07-01

    Previous studies have shown that the Hidden Local Symmetry (HLS) Model, supplied with appropriate symmetry breaking mechanisms, provides an Effective Lagrangian (BHLS) which encompasses a large number of processes within a unified framework; a global fit procedure allows for a simultaneous description of the e + e - annihilation into the 6 final states - π + π - , π 0 γ, ηγ, π + π - π 0 , K + K - , K L K S - and includes the dipion spectrum in the τ decay and some more light meson decay partial widths. The contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment a th μ of these annihilation channels over the range of validity of the HLS model (up to 1.05 GeV) is found much improved compared to its partner derived from integrating the measured spectra directly. However, most spectra for the process e + e - → π + π - undergo overall scale uncertainties which dominate the other sources, and one may suspect some bias in the dipion contribution to a th μ . However, an iterated fit algorithm, shown to lead to unbiased results by a Monte Carlo study, is defined and applied succesfully to the e + e - → π + π - data samples from CMD2, SND, KLOE (including the latest sample) and BaBar. The iterated fit solution is shown to be further improved and leads to a value for a μ different from aexp above the 4σ level. The contribution of the π + π - intermediate state up to 1.05 GeV to a μ derived from the iterated fit benefits from an uncertainty about 3 times smaller than the corresponding usual estimate. Therefore, global fit techniques are shown to work and lead to improved unbiased results. The main issue raised in this study and the kind of solution proposed may be of concern for other data driven methods when the data samples are dominated by global normalization uncertainties.

  5. Towards continuous global measurements and optimal emission estimates of NF3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, T.; Muhle, J.; Salameh, P.; Harth, C.; Ivy, D. J.; Weiss, R. F.

    2011-12-01

    We present an analytical method for the continuous in situ measurement of nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) - an anthropogenic gas with a global warming potential of ~16800 over a 100 year time horizon. NF3 is not included in national reporting emissions inventories under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). However, it is a rapidly emerging greenhouse gas due to emission from a growing number of manufacturing facilities with increasing output and modern end-use applications, namely in microcircuit etching, and in production of flat panel displays and thin-film photovoltaic cells. Despite success in measuring the most volatile long lived halogenated species such as CF4, the Medusa preconcentration GC/MS system of Miller et al. (2008) is unable to detect NF3 under remote operation. Using altered techniques of gas separation and chromatography after initial preconcentration, we are now able to make continuous atmospheric measurements of NF3 with average precisions NF3 produced. Emission factors are shown to have reduced over the last decade; however, rising production and end-use have caused the average global atmospheric concentration to double between 2005 and 2011 i.e. half the atmospheric NF3 present today originates from emissions after 2005. Finally we show the first continuous in situ measurements from La Jolla, California, illustrating how global deployment of our technique could improve the temporal and spatial scale of NF3 'top-down' emission estimates over the coming years. These measurements will be important for independent verification of emissions should NF3 be regulated under a new climate treaty.

  6. Estimating the global conservation status of more than 15,000 Amazonian tree species

    Science.gov (United States)

    ter Steege, Hans; Pitman, Nigel C. A.; Killeen, Timothy J.; Laurance, William F.; Peres, Carlos A.; Guevara, Juan Ernesto; Salomão, Rafael P.; Castilho, Carolina V.; Amaral, Iêda Leão; de Almeida Matos, Francisca Dionízia; de Souza Coelho, Luiz; Magnusson, William E.; Phillips, Oliver L.; de Andrade Lima Filho, Diogenes; de Jesus Veiga Carim, Marcelo; Irume, Mariana Victória; Martins, Maria Pires; Molino, Jean-François; Sabatier, Daniel; Wittmann, Florian; López, Dairon Cárdenas; da Silva Guimarães, José Renan; Mendoza, Abel Monteagudo; Vargas, Percy Núñez; Manzatto, Angelo Gilberto; Reis, Neidiane Farias Costa; Terborgh, John; Casula, Katia Regina; Montero, Juan Carlos; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Honorio Coronado, Euridice N.; Montoya, Alvaro Javier Duque; Zartman, Charles Eugene; Mostacedo, Bonifacio; Vasquez, Rodolfo; Assis, Rafael L.; Medeiros, Marcelo Brilhante; Simon, Marcelo Fragomeni; Andrade, Ana; Camargo, José Luís; Laurance, Susan G. W.; Nascimento, Henrique Eduardo Mendonça; Marimon, Beatriz S.; Marimon, Ben-Hur; Costa, Flávia; Targhetta, Natalia; Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães; Brienen, Roel; Castellanos, Hernán; Duivenvoorden, Joost F.; Mogollón, Hugo F.; Piedade, Maria Teresa Fernandez; Aymard C., Gerardo A.; Comiskey, James A.; Damasco, Gabriel; Dávila, Nállarett; García-Villacorta, Roosevelt; Diaz, Pablo Roberto Stevenson; Vincentini, Alberto; Emilio, Thaise; Levis, Carolina; Schietti, Juliana; Souza, Priscila; Alonso, Alfonso; Dallmeier, Francisco; Ferreira, Leandro Valle; Neill, David; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Arroyo, Luzmila; Carvalho, Fernanda Antunes; Souza, Fernanda Coelho; do Amaral, Dário Dantas; Gribel, Rogerio; Luize, Bruno Garcia; Pansonato, Marcelo Petrati; Venticinque, Eduardo; Fine, Paul; Toledo, Marisol; Baraloto, Chris; Cerón, Carlos; Engel, Julien; Henkel, Terry W.; Jimenez, Eliana M.; Maas, Paul; Mora, Maria Cristina Peñuela; Petronelli, Pascal; Revilla, Juan David Cardenas; Silveira, Marcos; Stropp, Juliana; Thomas-Caesar, Raquel; Baker, Tim R.; Daly, Doug; Paredes, Marcos Ríos; da Silva, Naara Ferreira; Fuentes, Alfredo; Jørgensen, Peter Møller; Schöngart, Jochen; Silman, Miles R.; Arboleda, Nicolás Castaño; Cintra, Bruno Barçante Ladvocat; Valverde, Fernando Cornejo; Di Fiore, Anthony; Phillips, Juan Fernando; van Andel, Tinde R.; von Hildebrand, Patricio; Barbosa, Edelcilio Marques; de Matos Bonates, Luiz Carlos; de Castro, Deborah; de Sousa Farias, Emanuelle; Gonzales, Therany; Guillaumet, Jean-Louis; Hoffman, Bruce; Malhi, Yadvinder; de Andrade Miranda, Ires Paula; Prieto, Adriana; Rudas, Agustín; Ruschell, Ademir R.; Silva, Natalino; Vela, César I. A.; Vos, Vincent A.; Zent, Eglée L.; Zent, Stanford; Cano, Angela; Nascimento, Marcelo Trindade; Oliveira, Alexandre A.; Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma; Ramos, José Ferreira; Sierra, Rodrigo; Tirado, Milton; Medina, Maria Natalia Umaña; van der Heijden, Geertje; Torre, Emilio Vilanova; Vriesendorp, Corine; Wang, Ophelia; Young, Kenneth R.; Baider, Claudia; Balslev, Henrik; de Castro, Natalia; Farfan-Rios, William; Ferreira, Cid; Mendoza, Casimiro; Mesones, Italo; Torres-Lezama, Armando; Giraldo, Ligia Estela Urrego; Villarroel, Daniel; Zagt, Roderick; Alexiades, Miguel N.; Garcia-Cabrera, Karina; Hernandez, Lionel; Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau; Milliken, William; Cuenca, Walter Palacios; Pansini, Susamar; Pauletto, Daniela; Arevalo, Freddy Ramirez; Sampaio, Adeilza Felipe; Valderrama Sandoval, Elvis H.; Gamarra, Luis Valenzuela

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of extinction risk for Amazonian plant and animal species are rare and not often incorporated into land-use policy and conservation planning. We overlay spatial distribution models with historical and projected deforestation to show that at least 36% and up to 57% of all Amazonian tree species are likely to qualify as globally threatened under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria. If confirmed, these results would increase the number of threatened plant species on Earth by 22%. We show that the trends observed in Amazonia apply to trees throughout the tropics, and we predict that most of the world’s >40,000 tropical tree species now qualify as globally threatened. A gap analysis suggests that existing Amazonian protected areas and indigenous territories will protect viable populations of most threatened species if these areas suffer no further degradation, highlighting the key roles that protected areas, indigenous peoples, and improved governance can play in preventing large-scale extinctions in the tropics in this century. PMID:26702442

  7. An integrated approach for estimating global glacio isostatic adjustment, land ice, hydrology and ocean mass trends within a complete coupled Earth system framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumacher, M.; Bamber, J. L.; Martin, A.

    2016-12-01

    Future sea level rise (SLR) is one of the most serious consequences of climate change. Therefore, understanding the drivers of past sea level change is crucial for improving predictions. SLR integrates many Earth system components including oceans, land ice, terrestrial water storage, as well as solid Earth effects. Traditionally, each component have been tackled separately, which has often lead to inconsistencies between discipline-specific estimates of each part of the sea level budget. To address these issues, the European Research Council has funded a five year project aimed at producing a physically-based, data-driven solution for the complete coupled land-ocean-solid Earth system that is consistent with the full suite of observations, prior knowledge and fundamental geophysical constraints. The project is called "GlobalMass" and based at University of Bristol. Observed mass movement from the GRACE mission plus vertical land motion from a global network of permanent GPS stations will be utilized in a data-driven approach to estimate glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) without introducing any assumptions about the Earth structure or ice loading history. A Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) will be used as the framework to combine the satellite and in-situ observations alongside prior information that incorporates the physics of the coupled system such as conservation of mass and characteristic length scales of different processes in both space and time. The BHM is used to implement a simultaneous solution at a global scale. It will produce a consistent partitioning of the integrated SLR signal into its steric (thermal) and barystatic (mass) component for the satellite era. The latter component is induced by hydrological mass trends and melting of land ice. The BHM was developed and tested on Antarctica, where it has been used to separate surface, ice dynamic and GIA signals simultaneously. We illustrate the approach and concepts with examples from this test case

  8. A revised global ozone dry deposition estimate based on a new two-layer parameterisation for air-sea exchange and the multi-year MACC composition reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luhar, Ashok K.; Woodhouse, Matthew T.; Galbally, Ian E.

    2018-03-01

    Dry deposition at the Earth's surface is an important sink of atmospheric ozone. Currently, dry deposition of ozone to the ocean surface in atmospheric chemistry models has the largest uncertainty compared to deposition to other surface types, with implications for global tropospheric ozone budget and associated radiative forcing. Most global models assume that the dominant term of surface resistance in the parameterisation of ozone dry deposition velocity at the oceanic surface is constant. There have been recent mechanistic parameterisations for air-sea exchange that account for the simultaneous waterside processes of ozone solubility, molecular diffusion, turbulent transfer, and first-order chemical reaction of ozone with dissolved iodide and other compounds, but there are questions about their performance and consistency. We present a new two-layer parameterisation scheme for the oceanic surface resistance by making the following realistic assumptions: (a) the thickness of the top water layer is of the order of a reaction-diffusion length scale (a few micrometres) within which ozone loss is dominated by chemical reaction and the influence of waterside turbulent transfer is negligible; (b) in the water layer below, both chemical reaction and waterside turbulent transfer act together and are accounted for; and (c) chemical reactivity is present through the depth of the oceanic mixing layer. The new parameterisation has been evaluated against dry deposition velocities from recent open-ocean measurements. It is found that the inclusion of only the aqueous iodide-ozone reaction satisfactorily describes the measurements. In order to better quantify the global dry deposition loss and its interannual variability, modelled 3-hourly ozone deposition velocities are combined with the 3-hourly MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) reanalysis ozone for the years 2003-2012. The resulting ozone dry deposition is found to be 98.4 ± 30.0 Tg O3 yr-1 for the ocean

  9. Carbon Dioxide Evasion from Boreal Lakes: Drivers, Variability and Revised Global Estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastie, A. T.; Lauerwald, R.; Weyhenmeyer, G. A.; Sobek, S.; Verpoorter, C.; Regnier, P. A. G.

    2016-12-01

    Carbon dioxide evasion (FCO2) from lakes and reservoirs is established as an important component of the global carbon (C) cycle, a fact reflected by the inclusion of these waterbodies in the most recent IPCC assessment report. In this study we developed a statistical model driven by environmental geodata, to predict CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) in boreal lakes, and to create the first high resolution map (0.5°) of boreal (50°- 70°) lake pCO2. The resulting map of pCO2 was combined with lake area (lakes >0.01km2) from the recently developed GLOWABO database (Verpoorter et al., 2014) and estimates of gas transfer velocity k, to produce the first high resolution map of boreal lake FCO2. Before training our model, the geodata as well as approximately 27,000 samples of `open water' (excluding periods of ice cover) pCO2 from the boreal region, were gridded at 0.5° resolution and log transformed where necessary. A multilinear regression was used to derive a prediction equation for log10 pCO2 as a function of log10 lake area, net primary productivity (NPP), precipitation, wind speed and soil pH (r2= 0.66), and then applied in ArcGIS to build the map of pCO2. After validation, the map of boreal lake pCO2 was used to derive a map of boreal lake FCO2. For the boreal region we estimate an average, lake area weighted, pCO2 of 930 μatm and FCO2 of 170 (121-243) Tg C yr-1. Our estimate of FCO2 will soon be updated with the incorporation of the smallest lakes (<0.01km2). Despite the current exclusion of the smallest lakes, our estimate is higher than the highest previous estimate of approximately 110 Tg C yr-1 (Aufdenkampe et al, 2011). Moreover, our empirical approach driven by environmental geodata can be used as the basis for estimating future FCO2 from boreal lakes, and their sensitivity to climate change.

  10. Satellite-based Estimates of Ambient Air Pollution and Global Variations in Childhood Asthma Prevalence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, H. Ross; Butland, Barbara K.; Donkelaar, Aaron Matthew Van; Brauer, Michael; Strachan, David P.; Clayton, Tadd; van Dingenen, Rita; Amann, Marcus; Brunekreef, Bert; Cohen, Aaron; hide

    2012-01-01

    Background: The effect of ambient air pollution on global variations and trends in asthma prevalence is unclear. Objectives: Our goal was to investigate community-level associations between asthma prevalence data from the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) and satellite-based estimates of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and modelled estimates of ozone. Methods: We assigned satellite-based estimates of PM2.5 and NO2 at a spatial resolution of 0.1deg × 0.1deg and modeled estimates of ozone at a resolution of 1deg × 1deg to 183 ISAAC centers. We used center-level prevalence of severe asthma as the outcome and multilevel models to adjust for gross national income (GNI) and center- and country-level sex, climate, and population density. We examined associations (adjusting for GNI) between air pollution and asthma prevalence over time in centers with data from ISAAC Phase One (mid-1900s) and Phase Three (2001-2003). Results: For the 13- to 14-year age group (128 centers in 28 countries), the estimated average within-country change in center-level asthma prevalence per 100 children per 10% increase in center-level PM2.5 and NO2 was -0.043 [95% confidence interval (CI): -0.139, 0.053] and 0.017 (95% CI: -0.030, 0.064) respectively. For ozone the estimated change in prevalence per parts per billion by volume was -0.116 (95% CI: -0.234, 0.001). Equivalent results for the 6- to 7-year age group (83 centers in 20 countries), though slightly different, were not significantly positive. For the 13- to 14-year age group, change in center-level asthma prevalence over time per 100 children per 10% increase in PM2.5 from Phase One to Phase Three was -0.139 (95% CI: -0.347, 0.068). The corresponding association with ozone (per ppbV) was -0.171 (95% CI: -0.275, -0.067). Conclusion: In contrast to reports from within-community studies of individuals exposed to traffic pollution, we did not find

  11. Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, Haidong; Wolock, Tim M.; Carter, Austin; Nguyen, Grant; Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Hay, Simon I.; Mills, Edward J.; Trickey, Adam; Msemburi, William; Coates, Matthew M.; Mooney, Meghan D.; Fraser, Maya S.; Sligar, Amber; Salomon, Joshua; Larson, Heidi J.; Friedman, Joseph; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbas, Kaja M.; Abd El Razek, Mohamed Magdy; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abdulle, Abdishakur M.; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E.; Abyu, Gebre Yitayih; Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi; Adelekan, Ademola Lukman; Adofo, Koranteng; Adou, Arsene Kouablan; Ajala, Oluremi N.; Akinyemiju, Tomi F.; Akseer, Nadia; Al Lami, Faris Hasan; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Noore K. M.; Alasfoor, Deena; Aldhahri, Saleh Fahed S.; Aldridge, Robert William; Alegretti, Miguel Angel; Aleman, Alicia V.; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Ali, Raghib; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Hoek, Hans W.

    Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral

  12. Optimal estimation of regional N2O emissions using a three-dimensional global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, J.; Golombek, A.; Prinn, R.

    2004-12-01

    In this study, we use the MATCH (Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry) model and Kalman filtering techniques to optimally estimate N2O emissions from seven source regions around the globe. The MATCH model was used with NCEP assimilated winds at T62 resolution (192 longitude by 94 latitude surface grid, and 28 vertical levels) from July 1st 1996 to December 31st 2000. The average concentrations of N2O in the lowest four layers of the model were then compared with the monthly mean observations from six national/global networks (AGAGE, CMDL (HATS), CMDL (CCGG), CSIRO, CSIR and NIES), at 48 surface sites. A 12-month-running-mean smoother was applied to both the model results and the observations, due to the fact that the model was not able to reproduce the very small observed seasonal variations. The Kalman filter was then used to solve for the time-averaged regional emissions of N2O for January 1st 1997 to June 30th 2000. The inversions assume that the model stratospheric destruction rates, which lead to a global N2O lifetime of 130 years, are correct. It also assumes normalized emission spatial distributions from each region based on previous studies. We conclude that the global N2O emission flux is about 16.2 TgN/yr, with {34.9±1.7%} from South America and Africa, {34.6±1.5%} from South Asia, {13.9±1.5%} from China/Japan/South East Asia, {8.0±1.9%} from all oceans, {6.4±1.1%} from North America and North and West Asia, {2.6±0.4%} from Europe, and {0.9±0.7%} from New Zealand and Australia. The errors here include the measurement standard deviation, calibration differences among the six groups, grid volume/measurement site mis-match errors estimated from the model, and a procedure to account approximately for the modeling errors.

  13. A simple and efficient algorithm to estimate daily global solar radiation from geostationary satellite data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Ning; Qin, Jun; Yang, Kun; Sun, Jiulin

    2011-01-01

    Surface global solar radiation (GSR) is the primary renewable energy in nature. Geostationary satellite data are used to map GSR in many inversion algorithms in which ground GSR measurements merely serve to validate the satellite retrievals. In this study, a simple algorithm with artificial neural network (ANN) modeling is proposed to explore the non-linear physical relationship between ground daily GSR measurements and Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) all-channel observations in an effort to fully exploit information contained in both data sets. Singular value decomposition is implemented to extract the principal signals from satellite data and a novel method is applied to enhance ANN performance at high altitude. A three-layer feed-forward ANN model is trained with one year of daily GSR measurements at ten ground sites. This trained ANN is then used to map continuous daily GSR for two years, and its performance is validated at all 83 ground sites in China. The evaluation result demonstrates that this algorithm can quickly and efficiently build the ANN model that estimates daily GSR from geostationary satellite data with good accuracy in both space and time. -- Highlights: → A simple and efficient algorithm to estimate GSR from geostationary satellite data. → ANN model fully exploits both the information from satellite and ground measurements. → Good performance of the ANN model is comparable to that of the classical models. → Surface elevation and infrared information enhance GSR inversion.

  14. Estimation of Radiative Efficiency of Chemicals with Potentially Significant Global Warming Potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betowski, Don; Bevington, Charles; Allison, Thomas C

    2016-01-19

    Halogenated chemical substances are used in a broad array of applications, and new chemical substances are continually being developed and introduced into commerce. While recent research has considerably increased our understanding of the global warming potentials (GWPs) of multiple individual chemical substances, this research inevitably lags behind the development of new chemical substances. There are currently over 200 substances known to have high GWP. Evaluation of schemes to estimate radiative efficiency (RE) based on computational chemistry are useful where no measured IR spectrum is available. This study assesses the reliability of values of RE calculated using computational chemistry techniques for 235 chemical substances against the best available values. Computed vibrational frequency data is used to estimate RE values using several Pinnock-type models, and reasonable agreement with reported values is found. Significant improvement is obtained thro