Piver, W T
1991-01-01
Increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can be directly related to global warming. In terms of human health, because a major cause of increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 is the increased combustion of fossil fuels, global warming also may result in increases in air pollutants, acid deposition, and exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To understand better the impacts of global warming phenomena on human health, this review emphasizes the proces...
Piver, W T
1991-12-01
Increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can be directly related to global warming. In terms of human health, because a major cause of increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 is the increased combustion of fossil fuels, global warming also may result in increases in air pollutants, acid deposition, and exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To understand better the impacts of global warming phenomena on human health, this review emphasizes the processes that are responsible for the greenhouse effect, air pollution, acid deposition, and increased exposure to UV radiation.
Global Change in the Upper Atmosphere
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Laštovička, Jan; Akmaev, R. A.; Beig, G.; Bremer, J.; Emmert, J. T.
2006-01-01
Roč. 314, č. 5803 (2006), s. 1253-1254 ISSN 0036-8075 R&D Projects: GA MŠk OC 091 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Global change * Upper Atmosphere * Ionosphere Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 30.028, year: 2006
Ozone, Climate, and Global Atmospheric Change.
Levine, Joel S.
1992-01-01
Presents an overview of global atmospheric problems relating to ozone depletion and global warming. Provides background information on the composition of the earth's atmosphere and origin of atmospheric ozone. Describes causes, effects, and evidence of ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect. A vignette provides a summary of a 1991 assessment of…
The biosphere as a driver of global atmospheric change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Levine, J.S.
1991-01-01
The effects of the biosphere on the evolution of atmospheric oxygen and ozone, and the consequences of that development for global atmospheric change, are discussed. Attention is given to the impact of oxygen and ozone on atmospheric photolysis rates, the effect of oxygen on the biogenic production of nitrous oxide and nitric oxide, and the effects of the evolution of atmospheric oxygen on fires and biomass burning. The influence of the latter on atmospheric processes, particularly the production of methane, carbon dioxide, and carbon monoxide, is considered. 41 refs
INTRODUCTION: Anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle
Allan, Richard P.; Liepert, Beate G.
2010-06-01
The atmospheric branch of the water cycle, although containing just a tiny fraction of the Earth's total water reserves, presents a crucial interface between the physical climate (such as large-scale rainfall patterns) and the ecosystems upon which human societies ultimately depend. Because of the central importance of water in the Earth system, the question of how the water cycle is changing, and how it may alter in future as a result of anthropogenic changes, present one of the greatest challenges of this century. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on Climate Change and Water (Bates et al 2008) highlighted the increasingly strong evidence of change in the global water cycle and associated environmental consequences. It is of critical importance to climate prediction and adaptation strategies that key processes in the atmospheric water cycle are precisely understood and determined, from evaporation at the surface of the ocean, transport by the atmosphere, condensation as cloud and eventual precipitation, and run-off through rivers following interaction with the land surface, sub-surface, ice, snow and vegetation. The purpose of this special focus issue of Environmental Research Letters on anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle is to consolidate the recent substantial advances in understanding past, present and future changes in the global water cycle through evidence built upon theoretical understanding, backed up by observations and borne out by climate model simulations. Thermodynamic rises in water vapour provide a central constraint, as discussed in a guest editorial by Bengtsson (2010). Theoretical implications of the Clausius-Clapeyron equation are presented by O'Gorman and Muller (2010) and with reference to a simple model (Sherwood 2010) while observed humidity changes confirm these anticipated responses at the land and ocean surface (Willett et al 2008). Rises in low-level moisture are thought to fuel an
Remote sensing for global change, climate change and atmosphere and ocean forecasting. Volume 1
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1992-01-01
This volume is separated in three sessions. First part is on remote sensing for global change (with global modelling, land cover change on global scale, ocean colour studies of marine biosphere, biological and hydrological interactions and large scale experiments). Second part is on remote sensing for climate change (with earth radiation and clouds, sea ice, global climate research programme). Third part is on remote sensing for atmosphere and ocean forecasting (with temperatures and humidity, winds, data assimilation, cloud imagery, sea surface temperature, ocean waves and topography). (A.B.). refs., figs., tabs
Divergent pheromone-mediated insect behaviour under global atmospheric change
Edward B. Mondor; Michelle N. Tremblay; Caroline S. Awmack; Richard L. Lindroth
2004-01-01
While the effects of global atmospheric changes on vegetation and resulting insect populations('bottom-up interactions') are being increasingly studied, how these gases modify interactions among insects and their natural enemies ('top-down interactions') is less clear. As natural enemy efficacy is governed largely by behavioural mechanisms, altered...
Emerging pattern of global change in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. Laštovička
2008-05-01
Full Text Available In the upper atmosphere, greenhouse gases produce a cooling effect, instead of a warming effect. Increases in greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to induce substantial changes in the mesosphere, thermosphere, and ionosphere, including a thermal contraction of these layers. In this article we construct for the first time a pattern of the observed long-term global change in the upper atmosphere, based on trend studies of various parameters. The picture we obtain is qualitative, and contains several gaps and a few discrepancies, but the overall pattern of observed long-term changes throughout the upper atmosphere is consistent with model predictions of the effect of greenhouse gas increases. Together with the large body of lower atmospheric trend research, our synthesis indicates that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are affecting the atmosphere at nearly all altitudes between ground and space.
Glacial-interglacial water cycle, global monsoon and atmospheric methane changes
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Guo, Zhengtang; Wu, Haibin [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Beijing (China); Zhou, Xin [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Beijing (China); University of Science and Technology of China, School of Earth and Space Sciences and Institute of Polar Environment, Hefei (China)
2012-09-15
The causes of atmospheric methane (CH{sub 4}) changes are still a major contention, in particular with regards to the relative contributions of glacial-interglacial cycles, monsoons in both hemispheres and the late Holocene human intervention. Here, we explore the CH{sub 4} signals in the Antarctic EPICA Dome C and Vostok ice records using the methods of timeseries analyses and correlate them with insolation and geological records to address these issues. The results parse out three distinct groups of CH{sub 4} signals attributable to different drivers. The first group ({proportional_to}80% variance), well tracking the marine {delta}{sup 18}O record, is attributable to glacial-interglacial modulation on the global water cycle with the effects shared by wetlands at all latitudes, from monsoonal and non-monsoonal regions in both hemispheres. The second group ({proportional_to}15% variance), centered at the {proportional_to}10-kyr semi-precession frequency, is linkable with insolation-driven tropical monsoon changes in both hemispheres. The third group ({proportional_to}5% variance), marked by millennial frequencies, is seemingly related with the combined effect of ice-volume and bi-hemispheric insolation changes at the precession bands. These results indicate that bi-hemispheric monsoon changes have been a constant driver of atmospheric CH{sub 4}. This mechanism also partially explains the Holocene CH{sub 4} reversal since {proportional_to}5 kyr BP besides the human intervention. In the light of these results, we propose that global monsoon can be regarded as a system consisting of two main integrated components, one primarily driven by the oscillations of Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in response to the low-latitude summer insolation changes, anti-phase between the two hemispheres (i.e. the ITCZ monsoon component); and another modulated by the glacial-interglacial cycles, mostly synchronous at the global scale (i.e. the glacial-interglacial monsoon
Atmospheric methane: Sources, sinks, and role in global change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Khalil, M.A.K.
1993-01-01
Atmospheric methane is thought to be the most important trace gas involved in man-made climate change. It may be second only to carbon dioxide in causing global warming. Methane affects also the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere by controlling tropospheric OH radicals and creating O 3 , and it affects the ozone layer in the stratosphere by contributing water vapor and removing chlorine atoms. In the long term, methane is a natural product of life on earth, reaching high concentrations during warm and biologically productive epochs. Yet the scientific understanding of atmospheric methane has evolved mostly during the past decade after it was shown that concentrations were rapidly rising. Because of the environmental importance of methane, North Atlantic Treaty Organization's Scientific and Environmental Affairs Division commissioned an Advanced Research Workshop. This book is the result of such a conference held during the week of 6 October 1991 at Timberline Lodge on Mount Hood near Portland, Oregon. (orig./KW)
The global atmospheric environment for the next generation
Dentener, F.; Stevenson, D.; Ellingsen, K.; Noije, van T.; Schultz, M.; Amann, M.; Atherton, C.; Bell, N.; Bergmann, D.; Bey, I.; Bouwman, L.; Butler, T.; Cofala, J.; Collins, B.; Drevet, J.; Doherty, R.; Eickhout, B.; Eskes, H.; Fiore, A.; Gauss, M.; Hauglustaine, D.; Horowitz, L.; Isaksen, I.S.A.; Josse, B.; Lawrence, M.; Krol, M.C.; Lamarque, J.F.; Montanaro, V.; Müller, J.F.; Peuch, V.H.; Pitari, G.; Pyle, J.; Rast, S.; Rodriguez, J.; Sanderson, M.; Savage, N.H.; Shindell, D.; Strahan, S.; Szopa, S.; Sudo, K.; Dingenen, van R.; Wild, O.; Zeng, G.
2006-01-01
Air quality, ecosystem exposure to nitrogen deposition, and climate change are intimately coupled problems: we assess changes in the global atmospheric environment between 2000 and 2030 using 26 state-of-the-art global atmospheric chemistry models and three different emissions scenarios. The first
Global Analysis of Climate Change Projection Effects on Atmospheric Rivers
Espinoza, Vicky; Waliser, Duane E.; Guan, Bin; Lavers, David A.; Ralph, F. Martin
2018-05-01
A uniform, global approach is used to quantify how atmospheric rivers (ARs) change between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 historical simulations and future projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 warming scenarios. The projections indicate that while there will be 10% fewer ARs in the future, the ARs will be 25% longer, 25% wider, and exhibit stronger integrated water vapor transports (IVTs) under RCP8.5. These changes result in pronounced increases in the frequency (IVT strength) of AR conditions under RCP8.5: 50% (25%) globally, 50% (20%) in the northern midlatitudes, and 60% (20%) in the southern midlatitudes. The models exhibit systematic low biases across the midlatitudes in replicating historical AR frequency ( 10%), zonal IVT ( 15%), and meridional IVT ( 25%), with sizable intermodel differences. A more detailed examination of six regions strongly impacted by ARs suggests that the western United States, northwestern Europe, and southwestern South America exhibit considerable intermodel differences in projected changes in ARs.
Atmospheric Chemistry in a Changing World
Brune, William H.
The world is changing,and the atmosphere's composition is changing with it. Human activity is responsible for much of this. Global population growth and migration to urban centers, extensive biomass burning, the spread of fertilizer-intensive agribusiness, globalization of business and industry, rising standards of living in the developing world, and increased energy use fuels atmospheric change. If current practices continue, atmospheric increases are likely for the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide; and for the chemically active gases nitric oxide, sulfur dioxide,and ammonia. Increases in global tropospheric ozone and aerosols are a distinct possibility.
Hameed, S.; Cess, R. D.; Hogan, J. S.
1980-01-01
Recent modeling of atmospheric chemical processes (Logan et al, 1978; Hameed et al, 1979) suggests that tropospheric ozone and methane might significantly increase in the future as the result of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO(x), and CH4 due to fossil fuel burning. Since O3 and CH4 are both greenhouse gases, increases in their concentrations could augment global warming due to larger future amounts of atmospheric CO2. To test the possible climatic impact of changes in tropospheric chemical composition, a zonal energy-balance climate model has been combined with a vertically averaged tropospheric chemical model. The latter model includes all relevant chemical reactions which affect species derived from H2O, O2, CH4, and NO(x). The climate model correspondingly incorporates changes in the infrared heating of the surface-troposphere system resulting from chemically induced changes in tropospheric ozone and methane. This coupled climate-chemical model indicates that global climate is sensitive to changes in emissions of CO, NO(x) and CH4, and that future increases in these emissions could augment global warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2.
The atmosphere: Global commons to protect
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Obasi, G.O.P.
1996-01-01
One of the most important greenhouse gases is CO 2 , whose concentration in the atmosphere has increased from 280 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to 358ppmv in 1994, giving a general increase of over 27 per cent since pre-industrial times. This increase has been attributed largely to fossil fuel combustion. Significant increases have also been observed in atmospheric concentrations of the other greenhouse gases, including methane, nitrous oxide and global tropospheric ozone. Concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide have, for example, grown by 145 per cent and 15 per cent respectively since pre-industrial times. Such increases have been linked to the rapid world population growth, which has resulted in increasing demands for energy, food, water, shelter and other basic needs. Computer models indicate that the continued accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could result in global climate change and global warming. As some uncertainties still exists in the model predictions, it may take a few more years to uniquely separate human-induced climate change signals from natural climate variability in global climate trends
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhou, Tianjun; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Yimin; Wang, Bin
2014-01-01
First book available on systematic evaluations of the performance of the global climate model FGOALS. Covers the whole field, ranging from the development to the applications of this climate system model. Provide an outlook for the future development of the FGOALS model system. Offers brief introduction about how to run FGOALS. Coupled climate system models are of central importance for climate studies. A new model known as FGOALS (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model), has been developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP, CAS), a first-tier national geophysical laboratory. It serves as a powerful tool, both for deepening our understanding of fundamental mechanisms of the climate system and for making decadal prediction and scenario projections of future climate change. ''Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community'' is the first book to offer systematic evaluations of this model's performance. It is comprehensive in scope, covering both developmental and application-oriented aspects of this climate system model. It also provides an outlook of future development of FGOALS and offers an overview of how to employ the model. It represents a valuable reference work for researchers and professionals working within the related areas of climate variability and change.
Space Observations for Global Change
Rasool, S. I.
1991-01-01
There is now compelling evidence that man's activities are changing both the composition of the atmospheric and the global landscape quite drastically. The consequences of these changes on the global climate of the 21st century is currently a hotly debated subject. Global models of a coupled Earth-ocean-atmosphere system are still very primitive and progress in this area appears largely data limited, specially over the global biosphere. A concerted effort on monitoring biospheric functions on scales from pixels to global and days to decades needs to be coordinated on an international scale in order to address the questions related to global change. An international program of space observations and ground research was described.
Monte Carlo climate change forecasts with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cubasch, U.; Santer, B.D.; Hegerl, G.; Hoeck, H.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Mikolajwicz, U.; Stoessel, A.; Voss, R.
1992-01-01
The Monte Carlo approach, which has increasingly been used during the last decade in the field of extended range weather forecasting, has been applied for climate change experiments. Four integrations with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model have been started from different initial conditions, but with the same greenhouse gas forcing according to the IPCC scenario A. All experiments have been run for a period of 50 years. The results indicate that the time evolution of the global mean warming depends strongly on the initial state of the climate system. It can vary between 6 and 31 years. The Monte Carlo approach delivers information about both the mean response and the statistical significance of the response. While the individual members of the ensemble show a considerable variation in the climate change pattern of temperature after 50 years, the ensemble mean climate change pattern closely resembles the pattern obtained in a 100 year integration and is, at least over most of the land areas, statistically significant. The ensemble averaged sea-level change due to thermal expansion is significant in the global mean and locally over wide regions of the Pacific. The hydrological cycle is also significantly enhanced in the global mean, but locally the changes in precipitation and soil moisture are masked by the variability of the experiments. (orig.)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zhou, Tianjun; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Yimin; Wang, Bin (eds.) [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, (China). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics
2014-04-01
First book available on systematic evaluations of the performance of the global climate model FGOALS. Covers the whole field, ranging from the development to the applications of this climate system model. Provide an outlook for the future development of the FGOALS model system. Offers brief introduction about how to run FGOALS. Coupled climate system models are of central importance for climate studies. A new model known as FGOALS (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model), has been developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP, CAS), a first-tier national geophysical laboratory. It serves as a powerful tool, both for deepening our understanding of fundamental mechanisms of the climate system and for making decadal prediction and scenario projections of future climate change. ''Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community'' is the first book to offer systematic evaluations of this model's performance. It is comprehensive in scope, covering both developmental and application-oriented aspects of this climate system model. It also provides an outlook of future development of FGOALS and offers an overview of how to employ the model. It represents a valuable reference work for researchers and professionals working within the related areas of climate variability and change.
Biomass burning studies and the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) Project
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Prinn, R.G.
1991-01-01
The perturbations to local and regional atmospheric chemistry caused by biomass burning also have global significance. The International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) Project was created by scientists from over twenty countries in response to the growing interest concern about atmospheric chemical changes and their potential impact on mankind. The goal of the IGAC is to develop a fundamental understanding of the natural and anthropogenic processes that determine the chemical composition of the atmosphere and the interactions between atmospheric composition and biospheric and climatic processes. A specific objective is to accurately predict changes over the next century in the composition and chemistry of the global atmosphere. Current activities, leaders and scientists involved are presented in this chapter
Whole Atmosphere Simulation of Anthropogenic Climate Change
Solomon, Stanley C.; Liu, Han-Li; Marsh, Daniel R.; McInerney, Joseph M.; Qian, Liying; Vitt, Francis M.
2018-02-01
We simulated anthropogenic global change through the entire atmosphere, including the thermosphere and ionosphere, using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model-eXtended. The basic result was that even as the lower atmosphere gradually warms, the upper atmosphere rapidly cools. The simulations employed constant low solar activity conditions, to remove the effects of variable solar and geomagnetic activity. Global mean annual mean temperature increased at a rate of +0.2 K/decade at the surface and +0.4 K/decade in the upper troposphere but decreased by about -1 K/decade in the stratosphere-mesosphere and -2.8 K/decade in the thermosphere. Near the mesopause, temperature decreases were small compared to the interannual variation, so trends in that region are uncertain. Results were similar to previous modeling confined to specific atmospheric levels and compared favorably with available measurements. These simulations demonstrate the ability of a single comprehensive numerical model to characterize global change throughout the atmosphere.
Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming
Berg, Alexis; Findell, Kirsten; Lintner, Benjamin; Giannini, Alessandra; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van den Hurk, Bart; Lorenz, Ruth; Pitman, Andy; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Cheruy, Frédérique; Ducharne, Agnès; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C. D.
2016-01-01
The response of the terrestrial water cycle to global warming is central to issues including water resources, agriculture and ecosystem health. Recent studies indicate that aridity, defined in terms of atmospheric supply (precipitation, P) and demand (potential evapotranspiration, Ep) of water at the land surface, will increase globally in a warmer world. Recently proposed mechanisms for this response emphasize the driving role of oceanic warming and associated atmospheric processes. Here we show that the aridity response is substantially amplified by land–atmosphere feedbacks associated with the land surface’s response to climate and CO2 change. Using simulations from the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 experiment, we show that global aridity is enhanced by the feedbacks of projected soil moisture decrease on land surface temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. The physiological impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on vegetation exerts a qualitatively similar control on aridity. We reconcile these findings with previously proposed mechanisms by showing that the moist enthalpy change over land is unaffected by the land hydrological response. Thus, although oceanic warming constrains the combined moisture and temperature changes over land, land hydrology modulates the partitioning of this enthalpy increase towards increased aridity.
Miyamoto, K.
2005-12-01
I investigate how the intensity and the activity of mid-latitude cyclones change as a result of global warming, based on a time-slice experiment with a super-high resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model (20-km mesh TL959L60 MRI/JMA AGCM). The model was developed by the RR2002 project "Development of Super High Resolution Global and Regional Climate Models" funded by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. In this context, I use a 10-year control simulation with the climatological SST and a 10-year time-slice global warming simulation using the SST anomalies derived from the SRES A1B scenario run with the MRI-CGCM2.3 (T42L30 atmosphere, 0.5-2.0 x 2.5 L23 ocean) corresponding to the end of the 21st century. I have analyzed the sea-level pressure field and the kinetic energy field of the wind at the 500 hPa pressure level associated with mid-latitude transients from October through April. According to a comparison of 10-day average fields between present and future in the North Pacific, some statistically significant changes are found in a warmer climate for the both of sea-level pressure and the kinetic energy fields. In particular, from late winter through early spring, the sea-level pressure decreases on many parts of the whole Pacific. The kinetic energy of the wind becomes higher on center of the basin. Therefore, I suppose the Aleutian Low is likely to settle in longer by about one month than the present. Hereafter, I plan to investigate what kind of phenomena may accompany the changes on mid-latitude transients.
Lightning, atmospheric electricity and climate change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Price, C.
1993-10-01
Temperature records indicate that a global warming of 0.5-0.7 degrees C has occurred over the past century (Hansen and Lebedeff, 1987). Whether this trend is a result of increased trace gas concentrations in the atmosphere, or simply a result of natural variability; is still not known. These temperature trends are derived from thousands of observations worldwide. However, these observations are concentrated largely over continental areas, and then mainly in the northern hemisphere's populated regions. This northern hemisphere continental bias results in large uncertainties in estimates of global temperature trends. Due to the increasing evidence that the present buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere may result in an additional global warming of 1-5 degrees C by the year 2050 (IPCC, 1990), it is increasingly important to find afternative methods to monitor fluctuations in global surface temperatures. As shown by two recent studies (Williams, 1992; Price, 1993), the global atmospheric electric circuit may provide a promising afternative for monitoring future climate change
Global biomass burning. Atmospheric, climatic, and biospheric implications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Levine, J.S.
1991-01-01
Biomass burning is a significant source of atmospheric gases and, as such, may contribute to global climate changes. Biomass burning includes burning forests and savanna grasslands for land clearing, burning agricultural stubble and waste after harvesting, and burning biomass fuels. The chapters in this volume include the following topics: remote sensing of biomass burning from space;geographical distribution of burning; combustion products of burning in tropical, temperate and boreal ecosystems; burning as a global source of atmospheric gases and particulates; impacts of biomass burning gases and particulates on global climate; and the role of biomass burning on biodiversity and past global extinctions. A total of 1428 references are cited for the 63 chapters. Individual chapters are indexed separately for the data bases
(Chemistry of the global atmosphere)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Marland, G.
1990-09-27
The traveler attended the conference The Chemistry of the Global Atmosphere,'' and presented a paper on the anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) to the atmosphere. The conference included meetings of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) programme, a core project of the International Geosphere/Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the traveler participated in meetings on the IGAC project Development of Global Emissions Inventories'' and agreed to coordinate the working group on CO{sub 2}. Papers presented at the conference focused on the latest developments in analytical methods, modeling and understanding of atmospheric CO{sub 2}, CO, CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, NMHCs, CFCs, and aerosols.
Acidic deposition and global climate change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nikolaidis, N.P.; Ecsedy, C.; Olem, H.; Nikolaidis, V.S.
1990-01-01
A literature is presented which examines the research published on understanding ecosystem acidification and the effects of acidic deposition on freshwaters. Topics of discussion include the following: acidic deposition; regional assessments; atmospheric deposition and transport; aquatic effects; mathematical modeling; liming acidic waters; global climate change; atmospheric changes; climate feedbacks; and aquatic effects
The World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme coordinates high-quality observations of atmospheric composition from global to local scales with the aim to drive high-quality and high-impact science while co-producing a new generation of pro...
The role of moisture transport between ground and atmosphere in global change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rind, D.; Rosenzweig, C.; Stieglitz, M.
1997-01-01
Projections of the effect of climate change on future water availability are examined by reviewing the formulations used to calculate moisture transport between the ground and the atmosphere. General circulation models and climate change impact models have substantially different formulations for evapotranspiration, so their projections of future water availability often disagree, even though they use the same temperature and precipitation forecasts. General circulation models forecast little change in tropical and subtropical water availability, while impact models show severe water and agricultural shortages. A comparison of observations and modeling techniques shows that the parameterizations in general circulation models likely lead to an underestimate of the impacts of global warming on soil moisture and vegetation. Such errors would crucially affect the temperature and precipitation forecasts used in impact models. Some impact model evaporation formulations are probably more appropriate than those in general circulation models, but important questions remain. More observations are needed, especially in the vicinity of forests, to determine appropriate parameterizations
Changes in precipitation extremes projected by a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Akio Kitoh
2016-03-01
Full Text Available High-resolution modeling is necessary to project weather and climate extremes and their future changes under global warming. A global high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model with grid size about 20 km is able to reproduce climate fields as well as regional-scale phenomena such as monsoonal rainfall, tropical and extratropical cyclones, and heavy precipitation. This 20-km mesh model is applied to project future changes in weather and climate extremes at the end of the 21st century with four different spatial patterns in sea surface temperature (SST changes: one with the mean SST changes by the 28 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP-8.5 scenario, and the other three obtained from a cluster analysis, in which tropical SST anomalies derived from the 28 CMIP5 models were grouped. Here we focus on future changes in regional precipitation and its extremes. Various precipitation indices averaged over the Twenty-two regional land domains are calculated. Heavy precipitation indices (maximum 5-day precipitation total and maximum 1-day precipitation total increase in all regional domains, even where mean precipitation decrease (Southern Africa, South Europe/Mediterranean, Central America. South Asia is the domain of the largest extreme precipitation increase. In some domains, different SST patterns result in large precipitation changes, possibly related to changes in large-scale circulations in the tropical Pacific.
Global Atmosphere Watch Workshop on Measurement-Model ...
The World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme coordinates high-quality observations of atmospheric composition from global to local scales with the aim to drive high-quality and high-impact science while co-producing a new generation of products and services. In line with this vision, GAW’s Scientific Advisory Group for Total Atmospheric Deposition (SAG-TAD) has a mandate to produce global maps of wet, dry and total atmospheric deposition for important atmospheric chemicals to enable research into biogeochemical cycles and assessments of ecosystem and human health effects. The most suitable scientific approach for this activity is the emerging technique of measurement-model fusion for total atmospheric deposition. This technique requires global-scale measurements of atmospheric trace gases, particles, precipitation composition and precipitation depth, as well as predictions of the same from global/regional chemical transport models. The fusion of measurement and model results requires data assimilation and mapping techniques. The objective of the GAW Workshop on Measurement-Model Fusion for Global Total Atmospheric Deposition (MMF-GTAD), an initiative of the SAG-TAD, was to review the state-of-the-science and explore the feasibility and methodology of producing, on a routine retrospective basis, global maps of atmospheric gas and aerosol concentrations as well as wet, dry and total deposition via measurement-model
Le, Lulseged Tamene, Paul L. G. Vlek, Quang Bao
2009-04-01
Land degradation is one of the most widespread environmental problems worldwide. The sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is one of the most seriously affected regions with huge implications on food security and economic development. To plan plausible management measures, understanding the magnitude of the problem and identification of hotspot areas are necessary. Analysis of remote sensing and climate data observed from space for the period 1982 - 2003 showed significant improvement in vegetation productivity across 30% of SSA with decline on 5% of the subcontinent. Global change in atmospheric chemistry is likely responsible for the observed increasing trend in vegetation productivity. Such widespread greening observed from space could mask anthropogenic land degradation processes such as land conversion, selective logging, and soil nutrient mining. To assess this possible masking effect, a re-analysis of the vegetation productivity dynamics, taking into account atmospheric fertilization, was conducted. This was performed by analyzing the long-term trend in vegetation productivity of pristine lands (areas with minimum human- and climate- related impacts) identified across different biomes in SSA. The baseline slope values of biomass accrual calculated for those pristine lands were estimated and used to re-calculate the long-term trend of green biomass with and without the impact of atmospheric fertilization. This ultimately enabled to delineate the areas that would have experienced significant loss in vegetation productivity had the atmospheric chemistry not changed. The result suggests that seven times more than the area of actual productivity decline in SSA is affected by land degradation processes that are concealed by atmospheric fertilization. With this rate of surreptitious loss of vital land attributes and with the current rate of population growth (3%), the SSA subcontinent may soon lack the land resources necessary to foster economic development. Spatially
Global Modeling Study of the Bioavailable Atmospheric Iron Supply to the Global Ocean
Myriokefalitakis, S.; Krol, M. C.; van Noije, T.; Le Sager, P.
2017-12-01
Atmospheric deposition of trace constituents acts as a nutrient source to the open ocean and affect marine ecosystem. Dust is known as a major source of nutrients to the global ocean, but only a fraction of these nutrients is released in a bioavailable form that can be assimilated by the marine biota. Iron (Fe) is a key micronutrient that significantly modulates gross primary production in the High-Nutrient-Low-Chlorophyll (HNLC) oceans, where macronutrients like nitrate are abundant, but primary production is limited by Fe scarcity. The global atmospheric Fe cycle is here parameterized in the state-of-the-art global Earth System Model EC-Earth. The model takes into account the primary emissions of both insoluble and soluble Fe forms, associated with mineral dust and combustion aerosols. The impact of atmospheric acidity and organic ligands on mineral dissolution processes, is parameterized based on updated experimental and theoretical findings. Model results are also evaluated against available observations. Overall, the link between the labile Fe atmospheric deposition and atmospheric composition changes is here demonstrated and quantified. This work has been financed by the Marie-Curie H2020-MSCA-IF-2015 grant (ID 705652) ODEON (Online DEposition over OceaNs; modeling the effect of air pollution on ocean bio-geochemistry in an Earth System Model).
NASA/MSFC FY88 Global Scale Atmospheric Processes Research Program Review
Wilson, Greg S. (Editor); Leslie, Fred W. (Editor); Arnold, J. E. (Editor)
1989-01-01
Interest in environmental issues and the magnitude of the environmental changes continues. One way to gain more understanding of the atmosphere is to make measurements on a global scale from space. The Earth Observation System is a series of new sensors to measure globally atmospheric parameters. Analysis of satellite data by developing algorithms to interpret the radiance information improves the understanding and also defines requirements for these sensors. One measure of knowledge of the atmosphere lies in the ability to predict its behavior. Use of numerical and experimental models provides a better understanding of these processes. These efforts are described in the context of satellite data analysis and fundamental studies of atmospheric dynamics which examine selected processes important to the global circulation.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Moharam-nejad, Naser.
1995-01-01
Greenhouse effect is defined. greenhouse gases which are capable to produce greenhouse effect is mentioned. The production of greenhouse effects depends on the following factors; The amount of discharge to the atmosphere, Concentration, Life span, stability, Absorption and Emission. The effect of global change of climate on agriculture and living organisms is discussed. Global actions related to climate change and national procedures are described. The aim of climate change convention is given and the important points of convention is also mentioned
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Canadell, Pep
2007-01-01
Full text: The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (C02) is the single largest human perturbation on the earth's radiative balance contributing to climate change. Its rate of change reflects the balance between anthropogenic carbon emissions and the dynamics of a number of terrestrial and ocean processes that remove or emit C02. It is the long term evolution of this balance that will determine to large extent the speed and magnitude of the human induced climate change and the mitigation requirements to stabilise atmospheric C02 concentrations at any given level. In this talk, we show new trends in global carbon sources and sinks, with particularly focus on major shifts occurring since 2000 when the growth rate of atmospheric C02 has reached its highest level on record. The acceleration in the C02 growth results from the combination of several changes in properties of the carbon cycle, including: acceleration of anthropogenic carbon emissions; increased carbon intensity of the global economy, and decreased efficiency of natural carbon sinks. We discuss in more detail some of the possible causes of the reduced efficiency of natural carbon sinks on land and oceans, such as the decreased net sink in the Southern Ocean and on terrestrial mid-latitudes due to world-wide occurrence of drought. All these changes reported here characterise a carbon cycle that is generating stronger than expected climate forcing, and sooner than expected
Global atmospheric particle formation from CERN CLOUD measurements
Dunne, Eimear M.; Gordon, Hamish; Carslaw, Kenneth S.
2017-04-01
New particle formation (or nucleation) is acknowledged as a significant source of climate-relevant aerosol throughout the atmosphere. However, performing atmospherically relevant nucleation experiments in a laboratory setting is extremely challenging. As a result, until now, the parameterisations used to represent new particle formation in global aerosol models were largely based on in-situ observations or theoretical nucleation models, and usually only represented the binary H2SO4-H2O system. Several different chemicals can affect particle formation rates, even at extremely low trace concentrations, which are technically challenging to measure directly. Nucleation rates also respond to environmental changes in e.g. temperature in a highly non-linear fashion. The CERN CLOUD experiment was designed to provide the most controlled and accurate nucleation rate measurements to date, over the full range of free tropospheric temperatures and down to sulphuric acid concentrations of the order of 105 cm-3. We will present a parameterisation of inorganic nucleation rates for use in global models, based on these measurements, which includes four separate nucleation pathways: binary neutral, binary ion-induced, ternary neutral, and ternary ion-induced. Both inorganic and organic nucleation parameterisations derived from CLOUD measurements have been implemented in the GLOMAP global aerosol model. The parameterisations depend on temperature and on concentrations of sulphuric acid, ammonia, organic vapours, and ions. One of CLOUD's main original goals was to determine the sensitivity of atmospheric aerosol to changes in the nucleation rate over a solar cycle. We will show that, in a present-day atmosphere, the changes in climate-relevant aerosol (in the form of cloud-level cloud condensation nuclei) over a solar cycle are on average about 0.1%, with local changes of less than 1%. In contrast, anthropogenic changes in ammonia since pre-industrial times were estimated to have a
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cao, Mingkui; Tao, B.; Li, Kerang; Prince, Stephen D.; Small, J.
2005-01-01
Atmospheric measurements indicate that the terrestrial carbon sink increased substantially from the 1980s to the 1990s, but which factors and regions were responsible for the increase are not well identified yet. Using process- and remote sensing-based ecosystem models, we show that changes in climate and atmospheric CO 2 in the period 1981-2000 enhanced net ecosystem production (NEP) and caused major geographical changes in the global distribution of NEP. In the 1980s the Americas accounted for almost all of the global NEP, but in the 1990s NEP in Eurasia and Africa became higher than that of the Americas. The year-to-year variation in global NEP was up to 2.5 Pg C (1 Pg = 10 15 g), in which 1.4 Pg C was attributable to the El Nino Southern Oscillation cycle (ENSO). NEP clearly decreased in El Nino and increased in La Nina in South America and Africa, but the response in North America and Eurasia was mixed. The estimated NEP increases accounted for only 30% of the global terrestrial carbon sink but can explain almost all of the increase from the 1980s to the 1990s. Because a large part of the increase in NEP was driven by the long-term trend of climate and atmospheric CO 2 , the increase in the global terrestrial carbon sink from the 1980s to the 1990s was a continuation of the trend since the middle of the twentieth century, rather than merely a consequence of short-time climate variability
Implications for human health of global atmospheric changes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guidotti, T.L.; Last, J.
1991-01-01
The possible impacts of the greenhouse effect, ozone depletion and ultraviolet irradiation, acid precipitation, and resulting demographic changes are reviewed, along with the implications of global ecological changes on society and sustainable development. Some manifestations of global warming caused by the greenhouse effect could include more frequently extreme weather conditions, rises in sea level, disruption of ocean currents, and changes in composition and distribution of vegetation. Consequences of these manifestations on human health include an increase in the frequency of droughts and heat waves, migration of disease carrying vectors to other areas, submergence of coastal areas and disruption of water supplies, destruction of tropical species potentially useful for medicinal purposes, and impaired production of crops leading to food shortages. Consequences of stratospheric ozone depletion due to chlorofluorocarbon pollution are thought to be a direct result of increased exposure to ultraviolet light; these consequences include higher risks of non-melanoma skin cancer. The effects of acid precipitation are thought to be primarily ecological and indirect. 61 refs,
Biomass burning studies and the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) project
Prinn, Ronald G.
1991-01-01
IGAC is an ambitious, decade-long and global research initiative concerned with major research challenges in the field of atmospheric chemistry; its chemists and ecosystem biologists are addressing the problems associated with global biomass burning (BMB). Among IGAC's goals is the achievement of a fundamental understanding of the natural and anthropogenic processes determining changes in atmospheric composition and chemistry, in order to allow century-long predictions. IGAC's studies have been organized into 'foci', encompassing the marine, tropical, polar, boreal, and midlatitude areas, as well as their global composite interactions. Attention is to be given to the effects of BMB on biogeochemical cycles.
Large scale atmospheric tropical circulation changes and consequences during global warming
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gastineau, G.
2008-01-01
The changes of the tropical large scale circulation during climate change can have large impacts on human activities. In a first part, the meridional atmospheric tropical circulation was studied in the different coupled models. During climate change, we find, on the one hand, that the Hadley meridional circulation and the subtropical jet are significantly shifted poleward, and on the other hand, that the intensity of the tropical circulation weakens. The slow down of the atmospheric circulation results from the dry static stability changes affecting the tropical troposphere. Secondly, idealized simulations are used to explain the tropical circulation changes. Ensemble simulation using the model LMDZ4 are set up to study the results from the coupled model IPSLCM4. The weakening of the large scale tropical circulation and the poleward shift of the Hadley cells are explained by both the uniform change and the meridional gradient change of the sea surface temperature. Then, we used the atmospheric model LMDZ4 in an aqua-planet configuration. The Hadley circulation changes are explained in a simple framework by the required poleward energy transport. In a last part, we focus on the water vapor distribution and feedback in the climate models. The Hadley circulation changes were shown to have a significant impact on the water vapour feedback during climate change. (author)
Bioavailable atmospheric phosphorous supply to the global ocean: a 3-D global modeling study
Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Nenes, Athanasios; Baker, Alex R.; Mihalopoulos, Nikolaos; Kanakidou, Maria
2016-12-01
bioavailable P flux of about 0.17 Tg-P yr-1 to the oceans is derived. Our calculations further show that in some regions more than half of the bioavailable P deposition flux to the ocean can originate from biological particles, while this contribution is found to maximize in summer when atmospheric deposition impact on the marine ecosystem is the highest due to ocean stratification. Thus, according to this global study, a largely unknown but potentially important role of terrestrial bioaerosols as suppliers of bioavailable P to the global ocean is also revealed. Overall, this work provides new insights to the atmospheric P cycle by demonstrating that biological materials are important carriers of bioavailable P, with very important implications for past and future responses of marine ecosystems to global change.
Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and earth system processes
Zhang, Taiping; Verbitsky, Mikhail; Saltzman, Barry; Mann, Michael E.; Park, Jeffrey; Lall, Upmanu
1995-01-01
During the grant period, the authors continued ongoing studies aimed at enhancing their understanding of the operation of the atmosphere as a complex nonlinear system interacting with the hydrosphere, biosphere, and cryosphere in response to external radiative forcing. Five papers were completed with support from the grant, representing contributions in three main areas of study: (1) theoretical studies of the interactive atmospheric response to changed biospheric boundary conditions measurable from satellites; (2) statistical-observational studies of global-scale temperature variability on interannual to century time scales; and (3) dynamics of long-term earth system changes associated with ice sheet surges.
Voigt, A.
2017-12-01
Climate models project that global warming will lead to substantial changes in extratropical jet streams. Yet, many quantitative aspects of warming-induced jet stream changes remain uncertain, and recent work has indicated an important role of clouds and their radiative interactions. Here, I will investigate how cloud-radiative changes impact the zonal-mean extratropical circulation response under global warming using a hierarchy of global atmosphere models. I will first focus on aquaplanet setups with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which reproduce the model spread found in realistic simulations with interactive SSTs. Simulations with two CMIP5 models MPI-ESM and IPSL-CM5A and prescribed clouds show that half of the circulation response can be attributed to cloud changes. The rise of tropical high-level clouds and the upward and poleward movement of midlatitude high-level clouds lead to poleward jet shifts. High-latitude low-level cloud changes shift the jet poleward in one model but not in the other. The impact of clouds on the jet operates via the atmospheric radiative forcing that is created by the cloud changes and is qualitatively reproduced in a dry Held-Suarez model, although the latter is too sensitive because of its simplified treatment of diabatic processes. I will then show that the aquaplanet results also hold when the models are used in a realistic setup that includes continents and seasonality. I will further juxtapose these prescribed-SST simulations with interactive-SST simulations and show that atmospheric and surface cloud-radiative interactions impact the jet poleward jet shifts in about equal measure. Finally, I will discuss the cloud impact on regional and seasonal circulation changes.
Global warming and climate change: control methods
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Laal, M.; Aliramaie, A.
2008-01-01
This paper aimed at finding causes of global warming and ways to bring it under control. Data based on scientific opinion as given by synthesis reports of news, articles, web sites, and books. global warming is the observed and projected increases in average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans. Carbon dioxide and other air pollution that is collecting in the atmosphere like a thickening blanket, trapping the sun's heat and causing the planet to warm up. Pollution is one of the biggest man-made problems. Burning fossil fuels is the main factor of pollution. As average temperature increases, habitats, species and people are threatened by drought, changes in rainfall, altered seasons, and more violent storms and floods. Indeed the life cycle of nuclear power results in relatively little pollution. Energy efficiency, solar, wind and other renewable fuels are other weapons against global warming . Human activity, primarily burning fossil fuels, is the major driving factor in global warming . Curtailing the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by reducing use of oil, gasoline, coal and employment of alternate energy, sources are the tools for keeping global warming under control. global warming can be slowed and stopped, with practical actions thal yield a cleaner, healthier atmosphere
Governing atmospheric sinks: the architecture of entitlements in the global commons
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jouni Paavola
2008-07-01
Full Text Available This article revisits key works on the management of common-pool resources under common property arrangements, in order to elicit a broader notion of collective ownership for analysing institutional arrangements that govern the use of large-scale environmental resources such as biodiversity and atmospheric sinks. The article proposes a model for analysing the institutional design of governance solutions which draws attention to 1 tiers and levels, 2 organisation of generic governance functions, and 3 formulation of specific institutional rules. The article exemplifies these analytical solutions by examining the emerging governance framework for global atmospheric sinks. The article indicates how crucial parts of the institutional framework for governing atmospheric sinks are still missing, a shortcoming which maintains the ‘‘tragedy of the commons’’ in their use. The article suggests that a workable governance solution for global atmospheric sinks has to 1 cap the use of atmospheric sinks; 2 provide for a more equitable benefit sharing; 3 provide for compensation of climate change impacts and assistance for adaptation to climate change impacts; and 4 create institutional solutions for enhancing participation in environmental decisions in order to guarantee progress in and legitimacy of the governance framework.
The global atmospheric electric circuit and its effects on cloud microphysics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tinsley, B A
2008-01-01
This review is an overview of progress in understanding the theory and observation of the global atmospheric electric circuit, with the focus on its dc aspects, and its short and long term variability. The effects of the downward ionosphere-earth current density, J z , on cloud microphysics, with its variability as an explanation for small observed changes in weather and climate, will also be reviewed. The global circuit shows responses to external as well as internal forcing. External forcing arises from changes in the distribution of conductivity due to changes in the cosmic ray flux and other energetic space particle fluxes, and at high magnetic latitudes from solar wind electric fields. Internal forcing arises from changes in the generators and changes in volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols in the troposphere and stratosphere. All these result in spatial and temporal variation in J z . Variations in J z affect the production of space charge in layer clouds, with the charges being transferred to droplets and aerosol particles. New observations and new analyses are consistent with non-negligible effects of the charges on the microphysics of such clouds. Observed effects are small, but of high statistical significance for cloud cover and precipitation changes, with resulting atmospheric temperature, pressure and dynamics changes. These effects are detectable on the day-to-day timescale for repeated J z changes of order 10%, and are thus second order electrical effects. The implicit first order effects have not, as yet, been incorporated into basic cloud and aerosol physics. Long term (multidecadal through millennial) global circuit changes, due to solar activity modulating the galactic cosmic ray flux, are an order of magnitude greater at high latitudes and in the stratosphere, as can be inferred from geological cosmogenic isotope records. Proxies for climate change in the same stratified depositories show strong correlations of climate with the inferred global
The global atmospheric electric circuit and its effects on cloud microphysics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tinsley, B A [Physics Department and Center for Space Sciences, WT15, University of Texas at Dallas, 800 W Campbell Road, Richardson, TX, 75080-3021 (United States)], E-mail: Tinsley@UTDallas.edu
2008-06-15
This review is an overview of progress in understanding the theory and observation of the global atmospheric electric circuit, with the focus on its dc aspects, and its short and long term variability. The effects of the downward ionosphere-earth current density, J{sub z}, on cloud microphysics, with its variability as an explanation for small observed changes in weather and climate, will also be reviewed. The global circuit shows responses to external as well as internal forcing. External forcing arises from changes in the distribution of conductivity due to changes in the cosmic ray flux and other energetic space particle fluxes, and at high magnetic latitudes from solar wind electric fields. Internal forcing arises from changes in the generators and changes in volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols in the troposphere and stratosphere. All these result in spatial and temporal variation in J{sub z}. Variations in J{sub z} affect the production of space charge in layer clouds, with the charges being transferred to droplets and aerosol particles. New observations and new analyses are consistent with non-negligible effects of the charges on the microphysics of such clouds. Observed effects are small, but of high statistical significance for cloud cover and precipitation changes, with resulting atmospheric temperature, pressure and dynamics changes. These effects are detectable on the day-to-day timescale for repeated J{sub z} changes of order 10%, and are thus second order electrical effects. The implicit first order effects have not, as yet, been incorporated into basic cloud and aerosol physics. Long term (multidecadal through millennial) global circuit changes, due to solar activity modulating the galactic cosmic ray flux, are an order of magnitude greater at high latitudes and in the stratosphere, as can be inferred from geological cosmogenic isotope records. Proxies for climate change in the same stratified depositories show strong correlations of climate with the
Global change: Acronyms and abbreviations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Woodard, C.T. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Stoss, F.W. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Energy, Environment and Resources Center
1995-05-01
This list of acronyms and abbreviations is compiled to provide the user with a ready reference to dicipher the linguistic initialisms and abridgements for the study of global change. The terms included in this first edition were selected from a wide variety of sources: technical reports, policy documents, global change program announcements, newsletters, and other periodicals. The disciplinary interests covered by this document include agriculture, atmospheric science, ecology, environmental science, oceanography, policy science, and other fields. In addition to its availability in hard copy, the list of acronyms and abbreviations is available in DOS-formatted diskettes and through CDIAC`s anonymous File Transfer Protocol (FTP) area on the Internet.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Christopher W Habeck
Full Text Available Global atmospheric change is influencing the quality of plants as a resource for herbivores. We investigated the impacts of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2 and ozone (O3 on the phytochemistry of two forbs, Solidago canadensis and Taraxacum officinale, and the subsequent feeding behavior and growth performance of weanling prairie voles (Microtus ochrogaster feeding on those plants. Plants for the chemical analyses and feeding trials were harvested from the understory of control (ambient air, elevated CO2 (560 µl CO2 l(-1, and elevated O3 (ambient × 1.5 rings at the Aspen FACE (Free Air CO2 Enrichment site near Rhinelander, Wisconsin. We assigned individual voles to receive plants from only one FACE ring and recorded plant consumption and weanling body mass for seven days. Elevated CO2 and O3 altered the foliar chemistry of both forbs, but only female weanling voles on the O3 diet showed negative responses to these changes. Elevated CO2 increased the fiber fractions of both plant species, whereas O3 fumigation elicited strong responses among many phytochemical components, most notably increasing the carbon-to-nitrogen ratio by 40% and decreasing N by 26%. Consumption did not differ between plant species or among fumigation treatments. Male voles were unaffected by the fumigation treatments, whereas female voles grew 36% less than controls when fed O3-grown plants. These results demonstrate that global atmospheric change has the potential to affect the performance of a mammalian herbivore through changes in plant chemistry.
Habeck, Christopher W; Lindroth, Richard L
2013-01-01
Global atmospheric change is influencing the quality of plants as a resource for herbivores. We investigated the impacts of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone (O3) on the phytochemistry of two forbs, Solidago canadensis and Taraxacum officinale, and the subsequent feeding behavior and growth performance of weanling prairie voles (Microtus ochrogaster) feeding on those plants. Plants for the chemical analyses and feeding trials were harvested from the understory of control (ambient air), elevated CO2 (560 µl CO2 l(-1)), and elevated O3 (ambient × 1.5) rings at the Aspen FACE (Free Air CO2 Enrichment) site near Rhinelander, Wisconsin. We assigned individual voles to receive plants from only one FACE ring and recorded plant consumption and weanling body mass for seven days. Elevated CO2 and O3 altered the foliar chemistry of both forbs, but only female weanling voles on the O3 diet showed negative responses to these changes. Elevated CO2 increased the fiber fractions of both plant species, whereas O3 fumigation elicited strong responses among many phytochemical components, most notably increasing the carbon-to-nitrogen ratio by 40% and decreasing N by 26%. Consumption did not differ between plant species or among fumigation treatments. Male voles were unaffected by the fumigation treatments, whereas female voles grew 36% less than controls when fed O3-grown plants. These results demonstrate that global atmospheric change has the potential to affect the performance of a mammalian herbivore through changes in plant chemistry.
Surface water change as a significant contributor to global evapotranspiration change
Zhan, S.; Song, C.
2017-12-01
Water comprises a critical component of global/regional hydrological and biogeochemical cycles and is essential to all organisms including humans. In the past several decades, climate change has intensified the hydrological cycle, with significant implications for ecosystem services and feedback to regional and global climate. Evapotranspiration (ET) as a linking mechanism between land surface and atmosphere is central to the water cycle and an excellent indicator of the intensity of water cycle. Knowledge of the temporal changes of ET is crucial for accurately estimating global or regional water budgets and better understanding climate and hydrological interactions. While studies have examined changes in global ET, they were conducted using a constant land and surface water (SW) area. However, as many studies have found that global SW is very dynamic and their surface areas have generally been increasing since the 1980s. The conversion from land to water and vice versa significantly changes the local ET since water bodies evaporate at a rate that can be much higher than that of the land. Here, we quantify the global changes in ET caused by such land-water conversion using remotely-sensed SW area and various ET and potential ET products. New SW and lost SW between circa-1985 and circa-2015 were derived from remote sensing and were used to modify the local ET estimates. We found an increase in ET in all continents as consistent with the net increase in SW area. The increasing SW area lead to a global increase in ET by 30.38 ± 5.28 km3/yr. This is a significant contribution when compared to the 92.95 km3/yr/yr increase in ET between 1982-1997 and 103.43 km3/yr/yr decrease between 1998-2008 by Jung et al., (2010) assuming a constant SW. The results enhance our understanding of the water fluxes between the land and atmosphere and supplement land water budget estimates. We conclude that changes in SW lead to a significant change in global ET that cannot be neglected in
The physical drivers of historical and 21st century global precipitation changes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thorpe, Livia; Andrews, Timothy
2014-01-01
Historical and 21st century global precipitation changes are investigated using data from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Atmosphere-Ocean-General-Circulation-Models (AOGCMs) and a simple energy-balance model. In the simple model, precipitation change in response to a given top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing is calculated as the sum of a response to the surface warming and a direct ‘adjustment’ response to the atmospheric radiative forcing. This simple model allows the adjustment in global mean precipitation to atmospheric radiative forcing from different forcing agents to be examined separately and emulates the AOGCMs well. During the historical period the AOGCMs simulate little global precipitation change despite an increase in global temperature—at the end of the historical period, global multi-model mean precipitation has increased by about 0.03 mm day −1 , while the global multi-model mean surface temperature has warmed by about 1 K, both relative to the pre-industrial control means. This is because there is a large direct effect from CO 2 and black carbon atmospheric forcing that opposes the increase in precipitation from surface warming. In the 21st century scenarios, the opposing effect from black carbon declines and the increase in global precipitation due to surface warming dominates. The cause of the spread between models in the global precipitation projections (which can be up to 0.25 mm day −1 ) is examined and found to come mainly from uncertainty in the climate sensitivity. The spatial distribution of precipitation change is found to be dominated by the response to surface warming. It is concluded that AOGCM global precipitation projections are in line with expectations based on our understanding of how the energy and water cycles are physically linked. (letters)
Combustion's impact on the global atmosphere
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Prather, M.J.; Logan, J.A.
1994-01-01
The combustion of a hydrocarbon fuel removes molecular oxygen (O 2 ) from the atmosphere and releases equivalent amounts of water (H 2 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), almost always with trace amounts of numerous other compounds including hydrocarbon (CH 4 , C 2 H 2 , C 2 H 4 , C 2 H 6 , C 3 H 8 , C 6 H 6 , CH 3 CHO, etc.), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO, N 2 O) and reduced nitrogen (NH 3 and HCN), sulfur gases (SO 2 , OCS, CS 2 ), halocarbons (CH 3 Al and CH 3 Br), and particles. A review of the atmospheric budgets of these gases shows that burning of fossil fuels and recent biomass has led to global alterations in the composition of the atmosphere. Combustion is clearly responsible for most of the enhanced greenhouse forcing to date (through CO 2 , tropospheric O 3 , soot) and also some counteracting effects (through SO 2 ). It has had minimal impact on stratospheric O 3 (through CH 3 Cl, CH 3 Br, CH 4 ), but has likely changed the tropospheric oxidant levels (through CO, NO x , NMHC), at least over the northern hemisphere. Most of the important greenhouse gases and tropospheric oxidant gases have significant natural sources, which are not well defined today and may be changing; and thus, quantifying the role of combustion is difficult. 113 refs
Inadvertent weather modification urban areas - lessons for global climate change
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Changnon, S A [Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL (USA)
1992-05-01
Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the USA's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multidisciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioural implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally.
Inadvertent weather modification urban areas - lessons for global climate change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Changnon, S.A.
1992-01-01
Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the USA's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multidisciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioural implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally
Northern peatlands in global climatic change
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Laiho, R.; Laine, J.; Vasander, H. [eds.] [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Forest Ecology
1996-12-31
Northern peatlands are important in regulating the global climate. While sequestering carbon dioxide, these peatlands release ca. 24-39 Tg methane annually to the atmosphere. This is 5-20 % of the annual anthropogenic methane emissions to the atmosphere. The greenhouse gas balance of peatlands may change as a consequence of water level draw-down after land-use change, or if summers become warmer and drier, as has been predicted for high latitudes after climatic warming. Subsequent emissions of methane would decrease, whereas emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide would increase. Within the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU), the research project `Carbon Balance of Peatlands and Climate Change` (SUOSILMU) has been under progress since 1990. It is a co-operative research project, with research groups from the Universities of Helsinki and Joensuu, the Finnish Forest Research Institute, the National Public Health Institute and the Finnish Environment Agency. The research consortium of this project organised a workshop entitled `Northern Peatlands in Global Climatic Change - Hyytiaelae Revisited` October 8-12, 1995. The main objective of the workshop was to review the state of the art of the carbon cycling research in natural and managed peatlands. The role of peatlands in the greenhouse effect, their response and feedback to the predicted climate change, and the consequences of land-use changes were assessed, and the future research needs were evaluated. The latest information on the role of peatlands in the atmospheric change was given in 50 posters and 4 key lectures. Results of SUOSILMU projects were demonstrated during a 1-day field excursion to one of the intensive study sites, Lakkasuo near Hyytiaelae
Observations. Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change. Chapter 3
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Trenberth, K.E.; Jones, P.D.; Ambenje, P.; Bojariu, R.; Easterling, D.; Klein Tank, A.; Parker, D.; Rahimzadeh, F.; Renwick, J.A.; Rusticucci, M.; Soden, B.; Zhai, P.
2007-09-15
This chapter assesses the observed changes in surface and atmospheric climate, placing new observations and new analyses made during the past six years (since the Third Assessment Report TAR) in the context of the previous instrumental record. In previous IPCC reports, palaeo-observations from proxy data for the pre-instrumental past and observations from the ocean and ice domains were included within the same chapter. This helped the overall assessment of the consistency among the various variables and their synthesis into a coherent picture of change. A short synthesis and scrutiny of the consistency of all the observations is included here (see Section 3.9). In the TAR, surface temperature trends were examined from 1860 to 2000 globally, for 1901 to 2000 as maps and for three sub-periods (1910-1945, 1946-1975 and 1976-2000). The first and third sub-periods had rising temperatures, while the second sub-period had relatively stable global mean temperatures. The 1976 divide is the date of a widely acknowledged 'climate shift' and seems to mark a time when global mean temperatures began a discernible upward trend that has been at least partly attributed to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The picture prior to 1976 has essentially not changed and is therefore not repeated in detail here. However, it is more convenient to document the sub-period after 1979, rather than 1976, owing to the availability of increased and improved satellite data since then (in particular Television InfraRed Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) data) in association with the Global Weather Experiment (GWE) of 1979. The post-1979 period allows, for the first time, a global perspective on many fields of variables, such as precipitation, that was not previously available. The availability of high-quality data has led to a focus on the post-1978 period, although physically this new regime seems to have begun in 1976
Change in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
GARREC, Jean-Pierre
2000-01-01
With the constant increase in industrial and agricultural activities since the beginning of the 20. Century, human societies have altered the chemical composition of the atmosphere both in their immediate vicinity and further afar. The most preoccupying problem today is the increase in the so-called greenhouse gases (CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, CFC, O 3 ). Indeed, these pollutant gases generally have long life cycles and consequently have for the first time produced a change in the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale inducing deferred effects such as a likely change in the earth's climate. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R. G. Prinn
2018-06-01
Full Text Available We present the organization, instrumentation, datasets, data interpretation, modeling, and accomplishments of the multinational global atmospheric measurement program AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment. AGAGE is distinguished by its capability to measure globally, at high frequency, and at multiple sites all the important species in the Montreal Protocol and all the important non-carbon-dioxide (non-CO2 gases assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (CO2 is also measured at several sites. The scientific objectives of AGAGE are important in furthering our understanding of global chemical and climatic phenomena. They are the following: (1 to accurately measure the temporal and spatial distributions of anthropogenic gases that contribute the majority of reactive halogen to the stratosphere and/or are strong infrared absorbers (chlorocarbons, chlorofluorocarbons – CFCs, bromocarbons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons – HCFCs, hydrofluorocarbons – HFCs and polyfluorinated compounds (perfluorocarbons – PFCs, nitrogen trifluoride – NF3, sulfuryl fluoride – SO2F2, and sulfur hexafluoride – SF6 and use these measurements to determine the global rates of their emission and/or destruction (i.e., lifetimes; (2 to accurately measure the global distributions and temporal behaviors and determine the sources and sinks of non-CO2 biogenic–anthropogenic gases important to climate change and/or ozone depletion (methane – CH4, nitrous oxide – N2O, carbon monoxide – CO, molecular hydrogen – H2, methyl chloride – CH3Cl, and methyl bromide – CH3Br; (3 to identify new long-lived greenhouse and ozone-depleting gases (e.g., SO2F2, NF3, heavy PFCs (C4F10, C5F12, C6F14, C7F16, and C8F18 and hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs; e.g., CH2 = CFCF3 have been identified in AGAGE, initiate the real-time monitoring of these new gases, and reconstruct their past histories from AGAGE, air archive, and firn air measurements; (4
Sulfur dioxide initiates global climate change in four ways
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ward, Peter L.
2009-01-01
Global climate change, prior to the 20th century, appears to have been initiated primarily by major changes in volcanic activity. Sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) is the most voluminous chemically active gas emitted by volcanoes and is readily oxidized to sulfuric acid normally within weeks. But trace amounts of SO 2 exert significant influence on climate. All major historic volcanic eruptions have formed sulfuric acid aerosols in the lower stratosphere that cooled the earth's surface ∼ 0.5 o C for typically three years. While such events are currently happening once every 80 years, there are times in geologic history when they occurred every few to a dozen years. These were times when the earth was cooled incrementally into major ice ages. There have also been two dozen times during the past 46,000 years when major volcanic eruptions occurred every year or two or even several times per year for decades. Each of these times was contemporaneous with very rapid global warming. Large volumes of SO 2 erupted frequently appear to overdrive the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere resulting in very rapid warming. Such warming and associated acid rain becomes extreme when millions of cubic kilometers of basalt are erupted in much less than one million years. These are the times of the greatest mass extinctions. When major volcanic eruptions do not occur for decades to hundreds of years, the atmosphere can oxidize all pollutants, leading to a very thin atmosphere, global cooling and decadal drought. Prior to the 20th century, increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) followed increases in temperature initiated by changes in SO 2 . By 1962, man burning fossil fuels was adding SO 2 to the atmosphere at a rate equivalent to one 'large' volcanic eruption each 1.7 years. Global temperatures increased slowly from 1890 to 1950 as anthropogenic sulfur increased slowly. Global temperatures increased more rapidly after 1950 as the rate of anthropogenic sulfur emissions increased. By
CLIMATE CHANGE. Long-term climate forcing by atmospheric oxygen concentrations.
Poulsen, Christopher J; Tabor, Clay; White, Joseph D
2015-06-12
The percentage of oxygen in Earth's atmosphere varied between 10% and 35% throughout the Phanerozoic. These changes have been linked to the evolution, radiation, and size of animals but have not been considered to affect climate. We conducted simulations showing that modulation of the partial pressure of oxygen (pO2), as a result of its contribution to atmospheric mass and density, influences the optical depth of the atmosphere. Under low pO2 and a reduced-density atmosphere, shortwave scattering by air molecules and clouds is less frequent, leading to a substantial increase in surface shortwave forcing. Through feedbacks involving latent heat fluxes to the atmosphere and marine stratus clouds, surface shortwave forcing drives increases in atmospheric water vapor and global precipitation, enhances greenhouse forcing, and raises global surface temperature. Our results implicate pO2 as an important factor in climate forcing throughout geologic time. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Thermodynamic contributions of deforestation to global climate change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bell, A.
2009-01-01
This paper examines a portion of the thermodynamics of global warming. The calculations use the endothermic photosynthesis reaction and yearly measures of CO 2 uptake to determine the amount of energy that is absorbed by forest cover each year. The energy absorption value of forest coverage determines the yearly cost of deforestation. The calculations reveal that 3.92 * 10 15 kJ less solar energy is absorbed by global forest coverage because of deforestation each year. The energy is enough to warm the atmosphere by 0.00008 °C / year. By comparison the same amount of energy represents 0.001 % of the atmospheric energy gains between 1995 and 2003. The results of this paper raise questions about the nature of global warming and the possibility that thermodynamic contributions to global climate change are significant. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kusunoki, Shoji; Mizuta, Ryo [Meteorological Research Institute, Climate Research Department, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan); Matsueda, Mio [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)
2011-12-15
Global warming projection experiments were conducted using a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model, focusing on the change in the rain band of East Asian summer monsoon. To assess the uncertainty of climate change projections, we performed ensemble simulations with the 60-km resolution model combining four different SSTs and three atmospheric initial conditions. In the present-day climate simulations, the 20-km model reproduces the rain band of East Asian summer monsoon better than lower resolution models in terms of geographical distribution and seasonal march. In the future climate simulation by the 20-km model, precipitation increases over the Yangtze River valley in May through July, Korean peninsula in May, and Japan in July. The termination of rainy season over Japan tends to be delayed until August. Ensemble simulations by the 60-km model show that precipitation in the future climate for July increases over the Yangtze River valley, the East China Sea and Japan. These changes in precipitation are partly consistent with those projected by the 20-km model. Simulations by the 20-km and 60-km models consistently show that in the future climate the termination of rainy season over Japan tends to be delayed until August. The changes in the vertically integrated water vapor flux show the intensification of clockwise moisture transport over the western Pacific subtropical high. Most precipitation changes over the East Asia can be interpreted as the moisture convergence resulting from change in the horizontal transport of water vapor. (orig.)
Leggett, L. Mark W.; Ball, David A.
2018-02-01
The difference between the time series trend for temperature expected from the increasing level of atmospheric CO2 and that for the (more slowly rising) observed temperature has been termed the global surface temperature slowdown. In this paper, we characterise the single time series made from the subtraction of these two time series as the `global surface temperature gap'. We also develop an analogous atmospheric CO2 gap series from the difference between the level of CO2 and first-difference CO2 (that is, the change in CO2 from one period to the next). This paper provides three further pieces of evidence concerning the global surface temperature slowdown. First, we find that the present size of both the global surface temperature gap and the CO2 gap is unprecedented over a period starting at least as far back as the 1860s. Second, ARDL and Granger causality analyses involving the global surface temperature gap against the major candidate physical drivers of the ocean heat sink and biosphere evapotranspiration are conducted. In each case where ocean heat data was available, it was significant in the models: however, evapotranspiration, or its argued surrogate precipitation, also remained significant in the models alongside ocean heat. In terms of relative scale, the standardised regression coefficient for evapotranspiration was repeatedly of the same order of magnitude as—typically as much as half that for—ocean heat. The foregoing is evidence that, alongside the ocean heat sink, evapotranspiration is also likely to be making a substantial contribution to the global atmospheric temperature outcome. Third, there is evidence that both the ocean heat sink and the evapotranspiration process might be able to continue into the future to keep the temperature lower than the level-of-CO2 models would suggest. It is shown that this means there can be benefit in using the first-difference CO2 to temperature relationship shown in Leggett and Ball (Atmos Chem Phys 15
Plag, Hans-Peter
2009-01-01
Geodesy plays a key role in geodynamics, geohazards, the global water cycle, global change, atmosphere and ocean dynamics. This book covers geodesy's contribution to science and society and identifies user needs regarding geodetic observations and products.
Global changes and the air-sea exchange of chemicals
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1991-01-01
Present and potential future changes to the global environment have important implications for marine pollution and for the air-sea exchange of both anthropogenic and natural substances. This report addresses three issues related to the potential impact of global change on the air-sea exchange of chemicals: Global change and the air-sea transfer of the nutrients nitrogen and iron. Global change and the air-sea exchange of gases. Oceanic responses to radiative and oxidative changes in the atmosphere. The deposition of atmospheric anthropogenic nitrogen has probably increased biological productivity in coastal regions along many continental margins. Atmospheric deposition of new nitrogen may also have increased productivity somewhat in mid-ocean regions. The projected future increases of nitrogen oxide emissions from Asia, Africa and South America will provide significant increases in the rate of deposition of oxidized nitrogen to the central North Pacific, the equatorial Atlantic, and the equatorial and central South Indian Oceans. Atmospheric iron may be an important nutrient in certain open regions. Future changes will likely occur if there are changing patterns of aridity and wind speed as a result of climate change. The most important future effects on surface ocean p CO2 will likely be caused by changes in ocean circulation. The pH of the ocean would decrease by ∼0.3 units for a doubling of p CO2 , reducing the capacity of the ocean to take up CO 2 . There is increasing evidence that dimethyl sulfide from the ocean is a source of cloud condensation nuclei and thus a factor controlling cloud albedo. By 2060 in the southern hemisphere reduction in total column stratospheric ozone from recent levels could reach 2 to 5% in the tropics, 10% at mid latitudes, and over 20% at 60 deg C. S. In this same time frame increases in ground-level effective UV-B radiation could reach 5%, 26% and 66%, at low, mid, and high latitudes in the southern hemisphere. Changes in
Biodiversity Meets the Atmosphere: A Global View of Forest Canopies
C. M. P. Ozanne; D. Anhuf; S. L. Boulter; M. Keller; R. L. Kitching; C. Korner; F. C. Meinzer; A. W. Mitchell; T. Nakashizuka; P. L. Silva Dias; N. E. Stork; S. J. Wright; M Yoshimura
2003-01-01
The forest canopy is the functional interface between 90% of Earthâs terrestrial biomass and the atmosphere. Multidisciplinary research in the canopy has expanded concepts of global species richness, physiological processes, and the provision of ecosystem services. Trees respond in a species-specific manner to elevated carbon dioxide levels, while climate change...
Satellite Contributions to Global Change Studies
Parkinson, Claire L.
2009-01-01
By providing a global view with a level playing field (no region missed because of unfavorable surface conditions or political boundaries), satellites have made major contributions to improved monitoring and understanding of our constantly changing planet. The global view has allowed surprising realizations like the relative sparsity of lightning strikes over oceans and the large-scale undulations on the massive Antarctic ice sheet. It has allowed the tracking of all sorts of phenomena, including aerosols, both natural and anthropogenic, as they move with the atmospheric circulation and impact weather and human health. But probably nothing that the global view allows is more important in the long term than its provision. of unbiased data sets to address the issue of global change, considered by many to be among the most important issues facing humankind today. With satellites we can monitor atmospheric temperatures at all latitudes and longitudes, and obtain a global average that lessens the likelihood of becoming endlessly mired in the confusions brought about by the certainty of regional differences. With satellites we can monitor greenhouse gases such as CO2 not just above individual research stations but around the globe. With satellites we can monitor the polar sea ice covers, as we have done since the late 1970s, determining and quantifying the significant reduction in Arctic sea ice and the slight growth in Antarctic sea ice over that period, With satellites we can map the full extent and changes in the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletions that were first identified from using a single ground station; and through satellite data we have witnessed from afar land surface changes brought about by humans both intentionally, as with wide-scale deforestation, and unintentionally, as with the decay of the Aral Sea. The satellite data are far from sufficient for all that we need in order to understand the global system and forecast its changes, as we also need
Atlas of the global distribution of atmospheric heating during the global weather experiment
Schaack, Todd K.; Johnson, Donald R.
1991-01-01
Global distributions of atmospheric heating for the annual cycle of the Global Weather Experiment are estimated from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Level 3b data set. Distributions of monthly, seasonally, and annually averaged heating are presented for isentropic and isobaric layers within the troposphere and for the troposphere as a whole. The distributions depict a large-scale structure of atmospheric heating that appears spatially and temporally consistent with known features of the global circulation and the seasonal evolution.
Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere.
Santer, Benjamin D; Painter, Jeffrey F; Bonfils, Céline; Mears, Carl A; Solomon, Susan; Wigley, Tom M L; Gleckler, Peter J; Schmidt, Gavin A; Doutriaux, Charles; Gillett, Nathan P; Taylor, Karl E; Thorne, Peter W; Wentz, Frank J
2013-10-22
Since the late 1970s, satellite-based instruments have monitored global changes in atmospheric temperature. These measurements reveal multidecadal tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, punctuated by short-term volcanic signals of reverse sign. Similar long- and short-term temperature signals occur in model simulations driven by human-caused changes in atmospheric composition and natural variations in volcanic aerosols. Most previous comparisons of modeled and observed atmospheric temperature changes have used results from individual models and individual observational records. In contrast, we rely on a large multimodel archive and multiple observational datasets. We show that a human-caused latitude/altitude pattern of atmospheric temperature change can be identified with high statistical confidence in satellite data. Results are robust to current uncertainties in models and observations. Virtually all previous research in this area has attempted to discriminate an anthropogenic signal from internal variability. Here, we present evidence that a human-caused signal can also be identified relative to the larger "total" natural variability arising from sources internal to the climate system, solar irradiance changes, and volcanic forcing. Consistent signal identification occurs because both internal and total natural variability (as simulated by state-of-the-art models) cannot produce sustained global-scale tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling. Our results provide clear evidence for a discernible human influence on the thermal structure of the atmosphere.
Human dimensions of global change: Toward a research agenda
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Burton, I.
1991-01-01
The Earth's environment is being transformed by human activity. Human activity, in turn, is being affected by these transformations. This interaction is being studied under the aegis of global change in the geosphere-biosphere. The purpose here is to explore the basis for and the substance of a proposed research program focused on the human dimensions of global change. Global warming due to the greenhouse effect, CO2 reduction, environment impacts, land use management, and the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere are among the topics covered
Galle, Bo; Arellano, Santiago; Conde, Vladimir
2015-04-01
NOVAC, the Network for Observation of Volcanic and Atmospheric Change, was initiated in 2005 as a 5-years-long project financed by the European Union. Its main purpose is to create a global network for the study of volcanic atmospheric plumes and related geophysical phenomena by using state-of-the-art spectroscopic remote sensing technology. Up to 2014, 67 instruments have been installed at 25 volcanoes in 13 countries of Latin America, Italy, Democratic Republic of Congo, Reunion, Iceland, and Philippines, and efforts are being done to expand the network to other active volcanic zones. NOVAC has been a pioneer initiative in the community of volcanologists and embraces the objectives of the Word Organization of Volcano Observatories (WOVO) and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). In this contribution, we present the results of the measurements of SO2 gas fluxes carried out within NOVAC, which for some volcanoes represent a record of more than 8 years of semi-continuous monitoring. The network comprises some of the most strongly degassing volcanoes in the world, covering a broad range of tectonic settings, levels of unrest, and potential risk. Examples of correlations with seismicity and other geophysical phenomena, environmental impact studies and comparisons with previous global estimates will be discussed as well as the significance of the database for further studies in volcanology and other geosciences.
Galle, B.; Arellano, S.; Norman, P.; Conde, V.
2012-04-01
NOVAC, the Network for Observation of Volcanic and Atmospheric Change, was initiated in 2005 as a 5-year-long project financed by the European Union. Its main purpose is to create a global network for the monitoring and research of volcanic atmospheric plumes and related geophysical phenomena by using state-of-the-art spectroscopic remote sensing technology. Up to 2012, 64 instruments have been installed at 24 volcanoes in 13 countries of Latin America, Italy, Democratic Republic of Congo, Reunion, Iceland, and Philippines, and efforts are being done to expand the network to other active volcanic zones. NOVAC has been a pioneer initiative in the community of volcanologists and embraces the objectives of the Word Organization of Volcano Observatories (WOVO) and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). In this contribution, we present the results of the measurements of SO2 gas fluxes carried out within NOVAC, which for some volcanoes represent a record of more than 7 years of continuous monitoring. The network comprises some of the most strongly degassing volcanoes in the world, covering a broad range of tectonic settings, levels of unrest, and potential risk. We show a global perspective of the output of volcanic gas from the covered regions, specific trends of degassing for a few selected volcanoes, and the significance of the database for further studies in volcanology and other geosciences.
NOAA/NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) Atmospheric Model
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) numerical weather...
Do global change experiments overestimate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems?
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Leuzinger, Sebastian; Luo, Yiqi; Beier, Claus
2011-01-01
In recent decades, many climate manipulation experiments have investigated biosphere responses to global change. These experiments typically examined effects of elevated atmospheric CO2, warming or drought (driver variables) on ecosystem processes such as the carbon and water cycle (response...... of the responses to decline with higher-order interactions, longer time periods and larger spatial scales. This means that on average, both positive and negative global change impacts on the biosphere might be dampened more than previously assumed....
Decadal Changes in Global Ocean Annual Primary Production
Gregg, Watson; Conkright, Margarita E.; Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Ginoux, Paul; Casey, Nancy W.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)
2002-01-01
The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) has produced the first multi-year time series of global ocean chlorophyll observations since the demise of the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) in 1986. Global observations from 1997-present from SeaWiFS combined with observations from 1979-1986 from the CZCS should in principle provide an opportunity to observe decadal changes in global ocean annual primary production, since chlorophyll is the primary driver for estimates of primary production. However, incompatibilities between algorithms have so far precluded quantitative analysis. We have developed and applied compatible processing methods for the CZCS, using modern advances in atmospheric correction and consistent bio-optical algorithms to advance the CZCS archive to comparable quality with SeaWiFS. We applied blending methodologies, where in situ data observations are incorporated into the CZCS and SeaWiFS data records, to provide improvement of the residuals. These re-analyzed, blended data records provide maximum compatibility and permit, for the first time, a quantitative analysis of the changes in global ocean primary production in the early-to-mid 1980's and the present, using synoptic satellite observations. An intercomparison of the global and regional primary production from these blended satellite observations is important to understand global climate change and the effects on ocean biota. Photosynthesis by chlorophyll-containing phytoplankton is responsible for biotic uptake of carbon in the oceans and potentially ultimately from the atmosphere. Global ocean annual primary decreased from the CZCS record to SeaWiFS, by nearly 6% from the early 1980s to the present. Annual primary production in the high latitudes was responsible for most of the decadal change. Conversely, primary production in the low latitudes generally increased, with the exception of the tropical Pacific. The differences and similarities of the two data records provide evidence
Global atmospheric particle formation from CERN CLOUD measurements
Dunne, E M; Kurten, A; Almeida, J; Duplissy, J; Williamson, C; Ortega, I K; Pringle, K J; Adamov, A; Baltensperger, U; Barmet, P; Benduhn, F; Bianchi, F; Breitenlechner, M; Clarke, A; Curtius, J; Dommen, J; Donahue, N M; Ehrhart, S; Flagan, R C; Franchin, A; Guida, R; Hakala, J; Hansel, A; Heinritzi, M; Jokinen, T; Kangasluoma, J; Kirkby, J; Kulmala, M; Kupc, A; Lawler, M J; Lehtipalo, K; Makhmutov, V; Mann, G; Mathot, S; Merikanto, J; Miettinen, P; Nenes, A; Onnela, A; Rap, A; Reddington, C L S; Riccobono, F; Richards, N A D; Rissanen, M P; Rondo, L; Sarnela, N; Schobesberger, S; Sengupta, K; Simon, M; Sipila, M; Smith, J N; Stozkhov, Y; Tome, A; Trostl, J; Wagner, P E; Wimmer, D; Winkler, P M; Worsnop, D R; Carslaw, K S
2016-01-01
Fundamental questions remain about the origin of newly formed atmospheric aerosol particles because data from laboratory measurements have been insufficient to build global models. In contrast, gas-phase chemistry models have been based on laboratory kinetics measurements for decades. Here we build a global model of aerosol formation using extensive laboratory-measured nucleation rates involving sulfuric acid, ammonia, ions and organic compounds. The simulations and a comparison with atmospheric observations show that nearly all nucleation throughout the present-day atmosphere involves ammonia or biogenic organic compounds in addition to sulfuric acid. A significant fraction of nucleation involves ions, but the relatively weak dependence on ion concentrations indicates that for the processes studied variations in cosmic ray intensity do not significantly affect climate via nucleation in the present-day atmosphere.
EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON CORAL REEF ECOSYSTEMS
Corals and coral reefs of the Caribbean and through the world are deteriorating at an accelerated rate. Several stressors are believed to contrbute to this decline, including global changes in atmospheric gases and land use patterns. In particular, warmer water temperatures and...
Potential global climate change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anon.
1994-01-01
Global economic integration and growth contribute much to the construction of energy plants, vehicles and other industrial products that produces carbon emission and in effect cause the destruction of the environment. A coordinated policy and response worldwide to curb emissions and to effect global climate change must be introduced. Improvement in scientific understanding is required to monitor how much emission reduction is necessary. In the near term, especially in the next seven years, sustained research and development for low carbon or carbon-free energy is necessary. Other measures must also be introduced, such as limiting the use of vehicles, closing down inefficient power plants, etc. In the long term, the use of the electric car, use solar energy, etc. is required. Reforestation must also be considered to absorb large amounts of carbon in the atmosphere
Coupling of magnetospheric electrical effects into the global atmospheric electrical circuit
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hays, P.B.; Roble, R.G.
1979-01-01
A quasi-static model of global atmospheric electricity has been constructed (Hays and Roble, 1978) to study the electrical processes in the lower atmosphere and the coupling between solar- and upper- atmosphere-induced variations superimposed upon the global electrical circuit. The paper reviews the essential features of this model and discusses the results obtained thus far on the effects of magnetospheric convection and substorms on the global atmospheric electrical circuit. A schematic diagram of the global quasi-static model is given. It is assumed that thunderstorms act as dipole generators, each with a positive center at the top of the cloud and a negative center a few kilometers lower than the positive center
Natural resources management in an era of global change
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sommers, W.T. [USDA Forest Service, Washington, DC (United States)
1993-12-31
The international science community has issued a series of predictions of global atmospheric change that, if they verify, will have heretofore unexperienced impact on our forests. Convincing the public and their natural resource managers to respond to these effects must be high on the agenda of the science community. Mitigative and adapative responses we examine and propose, however, should stem from an understanding of the evolving role of the natural resource manager and how that role might be affected by global change.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide and the global carbon cycle
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Trabalka, J R [ed.
1985-12-01
This state-of-the-art volume presents discussions on the global cycle of carbon, the dynamic balance among global atmospheric CO2 sources and sinks. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the individual papers. (ACR)
The atmosphere as a global commons : responsible caring and equitable sharing
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hallman, D.G. [World Council of Churches, Toronto, ON (Canada)
2000-06-01
The World Council of Churches (WCC) views climate change issues from a theological and ethical perspective. This justice statement regarding climate change was prepared by the WCC in anticipation of the sixth session of the Conference of Parties (COP6) held in the Hague, Netherlands in November 2000. The statement presents the atmosphere as a global commons which envelops the Earth, nurturing and protecting life. Their statement urges that economic and political powers cannot be allowed to hinder the health of the atmosphere nor claim possession of it. The WCC pairs human responsibility with climate change and recognizes that the problem is caused largely by rich industrialized countries, the consequences of which will be suffered mostly by developing nations and by future generations. The statement emphasized that we must be held responsible for the destructive impact of our actions which are leading to climate change. The WCC argued that emissions trading under the Kyoto Protocol would violate the criterion of ecological effectiveness because it would not ensure a reduction in actual emissions. Trading mechanisms such as proposed under the Clean Development Mechanism would raise issues of equity and justice and would risk exacerbating inequities between rich and poor countries. The WCC made several recommendations for COP6. One of them was to refocus climate change negotiations on to options that meet the criteria of environmental effectiveness, equity, responsibility and economic efficiency with priority given to emissions reduction strategies in high per capita polluting countries. This statement also made reference to the use of a Global Atmospheric Commons Fund which would help impoverished countries to move towards a non-carbon economy focusing on renewable energy sources such as solar, biomass, wind and small scale hydroelectric.
Pagnutti, Mary; Holekamp, Kara; Stewart, Randy; Vaughan, Ronald D.
2006-01-01
This Rapid Prototyping Capability study explores the potential to use atmospheric profiles derived from GPS (Global Positioning System) radio occultation measurements and by AIRS (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder) onboard the Aqua satellite to improve surface temperature retrieval from remotely sensed thermal imagery. This study demonstrates an example of a cross-cutting decision support technology whereby NASA data or models are shown to improve a wide number of observation systems or models. The ability to use one data source to improve others will be critical to the GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems) where a large number of potentially useful systems will require auxiliary datasets as input for decision support. Atmospheric correction of thermal imagery decouples TOA radiance and separates surface emission from atmospheric emission and absorption. Surface temperature can then be estimated from the surface emission with knowledge of its emissivity. Traditionally, radiosonde sounders or atmospheric models based on radiosonde sounders, such as the NOAA (National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration) ARL (Air Resources Laboratory) READY (Real-time Environmental Application and Display sYstem), provide the atmospheric profiles required to perform atmospheric correction. Unfortunately, these types of data are too spatially sparse and too infrequently taken. The advent of high accuracy, global coverage, atmospheric data using GPS radio occultation and AIRS may provide a new avenue for filling data input gaps. In this study, AIRS and GPS radio occultation derived atmospheric profiles from the German Aerospace Center CHAMP (CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload), the Argentinean Commission on Space Activities SAC-C (Satellite de Aplicaciones Cientificas-C), and the pair of NASA GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites are used as input data in atmospheric radiative transport modeling based on the MODTRAN (MODerate resolution atmospheric
Terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change: A research strategy
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
1998-09-01
Uncertainty about the magnitude of global change effects on terrestrial ecosystems and consequent feedbacks to the atmosphere impedes sound policy planning at regional, national, and global scales. A strategy to reduce these uncertainties must include a substantial increase in funding for large-scale ecosystem experiments and a careful prioritization of research efforts. Prioritization criteria should be based on the magnitude of potential changes in environmental properties of concern to society, including productivity; biodiversity; the storage and cycling of carbon, water, and nutrients; and sensitivity of specific ecosystems to environmental change. A research strategy is proposed that builds on existing knowledge of ecosystem responses to global change by (1) expanding the spatial and temporal scale of experimental ecosystem manipulations to include processes known to occur at large scales and over long time periods; (2) quantifying poorly understood linkages among processes through the use of experiments that manipulate multiple interacting environmental factors over a broader range of relevant conditions than did past experiments; and (3) prioritizing ecosystems for major experimental manipulations on the basis of potential positive and negative impacts on ecosystem properties and processes of intrinsic and/or utilitarian value to humans and on feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1993-01-01
Expanding economic and technological activities of mankind are contributing to rapid and potentially stressful changes in the global ecosystem. These changes may have harmful, far-reaching consequences in the near future. The current changes in the global ecosystem are also affecting the hydrological cycle. Environmental isotopes, whose distribution in natural compounds is governed by environmental conditions, are among the most powerful tools for investigating past and current environmental changes. Thorough understanding of the past environment is a prerequisite for any meaningful prediction of the Earth's ecosystem behaviour. Important conclusions on past environment conditions can be derived from the analysis of isotope ratios preserved in various environmental archives. The present worked covers both the 'present' and the 'past' of the global atmosphere/hydrosphere system. The presentations were organized in five major topics: (i) isotopes in atmospheric studies; (ii) isotopes in the soil-plants-atmosphere system; (iii) degradation of water resources; (iv) palaeohydrology and palaeowaters; and (v) isotope indicators of climatic changes. Refs, figs and tabs
Global atmospheric particle formation from CERN CLOUD measurements.
Dunne, Eimear M; Gordon, Hamish; Kürten, Andreas; Almeida, João; Duplissy, Jonathan; Williamson, Christina; Ortega, Ismael K; Pringle, Kirsty J; Adamov, Alexey; Baltensperger, Urs; Barmet, Peter; Benduhn, Francois; Bianchi, Federico; Breitenlechner, Martin; Clarke, Antony; Curtius, Joachim; Dommen, Josef; Donahue, Neil M; Ehrhart, Sebastian; Flagan, Richard C; Franchin, Alessandro; Guida, Roberto; Hakala, Jani; Hansel, Armin; Heinritzi, Martin; Jokinen, Tuija; Kangasluoma, Juha; Kirkby, Jasper; Kulmala, Markku; Kupc, Agnieszka; Lawler, Michael J; Lehtipalo, Katrianne; Makhmutov, Vladimir; Mann, Graham; Mathot, Serge; Merikanto, Joonas; Miettinen, Pasi; Nenes, Athanasios; Onnela, Antti; Rap, Alexandru; Reddington, Carly L S; Riccobono, Francesco; Richards, Nigel A D; Rissanen, Matti P; Rondo, Linda; Sarnela, Nina; Schobesberger, Siegfried; Sengupta, Kamalika; Simon, Mario; Sipilä, Mikko; Smith, James N; Stozkhov, Yuri; Tomé, Antonio; Tröstl, Jasmin; Wagner, Paul E; Wimmer, Daniela; Winkler, Paul M; Worsnop, Douglas R; Carslaw, Kenneth S
2016-12-02
Fundamental questions remain about the origin of newly formed atmospheric aerosol particles because data from laboratory measurements have been insufficient to build global models. In contrast, gas-phase chemistry models have been based on laboratory kinetics measurements for decades. We built a global model of aerosol formation by using extensive laboratory measurements of rates of nucleation involving sulfuric acid, ammonia, ions, and organic compounds conducted in the CERN CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets) chamber. The simulations and a comparison with atmospheric observations show that nearly all nucleation throughout the present-day atmosphere involves ammonia or biogenic organic compounds, in addition to sulfuric acid. A considerable fraction of nucleation involves ions, but the relatively weak dependence on ion concentrations indicates that for the processes studied, variations in cosmic ray intensity do not appreciably affect climate through nucleation in the present-day atmosphere. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Providing Global Change Information for Decision-Making: Capturing and Presenting Provenance
Ma, Xiaogang; Fox, Peter; Tilmes, Curt; Jacobs, Katherine; Waple, Anne
2014-01-01
Global change information demands access to data sources and well-documented provenance to provide evidence needed to build confidence in scientific conclusions and, in specific applications, to ensure the information's suitability for use in decision-making. A new generation of Web technology, the Semantic Web, provides tools for that purpose. The topic of global change covers changes in the global environment (including alterations in climate, land productivity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric composition and or chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life and support human systems. Data and findings associated with global change research are of great public, government, and academic concern and are used in policy and decision-making, which makes the provenance of global change information especially important. In addition, since different types of decisions benefit from different types of information, understanding how to capture and present the provenance of global change information is becoming more of an imperative in adaptive planning.
Future changes of the atmospheric composition and the impact of climate change
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Grewe, V.; Dameris, M.; Hein, R.; Sausen, R. [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Wessling (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Steil, B. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Chemie (Otto-Hahn-Institut), Mainz (Germany). Abt. Chemie der Atmosphaere
1999-05-01
The development of the future atmospheric chemical composition, with respect of NO{sub y} and O{sub 3} is investigated by means of the off-line coupled dynamic-chemical general circulation model ECHAM3/CHEM. Two time slice experiments have been performed for the years 1992 and 2015, which include changes in sea surface temperatures, greenhouse gas concentrations, emissions of CFCs, NO{sub x} and other species, i.e., the 2015 simulation accounts for changes in chemically relevant emissions and for a climate change and its impact on air chemistry. The 2015 simulation clearly shows a global increase in ozone except for large areas of the lower stratosphere, where no significant changes or even decreases in the ozone concentration are found. For a better understanding of the importance of (A) emissions like NO{sub x} and CFCs, (B) future changes of air temperature and water vapour concentration, and (C) other dynamic parameters, like precipitation and changes in the circulation, i.e. wind speed, diabatic circulation, stratosphere-troposphere-exchange, the simulation of the future atmosphere has been performed stepwise. This method requires a climate-chemistry model without interactive coupling of chemical species. Model results show that the direct effect of emissions (A) plays a major role for the composition of the future atmosphere, but they also clearly show that climate change has a significant impact and strongly reduces the NO{sub y} and ozone concentration in the lower stratosphere. (orig.)
The increased atmospheric greenhouse effect and regional climate change
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Groenaas, S. [Bergen Univ. (Norway)
1996-03-01
This paper was read at the workshop ``The Norwegian Climate and Ozone Research Programme`` held on 11-12 March 1996. The main information for predicting future climate changes comes from integrating coupled climate models of the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere. Regional climate change may be studied from the global integrations, however, resolution is coarse because of insufficient computer power. Attempts are being made to get more regional details out of the global integrations by ``downscaling`` the latter. This can be done in two ways. Firstly, limited area models with high resolution are applied, driven by the global results as boundary values. Secondly, statistical relationships have been found between observed meteorological parameters, like temperature and precipitation, and analyzed large scale gridded fields. The derived relations are then used on similar data from climate runs to give local interpretations. A review is given of literature on recent observations of climate variations and on predicted regional climate change. 18 refs., 4 figs.
Observational constraints on the global atmospheric budget of ethanol
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
V. Naik
2010-06-01
Full Text Available Energy security and climate change concerns have led to the promotion of biomass-derived ethanol, an oxygenated volatile organic compound (OVOC, as a substitute for fossil fuels. Although ethanol is ubiquitous in the troposphere, our knowledge of its current atmospheric budget and distribution is limited. Here, for the first time we use a global chemical transport model in conjunction with atmospheric observations to place constraints on the ethanol budget, noting that additional measurements of ethanol (and its precursors are still needed to enhance confidence in our estimated budget. Global sources of ethanol in the model include 5.0 Tg yr−1 from industrial sources and biofuels, 9.2 Tg yr−1 from terrestrial plants, ~0.5 Tg yr−1 from biomass burning, and 0.05 Tg yr−1 from atmospheric reactions of the ethyl peroxy radical (C2H5O2 with itself and with the methyl peroxy radical (CH3O2. The resulting atmospheric lifetime of ethanol in the model is 2.8 days. Gas-phase oxidation by the hydroxyl radical (OH is the primary global sink of ethanol in the model (65%, followed by dry deposition (25%, and wet deposition (10%. Over continental areas, ethanol concentrations predominantly reflect direct anthropogenic and biogenic emission sources. Uncertainty in the biogenic ethanol emissions, estimated at a factor of three, may contribute to the 50% model underestimate of observations in the North American boundary layer. Current levels of ethanol measured in remote regions are an order of magnitude larger than those in the model, suggesting a major gap in understanding. Stronger constraints on the budget and distribution of ethanol and OVOCs are a critical step towards assessing the impacts of increasing the use of ethanol as a fuel.
Global Change Research Related to the Earth's Energy and Hydrologic Cycle
1998-01-01
The Institute for Global Change Research and Education (IGCRE) is a joint initiative of the Universities Space Research Association (USRA) and the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) for coordinating and facilitating research and education relevant to global environmental change. Created in 1992 with primary support from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), IGCRE fosters participation by university, private sector and government scientists who seek to develop long-term collaborative research in global change science, focusing on the role of water and energy in the Earth's atmosphere and physical climate system. IGCRE is also chartered to address educational needs of Earth system and global change science, including the preparation of future scientists and training of primary and secondary education teachers.
Effects of global change during the 21st century onthe nitrogen cycle
Fowler, D.; Steadman, C. E.; Stevenson, D.; Coyle, M.; Rees, R. M.; Skiba, U. M.; Sutton, M. A.; Cape, J. N.; Dore, A. J.; Vieno, M.; Simpson, D.; Zaehle, S.; Stocker, B. D.; Rinaldi, M.; Facchini, M. C.; Flechard, C. R.; Nemitz, E.; Twigg, M.; Erisman, J. W.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Galloway, J. N.
2015-12-01
The global nitrogen (N) cycle at the beginning of the 21st century has been shown to be strongly influenced by the inputs of reactive nitrogen (Nr) from human activities, including combustion-related NOx, industrial and agricultural N fixation, estimated to be 220 Tg N yr-1 in 2010, which is approximately equal to the sum of biological N fixation in unmanaged terrestrial and marine ecosystems. According to current projections, changes in climate and land use during the 21st century will increase both biological and anthropogenic fixation, bringing the total to approximately 600 Tg N yr-1 by around 2100. The fraction contributed directly by human activities is unlikely to increase substantially if increases in nitrogen use efficiency in agriculture are achieved and control measures on combustion-related emissions implemented. Some N-cycling processes emerge as particularly sensitive to climate change. One of the largest responses to climate in the processing of Nr is the emission to the atmosphere of NH3, which is estimated to increase from 65 Tg N yr-1 in 2008 to 93 Tg N yr-1 in 2100 assuming a change in global surface temperature of 5 °C in the absence of increased anthropogenic activity. With changes in emissions in response to increased demand for animal products the combined effect would be to increase NH3 emissions to 135 Tg N yr-1. Another major change is the effect of climate changes on aerosol composition and specifically the increased sublimation of NH4NO3 close to the ground to form HNO3 and NH3 in a warmer climate, which deposit more rapidly to terrestrial surfaces than aerosols. Inorganic aerosols over the polluted regions especially in Europe and North America were dominated by (NH4)2SO4 in the 1970s to 1980s, and large reductions in emissions of SO2 have removed most of the SO42- from the atmosphere in these regions. Inorganic aerosols from anthropogenic emissions are now dominated by NH4NO3, a volatile aerosol which contributes substantially to PM10
Biological diversity, ecology and global climate change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jutro, P.R.
1991-01-01
Worldwide climate change and loss of biodiversity are issues of global scope and importance that have recently become subjects of considerable public concern. Their perceived threat lies in their potential to disrupt ecological functioning and stability rather than from any direct threat they may pose to human health. Over the last 5 years, the international scientific community and the general public have become aware of the implications that atmospheric warming might have for world climate patterns and the resulting changes in the persistence, location, and composition of ecosystems worldwide. Human activities are currently responsible for a species loss rate that is the most extreme in millions of years, and an alarmingly increasing rate of transformation and fragmentation of natural landscapes. In the case of both global warming and reduction of biological diversity, man is affecting nature in an unprecedented fashion, on a global scale, and with unpredictable and frequently irreversible results
Solar atmosphere wave dynamics generated by solar global oscillating eigenmodes
Griffiths, M. K.; Fedun, V.; Erdélyi, R.; Zheng, R.
2018-01-01
The solar atmosphere exhibits a diverse range of wave phenomena, where one of the earliest discovered was the five-minute global acoustic oscillation, also referred to as the p-mode. The analysis of wave propagation in the solar atmosphere may be used as a diagnostic tool to estimate accurately the physical characteristics of the Sun's atmospheric layers. In this paper, we investigate the dynamics and upward propagation of waves which are generated by the solar global eigenmodes. We report on a series of hydrodynamic simulations of a realistically stratified model of the solar atmosphere representing its lower region from the photosphere to low corona. With the objective of modelling atmospheric perturbations, propagating from the photosphere into the chromosphere, transition region and low corona, generated by the photospheric global oscillations the simulations use photospheric drivers mimicking the solar p-modes. The drivers are spatially structured harmonics across the computational box parallel to the solar surface. The drivers perturb the atmosphere at 0.5 Mm above the bottom boundary of the model and are placed coincident with the location of the temperature minimum. A combination of the VALIIIC and McWhirter solar atmospheres are used as the background equilibrium model. We report how synthetic photospheric oscillations may manifest in a magnetic field free model of the quiet Sun. To carry out the simulations, we employed the magnetohydrodynamics code, SMAUG (Sheffield MHD Accelerated Using GPUs). Our results show that the amount of energy propagating into the solar atmosphere is consistent with a model of solar global oscillations described by Taroyan and Erdélyi (2008) using the Klein-Gordon equation. The computed results indicate a power law which is compared to observations reported by Ireland et al. (2015) using data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly.
Global changes and the air-sea exchange of chemicals. Reports and studies. No. 48
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
GESAMP-IMO/FAO/UNESCO/WMO/WHO/IAEA/UN/UNEP Joint Group of Experts on the Scientific Aspects of Marine Pollution
1992-12-31
Present and future changes to global environment have implications for marine pollution and for air-sea exchange of both anthropogenic and natural substances. This report addresses 3 issues related to potential impact of global change on air-sea exchange of chemicals: Global change and air-sea transfer of nutrients nitrogen and iron. Global change and air-sea exchange of gases. Oceanic responses to radiative and oxidative changes in atmosphere. Deposition of atmospheric anthropogenic nitrogen has probably increased bio- productivity in coastal regions along continental margins. Atmospheric deposition of new nitrogen may also have increased productivity somewhat in mid-ocean regions. Projected future increases of N oxide emissions from Asia, Africa and South America will increase the rate of deposition of oxidized nitrogen to central North Pacific, equatorial Atlantic, and equatorial and central South Indian Oceans. Atmospheric iron may be an important nutrient in certain open regions. Future changes will likely occur from changed aridity and wind speed as a result of climate change. The most important future effects on surface ocean p{sub CO2} will likely be caused by changes in ocean circulation. The pH of ocean would decrease by {approx}0.3 units for a doubling of p{sub CO2}, reducing the capacity of the ocean to take up CO{sub 2}. There is evidence that dimethyl sulfide from ocean is a source of cloud condensation nuclei and thus a factor controlling cloud albedo. By 2060 in the southern hemisphere reduction in total column stratospheric ozone from recent levels could reach 2 to 5% in the tropics, 10% at mid latitudes, and over 20% at 60 deg C. S. Increases in ground-level effective UV-B radiation could also reach 5%, 26% and 66%, at low, mid, and high latitudes in southern hemisphere. Changes in photochemical processes in the surface waters of the ocean could also happen.
New ecology, global change, and forest politics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sampson, N.
1993-01-01
Ecosystems constantly change. Some changes are caused by natural conditions that evolve at a very slow pace including climate change, species evolution and migration, and soil formation. Forests don't always respond to gradual changes in gradual ways, though gradual change may be hidden for years within the normal variation in the ecosystem. The industrial age has resulted in a rapid and continuing buildup of atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbons which trap heat in the greenhouse effect. Industrial processes also emit oxides of nitrogen and sulfur that change atmospheric chemistry and alter the nutrient input into ecosystems. Natural forests face a hard time adjusting to a rate of climatic change that is 3 to 10 times faster than species can migrate and that increases the occurrence of major windstorms. In the forest ecosystem where trees are removed or destroyed under rapid climatic change, conditions may not return to their original state, even if we try to restore it. When the ecosystem changes faster than the bureaucracy of the management agency, a serious problem exists. New understandings of ecology and global change may force new ways of thinking in these situations
Hu, Shujuan; Cheng, Jianbo; Xu, Ming; Chou, Jifan
2018-04-01
The three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation (TPDGAC) partitions three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric circulation into horizontal, meridional and zonal components to study the 3D structures of global atmospheric circulation. This paper incorporates the three-pattern decomposition model (TPDM) into primitive equations of atmospheric dynamics and establishes a new set of dynamical equations of the horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations in which the operator properties are studied and energy conservation laws are preserved, as in the primitive equations. The physical significance of the newly established equations is demonstrated. Our findings reveal that the new equations are essentially the 3D vorticity equations of atmosphere and that the time evolution rules of the horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations can be described from the perspective of 3D vorticity evolution. The new set of dynamical equations includes decomposed expressions that can be used to explore the source terms of large-scale atmospheric circulation variations. A simplified model is presented to demonstrate the potential applications of the new equations for studying the dynamics of the Rossby, Hadley and Walker circulations. The model shows that the horizontal air temperature anomaly gradient (ATAG) induces changes in meridional and zonal circulations and promotes the baroclinic evolution of the horizontal circulation. The simplified model also indicates that the absolute vorticity of the horizontal circulation is not conserved, and its changes can be described by changes in the vertical vorticities of the meridional and zonal circulations. Moreover, the thermodynamic equation shows that the induced meridional and zonal circulations and advection transport by the horizontal circulation in turn cause a redistribution of the air temperature. The simplified model reveals the fundamental rules between the evolution of the air temperature and the horizontal, meridional
Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Anderson, Bruce T. [Boston University, Department of Geography and Environment, Boston, MA (United States); Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Deser, Clara; Phillips, Adam S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); Cherchi, Annalisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, and Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)
2010-12-15
Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed. (orig.)
Regional to global changes in drought and implications for future changes under global warming
Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Kam, J.
2012-12-01
Drought can have large impacts on multiple sectors, including agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, transport, industry and tourism. In extreme cases, regional drought can lead to food insecurity and famine, and in intensive agricultural regions, extend to global economic impacts in a connected world. Recent droughts globally have been severe and costly but whether they are becoming more frequent and severe, and the attribution of this, is a key question. Observational evidence at large scales, such as satellite remote sensing are often subject to short-term records and inhomogeneities, and ground based data are sparse in many regions. Reliance on model output is also subject to error and simplifications in the model physics that can, for example, amplify the impact of global warming on drought. This presentation will show the observational and model evidence for changes in drought, with a focus on the interplay between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand and its impact on the terrestrial water cycle and drought. We discuss the fidelity of climate models to reproduce our best estimates of drought variability and its drivers historically, and the implications of this on uncertainties in future projections of drought from CMIP5 models, and how this has changed since CMIP3.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gugele, B.; Radunsky, K.; Spangl, W.
2002-01-01
In the last decade marked changes of climatic factors have been observed, such as increases in average global earth temperatures, the amount of precipitation and the number of extreme weather events. Green house gases influence the energy flow in the atmosphere by absorbing infra-red radiation. An overview of the Austrian greenhouse gas emissions is given, including statistical data and their major sources. In 1999 the emissions of all six Kyoto greenhouse gases ( CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, HFC s , PFC s and SF 6 ) amounted to 79.2 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalents . A comparison between the EC Members states is also presented. Finally the climate change strategy prepared by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management together with other ministries and the federal provinces is discussed, which main aim is to lead to an annual emission reduction of 16 million tonnes of CO 2 . Figs. 2, Tables 1. (nevyjel)
ISLSCP II GlobalView: Atmospheric Methane Concentrations
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The GlobalView Methane (CH4) data product contains synchronized and smoothed time series of atmospheric CH4 concentrations at selected sites that were...
ISLSCP II GlobalView: Atmospheric Methane Concentrations
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The GlobalView Methane (CH4) data product contains synchronized and smoothed time series of atmospheric CH4 concentrations at selected sites that were created using...
Predicting Earth orientation changes from global forecasts of atmosphere-hydrosphere dynamics
Dobslaw, Henryk; Dill, Robert
2018-02-01
Effective Angular Momentum (EAM) functions obtained from global numerical simulations of atmosphere, ocean, and land surface dynamics are routinely processed by the Earth System Modelling group at Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum. EAM functions are available since January 1976 with up to 3 h temporal resolution. Additionally, 6 days-long EAM forecasts are routinely published every day. Based on hindcast experiments with 305 individual predictions distributed over 15 months, we demonstrate that EAM forecasts improve the prediction accuracy of the Earth Orientation Parameters at all forecast horizons between 1 and 6 days. At day 6, prediction accuracy improves down to 1.76 mas for the terrestrial pole offset, and 2.6 mas for Δ UT1, which correspond to an accuracy increase of about 41% over predictions published in Bulletin A by the International Earth Rotation and Reference System Service.
NASA/MSFC FY90 Global Scale Atmospheric Processes Research Program Review
Leslie, Fred W. (Editor)
1990-01-01
Research supported by the Global Atmospheric Research Program at the Marshall Space Flight Center on atmospheric remote sensing, meteorology, numerical weather forecasting, satellite data analysis, cloud precipitation, atmospheric circulation, atmospheric models and related topics is discussed.
Biocrusts in the context of global change
Reed, Sasha C.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Ochoa-Hueso, Raul; Kuske, Cheryl; Darrouzet-Nardi, Anthony N.; Darby, Brian; Sinsabaugh, Bob; Oliver, Mel; Sancho, Leo; Belnap, Jayne
2016-01-01
A wide range of studies show global environmental change will profoundly affect the structure, function, and dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. The research synthesized here underscores that biocrust communities are also likely to respond significantly to global change drivers, with a large potential for modification to their abundance, composition, and function. We examine how elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate change (increased temperature and altered precipitation), and nitrogen deposition affect biocrusts and the ecosystems they inhabit. We integrate experimental and observational data, as well as physiological, community ecology, and biogeochemical perspectives. Taken together, these data highlight the potential for biocrust organisms to respond dramatically to environmental change and show how changes to biocrust community composition translate into effects on ecosystem function (e.g., carbon and nutrient cycling, soil stability, energy balance). Due to the importance of biocrusts in regulating dryland ecosystem processes and the potential for large modifications to biocrust communities, an improved understanding and predictive capacity regarding biocrust responses to environmental change are of scientific and societal relevance.
The Geosphere - Biosphere international program and the global change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chanin, M.L.
1991-01-01
The objective of the Geosphere-Biosphere International Program (GBIP) is to achieve a correct approach of the various biogeochemical interactions between the different components of the environment (oceans, atmosphere, biosphere). The main themes are: study of the chemical regulation in the global atmosphere and influence of natural and anthropogenic processes on trace element cycles; influence of the oceanic biogeochemical processes on climates and their response to climatic changes; influence of soil utilization modification (especially coastal) on climates and ecosystems; interaction between vegetation and the water cycle; interaction between climatic changes, ecosystems and agricultural productivity; approaches to climate modelling. French component of the GBIP is presented [fr
Chen, Min
period of 2003-2010. Ecosystem heterotrophic respiration (RH) was negatively affected by the aerosol loading. These results support previous conclusions of the advantage of aerosol light scattering effect on plant productions in other studies but suggest there is strong spatial variation. This study finds indirect aerosol effects on terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics through affecting plant phenology, thermal and hydrological environments. All these evidences suggested that the aerosol direct radiative effect on global terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics should be considered to better understand the global carbon cycle and climate change. An ozone sub-model is developed in this dissertation and fully coupled with iTem. The coupled model, named iTemO3 considers the processes of ozone stomatal deposition, plant defense to ozone influx, ozone damage and plant repairing mechanism. By using a global atmospheric chemical transport model (GACTM) estimated ground-level ozone concentration data, the model estimated global annual stomatal ozone deposition is 234.0 Tg O3 yr-1 and indicates which regions have high ozone damage risk. Different plant functional types, sunlit and shaded leaves are shown to have different responses to ozone. The model predictions suggest that ozone has caused considerable change on global terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and carbon exchanges over the study period 2004-2008. The study suggests that uncertainty of the key parameters in iTemO3 could result in large errors in model predictions. Thus more experimental data for better model parameterization is highly needed.
Future Global Mortality from Changes in Air Pollution Attributable to Climate Change
Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd A.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali;
2017-01-01
Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM (sub 2.5)) are associated with premature human mortality; their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term, and on climate change. Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change used single atmospheric models. However, in related studies, mortality results differ among models. Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5, is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14 percent of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM (sub 2.5), we estimate 55,600 (34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16 percent the global decrease in PM (sub 2.5)-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.
Phylogenetic responses of forest trees to global change.
Senior, John K; Schweitzer, Jennifer A; O'Reilly-Wapstra, Julianne; Chapman, Samantha K; Steane, Dorothy; Langley, Adam; Bailey, Joseph K
2013-01-01
In a rapidly changing biosphere, approaches to understanding the ecology and evolution of forest species will be critical to predict and mitigate the effects of anthropogenic global change on forest ecosystems. Utilizing 26 forest species in a factorial experiment with two levels each of atmospheric CO2 and soil nitrogen, we examined the hypothesis that phylogeny would influence plant performance in response to elevated CO2 and nitrogen fertilization. We found highly idiosyncratic responses at the species level. However, significant, among-genetic lineage responses were present across a molecularly determined phylogeny, indicating that past evolutionary history may have an important role in the response of whole genetic lineages to future global change. These data imply that some genetic lineages will perform well and that others will not, depending upon the environmental context.
The changing winds of atmospheric environment policy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Murray, Frank
2013-01-01
from a local to national, regional and global scales. Consequently the approaches to atmospheric environmental policy have also been amended. The international dimensions of atmospheric issues have grown in prominence and challenge governance and politics with pressures for international cooperation and harmonisation of policies. This is reducing the policy flexibility of national governments. Partially in response to these changes, to manage environmental risks and protect their brands, leaders in the corporate sector have generally found it beneficial to increase responsibility and accountability, including establishing corporate environmental policies, environmental management systems, risk management, sustainability reporting and other measures. This analysis clearly identifies that these changes are inter-related. Acting together they have transformed the way that atmospheric issues are governed in the last several decades in developed countries. Together they have led to governments in many developed countries vacating leadership roles and becoming increasingly managers of the policy process. As the leadership role of governments has been partially eroded, governments are more reliant on persuasion and diplomacy in their relations with stakeholders. As a consequence, governance arrangements have become more complex, multilevel and polycentric
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cristina Máguas
2013-04-01
Full Text Available Due to the close linking between the biosphere and atmosphere, there are clear impacts of changes in climate, atmospheric deposition of nutrients/pollutants and land use (Global Changes on the terrestrial biosphere. Lichens, with a direct dependence on atmospheric conditions, are much more affected by their immediate microclimate than by the ecosystem’s prevailing macroclimate. In contrast to higher plants, poikilohydric organisms have different mechanisms of water and CO2 exchange. The application of stable isotopes to the understanding of the mechanisms that are fundamental to lichen gas exchange and water uptake is a promising tool for the evaluation of lichen response to environmental changes. Indeed, lichens have been shown to be influenced by a large number of natural and anthropogenic environmental factors, serving as ecological indicators. Thus, we may use these organisms to model the impact of key global change drivers, such as nitrogen deposition and biodiversity changes, at local scale. Particularly useful is the application of the Lichen Diversity Value (LDV in order to evaluate the impact of global drivers. Moreover, it has been shown that these indices, associated with main photobiont types, green-algae (LDVch or cyanobacteria (LDVcyh, and/or nitrophilous versus oligotrophic species, were good candidates as ecological indicators. Besides mapping with high spatial resolution the effects of climate alterations, lichen functional groups could also be used as an early-warning system in order to detect the first effects of climate change in ecosystems before sudden shifts occur on other components that may be less sensitive. Clearly, lichens possess the adequate traits to be used as powerful indicators of complex interactions between atmosphere and biosphere, and thus can generate potentially interesting models for global change drivers.
Global change integrating factors: Tropical tropopause trends
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reck, R.A.
1994-01-01
This research proposes new criteria, shifts in the height and temperature of the tropical tropopause, as measures of global climate change. The search for signs of global warming in the temperature signal near the earth's surface is extremely difficult, largely because numerous factors contribute to surface temperature forcing with only a small signal-to-noise ratio relative to long-term effects. In the long term, no part of the atmosphere can be considered individually because the evolution will be a function of all states of all portions. A large surface greenhouse signal might ultimately be expected, but the analysis of surface temperature may not be particularly useful for early detection. What is suggested here is not an analysis of trends in the surface temperature field or any of its spatial averages, but rather an integrating factor or integrator, a single measure of global change that could be considered a test of significant change for the entire global system. Preferably, this global change integrator would vary slowly and would take into account many of the causes of climate change, with a relatively large signal-to-noise ratio. Such an integrator could be monitored, and abrupt or accelerated changes could serve as an early warning signal for policy makers and the public. Earlier work has suggested that temperature has much less short-term and small-scale noise in the lower stratosphere, and thus the global warming signal at that level might be more easily deconvoluted, because the cooling rate near the 200-mb level is almost constant with latitude. A study of the temperature signal at this pressure level might show a clearer trend due to increased levels of greenhouse gases, but it would yield information about the troposphere only by inference
Global Changes of the Water Cycle Intensity
Bosilovich, Michael G.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Walker, Gregory K.
2003-01-01
In this study, we evaluate numerical simulations of the twentieth century climate, focusing on the changes in the intensity of the global water cycle. A new diagnostic of atmospheric water vapor cycling rate is developed and employed, that relies on constituent tracers predicted at the model time step. This diagnostic is compared to a simplified traditional calculation of cycling rate, based on monthly averages of precipitation and total water content. The mean sensitivity of both diagnostics to variations in climate forcing is comparable. However, the new diagnostic produces systematically larger values and more variability than the traditional average approach. Climate simulations were performed using SSTs of the early (1902-1921) and late (1979- 1998) twentieth century along with the appropriate C02 forcing. In general, the increase of global precipitation with the increases in SST that occurred between the early and late twentieth century is small. However, an increase of atmospheric temperature leads to a systematic increase in total precipitable water. As a result, the residence time of water in the atmosphere increased, indicating a reduction of the global cycling rate. This result was explored further using a number of 50-year climate simulations from different models forced with observed SST. The anomalies and trends in the cycling rate and hydrologic variables of different GCMs are remarkably similar. The global annual anomalies of precipitation show a significant upward trend related to the upward trend of surface temperature, during the latter half of the twentieth century. While this implies an increase in the hydrologic cycle intensity, a concomitant increase of total precipitable water again leads to a decrease in the calculated global cycling rate. An analysis of the land/sea differences shows that the simulated precipitation over land has a decreasing trend while the oceanic precipitation has an upward trend consistent with previous studies and the
Global Climate Change and Society: Scientific, Policy, and Philosophic Themes
Frodeman, R.; Bullock, M. A.
2001-12-01
The summer of 2001 saw the inauguration of the Global Climate Change and Society Program (GCCS), an eight week, NSF-funded experiment in undergraduate pedagogy held at the University of Colorado and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Acknowledging from the start that climate change is more than a scientific problem, GCCS began with the simultaneous study of basic atmospheric physics, classical and environmental philosophy, and public policy. In addition to lectures and discussions on these subjects, our twelve undergraduates (majoring in the physical sciences, social sciences, and humanities) also participated in internships with scholars and researchers at NCAR, University of Colorado's Center of the American West, and the Colorado School of Mines, on specific issues in atmospheric science, science policy, and ethics and values. This talk will discuss the outcomes of GCCS: specifically, new insights into interdisciplinary pedagogy and the student creation of an extraordinary "deliverable," a group summary assessment of the global climate change debate. The student assessment called for an integrated discussion of both the science of climate change and the human values related to how we inhabit the world. The problems facing society today cannot be addressed through the single-minded adherence to science and technology; instead, society must develop new means of integrating the humanities and science in a meaningful dialogue about our common future.
Climate and atmosphere simulator for experiments on ecological systems in changing environments.
Verdier, Bruno; Jouanneau, Isabelle; Simonnet, Benoit; Rabin, Christian; Van Dooren, Tom J M; Delpierre, Nicolas; Clobert, Jean; Abbadie, Luc; Ferrière, Régis; Le Galliard, Jean-François
2014-01-01
Grand challenges in global change research and environmental science raise the need for replicated experiments on ecosystems subjected to controlled changes in multiple environmental factors. We designed and developed the Ecolab as a variable climate and atmosphere simulator for multifactor experimentation on natural or artificial ecosystems. The Ecolab integrates atmosphere conditioning technology optimized for accuracy and reliability. The centerpiece is a highly contained, 13-m(3) chamber to host communities of aquatic and terrestrial species and control climate (temperature, humidity, rainfall, irradiance) and atmosphere conditions (O2 and CO2 concentrations). Temperature in the atmosphere and in the water or soil column can be controlled independently of each other. All climatic and atmospheric variables can be programmed to follow dynamical trajectories and simulate gradual as well as step changes. We demonstrate the Ecolab's capacity to simulate a broad range of atmospheric and climatic conditions, their diurnal and seasonal variations, and to support the growth of a model terrestrial plant in two contrasting climate scenarios. The adaptability of the Ecolab design makes it possible to study interactions between variable climate-atmosphere factors and biotic disturbances. Developed as an open-access, multichamber platform, this equipment is available to the international scientific community for exploring interactions and feedbacks between ecological and climate systems.
Hot house global climate change and the human condition
Strom, Robert G
2007-01-01
Global warming is addressed by almost all sciences including many aspects of geosciences, atmospheric, the biological sciences, and even astronomy. It has recently become the concern of other diverse disciplines such as economics, agriculture, demographics and population statistics, medicine, engineering, and political science. This book addresses these complex interactions, integrates them, and derives meaningful conclusions and possible solutions. The text provides an easy-to-read explanation of past and present global climate change, causes and possible solutions to the problem, including t
Randerson, J. T.; Xu, L.; Wiggins, E. B.; Chen, Y.; Riley, W. J.; Mekonnen, Z. A.; Pellegrini, A.; Mahowald, N. M.
2017-12-01
Fires are an important process regulating the redistribution of nutrients within terrestrial ecosystems. Frequently burning ecosystems such as savannas are a net source of N and P to the atmosphere each year, with atmospheric transport and dry and wet deposition increasing nutrient availability in downwind ecosystems and over the open ocean. Transport of N and P aerosols from savanna fires within the Hadley circulation contributes to nutrient deposition over tropical forests, yielding an important cross-biome nutrient transfer. Pyrodenitrification of reactive N increases with fire temperature and modified combustion efficiency, generating a global net biospheric loss of approximately 14 Tg N per year. Here we analyze atmospheric N and P redistribution using the Global Fire Emissions Database version 4s and the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy earth system model. We synthesize literature estimates of N and P concentrations in fire-emitted aerosols and ecosystem mass balance measurements to help constrain model estimates of these biosphere-atmosphere fluxes. In our analysis, we estimate the fraction of terrestrial net primary production (NPP) that is sustained by fire-emitted P and reactive N from upwind ecosystems. We then evaluate how recent global declines in burned area in savanna and grassland ecosystems may be changing nutrient availability in downwind ecosystems.
Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale
Pacyna, Jozef M.; Travnikov, Oleg; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pirrone, Nicola; Munthe, John; Kindbom, Karin
2016-10-01
An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013) and future (2035) air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal) for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions), including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year-1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %), followed by biomass burning (9 %). A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT) have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has proved to be a very important
Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. M. Pacyna
2016-10-01
Full Text Available An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013 and future (2035 air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions, including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year−1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %, followed by biomass burning (9 %. A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has
Atmospheric chemistry and physics from air pollution to climate change
Seinfeld, John H
2016-01-01
Expanded and updated with new findings and new features Since the second edition of Seinfeld and Pandis’ classic textbook, significant progress has taken place in the field of atmospheric chemistry and physics, particularly in the areas of tropospheric chemistry, aerosols, and the science of climate change. A new edition of this comprehensive work has been developed by the renowned author team. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 3rd Edition, as the previous two editions have done, provides a rigorous and comprehensive treatment of the chemistry and physics of the atmosphere – including the chemistry of the stratosphere and troposphere, aerosol physics and chemistry, atmospheric new particle formation, physical meteorology, cloud physics, global climate, statistical analysis of data, and mathematical chemical/transport models of the atmosphere. Each of these topics is covered in detail and in each area the central results are developed from first principles. In this way the reader gains a significant un...
Can air pollutant controls change global warming?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Strefler, Jessica; Luderer, Gunnar; Kriegler, Elmar; Meinshausen, Malte
2014-01-01
Highlights: • Air pollution policies do not affect long-term climate targets. • Reduction of aerosols counteracts a fraction of the reduction of Kyoto forcing. • Air pollution policies may affect the rate of climate change in the short term. • There is no tradeoff between clean air and climate policies. - Abstract: In this paper we analyze the interaction between climate and air pollution policies using the integrated assessment model REMIND coupled to the reduced-form climate model MAGICC. Since overall, aerosols tend to cool the atmosphere, there is a concern that a reduction of pollutant emissions could accelerate global warming and offset the climate benefits of carbon dioxide emission reductions. We investigate scenarios which independently reduce emissions from either large-scale sources, such as power plants, or small-scale sources, such as cooking and heating stoves. Large-scale sources are likely to be easier to control, but their aerosol emissions are characterized by a relatively high sulfur content, which tends to result in atmospheric cooling. Pollution from small-scale sources, by contrast, is characterized by a high share of carbonaceous aerosol, which is an important contributor to global warming. We find that air pollution policies can significantly reduce aerosol emissions when no climate policies are in place. Stringent climate policies lead to a large reduction of fossil fuel use, and therefore result in a concurrent reduction of air pollutant emissions. These reductions partly reduce aerosol masking, thus initially counteracting the reduction of greenhouse gas forcing, however not overcompensating it. If climate policies are in place, air pollution policies have almost no impacts on medium- and long-term radiative forcing. Therefore there is no conflict of objectives between clean air and limiting global warming. We find that the stringency of air pollution policies may influence the rate of global temperature change in the first decade
TRENDS 1991: A compendium of data on global change
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Boden, T.A.; Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W. (eds.)
1991-12-01
This document is a source of frequently used global-change data. This second issue of the Trends series expands the coverage of sites recording atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and methane (CH{sub 4}), and it updates records reported in the first issue. New data for other trace atmospheric gases have been included in this issue; historical data on nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}) from ice cores, modern records of atmospheric concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11 and CFC-12) and N{sub 2}O, and estimates of global estimates of CFC-11 and CFC-12. The estimates for global and national CO{sub 2} emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, the production of cement, and gas flaring have been revised and updated. Regional CO{sub 2} emission estimates have been added, and long-term temperature records have been updated and expanded. Data records are presented in four- to six-page formats, each dealing with a specific site, region, or emissions species. The data records include tables and graphs; discussion of methods for collecting, measuring, and reporting the data; trends in the data; and references to literature that provides further information. All data appearing in the document are available on digital media from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.
TRENDS 1991: A compendium of data on global change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Boden, T.A.; Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W.
1991-12-01
This document is a source of frequently used global-change data. This second issue of the Trends series expands the coverage of sites recording atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ), and it updates records reported in the first issue. New data for other trace atmospheric gases have been included in this issue; historical data on nitrous oxide (N 2 ) from ice cores, modern records of atmospheric concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11 and CFC-12) and N 2 O, and estimates of global estimates of CFC-11 and CFC-12. The estimates for global and national CO 2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, the production of cement, and gas flaring have been revised and updated. Regional CO 2 emission estimates have been added, and long-term temperature records have been updated and expanded. Data records are presented in four- to six-page formats, each dealing with a specific site, region, or emissions species. The data records include tables and graphs; discussion of methods for collecting, measuring, and reporting the data; trends in the data; and references to literature that provides further information. All data appearing in the document are available on digital media from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
Nitrogen leaching from natural ecosystems under global change: a modelling study
Braakhekke, Maarten C.; Rebel, Karin T.; Dekker, Stefan C.; Smith, Benjamin; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Wassen, Martin J.
2017-12-01
To study global nitrogen (N) leaching from natural ecosystems under changing N deposition, climate, and atmospheric CO2, we performed a factorial model experiment for the period 1901-2006 with the N-enabled global terrestrial ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator). In eight global simulations, we used either the true transient time series of N deposition, climate, and atmospheric CO2 as input or kept combinations of these drivers constant at initial values. The results show that N deposition is globally the strongest driver of simulated N leaching, individually causing an increase of 88 % by 1997-2006 relative to pre-industrial conditions. Climate change led globally to a 31 % increase in N leaching, but the size and direction of change varied among global regions: leaching generally increased in regions with high soil organic carbon storage and high initial N status, and decreased in regions with a positive trend in vegetation productivity or decreasing precipitation. Rising atmospheric CO2 generally caused decreased N leaching (33 % globally), with strongest effects in regions with high productivity and N availability. All drivers combined resulted in a rise of N leaching by 73 % with strongest increases in Europe, eastern North America and South-East Asia, where N deposition rates are highest. Decreases in N leaching were predicted for the Amazon and northern India. We further found that N loss by fire regionally is a large term in the N budget, associated with lower N leaching, particularly in semi-arid biomes. Predicted global N leaching from natural lands rose from 13.6 Tg N yr-1 in 1901-1911 to 18.5 Tg N yr-1 in 1997-2006, accounting for reductions of natural land cover. Ecosystem N status (quantified as the reduction of vegetation productivity due to N limitation) shows a similar positive temporal trend but large spatial variability. Interestingly, this variability is more strongly related to vegetation type than N input
ASM Lecture Series: Global Warming and Climate Change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rowland, F. S.
2010-01-01
The melting of ice and permafrost in the north polar region and the shrinking of the tropical glaciers are signals that global warming is no longer solely a warning about the future, but changes which have already arrived. The initial effects of this warming are noticeably present, and the concerns are now of substantial climate change in the near future. Modeling of the consequences on the future atmosphere from increased release of greenhouse gases and some of the possible consequences of climate change, such as rising sea levels and melting of the north polar ice, are discussed. (author)
A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States
Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; Karin L. Riley; Christopher M. Oswalt; Susan J. Crocker; Gary W. Yohe
2013-01-01
Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C), but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and...
Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change: implications for the global carbon cycle
Edward A.G. Schuur; James Bockheim; Josep G. Canadell; Eugenie Euskirchen; Christopher B. Field; Sergey V. Goryachkin; Stefan Hagemann; Peter Kuhry; Peter M. Lafleur; Hanna Lee; Galina Mazhitova; Frederick E. Nelson; Annette Rinke; Vladimir E. Romanovsky; Nikolay Shiklomanov; Charles Tarnocai; Sergey Venevsky; Jason G. Vogel; Sergei A. Zimov
2008-01-01
Thawing permafrost and the resulting microbial decomposition of previously frozen organic carbon (C) is one of the most significant potential feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere in a changing climate. In this article we present an overview of the global permafrost C pool and of the processes that might transfer this C into the atmosphere, as well as...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jakosky, B.M.; Farmer, C.B.
1982-01-01
The water vapor content of the Mars atmosphere was measured from the Viking Orbiter Mars Atmospheric Water Detectors (MAWD) for a period of more than 1 Martian year, from June 1976 through April 1979. Results are presented in the form of global maps of column abundance for 24 periods throughout each Mars year. The data reduction incorporates spatial and seasonal variations in surface pressure and supplements earlier published versions of less complete data
Shafer, S R; Schoeneberger, M M
1991-01-01
The term 'global climate change' encompasses many physical and chemical changes in the atmosphere that have been induced by anthropogenic pollutants. Increases in concentrations of CO2 and CH4 enhance the 'greenhouse effect' of the atmosphere and may contribute to changes in temperature and precipitation patterns at the earth's surface. Nitrogen oxides and SO2 are phytotoxic and also react with other pollutants to produce other phytotoxins in the troposphere such as O3 and acidic substances. However, release of chlorofluorocarbons into the atmosphere may cause depletion of stratospheric O3, increasing the transmittance of ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation to the earth's surface. Increased intensities of UV-B could affect plants and enhance photochemical reactions that generate some phytotoxic pollutants. The role of mycorrhizae in plant responses to such stresses has received little attention. Although plans for several research programs have acknowledged the importance of drought tolerance and soil fertility in plant responses to atmospheric stresses, mycorrhizae are rarely targeted to receive specific investigation. Most vascular land plants form mycorrhizae, so the role of mycorrhizae in mediating plant responses to atmospheric change may be an important consideration in predicting effects of atmospheric changes on plants in managed and natural ecosystems.
Yamamoto, A.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Oka, A.; Takahashi, K.; Ohgaito, R.; Yamanaka, Y.
2016-12-01
Long-term oceanic oxygen change due to global warming is still unclear; most future projections (such as CMIP5) are only performed until 2100. Indeed, few previous studies using conceptual models project oxygen change in the next thousands of years, showing persistent global oxygen reduction by about 30% in the next 2000 years, even after atmospheric carbon dioxide stops rising. Yet, these models cannot sufficiently represent the ocean circulation change: the key driver of oxygen change. Moreover, considering serious effect oxygen reduction has on marine life and biogeochemical cycling, long-term oxygen change should be projected for higher validity. Therefore, we used a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and an offline ocean biogeochemical model, investigating realistic long-term changes in oceanic oxygen concentration and ocean circulation. We integrated these models for 2000 years under atmospheric CO2 doubling and quadrupling. After global oxygen reduction in the first 500 years, oxygen concentration in deep ocean globally recovers and overshoots, despite surface oxygen decrease and weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Deep ocean convection in the Weddell Sea recovers and overshoots, after initial cessation. Thus, enhanced deep convection and associated Antarctic Bottom Water supply oxygen-rich surface waters to deep ocean, resulting global deep ocean oxygenation. We conclude that the change in ocean circulation in the Southern Ocean potentially drives millennial-scale oxygenation in the deep ocean; contrary to past reported long-term oxygen reduction and general expectation. In presentation, we will discuss the mechanism of response of deep ocean convection in the Weddell Sea and show the volume changes of hypoxic waters.
The global change challenge: a regional perspective
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Engelbrecht, F
2012-10-01
Full Text Available with resolution about 210 km Climate Modelling at the CSIR NRE ? NWP and RCM capacity build around the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) of the CSIRO ? A cube-based global model; semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit solution of the primitive equations... to impact on crop yield, livestock, biodiversity and energy demand ? CSIR 2007 www.csir.co.za RCM ens-ave projected change in annual rainfall (%) for 2071-2100 vs 1961-1990 Southern Africa projected to become generally drier...
Variations in tropical convection as an amplifier of global climate change at the millennial scale
Ivanochkoa, T.S.; Ganeshram, R.S.; Brummer, G.J.A.; Ganssen, G.M.; Jung, S.J.A.; Moreton, S.G.; Kroon, D.
2005-01-01
The global expression of millennial-scale climatic change during the glacial period and the persistence of this signal in Holocene records point to atmospheric teleconnections as the mechanism propagating rapid climate variations. We suggest rearrangements in the tropical convection system globally
Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project
Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.
2011-12-01
In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region
Sensitivity of the global submarine hydrate inventory to scenarios of future climate change
Hunter, S. J.; Goldobin, D. S.; Haywood, A. M.; Ridgwell, A.; Rees, J. G.
2013-04-01
The global submarine inventory of methane hydrate is thought to be considerable. The stability of marine hydrates is sensitive to changes in temperature and pressure and once destabilised, hydrates release methane into sediments and ocean and potentially into the atmosphere, creating a positive feedback with climate change. Here we present results from a multi-model study investigating how the methane hydrate inventory dynamically responds to different scenarios of future climate and sea level change. The results indicate that a warming-induced reduction is dominant even when assuming rather extreme rates of sea level rise (up to 20 mm yr-1) under moderate warming scenarios (RCP 4.5). Over the next century modelled hydrate dissociation is focussed in the top ˜100m of Arctic and Subarctic sediments beneath business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), upper estimates of resulting global sea-floor methane fluxes could exceed estimates of natural global fluxes by 2100 (>30-50TgCH4yr-1), although subsequent oxidation in the water column could reduce peak atmospheric release rates to 0.75-1.4 Tg CH4 yr-1.
De Mazière, Martine; Thompson, Anne M.; Kurylo, Michael J.; Wild, Jeannette D.; Bernhard, Germar; Blumenstock, Thomas; Braathen, Geir O.; Hannigan, James W.; Lambert, Jean-Christopher; Leblanc, Thierry; McGee, Thomas J.; Nedoluha, Gerald; Petropavlovskikh, Irina; Seckmeyer, Gunther; Simon, Paul C.; Steinbrecht, Wolfgang; Strahan, Susan E.
2018-04-01
The Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) is an international global network of more than 90 stations making high-quality measurements of atmospheric composition that began official operations in 1991 after 5 years of planning. Apart from sonde measurements, all measurements in the network are performed by ground-based remote-sensing techniques. Originally named the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC), the name of the network was changed to NDACC in 2005 to better reflect the expanded scope of its measurements. The primary goal of NDACC is to establish long-term databases for detecting changes and trends in the chemical and physical state of the atmosphere (mesosphere, stratosphere, and troposphere) and to assess the coupling of such changes with climate and air quality. NDACC's origins, station locations, organizational structure, and data archiving are described. NDACC is structured around categories of ground-based observational techniques (sonde, lidar, microwave radiometers, Fourier-transform infrared, UV-visible DOAS (differential optical absorption spectroscopy)-type, and Dobson-Brewer spectrometers, as well as spectral UV radiometers), timely cross-cutting themes (ozone, water vapour, measurement strategies, cross-network data integration), satellite measurement systems, and theory and analyses. Participation in NDACC requires compliance with strict measurement and data protocols to ensure that the network data are of high and consistent quality. To widen its scope, NDACC has established formal collaborative agreements with eight other cooperating networks and Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW). A brief history is provided, major accomplishments of NDACC during its first 25 years of operation are reviewed, and a forward-looking perspective is presented.
Long-term decline of global atmospheric ethane concentrations and implications for methane.
Simpson, Isobel J; Sulbaek Andersen, Mads P; Meinardi, Simone; Bruhwiler, Lori; Blake, Nicola J; Helmig, Detlev; Rowland, F Sherwood; Blake, Donald R
2012-08-23
After methane, ethane is the most abundant hydrocarbon in the remote atmosphere. It is a precursor to tropospheric ozone and it influences the atmosphere's oxidative capacity through its reaction with the hydroxyl radical, ethane's primary atmospheric sink. Here we present the longest continuous record of global atmospheric ethane levels. We show that global ethane emission rates decreased from 14.3 to 11.3 teragrams per year, or by 21 per cent, from 1984 to 2010. We attribute this to decreasing fugitive emissions from ethane's fossil fuel source--most probably decreased venting and flaring of natural gas in oil fields--rather than a decline in its other major sources, biofuel use and biomass burning. Ethane's major emission sources are shared with methane, and recent studies have disagreed on whether reduced fossil fuel or microbial emissions have caused methane's atmospheric growth rate to slow. Our findings suggest that reduced fugitive fossil fuel emissions account for at least 10-21 teragrams per year (30-70 per cent) of the decrease in methane's global emissions, significantly contributing to methane's slowing atmospheric growth rate since the mid-1980s.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sprovieri F.
2013-04-01
Full Text Available Consistent, high-quality measurements of atmospheric mercury (Hg are necessary in order to better understand Hg emissions, transport, and deposition on a global scale. Although the number of atmospheric Hg monitoring stations has increased in recent years, the available measurement database is limited and there are many regions of the world where measurements have not been extensively performed. Long-term atmospheric Hg monitoring and additional ground-based monitoring sites are needed in order to generate datasets that will offer new insight and information about the global scale trends of atmospheric Hg emissions and deposition. In the framework of the Global Mercury Observation System (GMOS project, a coordinated global observational network for atmospheric Hg is being established. The overall research strategy of GMOS is to develop a state-of-the-art observation system able to provide information on the concentration of Hg species in ambient air and precipitation on the global scale. This network is being developed by integrating previously established ground-based atmospheric Hg monitoring stations with newly established GMOS sites that are located both at high altitude and sea level locations, as well as in climatically diverse regions. Through the collection of consistent, high-quality atmospheric Hg measurement data, we seek to create a comprehensive assessment of atmospheric Hg concentrations and their dependence on meteorology, long-range atmospheric transport and atmospheric emissions.
Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.
2012-09-01
We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon
Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.
2013-04-01
We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
B. B. B. Booth
2013-04-01
Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high
Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector
Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.
2002-01-01
The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors
Toward GEOS-6, A Global Cloud System Resolving Atmospheric Model
Putman, William M.
2010-01-01
NASA is committed to observing and understanding the weather and climate of our home planet through the use of multi-scale modeling systems and space-based observations. Global climate models have evolved to take advantage of the influx of multi- and many-core computing technologies and the availability of large clusters of multi-core microprocessors. GEOS-6 is a next-generation cloud system resolving atmospheric model that will place NASA at the forefront of scientific exploration of our atmosphere and climate. Model simulations with GEOS-6 will produce a realistic representation of our atmosphere on the scale of typical satellite observations, bringing a visual comprehension of model results to a new level among the climate enthusiasts. In preparation for GEOS-6, the agency's flagship Earth System Modeling Framework [JDl] has been enhanced to support cutting-edge high-resolution global climate and weather simulations. Improvements include a cubed-sphere grid that exposes parallelism; a non-hydrostatic finite volume dynamical core, and algorithm designed for co-processor technologies, among others. GEOS-6 represents a fundamental advancement in the capability of global Earth system models. The ability to directly compare global simulations at the resolution of spaceborne satellite images will lead to algorithm improvements and better utilization of space-based observations within the GOES data assimilation system
Christine Wiedinmyer; Xuexi Tie; Alex Guenther; Ron Neilson; Claire. Granier
2006-01-01
Isoprene is emitted from vegetation to the atmosphere in significant quantities, and it plays an important role in the reactions that control tropospheric oxidant concentrations. As future climatic and land-cover changes occur, the spatial and temporal variations, as well as the magnitude of these biogenic isoprene emissions, are expected to change. This paper presents...
Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate-Chemistry Interactions
Isaksen, I.S.A.; Granier, C.; Myhre, G.; Bernsten, T. K.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Gauss, S.; Klimont, Z.; Benestad, R.; Bousquet, P.; Collins, W.;
2011-01-01
Chemically active climate compounds are either primary compounds such as methane (CH4), removed by oxidation in the atmosphere, or secondary compounds such as ozone (O3), sulfate and organic aerosols, formed and removed in the atmosphere. Man-induced climate-chemistry interaction is a two-way process: Emissions of pollutants change the atmospheric composition contributing to climate change through the aforementioned climate components, and climate change, through changes in temperature, dynamics, the hydrological cycle, atmospheric stability, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions, affects the atmospheric composition and oxidation processes in the troposphere. Here we present progress in our understanding of processes of importance for climate-chemistry interactions, and their contributions to changes in atmospheric composition and climate forcing. A key factor is the oxidation potential involving compounds such as O3 and the hydroxyl radical (OH). Reported studies represent both current and future changes. Reported results include new estimates of radiative forcing based on extensive model studies of chemically active climate compounds such as O3, and of particles inducing both direct and indirect effects. Through EU projects such as ACCENT, QUANTIFY, and the AEROCOM project, extensive studies on regional and sector-wise differences in the impact on atmospheric distribution are performed. Studies have shown that land-based emissions have a different effect on climate than ship and aircraft emissions, and different measures are needed to reduce the climate impact. Several areas where climate change can affect the tropospheric oxidation process and the chemical composition are identified. This can take place through enhanced stratospheric-tropospheric exchange of ozone, more frequent periods with stable conditions favouring pollution build up over industrial areas, enhanced temperature-induced biogenic emissions, methane releases from permafrost thawing, and enhanced
Do invasive alien plants benefit more from global environmental change than native plants?
Liu, Yanjie; Oduor, Ayub M O; Zhang, Zhen; Manea, Anthony; Tooth, Ifeanna M; Leishman, Michelle R; Xu, Xingliang; van Kleunen, Mark
2017-08-01
Invasive alien plant species threaten native biodiversity, disrupt ecosystem functions and can cause large economic damage. Plant invasions have been predicted to further increase under ongoing global environmental change. Numerous case studies have compared the performance of invasive and native plant species in response to global environmental change components (i.e. changes in mean levels of precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO 2 concentration or nitrogen deposition). Individually, these studies usually involve low numbers of species and therefore the results cannot be generalized. Therefore, we performed a phylogenetically controlled meta-analysis to assess whether there is a general pattern of differences in invasive and native plant performance under each component of global environmental change. We compiled a database of studies that reported performance measures for 74 invasive alien plant species and 117 native plant species in response to one of the above-mentioned global environmental change components. We found that elevated temperature and CO 2 enrichment increased the performance of invasive alien plants more strongly than was the case for native plants. Invasive alien plants tended to also have a slightly stronger positive response to increased N deposition and increased precipitation than native plants, but these differences were not significant (N deposition: P = 0.051; increased precipitation: P = 0.679). Invasive alien plants tended to have a slightly stronger negative response to decreased precipitation than native plants, although this difference was also not significant (P = 0.060). So while drought could potentially reduce plant invasion, increases in the four other components of global environmental change considered, particularly global warming and atmospheric CO 2 enrichment, may further increase the spread of invasive plants in the future. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Burkhart, J. F.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Stordal, F.; Berntsen, T.; Westermann, S.; Kristjansson, J. E.; Etzelmuller, B.; Hagen, J. O.; Schuler, T.; Hamran, S. E.; Lande, T. S.; Bryn, A.
2015-12-01
Climate change is impacting the high latitudes more rapidly and significantly than any other region of the Earth because of feedback processes between the atmosphere and the underlying surface. A warmer climate has already led to thawing of permafrost, reducing snow cover and a longer growing season; changes, which in turn influence the atmospheric circulation and the hydrological cycle. Still, many studies rely on one-way coupling between the atmosphere and the land surface, thereby neglecting important interactions and feedbacks. The observation, understanding and prediction of such processes from local to regional and global scales, represent a major scientific challenge that requires multidisciplinary scientific effort. The successful integration of earth observations (remote and in-situ data) and model development requires a harmonized research effort between earth system scientists, modelers and the developers of technologies and sensors. LATICE, which is recognized as a priority research area by the Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences at the University of Oslo, aims to advance the knowledge base concerning land atmosphere interactions and their role in controlling climate variability and climate change at high northern latitudes. The consortium consists of an interdisciplinary team of experts from the atmospheric and terrestrial (hydrosphere, cryosphere and biosphere) research groups, together with key expertise on earth observations and novel sensor technologies. LATICE addresses critical knowledge gaps in the current climate assessment capacity through: Improving parameterizations of processes in earth system models controlling the interactions and feedbacks between the land (snow, ice, permafrost, soil and vegetation) and the atmosphere at high latitudes, including the boreal, alpine and artic zone. Assessing the influence of climate and land cover changes on water and energy fluxes. Integrating remote earth observations with in-situ data and
Global isoprene and monoterpene emissions under changing climate, vegetation, CO2 and land use
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hantson, Stijn; Knorr, Wolfgang; Schurgers, Guy
2017-01-01
Plants emit large quantities of isoprene and monoterpenes, the main components of global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. BVOCs have an important impact on the atmospheric composition of methane, and of short-lived radiative forcing agents (e.g. ozone, aerosols etc.). It is th......Plants emit large quantities of isoprene and monoterpenes, the main components of global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. BVOCs have an important impact on the atmospheric composition of methane, and of short-lived radiative forcing agents (e.g. ozone, aerosols etc.......). It is therefore necessary to know how isoprene and monoterpene emissions have changed over the past and how future changes in climate, land-use and other factors will impact them. Here we present emission estimates of isoprene and monoterpenes over the period 1901–2 100 based on the dynamic global vegetation...... model LPJ-GUESS, including the effects of all known important drivers. We find that both isoprene and monoterpene emissions at the beginning of the 20th century were higher than at present. While anthropogenic land-use change largely drives the global decreasing trend for isoprene over the 20th century...
Qin, Hongchen; Pritchard, Michael S.; Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Parishani, Hossein
2018-02-01
Many conventional General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE) tend to produce what is now recognized as overly strong land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling. We investigate the effects of cloud Superparameterization (SP) on L-A coupling on timescales beyond diurnal where it has been recently shown to have a favorable muting effect hydrologically. Using the Community Atmosphere Model v3.5 (CAM3.5) and its Superparameterized counterpart SPCAM3.5, we conducted soil moisture interference experiments following the GLACE and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) protocols. The results show that, on weekly-to-subseasonal timescales, SP also mutes hydrologic L-A coupling. This is detectable globally, and happens through the evapotranspiration-precipitation segment. But on seasonal timescales, SP does not exhibit detectable effects on hydrologic L-A coupling. Two robust regional effects of SP on thermal L-A coupling have also been explored. Over the Arabian Peninsula, SP reduces thermal L-A coupling through a straightforward control by mean rainfall reduction. More counterintuitively, over the Southwestern US and Northern Mexico, SP enhances the thermal L-A coupling in a way that is independent of rainfall and soil moisture. This signal is associated with a systematic and previously unrecognized effect of SP that produces an amplified Bowen ratio, and is detectable in multiple SP model versions and experiment designs. In addition to amplifying the present-day Bowen ratio, SP is found to amplify the climate sensitivity of Bowen ratio as well, which likely plays a role in influencing climate change predictions at the L-A interface.
Forecasting global atmospheric CO2
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Agusti-Panareda, A.; Massart, S.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Beljaars, A.; Engelen, R.; Jones, L.; Peuch, V.H.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Paris, J.D.; Sherlock, V.
2014-01-01
A new global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) real-time forecast is now available as part of the preoperational Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate - Interim Implementation (MACC-II) service using the infrastructure of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). One of the strengths of the CO 2 forecasting system is that the land surface, including vegetation CO 2 fluxes, is modelled online within the IFS. Other CO 2 fluxes are prescribed from inventories and from off-line statistical and physical models. The CO 2 forecast also benefits from the transport modelling from a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) system initialized daily with a wealth of meteorological observations. This paper describes the capability of the forecast in modelling the variability of CO 2 on different temporal and spatial scales compared to observations. The modulation of the amplitude of the CO 2 diurnal cycle by near-surface winds and boundary layer height is generally well represented in the forecast. The CO 2 forecast also has high skill in simulating day-to-day synoptic variability. In the atmospheric boundary layer, this skill is significantly enhanced by modelling the day-to-day variability of the CO 2 fluxes from vegetation compared to using equivalent monthly mean fluxes with a diurnal cycle. However, biases in the modelled CO 2 fluxes also lead to accumulating errors in the CO 2 forecast. These biases vary with season with an underestimation of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle both for the CO 2 fluxes compared to total optimized fluxes and the atmospheric CO 2 compared to observations. The largest biases in the atmospheric CO 2 forecast are found in spring, corresponding to the onset of the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. In the future, the forecast will be re-initialized regularly with atmospheric CO 2 analyses based on the assimilation of CO 2 products retrieved from satellite
Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.
1994-05-01
The scope of the report is to present the results of the fourth year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals
Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice as a Microcosm of Global Climate Change
Parkinson, Claire L.
2014-01-01
Polar sea ice is a key element of the climate system and has now been monitored through satellite observations for over three and a half decades. The satellite observations reveal considerable information about polar ice and its changes since the late 1970s, including a prominent downward trend in Arctic sea ice coverage and a much lesser upward trend in Antarctic sea ice coverage, illustrative of the important fact that climate change entails spatial contrasts. The decreasing ice coverage in the Arctic corresponds well with contemporaneous Arctic warming and exhibits particularly large decreases in the summers of 2007 and 2012, influenced by both preconditioning and atmospheric conditions. The increasing ice coverage in the Antarctic is not as readily explained, but spatial differences in the Antarctic trends suggest a possible connection with atmospheric circulation changes that have perhaps been influenced by the Antarctic ozone hole. The changes in the polar ice covers and the issues surrounding those changes have many commonalities with broader climate changes and their surrounding issues, allowing the sea ice changes to be viewed in some important ways as a microcosm of global climate change.
Hu, Shujuan; Chou, Jifan; Cheng, Jianbo
2018-04-01
In order to study the interactions between the atmospheric circulations at the middle-high and low latitudes from the global perspective, the authors proposed the mathematical definition of three-pattern circulations, i.e., horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations with which the actual atmospheric circulation is expanded. This novel decomposition method is proved to accurately describe the actual atmospheric circulation dynamics. The authors used the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to calculate the climate characteristics of those three-pattern circulations, and found that the decomposition model agreed with the observed results. Further dynamical analysis indicates that the decomposition model is more accurate to capture the major features of global three dimensional atmospheric motions, compared to the traditional definitions of Rossby wave, Hadley circulation and Walker circulation. The decomposition model for the first time realized the decomposition of global atmospheric circulation using three orthogonal circulations within the horizontal, meridional and zonal planes, offering new opportunities to study the large-scale interactions between the middle-high latitudes and low latitudes circulations.
1975-01-01
The level, intensity, nature and impact of man's activities upon weather and climatic changes are explored. It is shown that industrialization leads to increased CO2 levels, atmospheric dust content and land surfaces changes. This in turn causes global climatic interactions which results in a general cooling trend. Global cooperation is advocated to stem environmental degradation and weather pattern interruption by the use of corrective mechanisms.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. De Mazière
2018-04-01
Full Text Available The Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC is an international global network of more than 90 stations making high-quality measurements of atmospheric composition that began official operations in 1991 after 5 years of planning. Apart from sonde measurements, all measurements in the network are performed by ground-based remote-sensing techniques. Originally named the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC, the name of the network was changed to NDACC in 2005 to better reflect the expanded scope of its measurements. The primary goal of NDACC is to establish long-term databases for detecting changes and trends in the chemical and physical state of the atmosphere (mesosphere, stratosphere, and troposphere and to assess the coupling of such changes with climate and air quality. NDACC's origins, station locations, organizational structure, and data archiving are described. NDACC is structured around categories of ground-based observational techniques (sonde, lidar, microwave radiometers, Fourier-transform infrared, UV-visible DOAS (differential optical absorption spectroscopy-type, and Dobson–Brewer spectrometers, as well as spectral UV radiometers, timely cross-cutting themes (ozone, water vapour, measurement strategies, cross-network data integration, satellite measurement systems, and theory and analyses. Participation in NDACC requires compliance with strict measurement and data protocols to ensure that the network data are of high and consistent quality. To widen its scope, NDACC has established formal collaborative agreements with eight other cooperating networks and Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW. A brief history is provided, major accomplishments of NDACC during its first 25 years of operation are reviewed, and a forward-looking perspective is presented.
The global change research center atmospheric chemistry model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Moraes, Jr., Francis Perry [Oregon Graduate Inst. of Science and Technology, Portland, OR (United States)
1995-01-01
This work outlines the development of a new model of the chemistry of the natural atmosphere. The model is 2.5-dimensional, having spatial coordinates height, latitude, and, the half-dimension, land and ocean. The model spans both the troposphere and stratosphere, although the troposphere is emphasized and the stratosphere is simple and incomplete. The chemistry in the model includes the Ox, HOx, NOx, and methane cycles in a highly modular fashion which allows model users great flexibility in selecting simulation parameters. A detailed modeled sensitivity analysis is also presented. A key aspect of the model is its inclusion of clouds. The model uses current understanding of the distribution and optical thickness of clouds to determine the true radiation distribution in the atmosphere. As a result, detailed studies of the radiative effects of clouds on the distribution of both oxidant concentrations and trace gas removal are possible. This work presents a beginning of this study with model results and discussion of cloud effects on the hydroxyl radical.
Global change impacts on mangrove ecosystems
McKee, Karen L.
2004-01-01
Mangroves are tropical/subtropical communities of primarily tree species that grow in the intertidal zone. These tidal forests are important coastal ecosystems that are valued for a variety of ecological and societal goods and services. Major local threats to mangrove ecosystems worldwide include clearcutting and trimming of forests for urban, agricultural, or industrial expansion; hydrological alterations; toxic chemical spills; and eutrophication. In many countries with mangroves, much of the human population resides in the coastal zone, and their activities often negatively impact the integrity of mangrove forests. In addition, eutrophication, which is the process whereby nutrients build up to higher than normal levels in a natural system, is possibly one of the most serious threats to mangroves and associated ecosystems such as coral reefs. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the National Wetlands Research Center are working to more fully understand global impacts on these significant ecosystems.Changes in climate and other factors may also affect mangroves, but in complex ways. Global warming may promote expansion of mangrove forests to higher latitudes and accelerate sea-level rise through melting of polar ice or steric expansion of oceans. Changes in sea level would alter flooding patterns and the structure and areal extent of mangroves. Climate change may also alter rainfall patterns, which would in turn change local salinity regimes and competitive interactions of mangroves with other wetland species. Increases in frequency or intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes in combination with sea-level rise may alter erosion and sedimentation rates in mangrove forests. Another global change factor that may directly affect mangrove growth is increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), caused by burning of fossil fuels and other factors. Elevated CO2 concentration may increase mangrove growth by stimulating photosynthesis or improving water use
U.S. Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment Global Change Information System
Tilmes, Curt
2012-01-01
The program: a) Coordinates Federal research to better understand and prepare the nation for global change. b) Priori4zes and supports cutting edge scientific work in global change. c) Assesses the state of scientific knowledge and the Nation s readiness to respond to global change. d) Communicates research findings to inform, educate, and engage the global community.
A global hybrid coupled model based on atmosphere-SST feedbacks
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cimatoribus, Andrea A.; Drijfhout, Sybren S. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt (Netherlands); Dijkstra, Henk A. [Utrecht University, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht (Netherlands)
2012-02-15
A global hybrid coupled model is developed, with the aim of studying the effects of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The model includes a global ocean general circulation model and a statistical atmosphere model. The statistical atmosphere model is based on linear regressions of data from a fully coupled climate model on sea surface temperature both locally and hemispherically averaged, being the footprint of Atlantic meridional overturning variability. It provides dynamic boundary conditions to the ocean model for heat, freshwater and wind-stress. A basic but consistent representation of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks is captured in the hybrid coupled model and it is more than 10 times faster than the fully coupled climate model. The hybrid coupled model reaches a steady state with a climate close to the one of the fully coupled climate model, and the two models also have a similar response (collapse) of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to a freshwater hosing applied in the northern North Atlantic. (orig.)
Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2010 Version: Users Guide
Justh, H. L.
2014-01-01
This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2010 (Mars-GRAM 2010) and its new features. Mars-GRAM is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. Applications include systems design, performance analysis, and operations planning for aerobraking, entry, descent and landing, and aerocapture. Additionally, this TM includes instructions on obtaining the Mars-GRAM source code and data files as well as running Mars-GRAM. It also contains sample Mars-GRAM input and output files and an example of how to incorporate Mars-GRAM as an atmospheric subroutine in a trajectory code.
Dynamics of radioactive lead isotopes in the global environmental atmosphere
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Koike, Yuya; Kosako, Toshiso
2006-01-01
Fundamental information of radioactive lead isotopes, which used as the atmospheric tracer in the global environmental atmosphere, is reviewed. Emanation and exhalation of Rn and Tn, parent nuclide, is stated. Some reports on measurement and application of short-lived lead isotopes are reported. Transfer of radioactive lead isotopes in the atmosphere, vertical profiles of radon, thoron, and short-lived lead isotopes for different turbulent mixing conditions, deposition to aerosol, basic processes of Rn decay product behavior in air defining 'unattached' and 'aerosol-attached' activities, seasonal variation of atmospheric 210 Pb concentration at Beijing and Chengdu, seasonal variation of atmospheric 212 Pb concentration at several observation sites in Japan Islands, and variation in the atmospheric concentration of 212 Pb along with SO 2 are shown. (S.Y.)
Wintertime urban heat island modified by global climate change over Japan
Hara, M.
2015-12-01
Urban thermal environment change, especially, surface air temperature (SAT) rise in metropolitan areas, is one of the major recent issues in urban areas. The urban thermal environmental change affects not only human health such as heat stroke, but also increasing infectious disease due to spreading out virus vectors habitat and increase of industry and house energy consumption. The SAT rise is mostly caused by global climate change and urban heat island (hereafter UHI) by urbanization. The population in Tokyo metropolitan area is over 30 millions and the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the biggest megacities in the world. The temperature rise due to urbanization seems comparable to the global climate change in the major megacities. It is important to project how the urbanization and the global climate change affect to the future change of urban thermal environment to plan the adaptation and mitigation policy. To predict future SAT change in urban scale, we should estimate future UHI modified by the global climate change. This study investigates change in UHI intensity (UHII) of major metropolitan areas in Japan by effects of the global climate change. We performed a series of climate simulations. Present climate simulations with and without urban process are conducted for ten seasons using a high-resolution numerical climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Future climate projections with and without urban process are also conducted. The future projections are performed using the pseudo global warming method, assuming 2050s' initial and boundary conditions estimated by a GCM under the RCP scenario. Simulation results indicated that UHII would be enhanced more than 30% in Tokyo during the night due to the global climate change. The enhancement of urban heat island is mostly caused by change of lower atmospheric stability.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Stoss, F.W. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
1994-06-01
The issue of global change is international in scope. A body of international organizations oversees the worldwide coordination of research and policy initiatives. In the US the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) was established in November of 1993 to provide coordination of science, space, and technology policies throughout the federal government. NSTC is organized into nine proposed committees. The Committee on Environmental and Natural Resources (CERN) oversees the US Department of Energy`s Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). As part of the USGCRP, the US Department of Energy`s Global Change Research Program aims to improve the understanding of Earth systems and to strengthen the scientific basis for the evaluation of policy and government action in response to potential global environmental changes. This paper examines the information and data management roles of several international and national programs, including Oak Ridge National Laboratory`s (ORNL`s) global change information programs. An emphasis will be placed on the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), which also serves as the World Data Center-A for Atmospheric Trace Gases.
Emerging pattern of global change in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Laštovička, Jan; Akmaev, R. A.; Beig, G.; Bremer, J.; Emmert, J. T.; Jacobi, C.; Jarvis, M.J.; Nedoluha, G.; Portnyagin, Yu. I.; Ulich, T.
2008-01-01
Roč. 26, č. 5 (2008), s. 1255-1268 ISSN 0992-7689 R&D Projects: GA MŠk OC 091 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Atmospheric composition and structure * Thermosphere – composition and chemistry * Evolution of the atmosphere * Ionosphere * Ionosphere-atmosphere interactions Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.660, year: 2008 http://www.ann-geophys.net/26/1255/2008/
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fujita, Daisuke; Saeki, Tazu; Nakazawa, Takakiyo [Tohoku Univ., Sendai (Japan). Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Studies; Ishizawa, Misa; Maksyutov, Shamil [Inst. for Global Change Research, Yokohama (Japan). Frontier Research System for Global Change; Thornton, Peter E. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States). Climate and Global Dynamics Div.
2003-04-01
Seasonal and inter-annual variations of atmospheric CO{sub 2} for the period from 1961 to 1997 have been simulated using a global tracer transport model driven by a new version of the Biome BioGeochemical Cycle model (Biome-BGC). Biome-BGC was forced by daily temperature and precipitation from the NCEP reanalysis dataset, and the calculated monthly-averaged CO{sub 2} fluxes were used as input to the global transport model. Results from an inter-comparison with the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model (CASA) and the Simulation model of Carbon CYCLE in Land Ecosystems (Sim-CYCLE) model are also reported. The phase of the seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere was reproduced generally well by Biome-BGC, although the amplitude was smaller compared to the observations and to the other biosphere models. The CO{sub 2} time series simulated by Biome-BGC were compared to the global CO{sub 2} concentration anomalies from the observations at Mauna Loa and the South Pole. The modeled concentration anomalies matched the phase of the inter-annual variations in the atmospheric CO{sub 2} observations; however, the modeled amplitude was lower than the observed value in several cases. The result suggests that a significant part of the inter-annual variability in the global carbon cycle can be accounted for by the terrestrial biosphere models. Simulations performed with another climate-based model, Sim-CYCLE, produced a larger amplitude of inter-annual variability in atmospheric CO{sub 2}, making the amplitude closer to the observed range, but with a more visible phase mismatch in a number of time periods. This may indicate the need to increase the Biome-BGC model sensitivity to seasonal and inter-annual changes in temperature and precipitation.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fujita, Daisuke; Saeki, Tazu; Nakazawa, Takakiyo; Ishizawa, Misa; Maksyutov, Shamil; Thornton, Peter E.
2003-01-01
Seasonal and inter-annual variations of atmospheric CO 2 for the period from 1961 to 1997 have been simulated using a global tracer transport model driven by a new version of the Biome BioGeochemical Cycle model (Biome-BGC). Biome-BGC was forced by daily temperature and precipitation from the NCEP reanalysis dataset, and the calculated monthly-averaged CO 2 fluxes were used as input to the global transport model. Results from an inter-comparison with the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model (CASA) and the Simulation model of Carbon CYCLE in Land Ecosystems (Sim-CYCLE) model are also reported. The phase of the seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere was reproduced generally well by Biome-BGC, although the amplitude was smaller compared to the observations and to the other biosphere models. The CO 2 time series simulated by Biome-BGC were compared to the global CO 2 concentration anomalies from the observations at Mauna Loa and the South Pole. The modeled concentration anomalies matched the phase of the inter-annual variations in the atmospheric CO 2 observations; however, the modeled amplitude was lower than the observed value in several cases. The result suggests that a significant part of the inter-annual variability in the global carbon cycle can be accounted for by the terrestrial biosphere models. Simulations performed with another climate-based model, Sim-CYCLE, produced a larger amplitude of inter-annual variability in atmospheric CO 2 , making the amplitude closer to the observed range, but with a more visible phase mismatch in a number of time periods. This may indicate the need to increase the Biome-BGC model sensitivity to seasonal and inter-annual changes in temperature and precipitation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Le Roux, Xavier; Bouskill, Nicholas J.; Niboyet, Audrey
2016-01-01
Soil microbial diversity is huge and a few grams of soil contain more bacterial taxa than there are bird species on Earth. This high diversity often makes predicting the responses of soil bacteria to environmental change intractable and restricts our capacity to predict the responses of soil...... functions to global change. Here, using a long-term field experiment in a California grassland, we studied the main and interactive effects of three global change factors (increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, precipitation and nitrogen addition, and all their factorial combinations, based on global...
Schindelegger, M.; Böhm, J.; Salstein, D. A.; Schuh, H.
2012-12-01
Thermally-driven atmospheric tides provide a small but distinct contribution to shortperiod variations of Earth rotation parameters (ERP). The effect of diurnal and semi-diurnal tides, commonly denoted as S1 and S2, respectively, is in the range of 2 - 10 uas for polar motion and 2 - 10 uas for changes in length-of-day (LOD). Even though ocean tides represent a much more dominant driving agent for ERP fluctuations at short time scales, high-frequency atmospheric effects are non-negligible, particularly given the prospective measurement accuracy of space geodetic techniques. However, previous studies, such as Brzezinski et al. (2002), de Viron et al. (2005) or Schindelegger et al. (2011), have been noticeably inconclusive on the exact amplitude and phase values of S1 and S2 atmospheric excitation signals. This study aims at shedding light on the origin of these uncertainties with respect to the axial component of Earth's rotation vector by investigating times series of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) functions that are given on global grids and computed from three-hourly meteorological data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The signature of diurnal and semi-diurnal atmospheric tides is clearly visible in the gridded axial AAM functions, revealing a distinct spatial and temporal phase difference between pressure and wind tidal constituents of about ± π. It is shown that due to this counterbalance and the explicit axisymmetric spatial structure of S1 and S2, the net effect in sub-diurnal AAM (which is calculated from the global sum of gridded AAM functions) is always a small quantity, particularly sensitive to minor differences between the analysis fields of numerical weather models.
Observed decrease in atmospheric mercury explained by global decline in anthropogenic emissions
Yanxu Zhang,; Daniel J. Jacob,; Hannah M. Horowitz,; Long Chen,; Helen M. Amos,; Krabbenhoft, David P.; Franz Slemr,; Vincent L. St. Louis,; Elsie M. Sunderland,
2015-01-01
Observations of elemental mercury (Hg0) at sites in North America and Europe show large decreases (∼1–2% y−1) from 1990 to present. Observations in background northern hemisphere air, including Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) aircraft flights, show weaker decreases (inventories indicating flat or increasing emissions over that period. However, the inventories have three major flaws: (i) they do not account for the decline in atmospheric release of Hg from commercial products; (ii) they are biased in their estimate of artisanal and small-scale gold mining emissions; and (iii) they do not properly account for the change in Hg0/HgII speciation of emissions from coal-fired utilities after implementation of emission controls targeted at SO2 and NOx. We construct an improved global emission inventory for the period 1990 to 2010 accounting for the above factors and find a 20% decrease in total Hg emissions and a 30% decrease in anthropogenic Hg0 emissions, with much larger decreases in North America and Europe offsetting the effect of increasing emissions in Asia. Implementation of our inventory in a global 3D atmospheric Hg simulation [GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry)] coupled to land and ocean reservoirs reproduces the observed large-scale trends in atmospheric Hg0 concentrations and in HgII wet deposition. The large trends observed in North America and Europe reflect the phase-out of Hg from commercial products as well as the cobenefit from SO2 and NOx emission controls on coal-fired utilities.
Global vegetation change predicted by the modified Budyko model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Monserud, R.A.; Tchebakova, N.M.; Leemans, R. (US Department of Agriculture, Moscow, ID (United States). Intermountain Research Station, Forest Service)
1993-09-01
A modified Budyko global vegetation model is used to predict changes in global vegetation patterns resulting from climate change (CO[sub 2] doubling). Vegetation patterns are predicted using a model based on a dryness index and potential evaporation determined by solving radiation balance equations. Climate change scenarios are derived from predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCM's) of the atmosphere (GFDL, GISS, OSU, and UKMO). All four GCM scenarios show similar trends in vegetation shifts and in areas that remain stable, although the UKMO scenario predicts greater warming than the others. Climate change maps produced by all four GCM scenarios show good agreement with the current climate vegetation map for the globe as a whole, although over half of the vegetation classes show only poor to fair agreement. The most stable areas are Desert and Ice/Polar Desert. Because most of the predicted warming is concentrated in the Boreal and Temperate zones, vegetation there is predicted to undergo the greatest change. Most vegetation classes in the Subtropics and Tropics are predicted to expand. Any shift in the Tropics favouring either Forest over Savanna, or vice versa, will be determined by the magnitude of the increased precipitation accompanying global warming. Although the model predicts equilibrium conditions to which many plant species cannot adjust (through migration or microevolution) in the 50-100 y needed for CO[sub 2] doubling, it is not clear if projected global warming will result in drastic or benign vegetation change. 72 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.
Removal of Atmospheric Ethanol by Wet Deposition: A Global Flux Estimate
Felix, J. D. D.; Willey, J. D.; Avery, B.; Thomas, R.; Mullaugh, K.; Kieber, R. J.; Mead, R. N.; Helms, J. R.; Campos, L.; Shimizu, M. S.; Guibbina, F.
2017-12-01
Global ethanol fuel consumption has increased exponentially over the last two decades and the US plans to double annual renewable fuel production in the next five years as required by the renewable fuel standard. Regardless of the technology or feedstock used to produce the renewable fuel, the primary end product will be ethanol. Increasing ethanol fuel consumption will have an impact on the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and increase atmospheric concentrations of the secondary pollutant peroxyacetyl nitrate as well a variety of VOCs with relatively high ozone reactivities (e.g. ethanol, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde). Despite these documented effects of ethanol emissions on atmospheric chemistry, current global atmospheric ethanol budget models have large uncertainties in the magnitude of ethanol sources and sinks. The presented work investigates the global wet deposition sink by providing the first estimate of the global wet deposition flux of ethanol (2.4 ± 1.6 Tg/yr) based on empirical wet deposition data (219 samples collected at 12 locations). This suggests the wet deposition sink removes between 6 and 17% of atmospheric ethanol annually. Concentrations of ethanol in marine wet deposition (25 ± 6 nM) were an order of magnitude less than in the majority of terrestrial deposition (345 ± 280 nM). Terrestrial deposition collected in locations impacted by high local sources of biofuel usage and locations downwind from ethanol distilleries were an order of magnitude higher in ethanol concentration (3090 ± 448 nM) compared to deposition collected in terrestrial locations not impacted by these sources. These results indicate that wet deposition of ethanol is heavily influenced by local sources and ethanol emission impacts on air quality may be more significant in highly populated areas. As established and developing countries continue to rapidly increase ethanol fuel consumption and subsequent emissions, understanding the magnitude of all ethanol sources and
Global atmospheric chemistry – which air matters
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. J. Prather
2017-07-01
Full Text Available An approach for analysis and modeling of global atmospheric chemistry is developed for application to measurements that provide a tropospheric climatology of those heterogeneously distributed, reactive species that control the loss of methane and the production and loss of ozone. We identify key species (e.g., O3, NOx, HNO3, HNO4, C2H3NO5, H2O, HOOH, CH3OOH, HCHO, CO, CH4, C2H6, acetaldehyde, acetone and presume that they can be measured simultaneously in air parcels on the scale of a few km horizontally and a few tenths of a km vertically. As a first step, six global models have prepared such climatologies sampled at the modeled resolution for August with emphasis on the vast central Pacific Ocean basin. Objectives of this paper are to identify and characterize differences in model-generated reactivities as well as species covariances that could readily be discriminated with an unbiased climatology. A primary tool is comparison of multidimensional probability densities of key species weighted by the mass of such parcels or frequency of occurrence as well as by the reactivity of the parcels with respect to methane and ozone. The reactivity-weighted probabilities tell us which parcels matter in this case, and this method shows skill in differentiating among the models' chemistry. Testing 100 km scale models with 2 km measurements using these tools also addresses a core question about model resolution and whether fine-scale atmospheric structures matter to the overall ozone and methane budget. A new method enabling these six global chemistry–climate models to ingest an externally sourced climatology and then compute air parcel reactivity is demonstrated. Such an objective climatology containing these key species is anticipated from the NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom aircraft mission (2015–2020, executing profiles over the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins. This modeling study addresses a core part of the design of ATom.
Conceptual understanding of climate change with a globally resolved energy balance model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dommenget, Dietmar [Monash University, School of Mathematical Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Floeter, Janine [Leibniz Institute for Marine Sciences, Kiel (Germany)
2011-12-15
The future climate change projections are essentially based on coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations, which give a distinct global warming pattern with arctic winter amplification, an equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and an inter-hemispheric warming gradient. While these simulations are the most important tool of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions, the conceptual understanding of these predicted structures of climate change and the causes of their uncertainties is very difficult to reach if only based on these highly complex CGCM simulations. In the study presented here we will introduce a very simple, globally resolved energy balance (GREB) model, which is capable of simulating the main characteristics of global warming. The model shall give a bridge between the strongly simplified energy balance models and the fully coupled 4-dimensional complex CGCMs. It provides a fast tool for the conceptual understanding and development of hypotheses for climate change studies, which shall build a basis or starting point for more detailed studies of observations and CGCM simulations. It is based on the surface energy balance by very simple representations of solar and thermal radiation, the atmospheric hydrological cycle, sensible turbulent heat flux, transport by the mean atmospheric circulation and heat exchange with the deeper ocean. Despite some limitations in the representations of the basic processes, the models climate sensitivity and the spatial structure of the warming pattern are within the uncertainties of the IPCC models simulations. It is capable of simulating aspects of the arctic winter amplification, the equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and the inter-hemispheric warming gradient with good agreement to the IPCC models in amplitude and structure. The results give some insight into the understanding of the land-sea contrast and the polar amplification. The GREB model suggests that the regional inhomogeneous
Using an atmospheric boundary layer model to force global ocean models
Abel, Rafael; Böning, Claus
2014-05-01
Current practices in the atmospheric forcing of ocean model simulations can lead to unphysical behaviours. The problem lies in the bulk formulation of the turbulent air-sea fluxes in the conjunction with a prescribed, and unresponsive, atmospheric state (as given by reanalysis products). This can have impacts both on mesoscale processes as well as on the dynamics of the large-scale circulation. First, a possible local mismatch between the given atmospheric state and evolving sea surface temperature (SST) signatures can occur, especially for mesoscale features such as frontal areas, eddies, or near the sea ice edge. Any ocean front shift or evolution of mesoscale anomalies results in excessive, unrealistic surface fluxes due to the lack of atmospheric adaptation. Second, a subtle distortion in the sensitive balance of feedback processes being critical for the thermohaline circulation. Since the bulk formulations assume an infinite atmospheric heat capacity, resulting SST anomalies are strongly damped even on basin-scales (e.g. from trends in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation). In consequence, an important negative feedback is eliminated, rendering the system excessively susceptible to small anomalies (or errors) in the freshwater fluxes. Previous studies (Seager et al., 1995, J. Clim.) have suggested a partial forcing issue remedy that aimed for a physically more realistic determination of air-sea fluxes by allowing some (thermodynamic) adaptation of the atmospheric boundary layer to SST changes. In this study a modernized formulation of this approach (Deremble et al., 2013, Mon. Weather Rev.; 'CheapAML') is implemented in a global ocean-ice model with moderate resolution (0.5°; ORCA05). In a set of experiments we explore the solution behaviour of this forcing approach (where only the winds are prescribed, while atmospheric temperature and humidity are computed), contrasting it with the solution obtained from the classical bulk formulation with a non
Drought and Carbon Cycling of Grassland Ecosystems under Global Change: A Review
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Tianjie Lei
2016-10-01
Full Text Available In recent years, the increased intensity and duration of droughts have dramatically altered the structure and function of grassland ecosystems, which have been forced to adapt to this change in climate. Combinations of global change drivers such as elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, warming, nitrogen (N deposition, grazing, and land-use change have influenced the impact that droughts have on grassland C cycling. This influence, to some extent, can modify the relationship between droughts and grassland carbon (C cycling in the multi-factor world. Unfortunately, prior reviews have been primarily anecdotal from the 1930s to the 2010s. We investigated the current state of the study on the interactive impacts of multiple factors under drought scenarios in grassland C cycling and provided scientific advice for dealing with droughts and managing grassland C cycling in a multi-factor world. Currently, adequate information is not available on the interaction between droughts and global change drivers, which would advance our understanding of grassland C cycling responses. It was determined that future experiments and models should specifically test how droughts regulate grassland C cycling under global changes. Previous multi-factor experiments of current and future global change conditions have studied various drought scenarios poorly, including changes in precipitation frequency and amplitude, timing, and interactions with other global change drivers. Multi-factor experiments have contributed to quantifying these potential changes and have provided important information on how water affects ecosystem processes under global change. There is an urgent need to establish a systematic framework that can assess ecosystem dynamic responses to droughts under current and future global change and human activity, with a focus on the combined effects of droughts, global change drivers, and the corresponding hierarchical responses of an ecosystem.
Tsuda, Toshitaka
2014-01-01
The wind velocity and temperature profiles observed in the middle atmosphere (altitude: 10-100 km) show perturbations resulting from superposition of various atmospheric waves, including atmospheric gravity waves. Atmospheric gravity waves are known to play an important role in determining the general circulation in the middle atmosphere by dynamical stresses caused by gravity wave breaking. In this paper, we summarize the characteristics of atmospheric gravity waves observed using the middle and upper atmosphere (MU) radar in Japan, as well as novel satellite data obtained from global positioning system radio occultation (GPS RO) measurements. In particular, we focus on the behavior of gravity waves in the mesosphere (50-90 km), where considerable gravity wave attenuation occurs. We also report on the global distribution of gravity wave activity in the stratosphere (10-50 km), highlighting various excitation mechanisms such as orographic effects, convection in the tropics, meteorological disturbances, the subtropical jet and the polar night jet.
Opazo, N. E.; Lambert, F.
2017-12-01
Mineral dust aerosols affect climate directly by changing the radiative balance of the Earth, and indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and by affecting biogeochemical cycles. The impact on marine biogeochemical cycles is primarily through the supply of micronutrients such as iron to nutrient-limited regions of the oceans. Iron fertilization of High Nutrient Low Chlorophyll (HNLC) regions of the oceans is thought to have significantly affected the carbon cycle on glacial-interglacial scales and contributed about one fourth of the 80-100 ppm lowering of glacial atmospheric CO2 concentrations.In this study, we quantify the effect of global dust fluxes on atmospheric CO2 using the cGENIE model, an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity with emphasis on the carbon cycle. Global Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) dust flux fields were obtained from both dust model simulations and reconstructions based on observational data. The analysis was performed in two stages. In the first instance, we produced 8 global intermediate dust flux fields between Holocene and LGM and simulated the atmospheric CO2 drawdown due to these 10 dust levels. In the second stage, we only changed dust flux levels in specific HNLC regions to isolate the effect of these ocean basins. We thus quantify the contribution of the South Atlantic, the South Pacific, the North Pacific, and the Central Pacific HNLC regions to the total atmospheric CO2 difference due to iron fertilization of the Earth's oceans.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Oechel, W.C.
1993-02-01
Northern ecosystems contain up to 455 Gt of C in the soil active layer and upper permafrost, which is equivalent to approximately 60% of the carbon currently in the atmosphere as CO{sub 2}. Much of this carbon is stored in the soil as dead organic matter. Its fate is subject to the net effects of global change on the plant and soil systems of northern ecosystems. The arctic alone contains about 60 Gt C, 90% of which is present in the soil active layer and upper permafrost, and is assumed to have been a sink for CO{sub 2} during the historic and recent geologic past. Depending on the nature, rate, and magnitude of global environmental change, the arctic may have a positive or negative feedback on global change. Results from the DOE- funded research efforts of 1990 and 1991 indicate that the arctic has become a source of CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere. Measurements made in the Barrow, Alaska region during 1992 support these results. This change coincides with recent climatic variation in the arctic, and suggests a positive feedback of arctic ecosystems on atmospheric CO{sub 2} and global change. There are obvious potential errors in scaling plot level measurements to landscape, mesoscale, and global spatial scales. In light of the results from the recent DOE-funded research, and the remaining uncertainties regarding the change in arctic ecosystem function due to high latitude warming, a revised set of research goals is proposed for the 1993--94 year. The research proposed in this application has four principal aspects: (A) Long- term response of arctic plants and ecosystems to elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2}. (B) Circumpolar patterns of net ecosystem CO{sub 2} flux. (C) In situ controls by temperature and moisture on net ecosystem CO{sub 2} flux. (D) Scaling of CO{sub 2} flux from plot, to landscape, to regional scales.
Atmospheric radiative feedbacks associated with transient climate change and climate variability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Colman, Robert A.; Power, Scott B. [Bureau of Meteorology, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)
2010-06-15
This study examines in detail the 'atmospheric' radiative feedbacks operating in a coupled General Circulation Model (GCM). These feedbacks (defined as the change in top of atmosphere radiation per degree of global surface temperature change) are due to responses in water vapour, lapse rate, clouds and surface albedo. Two types of radiative feedback in particular are considered: those arising from century scale 'transient' warming (from a 1% per annum compounded CO{sub 2} increase), and those operating under the model's own unforced 'natural' variability. The time evolution of the transient (or 'secular') feedbacks is first examined. It is found that both the global strength and the latitudinal distributions of these feedbacks are established within the first two or three decades of warming, and thereafter change relatively little out to 100 years. They also closely approximate those found under equilibrium warming from a 'mixed layer' ocean version of the same model forced by a doubling of CO{sub 2}. These secular feedbacks are then compared with those operating under unforced (interannual) variability. For water vapour, the interannual feedback is only around two-thirds the strength of the secular feedback. The pattern reveals widespread regions of negative feedback in the interannual case, in turn resulting from patterns of circulation change and regions of decreasing as well as increasing surface temperature. Considering the vertical structure of the two, it is found that although positive net mid to upper tropospheric contributions dominate both, they are weaker (and occur lower) under interannual variability than under secular change and are more narrowly confined to the tropics. Lapse rate feedback from variability shows weak negative feedback over low latitudes combined with strong positive feedback in mid-to-high latitudes resulting in no net global feedback - in contrast to the dominant negative low
Trends '91: A compendium of data on global change---highlights
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Boden, T.A.; Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W.
1992-03-01
The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has been prompted to produce the series Trends, a concise inventory of data in response to heightened concern about global environmental issues, in particular climate changes induced by the greenhouse effect. This report contains extracts from Trends '91 to illustrate the content, style, and presentation of data contained in the full 700-page report. This report includes a listing of the investigators contributing data for Trends '91. In addition, it contains the abstract, foreword, and acknowledgments, as well as the introduction and a sample data record from each of the reports's five chapters. The chapters are ''Atmospheric CO 2 ,'' ''Atmospheric CH 4 ,'' ''Other Trace Gases,'' ''CO 2 Emissions,'' and ''Temperature.'' Appendix A provides information about CDIAC and its activities related to global environmental issues. Appendix B lists the contents of the full report. An order form for obtaining a free copy of Trends '91 is found in Appendix C
Global and regional climate change: new evidences between two IPCC reports
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mika, J. [Eszterhazy Karoly College, Budapest (Hungary). Dept. of Geography
2011-07-01
The climate of our planet has never been constant, but the recent changes are by two orders of magnitude faster than the natural changes since the appearance of anthropogenic effects. The discernable global warming started in the 19th century and after speeding up in the 20th century, it has reached about 0.8 K. This fact and the realization of the likely reasons for the changes, plus rapid development of computer technology have resulted in systematic investigations of climate science. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) finalized its Fourth Assessment Report in 2007. The present paper suveys some recent moments of global and regional climate change issued after the Report. Even the economic crisis was not strong enough to deflect the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing for more than one year. It tends to develop at the upper edge of the IPCC (2007) projection band of uncertainties. The part of the emitted carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere is increasing due to weakening of both the biospheric- and the oceanic sinks of this greenhouse gas. The new radiation balance estimations must admit the imbalance between the atmosphere and the oceans indicating the fact that the greenhouse warming definitely takes place. The year 2010 became most likely the warmest one on the global temperature record. The sea-level rise also follows the most rapid track among the foreseen scenarios. In the meantime modelling effort to better estimate regional features of the changes also develop in their full strength. The ENSEMBLES Project ended in December 2009 and published a lot of maps with 25 km model resolution. These results, however, do not show convergence in the estimations for many regions, including Central Europe.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. M. Intrieri
2014-11-01
Full Text Available In February and March of 2011, the Global Hawk unmanned aircraft system (UAS was deployed over the Pacific Ocean and the Arctic during the Winter Storms and Pacific Atmospheric Rivers (WISPAR field campaign. The WISPAR science missions were designed to (1 mprove our understanding of Pacific weather systems and the polar atmosphere; (2 evaluate operational use of unmanned aircraft for investigating these atmospheric events; and (3 demonstrate operational and research applications of a UAS dropsonde system at high latitudes. Dropsondes deployed from the Global Hawk successfully obtained high-resolution profiles of temperature, pressure, humidity, and wind information between the stratosphere and surface. The 35 m wingspan Global Hawk, which can soar for ~ 31 h at altitudes up to ~ 20 km, was remotely operated from NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center at Edwards Air Force Base (AFB in California. During the 25 h polar flight on 9–10 March 2011, the Global Hawk released 35 sondes between the North Slope of Alaska and 85° N latitude, marking the first UAS Arctic dropsonde mission of its kind. The polar flight transected an unusually cold polar vortex, notable for an associated record-level Arctic ozone loss, and documented polar boundary layer variations over a sizable ocean–ice lead feature. Comparison of dropsonde observations with atmospheric reanalyses reveal that, for this day, large-scale structures such as the polar vortex and air masses are captured by the reanalyses, while smaller-scale features, including low-level jets and inversion depths, are mischaracterized. The successful Arctic dropsonde deployment demonstrates the capability of the Global Hawk to conduct operations in harsh, remote regions. The limited comparison with other measurements and reanalyses highlights the potential value of Arctic atmospheric dropsonde observations where routine in situ measurements are practically nonexistent.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. Mühle
2010-06-01
Full Text Available We present atmospheric baseline growth rates from the 1970s to the present for the long-lived, strongly infrared-absorbing perfluorocarbons (PFCs tetrafluoromethane (CF4, hexafluoroethane (C2F6, and octafluoropropane (C3F8 in both hemispheres, measured with improved accuracies (~1–2% and precisions (<0.3%, or <0.2 ppt (parts per trillion dry air mole fraction, for CF4; <1.5%, or <0.06 ppt, for C2F6; <4.5%, or <0.02 ppt, for C3F8 within the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE. Pre-industrial background values of 34.7±0.2 ppt CF4 and 0.1±0.02 ppt C2F6 were measured in air extracted from Greenland ice and Antarctic firn. Anthropogenic sources are thought to be primary aluminum production (CF4, C2F6, C3F8, semiconductor production (C2F6, CF4, C3F8 and refrigeration use (C3F8. Global emissions calculated with the AGAGE 2-D 12-box model are significantly higher than most previous emission estimates. The sum of CF4 and C2F6 emissions estimated from aluminum production and non-metal production are lower than observed global top-down emissions, with gaps of ~6 Gg/yr CF4 in recent years. The significant discrepancies between previous CF4, C2F6, and C3F8 emission estimates and observed global top-down emissions estimated from AGAGE measurements emphasize the need for more accurate, transparent, and complete emission reporting, and for verification with atmospheric measurements to assess the emission sources of these long-lived and potent greenhouse gases, which alter the radiative budget of the atmosphere, essentially permanently, once emitted.
A numerical study for global atmospheric transport-chemistry problems
E.J. Spee (Edwin); J.G. Verwer (Jan); P.M. de Zeeuw (Paul); J.G. Blom (Joke); W. Hundsdorfer (Willem)
1998-01-01
htmlabstractAtmospheric air quality modeling relies in part on numerical simulation. Required numerical simulations are often hampered by lack of computer capacity and computational speed. This problem is most severe in the field of global modeling where transport and exchange of trace constituents
A numerical study for global atmospheric transport-chemistry problems
E.J. Spee (Edwin); J.G. Verwer (Jan); P.M. de Zeeuw (Paul); J.G. Blom (Joke); W. Hundsdorfer (Willem)
1997-01-01
textabstractAtmospheric air quality modeling relies in part on numerical simulation. Required numerical simulations are often hampered by lack of computer capacity and computational speed. This problem is most severe in the field of global modeling where transport and exchange of trace constituents
Changes in the Earth’s Spin Rotation due to the Atmospheric Effects and Reduction in Glaciers
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sung-Ho Na
2016-12-01
Full Text Available The atmosphere strongly affects the Earth’s spin rotation in wide range of timescale from daily to annual. Its dominant role in the seasonal perturbations of both the pole position and spinning rate of the Earth is once again confirmed by a comparison of two recent data sets; i the Earth orientation parameter and ii the global atmospheric state. The atmospheric semi-diurnal tide has been known to be a source of the Earth’s spin acceleration, and its magnitude is re-estimated by using an enhanced formulation and an up-dated empirical atmospheric S2 tide model. During the last twenty years, an unusual eastward drift of the Earth’s pole has been observed. The change in the Earth’s inertia tensor due to glacier mass redistribution is directly assessed, and the recent eastward movement of the pole is ascribed to this change. Furthermore, the associated changes in the length of day and UT1 are estimated.
Ming, Tingzhen; de Richter, Renaud; Shen, Sheng; Caillol, Sylvain
2016-04-01
Even if humans stop discharging CO2 into the atmosphere, the average global temperature will still increase during this century. A lot of research has been devoted to prevent and reduce the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the atmosphere, in order to mitigate the effects of climate change. Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is one of the technologies that might help to limit emissions. In complement, direct CO2 removal from the atmosphere has been proposed after the emissions have occurred. But, the removal of all the excess anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 will not be enough, due to the fact that CO2 outgases from the ocean as its solubility is dependent of its atmospheric partial pressure. Bringing back the Earth average surface temperature to pre-industrial levels would require the removal of all previously emitted CO2. Thus, the atmospheric removal of other greenhouse gases is necessary. This article proposes a combination of disrupting techniques to transform nitrous oxide (N2O), the third most important greenhouse gas (GHG) in terms of current radiative forcing, which is harmful for the ozone layer and possesses quite high global warming potential. Although several scientific publications cite "greenhouse gas removal," to our knowledge, it is the first time innovative solutions are proposed to effectively remove N2O or other GHGs from the atmosphere other than CO2.
Pound, Matthew J; Salzmann, Ulrich
2017-02-24
Rapid global cooling at the Eocene - Oligocene Transition (EOT), ~33.9-33.5 Ma, is widely considered to mark the onset of the modern icehouse world. A large and rapid drop in atmospheric pCO 2 has been proposed as the driving force behind extinctions in the marine realm and glaciation on Antarctica. However, the global terrestrial response to this cooling is uncertain. Here we present the first global vegetation and terrestrial temperature reconstructions for the EOT. Using an extensive palynological dataset, that has been statistically grouped into palaeo-biomes, we show a more transitional nature of terrestrial climate change by indicating a spatial and temporal heterogeneity of vegetation change at the EOT in both hemispheres. The reconstructed terrestrial temperatures show for many regions a cooling that started well before the EOT and continued into the Early Oligocene. We conclude that the heterogeneous pattern of global vegetation change has been controlled by a combination of multiple forcings, such as tectonics, sea-level fall and long-term decline in greenhouse gas concentrations during the late Eocene to early Oligocene, and does not represent a single response to a rapid decline in atmospheric pCO 2 at the EOT.
Changes in yields and their variability at different levels of global warming
Childers, Katelin
2015-04-01
An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the political discussion about mitigation targets as well as for the inclusion of climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that generally only provide global mean temperature change as an indicator of climate change. While there is a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with global mean temperature change we provide an assessment of the extent to which impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of global mean temperature changes without accounting for the specific underlying emissions scenario. Based on multi-crop-model simulations of the four major cereal crops (maize, rice, soy, and wheat) on a 0.5 x 0.5 degree global grid generated within ISI-MIP, we show the average spatial patterns of projected crop yield changes at one half degree warming steps. We find that emissions scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of global warming. Furthermore, scenario dependence can be reduced by accounting for the direct effects of CO2 fertilization in each global climate model (GCM)/impact model combination through an inclusion of the global atmospheric CO2 concentration as a second predictor. The choice of GCM output used to force the crop model simulations accounts for a slightly larger portion of the total yield variance, but the greatest contributor to variance in both global and regional crop yields and at all levels of warming, is the inter-crop-model spread. The unique multi impact model ensemble available with ISI-MIP data also indicates that the overall variability of crop yields is projected to increase in conjunction with increasing global mean temperature. This result is consistent throughout the ensemble of impact models and across many world regions. Such a hike in yield volatility could have
Rich, Alisa L; Patel, Jay T
2015-01-01
Carbon disulfide (CS2) has been historically associated with the production of rayon, cellophane, and carbon tetrachloride. This study identifies multiple mechanisms by which CS2 contributes to the formation of CO2 in the atmosphere. CS2 and other associated sulfide compounds were found by this study to be present in emissions from unconventional shale gas extraction and processing (E&P) operations. The breakdown products of CS2; carbonyl sulfide (COS), carbon monoxide (CO), and sulfur dioxide (SO2) are indirect greenhouse gases (GHGs) that contribute to CO2 levels in the atmosphere. The heat-trapping nature of CO2 has been found to increase the surface temperature, resulting in regional and global climate change. The purpose of this study is to identify five mechanisms by which CS2 and the breakdown products of CS2 contribute to atmospheric concentrations of CO2. The five mechanisms of CO2 formation are as follows: Chemical Interaction of CS2 and hydrogen sulfide (H2S) present in natural gas at high temperatures, resulting in CO2 formation;Combustion of CS2 in the presence of oxygen producing SO2 and CO2;Photolysis of CS2 leading to the formation of COS, CO, and SO2, which are indirect contributors to CO2 formation;One-step hydrolysis of CS2, producing reactive intermediates and ultimately forming H2S and CO2;Two-step hydrolysis of CS2 forming the reactive COS intermediate that reacts with an additional water molecule, ultimately forming H2S and CO2. CS2 and COS additionally are implicated in the formation of SO2 in the stratosphere and/or troposphere. SO2 is an indirect contributor to CO2 formation and is implicated in global climate change.
Cyclo-octafluorobutane (PFC-318) in the global atmosphere
Muhle, J.; Vollmer, M. K.; Fraser, P. J.; Rhee, T. S.; Ivy, D. J.; Arnold, T.; Harth, C. M.; Salameh, P.; O'Doherty, S.; Young, D.; Steele, P.; Krummel, P. B.; Leist, M.; Schmidbauer, N.; Lunder, C.; Kim, J.; Kim, K.; Reimann, S.; Simmonds, P.; Prinn, R. G.; Weiss, R. F.
2010-12-01
PFC-318 (c-C4F8, cyclo-octafluorobutane) is a long-lived (3200 years) perfluorocarbon (PFC) greenhouse gas with a high 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP100 = 10,300) and a wide range of industrial uses. We extend previous atmospheric measurements of PFC-318 in the Cape Grim Air Archive (Oram, 1999) with our new in situ measurements from remote and urban AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment) and affiliated stations. Our longest in situ record is from the Jungfraujoch observatory in the Swiss Alps, and our data set is augmented by measurements of flasks from the King Sejong and Troll coastal Antarctic stations and several locations in the Northern Hemisphere. In mid-2009 we find ˜1.25 ppt (parts-per-trillion, dry mol fraction) in the Northern Hemisphere and ˜1.20 ppt in the Southern Hemisphere, with rise rates of ˜0.03 ppt/yr and an interhemispheric ratio of ˜1.04. We obtain PFC-318 emissions for 2008-2010 of ˜1 Gg/yr using a simple box model, and preliminary measurements of older archived air at SIO indicate similar emissions since at the least the late 1990s. In contrast, the EDGAR v4 emissions database estimates much lower PFC-318 emissions of 0.02 Gg/yr for 2005. Using GWP100 we calculate ˜10 million tons of CO2-equivalent PFC-318 emissions/yr for 2008-2010, about double the CO2-equivalent PFC-218 annual emissions, or 0.4 times the CO2-equivalent PFC-116 annual emissions, reported for 2008-2009 by Mühle et al. (2010). Thus PFC-318 is the third most important PFC in terms of CO2-equivalent emissions. We find mostly baseline conditions at remote AGAGE stations and urban sites in the USA, Europe, and Australia, in contrast to frequent above baseline conditions at Gosan station, Jeju Island, South Korea, indicating significant emission sources in East Asia as found by Saito et al. (2010). Oram, D.E., Trends of long-lived anthropogenic halocarbons in the Southern Hemisphere and model calculation of global emissions, Ph.D. thesis, University
Improving InSAR geodesy using Global Atmospheric Models
Jolivet, Romain; Agram, Piyush Shanker; Lin, Nina Y.; Simons, Mark; Doin, Marie-Pierre; Peltzer, Gilles; Li, Zhenghong
2014-03-01
Spatial and temporal variations of pressure, temperature, and water vapor content in the atmosphere introduce significant confounding delays in interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) observations of ground deformation and bias estimates of regional strain rates. Producing robust estimates of tropospheric delays remains one of the key challenges in increasing the accuracy of ground deformation measurements using InSAR. Recent studies revealed the efficiency of global atmospheric reanalysis to mitigate the impact of tropospheric delays, motivating further exploration of their potential. Here we explore the effectiveness of these models in several geographic and tectonic settings on both single interferograms and time series analysis products. Both hydrostatic and wet contributions to the phase delay are important to account for. We validate these path delay corrections by comparing with estimates of vertically integrated atmospheric water vapor content derived from the passive multispectral imager Medium-Resolution Imaging Spectrometer, onboard the Envisat satellite. Generally, the performance of the prediction depends on the vigor of atmospheric turbulence. We discuss (1) how separating atmospheric and orbital contributions allows one to better measure long-wavelength deformation and (2) how atmospheric delays affect measurements of surface deformation following earthquakes, and (3) how such a method allows us to reduce biases in multiyear strain rate estimates by reducing the influence of unevenly sampled seasonal oscillations of the tropospheric delay.
Outcome and value uncertainties in global-change policy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hammitt, J.K.
1995-01-01
Choices among environmental policies can be informed by analysis of the potential physical, biological, and social outcomes of alternative choices, and analysis of social preferences among these outcomes. Frequently, however, the consequences of alternative policies cannot be accurately predicted because of substantial outcome uncertainties concerning physical, chemical, biological, and social processes linking policy choices to consequences. Similarly, assessments of social preferences among alternative outcomes are limited by value uncertainties arising from limitations of moral principles, the absence of economic markets for many environmental attributes, and other factors. Outcome and value uncertainties relevant to global-change policy are described and their magnitudes are examined for two cases: stratospheric-ozone depletion and global climate change. Analysis of information available in the mid 1980s, when international ozone regulations were adopted, suggests that contemporary uncertainties surrounding CFC emissions and the atmospheric response were so large that plausible ozone depletion, absent regulation, ranged from negligible to catastrophic, a range that exceeded the plausible effect of the regulations considered. Analysis of climate change suggests that, important as outcome uncertainties are, uncertainties about values may be even more important for policy choice. 53 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs
TRENDS '90: A compendium of data on global change
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W. (eds.); Boden, T.A.; Kanciruk, P.; Farrell, M.P.
1990-08-01
This document is a source of frequently used global change data. This first issue includes estimates for global and national CO{sub 2} emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and from the production of cement, historical and modern records of atmospheric CO{sub 2} and methane concentrations, and several long-term temperature records. Included are tabular and graphical presentations of the data, discussions of trends in the data, and references to publications that provide further information. Data are presented in a two-page format, each dealing with a different data set. All data are available in digital form from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.
Natural and anthropogenic pollution of the global atmosphere
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jaworowski, Z.
1999-01-01
Results of determination of natural radionuclides, fission products and heavy metals in contemporary and pre-industrial ice from 14 glaciers in Southern and Northern Hemisphere, and in aerosols collected during three decades from seven altitudes between 0 and 15 km in the troposphere and atmosphere, were used for determinations of fluxes of man-made and natural pollutants into the global atmosphere. For these determinations 137 Cs from nuclear explosions and natural 210 Pb were used as tracers. Concentration of natural radionuclides and heavy metals in ice deposited before industrial revolution were higher than the contemporary precipitation presented as firn in high mountain and polar glaciers. This is due probably to volcanic activity which was higher before the first part of 20 th century. Man-made contribution to the total atmospheric flux is now 3.5% for 226 Ra, 12% for U, 7.4% for Pb, 011% for Cd, 62% for V and 5.8 for Hg. The mass of annual global wet precipitation, determined for the first time with radioactive tracers, is 5.7·10 1 7 kg. In Poland the lowest concentration of stable lead in human bones is now in highly industrialized southern districts. Lead level in medieval human bones from these districts reached up to 370 μg/g. Its current average level in inhabitants of southern Poland is 3.5 μg/g, i. e. similar as 1800 years ago. (author)
GFDL CM2.1 Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model Water ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. GFDL CM2.1 Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model Water Hosing Experiment with 1 Sv equivalent of Freshening Control Expt: 100 yrs After Hosing: 300 yrs.
Measuring the Earth System in a Time of Global Environmental Change with Image Spectroscopy
Green, Robert O.
2005-01-01
Measuring the Earth system in a time of global environmental change. Imaging Spectroscopy enables remote measurement. Remote Measurement determination of the properties of the Earth's surface and atmosphere through the physics, chemistry and biology of the interaction of electromagnetic energy with matter.
Emergence of global scaling behaviour in the coupled Earth-atmosphere interaction
Fallah, Bijan; Saberi, Abbas Ali; Sodoudi, Sahar
2016-01-01
Scale invariance property in the global geometry of Earth may lead to a coupled interactive behaviour between various components of the climate system. One of the most interesting correlations exists between spatial statistics of the global topography and the temperature on Earth. Here we show that the power-law behaviour observed in the Earth topography via different approaches, resembles a scaling law in the global spatial distribution of independent atmospheric parameters. We report on obs...
Preliminary assessment of the performance of a global coupled atmosphere-ocean model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cubasch, U.
1990-01-01
A low-resolution version of the ECMWF global atmosphere model has been coupled to a global ocean model developed at the Max Planck Institute in Hamburg. The atmosphere model is driven by the sea surface temperature and the ice thickness calculated by the ocean model, which, in return, is driven by the wind stress, the heat flux and the freshwater flux diagnosed by the atmosphere model. Even though each model reaches stationarity when integrated on its own, the coupling of both creates problems, since the fields calculated by each model are not consistent with the ones the other model has to have in order to stay stationary, because some of the fluxes are not balanced. In the coupled experiment the combined ocean-atmosphere system drifts toward a colder state. To counteract this problem, a flux correction has been applied which balances the mean biases of each model. This method almost eliminates the climate drift of the coupled model. Problems still arise over ice covered regions
Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.
1994-05-01
This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals
Earth Rotation and Coupling to Changes in Atmospheric Angular Momentum
Rosen, Richard D.; Frey, H. (Technical Monitor)
2000-01-01
The research supported under the contract dealt primarily with: (a) the mechanisms responsible for the exchange of angular momentum between the solid Earth and atmosphere; (b) the quality of the data sets used to estimate atmospheric angular momentum; and (c) the ability of these data and of global climate models to detect low-frequency signals in the momentum and, hence, circulation of the atmosphere. Three scientific papers reporting on the results of this research were produced during the course of the contract. These papers identified the particular torques responsible for the peak in atmospheric angular momentum and length-of-day during the 1982-93 El Nino event, and, more generally, the relative roles of torques over land and ocean in explaining the broad spectrum of variability in the length-of-day. In addition, a tendency for interannual variability in atmospheric angular momentum to increase during the last several decades of the 20th century was found in both observations and a global climate model experiment.
Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth-system processes
Saltzman, Barry; Ebisuzaki, Wesley; Maasch, Kirk A.; Oglesby, Robert; Pandolfo, Lionel
1991-01-01
General Circulation Model (GCM) studies of the atmospheric response to change boundary conditions are discussed. Results are reported on an extensive series of numerical studies based on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM) general circulation model. In these studies the authors determined the response to systematic changes in atmospheric CO2 ranging from 100 to 1000 ppm; to changes in the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) in the Gulf of Mexico, such as occurred during the deglaciation phase of the last ice age; to changes in soil moisture over North America; and to changes in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere. Study results show that the response of surface temperature and other variables is nearly logarithmic, with lower levels of CO2 implying greater sensitivity of the atmospheric state to changes in CO2. It was found that the surface temperature of the Gulf of Mexico exerts considerable control over the storm track and behavior of storm systems over the North Atlantic through its influence on evaporation and the source of latent heat. It was found that reductions in soil moisture can play a significant role in amplifying and maintaining North American drought, particularly when a negative soil moisture anomaly prevails late in the spring.
Modeling seasonal changes of atmospheric carbon dioxide and carbon 13
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gillette, D.A.; Box, E.O.
1986-01-01
A two-dimensional (latitude-altitude) model of atmospheric CO 2 and δ 13 C was constructed to simulate some features of seasonal carbon cycle fluctuations. The model simulates air-sea exchange, atmospheric diffusion, and fossil fuel carbon sources, which are functions of time and latitude. In addition, it uses biosphere-atmosphere fluxes of carbon that are based on global-scale biological models of vegetation growth and decay. Results of the model show fair agreement with observational results for CO 2 and δ 13 C seasonal fluctuations. Their model results have far northern fluctuations with smaller amplitudes than are observed. Analysis of sources of CO 2 change at given latitudes shows that, for far southern latitudes, southern hemisphere biospheric fluxes are dominant in affecting the seasonal CO 2 fluctuations. Long-term decrease of δ 13 C for the model is larger than for observations. This may be due to errors in the formulation for oceanic fluxes for 13 C in the model or to a net uptake of carbon by the biosphere
Steptoe, H.; Jones, S. E. O.; Fox, H.
2018-03-01
Occurrences of concurrent extreme atmospheric hazards represent a significant area of uncertainty for organizations involved in disaster mitigation and risk management. Understanding risks posed by natural disasters and their relationship with global climate drivers is crucial in preparing for extreme events. In this review we quantify the strength of the physical mechanisms linking hazards and atmosphere-ocean processes. We demonstrate how research from the science community may be used to support disaster risk reduction and global sustainable development efforts. We examine peer-reviewed literature connecting 16 regions affected by extreme atmospheric hazards and eight key global drivers of weather and climate. We summarize current understanding of multihazard disaster risk in each of these regions and identify aspects of the global climate system that require further investigation to strengthen our resilience in these areas. We show that some drivers can increase the risk of concurrent hazards across different regions. Organizations that support disaster risk reduction, or underwrite exposure, in multiple regions may have a heightened risk of facing multihazard losses. We find that 15 regional hazards share connections via the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, with the Indian Ocean Dipole, North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Southern Annular Mode being secondary sources of significant regional interconnectivity. From a hazard perspective, rainfall over China shares the most connections with global drivers and has links to both Northern and Southern Hemisphere modes of variability. We use these connections to assess the global likelihood of concurrent hazard occurrence in support of multihazard resilience and disaster risk reduction goals.
Towards monitoring land-cover and land-use changes at a global scale: the global land survey 2005
Gutman, G.; Byrnes, Raymond A.; Masek, J.; Covington, S.; Justice, C.; Franks, S.; Headley, Rachel
2008-01-01
Land cover is a critical component of the Earth system, infl uencing land-atmosphere interactions, greenhouse gas fl uxes, ecosystem health, and availability of food, fi ber, and energy for human populations. The recent Integrated Global Observations of Land (IGOL) report calls for the generation of maps documenting global land cover at resolutions between 10m and 30m at least every fi ve years (Townshend et al., in press). Moreover, despite 35 years of Landsat observations, there has not been a unifi ed global analysis of land-cover trends nor has there been a global assessment of land-cover change at Landsat-like resolution. Since the 1990s, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have supported development of data sets based on global Landsat observations (Tucker et al., 2004). These land survey data sets, usually referred to as GeoCover ™, provide global, orthorectifi ed, typically cloud-free Landsat imagery centered on the years 1975, 1990, and 2000, with a preference for leaf-on conditions. Collectively, these data sets provided a consistent set of observations to assess land-cover changes at a decadal scale. These data are freely available via the Internet from the USGS Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) (see http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov or http://glovis.usgs.gov). This has resulted in unprecedented downloads of data, which are widely used in scientifi c studies of land-cover change (e.g., Boone et al., 2007; Harris et al., 2005; Hilbert, 2006; Huang et al. 2007; Jantz et al., 2005, Kim et al., 2007; Leimgruber, 2005; Masek et al., 2006). NASA and USGS are continuing to support land-cover change research through the development of GLS2005 - an additional global Landsat assessment circa 20051 . Going beyond the earlier initiatives, this data set will establish a baseline for monitoring changes on a 5-year interval and will pave the way toward continuous global land
Comment on 'Current Budget of the Atmospheric Electric Global Circuit'
Driscoll, Kevin T.; Blakeslee, Richard J.
1996-01-01
In this paper, three major issues relevant to Kasemir's new model will be addressed. The first concerns Kasemir's assertion that there are significant differences between the potentials associated with the new model and the conventional model. A recalculation of these potentials reveals that both models provide equivalent results for the potential difference between the Earth and ionosphere. The second issue to be addressed is Kasemir's assertion that discrepancies in the electric potentials associated with both models can be attributed to modeling the Earth as a sphere, instead of as a planar surface. A simple analytical comparison will demonstrate that differences in the equations for the potentials of the atmosphere derived with a spherical and a planar Earth are negligible for applications to global current flow. Finally, the third issue to be discussed is Kasemir's claim that numerous aspects of the conventional model are incorrect, including the role of the ionosphere in global current flow as well as the significance of cloud-to-ground lightning in supplying charge to the global circuit. In order to refute these misconceptions, it will be shown that these aspects related to the flow of charge in the atmosphere are accurately described by the conventional model of the global circuit.
Philip, Sajeev; Johnson, Matthew S.; Potter, Christopher S.; Genovese, Vanessa
2016-01-01
Atmospheric mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2) are largely controlled by anthropogenic emission sources and biospheric sources/sinks. Global biospheric fluxes of CO2 are controlled by complex processes facilitating the exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. These processes which play a key role in these terrestrial ecosystem-atmosphere carbon exchanges are currently not fully understood, resulting in large uncertainties in the quantification of biospheric CO2 fluxes. Current models with these inherent deficiencies have difficulties simulating the global carbon cycle with high accuracy. We are developing a new modeling platform, GEOS-Chem-CASA by integrating the year-specific NASA-CASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration - Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) biosphere model with the GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observation System-Chemistry) chemical transport model to improve the simulation of atmosphere-terrestrial ecosystem carbon exchange. We use NASA-CASA to explicitly represent the exchange of CO2 between terrestrial ecosystem and atmosphere by replacing the baseline GEOS-Chem land net CO2 flux and forest biomass burning CO2 emissions. We will present the estimation and evaluation of these "bottom-up" land CO2 fluxes, simulated atmospheric mixing ratios, and forest disturbance changes over the last decade. In addition, we will present our initial comparison of atmospheric column-mean dry air mole fraction of CO2 predicted by the model and those retrieved from NASA's OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2) satellite instrument and model-predicted surface CO2 mixing ratios with global in situ observations. This evaluation is the first step necessary for our future work planned to constrain the estimates of biospheric carbon fluxes through "top-down" inverse modeling, which will improve our understanding of the processes controlling atmosphere-terrestrial ecosystem greenhouse gas exchanges, especially over regions which lack in
Zickfeld, K.; Azevedo, D.
2017-12-01
The majority of emissions scenarios that limit warming to 2°C, and nearly all emission scenarios that do not exceed 1.5°C warming by the year 2100 require artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies in these scenarios are required to offset emissions from sectors that are difficult or costly to decarbonize and to generate global `net negative' emissions, allowing to compensate for earlier emissions and to meet long-term climate stabilization targets after overshoot. Only a few studies have explored the Earth system response to CDR and large uncertainties exist regarding the effect of CDR on the carbon cycle and its effectiveness in reversing climate impacts after overshoot. Here we explore the effectiveness of CDR in lowering atmospheric CO2 ("carbon cycle effectiveness") and cool global climate ("cooling effectiveness"). We force the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model, a model of intermediate complexity, with a set of negative CO2 emissions pulses of different magnitude and applied from different background atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We find the carbon cycle effectiveness of CDR - defined as the change in atmospheric CO2 per unit CO2 removed - decreases with the amount of CO2 removed from the atmosphere and increases at higher background CO2 concentrations from which CDR is applied due to nonlinear responses of carbon sinks to CO2 and climate. The cooling effectiveness - defined as the change in global mean surface air temperature per unit CO2 removed - on the other hand, is largely insensitive to the amount of CO2 removed, but decreases if CDR is applied at higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations, due to the logarithmic relationship between atmospheric CO2 and radiative forcing. Based on our results we conclude that CDR is more effective in restoring a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration and reversing impacts directly linked to CO2 at lower levels of overshoot. CDR's effectiveness in restoring a
Rapid global ocean-atmosphere response to Southern Ocean freshening during the last glacial.
Turney, Chris S M; Jones, Richard T; Phipps, Steven J; Thomas, Zoë; Hogg, Alan; Kershaw, A Peter; Fogwill, Christopher J; Palmer, Jonathan; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Adolphi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund; Hughen, Konrad A; Staff, Richard A; Grosvenor, Mark; Golledge, Nicholas R; Rasmussen, Sune Olander; Hutchinson, David K; Haberle, Simon; Lorrey, Andrew; Boswijk, Gretel; Cooper, Alan
2017-09-12
Contrasting Greenland and Antarctic temperatures during the last glacial period (115,000 to 11,650 years ago) are thought to have been driven by imbalances in the rates of formation of North Atlantic and Antarctic Deep Water (the 'bipolar seesaw'). Here we exploit a bidecadally resolved 14 C data set obtained from New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) to undertake high-precision alignment of key climate data sets spanning iceberg-rafted debris event Heinrich 3 and Greenland Interstadial (GI) 5.1 in the North Atlantic (~30,400 to 28,400 years ago). We observe no divergence between the kauri and Atlantic marine sediment 14 C data sets, implying limited changes in deep water formation. However, a Southern Ocean (Atlantic-sector) iceberg rafted debris event appears to have occurred synchronously with GI-5.1 warming and decreased precipitation over the western equatorial Pacific and Atlantic. An ensemble of transient meltwater simulations shows that Antarctic-sourced salinity anomalies can generate climate changes that are propagated globally via an atmospheric Rossby wave train.A challenge for testing mechanisms of past climate change is the precise correlation of palaeoclimate records. Here, through climate modelling and the alignment of terrestrial, ice and marine 14 C and 10 Be records, the authors show that Southern Ocean freshwater hosing can trigger global change.
Obrist, Daniel; Kirk, Jane L; Zhang, Lei; Sunderland, Elsie M; Jiskra, Martin; Selin, Noelle E
2018-03-01
most terrestrial environments now are considered net sinks of atmospheric Hg due to substantial Hg uptake by plants. Litterfall deposition by plants is now estimated at 1020-1230 Mg/year globally. Stable isotope analysis and direct flux measurements provide evidence that in many ecosystems Hg 0 deposition via plant inputs dominates, accounting for 57-94% of Hg in soils. Of global aquatic Hg releases, around 50% are estimated to occur in China and India, where Hg drains into the West Pacific and North Indian Oceans. A first inventory of global freshwater Hg suggests that inland freshwater Hg releases may be dominated by artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM; approximately 880 Mg/year), industrial and wastewater releases (220 Mg/year), and terrestrial mobilization (170-300 Mg/year). For pelagic ocean regions, the dominant source of Hg is atmospheric deposition; an exception is the Arctic Ocean, where riverine and coastal erosion is likely the dominant source. Ocean water Hg concentrations in the North Atlantic appear to have declined during the last several decades but have increased since the mid-1980s in the Pacific due to enhanced atmospheric deposition from the Asian continent. Finally, we provide examples of ongoing and anticipated changes in Hg cycling due to emission, climate, and land use changes. It is anticipated that future emissions changes will be strongly dependent on ASGM, as well as energy use scenarios and technology requirements implemented under the Minamata Convention. We predict that land use and climate change impacts on Hg cycling will be large and inherently linked to changes in ecosystem function and global atmospheric and ocean circulations. Our ability to predict multiple and simultaneous changes in future Hg global cycling and human exposure is rapidly developing but requires further enhancement.
Explicit calculation of indirect global warming potentials for halons using atmospheric models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
D. J. Wuebbles
2009-11-01
Full Text Available The concept of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs has been extensively used in policy consideration as a relative index for comparing the climate impact of an emitted greenhouse gas (GHG, relative to carbon dioxide with equal mass emissions. Ozone depletion due to emission of chlorinated or brominated halocarbons leads to cooling of the climate system in the opposite direction to the direct warming contribution by halocarbons as GHGs. This cooling is a key indirect effect of the halocarbons on climatic radiative forcing, which is accounted for by indirect GWPs. With respect to climate, it is critical to understand net influences considering direct warming and indirect cooling effects especially for Halons due to the greater ozone-depleting efficiency of bromine over chlorine. Until now, the indirect GWPs have been calculated using a parameterized approach based on the concept of Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC and the observed ozone depletion over the last few decades. As a step towards obtaining indirect GWPs through a more robust approach, we use atmospheric models to explicitly calculate the indirect GWPs of Halon-1211 and Halon-1301 for a 100-year time horizon. State-of-the-art global chemistry-transport models (CTMs were used as the computational tools to derive more realistic ozone depletion changes caused by an added pulse emission of the two major Halons at the surface. The radiative forcings on climate from the ozone changes have been calculated for indirect GWPs using an atmospheric radiative transfer model (RTM. The simulated temporal variations of global average total column Halons after a pulse perturbation follow an exponential decay with an e-folding time which is consistent with the expected chemical lifetimes of the Halons. Our calculated indirect GWPs for the two Halons are much smaller than those from past studies but are within a single standard deviation of WMO (2007 values and the direct GWP values derived
GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #8: OUR CHANGING PLANET: THE FY2000 U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM
This edition of Global Change Research News focuses on the publication of the new OurChanging Planet: The FY2000 U.S. Global Change Research Program. This annual report to the Congress was prepared under the auspices ofthe President's National Science and Technology Council. It...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Boucher, Olivier; Collins, Bill; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Shine, Keith P
2009-01-01
Methane is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere next to carbon dioxide. Its global warming potential (GWP) for a time horizon of 100 years is 25, which makes it an attractive target for climate mitigation policies. Although the methane GWP traditionally includes the methane indirect effects on the concentrations of ozone and stratospheric water vapour, it does not take into account the production of carbon dioxide from methane oxidation. We argue here that this CO 2 -induced effect should be included for fossil sources of methane, which results in slightly larger GWP values for all time horizons. If the global temperature change potential is used as an alternative climate metric, then the impact of the CO 2 -induced effect is proportionally much larger. We also discuss what the correction term should be for methane from anthropogenic biogenic sources.
Arias, P.; Fu, R.; Li, W.
2007-12-01
Tropical forests play a key role in determining the global carbon-climate feedback in the 21st century. Changes in rainforest growth and mortality rates, especially in the deep and least perturbed forest areas, have been consistently observed across global tropics in recent years. Understanding the underlying causes of these changes, especially their links to the global climate change, is especially important in determining the future of the tropical rainforests in the 21st century. Previous studies have mostly focus on the potential influences from elevated atmospheric CO2 and increasing surface temperature. Because the rainforests in wet tropical region is often light limited, we explore whether cloudiness have changed, if so, whether it is consistent with that expected from changes in forest growth rate. We will report our observational analysis examining the trends in annual average shortwave (SW) downwelling radiation, total cloud cover, and cumulus cover over the tropical land regions and to link them with trends in convective available potencial energy (CAPE). ISCCP data and radiosonde records available from the Department of Atmospheric Sciences of the University of Wyoming (http://www.weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html) are used to study the trends. The period for the trend analysis is 1984-2004 for the ISCCP data and 1980-2006 for the radiosondes. The results for the Amazon rainforest region suggest a decreasing trend in total cloud and convective cloud covers, which results in an increase in downwelling SW radiation at the surface. These changes of total and convective clouds are consistent with a trend of decreasing CAPE and an elevated Level of Free Convection (LFC) height, as obtained from the radiosondes. All the above mentioned trends are statistically significant based on the Mann-Kendall test with 95% of confidence. These results consistently suggest the downward surface solar radiation has been increasing since 1984, result from a decrease
Glacial-interglacial atmospheric CO2 change: a possible
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
L. C. Skinner
2009-09-01
Full Text Available So far, the exploration of possible mechanisms for glacial atmospheric CO2 drawdown and marine carbon sequestration has tended to focus on dynamic or kinetic processes (i.e. variable mixing-, equilibration- or export rates. Here an attempt is made to underline instead the possible importance of changes in the standing volumes of intra-oceanic carbon reservoirs (i.e. different water-masses in influencing the total marine carbon inventory. By way of illustration, a simple mechanism is proposed for enhancing the marine carbon inventory via an increase in the volume of relatively cold and carbon-enriched deep water, analogous to modern Lower Circumpolar Deep Water (LCDW, filling the ocean basins. A set of simple box-model experiments confirm the expectation that a deep sea dominated by an expanded LCDW-like watermass holds more CO2, without any pre-imposed changes in ocean overturning rate, biological export or ocean-atmosphere exchange. The magnitude of this "standing volume effect" (which operates by boosting the solubility- and biological pumps might be as large as the contributions that have previously been attributed to carbonate compensation, terrestrial biosphere reduction or ocean fertilisation for example. By providing a means of not only enhancing but also driving changes in the efficiency of the biological- and solubility pumps, this standing volume mechanism may help to reduce the amount of glacial-interglacial CO2 change that remains to be explained by other mechanisms that are difficult to assess in the geological archive, such as reduced mass transport or mixing rates in particular. This in turn could help narrow the search for forcing conditions capable of pushing the global carbon cycle between glacial and interglacial modes.
The politics of atmospheric sciences: "nuclear winter" and global climate change.
Dörries, Matthias
2011-01-01
This article, by exploring the individual and collective trajectories that led to the "nuclear winter" debate, examines what originally drew scientists on both sides of the controversy to this research. Stepping back from the day-to-day action and looking at the larger cultural and political context of nuclear winter reveals sometimes surprising commonalities among actors who found themselves on opposing sides, as well as differences within the apparently coherent TTAPS group (the theory's originators: Richard P. Turco, Owen Brian Toon, Thomas P. Ackerman, James B. Pollack, and Carl Sagan). This story foreshadows that of recent research on anthropogenic climate change, which was substantially shaped during this--apparently tangential--cold war debate of the 1980s about research on the global effects of nuclear weapons.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Levine, J.S.
1991-01-01
Present processes of global climate change are reviewed. The processes determining global temperature are briefly described and the concept of effective temperature is elucidated. The greenhouse effect is examined, including the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. 18 refs
The effect of millennial-scale changes in Arabian Sea denitrification on atmospheric CO2
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Altabet, M.A.; Higginson, M.J.; Murray, D.W.
2002-01-01
Most global biogeochemical processes are known to respond to climate change, some of which have the capacity to produce feedbacks through the regulation of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Marine denitrification - the reduction of nitrate to gaseous nitrogen - is an important process in this regard, affecting greenhouse gas concentrations directly through the incidental production of nitrous oxide, and indirectly through modification of the marine nitrogen inventory and hence the biological pump for C0 2 . Although denitrification has been shown to vary with glacial-interglacial cycles, its response to more rapid climate change has not yet been well characterized. Here we present nitrogen isotope ratio, nitrogen content and chlorin abundance data from sediment cores with high accumulation rates on the Oman continental margin that reveal substantial millennial-scale variability in Arabian Sea denitrification and productivity during the last glacial period. The detailed correspondence of these changes with Dansgaard-Oeschger events recorded in Greenland ice cores indicates rapid, century-scale reorganization of the Arabian Sea ecosystem in response to climate excursions, mediated through the intensity of summer monsoonal upwelling. Considering the several-thousand-year residence time of fixed nitrogen in the ocean, the response of global marine productivity to changes in denitrification would have occurred at lower frequency and appears to be related to climatic and atmospheric C0 2 oscillations observed in Antarctic ice cores between 20 and A kyr ago. (author)
International conference on the role of the polar regions in global change: Proceedings. Volume 2
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Weller, G.; Wilson, C.L.; Severin, B.A.B. [eds.
1991-12-01
The International Conference on the Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change took place on the campus of the University of Alaska Fairbanks on June 11--15, 1990. The goal of the conference was to define and summarize the state of knowledge on the role of the polar regions in global change, and to identify gaps in knowledge. To this purpose experts in a wide variety of relevant disciplines were invited to present papers and hold panel discussions. While there are numerous conferences on global change, this conference dealt specifically with the polar regions which occupy key positions in the global system. These two volumes of conference proceedings include papers on (1) detection and monitoring of change; (2) climate variability and climate forcing; (3) ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere interactions and processes; and (4) effects on biota and biological feedbacks; (5) ice sheet, glacier and permafrost responses and feedbacks, (6) paleoenvironmental studies; and, (7) aerosol and trace gases.
International conference on the role of the polar regions in global change: Proceedings. Volume 1
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Weller, G.; Wilson, C.L.; Severin, B.A.B. [eds.
1991-12-01
The International Conference on the Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change took place on the campus of the University of Alaska Fairbanks on June 11--15, 1990. The goal of the conference was to define and summarize the state of knowledge on the role of the polar regions in global change, and to identify gaps in knowledge. To this purpose experts in a wide variety of relevant disciplines were invited to present papers and hold panel discussions. While there are numerous conferences on global change, this conference dealt specifically with polar regions which occupy key positions in the global system. These two volumes of conference proceedings include papers on (1) detection and monitoring of change; (2) climate variability and climate forcing; (3) ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere interactions and processes; (4) effects on biota and biological feedbacks; (5) ice sheet, glacier and permafrost responses and feedbacks; (6) paleoenvironmental studies; and, (7) aerosols and trace gases.
Global change and marine communities: Alien species and climate change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Occhipinti-Ambrogi, Anna
2007-01-01
Anthropogenic influences on the biosphere since the advent of the industrial age are increasingly causing global changes. Climatic change and the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are ranking high in scientific and public agendas, and other components of global change are also frequently addressed, among which are the introductions of non indigenous species (NIS) in biogeographic regions well separated from the donor region, often followed by spectacular invasions. In the marine environment, both climatic change and spread of alien species have been studied extensively; this review is aimed at examining the main responses of ecosystems to climatic change, taking into account the increasing importance of biological invasions. Some general principles on NIS introductions in the marine environment are recalled, such as the importance of propagule pressure and of development stages during the time course of an invasion. Climatic change is known to affect many ecological properties; it interacts also with NIS in many possible ways. Direct (proximate) effects on individuals and populations of altered physical-chemical conditions are distinguished from indirect effects on emergent properties (species distribution, diversity, and production). Climatically driven changes may affect both local dispersal mechanisms, due to the alteration of current patterns, and competitive interactions between NIS and native species, due to the onset of new thermal optima and/or different carbonate chemistry. As well as latitudinal range expansions of species correlated with changing temperature conditions, and effects on species richness and the correlated extinction of native species, some invasions may provoke multiple effects which involve overall ecosystem functioning (material flow between trophic groups, primary production, relative extent of organic material decomposition, extent of benthic-pelagic coupling). Some examples are given, including a special
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) provides numerical guidance and products in support of a wide range of Navy oceanographic and...
Comparing Forecasts of the Global Impacts of Climate Change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mendelsohn, R.; Williams, L.
2004-01-01
This paper utilizes the predictions of several Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models and the Global Impact Model to create forecasts of the global market impacts from climate change. The forecasts of market impacts in 2100 vary considerably depending on climate scenarios and climate impact sensitivity. The models do concur that tropical nations will be hurt, temperate nations will be barely affected, and high latitude nations will benefit. Although the size of these effects varies a great deal across models, the beneficial and harmful effects are offsetting, so that the net impact on the globe is relatively small in almost all outcomes. Looking only at market impacts, the forecasts suggest that while the global net benefits of abatement are small, the distribution of damages suggests a large equity problem that could be addressed through a compensation program. The large uncertainty surrounding these forecasts further suggests that continued monitoring of both the climate and impacts is worthwhile
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Despres, L.; Hossaert-Mckey, M.; Martin, J.F.; Pont, D.; Valero, M.; Chave, J.; Benizri, E.; Amiaud, B.; Boury-Esnault, N.; Fritz, H.; Lavelle, P.; Martin, F.; Poulet, S.; Blanchard, F.; Cheddadi, R.; Dupouey, J.L.; Hulle, M.; Michaux, J.; Souissi, S.; Bridault, A.; Dambrine, E.; Gomez, B.; Thevenard, F.; Legendre, S.; Suc, J.P.; Zeitoun, V.; Bezancon, G.; Frascaria-Lacoste, N.; Ponsard, S.; Bourguet, D.; Vigne, J.D.; Doyen, L.; Joly, P.; Gourlet-Fleury, S.; Garnier, E.; Lebaron, Ph.; Boulinier, Th.; Chuine, I.; Jiguet, F.; Couvet, D.; Soussana, J.F.; Weimerskirsch, H.; Grosbois, V.; Bretagnolle, V.
2006-01-01
Global change is the consequence of the worldwide human print on ecology. The uncontrolled use of fossil fuels, the urbanization, the intensifying of agriculture, the homogenization of life styles and cultures, the homogenization of fauna and vegetation, the commercial trades, the bio-invasions, the over-exploitation of resources and the emergence of new economic powers (China, India, Brazil..) represent an adaptative dynamics of interactions which affects the overall biosphere and the adaptative capacities and the future of all species. Biodiversity is an ecological and societal insurance against the risks and uncertainties linked with global change. The French institute of biodiversity (IFB) has created a working group in charge of a study on global change and biodiversity, in particular in terms of: speed and acceleration of processes, interaction between the different organization levels of the world of living, scale changes, and adaptative capacities. 38 projects with an interdisciplinary approach have been retained by the IFB and the Ministry of ecology and sustainable development. The conclusion of these projects were presented at this restitution colloquium and are summarized in this document. The presentations are organized in 7 sessions dealing with: global changes and adaptation mechanisms; functional responses to global changes; spatial responses to global changes; temporal responses to global changes; selective answers to global changes; available tools and ecological services; scenarios and projections. (J.S.)
Impact of global climate change on regional air quality: Introduction to the thematic issue
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vautard, R.; Hauglustaine, D.
2007-01-01
Despite the major international efforts devoted to the understanding and to the future estimate of global climate change and its impact on regional scale processes, the evolution of the atmospheric composition in a changing climate is far to be understood. In particular, the future evolution of the concentration of near-surface pollutants determining air quality at a scale affecting human health and ecosystems is a subject of intense scientific research. This thematic issue reviews the current scientific knowledge of the consequences of global climate change on regional air quality and its related impact on the biosphere and on human mortality. This article provides a presentation of the key issues, summarizes the current knowledge, and introduces the thematic issue. (authors)
Mycorrhizas and global environmental change: Research at different scales
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Staddon, P.L.; Heinemeyer, A.; Fitter, A.H.
2002-01-01
Global environmental change (GEC), in particular rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature, will affect most ecosystems. The varied responses of plants to these aspects of GEC are well documented. As with other key below-ground components of terrestrial ecosystems, the response...... of the ubiquitous mycorrhizal fungal root symbionts has received limited attention. Most of the research on the effects of GEC on mycorrhizal fungi has been pot-based with a few field (especially monoculture) studies. A major question that arises in all these studies is whether the GEC effects on the mycorrhizal...
Particle pollution changes the atmospheric circulation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kristjansson, Jon Egill; Iversen, Trond; Kirkevaag, Alf; Seland, Oeyvind; Debernard, Jens; Roeed, Lars Petter
2002-01-01
Industrial emissions and combustion of fossil fuels create large amounts of sulfate- and carbon containing soot particles. These mix with natural particles to change the natural aerosols. Such anthropogenic changes in the aerosols may have a great impact on the climate of the earth. Altered properties of the aerosols may change the atmosphere's absorption and reflection of solar radiation and contribute to heating or cooling. This is the direct effect. Changes in the properties of aerosols may also affect the number and size of recently formed cloud droplets. This may change the ability of the clouds to reflect solar radiation and to produce precipitation. This is the indirect effect. Recent research at the University of Oslo shows that anthropogenic particles significantly change the atmospheric circulation, in particular in the tropics, but also at European latitudes
Gottschalk, Julia; Skinner, Luke C; Lippold, Jörg; Vogel, Hendrik; Frank, Norbert; Jaccard, Samuel L; Waelbroeck, Claire
2016-05-17
Millennial-scale climate changes during the last glacial period and deglaciation were accompanied by rapid changes in atmospheric CO2 that remain unexplained. While the role of the Southern Ocean as a 'control valve' on ocean-atmosphere CO2 exchange has been emphasized, the exact nature of this role, in particular the relative contributions of physical (for example, ocean dynamics and air-sea gas exchange) versus biological processes (for example, export productivity), remains poorly constrained. Here we combine reconstructions of bottom-water [O2], export production and (14)C ventilation ages in the sub-Antarctic Atlantic, and show that atmospheric CO2 pulses during the last glacial- and deglacial periods were consistently accompanied by decreases in the biological export of carbon and increases in deep-ocean ventilation via southern-sourced water masses. These findings demonstrate how the Southern Ocean's 'organic carbon pump' has exerted a tight control on atmospheric CO2, and thus global climate, specifically via a synergy of both physical and biological processes.
Lague, M. M.; Swann, A. L. S.; Bonan, G. B.
2017-12-01
Past studies have demonstrated how changes in vegetation can impact the atmosphere; however, it is often difficult to identify the exact physical pathway through which vegetation changes drive an atmospheric response. Surface properties (such as vegetation color, or height) control surface energy fluxes, which feed back on the atmosphere on both local and global scales by modifying temperatures, cloud cover, and energy gradients. Understanding how land surface properties influence energy fluxes is crucial for improving our understanding of how vegetation change - past, present, and future - impacts the atmosphere, global climate, and people. We explore the sensitivity of the atmosphere to perturbations of three land surface properties - albedo, roughness, and evaporative resistance - using an idealized land model coupled to an Earth System Model. We derive a relationship telling us how large a change in each surface property is required to drive a local 0.1 K change in 2m air temperature. Using this idealized framework, we are able to separate the influence on the atmosphere of each individual surface property. We demonstrate that the impact of each surface property on the atmosphere is spatially variable - that is, a similar change in vegetation can have different climate impacts if made in different locations. This analysis not only improves our understanding of how the land system can influence climate, but also provides us with a set of theoretical limits on the potential climate impact of arbitrary vegetation change (natural or anthropogenic).
Global change and Canadians: A teacher's guide
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1993-01-01
A report called Global Change and Canadians has been produced by the Royal Society of Canada to answer basic questions being asked about global change issues. A teacher's guide is presented to help teachers make effective use of the report in developing programs with students concerning global change. A basic set of teaching and learning activities related to the major topics in the report is provided, curricular connections between global change topics and school programs are suggested, and some additional resources on global change are listed. The guide is divided into six chapters, each corresponding to the chapters of the global change report. Each chapter contains a summary of the major concepts from the report, some of the learning outcomes that occur when those concepts are addressed, a series of suggested activities or ideas, and a guide for assessing students' abilities relative to the concepts of the chapter. The topics of the chapters cover the nature of global change, the importance of global change to Canada, the causes of global change, the consequences of global change (including climate change and the greenhouse effect), the effects of global change on society, and Canadian responses to global change. 64 refs., 3 figs
Rezende, L F C; Arenque, B C; Aidar, S T; Moura, M S B; Von Randow, C; Tourigny, E; Menezes, R S C; Ometto, J P H B
2016-07-01
Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) simulate surface processes such as the transfer of energy, water, CO2, and momentum between the terrestrial surface and the atmosphere, biogeochemical cycles, carbon assimilation by vegetation, phenology, and land use change in scenarios of varying atmospheric CO2 concentrations. DGVMs increase the complexity and the Earth system representation when they are coupled with atmospheric global circulation models (AGCMs) or climate models. However, plant physiological processes are still a major source of uncertainty in DGVMs. The maximum velocity of carboxylation (Vcmax), for example, has a direct impact over productivity in the models. This parameter is often underestimated or imprecisely defined for the various plant functional types (PFTs) and ecosystems. Vcmax is directly related to photosynthesis acclimation (loss of response to elevated CO2), a widely known phenomenon that usually occurs when plants are subjected to elevated atmospheric CO2 and might affect productivity estimation in DGVMs. Despite this, current models have improved substantially, compared to earlier models which had a rudimentary and very simple representation of vegetation-atmosphere interactions. In this paper, we describe this evolution through generations of models and the main events that contributed to their improvements until the current state-of-the-art class of models. Also, we describe some main challenges for further improvements to DGVMs.
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE--THE TECHNOLOGY CHALLENGE
Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations which are at least partly responsible for the roughly 0.7% degree C global warming earth has experienced since the industrial revolution. With industrial activit...
Is the global rise of asthma an early impact of anthropogenic climate change?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Paul John Beggs
Full Text Available The increase in asthma incidence, prevalence, and morbidity over recent decades presents a significant challenge to public health. Pollen is an important trigger of some types of asthma, and both pollen quantity and season depend on climatic and meteorological variables. Over the same period as the global rise in asthma, there have been considerable increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and global average surface temperature. We hypothesize anthropogenic climate change as a plausible contributor to the rise in asthma. Greater concentrations of carbon dioxide and higher temperatures may increase pollen quantity and induce longer pollen seasons. Pollen allergenicity can also increase as a result of these changes in climate. Exposure in early life to a more allergenic environment may also provoke the development of other atopic conditions, such as eczema and allergic rhinitis. Although the etiology of asthma is complex, the recent global rise in asthma could be an early health effect of anthropogenic climate change.
Engelen, R. J.; Peuch, V. H.
2017-12-01
The European Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) operationally provides daily forecasts of global atmospheric composition and regional air quality. The global forecasting system is using ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), which is used for numerical weather prediction and which has been extended with modules for atmospheric chemistry, aerosols and greenhouse gases. The regional forecasts are produced by an ensemble of seven operational European air quality models that take their boundary conditions from the global system and provide an ensemble median with ensemble spread as their main output. Both the global and regional forecasting systems are feeding their output into air quality models on a variety of scales in various parts of the world. We will introduce the CAMS service chain and provide illustrations of its use in downstream applications. Both the usage of the daily forecasts and the usage of global and regional reanalyses will be addressed.
NASA/MSFC FY91 Global Scale Atmospheric Processes Research Program Review
Leslie, Fred W. (Editor)
1991-01-01
The reports presented at the annual Marshall Research Review of Earth Science and Applications are compiled. The following subject areas are covered: understanding of atmospheric processes in a variety of spatial and temporal scales; measurements of geophysical parameters; measurements on a global scale from space; the Mission to Planet Earth Program (comprised of and Earth Observation System and the scientific strategy to analyze these data); and satellite data analysis and fundamental studies of atmospheric dynamics.
Development of land data sets for studies of global climate change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sadowski, F.G.; Watkins, A.H.
1991-01-01
The U.S. Geological Survey has begun a major initiative to organize, produce, and distribute land data sets that will support the land data requirements of the global change science community. Satellite image data sets, produced from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer sensors, will be developed to provide repetitive, synoptic coverage of regional, continental, and global land areas. These data sets, integrated with related land data and supplemented by coregistered Landsat data sets, will enable scientists to quantify the fundamental land surface attributes that are needed to model land surface processes, to detect and monitor land surface change, and to map land cover. These well-structured, consistent land data sets will form the historical record of land observations prior to the era of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Earth Observing System sensors
CERN. Geneva
2013-01-01
This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...
Perroud, Marjorie; Goyette, StéPhane
2012-06-01
In the companion to the present paper, the one-dimensional k-ɛ lake model SIMSTRAT is coupled to a single-column atmospheric model, nicknamed FIZC, and an application of the coupled model to the deep Lake Geneva, Switzerland, is described. In this paper, the response of Lake Geneva to global warming caused by an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (i.e., 2 × CO2) is investigated. Coupling the models allowed for feedbacks between the lake surface and the atmosphere and produced changes in atmospheric moisture and cloud cover that further modified the downward radiation fluxes. The time evolution of atmospheric variables as well as those of the lake's thermal profile could be reproduced realistically by devising a set of adjustable parameters. In a "control" 1 × CO2 climate experiment, the coupled FIZC-SIMSTRAT model demonstrated genuine skills in reproducing epilimnetic and hypolimnetic temperatures, with annual mean errors and standard deviations of 0.25°C ± 0.25°C and 0.3°C ± 0.15°C, respectively. Doubling the CO2 concentration induced an atmospheric warming that impacted the lake's thermal structure, increasing the stability of the water column and extending the stratified period by 3 weeks. Epilimnetic temperatures were seen to increase by 2.6°C to 4.2°C, while hypolimnion temperatures increased by 2.2°C. Climate change modified components of the surface energy budget through changes mainly in air temperature, moisture, and cloud cover. During summer, reduced cloud cover resulted in an increase in the annual net solar radiation budget. A larger water vapor deficit at the air-water interface induced a cooling effect in the lake.
The oceanic cycle and global atmospheric budget of carbonyl sulfide
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Weiss, P.S.
1994-12-31
A significant portion of stratospheric air chemistry is influenced by the existence of carbonyl sulfide (COS). This ubiquitous sulfur gas represents a major source of sulfur to the stratosphere where it is converted to sulfuric acid aerosol particles. Stratospheric aerosols are climatically important because they scatter incoming solar radiation back to space and are able to increase the catalytic destruction of ozone through gas phase reactions on particle surfaces. COS is primarily formed at the surface of the earth, in both marine and terrestrial environments, and is strongly linked to natural biological processes. However, many gaps in the understanding of the global COS cycle still exist, which has led to a global atmospheric budget that is out of balance by a factor of two or more, and a lack of understanding of how human activity has affected the cycling of this gas. The goal of this study was to focus on COS in the marine environment by investigating production/destruction mechanisms and recalculating the ocean-atmosphere flux.
Atmospheric verification of anthropogenic CO2 emission trends
Francey, Roger J.; Trudinger, Cathy M.; van der Schoot, Marcel; Law, Rachel M.; Krummel, Paul B.; Langenfelds, Ray L.; Paul Steele, L.; Allison, Colin E.; Stavert, Ann R.; Andres, Robert J.; Rödenbeck, Christian
2013-05-01
International efforts to limit global warming and ocean acidification aim to slow the growth of atmospheric CO2, guided primarily by national and industry estimates of production and consumption of fossil fuels. Atmospheric verification of emissions is vital but present global inversion methods are inadequate for this purpose. We demonstrate a clear response in atmospheric CO2 coinciding with a sharp 2010 increase in Asian emissions but show persisting slowing mean CO2 growth from 2002/03. Growth and inter-hemispheric concentration difference during the onset and recovery of the Global Financial Crisis support a previous speculation that the reported 2000-2008 emissions surge is an artefact, most simply explained by a cumulative underestimation (~ 9PgC) of 1994-2007 emissions; in this case, post-2000 emissions would track mid-range of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios. An alternative explanation requires changes in the northern terrestrial land sink that offset anthropogenic emission changes. We suggest atmospheric methods to help resolve this ambiguity.
Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Matthews, H Damon
2017-08-01
The incomplete combustion of vegetation and dead organic matter by landscape fires creates recalcitrant pyrogenic carbon (PyC), which could be consequential for the global carbon budget if changes in fire regime, climate, and atmospheric CO 2 were to substantially affect gains and losses of PyC on land and in oceans. Here, we included global PyC cycling in a coupled climate-carbon model to assess the role of PyC in historical and future simulations, accounting for uncertainties through five sets of parameter estimates. We obtained year-2000 global stocks of (Central estimate, likely uncertainty range in parentheses) 86 (11-154), 47 (2-64), and 1129 (90-5892) Pg C for terrestrial residual PyC (RPyC), marine dissolved PyC, and marine particulate PyC, respectively. PyC cycling decreased atmospheric CO 2 only slightly between 1751 and 2000 (by 0.8 Pg C for the Central estimate) as PyC-related fluxes changed little over the period. For 2000 to 2300, we combined Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 with stable or continuously increasing future fire frequencies. For the increasing future fire regime, the production of new RPyC generally outpaced the warming-induced accelerated loss of existing RPyC, so that PyC cycling decreased atmospheric CO 2 between 2000 and 2300 for most estimates (by 4-8 Pg C for Central). For the stable fire regime, however, PyC cycling usually increased atmospheric CO 2 (by 1-9 Pg C for Central), and only the most extreme choice of parameters maximizing PyC production and minimizing PyC decomposition led to atmospheric CO 2 decreases under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 (by 5-8 Pg C). Our results suggest that PyC cycling will likely reduce the future increase in atmospheric CO 2 if landscape fires become much more frequent; however, in the absence of a substantial increase in fire frequency, PyC cycling might contribute to, rather than mitigate, the future increase in atmospheric CO 2 . © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Atmospheric pressure loading effects on Global Positioning System coordinate determinations
Vandam, Tonie M.; Blewitt, Geoffrey; Heflin, Michael B.
1994-01-01
Earth deformation signals caused by atmospheric pressure loading are detected in vertical position estimates at Global Positioning System (GPS) stations. Surface displacements due to changes in atmospheric pressure account for up to 24% of the total variance in the GPS height estimates. The detected loading signals are larger at higher latitudes where pressure variations are greatest; the largest effect is observed at Fairbanks, Alaska (latitude 65 deg), with a signal root mean square (RMS) of 5 mm. Out of 19 continuously operating GPS sites (with a mean of 281 daily solutions per site), 18 show a positive correlation between the GPS vertical estimates and the modeled loading displacements. Accounting for loading reduces the variance of the vertical station positions on 12 of the 19 sites investigated. Removing the modeled pressure loading from GPS determinations of baseline length for baselines longer than 6000 km reduces the variance on 73 of the 117 baselines investigated. The slight increase in variance for some of the sites and baselines is consistent with expected statistical fluctuations. The results from most stations are consistent with approximately 65% of the modeled pressure load being found in the GPS vertical position measurements. Removing an annual signal from both the measured heights and the modeled load time series leaves this value unchanged. The source of the remaining discrepancy between the modeled and observed loading signal may be the result of (1) anisotropic effects in the Earth's loading response, (2) errors in GPS estimates of tropospheric delay, (3) errors in the surface pressure data, or (4) annual signals in the time series of loading and station heights. In addition, we find that using site dependent coefficients, determined by fitting local pressure to the modeled radial displacements, reduces the variance of the measured station heights as well as or better than using the global convolution sum.
John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole
2016-01-01
We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...
Subterranean karst environments as a global sink for atmospheric methane
Webster, Kevin D.; Drobniak, Agnieszka; Etiope, Giuseppe; Mastalerz, Maria; Sauer, Peter E.; Schimmelmann, Arndt
2018-03-01
The air in subterranean karst cavities is often depleted in methane (CH4) relative to the atmosphere. Karst is considered a potential sink for the atmospheric greenhouse gas CH4 because its subsurface drainage networks and solution-enlarged fractures facilitate atmospheric exchange. Karst landscapes cover about 14% of earth's continental surface, but observations of CH4 concentrations in cave air are limited to localized studies in Gibraltar, Spain, Indiana (USA), Vietnam, Australia, and by incomplete isotopic data. To test if karst is acting as a global CH4 sink, we measured the CH4 concentrations, δ13CCH4, and δ2HCH4 values of cave air from 33 caves in the USA and three caves in New Zealand. We also measured CO2 concentrations, δ13CCO2, and radon (Rn) concentrations to support CH4 data interpretation by assessing cave air residence times and mixing processes. Among these caves, 35 exhibited subatmospheric CH4 concentrations in at least one location compared to their local atmospheric backgrounds. CH4 concentrations, δ13CCH4, and δ2HCH4 values suggest that microbial methanotrophy within caves is the primary CH4 consumption mechanism. Only 5 locations from 3 caves showed elevated CH4 concentrations compared to the atmospheric background and could be ascribed to local CH4 sources from sewage and outgassing swamp water. Several associated δ13CCH4 and δ2HCH4 values point to carbonate reduction and acetate fermentation as biochemical pathways of limited methanogenesis in karst environments and suggest that these pathways occur in the environment over large spatial scales. Our data show that karst environments function as a global CH4 sink.
Freeman, Mervyn; Lam, Mai Mai; Chisham, Gareth
2017-04-01
We use National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis data to show that Antarctic surface air temperature anomalies result from differences in the daily-mean duskward component,By, of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). We find the anomalies have strong geographical and seasonal variations. Regional anomalies are evident poleward of 60˚ S and are of diminishing representative peak amplitude from autumn (3.2˚ C) to winter (2.4˚ C) to spring (1.6˚ C) to summer (0.9˚ C). We demonstrate that anomalies of statistically-significant amplitude are due to geostrophic wind anomalies, resulting from the same By changes, moving air across large meridional gradients in zonal mean air temperature between 60 and 80˚ S. Additionally, we find that the mean tropospheric temperature anomaly for geographical latitudes ≤ -70˚ peaks at about 0.7 K and is statistically significant at the 1 - 5% level between air pressures of 1000 and 500 hPa (i.e., ˜0.1 to 5.6 km altitude above sea level) and for time lags with respect to the IMF of up to 7 days. The signature propagates vertically between air pressure p ≥ 850 hPa (≤ 1.5 km) and p = 500 hPa (˜5.6 km). The characteristics of prompt response and vertical propagation within the troposphere have previously been seen in the correlation between the IMF and high-latitude air pressure anomalies, known as the Mansurov effect, at higher statistical significances (1%). We conclude that we have identified the temperature signature of the Mansurov effect in the Antarctic troposphere. Since these tropospheric anomalies have been associated with By-driven anomalies in the electric potential of the ionosphere, we further conclude that they are caused by IMF-induced changes to the global atmospheric electric circuit (GEC). Our results support the view that variations in the ionospheric potential act on the troposphere via the action of resulting variations in the
Huang, Ping; Lin, I. -I; Chou, Chia; Huang, Rong-Hui
2015-01-01
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are hazardous natural disasters. Because TC intensification is significantly controlled by atmosphere and ocean environments, changes in these environments may cause changes in TC intensity. Changes in surface and subsurface ocean conditions can both influence a TC's intensification. Regarding global warming, minimal exploration of the subsurface ocean has been undertaken. Here we investigate future subsurface ocean environment changes projected by 22 state-of-the-art climate models and suggest a suppressive effect of subsurface oceans on the intensification of future TCs. Under global warming, the subsurface vertical temperature profile can be sharpened in important TC regions, which may contribute to a stronger ocean coupling (cooling) effect during the intensification of future TCs. Regarding a TC, future subsurface ocean environments may be more suppressive than the existing subsurface ocean environments. This suppressive effect is not spatially uniform and may be weak in certain local areas. PMID:25982028
Astitha, M.; Lelieveld, J.; Kader, M. Abdel; Pozzer, A.; de Meij, A.
2012-01-01
Airborne desert dust influences radiative transfer, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, as well as nutrient transport and deposition. It directly and indirectly affects climate on regional and global scales. Two versions of a parameterization scheme to compute desert dust emissions are incorporated into the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy2.41 Atmospheric Chemistry). One uses a global...
Bean, J. R.; White, L. D.
2015-12-01
Understanding modern and historical global changes requires interdisciplinary knowledge of the physical and life sciences. The Understanding Global Change website from the UC Museum of Paleontology will use a focal infographic that unifies diverse content often taught in separate K-12 science units. This visualization tool provides scientists with a structure for presenting research within the broad context of global change, and supports educators with a framework for teaching and assessing student understanding of complex global change processes. This new approach to teaching the science of global change is currently being piloted and refined based on feedback from educators and scientists in anticipation of a 2016 website launch. Global change concepts are categorized within the infographic as causes of global change (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, volcanism), ongoing Earth system processes (e.g., ocean circulation, the greenhouse effect), and the changes scientists measure in Earth's physical and biological systems (e.g., temperature, extinctions/radiations). The infographic will appear on all website content pages and provides a template for the creation of flowcharts, which are conceptual models that allow teachers and students to visualize the interdependencies and feedbacks among processes in the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and geosphere. The development of this resource is timely given that the newly adopted Next Generation Science Standards emphasize cross-cutting concepts, including model building, and Earth system science. Flowchart activities will be available on the website to scaffold inquiry-based lessons, determine student preconceptions, and assess student content knowledge. The infographic has already served as a learning and evaluation tool during professional development workshops at UC Berkeley, Stanford University, and the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History. At these workshops, scientists and educators used the infographic
Historical and future perspectives of global soil carbon response to climate and land-use changes
Eglin, T.; Ciais, P.; Piao, S. L.; Barre, P.; Bellassen, V.; Cadule, P.; Chenu, C.; Gasser, T.; Koven, C.; Reichstein, M.; Smith, P.
2010-11-01
ABSTRACT In this paper, we attempt to analyse the respective influences of land-use and climate changes on the global and regional balances of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. Two time periods are analysed: the historical period 1901-2000 and the period 2000-2100. The historical period is analysed using a synthesis of published data as well as new global and regional model simulations, and the future is analysed using models only. Historical land cover changes have resulted globally in SOC release into the atmosphere. This human induced SOC decrease was nearly balanced by the net SOC increase due to higher CO2 and rainfall. Mechanization of agriculture after the 1950s has accelerated SOC losses in croplands, whereas development of carbon-sequestering practices over the past decades may have limited SOC loss from arable soils. In some regions (Europe, China and USA), croplands are currently estimated to be either a small C sink or a small source, but not a large source of CO2 to the atmosphere. In the future, according to terrestrial biosphere and climate models projections, both climate and land cover changes might cause a net SOC loss, particularly in tropical regions. The timing, magnitude, and regional distribution of future SOC changes are all highly uncertain. Reducing this uncertainty requires improving future anthropogenic CO2 emissions and land-use scenarios and better understanding of biogeochemical processes that control SOC turnover, for both managed and un-managed ecosystems.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Duplessy, J.C.; Pons, A.; Fantechi, R.
1991-01-01
The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)
Response of atmospheric CO2 to changes in land use
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
King, A.W.; Emanuel, W.R.; Post, W.M.
1991-01-01
This chapter examines how different histories of CO 2 release from past changes in land use influence the simulation of past and future changes in atmospheric CO 2 . The authors first simulate past change in atmospheric CO 2 using reconstructed histories of land-use CO 2 release from a historical-ecological model of land-use change and CO 2 release. They examine the impact of each history on the coincidence between simulated and observed atmospheric CO 2 . They then compare these CO 2 release histories, and their contribution to coincidence or noncoincidence of simulation and observation, with histories reconstructed by deconvolution of the atmospheric CO 2 record. They conclude by exploring the implications of these deconvolved reconstructions for the simulation of future changes in atmospheric CO 2
Burkett, Virginia R.; Taylor, Ione L.; Belnap, Jayne; Cronin, Thomas M.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Frazier, Eldrich L.; Haines, John W.; Kirtland, David A.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Milly, Paul C.D.; O'Malley, Robin; Thompson, Robert S.
2011-01-01
This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global Change Science Strategy expands on the Climate Variability and Change science component of the USGS 2007 Science Strategy, “Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges: USGS Science in the Coming Decade” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). Here we embrace the broad definition of global change provided in the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 (Public Law 101–606,104 Stat. 3096–3104)—“Changes in the global environment (including alterations in climate, land productivity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life”—with a focus on climate and land-use change.There are three major characteristics of this science strategy. First, it addresses the science required to broadly inform global change policy, while emphasizing the needs of natural-resource managers and reflecting the role of the USGS as the science provider for the Department of the Interior and other resource-management agencies. Second, the strategy identifies core competencies, noting 10 critical capabilities and strengths the USGS uses to overcome key problem areas. We highlight those areas in which the USGS is a science leader, recognizing the strong partnerships and effective collaboration that are essential to address complex global environmental challenges. Third, it uses a query-based approach listing key research questions that need to be addressed to create an agenda for hypothesis-driven global change science organized under six strategic goals. Overall, the strategy starts from where we are, provides a vision for where we want to go, and then describes high-priority strategic actions, including outcomes, products, and partnerships that can get us there. Global change science is a well-defined research field with strong linkages to the ecosystems, water, energy and minerals, natural hazards, and environmental health components of the USGS Science Strategy
Paris Agreement on Climate Change: A Booster to Enable Sustainable Global Development and Beyond.
Bhore, Subhash Janardhan
2016-11-14
The global warming and its adverse effects on the atmosphere, the biosphere, the lithosphere, and the hydrosphere are obvious. Based on this fact, the international community is fully convinced that we need to fix the problem urgently for our survival, good health, and wellbeing. The aim of this article is to promote the awareness about the United Nations (UN) historic 'Paris Agreement on Climate Change (PACC)' which entered into-force on 4 November 2016. The expected impact of PACC on the global average temperature rise by 2100 as well as its role in enabling accomplishment of global sustainable development goals (SDGs) for the people and planet is also highlighted.
The EPA Global Change Research Program is pleased to inform you of the publication of the new Our Changing Planet: The FY 2002 U.S. Global Change Research Program. This annual report to the Congress was prepared under the auspices of the Committee on Environment and Natural Reso...
Turney, Chris S M; Palmer, Jonathan; Maslin, Mark A; Hogg, Alan; Fogwill, Christopher J; Southon, John; Fenwick, Pavla; Helle, Gerhard; Wilmshurst, Janet M; McGlone, Matt; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Thomas, Zoë; Lipson, Mathew; Beaven, Brent; Jones, Richard T; Andrews, Oliver; Hua, Quan
2018-02-19
Anthropogenic activity is now recognised as having profoundly and permanently altered the Earth system, suggesting we have entered a human-dominated geological epoch, the 'Anthropocene'. To formally define the onset of the Anthropocene, a synchronous global signature within geological-forming materials is required. Here we report a series of precisely-dated tree-ring records from Campbell Island (Southern Ocean) that capture peak atmospheric radiocarbon ( 14 C) resulting from Northern Hemisphere-dominated thermonuclear bomb tests during the 1950s and 1960s. The only alien tree on the island, a Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis), allows us to seasonally-resolve Southern Hemisphere atmospheric 14 C, demonstrating the 'bomb peak' in this remote and pristine location occurred in the last-quarter of 1965 (October-December), coincident with the broader changes associated with the post-World War II 'Great Acceleration' in industrial capacity and consumption. Our findings provide a precisely-resolved potential Global Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) or 'golden spike', marking the onset of the Anthropocene Epoch.
Fujii, Yoshiaki
2011-04-01
This study suggests that the cause of the stagnation in global warming in the mid 20th century was the atmospheric nuclear explosions detonated between 1945 and 1980. The estimated GST drop due to fine dust from the actual atmospheric nuclear explosions based on the published simulation results by other researchers (a single column model and Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model) has served to explain the stagnation in global warming. Atmospheric nuclear explosions can be regarded as full-scale in situ tests for nuclear winter. The non-negligible amount of GST drop from the actual atmospheric explosions suggests that nuclear winter is not just a theory but has actually occurred, albeit on a small scale. The accuracy of the simulations of GST by IPCC would also be improved significantly by introducing the influence of fine dust from the actual atmospheric nuclear explosions into their climate models; thus, global warming behavior could be more accurately predicted.
Peak globalization. Climate change, oil depletion and global trade
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Curtis, Fred [Department of Economics, Drew University, Madison, NJ 07940 (United States)
2009-12-15
The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed. (author)
Peak globalization. Climate change, oil depletion and global trade
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Curtis, Fred
2009-01-01
The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed. (author)
Air Pollution, Global Change and Forests in the New Millennium
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Karnosky, D.F.; Pikkarainen, J.; Percy, K.E.; Simpson, C.; Chappelka, A.H.
2003-01-01
The chapters in this book present a snapshot of the state of knowledge of air pollution effects at the beginning of the 21st century. From their different disciplines, a distinguished collection of authors document their understanding of how leaves, trees, and forests respond to air pollutants and climate change. Scenarios of global change and air pollution are described. The authors describe responses of forests to climate variability, tropospheric ozone, rising atmospheric CO2, the combination of CO2 and ozone, and deposition of acidic compounds and heavy metals. The responses to ozone receive particular attention because of increasing concern about its damaging effects and increasing concentrations in rural areas. Scaling issues are addressed - from leaves to trees, from juvenile trees to mature trees, from short-term responses to long-term responses, and from small-scale experiments and observations to large-scale forest ecosystems. This book is one major product of a conference sponsored by the International Union of Forestry Research Organizations, the USDA Forest Service Global Change Northern Stations Program, the Arthur Ross Foundation, NCASI, the Canadian Forest Service, and Michigan Technological University. The conference was held in May 2000 in Houghton, Michigan, USA
Natural gas fugitive emissions rates constrained by global atmospheric methane and ethane.
Schwietzke, Stefan; Griffin, W Michael; Matthews, H Scott; Bruhwiler, Lori M P
2014-07-15
The amount of methane emissions released by the natural gas (NG) industry is a critical and uncertain value for various industry and policy decisions, such as for determining the climate implications of using NG over coal. Previous studies have estimated fugitive emissions rates (FER)--the fraction of produced NG (mainly methane and ethane) escaped to the atmosphere--between 1 and 9%. Most of these studies rely on few and outdated measurements, and some may represent only temporal/regional NG industry snapshots. This study estimates NG industry representative FER using global atmospheric methane and ethane measurements over three decades, and literature ranges of (i) tracer gas atmospheric lifetimes, (ii) non-NG source estimates, and (iii) fossil fuel fugitive gas hydrocarbon compositions. The modeling suggests an upper bound global average FER of 5% during 2006-2011, and a most likely FER of 2-4% since 2000, trending downward. These results do not account for highly uncertain natural hydrocarbon seepage, which could lower the FER. Further emissions reductions by the NG industry may be needed to ensure climate benefits over coal during the next few decades.
Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change
Larsen, Stefano; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.; Marti Roca, Maria Eugenia
2016-01-01
Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream–terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream–riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream–terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic
Climate change - global warming
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ciconkov, Risto
2001-01-01
An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)
Shotyk, William
2013-04-01
A bog is much more than a waterlogged ecosystem where organic matter accumulates as peat. Peatlands such as bogs represent a critical link between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere. Plants growing at the surface of ombrotrophic bogs receive nutrients exclusively from the atmosphere. Despite the variations in redox status caused by seasonal fluctuations in depth to water table, the low pHof the waters, and abundance of dissolved organic matter, bogs preserve a remarkably reproducible history of atmospheric pollution, climate change, landscape evolution and human history. For example, peat cores from bogs in Europe and North America have provided detailed reconstructions of the changing rates and sources of Ag, Cd, Hg, Pb, Sb, and Tl, providing new insights into the geochemical cycles of these elements, including the massive perturbations induced by human activities beginning many thousands of years ago. Despite the low pH, and perhaps because of the abundance of dissolved organic matter, bogs preserve many silicate and aluminosilicate minerals which renders them valuable archives of atmospheric dust deposition and the climate changes which drive them. In the deeper, basal peat layers of the bog, in the minerotrophic zone where pore waters are affected bymineral-water interactions in the underlying and surrounding soils and sediments, peat serves as animportant link to the hydrosphere, efficiently removing from the imbibed groundwaters such trace elements as As, Cu, Mo, Ni, Se, V, and U. These removal processes, while incompletely understood, are so effective that measuring the dissolved fraction of trace elements in the pore waters becomes a considerable challenge even for the most sophisticated analytical laboratories. While the trace elements listed above are removed from groundwaters (along with P and S), elements such as Fe and Mn are added to the waters because of reductive dissolution, an important first step in the formation of lacustrine Fe and Mn
Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on global scale
Pacyna, Jozef M.; Travnikov, Oleg; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pirrone, Nicola; Munthe, John; Kindbom, Karin
2016-01-01
An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of mercury world-wide are presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the
Fuzzi, S.; Andreae, M. O.; Huebert, B. J.; Kulmala, M.; Bond, T. C.; Boy, M.; Doherty, S. J.; Guenther, A.; Kanakidou, M.; Kawamura, K.; Kerminen, V.-M.; Lohmann, U.; Russell, L. M.; Pöschl, U.
2006-01-01
International audience; In spite of impressive advances in recent years, our present understanding of organic aerosol (OA) composition, physical and chemical properties, sources and transformation characteristics is still rather limited, and their environmental effects remain highly uncertain. Therefore, the three atmosphere-related projects of the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) ? IGAC (International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Project), iLEAPS (Integrated Land Ecosystem ...
Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions Modulate Irrigation's Climate Impacts
Krakauer, Nir Y.; Puma, Michael J.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Gentine, Pierre; Nazarenko, Larissa
2016-01-01
Numerous studies have focused on the local and regional climate effects of irrigated agriculture and other land cover and land use change (LCLUC) phenomena, but there are few studies on the role of ocean- atmosphere interaction in modulating irrigation climate impacts. Here, we compare simulations with and without interactive sea surface temperatures of the equilibrium effect on climate of contemporary (year 2000) irrigation geographic extent and intensity. We find that ocean-atmosphere interaction does impact the magnitude of global-mean and spatially varying climate impacts, greatly increasing their global reach. Local climate effects in the irrigated regions remain broadly similar, while non-local effects, particularly over the oceans, tend to be larger. The interaction amplifies irrigation-driven standing wave patterns in the tropics and mid-latitudes in our simulations, approximately doubling the global-mean amplitude of surface temperature changes due to irrigation. The fractions of global area experiencing significant annual-mean surface air temperature and precipitation change also approximately double with ocean-atmosphere interaction. Subject to confirmation with other models, these findings imply that LCLUC is an important contributor to climate change even in remote areas such as the Southern Ocean, and that attribution studies should include interactive oceans and need to consider LCLUC, including irrigation, as a truly global forcing that affects climate and the water cycle over ocean as well as land areas.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Abreu, P.; /Lisbon, IST; Aglietta, M.; /Turin U. /INFN, Turin; Ahlers, M.; /Wisconsin U., Madison; Ahn, E.J.; /Fermilab; Albuquerque, I.F.M.; /Sao Paulo U.; Allard, D.; /APC, Paris; Allekotte, I.; /Buenos Aires, CONICET; Allen, J.; /New York U.; Allison, P.; /Ohio State U.; Almela, A.; /Natl. Tech. U., San Nicolas /Buenos Aires, CONICET; Alvarez Castillo, J.; /Mexico U., ICN /Santiago de Compostela U.
2012-01-01
Atmospheric conditions at the site of a cosmic ray observatory must be known for reconstructing observed extensive air showers. The Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) is a global atmospheric model predicated on meteorological measurements and numerical weather predictions. GDAS provides altitude-dependent profiles of the main state variables of the atmosphere like temperature, pressure, and humidity. The original data and their application to the air shower reconstruction of the Pierre Auger Observatory are described. By comparisons with radiosonde and weather station measurements obtained on-site in Malargue and averaged monthly models, the utility of the GDAS data is shown.
Kirchengast, G.; Schwaerz, M.; Fritzer, J.; Schwarz, J.; Scherllin-Pirscher, B.; Steiner, A. K.
2013-12-01
Monitoring the atmosphere to gain accurate and long-term stable records of essential climate variables (ECVs) such as temperature and greenhouse gases is the backbone of contemporary atmospheric and climate science. Earth observation from space is the key to obtain such data globally in the atmosphere. Currently, however, not any existing satellite-based atmospheric ECV record can serve as authoritative benchmark over months to decades so that climate variability and change in the atmosphere are not yet reliably monitored. Radio occultation (RO) using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals provides a unique opportunity to solve this problem in the free atmosphere (from ~1-2 km altitude upwards) for core ECVs: the thermodynamic variables temperature and pressure, and to some degree water vapor, which are key parameters for tracking climate change. On top of RO we have recently conceived next-generation methods, microwave and infrared-laser occultation and nadir-looking infrared-laser reflectometry. These can monitor a full set of thermo-dynamic ECVs (incl. wind) as well as the greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane as main drivers of climate change; for the latter we also target the boundary layer for tracking carbon sources and sinks. We briefly introduce to why the atmospheric climate monitoring challenge is unsolved so far and why just the above methods have the capabilities to break through. We then focus on RO, which already provided more than a decade of observations. RO accurately measures time delays from refraction of GNSS signals during atmospheric occultation events. This enables to tie RO-derived ECVs and their uncertainty to fundamental time standards, effectively the SI second, and to their unique long-term stability and narrow uncertainty. However, despite impressive advances since the pioneering RO mission GPS/Met in the mid-1990ties no rigorous trace from fundamental time to the ECVs (duly accounting also for relevant side
Lifestyles and Global Land-use Change
Heilig, G.K.
1995-01-01
One of the most influential publications on land-use change is a small booklet, published by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme (HDP). It was written -- as its subtitle says -- as a "proposal for an IGBP-HDP Core Project" on "Relating Land Use and Global Land-Cover Change". The booklet can be seen as some kind of programmatic statement to guide international collaborative research on global land-use change. ...
The effect of millennial-scale changes in Arabian Sea denitrification on atmospheric CO{sub 2}
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Altabet, M.A.; Higginson, M.J. [University of Massachusetts, New Bedford, MA (United States). School for Marine Science and Technology; Murray, D.W. [Brown University, Providence, RI (United States). Center for Environmental Studies
2002-07-01
Most global biogeochemical processes are known to respond to climate change, some of which have the capacity to produce feedbacks through the regulation of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Marine denitrification - the reduction of nitrate to gaseous nitrogen - is an important process in this regard, affecting greenhouse gas concentrations directly through the incidental production of nitrous oxide, and indirectly through modification of the marine nitrogen inventory and hence the biological pump for C0{sub 2}. Although denitrification has been shown to vary with glacial-interglacial cycles, its response to more rapid climate change has not yet been well characterized. Here we present nitrogen isotope ratio, nitrogen content and chlorin abundance data from sediment cores with high accumulation rates on the Oman continental margin that reveal substantial millennial-scale variability in Arabian Sea denitrification and productivity during the last glacial period. The detailed correspondence of these changes with Dansgaard-Oeschger events recorded in Greenland ice cores indicates rapid, century-scale reorganization of the Arabian Sea ecosystem in response to climate excursions, mediated through the intensity of summer monsoonal upwelling. Considering the several-thousand-year residence time of fixed nitrogen in the ocean, the response of global marine productivity to changes in denitrification would have occurred at lower frequency and appears to be related to climatic and atmospheric C0{sub 2} oscillations observed in Antarctic ice cores between 20 and A kyr ago. (author)
Ojima, D. S.; Chuluun, T.; Temirbekov, S. S.; Mahowald, N.; Hicke, J.
2004-12-01
Dramatic changes occurred in pastoral systems of Eurasia ranging from Mongolia, China and Central Asia for the past decades. Recently, evaluation of the pastoral systems has been conducted in the region. Pastoral systems, where humans depend on livestock, exist largely in arid or semi-arid ecosystems where climate is highly variable. Interaction between ecosystems and nomadic land use systems co-shaped them in mutual adaptive ways for hundreds of years, thus making both the Mongolian rangeland ecosystem and nomadic pastoral system resilient and sustainable. Current changes in environmental conditions are affecting land-atmosphere interactions. Regional dust events, changes in hydrological cycle, and land use changes contribute to changing interactions between ecosystem and landscape processes which affect regional climate. The general trend involves greater intensification of resource exploitation at the expense of traditional patterns of extensive range utilization. This set of drivers is orthogonal to the above described climate drivers. Thus we expect climate-land use-land cover relationships to be crucially modified by the socio-economic forces.
AATSR: global-change and surface-temperature measurements from Envisat
Llewellyn-Jones, D.; Edwards, M. C.; Mutlow, C. T.; Birks, A. R.; Barton, I. J.; Tait, H.
2001-02-01
The Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) onboard ESA's Envisat spacecraft is designed to meet the challenging task of monitoring and detecting climate change. It builds on the success of its predecessor instruments on the ERS-1 and ERS-2 satellites, and will lead to a 15+ year record of precise and accurate global Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) measurements, thereby making a valuable contribution to the long-term climate record. With its high-accuracy, high-quality imagery and channels in the visible, near-infrared and thermal wavelengths, AATSR data will support many applications in addition to oceanographic and climate research, including a wide range of land-surface, cryosphere and atmospheric studies.
Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change
2009-01-01
To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...
Global simulation of aromatic volatile organic compounds in the atmosphere
Cabrera Perez, David; Taraborrelli, Domenico; Pozzer, Andrea
2015-04-01
Among the large number of chemical compounds in the atmosphere, the organic group plays a key role in the tropospheric chemistry. Specifically the subgroup called aromatics is of great interest. Aromatics are the predominant trace gases in urban areas due to high emissions, primarily by vehicle exhausts and fuel evaporation. They are also present in areas where biofuel is used (i.e residential wood burning). Emissions of aromatic compounds are a substantial fraction of the total emissions of the volatile organic compounds (VOC). Impact of aromatics on human health is very important, as they do not only contribute to the ozone formation in the urban environment, but they are also highly toxic themselves, especially in the case of benzene which is able to trigger a range of illness under long exposure, and of nitro-phenols which cause detrimental for humans and vegetation even at very low concentrations. The aim of this work is to assess the atmospheric impacts of aromatic compounds on the global scale. The main goals are: lifetime and budget estimation, mixing ratios distribution, net effect on ozone production and OH loss for the most emitted aromatic compounds (benzene, toluene, xylenes, ethylbenzene, styrene and trimethylbenzenes). For this purpose, we use the numerical chemistry and climate simulation ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model to build the global atmospheric budget for the most emitted and predominant aromatic compounds in the atmosphere. A set of emissions was prepared in order to include biomass burning, vegetation and anthropogenic sources of aromatics into the model. A chemical mechanism based on the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM) was developed to describe the chemical oxidation in the gas phase of these aromatic compounds. MCM have been reduced in terms of number of chemical equation and species in order to make it affordable in a 3D model. Additionally other features have been added, for instance the production of HONO via ortho
Asia's changing role in global climate change.
Siddiqi, Toufiq A
2008-10-01
Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.
Ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bang Selsted, M
2010-07-15
Global change is a reality. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels are rising as well as mean global temperature and precipitation patterns are changing. These three environmental factors have separately and in combination effect on ecosystem processes. Terrestrial ecosystems hold large amounts of carbon, why understanding plant and soil responses to such changes are necessary, as ecosystems potentially can ameliorate or accelerate global change. To predict the feedback of ecosystems to the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations experiments imitating global change effects are therefore an important tool. This work on ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions, shows that extended summer drought in combination with elevated temperature will ensure permanent dryer soil conditions, which decreases carbon turnover, while elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations will increase carbon turnover. In the full future climate scenario, carbon turnover is over all expected to increase and the heathland to become a source of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. The methodology of static chamber CO{sub 2} flux measurements and applying the technology in a FACE (free air CO{sub 2} enrichment) facility is a challenge. Fluxes of CO{sub 2} from soil to atmosphere depend on a physical equilibrium between those two medias, why it is important to keep the CO{sub 2} gradient between soil and atmosphere unchanged during measurement. Uptake to plants via photosynthesis depends on a physiological process, which depends strongly on the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration. Photosynthesis and respiration run in parallel during measurements of net ecosystem exchange, and these measurements should therefore be performed with care to both the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration and the CO{sub 2} soil-atmosphere gradient. (author)
Global atmospheric concentrations and source strength of ethane
Blake, D. R.; Rowland, F. S.
1986-01-01
A study of the variation in ethane (C2H6) concentration between northern and southern latitudes over three years is presented together with a new estimate of its source strength. Ethane concentrations vary from 0.07 to 2 p.p.b.v. (parts per billion by volume) in air samples collected in remote surface locations in the Pacific (latitude 71 N-47 S) in all four seasons between September 1984 and June 1985. The variations are consistent with southerly transport from sources located chiefly in the Northern Hemisphere, further modified by seasonal variations in the strength of the reaction of C2H6 with OH radicals. These global data can be combined with concurrent data for CH4 and the laboratory reaction rates of each with OH to provide an estimate of three months as the average atmospheric lifetime for C2H6 and 13 + or - 3 Mtons for its annual atmospheric release.
[Effects of global change on soil fauna diversity: A review].
Wu, Ting-Juan
2013-02-01
Terrestrial ecosystem consists of aboveground and belowground components, whose interaction affects the ecosystem processes and functions. Soil fauna plays an important role in biogeochemical cycles. With the recognizing of the significance of soil fauna in ecosystem processes, increasing evidences demonstrated that global change has profound effects on soil faunima diversity. The alternation of land use type, the increasing temperature, and the changes in precipitation pattern can directly affect soil fauna diversity, while the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition can indirectly affect the soil fauna diversity by altering plant community composition, diversity, and nutrient contents. The interactions of different environmental factors can co-affect the soil fauna diversity. To understand the effects of different driving factors on soil fauna diversity under the background of climate change would facilitate us better predicting how the soil fauna diversity and related ecological processes changed in the future.
Paris Agreement on Climate Change: A Booster to Enable Sustainable Global Development and Beyond
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Subhash Janardhan Bhore
2016-11-01
Full Text Available The global warming and its adverse effects on the atmosphere, the biosphere, the lithosphere, and the hydrosphere are obvious. Based on this fact, the international community is fully convinced that we need to fix the problem urgently for our survival, good health, and wellbeing. The aim of this article is to promote the awareness about the United Nations (UN historic ‘Paris Agreement on Climate Change (PACC’ which entered into-force on 4 November 2016. The expected impact of PACC on the global average temperature rise by 2100 as well as its role in enabling accomplishment of global sustainable development goals (SDGs for the people and planet is also highlighted.
Enhanced priming of old, not new soil carbon at elevated atmospheric CO2
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vestergard, Mette; Reinsch, Sabine; Bengtson, Per
2016-01-01
Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations accompanied by global warming and altered precipitation patterns calls for assessment of long-term effects of these global changes on carbon (C) dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems, as changes in net C exchange between soil and atmosphere will impact the atmos......Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations accompanied by global warming and altered precipitation patterns calls for assessment of long-term effects of these global changes on carbon (C) dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems, as changes in net C exchange between soil and atmosphere will impact...... accelerate the decomposition of soil organic C (SOC), a phenomenon termed ‘the priming effect’, and the priming effect is most pronounced at low soil N availability. Hence, we hypothesized that priming of SOC decomposition in response to labile C addition would increase in soil exposed to long-term elevated...... decomposition of relatively old SOC fractions, i.e. SOC assimilated more than 8 years before sampling....
Responses of northern forest plants to atmospheric changes
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Laine, K; Huttunen, S; Kauppi, M; Ohtonen, R; Laehdesmaeki, P [Oulu Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Biology
1997-12-31
This research programme has been under way since 1990 to study the long-term synergistic effects of air pollutants and changing climatic conditions on the northern forest ecosystem and to increase the knowledge of climatic change and its consequences for the fragile northern nature. Ecological, physiological, morphological and biochemical methods have been used to study the responses of forest trees, dwarf shrubs, lichens and soil biology to environmental changes. The research programme is divided into four subprojects concentrating on different ecosystem levels. The subprojects are: (1) life, growth and survival strategies of northern dwarf shrubs under the pressure of a changing environment, (2) forest trees under the impact of air pollutants, increasing CO{sub 2} and UV-B, (3) susceptibility of lichens to air pollution and climatic change and (4) impact of elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2} and O{sub 3} on soil biology with special reference to carbon allocation and N fixation in symbiotic systems. This report summarizes the results of short-term experiments which showed many ecological and physiological changes in almost all elements of the northern boreal forests. These species-level measurements focused on the key species of the northern boreal forest, which have been thought to be useful in large-scale ecosystem experiments and modelling. The results will also facilitate the further studies on the patterns of plant species distribution and northern ecosystem function with respect to the environmental parameters that are expected to change along with global change (e.g. temperature, airchemistry, UV-B, snow condition)
Responses of northern forest plants to atmospheric changes
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Laine, K.; Huttunen, S.; Kauppi, M.; Ohtonen, R.; Laehdesmaeki, P. [Oulu Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Biology
1996-12-31
This research programme has been under way since 1990 to study the long-term synergistic effects of air pollutants and changing climatic conditions on the northern forest ecosystem and to increase the knowledge of climatic change and its consequences for the fragile northern nature. Ecological, physiological, morphological and biochemical methods have been used to study the responses of forest trees, dwarf shrubs, lichens and soil biology to environmental changes. The research programme is divided into four subprojects concentrating on different ecosystem levels. The subprojects are: (1) life, growth and survival strategies of northern dwarf shrubs under the pressure of a changing environment, (2) forest trees under the impact of air pollutants, increasing CO{sub 2} and UV-B, (3) susceptibility of lichens to air pollution and climatic change and (4) impact of elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2} and O{sub 3} on soil biology with special reference to carbon allocation and N fixation in symbiotic systems. This report summarizes the results of short-term experiments which showed many ecological and physiological changes in almost all elements of the northern boreal forests. These species-level measurements focused on the key species of the northern boreal forest, which have been thought to be useful in large-scale ecosystem experiments and modelling. The results will also facilitate the further studies on the patterns of plant species distribution and northern ecosystem function with respect to the environmental parameters that are expected to change along with global change (e.g. temperature, airchemistry, UV-B, snow condition)
He, B.
2015-12-01
Global warming is one of the most significant climate change signals at the earth's surface. However, the responses of monsoon precipitation to global warming show very distinct regional features, especially over the South China Sea (SCS) and surrounding regions during boreal summer. To understand the possible dynamics in these specific regions under the global warming background, the changes in atmospheric latent heating and their possible influences on global climate are investigated by both observational diagnosis and numerical sensitivity simulations. Results indicate that summertime latent heating has intensified in the SCS and western Pacific, accompanied by increased precipitation, cloud cover, lower-tropospheric convergence, and decreased sea level pressure. Sensitivity experiments show that middle and upper tropospheric heating causes an east-west feedback pattern between SCS-western Pacific and South Asia, which strengthens the South Asian High in the upper troposphere and moist convergence in the lower troposphere, consequently forcing a descending motion and adiabatic warming over continental South Asia and leading to a warm and dry climate. When air-sea interaction is considered, the simulation results are overall more similar to observations, and in particular the bias of precipitation over the Indian Ocean simulated by AGCMs has been reduced. The results highlight the important role of latent heating in adjusting the changes in sea surface temperature through atmospheric dynamics.
Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI)
Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) is dedicated to understanding the problems of global climate change and their potential solutions. The Institute...
Unusual neurological syndrome induced by atmospheric pressure change.
Ptak, Judy A; Yazinski, Nancy A; Block, Clay A; Buckey, Jay C
2013-05-01
We describe a case of a 46-yr-old female who developed hypertension, tachycardia, dysarthria, and leg weakness provoked by pressure changes associated with flying. Typically during the landing phase of flight, she would feel dizzy and note that she had difficulty with speech and leg weakness. After the flight the leg weakness persisted for several days. The symptoms were mitigated when she took a combined alpha-beta blocker (labetalol) prior to the flight. To determine if these symptoms were related to atmospheric pressure change, she was referred for testing in a hyperbaric chamber. She was exposed to elevated atmospheric pressure (maximum 1.2 ATA) while her heart rate and blood pressure were monitored. Within 1 min she developed tachycardia and hypertension. She also quickly developed slurred speech, left arm and leg weakness, and sensory changes in her left leg. She was returned to sea level pressure and her symptoms gradually improved. A full neurological workup has revealed no explanation for these findings. She has no air collections, cysts, or other anatomic findings that could be sensitive to atmospheric pressure change. The pattern is most consistent with a vascular event stimulated by altitude exposure. This case suggests that atmospheric pressure change can produce neurological symptoms, although the mechanism is unknown.
Global change research: Science and policy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rayner, S.
1993-05-01
This report characterizes certain aspects of the Global Change Research Program of the US Government, and its relevance to the short and medium term needs of policy makers in the public and private sectors. It addresses some of the difficulties inherent in the science and policy interface on the issues of global change. Finally, this report offers some proposals for improving the science for policy process in the context of global environmental change
Atmospheric Chemistry Over Southern Africa
Gatebe, Charles K.; Levy, Robert C.; Thompson, Anne M.
2011-01-01
During the southern African dry season, regional haze from mixed industrial pollution, biomass burning aerosol and gases from domestic and grassland fires, and biogenic sources from plants and soils is worsened by a semi-permanent atmosphere gyre over the subcontinent. These factors were a driver of several major international field campaigns in the 1990s and early 2000s, and attracted many scientists to the region. Some researchers were interested in understanding fundamental processes governing chemistry of the atmosphere and interaction with climate change. Others found favorable conditions for evaluating satellite-derived measurements of atmospheric properties and a changing land surface. With that background in mind a workshop on atmospheric chemistry was held in South Africa. Sponsored by the International Commission for Atmospheric Chemistry and Global Pollution (ICACGP; http://www.icacgp.org/), the workshop received generous support from the South African power utility, Eskom, and the Climatology Research Group of the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa. The purpose of the workshop was to review some earlier findings as well as more recent findings on southern African climate vulnerability, chemical changes due to urbanization, land-use modification, and how these factors interact. Originally proposed by John Burrows, president of ICACGP, the workshop was the first ICACGP regional workshop to study the interaction of air pollution with global chemical and climate change. Organized locally by the University of the Witwatersrand, the workshop attracted more than 60 delegates from South Africa, Mozambique, Botswana, Zimbabwe, France, Germany, Canada, and the United States. More than 30 presentations were given, exploring both retrospective and prospective aspects of the science. In several talks, attention was focused on southern African chemistry, atmospheric pollution monitoring, and climate processes as they were studied in the field
Changes in Intense Precipitation Events in West Africa and the central U.S. under Global Warming
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cook, Kerry H. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States); Vizy, Edward [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)
2016-02-08
The purpose of the proposed project is to improve our understanding of the physical processes and large-scale connectivity of changes in intense precipitation events (high rainfall rates) under global warming in West Africa and the central U.S., including relationships with low-frequency modes of variability. This is in response to the requested subject area #2 “simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate … to better quantify the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme events under climate change and elucidate the role of low frequency climate variability in modulating extremes.” We will use a regional climate model and emphasize an understanding of the physical processes that lead to an intensification of rainfall. The project objectives are as follows: 1. Understand the processes responsible for simulated changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency over West Africa and the Central U.S. associated with greenhouse gas-induced global warming 2. Understand the relationship between changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency, which generally occur on regional space scales, and the larger-scale global warming signal by considering modifications of low-frequency modes of variability. 3. Relate changes simulated on regional space scales to global-scale theories of how and why atmospheric moisture levels and rainfall should change as climate warms.
Impact and prevention on global warming
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Park, Heon Ryeol
2003-11-01
This book deals with impact and prevention on global warming with eight chapters, which introduce the change after the earth was born and natural environment, how is global atmospheric environment under the control of radiant energy? What does global warming look with the earth history like? What's the status of global warming so far? How does climate change happen? What is the impact by global warming and climate change and for preservation of global environment of 21 century with consumption of energy, measure and prospect on global warming. It has reference, index and three appendixes.
The Effect of Land Use (Deforestation) on Global Changing and its consequences in Turkey
Onursal Denli, G.; Denli, H. H.
2015-12-01
Land use has generally been considered as a local environmental issue, but it is becoming a force of global importance. Global changes to forests, farmlands, waterways, and air are being driven by the need to provide food, water and shelter to more than six billion people. Global croplands, pastures, plantations and urban areas have expanded in recent decades, accompanied by large increases in energy, water and fertilizer consumption, along with considerable losses of biodiversity. Especially the forests influence climate through physical, chemical and biological processes that affect planetary energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. Such changes in land use have enabled humans to appropriate an increasing share of the planet's resources, but they also potentially undermine the capacity of ecosystems to sustain food production, maintain freshwater and forest resources, regulate climate and air quality. Global Warming and Climate Change are the two main fundamental problems facing Turkey as well as the World. The expedition and size of this change is becoming noticeably conspicuous now. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), the global temperature has been increased of about 0.74 degree Celsius since the Industrial Revolution. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change. The general scientific opinions on the climate change states that in the past 50 years, global warming has effected the human life resulting with very obvious influences. High rates of deforestation within a country are most commonly linked to population growth and poverty. In Turkey, the forests are destroyed for various reasons resulting to a change in the climate. This study examines the causes of
Regional-Scale Forcing and Feedbacks from Alternative Scenarios of Global-Scale Land Use Change
Jones, A. D.; Chini, L. P.; Collins, W.; Janetos, A. C.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Thomson, A. M.; Torn, M. S.
2011-12-01
Future patterns of land use change depend critically on the degree to which terrestrial carbon management strategies, such as biological carbon sequestration and biofuels, are utilized in order to mitigate global climate change. Furthermore, land use change associated with terrestrial carbon management induces biogeophysical changes to surface energy budgets that perturb climate at regional and possibly global scales, activating different feedback processes depending on the nature and location of the land use change. As a first step in a broader effort to create an integrated earth system model, we examine two scenarios of future anthropogenic activity generated by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) within the full-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Each scenario stabilizes radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols at 4.5 W/m^2. In the first, stabilization is achieved through a universal carbon tax that values terrestrial carbon equally with fossil carbon, leading to modest afforestation globally and low biofuel utilization. In the second scenario, stabilization is achieved with a tax on fossil fuel and industrial carbon alone. In this case, biofuel utilization increases dramatically and crop area expands to claim approximately 50% of forest cover globally. By design, these scenarios exhibit identical climate forcing from atmospheric constituents. Thus, differences among them can be attributed to the biogeophysical effects of land use change. In addition, we utilize offline radiative transfer and offline land model simulations to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms operating in different regions. We find that boreal deforestation has a strong climatic signature due to significant albedo change coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Tropical deforestation, on the other hand, has more subtle effects on climate. Globally, the two scenarios yield warming trends over the 21st century that differ by 0.5 degrees Celsius. This
Pleistocene atmospheric CO2 change linked to Southern Ocean nutrient utilization
Ziegler, M.; Diz, P.; Hall, I. R.; Zahn, R.
2011-12-01
Biological uptake of CO2 by the ocean and its subsequent storage in the abyss is intimately linked with the global carbon cycle and constitutes a significant climatic force1. The Southern Ocean is a particularly important region because its wind-driven upwelling regime brings CO2 laden abyssal waters to the surface that exchange CO2 with the atmosphere. The Subantarctic Zone (SAZ) is a CO2 sink and also drives global primary productivity as unutilized nutrients, advected with surface waters from the south, are exported via Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) as preformed nutrients to the low latitudes where they fuel the biological pump in upwelling areas. Recent model estimates suggest that up to 40 ppm of the total 100 ppm atmospheric pCO2 reduction during the last ice age were driven by increased nutrient utilization in the SAZ and associated feedbacks on the deep ocean alkalinity. Micro-nutrient fertilization by iron (Fe), contained in the airborne dust flux to the SAZ, is considered to be the prime factor that stimulated this elevated photosynthetic activity thus enhancing nutrient utilization. We present a millennial-scale record of the vertical stable carbon isotope gradient between subsurface and deep water (Δδ13C) in the SAZ spanning the past 350,000 years. The Δδ13C gradient, derived from planktonic and benthic foraminifera, reflects the efficiency of biological pump and is highly correlated (rxy = -0.67 with 95% confidence interval [0.63; 0.71], n=874) with the record of dust flux preserved in Antarctic ice cores6. This strongly suggests that nutrient utilization in the SAZ was dynamically coupled to dust-induced Fe fertilization across both glacial-interglacial and faster millennial timescales. In concert with ventilation changes of the deep Southern Ocean this drove ocean-atmosphere CO2 exchange and, ultimately, atmospheric pCO2 variability during the late Pleistocene.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Manowitz, B.
1990-10-01
The important physical, chemical, and biological events that affect global climate change occur on a mesoscale -- requiring high spatial resolution for their analysis. The Department of Energy has formulated two major initiatives under the US Global Change Program: ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurements), and CHAMMP (Computer Hardware Advanced Mathematics and Model Physics). ARM is designed to use ground and air-craft based observations to document profiles of atmospheric composition, clouds, and radiative fluxes. With research and models of important physical processes, ARM will delineate the relationships between trace gases, aerosol and cloud structure, and radiative transfer in the atmosphere, and will improve the parameterization of global circulation models. The present GCMs do not model important feedbacks, including those from clouds, oceans, and land processes. The purpose of this workshop is to identify such potential feedbacks, to evaluate the uncertainties in the feedback processes (and, if possible, to parameterize the feedback processes so that they can be treated in a GCM), and to recommend research programs that will reduce the uncertainties in important feedback processes. Individual reports are processed separately for the data bases.
Land-use change and global climate policies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gitz, V.
2004-03-01
This PhD thesis assess the role of land-use dynamics and carbon sequestration within climate policies. First, it describes the emergence, from the Rio-1992 to the Marrakech Accords (2001), of diplomatic controversies upon carbon sinks, in the context of the progressive constitution of a scientific basis on terrestrial carbon sinks. It questions the ability of the actual form of international climate regime to generate the appropriate incentives to sequester within the forestry sector in developed countries, or to control tropical deforestation. Second, the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO 2 rise is quantified using a newly designed model of the global carbon cycle and regional land-use (OSCAR). We show that carbon emitted via land-use is not equivalent to fossil carbon emission in respect to atmospheric CO 2 rise. This effect, all the more than land-use emissions are increasing, requires a greater mitigation effort to stabilize atmospheric CO 2 . Finally, optimal timing of mixed climate policies involving fossil emissions mitigation and biological sequestration is assessed within an inter temporal cost-benefit framework. We show that the social value of sequestered carbon depends on anticipating future climate damages. Within optimal control models, this links the timing of sequestration to fossil effort and to the evolution of climate damages; if the latter are uncertain, but might be revealed at a later date, then it might be optimal to reserve part of the limited sequestration potential to cut off an eventual future abatement cost peak, were a climate surprise to finally imply stringent concentration ceilings. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Oechel, W.C.
1992-04-01
Northern ecosystems contain up to 455 Gt of C in the soil active layer and upper permafrost. The soil carbon in these layers is equivalent to approximately 60% of the carbon currently in the atmosphere as CO{sub 2}. Much of this carbon is stored in the soil as dead organic matter. Its fate is subject to the net effects of global change on the plant and soil systems of northern ecosystems. The arctic alone contains about 60 Gt C, 90% of which is present in the soil active layer and upper permafrost. The arctic is assumed to have been a sink for CO{sub 2} during the historic and recent geologic past. The arctic has the potential to be a very large, long-term source or sink of CO{sub 2} with respect to the atmosphere. In situ experimental manipulations of atmospheric CO{sub 2}, indicated that there is little effect of elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2} on leaf level photosynthesis or whole-ecosystem CO{sub 2} flux over the course of weeks to years, respectively. However, there may be longer- term ecosystem responses to elevated CO{sub 2} that could ultimately affect ecosystem CO{sub 2} balance. In addition to atmospheric CO{sub 2}, climate may affect net ecosystem carbon balance. Recent results indicate that the arctic has become a source of CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere. This change coincides with recent climatic variation in the arctic, and suggests a positive feedback of arctic ecosystems on atmospheric CO{sub 2} and global change. The research proposed in this application has four principal aspects: (A) Long-term response of arctic plants and ecosystems to elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2}; (B) Circumpolar patterns of net ecosystem CO{sub 2} flux; (C) In situ controls by temperature and moisture on net ecosystem CO{sub 2} flux; (D) Scaling of CO{sub 2} flux from plot, to landscape, to regional scales (In conjunction with research proposed for NSF support).
Nozawa, T.; Fujiwara, S.
2017-12-01
According to the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5), snow cover extent (SCE) over the northern hemisphere is greatly decreasing in spring. This change is expected to affect atmospheric circulation change via land-atmosphere interactions. In this study, we investigated relationships between spring SCE anomaly over the Eurasia and changes in atmospheric circulations, mainly analyzing the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55). Differences in composites of zonal winds at upper and middle levels between large and small SCE years over Western Siberia in spring show that, around Japan and East Asia, jet stream in small SCE years is shifted southward in April and June. We also analyzed surface temperature and soil moisture and find that, in small SCE years, surface temperature in Western Siberia and Central Asia is increased and soil moisture reduced significantly in June. The air temperature in the middle and low level atmosphere also significantly increased and have wave-like pattern in May. These results suggest that there are some linkages between the springtime Eurasian SCE reduction and changes in summertime jet stream over Japan and East Asia through land-atmosphere interactions.
Yoon, J.; Burrows, J. P.; Vountas, M.; von Hoyningen-Huene, W.; Chang, D. Y.; Richter, A.; Hilboll, A.
2013-10-01
Atmospheric aerosol, generated from natural and anthropogenic sources, plays a key role in regulating visibility, air quality, and acid deposition. It is directly linked to and impacts on human health. It also reflects and absorbs incoming solar radiation and thereby influences the climate change. The cooling by aerosols is now recognized to have partly masked the atmospheric warming from fossil fuel combustion emissions. The role and potential management of short-lived climate pollutants such as aerosol are currently a topic of much scientific and public debate. Our limited knowledge of atmospheric aerosol and its influence on the Earth's radiation balance has a significant impact on the accuracy and error of current predictions of the future global climate change. In the past decades, environmental legislation in industrialized countries has begun to limit the release of anthropogenic pollutants. In contrast, in Asia as a result of the recent rapid economic development, emissions from industry and traffic have increased dramatically. In this study, the temporal changes/trends of atmospheric aerosols, derived from the satellite instruments MODIS (on board Terra and Aqua), MISR (Terra), and SeaWiFS (OrbView-2) during the past decade, are investigated. Whilst the aerosol optical thickness, AOT, over Western Europe decreases (i.e. by up to about -40% from 2003 to 2008) and parts of North America, a statistically significant increase (about +34% in the same period) over East China is observed and attributed to both the increase in industrial output and the Asian desert dust.
Atmospheric phenomena deduced from radiosonde and GPS ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
The tropopause height and tropopause temperature are sensitive to temperature changes in troposphere and stratosphere. These are the measures of global climatic variability. Atmospheric profiles of temperature, refractivity and water vapour are always needed for communication, navigation and atmospheric modeling ...
Ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Selsted, Merete Bang
understanding plant and soil responses to such changes are necessary, as ecosystems potentially can ameliorate or accelerate global change. To predict the feedback of ecosystems to the atmospheric CO2 concentrations experiments imitating global change effects are therefore an important tool. This work....... Fluxes of CO2 from soil to atmosphere depend on a physical equilibrium between those two medias, why it is important to keep the CO2 gradient between soil and atmosphere unchanged during measurement. Uptake to plants via photosynthesis depends on a physiological process, which depends strongly...... on the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Photosynthesis and respiration run in parallel during measurements of net ecosystem exchange, and these measurements should therefore be performed with care to both the atmospheric CO2 concentration and the CO2 soil-atmosphere gradient....
Global warming and climate change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1992-10-01
A panel discussion was held to discuss climate change. Six panelists made presentations that summarized ozone depletion and climate change, discussed global responses, argued against the conventional scientific and policy dogmas concerning climate change, examined the effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton, examined the effects of carbon taxes on Canadian industry and its emissions, and examined the political and strategic aspects of global warming. A question session followed the presentations. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the six presentations
Global change data sets: Excerpts from the Master Directory, version 2.0
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Beier, J.
1992-02-01
The recent awakening to the reality of human-induced changes to the environment has resulted in an organized effort to promote global change research. The goal of this research as outlined by NASA's Earth System Science Committee (Earth System Science: A closer View, 1988) is to understand the entire Earth system on a global scale by describing how its component parts and their interactions have evolved, how they function, and how they may be expected to evolve on all timescales. The practical result is the capacity to predict that evolution over the next decade to century. Key variables important for the study of global change include external forcing factors (solar radiance, UV flux), radiatively and chemically important trace species (CO2, CH4, N2O, etc.), atmospheric response variables (temperature, pressure, winds), landsurface properties (river run-off, snow cover, albedo, soil moisture, vegetation cover), and oceanic variables (sea surface temperature, sea ice extent, sea level ocean wind stress, currents, chlorophyll, biogeochemical fluxes). The purpose of this document is to identify existing data sets available (both remotely sensed and in situ data) covering some of these variables. This is not intended to be a complete list of global change data, but merely a highlight of what is available. The information was extracted from the Master Directory (MD), an on-line scientific data information service which may be used by any researcher. This report contains the coverage dates for the data sets, sources (satellites, instruments) of the data and where they are archived
Global change data sets: Excerpts from the Master Directory, version 2.0
Beier, Joy
1992-01-01
The recent awakening to the reality of human-induced changes to the environment has resulted in an organized effort to promote global change research. The goal of this research as outlined by NASA's Earth System Science Committee (Earth System Science: A closer View, 1988) is to understand the entire Earth system on a global scale by describing how its component parts and their interactions have evolved, how they function, and how they may be expected to evolve on all timescales. The practical result is the capacity to predict that evolution over the next decade to century. Key variables important for the study of global change include external forcing factors (solar radiance, UV flux), radiatively and chemically important trace species (CO2, CH4, N2O, etc.), atmospheric response variables (temperature, pressure, winds), landsurface properties (river run-off, snow cover, albedo, soil moisture, vegetation cover), and oceanic variables (sea surface temperature, sea ice extent, sea level ocean wind stress, currents, chlorophyll, biogeochemical fluxes). The purpose of this document is to identify existing data sets available (both remotely sensed and in situ data) covering some of these variables. This is not intended to be a complete list of global change data, but merely a highlight of what is available. The information was extracted from the Master Directory (MD), an on-line scientific data information service which may be used by any researcher. This report contains the coverage dates for the data sets, sources (satellites, instruments) of the data and where they are archived.
Transient Atmospheric Circulation Changes in a Grand ensemble of Idealized CO2 Increase Experiments
Karpechko, A.; Manzini, E.; Kornblueh, L.
2017-12-01
The yearly evolution with increasing forcing of the large-scale atmospheric circulation is examined in a 68-member ensemble of 1pctCO2 scenario experiments performed with the MPI-ESM model. Each member of the experiment ensemble is integrated for 155 years, from initial conditions taken from a 2000-yr long pre-industrial control climate experiment. The 1pctCO2 scenario experiments are conducted following the protocol of including as external forcing only a CO2 concentration increase at 1%/year, till quadrupling of CO2 concentrations. MPI-ESM is the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (including coupling between the atmosphere, ocean and seaice). By averaging over the 68 members (ensemble mean), atmospheric variability is greatly reduced. Thus, it is possible to investigate the sensitivity to the climate state of the atmospheric response to CO2 doubling. Indicators of global change show the expected monotonic evolution with increasing CO2 and a weak dependence of the thermodynamical response to CO2 doubling on the climate state. The surface climate response of the atmospheric circulation, diagnosed for instance by the pressure at sea level, and the eddy-driven jet response show instead a marked dependence to the climate state, for the Northern winter season. We find that as the CO2 concentration increases above doubling, Northern winter trends in some indicators of atmospheric circulation changes decrease or even reverse, posing the question on what are the causes of this nonlinear behavior. The investigation of the role of stationary waves, the meridional overturning circulation, the decrease in Arctic sea ice and the stratospheric vortex points to the latter as a plausible cause of such nonlinear response.
Soils and Global Change in the Carbon Cycle over Geological Time
Retallack, G. J.
2003-12-01
sedimentary rocks; organic matter burial is an important long-term control on CO2 levels in the atmosphere (Berner and Kothavala, 2001). The magnitudes of carbon pools and fluxes involved provide a perspective on the importance of soils compared with other carbon reservoirs ( Figure 1). (6K)Figure 1. Pools and fluxes of reduced carbon (bold) and oxidized carbon (regular) in Gt in the pre-industrial carbon cycle (sources Schidlowski and Aharon, 1992; Siegenthaler and Sarmiento, 1993; Stallard, 1998). Before industrialization, there was only 600 Gt (1 Gt=1015g) of carbon in CO2 and methane in the atmosphere, which is about the same amount as in all terrestrial biomass, but less than half of the reservoir of soil organic carbon. The ocean contained only ˜3 Gt of biomass carbon. The deep ocean and sediments comprised the largest reservoir of bicarbonate and organic matter, but that carbon has been kept out of circulation from the atmosphere for geologically significant periods of time (Schidlowski and Aharon, 1992). Humans have tapped underground reservoirs of fossil fuels, and our other perturbations of the carbon cycle have also been significant ( Vitousek et al., 1997b; see Chapter 8.10).Atmospheric increase of carbon in CO2 to 750 Gt C by deforestation and fossil fuel burning has driven ongoing global warming, but is not quite balanced by changes in the other carbon reservoirs leading to search for a "missing sink" of some 1.8±1.3 GtC, probably in terrestrial organisms, soils, and sediments of the northern hemisphere (Keeling et al., 1982; Siegenthaler and Sarmiento, 1993; Stallard, 1998). Soil organic matter is a big, rapidly cycling reservoir, likely to include much of this missing sink.During the geological past, the sizes of, and fluxes between, these reservoirs have varied enormously as the world has alternated between greenhouse times of high carbon content of the atmosphere, and icehouse times of low carbon content of the atmosphere. Oscillations in the atmospheric
The role of cosmic rays in the atmospheric processes
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Stozhkov, Y I [Lebedev Physical Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119991, Leninsky Prospect, 53, Moscow (Russian Federation)
2003-05-01
The energy flux of galactic cosmic rays falling on the earth's atmosphere is small in comparison with solar electromagnetic irradiation (by 10{sup 8} times). But at altitudes of h {approx} 3 to 35 km in the atmosphere, cosmic rays are the only ionization source (from the ground level up to h {approx} 3 km, natural radioactivity is an additional source of ionization). Solar activity modulates cosmic ray flux. The cosmic rays produce atmospheric ions that define the electrical properties of the atmosphere. The electric charges play a very important role in the processes of cloud and thundercloud formation in the operation of the global electric circuit. The changes in electric properties of the atmosphere influence weather and climate. Thus, we have the following chain of the solar terrestrial relationship: solar activity - cosmic ray modulation - changes in the global electric properties of the atmosphere - changes in weather and climate. The following questions are discussed in this paper: light ion production in the atmosphere, role of electric charges in the formation of clouds and thunderclouds, experimental evidences of the relationships between cosmic ray flux and atmospheric current and lightning.
The role of cosmic rays in the atmospheric processes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stozhkov, Y I
2003-01-01
The energy flux of galactic cosmic rays falling on the earth's atmosphere is small in comparison with solar electromagnetic irradiation (by 10 8 times). But at altitudes of h ∼ 3 to 35 km in the atmosphere, cosmic rays are the only ionization source (from the ground level up to h ∼ 3 km, natural radioactivity is an additional source of ionization). Solar activity modulates cosmic ray flux. The cosmic rays produce atmospheric ions that define the electrical properties of the atmosphere. The electric charges play a very important role in the processes of cloud and thundercloud formation in the operation of the global electric circuit. The changes in electric properties of the atmosphere influence weather and climate. Thus, we have the following chain of the solar terrestrial relationship: solar activity - cosmic ray modulation - changes in the global electric properties of the atmosphere - changes in weather and climate. The following questions are discussed in this paper: light ion production in the atmosphere, role of electric charges in the formation of clouds and thunderclouds, experimental evidences of the relationships between cosmic ray flux and atmospheric current and lightning
Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale
Pacyna, J. M.; Travnikov, O.; De Simone, F.; Hedgecock, I. M.; Sundseth, K.; Pacyna, E. G.; Steenhuisen, F.; Pirrone, N.; Munthe, J.; Kindbom, K.
2016-01-01
An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1993-01-01
A year after the environmental summit in Rio de Janeiro a turnabout in the alarming global environmental change is not within sight. Thoughtless economic activity and population growth threaten, damage or destroy many natural biospheres and biological communities world-wide. In the long term mankind is endangering its own survival. Global environmental changes have other causes and much more complex effects than most national environmental problems. In its first annual expertise of 1993, the scientific advisory council on ''Global Environmental Change'' describes the close global interknitting of man and nature, society and environment, in order to lay the foundation for future expertises. Global environmental targets and future economic development must be better matched to each other. In view of the following major trends: increase in world population, changing composition of the atmosphere in the long term, loss of biological variety and deterioration and loss of soils, the advisory committee gives some main recommendations: increase in German development aid to 1% of the GNP, rapid implementation of the climate convention, i.e., cuts in CO 2 emissions, and sensitization of citizens to global environmental problems as well as schemes for the promotion of environmentally-friendly practices. (orig./MG) [de
GLOBAL CHANGES IN THE SEA ICE COVER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. C. Comiso
2016-06-01
Full Text Available The trends in the sea ice cover in the two hemispheres have been observed to be asymmetric with the rate of change in the Arctic being negative at −3.8 % per decade while that of the Antarctic is positive at 1.7 % per decade. These observations are confirmed in this study through analyses of a more robust data set that has been enhanced for better consistency and updated for improved statistics. With reports of anthropogenic global warming such phenomenon appears physically counter intuitive but trend studies of surface temperature over the same time period show the occurrence of a similar asymmetry. Satellite surface temperature data show that while global warming is strong and dominant in the Arctic, it is relatively minor in the Antarctic with the trends in sea ice covered areas and surrounding ice free regions observed to be even negative. A strong correlation of ice extent with surface temperature is observed, especially during the growth season, and the observed trends in the sea ice cover are coherent with the trends in surface temperature. The trend of global averages of the ice cover is negative but modest and is consistent and compatible with the positive but modest trend in global surface temperature. A continuation of the trend would mean the disappearance of summer ice by the end of the century but modelling projections indicate that the summer ice could be salvaged if anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are kept constant at the current level.
Atmosphere physics and chemistry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Delmas, R.; Megie, G.; Peuch, V.H.
2005-10-01
Since the 1970's, the awareness about the atmospheric pollution threat has led to a spectacular development of the researches on the complex interactions between the chemical composition of the atmosphere and the climate. This book makes a synthesis of the state-of-the-art in this very active domain of research. Content: introduction, atmosphere dynamics and transport, matter-radiation interaction and radiant transfer, physico-chemical processes, atmospheric aerosol and heterogenous chemistry, anthropic and natural emissions and deposition, stratospheric chemical system, tropospheric chemical system, polluted boundary layer, paleo-environments and ice archives, role of atmospheric chemistry in global changes, measurement principles and instruments, numerical modeling, experimental strategy, regulation and management of the atmospheric environment, index. (J.S.)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wang, Rong
2015-06-01
This thesis presents research focusing on the improvement of high-resolution global black carbon (BC) emission inventory and application in assessing the population exposure to ambient BC. A particular focus of the thesis is on the construction of a high-resolution (both spatial and sectorial) fuel consumption database, which is used to develop the emission inventory of black carbon. Above all, the author updates the global emission inventory of black carbon, a resource subsequently used to study the atmospheric transport of black carbon over Asia with the help of a high-resolution nested model. The thesis demonstrates that spatial bias in fuel consumption and BC emissions can be reduced by means of the sub-national disaggregation approach. Using the inventory and nested model, ambient BC concentrations can be better validated against observations. Lastly, it provides a complete uncertainty analysis of global black carbon emissions, and this uncertainty is taken into account in the atmospheric modeling, helping to better understand the role of black carbon in regional and global air pollution.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
2001-05-01
The Norwegian Global Change Committee has made an inventory of global change research (GCR) projects funded by the Research Council of Norway (RCN) in 2001. In lack of a rigid definition, GCR was defined as research that can be considered relevant to the science agenda of the four major international global change programmes DIVERSITAS, IGBP, IHDP and WCRP. Relevance was judged based on the objectives stated for each of the international programmes and their core projects. It was not attempted to check whether the projects had any kind of link to the programmes they were considered relevant for. The grants provided by the RCN in 2001 to GCR as defined above amounts to about 77 mill. NOK. Based on a recent survey on climate change research it is reasonable to estimate that the RCN finances between 30 and 40 % of all GCR in Norway. Accordingly, the total value of Norwegian research relevant to the four international global change programmes in 2001 can be estimated to 192 - 254 mill. NOK.
Dynamics of energy technologies and global change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Grubler, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Victor, D.G.
1999-01-01
Technological choices largely determine the long-term characteristics of industrial society, including impacts on the natural environment. However, the treatment of technology in existing models that are used to project economic and environmental futures remains highly stylized. Based on work over two decades at IIASA, we present a useful typology for technology analysis and discuss methods that can be used to analyze the impact of technological changes on the global environment, especially global warming. Our focus is energy technologies, the main source of many atmospheric environmental problems. We show that much improved treatment of technology is possible with a combination of historical analysis and new modeling techniques. In the historical record, we identify characteristic 'learning rates' that allow simple quantified characterization of the improvement in cost and performance due to cumulative experience and investments. We also identify patterns, processes and timescales that typify the diffusion of new technologies in competitive markets. Technologies that are long-lived and are components of interlocking networks typically require the longest time to diffuse and co-evolve with other technologies in the network; such network effects yield high barriers to entry even for superior competitors. These simple observations allow three improvements to modeling of technological change and its consequences for global environmental change. One is that the replacement of long-lived infrastructures over time has also replaced the fuels that power the economy to yield progressively more energy per unit of carbon pollution - from coal to oil to gas. Such replacement has 'decarbonized' the global primary energy supply 0.3% per year. In contrast, most baseline projections for emissions of carbon, the chief cause of global warming, ignore this robust historical trend and show Iittle or no decarbonization. A second improvement is that by incorporating learning curves and
Global monopoles can change Universe's topology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Marunović, Anja; Prokopec, Tomislav
2016-01-01
If the Universe undergoes a phase transition, at which global monopoles are created or destroyed, topology of its spatial sections can change. More specifically, by making use of Myers' theorem, we show that, after a transition in which global monopoles form, spatial sections of a spatially flat, infinite Universe becomes finite and closed. This implies that global monopoles can change the topology of Universe's spatial sections (from infinite and open to finite and closed). Global monopoles cannot alter the topology of the space-time manifold.
Mapping the spatial distribution of global anthropogenic mercury atmospheric emission inventories
Wilson, Simon J.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pacyna, Jozef M.; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.
This paper describes the procedures employed to spatially distribute global inventories of anthropogenic emissions of mercury to the atmosphere, prepared by Pacyna, E.G., Pacyna, J.M., Steenhuisen, F., Wilson, S. [2006. Global anthropogenic mercury emission inventory for 2000. Atmospheric Environment, this issue, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.03.041], and briefly discusses the results of this work. A new spatially distributed global emission inventory for the (nominal) year 2000, and a revised version of the 1995 inventory are presented. Emissions estimates for total mercury and major species groups are distributed within latitude/longitude-based grids with a resolution of 1×1 and 0.5×0.5°. A key component in the spatial distribution procedure is the use of population distribution as a surrogate parameter to distribute emissions from sources that cannot be accurately geographically located. In this connection, new gridded population datasets were prepared, based on the CEISIN GPW3 datasets (CIESIN, 2004. Gridded Population of the World (GPW), Version 3. Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT). GPW3 data are available at http://beta.sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/index.jsp). The spatially distributed emissions inventories and population datasets prepared in the course of this work are available on the Internet at www.amap.no/Resources/HgEmissions/
Interhemispheric Changes in Atlantic Ocean Heat Content and Their Link to Global Monsoons
Lopez, H.; Lee, S. K.; Dong, S.; Goni, G. J.
2015-12-01
This study tested the hypothesis whether low frequency decadal variability of the South Atlantic meridional heat transport (SAMHT) influences decadal variability of the global monsoons. A multi-century run from a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model is used as basis for the analysis. Our findings indicate that multi-decadal variability of the South Atlantic Ocean plays a key role in modulating atmospheric circulation via interhemispheric changes in Atlantic Ocean heat content. Weaker SAMHT produces anomalous ocean heat divergence over the South Atlantic resulting in negative ocean heat content anomaly about 15 years later. This, in turn, forces a thermally direct anomalous interhemispheric Hadley circulation in the atmosphere, transporting heat from the northern hemisphere (NH) to the southern hemisphere (SH) and moisture from the SH to the NH, thereby intensify (weaken) summer (winter) monsoon in the NH and winter (summer) monsoon in the SH. Results also show that anomalous atmospheric eddies, both transient and stationary, transport heat northward in both hemispheres producing eddy heat flux convergence (divergence) in the NH (SH) around 15-30°, reinforcing the anomalous Hadley circulation. The effect of eddies on the NH (SH) poleward of 30° is opposite with heat flux divergence (convergence), which must be balanced by sinking (rising) motion, consistent with a poleward (equatorward) displacement of the jet stream and mean storm track. The mechanism described here could easily be interpreted for the case of strong SAMHT, with the reverse influence on the interhemispheric atmospheric circulation and monsoons. Overall, SAMHT decadal variability leads its atmospheric response by about 15 years, suggesting that the South Atlantic is a potential predictor of global climate variability.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Franziska Eller
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Phragmites australis is a cosmopolitan grass and often the dominant species in the ecosystems it inhabits. Due to high intraspecific diversity and phenotypic plasticity, P. australis has an extensive ecological amplitude and a great capacity to acclimate to adverse environmental conditions; it can therefore offer valuable insights into plant responses to global change. Here we review the ecology and ecophysiology of prominent P. australis lineages and their responses to multiple forms of global change. Key findings of our review are that: (1 P. australis lineages are well-adapted to regions of their phylogeographic origin and therefore respond differently to changes in climatic conditions such as temperature or atmospheric CO2; (2 each lineage consists of populations that may occur in geographically different habitats and contain multiple genotypes; (3 the phenotypic plasticity of functional and fitness-related traits of a genotype determine the responses to global change factors; (4 genotypes with high plasticity to environmental drivers may acclimate or even vastly expand their ranges, genotypes of medium plasticity must acclimate or experience range-shifts, and those with low plasticity may face local extinction; (5 responses to ancillary types of global change, like shifting levels of soil salinity, flooding, and drought, are not consistent within lineages and depend on adaptation of individual genotypes. These patterns suggest that the diverse lineages of P. australis will undergo intense selective pressure in the face of global change such that the distributions and interactions of co-occurring lineages, as well as those of genotypes within-lineages, are very likely to be altered. We propose that the strong latitudinal clines within and between P. australis lineages can be a useful tool for predicting plant responses to climate change in general and present a conceptual framework for using P. australis lineages to predict plant responses
A variable resolution nonhydrostatic global atmospheric semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian model
Pouliot, George Antoine
2000-10-01
The objective of this project is to develop a variable-resolution finite difference adiabatic global nonhydrostatic semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian (SISL) model based on the fully compressible nonhydrostatic atmospheric equations. To achieve this goal, a three-dimensional variable resolution dynamical core was developed and tested. The main characteristics of the dynamical core can be summarized as follows: Spherical coordinates were used in a global domain. A hydrostatic/nonhydrostatic switch was incorporated into the dynamical equations to use the fully compressible atmospheric equations. A generalized horizontal variable resolution grid was developed and incorporated into the model. For a variable resolution grid, in contrast to a uniform resolution grid, the order of accuracy of finite difference approximations is formally lost but remains close to the order of accuracy associated with the uniform resolution grid provided the grid stretching is not too significant. The SISL numerical scheme was implemented for the fully compressible set of equations. In addition, the generalized minimum residual (GMRES) method with restart and preconditioner was used to solve the three-dimensional elliptic equation derived from the discretized system of equations. The three-dimensional momentum equation was integrated in vector-form to incorporate the metric terms in the calculations of the trajectories. Using global re-analysis data for a specific test case, the model was compared to similar SISL models previously developed. Reasonable agreement between the model and the other independently developed models was obtained. The Held-Suarez test for dynamical cores was used for a long integration and the model was successfully integrated for up to 1200 days. Idealized topography was used to test the variable resolution component of the model. Nonhydrostatic effects were simulated at grid spacings of 400 meters with idealized topography and uniform flow. Using a high
Pimping climate change: Richard Branson, global warming, and the performance of green capitalism
Scott Prudham
2009-01-01
On 21 September 2006 UK über-entrepreneur and Virgin Group Chairman Richard Branson pledged approximately £1.6 billion, the equivalent of all the profits from Virgin Atlantic and Virgin Trains for the next ten years, to fighting climate change. Since then, Branson has restated his commitment to action on global warming, including investment in technologies for sequestering carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. In this paper, I critically examine and engage with Branson’s announcements as a spec...
Vulnerability of Hidropower Generation in Amazon's Tributaries Under Global Change Scenarios
Von Randow, R.; Siqueira, J. L., Jr.; Rodriguez, D. A.; Tomasella, J.; Floriano, L. E.
2014-12-01
The Brazilian energy sector is under continued expansion. The majority of energy power generation in the country is done through hydropower, which represents around 88% of the energy originated from renewable sources in the country. Still, only 10% of the high potential for production of the Amazon basin is currently availed, and this raises attention for the implantation of new hydropower plants in the region. When a hydropower plant is considered to be built, the natural characteristics of the region are taken into account, considering that the rainfall regime follows certain stationarity. However, under the possibility of global change, the expected capacity of the plants may be compromised. The objective of this study is to evaluate if the current hydropower plants of some Amazon River tributaries can maintain their functionality under global environmental change conditions. For that, based on the discharge data and hydropower information available by Brazilian National Agency of Water and Energy we will infer the energy potential of these hydropower dams for the historic period that will be compared with the energy potential for future discharge under global environmental change conditions. The future discharge will be generated by the Distributed Hydrological Model developed at the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (MHD-INPE), driven by different climate change scenarios projected by regional and global atmospheric models, associated with land use scenarios projected by a dynamic land use model (LUCC-ME/INPE). MHD-INPE will be calibrated through observed discharges for 1970-1990 using current land use conditions, and will generate discharges for the period of 2000 to 2050. In addition, special attention will be given to the presence of secondary forest growth in the land use scenarios in order to identify the importance of considering this use in the modelling exercise, since that use is not usually considered in hydrological modelling studies.
A Global Atmospheric Model of Meteoric Iron
Feng, Wuhu; Marsh, Daniel R.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Janches, Diego; Hoffner, Josef; Yi, Fan; Plane, John M. C.
2013-01-01
The first global model of meteoric iron in the atmosphere (WACCM-Fe) has been developed by combining three components: the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a description of the neutral and ion-molecule chemistry of iron in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), and a treatment of the injection of meteoric constituents into the atmosphere. The iron chemistry treats seven neutral and four ionized iron containing species with 30 neutral and ion-molecule reactions. The meteoric input function (MIF), which describes the injection of Fe as a function of height, latitude, and day, is precalculated from an astronomical model coupled to a chemical meteoric ablation model (CABMOD). This newly developed WACCM-Fe model has been evaluated against a number of available ground-based lidar observations and performs well in simulating the mesospheric atomic Fe layer. The model reproduces the strong positive correlation of temperature and Fe density around the Fe layer peak and the large anticorrelation around 100 km. The diurnal tide has a significant effect in the middle of the layer, and the model also captures well the observed seasonal variations. However, the model overestimates the peak Fe+ concentration compared with the limited rocket-borne mass spectrometer data available, although good agreement on the ion layer underside can be obtained by adjusting the rate coefficients for dissociative recombination of Fe-molecular ions with electrons. Sensitivity experiments with the same chemistry in a 1-D model are used to highlight significant remaining uncertainties in reaction rate coefficients, and to explore the dependence of the total Fe abundance on the MIF and rate of vertical transport.
U.S. Hail Frequency and the Global Wind Oscillation
Gensini, Vittorio A.; Allen, John T.
2018-02-01
Changes in Earth relative atmospheric angular momentum can be described by an index known as the Global Wind Oscillation. This global index accounts for changes in Earth's atmospheric budget of relative angular momentum through interactions of tropical convection anomalies, extratropical dynamics, and engagement of surface torques (e.g., friction and mountain). It is shown herein that U.S. hail events are more (less) likely to occur in low (high) atmospheric angular momentum base states when excluding weak Global Wind Oscillation days, with the strongest relationships found in the boreal spring and fall. Severe, significant severe, and giant hail events are more likely to occur during Global Wind Oscillation phases 8, 1, 2, and 3 during the peak of U.S. severe weather season. Lower frequencies of hail events are generally found in Global Wind Oscillation phases 4-7 but vary based on Global Wind Oscillation amplitude and month. In addition, probabilistic anomalies of atmospheric ingredients supportive of hail producing supercell thunderstorms closely mimic locations of reported hail frequency, helping to corroborate report results.
Towards a Global Unified Model of Europa's Tenuous Atmosphere
Plainaki, Christina; Cassidy, Tim A.; Shematovich, Valery I.; Milillo, Anna; Wurz, Peter; Vorburger, Audrey; Roth, Lorenz; Galli, André; Rubin, Martin; Blöcker, Aljona; Brandt, Pontus C.; Crary, Frank; Dandouras, Iannis; Jia, Xianzhe; Grassi, Davide; Hartogh, Paul; Lucchetti, Alice; McGrath, Melissa; Mangano, Valeria; Mura, Alessandro; Orsini, Stefano; Paranicas, Chris; Radioti, Aikaterini; Retherford, Kurt D.; Saur, Joachim; Teolis, Ben
2018-02-01
Despite the numerous modeling efforts of the past, our knowledge on the radiation-induced physical and chemical processes in Europa's tenuous atmosphere and on the exchange of material between the moon's surface and Jupiter's magnetosphere remains limited. In lack of an adequate number of in situ observations, the existence of a wide variety of models based on different scenarios and considerations has resulted in a fragmentary understanding of the interactions of the magnetospheric ion population with both the moon's icy surface and neutral gas envelope. Models show large discrepancy in the source and loss rates of the different constituents as well as in the determination of the spatial distribution of the atmosphere and its variation with time. The existence of several models based on very different approaches highlights the need of a detailed comparison among them with the final goal of developing a unified model of Europa's tenuous atmosphere. The availability to the science community of such a model could be of particular interest in view of the planning of the future mission observations (e.g., ESA's JUpiter ICy moons Explorer (JUICE) mission, and NASA's Europa Clipper mission). We review the existing models of Europa's tenuous atmosphere and discuss each of their derived characteristics of the neutral environment. We also discuss discrepancies among different models and the assumptions of the plasma environment in the vicinity of Europa. A summary of the existing observations of both the neutral and the plasma environments at Europa is also presented. The characteristics of a global unified model of the tenuous atmosphere are, then, discussed. Finally, we identify needed future experimental work in laboratories and propose some suitable observation strategies for upcoming missions.
Global Environmental Change: An integrated modelling approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Den Elzen, M.
1993-01-01
Two major global environmental problems are dealt with: climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion (and their mutual interactions), briefly surveyed in part 1. In Part 2 a brief description of the integrated modelling framework IMAGE 1.6 is given. Some specific parts of the model are described in more detail in other Chapters, e.g. the carbon cycle model, the atmospheric chemistry model, the halocarbon model, and the UV-B impact model. In Part 3 an uncertainty analysis of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion is presented (Chapter 4). Chapter 5 briefly reviews the social and economic uncertainties implied by future greenhouse gas emissions. Chapters 6 and 7 describe a model and sensitivity analysis pertaining to the scientific uncertainties and/or lacunae in the sources and sinks of methane and carbon dioxide, and their biogeochemical feedback processes. Chapter 8 presents an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the carbon cycle model, the halocarbon model, and the IMAGE model 1.6 as a whole. Part 4 presents the risk assessment methodology as applied to the problems of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion more specifically. In Chapter 10, this methodology is used as a means with which to asses current ozone policy and a wide range of halocarbon policies. Chapter 11 presents and evaluates the simulated globally-averaged temperature and sea level rise (indicators) for the IPCC-1990 and 1992 scenarios, concluding with a Low Risk scenario, which would meet the climate targets. Chapter 12 discusses the impact of sea level rise on the frequency of the Dutch coastal defence system (indicator) for the IPCC-1990 scenarios. Chapter 13 presents projections of mortality rates due to stratospheric ozone depletion based on model simulations employing the UV-B chain model for a number of halocarbon policies. Chapter 14 presents an approach for allocating future emissions of CO 2 among regions. (Abstract Truncated)
Modeling the global atmospheric transport and deposition of mercury to the Great Lakes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mark D. Cohen
2016-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Mercury contamination in the Great Lakes continues to have important public health and wildlife ecotoxicology impacts, and atmospheric deposition is a significant ongoing loading pathway. The objective of this study was to estimate the amount and source-attribution for atmospheric mercury deposition to each lake, information needed to prioritize amelioration efforts. A new global, Eulerian version of the HYSPLIT-Hg model was used to simulate the 2005 global atmospheric transport and deposition of mercury to the Great Lakes. In addition to the base case, 10 alternative model configurations were used to examine sensitivity to uncertainties in atmospheric mercury chemistry and surface exchange. A novel atmospheric lifetime analysis was used to characterize fate and transport processes within the model. Model-estimated wet deposition and atmospheric concentrations of gaseous elemental mercury (Hg(0 were generally within ∼10% of measurements in the Great Lakes region. The model overestimated non-Hg(0 concentrations by a factor of 2–3, similar to other modeling studies. Potential reasons for this disagreement include model inaccuracies, differences in atmospheric Hg fractions being compared, and the measurements being biased low. Lake Erie, downwind of significant local/regional emissions sources, was estimated by the model to be the most impacted by direct anthropogenic emissions (58% of the base case total deposition, while Lake Superior, with the fewest upwind local/regional sources, was the least impacted (27%. The U.S. was the largest national contributor, followed by China, contributing 25% and 6%, respectively, on average, for the Great Lakes. The contribution of U.S. direct anthropogenic emissions to total mercury deposition varied between 46% for the base case (with a range of 24–51% over all model configurations for Lake Erie and 11% (range 6–13% for Lake Superior. These results illustrate the importance of atmospheric
Global change and its implications for Alaska
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Weller, G.
1993-01-01
In the 1980s versions of climate models, the Arctic and Antarctic regions were considered crucial in understanding and predicting climate change, and there is also agreement that climate change will have large impacts in the Arctic since the climate signal is amplified at high latitudes. The earlier climate change scenarios are re-examined for the case of Alaska, in light of more recent information. Observational evidence in the Arctic over the last few decades agrees well with predictions of a current global climate model, including temperature increase over land masses of up to 1 degree C per decade in winter, with smaller changes in summer. Other indirect evidence of a warmer Arctic climate includes receding glaciers and warmer permafrost temperatures. It is predicted that after the CO 2 content of the atmosphere doubles, winter temperatures in Alaska will increase 6-8 degree C. In much of the interior, mean annual temperature will rise above freezing, leading to disappearance of discontinuous permafrost. The growing season would be lengthened by about three weeks, vegetation types and the abundance and distribution of mammals will change, and there will be less sea ice along coastal areas. Impacts on human activities will be both adverse and favorable; for example, in the petroleum industry, maintenance of pipelines and roads will be more difficult but offshore exploration and marine supply operations will be made easier. 6 refs., 3 tabs
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stendel, Martin; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Christensen, Jens H.
2007-01-01
Even though we can estimate the zonation of present-day permafrost from deep-soil temperatures obtained from global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) by accounting for heat conduction in the frozen soil, it is impossible to explicitly resolve soil properties, vegetation......, in particular in mountainous regions. By using global climate change scenarios as driving fields, one can obtain permafrost dynamics in high temporal resolution on the order of years. For the 21st century under the IPCC SRES scenarios A2 and B2, we find an increase of mean annual ground temperature by up to 6 K...
Park, K.; Mak, J. E.; Emmons, L. K.
2008-12-01
Carbon monoxide is not only an important component for determining the atmospheric oxidizing capacity but also a key trace gas in the atmospheric chemistry of the Earth's background environment. The global CO cycle and its change are closely related to both the change of CO mixing ratio and the change of source strength. Previously, to estimate the global CO budget, most top-down estimation techniques have been applied the concentrations of CO solely. Since CO from certain sources has a unique isotopic signature, its isotopes provide additional information to constrain its sources. Thus, coupling the concentration and isotope fraction information enables to tightly constrain CO flux by its sources and allows better estimations on the global CO budget. MOZART4 (Model for Ozone And Related chemical Tracers), a 3-D global chemical transport model developed at NCAR, MPI for meteorology and NOAA/GFDL and is used to simulate the global CO concentration and its isotopic signature. Also, a tracer version of MOZART4 which tagged for C16O and C18O from each region and each source was developed to see their contributions to the atmosphere efficiently. Based on the nine-year-simulation results we analyze the influences of each source of CO to the isotopic signature and the concentration. Especially, the evaluations are focused on the oxygen isotope of CO (δ18O), which has not been extensively studied yet. To validate the model performance, CO concentrations and isotopic signatures measured from MPI, NIWA and our lab are compared to the modeled results. The MOZART4 reproduced observational data fairly well; especially in mid to high latitude northern hemisphere. Bayesian inversion techniques have been used to estimate the global CO budget with combining observed and modeled CO concentration. However, previous studies show significant differences in their estimations on CO source strengths. Because, in addition to the CO mixing ratio, isotopic signatures are independent tracers
ANSTO radon monitoring within the WMO global atmosphere watch programme
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zahorowski, W.; Chambers, S.; Sisoutham, O.; Werczynski, S.
2003-01-01
A brief overview of results from the ANSTO radon programmes at the Cape Grim (Tasmania) and Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii), World Meteorological Organisation Global Atmosphere Watch stations it presented. At Cape Grim, a 100 mBq m 3 threshold on radon concentration observations has proven to be a suitable criterion for Baseline monitoring. Furthermore, analysis of the Cape Grim Baseline radon data has enabled the characterisation of the oceanic radon flux over the Southern Ocean Cape Grim fetch region. Radon observations at the Mauna Loa Observatory, in conjunction with back trajectory analysis, have helped to identify the source regions of the most pervasive pollution events in the atmosphere of the Pacific Basin. The seasonal variability in the strength of terrestrial influence on Pacific air masses has also been characterised
Global trends in wildfire - perceptions and realities in a changing world
Doerr, Stefan; Santin, Cristina
2017-04-01
Wildfire has been an important process affecting the Earth's surface and atmosphere for over 350 million years and human societies have coexisted with fire since their emergence. Many consider wildfire as an accelerating problem, with widely held perceptions both in the media and scientific papers of increasing fire occurrence, severity and resulting losses. Whilst fire and associated impacts have indeed increased in some regions, such parts of western North America, Canada and Russia, fire has been decreasing in other regions such as African savannas. Overall, global area burned appears to have changed little over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago. Regarding fire severity, limited data are available. For the western USA, they indicate little change overall, and also that area burned at high severity has overall declined compared to pre-European settlement. Direct fatalities from fire and economic losses also show no clear trends over the past three decades. Trends in indirect impacts, such as health problems from smoke or disruption to social functioning may indeed be on the rise, however, they remain insufficiently quantified to be thoroughly examined. Notwithstanding these general observations, the changes in global fire distribution are of concern due to, for example, their detrimental impacts on peat and soil carbon stores in boreal and some tropical regions, or air pollution levels in SE-Asia. These and other impacts are likely to accelerate in a future warmer climate. This presentation aims to contribute to reducing misconceptions in fire trends and to facilitating a more informed understanding of the realities of global fire.
Impact of bulk atmospheric motion on local and global containment heat transfer
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Green, J.A.; Almenas, K.
1995-01-01
Local and global correlations for condensing energy transfer in the presence of noncondensable gases in a containment facility have been evaluated. The database employed stems from the E11.2 and E11.4 tests conducted at the German HDR facility. The HDR containment is a 11060-ml, 60-m-high decommissioned light water reactor. The tests simulated long-term (up to 56 h) accident conditions. Numerous instrumented structural blocks (concrete and lead) were located throughout the containment to provide detailed local heat transfer measurements. These data represent what is probably the most extensive database of integral energy transfer measurements available. It is well established that the major resistance to condensation heat transfer in the presence of noncondensable gases is a gaseous boundary layer that builds up in front of the condensing surface. Correlations that seek to model heat transfer for these conditions should depend on parameters that most strongly determine the buildup and thickness of this boundary layer. Two of the most important parameters are the vapor/noncondensable concentration ratio and the local atmospheric motion. Secondary parameters include the atmosphere-to-surface temperature difference, the pressure, and condensing surface properties. The HDR tests are unique in terms of the quantity and variety of instrumentation employed. However, one of the most important parameters, the local bulk atmospheric velocity, is inherently difficult to measure, and only fragmentary measurements are available even in the HDR data-base. A detailed analysis of these data is presented by Green. This study uses statistical methods to evaluate local and global empirical correlations that do not include the atmospheric velocity. The magnitude of the differences between the correlations emphasizes the importance of the local atmospheric velocity and serves to illustrate the accuracy limits of correlations that neglect this essential parameter
Uncertainty and global climate change research
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tonn, B.E. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Weiher, R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO (United States)
1994-06-01
The Workshop on Uncertainty and Global Climate Change Research March 22--23, 1994, in Knoxville, Tennessee. This report summarizes the results and recommendations of the workshop. The purpose of the workshop was to examine in-depth the concept of uncertainty. From an analytical point of view, uncertainty is a central feature of global climate science, economics and decision making. The magnitude and complexity of uncertainty surrounding global climate change has made it quite difficult to answer even the most simple and important of questions-whether potentially costly action is required now to ameliorate adverse consequences of global climate change or whether delay is warranted to gain better information to reduce uncertainties. A major conclusion of the workshop is that multidisciplinary integrated assessments using decision analytic techniques as a foundation is key to addressing global change policy concerns. First, uncertainty must be dealt with explicitly and rigorously since it is and will continue to be a key feature of analysis and recommendations on policy questions for years to come. Second, key policy questions and variables need to be explicitly identified, prioritized, and their uncertainty characterized to guide the entire scientific, modeling, and policy analysis process. Multidisciplinary integrated assessment techniques and value of information methodologies are best suited for this task. In terms of timeliness and relevance of developing and applying decision analytic techniques, the global change research and policy communities are moving rapidly toward integrated approaches to research design and policy analysis.
Global Dimming and Brightening Versus Atmospheric Column Transparency, Europe 1906-2007
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ohvril, H.; Teral, H.; Neiman, L.; Kannel, Martin; Uustare, M.; Tee, M.; Russak, V.; Okulov, O.; Joeveer, A.; Kallis, A.; Ohvril, Tiiu; Terez, E.; Terez, G.; Gushchin, G.; Abakumova, G. M.; Gorbarenko, Ekaterina V.; Tsvetkov, Anatoly V.; Laulainen, Nels S.
2009-05-09
Multiannual changes in atmospheric column transparency based on measurements of direct solar radiation allow us to assess various tendencies in climatic changes. Variability of the atmospheric integral (broadband) transparency coefficient, calculated according to the Bouguer-Lambert law and transformed to a solar elevation of 30°, is used for two Russian locations, Pavlovsk and Moscow, one Ukrainian location, Feodosiya, and three Estonian locations, Tartu, Tõravere, and Tiirikoja, covering together a 102-year period, 1906–2007. The comparison of time series revealed significant parallelism. Multiannual trends demonstrate decrease in transparency during the postwar period until 1983/1984. The trend ends with a steep decline of transparency after a series of four volcanic eruptions of Soufriere (1979), Saint Helens (1980), Alaid (1981), and El Chichón (1982). From 1984/1985 to 1990 the atmosphere remarkably restored its clarity, which almost reached again the level of the 1960s. Following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo (June 1991), there was the most significant reduction in column transparency of the postwar period. However, from the end of 1990s, the atmosphere in all considered locations is characterized with high values of transparency. The clearing of the atmosphere (from 1993) evidently indicates a decrease in the content of aerosol particles and, besides the decline of volcanic activity, may therefore be also traced to environmentally oriented changes in technology (pollution prevention), to general industrial and agricultural decline in the territory of the former USSR and Eastern Europe after deep political changes in 1991, and in part to migration of some industries out of Europe.
Global dimming and brightening versus atmospheric column transparency, Europe, 1906-2007
Ohvril, Hanno; Teral, Hilda; Neiman, Lennart; Kannel, Martin; Uustare, Marika; Tee, Mati; Russak, Viivi; Okulov, Oleg; Jõeveer, Anne; Kallis, Ain; Ohvril, Tiiu; Terez, Edward I.; Terez, Galina A.; Gushchin, Gennady K.; Abakumova, Galina M.; Gorbarenko, Ekaterina V.; Tsvetkov, Anatoly V.; Laulainen, Nels
2009-05-01
Multiannual changes in atmospheric column transparency based on measurements of direct solar radiation allow us to assess various tendencies in climatic changes. Variability of the atmospheric integral (broadband) transparency coefficient, calculated according to the Bouguer-Lambert law and transformed to a solar elevation of 30°, is used for two Russian locations, Pavlovsk and Moscow, one Ukrainian location, Feodosiya, and three Estonian locations, Tartu, Tõravere, and Tiirikoja, covering together a 102-year period, 1906-2007. The comparison of time series revealed significant parallelism. Multiannual trends demonstrate decrease in transparency during the postwar period until 1983/1984. The trend ends with a steep decline of transparency after a series of four volcanic eruptions of Soufriere (1979), Saint Helens (1980), Alaid (1981), and El Chichón (1982). From 1984/1985 to 1990 the atmosphere remarkably restored its clarity, which almost reached again the level of the 1960s. Following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo (June 1991), there was the most significant reduction in column transparency of the postwar period. However, from the end of 1990s, the atmosphere in all considered locations is characterized with high values of transparency. The clearing of the atmosphere (from 1993) evidently indicates a decrease in the content of aerosol particles and, besides the decline of volcanic activity, may therefore be also traced to environmentally oriented changes in technology (pollution prevention), to general industrial and agricultural decline in the territory of the former USSR and Eastern Europe after deep political changes in 1991, and in part to migration of some industries out of Europe.
Global atmospheric budget of simple monocyclic aromatic compounds
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
D. Cabrera-Perez
2016-06-01
Full Text Available The global atmospheric budget and distribution of monocyclic aromatic compounds is estimated, using an atmospheric chemistry general circulation model. Simulation results are evaluated with an ensemble of surface and aircraft observations with the goal of understanding emission, production and removal of these compounds.Anthropogenic emissions provided by the RCP database represent the largest source of aromatics in the model (≃ 23 TgC year−1 and biomass burning from the GFAS inventory the second largest (≃ 5 TgC year−1. The simulated chemical production of aromatics accounts for ≃ 5 TgC year−1. The atmospheric burden of aromatics sums up to 0.3 TgC. The main removal process of aromatics is photochemical decomposition (≃ 27 TgC year−1, while wet and dry deposition are responsible for a removal of ≃ 4 TgC year−1.Simulated mixing ratios at the surface and elsewhere in the troposphere show good spatial and temporal agreement with the observations for benzene, although the model generally underestimates mixing ratios. Toluene is generally well reproduced by the model at the surface, but mixing ratios in the free troposphere are underestimated. Finally, larger discrepancies are found for xylenes: surface mixing ratios are not only overestimated but also a low temporal correlation is found with respect to in situ observations.
Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change · Climate Change: Generic Implications for Agriculture · Controlled environment facilities at IARI used for evaluating model performance in future climate change scenarios · Slide 4 · Slide 5 · Global studies indicate considerable impact of climate change in tropics.
Murguia-Flores, Fabiola; Arndt, Sandra; Ganesan, Anita L.; Murray-Tortarolo, Guillermo; Hornibrook, Edward R. C.
2018-06-01
, MeMo predicted low fluxes in wet tropical regions because of refinements in formulation of the influence of excess soil moisture on methanotrophy. Tundra and mixed forest had the lowest simulated CH4 uptake rates of 176 and 182 mg CH4 m-2 yr-1, respectively, due to their marked seasonality driven by temperature. Global soil uptake of atmospheric CH4 was decreased by 4 % by the effect of nitrogen inputs to the system; however, the direct addition of fertilizers attenuated the flux by 72 % in regions with high agricultural intensity (i.e. China, India and Europe) and by 4-10 % in agriculture areas receiving low rates of N input (e.g. South America). Globally, nitrogen inputs reduced soil uptake of atmospheric CH4 by 1.38 Tg yr-1, which is 2-5 times smaller than reported previously. In addition to improved characterization of the contemporary soil sink for atmospheric CH4, MeMo provides an opportunity to quantify more accurately the relative importance of soil methanotrophy in the global CH4 cycle in the past and its capacity to contribute to reduction of atmospheric CH4 levels under future global change scenarios.
Global climate change: A U.S. business community's perspective
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shales, J.
1994-01-01
Scientists from all over the world are currently attempting to evaluate the impact of both manmade and natural phenomena on climate change, including such issues as the role of oceans as sinks in absorbing CO 2 , the role of sunspots, the absorptive capacity of different tree species, the impact of nitrous oxide and non- CO 2 greenhouse gases, the length of time carbon remains in the atmosphere, the impact of ocean currents and innumerable other issues. Understanding these phenomena, and their interaction will be critical to properly addressing the issue which has tremendous importance for both the US and the world economic future development. The climate change issue has the potential to become the vehicle which will link developing countries to the rest of the world, since, embodies in the global climate debate are several of the social issues that the U.N. has attempted to address over the last two decades: hunger, overpopulation, environment, technology, and development. The climate change issue has the potential to test new international institutions, relationships between developed and developing counties and between traditional trading partners
The Global Monsoon as Seen through the Divergent Atmospheric Circulation.
Trenberth, Kevin E.; Stepaniak, David P.; Caron, Julie M.
2000-11-01
A comprehensive description is given of the global monsoon as seen through the large-scale overturning in the atmosphere that changes with the seasons, and it provides a basis for delimiting the monsoon regions of the world. The analysis focuses on the mean annual cycle of the divergent winds and associated vertical motions, as given by the monthly mean fields for 1979-93 reanalyses from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which are able to reproduce the dominant modes. A complex empirical orthogonal function analysis of the divergent circulation brings out two dominant modes with essentially the same vertical structures in all months of the year. The first mode, which depicts the global monsoon, has a simple vertical structure with a maximum in vertical motion at about 400 mb, divergence in the upper troposphere that is strongest at 150 mb and decays to zero amplitude above 70 mb, and convergence in the lower troposphere with a maximum at 925 mb (ECMWF) or 850 mb (NCEP). However, this mode has a rich three-dimensional spatial structure that evolves with the seasons. It accounts for 60% of the annual cycle variance of the divergent mass circulation and dominates the Hadley circulation as well as three overturning transverse cells. These include the Pacific Walker circulation; an Americas-Atlantic Walker circulation, both of which comprise rising motion in the west and sinking in the east; and a transverse cell over Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, and the Indian Ocean that has rising motion in the east and sinking toward the west. These exist year-round but migrate and evolve considerably with the seasons and have about a third to half of the mass flux of the peak Hadley cell. The annual cycle of the two Hadley cells reveals peak strength in early February and early August in both reanalyses.A second monsoon mode, which accounts for
Petrescu, A.M.R.; Abad-Vinas, Raul; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Blujdea, Viorel; Grassi, Giacomo
2012-01-01
While the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) focuses on global estimates for the full set of anthropogenic activities, the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector might be the most diverse and most challenging to cover consistently for all countries of the
How Will Climate Change Affect Globalization?
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dilyard, John Raymond; Bals, Lydia; Zhuplev, Anatoly
2011-01-01
, it will effect globalization. Businesses, if they want to be sustained, will have to adjust to climate change. This panel will examine two topics within which the relationship between climate change and globalization can be assessed - the sourcing of resources and services when the location of those resources...... is subject to change and the nature of competition in agriculture-based business, focusing on wine....
Global change impacts on wheat production along an environmental gradient in south Australia.
Reyenga, P J; Howden, S M; Meinke, H; Hall, W B
2001-09-01
Crop production is likely to change in the future as a result of global changes in CO2 levels in the atmosphere and climate. APSIM, a cropping system model, was used to investigate the potential impact of these changes on the distribution of cropping along an environmental transect in south Australia. The effects of several global change scenarios were studied, including: (1) historical climate and CO2 levels, (2) historic climate with elevated CO2 (700 ppm), (3) warmer climate (+2.4 degrees C) +700 ppm CO2, (4) drier climate (-15% summer, -20% winter rainfall) +2.4 degrees C +700 ppm CO2, (5) wetter climate (+10% summer rainfall) +2.4 degrees C +700 ppm CO2 and (6) most likely climate changes (+1.8 degrees C, -8% annual rainfall) +700 ppm CO2. Based on an analysis of the current cropping boundary, a criterion of 1 t/ha was used to assess potential changes in the boundary under global change. Under most scenarios, the cropping boundary moved northwards with a further 240,000 ha potentially being available for cropping. The exception was the reduced rainfall scenario (4), which resulted in a small retreat of cropping from its current extent. However, the impact of this scenario may only be small (in the order of 10,000-20,000 ha reduction in cropping area). Increases in CO2 levels over the current climate record have resulted in small but significant increases in simulated yields. Model limitations are discussed.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. Zscheischler
2017-08-01
Full Text Available Understanding the global carbon (C cycle is of crucial importance to map current and future climate dynamics relative to global environmental change. A full characterization of C cycling requires detailed information on spatiotemporal patterns of surface–atmosphere fluxes. However, relevant C cycle observations are highly variable in their coverage and reporting standards. Especially problematic is the lack of integration of the carbon dioxide (CO2 exchange of the ocean, inland freshwaters and the land surface with the atmosphere. Here we adopt a data-driven approach to synthesize a wide range of observation-based spatially explicit surface–atmosphere CO2 fluxes from 2001 to 2010, to identify the state of today's observational opportunities and data limitations. The considered fluxes include net exchange of open oceans, continental shelves, estuaries, rivers, and lakes, as well as CO2 fluxes related to net ecosystem productivity, fire emissions, loss of tropical aboveground C, harvested wood and crops, as well as fossil fuel and cement emissions. Spatially explicit CO2 fluxes are obtained through geostatistical and/or remote-sensing-based upscaling, thereby minimizing biophysical or biogeochemical assumptions encoded in process-based models. We estimate a bottom-up net C exchange (NCE between the surface (land, ocean, and coastal areas and the atmosphere. Though we provide also global estimates, the primary goal of this study is to identify key uncertainties and observational shortcomings that need to be prioritized in the expansion of in situ observatories. Uncertainties for NCE and its components are derived using resampling. In many regions, our NCE estimates agree well with independent estimates from other sources such as process-based models and atmospheric inversions. This holds for Europe (mean ± 1 SD: 0.8 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1, positive numbers are sources to the atmosphere, Russia (0.1 ± 0.4 PgC yr−1, East Asia
Zscheischler, Jakob; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Avitabile, Valerio; Calle, Leonardo; Carvalhais, Nuno; Ciais, Philippe; Gans, Fabian; Gruber, Nicolas; Hartmann, Jens; Herold, Martin; Ichii, Kazuhito; Jung, Martin; Landschützer, Peter; Laruelle, Goulven G.; Lauerwald, Ronny; Papale, Dario; Peylin, Philippe; Poulter, Benjamin; Ray, Deepak; Regnier, Pierre; Rödenbeck, Christian; Roman-Cuesta, Rosa M.; Schwalm, Christopher; Tramontana, Gianluca; Tyukavina, Alexandra; Valentini, Riccardo; van der Werf, Guido; West, Tristram O.; Wolf, Julie E.; Reichstein, Markus
2017-08-01
Understanding the global carbon (C) cycle is of crucial importance to map current and future climate dynamics relative to global environmental change. A full characterization of C cycling requires detailed information on spatiotemporal patterns of surface-atmosphere fluxes. However, relevant C cycle observations are highly variable in their coverage and reporting standards. Especially problematic is the lack of integration of the carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange of the ocean, inland freshwaters and the land surface with the atmosphere. Here we adopt a data-driven approach to synthesize a wide range of observation-based spatially explicit surface-atmosphere CO2 fluxes from 2001 to 2010, to identify the state of today's observational opportunities and data limitations. The considered fluxes include net exchange of open oceans, continental shelves, estuaries, rivers, and lakes, as well as CO2 fluxes related to net ecosystem productivity, fire emissions, loss of tropical aboveground C, harvested wood and crops, as well as fossil fuel and cement emissions. Spatially explicit CO2 fluxes are obtained through geostatistical and/or remote-sensing-based upscaling, thereby minimizing biophysical or biogeochemical assumptions encoded in process-based models. We estimate a bottom-up net C exchange (NCE) between the surface (land, ocean, and coastal areas) and the atmosphere. Though we provide also global estimates, the primary goal of this study is to identify key uncertainties and observational shortcomings that need to be prioritized in the expansion of in situ observatories. Uncertainties for NCE and its components are derived using resampling. In many regions, our NCE estimates agree well with independent estimates from other sources such as process-based models and atmospheric inversions. This holds for Europe (mean ± 1 SD: 0.8 ± 0.1 PgC yr-1, positive numbers are sources to the atmosphere), Russia (0.1 ± 0.4 PgC yr-1), East Asia (1.6 ± 0.3 PgC yr-1), South Asia (0.3 ± 0
Naik, Vaishali; Horowitz, Larry W.; Fiore, Arlene M.; Ginoux, Paul; Mao, Jingqiu; Aghedo, Adetutu M.; Levy, Hiram
2013-07-01
We describe and evaluate atmospheric chemistry in the newly developed Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory chemistry-climate model (GFDL AM3) and apply it to investigate the net impact of preindustrial (PI) to present (PD) changes in short-lived pollutant emissions (ozone precursors, sulfur dioxide, and carbonaceous aerosols) and methane concentration on atmospheric composition and climate forcing. The inclusion of online troposphere-stratosphere interactions, gas-aerosol chemistry, and aerosol-cloud interactions (including direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects) in AM3 enables a more complete representation of interactions among short-lived species, and thus their net climate impact, than was considered in previous climate assessments. The base AM3 simulation, driven with observed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice cover (SIC) over the period 1981-2007, generally reproduces the observed mean magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonal cycle of tropospheric ozone and carbon monoxide. The global mean aerosol optical depth in our base simulation is within 5% of satellite measurements over the 1982-2006 time period. We conduct a pair of simulations in which only the short-lived pollutant emissions and methane concentrations are changed from PI (1860) to PD (2000) levels (i.e., SST, SIC, greenhouse gases, and ozone-depleting substances are held at PD levels). From the PI to PD, we find that changes in short-lived pollutant emissions and methane have caused the tropospheric ozone burden to increase by 39% and the global burdens of sulfate, black carbon, and organic carbon to increase by factors of 3, 2.4, and 1.4, respectively. Tropospheric hydroxyl concentration decreases by 7%, showing that increases in OH sinks (methane, carbon monoxide, nonmethane volatile organic compounds, and sulfur dioxide) dominate over sources (ozone and nitrogen oxides) in the model. Combined changes in tropospheric ozone and aerosols cause a net negative top-of-the-atmosphere
Global atmospheric carbon budget: results from an ensemble of atmospheric CO2 inversions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
P. Peylin
2013-10-01
Full Text Available Atmospheric CO2 inversions estimate surface carbon fluxes from an optimal fit to atmospheric CO2 measurements, usually including prior constraints on the flux estimates. Eleven sets of carbon flux estimates are compared, generated by different inversions systems that vary in their inversions methods, choice of atmospheric data, transport model and prior information. The inversions were run for at least 5 yr in the period between 1990 and 2010. Mean fluxes for 2001–2004, seasonal cycles, interannual variability and trends are compared for the tropics and northern and southern extra-tropics, and separately for land and ocean. Some continental/basin-scale subdivisions are also considered where the atmospheric network is denser. Four-year mean fluxes are reasonably consistent across inversions at global/latitudinal scale, with a large total (land plus ocean carbon uptake in the north (−3.4 Pg C yr−1 (±0.5 Pg C yr−1 standard deviation, with slightly more uptake over land than over ocean, a significant although more variable source over the tropics (1.6 ± 0.9 Pg C yr−1 and a compensatory sink of similar magnitude in the south (−1.4 ± 0.5 Pg C yr−1 corresponding mainly to an ocean sink. Largest differences across inversions occur in the balance between tropical land sources and southern land sinks. Interannual variability (IAV in carbon fluxes is larger for land than ocean regions (standard deviation around 1.06 versus 0.33 Pg C yr−1 for the 1996–2007 period, with much higher consistency among the inversions for the land. While the tropical land explains most of the IAV (standard deviation ~ 0.65 Pg C yr−1, the northern and southern land also contribute (standard deviation ~ 0.39 Pg C yr−1. Most inversions tend to indicate an increase of the northern land carbon uptake from late 1990s to 2008 (around 0.1 Pg C yr−1, predominantly in North Asia. The mean seasonal cycle appears to be well constrained by the atmospheric data over
Global Energy Transitions and the Challenge of Climate Change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Riahi, K.
2008-01-01
Global emissions of greenhouse-gases have increased markedly as a result of human activities since pre-industrial times. This increase in emissions has lead to unequivocal global warming, which is evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. Reducing the risk of irreversible climate impacts requires thus the mitigation of global GHG emissions aiming at the long-term stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations. Achieving this goal translates into the need of reducing emissions to virtually zero over long time-frames. Yet international agreement on a long-term climate policy target remains a distant prospect, due to both scientific uncertainty and political disagreement on the appropriate balance between mitigation costs and reduced risks of dangerous impacts. At the same time, growing emissions of greenhouse gases continue to increase the amount of climate change we are committed to over the long term. Over the next few decades, these growing emissions may make some potentially desirable long term goals unattainable. Recent analysis conducted at IIASA indicates the need of major energy transitions over the next few decades. For example, staying below the target suggested by the European Union of 2 C warming (with just a 50% likelihood) will require the massive deployment of zero-carbon energy by 2050, and a tippling of the contribution of zero-carbon energy globally to more than 60% by that time. Although there are large uncertainties with respect to the deployment of individual future technologies, there is strong evidence that no single mitigation measure alone would be sufficient for achieving the stabilization of GHG concentrations at low levels. A wide portfolio of technologies across all GHG-intensive sectors is needed for cost-effective emissions reductions. The bulk of these emissions reductions would need to come from the energy sector, with
A new kind of sharing: Why we can't ignore global environmental change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hall, J.D.; Hanson, A.J.
1992-01-01
Aspects of three broad topics are discussed to illustrate the interdependence of Canada and environmental problems in the developing countries: global atmospheric change, forests, and the rights of people (especially indigenous peoples) affected by changes in their natural environment. These concerns are placed, whenever possible, in the wider context of development in general. In an introduction, some of the manifestations of environmental change in the developing world are discussed along with the underlying causes. The science of global warming and ozone depletion is outlined and some impacts that these phenomena may have on the developing world and on Canada are examined. Although the North has been rseponsible for most past emissions of gases implicated in global climate change, industrial growth, deforestation, and other factors are likely to tip the balance toward the South over the next 1-2 decades. The topics of the politics, economics, and policy dimensions of climate change are then introduced. Forests are discussed since they illustrate the relationship of Canada to deforestation; trade in tropical timber and other commodities grown on cleared-forest lands is examined in the context of Canada's own forest industry. Canada's wider involvement in tropical forest issues and conservation concerns are also noted. The human face of environmental degradation is examined for the case studies of El Salvador and Ethiopia, and the increasing involvement of indigenous peoples in environmental management is recognized. 409 refs., 6 figs., 12 tabs
Integrated assessment models of global climate change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.
1997-01-01
The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs
Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jones, Andrew D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Calvin, Katherine V. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Collins, William D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Edmonds, James A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
2015-08-01
We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km² of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and –0.71 nW/m² of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic within each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from –0.06 to –0.29 W/m² by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm–2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.
Meteorological interpretation of transient LOD changes
Masaki, Y.
2008-04-01
The Earth’s spin rate is mainly changed by zonal winds. For example, seasonal changes in global atmospheric circulation and episodic changes accompanied with El Nĩ os are clearly detected n in the Length-of-day (LOD). Sub-global to regional meteorological phenomena can also change the wind field, however, their effects on the LOD are uncertain because such LOD signals are expected to be subtle and transient. In our previous study (Masaki, 2006), we introduced atmospheric pressure gradients in the upper atmosphere in order to obtain a rough picture of the meteorological features that can change the LOD. In this presentation, we compare one-year LOD data with meteorological elements (winds, temperature, pressure, etc.) and make an attempt to link transient LOD changes with sub-global meteorological phenomena.
Information technology and global change science
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Baxter, F.P.
1990-01-01
The goal of this paper is to identify and briefly describe major existing and near term information technologies that cold have a positive impact on the topics being discussed at this conference by helping to manage the data of global change science and helping global change scientists conduct their research. Desktop computer systems have changed dramatically during the past seven years. Faster data processing can be expected in the future through full development of traditional serial computer architectures. Some other proven information technologies may be currently underutilized by global change scientists. Relational database management systems and good organization of data through the use of thoughtful database design would enable the scientific community to better share and maintain quality research data. Custodians of the data should use rigorous data administration to ensure integrity and long term value of the data resource. Still other emerging information technologies that involve the use of artificial intelligence, parallel computer architectures, and new sensors for data collection will be in relatively common use in the near term and should become part of the global science community's technical toolkit. Consideration should also be given to the establishment of Information Analysis Centers to facilitate effective organization and management of interdisciplinary data and the prototype testing and use of advanced information technology to facilitate rapid and cost-effective integration of these tools into global change science. 8 refs.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Doble-Miranda, E.; Bermejo, V.; Retana, J.; Alonso, R.
2012-11-01
Global change is a combination of environmental and biotic alterations that threaten many natural ecosystems and the services they provide. The Project MONTES for competitive, multi-disciplinary research, in which 13 national research centers, including CIEMAT, are participating, was launched for the purpose of directing forest management toward adaptation to occurring changes. It is organized into seven work modules that study the effects of atmospheric and climate changes, land use, fire patterns, the risk that invasive species pose to the maintenance of carbon and water flows and biodiversity, plus an eighth module to coordinate cross disciplinary matters. (Author) 12 refs.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Despres, L; Hossaert-Mckey, M; Martin, J F; Pont, D; Valero, M; Chave, J; Benizri, E; Amiaud, B; Boury-Esnault, N; Fritz, H; Lavelle, P; Martin, F; Poulet, S; Blanchard, F; Cheddadi, R; Dupouey, J L; Hulle, M; Michaux, J; Souissi, S; Bridault, A; Dambrine, E; Gomez, B; Thevenard, F; Legendre, S; Suc, J P; Zeitoun, V; Bezancon, G; Frascaria-Lacoste, N; Ponsard, S; Bourguet, D; Vigne, J D; Doyen, L; Joly, P; Gourlet-Fleury, S; Garnier, E; Lebaron, Ph; Boulinier, Th; Chuine, I; Jiguet, F; Couvet, D; Soussana, J F; Weimerskirsch, H; Grosbois, V; Bretagnolle, V
2006-07-01
Global change is the consequence of the worldwide human print on ecology. The uncontrolled use of fossil fuels, the urbanization, the intensifying of agriculture, the homogenization of life styles and cultures, the homogenization of fauna and vegetation, the commercial trades, the bio-invasions, the over-exploitation of resources and the emergence of new economic powers (China, India, Brazil..) represent an adaptative dynamics of interactions which affects the overall biosphere and the adaptative capacities and the future of all species. Biodiversity is an ecological and societal insurance against the risks and uncertainties linked with global change. The French institute of biodiversity (IFB) has created a working group in charge of a study on global change and biodiversity, in particular in terms of: speed and acceleration of processes, interaction between the different organization levels of the world of living, scale changes, and adaptative capacities. 38 projects with an interdisciplinary approach have been retained by the IFB and the Ministry of ecology and sustainable development. The conclusion of these projects were presented at this restitution colloquium and are summarized in this document. The presentations are organized in 7 sessions dealing with: global changes and adaptation mechanisms; functional responses to global changes; spatial responses to global changes; temporal responses to global changes; selective answers to global changes; available tools and ecological services; scenarios and projections. (J.S.)
Global change during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum
Sluijs, A.
2006-01-01
Proxy data indicate that atmospheric CO2 concentrations expected for the next centuries have not been equaled since the early Paleogene, approximately 66 to 45 Million years (Ma) ago. The early Paleogene global climate appears to have been substantially warmer than that of present day, likely in
Microenvironmental change as a mechanism to study global change.
Lortie, C. J.
2016-12-01
Global change is a set of significant processes that influence all aspects of ecosystem functioning and often-natural services within Santa Barbara County. The sensitivity of coastal and urban systems is certainly very high. However, profound changes are also predicted for arid and semi-arid systems globally, and California is no exception. These dryland systems are less buffered by oceanic processes and typically express high inter-annual variation in precipitation and temperatures in addition to perturbations associated with long-term droughts. However, climate estimates and downscaled values can present challenges in providing evidence at the scale relevant to individual species or individuals, and the importance of biotic interactions must be coupled to these estimates in space and time. Coupled indicators of key micro-environmental measures to both positive and negative interactions between foundation species and other organisms provide a metric of buffering capacity and resilience to global change at fine spatial scales. Consequently, the primary objective of this research project is to provide both the a well-articulated, ecologically relevant micro-environmental big data measure of global change within Santa Barbara County and a coupled estimate of concurrent changes in interactions in key species within the region. Shrubs directly and indirectly buffered local changes in the microenvironment thereby functioning as refuges for other species within arid and semi-arid regions subject to dramatic global change drivers. The following major patterns were identified: (i) shrub micro-environments reduce the level of stress and amplitude of variation associated with temperature and moisture, (ii) many plant and animal species including threatened lizards are relatively more common with shrubs within the region, and (iii) the variation in the interaction patterns between species relates to the extent of amelioration provided by shrub-biodiversity complexes within
A global change policy for Alaska
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cole, H.
1993-01-01
The Alaska Science and Engineering Advisory Committee attempted to formulate a suitable state policy for global climate change. The main elements and rationale for this policy are described, along with lessons learned from the Montreal protocol on global ozone and the policy itself. A discussion of issues relating to public presentation and reaction to a climate change policy indicates that elements necessary for a strategy presenting a case for global change needs to be credible, simple, and unambiguous, with risks clearly defined. Society and business must see themselves as stakeholders in the issue, and policies must be formulated accordingly. The Montreal protocol provides an example of success in advanced planning on a major global issue. The six main components of the Alaskan policy relate to fossil fuel production and marketing, the economic mix of energy production for in-state use, the efficiency and effectiveness of energy end-use services, the impact of climatic change on Alaska as a geographic unit, Alaska as a high-latitude site for climate change monitoring and analysis, and Alaskan participation with other countries in research and policy development. 7 refs
Some coolness concerning global warming
Lindzen, Richard S.
1990-01-01
The greenhouse effect hypothesis is discussed. The effects of increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere on global temperature changes are analyzed. The problems with models currently used to predict climatic changes are examined.
You, Bo; Li, Fang
2016-01-01
This paper is concerned with the long-time behavior of solutions for the three dimensional viscous primitive equations of large-scale moist atmosphere. We prove the existence of a global attractor for the three dimensional viscous primitive equations of large-scale moist atmosphere by asymptotic a priori estimate and construct an exponential attractor by using the smoothing property of the semigroup generated by the three dimensional viscous primitive equations of large-scale moist atmosphere...
Mercury from wildfires: Global emission inventories and sensitivity to 2000-2050 global change
Kumar, Aditya; Wu, Shiliang; Huang, Yaoxian; Liao, Hong; Kaplan, Jed O.
2018-01-01
We estimate the global Hg wildfire emissions for the 2000s and the potential impacts from the 2000-2050 changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions by combining statistical analysis with global data on vegetation type and coverage as well as fire activities. Global Hg wildfire emissions are estimated to be 612 Mg year-1. Africa is the dominant source region (43.8% of global emissions), followed by Eurasia (31%) and South America (16.6%). We find significant perturbations to wildfire emissions of Hg in the context of global change, driven by the projected changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions. 2000-2050 climate change could increase Hg emissions by 14% globally and regionally by 18% for South America, 14% for Africa and 13% for Eurasia. Projected changes in land use by 2050 could decrease the global Hg emissions from wildfires by 13% mainly driven by a decline in African emissions due to significant agricultural land expansion. Future land cover changes could lead to significant increases in Hg emissions over some regions (+32% North America, +14% Africa, +13% Eurasia). Potential enrichment of terrestrial ecosystems in 2050 in response to changes in Hg anthropogenic emissions could increase Hg wildfire emissions globally (+28%) and regionally (+19% North America, +20% South America, +24% Africa, +41% Eurasia). Our results indicate that the future evolution of climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions are all important factors affecting Hg wildfire emissions in the coming decades.
Creed, Irena F; Bergström, Ann-Kristin; Trick, Charles G; Grimm, Nancy B; Hessen, Dag O; Karlsson, Jan; Kidd, Karen A; Kritzberg, Emma; McKnight, Diane M; Freeman, Erika C; Senar, Oscar E; Andersson, Agneta; Ask, Jenny; Berggren, Martin; Cherif, Mehdi; Giesler, Reiner; Hotchkiss, Erin R; Kortelainen, Pirkko; Palta, Monica M; Vrede, Tobias; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A
2018-03-15
Northern ecosystems are experiencing some of the most dramatic impacts of global change on Earth. Rising temperatures, hydrological intensification, changes in atmospheric acid deposition and associated acidification recovery, and changes in vegetative cover are resulting in fundamental changes in terrestrial-aquatic biogeochemical linkages. The effects of global change are readily observed in alterations in the supply of dissolved organic matter (DOM)-the messenger between terrestrial and lake ecosystems-with potentially profound effects on the structure and function of lakes. Northern terrestrial ecosystems contain substantial stores of organic matter and filter or funnel DOM, affecting the timing and magnitude of DOM delivery to surface waters. This terrestrial DOM is processed in streams, rivers, and lakes, ultimately shifting its composition, stoichiometry, and bioavailability. Here, we explore the potential consequences of these global change-driven effects for lake food webs at northern latitudes. Notably, we provide evidence that increased allochthonous DOM supply to lakes is overwhelming increased autochthonous DOM supply that potentially results from earlier ice-out and a longer growing season. Furthermore, we assess the potential implications of this shift for the nutritional quality of autotrophs in terms of their stoichiometry, fatty acid composition, toxin production, and methylmercury concentration, and therefore, contaminant transfer through the food web. We conclude that global change in northern regions leads not only to reduced primary productivity but also to nutritionally poorer lake food webs, with discernible consequences for the trophic web to fish and humans. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Atmosphere composition changes, solar irradiance variations, and changing forest tree growth
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chalupa, V.
1997-01-01
The paper deals with changes in the Earth's atmosphere composition, which greatly influence the growth and health condition of forests. Impacts of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols on future climate changes are assessed. In the past forty years increasing assimilation of CO2 by forests growing in temperature and boreal zones in the Northern Hemisphere was observed. Increasing trends in diameter, height and volume growth of forest trees were found in the Central, Western and Northern Europe. Causes of higher increments are not exactly known, however, the results of present measurements indicate that higher air temperature, nitrogen deposition in forest soils and raising atmospheric CO2 concentration participated in increased growth of forests
Global change and genetic diversity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kremer, Antoine
2000-01-01
Are there grounds for concern as to the impact of global change on the future of European forests? This question is approached from the genetic angle, considering the modifications produced by climate change on the diversity and adaptive potential of forest species. In the absence of experimental data, the answers are derived from a set of arguments based on knowledge of evolutionary mechanisms involved in genetic diversity, the post-glacial history of European forests and lessons drawn from recent introductions of foreign wood species. These arguments entail less pessimistic conclusions than those generally reached for consequences attributed to global change. Even if major changes in composition could occur, past events show that genetic erosion capable of challenging the adaptive potential of species is unlikely. (author)
Future changes in global warming potentials under representative concentration pathways
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Reisinger, Andy [New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, PO Box 10002, Wellington 6143 (New Zealand); Meinshausen, Malte [Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany); Manning, Martin, E-mail: andy.reisinger@nzagrc.org.nz [Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington (New Zealand)
2011-04-15
Global warming potentials (GWPs) are the metrics currently used to compare emissions of different greenhouse gases under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Future changes in greenhouse gas concentrations will alter GWPs because the radiative efficiencies of marginal changes in CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O depend on their background concentrations, the removal of CO{sub 2} is influenced by climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, and atmospheric residence times of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O also depend on ambient temperature and other environmental changes. We calculated the currently foreseeable future changes in the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2}, which acts as the denominator for the calculation of all GWPs, and specifically the GWPs of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O, along four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) up to the year 2100. We find that the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2} decreases under all RCPs, although for longer time horizons this decrease is smaller than for short time horizons due to increased climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. The 100-year GWP of CH{sub 4} would increase up to 20% under the lowest RCP by 2100 but would decrease by up to 10% by mid-century under the highest RCP. The 100-year GWP of N{sub 2}O would increase by more than 30% by 2100 under the highest RCP but would vary by less than 10% under other scenarios. These changes are not negligible but are mostly smaller than the changes that would result from choosing a different time horizon for GWPs, or from choosing altogether different metrics for comparing greenhouse gas emissions, such as global temperature change potentials.
Land-use change and global climate policies; Usage des terres et politiques climatiques globales
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gitz, V
2004-03-15
This PhD thesis assess the role of land-use dynamics and carbon sequestration within climate policies. First, it describes the emergence, from the Rio-1992 to the Marrakech Accords (2001), of diplomatic controversies upon carbon sinks, in the context of the progressive constitution of a scientific basis on terrestrial carbon sinks. It questions the ability of the actual form of international climate regime to generate the appropriate incentives to sequester within the forestry sector in developed countries, or to control tropical deforestation. Second, the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO{sub 2} rise is quantified using a newly designed model of the global carbon cycle and regional land-use (OSCAR). We show that carbon emitted via land-use is not equivalent to fossil carbon emission in respect to atmospheric CO{sub 2} rise. This effect, all the more than land-use emissions are increasing, requires a greater mitigation effort to stabilize atmospheric CO{sub 2}. Finally, optimal timing of mixed climate policies involving fossil emissions mitigation and biological sequestration is assessed within an inter temporal cost-benefit framework. We show that the social value of sequestered carbon depends on anticipating future climate damages. Within optimal control models, this links the timing of sequestration to fossil effort and to the evolution of climate damages; if the latter are uncertain, but might be revealed at a later date, then it might be optimal to reserve part of the limited sequestration potential to cut off an eventual future abatement cost peak, were a climate surprise to finally imply stringent concentration ceilings. (author)
Observed decrease in atmospheric mercury explained by global decline in anthropogenic emissions
Yanxu Zhang,; Daniel J. Jacob,; Hannah M. Horowitz,; Long Chen,; Helen M. Amos,; Krabbenhoft, David P.; Franz Slemr,; Vincent L. St. Louis,; Elsie M. Sunderland,
2015-01-01
Observations of elemental mercury (Hg0) at sites in North America and Europe show large decreases (∼1–2% y−1) from 1990 to present. Observations in background northern hemisphere air, including Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) aircraft flights, show weaker decreases (Asia. Implementation of our inventory in a global 3D atmospheric Hg simulation [GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry)] coupled to land and ocean reservoirs reproduces the observed large-scale trends in atmospheric Hg0 concentrations and in HgII wet deposition. The large trends observed in North America and Europe reflect the phase-out of Hg from commercial products as well as the cobenefit from SO2 and NOx emission controls on coal-fired utilities.
Ci, Zhijia; Zhang, Xiaoshan; Wang, Zhangwei
2012-06-05
The current understanding of the global mercury (Hg) cycle remains uncertain because Hg behavior in the environment is very complicated. The special property of Hg causes the atmosphere to be the most important medium for worldwide dispersion and transformation. The source and fate of atmospheric Hg and its interaction with the surface environment are the essential topics in the global Hg cycle. Recent declining measurement trends of Hg in the atmosphere are in apparent conflict with the increasing trends in global anthropogenic Hg emissions. As the single largest country contributor of anthropogenic Hg emission, China's role in the global Hg cycle will become more and more important in the context of the decreasing man-made Hg emission from developed regions. However, much less Hg information in China is available. As a global pollutant which undergoes long-range transport and is persistence in the environment, increasing Hg knowledge in China could not only promote the Hg regulation in this country but also improve the understanding of the fundamental of the global Hg cycle and further push the abatement of this toxin on a global scale. Then the atmospheric Hg research in China may be a breakthrough for improving the current understanding of the global Hg cycle. However, due to the complex behavior of Hg in the atmosphere, a deeper understanding of the atmospheric Hg cycle in China needs greater cooperation across fields.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Chlorophyll data from NOAA's Global Change Expedition in July-September 1988 was submitted by Dr. D.W. Frazel of RSMAS (University of Miami). The expedition was...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Nutrient data from NOAA'S Global Change Expedition in July-September 1988 was submitted by Dr. Dennis W. Frazel of RSMAS (University of Miami). The expedition was...
Systematic change in global patterns of streamflow following volcanic eruptions.
Iles, Carley E; Hegerl, Gabriele C
2015-11-01
Following large explosive volcanic eruptions precipitation decreases over much of the globe1-6, particularly in climatologically wet regions4,5. Stratospheric volcanic aerosols reflect sunlight, which reduces evaporation, whilst surface cooling stabilises the atmosphere and reduces its water-holding capacity7. Circulation changes modulate this global precipitation reduction on regional scales1,8-10. Despite the importance of rivers to people, it has been unclear whether volcanism causes detectable changes in streamflow given large natural variability. Here we analyse observational records of streamflow volume for fifty large rivers from around the world which cover between two and 6 major volcanic eruptions in the 20 th and late 19 th century. We find statistically significant reductions in flow following eruptions for the Amazon, Congo, Nile, Orange, Ob, Yenisey and Kolyma amongst others. When data from neighbouring rivers are combined - based on the areas where climate models simulate either an increase or a decrease in precipitation following eruptions - a significant (peruptions is detected in northern South American, central African and high-latitude Asian rivers, and on average across wet tropical and subtropical regions. We also detect a significant increase in southern South American and SW North American rivers. This suggests that future volcanic eruptions could substantially affect global water availability.
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and the Global Carbon Cycle: The Key Uncertainties
Peng, T. H.; Post, W. M.; DeAngelis, D. L.; Dale, V. H.; Farrell, M. P.
1987-12-01
The biogeochemical cycling of carbon between its sources and sinks determines the rate of increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations. The observed increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} content is less than the estimated release from fossil fuel consumption and deforestation. This discrepancy can be explained by interactions between the atmosphere and other global carbon reservoirs such as the oceans, and the terrestrial biosphere including soils. Undoubtedly, the oceans have been the most important sinks for CO{sub 2} produced by man. But, the physical, chemical, and biological processes of oceans are complex and, therefore, credible estimates of CO{sub 2} uptake can probably only come from mathematical models. Unfortunately, one- and two-dimensional ocean models do not allow for enough CO{sub 2} uptake to accurately account for known releases. Thus, they produce higher concentrations of atmospheric CO{sub 2} than was historically the case. More complex three-dimensional models, while currently being developed, may make better use of existing tracer data than do one- and two-dimensional models and will also incorporate climate feedback effects to provide a more realistic view of ocean dynamics and CO{sub 2} fluxes. The instability of current models to estimate accurately oceanic uptake of CO{sub 2} creates one of the key uncertainties in predictions of atmospheric CO{sub 2} increases and climate responses over the next 100 to 200 years.
SiB3 Modeled Global 1-degree Hourly Biosphere-Atmosphere Carbon Flux, 1998-2006
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Simple Biosphere Model, Version 3 (SiB3) was used to produce a global data set of hourly carbon fluxes between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere for...
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Posey, Pamela
2002-01-01
The purpose of this Software Test Description (STD) is to establish formal test cases to be used by personnel tasked with the installation and verification of the Globally Relocatable Navy Tide/Atmospheric Modeling System (PCTides...
Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)
1994-05-01
This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.
Integrated risk analysis of global climate change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.
1995-01-01
This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)
Judt, Falko
2017-04-01
A tremendous increase in computing power has facilitated the advent of global convection-resolving numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Although this technological breakthrough allows for the seamless prediction of weather from local to global scales, the predictability of multiscale weather phenomena in these models is not very well known. To address this issue, we conducted a global high-resolution (4-km) predictability experiment using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), a state-of-the-art global NWP model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The goals of this experiment are to investigate error growth from convective to planetary scales and to quantify the intrinsic, scale-dependent predictability limits of atmospheric motions. The globally uniform resolution of 4 km allows for the explicit treatment of organized deep moist convection, alleviating grave limitations of previous predictability studies that either used high-resolution limited-area models or global simulations with coarser grids and cumulus parameterization. Error growth is analyzed within the context of an "identical twin" experiment setup: the error is defined as the difference between a 20-day long "nature run" and a simulation that was perturbed with small-amplitude noise, but is otherwise identical. It is found that in convectively active regions, errors grow by several orders of magnitude within the first 24 h ("super-exponential growth"). The errors then spread to larger scales and begin a phase of exponential growth after 2-3 days when contaminating the baroclinic zones. After 16 days, the globally averaged error saturates—suggesting that the intrinsic limit of atmospheric predictability (in a general sense) is about two weeks, which is in line with earlier estimates. However, error growth rates differ between the tropics and mid-latitudes as well as between the troposphere and stratosphere, highlighting that atmospheric predictability is a complex
Mitigation of global warming through renewable biomass
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dhillon, R.S.; Wuehlisch, George von
2013-01-01
Rising level of atmospheric CO 2 and consequent global warming is evident. Global surface temperature have already increased by 0.8 °C over the 20th century and is projected to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during the twenty-first century. The global warming will continue till atmospheric concentrations of the major greenhouse gases are stabilized. Among them, CO 2 is mainly responsible and is expected to account for about 60% of the warming over the next century. This study reviews advances on causes and consequences of global climate change and its impact on nature and society. Renewable biomass has tremendous potential to mitigate the global warming. Renewable biomass is expected to play a multifunctional role including food production, source of energy and fodder, biodiversity conservation, yield of goods and services to the society as well as mitigation of the impact of climate change. The review highlights the different management and research strategies in forestry, agriculture, agroforestry and grasslands to mitigate the global warming. -- Highlights: ► Rising level of atmospheric CO 2 and consequent global warming is evident. ► CO 2 is mainly responsible for global warming. ► Global temperature is predicted to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during 21st century. ► Renewable biomass has great potential to mitigate the global warming
Global Climate Change as Environmental Megacrisis
Endter-Wada, Joanna; Ingram, Helen
2012-01-01
The authors analyze global climate change utilizing insights from the governance and crisis management literatures that seek to understand the prospects, nature, characteristics and the effects of cataclysmic events. They argue that global climate change is a mega-crisis hiding in plain sight yet there has been no proportionate mega-crisis response. People are still grappling with how to make sense of climate change, how to bridge multiple ways of knowing it, and how to negotiate collective c...
International Business and Global Climate Change
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.
2008-11-15
Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and climate change policy. Embedded in relevant management literature, this book gives a concise treatment of developments in policy and business activity on global, regional and national levels, using examples and systematic data from a large number of international companies. The first part outlines the international climate policy landscape and voluntary initiatives taken by companies, both alone and together with others. The second part examines companies' strategies, covering innovation for climate change, as well as compensation via emissions trading and carbon offsetting. Written by well-known experts in the field, International Business and Global Climate Change illustrates how an environmental topic becomes strategically important in a mainstream sense, affecting corporate decision-making, business processes, products, reputation, advertising, communication, accounting and finance.
International Business and Global Climate Change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.
2008-11-01
Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and climate change policy. Embedded in relevant management literature, this book gives a concise treatment of developments in policy and business activity on global, regional and national levels, using examples and systematic data from a large number of international companies. The first part outlines the international climate policy landscape and voluntary initiatives taken by companies, both alone and together with others. The second part examines companies' strategies, covering innovation for climate change, as well as compensation via emissions trading and carbon offsetting. Written by well-known experts in the field, International Business and Global Climate Change illustrates how an environmental topic becomes strategically important in a mainstream sense, affecting corporate decision-making, business processes, products, reputation, advertising, communication, accounting and finance
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
F. Murguia-Flores
2018-06-01
. In contrast to previous model analyses, but in agreement with recent observational data, MeMo predicted low fluxes in wet tropical regions because of refinements in formulation of the influence of excess soil moisture on methanotrophy. Tundra and mixed forest had the lowest simulated CH4 uptake rates of 176 and 182 mg CH4 m−2 yr−1, respectively, due to their marked seasonality driven by temperature. Global soil uptake of atmospheric CH4 was decreased by 4 % by the effect of nitrogen inputs to the system; however, the direct addition of fertilizers attenuated the flux by 72 % in regions with high agricultural intensity (i.e. China, India and Europe and by 4–10 % in agriculture areas receiving low rates of N input (e.g. South America. Globally, nitrogen inputs reduced soil uptake of atmospheric CH4 by 1.38 Tg yr−1, which is 2–5 times smaller than reported previously. In addition to improved characterization of the contemporary soil sink for atmospheric CH4, MeMo provides an opportunity to quantify more accurately the relative importance of soil methanotrophy in the global CH4 cycle in the past and its capacity to contribute to reduction of atmospheric CH4 levels under future global change scenarios.
Climate and atmospheric research
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kramer, G.; Schumacher, R.
1992-01-01
This issue of the scientific journal of the Humboldt university is dedicated to results of research work carried out to the greatest extent at the meteorological institute in the last two years on the area of climate and atmospheric research. The traditional research areas of the institute are climatology and the dynamics of the atmosphere, in particular the atmospherical boundary layer. Considering the high probability of a global climatic fluctuation due to the anthropogenic change of composition of the atmosphere and other climate-relevant factors imminent in the next century, climatological research today is an important part of global and regional environmental research. From the necessity of determination and evaluation of the effect of climatic fluctuations on nature and society the contours of a new interdisciplinary research area are already visible now. This is suitable as hardly any other area to be the supporting idea of environmental research at universities. The contributions contained in the issue already consider, in addition to results on climate diagnosis, also results on aspects of climate effect research. (orig./KW) [de
Modelling of diurnal cycle under climate change
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Eliseev, A V; Bezmenov, K V; Demchenko, P F; Mokhov, I I; Petoukhov, V K [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics
1996-12-31
The observed diurnal temperature range (DTR) displays remarkable change during last 30 years. Land air DTR generally decreases under global climate warming due to more significant night minimum temperature increase in comparison with day maximum temperature increase. Atmosphere hydrological cycle characteristics change under global warming and possible background aerosol atmosphere content change may cause essential errors in the estimation of DTR tendencies of change under global warming. The result of this study is the investigation of cloudiness effect on the DTR and blackbody radiative emissivity diurnal range. It is shown that in some cases (particularly in cold seasons) it results in opposite change in DTR and BD at doubled CO{sub 2} atmosphere content. The influence of background aerosol is the same as the cloudiness one
Modelling of diurnal cycle under climate change
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Eliseev, A.V.; Bezmenov, K.V.; Demchenko, P.F.; Mokhov, I.I.; Petoukhov, V.K. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics
1995-12-31
The observed diurnal temperature range (DTR) displays remarkable change during last 30 years. Land air DTR generally decreases under global climate warming due to more significant night minimum temperature increase in comparison with day maximum temperature increase. Atmosphere hydrological cycle characteristics change under global warming and possible background aerosol atmosphere content change may cause essential errors in the estimation of DTR tendencies of change under global warming. The result of this study is the investigation of cloudiness effect on the DTR and blackbody radiative emissivity diurnal range. It is shown that in some cases (particularly in cold seasons) it results in opposite change in DTR and BD at doubled CO{sub 2} atmosphere content. The influence of background aerosol is the same as the cloudiness one
Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change
Carter, P.
2014-12-01
This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline
Global climate change: Implications, challenges, and mitigation measures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Majumdar, S.K.
1992-01-01
This book presents a perspective of the potential problem of global climate change induced by human activity. The editors have presented viewpoints of experts (advocates and skeptics) representing the issues of climate change. Possible results from long-term global change discussed in this book include mass migrations of plants and animals; changes in crop yields; flood and drought; and economic, political, and cultural changes. The text contains 20 chapters on the impact of global climate change and 10 chapters on the mitigation of effects and policy development
Explaining international co-authorship in global environmental change research
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jappe, A.
2006-04-15
This paper maps the domain of earth and environmental sciences (EES) and investigates the relationship between cognitive problem structures and internationalisation patterns, drawing on the concepts of systemic versus cumulative global environmental change (GEC) and mutual task dependence in scientific fields. We find that scientific output concentration and internationalisation are significantly higher in the systemic GEC fields of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences and Oceanography than in the cumulative GEC fields Ecology and Water Resources. The relationship is explained by stronger mutual task dependence in systemic GEC fields. In contrast, the portion of co-authorships with developing, emerging and transition countries among all international publications is larger for Water Resources than for the three other fields, consistent with the most pressing needs for STI capacity development in these countries. (orig.)
He, Bian; Yang, Song; Li, Zhenning
2016-05-01
The response of monsoon precipitation to global warming, which is one of the most significant climate change signals at the earth's surface, exhibits very distinct regional features, especially over the South China Sea (SCS) and adjacent regions in boreal summer. To understand the possible atmospheric dynamics in these specific regions under the global warming background, changes in atmospheric heating and their possible influences on Asian summer climate are investigated by both observational diagnosis and numerical simulations. Results indicate that heating in the middle troposphere has intensified in the SCS and western Pacific regions in boreal summer, accompanied by increased precipitation, cloud cover, and lower-tropospheric convergence and decreased sea level pressure. Sensitivity experiments show that middle and upper tropospheric heating causes an east-west feedback pattern between SCS and western Pacific and continental South Asia, which strengthens the South Asian High in the upper troposphere and moist convergence in the lower troposphere, consequently forcing a descending motion and adiabatic warming over continental South Asia. When air-sea interaction is considered, the simulation results are overall more similar to observations, and in particular the bias of precipitation over the Indian Ocean simulated by AGCMs has been reduced. The result highlights the important role of air-sea interaction in understanding the changes in Asian climate.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mendoza, V.M.; Villanueva, E.E.; Garduno, R.; Adem, J. [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Mexico (Mexico)
1995-12-31
General circulation models (GCMs) and energy balance models (EBMs) are the best way to simulate the complex large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the atmosphere. These models have been used to estimate the global warming due to an increase of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. In Japan Ohta with coworkers has developed a physical model based on the conservation of thermal energy applied to pounded shallow water, to compute the change in the water temperature, using the atmospheric warming and the precipitation due to the increase in the atmospheric CO{sub 2} computed by the GISS-GCM. In this work, a method similar to the Ohta`s one is used for computing the change in ground temperature, soil moisture, evaporation, runoff and dryness index in eleven hydrological zones, using in this case the surface air temperature and precipitation due to CO{sub 2} doubling, computed by the GFDLR30-GCM and the version of the Adem thermodynamic climate model (CTM-EBM), which contains the three feedbacks (cryosphere, clouds and water vapor), and does not include water vapor in the CO{sub 2} atmospheric spectral band (12-19{mu})
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mendoza, V M; Villanueva, E E; Garduno, R; Adem, J [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Mexico (Mexico)
1996-12-31
General circulation models (GCMs) and energy balance models (EBMs) are the best way to simulate the complex large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the atmosphere. These models have been used to estimate the global warming due to an increase of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. In Japan Ohta with coworkers has developed a physical model based on the conservation of thermal energy applied to pounded shallow water, to compute the change in the water temperature, using the atmospheric warming and the precipitation due to the increase in the atmospheric CO{sub 2} computed by the GISS-GCM. In this work, a method similar to the Ohta`s one is used for computing the change in ground temperature, soil moisture, evaporation, runoff and dryness index in eleven hydrological zones, using in this case the surface air temperature and precipitation due to CO{sub 2} doubling, computed by the GFDLR30-GCM and the version of the Adem thermodynamic climate model (CTM-EBM), which contains the three feedbacks (cryosphere, clouds and water vapor), and does not include water vapor in the CO{sub 2} atmospheric spectral band (12-19{mu})
Rossabi, Sam; Helmig, Detlev
2018-04-01
Nonmethane hydrocarbons have been used as tracers in research on emissions and atmospheric oxidation chemistry. This research investigates source region mixing ratio trends of the nonmethane hydrocarbons i-butane, n-butane, i-pentane, and n-pentane, and the (i/n) isomeric ratios of these compounds between 2001 and 2015. Data collected at Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations, mandated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in ozone nonattainment areas, and data collected at Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network sites within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration network, and analyzed at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research at the University of Colorado-Boulder, were examined. Among all considered species, linear regression analyses on concentration time series had negative slopes at 81% of sites, indicating predominantly declining butane and pentane atmospheric concentrations. Mostly negative slopes (78% of sites) were found for the (i/n) butane and pentane isomeric ratios, including all six and seven statistically significant (i/n) butane and pentane trends, respectively. Over the 15 year investigation period and averaged over all sites, total relative changes were 30 and 45% for the (i/n) ratios of butanes and pentanes, respectively, with a relative increase in the prominence of the n-isomers. Most likely causes include changing isomeric ratios in gasoline sector emissions, and increasing influence of oil and natural gas industry emissions. Changes in concentrations and isomeric ratios depend on proximity of contributing emission sources to measurement sites.
ENERGI NUKLIR SEBAGAI SOLUSI UNTUK MENGHAMBAT PEMANASAN GLOBAL
Finahari, Ida Nuryatin
2018-01-01
Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the earth surface, atmosphere and oceans.The global warming in recent years has been international issues. The issues come to the surfacebecause global warming has the very big impact to the world and the lives of animal, plant and human,such as world climate change. The main cause of global warming is the combustion of fossil fuel suchas coal, oil and natural gas, that released carbon dioxide and other gases to atmosphere as greenh...
Global climate change and international security
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rice, M.
1991-01-01
On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.
Global Change Effects on Plant-Soil Interactions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dam, Marie
of this dissertation has been to determine how soil food web structure and function is affected when the quantity and quality of plant input is altered under global change. By studying the abundance and composition of soil organisms, particularly those in the rhizosphere, closely associated with living plants, we...... (Paper III). Furthermore, by way of meta-analysis, the role of organisms in global change effects on ecosystem function is modelled (Paper IV). Among CO2, warming and summer drought, CO2 is the factor most consistently impacting soil organisms. CO2 increases abundance of microorganisms and nematodes...... suggest that not only the global change effects on established ecosystems, but also the global change effects on plant community composition as well as land use management may determine the composition and function of soil food webs in the future....
Biodiversity and global change
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Solbrig, Otto Thomas; Emden, H. M. van; Oordt, P. G. W. J. van; Solbrig, Otto T
1992-01-01
The IUBS symposium "Biodiversity and Global Change" held during the 24th General Assembly, 1-6 September, 1991, in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, represented the first attempt to address the issue of bio...
Agricultural Water Use under Global Change
Zhu, T.; Ringler, C.; Rosegrant, M. W.
2008-12-01
Irrigation is by far the single largest user of water in the world and is projected to remain so in the foreseeable future. Globally, irrigated agricultural land comprises less than twenty percent of total cropland but produces about forty percent of the world's food. Increasing world population will require more food and this will lead to more irrigation in many areas. As demands increase and water becomes an increasingly scarce resource, agriculture's competition for water with other economic sectors will be intensified. This water picture is expected to become even more complex as climate change will impose substantial impacts on water availability and demand, in particular for agriculture. To better understand future water demand and supply under global change, including changes in demographic, economic and technological dimensions, the water simulation module of IMPACT, a global water and food projection model developed at the International Food Policy Research Institute, is used to analyze future water demand and supply in agricultural and several non-agricultural sectors using downscaled GCM scenarios, based on water availability simulation done with a recently developed semi-distributed global hydrological model. Risk analysis is conducted to identify countries and regions where future water supply reliability for irrigation is low, and food security may be threatened in the presence of climate change. Gridded shadow values of irrigation water are derived for global cropland based on an optimization framework, and they are used to illustrate potential irrigation development by incorporating gridded water availability and existing global map of irrigation areas.
Problems in global atmospheric chemistry
Crutzen, Paul J.
1993-02-01
The chemistry of the atmosphere is substantially influenced by a wide range of chemical processes which are primarily driven by the action of ultraviolet radiation of wavelengths shorter than 320 nm (UV-B) on ozone and water vapor. This leads to the formation of hydroxyl (OH) radicals which, despite very low tropospheric concentrations, remove most gases that are emitted into the atmosphere by natural and anthropogenic processes. Therefore, although only about 10% of all atmospheric ozone is located in the troposphere, through the formation of OH, it determines the oxidation efficiency of the atmosphere and is, therefore, of the utmost importance for maintaining its chemical composition. Due to a variety of human activities, especially through increasing emissions of CH4, CO, and NOx, the concentrations of tropospheric ozone and hydroxyl are expected to be increasing in polluted and decreasing in clean tropospheric environments. Altogether, this may be leading to an overall decrease in the oxidation efficiency of the atmosphere, contributing to a gradual buildup of several longlived trace gases that are primarily removed by reaction with OH. In the stratosphere, especially due to catalytic reactions of chlorine-containing gases of industrial origin, ozone is being depleted, most drastically noted during the early spring months over Antarctica. Because ozone is the only atmospheric constituent that can significantly absorb solar radiation in the wavelength region 240 - 320 nm, this loss of ozone enhances the penetration of biologically harmful UV-B radiation to the earth's surface with ensuing negative consequences for the biosphere. Several of the aforementioned chemically active trace gases with growing trends in the atmosphere are also efficient greenhouse gases. Together they can exert a warming effect on the earth's climate about equal to that of carbon dioxide.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jeferson Prietsch Machado
2016-01-01
Full Text Available The wind stress is a measure of momentum transfer due to the relative motion between the atmosphere and the ocean. This study aims to investigate the anomalous pattern of atmospheric and oceanic circulations due to 50% increase in the wind stress over the equatorial region and the Southern Ocean. In this paper we use a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity (SPEEDO. The results show that the intensification of equatorial wind stress causes a decrease in sea surface temperature in the tropical region due to increased upwelling and evaporative cooling. On the other hand, the intensification of wind stress over the Southern Ocean induces a regional increase in the air and sea surface temperatures which in turn leads to a reduction in Antarctic sea ice thickness. This occurs in association with changes in the global thermohaline circulation strengthening the rate of Antarctic Bottom Water formation and a weakening of the North Atlantic Deep Water. Moreover, changes in the Southern Hemisphere thermal gradient lead to modified atmospheric and oceanic heat transports reducing the storm tracks and baroclinic activity.
Kim, B. H.; Ha, K. J.
2017-12-01
The strengthening and westward shift of Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) is observed during the recent decades. However, the relative roles of global warming and natural variability on the change in PWC unclearly remain. By conducting numerical atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments using the spatial SST patterns in the global warming and natural modes which are obtained by the multi-variate EOF analysis from three variables including precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), and divergent zonal wind, we indicated that the westward shift and strengthening of PWC are caused by the global warming SST pattern in the global warming mode and the negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation-like SST pattern in the natural mode. The SST distribution of the Pacific Ocean (PO) has more influence on the changes in equatorial zonal circulations and tropical precipitation than that of the Indian Ocean (IO) and Atlantic Ocean (AO). The change in precipitation is also related to the equatorial zonal circulations variation through the upward and downward motions of the circulations. The IO and AO SST anomalies in the global warming mode can affect on the changes in equatorial zonal circulations, but the influence of PO SST disturbs the Indian Walker circulation and Atlantic Walker circulation changes by the IO and AO. The zonal shift of PWC is found to be highly associated with a zonal gradient of SST over the PO through the idealized numerical AGCM experiments and predictions of CMIP5 models.
A New Appraisal of Northern Peatlands and Global Atmospheric Methane Over the Holocene
MacDonald, G. M.; Holmquist, J. R.; Kremenetski, K.; Loisel, J.
2015-12-01
Use of large databases of peat cores to examine linkages between northern peatlands and atmospheric CH4 over the Holocene has been prone to uncertainties regarding 1. comparability of radiocarbon techniques and material dated, 2. appropriate summed probability distributions, 3. spatial representativeness of the sites, particularly in capturing sites south of the subarctic, 4. potential impacts of local lateral peatland expansion versus continental-scale peatland initiation, particularly in the late Holocene, and 5. impacts of changes in the proportion of high methane-producing fens vs Sphagnum bogs. We present a comparison of radiocarbon measurements from conventional counts, atomic mass spectrometry and differing peat materials to demonstrate a general compatibility of the various types of dates. We compare and apply several summed probability distribution methods to minimize any statistical bias in our analysis. We then present our analysis of a new data set of 7571 peatland cores from 4420 sites that extend into the temperate zone. Of these, 3732 cores inform on lateral expansion and 329 dates constrain the timing of fen-bog transition. Based on these data in original and gridded form we show that widespread peat initiation commenced at 16 kcal yr BP and reached a maximum rate at 11-8 kcal yr BP. Most sites began as fens, and peak transition to bogs occurred between 5 and 3 kcal yr BP, with a 1000 year lag between Eurasia and North America. There is no global late Holocene increase in lateral expansion. Based on modeled northern peatland area and ratio of fen/bog sites, CH4 production from northern peatlands increased rapidly from 11 to 9 cal yr BP, followed by slower increase until reaching a maximum at 5 kcal yr BP at 25 Tg per yr. From 4 kcal yr BP to Present, bogs become a dominant feature in the northern peatland landscape and CH4 production decreased to reach modern-day levels at about 20 Tg per yr. Northern peatlands have been a key infleunce on global
Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Aanund Killingtveit
2012-02-01
Full Text Available Currently, hydropower accounts for close to 16% of the world’s total power supply and is the world’s most dominant (86% source of renewable electrical energy. The key resource for hydropower generation is runoff, which is dependent on precipitation. The future global climate is uncertain and thus poses some risk for the hydropower generation sector. The crucial question and challenge then is what will be the impact of climate change on global hydropower generation and what are the resulting regional variations in hydropower generation potential? This paper is a study that aims to evaluate the changes in global hydropower generation resulting from predicted changes in climate. The study uses an ensemble of simulations of regional patterns of changes in runoff, computed from global circulation models (GCM simulations with 12 different models. Based on these runoff changes, hydropower generation is estimated by relating the runoff changes to hydropower generation potential through geographical information system (GIS, based on 2005 hydropower generation. Hydropower data obtained from EIA (energy generation, national sites, FAO (water resources and UNEP were used in the analysis. The countries/states were used as computational units to reduce the complexities of the analysis. The results indicate that there are large variations of changes (increases/decreases in hydropower generation across regions and even within regions. Globally, hydropower generation is predicted to change very little by the year 2050 for the hydropower system in operation today. This change amounts to an increase of less than 1% of the current (2005 generation level although it is necessary to carry out basin level detailed assessment for local impacts which may differ from the country based values. There are many regions where runoff and hydropower generation will increase due to increasing precipitation, but also many regions where there will be a decrease. Based on this
The policy relevance of global environmental change research
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yarnal, Brent
1996-01-01
Many scientists are striving to identify and promote the policy implications of their global change research. Much basic research on global environmental change cannot advance policy directly, but new projects can determine the relevance of their research to decision makers and build policy-relevant products into the work. Similarly, many ongoing projects can alter or add to the present science design to make the research policy relevant. Thus, this paper shows scientists working on global change how to make their research policy relevant. It demonstrates how research on physical global change relates to human dimensions studies and integrated assessments. It also presents an example of how policy relevance can be fit retroactively into a global change project (in this case, SRBEX-the Susquehanna River Basin Experiment) and how that addition can enhance the project's status and science. The paper concludes that policy relevance is desirable from social and scientific perspectives
A vegetation control on seasonal variations in global atmospheric mercury concentrations
Jiskra, Martin; Sonke, Jeroen E.; Obrist, Daniel; Bieser, Johannes; Ebinghaus, Ralf; Myhre, Cathrine Lund; Pfaffhuber, Katrine Aspmo; Wängberg, Ingvar; Kyllönen, Katriina; Worthy, Doug; Martin, Lynwill G.; Labuschagne, Casper; Mkololo, Thumeka; Ramonet, Michel; Magand, Olivier; Dommergue, Aurélien
2018-04-01
Anthropogenic mercury emissions are transported through the atmosphere as gaseous elemental mercury (Hg(0)) before they are deposited to Earth's surface. Strong seasonality in atmospheric Hg(0) concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere has been explained by two factors: anthropogenic Hg(0) emissions are thought to peak in winter due to higher energy consumption, and atmospheric oxidation rates of Hg(0) are faster in summer. Oxidation-driven Hg(0) seasonality should be equally pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere, which is inconsistent with observations of constant year-round Hg(0) levels. Here, we assess the role of Hg(0) uptake by vegetation as an alternative mechanism for driving Hg(0) seasonality. We find that at terrestrial sites in the Northern Hemisphere, Hg(0) co-varies with CO2, which is known to exhibit a minimum in summer when CO2 is assimilated by vegetation. The amplitude of seasonal oscillations in the atmospheric Hg(0) concentration increases with latitude and is larger at inland terrestrial sites than coastal sites. Using satellite data, we find that the photosynthetic activity of vegetation correlates with Hg(0) levels at individual sites and across continents. We suggest that terrestrial vegetation acts as a global Hg(0) pump, which can contribute to seasonal variations of atmospheric Hg(0), and that decreasing Hg(0) levels in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 20 years can be partly attributed to increased terrestrial net primary production.
Alternative legal and institutional approaches to global change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thacher, P.S.
1991-01-01
The processes of global change currently under way cannot be dealt with in isolation. Factors linked to environmental quality such as demographic growth, economic interdependence and indebtedness, sociopolitical changes, and others must be managed collectively. In looking at the problems of global change, a central question before us is: How comprehensive should a legal regime be in a world of considerable uncertainty in which everything is interrelated with everything else, and what we do may, or may not be, have irreversible consequences for future generations. This article focuses on the problem of global warming to provide a model approach to the larger issues of global change. This reduces the scope of global change to a manageable but representative class of the problems at issue. The author suggests an approach to stabilize global climate by the end of the next century. However, even within this relatively narrow context of stabilizing the climate, a comprehensive approach is needed to address all heat-trapping gases - not just CO 2 - to ensure that all human activities generating these gases are managed properly, without causing other problems
GreenNet: A Global Ground-Based Network of Instruments Measuring Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere
Floyd, M.; Grunberg, M.; Wilson, E. L.
2017-12-01
Climate change is the most important crisis of our lifetime. For policy makers to take action to combat the effects of climate change, they will need definitive proof that it is occurring globally. We have developed a low-cost ground instrument - a portable miniaturized laser heterodyne radiometer (mini-LHR) - capable of measuring concentrations of two of the most potent anthropogenic greenhouse gases, CO2 and methane, in columns in the atmosphere. They work by combining sunlight that has undergone absorption by gases with light from a laser. This combined light is detected by a photoreciever and a radio frequency beat signal is produced. From this beat signal, concentrations of these gases throughout the atmospheric column can be determined. A network of mini-LHR instruments in locations around the world will give us the data necessary to significantly reduce uncertainty in greenhouse gas sinks and sources contributing to climate change. Each instrument takes one reading per minute while the sun is up. With a goal to establish up to 500 instrument sites, the estimated total data per day will likely exceed 1GB. Every piece of data must be sorted as it comes in to determine whether it is a good or bad reading. The goal of the citizen science project is to collaborate with citizen scientists enrolled with Zooniverse.org to cycle through our data and help sort it, while also learning about the mini-LHR, greenhouse gases and climate change. This data will be used to construct an algorithm to automatically sort data that relies on statistical analyses of the previously sorted data.
Global Warming: Physics and Facts
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Levi, B.G.; Hafemeister, D.; Scribner, R.
1992-01-01
This report contains papers on: A tutorial on global atmospheric energetics and the greenhouse effect; global climate models: what and how; comparison of general circulation models; climate and the earth's radiation budget; temperature and sea level change; short-term climate variability and predictions; the great ocean conveyor; trace gases in the atmosphere: temporal and spatial trends; the geochemical carbon cycle and the uptake of fossil fuel CO 2 ; forestry and global warming; the physical and policy linkages; policy implications of greenhouse warming; options for lowering US carbon dioxide emissions; options for reducing carbon dioxide emissions; and science and diplomacy: a new partnership to protect the environment
Global Change. Teaching Activities on Global Change for Grades 4-6.
Geological Survey (Dept. of Interior), Reston, VA.
This packet contains a series of teaching guides on global change. The series includes lessons on dendrochronology; land, air, and water; and island living. Included is information such as : laws of straws; where land, air, and water meet; and Earth as home. Each section provides an introductory description of the activity, the purpose of the…
Doblas-Miranda, E.; Alonso, R.; Arnan, X.; Bermejo, V.; Brotons, L.; de las Heras, J.; Estiarte, M.; Hódar, J. A.; Llorens, P.; Lloret, F.; López-Serrano, F. R.; Martínez-Vilalta, J.; Moya, D.; Peñuelas, J.; Pino, J.; Rodrigo, A.; Roura-Pascual, N.; Valladares, F.; Vilà, M.; Zamora, R.; Retana, J.
2017-01-01
Climate change, alteration of atmospheric composition, land abandonment in some areas and land use intensification in others, wildfires and biological invasions threaten forests, shrublands and pastures all over the world. However, the impacts of the combinations between global change factors are not well understood despite its pressing importance. Here we posit that reviewing global change factors combination in an exemplary region can highlight the necessary aspects in order to better understand the challenges we face, warning about the consequences, and showing the challenges ahead of us. The forests, shrublands and pastures of the Mediterranean Basin are an ideal scenario for the study of these combinations due to its spatial and temporal heterogeneity, increasing and diverse human population and the historical legacy of land use transformations. The combination of multiple global change factors in the Basin shows different ecological effects. Some interactions alter the effects of a single factor, as drought enhances or decreases the effects of atmospheric components on plant ecophysiology. Several interactions generate new impacts: drought and land use changes, among others, alter water resources and lead to land degradation, vegetation regeneration decline, and expansion of forest diseases. Finally, different factors can occur alone or simultaneously leading to further increases in the risk of fires and biological invasions. The transitional nature of the Basin between temperate and arid climates involves a risk of irreversible ecosystem change towards more arid states. However, combinations between factors lead to unpredictable ecosystem alteration that goes beyond the particular consequences of drought. Complex global change scenarios should be studied in the Mediterranean and other regions of the world, including interregional studies. Here we show the inherent uncertainty of this complexity, which should be included in any management strategy.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Streck Nereu Augusto
2005-01-01
Full Text Available The amount of carbon dioxide (CO2 of the Earths atmosphere is increasing, which has the potential of increasing greenhouse effect and air temperature in the future. Plants respond to environment CO2 and temperature. Therefore, climate change may affect agriculture. The purpose of this paper was to review the literature about the impact of a possible increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature on crop growth, development, and yield. Increasing CO2 concentration increases crop yield once the substrate for photosynthesis and the gradient of CO2 concentration between atmosphere and leaf increase. C3 plants will benefit more than C4 plants at elevated CO2. However, if global warming will take place, an increase in temperature may offset the benefits of increasing CO2 on crop yield.
Zhu, Wei; Lin, Che-Jen; Wang, Xun; Sommar, Jonas; Fu, Xuewu; Feng, Xinbin
2016-04-01
Reliable quantification of air-surface fluxes of elemental Hg vapor (Hg0) is crucial for understanding mercury (Hg) global biogeochemical cycles. There have been extensive measurements and modeling efforts devoted to estimating the exchange fluxes between the atmosphere and various surfaces (e.g., soil, canopies, water, snow, etc.) in the past three decades. However, large uncertainties remain due to the complexity of Hg0 bidirectional exchange, limitations of flux quantification techniques and challenges in model parameterization. In this study, we provide a critical review on the state of science in the atmosphere-surface exchange of Hg0. Specifically, the advancement of flux quantification techniques, mechanisms in driving the air-surface Hg exchange and modeling efforts are presented. Due to the semi-volatile nature of Hg0 and redox transformation of Hg in environmental media, Hg deposition and evasion are influenced by multiple environmental variables including seasonality, vegetative coverage and its life cycle, temperature, light, moisture, atmospheric turbulence and the presence of reactants (e.g., O3, radicals, etc.). However, the effects of these processes on flux have not been fundamentally and quantitatively determined, which limits the accuracy of flux modeling. We compile an up-to-date global observational flux database and discuss the implication of flux data on the global Hg budget. Mean Hg0 fluxes obtained by micrometeorological measurements do not appear to be significantly greater than the fluxes measured by dynamic flux chamber methods over unpolluted surfaces (p = 0.16, one-tailed, Mann-Whitney U test). The spatiotemporal coverage of existing Hg0 flux measurements is highly heterogeneous with large data gaps existing in multiple continents (Africa, South Asia, Middle East, South America and Australia). The magnitude of the evasion flux is strongly enhanced by human activities, particularly at contaminated sites. Hg0 flux observations in East
Advances of study on atmospheric methane oxidation (consumption) in forest soil
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
WANG Chen-rui; SHI Yi; YANG Xiao-ming; WU Jie; YUE Jin
2003-01-01
Next to CO2, methane (CH4) is the second important contributor to global warming in the atmosphere and global atmospheric CH4 budget depends on both CH4 sources and sinks. Unsaturated soil is known as a unique sink for atmospheric CH4 in terrestrial ecosystem. Many comparison studies proved that forest soil had the biggest capacity of oxidizing atmospheric CH4 in various unsaturated soils. However, up to now, there is not an overall review in the aspect of atmospheric CH4 oxidation (consumption) in forest soil. This paper analyzed advances of studies on the mechanism of atmospheric CH4 oxidation, and related natural factors (Soil physical and chemical characters, temperature and moisture, ambient main greenhouse gases concentrations, tree species, and forest fire) and anthropogenic factors (forest clear-cutting and thinning, fertilization, exogenous aluminum salts and atmospheric deposition, adding biocides, and switch of forest land use) in forest soils. It was believed that CH4 consumption rate by forest soil was limited by diffusion and sensitive to changes in water status and temperature of soil. CH4 oxidation was also particularly sensitive to soil C/N, Ambient CO2, CH4 and N2O concentrations, tree species and forest fire. In most cases, anthropogenic disturbances will decrease atmospheric CH4 oxidation, thus resulting in the elevating of atmospheric CH4. Finally, the author pointed out that our knowledge of atmospheric CH4 oxidation (consumption) in forest soil was insufficient. In order to evaluate the contribution of forest soils to atmospheric CH4 oxidation and the role of forest played in the process of global environmental change, and to forecast the trends of global warming exactly, more researchers need to studies further on CH4 oxidation in various forest soils of different areas.
Development of Global Change Research in Developing Countries
Sierra, Carlos A.; Yepes, Adriana P.
2010-10-01
Ecosystems and Global Change in the Context of the Neotropics; Medellín, Colombia, 19-20 May 2010; Research in most areas of global environmental change is overwhelmingly produced outside developing countries, which are usually consumers rather than producers of the knowledge associated with their natural resources. While there have been important recent advances in understanding the causes of global-¬scale changes and their consequences to the functioning of tropical ecosystems, there is still an important gap in the understanding of these changes at regional and national levels (where important political decisions are usually made). A symposium was held with the aim of surveying the current state of research activities in a small, developing country such as Colombia. It was jointly organized by the Research Center on Ecosystems and Global Change, Carbono and Bosques; the National University of Colombia at Medellín and the Colombian Ministry of the Environment, Housing, and Regional Development. This 2-¬day symposium gathered Colombian and international scientists involved in different areas of global environmental change, tropical ecosystems, and human societies.
Atmospheric pollution: history, science and regulation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jacobson, M.Z. [Stanford University, Stanford, CA (USA). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
2002-07-01
The book provides an introduction to the history and science of major air pollution issues. It begins with an introduction to the history of discovery of chemicals in the atmosphere, and moves on to a discussion of the evolution of the earth's atmosphere. It then discusses five major atmospheric pollution topics: urban outdoor air pollution, indoor air pollution, acid deposition, stratospheric ozone depletion, and global climate change. The book contains numerous student examples and problems and over 200 color illustrations and photographs.
Lawrence, P.
2015-12-01
Since the start of the green revolution global crop yields have increased linearly for most major cereal crops, so that present day global values are around twice those of the 1960s. The increase in crop yields have allowed for large increases in global agricultural production without correspondingly large increases in cropping area. Future projections under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) framework and other assessments result in increases of global crop production of greater than 100% by the year 2050. In order to meet this increased agricultural demand within the available arable land, future production gains need to be understood in terms of the yield changes due to changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and adaptive management such as irrigation and fertilizer application. In addition to the changes in crop yield, future agricultural demand will need to be met through increasing cropping areas into what are currently marginal lands at the cost of existing forests and other natural ecosystems. In this study we assess the utility of the crop model within the Community Land Model (CLM Crop) to provide both historical and future guidance on changes in crop yields under a range of global idealized crop modeling experiments. The idealized experiments follow the experimental design of the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) in which CLM Crop is a participating model. The idealized experiments consist of global crop simulations for Cotton, Maize, Rice, Soy, Sugarcane, and Wheat under various climate, atmospheric CO2 levels, irrigation prescription, and nitrogen fertilizer application. The time periods simulated for the experiments are for the Historical period (1901 - 2005), and for the two Representative Concentration Pathways of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2006 - 2100). Each crop is simulated on all land grid cells globally for each time period with atmospheric forcing that is a combination of: 1. transient climate and CO2; 2. transient climate
January and July global distributions of atmospheric heating for 1986, 1987, and 1988
Schaack, Todd K.; Johnson, Donald R.
1994-01-01
Three-dimensional global distributions of atmospheric heating are estimated for January and July of the 3-year period 1986-88 from the European Center for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) assimilated datasets. Emphasis is placed on the interseasonal and interannual variability of heating both locally and regionally. Large fluctuations in the magnitude of heating and the disposition of maxima/minima in the Tropics occur over the 3-year period. This variability, which is largely in accord with anomalous precipitation expected during the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, appears realistic. In both January and July, interannual differences of 1.0-1.5 K/day in the vertically averaged heating occur over the tropical Pacific. These interannual regional differences are substantial in comparison with maximum monthly averaged heating rates of 2.0-2.5 K/day. In the extratropics, the most prominent interannual variability occurs along the wintertime North Atlantic cyclone track. Vertical profiles of heating from selected regions also reveal large interannual variability. Clearly evident is the modulation of the heating within tropical regions of deep moist convection associated with the evolution of the ENSO cycle. The heating integrated over continental and oceanic basins emphasizes the impact of land and ocean surfaces on atmospheric energy balance and depicts marked interseasonal and interannual large-scale variability.
Implications of global warming on human health
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Singh, R.K.; Syam, P.V.S.
1997-01-01
Due to the build up of green house gases in atmosphere, less heat escapes through the atmosphere promoting global warming. This may result in world wide droughts, sea-level rise inundating islands and coastal countries, cataclysmic hurricanes etc. Human health as a result of these changes, will be affected both physiologically and psychologically. Physiological effects may be more pronounced in cases occurring due to changes in rainfall and temperature patterns, food production amounts, water availability, etc. Psychological impact may be more in cases of catastrophes like floods, hurricanes or famine. In this paper, an attempt has been made to highlight the implications of global warming on human health due to temperature change. Food production changes and ultra-violet radiation effects and cataclysmic disaster effects. (author)
Air pollution, greenhouse gases and climate change: Global and regional perspectives
Ramanathan, V.; Feng, Y.
dimming has altered both the north-south gradients in sea surface temperatures and land-ocean contrast in surface temperatures, which in turn slow down the monsoon circulation and decrease rainfall over the continents. On the other hand, heating by black carbon warms the atmosphere at elevated levels from 2 to 6 km, where most tropical glaciers are located, thus strengthening the effect of GHGs on retreat of snow packs and glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Tibetan glaciers. Globally, the surface cooling effect of ABCs may have masked as much 47% of the global warming by greenhouse gases, with an uncertainty range of 20-80%. This presents a dilemma since efforts to curb air pollution may unmask the ABC cooling effect and enhance the surface warming. Thus efforts to reduce GHGs and air pollution should be done under one common framework. The uncertainties in our understanding of the ABC effects are large, but we are discovering new ways in which human activities are changing the climate and the environment.
Solid State Laser Technology Development for Atmospheric Sensing Applications
Barnes, James C.
1998-01-01
NASA atmospheric scientists are currently planning active remote sensing missions that will enable global monitoring of atmospheric ozone, water vapor, aerosols and clouds as well as global wind velocity. The measurements of these elements and parameters are important because of the effects they have on climate change, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, atmospheric transport and, in general, the health of the planet. NASA will make use of Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) and backscatter lidar techniques for active remote sensing of molecular constituents and atmospheric phenomena from advanced high-altitude aircraft and space platforms. This paper provides an overview of NASA Langley Research Center's (LaRC's) development of advanced solid state lasers, harmonic generators, and wave mixing techniques aimed at providing the broad range of wavelengths necessary to meet measurement goals of NASA's Earth Science Enterprise.
Shen, Huizhong; Huang, Ye; Wang, Rong; Zhu, Dan; Li, Wei; Shen, Guofeng; Wang, Bin; Zhang, Yanyan; Chen, Yuanchen; Lu, Yan; Chen, Han; Li, Tongchao; Sun, Kang; Li, Bengang; Liu, Wenxin
2013-01-01
Global atmospheric emissions of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from 69 major sources were estimated for a period from 1960 to 2030. Regression models and a technology split method were used to estimate country and time specific emission factors, resulting in a new estimate of PAH emission factor variation among different countries and over time. PAH emissions in 2007 were spatially resolved to 0.1°× 0.1° grids based on a newly developed global high-resolution fuel combustion inven...
Hallock, Pamela
2005-04-01
Human activities are impacting coral reefs physically, biologically, and chemically. Nutrification, sedimentation, chemical pollution, and overfishing are significant local threats that are occurring worldwide. Ozone depletion and global warming are triggering mass coral-bleaching events; corals under temperature stress lose the ability to synthesize protective sunscreens and become more sensitive to sunlight. Photo-oxidative stress also reduces fitness, rendering reef-building organisms more susceptible to emerging diseases. Increasing concentration of atmospheric CO 2 has already reduced CaCO 3 saturation in surface waters by more than 10%. Doubling of atmospheric CO 2 concentration over pre-industrial concentration in the 21st century may reduce carbonate production in tropical shallow marine environments by as much as 80%. As shallow-water reefs decline worldwide, opportunities abound for researchers to expand understanding of carbonate depositional systems. Coordinated studies of carbonate geochemistry with photozoan physiology and calcification, particularly in cool subtropical-transition zones between photozoan-reef and heterotrophic carbonate-ramp communities, will contribute to understanding of carbonate sedimentation under environmental change, both in the future and in the geologic record. Cyanobacteria are becoming increasingly prominent on declining reefs, as these microbes can tolerate strong solar radiation, higher temperatures, and abundant nutrients. The responses of reef-dwelling cyanobacteria to environmental parameters associated with global change are prime topics for further research, with both ecological and geological implications.
Global Warming, New Climate, New Atmospheric Circulation and New Water Cycle in North Africa
Karrouk, M. S.
2017-12-01
Global warming has now reached the energetic phase of H2O's return to the ground after the saturation of the atmosphere in evaporation since the 80s and 90s of the last century, which were characterized by severe droughts, mainly in Africa.This phase is the result of the accumulation of thermal energy exchanges in the Earth-Ocean-Atmosphere system that resulted in the thrust reversal of the energy balance toward the poles. This situation is characterized by a new thermal distribution: above the ocean, the situation is more in surplus compared to the mainland, or even opposite when the balance is negative on the land, and in the atmosphere, warm thermal advection easily reach the North Pole (planetary crests), as well as cold advection push deep into North Africa and the Gulf of Mexico (planetary valleys: Polar Vortex).This "New Ground Energy Balance" establishes a "New Meridian Atmospheric Circulation (MAC)" with an undulating character throughout the year, including the winter characterized by intense latitudinal very active energy exchanges between the surplus areas (tropical) and the deficit (polar) on the one hand, and the atmosphere, the ocean and the continent on the other.The excess radiation balance increases the potential evaporation of the atmosphere and provides a new geographical distribution of Moisture and Water worldwide: the excess water vapor is easily converted by cold advection (Polar Vortex) to heavy rains that cause floods or snow storms that paralyze the normal functioning of human activities, which creates many difficulties for users and leaves damage and casualties, but ensures water availability missing since a long time in many parts of the world, in Africa, Europe and America.The new thermal distribution reorganizes the geography of atmospheric pressure: the ocean energy concentration is transmitted directly to the atmosphere, and the excess torque is pushed northward. The Azores anticyclone is strengthened and is a global lock by the
The physics of global climate change: challenges for research
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Artaxo, Paulo [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Inst. de Fisica. Dept. de Fisica Aplicada
2009-07-01
Full text: There are major issues in our scientific understanding of the functioning of our planet Earth. The growing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, changing in surface albedo, changes in distribution and lifetime of clouds, alteration in aerosol properties and distribution, are all key issues in the radiation balance that controls the climate of our planet. Earth is a non linear highly complex system. Since the industrial revolution, concentration of greenhouse gases, in particular carbon dioxide and methane have increase by 30 to 100%. The fraction of infrared radiation trapped in the atmosphere has increased by about 1.6 watts/m{sup 2}. This additional energy has increased the average temperature by 0.79 degrees centigrade, with certain regions. But, we know very little of the physics, chemistry and biology that controls emissions, sinks and effects in Earth climate. Every week new important scientific findings are published in this area, and models that could predict the future of Earth climate are quite primitive and lack key issues. The hard science of global change is closely associated with socio-economic issues. Humanity have taken the main control role on Earth climate, and the potential for an average increase in temperature of 3 to 5 degrees is large, although there are tentative to limit the average temperature growth to 2 degrees. But even with this ambitious target, Amazonia and the Arctic will probably be much hotter than 3-4 degrees, with important feedbacks in the climate system. The talk will deal with these issues and new research that is needed to increase our knowledge on how the climate of our planet works and which climate we could have in the next decades. (author)
Global climate change and California
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Knox, J.B.; Scheuring, A.F.
1991-01-01
In the fall of 1988 the University of California organized a new public-service initiative on global climate change in response to inquiries and requests from members of Congress and the Department of Energy (DOE). This new systemwide initiative involved all of the University of California campuses and the University's three national laboratories at Berkeley, Los Alamos, and Livermore. The goal of this Greenhouse Initiative was to focus the multidisciplinary resources of the UC campuses and the team-oriented research capabilities of the laboratories on the prospect of global warming and its associated effects on the planet and its nations. In consultation with the DOE, the organizers proposed a series of workshops to focus University of California research resources on the issue of global warming, to contribute to the congressionally mandated DOE studies on options for the US to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 20% by the year 2000, and to begin building a long-term research base contributing to an improved understanding of global change in all of its complexity and diverse discipline implications. This volume contains papers from the first of these workshops. Individual papers are processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases
A joint global carbon inversion system using both CO2 and 13CO2 atmospheric concentration data
Chen, Jing M.; Mo, Gang; Deng, Feng
2017-03-01
Observations of 13CO2 at 73 sites compiled in the GLOBALVIEW database are used for an additional constraint in a global atmospheric inversion of the surface CO2 flux using CO2 observations at 210 sites (62 collocated with 13CO2 sites) for the 2002-2004 period for 39 land regions and 11 ocean regions. This constraint is implemented using prior CO2 fluxes estimated with a terrestrial ecosystem model and an ocean model. These models simulate 13CO2 discrimination rates of terrestrial photosynthesis and ocean-atmosphere diffusion processes. In both models, the 13CO2 disequilibrium between fluxes to and from the atmosphere is considered due to the historical change in atmospheric 13CO2 concentration. This joint inversion system using both13CO2 and CO2 observations is effectively a double deconvolution system with consideration of the spatial variations of isotopic discrimination and disequilibrium. Compared to the CO2-only inversion, this 13CO2 constraint on the inversion considerably reduces the total land carbon sink from 3.40 ± 0.84 to 2.53 ± 0.93 Pg C year-1 but increases the total oceanic carbon sink from 1.48 ± 0.40 to 2.36 ± 0.49 Pg C year-1. This constraint also changes the spatial distribution of the carbon sink. The largest sink increase occurs in the Amazon, while the largest source increases are in southern Africa, and Asia, where CO2 data are sparse. Through a case study, in which the spatial distribution of the annual 13CO2 discrimination rate over land is ignored by treating it as a constant at the global average of -14. 1 ‰, the spatial distribution of the inverted CO2 flux over land was found to be significantly modified (up to 15 % for some regions). The uncertainties in our disequilibrium flux estimation are 8.0 and 12.7 Pg C year-1 ‰ for land and ocean, respectively. These uncertainties induced the unpredictability of 0.47 and 0.54 Pg C year-1 in the inverted CO2 fluxes for land and ocean, respectively. Our joint inversion system is therefore
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fellous, J.L.; Gautier, C.; Andre, J.C.; Balstad, R.; Boucher, O.; Brasseur, G.; Chahine, M.T.; Chanin, M.L.; Ciais, P.; Corell, W.; Duplessy, J.C.; Hourcade, J.C.; Jouzel, J.; Kaufman, Y.J.; Laval, K.; Le Treut, H.; Minster, J.F.; Moore, B. III; Morel, P.; Rasool, S.I.; Remy, F.; Smith, R.C.; Somerville, R.C.J.; Wood, E.F.; Wood, H.; Wunsch, C.
2007-01-01
Climatic change is gaining ground and with no doubt is stimulated by human activities. It is therefore urgent to better understand its nature, importance and potential impacts. The chapters of this book have been written by US and French experts of the global warming question. After a description of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, GIEC in French) consensus, they present the past and present researches on each of the main component of the climate system, on the question of climatic change impacts and on the possible answers. The conclusion summarizes the results of each chapter. Content: presentation of the IPCC; greenhouse effect, radiation balance and clouds; atmospheric aerosols and climatic change; global water cycle and climate; influence of climatic change on the continental hydrologic cycle; ocean and climate; ice and climate; global carbon cycle; about some impacts of climatic change on Europe and the Atlantic Ocean; interaction between atmospheric chemistry and climate; climate and society, the human dimension. (J.S.)
Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming
Sun, X.; Xia, Y.; Yan, Y.; Feng, W.; Huang, F.; Yang, X. Q.
2017-12-01
By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO2 concentration, ENSO characteristics are compared pre- and post- global warming. The main results are as follows. Due to global warming, the maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western Pacific (La Niña-like background warming) and the tropical eastern Pacific (El Niño-like background warming) for observations and model, respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the tropical Pacific. The La Niña-like background warming induces intense surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On the contrary, the El Niño-like background warming causes westerly winds in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling eastward. Under the La Niña-like background warming, ENSO tends to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called "Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO)". However, the so-called "Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO)" is likely formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Niño-like background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, and especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El Niño-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly applies to extreme El Niño events, which is caused by earlier outbreak of the westerly wind bursts, shallower climatological thermocline depth and weaker "discharge" rate of the ENSO warm signal in response to global warming. Results from both observations and the model also show that
Clean coal technologies and global climate change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Long, R.S.
1993-01-01
The role for Clean Coal Technologies is discussed in the context of the global climate change debate. Global climate change is, of course as the name implies, a global issue. This clearly distinguishes this issue from acid rain or ozone non-attainment, which are regional in nature. Therefore, the issue requires a global perspective, one that looks at the issue not just from a US policy standpoint but from an international policy view. This includes the positions of other individual nations, trading blocks, common interest groups, and the evolving United Nations bureaucracy. It is assumed that as the global economy continues to grow, energy demand will also grow. With growth in economic activity and energy use, will come growth in worldwide greenhouse gas emissions, including growth in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Much of this growth will occur in developing economies which intend to fuel their growth with coal-fired power, especially China and India. Two basic premises which set out the boundaries of this topic are presented. First, there is the premise that global climate change is occurring, or is about to occur, and that governments must do something to mitigate the causes of climate change. Although this premise is highly rebuttable, and not based on scientific certainty, political science has driven it to the forefront of the debate. Second is the premise that advanced combustion CCTs, with their higher efficiencies, will result in lower CO 2 emissions, and hence lessen any contribution of greater coal use to potential global climate change. This promise is demonstrably true. This discussion focuses on recent and emerging public sector policy actions, which may in large part establish a new framework in which the private sector will find new challenges and new opportunities
Freytag, B.; Liljegren, S.; Höfner, S.
2017-04-01
Context. Observations of asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars with increasing spatial resolution reveal new layers of complexity of atmospheric processes on a variety of scales. Aims: To analyze the physical mechanisms that cause asymmetries and surface structures in observed images, we use detailed 3D dynamical simulations of AGB stars; these simulations self-consistently describe convection and pulsations. Methods: We used the CO5BOLD radiation-hydrodynamics code to produce an exploratory grid of global "star-in-a-box" models of the outer convective envelope and the inner atmosphere of AGB stars to study convection, pulsations, and shock waves and their dependence on stellar and numerical parameters. Results: The model dynamics are governed by the interaction of long-lasting giant convection cells, short-lived surface granules, and strong, radial, fundamental-mode pulsations. Radial pulsations and shorter wavelength, traveling, acoustic waves induce shocks on various scales in the atmosphere. Convection, waves, and shocks all contribute to the dynamical pressure and, thus, to an increase of the stellar radius and to a levitation of material into layers where dust can form. Consequently, the resulting relation of pulsation period and stellar radius is shifted toward larger radii compared to that of non-linear 1D models. The dependence of pulsation period on luminosity agrees well with observed relations. The interaction of the pulsation mode with the non-stationary convective flow causes occasional amplitude changes and phase shifts. The regularity of the pulsations decreases with decreasing gravity as the relative size of convection cells increases. The model stars do not have a well-defined surface. Instead, the light is emitted from a very extended inhomogeneous atmosphere with a complex dynamic pattern of high-contrast features. Conclusions: Our models self-consistently describe convection, convectively generated acoustic noise, fundamental-mode radial
Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parson, E A
2008-01-01
Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.
Michael Keller; Maria Assunção Silva-Dias; Daniel C. Nepstad; Meinrat O. Andreae
2004-01-01
The Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) is a multi-disciplinary, multinational scientific project led by Brazil. LBA researchers seek to understand Amazonia in its global context especially with regard to regional and global climate. Current development activities in Amazonia including deforestation, logging, cattle ranching, and agriculture...
Data management and global change research: Technology and infrastructure
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Morrissey, W.A.
1993-01-01
There is a consensus among many scientists who would perform global change research that global-scale scientific data management programs and enabling policies need to be developed and implemented concomitantly with, if not in advance of, global change research programs. They are hopeful that US Federal government policies for scientific and technical data and information management will provide timely archival, analysis, and dissemination of global change research data and will enable them to share that data with colleagues, internationally. Federal data managers believe that data management technology and infrastructure requirements for global change research programs can be met through existing or planned enhancements to systems in operation used for scientific data gathering, processing, and dissemination. Scientists are concerned, however, that because of the scope and diversity of global change research programs entirely new systems and approaches to data management may need to be devised
Houweling, S; Dentener, F; Lelieveld, J
2000-01-01
Previous attempts to quantify the global source strength of CH4 from natural wetlands have resulted in a range of 90-260 TE(CH4) yr(-1). This relatively uncertain estimate significantly limits our understanding of atmospheric methane. In this study we reduce this uncertainty by simulating
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Feng, Daolun; Liu, Ying; Gao, Yi; Zhou, Jinxing; Zheng, Lirong; Qiao, Gang; Ma, Liming; Lin, Zhifen; Grathwohl, Peter
2017-01-01
Atmospheric deposition leads to accumulation of atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) on urban surfaces and topsoils. To capture the inherent variability of atmospheric deposition of PAHs in Shanghai's urban agglomeration, 85 atmospheric bulk deposition samples and 7 surface soil samples were collected from seven sampling locations during 2012–2014. Total fluxes of 17 PAHs were 587-32,300 ng m −2 day −1 , with a geometric mean of 2600 ng m −2 day −1 . The deposition fluxes were categorized as moderate to high on a global scale. Phenanthrene, fluoranthene and pyrene were major contributors. The spatial distribution of deposition fluxes revealed the influence of urbanization/industrialization and the relevance of local emissions. Meteorological conditions and more heating demand in cold season lead to a significant increase of deposition rates. Atmospheric deposition is the principal pathway of PAHs input to topsoils and the annual deposition load in Shanghai amounts to ∼4.5 tons (0.7 kg km −2 ) with a range of 2.5–10 tons (0.4–1.6 kg km −2 ). - Highlights: • PAH deposition flux in Shanghai is categorized as moderate to high on global scale. • Their spatial distribution reveals the influence of urbanization/industrialization. • Atmospheric deposition is the principal pathway of PAHs input to local topsoils. • Other pathways have to be considered for PAH input in urban soil. - Atmospheric deposition of PAHs revealed the influence of urbanization and industrialization and the relevance of local emissions on Shanghai topsoils.
Slovic, Anne Dorothée; de Oliveira, Maria Aparecida; Biehl, João; Ribeiro, Helena
2016-02-01
Tackling climate change at the global level is central to a growing field of scientific research on topics such as environmental health, disease burden, and its resulting economic impacts. At the local level, cities constitute an important hub of atmospheric pollution due to the large amount of pollutants that they emit. As the world population shifts to urban centers, cities will increasingly concentrate more exposed populations. Yet, there is still significant progress to be made in understanding the contribution of urban pollutants other than CO2, such as vehicle emissions, to global climate change. It is therefore particularly important to study how local governments are managing urban air pollution. This paper presents an overview of local air pollution control policies and programs that aim to reduce air pollution levels in megacities. It also presents evidence measuring their efficacy. The paper argues that local air pollution policies are not only beneficial for cities but are also important for mitigating and adapting to global climate change. The results systematize several policy approaches used around the world and suggest the need for more in-depth cross-city studies with the potential to highlight best practices both locally and globally. Finally, it calls for the inclusion of a more human rights-based approach as a mean of guaranteeing of clean air for all and reducing factors that exacerbate climate change.
Impacts of Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling on Southern Hemisphere Climate Change
Li, Feng; Newman, Paul; Pawson, Steven
2013-01-01
Climate in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) has undergone significant changes in recent decades. These changes are closely linked to the shift of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) towards its positive polarity, which is driven primarily by Antarctic ozone depletion. There is growing evidence that Antarctic ozone depletion has significant impacts on Southern Ocean circulation change. However, it is poorly understood whether and how ocean feedback might impact the SAM and climate change in the SH atmosphere. This outstanding science question is investigated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry Climate Model(GEOS-AOCCM).We perform ensemble simulations of the recent past (1960-2010) with and without the interactive ocean. For simulations without the interactive ocean, we use sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations produced by the interactive ocean simulations. The differences between these two ensemble simulations quantify the effects of atmosphere-ocean coupling. We will investigate the impacts of atmosphere-ocean coupling on stratospheric processes such as Antarctic ozone depletion and Antarctic polar vortex breakup. We will address whether ocean feedback affects Rossby wave generation in the troposphere and wave propagation into the stratosphere. Another focuson this study is to assess how ocean feedback might affect the tropospheric SAM response to Antarctic ozone depletion
Ju, W.; Chen, J.; Liu, R.; Liu, Y.
2013-12-01
The process-based Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) model was employed in conjunction with spatially distributed leaf area index (LAI), land cover, soil, and climate data to simulate the carbon budget of global terrestrial ecosystems during the period from 1981 to 2008. The BEPS model was first calibrated and validated using gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) measured in different ecosystems across the word. Then, four global simulations were conducted at daily time steps and a spatial resolution of 8 km to quantify the global terrestrial carbon budget and to identify the relative contributions of changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and LAI to the global terrestrial carbon sink. The long term LAI data used to drive the model was generated through fusing Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and historical Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data pixel by pixel. The meteorological fields were interpolated from the 0.5° global daily meteorological dataset produced by the land surface hydrological research group at Princeton University. The results show that the BEPS model was able to simulate carbon fluxes in different ecosystems. Simulated GPP, NPP, and NEP values and their temporal trends exhibited distinguishable spatial patterns. During the period from 1981 to 2008, global terrestrial ecosystems acted as a carbon sink. The averaged global totals of GPP NPP, and NEP were 122.70 Pg C yr-1, 56.89 Pg C yr-1, and 2.76 Pg C yr-1, respectively. The global totals of GPP and NPP increased greatly, at rates of 0.43 Pg C yr-2 (R2=0.728) and 0.26 Pg C yr-2 (R2=0.709), respectively. Global total NEP did not show an apparent increasing trend (R2= 0.036), averaged 2.26 Pg C yr-1, 3.21 Pg C yr-1, and 2.72 Pg C yr-1 for the periods from 1981 to 1989, from 1990 to 1999, and from 2000 to 2008, respectively. The magnitude and temporal trend of global
Progress in observations and simulations of global change in the upper atmosphere
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Qian, L.; Laštovička, Jan; Roble, R. G.; Solomon, S.C.
2011-01-01
Roč. 116, - (2011), A00H03/1-A00H03/16 ISSN 0148-0227 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP209/10/1792 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Long-term trends * upper atmosphere * ionosphere Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.021, year: 2011 http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2010JA016317.shtml
Atmospheric modelling and prediction at time scales from days to seasons
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Landman, WA
2010-09-01
Full Text Available to seasonal forecasts, and produce multi-decadal climate change projections. This paper focuses on the shorter time-range from days to seasons. The conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) is an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM) that can operate...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Newman, J. E.
1982-09-01
The researchable areas addressed relate to the possible impacts of climate change on agricultural growing seasons and crop adaptation responses on a global basis. The research activities proposed are divided into the following two main areas of investigation: anticipated climate change impacts on the physical environmental characteristics of the agricultural growing seasons and, the most probable food crop responses to the possible changes in atmospheric CO/sub 2/ levels in plant environments. The main physical environmental impacts considered are the changes in temperature, or more directly, thermal energy levels and the growing season evapotranspiration-precipitation balances. The resulting food crop, commercial forest and rangeland species response impacts addressed relate to potential geographical shifts in agricultural growing seasons as determined by the length in days of the frost free period, thermal energy changes and water balance changes. In addition, the interaction of possible changes in plant water use efficiencies during the growing season in relationship to changing atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentrations, is also considered under the scenario of global warming due to increases in atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentration. These proposed research investigations are followed by adaptive response evaluations.
Global transport and localized layering of metallic ions in the upper atmospherer
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
L. N. Carter
1999-02-01
Full Text Available A numerical model has been developed which is capable of simulating all phases of the life cycle of metallic ions, and results are described and interpreted herein for the typical case of Fe+ ions. This cycle begins with the initial deposition of metallics through meteor ablation and sputtering, followed by conversion of neutral Fe atoms to ions through photoionization and charge exchange with ambient ions. Global transport arising from daytime electric fields and poleward/ downward di.usion along geomagnetic field lines, localized transport and layer formation through de- scending convergent nulls in the thermospheric wind field, and finally annihilation by chemical neutralization and compound formation are treated. The model thus sheds new light on the interdependencies of the physical and chemical processes a.ecting atmospheric metallics. Model output analysis confirms the dominant role of both global and local transport to the ion's life cycle, showing that upward forcing from the equatorial electric field is critical to global movement, and that diurnal and semidiurnal tidal winds are responsible for the forma- tion of dense ion layers in the 90±250 km height region. It is demonstrated that the assumed combination of sources, chemical sinks, and transport mechanisms actually produces F-region densities and E-region layer densities similar to those observed. The model also shows that zonal and meridional winds and electric fields each play distinct roles in local transport, whereas the ion distribution is relatively insensitive to reasonable variations in meteoric deposition and chemical reaction rates.Key words. Ionosphere (ion chemistry and composition; ionosphere-atmosphere interactions.
Future changes in atmospheric condition for the baiu under RCP scenarios
Okada, Y.; Takemi, T.; Ishikawa, H.
2015-12-01
This study focuses on atmospheric circulation fields during the baiu in Japan with global warming projection experimental data conducted using a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model (MRI-AGCM3.2) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. This model also used 4 different sea surface temperature (SST) initial conditions. Support of this dataset is provided by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). The baiu front indicated by the north-south gradient of moist static energy moves northward in present-day climate, whereas this northward shift in future climate simulations is very slow during May and June. In future late baiu season, the baiu front stays in the northern part of Japan even in August. As a result, the rich water vapor is transported around western Japan and the daily precipitation amount will increase in August. This northward shift of baiu front is associated with the westward expansion of the enhanced the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) into Japan region. However, the convective activity around northwest Pacific Ocean is inactive and is unlikely to occur convective jump (CJ). These models show that the weak trough exists in upper troposphere around Japan. Therefore, the cold advection stays in the northern part of Japan during June. In July, the front due to the strengthening of the NPSH moves northward, and then it stays until August. This feature is often found between the clustered SSTs, Cluster 2 and 3. The mean field of future August also show the inflow of rich water vapor content to Japan islands. In this model, the extreme rainfall suggested tends to almost increase over the Japan islands during future summer. This work was conducted under the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology-Japan (MEXT).
Global climate change: an unequivocal reality; Cambio climatico global: una realidad inequivoca
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Raynal-Villasenor, J.A. [Universidad de las Americas, Puebla, Puebla (Mexico)]. E-mail: josea.raynal@udlap.mx
2011-10-15
During several years, a long discussion has taken place over the reality of global climate change phenomenon and, if there is one, what could be its cause. Once the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC, 2007) - IPCC is part the United Nations Organization (UN) - was published, it was stated that there is a developing global climatic change and that the cause is unequivocally related with the human activity in the planet Earth. In this paper, relevant information is given about the development of global climatic change issues and some actions are mentioned that each human being of this planet can implement to mitigate it, since it has been accepted that it's impossible to stop it. [Spanish] Durante varios anos se ha discutido si existe un cambio climatico global y, si lo hay, cual es su causa. Una vez publicado el 4o. Reporte de Valoracion del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climatico (IPCC, 2007) - el IPCC es parte de la Organizacion de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) - se preciso que hay un cambio climatico global en desarrollo y la causa inequivoca que lo esta produciendo es la actividad humana en el planeta Tierra, tambien se hablo en el IPCC de las causas naturales por las cuales el planeta se esta calentando. En el presente articulo, se da informacion relevante al cambio climatico global en desarrollo y se mencionan algunas acciones que cada ser humano de este planeta puede implementar para mitigarlo, ya que es imposible detenerlo.
ENSO events are induced by the Global Atmosphere Oscillation
Serykh, Ilya; Byshev, Vladimir; Neiman, Victor; Romanov, Juri
2014-05-01
The large-scale anomalies in the planetary fields of the principal hydro-meteorological characteristics were found to appear prior the beginning and during the main phase of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean. The anomalies were interpreted as manifestation of the interannual Global Atmosphere Oscillation (GAO) in dynamics of the modern climatic system. The key feature of the GAO baric structure is a large-scale positive anomaly in tropical area (30N-30S, 50W-170E) surrounded by negative anomaly bending its outer boundaries. Eventually, such reconstruction of the atmospheric pressure field over tropical zone as a consequence of the GAO leads to Walker circulation cell reversal which is immediately followed by the next El Niño process starting. Spatio-temporal structure of the anomalous hydro-meteorological fields developing under impact of the GAO was analyzed using the monthly-mean atmospheric pressure data at sea level (HadSLP2) and near-surface temperature (CRUTEM4) prepared by GB Met Office Hadley Centre for period of 1948-2012, also we used wind data from US NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the same period. Due to the presence of feed-forwards and feedbacks in the climate dynamics, the large-scale anomalies of characteristics appearing after the GAO cause their back effect on the system of interaction of the ocean-atmosphere-land. This is the secondary impact which can be implemented either by direct exchange of properties between the adjacent areas (this is seen most explicitly in the Indo-Pacific Region), or owing to teleconnections between the concrete climatic subsystems in different parts of the Earth. It is apparently that the secondary, or indirect, GAO impact spreading through the system of general atmospheric circulation has a certain phase shift in different areas, which depends first on the distance from the respective climatic anomalies, in particular, from the most intensive of them, appearing in the equatorial
Soil fungal community responses to global changes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Haugwitz, Merian Skouw
Global change will affect the functioning and structure of terrestrial ecosystems and since soil fungi are key players in organic matter decomposition and nutrient turnover, shifts in fungal community composition might have a strong impact on soil functioning. The main focus of this thesis...... was therefore to investigate the impact of global environmental changes on soil fungal communities in a temperate and subartic heath ecosystem. The objective was further to determine global change effects on major functional groups of fungi and analyze the influence of fungal community changes on soil carbon...... and nutrient availability and storage. By combining molecular methods such as 454 pyrosequencing and quantitative PCR of fungal ITS amplicons with analyses of soil enzymes, nutrient pools of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus we were able to characterize soil fungal communities as well as their impact on nutrient...
Monson, R. K.; Heald, C. L.; Guenther, A. B.; Wilkinson, M.
2009-12-01
Isoprene emissions from plants to the atmosphere are sensitive to changes in temperature, light and atmospheric CO2 concentration in both the short- (seconds-to-minutes) and long-term (hours-to-months). We now understand that the different time constants for these responses are due to controls by different sets of biochemical and physiological processes n leaves. Progress has been made in the past few years toward converting this process-level understanding into quantitative models. In this talk, we consider this progress with special emphasis on the short- and long-term responses to atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature. A new biochemically-based model is presented for describing the CO2 responses, and the model is deployed in a global context to predict interactions between the influences of temperature and CO2 on the global isoprene emission rate. The model is based on the theory of enzyme-substrate kinetics, particularly with regard to those reactions that produce puruvate or glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate, the two chloroplastic substrates for isoprene biosynthesis. In the global model, when we accounted for CO2 inhibition of isoprene emission in the long-term response, we observed little impact on present-day global isoprene emission (increase from 508 to 523 Tg C yr-1). However, the large increases in future isoprene emissions predicted from past models which are due to a projected warmer climate, were entirely offset by including the CO2 effects. The isoprene emission response to CO2 was dominated by the long-term growth environment effect, with modulations of 10% or less from the short-term effect. We use this analysis as a framework for grounding future global models of isoprene emission in biochemical and physiological observations.
Open access: changing global science publishing.
Gasparyan, Armen Yuri; Ayvazyan, Lilit; Kitas, George D
2013-08-01
The article reflects on open access as a strategy of changing the quality of science communication globally. Successful examples of open-access journals are presented to highlight implications of archiving in open digital repositories for the quality and citability of research output. Advantages and downsides of gold, green, and hybrid models of open access operating in diverse scientific environments are described. It is assumed that open access is a global trend which influences the workflow in scholarly journals, changing their quality, credibility, and indexability.
Human-experienced temperature changes exceed global average climate changes for all income groups
Hsiang, S. M.; Parshall, L.
2009-12-01
Global climate change alters local climates everywhere. Many climate change impacts, such as those affecting health, agriculture and labor productivity, depend on these local climatic changes, not global mean change. Traditional, spatially averaged climate change estimates are strongly influenced by the response of icecaps and oceans, providing limited information on human-experienced climatic changes. If used improperly by decision-makers, these estimates distort estimated costs of climate change. We overlay the IPCC’s 20 GCM simulations on the global population distribution to estimate local climatic changes experienced by the world population in the 21st century. The A1B scenario leads to a well-known rise in global average surface temperature of +2.0°C between the periods 2011-2030 and 2080-2099. Projected on the global population distribution in 2000, the median human will experience an annual average rise of +2.3°C (4.1°F) and the average human will experience a rise of +2.4°C (4.3°F). Less than 1% of the population will experience changes smaller than +1.0°C (1.8°F), while 25% and 10% of the population will experience changes greater than +2.9°C (5.2°F) and +3.5°C (6.2°F) respectively. 67% of the world population experiences temperature changes greater than the area-weighted average change of +2.0°C (3.6°F). Using two approaches to characterize the spatial distribution of income, we show that the wealthiest, middle and poorest thirds of the global population experience similar changes, with no group dominating the global average. Calculations for precipitation indicate that there is little change in average precipitation, but redistributions of precipitation occur in all income groups. These results suggest that economists and policy-makers using spatially averaged estimates of climate change to approximate local changes will systematically and significantly underestimate the impacts of climate change on the 21st century population. Top: The
Isoprene emission response to drought and the impact on global atmospheric chemistry
Jiang, Xiaoyan; Guenther, Alex; Potosnak, Mark; Geron, Chris; Seco, Roger; Karl, Thomas; Kim, Saewung; Gu, Lianhong; Pallardy, Stephen
2018-06-01
Biogenic isoprene emissions play a very important role in atmospheric chemistry. These emissions are strongly dependent on various environmental conditions, such as temperature, solar radiation, plant water stress, ambient ozone and CO2 concentrations, and soil moisture. Current biogenic emission models (i.e., Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature, MEGAN) can simulate emission responses to some of the major driving variables, such as short-term variations in temperature and solar radiation, but the other factors are either missing or poorly represented. In this paper, we propose a new modelling approach that considers the physiological effects of drought stress on plant photosynthesis and isoprene emissions for use in the MEGAN3 biogenic emission model. We test the MEGAN3 approach by integrating the algorithm into the existing MEGAN2.1 biogenic emission model framework embedded into the global Community Land Model of the Community Earth System Model (CLM4.5/CESM1.2). Single-point simulations are compared against available field measurements at the Missouri Ozarks AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) field site. The modelling results show that the MEGAN3 approach of using of a photosynthesis parameter (Vcmax) and soil wetness factor (βt) to determine the drought activity factor leads to better simulated isoprene emissions in non-drought and drought periods. The global simulation with the MEGAN3 approach predicts a 17% reduction in global annual isoprene emissions, in comparison to the value predicted using the default CLM4.5/MEGAN2.1 without any drought effect. This reduction leads to changes in surface ozone and oxidants in the areas where the reduction of isoprene emissions is observed. Based on the results presented in this study, we conclude that it is important to simulate the drought-induced response of biogenic isoprene emission accurately in the coupled Earth System model.
Vollmer, Martin K.; Miller, Benjamin R.; Rigby, Matthew; Reimann, Stefan; Mühle, Jens; Krummel, Paul B.; O'Doherty, Simon; Kim, Jooil; Rhee, Tae Siek; Weiss, Ray F.; Fraser, Paul J.; Simmonds, Peter G.; Salameh, Peter K.; Harth, Christina M.; Wang, Ray H. J.; Steele, L. Paul; Young, Dickon; Lunder, Chris R.; Hermansen, Ove; Ivy, Diane; Arnold, Tim; Schmidbauer, Norbert; Kim, Kyung-Ryul; Greally, Brian R.; Hill, Matthias; Leist, Michael; Wenger, Angelina; Prinn, Ronald G.
2011-04-01
We report on ground-based atmospheric measurements and emission estimates of the four anthropogenic hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) HFC-365mfc (CH3CF2CH2CF3, 1,1,1,3,3-pentafluorobutane), HFC-245fa (CHF2CH2CF3, 1,1,1,3,3-pentafluoropropane), HFC-227ea (CF3CHFCF3, 1,1,1,2,3,3,3-heptafluoropropane), and HFC-236fa (CF3CH2CF3, 1,1,1,3,3,3-hexafluoropropane). In situ measurements are from the global monitoring sites of the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE), the System for Observations of Halogenated Greenhouse Gases in Europe (SOGE), and Gosan (South Korea). We include the first halocarbon flask sample measurements from the Antarctic research stations King Sejong and Troll. We also present measurements of archived air samples from both hemispheres back to the 1970s. We use a two-dimensional atmospheric transport model to simulate global atmospheric abundances and to estimate global emissions. HFC-365mfc and HFC-245fa first appeared in the atmosphere only ˜1 decade ago; they have grown rapidly to globally averaged dry air mole fractions of 0.53 ppt (in parts per trillion, 10-12) and 1.1 ppt, respectively, by the end of 2010. In contrast, HFC-227ea first appeared in the global atmosphere in the 1980s and has since grown to ˜0.58 ppt. We report the first measurements of HFC-236fa in the atmosphere. This long-lived compound was present in the atmosphere at only 0.074 ppt in 2010. All four substances exhibit yearly growth rates of >8% yr-1 at the end of 2010. We find rapidly increasing emissions for the foam-blowing compounds HFC-365mfc and HFC-245fa starting in ˜2002. After peaking in 2006 (HFC-365mfc: 3.2 kt yr-1, HFC-245fa: 6.5 kt yr-1), emissions began to decline. Our results for these two compounds suggest that recent estimates from long-term projections (to the late 21st century) have strongly overestimated emissions for the early years of the projections (˜2005-2010). Global HFC-227ea and HFC-236fa emissions have grown to average values of 2.4 kt yr-1
Radiations in space and global environment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oguti, Takasi
1994-01-01
It has been well known that the global environment of the earth is basically determined by the radiation equilibrium of the earth atmosphere system embedded in the solar radiation. However, the surface temperature of about 15 degC on average is much higher than that determined by the radiation equilibrium. This is due to the so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere such as carbon dioxide, water vapor, methane and others. Also the global environment has evolved by interacting with the living things on the earth, for example, tree oxygen by photosynthesis, and a small amount of ozone protecting living things from the fetal damage due to solar ultraviolet radiation. The solar radiation of short wavelength, that is, ultraviolet to X-ray influences atmospheric constituents, and the thermal structure and dynamics of the atmosphere through chemical reaction. The solar energetic particles produced by solar flares precipitate in the polar regions, and the nitric oxides are produced by auroral X-ray. Auroral activities accelerate particles in the magnetosphere. All these radiations cause significant global changes. Human activities increase greenhouse gases rapidly and cause global warming, and atmospheric chloro-fluoro-carbon (CFC) makes the ozone hole. Now, human activities must be modified to match the natural cycle of materials. (K.I.)
Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide and its consequences
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lockwood, J G
1982-09-16
The effects of increasing CO/sub 2/ concentrations in the atmosphere are estimated using general circulation models (GCMs), which have the ability to portray many of the nonlinear feedback processes which serve to regulate atmospheric (and hence climatic) changes. GCMs predict that a doubling of atmospheric CO/sub 2/ would result in a 2-3 k increase of globally averaged surface air temperature. The largest warming will occur in the winter in high latitudes. Detection studies are now being directed towards isolating those parts of observed climate fluctuations that are attributable to increasing atmospheric CO/sub 2/. (KRM)
Historical Land-Cover Change and Land-Use Conversions Global Dataset
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A set of three estimates of land-cover types and annual transformations of land use are provided on a global 0.5 x0.5 degree lat/lon grid at annual time steps. The...
Global warming and climate forcing by recent albedo changes on Mars
Fenton, L.K.; Geissler, P.E.; Haberle, R.M.
2007-01-01
For hundreds of years, scientists have tracked the changing appearance of Mars, first by hand drawings and later by photographs. Because of this historical record, many classical albedo patterns have long been known to shift in appearance over time. Decadal variations of the martian surface albedo are generally attributed to removal and deposition of small amounts of relatively bright dust on the surface. Large swaths of the surface (up to 56 million km2) have been observed to darken or brighten by 10 per cent or more. It is unknown, however, how these albedo changes affect wind circulation, dust transport and the feedback between these processes and the martian climate. Here we present predictions from a Mars general circulation model, indicating that the observed interannual albedo alterations strongly influence the martian environment. Results indicate enhanced wind stress in recently darkened areas and decreased wind stress in brightened areas, producing a positive feedback system in which the albedo changes strengthen the winds that generate the changes. The simulations also predict a net annual global warming of surface air temperatures by ???0.65 K, enhancing dust lifting by increasing the likelihood of dust devil generation. The increase in global dust lifting by both wind stress and dust devils may affect the mechanisms that trigger large dust storm initiation, a poorly understood phenomenon, unique to Mars. In addition, predicted increases in summertime air temperatures at high southern latitudes would contribute to the rapid and steady scarp retreat that has been observed in the south polar residual ice for the past four Mars years. Our results suggest that documented albedo changes affect recent climate change and large-scale weather patterns on Mars, and thus albedo variations are a necessary component of future atmospheric and climate studies. ??2007 Nature Publishing Group.
PERSPECTIVE: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security
Cassman, Kenneth G.
2007-03-01
source: faostat.fao.org/site/395/default.aspx. Given this situation, the question of whether global climate change will have a net positive, negative, or negligible impact on crop yields takes on a larger significance because additional hundreds of millions of people could be at risk of hunger and the window of opportunity for mounting an effective response is closing. To answer this question, Lobell and Field use an innovative empirical/geostatistical approach to estimate the impact of increased temperature since 1980 on crop yields—a period when global mean temperature increased ~0.4 °C [2]. For three major crops—maize, wheat, and barley—there was a significant negative response to increased temperature. For all six crops evaluated (also including rice, soybean, and sorghum), the net impact of climate trends on yield since 1980 was negative. While the approach used by Lobell and Field can be questioned on several pointsNote2, the body of their work represents an ambitious global assessment of recent climate impact on crop yields. Most noteworthy is their conclusion that: the combined effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate trends have largely cancelled each other over the past two decades. They contrast their finding with the conclusion of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that CO2 benefits will exceed temperature-related yield reductions up to a 2 °C increase in mean temperature [3]. It should be noted, however, that the IPCC is coming out with a new assessment to be released in April 2007 (www.ipcc.ch/), and it remains to be seen if this conclusion still holds. The purpose here is not to support or challenge the conclusions of either Lobell and Field or the IPCC, but rather to highlight the fact that there are substantive differences between results obtained from geostatistical assessments based on recent climate trends and actual crop yields versus assessments based on results from controlled experiments in growth
Global climate change impacts on forests and markets
Xiaohui Tian; Brent Sohngen; John B Kim; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole
2016-01-01
This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, theMC2model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
2012-07-01
From the preface: The Norwegian Global Change (GC) Committee is appointed by the Research Council and works to strengthen the association of Norwegian researchers and research to the international GC programs and IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis). As part of this effort, the Committee wanted a survey of Norwegian research activities linked to these programs. CICERO was engaged to carry out survey work in dialogue with the Research and GC Committee. The results of the survey are presented in this report. The GC programs are: World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), International geosphere-biosphere program (IGBP), International program of biodiversity science (DIVERSITAS), International Human Dimension Programme Wed Global Environmental Change (IHDP). In addition to IIASA. The results of the survey will be, and is, used as a basis for further activities of the Committee in terms of incentives that can increase the internationalization of Norwegian research. Furthermore, it help to ensure good coupling to these programs in their transition to a common platform in the international Future Earth Initiative (http://www.icsu.org/future-earth).(eb)
Zadorozhny, Alexander; Dyominov, Igor
It is well known that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere produce a global warming of the troposphere and a global cooling of the stratosphere. The expected stratospheric cooling essentially influences the ozone layer via increased polar stratospheric cloud formation and via temperature dependences of the gas phase reaction rates. One more mechanism of how greenhouse gases influences the ozone layer is enhanced water evaporation from the oceans into the atmosphere because of increasing temperatures of the ocean surface due to greenhouse effect. The subject of this paper is a study of the influence of anthropogenic pollution of the atmosphere by the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, N2O and ozone-depleting chlorine and bromine compounds on the expected long-term changes of the ozone layer with taking into account an increase of water vapour content in the atmosphere due to greenhouse effect. The study based on 2-D zonally averaged interactive dynamical radiative-photochemical model of the troposphere and stratosphere. The model allows to self-consistently calculating diabatic circulation, temperature, gaseous composition of the troposphere and stratosphere at latitudes from the South to North Poles, as well as distribution of sulphate aerosol particles and polar stratospheric clouds of two types. It was supposed in the model that an increase of the ocean surface temperature caused by greenhouse effect is similar to calculated increase of atmospheric surface temperature. Evaporation rate from the ocean surface was computed in dependence of latitude. The model time-dependent runs were made for the period from 1975 to 2100 using two IPCC scenarios depicting maximum and average expected increases of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The model calculations show that anthropogenic increasing of water vapour abundance in the atmosphere due to heating of the ocean surface caused by greenhouse effect gives a sensible contribution to the expected ozone
Hansen, Kaj M.; Christensen, Jesper H.; Brandt, Jørgen
2015-01-01
Mercury (Hg) is a global pollutant with adverse health effects on humans and wildlife. It is of special concern in the Arctic due to accumulation in the food web and exposure of the Arctic population through a rich marine diet. Climate change may alter the exposure of the Arctic population to Hg. We have investigated the effect of climate change on the atmospheric Hg transport to and deposition within the Arctic by making a sensitivity study of how the atmospheric chemistry-transport model Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) reacts to climate change forcing. The total deposition of Hg to the Arctic is 18% lower in the 2090s compared to the 1990s under the applied Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A1B) climate scenario. Asia is the major anthropogenic source area (25% of the deposition to the Arctic) followed by Europe (6%) and North America (5%), with the rest arising from the background concentration, and this is independent of the climate. DEHM predicts between a 6% increase (Status Quo scenario) and a 37% decrease (zero anthropogenic emissions scenario) in Hg deposition to the Arctic depending on the applied emission scenario, while the combined effect of future climate and emission changes results in up to 47% lower Hg deposition. PMID:26378551
E.J. Spee (Edwin); P.M. de Zeeuw (Paul); J.G. Verwer (Jan); J.G. Blom (Joke); W. Hundsdorfer (Willem)
1996-01-01
textabstractAtmospheric air quality modeling relies in part on numerical simulation. Required numerical simulations are often hampered by lack of computer capacity and computational speed. This problem is most severe in the field of global modeling where transport and exchange of trace constituents
Glushkov, Alexander; Glushkov, Alexander; Loboda, Nataliya; Khokhlov, Valery; Serbov, Nikoly; Svinarenko, Andrey
.12 mol/m3. the maximum amplitude of season oscillations (40° -50° n.l.) is 0.07 mol/m3. A link between global cycle of carbon dioxide and global climate change is investigated. Refrences: Glushkov A.V., Khokhlov V.N., Prepelitsa G.P., Tsenenko I.A., Optics of atmosphere and ocean.-2004.-Vol.14,N7.-p.219-223; Glushkov A.V., Loboda N.S., Khokhlov V.N., Atmospheric Research (Elseiver).-2005.-Vol.77.-P.100-113;Glushkov A.V., Loboda N.S., Khokhlov V.N., Lovett L. Journal of Hydrology (Elseiver).-2006.-Vol. 322. N1-4.-P.14-24; Glushkov A.V., Khokhlov V.N., Loboda N.S., Quart.J.Royal Meteorol. Soc.-2006.-Vol.132.- pp.447-465; Glushkov A.V., Khokhlov V.N., Loboda N.S., Ponomarenko E.L., Environm. Inf. Arch.-2003.-Vol.1.-P.125-130.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Brasseur, G.; Tie, X.; Walters, S.
1999-03-01
The authors have used several global chemical/transport models (1) to study the contribution of various physical, chemical, and dynamical processes to the budget of mid-latitude ozone in the stratosphere and troposphere; (2) to analyze the potential mechanisms which are responsible for the observed ozone perturbations at mid-latitudes of the lower stratosphere and in the upper troposphere; (3) to calculate potential changes in atmospheric ozone response to anthropogenic changes (e.g., emission of industrially manufactured CFCs, CO, and NO{sub x}) and to natural perturbations (e.g., volcanic eruptions and biomass burning); and (4) to estimate the impact of these changes on the radiative forcing to the climate system and on the level of UV-B radiation at the surface.
The Ecological consequences of global climate change
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Woodward, F. I
1992-01-01
... & land use - modeling potential responses of vegetation to global climate change - effects of climatic change on population dynamics of crop pests - responses of soils to climate change - predicting...
Global scene layout modulates contextual learning in change detection
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Markus eConci
2014-02-01
Full Text Available Change in the visual scene often goes unnoticed – a phenomenon referred to as ‘change blindness’. This study examined whether the hierarchical structure, i.e., the global-local layout of a scene can influence performance in a one-shot change detection paradigm. To this end, natural scenes of a laid breakfast table were presented, and observers were asked to locate the onset of a new local object. Importantly, the global structure of the scene was manipulated by varying the relations among objects in the scene layouts. The very same items were either presented as global-congruent (typical layouts or as global-incongruent (random arrangements. Change blindness was less severe for congruent than for incongruent displays, and this congruency benefit increased with the duration of the experiment. These findings show that global layouts are learned, supporting detection of local changes with enhanced efficiency. However, performance was not affected by scene congruency in a subsequent control experiment that required observers to localize a static discontinuity (i.e., an object that was missing from the repeated layouts. Our results thus show that learning of the global layout is particularly linked to the local objects. Taken together, our results reveal an effect of global precedence in natural scenes. We suggest that relational properties within the hierarchy of a natural scene are governed, in particular, by global image analysis, reducing change blindness for local objects through scene learning.
Global scene layout modulates contextual learning in change detection.
Conci, Markus; Müller, Hermann J
2014-01-01
Change in the visual scene often goes unnoticed - a phenomenon referred to as "change blindness." This study examined whether the hierarchical structure, i.e., the global-local layout of a scene can influence performance in a one-shot change detection paradigm. To this end, natural scenes of a laid breakfast table were presented, and observers were asked to locate the onset of a new local object. Importantly, the global structure of the scene was manipulated by varying the relations among objects in the scene layouts. The very same items were either presented as global-congruent (typical) layouts or as global-incongruent (random) arrangements. Change blindness was less severe for congruent than for incongruent displays, and this congruency benefit increased with the duration of the experiment. These findings show that global layouts are learned, supporting detection of local changes with enhanced efficiency. However, performance was not affected by scene congruency in a subsequent control experiment that required observers to localize a static discontinuity (i.e., an object that was missing from the repeated layouts). Our results thus show that learning of the global layout is particularly linked to the local objects. Taken together, our results reveal an effect of "global precedence" in natural scenes. We suggest that relational properties within the hierarchy of a natural scene are governed, in particular, by global image analysis, reducing change blindness for local objects through scene learning.
Terrestrial Ecosystem Responses to Global Change: A Research Strategy
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ecosystems Working Group,
1998-09-23
Uncertainty about the magnitude of global change effects on terrestrial ecosystems and consequent feedbacks to the atmosphere impedes sound policy planning at regional, national, and global scales. A strategy to reduce these uncertainties must include a substantial increase in funding for large-scale ecosystem experiments and a careful prioritization of research efforts. Prioritization criteria should be based on the magnitude of potential changes in environmental properties of concern to society, including productivity; biodiversity; the storage and cycling of carbon, water, and nutrients; and sensitivity of specific ecosystems to environmental change. A research strategy is proposed that builds on existing knowledge of ecosystem responses to global change by (1) expanding the spatial and temporal scale of experimental ecosystem manipulations to include processes known to occur at large scales and over long time periods; (2) quantifying poorly understood linkages among processes through the use of experiments that manipulate multiple interacting environmental factors over a broader range of relevant conditions than did past experiments; and (3) prioritizing ecosystems for major experimental manipulations on the basis of potential positive and negative impacts on ecosystem properties and processes of intrinsic and/or utilitarian value to humans and on feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere. Models and experiments are equally important for developing process-level understanding into a predictive capability. To support both the development and testing of mechanistic ecosystem models, a two-tiered design of ecosystem experiments should be used. This design should include both (1) large-scale manipulative experiments for comprehensive testing of integrated ecosystem models and (2) multifactor, multilevel experiments for parameterization of process models across the critical range of interacting environmental factors (CO{sub 2}, temperature, water
Multi-model global assessment of subseasonal prediction skill of atmospheric rivers
Deflorio, M. J.
2017-12-01
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are global phenomena that are characterized by long, narrow plumes of water vapor transport. They are most often observed in the midlatitudes near climatologically active storm track regions. Because of their frequent association with floods, landslides, and other hydrological impacts on society, there is significant incentive at the intersection of academic research, water management, and policymaking to understand the skill with which state-of-the-art operational weather models can predict ARs weeks-to-months in advance. We use the newly assembled Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) database, which includes extensive hindcast records of eleven operational weather models, to assess global prediction skill of atmospheric rivers on S2S timescales. We develop a metric to assess AR skill that is suitable for S2S timescales by counting the total number of AR days which occur over each model and observational grid cell during a 2-week time window. This "2-week AR occurrence" metric is suitable for S2S prediction skill assessment because it does not consider discrete hourly or daily AR objects, but rather a smoothed representation of AR occurrence over a longer period of time. Our results indicate that several of the S2S models, especially the ECMWF model, show useful prediction skill in the 2-week forecast window, with significant interannual variation in some regions. We also present results from an experimental forecast of S2S AR prediction skill using the ECMWF and NCEP models.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Allison, M.; Travis, L.D.
1986-10-01
A conference on the atmosphere of Jupiter produced papers in the areas of thermal and ortho-para hydrogen structure, clouds and chemistry, atmospheric structure, global dynamics, synoptic features and processes, atmospheric dynamics, and future spaceflight opportunities. A session on the atmospheres of Uranus and Neptune was included, and the atmosphere of Saturn was discussed in several papers
Problem free nuclear power and global change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Teller, E.; Wood, L.; Nuckolls, J.; Ishikawa, M.; Hyde, R.
1997-01-01
Nuclear fission power reactors represent a solution-in-principle to all aspects of global change possibly induced by inputting of either particulate or carbon or sulfur oxides into the Earth's atmosphere. Of proven technological feasibility, they presently produce high- grade heat for electricity generation, space heating and industrial process-driving around the world, without emitting greenhouse gases or atmospheric particulates. However, a substantial number of major issues currently stand between nuclear power implemented with light- water reactors and widespread substitution for large stationary fossil fuel-fired systems, including long-term fuel supply, adverse public perceptions regarding both long-term and acute operational safety, plant decommissioning, fuel reprocessing, radwaste disposal, fissile materials diversion to military purposes and - perhaps more seriously - cost. We describe a GW-scale, high-temperature nuclear reactor heat source that can operate with no human intervention for a few decades and that may be widely acceptable, since its safety features are simple, inexpensive and easily understood. We provide first-level details of a reactor system designed to satisfy these requirements. Such a back-solving approach to realizing large-scale nuclear fission power systems potentially leads to an energy source capable of meeting all large-scale stationary demands for high- temperature heat. If widely employed to support such demands, it could, for example, directly reduce present-day world-wide CO 2 emissions by two-fold; by using it to produce non-carbonaceous fuels for small mobile demands, a second two-fold reduction could be attained. Even the first such reduction would permit continued slow power-demand growth in the First World and rapid development of the Third World, both without any governmental suppression of fossil fuel usage
Myths and realities of global climate change
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bruce, J.P.
1991-01-01
Greenhouse gases in the environment are increasing, resulting in global warming. This paper discusses three misconceptions about global warming. The three topics are the level of consensus among world scientists about global warming, how 'costly' remedies for global warming will be, and will growth in developing countries offset any changes made in developed countries. Possibilities for Canadian leadership on this critical issue are discussed. 1 fig.
Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Final report
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Crowley, T.J.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)
1994-05-01
The purpose of the project was to conduct model simulations for past and future climate change with respect to the proposed Yucca Mtn. repository. The authors report on three main topics, one of which is boundary conditions for paleo-hindcast studies. These conditions are necessary for the conduction of three to four model simulations. The boundary conditions have been prepared for future runs. The second topic is (a) comparing the atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) with observations and other GCMs; and (b) development of a better precipitation data base for the Yucca Mtn. region for comparisons with models. These tasks have been completed. The third topic is preliminary assessments of future climate change. Energy balance model (EBM) simulations suggest that the greenhouse effect will likely dominate climate change at Yucca Mtn. for the next 10,000 years. The EBM study should improve rational choice of GCM CO{sub 2} scenarios for future climate change.
Global climate change has already begun
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sinclair, J.
1991-01-01
Global warning and climate change is now evident around the planet. Six of the eight warmest years on record occurred in the 1980s, while 1990 was the hottest year on record. The global imbalances seem set to worsen unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced and restoration of the earth's forests is begun
How will changes in globalization impact growth in south Asia ?
Ghani, Ejaz; Anand, Rahul
2009-01-01
The current global crisis may change globalization itself, as both developed and developing countries adjust to global imbalances that contributed to the crisis. Will these changes help or hinder economic recovery and growth in South Asia? This is the focus of this paper. The three models of globalization--trade, capital, and economic management--may not be the same in the future. Changes ...
United States policy for mitigating global climate change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bergman, P.; Kane, R.; Kildow, J.
1998-01-01
The primary objective of this paper is to explain current US policy on global climate change. US Department of Energy (DOE) efforts to implement this policy are described. A secondary objective of this paper is to discuss from a US perspective the social and political efforts which must be initiated in order for ocean storage of CO 2 to be considered as a viable CO 2 mitigation option. The fact that the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) has not been successful in reducing greenhouse gas emissions is now recognized. Thus, US policy has shifted towards the development of binding medium-term emissions targets and long-term atmosphere concentration goals. The US believes these goals can be accomplished through the adoption of cost-effective joint implementation agreements and international emissions trading mechanisms. Studies are currently underway to assess specific targets and timetables for emissions reductions. Voluntary efforts on the part of US industry have proven to be extremely successful in reducing US CO 2 -emissions. The US electric utility industry has taken the lead in voluntarily lowering greenhouse gas emissions under the DOE Climate Challenge Program. Areas of research interest to DOE include the development of high efficiency advanced power generation cycles and CO 2 sequestration technology. The US currently spends $1.6 billion on understanding global climate phenomena and only $1.6 million on CO 2 mitigation research. A number of socio-political considerations must be looked at in assessing the feasibility of ocean storage of CO 2 . Developing public trust appears to be a major concern in establishing the acceptability of ocean storage. Uncertainties in the effects of CO 2 on marine life, potential safety hazards associated with pipelining, and ship transport of CO 2 are all issues which must be dealt with as soon as possible. Some hidden costs associated with ocean disposal is also discussed
Quéré, Corinne Le; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Sitch, Stephen; Korsbakken, Jan Ivar; Peters, Glen P.; Manning, Andrew C.; Boden, Thomas A.; Tans, Pieter P.; Houghton, Richard A.;
2016-01-01
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere the global carbon budget is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1(sigma), reflecting the current capacity to characterize the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006-2015), EFF was 9
Collision and radiative processes in emission of atmospheric carbon dioxide
Smirnov, B. M.
2018-05-01
The peculiarities of the spectroscopic properties of CO2 molecules in air due to vibration-rotation radiative transitions are analyzed. The absorption coefficient due to atmospheric carbon dioxide and other atmospheric components is constructed within the framework of the standard atmosphere model, on the basis of classical molecular spectroscopy and the regular model for the spectroscopy absorption band. The radiative flux from the atmosphere toward the Earth is represented as that of a blackbody, and the radiative temperature for emission at a given frequency is determined with accounting for the local thermodynamic equilibrium, a small gradient of the tropospheric temperature and a high optical thickness of the troposphere for infrared radiation. The absorption band model with an absorption coefficient averaged over the frequency and line-by-line model are used for evaluating the radiative flux from the atmosphere to the Earth which values are nearby for these models and are equal W m‑2 for the contemporary concentration of atmospheric CO2 molecules and W m‑2 at its doubled value. The absorption band model is not suitable to calculate the radiative flux change at doubling of carbon dioxide concentration because averaging over oscillations decreases the range where the atmospheric optical thickness is of the order of one, and just this range determines this change. The line-by-line method gives the change of the global temperature K as a result of doubling the carbon dioxide concentration. The contribution to the global temperature change due to anthropogenic injection of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, i.e. resulted from combustion of fossil fuels, is approximately 0.02 K now.
Dunbar, R. B.; Scientific Team Of Odp Drilling Leg 318; Andrill Science Team
2011-12-01
Antarctic's continental ice, sea ice, and the broader Southern Ocean form a coupled and complex climate system that interacts in important yet poorly understood ways with the low and mid-latitudes. Because of its unusual sovereignty status and the fact that there is no indigenous human population, information about climate change in Antarctica penetrates the policy world less readily than findings from other regions. Yet, Antarctica's potential to impact climate change globally is disproportionately large. Vulnerable portions of the ice sheet may contribute up to 3 to 5 meters of sea level rise in the coming centuries, including significant amounts within the next 50 years. Loss of sea ice and other changes in the Southern Ocean may reduce oceanic uptake of excess atmospheric carbon dioxide, exacerbating global warming worldwide. Antarctica's impact on the Southern Hemisphere wind field is now well-established, contributing to ongoing decadal-scale perturbations in continental precipitation as well as major reorganizations of Southern Ocean food chains. Recent scientific drilling programs in the Ross Sea and off Wilkes Land, Antarctica, provide valuable insights into past climatic and biogeochemical change in Antarctica, insights of great relevance to international and national climate change policy. In this paper, we discuss polar amplification, sea level variability coupled to Antarctic ice volume, and response timescales as seen through the lens of past climate change. One key result emerging from multiple drilling programs is recognition of unanticipated dynamism in the Antarctic ice sheet during portions of the Pliocene (at a time with pCO2 levels equivalent to those anticipated late this century) as well as during "super-interglacials" of the Pleistocene. Evidence for substantially warmer ocean temperatures and reduced sea ice cover at these times suggests that polar amplification of natural climate variability, even under scenarios of relative small amounts
Global climate change and California's water resources
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vaux, H.J. Jr.
1991-01-01
This chapter records the deliberations of a group of California water experts about answers to these and other questions related to the impact of global warming on California's water resources. For the most part, those participating in the deliberations believe that the current state of scientific knowledge about global warming and its impacts on water resources is insufficient to permit hard distinctions to be made between short- and long-term changes. consequently, the ideas discussed here are based on a number of assumptions about specific climatic manifestations of global warming in California, as described earlier in this volume. Ultimately, however, effective public responses to forestall the potentially costly impacts of global climate change will probably depend upon the credible validation of the prospects of global climate warming. This chapter contains several sections. First, the likely effects of global warming on California's water resources and water-supply systems are identified and analyzed. Second, possible responses to mitigate these effects are enumerated and discussed. Third, the major policy issues are identified. A final section lists recommendations for action and major needs for information
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chris Riedy
2011-12-01
Full Text Available On 26 September 2009, approximately 4,000 citizens in 38 countries participated in World Wide Views on Global Warming (WWViews. WWViews was an ambitious first attempt to convene a deliberative mini-public at a global scale, giving people from around the world an opportunity to deliberate on international climate policy and to make recommendations to the decision-makers meeting at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (COP-15 in December 2009. In this paper, we examine the role that deliberative mini-publics can play in facilitating the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response. We pursue this intent through a reflective evaluation of the Australian component of the World Wide Views on Global Warming project (WWViews. Our evaluation of WWViews is mixed. The Australian event was delivered with integrity and feedback from Australian participants was almost universally positive. Globally, WWViews demonstrated that it is feasible to convene a global mini-public to deliberate on issues of global relevance, such as climate change. On the other hand, the contribution of WWViews towards the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response was limited and it achieved little influence on global climate change policy. We identify lessons for future global mini-publics, including the need to prioritise the quality of deliberation and provide flexibility to respond to cultural and political contexts in different parts of the world. Future global mini-publics may be more influential if they seek to represent discourse diversity in addition to demographic profiles, use designs that maximise the potential for transmission from public to empowered space, run over longer time periods to build momentum for change and experiment with ways of bringing global citizens together in a single process instead of discrete national events.
Global transport and localized layering of metallic ions in the upper atmospherer
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
L. N. Carter
Full Text Available A numerical model has been developed which is capable of simulating all phases of the life cycle of metallic ions, and results are described and interpreted herein for the typical case of Fe+ ions. This cycle begins with the initial deposition of metallics through meteor ablation and sputtering, followed by conversion of neutral Fe atoms to ions through photoionization and charge exchange with ambient ions. Global transport arising from daytime electric fields and poleward/ downward di.usion along geomagnetic field lines, localized transport and layer formation through de- scending convergent nulls in the thermospheric wind field, and finally annihilation by chemical neutralization and compound formation are treated. The model thus sheds new light on the interdependencies of the physical and chemical processes a.ecting atmospheric metallics. Model output analysis confirms the dominant role of both global and local transport to the ion's life cycle, showing that upward forcing from the equatorial electric field is critical to global movement, and that diurnal and semidiurnal tidal winds are responsible for the forma- tion of dense ion layers in the 90±250 km height region. It is demonstrated that the assumed combination of sources, chemical sinks, and transport mechanisms actually produces F-region densities and E-region layer densities similar to those observed. The model also shows that zonal and meridional winds and electric fields each play distinct roles in local transport, whereas the ion distribution is relatively insensitive to reasonable variations in meteoric deposition and chemical reaction rates.
Key words. Ionosphere (ion chemistry and composition; ionosphere-atmosphere interactions.
The US Global Change Data and Information Management Program Plan
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1992-01-01
The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) requires massive quantities of highly diverse data and information to improve our understanding of global change processes. The Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences (CEES) comprises Federal agencies that need to provide reliable data and information for this purpose from existing programs and archives and from new activities designed to improve upon the data and information. This US Global Change Data and Information Management Program Plan commits the participating Federal agencies to work with each other, with academia, and with the international community to make it as easy as possible for researchers and others to access and use global change data and information. Toward this end, the agencies are organizing a Global Change Data and Information System (GCDIS), which takes advantage of the mission resources and responsibilities of each agency. Sources for global change data and information are national and international agency programs, including those focused on the USGCRP, such as NASA's Earth Observing System [EOS] and other agency global change initiatives and those contributing to the USGCRP from other agency programs not focused on global change. Data and information include raw data from observation systems, value-added data from data assembly activities, and derived data and information from models and other investigations. Additional data and information are identified from appropriate sources including academia and the international community
A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Christopher W Woodall
Full Text Available Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C, but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and evaluated a basic risk framework which combined the magnitude of C stocks and their associated probability of stock change in the context of global change across the US. For the purposes of this analysis, forest C was divided into five pools, two live (aboveground and belowground biomass and three dead (dead wood, soil organic matter, and forest floor with a risk framework parameterized using the US's national greenhouse gas inventory and associated forest inventory data across current and projected future Köppen-Geiger climate zones (A1F1 scenario. Results suggest that an initial forest C risk matrix may be constructed to focus attention on short- and long-term risks to forest C stocks (as opposed to implementation in decision making using inventory-based estimates of total stocks and associated estimates of variability (i.e., coefficient of variation among climate zones. The empirical parameterization of such a risk matrix highlighted numerous knowledge gaps: 1 robust measures of the likelihood of forest C stock change under climate change scenarios, 2 projections of forest C stocks given unforeseen socioeconomic conditions (i.e., land-use change, and 3 appropriate social responses to global change events for which there is no contemporary climate/disturbance analog (e.g., severe droughts in the Lake States. Coupling these current technical/social limits of developing a risk matrix to the biological processes of forest ecosystems (i.e., disturbance events and interaction among diverse forest C pools, potential positive feedbacks, and forest resiliency/recovery suggests an operational
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Verburg, Peter H [Institute for Environmental Studies, Amsterdam Global Change Institute, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); Ellis, Erle C [Department of Geography and Environmental Systems, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD 21250 (United States); Letourneau, Aurelien, E-mail: Peter.Verburg@ivm.vu.nl [UMR 5175 Centre d' Ecologie Fonctionnelle and Evolutive, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 1919 Route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier cedex 5 (France)
2011-07-15
Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.
Verburg, Peter H.; Ellis, Erle C.; Letourneau, Aurelien
2011-07-01
Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Verburg, Peter H; Ellis, Erle C; Letourneau, Aurelien
2011-01-01
Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.
The state of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere using global observations through 2013
Tarasova, Oksana; Koide, Hiroshi; Dlugokencky, Ed; Montzka, Stephen A.; Keeling, Ralph; Tanhua, Toste; Lorenzoni, Laura
2015-04-01
We present results from the tenth annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/ ghg/GHGbulletin.html) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The results are based on research and observations performed by laboratories contributing to the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme (www.wmo.int/gaw). The Bulletin presents results of global analyses of observational data collected according to GAW recommended practices and submitted to the World Data Center for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG), and for the first time, it includes a summary of ocean acidification. Bulletins are prepared by the WMO/GAW Scientific Advisory Group for Greenhouse Gases (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/ScientificAdvisoryGroups.html) in collaboration with WDCGG. The summary of ocean acidification and trends in ocean pCO2 was jointly produced by the International Ocean Carbon Coordination Project (IOCCP) of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC-UNESCO), the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR), and the Ocean Acidification International Coordination Centre (OA-ICC) of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The tenth Bulletin included a special edition published prior to the United Nations Climate Summit in September 2014. The scope of this edition was to demonstrate the level of emission reduction necessary to stabilize radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases. It shows in particular that a reduction in radiative forcing from its current level (2.92 W m-2 in 2013) requires significant reductions in anthropogenic emissions of all major greenhouse gases. Observations used for global analysis are collected at more than 100 marine and terrestrial sites worldwide for CO2 and CH4 and at a smaller number of sites for other greenhouse gases. Globally averaged dry-air mole fractions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide derived from this network reached new highs in 2013, with CO2 at 396.0 ± 0.1 ppm, CH4 at
Physically-based global downscaling climate change projections for a full century
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ghan, S J; Shippert, T
2005-01-01
A global atmosphere/land model with an embedded subgrid orography scheme is used to simulate the period 1977-2100 using ocean surface conditions and radiative constituent concentrations for a climate change scenario. Climate variables simulated for multiple elevation classes are mapping according to a high-resolution elevation dataset in ten regions with complex terrain. Analysis of changes in the simulated climate leads to the following conclusions. Changes in precipitation vary widely, with precipitation increasing more with increasing altitude in some region, decreasing more with altitude in others, and changing little in still others. In some regions the sign of the precipitation change depends on surface elevation. Changes in surface air temperature are rather uniform, with at most a two-fold difference between the largest and smallest changes within a region; in most cases the warming increases with altitude. Changes in snow water are highly dependent on altitude. Absolute changes usually increase with altitude, while relative changes decrease. In places where snow accumulates, an artificial upper bound on snow water limits the sensitivity of snow water to climate change considerably. The simulated impact of climate change on regional mean snow water varies widely, with little impact in regions in which the upper bound on snow water is the dominant snow water sink, moderate impact in regions with a mixture of seasonal and permanent snow, and profound impacts on regions with little permanent snow
Greenhouse gas emissions increase global warming
Mohajan, Haradhan
2011-01-01
This paper discusses the greenhouse gas emissions which cause the global warming in the atmosphere. In the 20th century global climate change becomes more sever which is due to greenhouse gas emissions. According to International Energy Agency data, the USA and China are approximately tied and leading global emitters of greenhouse gas emissions. Together they emit approximately 40% of global CO2 emissions, and about 35% of total greenhouse gases. The developed and developing industrialized co...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vidal, O.; Gimeno, L.; Ribera, P. [Vigo Univ., Orense (Spain). Dept. of Applied Physics; Garcia, R.; Hernandez, E.; Gallego, D. [Complutense Univ., Madrid (Spain). Dept. of Atmospheric Physics
2001-07-01
The advection of temperature (AT) at three different pressure levels was calculated for the period of 1958 to 1998 to test the hypothesis that the origin global temperature increase during the past decade was caused by changes in global circulation. The relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global temperature has been widely studied. They have a common oscillation in the bands of 2 and 4 years. The Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) may also account for regional surface warming over Europe and Asia and for cooling over the northwestern Atlantic. Important correlations were found between most of the Northern Hemisphere and Global AT series with the Arctic Oscillation and between most of the Southern Hemisphere and Global AT series with the Antarctic Oscillation. Poor correlations were found with El Nino-Southern Oscillation even for belts between 0 and 30 degrees and for the lower troposphere. 8 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Smith, K.A.; Dobbie, K.E.; Ball, B.C.
2000-01-01
to the oxidation. The effect of temperature was small, attributed to substrate limitation and low atmospheric concentration. Analysis of all available data for CH4 oxidation rates in situ showed similar log-normal distributions to those obtained for our results, with generally little difference between different......This paper reports the range and statistical distribution of oxidation rates of atmospheric CH4 in soils found in Northern Europe in an international study, and compares them with published data for various other ecosystems. It reassesses the size, and the uncertainty in, the global terrestrial CH4...... sink, and examines the effect of land-use change and other factors on the oxidation rate. Only soils with a very high water table were sources of CH4; all others were sinks. Oxidation rates varied from 1 to nearly 200 µg CH4 m-2 h-1; annual rates for sites measured for =1 y were 0.1-9.1 kg CH4 ha-1 y-1...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Paudel, Rajendra; Mahowald, Natalie M; Hess, Peter G M; Meng, Lei; Riley, William J
2016-01-01
An understanding of potential factors controlling methane emissions from natural wetlands is important to accurately project future atmospheric methane concentrations. Here, we examine the relative contributions of climatic and environmental factors, such as precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO 2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, wetland inundation extent, and land-use and land-cover change, on changes in wetland methane emissions from preindustrial to present day (i.e., 1850–2005). We apply a mechanistic methane biogeochemical model integrated in the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5), the land component of the Community Earth System Model. The methane model explicitly simulates methane production, oxidation, ebullition, transport through aerenchyma of plants, and aqueous and gaseous diffusion. We conduct a suite of model simulations from 1850 to 2005, with all changes in environmental factors included, and sensitivity studies isolating each factor. Globally, we estimate that preindustrial methane emissions were higher by 10% than present-day emissions from natural wetlands, with emissions changes from preindustrial to the present of +15%, −41%, and −11% for the high latitudes, temperate regions, and tropics, respectively. The most important change is due to the estimated change in wetland extent, due to the conversion of wetland areas to drylands by humans. This effect alone leads to higher preindustrial global methane fluxes by 33% relative to the present, with the largest change in temperate regions (+80%). These increases were partially offset by lower preindustrial emissions due to lower CO 2 levels (10%), shifts in precipitation (7%), lower nitrogen deposition (3%), and changes in land-use and land-cover (2%). Cooler temperatures in the preindustrial regions resulted in our simulations in an increase in global methane emissions of 6% relative to present day. Much of the sensitivity to these perturbations is mediated in the model by
Korbacz, A.; Brzeziński, A.; Thomas, M.
2008-04-01
We use new estimates of the global atmospheric and oceanic angular momenta (AAM, OAM) to study the influence on LOD/UT1. The AAM series was calculated from the output fields of the atmospheric general circulation model ERA-40 reanalysis. The OAM series is an outcome of global ocean model OMCT simulation driven by global fields of the atmospheric parameters from the ERA- 40 reanalysis. The excitation data cover the period between 1963 and 2001. Our calculations concern atmospheric and oceanic effects in LOD/UT1 over the periods between 20 days and decades. Results are compared to those derived from the alternative AAM/OAM data sets.
Understanding Global Change: Tools for exploring Earth processes and biotic change through time
Bean, J. R.; White, L. D.; Berbeco, M.
2014-12-01
Teaching global change is one of the great pedagogical challenges of our day because real understanding entails integrating a variety of concepts from different scientific subject areas, including chemistry, physics, and biology, with a variety of causes and impacts in the past, present, and future. With the adoption of the Next Generation Science Standards, which emphasize climate change and other human impacts on natural systems, there has never been a better time to provide instructional support to educators on these topics. In response to this clear need, the University of California Museum of Paleontology, in collaboration with the National Center for Science Education, developed a new web resource for teachers and students titled "Understanding Global Change" (UGC) that introduces the drivers and impacts of global change. This website clarifies the connections among deep time, modern Earth system processes, and anthropogenic influences, and provides K-16 instructors with a wide range of easy-to-use tools, strategies, and lesson plans for communicating these important concepts regarding global change and the basic Earth systems processes. In summer 2014, the UGC website was field-tested during a workshop with 25 K-12 teachers and science educators. Feedback from participants helped the UGC team develop and identify pedagogically sound lesson plans and instructional tools on global change. These resources are accessible through UGC's searchable database, are aligned with NGSS and Common Core, and are categorized by grade level, subject, and level of inquiry-based instruction (confirmation, structured, guided, open). Providing a range of content and tools at levels appropriate for teachers is essential because our initial needs assessment found that educators often feel that they lack the content knowledge and expertise to address complex, but relevant global change issues, such as ocean acidification and deforestation. Ongoing needs assessments and surveys of
Dynamical Analysis of the Global Warming
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. A. Tenreiro Machado
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Global warming is a major concern nowadays. Weather conditions are changing, and it seems that human activity is one of the main causes. In fact, since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels has increased the nonnatural emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that absorbs the infrared radiation produced by the reflection of the sunlight on the Earth’s surface, trapping the heat in the atmosphere. Global warming and the associated climate changes are being the subject of intensive research due to their major impact on social, economic, and health aspects of human life. This paper studies the global warming trend in the perspective of dynamical systems and fractional calculus, which is a new standpoint in this context. Worldwide distributed meteorological stations and temperature records for the last 100 years are analysed. It is shown that the application of Fourier transforms and power law trend lines leads to an assertive representation of the global warming dynamics and a simpler analysis of its characteristics.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
H. Riede
2009-12-01
Full Text Available We present a novel method for the quantification of transport, chemistry, and mixing along atmospheric trajectories based on a consistent model hierarchy. The hierarchy consists of the new atmospheric-chemistry trajectory-box model CAABA/MJT and the three-dimensional (3-D global ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric-chemistry (EMAC general circulation model. CAABA/MJT employs the atmospheric box model CAABA in a configuration using the atmospheric-chemistry submodel MECCA (M, the photochemistry submodel JVAL (J, and the new trajectory submodel TRAJECT (T, to simulate chemistry along atmospheric trajectories, which are provided offline. With the same chemistry submodels coupled to the 3-D EMAC model and consistent initial conditions and physical parameters, a unique consistency between the two models is achieved. Since only mixing processes within the 3-D model are excluded from the model consistency, comparisons of results from the two models allow to separate and quantify contributions of transport, chemistry, and mixing along the trajectory pathways. Consistency of transport between the trajectory-box model CAABA/MJT and the 3-D EMAC model is achieved via calculation of kinematic trajectories based on 3-D wind fields from EMAC using the trajectory model LAGRANTO. The combination of the trajectory-box model CAABA/MJT and the trajectory model LAGRANTO can be considered as a Lagrangian chemistry-transport model (CTM moving isolated air parcels. The procedure for obtaining the necessary statistical basis for the quantification method is described as well as the comprehensive diagnostics with respect to chemistry.
The quantification method presented here allows to investigate the characteristics of transport, chemistry, and mixing in a grid-based 3-D model. The analysis of chemical processes within the trajectory-box model CAABA/MJT is easily extendable to include, for example, the impact of different transport pathways or of mixing processes onto
Bassiri, Sassan; Hajj, George A.
1993-01-01
Natural and man-made events like earthquakes and nuclear explosions launch atmospheric gravity waves (AGW) into the atmosphere. Since the particle density decreases exponentially with height, the gravity waves increase exponentially in amplitude as they propagate toward the upper atmosphere and ionosphere. As atmospheric gravity waves approach the ionospheric heights, the neutral particles carried by gravity waves collide with electrons and ions, setting these particles in motion. This motion of charged particles manifests itself by wave-like fluctuations and disturbances that are known as traveling ionospheric disturbances (TID). The perturbation in the total electron content due to TID's is derived analytically from first principles. Using the tilted dipole magnetic field approximation and a Chapman layer distribution for the electron density, the variations of the total electron content versus the line-of-sight direction are numerically analyzed. The temporal variation associated with the total electron content measurements due to AGW's can be used as a means of detecting characteristics of the gravity waves. As an example, detection of tsunami generated earthquakes from their associated atmospheric gravity waves using the Global Positioning System is simulated.
Biomass Burning: The Cycling of Gases and Particulates from the Biosphere to the Atmosphere
Levine, J. S.
2003-12-01
Biomass burning is both a process of geochemical cycling of gases and particulates from the biosphere to the atmosphere and a process of global change. In the preface to the book, One Earth, One Future: Our Changing Global Environment (National Academy of Sciences, 1990), Dr. Frank Press, the President of the National Academy of Sciences, writes: "Human activities are transforming the global environment, and these global changes have many faces: ozone depletion, tropical deforestation, acid deposition, and increased atmospheric concentrations of gases that trap heat and may warm the global climate."It is interesting to note that all four global change "faces" identified by Dr. Press have a common thread - they are all caused by biomass burning.Biomass burning or vegetation burning is the burning of living and dead vegetation and includes human-initiated burning and natural lightning-induced burning. The bulk of the world's biomass burning occurs in the tropics - in the tropical forests of South America and Southeast Asia and in the savannasof Africa and South America. The majority of the biomass burning, primarily in the tropics (perhaps as much as 90%), is believed to be human initiated for land clearing and land-use change. Natural fires triggered by atmospheric lightning only accounts for ˜10% of all fires (Andreae, 1991). As will be discussed, a significant amount of biomass burning occurs in the boreal forests of Russia, Canada, and Alaska.Biomass burning is a significant source of gases and particulates to the regional and global atmosphere (Crutzen et al., 1979; Seiler and Crutzen, 1980; Crutzen and Andreae, 1990; Levine et al., 1995). Its burning is truly a multidiscipline subject, encompassing the following areas: fire ecology, fire measurements, fire modeling, fire combustion, remote sensing, fire combustion gaseous and particulate emissions, the atmospheric transport of these emissions, and the chemical and climatic impacts of these emissions. Recently
Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Sitch, Stephen; Pongratz, Julia; Manning, Andrew C.; Korsbakken, Jan Ivar; Peters, Glen P.; Canadell, Josep G.; Jackson, Robert B.; Boden, Thomas A.; Tans, Pieter P.; Andrews, Oliver D.; Arora, Vivek K.; Bakker, Dorothee C. E.; Barbero, Leticia; Becker, Meike; Betts, Richard A.; Bopp, Laurent; Chevallier, Frédéric; Chini, Louise P.; Ciais, Philippe; Cosca, Catherine E.; Cross, Jessica; Currie, Kim; Gasser, Thomas; Harris, Ian; Hauck, Judith; Haverd, Vanessa; Houghton, Richard A.; Hunt, Christopher W.; Hurtt, George; Ilyina, Tatiana; Jain, Atul K.; Kato, Etsushi; Kautz, Markus; Keeling, Ralph F.; Klein Goldewijk, Kees; Körtzinger, Arne; Landschützer, Peter; Lefèvre, Nathalie; Lenton, Andrew; Lienert, Sebastian; Lima, Ivan; Lombardozzi, Danica; Metzl, Nicolas; Millero, Frank; Monteiro, Pedro M. S.; Munro, David R.; Nabel, Julia E. M. S.; Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro; Nojiri, Yukihiro; Padin, X. Antonio; Peregon, Anna; Pfeil, Benjamin; Pierrot, Denis; Poulter, Benjamin; Rehder, Gregor; Reimer, Janet; Rödenbeck, Christian; Schwinger, Jörg; Séférian, Roland; Skjelvan, Ingunn; Stocker, Benjamin D.; Tian, Hanqin; Tilbrook, Bronte; Tubiello, Francesco N.; van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T.; van der Werf, Guido R.; van Heuven, Steven; Viovy, Nicolas; Vuichard, Nicolas; Walker, Anthony P.; Watson, Andrew J.; Wiltshire, Andrew J.; Zaehle, Sönke; Zhu, Dan
2018-03-01
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere - the global carbon budget - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007-2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr-1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr-1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr-1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr-1, with a small BIM of -0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007-2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND
Climate-related global changes in the southern Caribbean. Trinidad and Tobago
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Singh, Bhawan [Department of Geography, University of Montreal, Montreal, QU (Canada)
1997-10-30
A climate change deriving from the atmospheric build up of greenhouse gases (GHG) is supposed to become evident by the middle of the next century. This GHG-induced climate change would supposedly lead to a global warming of about 2 to 4C and a rise in mean sea level of about 60 cm towards the end of the next century. This study focuses on the field measurements and interpretations of a number of, supposedly, climate-driven regional changes, including shifts in climate and hydrology, coastal erosion and sedimentation, salinisation of coastal aquifers and estuaries, and also coral bleaching, in Trinidad and Tobago, in the southern Caribbean. The results show significant changes and shifts in temperature and rainfall, severe coastal erosion, approaching 2 to 4m per year for certain beaches, appreciable salinisation of a number of coastal aquifers and an estuary along the Caroni swamp, in Trinidad, and what appears to be partial coral bleaching, at the Culloden Reef in Tobago. These field-observed regional changes may conceivably be interpreted as early signals of a GHG-induced climate change. However, in view of the uncertainty surrounding GHG-induced climate change and sea level rise and the limitations of our data, especially the length of record, caution must be exercised in the interpretation of these results